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Historic Flood Event in Louisiana From 20-30 Inches of Rain

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 5:31 PM GMT on August 14, 2016

A historic flooding event continues over southern Louisiana, where widespread rainfall amounts in excess of twenty inches since Friday have brought all ten river gauges on the Amite, Tickfaw, and Comite Rivers to record flood crests, flooded thousands of homes, and caused over 1,000 water rescues. The most extreme floods have occurred on the Amite River, which flows along the east side of the Baton Rouge metropolitan area. Flood waters stranded hundreds of cars on Interstate 12 just east of Baton Rouge for more than 24 hours, Saturday through Sunday. About 25 miles east-southeast of Baton Rouge, the flood crest on the Amite River appears likely to overtop the levee system built at Port Vincent after the destructive floods of April 1983 (at the tail end of the 1982-83 “super” El Niño). The flood control system was designed to handle a recurrence of the 14.6-foot crest observed in that record event. However, the Amite at Port Vincent had already reached 14.91 feet as of 9:15 am CDT Sunday, and it is projected to hit a crest of 16.5 feet early Monday, remaining above the previous record until Tuesday. Major flooding can be expected to the south of Port Vincent in southern parts of Ascension Parish, where voluntary evacuations are already in effect. “If you can get out, get out now,” said parish president Kenny Matassa on Sunday morning.


Figure 1. Major flooding in Prarieville, Louisiana on Friday, August 12, 2016. (@presleygroupmk/twitter.com) 


Figure 2. The Amite River at Denham Springs, just east of Baton Rouge, was at 46.2 feet on Sunday morning, August 14, 2016, nearly five feet above its previous record crest of 41.5 feet on March 8, 1983. Records there date back to at least 1921, making this an impressive feat. Today's crest is the only one of the river’s top 80 historic crests to occur during August, since the worst floods in the region are more commonly associated with winter and spring rainfall than with landfalling tropical cyclones. The Amite crested at 58.56 feet in Magnolia, Louisiana, topping the old record at that location by more than six feet set on April 23, 1977. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.


Figure 3. Aerial view of flooding in Hammond, Louisiana on August 13, 2016. AP Photo/Max Becherer.

Some of the 24-hour rains that fell on Friday in Louisiana (ending at 11AM CDT/16UTC) had a recurrence interval at over 500 years, according to Metstat. Topping the list of phenomenal rainfall amounts catalogued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center for the period 6:00 am CDT Tuesday, August 9, 2016, through 9:00 am CDT Sunday was 31.39” near Watson, Louisiana. Other impressive amounts:

27.47”  Brownfields, LA
22.84”  Gloster, MS
14.43”  Panama City Beach, FL
8.97”  Fairhope, AL
8.11”  Williamsville, MO
7.90”  Cobden, IL


Figure 4. In a dramatic rescue on Saturday near Baton Rouge, a woman and her dog were pulled to safety just as their car went under water. See the powerful video here. Image credit: WAFB.

A tropical depression-like storm with tropical depression-like impacts
The storm system responsible for the record rains formed a distinct surface low just inland along the Alabama coast on August 11, with a central pressure of 1013 mb. By August 13, the low had drifted over northwest Louisiana, and intensified to a central pressure of 1007 mb. Like a tropical depression, the low had a warm core, and the counter-clockwise flow of air around the storm brought huge amounts of tropical moisture from the near record-warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and northwest Atlantic northwards over land. The amount of moisture in the atmosphere over the Gulf Coast region over the past week has been nothing short of phenomenal. Over multiple days, soundings of the atmosphere collected by weather balloon from locations such as New Orleans have measured record or near-record amounts of precipitable water (the amount of moisture in the atmosphere over a given point), often in the 2.5” to 2.75” range; sounding data extends back to 1948 in most cases. Sunday morning’s precipitable water of 2.61” in Lake Charles, LA, was among the top-ten values on record for that station.


Figure 5. Three-day precipitation totals ending at 10 EDT Sunday, August 14, 2016 showed several areas of 20+ inches had fallen over portions of Louisiana. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.


Figure 6. Projected rainfall from 12Z (8:00 am EDT) Sunday, August 14, 2016, through 12Z Wednesday. Image credit: NOAA/NWS/WPC.

The northern flank of this historic flood event
Separate from the heavy rain along the central Gulf Coast, a band of sometimes-torrential rain has pulsated over the last several days along a pre-existing frontal zone along and north of the Ohio River, stretching roughly from Arkansas to Ohio. This pattern bears some of the fingerprints of a PRE—a “predecessor rain event.” As we noted in a post last October, PREs tend to develop along preexisting frontal boundaries a few hundred miles north of landfalling tropical cyclones, as prevailing winds funnel huge amounts of moisture northward from the cyclone and concentrate it along the frontal zone. One challenge with such events is nailing down the location of the frontal zone, which can oscillate north or south as a multi-day PRE unfolds. Late Sunday into Monday, the Gulf Coast low itself will begin migrating northward along the frontal zone, further raising the possibility of flooding rains. Flash flood watches extended on Sunday morning along a belt from northern Arkansas to extreme northwest Pennsylvania.

On Friday, torrential rains put a damper on the Illinois State Fair at the state capital, Springfield, where an all-time calendar-day rainfall record was set with 5.59” (beating 5.44” from September 8, 1926). Of that total, 3.44” fell in just one hour. Although some events had to be cancelled or rescheduled, no injuries to people or livestock were reported at the fair. Parts of the southwestern Chicago suburbs received 4-5” of rain on Friday.


Figure 7. MODIS image of a strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa south of Cabo Verde as seen on Sunday morning, August 14, 2014. A large region of African dust is visible from the coast of Africa extending over Cabo Verde. Image credit: NASA.

African tropical wave may develop late this week
NHC was not highlighting any Atlantic tropical weather threat areas in their 5-day Tropical Weather Outlook on Sunday morning. However, two of our reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis--the European and GFS models--showed that a strong tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on Saturday night does have the potential to develop into a tropical depression late this week as it moves west to west-northwest at 15 mph into the central Atlantic. In their 00Z Sunday runs, about 30 - 50% of the members of the European and GFS model ensemble forecasts predicted development of this system into a tropical depression late this week.

Working against development of this wave will be the fact that the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, is currently located in the Western Pacific. When the MJO is located there, we can expect to see increased typhoon activity in the Northwest Pacific, but compensating sinking air and surface high pressure over the tropical Atlantic, with reduced chances of tropical cyclone development there. Dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) will also likely interfere with Atlantic development this week, though the SAL is currently less prominent over the tropical Atlantic than it was early in August.



Video 1. The Amite River Basin between Watson and Central, as videotaped by the U.S. Coast Guard on Saturday. Image credit: Louisiana GOHSEP, via NWS New Orleans.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

98L wants to go on vacation to the northern bahamas heading west by help of mr High then 99L wants to visit the islands and caribboy
GFS finally coming aboard?
98L please don't hurt me lol
Quoting 503. washingtonian115:

GFS finally coming aboard?



Yep 98L wanting a vacation
A day ago the models didn't have anything until next month.

How things change so fast!
Quoting 506. Gearsts:

A day ago the models didn't have anything until next month.

How things change so fast!


Welcome to our world lol
i you lived on the E coast from S FL too new york i would keep a eye on 98L this week
Sorry Cariboy.lol
98L could all so do a hurricane IKE track and head too N TX and LA area
Quoting 510. thetwilightzone:

98L could all so do a hurricane IKE track and head too N TX and LA area


Nope IMO
Quoting 508. thetwilightzone:

i you lived on the E coast from S FL too new york i would keep a eye on 98L this week


Why did you exclude the gulf states? You are leaving yourself open to being wrong.
Quoting 509. washingtonian115:

Sorry Cariboy.lol

Nope, not this run, but looks like it might want to visit you.
Quoting 512. Dakster:



Why did you exclude the gulf states? You are leaving yourself open to being wrong.


did you not see post 510?
Ok 99L heads OTS so does 98L but ignore the run ITS TOO EARLY TO KNOW ANYTHING ABOUT 99L
The end of the run.
Quoting 456. Climate175:

Link This shows the center very good.


Looks like two centers competing based on this
for the one that do not think 98L can do a track like hurricane IKE from the same spot it is on the GFS is in where here the track hurricane IKE took


Quoting 516. washingtonian115:

The end of the run.

Too far out, but with that strong high up there, that would favor U.S. hit.
Quoting 518. thetwilightzone:

for the one that do not think 98L can do a track like hurricane IKE from the same spot it is on the GFS is in where here the track hurricane IKE took




Unlikely imo
Quoting 515. James1981cane:

Ok 99L heads OTS so does 98L but ignore the run ITS TOO EARLY TO KNOW ANYTHING ABOUT 99L


why are you saying 99L when we dont have it?
Alright, ensembles it's your turn.

Quoting 520. Climate175:

Too far out, but with that strong high up there, that would favor U.S. hit.


maybe but unlikely track to far out don't even mention it please
Quoting 523. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Alright, ensembles it's your turn.




They already seem to be initalizing more south than last run
Quoting 524. James1981cane:



maybe but unlikely track to far out don't even mention it please
It is fine to mention as a scernario, nothing is set in stone as this is 16 days away.
Quoting 522. thetwilightzone:



why are you saying 99L when we dont have it?


Because i did sorry just hate calling it future 99L or pouch sorry its just the way i roll
98L Floater starting with the Funk Top.

Quoting 518. thetwilightzone:

for the one that do not think 98L can do a track like hurricane IKE from the same spot it is on the GFS is in where here the track hurricane IKE took





What did you say? I can't understand a thing you just said.
Esembles show me the way lol
Quoting 529. HurriHistory:



What did you say? I can't understand a thing you just said.


Cough cough lol
533. JRRP7
nothing new at 2 AM
Quoting 532. thetwilightzone:

.


Nah im just messing with you yeah it could be a Ike but as of now doesn't look like the ridge is wide enough IMo so i am saying no way to far out to even suggest just saying
nothing new on the new tropic weather out look at 2 AM same has 8pm
Quoting 535. James1981cane:



Nah im just messing with you yeah it could be a Ike but as of now doesn't look like the ridge is wide enough IMo so i am saying no way to far out to even suggest just saying



ok sounds good




well am going back too bed
Quoting 534. thetwilightzone:

nothing new at 2 AM


Cough cough
GFS now much slower than EURO and further north.
Quoting 537. thetwilightzone:



ok sounds good




well am going back too bed


Ok by twighlight
Well the 2AM TWO is almost exactly the same as the 8PM one. The NHC never seems to do anything at 2AM.
Quoting 541. HurricaneFan:

Well the 2AM TWO is almost exactly the same as the 8PM one. The NHC never seems to do anything at 2AM.



yep no point in posting it
Quoting 539. CaribBoy:

GFS now much slower than EURO and further north.


Yep the euro has you a visiting storm but the GFS wants you to stay dry
Quoting 541. HurricaneFan:

Well the 2AM TWO is almost exactly the same as the 8PM one. The NHC never seems to do anything at 2AM.


Yeah thats what i am saying
Quoting 541. HurricaneFan:

Well the 2AM TWO is almost exactly the same as the 8PM one. The NHC never seems to do anything at 2AM.
Probably want to see another Euro run.
Quoting 545. Climate175:

Probably want to see another Euro run.


Yep all hail king Euro lol
Quoting 477. washingtonian115:


Fiona in three days I guess. Now waiting to see if it shows Gaston and maybe Hermine.
Quoting 516. washingtonian115:

The end of the run.



Central Atlantic.

Quoting 519. James1981cane:




Western Atlantic.

----

Is the dress yellow/gold or blue/black?
Quoting 548. Astrometeor:



Central Atlantic.



Western Atlantic.

----

Is the dress yellow/gold or blue/black?
Lol that freak out about the colors in early 2015, that was real hilarious.
Quoting 547. allancalderini:

Fiona in three days I guess. Now waiting to see if it shows Gaston and maybe Hermine.


cough cough lol
Quoting 549. Climate175:

Lol that freak out about the colors in early 2015, that was real hilarious.
Me: *Hears about the dress*.......*runs away and hides.*
I was like, who is this! (looking at comment count, stole taz's imoge, ect) then I remembered Taz changed his screen name. Getting old s$$$s at times!

Quoting 522. thetwilightzone:



why are you saying 99L when we dont have it?
Let's go king euro
Quoting 552. swflurker:

I was like, who is this, (looking at comment count, stole taz's imoge, ect) then I remembered Taz changed his screen name. Getting old s$$$s at times!




oh didn't know it was taz lol
Looking at the wind map, there is a nice circulation with this invest (98L).
Looking at the upper steering winds, it should go W/SW for the short term.

Also, that ULL is heading for LA. Hope it doesn't enhance the rain like I thought a few days ago.
Quoting 555. swflurker:

Looking at the wind map, there is a nice circulation with this invest (98L).
Looking at the upper steering winds, it should go due W/SW for the short term.


Yep for now
Quoting 514. thetwilightzone:



did you not see post 510?


Not before I posted my previous comment... And mine was more in jest than being serious...

But from your posts, I gather you basically don't know what it is going to do. And neither does the NHC, they only go out 5 days for good reasons.

I do like to read and talk about the different setups and what could happen, which is why I go to this blog. Sometimes you can tell that the storm in the far out Atlantic has no chance of hitting CONUS because of where it is and the Bermuda High setup and steering layers. (which is where the BAM suite is nice)
You know that's Taz?


Quoting 557. Dakster:



Not before I posted my previous comment... And mine was more in jest than being serious...

But from your posts, I gather you basically don't know what it is going to do. And neither does the NHC, they only go out 5 days for good reasons.

I do like to read and talk about the different setups and what could happen, which is why I go to this blog. Sometimes you can tell that the storm in the far out Atlantic has no chance of hitting CONUS because of where it is and the Bermuda High setup and steering layers. (which is where the BAM suite is nice)


DOOM three storms one new one off africa
go euro
Quoting 562. HurricaneAndre:




Euro is king lol Euro for president of hurricanes
Quoting 559. swflurker:

You know that's Taz?






As far as i know
Must show euro has a cat one wich is the h storm than the G storm is strengthening
Quoting 548. Astrometeor:



Central Atlantic.



Western Atlantic.

----

Is the dress yellow/gold or blue/black?or

It seems like a large storm. Larger potential for high storm surge if it make landfall.
567. Siker
Gonna go ahead and assume that hurricane hitting the Cape Verdes on the Euro is overdone and too far north; the Euro was showing something very similar with this second wave for several runs before recently shifting south.
Quoting 567. Siker:

Gonna go ahead and assume that hurricane hitting the Cape Verdes on the Euro is overdone and too far north; the Euro was showing something very similar with this second wave for several runs before recently shifting south.


Yeah good point
569. Siker
Euro ends with a 987mb hurricane east of the islands.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #31
Storm Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHANTHU (T201607)
15:00 PM JST August 15 2016
================================
About 240 KM East Northeast of Chichi-jima (Ogasawara)

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Chanthu (985 hPa) located at 27.9N 144.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 9 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===========
210 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in western quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
=================
24 HRS: 31.8N 141.5E - 50 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) Southeast Of Hachijo-jima (Izu Islands)
48 HRS: 38.1N 141.6E - 50 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) Southeast Of Ishinomaki (Miyagi Prefecture)
72 HRS: 50.3N 145.5E - Extratropical Low In Sea of ​​Okhotsk
'Historic' Louisiana flooding: Five dead and thousands rescued
BBC, 2 hours ago
At least five people have died and thousands have been rescued after "historic" flooding swamped the US state of Louisiana.
President Barack Obama has declared the state a disaster area, meaning federal aid can be sent to the affected areas. ...



98L comes into sight.
Not sure whether this has been already posted in here:



Youtube link: Incredible Tornado hit Manila, Philippines | 14 08 2016

Timelapse captures incredible sight of a tornado sweeping through Manila
The formation developed in the Port Area after a monsoon had already hit the city in recent days.
Advertisement
Filipino officials told The Telegraph that heavy rains were expected to continue through to the middle of the week.
The Philippine Red Cross has reported no casualties from the tornado.


Philippines: Monsoons: 8 dead, thousands evacuated
(The Philippine Star) | Updated August 15, 2016 - 12:00am
Quoting 541. HurricaneFan:

Well the 2AM TWO is almost exactly the same as the 8PM one. The NHC never seems to do anything at 2AM.


Because they're asleep like you?

:p
575. MahFL
How are storms going to track so far north with the massive solid high we have had all summer in the Atlantic ?
Quoting 575. MahFL:

How are storms going to track so far north with the massive solid high we have had all summer in the Atlantic ?


Euro weakens the high and moves it to the Northeast


578. JRRP7
holy cow!!!!!!
Woah, GFS has "Fiona' dipping down to 963 mbars in 240 hours, along with the potential "Gaston" to the south.

The GFS then has "Gaston" rapidly deepening as it approaches the US.

581. JRRP7
The ECMWF has Fiona and Gaston developing as well, but slightly less aggressive than the GFS.
583. Siker
Uh:

Quoting 583. Siker:

Uh:



It's still pretty far out, so I wouldn't worry about it (yet).
Quoting 580. Gearsts:




Hmm. That wouldn't be good.
Quoting 583. Siker:

Uh:


It appears the GFS is getting a grasp on Pouch 21L in the past few runs.
all these forecast are not set in stone. good luck all this CV season.
589. JRRP7
Quoting 585. JrWeathermanFL:



Hmm. That wouldn't be good.
Unless you want to surf Palm Beach at reef rd. Or Delray.
Good Morning. Still in shock over the flooding in LA. It is of note that we have traditionally seen flooding in the MS Valley region in the Spring, due to flooding rivers from melting snowpack further to the North, or from tropical storms (and this is more like a wet land falling depression as noted in the current blog).

However, we have seen some of the worst flooding this past Fall (Oct 2013) and again in Texas earlier this year and now LA/MS as the result of these nearly stationary upper level lows which sit along the Southern flank of the US or Northern Mexico. If you recall, the Texas flooding a few months ago from the ULL near the MX/TX border, which also drew tropical moisture in from the E-Pac and parts of the Gulf, was similar to the current set-up; it was also called unprecedented in part because of the stuck pattern that caused that low to stay in place for several days.

Something to consider in the future as to whether these type of jet stream driven events will become the norm in the current future often beating out normal Spring riverine flooding due to snow melt.

Invest 98L has now attained a low pressure of 1010mb.
I wake up and see GFS all of the sudden wants to produce monster storms and even agreeing with Euro on Gaston. Interesting..Euro coming in even stronger overnight as well then yesterday afternoons run.
595. JRRP7
6z GFS first run to agree with Euro on development on the wave behind 98L. Takes an almost identical Hurricane Earl of 2010 track. Long range track will be hard to predict, but 98L will play a future role. Why? If 98L becomes strong as it eventually recurves, it will open a bigger weakness in the Bermuda High which will cause the wave behind it to gain latitude. On top of that, in 14 days out(14 days is a long time), GFS shows enough ridging breaking down where the storm turns just east of North Carolina. Probably our first CV storm. Track is 0% certain. Anything beyond 7 days is guessing game. Ensembles will be telling
Looks like a Floyd repeat.
0
Quoting 585. JrWeathermanFL:



Hmm. That wouldn't be good.
Test; problems again loading comments.
Quoting 584. MoneyHurricane:


It's still pretty far out, so I wouldn't worry about it (yet).


Is that a... is that a CAT IV I'm seeing barreling for the NC/SC Coastline??? Damn.
Future models will probably either weaken it drastically or give it a more westward track, likely both. Again, that's 16 long days out...
yes indeed..too far out in time but,something to watch wait and see if this verifies..........
601. JRRP7
looks like dragon ball
Quoting 589. JRRP7:


GFS shows 98L getting stronger as it heads out to sea as a strong tropical storm-hurricane, while Euro says it weakens on its trek NW, don't know which could play out, but 98L is developing nicely.
I wake up and see the GFS trying to create monsters even agreeing with the Euro on Gaston, Interesting...Euro coming in even stronger overnight as well then yesterday afternoons run. Sorry for double post, problems loading comment
Also noting that we need to hope that LA does not get any tropical storms this season, and certainly in the shorter term, to allow the soils to dry out and absorb the current flood waters; hoping for no more suffering for them this year and remember to donate to the Red Cross if you can for those folks.

Quoting 601. JRRP7:

looks like dragon ball

All spread out, high uncertainty as should this far out in time.
606. Tcwx2
Where's Carriboy?
Quoting 591. Gearsts:


Quoting 585. JrWeathermanFL:



Hmm. That wouldn't be good.


Damn that is at least a category four hurricane and could be a five if the maximum intensity scale is correct.
Quoting 606. Tcwx2:

Where's Carriboy?
LOL, yes, once CaribBoy sees this, he really is gonna start dancing, if this was 96 hrs away, he would be doing flips.
The 6z GFS deepens Gaston down to 944mb by the end of the run, actually deepens Gaston over the Bahamas from 997mb to 944mb, that is roughly a deepening of 55mb over a few days, unbelievable for a computer model which is global in nature.
The ensembles show the high uncertainty with Gaston and Fiona one of them could threaten the Eastern US.
612. beell

Current CIMSS 850 mb Vort
613. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA/NASA-Washington State U through WWLLN (lightning network)
AREA:: GoMx
D&T:: 201608-04;0515u  till 201608-15;0445u
SAT TYPE:: Lightning over IR.
OBS:: The SnailLow or The GyroLow. Used "Gyro" short for Gyroscopic as both spins balanced out the motion to become independent and stationary. Latter due to cutoff situation while aforementioned could be it did not have to go anywhere to tap into the new atmos v2.0a where usually a LOW has to tap / go the watervapour source (move into a warmer body of water) with atmos v2.0a the vapour is all around. (BTW i use v2.0a where "a" represents anthropogenic since Earth has had tons of versions of atmospheres but mankind had 1, the naturally ebbing and flowing that allowed mankind to exist and develope (my 2cents) through ice ages (brain / soul mutations) and Radon Ages (physical / body mutations) and now its the warm forcing
version...or i could be 99.9% wrong.















here 628x496 actual dimension 408x321 is SMALLER- YOUTUBE
https://www.youtube.com/v/BqRJ-Ae47RQ
00
ABNT20 KNHC 151147
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms well in
advance of it. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this disturbance during the next few days
before conditions become less favorable later this week. The system
is forecast to move west-northwestward at about 15 mph over the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
615. beell
617. Tcwx2
Haha!!!
Quoting 609. Climate175:

LOL, yes, once CaribBoy sees this, he really is gonna start dancing, if this was 96 hrs away, he would be doing flips.
618. Tcwx2
Well off to school for me for my first day of 10th grade. Gee where did the summer go?
HurricaneTrackerApp @hurrtrackerapp 57m
Remarkable 10 day forecast agreement between EURO/GFS of possible #Gaston headed WNW towards islands. (Behind #98L)
98L...

the GFS has Gaston directly over Dominica on August 26th. This is exactly a year since TS Erica destroyed the country....
If you are on the bandwagon of 98L for development, then you better hope the western circulation center takes over soon or this bugger is going to stay weak and head west.
end of August might get interesting....................................... .............
Euro shows 98L not doing much, still think it will be Fiona but in the 7-10 day period actually strengthens the next 2 waves fairly quick and strong into Gaston and Hermine, Future Gaston seems to be the threat down the road. I've said since Earl dissipated this is the week the tropics will come alive. Good tracking days ahead.
GFS with 98L, close-up. The HWRF and GFDL still have not run on 98L, but they will sometime today, I also can't wait to see what they will say when we get Invest 99L in the future.
Quoting 625. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Euro shows 98L not doing much, still think it will be Fiona but in the 7-10 day period actually strengthens the next 2 waves fairly quick and strong into Gaston and Hermine, Future Gaston seems to be the threat down the road. I've said since Earl dissipated this is the week the tropics will come alive. Good tracking days ahead.
Future 99L and 90L.
Look at the flow right now with high pressure. Wonder how this will work out when time nears.
Quoting 622. Climate175:


Fun times ahead it looks like.
Quoting 630. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Fun times ahead it looks like.


Not sure what you are talking about this season is over. Busted.
Pouch 21L currently over the middle-southern part of the country Benin, still on tap to exit the coast in 3 days.
Quoting 631. VAbeachhurricanes:



Not sure what you are talking about this season is over. Busted.


Whoever said this season is over doesn't know how the tropical season works.
That pesky SAL is trying to work its way in again, will be a question as to how strong these waves get and will mid level dry air be a problem too, shear is not the inhibiting factor
Quoting 630. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Fun times ahead it looks like.
98L is at 25W but is still only at 10N. It's chugging west ATM.
Great report doc. thank you. we"re as dry as a bone here in cape may
every time a storm goes by, the Del. bay kills it ,moves it or shut s it off until it goes by. hope to see some rain soon. my lawn is begging for a drink.
Quoting 637. Grothar:




With that high 98L is not turning north anytime soon
Quoting 635. TheDawnAwakening:



Whoever said this season is over doesn't know how the tropical season works.
It's called "trolling". Unless one posts facts and analysis supporting such a claim, they are just trying to bait a response. ... I hope with the new blog we can have an include list in addition to an ignore list. It would be much easier to manage.
Quoting 639. Tornado6042008X:

What gives dude? Isn't this season supposed to be dead?


This isn't the time to be bitter man.
Quoting 643. TheDawnAwakening:



This isn't the time to be bitter man.
lol I know. I was joking. Some have been saying that the season is dead and will stay dead.
Micheal Ventrice @MJVentrice 2h
Calibrated ECMWF Ens have jumped to 70-80% chance of formation for #98L o/the MDR this week. Watch the next AEW too

That is a cool pic. Grothar
Quoting 636. Grothar:


Quoting 636. Grothar:


Quoting 591. Gearsts:


Correct me if I'm wrong, but the system over PR in this chart couldn't be 98L? Right?
Quoting 647. nocanesplease:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the system over PR in this chart couldn't be 98L? Right?


Nope. This would be a separate system which has yet to emerge off Africa. This system is also being shown on the ECMWF.
That is a cool pic. Grothar.
Quoting 636. Grothar:


Looking good from that view! Just needs to keep firing convection over the eastern part of the system, it should get there at a reasonable and gradual pace, these type of storms like to take their time, NHC even notes gradually in their wording.
Quoting 648. CybrTeddy:



Nope. This would be a separate system which has yet to emerge off Africa. This system is also being shown on the ECMWF.
Yep, 98L goes out to sea.
Quoting 648. CybrTeddy:



Nope. This would be a separate system which has yet to emerge off Africa. This system is also being shown on the ECMWF.
Thanks. Maybe the system shown in satellite images around Nigeria?
Quoting 652. nocanesplease:

Thanks. Maybe the system shown in satellite images around Nigeria?
Yes, Benin now to be exact, the center got past Nigeria many hours ago.
Quoting 651. HurricaneAndre:

Yep, 98L goes out to sea.
I'm confused. You said north. Others say that the high pressure in the ATL will keep it west? How we know where is heading?

Watch out for 99L on the east coast!
Quoting 651. HurricaneAndre:

Yep, 98L goes out to sea.



has long has 98L stays weak and with this strong high in place 98L is not going out too see in fact nothing is going out too sea any time soon



Quoting 654. nocanesplease:

I'm confused. You said north. Others say that the high pressure in the ATL will keep it west? How we know where is heading?



with a strong high in place nothing is going out too sea every thing will head W
Quoting 656. thetwilightzone:




has long has 98L stays weak and with this strong high in place 98L is not going out too see in fact nothing is going out too sea any time soon






There is big trough coming off the east coast of US in the next 200 hours.
Quoting 654. nocanesplease:

I'm confused. You said north. Others say that the high pressure in the ATL will keep it west? How we know where is heading?
Both GFS and Euro have it going NW over the next 3-5 days, it is currently moving west, but that will change soon, Euro is weaker with it, GFS on the other hand stronger.
i think this is wrong

AL, 98, 2016081512, , BEST, 0, 92N, 237W, 20, 1009,
Quoting 658. TheDawnAwakening:



There is big trough coming off the east coast of US in the next 200 hours.



well that dos us no good has that is way out there
Quoting 660. thetwilightzone:

i think this is wrong

AL, 98, 2016081512, , BEST, 0, 92N, 237W, 20, 1009,
No looks quite right to me
AL, 98, 2016081506, , BEST, 0, 92N, 221W, 20, 1009, DB
AL, 98, 2016081512, , BEST, 0, 92N, 237W, 20, 1009, DB
Quoting 660. thetwilightzone:

i think this is wrong

AL, 98, 2016081512, , BEST, 0, 92N, 237W, 20, 1009,


Looks fine to me based on satellite imagery.
Quoting 665. Drakoen:



Looks fine to me based on satellite imagery.


Same here Drak, looks good to me.
First Hurricane season on the blog, I'm glad I am apart of it with all of you!
Quoting 660. thetwilightzone:

i think this is wrong

AL, 98, 2016081512, , BEST, 0, 92N, 237W, 20, 1009,


For sure not at 92N and 237W lol
Quoting 665. Drakoen:



Looks fine to me based on satellite imagery.


is 92N not the gulf ???
Quoting 668. WeatherkidJoe2323:



For sure not at 92N and 237W lol


9.2N and 23.7W
Quoting 671. GeoffreyWPB:



9.2N and 23.7W


ok i see whats going on now thank
Quoting 670. GeoffreyWPB:




5 of the 7 Spaghetti Models on that take 98L eventually to a strong TS to weak Hurricane, but as TA13 says, it doesn't really matter until we get an actual named storm to form first.
Quoting 667. WeatherkidJoe2323:

First Hurricane season on the blog, I'm glad I am apart of it with all of you!
Glad you are enjoying yourself.
675. beell
Unless it re-consolidates and follows the MT.
98L not developing as fast like some of the models have it.. moving steady west at the moment..Its almost due south of the cape verde islands Something to keep a close eye on..And its still below 10N
i have serious doubts about the track of 98L. At the moment the system has been moving at a westward track for the last 18 hrs with little indication of an increase in latitude. also the steering pattern from africa towards the Lesser Antilles i from east to west ,with little indication of a northward track. we will have to wait the next 48 hrs to see if the track of the GFS pans out.
Maybe the HWRF and GFDL will start running when the 12z GFS and CMC start coming out, so during the 12z.
any chance something will develop in the bay of Campeche?.....................................
Beautiful town. Used to surf the jetties on big Nor'easters. Best venue for the lifeguard nationals. Did 2 or 3 there. Even stayed in the Admiral (Christian Admiral) hotel in 1988. Maybe some of this late week moisture will get pulled up your way.

Quoting 640. andycapt:

Great report doc. thank you. we"re as dry as a bone here in cape may
every time a storm goes by, the Del. bay kills it ,moves it or shut s it off until it goes by. hope to see some rain soon. my lawn is begging for a drink.
Quoting 679. LargoFl:

any chance something will develop in the bay of Campeche?.....................................
There was a run on the NAVGEM showing development there.
Quoting 649. andycapt:

That is a cool pic. Grothar.


Thanks, Andy. Climate175 has stolen all my good ones, but he let me keep this one so I can have something to post. :)
Quoting 682. Grothar:



Thanks, Andy. Climate175 has stolen all my good ones, but he let me keep this one so I can have something to post. :)
I have have confined you to just one, that will be your one to post. LOL
Quoting 674. Climate175:

Glad you are enjoying yourself.


Passion for studying and understanding the atmosphere since 5 now 21. Following the blog last couple years with all the great info, glad to have finally signed up 4 months ago where people share the passion. Now lets track some storms.
Good Morning Folks! I see we have a nice looking wave off Africa and potentially more. Getting close to that time of the year
688. ariot
The news reports of the number of people who had to be rescued in Louisiana keeps rising.

It is nearing 3 percent of the state's population.

If you have lived in or driven through the state enough to be familiar with the areas most-impacted, this is surreal.

This isn't normal LA flooding, it is a new chapter in their weather history, and needs to be addressed long term through public policy.
690. MahFL
Quoting 641. WeatherkidJoe2323:



With that high 98L is not turning north anytime soon


That's what I was saying...
Dude, I'm glad u r here.

Quoting 667. WeatherkidJoe2323:

First Hurricane season on the blog, I'm glad I am apart of it with all of you!
Quoting 683. Climate175:

I have have confined you to just one, that will be your one to post. LOL


what a guy!! It looks like a busy few weeks. I think the 3rd wave will be the one to watch. It seems most long range models favor this one, especially to remain more on a westerly track. For 98L, I think the early models are moving it too fast to the north. I believe the next models may be a little more WNW than NW. I post it, but I'm afraid you will know where I get it :):)
Looks like the last few frames 98L was going little more south. Usually these storms that starts doing that is the ones that gives us trouble down the road. Anyways will see, troughs are coming, so that will determine where the storms are going
695. MahFL
Quoting 688. ariot:

This isn't normal LA flooding, it is a new chapter in their weather history, and needs to be addressed long term through public policy.


What public policy ?
Interesting change in the GFS.

697. MahFL
Quoting 688. ariot:

The news reports of the number of people who had to be rescued in Louisiana keeps rising.

It is nearing 3 percent of the state's population.


I think your math is a bit off. 20k rescues out of a population of 4,692,458 is 0.4 %.
Quoting 688. ariot:

The news reports of the number of people who had to be rescued in Louisiana keeps rising.

It is nearing 3 percent of the state's population.

If you have lived in or driven through the state enough to be familiar with the areas most-impacted, this is surreal.

This isn't normal LA flooding, it is a new chapter in their weather history, and needs to be addressed long term through public policy.

Thant can't be correct - the population is 4.67 million, so the corresponding 3% is over 140,000.
Looks like Hurricane Season is about to get the rollercoaster started. Check out the Potential MJO. This this thing almost lasts till the end of September almost. Active times ahead folks! Don't be surprised to see some sneak attack storms come out the ordinary.
702. MahFL
Quoting 699. Greg01:


Thant can't be correct - the population is 4.67 million, so the corresponding 3% is over 140,000.


It was off by only a factor of 7 lol.
Quoting 684. Climate175:




That is the dumbest graphic of all time lol
That spin over Benin(Pouch 21L) seems very nice and is tight decent spin, gonna be decent when it goes off in a few days.
Quoting 694. Grothar:




Hunker down!
Quoting 703. VAbeachhurricanes:



That is the dumbest graphic of all time lol
I am laughing so hard at the screen right now, because this comment had me rolling. How so?
708. MahFL
Doom ! and a Florida miss :(...

Interesting that the GFS and ECMWF agree on our possible "future Gaston." If the GFS and ECMWF are right, this storm would have a good chance at being our first major of the season if it gets into the warm waters of the Western Atlantic.

With "Fiona," the GFS keeps it weak at first before intensifying it into a hurricane later in the run.

ECMWF also develops "Hermine" as a strong TS/hurricane near Cape Verde...

Very interesting times are ahead.

And here a lot of us were last month saying the season was a bust. August 15 is when the switch usually flips, and it looks like that's exactly what's happening now.
What's interesting is the trend that I've noticed with GFS more so 00Z and 06Z runs looking at system behind 98L (I'm calling it PRE/99L)
Trend has been a big jump South and West in track and much much stronger (might be the best shot at first major hurricane) and thinking about it if this trend continues we could be looking at maybe a Hurricane maybe major too going through the Caribbean and ending up in the GOM

Anyway too early to say for sure but just something to note

Also with 98L there also has been some changes a slight jog South and West in track and slightly stronger too

Anyway I'm having some doubts of 98L developing as quickly as models are stating and movement WNW-NW by models
I do think strengthening will be at a more steady pace and also movement to be West with a gradual WNW movement later on

good morning boys and girls......just a la nina note..........the 3.4 zone...if averaged the last 8 weeks....has been i the la nina zone
712. MahFL
Quoting 710. wunderkidcayman:

...maybe a Hurricane maybe major too going through the Caribbean and ending up in the GOM .




That's just wishful thinking, the models have it going east of Florida, no where near the GOM.
Quoting 606. Tcwx2:

Where's Carriboy?


Nice 6z run of the GFS
Quoting 712. MahFL:



That's just wishful thinking, the models have it going east of Florida, no where near the GOM.


Well at this point everything is wishful thinking. Or nothing is...
Quoting 605. Climate175:

All spread out, high uncertainty as should this far out in time.


Way too many fish solutions.... Annoying :\
Quoting 609. Climate175:

LOL, yes, once CaribBoy sees this, he really is gonna start dancing, if this was 96 hrs away, he would be doing flips.


That scenario is indeed very exciting!! But.... :\
Shields are up already!
Quoting 708. MahFL:

Doom ! and a Florida miss :(...


Quoting 716. CaribBoy:



That scenario is indeed very exciting!! But.... :\
Your Mood will be going up and down for the next 5-7 days, that I know! :)
jb says watch out carib the second one could have a ridge over it push it west.
720. Siker
Quoting 707. Climate175:

I am laughing so hard at the screen right now, because this comment had me rolling. How so?


I think he means because for some reason yellow is a negative color with all the blues when it should be the same sign as the oranges. Gives a false sense of warmth.
721. 7544
Quoting 717. hurricanewatcher61:

Shields are up already!


maybe not a miss this one will be all about the timing way to early for anyone to call at this point stay tuned
Quoting 701. bigwes6844:

Looks like Hurricane Season is about to get the rollercoaster started. Check out the Potential MJO. This this thing almost lasts till the end of September almost. Active times ahead folks! Don't be surprised to see some sneak attack storms come out the ordinary.



I believe I remember reading in a Doc Masters post a few years back in which he stated, the best position for the mjo to be in regards to tc formation is actually the Indian Ocean basin.
It remains to be seen whether we will start to see the start of the Cape Verde season in earnest in the near future (short-term). Models, and speculation aside for the moment, here are current conditions downstream for any potential wave development in terms of current sheer levels, SAL, and ssts: note the very favorable shear out ahead of the current wave.





Quoting 720. Siker:



I think he means because for some reason yellow is a negative color with all the blues when it should be the same sign as the oranges. Gives a false sense of warmth.
Oh ok, yea, that can make it confusing.
Quoting 707. Climate175:

I am laughing so hard at the screen right now, because this comment had me rolling. How so?

Why is 0 to -0.5C still yellow lol?
The current downside for the wave is the latitude (needs to gain some), some marginal SSTs (until you get closer to the lesser antilles), and very dry air out ahead of it:



Quoting 726. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Why is -0.5C still yellow lol?
I see now XDD.
Quoting 723. chrisdscane:



384 no worry yet.
But this one will help moisten the path for the ones that follow over the next few weeks:

Quoting 722. GatorWX:



I believe I remember reading in a Doc Masters post a few years back in which he stated, the best position for the mjo to be in regards to tc formation is actually the Indian Ocean basin.
Why is that and which of the three versions of that chart is best-EWP, GFS, or this one the CFS?
Good Morning World! A sunny start here on the west coast of Florida. Sending my well wishes to the flood victims in Louisiana and a huge thank you to all of those who have come to assist in the relief and recovery efforts.

Lovely view of the western hemisphere:



Asia Pacific:



Indian Ocean:

Quoting 712. MahFL:



That's just wishful thinking, the models have it going east of Florida, no where near the GOM.


Actually it's not

It's just following the trend with the models that all yes the current run has it E of Fl but based on the runs before current likely future runs might be further Westwards

It a wait and see game

Quoting 719. islander101010:

jb says watch out carib the second one could have a ridge over it push it west.


I agree with that

Quoting 685. WeatherkidJoe2323:



Passion for studying and understanding the atmosphere since 5 now 21. Following the blog last couple years with all the great info, glad to have finally signed up 4 months ago where people share the passion. Now lets track some storms.
Yes, looks like Shrek's wife very soon.
Quoting 621. java162:

the GFS has Gaston directly over Dominica on August 26th. This is exactly a year since TS Erica destroyed the country....


Erika was a sheared TS, with LLC jumping north and south all the time. Gaston could be a well developed TC and will likely miss Dominica IMO.
Fiona could impact the US more and more if it stays further southwest than forecasted by the models. Just watch this system come further and further west of 60w longitude in future runs.
Quoting 735. Climate175:

Yes, looks like Shrek's wife very soon.


Lol yes Fiona is likely on the way this week. Interested to see the afternoon model runs
I see the GFS has finally caved into line with the Euro.Euro is still consistent with three named storms forming over the next two weeks but both models agree that "Gaston" is the one to watch but no track is set in stone right now as I remember the first runs had what would be Irene headed for Texas.I hope the ones mocking now with a smirk on their faces have the same smirk when a storm is headed in their direction.We here in D.C have N.C and V.A to protect us somewhat to the south.I'm hoping south Florida avoids another landfalling cane this year.
What are the theoretical winds associated with future Gaston on the GFS model at hour 384?
743. 7544
Quoting 739. NCHurricaneTracker69:




future runs may show a fla threat for awhile imo its all about timing of the trof
Quoting 741. TheDawnAwakening:

What are the theoretical winds associated with future Gaston on the GFS model at hour 384?
Probably Category 4 130-156 mph.....based on the one model run of course ;^)
Quoting 739. NCHurricaneTracker69:




Wonder who it will be pointing to tomorrow.....
I don't know if South Florida will avoid a hurricane landfall, but I am pretty sure they will be as prepared as any city in the region.
Quoting 741. TheDawnAwakening:

What are the theoretical winds associated with future Gaston on the GFS model at hour 384?
hypothetical anything from 0 155 mph
Category four winds with category four pressure, makes sense.
Quoting 730. weathermanwannabe:

But this one will help moisten the path for the ones that follow over the next few weeks:


Since beginning of Hurricane Season we have heard moistening ahead of the other storms.
The center of 98L appears to be approaching 30W at around 6-8N latitude.
751. JRRP
Quoting 719. islander101010:

jb says watch out carib the second one could have a ridge over it push it west.

Yeap
Good consensus among the models on the 2nd wave. Potentially a dangerous pattern if it heads towards the Caribbean.

ASCAT shows part of the circulation, the western side of the surface circulation with 98L is near 30W.
Quoting 752. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Good consensus among the models on the 2nd wave. Potentially a dangerous pattern if it heads towards the Caribbean.




The Fim9 has Fiona where the GFS has her too.
Quoting 749. victoria780:

Since beginning of Hurricane Season we have heard moistening ahead of the other storms.


Yeah but the SAL has been pretty thick the past several weeks and just starting to lighten up. The Central Atl ITCZ was looking good the past few weeks, but SAL suppressed, and now there will be a little bit of time lag for it to get going again in the wake of the SAL retreat (if we get a good number of successive waves emerging off the Coast over the next several weeks).
I'm surprised that hasn't happened already. These model runs usually have Florida as a hit and then change after several runs. Hope it doesn't turn out to be the opposite.
Quoting 743. 7544:



future runs may show a fla threat for awhile imo its all about timing of the trof
Quoting 696. Grothar:

Interesting change in the GFS.




I'm still ok with 2 potential storms impacting me :)
The Gulf is juiced

And awaiting an entity to arrive at any time to fuel it's needs

Recent RapidScat


Quoting 747. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

hypothetical anything from 0 155 mph


Sounds like my theoretical snow forecast when people ask me a week prior. I always tell them

"less than a meter"


(and it is a testament to what can happen here in the Mid Atlantic that I've been wrong twice for a point within 100km of me)
Quoting 745. SELAliveforthetropic:



Wonder who it will be pointing to tomorrow.....


Likely elsewhere.
Jeff Masters and blog should talk about this...

Mass 'die-off' reported at Flower Garden Banks National Marine Sanctuary, Divers report dead coral, sponges, sea urchins and clams

GALVESTON – A mass die-off of coral and other sea animals was discovered this week on a reef in the Flower Garden Banks National Marine Sanctuary, federal officials said Friday.
Sports divers discovered the damage Monday on the East Flower Garden Bank, about 100 miles southeast of Galveston, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in a report.
Divers from the motor vessel Fling "were stunned to find green, hazy water, huge patches of ugly white mats coating corals and sponges, and dead animals littering the bottom of the East Flower Garden Bank, a reef normally filled with color and marine life,
" wrote Steve Gittings, chief scientist in NOAA's Office of National Marine Sanctuaries.
Quoting 743. 7544:



future runs may show a fla threat for awhile imo its all about timing of the trof


At this range it's about what the butterflies are doing in CA meadows
Waters getting too hot, killing everything off
Gonna take some majors to cool off the GOM
Good morning, all.

As we hit the end of August, moving to the beginning of September, we need to keep an eye on what should bring a change in patterns.

We should start seeing some troughing/fronts begin to slide off the E coast, making it harder for Cape Verde storms to head due W for the duration of their cycles. That's not to say one or two won't sneak by...
HurricaneTracker App ‏@hurrtrackerapp 4h
Remarkable 10 day forecast agreement between EURO/GFS of possible #Gaston headed WNW towards islands. (Behind #98L)
Quoting 768. MoneyHurricane:


pretty potent circulation. Interesting what happens today.
Center of 98L's gyre is roughly between 6-8N latitude and 28-30W longitude.
Quoting 762. georgevandenberghe:



Likely elsewhere.

Stay Tuned!
Quoting 771. HurricaneAndre:

pretty potent circulation. Interesting whst happens today.
I agree Andre.
Quoting 771. HurricaneAndre:

pretty potent circulation. Interesting what happens today.


I'm pretty sure we will get Fiona out of this.
If anyone is prepared for a hurricane... It's SFL
Nice current shot of the wave and what lies behind it on the Continent:



Hey .... the news re the flooding in LA is heartrending ... possibly 7 deaths, 20000+ evacuated people stranded overnight on the interstate .... flooding looks like the Mississippi broke its banks. Hard to fathom ....

Here we're between clouds and sun, which is keeping the temps from soaring too quickly .... but it's HUMID.



portlight.org

Greetings, Friends:

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Quoting 777. Camerooski:

If anyone is prepared for a hurricane... It's SFL
Also if future 99L does make it into the Western Atlantic, like the GFS and almost Euro before the run ends is showing, and it wants to head towards land, that would be an issue since Labor Day Weekend would be right around the corner.
Quoting 712. MahFL:



That's just wishful thinking, the models have it going east of Florida, no where near the GOM.
Geez... You realize how frequently models show twaves shooting up the middle of the ATL as strong storms, when eventually the twaves pass through or just north of the Antilles? Another season I might agree about the wishful thinking. This year the ridge has been persistent enough for such a track to be a real possibility. I'm not saying it WILL happen. However, to treat it like it's an impossibility based on models 10 days out is not very thoughtful.

Watch and see, rather than stating future certainties.
Surface maps still show 98L attached to MT/ITCZ. The apparent W/SW motion confirms. It will be interesting to see how long it stays attached. Models showing a NW movement soon. I think models are too aggressive with N/NW movement.
785. ariot
Quoting 699. Greg01:


Thant can't be correct - the population is 4.67 million, so the corresponding 3% is over 140,000.


I must have read an incorrect assessment, you are right. Perhaps it was the number of people impacted by floodwaters and not the number of people "rescued". That is hovering around 20K.

My larger point is that, having lived in SW LA and SE TX off and on for years, and driving the I-12 at least a hundred times, the flooding there is just shocking.

Quoting 767. nash36:

Good morning, all.

As we hit the end of August, moving to the beginning of September, we need to keep an eye on what should bring a change in patterns.

We should start seeing some troughing/fronts begin to slide off the E coast, making it harder for Cape Verde storms to head due W for the duration of their cycles. That's not to say one or two won't sneak by...
Been sneaking already this year.
12z GFS: Let's see what ya do.
I do expect a west movement on the models soon, really need to pay attention with this one. This reminds me of Ivan when it was the same track as this one. I followed that storm all the way until it hit MBY.
the second ones course reminds me of the H storm in 89



FEMA declaration,Louisiana

Louisiana Severe Storms and Flooding (DR-4277)

Incident period: August 11, 2016
Major Disaster Declaration declared on August 14, 2016

Designated Parishes: East Baton Rouge, Livingston, St. Helena, and Tangipahoa. Damage assessments are continuing for other parishes.

Please visit disasterassistance.gov to apply for assistance.

All sections collapsed. Click to expand all sectionsExpand All Sections
Quoting 740. washingtonian115:

I see the GFS has finally caved into line with the Euro.Euro is still consistent with three named storms forming over the next two weeks but both models agree that "Gaston" is the one to watch but no track is set in stone right now as I remember the first runs had what would be Irene headed for Texas.I hope the ones mocking now with a smirk on their faces have the same smirk when a storm is headed in their direction.We here in D.C have N.C and V.A to protect us somewhat to the south.I'm hoping south Florida avoids another landfalling cane this year.

I'd like to hope our chances of avoiding a landfalling hurricane were good, but unless we see some change to that high pressure ridge, I expect at least one of these three will make landfall somewhere. From its current location 98L could potentially impact just about any area of the western ATL coastline. I'm watching what happens with the troughing over the US midwest, as that at least potentially could influence long-term track. It's a good time to start studying your WV loops ... [As vis0 would say, NOT the same as Fruit Loops .... lol]
Quoting 784. MonsterTrough:

Surface maps still show 98L attached to MT/ITCZ. The apparent W/SW motion confirms. It will be interesting to see how long it stays attached. Models showing a NW movement soon. I think models are too aggressive with N/NW movement.


It is currently a low-rider for sure and would have to organize relatively quickly before starting the jog to the North; have to see how much it organizes over the next 48 before the models recalculate again with a better idea on development: looking good but it still has a way to go









DISASTER KIT
FYI -
I've expanded the DK to list all items in bundles of "packages" by a category of "layers" to be included or not included for evacuation as the situation and expected severity may warrant. I also intend to write an article on the subject of Disaster Kits with the premise that it is not so much a "kit" as it is a "blivet", which, according to the official definition, a blivet is:
"An impossible trident, also known as an impossible fork, a blivet, poiuyt, devil's tuning fork, etc., is a drawing of an impossible object (undecipherable figure), a kind of an optical illusion."
Or as more commonly known, 10 pounds of crap in a 5 pound bag.
WU mail me with suggestions or recommendations, or use the HP gmail address listed at the bottom of the cover page.
TIA
Moving almost due north at 66 hours.
Most of the current vort with 98L (as of 11:00 am) is at the mid-levels with an elongated surface area; it will take some time for the low and mid levels to gel:


Mid:



Surface:

 

800. vis0
CREDIT:: NASA(Langley)/Meteostat  & NOAA   (NASA)

D&T:: On aniGIF
OBS:: Fr those hungering for an per hour (or faster) imagery of the latest pouch.
PRESENTATION:: aniGIF ~5,000KB
NOTE:: i have 2 pence onthat TWIL will reTWurn.

BTW TWIL Grothar did not call it first ....Grothar called it before first...only person i know that can do that...Lets OB the BLOB. (Grothar called blobcon1 ~36hrs ago)
image host
By the looks, the spin in 98L does not get tighter until Wed, so it will take 1-2 more days for the elongated low to become a tighter low.
12z GFS is farther north and shows 98L remaining a TD for a while. Makes 98L a weak TS at 96 hours.
Quoting 802. HurricaneFan:

12z GFS is farther north and shows 98L remaining a TD for a while. Have not seen any TS winds yet


That turn to the north seems too quick, I'm unsure if that will happen especially if it remains weaker the next couple days and with the ridge to the north.
I concur.

Quoting 792. weathermanwannabe:



It is currently a low-rider for sure and would have to organize relatively quickly before starting the jog to the North; have to see how much it organizes over the next 48 before the models recalculate again with a better idea on development: looking good but it still has a way to go








12z GFS appears to be coming in stronger than the 00z with 98L but further north.
Quoting 741. TheDawnAwakening:

What are the theoretical winds associated with future Gaston on the GFS model at hour 384?
planning a picnic?
Quoting 759. nrtiwlnvragn:

Recent RapidScat



That's actually pretty decent, if a bit elongated ... with maybe competing centres ....

Quoting 767. nash36:

Good morning, all.

As we hit the end of August, moving to the beginning of September, we need to keep an eye on what should bring a change in patterns.

We should start seeing some troughing/fronts begin to slide off the E coast, making it harder for Cape Verde storms to head due W for the duration of their cycles. That's not to say one or two won't sneak by...
Hey, nash. Still on 2nd shift?
Agree on the troughing.... A lot depends on how deeply they dig ... could lead to some screwy tracks, too.
Pretty excited to be part of this blog! Been following it for a while but never made an account. (Love studying Hurricanes)

Firstly, very sad about the flooding down in the gulf. Whatever that "blob" was, it sure as hell left behind a lot of damage. Scariest part is I wondered if it was a precursor of what's to come down the line in regards to Hurricane Season.

Second, I saw a photo of a model run for Aug 31 that showed a strong Hurricane off the SC/NC Coast. Could any one tell me where that originated (meaning, the T-Wave that may be attached to that forecast). I know it's SUPER far out and isn't set in stone but I'd still like to learn more about how the computer models pick up on these things, etc.
Howdy all from Houston! Our land-based tropical depression just keeps on giving. The nearest official gauge to my house is now at 6.72 inches, with one a couple of miles northwest of it showing almost 9 inches, and we still have lots of wet stuff heading our way. We still have some parkland areas that haven't reopened since the floods in April, so this should get interesting. Stay safe, and stay dry!
Quoting 809. StormSearcher86:

Pretty excited to be part of this blog! Been following it for a while but never made an account. (Love studying Hurricanes)

Firstly, very sad about the flooding down in the gulf. Whatever that "blob" was, it sure as hell left behind a lot of damage. Scariest part is I wondered if it was a precursor of what's to come down the line in regards to Hurricane Season.

Second, I saw a photo of a model run for Aug 31 that showed a strong Hurricane off the SC/NC Coast. Could any one tell me where that originated (meaning, the T-Wave that may be attached to that forecast). I know it's SUPER far out and isn't set in stone but I'd still like to learn more about how the computer models pick up on these things, etc.
Welcome to the blog! That wave that the GFS develops into a Hurricane off the Southeast Coast originates from Pouch 21L, which is still over West Africa at the current time.
Link

Great writing on an historic event.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
The GFS turns 98L into a decent tropical storm.
Quoting 695. MahFL:



What public policy ?


A revision of FEMA's FIRM maps would be a good start. I cannot even tell you how many of these areas are zoned X, which is not a flood zone. There will be a huge swath of uninsured people with total losses. Frankly, I feel that anyone who resides in South Louisiana should have an SFIP, but many don't want to buy a product they don't "need."
Quoting 805. CybrTeddy:

12z GFS appears to be coming in stronger than the 00z with 98L but further north.


Its not a "threater" as the younguns were fond of saying,esp our former curtain nemisis.

👌
With the strong model support I think it's likely we will see Code Orange at 2PM. Surprised we haven't seen it yet when the latest ECMWF, GFS and CMC runs all develop 98L in the next 3 days or so. 30% odds seems low when most of our reliable models develop an invest.
Quoting 795. mikatnight:



DISASTER KIT
FYI -
I've expanded the DK to list all items in bundles of "packages" by a category of "layers" to be included or not included for evacuation as the situation and expected severity may warrant. I also intend to write an article on the subject of Disaster Kits with the premise that it is not so much a "kit" as it is a "blivet", which, according to the official definition, a blivet is:
"An impossible trident, also known as an impossible fork, a blivet, poiuyt, devil's tuning fork, etc., is a drawing of an impossible object (undecipherable figure), a kind of an optical illusion."
Or as more commonly known, 10 pounds of crap in a 5 pound bag.
WU mail me with suggestions or recommendations, or use the HP gmail address listed at the bottom of the cover page.
TIA
Great resources, thanks for the time and effort you put into this!!
819. tj175
And long overdue for a impact from a storm. The one thing I am worried about is the complacency factor of not being struck by a storm for well over 10 years coupled with the amount of new high rises that have sprung up over South Florida especially in Miami. Very worrisome indeed

Quoting 777. Camerooski:

If anyone is prepared for a hurricane... It's SFL
Quoting 811. Climate175:

Welcome to the blog! That wave that the GFS develops into a Hurricane off the Southeast Coast originates from Pouch 21L, which is still over West Africa at the current time.


Thank you so much for answering that question and thank you for welcoming me to the blog!

What are your thoughts on the scenario of that Pouch becoming as potent as that forecast and the possibility of it actually occurring? I have family in NC so I always want to be on top of knowing and understanding Hurricane formation and forecasting so much more. Also, from what it LOOKS like (and my general understanding of storms), that scenario can also have the storm move north toward NYC (Where I live) so of course, I'm even more curious about it's development/future.
Quoting 809. StormSearcher86:

Pretty excited to be part of this blog! Been following it for a while but never made an account. (Love studying Hurricanes)

Firstly, very sad about the flooding down in the gulf. Whatever that "blob" was, it sure as hell left behind a lot of damage. Scariest part is I wondered if it was a precursor of what's to come down the line in regards to Hurricane Season.

Second, I saw a photo of a model run for Aug 31 that showed a strong Hurricane off the SC/NC Coast. Could any one tell me where that originated (meaning, the T-Wave that may be attached to that forecast). I know it's SUPER far out and isn't set in stone but I'd still like to learn more about how the computer models pick up on these things, etc.
Welcome to the blog .... Lots of good information out there about the various models and how they work .... but just to see the model run itself, you can check out WUblogger Levi's site, tropicaltidbits.com.
Quoting 795. mikatnight:



DISASTER KIT
FYI -
I've expanded the DK to list all items in bundles of "packages" by a category of "layers" to be included or not included for evacuation as the situation and expected severity may warrant. I also intend to write an article on the subject of Disaster Kits with the premise that it is not so much a "kit" as it is a "blivet", which, according to the official definition, a blivet is:
"An impossible trident, also known as an impossible fork, a blivet, poiuyt, devil's tuning fork, etc., is a drawing of an impossible object (undecipherable figure), a kind of an optical illusion."
Or as more commonly known, 10 pounds of crap in a 5 pound bag.
WU mail me with suggestions or recommendations, or use the HP gmail address listed at the bottom of the cover page.
TIA

Excellent and comprehensive guide, thank you for the time and effort putting this together.
Quoting 816. Patrap:



Its not a "threater" as the younguns were fond of saying,esp our former curtain nemisis.

👌


How goes it Patrap? How is the weather in LA holding up for you?
Quoting 821. BahaHurican:

Welcome to the blog .... Lots of good information out there about the various models and how they work .... but just to see the model run itself, you can check out WUblogger Levi's site, tropicaltidbits.com.


Thank you for the welcome! And thank you for that info, I'll check out that site now!
825. JRRP