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Hurricane Watch Continues for TD 9; Hawaii Hunkers Down for Madeline

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 4:20 PM GMT on August 31, 2016

A Hurricane Watch continues for the Florida Gulf Coast from the Anclote River to Indian Pass, and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for portions of the Florida and Georgia Atlantic coasts as Tropical Depression Nine sits nearly stationary in the Gulf of Mexico, deciding what to do next. Satellite images on Wednesday morning showed a significant change to TD 9’s organization, with a huge blow-up of heavy thunderstorms over the storm’s center, which created a central dense overcast (CDO) of high cirrus clouds. A CDO is typically the classic sign of a tropical cyclone undergoing significant intensification, but this particular cloud signature is different from the classic CDO, and is often associated with a storm in an arrested state of development (see the discussion of "Central Cold Cover" after Figure 7 in the original 1984 satellite classification paper by Dvorak, 1984.)

There have been no hurricane hunter missions into TD 9 since Tuesday night, so NHC elected not to upgrade TD 9 to Tropical Storm Hermine. The Hurricane Hunters were scheduled to fly a number of missions into TD 8 and TD 9 since last night, but no missions flew. They may be over-extended and suffering mechanical issues, due to the grueling requirements of flying three simultaneous storms over a multi-day period in both the Atlantic and Pacific. Starting this week, the National Center for Atmospheric Research is sending the NSF/NCAR Gulfstream-V aircraft to sample the large-scale environment around Atlantic storms through October while NOAA’s Gulfstream-IV undergoes maintenance. As of 1 pm EDT Wednesday, a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft had begun a mission into TD 9.

Buoy 42003, located about 200 miles to the northeast of TD 9’s center, has seen a steady increase in wind speed on Wednesday morning. At 11 am EDT, winds at the buoy were 31 mph, gusting to 38 mph. The strong winds from TD 9 were already creating a two-foot storm surge at Cedar Key, Florida on Wednesday morning. A nearby ship measured sustained winds of 42 mph at 8 am EDT, but this measurement may have been made at a height much higher than the standard 10 meters above the surface used for classifying systems as tropical storms. Wind shear continued to be a moderate 10 - 15 knots on Wednesday morning, but water vapor satellite imagery still showed plenty of dry air to the storm’s north and west; the combination of these factors is likely slowing down the intensification process. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) near TD 9’s center remained favorable for development, near 30.5°C (87°F). 


Figure 1. The view of TD 9 from the cockpit of NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft N43RF (Miss Piggy) on an August 30, 2016 flight. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/HRD Twitter feed.


Figure 2. Radar estimated rainfall between August 29 - August 31, 2016 from the Tampa radar. Swaths of 2 - 4” of rain (yellow colors) were common over Florida.

Track forecast for TD 9: a Florida Gulf Coast landfall, followed by a run up the Southeast coast
The latest Wednesday morning runs of our top models are in solid agreement that TD 9 will make landfall along the Florida Big Bend coast north of Tampa on Thursday afternoon or evening. In their 11 am EDT Wednesday Wind Probability Forecast, NHC’s highest odds for getting tropical storm force winds of 34+ mph from TD 9 along the Gulf Coast of Florida were 59%, 56%, and 55%, respectively, for Apalachicola, St. Marks and Cedar Key, Florida.


Figure 3. Projected 7-day rainfall from 12Z (8:00 am EDT) Wednesday, August 31, through 12Z Wednesday, September 7, 2016. Rainfall amounts of 5 - 10” are expected along TD 9’s path across Florida and along the Southeast U.S. coast. Heavy rains from the system may also affect Southeast Massachusetts on Labor Day. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center.

A Labor Day spoiler for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S.?
Once TD 9 crosses over Florida and southern Georgia and enters the Atlantic again, the storm will be directly over the axis of the very warm Gulf Stream current. This will make the storm resist weakening, despite the expected presence of high wind shear in excess of 20 knots. The storm will also begin transitioning to a powerful extratropical storm at that time, and begin deriving energy from atmospheric dynamics, rather than from the heat energy of the ocean. In their 11 am EDT Tuesday Wind Probability Forecast, NHC gave odds of at least 25% for tropical storm-force winds affecting the Southeast U.S. coast from Daytona Beach, Florida northwards to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina--including the entire coasts of Georgia and South Carolina.

The official NHC forecast at 11 am EDT Wednesday had TD 9 headed northeastward out to sea, caught in the steering flow of a trough of low pressure, after clearing the coast of North Carolina on Saturday. TD 9 is likely to become a powerful extratropical storm with 60 - 65 mph winds by Sunday. However, the extratropical storm expected to emerge from TD 9 may turn north and spoil the Labor Day plans of millions of people in the Northeast U.S. The latest 06Z (2 am EDT) and 12Z (8 am EDT) Wednesday runs of the GFS model predicted that the trough pulling TD 9 to the northeast would quickly be replaced by a ridge of high pressure, resulting in a northward turn by TD 9 followed by a stall after passing by North Carolina. This track would threaten the Mid-Atlantic coast with heavy rain on Saturday and Sunday, spreading into the Northeast coast on Sunday and Monday. In their latest 0Z Wednesday (8 pm EDT Tuesday) runs, the European and UKMET models did not go along with this idea as strongly--predicting that TD 9 would stay well away form the Mid-Atlantic coast--but they had the storm potentially threatening Southeast Massachusetts on Monday (Labor Day.)

The bottom line: there is an unusually large amount of uncertainty with TD 9’s possible track over the weekend, and the storm might be capable of bringing heavy rain and strong winds--potentially at tropical storm force--to the New England and Mid-Atlantic coasts.


Figure 4. Screen shot of NHC’s interactive Storm Surge Probability product from 5 am EDT Wednesday, August 31, 2016, showing the probability of inundation in excess of 4’ above ground level from TD 9. A 100-mile stretch of the Florida Gulf Coast to the right of where the center of TD 9 is expected to make landfall is predicted to have a 60 - 70% chance of getting a inundation in excess of four feet (orange colors). The odds were around 40% near Savannah, Georgia. The graphic is based upon an ensemble of Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model runs created using the current National Hurricane Center (NHC) official hurricane advisory. Storm surge probabilities depend on the historical accuracy of NHC's forecasts of hurricane track, and wind speed, and an estimate of storm size.

Intensity forecast: TD 9 likely to stay below hurricane strength
The SHIPS model on Wednesday morning predicted moderately favorable conditions for intensification, with wind shear staying a moderate 10 - 15 knots through landfall on Thursday afternoon. SSTs will be a very warm 30 - 30.5°C (86 - 87°F), and mid-level relative humidity was predicted to be a reasonably moist 65%. Our three best intensity models--the HWRF, DSHIPS and LGEM models--were in reasonable agreement with their latest runs available late Wednesday morning, with landfall intensities for TD 9 ranging from 55 - 70 mph. NHC is going with a forecast of a 65 mph tropical storm at landfall. The Gulf Coast of Florida is highly vulnerable to large storm surges, due to the extensive stretch of shallow continental shelf waters offshore that extend up to 90 miles from the coast. On Wednesday morning, NHC was calling for a maximum storm surge of 3 - 5’ above ground from TD 9 along a stretch of the Florida coast to the right of where the center is expected to make landfall. The other main hazard from TD 9 is heavy rain--rainfall amounts of 5 - 10” are expected along TD 9’s path across Florida, with 15” possible near the coast where the storm makes landfall. We also cannot rule out a few tornadoes from the storm.


Figure 5. Infrared satellite image of Hurricane Madeline at 1400Z (10:00 am EDT) Wednesday, August 31, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Weakening Madeline still on track to sweep past Hawaii’s Big Island
Hurricane Madeline is taking a turn for the better as far as Hawaiians are concerned. Madeline has weakened dramatically over the past 24 hours, losing its well-defined eye and becoming much less organized (see image above). After topping out with 135-mph sustained winds on Tuesday morning, Madeline’s top winds were down to 80 mph as of the 11 am EDT advisory from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC). Now a Category 1 storm, Madeline is ingesting fairly dry mid-level air (relative humidities of 30-40%) in moderate wind shear of 15-20 knots. All of these factors should keep Madeline’s intensity on a downward path, even as it moves over steadily higher SSTs.

Another piece of good news: the much-anticipated leftward swing in Madeline’s path now appears more likely to keep the center from making landfall on the Big Island. All of the major computer models now keep Madeline’s track just south of the island. Madeline was only about 140 miles east-southeast of Hilo at 5:00 am HST (11:00 am EDT). The latest CPHC outlook brings Madeline within about 50 miles of the southeast coast of the Big Island this afternoon as a minimal hurricane. Since hurricane-force winds extend ony about 10 miles from Madeline’s center, such a track would keep those winds offshore, although gusts could still reach 80 - 100 mph in a few spots. The most likely outcome for the bulk of the Big Island is widespread tropical-storm-force winds sustained at 40 - 70 mph, strongest toward the south. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Big Island, and a Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the islands of Maui, Molokai, Lanai and Kahoolawe.

Potential impacts from Madeline
The steep topography along the shore of the Hawaiian Islands tends to minimize storm surge while maximizing surf height. Surf as high as 25 feet can be expected along the Big Island’s east- and south-facing coastlines. A storm surge of 1-3 feet is possible along parts of Hawaii’s southern and eastern coast. Storm surge expert Hal Needham provided background on Hawaii’s surge and surf risk from tropical cyclones in a blog post on Tuesday afternoon. Heavy rains are already beginning to nudge into the Big Island, and torrential rains, landslides, and flooding are a distinct possibility. Localized rainfall amounts could exceed 15” along east-facing slopes as Madeline’s winds slam against the Big Island’s mountainous terrain. The best place to find frequently updated local statements on Madeline’s expected impact is at a dedicated website maintained by the National Weather Service office in Honolulu.

Overall, Madeline’s impact could match or exceed that of Hurricane Iselle (2014), another Category 4 storm that weakened quickly while approaching Hawaii. Iselle struck on the Big Island as a moderate tropical storm--the strongest landfall on record for the island--and caused 1 fatality and inflicted nearly $80 million in damage across Hawaii, qualifying as an agricultural disaster. This year’s Hurricane Darby came ashore on the Big Island as a 40-mph tropical storm on July 23, with widespread flooding but no deaths or major damage.

Hawaii’s hurricane history and its potential hurricane future
Apart from Iselle and Darby, only three other tropical cyclones have made landfall anywhere in Hawaii since records began in 1949:

--The state’s worst hurricane by far, Hurricane Iniki, which hit Kauai as a Category 4 hurricane, killed 6 and caused $1.8 billion in damage (1992 dollars.)

--Hurricane Dot, which hit Kauai as a Category 1 hurricane, caused 6 indirect deaths and $6 million in damage (1959 dollars.)

--An unnamed 1958 storm that brought sustained winds of 50 mph at landfall to the Big Island killed one person and caused $0.5 million in damage.

The region around Hawaii has seen a lot of tropical activity over the past four years, including a number of near-misses. Partly this is a result of El Niño, which warmed the waters of the tropical Central and Eastern Pacific where Hawaii-heading cyclones are born. However, the uptick may also be a harbinger of things to come. See the August 2014 post, Climate Change May Increase the Number of Hawaiian Hurricanes.

The winds at 13,000 feet on Mauna Kea
The weather on top of the highest point in Hawaii, the Big Island's Mauna Kea, elevation 13,796' (4,205 m), will be interesting to follow as Madeline passes the Big Island. Winds will rise steadily today, and there are six anemometers on top of the mountain to watch. However, beware of the data from the Canada - France - Hawaii Telescope (CFHT). The Mauna Kea webcam page says that those winds are highly exaggerated due to location of the anemometer tower between two large telescope domes. You can see this tower on Google Maps.

Links
Regional Hawaii radar
Weather on Mauna Kea
Live stream from KHON2 TV in Honolulu
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
2-km resolution WRF model output from the University of Hawaii for Hawaii
Storm surge maps for Oahu
Storm info from Tropical Tidbits
NWS Honolulu



Figure 6. Infrared satellite image of Hurricane Lester at 1400Z (10:00 am EDT) Wednesday, August 31, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Lester still lurking farther east of Hawaii
While Madeline has lost ground in the past day, Hurricane Lester remains a powerful and well-organized Category 4 storm. Lester was located about 1085 miles east of Hilo as of the 11 AM EDT Wednesday advisory from NHC. (Advisories on Lester will be issued by CPHC once the hurricane moves west of 140°W.) Lester’s core of intense storms has shrunk and become more asymmetric over the last few hours, but its top sustained winds have dropped only slightly, down to 130 mph in the most recent advisory from a Tuesday night peak of 140 mph.

Computer models agree that Lester’s westward path will start bending toward the west-northwest by Thursday, with the hurricane gradually weakening as it encounters greater wind shear and waters churned up by Madeline. Computer models are in close agreement on taking Lester just north of Hawaii during the weekend on a path closely paralleling the island chain. The NHC outlook positions Lester about 100 miles north of Oahu early Sunday as a strong tropical storm. It’s still uncertain exactly how close Lester’s path will be to Hawaii, especially Oahu, so residents throughout the state need to keep tabs on this powerful storm. One good thing: assuming no major southward shift in the path, Hawaii will lie on the weaker left-hand (south) side of Lester, which would reduce the potential impact. Huge surf is a safe bet.


Figure 7. Visible satellite image of Hurricane Gaston at 1015Z (7:15 am EDT) Wednesday, August 31, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Spectacular Gaston heads toward the Azores
For a good contrast with the underperforming, disheveled TD 9, you need look no further than Category 3 Hurricane Gaston (above), which has become a marvel of persistence and organization. Gaston didn’t hit its stride until it reached the subtropics, around 30°N. Here, Gaston lingered for days in very weak wind shear atop unusually warm waters (1-2°C above average), gathering strength even as it churned up deeper, cooler water. Gaston became a Category 3 storm for the second time on Tuesday night, matching its peak sustained winds of 120 mph from Sunday night. Fortunately, Gaston has remained well northeast of Bermuda, posing a threat only to shipping thus far. At 11 am EDT Wednesday, Gaston was located about 1150 miles west of Faiail Island in the Azores with top sustained winds of 115 mph.

Gaston has become a classic example of an annular hurricane--the type with a huge eye surrounded by a solid ring of thunderstorms, with little or none of the spiral banding typical of strong hurricane. Annular storms develop when enough mixing occurs between the eye and eyewall to allow the eye to expand. Because of their resilient structure, annular storms are less vulnerable to disruption and often maintain intensity longer than their peers. Gaston could remain a major hurricane into Thursday, when it will begin accelerating east-northeast over cooler waters amid increasing wind shear. The latest NHC outlook brings Gaston across the Azores late Friday into early Saturday as a strong tropical storm. NHC will likely be issuing a Hurricane Watch or Tropical Storm Watch for parts of the Azores later Wednesday Given its annular nature and the rarity of hurricanes in the Azores--only about one per decade, on average--Gaston could pack a punch should it pass over or near any of the widely scattered Azores islands. This year’s first Atlantic storm, Hurricane Alex, struck the island of Terceira in the central Azores on January 15 as a bizarrely out-of-season tropical storm in January.

92L off the coast of Africa embedded in dry air
A large tropical wave with plenty of spin that emerged form the coast of Africa on Monday was designated Invest 92L by NHC, but they are no longer issuing their suite of model forecasts for the system, due to the system’s lack of potential for development. The wave was just west of the Cabo Verde Islands on Wednesday, and was embedded in a major area of dust and dry air from the Sahara Desert. This dry air will greatly interfere with development over the coming days as 92L heads west at 15 - 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic. The latest 0Z Wednesday runs of our three top models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis--the GFS, European and UKMET models--did not show any development of the system over the next five days. A strong and persistent ridge of high pressure should keep 92L on a fairly straightforward west to west-northwest path, and the storm will likely move through or just north of the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this disturbance 2-day and 5-day development odds of 0% and 40%, respectively.

We’ll be back with a new post late Wednesday afternoon.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters


Figure 8. Surface winds around Gaston late Tuesday, August 30, 2016, as estimated by the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) aboard the European MetOp satellite. Image credit: NESDIS/STAR, via Grant Wise, @wise_wx.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 961. washingtonian115:

Ouch :(

Just what I need on the Jersey Shore on my last business weekend of the summer. SMH!
Quoting 988. Camerooski:

CODE ORANGE: I REPEAT CODE ORANGE


Yep, it is strengthening.
Quoting 937. IKE:


Interesting the watches and warnings go to Destin, but nothing for FWB...lol.

I checked and still the same. I mean, Apalachicola is well within the cone and under tropical storm warnings but if you click on their Wunderground weather page it shows no severe weather alerts/advisories/warnings for the area. It is the same for any city I look at.
Thanks for posting all the satellite images and loops. We all appreciate it!
Some of the best rotation I've seen with this system right now. Has been a lot of increased on and off convection through its life but not been able to rotate. We shall see

Quoting 927. Patrap:


1006. IDTH
GFS looks familiar

With 9&1/2 inches of rain since saturday night and 5 falling today, we in western charlotte county Fl are saturated and flooding is a major concern.
relative humidity is rising here in mobile so i imagine it is like that from here to tallahassee to the bayous south of noorlanz.

it is a strange humidity because it feels like the high pressure hot dry air in a way but you can sense the addition of humidity, making it feel a little like both a hot dry high pressure zone over us but with added humidity from the gulf.  expect humidity to gradually rise for days regardless of the high pressure due to feeder bands from hermine.
Quoting 996. Silvershad:

Last 2 frames look like an eastward movement...thoughts?




wait until noon tomorrow
1010. CW7859
Quoting 976. odinslightning:


cutbacks in the military have been severe, especially in the past 4 years.  some air force fighters have to be fixed with scrap parts they get from older models and discarded planes of the same make and type.  the hh's need more money than they are getting, the entire military does.  i feel bad for them over in biloxi.



I know this is getting off topic but it bothers me the countless trillions of dollars we, the tax payers are spending to fight wars in foreign countries when that money could be better spent at home. Rebuilding our military, infrastructure, rebuilding the roads bridges and highways, fixing the healthcare system, etc...

The countries we help protect, should be footing the bill. Europe and the other Nato allies come running to us for help, they need to be opening up that check book!

Now enough of that, back to our regularly scheduled weather blogging :)
Quoting 963. mamothmiss:

Hey Keeper? do i get the gold medal for predicting td9 on monday and yesterday would keep shifting further west every update until it got close to the fl/al border ?? you read my posts for 2 days


Mammoth....last I checked the storm is even with the tip of FLA. How can you claim the prize when the contest has just started. Too many people claiming to have predicted this right. Just watch the posts from the Vets (Pat, Gro, Wx, Ike...etc..) Stop throwing darts and claiming bullseye before they are thrown!! Clogs up the blog man.
Not sure if noted but the recon is showing flight-level winds up to 52 knots in Hermine, which translates well with 45-50mph at the surface.
Looks like the (one of them) got sucked back SE into more convection and main COC is 24.8N and has gone back a degree east to 87.0 W

Quoting 1002. Bucsboltsfan:



Yep, it is strengthening.



It took awhile, but Hermine is a frustrating and interesting storm.

1015. IDTH
Quoting 981. MeteorologistTV:

On Weather Underground show they have Beer taps.Do they drink beer on the show?.If not they should.


I believe they said it is root beer on tap on one of their shows..
Looks as if the MLC is north of the LLC to me. Thoughts anyone?
Quoting 983. Bucsboltsfan:

Strong band lining up to slam the west coast.



Been watching its motion all day and it seems to be having a easterly component. A relocation to the south might change it projectory.
Vortex message says 24.75N 87.3W with a 1002 mb pressure. That's S/SE of the first two locations. Under deep convective burst.
Does anyone else think that we are looking at least a 60MPH Tropical storm with the way it is organizing quickly?
Quoting 964. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Hermine's convective organization is miles better than days prior. The mid- and low-level circulations are still in the process of aligning, and the surface low still seems elongated, but we should begin to see more intensification overnight.




west side still looks pretty weak
Quoting 996. Silvershad:

Last 2 frames look like an eastward movement...thoughts?




Noticed the same thing and posted it after you....went back east to 87.0W and is shy of 25N again...as with 99L, it is wait and see for a longer term track.
Quoting 1011. floridabuckeyes:



Mammoth....last I checked the storm is even with the tip of FLA. How can you claim the prize when the contest has just started. Too many people claiming to have predicted this right. Just watch the posts from the Vets (Pat, Gro, Wx, Ike...etc..) Stop throwing darts and claiming bullseye before they are thrown!! Clogs up the blog man.
i said on sun, mon, and yesterday when they had it hitting tampa that it would keep shifting every upday until it hits fl/al border and all the vets on sun, mon, and yesterday said i was nuts... go back and read my posts from sunday until today .... kepper also read them
Quoting 1018. Ricki13th:


Been watching its motion all day and it seems to be having a easterly component. A relocation to the south might change it projectory.


It is heading back to Cuba?
NAM being the NAM

1027. CW7859
Quoting 1003. mamothmiss:

the nhc just emailed me an application for employment.... i guess they like my forcasting and thinking


enough already sheesh.....ever heard of the blind squirrel? If you want to be taken seriously, quit trying so hard to be annoying. I've lost count of how many posts you made in the last 2 hours tooting your own horn.
Quoting 1016. wxsample:



I believe they said it is root beer on tap on one of their shows..


They're gonna need something stronger if they want to reflect the spirit of this blog.
Quoting 1003. mamothmiss:

the nhc just emailed me an application for employment.... i guess they like my forcasting and thinking

You got one too?
Quoting 1001. popartpete:

Just what I need on the Jersey Shore on my last business weekend of the summer. SMH!


i have bbq things to attend to
Quoting 1012. CybrTeddy:

Not sure if noted but the recon is showing flight-level winds up to 52 knots in Hermine, which translates well with 45-50mph at the surface.


Dropsonde shows they did not mix well down to the surface

1005mb (Surface) 185° (from the S) 33 knots (38 mph)
998mb 185° (from the S) 39 knots (45 mph)
964mb 195° (from the SSW) 44 knots (51 mph)
888mb 195° (from the SSW) 50 knots (58 mph)
852mb 200° (from the SSW) 48 knots (55 mph)
840mb 200° (from the SSW) 49 knots (56 mph)
52kt flight wind, up 5kt from 47kts as the highest flight wind from the previous pass. Tonight will be interesting...
Quoting 1018. Ricki13th:


Been watching its motion all day and it seems to be having a easterly component. A relocation to the south might change it projectory.


I think Hermine will pass east of Apalachicola. not over it or to the west. Even 50 miles or more to the east of Apalachicola. But that's just my opinion.
Quoting 1020. Mark3453:

Does anyone else think that we are looking at least a 60MPH Tropical storm with the way it is organizing quickly?

My gut still tells me it hits cat 1 right before landfall. It's increasing in strength during Dmin so tonight we could see a big jump especially if it continues to move slowly.
Quoting 1018. Ricki13th:


Been watching its motion all day and it seems to be having a easterly component. A relocation to the south might change it projectory.

If it keeps up it makes me worry more about a storm surge into Tampa it Hermine strengthens more than forecast.........STAY TUNED AND INFORMED!
Quoting 994. ecflweatherfan:



My gut is that Hermine will follow the moisture trail set before her, and end up with landfall farther east that what the NHC projects.
Quoting 994. ecflweatherfan:



My gut is that Hermine will follow the moisture trail set before her, and end up with landfall farther east that what the NHC projects.


With weak, disorganized storms in the Gulf. East is the Beast.
Interesting that the heaviest rain fall totals switch to the W side of the storm once it moves inland. Guess this is due to the interaction with the front?

Quoting 1020. Mark3453:

Does anyone else think that we are looking at least a 60MPH Tropical storm with the way it is organizing quickly?


Yes to the first, but no to the second, especially the quickly part. Still trying to find its way to an organized core, and my hunch is that it won't really get there until it feels the tug to the NE which will help it tighten and wrap up as it starts to accelerate.
1039. Tcwx2
I'd say you brag enough.
Quoting 1003. mamothmiss:

the nhc just emailed me an application for employment.... i guess they like my forcasting and thinking

Quoting 997. FunnelVortex:



Yesterday some suggested that Hermine (then TD9) would undergo RI.
They were laughed at.

Now we are all eating crow.
lets see if i eat this crow by tomorrow.  llc is aligning with mlc and ulc below 25n.  forward progress is therefore in effect halted as this occurs.  llc will not have to be overly strong to build energy and convection in the mlc and ulc, it has done fine on its own.  if the storm can stand up vertically on all levels due to the performance of the mlc so far this will easily enter ri/rd tonight.  it is now 5:22 pm.  it isnt moving forward.  dmax is approaching.  the sun will begin to set in approx 30-45 min for hermine.


tonight will be fun to watch, but could be scary as well.
Quoting 1018. Ricki13th:


Been watching its motion all day and it seems to be having a easterly component. A relocation to the south might change it projectory.


Last Vortex message showed it at 24.75N, 87.3W. Long term over the past 6 hours of frames, looks as if it's headed generally NE and along the moisture axis. I still think this is gonna be a Big Bend issue.
Quoting 1024. lurkNoMore:



It is heading back to Cuba?


Somebody alert WunderKidCayman. This has Northwest Caribbean written allll over it.

Quoting 1025. BaltimoreBrian:

NAM being the NAM


nam was war back in the 60's, and that nam wants war now.  that is a ft walton beach solution.
1044. Patrap




NOAA3 Mission #10 into CYCLONE
Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: In Storm

As of 22:05 UTC Aug 31, 2016:
Aircraft Position: 24.80°N 86.67°W
Bearing: 333° at 264 kt
Altitude: 1560 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 44 kt at 195°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1004.6 mb








1045. JLPR2
It does seem the LLC reformed under the MLC and the broad and weaker circulation closed off earlier is the remnants of the LLC we were following yesterday.

Quoting 1039. Tcwx2:

I'd say you brag enough.
Not bragging, trolling and lying.
99L still sucking in all the dry air that has been over the Northern Gulf for weeks......
Hermine is looking better and better
Quoting 1004. opal92nwf:


I checked and still the same. I mean, Apalachicola is well within the cone and under tropical storm warnings but if you click on their Wunderground weather page it shows no severe weather alerts/advisories/warnings for the area. It is the same for any city I look at.
you may need to scroll down the page a bit.. our warning banner sits on top of the weekly forecast which on my screen is not above the fold.
1050. USCGLT
Quoting 1000. PensacolaDoug:

They gotta cut 'em off somewhere!
Hey Doug you got wumail
Quoting 994. ecflweatherfan:



My gut is that Hermine will follow the moisture trail set before her, and end up with landfall farther east that what the NHC projects.

But the moisture trail is slowly inching up toward the the NW. It is true the moisture trail can be a guide though.
1052. IDTH
Uhm.......

Quoting 1043. odinslightning:


nam was war back in the 60's, and that nam wants war now.  that is a ft walton beach solution.

That's well east of Ft Walton.
Quoting 1021. lurkNoMore:



west side still looks pretty weak


agree....has been it's whole life. That is if it has ever existed?
1055. Grothar
Quoting 1011. floridabuckeyes:



Mammoth....last I checked the storm is even with the tip of FLA. How can you claim the prize when the contest has just started. Too many people claiming to have predicted this right. Just watch the posts from the Vets (Pat, Gro, Wx, Ike...etc..) Stop throwing darts and claiming bullseye before they are thrown!! Clogs up the blog man.


Hey, bucks! I nailed this one so good, I'm changing my name to Carpenter. :):)
1056. Michfan
Quoting 1040. odinslightning:


lets see if i eat this crow by tomorrow.  llc is aligning with mlc and ulc below 25n.  forward progress is therefore in effect halted as this occurs.  llc will not have to be overly strong to build energy and convection in the mlc and ulc, it has done fine on its own.  if the storm can stand up vertically on all levels due to the performance of the mlc so far this will easily enter ri/rd tonight.  it is now 5:22 pm.  it isnt moving forward.  dmax is approaching.  the sun will begin to set in approx 30-45 min for hermine.


tonight will be fun to watch, but could be scary as well.



Agreed and i swear this storm is going to go much further east than they have it forecast. That is just how i see it personally with the movement of the upper clouds and what i see with the steering products. I highly anticipate the 00Z models tonight. Again just my opinion but this will be a fun watch tonight.
Quoting 1045. JLPR2:

It does seem the LLC reformed under the MLC and the broad and weaker circulation closed off earlier is the remnants of the LLC we were following yesterday.




I'm not understanding the NNE movement at 7mph based on recon.
Quoting 998. mamothmiss:




A prediction (Latin præ-, "before," and dicere, "to say"), or forecast, is a statement about an uncertain event. It is often, but not always, based upon experience

their is no prize friend storm prediction is just that prediction and that's all I got too say about that
HWRF is off to an iffy start. It had a better center initialization than the last run, but then immediately moved it due west in the first 3 hours.
Quoting 1022. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Noticed the same thing and posted it after you....went back east to 87.0W and is shy of 25N again...as with 99L, it is wait and see for a longer term track.


Looks like a trick of the convection, IMO. Hermine is right on track.
Quoting 1035. HurricaneHunterJoe:


If it keeps up it makes me worry more about a storm surge into Tampa it Hermine strengthens more than forecast.........STAY TUNED AND INFORMED!


how does one stay tuned on the interwebz?
Quoting 1040. odinslightning:


lets see if i eat this crow by tomorrow.  llc is aligning with mlc and ulc below 25n.  forward progress is therefore in effect halted as this occurs.  llc will not have to be overly strong to build energy and convection in the mlc and ulc, it has done fine on its own.  if the storm can stand up vertically on all levels due to the performance of the mlc so far this will easily enter ri/rd tonight.  it is now 5:22 pm.  it isnt moving forward.  dmax is approaching.  the sun will begin to set in approx 30-45 min for hermine.


tonight will be fun to watch, but could be scary as well.


DMax is in the morning... DMin is approaching...
Quoting 1042. SavannahStorm:



Somebody alert WunderKidCayman. This has Northwest Caribbean written allll over it.
wouldn't that be somem
Quoting 1054. floridabuckeyes:



agree....has been it's whole life. That is if it has ever existed?


exactly
Quoting 1011. floridabuckeyes:



Mammoth....last I checked the storm is even with the tip of FLA. How can you claim the prize when the contest has just started. Too many people claiming to have predicted this right. Just watch the posts from the Vets (Pat, Gro, Wx, Ike...etc..) Stop throwing darts and claiming bullseye before they are thrown!! Clogs up the blog man.

You are just feeding the beast (troll) when you quote it......
Quoting 1055. Grothar:



Hey, bucks! I nailed this one so good, I'm changing my name to Carpenter. :):)


Hey Gro, is the Euro showing a stronger system next run? Your comments seem to allude to it. Or is it top secret info? :)
1067. CW7859
Quoting 1026. Mikla:


I'm looking at that line of storms streaming up from central Cuba, if it holds together it might make for some interesting weather for me tonight. Not sure if that second band off the west coast makes it this far east, will wait and see.
Bay County Florida just closed schools here tomorrow and Friday.
waterspouts reported by radar offshore of tampa bay area - extremely heavy weather heading towards the bay area in next 20 minutes
Dropsonde at 25N 87.1W 1002 mb pressure, ESE wind at 7kts. Folks, I think the center has ducked SE of where the NHC spotted it at the 5pm advisory.
That's a nasty squall line setting up from north to south along the entire west coast of Florida. Also, you can see the change in forecast path to the west.
What happened to recon? Just disappeared.
1073. Patrap
1074. THL3
Quoting 1023. mamothmiss:

i said on sun, mon, and yesterday when they had it hitting tampa that it would keep shifting every upday until it hits fl/al border and all the vets on sun, mon, and yesterday said i was nuts... go back and read my posts from sunday until today .... kepper also read them


School must be out , weather related ??
1075. JLPR2
Quoting 1057. Bucsboltsfan:



I'm not understanding the NNE movement at 7mph based on recon.


That is a head scratcher.
1076. mfcmom
Quoting 982. AguaVaporLoop:


Just to clear it up - it wasn't the "Republicans" affecting this issue so much (as stated earlier), you can thank Mr. Obama for the last 8 years.

Now, back to the Gulf, PLEASE.
Off topic. Congress controls the purse, not the President (D or R). This needs to stay on the storm please. Thank you.
1077. hullwx
Quoting 1062. AtlanticP:


DMax is in the morning... DMin is approaching...


Other way 'round. Max from now until morning, then Min until the following evening.
Quoting 1069. westFLtropics:

waterspouts reported by radar offshore of tampa bay area - extremely heavy weather heading towards the bay area in next 20 minutes


Very nasty line heading for the west coast. Strap your boots on.
SW Florida in for a rough night, possibly SE Florida too, we'll see how far the band's penetrate.
Where the plane go?
Quoting 1049. JNFlori30A:

you may need to scroll down the page a bit.. our warning banner sits on top of the weekly forecast which on my screen is not above the fold.

You mean the one that says "Tropical storm conditions possible"? If that's what you're seeing, that is not an official advisory, just something Wunderground does on its own. It used to have all the official watches/warnings on the very top.
1002 mb below 25n, close to 24.5 to 24.75 n.

it is going to ri during dmax.

the llc is aligning
Satellite has improved dramatically in the past 6 hours. Recon finding stronger winds as they survey the storm. Seems to be finally ramping, wouldn't be surprised if it becomes a hurricane tomorrow morning.
I thought the same it is hidden under the flags blending in.

Quoting 1072. Bucsboltsfan:

What happened to recon? Just disappeared.
1085. nash36
Dr. Rappaport just said they're fairly confident in the track at this point. Could shift a tad east, or a tad west, but the cone is pretty solid.

It's the "how strong" that they're not confident in, yet.
Quoting 981. MeteorologistTV:

On Weather Underground show they have Beer taps.Do they drink beer on the show?.If not they should.


I've never thought anyone indulged, except Jim Cantore when he's on the road. His thunder snow performance is legendary, but then again, perhaps he was just hypo-manic, given the unusual situation and circumstances. lol
1087. Patrap
Quoting 1080. washingaway:

Where the plane go?



It stopped transmitting for a bit. It is back up near 26.3N 88.5W.
Quoting 1077. hullwx:



Other way 'round. Max from now until morning, then Min until the following evening.


I meant DMax ends in the morning, but now we are approaching DMin. Thought the previous post was saying we were approaching DMax now.
1090. nash36
Quoting 1083. Ricki13th:

Satellite has improved dramatically in the past 6 hours. Recon finding stronger winds as they survey the storm. Seems to be finally ramping, wouldn't be surprised if it becomes a hurricane tomorrow morning.


Very elongated. Will be tough to strengthen into a hurricane until it can straighten out.
Data certainly looks like that the case. That would shift the cone right back to the 11am cone or slightly farther. Levi also pointed the center reforming farther south.


Quoting 1070. ecflweatherfan:

Dropsonde at 25N 87.1W 1002 mb pressure, ESE wind at 7kts. Folks, I think the center has ducked SE of where the NHC spotted it at the 5pm advisory.
Quoting 1083. Ricki13th:

Satellite has improved dramatically in the past 6 hours. Recon finding stronger winds as they survey the storm. Seems to be finally ramping, wouldn't be surprised if it becomes a hurricane tomorrow morning.


could b e come a hurricane over night we could easy see a strong cat 2 hurricane from this if it RI over night
Quoting 1072. Bucsboltsfan:

What happened to recon? Just disappeared.


budget cuts cut into the feedback

Quoting 1070. ecflweatherfan:

Dropsonde at 25N 87.1W 1002 mb pressure, ESE wind at 7kts. Folks, I think the center has ducked SE of where the NHC spotted it at the 5pm advisory.
yeah like i said llc will align under mlc and ulc convection outbreaks.  this will delay forward movement.  dmax is about to begin and the llc is close to alignment if not already aligned.  the naked llc swirl is just another spin it will throw out.  it may very well rd/ri during dmax tonight, way quicker than last night.  plus it isnt going to move very fast.  this realignment is going to buy hours and hours of additional time to stack out at sea before this makes a conus landfall. maybe the euro was picking up on this days ago. we shall see.  not saying a cat 3, just that a strong cat 1 to weak cat 2 is very possible now and a cat 3 isn't completely impossible. ri in this region with this hot of water that deep can be very quick if other variables line up. 
Quoting 1080. washingaway:

Where the plane go?



26.2 88.5
Quoting 1032. Envoirment:

52kt flight wind, up 5kt from 47kts as the highest flight wind from the previous pass. Tonight will be interesting...


99L has been interesting or for some frustrating for it's entire lifespan IMO
1097. Patrap
NOAA3 Mission #10 into CYCLONE
Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: In Storm

As of 22:35 UTC Aug 31, 2016:
Aircraft Position: 26.00°N 88.28°W
Bearing: 315° at 161 kt
Altitude: 1555 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 16 kt at 41°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1004.5 mb

Quoting 1083. Ricki13th:

Satellite has improved dramatically in the past 6 hours. Recon finding stronger winds as they survey the storm. Seems to be finally ramping, wouldn't be surprised if it becomes a hurricane tomorrow morning.


i wouldnt be surprised if it isnt.
Quoting 1068. Kristina40:

Bay County Florida just closed schools here tomorrow and Friday.
Just checked (since you're right next door to us and the district website says they are open tomorrow... you may want to check it out.
Quoting 1087. Patrap:




Almost looks like LA a couple weeks back.......hope they get some breaks in that rainfall. Anyone know how much rain the last 48 hours for Tampa Metro?
1101. Patrap
1102. CW7859
Quoting 1062. AtlanticP:


DMax is in the morning... DMin is approaching...


I do believe HE had it right...DMAX comes at night.

Link


Link
I believe in the cone what I don't believe in is the center line. The center per recon appears to have shifted South and east meaning so would the cone.

Quoting 1085. nash36:

Dr. Rappaport just said they're fairly confident in the track at this point. Could shift a tad east, or a tad west, but the cone is pretty solid.

It's the "how strong" that they're not confident in, yet.
Arf Arf!

Quoting 1091. SayWhatNHC33:

Data certainly looks like that the case. That would shift the cone right back to the 11am cone or slightly farther. Levi also pointed the center reforming farther south.





And if you hear a loud "boom" here shortly, it will be the sound of the computer models simultaneously self-destructing.
Quoting 1055. Grothar:



Hey, bucks! I nailed this one so good, I'm changing my name to Carpenter. :):)


Gro....I respect your posts as much as anyone on this blog. Just sayin'....don't spike the ball on the 5 yard line Bro. Yogi said it best....it ain't over till it's over. Keep doin' what you do, it keeps us going!!!
Quoting 1086. OracleDeAtlantis:



I've never thought anyone indulged, except Jim Cantore when he's on the road. His thunder snow performance is legendary, but then again, perhaps he was just hypo-manic, given the unusual situation and circumstances. lol



Thundersnow!


Gotta post this again. It's infectious.
Quoting 1023. mamothmiss:

i said on sun, mon, and yesterday when they had it hitting tampa that it would keep shifting every upday until it hits fl/al border and all the vets on sun, mon, and yesterday said i was nuts... go back and read my posts from sunday until today .... kepper also read them


I did as you asked, went back and read you posts. Is this the "prediction" you are jumping up and down about getting a pat on the back for?

Quoting 1076. mamothmiss:

just my opinion but i thiink the way things have been here in central florida the past decade td9 will go north near alabama or panhandle... i think luck is still on our side


Wow, that's some strong tone! And I'll be honest, I don't recall any "they" having it hit Tampa at any time, for your "prediction" to be accurate. Has the models and now the cone shifted further away from Tampa and more toward the panhandle? Sure have. But since Hermine is still very much in the GoM, none of the forecasts have verified, including yours (if you insist on call it that).

Oh, and "luck is still on our side"? Have you seen the rain that has come and will be coming to the Tampa/central Fl area? Some kind of luck there, I'll think I'll pass.
1109. CW7859
Quoting 1089. AtlanticP:



I meant DMax ends in the morning, but now we are approaching DMin. Thought the previous post was saying we were approaching DMax now.


We are coming to the END of dmin now, starting dmax.

From my understand of how it works is, as it cools off in the evening the dewpoint and humidity rise with the cooling of the ocean surface. That in turn leads to better conditions for increased convection in the overnight hours.
7:15 c.s.t. sunset.
hermine is almost directly underneath mobile/pensacola meaning she will have the same sunset times as i do.  civil twilight 7:40; nautical twilight 8:09.

daytime temps have already peaked.  cool down is occurring.
we are entering dmax now. get your soft drinks poured and popcorn popped, she is gonna put on a show ladies and gentlemen!

the small puffy clouds in the sky here in mobile are moving slightly south, than north, then east, then west.  they don't know what direction to move, but they seem to want to move in some direction.  breezes are common right now, even this far north.
1111. Michfan
Quoting 1102. CW7859:



I do believe HE had it right...DMAX comes at night.

Link


Link


DMAX is right before Sunrise and DMIN is right before Sunset.


Scenes like this are common in Pinellas County including my parents neighborhood in the Tampa Bay area, this is near Largo, where some reports of 10-12 inches have occurred near the coast.

Quoting 1100. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Almost looks like LA a couple weeks back.......hope they get some breaks in that rainfall. Anyone know how much rain the last 48 hours for Tampa Metro?


Tampa has had around 5 inches, but the roads are impassable in spots. Here in bradenton half of the major thoroughfares are shut down due to flooding. US 41 is a lake as is most side streets.
Quoting 1065. avthunder:


You are just feeding the beast (troll) when you quote it......



Good point....he has a lot of experience on this blog :)
1115. Patrap
Quoting 1100. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Almost looks like LA a couple weeks back.......hope they get some breaks in that rainfall. Anyone know how much rain the last 48 hours for Tampa Metro?



Here it is,


What's your Visa number?





Quoting 1090. nash36:



Very elongated. Will be tough to strengthen into a hurricane until it can straighten out.

System is still broad but it's vertically align which means air is rushing into the low level center and is funneling up and being allowed to breathe directly from the center. So it will continue to tighten up and take incremental increase in strength as it improve its lower level. But it won't have competition for convection from a misplaced mid level circulation.
A. Time of Center Fix: 31st day of the month at 22:11:47Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°57'N 87°05'W (24.95N 87.0833W)

Latest I have seen on Google Earth
1118. hullwx
Quoting 1102. CW7859:



I do believe HE had it right...DMAX comes at night.

Link


Link


DMIN not approaching now was my point.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1120. 62901IL


Gaston is now only 80% Gastonic.
1121. Grothar
Models keep hinting at a possible New England landfall. Anyone who thinks Sandy was just a fluke, it can happen. There is supposed to be a very strong high in place which may even stall the system for a few days off the coast. Whether it eventually moves it back west remains to be seen.

Quoting 1109. CW7859:



We are coming to the END of dmin now, starting dmax.

From my understand of how it works is, as it cools off in the evening the dewpoint and humidity rise with the cooling of the ocean surface. That in turn leads to better conditions for increased convection in the overnight hours.

Yes, I already stated what I thought he meant in a previous post (1089)... Considering we are still 1-2 hours from DMin I thought he was saying we were approaching Dmax now...
New Vortex message center fix time 22:11Z (6:11pm ET)... 24.95N 87.0833W SFMR winds of 58kt (66.7mph) and pressure 1002mb!
1124. Patrap
Just a note,this is not the same atmosphere from a decade ago.


This is Earth Atmo 2.0


With more Water Vapor per square meter.


It matters,


Greatly.

Quoting 1087. Patrap:






Pat....that grapic shows that you don't need to get a "hit" to get the worst of the storm. I would venture to say that places like Tampa, Homasassa, and Gainesville will get much worse than Tally and places just west of "the line".
Quoting 1100. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Almost looks like LA a couple weeks back.......hope they get some breaks in that rainfall. Anyone know how much rain the last 48 hours for Tampa Metro?


Tampa airport has had around 4-5 inches from this so far, but convection coming from water tends to weaken as it moves inland, areas closer to the coast across the bay have seen a maximum of 10-12 so far.
The latest fix is 25w 87n
Quoting 1108. HighOnHurricanes:



I did as you asked, went back and read you posts. Is this the "prediction" you are jumping up and down about getting a pat on the back for?



Wow, that's some strong tone! And I'll be honest, I don't recall any "they" having it hit Tampa at any time, for your "prediction" to be accurate. Has the models and now the cone shifted further away from Tampa and more toward the panhandle? Sure have. But since Hermine is still very much in the GoM, none of the forecasts have verified, including yours (if you insist on call it that).

Oh, and "luck is still on our side"? Have you seen the rain that has come and will be coming to the Tampa/central Fl area? Some kind of luck there, I'll think I'll pass.


As someone who lives in the Tampa/St Pete area, I could give a rats #@%#$% about his stupid prediction because of the real-life impacts that this storm is having here. He is a troll and he cares more about his damn prediction than he does about the impacts this storm his having. Stick him on ignore as I did yesterday because I do not want to see another one of his self-absorbed posts again!
1129. Patrap
Quoting 1127. Bucsboltsfan:

The latest fix is 25w 87n


That would actually b,

25N 87W


It matters,


Greatly

🎑
Quoting 1127. Bucsboltsfan:

The latest fix is 25w 87n

Cone shift coming. Right in the pocket of the big bend. Taylor county IMO

Quoting 1123. ecflweatherfan:

New Vortex message center fix time 22:11Z (6:11pm ET)... 24.95N 87.0833W SFMR winds of 58kt (66.7mph) and pressure 1002mb!
she will probably stand up below 25n tonight.  ri is in the cards for tonight's tarot show.

TG -- HotHoL
1133. Patrap
Quoting 1125. floridabuckeyes:





Pat....that grapic shows that you don't need to get a "hit" to get the worst of the storm. I would venture to say that places like Tampa, Homasassa, and Gainesville will get much worse than Tally and places just west of "the line".



That time has passed indeed.


The storm effects are now well underway.




this is all most a hurricane


Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 31st day of the month at 22:41Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Tropical Depression: Nine (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 10
Observation Number: 32
A. Time of Center Fix: 31st day of the month at 22:11:47Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°57'N 87°05'W (24.95N 87.0833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 334 statute miles (537 km) to the W (275°) from Key West, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,444m (4,738ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 58kts (~ 66.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the E (96°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 200° at 52kts (From the SSW at ~ 59.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 44 nautical miles (51 statute miles) to the ESE (123°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1002mb (29.59 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,570m (5,151ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,535m (5,036ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 52kts (~ 59.8mph) which was observed 44 nautical miles (51 statute miles) to the ESE (123°) from the flight level center at 22:00:40Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 120° at 7kts (From the ESE at 8mph)



ch of seeing a strong cat 2 be for land fall is getting higher and higher
1135. Patrap
From 1956Z

IR/WV/Microwave RGB (IR [R], WV [G], MI89 [B])

Quoting 991. EricSFL:


Tampa Bay elevation map. From USGS.
Even though most of the metropolitan area sits near sea level, there are some higher areas - especially when compared to Miami-Dade County where the highest natural point is just below 28 feet a.s.l..


The SLOSH maps of the area, even for a Cat 1, paint a very grim picture. The Florida Office of Insurance Regulation did a stress test of the major Florida wind insurers in 2015 and modeled 3 storms. One of those storms was a Cat 3 which passes north of St. Pete thru Tarpon Springs. The "insured" losses were estimated at $6 Billion. The person who developed the AIR models which were used for the test estimated it even higher, at $10 Billion. The assumption was Tampa Bay would receive 75 MPH winds. Storm surge losses are typically not "insured" losses payable by a wind carrier. They are payable through FEMA. The areas under water on the Cat 1 SLOSH map contain the most expensive properties in St. Petersburg including Tierra Verde, all of the beach front and intracoastal properties, Coquina Key & Northeast St. Pete, not to mention areas of Tampa such as Bayshore Boulevard and South Tampa. A direct hit (of even a Cat 1) North of the Skyway would be a horrendous event from a human perspective and an economic perspective.
Quoting 1130. wunderkidwx:


Cone shift coming. Right in the pocket of the big bend. Taylor county IMO


Or worse possibly further south.......but 99L will do what 99L wants as per his whole lifespan........Hurry up and wait.....countdown is coming.......I think.....LOL
Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 58kts (~ 66.7mph) Is this for real?
Quoting 1137. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Or worse possibly further south.......but 99L will do what 99L wants as per his whole lifespan........Hurry up and wait.....countdown is coming.......I think.....LOL



can we all please stop calling this 99L when we got .HERMINE all most hurricane the time for jokeing around is done with this storm a lot of every one is NW FL is going too be in big trouble has this storm is getting stronger and stronger this storm could even RI over night
1140. IDTH
This is not the blog you're looking for.
Quoting 1138. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 58kts (~ 66.7mph) Is this for real?


yep its for real

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 31st day of the month at 22:41Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Tropical Depression: Nine (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 10
Observation Number: 32
A. Time of Center Fix: 31st day of the month at 22:11:47Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°57'N 87°05'W (24.95N 87.0833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 334 statute miles (537 km) to the W (275°) from Key West, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,444m (4,738ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 58kts (~ 66.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the E (96°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 200° at 52kts (From the SSW at ~ 59.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 44 nautical miles (51 statute miles) to the ESE (123°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1002mb (29.59 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,570m (5,151ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,535m (5,036ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 52kts (~ 59.8mph) which was observed 44 nautical miles (51 statute miles) to the ESE (123°) from the flight level center at 22:00:40Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 120° at 7kts (From the ESE at 8mph)



so this storm is about 60 too 65 mph winds right now way ahead on what the NHC has forecast
1142. Patrap

Click image for loop

Quoting 1138. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 58kts (~ 66.7mph) Is this for real?


That's one hell of a gust...
1144. Xulonn
.
Quoting 1126. Jedkins01:



Tampa airport has had around 4-5 inches from this so far, but convection coming from water tends to weaken as it moves inland, areas closer to the coast across the bay have seen a maximum of 10-12 so far.



WOW! That is not good! Hopes and prayers go out.
where is every one this blog sould be flying with commits
Quoting 1142. Patrap:


Click image for loop




Outstanding loop Pat!
Quoting 1146. thetwilightzone:

where is every one this blog sould be flying with commits

Waiting for 8PM update. Dont want want to admit that its east of the forecst point
Quoting 1138. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 58kts (~ 66.7mph) Is this for real?


Appears rain contaminated


58 knots
(~ 66.7 mph)

27 mm/hr
(~ 1.06 in/hr)
Quoting 1141. thetwilightzone:



yep its for real

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 31st day of the month at 22:41Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Tropical Depression: Nine (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 10
Observation Number: 32
A. Time of Center Fix: 31st day of the month at 22:11:47Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°57'N 87°05'W (24.95N 87.0833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 334 statute miles (537 km) to the W (275°) from Key West, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,444m (4,738ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 58kts (~ 66.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the E (96°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 200° at 52kts (From the SSW at ~ 59.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 44 nautical miles (51 statute miles) to the ESE (123°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1002mb (29.59 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,570m (5,151ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,535m (5,036ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 52kts (~ 59.8mph) which was observed 44 nautical miles (51 statute miles) to the ESE (123°) from the flight level center at 22:00:40Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 120° at 7kts (From the ESE at 8mph)



so this storm is about 60 too 65 mph winds right now way ahead on what the NHC has forecast

Jesus that thing is intensifying like a MF'er
Maybe that early on HWFI model screaming Cat 5 was right
Quoting 1148. wunderkidwx:


Waiting for 8PM update. Dont want want to admit that its east of the forecst point


there wont be a 8pm update

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
noaa recon this found 1000mb

1000.4 mb
(~ 29.55 inHg
Quoting 1151. thetwilightzone:



there wont be a 8pm update

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

That is 8:00 PM. Im on Eastern time. 7:00 CDT is 8:00 EDT
Quoting 1152. thetwilightzone:

noaa recon this found 1000mb

1000.4 mb
(~ 29.55 inHg

where?
Some more nasty bands coming ashore

NEW BLOG
Quoting 1154. wunderkidwx:


where?



in the storm

Center is getting better defined. Decent Pressure drop as well.
That's kinda angry looking! CDO looking thingee?

Is that RED wind barbs that I see?

First recon exiting, new one taking off from LA...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF307- 1109A-HERMINE.png
Question: how far out do 60 mph winds go being that there is no official eye? And is it sustained winds?