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99L Poised to Become Tropical Storm Hermine

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 3:57 PM GMT on August 24, 2016

Invest 99L is already bringing winds of tropical storm force to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and it could become a tropical storm at any time over the next day as it heads west-northwest at 15 mph towards Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. At Barbuda, sustained winds at minimal tropical storm-force—39 mph—were observed at 7:18 am AST, with a wind gust of 45 mph. At 10 am AST, Princess Juliana Airport in St. Maartin recorded sustained winds (below tropical storm-force) of 32 mph, gusting to 48 mph.

An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft was investigating 99L late Wednesday morning, and found sustained surface winds of 45 - 50 mph, and sustained winds at their 500-foot flight level of 50 - 55 mph. At 11:35 am EDT, the National Hurricane Center issued a special Tropical Weather Outlook noting that the reconnaissance mission was still ongoing. As soon as 99L develops a well-defined surface circulation, it will be called Tropical Storm Hermine.

The storm was generating heavy rains over the northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Wednesday morning, as seen on radar out of Martinique. Satellite loops on Wednesday morning showed that heavy thunderstorm activity had increased in intensity over the previous 24 hours, and had grown more organized. A well-defined surface circulation had not yet formed, though several swirls in the cloud pattern suggested that the storm may not be far from establishing one. Moderate to high wind shear of 15 - 25 knots along the north side of the storm was keeping all of 99L’s heavy thunderstorms confined to the south. Dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) was still hindering development, as seen on water vapor satellite imagery. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were favorable for development: 29°C (84°F), about 0.5°C above average. A flash flood watch is posted for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, where 2 - 4 inches of rain are expected.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of 99L.


Figure 2. Radar image of 99L taken at 9:45 am EDT August 24, 2016. Heavy rains were observed over the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Image credit: Meteo France.

Track forecast: Still uncertainty beyond The Bahamas
Since 99L had not yet formed a well-defined circulation center as of early Wednesday, it has been difficult for models to agree on its future track and intensity. Moreover, it appears that upper- and lower-level circulations are not yet well aligned. As a result, there remains a good bit of spread in how models are foreseeing its potential track.

A strong upper-level ridge now covering much of the Southeast U.S. and northern Gulf of Mexico will remain in place through the weekend, keeping 99L on its general west-northwest track for the time being. Among our three most reliable models for tropical genesis and track forecasting, the ECMWF has been the most consistent over the last couple of days. The ECMWF continues to bring 99L across or near South Florida on Sunday or Monday and moves it onward into the Gulf of Mexico. More than 90% of the 50 ECMWF ensemble members from 00Z Wednesday--and all four members of the “high probability cluster” (those that performed the best on 99L during the preceding 24 hours)--bring 99L into the Gulf. The system could make landfall next week anywhere from Texas to the Florida Panhandle, according to various ECMWF ensemble members.

The UKMET model has largely agreed with the ECMWF in recent runs, bringing 99L over Florida and into the Gulf. In contrast to its two counterparts, the GFS has been skeptical that 99L will develop at all, keeping it as a weak low--although the 00Z Wednesday run of the GFS does develop the system on its way out to sea off Florida’s East Coast. The GFS ensemble from 00Z Wednesday offers a wide range of track possibilities, with some members bringing 99L into the eastern Gulf and others keeping the system well offshore of the southeast U.S. Coast. It appears that the GFS has been putting more weight on the potential effect of Tropical Storm Gaston in helping to create a potential out-to-sea route for 99L well to the northeast of Florida. Meanwhile, UKMET ensemble runs are consistent in bringing 99L across Florida and into the Gulf, though at varying latitudes. See Figure 3 below for graphics depicting the GFS and UKMET ensemble run from 00Z Wednesday.

Given the overall agreement between the UKMET and ECMWF, and the latter’s typically high performance, a track somewhere through Florida or the Florida Straits and into the Gulf appears to be the most likely outcome, though we can’t yet rule out the northward GFS possibilities shown below. The Florida Keys will need to be especially vigilant, as 99L could track over or near them as soon as Sunday if the relatively speedy ECMWF projection is correct. The Keys are extremely vulnerable to hurricane impacts, and up to 84 hours are needed for a full evacuation along the only highway that runs from Key West to the mainland.


Figure 3. Ensemble output from the GFS (red) and UKMET (white) models from 00Z Wednesday, August 24, 2016, shows a wider range of track possibilities for Invest 99L (left) than for Tropical Storm Gaston (right). Image credit: NOAA/ESRL/GSD.

Intensity forecast: Watching and waiting
Models are now in close agreement that 99L will spend roughly 2 to 3 days over the very warm waters surrounding The Bahamas, where sea-surface temperatures are running around 29-30°C (84-86°F). The latest output from the SHIPS model (12Z Wednesday) indicates that wind shear will remain light to moderate over 99L, holding around 10-20 knots for the next couple of days and then dropping to the 5-10 knot range by this weekend. These factors support intensification, which would become more probable as soon as 99L forms a more consolidated center. The longer 99L takes to organize and the further south it tracks, the better the chance of interaction with the mountains of Hispaniola, which would interfere with its development. If the track remains further north, 99L will have a better shot at intensifying sooner. The 00Z Wednesday run of the HWRF--our top intensity model in recent years--keeps 99L as a weak wave or depression until Friday, then brings it to hurricane strength just east of South Florida on Sunday. The 06Z Wednesday HWRF run is similar, though less intense and even slower.

Even our best models are not very skilled at forecasting rapid intensification. If 99L makes it into the Bahamas with a well-organized center of circulation, the possibility of a burst of strengthening prior to any encounter with Florida would need to be monitored very closely, given the prime conditions that may be present. Should 99L enter the Gulf, it could have a longer period of potential intensification before any landfall.

The bottom line: it may well be another day, or several, before 99L manages to become a tropical storm or hurricane (assuming it does). If 99L does intensify by this weekend, there is still the possibility for tropical storm or even hurricane-level impacts in Florida. We also have the chance of a potentially serious hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico at some point next week.

Already a concern: Heavy rains and flood potential
Even if it’s well below hurricane strength, a tropical system that’s as large, moist, and slow-moving as 99L can produce torrential amounts of rain. The flow around 99L is likely to produce huge rainfall amounts and the potential for flash flooding over parts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti later this week. As noted above, a flash flood watch continued in effect Wednesday for the U.S. Virgin Islands and for Puerto Rico, where the eastern half of the island is at particular risk of flash flooding.

The 7-day precipitation outlook from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC) calls for a large area of 3” - 8” rains across Florida from Lake Okeechobee southward. Such rains could put stress on the 80-year-old dike that protects thousands of residents near Lake Okeechoobee, as discussed by Jeff Masters in a special post earlier today.

The WPC outlook also projects several inches of rain for hard-hit southeast Louisiana early next week, anticipating the potential effects of 99L’s circulation in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 4. Enhanced infrared image of Tropical Storm Gaston at 1445Z (10:45 am EDT) Wednesday, August 24, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Gaston holding just below hurricane strength
Tropical Storm Gaston remained just below hurricane strength as of the 11 am EDT Wednesday advisory from NHC. Located in the remote central Atlantic near 16.1°N, 39.4°W, Gaston was packing top sustained winds of 70 mph as it headed northwestward at around 16 mph. Gaston has only a brief window on Wednesday to become a hurricane before strong wind shear (25-30 knots) will likely put the brakes on intensification--and perhaps even weaken the storm--on Thursday and Friday. The shear should relax over the weekend, by which point Gaston will be slowing and moving over unusually warm subtropical waters (28-29°C) over the Northwest Atlantic. Gaston may well hit its peak intensity beyond the 5-day forecast period, when it should begins to recurve between latitudes 50° and 60°W, well east of Bermuda.



Figure 5. The 5-day track forecast for Typhoon Lionrock from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center as of 12Z (8:00 am) Wednesday, August 24, 2016.

Japan keeps an eye on formidable Typhoon Lionrock
The felicitously named Typhoon Lionrock is now roaring, with top sustained winds of 100 knots (115 mph) as of 12Z (8:00 am EDT) Wednesday, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Lionrock is now a Category 3 equivalent on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Still moving on an unusual southwest path at about 8 mph, Lionrock is located nearly 1000 miles southwest of Tokyo. The typhoon will soon be making a U-turn and heading to the northeast at an accelerating clip, with conditions close to ideal for strengthening for at least the next several days (SSTs of 30-31°C and wind shear below 10 knots). The 12Z Tuesday and 00Z Wednesday run of the ECMWF bring Lionrock into Japan’s most populous island, Honshu, as an extremely powerful typhoon early next week, on a left-turn hooked path reminiscent of Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy. The 00Z and 06Z Wednesday runs of the GFS are considerably weaker, with a similar left-turn landfall but well to the north of Tokyo. For more on Lionrock, see the comments section of this week’s post by wunderground member 1900hurricane.

We’ll be back with an update late Wednesday afternoon.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters


Figure 6. Enhanced infrared MODIS image of Typhoon Lionrock (1 km resolution). Image credit: CSU/RAMMB/CIRA.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 463. washingtonian115:

End of the run featuring hurricane Hermine off the east coast and hurricane Ian headed for the islands

Sooooooo this is after the South FL traverse into the GOM with a Panhandle hit and then exiting back into the Atlantic off the Carolina's?
Scary, riding up the west coast of Florida. Big change and starting to come together with the GFS.
Quoting 479. wunderkidcayman:



lol haha you tell that to the Hurricane Hunter aircraft thats flying in there and found no spin



There is spin but no closed circulation which is what but not the only thing the Hurricane Hunters were looking for
Quoting 490. CybrTeddy:

Pretty far out in the future now (10 days) but the ECMWF is starting to show the wave expected to emerge off Africa Monday night/Tuesday morning and takes it west. The focus right now should be on 99L, but the possibility for more systems to take a track like 99L exists.




I posted this on the previous blog.

Looking more and more of a SE US hit. Especially FL. Most of the state except for the far reaches of the FL Panhandle are in for this system whether its weak or strong.

506. IDTH
This is like multiplying the degree of difficulty with predicting storms in the past by almost 1000. Fujiwara effect is something that could absolutely make this one of the most difficult forecasts.
Quoting 488. wunderkidcayman:



you might be on to something


when is the next recon is there other one going out today or tonight?
the 18Z will probably have the models a little further south over the Keys. They have been trending that way on the last few runs. It might be because they are anticipating a weaker system.
509. IDTH

If it moves too fast and gets to Bahamas sooner, it's gonna feel the ridge and get shunted W or WSW, ridge is the player
Quoting 501. JNFlori30A:

Sooooooo this is after the South FL traverse into the GOM with a Panhandle hit and then exiting back into the Atlantic off the Carolina's?


Yes!
Looks like we might have a FAY type system producing heavy rains maybe in excess of a foot with winds TS force maybe hurricane force but most likely a weaker system.

Tornadoes in my area. Headed off blog for a bit.
Worst case scenario would be a major hurricane coming in just north of Tampa.
Quoting 441. frank727:



Yeah I was there for Hurricane Charley 1 mile from Indian rock beach. We were ground zero until you know what happened. Tampa St. Pete is got to be the most complacent area in the US.
Many Many people here suffer from the "they never come here-itis" . even places of work are the worst. ive been at the same very very large company for many years including 2004-2005 and they expected you at work for all those storms even when people were told not to be on the streets and it wasnt just my company... all about the money for them and not safety.
When you look at the mess maybe the GFS is right.
Sure seems like the spin in the mona passage is washing out and the one NE of PR seems to be stretching out. Perhaps a common center forming near the north coast of PR. Long way to go but look at the yellow cloud lines off the south coast of PR on the RBG loop.
Quoting 482. AlexanderRG:


Looks like a double-swirl for me with centers around 19N65W and 19N69W. We'll see where circulation closes eventually.



One of the models had this scenario early on with a split into 2 lows below the bahamas

It was thrown out then, but would be nice to go back and see which model it was
520. IDTH
Quoting 500. wunderkidcayman:



no xFiona is well NW of there

Whoops, I had no clue what I was looking at.
The model track running up the east coast reminds me of Hurricane David.
Quoting 505. StormTrackerScott:

Looking more and more of a SE US hit. Especially FL. Most of the state except for the far reaches of the FL Panhandle are in for this system whether its weak or strong.


522. A4Guy
Seems to me that precipitation coverage is increasing and there is a lot of atmosphere still in motion...but organization is deteriorating. Circulation is becoming LESS defined. Needs to slow down to develop (and get away from the high shear).
523. IDTH
Quoting 514. MonsterTrough:

Tornadoes in my area. Headed off blog for a bit.




Stay safe!
Quoting 482. AlexanderRG:


Looks like a double-swirl for me with centers around 19N65W and 19N69W. We'll see where circulation closes eventually.



What I would expect is this... The swirl at 19N 69W is indeed a lower level spin, but I would expect that to get torn up over the mountains of Hispanola, associated thunderstorms are diurnally induced. The other spin near 19N 65W would be the one that bears watching as it moves WNW as it has nothing but warm, blue water ahead of it. Just my uneducated guess.
So a Dropsonde from the Global hawk measured 988mb at the surface with 48 mph winds. Gaston is probably much stronger than the NHC's 999mb.

988mb (29.18 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 25.2°C (77.4°F) 24.9°C (77°F) 55° (from the NE) 42 knots (48 mph)
528. A4Guy
Also seems like the further West Gaston travels...the more 99L will feel the influence/weakness in the high Gaston is creating...so not surprising to see this shift north and east in the latest runs.
Quoting 442. nash36:



Sure, it could turn out to never develop. We've seen it before. We'll see.
This would be the happy story for me. Lots of drama while watching it, no trauma for me this weekend.
Of course, Floridians might think this means they won't ever get hit, but ..... [shrugs]
Quoting 471. georgevandenberghe:



Some younger ones don't. Andrew almost fell apart a few days before wiping out South Florida as a Cat 5.
US landfall anniversary is today, IIRC ...
Remember, this is what the models said was going to happen, expect the worst and if it amounts to nothing well then beach day
Quoting 517. washingaway:

When you look at the mess maybe the GFS is right.


Has a way to go, that is for sure.
Trackwise 99L reminds me a lot more of Irene than Andrew. Fiona was on Andrew's track.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
329 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

INC067-242000-
/O.CON.KIND.TO.W.0023.000000T0000Z-160824T2000Z/
HOWARD IN-
329 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR KOKOMO CONTINUES...

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT FOR EASTERN
HOWARD COUNTY...

AT 328 PM EDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE TORNADO WAS LOCATED
NEAR KOKOMO...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR KOKOMO. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS
SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...DEADLY TORNADO.

SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY
BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES
WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES...
BUSINESSES...AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE
DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
GREENTOWN AROUND 335 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS...AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE
TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE
IMMEDIATE TORNADO PRECAUTIONS. THIS IS AN EMERGENCY SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 4054 8586 4041 8586 4041 8613 4053 8613
4056 8600 4056 8587
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 265DEG 25KT 4049 8603

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC
HAIL...1.00IN
I know this blog is mainly tropical but
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
325 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

INC067-242000-
/O.CON.KIND.TO.W.0023.000000T0000Z-160824T2000Z/
HOWARD IN-
325 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR KOKOMO...

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT FOR EASTERN
HOWARD COUNTY...

AT 324 PM EDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE TORNADO WAS LOCATED
OVER KOKOMO...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR KOKOMO. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS
SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...DEADLY TORNADO.

SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY
BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES
WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES...
BUSINESSES...AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE
DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
GREENTOWN AROUND 340 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS...AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE
TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE
IMMEDIATE TORNADO PRECAUTIONS. THIS IS AN EMERGENCY SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 4054 8586 4041 8586 4041 8613 4053 8613
4056 8600 4056 8587
TIME...MOT...LOC 1924Z 265DEG 25KT 4048 8608

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

RYAN
EDIT: I didn't see someone posted this already
Quoting 516. intampa:

Many Many people here suffer from the "they never come here-itis" . even places of work are the worst. ive been at the same very very large company for many years including 2004-2005 and they expected you at work for all those storms even when people were told not to be on the streets and it wasnt just my company... all about the money for them and not safety.
Don't worry. They'd send a nice wreath of plastic flowers to your memorial service.
Quoting 481. HaoleboySurfEC:

We had it easy this year. No late frost. Very wet though. Kids were in pool April 10th or something absurd. Worst pollen season I have ever seen.

Most incredible harvest of snap peas. Plants were breaking from the weight. I have bags and bags of frozen ones still.

I could see some action from Hermine. Ugh, the joy of it all.




Yeah speaking of snap peas, mine did okay this spring and survived the freeze as 10" vines. My fall ones planted August 3 are figuratively (and literally) toast! I've tried again with an August 10 and August 18 planting but freeze risk is high when planting this late. Hard to think of freezes with this heat:-)
Once Hermine has disappeared I will certainly pay attention to those models that were more accurate in tracking Hermine's path for future storm formation and tracking (especially Ian) .
Quoting 470. Misanthroptimist:


Hint: The "G" in AGW stands for "Global." Pass it on. ;-)
"Understanding" doesn't jive with this [redacted]poster's worldview.
Quoting 522. A4Guy:

Seems to me that precipitation coverage is increasing and there is a lot of atmosphere still in motion...but organization is deteriorating. Circulation is becoming LESS defined. Needs to slow down to develop (and get away from the high shear).
Looks like the high may have discombobulated it rather thoroughly....
Quoting 534. MrTornadochase:

I know this blog is mainly tropical but
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
325 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

INC067-242000-
/O.CON.KIND.TO.W.0023.000000T0000Z-160824T2000Z/
HOWARD IN-
325 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR KOKOMO...

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT FOR EASTERN
HOWARD COUNTY...

AT 324 PM EDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE TORNADO WAS LOCATED
OVER KOKOMO...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR KOKOMO. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS
SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...DEADLY TORNADO.

SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY
BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES
WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES...
BUSINESSES...AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE
DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
GREENTOWN AROUND 340 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS...AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE
TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE
IMMEDIATE TORNADO PRECAUTIONS. THIS IS AN EMERGENCY SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 4054 8586 4041 8586 4041 8613 4053 8613
4056 8600 4056 8587
TIME...MOT...LOC 1924Z 265DEG 25KT 4048 8608

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

RYAN


Wow. Originally from Indiana, and have been to Kokomo. Hope everyone is ok there.
Quoting 489. FOREX:

The Weather Channel Hurricane Expert still very bullish on 99L once it gets closer to Florida, so if he is bullish we should be.


Bullish how? In forming at all or where it will go.
Hopefully the rain will come back
543. wpb
surprised the radar out of san juan has not helped forecasters
guess its just paint splattered on the wall no real picture.
Even though the models have shifted north and east, The NHC is waiting for consistency before they change this graphic. Oblique angles are always difficult to pin point where a storm may come ashore. Remember Charley and how it was "supposed" to go into Tampa only to take a right turn into Punta Gorda.

545. FOREX
Quoting 541. SELAliveforthetropic:



Bullish how? In forming at all or where it will go.
forming into a potentially strong hurricane once it reaches 90 degree water n low shear.
Quoting 541. SELAliveforthetropic:



Bullish how? In forming at all or where it will go.


I would imagine formation. There is no way one of those mets would make a silly mistake as to be "bullish" on where this going, especially with so much uncertainty. They have no idea.
547. wpb
Quoting 541. SELAliveforthetropic:



Bullish how? In forming at all or where it will go. twc the place that shows the same repeated shows about nothing instead of severe weather
Quoting 497. CaribBoy:

99L is such a mess lol
Ha.
How much rain did you get so far?
The NAM model at 84 hrs:

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 22m22 minutes ago
Seeing indications for MDR activity to continue through the first 2 weeks of Sep. This should be a nice Atlantic seasonal peak in activity.
Please, please tell me that isn't the NAM being posted during tropical season...
I think the news is mainly positive regarding 99L today. It's near tropical storm status and has the winds of course, but it's got a rough two days ahead with shear, and models seem to be converging towards the general idea of the GFS. Maybe some redemption for that model after the Euro took round one with the system.
554. IDTH
Nav was very similar to the Euro

555. beell
Something's eating at the main convective mass of 99L as noted by that southwestward moving divot into the mid-level(?) center . I wonder if dry, descending upper outflow from the band of convection along the northern extent of the wave is having an effect. Northeast share. What goes up, must come down.







Maybe I'm trying too hard!
I know this is blog to voice your opinions but.. have you read the latest from the NHC? They are not saying this system is going away. They claim this is near tropical storm strength now and could form at anytime. This may change at 8pm bu until then I would trust their judgement. Also, The Weather Channel Hurricane Expert is pretty much on board that this will have an impact on the southeast as a decent event.

Its frustrating seeing post about how the system is dead when it truly sheared and not nearly as elongated as it was 24hrs ago. It needs time to stack and that will happen most likely. It does not need to be perfect to be classified either.

Begin hate mail.... now.
Looks like we are back to an OTS solution. For now that is...
I SEE THE BLOGS WHIPPED INTO A MODEL FRENZY....UNTILL THERES SOMETHING FOR THE MODELS TP LATCH ON TO THEY WILL BE ALL OVER THE PLACE. I THINK YOU NEED AT LEAST A DEPRESSION ON FOR THEM TO WORK.
Quoting 507. thetwilightzone:



when is the next recon is there other one going out today or tonight?
Seems to be tomorrow morning.
Quoting 555. beell:

Something's eating at the main convective mass of 99L as noted by that southwestward moving divot into the mid-level(?) center . I wonder if dry, descending upper outflow from the band of convection along the northern extent of the wave is having an effect. Northeast share. What goes up, must come down.







Maybe I'm trying too hard!


The lack of convection near PR and N Leewards is insulting.

Just like Erika last year most rain stayed were it was not supposed to be last night.
561. MAstu
NOAA has stopped using all caps in its forecasts
Quoting 555. beell:

Something's eating at the main convective mass of 99L as noted by that southwestward moving divot into the mid-level(?) center . I wonder if dry, descending upper outflow from the band of convection along the northern extent of the wave is having an effect. Northeast share. What goes up, must come down.







Maybe I'm trying too hard!

It may get ripped apart soon . Shear is too high. Also, dry air intrusion (albeit the immediate surrounding is relatively humid)
Quoting 552. StormJunkie:

Please, please tell me that isn't the NAM being posted during tropical season...


Well it gets high grades for cool graphics...that is really nice looking!
Quoting 555. beell:

Something's eating at the main convective mass of 99L as noted by that southwestward moving divot into the mid-level(?) center . I wonder if dry, descending upper outflow from the band of convection along the northern extent of the wave is having an effect. Northeast share. What goes up, must come down.







Maybe I'm trying too hard!
Link

Is this an anti-cyclone or something I am unfamiliar with ? Seems very large.
Quoting 553. MAweatherboy1:

I think the news is mainly positive regarding 99L today. It's near tropical storm status and has the winds of course, but it's got a rough two days ahead with shear, and models seem to be converging towards the general idea of the GFS. Maybe some redemption for that model after the Euro took round one with the system.


Well none of the models had it getting together as a TS by now, including the Euro run that turned it into Katrina's big sister. It's always been what happens once the circulation arrives in the Bahamas.
99L looks hideous this afternoon.
567. A4Guy
Have no meteorological experience/education whatsoever...just follow this blog regularly. Also not a wishcaster/doomcaster/downcaster or any other kind of caster...but from a lot of years of watching tropical cyclones and cyclogenesis...there is almost no organization left to this system. Can no loner see any sort of rotation - it's just a mess of disorganized convection. Doesn't mean it won't develop...just means at the moment, it is not a tropical cyclone of any sort. Just my opinion...not a statement of fact.
Quoting 560. CaribBoy:



The lack of convection near PR and N Leewards is insulting.

Just like Erika last year most rain stayed were it was not supposed to be last night.

Yes, its rate of decaying is too fast
Interesting cloud movement over Hispanola. Looks like a seperate system lol.
Quoting 551. Gearsts:

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 22m22 minutes ago
Seeing indications for MDR activity to continue through the first 2 weeks of Sep. This should be a nice Atlantic seasonal peak in activity.


May allow to ease somewhat the disappointment left behind 99L.

Hopefully they won't say the opposite in a few days.
Quoting 441. frank727:



Yeah I was there for Hurricane Charley 1 mile from Indian rock beach. We were ground zero until you know what happened. Tampa St. Pete is got to be the most complacent area in the US.


I agree, I moved to Manatee county in 2014 from the Northeast. Never saw such a level of complacency as I do here, yesterday me and wife went to Walmart, just "IN CASE" something does come crushing through here, plus I wanted a coffee pot I could put on grill, wanted an extra flash light, some canned goods, water, etc. people looked at me like a storm was coming??? All I had to make them assume that was 12 gallons of water. When panic strikes here, it happens fast and then it's too late. Trust me I know I was in college here in 1992 in Broward County when Andrew struck People were gearing up for hurricane parties, being a commercial fisherman at the time during Andrew I saw it coming and fled immediately...that storm was no joke
Quoting 558. Tampa969mlb:

I SEE THE BLOGS WHIPPED INTO A MODEL FRENZY....UNTILL THERES SOMETHING FOR THE MODELS TP LATCH ON TO THEY WILL BE ALL OVER THE PLACE. I THINK YOU NEED AT LEAST A DEPRESSION ON FOR THEM TO WORK.


CAPS? Anyway, there are a lot of smart folks on this blog. There are also a bunch of rookies who like to work others up or who are simply easily worked up themselves. Even the smart folks tend to forget your important point. We need a defined center/system. Models are going to bounce around until then. Naked swirl or not, this could still be a killer. It's supposed to be struggling at this point. Tomorrow starts to tell us more. Until then... The unnecessary frenzy will continue...
In the past 20years I feel Ive seen this scenario play out so many times I cant count...Best wait till its in the Bahamas or has a closed low. to get any idea where  its going.
575. IDTH
Quoting 569. MiamiHurricanes09:

Interesting cloud movement over Haiti. Looks like a seperate system lol.

I noted that, thought it was Fiona at first.
Gaston is looking bad. i wonder if the dry air is killing this storm too.
And people are back to saying this thing is going to get ripped apart XD

I don't want any of you to think you are definitely not going to see a storm from this (Remember katrina)
12Z models are moving 99L all over the place. GFS stays weak in the Atlantic, Euro stays over land in Florida (moved east hundreds of miles from 00Z), NAVGEM hits Apalachicola and the Canadian hits Pensacola. I'm pulling for the GFS.
Quoting 551. Gearsts:

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 22m22 minutes ago
Seeing indications for MDR activity to continue through the first 2 weeks of Sep. This should be a nice Atlantic seasonal peak in activity.


About a week ago Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice made a tweet about the Atlantic being less active. LOL
Remember the ones you get right and throw the other ones in the trash.
Quoting 574. Zombiecmh:

I'm just a scared out of my mind wannabe coonass from Louisiana. Can you guys explain why the euro suddenly changed its mind and decided the gfs (the ralphie wiggum of the models) was on to something. What would make it do the hook east?


I have homes in New Orleans and the Mississippi Coast. The northern Gulf is by far not out of the woods. The models don't have a system center to lock onto. The weak system is causing the swings.
In Old San Juan is sunny.

Quoting 578. pensacolastorm:

12Z models are moving 99L all over the place. GFS stays weak in the Atlantic, Euro stays over land in Florida (moved east hundreds of miles from 00Z), NAVGEM hits Apalachicola and the Canadian hits Pensacola. I'm pulling for the GFS.
583. IDTH
Quoting 575. IDTH:


I noted that, thought it was Fiona at first.

Speaking of which......


584. beell
Quoting 564. stormwatcherCI:

Link

Is this an anti-cyclone or something I am unfamiliar with ? Seems very large.


There is an anticyclone aloft above 99L. Usually a good thing. Perhaps a part of the upper flow is descending into the core-adding some northeast shear and dry air.

Quoting 563. HTownJitters:



Well it gets high grades for cool graphics...that is really nice looking!


I gotta say, the NAM does get points for bling. Tropical cyclone forecasting... not so much.

We'll give it a sticker for effort.



On a slightly deviant note, I seem to recall some note has been taken of Florida's recent hurricane drought.

You may find it of trivial interest to know that The Bahamas experienced a twelve-year hurricane drought between 1979, when David impacted the islands as a category 1 storm, and Andrew, which in 1992 passed through at Category 5 intensity. When it comes to major storms, the entire first period of Progressive Liberal Party governance, from 1969 to 1992, took place in a major hurricane drought which lasted from Betsy's cat 3 pass in 1965 to Andrew's 1992 appearance. [Incidentally, four days after the government changed, Andrew ripped us a new one .... lol] Twenty-seven years without a major hurricane? There was an entire generation of Bahamians who viewed major hurricane landfall stories as "ole talk" right up there with Anansi and Ber Bouki.
587. JKC
I live on St. Croix. This morning we had a rain band come in with steady rain for about 45 minutes at about 10:30AM.
No Winds either. Now its starting to get overcast with dark Cloud cover as we believe the heaviest rains will start moving in from the east and southeast.

It seems that the amount of rainfall has been challenging for forecasters this year. It is very easy to misinterpret the
amount of rain from the Satellite Loops.

Hurricane Hunters are here with two air crafts. Does anybody have any comments on the precip questions and does anyone think 99L will go to Storm Status (Hermine)?
damn one of the runs has it slamming into Tampa bay practically right over my house guess this far out anything is possible...
Well currently there is a tornado warning for Indianapolis.Nothing reported quite yet.
590. beell
Maybe the wave has fractured. Don't know. Lunch time musing. Carry on.
Here in NOLA with elderly folks. Keeping a wary eye on 99L . If 99L develops will Hermine be in GOM by Tuesday?
Sun out in a hurry :\

Quoting 566. washingtonian115:

99L looks hideous this afternoon.
It's looked hideous pretty much every afternoon ....

What a mess!
Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 20m20 minutes ago
The double-barreled vort max (primary NE of PR, secondary near Dominican Republic) was not forecast well by models
Latest vis shot from RAMMB; now looking like two eyes under one big eyebrow looking back on us.......................Don't have a clue what will happen at this point.

And.....................

We're back..........





I just want a long track Cape Verde storm that doesn't impact land and strengthens all the way up to extratropical transition...... Like Danielle in 2010..
598. IDTH
Quoting 596. weathermanwannabe:

Latest vis shot from RAMMB; now looking like two eyes under one big eyebrow looking back on us.......................Don't have a clue what will happen at this point.



Two words

CONFUSION AMOK!
Quoting 591. sugahcane:

Here in NOLA with elderly folks. Keeping a wary eye on 99L . If 99L develops will Hermine be in GOM by Tuesday?

If the Gulf comes into play, Tuesday-Wenesday timeframe about right.
Quoting 572. palmpt:


Sone of the vets were way off...

Quoting 598. IDTH:


Two words

CONFUSION AMOK!
Or the start of the Fujiwhara effect...............................Lol!
Fiona looks to be on the comeback trail wind shear is light and convection is ramping up big time, question is, is there a circulation left?
Quoting 586. BahaHurican:

On a slightly deviant note, I seem to recall some note has been taken of Florida's recent hurricane drought.

You may find it of trivial interest to know that The Bahamas experienced a twelve-year hurricane drought between 1979, when David impacted the islands as a category 1 storm, and Andrew, which in 1992 passed through at Category 5 intensity. When it comes to major storms, the entire first period of Progressive Liberal Party governance, from 1969 to 1992, took place in a major hurricane drought which lasted from Betsy's cat 3 pass in 1965 to Andrew's 1992 appearance. [Incidentally, four days after the government changed, Andrew ripped us a new one .... lol] Twenty-seven years without a major hurricane? There was an entire generation of Bahamians who viewed major hurricane landfall stories as "ole talk" right up there with Anansi and Ber Bouki.


David was one of the scariest nights of my life and I do not wish to repeat it. When I saw the ensemble track from this morning it gave me chills. That was back in the days when the fire department went up and down every street in the middle of the night telling us to evacuate. As a teen, when my mom told me to go in my room and pick one thing to bring with me I about died. Of course I picked the guinea pig.
Quoting 577. Icybubba:

And people are back to saying this thing is going to get ripped apart XD

I don't want any of you to think you are definitely not going to see a storm from this (Remember katrina)
I prolly remember that part of Katrina better than you do .... I'm only saying anything's possible right now. There's no "definitely" about what we're going to see. It could entirely be ripped apart. Mind you, my dream storm in this situation is a gusty rainy afternoon and evening with some localized flooding as a result. No name required. But two unnamed systems this year have already impacted people to the tune of taking lives. In that context, it doesn't matter whether we "see a storm" or not. No need to be bombastic about it.
Quoting 563. HTownJitters:



Well it gets high grades for cool graphics...that is really nice looking!


I can't argue that. ;-)
12Z models are moving 99L all over the place. GFS stays weak in the Atlantic, Euro stays over land in Florida (moved east hundreds of miles from 00Z), NAVGEM hits Apalachicola and the Canadian hits Pensacola. I'm pulling for the GFS.
99L is looking more like an old blob. Could it become a wave?
If this thing splits into 2 storms.....
The secondary surface vort max is pushing the primary vort max northeast of PR towards the WNW or NW right now.
Quoting 595. Gearsts:

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 20m20 minutes ago
The double-barreled vort max (primary NE of PR, secondary near Dominican Republic) was not forecast well by models
been busy all day at work just checking in 99l looks perfect seems the disintegrating gun is working for now anyway

FIona has developed great convective canopy over the LLC remnants
Quoting 597. JrWeathermanFL:

And.....................

We're back..........





I just want a long track Cape Verde storm that doesn't impact land and strengthens all the way up to extratropical transition...... Like Danielle in 2010..


Uhh. What's going on with 99L? It's splitting in two?
Models aren't going to get a good handle on this till it develops a good center. As we always say with the models if you put garbage in you get garbage out. Bad initializations can throw off an entire run.
615. IDTH
Quoting 610. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

been busy all day at work just checking in 99l looks perfect seems the disintegrating gun is working for now anyway



"And oh boy when it disintegrates, it disintegrates."

Clicks the trigger

"Wow whadya know it, it disintegrated."
Quoting 590. beell:

Maybe the wave has fractured. Don't know. Lunch time musing. Carry on.
Wasn't somebody speculating about that last night? It's possible, though I can't remember off the top of my head a decent example of that.
Quoting 596. weathermanwannabe:

Latest vis shot from RAMMB; now looking like two eyes under one big eyebrow looking back on us.......................Don't have a clue what will happen at this point.


Would be massively freaky if that so-called "secondary low" over the DR takes over ... bringing impacts to the TCI and SE Bahamas a day earlier than expected ....
Quoting 597. JrWeathermanFL:

And.....................

We're back..........



I just want a long track Cape Verde storm that doesn't impact land and strengthens all the way up to extratropical transition...... Like Danielle in 2010..
Good luck with that ....
Quoting 613. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




You can clearly see one of the vort maxes being ejected out to the west on that towards Dominica and Haiti. What a mess.
Latest Euro reminds me of a Charley track.
Quoting 607. NSB207:

99L is looking more like an old blob. Could it become a wave?
Technically it still is.... which is part of its problem.
Potentially dangerous tornado touching down in downtown Indianapolis. Stay safe out there, folks.
Quoting 588. Ctwhitechin:

damn one of the runs has it slamming into Tampa bay practically right over my house guess this far out anything is possible...
that means its fizzling out as we speak lol. whenever those models put the bulls eye on tampa the storm misses by 1000s of miles or just flat out dies.
Anyone with any information on PDS situation going on in Indianapolis?
Starbucks taken out in the Kokomo, IN tornado. Reports say everyone is okay.

Link
Quoting 363. tiggeriffic:



if that holds......that is gonna suck for the east coast.....at least that is what it looks like.....



Ugh.

Guess I better start breaking out the rain gear just in case it's going to suck to work in these conditions
Yikes

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
425 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

INC059-097-242045-
/O.CON.KIND.TO.W.0025.000000T0000Z-160824T2045Z/
HANCOCK IN-MARION IN-
425 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN HANCOCK AND CENTRAL MARION COUNTIES...

AT 423 PM EDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS
LOCATED NEAR INDIANAPOLIS...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. AT 422 PM A TORNADO WAS
REPORTED EAST NORTHEAST OF DOWNTOWN INDIANAPOLIS ON
INTERSTATE 70.

IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY
BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES
WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES...
BUSINESSES...AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE
DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.


THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LAWRENCE AND CUMBERLAND AROUND 445 PM EDT.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 110 AND 118.
INTERSTATE 69 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 200 AND 202.
INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 78 AND 98.
INTERSTATE 74 NEAR MILE MARKER 94.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW!
MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE
HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

IF A TORNADO OR OTHER SEVERE WEATHER IS SPOTTED...REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR YOUR LOCAL NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
WHO WILL SEND YOUR REPORT. THIS ACT MAY SAVE LIVES OF OTHERS IN THE
PATH OF DANGEROUS WEATHER.

&&
Quoting 622. DeepSeaRising:

Anyone with any information on PDS situation going on in Indianapolis?

watch the weather ch its live right now and thats the best info you will find right now
Quoting 617. Michfan:



You can clearly see one of the vort maxes being ejected out to the west on that towards Dominica and Haiti. What a mess.
But instead of being a well-behaved rejected max that slinks off to a corner and quietly spins down, this one seems to be trying to steal the covers ....
99L looks great! By great, I mean for us, from an organizational stand point it looks horrid, just like yesterday.
Link Cool pic of the HH at 600 feet with 50kt winds on the ocean surface

img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">
630. IDTH
Quoting 627. BahaHurican:

But instead of being a well-behaved rejected max that slinks off to a corner and quietly spins down, this one seems to be trying to steal the covers ....

This is blowing my mind right now.
Cone for Gaston is moving further west... Bermuda should keep an eye on this
Don't have TWC, and I love it here, people usually have great updates and video of real time severe events.
633. IDTH
Sudduth with a new video


Quoting 622. DeepSeaRising:

Anyone with any information on PDS situation going on in Indianapolis?

I am living it. Sheltered while Torn Warn for my area. Area of instability has passed south and east of me. If you're familar with Indy, Tornado/funnel seen near 21st and Shadeland (Eastside) traversing due east. Almost out of the county now. It got really dark and lots of lightning from 21st to 75th st on N side of town. Too close for comfort.

damage 40 miles north in Kokomo.
635. IDTH
Quoting 631. Felix2007:

Cone for Gaston is moving further west... Bermuda should keep an eye on this


Could be a really bad storm for Bermuda if it does hit them.
Quoting 625. VAbeachhurricanes:

Yikes

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
425 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

INC059-097-242045-
/O.CON.KIND.TO.W.0025.000000T0000Z-160824T2045Z/
HANCOCK IN-MARION IN-
425 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN HANCOCK AND CENTRAL MARION COUNTIES...

AT 423 PM EDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS
LOCATED NEAR INDIANAPOLIS...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. AT 422 PM A TORNADO WAS
REPORTED EAST NORTHEAST OF DOWNTOWN INDIANAPOLIS ON
INTERSTATE 70.

IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY
BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES
WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES...
BUSINESSES...AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE
DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.


THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LAWRENCE AND CUMBERLAND AROUND 445 PM EDT.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 110 AND 118.
INTERSTATE 69 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 200 AND 202.
INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 78 AND 98.
INTERSTATE 74 NEAR MILE MARKER 94.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW!
MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE
HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

IF A TORNADO OR OTHER SEVERE WEATHER IS SPOTTED...REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR YOUR LOCAL NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
WHO WILL SEND YOUR REPORT. THIS ACT MAY SAVE LIVES OF OTHERS IN THE
PATH OF DANGEROUS WEATHER.

&&


Hubby works at Eli Lilly in Indy. He is still down in the basement.
Quoting 614. Michfan:

Models aren't going to get a good handle on this till it develops a good center. As we always say with the models if you put garbage in you get garbage out. Bad initializations can throw off an entire run.


The problem is, the envelope is so large, it may never be able to develop a defined center. It's just one elongated mess. We shall see in the coming days...and when I say days, I mean 3-4 out. This will take time to develop IF it does at all. Currently it is at Junk rain shower status.
You have to understand that the extraterrestrial built a base at El Yunque Rain Forest. As result they will turn their blower on to Poof anything that can damage their facilities.


Quoting 613. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


The blog has slooowwwwedddd down a whole lot........
I doubt that report. Anyone who pays $8 for a cup of coffee is not okay.

In all seriousness, that is good to hear.

Quoting 623. Sangria:

Starbucks taken out in the Kokomo, IN tornado. Reports say everyone is okay.

Link
I think once she lifts North of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola she'll pull herself back together and start to strengthen. She might start that as early as later tonight.
Not weather related, but very cool nonetheless...

An Earth-like planet has been discovered orbiting Proxima Centauri, our Solar System's next-door neighbor.

It is within the "Goldilocks Zone" necessary for life, and an unmanned mission could visit it within the lifetimes of people living today.
Quoting 641. HaoleboySurfEC:

I doubt that report. Anyone who pays $8 for a cup of coffee is not okay.

In all seriousness, that is good to hear.


Quoting 630. IDTH:


This is blowing my mind right now.
its doing an island hop skip and jump sometimes it don't work out well till its back into a more open sea like area


do u want a monster storm
646. IDTH
Sudduth is just as annoyed as us on the blog because of how uncertain this forecast is. Say's this is the most complicated forecast he's seen in quite some time.
Quoting 641. HaoleboySurfEC:

I doubt that report. Anyone who pays $8 for a cup of coffee is not okay.

In all seriousness, that is good to hear.




Prices must have dropped if it's down to $8 a cup now... Oh wait. I live in the price gouge me state. nvm.

What is the tough to predict strength at landfall for 99L now?
Quoting 640. cat6band:

The blog has slooowwwwedddd down a whole lot........
Could have something to do with the models shifting east and showing a weaker storm.
Vort increasing on the eastern tip of the DR heading, dare I say it, towards the WEST !!!

If 99L spits out two systems that would be something for the books LOL.

The INDY tornado IS SERIOUS. Nasty nasty signature. Lets hope damage is minimal

99L. I cautiously disagree with Levi. The HRWF showed this happening. I do not understand the degree of relaxation among posters here. This invest has very strong vorticty -- remember, most reliable models suggested cyclone formation 36 hours from now. The vorticity north of PR will become dominant IMO and be gathering strength by Thursday late night. I unfortunately think the models are downplaying the potential intensification in the Bahamas. 48 plus hours in that bathtub seems unlikely to produce only a tropical storm.

I think the GFS is overdoing the weakness. That ridge is rock solid IMO. Homestead to Naples should be watching very closely.

** Always follow the NHC guidelines. This is strictly opinion.
Quoting 642. 69Viking:

I think once she lifts North of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola she'll pull herself back together and start to strengthen. She might start that as early as later tonight.
well I told someone yesterday night that I was planning on a denture fitting o around midnight or so I think she ask for something with some teeth or will it be something with teeth cant remember
http://meteo.cw/sat_loop.php?Lang=Eng&St=TNCC&Sws=R 11
99L Doesn't look very good.
NOAAHurricaneHunters ‏@NOAA_HurrHunter 52m52 minutes ago
#NOAA43 and the crew are preparing for a 0200L takeoff into #invest99. This will start a series of flights to improve the forecast models.
53 retweets 57 likes
Reply Retweet 53
Like
Quoting 647. Dakster:



Prices must have dropped if it's down to $8 a cup now... Oh wait. I live in the price gouge me state. nvm.

What is the tough to predict strength at landfall for 99L now?
what is a large double double up their anyway 10 dollars
It is starting to look like the Euro really wet the bed on this one
Quoting 612. AldreteMichael:



Uhh. What's going on with 99L? It's splitting in two?


No thats just my heart
Quoting 653. cowgirl2958:

Link
99L Doesn't look very good.
great isn't it I am very happy to be honest my bad vibe has settle down some too
Quoting 654. CybrTeddy:

NOAAHurricaneHunters ‏@NOAA_HurrHunter 52m52 minutes ago
#NOAA43 and the crew are preparing for a 0200L takeoff into #invest99. This will start a series of flights to improve the forecast models.
53 retweets 57 likes
Reply Retweet 53
Like
I hope they got the seed packs loaded j/k
Quoting 648. washingtonian115:

Could have something to do with the models shifting east and showing a weaker storm.
Or with frustration levels at an all-time high due to weird multiple centres ... lol
Once 99L's LLC gets away from that shear and into the SE Bahamas she might be a meany.
In spite of the degraded satellite presentation, dropsonde data
from the unmanned NASA Global Hawk aircraft investigating Gaston
support keeping the intensity at 60 kt. In fact, additional
observations from the ongoing mission might reveal that the system
is even a little stronger than this estimate.

From the newest advisory...

Well it would look better than Bertha did in 2014
Folks don't be fooled , 99L is going to start organizing over the SE Bahamas and pull a katrina type intensification as it approaches SE Florida , for those who say that it will miss florida its highly unlikely with the strong ridge to its north, the main this preventing this to quickly organize is it consolidating and getting vertically stacked , the shear to the north of it and the presence of dry air. folks keep a very very close eye on it !!
664. IDTH
Quoting 645. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

its doing an island hop skip and jump sometimes it don't work out well till its back into a more open sea like area


do u want a monster storm

Absolutely not. I do not wish destruction upon anyone.

I know just how bad the potential is with this storm, what I find unnerving is the confusion and uncertainty with this forecast. Anything could happen at this point especially when we don't have a COC to track. The models have flipped and flopped all over the place, even Gaston's track is uncertain now. The issue I have is if this consolidates quickly right before a landfall, people won't be ready. That's why this is system and it's forecast is frustrating for not just forecasters but those who live along the coastal areas or are planning flights there.

Keep, I don't wish cast but if I lived across the coast, I'd at least would want to know earlier whether a storm will threaten land as a significant storm or not. The fact it's taking longer means it could take many by surprise or it may not develop at all. That's why I'm frustrated by how difficult of a forecast this has become.
The ghost of Fiona is showing signs of life...

Is it possible for 99L to split in two?








Forecasters predict Invest 99L could turn into Tropical Storm Hermine, day, August 24, 2016 2:06p
)
Meteorologists across Florida were watching weather patterns closely on Wednesday as hurricane hunters flew into a developing system that forecasters say could turn into a tropical storm this week.

The system, dubbed tropical wave Invest 99L, hung in the Atlantic over the Leeward Islands on Wednesday afternoon. The National Hurricane Center predicted the disturbance had an 80 percent chance of turning into a tropical depression and, with the right wind speed, Tropical Storm Hermine.

As of 2 p.m., the wave still did not have a well-defined circulation, according to reports from a U.S. Air Force reconnaissance plane.

"It's too early to say if it will become anything; it could fall apart," said 10Weather WTSP meteorologist Ashley Batey. "But we are watching it closely and it's looking like Southeast Florida would be the most likely hard-hit area."

Batey said a hurricane is unlikely, but that doesn't leave central Florida off the hook. It's still a few days before meteorologists can reliably predict the impact, and how it will affect the area. If a tropical storm hit Tampa Bay, the flooding could be serious, Batey said.

Rick Davis, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Tampa, said if the system developed further Wednesday or in the next few days, it would likely prompt advisories across Florida. He suggests people be prepared.

"People in Southeast and Central Florida just need to be prepared and stay abreast of the situation," Davis said. "This is just another very good reminder people should have hurricane preparedness plans ready."

He acknowledged some Floridians may be unconcerned because a hurricane hasn't hit the area in more than a decade. But he said there's still time to get batteries and other supplies together if the storm turns ugly in the Tampa Bay area.

Come Friday, Batey said, when the system is expected to move over warmer waters in the Bahamas, forecasters will have a better idea of where the system could be headed. That would mean the Miami area could get hit with severe storms as soon as Sunday. The Tampa Bay area likely wouldn't feel any possible effects until Monday or Tuesday, Batey said.

"If we luck out with this one, that's not to say there's not another one down the pike," Batey said. "We've still got two months of hurricane season left."

Contact Sara DiNatale at sdinatale@tampabay.com. Follow @sara_dinatale.

An enhanced satellite image shows the location of Invest 99L at 2 a.m. Wednesday. [Weather Underground]
An enhanced satellite image shows the location of Invest 99L at 2 a.m. Wednesday. [Weather Underground]
Forecasters predict Invest 99L could turn into Tropical Storm Hermine, hit Florida 08/24/16 [Last modified: Wednesday, August 24, 2016 4:15pm]
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2016 Tampa Bay


NHC should low the chances 0 % at short term and even the long term (IMO)
Good Afternoon Everybody

Long time lurker and weather enthusiast - by all means i have no formal education in meteorology, but am fascinated by all things weather related. Currently a Miami FL resident.

Been watching 99L closely - quite nervous that this system will stay sneaky and quiet until its too close and too late. What day are we expecting the system to approach South Florida? What are the chances the system splits into two lows - one north of Hispaniola and one south?
Quoting 627. BahaHurican:

But instead of being a well-behaved rejected max that slinks off to a corner and quietly spins down, this one seems to be trying to steal the covers ....


Sounds like my wife.
Quoting 650. Heresince2005:

The INDY tornado IS SERIOUS. Nasty nasty signature. Lets hope damage is minimal

99L. I cautiously disagree with Levi. The HRWF showed this happening. I do not understand the degree of relaxation among posters here. This invest has very strong vorticty -- remember, most reliable models suggested cyclone formation 36 hours from now. The vorticity north of PR will become dominant IMO and be gathering strength by Thursday late night. I unfortunately think the models are downplaying the potential intensification in the Bahamas. 48 plus hours in that bathtub seems unlikely to produce only a tropical storm.

I think the GFS is overdoing the weakness. That ridge is rock solid IMO. Homestead to Naples should be watching very closely.

** Always follow the NHC guidelines. This is strictly opinion.

Yay someone who did not forget the models
Quoting 654. CybrTeddy:

NOAAHurricaneHunters ‏@NOAA_HurrHunter 52m52 minutes ago
#NOAA43 and the crew are preparing for a 0200L takeoff into #invest99. This will start a series of flights to improve the forecast models.
53 retweets 57 likes
Reply Retweet 53
Like



Probably a stupid question...but what exactly does that mean?
At this point, late in my day and getting ready to sign-off, I think that it is safe to say that the Antilles are getting plenty of rain and that we will not know until Friday what the potential outcome will be for Conus; very complex situation out there at the moment between 99L and potential interaction with the system to the North.




Everyone have a safe weather evening for now, hopefully the Indy situation will not take lives, and buckle up for the next few days in the Antilles, Bahamas, and Hurricane Alley in Conus.
Quoting 649. kmanislander:

Vort increasing on the eastern tip of the DR heading, dare I say it, towards the WEST !!!

If 99L spits out two systems that would be something for the books LOL.


CMC shows some energy heading west from 99L.
675. IDTH
Quoting 650. Heresince2005:

The INDY tornado IS SERIOUS. Nasty nasty signature. Lets hope damage is minimal

99L. I cautiously disagree with Levi. The HRWF showed this happening. I do not understand the degree of relaxation among posters here. This invest has very strong vorticty -- remember, most reliable models suggested cyclone formation 36 hours from now. The vorticity north of PR will become dominant IMO and be gathering strength by Thursday late night. I unfortunately think the models are downplaying the potential intensification in the Bahamas. 48 plus hours in that bathtub seems unlikely to produce only a tropical storm.

I think the GFS is overdoing the weakness. That ridge is rock solid IMO. Homestead to Naples should be watching very closely.

** Always follow the NHC guidelines. This is strictly opinion.

I agree about the strong vorticity which is why I'm worried about a weak system approaching the Bahamas with all that heat content and possibly much less shear.

Frustration is at an all time high here at the blog. Forecast's like this are why track can be almost as uncertain as intensity.
Quoting 650. Heresince2005:

The INDY tornado IS SERIOUS. Nasty nasty signature. Lets hope damage is minimal

99L. I cautiously disagree with Levi. The HRWF showed this happening. I do not understand the degree of relaxation among posters here. This invest has very strong vorticty -- remember, most reliable models suggested cyclone formation 36 hours from now. The vorticity north of PR will become dominant IMO and be gathering strength by Thursday late night. I unfortunately think the models are downplaying the potential intensification in the Bahamas. 48 plus hours in that bathtub seems unlikely to produce only a tropical storm.

I think the GFS is overdoing the weakness. That ridge is rock solid IMO. Homestead to Naples should be watching very closely.

** Always follow the NHC guidelines. This is strictly opinion.
Dunno about that... most of the INTENSITY forecast models are bringing 99L from this mess we have now to near or above cat 2 by 72 hours .... glad to see more HHers missions; we really can't wait until this "gets itself together" to figure out what's going on....
Quoting 664. IDTH:


Absolutely not. I do not wish destruction upon anyone.

I know just how bad the potential is with this storm, what I find unnerving is the confusion and uncertainty with this forecast. Anything could happen at this point especially when we don't have a COC to track. The models have flipped and flopped all over the place, even Gaston's track is uncertain now. The issue I have is if this consolidates quickly right before a landfall, people won't be ready. That's why this is system and it's forecast is frustrating for not just forecasters but those who live along the coastal areas or are planning flights there.

Keep, I don't wish cast but if I lived across the coast, I'd at least would want to know earlier whether a storm will threaten land as a significant storm or not. The fact it's taking longer means it could take many by surprise or it may not develop at all. That's why I'm frustrated by how difficult of a forecast this has become.

Hopefully we will have a center by landfall...if there is one. Worst case scenario, individual offices of the NWS will need to post watches and warnings without a named system, like the last storm and Jamaica.
30 dropsondes into the 18Z GFS, assuming they are from the Global Hawk out over Gaston.


John Morales of NBC6 is the only TV Met that actually speaks like a meterologist. Very refreshing.
Live Tv coverage of the Indy tornado
Link
Cariboy didn't get his Cat 5 so I guess this storm was already a bust :P
Quoting 665. SavannahStorm:

The ghost of Fiona is showing signs of life...


Hmmm. ... Zombie Fiona ..... looks to be using the front as a straw to sip moisture from our area ....

Curiouser and curiouser .....
Quoting 679. MiamiHurricanes09:

John Morales of NBC6 is the only TV Met that actually speaks like a meterologist. Very refreshing.
but is also the Meteorologist who said that Hurricane Katrina would not affect the Miami Area and it would go to the north of us and loom what happened, to him nothing ever comes . i get concerned when Max Mayfield from local 10 starts sounding the alarm and he has been doing that for days
Hope your vibe is spot on. I am still wicked uneasy. Uncertainty is a killer for me. If conditions were deteriorating along the 3 day projected path I think I'd feel better.

Quoting 658. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

great isn't it I am very happy to be honest my bad vibe has settle down some too
just a thought, would the fact that Fiona is back in the picture help 99L out? could it pull moisture from her and then get going? i know they are a good distance apart, but the way this system has gone...nothing would surprise me anymore...if it was to split, maybe that was what some of the models were showing with 2 lows in the GOM....i'm just grasping at straws right now everyone....continue please...
Quoting 665. SavannahStorm:

The ghost of Fiona is showing signs of life...




Could the north portion of 99L join forces with Ex fiona?
Quoting 678. nrtiwlnvragn:

30 dropsondes into the 18Z GFS, assuming they are from the Global Hawk out over Gaston.



Excited for the incoming disappointment when it depicts the exact same result as every other run.
Quoting 683. Seflhurricane:

but is also the Meteorologist who said that Hurricane Katrina would not affect the Miami Area and it would go to the north of us and loom what happened, to him nothing ever comes . i get concerned when Max Mayfield from local 10 starts sounding the alarm and he has been doing that for days
Lol I was a little too young to remember that forecast. :) But it's nice when a meterologist speaks to us as if we're not stupid.
689. IDTH
Quoting 665. SavannahStorm:

The ghost of Fiona is showing signs of life...



I'm ready to call it a day, this is just becoming not just confusing but downright befuddling at this point.

I need to take a break, I think I'm going to go swim.
Need some help guys/gals... Been a while since I have used my GRLevel3 and for whatever reason my polling station has been erased. Can anyone help me out with a free polling station site.

THanks in advance
Quoting 688. MiamiHurricanes09:

Lol I was a little too young to remember that forecast. :) But it's nice when a meterologist speaks to us as if we're not stupid.
thats true , but for too many years i have seen pathetic disturbances blowing up right over the bahamas
If my calculations are correct the LLC (swirl) north of PR has moved about one degree in 2.5 to 3 hours. A degree is roughly 70 miles, which means that the low level swirl is moving at between 23mph and 28mph. That is WAY too fast to allow for any type of thunderstorm consolidation around it. It will outrun the convection each time a burst of storms fires up near it. If 99L is to start to develop, it needs to slow down to less than 20mph. I thought it was supposed to slow down as it approached the Bahamas. Isn't that what the models showed?
NASA mission to Gaston
Link
The circulation of 99l looks terrible. Ex-Fiona looks better.
Quoting 668. juracanpr1:

NHC should low the chances 0 % at short term and even the long term (IMO)
Not really.
Quoting 678. nrtiwlnvragn:

30 dropsondes into the 18Z GFS, assuming they are from the Global Hawk out over Gaston.



This will be useful for tracking 99L and [shudder] ex-Fiona as well ....
Things are getting interesting just north of the Mona Passage, vorticity is increasing and convection is also increasing to me looks like 99L is going to get cranking neat the Turks and Caicos
Many of the reliable models haven't been developing anything until 99L is north of PR and DR so maybe they have been right all along and we just have to wait till it clears those islands for it to get its act together. Or it could could completely dissipate or it could split in 2? Just some more watching and waiting.
Last Hurricane to hit Florida, 2005. The year we moved to TX. Moved back to FL a few months ago. Sorry folks. Probably my fault. At least we are 60 miles inland this time. Back to watching the tropics. I only did that in TX because I worked for FEMA. Filled up the truck today, gas jumped a dime over night. Got some more water and already have several weeks of survival food. We know now to prepare and we hope we never have to use this stuff. In 05 we got hit by. Charlie, Frances and Jean. It wasn't fun.
We need a COC so the models will firm up and give us some direction.

Just read this ridiculous thing from one of those hurricane tracker Facebook pages. Posted at 3:00 eastern

* #Caribbean: Tropical Storm #Hermine (45 mph)

- DoctorAdvice4u has declared Tropical Storm Hermine has formed (45 mph) moving to the west-northwest at 14 mph. Due to not findiing a closed center of circulation, "Hermine" has not been officially designated been as a Tropical Storm by the Hurricane Center in Miami. However, reconnaissance flights are measuring winds in the moderate tropical storm range of 50-60 mph (see image below).

- Regardless of official recognition of Tropical Storm Hermine, people/friends in #PuertoRico, #Haiti, and the #DominicanRepublic, prepare for tropical storm conditions inclusive of tropical squalls, tropical storm force winds (40-50 mph), flash flooding, and a landslide threat, August 24-26, from a east to west trajectory.

------------------------------------------------- ------

* Blogs/Maps/Satellites/Radar/Updates 24/7...click

1) DoctorAdvice4u (http://www.DoctorAdvice4u.com)

and

2) "Hurricane, Typhoon, and Cyclone Global Alerts" page:
https://www.facebook.com/HurricaneTyphoonCyclone- Alerts-640446339341581/?rc=p

-------------------------

* Image Credit: Steve Copertino
Quoting 674. unknowncomic:

CMC shows some energy heading west from 99L.


Really does look like it.
Things really seem to be getting a bit more active now.
We mustn't forget, too, that all big storms do not start in the Atlantic.
That moisture moving across FL into the GOM and the projected possibility that 99L could move into a potential position for the same remind me of the threat of GOM-born storms.
I am done.....Fiona is back, Gaston is taking forever, and who the heck knows with 99L...I have to go to Church and I don't think my brain can take too much more information XD
West of 70W is greener pastures for 99L. Don't sleep on this system yet.
Quoting 562. juracanpr1:


It may get ripped apart soon . Shear is too high. Also, dry air intrusion (albeit the immediate surrounding is relatively humid)

Shear is forecast to lessen once its in the Bahamas area as long as it doesn't get completely destroyed it should develop there
706. IDTH
Quoting 699. Sharkicane:

Just read this ridiculous thing from one of those hurricane tracker Facebook pages. Posted at 3:00 eastern

* #Caribbean: Tropical Storm #Hermine (45 mph)

- DoctorAdvice4u has declared Tropical Storm Hermine has formed (45 mph) moving to the west-northwest at 14 mph. Due to not findiing a closed center of circulation, "Hermine" has not been officially designated been as a Tropical Storm by the Hurricane Center in Miami. However, reconnaissance flights are measuring winds in the moderate tropical storm range of 50-60 mph (see image below).

- Regardless of official recognition of Tropical Storm Hermine, people/friends in #PuertoRico, #Haiti, and the #DominicanRepublic, prepare for tropical storm conditions inclusive of tropical squalls, tropical storm force winds (40-50 mph), flash flooding, and a landslide threat, August 24-26, from a east to west trajectory.

------------------------------------------------- ------

* Blogs/Maps/Satellites/Radar/Updates 24/7...click

1) DoctorAdvice4u (http://www.DoctorAdvice4u.com)

and

2) "Hurricane, Typhoon, and Cyclone Global Alerts" page:
https://www.facebook.com/HurricaneTyphoonCyclone- Alerts-640446339341581/?rc=p

-------------------------

* Image Credit: Steve Copertino


I remember when Levi got a comment by one of those guys about his Isaac forecast on facebook and then two years later they dropped the bomb with Cristobal. I laughed because they gave him so much crap for think Isaac was going to take a Irene path.

These people shouldn't be forecasting, they shouldn't even be on Facebook.
Quoting 612. AldreteMichael:



Uhh. What's going on with 99L? It's splitting in two?


Could be interesting if one tracks faster & more to the West or GOM while the other tracks NW & more slowly up the eastern seaboard.
Hurricane Gumbo anyone? Who knows what is going to come out of this roux?
Quoting 706. IDTH:


I remember when Levi got a comment by one of those guys about his Isaac forecast on facebook and then two years later they dropped the bomb with Cristobal. I laughed because they gave him so much crap for think Isaac was going to take a Irene path.

These people shouldn't be forecasting, they shouldn't even be on Facebook.


Maybe you should send them Hillary's "Delete your Account" tweet she did to Trump.... That would be hilarious.

99 looking very disorganized but that is what was predicted by the models that made anything of this. won't get its act together probably for another day or two. interested when it does develop where the models predict it will go. best case scenario is it staying in Florida, if this thing gets into the gulf... bad news bears. That thing will blow up, the water is just rediclously warm... Bath tub stuff.
I see an LLC(swirl) from 99L at just south of 20N and about 66W moving WNW.
going to wait till the Great And Powerful Levi Cowan has his update.
Quoting 708. nola70119:

Hurricane Gumbo anyone? Who knows what is going to come out of this roux?


I'm thinking more of a shrimp creole. Shrimp vortexes everywhere!


Quoting 668. juracanpr1:

NHC should low the chances 0 % at short term and even the long term (IMO)


You must have forgotten that nearly ALL, not some, not a few, but ALL forecast models do not have this developing until it is near the Bahamas right? You do get that, right?

Not even close to 0% chance, you obviously lack patience.
Quoting 711. masiello3:

99 looking very disorganized but that is what was predicted by the models that made anything of this. won't get its act together probably for another day or two. interested when it does develop where the models predict it will go. best case scenario is it staying in Florida, if this thing gets into the gulf... bad news bears. That thing will blow up, the water is just rediclously warm... Bath tub stuff.


I feel some on here are forgetting that the forecast models did not forecast 99L to develop today or even tomorrow.
Quoting 704. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




You know, I would think it is within the margin of error for that thing to possibly go up to the West of the So. tip of FL rather than to the right, or East side of FL. If it happens to go west, might we be talking about an entirely different scenario?
718. IDTH
Quoting 716. Hurricanes101:



I feel some on here are forgetting that the forecast models did not forecast 99L to develop today or even tomorrow.

I did not forget, it just seems like the track keeps becoming more uncertain each run.

Anyway I'll be back around 7 or so.
Quoting 643. SavannahStorm:

Not weather related, but very cool nonetheless...

An Earth-like planet has been discovered orbiting Proxima Centauri, our Solar System's next-door neighbor.

It is within the "Goldilocks Zone" necessary for life, and an unmanned mission could visit it within the lifetimes of people living today.


And I wonder if there are hurricanes roaming their oceans during their Summer? I just make it weather related lol.
Quoting 708. nola70119:

Hurricane Gumbo anyone? Who knows what is going to come out of this roux?


"Gumbo"?? -- Maybe you be talkin dare 'bout dis storm goin up to de Louisiana way?
After all dat rain, dat might be de last ting dey be wantin over dere.
Waiting on 99L to get a name...
Quoting 711. masiello3:

99 looking very disorganized but that is what was predicted by the models that made anything of this. won't get its act together probably for another day or two. interested when it does develop where the models predict it will go. best case scenario is it staying in Florida, if this thing gets into the gulf... bad news bears. That thing will blow up, the water is just rediclously warm... Bath tub stuff.


- But don't such beasts tend to like to be drawn into that sort of atmosphere?
- Seems like it anyway.
724. bwi
Starting to see a few bloblets of convection near 18n and 19n at about 65w. That's a key area to watch I think if 99l is to pull itself together.

Quoting 722. washingtonian115:

Waiting on 99L to get a name...


Best post of the day....................Goodnight.
Is fluffy,


Last Hurricane to hit Florida, 2005. The year we moved to TX. Moved back to FL a few months ago. Sorry folks. Probably my fault. At least we are 60 miles inland this time. Back to watching the tropics. I only did that in TX because I worked for FEMA. Filled up the truck today, gas jumped a dime over night. Got some more water and already have several weeks of survival food. We know now to prepare and we hope we never have to use this stuff. In 05 we got hit by. Charlie, Frances and Jean. It wasn't fun.
We need a COC so the models will firm up and give us some direction.

Max Mayfield has been on the air about 99L? We don't get that station in PBC. He has always been a favorite

Quoting 683. Seflhurricane:

but is also the Meteorologist who said that Hurricane Katrina would not affect the Miami Area and it would go to the north of us and loom what happened, to him nothing ever comes . i get concerned when Max Mayfield from local 10 starts sounding the alarm and he has been doing that for days
Quoting 715. Hurricanes101:



You must have forgotten that nearly ALL, not some, not a few, but ALL forecast models do not have this developing until it is near the Bahamas right? You do get that, right?

Not even close to 0% chance, you obviously lack patience.

He has been going on about this since the invest was called...
Quoting 726. Patrap:

Is fluffy,





Ah, but is it two fluffy...or simply fluffy? :)
Quoting 719. weatherbro:



And I wonder if there are hurricanes roaming their oceans during their Summer? lol


Most likely, and I'd give even odds on it trending west,by nesweadterly toward the..... ?

🎑
Quoting 712. unknowncomic:

I see an LLC(swirl) from 99L at just south of 20N and about 66W moving WNW.


That seems to be the predominant LLC. It just needs to get out of that sheared environment to consolidate and blow up some convection around itself, otherwise the MLC will try to take over again.

Quoting 726. Patrap:

Is fluffy,



Quoting 730. WalkingInTheSun:



Ah, but is it two fluffy...or simply fluffy? :)
one fluffy, second fluffy probably will be dead by tonight...
734. bwi
Quoting 712. unknowncomic:

I see an LLC(swirl) from 99L at just south of 20N and about 66W moving WNW.


I see your swirl and that might be an interesting focus point to watch. A teensy bit of sheared convection to the south and east of there.
Quoting 719. weatherbro:



And I wonder if there are hurricanes roaming their oceans during their Summer? lol


Sorry to continue this OT discussion, but the planet would be tidally locked (meaning one side always faces Proxima, just like how one side of the Moon always faces Earth) with an orbital period of 11.2 days, so the Coriolis Effect would be less than Earth's. I've seen studies though that suggest a quasi-permanent ultra-doom hurricane may exist on the day-side on an "Earth twin", which is another mark against the possibilities of habitability for planets that orbit Red Dwarfs like Proxima Centauri.

Back to 99L.
Looks as if the spun NE of PR is winning the vort wars. I never cease to be amazed by these systems. Each one seems to have its own "personality." So interesting and educational. The DR vort max is enjoying a bit of shade from diurnal convection, we will have to wait and see if the NE one can have a good dmax.
Quoting 642. 69Viking:

I think once she lifts North of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola she'll pull herself back together and start to strengthen. She might start that as early as later tonight.

100% in agreement with your statement
Quoting 713. victoria780:

going to wait till the Great And Powerful Levi Cowan has his update.



Thats easy, all interests from the SE to the Gulf Coast need to closely monitor this
Quoting 721. WalkingInTheSun:



"Gumbo"?? -- Maybe you be talkin dare 'bout dis storm goin up to de Louisiana way?
After all dat rain, dat might be de last ting dey be wantin over dere.


Its a huge cluster-fbomb at the moment....
Don't hang your hat on it, but I think it's St. Maarten. Sorry to be picky.
Quoting 730. WalkingInTheSun:



Ah, but is it two fluffy...or simply fluffy? :)


Stay tuned to dis Bat channel...
GFS running, if anyone still cares lol
Let's see what this fancy GFS run has in store...
Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 12m12 minutes ago
Very quietly, tropical low may develop near TX coast in 4-5 days associated w/ active dynamics aloft. Rain at least.
Quoting 741. win1gamegiantsplease:

GFS running, if anyone still cares lol


Eh, I think we all know it's going to show absolutely nothing at this point.
I think it's clear Florida will continue it's hurricane free streak for a little longer, there is very little chance at this point, considering how disorganized 99L is currently, it will be anything more than a tropical storm when/if it hits south Florida.
Where can one look at the current steering maps....tia
Sharp wave axis 36 hours out, just north of the easternmost tip of Cuba.
I'm new to all this but can someone explain to me what Oz, 06z, 12z, and18z mean?
look what I found a naked coc arrows point too it

There is obviously a "windshield wiper affect " going on with the models as they always do. And when a COC is defined ...only then we will get a defined track AND better idea of the future intensity of this Atlantic system!
if you look closely at the current satellite feed, you will see that a center of circulation is trying to form just north of San Juan
Quoting 749. masiello3:

I'm new to all this but can someone explain to me what Oz, 06z, 12z, and18z mean?
time of model runs in Zulu
Quoting 707. WalkingInTheSun:



Could be interesting if one tracks faster & more to the West or GOM while the other tracks NW & more slowly up the eastern seaboard.


Looks like the tale of two lows. The llc seems as if it is being spit out while the mlc chugs along west.


Shear map...
The strength of the ridge over the Carolinas later this week should determine where 99L ultimately heads. Models have been biased in breaking down the ridge too quickly in past years and especially this summer--trust me, I've sweat more than is healthy because of it. If the ridge maintains, the storm would likely follow a track into the central Gulf Coast as most 12z EPS members indicate (they were west of the operational run). If the ridge were to actually break down sooner (maybe Gaston plays a part?), a path over Florida or just offshore the west coast would be more likely. At any rate, I have a hard time buying GFS' track up the East Coast of Florida. We'll see though.
Quoting 643. SavannahStorm:

Not weather related, but very cool nonetheless...

An Earth-like planet has been discovered orbiting Proxima Centauri, our Solar System's next-door neighbor.

It is within the "Goldilocks Zone" necessary for life, and an unmanned mission could visit it within the lifetimes of people living today.

Interesting, but as for any mission within our lifetimes: not likely. Another report appeared today based on computations of the erosive effect of the tinieest dust particles on any probe sent at the necessary ultrahigh, "near" light speed. There would be little left of any probe by the time it got to Proxima Centauri. Anything sent at slower speeds would definitely last longer than any current lifetimes, and would have to be completely robotic since the communications time-distances would make any ground control impractical. And there would also exist innumerable collision and radiational hazards. Add shielding, and you immediately add energy requirements.
Quoting 749. masiello3:

I'm new to all this but can someone explain to me what Oz, 06z, 12z, and18z mean?


The Current time using the Zulu Time Zone for midnight, 6:00 AM, noon, and 6:00 PM

It's currently 21:45 z
Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery loop

Click image for loop

Quoting 743. AtHomeInTX:

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 12m12 minutes ago
Very quietly, tropical low may develop near TX coast in 4-5 days associated w/ active dynamics aloft. Rain at least.


Did he happen to say what part? Thanks!
As if things weren't already complex enough. oh man...

Quoting 743. AtHomeInTX:

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 12m12 minutes ago
Very quietly, tropical low may develop near TX coast in 4-5 days associated w/ active dynamics aloft. Rain at least.
Quoting 750. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

look what I found a naked coc arrows point too it




That is 99L telling us she is still alive in there. Just in a coma. Keep her in your prayers. Don't unplug life support yet.
Quoting 745. pipelines:

I think it's clear Florida will continue it's hurricane free streak for a little longer, there is very little chance at this point, considering how disorganized 99L is currently, it will be anything more than a tropical storm when/if it hits south Florida.


I agree
Interesting from surface winds, there's a fairly strong low over DR right now, while at 500mb circulation is taking place just past Guadeloupe.
Probably the forward motion is too rapid and at the moment thunderstorms are popping up at various locations around the general larger circulation.

A bit messy, but very dangerous looking.
765. Tcwx2
I want to agree but I can't. I think that at landfall on the east coast of FL it would be a moderate-strong tropical storm, but I wouldn't rule out a hurricane landfall on the FL Panhandle.
Quoting 745. pipelines:

I think it's clear Florida will continue it's hurricane free streak for a little longer, there is very little chance at this point, considering how disorganized 99L is currently, it will be anything more than a tropical storm when/if it hits south Florida.
Yeah, just like TD10 in 2005

Quoting 745. pipelines:

I think it's clear Florida will continue it's hurricane free streak for a little longer, there is very little chance at this point, considering how disorganized 99L is currently, it will be anything more than a tropical storm when/if it hits south Florida.
Quoting 756. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The strength of the ridge over the Carolinas later this week should determine where 99L ultimately heads. Models have been biased in breaking down the ridge too quickly in past years and especially this summer--trust me, I've sweat more than is healthy because of it. If the ridge maintains, the storm would likely follow a track into the central Gulf Coast as most 12z EPS members indicate (they were west of the operational run). If the ridge were to actually break down sooner, a path over Florida or just offshore would be more likely. At any rate, I have a hard time buying GFS' track up the East Coast of Florida. We'll see though.


There may not be anything left to track up any coast of FL. Time will tell.
imho on 99l.  LLC is just north of PR and only has a few more hours until it is clear of the strong shear. Then it will develop not rapidly at first but steadily . Look at all the moister ahead of it . This is far from over. Heck last year ya all woulda been excited to even have an invest like this. 
99L in stealth mode.

Expect the unexpected.

Lotsa mojo out there. 🌎
Next up in the Eastern Pacific: Lester.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132016
300 PM MDT WED AUG 24 2016

Geostationary satellite imagery indicates that the area of low
pressure located well southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, now has a
well-defined center and enough convective organization to be
considered a tropical cyclone.

What time of night is Dmin for 99L?
Midnight, 6 am, noon, 6 pm UTC/GMT.
Quoting 749. masiello3:

I'm new to all this but can someone explain to me what Oz, 06z, 12z, and18z mean?
Just catching up on everything and...

99L is a mess - but I don't see why you would expect any less. Most models were showing it to be a mess until it reached the Bahamas area. It has managed to organise more over the last day though in terms of voticity and wind speed. Once shear relaxes it'll have a much easier time getting itself together. What's interesting is that part of the vort is stretched over DR. Could be a good thing as DR could kill that part of the vort and help focus energy towards the strongest voriticty to consolidate properly. Should see it spark off once again tonight as it has done the last few. Just a reminder, this situation is much different than Erika - Erika reolocated it center much further south and was under 30kts+ of wind shear (as Washi has been tryiing to tell you all). SSTs are higher as well than when Erika was around so there's more potential here than there was with Erika.

Gaston - looking good despite the wind shear to its north. Plane data has found it to be a bit stronger - could be upgraded to a hurricane anytime now, it's very close.

Lionrock - Going to hit Japan hard it seems :(
Quoting 758. HadesGodWyvern:



The Current time using the Zulu Time Zone for midnight, 6:00 AM, noon, and 6:00 PM

It's currently 21:45 z

Formerly and more familiarly known as Greenwich Time.
In memory of Hurricane Andrew, here is a video Called Hurricane Andrew: As it Happened Link

Quoting 761. HaoleboySurfEC:

As if things weren't already complex enough. oh man...Checked local forcast predicting 1-3inches of rain for the middle Texas coast monday and tuesday.Very Interesting





Banding and a developing CDO: this should be declared a tropical storm shortly.
Quoting 760. KodiakMan4x4:



Did he happen to say what part? Thanks!


Seems to move into southern Texas

Quoting 771. Autistic2:

What time of night is Dmin for 99L?
now dmax just before sunrise
I can't even with the blog right now. NHC still says this has a high chance of developing. So, why is there such low confidence here? I know this is common, but this a little more so than the usual. It was never expected to develop today anyhow.
Quoting 772. Patrap:




If it goes right over Hispaniola, wonder how the ecmwf gets treated in a few days
Quoting 762. Sharkicane:



That is 99L telling us she is still alive in there. Just in a coma. Keep her in your prayers. Don't unplug life support yet.


Just like the song goes "everything gets hotter when the sun goes down." We are in the diurnal minimum right now, so we can't expect too much at this point. But as sun sets, should begin to see thunderstorm activity begin to increase as we head toward diurnal maximum in the pre-dawn hours.
Once again, GFS does nothing with 99L.
Quoting 759. Patrap:

Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery loop

Click image for loop




could you call that an eye? it's there in almost every frame. if you were under that pinhole, you'd see a perfectly circular layer of low cumulus.
And pooof that was such a tease.shame on the media getting us into a frenzy.
Quoting 783. win1gamegiantsplease:



If it goes right over Hispaniola, wonder how the ecmwf gets treated in a few days


Its already going north of PR, I think the chances of the surface low going over Hispaniola is not likely
nail-biter
Quoting 735. CybrTeddy:



Sorry to continue this OT discussion, but the planet would be tidally locked (meaning one side always faces Proxima, just like how one side of the Moon always faces Earth) with an orbital period of 11.2 days, so the Coriolis Effect would be a lot smaller than Earth's. I've seen studies though that suggest a quasi-permanent ultra-doom hurricane may exist on the day-side on an "Earth twin", which is another mark against the possibilities of habitability for planets that orbit Red Dwarfs like Proxima Centauri.

Back to 99L.


Your right. The fact that it's star is a red dwarf escaped me lol. But even with the planet tidally locked with a supercane on it's day side, the greenhouse effect could keep the night side within tolerable range and landmasses well away from the storm would be fine I'd imagine. On another note, if the planet is indeed habitable like Earth, scientists say it's foliage would be black.
Quoting 761. HaoleboySurfEC:

As if things weren't already complex enough. oh man...




Was exactly my thought.
793. 7544
99l likes the night time hours so watch at 10 pm onward see what happens i expect it will be a red ball again just like last night imo
Quoting 755. yankees440:



Shear map...

99L is currently over the highest shear its been facing (20-40 kts) but look at where its headed only 5-15kts there
Central Texas Coast synopsis.
Forecast certainty 
then quickly lowers for the remainder of the forecast period as
guidance continues to fly all over the place with synoptic output.
Variety of scenarios are possible for the weekend and next
week...and is strongly contingent upon upper air pattern and
eventual evolution of 99l currently near the northern Leeward
Islands. 12z European model (ecmwf) develops a strong TUTT low and meanders it along
the mid Texas coast for several days...resulting in periods of showers
and thunderstorms...and eventually some surface troughing. This
output seems rather unprobable at this time. NAM develops a tropical
system across the northwest Gulf and shifts it towards southeast Texas...which also
seems realistic...while the GFS takes a TUTT low westward.
Overall...I think we should see a few showers and thunderstorms each
day across the eastern 2/3 of S Texas given expected weakness in the
ridge and surges of moisture pushing across the region. Showed a
drying trend for early next week and a gradual increase in
seas/swells and temps to account for possible tropical activity
across the East Gulf. Significant changes to all weather elements in
future forecasts are possible over the next several days once better
tropical evolution is better realized.
About 1.5 Hours til next HH flight
797. IKE
Quoting 785. MiamiHurricanes09:

Once again, GFS does nothing with 99L.

And Gaston is weakened considerably.
GFS has gone back to a similar run to last night with a trip over Hispaniola and a weak system to Florida.
right here, a mini eye!

Quoting 758. HadesGodWyvern:



The Current time using the Zulu Time Zone for midnight, 6:00 AM, noon, and 6:00 PM

It's currently 21:45 z


Probably should have just explaned it as military time. Midnight being 0 hundred hour or 0z, 6am as 6z, 12pm as 12z, 6pm as 18z (1800hr) and back to zero again. I think most people are fimiliar with military time, I know my watch has got switched over more times then I can count lol..
99L already has T.S force winds and since it has a rather small circulation it wouldn't take much t cause this thing to ramp up.We saw this with Danny just last year in fact.
802. vis0
Mayammarr 6.8 Richter

The messy vorticity of 99L passes through the Florida Keys this run. Continues to have a different upper-level environment than the Euro, with no sign of the upper high that the latter has when the storm is in the western Bahamas.
Hermine's got some juice. Don't believe her little song and dance through the islands.

Those outer bands show the amount of energy and juice she has to work with. Watch them carefully - If those bands become explosive overnight, the size and scope of this storm could scale rapidly.. and that's what's been giving me indigestion since this morning.
By the way, Eric Blake from the NHC said what HH found last flight was that they had west winds they just couldnt find enough N, NE, or NW winds tight enough
753 - "'I've seen studies though that suggest a quasi-permanent ultra-doom hurricane may exist on the day-side on an "Earth twin","

imagine how nuts this site's 'blog twin' would be on that planet!
Quoting 665. SavannahStorm:

The ghost of Fiona is showing signs of life...


That's my girl :)
It's been a long time since we've had a system miss the islands (P.R, Hispaniola, Cuba) to the north and continue on to Florida/GOM.
It seems like every system some how finds its way to Hispaniola.
Need to keep watching, especially since the GFS has not been consistent at all.
In other news, Europe heatwave going on and today was the hottest day of the year in the UK, topping out at 33.9C in Kent (93F). Quite uncomfortable, but thunderstorms should start to spark off tonight and tomorrow which I can't wait for! Should be warm again this weekend, but looks like a lot of heavy rain for me as well. Really want autumn to kick in now.
Quoting 802. vis0:

Mayammarr 6.8 Richter




mmm.. Italy.. Myanmar (Burma).. where next mother nature.
One thing, could 99L be Ian and Ex-Fiona be Hermine?
Quoting 805. RockinghamRob:



Sorry, but nobody gives a flying &@?% about the boring EPac
But it makes pretty cyclones :)
Quoting 707. WalkingInTheSun:



Could be interesting if one tracks faster & more to the West or GOM while the other tracks NW & more slowly up the eastern seaboard.
Does that mean everybody's forecast verifies??? Say, everybody wins!!!

Right.

[Not saying your idea is bad; just that it suggests bad news for everybody....]
Quoting 726. Patrap:

Is fluffy,



Looks like a bit of Fujiwara action going on there ....
Wave axis is very prominent this evening with the exposed LLC up in the peak. Development was not expected until the Bahamas, an earlier development would have been a surprise to me anyway and others as posted.

My comment for the night.

For everyone who is saying 99l will become nothing it is way too soon in the game to say that. As we know all the forecast models did not have this developing until it got into the Bahamas because of the water being so warm in the Bahamas if there is any llc left when it gets there and because there won't be too much wind shear I would expect this not to have much trouble spinning up as of right now the next 24 to 36 hours will be key. Hope everyone has a good night!
Quoting 782. SecretStormNerd:

I can't even with the blog right now. NHC still says this has a high chance of developing. So, why is there such low confidence here? I know this is common, but this a little more so than the usual. It was never expected to develop today anyhow.


it has a good chance still
just got a little messed up today
this time tomorrow
could be the monster
we are expecting
but as always
we wait watch see
IMO the second circulation is about to run into Hispaniola which should allow the main low to take over and build up.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
As Dexter would say: "Tonight's the night."
Quoting 805. RockinghamRob:



Sorry, but nobody gives a flying &@?% about the boring EPac

EPac is great because steering is generally away from land (with exceptions from time to time obivously) so we can track lots of beautiful fishes.
Quoting 815. BahaHurican:

Does that mean everybody's forecast verifies??? Say, everybody wins!!!

Right.

[Not saying your idea is bad; just that it suggests bad news for everybody....]
Looks like a bit of Fujiwara action going on there ....



Is that a COC at 20' 66' ? If so it's moving far further north NW than expected..
825. vis0
Hermime as if a  bull huffing n puffing waiting for the front (gate) to open and then ...will the bull go wild? stay tuned for step by step cioverage by pros and and mostly well informed novices/beginners...stay aware
Not good how GFS and Euro agree on Gaston and all the African waves coming off but can't figure out one together close to home when it could really matter.
827. bwi
The swirl at 20 66 seems to me like the place to watch tonight...
The mods need to build a cookie that sits so deep in your pc that you'll need another computer just to log in if you troll. Anyway naked swirly can burp enough convection to cover itself in 30 minutes, which it will probably do tonight. Then probably get blown off tomorrow afternoon, and then blow up again Friday afternoon, and then probably stay that way for awhile.
Quoting 782. SecretStormNerd:

I can't even with the blog right now. NHC still says this has a high chance of developing. So, why is there such low confidence here? I know this is common, but this a little more so than the usual. It was never expected to develop today anyhow.


people get too excited it seems, and when the euro starting generating a double landfall with a powerful hurricane it was bound to start to get out of hand in here....always does....

you are right, the forecast was for slow development and the current shear from the high pressure to the north is expected to slide out of the way, allowing this to turn towards florida and consolidating is then expected over 80+ degree shallow seawater.....
The blog seems to have slowed down a lot this evening from the past few days.
Watch the area near 18N/69W could be a new LLC forming there

832. IDTH
Quoting 766. HaoleboySurfEC:

Yeah, just like TD10 in 2005



That's what worries me. People are not going to be ready for something like that.
too many little swirlies in that gyre. Wonder if we'll ever have just one.
Quoting 831. stormpetrol:

Watch the area near 18N/69W could be a new LLC forming there



Find Waldo?
As for as I'm concern, if the GFS says no and the Euro says yes, I say; 50/50 chance for or against development.