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Intensifying Tropical Storm Hermine Beginning to Close Off an Eye

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 4:48 PM GMT on September 01, 2016

Tropical Storm Hermine is gathering strength as it steams north-northeastwards at 14 mph towards the Florida Panhandle, and appears poised to give Florida its first hurricane strike in nearly eleven years when it crosses the coast late tonight or early Friday morning. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft was in Hermine early Thursday afternoon, and found top surface winds of 65 mph to the east of the center, and a central pressure that had fallen to 991 mb. The aircraft recorded a distinct double wind maximum on either side of the center, evidence that Hermine was not far from from closing off an eye. This process was also apparent on satellite images, which showed a band of intense thunderstorms rotating around the north side of Hermine’s center, forming the northern portion of an eyewall. At this rate, Hermine should have a fully closed eye by late afternoon, and could be a Category 1 hurricane by Thursday evening. It’s a good thing Hermine didn’t get its act together a day earlier, or we might be looking a a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico today. Wind shear continued to be a moderate 10 - 20 knots on Thursday morning, but the direction of the shear was from the west-southwest, where the upstream air is not quite as dry, as seen on water vapor satellite imagery. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) near the center remained favorable for development, near 30°C (86°F). 


Figure 1. Radar composite of Tropical Storm Hermine taken on Thursday morning, September 1, 2016 by NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft N43RF (flight path shown in red, with the flight path of the simultaneous flight by the NASA Global Hawk aircraft shown in yellow.) Image credit: NOAA/AOML/HRD Twitter feed.


Figure 2. Latest satellite image of Hermine.

Hermine expected to become a Category 1 hurricane
The latest Thursday morning runs of our top models are in solid agreement that Hermine will make landfall along the Florida Big Bend coast on Thursday evening near midnight. In their 11 am EDT Thursday Wind Probability Forecast, NHC’s highest odds for getting tropical storm force winds of 34+ mph from Hermine along the Gulf Coast of Florida were 84%, 83%, and 71%, respectively, for St. Marks, Cedar Key and Apalachicola, Florida. The SHIPS model on Thursday morning predicted moderately favorable conditions for intensification, with wind shear staying a moderate 10 - 20 knots through landfall on Thursday night. SSTs will be a very warm 30°C (86°F), and mid-level relative humidity was predicted to be a reasonably moist 65%. Our three best intensity models--the HWRF, DSHIPS and LGEM models--were in agreement with their latest runs available late Thursday morning on a landfall intensity of 70 - 75 mph--a borderline strong tropical storm or minimal Category 1 hurricane.

The Gulf Coast of Florida can receive large storm surges, due to the extensive stretch of shallow continental shelf waters offshore that extend up to 90 miles from the coast, and NHC has increased their maximum storm surge forecast to 5 - 8’ above ground along a stretch of the Florida coast to the right of where the center is expected to make landfall. Hermine is a large storm, with tropical storm-force winds that extend out up to 140 miles east and southeast of the center, and will likely deliver a storm surge of at least 3 feet to a 150-mile stretch of the Florida Gulf Coast and potentially 1-3 feet along a 150-mile stretch of the Georgia and southern South Carolina coast. Early Thursday afternoon, Hermine continued to create storm surge heights over 1’ along the entire Gulf Coast from New Orleans, Louisiana to Naples, Florida. According to the NOAA Tides and Currents page for Hermine, the maximum storm surge early Thursday afternoon was approximately 2.0’ at Cedar Key and Apalachicola, Florida.

Extremely rich moisture available to Hermine
Near record-warm ocean temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are evaporating near-record amounts of water vapor into the atmosphere for Hermine to feed off of. At 8 am EDT Thursday, the upper-air balloon sounding at Jacksonville, Florida measured 2.41” of total precipitable water (TPW)--the amount of water that would result if one condensed all the water vapor in a column above and precipitated it out. This value ranked in the upper 1% of all TPW measurements taken at the site since 1948. According to the National Weather Service, Jacksonville’s all-time greatest precipitable water sounding was 2.82” on July 20, 1993. Near-record TPW values around 2.5” were analyzed by satellite over the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday morning, and the NAM model predicted a large surge of this rich moisture will accompany Hermine along its track up the Southeast U.S. coast into North Carolina.


Figure 3. Precipitable water (blue = high values, in millimeters) is running as high as 65-75 mm (2.6” - 3.0”) across the eastern Gulf of Mexico in association with Tropical Storm Hermine. This moisture will swing northeast as Hermine makes landfall and moves across the Southeast U.S. Image credit: tropicaltidbits.com.

Heavy rains expected across Southeast, Mid-Atlantic
After landfall, Hermine will become embedded in a cold front as it sweeps through Georgia, and the storm will begin transitioning to a powerful extratropical storm, deriving energy from atmospheric dynamics rather than from the heat energy of the ocean. This extra energy source should allow Hermine to maintain tropical storm intensity as it speeds to the northeast along the Southeast U.S. coast. In their 11 am EDT Thursday Wind Probability Forecast, NHC gave odds of at least 30% for tropical storm-force winds to affect the entire U.S. coast from northern Florida to Virginia. With Hermine now expected to track near or just inland from the Southeast coast, we can expect copious rainfall of 4” - 8”, with locally higher amounts, in a swath extending about 200 miles inland from the coast (see Figure 4) from late Thursday into Friday. Parts of the Southeast have been dealing with a parched, hot summer, so some moisture will be welcome, although these amounts could be excessive in places.

Hermine is expected to become fully extratropical by Saturday night, when it will be offshore from North Carolina. On Sunday and Monday, ex-Hermine is expected to stall out off the Mid-Atlantic coast, as the storm becomes entangled with an upper-level trough of low pressure. Rains of 1” - 4” should sweep along the Delaware, New Jersey, and New York coastlines from Saturday into Sunday and perhaps Monday--a very unwelcome prospect for Labor Day beach goers. A zone of even heavier rain may emerge in parts of the eastern Delmarva and/or southern New Jersey, with the location hinging on how close ex-Hermine gets to the Mid-Atlantic coast as it slows down.

Flash flood watches are in effect from Georgia to North Carolina along a swath northwest of tropical storm warnings. Recent weeks have been relatively dry for much of the Southeast and mid-Atlantic, which will help reduce the risk of major flooding, but an event like Hermine can easily outweigh that factor. As it appears now,  Hermine is not likely to be a billion-dollar hurricane. However, the huge amounts of rain it will unleash on the U.S. coast could set the stage for a follow-up hurricane to be an extremely serious flood disaster, should another hurricane visit the region in September.


Figure 4. NWS precipitation outlook for the 5-day period from 12Z (8:00 am EDT) Thursday, September 1, 2016, through 12Z Tuesday, September 6. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center.

Links
Links
Storm surge from NOAA Tides and Currents page for Hermine
Storm surge expert Dr. Hal Needham's new post, New Coastal Flooding Products Help Us Track Hermine's Storm Surge
NWS Local Statements on Hermine
NWS Excessive Rainfall Forecasts
Radar loops from Brian McNoldy
Loews Don CeSar webcam from St. Pete’s Beach (thanks to WU member LuckySD for this link)
Blue Parrot Cafe webcam in Apalalachicola (thanks go to WU member captainhunter for this link)

Madeline angles south of Hawaii; hurricane watch for Lester
Tropical Storm Madeline, a mighty Category 4 hurricane just two days ago, limped across the Pacific just south of Hawaii’s Big Island on Thursday morning, producing much less impact than feared. Madeline was located 180 miles south of South Point, HI, as of the 11:00 am EST (5:00 am HST) advisory from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC). Madeline’s top winds were holding steady at 50 mph, but the storm is expected be a depression by Friday as it continues moving west over open water, eventually arcing to the west-northwest.

Tropical storm warnings for Madeline were cancelled across Hawaii at 2:00 am HST (8:00 am EDT) Thursday. No major damage or injury had yet been reported, though we’ll have to wait till after daybreak Hawaii time to know for sure. Hilo racked up more than 4” of rain during Hermine’s approach on Tuesday and Wednesday, and rainfall was no doubt heavier along the east slopes of the Big Island. Tropical storm force winds were observed as far away from Madeline as Hawaii’s northwest coast, where a mesonet station at the Kohala Ranch Resort reported sustained winds of 44 mph at 2:38 pm HST Wednesday and a gust to 60 mph at 11:03 am HST.


Figure 5. Infrared image of Tropical Storm Madeline (left) and Hurricane Lester (right) at 1200Z (8:00 am EDT and 2:00 am HST) Thursday, September 1, 2016. Image credit: NASA/MSFC Earth Science Office.

Next in Hawaii’s unusual hurricane lineup is Hurricane Lester, located about 750 miles east of Hilo as of the 11 am EDT advisory from CPHC. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Hawaii’s Big Island, Maui, Molokai, Lanai, and Kahoolawe. Although Lester retains a distinct eye in infrared satellite imagery, its top sustained winds were down to 105 mph, making it a Category 2 storm. Wind shear along Lester’s path remains quite low at 5-10 knots, but dry air at mid-levels of the atmosphere (relative humidities only around 35-40%) is feeding into Lester’s shield of thunderstorms, which has become less intense in satellite imagery. Also, Lester is passing over a corridor of waters churned up by Madeline, which may have pushed SSTs below the 26°C benchmark for tropical development, as suggested in daily SST mapping. The SHIPS model predicts SSTs in the 26-27°C range for the next several days, with little change in wind shear or relative humidity, so Lester may weaken only gradually.

Lester’s potential path is worrisome enough to require vigilance. Computer models agree that Lester will angle west-northwest on a path that parallels the Hawaiian island chain, but they disagree on how close that path will be to the islands. The 00Z and 06Z runs of the HWRF model take Lester about 100 miles north of the islands as a Category 1 hurricane, with the GFDL runs considerably closer and equally strong. The 00Z and 06Z GFS runs are similar to the HWRF but with Lester as a strong tropical storm, and the European model also keeps Lester about as far north. Some members of the 00Z Euro and GFS ensembles are considerably further south: the GFS ensemble average (GEFS) moves Lester across Hawaii northwest of the Big Island, and the Euro average is similar, though a shade further north. These conflicting messages from the models underscore the need for continued caution. The official 11 am EDT track from CPHC moves Lester just north of the islands from Saturday into early Sunday as a minimal Category 1 hurricane, bringing Lester to about 100 miles north of Oahu.


Figure 6. Official track for Hurricane Lester as of 11:00 am EDT (5:00 am HST) Thursday.

Weakening Gaston heads toward the Azores
A Tropical Storm Warning is up for the islands of the western and Central Azores as Hurricane Gaston continues to speed east-northeast at 23 mph towards the islands, where the storm is expected to arrive on Friday morning. On Wednesday morning, Gaston peaked as an impressive Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. Since then, higher wind shear and a traverse over cooler waters near 26.5°C (80°F) has caused weakening, and Gaston was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds at 11 am EDT Thursday. This weakening trend should continue, resulting in Gaston arriving in the western Azores on Friday morning as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. The Azores only averages one hurricane strike per decade, and has already seen one this year: 2016’s first Atlantic storm, Hurricane Alex, which struck the island of Terceira in the central Azores on January 15 as a bizarrely out-of-season tropical storm in January. Alex did minimal damage and caused no direct deaths.


Figure 7. MODIS visible satellite image of Hurricane Gaston on Wednesday afternoon, August 31, 2016. At the time, Gaston was a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

92L in the central tropical Atlantic embedded in dry air
A large tropical wave with plenty of spin but no heavy thunderstorm activity is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles islands. Originally designated Invest 92L, this wave was no longer deemed worthy by NHC as an “Invest”, and they are no longer issuing their suite of model forecasts for the system. The tropical wave was embedded in a major area of dust and dry air from the Sahara Desert, and this dry air will greatly interfere with development over the coming days as 92L heads west at 15 - 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic. The latest 0Z Thursday runs of our three top models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis--the GFS, European and UKMET models--had one of the three, the UKMET, showing development of the system over the next five days. A strong and persistent ridge of high pressure should keep 92L on a fairly straightforward west to west-northwest path, and the storm will likely move through the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday night, and be near Hispaniola on Tuesday. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC reduced their 2-day and 5-day development odds to 0% and 20%, respectively.

We’ll be back with a new post later today.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson





Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Why is TWC showing the guy in the red jacket in Cedar Key? They've been showing him no stop. There's a hurricane starting its landfall across the eastern Panhandle with no one covering it?
Trying hard to wrap deep convection around the core. Time is running out.

Post Health/Science ‏@PostHealthSci 27m
Florida's potential losses from a big hurricane is a mind-blowing $200 billion
Quoting 474. Icybubba:

It is going to be weird not being able to say Florida has not been hit for 11 years anymore.

The last time FL got hit was the year we moved to TX. Now we have moved back. Just saying.
Light winds here in Northern Lake County, tornado watch a couple of severe tstorm warnings. So far so good. We went through the eye of Francis in 05, I don 't think we will do that again no matter what category it is.
Quoting 501. Sfloridacat5:

Why is TWC showing the guy in the red jacket in Cedar Key? They've been showing him no stop. There's a hurricane starting its landfall across the eastern Panhandle with no one covering it?


I have been watching TWC all day and they numerous people covering it. Right now they have Gov Scott on addressing the situation, but they have had reports from Cedar Key and Tallahassee all day.
Can someone explain to me the wind profile data. Looking at recon data they are showing winds of 50-60 mph along Pinellas county (I know those are flight level). Yet, the buoys are showing winds of only 15-20mph. Can someone explain the difference and what are the actual winds? Thx.

Quoting 501. Sfloridacat5:

Why is TWC showing the guy in the red jacket in Cedar Key? They've been showing him no stop. There's a hurricane starting its landfall across the eastern Panhandle with no one covering it?


Maybe that's StormTrackerScott going down with the ship?
Quoting 460. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


New Convection sprouting near the center.

Yes it is, but you should still be thankful for the dry air for inhibiting an even stronger storm. I know a lot of people on this blog want to see a major hurricane instead. But I'll tell you this, people's lives and property are at risk. It is no fun being homeless and losing everything because of a storm.
Hi all,
I'm in Crawfordville in Wakulla County and have long lurked and read the comments here for entertainment and education. I appreciate all of the weather geeks more knowledgeable than I. I'm especially grateful for all of the good information over the past week or so from Dr. Masters and all of you that have kept me ahead of the curve in knowing what's going on.
We're as prepped as we can be and are hunkered down for what is looking like a long night. Rain has been constant with varying intensity but not too heavy for a couple of hours already and I know here is much more to come. My station (KFLCRAWF12)has 0.80" so far today and steady winds of 10-15mph lately. We're far enough inland and high enough that surge is not a concern, so my primary concern for my immediate property is wind damage and extended power outage. Hoping for the best (and maybe a highly unlikely but welcome jog to the east :-) )
My last hurricane experience was Andrew in Miami, so seeing an eyewall on my local radar make me a little jittery even though this has no comparison to that. I can appreciate a how pretty this storm is starting to look after being so ragged for so long, I just wish it wasn't in my back yard - or anyone else's for that matter.
Stay safe everyone!
Quoting 502. StormJunkie:

Trying hard to wrap deep convection around the core. Time is running out.



Good!
Quoting 506. Bucsboltsfan:

Can someone explain to me the wind profile data. Looking at recon data they are showing winds of 50-60 mph along Pinellas county (I know those are flight level). Yet, the buoys are showing winds of only 15-20mph. Can someone explain the difference and what is the actual winds? Thx.




Those winds you see are at flight level.

They are reduced once they get to the surface.
This brings back memories of sitting in my then recently purchased home in Southwest Florida in 2004, watching Hurricane Charley chugging up through the gulf, destined for the Tampa area as a weak Cat. 2 storm. And then, to our surprise, watching it make a sharp right, rapidly intensify to a strong cat 4 storm and nearly come barreling right into our front yard while we sat, relatively unprepared, nary a shutter over a window as I watched a blue porta-potti cartwheel by my picture window and waited for the triple-sliding glass door to come blasting in under the force of the storm.

As we watched the weather channel coverage in shock, the last thing I saw before the satellite went out was Charley making a wiggle to the East just South of Sanibel Island and looking like a monster on radar and coming directly at our home on Estero Bay near Coconut Point. When I turned on the radio the first thing I heard was a warning for residents in the Coconut Point area to take all measure to protect life and limb. The storm had turned and strengthened and we were in trouble. The girls were about to cry and I was helpless to do much. We wanted to jump in the truck and make a run for the inland storm shelter but that seemed too dangerous so we hunkered down, the taste of our hurricane-party beers soured by the lumps in our throats. Fortunately we all survived with almost no damage to the house, Charley wobbled back West a bit and came ashore about 20 miles north but it was a scary ride that day!

Charley proved that track and intensity forecasts can be way off, even up to the last few hours. Fortunately it looks like Hermine isn't in good enough condition to pull a Charley.
Quoting 506. Bucsboltsfan:

Can someone explain to me the wind profile data. Looking at recon data they are showing winds of 50-60 mph along Pinellas county (I know those are flight level). Yet, the buoys are showing winds of only 15-20mph. Can someone explain the difference and what is the actual winds? Thx.



They were flying at 3,000 meters +

Quoting 506. Bucsboltsfan:

Can someone explain to me the wind profile data. Looking at recon data they are showing winds of 50-60 mph along Pinellas county (I know those are flight level). Yet, the buoys are showing winds of only 15-20mph. Can someone explain the difference and what is the actual winds? Thx.




They were up around 10,000 feet. Normal flight level when investigating low level winds is 1500 feet.


Burst of moisture near the center
Quoting 506. Bucsboltsfan:

Can someone explain to me the wind profile data. Looking at recon data they are showing winds of 50-60 mph along Pinellas county (I know those are flight level). Yet, the buoys are showing winds of only 15-20mph. Can someone explain the difference and what is the actual winds? Thx.




Well one thing is the buoys are at the surface and the plane is up at 10,000 feet. Gonna be a big difference in those winds. Another thing helping is that the large scale flow is from SW to NE so that aids the winds at the upper levels. The only time the coast will feel those winds is if they are drawn down by down draft in the storm. Which is why gusts to that strength might happen.
Eye beginning to clear...



518. IDTH
Quoting 517. FIUStormChaser:

Eye beginning to clear...





Wouldn't be surprised to see the southern side start to get more convection.
Quoting 507. StormJunkie:



Maybe that's StormTrackerScott going down with the ship?


I do recall him being quite adamant that Cedar Key would be the strike-zone.
Quoting 506. Bucsboltsfan:

Can someone explain to me the wind profile data. Looking at recon data they are showing winds of 50-60 mph along Pinellas county (I know those are flight level). Yet, the buoys are showing winds of only 15-20mph. Can someone explain the difference and what are the actual winds? Thx.




They're currently flying at around 15,000 feet. They haven't descended to lower levels to sample the wind field yet.
Ive unfortuntaly got to bale out of this now but I hope and wish that there are no casualties from all this activity.
As I have been saying for ages now, the problem with Hermine will be the rain and the run off from it! (In my opinion of course.)

All for now, hopes and thoughts for all affected, from us over here watching you's over there.
PlazaRed 10.30 pm Western European Time.
Had this happened 6 hours ago, it could have pushed Cat 2 maybe. The sooner it gets on land the better. Although it is getting so close now that land interaction will be hampering it some before long. As long as it doesn't decide to be a Humberto.

Quoting 491. win1gamegiantsplease:



Damn, they cancelled the whole year over this?


LOL!
Quoting 507. StormJunkie:



Maybe that's StormTrackerScott going down with the ship?


Ha!
Quoting 519. stormy2008:



I do recall him being quite adamant that Cedar Key would be the strike-zone.


Next to StormTop, he is one of the most "adamant" bloggers we have ever had.
Cedar Key is starting to flood along the coast.
Quoting 478. LuckySD:

What time are we looking at for Hermine's expected landfall? I saw some people estimating around 10-11 pm EST earlier.

I'm hearing landfall around 8:00 pm EDT. Wind gusts expected to reach 90 mph in Tallahassee and surrounding area's. This is a wet storm that will be pushing large amounts of precipitation in it's bands, enhancing the possibility of tree and tree branch failure due to the added weight of water combined with wind force. If you still have time, throw up some window shields to protect glass from flying debris. Don't use duct tape, it's useless. We are currently getting some heavy rain on the southeast coast, clouds are rapidly moving to the north toward Hermine. Good luck!
Hermine vs Landfall...

Quoting 474. Icybubba:

It is going to be weird not being able to say Florida has not been hit for 11 years anymore.


I think Hermine is just the appetizer, we got 3 more months for the main course. The pattern has been pretty consistent with HP across the Atlantic pushing things towards the US. This could be another year where FL gets hit more then once.
North!
Thx for info guys. I knew it was flight level but I didn't realize at 15,000 feet. That explains the delta and that we can look at those readings and not take them as actual winds.
Still flying at 3,000 meters but heading towards the eye


Damn i go to take a nap and wake up to this. She is putting on an impressive show at the moment. We got lucky she is as large as she is and didn't do this earlier as was expected. Goes to show we still don't have a good handle on intensity with the new normal of warm waters and abundant moisture. Models overall did very well with this storm in the last 72 hours.
Quoting 519. stormy2008:



I do recall him being quite adamant that Cedar Key would be the strike-zone.


And downtown Tampa was going under water too.
Keep up the good work stormjunkie. Nostormsinflorida sorry it is ending. Time for a new name.
Report of 2 Shingles off the roof of a house in Alligator Point Florida
203900 2837N 08510W 6953 03045 9835 154 086 030000 002 020 000 03

983.5mbs
Quoting 530. PensacolaDoug:

North!

Yes, north.
Storm center just split and low shifted west.
Quoting 537. MeteorologistTV:

Report of 2 Shingles off the roof of a house in Alligator Point Florida


We shall rebuild.
Time: 20:39:00Z
Coordinates: 28.617N 85.167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 695.3 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,045 m (9,990 ft)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 983.5 mb (29.05 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 30° at 0 kts (From the NNE at 0.0 mph)
Air Temp: 15.4°C (59.7°F)
Dew Pt: 8.6°C (47.5°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 2 kts (2.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 20 kts* (23.0 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr
Quoting 534. luvtogolf:



And downtown Tampa was going under water too.

Notice his "rare" silence...
Quoting 526. MeteorologistTV:

Cedar Key is starting to flood along the coast.


Cedar Key has been flooded for hours....

And everyone be quiet with the "if this storm had ______ amount of time left over water"
We know that more time over water means more time to strengthen. If it looks like it's about to do something before landfall, of course it is...it's over water.
Quoting 500. win1gamegiantsplease:



Keeps looking better
Wonder if the shape of the land right there helps the storm strengthen - the way Bay of Campeche can help a storm.

A week or so ago, wasn"t it you who mentioned the name Hermine, in all the years on the naming list, had not made hurricane? Today Hermine broke her streak.
983.5 MB...

983.5 mb
(~ 29.05 inHg)
548. A4Guy
Lots of dry air being pulled in...should be slowing intesification.
NW side of Hermine... just had our first squall come through.. I forgot to put the bbq cover on so I shed my shirt and ran outside and was unpleasantly surprised at the COLD shower I received. I could have put on a slicker though they are packed away with the winter long-sleeved t-shirts. Looks to be a wet and windy night out here. Stay safe everyone!
983mb!!! Holy ish this girl is bombing out! 5mb drop since last center fix what 90min ago?
Quoting 497. StormJunkie:



UNTIL June 6th??? Sweet, that is at least one win the Gamecocks will have since they can't play football if school is closed.


Wishcasters
HH just went through center at 85.2W, NHC says 85.0W huh.
NHC 4 pm discussion is up.

Calls for Hermine to tap out at 80 mph.
My guess of where I thought Hermine would land and at what strength is starting to look really good now.
For those of you far more educated in meterology than I am, how is this rapid pressure drop being influenced by the trof? I assume that without that interaction Hermine would not be intensifying at this rate.
Strong thunderstorm moving into Titusville
Quoting 546. FIUStormChaser:

983.5 MB...


That NW corner keeps blowing up with convection. Gonna be interesting if that happens on top of us!
Quoting 539. franckinator:


Yes, north.
Storm center just split and low shifted west.


No


Just no
TWC just showed a map of possible power outages. Savannah was smack-dab in the middle of the "EXPECTED" zone... Ugh
Waves really starting to kick up and get choppy on St. George Island. Looks like they are just starting to come down from high tide and next high tide won't be until 4:19 am EST tomorrow. Source
Quoting 547. CybrTeddy:

983.5 mb
(~ 29.05 inHg)


Flying at a higher altitude though so the measurements are less reliable? Guessing the center fix will be 985-986 mb.
Quoting 541. VAbeachhurricanes:

Time: 20:39:00Z
Coordinates: 28.617N 85.167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 695.3 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,045 m (9,990 ft)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 983.5 mb (29.05 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 30° at 0 kts (From the NNE at 0.0 mph)
Air Temp: 15.4°C (59.7°F)
Dew Pt: 8.6°C (47.5°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 2 kts (2.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 20 kts* (23.0 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr

Serious drop! Levi was right, he said the trough could vent the system and cause the pressure to drop. Hats off to Levi.
Quoting 556. MiamiHurricanes09:

For those of you far more educated in meterology than I am, how is this rapid pressure drop being influenced by the trof? I assume that without that interaction Hermine would not be intensifying at this rate.


Gotta wait and see if its an actual pressure drop the plane is still at 10k feet, but its possible.
The Eye may track over Tallahassee

Absolutely beautiful upper level outflow fanning out over the eastern Florida coastline.



From the 4:00 CDT Discussion:

NWS policy allows NHC to write advisories on and issue tropical storm
watches and warnings for post-tropical cyclones, when the system
continues to pose a significant threat to life and property.
NHC and the NWS Eastern Region have decided that this option will be
invoked for Hermine. After Hermine becomes a post-tropical cyclone,
NHC will continue to issue its full suite of advisory and warning
products for as long as the system remains a significant threat to
land.


Smart. This needs to be policy, not an option.
NHC not showing Hurricane Hermine making landfall for another 12 hours.

INIT 01/2100Z 28.5N 85.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 30.2N 83.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 32.4N 81.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 03/0600Z 34.5N 78.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 03/1800Z 36.3N 75.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 04/1800Z 38.0N 72.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 05/1800Z 38.5N 71.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 06/1800Z 39.5N 70.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Buoy Station 42036
NDBC
Location: 28.500N 84.517W
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2016 20:00:00 UTC
Winds: SSE (150°) at 42.7 kt gusting to 52.4 kt
Significant Wave Height: 20.0 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 11 sec
Average Wave Period: 7.8 sec
Mean Wave Direction: SSW (203°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.39 in and falling rapidly
Air Temperature: 80.4 F
Dew Point: 78.6 F
Water Temperature: 84.4 F
Good afternoon, everyone. I don't know about moisture levels near Hermine, but it's super humid here in Nassau today...... and after a hot sunny morning, we're back to overcast skies....
Quoting 562. Envoirment:



Flying at a higher altitude though so the measurements are less reliable? Guessing the center fix will be 985-986 mb.


Piggy has been flying at 10,000 ft the whole mission though
Found some working, live webcams from st pete beach if anyone wants to watch that band roll through the Tampa area. I'll be looking for more in the areas where the weather will be strongest and post up the links.

Link
Quoting 568. CybrTeddy:

NHC not showing Hurricane Hermine making landfall for another 12 hours.

INIT 01/2100Z 28.5N 85.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 30.2N 83.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 32.4N 81.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 03/0600Z 34.5N 78.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 03/1800Z 36.3N 75.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 04/1800Z 38.0N 72.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 05/1800Z 38.5N 71.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 06/1800Z 39.5N 70.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP



if thats the case then we could see a march stronger storm the NHC is being way too low
Quoting 556. MiamiHurricanes09:

For those of you far more educated in meterology than I am, how is this rapid pressure drop being influenced by the trof? I assume that without that interaction Hermine would not be intensifying at this rate.


The storm is moving in the same direction as the wind flow that the trough is inducing. This results in it helping the storm's outflow by increasing divergence aloft, ie. air can move more quickly away from the storm as it warms up. The trough is also making a quickly moving jet stream at the upper levels just to its north that the poleward outflow channel on the same side can connect to. It is like a train picking up a bunch of its passengers of warm air and shuttling them out. It makes the heat engine of the hurricane much more efficient, thus allowing it strengthen.
Quoting 568. CybrTeddy:

NHC not showing Hurricane Hermine making landfall for another 12 hours.

INIT 01/2100Z 28.5N 85.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 30.2N 83.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 32.4N 81.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 03/0600Z 34.5N 78.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 03/1800Z 36.3N 75.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 04/1800Z 38.0N 72.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 05/1800Z 38.5N 71.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 06/1800Z 39.5N 70.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP


they do not have this landfalling in Apalachicola is why, they have it coming in East of there and the coastline curves back to the north at that part of the coasst.
HOLY CRAP THE LIGHTNING!!!
If 983mb is correct then 85mph is likely
Quoting 571. Hurricanes101:



Piggy has been flying at 10,000 ft the whole mission though


But the previous mission they were flying at less than 5,000 feet, so those pressure readings were more realiable. You can't compare an extrapolated pressure of 988 mb at 5,000 feet to one of 983/4 at 10,000 and say it has dropped 4-5 mb since the last pass for certain, as it becomes less realiable the higher you extrapolate from.
Here in south Tampa a little windy with light showers. Had a big downpour earlier around 1 pm
Quoting 565. FIUStormChaser:

The Eye may track over Tallahassee




Yes, good chance
Quoting 578. Envoirment:



But the previous mission they were flying at less than 5,000 feet, so those pressure readings were more realiable. You can't compare an extrapolated pressure of 988 mb at 5,000 feet to one of 983/4 at 10,000 and say it has dropped 4-5 mb since the last pass for certain, as it becomes less realiable the higher you extrapolate from.


Then why are the flying at 10,000 ft?
Quoting 556. MiamiHurricanes09:

For those of you far more educated in meterology than I am, how is this rapid pressure drop being influenced by the trof? I assume that without that interaction Hermine would not be intensifying at this rate.


Baroclinic and BaroTropic

Baroclinic is influenced by the temperature changes in latitude in the indirect ferrel cell. A trough is one of the systems that balances out the warm air from the equator region and the cold air from the pole. This redistribution of heat is what keeps the poles from freezing over, and the equator from being too hot.

Barotropic is influenced by a lack of the mentioned fronts, and is dictated by tropical weather, your standard tropical lows that propagate east to west across the atlantic.

In this case, our Hurricane is still fully tropical with the beginning of an interaction with the Trough set to begin over South Georgia. As the Hurricane begins to climb with latitude and merge with the front, the temperature contrast feeds into it and deepens the low pressure center and the storm begins to take on extra tropical features. In a barotropic system you would expect the strongest winds around the center, and in a baroclinic system it would be displaced to where the front is away from the low level center.
I fear Apalachee Bay is about to become of victim of geography and geometry. Hermine is starting to pile water in and St Joe's Point is going to keep it from coming out.

#Dogpaddle Island
Quoting 581. Hurricanes101:



Then why are the flying at 10,000 ft?


Perhaps because it's safer? Not sure, but they should still get a lot of good data. Don't be surprised if they get a lot of much higher flight level wind readings as they're flying at twice the height this time round.
Quoting 580. Sfloridacat5:



Yes, good chance


Good thing FSU is playing in Orlando Sat. We are relatively dry here so far with just some wind and one feeder thunderstorm. Not sure what to say about UF though. Hopefully the field holds up for Saturday's game and there aren't many remnants left to wreck too much havoc with the game.
Nice looking storm with connection starting the build on the weaker Southwest side. I was wondering if and when we would see a tropical storm let alone a hurricane from this system but she is definitely thriving right now.

All the best to those in Hermine's path!!

Quoting 436. FIUStormChaser:


Look at this...weird..issued by AKQ in VA...

..TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM WIND CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THIS AREA AND WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- GLOUCESTER
- GLOUCESTER POINT

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: NOT AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. TO BE
UPDATED SHORTLY.

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: NOT AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. TO BE
UPDATED SHORTLY.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: NOT AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. TO BE UPDATED
SHORTLY.

* STORM SURGE
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: NOT AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. TO BE
UPDATED SHORTLY.

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: NOT AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. TO BE
UPDATED SHORTLY.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: NOT AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. TO BE UPDATED
SHORTLY.

* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: NOT AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. TO BE
UPDATED SHORTLY.

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: NOT AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. TO BE
UPDATED SHORTLY.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: NOT AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. TO BE UPDATED
SHORTLY.

* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: NOT AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. TO BE
UPDATED SHORTLY.

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: NOT AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. TO BE
UPDATED SHORTLY.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: NOT AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. TO BE UPDATED
SHORTLY.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- HTTP://READY.GOV/HURRICANES
- WWW.READYVIRGINIA.GOV
- WEATHER.GOV/AKQ

$$


Pretty bland forecast...
In a matter of minutes this storm cell brought in as much rain as the entire season of summer
Quoting 560. SavannahStorm:

TWC just showed a map of possible power outages. Savannah was smack-dab in the middle of the "EXPECTED" zone... Ugh


Did you hear that they now expect it to still be a hurricane until it reaches the savannah river?
We are getting some good rain from Hermine in New Smyrna Beach.
Nothing too dramatic other than a downpour about 3:45 and a couple wicked lightening bolts right over my head.
Unfortunately Wundermaps are down for local info.
Quoting 556. MiamiHurricanes09:

For those of you far more educated in meterology than I am, how is this rapid pressure drop being influenced by the trof? I assume that without that interaction Hermine would not be intensifying at this rate.


Eh directly it's not really. It's pulling the entire system northward, but the big thing the trough is doing is ventilating this system. There's a strong jetstreak over the southern appalacians which is helping to keep a strong outflow channel open for this system. It's easy to continue to have a strong low pressure when the upper levels are diverging northward. All the air is being drawn north away from the system, naturally air rushes into the center and rises to replace it. Which is favorable for this system. Hence the strengthening and tightening of the core.
Live cam from st george island Apalachicola FL, currently heavy rain and surf coming in.

Link
Definitely a northerly wobble in the last couple frames. This could bring the center in a little further to the west closer to Apalachicola and an earlier landfall.
anybody receiving tropical storm force conditions?
I really wish I had TWC... I hate Verizon for dropping them, I miss the reporters reporting in the hurricane.
It's starting to get dark and really breezy in Fort Walton Beach.
975mb seems about the upper limit before landfall. Huge windfield will push a solid CAT 2 storm surge I would guess.

Savannah should be concerned. They are going to get a full blown hurricane, with limited weakening due to barocline enhancement, and I'm not sure they are ready to get backdoored. Will be probably the most serious weather event to affect them in a decade.
Quoting 590. tiggeriffic:



Did you hear that they now expect it to still be a hurricane until it reaches the savannah river?


WUT
Started raining here north of Orlando, very tropical and humid outside
Thanks to everyone that responded to my earlier comment. :)

On another note, I hope Recon sweeps in through the SE quad where the strongest winds are located.
Navarre beach cam

Link
Storm Surge picking up near the coast on this live feed. Cedar Key, FL
Link
Nasty squall line is about to come into the Tampa Bay area. Could see some tropical storms winds and torrential rains.
Quoting 600. SavannahStorm:



WUT


YUP....our local just said it
We are just now getting the first rains from Hermine here in east Destin, FL.
Recon finding 983mb pressures dropped 5 in a short span. Could be sub 980 at landfall not good because a higher surge is likely
Quoting 581. Hurricanes101:



Then why are the flying at 10,000 ft?


From Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting

3.2 Position analysis

Aerial reconnaissance data

A typical mission consists of the plane flying at 10,000 ft (700 hPa) for hurricanes and 5,000 ft (850 hPa) for tropical storms. For pre-TC disturbances (i.e., "invest" missions), the typical flight altitude is 1,500 ft (457 m).
Quoting 568. CybrTeddy:

NHC not showing Hurricane Hermine making landfall for another 12 hours.

INIT 01/2100Z 28.5N 85.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 30.2N 83.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 32.4N 81.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 03/0600Z 34.5N 78.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 03/1800Z 36.3N 75.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 04/1800Z 38.0N 72.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 05/1800Z 38.5N 71.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 06/1800Z 39.5N 70.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP


Not quite, 06z is 1 am eastern time.
Quoting 394. weatherbro:

Here comes Hermine!!!

Hermione, not Hermine
NEARING LANDFALL
09L/H/H/C1
Quoting 603. swflpaul:



No worries my friend..FSU plays Monday night so it should be okay


Hence why i said good thing they are playing in Orlando. The Gators play Sat night.
NWS Tampa Bay ‏@NWSTampaBay 2 min ago
⚠️ Take Cover! Tornado Warning including Hernando County Airport FL and Garden Grove FL until 6:00 PM EDT
I'm only not reporting much cause I want to experience this in person even though it's just beginning, and though I'm excited to experience the end of the hurricane drought in Florida while also likely getting my first hurricane eyewall experience, I'd be lying if there wasn't a bit of nervousness/fear since I've never gone through the inner core of a hurricane.

With that said it's been a heck of a day, along the way back home to my apartment, I got word that the TWC was stationed live at a part I frequently go running at by my apartment! So I headed over with other FSU meteorology majors and got to meet Maria LaRosa from TWC!

BTW I'm the short guy just to the left of Maria, my identity is revealed! lol




Also, last night I drove Kori down to Apalachicola so he could chase this event. He's a nice guy and we had plenty of good meteorology talks along the way!

Quoting 614. Vlad959810:

Hermione, not Hermine


No, it's Hermine
Wow, low tide at 9:07 PM. High tide around 2:30 AM (EST). Timing looks not good.

Quoting 605. bigwes6844:

Storm Surge picking up near the coast on this live feed.
Link
Quoting 577. MeteorologistTV:

If 983mb is correct then 85mph is likely


If 983mb is correct Hermine will have a 97x mb handle at landfall.

Respect hurricane watches and warnings. The storms can be much stronger than anticipated.
Quoting 614. Vlad959810:

Hermione, not Hermine


Nope - Hermine
Quoting 605. bigwes6844:

Storm Surge picking up near the coast on this live feed. Cedar Key, FL
Link


hahaha there's a ton of birds flying around in that feed, so much for the birds leaving being a sign of an approaching hurricane.
Quoting 621. ProPoly:



If 983mb is correct Hermine will have a 97x mb handle at landfall.

Respect hurricane watches and warnings. The storms can be much stronger than anticipated.


Especially a storm that is intensifying at landfall.
Did she just stall?! No Bueno!!!
Quoting 618. Jedkins01:

I'm only not reporting much cause I want to experience this in person even though it's just beginning, and though I'm excited to experience the end of the hurricane drought in Florida while also likely getting my first hurricane eyewall experience, I'd be lying if there wasn't a bit of nervousness/fear since I've never gone through the inner core of a hurricane.

With that said it's been a heck of a day, along the way back home to my apartment, I got word that the TWC was stationed live at a part I frequently go running at by my apartment! So I headed over with other FSU meteorology majors and got to meet Maria LaRosa from TWC!

BTW I'm the short guy just to the left of Maria, my identity is revealed! lol




Also, last night I drove Kori down to Apalachicola so he could chase this event. He's a nice guy and we had plenty of good meteorology talks along the way!




Oh jeez, another one is revealed! Jealous of you.
11 years....
Quoting 623. pipelines:



hahaha there's a ton of birds flying around in that feed, so much for the birds leaving being a sign of an approaching hurricane.


haven't seen a single bird or squirrel in my neighborhood all day....and my dog chases both non stop...dog bored as all get out....just saying
Still in awe of the idiots that want to go INTO this storm. Stay away. There is already enough stress on the Emergency Operations here and you are only adding to it.
URNT12 KWBC 012116
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092016
A. 01/20:39:00Z
B. 28 deg 36 min N
085 deg 10 min W
C. 700 mb 2988 m
D. 51 kt
E. 015 deg 33 nm
F. 127 deg 59 kt
G. 017 deg 31 nm
H. 986 mb
I. 10 C / 3056 m
J. 15 C / 3064 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. RAGGED
M. C40
N. 12345 / 7
O. .01 / 1 nm
P. NOAA3 WXWXA HERMINE OB 06
MAX OUTBOUND SFC WIND 65 KT 179 / 32 NM 20:47:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND AND MAX FL WIND 69 KT 179 / 40 NM 20:48:39Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 155 / 05 KTS
It's hard to tell but I suspect a "stadium effect" in the eye may developing.

Quoting 622. PintailKiller:



Nope - Hermine


the picture that was related to this.....WAS HERMIONE......from Harry Potter.....oh, never mind....I got it anyway
Category 2 Strength not out of the question....

Starting to get a bit windy here!
Quoting 627. VAbeachhurricanes:



Oh jeez, another one is revealed! Jealous of you.
Kori also posted that he met Jim Cantore and a picture with both of them.
Quoting 635. FIUStormChaser:

Category 2 Strength not out of the question....


high end 1 maybe just shy of 2
Quoting 628. floridastorm:

Hello everyone!

My friend and I are wanting to witness some of Hermine's fury. Coming from Pasco/Tampa, how far north do we need to go to see some active weather? Thank you!



Look at the radar am for the front right side of the rotating circle. Stand outside under a nice tall tree .

Really Darwin at work here. People who have no clue what they are doing wanting to drive into the eye of a hurricane tend to turn up as one of the statistics
640. FOREX
At this point the Hurricane is making a Beeline for the Beak of the Apalachicola area, it is not going any more East than that. Very obvious on satellite.
Quoting 632. washingaway:

It's hard to tell but I suspect a "stadium effect" in the eye may developing.




no, it's not. eye wall is ragged with gaps in it, the stadium effect only occurs in stronger, well developed hurricanes.

Unless your version of a stadium is a little baseball field with a couple grand stands around it :)
Quoting 640. FOREX:

At this point the Hurricane is making a Beeline for the Beak of the Apalachicola area, it is not going any more East than that. Very obvious on satellite.
Its going to turn east into the mouth
https://youtu.be/VRMElSLXc1c

Corky song but love it!
I have heard some Emergency Preparedness People say....If you purposely go into a bad situation (going to danger instead of away from it)...don't call us to get you out....
Quoting 599. Heresince2005:

975mb seems about the upper limit before landfall. Huge windfield will push a solid CAT 2 storm surge I would guess.

Savannah should be concerned. They are going to get a full blown hurricane, with limited weakening due to barocline enhancement, and I'm not sure they are ready to get backdoored. Will be probably the most serious weather event to affect them in a decade.


Savannah is not going to get a "full-blown hurricane."
An intensifying cane coming at me in the middle of the night? No thanks; I'll pass. Stay safe :)
Whats recon doing?Its not working for me..Anything above 75mph?.
648. FOREX
Surprised Bay County is not under a Hurricane warning given the proximity of the eye wall.
Quoting 615. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

NEARING LANDFALL
09L/H/H/C1


Can you even begin to imagine what the situtaion would be like now if this had happened 24 hours ago ?
Que Sera Srea but with things like this about people cant just go to sleep.
Thanks for posting KOTG.
Government offices closed in Charleston, thankfully! Did not want to be stuck across the bridge and not be able to get home. Sounds like we will certainly get something here in Charleston. I don't normally watch local weather but have been today, they are doing a great job. Our friends in Venice Fl are without power now. Hope everyone is prepared....
Quoting 645. LesBonsTemps:



Savannah is not going to get a "full-blown hurricane."


our local mets said that it will still be a hurricane as it approaches the savannah river.....
Quoting 644. tiggeriffic:

I have heard some Emergency Preparedness People say....If you purposely go into a bad situation (going to danger instead of away from it)...don't call us to get you out....

I say let natural selection take over at that point...first responders have family, too!
Looks like maybe 3-4 more hours before landfall. The good news is it won't have time to really get much stronger, also low tide is at 11:34 pm tonight in the big bend area, this should help reduce some of the surge damage
Quoting 635. FIUStormChaser:

Category 2 Strength not out of the question....




Im not a met, but those deep red colors all the way around the eye look....scary. Stay safe Florida and all of us in the path. Never ever underestimate what these storms are capable of.
Eye has shrunken drastically on Satellite Imagery.

Quoting 651. tiggeriffic:



our local mets said that it will still be a hurricane as it approaches the savannah river.....

You could be right I suppose - they certainly don't weaken as quickly over Florida (which is going to include passing over the Okeefenokee Swamp) as they do most places - I would expect just under hurricane strength at Savannah.
657. OKsky
Quoting 644. tiggeriffic:

I have heard some Emergency Preparedness People say....If you purposely go into a bad situation (going to danger instead of away from it)...don't call us to get you out....


This song goes out to those people.
Quoting 616. Michfan:



Hence why i said good thing they are playing in Orlando. The Gators play Sat night.


UF field drains very well, and Hermine should be long gone and in South Carolina by the 7:30 pm kickoff.
Quoting 654. K8eCane:



Im not a met, but those deep red colors all the way around the eye look....scary. Stay safe Florida and all of us in the path. Never ever underestimate what these storms are capable of.


Exactly... Literally the ring of red and then now having that small eye like feature in the middle.... Pressure continues to drop as well.
Quoting 638. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

high end 1 maybe just shy of 2

I say it'll probably be a Cat 1 with 80 or 85 mph winds and a minimum pressure of 980 or so mbars at landfall.
Quoting 656. LesBonsTemps:


You could be right I suppose - they certainly don't weaken as quickly over Florida (which is going to include passing over the Okeefenokee Swamp) as they do most places - I would expect just under hurricane strength at Savannah.


easily cat one....take into consideration the savannah river is what separates GA and SC..... just my take on it tho
Quoting 612. nrtiwlnvragn:



From Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting

3.2 Position analysis

Aerial reconnaissance data

A typical mission consists of the plane flying at 10,000 ft (700 hPa) for hurricanes and 5,000 ft (850 hPa) for tropical storms. For pre-TC disturbances (i.e., "invest" missions), the typical flight altitude is 1,500 ft (457 m).

That is so they don't fly into a cat 4/5 at low level and almost get killed (see Dr. Masters' Hurricane Hugo story)
Quoting 647. MeteorologistTV:

Whats recon doing?Its not working for me..Anything above 75mph?.


they're pretty far to the east of the center right now, I'm not sure why they aren't making eyewall penetrations but they aren't. They went through maybe an hour ago and found one reading around 75mph. It appears the area to the east has really died down in wind speed, no more large areas of 60+ mph surface winds.
664. Ed22
Quoting 641. pipelines:



no, it's not. eye wall is ragged with gaps in it, the stadium effect only occurs in stronger, well developed hurricanes.

Unless your version of a stadium is a little baseball field with a couple grand stands around it :)
Even though the eye of Hermine seems ragged at the moment, its rapidly strengthening pressure now at 983mbs and falling further could take it 970mbs. Winds be anywhere around 90 to 100 mph at landfall if this trend continues.
Looking at this cam on the beak. Water coming up now.

St. George Island Live Cam

I am thinking it will cross through GA into SC around Aiken, unless the front starts influencing it to the east more... Of course one comes through the lowland now that i don't live there.
Checking the Cedar Key webcam, although the intensity of the breaking against the seawall may have increased the overall flooding appears to be slightly less than a couple hours ago, I suppose due to a receding tide?
Quoting 640. FOREX:

At this point the Hurricane is making a Beeline for the Beak of the Apalachicola area, it is not going any more East than that. Very obvious on satellite.
'

Radar shows it is wobbling a bit north and a bit east. I see landfall occuring East of Apalachicola, which is why the NHC does not have landfall for about 10-11 hours
just had 1 minute of VERY hard rain with no wind here in St. Augustine.
Quoting 660. NCHurricaneTracker69:


I say it'll probably be a Cat 1 with 80 or 85 mph winds and a minimum pressure of 980 or so mbars at landfall.


Agree.
The curvature of the big bend could be aiding Hermine to tighten up more
Damn good thing this is going inland fast..It is organizing fast..

Link

Things really going downhill near Cedar Key...
FLC017-012300-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
FLORIDA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
553 PM EDT THU SEP 1 2016

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
FLORIDA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY.

CITRUS COUNTY - DANGEROUS COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE. MONITOR MEDIA
OUTLETS.
Quoting 665. WXMichael:

Looking at this cam on the beak. Water coming up now.

St. George Island Live Cam

I am thinking it will cross through GA into SC around Aiken, unless the front starts influencing it to the east more... Of course one comes through the lowland now that i don't live there.


I'm in Aiken. Will set up the Gopro if it's near us and post the link.
Latest HRRR just started..

Looks to be pretty much what the current radar is showing



For people that don't have cable but use Sling.

Weather Network broadcast on the channel local now! Pretty cool!
Quoting 665. WXMichael:

Looking at this cam on the beak. Water coming up now.

St. George Island Live Cam

I am thinking it will cross through GA into SC around Aiken, unless the front starts influencing it to the east more... Of course one comes through the lowland now that i don't live there.

it is going to hit directly between Columbia and Charleston....
Quoting 679. royremi:

For people that don't have cable but use Sling.

Weather Network broadcast on the channel local now! Pretty cool!



Link it!!!
682. Ed22
Quoting 655. FIUStormChaser:

Eye has shrunken drastically on Satellite Imagery.


That shows its strengthening rapidly too, furthermore pressure is falling within the eye and winds is increasing too as it nears landfall in a couple of hours around 4 to 8 hours from now.
... I take it the MLC/LLC are finally vertically stacked? :P
Quoting 672. jordan1tylerr:



Never a good sign when a storm has not one, but two "ripples" of heavy storms popping around the eye.
Quoting 683. CybrTeddy:

... I take it the MLC/LLC are finally vertically stacked? :P

Slightly. I'm personally very happy that the storm struggled so much the past few days. If it stacked back when the kiddos were wishcasting it to... we'd be talking a major coming ashore.
Quoting 681. 62901IL:




Link it!!!


It's not sling box, it's sling TV. Dish network internet offer!

sling.com
Quoting 655. FIUStormChaser:

Eye has shrunken drastically on Satellite Imagery.


Do we have a pinhole?
;)
Downtown Charleston is offering free parking in the garages for the storm...must be removed by noon Saturday

Shadowmoss Subdivision preparing for flooding (major damage this past October from flooding)

Sandbags bout out

🌎 🌊 🎑

Why does The Weather Channels Carl Parker, Mike Bettes and Chris Warren look like triplets?.
Quoting 684. jeffs713:


Never a good sign when a storm has not one, but two "ripples" of heavy storms popping around the eye.
Good thing she's been cleared for landing soon.
Quoting 683. CybrTeddy:

... I take it the MLC/LLC are finally vertically stacked? :P


Looks that way, could do wonders for it when it comes back over water and shear decreases, could become tropical again and gain intensity off the NC coastline before heading to the 40N: 70W benchmark for New England. Hurricane force winds could be possible if it regains tropical characteristics.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hnFwVdE3k5w As promised, my livestream of WS 4000 as Hurricane Hermine approaches Florida is up, this is based out of Tallahassee, but you will clearly be able to see the eye making landfall in the style of the 90's local on the 8's along with the hurricane conditions local forecast.
Quoting 682. Ed22:

That shows its strengthening rapidly too, furthermore pressure is falling within the eye and winds is increasing too as it nears landfall in a couple of hours around 4 to 8 hours from now.


This shot of storms firing around the eye is very awesome.
Quoting 688. Barefootontherocks:

Do we have a pinhole?
;)

The red ring is blooming ...for sure.
Is it going to try and go Humberto?

And the central Florida rain shield goes up again. Hardly anything. Tampa, can you send some of that rain our way?
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Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
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SVR T-STORM WARNING SALT LAKE CITY UT - KSLC 356 PM MDT THU SEP 1 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING POCATELLO ID - KPIH 339 PM MDT THU SEP 1 2016
TORNADO WARNING     TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL - KTBW 527 PM EDT THU SEP 1 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING LAS VEGAS NV - KVEF 210 PM MST THU SEP 1 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MELBOURNE FL - KMLB 452 PM EDT THU SEP 1 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING LAS VEGAS NV - KVEF 147 PM PDT THU SEP 1 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING NEW YORK NY - KOKX 343 PM EDT THU SEP 1 2016
TORNADO WARNING     MELBOURNE FL - KMLB 339 PM EDT THU SEP 1 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MELBOURNE FL - KMLB 336 PM EDT THU SEP 1 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 229 PM CDT THU SEP 1 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING FLAGSTAFF AZ - KFGZ 1228 PM MST THU SEP 1 2016
TORNADO WARNING     TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL - KTBW 318 PM EDT THU SEP 1 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 216 PM CDT THU SEP 1 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MELBOURNE FL - KMLB 305 PM EDT THU SEP 1 2016
on approach too landfall

09L/H/H/C1

West of north now.
Quoting 698. StormJunkie:

Is it going to try and go Humberto?




Or Charley? Let's hope not.
Recall that winds do not immediately respond to pressure falls, and that there is oftentimes a lag between the pressure falling and winds picking up. Point is we could see the pressure fall up until landfall but see very little increase in wind speed. Just food for thought
Please excuse me for not checking the blog first but I have just set up a hot spot with my phone and hope that someone can post the Duke Energy outages link again. Madeira Beach here and we lost ours with the band that passed over us. Lots of sideward rain an wind in that one. Very tropical :)
Surge coming in good.

Link

Eye really taking shape. Dangerous situation considering many thought just a tropical storm coming.
system is now due south of Apalachicola and appears to be intensifying. Landfall will be east of there
is noaa recon done?
Quoting 697. Starhopper:


The red ring is blooming ...for sure.

Usually no pinholes until about 950 mb or below. Not quite there.
R.I R.I.This could top out at 90mph.
SJ,
Pretty sure Hermine's got Humberto beat.


SD
Quoting 629. tiggeriffic:



haven't seen a single bird or squirrel in my neighborhood all day....and my dog chases both non stop...dog bored as all get out....just saying


My mini Doxie has been barking and growling at Shem Creek at day ... he doesn't usually do this
99L finally makes good on its potential......LOL
Its going to get real ugly for some folks..

716. Ed22
Quoting 703. 62901IL:



Or Charley? Let's hope not.
trust me its gonna do just that, if not worse.
Click image for loop

Quoting 705. icmoore:

Please excuse me for not checking the blog first but I have just set up a hot spot with my phone and hope that someone can post the Duke Energy outages link again. Madeira Beach here and we lost ours with the band that passed over us. Lots of sideward rain an wind in that one. Very tropical :)
Duke Energy outages
Quoting 704. WDEmobmet:

Recall that winds do not immediately respond to pressure falls, and that there is oftentimes a lag between the pressure falling and winds picking up. Point is we could see the pressure fall up until landfall but see very little increase in wind speed. Just food for thought


Begs the question of what happens when it is a land falling system? Just slows the weakening process?
Tampa is about to get slammed.
Quoting 713. stormycreek89:



My mini Doxie has been barking and growling at Shem Creek at day ... he doesn't usually do this


by tonight I will have to drug my dog... a kid down the street threw fireworks at him a couple years ago...now lightning and thunder freak him out....actually has panic attacks...
Quoting 677. eljefe711:



I'm in Aiken. Will set up the Gopro if it's near us and post the link.


Nice! I used to live in Gem Lakes and work at SRS. Closest one I think I saw was Irene in 2011, and we just had the clouds.
Quoting 698. StormJunkie:

Is it going to try and go Humberto?




This thing has really pulled out all the stops!! What do you think we will experience here in the Low Country? I'm in Mt. P.
Quoting 675. Articuno:

Link

Things really going downhill near Cedar Key...


Wind just picked up on that cam. A good reminder why I'll never ride out a hurricane again.

Kinda hurts my stomach to even watch. Best wishes to everyone in the path, I hope it goes fast and with as little damage as possible.
When the CV genesis seed finds its groove and finds land,


They don't care,


Beware and take care.

Lives could be taken.


Quoting 724. SCwannabee:



This thing has really pulled out all the stops!! What do you think we will experience here in the Low Country? I'm in Mt. P.


watch live 5 news.... bill walsh has a good handle on this thing
Quoting 719. StormJunkie:



Begs the question of what happens when it is a land falling system? Just slows the weakening process?
Question in my mind is how much will Hermine really weaken before re-entering sea water.
I can factually tell you the good people of Savannah are not taking it lightly..."full on hurricane" or not.

I have been living the Labor Day Grocerypocalypse of 2016 for the last 10 hours.

Ready for tomorrow. Stay safe down there in the panhandle.
Quoting 707. Abacosurf:

Surge coming in good.

Link

Eye really taking shape. Dangerous situation considering many thought just a tropical storm coming.


I have been hearing CAT 1 at landfall for at least 24 hours.
Quoting 721. tiggeriffic:



by tonight I will have to drug my dog... a kid down the street threw fireworks at him a couple years ago...now lightning and thunder freak him out....actually has panic attacks...


Ugh... hate that happened to your pup. I had a doxie about 20yrs ago that trembled non-stop during storms.
Quoting 683. CybrTeddy:

... I take it the MLC/LLC are finally vertically stacked? :P


Agree...it only took 10 or so days!!
736. IDTH
Quoting 722. Climate175:



Looks to be a developing a smaller eye wall
Quoting 728. tiggeriffic:



watch live 5 news.... bill walsh has a good handle on this thing


I concur!!!
738. Ed22
Quoting 706. Patrap:


Rapid intensification taking place right now with Hurricane Hermine, pressure reading could be around 965 - 975 mbs at landfall. I'm holding on to my wind prediction 90 or 100 mph, anyone has anything to say?
Quoting 657. OKsky:



This song goes out to those people.
I prefer the Clash's version https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zyv16mZakVE
740. skook
Sewage plants are starting to fail in the tampa bay area.
You people in the storms path on higher ground, stay away from windows, secure all doors. A mattress has saved many a life. It will be likely impossible to move around outside and super dangerous in many locations. All people in trailers in the hurricane wind zone hopefully evacuated.
After the storm watch out for animals, snakes,red ants, looters, and downed power lines. The wind can last for hours after the worst passes but will subside. The cops will be combing the streets ASAP, don't go out if you do not need to. You don't want to look like who they are watching for, or like you need help when you don't. It wastes their time. They need space, plus it can be dangerous or worse due to debris. Stay Safe and keep cool
Quoting 699. cabice:

And the central Florida rain shield goes up again. Hardly anything. Tampa, can you send some of that rain our way?


Don't know where you're at in Central Florida, but since yesterday morning, I've had 2.87" here in Cocoa, FL. Also had a wind gust to 58mph in a squall earlier this afternoon
Quoting 730. SouthernDiscomfort:

I can factually tell you the good people of Savannah are not taking it lightly..."full on hurricane" or not.

I have been living the Labor Day Grocerypocalypse of 2016 for the last 10 hours.

Ready for tomorrow. Stay safe down there in the panhandle.


Was wondering if "Grocerypocalyspe" has extended all the way up the Atlantic coast since Hurricane Local Statements are now coming out as far north as NJ.
Quoting 723. WXMichael:



Nice! I used to live in Gem Lakes and work at SRS. Closest one I think I saw was Irene in 2011, and we just had the clouds.


Talatha Gardens here. Was in Columbia when Hugo hit Charleston and saw 80-90 mph winds. Dad was in charge of Charleston Co transmission lines for SCE&G back then, so I've been watching these things since 89.
746. Ed22
Quoting 734. Grothar:


Hurricane Hermine is rapidly intensifying now as we speak.
you'd think hermine instead of dying a slow death in a s. georgia swamp she would make a move ne for the warm water of the atlantic
Quoting 618. Jedkins01:

I'm only not reporting much cause I want to experience this in person even though it's just beginning, and though I'm excited to experience the end of the hurricane drought in Florida while also likely getting my first hurricane eyewall experience, I'd be lying if there wasn't a bit of nervousness/fear since I've never gone through the inner core of a hurricane.

With that said it's been a heck of a day, along the way back home to my apartment, I got word that the TWC was stationed live at a part I frequently go running at by my apartment! So I headed over with other FSU meteorology majors and got to meet Maria LaRosa from TWC!

BTW I'm the short guy just to the left of Maria, my identity is revealed! lol




Also, last night I drove Kori down to Apalachicola so he could chase this event. He's a nice guy and we had plenty of good meteorology talks along the way!




Jed, you need to get to bed early tonight. No need to stay up for the storm. School is a priority. 🌬🌬🌬🌬⛈⛈⛈🌩🌩⚡️🌬⚡️ ️
Intrigued to find out the gusts in those squalls in the Tampa/St. Pete metro.
Quoting 679. royremi:

For people that don't have cable but use Sling.

Weather Network broadcast on the channel local now! Pretty cool!


Thank you for posting this! I use Sling TV. It is a bargain compared to cable if you have a fast Internet connection.
Quoting 733. stormycreek89:



Ugh... hate that happened to your pup. I had a doxie about 20yrs ago that trembled non-stop during storms.


I will be able to watch him tho...he can hear thunder long before I can.... he paces and glues himself to my leg... 10 minutes later....I hear the thunder.... strangest thing I have seen tho.... last night we saw an opossum on our fence.... live in the middle of west Ashley.... hwy 61 is literally behind my house.... just strange to see them in my part of town (and to those that are going to say something.... my dog was a hunting dog, he tracks squirrels, etc... if there was an opossum living by us, he would have already indicated it to me long before yesterday)
Storm surge in Cedar Key will become significant when the winds start coming more out of the S.W. driving the water into that area.
The wind is currently out of the ESE in Cedar Key.
Please remember people this is just a Cat 1.

What a Hell of a mess allready.

Please take note that these things cause serious damage to everything they touch. They take away everything you want and leave everything you wish you never had expirianced.
Quoting 720. Chicklit:

Tampa is about to get slammed.



Agree Chicklit....won't go down as a direct hit for them. But sometimes being on the dirty side is worse than being in the center of the cone. You can only imagine the surf that is being thrown into the bay with that circulation.
Light breeze, light rain, light spooky feeling here in coastal Panama City.
If Hermine strengthens quickly and more then expected over the next 6-10 hours expect a more eastward poleward movememt towards the northern part of the big bend.
scott was not far off.
Anyone have good graphic on how far the Hurricane force winds extend. ? That is the worst zone
of course, not just the X .
759. Ed22
Quoting 736. IDTH:


Looks to be a developing a smaller eye wall
It isn't pretty for Florida right now, the devastation is going to cost the US Government millions.
Center getting tight.

761. FOREX
Quoting 756. WeatherkidJoe2323:

If Hermine strengthens quickly and more then expected over the next 6-10 hours expect a more eastward poleward movememt towards the northern part of the big bend.
landfall is in 4 hours
Did Recon stop flying?.No Update on winds?.
Quoting 719. StormJunkie:



Begs the question of what happens when it is a land falling system? Just slows the weakening process?


Good question. Would love to know the answer
I have watched all the models runs today and cant say that I have seen a model initialized correctly for intensity..either 2 or 3 mbs off which I have to think plays a part with rain totals, track etc..


Quoting 761. FOREX:

landfall is in 4 hours


I actually doubt that, looks like it is going to hit East of Apalachicola where the coast is further north, which will delay landfall. The NHC in their 4pm CDT advisory did not have Hermine making landfall for another 12 hours.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Just got real in Tampa. Nasty band came through.
s/v Tumbleweed, Too is secure in her slip at Bohicket Marina...provisions are laid in...the crew is ready...and we have a nun praying get for us in the chapel at Blessed Sacrament parish...
Lucky their isn't a classic eye wall (solid donut).
Very ragged eye
Wonderful....

She's putting on a show with another 5-6 hrs before landfall.

Not good.
its worse than i expect good luck all
Here are a couple of local Jacksonville live HD cams to track progress of Hermine as she approaches the East Coast.

Live HD cam for Jacksonville Beach: http://www.surfline.com/surf-report/jacksonville-b each-pier-florida_5315/

Downtown Jax, St. Augustine, Orange Park live cams: http://www.actionnewsjax.com/weather/skycams
Quoting 759. Ed22:

It isn't pretty for Florida right now, the devastation is going to cost the US Government millions.


It's only a Cat 1 hurricane; the damage will be minimal.
Um is it me, or was there 10 minutes of recon data that went missing? On both the NHC site and Tropical Atlantic, the 1st set of obs were 21:52Z-22:01Z, but the next set was 22:12Z-22:21Z. There is data between there missing that would likely show the actual pressure
Quoting 762. MeteorologistTV:

Did Recon stop flying?.No Update on winds?.


no there still out there


i think recon is staying there up too land fall

Link
Quoting 721. tiggeriffic:



by tonight I will have to drug my dog... a kid down the street threw fireworks at him a couple years ago...now lightning and thunder freak him out....actually has panic attacks...

Same here. We are not sure what happened to Max, but he is a huge Lab-shepherd mix who cowers under or on the furniture during thunderstorms and fireworks. He has even pulled over furniture. We have drugs, but we also use something called Calming by Vermont Naturals (sorry I do not mean to plug--I have no relation to the company other than as a consumer), but I feel bad for dogs during these storms and just want to share something works. When storm gets really crazy--then we move to the Vet prescribed sedatives.

Waiting in Gainesville for something to happen--but it keeps skirting us!
Can't say she's not trying. Starting to wrap that convection up tightly around her eye. Wouldn't be surprised if she made cat 2 prior to landfall. Just don't like her increasing her wind field, was kinda hoping not to get much of a storm here in Jax. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/html5 -vis-long.html
I think Tallahassee is gonna get a wallop....I guess the Gov won't have to travel far to see the devastation.
781. Ed22
Quoting 768. Patrap:


around the eye wall is very,very,very intense right now, guys whats the latest pressure readings now, anyone?
Quoting 751. tiggeriffic:



I will be able to watch him tho...he can hear thunder long before I can.... he paces and glues himself to my leg... 10 minutes later....I hear the thunder.... strangest thing I have seen tho.... last night we saw an opossum on our fence.... live in the middle of west Ashley.... hwy 61 is literally behind my house.... just strange to see them in my part of town (and to those that are going to say something.... my dog was a hunting dog, he tracks squirrels, etc... if there was an opossum living by us, he would have already indicated it to me long before yesterday)


Tiger, we are in forest lakes with a 10# min pin that is terrified of thunder. Refilled her alprazolam yesterdays the bees ferry. Hopefully this will blow through before she knew that it rained. We lose power every couple weeks in the storms so I have the batteries for the radio charged up. Kick back with the radio cranked up and she sleeps like a baby.
Slept through the second half of Hugo in shadowmoss, so not expecting much. Did pull the boat from under the big tree. Looks like we hit this first gap perfect and the yard needs the rain. Tornados are my only worry.
Crossing my fingers for everyone in big bend. As least it should blow through there quick so we can get the recovery started. Material things can be replaced. Stay safe down there.
783. Ed22
Quoting 774. waccamatt:



It's only a Cat 1 hurricane; the damage will be minimal.
But still, its going cost.
Quoting 771. nash36:

Wonderful....

She's putting on a show with another 5-6 hrs before landfall.

Not good.
IT NOT THAT LONG MAYBE 2 HRS TOPS
Quoting 774. waccamatt:



It's only a Cat 1 hurricane; the damage will be minimal.
Good evening Matt..Damage will not be minimal.
09L/H/H/C1
LANDFALL WILL BE NEAR 29.9N/84.4W
789. Ed22
Quoting 787. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

09L/H/H/C1

That shows rapidly intensifying Hurricane Hermine.
Quoting 789. Ed22:

That shows rapidly intensifying Hurricane Hermine.
it will be cat 2 just prior to landfall
Quoting 785. hydrus:

Good evening Matt..Damage will not be minimal.


Actually could be one of the better places to landfall (if it could go just a hair to the east of the cooridinates Keep showed.). All park there, no structures in the immediate vicinity of the coast. That would be a good thing.
792. Ed22
Quoting 790. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

it will be cat 2 just prior to landfall
Very well be a cat 2.
793. Ed22
Quoting 738. Ed22:

Rapid intensification taking place right now with Hurricane Hermine, pressure reading could be around 965 - 975 mbs at landfall. I'm holding on to my wind prediction 90 or 100 mph, anyone has anything to say?
Getting the pin eye look now but around the eye wall very,very,very,very intense towering cloud tops, furthermore intensifying rapidly now. 965 to 970 mbs the best right now with this rapidly intensifying Hurricane Hermine.
The first Florida hurricane in 11 years. Many of us have never tracked this before--a testament to how long this streak lasted.

Quoting 790. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

it will be cat 2 just prior to landfall


Recon winds aren't supporting that yet. Not sure how long this most recent pressure drop will take to catch up in wind speed, but I find it hard to believe it will break the 95mph mark to make Cat 2. Could be close if it keeps this up, jogs E a little, or slows down.
Quoting 451. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


Its been over 100 years since anyone in new Jersey has had a hurricane.
Isaac was a tropical storm.
Sandy was post tropical.
Just heavy snow in winter and sometimes more than an inch of rain in a day. Mostly once a month from spring to fall. We almost never have more than an inch of rain in a single day. When it happens it is normally in the south.

Just a quick question, how often does over an inch of rain fall in New Jeresy or any where else in the us?
797. Ed22
Quoting 794. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The first Florida hurricane in 11 years. Many of us have never tracked this before--a testament to how long this streak lasted.


It could very well nearing cat.2 if not already, pretty impressive pin whole eye with very,very,very intense towering cloud tops.
Quoting 765. Hurricanes101:



I actually doubt that, looks like it is going to hit East of Apalachicola where the coast is further north, which will delay landfall. The NHC in their 4pm CDT advisory did not have Hermine making landfall for another 12 hours.
Land fall between St. Marks and Panacea Fl
799. Ed22
Quoting 795. StormJunkie:



Recon winds aren't supporting that yet. Not sure how long this most recent pressure drop will take to catch up in wind speed, but I find it hard to believe it will break the 95mph mark to make Cat 2. Could be close if it keeps this up, jogs E a little, or slows down.
Don't underestimate Hurricane Hermine might just do that.
800. Ed22
Quoting 794. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The first Florida hurricane in 11 years. Many of us have never tracked this before--a testament to how long this streak lasted.


Whats the current winds speed and pressure readings.
This is similar to how Charley intensified approaching landfall in 2004.. although Charley was further along so it maxed out at cat 4.
Carabelle Florida webcam near the landfall of Hermine. Will these trees be standing tommorrow? Water level rising.
Link
We have a sunset currently in Panama City Beach!
Huge fetch in the SE quadrant boosting the storm surge now.

Sunset Panama City Beach @7:00 CDT (post are late)


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1615
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0544 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN FL PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 460...

VALID 012244Z - 020145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 460 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES WITH CONVECTION ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF HERMINE.

DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS CURRENTLY A LULL IN CONVECTION OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...AT LEAST TWO ORGANIZED BANDS OF
CONVECTION WILL SWING ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITHIN A RICH
LOW-LEVEL STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY ENVIRONMENT PER RECENT TBW VAD
WIND PROFILES. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FIRST BAND IS CURRENTLY
NOSING INTO THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND THE SECOND BAND WILL MOVE ONSHORE
FROM TBW NORTHWARD BY AROUND 2315 UTC. WHILE TRANSIENT LOW-LEVEL
ROTATION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF TORNADOES IS POSSIBLE ALL ALONG
THESE BANDS...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS APPEARS
TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER WHERE CONVECTION INTERACTS WITH BAROCLINIC
BOUNDARIES DEPICTED ON THE MCD GRAPHIC. A RELATIVELY THIN CIRRUS
SHIELD IN THE WAKE OF THE LINE SEGMENT THAT PUSHED OFF SHORE NEAR
MLB IS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 80S ON THE
WARM SIDE OF THESE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARIES. FARTHER SOUTH FROM TBW TO
FMY...THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE BAND WILL PUSH ON
SHORE BETWEEN 2230 AND 2300 UTC...BUT LOW-LEVEL SRH VALUES ARE
LIKELY A LITTLE LOWER IN THIS REGION GIVEN THE VEERED SURFACE WINDS
AND INCREASED DISTANCE FROM THE STRONGER 900-700 MB CYCLONIC FLOW.
MESOSCALE EVOLUTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGHOUT
THE WATCH PERIOD WITH AN ADDITIONAL MCD UPDATE ON THE WATCH STATUS
WILL BE ISSUED BY 02 UTC.

..CONIGLIO/EDWARDS.. 09/01/2016


ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...
Looks a little less impressive than it did two hours ago. I don't think it'll manage to intensify to Cat 2 storm before landfall.


Quoting 785. hydrus:

Good evening Matt..Damage will not be minimal.

Pinellas County has not had a bad storm in many decades. There was a cat 1 in the late 1960s (sorry--I was 4 cannot remember the name), the March Storm of 1993, but no direct hits. In the 1970s, half of the county commissioners were convicted of bribery for allowing building in unsafe areas. After Andrew in South Florida, it was apparent that many inspectors had been bribed to allow shoddy workmanship. I would not be surprised at all if many structures in Pinellas or other areas of the Gulf Coast were not up to code and so even a cat 1 could cause serious damage to homes and other buildings.
Ex 92L starting to fire up convection in the Central Atlantic.