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Record Flooding in Southeast Louisiana May Get Worse

By: Bob Henson 8:20 PM GMT on August 12, 2016

A devastating flood event was unfolding over southeast Louisiana on Friday, and conditions may get worse yet, as an extremely slow-moving center of low pressure is dumping colossal amounts of rain on the region. This sprawling, “stacked” low is carrying more water vapor than many tropical cyclones, and its slow motion is leading to persistent rains that could add up to all-time record totals in some places.

Multi-sensor analyses indicate that several areas in southeast Louisiana and southermost Mississippi racked up more than 6” of rain from 7:00 am CDT Thursday, August 11, to 7:00 am Friday (see Figure 1). More than 10” of rain was analyzed just northeast of Baton Rouge, the hardest-hit area thus far. In the 24 hours from 2:00 pm CDT Thursday to 2:00 pm Friday, Baton Rouge Metropolitan Airport recorded a preliminary total of 8.49” of rain. Since records began in 1892, the city’s largest calendar day total is 11.99” (set on April 14, 1967), and the largest two-day calendar total is 14.03” (June 6-7, 2001). Given the very slow motion of the stacked low, these all-time records are conceivably within reach. A cooperative observer in Livingston, LA, reported 17.09” of rain from midnight to 3:00 pm CDT Friday. The state’s official 24-hour record is 22 inches, reported near Hackberry on August 28-29, 1962.


Figure 1. Multi-sensor rainfall analysis for the period from 7:00 am CDT Thursday, August 11, to 7:00 am Friday shows a gyre-like pattern of torrential rains spinning around a low in southern Mississippi. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.


As the low edges westward over the next 24-48 hours, the zone of heaviest rain potential will shift toward west Louisiana and east Texas, but southeast Louisiana will remain under the gun for more downpours at least into early Saturday. The short-range HRRR model produces another 2”-6” of widespread rain over southeast Louisiana through Saturday morning, with localized totals of 8-12” not out of the question.


Figure 2. Enhanced infrared satellite image for the central Gulf Coast reveals the vast scope of the area of low pressure generating torrential rains in southeast Louisiana. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Severe flood threat for Baton Rouge area
Both flash flooding and river flooding threats are looming large for southeast Louisiana, where flash flood warnings were in place on Friday afternoon. Major flooding has already occurred throughout the day Friday, and a flash flood emergency (the most urgent type of flash flood warning) was in effect Friday afternoon for parts of Feliciana, West Feliciana, St. Helena, and East Baton Rouge parishes, which extend roughly from Baton Rouge northward. Water rescues and evacuations were under way in this region, according to the NWS. Even if the rains ease during the weekend, the area faces a major flood threat. The Tickfaw River at Montpelier, LA, hit a record crest of 22.75 feet at 1:30 pm CDT Friday, with several more feet expected this weekend. A number of other rivers across southeast Louisiana are projected to reach all-time crests, including the Amite River, where record levels of flooding can be expected to inundate many homes and roadways on the eastern side of the Baton Rouge metro area for an extended period.


Figure 3. Forecasts issued on Friday morning, August 12, 2016, were calling for an all-time record flood crest of 42.5 feet late Sunday on the Amite River at Denham Springs, just east of Baton Rouge, LA. The forecast keeps waters above the previous record of 41.5 feet (April 8, 1983) for a full 24 hours. These projections could be boosted further in light of the heavy rains persisting in the area on Friday. The last major crest in this region was 36.09 feet on March 13, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.

Tropical cyclone or not? Does it matter?
Although this system does not qualify as a tropical cyclone--its center has remained just inland--the point is moot in terms of impact, as the torrential rains and flooding from this low could end up ranking among some of the more damaging tropical depressions and tropical storms on record. The low’s rainmaking power is a combination of its extremely slow motion and the astoundingly moist air mass feeding into it. The upper air sounding launched from Slidell, LA, at 12Z Friday (7:00 am CDT) showed that the atmosphere was carrying 2.85” of precipitable water (the amount of water in a column of air over a given point). This is the second-highest amount of water measured in any sounding since records began in the New Orleans area in 1948, and just 0.03” below the record of 2.88”. In Jackson, MS, only two other dates have seen more precipitable water than the 2.74” measured on Friday morning, with the record being just 0.02” higher (2.76”). These values may seem puzzlingly low compared to the amounts of rain occurring. This is because showers and thunderstorms can concentrate the amount of moisture present in the atmosphere throughout a region, so they can produce much higher local totals than the precipitable water values would suggest.

The New Orleans Times-Picayune is providing live updates on the situation in southeast Louisiana. Governor John Bel Edwards has declared a state of emergency for the entire state through at least Saturday.

Bob Henson


Figure 4. An inundated boat launch ramp in New Iberia, LA, on Friday, August 12, 2016. Image credit: wunderphotographer kaiju76.




Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 482. Hurricanes101:



I think it actually did happen once. I have to do some research to find it, but I do believe a storm hit Africa
I'd have expected it to be further north, for some reason ...
Pouch 17L Track.


Interstate 55 and the Louisiana/Mississippi state line.
Quoting 499. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Wow NOLALawyer that is impressive pics. of the flooding, that water has be at least 8 feet high. I wonder if there is a river nearby.


That would have to be a definite yes by the movement/current of the water. All indications would point to that being river flooding.
Quoting 498. TheDawnAwakening:

EURO shows another Caribbean Cruiser

There is your semblance of an omega block.

Hmm. So does this thing have a mind of its own or what? Isn't it supposed to be headed west? The suspense is killing me! We need rain! Anyone have any ideas as to whats goin on? TIA!
Quoting 491. Climate175:




Low rider trash :(
Quoting 501. BahaHurican:

I'd have expected it to be further north, for some reason ...


Tropical Storm Delta did hit Morocco but was an extratropical storm at the time
Hello All,

I posted about the Euro showing the significant impact of the flooding in LA in its long range a couple of weeks ago..but it was stated it would just be a summer rain storm..so much for that..and it looks like the rain will be sticking around longer and spreading inland..CNN was just showing I-10 where it was like a raging river which parts had to be shut down..

Crazy..


12z NCEP ensembles..



EATL looks to become interesting next week.
Fish trash or low rider trash... which one is better...
The Spirit of Louisiana is strong, but we have thousands stranded without poiwer and some on rooftops.

All gestures to your diety of worship is appreciated.
LA State Police on the FB page are saying I-55 is open as of an hour ago. Do you know if that pic is accurate? I-10 and 12 are closed because of high water.


Quoting 503. NOLALawyer:



Interstate 55 and the Louisiana/Mississippi state line.
514. Ed22
The Low which is located over New Orleans is shrugging itself back over the Gulf to me.
Quoting 513. ringeaux:

LA State Police on the FB page are saying I-55 is open as of an hour ago. Do you know if that pic is accurate? I-10 and 12 are closed because of high water.





It was on my FB feed. I cannot verify it is accurate.
Quoting 513. ringeaux:

LA State Police on the FB page are saying I-55 is open as of an hour ago. Do you know if that pic is accurate? I-10 and 12 are closed because of high water.





That is Hwy 10 near Clinton La. I-55 is a few miles to the east.
Thoughts with the people of Louisiana. This looks like a multi billion dollar disaster and even worse, deaths are involved.
The circulation seems to be drifting south , out over the Gulf, not good at all -

Southern Mississippi Valley Sector

Quoting 488. NOLALawyer:

Nothing from the NHC = people not paying attention. To many people in the impacted area, this was a complete surprise. Most people are not weather enthusiasts who spend hours a day on weather blogs. Unless there is some kind of real emergency weather situation, i.e. a named storm, people don't really pay any attention.
To be fair, this situation is a result of accretion, which makes it a little more difficult to see the PDS. I agree with your comments about public perception of danger, though. How far ahead does the NWS call for a PDS in a situation like this? How well is the warning disseminated by local agencies? I was reading about a Colombian volcano eruption some years ago that devastated a town and killed many because the information about the potential dangers was not disseminated in a clear and timely fashion.

I also think there shouldn't have been as much surprise as there seems to have been. The people in the neighbourhoods that have never flooded before are one thing. However, when it rains in Louisiana for FOUR days, FIVE days in a row, people who live there should be paying attention. To personalize it, if it rains heavily in the overnight hours here, I change my route to work, [and leave earlier] because I KNOW the road will be flooded at a particular spot on my typical route. And that's just a few hours; judge a few days.

I think collectively we are a lot less alert to dangers than perhaps we ought to be. The responsibility is not just the agency's; it's ours as well.
the last thing Louisiana needs right now is too be hit by a strong TS or hurricane
Thanks. Just check the LA DOTD page and didn't show closed. In fact, they are diverting traffic on to it to get people around the I-12 closure in Denham Springs.


Quoting 516. eyeofbetsy:


That is Hwy 10 near Clinton La. I-55 is a few miles to the east.
The system was well forecasted and on target since Monday.

The unprecedented rainfall and slow overall movement is the only extreme.

ok they have had enough hopefully it moves on now

Quoting 509. ncstorm:

Hello All,

I posted about the Euro showing the significant impact of the flooding in LA in its long range a couple of weeks ago..but it was stated it would just be a summer rain storm..so much for that..and it looks like the rain will be sticking around longer and spreading inland..CNN was just showing I-10 where it was like a raging river which parts had to be shut down..

Crazy..


12z NCEP ensembles..




Well, it IS just a summer storm .... x 5 ....
I'm sure at least a couple of the global models were flirting with this as a possible TC of some kind in the forecast period .... then they dropped it because it wasn't expected to move off land much. I'd have to look back to confirm, but I think even the GFS was showing the rain in the long range, though IIRC it had the rainfall concentrated over FL / AL ....
While I wouldn't bet the house or anything, I'm feeling more confident about forecast pattern changes in the long range this year than I have been in the past ....
Correct. But as you know some of these areas flood every few years and should have been better prepared. I blame some of it on the rapid development and sprawling subdivisions that are popping up all over Livingston parish. I don't think anyone saw 20"plus over 2 days!


Quoting 523. Patrap:

The system was well forecasted and on target since Monday.

The unprecedented rainfall and slow overall movement is the only extreme.


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la
1208 PM CDT Sat Aug 13 2016

Update...

Radar trends have been somewhat encouraging this morning - showing
a slight decrease in rainfall rates. The big problem is the damage
has been done with regards to historic rainfall amounts of over 15
to 20 inches in many locations west of I-55. The combination of
saturated soils, ongoing flash flooding & river/small stream and
backwater flooding means even additional moderate rainfall amounts
could cause additional flooding. It is less likely there will be
flash flooding in the southshore Metro New Orleans area, adjacent
southeast Louisiana coastal areas and the Mississippi Gulf Coast,
so will likely remove these areas from the Flash Flood Watch
around 3 PM. 22/dew point

&&

Aviation...

Primarily MVFR conditions will prevail through the taf forecast
period, although occasional VFR in eastern areas and tempo IFR
around kbtr will be possible through the afternoon due to ceilings
and occasional vsby restrictions due to occasional showers/rain
and a few embedded thunderstorms. Conditions should be gradually
improving tonight into Sunday.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 413 am CDT Sat Aug 13 2016/

Short term...

The main focus continues to be the heavy rainfall across a good
portion of the area. At this time the rainfall has filled in with
at least moderate rainfall once again across the entire area west
of the Interstate 55 corridor. Using 3 hour rainfall rates from
radar the average rate in the heavier storms has been about an
inch per hour. Given the staggering amount of rain many of these
area have already had and given prolonged flooding issues remain
the primary issue and a huge concern.

Models do not show much in the way of good news in the short term
and continue the moderate...and at times heavy...rain through the
morning hours. By the afternoon, as the low that continues to
plague the area slowly moves west, rainfall should begin to taper
off. That said, rain chances remain high throughout the day and
into Sunday morning.

It should be noted here that the river flooding situation is
obviously severe and will continue to pose a significant threat
through the weekend and into next week.

Long term...

Not much time was spent on the long term part of the forecast for
obvious reasons. We should start to transition back into a more
normal summertime pattern as this pesky low moves west. A frontal
boundary stalling north of the area will keep moisture levels on
the high side and allow for showers and thunderstorms to develop
each day through the work week.
Quoting 524. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

ok they have had enough hopefully it moves on now




Looks like it's still spinning right along the Louisiana/Mississippi boarder (where I noted its location earlier this morning). I think the atmosphere cooled because of heavy morning rainfall over south central Louisiana. Once the atmosphere warms back up I have a feeling another round of heavy rainfall will get going. Lets hope not, but that's what I'm thinking.
Euro says two go on a Caribbean cruise.


Will they get a haircut?
Quoting 525. BahaHurican:

Well, it IS just a summer storm .... x 5 ....
I'm sure at least a couple of the global models were flirting with this as a possible TC of some kind in the forecast period .... then they dropped it because it wasn't expected to move off land much. I'd have to look back to confirm, but I think even the GFS was showing the rain in the long range, though IIRC it had the rainfall concentrated over FL / AL ....
While I wouldn't bet the house or anything, I'm feeling more confident about forecast pattern changes in the long range this year than I have been in the past ....


missed the whole point..but you tried it though

I'm sure the residents that are having to pack whatever they can carry in their arms because of water rescues while knowing they are losing their homes wont look at as just a summer rain storm....x5

stay dry..



Quoting 500. HurricaneFan:

Both GFS and ECMWF show some slight development in the MDR next week. I think it's possible we could have Fiona in 5-7 days in the MDR


I believe so also. I've been saying for over a week now sometime between the 17th-24th will give us the next system, the environment will be getting better. Start paying attention when the Euro sniffs something out as it is now.
Quoting 518. RobertWC:

The circulation seems to be drifting south , out over the Gulf, not good at all -

Southern Mississippi Valley Sector


Setting up for a double whammy?
Quoting 531. ncstorm:
missed the whole point..but you tried it though

I'm sure the residents that are having to pack whatever they can carry in their arms because of water rescues while knowing they are losing their homes wont look at as just a summer rain storm....x5

stay dry..
I totally got your point.... x5 is not the same as x1, now is it?
I think we will agree, though. that impacts have been greater than expected [to put it mildly].
Typical Louisiana rain. I remember in the early 80's the forecast was scattered thundershowers (typical day) and the TV weatherman had just finished his 6 o'clock news regurgitation when the bottom dropped out over Prairieville--10 inches plus over the next six hours. That was an upper low doing its thing. Just seems like now we are setting new records every time you turn around.
Quoting 472. elioe:

Interesting... GFS showing a tropical storm forming to the SE of Cape Verde Islands in two days, and approaching Dakar from the southwest in three days. That would be an unprecedented track. GFS ensemble members also show a tropical system forming, but tracks vary. Wondering, why NHC isn't mentioning anything...

And regarding the Louisiana flooding... perhaps NHC could begin issuing advisories on "Land Depressions", like IMD does?

That was not there yesterday.
New Orleans NWS tweeted this a half hour ago.

Major trough of low pressure enters the eastern US states sometime after the 20th, big time temp departures.
Meanwhile, in Jackson County, IL....
Quoting 538. 62901IL:

Meanwhile, in Jackson County, IL....

Are y'all still getting rain up there as well?
Quoting 537. TheDawnAwakening:

Major trough of low pressure enters the eastern US states sometime after the 20th, big time temp departures.



may be snow for the upper part the mid W then?
This is the 7-day QPF map....


...and this is the day 1-3 QPF map.


My analysis: It appears that 10 inches of rain is on the way. And most of it falls within the next 3 days.
Wow.
Quoting 539. BahaHurican:

Are y'all still getting rain up there as well?


Yep. And see post 542.
Unbelievable, flooding over one hundred miles away in LA, and we have sunshine here in SE TX thru a high cirrus shield, 98 degrees with heat index of 108, and I just went ahead and mowed the yard before the rains come in to my area. If the rains don't come, grass gonna burn up. But we have more important things to discuss than our yards right now after what's going on next door in LA.
545. TXCWC
EURO/HWRF/GFS ENSEMBLE/ to a lesser extent GFS all showing just West of Cape Verde in 5 days as the area to watch for possible development. Dominate blocking to the north so potentially 1st long track system of the season to watch for.
Quoting 543. 62901IL:



Yep. And see post 542.
I noticed. I am reminded of parts of the Carolinas from earlier this year ...
No snow yet, but these troughs are a sign that a LA Nina may be enforced this fall.
Quoting 546. BahaHurican:

I noticed. I am reminded of parts of the Carolinas from earlier this year ...


You mean whenever Hurricane Joaquin was over the Bahamas?
Quoting 536. bappit:

New Orleans NWS tweeted this a half hour ago.




They are already under water and have been since early this morning. See my pics of Denham Springs.
Quoting 547. TheDawnAwakening:

No snow yet, but these troughs are a sign that a LA Nina may be enforced this fall.


if we are going too be seeing major trought then the gulf and Caribbean hurricane could vary well be over with
Quoting 550. thetwilightzone:



if we are going too be seeing major trought then the gulf and Caribbean hurricane could vary well be over with


The troughs would have to be very deep for that to occur. Could still easily see development in the Gulf and Caribbean even with a trough in place
The Euro actually has two storms.A weak T.S that looks to sacrifice its self and then a intensifying one headed for the caribbean.I am only interested because it is the Euro showing it as the GFS has had to many false alarms.
NOAA still using 20th century looking maps, behind the times.
Quoting 550. thetwilightzone:



if we are going too be seeing major trought then the gulf and Caribbean hurricane could vary well be over with
Those same troughs if the storm holds together in the Caribbean and the timing is right could be the reason why the storms turns into the GOM or up the East Coast.
Quoting 548. 62901IL:



You mean whenever Hurricane Joaquin was over the Bahamas?
Hope not! They did have several low systems move through one right after the other, and IIRC there was some flooding as a result .... Mid to late June? early to mid July? Long range models kept suggesting one or another of the lows would develop into a STS between NC and Bermuda ....

Quoting 550. thetwilightzone:



if we are going too be seeing major trought then the gulf and Caribbean hurricane could vary well be over with
Not necessarily... a lot depends on the timing; Ike is an example where the high builds back after a trough seemed to be turning it north.... pushing Ike south of west for a time. Also, a lot of later season storms are like Wilma, forming in the SW Caribbean then moving NW towards the GoM [sometimes INto the GoM] before the trough picks them up. Troughing adds variables, but doesn't rule out the Caribbean storms.
compare 2005/2016 same date

Quoting 552. Hurricanes101:



The troughs would have to be very deep for that to occur. Could still easily see development in the Gulf and Caribbean even with a trough in place


According to the NHC with their latest forecast the Caribbean is supposed to be unfavorable for much of the season. Might see storms comming through the NE Caribbean and the Bahamas.
Quoting 560. Bucsboltsfan:



According to the NHC with their latest forecast the Caribbean is supposed to be unfavorable for much of the season. Might see storms comming through the NE Caribbean and the Bahamas.


Um where was this forecast? NOAA does not the increase shear in the Caribbean, but notes that it would prevent the season from being extremely active. That is much different than saying the Caribbean would be unfavorable for much of the season.
Quoting 561. Hurricanes101:



Um where was this forecast?



I don't even think the NHC stated that at all
Quoting 554. RitaEvac:

NOAA still using 20th century looking maps, behind the times.
They've been using those maps since at least 1920 ... seen copies in some of the early wx journals. Seems to be more of a tradition thing.
At least they're not still drawing them by hand ....
Quoting 561. Hurricanes101:



Um where was this forecast?



Look at the blog from thr 11th. They specifically talked about unfavorable winds and dry sinking air in the Caribbean.
Quoting 564. Bucsboltsfan:



Look at the blog from thr 11th. They specifically talked about unfavorable winds and dry sinking air in the Caribbean.


I did, but it says it would prevent the season from being extremely active, not shut down the Caribbean for much of the season. There is a huge difference between the two. They still predicted 12-17 storms, which is still very active.
Quoting 562. James1981cane:



I don't even think the NHC stated that at all


It was NOAAs forecast on this blog from the 11th. I didn't make it up.
Quoting 562. James1981cane:



I don't even think the NHC stated that at all


It was NOAAs forecast on this blog from the 11th. I didn't make it up.
Issued: 3:30 PM EDT Saturday 13 August 2016

Heat warning in effect

Severe thunderstorm watch in effect.


as of 5 pm
Humidex:

105
Quoting 566. Hurricanes101:



I did, but it says it would prevent the season from being extremely active, not shut down the Caribbean for the whole season. There is a huge difference between the two. They still predicted 12-17 storms, which is still very active.


The way I read it is that they are not expecting storms to develop in that area due to unfavorable conditions. If conditions were favorable that numers would be up and the season would be extremely active.
Heat Warning in effect for:
•City of Toronto

Humidex values reaching near 40 are expected.

Very warm and muggy conditions will continue into this evening ahead of a slow-moving cold front approaching from the northwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will linger this evening ahead of the front. Overnight temperatures will finally cool off to somewhat more comfortable levels.

Sunday will see a return to more seasonably warm conditions along with lower humidity.

Heat illnesses include heat stroke, heat exhaustion, heat fainting, heat edema (swelling of hands, feet and ankles), heat rash and heat cramps (muscle cramps).

Drink plenty of liquids especially water before you feel thirsty to decrease your risk of dehydration. Thirst is not a good indicator of dehydration.

Frequently visit neighbours, friends and older family members, especially those who are chronically ill, to make sure that they are cool and hydrated.

Take a break from the heat by spending a few hours in a cool place. It could be a tree-shaded area, swimming facility or an air-conditioned spot such as a public building, shopping mall, grocery store, place of worship or public library.

Never leave people or pets in your care inside a parked vehicle or in direct sunlight.

Prepare meals that don't need to be cooked in your oven.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.
573. Kyon5
SAL is finally retreating in the Atlantic. Should see more TWs take advantage of it as we head into the peak.



Vertical instability is skyrocketing as well.



Quoting 571. Bucsboltsfan:



The way I read it is that they are not expecting storms to develop in that area due to unfavorable conditions. If conditions were favorable that numers would be up and the season would be extremely active.


The numbers did go up compared to their last forecast.

Also extremely active is a term of for interpretation. I see anywhere from 12-17 storms being pretty active and above normal. There is also a big timing issue with all of these systems. The MJO is expected to be here for a good part of September which would likely counteract the sinking air and wind shear comes and goes. They did not specify that the Caribbean was shut down for most of the season. The numbers are not very important anyway, the impacts are.
we have received 41.8mm of rain first round the most in one single event all summer
another 40 will be good second round
then a push out of the humid air after that will be great



heavy to severe storms nw of London Ontario should get me here
576. JRRP7
Michael Ventrice
‏@MJVentrice
Looks like GFS Ens overdoing MDR tropical cyclogenesis probabilities. ECMWF likely a better solution, tho trending +
Quoting 520. BahaHurican:

To be fair, this situation is a result of accretion, which makes it a little more difficult to see the PDS. I agree with your comments about public perception of danger, though. How far ahead does the NWS call for a PDS in a situation like this? How well is the warning disseminated by local agencies? I was reading about a Colombian volcano eruption some years ago that devastated a town and killed many because the information about the potential dangers was not disseminated in a clear and timely fashion.

I also think there shouldn't have been as much surprise as there seems to have been. The people in the neighbourhoods that have never flooded before are one thing. However, when it rains in Louisiana for FOUR days, FIVE days in a row, people who live there should be paying attention. To personalize it, if it rains heavily in the overnight hours here, I change my route to work, [and leave earlier] because I KNOW the road will be flooded at a particular spot on my typical route. And that's just a few hours; judge a few days.

I think collectively we are a lot less alert to dangers than perhaps we ought to be. The responsibility is not just the agency's; it's ours as well.

Well said....People living in that region know to pay close attention to the weather..Specially during the hurricane season...Things change very quickly...
. removed double post
Here is a closer look at one of the Euro Ensemble Member: #DOOM

Severe thunderstorm warning in effect for:
•London - Parkhill - Eastern Middlesex County

At 5:17 p.m. EDT, Environment Canada meteorologists are tracking a severe thunderstorm capable of producing strong wind gusts, up to nickel size hail and heavy rain.


Lightning kills and injures Canadians every year. Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors!

Severe thunderstorm warnings are issued when imminent or occurring thunderstorms are likely to produce or are producing one or more of the following: large hail, damaging winds, torrential rainfall.

The Office of the Fire Marshal and Emergency Management recommends that you take cover immediately if threatening weather approaches.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.

For more information:
http://www.emergencymanagementontario.ca/english/ beprepared/beprepared.html.
Quoting 579. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Here is a closer look at one of the Euro Ensemble Member: #DOOM


Where's CaribBoy?

Starting to get UGLY again. Currently 94.0F/34.44C
Quoting 581. Tornado6042008X:

Where's CaribBoy?

Out doing a RAIN Dance!!!!.
Quoting 582. PedleyCA:


Starting to get UGLY again. Currently 94.0F/34.44C
don't want too scare ya but models for surface temps for your region will soar from here till the end of the month maybe 2 weeks of oppressive heat for ya coming up
In 2000-2001 I serviced and refurbished Revere container liferafts. Its a good investment for a home today!

This is a valise 4 man deploy video.

liferaft deploy video
586. JRRP7
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue
Healthy tropical waves off of Africa next week (+5d on Thursday_) may have 2 [x] to watch on @NHC_Atlantic outlook
Quoting 579. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Here is a closer look at one of the Euro Ensemble Member: #DOOM


Reminds me a little bit of George.
Things might get active next week with two possible storms. Like 2010 did with Danielle and Earl. If conditions allow it we might see multiple storms this two weeks of August and September. Even October might be active. Remember that by this time 2010 only had 3 named storms. We are ahead by 2. Not saying we are going to get 19 storms but 16 storms are still possible. I am predicting 3-4 more storms in August.
Thousands of homes are flooded now in the Layfaette and surrounding areas.

Over 3500 911 calls there the last 24 hrs.

Via Twc interview
The Euro really likes "Gaston" Kills off Fiona and has it as the sacrificial storm.
592. JRRP7
Quoting 579. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Here is a closer look at one of the Euro Ensemble Member: #DOOM



GFS ensemble 3

there is a good storm coming now maybe worst then first round at 2 pm
dark clouds advancing from west towards me with low level lake clouds racing from southeast towards nw feeding them under it this next round shall be the best round
Quoting 591. washingtonian115:

The Euro really likes "Gaston" Kills off Fiona and has it as the sacrificial storm.
It seems Fiona always meets its death quick, AKA 2010.
we gonna get hammered here soon

GFS seems to spin up the Monday wave into a TD/weak TS and tracks it northwestwards towards Cape Verde before dissipating. ECMWF shows a similar scenario. I think it is possible we could see the yellow circle soon since this is only 48-72 hours away.
Severe thunderstorm warning in effect for:
Brantford - County of Brant
Woodstock - Tillsonburg - Oxford County
Guelph - Erin - Southern Wellington County
Kitchener - Cambridge - Region of Waterloo
Mount Forest - Arthur - Northern Wellington County

There is a risk of localized flash flooding.

At 5:40 PM, radar shows thunderstorms with torrential downpours moving eastward across portions of the regions. There is also the threat for damaging winds gusts or an isolated tornado

Heavy downpours are likely to cause flash floods and water pooling on roads. Lightning kills and injures Canadians every year. Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors!

Severe thunderstorm warnings are issued when imminent or occurring thunderstorms are likely to produce or are producing one or more of the following: large hail, damaging winds, torrential rainfall.

The Office of the Fire Marshal and Emergency Management recommends that you take cover immediately if threatening weather approaches.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.

For more information:
http://www.emergencymanagementontario.ca/english/ beprepared/beprepared.html.

This is an ongoing event. We're still in response mode," Gov. John Bel Edwards said, urging residents to heed warnings to evacuate and not rely on their past experiences because the state has never seen flooding like this before.

Beginning Friday, 6 to 10 inches of rain fell on parts of Louisiana and an additional 4 to 6 inches was possible Saturday afternoon, National Weather forecaster Donald Jones said.

Mississippi and Alabama were also struggling with heavy rainfall."Snakes were everywhere," Shanita Angrum of Baker

In Baker, just north of Baton Rouge, residents said they had to be rescued by boats or wade though waist-deep, snake-infested water to reach dry ground. Dozens of them awoke Saturday morning on cots at a makeshift Red Cross shelter only a few blocks from their flooded homes and cars.

John Mitchell, 23, said he swam to safety with his pit bull after police officers in a boat picked up his 20-year-old girlfriend, Haybriel Thomas; her 1 year-old daughter, Kaylee; and Mitchell's father.

"This is the worst it's been, ever," Mitchell said of the flooding. "We tried to wait it out, but we had to get out."

Mitchell fears he lost their trailer home and his car, which was flooded up to the seats. A bag of clothes was all he had time to save as the water levels rapidly rose.

"People are keeping it together better than I thought they would," he said of the roughly 60 people who stayed at the Red Cross shelter.

Shanita Angrum, 32, said she called 911 on Friday morning when she realized flood waters had trapped her family in their home. A police officer carried her 6-year-old daughter, Khoie, on his back while she and her husband waded behind them for what "felt like forever."

"Snakes were everywhere," she said. "The whole time I was just praying for God to make sure me and my family were OK."

Angrum said her family probably lost most of their possessions, including two cars and the new school clothes she purchased for her daughter.

"We got to start all over," she said.

The storm system was drifting slowly west from southeast Louisiana to an area along the central Gulf coast.

Edwards declared a state of emergency Friday. The flooding has forced Edwards and his family out of the Governor's Mansion, where chest-high water had filled the basement and electricity to the building had to be cut off.

"That's never happened before," he said.

The governor and his family have been relocated to a state police facility in the Baton Rouge area, and his home in the hard-hit area of Tangipahoa Parish hasn't taken any water.

One man died Friday after slipping into a flooded ditch near the city of Zachary, said East Baton Rouge Parish Sheriff's spokesman Casey Rayborn Hicks, who identified the victim as 68-year-old William Mayfield.

A second victim was found in St. Helena Parish, where crews pulled a body from a submerged pickup on Louisiana Highway 10.

State Sen. Bodi White, who represents some of the hardest-hit areas in the suburbs around Baton Rouge, said water has reached levels that were never recorded during 1983's record flood.

Southeast Louisiana storm updates: flooding, dangerous conditions

Southeast Louisiana storm updates: flooding, dangerous conditions

Three days of rain overcomes roads, houses

"This is going to be water we've never seen," he said Saturday. "They were getting people off roofs in St. Helena Parish."

Numerous rivers in southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi were overflowing. The governor said some were expected to crest more than 4 feet above previous records and officials were not sure just how widespread the damage would be.

In a 24-hour period, Baton Rouge reported as much as 11.34 inches of rain compared with 2.34 inches at New Orleans' international airport in Kenner. A weather service meteorologist said one weather observer reported 17.09 inches of rainfall in Livingston.

The Comite River near Baton Rouge and Amite River near Denham Springs, both in Louisiana, were predicted to set record crests over the weekend.

The Tickfaw River, just south of the Mississippi state line in Liverpool, Louisiana, was already at the highest level ever recorded.

In southwest Mississippi, Leroy Hansford, his wife and stepson were among those rescued near Gloster.

Hansford, 62, said waters from Beaver Creek, which is normally more than 400 feet away from his house, rose quickly overnight. He said another stepson who lives nearby alerted him.

"We woke up and the water kept on coming," Hansford said. "It came up to my waist." His wife told Hansford that it's the highest she's seen the creek in the 48 years she's lived there.

In Crosby, Mississippi, more than 50 people flooded out of a neighborhood will be housed at a shelter in Natchez.

Wilkinson County Chancery Clerk Thomas Tolliver said an apartment complex and surrounding houses in the town were flooded after 10 inches of rain fell. Authorities said they expect to shelter displaced Crosby residents at least until Monday.

College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
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FLASH FLOOD WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 527 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING BUFFALO NY - KBUF 625 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 525 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING DENVER CO - KBOU 422 PM MDT SAT AUG 13 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING ALBANY NY - KALY 622 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING ALBANY NY - KALY 616 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING STATE COLLEGE PA - KCTP 606 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING BINGHAMTON NY - KBGM 556 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING GOODLAND KS - KGLD 349 PM MDT SAT AUG 13 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING ALBUQUERQUE NM - KABQ 348 PM MDT SAT AUG 13 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TAUNTON MA - KBOX 546 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING GOODLAND KS - KGLD 342 PM MDT SAT AUG 13 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING GOODLAND KS - KGLD 341 PM MDT SAT AUG 13 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING BINGHAMTON NY - KBGM 539 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MELBOURNE FL - KMLB 533 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING BINGHAMTON NY - KBGM 531 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING ALBANY NY - KALY 528 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING BUFFALO NY - KBUF 517 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MELBOURNE FL - KMLB 515 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSONVILLE FL - KJAX 515 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING GRAY ME - KGYX 514 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING BINGHAMTON NY - KBGM 514 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING GOODLAND KS - KGLD 310 PM MDT SAT AUG 13 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING <>a href="http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KGLD/1608132109.w uus53.html" onclick="if(!checkUrl(this.href)) return false;" rel="nofollow" target="_


as you can see the rain is needed everything has been burned up from the heat
Quoting 598. Patrap:


The upper low is lifting out rather quick. I wonder if that will allow the wave in the Western Caribbean to develop some..

http://www.nola.com/weather/index.ssf/2016/08/i-12_ closed_flooded_62_miles_baton_rouge_covington.html
I think there's a good chance we see a yellow circle at 8PM for the wave coming off Africa now. There's some fairly strong shear off the coast of Africa right now which will be a hindrance, but no SAL and SSTs are warm enough. Maybe a 10%/30% type deal... especially if Stewart is on the desk ;)

Would probably be of the brief variety though, if it develops, especially if it starts to move more NW as some models suggest.
The Euro,CMC and GFS all show a weak T.S south of the cape verde islands before dying off.
It just seems like every presidential year us New Orleanians has have to evacuate. Besides 2005, 2004 we had to evacuate for Ivan. Then 2008 we had Gustav, Then there was pesky Isaac in 2012,some left some stayed. What will happen this year in 2016 for us? All in all everybody should be prepared just in case.
I think the real hurricane season will begin in 2 weeks, washi.
Quoting 618. BaltimoreBrian:

I think the real hurricane season will begin in 2 weeks, washi.
The Euro is excited about the wave that is in behind the one that is currently being watched.
The thing about the Euro Run is that the wave after the one coming off on Monday, was actually getting stronger while it was heading westward, unlike before in which storms would be getting weaker.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
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Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING ALBANY NY - KALY 655 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 553 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 
Last night the low at Dulles Airport was 78, tying their record for the warmest daily low of all time.
Looks like a small center is trying to form in the Gulf due south of Galveston.
Tornado warning in effect for:
•Caledon

At 6:44 p.m. EDT, Environment Canada meteorologists are tracking a severe thunderstorm that is possibly producing a tornado. Damaging winds, large hail and locally intense rainfall are also possible.


This is a dangerous and potentially life-threatening situation. Take cover immediately, if threatening weather approaches. If you hear a roaring sound or see a funnel cloud, swirling debris near the ground, flying debris, or any threatening weather approaching, take shelter immediately.

Go indoors to a room on the lowest floor, away from outside walls and windows, such as a basement, bathroom, stairwell or interior closet. Leave mobile homes, vehicles, tents, trailers and other temporary or free-standing shelter, and move to a strong building if you can. As a last resort, lie in a low spot and protect your head from flying debris.

Lightning kills and injures Canadians every year. Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors!

Tornado warnings are issued when imminent or occurring thunderstorms are likely to produce or are producing tornadoes.

The Office of the Fire Marshal and Emergency Management recommends that you take cover immediately if threatening weather approaches.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.

For more information:
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Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 9h9 hours ago
CanSIPS now holding onto more of an El Nino atmospheric signature thru Sept. There goes our active Hurricane Season.
Quoting 626. BaltimoreBrian:

They're coming to get you pureet1948




Yeah i am tracking these cells north east of houston
This is the one I believe will become a named storm....1007 mb low

7:08 PM EDT Saturday 13 August 2016
Severe thunderstorm warning in effect for:
•City of Hamilton

At 6:50 PM, radar shows thunderstorms with torrential downpours moving eastward across portions of the regions. There is also the threat for damaging winds gusts or a tornado.

Heavy downpours are likely to cause flash floods and water pooling on roads. Lightning kills and injures Canadians every year. Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors!

Severe thunderstorm warnings are issued when imminent or occurring thunderstorms are likely to produce or are producing one or more of the following: large hail, damaging winds, torrential rainfall.

The Office of the Fire Marshal and Emergency Management recommends that you take cover immediately if threatening weather approaches.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.

For more information:
http://www.emergencymanagementontario.ca/english/ beprepared/beprepared.html.
That didn't take long...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 1h
12Z ECMWF shading slightly more aggressive with MDR tropical cyclone. Up to 40-50%. Still a lot going against it.
Quoting 628. Gearsts:

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 9h9 hours ago
CanSIPS now holding onto more of an El Nino atmospheric signature thru Sept. There goes our active Hurricane Season.
I doubt that...NOAA adjusted there numbers upwards, and for good reason..Things are already changing out in the Atlantic Basin.
Quoting 633. GeoffreyWPB:

That didn't take long...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven
They know the plan. I'm not surprised.
Quoting 636. Climate175:

They know the plan. I'm not surprised.

Cape Verde could be dealing with a TS in a few days. They should have mentioned it. Probably will be mentioned and maybe even invested tomorrow
Quoting 628. Gearsts:

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 9h9 hours ago
CanSIPS now holding onto more of an El Nino atmospheric signature thru Sept. There goes our active Hurricane Season.


Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 1h
12Z ECMWF shading slightly more aggressive with MDR tropical cyclone. Up to 40-50%. Still a lot going against it.

So you're trying to tell people the season will not be active and the season will be active at the same time? Interesting.
Quoting 628. Gearsts:

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 9h9 hours ago
CanSIPS now holding onto more of an El Nino atmospheric signature thru Sept. There goes our active Hurricane Season.


agreed 100% noaa news hurricane forecast is on drugs
keep watch east Texas its a bubbling out their





last year at this time it was a EL Nino we had named storms out there this year with no EL Nino we dont have any named storms and we are on AUG 13th all ready and by the end of this week we will be at AUG 19th so its really not looking good out there model runs may be on drugs has well
Quoting 641. thetwilightzone:

last year at this time it was a EL Nino we had named storms out there this year with no EL Nino we dont have any named storms and we are on AUG 13th all ready and by the end of this week we will be at AUG 19th so its really not looking good out there model runs may be on drugs has well

We could be dealing with two systems within the next week, and there can't be a named storm active on every single day. This date in 2015 we did NOT have any storms active.
https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=ht tps%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FNWSLMRFC%2Fposts%2F 1145726955498440&width=500

Some areas estimated to have experienced a 0.1% rainfall over 2-days in southern Louisiana.
644. JRRP7
Quoting 635. hydrus:

I doubt that...NOAA adjusted there numbers upwards, and for good reason..Things are already changing out in the Atlantic Basin.

may be looking the CFS
its dark up here in NE houston. round 1 getting ready to start
Quoting 630. James1981cane:



Yeah i am tracking these cells north east of houston
Quoting 641. thetwilightzone:

last year at this time it was a EL Nino we had named storms out there this year with no EL Nino we dont have any named storms and we are on AUG 13th all ready and by the end of this week we will be at AUG 19th so its really not looking good out there model runs may be on drugs has well


taz maybe u are but anyway normally don't see anything towards end of aug like 28 29

but I am going with anytime after the start of the full moon I got a hunch and I don't do you know or drink either but I do love my coffee and a smoke every once in awhile
I still don't understand why this season will still be below average to average. Everything seems in place for at least an average season. 18z GFS has a TS moving off africa moving due NNW after emerging... SMH
Quoting 639. thetwilightzone:



agreed 100% noaa news hurricane forecast is on drugs


so is all of them then. Everyone one of them are forecasting an above average season. So I guess they are all wrong?
Quoting 628. Gearsts:

Michael Ventrice %u200F@MJVentrice 9h9 hours ago
CanSIPS now holding onto more of an El Nino atmospheric signature thru Sept. There goes our active Hurricane Season.


It is One models outlook not putting any trust into it, that's the same model that predicted a record monster La Nina during the peak in the last couple months. Even if there are El Nino conditions rest of the year we will end up over 12 storms for sure, we still had 11 storms in a very strong El Nino last year.
Quoting 641. thetwilightzone:

last year at this time it was a EL Nino we had named storms out there this year with no EL Nino we dont have any named storms and we are on AUG 13th all ready and by the end of this week we will be at AUG 19th so its really not looking good out there model runs may be on drugs has well


you seem to forget that we have already had FIVE named storms. Not ZERO or ONE or even TWO, but FIVE. The 6th storm on average forms on September 8th, which is almost 1 full month from now. Chances of us going that long without another named storm is basically zero.

Also, we had nothing in the Atlantic at this time last year. Claudette formed in July, Danny not until August 18th, so the cupboard was bare last year on August 13th as well, but with only 3 named storms and a much less favorable Atlantic.
The 18z GFS solution has a weaker version of Fred from last year with a similar track.
Quoting 635. hydrus:

I doubt that...NOAA adjusted there numbers upwards, and for good reason..Things are already changing out in the Atlantic Basin.


Agreed
Quoting 637. HurricaneFan:


Cape Verde could be dealing with a TS in a few days. They should have mentioned it. Probably will be mentioned and maybe even invested tomorrow
I know, but they will act accordingly very soon, its all with the proper timing.
Quoting 639. thetwilightzone:



agreed 100% noaa news hurricane forecast is on drugs
Really.?..Do you mean the forecast itself.? or that the staff is using...Why dont you try using some data to explain what your agreeing on...I,m very interested with your input due to your lengthy membership.
I guess it's Houston's time to get in on the action.
Storms closing in on the city.
Quoting 610. hydrus:

The upper low is lifting out rather quick. I wonder if that will allow the wave in the Western Caribbean to develop some..




We have had a few days to dry out here in FL but that ULL is dragging the moisture up from that wave in the Caribbean. Currently here in Miami I'm starting to get some thunder with strong storms showing up on the radar to our SE. Looks like it's gonna be a stormy night here for us.
Quoting 649. WeatherkidJoe2323:



It is One models outlook not putting any trust into it, that's the same model that predicted a record monster La Nina during the peak in the last couple months. Even if there are El Nino conditions rest of year we will end up over 12 storms for sure, we still had 11 storms in a very strong El Nino last year.
Yep...Like the fading Nino has shut down things completely...We have had 5 named systems.
Quoting 656. CW7859:



We have had a few days to dry out here in FL but that ULL is dragging the moisture up from that wave in the Caribbean. Currently here in Miami I'm starting to get some thunder with strong storms showing up on the radar to our SE. Looks like it's gonna be a stormy night here for us.
Indeed...That is very moist air coming your way.
Quoting 654. hydrus:

Really.?..Do you mean the forecast itself.? or that the staff is using...Why dont you try using some data to explain what your agreeing on...I,m very interested with your input due to your lengthy membership.
its reverse psychology if he says its over then it will begin lack of patience
12z NAVGEM.
Quoting 638. Sfloridacat5:



Michael Ventrice %u200F@MJVentrice 1h
12Z ECMWF shading slightly more aggressive with MDR tropical cyclone. Up to 40-50%. Still a lot going against it.

So you're trying to tell people the season will not be active and the season will be active at the same time? Interesting.

I think the problem is we have so many computer models that are showing different solutions it's throwing the experts off and they're not sure which one to go with. I think the consensus would be the best bet to go with at this current time and lean more towards climo.
The 7 percent law in action =

More than 24 inches of rain have fallen in Livingston, Louisiana, according to observations relayed to the National Weather Service,

Link
Quoting 654. hydrus:

Really.?..Do you mean the forecast itself.? or that the staff is using...Why dont you try using some data to explain what your agreeing on...I,m very interested with your input due to your lengthy membership.


These tweets have been interesting. In just a few days we went from looks like the Atlantic is shut down for 2 weeks to we may have a few systems to watch in the Tropical Atlantic. The exact same thing happened in July. Forecasts were not showing hardly anything and it was reported we were going to be quiet, the along came 97L/Earl.
Quoting 655. Sfloridacat5:

I guess it's Houston's time to get in on the action.
Storms closing in on the city.

slow moving strong thunderstorms,will produce 4-6 inches of rain for Houston.Turn around dont drown.
Woo hoo! We were just put under a burn ban in Brazoria County 3 days ago. I'm ready! Just got a little bit but im praying for more. Need it bad!


Quoting 655. Sfloridacat5:

I guess it's Houston's time to get in on the action.
Storms closing in on the city.

Quoting 614. Patrap:








Please tell me that thing is not starting to spin in the gulf. My niece was just rescued and brought down here from a home they just signed the papers on 3 weeks ago.
ENSO Wrap-Up

Next issue set to come out on Aug. 16.
You didn't post the whole thing
Quoting 643. ScottLincoln:

https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=ht tps%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FNWSLMRFC%2Fposts%2F 1145726955498440&width=500

Some areas estimated to have experienced a 0.1% rainfall over 2-days in southern Louisiana.


SL -
Hell comes to breakfast.

It one sense they are lucky, if this was West Virginia , the mind reels at the body count.
Quoting 668. Climate175:

Sal taking a hike.
Heavy rain moving into Houston now....
I sure hope Louisiana does not get any more tropical activity this season. Saturation will be problematic.
Quoting 664. Hurricanes101:



These tweets have been interesting. In just a few days we went from looks like the Atlantic is shut down for 2 weeks to we may have a few systems to watch in the Tropical Atlantic. The exact same thing happened in July. Forecasts were not showing hardly anything and it was reported we were going to be quiet, the along came 97L/Earl.
MJO will be coming back in a few weeks.
Quoting 674. Grothar:



Wow...60%...NHC must be waiting until the wave fully exits the coast
Quoting 676. unknowncomic:

MJO will be coming back in a few weeks.



dont be too sure about that that forecast has been wrong and by then we will be in SEP
well bye all i be in lurk mode and wont be coming back on un less some in pops up or we start tracking winter storms that is may you next see me on here


this season is boring me



so i be back in the off season good luck has the season is dead and noaa forecast is on drugs and so are the model runs so this will end up being a vary quit season dos not matter if we are at the peak or not so dont even get me going on that


see you guys in OCT
Also, with so much moisture in the air, the heat of the day is trapped by clouds and moisture, so low temperatures in the New York City to Richmond, Virginia, corridor will only fall to around 80 degrees.

These conditions are particularly dangerous to those who are most vulnerable, such as the sick or elderly, especially if they are without air conditioning.


Dangerous Heat, Humidity Across Most of the Northeast

The 7 percent law in action.

I would not be shocked if a few of these locations had dew points at or near record territory as of the 4 pm hour.

Link
Quoting 680. thetwilightzone:

well bye all i be in lurk mode and wont be coming back on un less some in pops up or we start tracking winter storms that is may you next see me on here


this season is boring me



so i be back in the off season good luck has the season is dead and noaa forecast is on drugs and so are the model runs so this will end up being a vary quit season dos not matter if we are at the peak or not so dont even get me going on that


see you guys in OCT
I think you will be back real soon.
684. beell
Quoting 673. kallenjrtx:

Heavy rain moving into Houston now....



East Harris County
3" of tropical rain in 30 min.
(ADDED: before it eased up to light rain)
Quoting 680. thetwilightzone:

well bye all i be in lurk mode and wont be coming back on un less some in pops up or we start tracking winter storms that is may you next see me on here


this season is boring me



so i be back in the off season good luck has the season is dead and noaa forecast is on drugs and so are the model runs so this will end up being a vary quit season dos not matter if we are at the peak or not so dont even get me going on that


see you guys in OCT

Promise?
I hope Ian is worth tracking.Nature can screw up on all the other storms.

Ian Livingston %u200F@islivingston 4h
101 for the high in DC today, second record tie in a row.
Quoting 686. washingtonian115:

I hope Ian is worth tracking.Nature can screw up on all the other storms.


Gaston and Ian are the two names I was eyeing up. If the models are right, Gaston could be one worth tracking
688. xcool
I been have a weird feeling about this years for Louisiana
Quoting 680. thetwilightzone:

well bye all i be in lurk mode and wont be coming back on un less some in pops up or we start tracking winter storms that is may you next see me on here


this season is boring me



so i be back in the off season good luck has the season is dead and noaa forecast is on drugs and so are the model runs so this will end up being a vary quit season dos not matter if we are at the peak or not so dont even get me going on that


see you guys in OCT


I mentioned the other day that you should set up a winter blog and we can come over and say hi from time to time. You can talk about the winter in the Southern Hemisphere
Quoting 680. thetwilightzone:

well bye all i be in lurk mode and wont be coming back on un less some in pops up or we start tracking winter storms that is may you next see me on here


this season is boring me



so i be back in the off season good luck has the season is dead and noaa forecast is on drugs and so are the model runs so this will end up being a vary quit season dos not matter if we are at the peak or not so dont even get me going on that


see you guys in OCT

This is the year when things ramp up. We will see more than one system in the GOM. And if one gets in the gulf, look out. So, you aren't right in this one in my view. Sorry Tzone!
So now this "thing" is attacking Texas. Folks we have to kill it, and I'm not taking nuclear weapons off the table.
Quoting 686. washingtonian115:

I hope Ian is worth tracking.Nature can screw up on all the other storms.

Ian Livingston %u200F@islivingston 4h
101 for the high in DC today, second record tie in a row.
we hit 106 with heat index today now it feels like 90 with heat index rain is done I think looks like todays 44.9 mm is it best one day rain the entire summer today as per my pws anyway
695. Tcwx2
Really? I respect you as an elder member but making comments like this really makes me lose a lot of respect for you. The models are on drugs? NOAA is on drugs? Wow that seems legit. Why don't you send them a message and tell them that and see how seriously they take you.
Quoting 680. thetwilightzone:

well bye all i be in lurk mode and wont be coming back on un less some in pops up or we start tracking winter storms that is may you next see me on here


this season is boring me



so i be back in the off season good luck has the season is dead and noaa forecast is on drugs and so are the model runs so this will end up being a vary quit season dos not matter if we are at the peak or not so dont even get me going on that


see you guys in OCT
F5 keys need to be ready and set once again come next week.
WV Loop shows bad news for SE Tex/SE La.Link
Heavy rain just made it to me here south of Houston. Here is hoping for about 5 inches to get the burn ban lifted!
Maybe it's the colors that make the shear maps look so weird.
Quoting 700. Chicklit:

Maybe it's the colors that make the shear maps look so weird.

Like traffic signals. Whose driving?
Quoting 699. KodiakMan4x4:

Heavy rain just made it to me here south of Houston. Here is hoping for about 5 inches to get the burn ban lifted!

It seems like Texas is always in a drought or it's flooding.
I'm pretty sure nobody in Houston area is complaining about the rain moving in....it's been so hot and dry and I know my lawn and fruit trees are happy to see it coming down. Just as long as it doesn't get too heavy and flood. Maybe snail storm will move out of Louisiana altogether and give us some good rain and fizzle out.
Quoting 700. Chicklit:

Maybe it's the colors that make the shear maps look so weird.


I go by
green a go for storms
yellow caution could be storms
red a stop no storms likely
Quoting 703. kallenjrtx:

I'm pretty sure nobody in Houston area is complaining about the rain moving in....it's been so hot and dry and I know my lawn and fruit trees are happy to see it coming down. Just as long as it doesn't get too heavy and flood. Maybe snail storm will move out of Louisiana altogether and give us some good rain and fizzle out.

dissipation is more than likely
The 7 percent law -

Even as the severe weather eased in the eastern part of the region, rivers further west in Louisiana were spilling over, and flooding could worsen over the next 24 to 36 hours, Edwards said.

He described the floods as more severe than those that struck the state in March, when at least four were killed and thousands of homes were damaged in Louisiana and Mississippi.

"This is unprecedented," Edwards said, advising residents to heed warnings. "Please don't rely on your experiences in the past."


Link
wow rain continues in LA overnight but should move out Sunday mid day
Weekend is not a total washout. There's time to help your neighbor if you're not flooded yourself.
Is this to become Fiona?
Northeast lighting up with storms this evening. Feels very tropical outside.
Quoting 704. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


I go by
green a go for storms
yellow caution could be storms
red a stop no storms likely
What about Anticyclones?
Yeah Texas been having some crazy extremes last couple years especially....goes from most of state in extreme drought then 2 months of extreme rains floods eastern half of state. We got 7 days of good heavy rain a few weeks ago to baking in 100+ heat and bone dry conditions to heavy rain again. Who knows what's next??🤔

Quoting 713. unknowncomic:

What about Anticyclones?
need a storm already for any benefit from those
Im getting poured on im in baytown tracking this storm
Man I guess since the atmosphere has not been worked over in a while we are really getting it here in Pearland, Texas. Lightning is ridiculous with some extremely loud crashes. Pouring rain. I am surprised we have only had 1 flicker of the lights so far! Welcomed rain!
Flooding in Louisiana is way worse and even eclipses the 1983 benchmark flood.

Many are spending a night in distress and many await rescue from isolated inundated areas.

The resources are stretch thin in many areas and night hampers and stops many efforts till first navigable light.


719. IDTH
Quoting 559. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

compare 2005/2016 same date



Potential is scary.
Quoting 579. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Here is a closer look at one of the Euro Ensemble Member: #DOOM




OMG yes!!
Quoting 720. CaribBoy:



OMG yes!!
There's one in every crowd. No worries.
Sugar land getting good soaking rain ...some good lightning.
Loving it! Gma is scared of the lightining though. Asked me to go get gas cans off the front porch. That was not pleasant with the crazy lightning lol

Quoting 703. kallenjrtx:

I'm pretty sure nobody in Houston area is complaining about the rain moving in....it's been so hot and dry and I know my lawn and fruit trees are happy to see it coming down. Just as long as it doesn't get too heavy and flood. Maybe snail storm will move out of Louisiana altogether and give us some good rain and fizzle out.

Quoting 583. PedleyCA:


Out doing a RAIN Dance!!!!.


Last few days had typical august weather ... very little SAL, not much wind, passing showers.

August 2015 had a lot more SAL, and not much beautiful CBs to watch.
In central NYS, after several days of tropical like weather, are experiencing some of the hardest storms with lightening that we have had in years. Breath taking to watch. Absolutely can't compare to what those poor souls in the deep south are experiencing tho. God Bless those that are in such dire straits tonight.

Thanks, Bob
The perfect storm to track:

A storm that develops near Africa past the Cape Verde Islands, moves slowly to the west and the forecast models all develop it, but different in track. There is no clear solution as to where the system goes or what intensity it will be. The system does not disappoint though as it is well organized and does not struggle, but continues westward under high pressure. It reaches the NE Islands as a strong TS and gives CaribBoy that rain he so wants. Afterwards the system slowly moves north of the Greater Antilles and moves westward, intensifying into a textbook CAT 5 with a stadium effect eye. After moving erratically and still fooling the models on track, the system slowly turns north and goes out to sea without any serious impacts to anyone.
I like our chances of Fiona this week as the strong wave moves off Africa. It would likely succumb to dry air and cooler waters on its way northwest across Cape Verde, but it'd snag a name off the list and be our first East Atlantic system of 2016. If the Euro is right, we also have to watch for a more long-lived cyclone later this week, but that has less consensus at the moment.

It's August. Storms will pop up regardless of sinking air across the Atlantic.
Rain and thunder moving onshore SFL tonite.

719. IDTH

Potential is scary.

It's all cocked, and loaded.
Quoting 686. washingtonian115:

I hope Ian is worth tracking.Nature can screw up on all the other storms.

Ian Livingston %u200F@islivingston 4h
101 for the high in DC today, second record tie in a row.
TBH Washi I am tired of the I storms taking all the crowd and the credit. Look at your second favorite name on the list this year. Might not disssapoint you. I was waiting for Tobias but I doubt we will reach it so Gaston, Fiona and Julia are for me this year.
Quoting 708. Chicklit:

Is this to become Fiona?


Hopefully she is a beauty worth tracking, but I believe she will be the sacrifice lamb if it develop, She wil probably help the upcoming wave to intensify by getting all the SAL out of the way.
Has anyone heard the new NOAA voice? Sounds funny if you ask me...I like Tom better. What are your thoughts?
Gaston sounds like the bad boy this year.
Quoting 731. allancalderini:

TBH Washi I am tired of the I storms taking all the crowd and the credit. Look at your second favorite name on the list this year. Might not disssapoint you. I was waiting for Tobias but I doubt we will reach it so Gaston, Fiona and Julia are for me this year.
Hopefully she is a beauty worth tracking, but I believe she will be the sacrifice lamb if it develop, She wil probably help the upcoming wave to intensify by getting all the SAL out of the way.


I think that is the consensus around here that this 1st system will develop, but will be weaker while the one behind it will be the one to really watch. That being said, the SAL is not all bad right now, but if this does go NW then I can see dry air being an issue with it
Quoting 733. unknowncomic:

Gaston sounds like the bad boy this year.
Yep, got that type of tough motorcyclist man feel to it.
Hurricane Edouard of 1996 was as close to a perfect tracking storm as you would like to get

Emerging TW must get past the red.
LinkLook at this water rescue in the Baton Rouge, La area: http://www.wafb.com/story/32753230/dramatic-video- shows-woman-dog-being-rescued-from-sinking-car
Best chance yet this year for TC formation right off the African coast.
Quoting 732. Stormchaser121:

Has anyone heard the new NOAA voice? Sounds funny if you ask me...I like Tom better. What are your thoughts?


Do they change them for different regions? The samples of Tom and Paul sound almost like the one I had...but I feel like a cross between the two would yield the voice I've listened to.
Quoting 740. Southernyat:

LinkLook at this water rescue in the Baton Rouge, La area: http://www.wafb.com/story/32753230/dramatic-video- shows-woman-dog-being-rescued-from-sinking-car
That is very dramatic. Bless those rescuers for saving the woman and the dog.
Here's some data regarding 2010's Tropical Storm Gaston: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/al09/al092010 .discus.003.shtml?

"Tropical Storm GASTON...

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0300Z 13.4N 37.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 13.5N 38.5W 40 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 13.7N 39.7W 45 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 13.8N 40.8W 50 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 14.0N 42.1W 55 KT
72HR VT 05/0000Z 14.5N 45.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 06/0000Z 15.0N 49.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 07/0000Z 16.0N 54.5W 85 KT"
Heroes. The guy who jumped on the car is a boss. You could see the adrenalin kick in when he started tearing that roof apart. Real life superheroes. Love it.

Quoting 740. Southernyat:

LinkLook at this water rescue in the Baton Rouge, La area: http://www.wafb.com/story/32753230/dramatic-video- shows-woman-dog-being-rescued-from-sinking-car
Quoting 747. HaoleboySurfEC:

Heroes. The guy who jumped on the car is a boss. You could see the adrenalin kick in when he started tearing that roof apart. Real life superheroes. Love it.


he had no other choice do or die
Quoting 743. AldreteMichael:



If this is the storm I'm thinking of, back in 2010, I remember this storm being forecast at one point to become a category 3 storm, but didn't make it above a 40 MPH tropical storm due to losing it's battle with dry air.


Actually, I think either now or at one point the NHC stated that they weren't sure if it even got strong enough to be named, but they did anyways.
Quoting 695. Tcwx2:

Really? I respect you as an elder member but making comments like this really makes me lose a lot of respect for you. The models are on drugs? NOAA is on drugs? Wow that seems legit. Why don't you send them a message and tell them that and see how seriously they take you.


You don't know Taz well enough lol. He's like this. This is his personality. If you want to make him mad, correct his spelling/grammar. He'll get roundly upset. And then he will repot you.

;)
From 2010 Gaston's Wikipedia

In the Tropical Cyclone Report, the NHC noted that Gaston may not have attained tropical storm status, as ASCAT scatterometer data only supported an intensity around 35 mph (55 km/h). The tropical storm force winds for Gaston's peak were derived mainly from Dvorak intensity estimates.
Quoting 747. HaoleboySurfEC:

Heroes. The guy who jumped on the car is a boss. You could see the adrenalin kick in when he started tearing that roof apart. Real life superheroes. Love it.




His name is David Phung.
Quoting 744. Astrometeor:



Do they change them for different regions? The samples of Tom and Paul sound almost like the one I had...but I feel like a cross between the two would yield the voice I've listened to.

Thats what I was thinking. Sounds like a mixture of paul and Tom. They changed it nationwide recently. The new voices name is in fact Paul. Maybe it's a upgraded version of the first Paul. I'm not sure. But I'm not used to it yet. Ive listen to Tom for the past 15 years. The new voice also mispronounces words. Should improve as time goes by.
Quoting 751. JrWeathermanFL:

From 2010 Gaston's Wikipedia

In the Tropical Cyclone Report, the NHC noted that Gaston may not have attained tropical storm status, as ASCAT scatterometer data only supported an intensity around 35 mph (55 km/h). The tropical storm force winds for Gaston's peak were derived mainly from Dvorak intensity estimates.
Please don't start the "NHC padding for numbers" crowd up.
Quoting 720. CaribBoy:



OMG yes!!



That would seem to be on course for Florida.




158
Unfortunately south Louisiana has all too much experience cleaning up after a flood. This time, the North Shore and the Baton Rouge area were among the communities that got hardest hit. On Saturday, 62 miles of flooded Interstate 12 was closed from Baton Rouge to Covington.

The days ahead won't be easy for flooded homeowners. To help, here are some articles on mold remediation and other tipss for cleaning out flooded homes. They were written in the wake of Hurricane Katrina by then Times-Picayune home and garden editors Renee Peck and Karen Taylor Gist and other writers.

Mold, mildew, damage repair: LSU's LaHouse offers resources for flood victims
Mold, mildew, damage repair: LSU's LaHouse offers resources for flood victims
The LSU AgCenter's website offers guides for flood recovery, mold and mildew cleanup, carpet and floor restoration, moisture problems and housing repair.

CLEAN-UP
Do a form of triage: Decide what can be saved and what can't. If in doubt, throw it out.

Strip the house of all furnishings impacted by flood waters. Cover salvageable items with plastic and leave outdoors to dry.

If the carpet got very wet, it has to go, since carpets harbor mold. Saturated carpet is heavy, so remove in 6-foot sections, roll them up with the pad and take it to the dump or put it out with the trash. (High quality oriental or wool rugs may be able to be saved; try not to fold it and get it to a cleaner as soon as possible.)

Throw away anything porous that got wet: bedding, books and papers, upholstered furniture, kitchen utensils.

Remove linens and clothing to a dry place; they may be able to be laundered and restored. Non-porous dishes can be cleaned after the water is declared safe to drink and the sewer lines are clear.

If your refrigerator wasn't underwater, and you think you can salvage it, unplug it and throw everything inside it away. Take out all removable parts. If there is one, empty the defrost water disposal pan. Wash all parts thoroughly with hot water and rinse with disinfectant made from 1 teaspoon chlorine bleach to each gallon of water. With a solution of hot water and baking soda (or 1 cup vinegar or household ammonia to 1 gallon of warm water) wash the interior, including doors and gaskets. Leave the door open for the appliance to ventilate it. WARNING: Do not mix ammonia and bleach as it can release poisonous gas.

If you have mud: Shovel out as much as you can, being careful to wear protective clothing such as rubber boots and gloves. Then, if you have running water, hose down the floors, washing mud out the doors. Don't allow the water to sit on the floor for long; use a wet vac or squeegee mop to remove it promptly.

Any food including canned food that has been touched by flood water must be considered contaminated and discarded.

Remove limbs, debris and trash.

Start the interior drying-out process. There are several ways to do this, some of which will have to wait until it's safe to turn on the electricity:

Open up closet and cabinet doors. As cabinets dry, you should be able to remove swollen drawers.

Use fans to move the air. Do not use central air conditioning until ducts have been inspected and cleaned. If ducts run through the slab or were flooded they may contain debris and bacteria, which will just be blown into your home.

Run dehumidifiers and window air conditioning units.

Use desiccants (materials that absorb moisture) in closets or other enclosed areas. These include chemical dehumidifying packets used to dry out boats, cat litter made of clay, or calcium chloride pellets used to melt ice in the winter. Hang the pellets in a pillow case in the closet and place a pan beneath to catch dripping water.

Start removing waterlogged surface materials. Wallboard acts like a sponge; even several inches of water can be soaked upward in what is called a wicking effect. Wallboard will have to go. Plaster survives a flood better than wallboard, but takes a very long time to dry. If plaster separates from the wall laths (studs) as it dries, it will have to be replaced. Wood swells and distorts with moisture intake, but generally regains its shape as it dries.

Even if walls and ceilings look undamaged, open them at various places to check for mold and mildew. If you see either, drywall must come out.

Remove, bag and throw away all insulation in the walls. This will have to be replaced.

Clean all non-porous surfaces with a disinfectant. Ceramic tile is nonporous, so it can be cleaned as usual, although the grout, which is porous, may require special effort. Nonporous materials such as Corian countertops or stainless steel also can be cleaned.

Vacuum floors if possible with a vacuum that has a HEPA filter. Do not use your regular vacuum unless you can cover the exhaust with a filter or direct the exhaust outside; you may simply blow bacteria around your house.

MOLD REMOVAL

The rule of thumb is that anything that stays wet for 48 hours has potential mold growth. And anything porous - sheetrock, ceiling tiles, insulation - will host mold. So if you had any standing water for more than two days, you should remove all porous materials.

Always wear protective clothing when dealing with mold; respirators, preferably made of neoprene, are recommended.

The Terrebonne Readiness and Assistance Commission recommends that you use the following mixture to clean all moldy surfaces to keep mold from spreading as you remove porous surfaces: In a garden pump sprayer, mix 3/4-gallon bleach and 1/4-gallon TSP (trisodium phosphate, a common ingredient used in pressure-washing, available in paint and hardware stores) with 1-1/2 gallons water. Spray infested surface so that it is wet to the touch. The kill time is 10 minutes MINIMUM. Scrub infected area if necessary. Allow drying to the touch. Repeat procedure. Others recommend a mixture of one part chlorine bleach to nine parts water, but the chlorine smell will linger. Acceptable as well are phenolic or alcohol-based germicides available at janitorial supply stores.

Remove and discard all porous materials (that is, anything that will absorb water): wallboard, ceiling tiles, insulation, carpet, etc.

Remove Sheetrock in the following manner: Make a horizontal cut parallel to the floor at least 3 feet above the level of flood water contamination; if the water was 1 foot high in the house, go up to 4 feet of sheetrock and cut it out. If flood waters were 4 feet or above, the entire wall needs to be removed.

Disinfect studs and other exposed structural wood with a good germicide and then seal them with a fungicidal encapsulant, such as Kilz. Be prepared to remove flooring, since most ceramic tile is installed on top of drywall or greenboard. Spaces between floors and subfloors can harbor mold and bacteria.

Allow exposed walls to dry thoroughly before starting restoration. This will take at least a week or more. Moisture meters can test for wood moisture.

While wood frame homes will survive flooding, those fully impacted by flood waters may not be good candidates for repair. On a square-foot basis, new construction is cheaper than remodeling.

SOURCES: The Red Cross; Federal Emergency Management Agency; interviews with contractors, structural engineers, industrial hygienists, insurance adjusters, residents who have previously mitigated after hurricanes and floods. Click here for the Red Cross and FEMA publication, "Repairing Your Flooded Home."
Quoting 401. justmehouston:



Just curious ...what is your intuition about this situation?
I cant wrap my mind around it ...the more I look, the more confusing it is

I think the NWS should have anticipated this event would play out as it has, had they not been so enamored with their models...and the models did not show tropical development. As a previous posted said paraphrasing, the NWS should have been screaming for people to prepare for what was coming. Instead, these poor folks didn't know what hit them. The result will be many deaths. An experienced, mature weatherperson knows the water is the killer not the wind, and would have appreciated the danger to come...and the need to sound the alarm. If this is harsh, maybe they should go report the weather in some third tier market.
Quoting 753. Stormchaser121:


Thats what I was thinking. Sounds like a mixture of paul and Tom. They changed it nationwide recently. The new voices name is in fact Paul. Maybe it's a upgraded version of the first Paul. I'm not sure. But I'm not used to it yet. Ive listen to Tom for the past 15 years. The new voice also mispronounces words. Should improve as time goes by.


Where can I download "Paul" as a voice for my own PC?


In this aerial photo, rescue officials and civilians alike work to pull people from their flooded homes along the flooded Tangipahoa River near Amite, Independence, Tickfaw and Robert, Louisiana Saturday, August 13, 2016. (Ted Jackson/Nola.com | The Times-Picayune)
Large"wall" of TPW moving west at 30W. Good vorticity in there and low shear in front.
Just for the record, the first Flash Flood warning for Denham Springs went out at 2:28 a.m. cdt today. (Please see text below.) The warning included other locations. Source, the COD warning page, only goes back 24 hours. I saw no earlier NWS New Orleans Flash Flood warnings within the 24 hours ending 10 pm this evening but there could have been some prior to 10 pm last eve.

The location and area was warned again at 4:47 am, at 8:14 am just before the warning shown below expired. A warning went out at 8:48 am declaring a flash flood emergency for Denham Springs and other places until 2:30 pm. At 2:18, another Flash Flood Warning included wording of extensive flooding occurring. At 2:35 pm another warning stated emergency management officials had reported widespread, dangerous flooding at 2:30. In the 2:35 warning, a PDS situation was declared and that warning appears to have expired at 8:35 this evening.

Right now, the link above will show the warnings from today, in case anyone wants to read them. NWS Lake Charles warnings there also, as are all the severe weather and Flash Flood warnings across the U.S. in the past 24 hours.

Though the predicted rainfall amounts may have been low at 2:28 am, the NWS clearly put out the word at the first warning. A "PDS" requires reports from the emergency management, storm chasers, people who are not watching radar. People in the field. The worst part of flooding, as long as you don't drown, (edit) is the aftermath. Flooding happens quickly and it is difficult to run from because flooding's nature is to isolate.

First warning listed at COD page as of 10 pm cdt Saturday, August 13, 2016 is below.
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
228 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
LIVINGSTON PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
WEST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
IBERVILLE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
ASCENSION PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 830 AM CDT SATURDAY

* AT 223 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.
WIDESPREAD 5 TO AS MUCH AS 20 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN ALREADY
OVER THE WARNED AREA AND AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BATON ROUGE...ZACHARY...BAKER...DENHAM SPRINGS...GONZALES...
DONALDSONVILLE...PLAQUEMINE...PORT ALLEN...OAK HILLS PLACE...ST.
GABRIEL...WALKER...ADDIS...BRUSLY...WHITE CASTLE...LIVINGSTON...SORRENTO...
FRENCH SETTLEMENT...MARINGOUIN...ALBANY AND ROSEDALE.

ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
REDEVELOPING. HEAVIEST BAND OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER LIVINGSTON,
ASCENSION, AND EXTREME EASTERN EAST BATON ROUGE PARISHES. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT RAINFALL GREATER THAN A 0.25" IN LESS THAN AN
HOUR WILL QUICKLY LEAD TO PROBLEMS IN A FEW LOCATIONS. COMBINE THAT
WITH RISING RIVERS AND FLASH FLOODING COULD QUICKLY BECOME A SERIOUS
PROBLEM IF VERY HEAVY RAIN OCCURS
.

The headline on this blog was an early warning for those who read here. Kudos Bob Henson!
there was plenty of warning rains were forecasted and info kept up to date during event
here is place of all photos I have posted lots more pictures info for those interested

Link
Quoting 759. leofarnsworth:


I think the NWS should have anticipated this event would play out as it has, had they not been so enamored with their models...and the models did not show tropical development. As a previous posted said paraphrasing, the NWS should have been screaming for people to prepare for what was coming. Instead, these poor folks didn't know what hit them. The result will be many deaths. An experienced, mature weatherperson knows the water is the killer not the wind, and would have appreciated the danger to come...and the need to sound the alarm. If this is harsh, maybe they should go report the weather in some third tier market.

Water doesnt clear shelves at the super market and home goods stores.... Wind does.
No development on this run, so far at least...
Ps. I did not look at the regular flood watches and warnings - for river and stream floods. Someone else can take take a look at that if they want. Those could be ongoing. I don't know the geography well enough, and I sure did not study the gages the past few days.

Wasn't our "atmoaggie" from up that way? Like Gonzales or something? There's some Gonzales connection in my mind. Maybe from the 2011 Mississippi flood. Any rate, I hope atmo and his loved ones are okay.
Quoting 708. Chicklit:

Is this to become Fiona?



IDK kinda looks like a Phineas to me:


Been lurking mainly. Really sad to see all of the area I passed through this summer under water at the moment. To all in or with family in the affected areas, I hope to best for you and yours.
hey bf some expected it or wanted it declared tropical storm or depression
when in fact it was not it was a quasi stationary tropical rain type low pressure system
feeding off the warm flow from the gom
feeding all the moisture into the system
therefore causing epic tropical rains
and there is still tomorrow yet before its finish in some places
hopefully the epic part for rainfall is done and remaining totals are low
Quoting 777. HurricaneFan:

No development on this run, so far at least...

The GFS has been going back and forth between a quick strengthening off when off the coast or a weak system with a westward movement, the 12z Euro liked the northward movement, we'll find out in 30 hrs.
The water is still rising and people still need to be rescued: Link Louisiana flood rescue facebook page. This is beyond horrible: people in attics etc

Rescue groups inundated with people needing rescue
Here's one... and the forecast has changed since the blog was written. Denham Springs is experiencing river flood also. Amite expected to crest right about now and not start falling till tomorrow night (add: or early Monday).



Good night. Be happy.
Quoting 740. Southernyat:

LinkLook at this water rescue in the Baton Rouge, La area: http://www.wafb.com/story/32753230/dramatic-video- shows-woman-dog-being-rescued-from-sinking-car


One nail biter to be sure ....
Quoting 784. Southernyat:

The water is still rising and people still need to be rescued: Link Louisiana flood rescue facebook page. This is beyond horrible: people in attics etc

Rescue groups inundated with people needing rescue
Hello Yat. The river bulging. I can't manage to look at your link. Sorry. But I can imagine it. I hope everyone is OKay.
Quoting 778. Barefootontherocks:

Ps. I did not look at the regular flood watches and warnings - for river and stream floods. Someone else can take take a look at that if they want. Those could be ongoing. I don't know the geography well enough, and I sure did not study the gages the past few days.

Wasn't our "atmoaggie" from up that way? Like Gonzales or something? There's some Gonzales connection in my mind. Maybe from the 2011 Mississippi flood. Any rate, I hope atmo and his loved ones are okay.


We all miss him. He was a bright guy. We had many good discussions on here.
Quoting 759. leofarnsworth:


I think the NWS should have anticipated this event would play out as it has, had they not been so enamored with their models...and the models did not show tropical development. As a previous posted said paraphrasing, the NWS should have been screaming for people to prepare for what was coming. Instead, these poor folks didn't know what hit them. The result will be many deaths. An experienced, mature weatherperson knows the water is the killer not the wind, and would have appreciated the danger to come...and the need to sound the alarm. If this is harsh, maybe they should go report the weather in some third tier market.


This comment caught my attention. I am thinking, since the water is the killer, why do we use wind speeds to say how dangerous a storm is?
Quoting 780. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

hey bf some expected it or wanted it declared tropical storm or depression
when in fact it was not it was a quasi stationary tropical rain type low pressure system
feeding off the warm flow from the gom
feeding all the moisture into the system
therefore causing epic tropical rains
Hi Keeper. Yeah. For sure, the tropics can produce torrential rain without an organized storm. If it needs a name, maybe we can call it A. Nomalous. ;)
Quoting 788. Grothar:



We all miss him. He was a bright guy. We had many good discussions on here.
For sure. atmo was/is one of the brighter tulips in the garden.
Quoting 784. Southernyat:

The water is still rising and people still need to be rescued: Link Louisiana flood rescue facebook page. This is beyond horrible: people in attics etc

Rescue groups inundated with people needing rescue
its a troubling time for sure
Quoting 759. leofarnsworth:


I think the NWS should have anticipated this event would play out as it has, had they not been so enamored with their models...and the models did not show tropical development. As a previous posted said paraphrasing, the NWS should have been screaming for people to prepare for what was coming. Instead, these poor folks didn't know what hit them. The result will be many deaths. An experienced, mature weatherperson knows the water is the killer not the wind, and would have appreciated the danger to come...and the need to sound the alarm. If this is harsh, maybe they should go report the weather in some third tier market.


This is unfounded criticism. A record event is just that, a record. Even a "mature" weather forecaster does not have the experience behind a record, because by definition they've never seen it before.

As for warning, the NWS can only do so much to warn people. This is like blaming the NHC for not doing enough when people refuse the mandatory evacuation orders. You can only do so much. I've been in a massive flood event, I know what it's like. I put up with tornadoes every year, it's not the NWS office's fault when people's reactions to a tornado warning are "Really? Where? I'm going outside to look for it." How people react to warnings is a growing part of meteorology. This isn't a perfect science, in actuality, this is a very, very young science. The fact that we can somewhat explain why record events happen is tremendous. But expecting a forecast office to nail it ahead AND warn the public is ludicrous.

Some bloggers on here may be enamored with models, but the NWS is not. I'm sorry that they are well versed in ALL of the technology and tools afforded them. Do they miss events sometimes? Sure, but guess what. They're human. Even the most legendary forecasters made mistakes.

If the NWS thought there was something potentially life-threatening and "screamed" every time, we would see a decrease in faith in them and an increase in fatalities. A conservative approach might not be everyone's favorite, but it is the most reasoned.

/rant over
Quoting 776. Climate175:




Sweet storm up there next to Greenland.
796. vis0
image host


Came out of a store at 10PM (nighttime!) and  even though the store was not super cooled (Ac running in LOW mode) when i opened the door to go outside my instinct was to look up to see where the Sun was, since it was not just the humidex (skinAkin) of 107F (SE/southern NJ had 119F) but it felt like a HOT light was focused on me.  Last time i felt this was in an experiment of being ion a hot room and having fine dry sand sent through a wind-fan at 74 mph...sandblasted.  In 40-50 years this will be the norm, not for those that say "that'swhy its called "summer" but during hot periods in Spring and Indian summer in October. i'm telling young family members to buy beachfront property in Hudson Bay NOW!...Here's a thought Trout trying to swim up ...Niagara falls (Canadian side) ...during winter

Prayers, Positive thoughts and a helping hand (visit Red Cross, Portlight and help in useful ways as they ask)  to those under the flooding rains
Right, Astro. If everyone were a (name withheld certain OKC TV met) the world would be out of balance.
~Scooby
Quoting 796. vis0:




in 40 or 50 years
try 2025/2030 that's the time line you looking for
Watching the flood situation in Louisiana is chilling, and I recently noted that here in Florida, we got lucky that the cutoff low developed over the gulf rather than land, or the flooding occurring in Louisiana could have occurred here.

At one point, a large region of rainfall estimates of 20-30 inches with some areas of 35+ occurred over the northeast gulf. These were not biased results either, because I found many rain gauges on land the corresponded to the estimates over the rain gauges, making the calibration of such estimates fairly easy.

With that said, this event in Louisiana is not only major, but it's extreme. Were talking 1,2, and 3 day totals, as well as river gauges, breaking all time totals in one of the wettest places in the country.

I don't want to go blowing the climate change horn too loudly, since climate is measured over long term, but one of the main signals of the warming climate is increased water vapor and"stuck" weather patterns, including anomalous ones. This event fits those all too well...
Have friends from Houston who come and visit Destin every year: just now they literally had to turn around on their drive east because they couldn't get past Louisiana. Hard to believe it's that bad.
This was one exciting time on the blog.
Ok not sure if the picture with my above comment is going to post. Here's a link-

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/ b1/GustavCuba.gif

I remember that period when Gustav ramped up before hitting Cuba like it was yesterday. It was a beast then. The excitement of tracking such an awesome store was mingled with a little bit of anxiousness as well. My location on the Gulf Coast was right on the Eastern edge of the cone of uncertainty and at times I thought it was edging more north and east than the forecast track.
Prayers go out to the folks of South LA for comfort and strength in the days ahead.
Most anomalous about A. Nomalous aka TD Snail is it shoulda (woulda, coulda) been a tropical cyclone, and, as I take it from what I've read at wu, the reason this spiraling mass of rainfall-laden clouds was not declared such was that it moved onto land. Oh, wait a minute, TCs do that. If it had been more organized, e.g. a TS or a hurricane, wonder if the rainfall totals would have been higher. Or lower.

Lots of humid air coming north from the GOM this summer as compared to others, contributing to summer thunderstorms up here. I been thinking just a "normal" TS happening in the Gulf might have staved off the past few days' events, or even eliminated their possibility.

Water vapor gives and takes. Changes form. Zooms around. Rides the wind. Floats. Flows. Been that way since the atmosphere began, I'd guess. The molecules of water present in this storm have traveled the skies, rivers, streams and oceans of this earth for God knows how long. Oh, the power these molecules must have. And the memories. Maybe one day human art and science will unlock more of their secrets.

I better go to sleep. I'm getting really "out there."

(Ps. These words belong to me, not IBM)
805. vis0

Quoting 798. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



in 40 or 50 years
try 2025/2030 that's the time line you looking for

Understand, though i mean as "regular" in being 9 of every 11 yrs by 2030AD.  By what i "read" it seems it will be 4or5yrs of every 11 yrs  by 2030AD, so people on Earth will go over the 50% odds therefore it will feel like every year even if its every other year due to not having more than a year of "getting away" from the excessive warmth/heat....by then i figure as how the Austrailian congress is changing titles to keep GW on the down-low (no pun intended) maybe instead of winter it'll be changed to "anteSpring" or an Anglo-Saxons word for "break from heat".

Also just noticed  the heat caused my brain to think i was still in 2006AD, as i usually type 2040-2060AD or 24 to 34 yrs from now but added `10 yrs. oops.


saw something one rarely sees up here, many mosquitoes INSIDE an AC mega store those stores a super cooled so mosquito from this area needed a cool down from the heat the southern cousins are use to.

well need to get some zzz's  gotta first get my waterbed out of meat-locker ...where are the ICE hotel when we need one!

Back to OBs on weather specially the flooding, lightning and ITCZ)~36hrs)
After i read Dr. Masters article, and I begin reading the comments, it automatically goes to the bottom of comments. I am using my ipad, any suggestions of why?
Thanks so much
Quoting 807. Mbrown5254:

After i read Dr. Masters article, and I begin reading the comments, it automatically goes to the bottom of comments. I am using my ipad, any suggestions of why?
Thanks so much
First welcome to the blog. If you need anything just ask us and please follow the rules. To answer your question, go to the SORT section under the your comment box and switch it to ORDER POSTED.
Watching the disturbance off SW coast FL and heading into gom... More trouble ahead?  I'm grief stricken by the photos and stories of flood victims in LA. Words can't describe the tragic flood event unfolding before our eyes. My heart goes out to all affected and those assisting in rescue efforts. Bless you all. 
Quoting 802. opal92nwf:

Ok not sure if the picture with my above comment is going to post. Here's a link-

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/ b1/GustavCuba.gif

I remember that period when Gustav ramped up before hitting Cuba like it was yesterday. It was a beast then. The excitement of tracking such an awesome store was mingled with a little bit of anxiousness as well. My location on the Gulf Coast was right on the Eastern edge of the cone of uncertainty and at times I thought it was edging more north and east than the forecast track.



Here's a nice anim gif

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
432 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN ST. MARTIN PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
ST. MARY PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 800 AM CDT

* AT 429 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN IN THE PAST
FEW HOURS. FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY OCCURRING DUE TO THE SATURATED
GROUND. AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
MORGAN CITY...FRANKLIN...PATTERSON...JEANERETTE...BERWICK ...
BAYOU VISTA...BURNS POINT...STEPHENSVILLE...BALDWIN...CHARENTON...
AMELIA...PATTERSON MEMORIAL AIRPORT...SORREL...ELLERSLIE...
PIERRE PART AND CENTERVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

&&
good morning a/t/m dont see much that can turn into a cyclone. no name holds all the cards so far this yr.
Gotta' be some big waves for the UK and northern Europe. Odd for this time of year. More like a winter storm.

Quoting 795. Astrometeor:



Sweet storm up there next to Greenland.
Quoting 812. islander101010:

good morning a/t/m dont see much that can turn into a cyclone. no name holds all the cards so far this yr.

GFS very inconsistent in the long range. could very well go the rest of August without a storm. Going to be super hard to get an active season
Wouldn't surprise me if something tries to spin up in the GOM this week. Good amount of shear currently, but that may relax. Even though NoName never got over water, conditions could allow something else to spin up.

Terrible days for Louisiana ahead. One of my favorite places to visit. Whether tropical or not, the 2016 season is already a bad one.

Eyes on the African waves as they come off. We should have a player in the water soon.



Quoting 812. islander101010:

good morning a/t/m dont see much that can turn into a cyclone. no name holds all the cards so far this yr.
Quoting 814. wunderweatherman123:
Going to be super hard to get an active season
We are at mile 5 of the marathon. Just warming up.

Quoting 816. Neapolitan:


818. beell


MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0568
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
748 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX...WESTERN LA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 141145Z - 141745Z SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...BROKEN CLUSTERS OF COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX AND EXTEND NORTHEAST UP ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN LA. THE CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAKLY CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE FAR SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE SLOWLY EXITING LOW CIRCULATION OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THERE IS ALSO PROXIMITY OF A STATIONARY FRONT HELPING TO PROVIDE FOR THE POOLING OF VERY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE.

PWATS OVER THE REGION ARE GENERALLY OVER 2.25 INCHES...AND THIS CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL INFLOW OFF THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. RAINFALL RATES AGAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY HIGH AS A RESULT...AND IN SOME CASES EXCEEDING 2.5 INCHES/HR WHERE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS CAN FOCUS.

THE LATEST HRRR/HRRRP GUIDANCE INDICATES MULTIPLE SEMI-ORGANIZED BANDS OF CONVECTION PERSISTING THROUGH THE MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST TX AND INTO PARTS OF WESTERN LA WHERE SOME AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN VERY HEAVY RAINS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE ADDITIONAL TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN SOME ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ORRISON
Although the tropics in the Atlantic basin have been quiet since Earl, it will ramp up again. Also, we still have September and October. It is also possible we could observe multiple named storms forming and occurring at the same time. We could also get a few named storms in November.

It is amazing in this instantaneous world we live in where ... we want it NOW. Just press the "Start" button!

Give it time, it will happen. Long range models will change, as conditions change. If August is quiet, it does not indicate the rest of the season will be a sleeper.

Prayers to southern Louisiana - dealing with their 2nd extreme flooding event this year.

Quoting 816. Neapolitan:




Considering that the last 3 seasons have been far below the 1951-2010 average, in terms of 3-year running mean ACE scoring in the lowest 18th percentile for all years since 1851 (likely even lower knowing the multitude of missing Atlantic storms before the mid 20th century) & that this season would have to practically double the amount of activity (wrt ACE) compared to 2013-15 to be classified as an "above-normal season" (~120% of median ACE (~88) i.e. ~110-115 ACE) , you're not really going out on much of a limb there....
821. beell


12Z RAP @ 700 mb w/a weaker, secondary mid level circulation over south TX.
822. SLU
ECMWF showing some development of this wave off the coast of Africa.

Quoting 814. wunderweatherman123:


GFS very inconsistent in the long range. could very well go the rest of August without a storm. Going to be super hard to get an active season


We have ALREADY had an active season. I really wonder where some of you get this stuff from.
Quoting 824. Hurricanes101:



We have ALREADY had an active season. I really wonder where some of you get this stuff from.

No we haven't. Slightly above average to this point/ If models are correct, and that's an IF, we could have only 1 storm form in August. To get an active season, September and October need to be almost hyperactive so get another 8-10 storms and 4-6 more hurricanes.
Quoting 825. wunderweatherman123:


No we haven't. Slightly above average to this point/ If models are correct, and that's an IF, we could have only 1 storm form in August. To get an active season, September and October need to be almost hyperactive so get another 8-10 storms and 4-6 more hurricanes.


5 named storms is an active season. On average the 5th storm does not form until August 31st, the 4th storm not until August 23rd and yesterday was the date of the average 3rd storm.

We have had an active season. The numbers bare it and September/October can easily get 8-10 storms combined.

What do you consider an active season? 20 named storms? It amazes me that 11 years later, 2005 has still warped peoples minds into what an active season actually is.
827. JRRP7
Quoting 815. HaoleboySurfEC:

Wouldn't surprise me if something tries to spin up in the GOM this week. Good amount of shear currently, but that may relax. Even though NoName never got over water, conditions could allow something else to spin up.

Terrible days for Louisiana ahead. One of my favorite places to visit. Whether tropical or not, the 2016 season is already a bad one.

Eyes on the African waves as they come off. We should have a player in the water soon.




The canadian shows a low ncoming off the yucatan and moving into s.texas on tuesday.
A most random morning selection





830. beell
Quoting 828. victoria780:

The canadian shows a low ncoming off the yucatan and moving into s.texas on tuesday.


I think your looking at the remains of a weak, secondary circulation at the tail end of the current weakness/troughing stretching from south TX to the northeast. IOW this does not originate off the Yucatan.
Quoting 830. beell:



I think your looking at the remains of a weak, secondary circulation at the tail end of the current weakness/troughing stretching from south TX to the northeast. IOW this does not originate off the Yucatan.
aSure loioks like originating off the yucatan,maybe your looking at the wrong map
Looks like to me on radar there's a spin right over Galveston bay?? We are under flash flood watch with 3-6" inches likely. So far has been ok. Rain at steady moderate levels at least at my house. We will see what happens as day progresses.

833. beell
Quoting 831. victoria780:

aSure loioks like originating off the yucatan,maybe your looking at the wrong map


I see it, just don't agree with it. I will have a good explanation if it happens..."I was wrong!"
:)

Takes diurnal convection off the Yucatan and has a party with it.
2004 didn't get an F storm until August 24th.

Not trying to compare this year to that one, but seeing as how 2004 was so bad, it'd be foolish to count this season out so early on...We haven't had any Charleys yet but guys...ALL 5 storms have made landfall so far... lets be thankful that they weren't all worse than they could have been.
Quoting 833. beell:



I see it, just don't agree with it. I will have a good explanation if it happens..."I was wrong!"
:)

Takes diurnal convection off the Yucatan and has a party with it.
I agree the Canadian is not the best,here today gone tomorrow.
Good morning I'm going Psuedo Natural Color on you guys. Whaa. :)...the stratocumulus clouds to the north of our area of interest this morning peeks my interest.



When you zoom out that massive low south of Greenland stands out.

Quoting 836. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Good morning I'm going Psuedo Natural Color on you guys. Whaa. :)...the stratocumulus clouds to the north of our area of interest this morning peeks my interest.



When you zoom out that massive low south of Greenland stands out.



Is that the same low that was over the Hudson Bay a few days ago???? Lol the hudsoncane lives on!
838. Tcwx2
EURO has a quick spin up from a remnant cold front.
839. beell
Quoting 832. kallenjrtx:

Looks like to me on radar there's a spin right over Galveston bay?? We are under flash flood watch with 3-6" inches likely. So far has been ok. Rain at steady moderate levels at least at my house. We will see what happens as day progresses.




Another, larger lower/mid-level spin off the coast of LA.
Quoting 820. Webberweather53:



Considering that the last 3 seasons have been far below the 1951-2010 average, in terms of 3-year running mean ACE scoring in the lowest 18th percentile for all years since 1851 (likely even lower knowing the multitude of missing Atlantic storms before the mid 20th century) & that this season would have to practically double the amount of activity (wrt ACE) compared to 2013-15 to be classified as an "above-normal season" (~120% of median ACE (~88) i.e. ~110-115 ACE) , you're not really going out on much of a limb there....
ACE-wise, that may be true. But based strictly on just the number of tropical cyclones that form, we should see a busy second half, with an additional seven to 12 storms spinning up before it's all said and done. (FWIW, the former would mean a storm forming every 16 days, while the latter would mean one every 9.3 days. That should be enough to keep the folks here happy. I hope.)

At any rate, 'twas not me "going out on a limb" here; it's forecasters at the National Hurricane Center...
g'morning peeps, hoping to check in on my Texas/Houston friends, how ya'll doing?

Any other Gulf coastal folks pickin' and grinnin' this morning?
Quoting 841. aquak9:

g'morning peeps, hoping to check in on my Texas/Houston friends, how ya'll doing?

Any other Gulf coastal folks pickin' and grinnin' this morning?
so far ok nothing too heavy been moderate rain....flood watch in effect...could get 3-6 inches with isolated higher amounts.
The Euro is still very insistent on developing two named storms

Quoting 841. aquak9:

g'morning peeps, hoping to check in on my Texas/Houston friends, how ya'll doing?

Any other Gulf coastal folks pickin' and grinnin' this morning?
Good morning from Mississippi coast. Wife and I talking this morning how incredibly lucky we were with no name passing right over us with not only minimal impact, but minimal rainfall for our immediate area. Hope today is a good day for Our neighbors to the west.
I was glad to see that it looked like TD Snail had kinda dissapated a little; for the past few days, every morning I wake up a damn, it's still there.... glad to see on a Sunday morning, I can not poit a finger at "it" any more.

peace and I hope the waters drain quickly
As I sit here thinking of the horrific flooding that has happened all around me, it really makes me worry to think of what will happen if a system sat in the Gulf, like this low has traversed over land from Fl to Tx. Unfortunately, the GOM is primed for another very serious situation. As we have seen, it doesn't take a name to cause complete devastation. I pray for all those who been affected by this flooding. I believe all of us on the Gulf Coast should keep a keen eye on the remainder of this season.
847. beell
Quoting 841. aquak9:

g'morning peeps, hoping to check in on my Texas/Houston friends, how ya'll doing?

Any other Gulf coastal folks pickin' and grinnin' this morning?


Nothing to complain about here.
Michael Ventrice
‏@MJVentrice
0Z Calib ECMWF Ens promoting eastern MDR wave a 50% chance for genesis. It's possible NHC labels this as an invest



ECMWF and CMC operational and both ECMWF and GFS ensembles still show some slight development of this wave.
The GFS develops a low over northern Florida that sticks around for at least a week. I hope this doesn't end up being a repeat.
Some areas the Big Bend saw 20" of rain last week, but east central Florida could still take some rain.
nhc 8 am first time this yr they did not mention a hinderance of the tropical wave coming off of africa. its the one?
The exact center of the wave is almost close to being off the coast, not fully off yet.
Quoting 800. opal92nwf:

Have friends from Houston who come and visit Destin every year: just now they literally had to turn around on their drive east because they couldn't get past Louisiana. Hard to believe it's that bad.


Even without water Louisiana can be a challenge to get through. I tried driving through it on the Friday before the July 4th weekend - took me 8 hours to get from Nachitoches to the Louisiana/Mississippi border because of numerous traffic accidents (and one small grass fire) on the main highways. Got to see a good portion of Baton Rouge that is now under water, as I got off the highway after being at a standstill for 30 minutes and drove through/around the city. The pictures definitely have more impact when you recognize the names and locations.

Good morning, and again best to those afflicted by this historic flooding event.
Quoting 847. beell:



Nothing to complain about here.


You always struck me as the glass half full type anyways ;) G'day beell, hope all is well and you have had a fantastic summer.

Some areas the Big Bend saw 20" of rain last week, but east central Florida could still take some rain.

Be glad to take about 5" up here in NE Fla, too. Wouldn't mind a bit.
856. beell
Quoting 854. daddyjames:



You always struck me as the glass half full type anyways ;) G'day beell, hope all is well and you ave had a fantastic summer.




Compared to folks to the east who had to empty their glasses several times...no complaints!
Summer has been hot and dry. This is nice.
:)
98L coming soon and will be Fiona by thursday. both the GFS and the EURO is forcasting the wave at 20 W to become a TD/TS by the end of the week.
Would not be surprised at all if the NHC mentions the system near Africa in their 2pm TWO.
Quoting 855. aquak9:

Some areas the Big Bend saw 20" of rain last week, but east central Florida could still take some rain.

Be glad to take about 5" up here in NE Fla, too. Wouldn't mind a bit.



I was a bit toasty when was in your neck of the woods this summer. I waved hello, but I don't think you saw me ;). Best to you aquak9.
860. beell

7 day rain estimate (most of it in the last 2, of course-click for larger image).

Link
And you, too, daddyjames.

(ps: beell's always usually half-fulla something, hahaha)
Quoting 861. aquak9:

And you, too, daddyjames.

(ps: beell's always usually half-fulla something, hahaha)


I was wondering why the water offshore of Houston was always so brown . ..
bless his heart....
It's amazing that with Louisiana's location this is still flooding so historic they don't know where the high water marks will actually be.
NHC TWD: A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic with axis extending from
18N19W to 07N19W, moving west at 15 kt. The wave is in a moist
environment with good 700 mb signature.
Scattered moderate
convection is from 05N-14N between 16W-24W.

The wave very close to moving off the coast fully.
867. beell
Quoting 861. aquak9:

And you, too, daddyjames.

(ps: beell's always usually half-fulla something, hahaha)
Quoting 863. daddyjames:



I was wondering why the water offshore of Houston was always so brown . ..


i do have to keep the value of my contributions in step with the abilities of some members.
Quoting 867. beell:



i do have to keep the value of my contributions in step with the abilities of some members.


I do ppreciae that you do take members like me into consideration :)
869. beell
Niece/Husband on the southwest side of Lafayette (along with their new first-born) got their first ride in a firetruck yesterday afternoon. Ankle-deep in the house when they left. Might have stayed were it not for the infant.
Quoting 848. HurricaneFan:

Michael Ventrice
%u200F@MJVentrice
0Z Calib ECMWF Ens promoting eastern MDR wave a 50% chance for genesis. It's possible NHC labels this as an invest



ECMWF and CMC operational and both ECMWF and GFS ensembles still show some slight development of this wave.

Who has been saying we will not get another storm the rest of August and how bad the conditions are? Would like to hear you now, I've been saying since last week the 17th-24th of August will provide a good opportunity for tropical development. The conditions will improve a little by then I thought. Fiona is on the way, but first we will have an invest to start with probably today. By the way 6th storm doesn't form until the second week of September on average..
Quoting 860. beell:


7 day rain estimate (most of it in the last 2, of course-click for larger image).

Link


The problem is that scale only goes to 20" for 7 days. There are locations that received over 20" in 1 day in parts of Louisiana. I would like to know how much they picked up overall from the system (30-40" in some areas I would guess).
Quoting 862. Climate175:




Has a nice look already for a wave
Quoting 870. WeatherkidJoe2323:


Who has been saying we will not get another storm the rest of August and how bad the conditions are? Would like to hear you now, I've been saying since last week the 17th-24th of August will provide a good opportunity for tropical development. The conditions will improve a little by then I thought. Fiona is on the way, but first we will have an invest to start with probably today. By the way 6th storm doesn't form until the second week of September..

I agree. We will probably get an additional 1-3 storms before the end of the month, which is not in any way below average. I feel like people overestimated this season because of the hyperactive June, and everyone was anticipating 2005-like activity. This season was expected to be slightly above average by most agencies, and I think that's how it's going to turn out.
874. beell
Quoting 871. Sfloridacat5:



The problem is that scale only goes to 20" for 7 days. There are locations that received over 20" in 1 day in parts of Louisiana. I would like to know how much they picked up overall from the system (30-40" in some areas I would guess).


I read it as 20 plus. Maybe the update will true-up.
Quoting 870. WeatherkidJoe2323:


Who has been saying we will not get another storm the rest of August and how bad the conditions are? Would like to hear you now, I've been saying since last week the 17th-24th of August will provide a good opportunity for tropical development. The conditions will improve a little by then I thought. Fiona is on the way, but first we will have an invest to start with probably today. By the way 6th storm doesn't form until the second week of September on average..


Also the idea that the Euro is hinting that both this wave coming off now and the one behind it develops, that already gives us 2 more storms by August 24th with still a week to go in August. We will have to keep an eye on trends and see if the Euro continues to shows development.

Remember with Earl though, most models did not show it as much until the system started to organize, so we have to see how all of this plays out.
2.28" at my place last evening, near the Houston NWS site.
I defer to their wisdom, but I don't quite understand why the NHC hasn't circled the wave off Africa. I certainly don't expect anything big, but given fairly favorable conditions and some model support for limited development, statistically its odds are surely at least 10%, probably a little more.
Quoting 870. WeatherkidJoe2323:


Who has been saying we will not get another storm the rest of August and how bad the conditions are? Would like to hear you now, I've been saying since last week the 17th-24th of August will provide a good opportunity for tropical development. The conditions will improve a little by then I thought. Fiona is on the way, but first we will have an invest to start with probably today. By the way 6th storm doesn't form until the second week of September on average..
MJO or not, mid-late August will always show its true self. This wave exiting now, and two more will have to be watched over the coming 7-10 days.
I believe that low also drops south into CFL and hangs around a bit. Yes we could use the rain here on the coast.
Quoting 850. Sfloridacat5:

The GFS develops a low over northern Florida that sticks around for at least a week. I hope this doesn't end up being a repeat.
Some areas the Big Bend saw 20" of rain last week, but east central Florida could still take some rain.

Red Alert. Load all torpedo bays. Ready phasers.
881. SLU
I'm surprised that the NHC hasn't mentioned the Cabo Verde wave as yet even though the EURO has been consistently showing development in the short term in the last few runs. If it was the GFS they might just blow it off as a potential false alarm but they normally take the EURO seriously.

Quoting 873. HurricaneFan:


I agree. We will probably get an additional 1-3 storms before the end of the month, which is not in any way below average. I feel like people overestimated this season because of the hyperactive June, and everyone was anticipating 2005-like activity. This season was expected to be slightly above average by most agencies, and I think that's how it's going to turn out.


Yeah not at all below average in numbers. Certainly not 2005 activity and I agree.
A rare batch of night and early morning thunderstorms last night in south Florida.
Quoting 875. Hurricanes101:



Also the idea that the Euro is hinting that both this wave coming off now and the one behind it develops, that already gives us 2 more storms by August 24th with still a week to go in August. We will have to keep an eye on trends and see if the Euro continues to shows development.

Remember with Earl though, most models did not show it as much until the system started to organize, so we have to see how all of this plays out.


All we can do is keep an eye on it, there is not much SAL in the way of these waves right now which gives it a better shot, the only question is shear being a problem and I don't think so at least for this first wave. Like I've been saying the potential is there coming up to get a name or some names crossed off the list . Fairly confident Fiona will be with us this week.
Quoting 878. Climate175:

MJO or not, mid-late August will always show its true self. This wave exiting now, and two more will have to be watched over the coming 7-10 days.


Give a low a good environment lower shear and hardly any SAL and things can get going. Will be watching.
Quoting 850. Sfloridacat5:

The GFS develops a low over northern Florida that sticks around for at least a week. I hope this doesn't end up being a repeat.
Some areas the Big Bend saw 20" of rain last week, but east central Florida could still take some rain.

NE Fl needs rain badly too...< 3 inches since May (along the coast)
Quoting 885. WeatherkidJoe2323:



Give a low a good environment lower shear and hardly any SAL and things can get going. Will be watching.
SAL will just be getting cleared with each passing wave, so it is looking pretty good as you said, for Fiona to be coming soon.
Good morning

My thoughts and prayers to anyone affected with the horrific flooding happening. Watching what is going on is mind boggling..... Incredible live coverage:

Link

Lindy
890. beell
Quoting 881. SLU:

I'm surprised that the NHC hasn't mentioned the Cabo Verde wave as yet even though the EURO has been consistently showing development in the short term in the last few runs. If it was the GFS they might just blow it off as a potential false alarm but they normally take the EURO seriously.




Maybe the GFS keeps it as an extension of the monsoon trough until mid-week.
No cell service here in Metro Baton Rouge still. Thankfully I have electric still, but the water still rising
Blobcon 1

I told you last week--August 22

Louisiana guvna live on TWC
the first possible storm may encounter hostile conditions around 55W. Both the GFS and the EURO reduces it to an open wave in this general area. we just have to wait and see if this forecast holds.
Might have a Grace (2015) type situation setting up in regards to future "Fiona"


as soon as 98L is introduce the blog will explode as per usual.
AS BF has termed it, Tropical Storm Snail, the gift that keeps on giving. looks as if its contributions of tropical moisture to the front is the gift that won't stop giving.



beell - sad and happy to hear about your fam in Lafayette. Hope that they won't have much damage to contend with in the long run.

Gro - waved hello to you as I went back and forth to the beach this summer. Hope all is well with you! That's the best Taz impression you got? ;)


The GFS isn't showing much development.
Quoting 897. stoormfury:

as soon as 98L is introduce the blog will explode as per usual.

And then the blog will quiet down to normal when it turns out to be a fish weakling.
905. beell

GFS 850 mb vort @ 36 hrs with an elongated area of vorticity.
The extra-tropical low SE of Greenland today at 1500 GMT (from EUMETSAT) :

Another rendition with the help of Earth.nullschool.net.
My thoughts go out to those affected by these historic floods in Louisiana.
We had to evacuate yesterday afternoon as water was coming in through the walls and doors. Had to walk out of the neighborhood in waist deep water, take 2 boats and hitch a ride to a hotel as neither of our vehicles could get out of the driveway. Roughly a foot of water in home expected but we probably won't be able to return until middle of the week. Thoughts are with everyone as we were actually lucky. We passed homes with flood water up the roof. After it had been receding, it suddenly started rising much faster.

10:45


11:30




3pm



Quoting 908. GuessedWrong:

We had to evacuate yesterday afternoon as water was coming in through the walls and doors. Had to walk out of the neighborhood in waist deep water, take 2 boats and hitch a ride to a hotel as neither of our vehicles could get out of the driveway. Roughly a foot of water in home expected but we probably won't be able to return until middle of the week. Thoughts are with everyone as we were actually lucky. We passed homes with flood water up the roof. After it had been receding, it suddenly started rising much faster.




Wish the best for you and your family. Your pictures are great at illustrating just how rapidly an inconvenient situation develops into a devastating situation. Glad to hear that you are safe, sorry to hear/see about your house.
Quoting 900. daddyjames:

AS BF has termed it, Tropical Storm Snail, the gift that keeps on giving. looks as if its contributions of tropical moisture to the front is the gift that won't stop giving.



beell - sad and happy to hear about your fam in Lafayette. Hope that they won't have much damage to contend with in the long run.

Gro - waved hello to you as I went back and forth to the beach this summer. Hope all is well with you! That's the best Taz impression you got? ;)


I thought that was you :)
Please share,

Unfortunately south Louisiana has all too much experience cleaning up after a flood. This time, the North Shore and the Baton Rouge area were among the communities that got hardest hit. On Saturday, 62 miles of flooded Interstate 12 was closed from Baton Rouge to Covington.

The days ahead won't be easy for flooded homeowners. To help, here are some articles on mold remediation and other tipss for cleaning out flooded homes. They were written in the wake of Hurricane Katrina by then Times-Picayune home and garden editors Renee Peck and Karen Taylor Gist and other writers.

Mold, mildew, damage repair: LSU's LaHouse offers resources for flood victims
Mold, mildew, damage repair: LSU's LaHouse offers resources for flood victims
The LSU AgCenter's website offers guides for flood recovery, mold and mildew cleanup, carpet and floor restoration, moisture problems and housing repair.

CLEAN-UP
Do a form of triage: Decide what can be saved and what can't. If in doubt, throw it out.

Strip the house of all furnishings impacted by flood waters. Cover salvageable items with plastic and leave outdoors to dry.

If the carpet got very wet, it has to go, since carpets harbor mold. Saturated carpet is heavy, so remove in 6-foot sections, roll them up with the pad and take it to the dump or put it out with the trash. (High quality oriental or wool rugs may be able to be saved; try not to fold it and get it to a cleaner as soon as possible.)

Throw away anything porous that got wet: bedding, books and papers, upholstered furniture, kitchen utensils.

Remove linens and clothing to a dry place; they may be able to be laundered and restored. Non-porous dishes can be cleaned after the water is declared safe to drink and the sewer lines are clear.

If your refrigerator wasn't underwater, and you think you can salvage it, unplug it and throw everything inside it away. Take out all removable parts. If there is one, empty the defrost water disposal pan. Wash all parts thoroughly with hot water and rinse with disinfectant made from 1 teaspoon chlorine bleach to each gallon of water. With a solution of hot water and baking soda (or 1 cup vinegar or household ammonia to 1 gallon of warm water) wash the interior, including doors and gaskets. Leave the door open for the appliance to ventilate it. WARNING: Do not mix ammonia and bleach as it can release poisonous gas.

If you have mud: Shovel out as much as you can, being careful to wear protective clothing such as rubber boots and gloves. Then, if you have running water, hose down the floors, washing mud out the doors. Don't allow the water to sit on the floor for long; use a wet vac or squeegee mop to remove it promptly.

Any food including canned food that has been touched by flood water must be considered contaminated and discarded.

Remove limbs, debris and trash.

Start the interior drying-out process. There are several ways to do this, some of which will have to wait until it's safe to turn on the electricity:

Open up closet and cabinet doors. As cabinets dry, you should be able to remove swollen drawers.

Use fans to move the air. Do not use central air conditioning until ducts have been inspected and cleaned. If ducts run through the slab or were flooded they may contain debris and bacteria, which will just be blown into your home.

Run dehumidifiers and window air conditioning units.

Use desiccants (materials that absorb moisture) in closets or other enclosed areas. These include chemical dehumidifying packets used to dry out boats, cat litter made of clay, or calcium chloride pellets used to melt ice in the winter. Hang the pellets in a pillow case in the closet and place a pan beneath to catch dripping water.

Start removing waterlogged surface materials. Wallboard acts like a sponge; even several inches of water can be soaked upward in what is called a wicking effect. Wallboard will have to go. Plaster survives a flood better than wallboard, but takes a very long time to dry. If plaster separates from the wall laths (studs) as it dries, it will have to be replaced. Wood swells and distorts with moisture intake, but generally regains its shape as it dries.

Even if walls and ceilings look undamaged, open them at various places to check for mold and mildew. If you see either, drywall must come out.

Remove, bag and throw away all insulation in the walls. This will have to be replaced.

Clean all non-porous surfaces with a disinfectant. Ceramic tile is nonporous, so it can be cleaned as usual, although the grout, which is porous, may require special effort. Nonporous materials such as Corian countertops or stainless steel also can be cleaned.

Vacuum floors if possible with a vacuum that has a HEPA filter. Do not use your regular vacuum unless you can cover the exhaust with a filter or direct the exhaust outside; you may simply blow bacteria around your house.

MOLD REMOVAL

The rule of thumb is that anything that stays wet for 48 hours has potential mold growth. And anything porous - sheetrock, ceiling tiles, insulation - will host mold. So if you had any standing water for more than two days, you should remove all porous materials.

Always wear protective clothing when dealing with mold; respirators, preferably made of neoprene, are recommended.

The Terrebonne Readiness and Assistance Commission recommends that you use the following mixture to clean all moldy surfaces to keep mold from spreading as you remove porous surfaces: In a garden pump sprayer, mix 3/4-gallon bleach and 1/4-gallon TSP (trisodium phosphate, a common ingredient used in pressure-washing, available in paint and hardware stores) with 1-1/2 gallons water. Spray infested surface so that it is wet to the touch. The kill time is 10 minutes MINIMUM. Scrub infected area if necessary. Allow drying to the touch. Repeat procedure. Others recommend a mixture of one part chlorine bleach to nine parts water, but the chlorine smell will linger. Acceptable as well are phenolic or alcohol-based germicides available at janitorial supply stores.

Remove and discard all porous materials (that is, anything that will absorb water): wallboard, ceiling tiles, insulation, carpet, etc.

Remove Sheetrock in the following manner: Make a horizontal cut parallel to the floor at least 3 feet above the level of flood water contamination; if the water was 1 foot high in the house, go up to 4 feet of sheetrock and cut it out. If flood waters were 4 feet or above, the entire wall needs to be removed.

Disinfect studs and other exposed structural wood with a good germicide and then seal them with a fungicidal encapsulant, such as Kilz. Be prepared to remove flooring, since most ceramic tile is installed on top of drywall or greenboard. Spaces between floors and subfloors can harbor mold and bacteria.

Allow exposed walls to dry thoroughly before starting restoration. This will take at least a week or more. Moisture meters can test for wood moisture.

While wood frame homes will survive flooding, those fully impacted by flood waters may not be good candidates for repair. On a square-foot basis, new construction is cheaper than remodeling.

SOURCES: The Red Cross; Federal Emergency Management Agency; interviews with contractors, structural engineers, industrial hygienists, insurance adjusters, residents who have previously mitigated after hurricanes and floods. Click here for the Red Cross and FEMA publication, "Repairing Your Flooded Home."

912. JRRP7
913. beell
Quoting 908. GuessedWrong:

We had to evacuate yesterday afternoon as water was coming in through the walls and doors. Had to walk out of the neighborhood in waist deep water, take 2 boats and hitch a ride to a hotel as neither of our vehicles could get out of the driveway. Roughly a foot of water in home expected but we probably won't be able to return until middle of the week. Thoughts are with everyone as we were actually lucky. We passed homes with flood water up the roof. After it had been receding, it suddenly started rising much faster.





"Lucky" might be a bit of an understatement. Ya'll got some work/inconvenience ahead.

The half submerged porta-potty is a little concerning, yes?
:)
Oh boy, another low to watch struggle in the MDR for the next 5 days.
Quoting 847. beell:



Nothing to complain about here.


In light of the potential heavy rains you may need to don your rain gear for a couple of days.



Or if you get a wild hair.......



As the water doggie mentioned, some rain up here would be welcomed.
Quoting 914. CybrTeddy:

Oh boy, another low to watch struggle in the MDR for the next 5 days.


Have you been talking to Taz? lol
Quoting 916. Hurricanes101:



Have you been talking to Taz? lol

I don't understand Taz. Before the season he said we'd have 25 storms, and now he's saying we'd be lucky to have 10. Does he do this every year?
Quoting 916. Hurricanes101:



Have you been talking to Taz? lol
No its just been the theme these past few years.
920. beell
Quoting 915. StAugustineFL:



In light of the potential heavy rains you may need to don your rain gear for a couple of days.

As the water doggie mentioned, some rain up here would be welcomed.


That's a blast from the past, Aug!
lol

Even with no rain, increased cloudiness will do!
Tropics waking up
http://crownweather.com/index.php/tropical-developm ent-is-possible-in-the-eastern-atlantic-this-week- a-burst-of-tropical-development-is-possible-from-l ate-this-month-through-september-october/
924. JRRP7
CMC
RE: the rain in Louisiana, has anyone heard how Old River Control is holding up? Seems like a bit of a stressor for an already-stressed system. Luckily the Red River enters the Atchafalaya downstream, since I would guess most of the recent rain is going into the Red.
Portlight,from Paul Timmons,....aka Presslord,

We are and have been working with interests in Louisiana and are identifying those who we can assist quickly
The flooding is still ongoing and we will update our progress here soon...as well in the updated Portlight featured entry to come later today.
Quoting 883. E46Pilot:

A rare batch of night and early morning thunderstorms last night in south Florida.
And it came with plenty of power outages and a lightning show I haven't seen in a while !! Lost power for 8 1/2 hours
Quoting 924. JRRP7:

CMC

Ridge pushes it westward after going northward.
Both the Euro and the CMC agree that we could see two named storms.The GFS has two weak lows so it shows both going westward.
Quoting 899. Gearsts:


Fixed it:

31.39 inches of rain fell in Watson,Louisiana,

Confirmed via TWC.

The new atmo 2.0 has flexed here mightily.
932. JRRP7
pretty interesting the GFS this run
The GFS seems overly elongated with the wave emerging off the western coast of Africa. The Euro and its ensembles are much more consolidated. I guess we'll see over the coming days.

Outside of that, both models have several vigorous waves tracking westward over the next week to 10 days.
GFS is the outlier at this point. Both ECMWF and CMC show development of this wave. I'm going to say this wave has a good chance of developing, given how the GFS has frequently been the outlier in the short range this year. Maybe the NHC will mention it at 2PM now that there is decent model support.

I'd place 48-hour development chances at 20% and 5-day development chances at 40%.
Quoting 935. HurricaneFan:

GFS is the outlier at this point. Both ECMWF and CMC show development of this wave. I'm going to say this wave has a good chance of developing, given how the GFS has frequently been the outlier in the short range this year. Maybe the NHC will mention it at 2PM now that there is decent model support.

I'd place 48-hour development chances at 20% and 5-day development chances at 40%.
I would also say there could be a good chance of an Invest too.
The flooding is now pushing into areas that were not flooding yesterday...many areas of Baton Rouge that were dry yesterday are now going under. I have friends all over B.R. giving me reports, many are out on boats conducting private rescues. This is far from over.
Quoting 930. Neapolitan:

Fixed it:




Did you do that on porpoise ?
The plague of "Liquidus" continues .... as all time river level and precipitation records in the southeastern United States fall like dominoes.

Let's see what the 12z Euro has to say as the CMC is now agreeing with the general idea of the Euro.Perhaps the NHC is waiting on one more run from the Euro before pulling the trigger.
EURO shows Fiona parked about 500 miles east of the central windward islands on Tuesday 23 august.
Quoting 940. washingtonian115:

Let's see what the 12z Euro has to say as the CMC is now agreeing with the general idea of the Euro.Perhaps the NHC is waiting on one more run from the Euro before pulling the trigger.


When is the 12z Euro coming out?
Rainfall observations/general distribution look mighty similar to Allison's from 2001. Allison's peak reports were a bit higher than currently being reported in Louisiana. Allison 1989 was also fairly comparable.



Quoting 942. java162:



Is the 12z Euro out?
No.Comes out at 2:00p.m eastern time.
Quoting 944. washingtonian115:

No.Comes out at 2:00p.m eastern time.


Cool.....Thnaks
946. beell
Quoting 934. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The GFS seems overly elongated with the wave emerging off the western coast of Africa. The Euro and its ensembles are much more consolidated. I guess we'll see over the coming days.

Outside of that, both models have several vigorous waves tracking westward over the next week to 10 days.


Maybe this?

NHC gonna be good and hard at work this week.
Quoting 946. beell:



Maybe this?



No. You're fired.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
NNNN
Quoting 940. washingtonian115:

Let's see what the 12z Euro has to say as the CMC is now agreeing with the general idea of the Euro.Perhaps the NHC is waiting on one more run from the Euro before pulling the trigger.
Also they want to wait for it to be totally off the coast, and see how it reacts over the water.
Quoting 941. stoormfury:

EURO shows Fiona parked about 500 miles east of the central windward islands on Tuesday 23 august.


I think that is actually "Gaston" it shows
NHC is completely uninterested as of now lol
You can actually make out the African Dust on the RGB.

I think we could see our semi-annual Cape Verde cluster very soon.

Welcome to the Cape Verde season.
It is always heartbreaking to see people lose everything they have. That's why I wish all storms are fish this year.

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
959. beell
Quoting 954. GTstormChaserCaleb:

You can actually make out the African Dust on the RGB.



Conditions look adequate for another outbreak. Tight surface pressure gradient along/off the northwest coast of Africa and a more inland heat low. Along with a decent monsoon trough to provide moist, cool (denser) surface westerlies to undercut and raise the dust.
Quoting 957. Grothar:

It is always heartbreaking to see people lose everything they have. That's why I wish all storms are fish this year.




Only this year?

Given the forecast by the NHC of additional storms, I am supposing most of the development will be close to home. Of thee opinion that the MDR will not necessarily be the focus of most development this year. Unfortunately, the likelihood of additional impacts by even weak storms seems high.
Quoting 840. Neapolitan:

ACE-wise, that may be true. But based strictly on just the number of tropical cyclones that form, we should see a busy second half, with an additional seven to 12 storms spinning up before it's all said and done. (FWIW, the former would mean a storm forming every 16 days, while the latter would mean one every 9.3 days. That should be enough to keep the folks here happy. I hope.)

At any rate, 'twas not me "going out on a limb" here; it's forecasters at the National Hurricane Center...


And?... This doesn't somehow negate the fact that you utilized relatively poor comparison wrt "normal" hurricane activity, given that the past 3 seasons altogether are within the bottom 15% wrt Atlantic TC activity in the past century & a half, saying that this year will be more active than those seasons alone doesn't actually lend much confidence for an active season overall. ACE & PDSI take into account storm intensity, longevity & number of storms whereas NS, H, & MH counts are strictly based upon number and strength of TCs with an appreciable amount of variance within the each category. In fact, NS, H, & MH counts alone suggests that the Atlantic is above normal atm, however the first 5 named storms of the season have accrued the least amount of named storm days since 1988 (10.5)... hardly indicative of an "active season", at least thus far...
000
AXNT20 KNHC 141132
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic with axis extending from
18N19W to 07N19W, moving west at 15 kt. The wave is in a moist
environment with good 700 mb signature.
Scattered moderate
convection is from 05N-14N between 16W-24W.

Well that's a first these waves were struggling because of that same 700 mb. layer being dry. PWAT's are also around 2.3-2.5 inches. I just wonder if it moves northwest into some cooler waters if it will make it. There must be some kind of ULL that is being predicted by the GFS to drop down from the north and cut into the path of this wave.

PWAT showing the moist environment:



700 mb. relative humidity shows what I'm talking about in regards to the ULL, resulting in drying out the environment behind it.



Not that hard to read the atmosphere in front of the wave. Strong ridge at the surface to the north and as a result ULL's aloft splitting off.
Quoting 961. Webberweather53:



And?... This doesn't somehow negate the fact that you utilized relatively poor comparison wrt "normal" hurricane activity, given that the past 3 seasons altogether are within the bottom 15% wrt Atlantic TC activity in the past century & a half, saying that this year will be more active than those seasons alone doesn't actually lend much confidence for an active season overall. ACE & PDSI take into account storm intensity, longevity & number of storms whereas NS, H, & MH counts are strictly based upon number and strength of TCs with an appreciable amount of variance within the each category. In fact, NS, H, & MH counts alone suggests that the Atlantic is above normal atm, however the first 5 named storms of the season have accrued the least amount of named storm days since 1988 (10.5)... hardly indicative of an "active season", at least thus far...
Nice try, but you seem to have missed the point. Again. To recap:

1) NOAA--you know, the place where the people with oodles of education and lots of degrees and tons of experience ply their trade--published a statement last week that 2016 will be the strongest season since 2012.

2) In response to someone predicting that the remainder of this season will be dead, I posted a screenshot of that NOAA statement sans commentary. (That means I added nothing else.)

3) You responded that I wasn't going out on much of a limb, and that global ACE had been so low the last several years that beating them would be easy.

4) I responded by telling you that prediction of the strongest season wasn't mine, but NOAA's

5) And you responded as above. Which shows us you're still missing the following points:

--I wasn't the one who made that statement; it was NOAA.

--I wasn't the one who "utilized relatively poor comparison wrt 'normal' hurricane activity". If anyone did so, it was NOAA.

--And NOAA didn't use a poor comparison (though folks here are certainly entitled to their own opinions, uninformed as they might be); if you'd taken the time to read the NOAA statement in-depth, you'd have seen that ACE is expected to be up to 150% of the long-term mean. Here:



...illustrating that the the term they used ("strongest season") isn't merely a comparison of "NS, H, & MH counts" as you erroneously claim, but rather incorporates, as always, ACE.

Bottom line, then: folks who disagree with either NOAA's statement or methodologies are welcome to complain here, but to effect change, they should probably take it up with them, rather than try to litigate it here.
The gfs model takes 98 to the north and maintainS a intensity of 1011 most of the time. The gfs shows a extremely robust wave coming off at 324, just something to watch.another strong wave follows it. 98l and the other waves may just be paving a path for the strong waves.
The euro does not develop 98l or the future 99l but then immediately develops a wave that had just gotten off the coast. This storm dies. 98l dissipates bur the future 99l is approaching the boiling water of the carribean. Gaston maybp be the first major hurricane of the season based on the euro.
Quoting 966. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:

The euro does not develop 98l or the future 99l but then immediately develops a wave that had just gotten off the coast. This storm dies. 98l dissipates bur the future 99l is approaching the boiling water of the carribean. Gaston maybp be the first major hurricane of the season based on the euro.