WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Is the Wait-and-See Game With 99L Ending? Also, Tornadoes Rip Indiana and Ohio

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 3:27 PM GMT on August 25, 2016

A high-stakes game of wait-and-see is underway with a large but disorganized tropical wave (Invest 99L) centered near the southeastern Bahama Islands on Thursday morning. The storm brought heavy rains of 3 - 5” over the past 24 hours to portions of the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico, and was generating winds near tropical storm force in the waters to the north of Hispaniola. 99L could become a tropical depression or tropical storm at any time over the next three days as it heads west-northwest through The Bahamas. If 99L develops a well-defined surface circulation and tropical storm-force winds, it will be called Tropical Storm Hermine.

Satellite loops late Thursday morning showed the possibility that the game of wait-and-see may be ending. A well-defined surface circulation was attempting to form near the extreme southeastern portion of the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands. However, 99L’s heavy thunderstorms were several hundred miles to the southeast of this surface swirl, and there was very little thunderstorm activity near the center. Development of heavy thunderstorms was being inhibited by high wind shear of 15 - 25 knots and dry air, as seen on water vapor satellite imagery. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were favorable for development, though: 29°C (84°F). An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft was investigating 99L late Thursday morning, and at 11 am EDT found winds just below tropical storm-force--35 mph--a few hundred miles north of Hispaniola, on the east side of 99L's surface circulation.


Figure 1. Satellite image of 99L taken at 10:39 am EDT August 25, 2016. A surface circulation center was trying to form over the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands.

Track forecast for 99L
A strong upper-level ridge now covering much of the Southeast U.S. and northern Gulf of Mexico will remain in place through Saturday, which should keep 99L on its general west-northwest track for the next three days. The storm will slow down from its current 15 mph forward speed to about 8 mph on Friday and Saturday, and reach the northwest Bahamas on Saturday and South Florida or the Florida Keys on Sunday. At that point, the models predict that the ridge of high pressure steering the storm will weaken, allowing 99L to turn more to the north. The timing of this turn and how far 99L might make it into the Gulf of Mexico is uncertain, though the Florida Gulf Coast is currently the area of the Gulf Coast considered to be most at risk by the models.

Intensity forecast for 99L
Since 99L is now pulling away from the high mountains of Hispaniola and is moving into an area of higher moisture and lower wind shear, the storm is likely to consolidate around the circulation center attempting to form in the southeast Bahamas. The storm should be able to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm on Friday or Saturday. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will fall to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, on Friday through Sunday, and SSTs will increase to 30°C (86°F)—conditions that are very favorable for development. However, there will still be some dry air for 99L to contend with, and the storm is large, which will slow down development. The sinking air over the Western Atlantic associated with a phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) that is unfavorable for tropical storm development has decreased over the past two days, and it appears that the MJO will not be a factor in the intensity forecast for 99L.

Two of our three reliable models for predicting tropical genesis, the ECMWF and UKMET, continued to show development of 99L into a tropical storm by Friday in their latest 0Z Thursday (8 pm EDT Wednesday) runs. These models brought 99L across South Florida or the Florida Keys on Sunday and into the Gulf of Mexico, with a second landfall occurring on the Florida Gulf Coast on Tuesday. Our other reliable tropical cyclone genesis model, the GFS, continued to insist that 99L would not develop through Sunday. The initial track forecast for 99L in this morning’s run of the GFS was too close to the coast of Hispaniola compared to the European model’s track, so I think the European’s model’s forecast will be superior to the GFS forecast. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 99L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 50% and 80%, respectively. Unfortunately, we don’t have much skill forecasting rapid intensification, but the possibility exists that 99L could undergo a period of rapid intensification in the 24 hours before landfall in South Florida and arrive there as a Category 1 hurricane on Sunday. However, it is more likely that South Florida will experience a tropical storm. If the storm manages to spend an extra day of two over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday, 99L will have additional time to organize and intensify, and there is a greater chance it will be a hurricane for its second potential landfall on Tuesday.

Regardless of whether or not 99L ever becomes Tropical Storm Hermine, Florida is going to get a lot of rain from this system. The 7-day precipitation outlook from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC) calls for a large area of 5” - 8” rains across southern and western Florida over the next week. Such rains could put stress on the 80-year-old dike that protects thousands of residents near Lake Okeechobee, as I discussed in a special post yesterday.


Figure 2. The twister that produced widespread damage in Kokomo, IN, was captured in this still image drawn from a video. Image credit: Bruce Robinson via AP.

Localized tornado outbreak pummels Indiana, Ohio
An afternoon of garden-variety Midwest thunderstorms morphed into an Wednesday-evening swarm of tornadoes that surprised residents and forecasters alike. As of Thursday morning, NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) had tallied 35 tornado reports in Indiana and Ohio from 12Z (8:00 am EDT) Wednesday through 12Z Thursday. Most of these were associated with two powerful supercell thunderstorms that traveled from northern Indiana into northwest Ohio. Data from survey teams that were canvassing the region on Thursday will help nail down how many independent damage swaths were produced by the two apparent tornado “families”. The NWS/Indianapolis office will be posting images and information at a dedicated website.

Hardest-hit was the Kokomo area, about 60 miles north of Indianapolis, which was struck at the beginning of the outbreak just after 3:00 pm EDT Wednesday. The NWS confirmed EF3 damage in Kokomo, according to weather.com. Dozens of homes and businesses were damaged, and a Starbucks shop was flattened in dramatic fashion, as captured on the video embedded at bottom. People inside the Starbucks were not seriously hurt, as they had taken shelter within a bathroom. Amazingly, despite the widespread damage, only minor injuries had been reported in Kokomo as of Wednesday morning. Subsequent tornadoes produced far-flung but non-catastrophic damage for the next five hours, with the final twister in the mini-outbreak occurring around 8:00 pm EDT near Gallup, OH, more than 100 miles east-northeast of Kokomo.


Figure 3. A vehicle rests on another after a tornado struck in Kokomo, IN, on Wednesday, August, 24, 2016. Multiple tornadoes touched down in Indiana on Wednesday, tearing the roofs off apartment buildings, sending air conditioners falling onto parked cars, and cutting power to thousands of people. Image credit: TeeJay Crawford via AP.

What happened—and why?
Severe weather researchers are already puzzling over Wednesday’s event, which did not present itself earlier in the day as a classic set-up for tornadoes. Humid, unstable air was located over southern Indiana and Ohio, but this is a common occurrence across the Midwest in August. Cloudier, more stable conditions prevailed toward the north, and the resulting boundary appears to have served as a focal point for the day’s severe storms. NOAA/SPC had flagged northern Indiana and Ohio with only a marginal risk of severe weather earlier in the day, with less than a 2% chance of tornadoes. However, nearly all of the tornadoes were captured by SPC tornado watches, including one issued just a few minutes before Kokomo was struck, and the tornadoes themselves received ample warning from local NWS offices.

The biggest surprise is the lack of robust upper-level support for the tornadic storms. Paul Markowski (Pennsylvania State University) found only a modest amount of deep vertical wind shear in the closest upper-air soundings collected at 8:00 pm EDT Wednesday from Wilmington, OH, and Detroit, MI. Although vertical wind shear through the lowest few miles of the atmosphere is destructive to hurricanes, it helps support the asymmetric structure of tornadic supercells. However, the Wilmington and Detroit soundings did show strong low-level wind shear (between the surface and about 3000 feet). In addition, high relative humidities near the surface meant that the bases of the supercell storms were quite low, which would have enhanced rising motion in the vicinity of the low-level shear—a boon for tornado development.

Bob Henson (tornado portion) and Jeff Masters (99L portion)



Video 1. The exterior of a Starbucks shop is destroyed by tornadic winds as videotaped from an adjacent business. Patrons at the Starbucks had taken shelter in the store’s bathroom, and none were hurt seriously.

Hurricane Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 484. Drakoen:

Euro trending towards the GFS. It seems the high shear is following 99L and that's really the problem.



Well, I was just looking at nullschool and the wind chart, and I don't know how up to date it is at any time TBH, but it looks like the anticyclone it has been under, has stayed with the upper level circulation down below Hispaniola, and the lower circulation (if you can call it actual circulation at the mo?!) is now under the higher shear to the north of the anticyclone. I could very very well be seeing/using it wrong though?
Quoting 493. wunderkidcayman:

models big shift S and W




wow. such a broad grouping compared to 12 or 6 hours ago. unreal. Luckily, we don't have a train of waves behind it. We can be confuzzled by just this one invest.
Why is all the cloud cover for 99L so far to the south? Could something like this make the center more likely to form down there?
Life was different in the 70s and 80s no Models tp look at only the 6 and 10 pm news,also a weather radio.
Quoting 499. bocawind:



I have been wondering why meteo-nerds seem to be only interested in storms if they have a potential to cause death and destruction. There are plenty of storms everywhere, the Pacific for instance, that could be tracked. Or what about Gaston, like you mentioned?


Are you from Boca Raton?
Quoting 488. Sharkicane:

Honestly, the forecast models have completely wet the bed on this storm. Particularly the euro. Still, this storm is not over. The euro is not the final authority.. If it was, then the blog wouldn't be imploding because the ECMWF changed its mind yet again.
 Dmax is still to come, and 99L is a woman of the night. Obviously the NHC hasn't given up yet because there are still flights heading into the storm.We will see what happens.
"and 99L is a woman of the night." I like that. You have a way with words. :)
508. IDTH
Quoting 493. wunderkidcayman:

models big shift S and W



Predicting 99L's next move correctly is like winning the lottery at this point.
Quoting 499. bocawind:



I have been wondering why meteo-nerds seem to be only interested in storms if they have a potential to cause death and destruction. There are plenty of storms everywhere, the Pacific for instance, that could be tracked. Or what about Gaston, like you mentioned?


Most of the people here aren't interested in the storms per se, they are interested in knowing whether or not their homes will be in the target path. They don't want destruction, most want to see the storm dissipate.
Quoting 505. victoria780:

Life was different in the 70s and 80s no Models tp look at only the 6 and 10 pm news,also a weather radio.

Quoting 462. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Looking down the pike while keeping one eye on 99L it looks like the GFS and Euro are consistently coming into agreement on the next wave about to emerge off the coast of Africa in about 4-6 days. The GFS keeps it weaker than Gaston and moves it west for awhile under the Azores High rebuilding after Gaston gets pulled northeast above it and OTS. The tropics are going to stay active as we get closer to the climatological peak, so there will be more storms to track.
Been watching that over the last several days, wave expected to come off middle of next week on Wendesday.
It has almost been comical watching the models try to figure 99l out. Quite frankly, they have been all over the place in tracking and intensity. I guess that is to be expected given that this invest is so disorganized. I know things can change quickly, but honestly 99l doesn't look any better now than it did two days ago. As for where it is going and how strong it will be, I would not trust any of the models until this thing organizes, if it ever does.
This sure is wild. It seems our models are getting even more confused each year. I am sure i am wrong...it just feels that way the last few years.
515. elioe
Quoting 437. masiello3:

I don't think its as much seeding the atmosphere as global warming is affecting the atmosphere differently than we thought. I feel there has been much more dry air in the Atlantic lately, and I think it has to do with the increased desertification of Africa. With the increased desertification, more dry air (Saharan Dust) has been released into the atmosphere, chocking the storms before they could develop. Also we could just be going through a wave, and we'll be in a slump for another 5-10 years before things ramp up again. Though I do find it weird how little Florida has had to deal with tropical storms in the last years, its weird.


I think quite the contrary. During the period 2009-2015, August and September rainfall in Western Sahel has been pretty consistently above average. I think this has contributed to tropical development farther to the north and east, and therefore a greater chance of recurvature before America. Meanwhile, a stretch of anomalously warm water has extended from Antilles to Canary Islands. I think that air flow from this region to Sahara has strengthened the rainfall in ITCZ and shifted it towards the north. And yes, I think it is related to climate change and it is a trend that will continue. On the other hand: perhaps over time, North America will begin to exhibit similar monsoon cycles as India, causing wind shear to be high in Gulf of Mexico during peak season...
Monday

Quoting 496. LouisPasteur:



What's wrong with the blog that makes it intolerable? Masters and Henson do a nice job of covering current tropical weather topics. I find their blogs very informative and not the least bit intolerable.
he's talking about the comment section.
Quick question? Did 99L go through Herbert Box#1? Did not so organized Katrina and/or Andrew? Any thoughts on this?
Down to 25kt over it
Quoting 500. Sharkicane:




Quoting 495. Patrap:








Clarity on 99L would be nice sooner rather than later. That GNFI is alarming.
Quoting 505. victoria780:

Life was different in the 70s and 80s no Models tp look at only the 6 and 10 pm news,also a weather radio.





*lowers the hurricane flag to half staff*



Anyone from Florida to Texas needs to watch 99L.
Quoting 437. masiello3:

I don't think its as much seeding the atmosphere as global warming is affecting the atmosphere differently than we thought. I feel there has been much more dry air in the Atlantic lately, and I think it has to do with the increased desertification of Africa. With the increased desertification, more dry air (Saharan Dust) has been released into the atmosphere, chocking the storms before they could develop. Also we could just be going through a wave, and we'll be in a slump for another 5-10 years before things ramp up again. Though I do find it weird how little Florida has had to deal with tropical storms in the last years, its weird.
Is everyone getting weird or is this a sci-fi blog
It's a ghost storm...



With a dangerous path

if this thing ever does get a closed circulation you'll probably see the models come into agreement on the track, intensity probably not.
Quoting 505. victoria780:

Life was different in the 70s and 80s no Models tp look at only the 6 and 10 pm news,also a weather radio.



AND tv channels actually signed off after the last show aired at midnight, with an air force flyover and the american flag...then poof go to colored screen and beeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeep
Quoting 508. IDTH:


Predicting 99L's next move correctly is like winning the lottery at this point.


It is as if the models took darts and threw them at the board with a blindfold on and said "yup that'll do". What a mess.
Quoting 492. IDTH:


Still plenty of uncertainty.
I think we should discount the models that call for hurricane as we did the gfs
Hope The Weather Channel didn't already spend the anticipated higher ad revenue for this weekend.
I do think we have an issue on our hand right now on the island of Hispaniola, The coldest and highest cloud tops have been over the island for 12-14 hours. Could be seeing landslides and flooding, Does anyone have any reports from the island?
Sorry folks, I'm out. Not worth watching this anymore, until it blows up convection I'm throwing in the towel. lol ;)
Quoting 528. FyrtleMyrtle:



AND tv channels actually signed off after the last show aired at midnight, with an air force flyover and the american flag...then poof go to colored screen and beeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeep


Dear lord I actually remember that X_x Now I feel super old.
Even if we don't get a big storm here in South Florida this weekend, the storm surge could be a big story here.

Please read attached

Link
the models will b all over the place TILL they have something to latch on, like a closed low
Quoting 499. bocawind:



I have been wondering why meteo-nerds seem to be only interested in storms if they have a potential to cause death and destruction. There are plenty of storms everywhere, the Pacific for instance, that could be tracked. Or what about Gaston, like you mentioned?


For many on here, there is an economic concern, both in preparation and in cleanup should a strong storm hit. It took at least three years here in South Florida for many people to be made somewhat whole again after hurricane Andrew destroyed everything. We, alone, had to go through three different contractors before our house was back to it was before the storm. The cost of stocking up on supplies is expensive, especially for those on tight budgets. Rightly or wrongly, for many, restocking batteries and canned foods and water and gas etc. occurs a few days before landfall. For many more, curiosity killed the cat so to speak. It's really no different than they adrenalin junkies chasing tornadoes. Some do it for the science and others do it for the thrill. The lesson of waiting on every model run and pontificating as such never seems to be learned only to watch as things change day by day and even hour by hour thus leaving one frazzled. Weather will always be an inexact science. As a weather observer, I am reminded of the Wag and Swag we were taught in observing school at Chanute AFB many years ago (long since closed). A WAG is a wild ass guess. A SWAG is a scientific wild ass guess. Unfortunately, when the Weather Channel or other sources of info (from News Forecasters etc.) comes up wrong in sounding the warnings, people often tune out the next go around. They do so at there own peril, but not always unfounded due to hype. Some are better than others at reminding people to not get too worried. In my mind, the word "potential" is often used as hype.
8 inches reported dominican republic twc
Quoting 522. CW7859:

*lowers the hurricane flag to half staff*




People can breathe easy now, knowing that this will not likely be a major and dangerous threat, likely a moderate-strong TS, if it forms at all.
Most of the moisture is behind mountainous Hispaniola. Will it get a breath of life by pulling some moisture through the Windward Passage in a few hours?
I think it looks like the swirl is just starting to see the effects of a little less shear. The last few frames on the visible seem to depict a slight increasing in the thickness of the low-level cloud bands to me.
Quoting 535. Terri2003:

Even if we don't get a big storm here in South Florida this weekend, the storm surge could be a big story here.

Please read attached

Link


weather.com/science/environment/news/south-florid a-increased-surge-flooding-threat
Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Click image for loop.

Quoting 506. birdsrock2016:



Are you from Boca Raton?


Yes. Couple of miles from the ocean...
I know the focus is on 99L, but I'm surprised more people aren't talking about the fact the ECMWF has been showing a hurricane trucking westwards the MDR for the last few runs. I mentioned a few days ago that even if 99L doesn't develop into a significant cyclone (a rapidly increasing possibility, imo) the pattern that caused 99L to be where it is may bring further storms west. Obviously this is 240 hours out, and given the magnitude of change we've seen with 99L we should expect this to change, but it bares keeping an eye on in the medium-long range. The wave could emerge and begin to develop as soon as Tuesday, too.




Quoting 521. Patrap:








Now that goes back to the bad old days! I remember Nash and his marker board!
Keep a close eye on the bands in the SE quadrant.

Quoting 543. Patrap:

Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Click image for loop.


Quoting 521. Patrap:








Growing up in Baton Rouge I remember those days with Mike Graham making the forecasts!
Quoting 539. Climate175:

People can breathe easy now, knowing that this will not likely be a major and dangerous threat, likely a moderate-strong TS, if it forms at all.


Very very very!!!! irresponsible!! quote,this is a very large system that could intensify! very quickly.
Big tropical wave to come off african coast on saturday, models want to develop that wave. interesting times in the eastern atlantic next week. This could become Ian.
Quoting 545. CybrTeddy:

I know the focus is on 99L, but I'm surprised more people aren't talking about the fact the ECMWF has been showing a hurricane trucking westwards the MDR for the last few runs. I mentioned a few days ago that even if 99L doesn't develop into a significant cyclone (a rapidly increasing possibility, imo) the pattern that caused 99L to be where it is may bring further storms west. Obviously this is 240 hours out, and given the magnitude of change we've seen with 99L we should expect this to change, but it bares keeping an eye on in the medium-long range. The wave could emerge and develop as soon as Tuesday, too.





thats the point, its a whiles out. IF in 10 days theres a storm like that heading west people will be talking but I don't see it, if the models can't pick up on 99l I don't believe there gonna be able to pick up on something that hasn't even left the coast yet.
Quoting 535. Terri2003:

Even if we don't get a big storm here in South Florida this weekend, the storm surge could be a big story here.

Please read attached

Link


Working version of link
Quoting 519. SFLWeatherman:

Down to 25kt over it



Its going to be interesting watching this thing tonight go from 25kt of shear to 5kt in the morning. Only then will we maybe have a better idea of what the hell this thing is going to do.
I wouldn't write this off just yet. There's a very subtle increase in cloud mass around the LLC. 99L should be working it's way out of high shear now into moderate to low shear. If anyone remembers what Katrina looked like a few days before landfall in Miami, it was a lot like this.
Quoting 549. Hurricane1956:



Very very very!!!! irresponsible!! quote,this is a very large system that could intensify! very quickly.

Settle down Francis.....
I have been talking about the hurricane the Euro has shown for quite sometime now since it is the name I've been looking forward to the most.....but you have me on ignore so....there's that..I'm just glad Ian will not be a garbage storm.We won't know what the pattern may be like out in the Atlantic at that time.
This system was not suppose to get its act together until Friday.
FYI Its Thursday
I told myself I wouldn't waste another day staring at satellite loops yet here I am, back at the helm and the grey water pipe still hasn't learnt how to un-block itself. *sighs*
Quoting 528. FyrtleMyrtle:



AND tv channels actually signed off after the last show aired at midnight, with an air force flyover and the american flag...then poof go to colored screen and beeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeep


Ah, the days of the test pattern as being the only thing showing on TV at night.



Then they became more modern as more TVs were capable of showing color.

Quoting 557. blueyedbiker:

This system was not suppose to get its act together until Friday.
FYI Its Thursday


FYI is was SUPPOSED to be in the central Bahamas by Friday too, not slamming into the Cuban coast and going POOF. If if's and buts were candy and nuts...
Someone asked earlier and I did not see a response. Did 99L go through Herbert's box, the one further east? Sure looks like it did.
Quoting 521. Patrap:








Used to love to track storms this way with my Dad while watching Dick Faurot on TV10
Okay, I just booked 4 rooms for a Monday night arrival in North Louisiana...guess you can all relax now. That should about guarantee that 99L won't be heading anywhere near the Louisiana coast line.
i think it dead.
looking at the last satellite loops there is definitely an increase of cloud coverage around the LLC, if that forms into thunderstorms is yet to be seen, but these next 12 hours will make or break it.
12z UKMET

12z CMC

Will I get credit for rightfully saying 99l is done. If you look at the dry air and shear in Bahamas it was obvious.
So sick of being ignored.
12z HWRF





I took some heat this morning for pointing out 99L becoming less organized overnight. And now several hours later, it's even less organized. And hence why I said, focus on the near term. Models, especially in the Atlantic, have a nasty tendency to over-develop storms in the long term while failing to see that short term negatives will make a disturbance too weak to ever become nearly as strong as these models believe. We see this pattern repeated again and again on the blog. And I know it'll always happen because that's just the nature of the crowd and there's nothing wrong with that at all. But I'm just trying to make it a learning experience. I'm more convinced than ever that my basic principle for forecasting tropical cyclogenesis, but also a tornado outbreak, winter storm, etc., is built on a firm foundation. And that is, always ask yourself, not why a storm will form, but why it will not. Look at the negatives before the positives. It only takes one negative to prevent a storm from happening, and 99L has dealt with many more than one. Only when you've exhausted all your (reasonable) negatives should you jump fully on board for development.

Sorry for rambling, and it's still possible 99L develops down the line, but it's now extremely unlikely to be a high impact event.
Quoting 563. ajcamsmom2:

Okay, I just booked 4 rooms for a Monday night arrival in North Louisiana...guess you can all relax now. That should about guarantee that 99L won't be heading anywhere near the Louisiana coast line.


That's how I feel about myself. If I go to grad school next year, you're on your own Wilmington.
Quoting 560. CW7859:



FYI is was SUPPOSED to be in the central Bahamas by Friday too, not slamming into the Cuban coast and going POOF. If if's and buts were candy and nuts...


Doesn't seem to be slamming into Cuba if you ask me:
Visible Satellite Link
Quoting 568. Camille33:

Will I get credit for rightfully saying 99l is done. If you look at the dry air and shear in Bahamas it was obvious.
So sick of being ignored.


its not even through the bahamas yet, give it a rest.
Hurricane Hunters on the way again to investigate 99L. Currently 108 miles SE of Nassau flying south.
im gonna play a little devil advocates here and say this thing tonight gets its act together and becomes a tropical storm, don't think it will happen but just go along and say it does. what do you think the models will do with it than, i think south florida is in the clear, but could the keys see a strengthening tropical storm coming towards them, especially if the shear remains weak? and I still don't like the idea of anything with a circulation heading into the gulf when it is that warm. do you think they would have it strengthening to a major hurricane or just a mid range tropical storm heading for the gulf coast? don't think it would happen but would like to see what you guys would think would happen, a lot of you on here are much experienced when it comes to tropical cyclones so would like to here what you think?
Quoting 573. earthisanocean:



its not even through the bahamas yet, give it a rest.

That is not how a forecast works. When one model suddenly goes towards another model, the latter is usually right. I don't believe in continuity between forecasts and trending lower. Thwre is right or wrong period.
578. ariot
Quoting 528. FyrtleMyrtle:



AND tv channels actually signed off after the last show aired at midnight, with an air force flyover and the american flag...then poof go to colored screen and beeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeep


Most of the laws requiring evidence of public service for the privilege of using the public-owned broadcast spectrum for an insanely low fee were removed in sweeping deregulation of broadcast, cable and satellite TV in the 1980s and later in the 1990s.

The sign on, sign off, and station ID are still required, but modified.

"Station Identification. Stations must air identification announcements when they sign on and off for the day. They also must broadcast these announcements every hour, as close to the start of the hour as possible, at a natural programming break. TV stations may make these announcements on-screen or by voice only. Official station identification includes the station’s call letters, followed by the community specified in its license as the station’s location. Between the call letters and its community, the station may insert the name of the licensee, the station’s channel number, and/or its frequency. It may also include any additional community or communities, as long as it first names the community to which it is licensed by the FCC. DTV stations also may identify their digital multicast programming streams separately if they wish, and, if so, must follow the format described in the FCC’s rules.

Commencing as of a date to be determined, for television stations, twice daily, the station identification will also have to include a notice of the existence, location and accessibility of the station’s public file. The notice will have to state that the station’s public file is available for inspection and that members of the public can view it at the station’s main studio and on its station website. Broadcast of at least one of these announcements will be required between the hours of 6 p.m. and midnight."
Quoting 572. carolinabelle:



Doesn't seem to be slamming into Cuba if you ask me:
Visible Satellite Link
Currently moving west and if it continues and the llc is what many have identified it will slam into the northern coast of Cuba.
Quoting 563. ajcamsmom2:

Okay, I just booked 4 rooms for a Monday night arrival in North Louisiana...guess you can all relax now. That should about guarantee that 99L won't be heading anywhere near the Louisiana coast line.


Thank You ajcamsmom :)
Shouldn't that wanted dead or alive read"..
Hispaniola, wanted dead or alive for the murder of " Countess Storm" instead of countless storms?
Weather humor
I for one would love to see this wave go away. I stated earlier I'm moving from SW FL to NE FL on Sept. 2nd. However, its does look horrible right now, but we have a "wave" that loves the night.. and less shear in the morning could mean trouble. You may not want to hang on every word, every model run, but check in from time to time just for the heck of it.
Quoting 575. masiello3:

im gonna play a little devil advocates here and say this thing tonight gets its act together and becomes a tropical storm, don't think it will happen but just go along and say it does. what do you think the models will do with it than, i think south florida is in the clear, but could the keys see a strengthening tropical storm coming towards them, especially if the shear remains weak? and I still don't like the idea of anything with a circulation heading into the gulf when it is that warm. do you think they would have it strengthening to a major hurricane or just a mid range tropical storm heading for the gulf coast? don't think it would happen but would like to see what you guys would think would happen, a lot of you on here are much experienced when it comes to tropical cyclones so would like to here what you think?
I kinda rushed that and my tenses and spelling are all over the place, bear with me lol.
Quoting 551. masiello3:

thats the point, its a whiles out. IF in 10 days theres a storm like that heading west people will be talking but I don't see it, if the models can't pick up on 99l I don't believe there gonna be able to pick up on something that hasn't even left the coast yet.


*shrug*, they picked up Gaston over 5 days in advance and showed it developing into a hurricane. This system would more than likely be a less complicated genesis scenario than 99L was.
Quoting 533. RitaEvac:

Sorry folks, I'm out. Not worth watching this anymore, until it blows up convection I'm throwing in the towel. lol ;)


Watch Gaston, he's just hit a bit of a hiccough this afternoon, meer niet
going to call 99 "comeback Kid" tomorrow as long as the invest remains offshore Cuba.
587. IDTH
Quoting 577. Camille33:


That is not how a forecast works. When one model suddenly goes towards another model, the latter is usually right. I don't believe in continuity between forecasts and trending lower. Thwre is right or wrong period.


Treating meteorology as black and white is dumb at best, and dangerous at worst.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/wind s/wg8shr.GIF
A developing system can't for under 25 kt shear. Only a tropical cyclone can survive that. Especially directional 25 kt wind shear.
12z Euro


Quoting 559. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



Ah, the days of the test pattern as being the only thing showing on TV at night.



Then they became more modern as more TVs were capable of showing color.

after sweet memory's,born to lose again.

Quoting 584. CybrTeddy:



*shrug*, they picked up Gaston over 5 days in advance and showed it developing into a hurricane.
I see your point but than again, thats 5 days out, they're predicting it 6-10 days out. I personally hate the long term models cause they're almost every time wrong, except from some cases but overall their success rate is like 10-20%.
After this fiasco,I hope they retire 99l
596. IDTH
New video from Mr. Sudduth

Link
Quoting 594. victoria780:

After this fiasco,I hope they retire 99l

lmao, it would be insensitive to put people through this forecasting pain again.
Quoting 594. victoria780:

After this fiasco,I hope they retire 99l


LOL, what would they replace it with? 89L? Haha very funny!
So are we south Floridians out of the woods?????
Quoting 593. masiello3:

I see your point but than again, thats 5 days out, they're predicting it 6-10 days out. I personally hate the long term models cause they're almost every time wrong, except from some cases but overall their success rate is like 10-20%.


I'm fully aware of that. I'm merely trying to point out the pattern that we're in.
Still another 24-32 hours until we really know what will happen.
Quoting 533. RitaEvac:

Sorry folks, I'm out. Not worth watching this anymore, until it blows up convection I'm throwing in the towel. lol ;)


It's blown up convection several times and then fizzles.
Quoting 568. Camille33:

Will I get credit for rightfully saying 99l is done. If you look at the dry air and shear in Bahamas it was obvious.
So sick of being ignored.


You are ignored again....bye bye,
Am I imagining or do I see the circulation starting to close?
Quoting 599. weatherman994:

So are we south Floridians out of the woods?????


Not yet but the probability of a major hit seems to be reducing. Still could see a TS but who knows.
Quoting 595. Patrap:








I wonder what kind of comedy would ensue if the GFS suddenly blew up 99L this run.
Quoting 601. anthmiranda:

Still another 24-32 hours until we really know what will happen.


That's what they said 24 hours ago
So, is it Hebert, A Bear, or Hebert, He Burt box?

My first husband, and my last name was Hebert, A Bear.
Quoting 604. kuppenskup:

Am I imagining or do I see the circulation starting to close?


It certainly looks like it's slowing down now.
Quoting 574. stormwatcherCI:

Hurricane Hunters on the way again to investigate 99L. Currently 108 miles SE of Nassau flying south.

doubt they will be flying as low as they should NOAA RECON tends to fly at slightly higher altitude than the USAFR RECON

Quoting 579. stormwatcherCI:

Currently moving west and if it continues and the llc is what many have identified it will slam into the northern coast of Cuba.


yep

looks like we could see first landfall on little Inagua or passing between Little and Great Inagua imo
Quoting 604. kuppenskup:

Am I imagining or do I see the circulation starting to close?
not as much as closing but just an increase of cloud coverage, none of the clouds are thunderstorms but if they do flare up we could see some development.
There have been many storms to track off Africa and not form till really close.

But many have also puttered far before dying

Also, is there a way to see the current shear with the visible satellite ZOOMED into the Bahamas?
Next 12 hours are key.

"Rumors of my demise have been greatly exaggerated" - Twain

Don't look now but the shear has dropped markedly over 99L
Quoting 473. masiello3:

is that 969 or 989 can't tell?
It's 969 mb
For the moment, looks like Pico Duarte in RD made GFS win over ECMWF...

Quoting 592. Patrap:


If it makes the Florida Straits without making contact with Cuba, development is likely..Steering currents are very weak there, so it will linger a bit...Greetings Pat.
The weather doesn't run on anyone's schedule. Yours or mine included snippy.
Quoting 607. kuppenskup:


That's what they said 24 hours ago

along with a decrease of shear, 99L appears to have slowed its forward movement. Might see slow development if this persists, especially with the water temperature it is currently sitting over.
I expect we'll see a yellow X this weekend for that wave over Africa the models are predicting to be quite vigorous.

Intersting to see the models further south/west - could be bad news if it gets to spend a decent amount of time in the GOM.

Tonight will be very interesting, as it should be moving under lower shear, over higher SSTs and into air with higher humidity levels. All in time for Dmax. Perhaps then it'll be able to get itself together.
Quoting 611. masiello3:

not as much as closing but just an increase of cloud coverage, none of the clouds are thunderstorms but if they do flare up we could see some development.


I know a lot of people are posting imagery of visible satellite, but I think Water vapor really tells the story right now for 99L. Have a look at that, and notice the overall environment is gradually growing more favorable, a little less dry air, more showers in the vicinity, more being produced by the invest itself. Some attempts to throw some over the center.
Even if it gets into the Gulf it won't explode unless it gets to the central and western Gulf. There's no real heat content at all in the eastern Gulf.
Quoting 559. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



Ah, the days of the test pattern as being the only thing showing on TV at night.



Then they became more modern as more TVs were capable of showing color.




Hey Rookie.

Down here after sign off they put up the live radar screen with this cuban dude's monotone reading of the weather synopsis(NOAA Weather Radio). Was the 1st thing I'd check every morning... No internet!
Quoting 620. SSL1441:



I know a lot of people are posting imagery of visible satellite, but I think Water vapor really tells the story right now for 99L. Have a look at that, and notice the overall environment is gradually growing more favorable, a little less dry air, more showers in the vicinity, more being produced by the invest itself. Some attempts to throw some over the center.
very true.
how do you post images on the blog, I'm pretty new to this?
Quoting 594. victoria780:

After this fiasco,I hope they retire 99l



It caused millions of dollars in wasted time and killed dozens of wunderblogger's faiths.
There is definitely some circular motion north of the NW corner of Haiti.......I have no idea what it means but its as clear as day in the last frame.
628. IDTH
Quoting 619. Envoirment:

I expect we'll see a yellow X this weekend for that wave over Africa the models are predicting to be quite vigorous.

Intersting to see the models further south/west - could be bad news if it gets to spend a decent amount of time in the GOM.

Tonight will be very interesting, as it should be moving under lower shear, over higher SSTs and into air with higher humidity levels. All in time for Dmax. Perhaps then it'll be able to get itself together.

Again I'm still worried about 99L, it's definitely going to end up further south than the model runs from 12z had it at this rate, the question being whether or not it survives (or slams into Cuba).
I see all the weather watchers are still watching weather!

Long time no see. Hope everyone is doing well...
We may all joke around,including myself however ,the Hurricane Center takes it very serious,including several people here.I guess this makes it very interesting.
We need to be watching 99L here in Texas.
Lurker from baton rouge here... been watching this storm for a couple days and after last weeks weather event here, pretty weary. I do remember Katrina being very similar.. correct me if I am wrong, but she was a disorganized cluster of storms that weren't even being investigated until she hit the bahamas... With that wide array of possibilities and history and then last week being hit with a flooding event that I was unprepared for, I wouldn't tell anyone to not be somewhat prepared for a possible weather event..

Reading online, I found this quote "Katrina had her origins in the Bahamas as a rather disorganized area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. During her early stages of development, the would-be Katrina looked like a sloppy concoction of disorganized cloudiness, and it seemed improbable that this area of low pressure could develop into anything consequential." With that being said, I will stock up on some water, charcoal and canned food, just in case. Being without power for several days last week sucked.. But I was more fortunate than most that I didn't have my house flood. I will keep watching.. I do appreciate everyone's input and learn a lot from it :)
Quoting 627. nola70119:

There is definitely some circular motion north of the NW corner of Haiti.......I have no idea what it means but its as clear as day in the last frame.
what do you mean, the swirl?
Quoting 621. Jcarbo04:

Even if it gets into the Gulf it won't explode unless it gets to the central and western Gulf. There's no real heat content at all in the eastern Gulf.


Heat content doesn't really matter as much as SSTs do and SSTs in the gulf are widely 29-31C. Heat content generally allows a storm to maintain itself better and to not be plagued by upwelling caused by slow movement. Low wind shear, SSTs of 29C+ and moist air should be sufficient for a good amount of strengthening. You only have to look at a lot of CV storms which don't have high heat content but high SSTs that go on to become majors.
Link
Quoting 561. bythegraceofgod:

Someone asked earlier and I did not see a response. Did 99L go through Herbert's box, the one further east? Sure looks like it did.

I believe this thing about the Hebert boxes only works if they go through the boxes as a Hurricane.Hebert


Here is the wv image spoken of earlier.

638. OKsky
Quoting 624. masiello3:

how do you post images on the blog, I'm pretty new to this?


Use the icon button that sorta looks like a picture to the left of where it says "Rich Text". It will ask you for a URL. Make sure you remove the 's' if your URL starts with "https". If you don't have a URL, you can get one by uploading your pic to a service such as imgur.com.
Quoting 599. weatherman994:

So are we south Floridians out of the woods?????
yes all models say yes.
Quoting 634. masiello3:

what do you mean, the swirl?


Its a feature just above where Haiti and Dominican Republic meet.......a circular motion of clouds, if you want to call that a swirl OK. It may be gone in the next frames but look at the last visible on the blog the last frame.
I don't see how are rain chances between 50% to 70% here on the coast is going to play out considering 99L is taking a different route. We could still use the rain here on the coast :(

National Weather Service Melbourne FL
345 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...Closely watching Invest 99L, no immediate threat to central FL...

TONIGHT...
Stubborn H100-H70 anticyclone blanketing the SE CONUS/nrn GOMex will
maintain a steady NE flow acrs central FL overnight. Theta-E ridge
over the Treasure Coast/Lake-O region will be shunted into the south
peninsula to be replaced by the leading edge of a slightly drier and
more stable continental airmass that the NE flow has been pulling
down the ern seaboard over the past 24-48hrs.

RAP analysis showing H100-H70 mean RH values btwn 60-70pct from
Brevard/Osceola Co northward...resulting in a notable lack of precip
along and north of the I-4 corridor. Will follow this trend
overnight with PoPs AOB 20pct over most of the CWA...ending over the
interior from Osceola northward aft 03Z. Will keep 30pct along the
Treasure Coast due to their closer proximity to the deeper moisture.
Strong maritime influence will keep min temps well abv avg...M/U70s
with L80s psbl along the immediate coast.

*USER`S NOTE* The discussion that follows is based on latest model
data and trends. A large degree of uncertainty is inherent with
forecasting open tropical waves such as INVEST 99L. It should be
noted that future model runs may result in large scale changes. We
strongly advise everyone to pay close attention to this system and
monitor the latest forecasts and outlooks from the National
Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center and the National Weather
Service.

FRI-SUN...(modified prev disc)
H100-H70 Anticyclone over the Deep South/nrn GOMEX will be
reinforced by a smaller/weaker anticyclone over The Central Plains
as the latter bridges a weakening frontal boundary separating the
two. This merging action in turn will draw the anticyclone northward
into the Mid Atlc/Midwest/Great Lakes region...allowing INVEST 99L to
work its way W/NW acrs the Bahama Bank toward the FL peninsula.

GFS/ECMWF models continue to show significant divergence in
track/intensity of INVEST 99L. Even so, a general WNW track of the
system (in whatever form it may take) is indicated from the
Turks/Caicos acrs the SE/central Bahamas through Saturday night.
Deep NErly flow will continue acrs central FL and the adjacent
Atlantic waters. Local pres grad will tighten by late Sat aftn,
especially across the Treasure Coast/Lake-O region along with an
attendant increase in moisture. This portends an increase in both
daytime and nocturnal showers.

By late Sunday, timing, intensity, and track differences begin to
become more noticeable, and thus favoring one deterministic model
run over another would be an effort in futility. The extent of
increase in moisture/wind for our CWA, particularly the southern
counties, will be highly dependent upon the strength of the system,
and given its current disheveled state, it is simply too early to
get specific or quantitative about wind speeds and rainfall, though
higher rain chances and intensity seems likely over the south.
Thunderstorms will remain isold at best as is often the case with
tropical airmasses. Even so, given the tightening pressure gradient,
gusty squalls may accompany some of the fast moving intense showers,
especially along the coast.

Current forecast continues the trend of increasing clouds and rain
chances, with occasionally breezy conditions near the SE coast.
Temps near climo should trend slightly below for maxes, given the
above mentioned factors.

MON-WED...(prev disc)
The overall model trend for early next week has been to show a
faster erosion of the eastern CONUS/western Atlantic ridge. This
would result in 99L (again in whatever form it may take by that
time) making a sharper northward bend through the eastern GOMEX
Monday-Tuesday, much closer to the Florida west coast, and
eventually toward the Florida big bend sometime on Tuesday. If this
scenario were to come to fruition, it would extend the time frame of
impacts through Tuesday, especially in the form of heavy rain and
tornadic threats.

Of course, a more gradual westward turn, which is entirely possible
and may be indicated by subsequent model runs (given the continuity
issues we`ve already seen) would mitigate these threats to some
degree. In any event, the forecast shows winds veering more to the
south, with very deep moisture and high cloud cover/rain chances.
Above average rain chances are also indicated for Wednesday with the
flow forecast to veer more southwesterly.

Max temps are shaded slightly below normal for early week, trending
a little closer to climo toward mid week.

&&
Probably the worst its looked since it was a wave. You got this, Gaston!

643. IDTH
Quoting 631. nash36:



Idk, but I can safely say everyone on this blog would have THIS reaction:



Thanks, I'm going to have nightmares about that image now.
The winds with this storm have really diminished which is a bit concerning for development, also is the recon right now sampling the conditions out in front of it?
You can already start to see the convection being pulled back in and starting to fire well ahead of the coc...I think dmax might start to cover her up. I think it's just a sign of the environment starting to improve. Really could go either way at the moment...
Quoting 635. Envoirment:



Heat content doesn't really matter as much as SSTs do and SSTs in the gulf are widely 29-31C. Heat content generally allows a storm to maintain itself better and to not be plagued by upwelling caused by slow movement. Low wind shear, SSTs of 29C+ and moist air should be sufficient for a good amount of strengthening. You only have to look at a lot of CV storms which don't have high heat content but high SSTs that go on to become majors.


Case and point: Hugo. But the difference was it wasn't busy upwelling too much cold water because Hugo was booking it.
Notice the COC of 99L already is over the Bahamas

Quoting 625. jlp09550:




Is this rapid scan? Good image!
Where are they calling the COC at this time?
Poor guy, at least there looks to be a few days of better conditions ahead.

Quoting 621. Jcarbo04:

Even if it gets into the Gulf it won't explode unless it gets to the central and western Gulf. There's no real heat content at all in the eastern Gulf.

You have no clue what you are talking about. That heat content matters only if a system sits in one place for a while. The ssts in gulf are 30 c so if it moves fast it can intensify with ease. But the other factors clearly don't support that.
Quoting 627. nola70119:

There is definitely some circular motion north of the NW corner of Haiti.......I have no idea what it means but its as clear as day in the last frame.


Yep, spin is readily apparent. That's the general part of the wave that is supposed to do something once it hits favorable conditions.

People keep assessing it like it is a TS that has been sheared into naked circulation when it hasn't even formed for the first time, nor was it supposed to even with the most aggressive, alarming model runs. Too much effort spent on trying to see something every metric says isn't there at all.

Quoting 648. seminolesfan:



Is this rapid scan? Good image!

I simply fetch the imagery that the NASA GHCC website is providing. I've noticed they do tend to update much more frequently when something noteworthy is appearing on imagery.
Quoting 647. sunlinepr:

Notice the COC of 99L already is over the Bahamas


Quoting 647. sunlinepr:

Notice the COC of 99L already is over the Bahamas




That is where I am seeing the circular motion of clouds......its pretty obvious and also possibly meaningless. But the real action starts tonight pretty sure of that......it certainly did last night.


Not very impressive.
Quoting 642. win1gamegiantsplease:

Probably the worst its looked since it was a wave. You got this, Gaston!




Gaston has now become the storm with most ACE with ~4.2 (beating Earl's 4.07). Currently under some moderate-high shear but holding on well. Wind shear is expected to drop by tomorrow as well as it moving over SSTs of 28C+. Should become a beautiful major by the end of the week/early next week. :)
Also note that the dry air pocket is shrinking...I know we've had some storms before that were largely impacted by mid-level dry air, but that water vapor image looks like it's moistening up.

Anyone know if the storms get a benefit from mountainous terrain in this area based on the direction they are in relation to them? I remember something about Humberto (obviously in a much different location) in a case study awhile back.
Quoting 625. jlp09550:




Ah now THAT is a piece of crap system.

Good for the US if it stays that way.

But frustrating for the models to figure out.
Quoting 657. cheezemm:

Also note that the dry air pocket is shrinking...I know we've had some storms before that were largely impacted by mid-level dry air, but that water vapor image looks like it's moistening up.

Anyone know if the storms get a benefit from mountainous terrain in this area based on the direction they are in relation to them? I remember something about Humberto (obviously in a much different location) in a case study awhile back.


Yes I see that....and the water vapour trail headed into the Gulf. It feels very tropical here today in NOLA.
jokester hour? good chance quite a few folks came to an timely death on hispanola. 8 " of rain has been reported already dominican republic. twc
Link
Quoting 608. ihave27windows:

So, is it Hebert, A Bear, or Hebert, He Burt box?

My first husband, and my last name was Hebert, A Bear.


ABear Hebert
Quoting 656. Envoirment:



Gaston has now become the storm with most ACE with ~4.2 (beating Earl's 4.07). Currently under some moderate-high shear but holding on well. Wind shear is expected to drop by tomorrow as well as it moving over SSTs of 28C+. Should become a beautiful major by the end of the week/early next week. :)

I agree. I think Gaston could rapidly intensify when it gets out of the shear and into a moister environment with even warmer SSTs. The EURO and GFS have both been very aggressive with Gaston's intensity, and both show this becoming a category 4 hurricane.
When we would stay in NY we would watch Tex Antoine. I think he was on NBC



It took them forever to draw the states. So you people shouldn't complain about today's weather reports.


looking at RECON data they might actually find the center this time

pressures are falling

winds are still poor max near 25kts in small area so far
#658

If your best verbage is that, you are way far from fb here.

Lordy

Double triple dog flagged
Quoting 613. Heresince2005:

Next 12 hours are key.

"Rumors of my demise have been greatly exaggerated" - Twain

Don't look now but the shear has dropped markedly over 99L
Overnight will be interesting.
Looks like the "A" team is off till tonight.......it would be funny if something interesting happened right now.


On the RGB you can see low clouds around the low, but we need to see much more deep convection near this low level feature for things to progress.
it looks like it will be passing in between Little and Great Inagua as it moves W
Quoting 666. hydrus:

Overnight will be interesting.


Vigorous circulation remains. Much more conducive environment. I'd be nervous in the Keys.
You guys think that 99L spin will continue due West and Crash into Cuba? Or will it continue on the WNW trend it has been on since the start?
Quoting 661. PedleyCA:



ABear(Hebert)

Thank you!
🙃🙂🙃🙂
Quoting 669. wunderkidcayman:

it looks like it will be passing in between Little and Great Inagua as it moves W


If that is where the COC then somehow the clouds know about it....LOL
For those on here who continue to believe its dead and done , don't be fooled , Hurricane Katrina literally blew up over the central Bahamas and quickly intensified as it made its approach to SE Florida. I will say this from too many years of experience, if by tonight this system does not have a good convective burst then the chances of development will continue to decrease but for sure the possibility of a Hurricane Affecting South Florida is very very Low .
Quoting 663. Grothar:

When we would stay in NY we would watch Tex Antoine. I think he was on NBC



It took them forever to draw the states. So you people shouldn't complain about today's weather reports.





But Gro-

In your days there were only 13 colonies that became states; so it couldn't take that long. Sheeesh.
680. Tcwx2
99L looks awful now. Really would be a big win for the GFS if it pans out but I'm still not done with the EURO. Tonight should be interesting with 99L and may determine if the GFS or EURO is right.
The other thing that is affecting 99L that hasn't been talked about much is that the high mountains of Haiti are interfering with the overall circulation. The LLC may be tight but the overall circulation is very large. 99L has been trying to fire thunderstorms south of the LLC, but there is interference from the mountains. That should also improve as it pulls away from Haiti. I suspect that also played a role in how ragged the system is now. Does it survive? I would wait until tomorrow morning and see what it looks like after DMAX.
Quoting 655. CaneHunter031472:



Not very impressive.


Such a cute little swirl, just like a baby cobra! That little swirl has the potential to release more energy than all of the nuclear weapons ever created, so a little respect please...LOL
Quoting 669. wunderkidcayman:

it looks like it will be passing in between Little and Great Inagua as it moves W


Did someone say Iguana?
Hi Everyone.

I'm very worried as Cape Cod hasn't had rain all summer. It's gone North to Maine, or South to Rhode Island. The micro-climate here continues to divert the storms. We are in moderate drought conditions.

I hate to say this, but I'd take a tropical storm at this point. Just for the water.
bloody hell
NOAA RECON flew over the Satellite spin and there is nothing
although they have found lower pressure
That swirl just made landfall LOL. This thing is toast unless it develops back under the convection.
Quoting 681. charlottefl:

The other thing that is affecting 99L that hasn't been talked about much is that the high mountains of Haiti are interfering with the overall circulation. The LLC may be tight but the overall circulation is very large. 99L has been trying to fire thunderstorms south of the LLC, but there is interference from the mountains. That should also improve as it pulls away from Haiti. I suspect that also played a role in how ragged the system is now. Does it survive? I would wait until tomorrow morning and see what it looks like after DMAX.


In the last couple frames it looks as if the COC is almost headed due West. If it continues on that path would Cuba disrupt it the same way?
Quoting 659. nola70119:



Yes I see that....and the water vapour trail headed into the Gulf. It feels very tropical here today in NOLA.


The past few days here in SE Tennessee have been wickedly hot and humid upper 90's with dew point upper 70's. I lived in Florida for many years and and never felt these extreme conditions. The sun is brutal and the burn rate for exposed skin is 10 to 15 minutes with partly cloudy skies.
Everyone have a safe weather evening; exhausting the past several days between anxiety over 99L and anxiety at work. At this point, I am leaving the office and leaving the tracking of the progress of 99L to the NHC discussions and outlooks..................Yall Have a Great One and See Yall Tomorrow............... :)
Some models now crossing over Cuba.
Quoting 645. cheezemm:

You can already start to see the convection being pulled back in and starting to fire well ahead of the coc...I think dmax might start to cover her up. I think it's just a sign of the environment starting to improve. Really could go either way at the moment...


On satellite, I thought I was seeing fingers of convection shooting north off the coast of Haiti, heading towards the naked swirl.
Quoting 663. Grothar:

When we would stay in NY we would watch Tex Antoine. I think he was on NBC



It took them forever to draw the states. So you people shouldn't complain about today's weather reports.





There was no weather forecaster quite like Captain Sandy on WSAV. That was back when they tried to at least make the weather forecast enjoyable, not SERIOUS BUSINESS. Watching Captain Sandy as a kid was one of the things that peaked my interest in weather.

Quoting 681. charlottefl:

The other thing that is affecting 99L that hasn't been talked about much is that the high mountains of Haiti are interfering with the overall circulation. The LLC may be tight but the overall circulation is very large. 99L has been trying to fire thunderstorms south of the LLC, but there is interference from the mountains. That should also improve as it pulls away from Haiti. I suspect that also played a role in how ragged the system is now. Does it survive? I would wait until tomorrow morning and see what it looks like after DMAX.


Eastern Cuba is also mountainous. But there is a brief window between the 2 islands where the circulation can pull low-level moisture through the Windward Passage. It might give it a kick-start tonight, but Cuba will still be hindering development for a while.
Quoting 655. CaneHunter031472:



.
Note how the seabreeze over Hispaniola has made its way to the north coast. As evening progresses, moisture advected into the mid levels from the seabreeze collision will rush out into the Atlantic and moisten up 99l's environment. I've noticed weak tropical systems are often affected negatively by their proximity to seabreeze activity during the day. Lowering pressures outside of the immediate vorticity get the circulation hung up near the coast and hamper development. We will see another burst of confection *Convection* (similar I guess?) over the center tonight as the influence of Hispaniola and the seabreezes wanes. I'm expecting 99l to also move more north of its current heading a few hours after nightfall as well.
Quoting 687. DavidHOUTX:

That swirl just made landfall LOL. This thing is toast unless it develops back under the convection.


Think you have that backwards......
Quoting 657. cheezemm:

Also note that the dry air pocket is shrinking...I know we've had some storms before that were largely impacted by mid-level dry air, but that water vapor image looks like it's moistening up.

Anyone know if the storms get a benefit from mountainous terrain in this area based on the direction they are in relation to them? I remember something about Humberto (obviously in a much different location) in a case study awhile back.


Not in this area, several commenters have said that Hispaniola has detrimental effects even if the storm doesn't hit the island. As far as I know, only the Bay of Campeche and it's ring of mountains helps a storm to spin up really quickly, like Danielle did this year and Earl's brief re-strengthening.
Quoting 689. Enormousl:



In the last couple frames it looks as if the COC is almost headed due West. If it continues on that path would Cuba disrupt it the same way?


Hard to say, depending on how organized it is, how close it is to the coast, whether it's still struggling with dry air it's possible. I wouldn't really focus too much on that right now though. The real question is does it survive the next 12 hours as it transitions into a more favorable environment.
can someone explain DMAX DMIN to me? thank you :)




I had to step away from the computer screen for a couple of hours to keep my sanity. :)

99L has been a very tough cookie to watch, and most other swirls would have opened up by now and gone totally poof by now given the shearing conditions. With that said, if one observes the band to the northeast that is starting to build some convection, The convection associated with this band is coming around the large circulation, and is no longer being sheared apart. This may possibly be the first indication that 99L is finally reach a better environment. There will likely be a new convective burst this evening, much like yesterday, and this time it will get pulled over the LLC (swirl) in the SE Bahamas.
Quoting 679. rmbjoe1954:



But Gro-

In your days there were only 13 colonies that became states; so it couldn't take that long. Sheeesh.


I didn't say how old I was when I was watching this. But I can tell you I would watch it with my great-great-great-great grandchildren.
Omg I feel depressed when I look at the satellite pictures... Nothing good in sight. Nothing.
Visible Imagery

Click image for loop.

I will be blobbing 99L later tonight. It appears it will pull moisture from the south, before it builds from the north.

707. FOREX
Quoting 676. nola70119:



If that is where the COC then somehow the clouds know about it....LOL
If it slows down just a bit,you can clearly see the clouds from the south moving towards the coc.
Quoting 673. Enormousl:

You guys think that 99L spin will continue due West and Crash into Cuba? Or will it continue on the WNW trend it has been on since the start?


That's the $10 question. If it manages to break out without too much energy lost to Cuba, we'll have us a chase.
709. FOREX
If 99L stays on current course,it should interact with central and eastern Cuba.
Double Triple Dog Flag?
Say...
that's like, pretty extreme, man.
Something like that can follow you around the rest of your life.
Easy to see why 99L is headed West and why the models are responding the way they are. Look how tightly packed the streamlines are heading to the WSW immediately N of the swirl the NHC has been following. If 99L winds up in the NW Caribbean now that would be something !.

Also, 850 mb vort building off the SE coast of Jamaica where another swirl has been today. This has been a real Jekyl and Hyde system.


Looks like a circulation, needs thunderstorms.

But look what I have noticed, the thunderstorms on the islands are actually being grabbed by 99L and taking it into the system. I think this is the start of the organization, and it's smooth sailing from here.
ok finally something different from RECON
they have found a Wind shift although not a full shift to indicate a closed center

interestingly they find this shift E of where the Satellite suggest it is
Quoting 702. GetReal:





I had to step away from the computer screen for a couple of hours to keep my sanity. :)

99L has been a very tough cookie to watch, and most other swirls would have opened up by now and gone totally poof by now given the shearing conditions. With that said, if one observes the band to the northeast that is starting to build some convection, The convection associated with this band is coming around the large circulation, and is no longer being sheared apart. This may possibly be the first indication that 99L is finally reach a better environment. There will likely be a new convective burst this evening, much like yesterday, and this time it will get pulled over the LLC (swirl) in the SE Bahamas.


That is what I a seeing too.....its not much, but its more than it was. I'll be back tonight for sure
Quoting 703. Grothar:



I didn't say how old I was when I was watching this. But I can tell you I would watch it with my great-great-great-great grandchildren.


Gro!!!

Straight west on the Euro. Impressive. Strong ridging.

Quoting 713. wunderkidcayman:

ok finally something different from RECON
they have found a Wind shift although not a full shift to indicate a closed center

interestingly they find this shift E of where the Satellite suggest it is


Baby steps, but steps......rest up, the action should be tonight!
another thing to note is Katrina Developed 175 Miles to the Southeast of Nasau in the Bahamas and became a Hurricane almost at the SE Florida coast so all it takes is a short window
Good afternoon all. Had a busy day here, with no opportunity to check in, so I'm glad to see we haven't had any abrupt changes with 99L. Hopefully the system will have moved away from the islands hardest hit by Joaquin last October before it begins to get its act together.

Here in Nassau most people I talked to seem quite aware and vigilant without being freaked out. The biggest concern is that the ground is already a bit saturated around the island, which may contribute to flood potential in a wet slow-moving system. Hopefully the chances of hurricane force winds blowing across the archipelago will remain low.

I'm going to read back a bit, now that I have storm tracking snacks in hand .... I did stop at the grocery store :o).
Vort all heading to the West

Pre Katrina 2005


(sorry guys can't get this picture to post)

oh nos we may wake up and find a cat 5 in the AM
Its also slowing down.....
Quoting 704. CaribBoy:

Omg I feel depressed when I look at the satellite pictures... Nothing good in sight. Nothing.
Twave came off Africa today ....
Quoting 712. HurricaneAndre:But look what I have noticed, the thunderstorms on the islands are actually being grabbed by 99L and taking it into the system. I think this is the start of the organization, and it's smooth sailing from here.


The thunderstorms on the islands are being caused by the moist air that is being pulled north rising up over high terrain. If Hispaniola were not there, that moisture would be convecting over the center and the storm would be on. What remains to be seen is how much it can get spun up between the islands and if it can deal with Cuba.


Slowly rebuilding
I feel it in me
Growing in numbers
Growing in peace

People they come together
People they fall apart
No one can stop us now
'Cause we are all made of stars




Enough of these Katrina comparisons. 99L is an elongated LLC that has no chance of developing, and will more than likely keep heading W and die over Cuba.... The End
729. FOREX
If 99L gets Depression status, will NBC allow the Weather Channel to have live coverage of a possible Hurricane in South Florida this weekend, or are the Fat Guys going in them woods?
People on the blog seem to be indicating that 99L is in better conditions, but Bryan Norcross's blog and the NHC are saying bad conditions continue through tomorrow?
Quoting 728. Camerooski:

Enough of these Katrina comparisons. 99L is an elongated LLC that has no chance of developing, and will more than likely keep heading W and die over Cuba.... The End
in my 25 years of experience don't discount anything in the Bahamas coming towards South Florida , now the odds are lower but still there and I have seen countless of system develop from day to night just offshore, now a weak Tropical Storm here is not out of the question but I don't see a strong Tropical storm or Hurricane at all right now the atmospheric conditions are not favorable for that
Euro holds track at 12z, but downgrades the potency. Is this wave going to survive long enough to make it to the Keys is the big question.


never turn yer back on a CV spinner lad'......

Quoting 702. GetReal:





I had to step away from the computer screen for a couple of hours to keep my sanity. :)

99L has been a very tough cookie to watch, and most other swirls would have opened up by now and gone totally poof by now given the shearing conditions. With that said, if one observes the band to the northeast that is starting to build some convection, The convection associated with this band is coming around the large circulation, and is no longer being sheared apart. This may possibly be the first indication that 99L is finally reach a better environment. There will likely be a new convective burst this evening, much like yesterday, and this time it will get pulled over the LLC (swirl) in the SE Bahamas.
The swirly is just over Little Inagua, so now into Bahamian waters we go. That open area to the NW, up to Andros, is about 1/2 deep water [the eastern part] and the other half shallow [the southern portion of the Great Bahama Bank]. Water is quite warm there, and if 99L tracks NW as opposed to WNW, it should have about 200 miles of fairly decent TCHP before it gets into shallower water. Since it's such a large circulation right now, it also has the deeper water along the eastern edge of the islands that it can tap into.

Hopefully the upper air situation will mitigate the RI potential ....
Quoting 713. wunderkidcayman:

ok finally something different from RECON
they have found a Wind shift although not a full shift to indicate a closed center

interestingly they find this shift E of where the Satellite suggest it is


A wind shift from SE to NE is not unusual for a wave axis. This will not be of significance unless they find Westerly winds to go with it on legs to the South and West of there.
Quoting 701. earthisanocean:

can someone explain DMAX DMIN to me? thank you :)


basically to put it in very easy laymans terms

DMax peaks at sunrise during DMax period + in convective activity
DMin peaks at Sunset during DMin period - in convective activity
Quoting 728. Camerooski:

Enough of these Katrina comparisons. 99L is an elongated LLC that has no chance of developing, and will more than likely keep heading W and die over Cuba.... The End

I hope you're right I would like nothing more...........
Yeah, Gaston, lol.

Quoting 722. thetwilightzone:

oh nos we may wake up and find a cat 5 in the AM
Quoting 730. Sharkicane:

People on the blog seem to be indicating that 99L is in better conditions, but Bryan Norcross's blog and the NHC are saying bad conditions continue through tomorrow?


It's not in ideal conditions, but they are improving. Should continue to improve through late tomorrow into Saturday..
99L still has a chance.

But Kori may have just booked a flight to south Florida to chase some rain showers lmao.
its looks like to me the little vortex you all are watching is a small part of the over all circulation forming
What's also interesting is alot of convection is developing close to Andros island and across the Bahamas lets see if this helps 99L Tonight .
Hate to speak in absolutes because these systems never cease to surprise me, but if 99L does not cover itself up with some convection tonight I believe it will be game over. That's fine with me.
Perhaps Bonnie 2010 is a better Analog for 99L
I have been lurking on and off today....and I can seriously see this in my head....

Sheldon Cooper (negative nancy) - I don't care what the NHC says, there is no way this thing is going to turn into anything but a rain event if it even makes it that far....

Penny...so you think less than one in a million then huh?

Howard Wolowitz - so one in a million huh.....THERE'S A CHANCE THEN!!!!!!!!
Quoting 744. HaoleboySurfEC:

Hate to speak in absolutes because these systems never cease to surprise me, but if 99L does not cover itself up with some convection tonight I believe it will be game over. That's fine with me.
agree but maybe a larger window of 16 hours, after that no hope.
748. A4Guy
If you take a look at a wide view, you can see that 99L really has a very large overall circulation. It's this size that has been an inhibiting factor (on top of shear and dry air). If the LLC does slow down, it may allow some of that larger circulation to catch up and start wrapping in.
Quoting 699. Astrometeor:



Not in this area, several commenters have said that Hispaniola has detrimental effects even if the storm doesn't hit the island. As far as I know, only the Bay of Campeche and it's ring of mountains helps a storm to spin up really quickly, like Danielle did this year and Earl's brief re-strengthening.


Thank you...just trying to learn as we go. I've been on the blog for a long, long time, but have tried to listen quietly in the background. I'm landlocked and just starting to learn hodographs (spell?) and soundings for severe weather. When I can eventually retire, I'll be close to the coast, so it pays to learn the weather in the area.
Quoting 728. Camerooski:

Enough of these Katrina comparisons. 99L is an elongated LLC that has no chance of developing, and will more than likely keep heading W and die over Cuba.... The End

That's a bold statement. It isn't anywhere near ideal conditions right now but much could change overnight and by Saturday I think people will be able to submit the obit. Or maybe not.
Quoting 720. kmanislander:

Vort all heading to the West




hey Kman that's interesting Vort is increasing SE of Jamaica


Quoting 735. kmanislander:



A wind shift from SE to NE is not unusual for a wave axis. This will not be of significance unless they find Westerly winds to go with it on legs to the South and West of there.


yes true indeed but it is a bit of a change from what RECON in the past missions
Quoting 722. thetwilightzone:

oh nos we may wake up and find a cat 5 in the AM

delusional
AF303 Mission #04 into SURV
Type: Unknown | Status: En Route

As of 21:08 UTC Aug 25, 2016:
Aircraft Position: 27.00°N 72.95°W
Bearing: 117° at 245 kt
Altitude: 10017 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 6 kt at 145°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A





to me this thing looks more like rita minus the major hurricane status, if you remember how it formed, its not unlike this one.
Broward County Schools ordered all Hurricane Shutter Closed. Maybe this thing can come together once shear is lower as it moves along
Quoting 746. tiggeriffic:

I have been lurking on and off today....and I can seriously see this in my head....

Sheldon Cooper (negative nancy) - I don't care what the NHC says, there is no way this thing is going to turn into anything but a rain event if it even makes it that far....

Penny...so you think less than one in a million then huh?

Howard Wolowitz - so one in a million huh.....THERE'S A CHANCE THEN!!!!!!!!


You should be banned for referencing such an awful show.
Quoting 728. Camerooski:

Enough of these Katrina comparisons. 99L is an elongated LLC that has no chance of developing, and will more than likely keep heading W and die over Cuba.... The End


I half agree with you. The Katrina comparisons are getting a bit much.

As for it having no chance of developing, I find that to be reckless, but its your opinion.
Quoting 745. washingtonian115:

Perhaps Bonnie 2010 is a better Analog for 99L

LMAO I remember that thing. I think the 4 leaves that fell off my tree in the backyard was the extent of the damage.
i wounder how this blog would do if 99L really dos blow up in the gulf and be come a cat 4 or 5 ?


we would be going too the downcaster we told you so we told you so so 99L is not done yet
Quoting 746. tiggeriffic:

I have been lurking on and off today....and I can seriously see this in my head....

Sheldon Cooper (negative nancy) - I don't care what the NHC says, there is no way this thing is going to turn into anything but a rain event if it even makes it that far....

Penny...so you think less than one in a million then huh?

Howard Wolowitz - so one in a million huh.....THERE'S A CHANCE THEN!!!!!!!!


Saw a 31.36 rain event 12 days ago.

Not one iota of it will go toward the 2016 ACE.

Imagine DAT?

Louisiana flooding range shown in new interactive map.





Quoting 721. charlottefl:

Pre Katrina 2005


(sorry guys can't get this picture to post)



This one? Imgur posts seems to work when the URL has the i.imgur instead of just the imgur.
it sure looks like the center is heading for the straights,regardless of development,thats great....
if you look at rita it struggled the whole time, it gained some convection but continued to struggle with shear and dry air, it only developed after there shear diminished after puerto rico and Hispaniola. ITs not unlike this, traveled between the florida keys and cuba but was more north than this system was. I don't think it will explode to a cat 5 or even a major hurricane but just for some historical context to a storm that acted like 99.
Is the recon headed home already? They seem to be climbing.

Quoting 745. washingtonian115:

Perhaps Bonnie 2010 is a better Analog for 99L




Funny.. 48 hours ago Katrina was the analog people were suggesting.


Florida wishcasters will be out in droves now.
Minisculus blobbing over the NW DR should be noted. It won't take much to begin wrapping around. If the pressure drops just a little, we might see a little action tonight and tomorrow.

Quoting 722. thetwilightzone:

oh nos we may wake up and find a cat 5 in the AM
Better not ... that would be headed my way!
Quoting 730. Sharkicane:

People on the blog seem to be indicating that 99L is in better conditions, but Bryan Norcross's blog and the NHC are saying bad conditions continue through tomorrow?
Both are correct. Storm is pulling away from shear and proximity to greater Antilles, and into higher TCHP waters, so better. Storm is still experiencing shear and downdrafts from interaction with Islands, so bad.
A combination of land interaction, dry air, and wind shear has taken a toll on 99L.

so many times have we seen systems like this have their circulations run right into mountains.

If 99L does not change course, this will go down as one of the most disappointing invests of all time.

Quoting 754. masiello3:

to me this thing looks more like rita minus the major hurricane status, if you remember how it formed, its not unlike this one.

I agree very similar as Rita's wave was written off as a wave. She was at one time 180 mph in the Gulf. Never let your guard down especially this time of year.
Quoting 767. Grothar:

Minisculus blobbing over the NW DR should be noted. It won't take much to begin wrapping around. If the pressure drops just a little, we might see a little action tonight and tomorrow.




thanks Gro....there are a handful of people I watch for what they say on here...the rest... I read it and try to decipher if they actually know what they are talking about by comparing it to what I have learned over the years.... the rest... I throw it in the compost heap along with the chicken droppings....
Quoting 762. LargoFl:

it sure looks like the center is heading for the straights,regardless of development,thats great....

I saw that as well. If it squeezes through there it could pick up a head of steam and be a problem down the road.
What happened to the donut hole eyes in the ATL basin? Was a time when it was so common.
Quoting 725. BahaHurican:

Twave came off Africa today ....



Hopefully no more nightmare like 99L
this could vary well be a start of a grate night for 99L



t- storms are froming too the S of 99L if wind shear can drop more so the T storm can move N then we could see 99L cover here self




so whats see how 99L dos tonight there no why in heck am i giving up on 99L yet this could really blow up in to a vary power full storm once it movs across cuba and enter the NW Caribbean sea where the highets TCHP is at this could really go RI
Quoting 761. BahaHurican:

This one? Imgur posts seems to work when the URL has the i.imgur instead of just the imgur.


I'm surprised, they do look pretty similar. Though Katrina formed about 100 miles or so north, moving NW. 99L is about 5 hours from oblivion when it hits Cuba.

I was outside working and came back to check in, and on the vis image I see a small rotation on the SE tip of Hispaniola O_o Don't know if that's the MLC or something else. Haven't checked the vorticity maps to see yet.

Hi, folks. Just joining for tonight as I was out in our country garden to water the plants ahead of the summit of our current heatwave in Germany with temps in the 90ies F. Couldn't read all the 800 posts earlier (just the last 150). You already saw the strange run from UKMET 12z?

With it on the cusp of escaping the wind shear I think though it will be something that begins to intensify very close to the last few moments of passing south Florida. I don't think it will make it as far north as Miami. I still think the main portion of the Peninsula will not be tracked up and it would land at least by the western Panhandle. (Though on visible it looks like it's about to face plant into Cuba I think it will be able to skirt it at the worst ever so slightly.)

Who knows, maybe some of those thunderstorms that just started firing in northern Haiti will be the start of a pull of moisture that can wrap around to fix the damage, especially when it has that gap across before Cuba gets in the way. (these islands could not have been formed in a worse sequence for development)
Quoting 772. tiggeriffic:



thanks Gro....there are a handful of people I watch for what they say on here...the rest... I read it and try to decipher if they actually know what they are talking about by comparing it to what I have learned over the years.... the rest... I throw it in the compost heap along with the chicken droppings....


It would be wonderful for occasional lurkers like myself for someone to post the usernames of people who know what they are talking about.

IMO people like myself who don't know anything should be asking questions and not posting opinions.
If 99L makes a landfall in Cuba it will at least miss the mountains to the east, but any land interaction will not be helpful with a system that is this weak. 99L has been moving mostly westerly at about 21-22 degrees north Lat.
Quoting 758. MiamiHurricanes09:

LMAO I remember that thing. I think the 4 leaves that fell off my tree in the backyard was the extent of the damage.
I heard that it was more so a tropical fart than a tropical storm.
Quoting 706. Grothar:

I will be blobbing 99L later tonight. It appears it will pull moisture from the south, before it builds from the north.



Gro, I could suggest some blob names, but at this point in time, I would probably be banned permenantly from the blog if I incorporated some of the names I have called her over the last 24-48 hours! Do wish our naked Lady Godiva swirl would put some clothes on (convection) or ride off into the sunset and we can focus on the next blob. Just hoping she does not do the RI poof and surprise all of us in S Florida with a bigun on our doorstep. Just have tomorrow to decide about shutters and folks in the Bahamas are running out of time. Scary thoughts.
I wonder if it is possible that this system goes towards western Cuba and the straits, but does all of its intensifying after turning north in the Gulf

Still possible to get a storm out of this even if it goes across Cuba.
Quoting 776. thetwilightzone:

this could vary well be a start of a grate night for 99L



t- storms are froming too the S of 99L if wind shear can drop more so the T storm can move N then we could see 99L cover here self




so whats see how 99L dos tonight there no why in heck am i giving up on 99L yet this could really blow up in to a vary power full storm once it movs across cuba and enter the NW Caribbean sea where the highets TCHP is at this could really go RI


You're late. I already posted that.
Quoting 780. Enormousl:



It would be wonderful for occasional lurkers like myself for someone to post the usernames of people who know what they are talking about.

IMO people like myself who don't know anything should be asking questions and not posting opinions.
That's your opinion...lol
the supposed LLC has definitely slowed down. interested to see the next pass by the recon, see if theres a western wind.
Quoting 761. BahaHurican:

This one? Imgur posts seems to work when the URL has the i.imgur instead of just the imgur.


Yeah thanks Baha. And just as a disclaimer no I don't foresee this being exactly like Katrina. My whole point was pre Katrina was a mess and this is too. Best not to write it off until there's no spin left.
very heavy rains starting for s. florida 8- 10 " for the event?
Quoting 769. GTstormChaserCaleb:

A combination of land interaction, dry air, and wind shear has taken a toll on 99L.




Dry air, land interaction, high wind shear, a large amount of atmosphere needing to be spun up, and lets not forget the MJO have all been working against this system. This system absolutely sounds like it should not be alive anymore (let alone ever somewhat developing in the first place), as the only plus going for it right now is warm water.

Nearing the peak of hurricane season, and it sounds like the Atlantic is generally under very unfavorable conditions.
Quoting 752. Camille33:


delusional
Joking
Quoting 758. MiamiHurricanes09:

LMAO I remember that thing. I think the 4 leaves that fell off my tree in the backyard was the extent of the damage.
Even I thought that Bonnie was just a nuisance of a storm at the time .... lol ....

Quoting 786. SoFLRoofguy:

That's your opinion...lol



Hence why i started the sentence with IMO = In my opinion........................................... ....................

AF303 Mission #04 into SURV
Type: Unknown | Status: En Route

As of 21:28 UTC Aug 25, 2016:
Aircraft Position: 27.08°N 71.00°W
Bearing: 0° at 360 kt


Altitude: 10020 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 11 kt at 108°


Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A



Quoting 784. Hurricanes101:

I wonder if it is possible that this system goes towards western Cuba and the straits, but does all of its intensifying after turning north in the Gulf

Still possible to get a storm out of this even if it goes across Cuba.


thats what am thinking has well 99L could still turn in too a vary power full hurricane but not in tell after it gets too the gulf
Quoting 790. AldreteMichael:



Dry air, land interaction, high wind shear, a large amount of atmosphere needing to be spun up, and lets not forget the MJO have all been working against this system. This system absolutely sounds like it should not be alive anymore (let alone ever somewhat developing in the first place), as the only plus going for it right now is warm water.

Nearing the peak of hurricane season, and it sounds like the Atlantic is generally under very unfavorable conditions.


MJO has very little impact at this time of the hurricane season
Quoting 780. Enormousl:



It would be wonderful for occasional lurkers like myself for someone to post the usernames of people who know what they are talking about.

IMO people like myself who don't know anything should be asking questions and not posting opinions.


Check your WU mail
Considering analogous storms past, I'm reminded of the "Great Labor Day" storm of 1935. While it was a much smaller circulation, it followed a
similar track to 99L, and by all accounts was of negligible intensity In the same general area. There aren't many records concerning the parameters in 1935, but many think that storm, like Andrew, intensified dramatically in the 12 hours before landfall. i hope we can safely assume that 99 is too large a circulation to intensify to such a degree. However with the way our climate is changing, who's to say? I think most of us here in central Florida can breath a little easier, from Broward county through Key West, to the Texas coast, please be prepared to act.
Another not quite analog but... Decreasing shear and forward speed... plenty of warm water... Let's hope not!!!

Quoting 785. Grothar:



You're late. I already posted that.


i saw it 1st sorry you need too get in line my dear
It does seem like the swirl is outrunning the shear. It was supposed to gain an anti cyclone at some time in the future. It is also to slow forward speed. Might still surprise.
I see the status on NOAA3 is now "Finished".

Is there a reason they didn't fly back through to check the southern end of it for any westerly winds?
Quoting 792. Enormousl:




Hence why i started the sentence with IMO = In my opinion........................................... ....................
I was just trying infuse a little wit...things have been a little gloomy in here this afternoon...
Quoting 770. Hurricanes101:

so many times have we seen systems like this have their circulations run right into mountains.

If 99L does not change course, this will go down as one of the most disappointing invests of all time.




Definitely. I hate sheared systems. The rain always goes where it is not forecast to go :/

Shear actually kept 99L's rain south of the northernmost Leeward islands.

Depressing.

Same story happened with Erika last year.

I want a well organized cyclone!!
Quoting 791. BahaHurican:

Joking
Even I thought that Bonnie was just a nuisance of a storm at the time .... lol ....




Actually have a good story about Bonnie. Although it didn't do much we did get some wind on the West Coast. I happened to be in the field for work that day. I drove through a neighborhood and less than 5 minutes later drove back the same way I came. In that time a large Oak tree branch the size of my car had fallen in the roadway on the side I had just driven on. Timing is everything!
Quoting 781. Sfloridacat5:




Looks like it could survive a crossing through central Cuba as long as it avoided the Escambray Mountain range. A Caribbean system would significantly change the ballgame. The TCHP values are off the charts!
Imo only poster better than me is tropical tidbits. I know my stuff.
OMG recon still flying into this....
Quoting 772. tiggeriffic:



thanks Gro....there are a handful of people I watch for what they say on here...the rest... I read it and try to decipher if they actually know what they are talking about by comparing it to what I have learned over the years.... the rest... I throw it in the compost heap along with the chicken droppings....


Please be kind! To which category would you place me? :)
Quoting 770. Hurricanes101:

so many times have we seen systems like this have their circulations run right into mountains.

If 99L does not change course, this will go down as one of the most disappointing invests of all time.




My life, family, and property are safe. So very disappointing!
Quoting 803. CaribBoy:



Definitely. I hate sheared systems. The rains always go where it is not forecast to go :/

Shear actually kept 99L's rain south of the northernmost Leeward islands.

Depressing.

Same story happened with Erika last year.

I want a well organized cyclone!!


Move to the West Pacific then lol
Quoting 797. Look2thesky:

Considering analogous storms past, I'm reminded of the "Great Labor Day" storm of 1935. While it was a much smaller circulation, it followed a
similar track to 99L, and by all accounts was of negligible intensity In the same general area. There aren't many records concerning the parameters in 1935, but many think that storm, like Andrew, intensified dramatically in the 12 hours before landfall. i hope we can safely assume that 99 is too large a circulation to intensify to such a degree. However with the way our climate is changing, who's to say? I think most of us here in central Florida can breath a little easier, from Broward county through Key West, to the Texas coast, please be prepared to act.


Funny... We were on the same page at that moment(Post #797 & 798).
Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Click image for loop.

Quoting 808. Grothar:



Please be kind! To which category would you place me? :)


Gro...I have been around for better than 10 years....joined up in 07 to be able to ask and comment... you sir... are the bomb diggity
Quoting 746. tiggeriffic:

I have been lurking on and off today....and I can seriously see this in my head....

Sheldon Cooper (negative nancy) - I don't care what the NHC says, there is no way this thing is going to turn into anything but a rain event if it even makes it that far....

Penny...so you think less than one in a million then huh?

Howard Wolowitz - so one in a million huh.....THERE'S A CHANCE THEN!!!!!!!!

Hahaha! Nearly choked on my ice tea! Great post.
well that was unimpressive

NOAA3 Unassigned Mission
Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: Finished
WP-3D "Miss Piggy"

one pass and that was it
816. MahFL
I don't think the shear map is correct, there is clearly shear much further west than depicted.
I would expect the number to drop again at 8pm

30-50 at the most
Dinner, see you all later. I wonder what kind of herring we're having tonight :)
Quoting 815. wunderkidcayman:

well that was unimpressive

NOAA3 Unassigned Mission
Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: Finished
WP-3D "Miss Piggy"

one pass and that was it


they said oh whats make a pass around and see what they find then they said YAWN nothing march here what past every one a beer and call it a day and turn around and headed home
Anyone ever notice that in the last 5 years or so, the exact opposite of what everyone says, is what eventually happens? Just sayin'.....

Edited to add - "for the Atlantic anyway"
HurricaneTracker App @hurrtrackerapp
Seems folks are bummed about Invest #99L, but what happened today is BEST case scenario! Still have to watch in the gulf if it survives.

39m
Quoting 812. Patrap:

Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Click image for loop.


its all good could not have worked out any better so far anyway
thundering and raining here another long day is done
IMO, the coc will start to see tstorms activity near the center.... however swirl number 2 could take over and the storm may "reform" Remember this storm performs better at night! Tonight I'll be watching...
Quoting 820. cynyc2:

Anyone ever notice that in the last 5 years or so, the exact opposite of what everyone says, is what eventually happens? Just sayin'.....
well we have to say what we see and then as it comes along then we tell u what it is
Quoting 770. Hurricanes101:

so many times have we seen systems like this have their circulations run right into mountains.

If 99L does not change course, this will go down as one of the most disappointing invests of all time.


I dunno ... I've had a lot of fun watching this, and no f5 keys have been sacrificed. I certainly will experience zero disappointment from being missed by a hurricane this weekend ....
Quoting 778. barbamz:

Hi, folks. Just joining for tonight as I was out in our country garden to water the plants ahead of the summit of our current heatwave in Germany with temps in the 90ies F. Couldn't read all the 800 posts earlier (just the last 150). You already saw the strange run from UKMET 12z?

Hey, barb, hadn't seen that .... looks like it's picking up on that vorticity south of JA that kman was pointing out earlier ....
Quoting 788. charlottefl:



Yeah thanks Baha. And just as a disclaimer no I don't foresee this being exactly like Katrina. My whole point was pre Katrina was a mess and this is too. Best not to write it off until there's no spin left.
I saw your point as soon as I looked at the image... I think we may have false impressions sometimes of what pre-storm waves should look like.
826. FOREX
Josh Morgeman seems to be giving 99L zero chance of development on his twitter.
827. MahFL
If this does occur in 12 hours time then 99L will have a better chance, neutral MJO :

Local news must be hyping up the storm (99L) because my mom called and asked me if I would come over and roll down the storm shutters on their house in Fort Myers Fl.

I told her to just wait for now. That the storm hasn't even formed yet, and it might not do much in our area.

Quoting 817. Hurricanes101:

I would expect the number to drop again at 8pm

30-50 at the most


Nice to have finally gotten back to the top of the forecast world...as Americans that is. GFS showed that stupid European who's boss.
Quoting 772. tiggeriffic:



thanks Gro....there are a handful of people I watch for what they say on here...the rest... I read it and try to decipher if they actually know what they are talking about by comparing it to what I have learned over the years.... the rest... I throw it in the compost heap along with the chicken droppings....
I wonder where I fall on that list :)
Quoting 828. Sfloridacat5:

Local news must by hyping up the storm (99L) because my mom called and asked me if I would come over and roll down the storm shutters on their house in Fort Myers Fl.

I told her to just wait for now. That the storm hasn't even formed yet, and it might not do much in our area.



Broward county schools closed all there shutters today
IMO, the coc will start to see tstorms activity near the center.... however swirl number 2 could take over and the storm may "reform" Remember this storm performs better at night! Tonight I'll be watching...
On the bright side, Gaston is currently experiencing the worst of the forecast shear, and the environment should begin improving tomorrow. There is still great agreement the cyclone should recurve as a major hurricane in a few days.

Quoting 829. StormJunkie:



Nice to have finally gotten back to the top of the forecast world...as Americans that is. GFS showed that stupid European who's boss.


You are a professional from what I remember. I would think claiming victory for one model over another before the final chapter has been written would be deemed unprofessional.

Just my opinion of course
Quoting 831. nygiants:


Broward county schools closed all there shutters today


That's a little extreme don't ya think?
Quoting 830. washingtonian115:

I wonder where I fall on that list :)


We are cool Wash lol.... you know the type and ones I am referring to for compost
Quoting 770. Hurricanes101:

If 99L does not change course, this will go down as one of the most disappointing invests of all time.

The chance of widespread death, destruction and misery is decreasing and you find that disappointing? That's a pretty miserable thing to say.
we need to watch that are over jamaica
Quoting 829. StormJunkie:



Nice to have finally gotten back to the top of the forecast world...as Americans that is. GFS showed that stupid European who's boss.


I get the sentiment....people been GFS bashing for days.... kind of gives you a TA DA moment eh? BTW how the flip flop are ya SJ
This is one username I do not hesitate to provide: NHC

Quoting 780. Enormousl:



It would be wonderful for occasional lurkers like myself for someone to post the usernames of people who know what they are talking about.

IMO people like myself who don't know anything should be asking questions and not posting opinions.
Quoting 837. UrcaDeLima:


The chance of widespread death, destruction and misery is decreasing and you find that disappointing? That's a pretty miserable thing to say.


Thanks for taking my comment completely out of context. Yup, that is it, I want everyone to lose their homes. Get real.
the spin has now passed between little and great Inagua moving W about 270-265

Link

Quoting 781. Sfloridacat5:

If 99L makes a landfall in Cuba it will at least miss the mountains to the east, but any land interaction will not be helpful with a system that is this weak. 99L has been moving mostly westerly at about 21-22 degrees north Lat.

Quoting 784. Hurricanes101:

I wonder if it is possible that this system goes towards western Cuba and the straits, but does all of its intensifying after turning north in the Gulf

Still possible to get a storm out of this even if it goes across Cuba.
Quoting 805. VegasRain:



Looks like it could survive a crossing through central Cuba as long as it avoided the Escambray Mountain range. A Caribbean system would significantly change the ballgame. The TCHP values are off the charts!



if 99L crosses Cuba into NW Caribbean that will change the ball game dramatically

Quoting 813. tiggeriffic:



Gro...I have been around for better than 10 years....joined up in 07 to be able to ask and comment... you sir... are the bomb diggity
Wonder how many pple actually understand what that is .... lol ....
Quoting 806. Camille33:

Imo only poster better than me is tropical tidbits. I know my stuff.


haha you mean Levi?
Yup, that spin on the SE tip of Hispaniola is the MCL with 99L. It's possible if the LLC crashes and burns on Cuba's coast the remnants of the MLC could try to develop.

Quoting 834. Hurricanes101:



You are a professional from what I remember. I would think claiming victory for one model over another before the final chapter has been written would be deemed unprofessional.

Just my opinion of course


Thanks for the compliment, but I'm far from a professional, at least in this field. Just an avid hobbyist. Just injecting a little humor. I figure the GFS must have taken note of the summer Olympic performance by the US and decided it needed to try harder.


a naked swirl is a good thing really no
Quoting 843. BahaHurican:

Wonder how many pple actually understand what that is .... lol ....


lol ... Baha.... those that do are the ones that matter roflmbo....
Quoting 836. tiggeriffic:



We are cool Wash lol.... you know the type and ones I am referring to for compost


I'm good Tigger. How's life on your side of town?


forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
355 PM CDT Thursday Aug 25 2016

Short term...

The fast moving upper level vort lobe passing through the region
today will quickly push to the west as it rotates around the
periphery of a strong upper level ridge parked across the
Tennessee Valley. Before this upper level energy clears the area,
lingering scattered convection can be expected over the western
half of the forecast area through the evening hours. Conditions
should quickly clear out later tonight as increased negative
vorticity advection and subsidence develops in the mid and upper
levels. A surge of drier air in the mid-levels is also expected
which should effectively bring an end to the rainfall as precipitable water values
drop to 1.5 inches or less. This much more stable airmass will
linger over the area tomorrow, and have much lower rain chances of
10 to 30 percent in place. Rain looks to be most likely along the
coast where some seabreeze interactions could spark off isolated
showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will also be a bit warmer
tomorrow due to the subsidence aloft and lack of convection. Highs
should easily climb into the lower to middle 90s.

Another lobe of increased upper level vorticity and overall lift
will overspread the region on Saturday and remain in place on
Sunday. This fairly vigorous upper level trough will also bring a
pool of deeper tropical moisture into the region. Precipitable
water values should rise from 1.5 inches to around 2.25 inches by
Saturday afternoon as this deep tropical moisture advects in.
Overall instability will also increase, and expect to see
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms develop from late
morning through the evening hours. There should be a gradient in
the moisture profile with higher atmospheric moisture content
south of I-10 and lower amounts over the northern zones through
the weekend. Have likely pop of around 60 percent south of I-10,
and only chance pop of 20 to 30 percent for the northern zones.
Temperatures will generally cool back into the upper 80s and lower
90s as this system moves through the convective coverage
increases.

Long term...

Heading into next week, both the European model (ecmwf) and the GFS indicate that
any potential tropical system should remain east of the region.
Given this agreement, have opted to stick with a drier forecast as
strong mid and upper level ridging develops across the lower
Mississippi Valley. The strong ridging aloft should warm and dry
out the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere resulting in lower
instability and lower atmospheric moisture content. At this time,
have went with pop of 20 to 30 percent for each day next week.
Temperatures should also climb due to the sinking air aloft and
increase in solar insolation with highs easily climbing into the
middle 90s each day. Fortunately, with dewpoints somewhat lower
heat index values should remain below advisory levels.
Quoting 846. StormJunkie:



Thanks for the compliment, but I'm far from a professional, at least in this field. Just an avid hobbyist. Just injecting a little humor. I figure the GFS must have taken note of the summer Olympic performance by the US and decided it needed to try harder.


Hope it does not decide to rob any stores
Quoting 849. StormJunkie:



I'm good Tigger. How's life on your side of town?


verticle man.... that is about all I can say lol
18z GFS puts a 1010 mb low in the south central GOM at 90 hours.
Quoting 842. wunderkidcayman:

the spin has now passed between little and great Inagua moving W about 270-265

Link



if 99L crosses Cuba into NW Caribbean that will change the ball game dramatically


Yes it would..
Quoting 722. thetwilightzone:

oh nos we may wake up and find a cat 5 in the AM


Happened to me a with Wilma. But 99L is NO Wilma! If that circulation slides over Cuba, chances go down a lot. Unless it forms a new COC under it's convection, which seems unlikely. And Cam I agree, please drop the Katrina comments. They are NOTHING alike. Mentioning that name can bring back bad memories for a lot of people on this blog and well as scare a passerby. Hope everyone has an enjoyable evening, I will be dying in the Tampa sun moving after work :-(
either the blog is frozen or everyone has taken a break for dinner.....
Looks like the 18Z GFS is going to take 99L to Texas.
Quoting 835. DavidHOUTX:



That's a little extreme don't ya think?

Idk they called NWS and then ordered all the schools to..wasn't my decision.
Quoting 847. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



a naked swirl is a good thing really no
Look at the big picture with this .... about 2/3 to 3/4 of the "naked swirl" is currently surrounded by Tstorms .... NW side is lacking. Granted, it looks more like a STS than a TS, but still ...
Maybe 99L is trying to build the storms around the eye first, rather than clearing one out later ....
LOL
Quoting 859. nygiants:


Idk they called NWS and then ordered all the schools to..wasn't my decision.


could it have been so that all of them were done by tomorrow in case the thing hit over the weekend no one would have to go back out to do it on days they are closed?????

Last few frames on vis reveal what appears to be a few tcu towers beginning to pop directly around the center. Possibly finally getting underway.
I can't remember if it was the GFS or the Euro that originally took 99L to Texas?
~anticipation~~antici pay yay tion is making me wait~~making me way yay yay yay yay tion~~
Sorry Washi, the wave expected to emerge off the coast of Africa might actually become Hermine, which means Ian would have to wait. :/

Quoting 862. Jbailey0531:



Last few frames reveal what appears to be a few tcu towers beginning to pop directly around the center.


thats a start
Quoting 847. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



a naked swirl is a good thing really no


Does the last couple of frames of the visible look like the 'naked swirl' is pulling all those clouds south and southeast towards it? I am still worried about it and dont want it pulling a night time revival and I do not know enough to interpret what I am seeing very well. Thanks.
This is the most excruciating invest, is it going to do ANYTHING????....

Based on the amount of attention this is getting. I wonder if in the future when a major is approaching FL, is society going to implode or something??
Quoting 831. nygiants:


Broward county schools closed all there shutters today


I teach in Broward County.....have been for 32 years. Nobody told me to close any shutters or do anything out of the ordinary except monitor the weather.....maybe a little hype there.
many folks wu-mail icons are not working

don't forget to check your wu-mail, folks
It's hard to believe 99L would cross the entire GOM and not strengthen, but we've seen it happen before.
Quoting 870. aquak9:

many folks wu-mail icons are not working

don't forget to check your wu-mail, folks


yeah... I thought they changed it or something.... absolutely do not like it like it is right now.... UGH
Quoting 860. BahaHurican:

Look at the big picture with this .... about 2/3 to 3/4 of the "naked swirl" is currently surrounded by Tstorms .... NW side is lacking. Granted, it looks more like a STS than a TS, but still ...
Maybe 99L is trying to build the storms around the eye first, rather than clearing one out later ....
LOL


Here's a question. The more I like at that loop, the more I wonder if that front running swirl into Cuba while more vorticity develops further back east towards convection that is north of Cuba?
Quoting 855. RavensFan:



Happened to me a with Wilma. But 99L is NO Wilma! If that circulation slides over Cuba, chances go down a lot. Unless it forms a new COC under it's convection, which seems unlikely. And Cam I agree, please drop the Katrina comments. They are NOTHING alike. Mentioning that name can bring back bad memories for a lot of people on this blog and well as scare a passerby. Hope everyone has an enjoyable evening, I will be dying in the Tampa sun moving after work :-(
Actually, in this part of the Atlantic, 99l is rather a lot like Katrina. The models that are seeing development in the central Bahamas are suggesting it will happen quite near to where Katrina was first declared TD 12 and then upgraded to TS .... Today IIRC, is the anniversary of Katrina passing through the Bahamas and into S Florida. The commenters are reminding the naysayers that a disheveled looking system at this point doesn't guarantee zero impacts, and that furthermore such a system can quickly organize from depression to hurricane if conditions allow. Hurricane Noel 2007 is another example.
As posted elsewhere, such systems can also fizzle, and have done so in the past. But dismissing a cogent example because it makes you feel uncomfortable is not good science.

YMMV
Yesterday morning was her finest. She's old and tired now, and needs to be put to sleep. Goodnight sweet girl.
Earlier



As I mentioned two hours ago, pretty obvious from visible that 99l has broke free of the shear. Next 12 hours extremely important. I WOULD ?E NERVOUS anywhere from Key West to Naples.
I wonder why the convection is overrunning in the NE. Seems to disconnect from the low in the last few frames as the low dips to the WSW. I would post an image but there are several down the line a bit. Saving blog space :-)
Quoting 867. bradbarry27:



Does the last couple of frames of the visible look like the 'naked swirl' is pulling all those clouds south and southeast towards it? I am still worried about it and dont want it pulling a night time revival and I do not know enough to interpret what I am seeing very well. Thanks.


Just watched Levi's new video. He said that the naked swirl will die off and a new circulation will form further north. Path through the Fl straights and into the Easten GOM is still on track. Only weaker.
If nothing comes of 99L, it will have been a bigger troll than Erika. At least Erika became a named storm that we can look back and talk crap about. 99L would forever be known as 99L, and eventually be forgotten.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Watch for Jog north as convection grows later tonight.
Does anyone know if the next model runs will have HH environmental data included? Good to see some old names from 2004-2005!
I feel so  low because of this Low
18Z GFS freaks out and the low starts jumping around at 150 hours. Can't believe anything past that with the low hopping hundreds of miles in a few hours.
I have been watching the satellite imagery throughout the day on 99L, a naked swirl moving between W-WNW all day long, also noticed that it was cruising along around 20mph earlier, and has since slowed to around 12-15 mph. Indeed, it will be interesting to see what happens tonight. The cloudiness has been steadily increasing this afternoon in association with it, and a few showers have recently popped up around it. Is this going to be the real deal? Or will it spit that LLC out yet again? I just don't see it making a south Florida visit in this condition. If it ramps up quicker than models forecast, then perhaps. It's still not vertically stacked either with the 500mb vorticity still over eastern Hispanola, while the 850/700mb are more vertically aligned. Bottom line, it has a ways to go yet.
Quoting 878. Heresince2005:

As I mentioned two hours ago, pretty obvious from visible that 99l has broke free of the shear. Next 12 hours extremely important. I WOULD ?E NERVOUS anywhere from Key West to Naples.
I doubt that.Florida is fine.
Only positive thing out of 99L is that the GFS Model, which we were all hating on, beat out every model! GFS>Euro?
Quoting 867. bradbarry27:



Does the last couple of frames of the visible look like the 'naked swirl' is pulling all those clouds south and southeast towards it? I am still worried about it and dont want it pulling a night time revival and I do not know enough to interpret what I am seeing very well. Thanks.
This hasn't started yet. We've been watching it go:
Chugga-chugga-chugga.....
Chugga-chugga-chugga.....
Chugga-chugga-chugga.....
Chugga-chugga-chugga.....
But the engine hasn't turned over yet....
[bad carburetor, maybe?]

Tonight's the night, imo .... if we're going to see this get a decent working centre, it's going to happen in the next 24 ....
Palm Beach County EOC is at level 3 out of 4...

Emergency Operations Center (EOC) Activation Levels

Level 1 - Full activation. All lead and support agencies are notified. The Emergency Operations Center (EOC) is staffed by Division of Emergency Management (DEM) personnel, the Executive Policy Group (EPG), all Sections and Branches, their staff, as well as State and Federal representatives.

Level 2 - Partial activation. Selected Emergency Operations Center (EOC) staff are notified. The EOC is staffed by Division of Emergency Management (DEM) personnel, appropriate Sections, their staff, and outside agencies as required to meet the operational need of the incident.

Level 3 - Monitoring. The Division of Emergency Management (DEM) transitions to this level for incidents or special events that have the potential for escalation. The County Warning Point (CWP), DEM, and/or other emergency management personnel are actively monitoring the incident/event. Notifications are made to appropriate Division and County personnel and support organizations that may be required to take action as part of their normal responsibilities.

Level 4 - Normal Operations. This is the normal day-to-day operational level for the Division of Emergency Management (DEM) and the County Warning Point (CWP), which are continuously monitoring local, regional, national, and international events, evaluating threats, and analyzing their impact on Palm Beach County. Appropriate Division and County personnel and support organizations are notified and informed through a variety of communication methods based on the urgency required of the incident/event.
Quoting 838. thetwilightzone:

we need to watch that are over jamaica

Quoting 865. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Sorry Washi, the wave expected to emerge off the coast of Africa might actually become Hermine, which means Ian would have to wait. :/


This made me feel sad.
Good Evening... surely appears that this upcoming DMAX is the last change for 99L to gain some convection and strengthen (which will allow it to gain latitude), as land interaction with Cuba will inhibit further development and allow it to degenerate.
Quoting 885. victoria780:

I feel so  low because of this Low


You just have tropical depression. It'll pass.
Feeling drained. Going to take a break...maybe for the night and wait til morning to see if anything has changed. Local news met insisting we will get rain and wind this weekend and to closely monitor the situation. Also talkinb about how to take card of our pets but not any info on how to take care of home, family, etc. Go figure! How a great evening folks.
897. Mikla
25kt shear expanded a little N and W, staying ahead of 99L. 30kt shear now over 99L.
898. MahFL
The tiniest bit of convection has popped up near the center of 99L :



Quoting 896. CitikatzSouthFL:

Feeling drained. Going to take a break...maybe for the night and wait til morning to see if anything has changed. Local news met insisting we will get rain and wind this weekend and to closely monitor the situation. Also talkinb about how to take card of our pets but not any info on how to take care of home, family, etc. Go figure! How a great evening folks.


Same here, today makes exactly 1 week I have been tracking this invest. I'm tired, depressed, need a shave and about 12 hours of sleep. Gonna lurk/pop in every once in a while to see if anything new happened, but I'm done checking in every 15 mins X_x

Me after tracking this thing all week:

What will end up happening is people will not pay attention. The news in PBC has been taking about this storm and preparations for days. I actually had a neighbor paying someone today to put up shutters. Insane

Quoting 868. opal92nwf:

This is the most excruciating invest, is it going to do ANYTHING????....

Based on the amount of attention this is getting. I wonder if in the future when a major is approaching FL, is society going to implode or something??
Quoting 835. DavidHOUTX:



That's a little extreme don't ya think?


(was referring to Broward schools shuttering windows)

It might take more man power to get them all that we might guess, and after tommorrow staff is off for two days. And were a serious storm be bearing down Monday morning, a certain number are certain no to show up for work, having matters of their own that need urgent attention.

Sounds like it's a good call to me, but really, it being Florida, they could have only learned this the hard way some time ago.
Hi all, my name's Kevin. I'm new to this blog. I've always enjoyed coming on here and reading all the discussion. Yesterday I thought it would be cool to join this blog and so I did. Anyways, yeah 99L is really struggling. It feels like the circulation is outrunning the convection for quite some time now. It does appear the storm has slowed some but the convection is so spread out, its having a hard time consolidating. Excited to track tropical weather with you all!
Quoting 901. wunderkidcayman:

Link


Starting to wrap around aven better and the clouds are thicker.......not sure 99L is done yet.
Quoting 890. BahaHurican:

This hasn't started yet. We've been watching it go:
Chugga-chugga-chugga.....
Chugga-chugga-chugga.....
Chugga-chugga-chugga.....
Chugga-chugga-chugga.....
But the engine hasn't turned over yet....
[bad carburetor, maybe?]

Tonight's the night, imo .... if we're going to see this get a decent working centre, it's going to happen in the next 24 ....


Yes, and its been showing signs all day actually, of that possibility....
Quoting 903. Kevin77:

Hi all, my name's Kevin. I'm new to this blog. I've always enjoyed coming on here and reading all the discussion. Yesterday I thought it would be cool to join this blog and so I did. Anyways, yeah 99L is really struggling. It feels like the circulation is outrunning the convection for quite some time now. It does appear the storm has slowed some but the convection is so spread out, its having a hard time consolidating. Excited to track tropical weather with you all!


Welcome! There is a new blog, see post 883. Might be more productive to say hello there. But the blog is running fast and will explode if 99L finally wakes up tonight!
FWIW, there are a FEW atoms WNW wind to be found where you want them if you are looking for full circulation to form on this 99L character:

Link

so it would be three KPH plus whatever westward blob motion to the west that you have there, assuming that the reading is not some microanomoly.

And no, I'm not 'wishcasting' at all..... although it DOES seem curious that so many of you boys are acting like you had a hot date for a Friday night, but, alas, your hope-for fair one has called to say, on THursday, that s/he has to wash her/(his) hair!~
I'm done with this storm until it reaches the Gulf. This is going in my personal record book for most annoying systems to track. It was like watching a house being built. The foundation was set. The builders waiting for the wood. "Oh there is traffic on the highway... be a bit" -later- "Turns out the highway is closed we will be stuck for a bit" -later still- "umm.. turns out our truck was the one involved so you will need to call a new supplier"

Maybe when it reaches the Gulf *shrugs* Season is still young enough.
910. dflam
FIM8 and FIM9 indicated a few days ago this system will fizzle out.

911. dflam
This is a wonderful tool to visualize the various wind patterns at different levels and the ocean patterns.
And you can go back in time!

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2016/08/25/2100Z/wi nd/surface/level/orthographic=-71.58,11.29,414
wow 99L is beginning to look like a TD/TS.