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Hurricane Hermine Poised to Make First Hurricane Strike on Florida in 11 Years

By: Jeff Masters 10:32 PM GMT on September 01, 2016

Widespread storm surge was barreling into Florida’s northeast Gulf Coast late Thursday night with the approach of Hurricane Hermine. The warm waters of the eastern Gulf fueled an well-advertised strengthening of Hermine on Thursday afternoon and evening. Hermine was an 80-mph Category 1 hurricane as of the midnight update from the National Hurricane Center. NHC placed the center of Hermine about 40 miles southeast of Tallahassee, FL, just an hour or two from making landfall. Thunderstorms were wrapped around a semi-distinct eye, and heavy bands of rain were clearly evident on radar. An especially intense belt of rain was moving across the northernmost FL peninsula late Thursday.

A Hurricane Warning remained in effect from Suwanee River to Mexico Beach, FL. A variety of other hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings plastered the Gulf and Atlantic coasts from Florida all the way to northern New Jersey (see below for more on Hermine’s expected track). With Hurricane Gaston also active in the Central Atlantic, we now have multiple hurricanes in the Atlantic for the first time since the first week of September 2012, when Hurricane Leslie and Hurricane Michael were both active. Hermine will be the first hurricane to strike Florida since Wilma hit South Florida as a Category 3 storm in October 2005. Hermine will also be the first hurricane to strike the U.S. since Hurricane Arthur hit North Carolina on July 3, 2014 as a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds.


Figure X. Hermine approaching landfall in Florida at 6:15 pm EDT September 1, 2016.

Observations this evening
A Personal Weather Station (PWS) at Alligator Point in the northern eyewall of Hermine measured sustained winds of 59 mph, gusting to 78 mph, at 10:25 pm EDT, and had picked up 2.15” of rain since 11 am.

Tyndall AFB Tower C, located about 20 miles south of Apalachicola, Florida, recorded sustained winds of 61 mph, gusting to 79 mph, at 8:50 pm EDT. The anemometer on the tower is at an elevation of 35 meters, which is higher than the standard 10 meters used to reference surface winds, so these winds need to be scaled down to what they would be at a height of 10 meters for a valid comparison to other surface wind measurements.

A PWS on Cedar Key, Florida recorded sustained winds of 44 mph, gusting to 52 mph, at 11:15 pm EDT.

A coastal C-MAN station at Keaton Beach, Florida, in the stronger eastern eyewall of Hermine, measured sustained winds of 45 mph, gusting to 58 mph, at 11 pm EDT.


Figure 2. Regional radar of Hurricane Hermine at 11 pm EDT September 1, 2016, with three time traces of the storm surge at water gages in Apalachicola, Cedar Key and Tampa, Florida. The storm surge (green line) had peaked in Tampa at this time, but was still rising at Apalachicola and Cedar Key. Surge images were taken from NOAA Tides and Currents page for Hermine.


Storm surge a major concern overnight
Even after Hermine’s expected landfall between 1 and 2 am Friday near the head of Apalachee Bay, the strong winds east and south of its center will continue to shove water into the bay and points east along Florida’s Big Bend. This is the bay’s first direct hit from a hurricane in half a century—since Alma, in 1966. NHC warned that surge levels could reach as high as 9 feet in parts of Apalachee Bay and the Big Bend. Fortunately, this is one of the most sparsely settled parts of the Florida coast, but widespread inundation in such places as the flood-prone community of Cedar Key will have a major impact. By 11 pm EDT Thursday, the surge had climbed to 7.2 feet at Cedar Key and 4.0 feet at Apalachicola. HIgh tide will be around 3 am EDT in Cedar Key, which means that the total water level (surge plus tide) could still be rising even after the surge itself peaks.

According to the U-Surge project, headed by storm surge expert Hal Needham, Hermine is likely to produce the highest water level for many locations between St. Marks and Clearwater since the March 1993 “Storm of the Century”. That extremely powerful winter-type storm produced a record surge of 6 to 12 feet across the region.

The forecast for Hermine
Hermine will be rolling along or near the Southeast coast on Friday, emerging off North Carolina’s Outer Banks by Saturday. At that point, Hermine will probably have undergone at least a partial conversion into an extratropical (post-tropical storm), deriving energy from atmospheric dynamics rather than from the heat energy of the ocean.

By later in the weekend, however, Hermine may regain some of its tropical characteristics. Computer models indicate it will slow down Sunday into Monday and perhaps even carry out a tightly looping path east of the Delmarva and south of Long Island, NY. Ocean temperatures are more than 2°C above average in this region. This may be warm enough to allow Hermine’s winds to restrengthen close to hurricane force near its center by Monday or Tuesday, regardless of whether it is classified as a tropical or post-tropical storm by that point. Even if it does become post-tropical, NHC will continue issuing advisories on Hermine as long as it remains a significant threat to land.


Figure 3. The official track forecast for Hurricane Hermine as of 11 pm EDT Thursday. Hermine’s dramatic slowdown is evident in the period from Sunday to Tuesday.

The biggest impact from Hermine after landfall will be a swath of torrential rain stretching from far north Florida to eastern North Carolina, extending from the coast up to 200 miles inland. Flash flood watches are in effect from Georgia to Virginia along a belt northwest of tropical storm warnings. Rains of 5” - 10”, with local totals on the order of 15”, will affect far northern Florida and southern Georgia, with 4” - 8” totals widespread up to the Carolinas. Rains of 1” - 5” and gusty winds will work their way up the Delaware, New Jersey, and New York coastlines from Saturday into Sunday and perhaps Monday--a very unwelcome prospect for Labor Day beach goers.

A zone of very heavy rain (perhaps 5” to 10”) and stronger wind could develop in parts of the eastern Delmarva and/or southern New Jersey on Sunday and Monday, depending on how close ex-Hermine gets to the Mid-Atlantic coast when it slows down.

Hurricane Watch continues for Hawaii ahead of Category 3 Lester
It’s quite rare to have two separate parts of the United States threatened by two hurricanes at the same time. So it was on Thursday night, with Hurricane Lester continuing to bear down on Hawaii. As of 11 pm EDT Thursday (5:00 pm HST), Lester was about 600 miles east of Hilo. Lester is again a major hurricane, with top sustained winds of 125 mph. Computer models agree on taking Lester along a west-northwest path that will parallel the Hawaiian island chain on Saturday. Uncertainty remains over how strong Lester will be at that point (most likely a Category 1 hurricane) and how close its path will be to the islands. The model guidance is now in fairly close agreement on a track just north of the islands, but perhaps within 100 miles—close enough to require continued vigilance.

We’ll be back on Friday with more than one update on the evolving Hermine situation.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters
T. S. Hermine - Venice Jetties - south.jpg
T. S. Hermine - Venice Jetties - south.jpg
Wind gust to 30 mph, this is high tide running about 2-3 feet above normal.
Dock before Hermine Landfall
Dock before Hermine Landfall
Our dock has been significantly underwater all day as Hurricane Hermine approaches.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

HH are back online and just penetrated the eye again, pressure is up slightly, looks like she might be done strengthening, hopefully! Cloud tops are warming again, good sign that we aren't going to get a cat 2.
Hermine is really getting it's act together this evening, thankfully it will be inland soon. Prayers to all those in Hermine's path.

Quoting 402. Articuno:



Not sure if an illusion or not, but it looks to be moving due east, satellite speaks otherwise though
In this case I think coastal convergence is tending to nudge the track a little more east towards Apalachee Bay, worst case for surge there.
Quoting 497. stuffonastick:



Getting close. I'd give it another hour-ish before landfall.


Is it possible Cantore gets a part of the eastern eyewall(so to speak) in Cedar Key?
Quoting 494. KodiakMan4x4:



Just because Florida is in the middle of a storm does not mean someone cannot talk about something else. Most people in the storm either don't have power, or have power and are prob watching tv or out the front door. Relax, this isn't TWC, a local station, or some major news outlet people generally watch to get info on a storm.


Thank you, KodiakMan4x4. So, how do you feel about the Canadian forecast model?
Quoting 496. thetwilightzone:

we lost the Cedar Key, FL web cam


Its back
Quoting 497. stuffonastick:



Getting close. I'd give it another hour-ish before landfall.

I would say just over 2 unless she jogs straight north. Looks like around 30 miles til she hits the coast on her current heading.
Quoting 504. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Is it possible Cantore gets a part of the eastern eyewall(so to speak) in Cedar Key?


We should only be so lucky. ;)
Quoting 506. daddyjames:



Its back




for now at lest
Quoting 471. charlottefl:



Look how far to the SE the strong winds extend.....


Is that 83 knots I see in there? No. Can't be.
Quoting 496. thetwilightzone:

we lost the Cedar Key, FL web cam


My friends down there riding it out said that its getting much worse
Cogonc1: You'll be ok. Stay in an interior room or bathroom if need be. Let us know, if you can how you're doing.
Quoting 500. wunderkidwx:


Im in Ganesville. The storm is very relevant to me.



All storms are relevant to me, even if they're not coming my way.
Quoting 504. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Is it possible Cantore gets a part of the eastern eyewall(so to speak) in Cedar Key?


No, cedar key is a good 80 miles from the landfall location, it's no where close to be honest.
How big are the tides of the Gulf of Mexico 1-2ft? because people are saying its near low tide and the water is looking really high on the St. Marks Camera.
Quoting 510. FunnelVortex:



Is that 83 knots I see in there? No. Can't be.


Your eyes do not deceive you.
So is it weaking now or still getting a little stronger?
No surprise the Cedar Key webcam went out. The surge is nearly 7 feet and rising quickly. Now the tide is coming in as well. Looks like their record high water level is in serious jeopardy.

Link
Quoting 487. Ed22:

83knots strengthening Hurricane Hermine.
Latest Dvorak T #s 4.5/4.5 which would be a 90 mph hurricane but IDK if the NHC goes by those numbers.
Those are flight level winds
Base Radial Velocity.


Note the blues and green.


The witch is there, bringing the water in.

This is really,bad mojo.

Take a moment to realize what we r witnessing.

🌊🌘🌛🌎





Quoting 510. FunnelVortex:



Is that 83 knots I see in there? No. Can't be.
86kts actually, but at flight level, which translates to the 80mph being issued by the NHC
Even though low tide, surge starting to really come in at Cedar Key.



Storm Surge Cam: Cedar Key, FL

Water easily going over the sea wall now, not just confined to waves.
Quoting 511. JrWeathermanFL:



My friends down there riding it out said that its getting much worse


The link that someone in the blog gave is back up.
Quoting 519. JazzChi:

No surprise the Cedar Key webcam went out. The surge is nearly 7 feet and rising quickly. Now the tide is coming in as well. Looks like their record high water level is in serious jeopardy.

Link


Its working fine now.
Quoting 514. pipelines:



No, cedar key is a good 80 miles from the landfall location, it's no where close to be honest.


Agreed, but that band that set up over Cedar Key is likely close to the same intensity as the "eye".
Latest center fix indicates intensity is leveling off. Should make landfall as a solid Cat 1 though. An observation I and others have made is that the reduction factor between flight level and surface winds seems fairly large. In other words, the strong flight level winds we're seeing aren't mixing down very well. Doesn't matter much; storm surge and flooding rains will be the primary threats, with wind secondary.
i have been placed on standby by a ton of different catastrophe adjusting firms.

they expect tons of claims

the elongation of hermine due to the trough feeding the northern quads in combination with the potential strengthening over land coupled by the fact that this is expected to ride the eastern coastline up to jersey has all insurance carriers realizing the number of claims will be in the 100's of thousands simply due to the sheer amount of landmass and the accompanying insured properties in those areas.

do not be surprised if this elongates once it makes landfall and wind speeds do not decrease.  this is not an average run of the mill hurricane setup.  i would not be surprised to see this eventually organize more off of the carolina coast and eventually turn inland up the eastern seaboard,.....in a year with Gaston it can only be assumed that hurricanes will be able to exist and actually grow over what is usually considered to be colder waters.....
Quoting 787. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

09L/H/H/C1



A picture is worth a thousand words...these images tell quite a lot. Hoping and praying that everyone is safe and hunkered down along the big bend and panhandle area.
Hermine was definitely not one to be underestimated and just goes to show how quickly tropical storms -given the right conditions can quickly intensify becoming destructive hurricanes. The models have been doing rather well to their credit namely the HWRF & HRRR. Resilient systems like Hermine (Cape verde Origin) always need to be closely monitored and tend to eventually become an extreme weather event once favourable conditions for their development occurs...BTW which is why eyes must be kept on former 92L as it approaches the area near the islands where the "Lesser Antilles rule" should take effect from there on... of-course Time will tell.

God Bless us All & especially our fellow Floridian Brothers and Sisters!
Quoting 528. MAweatherboy1:

Latest center fix indicates intensity is leveling off. Should make landfall as a solid Cat 1 though. An observation I and others have a made is that the reduction factor between flight level and surface winds seems fairly large. In other words, the strong flight level winds we're seeing aren't mixing down very well. Doesn't matter much; storm surge and flooding rains will be the primary threats, with wind secondary.


Not mixing down much is a very good thing at this point!
Quoting 456. wunderkidwx:

heading NE now in my opinion. Perry is the bulls eye imo
Steinhatchee and Fish Creek look likely to get it bad as well.
Quoting 469. HaoleboySurfEC:

Surge will continue well after landfall, well into the high tide. Winds will be piling from the west after landfall. Could be catastrophic in certain locations. Bad news.


Just took a look at the Google Map for Cedar Key. That is a remarkably vulnerable area .... I don't think I'd stay there even for a cat 1 .... everything is super low and boggy ....
Just got back from Cedar Key. Had to get out before high tide as the causeway will be under water and I didn't want to spend the night.
I know everyone is focused on the landfalling eyewall, but take a step back for a moment and look at the broader radar: Link

No longer have feeder bands or squall lines, just one MASSIVE arm already inland over N FL and about to swing around and hit middle of the W coast and move across central FL.
The water came up a lot in the last 25 minutes on the St Marks Surge Webcam
The weather channel has told us the "couple from Ohio going home" story like 5 times now
There seems to be quite a bit of lightning in that big feeder band on the east side, according to LightningMaps.
Quoting 530. NatureIsle:



A picture is worth a thousand words...these images tell quite a lot. Hoping and praying that everyone is safe and hunkered down along the big bend and panhandle area.
Hermine was definitely not one to be underestimated and just goes to show how quickly tropical storms -given the right conditions can quickly intensify becoming destructive hurricanes. The models have been doing rather well to their credit namely the HWRF & HRRR. Resilient systems like Hermine (Cape verde Origin) always need to be closely monitored and tend to eventually become an extreme weather event once favourable conditions for their development occurs...BTW which is why eyes must be kept on former 92L as it approaches the area near the islands where the "Lesser Antilles rule" should take effect from there on... of-course Time will tell.

God Bless us All & especially our fellow Floridian Brothers and Sisters!



That may be the most awesome sat loop I have ever seen! 1000+ AWESOME!!!!!!!!!!!!
Debby did the same thing.

Acted like she wanted to run into the panhandle, then turned right and slammed into Steinhatchee. Just seems to be a pattern I guess....

Means more wind for me
Quoting 535. Methurricanes:

The water came up a lot in the last 25 minutes on the St Marks Surge Webcam


Do you have a link for the webcam?
Cedar Key taking a beating
Nice and windy here. Should Tampa be worried about anything else?
So far East Central Florida, North Brevard, has been spared. We have a wicked line come through around 5pm but since then there hasn't been much. It looks like we are the lucky ones. Praying for all of you who are in the path. As much as it is exciting, the storm is dangerous and will leave widespread devastation. I am sure Patrap and Portlight will be on it though!
Pretty cool site for lightning!

Lightning
LOL we got twin hurricanes with the same ever thing
Quoting 540. Envoirment:



Do you have a link for the webcam?


http://www.ustream.tv/channel/YASbYUZFccF
Quoting 539. JrWeathermanFL:

Debby did the same thing.

Acted like she wanted to run into the panhandle, then turned right and slammed into Steinhatchee. Just seems to be a pattern I guess....

Means more wind for me


Maybe its Deadman's Bay and the river that leads to it. Following water...
Quoting 540. Envoirment:



Do you have a link for the webcam?
Link
If these webcams are showing a 3-4 foot rise, I can't even imagine what a 25 foot storm surge would even look like. It seems impossible. (my friend from Mississippi assures me it's not)
Quoting 246. Envoirment:

Not to detract from the Hermine discussion, but the next couple weeks look primed for more activity. MJO has finally turned up in the Atlantic and vertical instability is responding:



Let's hope that those to be affected by Hermine won't be affected by another storm in the near future!




Even ex92 is happier tonight.
Its amazing to think that the North East USA has been hit with more hurricanes than Florida the past 11 years.
Quoting 546. Michfan:



http://www.ustream.tv/channel/YASbYUZFccF


Thanks.

The Cedar Key cam is getting scary - more and more water starting to go over the sea wall. Tide coming in should see a big rise in the water there.
Quoting 542. Tampa2016:

Nice and windy here. Should Tampa be worried about anything else?


It's about to get a whole lot windier. There's that huge, slow moving, lighting-filled, heavy rain band coming your way that probably packs some very gusty winds.
Quoting 495. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Hopefully least populated. Say a prayer.




Along that region of the coast, it primarily is natural reserves, state parks. That is good.

For the person that said they were in Perry - IMHO, it does look as if you are going to get the worst of it.
Sorry, and stay safe.
Quoting 549. muddertracker:

If these webcams are showing a 3-4 foot rise, I can't even imagine what a 25 foot storm surge would even look like. It seems impossible. (my friend from Mississippi assures me it's not)
actually the storm surge at Cedar Key is 7 feet, although, it is 4 feet above would would be high tide.
Well this storm has escalated quickly. Been watching this and everyone talk about this storm (on this blog) for two weeks now, I believe the storm will be in the 105-110 mph at landfall. Which is Crazy to consider after watching it struggle for so long. This will definitely be one to remember for me.
Hermine has one foot in the Gulf and another tapping the AtlantyAtlantyic over the warm SST stoked gulf stream.

Presslord is finishing up his preps as they help other finish their boat preps as well.

Its gonna b a long night into the fray.

Pray.



🌊🎑🌘
Lights just shut out on St. Marks cam, looks very eerie. Spooky.
Quoting 549. muddertracker:

If these webcams are showing a 3-4 foot rise, I can't even imagine what a 25 foot storm surge would even look like. It seems impossible. (my friend from Mississippi assures me it's not)


Look up the Katrina storm chase video. Insane, and insane that they attempted to chase Katrina in the first place.
Quoting 554. FunnelVortex:



It's about to get a whole lot windier. There's that huge, slow moving, lighting-filled, heavy rain band coming your way that probably packs some very gusty winds.


Tampa Bay is going to see 60mph+ with this line. It is very slow moving and going to cause problems.

Quoting 553. Envoirment:



Thanks.

The Cedar Key cam is getting scary - more and more water starting to go over the sea wall. Tide coming in should see a big rise in the water there.
I am not sure if that restaurant will make it thru Hermine. High tide is 307am.
Quoting 529. odinslightning:

i have been placed on standby by a ton of different catastrophe adjusting firms.

they expect tons of claims

the elongation of hermine due to the trough feeding the northern quads in combination with the potential strengthening over land coupled by the fact that this is expected to ride the eastern coastline up to jersey has all insurance carriers realizing the number of claims will be in the 100's of thousands simply due to the sheer amount of landmass and the accompanying insured properties in those areas.

do not be surprised if this elongates once it makes landfall and wind speeds do not decrease.  this is not an average run of the mill hurricane setup.  i would not be surprised to see this eventually organize more off of the carolina coast and eventually turn inland up the eastern seaboard,.....in a year with Gaston it can only be assumed that hurricanes will be able to exist and actually grow over what is usually considered to be colder waters.....



On the post, it said it probably would be less than a billion dollar storm, and somebody said many millions. This could very well be a 5B event in Florida including the commercial claims. In the scenario you are describing, it could very well approach $10 Billlion when it is all said and done.
Checking in real quick from ground zero (TLH)

No power... Increasing wind and rain... But we are safe! I think the next band will be "the one"
We also can't forget Lester...

Quoting 557. kingcane:

Well this storm has escalated quickly. Been watching this and everyone talk about this storm (on this blog) for two weeks now, I believe the storm will be in the 105-110 mph at landfall. Which is Crazy to consider after watching it struggle for so long. This will definitely be one to remember for me.


It won't.


A jog back to the North.. Tallahassee might be in the center after all. Remains to be seen.
Quoting 551. CaribBoy:





Even ex92 is happier tonight.


I think everyone would be happier if ex 92L died for good.
Looks like some sort of debris on the Cedar Key cam.....I had the perfect opportunity to ride the storm out down there with a friend and didn't get to. Mandatory evacuations for non residents.
Quoting 564. MandyFSU:

Checking in real quick from ground zero (TLH)

No power... Increasing wind and rain... But we are safe! I think the next band will be "the one"


Good to hear Mandy, prayers are with you.
Quoting 555. daddyjames:





Along that region of the coast, it primarily is natural reserves, state parks. That is good.

For the person that said they were in Perry - IMHO, it does look as if you are going to get the worst of it.
Sorry, and stay safe.



This thing is going to do most of its damage inland.

It's going to bring its heavy winds inland and dump it's heavy rain in the hills further north as it winds down as a TS going up the east coast. Flood watches are in place for a lot of areas.
Jacksonville Florida here.. So far only light rain, breezy conditions. It's just a waiting game at this point.
Hope all are safe. Schools closed here and in Brunswick, Ga. Tomorrow. Looks like landfall will be in about an hour or so.
573. IDTH
Quoting 565. JrWeathermanFL:

We also can't forget Lester...



OH?
Quoting 464. bluenosedave:



It's "feeling" the coast. Interaction with the landforms is nudging the storm center slightly eastwards. Same thing happened along the coast of Nova Scotia with Bob a few years back.
I was in Booth Bay on a boat the day before Bob, it was 90 degrees in the subsidence, but we left that night. Good timing, pure luck.
She's gonna deepen or maintain for a good time more even inland.



Quoting 561. Bucsboltsfan:



Tampa Bay is going to see 60mph+ with this line. It is very slow moving and going to cause problems.




I am concerned here in bradenton. Although we are on the southern end of the rainband, the ground is oversaturated due to yesterday's rains of record proportions (11 inches near Bayshore H.S. and 8 inches at my place.) If this sets up and "trains" slowly over an area, it could cause more damage than what Tallahassee may see due to winds and trees that could cause damage. But we will see... Gabrielle in 2001 had many trees come down when that came ashore...
Quoting 571. FunnelVortex:



This thing is going to do most of its damage inland.

It's going to bring its heavy winds inland and dump it's heavy rain in the hills further north as it winds down as a TS going up the east coast.


Agree that it'll be damaging inland as well. But if it had to land in one of the least populated ares n Florida - it did so. Not wishing any ill on those folks that are there, and no one will be impacted by the landfalling eye of the storm directly, which is a blessing.

Aligator Point may catch the outer eyewall as it passes close by.
Every hurricane is unique, even when classified with the same category. Some produce more tornados than others. Some produce more rain or surge. The is because of so many varying factors. So never say its just a minimal cat1 hurricane. There has been times when a tropical depression has caused more damage than a hurricane. I know, been through many.
579. MahFL
Just lost power here briefly in Orange Park.
Quoting 485. GBguy88:

She's showing up here in Alligator Point. I can hear a roar out toward the Gulf.
Y'all should see / feel the eyewall, such as it is.... especially if it jogs a bit further west before it passes ....
Quoting 542. Tampa2016:

Nice and windy here. Should Tampa be worried about anything else?
Rain and surge, I'd guess....
Pretty windy here in Fort Walton Beach. Dodged a bullet- stay safe everyone.
582. beell


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1617
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0901 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...SE GA...FAR SRN SC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 460...

VALID 020201Z - 020430Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 460 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 460. THE TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND ANOTHER WATCH WILL BE NEEDED TO COVER THE THREAT.

DISCUSSION...HURRICANE HERMINE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 50 MI SE OF AAF AND CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD TOWARDS THE FL BIG BEND. TBW VAD HAS SHOWN A GRADUAL VERTICAL EXPANSION OF THE STRONGEST WINDS...WITH WINDS OF 50 KT NOW REACHING NEAR 4 KM. TLH VAD-DERIVED HODOGRAPH HAS ALSO SHOWN A GRADUAL EXPANSION OVER THE PAST HOUR AS 1-2 KM WIND SPEEDS INCREASE. VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE AND SEVERAL STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RAIN BAND ARCHING FROM TLH TO CTY TO ABOUT 45 MI W OF PIE HAVE SHOWN TRANSIENT LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH LAFAYETTE AND DIXIE COUNTIES HAVE A MORE NNWLY STORM MOTION...RESULTING IN INCREASED SRH AND STREAMWISE VORTICITY /BASED ON THE TLH VAD/...WHICH MAY ACCOUNT FOR THE RECENT INCREASE IN ROTATION RECENTLY OBSERVED WITH THESE STORMS.

WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. TORNADO WATCH 460 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 03Z AND ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED TO ADDRESS THE CONTINUED THREAT. GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY COVER PORTIONS OF NRN FL...SE GA AND FAR SRN SC.

..MOSIER/EDWARDS.. 09/02/2016
Quoting 543. RevInFL:

So far East Central Florida, North Brevard, has been spared. We have a wicked line come through around 5pm but since then there hasn't been much. It looks like we are the lucky ones. Praying for all of you who are in the path. As much as it is exciting, the storm is dangerous and will leave widespread devastation. I am sure Patrap and Portlight will be on it though!


It's supposed to pivot through eventually, as the storm begins to move inland. And then the moisture trail is supposed to persist through the weekend, with persistent SW steering flow. We should (theoretically) get some decent totals.
584. MahFL
Quoting 572. pocoehonda:

Jacksonville Florida here.. So far only light rain, breezy conditions. It's just a waiting game at this point.
Hope all are safe. Schools closed here and in Brunswick, Ga. Tomorrow. Looks like landfall will be in about an hour or so.


Landfall is several hours away, it has to be the center of the storm, not the inner rain band.
Quoting 319. Gearsts:




Hopefully one or two storms will come out of this moisture.

I love wishcasting lol
Quoting 560. ProPoly:



Look up the Katrina storm chase video. Insane, and insane that they attempted to chase Katrina in the first place.


I saw the one where Reed Timmer and his buddy filmed from jail...I think they got "arrested" for their own safety. I remember them making jokes about swimming or wading back to the highway.
Does anyone know the level of the Cedar Key Seawall? Right now the tide level is about 7.6 feet and it is below the sea wall.
Getting really bad on the Cedar Key webcam, tides a coming in.

Link
Quoting 567. yankees440:



A jog back to the North.. Tallahassee might be in the center after all. Remains to be seen.


I think that Hermine will thankfully kick straight through the Tallahassee/Perry uprights. Not too much going on at the coast there except the St. Marks Coast Guard Station, so the damage won't be as crazy as if she hit a more populated area. Unfortunately, the surge will impact many dozens of miles down the coast, as we're seeing.
Quoting 586. muddertracker:



I saw the one where Reed Timmer and his buddy filmed from jail...I think they got "arrested" for their own safety. I remember them making jokes about swimming or wading back to the highway.


They got arrested because the police saw the monitors in thier car and so the police thought they were looting.
looks to go dark soon there, the building is getting pounded.
Quoting 564. MandyFSU:

Checking in real quick from ground zero (TLH)

No power... Increasing wind and rain... But we are safe! I think the next band will be "the one"
Stay safe!
Quoting 568. ProPoly:



I think everyone would be happier if ex 92L died for good.


The GFS doesn't have it. The Euro doesn't have it. The CMC has it.
Quoting 575. Patrap:

She's gonna deepen or maintain for a good time more even inland.






Correct.

And that worries me. I worry about Press. We're inland about 20 miles, but he's on the water.
Quoting 584. MahFL:



Landfall is several hours away, it has to be the center of the storm, not the inner rain band.

Both local met and twc said about an hr or so.. I just didn't pull that info from thin air.
Quoting 590. FunnelVortex:



They got arrested because the police saw the monitors in thier car and the police thought they were looting.


lol...I've never heard that :) Probably for their own good, anyhow?


The ceiing has dropped to round 1000ft,the tropical atmosphere has reached us as thunder and lightning is coming in.





[Adjusts nerd glasses] I believe that was an Expecto Patronum spell.
Quoting 439. OracleDeAtlantis:

780. OracleDeAtlantis
4:42 AM GMT on September 01, 2016


Someone last night said that this storm reminded them of the name of a character in Harry Potter.

Her name is actually spelled "Hermione," but it has the same root.

Regardless, the countdown to landfall of Hermine has been more than spellbinding. It's been spectacular, spectacular.




Boy if she had another 12 hours over water she would have been a MONSTER....
eyewall replacement cycle right now. Still moving e of ne
Quoting 587. Methurricanes:

Does anyone know the level of the Cedar Key Seawall? Right now the tide level is about 7.6 feet and it is below the sea wall.


Cedar Key does not have a seawall......that piece on the web cam that you think you see is actually just how the sidewalk was made there. Every other place on the island has nothing. The risen sidewalk right there is about 4 feet tall.

Usually the ocean is about 6 feet below that lapping up against a shell bed.

That is no sea wall though, just made so the road is even all the way across
Quoting 595. pocoehonda:


Both local met and twc said about an hr or so.. I just didn't pull that info from thin air.


Norcross just said 3 hours
Quoting 587. Methurricanes:

Does anyone know the level of the Cedar Key Seawall? Right now the tide level is about 7.6 feet and it is below the sea wall.

TWC just showed Ceader Key live-cam with water about 2 feet over the seawall.
Weather Channel just mentioned me as "people".

I am one of the people seen on the Cedar Key cam at 7pm!
Quoting 600. wunderkidwx:

eyewall replacement cycle right now. Still moving e of ne


No.
Quoting 602. Hurricanes101:



Norcross just said 3 hours


Dry air entrainment on the west side of the eye. Good news. No further intensification over water.
Apalachee Bay Courtesy of iWindsurf


Tyndall AFB Tower Courtesy of iWindsurf

Quoting 604. depalma13:

Weather Channel just mentioned me as "people".

I am one of the people seen on the Cedar Key cam at 7pm!



Wow! High tide's still a few hours away! Hunker down and stay safe! :)
Quoting 600. wunderkidwx:

eyewall replacement cycle right now. Still moving e of ne

Excuse me?
Quoting 605. StormJunkie:



No.

Absolutely yes. Apparent on radar.
Quoting 603. MrTornadochase:


TWC just showed Ceader Key live-cam with water about 2 feet over the seawall.
Link
The water is below the seawall (that I was informed isn't really a seawall", with significant spashover.
Quoting 606. nash36:



Dry air entrainment on the west side of the eye. Good news. No further intensification over water.



Is that why the eye no longer looks circular on IR?
Quoting 606. nash36:



Dry air entrainment on the west side of the eye. Good news. No further intensification over water.

interesting that IR shows clouds warming but radar shows slight strengthening of storms in the Eyewall and the eye still well defined
Quoting 600. wunderkidwx:

eyewall replacement cycle right now. Still moving e of ne


um no EWRC going on with this. Storm is wobbling NNE-NE towards landfall
Quoting 608. TimTheWxMan:




Wow! High tide's still a few hours away! Hunker down and stay safe! :)


I left a couple hours ago, I didn't want to spend the night out there.
Quoting 610. wunderkidwx:


Absolutely yes. Apparent on radar.

I'm only seeing one eyewall structure.

Quoting 609. franckinator:


Excuse me?

What would you call it. Apparent on radar and on satellite.
How is that house on the alligator point cam on TWC going to survive? Good grief.
Quoting 594. nash36:



Correct.

And that worries me. I worry about Press. We're inland about 20 miles, but he's on the water.


Hi...
The Cedar Key live cam is amazing in the sense of power. I hope all those places along there sand-bagged their businesses.
Quoting 614. Hurricanes101:



um no EWRC going on with this. Storm is wobbling NNE-NE towards landfall

Trying my best here guys. Im not a professional met. No need to pile on.
Quoting 584. MahFL:



Landfall is several hours away, it has to be the center of the storm, not the inner rain band.


several hours? it's around 25 miles from the furthest possible landfall location, it's going quite a bit faster than 3 miles an hour...
Quoting 619. presslord:



Hi...


You fairing ok Press?
Quoting 612. TimTheWxMan:




Is that why the eye no longer looks circular on IR?


It's a Cat 1, they don't have circular eyewalls. That was an illusion created by the dry air from this morning.
Quoting 617. wunderkidwx:


What would you call it. Apparent on radar and on satellite.


I don't believe this storm really had a complete and solid eyewall. I usually associate ERC with major hurricanes. I don't know if that's correct.
Looking like we're post-peak. Someone got lucky tonight. Still going to be a wallop!

Someone mentioned earlier that it reminded them of Sandy in the Caribbean. I thought the exact thing. Similar synoptics, somewhat.

I thought cat 2, cat 2. Now....

Shouldn't weaken too dramatically over land, and it's far from over from this thing.



Where's Kori? Pat said he talked to him. I tried messaging him, but no response. Why couldn't this hit on a sun or mon when I'm off work???
Quoting 614. Hurricanes101:



um no EWRC going on with this. Storm is wobbling NNE-NE towards landfall



There was a little dry air entrainment from the southwest.
Quoting 594. nash36:



Correct.

And that worries me. I worry about Press. We're inland about 20 miles, but he's on the water.


yeah....he is a bit nuts..
Quoting 619. presslord:



Hi...


You know this is headed to The Carolinas?
two eyes

   WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. TORNADO WATCH 460 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 03Z AND ANOTHER
TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED TO ADDRESS THE CONTINUED THREAT. GIVEN
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY
COVER PORTIONS OF NRN FL...SE GA AND FAR SRN SC.

..MOSIER/EDWARDS.. 09/02/2016


Quoting 622. pipelines:



several hours? it's around 25 miles from the furthest possible landfall location, it's going quite a bit faster than 3 miles an hour...



It'll probably be an hour, hour and a half given that it's moving at 14 mph.
Looks like the HH is heading home, Hermine will remain a category 1 hurricane unless it's changed post season.
Quoting 611. Methurricanes:

Link
The water is below the seawall (that I was informed isn't really a seawall", with significant spashover.


I would disagree with you about being below the elevated sidewalk. However, it definitely has over-topped it now.
Quoting 631. StormJunkie:



You know this is headed to The Carolinas?


Press*olinas.
Quoting 619. presslord:



Hi...


Hiya, Press.

You all ready to go?
Quoting 619. presslord:



Hi...
Hope you got your boat tied down okay ....
Quoting 632. Grothar:

two eyes




and a nose and a mouth. looks like Bert from Bert and Ernie.
Quoting 632. Grothar:

two eyes





So it's not a cyclops then?
Is the St. Marks cam still up?
Good Lord,


I'm 5 miles from lake an it just boomed like a Saturn 5 ignition sequence.

Never in my 56 yes have I ever heard DAT.

Everyone heard it.



Quoting 602. Hurricanes101:



Norcross just said 3 hours

On twc web page it said couple of hrs.. That was at 10 pm
My local met said about and hr or so...
Sorry I even posted anything at all
Hastily drawn analysis of banding I just did on RadarScope.

NWS is reporting fog in Apalachicola. How is that possible? Link
Quoting 630. tiggeriffic:



Yeah...I am sure bohicket wont let people stay...the house is on folly....im not that far inland...only 3 miles from downtown myself



How they gonna keep us from stayin?!
Looks way less impressive than it did two hours ago


Tor warning north of Horseshoe Beach.
Would be amusing if she weakened to a 70 mph tropical storm just before landfall, thus preserving Florida's hurricane drought...
Quoting 644. pocoehonda:


On twc web page it said couple of hrs.. That was at 10 pm
My local met said about and hr or so...
Sorry I even posted anything at all


Just the nature of this place, you'll get used to it.
Ima make a run out to the key late tonight during high tide to see if we get the breach I anticipate. The water has receded only about 5-8" since last high tide and now, we're basically at low. Tonight should be the worst for us, surge-wise. 0233 is high tide. Winds are considerably stronger than earlier. Sustained, probably only 20-25, on the water, but much less intermittent than then. Manasota Key is very vulnerable right now. Wish they'd just let Blind Pass open. Nature intended it to be that way. I can't emphasize enough how much worse shape that island is than after '04-'05. It's almost like the ocean is getting taller, or maybe the land is just sinking. idk
Quoting 635. pipelines:

Looks like the HH is heading home, Hermine will remain a category 1 hurricane unless it's changed post season.

Recon is still in Hermine and don't appear to be leaving at the moment
Quoting 645. 1900hurricane:

Hastily drawn analysis of banding I just did on RadarScope.




You gonna sign it?
We're all good here...seriously....secure....provisioned...she's designed to take this....and Stormjunkie: Shut your piehole...
now 3


Quoting 628. GatorWX:

Looking like we're post-peak. Someone got lucky tonight. Still going to be a wallop!

Someone mentioned earlier that it reminded them of Sandy in the Caribbean. I thought the exact thing. Similar synoptics, somewhat.

I thought cat 2, cat 2. Now....

Shouldn't weaken too dramatically over land, and it's far from over from this thing.



Where's Kori? Pat said he talked to him. I tried messaging him, but no response. Why couldn't this hit on a sun or mon when I'm off work???


Left a msg to contact me when able.

When he does I will pass it along here.

I'll b up thill the morning likely.
People who are comparing this to Sandy or suggesting it will become Sandy 2.0 need to remember that Sandy was an absolute freak of nature that was only allowed under very precise conditions.

This is nothing like Sandy, nor will it be in the future.
Quoting 635. pipelines:

Looks like the HH is heading home, Hermine will remain a category 1 hurricane unless it's changed post season.


Honestly, Hermine has done a great job. She doesn't need to be a cat 1 to show how powerful she was. Just a few days ago she was invest 99L and the entire blog was basically convinced it had dissipated. She finally became a TD and struggled. She has made a remarkable recovery the past two days and made a great run for a cat 2 hurricane... and she broke Florida's hurricane drought.

Hats off to Hermine.
Outer eyewall is impacting the entirety of the Big Bend coast at once. Things will only go downhill from here for the next few hours until the backside of the eye has moved past

Tallahassee Radar
Going to be nasty here Friday and Friday night. Storm helped the grouper bite this afternoon, 34 big fish. Big swell out of southwest started around 2pm. Water has cooled to 82-83F south of Cape Lookout. I will try to give storm updates tomorrow.
Good Lord,


I'm 5 miles from lake an it just boomed like a Saturn 5 ignition sequence.

Never in my 56 yes have I ever heard DAT.

Everyone heard it.



Quoting 648. MJ0ZS4:

Looks way less impressive than it did two hours ago





Dry air intrusion. But don't be fooled, it's still a dangerous hurricane, and will retain hurricane force winds well inland.
Quoting 652. GatorWX:

Ima make a run out to the key late tonight during high tide to see if we get the breach I anticipate. The water has receded only about 5-8" since last high tide and now, we're basically at low. Tonight should be the worst for us, surge-wise. 0233 is high tide. Winds are considerably stronger than earlier. Sustained, probably only 20-25, on the water, but much less intermittent than then. Manasota Key is very vulnerable right now. Wish they'd just let Blind Pass open. Nature intended it to be that way. I can't emphasize enough how much worse shape that island is than after '04-'05. It's almost like the ocean is getting taller, or maybe the land is just sinking. idk


Prolly both.
Coast experiencing northern eyewall conditions. Should be quite a night in Cedar Key up towards Perry and Cross City.
Quoting 648. MJ0ZS4:

Looks way less impressive than it did two hours ago





The dry air pocket was very deceptive. And don't get me wrong, it put on an impressive round of intensification there at the end and it is still a dangerous storm. It just wasn't ever a Cat 2 like was implied.

558  
WFUS52 KTAE 020235  
TORTAE  
FLC029-067-123-020300-  
/O.NEW.KTAE.TO.W.0034.160902T0235Z-160902T0300Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
1035 PM EDT THU SEP 1 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTHWESTERN DIXIE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...  
SOUTHEASTERN TAYLOR COUNTY IN FLORIDA...  
SOUTHERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...  
 
* UNTIL 1100 PM EDT  
 
* AT 1034 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF STEINHATCHEE...MOVING  
NORTH AT 50 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF  
NORTHWESTERN DIXIE...SOUTHEASTERN TAYLOR AND SOUTHERN LAFAYETTE  
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS: JENA...JONESBORO...  
TENNILLE...COOKS HAMMOCK...SALEM...HINES...SHAMROCK...CARBUR AND  
CLARA.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN  
A MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 2949 8321 2953 8341 3003 8344 2997 8297  
TIME...MOT...LOC 0234Z 190DEG 53KT 2960 8330  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...0.00IN  
 
 
 
30-PULLIN  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.


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Basically nothing between I-4 and I-95. What a joke.
Quoting 645. 1900hurricane:

Hastily drawn analysis of banding I just did on RadarScope.




oh great, another 9!
Quoting 648. MJ0ZS4:

Looks way less impressive than it did two hours ago



Looks like JAX is going to be in the thick of it in about an hour ....
We'really really good' y'all
Looks like the shallow waters r disrupting the eye....rains r getting getting steady but not bad in Jax with this first real band we have seen....more to follow I'm sure
Quoting 650. ParanoidAndroid:

Would be amusing if she weakened to a 70 mph tropical storm just before landfall, thus preserving Florida's hurricane drought...



If enough dry air gets into the system, you might be right. XP
My goodness, isn she goregous? Stay safe down there panhandlers/bigbenders
Quoting 647. presslord:



How they gonna keep us from stayin?!


if you go back, I changed it...you are nuts enuf to stay regardless...so there :P
Looks like eyewall didn't really form which is a relief for this area. Flooding no doubt but grateful the tides and timing didn't cumulate.

Looking elsewhere very quiet
680. OBXER
They jumped the gun here on Ocracoke and called the damn evacuation at 5 pm tonight
Looks like an impressive band is going to be heading towards Perry.
Quoting 663. Patrap:

Good Lord,


I'm 5 miles from lake an it just boomed like a Saturn 5 ignition sequence.

Never in my 56 yes have I ever heard DAT.

Everyone heard it.








It's Florida Night on WU, Pat. While that seemed like quite a boomer, it's not Florida. :p
Quoting 669. cabice:

Basically nothing between I-4 and I-95. What a joke.


wait until tomorrow. Heating of the day and that part of Florida will likely get some action
Kori:



It was supposed to hit the ec when I was off!
Quoting 655. presslord:

We're all good here...seriously....secure....provisioned...she's designed to take this....and Stormjunkie: Shut your piehole...
are you sure its a hole may just be a dry spot
Hmmm.... Steinhatchee seems to get these 'cane-based tornadoes a lot.....
Quoting 663. Patrap:

Good Lord,


I'm 5 miles from lake an it just boomed like a Saturn 5 ignition sequence.

Never in my 56 yes have I ever heard DAT.

Everyone heard it.





You should have heard the rocket that blew up today, impressive.
Quoting 652. GatorWX:

Ima make a run out to the key late tonight during high tide to see if we get the breach I anticipate. The water has receded only about 5-8" since last high tide and now, we're basically at low. Tonight should be the worst for us, surge-wise. 0233 is high tide. Winds are considerably stronger than earlier. Sustained, probably only 20-25, on the water, but much less intermittent than then. Manasota Key is very vulnerable right now. Wish they'd just let Blind Pass open. Nature intended it to be that way. I can't emphasize enough how much worse shape that island is than after '04-'05. It's almost like the ocean is getting taller, or maybe the land is just sinking. idk



Be careful. The waves are crashing over that sidewalk there!
Quoting 672. presslord:

We'really really good' y'all
I know u are
Quoting 594. nash36:



Correct.

And that worries me. I worry about Press. We're inland about 20 miles, but he's on the water.


I'm on Sullivan's... the lack of activity around here has been eerie. Not real sure what to expect on the coast - seems the met on Fox24 is downplaying what we're going to get. Hopefully it'll be mild and Press and his boat will be ok.
Quoting 648. MJ0ZS4:

Looks way less impressive than it did two hours ago





Perhaps in part due to the fact it's over very shallow water with very little TCHP. And that the eye wall is scraping land as well, disrupting it somewhat.
Quoting 672. presslord:

We'really really good' y'all
Just don't let me have to come up there to the Carolinas for ya ....
;o)
Quoting 653. MrTornadochase:


Recon is still in Hermine and don't appear to be leaving at the moment



Tampa's gonna get nailed pretty good, at some point tonight.
Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
TORNADO WARNING     TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 1048 PM EDT THU SEP 1 2016
TORNADO WARNING     TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 1045 PM EDT THU SEP 1 2016
TORNADO WARNING     TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 1035 PM EDT THU SEP 1 2016
Quoting 677. win1gamegiantsplease:

My goodness, isn she goregous? Stay safe down there panhandlers/bigbenders



Not even panhandlers are crazy enough to stand on the side of the highway tonight! XD
Water easily over the seawall, or whatever it is, now in Cedar Key. Will continue rising with low tide now over.
Quoting 657. Patrap:



Left a msg to contact me when able.

When he does I will pass it along here.

I'll b up thill the morning likely.


Cool! Thanks Pat!
The Weather Channel is embarrassing itself. OMG! OMG! A LEAF just landed on the ground! See? Right there! Green foliage is on the ground.

The wind is picking up in Florida. If you look hard, you can see tree limbs actually moving! AAAAAGGGGGHHHHH!! It's sooooo horrible. There is water on the roadway! Everyone needs to take shelter NOW!
Quoting 649. TimTheWxMan:

Tor warning north of Horseshoe Beach.


I think we'll see more of these go up as Hermine goes further east with that nasty right side flowing from the south.
Quoting 618. violet312s:

How is that house on the alligator point cam on TWC going to survive? Good grief.


I have been wondering that for the past hour
Quoting 686. BahaHurican:

Hmmm.... Steinhatchee seems to get these 'cane-based tornadoes a lot.....



Didn't Debby and Andrea both landfall near Steinhatchee?
I hope they retire the name Hermine, it broke the hurricane drought, put up a hell of a fight in it's journey to Florida, and is causing damage
Quoting 658. FunnelVortex:

People who are comparing this to Sandy or suggesting it will become Sandy 2.0 need to remember that Sandy was an absolute freak of nature that was only allowed under very precise conditions.

This is nothing like Sandy, nor will it be in the future.


No one is comparing this to Sandy (unless I have those users on ignore). The only references to Sandy I've seen were the comparisons to Sandy's structure while it was a major hurricane in the Caribbean, which do bare some similarities. The similarities end there.
704. chays
Quoting 674. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



What exactly are all those blow-ups?
GEFS ensembles says we are not out of the woods. A few more systems in September to come
Quoting 698. RetainingH2O:

The Weather Channel is embarrassing itself. OMG! OMG! A LEAF just landed on the ground! See? Right there! Green foliage is on the ground.

The wind is picking up in Florida. If you look hard, you can see tree limbs actually moving! AAAAAGGGGGHHHHH!! It's sooooo horrible. There is water on the roadway! Everyone needs to take shelter NOW!


I have been watching TWC all day and I feel they have done a great job of covering this.
Quoting 703. CybrTeddy:



No one is comparing this to Sandy (unless I have those users on ignore). The only references to Sandy I've seen were the comparisons to Sandy's structure while it was a major hurricane in the Caribbean, which do bare some similarities. The similarities end there.


the comparisons I have seen are that it whipped up the coast...stalled out a bit...and some mets on TV said something about it acting like a nor'easter.....ta da...you have a sandy comparison
Strangely quiet here. No wind, rain, or animal noises. I live in the woods outside St. Augustine. We might see some weather before the night is over.
Well, spiral band came through... Looks like possible tornado formed over Epcot, then moved NNE towards windermere and Gotha. Also, small unconfirmed hook echo with tight rotation came by about 2 miles east of my house @Champions gate.

Besides the scare with EAS, I think we're done for the night.
Quoting 650. ParanoidAndroid:

Would be amusing if she weakened to a 70 mph tropical storm just before landfall, thus preserving Florida's hurricane drought...

Amusingly good for those in the path, and less reason for insurance companies to suck my life's blood.
Will be interesting to see how much rain we get in the obx from this storm.

Stay safe and good luck to those in FL!
Quoting 704. chays:


What exactly are all those blow-ups?

Believe it or not, bugs. Trillions of insects that come out at night being picked up on radar.
Note: these are flight level winds.

90 knots
(~ 103.6 mph)
Quoting 698. RetainingH2O:

The Weather Channel is embarrassing itself. OMG! OMG! A LEAF just landed on the ground! See? Right there! Green foliage is on the ground.

The wind is picking up in Florida. If you look hard, you can see tree limbs actually moving! AAAAAGGGGGHHHHH!! It's sooooo horrible. There is water on the roadway! Everyone needs to take shelter NOW!


speaking of embarrassing oneself....
Quoting 713. CybrTeddy:

Note: these are flight level winds.

90 knots
(~ 103.6 mph)


strongest we have seen at flight level
northern edge of the dry slot is now making landfall


...EYE OF HERMINE SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS... ...LIFE-THREATENING SURGE AND FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED...
11:00 PM EDT Thu Sep 1
Location: 29.7°N 84.3°W
Moving: NNE at 14 mph
Min pressure: 984 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph
Quoting 709. Unfriendly:

Well, spiral band came through... Looks like possible tornado formed over Epcot, then moved NNE towards windermere and Gotha. Also, small unconfirmed hook echo with tight rotation came by about 2 miles east of my house @Champions gate.

Besides the scare with EAS, I think we're done for the night.
That's well out from the eye of the storm .... y'all may get nailed by the next band as it rotates through, so don't take it too easy ....
Recon just found 85-90kt winds at ~4,500 ft.



That should support a 75kt intensity.
First of all, that's a pretty cool radar image and not like one I've seen in awhile. That eastern band looks like it could potentially be tornadic. Lots of embedded dots of stronger cells. These tc derived tornadoes spin up fast and end fast. Most, probably?, have little, if any warning. Just looks capable, fyi.



I bet we hear of some decent surge values when it's said and done. I'll be surprised if not.
Those blow-up looking images are other radar sites.  During evening hours you often see temperature inversion or false echos.  The radar beam gets bent toward earth and strikes ground clutter.  The energy is reflected back as a return... sometimes called false returns.
Quoting 704. chays:




What exactly are all those blow-ups?



Frogs are loving the weather in Jim Cantore's shot.
723. beell
Quoting 712. VegasRain:


Believe it or not, bugs. Trillions of insects that come out at night being picked up on radar.


Believe it or not, that would be incorrect.
Radar "Blooms"

Quoting 682. TimTheWxMan:





It's Florida Night on WU, Pat. While that seemed like quite a boomer, it's not Florida. :p


My post was showing the size of this circulaton..which is creating the storm here to Savannah.

rleans Severe Watches & Warnings NOAA Weather Radio
Watches & Warnings
Special Statement
Issued: 9:27 PM CDT Sep. 1, 2016 – National Weather Service

... A line of strong thunderstorms will affect Orleans... west central
St. Bernard... south central St. Tammany and northeast Jefferson
parishes...

At 926 PM CDT... radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Lacombe to 6 miles north of east New
Orleans. Movement was southwest at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
New Orleans... Slidell... Chalmette... Harvey... Marrero... Timberlane...
east New Orleans... Metairie... Belle Chasse... Jefferson... Gretna...
Westwego... Estelle... Woodmere... Arabi... Terrytown... Lacombe...
Bridge City... Elmwood and Lakefront Airport.

Lat... Lon 3001 9019 3002 9018 3003 9004 3005 9003
3004 9002 3005 8999 3014 8988 3015 8987
3014 8987 3023 8983 3025 8987 3026 8998
3029 8998 3045 8982 3004 8982 2978 9013
time... Mot... loc 0226z 032deg 18kt 3033 8989 3017 8993


TD

I'm well aware of what's occurring with a Land falling Hurricane cane,esp at night.


725. beell
Quoting 645. 1900hurricane:

Hastily drawn analysis of banding I just did on RadarScope.




Looks like an eye!
Quoting 683. Hurricanes101:



wait until tomorrow. Heating of the day and that part of Florida will likely get some action


Tampa (and virtually the entire west coast) is about to get cracked by a long, wide, and slow feeder band with 60+ winds, and a smaller one had multiple tornado warnings earlier in the day. I think you will be getting what you want later tonight and tomorrow. Right up I-4.
Our local Met said Brevard County is sitting pretty from here on out. So thankful but feel terrible for everyone being hit. Be safe all.
728. chays
Quoting 721. RickWPB:

Those blow-up looking images are other radar sites.  During evening hours you often see temperature inversion or false echos.  The radar beam gets bent toward earth and strikes ground clutter.  The energy is reflected back as a return... sometimes called false returns.



Thank you! They looked like false echo...never knew the reason for that, though.
The "Southwood" Tallahassee (KFLTALLA161) station is reporting winds 66 mph gusting to 110 mph. Questionable?
Seeing and hearing lightening and thunder from Round 1 at Bohicket...
732. THL3
Quoting 716. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

northern edge of the dry slot is now making landfall





HA! A dry sense of humor.
Quoting 704. chays:


What exactly are all those blow-ups?


Quoting 674. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




I don't know, but they are Vincent van Gogh-ish. I like them
Quoting 725. beell:



Looks like an eye!

That IS the eye!
Quoting 716. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

northern edge of the dry slot is now making landfall



i absolutely love how your phrasing this for those "users" who said that its "not an eye" -_-
Quoting 690. chsstormgirl:



I'm on Sullivan's... the lack of activity around here has been eerie. Not real sure what to expect on the coast - seems the met on Fox24 is downplaying what we're going to get. Hopefully it'll be mild and Press and his boat will be ok.


It appears the worst will actually be inland, rather than the coast. However, you guys are not in for an easy day by any means. Stay safe!

Alan Gerard ‏@Wxmanms1
Area of 100+ mph winds just offshore at about 3500 ft. #Hermine #flwx





Link
Quoting 725. beell:



Looks like an eye!

Or an ear.
Quoting 721. RickWPB:

Those blow-up looking images are other radar sites.  During evening hours you often see temperature inversion or false echos.  The radar beam gets bent toward earth and strikes ground clutter.  The energy is reflected back as a return... sometimes called false returns.



Thank you I have always wondered what the sudden returns showing up around evening even under clear skies
Tampa's high tide should be fairly close to ours, here. Ours is 0233. Recently, past half hr, winds have picked up pretty good. It must be gusting 35ish on the water here. It seems around 30 here, I have no anemometer, but I pay attention. The big band is about 70-80 miles offshore and nothing close by. Idk if that's an indication that that band is pretty strong, but Tampa better keep an eye on it. May come in close to high tide. I haven't checked their tides, or I'd've stated them.

I will use dbl contractions and that's that.

Blowing hardest it has all day though and no imminent cells close by. Hmm. Guess I'll look their tide schedule up.
Jim's in his element.

It has been a LONG time since he got back to doing what he truly loves; Hurricane live-shots.
Quoting 736. nash36:



It appears the worst will actually be inland, rather than the coast. However, you guys are not in for an easy day by any means. Stay safe!


my husband keeps trying to convince me to hook up the camper in the morning and pull it to SANTEE and set up during all this crap.....ummmmm.....NO....not going INLAND to the woods where a tree will fall on me....
Quoting 738. franckinator:


Or an ear.
Quoting 738. franckinator:


Or an ear.

If it's an ear, it's a hearicane ear.
Quoting 729. HurrMichaelOrl:

The "Southwood" Tallahassee (KFLTALLA161) station is reporting winds 66 mph gusting to 110 mph. Questionable?


I would look around at other reports to confirm but it's not impossible. Winds at flight level can mix down to the surface and radar is indicated over 100mph wind (elevated).
Quoting 738. franckinator:


Or an ear.


Or an upside down 6
Charleston Nexrad

Base Radial Velocity .50 elv.


Quoting 721. RickWPB:

Those blow-up looking images are other radar sites. During evening hours you often see temperature inversion or false echos. The radar beam gets bent toward earth and strikes ground clutter. The energy is reflected back as a return... sometimes called false returns.




Also in Central TX, along the I35 corridor, the hundred of thousands of bats that fly out from the overpasses during their nighttime search for food can be seen on the radar.
This is hands down the best post I've ever seen on here. 
Quoting 598. rxse7en:

[Adjusts nerd glasses] I believe that was an Expecto Patronum spell.


Torcon of 7 for the coastal part of the ILM watch area Friday. Classes still a go for UNCW, but a tornado watch last year cancelled classes without a hurricane/ts and the risk is higher for this event.
90kt flight-level winds being reported in the eastern semicircle. Coastline starting to creep into the periphery of the eye.

Watching Florida Home Owners Insurance rates go up by the minute.

Quoting 752. Dakster:

Watching Florida Home Owners Insurance rates go up by the minute.




As if were not already used to that. Sigh.
Quoting 658. FunnelVortex:

People who are comparing this to Sandy or suggesting it will become Sandy 2.0 need to remember that Sandy was an absolute freak of nature that was only allowed under very precise conditions.

This is nothing like Sandy, nor will it be in the future.

Just a related point,

Last vortex message Hermine had
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17C at a pressure alt. of 1521m
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21C at a pressure alt. of 1523m

Next to the last vortex message for Sandy had
I. 10 C / 1524 m
J. 19 C / 1527 m

Center Fix Location: 71 miles (115 km) to the SSE from Atlantic City, NJ, USA

Edit for correction.
Quoting 742. tiggeriffic:



my husband keeps trying to convince me to hook up the camper in the morning and pull it to SANTEE and set up during all this crap.....ummmmm.....NO....not going INLAND to the woods where a tree will fall on me....


No joke. As Cantore said, the pine is a soft wood. I am SURROUNDED by them in my backyard, and my hackles are already up ahead of this thing.
Tornado warning near me apparently traveling 80 miles an hour...wow.

30 miles inland and we are getting a ton of wind
Quoting 709. Unfriendly:

Well, spiral band came through... Looks like possible tornado formed over Epcot, then moved NNE towards windermere and Gotha. Also, small unconfirmed hook echo with tight rotation came by about 2 miles east of my house @Champions gate.

Besides the scare with EAS, I think we're done for the night.


Saw that hook echo on Channel 9 too. I am in Casselberry. Haven't gotten much of anything other than sprinkles today.
I am only ranging up sj
but that could be hard to do
even in the non cat 2 dry slot
maybe its not a hurricane eye after all storm

Quoting 753. Michfan:



As if were not already used to that. Sigh.


One of the reasons I left the state... Couldn't afford to pay more for insurance than my mortgage was... Not like they ever went down in the 11 years of no storms... NOW, there is a reason to really jack them up.

I just hope it is only property damage and not a loss of life issue.

Looks like Hermine is doing a little RI before landfall -- not good.
Quoting 730. presslord:

Seeing and hearing lightening and thunder from Round 1 at Bohicket...


Round 1 of many rounds, my friend. My aunt and uncle live out on Bohicket, but they're touring the country in a motorcoach right now, so they're not here for the fireworks.

They're gonna be pretty pissed when they get home for the cleanup, though.
Quoting 755. nash36:



No joke. As Cantore said, the pine is a soft wood. I am SURROUNDED by them in my backyard, and my hackles are already up ahead of this thing.


check out the santee campground....PINE TREE CITY... I got a sick feeling that when we do go up on Saturday that there will be trees down right were our site is.....
Near 60mph sustained winds have been reported at Bald Point, FL, with gusts to near 80 mph.

Link
Cedar Key cam getting super interesting
Haven't watched TWC in years.

578  
WFUS52 KTAE 020319  
TORTAE  
FLC129-020345-  
/O.NEW.KTAE.TO.W.0038.160902T0319Z-160902T0345Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
1119 PM EDT THU SEP 1 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTHEASTERN WAKULLA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...  
 
* UNTIL 1145 PM EDT  
 
* AT 1119 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ST. MARKS...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 30 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
ST. MARKS AROUND 1130 PM EDT.  
CRAWFORDVILLE AROUND 1140 PM EDT.  
 
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE  
SHADEVILLE...HYDE PARK...PORT LEON AND WAKULLA BEACH.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN  
A MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3009 8410 3004 8416 3016 8442 3023 8426  
TIME...MOT...LOC 0319Z 118DEG 26KT 3008 8415  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...<.75IN  
 
 
 
ADL  
 
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Quoting 758. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I am only ranging up sj
but that could be hard too do
even in the non cat 2 dry slot
maybe its not a hurricane eye after all storm




lol ;-)

It's an "eye". But it isn't an eye that would normally produce a cleared CDO. The dry slot from earlier helped keep the CDO clear. Overall, it was still a strengthening system late in the day. And if it had another 12 hrs over water, we may have had a strong Cat 2 with a circular cleared eyewall.
I can't even begin to imagine how strong Hermine could have been if it had even one more day over water or if it started strengthening a day earlier. That would hypothetically be like what, cat 4? Florida may be getting its first hurricane landfall in almost 11 years, but lets just say that the damage being done could have been far worse. I wouldn't say lucky though, unless the damage doesn't turn out to be that bad...
Railing has washed away in CedarKey as the water continues to rise. Must be much worse in Apalachee Bay.
Link
Quoting 750. win1gamegiantsplease:

Torcon of 7 for the coastal part of the ILM watch area Friday. Classes still a go for UNCW, but a tornado watch last year cancelled classes without a hurricane/ts and the risk is higher for this event.


You guys get cancelled classes for tornado watches??? Geez, lol. Universities and primary schools have school during tornado watches, and especially during a clear tornado threat (schools are safer than a lot of homes for the students).
Quoting 656. Grothar:

now 3



If you turn it sideways it looks like a smiley :)
Quoting 710. guygee:


Amusingly good for those in the path, and less reason for insurance companies to suck my life's blood.


It's already named, the insurance companies are going to pop you either way. In addition, if there are multiple U.S. storms and events totalling 20-25 Billion, reinsurance rates always skyrocket the next year. The bloodsucking looks like it will get worse.
Quoting 763. Mediate:

Cedar Key cam getting super interesting


Railing on the surge cam came off
looks like the surge has knocked down a few of those handrails on the Cedar Key webcam.
Quoting 730. presslord:

Seeing and hearing lightening and thunder from Round 1 at Bohicket...
its just the beginning be 2 days before you clear out
Cantore should've gone to the eastern side. It's a totally different cyclone on that side.
In other news, HHs are heading for Lester, which has unexpectedly restrengthened to a major hurricane. Hurricane Watches are in effect for parts of Hawaii, and although unlikely to make landfall, it seems that Lester will still produce tropical-storm-force winds to the state by the weekend.
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/YASbYUZFccF?utm_campa ign=m.facebook.com&utm_source=ustre.am%2F1rAmM&utm _medium=social&utm_content=20160901145353

Not sure this restaurant is gonna make it. Just watched multiple pieces of the railing over what was a sidewalk wash away and the water looks to be very close to the first deck of the restaurant now. Streetlights are out now, wondering if the restaurant is on generator, can't believe they still have power. So sorry, this is hard to watch (flashbacks and empathy).
Quoting 763. Mediate:

Cedar Key cam getting super interesting


How does this place still have power?
Quoting 770. unknowncomic:

Railing has washed away in CedarKey as the water continues to rise. Must be much worse in Apalachee Bay.
Link


I swear when I was watching it....the gray man appeared in the right side of the screen....I logically know it was just water and weather....but it was creepy none the less....
Quoting 781. Sharkicane:



How does this place still have power?


I wish someone would go out and clean off the camera lens. (kidding) Maybe backup generator?
My friend says that all his clams are gone....just what we all had feared...
Its a tactical attack this night by mother nature.

She bided her time for days, and now the assault is underway.

Taking advantage of the night, by first knocking out power.

Then under darkness the wind driven surge is going to cut off access and communication.

Those without light in the eyewall will be alone,using only cell phones to light the way.

And behind her, she's gonna leave a flood.

Then up the coast the swirling assault will go.

Be ready.

Stay alert,stay safe.


Quoting 768. StormJunkie:



lol ;-)

It's an "eye". But it isn't an eye that would normally produce a cleared CDO. The dry slot from earlier helped keep the CDO clear. Overall, it was still a strengthening system late in the day. And if it had another 12 hrs over water, we may have had a strong Cat 2 with a circular cleared eyewall.

if it had 12 more hours over open waters it may have be close too a major
but its best the way it has gone
still first light I am sure there will be some damage and flooding and a few people with stories too tell
the night is far from over and its got a bit to go before its done further north yet
Quoting 781. Sharkicane:



How does this place still have power?


They're getting absolutely pummeled.
Quoting 782. tiggeriffic:



I swear when I was watching it....the gray man appeared in the right side of the screen....I logically know it was just water and weather....but it was creepy none the less....
Think I located the restaurant on Google Earth. If it was the right one and it sure seemed to be a wood looking building it said it was permanently closed.
I am heading to bed....Charleston SC here....and my round will be coming soon enough and figure I need to get some sleep while it is quiet....
I'm looking at various PWS and buoy reports and gusts pushing 70 rt now seem to be the norm

Link

Fingers crossed for and prayers for y'all tonight.
something large just hit the ground. but only a thud, not a crunch, so it missed a barn. pretty gusty now. dumped the overflowing rain gauge at sunset.. 6+" since noon. the yard was flooding at one point - this sandy, soak-up-the-rain-before-you-can-blink yard. sounds fierce out there now. dogs restless. an unsettling night.
Atlantic graphics:
(click to enlarge)

Quoting 783. Dakster:



I wish someone would go out and clean off the camera lens. (kidding) Maybe backup generator?


*raises hand to volunteer*
Quoting 650. ParanoidAndroid:

Would be amusing if she weakened to a 70 mph tropical storm just before landfall, thus preserving Florida's hurricane drought...
Whoever introduced the term " hurricane Drought " was wrong...A drought means that there is a shortage...The fact that there has not been a major hurricane to strike Florida in 11 years is a great thing, and a blessing to those who were hit by the many hurricanes before Wilma..May the hurricane drought continue for many years..A drought that brings peace and prosperity,,,pfft
Quoting 774. Bigwinds:



It's already named, the insurance companies are going to pop you either way. In addition, if there are multiple U.S. storms and events totalling 20-25 Billion, reinsurance rates always skyrocket the next year. The bloodsucking looks like it will get worse.

The part that does not make sense is that my home on the Space Coast is in a 160 MPH wind zone, yet a major hurricane has never made landfall in Brevard County in recorded history. I put out big money for a new roof with good ties to the structure, all documented, but that helped only a little.
looks like the band coming into the Bay Area is weakening as it gets closer.
landfall looks to be between 1230am and 1am EDT
From a certain skippers onboard radar near Charleston.

2.4 nm range

Quoting 790. tiggeriffic:

I am heading to bed....Charleston SC here....and my round will be coming soon enough and figure I need to get some sleep while it is quiet....


Just been through Round 1 with a pretty gusty squall and have another round about to move through. Radar shows I should start getting pretty good sustained winds here in about 2 hours.
Quoting 750. win1gamegiantsplease:

Torcon of 7 for the coastal part of the ILM watch area Friday. Classes still a go for UNCW, but a tornado watch last year cancelled classes without a hurricane/ts and the risk is higher for this event.


No schools cancelled in Pender or New Hanover. I wouldn't expect them to be at this point. Maybe early dismissal
 gotta give the weather channel a break guys.

its been years since they had an event

they want to push ratings with this.

what the should be focusing on is what this is going to do over a wide swath of the southeast.

building codes are more stringent in florida.. georgia 60 miles north, not as much.

this is going to maintain wind speed and energy. the atlantic low is feeding it.  this isn't a landfall and dissipate in 3-4 hours, its gonna go on and on and on and on and on and on.  a ton of tornadoes may spring up guys.  it is hot as hell down here in the deep south, and very dry.

when that hot high pressure meets this cold air coming in., bam! ignition

tornadoes will be a big story with Hermine. wanna bet?
Quoting 799. CaribBoy:


do you see what i see ?
Hi all, had a quick peek at work a few hours ago, thinking landfall would happen while I was there, just to see it had made the swoop east. Just catching up now. 99L/TD9/Hermine trolling til the end!

Hope everyone's ok. my cousin said they got power knocked out about 3 hours ago, towards Tampa where they are.
Quoting 787. nash36:



They're getting absolutely pummeled.


bumping the webcam link to the top for late arrivals like me.

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/YASbYUZFccF
florida feel lucky. it could have been worse. 1 more day out to sea organizing like it was 2 days ago and this easily could have been a stacked cat 3 with a huge diameter.


Cabaret Voltaire -- Automotivation
Quoting 778. MiamiHurricanes09:

Cantore should've gone to the eastern side. It's a totally different cyclone on that side.


Quoting 803. odinslightning:

 gotta give the weather channel a break guys.

its been years since they had an event

they want to push ratings with this.

what the should be focusing on is what this is going to do over a wide swath of the southeast.

building codes are more stringent in florida.. georgia 60 miles north, not as much.

this is going to maintain wind speed and energy. the atlantic low is feeding it.  this isn't a landfall and die in 3-4 hours, its gonna go on and on and on and on and on and on.  a ton of tornadoes may spring up guys.  it is hot as hell down here in the deep south, and very dry.

when that hot high pressure meets this cold air coming in., bam! ignition

tornadoes will be a big story with Hermine. wanna bet?



They have done a great job IMO and they should be focusing on what they are - a landfalling system in Florida. They have meteorologists stationed up the coast as well and will be there for those impacts too.
Quoting 794. Astrometeor:



*raises hand to volunteer*


I'll hold the rope, dude.
"Doppler velocity data suggests some of the strongest winds observed thus far are slowly orbiting this way." -Kori at 10:21 PM
they should lose power soon at cedar key here is a still shot just after this the last wave passed the top rail

 
271  
WFUS52 KTAE 020339  
TORTAE  
FLC029-067-123-020415-  
/O.NEW.KTAE.TO.W.0039.160902T0339Z-160902T0415Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
1139 PM EDT THU SEP 1 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTHWESTERN DIXIE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...  
SOUTHEASTERN TAYLOR COUNTY IN FLORIDA...  
SOUTHWESTERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...  
 
* UNTIL 1215 AM EDT  
 
* AT 1139 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR STEINHATCHEE...MOVING NORTH AT 55 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
STEINHATCHEE AROUND 1145 PM EDT.  
 
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE  
ATHENA...JENA...JONESBORO...TENNILLE...SAN PEDRO JUNCTION...COOKS  
HAMMOCK... SALEM...CARBUR AND CLARA.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN  
A MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 2948 8330 2948 8345 2999 8354 3004 8335  
3002 8319  
TIME...MOT...LOC 0339Z 184DEG 52KT 2958 8338  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...<.75IN  
 
 
 
30-PULLIN  
 
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Quoting 804. TheDeathStar:

do you see what i see ?


92L may be back soon?
Latest GFS has it veering off the coast at SC, bummer for us on the coast in NC.
Whatever cam is running Cedar Key needs to do some advertising. The cam that could! Shit went from bad to infinity really fast.

And the restaurant is still an ongoing entity. Why would a closed down place pay for power? Which is amazingly still up.

A few picnic tables now available somewhere inland.
Quoting 789. unknowncomic:

Think I located the restaurant on Google Earth. If it was the right one and it sure seemed to be a wood looking building it said it was permanently closed.

It was open a year ago, I was there.
Quoting 733. daddyjames:





I don't know, but they are Vincent van Gogh-ish. I like them

Storms?
I remember seeing a year long conus storm video time lapsed that runs maybe 20 minutes that had this during one season I think it was hail season not this time of year though
I am correct that storm surge should not be an issue along Shem Creek? That is the only issue I am concerned about at this point.
Quoting 799. CaribBoy:





CaribBoy is extremely jealous :(



Hey Guygee, nice to see your face about again :)
Quoting 811. Astrometeor:

"Doppler velocity data suggests some of the strongest winds observed thus far are slowly orbiting this way." -Kori at 10:21 PM


I should add this was in Eastern time, so a bit old. I told him to enjoy his vacation.
Quoting 799. CaribBoy:




haha! :p Kidding. Careful what ya wish for. Far as I know, you all get your share and as soon as you realize, there will be one at your doorstep. Recall hearing of some biggens before the sats.
Quoting 812. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

they should lose power soon at cedar key here is a still shot just after this the last wave passed the top rail




Cedar key probably won't. Believe me. I've spent my whole life there and everyone is pretty good at holding the fort down. No one evacuated. Too much at stake. Too many livelihoods to just abandon even for this short amount of time.
I was not expecting that wood dock to come floating up in the cedar key cam. It scared the hell out of me.
Quoting 814. Hurricanes101:



92L may be back soon?
looks like it!! MJO is back and now it's coming to life again
Quoting 820. stormycreek89:

I am correct that storm surge should not be an issue along Shem Creek? That is the only issue I am concerned about at this point.


You will very likely see a couple feet tomorrow evening at high tide
Quoting 814. Hurricanes101:



92L may be back soon?
92L will be slow to organize much like Hermine because of the large size. If it is able, it seems it will be larger in circulation size than Hermine.
Quoting 781. Sharkicane:



How does this place still have power?


The wonders of engineering.
Can someone link the Cedar Key cam please?
Atlantic graphics:
(click to enlarge)

Quoting 820. stormycreek89:

I am correct that storm surge should not be an issue along Shem Creek? That is the only issue I am concerned about at this point.


You are correct. This one is coming from the "wrong" coast for that. 1-2' surge at best.
It's horrible to laugh at, but some of the comments in the cedar key web cam are killing me:


"Uh oh more sea treasure approaching railing"

"it is another railing from a pirate ship"
I doubt the old Cedar Key honeymoon cottage will still be there tomorrow.
just drove down alt 19 from dunedin to clearwater, lots of surge people gotta be supprised
Landfall

Quoting 827. presslord:



You will very likely see a couple feet tomorrow evening at high tide


Thanks. I have some light prep to do then.
Ex 92L starting to fire up convection in the Central Atlantic.
Quoting 786. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


if it had 12 more hours over open waters it may have be close too a major
but its best the way it has gone
still first light I am sure there will be some damage and flooding and a few people with stories too tell
the night is far from over and its got a bit to go before its done further north yet
Greetings Keep...99L had almost all the ingredients for an epic hurricane...The system had a rough go of it through its long path ,and would not have survived at all if it wasnt so huge. If Hermine turned into a hurricane over the Bahamas rather than 100 miles or so from the northern gulf coast, a major would have been certain, and a cat-5 not out of the question....Lots of the season left...
Quoting 833. StormJunkie:



You are correct. Thsi one is coming from the "wrong" coast for that. 1-2' surge at best.


Thanks!
Somebody looking at 44W?
Quoting 828. unknowncomic:

92L will be slow to organize much like Hermine because of the large size. If it is able, it seems it will be larger in circulation size than Hermine.

staying disorganized will lead it west.  if it gets powerful in the atl before the bahamas and there is a weakness north it will turn polar.

if it gets in the gulf w/ a bigger wind field and it has the mjo on its side. well that scenario scares me.

katrina hit 11 years, 3 days ago

hermine reminded me a lot of katrina.  hermine just didn't have all of the variables on her side, that's all. she sat in that sweet spot of the GoM right where Katrina took off. if she had maintained what she looked like 2 days ago and grown from there this could have been very very different.
Quoting 803. odinslightning:

 
building codes are more stringent in florida.. georgia 60 miles north, not as much.

Florida may have strong codes now--after Andrew--but for decades they were lax and not enforced. Pinellas County has not had a bad storm in many decades. There was a cat 1 in the late 1960s (sorry--I was 4 cannot remember the name), the March Storm of 1993, but no direct hits. In the 1970s, half of the county commissioners were convicted of bribery for allowing building in unsafe areas. After Andrew in South Florida, it was apparent that many inspectors had been bribed to allow shoddy workmanship. I would not be surprised at all if many structures in Pinellas or other areas of the Gulf Coast were not up to code and so even a cat 1 could cause serious damage to homes and other buildings.
Before Katrina, I always looked forward to and loved hurricanes. I am praying those in the path of Hermine get to enjoy the type of storm I love, not the kind I have learned to fear. Praying all goes well. Stay safe.
Quoting 839. unknowncomic:

Ex 92L starting to fire up convection in the Central Atlantic.

right on time
Quoting 840. hydrus:

Greetings Keep...99L had almost all the ingredients for an epic hurricane...The system had a rough go of it through its long path ,and would not have survived at all if it wasnt so huge. If Hermine turned into a hurricane over the Bahamas rather than 100 miles or so from the northern gulf coast, a major would have been certain, and a cat-5 not out of the question....Lots of the season left...


Track would likely be different too, possibly an Atlantic landfall instead of a gulf landfall in higher polulated areas. Then again we could be hypothetical woth lots of storms, including those that were damaging (worst of Andrew missed Miami, worst of Hugo missed Charleston, etc).
After 2 days of calm, Hermine is knocking on our door. The lights are flickering and we expect to lose power, seeing that we lose power during normal summer storms. Columbia county 12.5 miles south of Lake City. Tornado boxes popping up all over the place. Each new rain band gets stronger and the time in between gets shorter as expected. Here comes another. Stay safe everyone.
Quoting 832. AllStar17:

Atlantic graphics:
(click to enlarge)



When was the last time we had 2 hurricanes at the same time in the Atlantic
Quoting 840. hydrus:

Greetings Keep...99L had almost all the ingredients for an epic hurricane...The system had a rough go of it through its long path ,and would not have survived at all if it wasnt so huge. If Hermine turned into a hurricane over the Bahamas rather than 100 miles or so from the northern gulf coast, a major would have been certain, and a cat-5 not out of the question....Lots of the season left...
we may still see a couple of c4 storms yet season is far from over in fact it may only just be getting started
Cedar Key Link
Thanks violet312s!
Quoting 830. BaltimoreBrian:

Can someone link the Cedar Key cam please?

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/YASbYUZFccF
Quoting 849. MrTornadochase:


When was the last time we had 2 hurricanes at the same time in the Atlantic

Well, according to Mr. Henson and Dr. Masters' post, the last occurrence was in 2012 (Leslie and Michael).
Quoting 851. violet312s:

Cedar Key Link


Waves are getting big now

Quoting 844. Caladesian:


Florida may have strong codes now--after Andrew--but for decades they were lax and not enforced. Pinellas County has not had a bad storm in many decades. There was a cat 1 in the late 1960s (sorry--I was 4 cannot remember the name), the March Storm of 1993, but no direct hits. In the 1970s, half of the county commissioners were convicted of bribery for allowing building in unsafe areas. After Andrew in South Florida, it was apparent that many inspectors had been bribed to allow shoddy workmanship. I would not be surprised at all if many structures in Pinellas or other areas of the Gulf Coast were not up to code and so even a cat 1 could cause serious damage to homes and other buildings.

thing about hermine is the feeder band size and the setup.  damage to structures is going to occur all over the south, clear north as far as atlanta from tampa to jacksonville into the carolinas and on and on.  she won't just dissipate like say Issac did in la in 2012.  she is being fed a healthy stream of moisture and weakness from the carolinas and the trough.  she is going to grind her back side on shore and before she does that she may build the southern quads even more since the inflow outflow will allow strength to be maintained even over land.  property is going to be damaged in 100's of counties in several states in the next few days.
Quoting 849. MrTornadochase:


When was the last time we had 2 hurricanes at the same time in the Atlantic


Do you even read the blog posts? That answer is literally the second sentence.
Night all. Stay safe.
Quoting 844. Caladesian:


Florida may have strong codes now--after Andrew--but for decades they were lax and not enforced. Pinellas County has not had a bad storm in many decades. There was a cat 1 in the late 1960s (sorry--I was 4 cannot remember the name), the March Storm of 1993, but no direct hits. In the 1970s, half of the county commissioners were convicted of bribery for allowing building in unsafe areas. After Andrew in South Florida, it was apparent that many inspectors had been bribed to allow shoddy workmanship. I would not be surprised at all if many structures in Pinellas or other areas of the Gulf Coast were not up to code and so even a cat 1 could cause serious damage to homes and other buildings.


Absolutely agreed. I live in Pinellas and this kind of activity from storms that do not even directly hit the area, still gives the area problems. There is no way this area is ready for a stronger hurricane strike or a direct hit.
So is that Alligator Point house still there? Have not seen anything.
Quoting 772. Astrometeor:



You guys get cancelled classes for tornado watches??? Geez, lol. Universities and primary schools have school during tornado watches, and especially during a clear tornado threat (schools are safer than a lot of homes for the students).


I think they overreacted. I've said it many times here, but in 2014 we had classes all systems a go for an impending ice storm because some mets said it would only be an inland issue. Woke up the next day with no power and probably 1/3" of ice (which with the rarity and top-heavy pine trees, bad combo). Now they get overly cautious, wonder if early dismissal occurs eventually if Hermine speeds up (not that it would affect me, all my classes are in the morning).

Quoting 802. hurrikanehunter14:



No schools cancelled in Pender or New Hanover. I wouldn't expect them to be at this point. Maybe early dismissal


Will have to depend on how quick Hermine gets here probably.
Quoting 836. Tampa969mlb:

just drove down alt 19 from dunedin to clearwater, lots of surge people gotta be supprised


Clearwater beach is under water. Lol - it looks worse there than where Cantore is in the big bend.
I have a feeling that band coming into to Tampa will make it across to Orlando overnight
Quoting 831. GatorWX:




Many of these cells look capable of producing a tornado. Stay safe! If you have access to radar, and if you're reading this message, you do, keep up with it if you're in the likely affected areas. As I said before, tc produced tornadic activity can be very unpredictable and many times unwarned with much time to spare. Stay alert! Tampa, it'll be your way before too long. Likely to see your strongest sustained winds, regardless of a tornado.

Quoting 850. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

we may still see a couple of c4 storms yet season is far from over in fact it may only just be getting started
agreed.  september historically is the climax of the season. in addition the temp of the GoM and atl leads me to believe that there will be support for development well into late october, maybe even into early november.

if the heat of the seas doesn't get dissipated with enough venting expect to see a possible nor'easter or two as a christmas gift to our friends up in the sugar maples.
Cedar Key just set a new Historical Maximum Water Level. Surge probably not going up a lot more from the current 7.6 feet, but there's 3 more hours (and 2.5 feet) more to high tide. Cedar Key is going to have a much rougher ride than it is even now.

And it's WAY to the south. I bet Fish Creek is getting 10-12 feet of surge, with more in the unpopulated areas of the big bend. Cat. 1. Imagine a major with the same track. *shudder*
Good night and stay safe everyone, Florida and beyond.

Quoting 856. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Making landfall?
Jim Cantore was being a classic wish caster on camera and had to suddenly change his tone because was getting too excited.

"The Cedar Key cam is the eye candy of the night! ....because, uh, we want to show you how dangerous storm surge can be"
Seems like the water is still going up at Cedar Key.
Quoting 863. Bucsboltsfan:



Clearwater beach is under water. Lol - it looks worse there than where Cantore is in the big bend.


Pretty much every tropical system that has been in the Eastern Gulf the last 4 years have caused some pretty big issues for the area. I would say the only exception was Andrea. Even messy Colin caused flooding in Pinellas. I just have a feeling that we are not done dealing with the 2016 hurricane season in the Tampa/St Pete area.
Quoting 821. mitthbevnuruodo:




CaribBoy is extremely jealous :(



Hey Guygee, nice to see your face about again :)
Thank you, good the see you too, 'tis the season. I can't help myself watching these storms, especially in Atlantic and GOM. I've been glued to this one since well before the islands, it has been one wild ride, and it is just beginning to get real today. I can't believe it is past midnight...and barring a miracle at work tomorrow I'll be stuck in Orlando working over the holiday weekend, so I bid you and the blog good night!
Looks like the eye may go over Tallahassee.



Quoting 869. Sharkicane:

Jim Cantore was being a classic wish caster on camera and had to suddenly change his tone because was getting too excited.

"The Cedar Key cam is the eye candy of the night! ....because, uh, we want to show you how dangerous storm surge can be"
ya gotta respect cantore though.  he has balls of steel.

that man stood out in katrina for god sakes.

next big one he is gonna be so pumped he will try to out-do his glory of katrina.



braver than i, braver than i.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
From the comments section of the Cedar Key cam,

The address of this place is 310 Dock Street, Cedar Key, Florida
Quoting 849. MrTornadochase:


When was the last time we had 2 hurricanes at the same time in the Atlantic


2012 I believe.
Quoting 804. TheDeathStar:

do you see what i see ?

ex92 is RI
Quoting 823. GatorWX:



haha! :p Kidding. Careful what ya wish for. Far as I know, you all get your share and as soon as you realize, there will be one at your doorstep. Recall hearing of some biggens before the sats.


Quoting 846. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

right on time


It better hurry up now :) I want 55kt and direct hit lol
Watching the cedar key cam has been a treat. Crazy to see what is happening.
Quoting 830. BaltimoreBrian:

Can someone link the Cedar Key cam please?






Probably not. Last view I had was of a wooden dock taking out out the camera.