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Fiona May Fizzle; 99L is Set to Strengthen

By: Bob Henson 4:35 PM GMT on August 19, 2016

A less-than-impressive Tropical Storm Fiona continues to work its way across the central tropical Atlantic, while another system--Invest 99L—is drawing more interest from tropical weather watchers. It appears 99L could make a break for the Caribbean early next week, perhaps as a significant tropical cyclone (see below).

As of 11 am EDT Friday, Fiona was located at 17.8°N, 43.5°SW, or about 1300 miles west of the Cape Verdes, with top sustained winds holding at 45 mph. Fiona is moving west-northwest at about 10 mph and poses no threat to land. Never a massive storm, Fiona was looking rather spindly on satellite imagery Friday morning, with several fragmented bands feeding into a somewhat disheveled core of convection (showers and thunderstorms). Sea surface temperatures are more than adequate for development, at around 27°C (81°F)—about 0.5°C above the seasonal average—and the storm will be passing over progressively warmer waters. However, Fiona’s overall convective pattern has weakened over the last few hours, and it appears the decline will continue for the next day or two, as vertical wind shear increases to moderate levels (20-25 knots) and dry Saharan air works its way into the circulation (see Figure 2 below).


Figure 1. Latest visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Fiona.


Figure 2. A large mass of dry air from the Sahara Desert (yellows and reds) was encircling Tropical Storm Fiona, located near 45°W, as of 1200Z (8:00 am EDT) Friday, August 19, 2016. Invest 99L, centered to the southeast around 35°W, is expected to track well south of the Saharan air layer for at least the next couple of days. Image credit: University of Wisconsin-Madison/CIMMS/NOAA

The outlook for Fiona
Models are in near-unanimous agreement that Fiona will continue on its west-northwest track for the next 3 to 4 days, heading toward a weakness in the sprawling ridge that extends across the subtropical Atlantic. Uncertainty increases somewhat beyond that point, as there are signs that ridging will begin to fill in the weakness, slowing Fiona’s progress. Both dynamical and statistical models agree that Fiona should remain below hurricane strength throughout the next five days, and some members of the ECMWF and GFS ensembles bring Fiona back to depression status by this weekend or early next week. The National Hurricane Center expects Fiona to weaken into a tropical depression by Sunday.

Assuming that Fiona holds together as a tropical cyclone, it could end up linger around the latitude of 30°N for at least a day or two next week, perhaps longer. A belt of unusually warm SSTs is straddling that latitude, but if Fiona tarries too long in one area, it may churn up cooler waters that could have a weakening effect. Climatology would suggest that eventual recurvature toward the north and northeast remains the most likely destiny for Fiona, if it survives that long.

Keeping an eye on 99L
Located about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, 99L is a large but disorganized tropical wave, with a broad zone of scattered convection. The wave is located close to 10°-15°N and 30°W and is heading westward. 99L’s low latitude, and the lack of northward component to its motion, means that it is well positioned to head toward the Caribbean. An upper-level ridge to the northwest of 99L should keep it on a low-latitude path for the next several days, and models are in strong agreement that 99L will continue on its general westward trek, which could put it in the vicinity of the Lesser Antilles by around the middle of next week. The track forecast becomes more uncertain by that point, and it’s too soon to tell which parts of the island chain might be affected.

Wind shear is expected to remain fairly light along 99L’s path (10-15 knots), and SSTs should remain in the 28-29°C range over the next several days. Both of these factors favor development of 99L. In its 8 am EDT tropical weather discussion, NHC gave 99L only a 10% chance of development by Sunday, but a 50% chance by Wednesday. The discussion noted another wave coming off Africa over the weekend that has a 30% chance of development by Wednesday.


Figure 3. Infrared image of Invest 99L from 1145Z (7:45 am EDT) Friday, August 19, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.


Figure 4. Steering flow at the 200-mb level, about 40,000 feet above the surface, will help keep Invest 99L moving generally westward for the next several days. Wind speeds are colored in knots; multiply by 1.15 to obtain wind speed in mph. 99L and Fiona are indicated as low-pressure centers (“L”) around 30°W and 45°W, respectively. Image credit: tropicaltdibits.com.

Nearly all of the ECMWF and GFS ensemble members keep 99L below tropical storm strength for at least the next several days, with the GFS ensemble suggesting that 99L could intensify in the 4- to 5-day period. A word of caution, however: although the ECMWF and GFS are among the top-performing models for tropical cyclone track forecasts, they are much less skilled at predicting intensity, especially for periods less than 5 days. The best-performing model for intensity over the last several years has been the HWRF, as we discussed in our May post on hurricane intensity prediction. Both the 00Z and 06Z Friday runs of the HWRF model intensify 99L to tropical storm strength over the weekend and to hurricane strength as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday. The IVCN, a blend of several high-performing models, also projects that 99L could reach hurricane strength by early next week.

Climatology favors the development of long-track hurricanes in the deep tropical Atlantic during late August. Given the favorable conditions at hand, we will need to watch 99L very closely.


Figure 5. The latest WU hurricane tracking map shows a plethora of systems across the Northern Hemisphere tropics.

Elsewhere in the (busy) tropics
It’s looking a lot like late August across the northern tropics, with no fewer than seven systems showing up on WU’s hurricane tracking map on Friday morning (see Figure 5 above). Fortunately, none of the current systems were at hurricane/typhoon strength. In the East Pacific, Tropical Storm Kay, christened on Thursday, is paralleling the coast of Mexico several hundred miles south of Baja California. Only a minimal tropical storm, with 40-mph sustained winds, Kay has only a short window of potential modest strengthening before it moves over progressively cooler SSTs. The storm is expected to remain offshore as it gradually weakens.

Tropical Storm Dianmu made landfall on the far north coast of Vietnam around 06Z (2 am EDT) Friday morning. A giant burst of convection is dumping torrential rains on the mountains of northern Vietnam and Laos, and the heavy rains will spread into northern Thailand on Friday and Saturday. Rainfall amounts of up to 16 inches (400 mm) have been reported in parts of northern Vietnam, according to vietnamnet.vn. Further east, Tropical Storm Mindulle is about to accelerate northward while strengthening, which could bring it onto the coast of Japan’s Honshu island near Tokyo as a minimal hurricane by Monday.

Jeff Masters and I will be monitoring the tropics throughout the weekend. We’ll have our next update on Saturday.

Bob Henson


Figure 6. Infrared image of Tropical Storm Kay off the southwest coast of Mexico as of 1500Z (11 am EDT) Friday, August 19, 2016. Image credit: RAMMB/CIRA/CSU.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments




Euro strengthened this a little from 48 hrs to 72 hours so looks like it may be on board
This would mean all models almost on board including king Euro maybe
Quoting 996. swflurker:

That's why I like the early model tracks. Should miss us here in FL!




nope I think they will end up in Florida somehow
I'd say anywhere from Tampa to Pensacola would get it although it might end up missing somewhat maybe Mobile AL or Gulfport MS

Quoting 998. James1981cane:



Exactly like the new HWRF


hmm I'd same maybe similar

Quoting 999. James1981cane:



Me and you have been on the same page for days now


yeah I guess that is true


RED ALERT RED ALERT LOL EURO DEVELOPING THIS OFFICIALLY ON BOARD
Possible 90L might develop faster than 99L base on what I am seeing. It would be something if 90L becomes Gaston and 99L ends becoming Hermine but anything is possible.
Quoting 1001. James1981cane:




Euro strengthened this a little from 48 hrs to 72 hours so looks like it may be on board


yeah Euro is on board 96hrs it intensify

don't know if I buy the track but aleast Euro is on board now
Here we go i feel alot better now that the Euro is on board
Quoting 1004. James1981cane:



RED ALERT RED ALERT LOL EURO DEVELOPING THIS OFFICIALLY ON BOARD


lol don't get too excited

Quoting 1005. allancalderini:

Possible 90L might develop faster than 99L base on what I am seeing. It would be something if 90L becomes Gaston and 99L ends becoming Hermine but anything is possible.


nah I highly doubt that
Quoting 1006. wunderkidcayman:



yeah Euro is on board 96hrs it intensify

don't know if I buy the track but aleast Euro is on board now


Yep i feel so relieved that the Euro is on board now
Quoting 1008. wunderkidcayman:



lol don't get too excited



nah I highly doubt that


TIS THIS SEASON TO BE ACTIVE LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA
Quoting 1007. James1981cane:

Here we go i feel alot better now that the Euro is on board


kinda not really

I mean Euro was always on board but recent runs Euro just showed 99L as a weak system and an open wave rather than a closed low but it was still there Euro did show the wave had some sorta spin and pressures were lower than surrounding areas but just never developed it more than that
Quoting 1011. James1981cane:



TIS THIS SEASON TO BE ACTIVE LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA


lay off the caffeine, it is one model run. It and the GFS could easily drop it on their next run
Quoting 1008. wunderkidcayman:



lol don't get too excited



nah I highly doubt that

Hey WKC i know i was just trying to get the blog pumped up but i don't agree with the track Euro is showing but i will take development for now
Quoting 1013. Hurricanes101:



lay off the caffeine, it is one model run. It and the GFS could easily drop it on their next run


Just trying to cheer cariboy up lol
Quoting 1011. James1981cane:



TIS THIS SEASON TO BE ACTIVE LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA


yes but still chill out for all you know Euro could drop it again at 12Z run lol
Quoting 1014. James1981cane:


Hey WKC i know i was just trying to get the blog pumped up but i don't agree with the track Euro is showing but i will take development for now


yes I know although a bit late in the night to get the blog up and pumped

I agree I don't agree with Euro track but atleast it finally show something more than just a decent strong wave eh
The run isnt even over yet lol
Quoting 1018. Hurricanes101:

The run isnt even over yet lol

DOOM or GLOOM


Develops it shortly then weakens it its a start at least
Poof, gone at 144, lets see if it brings it back.
The Euro is on board for tropical cyclone genesis so its a start lets see if next run it drops it
Interesting the ECMWF is showing future 90L a much larger storm than 99L.
post from the blog "again"

A word of caution, however: although the ECMWF and GFS are among the top-performing models for tropical cyclone track forecasts, they are much less skilled at predicting intensity, especially for periods less than 5 days.

Bob Henson
1025. ackee
Quoting 1017. wunderkidcayman:



yes I know although a bit late in the night to get the blog up and pumped

I agree I don't agree with Euro track but atleast it finally show something more than just a decent strong wave eh agree
GFS and ECMWF somewhat agree on a track however.

1027. ackee
I think the Hwrf as been very consistent with track and intensity I would be surprised if it right and give the Euro time once it fully get on board we get a better idea where the system will go
Not good Euro shows Fiona tropical wave interacting with ex td 7 in Bahamas, similar to how Katrina formed.
Katrina dejau set up on Ecmwf .
Quoting 1027. ackee:

I think the Hwrf as been very consistent with track and intensity I would be surprised if it right and give the Euro time once it fully get on board we get a better idea where the system will go


HWRF has been trustworthy it is showing a path towards the GOM and Euro might drop this next run who knows
Quoting 1029. Camille33:

Katrina dejau set up on Ecmwf .


Not likely on this run lets wait for this to fully come on board
Looks like the Americans and the Europeans negotiated a deal on 99L with the Americans toning down its intensity and the Europeans bringing up the intensity. At least we are starting to see some consensus and you want to see it in the short range.

1033. docrod
99L ?

two aspirin - lime and coconut.

.. hope I'm right on this.
new data in
models on 99L have shifted W and slightly S

anyway I think models will continue to shift S and W
Quoting 1034. wunderkidcayman:

new data in
models on 99L have shifted W and slightly S

anyway I think models will continue to shift S and W


Yep i believe they will shift SW too
Quoting 1032. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Looks like the Americans and the Europeans negotiated a deal on 99L with the Americans toning down its intensity and the Europeans bringing up the intensity. At least we are starting to see some consensus and you want to see it in the short range.



LOL we signed a peace treaty
Can we toss this now? (06z should be interesting)...
The prefectures in bold appears to be landfalling regions going be the available tracks of the systems.

Japan Meteorological Agency
15:00 PM JST August 20 2016
=========================

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS

About 280 KM South Southeast Of Cape Shiono (Wakayama Prefecture)
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Lionrock (994 hPa) located at 31.3N 137.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 13 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
120 NM from the center in northern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 30.0N 133.4E - 50 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) East Southeast of Tanegashima (Kagoshima Prefecture)
48 HRS: 29.0N 132.3E - 55 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) Southeast of Tanegashima (Kagoshima Prefecture)
72 HRS: 27.8N 132.4E - 60 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) South of Japan

-------------------------------------------

In Sea East Of Japan
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Kompasu (994 hPa) located at 34.3N 145.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 21 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
210 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 41.9N 142.6E - 35 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) Southeast Of Tomakomai (Hokkaido Prefecture)
48 HRS: 49.3N 148.8E - Extratropical Low In Sea of ​​Okhotsk

--------------------------------

In Ogasawara Waters
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Mindulle (992 hPa) located at 22.1N 140.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 15 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
120 NM from the center in southern quadrant
90 NM from the center in northern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 29.2N 140.5E - 50 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) Northwest Of Chichi-jima (Ogasawara Islands)
48 HRS: 34.2N 138.4E - 50 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) South Southeast of Omaezaki (Shizuoka Prefecture)
72 HRS: 41.1N 141.6E - 40 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) Overland Northern Japan (Aomori Prefecture)
Good morning!
This is my first time posting but I pray that all folks stay aware and it is better to plan because you just never know. We are from ILM and have seen our share of storms, telling my age but back to Hazel. Just pick up a few extra grocery items each week, bottled water, just be prepared.
Thanks,
1041. LargoFl
we regret that tampa shields are currently down for maintenance, stay tuned for later updates. thank you
1043. LargoFl
Quoting 1042. Tampa969mlb:

we regret that tampa shields are currently down for maintenance, stay tuned for later updates. thank you
yeah if the GFS verifies somehow,we here may need those shields lol..aw we just prepare and wait this out.but end of August may get interesting huh
1044. LargoFl
Quoting 1040. Mbrown5254:

Good morning!
This is my first time posting but I pray that all folks stay aware and it is better to plan because you just never know. We are from ILM and have seen our share of storms, telling my age but back to Hazel. Just pick up a few extra grocery items each week, bottled water, just be prepared.
Thanks,

Hey welcome to the blog thanks for joining
Quoting 1043. LargoFl:

yeah if the GFS verifies somehow,we here may need those shields lol..aw we just prepare and wait this out.but end of August may get interesting huh


The GFS is trending west most likely to continue so don't get worried just yet

The NASA model develops this once in the southern gulf of mexico
Morning Wublers,
from 6am NHC Tropical Weather Discussion:
...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 05N35W to a 1009 mb low near 11N35W to 16N33W, moving W at 15 kt within the last 24 hours.

Intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust to the wave environment continue to limit the convection to scattered showers and isolated tstms from 05N-16N between 30W and 40W.

Any development of this system during the next couple of days should be slow to occur due to its proximity to dry air.

Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for development after that time, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week while the system moves westward across the tropical
Atlantic Ocean and into the eastern Caribbean Sea.
99L is looking anemic on Water Vapor this morning
largo your right, I've always wanted to see a storm, cat 1 would be ok, but I've seen biloxi, gulfport after katrina and that would suck.
Quoting 1049. Chicklit:

99L is looking anemic on Water Vapor this morning



It won't start to get its act together till it reaches 50 W i expect tomorrow it will start to shine maybe tonight
Good Morning. This is a good place to be for info on an approaching storm. Florence, SC here but a frequent visitor to Wrightsville.

By middle of next week we should have a better idea of what may happen.

Quoting 1040. Mbrown5254:

Good morning!
This is my first time posting but I pray that all folks stay aware and it is better to plan because you just never know. We are from ILM and have seen our share of storms, telling my age but back to Hazel. Just pick up a few extra grocery items each week, bottled water, just be prepared.
Thanks,
Gaston or Hermine?
Quoting 1055. Chicklit:

Gaston?


Yes most likely then invest 99L will develop next
Quoting 1052. Tampa969mlb:

largo your right, I've always wanted to see a storm, cat 1 would be ok, but I've seen biloxi, gulfport after katrina and that would suck.


Not coming to tampa lol to far out to know
Might beat out 99. Getting very interesting. Possibly 3 named storms in August. And that steering...

Quoting 1055. Chicklit:

Gaston?

Quoting 1056. James1981cane:


Yes most likely then invest 99L will develop next


I mean invets 90L or future 90L will be Gaston then invest 99L will be Hermine
earlybirds....good/morning
1061. LargoFl
Quoting 1052. Tampa969mlb:

largo your right, I've always wanted to see a storm, cat 1 would be ok, but I've seen biloxi, gulfport after katrina and that would suck.
yeah we have a week to watch this storm,and we have time to prepare if indeed it does come up the gulf coast.
Euro showed some signs of development with 99L overnight but the GFS is coming in very weak with 99L compared to previous runs.
Quoting 1061. LargoFl:

yeah we have a week to watch this storm,and we have time to prepare if indeed it does come up the gulf coast.


It should enter the Gulf so watch this but i wouldn't be too worried yet
I not buying the 06Z GFS

Shows 99L barely developing and still lifting WNW-NW out of the E Caribbean then reorganises it N of Hispaniola and moves it W-WNW towards FL straits

I say na

I'm definitely not buy this run I'll discount it and throw it out awaiting on next run

Anyway as I said models flipping and flopping

Can't wait for RECON mission for 99L in a few days
That would put the models in a much better position
second time the gfs long range had 99 going right up biscayne bay blvd.
Quoting 1062. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Euro showed some signs of development with 99L overnight but the GFS is coming in very weak with 99L compared to previous runs.


Hey at least the Euro is on board for a tropical depression its a working progress the americans i guess signed a peace treaty with the Europeans to agree on this lol
Quoting 1059. James1981cane:



I mean invets 90L or future 90L will be Gaston then invest 99L will be Hermine


Nah I am not buying the idea for PRE-90L
I don't think it will develop much maybe to an invest maybe TD in the long run possibly a weak TS in the even longer run

Quoting 1064. wunderkidcayman:

I not buying the 06Z GFS

Shows 99L barely developing and still lifting WNW-NW out of the E Caribbean then reorganises it N of Hispaniola and moves it W-WNW towards FL straits

I say na

I'm definitely not buy this run I'll discount it and throw it out awaiting on next run

Anyway as I said models flipping and flopping

Can't wait for RECON mission for 99L in a few days
That would put the models in a much better position


Yes we need recon and GFS slightly south this might be a louisiana hit in this run likely to change could go over the caymen islands even so i would watch this WKC


Farther south this run models keep trending south
This GFS run shows the high forcing 99L or Gaston on a due west path once in the GOM so this could get intersting
might need to watch the tail end of the stalled out front off the south eastern shoreline
1072. LargoFl
yes GFS continues to put 99 up the gulf coast,but 6Z GFS now has it at TS force winds..
Quoting 1072. LargoFl:

yes GFS continues to put 99 up the gulf coast,but 6Z GFS now has it at TS force winds..


Looking more and more likely that it will be a gulf storm models suggest it will be
Quoting 1068. James1981cane:



Yes we need recon and GFS slightly south this might be a louisiana hit in this run likely to change could go over the caymen islands even so i would watch this WKC


Well I wouldn't go that far at this time

I'm thinking it stays in the Caribbean for most of its time maybe crosses further W like Haiti E Cuba then through FL Straits I still think landfall in gulf states would be Western Florida or maybe MS or AL but leaning more to FL

I think it would be much stronger than what current 06Z GFS shows

If it does move just N of Cuba going through FL Straits I'd say strengthening TS maybe hurricane in the E GOM

But let's just explore your idea for a min if it does stay in the Caribbean and get in the NW Caribbean then hits W tip of Cuba then into E GOM it would be moving over the extremely high heat potential/oceanic heat content and we could see it explode into decent hurricane in the NW Caribbean and it could get nasty in the GOM
Luckily more then likely not going to happen being 12 days out but a horrible thing the 6z GFS does to Louisiana, they don't need that.. I'm glad the GFS is basically wrong all the time this far out.

Louisiana hit this run but it will change no need to worry also expect models including Euro and GFs to continue to shift toward the west

Hermine (the 10/40 inland wave) refusing to become extratropical. The front has missed it's center. It's trying to replicate 1966's Faith, i think. Also it's expanding, does not mean that it's extratropical though (Sandy, Tip!)
Quoting 1076. James1981cane:


Louisiana hit this run but it will change no need to worry also expect models including Euro and GFs to continue to shift toward the west


Holy crap if it was to happen Louisiana would be totally wrecked


We shall see what 12Z show yeah
Quoting 1074. wunderkidcayman:



Well I wouldn't go that far at this time

I'm thinking it stays in the Caribbean for most of its time maybe crosses further W like Haiti E Cuba then through FL Straits I still think landfall in gulf states would be Western Florida or maybe MS or AL but leaning more to FL

I think it would be much stronger than what current 06Z GFS shows

If it does move just N of Cuba going through FL Straits I'd say strengthening TS maybe hurricane in the E GOM

But let's just explore your idea for a min if it does stay in the Caribbean and get in the NW Caribbean then hits W tip of Cuba then into E GOM it would be moving over the extremely high heat potential/oceanic heat content and we could see it explode into decent hurricane in the NW Caribbean and it could get nasty in the GOM


What i think will happen is invest 99L will get to 55 W then start getting its act together once past the lesser Antilles it will start to move WNW as a weak tropical storm maybe depression will pass just north of Haiti and once near eastern cuba will make a turn Due west because of a ridge building in i expect GOM landfall the farthest west i will go is TX/LA border for now
Quoting 1070. James1981cane:

This GFS run shows the high forcing 99L or Gaston on a due west path once in the GOM so this could get intersting don't like that scenario but since it's really too early to tell and it's not even a depression yet, i know the tracks will not be consistent for a while.

Hermine finally extratropical.
Quoting 1077. NunoLava1998:


Hermine (the 10/40 inland wave) refusing to become extratropical. The front has missed it's center. It's trying to replicate 1966's Faith, i think. Also it's expanding, does not mean that it's extratropical though (Sandy, Tip!)


Haha very funny nuno your not gonna win

That extrop
Quoting 1078. wunderkidcayman:



Holy crap if it was to happen Louisiana would be totally wrecked


We shall see what 12Z show yeah


I am guessing 12Z will shift to a Florida landfall the GFS will keep moving back and forth on solutions i think EC is out of play for now
1084. LargoFl
Intensity model also keeps it down to TS force end of run..which is a good thing so far..
when a system gets intermingled with greater antillies you just dont know what will come out of there
1086. LargoFl
Quoting 1076. James1981cane:


Louisiana hit this run but it will change no need to worry also expect models including Euro and GFs to continue to shift toward the west
we have a week to watch this,once it Does form the models will get a better handle on track.CMC model takes it up the east coast,so track right now is still model guesswork
Quoting 1073. James1981cane:



Looking more and more likely that it will be a gulf storm models suggest it will be

I don't see how you can say that when it is still broad circulation a week out.
Wait for it to tighten up before mentioning "gulf storm!"
Strong MJO expected in Atlantic last week of August into September

Quoting 1079. James1981cane:



What i think will happen is invest 99L will get to 55 W then start getting its act together once past the lesser Antilles it will start to move WNW as a weak tropical storm maybe depression will pass just north of Haiti and once near eastern cuba will make a turn Due west because of a ridge building in i expect GOM landfall the farthest west i will go is TX/LA border for now


I gotta say if that other situation pans out and it does get into NW Caribbean I'd take my hat off to you

I'm starting to think that this other path into the NW Caribbean may start to look more likely down the road

It's gonna be interesting days ahead once 99L gets to 50/55W
As has been said before, we can post models including dreaded 995 mb over Nola or Tampa, Melbourne or Miami, but mid-week is when NHC is looking for a better fix on 99L because that's when it will be better organized. Maybe 99L will even fizzle out...This year has reminded me of '04 because that year we also had a very hot, dry inactive July in Central Florida. And we all know what happened in August and September! So I wouldn't rule anything out. Particularly with the high SSTs and bombs continuously dropping into East Atlantic from Cape Verde.
Quoting 1089. wunderkidcayman:



I gotta say if that other situation pans out and it does get into NW Caribbean I'd take my hat off to you

I'm starting to think that this other path into the NW Caribbean may start to look more likely down the road

It's gonna be interesting days ahead once 99L gets to 50/55W


Yes interesting things will await us around 50 W
Quoting 1086. LargoFl:

we have a week to watch this,once it Does form the models will get a better handle on track.CMC model takes it up the east coast,so track right now is still model guesswork


EC less likely scenario
Right now invest 99 appears to be moving W to WNW (IMO)
Quoting 1093. juracanpr1:

Right now invest 99 appears to be moving W to WNW (IMO)


You are correct DING DING DING
1096. hydrus
99L has some convection...May start to consolidate..Large wave so it will take a while...Much warmer water ahead...


Quoting 1088. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Strong MJO expected in Atlantic last week of August into September



The GFS seems to be picking up on that, has been showing storms going all over the place. It's going to get very interesting in coming weeks.
Quoting 1088. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Strong MJO expected in Atlantic last week of August into September



holy cow Batman, really... could get interesting
@UK_Atlantic_Wx: Looks like GFS makes 99L hit southern FL 2nd run in a row and re-strengthens it in the gulf.. But its more south in the gulf. #99L
Quoting 1097. washingaway:


The GFS seems to be picking up on that, has been showing storms going all over the place. It's going to get very interesting in coming weeks.


Yeah GFS has been more aggressive for the Atlantic to move into a favorable mjo phase we will see if it pans out. A lot to watch.
Quoting 1096. hydrus:

99L has some convection...May start to consolidate..Large wave so it will take a while...Much warmer water ahead...





I'm not expecting 99L to start taking off till about 50W give or take 5 degrees

From now till then it's just steady movements maybe some increase in organisation and convection
Quoting 1098. Chicklit:


holy cow Batman, really... could get interesting


Lol yeah it looks like it could
1103. hydrus
Quoting 1098. Chicklit:


holy cow Batman, really... could get interesting
To interesting...Especially if everything moves west....Good morning Chick...Hope you are well...
1104. barbamz
Good morning. Looks like windstorm Hildegund (German name; unnamed in the UK) caused first victims, unfortunately:

Newquay rescue: Man swept out to sea with family dies
BBC, 11 minutes ago, From the section Cornwall
A man has died and his two-year old daughter is in a critical condition after being swept off rocks in Cornwall and into the sea. ...
They were swept into the water at Fistral Beach in Newquay at 17:20 BST on Friday, the coastguard said.
The RNLI said the sea conditions changed considerably between 16:00 and 17:30 and crews were called to three rescues. ...
Ken Wilkins, who was in nearby Portreath at the time, said the state of the sea was unusual for the time of year. "Today was the biggest summer swell we'd seen for several years," he said. ....



The sea was unusually rough for the time of year (photo: Ken Wilkins)


Quoting 1103. hydrus:

To interesting...Especially if everything moves west....Good morning Chick...Hope you are well...

hey hydrus, always appreciate your graphics
it's been a while since we had a possible Florida storm to track
We still do not have a designated system. Please be mindful of posting the GFS hitting Louisana still ways out. Those people have already seen enough.99L is moving west to wnw right now.
Quoting 1101. wunderkidcayman:



I'm not expecting 99L to start taking off till about 50W give or take 5 degrees

From now till then it's just steady movements maybe some increase in organisation and convection


Yeah agreed closer to the islands, It is a large circulation so it will take some time
1109. ackee
Which model solution for 99L do think is the most likely out come if you where to take a guess ? I am going with C

A GFS
B Euro
C HWRF
D CMC
1110. barbamz

MIMIC-TPW looks promising/threatening with 99L (large and decent circulation) - gonna be a busy weekend for the blog ...
Quoting 1109. ackee:

Which model solution for 99L do think is the most likely out come if you where to take a guess ? I am going with C

A GFS
B Euro
C HWRF
D CMC


a misxture of the GFS and HWRF
Ignore post 1106 accidental double post and took up blog space, didn't have my coffee this morning lol
GFS much less aggressive in short term on 99L. Interesting. UKMET JMA CMC HWRF and GFDL still develop it though. If it can gets its act together in a hurry, it will be a threat
1114. Grothar
A track into the Gulf should not be discounted. As a matter of fact, one of the early scenarios was for 99L to be a low rider and enter Gulf. The future 90L will be a different story. It appears to be a very large system.

1115. Grothar
This will change. :)

1116. Grothar
A note: These are not "Cones". The simply show an area in which development might occur.

TWO is out and no changes to 99L the African system has been bumped up slightly to 10/50% same as 99L



Quoting 1109. ackee:

Which model solution for 99L do think is the most likely out come if you where to take a guess ? I am going with C

A GFS
B Euro
C HWRF
D CMC


You know what I'm also going with C HWRF

99L Stays the same and chances increase for large wave/future 90L about to emerge off Africa

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fiona, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

1. A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located about 750 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
This system continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms, and any development should be slow to occur due to
its large size and proximity to dry air. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be more conducive for development beyond a couple
of days, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next
week while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the
tropical Atlantic Ocean and into the eastern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

2. A tropical wave located inland over western Africa is producing a
large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. This wave is expected
to move offshore tonight and environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development while it moves generally
west-northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean during
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Forecaster Cangialosi
Quoting 1114. Grothar:

A track into the Gulf should not be discounted. As a matter of fact, one of the early scenarios was for 99L to be a low rider and enter Gulf. The future 90L will be a different story. It appears to be a very large system.




I think they will change further S and W a Caribbean cruiser and ends up in the GOM I think will come of 99L

Quoting 1115. Grothar:

This will change. :)




Yes it will further S and W they will go

Quoting 1116. Grothar:




I suspect the cone for 99L will shift back Southwards and Westwards as 99L moves further W IMO
Good Morning ...anyone have a link to the ukmet model run? thanks
Quoting 1115. Grothar:

This will change. :)




Probably more south
1122. Grothar
Quoting 1119. wunderkidcayman:



I think they will change further S and W a Caribbean cruiser and ends up in the GOM I think will come of 99L



Yes it will further S and W they will go



I suspect the cone for 99L will shift back Southwards and Westwards as 99L moves further W IMO


Been on the same page but the question remains is our forecast correct lol
Quoting 1121. WeatherkidJoe2323:



Probably more south


Yes trending south most likely more south
1125. Grothar
Quoting 1105. Chicklit:


hey hydrus, always appreciate your graphics
it's been a while since we had a possible Florida storm to track


It looks like we might be in "the Cone of Uncertainty" in a few days, Chiklit.
1126. hydrus
Quoting 1120. stormhank:

Good Morning ...anyone have a link to the ukmet model run? thanks
Greetings Hank...Link
Quoting 1122. Grothar:




What is the GFDL thinking? Trying to go back to Africa I see
Steering is decidedly north of the Greater Antilles. What happens from there is up in the air, but the chances of this passing south of the islands into the West Caribbean are low.
99L on satellite imagery has not been very impressive. However, the circulation alone shows this storm will be pretty large once it starts to fill out. Large vorticity takes days to consolidate but it's hard to kill that kind of energy. The upcoming MJO signal late next week could allow the adequate low level moisture to feed this large tropical engine. I don't expect much develop in the next 48 hrs however once it reaches 50W the TCHPs and SSTs starts to rise. Also looking at the the wind shear map this system will have a potent upper air anticyclone overhead to fanning it out once the inflows are there. I am not underestimating just the heavy rain threat this will bring to the islands. As for points beyond, it will depend on how strong 99L gets if it wants to go north of the islands, plow right into them or cruise in the Caribbean. Based on all the rising 500mb heights, its pretty clear this storm will likely not be a early recurve as storm were in the past.
Could you explain why that is?
Quoting 1092. James1981cane:



EC less likely scenario
Good! don't want it on my doorstep!
Quoting 1130. thedrycurve:

here we go again... east coast florida will get nothing ... every year they say all the models are are gonna hit florida east coast and guess what ???????? florida gets nothing... the storm if it develops will either go north or south of florida or fall apart if its heading to ecf
1133. Grothar
Very strong impulse in 48 hours expected over the NE Conus.

Quoting 1128. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Steering is decidedly north of the Greater Antilles. What happens from there is up in the air, but the chances of this passing south of the islands into the West Caribbean are low.


Nah

Anyway the chances of passing South into Western Caribbean has been increasing
They are higher than they were yesterday and day before

And I think it will continue

Anyway the trends with the models since its started is S and W so putting in western Caribbean well the chances are increasing

As I said before it's a wait and see game
1135. Kyon5


Pre-Irene:



Shows how they both struggled through the Central Atlantic. Of course, that doesn't mean they will be the same in any way, but still interesting.
Quoting 1130. thedrycurve:

here we go again... east coast florida will get nothing ... every year they say all the models are are gonna hit florida east coast and guess what ???????? florida gets nothing... the storm if it develops will either go north or south of florida or fall apart if its heading to ecf
You say that like its a bad thing.
1137. hydrus
Quoting 1133. Grothar:

Very strong impulse in 48 hours expected over the NE Conus.


Mornin Gro..That impulse will bring temps in the 50's here..love it..
1138. Grothar
0Z GFS took it across south FL and then to the panhandle. 06Z takes across south FL then to cent LA.
I don't like either of those tracks.
61 long way to go on 99 still has to develop and even if it does 99 then has to sneak through the greater antillies. the stalled out front off the east coast has to be watched too.
1138 looking kind of "blobolicious" there, Gro.
Quoting 1122. Grothar:



I think 99 L will not develop at all. In every new report NHC says "any development should be slow to occur due to its large size and proximity to dry air". Hence, the system has a low chance to develop (10 %) for the next two days. Tomorrow, the statement will be the same. By Sunday, the same statement, and so on. Also, look at the broad circulation (also stated by NHC). The NHC do not mentions conditions two days in advance will be fairly good, but "are forecast to be more conducive" Observe, they keep the long range probability at 50 %. So, the possibility the system do not develop at all is fairly high (50 %). I goes with Euro at this moment. May be the system behind could be a different story
1143. Grothar
Quoting 1128. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Steering is decidedly north of the Greater Antilles. What happens from there is up in the air, but the chances of this passing south of the islands into the West Caribbean are low.


I agree. The area of development has shifted quite a bit north.



1144. Grothar
Quoting 1141. PensacolaDoug:

1138 looking kind of "blobolicious" there, Gro.


You know how these things can flareup and hit us in the CONUS, Doug.
Good morning all. Overcast skies here in Antigua. Question: What are the contributing factors to 99L moving through the South Western Caribbean as opposed to the North Eastern Caribbean Please simplify.
Quoting 1143. Grothar:



I agree. The area of development has shifted quite a bit north.






I disagree
And I say the development "cone" will shift back South in a coupe of days if not sooner
Quoting 1076. James1981cane:


Louisiana hit this run but it will change no need to worry also expect models including Euro and GFs to continue to shift toward the west
That would very bad for Louisiana, they don't need any more trouble their way, good thing still far out.
Quoting 1121. WeatherkidJoe2323:



Probably more south


Nope.


1149. 62901IL
Is anyone else having trouble loading JTWC? I was using chrome, and I couldn't load JTWC.
Quoting 1146. wunderkidcayman:



I disagree
And I say the development "cone" will shift back South in a coupe of days if not sooner

Why?
1151. Grothar
Quoting 1142. juracanpr1:


I think 99 L will not develop at all. In every new report NHC says "any development should be slow to occur due to its large size and proximity to dry air". Hence, the system has a low chance to develop (10 %) for the next two days. Tomorrow, the statement will be the same. By Sunday, the same statement, and so on. Also, look at the broad circulation (also stated by NHC). The NHC do not mentions conditions two days in advance will be fairly good, but "are forecast to be more conducive" Observe, they keep the long range probability at 50 %. So, the possibility the system do not develop at all is fairly high (50 %). I goes with Euro at this moment. May be the system behind could be a different story


Normally, I would agree. But as the Doc and Mr. Henson have pointed out, the EURO is not always aggressive on intensity. 99L was never expected to develop quickly. However, since all the models indicate a strong system, they cannot be ignored. By keeping 99L at 50%, I believe it is a responsible move. All indications are conditions will be conducive for development.



From Clark Evans

1152. Relix
Of course WKC is saying it's gonna go into the Caribbean. Ooooof coooouuurrsseee
Quoting 1148. SavannahStorm:



Nope.





Hmmm that is interesting but things can change and depending on steering in 4-5 days and strength of system the more north is not set in stone at this point.
Quoting 1153. WeatherkidJoe2323:



Hmmm that is interesting but things can change and depending on steering in 4-5 days and strength of system the more north is not set in stone at this point.


Until we get a more well-defined low and better upper-air data we will continue to see this "windshield wiper" effect in the models. "Garbage in, garbage out" so to speak.
Quoting 1146. wunderkidcayman:



I disagree
And I say the development "cone" will shift back South in a coupe of days if not sooner


Can you please stop. It's annoying to see you argue every map saying south. Staupppp it!
GFS showing an active Atlantic in the following weeks with Gaston, Hermine, Ian, and a developing Julia. This could change however, but I do expect we will see an active late-August/September.
99l is barely producing a sprinkle. calm down people. if it becomes a td and gets south of puerto rico then we will have a player
Quoting 1156. MoneyHurricane:

GFS showing and active Atlantic in the following weeks with Gaston, Hermine, Ian, and a developing Julia. This could change however, but I do expect we will see an active late-August/September.
Long Range Ensembles actually like those systems for early September, still a ways away, we shall see.
On this day August 20th to the end of the season is the beginning of the busiest part of Hurricane Season, the real Hurricane season as some experts would say, more than 70% of the activity on average in a season occurs today through the end of the year.
06Z HWRF
has 99L deeper in the Caribbean South of DR just shy of 15N moving W-WNW
Straight line projection onwards from the last two points of 06Z HWRF onwards would put 99L passing South of Jamaica into the NW Caribbean and into Yucatan channel and GOM

vis. of 99 weak circulation nail picker
Looking pass 99L, a very active period is in store for the Atlantic. Thanks in large part to the MJO signal moving into our neck of the woods. I can see a final number of 16-7-3 by November. 
12Z data out on 99L

Models have shifted W again more models putting a landfall over Hispaniola rather than just E of DR

It appears that 60% of the Euro ensemble members are now on board with TC development for 99L.
Also looks like a heading of slightly north of do west.
Quoting 1163. islander101010:

vis. of 99 weak circulation nail picker
1170. barbamz
WPAC: the dance of the cyclones:


Click to enlarge. Source.

Guess some Fujiwhara action between Lionrock and Mindulle is going to happen.

Looks like 99L is a pretty large system. While pressure may not be all that low yet, it has a wide reach. Looking at the current imagery and wind pattern data, you can see the reach going as far as 43W to 30W. Will be very interesting to see this develop. Does it keep a large COC with low convection or consolidate into a smaller storm?




earth.nullschool


Central Atlantic loop
Quoting 1166. WeatherkidJoe2323:

It appears that 60% of the Euro ensemble members are now on board with TC development for 99L.


I just saw that.

Link to the EPS Ensemble output.
1173. Xulonn
Quoting 899. SavannahStorm:

Squint and you can see the vorticity...
LOL! You must have really bad eyes - I can see the circulation on the global wind map - even without my glasses! Rotation is nicely stacked from the surface up to 700hPa. Although circulation is big and sloppy, and still tied to the ITCZ, it is definitely there, and has been for a few days. 99L appears to be simply plodding to the west and waiting for better conditions and warm waters to increase convection.

Below is a "snip" of the current wind map - and here is a LINK to the online interactive version.

(Use the "I" key to cycle up through the heights, and the "M" key to cycle back down.)

Quoting 1142. juracanpr1:


I think 99 L will not develop at all. In every new report NHC says "any development should be slow to occur due to its large size and proximity to dry air". Hence, the system has a low chance to develop (10 %) for the next two days. Tomorrow, the statement will be the same. By Sunday, the same statement, and so on. Also, look at the broad circulation (also stated by NHC). The NHC do not mentions conditions two days in advance will be fairly good, but "are forecast to be more conducive" Observe, they keep the long range probability at 50 %. So, the possibility the system do not develop at all is fairly high (50 %). I goes with Euro at this moment. May be the system behind could be a different story

Did you miss Earl???? Same set up ... maybe a little better. Easiest way to say it is a weaker blob/td will stay south of west of any projected cone .... if it strengthens above 45mph lets say ... it should pull a little north of west. Either way this train is rolling west
Isn't the TVCN model the NHC uses for plotting as well?
Quoting 1165. wunderkidcayman:

12Z data out on 99L

Models have shifted W again more models putting a landfall over Hispaniola rather than just E of DR



And tomorrow it will be the yucatan and after that maybe the bahamas and florida ... before this gets classified and we have actual data from inside it ... it could hit anywhere or nowhere. Lol ... models ...
Quoting 1172. SavannahStorm:



I just saw that.

Link to the EPS Ensemble output.



Quoting 1173. Xulonn:

LOL! You must have really bad eyes - I can see the circulation on the global wind map - even without my glasses! Rotation is nicely stacked from the surface up to 700hPa. Although circulation is big and sloppy, and still tied to the ITCZ, it is definitely there, and has been for a few days. 99L appears to be simply plodding to the west and waiting for better conditions and warm waters to increase convection.

Below is a "snip" of the current wind map - and here is a LINK to the online interactive version.

(Use the "I" key to cycle up through the heights, and the "M" key to cycle back down.)




That earlier quote was from a 850mb ECMWF vort chart showing just a smidgen of vorticity surviving north of PR. The nullschool wind chart I definitely don't need my glasses for, lol.
1180. ncstorm
Good Morning..

Cloudy morning here in Wilmington..

I thought I would post some model runs that havent been shown and well more to where I live...I am watching but not concern yet..

99L
6z Navgem


00z JMA


Before there is talk of the worst models posted, there are also Euro Ensembles showing development of 99L tracking through the bahamas or off of the SE Coast as those same worst operational model runs..

There are so many players in play as why we are seeing the wind shield wipers runs....ridge, trough, and even a possible system off the SE coast shown in some model runs...good luck reading the latest discussion from the WPC that shows the below average confidence of these players..

Gotta go..Have a great day of blogging :)





Right through the box. There will be changes through out, but everyone from the islands to the gulf and east coast needs to keep a close eye on this.
Quoting 1175. GeoffreyWPB:


1182. Grothar
GFS



ECMWF



UKMET

1183. Grothar
1184. LargoFl
Quoting 1180. ncstorm:

Good Morning..

Cloudy morning here in Wilmington..

I thought I would post some model runs that havent been shown and well more to where I live...I am watching but not concern yet..

99L
6z Navgem


00z JMA


Before there is talk of the worst models posted, there are also Euro Ensembles showing development of 99L tracking through the bahamas or off of the SE Coast as those same worst operational model runs..

There are so many players in play as why we are seeing the wind shield wipers runs....ridge, trough, and even a possible system off the SE coast shown in some model runs...good luck reading the latest discussion from the WPC that shows the below average confidence of these players..

Gotta go..Have a great day of blogging :)






yes CMC model agree's with that..off the Carolina's coast too
1185. ackee
Quoting 1177. hurricaneryan87:


And tomorrow it will be the yucatan and after that maybe the bahamas and florida ... before this gets classified and we have actual data from inside it ... it could hit anywhere or nowhere. Lol ... models ...
Model will continue shift further west and south reason I the HWRF will be right the wave is well south large will take days to organize I say by Sunday we should have better idea
So the Ukmet is now on board with development?
99L moving its way along with future 90L right behind.
1188. hydrus
Quoting 1173. Xulonn:

LOL! You must have really bad eyes - I can see the circulation on the global wind map - even without my glasses! Rotation is nicely stacked from the surface up to 700hPa. Although circulation is big and sloppy, and still tied to the ITCZ, it is definitely there, and has been for a few days. 99L appears to be simply plodding to the west and waiting for better conditions and warm waters to increase convection.

Below is a "snip" of the current wind map - and here is a LINK to the online interactive version.

(Use the "I" key to cycle up through the heights, and the "M" key to cycle back down.)



Greetings Xulonn...Already west wind south of 99L..Circulation is large and well defines..Convection will start firing soon..If i lived in the Lesser Antilles, I would watch it like a hawk.
1189. LargoFl
Lets all pray this one time the GFS is dead wrong,what a disaster this would be for those people..
All 3 on board.
Quoting 1182. Grothar:

GFS



ECMWF



UKMET


1191. ackee
Quoting 1162. wunderkidcayman:

06Z HWRF
has 99L deeper in the Caribbean South of DR just shy of 15N moving W-WNW
Straight line projection onwards from the last two points of 06Z HWRF onwards would put 99L passing South of Jamaica into the NW Caribbean and into Yucatan channel and GOM

good observation
1192. 19N81W
Going from 99l to 90l is as obvious as why Fiona and a few others were named.....
I am sure there is a reason
Quoting 1187. Climate175:

99L moving its way along with future 90L right behind.
1193. hydrus
Quoting 1189. LargoFl:

Lets all pray this one time the GFS is dead wrong,what a disaster this would be for those people..
Hansnt formed well enough for the long range to be of much use. It has a higher chance of missing the gulf and heading into the Bahamas and Florida..jmo
Quoting 1168. hurricanewatcher61:

Also looks like a heading of slightly north of do west.


Based on this I'd say no
06Z 11.3N 34.8W
12Z 11.2N 35.4W


Quoting 1176. hurricanewatcher61:

Isn't the TVCN model the NHC uses for plotting as well?


Well it's really a whole suite
TVCA
TVCC
TVCE
TVCN
TVCP
TVCX
TVCY

Quoting 1177. hurricaneryan87:


And tomorrow it will be the yucatan and after that maybe the bahamas and florida ... before this gets classified and we have actual data from inside it ... it could hit anywhere or nowhere. Lol ... models ...


The overall trend with models has been South and West

Yeah it probably won't be till Mon/Tues when we get a recon mission so models won't be working too well till then

Quoting 1181. hurricanewatcher61:

Right through the box. There will be changes through out, but everyone from the islands to the gulf and east coast needs to keep a close eye on this.


Agreed
Quoting 1186. Hurricanes101:

So the Ukmet is now on board with development?


Yes
Quoting 1092. James1981cane:



EC less likely scenario


based on what?
Quoting 1192. 19N81W:

Going from 99l to 90l is as obvious as why Fiona and a few others were named.....
I am sure there is a reason

We just gotta see what goes on.
Quoting 1186. Hurricanes101:

So the Ukmet is now on board with development?


UKMET has always been on board

Quoting 1191. ackee:




Thank you

Quoting 1196. Hurricanes101:



based on what?

no scenario is more likely than the other. Once this gets closer to the islands, recon data will be very helpful predicting its future track
Quoting 1196. Hurricanes101:



based on what?


It is indeed becoming less and less likely

As of now the EC still needs to watch but certainly seems less of an issue as time goes on
HurricaneTracker App @hurrtrackerapp 2h
EURO/UKMET are once again showing development of #99L. E Carib impacts are likely mid week. #Gaston
Quoting 1200. wunderkidcayman:



It is indeed becoming less and less likely

As of now the EC still needs to watch but certainly seems less of an issue as time goes on


Based

On

What?

Quoting 1199. wunderweatherman123:


no scenario is more likely than the other. Once this gets closer to the islands, recon data will be very helpful predicting its future track


Yes I have to agree

I can't wait till RECON flies
It should be hopefully Mon/Tues timeframe

Quoting 1170. barbamz:

WPAC: the dance of the cyclones

Link
99l=Fl storm
His 30 year anniversary has already passed but still he aged very nicely.
1207. Grothar
Just out. The models seem to be moving more "northerly" on this run, as expected. It seems to want to avoid the Caribbean at all costs.

Quoting 1202. Hurricanes101:



Based

On

What?



No one seems to have an answer for you today
One last thing. This reminds me exactly of hurricane issac now that I think about it. Models kept on turning it north of the islands, then through puerto rico, and it eventually made it's way south of the Greater Antilies, over Hati and Cuba and into the gulf. 99L may be barren but it's spin is robust and conditions moisten further west. Maybe GFS will show it stronger before the islands in the next few runs.
Quoting 1173. Xulonn:

LOL! You must have really bad eyes - I can see the circulation on the global wind map - even without my glasses! Rotation is nicely stacked from the surface up to 700hPa. Although circulation is big and sloppy, and still tied to the ITCZ, it is definitely there, and has been for a few days. 99L appears to be simply plodding to the west and waiting for better conditions and warm waters to increase convection.

Below is a "snip" of the current wind map - and here is a LINK to the online interactive version.

(Use the "I" key to cycle up through the heights, and the "M" key to cycle back down.)



The circulation on this one is very large to say the least. I'm pretty sure it will shrink in time as it detach from the ITCZ. But its large influence will stay the same. It has the chance to be epic if it starts to fill out.
Quoting 1207. Grothar:

Just out. The models seem to be moving more "northerly" on this run, as expected. It seems to want to avoid the Caribbean at all costs.




yup
99L...

Quoting 1207. Grothar:

Just out. The models seem to be moving more "northerly" on this run, as expected. It seems to want to avoid the Caribbean at all costs.




Brutal.
Quoting 1208. SecretStormNerd:


No one seems to have an answer for you today



Yea I know lol. Just asking for some back up. Models clearly trending northward and no scenario at this point is ruled out. Was just curious how some could be so sure that the East Coast is less likely lol
1215. hydrus
Quoting 1207. Grothar:

Just out. The models seem to be moving more "northerly" on this run, as expected. It seems to want to avoid the Caribbean at all costs.


Worse track would be across the Northern Antilles , near or over Puerto Rico into the Bahamas..jmo
Quoting 1214. Hurricanes101:



Yea I know lol. Just asking for some back up. Models clearly trending northward and no scenario at this point is ruled out. Was just curious how some could be so sure that the East Coast is less likely lol

It looks like they are team GOM. IMO, just based off model trends over the last few days, the east coast is more in play than the gulf.
Morning! Good consensus this morning between the GFS/ECMWF of the wave emerging off Africa developing into a decent system as it recurves out to sea. 99L's still highly uncertain though. GFS is definitely weaker through 120 hours and inline with the ECMWF, however the ECMWF/UKMET are starting to hint at something.
It is interesting that when 99L was first designated, the general forecast was for it to be further south into the Caribbean but then move NW over the NE part of the islands and then out to sea with a possible impact on Bermuda.

Now the general consensus is further north but on a more WNW path so it appears it should go farther west than the initial forecasts.

A lot can and will change. I think the biggest question right now is if and when 99L will develop. It will then shed some light on the future track.
I gotta tell you, I had chills up and down my body after seeing the 18Z GFS pointing a major Hurricane my way, of course it's all entertainment for now. This has a chance to become a huge player and probably the worst storm since Sandy. Now that the EURO is on board, we just need to see a storm form. Anyone from Texas to Maine needs to moniter the progress of this system. This has a chance to become a typhoon-ish type Hurricane if it can get north of PR where conditions will be ripe for development.
Quoting 1216. SecretStormNerd:


It looks like they are team GOM. IMO, just based off model trends over the last few days, the east coast is more in play than the gulf.


I would agree with the trend. This one is going to be very interesting. I do not see the Central or NW Caribbean in play with this one, but the East Coast and the Gulf could be. First focus is on what part of the Islands are impacted.
While much of the focus is on 99L, "Future 90L" looks destined to become a long track Cape Verde hurricane with minimal land impact.

1222. Grothar
Strong convection beginning around 99L . Megablob over Africa looking good.

Structure of 99L has improved
1224. 882MB
Beautiful morning here in PR. Watching very closely 99L.

1225. scott39
We are going to continue to see the wind shield wiper effect with 99L past 5 days. It is currently heading W again. Before the most current model run, it had been going WNW for 12 hours. This is why a bump to the N was noticed. Looking past 5 days is for popcorn and a coke.
1226. Grothar
99L will be very slow to develop which will probably keep it on its WNW motion. That might put it in the area of the Bahamas next week.
1227. luigi18
Quoting 1215. hydrus:

Worse track would be across the Northern Antilles , near or over Puerto Rico into the Bahamas..jmo
we are smelling it ....smell like a Hugo -Georges type hurricane for us here(Puerto Rico) hpe not........
Quoting 1207. Grothar:

Just out. The models seem to be moving more "northerly" on this run, as expected. It seems to want to avoid the Caribbean at all costs.




Nah it's more westerly into the Caribbean



Instead of passing either over W PR or between PR and DR or skirting NE DR
Models now pushing more W land falling in Haiti now
Quoting 1227. luigi18:

we are smelling it ....smell like a Hugo -Georges type hurricane for us here(Puerto Rico) hpe not........


Hugo and Georges were major hurricanes well before they impacted PR. This will be maybe a tropical storm by then
Quoting 1228. wunderkidcayman:



Nah it's more westerly into the Caribbean



Instead of passing either over W PR or between PR and DR or skirting NE DR
Models now pushing more W land falling in Haiti now


It is possible for the tracks to be further north and west. That is what we are seeing here.
1231. beell
Quoting 1207. Grothar:

Just out. The models seem to be moving more "northerly" on this run, as expected. It seems to want to avoid the Caribbean at all costs.




Better initialization. But maybe still a bit south of where 99L will begin to tighten up.
(a WAG)
Such a large circulation, you can see here 99L becoming more defined at the surface

"Cone" shifted north for 99L.........

101 hope 99 is only a weak cyclone.
1235. scott39
99L currently heading W....277 degrees for the last 6 hours. W.... 280 degrees average for the last 12 hours. The last 12 hour average before that was WNW....287 degrees.
1236. GatorWX
Quoting 1222. Grothar:

Strong convection beginning around 99L . Megablob over Africa looking good.




Another biggen!
Quoting 1227. luigi18:

we are smelling it ....smell like a Hugo -Georges type hurricane for us here(Puerto Rico) hpe not........


Luckily it is highly doubtful it would be anywhere near that type of intensity near PR. Hugo was a Cat4/Cat5 long before it even got to the Windwards.
Quoting 1182. Grothar:

GFS



ECMWF



UKMET




Special thanks to ukm and euro.
1239. Grothar
Quoting 1231. beell:



Better initialization. But maybe still a bit south of where 99L will begin to tighten up.
(a WAG)



I'll give you a WAG!!!
Quoting 1210. Ricki13th:


The circulation on this one is very large to say the least. I'm pretty sure it will shrink in time as it detach from the ITCZ. But its large influence will stay the same. It has the chance to be epic if it starts to fill out.
It is very large but tightening up very good.
1241. GatorWX




99's a bit bare atm, but Fiona is looking rather robust this morning!
Quoting 1207. Grothar:

Just out. The models seem to be moving more "northerly" on this run, as expected. It seems to want to avoid the Caribbean at all costs.




Could it be the exciting scenario I'm waiting for? :))
Quoting 1215. hydrus:

Worse track would be across the Northern Antilles , near or over Puerto Rico into the Bahamas..jmo


Maybe...
Quoting 1242. CaribBoy:



Could it be the exciting scenario I'm waiting for? :))
This would not be good for the Bahamas and Florida. 99L lookin to visit Hebert.
1245. SC29483
One of my concerns for current flood victims in Louisiana are the mosquitoes that are have an incredible breeding habitat. Same for any area in the way of a tropical storm. In the early days of Carolina, there often would be more deaths from mosquito born diseases weeks after a hurricane than from the actual hurricane itself. With Zika around that might be a huge problem. Not sure what the answer is, but if I lived in those areas I would make sure that I had plenty of repellent on hand and that my family used it.
Interesting to see what the 12z Euro will say this afternoon. Its has join the GFS but barely develops it. That may begin to change as we go down the road. Conditions will be favorable once it's passes 50W. It's just a matter of how much the large circulation can tighten up and consolidate. IMHO
1247. Gearsts
lol
There is one important change that just took place in the southeast. The resilient ridge that has been parked all summer in the southeast has broken down. The high is not as strong as it has been and allowing very needed moisture to happen in many places of extreme drought. That pattern change could allow for long sweeping cold fronts to push further south. That can allow approaching tropical storms to take a sharp hooking to the northeast like Charley in 2004. You have to look at visible changes not only model runs that add another equation into the whole picture.
Here to see this morning's suite before grabbing food for LCFC/Arsenal.

I'm not doing that great, I'll be around. Likely not posting. Hopefully this invest doesn't rear its head eventually and potentiallynharm anyone on here, if so I'll follow 99 closely. Gotta do that Fran 20th blog too. Take it easy.
Couple strikes in the same geographical area a strong possibility this season. That is how I see it. Let's hope the troughs are strong, consistent and early in September, but I don't think that is how it is going to shake out.

Quoting 1156. MoneyHurricane:

GFS showing an active Atlantic in the following weeks with Gaston, Hermine, Ian, and a developing Julia. This could change however, but I do expect we will see an active late-August/September.
99L could hopefully find a weakness in the high and go the way of Fiona? What about that Gro?
Quoting 1221. HurricaneFan:

While much of the focus is on 99L, "Future 90L" looks destined to become a long track Cape Verde hurricane with minimal land impact.


I just love how the GFS keeps pushing these storms into strong highs, the GFS is in dire need of major upgrades.
1253. beell
Tell everyone you know to buy gasoline this week. Everyday. Whether you need it or not. Keep you tanks full.

This will draw down pre-storm fuel inventories and resupply can be scheduled in advance of the storm. Post-storm-everyone has a full tank-including the service stations.
Quoting 1247. Gearsts:

lol




?????
1255. Gearsts
Quoting 1254. Hurricanes101:




?????
1 day ago it was showing a hurricane over the islands.
1256. Xulonn
Quoting 1179. SavannahStorm:


That earlier quote was from a 850mb ECMWF vort chart showing just a smidgen of vorticity surviving north of PR. The nullschool wind chart I definitely don't need my glasses for, lol.
We actually seem to be pretty much in agreement, with some typical Euro vs GFS differences.

The windmap, which is based on GFS / NCEP / US NWS data, shows large and weak circulation persisting over the next 4 days and ending up west of Dominica. If that holds true, development is not likely for at least another four days - possibly in the Caribbean.

Lots of other people here post pressure-based model graphics, and I like to compare those with wind and circulation modelling - although the Nullschool windmap only goes out four days. However, that is probably a good thing, considering the repeated posting of far future model images up to 10 days out that often seem to change like crazy with every run.)
1257. Grothar
The GFS and the EURO are narrowing their models to come into closer agreement on both intensity and track. Don't expect any quick development of 99L any time soon. But I believe by next week 99L will become "embiggened"
definitely dont want a zika carrier in a flood zone. after Andrew the govt dosed the homestead area with pesticides. that was a terrible disaster for s miami.
1259. Grothar
Quoting 1251. rmbjoe1954:

99L could hopefully find a weakness in the high and go the way of Fiona? What about that Gro?


Very unlikely. Any movement north would occur very close to the SE coast of the US by the end of next week. I personally expect 99L to be close to the vicinity of the Bahamas by next, according to the latest models. That impulse which is expected to be over the NE US looks pretty strong.

Quoting 1222. Grothar:

Strong convection beginning around 99L . Megablob over Africa looking good.


Quoting 1257. Grothar:

The GFS and the EURO are narrowing their models to come into closer agreement on both intensity and track. Don't expect any quick development of 99L any time soon. But I believe by next week 99L will become "embiggened"


What an 'emboldened' thing to say, Gro.
Quoting 1233. CaribBoy:

"Cone" shifted north for 99L.........




Likely to shift back South
I think looking at the satellite imagery one can see why the ECMWF was so hesitant to develop 99L. Note the broad and disorganized nature of the system. It's difficult to get a system to quickly develop a consolidated, closed low-level circulation in the time period the GFS was suggesting it would. That combined with dry air only points to slow and steady development over the next 3-5 days as the system approaches the Islands, if it develops at all. Given the ECMWF shows 99L reaching the Bahamas I wouldn't be surprised though if the ECMWF and GFS starts "meeting in the middle" with a weak tropical storm developing in the Bahamas in a little over a week as conditions are more than favorable to support TC genesis. If/once 99L develops a closed surface circulation then we'll have a much better idea of the future of the system. I'm personally not sold on development, but it definitely bares watching.



1264. barbamz
Quoting 1259. Grothar:

That impulse which is expected to be over the NE US looks pretty strong.

It sure does, Gro.

Source.


Quoting 1262. wunderkidcayman:



Likely to shift back South


Based on what?
Quoting 1263. CybrTeddy:

I think looking at the satellite imagery one can see why the ECMWF was so hesitant to develop 99L. Note the broad and disorganized nature of the system. It's difficult to get a system to quickly develop a consolidated, closed low-level circulation in the time period the GFS was suggesting it would. That combined with dry air only points to slow and steady development over the next 3-5 days as the system approaches the Islands, if it develops at all. Given the ECMWF shows 99L reaching the Bahamas I wouldn't be surprised though if the ECMWF and GFS starts "meeting in the middle" with a weak tropical storm developing in the Bahamas in a little over a week as conditions are more than favorable to support TC genesis. If/once 99L develops a closed surface circulation then we'll have a much better idea of the future of the system. I'm personally not sold on development, but it definitely bares watching.






am going too have too agreed with this i think in tell 99L can closed off the low and find lower wind shear we are not going too see march of any thing from 99L the GFS and other model right now are out liners the ECMWF model has a good handed on 99L for right now well need too see if the other starts too fall in line
Personally I'm still much more sold on the development of future 90L than 99L. Future 90L has strong model support and both ECMWF and GFS strengthen it into a hurricane. 99L, if it develops, is much more likely to be Hermine than Gaston, since most models develop future 90L first.
Quoting 1265. Hurricanes101:





Based on what?
I ask the same question as well. Maybe weaker system goes further west?
1269. Grothar
Link 99L looking a lot better organized this morning, you can tell how huge the circulation is. It's LLC has really improved, and like yesterday, just needs some convection.
1271. JRRP7
12n 37.2w imo


1272. wpb
hmrf yesterday had cat 2 east of barbados today next to nothing
gfdl thursday run hurricane, today open wave near islands
euro again had it correct.
Quoting 1272. wpb:

hmrf yesterday had cat 2 east of barbados today next to nothing
gfdl thursday run hurricane, today open wave near islands
euro again had it correct.


Not sure how you can assume that considering we are still a long way out.
Quoting 1268. sporteguy03:



and I still have not gotten an answer lol
Quoting 1262. wunderkidcayman:



Likely to shift back South


Nope :)
Quoting 1178. GeoffreyWPB:






Reposting this again from earlier for the "Euro isn't on board" crowd. 60+% of the Euro Ensembles now develop a tropical cyclone.
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION
INTO CENTRAL ATLANTIC SYSTEM FOR 23/1500Z.

1278. hydrus
Quoting 1259. Grothar:



Very unlikely. Any movement north would occur very close to the SE coast of the US by the end of next week. I personally expect 99L to be close to the vicinity of the Bahamas by next, according to the latest models. That impulse which is expected to be over the NE US looks pretty strong.


Yep..It will be interesting when it reaches tropical storm status. Models will do much better with future track.

I wonder if we see something similar to the deadly 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane as in track, not intensity..








Quoting 1271. JRRP7:

12n 37.2w imo





I agree
1280. hydrus
Quoting 1269. Grothar:


Imagine when the MJO gets here..
1281. JRRP7
At least we'll have some eye candy in the Atlantic if the GFS and Euro are correct about future 90L.A beautiful long track cape Verde hurricane that goes OTS would be wonderful.
Quoting 1269. Grothar:




Definitely, a squirrel chillin' out.

Quoting 1271. JRRP7:

12n 37.2w imo





Nah I'd say it's big and broad with no definitive centre just yet

Quoting 1275. CaribBoy:



Nope :)


Yes

Quoting 1277. nrtiwlnvragn:

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION
INTO CENTRAL ATLANTIC SYSTEM FOR 23/1500Z.




Yay recon mission
1285. LargoFl
1286. LargoFl
I do notice the the NHC 5 day..yesterday it was straight into the islands,today a slight hook northward..
1287. CW7859
Quoting 1279. JrWeathermanFL:



I agree


It looks like there's a LLC forming between 12 & 13 North, and between 37 & 38 West. Interestingly in that animated image you can see convection starting to fire off on the north/NW side of the circulation. Would be interesting to see if this continues throughout the day today.
1288. Patrap
Quoting 1285. LargoFl:




I this this is a possibility
1290. Patrap
,99L looking a tad fluffy this morning
Quoting 1286. LargoFl:

I do notice the the NHC 5 day..yesterday it was straight into the islands,today a slight hook northward..


I think that will change
1292. Patrap


Fiona's convection is firing up this morning.

At the moment, 99L and the future invest in the far eastern Atlantic are just that .... areas of interest.

The long-range global models have difficulty predicting their strengths and their future paths until they consolidate into a T.D. or better defined low pressure system.

Until that happens, the models will have these systems of varying strength going everywhere from the Caribbean, to the Gulf of Mexico, through the Bahamas, up the Atlantic Seaboard, or out to sea. This can change with each model run.

One thing for sure is that we are entering the busiest part of the Atlantic hurricane season!

The main thing to remember is: if you live near a coastal area is to have a plan of action, in case your area is threatened.
Quoting 1263. CybrTeddy:

I think looking at the satellite imagery one can see why the ECMWF was so hesitant to develop 99L. Note the broad and disorganized nature of the system. It's difficult to get a system to quickly develop a consolidated, closed low-level circulation in the time period the GFS was suggesting it would. That combined with dry air only points to slow and steady development over the next 3-5 days as the system approaches the Islands, if it develops at all. Given the ECMWF shows 99L reaching the Bahamas I wouldn't be surprised though if the ECMWF and GFS starts "meeting in the middle" with a weak tropical storm developing in the Bahamas in a little over a week as conditions are more than favorable to support TC genesis. If/once 99L develops a closed surface circulation then we'll have a much better idea of the future of the system. I'm personally not sold on development, but it definitely bares watching.





Exactly. I do believe it will shrink somewhat once it's detaches from the ITCZ after 50W
Here is an idea for all. Let's wait until we have another classified system out there before we start getting too excited. I have read that some are getting burnt out. If you allow yourself to get burned out over tropical systems, you seriously need to step back and assess your life. Some on here get all to worked up over something that CANNOT be controlled. It makes my day reading their posts.

Here is my take on the tropics today: Lets wait and see what happens and when something even comes close to threatening land, then act but not overreact. Yes, it is that simple!!
1296. Patrap
Fiona struggling.



Quoting 1281. JRRP7:




they're connected o3o
1298. JRRP7
1299. Patrap
Quoting 1295. IowaCaneLA:

Here is an idea for all. Let's wait until we have another classified system out there before we start getting too excited. I have read that some are getting burnt out. If you allow yourself to get burned out over tropical systems, you seriously need to step back and assess your life. Some on here get all to worked up over something that CANNOT be controlled. It makes my day reading their posts.

Here is my take on the tropics today: Lets wait and see what happens and when something even comes close to threatening land, then act but not overreact. Yes, it is that simple!!

LOL... sorry. Guess I've been here too long and know that will never happen. :-p
Quoting 1296. Patrap:

Fiona struggling.





Still looks better than Colin.
1302. Gearsts
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 2h2 hours ago Moraga, CA
GFS has significantly backed off on development of #99L (since yesterday) for the next week.
Quoting 1291. wunderkidcayman:



I think that will change
We'll see.
Quoting 1296. Patrap:

Fiona struggling.





Doing what it's supposed to be doing at this location...
By this evening it should be down to a TD which is
right on schedule....

Taco :o)
Quoting 1284. wunderkidcayman:



Nah I'd say it's big and broad with no definitive centre just yet



Yes



Yay recon mission
Quoting 1287. CW7859:



It looks like there's a LLC forming between 12 & 13 North, and between 37 & 38 West. Interestingly in that animated image you can see convection starting to fire off on the north/NW side of the circulation. Would be interesting to see if this continues throughout the day today.

Yes I would agree with you looks to be 12.5N near 38W moving west near 20mph. Within a larger broader circulation overall. Let's see if some low level convergence can later today and allow for some more convection to fire up.
Quoting 1276. SavannahStorm:



Reposting this again from earlier for the "Euro isn't on board" crowd. 60+% of the Euro Ensembles now develop a tropical cyclone.

New semester starts Monday and it looks like I will be glued to the blog instead!
12z GFS coming in a tad stronger with the spin of 99L once it nears the Lesser Antilles.
1308. ackee
Quoting 1289. wunderkidcayman:



I this this is a possibility
looking more likely to at least track way given how weak it his will take days to to get LLc
two weak systems ex and invest in the bahamas no telling
Blue(Low) not impressive affecting the US at this time.
Quoting 1308. ackee:

looking more likely to at least track way given how weak it his will take days to to get LLc

Actually broad circulation tends to have multiple small Low level swirls within the broader circulation. It's more about tighten up the vorticity.
1312. Gearsts
1313. Patrap
I would like to take this time to thank ALL my wunderground pals & gals who quickly sent prayers,funds,hope,and energy to those affectd by the rain with no name.

U r wunderful people.

And as I often remind myself and others, "He or she who stops to help another,is favored by God and the Universe."

1314. GatorWX
Quoting 1257. Grothar:

The GFS and the EURO are narrowing their models to come into closer agreement on both intensity and track. Don't expect any quick development of 99L any time soon. But I believe by next week 99L will become "embiggened"


I didn't give you permission to use my word.. adding a suffix and prefix. Didn't think I'd notice? :p
1315. beell
.
Old news removed.
:)
1316. LargoFl
12z GFS @90hrs, looks a bit stronger this time around...
1318. Patrap
I am putting together a group of 5-10 volunteers to make a Weds trip to Dehham Springs,La. to muck out homes thru Friday.


If your able and interested,shoot me a wu mail.

Thanx
1319. JRRP7
Quoting 1312. Gearsts:



looks like a bit stronger
Quoting 1302. Gearsts:

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 2h2 hours ago Moraga, CA
GFS has significantly backed off on development of #99L (since yesterday) for the next week.


wish means it comeig more in line with the Euro wish is good
1321. LargoFl
1322. Gearsts
Quoting 1319. JRRP7:


looks like a bit stronger
Open wave.
130 years ago today:


That's atleast 45 mph. Heck, even my Dvorak estimates go higher than 45 mph. #Fiona
Disturbance behind 99L may be the next major.
Quoting 1322. Gearsts:

Open wave.

Still has decent spin with it.
Quoting 1322. Gearsts:

Open wave.



I think it will probably bring it back in the Bahamas like it did on the last run
1328. Gearsts

With all of the dry air out over the Atlantic right now, it looks as though 99L is going to struggle just to stay alive and might even dissipate altogether before it has a chance to develop. Tropical cyclones are very fragile entities and if even one negatiave ingredient gets thrown into the mix they can easily collapse, fall apart and dissipate. Remember, for any one town or city to get hit with a Hurricane is always a very rare event.
12z GFS looks primed to develop 99L in the Bahamas at 144 hours.

12Z GFS very similar to the 00Z EURO so far, interesting... Wonder what the EURO will show this afternoon.. From what I can see, a weak low until north of PR, then development to possibly a category 1 storm in the Bahamas due to all the heat and possible conditions in the Bahamas.
1332. Gearsts
Anthony Sagliani ‏@anthonywx 8h8 hours ago
00Z GFS has come around to the ECMWF depiction of dry air/wind shear inhibiting 99L TCG thru at least 5-7 days.
Quoting 1330. CybrTeddy:

12z GFS looks primed to develop 99L in the Bahamas at 144 hours.




Right over Hispaniola. That's never good.
1334. barbamz

Impressive spin: the wave emerging from Africa.
Quoting 1329. HurriHistory:

With all of the dry air out over the Atlantic right now, it looks as though 99L is going to struggle just to stay alive and might even dissipate altogether before it has a chance to develop. Tropical cyclones are very fragile entities and if even one negatiave ingredient gets thrown into the mix they can easily collapse, fall apart and dissipate. Remember, for any one town or city to get hit with a Hurricane is always a very rare event.

Not for Fiona. Still surviving and intensifying even though it has heavy dry air and cool SST's.
1336. JRRP7
Quoting 1322. Gearsts:

Open wave.


comparado con la corrida anterior es algo mas fuerte...
Quoting 1220. Hurricanes101:



I would agree with the trend. This one is going to be very interesting. I do not see the Central or NW Caribbean in play with this one, but the East Coast and the Gulf could be. First focus is on what part of the Islands are impacted.


Don't forget that the Florida Keys/Florida straights are another possible option, such that if it were not not move through the Caribbean it could still be a Gulf TC, don't forget that there have been plenty of gulf system landfalls have originated from crossing through the straights or across SE FL.


Another thing to remember is that model guidance is a good amount improved from just 5 to 10 years ago. That isn't too say we can say by any means with surety where it's heading yet, but early model guidance forecast tracks have more value than they used to, and using the ensemble method helps too, of course.

Forecast intensity guidance still hasn't really improved much, so long term intensity forecasting is still basically a complete crap shoot even now.

1338. JRRP7
Quoting 1328. Gearsts:




lol ya hay que olvidarse de esas corridas con esteroides del GFS jajaja
creo que los puntos de referencia comienzan ahora a partir de la corrida 00z de hoy
1339. CW7859
Quoting 1333. Sfloridacat5:



Right over Hispaniola. That's never good.
Quoting 1330. CybrTeddy:

12z GFS looks primed to develop 99L in the Bahamas at 144 hours.




Looking like another So FL hit or near miss and into the gulf this run.
what we got is a nail-biting season
Quoting 1337. Jedkins01:



Don't forget that the Florida Keys/Florida straights are another possible option, such that if it were not not move through the Caribbean it could still be a Gulf TC, don't forget that there have been plenty of gulf system landfalls have originated from crossing through the straights or across SE FL.


Another thing to remember is that model guidance is a good amount improved from just 5 to 10 years ago. That isn't too say we can say by any means with surety where it's heading yet, but early model guidance forecast tracks have more value than they used to, and using the ensemble method helps too, of course.

Forecast intensity guidance still hasn't really improved much, so long term intensity forecasting is still basically a complete crap shoot even now.




Especially if 99L does not develop until around the Bahamas like the GFS is now hinting. Too late to turn away, but plenty of warm water to strengthen
1342. Gearsts
Quoting 1336. JRRP7:


comparado con la corrida anterior es algo mas fuerte...
Pues estamos comparando un open wave el la corrida anterior con otro open wave ahora.
1343. Grothar
Quoting 1314. GatorWX:



I didn't give you permission to use my word.. adding a suffix and prefix. Didn't think I'd notice? :p



embiggened© GatorWX 2014. ( I tried to copyright "twit", but Churchill beat me to it. )
Coming into the newer frames here, 99L is a tad stronger then the 06Z run... Just a tad...
The wave coming off Africa is much more impressive then 99L on the 12z GFS, coming in line with the Euro, I have more trust in what it shows now especially the first 5 days of the run.
12Z UKMET


NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 23.1N 74.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.08.2016 144 23.5N 76.3W 1009 25
"If" the system goes over Hispaniola that will save S. Florida, but if the system makes it into the GOM, all bets are off.
And based on the 12Z it looks like the GOM is definitely in play.
Quoting 1346. nrtiwlnvragn:

12Z UKMET


NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T 138 : 23.1N 74.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.08.2016 144 23.5N 76.3W 1009 25



right about where the gfs has it
1349. LargoFl
this is good news,models trending weaker............................................ ............
1350. Gearsts
Quoting 1349. LargoFl:

this is good news,models trending weaker............................................ ............
GFS now shows dry air being a big issue for development.
Quoting 1330. CybrTeddy:

12z GFS looks primed to develop 99L in the Bahamas at 144 hours.




Or not. Only showing a weak tropical depression near Florida by 186 hours.
1352. JRRP7
-3h

now

improving
99L is going to be weak for a long time, there is a lot of uncertainty with wind shear and dry air as it is passing near the islands, I think its going to take a positive phase of the MJO or a CCKW coming through to get this system going.
GFS @ 198 hours showing a decoupled system. Circulation @ 500mb is east of Andros near Nassau. Surface circulation is southwest of Andros.
1355. CW7859
Quoting 1351. CybrTeddy:



Or not. Only showing a weak tropical depression near Florida by 186 hours.


That there be hurricane rocket fuel north of the DR by the Bahamas. Bad scenario for any developing TC entering that area this time of year.



Link
Yeah the Euro may be slightly developing 99L but it saw something that the other models did not see at the time.It stopped developing it rapidly before it got to the islands because of inhabiting factors.Now the GFS is coming more into line with it.
1357. CW7859
Poor Bermuda seems to get whatever is left of Fiona and a strengthening 90L right behind it.



Link
1359. Patrap
"Swooosh"


Womp waàh'.....





Meanwhile the Canadian model is being like the Canadian model, lol.
Meanwhile, GFS is sneaking Hermione further west.

1362. JRRP7
this is not a joke!
The hurricane tracking west near Bermuda would be the African wave that's currently highlighted over Africa.

12Z GOM bound once again... However, have you notices a huge westward shift with the next storm?? Takes a west hook towards USA at 216 hours.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1366. ackee
So 12Z GfS as system TD near the Island then move system North west or WNW north of hispanola as open wave The Euro was showing no real development until Bahamas the EuRo always seems to beat all the other models that why for me the Euro is the best tropical model less for false alarm or development of system it tends to be steady not all over the place
It looks like the next storm steals 99Ls thunder
Quoting 1356. washingtonian115:

Yeah the Euro may be slightly developing 99L but it saw something that the other models did not see at the time.It stopped developing it rapidly before it got to the islands because of inhabiting factors.Now the GFS is coming more into line with it.


Absolutely thought and wrote that the other day that the Euro was on to something. Hard to ever go against it no matter what everything else shows. Still some time to watch though.
Fails to do anything with 99L but shows a very potent system nearing Bermuda (90L).
99L not intensifying at all in the Bahamas doesn't really make any sense, IMO. Look at the ULAC the GFS is showing establishing itself over the system. May have something to do with the massive hurricane near Bermuda?

Quoting 1364. reedzone:

12Z GOM bound once again... However, have you notices a huge westward shift with the next storm?? Takes a west hook towards USA at 216 hours.


Yes. I think that is something to focus upon. Regardless of what develops where, both models (GFS, ECMWF) are indicating that a ridge of high pressure will build to the north of them driving them towards/into the CONUS. That is a trend that I definitely hope does not pan out.
1372. CW7859
Quoting 1362. JRRP7:

this is not a joke!



LMAO! Ralph!!
1373. GatorWX
Quoting 1370. CybrTeddy:

99L not intensifying at all in the Bahamas doesn't really make any sense, IMO. Look at the ULAC the GFS is showing establishing itself over the system. May have something to do with the massive hurricane near Bermuda?




What in tarnations? Hmmmph
1374. ackee
Quoting 1362. JRRP7:

this is not a joke!

Iol I love this so true
1375. vis0

Quoting 954. pureet1948:

Just when I thought I was safe in the Gulf of Mexico:


when was that? between  4:50:32s:45ms and 4:50:32s:47ms (pulled out my chrono stop watch in the spirit of Olympics...

PS...if a storm is near Bahamas no one (in the Northern western Hem) will remember the last week of the Olympics)
 
i poke (fun) cause i care

IT'S A CATEGORY 5.. i mean it's only a weak C4. Still.... Massachussets totally must be loving those major hurricane winds.
1377. 19N81W


This sucks
Just nasty