WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Little Change to 99L in The Bahamas; 91L Headed Towards North Carolina

By: Jeff Masters 4:35 PM GMT on August 27, 2016

There is little new to say about the saga of tropical wave Invest 99L, which continued to chug west-northwest at 10 mph through the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday morning towards South Florida and the Florida Keys. Satellite loops late Saturday morning showed little change in the storm’s organization and heavy thunderstorms since yesterday; 99L still lacked a well-organized surface circulation center and the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity was modest at best. Wind shear was a moderately high 15 - 20 knots, and 99L was still struggling with dry air, as seen on water vapor satellite imagery. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remained favorable for development, though, near 30 - 30.5°C (86 - 87°F). The Hurricane Hunter missions for Saturday afternoon have been cancelled.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of 99L.


Figure 2. View from a webcam on Great Exuma Island in The Bahamas at 11:36 am EDT August 27, 2016. Heavy rains and gusty winds from 99L were affecting the island. Image credit: Bonefish’s Webcam.

Track forecast for 99L
There is now model consensus among the GFS, European, and UKMET models that 99L will continue on its current west-northwest track for the next three days and not turn to the north along the west coast of Florida. A strong ridge of high pressure now covering much of the Southeast U.S. and northern Gulf of Mexico will remain in place through Tuesday, which should keep 99L on its general west-northwest track at 5 - 10 mph. The storm will pass by South Florida and the Florida Keys on Sunday, bringing heavy rains to South Florida and Cuba on Saturday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. The 7-day precipitation outlook from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC) calls for a large area of 3 - 7” rains across South Florida over the coming week.

Intensity forecast for 99L
The SHIPS model on Saturday morning predicted that wind shear would fall slightly, to 10 - 15 knots, Sunday afternoon and beyond. SSTs will increase to 30.5°C (87°F) by Wednesday, and mid-level relative humidity was predicted to decrease from 65% to 55 - 60%. The shear and dry air may be strong enough to continue to keep 99L from organizing into a tropical depression, as predicted by NHC: in their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 99L 2-day and 5-day odds of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm of 20% and 40%, respectively.

Two of our three reliable models for predicting tropical genesis, the ECMWF and GFS, continued to show no development of 99L into a tropical cyclone over the next five days in their latest 0Z Saturday (8 pm EDT Friday) runs. Our other reliable tropical cyclone genesis model, the UKMET, continued to predict that 99L would develop into a hurricane in the central Gulf of Mexico by the middle of the week. Even though the development odds for 99L have decreased markedly since the storm moved past Puerto Rico, we should not relax our guard with this storm until the UKMET falls in line with the GFS and European models. I will continue to mistrust 99L, since a strong tropical wave moving through the Gulf during the peak part of hurricane season is always a potentially dangerous situation.


Figure 3. Latest satellite image of Invest 91L off the coast of North Carolina.

91L headed towards North Carolina
An area of disturbed weather located about 500 miles east-southeast of North Carolina is moving west-northwest towards that state at about 10 mph, and was designated Invest 91L by NHC on Friday afternoon. Satellite loops on Saturday morning showed 91L had a vigorous but elongated surface circulation, and only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, which were removed from the center. A few showers from 91L were affecting Bermuda on Saturday morning, as seen on Bermuda radar. Conditions favorable for development include moderate wind shear near 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of 29.5°C (85°F). These SSTs were about 2 - 3°F above average, and in July 2016, were the warmest July SSTs ever recorded for that area of ocean. However, 91L is embedded in area of dry air with humidities around 40 - 45% at mid levels of the atmosphere, and this dry air was stymying development.

Forecast for 91L
Steering currents favor a west-northwesterly motion for 91L at about 5 - 10 mph over the next three days. By Monday evening, 91L will begin spreading heavy rains along the coast of North Carolina, and the storm could move ashore on Tuesday before turning northeastwards, out to sea. That doesn’t give 91L a lot of time to develop, particularly since the atmosphere surrounding the storm is expected to remain quite dry. The 8 am EDT Saturday run of the SHIPS model predicted otherwise favorable conditions for development through Tuesday, with wind shear in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and unusually warm SSTs near 29 - 29.5°C (84 - 85°F.)

The Saturday morning operational runs of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the European, GFS and UKMET models, did not show development of 91L, but the GFS ensemble forecast, done by taking the operational high-resolution version of the model and running it at lower resolution with slight perturbations to the initial conditions in order to generate a range of possible outcomes, had more than 50% of its twenty ensemble members predict that a tropical depression would form. Less than 20% of the 50 members of the 00Z Saturday European ensemble model forecasts showed development. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 91L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 30%. Since the atmosphere 91L is embedded in is so dry, this storm should not be a huge rain maker for North Carolina relative to their usual tropical storms..

New tropical wave due to emerge from Africa on Tuesday may develop
The Saturday morning operational runs of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the European, GFS and UKMET models, all predicted that a strong tropical wave expected to emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday would develop into a tropical depression by late next week as it moves to the west at 15 - 20 mph. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC did not yet give 2-day and 5-day development odds for this system, but I give the wave 5-day development odds of 10%.


Figure 4. Latest satellite image of Tropical Storm Gaston.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropics are very busy this weekend, but that’s what we expect this time of year. In the Atlantic, we have Tropical Storm Gaston churning the waters about 750 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Gaston is not a threat to land, but is expected to intensify into a Category 2 hurricane as it recurves to the northeast early in the week.


Figure 5. Latest satellite image of Tropical Storm Madeline.


Figure 6. Latest satellite image of Hurricane Lester.

Hawaii is keeping a close eye on Tropical Storm Madeline, which is forecast to pass through the islands on Thursday. Close behind Madeline is Hurricane Lester, which may pass near or through the islands next Saturday.


Figure 7. Latest satellite image of Typhoon Lionrock.

Japan is watching Category 3 Typhoon Lionrock, which is expected to curve to the northwest and hit Japan as a tropical storm on Wednesday.

Bob Henson will be back with a new post by early Sunday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 1988. FIUStormChaser:

After looking over Satellite and Radar imagery, Shear is currently ripping 99L to shreds. The center is currently devoid of circulation and the heavy shear has eroded all of the thunderstorms on its eastern side. All of the quadrants of the circulation are devoid of thunderstorms except the SE quadrant. As the thunderstorms rotate toward the coastline and keys of Florida, they quickly die out.. meaning the atmosphere is not conducive for development.
I don't see how the Euro solution is going to be anywhere near correct.Is it not picking up on the ULL that has seemingly followed this storm now for a few days? The conditions have just not been favorable at all for this thing to develop.I think the GFS solution is more realistic (which means Ian will be a trash system) in showing a weak T.S at best approaching the west coast of Florida.
the cone of DOOM

2003. FOREX
Is the "coc" of 99L again outrunning the convection? The only spin I see is the naked swirl approaching 82 Longitute, SW of Miami.
2004. hydrus
Quoting 1996. Grothar:

That is a strong looking wave about to come off. Remember, from a few days ago, it was named Egadsoblob!




Yep...Many will be calling it something else in a week or so.
Quoting 1982. washingtonian115:

Joaquin was last year and has now been retired.
There is still the off chance that 99L takes too long to organize (seeing how things have been for more than a week with it) with the African wave organizing very quickly and becoming Ian. Of course this is assuming TD 8 becomes Hermine.

Quoting 1984. jimijr:

The dry sinking air coming out of the TUT-low off JAX is squelching everything in Florida. It might be evening before the goods arrive here, though sooner up at ORC. Meanwhile, sunny and comfortable in KEYW, enjoying the paper on the patio. How odd.



Even though the "center" is approaching you from the SE, the shear is destroying any convection associated with it and thus you are currently on the dry side of the system, as the disorganized "center" passes you it will drag the convection behind it, thus bringing you squally weather and rain. I'd say things are going to get stormy for you later this evening.
Quoting 2002. thetwilightzone:

the cone of DOOM




99L is gonna get beat.

AGAIN.
Quoting 1991. ecflweatherfan:



I was wondering the same thing. My guess would be TD8, but NHC updated TWO still indicates a planned flight into 99L, if necessary, this afternoon. Now could they have just re-routed the HH flight to 8, because 99L isn't looking overly impressive? Possible. I would think they would have taken off and immediately tracked SE if headed to 99L though.


99L still is not showing much in terms of development, and is not expected to until well into Monday/Tuesday. Also, there is the issue of being able to fly over and into Cuban airspace. Improvement in relations not-with-standing, I believe that we are only allowed that in extremely special circumstances (i.e. a really bigace storm). 99L right now does not qualify.
Quoting 1995. FOREX:

So what is your 112.567564382904457 hour analysis?


Partly Cloudy with a chance of meatballs... Lol. I mean there is spaghetti (model charts) all over the place after all.

Quoting 2003. FOREX:

Is the "coc" of 99L again outrunning the convection? The only spin I see is the naked swirl approaching 82 Longitute, SW of Miami.


i think that one would die i think the real spin wish is moving march slower is down by 23N 79W wish is march better Organized this AM i really hop noaa gos out this PM so we can really see whats going on oh nos the center may have reform why we watch the old center race a way
Quoting 1991. ecflweatherfan:



I was wondering the same thing. My guess would be TD8, but NHC updated TWO still indicates a planned flight into 99L, if necessary, this afternoon. Now could they have just re-routed the HH flight to 8, because 99L isn't looking overly impressive? Possible. I would think they would have taken off and immediately tracked SE if headed to 99L though.


000
URNT15 KNHC 281447
AF303 0108A CYCLONE HDOB 03 20160828


When looking at a HDOB header the numbers after the plane number (AF303) are:
01 = Flight Number
08A = Cyclone Number (A for Atlantic)
Quoting 2003. FOREX:

Is the "coc" of 99L again outrunning the convection? The only spin I see is the naked swirl approaching 82 Longitute, SW of Miami.


In short - yes, and it will be yes until the vast majority of 99L pulls out of the Florida Straights.
Quoting 2001. washingtonian115:

I don't see how the Euro solution is going to be anywhere near correct.Is it not picking up on the ULL that has seemingly followed this storm now for a few days? The conditions have just not been favorable at all for this thing to develop.I think the GFS solution is more realistic (which means Ian will be a trash system) in showing a weak T.S at best approaching the west coast of Florida.


I agree with you, the conditions are just not there for the EURO forecast to verify, and the EURO was one of the models that took 99L as a hurricane into Florida earlier this week. The GFS has actually done a remarkable job with the system at this point, and If 99L were to develop into anything it would be a weak system with the primary threat of flooding in the Gulf Coast. That ULL has been shearing 99L for the last couple of days, and has continued to create the mess that we see on radar and satellite today.
2014. ackee
Quoting 2004. hydrus:

Yep...Many will be calling it something else i a week or so.
it much further south than where model as been saying it would exit the coast
Quoting 2011. nrtiwlnvragn:



000
URNT15 KNHC 281447
AF303 0108A CYCLONE HDOB 03 20160828


When looking at a HDOB header the numbers after the plane number (AF303) are:
01 = Flight Number
08A = Cyclone Number (A for Atlantic)


Yep. Didn't catch that. Thanks for the clarification. :-)
Wonder what interference pattern sets up regarding the waves being produced by Gaston and TD8
Quoting 2000. hydrus:

Another monster..Wonder how many of these we will have this season.




Shhhh, don't give the huracan god any ideas.
Quoting 2003. FOREX:

Is the "coc" of 99L again outrunning the convection? The only spin I see is the naked swirl approaching 82 Longitute, SW of Miami.


Yes... Around 81W 24.2N

30% chance for Hatteras to see TS conditions from TD8

One thing we do have now, the circulation is clear of Cuba. Lets see what it does the next few days before writing it off. The NHC is still interested.
Quoting 2013. FIUStormChaser:



I agree with you, the conditions are just not there for the EURO forecast to verify, and the EURO was one of the models that took 99L as a hurricane into Florida earlier this week. The GFS has actually done a remarkable job with the system at this point, and If 99L were to develop into anything it would be a weak system with the primary threat of flooding in the Gulf Coast. That ULL has been shearing 99L for the last couple of days, and has continued to create the mess that we see on radar and satellite today.


Umm given where and how long 99L has been where it is, happy to see that it has not developed into something more formidable.
From 11AM TWD:
"Based on an evaluation of satellite imagery and data during the past
few days, it appears that the remnants of Tropical Storm Fiona are
not directly responsible for the genesis of this depression. The
Fiona remnants were absorbed into a separate area of pre-existing
vorticity, with the current depression developing out of the
combined system. As a result, this is considered to be a new
tropical cyclone, not a regeneration of a previous tropical
cyclone."
This will clear things out, for sure. The two comments I made are, although they weren't neatly worded, consistent with the comment from NHC.
Quoting 2008. daddyjames:



99L still is not showing much in terms of development, and is not expected to until well into Monday/Tuesday. Also, there is the issue of being able to fly over and into Cuban airspace. Improvement in relations not-with-standing, I believe that we are only allowed that in extremely special circumstances (i.e. a really bigace storm). 99L right now does not qualify.


Yep, development Monday/Tuesday. Last week it was Friday/Saturday. There was also a little hope for Wednesday. So the moral of the story is it might be Wednesday/Thursday this week too.
NOAA HH just tweeted 99l flight a GO. Will be flying low looking for signs of rotation.
See the Circulation?

Quoting 2018. FIUStormChaser:



Yes... Around 81W 24.2N





thats way far W that could be the old center racing away we could have a new center refrom at 23N and 79W



i think that one would die i think the real spin wish is moving march slower is down by 23N 79W wish is march better Organized this AM i really hop noaa gos out this PM so we can really see whats going on oh nos the center may have reform why we watch the old center race a way


99L may look a lot better Organized then you guys think it is i this really hop we get a noaa recon in 99L too help tell whats really going on

Quoting 2021. daddyjames:



Umm given where and how long 99L has been where it is, happy to see that it has not developed into something more formidable.


Agreed
I see 91L has been updated to TD8 .... Ian may get his wish regarding the naming, as 08 seems more likely to become a TS ahead of 99L than the converse ....
000
WTNT43 KNHC 281451
TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

The area of low pressure located west of Bermuda has been producing
intermittent organized deep convection for the last 24 hours or so,
and the convection has increased markedly since 06Z. Given this,
and the well-defined center shown by an overnight ASCAT pass,
advisories are now being initiated on this system as a tropical
cyclone. The initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt based on
the latest Dvorak estimates of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the depression this afternoon.

The environment is only expected to be marginally conducive for
intensification, with moderate southeasterly to easterly shear
expected to become southwesterly and increase further in 36 to 48
hours. As a result, only modest strengthening is shown in the
official forecast, with the depression expected to become a tropical
storm in the next day or two. After that time, the global models
show the cyclone opening up along a frontal zone well offshore of
the northeastern United States. However, there is some disagreement
in when this will occur, with the GFS showing the cyclone
dissipating in about 3 days, and the ECMWF hanging onto it until
around day 5. As a compromise, the NHC forecast shows dissipation
after day 4, but this timing is quite uncertain.

The depression is currently situated south of a mid-level ridge that
extends from the Mid-Atlantic states into the western Atlantic, and
the initial motion estimate is 280/08. The ridge is forecast to
break down and shift eastward during the next 2-3 days, which should
result in the cyclone gradually turning poleward and then recurving
during the next 72 hours. The NHC track forecast is close to a
blend of the GFS and ECMWF models through dissipation. This
forecast keeps the center of the cyclone east of the Outer Banks of
North Carolina, but a tropical storm watch may be needed for that
area later today.

Based on an evaluation of satellite imagery and data during the past
few days, it appears that the remnants of Tropical Storm Fiona are
not directly responsible for the genesis of this depression. The
Fiona remnants were absorbed into a separate area of pre-existing
vorticity, with the current depression developing out of the
combined system. As a result, this is considered to be a new
tropical cyclone, not a regeneration of a previous tropical
cyclone.
Quoting 2024. AtHomeInTX:

NOAA HH just tweeted 99l flight a GO. Will be flying low looking for signs of rotation.



yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes that may be happy now we can tell whats really going with 99L is 99L at 24N and 81W like some think it is or is it at 23N and 79W like i think it is if it is at 23N and 79W and if we have a closed low they could vary well find a TD or TS when they head out
Quoting 2026. thetwilightzone:




thats way far W that could be the old center racing away we could have a new center refrom at 23N and 79W



i think that one would die i think the real spin wish is moving march slower is down by 23N 79W wish is march better Organized this AM i really hop noaa gos out this PM so we can really see whats going on oh nos the center may have reform why we watch the old center race a way


99L may look a lot better Organized then you guys think it is i this really hop we get a noaa recon in 99L too help tell whats really going on

Not seeing much on the surface at that location, that may be the middle level circulation as the strongest 500mb vort is in that area. But the only surface circulation i see that is evident on radar and satellite would be that swirl just SW of Marathon.
Quoting 2032. FIUStormChaser:


Not seeing much on the surface at that location, that may be the middle level circulation as the strongest 500mb vort is in that area. But the only surface circulation i see that is evident on radar and satellite would be that swirl just SW of Marathon.


with noaa now going out today we will see where 99L really is
Keep an eye on the upper level low SW of Gaston, it's siphoning energy from Gaston and getting voricity at the lower levels as talked about by unkowncomic. These do happen once in a few seasons. I remember Patrap catching one in the Gulf a few years back.
Looks like the spin has slowed forward movement (based of last few frames on radar) somewhat SSW of Marathon (in fact, perhaps even due S of Marathon), perhaps waiting for activity to catch up a bit. Also to note on the long range radar from Key West, is the "arm" that extends from well west of the Dry Tortugas south and east over Cuba, and wraps into the heavier shower activity on the east side of that spin signature.

Quoting 1996. Grothar:

That is a strong looking wave about to come off. Remember, from a few days ago, it was named Egadsoblob!






It still is Egadsoblob until proven otherwise.
2037. hydrus
Quoting 2017. daddyjames:



Shhhh, don't give the huracan god any ideas.
I just asked him how many...:)
Quoting 1898. AllBoardedUp:

It amazes me how people on the blog have such good memory when it comes to hurricanes of the past in recalling their characteristics such as path, strength and final outcomes, much like a sports junky who can tell you all of the stats of their favorite team or player, yet these same people can't remember (or choose not to remember) a month ago about the features of a particular storm. Earl did the almost the same thing as 99L is doing as far as not doing what the models and forecasters were predicting and people kept writing it off, yet it developed, albeit a little late and took everyone by surprise. Most people here with differing opinions on Earl ended up agreeing on one final thought. If Earl had more time it could have gotten a little scary for those in its path. As a result, it still ended up causing a lot of destruction from its rain totals.

It seems to me, depending on its final path, 99L might still have enough time over water to develop. I'm just a lurker, and casual observer so I'm not by no means predicting anything at all. Just my two cents. Thanks.
Two things..... 1. Lots of people DIDN'T write off Pre-Earl.... if anything they were excessively gung ho about it, even after all indications based on models were that it would not develop before the W Car ...
2. More importantly, you are no lurker; you just save your pithy comments for moments when they are most useful....
LOL
Patience is a virtue many do not have ....
Quoting 2018. FIUStormChaser:



Yes... Around 81W 24.2N



COC appears to be outrunning convection again
111
ABCD20 KRAZY 281413
TOTALLY FAKE TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS (NO WHERE SPECIAL) DADDYJAMES FORECAST
1030 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Daddyjames Outlook regarding 99L located in the Florida Straights.

A weak area of low pressure located near the north coast of central
Cuba continues to produce a large area of disorganized cloudiness
and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are not conducive for
significant development today while this system moves westward
through the Straits of Florida. Given the forecast for strengthening
of TD08 (see below) and the possible emergence of a strong tropical
wave from the African coast, the gender reassignment surgery
originally scheduled for 99L has hereby been cancelled
.
The NHC still anticipates, that someday environmental conditions will become
favorable and allow 99L to develop, thus the odds still are:
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

Updated: Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure
west-southwest of Bermuda has become a tropical depression, and
advisories on Tropical Depression Eight will be initiated by the NHC
at 11 AM EDT. This potentially could become TS Hermine.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...100 percent
Quoting 2037. hydrus:

I just asked him how many...:)


Care to share?
Padding the numbers as part of the conspiracy...

Kidding... I totally agree with their assessment.
Quoting 2022. Bobbyweather:

From 11AM TWD:
"Based on an evaluation of satellite imagery and data during the past
few days, it appears that the remnants of Tropical Storm Fiona are
not directly responsible for the genesis of this depression. The
Fiona remnants were absorbed into a separate area of pre-existing
vorticity, with the current depression developing out of the
combined system. As a result, this is considered to be a new
tropical cyclone, not a regeneration of a previous tropical
cyclone."
This will clear things out, for sure. The two comments I made are, although they weren't neatly worded, consistent with the comment from NHC.
Quoting 2021. daddyjames:



Umm given where and how long 99L has been where it is, happy to see that it has not developed into something more formidable.
It got the bad side of the Bahamas.... lots of shallow water on that side, like cotton candy versus pasta. OTOH, if it had tracked NW over or just to the east of the archipelago, things may have been rather different.
2046. hydrus
Quoting 2042. daddyjames:



Care to share?
He ..didnt share...He just smiled..
This is the link to our local doppler here in Fort Myers. It's connected to a national system so you can pan around to other parts of the country. If you pan down you can see the Key West doppler for 99L. Thought some here might be interested.

Link


2040. daddyjames
8:07 AM PDT on August 28, 2016



please take that down some on here may think its real and i dont find it funny
Quoting 2036. frank727:



It still is Egadsoblob until proven otherwise.


I think we should initiate a write in campaign to the WHO to include Egadsoblob in the next "E" slot that opens up.
99L is truly pitiful. 91L developed first lol.
Quoting 2039. MrTornadochase:


COC appears to be outrunning convection again

30KT Shear

Quoting 2027. nrtiwlnvragn:





what time are they taking off and how march longer do we have too wait
One on either side! Just a normal day dodging bullets in the mid atlantic.
Quoting 2038. BahaHurican:

Two things..... 1. Lots of people DIDN'T write off Pre-Earl.... if anything they were excessively gung ho about it, even after all indications based on models were that it would not develop before the W Car ...
2. More importantly, you are no lurker; you just save your pithy comments for moments when they are most useful....
LOL
Patience is a virtue many do not have ....


And then there are members like me: Good with Google and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah ;)
Quoting 2034. ElConando:

Keep an eye on the upper level low SW of Gaston, it's siphoning energy from Gaston and getting voricity at the lower levels as talked about by unkowncomic. These do happen once in a few seasons. I remember Patrap catching one in the Gulf a few years back.
Joaquin last year.
Quoting 2048. thetwilightzone:


2040. daddyjames
8:07 AM PDT on August 28, 2016



please take that down some on here may think its real and i dont find it funny


I think that is pretty clear that it is not real. And I am sorry that you don't find it, in the slightest bit, humorous.
Quoting 1750. Grothar:






Ukm is too far north :/
Gaston could potentially become our first major hurricane of the year later today.

Quoting 2051. FIUStormChaser:


30KT Shear




Literally two little bitty spots of shear directly on top of both of our storms. And those are basically the only places
All of the focus on here this week has been on FL and the Gulf Coast, as it probably should have been with the week of will it/won't it hair-pulling watching of 99L.

But the next two weeks will be all about the East Coast
1) TD8 ramped up quickly overnight, will probably be TS Hermine by later today. Current forecast doesn't expect it to reach hurricane strength and it may not even make landfall, and so impacts look to be minimal, hopefully residents in the affected aren't caught off guard by the quick formation and are prepared for at last TS conditions and the associated rainfall.

2) 99L may still form in the GoM, but hasn't that been said all week? If it does manage to get the engine going, could intensify into a hurricane, which is what many of model are showing as it nears the W FL coast between Tampa and the Panhandle. But that's not all, the tracks also suggest that it too could have a impact on NC



3) And then, the potential doomsday scenario begins to unfold as a strong wave emerges from Africa and is expected to make a long nearly due W track, intensifying along the way. No need to start a panic on a forecast 2 weeks out, but instead of the make-me-go-cross-eyed 99L watching, this one my be more of the heart sinking beautiful but dangerous historic monsters



My gut instinct on that last one hearkens back to this memorable storm
Link
Quoting 2046. hydrus:

He ..didnt share...He just smiled..


That Sugar eating grin that says "Ohh, you wait and see".
Good morning everyone. I see we could be looking at a buffet of tropical systems in the Atlantic soon. With that in mind, breakfast's on the sideboard: French toast smothered in maple syrup and powdered sugar, western omelettes, thick slices of Canadian bacon, breakfast potatoes, assorted muffins, fresh fruit, orange juice, coffee. Enjoy :-)
It's there, but not much convection at the moment near the LLC.
Quoting 2052. thetwilightzone:



what time are they taking off and how march longer do we have too wait


Link
2065. 62901IL
deleted
the minor blob by texas is acquiring feeder bands
2067. ChiThom
Quoting 1928. aquak9:

"I peeked at the storm because it had reached it's peak- this storm has my interest piqued. "


I hav prefect speling and sintaks. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I guess this isn't a spelling blog.
"Too soon vee get olt, too late shmart"
2068. hydrus
Quoting 2045. BahaHurican:

It got the bad side of the Bahamas.... lots of shallow water on that side, like cotton candy versus pasta. OTOH, if it had tracked NW over or just to the east of the archipelago, things may have been rather different.
yep...There is no place on Earth like the Bahamas..Geologically speaking..Can be very dangerous, especially the further S.E. one goes...Believe me I know...
Quoting 1996. Grothar:

That is a strong looking wave about to come off. Remember, from a few days ago, it was named Egadsoblob!






Hopefully will come off south of the CV islands.
Enough of these maybe & perhaps storm projections. Its football season ladies & gentlemen - preparations to be done starting already.
Quoting 2029. BahaHurican:

I see 91L has been updated to TD8 .... Ian may get his wish regarding the naming, as 08 seems more likely to become a TS ahead of 99L than the converse ....
99L will be a weak system.I just don't see this thing getting anywhere near hurricane intensity as shear has not subsided and dry air continues to be a problem.I'm not exactly sure why the Euro is gung ho about it and has been wrong with this system thus far.Good news though for many people in the panhandle of Florida.Ian from may have to wait until 2022.


this looks like a GA and NC land fall




yep 1st land fall in GA then 2nd land fall i both SC and NC




NC may see TD 8 and may be 99L
2073. hydrus
Quoting 2062. lobdelse81:

Good morning everyone. I see we could be looking at a buffet of tropical systems in the Atlantic soon. With that in mind, breakfast's on the sideboard: French toast smothered in maple syrup and powdered sugar, western omelettes, thick slices of Canadian bacon, breakfast potatoes, assorted muffins, fresh fruit, orange juice, coffee. Enjoy :-)
May I have omelettes and fruit please..
Different periods. Slightly different directions. Probably similar size.

Will probably mess up the form of most of the set waves unfortunately. "Cross ups" and "double ups" that dump all at once I'm guessing. Low tide they will be closing out on the sandbar. High tide they will roll all the way to the beach and shorebreak. In between tides probably best and long lulls between sets. Somewhere will be good but there will be a lot of driving around trying to find that somewhere.


Quoting 2016. win1gamegiantsplease:

Wonder what interference pattern sets up regarding the waves being produced by Gaston and TD8
Quoting 2045. BahaHurican:

It got the bad side of the Bahamas.... lots of shallow water on that side, like cotton candy versus pasta. OTOH, if it had tracked NW over or just to the east of the archipelago, things may have been rather different.


yes, unfortunately the US centric approach exhibited here neglects that there are folks, like you, that inhabit The Bahamas.
Key West Webcams





Quoting 1894. muddertracker:

Just out of curiosity, how many routes are there out of the outer banks? What exactly is it? Is it one connected piece of land like Long Island, or is it a bunch of connected smaller ones? Just curious.

I think if I'm not mistaken, okracoke is only accessible by ferry. Cape hatteras area has connections to mainland that would be used. They are definitely broken up islands. That being said, when evacuations get issued, it will get harder to get off hatteras with everyone heading to that land bridge
the 12z has started
Omg not even a single drop so far.

Only hurricanes can bring us some rain lol
Just saw a news alert on my phone that tropical depression numbe 8 has formed. Which invest is now a depression ? I'm at work right now and can't do a lot of searching. Thanks
2081. Tcwx2
91L.
Quoting 2080. lurkersince2008:

Just saw a news alert on my phone that tropical depression numbe 8 has formed. Which invest is now a depression . I'm at work right now.
TD 8
Quoting 2080. lurkersince2008:

Just saw a news alert on my phone that tropical depression numbe 8 has formed. Which invest is now a depression . I'm at work right now.
Quoting 2080. lurkersince2008:

Just saw a news alert on my phone that tropical depression numbe 8 has formed. Which invest is now a depression . I'm at work right now.

91L is now a depression
2085. FOREX
Quoting 2080. lurkersince2008:

Just saw a news alert on my phone that tropical depression numbe 8 has formed. Which invest is now a depression . I'm at work right now.
NEAR THE CAROLINAS
2086. BayFog

Gaston doing its impression of an actual eye.
Quoting 2080. lurkersince2008:

Just saw a news alert on my phone that tropical depression numbe 8 has formed. Which invest is now a depression . I'm at work right now.


The ghost of FIona - 91L
Quoting 2058. CybrTeddy:

Gaston could potentially become our first major hurricane of the year later today.


We live in hope .... NHC has been studiously avoiding forecasting a major since the ULL fiasco last week ...
Quoting 2072. thetwilightzone:



this looks like a GA and NC land fall

src="http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mode ls/gfs/2016082806/gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_48.png">


yep 1st land fall in GA then 2nd land fall i both SC and NC

/gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_50.png">


NC may see TD 8 and may be 99L
Actually that looks like an Abaco / Grand Bahama landfall, followed by GA / SC ....
The most interesting thing about this for me ATM is that GFS has moved this up to 300 hrs. If it's still showing something similar at 240 hours I may become attentive....
2089. Patrap
Quoting 2063. Sfloridacat5:

It's there, but not much convection at the moment near the LLC.



As has been typical with 99L, it's due to lack of proper vertical alignment, The 700 and 500 mb vorticity is off to the southeast where the deeper convection is. If 99L actually manages to become vertically stacked, I think it would have no problem become a TS. But it has struggled terribly to do so all of it's life thus far, leaving me skeptical.

Still though, we can't write it off until it's gone, and while it is still poorly organized, the 700 and 500 mb vorticity are closer to the low level center than they were the last few days, so while it's still far from being a depression, it has improved a little.
Quoting 2088. BahaHurican:

We live in hope .... NHC has been studiously avoiding forecasting a major since the ULL fiasco last week ...
Actually that looks like an Abaco / Grand Bahama landfall, followed by GA / SC ....
The most interesting thing about this for me ATM is that GFS has moved this up to 300 hrs. If it's still showing something similar at 240 hours I may become attentive....


As I said earlier . . . .
DaddyJames, you are hysterical. Too bad this blog is prone to having a case of the "sensitives," as my Dad would say.
Quoting 2075. daddyjames:



yes, unfortunately the US centric approach exhibited here neglects that there are folks, like you, that inhabit The Bahamas.
To be fair, only a few of the regulars act like the Caribbean and the Bahamas / TCI are speed bumps on the road to the US ....
Quoting 2083. FIUStormChaser:




Starting to slowly get that look. Nice feed from the moisture in the central GOMEX as well from the southeast and east. It's getting there. Continues this route... Could see TD 9 by the end of day today as well (although not extremely likely, a distinct possibility however)
Gaston is putting on a a amazing show right now! a 120mph peak seems like it could happen.
Quoting 2093. BahaHurican:

To be fair, only a few of the regulars act like the Caribbean and the Bahamas / TCI are speed bumps on the road to the US ....



Lets mount a campaign to edumacate the others, that - yes, indeed - The Bahamas are land, and people there are impacted. Usually much more than locations in the US.
Quoting 2091. daddyjames:



As I said earlier . . . .
It's taz.... I recognize his focused approach .... lol ....
Quoting 2095. washingtonian115:

Gaston is putting on a a amazing show right now! a 120mph peak seems like it could happen.


Your favorite kind of storm! It is an impressive looking storm!
2099. LargoFl
2100. Patrap
2101. K8eCane
Quoting 2098. RavensFan:



Your favorite kind of storm! It is an impressive looking storm!



RavensFan arent you in NC?
A few days ago, these were the computer models for Gaston:

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 10 minutes ago

GFS is trending farther west into the Gulf of Mexico with #99L. Significance is more time over water to develop.

2105. Patrap





Quoting 2092. muddertracker:

DaddyJames, you are hysterical. Too bad this blog is prone to having a case of the "sensitives," as my Dad would say.
Meaning?
Quoting 2096. daddyjames:



Lets mount a campaign to edumacate the others, that - yes, indeed - The Bahamas are land, and people there are impacted. Usually much more than locations in the US.
As I said, most people who post here regularly are pretty knowledgeable about the hurricane zone countries, and we learn a lot from each other when a particular area is impacted. I like the way people put up topo maps and other geographical info when a storm is approaching. As for the others, we're all here to learn something. A little anecdotal information sharing never hurts ...
2107. Patrap
I know this music.


I've danced to it before.


2108. BayFog

Invest approaching Hawaii from the south, Madeline and Lester churning closer from the east.
now that TD 8 has formed and could be Hermine, then the disturbance over Africa appears set to be Ian. This could be quite a September hurricane, hope it is not another Ivan. The only difference the V has been ommitted
Quoting 2088. BahaHurican:

We live in hope .... NHC has been studiously avoiding forecasting a major since the ULL fiasco last week ...
Actually that looks like an Abaco / Grand Bahama landfall, followed by GA / SC ....
The most interesting thing about this for me ATM is that GFS has moved this up to 300 hrs. If it's still showing something similar at 240 hours I may become attentive....


If it develops way before it reaches the islands and follows the same track, it would be nearly identical to Hugo and Fran.
12Z GFS so far splits 99L's vorticity in two- the main portion in the GOM and then another one crossing FL and then off the SE coast.

Quoting 2106. BahaHurican:

Meaning?
As I said, most people who post here regularly are pretty knowledgeable about the hurricane zone countries, and we learn a lot from each other when a particular area is impacted. I like the way people put up topo maps and other geographical info when a storm is approaching. As for the others, we're all here to learn something. A little anecdotal information sharing never hurts ...

I was referring to his "NHC forecast spoof." Sorry for the confusion.
Quoting 2107. Patrap:

I know this music.


I've danced to it before.



[sigh].... too true ....
Think I'll go do some stuff and come back when it's too hot outside [i.e. within an hour .... lol ....]
Quoting 2098. RavensFan:



Your favorite kind of storm! It is an impressive looking storm!
Yes it is! It will really help boost the ACE this season as well.
The Euro doesn't develop 99L for 3 more days, then the system really starts to strengthen quickly. But even the Euro keeps 99L weak for 3 more days (until,Wednesday/Thursday).
Quoting 2106. BahaHurican:

Meaning?
As I said, most people who post here regularly are pretty knowledgeable about the hurricane zone countries, and we learn a lot from each other when a particular area is impacted. I like the way people put up topo maps and other geographical info when a storm is approaching. As for the others, we're all here to learn something. A little anecdotal information sharing never hurts ...


That I should be touring the comedy circuit?

I know, but people focused on their location of interest in FLorida, of which I have one, often dismiss when a forecast of "only affecting the Bahamas". What peeps don't necessarily comprehend is that, given the geographical spread, how low lying the islands are, and that everything has to be shipped in; any recovery efforts take longer and are much more challenging logistically.
Quoting 2107. Patrap:

I know this music.


I've danced to it before.





Is it the dance of the sugarplum crows? lol
2118. Cogonc1
Someone poked it again

000
FXUS62 KTAE 281428
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1028 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016


.PREV DISCUSSION [623 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

Although the models are in much better agreement this past run,
there still remains much uncertainty with the evolution of the
tropical disturbance which will be crossing the Florida Keys and
entering the southeast Gulf of Mexico tonight. The latest GFS and
ECMWF tracks the low slowly west northwestward through Tuesday. The
ECMWF solution shows a 1003 mb low roughly 370 miles south of
Pensacola and the GFS a 1007 mb low 300 miles south of Pensacola
at 00z Wed. Still far enough away to have minimal impact on our
local weather through the short term. Monday will see another day
with low PoPs (~20%) for late August as the deep easterly flow
continues. On Tuesday, the models show deep layer moisture surging
northward up the Florida Peninsula on the east side of the
tropical disturbance. The deepest moisture may only reach the
southeast Big Bend by late Tuesday so PoPs will be tapered 20%
northwest to 50-60% for the far southeast. Temps will still be at
or above seasonal levels with highs in the lower to mid 90s.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

The upper ridge centered over the mid-Atlantic states and
responsible for the easterly flow across our region the past several
days is forecast to break down as a trough digs down the eastern
seaboard.As the trough deepens, both the GFS and ECMWF show the
tropical system in the gulf lifting to the north then northeast
entering Apalachee Bay late Thursday and making landfall across the
southeast Big Bend Thursday night.
The EURO solution shows a
stronger system than the GFS. While the models are in much better
agreement, this solution may change multiple times
so we are
advising all interests in the local region, especially coastal
residents to monitor the development of this system closely. For
now we are showing some increase in showers and thunderstorms
by the middle to late week, mainly for the Florida zones, but
this could change significantly as we move through the upcoming
week.
Quoting 2105. Patrap:









It looks like the spaghetti plots have really got this one figured out!
GFS seems to be the most realistic solution
Quoting 2100. Patrap:


May be the shear from North to South (from the ULL) over the Florida Peninsula is subsiding a bit you can see more of the clouds raising from east to west and more convention,just my opinion,
Quoting 2110. win1gamegiantsplease:



If it develops way before it reaches the islands and follows the same track, it would be nearly identical to Hugo and Fran.
That's part of the reason I haven't been like ... OMG ... feels too much like model deja vu to me. I've seen the GFS do this frequently enough not to be impressed.

OTOH, if we're in the 10 - 7 day period and the GFS is still moving it up, then.... well I'll start paying attention. GFS has shown enough skill at that time period this season for me to at least put an eye on it ....
Everyone keeps saying the windshear is going to lighten, but so far the only consistent observed factor is the windshear hasn't lowered.

This is why 99L is such a disorganized mess... I guess the windshear models need improving as well?
Quoting 2120. Sharkicane:



It looks like the spaghetti plots have really got this one figured out!


happy that the HWRF typically is not accurate in intensity beyond 72-96 hours. Hope that is the case with this one as well.
Quoting 2124. Doom2pro:

Everyone keeps saying the windshear is going to lighten, but so far the only consistent observed factor is the windshear hasn't lowered.

This is why 99L is such a disorganized mess... I guess the windshear models need improving as well?


Land interaction played a huge role in this as well.
2127. Patrap
There are plenty of nhc tutorials on the models on the net.


Reading them is a personal option.


🌉 🎑 🌎

Another step forward for Gaston (will it last?) :

CIMSS ADT analysis link
The battle continues..
I have learned so much by reading your informative posts of the years. Your discussion and quality links to visual representations of the current happenings have helped me understand the difference from Sal's Pizza and the SAL. I really do not have much in the way to add to a very knowledgeable group but thanks to all.

This 99L has driven me crazy enough to create an account. What a maddening storm to predict. The punishing northern shear makes me finally vote for this never ending area of investigation to finally come to a not so pleasant end.



I believe GFS is more organized with 99L on this run and it is showing stronger vorticity into Florida big bend

Quoting 2126. daddyjames:



Land interaction played a huge role in this as well.


I've seen so many tropical storms and hurricanes intensify in those same locations. The Bahamas and Florida Straits are one of the best areas for storm intensification if the other conditions are favorable.
If conditions were favorable 99L would have exploded in the Florida Straits (it would be exploding right now).
Dr. Postel on TWC gave props to the NHC for saying that 99L would never develop until it got into the GOM. Hmmm, I respectfully disagree. A week ago it was at 80% because of favorable conditions in the Bahamas.
What is going on with the Tropics all of a sudden? XD We got a Typhoon a Tropical Storm 2 hurricanes and an Investigation Area
Quoting 2112. muddertracker:


I was referring to his "NHC forecast spoof." Sorry for the confusion.
Ah..... that DJ .... I think he's auditioning for a spot as a writer at xkcd .... lol ...
Quoting 2116. daddyjames:



That I should be touring the comedy circuit?
You betcha.....
:o)
Quoting 2123. BahaHurican:

That's part of the reason I haven't been like ... OMG ... feels too much like model deja vu to me. I've seen the GFS do this frequently enough not to be impressed.

OTOH, if we're in the 10 - 7 day period and the GFS is still moving it up, then.... well I'll start paying attention. GFS has shown enough skill at that time period this season for me to at least put an eye on it ....


the fact that all the models currently are putting it in your neck of the woods shows that the environmental steering pattern is pretty much what it will be. Intensity/development - that remains to be seen.
2137. Grothar
Quoting 2122. Hurricane1956:

May be the shear from North to South (from the ULL) over the Florida Peninsula is subsiding a bit you can see more of the clouds raising from east to west and more convention,just my opinion,


That may be right. And also seems as if that ULL near the upper TX coast is beginning to dampen/fill a bit
2139. Patrap
Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Click image for loop

2140. IDTH

Heavy duty rainstorm in Ft. Pierce, Fl. Wind blowing rain sideways. Nice to be inside and not out in this. Probably a short-lived squall, but am sure it is a portent of more to come later today.
Quoting 2130. lurkNoMore:

I have learned so much by reading your informative posts of the years. Your discussion and quality links to visual representations of the current happenings have helped me understand the difference from Sal's Pizza and the SAL. I really do not have much in the way to add to a very knowledgeable group but thanks to all.

This 99L has driven me crazy enough to create an account. What a maddening storm to predict. The punishing northern shear makes me finally vote for this never ending area of investigation to finally come to a not so pleasant end.




Welcome to the blog .... looking forward to your contributions in the future. Which part do you hail from?
2143. Patrap
Today's Atlantic is a perfect example why the NHC never uses the term pre anything.


Only the circle of duh, does it here.


🌐🌐
Quoting 2140. IDTH:





Both the Euro and the GFS keep 99L over the GOM for many days. The Euro develops the system on Wednesday/Thursday while the GFS doesn't do anything (keeps the low weak).
Quoting 2107. Patrap:

I know this music.


I've danced to it before.


Dancing to dirges is definitely not unheard of in your neck of the woods Pat.
2146. GatorWX
Quoting 2107. Patrap:

I know this music.


I've danced to it before.





Twinkle, twinkle little star.....

Conjurs up that Martha and the Vandellas song, 99, at this stage. But, will it or won't it?
Quoting 2137. Grothar:


Oooo .... nice....
OK. So, if the BAM suite has a shallow layer, medium layer and deep layer, wouldn't it be better at tracking? If the BAM suite clusters tightly together wouldn't that, logically, indicate a good track?
My imagination or does it seem like the old swirl that was S and SW of Marathon has dampened out and may be a new one forming in the convection SE of Marathon?
2150. K8eCane
Quoting 2127. Patrap:

There are plenty of nhc tutorials on the models on the net.


Reading them is a personal option.


🌉 🎑 🌎




There are a FEW people on here that i treat as a "model" when something is near and you are one of them. That being said, I know we must always turn to NHC for official info
2151. Gearsts
2152. Patrap
Approx 24N 83W


Dvorak Pickle is a tad west of my fix.


2153. Kyon5
Quoting 2151. Gearsts:


Much more south.
2154. SSL1441
Quoting 2129. bayoubug:

The battle continues..


Upper level lows everywhere!
2155. IDTH
Quoting 2129. bayoubug:

The battle continues..

Looks like the ULL to it's north is moving slight north but mostly west. Looks like it could be out of the way but who knows.

Somebody here pointed out the ULL in the atlantic by the greater Antilles and it is starting to develop some lower level vorticity.



Still a lot of upper level vorticity though

Quoting 2116. daddyjames:



That I should be touring the comedy circuit?

If you do that, be aware that the comedy circuit is surprisingly stuffy, so wear pants. Learn from my mistake...but really do people want a good Donald Duck impression or don't they?

I agree with your other point as well. 99L isn't a huge threat that commands every iota of our attention, nor TD8, or even Gaston since it is a fish storm for the foreseeable future.
2157. Gearsts
Quoting 2123. BahaHurican:

That's part of the reason I haven't been like ... OMG ... feels too much like model deja vu to me. I've seen the GFS do this frequently enough not to be impressed.

OTOH, if we're in the 10 - 7 day period and the GFS is still moving it up, then.... well I'll start paying attention. GFS has shown enough skill at that time period this season for me to at least put an eye on it ....


Absolutely, it's about recognizing model trends and consensus this far out. We have plenty of time, well as GTCaleb pointed out you islanders have a little less of it, to watch. Finally starting to see pretty systems out there. Gaston, Lionrock, Lester, maybe TD8. It's the most wonderful time of the year (until it isn't).
2159. Patrap
It was 11 years ago this hour,I was alone with Nova,my Sherman Shepherd.

Preps were almost completed for K,...my wife and and children had evacuated.


My neghborhood is west of the 17 the canal.


I would not see my family again till September's 16th.


19 days later.



Never root for calamity.



Karma will find you.

🎑
2160. sigh
Quoting 2137. Grothar:



Yep, once again, there's a meaningless blob of convection far removed from the LLC. This must be at least the 20th time we've seen this with 99L.
A substantial hurricane knocking out power to the southeast coast this time of year would be dreadful, especially with what Savannah has seen in high temperatures.
2162. LBAR
Quoting 2069. CaribBoy:



Hopefully will come off south of the CV islands.

If it doesn't get some latitude (they generally do before leaving Africa), it'll have a hard time developing once it does emerge.
Quoting 2147. BahaHurican:

Oooo .... nice....


See now that is looking a lot like TD8 there
Center just made landfall in the Keys!
2165. Keys99
Little wind and rain so far today at my location 10 miles east of Key West. Actually got a lot of yard work done Today. Looks to be a little bit windy and wet for the afternoon and evening perfect napping weather.
2166. Gearsts
Quoting 2132. Sfloridacat5:



I've seen so many tropical storms and hurricanes intensify in those same locations. The Bahamas and Florida Straits are one of the best areas for storm intensification if the other conditions are favorable.
If conditions were favorable 99L would have exploded in the Florida Straits (it would be exploding right now).


But the midlevel circulation got entangled with Hispaniola/Cuba and has not been able to free itself as long as the LLC was riding the coast of Cuba. Combined with the drier air at mid-levels and the shear, it never was able to get anything going.
As it pulls off the to N and W, the circulations have the opportunity to possibly stack. That being said, there still is shear evident in the Eastern GOM - so it is going to be just how fast the LLC moves in relation to the mid-level circulation. When the LLC slows to a halt, that is when things potentially could get interesting.

If 99L had not tripped over PR, fallen on top of Hispaniola, this would be an entirely different storm, even with the shear and dry air that was present.
Quoting 2160. sigh:


Yep, once again, there's a meaningless blob of convection far removed from the LLC. This must be at least the 20th time we've seen this with 99L.


This is the 1st of those 20 blobs that has formed while the LLC has been clear of any landmass. That could mean it is not so meaningless
Quoting 2139. Patrap:

Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Click image for loop



You can see the corn popping on that loop,
Quoting 2160. sigh:


Yep, once again, there's a meaningless blob of convection far removed from the LLC. This must be at least the 20th time we've seen this with 99L.


Only dependent upon how many times you look. 100th time for me ;)
Quoting 2157. Gearsts:




Land interaction on this run may be a problem.
2172. SLU
"Hermine/Ian/Julia" much further south on the 12z GFS


Quoting 2159. Patrap:

It was 11 years ago this hour,I was alone with Nova,my Sherman Shepherd.

Preps were almost completed for K,...my wife and and children had evacuated.


My neghborhood is west of the 17 the canal.


I would not see my family again till September's 16th.


19 days later.



Never root for calamity.



Karma will find you.

🎑
Quoting 2159. Patrap:



Amen Pat!!!
Long Range Radar

2175. IDTH
2176. K8eCane



Quoting 2159. Patrap:

It was 11 years ago this hour,I was alone with Nova,my Sherman Shepherd.

Preps were almost completed for K,...my wife and and children had evacuated.


My neghborhood is west of the 17 the canal.


I would not see my family again till September's 16th.


19 days later.



Never root for calamity.



Karma will find you.

🎑


Words of Wisdom there buddy
Euro and GFS so far agree on 99L strengthening up the East Coast. This is 12z GFS in a week

Local Key West Radar

2179. Patrap
Quoting 2148. muddertracker:

OK. So, if the BAM suite has a shallow layer, medium layer and deep layer, wouldn't it be better at tracking? If the BAM suite clusters tightly together wouldn't that, logically, indicate a good track?


BAM suite tightly clustered indicates a low shear environment.
2181. ncstorm
So if I'm reading this correctly the UKMET is showing a TD8 intensifying into a hurricane..

and 99L is listed below as well..

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 31.3N 69.7W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 28.08.2016 31.3N 69.7W WEAK

00UTC 29.08.2016 32.0N 71.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 29.08.2016 32.7N 73.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 30.08.2016 33.5N 75.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 30.08.2016 34.0N 76.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 31.08.2016 34.7N 76.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 31.08.2016 35.6N 75.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 01.09.2016 36.7N 73.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 01.09.2016 38.6N 69.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 02.09.2016 41.9N 63.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 02.09.2016 45.5N 58.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 03.09.2016 47.8N 52.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 03.09.2016 50.8N 43.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 26.1N 88.0W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 01.09.2016 26.6N 86.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 02.09.2016 27.4N 86.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 02.09.2016 28.3N 84.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 03.09.2016 29.1N 82.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 03.09.2016 30.0N 79.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

Quoting 2180. nrtiwlnvragn:



BAM suite tightly clustered indicates a low shear environment.


That makes sense! So, conversely, a spread out BAM suite would indicate the opposite? Cool. I learned something new today!
the deeper convection and associated 700 and 500 mb vorticity are attempting to become better aligned with the low level center over the past several hours, the Key West radar shows the progress pretty well.

Give the shear in place though, it's difficult to say whether it will be able to keep pulling it off.

Also, models show development conditions improving as it moves into the open gulf tomorrow, at the same time, a few days ago, models showed the same thing for near the Bahamas and the straights, and that turned out to not be true. Given that, everything has to be approached cautiously, and the best result is that 99L should neither be given much certainty in development, nor should it be written off.
lol wow
Quoting 2135. BahaHurican:

Ah..... that DJ .... I think he's auditioning for a spot as a writer at xkcd .... lol ...
You betcha.....
:o)


Please, please no applause - just throw money.
Radar out of Key West to me is showing that 99L is slowly getting its act together.
2187. Patrap



She's running for da straits.


We gonna have us a Cape Verde spinner in da Gom chief!


Quoting 2184. washingtonian115:

lol wow



00Z EURO and 12Z GFS agree on several things.
2190. ncstorm
12z CMC Landfall

Quoting 2181. ncstorm:

So if I'm reading this correctly the UKMET is showing a TD8 intensifying into a hurricane..

and 99L is listed below as well..
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T 90 : 26.1N 88.0W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 01.09.2016 26.6N 86.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 02.09.2016 27.4N 86.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 02.09.2016 28.3N 84.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 03.09.2016 29.1N 82.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 03.09.2016 30.0N 79.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY




Has anyone counted just how many of those the UKMET has thrown out for 99L? I wonder when it first started?
At this point, its like the boy crying "wolf" or the guy carrying the sign "The End is Near". Yes, eventually they'll be right.
Quoting 2172. SLU:

"Hermine/Ian/Julia" much further south on the 12z GFS





yep now inline with todays 00Z CMC yesterday 12Z CMC yesterday 00Z CMC



2193. SLU
CaribBoyyyyyy!!!!

Georges pt.2

Quoting 2186. Hurricanes101:

Radar out of Key West to me is showing that 99L is slowly getting its act together.



and good news is that noaa recon is going out today
Omg yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeees :) Yes yes yes yes. Lol
About to go major.
Looks like a lot of dry air moving across Florida. Even with the recent flair up of convection, looks like any development will be slow. 99 sure has been giving the models a work out. There are so many interesting things to observe in the Atlantic, however, the Blog tends toward 99, urging it to develop. I suppose people have a tendency to root for the underdog.
2199. Patrap
Quoting 2182. muddertracker:



That makes sense! So, conversely, a spread out BAM suite would indicate the opposite? Cool. I learned something new today!



Every run gives us insight.


Weaker,mo west in time then to the nw...and the others to the right,are a stronger,deeper storm,thus more poleward faster,that gets shunted Ne in time.


The lines all have a say.

Quoting 2189. Climate175:




xD
2201. K8eCane
FROM WILMINGTON NC NWS

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...Light winds to prevail this period but an
increase in sea heights is likely, due to swell waves from Fiona
and Gaston, with only a light wind chop expected both days. Seas
should hold in a 3-4 ft range this period but 5 ft outer portion
in E-SE swell. Wave faces will not be steep. Showers and isolated
TSTMS are expected Monday and Tuesday, as former Fiona approaches
the 0-20 NM waters but stalls offshore late Monday and Tuesday
before moving north toward or offshore of the outer banks of NC.
No advisories this period but remember that winds and waves are
always higher in and near TSTMS.

I dont like the " stalls offshore" part. To borrow Pats words. Ive danced this dance before
Quoting 2186. Hurricanes101:

Radar out of Key West to me is showing that 99L is slowly getting its act together.


If I had a dollar for every time I've heard that my student loans would be [presto!] history.

Quoting 2184. washingtonian115:

lol wow



Looks like it stalls off of Cape Lookout. If it is south of Hatteras, you're looking at water easily over the 26.5C threshold for sustaining a tropical system.
Quoting 2159. Patrap:

It was 11 years ago this hour,I was alone with Nova,my Sherman Shepherd.

Preps were almost completed for K,...my wife and and children had evacuated.


My neghborhood is west of the 17 the canal.


I would not see my family again till September's 16th.


19 days later.



Never root for calamity.



Karma will find you.

🎑
I keep trying too kill it pat but the nhc wont give up the ghost I don't see things getting to nasty well I hope anyway
Quoting 2172. SLU:

"Hermine/Ian/Julia" much further south on the 12z GFS





Now hopefully it's not a repeat of 97L and 99L :\
Quoting 2154. SSL1441:



Upper level lows everywhere!



This is Remarkable! Just blowing up over us in the BVIs- thunderstorms right now.
Quoting 2195. CaribBoy:

Omg yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeees :) Yes yes yes yes. Lol


That's too far out to get your hopes up.

Plus, be careful what you wish for...
Quoting 2197. VegasRain:

About to go major.

Gaston looking good!
2208. IDTH
Watch the HWRF in the super immediate short range and it will give us clues as to what the structure will look like on satellite. This is what the 0z had initialized at this time of the day





Watch these 12 hour trends closely. Look to see if the structure looks like this in 12 hours.

Wonder how disappointed Washi would be if 08 became Hermine and 99L became Ian... lol
Quoting 2195. CaribBoy:

Omg yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeees :) Yes yes yes yes. Lol


Fantasy Land:(
What's that Florida ull predicted to do? Clouds and rain squalls coming from the east, seems it's not affecting 99l much.
Quoting 2193. SLU:

CaribBoyyyyyy!!!!

Georges pt.2




Yes!!!! :)

Hopefully the GFS won't weaken it too much or it could be another 97 or 99L :(( Dry air shear blablabla :///
September will be a month to remember. many disturbances forecast to develop
2216. Patrap
Earlier

Ok my NC people. Come out of the shadows!
PAIN IN THE 99L
2219. ncstorm
Maps are in for 12z UKMET

TD8


99L


Good Morning Class!from Americas Left Coast. I see that if my Google Earth is working correctly that AF-303 is 400 miles or so from TD 8. Always love the HH Teams doing dangerous but needed tasks to collect data to help protect lives and property for citizens around the world. Just ask Dr Masters about his experiences on board those aircraft. Kudos to them and the risks that they take for us! Maybe we will have a TS? Have a great day all!
2221. Patrap
Earlier

Quoting 2204. CaribBoy:



Now hopefully it's not a repeat of 97L and 99L :\


has a weakening storm over Hispaniola
12Z UKMET dropped the East Atlantic system


Quoting 2210. Bucsboltsfan:



Fantasy Land:(


Better than 360h away :)
Quoting 2205. BettinaGH:




This is Remarkable! Just blowing up over us in the BVIs- thunderstorms right now.

Hasn't wrapped around central circulations yet. We will see what the planes say. Its like looking somewhat healthy though
Quoting 2209. Articuno:

Wonder how disappointed Washi would be if 08 became Hermine and 99L became Ian... lol


thats the way it is going too happen lol
I know you want your storm but I value my family,life,sanity,and property.These things are fun to track while they are strong OTS but not when they crash into land.
The ULL north of the islands may give those islands some rain and wind as it moves further south.
2229. IDTH
Quoting 2181. ncstorm:

So if I'm reading this correctly the UKMET is showing a TD8 intensifying into a hurricane..

and 99L is listed below as well..

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 31.3N 69.7W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 28.08.2016 31.3N 69.7W WEAK

00UTC 29.08.2016 32.0N 71.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 29.08.2016 32.7N 73.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 30.08.2016 33.5N 75.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 30.08.2016 34.0N 76.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 31.08.2016 34.7N 76.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 31.08.2016 35.6N 75.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 01.09.2016 36.7N 73.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 01.09.2016 38.6N 69.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 02.09.2016 41.9N 63.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 02.09.2016 45.5N 58.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 03.09.2016 47.8N 52.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 03.09.2016 50.8N 43.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 26.1N 88.0W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 01.09.2016 26.6N 86.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 02.09.2016 27.4N 86.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 02.09.2016 28.3N 84.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 03.09.2016 29.1N 82.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 03.09.2016 30.0N 79.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY



Ukmet or HWRF? lol
Quoting 2213. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

07L



AKA Hurricane Gaston
We really have to thank the unexpected shear intensity for keeping 99l at bay. IF it would have decreased to what was expected over the last 48hrs we could have a different system on our hands as it's crossing the keys. I'm interested if 12z euro follows 12 gfs, and similar to 0z euro yesterday.
Good morning everyone. I imagine 91L would develop first than 99L as how thing were going. I am expecting TD8 to be upgrade to ts Hermine when recon reach it in the afternoon. 99L might become a ts when hitting Florida and maybe a cat 1 before brushing NC. Told you washi expected the unexpected on the tropic and a cat 1 is better than a weak ts. I knew and I told it a few blogs back that there would be a fishpinner near Bermuda that would steal the name of Hermine. This looks like another year that the name Hermine would not be used for a hurricane. Anyways I am rooting for the wave leaving Africa in becoming Julia. Imo better name than Ian.
Quoting 2198. wxsample:

Looks like a lot of dry air moving across Florida. Even with the recent flair up of convection, looks like any development will be slow. 99 sure has been giving the models a work out. There are so many interesting things to observe in the Atlantic, however, the Blog tends toward 99, urging it to develop. I suppose people have a tendency to root for the underdog.

Mostly only at 500 mb and above, the air is very moist below that, also model support shows deep layered saturation across the eastern gulf and FL by tomorrow and Tuesday. And this is believable, because the upper levels can change quick, and moisture changes can occur much faster in the upper levels, and give the air is very moist below 500 mb, there's no reason to believe guidance is wrong.

The biggest issue will be shear and the struggle with vertical stacking, also associated with the shear issue.
2234. IDTH
Quoting 2217. hurrikanehunter14:

Ok my NC people. Come out of the shadows!

I'm here, just in the mountains now.
2235. K8eCane
Quoting 2217. hurrikanehunter14:

Ok my NC people. Come out of the shadows!



RAISES HAND! Am Here!
2236. BayFog
Quoting 2139. Patrap:

Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Click image for loop



Looking good for future development out in the Gulf.
2237. Gearsts
SLU
how strong is that ridge and how far west does it go ?. if it is very strong and goes further west, then the some caribbean islands could seriously be impacted.
Quoting 2214. CaribBoy:



Yes!!!! :)

Hopefully the GFS won't weaken it too much or it could be another 97 or 99L :(( Dry air shear blablabla :///


GFS has a weakening storm over Hispaniola



runs the whole Hispaniola and then landfall SE Cuba

Tide is running a little higher now in Galveston.
2241. IDTH
Quoting 2209. Articuno:

Wonder how disappointed Washi would be if 08 became Hermine and 99L became Ian... lol

Julia still sounds plenty scary to me.
Azores should keep an eye out for Gaston
The ULL should give some rain to the NE portion of the islands. Remember, these ULLs can at times work their way down to the surface and this one in particular is starting to show a surface reflection.

Remember that Joaquin developed from a ULL last year and was 1mph away from a Cat 5.
2244. WxLogic
Quoting 2183. Jedkins01:

the deeper convection and associated 700 and 500 mb vorticity are attempting to become better aligned with the low level center over the past several hours, the Key West radar shows the progress pretty well.

Give the shear in place though, it's difficult to say whether it will be able to keep pulling it off.

Also, models show development conditions improving as it moves into the open gulf tomorrow, at the same time, a few days ago, models showed the same thing for near the Bahamas and the straights, and that turned out to not be true. Given that, everything has to be approached cautiously, and the best result is that 99L should neither be given much certainty in development, nor should it be written off.


I agree, but I have a stronger feeling that this time is it. You can see in the Central GOM where steering flow is almost null at/after 88.7 to 89 degrees W and the influences of the ULL in the GOM and W ATL are starting to loosen up... but should be specially noticeable by tomorrow. I expect 99L to go no further than 88W LON before we start seeing that N/NNE/NE/ENE (possible) track materialize... be it be a TD/TS or whatever it decides to become... just my opinion.
Quoting 2198. wxsample:

Looks like a lot of dry air moving across Florida. Even with the recent flair up of convection, looks like any development will be slow. 99 sure has been giving the models a work out. There are so many interesting things to observe in the Atlantic, however, the Blog tends toward 99, urging it to develop. I suppose people have a tendency to root for the underdog.

"Underdogs" usually grow up with a chip on their shoulder. Can be mean dogs, later, 'cause they had to fight to survive....lol
Quoting 2208. IDTH:

Watch the HWRF in the super immediate short range and it will give us clues as to what the structure will look like on satellite. This is what the 0z had initialized at this time of the day





Watch these 12 hour trends closely. Look to see if the structure looks like this in 12 hours.




It actually did a superb job with the first time stamp depiction.
Quoting 2195. CaribBoy:

Omg yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeees :) Yes yes yes yes. Lol
Lol i hope your ready
How is 99l going to turn into anything with the massive ULL of texas taking half of the GOM up?????
2249. GatorWX
Waiting to see something concrete, at this point, but don't forget that 99's always been only a hiccup away from being a tc.
2250. Patrap
Quoting 2209. Articuno:

Wonder how disappointed Washi would be if 08 became Hermine and 99L became Ian... lol


Which ing up a certain point..

Never use a name or "pre" yafa,yada,yada.


The pros don't. Like as we see today, they get names for a reason.

The main reason we use names is for Ease of I'd when dealing with 2 or more storm simultaneously.


Pre anything is never used by the author as well.
Quoting 2170. daddyjames:



Only dependent upon how many times you look. 100th time for me ;)


So, Is this Brew 102???
The latest cmc doesn't develop the wave :\
Quoting 2196. washingtonian115:




That ridge is scary looking, nothing will be going out to sea with that in place. We must watch that closely
lol GFS strengthens storm as it moves over the spine of Cuba

taking towards S FL
2255. IDTH
Quoting 2207. Climate175:

Gaston looking good!

Looks worthy of the first major of the season. Pretty looking.
Nice try GFS
Quoting 2198. wxsample:

Looks like a lot of dry air moving across Florida. Even with the recent flair up of convection, looks like any development will be slow. 99 sure has been giving the models a work out. There are so many interesting things to observe in the Atlantic, however, the Blog tends toward 99, urging it to develop. I suppose people have a tendency to root for the underdog.


It's also due to the hours and days spent tracking it. One of those 'going down with the ship' kind of moments, like me driving to Florida to see the 3-8 Giants lose to the 1-10 Jaguars. The Panthers were also 3-8 or so, but their fans were busy watching ACC hoops. Tisk tisk.
GFS brings the storm up from Cuba and into the Keys
2259. IDTH
Quoting 2219. ncstorm:

Maps are in for 12z UKMET

TD8


99L




These models need to leave NC alone.
omg i hop this is not going where i think its going

GFS passes hurricane in the FL straits into GOM

basically 99L track but further S
major hurricane in the gulf this run

2263. K8eCane
Keeping eye on TD8 Hurrikan! The NWS this am called for it to "stall offshore" tomorrow, Tuesday. I have been there and bought the T shirt
Quoting 2248. derecho1:

How is 99l going to turn into anything with the massive ULL of texas taking half of the GOM up?????


ULL is going to move inland and weaken
Quoting 2214. CaribBoy:



Yes!!!! :)

Hopefully the GFS won't weaken it too much or it could be another 97 or 99L :(( Dry air shear blablabla :///


Please give CaribBoy rain! 4" would be most welcome.....Cisterns are getting low! Amen!
2266. vis0
anyone looking for my explanation as to 99L...no!
okay how about some crazy crap that will make you barf?
only 2 member okay you 2 please go to my zilly blog by clicking on  "huh" below,  BUT COME BACK to Dr. Masters .

huh?

The ONLY place one can get the  latest weather update TOGETHER with  comments, so come back here or the next blogbyte for the latest on the Tropical tease 99L.
I n the span of a week there has been about 10,000 comments on the 99l . has to be the most talked about wave/ could be a td/ could might maybe a c4/ the nhc is nuts/ the models are wrong( just pick a model any model) / doom / blob/ nothing more than a wave of storms crossing the carib. mother nature has given the weather nerds a weggie and they don't even realize it.
lmao.GFS has a category 5 into Tampa.
2270. Patrap
Gotta love the New Orleans NWS,




Previous discussion... /issued 454 am CDT sun Aug 28 2016/

Short term...

No significant changes in the forecast in the short term although
some tweaking of the precipitation chances and the temperatures
were made. Our slow moving upper level feature over the Gulf of
Mexico will continue to bring increased rain chances to the area
as a series of disturbances move across the area. Several rounds
of shower and thunderstorm development will be possible today and
tomorrow keeping daytime highs slightly cooler than normal.
Overall, the majority of the rainfall should fall over the Gulf
but there is a chance that some rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches
(with some higher amounts) over the two day period could spread
into the coastal areas south of Interstate 10. Otherwise, rainfall
amounts generally on the order of one inch can be expected.

Long term...


Welcome to another edition of as 99l turns.


Once again, the most likely outcome at this point remains as it
was at this time yesterday for our area. High pressure will build
in across the region and remain in place for most of the rest of
the work week. This will lower precipitation chances to 20 percent
or less across the area beginning on Wednesday and in turn cause
temperatures to rise into the mid 90s in most places. With the
increase in temperatures and the lack of convection in the area,
heat advisories may be needed later in the week. I did opt to
back off a touch on the high temperatures and up a touch with
precipitation chances with the uncertainly about 99l but
temperatures are still forecast to be in the mid 90s.

The National Hurricane Center has increased the chances of
development on 99l to 40 percent over the next 48 hours and 60
percent over the next five days. The system is still looking
ragged (and that is being kind) and suffering the effects of
unfavorable upper level winds as well as interaction with Cuba.
That said, the system should be entering a somewhat more favorable
area for some development as it moves through the Florida Straits
today and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The biggest development
tonight is probably in that there is once again model support for
99l to develop into a tropical cyclone and possibly impact some
portion of the Gulf Coast. The GFS, ECMWF, NAM and Canadian models
all develop 99l at this point but send it east of the area as a
trough dives down along the East Coast and allows for a weakness
in the Atlantic ridge. Should this scenario play out, there would
be some uneasy moments waiting for the system to turn to the north
and east as it could get rather close for Comfort. At this time
though, that is simply one of many possibilities.

As has been the case from the beginning of this, it is late August
and the tropics should be being watched closely for any
development. However, and most importantly; everyone should be
working on their normal yearly preparedness plan in the event
that something warrants action...whether that be sooner or later.
The area of clouds or disturbance  in the N/W Gulf looks better then 99l 
big hurricane for S and W FL
future 92L off Africa

Quoting 2248. derecho1:

How is 99l going to turn into anything with the massive ULL of texas taking half of the GOM up?????
I have no idea but NHC seems to think it will and they are the authority when it comes to storms even pain in the 99l storms
Quoting 2256. washingtonian115:

Nice try GFS


If I could tell a model to (nasty word) off.
I see we got TD 8 now too nice
2276. IDTH
Quoting 2243. Hurricanes101:

The ULL should give some rain to the NE portion of the islands. Remember, these ULLs can at times work their way down to the surface and this one in particular is starting to show a surface reflection.

Remember that Joaquin developed from a ULL last year and was 1mph away from a Cat 5.

Yeah I have my eyes on this one too. Some of the vorticity is at the surface now too



It could have a favorable environment too considering all the shear in that area is being caused by ULL.

TD8/ULL are literally throwing shade at me





We need Dr. Masters or Bob to set the record straight, what is this thing?

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...Primary headline this period, `Tropical
showers with Fiona stalling off the NC coast late Monday into
Tuesday`. Rain chances are good this period as precipitable waters
remain in the 2- 2.2 inch range as moisture off the western
Atlantic continues to ebb ashore. Diurnal heating will play a
large role, expanding interior shower coverage in the afternoons
to early evening, while isolated to scattered convection moves
onshore through the period. Showers and clouds may keep maximum
temperatures tempered into the middle to upper 80s most locations
Monday and Tuesday.&&
2278. Gearsts
Quoting 2252. CaribBoy:

The latest cmc doesn't develop the wave :\
Is the CMC.
Quoting 2253. WeatherkidJoe2323:



That ridge is scary looking, nothing will be going out to sea with that in place. We must watch that closely


Trapping 99L with Washi and carrying the name Ian perhaps? Trollolololol
Quoting 2256. washingtonian115:

Nice try GFS

We've seen this game before.
2282. ackee
12z Run on the GFS for that wave coming of Africa that track would affect so much areas in the carribbean GFS showing a strong Ridge west from so far north to the carribbean
Future 92L heading more south each run. This one may end up in the Caymans at this rate.
Quoting 2159. Patrap:

It was 11 years ago this hour,I was alone with Nova,my Sherman Shepherd.

Preps were almost completed for K,...my wife and and children had evacuated.


My neghborhood is west of the 17 the canal.


I would not see my family again till September's 16th.


19 days later.



Never root for calamity.



Karma will find you.

🎑
I remember the day well, Patrap. I'm about 90 miles NE of you as the crow flies and about 80 miles inland from the coast over in Mississippi. I had prepped for it but not nearly enough, not realizing how severe it was going to be. The eye passed about 15 miles to the east of me. I have learned the hard way that you can't prepare too much.
Quoting 2272. wunderkidcayman:

big hurricane for S and W FL
future 92L off Africa


Quoting 2268. bayoubug:




Holy 1935
Quoting 2238. stoormfury:

SLU
how strong is that ridge and how far west does it go ?. if it is very strong and goes further west, then the some caribbean islands could seriously be impacted.


Too early too know don't even look at the GFS its is always on drugs if i were you i would only pay attention to 72 hours out !!!
2288. ProPoly
Quoting 2153. Kyon5:

Much more south.


More realistic imo. It's not as far north in Africa as the models were exiting it.
2289. Gearsts
Quoting 2276. IDTH:


Yeah I have my eyes on this one too. Some of the vorticity is at the surface now too



It could have a favorable environment too considering all the shear in that area is being caused by ULL.




If it keeps getting fed energy from TD8 and Gaston, it has a shot.
2291. Patrap


Good afternoon folks.

Checking in to comment on soon-to-be 92L. Definitely going to be fun to watch this one as it treks across the tropical Atlantic following the (fortunate) dissapointment that was 99L. What's so incredible about the 12z GFS is the fact that it really is a game of inches. If the ridging overheard were to be just a tad bit stronger or weaker, we could see the difference between a category 1-2 ravaging the islands, or a category 4-5 trekking the northern Caribbean or southern Atlantic on it's way to some land mass. Looks like the next week and a half are going to be the most interesting of the season, and when you have the two best global models on board, you know it's worth watching. Very interesting that all of the models develop future 92L virtually after coming off the coast. That definitely doesn't bode well down the line because it will have an established core to work with once it gets into the sweet spot west of 55W as the models are depicting.

And for those of you wondering, the weather today in Miami is good enough to be at the beach. If you would've asked me 4-5 days ago I would've been expecting to be hunkering down for a strong tropical storm/minor hurricane at this point. Mother nature never fails to throw curveballs at us. :)
Quoting 2198. wxsample:

Looks like a lot of dry air moving across Florida. Even with the recent flair up of convection, looks like any development will be slow. 99 sure has been giving the models a work out. There are so many interesting things to observe in the Atlantic, however, the Blog tends toward 99, urging it to develop. I suppose people have a tendency to root for the underdog.

I have been a member of this site a long time. I usually do not comment. I don't think the members posting on this blog are urging 99 to develop.
The blog members interest in 99 is warranted considering it will be in the GOM . The fact it's named 99 , has made for nostalgic reminiscing of Get Smart and Toto's song...
Consolidation around the LLC FINALLY seems to be occurring... But the moment might be fleeting with the still high 20 knot northerly shear. If convection begins wrapping around the north side of the LLC, I'll be more sure that this is starting to become something.

Sticking by my earlier odds of 80% likelihood of a Tropical Storm by Tuesday and 50% likelihood of a hurricane by Wednesday night. I'll add a 1% chance of rapid intensification into a major hurricane by Wednesday night given the current conditions (Sorry HWRF).
12Z HWRF starts to turn 99L northward at about 60 hours
2296. Gearsts
Ed Vallee ‏@EdValleeWx 5h5 hours ago
Classic strong AEW signal on the European through next wk. Probably strongest signal this season so far
Quoting 2283. unknowncomic:

Future 92L heading more south each run. This one may end up in the Caymans at this rate.
now ya done it
Quoting 2277. win1gamegiantsplease:

TD8/ULL are literally throwing shade at me





We need Dr. Masters or Bob to set the record straight, what is this thing?

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...Primary headline this period, `Tropical
showers with Fiona stalling off the NC coast late Monday into
Tuesday`. Rain chances are good this period as precipitable waters
remain in the 2- 2.2 inch range as moisture off the western
Atlantic continues to ebb ashore. Diurnal heating will play a
large role, expanding interior shower coverage in the afternoons
to early evening, while isolated to scattered convection moves
onshore through the period. Showers and clouds may keep maximum
temperatures tempered into the middle to upper 80s most locations
Monday and Tuesday.&&



Hmm, that met needs to be on the same page as the NHC. You would think the NHC would have mentioned something about ex-Fiona firing back up - but they haven't (as of yet).
Quoting 2234. IDTH:


I'm here, just in the mountains now.

Another one from NC! Always lurking!
Quoting 2292. MiamiHurricanes09:

Good afternoon folks.

Checking in to comment on soon-to-be 92L. Definitely going to be fun to watch this one as it treks across the tropical Atlantic following the (fortunate) dissapointment that was 99L. What's so incredible about the 12z GFS is the fact that it really is a game of inches. If the ridging overheard were to be just a tad bit stronger or weaker, we could see the difference between a category 1-2 ravaging the islands, or a category 4-5 trekking the northern Caribbean or southern Atlantic on it's way to some land mass. Looks like the next week and a half are going to be the most interesting of the season, and when you have the two best global models on board, you know it's worth watching. Very interesting that all of the models develop future 92L virtually after coming off the coast. That definitely doesn't bode well down the line because it will have an established core to work with once it gets into the sweet spot west of 55W as the models are depicting.

And for those of you wondering, the weater today in Miami is good enough to be at the beach. If you would've asked me 4-5 days ago I would've been expecting to be hunkering down for a strong tropical storm/minor hurricane at this point. Mother nature never fails to throw curveballs at us. :)


um was 99L? It is still alive and still being tracked by the NHC, so past tense does not apply to 99L.
Quoting 2252. CaribBoy:

The latest cmc doesn't develop the wave :\


it may bring it back again next run
Just got a small band from 99L, lasted no more than 5 minutes winds gusted to the mid 20s. I guess survived 99L, let me go print a shirt.
Quoting 2263. K8eCane:

Keeping eye on TD8 Hurrikan! The NWS this am called for it to "stall offshore" tomorrow, Tuesday. I have been there and bought the T shirt


Allison. 40+ inches of rain. 2001, I think..
I see the 12z GFS takes 99L into North Carolina as a hurricane. Interesting...
2305. Patrap
She's yawing into the GOM..de-cloaking and will find juicy SST's.






@2292, Miamihurricane09 ...congratulations on your graduation.
I feel like I've watched another child grow up to adulthood.
Onward to your next chapter in life

Been cooler here in Houston and had a few sprinkles earlier today.
Would like to see some real rain though, been overcast for the most part for the past couple of days.
Quoting 2300. Hurricanes101:



um was 99L? It is still alive and still being tracked by the NHC, so past tense does not apply to 99L.


noaa will be going out too 99L has well at 18z so well see whats really going on with 99L all so you are right 99L may now be getting its act to geter
Quoting 2300. Hurricanes101:



um was 99L? It is still alive and still being tracked by the NHC, so past tense does not apply to 99L.
I'm aware. :) 99L was a dissapointment in the sense that it did not develop prior to affecting south Florida as the Euro was forecasting.
Quoting 2288. ProPoly:



More realistic imo. It's not as far north in Africa as the models were exiting it.


still bring it off Africa too far N imo

still moving over CV islands
Quoting 2306. justmehouston:

@2292, Miamihurricane09 ...congratulations on your graduation.
I feel like I've watched another child grow up to adulthood.
Onward to your next chapter in life

Been cooler here in Houston and had a few sprinkles earlier today.
Would like to see some real rain though, been overcast for the most part for the past couple of days.
Hahah thank you! Now I'm moving on to the real schooling lol.
2311. K8eCane
Quoting 2277. win1gamegiantsplease:

TD8/ULL are literally throwing shade at me





We need Dr. Masters or Bob to set the record straight, what is this thing?

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...Primary headline this period, `Tropical
showers with Fiona stalling off the NC coast late Monday into
Tuesday`. Rain chances are good this period as precipitable waters
remain in the 2- 2.2 inch range as moisture off the western
Atlantic continues to ebb ashore. Diurnal heating will play a
large role, expanding interior shower coverage in the afternoons
to early evening, while isolated to scattered convection moves
onshore through the period. Showers and clouds may keep maximum
temperatures tempered into the middle to upper 80s most locations
Monday and Tuesday.&&



They posted that earlier before it became TD8
The latest track of the GFS, combined with the intensity forecast by the HWRF has 99L going from this:



To this:


For you younger folks this is a movie . . . . ;)
2313. hydrus
Quoting 2297. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

now ya done it
Thats O.K..two, three runs from now it will be heading toward Mars
12z HWRF takes 08L below 1000mb by Wednesday.



11years ago today: I was waiting to hear from my job that I was released to go. I worked for a hospital. I had already sent my younger two children with my mother, the night before, and they were almost to Jacksonville. I would spend the next 14 hours on the road, making it to Jacksonville at 2am. I would return 5 days later to the most indescribable destruction you could ever imagine!!! My town, my community, my home and my entire way of life were all gone. Two neighbors lost their lives and hundreds more along the Coast. In all, 1,836 people died and many more in the aftermath that were never added to that total. Never, ever take a storm lightly. When told to leave, GO!! 11 years later, my Coast will never be the same. Louisiana will never be the same. The destruction is still evident and the emotional pain is still there. All of that said, I don't trust "naked swirly things" (I.e. TD 10/12/Katrina). I know, "not the same setup, etc" just making the point that it ain't over until it's over. PS: Patrap: NWS New Orleans.. gotta love Southern humor!!
Quoting 2286. win1gamegiantsplease:



Holy 1935


Sweet baby....I actually had to look at the time and date on it. GFS is giving me whiplash.
Quoting 2307. thetwilightzone:



noaa will be going out too 99L has well at 18z so well see whats really going on with 99L all so you are right 99L may now be getting its act to geter


if noaa finds W winds i think 99L is a lest a strong TD right now so we shall see
There is no way that storm is going north after it reachespecially the NC coast. It would have to defy all the rules.
2319. K8eCane
Quoting 2303. muddertracker:



Allison. 40+ inches of rain. 2001, I think..


also Bonnie 1998 but this may not even get named but I do realize it still may dump a whole lotta rain ( I hate bad snakes)
2320. Patrap
Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Click image for loop

2321. ncstorm
HRRR latest run/hour 18 with TD 8

2322. IDTH

Quoting 2310. MiamiHurricanes09:

Hahah thank you! Now I'm moving on to the real schooling lol.


Let me guess, a Gator? :)
99L center is starting too get dress


Quoting 2312. daddyjames:

The latest track of the GFS, combined with the intensity forecast by the HWRF has 99L going from this:



To this:


For you younger folks this is a movie . . . . ;)


Funny. I was newly married when this movie came out and she permanently scared me to death to remain faithful to my wife. In which I have.
Quoting 2312. daddyjames:

The latest track of the GFS, combined with the intensity forecast by the HWRF has 99L going from this:

To this:


Here's hoping 99l just becomes rabbit stew.
For Taz:


URNT15 KWBC 281714
NOAA3 05EEA INVEST HDOB 01 20160828

Flight 5 into invest EE
Based off Key West radar, looks like an elongated LLC oriented from Key West and then SSE. Looks like the convection on the east side is collapsing SW, squashing any banding on the south side from wrapping all the way around like it would need to in order to develop. An exact center point on radar is rather ill defined as compared to earlier. But still carries a nice overall spin.
Quoting 2314. CybrTeddy:

12z HWRF takes 08L below 1000mb by Wednesday.






Of course it does :P
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Lol..Longest invest tracking of all time

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 18 minutes ago

Day 11 of watching Invest 99L ... who's up for 5 days of Gulf of Mexico tracking ... and maybe an East Coast runner? 3 weeks of ur life

with 99L center now starting too get dress and with the rader looking good now 99L has really got in its act togetter this AM

and if noaa recon gos out at 18z and find a W wind and a good strong closed low they could vary well find a TROPICAL DEPRESSION or TROPICAL STORM so we will see what they find in 99L but 99L has really got in better organized. since early this Am
Its like Christmas;

6 tabs open at once
5 posts of the TWOOOOOOOO
4 systems to track
3 more days for development
2 recons flying
and a huge headache from 99LLLLLLLL
NOAAHurricaneHunters ‏@NOAA_HurrHunter 3 hours ago

1300L takeoff today into #invest99L is a GO. We will be flying down low at 1,500ft above the water to look for signs of rotation.

Quoting 2278. Gearsts:

Is the CMC.


Both the GFS and the CMC have a trough dropping down just as what-will-be 92L passes by. The trough misses 92L in the GFS, but impacts the next wave as it exits Africa. The CMC shows the trough affecting 92L. Interesting.
HWRF running, has TD8 as a 990mb low about 200 nm due east of Kill Devil Hills
Quoting 2314. CybrTeddy:

12z HWRF takes 08L below 1000mb by Wednesday.






wouldn't it go more poleward bringing it into virginia though? I live near the bay and I'm keeping an eye on this
I think 99L is getting its act together as a tree limb fell down here in Boca Raton and took out power to 1700 neighbors for one hour! Not sure how high the gust of wind was that did this... and my front door faces East and I had to actually push it hard against the wind to open it!
2339. beell
GFS N/S upper level confluence axis across Florida with subsidence and northerly shear will be shifting to the east-leaving 99L underneath upper shortwave ridging between the flanking ULL's. Not too shabby for development if it verifies.


12Z 200 mb streamlines, mslp @ 12Z Sunday


12Z 200 mb streamlines, mslp @ 12Z Monday
2340. SLU
Quoting 2238. stoormfury:

SLU
how strong is that ridge and how far west does it go ?. if it is very strong and goes further west, then the some caribbean islands could seriously be impacted.


The ridge could be very zonal in nature (east/west) similar to the ridge that trapped Hurricane Dean 2007. What is more important is how far north it emerges off Africa. The models show some strange interaction with another low pressure system in West Africa which causes the wave to jump from 10N to 17N. However, I think it will come off a bit further south. It doesn't look like this system will gain more that a latitude or two all the way to 60W so where it comes off could be the difference between a direct hit for the islands like in the 12z GFS or a near miss as in the 00z ECMWF.




2341. GatorWX
Quoting 2323. nrtiwlnvragn:



Let me guess, a Gator? :)


One would hope. :)
Quoting 2332. thetwilightzone:

with 99L center now starting too get dress and with the rader looking good now 99L has really got in its act togetter this AM

and if noaa recon gos out at 18z and find a W wind and a good strong closed low they could vary well find a TROPICAL DEPRESSION or TROPICAL STORM so we will see what they find in 99L but 99L has really got in better organized. since early this Am

The race for the name Hermine is on
Hello, anybody knows if the HH is going to investigate 99L today?.
They were schedule for 1300 hours if not mistaken?.
99L is now up to 60/80

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gaston, located about 600 miles east of Bermuda, and on newly
formed Tropical Depression Eight, located about 400 miles southeast
of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.

Shower and thunderstorm activity has begun to increase near and to
the east of a weak area of low pressure located just south of the
lower Florida Keys. The low is expected to move westward into the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday, where environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few
days. This system is then expected to move slowly northward and
northeastward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico later this week.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely
to continue over portions of the northwestern Bahamas, central and
western Cuba, the Florida Keys and portions of southern Florida
through Monday. Interests elsewhere in Florida and the eastern Gulf
of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
Quoting 2343. Hurricane1956:

Hello, anybody knows if the HH is going to investigate 99L today?.
They were schedule for 1300 hours if not mistaken?.



yes they are now heading too 99L
Looks like they are in route:

Link

Here is the Google EarthKML

Quoting 2343. Hurricane1956:

Hello, anybody knows if the HH is going to investigate 99L today?.
They were schedule for 1300 hours if not mistaken?.

2347. IKE
60/80 on 99L
Quoting 2344. thetwilightzone:

99L is now up to 60/80

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gaston, located about 600 miles east of Bermuda, and on newly
formed Tropical Depression Eight, located about 400 miles southeast
of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.

Shower and thunderstorm activity has begun to increase near and to
the east of a weak area of low pressure located just south of the
lower Florida Keys. The low is expected to move westward into the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday, where environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few
days. This system is then expected to move slowly northward and
northeastward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico later this week.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely
to continue over portions of the northwestern Bahamas, central and
western Cuba, the Florida Keys and portions of southern Florida
through Monday. Interests elsewhere in Florida and the eastern Gulf
of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent


Back to 80% again. Didn't see that coming this early.
Quoting 2341. GatorWX:



One would hope. :)


We all have our faults:). Jk
2350. mfcmom
Bryan Norcross has an interesting take on the two. Don't know how to bring it over.
Well, as predicted by some of the models. 99L is starting to get her act together. Now once we get a good COC we will be able to determine where it might land. As of now all interests between NOLA and Tampa must pay close attention to this system.
2352. vis0
CREDIT:: NASA (Langley)
D&T:: On imagery 9top)
NOTE:: apology for the note left on animation. It was for another group, forgot to remove note/overlay, if you want read update on ml-d reset blog.

image host

will the central east coast of florida get bad?
Quoting 2353. mamothmiss:

will the central east coast of florida get bad?


Get bad from what?
Do you see a storm coming to Melbourne?