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Warmest July--and Warmest Month--On Record for the Globe

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 8:11 PM GMT on August 17, 2016

July 2016 was Earth's warmest July since record keeping began in 1880, said NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) on Wednesday. In the NOAA database, July 2016 came in 0.87°C (1.15°F) warmer than the 20th-century average for July, beating the previous record for July, set in 2015, by 0.06°C. NASA also reported the warmest July in its database.

Even more impressive, July 2016 was also Earth’s warmest month in recorded history in absolute terms. This is because July is the planet’s hottest month of the year overall. Land areas heat and cool more readily than the ocean surface, and most of Earth’s land area is in the Northern Hemisphere, where summer arrives in the middle of the year. The global average surface temperature is normally about 3-4°C (5-7°F) warmer in July than in January. In relative terms, February 2016 was Earth’s warmest month on record, according to NASA, since it came in at 1.32°C (2.38°F) warmer than the 20th-century average for that month. NOAA rated March 2016 as the month with the warmest anomaly on record, at 1.22°C (2.20°F). Both of these effects--relative and absolute--can be seen in Figure 1 below.


Figure 1. The departure from average (compared to temperatures from 1980 - 2015) of Earth’s surface temperature from 1880 to 2016, with the seasonal cycle left in. July 2016 was Earth’s hottest month on record in absolute terms, while February 2016 had the largest departure from average (in relative terms) from average of any month in the historical record. Image credit: Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies.


Figure 2. Departure of temperature from average for July 2016, the warmest July for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Pockets of record warmth were observed across every major ocean basin and over a few land areas. Image credit: National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).

A year-plus streak of global records
uly 2016 marked the 15th consecutive month that NOAA’s global monthly temperature record was broken, which is the longest such streak since global temperature records began in 1880. The record-warm July extended to both global ocean and global land temperatures in the NOAA database. For the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere, global satellite-measured temperatures in July 2016 were the 2nd warmest for any July in the 38-year record, according to the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH).

With the powerful 2015-16 El Niño event now over, the impressive global warmth in recent months can mostly be attributed to the steady build-up of heat-trapping greenhouse gases due to human activities. NOAA’s global surface temperature for the year so far (January-July 2016) is 1.03°C (1.85°F) above the 20th-century average and a remarkable 0.19°C (0.34°F) warmer than the previous January-to-July record, set in 2015 (see Figure 3 below). Following the 1997-98 “super” El Niño, monthly global temperature records were set through August 1998. The departure of the equally strong 2015-16 El Niño and the possible arrival of La Niña late this year should allow temperatures to drop slightly, perhaps breaking our string of record-warm months sometime in the near future. However, temperatures would have to plummet between now and December in order to keep 2016 from becoming the warmest year in global record keeping. According to Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies, there is a 99 percent chance that 2016 will end up as Earth’s third consecutive hottest year on record.


Figure 3. Departure from average for the global January-through-July temperature for the years 1880 - 2016. This year has seen by far the warmest temperatures on record for the year-to-date period. Image credit: NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).

Weak La Niña favored for this fall
El Niño dissipated in May 2016, giving way to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions as sea surface temperatures declined across the tropical Pacific Ocean. According to NOAA's August ENSO forecast from the Climate Prediction Center, a weak La Niña is favored to develop during the August - October peak of hurricane season and last through the Northern Hemisphere winter. The La Niña odds in the August outlook were 55 - 60%, which were lower than the 75% odds given in their June forecast.

Arctic sea ice hits its third lowest July extent on record
The rate of July sea ice loss was below average last month, due to cool and stormy conditions in the Arctic. As a result, sea ice extent in July 2016 was just the third lowest in the 38-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). So far, March and July have been the only months in 2016 that has not set a new record low for Arctic-wide sea ice extent (March 2016 was second lowest, just above 2015). A new record low September ice extent "now appears to be unlikely", NSIDC said in their August update. However, the “Great Arctic Cyclone of 2016” is currently spinning over the Arctic, as Bob Henson detailed in a Tuesday afternoon post. This massive storm could break up the ice, leading to lower ice extent in September than would otherwise have been observed.

Three billion-dollar weather disasters for July 2016: Typhoon Nepartak, China floods, Netherlands severe weather
According to the July 2016 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield, two billion-dollar weather-related disaster hit the planet in July: $1.5 billion in damage from Typhoon Nepartak's impact on the Philippines, Taiwan, and China; and flooding in northeast China on July 16 - 24 that cost $5 billion. An additional $6 billion in flood damage occurred along the Yangtze River basin, bringing the total flood damage in that region from monsoon rains that began in May to a staggering $28 billion dollars--the third most expensive non-U.S. weather related disaster in recorded history. Additionally, a severe weather outbreak in the Netherlands during June accumulated enough damage claims to be rated a billion-dollar disaster by the end of July. Between January - July 2016, there were 21 billion-dollar weather disasters--one fewer than occurred during January - July 2013, the year that ended up with the most billion-dollar weather disasters on record: 41. Here is the tally of billion-dollar weather disasters for January - July 2016:

1) Flooding, Yangtze Basin, China, 5/1 - 8/1, $28.0 billion, 475 killed
2) Flooding, Germany, France, Austria, Poland, 5/26 - 6/6, $5.5 billion, 17 killed
3) Drought, India, 1/1 - 6/30, $5.0 billion, 0 killed
4) Flooding, Northeast China 7/16 - 7/24, $5.0 billion, 289 killed
5) Wildfire, Fort McMurray, Canada, 5/2- 6/1, $5.0 billion, 0 killed
6) Severe Weather, Plains-Southeast U.S., 4/10 - 4/13, $3.75 billion, 1 killed
7) Flooding, China, 6/18 - 6/23, $2.3 billion, 68 killed
8) Severe Weather, Rockies-Plains-Southeast-Midwest U.S., 3/22 - 3/25, $2.2 billion, 0 killed
9) Winter Weather, East Asia, 1/20 - 1/26, $2.0 billion, 116 killed
10) Tropical Cyclone Roanu, Sri Lanka, India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, China, 5/14 - 5/21, $1.7 billion, 135 killed
11) Severe Weather, Plains-Midwest U.S., 4/29 - 5/3, $1.6 billion, 6 killed
12) Drought, Zimbabwe, 1/1 - 3/1, $1.6 billion, 0 killed
3) Typhoon Nepartak, Philippines, Taiwan, China, 7/8 - 7/9, $1.5 billion, 111 killed
13) Severe Weather, Plains-Southeast U.S., 3/17 - 3/18, $1.3 billion, 0 killed
14) Flooding, Argentina and Uruguay, 4/4 - 4/10, $1.3 billion, 0 killed
15) Severe Weather, Plains-Midwest-Southeast-Northeast U.S., 3/4 - 3/12, $1.25 billion, 6 killed
16) Severe Weather, Plains-Midwest-Southeast-Northeast U.S., 2/22 - 2/25, $1.2 billion, 10 killed
17) Severe Weather, Plains-Midwest U.S., 5/21 - 5/28, $1.1 billion, 1 killed
18) Severe Weather, Netherlands, 6/23 - 6/24, $1.1 billion, 0 killed
19) Flooding, Plains-Rockies U.S., 4/15 - 4/19, $1.0 billion, 9 killed
20) Tropical Cyclone Winston, Fiji, 2/16 - 2/22, $1.0 billion, 44 killed
21) Winter Weather, Eastern U.S., 1/21 - 1/24, $1.0 billion, 58 killed


Figure 3. This summer's Yangtze River basin floods in China are the third most expensive weather-related natural disaster on record outside of the U.S., according to the International Disaster database, EM-DAT.

And here are the three disasters from July 2016 in more detail:


Disaster 1. Severe thunderstorms swept through the Netherlands, causing hail, wind and isolated flash flood damage in South Holland and Utrecht provinces on June 23 - 24. In this image, we an arcus cloud from a severe thunderstorm over the A2 between Utrecht and Amsterdam on 23 June 2016. Image credit: ROBIN VAN LONKHUIJSEN/AFP/Getty Images.


Disaster 2. Super Typhoon Nepartak hit Taiwan on July 7 as a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds, killing 3 and causing $21.1 million in damage. After weakening to a tropical storm, Nepartak made landfall in mainland China, where it killed at least 83 people and caused $1.51 billion in damage. Here, we see a radar image of Super Typhoon Nepartak taken at 11:30 am EDT July 7, 2016 (11:30 pm local time in Taiwan), when Nepartak was a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. Image credit: Taiwan CWB.


Disaster 3. Torrential rains fell in northern sections of China from July 16-24, leaving at least 289 people dead or missing, and causing $5 billion in damage. The hardest-hit provinces included Beijing, Hebei, Henan, Shanxi, Tianjin, and Shandong. More than 300,000 homes were damaged or destroyed and as many as 1.2 million hectares (3.0 million acres) of cropland was submerged. This photo taken on July 21, 2016 shows people making their way through a flooded area in Changping District in Beijing. Image credit: STR/AFP/Getty Images.

Bountiful but deadly monsoon rains continue in India
India, whose $5 billion drought was Earth's second most expensive weather-related natural disaster of the first half of 2016, is finally getting a good monsoon after two straight years of poor rains. According to the India Meteorological Department, monsoon rains during the period July 1 - August 16, 2016 were right at average. However, July monsoon floods left more than 230 people dead or missing in India, Nepal, Pakistan, Indonesia and Afghanistan as tens of thousands of homes were destroyed.

Notable global heat and cold marks set in July 2016
Hottest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: 54.0°C (129.2°F) at Mitribah, Kuwait, 21 July*
Coldest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: -30.5°C (-22.9°F) at Geo Summit, Greenland, 31 July**
Hottest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: 41.1°C (106.0°F) at Matupa, Brazil, 11 July
Coldest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: -82.4°C (-116.3°F) at Concordia, Antarctica, 8 July
(Courtesy of Maximiliano Herrera.)

** Ties lowest temperature ever recorded in July in the entire Northern Hemisphere.

Major weather stations that set (not tied) new all-time heat or cold records in July 2016 (Courtesy of Maximiliano Herrera)
Beru (Kiribati) max. 35.2°C, 2 July
Owase (Japan) max. 38.6 °C,3 July
Ruoqiang (China) max. 43.9°C, 3 July
Shahdad (Iran) max. 51.7°C, 4 July
Indio Hatuey (Cuba) max 38.2°C, 5 July
Ulan Ude (Russia) max. 40.6°C, 8 July
Krasnyj Chikoj (Russia) max. 39.3°C, 8 July
Iquique (Chile) max. 33.4°C, 8 July
La Paz (Mexico) max. 44.0°C, 10 July
Xi Ujimqin Qi (China) max. 39.7°C, 10 July
Deadhorse Airport (Alaska,USA) max. 29.4°C, 13 July
Kuparuk (Alaska,USA) max. 29.4°C, 13 July
San Jon (New Mexico,USA) max. 43.9°C, 13 July
Tindouf (Algeria) max. 48.3°C, 15 July
Ploumanach (France) max. 36.2°C, 19 July
Cap de la Hague (France) max. 32.3°C, 19 July
Salahaddin (Iraq) max. 41.5°C, 20 July
Basra (Iraq) max. 53.4°C, 21 July: New national record high for Iraq; increased to 53.9°C on 22 July
Kut al Yai (Iraq) max. 52.0°C, 21 July
Amarah (Iraq) max. 52.2°C, 21 July
Kanaqin (Iraq) max. 52.6°C, 21 July
Mitribah (Kuwait) max. 54.0°C, 21 July: New national record high for Kuwait *
Al Salmi (Kuwait) max. 50.4°C, 21 July; increased to 50.9°C on 22 July
Dunhuang (China) max. 43.1°C, 30 June
Mazong Shan (China) max. 36.2°C, 30 June

Notes from Maximiliano Herrera:
* 54.0°C at Mitribah is a new record of highest temperature for Asia (being the same value reached at Tirats Tsvi in 1942 highly unreliable- in my opinion around 4-5°C overestimated). It also ties the 54.0°C or 129.2°F (although officially 129°F) set at Death Valley, California on 30 June 2013 as the world record of the highest reliable temperature ever recorded. (The 134°F official record in Greenland Ranch are in my opinion around 12°F to 15°F overestimated). Therefore, It is also a new world record for July.

On 9 July Hong Kong tied its record of highest temperature ever with 37.9°C at Happy Valley. The same value was recorded at the same location in 2015.

On 22 July, Delhoran, Iran recorded 53.0°C, tying the Iranian highest reliable temperature on record which was set at the same station and at Gotvand.

Four all-time national heat records set or tied in July 2016
Four nations or territories--Kuwait, Iraq, Iran, and Hong Kong--set or tied records in July 2016 for their all-time hottest temperature on record. From January through August 16, 2016, a total of sixteen nations or territories tied or set all-time records for their hottest temperature in recorded history. Only 2010 has had more all-time heat records set--seventeen. Also, one all-time cold temperature record has been set so far in 2016 (in Hong Kong.) "All-time" record here refers to the warmest or coldest temperature ever reliably reported in a nation or territory. The period of record varies from country to country and station to station, but it is typically a few decades to a century or more. Most nations do not maintain official databases of extreme temperature records, so the national temperature records reported here are in many cases not official. Our data source is international weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, one of the world's top climatologists, who maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website. If you reproduce this list of extremes, please cite Maximiliano Herrera as the primary source of the weather records. Here are 2016's all-time heat and cold records as of August 16:

Iraq set its all-time hottest record on July 22, 2016, when the mercury hit 53.9°C (129.0°F) at Basrah.

Iran tied its all-time hottest record on July 22, 2016, when the mercury hit 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Delhoran.

Kuwait set its all-time hottest record on July 21, 2016, when the mercury hit 54.0°C (129.2°F) at Mitribah.

Hong Kong Territory (China) tied its all-time hottest record on July 9, 2016, when the mercury hit 37.9°C (100.2°F) at Happy Valley.

Niger set its all-time hottest record on June 8, 2016, when the mercury hit 49.0°C (120.2°F) at Bilma.

Palau tied its all-time hottest record on June 8, 2016, when the mercury hit 34.4°C (93.9°F) at Koror AWS.

India set its all-time hottest record on May 19, 2016, when the mercury hit 51.0°C (123.8°F) at Phalodi.

Maldives set its all-time hottest record on April 30, 2016, when the mercury hit 35.0°C (95.0°F) at Hanimaadhoo.

Thailand set its all-time hottest record on April 28, 2016, when the mercury hit 44.6°C (112.3°F) at Mae Hong Son.

Cambodia set its all-time hottest record on April 15, 2016, when the mercury hit 42.6°C (108.7°F) at Preah Vihea.

Burkina Faso set its all-time hottest record on April 13, 2016, when the mercury hit 47.5°C (117.5°F) at Dori.

Laos set its all-time hottest record on April 12, 2016, when the mercury hit 42.3°C (108.1°F) at Seno.

Vanuatu in the South Pacific set its all-time hottest record on February 8, 2016, when the mercury hit 36.2°C (97.2°F) at Lamap Malekula.

Tonga set its all-time hottest record on February 1, 2016, when the mercury hit 35.5°C (95.9°F) at Niuafoou.

Wallis and Futuna Territory (France) set a new territorial heat record with 35.8°C (96.4°F) on January 10, 2016 at Futuna Airport. This is the second year in a row that Wallis and Futuna has beaten its all-time heat mark; the previous record was a 35.5°C (95.9°F) reading on January 19, 2015 at the Futuna Airport.

Botswana set its all-time hottest record on January 7, 2016, when the mercury hit 43.8°C (110.8°F) at Maun.

Hong Kong Territory (China) set its all-time coldest mark on January 24, 2016, when the mercury dipped to -6.0°C (21.2°F) at Tai Mo Shan.

TD 6 likely to become Tropical Storm Fiona
Tropical Depression 6 in the remote eastern Atlantic is likely to become Tropical Storm Fiona by later Wednesday, according to the National Hurricane Center. See our post from Wednesday morning for more on TD 6's status and outlook. We'll be back Thursday with our next update.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 480. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The environment is favorable for Fiona to develop substantially in the subtropics if it makes it there. We've seen this play before. The storm has a mountain to climb for the next 4 days though.


It's funny how this has often been the the case the last few years as far as the sub tropics being more favorable than the tropics. This season has a lot left to over come, but a lot could and may change.


CDO getting cooler and some improved banding to the NE
Quoting 457. Patrap:

A happy 80th birthday to Margaret Hamilton who wrote all the lunar landing program code for Apollo 11.







And thank you.


Back then, I bet there were plenty of men who wanted that to remain hidden/unknown.
Quoting 498. Jedkins01:

I was just filming an amazing lightning show on my back porch here in Tallahassee, when lightning hit no more than 50 yards away in some trees on the edge of the apartment complex, it went completely white all around and saw sparks fly in the tree area, my ear drums nearly burst and hurt quite bad. That was the most fear I've ever felt, my gosh that was too close even though I was under a relatively safe area!

I still have the shakes, yikes...


The weird thing is, this is some the best lightning I've seen here, and the cell doesn't even look that strong on radar. Very strong winds and intense rainfall as well. The lightning is nuts though. I've seen even worse a number of times before in the Tampa bay area, but this is surprisingly impressive in of itself.
Glad you are safe and please be careful. Nice, did you get any long exposure shots and what kind of camera do you have? We had a lightning strike a house in Largo tonight and it sparked a fire.

Largo house fire caused by lightning
Dropped to 0/10, probably due to the GFS.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 180540
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fiona located over the central tropical Atlantic.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off of the coast of Africa on
Saturday. Development, if any, of this system is expected to be
slow to occur as the wave moves generally westward through a
marginally favorable environment.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
Quoting 503. Jedkins01:



Back then, I bet there were plenty of men who wanted that to remain hidden/unknown.
Happy Birthday to her and ironically, it's my birthday too.
Quoting 506. HurricaneAndre:

Happy Birthday to her and ironically, it's my birthday too.

Happy birthday!
Quoting 507. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


Happy birthday!
Thank you.
Quoting 497. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:

A quick question: what are the perfect conditions for a tropical cyclone to make landfall in new jersey? Like track and ssts and wind shear. br
NICE! Lots of updates recently.

If Fiona misses the weakness north soon, She will be heading west soon.
Quoting 510. swflurker:

NICE! Lots of updates recently.

If Fiona misses the weakness north soon, She will be heading west soon.


It will start heading NW soon and also Fiona is looking even better now developing a even better circulation definite moderate to strong tropical storm
Quoting 494. James1981cane:



They have done 55 MPH before it will be 50 or 60 MPH because it has a great CDO and is developing alot of convection

The winds in mph are actually calculated by converting knots to mph. 1 kt=1.852 km/h, and 1 mi=1.609344 km (exactly) gives a factor of 1.852/1.609344 = 1.150779.
The estimated maximum sustained winds are rounded to the nearest 5-kt, and the same goes to mph when converted. Using this fact, 45 kt = 51.785 mph ~ 50 mph and 50 kt = 57.539 mph ~ 60 mph. Therefore, 55 mph cannot exist in NHC documents.
18/0545 UTC 15.6N 39.7W T2.0/2.5 FIONA
Quoting 516. washingaway:




Its looking good and convection is on the increase
The convective blow up over Fiona is now weakening
Quoting 514. wunderkidcayman:

18/0545 UTC 15.6N 39.7W T2.0/2.5 FIONA

I still don't get how it is "T2.5". Even Levi is done with those very conservative numbers. ADT yesterday showed 60 mph winds and my Dvorak estimates were extremely close. ADT has made it weaken less than 10 mph today but it seems to be increasing again (maybe day and night SST differences beacuse of the temperature.).
Quoting 519. wunderkidcayman:

The convective blow up over Fiona is now weakening


It isn't weakening its expanding
Quoting 520. NunoLava1998:


I still don't get how it is "T2.5". Even Levi is done with those very conservative numbers. ADT yesterday showed 60 mph winds and my Dvorak estimates were extremely close. ADT has made it weaken less than 10 mph today but it seems to be increasing again (maybe day and night SST differences beacuse of the temperature.).


Fiona i think will have 50 MPH winds next update possibly 60 MPH it is developing fast or at least it has tonight
Quoting 522. James1981cane:



Fiona i think will have 50 MPH winds next update possibly 60 MPH it is developing fast or at least it has tonight

Probably not, beacuse they use "ASCAT", which i don't even think shows tropical storm force winds. I swear, it is pretty inaccurate.
Quoting 523. NunoLava1998:


Probably not, beacuse they use "ASCAT", which i don't even think shows tropical storm force winds. I swear, it is pretty inaccurate.


Not always i believe it will be at least 50 MPh
Quoting 524. James1981cane:



Not always i believe it will be at least 50 MPh

Well, according to the 06Z ATCF estimate, Fiona's strength is 40 kt, or 45 mph. Usually the NHC maintains the ATCF estimates unless there are sudden changes. Since there were no significant changes during the past two hours, I believe the intensity will be set at 40 kt.

FYI, the NHC does not use just the SAB numbers; they use TAFB or a blend of TAFB and SAB estimates and/or the ADT and ASCAT estimates when aircraft data is unavailable.
Quoting 525. Bobbyweather:


Well, according to the 06Z ATCF estimate, Fiona's strength is 40 kt, or 45 mph. Usually the NHC maintains the ATCF estimates unless there are sudden changes. Since there were no significant changes during the past two hours, I believe the intensity will be set at 40 kt.

FYI, the NHC does not use just the SAB numbers; they use TAFB or a blend of TAFB and SAB estimates and/or the ADT and ASCAT estimates when aircraft data is unavailable.

They are ignoring the ADT estimates. ADT showed 60 mph and i used the Dvorak technique on Fiona and i still got 60 mph. While NHC only had used the models and ASCAT.
...FIONA A LITTLE STRONGER...

5:00 AM AST Thu Aug 18
Location: 16.2°N 40.3°W
Moving: WNW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph

EDIT: This time the NHC didn't ignore the ADT estimates. (45 30 45)/3=40, thus the 40 kt estimate.
ADT trims T3.6 (DT) to T3.0 (ADT). I got a T3.5-T4 ish value with Fiona. If it's not upgraded, i'm gonna be pretty mad.
Quoting 529. Bobbyweather:


EDIT: This time they didn't ignore them. (45 30 45)/3=40, thus the 40 kt estimate. Also, you know that T3.0 is 45 kt, right?

I know. And my recent estimates are even higher (atleast T3.5, ADT has T3.6 but trims it to T3.1 to maximize how close it is to the real amount.).
Quoting 528. Bobbyweather:

...FIONA A LITTLE STRONGER...

5:00 AM AST Thu Aug 18
Location: 16.2°N 40.3°W
Moving: WNW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph


Good
Quoting 531. NunoLava1998:


I know. And my recent estimates are even higher (atleast T3.5, ADT has T3.6 but trims it to T3.1 to maximize how close it is to the real amount.).

Then you know that raw estimates are not the real intensity. And you must realize that the NHC is not going to take your estimates into account; your so-called "hurricane center" is not a reliable source. So stop blaming the NHC for not upgrading Fiona to a higher intensity.
Quoting 533. Bobbyweather:


Then you know that raw estimates are not the real intensity. And you must realize that the NHC is not going to take your estimates into account; your so-called "hurricane center" is not a reliable source. So stop blaming the NHC for not upgrading Fiona to a higher intensity.


Lol calm down stop arguing over Fiona
Quoting 534. James1981cane:



Lol calm down stop arguing over Fiona

It's not just Fiona. The same thing happened when Earl was around.
Quoting 535. Bobbyweather:


It's not just Fiona. The same thing happened when Earl was around.


I wasn't here for Earl but on vacation did it make category 2 status ?
Quoting 536. James1981cane:



I wasn't here for Earl but on vacation did it make category 2 status ?
No, but it did get to 80mph though.
Quoting 536. James1981cane:



I wasn't here for Earl but on vacation did it make category 2 status ?

Unfortunately, no. It topped at 80 mph. It had a central pressure of a Cat 2 though, at 979 mb.
539. vis0
In reading the opinion that cat1 "are fun" (in comparing winds) sadly that is becoming a thing of the past due to the warmer atmosphere.

Yesteryears TS to CAT1 where mainly winds under 80mph/128kph.  Sure one could still be hurt by flying "things" but some took that chance to be "in" it. Now it can be a 25mph look like that star trek (TV) series "sparkling monster" (seemingly not much there)  that Jenna T. Kirk has to fight yet will cause devastating floods.  Most chasers can take 75-85 mph gusts but can't fight 1 to 2 foot of water moving at 15mph/24kph.
Quoting 528. Bobbyweather:

...FIONA A LITTLE STRONGER...

5:00 AM AST Thu Aug 18
Location: 16.2°N 40.3°W
Moving: WNW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph


NO SURPRISE THERE...AFTER AN INITIAL WANING PERIOD EARLY LAST NIGHT ITS CORE AND OVERALL STRUCTURE SEEMS TO HAVE IMPROVED QUITE A BIT. THE FOCUS NOW IS ON ITS POTENTIAL MOVEMENT, HOPEFULLY IT WILL STICK TO EARLIER MODEL PROJECTIONS...
GOD BLESS!
Quoting 538. Bobbyweather:


Unfortunately, no. It topped at 80 mph. It had a central pressure of a Cat 2 though, at 979 mb.

ok thanks
Quoting 537. HurricaneAndre:

No, but it did get to 80mph though.

ok thanks
Getting a little stronger.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 AUG 2016 Time : 091500 UTC
Lat : 16:13:44 N Lon : 40:20:11 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 /1003.2mb/ 47.0kt
The NHC shifted the cone North! Not south!!
Quoting 544. luvtogolf:

The NHC shifted the cone North! Not south!!


yeah we know
cant complain. africa is getting life threatening rains with crazy flooding and all that left is alitttle needle storm with fifty mile an hr winds. thank you dust.
The wave immediately behind Fiona also seems to be trying to get its organizational act together. If it continues intensifying at this rate it could be a significant weather event for the islands down the road...Time will tell.

God Bless!
Baby Come Back,only you could see,I was wrong in everything about you.
549. MahFL
TS Fiona has moved into range of the hurricane coverage area, so we can zoom in :

Good morning all.



I see my gestimate of 20N 50W is at the edge of the cone of uncertainty ...

Quoting 547. NatureIsle:

The wave immediately behind Fiona also seems to be trying to get its organizational act together. If it continues intensifying at this rate it could be a significant weather event for the islands down the road...Time will tell.

God Bless!
I notice NHC has dropped it completely ... for now, anyway. This may be like Earl's parent wave, which didn't do much to garner attention until it neared the Antilles ...

Looks like the next 2 waves comming off africa will follow fiona..
the next wave comming off africa should disapate quickly and the wave behind might develop and follow behind fiona
next 2 waves are gonna follow fiona
next 2 waves are gonna follow fiona
555. beell
duplicate removed.
The closest Fiona is on Dvorak is a T5 and it even isn't that similar, so i'm just gonna use ADT estimates which are pretty close to reality.
557. beell

Current CIMSS Shearus Belligerenti
(clickable)
558. Siker
Much of the development potential has been focused on Pouch 22L (the wave over Africa) for the past few days, but it would be smart not to sleep on 21L (the wave directly behind Fiona).

Models seem to be slowly deciding that this will not get totally shredded /elongated between Fiona and 22L. The latest Euro tracks a distinct area of vorticity across the MDR and into the northern Lesser Antilles. The GFS has slowly trended more defined / separated with this wave, but is currently the weakest solution. Both of these models had their ensemble support for this wave increase at 00z. 20/20 members of the 06z GFS ensembles develop a low pressure area from this wave by day 5, with ~10/20 developing a tropical cyclone.

00z CMC and 00z UKMET both develop this into a tropical storm.
Fiona is very small.

"Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center."
I see the GFS has dropped the Florida doom scenario. Typical.
Quoting 560. hurricanewatcher61:

I see the GFS has dropped the Florida doom scenario. Typical.
That is a good thing isn't it?.. Fiona has set the road and track for future waves or storms
562. beell
TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016
500 AM AST THU AUG 18 2016

Deep convection associated with Fiona has increased with the approach of the diurnal convective maximum, and the cyclone's cloud pattern is better organized than it was yesterday. Satellite data suggest that the low-level center is now located underneath an irregularly shaped central dense overcast, while a few broken banding features have recently developed over the eastern semicircle of the circulation. Satellite classifications are T3.0/45 kt and T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB, respectively, while ADT values are around T3.0. A blend of these data is used to increase the initial wind speed to 40 kt.

Global models indicate that large-scale conditions should be adequately conducive to support some additional strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours. However, after that time, a substantially drier atmosphere and increasing southwesterly shear associated with the mid-oceanic trough are expected to induce weakening, even though sea surface temperatures will be higher. Although not shown explicitly in the forecast, atmospheric conditions could become so hostile that Fiona would degenerate into a remnant low later in the forecast period as depicted in the ECMWF model. The new NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous one and the bulk of the guidance in the short term but is a little lower after 48 hours.

Fiona has been moving west-northwestward to northwestward into a weakness in the mid-level subtropical ridge between 40w and 50w, and the initial motion estimate is 300/14. Fiona should maintain a similar heading but at a reduced forward speed once it becomes a shallower cyclone in a few days and is steered around the Atlantic low-level subtropical ridge. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the north of the previous one, mostly after 48 hours and largely in response to a significant shift in the latest ECMWF solution. The forecast track lies on the far eastern side of the guidance envelope, well to the left of the multi-model consensus.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
possible storm in 2 weeks comming off africa.. should follow fiona and maybe get big
Yes it is! Don't want it near our coast. But the GFS tends to do this alot on the model runs.
Quoting 561. windyhairday:

That is a good thing isn't it?.. Fiona has set the road and track for future waves or storms
So dry east of us. :\\
Quoting 558. Siker:

Much of the development potential has been focused on Pouch 22L (the wave over Africa) for the past few days, but it would be smart not to sleep on 21L (the wave directly behind Fiona).

Models seem to be slowly deciding that this will not get totally shredded /elongated between Fiona and 22L. The latest Euro tracks a distinct area of vorticity across the MDR and into the northern Lesser Antilles. The GFS has slowly trended more defined / separated with this wave, but is currently the weakest solution. Both of these models had their ensemble support for this wave increase at 00z. 20/20 members of the GFS ensembles develop a low pressure area from this wave by day 5, with ~10/20 developing a tropical cyclone.

00z CMC and 00z UKMET both develop this into a tropical storm.
I wouldn't be surprised. This is the kind of system we were expecting more of, anyway. However, that is 7 - 10 days down the road; I suppose we should be paying more attention again around the 25th ....
thank godness for that weakness most of the storms the next month should help any possible future storms track like fiona and have no land threats in the conus
Quoting 565. CaribBoy:

So dry east of us. :\\
most of the atlantic is full of dry dusty air as seen on water vapor... gonna be tough for anything to develop this year
Quoting 568. windyhairday:

most of the atlantic is full of dry dusty air as seen on water vapor... gonna be tough for anything to develop this year


For the time being, August is going to be rather quiet. However, this year we may see a "late" hurricane season, with activity mainly in September and October, possibly even November.
570. Siker
06z NAVGEM also develops Pouch 21L, FWIW.
571. Siker
Add the FIM-9 and the parent runs of the HWRF and GFDL to the list of models developing 21L. It's basically every unreliable model on the planet vs. the GFS and the Euro, lol.
fiona has zika she looks worn out this morning
i dont see her being much of a surf producer unless she transforms into a larger and more powerful system. sorry haole boy
574. beell
Consistent over 3-4 runs in the GFS that the leading wave will be approaching the Lesser Antilles as a recognizable feature in about 5 days. Trailing wave on a different track. "Filonely" to the north.


08/18 06Z GFS 700 mb vor @ 120 hrs


08/18 06Z GFS 850-200 mb wind shear/low centers @ 120 hrs
10% on the next wave still.
Quoting 570. Siker:

06z NAVGEM also develops Pouch 21L, FWIW.

That's one to watch. The parent HWRF domain also shows it. And there's a decent ensemble signal as well, not only on the GEFS but also and especially the normally conservative Euro ensembles.

Doesn't the GFS start to lose it though after the 200hr mark?
Quoting 574. beell:

Consistent over 3-4 runs in the GFS that the leading wave will be approaching the Lesser Antilles as a recognizable feature in about 5 days. Trailing wave on a different track. "Filonely" to the north.


08/18 06Z GFS 700 mb vor @ 120 hrs


08/18 06Z GFS 850-200 mb wind shear/low centers @ 120 hrs
10-4 Fiona no Fabian. Window of hope if she goes stationary and enlarges or even goes hybrid/subtropical. She may get torn apart in the next 36. At least we have had some action with more to come.

Quoting 573. islander101010:

i dont see her being much of a surf producer unless she transforms into a larger and more powerful system. sorry haole boy
579. beell
Interesting cast-off from Fiona @ 90 hrs. Anybody's guess as to whether this piece of vorticity is real or a spurious GFS artifact.


08/18 06Z GFS 700 mb vort @ 90 hrs
islander...you should know this one.

What do you call a haole try speak the pidgin?

Quoting 573. islander101010:

i dont see her being much of a surf producer unless she transforms into a larger and more powerful system. sorry haole boy
581. beell
Quoting 577. hurricanewatcher61:

Doesn't the GFS start to lose it though after the 200hr mark?


Yes it does. Are you still going to watch for it?
:)
Quoting 569. MoneyHurricane:



For the time being, August is going to be rather quiet. However, this year we may see a "late" hurricane season, with activity mainly in September and October, possibly even November.
Two TS, one of which becomes a hurricane, is not what I'd describe as a "quiet" August, but YMMW ....

I still expect we'll see at least one more named storm, if not 2, before the end of the month. Conditions are not super, but they're good enough to allow at least another couple Twaves to spin up.
583. Siker
Quoting 579. beell:

Interesting cast-off from Fiona @ 90 hrs. Anybody's guess as to whether this piece of vorticity is real or a spurious GFS artifact.


08/18 06Z GFS 700 mb vort @ 90 hrs


I also noticed that on the GFS over the past day or so while hawking vorticity forecasts for 21L. It's evident on PWAT as a narrow band of drier air.
584. beell
Quoting 583. Siker:



I also noticed that on the GFS over the past day or so while hawking vorticity forecasts for 21L. It's evident on PWAT as a narrow band of drier air.


It does look pretty arid!
Good Morning Folks; it's a dry world out there ahead and behind of Fiona; illustrates the point about having a healthy ITCZ to help feed moisture into a storm as it lifts out north of 10N.  In the case of Fiona, all she has is a vapor trail behind her.

FYI: C-SPAN (radio & TV) is having their Washington Journal call-in with the Republican former congressman (replaced in the last election by Trey Gowdy) who is arguing for a valid republican response to AGW, not a denier. Some of the callers are... interesting. He's treating every caller with respect, even the ones with obvious tinfoil hats. Give it a listen, maybe even call in.
Some morning entertainment
Quoting 585. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning Folks; it's a dry world out there ahead and behind of Fiona; illustrates the point about having a healthy ITCZ to help feed moisture into a storm as it lifts out north of 10N.  In the case of Fiona, all she has is a vapor trail behind her.


Someone said july and august would be super dry and dusty
Same thing for wave behind her; plenty of water vapor around but nothing in the way of sustain t-storms cruising along a rain soaked ITCZ: that should start to change over the next few weeks unless the dry stable air wins the battle overall in the Central Atlantic:








590. Siker
Joe Bastardi discusses 21L in his latest video, saying it's the one to watch for potential land impact. Something he pointed out that I hadn't noticed when looking at the Euro ensembles is that the control run actually brings this all the way into the Gulf as a wave before developing into a broad cyclone off the Texas Coast.
Quoting 550. BahaHurican:

Good morning all.



I see my gestimate of 20N 50W is at the edge of the cone of uncertainty ...

I notice NHC has dropped it completely ... for now, anyway. This may be like Earl's parent wave, which didn't do much to garner attention until it neared the Antilles ...




INDEED THIS MAY BE AN UNEXPECTED SURPRISE FOR THE ISLANDS SOMETIME BY THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. I HOPE AND PRAY IT IS NOT TOO STRONG OF A SYSTEM IF IT DOES INTENSIFY SUDDENLY ESPECIALLY WHILE NEARING THE ISLANDS...HOWEVER, IT SEEMS ALMOST CERTAIN THAT WE WILL BE HAVING SOME POTENTIALLY POWERFUL INCLEMENT WEATHER SOMEWHERE ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN BY NEXT WEEK. I TRUST THAT INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL BE MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM IRRESPECTIVE OF DESIGNATION/ CLASSIFICATIONS. (I THINK THE GRAPHIC BELOW BY MAweatherboy1 IS A GOOD INDICATION OF THE STRONG POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL TROUBLE DOWN THE ROAD...)
GOD BLESS!
Quoting 576. MAweatherboy1:


That's one to watch. The parent HWRF domain also shows it. And there's a decent ensemble signal as well, not only on the GEFS but also and especially the normally conservative Euro ensembles.


TA13 nailed it a few days ago; many of waves that form into storms that threaten the Caribbean and US are the ones that struggle, as depressions or weak storms, crossing the Atlantic hampered by dry air but that then get out of the SAL closer to the Caribbean and intensify...........Have to see if 21L makes it all the way across the Atlantic intact and in what shape....................You never know.



Quoting 574. beell:

Consistent over 3-4 runs in the GFS that the leading wave will be approaching the Lesser Antilles as a recognizable feature in about 5 days. Trailing wave on a different track. "Filonely" to the north.


08/18 06Z GFS 700 mb vor @ 120 hrs


08/18 06Z GFS 850-200 mb wind shear/low centers @ 120 hrs

AGAIN -INDEED THIS MAY BE AN UNEXPECTED SURPRISE FOR THE ISLANDS SOMETIME BY THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. I HOPE AND PRAY IT IS NOT TOO STRONG OF A SYSTEM IF IT DOES INTENSIFY SUDDENLY ESPECIALLY WHILE NEARING THE ISLANDS...HOWEVER, IT SEEMS ALMOST CERTAIN THAT WE WILL BE HAVING SOME POTENTIALLY POWERFUL INCLEMENT WEATHER SOMEWHERE ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN BY NEXT WEEK. I TRUST THAT INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL BE MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM IRRESPECTIVE OF DESIGNATION/ CLASSIFICATIONS. (I THINK THE MODELS HINTING AT THIS SCENARIO ARE A GOOD INDICATION OF THE STRONG POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL TROUBLE DOWN THE ROAD...)
GOD BLESS!
Quoting 589. weathermanwannabe:

Same thing for wave behind her; plenty of water vapor around but nothing in the way of sustain t-storms cruising along a rain soaked ITCZ: that should start to change over the next few weeks unless the dry stable air wins the battle overall in the Central Atlantic:









i have been thinking since may that the dry air would put a damper on the atlantic storms right through october... so far that seems to be the case
Quoting 594. windyhairday:

i have been thinking since may that the dry air would put a damper on the atlantic storms right through october... so far that seems to be the case


That has been a big issue for the past several seasons in the Central Atlantic; and then we have had no majors threaten the US or Carribean in the same time period of the last several years. Not rocket science at this point and definitely a correlation. Lately, if a CV wave cannot get to the Caribbean as a Cat 1 or 2 already, the Western Caribbean westerlies will keep a weak system weak.
Quoting 594. windyhairday:

i have been thinking since may that the dry air would put a damper on the atlantic storms right through october... so far that seems to be the case


Didn't we just have Hurricane Earl which crossed the Atlantic as a wave and now Tropical Storm Fiona only a few weeks later and it's still only the middle of August?
We are on track for an above normal season.
I'm confused?
Quoting 579. beell:

Interesting cast-off from Fiona @ 90 hrs. Anybody's guess as to whether this piece of vorticity is real or a spurious GFS artifact.


08/18 06Z GFS 700 mb vort @ 90 hrs
Artifact, more likely.
Quoting 581. beell:



Yes it does. Are you still going to watch for it?
:)
Since GFS starts getting pretty random around 10 days out, I'd sure keep looking ... lol ...
Shucks.... gotta go .... will sneak in later....
May not be great for CV long trackers, but beware the homegrown. We just saw a no name storm create the biggest housing crisis in Louisiana since Katrina.

Quoting 594. windyhairday:

i have been thinking since may that the dry air would put a damper on the atlantic storms right through october... so far that seems to be the case


Vietnam braced for more flooding
Tropical Depression Dianmu is strengthening as it barrels towards the country.
30 minutes ago
A tropical depression is heading towards Vietnam, threatening flooding and landslides.
The storm, named Dianmu, developed within a large weather system that has been plaguing southern China in recent days.
The rain has already triggered flooding in parts of southern China and, for some waterlogged areas, the downpours are set to become even more intense.
The storm is moving very slowly, at only about 7km an hour. This means that the region will see a prolonged onslaught of severe weather.
Dongfang, on the island of Hainan, has already reported 272 millimetres of rain over the past 24 hours and more rain is still falling.
...
Quoting 596. Sfloridacat5:



Didn't we just have Hurricane Earl which crossed the Atlantic as a wave and now Tropical Storm Fiona only a few weeks later and it's still only the middle of August?
We are on track for an above normal season.
I'm confused?
Talking about strong storms [above cat 2] ie. deeper systems with more wind.
Shear is pretty high at the moment right in front of 21L and again closer to the Caribbean; 21L is going to have a tough time during the crossing unless shear drops not to mention the dry air:



Quoting 600. BahaHurican:

Talking about strong storms [above cat 2] ie. deeper systems with more wind.


Yeah, so far kept in check, but Earl would have been a major if it weren't for the Yucatan. Earl's forward speed kept him from getting too strong before making landfall. A slower system could have become a major in the Western Caribbean.
But I will agree that the MDR (Atlantic) is not the most friendly environment.
Made it to 1005 mb, now it looks like Fiona beginning to dry out a little some more. Shear not a big factor, yet.

run after run, the CMC says this will happen,well 9-10 days away,we'll see what happens............
Quoting 593. NatureIsle:


AGAIN -INDEED THIS MAY BE AN UNEXPECTED SURPRISE FOR THE ISLANDS SOMETIME BY THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. I HOPE AND PRAY IT IS NOT TOO STRONG OF A SYSTEM IF IT DOES INTENSIFY SUDDENLY ESPECIALLY WHILE NEARING THE ISLANDS...HOWEVER, IT SEEMS ALMOST CERTAIN THAT WE WILL BE HAVING SOME POTENTIALLY POWERFUL INCLEMENT WEATHER SOMEWHERE ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN BY NEXT WEEK. I TRUST THAT INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL BE MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM IRRESPECTIVE OF DESIGNATION/ CLASSIFICATIONS. (I THINK THE MODELS HINTING AT THIS SCENARIO ARE A GOOD INDICATION OF THE STRONG POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL TROUBLE DOWN THE ROAD...)
GOD BLESS!


WHY ARE YOU YELLING?
Fiona on the last few frames is becoming a little stretched out, shear is having some what of an effect. It is going to be moving into some high shear soon, could be enough to really weaken her throughout the day depending if the circulation can hold together strong.

607. ariot
Quoting 586. nonblanche:

FYI: C-SPAN (radio & TV) is having their Washington Journal call-in with the Republican former congressman (replaced in the last election by Trey Gowdy) who is arguing for a valid republican response to AGW, not a denier. Some of the callers are... interesting. He's treating every caller with respect, even the ones with obvious tinfoil hats. Give it a listen, maybe even call in.


They will go all in on AGW at some point. I suspect a splinter of the more socially liberal, wealthy, North-east, old guard will try to come back from the wilderness in 8-10 years with reactionary AGW policy in the platform. What would be worse, in my view, is to see religious conservatives embrace GW (minus the A) as an end-times prophecy resulting in some sort of war with people in their book.

Either way, when an issue becomes obvious, it becomes political capital, even if your team previously denied that issue existed previously. It takes a while. But AGW will show up wrapped in a flag at some point.
593. NatureIsle
8:46 AM EDT on August 18, 2016

21L is not even close to the earmark for a potential threat to the Caribbean; patience and wait until NHC throws out the red crayon a few hundred miles from the Caribbean........................................
Quoting 492. Articuno:



98MB??? HOLY $%!^

lol


We got a hyper-cane on our hands lol
Cute - notice the little eye windstorm "Hildegund" (on the left) is developing on its way to the British Isles.



In LA related news; no surprise that those parts are clear on the map released for the week this morning due to all the rain and flooding: and the worst drought in recent US history continues in Southern Cali along with the  wildfires in that region.


Current U.S. Drought Monitor

Quoting 606. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Fiona on the last few frames is becoming a little stretched out, shear is having some what of an effect. It is going to be moving into some high shear soon, could be enough to really weaken her throughout the day depending if the circulation can hold together strong.




Certainly looks sheared to me. It's a pretty robist surface circulation, so I doubt it'll open, but it's about to get a slap in the face. Southwest quad is already getting that smashed look.

The CMC model still has Fiona making landfall in NC as a Cat 1 hurricane.
Quoting 607. ariot:



They will go all in on AGW at some point. I suspect a splinter of the more socially liberal, wealthy, North-east, old guard will try to come back from the wilderness in 8-10 years with reactionary AGW policy in the platform. What would be worse, in my view, is to see religious conservatives embrace GW (minus the A) as an end-times prophecy resulting in some sort of war with people in their book.

Either way, when an issue becomes obvious, it becomes political capital, even if your team previously denied that issue existed previously. It takes a while. But AGW will show up wrapped in a flag at some point.


I would think the religious right believes that earth was created for mankind to use, so if resources are in short supply and climate threatens the worlds coastal cities (and then some), maybe it is indeed the end times...

Quoting 605. NCHurricaneTracker69:


WHY ARE YOU YELLING?


Quoting 610. barbamz:

Cute - notice the little eye windstorm "Hildegund" (on the left) is developing on its way to the British Isles.






That's going to be a lovely, normal day in Britain
Quoting 613. NCHurricaneTracker69:


The CMC model still has Fiona making landfall in NC as a Cat 1 hurricane.


The CMC is like that kid in class who doesn't do a report and begins making up a bunch of stuff at the last second.
major hurricane landfall pts from 1851. notice none near central fl. to north fl.. what to me is interesting there has been alot of cat 1 & 2s making landfall nearby but not a major yet. thanks to csu one of the best weather groups around.
Quoting 607. ariot:



They will go all in on AGW at some point. I suspect a splinter of the more socially liberal, wealthy, North-east, old guard will try to come back from the wilderness in 8-10 years with reactionary AGW policy in the platform. What would be worse, in my view, is to see religious conservatives embrace GW (minus the A) as an end-times prophecy resulting in some sort of war with people in their book.

Either way, when an issue becomes obvious, it becomes political capital, even if your team previously denied that issue existed previously. It takes a while. But AGW will show up wrapped in a flag at some point.
Only thing saving you from that is that the end times is supposed to be with fire, not water.... and so far AGW has had some noticeable water related effects that have impacted the so-called "Bible belt" more than the fire aspect.

I think when Republican money holders are able to get a stake in the renewable game, in a way that makes it a viable moneymaker for them, we'll see a real change in opposition to AGW. I really don't believe the whole AGW argument has been scientific, or even political in the true sense, for some time. This is all about money, and who loses big-time if the world switches to renewable energy. If your entire investment is in fossil fuels, you are going to fight hard to protect that investment, even if only as long as it takes for you to get a firm hold on the "next new big thing" ....

My two cents ...

Quoting 608. weathermanwannabe:

593. NatureIsle
8:46 AM EDT on August 18, 2016

21L is not even close to the earmark for a potential threat to the Caribbean; patience and wait until NHC throws out the red crayon a few hundred miles from the Caribbean........................................
Like I said, check back in 7 - 10 days ....
Quoting 618. BahaHurican:

Only thing saving you from that is that the end times is supposed to be with fire, not water.... and so far AGW has had some noticeable water related effects that have impacted the so-called "Bible belt" more than the fire aspect.

I think when Republican money holders are able to get a stake in the renewable game, in a way that makes it a viable moneymaker for them, we'll see a real change in opposition to AGW. I really don't believe the whole AGW argument has been scientific, or even political in the true sense, for some time. This is all about money, and who loses big-time if the world switches to renewable energy. If your entire investment is in fossil fuels, you are going to fight hard to protect that investment, even if only as long as it takes for you to get a firm hold on the "next new big thing" ....

My two cents ...

Like I said, check back in 7 - 10 days ....


Bingo, we have a winner. That's all it really is. CREAM.
21L pouch most definitely poses a threat to land next week. With the high pressure in place, most of the long term models continue to move this system west. While it is way too early to determine intensity, the wave is very healthy and should soon be designated an invest. Watch it closely.

Quoting 465. 999Ai2016:


It's a global average (it can vary big time between places), and it's accelerating.

- The Siege of Miami
By Elizabeth Kolbert.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, sea levels could rise by more than three feet by the end of this century. The United States Army Corps of Engineers projects that they could rise by as much as five feet; the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts up to six and a half feet. According to Wanless, all these projections are probably low. In his office, Wanless keeps a jar of meltwater he collected from the Greenland ice sheet. He likes to point out that there is plenty more where that came from.
"Many geologists, we're looking at the possibility of a ten-to-thirty-foot range by the end of the century," he told me.

- Fiji - 64 villages to be relocated due to climate change - Aug. 1.
- Alaskan village voting on whether to relocate because of sea level rise - Aug. 17.

- Rising tide of migration accompanies sea level rises, as predicted
By Eric Holtaus.

LOL 30 feet by the end of the century he realizes that is 84 years away right? that is 5 inches a year. Right now it is rising at .1 inches/year, and that isn't going to change that rapidly. Probably at one point in that forecast he must have sea levels rising by more than a foot a year.
A foot or two a sea level rise wouldn't do much to most places. Places like New Orleans or Miam Beach might be in trouble, but 99% of the US would be fine, it that is generally true across the world.
Quoting 616. George1938:



The CMC is like that kid in class who doesn't do a report and begins making up a bunch of stuff at the last second.

Lol, true.
Quoting 620. Grothar:

21L pouch most definitely poses a threat to land next week. With the high pressure in place, most of the long term models continue to move this system west. While it is way too early to determine intensity, the wave is very healthy and should soon be designated an invest. Watch it closely.




I'll watch it as closely as you listened closely to those dramatic radio dramas in the 50's.
Quoting 623. ElConando:



I'll watch it as closely as you listened closely to those dramatic radio dramas in the 50's.


They had radio in the 1750s?
Quoting 612. GatorWX:



Certainly looks sheared to me. It's a pretty robist surface circulation, so I doubt it'll open, but it's about to get a slap in the face. Southwest quad is already getting that smashed look.


Little bit out of the southeast. Dry environment looks to be the main player, but this will do its damage yet. Maybe Fiona gets out of the this 24 hours at least a surface low/TD and moves north, where it could try to beat its 40 kt mark. NHC doesn't drop it on the 5-day cone at least to TD strength.
627. MahFL
Quoting 620. Grothar:

21L pouch most definitely poses a threat to land next week.


Not according to TWC, they just said out to sea...
Quoting 624. rmbjoe1954:



They had radio in the 1750s?


My first e-mail. :P

Quoting 627. MahFL:



Not according to TWC, they just said out to sea...


Just for that, I'm going to post my unofficial BlobCon 2.
Quoting 628. Grothar:



My first e-mail. :P



LOL!!
What about the wave behind 21L? Does it have any chance of developing?
In an average hurricane season, the 3rd hurricane doesn't format until September 9th. The 1st major not until September 3rd. We have plenty of time. On average the 7th named storm doesn't format until September 16th.
Good morning, folks.

Today is August 18th, 2016.

11 more days until August 29th, 2016.
634. MahFL
Convection firing again :



this is moving at 16mph? too me it looks like its about ready too stall

the storm is doing really good so far with the higher shear moving in soon


Quoting 632. Hurricanes101:

In an average hurricane season, the 3rd hurricane doesn't format until September 9th. The 1st major not until September 3rd. We have plenty of time. On average the 7th named storm doesn't format until September 16th.


On pace for above normal amount of storms for sure, the only question is how close is ACE going to be to average or will it go above? In close development an short lived storms will bring ACE numbers down for a season unless a couple long track high intensity Cape Verde storms make up for it.
Its like storms just can't seem to get going this year and funny how we finally have a storm and shear raises through the roof.Back in July when no storms were present shear wasn't that bad and even a little below normal in several spots."Wait until August they said" and we are still seeing struggling storms/waves.
Quoting 620. Grothar:
21L pouch most definitely poses a threat to land next week. With the high pressure in place, most of the long term models continue to move this system west. While it is way too early to determine intensity, the wave is very healthy and should soon be designated an invest. Watch it closely.



Currently it looks better than Fiona!
Quoting 638. washingtonian115:

Its like storms just can't seem to get going this year and funny how we finally have a storm and shear raises through the roof.Back in July when no storms were present shear wasn't that bad and even a little below normal in several spots."Wait until August they said" and we are still seeing struggling storms/waves.


Then we wait until September. I believe this will still be an above average year as the NHC stated.
Quoting 639. 69Viking:



Currently it looks better than Fiona!


It's what happens to that wave after it gets into the Caribbean.
Quoting 633. 62901IL:

Good morning, folks.

Today is August 18th, 2016.

11 more days until August 29th, 2016.


Aug 29th. The date Hurricane Katrina made landfall in southeast Louisiana and Mississippi.

Today - AUG 17th-18, 1969. Camille made landfall as a CAT5 hurricane in the same location as Katrina.

Prayers for the 2016 flood victims in Louisiana. The Gulf Coast has been hit, dug out from all of these disasters, and will be stronger than ever!
Quoting 642. Stormwatch247:



Aug 29th. The date Hurricane Katrina made landfall in southeast Louisiana and Mississippi.

Today - AUG 17th-18, 1969. Camille made landfall as a CAT5 hurricane in the same location as Katrina.

Prayers for the 2016 flood victims in Louisiana. The Gulf Coast has been hit, dug out from all of these disasters, and will be stronger than ever!


Don't forget that Alicia hit Houston 33 years ago today. The pseudo-tropical storm that caused the flooding in Louisiana was a very close analogy to Alicia and would likely have been Alicia part II had it just formed a little more to the south.
06z GFS calling for quite the stall of Fiona.

call me a "party pooper" but usually they play follow the leader. bright colored group of clouds will follow Fiona. also i believe the models are picking up development of the trough east of bahamas. it will menace the ne us as a storm 220 hrs
Quoting 576. MAweatherboy1:


That's one to watch. The parent HWRF domain also shows it. And there's a decent ensemble signal as well, not only on the GEFS but also and especially the normally conservative Euro ensembles.




I really hope something will happen because the weather is ridiculous here. It's august not june :\
Quoting 639. 69Viking:



Currently it looks better than Fiona!
Joe Bastarti said that's the one to watch talking about it for 3 days now.
Quoting 615. win1gamegiantsplease:


That's going to be a lovely, normal day in Britain

Actually, in southern England they are currently suffering from a little drought and are desparately hoping for some decent rain (f.e. WU-member sandiquiz).


Hwrf I trust you!
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
21:00 PM JST August 18 2016
========================
WARNING
Sea East Of Japan
At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (996 hPa) located at 30.9N 148.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 16 knots.

Near Mariana Islands
At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (996 hPa) located at 16.2N 143.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving east northeast at 10 knots.

SUMMARY
At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1000 hPa) located at 23.0N 153.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving north at 10 knots.

REMARKS: TC WARNINGS
Gulf of Tonkin
At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Dianmu (985 hPa) located at 20.3N 109.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
240 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 20.6N 105.9E - 40 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) Overland Vietnam
48 HRS: 21.2N 100.8E - Tropical Depression Overland Laos
seems like Fiona is losing some convection due to dry air inhibition.
Remember what happened to Ike when it stalled in the Central Atlantic in 2008. It turned WSW and went further south and west than any hurricane in recorded history before coming ashore at Bolivar in SE Texas.
Quoting 649. CaribBoy:



Hwrf I trust you!


Baton Rouge Metro Airport has recorded. 25.92 inches of rainfall for the month of August.

The yearly total so far has exceeded 70 inches.
Quoting 644. fmbill:

06z GFS calling for quite the stall of Fiona.




It's slowed down to 8mph.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016
1100 AM AST THU AUG 18 2016

...FIONA MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 40.5W
ABOUT 1095 MI...1760 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
India Meteorological Department
DEEP DEPRESSION
17:30 PM IST August 18 2016
==============================

At 12:00 PM UTC The Deep Depression over extreme southwest Bihar & adjoining west Jharkhand, southeast Uttar Pradesh and north Chhattisgarh moved nearly westwards during last 3 hours and lay centered over extreme southeast Uttar Pradesh & adjoining Jharkhand, Bihar, northeast Madhya Pradesh and north Chhattisgarh, near 24.1N 83.4E, about 80 km west of Daltonganj (Jharkhand) and about 150 km east­ southeast of Sidhi (Madhya Pradesh).

The system is likely to move nearly westwards and gradually weaken into a depression during next 24 hours.
Quoting 645. islander101010:

call me a "party pooper" but usually they play follow the leader. bright colored group of clouds will follow Fiona. also i believe the models are picking up development of the trough east of bahamas. it will menace the ne us as a storm 220 hrs
the models are sending the storm into North Carolina, which by my count is nowhere near the Northeast.
Quoting 638. washingtonian115:

Its like storms just can't seem to get going this year and funny how we finally have a storm and shear raises through the roof.Back in July when no storms were present shear wasn't that bad and even a little below normal in several spots."Wait until August they said" and we are still seeing struggling storms/waves.

August isn't over.
Hmmmm

Link

Meteosat shots starting to come in on 21L: I will admit that it has really improved in appearance over the past 4 hours and starting  to fire sustained convection already near the wave axis:



'The Cajun way': Neighbors helping neighbors as Louisiana flood hits Acadiana


Travis Abshire and Kenneth Tucker hadn't seen an outsider since Friday when the floodwaters began to rise. It was late Wednesday afternoon when they saw the boat.

The men had been stranded for days with their families in Mermentau Cove, deep in Acadia Parish farm country, and the boat carrying food and water was a welcome sight. The men eagerly waded into the waters with beaming gratitude.

Mike Richard and Heath Clark, volunteer firefighters with the Acadia Parish Volunteer Fire Department were on a mission of mercy. "We're just neighbors helping neighbors," said Clark. "That's the Cajun Way."


Cajuns respond to Louisiana flood of 2016 with self reliance
The firefighters are trained in emergency response. But the flood caught even Richard by surprise. "I didn't think the water ever got that high," he said. "A lot of people didn't think it was going to get that high."

Like many other communities across south Louisiana, the rivers, streams and bayous were woefully insufficient to handle the deluge of water dumped in this week's torrential rainstorms.

South of Jennings, the Mermentau River enters the Gulf of Mexico via Lake Arthur. Once the watershed is saturated, "everything just stops and backs up in Acadia Parish," said Clark. "It has nowhere to go. So that's what we're dealing with now."

Richard and Clark say their philosophy runs deep in their culture. When disaster strikes, there's just no sense in waiting for outside help. "We can't afford to wait on nobody," said Clark. "It takes two or three days for the National Guard to get down here. We don't have time for that. We just do it ourselves."

Residents expected the flooding, but many were surprised at how quickly the water rose. "I woke up Saturday morning," Ashire said, "and the water was already across the road."

'Cajun Navy' sets sail to rescue flood victims
'Cajun Navy' sets sail to rescue flood victims
Armada of volunteers seeks to help neighbors, friends, strangers

A few miles away, the volunteer boatmen checked in on an isolated cluster of homes. There they found an old friend, Phyllis Cart, along with her husband Ellis, desperately fighting to save her family home.

With the help of several neighbors, they had built a makeshift levee around the brick ranch using farm-grade aqua dams fashioned from plastic sheeting.

So far, the plan was working. Three pumps managed to keep the seepage to a manageable depth inside the house. Ellis figured they could weather another seven inches of floodwater before being overtaken.

He carefully calculated the crest estimates on his cell phone. It was going to be close. Very close.

Phyllis quietly lamented the last time the water approached these depths. In 1983, her father fought and lost a valiant battle with the floods when he slept through the alarm and failed to keep the pumps fueled. It was a crushing defeat for the proud Marine veteran, Phyllis said.

Since her father passed away, the battle now falls on her shoulders.

"Now we have to save the house for mom," she said.

Louisiana's 2016 flood resulted from '1,000-year' rain
Louisiana's 2016 flood resulted from '1,000-year' rain
'The moisture content of the atmosphere was at record levels,' says Frank Revitte of National Weather Service

The boat stopped at house after house dispensing well wishes, jokes, supplies and offers to ferry folks to dry land. Several children looked longingly at the chance to escape creeping cabin fever, but their parents said no. A grandfather stared at the endless water from his front porch rocker with stoic resolve. A shotgun and a rifle stood within easy reach for any alligators and snakes foolish enough to threaten.

When the boat was empty, Richard turned toward home, returning the same route as they arrived. From a distance they could see Phyllis Cart wading out to block their way.

"You're stopping by for coffee?" she joked as she reached out to stop the boat. "I want to make sure you know what we're all about here," she said. "It's the camaraderie" that gets us through this. "Volunteers and people like you ... we appreciate everything. Thank you."

"Thank you," Richard returned with a nod of his head and a smile. "Just let us know if you need anything,"

Phyllis turned back toward her battle, then paused.

"Please pray for us," Phyllis said. "It's what we need most."


Quoting 621. Methurricanes:


LOL 30 feet by the end of the century he realizes that is 84 years away right? that is 5 inches a year. Right now it is rising at .1 inches/year, and that isn't going to change that rapidly. Probably at one point in that forecast he must have sea levels rising by more than a foot a year.
A foot or two a sea level rise wouldn't do much to most places. Places like New Orleans or Miam Beach might be in trouble, but 99% of the US would be fine, it that is generally true across the world.


A slow moving disaster is still a disaster.

I'd like to see where you get your "99% of the US will be fine with a 30 ft sea level rise." Things aren't going to look so rosy when the entire population of southern Florida is forced to relocate somewhere else. "Oh, it'll be fine!" ... Until they're trying to camp out in your backyard because they have nowhere else to go.
664. JRRP
Quoting 660. CaribBoy:

Hmmmm

Link



MLC 12n 28w
Quoting 663. gunhilda:



A slow moving disaster is still a disaster.

I'd like to see where you get your "99% of the US will be fine with a 30 ft sea level rise." Things aren't going to look so rosy when the entire population of southern Florida is forced to relocate somewhere else. "Oh, it'll be fine!" ... Until they're trying to camp out in your backyard because they have nowhere else to go.

It's 1-2 foot, not 30 foot.
If one were to lose Nola,

Your economy loses the Only deep river port in America.


That's why nola has Always been a geo political prize.


Presidents have known that,..as well as history.


That's why they spent 14 billion in cash to upgrade the protection here.

New Orleans: A Geopolitical Prize
Wednesday, September 7th, 2005


[...]
During the Cold War, a macabre topic of discussion among bored graduate students who studied such things was this: If the Soviets could destroy one city with a large nuclear device, which would it be? The usual answers were Washington or New York. For me, the answer was simple: New Orleans. If the Mississippi River was shut to traffic, then the foundations of the economy would be shattered. The industrial minerals needed in the factories wouldn’t come in, and the agricultural wealth wouldn’t flow out. Alternative routes really weren’t available. The Germans knew it too: A U-boat campaign occurred near the mouth of the Mississippi during World War II. Both the Germans and Stratfor have stood with Andy Jackson: New Orleans was the prize.

(Hat tip to GeekPress.)

Quoting 651. birdsrock2016:

seems like Fiona is losing some convection due to dry air inhibition.


I believe "entrainment" is the word you meant, not inhibition.
Could federal funding save Manasota Key's beach erosion?
Link

CHARLOTTE COUNTY -
Charlotte County is now looking to the federal government for help on addressing beach erosion on Manasota Key.

On Tuesday, Congressman Tom Rooney will hold a public meeting along with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. They will discuss what federal solutions are available to prevent further damage to renourish the beaches.

It turns out the Corps did a study back in 1971 on the issue, which means federal funding may still be an option to restore beach front. The county did not pursue the project at the time due to funding.

"This revelation of this study is really monumental and hopefully the impetus of what gets us a long-term federal solution," said legislative manager Emily Lewis.

Tropical Storm Colin accelerated a lot of erosion and forced several buildings and homes to either be condemned or make emergency repairs.

The public is invited to attend Tuesday's meeting at 3:30 p.m. It'll be held at the Tringali Recreation Center in Englewood at 3460 N Access Road.
The cognitive dissonance here is staggering at times.

.
Alaskan Village Holds Vote to Relocate After Climate Change Erodes Land
By CATHERINE THORBECKE
Aug 17, 2016, 4:25 PM ET
PHOTO: A view of the beach along a barrier island in the Chukchi sea, is seen, July 8, 2015, in Shishmaref, Alaska. Play



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Alaskan Village Holds Vote to Relocate After Climate Change Erodes Land
By CATHERINE THORBECKE
Aug 17, 2016, 4:25 PM ET
PHOTO: A view of the beach along a barrier island in the Chukchi sea, is seen, July 8, 2015, in Shishmaref, Alaska. PlayAndrew Burton/Getty Images


The tiny village of Shishmaref, Alaska, will find out today if everyone in the village will be moving to the mainland.

The village, located on Sarichef Island, off the Western coast of Alaska, is home to a small Inupiat Eskimo community. Locals held a special election Tuesday over whether to relocate or stay put as rising sea levels have significantly eroded the land.

"The island, wow, it's smaller," Jane Stevenson, who was born and raised in the village, told ABC News. "We used to have a beach and now we don't have a beach, because we lost a lot of land. Growing up we used to play at the beach. I moved out of Shishmaref in 1998 and I lived out of here for 10 years, then moved back in 2010, and was amazed at how much beach and land we lost in that time."

Stevenson, who works as the tribal coordinator for the Native Village of Shishmaref, said she was against the relocation plan even though climate change has dramatically impacted her homeland.

"I really like the location where we're at, especially for our subsistence," she said, adding that her family enjoys hunting and fishing in the ocean. She said she was worried that moving to the mainland would be very expensive because of the cost of gas to go hunting.


DIVIDED AMERICA: Global Warming Polarizes More Than Abortion
The State of Alaska Immediate Action Workgroup included Shishmaref in the six top-priority communities that were imminently threatened by the impacts of climate change.

"The entire community is susceptible to erosion, and the underlying permafrost is melting. Erosion has undermined buildings and infrastructure, causing several structures to collapse and fall into the sea," the Alaska state Department of Commerce, Community and Economic Development wrote on its website about Shishmaref.

The state agency added that the community has moved houses and other structures further from the shoreline, but increasingly has "less and less space to do so."

The current population of the village is 574, Sally Russell Cox, who works for Alaska’s Division of Community and Regional Affairs, told ABC News.

Cox said the village largely maintains a traditional subsistence lifestyle and that employment in the village is mostly government-based, with residents working for the city, the tribe or the Bering Straight School District.

Nearly a third of the population (29.2 percent) lives below the poverty line, according to Cox.

PHOTO: The village of Shishmaref, Alaska, which sits upon the Chukchi sea, is seen, July 9, 2015.

Quoting 659. RitaEvac:

Louisiana paper to Obama: Cut vacation short


Some media and politicians seem to love critique presidents when they're on vacation. I can pull up articles at least as far back as Reagan on the issue. It's low hanging fruit in my opinion. Something really bad is likely to happen in a country as large and as populous as ours during a presidential vacation.
Quoting 661. weathermanwannabe:

Meteosat shots starting to come in on 21L: I will admit that it has really improved in appearance over the past 4 hours and starting  to fire sustained convection already near the wave axis:





NHC may tag this on their TWO soon at 10/20 or so...
Quoting 640. rmbjoe1954:



Then we wait until September. I believe this will still be an above average year as the NHC stated.


Many are waiting for a CAT5 to come screaming across the Atlantic Ocean headed straight at the U.S. mainland.
Anything less than that and the season is a bust.
Quoting 673. Sfloridacat5:



Many are waiting for a CAT5 to come screaming across the Atlantic Ocean headed straight at the U.S. mainland.
Anything less than that and the season is a bust.


No thanks.
Quoting 671. ElConando:



Some media and politicians seem to love critique presidents when they're on vacation. I can pull up articles at least as far back as Reagan on the issue. It's low hanging fruit in my opinion. Something really bad is likely to happen in a country as large and as populous as ours during a presidential vacation.


I'm not about to get into a political battle with you on a weather blog, but as the article stated, Mr Obama had no problem leaving his vacation for a dinner to support the Democratic nominee. How about a little support here in La and take the BS politics out of it....really sad.
Quoting 671. ElConando:



Some media and politicians seem to love critique presidents when they're on vacation. I can pull up articles at least as far back as Reagan on the issue. It's low hanging fruit in my opinion. Something really bad is likely to happen in a country as large and as populous as ours during a presidential vacation.lol one paper. he is covered by rest of media not even close nothing said.
678. Siker
Depression in the Eastern Caribbean on the GFS:

Patrap 662 That was Mississippi after Katrina. We became a true community for a time (till power was restored). Word of mouth for news, ate at people's houses who normally you might never talk to, cleared out swamped houses of friends and former enemies, instead of brownies you bring can of gas for dinner ( or bag of ice). Went to bed at dusk, up at dawn. Losing weight was nice side effect. Saw the Milky Way for first time in my life. Easy to see what a lot of us miss with advent of technology. I wouldn't wish the heartache on anyone however, and know the gulf coast of Mississippi have not forgotten y'all.
Ran this through IMGUR so, hopefully no one has a problem seeing it.

All hurricanes passing within 67 miles of Lake Worth , Florida in the last 100 years (1916-2015), listed by month.


Pretty obvious when the majors like to get their game on.
It's a relatively short window, 4-6 weeks.
By the end of August the season's winds start showing their hands.
Check or bet. It's the luck of the draw.

Quoting 672. HurricaneFan:


NHC may tag this on their TWO soon at 10/20 or so...

I would think so as they referenced a wave coming off of Africa on Saturday this morning but the yellow cone is overlayed over 21L....Hopefully they will make reference to the improvement in sat presentation and separate 21L out on it's own at this point:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fiona located over the central tropical Atlantic.

1. A tropical wave is forecast to move off of the coast of Africa on
Saturday
. Development, if any, of this system is expected to be
slow to occur as the wave moves generally westward through a
marginally favorable environment.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Looks like mid-next week caribboy might ave some fun
Quoting 659. RitaEvac:

Louisiana paper to Obama: Cut vacation short
if the man came down there and handed out gold bars to everyone they would still criticize him and complain.
Quoting 632. Hurricanes101:

In an average hurricane season, the 3rd hurricane doesn't format until September 9th. The 1st major not until September 3rd. We have plenty of time. On average the 7th named storm doesn't format until September 16th.
Averages mean nothing in light of the current state of gloabl climate instability. imho
The Gulf Coast has always been my second home for 56 years.

47 years ago this morning Camille had left the coast in calamity.


The home my grandfather built in Bay St. Louis survived that,but k pushed 6 ft of water thru it,5 miles inland


Indeed,the gulf coast and us share a common thing, we're both great American destinations.

686. JRRP
GFS 12z uff
Quoting 659. RitaEvac:

Louisiana paper to Obama: Cut vacation short
Why am I not surprised CNN picked this one up? If nothing else, it let's them point the finger at somebody besides the national media for being late to the party.

OTOH, I'm also not surprised the LA paper had this story in the first place. I personally felt the president did get a national response team on the ground pretty quickly, but if he can make it to Alabama, and Joplin, why can't he make it to LA too?
12z GFS showing a dangerous situation for the Caribbean


Tropical storm, only 190 hours out not that far.
Quoting 685. Patrap:

The. Gulf Coast has always been my second home for 56 years s.

47 years ago this morning Camille had left the coast in calamity.


The home my grandfather built in Bay St. Louis survived that,but k pushed 6 ft of water thru it,5 milesx inland


Indeed,the gulf coast and us share a common thing, we're both American destinations.


Sorry , my phone gives me fits. God bless y'all.
Quoting 680. mikatnight:

Ran this through IMGUR so, hopefully no one has a problem seeing it.

All hurricanes passing within 67 miles of Lake Worth , Florida in the last 100 years (1916-2015), listed by month.


Pretty obvious when the majors like to get their game on.
It's a relatively short window, 4-6 weeks.
By the end of August the season's winds start showing their hands.
Check or bet. It's the luck of the draw.


Of note: Hurricane King 1950, has since been updated to a cat.-4
Quoting 685. Patrap:

The. Gulf Coast has always been my second home for 56 years s.

47 years ago this morning Camille had left the coast in calamity.


The home my grandfather built in Bay St. Louis survived that,but k pushed 6 ft of water thru it,5 milesx inland


Indeed,the gulf coast and us share a common thing, we're both American destinations.




NOAA's extensive Re-Analysis report on Camille released last April. They finally downgraded the sustained winds to a more realistic figure. Also, Camille wasn't as small as most people tend to believe. She was much larger than Andrew, for instance.
Worth taking another look; nice SAL free window for 21L out ahead for the next several days in the wake of Fiona clearing out the way; maybe she is the sacrificial lamb;



Quoting 673. Sfloridacat5:



Many are waiting for a CAT5 to come screaming across the Atlantic Ocean headed straight at the U.S. mainland.
Anything less than that and the season is a bust.
How is pointing out the current conditions and the fact that the storms for the most part of this year have been struggling is suggesting that this season is a bust? If you ask me people such as yourself and others who mock people for pointing out the not so ideal conditions are the ones secretly waiting for a major.
Quoting 694. HurriHistory:




Thank you very much for the correction!
I will absolutely look into that.
Accuracy is paramount.



This pattern would set the probability if a US landfall mighty high with a high pressure system over the NE.
GFS now really developing Pouch 21L (Second Wave).


This has North Carolina written all over it.
The GFS has joined the CMC, HWRF, and UKMET in developing the wave southwest of Cape Verde. This is the wave the Euro was showing the other day but dropped.
Quoting 667. Patrap:

If one were to lose Nola,

Your economy loses the Only deep river port in America.


That's why nola has Always been a geo political prize.


Presidents have known that,..as well as history.


That's why they spent 14 billion in cash to upgrade the protection here.

New Orleans: A Geopolitical Prize
Wednesday, September 7th, 2005


[...]
During the Cold War, a macabre topic of discussion among bored graduate students who studied such things was this: If the Soviets could destroy one city with a large nuclear device, which would it be? The usual answers were Washington or New York. For me, the answer was simple: New Orleans. If the Mississippi River was shut to traffic, then the foundations of the economy would be shattered. The industrial minerals needed in the factories wouldn%u2019t come in, and the agricultural wealth wouldn%u2019t flow out. Alternative routes really weren%u2019t available. The Germans knew it too: A U-boat campaign occurred near the mouth of the Mississippi during World War II. Both the Germans and Stratfor have stood with Andy Jackson: New Orleans was the prize.

(Hat tip to GeekPress.)


Nowadays though rail and road are much more prevalent, they would simply divert traffic to Mobile or Houston.
Also with the completion of the St Lawrence Sea way, the Great Lakes are all accessible by ocean going vessels.
12Z CMC now puts the storm in around the NYC metro area and new England.......
Quoting 709. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The GFS has joined the CMC, HWRF, and UKMET in developing the wave southwest of Cape Verde. This is the wave the Euro was showing the other day but dropped.


With a classic US landfall pattern to boot.
12Z UKMET





NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 12.9N 49.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.08.2016 108 12.9N 51.0W 1010 26
1200UTC 23.08.2016 120 12.9N 54.0W 1008 29
0000UTC 24.08.2016 132 13.5N 56.7W 1005 33
1200UTC 24.08.2016 144 14.2N 59.4W 1001 42

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
717. ariot
During this period of time, in August, 1955, two storms ran through the Mid Atlantic, and flooded pretty-much everything.

It only takes one, yes.

But, check out Connie and Dianne from '55 and imagine a similar situation faces those today who have been building up and building out during this relatively slow period.
Quoting 712. LargoFl:

12Z CMC now puts the storm in around the NYC metro area and new England.......
at 990 MB that is more of a drought buster than a disaster.
Although, interestingly enough, WCVB (ABC) Boston is having a special tonight on the 25th anniversary of Bob, a storm that along the east coast of the state was overshadowed by the No-Name Storm in 1991. It would be interesting to see how accurate their predictions are if such a similar storm hits New England a week after their special.
Quoting 706. Climate175:

GFS now really developing Pouch 21L (Second Wave).


The wave already looks good now, this could be tagged an invest soon possibly with in the next 24-48 hours. Could be a threat to not only the islands but the U.S.
Quoting 703. Patrap:

Loons,loons everywhere.

👗
you are giving loons a bad name methinks...
Wave coming into view.

Quoting 725. Grothar:




So that's the 'third' wave that is supposed to present a threat to the Caribbean and other parts thereafter.
Hello Everyone,

I posted here on the last blog juuuuuust before this blog entry was made. I hadn't posted here in years. I mentioned that we here in South Central Louisiana got 22+ inches of rain last week. We were lucky that we did not receive even more rain as was forecast. This rain event, while not possessing the characteristics of a named storm, is one I would still qualify as the "It takes JUST ONE STORM" to make the season a bad one.

Thankfully we have increased our ability to predict where a storm will go - often several days in advance. But still I would concur with so many who post here in that one should not depend so completely on all the models.

Take, for instance, Hurricane Betsy in 1965. This storm gave forecasters fits. I think that even today it would have given forecasters fits.

Houdude you mentioned:

652. Houdude
3:11 PM GMT on August 18, 2016

Remember what happened to Ike when it stalled in the Central Atlantic in 2008. It turned WSW and went further south and west than any hurricane in recorded history before coming ashore at Bolivar in SE Texas.

I'm not sure what you mean by this. I think that Hurricane Betsy went much further south and west than did Ike. Ivan (I think), while not a hurricane the whole time, made a continent-sized loop on itself hitting the northern gulf coast - twice. But I do get your point. Mother Nature has a way of thumbing her nose at even the most accurate prediction tools. So we should always be prepared and Fiona (and any other systems after) should be watched. Lest Mother Nature sneak one in on us.
730. JRRP
Quoting 700. TropicalAnalystwx13:



OH oh
Quoting 710. cat6band:



You're probably right, and you also have no idea either. Your question shouldn't be at me but at your POTUS.


The correct term is "our" POTUS...unless you are un-American, eh?
wave looking good

Please no please no
Nice to see 99L up IMO it should have been up from yesterday

And soon to be 90L this weekend

99L will be a much bigger threat than Fiona
This is forecast to go NW then WSW and strengthen into a typhoon



Quoting 707. chrisdscane:



This has North Carolina written all over it.
More like Florida and the Gulf.