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Hurricane Warning for Hawaii, a Watch for Florida; TD 9 Headed Towards NE U.S.?

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 10:51 PM GMT on August 30, 2016

NHC has issued a Hurricane Watch for the Florida Gulf Coast from the Anclote River to Indian Pass, and a Tropical Storm Watch for the Florida Gulf Coast west of Indian Pass to the Walton/Bay County line. You’d wouldn’t guess from Tropical Depression Nine’s appearance on satellite imagery, though, that the storm could become a hurricane by Thursday. TD 9 struggled with dry air and wind shear all day Tuesday, and a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft on Tuesday afternoon found that top sustained winds had remained near 35 mph, and the central pressure had remained constant at 1004 mb. TD 9 continued to bring heavy rains to western Cuba during the day Tuesday, though; Santa Lucia in Pinar Del Rio province reported a 36-hour rainfall total of 317.4 mm (12.50”) ending at 8 am EDT. Additional heavy rains of 3 - 5” are likely over western Cuba before TD 9 finally pulls away on Wednesday.


Figure 1. MODIS visible satellite image of Tropical Depression Nine in the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday afternoon, August 30, 2016. Image credit: NASA.

Satellite images on Tuesday showed little change to TD 9 during the day, with only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the center of circulation, and a circulation center that was still partially exposed to view—the typical look of a tropical cyclone struggling with wind shear and dry air. Wind shear was a moderate 10 - 15 knots, but water vapor satellite imagery showed plenty of dry air to the storm’s north and west. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) near TD 9’s center remained favorable for development, near 30  - 30.5°C (86 - 87°F).

Track forecast for TD 9: a Florida Gulf Coast landfall, followed by a run up the Southeast coast
The latest 12Z Tuesday (8 am EDT) runs of our top models are a little father to the north with their landfall locations, bringing TD 9 to the Florida Big Bend coast north of Tampa on Thursday afternoon. In their 5 pm EDT Tuesday Wind Probability Forecast, NHC’s highest odds for getting tropical storm force winds of 34+ mph from TD 9 along the Gulf Coast of Florida were 52%, 51%, and 50%, respectively, for Cedar Key, Apalachicola and St. Marks, Florida.

A Labor Day spoiler for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S.?
Once TD 9 crosses over Florida (and potentially southern Georgia) and enters the Atlantic again, the storm will be directly over the axis of the very warm Gulf Stream current. This will make the storm resist weakening, despite the expected presence of high wind shear of 20 knots. In their 5 pm EDT Tuesday Wind Probability Forecast, NHC gave odds of at least 30% for tropical storm-force winds affecting the Southeast U.S. coast from Daytona Beach, Florida northwards to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina—including the entire coasts of Georgia and South Carolina. The official NHC forecast at 5 pm EDT Tuesday had TD 9 headed northeastward out to sea, caught in the steering flow of a trough of low pressure, after clearing the coast of North Carolina on Friday. However, that outcome is in doubt.


Figure 2. Wind forecast for TD 9 made at 12Z (8 am EDT) Tuesday, August 30, 2016. Both the European model (left) and GFS model (right) were predicting that TD 9 would be a tropical storm just off the Northeast U.S. coast over Labor Day weekend.

For over a day, the GFS model has been predicting that the trough pulling TD 9 to the northeast would quickly be replaced by a ridge of high pressure, resulting in a northward turn by TD 9 followed by a stall after passing by North Carolina. This track would threaten the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. coasts on Sunday and Monday with heavy rain and high surf. In their latest 12Z (8 am EDT) Tuesday runs, the European and UKMET models have also jumped on this bandwagon, with the European model showing a very strong ridge building over TD 9 that forces a sharp left turn by the storm, back towards New England, after TD 9 approaches the Canadian maritime provinces. Thus, it looking increasingly possible that TD 9 could bring heavy rain and strong winds—potentially at tropical storm-force—to a large swath of the U.S. East Coast over the busy Labor Day weekend. Even if the storm’s rains and winds don’t do any damage, the lost business from a holiday weekend washout would run into the tens of millions of dollars. The uncertainties are high at this point, though—the diameter of NHC’s cone of uncertainty for their 5-day track forecast is about 550 miles.

Intensity forecast: TD 9 likely to stay below hurricane strength
TD 9’s failure to organize on Tuesday gives support to the thought that the storm will never significantly intensify in the Gulf of Mexico, but the latest 12Z (8 am EDT) Tuesday runs of the GFS and European models show a little more development of TD 9 compared to their previous ones. These latest runs show TD 9 as a tropical storm with 45 - 60 mph winds at the time of landfall on the Florida Gulf Coast on Thursday afternoon. The SHIPS model on Tuesday afternoon predicted moderately favorable conditions for intensification, with wind shear staying a moderate 10 - 15 knots through Thursday morning. SSTs will be a very warm 30 - 30.5°C (86 - 87°F), and mid-level relative humidity was predicted to be a reasonably moist 65%. Our three best intensity models—the HWRF, DSHIPS and LGEM models—were in reasonable agreement with their latest runs available late Tuesday afternoon, with landfall intensities for TD 9 ranging from 55 - 75 mph. NHC is going with a forecast of a 60 mph tropical storm at landfall. The Gulf Coast of Florida is highly vulnerable to large storm surges, due to the extensive stretch of shallow continental shelf waters offshore that extend up to 90 miles from the coast. On Tuesday afternoon, NHC was calling for a maximum storm surge of 2 - 4’ above ground from TD 9 along a 30-mile stretch of the Florida coast to the right of where the center is expected to make landfall. The other hazard from TD 9 is heavy rain: rainfall amounts of 5 - 10” are expected along TD 9’s path across Florida, with 15” possible near the coast where the storm makes landfall.

92L off the coast of Africa embedded in dry air
A large tropical wave with plenty of spin that emerged from the coast of Africa on Monday evening was designated Invest 92L by NHC. The wave was moving through the Cabo Verde Islands on Tuesday and will potentially develop into a tropical depression later in the week. SSTs and wind shear would be favorable for development during the coming five days, but 92L is embedded in a major pulse of dust and dry air from the Sahara that left the coast at the same time, just to the north of 92L. This dry air will greatly interfere with development over the coming days as 92L heads west at 15 - 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic. The latest 12Z Tuesday (8 am EDT) runs of two of our three top models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis—the GFS and UKMET models—developed 92L, but not until five days from now. A strong and persistent ridge of high pressure should keep 92L on a fairly straightforward west to west-northwest path, and the storm will likely move through or just north of the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday. In their 2 pm EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this disturbance 2-day and 5-day development odds of 0% and 40%, respectively.


Figure 3. Enhanced infrared satellite image of Hurricane Madeline as of 2100Z (5:00 pm EDT) Tuesday, August 30, 2016. Hawaii is outlined at far left. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Hurricanes Madeline and Lester barreling toward Hawaii
A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Big Island of Hawaii in advance of Category 3 Hurricane Madeline. A Tropical Storm Watch is also in effect for the islands of Maui County (Maui, Molokai, and Lanai). As of the 5:00 pm EDT advisory from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), Madeline was located about 370 miles east of Hilo, moving due west at 10 mph. Madeline’s top sustained winds were 115 mph, down from their peak of 135 mph on Monday night, and its once-clear eye became obscured by clouds on Tuesday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission on Tuesday afternoon measured top flight-level winds of 100 knots (115 mph), with 115-knot (132-mph) surface winds detected by radiometer. As vertical wind shear increases to the 10-20 knot range, some fairly dry air will be pushed into the storm (mid-level relative humidities around 40-45%). Thus, Madeline’s strength should gradually drop over the next couple of days, despite SSTs warming slightly to 27-28°C. Madeline is expected to make its closest approach to Hawaii as a Category 1 hurricane.

Madeline should angle toward the west-southwest over the next couple of days, which may keep the center just south of the Big Island on Thursday morning. The official CPHC forecast brings Madeline less than 50 miles south of the southern tip of island. This track will put the island in the more dangerous right-hand (north) side of Madeline, slamming moisture-laden air and very strong winds against high mountains. Because of the inherent uncertainty in a 36-hour track forecast, there remains a possibility that Madeline will make landfall as the Big Island’s first hurricane in records going back to 1949.


FIgure 4. Tracking map for Hurricane Madeline as of 5:00 pm EDT (11:00 am HST) Tuesday, August 30.

Potential impacts from Madeline
Madeline’s area of hurricane-force winds is quite small, only about 25 miles in radius, but tropical storm force winds (sustained winds of 39 mph or greater) extend out to 125 miles. Thus, whether or not Madeline makes landfall as a hurricane, we can expect much or most of the Big Island—and perhaps parts of neighboring islands—to experience tropical storm conditions from late Wednesday into early Thursday, with very high winds, torrential rain (up to 15” in localized parts of the Big Island, with up to 4” in Maui County), and the potential for flooding and landslides. On the Big Island, some winds could be strong enough to produce considerable damage to trees, power lines, and roofs. Surf there is expected to reach at least 15 to 25 feet on east-facing shores by Wednesday, with significant damage to roads and coastal properties possible. For more details, refer to the local statements that are compiled on a CPHC website; these will be updated as Madeline approaches.

The steep topography along the shore of the Hawaiian Islands tends to minimize storm surge while maximizing surf height. The highest storm surge on record for Hawaii was produced by Category 4 Hurricane Iniki (1992), which pushed waters 6 feet above normal astronomical tides and produced 30-foot surf. In a blog post on Tuesday afternoon, storm surge expert Hal Needham noted:

“On the Big Island, where Madeline’s impact will be felt the strongest, Hurricane Diana in 1972 generated surf levels that also reached 30 ft along the Puna coast, while storm surge levels at Hilo ranged from 4 to 5 ft (Central Pacific Hurricane Center 1972). Although this may not sound impressive, modest storm surges combined with tremendous wave heights can still be destructive, because waves are riding on top of the storm surge, enabling them to push a destructive force of water inland, well beyond the storm surge water limit. Diana’s combined storm surge and high surf swept four homes from their foundations and eroded 200 feet of a private road (Central Pacific Hurricane Center 1972).” He added: “The biggest concern for coastal flood potential will be on the southeastern shores of the Big Island, near the villages Naalehu and Pahala, where hurricane-force winds may wrap around the ‘back side’ of Madeline after its closest approach. Such winds come on strong from the opposite direction than they were previously blowing, quickly changing a low-water event into a sudden storm surge event, which can be surprisingly destructive.”


Figure 5. Satellite image of Hurricanes Madeline (left) and Lester (right) as of 2100Z (5:00 pm EDT) Tuesday, August 30, 2016. Image credit: NASA/MSFC Earth Science Office.

Next up for the weekend: Hurricane Lester
Hawaii has another storm to keep an eye on: Hurricane Lester. Located about 1280 miles east of Hilo and about 900 miles east of Madeline, Lester had top sustained winds of 120 mph as of the 5:00 pm EDT Tuesday advisory from NHC. Very favorable atmospheric conditions and modestly supportive SSTs around 27°C have allowed Lester to maintain its strength. From Thursday into Friday, Lester will be rolling directly over cooler waters churned up by Madeline, which could put a dent in its power. Wind shear is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain very low for at least the next 2-3 days before gradually increasing. The official NHC outlook brings Lester’s sustained winds down to minimal Category 1 strength (65 mph) by Saturday and strong tropical storm strength (70 mph) by Sunday.

Lester’s current westward track is expected to bend to the west-northwest as it approaches Hawaii, which should produce a track over the weekend roughly parallel to the island chain. The official NHC outlook continues to keep Lester 100-200 miles north of the islands on Saturday and Sunday. However, there is an increased note of uncertainty in the latest (12Z Tuesday) model guidance on Lester’s track. The UKMET and the averaged GFS ensemble runs (GEFS) bring Lester across the islands over the weekend, while the Euro’s path runs just north of Oahu and Kauai. Other models keep Lester farther north by various margins. The increased spread among model solutions is a reminder that paths can change by a large amount over a 4- or 5-day period. An upper-level high to the north of Lester will become quite strong later this week, implying that a southward track closer to the islands is certainly plausible. Tropical storm-force winds are predicted to extend outwards 90 miles to the southwest of Lester this weekend, putting most of the island chain at at the edge of getting sustained 40-mph winds should Lester follow the path predicted by CPHC.


Figure 6. Tracking map for Hurricane Lester as of 5:00 pm EDT (11:00 am HST) Tuesday, August 30.

The tracks of both Lester and Madeline may be influenced by the Fujiwhara effect, which causes two hurricanes that get within about 800 miles of each other to rotate around a common point in between, with that motion superimposed upon the primary storm motion. In a case like this, the easterm storm (Lester) would angle northward and the western storm (Madeline) would angle southward.

Wunderblogger Steve Gregory has an excellent update on the tropics in his Tuesday afternoon post, TD 9 Gets Better Organized/TD 8 to Skirt NC Coast.

We’ll be back with a new post late Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson


Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

can someone show the stacking map thingy, I don't think its perfectly aligned but it's pretty damn close.
1502. nash36
Quoting 1492. wunderkidwx:


ou said Cedar Key not long ago. Im so confused.


There is no major hurricane headed for anyone.

Folks need to stop being irresponsible and look at the reality of the situation.
1503. MahFL
Quoting 1473. masiello3:

are they not calling this thing until it is stacked? I mean they've called things which look a crap ton worse than this.


Stacking has nothing to do with calling a storm a storm, even poorly stacked storms can be 60 mph storms.
Quoting 1489. Sfloridacat5:





I counted 5 mistakes in your sentence. Interesting that you get upset by small spelling errors.


LOL.. I give up. The whole sentence was written as a sarcastic joke. sheesh..... All five mistakes were intentional. That was the point of the sentence.
If the NHC still has this thing as a depression I'm gonna start kicking kittens... Seriously this is just frustrating.
1506. Patrap
1507. ChiThom
Quoting 1481. CaneKisser2:



Obviously, you missed the sarcasm. Check out the other two words intentionally misused in my quote.....

Touché. Your first post was a joke? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Quoting 1439. nash36:



Don't forget;

The ECMWF shows most of the strengthening to happen baroclinically, meaning as a result of the strong flow associated with the trough.


I was thinking as I looked at the WV images this morning - it looks almost baroclinic already. Seems to be stalled along a moisture boundary...and if you follow this boundary NE you get to TD8.
Quoting 1497. nash36:

I don't think they will upgrade at 11am. They need to know that there are winds at the surface to support it, and right now, they don't.

A ship reported TS strength winds
Quoting 1489. Sfloridacat5:





I counted 5 mistakes in your sentence. Interesting that you get upset by small spelling errors.


Hence the "over the head" reference on post 1471.......
Quoting 1445. Patrap:




Name one drone that can fly into storm CDO @ 10,000 ft?


You can't cus they can't.


One needs a manned turboprop aircraft...and global hawk ain't it.


Werd'
For what reason would one need a flight at 10K ft when a drone can get surface and wind data flying at lower level than that at which (for the grammarians and spelling critics) the aircraft could safely fly?

I agree with the OP. Drones are the way of the future, and, in the future, drones will be able to do more and more and more...
1512. MahFL
Quoting 1489. Sfloridacat5:





I counted 5 mistakes in your sentence. Interesting that you get upset by small spelling errors.


Using the wrong form of a word is not the same as misspelling a word.
1513. aquak9
@ CaneKisser2 - yes I got the joke, I was joking back, it's all in fun

~~~~~
Quoting 1467. tiggeriffic:



mine are the misuse of the words there, they're and their....too, to and two....not adding an "s" to the word cent when there is more than one penny, and starting a sentence with the word "Me" when another person is in the equation...{Me and Fred are going to the store.}......My 12 year old hates it because I will look at him and say, "Excuse me, what?" until he repeats it correctly lol....


Good job preventing corruption of our grammar. Seriously!

I am bothered by the use of "like" as a conjunction and "crazy" as an adverb as well as the increasing number of sentence fragments and commasplices and tense shifts no longer caught by editors which are themselves now considered useless costs at newspapers and magazines. Their, and there, and to,two,too , and me/I is still handled in elementary or middle school. A concerted effort was made in high elementary and middle school in my time to stamp out those two errors and forty years later my kids were drilled on this too.

But then I also think "parent" and "friend" are nouns. Silly me!
Viking!
Good to see you... Are lawn is so dry it crinkles when we walk on it and we do run the sprinklers!

I'm still watching closely, looks like it has nudged just a little more to the west. You stay safe!!
Quoting 1486. 69Viking:



No kidding, we had been having a pretty wet summer and then bam, the rain just stops and we get a couple weeks of 90 + temps with no rain. Not good in sandy soil environment!
10:00 AM CDT Wed Aug 31
Location: 24.6°N 88.0°W
Moving: Stationary
Min pressure: 1001 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
Quoting 1490. Patrap:

Itsa wu zoo here today.


LoL

🎑


I'm the Kangaroo
yep still a td, kitten kicking ensuing.
Quoting 1490. Patrap:

Itsa wu zoo here today.


LoL

🎑


Can I get a picture of the "drone" that can fly at 10K feet, thru hurricane force winds into the eye of a storm please? Taking into consideration that out of the majority of people on this blog, you are right up there on technology, meteorology, etc...if one would exist, I am sure you would know about it....
Quoting 1505. masiello3:

If the NHC still has this thing as a depression I'm gonna start kicking kittens... Seriously this is just frustrating.


Wait till the HH'ers get in to investigate.
I'm telling you, I think the NHC is working to make the GFS model a reality.
Quoting 1475. StormTrackerScott:

HH'ers should find a strong TS later today. Very rapid development happening right now.

LOL
Quoting 1503. MahFL:



Stacking has nothing to do with calling a storm a storm, even poorly stacked storms can be 60 mph storms.


Stacking is diagnostic of both shear absence and the absence of a temperature gradient. In the presence of a temperature gradient the upper level low tilts into the cold side.. always. An unstacked storm does NOT mean it is poorly organized but does mean it is not a pure tropical cyclone.
I sure hope this thing gets to moving! 2 mph is crawling. My fear is that it misses the trough, and then we have bigger problems on our hands with a system in the GOM with little to no steering....
Quoting 1415. WDEmobmet:

Clearly still not vertically stacked. Not to be the debby downer here, but TD 09 is still decoupled. Convection burst (MLC) that appears to drift south as it collapses you clearly see a new burst of convection (LLC) further north. It may be close to being stacked, but still NOT!




Same 'ole song and dance, my friends.
1526. Patrap
Not named.




Caused 130,000 flooded homes and businesses.


Will add zero ACE to the basin.


Spare us the name game.


It's a as moot as a molded home.

Keep rooting for calamity,and one day....you will get it.
1527. SSL1441
Quoting 1505. masiello3:

If the NHC still has this thing as a depression I'm gonna start kicking kittens... Seriously this is just frustrating.


IT'S STIIIIIIILLL A DEPRESSION! XD.
Quoting 1500. LesBonsTemps:


How would you figuratively write a textbook on grammar?


As in the figure of speech, "She knows so much about grammar, she wrote the textbook on it."
Quoting 1470. bigwes6844:

TD 9 is huger than Gaston now!



Not bad for the TD that couldn't!
Quoting 1511. Barefootontherocks:

For what reason would one need a flight at 10K ft when a drone can get surface and wind data flying at lower level than that at which (for the grammarians and spelling critics) the aircraft could safely fly?

I agree with the OP. Drones are the way of the future, and, in the future, drones will be able to do more and more and more...
what about mechanical issues o never mind just put in the trash bin and unbox another and u are good to go hell why not have 10 at a time go in
Quoting 1507. ChiThom:


Touché. Your first post was a joke? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯


With this handle. I've been around way before the StormW/JFV days...... The profile pic should have clued you in.....
1532. scott39
Hey Ya'll, I'm fixin tooo go over yonder to that they're Walmarts to buy me some batcheries and can vittles while I waits on me some TD 9.
Gaston and Alex are the only storms carrying this otherwise forgettable season.
1534. nash36
Quoting 1518. masiello3:

yep still a td, kitten kicking ensuing.


Told ya.

They aren't going to upgrade, just because the folks on WU insist it should be upgraded. There is a scientific process, and TD9 hasn't hit it yet, and may never actually hit it.
We have ignition, Houston ...

11am still a depression. Looks so much better though. I know it's responsible to wait until a craft is in there to designate it but the suspense is killing me, especially when it still has it for 65mph at landfall. On another note New England has been hashed in more this advisory with a similarly strong post-tropical cyclone for Monday possibly. Also it is "nearly stationary" So maybe could start its thing now. *looks at watch*

img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">
1538. 7544
looks like t9 has stalled at this hour not moving hmmm
1539. Patrap
Quoting 1519. tiggeriffic:



Can I get a picture of the "drone" that can fly at 10K feet, thru hurricane force winds into the eye of a storm please? Taking into consideration that out of the majority of people on this blog, you are right up there on technology, meteorology, etc...if one would exist, I am sure you would know about it....


There is none.


The p 3 from NOAA and the c 130 j are the only turboprops that fly into the CDO at flight level alts.


Quoting 1500. LesBonsTemps:


How would you figuratively write a textbook on grammar?


Mine is still in the figurative stage :-)
Quoting 1455. StormTrackerScott:

WRF model going to major hurricane near Panama City


scott, you may want to take another look. 0600 model shows a track to appalachicola same as most others.
Quoting 1503. MahFL:



Stacking has nothing to do with calling a storm a storm, even poorly stacked storms can be 60 mph storms.


I wouldn't say that. Sure it's not a technical qualification, but show me a developing g storm that began decoupled that made it to a 60 mph TS. There is a differnce between a matured system decoupling, vice a developing system that has been decoupled.
The longer the NHC puts off calling this a TS the shorter amount of reaction time for people
Quoting 1505. masiello3:

If the NHC still has this thing as a depression I'm gonna start kicking kittens... Seriously this is just frustrating.
MeOWWWWWWWWWWWWWW!!!
Quoting 1499. Patrap:




You have no clue,obviously.


Enjoy your day.


http://newatlas.com/hurricane-coyote-drone/41315/

other sources available on your google machine as well.
Hi Tigger,

I have friends who fly drones for the government and military, I think the general public would be surprised at what all can be done with drones and the technology they provide. I've heard some pretty amazing stories....

Quoting 1519. tiggeriffic:



Can I get a picture of the "drone" that can fly at 10K feet, thru hurricane force winds into the eye of a storm please? Taking into consideration that out of the majority of people on this blog, you are right up there on technology, meteorology, etc...if one would exist, I am sure you would know about it....

Quoting 1505. masiello3:

If the NHC still has this thing as a depression I'm gonna start kicking kittens... Seriously this is just frustrating.


Quoting 1530. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

what about mechanical issues o never mind just put in the trash bin and unbox another and u are good to go hell why not have 10 at a time go in
That's the spirit!

Good morning, KOTG.
Quoting 1529. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Not bad for the TD that couldn't!

Gaston only ate 5 dozen eggs, TD9 ate SIX dozen eggs
Quoting 1531. CaneKisser2:



With this handle. I've been around way before the StormW/JFV days...... The profile pic should have clued you in.....
I know who u are u liked chat room days too
My Bailiff (Leon County Sheriff's Office) just advised that they got the call to fill up the patrol cars today; getting ready to go to the 12 hour Bravo shifts on Thursday and Friday if tropical storm conditions arrive in Tallahassee. I suspect that Big Bend schools will probably cancel classes on Friday sometime tomorrow afternoon (Big Yea from the FSU students) if the storm is still headed our way.
1554. 900MB
Mostly a lurker here, but seen and studied many a storm. If there was an over/under on current NHC intensity now and at landfall in FLA, I would be over on both counts. I think this storm stands a decent chance to be Cat 1 status at landfall.

Being a NYer and also having a home out in the Hamptons, will be interesting to see how this looks come Monday.
Quoting 1477. AussieStorm:



The last image gets me thinking of this.....


Hot Tower

that seems 10/10 legit. That picture is clearly made by a hamster or something.
OK. So if the LLC is stronger than the MLC, shouldn't "it" be pulling, not the other way around? Does this question make sense? It seems like the MLC is pulling the LLC, not the other way around? Correct me or explain, because I'm confused.
1557. IDTH
Quoting 1526. Patrap:

Not named.


Caused 130,000 flooded homes and businesses.


Will add zero ACE to the basin.


Spare usdusd the name game.


It's a as moot as a molded home.

Keep rooting for calamity,and one day....you will get it.


Poor Cuba.
1558. SSL1441
Quoting 1532. scott39:

Hey Ya'll, I'm fixin tooo go over yonder to that they're Walmarts to buy me some batcheries and can vittles while I waits on me some TD 9.


Pft. You gone be waitin' a'while!
1559. Mediate
Quoting 1482. DoubleBranchGuy:



At this point I think in its probably more prudent to stop waiting for this to turn into something textbook, and start treating it like a unique weather event with destructive potential. Where I live north of Tampa they are calling for 9+ inches of rain. That's a pretty big deal. There's a ton of energy sitting in the middle of the Gulf and some people somewhere are going to get a little jacked up by it. Stacked, not stacked, named, or not named. The energy still has designs on causing problems.

+1
Quoting 1486. 69Viking:



No kidding, we had been having a pretty wet summer and then bam, the rain just stops and we get a couple weeks of 90 + temps with no rain. Not good in sandy soil environment!

Yeah, much of May, June and first part of July were painfully dry , but after that we have gotten enough good rains. And it was only this past Sunday we got a good couple pop up storms. However, literally the next day, plants in my yard were already wilting... Just need TD 9 to nudge a little more north so it can kick out this annoying dry air.
1561. Patrap


Anyone seen Skyepony?
I thought that we would see more of her as she is a Florida blogger.

Looks like we are back in the heat again here in Houston ...by heat I mean mid 90's ...could be worse though so I'm not complaining.
Quoting 1531. CaneKisser2:



With this handle. I've been around way before the StormW/JFV days...... The profile pic should have clued you in.....


roflmbo....I thought we were not to mention the "Storm" you know what name in here....bwahahaha...
I update our 188 employee workforce here in Central Florida (Ocala) on Storms as I am the emergency response coordinator for the facility. I've had 3 people in 10 minutes stop by for an update, they are getting a bit antsy. What a perplexing system 09 has been! Now it seems to be in "Sit and Spin" mode as if it wants to figure out what it wants to be when and if it grows up! Lol Hopefully the Hurricane Hunters will be able to get out this afternoon.
1565. 900MB
Quoting 1524. cat6band:

I sure hope this thing gets to moving! 2 mph is crawling. My fear is that it misses the trough, and then we have bigger problems on our hands with a system in the GOM with little to no steering....


Conversely, plenty of upwelling.
Quoting 1530. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

what about mechanical issues o never mind just put in the trash bin and unbox another and u are good to go hell why not have 10 at a time go in


It would certainly be a good use for older Predator/Reaper models as they are decommissioned and replaced.
Quoting 1539. Patrap:



There is none.


The p 3 from NOAA and the c 130 j are the only turboprops that fly into the CDO at flight level alts.





my point exactly...sorry...sarcasm is hard to infer in here....
1568. SSL1441
Quoting 1533. washingtonian115:

Gaston and Alex are the only storms carrying this otherwise forgettable season.


I'd be willing to put Earl on that list too.
Quoting 1524. cat6band:

I sure hope this thing gets to moving! 2 mph is crawling. My fear is that it misses the trough, and then we have bigger problems on our hands with a system in the GOM with little to no steering....


I don't care where they say they are going, until that sucker exits the GoM, I am going to be on alert and watching it.
1570. pvitr84
looks like it moved east
1571. Patrap
Quoting 1537. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:





Fly DAT into a feeder band @ 10k and you'd stall and fall.


Splash.


They really need to get that recon in there
Quoting 1533. washingtonian115:

Gaston and Alex are the only storms carrying this otherwise forgettable season.


Hurricane Earl disagrees - most destructive and most deadly of the season so far.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Marineland, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA.
1576. SSL1441
Quoting 1544. Icybubba:

The longer the NHC puts off calling this a TS the shorter amount of reaction time for people


It's not a tropical storm yet. Cut, dried, the end.
1577. FOREX
Quoting 1509. Icybubba:


A ship reported TS strength winds
I don't think the U.S.S. Taz is really what the NHC is relying on.
Quoting 1544. Icybubba:

The longer the NHC puts off calling this a TS the shorter amount of reaction time for people


Well, no. There are already watches and warning issued from Bay Co Florida to Tampa.
1579. 7544
dont forget peeps the models never showed this system stalling so imo things could change untill it starts to move again over 12 hours now just meandering around and no movement its anybodys guess stay turned
1580. IKE
Quoting 1525. muddertracker:



Same 'ole song and dance, my friends.

Aerosmith?
1581. nash36
Quoting 1544. Icybubba:

The longer the NHC puts off calling this a TS the shorter amount of reaction time for people


I wholeheartedly disagree.

They have already put up Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings. What more do people need to pull their heads out from their dark place and do what is necessary to prepare? I will lose quite a bit of respect for the NHC if they start arbitrarily assigning names to systems, just because the public is too lazy/stupid to move.
Quoting 1501. masiello3:

can someone show the stacking map thingy, I don't think its perfectly aligned but it's pretty damn close.


This place has about every map going, all on one page...

http://crownweather.com/index.php/tropical/atlant ic-tropical-weather-page/

Nullschool for the wind data

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surfac e/level/orthographic=-82.36,17.57,3000

I saw someone said earlier that it wasn't good as not up to date, but it shows the time, so you can see how old the info is and it's updated many times a day. I think it's the easiest to discern the wind and it will match the vorticity maps well. And, you see what you can't see with satellite, as the clouds can fool.
While TS watches are north of me I'm still expecting TS conditions, they will push the watches further down into Flagler later today.
Quoting 1511. Barefootontherocks:

For what reason would one need a flight at 10K ft when a drone can get surface and wind data flying at lower level than that at which (for the grammarians and spelling critics) the aircraft could safely fly?

I agree with the OP. Drones are the way of the future, and, in the future, drones will be able to do more and more and more...


Every time I hear someone say we should replace on board pilots with drones they always rely on something in "the future" (something that doesn't exist yet and is unsure to ever exist) to make their point.

Because if it was a good and practical idea to replace on board pilots with drones (hurricane hunters in this case) we would have done so by now. But we keep them around for reasons I listed in another comment.
Quoting 1546. BobinTampa:



http://newatlas.com/hurricane-coyote-drone/41315/

other sources available on your google machine as well.


Thank you I thought I was alone here.
Quoting 1553. weathermanwannabe:

My Bailiff (Leon County Sheriff's Office) just advised that they got the call to fill up the patrol cars today; getting ready to go to the 12 hour Bravo shifts on Thursday and Friday if tropical storm conditions arrive in Tallahassee. I suspect that Big Bend schools will probably cancel classes on Friday sometime tomorrow afternoon (Big Yea from the FSU students) if the storm is still headed our way.


Are there 12 hour Alpha shifts?
Quoting 1511. Barefootontherocks:

For what reason would one need a flight at 10K ft when a drone can get surface and wind data flying at lower level than that at which (for the grammarians and spelling critics) the aircraft could safely fly?

I agree with the OP. Drones are the way of the future, and, in the future, drones will be able to do more and more and more...

I can tell you from experience the current crop of drones cannot fly in WX.
Quoting 1554. 900MB:

Mostly a lurker here, but seen and studied many a storm. If there was an over/under on current NHC intensity now and at landfall in FLA, I would be over on both counts. I think this storm stands a decent chance to be Cat 1 status at landfall.

Being a NYer and also having a home out in the Hamptons, will be interesting to see how this looks come Monday.
We'll come help you weather the storm at your Hamptons house :)
1589. ChiThom
Quoting 1531. CaneKisser2:



With this handle. I've been around way before the StormW/JFV days...... The profile pic should have clued you in.....

I thought you looked familiar for such a low comment number...¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Quoting 1563. tiggeriffic:



roflmbo....I thought we were not to mention the "Storm" you know what name in here....bwahahaha...

PHunbalanced? lol?
1591. SSL1441
Quoting 1557. IDTH:


Poor Cuba.


Yeah everyone is so focused on the US and everyone forgets that Cuba has taken an absolute pounding from this thing so far.
Quoting 1553. weathermanwannabe:

My Bailiff (Leon County Sheriff's Office) just advised that they got the call to fill up the patrol cars today; getting ready to go to the 12 hour Bravo shifts on Thursday and Friday if tropical storm conditions arrive in Tallahassee. I suspect that Big Bend schools will probably cancel classes on Friday sometime tomorrow afternoon (Big Yea from the FSU students) if the storm is still headed our way.


My husband is a bailiff over in Gadsden County, so he should be getting the update as well.
1593. Patrap
Quoting 1546. BobinTampa:



http://newatlas.com/hurricane-coyote-drone/41315/

other sources available on your google machine as well.





The coyote is launched thru the HH sonde tube.


They this one I authored back n may here.


You may learn Something too.

Peace ola'



portal ght wunderblog, 2016 Hurricane Awareness Tour


Photo by Patrick Pearson
1594. MJ0ZS4
Quoting 1519. tiggeriffic:



Can I get a picture of the "drone" that can fly at 10K feet, thru hurricane force winds into the eye of a storm please? Taking into consideration that out of the majority of people on this blog, you are right up there on technology, meteorology, etc...if one would exist, I am sure you would know about it....


Every time a person posts to this blog, a hurricane gets stronger.
ex92

Quoting 1571. Patrap:




Fly DAT into a feeder band @ 10k and you'd stall and fall.


Splash.





NOAA has a Raytheon Coyote drone designed to fly into hurricanes.
Quoting 1572. AussieStorm:

HH'ers are preparing for take off. Tracking beacon activated

Oh thank goodness
Quoting 1526. Patrap:

Not named.




Caused 130,000 flooded homes and businesses.


Will add zero ACE to the basin.


Spare us the name game.


It's a as moot as a molded home.

Keep rooting for calamity,and one day....you will get it.



Hi Pat, I don't know if I missed comments about this, but does it make a difference like, insurance-wise to people affected, if it was a named tropical system, as opposed to 'just rain'?
Quoting 1571. Patrap:




Fly DAT into a feeder band @ 10k and you'd stall and fall.


Splash.





You need to investigate the real technology that has been in existence for many years now.
Aaaaand...Groundhog Day again!
1602. GatorWX
Quoting 1517. AussieStorm:



I'm the Kangaroo



That thing workout? Lol


HRD/AOML/NOAA ‏@HRD_AOML_NOAA 13 hours ago
Afternoon #NOAA43 flight arrived back safely from #TD9 and caught a glorious #sunset coming home! 📸: J. Zawislak

With this, I bit you all a good night.
Quoting 1566. SavannahStorm:



It would certainly be a good use for older Predator/Reaper models as they are decommissioned and replaced.


Current drones will not fly in any type WX. They are not that sturdy. And icing is a serious problem.
Quoting 1580. IKE:


Aerosmith?


Ha! I see that it is :) Wasn't intentional, but I'll go with it.
Quoting 1577. FOREX:

I don't think the U.S.S. Taz is really what the NHC is relying on.

Lol maybe not
https://uas.noaa.gov/news/storm-chasers-of-tomorrow .html


Given advances in technology, it's not unreasonable to assume that unmanned drones will be flying into hurricanes in the next few years and eventually replace manned flights.
Quoting 1571. Patrap:




Fly DAT into a feeder band @ 10k and you'd stall and fall.


Splash.





Nah. Ever seen an unmanned cruise missile flying just under mach 1 at low altitude, hugging valleys and jumping ridges, employing all aspects of flight at ten times the response rate of a human?? Drones can do the job. Lots of people will lose jobs though.
1609. vis0
is http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html   down or secretly updating (there is no "down on the web" alert on search,  but cannot load pg)
Quoting 1562. justmehouston:

Anyone seen Skyepony?
I thought that we would see more of her as she is a Florida blogger.

Looks like we are back in the heat again here in Houston ...by heat I mean mid 90's ...could be worse though so I'm not complaining.


Not seen her even at my various times. Hopefully she's just on holidays.
The first commercial flight to Cuba in decades...hope they packed an umbrella...or a snorkel.
11 am. 08 and 09 still depressions. Gaston a tad bit weaker and so is Lester. 92l is still 0 40.
I guess I am wrong again.
Quoting 1571. Patrap:




Fly DAT into a feeder band @ 10k and you'd stall and fall.


Splash.





Nah. Ever seen an unmanned cruise missile flying just under mach 1 at low altitude, hugging valleys and jumping ridges, employing all aspects of flight at ten times the response rate of a human?? Drones can do the job. Lots of people will lose jobs though.
I am going to play some Cities: Skylines for a bit I will be back to check in on the recon
1615. Patrap
Well...the wu cache for the entry here is askew as ping times are dragging.


IBM..we r not impressed.

Quoting 1588. redwagon:

We'll come help you weather the storm at your Hamptons house :)


Make sure your Hurricane Prep Kit includes cases of Dom Perignon and cans of beluga caviar.
Quoting 1505. masiello3:

If the NHC still has this thing as a depression I'm gonna start kicking kittens... Seriously this is just frustrating.

and I spit out my coffee....
Several squalls off west coast of Fl have 50+mph winds acording to velocity radar..
Quoting 1596. CaribBoy:

ex92



models dropped 99L too... this season is such a headache
1620. MIKEYZ
Amazing how everyone is treating this TD like a CAT 3. Im in Wrightsville Beach and am getting calls asking what I will do. Probably surf. Put an extra line on the boat. Not much more. Alot of wishcasters out there.
Quoting 1577. FOREX:

I don't think the U.S.S. Taz is really what the NHC is relying on.

They absolutely rely on ship reports. IT was hip reports that helped this get designated as a TD in the first place.
Hopefully early this morning is the last time HH has to halt operations for mechanical delays, that could be a dangerous bite on the bum some time.
Lots of water being moved about.

Quoting 1518. masiello3:

yep still a td, kitten kicking ensuing.


and I spit out my coffee again....
This TD is putting the blog into a tropical depression...
Quoting 1607. BobinTampa:

https://uas.noaa.gov/news/storm-chasers-of-tomorro w .html


Given advances in technology, it's not unreasonable to assume that unmanned drones will be flying into hurricanes in the next few years and eventually replace manned flights.


Oh it'll all be drones soon enough, drones can be in there for a whole day at a time.
Quoting 1600. frank727:



You need to investigate the real technology that has been in existence for many years now.


Technology has been in place for years and we still have manned aircraft flying into hurricanes. As I said, if we thought it was a good idea to replace the hurricane hunter pilots we would have done it by now.
Exactly.... Drones can do much more than the general public knows. 😀

The technology is amazing, in the future the only reason for manned hurricane hunters will be human ego.


Quoting 1608. franckinator:



Nah. Ever seen an unmanned cruise missile flying just under mach 1 at low altitude, hugging valleys and jumping ridges, employing all aspects of flight at ten times the response rate of a human?? Drones can do the job. Lots of people will lose jobs though.

Quoting 1556. muddertracker:

OK. So if the LLC is stronger than the MLC, shouldn't "it" be pulling, not the other way around? Does this question make sense? It seems like the MLC is pulling the LLC, not the other way around? Correct me or explain, because I'm confused.

it is my opinion that the llc is not stronger than the mlc.  the mlc has been the layer that fires storms, it has been the core of the storm for days and days.  the llc used to be nude out in the water due to shear. the mlc caused all of the growth last night.  if the llc had been stronger there is a chance 09 wouldn't have even survived the land shear from the mountainous area of cuba. 

Quoting 1616. SavannahStorm:



Make sure your Hurricane Prep Kit includes cases of Dom Perignon and cans of beluga cavier.


sushi should be of ample supply roflmbo....swim little fishy, SWIM......
They shifted the cone slightly south any reason why? Is that because it is stationary and will take more time to get to Florida?
1632. fmbill
Quoting 1580. IKE:


Aerosmith?


Sure to be ashamed of your ways...
1633. 62901IL
95% Gastonic.
1634. RM706
Quoting 1617. HurricaneLisa:


and I spit out my coffee....


HAHAHA!
This is just the type of storm that drives offshore oilfield asset management crazy. The drill ship we

are resupplying disconnected from the well and is waiting for TD 9 to move on. Meanwhile we sit in

port loaded with pipe and tools in fair weather. C'est La Vie !



1636. Patrap
Quoting 1600. frank727

Thanx, as a USMC air wing veteran,I do fairly well n those areas .




Quoting 1609. vis0:

is http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html   down or secretly updating (there is no "down on the web" alert on search,  but cannot load pg)



Not sure what you are searching or downloading but it seems like its working for me?
I guess you're just special? lol

Quoting 1620. MIKEYZ:

Amazing how everyone is treating this TD like a CAT 3. Im in Wrightsville Beach and am getting calls asking what I will do. Probably surf. Put an extra line on the boat. Not much more. Alot of wishcasters out there.


ridiculous.  to take even a cat 1 with 75 mph+ winds for granted is dangerous.  secondly, if this does move through fla like models are suggesting it will elongate and stretch across florida. binging strong winds for hours and hours and hours like charley did.

but i realize no matter how much people are warned some macho chicos out there are gonna think they are stronger than mother nature.  good luck with that.
Quoting 1621. wunderkidwx:


They absolutely rely on ship reports. IT was hip reports that helped this get designated as a TD in the first place.


ships model yes.....ummmm....taz model....not so much.... taz is just a blogger like you
Quoting 1621. wunderkidwx:


They absolutely rely on ship reports. IT was hip reports that helped this get designated as a TD in the first place.


ships model yes.....ummmm....taz model....not so much.... taz is just a blogger like you
If I had a nickel for every night this blog was screaming "tonight is the night!" on 99L/TD9 i would have like a dollar.
Quoting 1616. SavannahStorm:



Make sure your Hurricane Prep Kit includes cases of Dom Perignon and cans of beluga cavier.

And sandbags fashioned out of Nordstrom sewn-up khakis :)
1643. MahFL
Quoting 1544. Icybubba:

The longer the NHC puts off calling this a TS the shorter amount of reaction time for people


There are not going to be any mass evacuations for a Cat1 hurricane hitting a sparsely populated area of Florida.
With the 11 AM EDT advisory stating that TD9 is stationary, I would like to see what trajectory it takes when it begins moving again. The NHC says NNE initially, but will it have more of a northerly or easterly component to the expected NNE direction when it begins moving? That could make a difference of 50 or more miles to either side of the projected landfall point.
Quoting 1366. pipelines:

hate to be the bearer of bad news, but see the feathery clouds around western boundary of the storm? That means the thunderstorms are collapsing, 09L is about to lose a lot of its convection.




I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but your anal satellite imagery :)
Quoting 1581. nash36:



I wholeheartedly disagree.

They have already put up Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings. What more do people need to pull their heads out from their dark place and do what is necessary to prepare? I will lose quite a bit of respect for the NHC if they start arbitrarily assigning names to systems, just because the public is too lazy/stupid to move.


Absolutely, it's not like they are being lazy. While it may be frustrating for us, they had to cancel the last recon, what more do people want? They don't want to assume it's intensity only to change it a little later when recon arrives. They already put the TS warnings and hurricane watches up with plenty of lead time, and have discussed the potential for a hurricane in their discussions.

If people don't take it seriously only because it's still labeled a TD, that's their problem for not listening to the warnings, not the NHC's.
1646. Patrap
1647. K8eCane
Quoting 1620. MIKEYZ:

Amazing how everyone is treating this TD like a CAT 3. Im in Wrightsville Beach and am getting calls asking what I will do. Probably surf. Put an extra line on the boat. Not much more. Alot of wishcasters out there.


I hope you will reconsider this if it strengthens. They sometimes do that.
Quoting 1625. Articuno:

This TD is putting the blog into a tropical depression...

ex 92L put me into a tropical depression. 99L was the first blow when models showed it a major. 92L being dropped was like getting knocked out by a boxer.
Quoting 1618. TampaFLUSA:

Several squalls off west coast of Fl have 50+mph winds acording to velocity radar..

They're n.. wait.. does that mean ADT is right?





WAT
Quoting 1625. Articuno:

This TD is putting the blog into a tropical depression...


Quoting 1599. mitthbevnuruodo:



Hi Pat, I don't know if I missed comments about this, but does it make a difference like, insurance-wise to people affected, if it was a named tropical system, as opposed to 'just rain'?

it makes no difference whether the system that affected LA was named or not.

this caused flood.
less than 20% of the people in louisiana that were affected had flood coverage.

there is no wind claim. it did not bring strong winds. a lot of people in louisiana are screwed because they never bought a preferred flood policy, even if they were outside of the flood plain.

the naming of storms when it applies to insurance really only applies to the deductibles, as some people may have a %age deductible for "named storms"

but, like i say, in the case of louisiana it doesn't matter because wind %age deductibles only apply IF there was wind peril. there was no wind peril with the flooding. if people didn't have a flood policy in place they are screwed......
1652. MIKEYZ
Meanwhile east of Savannah GA https://weather.com/weather/radar/interactive/l/US NC0938:1:US?animation=true&layer=radarConus&zoom=8
1654. rxse7en
Hopefully not Dune Road. ;-)
Quoting 1554. 900MB:

Mostly a lurker here, but seen and studied many a storm. If there was an over/under on current NHC intensity now and at landfall in FLA, I would be over on both counts. I think this storm stands a decent chance to be Cat 1 status at landfall.

Being a NYer and also having a home out in the Hamptons, will be interesting to see how this looks come Monday.
TD9 is moving sw.... how will this effect the next model runs if the system is further south and not as strong, will the trough still be able to pick it up and move it to the NE?
Quoting 1618. TampaFLUSA:

Several squalls off west coast of Fl have 50+mph winds acording to velocity radar..


Yeah you're right, this going to be major rain even,t reports of multiple road closures already in Pinellas, dual pole estimates as high as 8 inches already near the beach, and a number of rain gauges in the 4+ inch range already.

Much more is on the way, and yeah some of those cells are getting stronger now noted by the wind signatures and lightning activity.
Quoting 1639. tiggeriffic:



ships model yes.....ummmm....taz model....not so much.... taz is just a blogger like you

Yes but there was a ship that reported TS strength winds
Quoting 1494. Sfloridacat5:



lol, I picked up on that too. It's silly to correct other's mistakes when we all make them. English is a second language for many blog members.
We should stick to the weather and not English class.


I suspect the better grammar is coming from those who learned English rigorously as a second language. Bad grammar does pollute and corrupt writing and, if not called out and corrected, will get worse. If it's bad enough it can also lead to gross miscommunication.

Quoting 1638. odinslightning:




ridiculous.  to take even a cat 1 with 75 mph+ winds for granted is dangerous.  secondly, if this does move through fla like models are suggesting it will elongate and stretch across florida. binging strong winds for hours and hours and hours like charley did.

but i realize no matter how much people are warned some macho chicos out there are gonna think they are stronger than mother nature.  good luck with that.



Charley was a small and very fast moving Hurricane. It actually moved through most areas rather quickly. I was outside in Cape Coral soon after the storm went through walking around checking out the damage (roof blown off our business) with the sun out and no wind.
Storm really didn't last very long at all, especially for a Tropical Cyclone.
Quoting 1646. Patrap:




Here comes jumbo shrimp, 'coma' part deux, this time for keeps.
12Z GFS appears to be trending stronger... and slower.

Quoting 1646. Patrap:




Maintaining its convection this time. I think it's actually a go here.
Quoting 1641. Enormousl:

If I had a nickel for every night this blog was screaming "tonight is the night!" on 99L/TD9 i would have like a dollar.


Pro'ly more likes about fifty cent be de right answr.
Quoting 1657. wunderkidwx:


Yes but there was a ship that reported TS strength winds


the comment REFERRED to taz tho...... we all know what the ships model said.....
Quoting 1631. wunderkidwx:

They shifted the cone slightly south any reason why? Is that because it is stationary and will take more time to get to Florida?


If it's stationary it could be because it's already starting to make that turn. If it kept going north the cone probably would've stayed or shifted north.
Still, if this were to be moving ashore as we speak, it would cause a lot of problems..

1667. nash36
Quoting 1650. win1gamegiantsplease:






Regardless, whether or not this becomes a named anything, you can bet your rear ends, the weather will be the same for FL, GA and SC over the next few days; very heavy rain, storm surge, strong winds, flooding and tornadoes.

That's a bad day, even if it stays "TD9."
Quoting 1628. Beachfoxx:
Exactly.... Drones can do much more than the general public knows. 😀

The technology is amazing, in the future the only reason for manned hurricane hunters will be human ego.




Hello there stranger! I'm not wishing this storm on anyone but we sure could use some rain!
1669. Grothar
It is not now nor ever has been fully stacked. The MLC and the LLC have to be aligned. Until it is, there probably will not be a designation. Although later today, it is expected to align.
The rain has started here in the Big Bend , concerned more from the rain than any breeze that might come my way from T.D. Blob..................
Quoting 1583. reedzone:

While TS watches are north of me I'm still expecting TS conditions, they will push the watches further down into Flagler later today.

I am starting to wonder about this. I am in JAX and they keep shifting the cone of doom further over and looks like we may soon be out of the doom cone in next couple updates lol. Plus this thing needs to get it's act together and start moving IMO.
Quoting 1618. TampaFLUSA:

Several squalls off west coast of Fl have 50+mph winds acording to velocity radar..


Starting to have flash backs of Tropical Storm Colin. It had 50-60 mph winds with the squalls to the east of the center, but almost no wind on the west side of the system. There were many reports of winds over 50 mph with one squall line that moved on shore from just north of Fort Myers all the way up the west coast.
Quoting 1525. muddertracker:



Same 'ole song and dance, my friends.


1 circulation at 24N 88W ? To my eyes anyway.
Where have we seen this before...

1675. 7544
Quoting 1660. redwagon:



Here comes jumbo shrimp, 'coma' part deux, this time for keeps.


yep looks like a long long tail with it too a shrimp within a blob
well almost time for the lunch time read
Quoting 1665. win1gamegiantsplease:



If it's stationary it could be because it's already starting to make that turn. If it kept going north it probably would've stayed or shifted north.


just a smidge (0.1) back to the east....I think it is starting the turn as well
1678. ProPoly
Quoting 1623. VAbeachhurricanes:

Lots of water being moved about.




It's a very big system. If it has a hurricane-sized swath of TS/near TS winds it can generate hurricane-type water movement regardless of having a qualifying core.

Quoting 1646. Patrap:



even if 09 isn't a t.s. yet last night just moistened the atmos.  the longer this sits stationary the higher the likelihood it will intensify.
Quoting 1667. nash36:



Regardless, whether or not this becomes a named anything, you can bet your rear ends, the weather will be the same for FL, GA and SC over the next few days; very heavy rain, storm surge, strong winds, flooding and tornadoes.

That's a bad day, even if it stays "TD9."


One of the guys that works for us gave me a "whatchu talkin bout Willis" look when I said I expected school to be called for Friday by tomorrow morning sometime.....
Quoting 1673. HurricaneHunterJoe:



1 circulation at 24N 88W ? To my eyes anyway.


My guess is it spins in th esame area all throughout winter into the next hurricane season.
1682. Loduck
Quoting 1602. GatorWX:



That thing workout? Lol
Oh my! Would not want to mix it up with that thing....Dang!

Quoting 1659. Sfloridacat5:



Charley was a small and very fast moving Hurricane. It actually moved through most areas rather quickly. I was outside in Cape Coral soon after the storm went through walking around checking out the damage (roof blown off our business) with the sun out and no wind.
Storm really didn't last very long at all, especially for a Tropical Cyclone.
sorry forgot to explain better.  i meant the size of 09 with the elongation and the fact that the trough could help sustain and even intensify the wind speed across florida means it will go for hours and hours.
Quoting 1628. Beachfoxx:

Exactly.... Drones can do much more than the general public knows. 😀

The technology is amazing, in the future the only reason for manned hurricane hunters will be human ego.



yep in the future all form of public service will be done by drone or robotics from policing too hurricane hunting its the way of the future and its going too be amazing
1685. LuckySD
Ya'll post too fast lol. I usually only check the blog while I'm at work and it has taken me days to catch up on all the activity. Also I think 17 pages is the most I've ever seen for comments (100 posts per page). I've seen the speculation as to why there hasn't been any recon since yesterday, but has the NHC actually provided a statement why there hasn't been a recent flight? Especially with TD9 looking more stable?

Still not stacked. Until that happens, no significant strengthening can occur.
Quoting 1659. Sfloridacat5:



Charley was a small and very fast moving Hurricane. It actually moved through most areas rather quickly. I was outside in Cape Coral soon after the storm went through walking around checking out the damage (roof blown off our business) with the sun out and no wind.
Storm really didn't last very long at all, especially for a Tropical Cyclone.


Me too, my house in the Cape lost it's roof. I've been through my share of hurricanes, and Charley was by far the shortest (and most severe), it was in and out in about 90 minutes.

Wilma on the other hand......the wind was literally howling for about 10-12 hours (or so it seemed). That was 70-80 miles away from landfall.
1688. imara
I get on here to get updates between Jeff Master's posts. The blog is full of chatty comments which are not informative, funny or fun. I have to sort through hundred's of mind numbing comments. No offense but unless one has something useful, informative, really funny or a great video I wish they would stay as a lurker. I suppose that is being judgmental and critical. Sorry. Molly the lurker for 10 years.
Quoting 1674. JrWeathermanFL:

Where have we seen this before...


I think that... if I concentrate enough... I might remember
1690. CBJeff
Well, here we go again...

Convection beginning to show signs of the same lunchtime collapse we've been seeing every day this week.
Quoting 1669. Grothar:

It is not now nor ever has been fully stacked. The MLC and the LLC have to be aligned. Until it is, there probably will not be a designation. Although later today, it is expected to align.

I guess it is time for a new blog, it happens after you comment right?
Quoting 1667. nash36:



Regardless, whether or not this becomes a named anything, you can bet your rear ends, the weather will be the same for FL, GA and SC over the next few days; very heavy rain, storm surge, strong winds, flooding and tornadoes.

That's a bad day, even if it stays "TD9."


Friday will be nasty here I'm sure, but the gif was in reference to Mr. Articuno's joke
 intensified or not, named or not,  flown into or not,  this storm  just as it is now-- even if it does not  intensify shortly before landing  which it most likely will --is going to cause hazardous surge  several feet above sea level and flooding  in the nature coast of Florida,an area  already prone to flooding  with prolonged rains  Those people up there are used to the drill and the wise ones will prepare  accordingly. Beyond that, the large amounts of rain will suck for Tally, Jax, Georgia  and the  Carolinas  and parts of those areas no doubt will also  get flooded    When the storm is over, let us hope that the very worst that can be said of it will be that everyone impacted by it had to cancel their labor day plans  😡
IMO, looks like the center may be around 24.6 87.5 based off the RGB imagery. Waiting for HH to confirm that. Based off the 8am vs 11am plots, showed movement 0.0N by 0.1E... or 0.1N by 0.1E since 5 am.
I'd like to see this storm named so people take it more seriously, and so we don't end up retiring the name TD 9. But it can screw around and fall apart as much as it wants. I'd be delighted if every remaining system this season would be as lackluster. :-)
1696. GatorWX
Quoting 1669. Grothar:

It is not now nor ever has been fully stacked. The MLC and the LLC have to be aligned. Until it is, there probably will not be a designation. Although later today, it is expected to align.


It needs 39+ surface winds, not necessarily alignment. Jus sayin', ole fella. :)
1697. Patrap


One can easily see the arc clouds blowing out near 27 n.

Not as much as yesterday.
Not a bird in the sky and my parrots are quiet today..... dogs are just chilling out quietly.
1699. ariot
Quoting 1684. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

yep in the future all form of public service will be done by drone or robotics from policing too hurricane hunting its the way of the future and its going too be amazing


You want skynet? Because that's how you get skynet. :-P
Can I just say that the big blow up of convection was portrayed excellent on past HWRF runs... This may indeed become a Hurricane afterall.. I'm watching it very closely here in Flagler. NHC only extended watches to St. Johns County, but I expect us to be included later today.
Getting a very gusty band with heavy rain across Longboat Key right now. Feels very tropical.
1702. GatorWX
Quoting 1672. Sfloridacat5:



Starting to have flash backs of Tropical Storm Colin. It had 50-60 mph winds with the squalls to the east of the center, but almost no wind on the west side of the system. There were many reports of winds over 50 mph with one squall line that moved on shore from just north of Fort Myers all the way up the west coast.


Yes! I was on the beach at the time. Made everything else that'd happened seem like a breeze in a park. Everyone scattered. I liked it though.
1703. Patrap
Feel free to post local action statements if in the watch and warned areas.

They can be found on your local areas wu page.
1704. RM706
Quoting 1625. Articuno:

This TD is putting the blog into a tropical depression...


I just choked on my pork rinds reading this and Lisa's re-quote
Quoting 1658. georgevandenberghe:



I suspect the better grammar is coming from those who learned English rigorously as a second language. Bad grammar does pollute and corrupt writing and, if not called out and corrected, will get worse. If it's bad enough it can also lead to gross miscommunication.




Raelly givme a brake!
Well I know she's not perfect,
But she tries so hard to be.
And I thank God that she isn't,
Cause how boring would that be.
It's the little imperfections,
It's the sudden change in plans.
When she misreads the directions,
We're lost but holding hands!
Yeah, I live for little moments,
When she steals my BLOB again,
And doesn't even know it....

-The love ballad of the MLC and LLC
1707. intampa
Quoting 1699. ariot:



You want skynet? Because that's how you get skynet. :-P
Or an uprising of the people who are put out of jobs by automation... moved to ghettos and eventually rebel. its all in the movies
GFS tracking it inland over South Carolina. Meaning the coast will feel the full brunt of onshore winds and rain.

HEHEHE yes please!

1710. hophead
I think I've seen this discussed before regarding the gulf - aren't there negative effects to a stationary system from the up welling of cooler waters and its effect on the SSTs?
1711. Patrap
we haven't had a recon in there in over 12 hours, don't understand why they didn't send one out around 7 this morning. to long without information, especially with a storm that has implication on land.
1713. barbamz
Finally! Have a good flight!



Luis Santana Verifizierter Account ‏@LuisSantana 13 Min.Vor 13 Minuten
Ready for takeoff! #HurricaneHunter #TD9 Track my flight N43RF
Madeline closing in

So much misinformation being spread, kind of disheartening. Also, from the NHC forecast discussion at 11 am: "The center is very difficult to locate, but observations from a ship suggest that there has been little motion since earlier this
morning, so the initial motion estimate is stationary." and "Using the Dvorak rules, a bursting but disorganized convective pattern would indicate little change in strength." In other words, in this case, like the rest of us, they are guessing. They would probably admit to you that it could already be a TS and I think it's fair to use observations from a ship as someone noted, or other model to gauge intensity and question their method when it's not based on hard data. My thought, they will easily find a TS in the convection
Quoting 1700. reedzone:

Can I just say that the big blow up of convection was portrayed excellent on past HWRF runs... This may indeed become a Hurricane afterall.. I'm watching it very closely here in Flagler. NHC only extended watches to St. Johns County, but I expect us to be included later today.


I am in JAX and think they may keep shifting cone to the left but that's just me
Quoting 1701. flbeachgirl:

Getting a very gusty band with heavy rain across Longboat Key right now. Feels very tropical.

Very Tropical huh?.Did you get hit with suntan lotion and Pina Coladas?
Quoting 1708. SavannahStorm:

GFS tracking it inland over South Carolina. Meaning the coast will feel the full brunt of onshore winds and rain.




I think this is too far west on this run. I see a track similar to the HWRF, which has done mighty well so far with TD9 since it got classified a TD.
1719. 900MB
Quoting 1646. Patrap:




Pretty dang impressive for a TD if u ask me.
Quoting 1696. GatorWX:



It needs 39+ surface winds, not necessarily alignment. Jus sayin', ole fella. :)


If ever we could use an ASCAT...
1721. bwi
Quoting 1697. Patrap:



One can easily see the arc clouds blowing out near 27 n.

Not as much as yesterday.


Last couple frames getting that twisty upper level look over the center, though.
1722. rxse7en
Quoting 1703. Patrap:

Feel free to post local action statements if in the watch and warned areas.

They can be found on your local areas wu page.
Downtown Jacksonville.
1723. ariot
Quoting 1707. intampa:

Or an uprising of the people who are put out of jobs by automation... moved to ghettos and eventually rebel. its all in the movies


Yes brother, hence my username :-)
Quoting 1711. Patrap:





This thing needs to move NE soon. So much moisture in the gulf to feed 99.
Could it somehow pick up or merge with all the moisture from the low off the SE coast of Texas?
GFS has shifted some W.
Quoting 1711. Patrap:




The cirrus looking clouds on the north. Is that a sign of weakening, strengthening or absolutely nothing of importance?
Oh NAM, you scam(p)

Quoting 1725. hurcoloid:

GFS has shifted some W.


I am in JAX and I see the doom cone continuing to shift west or to left in future updates IMO.
So is the GFS onto something or is this just a brief lurch to the west? I can't believe it's gone from offshore to inland so quickly. I wonder if they are having initialization problems with a storm that is so ill-defined.
it looks like the LLC and MLC are getting closer than they ever have been to being stacked...
Quoting 1726. lurkNoMore:

The cirrus looking clouds on the north. Is that a sign of weakening, strengthening or absolutely nothing of importance?
The cirrus clouds fanning out show there is outflow in that direction.
Quoting 1727. BaltimoreBrian:

Oh NAM, you scam(p)




Okay. Who gave the NAM crack?
Quoting 1716. weatherxtreme:



I am in JAX and think they may keep shifting cone to the left but that's just me


your left or my left?
Quoting 1729. rwdobson:

So is the GFS onto something or is this just a brief lurch to the west? I can't believe it's gone from offshore to inland so quickly. I wonder if they are having initialization problems with a storm that is so ill-defined.


looks to me as if the 12z of NAM and GFS are taking into account the slower motion which would make a track farther west make sense
Quoting 1651. odinslightning:


it makes no difference whether the system that affected LA was named or not.�

this caused flood.
less than 20% of the people in louisiana that were affected had flood coverage.

there is no wind claim.� it did not bring strong winds.� a lot of people in louisiana are screwed because they never bought a preferred flood policy, even if they were outside of the flood plain.�

the naming of storms when it applies to insurance really only applies to the deductibles, as some people may have a %age deductible for "named storms"

but, like i say, in the case of louisiana it doesn't matter because wind %age deductibles only apply IF there was wind peril.� there was no wind peril with the flooding.� if people didn't have a flood policy in place they are screwed......



Actually, in the Parishes most heavily impacted, E. Baton Rouge, Ascension and Livingston, the rate of those with SFIPs was above 20%. There are roughly 30k claims currently. Also, many people in towns like Denham Springs were in AE zones, but when their homes were built, LOMAs (Letter of Map Amendment) were applied for by the builders and granted, then revalidated when the FIRM changed in 2012. Basically, they were hosed by builders who bought cheap land in Special Hazard Zones, dumped enough fill on these lots to apply for a LOMA, and got these houses zoned X. Entire neighborhoods in AE zones LOMA'd out into X...sometimes by mere inches.
Took this at 7 (central) looking at TD9 from Santa Rosa Beach FL


Took this an hour ago. Coming over the mid bay bridge to Destin
The Hurricane Hunters are on the way.

http://airbornescience.nasa.gov/tracker/#view=map &mapid=_11&zoom=9&lat=27.1131&lng=-82.7928&callsig n=NOAA43
1738. Patrap

Climate Change May be Readying to Split the Heavens over the U.S. Southeast — So What Can We Do?


In other words, even the fast-feedback biased Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity models show that the window for 1.5 C is probably closed and the 2 C window is slamming shut pretty fast. To this point, we should give a concerned nod to Hansen et al.’s shot-across-the-bow assessment of paleoclimate, where the 405 parts per million CO2 and 490 ppm CO2e currently in the Earth’s atmosphere hints that long-term warming from simply a maintained level of these greenhouse gasses is about 3-4 C (see How Sensitive is our Climate?).

Regardless of how climate sensitivity ultimately pans out, the world is in kind of a rough spot with some bad climate outcomes likely already locked in. Sadly, we are experiencing the first forays of these now, as the past week brings news of a freak lightning strike killing hundreds of Arctic-native reindeer in Norway, while three tropical cyclones formed simultaneously in the record-hot Atlantic. Tropical Depression 9 is expected to dump a foot or more of rainfall over parts of Florida just a couple of weeks after Louisiana experienced a flood disaster whose damages now rival that of Hurricane Andrew — resulting in a massive housing crisis with 86,000 people seeking federal aid.
Quoting 1733. BobinTampa:



your left or my left?



LOL!
Ohh boy, we got some mid-level churning right above the LLC...

Quoting 1732. FunnelVortex:



Okay. Who gave the NAM crack?


do not use the NAM 4km for tropical systems. NAM 12km and 32km are the ones to look at
The NAM forecasting the tropics would be like a lawyer perfoming your heart transplant. :)
1744. LuckySD
Possibly a very naive question here. Would it ever be possible to put equipment on a submarine to gather data from underneath a storm? Is that completely ridiculous to even ask? I realize there are an extreme amount of variables, but I got to thinking that with Gaston being too far away for air recon in the middle of the Atlantic and us not having very much info on it. Would the seas be too rough underneath a storm for a sub to remain stable? Could you even get reliable data? Just a daydream thought, I should probably get back to work.
Vroom vroom ✈️...1008mb and 30kts already just off the FL coast.
1746. beell
Quoting 1697. Patrap:



One can easily see the arc clouds blowing out near 27 n.

Not as much as yesterday.


Still taking a hit from entrained mid-level dry air in the NW quad. Morning soundings across the northern gulf coast seem to verify that opinion w/RH's below 40% at and near the 500 mb level along with the sat presentation.
1747. WxLogic
Lift off:

URNT15 KWBC 311605^M
NOAA3 1009A CYCLONE HDOB 02 20160831

Shift to the left on the 12z gfs
There are at least 2 buoys very far from the center with winds over 35mph.
Quoting 1717. MeteorologistTV:


Very Tropical huh?.Did you get hit with suntan lotion and Pina Coladas?


Lol - I wish! Couldn't find the sun right now even if I had a search party.

Quoting 1699. ariot:



You want skynet? Because that's how you get skynet. :-P
1752. Patrap
Quoting 1739. jlp09550:




Surely that's not an eye?!
1754. IDTH
Quoting 1700. reedzone:

Can I just say that the big blow up of convection was portrayed excellent on past HWRF runs... This may indeed become a Hurricane afterall.. I'm watching it very closely here in Flagler. NHC only extended watches to St. Johns County, but I expect us to be included later today.

HWRF is great when with intensity when there is a actually an organized center.
1755. Houdude
On visual and AVN it sure looks like the center of 09 is drifting southwest toward Yucatan.
I do agree with the people saying the track could change. Remember Isaac? It was supposed to go into Tampa but turned and went right into NOLA (on the anniversary of Katrina too, ironically).

So yeah, it can change.
1757. GatorWX
Quoting 1732. FunnelVortex:



Okay. Who gave the NAM crack?


Ughhh. Sorry. I told it to stay out of my stash. Wait, wrong number, wrong number! :p
Quoting 1747. WxLogic:

Lift off:

URNT15 KWBC 311605^M
NOAA3 1009A CYCLONE HDOB 02 20160831

Would not be fun...

1760. KORBIN
What is upwelling?

Upwelling is a process in which deep, cold water rises toward the surface.

http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/upwelling.jpg

This graphic shows how displaced surface waters are replaced by cold, nutrient-rich water that “wells up” from below.

Reference:
http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/upwelling.html


Winds blowing across the ocean surface push water away. Water then rises up from beneath the surface to replace the water that was pushed away. This process is known as “upwelling.”

Upwelling occurs in the open ocean and along coastlines. The reverse process, called “downwelling,” also occurs when wind causes surface water to build up along a coastline and the surface water eventually sinks toward the bottom.

Water that rises to the surface as a result of upwelling is typically colder and is rich in nutrients. These nutrients “fertilize” surface waters, meaning that these surface waters often have high biological productivity. Therefore, good fishing grounds typically are found where upwelling is common.
Anyone else use this site for recon: http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/ ?

getting "software error"
Plane will be entering the center within 45minutes
1764. Loduck
Quoting 1688. imara:

I get on here to get updates between Jeff Master's posts. The blog is full of chatty comments which are not informative, funny or fun. I have to sort through hundred's of mind numbing comments. No offense but unless one has something useful, informative, really funny or a great video I wish they would stay as a lurker. I suppose that is being judgmental and critical. Sorry. Molly the lurker for 10 years.
O.K. I promise to stop commenting and go back to lurking if you promise you will do the same.
Quoting 1748. jordan1tylerr:


Shift to the left on the 12z gfs


Yep, that is what I think is happening, shifting more to the left
1766. CBJeff
Embrace the mystic alchemy that is "dead reckoning":

At it's current speed and heading, TD9 will make landfall around Gulf Shores, AL on September 15th.
Quoting 1752. Patrap:




Already finding winds... Guys don't be surprised that they find a 60 mph. TS, I sure wont.
1768. IKE
I see the 12Z GFS shows a panhandle hit around beautiful Panama City beaches.
Quoting 1745. Jbailey0531:

Vroom vroom ✈️...1008mb and 30kts already just off the FL coast.


one heck of a squall line just passed through the bradenton/ sarasota area
I ‘ll say it again, 9 is going to erupt.#9 #9 #9
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
One run not a forecast
1773. Patrap
Winds should be up as the noted improvement of the overall CDO is much better than daybreak.

Rigs reporting winds above 40 knot, at. 90ft asl
Quoting 1753. Jbailey0531:



Surely that's not an eye?!


Don't beg..... Geeeesh!!
Quoting 1761. hurricanehanna:

Anyone else use this site for recon: http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/ ?

getting "software error"


I'm getting it too :/
1776. csmda
Quoting 1768. IKE:

I see the 12Z GFS shows a panhandle hit around beautiful Panama City beaches.


I saw that. Not happy, it needs to switch back east.
Quoting 1766. CBJeff:

Embrace the mystic alchemy that is "dead reckoning":

At it's current speed and heading, TD9 will make landfall around Gulf Shores, AL on September 15th.


Which year ?
Quoting 1731. BaltimoreBrian:

The cirrus clouds fanning out show there is outflow in that direction.


No it's not, it's a sign of collapsing thunderstorms, they collapsed earlier.
I see no major fronts coming in, and the front expected for Houston this weekend that was supposed to pull up stationary doesn't seem to be mentioned anymore.

So, please tell me why the media has been so determined to tell everyone TD9 is headed for FL (for about 2 days now) when it has consistently traveled in line with the BAMM model of about 2 days ago which put it on a beeline for So. TX.?
I don't even know it I agree with that, but it so far has been more accurate: 
--- TD9 has been a difficult system to figure, but the many ensemble models haven't got it right so far.The system has done little to indicate it is headed to FL while all I hear on the news is how this thing is going to FL.That is not very responsible, IMO.  It is in the middle of the GOM: it could go anywhere, and has actually been on the prior BAMM route.
Has anyone thought to look into what is different in the BAMM as compared to the other models?Maybe this would show some reason why the prior BAMM model has been showing more accurate and give a better idea of what to look for in determining where TD9 is going.  Makes sense to me, since BAMM was the only variant shown for the most part.
Now, I do admit there was a recent jog north, but then also it jogged or shifted slightly east.  So what?  Do we then think it's headed for Key West?Also, prior to all that, there was a turn to the SW, and they didn't all say it was going that way, either.  It almost seems like no matter what, there is insistence that TD9 cannot go anywhere other than FL simply because of whatever - the consensus?  Please don't let model consensus become the new PC police that prevents independent thought.  We still ought to be on our toes on this and not lull everyone along the rest of the GOM into thinking there's no chance this storm could touch them, when in reality, it has not yet performed according to consensus expectations.
Quoting 1628. Beachfoxx:

Exactly.... Drones can do much more than the general public knows. 😀

The technology is amazing, in the future the only reason for manned hurricane hunters will be human ego.



Hi Foxxy,
:)
Good to "see" you. How's the panhandle weather today? Stay safe and be safe!
Oh, ...one more thing while I'm quietly not ranting,........that Low near So. TX is gradually heading further South.Might it's departure that direction increase the possibility that TD9 could be more likely to go that former BAMM route toward So. TX?To me, that would seem possible, especially without a big front coming down quickly enough and with TD9 building in the middle of the GOM.
1782. NNYer
Quoting 1551. Icybubba:


Gaston only ate 5 dozen eggs, TD9 ate SIX dozen eggs


Hate to smell the outflow of that!

Quoting 1753. Jbailey0531:



Surely that's not an eye?!

When an eye forms, I think it might be more to the west than the consensus would like for predicting this thing to head for FL.


i wasn't expecting it for the pressure to be like it's a C3 already
- WHEREVER TD9 goes, I think she has time to become rather ugly.
Quoting 1584. FunnelVortex:



Every time I hear someone say we should replace on board pilots with drones they always rely on something in "the future" (something that doesn't exist yet and is unsure to ever exist) to make their point.

Because if it was a good and practical idea to replace on board pilots with drones (hurricane hunters in this case) we would have done so by now. But we keep them around for reasons I listed in another comment.
Who's shouting? Are you aware the use of drones by NWS is very new. I may be mistaken, but I believe experimental use began last year. Drones will lead to / bring better forecasts. Drones may even replace weather balloons.
:)
Quoting 1587. hurcoloid:


I can tell you from experience the current crop of drones cannot fly in WX.
My comment stated, twice, "the future." You gotta start somewhere.
Quoting 1477. AussieStorm:



The last image gets me thinking of this.....


Hot Tower


I like them pics.!
The first one is scary, looking at the movement on the outskirts of TD9.
Notice the degree of movement all around and which sides see the most of it.
I think the former BAMM was onto something to some extent, and not sure what, how or why.
Would be nice to know what it had that differed from other models.
Quoting 1651. odinslightning:


it makes no difference whether the system that affected LA was named or not.�

this caused flood.
less than 20% of the people in louisiana that were affected had flood coverage.

there is no wind claim.� it did not bring strong winds.� a lot of people in louisiana are screwed because they never bought a preferred flood policy, even if they were outside of the flood plain.�

the naming of storms when it applies to insurance really only applies to the deductibles, as some people may have a %age deductible for "named storms"

but, like i say, in the case of louisiana it doesn't matter because wind %age deductibles only apply IF there was wind peril.� there was no wind peril with the flooding.� if people didn't have a flood policy in place they are screwed......



This is correct insurance analysis. In Florida, there are additional issues as well. Although homeowners may have a wind peril included in their HO policy, and there will surely be wind, surge damage which contributes will not be covered in most newer policies. In fact, if there is an anticoncurrent cause provision in the policy (the growing trend), even the wind damage could be excluded. This is not intended to be construed as legal advice, and is merely my personal observation. I personally would consult a Florida lawyer immediately, if I had a loss, for an opinion regarding coverage.
Quoting 1779. WalkingInTheSun:

I see no major fronts coming in, and the front expected for Houston this weekend that was supposed to pull up stationary doesn't seem to be mentioned anymore.

So, please tell me why the media has been so determined to tell everyone TD9 is headed for FL (for about 2 days now) when it has consistently traveled in line with the BAMM model of about 2 days ago which put it on a beeline for So. TX.?
I don't even know it I agree with that, but it so far has been more accurate: 
--- TD9 has been a difficult system to figure, but the many ensemble models haven't got it right so far.The system has done little to indicate it is headed to FL while all I hear on the news is how this thing is going to FL.That is not very responsible, IMO.  It is in the middle of the GOM: it could go anywhere, and has actually been on the prior BAMM route.
Has anyone thought to look into what is different in the BAMM as compared to the other models?Maybe this would show some reason why the prior BAMM model has been showing more accurate and give a better idea of what to look for in determining where TD9 is going.  Makes sense to me, since BAMM was the only variant shown for the most part.
Now, I do admit there was a recent jog north, but then also it jogged or shifted slightly east.  So what?  Do we then think it's headed for Key West?Also, prior to all that, there was a turn to the SW, and they didn't all say it was going that way, either.  It almost seems like no matter what, there is insistence that TD9 cannot go anywhere other than FL simply because of whatever - the consensus?  Please don't let model consensus become the new PC police that prevents independent thought.  We still ought to be on our toes on this and not lull everyone along the rest of the GOM into thinking there's no chance this storm could touch them, when in reality, it has not yet performed according to consensus expectations.


Tropical systems can't make their own patterns; they go with the prevailing flow. It is the combination of the trough that is now diving south to the SE US and the aftereffects of TD 8 that is setting TD 9/future Hermine to utimately move NNE/NE through the Panhandle or Big Bend of FL. Upper level winds over SE TX/LA are from the NW and pressures are too high to support any system moving towards SE TX/LA or even S TX right now. Models aren't infallible, but they do generally reflect current conditions enough. If there was a hint of any real change in the forecast path, it would show up in the model runs.

TD 9 is doing exactly as most credible forecasts predicted it would under the circumstances.

Now, if it stalls out competely and allows the trough to slip by, then it's a new ball game...but that's really not looking too likely.
Quoting 1753. Jbailey0531:



Surely that's not an eye?!


Sort of looks like competing attempts at a CoC starting to find common ground to merge.
The storminess seems to be dropping off a bit on the N side as it appears to be edging closer to the Yucatan during this episode. Once it gets its act together, I think it could grow rather quickly.
Quoting 1561. Patrap:






Nice blob-maps!
Quoting 1735. NOLALawyer:



Actually, in the Parishes most heavily impacted, E. Baton Rouge, Ascension and Livingston, the rate of those with SFIPs was above 20%. There are roughly 30k claims currently. Also, many people in towns like Denham Springs were in AE zones, but when their homes were built, LOMAs (Letter of Map Amendment) were applied for by the builders and granted, then revalidated when the FIRM changed in 2012. Basically, they were hosed by builders who bought cheap land in Special Hazard Zones, dumped enough fill on these lots to apply for a LOMA, and got these houses zoned X. Entire neighborhoods in AE zones LOMA'd out into X...sometimes by mere inches.


That is why I tell people, Everybody in south Louisiana is in a flood zone. While some zones are more hazardous than others, everyone is in a flood zone. Flood maps are designed to predict the likelihood of a flood. Low risk zones (C, B, or X) means just that, the risk of flooding is lower than average. This does not promise a flood will never occur. A home is the biggest purchase (most) people will make in their lifetime, why not protect it. It is your responsibility.
Quoting 1792. WalkingInTheSun:



Nice blob-maps!


It's making its turn to the north! No... it's going west. :/ NOW it's making its turn to the north! No... It's going west :(. NOW IT'S MAKING ITS TURN TO THE NORTH...
Quoting 1790. AnthonyJKenn:



Tropical systems can't make their own patterns; ......

- REALLY? - I think a few past storms might want to disagree, lol.


....TD 9 is doing exactly as most credible forecasts predicted it would under the circumstances.

-- Does that mean the BAMM model I saw a few days ago was not a credible model? If not, then why use it?


...Now, if it stalls out competely and allows the trough to slip by, then it's a new ball game...but that's really not looking too likely.


-- The most sense & my point, actually.
Everything changes. Things don't always pan out like we think, and the changes don't happen in only one place.
That diving trough, upper level winds, high pressure areas - they are all subject to changes and so are the things that produce them. We cannot look at one aspect, think it is going to stay conducive no matter what and that nothing else is changing. For example, what you said could happen with that trough. That Low near Brownsville sinking away SW brings changes. The lack of a front that had been expected in Houston is a change. If a CoC for TD9 forms more to the W or SW than expected, that is a change. The stalling of it all and potential for buildup is a change. -- The latter could be a big change, as we have seen in storms of the past that they tend to "have a mind of their own" if they get big enough, due to being a stronger system less easily manipulated by other systems.
Hey, here's an idea, people!
Because there was so much flooding in parts of LA and so on, lets all focus on the impossibility that TD9 could ever become a threat to LA since they've already had a tough time, recently. - I wonder, with 1,000-yr or 500-yr flooding in recent weeks, how many lives might be lost if they get a nasty hurricane suddenly while totally unprepared because it just could not happen since they already had tough times enough.

People need to keep watching on this. The TD9 hasn't yet done what they said, for 2-3 days, so that makes me oh so confident to assume whatever is said it accurate now. Maybe it will be. Fine. I just would not want to be the one responsible for lulling a bunch of hapless, trusting people into complacency if there is a chance they could be wrong & lots of people already suffering could get hurt even more. That's all.
Barefoot!
All good today, we've got hot August temperatures, a little breeze, oh, should I mention the TS? LoL so far we are still out of the cone of concern. 😀
Quoting 1780. Barefootontherocks:

Hi Foxxy,
:)
Good to "see" you. How's the panhandle weather today? Stay safe and be safe!
the nhc eventually gets it correct after 9 days of wrong