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Wait-and-See Drama With 99L Will Continue For Up to Another Week

By: Jeff Masters 9:28 PM GMT on August 26, 2016

The week-long wait-and-see drama will continue for up to another week with the large but disorganized tropical wave (Invest 99L) chugging west-northwest at 10 mph through The Bahamas. Satellite loops late Friday afternoon showed an increase in the storm’s organization and heavy thunderstorms, but there was no well-organized surface circulation center and the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity was modest at best. Wind shear dropped from a high 20 - 25 knots early Friday morning to a moderate 10 - 15 mph by Friday afternoon, which allowed the increase in 99L’s heavy thunderstorms near its center to occur. However, 99L was still struggling with dry air, as seen on water vapor satellite imagery. Arc-shaped lines of surface cumulus clouds forming along the outflow boundaries of dry thunderstorm downdrafts, as seen in visible satellite imagery (Figure 1), were more evidence that the storm was struggling with dry air. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remained favorable for development, though: 29.5°C (85°F). Satellite-measured surface winds at 10:17 am EDT Friday from the ASCAT instrument were as high as 35 mph in the heaviest thunderstorms to the east of 99L’s center. The Hurricane Hunters did not investigate 99L on Friday, but are scheduled to investigate again on Saturday afternoon.


Figure 1. MODIS visible satellite image of 99L taken Friday morning, August 26, 2016. A surface circulation center was trying to form over the central Bahamas. Heavy thunderstorms were building along the southeast side of the center, but were ingesting dry mid-level air. This dry air causes evaporative cooling, creating cooler, dense air and strong downdrafts within 99L’s thunderstorms, robbing them of moisture. When these downdraft hit the ocean, they spread out horizontally, creating an arc-shaped band of surface cumulus clouds showing the outflow boundary of the air from the downdraft. As 99L continues to struggle with dry air, expect to see more of these arc-shaped outflow boundaries.


Figure 2. The vertical wind shear between 200 mb and 850 mb as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin/CIMSS on Friday morning, August 26, 2016. In the space of six hours, the wind shear near the core of 99L fell from about 25 - 30 knots (yellow-green to yellow colors), to about 15 knots (dark blue-green colors.) The dashed light blue lines show where there had been a 5 knot decrease in wind shear over the previous 24 hours; the white solid lines outline areas where the wind shear had increased by 5 knots in 24 hours. The reduction in wind shear on Friday helped allow 99L to grow more organized and build some heavy thunderstorms near its center.

Track forecast for 99L
A strong ridge of high pressure now covering much of the Southeast U.S. and northern Gulf of Mexico will remain in place through Sunday, which should keep 99L on its general west-northwest track at 5 - 10 mph for the next three days. The storm will reach South Florida and the Florida Keys on Sunday morning. At that point, the models diverge, with the GFS and European model predicting that the ridge of high pressure steering the storm will weaken, allowing 99L to turn more to the north. The UKMET model keeps 99L moving west-northwest into the central Gulf of Mexico, keeping the storm in the Gulf through next Friday.

Intensity forecast for 99L
Since 99L has moved into an area of higher moisture and lower wind shear, the storm is likely to slowly but steadily organize. The SHIPS model on Friday afternoon predicted that wind shear would remain mostly in the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, for the next five days. SSTs will increase to 30°C (86°F) by Sunday, and mid-level relative humidity was predicted to increase from 65% to 70%. However, there will still be some dry air for 99L to contend with.

Two of our three reliable models for predicting tropical genesis, the ECMWF and GFS, did not show development of 99L into a tropical cyclone over the next five days in their latest 12Z Friday (8 am EDT) runs. These models brought 99L northwards along the west coast of Florida early next week, spreading heavy rains of 3 - 5” along the west coast of Florida. Our other reliable tropical cyclone genesis model, the UKMET, continued to predict that 99L would develop into a hurricane in the central Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week. At this point, pretty much any outcome you can imagine is still on the table--failure to develop, development into a weak but rainy tropical storm, or intensification into a hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico. In their 2 pm EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 99L 2-day and 5-day odds of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm of 30% and 60%, respectively.

Regardless of whether or not 99L ever becomes Tropical Storm Hermine, Florida is going to get some rain from this system. The 7-day precipitation outlook from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC) calls for a large area of 3 - 5” rains across southern and western Florida over the coming week. If 99L takes the more westerly track predicted by the UKMET model, west Florida will be spared the heaviest rains.

I’ll continue to plug away documenting the life and times of 99L and its seemingly eternal quest to get its name on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 994. washingtonian115:

I just wish for 99L to dissipate all together as Its not doing anything besides becoming a nuisance.I wasted time with this thing that I'll never get back.

What are you talking about? it's putting on its biggest blowup of convection in days right now
1002. ackee
99L will blow up with convection and die down later 99L Drama continue GOM Part 2 will be interesting to watch
1003. beell
Unless 99L begins to get some organization today/tomorrow, it won't be too march logger before the western gulf state goes back on the watch list.
Looking like it will try to draw in the building convection just off the SW fl coast. That surge of moisture should finish off what may be left of dry air on the west side of COC.
Quoting 996. SavannahStorm:



According to that time and date, that loop is from yesterday afternoon.


Then there comes that moment you know you've been looking at the computer too long haha.
there are too many people in here that are either completely bullish on 99L or they flip-flop and become completely bearish on it....

they are doing this with no supporting evidence except the fact that it hasn't blown up into a hurricane yet....

only time will tell if 99L becomes a hurricane, and secondly, WUnderground needs an option to block all messages from people you don't want to see comments from.....
1007. Patrap
If I had a penny for every person (including me) who posted something along the lines of "I've had it with this disturbance!!" or "I wish it would just dissapate!!"

After all that, I wouldn't be surprised for 99l to turn around and bite us all in the backside becoming a considerable storm and hitting someone.
Quoting 936. IKE:

Trusting a model is like trusting a girlfriend that has cheated on you.
We wait and watch Mr. 99L.

This one is more like Mystery Babylon. One day she just decides to sleep with all your friends, and from the looks on their faces, you know it was better than you got.
1010. beell

Broad low pressure. Looks similar to yesterday morning-just further west.
Everyone have a safe weather weekend and see Y'all on Monday.  Headed to Autozone to change out my windshield wipers in honor of 99L.
Good morning everyone, still watching closely over here. I have question for weather nerds, I know it's possible for tutts to hinder or help tropical cyclones, but has a tutt ever made the transition into a named storm? I tried to google it but couldn't find any info on that aspect of cyclogensis.. I'm just trying to learn, not suggesting, forecasting wish casting or trying to be dumb.
So far, 99L has been "the little engine that couldn't". but I wouldn't rule it out as the Gulf of Mexico awaits.
1014. FOREX
99L may be named as our 2017 "A" storm in January.
Quoting 1010. beell:




Yup that seems to be it. Trying to get some thunderstorms over it, yet again lol
Quoting 1010. beell:




heading due west - looking as if it may move to the SW short term . . .
1018. FOREX
Quoting 1010. beell:


Broad low pressure. Looks similar to yesterday morning-just further west.
So the "coc" is still outrunning the convection? Do you think the convection will EVER catch up??????
1019. Grothar
This would indicate 99L will move off of NE Florida and reform, or possibly merge with 91L.

Quoting 1012. leelee75k:

Good morning everyone, still watching closely over here. I have question for weather nerds, I know it's possible for tutts to hinder or help tropical cyclones, but has a tutt ever made the transition into a named storm? I tried to google it but couldn't find any info on that aspect of cyclogensis.. I'm just trying to learn, not suggesting, forecasting wish casting or trying to be dumb.


Fixed that for you.
Generally, I don't think so, Convection associated with a TUTT might, but not the TUTT itself. But, I could be incorrect.
1021. Patrap
Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Click image for loop.

Whenever this thing does get close to SFLA, I really hope one of those convective bursts doesn't engulf us, I'm only really concerned about flash flooding and people getting their cars caught in street flooding.
Quoting 1018. FOREX:

So the "coc" is still outrunning the convection? Do you think the convection will EVER catch up??????


Think that it is still just outside of the convergence/divergence zone.
Quoting 1003. beell:

Unless 99L begins to get some organization today/tomorrow, it won't be too march logger before the western gulf state goes back on the watch list.


I hate it when things are march loggers. Lumberjacks in spring don't paint a pretty picture.


West wind being reported on the Cuban Camaguey Islands just south of the possible COC.
1026. cynyc2
Don't you people sleep! 99L will be there later! What ever she does, she won't go away - for a long time. Sleep now, WU commenters.
Quoting 994. washingtonian115:

I just wish for 99L to dissipate all together as Its not doing anything besides becoming a nuisance.I wasted time with this thing that I'll never get back.


I agree, plus who wants to see a strengthening storm get into the gulf. Landfall would be imminent somewhere.
Quoting 1012. leelee75k:

Good morning everyone, still watching closely over here. I have question for weather nerds, I know it's possible for tutts to hinder or help tropical cyclones, but has a tutt ever made the transition into a named storm? I tried to google it but couldn't find any info on that aspect of cyclogensis.. I'm just trying to learn, not suggesting, forecasting wish casting or trying to be dumb.


They can, but I can't think of a name. They can in some cases encourage growth rather than impede it. Bertha and Arthur are two examples of that.
Quoting 996. SavannahStorm:



According to that time and date, that loop is from yesterday afternoon.

GITMO radar stinx too!...
I wonder when the next Levi video will come out. Don't know if he wasn't impressed with the storm last night, or just too busy to make a video. Hope he will make another one.
I, like many, have tracked 99L for what seems forever. I don't try to pretend that I have any special meterological powers that allow me to forecast storms. I do what I have done for many years and look at multiple sources and typically the same sources are the reliable ones. I do this so that I know what actions I may need to take to protect my family. As to 99L, the only place that I have seen ANYONE predict that 99L would develop into a damaging hurricane is in the comments section here. So, that either tells me that the posters in here have magical powers beyond those of the NHC, or many of the posters have no clue what they are talking about and interpret everything they see as a sign of a category 5 developing.
Essentially, these comments have evolved into nothing to do with weather and have become a home for sadistic freaks that wish impending doom on others. Likely, this is because these freaks have never been through the devastation that a severe storm brings.
I'll say also that it isn't really just these comments. There are many twitter pages, websites, and blogs that are clearly not interested in passing on reliable information and are only interested in hype.
Just my thoughts and observations.
is there a center at 23N 75.1W ?

1035. barbamz
Good morning over there. Another day with our Bahamian friend, eh? And I don't mean Baha :-)
99L with wind vectors, including westerlies.
Quoting 1030. Kowaliga:


GITMO radar stinx too!...



Yea, GITMO is ringed with mountains on the northern side, so radar isn't going to show much on the other side of the mountains.
Has the recon into 99L been cancelled for today?
Quoting 1034. Thunderground:

is there a center at 23N 75.1W ?




Unless it's a new one forming, the center is out running to the wnw. This has happened several times before.
Quoting 1035. barbamz:

Good morning over there. Another day with our Bahamian friend, eh? And I don't mean Baha :-)
99L with wind vectors, including westerlies.


Some weak rotation evident in around 23 N 75 W, could be mere coincidence though.
1040. Houdude
It's almost time for us in the West Gulf to start taking 99L seriously. The semi exposed center is clearly visible passing south of Andros Island toward the strait.
1041. hydrus
1042. Soflo
99l is driving me crazy fire up already
Quoting 1019. Grothar:

This would indicate 99L will move off of NE Florida and reform, or possibly merge with 91L.



Love and marriage, love and marriage . . .
Try, try, try to separate them
It's an illusion;
Try, try, try, and you will only come
To this conclusion
Quoting 1034. Thunderground:

is there a center at 23N 75.1W ?




AL, 99, 2016082712, , BEST, 0, 234N, 779W, 25, 1009, DB

27/1145 UTC 23.7N 77.1W TOO WEAK 99L -- Atlantic

this is where 99L is at but the two are not in a agreedment
TCU can be seen on hi-res vis building north and west of COC. I think we are just a moment or two away from finally having convection in all quadrants. Finally looks to have shed the dry air.
91L will hit Hermine before 99L does (maybe Ian). It looks so much better. Has the Anticyclone and water tamps. Just watch and mark my words.
1047. pingon
Quoting 1003. beell:

Unless 99L begins to get some organization today/tomorrow, it won't be too march logger before the western gulf state goes back on the watch list.


I was a march logger once..........then I lost my ax :-(
1048. palmpt
Quoting 1033. nanunanu28:

I, like many, have tracked 99L for what seems forever. I don't try to pretend that I have any special meterological powers that allow me to forecast storms. I do what I have done for many years and look at multiple sources and typically the same sources are the reliable ones. I do this so that I know what actions I may need to take to protect my family. As to 99L, the only place that I have seen ANYONE predict that 99L would develop into a damaging hurricane is in the comments section here. So, that either tells me that the posters in here have magical powers beyond those of the NHC, or many of the posters have no clue what they are talking about and interpret everything they see as a sign of a category 5 developing.
Essentially, these comments have evolved into nothing to do with weather and have become a home for sadistic freaks that wish impending doom on others. Likely, this is because these freaks have never been through the devastation that a severe storm brings.
I'll say also that it isn't really just these comments. There are many twitter pages, websites, and blogs that are clearly not interested in passing on reliable information and are only interested in hype.
Just my thoughts and observations.


Not a surprising first comment. I am a survivor of many storms. You will get the rhythm. Most debate here is just that. There are a few who want doom. But most don't. Have a great day.
Quoting 1041. hydrus:




In the short term, that ULL might help ventilate 99L. In the long term, could shear it to death.
tough for a large system to get organized and even tougher for one to do it in the straits of Florida. impressive cv system 99
99L looks the best it has in days i would look for the odds too go back up today
Quoting 1026. cynyc2:

Don't you people sleep! 99L will be there later! What ever she does, she won't go away - for a long time. Sleep now, WU commenters.


i don't know about you, but generally when the sun is up, so am I.
1053. Broward
b est visible i could find.... from someones link yesterday.... I just changed zoom , lat and long.....type in your own lat and long replacing 24 and 78.6 if u wish

Link
1054. Patrap
1055. palmpt
Quoting 1052. daddyjames:



i don't know about you, but generally when the sun is up, so am I.

Ha. Clever.
1056. beell
Quoting 1018. FOREX:

So the "coc" is still outrunning the convection? Do you think the convection will EVER catch up??????


Based on morning soundings at Key West, Miami, and Nassau, there may be close to 30 knots of northerly shear over 99L. CIMSS is lower. Either one, 20-30 knots won't help alignment of convection.

Maybe Monday after it clears the Straits of FL. But then again, that has been the standard answer for almost any question about 99L for over a week. "Maybe in 48 hrs"!
Quoting 1050. islander101010:

tough for a large system to get organized and even tougher for one to do it in the straits of Florida. impressive cv system 99


The Florida straits have been the sight of many intensifications of many storms in the past.
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Atlantic system unlikely to develop in the Gulf

A broad area of low pressure near Cuba is not expected to develop into anything.

National Hurricane Center Senior Hurricane Specialist Michael Brennan says it "continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms mainly to the south and east of its center." He adds, "Upper-level winds are not conducive for significant development."

After days of speculation and concern along the Gulf Coast, the Hurricane Center says there is just a 20 percent chance of development over the next two days and 40 percent over the next five days.

Forecasters do expect the system to get into the Gulf, but say it has been significantly weakened. The Hurricane Center does advise people in Florida to continue to monitor Invest 99.

"Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for some development when the system moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico next week," according to Brennan. "Interests... in Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance."

WWL TV Chief Meteorologist Carl Arredondo says, "It's a very poorly organized system. Some models are still trying to develop it... and some don't develop it at all."
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Forecast for 99L:

48 hours: 20%
5 days: 40%
S__t storm sandwich: 100%
1061. Patrap



Quoting 1018. FOREX:

So the "coc" is still outrunning the convection? Do you think the convection will EVER catch up??????


The LLC isn't so much outrunning anymore, it's slowed down enough that the convection is starting to consolidate around the eastern side -slowly. If you look at the last several framesHere, the LLC seems to be moving WSW at less than 10mph and the convection is getting closer (though not over top) the LLC. It is only a matter of time before the convection catches up.
looks like 99L GOT HIT with some shear-b-gone....by ronco
Quoting 975. Chicklit:


It's happening aquak.
We've got lower convergence and upper divergence...


...loosely knit and bordering land though it may be.
no way any body should be writing off 99L at this point.


Getting close to the gulf stream too. Anybody know if the gulf is a tad warmer in between FL and the Bahamas than waters to its south? It moving faster through there being my logic..
Sorry but 91L looks better than 99L HAMPTON BEACH represent! night till 11pm.
Quoting 1034. Thunderground:

is there a center at 23N 75.1W ?

I am no a meteorologist , but that is what my eyes are seeing. A new spin.
Quoting 1062. VegasRain:



The LLC isn't so much outrunning anymore, it's slowed down enough that the convection is starting to consolidate around the eastern side -slowly. If you look at the last several framesHere, the LLC seems to be moving WSW at less than 10mph and the convection is getting closer (though not over top) the LLC. It is only a matter of time before the convection catches up.


just in time for the LLC to impact the Cuban coast - and then we start all over again. Round and round she goes, when or if it'll develop nobody knows.
1069. Patrap
Miami Nexrad
Base Radial Velocity

.20 elevation

99 got the Pac Man look
Models still show the high latitude trash off the coast of Africa :\
i think 99L really has a ch now
Quoting 1052. daddyjames:



i don't know about you, but generally when the sun is up, so am I.
😂😂
99L will not form and never will. All we look at now is models that project a possible scenario. We all should be asking why? what is the cause of no major Hurricane hitting the CONUS for 11 years now. After the most prolific record season of 2005. How did it go to nothing for 11 years now. We have not had a major Hurricane in the Gulf since 2005. We have lopsided never stacked rainmakers that push storm surge like Hurricane Ike in 2008. I'm not saying that were not devastated with weather events in our country because we are. I see no major Hurricanes hitting the US this year especially the Gulf. You can have the hottest water, the calmest winds and moist air aloft. It doesn't matter unless all those ingredients are able to all relax to form a storm. The trade-winds are and have been to hostile for many years exactly 11 years now.
Quoting 1068. daddyjames:




I don't think it's moving quite as much to the WSW as it appears. The large circulation is contracting at the same time it is moving west giving the appearance of a WSW movement. There's not really enough visible frames for me to say for sure but I think it is moving more Westerly. It should clear the north coast of Cuba.
1076. Patrap
That coc has been there, almost 24hr...as it is not new.

Been tracking it frame by frame since 2am CDT.


It is the CV genesis that always concerns us.


They tenacious...and when they find a good environment... we know how quickly they can take advantage of that.

Quoting 1064. win1gamegiantsplease:



Getting close to the gulf stream too. Anybody know if the gulf is a tad warmer in between FL and the Bahamas than waters to its south? It moving faster through there being my logic..
I heard 85-90
1078. beell
Quoting 1026. cynyc2:

Don't you people sleep! 99L will be there later! What ever she does, she won't go away - for a long time. Sleep now, WU commenters.


ok, mom.
Although broad and convection still displaced the center of 99L looks best it has
1080. Broward
I been staring at 99L so many days and nights I still see it when I close my eyes like its burned into my retinas.I think i need glasses now too...now I am staring at the radar waiting for it to come into range
Quoting 1026. cynyc2:

Don't you people sleep! 99L will be there later! What ever she does, she won't go away - for a long time. Sleep now, WU commenters.


Wait do I sleep? Do I not sleep? Idk what to do!
Quoting 1036. SavannahStorm:



Yea, GITMO is ringed with mountains on the northern side, so radar isn't going to show much on the other side of the mountains.

Long shot from JA...
As Pat has pointed out. Area of low pressure, generating convection in the Bahamas in August is something you should not turn your back on regardless of the past history of the system.
Quoting 1081. ParanoidAndroid:



Wait do I sleep? Do I not sleep? Idk what to do!


Grammar, it saves us from paradoxes.
Quoting 1081. ParanoidAndroid:



Wait do I sleep? Do I not sleep? Idk what to do!


What happens if 99L forms convection while you are sleeping??? It might get sheared away before you can see it!!!
1087. Broward
think its starting to come into radar range....
Clouds thickening around the LLC.
1089. IKE
99L looking a touch better the last few frames. I'm watching. I haven't given up. The warm GOM oil filled waters await it.
What is sleep? Opposite of coffee? 8\
I also believe us folks will see a beautiful storm today and tomorrow. I think Gaston will become a major and be a beauty
if 99L has a really good day we could be looking at a TD or TS by late sunday or monday we will see
Quoting 1091. thetwilightzone:



dont start issue for other bloger this is your only warning other wise you be added too my ignore list


To quote Nike and Shia Leboeuf, just do it. One of the worst of the bunch.
1095. Sangria
Quoting 1077. weathercrazy40:

I heard 85-90


Current readings:

1096. BayFog

Definite rotation in the cloud mass along the coast of Cuba. Unclear whether it reaches to the surface.
1097. beell

Surface


Mid-level
with 99L and 91L its a race too see oh gets too IAN or Hermine 1st
1099. Patrap
Quoting 1074. frank727:

99L will not form and never will. All we look at now is models that project a possible scenario. We all should be asking why? what is the cause of no major Hurricane hitting the CONUS for 11 years now. After the most prolific record season of 2005. How did it go to nothing for 11 years now. We have not had a major Hurricane in the Gulf since 2005. We have lopsided never stacked rainmakers that push storm surge like Hurricane Ike in 2008. I'm not saying that were not devastated with weather events in our country because we are. I see no major Hurricanes hitting the US this year especially the Gulf. You can have the hottest water, the calmest winds and moist air aloft. It doesn't matter unless all those ingredients are able to all relax to form a storm. The trade-winds are and have been to hostile for many years exactly 11 years now.



To b frank, he 140,000 homes and other flooded structures in Louisiana would disagree with yer synopsis.

Easily.

1100. FOREX
Quoting 1078. beell:



ok, mom.
Yes Misses Landers,lol.
1101. Broward
looks like i see a swirl sw of andros island
My thoughts.

Feels like 99L is finally holding on to it's convection. Don't remember this after yesterday's DMax.
1104. ProPoly
Quoting 1074. frank727:

99L will not form and never will. All we look at now is models that project a possible scenario. We all should be asking why? what is the cause of no major Hurricane hitting the CONUS for 11 years now. After the most prolific record season of 2005. How did it go to nothing for 11 years now. We have not had a major Hurricane in the Gulf since 2005. We have lopsided never stacked rainmakers that push storm surge like Hurricane Ike in 2008. I'm not saying that were not devastated with weather events in our country because we are. I see no major Hurricanes hitting the US this year especially the Gulf. You can have the hottest water, the calmest winds and moist air aloft. It doesn't matter unless all those ingredients are able to all relax to form a storm. The trade-winds are and have been to hostile for many years exactly 11 years now.


Repeated analysis have concluded that it's been pure luck, combined with Ike and Sandy not being S-S scale "majors" while doing a ton of damage.

There is nothing protecting CONUS.
Quoting 1102. daddyjames:

My thoughts.




and this agreed with you or vary closed

27/1145 UTC 23.7N 77.1W TOO WEAK 99L -- Atlantic
1106. BayFog
Quoting 1102. daddyjames:

My thoughts.



There's better rotation in the larger cloud mass south of that one, and much better convection.
23N 75.5, look at some rotation. Mid-level?
The blog is so focused on 99L but 91L has just as good of chances to form as 99L
Gulf temp is 87 degrees off of Fort Walton Beach today.
Dry air to the west finally mixed out.
Just in time for land interaction with Cuba.
The watching continues...

Gaston is getting primed for intensification today:



An outflow channel is setting up to its north and the upper level low to the south of it will help create an outflow channel to its south. Waters are 28-29C underneath and shear 5-15kts over the core of Gaston. He should be looking mighty fine later today :)
wish do you think will be come Hermine or IAN 1st 99L or 91L?
Quoting 1034. Thunderground:

is there a center at 23N 75.1W ?


Quoting 1034. Thunderground:

is there a center at 23N 75.1W ?


Sure appears so.
1114. hulakai
Quoting 1067. putintang3:

Quoting 1034. Thunderground:

is there a center at 23N 75.1W ?

I am no a meteorologist , but that is what my eyes are seeing. A new spin.
I don't think its new, it's bob's aspiring center. It looks like 2 lows to me and neither can develop because of the other and the shear from the NW
Quoting 1090. RavensFan:

What is sleep? Opposite of coffee? 8\

No, I'm pretty sure that the opposite of coffee is assault. j/k, people. Settle down.
Quoting 1099. Patrap:




To b frank, he 140,000 homes and other flooded structures in Louisiana would disagree with yer synopsis.

Easily.




Not to mention it hasn't been exactly 11 years for nearby nations, Dean and Felix would like a word.
Back from Autozone; was not kidding about the windshield wipers that I needed in the event that 99L brings rain into the FL Bid Bend.  While I was going to pass on comments until Monday, in looking at the current convective burst, nothing has changed in terms of any significant organization.  What has prevented development as noted by NHC and Dr. Masters has been persistent dry air in the mid-levels and moderate to high shear.  Just noting that those are the two issues that need to change before a TD can form.  Not suggesting that it cannot happen in a few days in the Gulf but suggesting that the impressive periods of convection at times over the past 3 days, including the one this morning, are meaningless and not a sign of organization "alone"; just a sign of convective persistence which is only one of the needed factors.

Will check back later or tomorrow as conditions change; now really off to take the young teenager out for her "errands" for the day as I am her only means of transportation at the moment............................................ ..
1118. Patrap
Camille33, you have wu mail from me .
Quoting 1099. Patrap:




To b frank, he 140,000 homes and other flooded structures in Louisiana would disagree with yer synopsis.

Easily.




I said major hurricanes you are taking my words out of context.
Quoting 1110. seminolesfan:

Dry air to the west finally mixed out.
Just in time for land interaction with Cuba.
The watching continues...




that may not be the center the center could be closer too 24N 77W

this and this agreeds

AL, 99, 2016082712, , BEST, 0, 234N, 779W, 25, 1009

27/1145 UTC 23.7N 77.1W TOO WEAK 99L -- Atlantic

that the center is closer too 24N
1121. FOREX
Quoting 1106. BayFog:


There's better rotation in the larger cloud mass south of that one, and much better convection.
Say again?
Quoting 1116. win1gamegiantsplease:



Not to mention it hasn't been exactly 11 years, Dean and Felix would like a word.


I think he meant for the US, but the term "major" is not the best definition. Sandy, Irene and Ike all created tremendous damage.
I find 99l to be fascinating due to its seemingly dogged determination to keep plugging along. I will be sad to see it go when it does, but at the same time, I really really don't want to see it become a major in the Gulf. So it can stay the little engine that could for a while longer. :)
Quoting 1106. BayFog:


There's better rotation in the larger cloud mass south of that one, and much better convection.


mid-level, not at the surface.
Quoting 1074. frank727:

99L will not form and never will. All we look at now is models that project a possible scenario. We all should be asking why? what is the cause of no major Hurricane hitting the CONUS for 11 years now. After the most prolific record season of 2005. How did it go to nothing for 11 years now. We have not had a major Hurricane in the Gulf since 2005. We have lopsided never stacked rainmakers that push storm surge like Hurricane Ike in 2008. I'm not saying that were not devastated with weather events in our country because we are. I see no major Hurricanes hitting the US this year especially the Gulf. You can have the hottest water, the calmest winds and moist air aloft. It doesn't matter unless all those ingredients are able to all relax to form a storm. The trade-winds are and have been to hostile for many years exactly 11 years now.


The reason: Solar Radiation Management aka Mitigation aka Chemtrails aka HAARP. At least they're getting something right.

Hurricane Field Program Update – Saturday, Aug. 27, 2016 11AM Eastern

Excerpt:

NOAA43: Was scheduled to fly a Genesis Experiment research mission into AL99 the tropical disturbance located south of Andros Island in the Bahamas with a take off time of 1800 UTC (2PM Eastern). This mission is cancelled.
1127. Patrap
Impacts,and who they affect could care less about the SSS,as it does nada for impact scaling.




Werd'


🌎
Gaston's eye almost closed:



Will likely see Gaston upgraded to a hurricane once again in the next advisory.
Well, since we're still piling onto Doc's old blog, I'd like to point out another possible player in the (non) development of 99L. There appears to be an Upper low forming along the old frontal boundary just NE of the Bahamas. perhaps not significant in and of itself, except it seems to be retrograding SW towards the E coast of Fl, and seems to have a deep pocket of dry air. Along with the large ULL in the Atlantic approaching the area from the east. If the two lows interact, and do the "Fuji" around one another, would the westernmost of the two continue SW, increasing the shear over the Invest? Just a little something to keep this enjoyable discussion of pro v non development discussion going.
Quoting 1104. ProPoly:



Repeated analysis have concluded that it's been pure luck, combined with Ike and Sandy not being S-S scale "majors" while doing a ton of damage.

There is nothing protecting CONUS.


I'm not saying that were not devastated with weather events in our country because we are. A sentence from my post. I didn't say there is something protecting the CONUS?
Quoting 1125. LovetoaMuse:



The reason: Solar Radiation Management aka Mitigation aka Chemtrails aka HAARP. At least they're getting something right.




What on earth is this
1132. FOREX
Quoting 1125. LovetoaMuse:



The reason: Solar Radiation Management aka Mitigation aka Chemtrails aka HAARP. At least they're getting something right.


Looks like more emails have been located.
Quoting 1099. Patrap:




To b frank, he 140,000 homes and other flooded structures in Louisiana would disagree with yer synopsis.

Easily.




Your taking my words out of context. I said "I'm not saying that were not devastated with weather events in our country because we are"
Quoting 1131. win1gamegiantsplease:



What on earth is this


I would imagine it is rain hitting the radome and lack of adequate post processing of radar data.

Cuba, FTW!
1135. FOREX
Quoting 1131. win1gamegiantsplease:



What on earth is this
100L
1136. Patrap
A Cuban radar n synth clear mode for calibration is not haarp.

This is not GLP nor LOP.



1137. BayFog
Quoting 1128. Envoirment:

Gaston's eye almost closed:



Will likely see Gaston upgraded to a hurricane once again in the next advisory.

By appearances, not a fish storm, but a lobster.
Storms Are fanning out on 99l now, could be indicating that the environment is a little more favorable than in days past but yet to have seen anything that indicates there is any type of circulation. Idk if Florida needs rain but some people have been indicating on here thst Florida could use it, meaning this wave could be beneficial for them.
1139. Patrap
Quoting 1136. Patrap:

A Cuban radar n synth clear mode for calibration is not haarp.

This is not GLP nor LOP.






I do fully believe that OP was making a very good joke. :)
Quoting 1106. BayFog:


There's better rotation in the larger cloud mass south of that one, and much better convection.



Looks to me like the yellow circle is round what low level circulation there is, and the red is closer to mid-level circulation. Still a good way to go to get stacked.

The lower level circulation that was just present yesterday, looked immensely better before it dissipated, than what's there today. Though it is trying!
Edit- this is would be from going by https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind /surface/level/orthographic=-82.36,17.57,3000;

in case anyone who's not got me blocked wonders what I'm on about LOL
1142. beell
Quoting 1102. daddyjames:

My thoughts.




My thoughts.
KEEP UP THE GR8 JOB DR MASTERS.....
Quoting 1142. beell:



My thoughts.



Its like instructions from IKEA!
Quoting 1141. mitthbevnuruodo:




Looks to me like the yellow circle is round what low level circulation there is, and the red is closer to mid-level circulation. Still a good way to go to get stacked.

The lower level circulation that was just present yesterday, looked immensely better before it dissipated, than what's there today. Though it is trying!


The red circle indicates where the new LLC is trying to form
1147. Cogonc1
Did someone poke it with a stick?
While we all discuss 99L we have to keep our eye on 91L. Several models show it making landfall along the US east coast.
Quoting 1142. beell:



My thoughts.



I'm gonna put you on ignore :P

Edit: You march logger!
1150. CW7859
Quoting 1131. win1gamegiantsplease:



What on earth is this


That's an Alien Hurricane from Alpha Centauri, quick put on your tinfoil hats!!
Ok All,
I'm out for the day and will check
back in tonight.... :o)

You All have a great day and play nice....

Taco :o)
1152. Patrap


1153. ProPoly
Quoting 1130. frank727:



I'm not saying that were not devastated with weather events in our country because we are. A sentence from my post. I didn't say there is something protecting the CONUS?


And my point is you are focusing on an arbitrary and not particularly useful distinction to raise this question. The SS scale almost got thousands of people killed in Ike because it was "only" a Cat 2 and so they stayed on Galveston Island and in the surge zone south of Houston. What difference does it possibly make that Ike had 110mph winds at landfall with 950mb pressure instead of 115, especially when it had a surge consistent with a Cat 3/4 due to the size that was keeping the winds down.
everyone talking about 99l but no one talking about how impressive Lester looks.

Quoting 1146. daddyjames:



The red circle indicates where the new LLC is trying to form


Well it looks like that's where the mid-level is, so it would be a very good place for it to do that....though guess won't matter much to its' development if it went into Cuba anyway LOL
12Z GFS does not really develop 99L, but keeps it in the Eastern Gulf
Quoting 1152. Patrap:






That one model really wants to be friends with WKC!
Quoting 1155. mitthbevnuruodo:




Well it looks like that's where the mid-level is, so it would be a very good place for it to do that....though guess won't matter much to its' development if it went into Cuba anyway LOL


You can already see the shear having an impact on it. It'll soon be streaking through the straights as well.
1159. ChiThom
Meanwhile, up here in the hinterland, we have had another two inches of rain overnight. I don't mean to interrupt the flow of the hurricane watch, though.
Really would be interesting to see how quickly 99L could get things going once the mlc sits atop the llc.

Quoting 1132. FOREX:

Looks like more emails have been located.


Quoting 1154. masiello3:

everyone talking about 99l but no one talking about how impressive Lester looks.

Yeah, there's a lot going on besides 99L. Lester and Madeline both strengthening and both heading in the general direction of Hawaii. Gaston strengthening. And Lionrock, of course, continuing to churn in the West Pac. That time of year though.

Quoting 1154. masiello3:

everyone talking about 99l but no one talking about how impressive Lester looks.


Lester is in the E PAC too where it dos not hit any thing thats why where not talking about it
Quoting 1111. Envoirment:

Gaston is getting primed for intensification today:



An outflow channel is setting up to its north and the upper level low to the south of it will help create an outflow channel to its south. Waters are 28-29C underneath and shear 5-15kts over the core of Gaston. He should be looking mighty fine later today :)


Can't wait
1164. GetReal


Finally covering up???
looks like gaston is moving W
1166. beell
Quoting 1149. daddyjames:



I'm gonna put you on ignore :P

Edit: You march logger!


Go ahead. I am going to my room to be alone with my thoughts for a while.
Quoting 1164. GetReal:



Finally covering up???


yep at 23 too 24N is where i put it
This was on my local weather app this morning.

'99-L no threat to SWLA'

Sounds good to me.
1169. FOREX
Quoting 1160. win1gamegiantsplease:

Really would be interesting to see how quickly 99L could get things going once the mlc sits atop the llc.




Watch, when 99L finally makes it to the Gulf in about 3 weeks, shear will be in the 80 to 90 zone.
looks like s florida will go threw some of the bad stuff but the keys will be down right nasty
Quoting 1126. nrtiwlnvragn:

Hurricane Field Program Update – Saturday, Aug. 27, 2016 11AM Eastern

Excerpt:

NOAA43: Was scheduled to fly a Genesis Experiment research mission into AL99 the tropical disturbance located south of Andros Island in the Bahamas with a take off time of 1800 UTC (2PM Eastern). This mission is cancelled.


Well, that says a lot. Catch you all later, I have to get to work . . .
Quoting 1160. win1gamegiantsplease:

Really would be interesting to see how quickly 99L could get things going once the mlc sits atop the llc.








whats keep the Political comments and photos out of the blog thanks
1174. FOREX
Quoting 1157. mitthbevnuruodo:



That one model really wants to be friends with WKC!
that model is initiated from his personal weather station.
Quoting 1166. beell:



Go ahead. I am going to my room to be alone with my thoughts for a while.


99L driving you crazy?
1176. CW7859
Quoting 1146. daddyjames:



The red circle indicates where the new LLC is trying to form


Thought I'd jazzy it up a bit! Orange circle and triangle is the MLC, blue clouds and red lightning bolts indicate heavy rain :)

looks like the afternoon wall-o-shear is pulsing down the east coast of florida in the direction of poor 99L
Winds in parts of Abaco are over 20mph.
1179. beell
Quoting 1175. daddyjames:



99L driving you crazy?


Some would say that is a "short trip"-but, no. It's become a part of my life.
GFS keeps 99L along the west coast of Florida
Quoting 1178. MeteorologistTV:

Winds in parts of Abaco are over 20mph.


any W winds out there that may show that this has a closed low?
1182. DehSoBe
Quoting 1170. Mikla:

Link


Appears to be picking up a little speed and more of a NW movement instead of due West.
I'm not sold on the development of 99L. However, there is that new tropical wave expected to exit Africa in about 4 days and could develop quickly. This wave looks likely to continue on a more westward path and will definitely be interesting to watch. Let's just hope it isn't 99L 2.0.
Quoting 1183. HurricaneFan:

I'm not sold on the development of 99L. However, there is that new tropical wave expected to exit Africa in about 4 days and could develop quickly. This wave looks likely to continue on a more westward path and will definitely be interesting to watch. Let's just hope it isn't 99L 2.0.



dont forget 91L lol
Quoting 1183. HurricaneFan:

I'm not sold on the development of 99L. However, there is that new tropical wave expected to exit Africa in about 4 days and could develop quickly. This wave looks likely to continue on a more westward path and will definitely be interesting to watch. Let's just hope it isn't 99L 2.0.

If it heads anywhere close to where 99L 1.0 is, I am all for 99L 2.0!
Quoting 988. ackee:

Over the past several Hurricane season the Atlantic season as either perform below average to the other basin or produce tropical system that as struggle what do you think is the main factor ?

A Dry Air
B Dust from Africa
C below normal Ocean Heat
D high shear
E we are heading in a Below active period
F All of the above


All of the above except C
is the Weather Channel still going to be reporting on this storm from Key Biscayne, Florida?.
Quoting 1153. ProPoly:



And my point is you are focusing on an arbitrary and not particularly useful distinction to raise this question. The SS scale almost got thousands of people killed in Ike because it was "only" a Cat 2 and so they stayed on Galveston Island and in the surge zone south of Houston. What difference does it possibly make that Ike had 110mph winds at landfall with 950mb pressure instead of 115, especially when it had a surge consistent with a Cat 3/4 due to the size that was keeping the winds down.


You are mocking me and many others because of a valid event that has been happening for 11 years. It just seems extremely odd that a blob can't form when computer models say they can. We are in uncharted territory now and all you can do is take my words out of context. I said in my op that I'm not saying that were not devastated with weather events in our country because we are.
From the last entry

Quoting 680. hurrikanehunter14:

Anyone have any interest yet in 91L?



Yes. If it gets renamed Fiona and comes to NC I'm fist-fighting it.

Quoting 676. recordfinder:


In geology we say "The past is the key to the present" and vice versa. We have a firm understanding of what the climate was in the past thanks to geology.  We know how long earth's heating and cooling periods were and what caused them including sea level rise and fall, by studying geologic evidence and using carbon dating.  We can see recent tangible evidence to understand how quickly our planet is warming.  We can clearly see, and have plenty of evidence, that humans are causing global warming due to our technological advances that enable us to quickly alter the earth's climate within decades instead of tens of thousands to millions of years. 
I can't comprehend how anyone can argue against this evidence.  Thankfully, there is no debate within learning institutions and there is some hope that our younger generations will figure out this problem of epic proportions.  Unfortunately we have left this problem to our children to figure out and it may be too late. 




Welp [Link]
Quoting 1179. beell:



Some would say that is a "short trip"-but, no. It's become a part of my life.


Always thought the ECMWF was a bit too aggressive regarding the speed it would move through this region of the world. Then again, if it had been able to do what the ECMWF was indicating, the surrounding environment would have been much different than it is now.
1191. FOREX
Quoting 1170. Mikla:

Link

do u think the true area we should focus on is just off the Cuban coast or to the NE where the convection is showing a wrap around motion??????????????????????
1192. hydrus
Quoting 1188. frank727:



You are mocking me and many others because of a valid event that has been happening for 11 years. It just seems extremely odd that a blob can't form when computer models say they can. We are in uncharted territory now and all you can do is take my words out of context. I said in my op that I'm not saying that were not devastated with weather events in our country because we are.


Computer models indicate what potentially may happen, not necessarily what will happen. And the GFS indicated that this could happen . . .
Convection starting to pop near the center of 99L!!
well i be back when the tropic weather out look come out going too go too town and to are walmart too pay PG&G bill will be back later too check up on 99L and every thing else
Quoting 1187. MeteorologistTV:

is the Weather Channel still going to be reporting on this storm from Key Biscayne, Florida?.


As long as TWC is footing the bill . . . can you blame them?
Quoting 1160. win1gamegiantsplease:

Really would be interesting to see how quickly 99L could get things going once the mlc sits atop the llc.






Gaston is about to make its run to major hurricane status in the next 48 hours. Let's see if he can make it!

1199. hydrus
Quoting 1182. DehSoBe:


Appears to be picking up a little speed and more of a NW movement instead of due West.
That is going to be a significant storm...South Florida ( especially the Keys ) should prepare for tropical storm conditions....JMO

1200. GetReal
Mike Siedel is going to be reporting on the broken twigs is Miami.
Is there a recon scheduled for 99L? For some reason the link at the NHC isn't working for me.
1203. FOREX
Quoting 1187. MeteorologistTV:

is the Weather Channel still going to be reporting on this storm from Key Biscayne, Florida?.
Not sure, saw some fat guys headed for them woods a few minutes ago.
Will be interesting to see if this 91L creates a big mess for NC/SC later on this week or if it just fizzles out before it can reach us...

Infrared Satellite for Southeast Atlantic
Quoting 1202. pilotswx:

Is there a recon scheduled for 99L? For some reason the link at the NHC isn't working for me.

I thought it was supposed to be at 11:30...
Outflow boundaries starting to appear on the southern edge of the convection at midlevels. Shear impinging on the northern part. Not a good sign for the rest of the day for 99L. Reboot time.

Quoting 1202. pilotswx:

Is there a recon scheduled for 99L? For some reason the link at the NHC isn't working for me.
Quoting 1205. SecretStormNerd:


I thought it was supposed to be at 11:30...


Everything has been cancelled for the day.
1208. FOREX
Quoting 1205. SecretStormNerd:


I thought it was supposed to be at 11:30...
I think it was canceled.
Good Day from North Americas Left Coast......Soo Cal in particular. How is our "little fren" 99L doing today? More of the same behavior? Models in any agreement after the 12z runs? Or are we still in watch, wait and see mode. I do wish you all a fine day and the last few here in So Cal have been great........temps in 80's in August are just icing on the cake.
Quoting 1205. SecretStormNerd:


I thought it was supposed to be at 11:30...

I think it changed to 2pm
What an annoying system

1212. FOREX
Quoting 1201. MeteorologistTV:

Mike Siedel is going to be reporting on the broken twigs is Miami.
You should change your handle. You have made several comments this week that are childish.People new to this blog and see "Meteorology TV" and may actually believe you are a serious entity or news outlet when you are nothing but a clown.Think about other people, maybe elderly or disabled people who may look at you for advice because of your handle before making moronic posts.
1213. Grothar
Oh, Mr. Henson??
Starting to make a life! We will have to wait what the next model run start to show related to this change.
I am offering free counseling for all WU members.
1216. GetReal
Link 99L is still semi-exposed and still moving almost due west. There is new convection starting up to the west and SW of the swirl.

CaribBoy may get his storm after all!
1218. FOREX
Quoting 1194. opal92nwf:

Convection starting to pop near the center of 99L!!
Where do u have the center?
1220. JRRP7

looks like hurricane Luis 1995 with that wsw movement

Surfs Up, the Homeys are headed to Hawaii...
Quoting 1194. opal92nwf:

Convection starting to pop near the center of 99L!!


I don't even know what that means anymore
Ninety nine, Ninety nine, Ninety nine, Ninety nine, Ninety nine,Ninety nine
This look familiar? From 4 years ago.

Link
Quoting 1223. washingaway:

Ninety nine, Ninety nine, Ninety nine, Ninety nine, Ninety nine,Ninety nine


Thats funny LOL Agood chuckle to start my day on America Left Coast!
1227. IKE
GFS showing very little on 99L and 91L. Looks like the next "game" will be a Cape Verde runner.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1229. FOREX
Quoting 1222. win1gamegiantsplease:



I don't even know what that means anymore
Who do the Giants open up against this year? My Cowboys I have boycotted until they have released all of their Wife-beaters. Going to just follow my Boise State Broncos who have zero Top 25 teams on their schedule this season. SIGH.


The Real Thing...
Quoting 1191. FOREX:

do u think the true area we should focus on is just off the Cuban coast or to the NE where the convection is showing a wrap around motion??????????????????????

Both. There is an elongated circulation running SE to NW parallel to the coast of Cuba just to the south of Andros Island. The mean center is somewhere between the low level circulation and the mid level circulation. You can see Tstorms developing and moving WSW along the coast of Cuba and clouds getting pulled in from eastern Cuba toward the north. This is starting to pull together and could become a depression in the next 48-72 hours. And to all those declaring 99L dead - if there is a low pressure area with convection, in a moderate shear environment, over 85°F+ water, that is a foolish statement and demonstrates a lack of understanding of tropical development.
Quoting 1222. win1gamegiantsplease:



I don't even know what that means anymore


You all have me laughing already.........thanks for a good start to the day!
1233. CW7859
Quoting 1226. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Thats funny LOL Agood chuckle to start my day on America Left Coast!


omg I saw this and this immediately came to mind lol....



Link
99l is that a rugged eye like feature????


XD Wow nice.
1236. K8eCane
Quoting 1160. win1gamegiantsplease:

Really would be interesting to see how quickly 99L could get things going once the mlc sits atop the llc.







Sorry for off topic! I was at the wilmington rally and he did not threaten hillary! Wonder what 91L will do?
1237. OKsky
Is it normal for the site to redirect to your profile page when you click on "ignore user" and for the flag button to seem to do nothing? I suspect there might be some bugs. :/
What's your weather point?

Quoting 1236. K8eCane:




Sorry for off topic! I was at the wilmington rally and he did not threaten hillary! Wonder what 91L will do?
Quoting 1236. K8eCane:




Sorry for off topic! I was at the wilmington rally and he did not threaten hillary! Wonder what 91L will do?
91 L wont be a great rain producer, 99L is a long story of blah, blah, blah, ,maybe yes, maybe will grow to a monster, or just a wimp, nothing substantial, just threats,... maybe no so off topic after all....
1241. vis0
ImgLand.net image
oops incorrect Lyrics.
Quoting... JRRP7:


looks like hurricane Luis 1995 with that wsw movement
Quoting ... CaribBoy:



XD Wow nice.


Hurricane Luis of unhappy memory (1995) was unfortunately quite an intense and deadly hurricane. It was no 'walk in the park' or fun for those who fell into its trail of destruction in the North eastern Caribbean islands...Seeing a potential system even close to the likes of Hurricane Luis upon the islands by the start of the week after would not be something to be actually thrilled about given the Historical destructive capability of such storms (not to mention a predicted WSW movement nearing the islands). Severe Cape Verde storms are not to be trifled with - a warning to the wise; always be Very careful what You wish for- because You just might...

Let's All continue to keep safe & prudent this Hurricane season.

God Bless!
1243. markot
ecfl 99 is become better organized. not falling apart.