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Taking Its Time, 99L Remains a Potential Threat for Florida, Gulf

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 10:20 PM GMT on August 25, 2016

The watching and waiting continues for Invest 99L as it rolls toward The Bahamas. 99L remained a very large but very disorganized tropical wave on Thursday afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows one circulation near the extreme southeastern portion of the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands. This circulation is largely naked, with little cloudiness around it, although some filling-in was evident late Thursday afternoon. Air Force Hurricane Hunters found winds of tropical-storm force in 99L early Thursday, but since the circulation was not fully closed, it could not yet be classified as a tropical depression or tropical storm. On their second mission of the day, Air Force Hurricane Hunters found that winds to the east of this not-quite-closed circulation had decreased by early afternoon Thursday to just below tropical storm force.

Well south of the storm-free circulation center of 99L, very intense thunderstorms were developing late Thursday afternoon along the north coast of Haiti and the Dominican Republic, while decreasing on the south side of the island. Most provinces of the Dominican Republic were on flood alert Thursday evening, and rivers were already surging according to an Associated Press report.

Based on the Thursday afternoon flight data, NHC’s Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 2:00 pm EDT Thursday reduced the odds that 99L will develop into at least a tropical depression to 40% by Saturday and 70% by Tuesday. The slow pace of development thus far isn’t a total shock, as a number of computer models suggested as far back as Monday night that 99L would be no more a mid-strength tropical storm at best by this point. However, the lack of development at this point will keep 99L from growing as intense as it otherwise might have been by this weekend.


Figure 1. Visible image of Invest 99L as of 2045Z (4:45 pm EDT) Thursday, August 25, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.


Figure 2. Enhanced infrared image of Invest 99L as of 2045Z (4:45 pm EDT) Thursday, August 25, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

99L remains a potential threat for Florida and other Gulf Coast states
It’s too soon to completely write off 99L as a threat to Florida, as it still has at least 48 hours to organize before reaching the area. The wave remains a potentially significant threat to the Gulf of Mexico coast next week. Up to now, a substantial amount of vertical wind shear has helped to displace the upper- and lower-level portions of 99L, while also driving large amounts of dry air into the wave. The University of Wisconsin-CIMSS wind shear analysis from Thursday afternoon was still showing a high 25 knots of wind shear over the core of 99L, which likely accounts for the inability of the storm to develop any heavy thunderstorm activity at its center of circulation. This state of affairs may change in the near future, though. Wind shear as analyzed by the SHIPS model is forecast to fall below 15 knots by Friday afternoon and then to remain in the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, through Tuesday.

Along with the reduced wind shear on Friday and Saturday, 99L will be traveling over very warm waters (around 30°C or 86°F). Since tropical waves often develop convection overnight, we’ll have to see if 99L can form a core of showers and thunderstorms around its low-level center during this usual noctural peak. If it does, the chances of a substantial tropical storm reaching Florida will rise significantly.


Figure 3. Vertical wind shear (shown here as the difference between winds at the 200- and 850-mb heights, or between about 40,00 and 5000 feet) at 18Z (2:00 pm EDT) Thursday, August 25, 2016. Northerly shear of greater than 20 knots has prevailed over 99L, but the wave will be moving into an area of lower wind shear this weekend. Image credit: tropicaltidbits.com.

99L is likely heading toward the Gulf of Mexico
The lack of a well-defined center makes it more difficult for computer models to predict the track and intensity of 99L. If a center does consolidate, it appears likely to move in a general west-northwest direction that would bring it near the southern Florida peninsula late Saturday or Sunday. A slight bend toward the west, as suggested by the ECMWF model, could allow 99L to miss the peninsula entirely, perhaps crossing the Florida Straits. In either case, 99L appears likely to enter the eastern Gulf of Mexico by the start of next week. Conditions in the eastern Gulf will favor development, and the ECMWF, UKMET, and HWRF models have been largely consistent in showing 99L intensifying across the Gulf, perhaps well beyond hurricane strength. The GFS is stubbornly in the other camp, continuing to insist that 99L will not develop significantly.

NOAA/RAMMB has this excellent 1-minute resolution loop of 99L. You can really see how an upper level anticyclone centered to the east of 99L is bringing strong southerly upper-level winds to the south of 99L, blowing the tops of the thunderstorms from south to north over Cuba and Hispaniola.

A multi-day animation from the Navy is excellent, too.

We’ll be back with an update by midday Friday.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 993. StormTrackerScott:

Folks please don't let your guard down on 99L as models are trending stronger now with each cycle especially the latest run coming out at 9am. I expect we are going to see a hurricane in the Eastern Gulf turning toward the FL Big Bend. Also 99L does seem to be organizing now and NHC will have egg on their face for cancelling the recon into 99L today.

Convection is firing very near the center.


omg please stop already.... you have been saying this thing is comming for 6 days now... and now its down to 20%
Quoting 978. VAbeachhurricanes:



Wow a lot more intensity models develop 99L than yesterday... Not expecting that lol thought this morning was gonna be a depressed blog.


Even the GFS is stronger. 99L is going to get ramped up today, Could see TS Hermaine tomorrow or early Sunday.
1003. IDTH




Glad I never stopped watching this storm because it truly is proving to me that "It isn't over until the fat lady sings"
Quoting 999. Grothar:

The reason the HH hunters were flying to the north of 99L yesterday was evident in that they were testing the atmospheric conditions to see if a possibility existed of a reformation. This was seen by a lot of analyses.


If there is, we'll be in for a wet Sunday thru Tues, Gro.
1005. LargoFl
Euro has 99 here Tuesday then crosses florida back to the atlantic.................
we are ready for hot and sunny conditions here on east coast florida with a gusts up to 12mph through tuesday.. maybe a few drops of rain
watching that huge trough comming down that should keep this 99l thing from going to far north and west come monday
Quoting 1001. mamothmiss:

omg please stop already.... you have been saying this thing is comming for 6 days now... and now its down to 20%


#comming
Also 99L has really thrown on the brakes the past 24 hours, which is always a danger.
1010. CW7859
Quoting 964. Sfloridacat5:



I agree. This is the new area to watch for a new center to form. Levi explained this transition in his video last night (that a new dominant low would most likely form to the north).


That can't be the same swirl from last night right? Did it stop last night after the sun went down and do some sort of ninja switch-a-roo? Or is that a new LLC trying to develop?
1011. scott39
Today is my birthday and my MJO will be in the atmosphere .... 99L will feel it...and yes...I left the O out on purpose:)
1012. IDTH



If you live in these areas, please take shelter.
I can't stress enough the concern I have for 99L going thru the Florida Straits with light shear later this weekend. A track as this is dangerous folks for Rapid Intensification and then you factor in the bend back NE toward Cedar Key. This has the potential to be a significant system in a few days. The fact the the NHC is lowering chances when models are trending stronger is strange.
Quoting 1010. CW7859:



That can't be the same swirl from last night right? Did it stop last night after the sun went down and do some sort of ninja switch-a-roo? Or is that a new LLC trying to develop?


No, that swirl most likely dissipated because it had no support.
Not an official forecast. lol This one started in my head on the way to work. Feel free to add your own verse. Not intended to offend anyone, and not directed at anyone in particular.

To be sung to "American Pie" by Don McLean

So bye bye 99L just died
Took my laptop to the Starbucks for the free Wi-Fi
Those good old boys on the blog just cried
Singin why is the Atlantic so dry?
Why is the Atlantic so dry?

Did you buy the Euros track?
And did you think the GFS was smoking crack?
Then some of us told you so, lol
And do you believe in Saharan Dust?
And this season will be a total bust
If the experts said it was so

Well I just put you on ignore again
Cause I just caught you wishcastin
They just put out the TWO
Man, Florida is really screwed

I was a middle-aged blogging buck
Who was just afraid of getting stuck
In contra flow behind a garbage truck
The day the blog cried
I started singin

So bye bye 99L just died
Took my laptop to the Starbucks for the free Wi-Fi
Those good old boys on the blog just cried
Singin why is the Atlantic so dry?
Why is the Atlantic so dry?

Edit.


happy/birthday 39 mjo is in the air
99L looks to be trying, some spin certainly noted around 22.5N 75W, give or take. Time will tell. Convection seems to be on the increase there though. That is not the same swirl from yesterday, that was farther south and is no longer evident on satellite imagery, think it self-destructed in the mountains of Cuba.
99L is all about nothing.I feel so stupid worrying both my husband and family about a sheared mess.Next time I will truly have to see it to believe it and will just keep my mouth shut to them.I feel so embarrassed now :(.
Here's a better view.
Link
1021. IDTH
Quoting 1015. HaoleboySurfEC:

Not an official forecast. lol This one started in my head on the way to work. Feel free to add your own verse. Not intended to offend anyone. and not directed at anyone in particular.

To be sung to "American Pie" by Don McLean

So bye bye 99L just died
Took my laptop to the Starbucks for the free Wi-Fi
Those good old boys on the blog just cried
Singin why’s the Atlantic so dry?
Why’s the Atlantic so dry?

Did you buy the Euro’s track?
And did you think the GFS was smoking crack?
Then some of us “told you so” lol
And do you believe in Saharan Dust?
And this season will be a total bust
If the experts said it was so

Well I just put you on ignore again
‘Cause I just caught you wishcastin’
They just put out the “TWO”
Man, Florida is really screwed

I was a middle-aged blogging buck
Who was just afraid of getting stuck
In contra flow behind a garbage truck
The day the blog cried
I started singin’

So bye bye 99L just died
Took my laptop to the Starbucks for the free Wi-Fi
Those good old boys on the blog just cried
Singin why’s the Atlantic so dry?
Why’s the Atlantic so dry?




It's not over yet but I found this to be quite clever.
Quoting 1009. VAbeachhurricanes:

Also 99L has really thrown on the brakes the past 24 hours, which is always a danger.


Folks that thrown in the towel on 99L may soon be in shock as we are seeing 99L organize this morning. Katrina in this same are early that morning before it hit S FL looked identical to 99L as it is now. You really have to watch these systems in this area especially as its heading into virtually no shear later today or tomorrow.
Quoting 1002. StormTrackerScott:



Even the GFS is stronger. 99L is going to get ramped up today, Could see TS Hermaine tomorrow or early Sunday.


Scott,

By the looks of things, I'm not too sure that will be the case the next 48 hours. The 500mb vort is stuck over Hispaniola without any progress. I expect more of the same today with off/on convection, that gets blown off repeatedly until it manages to find a sweet spot near the keys. Shear is the problem, and will continue to be the main culprit.
One of these days I will understand SHIPS when it shows a cyclone over land (negative sign in Land (KM) row) and a HEAT CONTENT of the ocean going off the scale. :(


Hilarious Haoleboy.....................LOL!
Quoting 1018. washingtonian115:

99L is all about nothing.I feel so stupid worrying both my husband and family about a sheared mess.Next time I will truly have to see it to believe and will just keep my mouth shut to them.I feel so embarrassed now :(.


There is still a very good chance 99L will become a tropical storm and landfall in the Florida Panhandle region.
The Euro has been showing this area for a landfall for days. It's still too early to completely write off 99L.
1027. Matt74
Quoting 989. weathermanwannabe:

I have no opinion on 99L this morning and will only watch and wait................Hopefully, I will not have a Cat 3 by my doorstep in the Big Bend of Florida by Monday or Tuesday per some of the current models posted below................This sucker will not go away:



21.5n 74.1 w ... Looks like an eye is forming
1028. Grothar


Currently under 30kts windshear, moving into lower shear.



Very small weakness in ridge



1029. IDTH
The next 12 to 36 hours will show 99L's true colors.

Also if you haven't heard, Indiana has a tornado warning right now. It actually looks quite significant.


1030. LargoFl
Quoting 972. weathermanwannabe:

On a related note, we are still about two weeks away from the peak of the Cape Verde Season; Africa spun off Gaston and now we have a few weeks to see what else may turn up. Looking East, there are a few waves on the Continent but a nice plume of SAL is currently shutting down and suppressing the Central Atlantic ITCZ.................Might not have anything on the radar at this rate until early to mid-September:






SAL! That's my favorite meteorological event! I love tracking those big plumes of dust and dry air that murderize CV's in their infancy.
Disclaimer, not my opinion. had to go with what rhymed. lol.

Quoting 1021. IDTH:


It's not over yet but I found this to be quite clever.
Quoting 1015. HaoleboySurfEC:

Not an official forecast. lol This one started in my head on the way to work. Feel free to add your own verse. Not intended to offend anyone. and not directed at anyone in particular.

To be sung to "American Pie" by Don McLean

So bye bye 99L just died
Took my laptop to the Starbucks for the free Wi-Fi
Those good old boys on the blog just cried
Singin why’s the Atlantic so dry?
Why’s the Atlantic so dry?

Did you buy the Euro’s track?
And did you think the GFS was smoking crack?
Then some of us “told you so” lol
And do you believe in Saharan Dust?
And this season will be a total bust
If the experts said it was so

Well I just put you on ignore again
‘Cause I just caught you wishcastin’
They just put out the “TWO”
Man, Florida is really screwed

I was a middle-aged blogging buck
Who was just afraid of getting stuck
In contra flow behind a garbage truck
The day the blog cried
I started singin’

So bye bye 99L just died
Took my laptop to the Starbucks for the free Wi-Fi
Those good old boys on the blog just cried
Singin why’s the Atlantic so dry?
Why’s the Atlantic so dry?






.....uhhh, no HaoleBoy......this one --> Link
8-10 days Upper level set up, calls for the return of the troughs.

Quoting 1022. StormTrackerScott:



Folks that thrown in the towel on 99L may soon be in shock as we are seeing 99L organize this morning. Katrina in this same are early that morning before it hit S FL looked identical to 99L as it is now. You really have to watch these systems in this area especially as its heading into virtually no shear later today or tomorrow.


i agreed 99L is starting to organize quick this AM
Quoting 1035. thetwilightzone:



i agreed 99L is starting to organize quick this AM
IT WAS STRATING TO DEVELOP QUICK EVERY MORNING FOR THE PAST 6 MORNINGS
1037. IDTH
Quoting 1032. HaoleboySurfEC:

Disclaimer, not my opinion. had to go with what rhymed. lol.



Oh trust me I don't believe you were throwing jabs or it was your actual opinion.

I'm sure you've grown just about as sick of 99L as anyone else on this blog.
1038. barbamz
Quoting 896. nrtiwlnvragn:

Neked Swirl not so naked?


1 minute loop you can zoom, move around.

Terrific link! Thank you.
Zooming in you can really watch a new COC forming.
1039. Grothar
Quoting 1000. tiggeriffic:



Camille poofed it


GRRRR!
The ecfl shield remains huge and strong, but we will get prepared anyways as they keep saying we get a storm
Quoting 1026. Sfloridacat5:



There is still a very good chance 99L will become a tropical storm and landfall in the Florida Panhandle region.
The Euro has been showing this area for a landfall for days. It's still too early to completely write off 99L.
Our vacation home is in south Florida though and now 99L is not looking to be to much of a problem.
Quoting 1023. TampaShieldV1:



Scott,

By the looks of things, I'm not too sure that will be the case the next 48 hours. The 500mb vort is stuck over Hispaniola without any progress. I expect more of the same today with off/on convection, that gets blown off repeatedly until it manages to find a sweet spot near the keys. Shear is the problem, and will continue to be the main culprit.
Shear is lessoning as we type...and this is not the mini vorticity we saw the past few days...this is the system as a whole spinning.
Would someone with skills mind posting a graphic of Tuesday's track guidance superimposed with actual track of 99L?
Will only comment, pursuant to my earlier post as to struggling storms in the Western Atlantic and Caribbean in recent years, that the warm waters of the Bahamas and Gulf Stream, well away from the SAL layer, have produced some of the most memorable storms of recent decades when shear relaxes in that region.............



We could see a Tropical Storm by 11pm in the Bahamas. #eyesontheskies
99L is really starting too blow up this Am am starting too see deeper reds on 99L so may be hot towers


remember gfs about two weeks ago with a weak cyclone over Miami. 99 making a run.
1048. IDTH
Quoting 1038. barbamz:


Terrific link! Thank you.
Zooming in you can really watch a new COC forming.

I feel the same, that graphic is fantastic!
The Hispanolia mountains will kill any weak system. Some of those mountains are over 10,400 feet. Past hurricanes that crossed south florida did not cross or even get close to Hispanolia. That includes Andrew, Donna, 1935 Labor Day storm, and Frances.


the little engine that could ?
Don't post much. But would someone with more knowledge than I look at what is spinning in the Caribbean. I think something is starting to brew there!
It's clear that that atmosphere in the southern Bahamas is far more moist now, shear is still rather strong though.
Quoting 1014. VAbeachhurricanes:



No, that swirl most likely dissipated because it had no support.


I think it is the same center from last night. It just became stationary and is now generating some convection. If you look, the center seems to be due W of Great Inagua and not the phantom curve up by Crooked/Acklins.
1054. IDTH
Mark Sudduth with a great blog post

Link
1055. nolajet
Quoting 1018. washingtonian115:

99L is all about nothing.I feel so stupid worrying both my husband and family about a sheared mess.Next time I will truly have to see it to believe and will just keep my mouth shut to them.I feel so embarrassed now :(.


I wouldn't beat yourself up over it. I only tell my better half the basics that need to be known (strong tropical wave, may develop, could be RI, could come here.) I don't mention that it could be DOOM, because then one view of the model runs and I have to explain how each model is different at different runs. *sigh*

Otherwise, that's part of what this blog is for. So all of us weather nutters can show up in one place and chat about what's going on with the tropics without worrying about anyone else looking at us like we just landed from outer space. :)
The way this ridge is setting up I don't think Texas to Mississippi is out of the woods yet at all.
And that means being in the warm gulf for a lot longer.
Time will tell
Quoting 1018. washingtonian115:

99L is all about nothing.I feel so stupid worrying both my husband and family about a sheared mess.Next time I will truly have to see it to believe and will just keep my mouth shut to them.I feel so embarrassed now :(.


lol, you should be
Quoting 1042. Abacosurf:

Shear is lessoning as we type...and this is not the mini vorticity we saw the past few days...this is the system as a whole spinning.


Still have yet to see any significant evidence of such decrease of wind shear. Though its forward motion has finally slowed to a reasonable pace, I don't expect anything different from yesterday. That 500mb vort needs to establish itself overtop to make this stronger than a tropical wave.
Link

I'm starting to wonder if the persistent convection, south of Cuba, has caused the anti-cyclone over the western Caribbean to shift northward a bit, by creating rising heights in the upper-levels of that region. If you look at the shear map above, there should be 20-30 kts of west or west-northwest shear over 99L. The Cirrus cloud deck over Cuba appears to be moving southwest to northeast, which would support the anticyclone being just southwest of there. Shear does seem to have relaxed, at least a little, near 99L. This is helping thunderstorms to finally develop just southeast of the center. Also helping could be the fact that it's getting under a more moist southwest flow, which is finally giving it some moisture to work with.
Quoting 989. weathermanwannabe:

I have no opinion on 99L this morning and will only watch and wait................Hopefully, I will not have a Cat 3 by my doorstep in the Big Bend of Florida by Monday or Tuesday per some of the current models posted below................This sucker will not go away:






Well put
1061. beell
A look at the morning soundings wrt the general environmental upper level winds on the periphery of 99L.

From top to bottom-Santo Domingo, DR, to the south, Nassau, The Commonwealth of The Bahamas, to the north, and Key West FL, to the west.

Looks fairly gentle not too terribly bad in the upper levels at this point.





Quoting 993. StormTrackerScott:

Folks please don't let your guard down on 99L as models are trending stronger now with each cycle especially the latest run coming out at 9am. I expect we are going to see a hurricane in the Eastern Gulf turning toward the FL Big Bend. Also 99L does seem to be organizing now and NHC will have egg on their face for cancelling the recon into 99L today.

Convection is firing very near the center.




There were two recon missions scheduled for today. Have they both been cancelled or just the morning one?
99L is still a disorganized mess. It may not ever get its act together. I see more activity, however, just west of Jamaica than I do elsewhere with this system at this time.
1064. LargoFl
1065. 19N81W
We just can't get any rain here it's like we have a wall around us
1066. IDTH
Quoting 1044. weathermanwannabe:

Will only comment, pursuant to my earlier post as to struggling storms in the Western Atlantic and Caribbean in recent years, that the warm waters of the Bahamas and Gulf Stream, well away from the SAL layer, have produced some of the most memorable storms of recent decades.............





Also don't forget the one's that survive the voyage to that location alive, are the ones that go onto becoming significant.
1067. LargoFl
well Euro-Gfs and possibly Hwrf models say a gulf to Atlantic crosses over for Florida..another week of watching? lol OMG
So now that we have some convection firing up in the area of either the MLC or a new LLC, now lets see if continues or if gets "blown" off like it has the past few days or if it holds and continues to grow. IF it does, then SFL REALLY needs to watch closely. With the SST's so warm we could see something form rather quickly. I think the NHC will be investigating later this afternoon if it holds. NOT wishcasting, just don't want to be caught off guard. JMO
This storm is a fighter
Quoting 1029. IDTH:

The next 12 to 36 hours will show 99L's true colors.

Also if you haven't heard, Indiana has a tornado warning right now. It actually looks quite significant.





What in the wide wide world of sports??!!! I was driving to work when I heard the sirens and warning for my area AGAIN! I've never seen an august like this (tornadoes) in naptown. Pat sent his six headed monster to the midwest this month? Sounds like few damage reports. I will say, NWS in Indy was waaaay behind on this one. 1st report of funnels from law enforcement on west side of Indy at 826a, At 830, nws indy tweeted no tornado warning, just strong storm. Link Warning not issued until 853a. 10 miles later.

NWS indy has been asleep this week.
Quoting 1046. thetwilightzone:

99L is really starting too blow up this Am am starting too see deeper reds on 99L so may be hot towers





Really starting to blow up? That's a stretch. In the summer time I see "blow ups" of this size weekly in my own back yard. If this thing can maintain convection around an identifiable center for more than 24 hours straight, we can start talking about it organizing. Until then this thing is a dud.
Quoting 1053. StormJunkie:



I think it is the same center from last night. It just became stationary and is now generating some convection. If you look, the center seems to be due W of Great Inagua and not the phantom curve up by Crooked/Acklins.



I see it. pressure around the islands have been around 1008-1010 mb this morning.
99L is finally getting a center to form near the convection. Convection is trying to wrap around the eastern side of the circulation. Give it some more time and I think it will slowly intensify.
1075. IDTH
Quoting 1071. MonsterTrough:



What in the wide wide world of sports??!!! I was driving to work when I heard the sirens and warning for my area AGAIN! I've never seen an august like this (tornadoes) in naptown. Pat sent his six headed monster to the midwest this month? Sounds like few damage reports. I will say, NWS in Indy was waaaay behind on this one. 1st report of funnels from law enforcement on west side of Indy at 826a, At 830, nws indy tweeted no tornado warning, just strong storm. Link Warning not issued until 853a. 10 miles later.

NWS indy has been asleep this week.

Yeah I've had that happen before when there should've been a warning sooner and there wasn't (or in my case, they don't even issue a warning but later find out about a Tornado, this was in april by the way).
You can really tell who are the wishcasters right now. They're the ones that are so excited 99L finally has thunderstorms kind of near the "center" the size of an isolated thunderstorm.
South Florida just keep escaping danger
Quoting 1071. MonsterTrough:



What in the wide wide world of sports??!!! I was driving to work when I heard the sirens and warning for my area AGAIN! I've never seen an august like this (tornadoes) in naptown. Pat sent his six headed monster to the midwest this month? Sounds like few damage reports. I will say, NWS in Indy was waaaay behind on this one. 1st report of funnels from law enforcement on west side of Indy at 826a, At 830, nws indy tweeted no tornado warning, just strong storm. Link Warning not issued until 853a. 10 miles later.

NWS indy has been asleep this week.


I have expected a cow to fly across the road this morning on my way into downtown Indy.
Quoting 1076. pipelines:

You can really tell who are the wishcasters right now. They're the ones that are so excited 99L finally has thunderstorms kind of near the "center" the size of an isolated thunderstorm.
Best it's looked in days!! :)
I just want to surf... without travel.
Quoting 1051. outofdablue:

Don't post much. But would someone with more knowledge than I look at what is spinning in the Caribbean. I think something is starting to brew there!
No more knowledge here. just a WAG. As far as what it is, last eve seemed to my eye on all sat loop I looked at that some of 99L's energy split, as in went that-a-way. A little bit of a 850mb vort showing (add: SW of Jamaica) per a graphic Grothar posted at 1028.

1081. IDTH
Quoting 1070. Icybubba:

This storm is a fighter

That's what I've been saying since it became a naked swirl.
It is actually there, so it is just forecasting not wishing. We report you decide!
Quoting 1076. pipelines:

You can really tell who are the wishcasters right now. They're the ones that are so excited 99L finally has thunderstorms kind of near the "center" the size of an isolated thunderstorm.
Today is the day that 99L will put on here show for us
I'm seeing a new llc, can someone verify this?
1085. IDTH
Quoting 1061. beell:

A look at the morning soundings wrt the general environmental upper level winds on the periphery of 99L.

From top to bottom-Santo Domingo, DR, to the south, Nassau, The Commonwealth of The Bahamas, to the north, and Key West FL, to the west.

Looks fairly gentle not too terribly bad in the upper levels at this point.







Thank you for posting this Beell.
NHC produces the discussions and outlooks several hours apart for a reason; to be able to discern trends over an extended period of time for any tropical system which often goes in chunks of 12-24 hours.  Too early to write off 99L and too early to call it a current blow-up................Have to see what the trend is over the next 12-24 IMHO based on the current short-term trend we are starting to see as the circulation enters the Bahamas and away from significant land interaction with Hispanola.......................This will be the third attempt to organize if memory serves me correct over the past several days (which I actually want to forget) so I understand the skepticism from a a few................................... :)
Spin in Caribbean appears to be moving NW
Quoting 1077. weatherman994:

South Florida just keep escaping danger



Don't be too sure model runs has 99L a cat 2 or 4 hurricane land falling on the W coast of Florida be for crossing over NC may be too keep eye on it for may be a 2nd land fall
Quoting 1031. bocawind:



SAL! That's my favorite meteorological event! I love tracking those big plumes of dust and dry air that murderize CV's in their infancy.


I'm sure you're real fun to party with bro...
NOT wishcasting. Def not excited. Just don't want to be caught off guard. Lived if SFL my whole life. Went through Northern eye wall of Andrew and experienced every other storm that has hit SFL. I know the potential that can happen and also know that people will let their guard down now that the NHC has lowered the chances. Just trying to be prepared, watching and waiting. I hope NO ONE has to experience a storm.
Quoting 1076. pipelines:

You can really tell who are the wishcasters right now. They're the ones that are so excited 99L finally has thunderstorms kind of near the "center" the size of an isolated thunderstorm.
Quoting 1061. beell:

A look at the morning soundings wrt the general environmental upper level winds on the periphery of 99L.

From top to bottom-Santo Domingo, DR, to the south, Nassau, The Commonwealth of The Bahamas, to the north, and Key West FL, to the west.

Looks fairly gentle not too terribly bad in the upper levels at this point.








Got the same impression from the dropsondes released by Miss Piggy this morning.


Quoting 1071. MonsterTrough:



What in the wide wide world of sports??!!! I was driving to work when I heard the sirens and warning for my area AGAIN! I've never seen an august like this (tornadoes) in naptown. Pat sent his six headed monster to the midwest this month? Sounds like few damage reports. I will say, NWS in Indy was waaaay behind on this one. 1st report of funnels from law enforcement on west side of Indy at 826a, At 830, nws indy tweeted no tornado warning, just strong storm. Link Warning not issued until 853a. 10 miles later.

NWS indy has been asleep this week.


The problem with indy is that their radar site is on the edge of the city, it gets really hard to pick out circulations when the storms are that close to the radar site.
Quoting 1084. matrcrane:

I'm seeing a new llc, can someone verify this?


Elongated one at best.
Yo.....this is a new llc look at the visibke, last frame it's tightening
As many others have said, 99L will be for sure game on if it can get some storms to fire in its northern half, everything is still to the south and east, albeit a little closer to the center.
Good Morning and Happy Friday everyone! Hot off the press! Updated shear maps from CIMSS:

With the current blow up, you can really see the V shape the wave has, that Levi was speaking about in his video.
I must still be asleep, but can you explain the impressions this gives?



Quoting 1091. nrtiwlnvragn:



Got the same impression from the dropsondes released by Miss Piggy this morning.



1099. IDTH
Quoting 1076. pipelines:

You can really tell who are the wishcasters right now. They're the ones that are so excited 99L finally has thunderstorms kind of near the "center" the size of an isolated thunderstorm.

Or you can also tell that the people who kept insisting that it wasn't dead are merely just trying to reiterate that point. 99L didn't die, I don't know why people were so insistent on 99L being dead when it still clearly still had spin associated with it and the fact shear is supposed to die down significantly in the next 12 to 36 hours if it hasn't already.
1100. Kevin77
Quoting 1038. barbamz:


Terrific link! Thank you.
Zooming in you can really watch a new COC forming.


It does seem that way, though its only an hour worth of frames. If it holds, it seems to be moving NW/WNW. It does appear that the spin up last night has/is being replaced.
Just really hard to tell at this point what the circulation center would be. There is a small, but decent spin just north of Acklins/Crooked Island... but also another one just west of Great Inagua. Still a disorganized mess this morning, but with shear dropping and moisture increasing, anything is still on the table as far as I'm concerned. Just watching and waiting to see what happens.
1102. IDTH
Quoting 1096. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Good Morning and Happy Friday everyone! Hot off the press! Updated shear maps from CIMSS:



Code yellow now off code red.
Today 99L will have a great day has it will work on closing off the low then we could see a TD by early Saturday


99L will have a grand excited happy day today
You must be new here.

Quoting 1076. pipelines:

You can really tell who are the wishcasters right now. They're the ones that are so excited 99L finally has thunderstorms kind of near the "center" the size of an isolated thunderstorm.
Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Latest shear map confirms what I was just saying...shear has relaxed to near 15-20 kts over the center of circulation. I think the burst of convection south of Cuba actually helped relax the shear aloft.
1106. Kevin77
Quoting 1096. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Good Morning and Happy Friday everyone! Hot off the press! Updated shear maps from CIMSS:




Wow, ~10 kt drop in wind shear. Lets see if trend holds..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/99L/i magery/vis-animated.gif
Check out the last frames... you can see a deepening llc with storms starting to flow around center
1108. IDTH
Quoting 1090. Neyewall:

NOT wishcasting. Def not excited. Just don't want to be caught off guard. Lived if SFL my whole life. Went through Northern eye wall of Andrew and experienced every other storm that has hit SFL. I know the potential that can happen and also know that people will let their guard down now that the NHC has lowered the chances. Just trying to be prepared, watching and waiting. I hope NO ONE has to experience a storm.

I don't live in Florida, in fact I'm not even on the coast of NC right now but I just want people to be aware and prepared if anything happens.
Quoting 1103. thetwilightzone:

Today 99L will have a great day has it will work on closing off the low then we could see a TD by early Saturday


99L will have a grand excited happy day today


Sounds like a quote from a fortune cookie.
The best environment for conductive development of 99L was supposed to be Friday into Saturday. So unless 99L still looks a mess by tomorrow night, I'm not counting the cv invest out.
people have been writing off 99L for the past 3 days when it has done exactly what forecasters predicted.....it is following the spaghetti models track from 5 days ago......99L wasn't suppose to intensify into anything until today.....


amazing how this blog is packed with people who are all about the NOW NOW NOW and if it isn't the END OF THE WORLD...RIGHT NOW!.....then the storm is a DUD....

ridiculous.....it's to the point where i don't even want to come in here, just check up on Levi's Trop. Tidbits because this blog has become a freaking insane asylum......

i will say it for the LAST TIME people.....99L was NOT EXPECTED to INTENSIFY UNTIL TODAY.....it has done EXACTLY what forecasters said it would......i swear, this place is filled with dart throwers who think they know everything :(


BTW, wild guessers and dart throwers.... wanna MAKE A BET that 99L grinds to a near halt as it starts to stack and organize today?......the high pressure ridging is moving into place across the Southern CONUS JUST LIKE was forecast.....Hermine isn't going ANYWHERE FAST ANYTIME SOON.....but she will stack, organize the CoC, and go from T.D. status into hurricane status rather quickly in the next 24-48 hours......

sorry, just trying to set the record straight.....people come here to see truth but the dart throwers and doomsday forecasters who dont know the truth from a hole in the ground destroy this blog with bullcrap blog entries.....
Quoting 1022. StormTrackerScott:



Folks that thrown in the towel on 99L may soon be in shock as we are seeing 99L organize this morning. Katrina in this same are early that morning before it hit S FL looked identical to 99L as it is now. You really have to watch these systems in this area especially as its heading into virtually no shear later today or tomorrow.


The fact you want to invoke the name Katrina to explain your needless hype for 99L is almost as hilarious as your completely false and incorrect predictions of a double El-Nino this past winter. Just stop already, you are embarrassing yourself.
Just checking in. It seems that a new llc went and formed overnight, and it's in a position where the potential energy from the SE quad isn't going to be lost due to orthographic lift over the islands. It's definitely not a guarantee that something will happen, as it's still a nasty looking mess that has lost a lot of energy fighting to get where it is, but I'm actually a little more confident in development than I was when we lost visible last night.

Also, yellow crayon in the western gulf?
Quoting 1098. zoomiami:

I must still be asleep, but can you explain the impressions this gives?






If you look at the data for each of the dropsondes the upper level wind speed is not real high, implying that the shear in the area is not as bad as it was yesterday, generally.
Quoting 1080. Barefootontherocks:

No more knowledge here. just a WAG. As far as what it is, last eve seemed to my eye on all sat loop I looked at that some of 99L's energy split, as in went that-a-way. A little bit of a 850mb vort showing (add: SW of Jamaica) per a graphic Grothar posted at 1028.


99L is starting too look a little more dangerous this am we could see rapid development and expose development with slow movement and low shear and hot bath tub waters JQ in the same area did the same thing
Gonna do a Patrap now and just post images; no more forecasting from me today and leaving that up to NHC; however you can clearly see that clearing the shear bands over the wave that have been there the past several days is doing current wonders for the circulation and convection re-organization attempt............................... . :)




Quoting 1100. Kevin77:



It does seem that way, though its only an hour worth of frames. If it holds, it seems to be moving NW/WNW. It does appear that the spin up last night has/is being replaced.


You can change the number of frames, up to 300.
Quoting 1080. Barefootontherocks:

No more knowledge here. just a WAG. As far as what it is, last eve seemed to my eye on all sat loop I looked at that some of 99L's energy split, as in went that-a-way. A little bit of a 850mb vort showing (add: SW of Jamaica) per a graphic Grothar posted at 1028.



Thanks for your response. Looking at the wind maps the spin is better there than with 99l.
1120. IDTH
Not as much vorticity as it used to have, but still there and evident.


My goodness shear has really dropped
1122. GatorWX
Morning all.

Shazaam!
;)

What is going on in the caribbean on earth school??

NHC cancels recon the morning where it looks the best? Head scratcher...

Definatley have a new center with rotation, convection in the center, nowhas slowed down and headed on a more NW path from what i can see
1125. IDTH
Quoting 1112. weatherwatcher80:



The fact you want to invoke the name Katrina to explain your needless hype for 99L is almost as hilarious as your completely false and incorrect predictions of a double El-Nino this past winter. Just stop already, you are embarrassing yourself.

He's not wrong about the area 99L is moving in to. I'd rather not get into the whole enso PDO discussion I had with him a while back, but he isn't wrong about at least expressing some concern because of the history that area has of intensifying TC's quite quickly.
Quoting 1015. HaoleboySurfEC:

Not an official forecast. lol This one started in my head on the way to work. Feel free to add your own verse. Not intended to offend anyone, and not directed at anyone in particular.

To be sung to "American Pie" by Don McLean

So bye bye 99L just died
Took my laptop to the Starbucks for the free Wi-Fi
Those good old boys on the blog just cried
Singin why is the Atlantic so dry?
Why is the Atlantic so dry?

Did you buy the Euros track?
And did you think the GFS was smoking crack?
Then some of us told you so, lol
And do you believe in Saharan Dust?
And this season will be a total bust
If the experts said it was so

Well I just put you on ignore again
Cause I just caught you wishcastin
They just put out the TWO
Man, Florida is really screwed

I was a middle-aged blogging buck
Who was just afraid of getting stuck
In contra flow behind a garbage truck
The day the blog cried
I started singin

So bye bye 99L just died
Took my laptop to the Starbucks for the free Wi-Fi
Those good old boys on the blog just cried
Singin why is the Atlantic so dry?
Why is the Atlantic so dry?

Edit.





BRILLIANT!!

The Gaston C1 has a variety of features, such as an eye and a circulation, with a strong sense of convection. Learn more at this website!
1128. GatorWX
Primary circulation appears to be off the ne coast of Cuba.
1129. Mikla
Shear has fallen from 25kts to 15 kts with more storms near the center. We'll see if this amounts to anything.
1130. Grothar
1131. beell
Quoting 1091. nrtiwlnvragn:



Got the same impression from the dropsondes released by Miss Piggy this morning.





Thanks for the confirmation, nrt. Didn't have time this morning to dive into those. Shouldn't be here now! I love 'em! Took the quick way out with a small sample of the station soundings.
1132. GatorWX
Quoting 1106. Kevin77:



Wow, ~10 kt drop in wind shear. Lets see if trend holds..


GFS drops it considerably today and develops an anticyclone to run in tendem with 99. Your guess is as good as mine. I will make no further predictions until there is something tangible to track on sat.
Quoting 1127. NunoLava1998:


The Gaston C1 has a variety of features, such as an eye and a circulation, with a strong sense of convection. Learn more at this website!


Do you have enough tabs open?
It appears.

1135. MIKEYZ
Ive been on here since Jim Cantore had hair. Haven't posted in years, just watched. Im local in Wilmington Wrightsville Beach NC. Im amazed at all the sensationalism and wishcasting. Maybe its just a sign of the times. Heck, I cant even see weather on the weather channel anymore. The latest gurus calling 99L the next Andrew, Katrina, Camille...you don't want to go there. Been through plenty of storms that were only CAT3...its not good for anyone...end rant....
Quoting 1109. TampaShieldV1:



Sounds like a quote from a fortune cookie.

Lol, at this point I don't see any other way for it to happen than a TD coming from a fortune cookie
Quoting 1111. StormtrooperNathan:

people have been writing off 99L for the past 3 days when it has done exactly what forecasters predicted.....it is following the spaghetti models track from 5 days ago......99L wasn't suppose to intensify into anything until today.....


amazing how this blog is packed with people who are all about the NOW NOW NOW and if it isn't the END OF THE WORLD...RIGHT NOW!.....then the storm is a DUD....

ridiculous.....it's to the point where i don't even want to come in here, just check up on Levi's Trop. Tidbits because this blog has become a freaking insane asylum......

i will say it for the LAST TIME people.....99L was NOT EXPECTED to INTENSIFY UNTIL TODAY.....it has done EXACTLY what forecasters said it would......i swear, this place is filled with dart throwers who think they know everything :(


BTW, wild guessers and dart throwers.... wanna MAKE A BET that 99L grinds to a near halt as it starts to stack and organize today?......the high pressure ridging is moving into place across the Southern CONUS JUST LIKE was forecast.....Hermine isn't going ANYWHERE FAST ANYTIME SOON.....but she will stack, organize the CoC, and go from T.D. status into hurricane status rather quickly in the next 24-48 hours......

sorry, just trying to set the record straight.....people come here to see truth but the dart throwers and doomsday forecasters who dont know the truth from a hole in the ground destroy this blog with bullcrap blog entries.....


"we'll make 99L great again"
Quoting 1120. IDTH:

Not as much vorticity as it used to have, but still there and evident.





Didn't something similar happen with Franklin and Gert in 2005? Spawned from the same wave with one in the Bahamas and the other moving west and developing in the BOC?
Quoting 1124. Enormousl:

NHC cancels recon the morning where it looks the best? Head scratcher...

Definatley have a new center with rotation, convection in the center, nowhas slowed down and headed on a more NW path from what i can see


Could they fly into it later this evening or will it have to wait until tomorrow, considering it's apperance and buoy/satellite data and whatnot?
Can someone post a good satilite or visible link
Quoting 1112. weatherwatcher80:



The fact you want to invoke the name Katrina to explain your needless hype for 99L is almost as hilarious as your completely false and incorrect predictions of a double El-Nino this past winter. Just stop already, you are embarrassing yourself.
give it a break dude! katrina and andrew had same issues
Quoting 1128. GatorWX:

Primary circulation appears to be off the ne coast of Cuba.

around 22N 75W ?
Quoting 1137. canelane23N75W:



"we'll make 99L great again"


Apparently we've already built the wall to keep it out
Quoting 1122. GatorWX:

Morning all.

Shazaam!
;)




PYYYLLLE!!
1145. tj175
Quoting 1018. washingtonian115:

99L is all about nothing.I feel so stupid worrying both my husband and family about a sheared mess.Next time I will truly have to see it to believe it and will just keep my mouth shut to them.I feel so embarrassed now :(.


You're no stupid you did the right thing. Being a true Miamian born and raised we have always had these near misses and as a weather nut i've been told by others that i am the boy that cried wolf. I do my own preparations but i dont usually inform anyone anymore until a system is really close.
urgent message...tampa shields are currently DOWN for maintenance. we urge you to be prepared as anything can and will happen. peace out
This could get going soon Shear has dropped and will continue to lower



1148. IDTH
Quoting 1138. RockinghamRob:



Didn't something similar happen with Franklin and Gert in 2005? Spawned from the same wave with one in the Bahamas and the other moving west and developing in the BOC?

This is honestly something I didn't think about, but now we have two seperate areas of vorticity, one in particular that wasn't expected to be in the Caribbean. Right now it is over an area of light shear as well. My eyes are focused on 99L in the bahamas but this was an unexpected development.

Short term upper level environment and mid-level shear:




Quoting 1089. RockinghamRob:



I'm sure you're real fun to party with bro...


Why do so many people have such a hard time recognizing sarcasm? Why?
Quoting 1140. matrcrane:

Can someone post a good satilite or visible link

Here you go :
Link (GOES)
Link HQ 99L
Link HQ 99L
NOAA trop. floaters
Quoting 1140. matrcrane:

Can someone post a good satilite or visible link


Here you go,

College of Dupage Sat
I sure hope that they're not missing something... 20 % seems awfully low for warm open water and moderate shear... RI at our doorstep would really suck!!!


1154. GatorWX
Quoting 1142. hurricanehanna:


around 22N 75W ?


Da
Quoting 1150. bocawind:



Why do so many people have such a hard time recognizing sarcasm? Why?


because you forgot the flag.... roflmbo
Quoting 1122. GatorWX:

Morning all.

Shazaam!
;)



Nooooooooooooo! Nope! Uh uh! Not having that! 99L listen to me and please just GO AWAY! You are driving us crazy! I need to focus on other stuff like laundry, errands, etc. and walk away from the blob! Think I need an intervention as it appears I am addicteded to this blog and following/obsessively monitoring swirly things in the ocean! Thank heavens I have you all doing the same!


1157. Mikla
WV, 30 frames
Link
1158. IDTH

Quoting 1140. matrcrane:

Can someone post a good satilite or visible link


This is the one I am glued to since yesterday. But be careful, it's loading very slowly!
1160. Grothar
This is just a possible future track of a possible TC (Nothing positive)

1161. IDTH

Quoting 1122. GatorWX:

Morning all.

Shazaam!
;)




I don't like you. Lol
So is the LLC the naked one NW of the convection or buried up in that convective mass?
I will say sorry in advance for this is a long post with many graphics.
Figure One shows that the dreaded antagonist to this systems story, shear is finally falling away, with explosively warm sea surface temperatures we have something going for this system. There is some dry air to the north of the 'center' but it seems to be ebbing.
img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">

Figure Two shows something to take with a grain of salt but to certainly note! This is the HWRF 18Z run on Wednesday showing 99L where it is now, looking like nothing is going on with it -HUH- This did come to pass.
img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">

Figure Three is the current 6Z HWRF initialization. It actually shows it as being better than what the run a few days ago had it as. If we follow this run we see a Category Four at the end of five days nearing the Alabama Gulf Coast.
img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">

Finally the visible satellite. It looks like the lower shear and re moistening conditions are breathing the chances for new life into this storm. I still believe we will see at the very least Tropical Storm Hermine out of this. Likely not a Cat 4 but something moving between the western FL panhandle and where Rita hit. I will check back this evening.
img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">

Quoting 1159. Carnivorous:



This is the one I am glued to since yesterday. But be careful, it's loading very slowly!


I enjoy this one: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/
Quoting 976. scott39:

I have spent more time with 99L than I did with my second wife.....and I still like 99L better.

Mmmmust...not...respond...to...straight line!

I don't know, 99L was pretty annoying.

Phew! Did it!
This is what 99L will be going into

1168. GetReal
1169. elioe
Looks like the circulation center of 99L is now near the SE tip of Long Island. Definitely convection is situated closer to the circulation center than yesterday. I have to disagree with NHC about formation probabilities, I'd give 50%/80%.
Quoting 1150. bocawind:



Why do so many people have such a hard time recognizing sarcasm? Why?


Because you have such a DRY wit (sorry could not walk away from that pun).

Is 99L's core under the new burst? Not totally sure looking at the satellite
1171. Grothar
Almost blobable. Before the TWO I will probably issue a ONE and half blobcon.


1172. Mikla
Quoting 1140. matrcrane:

Can someone post a good satilite or visible link

Link
Looks Like things may be getting interesting a Circulation appears to be developing right over the crooked islands and convection is finally getting going to the SE of it, lets see what happens, as for that LLC Near cuba Levi was right it is going straight into Cuba and a new low will form exactly where I am seeing on now in the central bahamas
Quoting 1160. Grothar:

This is just a possible future track of a possible TC (Nothing positive)




Fujiwhara effect with 99L?
Lol Haoleboy! Just made my day. :)
Thunderstorms right over the center of 99L now. Off to the races for this system now. People in FL better watch this closely. Bottomline ignore the downcasters on here as this is almost hilarious watching these puppet fools on here operate.

Quoting 1015. HaoleboySurfEC:

Not an official forecast. lol This one started in my head on the way to work. Feel free to add your own verse. Not intended to offend anyone, and not directed at anyone in particular.

To be sung to "American Pie" by Don McLean

So bye bye 99L just died
Took my laptop to the Starbucks for the free Wi-Fi
Those good old boys on the blog just cried
Singin why is the Atlantic so dry?
Why is the Atlantic so dry?

Did you buy the Euros track?
And did you think the GFS was smoking crack?
Then some of us told you so, lol
And do you believe in Saharan Dust?
And this season will be a total bust
If the experts said it was so

Well I just put you on ignore again
Cause I just caught you wishcastin
They just put out the TWO
Man, Florida is really screwed

I was a middle-aged blogging buck
Who was just afraid of getting stuck
In contra flow behind a garbage truck
The day the blog cried
I started singin

So bye bye 99L just died
Took my laptop to the Starbucks for the free Wi-Fi
Those good old boys on the blog just cried
Singin why is the Atlantic so dry?
Why is the Atlantic so dry?

Edit.





This is awesome lol
Rather watch clouds and rain in the GOM coming to TX than 99L



99L ... although disorganized at the moment, it still has a fighting chance.

- It is still a rather large swirl, and this will help keep the system intact.
- the disturbance is moving WNW toward the GOM, where conditions are more favorable for development.
- thunderstorms are currently firing up closer to the center of the disturbance.


Although 99L's intensity has been difficult to forecast, it originally was not expected to become a named storm until this weekend. Just because development has been delayed, it still needs to be watched.


Residents along the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida should be prepared.

1180. A4Guy
Is there rotation at 74W/23N...or are my eyes deceiving me?
Quoting 1128. GatorWX:

Primary circulation appears to be off the ne coast of Cuba.


I don't know for certain. Looking at the northern end of Crooked Island and Acklins around 23N 74W, appears as if there is some spin there, with some showers just beginning to pop around that one, seems to be drawing moisture from the east and the south towards it. The one off the NE coast of Cuba may be in the process of dissipation.
1182. wpb
nice to have recon in area of t s blow up but flight canceled.
they are scheduled for later today
Another epiphany moment for me this morning; a chunk of my taxes goes to fund Noaa and NHC to do the forecasting for me.  Gonna watch and wait and let them do to the work we all pay them for............................................... ..

Quoting 1151. 999Ai2016:


Here you go :
Link (GOES)
Link HQ 99L
Link HQ 99L
NOAA trop. floaters


Good list... I also use this one, just max the resolution out 1400x1000, and select 100% quality and 30 frames animation, then click the image to select the location to focus on.
Quoting 1176. StormTrackerScott:

Thunderstorms right over the center of 99L now. Off to the races for this system now. People in FL better watch this closely. Bottomline ignore the downcasters on here as this is almost hilarious watching these puppet fools on here operate.


i agree, they never paid any attention to the fact the experts, nhc , said all along nothing would develop till the bahamas and its just got there.
It is hard to keep a good vort down.
1187. nolajet
Quoting 1171. Grothar:

Almost blobable. Before the TWO I will probably issue a ONE and half blobcon.





I knew it. The government has been secretly spraying the clouds with Pepto Bismol. ;)

It definitely has become blobtastic this morning. I hope that this afternoon sees a recon mission and that it doesn't get scrapped like this morning. It is a great opportunity for more data collection and model improvements if anything else.
is there a way to permanently block a blogger in here?....i would like to filter out the children, trolls, and idiots....i am sick of wasting time reading blog entries that are full of bullcrap and lies......
Quoting 1176. StormTrackerScott:

Thunderstorms right over the center of 99L now. Off to the races for this system now. People in FL better watch this closely. Bottomline ignore the downcasters on here as this is almost hilarious watching these puppet fools on here operate.




This thing always had the potential to get going once the conditions were ideal, which it never consistently had. As Patrap noted, CV seeds are not one to go away quickly. To write it off while it still has decent vorticity signature at most levels is premature.
This looks like it could still hit south Florida and all our weather stations and news stations down here are saying don't worry it will just be rainy and breezy. If this 99l does happen to blow up and the models shift a little further north alot will be caught of gourd. But we shall see 99l has been a very confusing and entertaining wave to follow and anything is possible.

Quoting 1176. StormTrackerScott:

Thunderstorms right over the center of 99L now. Off to the races for this system now. People in FL better watch this closely. Bottomline ignore the downcasters on here as this is almost hilarious watching these puppet fools on here operate.


1191. MahFL
So who said 99L was dead ?

Quoting 1188. StormtrooperNathan:

is there a way to permanently block a blogger in here?....i would like to filter out the children, trolls, and idiots....i am sick of wasting time reading blog entries that are full of bullcrap and lies......


Yes.. click ignore user on their post.
1193. WxLogic
Good Morning

99L is a surviver from the looks of it. Still a bit of shear but low enough to allow it to maintain some convection unlike yesterday.
1194. hamla
The future dont look good for the GOM I have seen this same picture in the past.so dont anyone be supprised when SHAPPENS,IMHO
1195. MahFL
Oh oh, what happened to the shear ?

Quick question for the gurus - If shear is lower north and west of 99Ls CoC, what's keeping the convection suppressed on the NW side of the storm? There's a little dry air there, but is that all that's stopping the convection?


Today is the first time in at least 24 hours that it looks like this has vertical alignment with the vort max. Looks like this is right on the boundary between moderate wind shear of 20knots and low of 5-10.
1198. FLSurf
What happened to the Model date on Wundermap? Anyone have a good link to an animation of the GFS or ECMF wind models?
He's calling people fools on here but said a el nino was possible again this summer.This is almost comical to watch.
1200. Grothar
This was the 006Z



This is the 12Z

I would not underestimate what low shear, very high ocean heat content and hot ssts can do to a developing system..... I think this will probably go through the Keys and Make landfall anywhere from the Panhandle to Alabama...... its looking a lot better this morning..... and as we saw with Joaquin(which many on here did not think would strengthen much because the convection was outside the COC for a bit) but once the COC and the CDO combined, RI happened. Any Eastern and Central Gulf residents really need to keep an eye on this....
1202. Patrap
Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged ignored.
Cancel recon, take sats out of rapid scan, lower develop chances to 20%, and 99 gets interesting. Goes to show you that even with highly skilled professionals, there is some level of guess work.
1204. joHS
hey gro....re: I will probably issue a ONE and half blobcon

not allowed, "they" say your blob is DEAD DEAD DEAD and we aren't emt's around here...

pouch peeples

SYNOPSIS 2016082600

P21L … 99L (NHC: 30% 2-day / 60% 5-day)
22N, 72W
700 hPa

Story changes …

ECMWF: Weaker and trending toward even more northward. Initial 2x10-9 s-2 OW decreases to almost zero at 36 hours, then increases, but only to a modest 5x10-9 s-2 at 96 hours. By then, 99l is tracking northward over Florida and becoming a meridionally (actually SSW-NNE) stretched trough. (Yesterday, ECMWF tracked a bit more westward than GFS; today, the opposite is true.)

GFS: OW values now tend to now be slightly higher than ECMWF. Erratic track the first two days as GFS continues to depict a strong OW max on the eastern side, especially at 24 hours. Tracks south of ECMWF, remaining over the Florida Strait, then tracks toward the NW while over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with OW increasing a little to almost 7x10-9 s-2 at 120 hours.

UKMET:


Quoting 1198. FLSurf:

What happened to the Model date on Wundermap? Anyone have a good link to an animation of the GFS or ECMF wind models?


Link
Seems pretty obvious the new LLC is just north of Crooked Island. (Island that makes the upside down L)

Link
Quoting 1196. ScottGridley:

Quick question for the gurus - If shear is lower north and west of 99Ls CoC, what's keeping the convection suppressed on the NW side of the storm? There's a little dry air there, but is that all that's stopping the convection?


I believe yes the sinking air doesn't help and Cuba might be interfering with consolidating the center, it's a big circulation.

You can see thunderstorms moving off the Everglades dying as well.

1208. Mikla
Quoting 1198. FLSurf:

What happened to the Model date on Wundermap? Anyone have a good link to an animation of the GFS or ECMF wind models?

This map uses the GFS. You can click the menu and advance the time to see the predicted winds.
its going to explode!
Northern end Crooked Island.
Center waiting for convection.
Looks better by the hour IMO.
Quoting 1143. win1gamegiantsplease:



Apparently we've already built the wall to keep it out


you're gonna need a bigger wall...lol...but not very funny as the "Lucayan Sea"
(the waters of the Bahamas) is as we all know very warm and we have a history of ramping these storms up and sending dem your way...unfortunately!!
Quoting 1197. charlottefl:



Today is the first time in at least 24 hours that it looks like this has vertical alignment with the vort max. Looks like this is right on the boundary between moderate wind shear of 20knots and low of 5-10.


That upper level low that was creating the wind shear for 99L has gone. I see a future anti-cyclone for 99L to possible aid in her development. Imho this is the best enviroment 99L has seen.
Quoting 1119. outofdablue:


Thanks for your response. Looking at the wind maps the spin is better there than with 99l.
YW. I don't know (what wind maps)? I don't cotton to that earthnull map.

What may prove significant is the 0700 CIMSS shear map showing an anticyclone and low shear SW of Jamaica near "the little vort." (add: Vort ref: Aug 26 0700cdt CIMSS 850 mb vorticity map)
1214. Sandcat
How confident are you old timers on here that whatever this becomes will hook into the big bend and stay clear of Louisiana? I shudder to think of what the outcome would be if it headed to central Louisiana?
1216. Grothar
BLOBCON 1 :P (Not official - just a blog term)

I need to get electric shutters. Being in WBP Fl and other coastal citties we never know what we are getting till it is at our doorsteps.
1218. 47n91w
Lightning increasing in the convection near Crooked Island. A definite sign of a strengthening system.

The models seem to be initializing the center further south than the apparent center that is trying to form.
Too early to say.
Quoting 1214. Sandcat:

How confident are you old timers on here that whatever this becomes will hook into the big bend and stay clear of Louisiana? I shudder to think of what the outcome would be if it headed to central Louisiana?
Quoting 1212. frank727:



That upper level low that was creating the wind shear for 99L has gone. I see a future anti-cyclone for 99L to possible aid in her development. Imho this is the best enviroment 99L has seen.


It still may be slightly tilted. But that won't last long. As soon as it enters low shear. I knew a new LLC was a possibility but I didn't expect it quite this fast. Especially as ragged as it looked last night...
HurricaneTracker App ‏@hurrtrackerapp
Okay everyone, we will need to pay attention to #99L a little closer. Shear maps reveal a sharp decrease in 3 hrs
Convection should fall off in about 3 hours. Off/On convection until it finds its sweet spot in the keys 36 hours from now.
It looks to me like that mid-level spin is approaching the LLC (that we *think* is under that convection). If that's true and those two kids get together, things could get interesting later today, no?
Here we go!
Moving NW?
Quoting 1203. StormJunkie:

Cancel recon, take sats out of rapid scan, lower develop chances to 20%, and 99 gets interesting. Goes to show you that even with highly skilled professionals, there is some level of guess work.


I hear you. But let's see that blob persist. And let's see some more blobbing on the NW side of the New LLC.
1228. IDTH
Quoting 1201. Cyclone2016:

I would not underestimate what low shear, very high ocean heat content and hot ssts can do to a developing system..... I think this will probably go through the Keys and Make landfall anywhere from the Panhandle to Alabama...... its looking a lot better this morning..... and as we saw with Joaquin(which many on here did not think would strengthen much because the convection was outside the COC for a bit) but once the COC and the CDO combined, RI happened. Any Eastern and Central Gulf residents really need to keep an eye on this....


It almost feels we've been saying this for 6 days (possibly an exaggeration) and it is just now starting to find a favorable environment. This somehow survived an onslaught of shear and was in a horrible spot to fire convection due to Cuba and Hispaniola and yet it's still alive.

I got to go and will probably be away from the blog for a while, I don't know what I'll come back to, all I know is that I never stopped watching 99L even when it seemed bleak and neither should anyone else have. I know that sounds so stupid but I stressed and stressed and stressed that until 99L had nothing left remaining, it wasn't over and no one should let their guard down. These next 36 hours will determine whether or not my inkling was correct or I was dead wrong (and I'd rather be dead wrong).

I got to go, remember to stay safe and remember that "it only takes one"
Quoting 1219. sonofagunn:

The models seem to be initializing the center further south than the apparent center that is trying to form.

That may explain why the recent EURO did not really show any development.
Quoting 1211. canelane23N75W:



you're gonna need a bigger wall...lol...but not very funny as the "Lucayan Sea"
(the waters of the Bahamas) is as we all know very warm and we have a history of ramping these storms up and sending dem your way...unfortunately!!


Lol true. Though I feel safe on the southeast coast (not in FL), it's the gulf coast I'd be worried about.
New LLC is Forming right on the southern tip of Long Island Near 23.0 N & 74.5 W
LLC forming right between Crooked and Long Island.
Quoting 1203. StormJunkie:

Cancel recon, take sats out of rapid scan, lower develop chances to 20%, and 99 gets interesting. Goes to show you that even with highly skilled professionals, there is some level of guess work.
HI, SJ! Good to you see you around. Guess work... Plus, like many of us, the pros are reactionaries. The NHC percentages have to blend the aircraft and other obs and the models.

As you know, clouds do as they will, not as we will.
;)
Quoting 1206. VAbeachhurricanes:

Seems pretty obvious the new LLC is just north of Crooked Island. (Island that makes the upside down L)

Link


I think that upper level cyclone that had become displaced to the SW of 99L over much of it's track from the Northern Antilles west to Haiti had enhanced outflow to it's NE from the trough that was located there. Soon as that ULAC moved off to the SW further away from 99L, we see shear drop significantly vs. what it was yesterday.

Also noticing that the NW side of the system is still dealing with dry air as all the convection is on it's SE flank, but it looks like the last few frames is showing signs of convection trying to develop right on top of that swirl.

Interesting day ahead.
1235. hydrus
Quoting 1185. Tampa969mlb:

i agree, they never paid any attention to the fact the experts, nhc , said all along nothing would develop till the bahamas and its just got there.
Yep...I posted here yesterday that 99L would be forecast with traditional methods used decades ago rather than computer models.
Quoting 1213. Barefootontherocks:

YW. I don't know (what wind maps)? I don't cotton to that earthnull map.

What may prove significant is the 0700 CIMSS shear map showing an anticyclone and low shear SW of Jamaica near "the little vort."



I have been using My Radar it is a free app. I downloaded it when we had the no name rainmaker. Don't know how accurate it is but easy to use
Are there any analogs for 99L?
I leave to go run Friday errands and the blog blows up....I sure do hope that the models have battery backup for that revolving door...I need more coffee and exedrine.....ugh...
1241. barbamz
Quoting 1216. Grothar:

BLOBCON 1 :P (Not official - just a blog term)



I spot a spot of green ...
1242. wpb
Quoting 1210. Abacosurf:

Northern end Crooked Island.
Center waiting for convection.
Looks better by the hour IMO.
looks like swirl is moving away from tstorms still in shear
Quoting 1201. Cyclone2016:

I would not underestimate what low shear, very high ocean heat content and hot ssts can do to a developing system..... I think this will probably go through the Keys and Make landfall anywhere from the Panhandle to Alabama...... its looking a lot better this morning..... and as we saw with Joaquin(which many on here did not think would strengthen much because the convection was outside the COC for a bit) but once the COC and the CDO combined, RI happened. Any Eastern and Central Gulf residents really need to keep an eye on this....



No, you keep an eye on it.
I can tell this circulation is healthy. I've been watching dry air just to the west of the circulation for two days now. And while it's been decreasing in areal coverage it hasn't been happening quickly. This newly formed circulation is rapidly mixing out what little bit of dry are is left around it.

Link
Really should have bought stock in straws before 99L came along, considering how many folks on here are reaching for them concerning this system
Step 1..tstorms wrap around new llc, step 2 bomb out in super hot waters with no shear, step 3 figure out where it is going.., I see a east coast storm imo
"I'm not dead yet" - 99L
99L: The Reports of My Death Were Greatly Exaggerated
Any thoughts on the High Pressure sitting over the Southeast, the northerly shift of that system and the subsequent effect that may have on this 'tropical distrubance' moving either westerly or take a turn to the NE when it hits the eastern Gulf? Please excuse my lack of terminology as I am a novice at this stuff but want to learn...thanks for any input
Nice counter-clockwise spin to the current convective burst; still a very tilted circulation:

Quoting 1230. win1gamegiantsplease:



Lol true. Though I feel safe on the southeast coast (not in FL), it's the gulf coast I'd be worried about.

Keeping a close eye on it in Tampa. Entire gulf Coast should be watching 99L.
Quoting 1214. Sandcat:

How confident are you old timers on here that whatever this becomes will hook into the big bend and stay clear of Louisiana? I shudder to think of what the outcome would be if it headed to central Louisiana?


Hate to say it, but not sure LA is out of the woods on this one.
I do get one of them "told ya so's" on this storm, having indicated a few days ago that it might just as easily track up the west side of FL as the East side; however, recent models show it may go even further west, which might not be good for LA or TX. Just been thinking & talking with some people about it wouldn't take much on top of all the recent rains to provoke massive flooding. If LA has had 500-yr or 1,000-yr flooding, imagine what could happen if another 15" of rain or more piled onto them.

- Don't worry, even that much rain wouldn't affect the golf courses up in the NE USA much.
1253. Grothar
8/26 12Z
Disturbance Wind: 25 kts
Pressure: 1009 mb
Coordinates: 21.8N 74.7W


8/26 6Z
Disturbance Wind: 25 kts
Pressure: 1009 mb
Coordinates: 21.4N 74.7W
1254. colty77
I'll just throw this in the mix... most of Cuba is relatively flat except for the extreme southeastern part, where the hills and mountains are much lower than was the case in Hispaniola. Most of the hills are 2000 to 3000 ft, with one near the southern coast rising to over 6000 ft. Haiti and DR have ridges and peaks widespread around 10,000 ft. Cuba would therefore be less disruptive to systems near it.
This circulation is rapidly mixing out the dry air to the west of it that's been sitting there for days...

Link

(sorry for the double post guys, blog is really lagging right now)
Quoting 1240. tiggeriffic:

I leave to go run Friday errands and the blog blows up....I sure do hope that the models have battery backup for that revolving door...I need more coffee and exedrine.....ugh...


Agreed -- just rearranged for the second time plans for the weekend, looks like there might be yet another set of rearranging.
That little jag to the north could be nothing but a zig or a zag, but maybe we can hope it decides to turn more northward & not enter the GOM, maybe only sideswipe FL, eh?
1258. CBJeff
Circulation about 24N, 75W?

Just as Cuba starts freeing up flow from the west, the dry air chokes it off from the north. 99's trying to pull something around from the east; it's not going down without a fight...
Quoting 1238. jordan1tylerr:

Ye



Am I the only one that is still seeing a naked swirl being sheared away?
For the new or casual blog observer. A GREAT tropical weather resource many of us here use in conjunction with WU is tropicaltidbits.com. Levi does short video blogs that are incredibly informative and educational. (this is not a paid endorsement!)
Quoting 1237. JNFlori30A:

Are there any analogs for 99L?


Closest analogs determined by GFS steering patterns:



Please note: climatology is only 1 piece of the pizzle. Every storm is different.
Quoting 1243. yesterway:



No, you keep an eye on it.


- WHY?
It's only an itsy bitsy green-eyed critter, atm. (Right, Grothar?)
It's just sitting there looking so cute.
What's a little bit of warm water, high SSTs and such? (Ever seen Gremlins movie?)
Quoting 1216. Grothar:

BLOBCON 1 :P (Not official - just a blog term)




As is SENIOR BLOBOLIGIST! Good Morning Mr Senior Bloboligist!
Quoting 1219. sonofagunn:

The models seem to be initializing the center further south than the apparent center that is trying to form.


It all depends on what data is input into the computers. Garbage in Garbage out. The Euro could have had the wrong data on last runs.
Quoting 1238. jordan1tylerr:

Ye



Yep. It appears as if the shower activity is slowly encroaching on that spin... And seems as if the enviroment as a whole is beginning to coalesce around that one gyre 23.1N 74.6W. And extrapolation would take it to extreme South Florida or Keys
Quoting 1254. colty77:

I'll just throw this in the mix... most of Cuba is relatively flat except for the extreme southeastern part, where the hills and mountains are much lower than was the case in Hispaniola. Most of the hills are 2000 to 3000 ft, with one near the southern coast rising to over 6000 ft. Haiti and DR has ridges and peaks widespread around 10,000 ft. Cuba would therefore be less disruptive to systems near it.



to a degree it is true...but it also depends on the height of the storm....
1267. CBJeff
The Bahamas may be warm and increasingly shear-free, but this is a BYO party moisture-wise. 99L is trying wrap something around from the east, but it's a big ask...
Quoting 1253. Grothar:

8/26 12Z
Disturbance Wind: 25 kts
Pressure: 1009 mb
Coordinates: 21.8N 74.7W


8/26 6Z
Disturbance Wind: 25 kts
Pressure: 1009 mb
Coordinates: 21.4N 74.7W


And our current LLC looks to be at about 23N 74.5W (roughly)
Taking a quick break from work. The little vort everyone is watching near 23N 74.5W is part of several. There is another fairly strong one around 21N 75W which I believe is the one we were tracking yesterday. The system appears to have evolved into a gyre with a mean center around 22N 74W. This is right on the edge of the convective blow up. Shear has fallen so now is the time to watch and see if the gyre can consolidate.
Good Morning World from Americas Left Coast! How is our little fren doing this am?
How is it a threat to FL if the National Hurricane Center gave it 20% chance in the next 48 hours. The Weather Underground and the Weather channel whip up hysteria every time, just for ratings.
looking at the visible satellite, the LLC looks like its just to the NW of the convection. Will say however this thing is looking much better than in days prior.
I would have to say Elena. The wave that spawned Elena moved rapidly through much of the Atlantic for days, and then through the Greater Antilles with little development until it got into a location similar to 99L. When she left NW Cuba and entered the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, she really took off and intensified
Quoting 1237. JNFlori30A:

Are there any analogs for 99L?
Its alive!
Quoting 1247. fsulevine:

"I'm not dead yet" - 99L


Levi Cowan @TropicalTidbits
The HWRF previously forecast 99L to be a Cat 3 at Leeward Islands and a Cat 4 in the Bahamas. Unreliable thus far. https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/76918340160 1400833 …

13m
Today will be interesting. I say TD/storm by this evening. IMO.
Quoting 1250. weathermanwannabe:

Nice counter-clockwise spin to the current convective burst:




Aye, lad,..she's a firin' up right good now, ya know. (w/Faux Celtic accent with a hint of N Minn. & CAN to boot)
Quoting 1256. zoomiami:



Agreed -- just rearranged for the second time plans for the weekend, looks like there might be yet another set of rearranging.


hey ya zoo.....if that swirly thingy (yes, I am entering that term in the catalog for tropical disturbances) becomes the new LLC, the entire track is OTW (out the window)....hope people have them printed out cause they will be toilet paper.... I think what is killing everyone is that we are expecting changes like a freight train and got a snail (and not turbo either!)
Quoting 1153. ChillinInTheKeys:

I sure hope that they're not missing something... 20 % seems awfully low for warm open water and moderate shear... RI at our doorstep would really suck!!!




labor day cane went from nothing to a monster in 36-48 hours. since intensity can't really be forecast with skill, this kind of storm very much is a concern.
Pick yer poison...
Nothing in the MDR between Africa and the Lesser Antilles.

Dry dry dry.

Quoting 1236. outofdablue:



I have been using My Radar it is a free app. I downloaded it when we had the no name rainmaker. Don't know how accurate it is but easy to use
TY! My radar app only gets Puerto Rico coverage. lol Gotta run now. Will have to watch "the little vort" as well as its mama.
1286. hulakai
Quoting 1255. charlottefl:

This circulation is rapidly mixing out the dry air to the west of it that's been sitting there for days...

Link
looks like something trying to spin up north of Inagua. Levi suggested this might happen @ tropical tidbits.com
I see green, I think the time has come for old 99L to start to get its act together!

Quoting 1225. bigwes6844:

Here we go!



Almost out of the wind shear...
A comeback for 99L?
What can we expect in central east coast florida? should be stock up or not?
Quoting 1228. IDTH:


It almost feels we've been saying this for 6 days (possibly an exaggeration) and it is just now starting to find a favorable environment. This somehow survived an onslaught of shear and was in a horrible spot to fire convection due to Cuba and Hispaniola and yet it's still alive.

I got to go and will probably be away from the blog for a while, I don't know what I'll come back to, all I know is that I never stopped watching 99L even when it seemed bleak and neither should anyone else have. I know that sounds so stupid but I stressed and stressed and stressed that until 99L had nothing left remaining, it wasn't over and no one should let their guard down. These next 36 hours will determine whether or not my inkling was correct or I was dead wrong (and I'd rather be dead wrong).

I got to go, remember to stay safe and remember that "it only takes one"

Exactly my thoughts. It really does only take one.

Despite living in the "Queen City of the West" (Cincinnati), I am keeping an eye on this storm for many reasons. My extended family owns a condominium right on the beach at Sand Key, FL (South of Clearwater Beach) and we go there often.... my Great Grandma (God bless her soul) was very lucky that despite owning that condo since 1982, only one storm has ever really impacted the area (Elena, 85') and even 2004 did not do really anything to our area, we have been blessed in the Tampa area for a long time of not getting a direct hit by a Major Hurricane, something I fear will end soon enough.

I still fear another Hurricane Ike in my area even after 8 years. Ohio's worst Hurricane was Ike, the winds were ferocious and we did not have power for 5 days. I believe at one point, Duke Energy, had 950,000 customers(2.1 million people) without power, more than 90% of their customers in the Cincinnati area.
Quoting 1254. colty77:

I'll just throw this in the mix... most of Cuba is relatively flat except for the extreme southeastern part, where the hills and mountains are much lower than was the case in Hispaniola. Most of the hills are 2000 to 3000 ft, with one near the southern coast rising to over 6000 ft. Haiti and DR has ridges and peaks widespread around 10,000 ft. Cuba would therefore be less disruptive to systems near it.



(Sorry Colty, but I had to un-hide your post to read it.
Thing is, I've never blocked anyone's comments, since I'm man enough to take it, whatever a person says.
I don't know why yours was hidden that I had to unhide it to read it: my apologies regarding this kind of unfriendliness.)
?????????
1295. wpb
canceled recon flight and ended goes rapid scan.yyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy
anyone else having issues with the blog, mines not loading?
Quoting 1207. win1gamegiantsplease:



I believe yes the sinking air doesn't help and Cuba might be interfering with consolidating the center, it's a big circulation.

You can see thunderstorms moving off the Everglades dying as well.




Hmm, maybe a giant angel is standing before it pressing a hand against its NW edge for some reason.
(Quite a vivid imagination, eh?)
1298. Ed22
The convection is increasing so its pulling back the Low Level Circulation back under the increasing convection.
Quoting 1234. ILwthrfan:



I think that upper level cyclone that had become displaced to the SW of 99L over much of it's track from the Northern Antilles west to Haiti had enhanced outflow to it's NE from the trough that was located there. Soon as that ULAC moved off to the SW further away from 99L, we see shear drop significantly vs. what it was yesterday.

Also noticing that the NW side of the system is still dealing with dry air as all the convection is on it's SE flank, but it looks like the last few frames is showing signs of convection trying to develop right on top of that swirl.

Interesting day ahead.
99L's thunderstorms are still being sheered to the west of its axis. Although we are seeing an increase in thunderstorm activity near where we believe the center is, the NHC has lowered its expecations for development.
1302. GetReal
1303. RayT
You know, I think what happened with 99L is that it came across Hispanola and was cut in half. half the storm stayed North, and is trying to form in the bahamas and half went south, flew over Jamaica. Has this sort of thing ever happened where the storm gets split and both halves develop?

Just curious. although looking at Jamaica, I dont think that blob will have time to form into anything before hitting land. I think its moving too quickly to have a chance at that.
Quoting 1188. StormtrooperNathan:

is there a way to permanently block a blogger in here?....i would like to filter out the children, trolls, and idiots....i am sick of wasting time reading blog entries that are full of bullcrap and lies......


Hey man, don't hate people just because they believe in manmade global warming.
Systems/Invests like 99L are the ones I worry about. The persistent systems that won't die can be real trouble...
Quoting 1252. WalkingInTheSun:



Hate to say it, but not sure LA is out of the woods on this one.
I do get one of them "told ya so's" on this storm, having indicated a few days ago that it might just as easily track up the west side of FL as the East side; however, recent models show it may go even further west, which might not be good for LA or TX. Just been thinking & talking with some people about it wouldn't take much on top of all the recent rains to provoke massive flooding. If LA has had 500-yr or 1,000-yr flooding, imagine what could happen if another 15" of rain or more piled onto them.

And as a landscape architect...when the ground is saturated...trees will blow over MUCH more easily.
Quoting 1256. zoomiami:



Agreed -- just rearranged for the second time plans for the weekend, looks like there might be yet another set of rearranging.


Don't like where NHC guided Recon to look on Sunday

FLIGHT TWO -TEAL 72
A. 28/0530Z, 1130Z
B. AFXXX 0608A CYCLONE
C. 28/0330Z
D. 24.5N 80.0W
E. 28/0500Z TO 28/1130Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT


Link
1309. tj175
99L looking better by the hour. Still has some issues firing convection around the LLC but it looks like its well on its way.
Quoting 1178. RitaEvac:

Rather watch clouds and rain in the GOM coming to TX than 99L






was noticing there does seem to be flood potential in the approaching rain there, but still think 99L bears watching as well, especially if TX/LA might get both.
1311. Ed22
Quoting 1250. weathermanwannabe:

Nice counter-clockwise spin to the current convective burst:


Maybe Low Level Circulation could be developing their.
1312. Patrap
Quoting 1252. WalkingInTheSun:



Hate to say it, but not sure LA is out of the woods on this one.
I do get one of them "told ya so's" on this storm, having indicated a few days ago that it might just as easily track up the west side of FL as the East side; however, recent models show it may go even further west, which might not be good for LA or TX. Just been thinking & talking with some people about it wouldn't take much on top of all the recent rains to provoke massive flooding. If LA has had 500-yr or 1,000-yr flooding, imagine what could happen if another 15" of rain or more piled onto them.


Saw a 31.36 rain event 12 days ago.

Not one iota of it will go toward the 2016 ACE.

Imagine DAT?

Louisiana flooding range shown in new interactive map.





Good morning everyone. I see its another day of waiting. And did it split in two? !? It's going to be a long day!
Quoting 1255. charlottefl:

This circulation is rapidly mixing out the dry air to the west of it that's been sitting there for days...

Link


(sorry for the double post guys was having browser issues I think...)
Quoting 1174. ChillinInTheKeys:



Fujiwhara effect with 99L?


Say, is that related to the spot of showers that keep lagging back from the other rains bearing down on the TX/LA area currently? I notice as the others continue on, one part keeps hanging back near FL.
No serious windstorm may ever hit the western hemisphere again. Flooding a definite possibility; insurers pretty much immune from flooding.
1317. Grothar
Quoting 1262. WalkingInTheSun:



- WHY?
It's only an itsy bitsy green-eyed critter, atm. (Right, Grothar?)
It's just sitting there looking so cute.
What's a little bit of warm water, high SSTs and such? (Ever seen Gremlins movie?)


Both of them.

And don't ever feed me after midnight.
Appears to have also slowed down. Quite the turn of events.

Quoting 1265. ecflweatherfan:



Yep. It appears as if the shower activity is slowly encroaching on that spin... And seems as if the enviroment as a whole is beginning to coalesce around that one gyre 23.1N 74.6W. And extrapolation would take it to extreme South Florida or Keys
1319. Michfan
Quoting 1267. CBJeff:

The Bahamas may be warm and increasingly shear-free, but this is a BYO party moisture-wise. 99L is trying wrap something around from the east, but it's a big ask...


All it needs to do is move further WNW to tap into that old frontal boundary over Florida. Once it does that the dry air won't be an issue.
Quoting 1233. Barefootontherocks:

As you know, clouds do as they will, not as we will.
;)


Not according to Elvis. He believed he could control clouds with the will of his mind.
It sure does look that way. Maybe its trying to stack?
Quoting 1259. ParanoidAndroid:



Am I the only one that is still seeing a naked swirl being sheared away?
Quoting 1265. ecflweatherfan:



Yep. It appears as if the shower activity is slowly encroaching on that spin... And seems as if the enviroment as a whole is beginning to coalesce around that one gyre 23.1N 74.6W. And extrapolation would take it to extreme South Florida or Keys


Shear has dropped off dramatically in the last few satellite frames, especially to the SW and the NE. Outflow is beginning to improve as a result, and I'm sure that's no doubt why we are seeing the blow up in convection that we are. Air is no longer being driven over the mountain ranges in Cuba from the south, and the environment around the circulation is really moistening up.
1323. GetReal


Based upon this graphic a jump towards the NW by 99L would be expected, with a turn back towards the west, or WNW over the coming next few hours.
The center looks to be at 74.5, 23 with the convection being sheered off to the west.
1325. wpb
Quoting 1271. JoeBarnickel:

How is it a threat to FL if the National Hurricane Center gave it 20% chance in the next 48 hours. The Weather Underground and the Weather channel whip up hysteria every time, just for ratings.local tv too.sameless
99 has been shooting naked swirls out for a couple days...another to the NW...
Either there's a blog hole or???
1328. Ed22
Quoting 1268. charlottefl:



And our current LLC looks to be at about 23N 74.5W (roughly)
a new one is developing with increasing rotation and convection to the south of 23.0 north.
1329. Patrap
She's gonna make a beeline run for the Straits, chief.





Quoting 1271. JoeBarnickel:

How is it a threat to FL if the National Hurricane Center gave it 20% chance in the next 48 hours. The Weather Underground and the Weather channel whip up hysteria every time, just for ratings.


Just the same as Houston forecasters giving a 20% chance of rain...then changing it to 60% a few hours later after rain has already started coming in heavy in some areas. This is their stance on 99L...for now. They retain the right to change their minds if it gets "blobby" enough. Otherwise, the politics sets in and no need to trouble people or get wheels in motion that cost tax dollars, get people in trouble, etc. in areas that would need to start prepping. Sorry, but almost everything is touched by the money these days.
Looks like 99L is fighting for a name.  
Has has anyone else been watching the swirl (area of vorticity, is that the correct term?) that broke off from 99L as it went over PR and the DR and is now south west of Jamaica? It has been fascinating watching it, and it seems to be getting stronger and better organized with time, although it doesn't look particularly threatening right now. I suppose none of the models are developing it, unless this is the system the NHC anticipates developing in the GOM off the coast of Texas. 

Quoting 1282. JNFlori30A:

Pick yer poison...


Florida anyday over Louisana
Quoting 1282. JNFlori30A:
Pick yer poison...


We're in the middle now so hopefully they just keep shifting West and it goes right on past us, don't need a hurricane right before Labor Day weekend!
Quoting 1291. mamothmiss:

What can we expect in central east coast florida? should be stock up or not?


Man, you live in Florida & it's hurricane season.
Are you somehow NOT stocked up already???


I will reiterate again... These tracks are only of use "if" the center is initialized correctly.
Quoting 1287. 69Viking:

I see green, I think the time has come for old 99L to start to get its act together!




It's a GREEN DOT man...GREEN DOT! Markot would be losing his mind over this.
99L is like "I eat dry air for breakfast"
Still really unimpressive, but I guess compared to what it looked like yesterday it looks fantastic haha....

Convection over a partly exposed elongated circulation, it's back to where it was 4 days ago
Quoting 1125. IDTH:


He's not wrong about the area 99L is moving in to. I'd rather not get into the whole enso PDO discussion I had with him a while back, but he isn't wrong about at least expressing some concern because of the history that area has of intensifying TC's quite quickly.


Katrina isn't anything like an analogue for this system. Neither is Andrew for that matter (both were far further north).

A pattern is a pattern is a pattern.

Concern is great - especially if this thing gets into the gulf. Even if it's not a named TC, we just saw what a tropical low can do on the gulf coast in Louisiana.

What we don't need is needless (and baseless) hype. Either the storm develops or it doesn't. Trying to be the first to call something out is counterproductive since no one here works for NHC or has any say in the process of actually predicting or classifying TCs....
Quoting 1288. SCwannabee:


Almost out of the wind shear...


Monster storms blowing up East of the center and not being blown away as far as I can tell. Almost looks like storms could start wrapping around the center this afternoon if this trend continues. Storms are closer to the center than they have been in some time.
Quoting 1303. RayT:

You know, I think what happened with 99L is that it came across Hispanola and was cut in half. half the storm stayed North, and is trying to form in the bahamas and half went south, flew over Jamaica. Has this sort of thing ever happened where the storm gets split and both halves develop?

Just curious. although looking at Jamaica, I dont think that blob will have time to form into anything before hitting land. I think its moving too quickly to have a chance at that.

No, this has never happened since the satellite era began.
This will be an interesting GFS run
Quoting 1296. masiello3:

anyone else having issues with the blog, mines not loading?

Yes, I had to clear my cache and reload the blog to see new messages. Thought it was me.
Any chance of this thing picking up speed if we get a center of convection or is there just nothing driving this thing in a westerly direction?
Quoting 1282. JNFlori30A:

Pick yer poison...



They seem to keep updating that thing for farther West.
Maybe Texas is going to get some action on this one - the poor folks in LA have had about all they can take, and doesn't it seem like hurricanes tend to seem to be draw into drier climates? (a Texas superstition)
System is clearly being sheared but better than yesterday. LLC is trying to bring convection with it but who knows if there are competing areas. It will take another 3 hours to get a good picture of what's happening from visible, IR and water vapor.
99L starting to fire up some nice convection. People living in the Florida Keys need to keep abreast of 99Ls progress over the next 48 hours.
Quoting 1329. Patrap:

She's gonna make a beeline run for the Straits, chief.







Pat all these doubters will realize to not speak too early. Thats why you wait and see before you make any judgement on a potential threat.
1350. MahFL
Quoting 1271. JoeBarnickel:

How is it a threat to FL if the National Hurricane Center gave it 20% chance in the next 48 hours. The Weather Underground and the Weather channel whip up hysteria every time, just for ratings.


Because it has a 60 % in 5 days. Then it will be in the Gulf of Mexico, heading NNE to the other part of Florida....
Quoting 1326. SoFLRoofguy:

99 has been shooting naked swirls out for a couple days...another to the NW...


"naked swirls" huh? - and they dance, too?
Quoting 1232. Heresince2005:

LLC forming right between Crooked and Long Island.


That is the same LLC that was supposed to die over Cuba, it stopped going west and went north overnight... It's the same LLC we have been seeing the past few days.
Still waiting for the updated CIMSS charts (for 11:00 am) which should post up in about an hour to give us a better look and what has happened with shear and vort issues over the past 3 hours (the the 8:00 am charts currently up).

In the meantime, no buoys even close to the current action going on............................................... :(
Quoting 1271. JoeBarnickel:

How is it a threat to FL if the National Hurricane Center gave it 20% chance in the next 48 hours. The Weather Underground and the Weather channel whip up hysteria every time, just for ratings.


Because 20% isn't 0 percent.
This might be one of those "2 out of every 10" storms.
Quoting 1282. JNFlori30A:

Pick yer poison...



All this could be for nought, especially if the circulation to the north of the initialization point, currently at 23N, becomes the heartbeat of 99L.
1356. MahFL
Quoting 1334. WalkingInTheSun:



Man, you live in Florida & it's hurricane season.
Are you somehow NOT stocked up already???


It's been 10 years since a hurricane hit Florida. Stocking up would have been a waste of $$$.
I think the naked swirl just jumped under the convection. If you look at the SE side of it, the clouds are no longer moving in the correct direction. They are now moving the same direction as the clouds on the NW side of the naked center. Any takers?
99L is exploding right now. Too bad the recon was cancelled. Likely a TS quickly in the making right now.
Quoting 1271. JoeBarnickel:

How is it a threat to FL if the National Hurricane Center gave it 20% chance in the next 48 hours. The Weather Underground and the Weather channel whip up hysteria every time, just for ratings.

60% it will develop in the next five days is a threat and many models still develop it despite its poor organization when it's in the GOM maybe a little sooner.
Quoting 1332. Icybubba:


Florida anyday over Louisana


I actually favor the northerly track through the straits, to begin with, but not sure it'll stick to the rest of the routes anticipated for those models. - maybe a combination of them.
Quoting 1237. JNFlori30A:

Are there any analogs for 99L?


Hurricane Erin [1995]
or Rita
1362. MahFL
Quoting 1303. RayT:

You know, I think what happened with 99L is that it came across Hispanola and was cut in half. half the storm stayed North, and is trying to form in the bahamas and half went south, flew over Jamaica. Has this sort of thing ever happened where the storm gets split and both halves develop?

Just curious. although looking at Jamaica, I dont think that blob will have time to form into anything before hitting land. I think its moving too quickly to have a chance at that.


99L is not a storm, it's a tropical wave, they can be very large and can traverse the whole Caribbean without developing, some even end up in the Pacific Ocean.
Quoting 1347. Tornadocane:

System is clearly being sheared but better than yesterday. LLC is trying to bring convection with it but who knows if there are competing areas. It will take another 3 hours to get a good picture of what's happening from visible, IR and water vapor.


15-20 knots is not gonna tear it apart.
12z seems to be a lot more of a consensus for the Florida Panhandle area.
Quoting 1350. MahFL:



Because it has a 60 % in 5 days. Then it will be in the Gulf of Mexico, heading NNE to the other part of Florida....
No guarantee of no RI.
Quoting 1346. WalkingInTheSun:



They seem to keep updating that thing for farther West.
Maybe Texas is going to get some action on this one - the poor folks in LA have had about all they can take, and doesn't it seem like hurricanes tend to seem to be draw into drier climates? (a Texas superstition)


99L is well north of those tracks. 18Z runs will be very interesting in both intensity and track. East Coast of FL is not out of the woods. Seems to be pulling WNW or even NW.
1367. MahFL
Quoting 1347. Tornadocane:

It will take another 3 hours to get a good picture of what's happening from visible, IR and water vapor.


Make that 2 days...
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 1348. HurriHistory:

99L starting to fire up some nice convection. People living in the Florida Keys need to keep abreast of 99Ls progress over the next 48 hours.


The question is how soon will things consolidate. If this starts to wrap up in 18 hours into a depression/storm, it will jog the path northward and there will be enough fuel and low enough shear in place for good strengthening. The models are useless until a clear center is delineated.
Folks 99L is sitting in the danger zone and considering its August I would be worried sitting in FL right now watching the this thing beginning to take off right before our very own eyes. System is organizing every hour now that the shear has lessened literally over 15knts in 2 hours. Crazy!!
Quoting 1357. StormJunkie:

I think the naked swirl just jumped under the convection. If you look at the SE side of it, the clouds are no longer moving in the correct direction. They are now moving the same direction as the clouds on the NW side of the naked center. Any takers?


Like you said earlier, the main focus LLC is south of that vort. Looking at the WV loop, ULL forming east of the Bahamas will keep it in check.
1372. aquak9
Michael A. He..... you are just so rude. So rude. What's wrong with you today- hungover AGAIN?

And yeah, thanks for not spending you WIFE'S hard-earned money.

So rude.
99L is really doing what the models said it would do and that is blow up by Friday. NHC #EGGONFACE
Quoting 1339. weatherwatcher80:



Katrina isn't anything like an analogue for this system. Neither is Andrew for that matter (both were far further north).

A pattern is a pattern is a pattern.

Concern is great - especially if this thing gets into the gulf. Even if it's not a named TC, we just saw what a tropical low can do on the gulf coast in Louisiana.

What we don't need is needless (and baseless) hype. Either the storm develops or it doesn't. Trying to be the first to call something out is counterproductive since no one here works for NHC or has any say in the process of actually predicting or classifying TCs....


Absolutely right. - ....RUN FER YER LIVESSS, CAT 10 "MONSTER EYE" IS COMIN'!!! Aigheeeeee!!!! (-JK)
1375. MahFL
Quoting 1345. kcajax79:

Any chance of this thing picking up speed if we get a center of convection or is there just nothing driving this thing in a westerly direction?


The trade winds drive the speed of the system forward. They are called trade winds because in the old days during summer/fall the winds blow from Africa to the USA, allowing sailing ships to "trade" with the USA. Of course these days ships have engines.
Earth School showing that the surface circulation is stacking surface thru 700
1377. Grothar
From Clark Evans

Quoting 1364. Sfloridacat5:

12z seems to be a lot more of a consensus for the Florida Panhandle area.



Consensus can be good or bad.
Good if based on fact, and bad if based on politics or peer pressure that may lead to harm.
Quoting 1293. WalkingInTheSun:



(Sorry Colty, but I had to un-hide your post to read it.
Thing is, I've never blocked anyone's comments, since I'm man enough to take it, whatever a person says.
I don't know why yours was hidden that I had to unhide it to read it: my apologies regarding this kind of unfriendliness.)
Comment filter - located at the top of the comments - is on a default setting. Unless you reset your comment filter to "show all," you will miss a lot of good comments (probably this one and many from oldtimers due to use of the comment minus button during blog wars and gang flagging - back when the minus button existed).

Once you change the filter level, you must leave JeffMasters blog page and come back. If you don't, the change will not take effect and your filter will default to where it is now set.
Quoting 1335. yankees440:



I will reiterate again... These tracks are only of use "if" the center is initialized correctly.
It's not forming their, more to the East and North.
Quoting 1346. WalkingInTheSun:



They seem to keep updating that thing for farther West.
Maybe Texas is going to get some action on this one - the poor folks in LA have had about all they can take, and doesn't it seem like hurricanes tend to seem to be draw into drier climates? (a Texas superstition)


But take it with a grain of salt.....Where it starts is NOT the location of the new POSSIBLE circulation, which is further north and we will still have to wait and see if it consolidates there.
How fast is this blob moving?
Personally, I think there are still multiple areas of spin, with one around 21N 72W that is slowly starting to spin up to the left of the heaviest convection and another area of spin under the convection. That LLC shooting out ahead of it I think will likely die, just like the one that ran into Cuba.
Quoting 1367. MahFL:



Make that 2 days...


In 2 days models have it traversing the straights. I'm not looking that far ahead because this is a nowcast situation. Right now the storm is improving but struggling. It is moving away from the high shear, moistening some of its surroundings, and consolidating its energy. Everything that happens within the next 3-12 hours will have significant impacts in the short and long term.
1385. ProPoly
Quoting 1373. StormTrackerScott:

99L is really doing what the models said it would do and that is blow up by Friday. NHC #EGGONFACE


Exactly. It was always supposed to start up today. Too many people trying to see something yesterday that none of the guidance said would be there.
Quoting 1366. StormTrackerScott:



99L is well north of those tracks. 18Z runs will be very interesting in both intensity and track. East Coast of FL is not out of the woods. Seems to be pulling WNW or even NW.


Some models were showing possible routes much further west, but these later ones do seem to be indicating much more agreement on the mid to eastern GOM.
Quoting 1382. kcajax79:

How fast is this blob moving?


Good for you! - Not too many people use the proper technical terms like "blob" anymore. I like that, and I think Grothar might, too. (Didn't he invent the term?)
1388. Kumo
Quoting 1349. bigwes6844:


Pat all these doubters will realize to not speak too early. Thats why you wait and see before you make any judgement on a potential threat.


Aye. I am no expert like you folks here, but in 25 years that I have been casually observing these storms, I can remember that it doesn't take much to get one of these waves to turn into a very dangerous storm in a very short amount of time.

Good thing I went to Costco earlier in the week and stocked up on water. If this thing heads towards Houston, we are going to be really sucking for a while.
Quoting 1379. Barefootontherocks:

Comment filter default setting. Unless you reset your filter to "show all," you will miss a lot of good comments (probably this one and many from oldtimers due to use of the comment minus button during blog wars and gang flagging - back when the minus button existed).

Once you change the filter level, you must leave JeffMasters blog page and come back. If you don't, the change will not take effect and your filter will default to where it is now set.


LOL - Your comment was filtered out, too, and like I said, I don't block people. Will have to look into it.
Just throwing it out there. I am getting ice cream for this tonight XD
Quoting 1046. thetwilightzone:

99L is really starting too blow up this Am am starting too see deeper reds on 99L so may be hot towers




Indeed 99L is 'NO Erika'-
Truly, 99L 'Pre- Hermine' is a different type of beast altogether. Based on its predictions the system (given the current atmospheric conditions) is right on schedule for its projected development and strengthening -model wise.
Of course, had the conditions been right all along and or conditions for development were very favourable we would have probably been looking at a Major Hurricane quite a long time ago. Thankfully, that is not the case and it gives 99L less time before generally strengthening ahead of a possible Florida Impact etc...
Convection seems to be steadily building around its center of circulation, & perhaps that illusive Closed low level center of circulation will be found by the H.H. (Hurricane Hunters). Hopefully should it develop- it won't stall out over any land masses.
We should see a T.D. by tomorrow at least if this current organisation trend and strengthening continues.

God Bless!
Quoting 1387. WalkingInTheSun:



Good for you! - Not too many people use the proper technical terms like "blob" anymore. I like that, and I think Grothar might, too. (Didn't he invent the term?)

No clue....I am a noobie here but if is looks like a pig and sounds like a pig....chances are that is what it is at least for now.  I am in Jacksonville so we have been shielded from so much danger but if this thing keeps its slow pace and takes that easterly shift around the panhandle we could be in for a good soaking at the least and the Fla Bend is already pretty saturated, but we are in a bad drought in Jax
Quoting 1357. StormJunkie:

I think the naked swirl just jumped under the convection. If you look at the SE side of it, the clouds are no longer moving in the correct direction. They are now moving the same direction as the clouds on the NW side of the naked center. Any takers?


"Naked swirl", "naked center" -- not sure it's good to be naked in the midst of a developing storm. - Just sayin'. :)) (I bet even a pine needle naked at 50 mph could hurt!)
Quoting 1378. WalkingInTheSun:



Consensus can be good or bad.
Good if based on fact, and bad if based on politics or peer pressure that may lead to harm.

Models don't have peer pressure no politics each each Models state a different possibility all based on meterology
Quoting 1393. kcajax79:




Weeeell, I think some people were startin' to call 99L a "cow", but she is startin' to look like a "pig", after all.
Quoting 1388. Kumo:



Aye. I am no expert like you folks here, but in 25 years that I have been casually observing these storms, I can remember that it doesn't take much to get one of these waves to turn into a very dangerous storm in a very short amount of time.

Good thing I went to Costco earlier in the week and stocked up on water. If this thing heads towards Houston, we are going to be really sucking for a while.

Most people on this blog aren't experts there are a few exceptions but most are weather enthusiasts giving their thoughts on weather.
Enter low shear, stage right. I think it may be go time.
img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">
Quoting 1356. MahFL:



It's been 10 years since a hurricane hit Florida. Stocking up would have been a waste of $$$.


Some people in Texas, aside from the far SE of the state, haven't seen too much hurricane intensity for many years.
They weren't even born when some of the big ones hit, and they only rarely hear of them.
Some areas are blowing up with construction activity like the possibility of a hurricane doesn't enter their minds.
I think there should be more effort to at least produce building that are more aerodynamic. A few are. I saw some awhile back that look like they were designed to just let the windows blow out & the winds blow thru in the event of a hurricane. People have largely just forgotten how low and prone to destruction some areas are in the face of a big storm...or never knew it do to young age or being from another part of the U.S. (Lots if new people in TX now)
1400. Mikla
Quoting 1382. kcajax79:

How fast is this blob moving?

Average between the last two "fixes" was about 9 mph
1401. GatorWX
Quoting 1398. George1938:

Enter low shear, stage right. I think it may be go time.
img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">


Oy! Here we go again! Blogtastic news
1402. Mikla
Looks to be closed, but elongated.

Quoting 1376. SayWhatNHC33:

Earth School showing that the surface circulation is stacking surface thru 700
1404. Crazman
Surprised how dead the blog is with whats going on
1405. Crazman
Levi mentioned that the PV streamer thats been shearing the storm might finally be getting destroyed by the storm itself since heat causes them to diminish
Quoting 1395. MrTornadochase:


Models don't have peer pressure no politics each each Models state a different possibility all based on meterology
And in the case of a disorganized system, a lot of guesswork that sometimes amounts to garbage in, garbage out. 
Quoting 1404. Crazman:

Surprised how dead the blog is with whats going on


New Blog. Go up top and click on Jeff Master's Blog.
I wonder what's happening with Gaston while no one is watching!