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Hermine Hits Florida, Heads Towards Mid-Atlantic

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 4:35 PM GMT on September 02, 2016

Now a tropical storm, Hurricane Hermine hit the coast of Florida near St. Marks at approximately 1:30 am EDT Friday, September 2, 2016, as a Category 1 storm with sustained winds of 80 mph. Hermine was Florida’s first hurricane strike in nearly eleven years, since Hurricane Wilma of October 2005, and was the first hurricane to strike the U.S. since Hurricane Arthur hit North Carolina on July 3, 2014 as a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds. One death is being blamed on Hermine so far, due to a falling tree in Marion County, about 150 miles southeast of where the center of the storm made landfall. As of 11 am EDT Friday, Hermine was located inland about 50 miles west-southwest of Savannah, GA, moving northeast at 18 mph. Hermine’s top sustained winds were down to 50 mph.


Figure 1. Radar image of Hurricane Hermine from the Tallahassee, Florida radar near the time of landfall, at 1:16 am EDT September 2, 2016.

Hermine brings a storm surge of 7.5’ to Cedar Key
Hermine brought a storm surge in excess of three feet to over 200 miles of the Florida Gulf Coast, from Apalachicola to Tampa Bay. The highest storm surge observed at any tide gage was 7.5’ at Cedar Key, Florida. The water level (storm tide, which includes storm surge and tide) rose to 7.64’ above mean sea level at 1:36 am EDT September 2; according to a Friday blog post by storm surge expert Dr. Hal Needham, this was the 5th highest water level since records began in 1880 at Cedar Key, and the highest in 23 years—since the Superstorm of March 1993. Hermine brought a maximum storm surge of approximately 4.2’ to Apalalchicola, 3.7’ at Tampa and 3.5’ at St. Petersburg. Late Friday morning, the storm surge from Hermine was still more than two feet high from Cedar Key to Tampa, and had built to one foot at Charleston, South Carolina.


Figure 2. Still frame from a September 1, 2016 Weather Channel Facebook video of the Cedar Key storm surge.


Figure 3. A street is blocked from debris washed up from the tidal surge of Hurricane Hermine Friday, Sept. 2, 2016, in Cedar Key, Florida. AP Photo/John Raoux.

High winds from Hermine cause widespread power outages
Hermine struck a relatively unpopulated stretch of the Florida coast with few observation sites. The strongest winds on land appear to have been at a Personal Weather Station (PWS) at Alligator Point, Florida in the northern eyewall of Hermine: sustained winds of 59 mph, gusting to 78 mph, at 10:25 pm EDT September 1, 2016. This station experienced the calm of the eye for over 50 minutes; it is interesting to see the upward spike in temperature of 3°F that occurred in the eye just after midnight. The highest winds at an offshore site were measured at Tyndall AFB Tower C, located about 20 miles south of Apalachicola, Florida: sustained winds of 61 mph, gusting to 79 mph, at 8:50 pm EDT. The anemometer on the tower is at an elevation of 35 meters, which is higher than the standard 10 meters used to reference surface winds, so these winds need to be scaled down to what they would be at a height of 10 meters for a valid comparison to other surface wind measurements. There were no measurements of hurricane-force surface winds during Hermine’s life, except by the Hurricane Hunters. Hermine’s strong winds brought down large numbers of trees, and about 253,000 customers were without power at the height of the storm on Friday morning in Florida. An additional 70,000 customers lost power in Georgia.


Figure 4. Observed rainfall for the 1-day period ending at 8 am EDT Friday, September 2, 2016. Hermine brought 24-hour rainfall amounts of 6+ inches to portions of northern Florida and Southern Georgia. The highest storm-total rainfall amounts over a 4-day period were near the Tampa Bay, Florida region; 18.89” fell at Baskin and 14.60” at Largo, just north of St. Petersburg. Hermine’s rains mostly missed Florida’s Lake Okeechobee region; on Thursday, the Army Corps of Engineers decided that the lake’s vulnerable dike is safe at the current water level, and elected not to increase the amount of polluted water released from the lake into its outflow canals that lead to the ocean. In May and June, large releases of Lake Okeechobee water to relieve pressure on the dike caused massive algae blooms and serious water quality issues along both coasts of Florida. Image credit: NWS/AHPS.

Extremely high moisture available to Hermine
Near record-warm ocean temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are evaporating near-record amounts of water vapor into the atmosphere for Hermine to feed off of, and this moisture-laden air is surging northeastwards with Hermine. At 8 am EDT Friday, the upper-air balloon sounding at Charleston, South Carolina measured 2.60” of total precipitable water (TPW)—the amount of water that would result if one condensed all the water vapor in a column above and precipitated it out. This value ranked as the 9th highest TPW measurement of the 47,000+ balloon soundings taken at the site since 1948. On Thursday, Tampa, Florida measured its 2nd highest TPW measurement on record: 2.80”, during a special 2 pm EDT balloon sounding.

Correction: We reported earlier that an astonishing 3.25" of TPW was recorded this morning at the upper air sounding site at Nassua in the Bahamas--more than 5 standard deviations above normal. This reading was based on a daily summary prepared by the National Weather Service. However, Brian Brettschneider pointed out that this must be an error, since the site's previous highest TPW was only 2.8", and a cross check of sounding data from the University of Wyoming reveals that the TPW at Nassau this morning was actually 1.60".

The forecast for Hermine: Major storm impacts still to come
As of Friday morning, Tropical Storm Warnings extended up the Atlantic coast to Virginia, with Tropical Storm Watches now extending all the way to the Connecticut coast and all of Long Island, New York, including the New York metropolitan area. Hermine will continue rolling along or near the Southeast coast on Friday, gradually weakening before it emerges off North Carolina’s Outer Banks on Saturday. By that point, Hermine will have undergone at least a partial conversion into an extratropical (post-tropical storm), deriving energy from atmospheric dynamics rather than from the heat energy of the ocean. By later in the weekend, however, Hermine may again be resembling a tropical cyclone, as upper-level winds along its path weaken and upper-level ridging to its west, north, and east blocks its path.

Computer models are in agreement that Hermine will slow down Sunday into Monday in the Atlantic east of Delaware and south of Long Island, NY, roughly 150 to 200 miles offshore. The models suggest that Hermine may even carry out one or two tight cyclonic loops in this area. From Sunday morning through Wednesday morning, the official NHC forecast moves Hermine only about 200 miles to the northeast—an average motion of only 3 mph.


Figure 3. The official track forecast for Hurricane Hermine as of 11 pm EDT Thursday. Hermine’s dramatic slowdown is evident in the period from Sunday to Tuesday.

On Sunday, Hermine will be positioned near the north edge of the Gulf Stream, with SSTs of 27-28°C (81-82°F). These are more than 2°C above average for this time of year and more than adequate to support tropical development, regardless of whether Hermine is classified as a tropical or post-tropical storm by that point. As shown above, the 11 am EDT Friday outlook from NHC increases Hermine’s winds to the Category 1 threshold of 65 knots (75 mph) on Monday morning, with the center about 150 miles east of the Maryland shore. Hermine will likely weaken only gradually after that point, as it spins and crawls over the next several days. (Note that even if Hermine does become post-tropical, NHC will continue issuing advisories on Hermine as long as it remains a significant threat to land.)


Figure X. Sea surface temperatures for the last week of August 2016 (left) and departures from normal for the time of year (right), both in degrees C. Image credit: NOAA/NHC.


Torrential rains were pushing northward from Georgia to North Carolina on Friday morning, extending from the coast up to 200 miles inland. Flash flood watches are in effect from Georgia to Virginia along a belt northwest of tropical storm warnings. Rains of 4” - 8” totals will be widespread through this area, especially close to the coast. The dry weather in recent weeks will help tamp down the risk of large-scale flooding, although flash floods are still a risk whenever very heavy rain falls in a short amount of time. Rains of 1” - 5” and gusty winds will work their way up the Delaware and New Jersey coastlines from Saturday into Sunday, with the heaviest rains perhaps staying just offshore of the New York coast. There will likely be a sharp cutoff on the western side of the heaviest rain, so travelers and residents should be aware that a journey of just 50 miles or so toward or away from the coast could produce big changes in the weather you experience. Along with high surf, rip current risk will be high across many beaches for the next several days.

Major impacts possible on Mid-Atlantic and Northeast shoreline
Hermine is shaping up to be a prolonged, high-impact event for coastlines from Delaware to Massachusetts. As the center moves very slowly, Hermine will push vast amounts of water toward beaches, bays, and inlets. The winds and seas rotating around Hermine will have the greatest impact along the coast of central and northern New Jersey, Long Island, and Long Island Sound—the same areas hit hardest by Hurricane Sandy in 2012. Because Hermine is much weaker than Sandy and will not be plowing onshore as Sandy did, the highest water levels along the immediate coast are expected to stay well below the Sandy peaks, and coastal winds will be considerably less. However, because Hermine will be positioned offshore for several days, there will be a cumulative impact from relentless, battering waves and swells, and beach erosion could be severe. In addition, water will pile up in back bays over multiple tidal cycles, producing a prolonged rise in water levels and the potential for significant flooding in those areas.


Figure X. Although Tropical Storm Hermine is expected to remain off the mid-Atlantic coast, it will still generate large storm surge to its north and west. Guidance from the NOAA ESTOFS model indicates that the storm surge from Hermine could reach or exceed 4 - 5 feet on Sunday night along most of the New Jersey coast, the western Long Island coast, and western Long Island sound. Tides could either add or subtract as much as 2 - 3 feet to this total. This map is not an official forecast of storm surge or local impacts, since the timing and intensity of any storm surge is likely to evolve over the next several days. Image credit: NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.


Based on the GFS model forecast, NOAA’s ESTOFS storm surge model projects that a storm surge greater than 5 feet is possible along parts of the New Jersey coast at the western end of Long Island Sound late Sunday (see graphic). If this occurred at high tide, it could produce total water heights of more than 7 feet above sea level, which would be comparable to the expected surge impact of a Category 1 hurricane in the western sound, which adjoins low-lying LaGuardia International Airport.

The record surge from Sandy was in a class by itself, and Hermine will not cause the massive destruction of homes and businesses that Sandy did. However, in some locations, Hermine’s surge could be on par with levels observed in other noteworthy hurricanes and extratropical storms, including Hurricane Irene of 2011. This could lead to extensive disruption of everyday life in coastal areas of New Jersey and New York. The exact surge impact and the hardest-hit locations will depend on Hermine’s exact track and intensity Sunday and Monday, which are still too far away to pin down. It’s important to note that this surge-related flooding could easily occur even if the heaviest rains from Hermine remain just offshore, so residents may be at risk even where it hasn’t rained much. On Friday morning, the New York NWS cautioned that “Moderate to possibly major coastal flooding is probable” during high tide as early as midday Sunday, with storm surge of 3-5 feet atop high tide in western Long Island Sound and New York Harbor. The storm surge from Hurricane Irene in New York Harbor (omitting the tide) was 3.8 feet. Those living or traveling in flood-prone areas should keep abreast of NWS local statements on Hermine and heed any and all evacuation advice from local officials.

Weakening Gaston heads through the western Azores
A Tropical Storm Warning is up for the islands of the western and Central Azores as Tropical Storm Gaston speeds east-northeast at 18 mph through the western Azores. Down to just 70 mph winds as of 11 am EDT Friday, Gaston is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the western and central Azores through Saturday, when it is expected to become post-tropical. On Wednesday morning, Gaston peaked as an impressive Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds, becoming the season’s only major hurricane in the Atlantic thus far. The Azores only averages one hurricane strike per decade, and has already seen one this year: 2016’s first Atlantic storm, Hurricane Alex, which struck the island of Terceira in the central Azores on January 15 as a bizarrely out-of-season tropical storm in January. Alex did minimal damage and caused no direct deaths.


Figure X. Infrared satellite image of Hurricane Lester as of 1445Z (10:45 am EDT and 4:45 am HST) Friday, September 2, 2016.

Hurricane Watch continues for Hawaii ahead of Category 2 Lester
It’s quite rare to have two separate parts of the United States threatened by two hurricanes at the same time. So it was on Thursday night, with Hurricane Lester continuing to bear down on Hawaii. A hurricane watch is now in effect for the islands of Maui, Molokai, Lanai, Kahoolawe, and Oahu, including the Honolulu area. The Big Island has been dropped from this watch, since Lester is now too far north for its west-northwest track to affect the island.

As of 11 am EDT Friday (5:00 am HST), Lester was about 435 miles east of Hilo. Lester is now a Category 2 storm, with top sustained winds down to 110 mph as Lester travels over waters churned up by Hurricane Madeline just a couple of days ago. Computer models continue to agree on taking Lester along a west-northwest path that will parallel the Hawaiian island chain on Saturday, most likely as a Category 1 hurricane. The model guidance is now in fairly close and consistent agreement on a track just north of the islands, but the nearness of that track—perhaps within 100 miles—is enough to require continued vigilance. Huge surf can be expected regardless of the exact track. If Lester stays north as expected, the islands will be on its weaker left-hand side, reducing the chance of any major impact.

Invest 92L trying to organize in tropical Atlantic
Satellite images show that shower activity has increased in association with a large tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles islands. Originally designated Invest 92L on Monday, this wave was no longer deemed worthy by NHC as an “Invest”, and they stopped issuing their suite of model forecasts for the system Tuesday through Thursday. The tropical wave was embedded in a major area of dust and dry air from the Sahara Desert, which was preventing development. However, on Friday morning, NHC resumed their interest in this system, and the latest SHIPS model forecast for 92L shows low wind shear and warm SSTs for the next five days, favorable for development, as it moves west at 10 - 15 mph. The latest 0Z Friday runs of our three top models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis--the GFS, European and UKMET models—did not show development of the system over the next five days, and the large region of dry air that 92L is embedded in will keep any development slow. A strong and persistent ridge of high pressure should keep 92L on a fairly straightforward west to west-northwest path, and the storm will likely move through the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday, and be near Hispaniola on Monday or Tuesday. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC kept their 2-day and 5-day development odds at 10% and 20%, respectively.

We’ll be back with our next update by midday Saturday.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

IMG_6973.JPG
IMG_6973.JPG
Between The Bands of Hermine
Between The Bands of Hermine
Tonight, right around 6:30pm. The University of FL officially closed at 4pm, allowing staff and students to return home or to their dorms and apartments safely. The first real active band showed up around 4pm. This is Butler Plaza, right off Archer Road. The reflection of the palms caught my eye as I was backing the car out. Hermine officially made it to the Hurricane stage.
between the bands
between the bands

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 500. Icybubba:

Is there any documented events where a winter storm became a tropical cyclone? Probably not, but hey figure I would ask
The Halloween Nor'easter of 1991 did a loop over the gulf current and formed a Hurricane in the center.
Technically not winter (Oct-Nov) but close enough
Link
Quoting 487. Krycek1984:



Oh get over yourself. Lot of people here love the weather and tropical systems, can't help but get excited about it.

Guess you haven't had to live thru one or seven. Not fun j/s
The first strong rains and squalls associated with Hurricane Hermine at
Carrollwood, Tampa, Florida. This was a short clip because as you can
see, the rain was soaking the camera. 9/1/2016  6:35 pm
Copy N Paste the link because I tried putting a direct link and also tried the embed but none worked
https://youtu.be/mHD6-uehkkU




Quoting 503. Patrap:



Hermine was very impressive right before landfall
Quoting 495. unknowncomic:

Good thing the first FSU football game was scheduled elsewhere.

yup - roll tide (I mean the beach kind...don't want to get off topic ;-))
Y'know, one of my pet peeves about this blog sometimes is that some try to take a moral high ground over someone else's views on certain subjects.
Quoting 501. Methurricanes:

The Halloween Nor'easter of 1991 did a loop over the gulf current and formed a Hurricane in the center.

Huh, weird
We're getting gusts now in the 50's at Atlantic Beach, NC. Thankfully low tide is at 3:30 am.
Quoting 451. odinslightning:



FEMA gets blamed for Katrina because so many people that were flooded because of Katrina did NOT have NFIP insurance.

NFIP, the National Flood Insurance Program, is a bureaucracy under the bureaucratic umbrella of FEMA, but it is not FEMA's or NFIP's fault that people didn't have flood coverage before Katrina.  Just like it is not FEMA's fault or NFIP's fault that people didn't have flood coverage in the areas flooded by Superstorm Sandy.

It is not the job of the federal government to come to flood stricken areas and rebuild people's houses for free on the taxpayers dime.  There is no excuse for a homeowner to not have flood insurance.  Floods can happen ANYWHERE, or about anywhere, period!

a sewer backup caused by faulty pipes that causes damage to 2 acres and/or 2 adjacent structures that qualify as a structure as per the NFIP flood policy is considered a flood.  Floods can happen about anywhere given the meteorological conditions are right.   NFIP defines a flood as either/or both at least 2 acres of land that is inundated with flood waters, or 2 adjacent properties that have covered property (structures that are qualified in other parts of the flood policy) are either partially or fully inundated with flood waters.  Just because a property isn't in a designated flood zone (which are drawn and computed based on rising waters of rivers, bodies of water, oceans, seas, creeks, inlets, etc etc etc) does not mean that it wont ever be damaged by flood peril.  the only reason that the designated NFIP flood zone map exists is to identify and insure properties that are known to be in an area in which, within a 100 year period, will be flooded due to either man-made or natural cause(s).  the FIRM map exists to designate which properties MUST have flood coverage if it is partially owned by a mortgage company, not to designate where floods can only happen.

please don't take me wrong, i am not mad at you.  i partially blame the biased mainstream media who distort facts and make people out to be victims, and i fully blame the people that did not insure their property(ies) prior to a flood.  Even if you are not in a qualifying flood zone you can purchase flood insurance.  In fact, people that are not in a designated NFIP flood zone are offered PREFERRED flood policies, which are at REPLACEMENT COST and are only a couple of hundred dollars per year for up to  $250,000.00 of coverage for a dwelling or up to $500,000 for a commercial building or dwelling that does not qualify as a single-family or dual family home.  The premium rates for preferred flood policies is pennies on the dollar compared to what people in designated flood zones pay.


also, do not blame FEMA or NFIP for the fiasco that is now occurring in Louisiana.  less than 20% of homeowners that are in the flood-stricken areas of Louisiana had purchased flood insurance.  They knew they lived on the gulf coast, they knew that they lived in the swamp.  They saw 1st hand what happened to people in New Orleans, yet they chose to pass up the opportunity to purchase flood insurance because it wasn't mandated by the bank that finances their mortgage or because they thought they didn't need it.  Many of them had purchased flood insurance in the few years following Katrina, but overtime disconnect with memories and the drought of landfalling storms led most of them to drop their flood coverage because they thought it was a waste of money.

i know you guys understand meteorology much more than i do, but in turn i know way more about insurance than you do.  do not believe everything you hear in the media, regardless if they are right or left of center.  facts are facts, and people need to be responsible enough to hedge a bet with 200-300 bucks a year to protect their property(ies) that are worth $100's of thousands, if not millions of dollars.


just wanted to clarify that.  remember, it is not the responsibility of the federal government, FEMA, or NFIP to hand out free money to property owners who chose to not insure against flood.

also, do not confuse FEMA with NFIP.  FEMA is a large organization that offers disaster relief in the form of temporary housing, food, water, clothes, soap, etc to help people cope with the time shock of a major disaster.  just because the federal government made the NFIP bureaucracy under the umbrella of the FEMA bureaucracy does not mean that FEMA sells flood insurance, and regardless if people say FEMA or NFIP are to blame for people not having flood coverage they are wrong, period!



Ok, I know you are a cat adjuster, but this is laced with so much BS, I can't let it slide.

For the record, over the last decade I did nothing but defend WYO carriers nationwide. I worked for the firm that handled over 95% of all flood related litigation, from coast to coast. From Katrina to Sandy and everything inbetween.

#1, Katrina. New Orleans had a very high rate of insured dwellings. FEMA's blunders were not related to uninsured residents of New Orleans. They were related to their overall response to a national disaster of epic proportions. It it what FEMA did not do immediately after New Orleans went under water that tarnished their reputation, and how they absolutely screwed the pooch on the Mississippi coast.

#2, read your SFIP. Specifically Article II(A)(1), which defines an actual flood. Then read article V(5)(a-c), which covers exclusions for the backup of water through sewers, drains, sumps, etc. A broken water main is not a flood. The 2 acre definition is not that simple.

#3. You don't really know what the circumstances were in many of these 20% insured areas, like Denham Springs. But, I do. What happened in many of these areas was the builders came in an dumped fill on A zones, and then requested LOMAs (Letter(s) Of Map Amendment) to get the houses into X zones and make them attractive for sales. Then, they had a FIRM change in 2012, and these builders applied for revalidations of the LOMAs. In many instances, these properties were mere inches, INCHES high enough to get an X zone rating. People buy flood insurance when they are required to. They are typically not savvy enough, nor aware enough to go read a FIRM map. They buy a house, they are told they are not in a flood zone, and they elect not to buy insurance. It is as simple as that. FEMA is not handing out nearly enough for anyone to rebuild, so stop trying to blame these people...when many of them were victimized.

Do, I agree with you that people should have bought PRPs for peanuts? Yes. And, had these people known they were likely to flood...they would have. Personally, I think if you live in Louisiana, you should have a policy. But, I have talked to literally dozens of uninsured people in the last couple of weeks and the story is always the same.....
The MDR is looking pretty good :)
Quoting 504. WeatherfanPR:

The first strong rains and squalls associated with Hurricane Hermine at
Carrollwood, Tampa, Florida. This was a short clip because as you can
see, the rain was soaking the camera. 9/1/2016  6:35 pm





link?
Quoting 503. Patrap:




A cv seed that coulda and woulda, given more time. I'd say FL spared a bullet!
Quoting 510. CaribBoy:




Enjoy!

Quoting 513. Gearsts:

link?

Copy N Paste the link because I tried puttin a direct link and also tried the embed but none worked
https://youtu.be/mHD6-uehkkU

Quoting 502. geepy86:


Guess you haven't had to live thru one or seven. Not fun j/s
It is not fun, but I still get excited. I'm sure I'm twisted. Been through many on Mississippi Coast.
Quoting 480. win1gamegiantsplease:



It's best not to ask questions about that ;)

Although I would bet 99% of the main posters want to see tropical cyclone formation, me included. They're amazing to watch and their effects are just another reminder of the power mother nature has. Not that I would wish one on my worst enemy; maybe the cowboys or eagles...


I'm just glad that Alabama and USC are playing on there field Saturday.
It will be the only time the "End Zones" will see any action....
J/s

Taco :o)


Ridiculous
Tides, here,have finally dropped. Might be able to go out and do some investigating. Really worried for Manasota Key, though I'd say, without a doubt, Colin brought worst conditions. I think they got lucky out there, from what I've seen so far. God forbid we get any kind of actual,direct strike. It's fragile right now. They seriously need to consider opening that pass back up. Nature is going to do it for them and (for locals,) we'll be paying the bill. It would solve a lot of current problems. Absolutely, the key is in worse shape than after the '05 season. The reality should be, this isn't a safe place to reside. I don't feel comfortable paying taxes to support an effort (multi-millions), to save a few houses that shouldn't be there anyway. The underlying rock obviously supports a pass flowing there. During Colin, it didn't come too far from opening back up. The road there is really the only obstacle. In Colin, it breached the roadway and spilled a lot of water and sand. This go-round, not so much. Let Blind Pass flow!

Quoting 451. odinslightning:



FEMA gets blamed for Katrina because so many people that were flooded because of Katrina did NOT have NFIP insurance.

NFIP, the National Flood Insurance Program, is a bureaucracy under the bureaucratic umbrella of FEMA, but it is not FEMA's or NFIP's fault that people didn't have flood coverage before Katrina.  Just like it is not FEMA's fault or NFIP's fault that people didn't have flood coverage in the areas flooded by Superstorm Sandy.

It is not the job of the federal government to come to flood stricken areas and rebuild people's houses for free on the taxpayers dime.  There is no excuse for a homeowner to not have flood insurance.  Floods can happen ANYWHERE, or about anywhere, period!

a sewer backup caused by faulty pipes that causes damage to 2 acres and/or 2 adjacent structures that qualify as a structure as per the NFIP flood policy is considered a flood.  Floods can happen about anywhere given the meteorological conditions are right.   NFIP defines a flood as either/or both at least 2 acres of land that is inundated with flood waters, or 2 adjacent properties that have covered property (structures that are qualified in other parts of the flood policy) are either partially or fully inundated with flood waters.  Just because a property isn't in a designated flood zone (which are drawn and computed based on rising waters of rivers, bodies of water, oceans, seas, creeks, inlets, etc etc etc) does not mean that it wont ever be damaged by flood peril.  the only reason that the designated NFIP flood zone map exists is to identify and insure properties that are known to be in an area in which, within a 100 year period, will be flooded due to either man-made or natural cause(s).  the FIRM map exists to designate which properties MUST have flood coverage if it is partially owned by a mortgage company, not to designate where floods can only happen.

please don't take me wrong, i am not mad at you.  i partially blame the biased mainstream media who distort facts and make people out to be victims, and i fully blame the people that did not insure their property(ies) prior to a flood.  Even if you are not in a qualifying flood zone you can purchase flood insurance.  In fact, people that are not in a designated NFIP flood zone are offered PREFERRED flood policies, which are at REPLACEMENT COST and are only a couple of hundred dollars per year for up to  $250,000.00 of coverage for a dwelling or up to $500,000 for a commercial building or dwelling that does not qualify as a single-family or dual family home.  The premium rates for preferred flood policies is pennies on the dollar compared to what people in designated flood zones pay.


also, do not blame FEMA or NFIP for the fiasco that is now occurring in Louisiana.  less than 20% of homeowners that are in the flood-stricken areas of Louisiana had purchased flood insurance.  They knew they lived on the gulf coast, they knew that they lived in the swamp.  They saw 1st hand what happened to people in New Orleans, yet they chose to pass up the opportunity to purchase flood insurance because it wasn't mandated by the bank that finances their mortgage or because they thought they didn't need it.  Many of them had purchased flood insurance in the few years following Katrina, but overtime disconnect with memories and the drought of landfalling storms led most of them to drop their flood coverage because they thought it was a waste of money.

i know you guys understand meteorology much more than i do, but in turn i know way more about insurance than you do.  do not believe everything you hear in the media, regardless if they are right or left of center.  facts are facts, and people need to be responsible enough to hedge a bet with 200-300 bucks a year to protect their property(ies) that are worth $100's of thousands, if not millions of dollars.


just wanted to clarify that.  remember, it is not the responsibility of the federal government, FEMA, or NFIP to hand out free money to property owners who chose to not insure against flood.

also, do not confuse FEMA with NFIP.  FEMA is a large organization that offers disaster relief in the form of temporary housing, food, water, clothes, soap, etc to help people cope with the time shock of a major disaster.  just because the federal government made the NFIP bureaucracy under the umbrella of the FEMA bureaucracy does not mean that FEMA sells flood insurance, and regardless if people say FEMA or NFIP are to blame for people not having flood coverage they are wrong, period!

So in other words< If you live on top of mount Everest and have no chance of a flood ever you will offer great insurance with "replacement cost" and no deductibles at a low rate. But if you live in an area that may have a flood every 50 years it is expensive, high deductibles, and the layers will fight you tooth and nail before they pay. And you wonder why people don't buy it? Its like taking bets for over the past 100 years on if the Cubs win the world series and bitchin when they do 50 years from now.
523. RM706
And its still raining here in Northeast Florida.
I would love to see the total amount  paid in wind insurance in the state of Florida in one year.Add it all up what the insurance company's take in.  I guaranty the system is rigged and a Andrew today and they would still make money.
Quoting 481. George1938:

Quoting 476. Patrick:

Kinda strange to see comments like "hopefully a COC will form" and "very nice spin". You guys must not own any coastal property or have friends and family in potential harms way. 

Best way to describe the way we (and this goes for any weather nut, nut just this site.) Picture a crack head who wants to stop because it is very destructive but just can't. Personally for me it's like Dr. Jekyll and MR. Hyde I get mad when one misses or weakens but get upset when it does blow. Kinda like well you get it lol  


Watching a blob of clouds roll up into a tropical cyclone is a beautiful thing, the power of nature can be quite stunning. Trying to read the meteorological tea leaves to figure out what it will do and where can be an entertaining challenge (or in the case of 99L, very maddening). And quite frankly, tracking storms is good practice for if/when a storm does threaten you or your family; having stumbled to this blog many many years ago and following along gave me the proper perspective and tips that helped be prepared enough for Charley (even though it wobbled more than I expected) and scared enough of WIlma to get out of dodge before she made her way though. But with that being said...

Hurricanes are only beautiful until they approach land; then the destructive power has a target, and the landscape and often real people's live will change forever, and sometimes even end. We have a REAL storm happening now people, still rolling up over the East coast and possibly heading for a rendezvous with the NE, or at least a close approach for an area that isn't nearly as prepared for storms like as as those in the south. Possibly a historic circumstance in the making, that could end up affecting the entire Eastern US coast.

Yet all anyone wants to talk about today is a little blob of clouds passing through the Atlantic??? Come on! And don't give anyone that BS that maybe such and such wants to know ... that blob of clouds can't even hold a candle to one of Hermine's squall lines, and won't be in 3 days what Hermine already IS, with many more people in her path! Obsessing over whatever the models may be pointing to in two weeks for 92L is pretty damn callous, considering the circumstances, IMO.
I need some info real quick from one of you smart people. I'm in surf city nc and I thought winds have moved offshore but a few people asking me if she has a backside. It doesn't look like it to me but I have no idea. Not trying to hype it, just curious!
Quoting 522. floridaT:



Bubbs.

Love your avatar! Watched like 5 seasons in the last two weeks.
gatorwx- thanks for the update on blind pass this morning, glad to hear it did not wash over.
Quoting 522. floridaT:


So in other words< If you live on top of mount Everest and have no chance of a flood ever you will offer great insurance with "replacement cost" and no deductibles at a low rate. But if you live in an area that may have a flood every 50 years it is expensive, high deductibles, and the layers will fight you tooth and nail before they pay. And you wonder why people don't buy it? Its like taking bets for over the past 100 years on if the Cubs win the world series and bitchin when they do 50 years from now.



That is not how the NFIP operates. It is a federal program designed to offer reasonable flood insurance in areas where the actuarial rates would be prohibitive for most. It is paid for with US Treasury funds. It is also an incentive based program...from the adjusters to the insurance companies who run it for the feds...there is a commission paid on every dollar paid out. It was designed to help people, and to encourage payments, not as a private lines, fight over every dollar, insurance system. It is really a pre-paid federal benefit program, in all reality.
Quoting 525. HighOnHurricanes:



Watching a blob of clouds roll up into a tropical cyclone is a beautiful thing, the power of nature can be quite stunning. Trying to read the meteorological tea leaves to figure out what it will do and where can be an entertaining challenge (or in the case of 99L, very maddening). And quite frankly, tracking storms is good practice for if/when a storm does threaten you or your family; having stumbled to this blog many many years ago and following along gave me the proper perspective and tips that helped be prepared enough for Charley (even though it wobbled more than I expected) and scared enough of WIlma to get out of dodge before she made her way though. But with that being said...

Hurricanes are only beautiful until they approach land; then the destructive power has a target, and the landscape and often real people's live will change forever, and sometimes even end. We have a REAL storm happening now people, still rolling up over the East coast and possibly heading for a rendezvous with the NE, or at least a close approach for an area that isn't nearly as prepared for storms like as as those in the south. Possibly a historic circumstance in the making, that could end up affecting the entire Eastern US coast.

Yet all anyone wants to talk about today is a little blob of clouds passing through the Atlantic??? Come on! And don't give anyone that BS that maybe such and such wants to know ... that blob of clouds can't even hold a candle to one of Hermine's squall lines, and won't be in 3 days what Hermine already IS, with many more people in her path! Obsessing over whatever the models may be pointing to in two weeks for 92L is pretty damn callous, considering the circumstances, IMO.

I'm just wondering did we or did we not just watch 99L do the same thing???
And look how Ole 99L turned out.... "Hermine"
Well this same "Blob" that is headed to the Antillies may or may not turn into
"Ian", and may or may not head to TX/LA Area....
j/s

Taco :o)
When do you think they might issue a warning for Long Island and NYC. With the 5am advisory? Do you think they might upgrade NJ to a hurricane warning?
533. Ed22
Quoting 515. GatorWX:



Enjoy!
Invest 92L should be monitored closely because its getting pretty impressive now, percentage could increase 30%/40% respectively if current trends continues. Watch out for the wave behind it too, good night everyone.

Quoting 529. NOLALawyer:



That is not how the NFIP operates. It is a federal program designed to offer reasonable flood insurance in areas where the actuarial rates would be prohibitive for most. It is paid for with US Treasury funds. It is also an incentive based program...from the adjusters to the insurance companies who run it for the feds...there is a commission paid on every dollar paid out. It was designed to help people, and to encourage payments, not as a private lines, fight over every dollar, insurance system. It is really a pre-paid federal benefit program, in all reality.
And lots of fine print like if 2 structures ore flooded.What if you have no neighbors? sounds like the insurance company lobbyists wrote that ,

Quoting 527. GatorWX:



Bubbs.

Love your avatar! Watched like 5 seasons in the last two weeks.
Snoop dog was hilarious
536. IDTH
Quoting 530. taco2me61:


I'm just wondering did we or did we not just watch 99L do the same thing???
And look how Ole 99L turned out.... "Hermine"
Well this same "Blob" that is headed to the Antillies may or may not turn into
"Ian", and may or may not head to TX/LA Area....
j/s

Taco :o)

"History is filled with mistakes that get repeated."
Quoting 524. floridaT:

I would love to see the total amount  paid in wind insurance in the state of Florida in one year.Add it all up what the insurance company's take in.  I guaranty the system is rigged and a Andrew today and they would still make money.



You have home owner's, wind and flood, typically. Why this isn't allowed to be bundled.... Come election cycle, here, the gerrymandered districts will remain. Much ado to the resiliency of nothing. Big money wins in FL, every time.
Quoting 534. floridaT:


And lots of fine print like if 2 structures ore flooded.What if you have no neighbors? sounds like the insurance company lobbyists wrote that ,



2 or more acres of normally dry land are OR two or more properties.....

The definition of flood is not designed to screw people. This is a federal law (yes, the policy is a codified federal law), and it was written by Congress, and administered by FEMA. The private insurance companies assist the federal government in running the program, because the feds are basically incompetent and cannot run their own program. Just ask anyone with an NFIP direct policy, or anyone with State Farm (who dropped out, did not tell their insured and brokered NFIP Direct policies for them...for a fee).
Quoting 533. Ed22:

Invest 92L should be monitored closely because its getting pretty impressive now, percentage could increase 30%/40% respectively if current trends continues. Watch out for the wave behind it too, good night everyone.


92L will go south of me, next wave north of me. Oh my!!!! :\\\
Quoting 539. CaribBoy:



92L will go south of me, next wave north of me. Oh my!!!! :\\\


Well Carib they are all north of me... I can't even get a passing shower.
"FEMA gets blamed for Katrina because so many people that were flooded because of Katrina did NOT have NFIP insurance"

Firstly, I don't think anyone ever blamed FEMA for Katrina happening, as you state here. The storm was going to happen regardless of FEMA or who had insurance or who didn't. I think people were upset with the typical slow and bureaucratic response of FEMA. The very definition of a Emergency Management Agency is to have measures in place to alleviate the immediate hardship and suffering and in Katrina, the immediate response from FEMA did not happen in anywhere near to a timely manner, which caused even more suffering. Nothing to do with insurance, that part came much later.

Secondly, regarding flood insurance. People in low income areas often cannot afford it. Those who can are often not given good guidance by their insurance companies. Cannot speak for the U.S. but in the Bahamas after Frances and Jeanne, many people were not able to collect on their full claims because the insurance companies told them they were underinsured. So they paid a fraction of the claims. This happened to me, and to the non-profit I run. I questioned why the respective agents just kept renewing the policies year after year and not re-assessing for value. Then when disaster strikes, denying the full value of the claims. I am not an insurance expert. Shouldn't the insurance company have made the effort to assess and advise as to the coverage needed?
Quoting 528. aquak9:

gatorwx- thanks for the update on blind pass this morning, glad to hear it did not wash over.


They dodged one. I thought for sure it would, but it's bad out there, regardless. If we get anything significant, it'll be very iffy for quite a few folks. It's never looked this bad in my existence here, 29 yrs. We'll see if man or nature deals with it first.
Quoting 535. floridaT:


Snoop dog was hilarious



Glad Netflix picked it up or I'd be clueless! Probably one of the better shows I've watched in awhile.
Quoting 521. GatorWX:

Tides, here,have finally dropped. Might be able to go out and do some investigating. Really worried for Manasota Key, though I'd say, without a doubt, Colin brought worst conditions. I think they got lucky out there, from what I've seen so far. God forbid we get any kind of actual,direct strike. It's fragile right now. They seriously need to consider opening that pass back up. Nature is going to do it for them and (for locals,) we'll be paying the bill. It would solve a lot of current problems. Absolutely, the key is in worse shape than after the '05 season. The reality should be, this isn't a safe place to reside. I don't feel comfortable paying taxes to support an effort (multi-millions), to save a few houses that shouldn't be there anyway. The underlying rock obviously supports a pass flowing there. During Colin, it didn't come too far from opening back up. The road there is really the only obstacle. In Colin, it breached the roadway and spilled a lot of water and sand. This go-round, not so much. Let Blind Pass flow!


You talking about this spot?

Link
Quoting 540. LemieT:



Well Carib they are all north of me... I can't even get a passing shower.


I can truely feel your pain. It's awesome how the weather can affect my mood. And to think most of the rain from 92L may stay between Martinique and Antigua...
Guys I got a bad feeling about 92L

Quoting 546. wunderkidcayman:

Guys I got a bad feeling about 92L




September 3... about time :)
Quoting 540. LemieT:



Well Carib they are all north of me... I can't even get a passing shower.


I can smell you from here... would be nice if you could get a shower.
Quoting 548. Dakster:



I can smell you from here... would be nice if you could get a shower.


Lol. It's not going to happen unless I get some rain. Better buy an inhaler or some clothes pins for your nose.
Looks like the eastern edge of 92L is where something is trying to form...

Good thing it's no longer moving at the speed of light lol.
Quoting 549. LemieT:



Lol. It's not going to happen unless I get some rain. Better by an inhaler or some clothes pins for your nose.


Sending some "air" mail to you.
The eastern part of 92 hasn't moved much xD

Link
Quoting 552. CaribBoy:

The eastern part of 92 hasn't moved much xD

Link


It's moving at the speed of smell now.
Quoting 546. wunderkidcayman:

Guys I got a bad feeling about 92L



One thing I find difficult about this blog is that I can never tell if you all are using adjectives to describe the storm getting better/worse or if you are describing future doom guesses.

Ex (from cariboy): "good thing its not moving at the speed of light anymore" Good for the storm embiggening, or good for Miami? so always confused...
555. ackee
Quoting 546. wunderkidcayman:

Guys I got a bad feeling about 92L


what your take on 92L
Lol

The ITCZ sure looks active SE of 92L. Might be my dirt trail from the lack of a bath ;-)
Quoting 546. wunderkidcayman:

Guys I got a bad feeling about 92L


Maybe it's just gas......
It is moving west, we'll see.
Hermine is the big news in Atlantic Basin tropical weather right now.
Quoting 554. Guinness2013:


One thing I find difficult about this blog is that I can never tell if you all are using adjectives to describe the storm getting better/worse or if you are describing future doom guesses.

Ex (from cariboy): "good thing its not moving at the speed of light anymore" Good for the storm embiggening, or good for Miami? so always confused...


Option 1. I'm always wishcasting lol.
Quoting 544. Michfan:



You talking about this spot?

Link


No, Englewood, Sarasota County. Manasota Key
Here's my conversation with Kori this evening...

Kori, 5:44 PM: I'm alive
7:55 PM: Pass my safety along to the blog, if you would.

Astro, 7:56 PM: How was Hermine?

Kori, 8:01 PM: Pretty sure I only got the western eyewall; I doubt our gusts ever exceeded 60 mph. Tallahassee got it much worse.

Astro, 8:02 PM: Cedar Key was best spot, I heard.

Kori, 8:04 PM: My meteorologist friend went to St. Marks. I should have went there. I eventually decided on Carrabelle, a remote coastal town about 30 miles east of Apalachicola. Hick city, but I did meet Cantore there. He was staying at the same marina I was.

:-)
Quoting 530. taco2me61:


I'm just wondering did we or did we not just watch 99L do the same thing???
And look how Ole 99L turned out.... "Hermine"
Well this same "Blob" that is headed to the Antillies may or may not turn into
"Ian", and may or may not head to TX/LA Area....
j/s

Taco :o)


Yes, absolutely, but not while another storm was actively passing over/through the US. The only other cyclones of note were Gaston, which was putting on a impressive display along its tour of the Atlantic, and Lionrock, which was a several days away from threatening Japan. What would become Madeline and eventually threaten Hawaii wasn't even classified a depression until a week ago.

Not to say that it would be prudent to ignore the wave completely, but over half of the posts and 2/3 of any models are related to a blob that may have at best a 20% chance of forming into something in the next 2 days. Certainly feels as though the conversation has been skewed way too much in that direction.

Look, its a fine line between being excited about the science behind the tropics and actively rooting for every wave to end up as a hurricane, one I've danced around myself. Just my opinion that its gone over that line today, in a "Hermine made landfall, we got our destruction porn, now onto the next storm!" kind of way.

92L deserves SOME attention, just not the lions share at the moment. There are bigger and more immediate concerns at the moment, don't you think?
Quoting 559. CaribBoy:



Option 1. I'm always wishcasting lol.


ya, anything that gets me out of work for a couple days I suppose.
I have to pay $212 for flood insurance on a shed in my back yard. Would tear it down, but the chickens, goats, and turkeys would be homeless. To expensive to raise it!
BTW, we are talking 6"!


Quoting 524. floridaT:

I would love to see the total amount  paid in wind insurance in the state of Florida in one year.Add it all up what the insurance company's take in.  I guaranty the system is rigged and a Andrew today and they would still make money.

Quoting 552. CaribBoy:

The eastern part of 92 hasn't moved much xD

Link
GFS and Euro show 92l getting elongated and dissipating from the trade winds speeding in front.
All women have a backside. Some nicer that others.
Oops, deleted!

Quoting 526. hurrikanehunter14:

I need some info real quick from one of you smart people. I'm in surf city nc and I thought winds have moved offshore but a few people asking me if she has a backside. It doesn't look like it to me but I have no idea. Not trying to hype it, just curious!
This getting stupid.

92L remains at 10/20% which I'd disagree at the very least it should be 20/40% IMO
Keep an eye on this one. Wait until you see the EURO tomorrow on both of these :)


Quoting 560. GatorWX:



No, Englewood, Sarasota County. Manasota Key


That link is Manasota Key. I am specifically talking about where Blind Pass is supposed to be at on the Key. I can't seem to remember where even though i lived right up the road from it lol.
Quoting 547. CaribBoy:



September 3... about time :)
Just went thru the last one , I really don't want to go through another one. Maybe two weeks before I get our power back. Same time that thing is supposed to be in the Gulf!!!!!!!
Quoting 562. HighOnHurricanes:



Yes, absolutely, but not while another storm was actively passing over/through the US. The only other cyclones of note were Gaston, which was putting on a impressive display along its tour of the Atlantic, and Lionrock, which was a several days away from threatening Japan. What would become Madeline and eventually threaten Hawaii wasn't even classified a depression until a week ago.

Not to say that it would be prudent to ignore the wave completely, but over half of the posts and 2/3 of any models are related to a blob that may have at best a 20% chance of forming into something in the next 2 days. Certainly feels as though the conversation has been skewed way too much in that direction.

Look, its a fine line between being excited about the science behind the tropics and actively rooting for every wave to end up as a hurricane, one I've danced around myself. Just my opinion that its gone over that line today, in a "Hermine made landfall, we got our destruction porn, now onto the next storm!" kind of way.

92L deserves SOME attention, just not the lions share at the moment. There are bigger and more immediate concerns at the moment, don't you think?

Oh I agree 1000% but I was making a point to someone else on
spending so much time on a blob for it to then turn into a Hurricane....
Yes I do agree that Hermine is the topic right now and should be....
Lord knows I have had my fair share of Storms and having to deal with
what ever we had left to just start over.... I could start with Camille (69)
then leave it with Cindy, Katrina(05) and Even Rita flooded parts of this area
as she went by(05)....
I wish "No Storm" on anyone, Never have and Never will>>>>
j/s

Taco :o)
Quoting 568. wunderkidcayman:

92L remains at 10/20% which I'd disagree at the very least it should be 20/40% IMO

It's like, not what they say but what it is....but then again who can tell?
NHC are model freaks. They don't do old forecasting anymore.
Wow, look at the model forecasts...very hard to interpret with all those partial loops.
Almost looks as if Hermine is saying, "the heck with it", and looking to exit, stage right. :o

Link

Wouldn't that turn everyone, and the models, on their heads?

Jo
GASTON FIGHT #2
15N 47W is really looking suspicious
Quoting 579. HurricaneAndre:


Dang


Eastern part not moving :))
why is absolutely no one amazed at how Gaston is 45 mph in ASCAT? Jesus Christ, that's unexpected. I mean, turning into a DEPRESSION north of the Azores, moving northeast and intensifying... This might pull off a Faith. Or less than that. OR MORE!

what the (f bomb almost dropped), gaston.
NHC classified Gaston as post-tropical beacuse of "shear" and "convection". I guess they need to relearn what post-tropical means, since tropical is not based on convection or winds at all. They just said that and left, without even checking it was atleast 40 mph beacuse of ASCAT. Very dissapointed.
Quoting 575. HurricaneAndre:

NHC are model freaks. They don't do old forecasting anymore.


This may sound like flawed logic in this statement. I don't think anyone does anymore, or at least very few. Even if you were to continue doing old fashion forecasting and could produce a possible track out a few days that looks fairly good. Without model support, especially in 2016 where everything has to be instant and exact(out to 5 days). Even just back in 2005 I watched something. They used to have a special team at the NHC just for overruling computer models. It's almost like we have created a monster that really is better at spotting things compared to us and typically saying otherwise makes you look foolish because you disagree with the "euro" ohhhh noooo howww dare youuuuu, the precious can't be wronggggg. Personally I think they should still do that perfect mix, it is likely cheaper to have less people predicting and just using the computers heavily. But in the end I really haven't a clue.
Hermine's "eye" is just coming off Hatteras now. I guess we'll see what happens now, in terms of where it goes and how much it can intensify. Frankly, it still looks as if it's not going to stop, that it's just going to head off to Greenland before the ridge gets strong enough to stop it. :P

Jo
586. ackee
Quoting 568. wunderkidcayman:

92L remains at 10/20% which I'd disagree at the very least it should be 20/40% IMO
agree NHC will not be excited to up the numbers unless the GFS or euro show something
587. wjdow
60 mph winds here in Kill Devil Hills, house a-shaking, water a-flowing in under the back doors and elsewhere, have used up all the vacation house towels a-soaking, quite a din, great fun, looking forward to seeing the surf at first light.
5 am NHC advisory out. Can anyone explain Tue 0200 cone plot? Post tropical hurricane assuming that is what H in a white circle designates. Is that even possible?
Quoting 589. lat25five:

5 am NHC advisory out. Can anyone explain Tue 0200 cone plot? Post tropical hurricane assuming that is what H in a white circle designates. Is that even possible?


Yes it is, happens a lot more than you would think. Basically the system will now gather strength not just from warmer waters but also from differences in the atmosphere, a lot like a winter type system. You could consider this Sandy without the aid of another low smashing into it. So Sandy's pissed off little sister.
591. wjdow
Just that quickly, the winds have diminished, KDH
As 92 fizzles its travel south to mexico/south america, and dry air takes over most of the atlantic, i believe hurrican season is winding down for the year... its been a very active season and glad to see winter comming
Quoting 590. George1938:



Yes it is, happens a lot more than you would think. Basically the system will now gather strength not just from warmer waters but also from differences in the atmosphere, a lot like a winter type system. You could consider this Sandy without the aid of another low smashing into it. So Sandy's pissed off little sister.

Thx 1938
Just read Avila TS discussion 24 that helped explain as well. 72 hrs out looks ominous! She maybe a little sister but this little brat maybe hard to get rid of.lol
Quoting 575. HurricaneAndre:

NHC are model freaks. They don't do old forecasting anymore.


Might want to examine those forecast track errors of yesteryear before declarations like this.
Morning Naga
What's your take on the 0500 update?
Looks like Avila has made it clear the gang in Miami is sticking this one out till the end.
Quoting 595. lat25five:

Morning Naga
What's your take on the 0500 update?
Looks like Avila has made it clear the gang in Miami is sticking this one out till the end.
We got nothing again
Wind Probabilities:


good/morning looks like 92 even though trying now will be squeezed in a strong trade wind flow. maybe it will pop out of it near the nw carib.?
600. SLU
Impressive 4 to 6mb 24hr pressure falls from the buoys in the vicinity of 92L and the system, though elongated, it actually getting better organized. However, without adequate model support, the NHC usually turns a blind eye.

Reporting from Wilmington NC that we fared well with Hermine ,considering what she could have become given longer. Water may continue as an issue as Hermine dropped anywhere from 4 to 9 inches in a short period of time. 1000 were left without power, but has since been restored. Hats off Duke Progress ( but not for your expensive rates of course!)
Total of 9.6 inches of rain here in Shallotte, NC. We needed it as it has been an unusually dry summer. Ground soaked it in rather quickly. Winds were a joke. I don't believe any limbs even fell. Maximum gust at Oak Island was 32 mph. We've had windier days this summer. The current temperature of 65 degrees is a welcome reprieve.
Quoting 596. mamothmiss:

We got nothing again


You must know thats because it never rains in Daytona. Ever.
And for the vacationers this may make you happy. But watch out and stay informed points north and east. Be safe


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
627 AM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian High Pressure will build into the Carolinas today as
Hermine moves away from the area. Breezy conditions will linger in
the area through the morning with cooler and drier weather
anticipated for the weekend. High pressure will remain in the area
next week with temperatures climbing above normal.
Pressure is down from 997 to 995 at 8am, winds still at 60mph.
Good morning. Some angry sea along Hermine's path!

http://visitob.com/webcams/corolla-nc-beach-cam

http://visitob.com/webcams/kill-devil-hills-nc-be ach-webcam

http://www.surfchex.com/nags-head-web-cam.php



Models still sure that Hermine should be trapped soon.
Quoting 550. CaribBoy:

Looks like the eastern edge of 92L is where something is trying to form...

Good thing it's no longer moving at the speed of light lol.



Too early to tell, but we are entering the peak of Cape Verde tropical cyclone season which is statistically Sept 10-12th. By Monday, the outlook for 92L should be more clear.
6z GFS has a cat 4 south of the OBX, ensembles much further south into the gulf
000
ABNT20 KNHC 031142
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Hermine, located near the North Carolina Outer Banks, and has
issued its last advisory on Gaston, which has become a post-tropical
cyclone to the northeast of the Azores.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has increased
since yesterday. However, environmental conditions are only
marginally conducive, and any development of this system should
be slow to occur while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. This
disturbance is expected to bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty
winds to portions of the Lesser Antilles beginning later today
through Sunday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown
Just had a pretty strong quake in Norman OK a minute ago. Lasted around 8 seconds. Probably a 5+.
New TWO increases % for 92L now 20/30%

Interesting data from the very late 06Z data and waiting to see what the 12Z data has to offer (edited)

There was a RECON mission planned for today for 92L

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 14N 56W AT 03/1800Z.

Let's see if that continues over to today's POTD that will come out later today

92L should continue W should pass over the central E Caribbean islands Nothern Windwards Southern Leewards and should stay S of PR and Hispaniola even though there is a slight shift N in the models for 06Z runs awaiting 12Z runs (edited)

AL, 92, 2016090212, , BEST, 0, 130N, 437W, 25, 1011, WV
AL, 92, 2016090218, , BEST, 0, 130N, 457W, 25, 1009, WV
AL, 92, 2016090300, , BEST, 0, 131N, 472W, 25, 1009, WV
AL, 92, 2016090306, , BEST, 0, 133N, 489W, 25, 1009, WV

92L :\
Quoting 614. CaribBoy:

92L :\


92L really has my heckles up. :-(
elon musk going to have alot of explaining to do why their rocket blew up on the pad. nasa does not like that. certainly glad there was no one on board. personally i am not so sure its such as good idea to let corporations lead the way into space.
Quoting 616. cruzinstephie:



92L really has my heckles up. :-(


Why?
USGS rated the quake a 5.6 in Oklahoma. Largest quake in state history if i recall.
Good morning everybody. Maybe it's just my computer, but when I try to view the "Atlantic Pressure/Windfield Analysis" via the Other Tropical Images portion under the Hurricane Resources menu, it always comes up showing the conditions for February 1. Any suggestions? Thanks!
Good morning folks. Just jolted outta bed by a pretty strong earthquake her in OK.

Hope everyone is well, and those people affected by Hermine are fine.
That really is a big stall that all the models are indicating. That high is building very strongly.

NHC says conditions are only marginally favorable for 92L. Well, Here's one reason. Wind shear is screaming out in front of it. Also, dry sinking air has been the story for a long time. Probably going to have to follow a path similar to 99L if it were ever to develop.

Quoting 619. hurricanehunter27:

USGS rated the quake a 5.6 in Oklahoma. Largest quake in state history if i recall.


A tie - if that is the rating they stick with

November 5, 2011, a magnitude 5.6 earthquake was centered near Prague, Oklahoma
Quoting 611. hurricanehunter27:

Just had a pretty strong quake in Norman OK a minute ago. Lasted around 8 seconds. Probably a 5+.


It was centered in Pawnee - shook the whole state.
Even without a direct hit, the coastal erosion could be another "historic" event. I don't recall any strong system remaining in that area for that long.

Easily TS force winds along that expanse of the east coast for perhaps 3 days is not a good scenario.

Quoting 622. Grothar:

That really is a big stall that all the models are indicating. That high is building very strongly.




Chalk one off for the GFS again for this storm - was calling it well in advance (although it was dependent upon the exact timing of events). Morning Gro.
Quoting 624. daddyjames:



A tie - if that is the rating they stick with

November 5, 2011, a magnitude 5.6 earthquake was centered near Prague, Oklahoma

It was centered in Pawnee - shook the whole state.
My brother in Ponca City and my mom--in Ada--both texted me they felt it.
Quoting 622. Grothar:

That really is a big stall that all the models are indicating. That high is building very strongly.



My brother and his boys were here visiting when 99L went by, then they were stuck in MIA for 12 hours with the rain bands of TD9, they are now home in South Jersey... I think it is following them. My brother is a contractor at the Jersey Shore, so I am sure he will have more work than he knows what to do with after this storm goes by.
I am keeping an eye on 92L and hoping that it too slides right on by. It is more than welcome to dump some rain though.
Quoting 624. daddyjames:



A tie - if that is the rating they stick with

November 5, 2011, a magnitude 5.6 earthquake was centered near Prague, Oklahoma

It was centered in Pawnee - shook the whole state.

The shaking was pretty strong here, can't imagine what it was like there.
Quoting 581. CaribBoy:



Eastern part not moving :))
there is banding in the eastern part of the disturbance, and the latest ascat shows a possible area of circulation trying to close off
close to 14.5 and 47.7
Quoting 627. Neapolitan:

My brother in Ponca City and my mom--in Ada--both texted me they felt it.


Oh yeah - that was one of the better one's I have experienced in Stillwater.
Quoting 630. TheDeathStar:

there is banding in the eastern part of the disturbance, and the latest ascat shows a possible area of circulation trying to close off
close to 14.5 and 47.7



There's a big big convective burst over the possible center near 15 n 49 w
Quoting 623. Bucsboltsfan:

NHC says conditions are only marginally favorable for 92L. Well, Here's one reason. Wind shear is screaming out in front of it. Also, dry sinking air has been the story for a long time. Probably going to have to follow a path similar to 99L if it were ever to develop.




That upper low moving out the way taking the shear with it the upper anticyclonic flow on 92L is protecting it

Path for 92L will likely be different than 99L

Quoting 625. Grothar:

Even without a direct hit, the coastal erosion could be another "historic" event. I don't recall any strong system remaining in that area for that long.

Easily TS force winds along that expanse of the east coast for perhaps 3 days is not a good scenario.




I think it's gonna get stronger than expected and I think a landfall may occur
It will be going over a patch of anomalously warm water slowly. It will not take much to assume CAT 1 status.
as most models are now indicating.


Quoting 629. hurricanehunter27:


The shaking was pretty strong here, can't imagine what it was like there.


I hope they are ok up there. Will imagine that some of the buildings in Pawnee downtown received some damage.
By the way, if you are up there, you have to go to Click's Steakhouse. Some of the best steak you will ever have.
Quoting 625. Grothar:

Even without a direct hit, the coastal erosion could be another "historic" event. I don't recall any strong system remaining in that area for that long.

Easily TS force winds along that expanse of the east coast for perhaps 3 days is not a good scenario.




Well my forecast just went bust I guess. Morning Gro. Stay safe NE
Shear tendency out in front of 92L. Let's see if it's another fighter.

I do hope we do get a RECON mission into 92L then it would shut down all this talk of trying to figure out where exactly a LLC is trying to close off ;)

Anyway I'd say it's at 13N 49W ;) ;)
Quoting 602. LibertyFlames11:

Total of 9.6 inches of rain here in Shallotte, NC. We needed it as it has been an unusually dry summer. Ground soaked it in rather quickly. Winds were a joke. I don't believe any limbs even fell. Maximum gust at Oak Island was 32 mph. We've had windier days this summer. The current temperature of 65 degrees is a welcome reprieve.


Stronger winds were offshore thankfully

Quoting 605. Methurricanes:

Pressure is down from 997 to 995 at 8am, winds still at 60mph.


Wonder if it strengthened over the sounds?
Quoting 634. Grothar:

It will be going over a patch of anomalously warm water slowly. It will not take much to assume CAT 1 status.
as most models are now indicating.




Right in the big bend again?
92L has both Saharan Dust and Wind Shear to contend with in its trek west.
Quoting 635. daddyjames:



I hope they are ok up there. Will imagine that some of the buildings in Pawnee downtown received some damage.
By the way, if you are up there, you have to go to Click's Steakhouse. Some of the best steak you will ever have.

I'll make sure to check it out next time I'm in the area.
Quoting 630. TheDeathStar:

there is banding in the eastern part of the disturbance, and the latest ascat shows a possible area of circulation trying to close off
close to 14.5 and 47.7


Vorticity is on the increase near 15N and 50W
Quoting 626. daddyjames:



Chalk one off for the GFS again for this storm - was calling it well in advance (although it was dependent upon the exact timing of events). Morning Gro.



Morning, dj. I don't know what's worse. Waking up to an earthquake or a hurricane. How be you?

I would discuss 92L, but we were told last night we're not allowed to discuss while Hermine is out there. I guess some people are just "monocyclonic."

Although I believe 921L is going to be a very strong hurricane. We can't play too close attention to the current models because they are running with a very shallow system.
AL, 92, 2016090218, , BEST, 0, 130N, 457W, 25, 1009, WV
AL, 92, 2016090300, , BEST, 0, 131N, 472W, 25, 1009, WV
AL, 92, 2016090306, , BEST, 0, 134N, 491W, 25, 1009, WV
AL, 92, 2016090312, , BEST, 0, 137N, 511W, 25, 1009, WV
Quoting 640. Icybubba:


Right in the big bend again?


No that is Hermine. Sorry. It just shows the entire path from the beginning. Just for that, you get a C- for observation. :):)
Damage already being reported in Pawnee and in Morrison.
Quoting 638. wunderkidcayman:

I do hope we do get a RECON mission into 92L then it would shut down all this talk of trying to figure out where exactly a LLC is trying to close off ;)

Anyway I'd say it's at 13N 49W ;) ;)

What's your basis for saying that, there is nothing, i mean absolutely nothing at those coordinates...
The waves behind 92L have a better chance once the SAL and shear are out of the way.
Link
Quoting 645. Grothar:




Morning, dj. I don't know what's worse. Waking up to an earthquake or a hurricane. How be you?

I would discuss 92L, but we were told last night we're not allowed to discuss while Hermine is out there. I guess some people are just "monocyclonic."

Although I believe 921L is going to be a very strong hurricane. We can't play too close attention to the current models because they are running with a very shallow system.


Really? That's ridiculous.

I was referring specifically to the stall off the NE coast of the CONUS with Hermine - so I am not in any trouble - yet ;).

That last earthquake was a doozy - thankfully already awake and just about to get the coffee going. Actually ran outside as it was lasting a little too long and bouncing me up and down too much to be comfortable staying inside for that one. if given a choice, I'll pick a hurricane everytime. At least you can leave when a storm approaches. Earthquake? you have no choice and just have to ride it out.
Looking at the visible the center is around 14-15N and 48W. See post 630, ASCAT easily shows that. That is also where the convection is. However, the clouds out in front of the wave are streaming from south to north confirming the wind shear. This one is going to have to fight like 99L.

Quoting 619. hurricanehunter27:

USGS rated the quake a 5.6 in Oklahoma. Largest quake in state history if i recall.


just keep on frackin'..
Bradley Beach, NJ area here - not raining yet, wind is steady 10-15 mph out of the east, low clouds building in. We're sheltering in place for Hermine.
Quoting 653. marsHen:



just keep on frackin'..


have a funny feeling this will renew debate bout it here in OK. They had been scaling back the rate of injection of the wastewater back into the ground - but some companies have been fighting it.

Damage reports coming as far away as SW OKC. Feel for those people in and around Pawnee. Some significant damage already reported to homes and buildings.
Historical Hermine. Tangler of above ground power lines. Floater of mobile homes. Tosser of China made product.
658. FOREX
Quoting 653. marsHen:



just keep on frackin'..
Will fracking lead to us being able to give Arab countries the boot someday when it comes to importing oil? I would be for that if that is the case.
Quoting 650. Chicklit:

The waves behind 92L have a better chance once the SAL and shear are out of the way.
Link


Morning, Chicklit! Enjoy your day off.

They both have healthy circulations. 92L will probably be a slow developer, but good possibilities.

Quoting 580. CaribBoy:

15N 47W is really looking suspicious


Indeed, -its now approaching 15N 49W...In keeping with the model intensity forecast 92L seems to be slowing organizing and consolidating its center while attaining a more stacked structure...actually slightly reminiscent of the central pacific storms style of cyclogenesis that seem to spread out first - being elongated before getting more symmetrical.

God Bless!
Damage reported in the complex I live in in Stillwater. Several apartments being flooded from broken pipes. (Selfishly) and thankfully, not in or around mine.
Quoting 653. marsHen:



just keep on frackin'..

Similar earthquakes swarms in the 50's. No fracking then.
Something i've not seen mentioned much yet:
Hermine stalling off the N.J. coastline may be a good thing. Although there will be extensive beach erosion and high winds, the rainfall is much needed. Take a look at the August precipitation maps for the northeast. From the South Jersey shoreline all the way up to the Maine coast; the entire stretch saw an inch or less during August.
Mother Nature taking care of her dryness. :)
664. SLU
Quoting 638. wunderkidcayman:

I do hope we do get a RECON mission into 92L then it would shut down all this talk of trying to figure out where exactly a LLC is trying to close off ;)

Anyway I'd say it's at 13N 49W ;) ;)


Low level cloud lines show southerly winds at 50-51W so the center can't be at 49W.
Quoting 638. wunderkidcayman:

I do hope we do get a RECON mission into 92L then it would shut down all this talk of trying to figure out where exactly a LLC is trying to close off ;)

Anyway I'd say it's at 13N 49W ;) ;)


Outside of total wishcasting how can you say 13.0N. Show evidence. Folks have posted the ASCAT and the satellite. A recon will tell you where it is not - 13N.
Quoting 658. FOREX:

Will fracking lead to us being able to give Arab countries the boot someday when it comes to importing oil? I would be for that if that is the case.


Would you pay for the damage that is caused when done irresponsibly?
Quoting 606. barbamz:

Good morning. Some angry sea along Hermine's path!

http://visitob.com/webcams/corolla-nc-beach-cam

http://visitob.com/webcams/kill-devil-hills-nc-be ach-webcam

http://www.surfchex.com/nags-head-web-cam.php



Models still sure that Hermine should be trapped soon.
Jersey Shore = Frightening
Quoting 663. SPShaw:

Something i've not seen mentioned much yet:
Hermine stalling off the N.J. coastline may be a good thing. Although there will be extensive beach erosion and high winds, the rainfall is much needed. Take a look at the August precipitation maps for the northeast. From the South Jersey shoreline all the way up to the Maine coast; the entire stretch saw an inch or less during August.
Mother Nature taking care of her dryness. :)
Not a good thing at all.
Quoting 662. eyeofbetsy:


Similar earthquakes swarms in the 50's. No fracking then.


Scientifically, the evidence overwhelmingly shows that the recent swarm of earthquakes in Oklahoma is definitively linked to fracking and to disposal of wastewater. Even the State of Oklahoma now admits that is the case. Several places where wastewater disposal was stopped immediately saw a decline in earthquake activity and intensity.
670. SLU
Station 41040

Highest 1-minute Wind Speed

9:10 am 29.1 kts E ( 80 deg true )


Peak gust during the measurement hour

9:10 am E ( 80 deg ) 33.0 kts
672. Ed22
Quoting 656. GeoffreyWPB:




Jamaica in the way, furthermore 92L will be the player for Caribbean this coming weeks.
Aftershocks now rolling through - can barely feel those as compared with the other one.

Images of the damage to Pawnee are just rolling in.
Quoting 669. daddyjames:



Scientifically, the evidence overwhelmingly shows that the recent swarm of earthquakes in Oklahoma is definitively linked to fracking and to disposal of wastewater. Even the State of Oklahoma now admits that is the case. Several places where wastewater disposal was stopped immediately saw a decline in earthquake activity and intensity.

Probably doing Oklahoma a favor by keeping these natural faults from building up preventing even larger earthquakes.
You bloggers know, I may hype a "blob" but never hype an actual storm. I think that with Hermine, this may become a really dangerous situation for a long time. Even if there is not a landfall again, the coastal flooding will be quite an event. While Hermine is expected to become a hurricane again, I'm afraid that enough people will not have time to evacuate some of the barrier islands and flood prone coastal areas. Some of these areas are very flat and it doesn't take much to flood. With the duration of this system, it would be there are numerous high tides I would assume. I do hope that enough warnings are provided and people in the area are not being fooled that just because the system is off the coast, they will not be affected. This could be a very dangerous and catastrophic storm.

Quoting 662. eyeofbetsy:


Similar earthquakes swarms in the 50's. No fracking then.

No

A Century of Induced Earthquakes in Oklahoma?
Link

"Widespread use of injection wells
for disposal of wastewater generated during oil production
began in the 1930s"



Quoting 675. Grothar:

You bloggers know, I may hype a "blob" but never hype an actual storm. I think that with Hermine, this may become a really dangerous situation for a long time. Even if there is not a landfall again, the coastal flooding will be quite an event. While Hermine is expected to become a hurricane again, I'm afraid that enough people will not have time to evacuate some of the barrier islands and flood prone coastal areas. Some of these areas are very flat and it doesn't take much to flood. With the duration of this system, it would be there are numerous high tides I would assume. I do hope that enough warnings are provided and people in the area are not being fooled that just because the system is off the coast, they will not be affected. This could be a very dangerous and catastrophic storm.


The municipal authorities have learned their lesson from Sandy for the most part. The year-round residents, too, for the most part aren't taking any chances. It's the summer home/vacationing people I worry about and the impact to business. Losing a holiday weekend here when we're still putting it back together from Sandy really sucks for the tourism industry, towns are already losing their traditional character because the beach amusements/boardwalk trades that made the Jersey Shore what it was are slowly disappearing.
GFS and the ECMWF don't develop 92L. As Chicklit posted -windshear and SAL are making conditions unfavorable.

Folks on the coast in the mid Atlantic and NE please listen to your local authorities. This is a dangerous setup for you.
Hello, here are some useful links.

From tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov :
- Tropical Storm Hermine QuickLook.
=========
*** E.H. Twitter lists : Breaking Weather
- #EdValleeWx
- #Hal Needham
=========
- Windyty - Wind map & forecast (many more parameters available : wave height, period, etc... Remember it's computer models, not real-time observations)
=========
Webcams : - Virginia / Outer Banks - Surfline (annoying ads)
- Surfchex.com - NE cams (no ads)
Quoting 673. daddyjames:

Aftershocks now rolling through - can barely feel those as compared with the other one.

Images of the damage to Pawnee are just rolling in.

wait what - I just woke up- halfa cuppa coffee in my gut - - tell please?
Quoting 666. daddyjames:



Would you pay for the damage that is caused when done irresponsibly?
The decline in oil prices has already put most of the fracking companies on life support. I think it's much ado about nothing.
Well, we will stay dry. :(
Quoting 667. popartpete:

Jersey Shore = Frightening

That model has Hermine dipping into the coast right over my house. I'll keep posting for as long as I can.
Key Points from yesterday and our visit with Hermine:

-Assume you WILL lose power. It may not be until after the circulation has passed and you are on the backside of the system, and impacts are winding down. Mind you, at our location our peak wind gust measured under 60mph (56 if memory serves).

-Assume that power and therefore, traffic lights, will fluctuate after the fact. I had to go into work and assess my situation for later today. On the way in, traffic lights were still out. On the way back home, lights that were working before, had stopped working. Stay aware of your surroundings.

-Assume that when you go to the store (if power has been restored to such a condition to allow you to go shopping), that the shelves may not have as much product as you expect. Also, assume that deliveries will NOT be on time and shelves may not be restocked as quickly as you might think. This is currently a situation I am dealing with for my (perishable) department.

-Assume that when you go to the store, your debit/credit card will not work. At face value, store systems may APPEAR to be online, but you might be the first one there using a card that says "cannot process" because the system is down beyond store level. Cash is king.

-If you have to travel within city limits, take very close notes as to where damage is located on the roadways, especially if lighting permits. If you are traveling later and the sun has set, it pays to know where limbs and lines were down earlier, and assume that they will still be there. Have a contact number for your local power co-op to relay information regarding downed power lines if you come across any. Do NOT assume everyone else driving past it will report it.

We had a likely tornado come in from offshore at about 0510 yesterday and impacted a neighborhood, which had no warning. Half an hour prior, a Tornado Warning was issued for another storm. This one in particular had a viable signature (at least to my eyes, green on yellow on low-angle radial velocity), according to WU radar which I had left up on my laptop all night and woke up and checked periodically due to the potential tornado threat. I happened to see this one coming in, and had to refresh the warnings pages on three different websites to make sure that I was looking at the correct thing, and that no warning was issued. I am waiting to see what the official determination is by our local WFO. Thankfully nobody there was injured.

This system was a solid dress rehearsal for us in Savannah. I know people who still have no power. Going on 12+ hours. This was only a tropical storm. To be frank, whatever complacency some had, has likely been thrown right out the window. Hopefully we do not have to do this again for quite some time.
~


Boring
First, man is making the planet warmer and now, we're creating earthquakes? I have another roll of Reynolds if ya need one. ;)

Kiddin'
Quoting 675. Grothar:

You bloggers know, I may hype a "blob" but never hype an actual storm. I think that with Hermine, this may become a really dangerous situation for a long time. Even if there is not a landfall again, the coastal flooding will be quite an event. While Hermine is expected to become a hurricane again, I'm afraid that enough people will not have time to evacuate some of the barrier islands and flood prone coastal areas. Some of these areas are very flat and it doesn't take much to flood. With the duration of this system, it would be there are numerous high tides I would assume. I do hope that enough warnings are provided and people in the area are not being fooled that just because the system is off the coast, they will not be affected. This could be a very dangerous and catastrophic storm.



Timing and placement of center will be crucial. The potential for a sustained fetch into NYC would not be good.
Hermine may have gained strength from the bathwater that is the Pamlico Sound. Arthur did the same in 2014.


Quoting 680. aquak9:


wait what - I just woke up- halfa cuppa coffee in my gut - - tell please?


We had quite a shake this morning - 5.6 magnitude in OK. I kept trying to hit the snooze alarm, to no avail.
Quoting 681. lexslamman:

The decline in oil prices has already put most of the fracking companies on life support. I think it's much ado about nothing.


You obviously do not live in OK. Study up on what has been happening the last 5 years.
692. 900MB
Quoting 674. eyeofbetsy:


Probably doing Oklahoma a favor by keeping these natural faults from building up preventing even larger earthquakes.


...or it could be the start of a SciFi movie "SuperQuake!" where the evil business interests blow off any repercussions in the interest of making money, and then a young scientist that has cried wolf in the past and is largely ignored finally catches the ear of someone important and takes over the situation and saves the day, all while attracting a love interest (or a patch-up with former spouse).
ok, thanks daddyjames.... snooze button don't work on a saturday, y'know? :)

I went thru Northridge; earthquakes terrify me.
Quoting 678. Bucsboltsfan:

GFS and the ECMWF don't develop 92L. As Chicklit posted -windshear and SAL are making conditions unfavorable.

Folks on the coast in the mid Atlantic and NE please listen to your local authorities. This is a dangerous setup for you.


SAL and high shear in the MDR in September. To quote Charlie Brown, good grief.

Maybe it winds down in a week or two before shutting down in October.

Quoting 691. daddyjames:



You obviously do not live in OK. Study up on what has been happening the last 5 years.
Duck, NC



Last Observed Sample: 09/03/2016 09:42 (EDT)
Wind Speed: 34 knots Gusts: 47 knots Direction: 10° T





Last Observed Sample: 09/03/2016 09:42 (EDT)
Barometric Pressure: 997.2 mb
Quoting 690. daddyjames:



We had quite a shake this morning - 5.6 magnitude in OK. I kept trying to hit the snooze alarm, to no avail.

I'm also in Stillwater. I thought it wasn't going to stop rolling...that was a very long 20 or so seconds. Glad you are OK - sorry about your neighbors with the water.
Quoting 698. Picatso:


I'm also in Stillwater. I thought it wasn't going to stop rolling...that was a very long 20 or so seconds. Glad you are OK - sorry about your neighbors with the water.


Picatso we should meet up sometime, have coffee. Hope everything is good with you.
Quoting 687. GatorWX:

First, man is making the planet warmer and now, we're creating earthquakes? I have another roll of Reynolds if ya need one. ;)

Kiddin'
Kiddin', but they definitely are connected -- the process that has been shown to cause the OK earthquakes is resulting in warming as well. And those results are affecting people in Louisiana and the US Southeast, as well as many other parts of the world, and will continue to increase those effects for hundreds if not thousands of years. We were warned.
http://www.obxcams.com/hilton_inn.html
Raging! When the webcam is directed towards the ocean.
Quoting 674. eyeofbetsy:


Probably doing Oklahoma a favor by keeping these natural faults from building up preventing even larger earthquakes.


Bullsugar. Having the exact opposite effect. Stop typing out of your *
Quoting 699. daddyjames:



Picatso we should meet up sometime, have coffee. Hope everything is good with you.



A 5.6 off Nor Cal this morning
Link
Atlantic City NJ could see surge of 6-7 feet basically the same from Sandy especially during high tide cycles. The closer it tracks to the coast the higher the surge will be. Take this seriously folks if you live in the North East. This event is going to last days so it makes it ten times worse.
Quoting 699. daddyjames:



Picatso we should meet up sometime, have coffee. Hope everything is good with you.

You've got WUMail. The little notification thing is intermittent.
Quoting 707. Picatso:


You've got WUMail. The little notification thing is intermittent.


Or non-existent - I'll check.

Replied, let me know!
Quoting 702. barbamz:

http://www.obxcams.com/hilton_inn.html
Raging! When the webcam is directed towards the ocean.



Wooo indeed!

Though, think someone would have brought the patio furniture in?! LOL
Quoting 700. Patrap:



Does my very untrained eye detect some turn the last couple of frames?
Hide tides:
Cape May, NJ -
Sunday - 10:41 am / 10:51 pm
Monday - 11:19 am / 11:29 pm
Tuesday - 11:59 am
Wednesday - 12:09 am / 12:42 pm

Atlantic City, NJ -
Sunday - 10:07 am / 10:17 pm
Monday - 10:45 am / 10:55 pm
Tuesday - 11:25 am / 11:35 pm
Wednesday - 12:08 pm

Sandy Hook, NJ -
Sunday - 10:34 am / 10:44 pm
Monday - 11:15 am / 11:27 pm
Tuesday - 11:58 am
Wednesday - 12:11 am / 12:41 pm

New York City (The Battery) -
Sunday - 11:07 am / 11:17 pm
Monday - 11:49 am
Tuesday - 12:01 am / 12:32 pm
Wednesday - 12:46 am / 1:14 pm

Montauk, Long Island, NY -
Sunday - 11:40 am
Monday - 12:01 am / 12:47 pm
Tuesday - 12:47 am / 1:14 pm
Wednesday - 1:34 am / 2:04 pm

Beautiful weather we're having here in D.C.Thanks Hermine!
Stillwater damage from the earthquake coming n. Thankfully no initial reports of significant damage in Pawnee.

Quoting 670. SLU:

Station 41040

Highest 1-minute Wind Speed

9:10 am 29.1 kts E ( 80 deg true )


Peak gust during the measurement hour

9:10 am E ( 80 deg ) 33.0 kts



Whatever, differing models may indicate...the data is showing that the system is intense enough already -as per Tropical depression strength. There will definitely be some 'weather' this evening in some of the Lesser Antilles islands. I hope the self-coined "Lesser Antilles rule" doesn't lead to sudden intensification near, or over the islands, apparently a similar set up is forecast about two weeks from now. Time will tell...

Be safe everyone & God Bless!
Quoting 674. eyeofbetsy:


Probably doing Oklahoma a favor by keeping these natural faults from building up preventing even larger earthquakes.
That is some stellar logic right there. I suppose one could also say that the fossil fuel industry is doing us a favor by makings so many people sick that they require medical help, and that gets people into the doctor who normally wouldn't have gone. Thanks, ExxonMobil!
Checking in from south Shore of Long Island. Interested to see what you all have to say about Hermine.
Happy name day NEA.

🌞 🌉 🌎


has of today wind shear is vary low in all of the Caribbean Sea up too the gulf so the gulf and
Caribbean Sea are wide open today with vary low wind shear

How do I upload a photo here?
Hopefully LemiT is getting some showers this morning.
AL, 09, 2016090312, , BEST, 0, 359N, 755W, 55, 993, LO,
looks like Hermine is making a comeback but how much will it ramp up?
Quoting 716. longislander102:

Checking in from south Shore of Long Island. Interested to see what you all have to say about Hermine.

Guess you'll be here for a few days then. :)
Dangerously beautiful would be my guess for anywhere on Long Islands' south-facing side. Stay safe and keep us updated if you can.
Quoting 725. muddertracker:



?
Fortunately 92L does not appear to be in a rush to develop & at least thus far does Not look too terribly organized at the moment ... Thus, so far we are breathing a sigh of relief -as a strengthening system approaching the islands over the weekend is the last thing we were looking forward to in the Central Eastern Caribbean islands.
Hopefully 92L will not have any surprises or sudden 'tricks up its sleeve' as it nears the islands. Although given the intensity forecast it may begin to organize and enter into imminent cyclogenesis right over the islands. Right now from the model paths for the system it appears to be likely to take its perceived center over my island, Dominica, the Nature Isle of the Caribbean.
However, alternatively it could also just as easily slide across over the island of Martinique just further south.
So far just a few scattered moderate to heavy showers intermittently this morning.
More significant impacts are expected by this afternoon & tonight. Hopefully it will not be anything too strong by that time either we pray.
Also, that system due West of the Cape Verde Islands may soon be designated as 93L if it is warranted- quite a descent spin to it as well...Kee[ safe everyone especially those in the mid-Atlantic states.

Happy weekend to All! & God Bless!
Quoting 676. Sfloridacat5:


No

A Century of Induced Earthquakes in Oklahoma?
Link

"Widespread use of injection wells
for disposal of wastewater generated during oil production
began in the 1930s"






The quake was 6.6 km deep. That is 21,653 feet deep.
Quoting 720. Patrap:




Currently Extra-tropical as evident by the frontal band convection displaced to the north of the circulation and the lack of convection around the center, as well as the cold front also shown in imagery. However once she gets back over water, she may transition back to a fully warm core system over the gulf stream.
Quoting 716. longislander102:

Checking in from south Shore of Long Island. Interested to see what you all have to say about Hermine.


You potentially are going to have a rough few days. Check out post 675 for some thoughts on what could happen. Refer to your local NWS and the NHC for more specific information.
Notice how the Dry Air that was moving rapidly east has slowed down considerably and halted to a degree, Hermine is about to slow down as well.

Ok guys you need to chill when I said 13N I used that as a general Lat not a pinpoint if you want pinpoint I was going more for 13.6N and when I says 49W that was old data yes it'd further along more closer to 50W

Right now I'd put it

13.7N 51.2W

Overall rotation is elongated W-E still has some work to do
As I said with most system we need to watch as it gets to magic 55W

Anyway it's a wait and see game
Quoting 730. FIUStormChaser:



Currently Extra-tropical as evident by the frontal band convection displaced to the north of the circulation and the lack of convection around the center, as well as the cold front also shown in imagery. However once she gets back over water, she may transition back to a fully warm core system over the gulf stream.


Surface obvs support this observation

Quoting 727. thetwilightzone:



?


Hey, Taz...just wanting this thing to go away....permanently :) How much longer do you think she'll be around?
Quoting 723. thetwilightzone:

AL, 09, 2016090312, , BEST, 0, 359N, 755W, 55, 993, LO,
Down another 2mb, it was at 997 at 5am. getting stronger.
Quoting 702. barbamz:

http://www.obxcams.com/hilton_inn.html
Raging! When the webcam is directed towards the ocean.


Good morning!

I just looked at that cam. The ocean is insane but even more so is the guy that is on that wharf with the truck, walking outside. Guess he doesn't want to be on earth for much longer!

Lindy
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT SAT 03 SEPTEMBER 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-100

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. TROPICAL STORM HERMINE
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 04/1130Z,1730Z A. 04/2330Z, 05/0530Z
B. AFXXX 1709A HERMINE B. AFXXX 1809A HERMINE
C. 04/0800Z C. 04/2100Z
D. 37.9N 71.6W D. 38.4N 71.6W
E. 04/0500Z TO 04/1730Z E. 04/2300Z TO 05/0530Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES WHILE HERMINE REMAINS A THREAT.
B. POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST AT 05/2000Z NEAR 15.5N 68.5W
Quoting 735. muddertracker:



Hey, Taz...just wanting this thing to go away....permanently :) How much longer do you think she'll be around?


not sure its up too the storm
92L looks like i might get some rain here in St.thomas on monday very good news
Quoting 716. longislander102:

Checking in from south Shore of Long Island. Interested to see what you all have to say about Hermine.


Down in Long Beach. Already got all my supplies, moved all my outdoor furniture into the garage, and removed all valuables from the first floor of my home. I had 8 feet of water on my first floor during Sandy. My retaining wall, which was built in the 1950s after Donna I believe, did it's job. My wood fence separating my yard from my neighbors yard, however, did not. The ocean came roaring in all my doors and windows like I had never seen before. I basically just finished redoing the first floor about a year ago. Not in the mood to do it all over again.

Waves are steadily picking up. Surfed earlier this morning, 2-3 ft sets coming in from the east. Looks to be 3-4 ft now and building. I have a real bad feeling about this one. The ocean should not breach the dunes in areas where we still have dunes because the offshore wind will hopefully keep the water at bay. I fully expect to see water on the roads in areas where the dunes were removed when the boardwalk was built in the early 1900s. The worst of the flooding is going to come from the bay, as is the case 95% of the time. A lot of houses were raised after Sandy, the ones that weren't will have some problems for sure.

I'll keep updating daily.
Tropical Storm Warnings expanded at 11am advisory.
Quoting 740. thetwilightzone:



not sure its up too the storm


:) For sure.
It amazing Hermine is supposed to be 50 miles south of Nantucket in about 5 days.

000
WTNT44 KNHC 031457
TCDAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 03 2016

Satellite imagery indicates that Hermine has become a post-tropical
cyclone, with the coldest convective tops now located more than 200
n mi northeast of the exposed center
. Despite this change in
structure, surface data from the Outer Banks indicate that some
strong winds persist near the center, and the initial intensity is
set to 55 kt for this advisory. During the next 48 to 72 hours,
Hermine will interact with a strong mid-latitude shortwave trough
and all of the global models show the system re-intensifying during
that time and a redevelopment of a stronger inner core, albeit one
situated underneath an upper-level low. Regardless of its final
structure, Hermine is expected to remain a dangerous cyclone through
the 5 day period.

The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 060/14. Hermine
should continue moving northeastward in deep-layer southwesterly
flow through 24 hours and then meander generally northward from 36
to 72 hours while the cyclone deepens beneath the upper-level low.
Late in the period, the guidance is in generally good agreement
showing a steadier motion toward the northeast, although there is
significant spread. The new NHC forecast is generally close to the
previous one and is near a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF through 3
days, and then favors the guidance that is a bit faster and farther
north at days 4 and 5.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The slow motion and large wind field associated with Hermine will
result in a long duration of hazardous conditions along much of the
mid-Atlantic coast extending into southern New England through the
holiday weekend.

2. Although Hermine has become a post-tropical cyclone, NHC will
continue to issue its full suite of advisory and warning products as
long as the system remains a significant threat to land areas.

3. P-surge, the model that drives the Potential Storm Surge Flooding
Graphic, is designed for a wind field typical of a tropical
cyclone. The wind field of Hermine is very poorly represented by
the P-surge model and as a result, recent Flooding Graphics have
understated the inundation risk from the Carolinas northward. NHC
will be discontinuing runs of the P-surge model for Hermine with
this advisory. The NWS is attempting to substitute the GFS ensemble
system for P-surge for the next issuance of the Potential Storm
Surge Flooding Graphic, to provide a more realistic depiction of the
threat. If this effort is unsuccessful, issuance of the Potential
Storm Surge Flooding Graphic for Hermine will also be discontinued.

4. The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic does account for
the current wind structure of Hermine, and therefore accurately
identifies those areas at risk for life-threatening storm surge.
This graphic will continue to be produced for Hermine.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 36.1N 75.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 04/0000Z 37.1N 73.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 04/1200Z 37.9N 71.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 05/0000Z 38.4N 71.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 05/1200Z 38.7N 71.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 06/1200Z 39.5N 71.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 07/1200Z 40.4N 70.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 08/1200Z 41.0N 67.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Brennan

Thanks, 999Ai2016. Those were some good links.
Quoting 721. wantsnow:

How do I upload a photo here?

Upload your photo at some image host site (like imgur, photobucket or else), copy the address of the photo, click the photo symbol below the comment section in here and paste the address into the opening field.
749. 900MB
Ominous here with Hermine is that pressure is at 993mb, winds at 65mph sustained, and it just hit the warm water. Forecast is for 10mph increase. Could it be 20 or 25?
Also more on RECON on 92L

On new update
B. POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST AT 05/2000z NEAR 15.5N 68.5W
Quoting 674. eyeofbetsy:


Probably doing Oklahoma a favor by keeping these natural faults from building up preventing even larger earthquakes.

No. It's not like the faults in OK are 1000s of miles long or 10s of miles in surface width where they can build up that kind of strain. There are approximate limits to quake magnitude based upon the dimensions of the faults.
Quoting 715. Neapolitan:

That is some stellar logic right there. I suppose one could also say that the fossil fuel industry is doing us a favor by makings so many people sick that they require medical help, and that gets people into the doctor who normally wouldn't have gone. Thanks, ExxonMobil!

You should read some of the entertaining denial on the comments sections of OKC area media outlets.
752. beell
Quoting 710. muddertracker:


Does my very untrained eye detect some turn the last couple of frames?


.


A few of us would agree-at the northern end of the axis of this low amplitude wave. 15N 50W is close enough for now.

92L is such a punishment to those in need of rain. Look at its flat shape!! Is it too much ask to have a greater extent in latitude! This thing is looking terrible.
Quoting 715. Neapolitan:

That is some stellar logic right there. I suppose one could also say that the fossil fuel industry is doing us a favor by makings so many people sick that they require medical help, and that gets people into the doctor who normally wouldn't have gone. Thanks, ExxonMobil!

Our family grew up next to Exxon's refinery in Baton Rouge. No one has health problems. I worked there for thirty three years and am 68 and in great health. Many people are "sick ' for many reasons. The largest being lifestyle choices. More people will die from what they shove down there pie hole than from breathing the air.
Quoting 742. tc1120:



Down in Long Beach. Already got all my supplies, moved all my outdoor furniture into the garage, and removed all valuables from the first floor of my home. I had 8 feet of water on my first floor during Sandy. My retaining wall, which was built in the 1950s after Donna I believe, did it's job. My wood fence separating my yard from my neighbors yard, however, did not. The ocean came roaring in all my doors and windows like I had never seen before. I basically just finished redoing the first floor about a year ago. Not in the mood to do it all over again.

Waves are steadily picking up. Surfed earlier this morning, 2-3 ft sets coming in from the east. Looks to be 3-4 ft now and building. I have a real bad feeling about this one. The ocean should not breach the dunes in areas where we still have dunes because the offshore wind will hopefully keep the water at bay. I fully expect to see water on the roads in areas where the dunes were removed when the boardwalk was built in the early 1900s. The worst of the flooding is going to come from the bay, as is the case 95% of the time. A lot of houses were raised after Sandy, the ones that weren't will have some problems for sure.

I'll keep updating daily.

Long Beach, holy crap. I am in Massapequa but just north of Sunrise. Don't have to worry about flooding like you do! I won't be home though as was called in the answer phones at command center for a shift. Should be interesting. Keep us posted from Long Beach.
Quoting 749. 900MB:

Ominous here with Hermine is that pressure is at 993mb, winds at 65mph sustained, and it just hit the warm water. Forecast is for 10mph increase. Could it be 20 or 25?


I think the nhc has a good handle on the intensity. I could see a 980mb Category 1 with 85mph winds transitioning to a 70mph extratropical storm.
Quoting 721. wantsnow:

How do I upload a photo here?



Link
Hermine may become tropical or sub tropical again
Quoting 624. daddyjames:



A tie - if that is the rating they stick with

November 5, 2011, a magnitude 5.6 earthquake was centered near Prague, Oklahoma

It was centered in Pawnee - shook the whole state.


You can than fracking for that. Seismographic maps of that area show no fault lines.
Quoting 741. rockcity340:

92L looks like i might get some rain here in St.thomas on monday very good news


It needs to get more latitude or expend northward. But now none of these are happening :(
Quoting 758. wunderkidcayman:

Hermine may become tropical or sub tropical again


As it stalls over the Gulf Stream, it will eventually transition to warm core once again.

Recon took off from Gulfport. Will take a while to reach Hermine.


Lester got a visit from recon, too.
764. 900MB
Quoting 756. wilsongti45:



I think the nhc has a good handle on the intensity. I could see a 980mb Category 1 with 85mph winds transitioning to a 70mph extratropical storm.


They added 5mph, back to 75mph peak on this advisory. Looking at the RAMMB, sure looks like see is reorganizing very quickly. Has about 2/3rds of an "eye" right now. Guess she was thirsty!
For those of you who are interested in how Tropical Cyclone's transition into Extra tropical Cyclone's / Hybrids, you can pull up the structure of Hermine at landfall and Hermine currently and see just how much even by just using your eyes on visible the system has changed:

A powerful Extra-Tropical Storm:



92L is about too run i too 25kt of shear then it will have vary low shear all the way up too the gulf


how ever we will see what the next wind shear maps shows for the path of 92L


Quoting 719. thetwilightzone:

has of today wind shear is vary low in all of the Caribbean Sea up too the gulf so the gulf and
Caribbean Sea are wide open today with vary low wind shear



I wonder how accurate those maps really are. It seems Hermine was in low shear and you could clearly see shear was affecting her.
Would be a good news if the center consolidates near 15N 50W
CTZ009-010-011-012-NJZ006-012-106-108-NYZ071-072-07 3-074-075-078-
079-080-081-176-177-178-179-032100-
/O.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1009.160903T1500Z-000000T0000Z/
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016

SANDY-HOOK-NJ 40.46N 74.00W
WATCH-HILL-RI 41.30N 71.86W


$$

Tropical Storm Warning for NYC... Wow.
Quoting 764. 900MB:



They added 5mph, back to 75mph peak on this advisory. Looking at the RAMMB, sure looks like see is reorganizing very quickly. Has about 2/3rds of an "eye" right now. Guess she was thirsty!

I think that is what they are seeing as well. There was a jump in the intensity forecast and its expanse at 11am with no new model runs. Some old school observational forecasting going on.
New 12Z Sfc charts 92L enters area

92L looks like another viral wave wanting to seed itself close to land like Earl and Hermine did. Let's not forget the storm with no name and the damage it did. Models will continue to struggle with long tracking invests until they close off. I am thankful for the NHC and the models, because without them we would have very little warning.
Hurricane StatementIssued: 7:01 AM EDT Sep. 3, 2016 – National Weather Service

This product covers New Jersey... Delaware... southeastern Pennsylvania and northeast Maryland.

**Tropical storm Hermine expected to produce significant coastal
flooding and strong winds near the Delaware and New Jersey coasts
this Labor Day weekend**

New information
---------------

* changes to watches and warnings:
    - none

* current watches and warnings:
    - a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for New
      Castle... Kent... inland Sussex... Delaware beaches... western
      Monmouth... eastern
      Monmouth... Salem... ocean... Cumberland... Atlantic... Cape
      May... Atlantic coastal Cape May... coastal Atlantic... coastal
      ocean and southeastern Burlington
    - a tropical storm watch remains in effect for Middlesex

* storm information:
    - about 290 miles south-southwest of Atlantic City NJ or about
      260 miles south-southwest of Dover de
    - 35.4n 76.5w
    - storm intensity 60 mph
    - movement east-northeast or 60 degrees at 21 mph

Situation overview
------------------

Tropical Storm Hermine is currently near the Outer Banks of North
Carolina. Hermine will move northeastward and off the mid-
Atlantic coast through tonight. The storm is then expected to
meander off the Delmarva and New Jersey coasts Sunday and Monday
before gradually move northeastward and away from the area during
the middle of next week.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for all of Delaware and
coastal New Jersey from Cape May to Sandy Hook and along Delaware
Bay. This warning also includes the coastal waters and all of
Delaware Bay. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for
Middlesex County in New Jersey. Sustained tropical storm force
winds are expected over land areas near the Atlantic coast and
the shore of Delaware Bay. There is a potential for tropical
storm force wind gusts farther inland across southern and central
New Jersey and possibly extending back west into the I-95
corridor.

Minor to moderate coastal flooding is likely around the times of
high tide starting this evening. Moderate coastal flooding is
likely late Sunday through Monday. Pockets of major coastal
flooding is possible with the high tide cycle on Sunday night and
Monday late morning, particularly along the Delaware and southern
New Jersey coast including back bays, as well as the southern
shore of the Delaware Bay.

There is a potential for more than 2 inches of rainfall. Some areas
near the coast in Delaware and southern New Jersey may receive 3 to
4 inches with locally higher amounts, which could lead to flooding.
The heaviest rain is expected this afternoon in southern Delaware
and late Sunday through early Monday elsewhere along the coast.

Hazardous seas and dangerously rough surf can be expected this
Holiday weekend and possibly into the middle of next week. A
high rip current risk can be expected at the beaches during this
time. Significant beach erosion is expected with heavy surf
breaching dunes.

Potential impacts
-----------------

* surge:
protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across coastal areas of New Jersey and Delaware and along
the shore of Delaware Bay. Potential impacts in this area
include:
    - areas of inundation are possible with storm surge flooding
      enhanced by waves. Damage is likely to several buildings,
      mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads could
      become weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable
      low spots.
    - Major beach erosion is expected with heavy surf breaching
      dunes. Strong and numerous rip currents are expected.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers is
      anticipated. Several small craft may be broken away from
      moorings, especially in unprotected areas.

Also, protect against locally hazardous coastal flooding having
possible limited impacts along the Delaware River.

Elsewhere across New Jersey... Delaware... southeastern Pennsylvania
and northeast Maryland., Little to no impact is anticipated.

* Wind:
protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts
across coastal areas of New Jersey and delware. Potential impacts
in this area include:
    - some damage to roofing and siding is likely, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings will
      experience window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile homes
      may be damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects could become airborne.
    - Several large trees may be snapped or uprooted. Several fences
      and roadway signs could be blown over.
    - Some roads may be impassable from large debris. A few bridges,
      causeways, and access routes may be impassable.
    - There could be scattered power and communications outages, but
      more prevalent in areas with above ground lines.

Also, protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across inland parts of New Jersey, Delaware and possibly as far west as
eastern Maryland and southeast Pennsylvania.

* Flooding rain:
protect against locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across southern Delaware and southeastern New Jersey.
Potential impacts include:
    - localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents.
      Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become swollen
      and overflow in spots.
    - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in
      vulnerable spots. Rapid ponding of water may occur at
      underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Several
      storm drains and retention ponds become near-full and begin to
      overflow. Some brief Road and bridge closures are possible.

Elsewhere across New Jersey... Delaware... southeastern Pennsylvania
and northeast Maryland. Little to no impact is anticipated.

Precautionary/preparedness actions
----------------------------------

* other preparedness information:
now is the time to bring to completion all preparations to protect
life and property in accordance with your emergency plan.

Outside preparations should be wrapped up as soon as possible before
weather conditions completely deteriorate. Any remaining evacuations
and relocations should be expedited before the onset of tropical
storm force wind.

If you are relocating to safe shelter, leave as early as possible. If
heading to a community shelter, become familiar with the shelter
rules before arrival, especially if you have special needs or own a
pet. Take essential items with you from your emergency supplies kit.
Check the latest weather forecast before departing.

Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of
life. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any
orders that are issued. Remember, during the storm 9 1 1 emergency
services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are
unsafe. This should be a big factor in your decision making.

Check-in with your emergency points of contact among family, friends,
and workmates. Inform them of your status and well-being. Let them
know how you intend to ride out the storm and when you plan to
check-in again.

If you are a visitor and still in the area, listen for the name of
the city or town in which you are staying within local news updates.
Be sure you know the name of the County in which it resides. Pay
attention for instructions from local authorities.

Closely monitor NOAA Weather Radio or other local news outlets for
official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes to
the forecast.


* Additional sources of information:
- for information on appropriate preparations see ready.Gov
- for information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.Org
- for additional disaster preparedness information see Redcross.Org

Next update
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Mount Holly NJ around noon EDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.
Quoting 768. CaribBoy:

Would be a good news if the center consolidates near 15N 50W


Even if it does it's still gonna pass S of you you might get some scattered showers on the outer edges but this isn't your system CaribBoy

However don't dispare the system off the CV islands are much further N and will likely move N of you but the S end of the system could give you some decent rains

I'm sorry this isn't a Cat 5 doing loops around your island but it's the best you got
LSU vs Wisconsin @ Lambeau Field today
Quoting 767. SELAliveforthetropic:


I wonder how accurate those maps really are. It seems Hermine was in low shear and you could clearly see shear was affecting her.


i gust it depends on wish way the shear is moving around the storm
GFS & EURO seem more excited about a wave that will exit the coast this upcoming week.
Quoting 670. SLU:

Station 41040

Highest 1-minute Wind Speed

9:10 am 29.1 kts E ( 80 deg true )


Peak gust during the measurement hour

9:10 am E ( 80 deg ) 33.0 kts

Do you have a link ?
Quoting 759. VAstorms:



You can than fracking for that. Seismographic maps of that area show no fault lines.


Current Injection well sites in OK




Earthquakes (> 3.0) in OK, 1980-2009



Earthquakes (> 3.0) in OK, 2010-Today




Sometimes its not Rocket Science.

Source http://earthquakes.ok.gov/what-we-know/earthquake- map/

12z GFS is going to be further north and west.
I live on a river on the southern Chesapeake Bay. We are past high tide and it was lower than what we saw last fall.
Quoting 781. wilsongti45:

12z GFS is going to be further north and west.


Hermine or 92L?
Quoting 783. FIUStormChaser:



Hermine or 92L?

Hermine
We give um names and numbers for a reason.

🌞
786. vis0
•   BTW Grothar the action just East of Antilles was the blob you called ??, can't
remember nor find that capture of that comment...yet a better name know that i see what SEEMS* to be happening would be "conjoinedusblobs" 
*though those that watch lots of TS development see many TW go through what
appears to be a formation of one into two ...
(NOT to be confused with when a TW/TD splits in the center)
...then the stronger eats the weaker...wow just like with animals...too soon?
•    For those that follow "2WkAnom" it begins in a ~couple of days. 

•    Don't buy popcorn now instead send money that would've been spent on Adrenalin supplemental (some junk / some healthy) foods  instead towards RED CROSS,  PORTLIGHT to help flood victims. 
°    Here is an idea to save money on Adrenalin supplemental foods. Buy a cheap leather tie...(i can hear TAZ aka TWI saying were is vis0 going with this...cucamonga?)..now buy the spice you like most that is (the main flavour) on your fav Adrenalin supplemental foods.Now every time a storm is building up dip that cheap PREVIOUSLY UNUSED (NOW vis0 tells me) tie into a bowl of that favorite flavour / spice.chew on tie ...Re-Dip...   (MAKE SURE ITS ONLY YOUR BOWL you're reDipping into...aquak9 does a spit-take after seeing vis0 reDIp from same bowl...spit-take burning through wax on floor
...tie and you'll have years of mmmmm (couuuuuugh arrrgh arrgh... loose thread sorry) tasty finger leather** good..Spice costs 2 dollars for a gallon...99cents if on sale (why are all laffing, not top quality?) and less calories!

**not to be confused with the Coral.Now breathe deep pinch nose breathing in (NOT WITH FINGERS use nose muscles and air intake to pinch nose) expand tummy / waist (not to worry guys no one is watching) Now exhale flare nose while squeezing in tummy / waist (i'd use "diaphragm" but most guys would think i'm not a woman ; - P)   this style of breathing clears out negative energy THOUGH if one has an addiction in removing that negative too quickly one might feel like they're going through cold "turkeying" so control the actions of squeezing out not as tight if you feel angry cause one needs that addictive product.   Its how laughing correctly cures some illnesses...
(notice when one laffs one suddenly contracts waist 'cuase the good laff is unexpected so one needs to use that 10 to 15% of stored extra air in lower lungs to bring out that laffing sound, that air is also used for fight or flight)
...to and if one reads brain waves WHILE BREATHING IN THIS MANNER compared to improper breathing one can better map brain deficiencies that build up or diseases as Alzheimer, Parkinson (as posted on my now deleted WxU blogbytes)If some of this is too other the edge okay to remove but MODs save the health info  you might need it later.
BACK TO THE SERIOUSNESS OF OBSERVING WEATHER...grab that tie!!!!!!!

Lester, holding onto Cat 2 status for the moment, but starting to be shredded by wind shear over marginal SSTs.
Quoting 722. CaribBoy:

Hopefully LemiT is getting some showers this morning.


Yeah we are getting a few. Might not last long but a little something is better then absolutely nothing.
No wind though...
It will certainly be interesting to see how tight the core of Hermine is as a post-tropical cyclone, because it is probably staying offshore, a tight core is probably best, vs a broad but still strong circulation.
Amazingly sharp cutoff in the ppt shield for post-Hermine, almost coincident with the shoreline.
793. vis0
FORGOT to add the reason i posted that looong crap was i cannot open my blog...waited twice over 10 mins not loading
Quoting 754. eyeofbetsy:


Our family grew up next to Exxon's refinery in Baton Rouge. No one has health problems. I worked there for thirty three years and am 68 and in great health. Many people are "sick ' for many reasons. The largest being lifestyle choices. More people will die from what they shove down there pie hole than from breathing the air.


You sound just like the people defending smoking back when I grew up . How did that turn out?
Quoting 774. wunderkidcayman:



Even if it does it's still gonna pass S of you you might get some scattered showers on the outer edges but this isn't your system CaribBoy

However don't dispare the system off the CV islands are much further N and will likely move N of you but the S end of the system could give you some decent rains

I'm sorry this isn't a Cat 5 doing loops around your island but it's the best you got


And unless it develops before the islands - which it isn't going to do then it won't develop until the extreme western Caribbean (earl) or north of the islands or the GOM (Hermine). Sorry kid but no dice with this one for the Caymans. I know you are okay with that since you've said you don't want a hurricane.
92L might be another 99L repeat take its time to get organized
Quoting 716. longislander102:

Checking in from south Shore of Long Island. Interested to see what you all have to say about Hermine.

Depending on how far East you are on LI won't really be huge wind event for you folks but I'd suggest going to take some photos of your beaches. Because by the end of next week it may look a whole lot different. I 'm afraid folks on Jersey shore will get both wind and surge event though. Think Sandy's mean little sister if I may paraphrase another blogger. Stay safe, be prepared , be set for widespread power outages.
Quoting 796. rockcity340:

92L might be another 99L repeat take its time to get organized


Totally agree. Just look at it's predecessors.
Quoting 797. lat25five:


Depending on how far East you are on LI won't really be huge wind event for you folks but I'd suggest going to take some photos of your beaches. Because by the end of next week it may look a whole lot different. I 'm afraid folks on Jersey shore will get both wind and surge event though. Think Sandy's mean little sister if I may paraphrase another blogger. Stay safe, be prepared , be set for widespread power outages.
Eastern Long Island has a chance of serious wind for a time on Tuesday/Tuesday night. Depending on how the intensity goes, they could need a Hurricane Watch there.
800. 900MB
Quoting 790. Patrap:




Pretty good looking for a hybrid TS, right?
Quoting 678. Bucsboltsfan:

GFS and the ECMWF don't develop 92L. As Chicklit posted -windshear and SAL are making conditions unfavorable.

Folks on the coast in the mid Atlantic and NE please listen to your local authorities. This is a dangerous setup for you.

Don't you people learn everyone down played Hermine and look what we got. Again models are useless at this point for 92!
My surge(ing) thoughts:
With the way the models are portraying Hermine and taking into account the circulation dynamics; i'd say that the waterway/bay between Connecticut and Long Island will receive the brunt of any extended surge. This topography will act like a funnel, pushing waters towards NYC for 48 hours+.
Quoting 802. SPShaw:

My surge(ing) thoughts:
With the way the models are portraying Hermine and taking into account the circulation dynamics; i'd say that the waterway/bay between Connecticut and Long Island will receive the brunt of any extended surge. This topography will act like a funnel, pushing waters towards NYC for 48 hours+.

Definitely something to watch although thus far, the extent of the storm is significantly smaller than Sandy making the northeasterly fetch less, but probably akin to a respectable Noreaster, which this storm has become.
Kill Devil Hills NC webcam, ocean approaching big white mess status there.

Wind and weather from Kill Devil Hills, NC - Wind Stats :
Today's peak wind gust (so far, when I posted the comment) :
82.1 mph @ 11:47AM
Wind Average :
5min ago N 59.9 mph
10min ago N 64.0 mph
15min ago N 63.1 mph
=========
Odd facts : Thousands of birds got trapped in Hurricane Hermine's eye. Really.
WaPo / Capital Wx Gang - Sept. 2.
When do they issue Trop. Storm advisories?
if hermine gets her eye over the gulf stream she could be tropical again quickly
807. 900MB
Quoting 802. SPShaw:

My surge(ing) thoughts:
With the way the models are portraying Hermine and taking into account the circulation dynamics; i'd say that the waterway/bay between Connecticut and Long Island will receive the brunt of any extended surge. This topography will act like a funnel, pushing waters towards NYC for 48 hours+.


That was the Sandy setup- water pushed from the Long Island Sound west and south into NY Bay via East River, while surge was pushing up the coast from the North. I think Hermine would have to drift a tad higher North- say 50 miles south of Fire Island to give the sound a strong tropical storm style push. This is still a possibility. The big question is how much water can be pushed with a storm of this duration. Very rare. Guess we will find out.
Quoting 803. BayFog:


Definitely something to watch although thus far, the extent of the storm is significantly smaller than Sandy making the northeasterly fetch less, but probably akin to a respectable Noreaster, which this storm has become.
maybe as it is pulling away to the NE mid-week LI could be in Trouble, and Cape Cod Bay, the current track brings it very close to Nantucket.
Quoting 754. eyeofbetsy:


Our family grew up next to Exxon's refinery in Baton Rouge. No one has health problems. I worked there for thirty three years and am 68 and in great health. Many people are "sick ' for many reasons. The largest being lifestyle choices. More people will die from what they shove down there pie hole than from breathing the air.
I'm happy to hear that fossil fuel pollution hasn't brought disease and misery to you and yours. But empirical--as opposed to anecdotal--evidence shows a very strong correlation between fossil fuel air pollution, and poor health and death. And that massive burden is carried by every one of us.

Too, nobody suggested that air pollution kills more people than a poor diet. But just because a particular cause of death isn't at the top of the list isn't any reason to pretend it's harmless.
We're still a few hours from rain/seriously deteriorating weather where I am just outside of Asbury Park, NJ, but the skies are looking ominous. Lots of low level clouds coming in from the ENE, wind now from the NE and brisk. Heading down to the beach to check out the surf before we're stuck in place for what could be a few days.

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New York New York
1040 am EDT Sat Sep 3 2016

Synopsis...
high pressure builds to the north through the weekend, then slowly
retreats into the Canadian Maritimes through Monday night.
Meanwhile, tropical cyclone Hermine moves to near the virgina
CAPES by this afternoon, then slowly tracks northward towards Long
Island through Tuesday and then northeast into the Canadian
Maritimes likely by Thursday. Weak high pressure then builds in
to close the week.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
just some minor changes this update to reflect the latest trends
in observations and guidance. With more cloud cover than
previously forecast, have lowered temperatures today by a degree
or two. Otherwise, the region remains under northern stream
ridging today, keeping things dry. Clouds will gradually lower and
thicken during the day as Hermine slowly moves closer.

Highs today were based on a blend of mav/met/ecs guidance, NAM
2-meter temperatures and a mix down from 925-850 hpa per BUFKIT
soundings. Highs should be near to slightly below normal.

There is a high risk of rip currents at Atlantic Ocean beaches
today.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Sunday/...
northern stream ridging gives way to troughing ahead of Hermine,
which at that point should be merging with a 500 hpa low moving
in from the central Appalachians. Clouds will lower and thicken
tonight. However should see sufficient residual subsidence from
the ridge and induced subsidence ahead of the tropical cyclone to
keep things dry.

Lows tonight were based on a blend of ecs/met/mav guidance and NAM
2-meter temperatures, and should be near normal.

&&

Long term /Sunday through Friday/...
the main story of the long term is tropical cyclone Hermine as it
slowly tracks towards, but never quite reaches, Long Island
through midweek, then exits out into the Canadian Maritimes by the
end of the week.

The following impacts are at least possible if not expected:

1) dangerous rip currents are expected from this weekend through
the middle of next week.

2) moderate to probably major coastal flooding is likely from
Sunday into at least Monday and possibly Tuesday. Significant
beach erosion from high surf is also likely. Refer to The Tides
and coastal flooding section of the afd for details.

3) sustained winds to tropical storm force (at least 39 mph) are
possible over mainly southern coastal areas from late Sunday into
Monday morning.

4) locally heavy rainfall producing localized fresh water flooding
remains a relatively low threat. Refer to the hydrology section of
the afd for details.

The European model (ecmwf) is alone in bringing in measurable precipitation before
12z Sunday...so have basically followed a non-European model (ecmwf) blend for
timing/distribution of precipitation. As a result have only chance
pops Sunday, then likely pops from Sunday night into Monday night.
Still have uncertainty on how fast Hermine exits to the east (the
European model (ecmwf) for now is a progressive outlier), so linger chance pops
into Wednesday - mainly over eastern zones.

Refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest in regards
to tropical cyclone Hermine as there is uncertainty.

Deep layered ridging builds in behind Hermine to close the week -
probably in the Thursday-Friday time frame.

&&

Aviation /15z Saturday through Wednesday/...
high pressure builds towards the region today...while Hermine
tracks NE off the Carolina coast to a point off the Delmarva coast
tonight.

Tempo MVFR conds possible at NYC terminals through
17z...otherwise VFR. Northeast flow increases through the day
today with gusts around 20 kt developing at the coast between mid
morning and early eve. Continue gusts at kjfk/klga/kewr through
the night...however they could subside for a few hours this eve.
Kbdr gusts may be more ocnl this aftn so have left out of
forecast. Winds increase further late tonight. Winds may be
stronger than forecast at coastal terminals towards 12z.

Outlook for 12z Sunday through Wednesday...
Sunday-Tuesday...potential for tropical cyclone Hermine to impact
the tri-state area into early next week. Main impact will be
strong winds. Rain and MVFR to locally IFR possible as well.
Wednesday...remnants of Hermine move away from coast with VFR.

&&

Marine...
made minor changes this update to reflect the latest trends in
observations and guidance. The forecast appears on track.

As Hermine moves off the North Carolina coast today and slowly lifts
northward...the pressure gradient between this system and high
pressure to the north will increase. This will result in an
increasing NE flow through the day. Tropical storm force winds are
expected to move into the ocean waters late tonight. As such...have
upgraded the tropical storm watch to a warning for the ocean waters
only. Have maintained the watch elsewhere since it will likely take
until later Sunday morning for these winds to reach the rest of the
waters. It could also not be until afternoon on Li sound.

The strongest winds appear to be Sunday night and will be on the
ocean waters since they are the closest to the center of the
storm. Sustained winds of 35 to 45 kt with gusts up to 60 kt will
be likely during sun evening and overnight here. Seas will also
build to 15 to 20 ft as a result. Winds gradually decrease on
Monday...especially on the non-ocean waters. The current NHC track
has Hermine tracking NE from off the Delaware coast at 8am Monday
to near the 40n 70w benchmark by 8pm Wed. This will maintain
strong winds/gusts on the ocean waters into Tuesday and then
decrease from west to east as it pulls away.

However, there is still uncertainty in the track as this is a
fluid situation. Changes to the forecast are possible.

Refer to the National Hurricane Center forecasts and advisories
for further details on Hermine.

&&

Hydrology...
moderate to severe drought conditions continue for Suffolk County,
refer to the latest local drought statement for details.

It should be dry through tonight.

Tropical cyclone Hermine could bring moderate to locally heavy
rainfall to mainly the southeast 1/2 of the tri-state (including nyc)
from Sunday night into at least Monday night and possibly into
Tuesday. For now forecasting between .1 and 1.5 inches of rain
over the tri-state from Sunday into Wednesday, with highest
amounts over the Twin Forks of Long Island and lowest amounts over
Orange County. Locally higher amounts are possible. If locally
heavy rainfall does occur, than localized fresh water flooding is
possible, due to the expected tropical nature of the rainfall.

&&

Tides/coastal flooding...
increasing confidence exists in Hermine producing successive tidal
cycles of moderate to major coastal flooding, battering surf causing
severe dune erosion and washovers, and dangerous rip currents from
Sunday through early next week.

Preparations should be made for life threatening surge across
coastal locations of New York City...Long Island...southwest
CT...and tidal portions of northeastern New Jersey.

The primary concern is for surge to build to between 3 to 6 feet
across western Li sound...New York Harbor...and western Great South
Bay...and between 2 to 4 ft across eastern Li sound...Peconic and
Gardiners Bay...and the eastern South Shore bays during the
Sunday/Monday timeframe as Hermine is forecast to stall off the
Delmarva coast and aim an easterly fetch of storm to hurricane force
winds towards the region. Multiple cycles of at least moderate
coastal flooding are expected Sunday into midweek...with a
reasonable worst case scenario of widespread major coastal flooding
if the high end of the surge ranges are realized. This worst case
scenario would result in a life threatening 3 to 4 ft of inundation
above ground across some low-lying coastal locales.

Additionally...expectation is for surf to build to 10 to 15 ft on
Sunday and continue into early next week. This surf on top of
stormtide will result in severe dune erosion and washovers. Of
particular concern is life threatening enhancement of storm surge <>br styl
Quoting 805. Icybubba:

When do they issue Trop. Storm advisories?


?
Quoting 807. 900MB:



That was the Sandy setup- water pushed from the Long Island Sound west and south into NY Bay via East River, while surge was pushing up the coast from the North. I think Hermine would have to drift a tad higher North- say 50 miles south of Fire Island to give the sound a strong tropical storm style push. This is still a possibility. The big question is how much water can be pushed with a storm of this duration. Very rare. Guess we will find out.

Thanks for the reply.
Yes, all depends on where she sets up and how long she sits there.
Location, location, location.
Quoting 794. pingon:



You sound just like the people defending smoking back when I grew up . How did that turn out?
turned out pretty good. science proved smoking was bad for your health . we all agreed.now a whole lot of people and states want burn a joint. Inhaled smoke from tobacco is bad but pot is good? really? science is good only when needed politically.
Vis0, I enjoyed reading your post. You are quite a character!
Quoting 806. islander101010:

if hermine gets her eye over the gulf stream she could be tropical again quickly

It makes sense, but I've noticed over the years how this sensible idea seems to almost always fail to materialize. I'm not sure why that is. Maybe it has to do with duration over the deep water SSTs---storm motion. The forecasters have this storm dwelling rather than scooting away, so maybe there will be enough time to gain significant energy from the Gulf Stream. We shall see.
Quoting 809. Neapolitan:

I'm happy to hear that fossil fuel pollution hasn't brought disease and misery to you and yours. But empirical--as opposed to anecdotal--evidence shows a very strong correlation between fossil fuel air pollution, and poor health and death. And that massive burden is carried by every one of us.

Too, nobody suggested that air pollution kills more people than a poor diet. But just because a particular cause of death isn't at the top of the list isn't any reason to pretend it's harmless.


Patraps wunderblog September 21,2009Patraps wunderblog,September 21,2009

Hurricane Preparation Entry
************************************************* *************************************************

Yes..in October 2002 my Dad was Diagnosed with Asbestos related Lung Cancer stage 4.

Dad worked in Oil Refineries doing tear out and repairs of the furnaces that ran the Catcracker's that break down crude Oil into gasoline.
All the Products were manufactured,some by Babcox and Wilcox..one of the material suppliers. All their products were asbestos laden.

I worked with Dad in the refineries from 76 till 1980 when I join the USMC.

Dad continued to do this kind of Union Work cuz he was the BEST Gunite nozzle man in the Southeast.
See,when a Catcracker goes down for maintenance,the Oil companies run 2 12hr shifts to get them back up as soon as Possible.

A Catcracker not running makes no Unleaded Gas for you nor them,so they pay the Best to get er done.


Dad doing his Job,White hat.



In 2002 Dad was diagnosed and retained a wunderful firm to represent him. I took care of my Dad daily,along with my disabled wife thru Dads Needle Biopsies,and Chemo.
Alas,Dad lost his Only Battle,March 20,2003 the Same Day the current Iraqi War started. He was a WW-2 Marine and with His dying breath,..he wished His comrades in arms,Semper Fi..

I softly,lying,..told him that the Night Before His Marines had Killed Saddam and his two Sons during Shock and awe..He smiled ..drew his last breath sitting up..and left us.
We were all there as a Family,by His Side.


I removed his dog Tags he wore from his neck,,,the same tags he wore in the Battle of Okinawa in 45.

He was a Great Father who raised us all well.

Mother passed away 6 months later Aug 14,as she was lost without him.

Now forward to Babcox and Wilcox,these folks make Billion's off of folks like my Father. The also Build Nuclear Reactor Plants as well. This July 2nd we signed a settlement sheet for a small amount they would be paying to myself and my 2 Siblings.It was due to arrive by now. But as its in a Trust,the Trust conveniently ran out of cash this year so we wont be seeing any of that money till,sometime in 2010.

They settled on $111,000 between my 2 siblings and I.
But since the trust was low on pocket change,only 37 percent of that was to be split 4 ways,..doing the math its about $6-7000, and we wont be seeing that till maybe sometime in 2010.
You see.,,their lobbyist are much better than the insurance ones,cuz in these cases,Billions are owed,and rightly so the Money goes to those with mesothelioma cases first,then to Dad's type of Claim.Asbestos related Lung Cancer.

7 years next month we have been dealing with these companies. Babcock and Wilcox is only 1 of 85 being sued et all by many Like my Father. We've received some small settlements from other companies,as they have to put aside so much when they come out of Bankruptcy to pay these claims.
Im not a lawyer,but I talked to Ours today and made some insight as to our claims.And We will be Meeting with them in Baton Rouge soon.

Americans should not have to continue to suffer after the negligence of others in the all ending pursuit to screw the Little Guys. Its a Waiting game. It dosnt pass on to my Wife nor my Kids when I die. If My Brother and Sister and I all pass,well,,they keep all those settlement dollars.

So if you or a Loved one has asbestos related disease from using products made and used ..seek a good law firm for you are due Damages,even if their deceased, Dad had his Body Autopsied immediately upon his death at his request. His case was easy..he was full of asbestos and the cancer it caused turned him into a Skeleton in 7 months.

Thanks for listening and beware,there are folks,companies and whole industries that never once told us what we were using was dangerous,..and we knew their was some risks.But in the end..their negligence have Killed,maimed..millions of Americans.

Contact a Reptutable lawer if you have a question,or know a loved one who worked with asbestos products in the 1940's thru today.

Thanks for listening to my Dads story.

He was a Hero in WW-2 and to the Day he died,..always Loved the Corps.
Semper Fi Dad.

I'll Always be Faithful to you and our family's cause in your Memory.

Asbestos-Related Disease


More Links on the above.
Quoting 814. number4steel:

turned out pretty good. science proved smoking was bad for your health . we all agreed.now a whole lot of people and states want burn a joint. Inhaled smoke from tobacco is bad but pot is good? really? science is good only when needed politically.


No. Science is good when done correctly. Political misrepresentation and distortion of science by any group is inexcusable. Do not confuse the two with one another.
Quoting 795. luvtogolf:



And unless it develops before the islands - which it isn't going to do then it won't develop until the extreme western Caribbean (earl) or north of the islands or the GOM (Hermine). Sorry kid but no dice with this one for the Caymans. I know you are okay with that since you've said you don't want a hurricane.


If it doesn't develop before entering E Caribbean it will do so in the Central Caribbean S of Hispaniola

Either way it will still hit Jamaica and the Cayman Islands Cuba Yucatan area (NW Caribbean) whether as a storm or as a invest/wave

Quoting 796. rockcity340:

92L might be another 99L repeat take its time to get organized


Nah maybe closer to a 97L if anything
Quoting 759. VAstorms:

...and poking a stick at something thats already volatile is brilliant
hermines eye is only 20 miles away from some of the warmest water in the atlantic. 35n 75w would be right over the gulf stream
Quoting 819. wunderkidcayman:



If it doesn't develop before entering E Caribbean it will do so in the Central Caribbean S of Hispaniola

Either way it will still hit Jamaica and the Cayman Islands Cuba Yucatan area (NW Caribbean) whether as a storm or as a invest/wave



Nah maybe closer to a 97L if anything


You are wrong. Wishcasting doesn't trump the facts.
Mark Sudduth of HurricaneTrack(dot)com and now infamous Cedar Key Cam guy is headed to N.J. to set up some new storm surge cams. Here's what he had to say:

"I am preparing to head up to New Jersey from North Carolina later today. I will bring with me one state of the art weather station to set up along the coast along with four of my unmanned cameras. You may have seen the incredible live video from the one I deployed in Cedar Key on Friday. The storm surge ripped off a huge piece of wooden deck/walkway and sent it crashing in to the camera itself, knocking it off the pole it was mounted to. The battering from the waves eventually caused the cam to shut off but not before revealing the danger and destructive power of storm surge. I went back and recovered the camera yesterday fully intact and operational. The Pelican case it is housed in did its job and protected everything inside. I will bring that same camera with me to New Jersey.

My plan will be to deploy the four cams along the coast of New Jersey from the Cape May area north to include Brigantine for sure and then two other locations that I will work on as I make my way north. I want to be able to show you the immediate coast where the waves will be but also have a camera or two in the back bays of the region to capture the rise of the water with each high tide cycle. All of the cameras will be available to view at no cost right here on the HurricaneTrack.com site. I will post the links once they are operational beginning tomorrow morning."
oh, Doc!!!!!!
Quoting 759. VAstorms:



You can than fracking for that. Seismographic maps of that area show no fault lines.

Not the case. A very prominent fault cuts through the NW part of Pawnee County, around where the epicenter of the quake was.

https://weather.com/safety/earthquake/news/oklaho ma-fault-map
RE: vis0 post 786

It was named Egadsoblob while still over Africa. Do not expect much development until the west Caribbean or the Gulf.
Quoting 814. number4steel:

turned out pretty good. science proved smoking was bad for your health . we all agreed.now a whole lot of people and states want burn a joint. Inhaled smoke from tobacco is bad but pot is good? really? science is good only when needed politically.


You need to educate yourself on what is in cigarettes and why it causes cancer.

Among the 250 known harmful chemicals in tobacco smoke, at least 69 can cause cancer. These cancer-causing chemicals include the following (1, 2, 5):
Link
Acetaldehyde
Aromatic amines
Arsenic
Benzene
Benzo[%u03B1]pyrene
Beryllium (a toxic metal)
1,3%u2013Butadiene (a hazardous gas)
Cadmium (a toxic metal)
Chromium (a metallic element)
Cumene
Ethylene oxide
Formaldehyde
Nickel (a metallic element)
Polonium-210 (a radioactive chemical element)
Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs)
Tobacco-specific nitrosamines
Vinyl chloride
If I am not mistaken, this seems to have stalled.

Not good.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
In my opinion, the chances for 92L should be lowered to absolute zero (0 %) at short range (48 hours) and medium range (5 days). It has been disorganizing this morning, and any threat will be for itself.
Quoting 823. SPShaw:

Mark Sudduth of HurricaneTrack(dot)com and now infamous Cedar Key Cam guy is headed to N.J. to set up some new storm surge cams. Here's what he had to say:

"I am preparing to head up to New Jersey from North Carolina later today. I will bring with me one state of the art weather station to set up along the coast along with four of my unmanned cameras. You may have seen the incredible live video from the one I deployed in Cedar Key on Friday. The storm surge ripped off a huge piece of wooden deck/walkway and sent it crashing in to the camera itself, knocking it off the pole it was mounted to. The battering from the waves eventually caused the cam to shut off but not before revealing the danger and destructive power of storm surge. I went back and recovered the camera yesterday fully intact and operational. The Pelican case it is housed in did its job and protected everything inside. I will bring that same camera with me to New Jersey.

My plan will be to deploy the four cams along the coast of New Jersey from the Cape May area north to include Brigantine for sure and then two other locations that I will work on as I make my way north. I want to be able to show you the immediate coast where the waves will be but also have a camera or two in the back bays of the region to capture the rise of the water with each high tide cycle. All of the cameras will be available to view at no cost right here on the HurricaneTrack.com site. I will post the links once they are operational beginning tomorrow morning."



I'll see if I can get hose cam feeds embedded at tropicalwatch dot com

Quoting 814. number4steel:

turned out pretty good. science proved smoking was bad for your health . we all agreed.now a whole lot of people and states want burn a joint. Inhaled smoke from tobacco is bad but pot is good? really? science is good only when needed politically.


You, uhmmm, you're to compare tobacco to cannabis? Haha. 

You don't see tobacco brownies, do you?

Why not? It's safer than smoking the product. 

Maybe tobacco should be a schedule 1 narcotic. It's a stimulant, "drug". What medical purpose does it serve?

Your argument is becoming less relavent to the masses, by the day. Sorry

Even FL is likely to go medical in 2016, a gerrymandered, red state. But then the people speak and it turns out it's not so red. 

Keep watching 'Reefer Madness', if you must, but the times have changed and your views are quickly becoming antiquated, even amongst your fellow, right wing, conservative comrades. 

Thanks for your humorous post, now, here's 92 el.  ;)

I am sitting on 2nd beach in Middletown RI and there is no surf. Water is like like a sheet of glass. Dark clouds overhead though.
Good Morning Folks and checking in from Tallahassee post-Hermine and my last post on Thursday afternoon.

We were very lucky in that no big trees came down on our lot and just several branches about 10 miles north of downtown Tallahassee. Neighbor next door has a big oak "bent" over the house and the neighbor across the street had a big one come down but narrowly missing the house. The amazing thing is that both of those two trees were bent/dropped in the same direction; this means a powerful gust at some point out of the North and consistent with Tally being on the West side of the storm as it made it's way inland.

We were lucky; with St. Marks being directly due to our South, Tall never got the right side of the storm but folks in Madison and Suwannee Counties were hit pretty hard from tree falls.

We got power back last night (about 36 hours without) and I have no regrets about boarding up for a Cat 1; was just trying to protect windows in the event of large branches.

The most amazing thing for me is that Tallahassee Noaa Radio, out of their FSU office, actually went off the air during the storm and still not on the air as of yesterday morning; that was scary not having power, and no Noaa warnings, in the event of a tornado headed our way.................I hope they address this issue with generators unless their broadcast tower went down.

At the end of the day, we were lucky here and nothing compared to other places including the damages in Louisiana from their recent bout with floods.