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Wet Week Ahead for Gulf Coast, Arizona Deserts

By: Bob Henson 8:02 PM GMT on August 08, 2016

With moist air predominant over much of the United States, several distinct areas of heavy rain will take aim on roadways, drainage systems, and people’s nerves over the coming week. The deluge has already begun across the central Gulf Coast, especially along the Florida coast from Tallahassee to Tampa, where totals of 3-6” were widespread from Sunday into Monday. These showers and thunderstorms are being fed by very high amounts of atmospheric moisture (more than 2” of precipitable water, the amount of water vapor in a column of air) across the southeastern U.S. The main trigger for development is a broad, weak mid-level low centered near the Florida Big Bend, together with an upper-level low off the east coast of Florida and a surface low over southern Alabama. This complex will trudge westward during the week, perhaps reaching Louisiana by around Friday.

The tilted structure of the low and its location near the coast will work against tropical development, but the slow movement will lead to prodigious rainfall totals. A broad swath of rains may total 7” to 15” by the end of the week along the central Gulf Coast (see Figure 1). Within this area, we’re bound to see localized weather features producing higher amounts--perhaps quite a bit higher--though the locations will be near-impossible to predict before the thunderstorms actually develop. We do know that the central Gulf Coast can get amazing amounts of rain in a short time when conditions are favorable. Historic flash floods were produced on April 29-30, 2014, as 10-15” of rain fell in less than 24 hours at both Mobile, AL, and Pensacola, FL. Pensacola racked up 20.47” in just 48 hours.


Figure 1. Total rainfall projected by NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center for the 7-day period from 8:00 am EDT Monday, August 8, 2016, to 8:00 am EDT Monday, August 15. Some localized amounts could exceed these projections by a considerable margin. Image credit: NOAA/NWS/WPC.

Big surge in the Southwest monsoon
Showers and thunderstorms typically increase across the U.S. Southwest during late July and August with the peak of the North American Monsoon, as streams of moisture head toward the region. Typically the low-level moisture arrives via the Gulf of California and the tropical East Pacific, with higher-level moisture imported from the Gulf of Mexico. As is often the case, this year’s monsoon has been sporadic and spotty, with pulses of heavy rain around the start of July followed by an extended monsoon “break” of more than two weeks. The action has picked up over the last few days, though. On Friday, August 5, the Phoenix area was socked by heavy rains and flash flooding. Close to 3” fell in Scottsdale in just three hours.


Figure 2. A burst of heavy rain falls across the Phoenix metro area on Friday, August 5, 2016. Photo credit: Bruce Haffner, courtesy NWS/Phoenix.

This week will bring additional potential for heavy Southwest rains, thanks in large part to a slug of moisture flowing up the Gulf of California around the east side of Tropical Storm Javier (see below). Precipitable water values may approach 1.75” - 2.00” in the Phoenix and Tucson areas, which would be among the highest levels on record for August. An upper-level trough extending unusually far south for August will also boost the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms packing high winds, especially on Wednesday. The juxtaposition of upper-level forcing with such rich moisture is quite unusual, suggesting that localized rainfall amounts--not everywhere, but in scattered locations--could be truly impressive. Scatered heavy rains may extend into parts of Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico by Thursday. Residents should take extra caution in areas of heavy rain and high water. The phrase “turn around, don’t drown” is especially apt in the U.S. Southwest, where dry creekbeds can quickly turn into raging torrents.

More soakings ahead for Upper Midwest
It’s been a soggy summer over much of the Midwest. Initial data from the forthcoming U.S. monthly climate summary (we’ll cover the full report on Thursday) show that last month ranked among the ten wettest Julys on record for Kentucky, Illinois, Missouri, Minnesota, and North Dakota. NOAA/WPC is projecting that showers and storms will drop widespread 2” - 4” rainfall amounts this week from eastern North Dakota to northern Minnesota and Wisconsin, as the potent-for-August upper-level trough mentioned above drags its way across the region.


Figure 3. Enhanced infrared satellite image of Tropical Storm Javier at 1930Z (2:30 pm EDT) Monday, August 8, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

From Earl to Javier
There are no areas of potential development being highlighted by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center today, but traces of last week’s Hurricane Earl have made it into the East Pacific. After Earl dissipated over the mountains of southern Mexico on Saturday, its westward-moving remnants fed into an area of disturbed weather south of Mexico. The result was Tropical Storm Javier, which sprang to life on Sunday. As of the 2:00 pm EDT Monday update from NHC, Javier was located about 55 miles southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, with top sustained winds of 50 mph. Javier appeared to be holding steady in strength based on data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter flight on Monday morning. Hurricane warnings have been dropped for parts of the Baja California coast, although tropical storm warnings remain in effect for both side of the peninsula south of about 25°N, with a tropical storm watch further north along the Pacific coast to Puerto San Andresito.

Javier is loosely organized, with its core of showers and thunderstorms pulsing and fading, and its northwestward path lies close enough to Baja California for some interference with its development. Javier does have some potential to strengthen over the next couple of days, as wind shear will be light (less than 10 knots) and the storm will be traveling over unusually warm waters (sea-surface temperatures of 26-28°C, about 1-2°C above average). From Wednesday onward, Javier will move over cooler waters (24-26°C). Together with land interaction, this should bring Javier below tropical storm strength. Models are in some disagreement on Javier’s path by later this week, but NHC projects Javier to continue northwestward, dissipating by Thursday. Javier’s remnants may flow into the Southwest U.S. by the weekend; before then, as noted above, the storm will be channeling moisture into the region.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Tropical Storm Ivette is on its last legs in the Central Pacific, where it is projected to dissipate amid high wind shear by Tuesday. In the Northwest Pacific, Tropical Depression Eight will gradually strengthen, perhaps becoming a typhoon late this week, while Tropical Depression Omais spins down east of Japan.

Bob Henson

Hurricane Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

updated

Heat Warning in effect for:
•City of Toronto

Humidex values reaching near 40 are expected.

Yet another heat wave on the way.

A hot and humid airmass will return from the United States beginning Tuesday afternoon, when afternoon temperatures are forecast to reach the low 30s. Humidex values will slowly rise to the mid 30s in most areas on Tuesday.

The air mass will become considerably more humid Tuesday night, which will keep overnight temperatures near 20 in most areas. Hot and humid conditions under partly to mostly sunny skies is expected Wednesday through Friday. Afternoon temperatures will reach the low to mid 30s, and early morning minimum temperatures may briefly reach the low 20s. The warm and muggy nights will not provide much of a break from the almost relentless heat, even in the odd location where temperatures may briefly dip to the upper teens shortly before sunrise.

Some relief from the daytime heat is possible in a few locales near the shorelines of the Great Lakes if a breeze off the lake develops.

Humidex values peaking in the upper thirties to low 40s are expected beginning Wednesday as well.

This may be the longest and most significant heat wave of the summer so far.

Latest indications suggest a weak cold front, along with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, may move through sometime Friday night. If this occurs as forecast, some relief from the heat and humidity will be expected in time for next weekend.

Frequently visit neighbours, friends and older family members, especially those who are chronically ill, to make sure that they are cool and hydrated.

Reschedule or plan outdoor activities during cooler parts of the day.

Never leave people or pets in your care inside a parked vehicle or in direct sunlight.

Prepare meals that don't need to be cooked in your oven.

Heat warnings are issued when very high temperature or humidity conditions are expected to pose an elevated risk of heat illnesses, such as heat stroke or heat exhaustion.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.
thanks for late afternoon update
Thanx for the update Mr. Henson...Will tally up the totals at the end of the week..
Elsewhere in the tropics
Tropical Storm Ivette is on its last legs in the Central Pacific, where it is projected to dissipate amid high wind shear by Tuesday. In the Northwest Pacific, Tropical Depression Eight will gradually strengthen, perhaps becoming a hurricane late this week, while Tropical Depression Omais spins down east of Japan.



hurricane ? dont you mean typhoon ?
Quoting 5. thetwilightzone:

Elsewhere in the tropics
Tropical Storm Ivette is on its last legs in the Central Pacific, where it is projected to dissipate amid high wind shear by Tuesday. In the Northwest Pacific, Tropical Depression Eight will gradually strengthen, perhaps becoming a hurricane late this week, while Tropical Depression Omais spins down east of Japan.



hurricane ? dont you mean typhoon ?


Yep indeed! Looks like I can't sneak anything past you all, can I? :-) Thanks for the catch...
Quoting 6. BobHenson:



Yep indeed! Looks like I can't sneak anything past you all, can I? :-) Thanks for the catch...


welcome
Quoting 6. BobHenson:



Yep indeed! Looks like I can't sneak anything past you all, can I? :-) Thanks for the catch...
Also you said Tropical storm Jimena instead of Javier when talking about the sw monsoon rains.
Thanks for the update, Bob!
Ehem, quoting: ".... a slug of moisture flowing up the Gulf of California around the east side of Tropical Storm Jimena (see below) ..." - it's Javier, no? Or did I miss something?
This week will bring additional potential for heavy Southwest rains, thanks in large part to a slug of moisture flowing up the Gulf of California around the east side of Tropical Storm Jimena (see below).


edit LOL triple catch
Thanks for the update. From the last blog :
Video - Storm Javier impacts Manzanillo (state of Colima), Mexico (via Twitter) / Aug. 7.
And the accumulated precipitation, a forecast from Monday 8, 5pm thru Wednesday 10, 12am.
Quoting 9. barbamz:

Thanks for the update, Bob!
Ehem, quoting: ".... a slug of moisture flowing up the Gulf of California around the east side of Tropical Storm Jimena (see below) ..." - it's Javier, no? Or did I miss something?


It's Javier's twin sister ;-)
Here in Covington County Alabama we were just put under a flash flood warning after a heavy thunderstorm with more on the way. I've received 3/4" in about 45 minutes while Opp, a town to my southeast, has received 3.3" in about 1 1/2 hours. Looks like a long week ahead and we probably won't be able to get out of the driveway before long.
Quoting 1. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

updated

Heat Warning in effect for:
•City of Toronto

Humidex values reaching near 40 are expected.

Yet another heat wave on the way.

A hot and humid airmass will return from the United States beginning Tuesday afternoon, when afternoon temperatures are forecast to reach the low 30s. Humidex values will slowly rise to the mid 30s in most areas on Tuesday.

The air mass will become considerably more humid Tuesday night, which will keep overnight temperatures near 20 in most areas. Hot and humid conditions under partly to mostly sunny skies is expected Wednesday through Friday. Afternoon temperatures will reach the low to mid 30s, and early morning minimum temperatures may briefly reach the low 20s. The warm and muggy nights will not provide much of a break from the almost relentless heat, even in the odd location where temperatures may briefly dip to the upper teens shortly before sunrise.

Some relief from the daytime heat is possible in a few locales near the shorelines of the Great Lakes if a breeze off the lake develops.

Humidex values peaking in the upper thirties to low 40s are expected beginning Wednesday as well.

This may be the longest and most significant heat wave of the summer so far.

Latest indications suggest a weak cold front, along with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, may move through sometime Friday night. If this occurs as forecast, some relief from the heat and humidity will be expected in time for next weekend.

Frequently visit neighbours, friends and older family members, especially those who are chronically ill, to make sure that they are cool and hydrated.

Reschedule or plan outdoor activities during cooler parts of the day.

Never leave people or pets in your care inside a parked vehicle or in direct sunlight.

Prepare meals that don't need to be cooked in your oven.

Heat warnings are issued when very high temperature or humidity conditions are expected to pose an elevated risk of heat illnesses, such as heat stroke or heat exhaustion.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.


Longest consecutive period above 70F at the Washington DC official station, Reagan National Airport. 34 days and counting. Previous was 32 days July 15-August 15, 1980
It's Javier, of course. Great work, all! Bonus points if you find anything else awry. Thanks for your forbearance--I'm in PDT for a couple of days and clearly rushed today's post a bit much.
Oddly, winds along the southern tip of Baja are currently from the northwest even though by satellite appearances, Javier is almost on top of them --- winds should already be easterly. Javier must have a small surface presence, or maybe it's turned toward the Gulf, or perhaps it has reverted to Earl's signature, a vigorous midlevel vortex.

No sign of a gulf surge yet at Yuma or Mexicali.
Quoting 14. georgevandenberghe:



Longest consecutive period above 70F at the Washington DC official station, Reagan National Airport. 34 days and counting. Previous was 32 days July 15-August 15, 1980


I am not sure on our total 90 degree days so far but I do know since living in Toronto Ontario its most I have seen in my time here and dry as well never seen so dry normally get a few rainy days during summer over a 2 week period
but this summer if its rain 5 times that's it since June
the ground is a hard compact almost white like and grass was completely gone but in the last week we have had 2 of our five wet days this summer and it green up a bit
but it will get cooked again the next 4 days or so even the trees are stressed some gold color starting too show since end of july and the last week or so falling even while still green weird
And so it begins, here in Mobile AL.
show that last month ranked among the ten wettest Julys on record for Kentucky

I can believe it. Last month the CoCoRaHS gauge logged nearly 8" of rain at my spot just north of Nashville. It's been an incredibly wet summer! The last few years have been wet. My younger childhood the grass would die early on, now it's still green and it's been so wet that we can't cut the grass! Yesterday was the first time in a while we could cut, seemed like the whole neighborhood cut their grass as well yesterday.

Then you visit a park and they're watering the grass and you have to wonder why they like wasting water so much...like that's money too. Grass doesn't need it, it just runs off.
Quoting 15. BobHenson:

It's Javier, of course. Great work, all! Bonus points if you find anything else awry. Thanks for your forbearance--I'm in PDT for a couple of days and clearly rushed today's post a bit much.


I think you do it on purpose to check we are reading it!
Quoting 17. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



I am not sure on our total 90 degree days so far but I do know since living in Toronto Ontario its most I have seen in my time here and dry as well never seen so dry normally get a few rainy days during summer over a 2 week period
but this summer if its rain 5 times that's it since June
the ground is a hard compact almost white like and grass was completely gone but in the last week we have had 2 of our five wet days this summer and it green up a bit
but it will get cooked again the next 4 days or so even the trees are stressed some gold color starting too show since end of july and the last week or so falling even while still green weird


DC has had timely and adequate rains all summer and I've not had to water my garden much. This is unusual. We usually dry out to the point corn and tomatoes wilt at least once during the summer most summers.

Summer isn't over and we could (e.g. 1995) turn very dry late.

Most local lawns are lush green here in Maryland though the ones that have crabgrass or are bermuda or zoysia are
greener and healthier looking than the fescue and bluegrass ones. THe latter become unthrifty in our heat even in moist years, then recover in fall. Some summers they go totally brown and dead but they are usually only dormant and the first rains of fall bring them back.
Technically you live in MD not D.C.
Earth atmo 2.0 has more water vapor today than anytime in the past human record.

Record pwats are now the new norm,globally.
Spfld, IL had 2nd wettest July, 9.51", which was 5.57" over avg. Follows 1891's 10.76" and just ahead of 2009's 9.46" & 2014's 9.45". 5 of top 10 in last 20 yrs. Really nice temps and dew pts this last weekend.
I spy a circulation just north of the Bahamas. All this convection pushing off the east coast of Florida might find its way over to that feature.
...meanwhile, here in Eastern Massachusetts severe drought continues (rain deficit is eight inches and counting). My lawn has been dead for two months, but at least I won't have to mow it again until sometime May of 2017. :-)
Nothing tropical but a train of systems for the northeast.
Quoting 24. Patrap:

Earth atmo 2.0 has more water vapor today than anytime in the past human record.
Record pwats are now the new norm,globally.

Parts of Norway could get August snow
Published: 08 Aug 2016 13:40 GMT+02:00
Quote from that article:
The Norwegian summer has been marked by cloud activity across the country. Bergen has reached a new precipitation record, and parts of Oslo measured 55 millimetres of rain within two hours over the past weekend, something that only occurs every 25 to 50 years.
Quoting 30. Gearsts:


Yeesh.Expect the cooling trend to continue then.
All that rain over the Gulf Coast will be perfect for breeding mosquitoes and Zika.
I think Javelina would be a great name for a tropical system. Hurricane Javelina has a good ring to it.
TS 08W (Eight) looks good now :

Forecast calls for gradual intensification up to typhoon status later this week (source : the blog entry, and the JTWC). Omais has found a follower (although much uncertainty remains, regarding the track of 08W after 3 days). NASA sees Tropical Storm Omais weakening near Japan - Phys.org, about 2 hours ago (click on the first image inside the article to get the full picture ; literally)
Spin was more prevalent this morning, but it looks like the old center that had been spit out onto Florida was heading north to Atlanta. Lol.

New Orleans International Airport:

Rainfall since January 01, 2016 : 46.57 inches. +6.76 inches above normal .

Rainfall for August 2016 : 3.01 inches. +1.50 inches above normal.
Quoting 34. BaltimoreBrian:

All that rain over the Gulf Coast will be perfect for breeding mosquitoes and Zika.

There Could Be Another Case of Zika in Florida
Alexandra Sifferlin, 3:58 PM ET

Yeah, good luck! Even in Germany a lot of folks got oddly stung with severe effects this wet summer (though no case of Zika - yet).

BTW, despite the fact that most Germans think their current summer wasn't that great, temps in July had been 1.7 degrees Celsius above normal (according to our National Weather Service DWD).


Temps in July in Germany. Source.
Quoting 28. Attirex:

...meanwhile, here in Eastern Massachusetts severe drought continues (rain deficit is eight inches and counting). My lawn has been dead for two months, but at least I won't have to mow it again until sometime May of 2017. :-)

It's pretty brutal. Some of the smart long range forecasters up here saw something like this coming, but it's still surprising to see our area this dry. Getting up there with some of the worst droughts we've seen. Worst since 2002 at least, and it's starting to creep past that locally. Some rivers, lakes, and reservoirs are starting to run dangerously low.
Quoting 35. BaltimoreBrian:

I think Javelina would be a great name for a tropical system. Hurricane Javelina has a good ring to it.


:)
Omais is dead! (5x)


TROPICAL STORM 07W (OMAIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 259 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
AND CONTINUE TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, WITH STRONGEST WINDS AND CONVECTION
REMAINING AROUND THE PERPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 24 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 08W (EIGHT) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.

Goodbye, Omais. Nice knowing ya.

But to be honest, I liked Omais better when it looked like this:

Why? Because it had a lot of DEEP CONVECTION!!!!
2020 Hurricane names.


Bp
Chevron
Mobil
Exxon

Evening all, after a day of prodigious heat in Nassau. The only saving grace was the easterly flow that kept air from stagnating.

Meanwhile, to the east,

Death toll from Earl in Mexico is now at least at 45 :-(
Al menos 45 muertos tras paso de la tormenta Earl en México
La principal causa de las muertes son deslaves en Puebla y Veracruz
Última modificacion: Lunes, 8 de agosto de 2016 a las 5:01 PM
Quoting 30. Gearsts:



Things look relatively quiet most of the month with upward motion focused in the West Pacific. The last week of August into September looks more favorable as the downward MJO overspreads the Pacific and the MJO returns to the Indian Ocean.
Quoting 47. TropicalAnalystwx13:


...The last week of August into September looks more favorable as the downward MJO overspreads the Pacific and the MJO returns to the Indian Ocean.

Although probably supressed by the lack of MJO, there is currently another very northern wave of moisture active in the Sahara:




(saved loop)
Quoting 34. BaltimoreBrian:

All that rain over the Gulf Coast will be perfect for breeding mosquitoes and Zika.
Sad but true ...
:-(
Quoting 46. barbamz:

Death toll from Earl in Mexico is now at least at 45 :-(
Al menos 45 muertos tras paso de la tormenta Earl en México
La principal causa de las muertes son deslaves en Puebla y Veracruz
Última modificacion: Lunes, 8 de agosto de 2016 a las 5:01 PM
:-(
Those mudslides are what caused Mitch to have such a high death toll.... now happening with Earl in Mexico... sad.
Will we ever see Ian is the question.
Quoting 41. Astrometeor:



:)

Hi Astro!
Did you read how hot it is in Toronto?
It's so hot, the cows are giving evaporated milk!

Get it??? I know you're an expert on cows so I thought you'd like that!
HaHaHaHa !!!!
Quoting 33. washingtonian115:

Yeesh.Expect the cooling trend to continue then.


Nightmare :\
Quoting 47. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Things look relatively quiet most of the month with upward motion focused in the West Pacific. The last week of August into September looks more favorable as the downward MJO overspreads the Pacific and the MJO returns to the Indian Ocean.
Would be something for sure if we can get the MJO over the Atlantic on peak season.
Quoting 50. washingtonian115:

Will we ever see Ian is the question.


Let me forward this to Kori. See how much of a rant he comes back with.

:(
Update on Siberia, where months of heat triggered the outbreak of deadly Anthrax invections:

August 08, 2016
Anthrax in Siberia: Herders preparing to return to tundra
Via the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Region government website: The family of reindeer herders return to the tundra. On clean pastures Yamal district organized exit through sanitary inspection.

Tundra ablaze as reindeer carcasses infected with deadly anthrax are incinerated
By The Siberian Times reporter, 05 August 2016


Tundra ablaze as reindeer carcasses infected with deadly anthrax are incinerated. Picture: Press Service of Yamalo-Nenetsk Governor's Office
Quoting 48. barbamz:


Although probably supressed by the lack of MJO, there is currently another very northern wave of moisture active in the Sahara:




(saved loop)
I was noticing that the 3 Twaves currently transversing the ATL are all up between 10 and 20N .... big difference from even 2 weeks ago....
www.co2.earth

Atmospheric CO2

July 2016

404.39
parts per million (ppm)

Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii (NOAA-ESRL)

Preliminary data released August 5, 2016
Quoting 50. washingtonian115:

Will we ever see Ian is the question.
I'd say yes, and likely in the heart of the season climax, which could mean it would be a"dreaded I storm" ....
Isn't that forecaster named Ian?
Levi Cowan
‏@TropicalTidbits
10-16 day forecasts of global Walker Cells suggest that Atlantic will struggle to produce TCs for the rest of August
Quoting 58. BahaHurican:

I'd say yes, and likely in the heart of the season climax, which could mean it would be a"dreaded I storm" ....
Isn't that forecaster named Ian?
Yes we have a local forecaster named Ian who works for CWG.We all joke about it with him and he just hopes the storm isn't a trash system.His words not mine.
Ian Livingston ‏@islivingston Aug 3
I swear I've been looking forward to this since they added the name to the list. My moment.
Ian Livingston ‏@islivingston Aug 3
Get ready for some terrible Twitter from me when Ian is around.
Deluge for some, drought for others:

The drought no one is talking about in the southeastern United States
Capital Weather Gang, By John Hopewell August 8 at 1:52 PM
Crops are wilting in the fields in several states in the southeastern United States from an extreme drought that has crept up under the radar of most people living outside the region.
Farmers in northern Georgia, northeast Alabama, southeast Tennessee, western North Carolina and northwestern South Carolina are desperate for rain as harvest time nears. Combined with above average heat this summer, the corn crop in numerous counties has already been wiped out.
From April 1 to July 31, Chattanooga, Tenn., had only received 61 percent of its normal rainfall, a deficit of over 6.5 inches. August has started off dry in the Scenic City with a meager 0.09 inches in the first week. And throwing gas on the fire, the June and July average temperature was roughly 4 degrees warmer than normal. ...


Drought conditions worsen in Quebec and Ontario
Stephen Balena Updated 7 hrs ago

California plans to log its drought-killed trees
Cutting down dead trees may not reduce wildfire risk.
Jane Braxton Little Aug. 8, 2016

175,000 lose their jobs due to drought in Morocco
August 8, 2016 at 10:00 am | Published in: Africa, Morocco, News

South Africa's new black farmers wilt in drought
By Staff Reporter on 8th August 2016

Good night from Germany which will experience a little cold spell for the next three days ...
Quoting 60. washingtonian115:

Yes we have a local forecaster named Ian who works for CWG.We all joke about it with him and he just hopes the storm isn't a trash system.His words not mine.
Ian Livingston ‏@islivingston Aug 3
I swear I've been looking forward to this since they added the name to the list. My moment.
Ian Livingston ‏@islivingston Aug 3
Get ready for some terrible Twitter from me when Ian is around.
Well, we did have Ike while our blogger Ike was a regular... it made for some good jokes until the storm actually formed....

I'm wondering how useful a crockpot would be on generator power....
Quoting 36. 999Ai2016:

TS 08W (Eight) looks good now :

Forecast calls for gradual intensification up to typhoon status later this week (source : the blog entry, and the JTWC). Omais has found a follower (although much uncertainty remains, regarding the track of 08W after 3 days). NASA sees Tropical Storm Omais weakening near Japan - Phys.org, about 2 hours ago (click on the first image inside the article to get the full picture ; literally)


its getting shear a little lol how can that be good ?
Quoting 59. Gearsts:

Levi Cowan
‏@TropicalTidbits
10-16 day forecasts of global Walker Cells suggest that Atlantic will struggle to produce TCs for the rest of August



then that the case good look in getting too 15 too 17 named storms this season


has i been saying i think 10 may be are lucky # with no major hurricane this season
Quoting 59. Gearsts:

Levi Cowan
‏@TropicalTidbits
10-16 day forecasts of global Walker Cells suggest that Atlantic will struggle to produce TCs for the rest of August


By struggle I assume you mean it will have trouble producing them?
Guess someone thought the blog comments count was too low...

Quoting 58. BahaHurican:

I'd say yes, and likely in the heart of the season climax, which could mean it would be a"dreaded I storm" ....
Isn't that forecaster named Ian?
Even for a while now to me, Ian has also sounded like it will come in September, it seemed to have that vibe to it.
dear mods would you please get this little troll off the blogs
Lord have mercy....
You must make mommy and daddy so proud! You go, Champ.



Ima guess you ain't been in too many fights lol.
What is with this Troll get him off this blog please don't need all that on here
Oh dear! What is wrong with that character?
Quoting 85. washingtonian115:

Lord have mercy....
Probably some 8-year old.
Hi all, just ran across this blogger entry from Belize about her experience during hurricane Earl, thought it might be of interest
Link
Steady.....chief'



Just joined, whats goi- oh boy :/
Quoting 63. BahaHurican:

I'm wondering how useful a crockpot would be on generator power....


Not sure about a crock pot but an electric fry pan works great.
Quoting 46. barbamz:

Death toll from Earl in Mexico is now at least at 45 :-(
Al menos 45 muertos tras paso de la tormenta Earl en México
La principal causa de las muertes son deslaves en Puebla y Veracruz
Última modificacion: Lunes, 8 de agosto de 2016 a las 5:01 PM
Sad to hear it is still rising, last time I heard mention of it, it was still in the 30s.
Anything but a Cajun jambalaya MRE.


Those cannot be sustanace for anyone save for the skittles included.

I'm more a poultry MRE connoisseur.



👍
It's seems strange that at this time of year an area of disturbed weather this large and persistent over the GOM has zero chance to spin up. But I'm not betting against the NHC.
Use your color coded buttons Wu members.
The goober wont be around long.
WeatherBlog
This slow moving Gom system has the potential to drop beaucoup water quickly in some areas.

Take precautions if you have to now.

It is going to be a extended event.



Just got a little 7 minute rain shower here... gift of the ULL, I guess.
Quoting 34. BaltimoreBrian:

All that rain over the Gulf Coast will be perfect for breeding mosquitoes and Zika.
Tell me about it, they will have plenty of areas for that with that rain, from the decently flooded areas to the tiny ponds on the street and sidewalks.
The system now takes up half the Gom in area.





Quoting 108. Patrap:

This slow moving Gom system has the potential to drop beaucoup water quickly in some areas.

Take precautions if you have to now.

It is going to be a extended event.





Bring it on, my garden needs the rain
Flagged, flagged, flagged and flagged.
The ULL giveth some rain to you eh baha?

They can be stingy.

Watching this complex swirling Sw around this surface low inland to our east tonight.



Quoting 24. Patrap:

Earth atmo 2.0 has more water vapor today than anytime in the past human record.

Record pwats are now the new norm,globally.
Please send some my way.
Quoting 85. washingtonian115:

Lord have mercy....
And it's only August 8 ....

Quoting 93. downdabayou:



Not sure about a crock pot but an electric fry pan works great.
Was thinking that as long as the generator is going anyway, the crockpot could be cooking and / or keeping stuff warm.... dunno how much of a drain on the generator it would be, though.....
Quoting 99. Patrap:

Anything but a Cajun jambalaya MRE.


Those cannot be sustanace for anyone save for the skittles included.

I'm more a poultry MRE connoisseur.



👍
We tend to lean towards the tinned stuff, but I know not everyone goes for that.... not surprised that jambalaya mre doesn't work out....
Quoting 117. Bucsboltsfan:

Flagged, flagged, flagged and flagged.
Keep on flagging, don't stop, no .....
Quoting 118. Patrap:

The ULL giveth some rain to you eh baha?

They can be stingy.

Watching this complex swirling Sw around this surface low inland to our east tonight.




That is moving such a big chunk of atmosphere, we're getting fringe effects...
:-)
123. Tcwx2
See, I go for 30 minutes and I miss everything!!! What happened? Another useless troll?
Quoting 85. washingtonian115:

Lord have mercy....
It sure is baha.

Been very tropical here for the last week.

Quoting 123. Tcwx2:

See, I go for 30 minutes and I miss everything!!! What happened? Another useless troll?
Boring one at that.

Big news is this upper - lower spinning thingy seems to be expanding its aerial coverage.....
:-)
126. Tcwx2
Lol sure....
Quoting 125. BahaHurican:

Boring one at that.

Big news is this upper - lower spinning thingy seems to be expanding its aerial coverage.....
:-)
The whole ULL is to move west slowly.

Quoting 127. Patrap:

The whole ULL is to move west slowly.


Looks like ECFL is still not getting a lot of rain from this...
This Week in Hurricane History via HurricaneCity
1969: Camille is born on the 14th in the Caribbean.
1976: Belle hits Outer Banks & north to Massachusetts area as a cat 1 as a very small hurricane killing 6 on Aug 9th.
2004, Aug. 9th: TD #3 is born SE of Grenada & would later hit SW Florida as a cat 4. On the 13th Hurricane Charley hits Port Charlotte, Florida with 145 mph winds causing very heavy damage.
2012: Hurricane Ernesto hits the southern Yucatan peninsula with 80mph winds on Aug 8th
Quoting 113. Climate175:

Tell me about it, they will have plenty of areas for that with that rain, from the decently flooded areas to the tiny ponds on the street and sidewalks.

posted a comment about the pending mosquito explosion about a week ago, plenty of standing water and august heat. it will be a plague in the south only a frost/freeze will stop it and that is simply to far away. zika not only causes birth defects, it is pretty tough on those with weakened immune systems
It wouldn't be good for this juicy long lasting low to soak the ground and a Hurricane come behind it.
Does anybody think that any of that rain in the GOM will be headed to TX? I know you can't say with certainty but we live in the Port Lavaca area and desperately need rain. Thanks in advance and thank all of you for helping those of us who know nothing!
Quoting 59. Gearsts:

Levi Cowan
‏@TropicalTidbits
10-16 day forecasts of global Walker Cells suggest that Atlantic will struggle to produce TCs for the rest of August
Looking into the effect of Walker Cells. Basically the tradewinds are too strong causing too fast of movement of possible cyclones. Once forward movent slows of AOIs in a few weeks, we should see more development
Quoting 136. linkays:

Does anybody think that any of that rain in the GOM will be headed to TX? I know you can't say with certainty but we live in the Port Arthur area and desperately need rain. Thanks in advance and thank all of you for helping those of us who know nothing!
The forecast is calling for this system to drift west... dunno if it will make it as far west as Port Arthur, though....
Quoting 137. unknowncomic:

Looking into the effect of Walker Cells. Basically the tradewinds are too strong causing too fast of movement of possible cyclones. Once forward movent slows of AOIs in a few weeks, we should see more development
This is the story of the season ....
2.75 yesterday, 3.5 today. 2 day total 6.25. Ground is more than saturated now.
If that low had feet, it could stick its toes in the GOM.
142. beell
Fairly unusual, slow-moving pattern over the southeast US.

A broad low level circulation covering much of the southeast.


18Z GFS 850 mb heights, winds, vort-valid @ 00Z Tuesday.

An upper level high pressure cell covering most of the same area. An ULAC atop a low level center...hmm...that sounds familiar... Flanked by an ULL to the east-providing good divergence over Apalachicola (at present) and a narrow upper trough or shear axis over eastern Texas...pumping the ridge (and perhaps a touch of subsident upper flow via convergence)...And a weak surface low bouncing around in there somewhere.


18Z GFS 250 mb streamline and MSLP-valid @ 00Z Tuesday
Upper level trough axes indicated by black dashed lines

And a recent water vapor loop and single frame capture just for fun.





I would forecast rain...
Quoting 142. beell:

Fairly unusual, slow-moving pattern over the southeast US.

A broad low level circulation covering much of the southeast.


18Z GFS 850 mb heights, winds, vort-valid @ 00Z Tuesday.

An upper level high pressure cell covering most of the same area. An ULAC atop a low level center...hmm...that sounds familiar... Flanked by an ULL to the east-providing good divergence over Apalachicola (at present) and a narrow upper trough or shear axis over eastern Texas...pumping the ridge...And a weak surface low bouncing around in there somewhere.


18Z GFS 250 mb streamline and MSLP-valid @ 00Z Tuesday
Upper level trough axes indicated by black dashed lines

And a recent water vapor loop and single frame capture just for fun.





I would forecast rain...



I'm prepared tonight,thanx

Strongest winds of the event and lowest pressures on the buoy 115 SSE of Pensacola. 42039
Dear Justmehouston:

This from FuelFix.com:


Texas electricity consumption breaks record in Monday%u2019s heat

Posted by Jordan Blum

Date: August 08, 2016

The Texas electric grid set a new record Monday for the most power consumed at any given time in the state.

Peak demand exceeded 70,000 megawatts Monday for the first time, surpassing the Aug. 10, 2015 record of 69,877 megawatts, according to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which manages nearly 90 percent of the state%u2019s power load.

Use peaked at 70,169 megawatts after 4 p.m. One megawatt can typically power 200 homes on the hottest Texas days.

RELATED: Electric plants gobble natural gas at record pace

%u201CThe system has performed well so far through this early August heat wave,%u201D said Dan Woodfin, director of ERCOT system operations. %u201CWe had sufficient generation available today, including more than 5,000 megawatts of wind generation over peak, and we hope to see those conditions continue during the week ahead.%u201D

Last August, a string of days of 100-degree heat beat the 2011 record, and ERCOT issued a series of conservation alerts asking consumers to reduce their power use when possible.

ERCOT warned on Monday that temperatures are expected to hover near 100 degrees for much of this week, so the record could be broken as soon as Tuesday.


Note last sentence, how ominous that sounds. If the record is broken, what then? Conservation alerts that drag on for days? Level 1 alerts? Rolling blackouts? Anybody have an idea?
Quoting 138. BahaHurican:

The forecast is calling for this system to drift west... dunno if it will make it as far west as Port Arthur, though....


Might get some moisture from it, but I don't know about anything else, though.
Trying... SE of Pensacola.
Currently 85.2F with a 92F heat index



Only a gust front left of that storm ......


May bloom some convection over the lake.


What's Lake Pontchartrain's temperature? Never mind, found it. wow.
Looking at some of the pics from Earl's aftermath in Belize, and it seems the cays took some serious storm surge damage. I hope seafront businesses there have good insurance...
Looks like we have 2-3 weeks of boredom coming up in the Atlantic. Be prepared for the tropical depression to set in.
Here east of me the water temp is warmer than the current air temp.

. Air Temperature (ATMP): 85.5 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 88.3

Quoting 137. unknowncomic:

Looking into the effect of Walker Cells. Basically the tradewinds are too strong causing too fast of movement of possible cyclones. Once forward movent slows of AOIs in a few weeks, we should see more development
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 7 hhace 7 horas Moraga, CA
In 1998, Atlantic had 0 hurricanes thru Aug. 21. Yet the season still ended up with a whopping 10 overall hurricanes
Quoting 128. BahaHurican:

Looks like ECFL is still not getting a lot of rain from this...


I saw a good slug of heavy rain on the East (and West) Coast of FL today. The rain in between was pretty spotty and over the last 4 days or so, we've had less than 1" of rain. One thing I will say, is that after the hottest July on record, the drop in temperatures has been VERY noticeable and welcomed. July was just too much.

I'm not at all wishing for disaster or misfortune, but I am really looking forward to the next time we have an interesting/exciting weather event here. There has been a lack of such in recent years at my location. I guess if one counts record heat and dryness as interesting and exciting (I don't), we did just have July.
Quoting 151. HurricaneFan:

Looks like we have 2-3 weeks of boredom coming up in the Atlantic. Be prepared for the tropical depression to set in.
It's a good time to do some knowledge building by reading.... so as to improve your understanding and skill.....
Quoting 151. HurricaneFan:

Looks like we have 2-3 weeks of boredom coming up in the Atlantic. Be prepared for the tropical depression to set in.


In a few days a CCKW is forecast to pass through the Caribbean, along with favourable upward motion associated with the MJO. Could help enhance convection in the Caribbean and might be the reason the HWRF was showing a tropcial storm forming in the Eastern Caribbean. Whilst I don't think that's likely, we could see some enhanced convection and perhaps a disturbance from a TW if the MJO/CCKW forecasts are right.
159. beell
@ Pat/143.
I keep giggle-snorting everytime I scroll past that pic...
the goodle days.
Good times fer sure beell..

Quoting 58. BahaHurican:

I'd say yes, and likely in the heart of the season climax, which could mean it would be a"dreaded I storm" ....
Isn't that forecaster named Ian?
For some reason I got a feeling Ian is going to be the big storm that uses the Heat south of Cuba to it's advantage. Don't know if it's the Curse of the I storm or what,but it just seems likely.
As long as no significant low pressure centers enter the region between 35N: 75W and 40N: 70W that box, any hurricanes that do develop in September and threaten the East Coast will have plenty of heat potential energy available and could remain completely tropical through landfall over Southern New England. AS long as the drought continues here in eastern MA, the temperatures will remain in the lower 80s and warm the ocean adjacent of SNE and NJ.
I still feel like it is likely that more than half of the ACE this year will be in the second half of the season. October could be very interesting since the Caribbean is much more favorable this year than recent years. Both 2014 and 2015 had their strongest storms in October. This was also the case in 2005 and 2012; I think we may see some late season activity this year like we typically see in post El Niño seasons.
Anyone near the coast from St. Petersburg to Crystal River Fl. should take heed of an approaching line of storms.
I find the MJO very puzzling. Does anyone have an explanation why the Atlantic seems to always have sinking air, but the Pacific has had rising air? The enhanced MJO phase sat in the EPAC for nearly a month, and now it is expected to do the same in the WPAC. Yet the Atlantic only had a few days of rising motion.

Also, I have never heard a cyclone "dissipating due to sinking air." Does sinking air only suppress cyclogenesis but not play much role in cyclones that have already formed?
Quoting 157. Envoirment:



In a few days a CCKW is forecast to pass through the Caribbean, along with favourable upward motion associated with the MJO. Could help enhance convection in the Caribbean and might be the reason the HWRF was showing a tropcial storm forming in the Eastern Caribbean. Whilst I don't think that's likely, we could see some enhanced convection and perhaps a disturbance from a TW if the MJO/CCKW forecasts are right.


Yes. This year seems to be different regarding the Caribbean as opposed to the past few years. Low shear, moderate Water Vapor content, decent vertical instability, and little SAL. Just need the upward phase of MJO, CCKV, and lowering of the pressures would be nice.
Quoting 166. HurricaneFan:

I find the MJO very puzzling. Does anyone have an explanation why the Atlantic seems to always have sinking air, but the Pacific has had rising air? The enhanced MJO phase sat in the EPAC for nearly a month, and now it is expected to do the same in the WPAC. Yet the Atlantic only had a few days of rising motion.

Also, I have never heard a cyclone "dissipating due to sinking air." Does sinking air only suppress cyclogenesis but not play much role in cyclones that have already formed?


Interesting note of the downward phase MJO sticking in our area. Anybody care to offer some explanation?
Quoting 166. HurricaneFan:

I find the MJO very puzzling. Does anyone have an explanation why the Atlantic seems to always have sinking air, but the Pacific has had rising air? The enhanced MJO phase sat in the EPAC for nearly a month, and now it is expected to do the same in the WPAC. Yet the Atlantic only had a few days of rising motion.

Also, I have never heard a cyclone "dissipating due to sinking air." Does sinking air only suppress cyclogenesis but not play much role in cyclones that have already formed?
Very warm Epac doesn't help.
Is anybody else concerned about the ramifications for storms later on this summer if nothing happens this August?
While the models show a negative NAO phase, the atmosphere this summer has been for a +NAO phase instead, ridging over the eastern US and no troughs.
Quoting 163. unknowncomic:





Fantasy land.
Quoting 169. Gearsts:

Very warm Epac doesn't help.


I offer this map to disagree. In the sense that the Pacific is finally cooling down (we think)


And this
Quoting 157. Envoirment:



In a few days a CCKW is forecast to pass through the Caribbean, along with favourable upward motion associated with the MJO. Could help enhance convection in the Caribbean and might be the reason the HWRF was showing a tropcial storm forming in the Eastern Caribbean. Whilst I don't think that's likely, we could see some enhanced convection and perhaps a disturbance from a TW if the MJO/CCKW forecasts are right.


HWRF showing only Pacific storms now.
Anyone else notice the large volume of water above 30C northeast of the Bahamas that stretches from 70W to 60W longitude along the 28N latitude line? This volume of water supports a hurricane with a pressure <880mb.
Like quite a few persons on the blog, I am a little confused as to how the MJO and CCKWs actually work. From what I originally thought or read, they propogate in one direction over a certain time period no matter what. Now it seems the what I mostly hear is the MJO is stuck in one basin, namely the Pacific and hardly seems to make it over to the ATL. When it does, it's there usually less than a week, in a weak form and then it peels off into the Pacific again. CCKWs I get a bit more but their effect seems to be quite limp in this basin as well. Seems like the MJO doesn't create conditions of rising or sinking air, but the MJO can be said to be wherever rising air is. Colour me totally bamboozaled.
Quoting 175. TheDawnAwakening:

Anyone else notice the large volume of water above 30C northeast of the Bahamas that stretches from 70W to 60W longitude along the 28N latitude line? This volume of water supports a hurricane with a pressure <880mb.
Joaquin.
Quoting 173. yankees440:



I offer this map to disagree. In the sense that the Pacific is finally cooling down (we think)


And this

That map proves my point more than yours. Is warm where it matter and where TC develop.

Looks like more rain before dawn. Lots of thunder.
Quoting 156. BahaHurican:

It's a good time to do some knowledge building by reading.... so as to improve your understanding and skill.....

Good idea
I'll have to watch the meteor shower on the webcast... Doesn't get dark enough here and I would have to definitely move away from all the city lights to get down to hopefully astronomical twilight. Unless it is a bright meteor shower, I won't see it. :(

Quoting 133. Patrap:




Whoa! Look at the Gulf of Mexico's TCHP values between the 6th and 7th of August. The change is extraordinary!
There were a lot of fires starting around my house yesterday (natural and unnatural) and the air temperature was like 37C. Which is 5 C warmer than Patricia's eye temperature. (37C = 100F)
Hurricane Earl causes huge losses to Belize ag
8/8/16 - Hurricane Earl has caused losses of over $100 million to Belize's agriculture, according to Jose Alpuche, Chief Executive Officer in the Ministry of Agriculture.

Some bad and good news from Africa:

Decline of fishing in Lake Tanganyika 'due to warming'
By Matt McGrath Environment correspondent, 8 August 2016

Farmers are breeding catfish in "home dams" that capture rainwater, helping them cope with water scarcity
MBEERE, Kenya, Aug 9 (Thomson Reuters Foundation) By Isaiah Esipisu

Eritrea: Rainy Season in Promising Situation Nationwide

Sudan: Villages Washed Away in South Darfur

Sudan: Rains in Sudan Leave At Least 17 Dead

Nigeria: 11 States to Experience Flood in August, Says NiMet
In a statement made available to the media in Abuja, the agency said the soil moisture in these states have reached saturation level because of the cumulative high rainfall intensity in the last two months.
good morning not much convection but there seems to be some spin. the area right on top of the ne windwards might have to keep an eye on it
188. red0
Dustcane?

Shear is way down Bahamas and areas north and east. Shear changed dramatically in last 24 hours.Link

Quoting 187. islander101010:

good morning not much convection but there seems to be some spin. the area right on top of the ne windwards might have to keep an eye on it
intense flood videos coming out of mexico due to earl. i really like the one from veracruz showing the waterfalls
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/rb-animated. gif

the three bears?
Quoting 181. BaltimoreBrian:

The Perseid meteor shower could be twice as awesome this year. Here's how to watch. (with video)


[...]
Interesting aside on the Perseids: it occurs when the Earth's orbit crosses through the orbital path of Comet Swift-Tuttle, the largest known Earth-crossing comet. The precise orbit of Swift-Tuttle was not calculated until its last closest approach in 1992. For history and orbital calculations see "The Past and future motion of Comet P/Swift-Tuttle", Royal Astron. Soc, full paper available here: http://articles.adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-iar ticle_query?bibcode=1994MNRAS.266..305Y
Quoting 184. AldreteMichael:



Whoa! Look at the Gulf of Mexico's TCHP values between the 6th and 7th of August. The change is extraordinary!

The last image in that loop is not correct. Just an FYI.
Good morning all. We had a dramatic midnight to dawn here, with several rounds of thunderstorms that knocked out power at least 3 times. Nevertheless, when I looked out just now, the ground was nearly dry.... it's overcast and still now. I have to admit I didn't expect that much rain from this system in our area....
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
559 AM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078- 079-101100-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-B UTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-MOBILE INLAND-BALDWIN INLAND-MOBILE CENTRAL-
BALDWIN CENTRAL-MOBILE COASTAL-BALDWIN COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-
ESCAMBIA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
559 AM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
POOR DRAINAGE. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

A MODERATE RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
GULF BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS...AND PROLIFIC LIGHTNING.

THERE ARE INCREASING SIGNS THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING VERY
HEAVY TO POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THE MOST FAVORED
LOCATION FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84...THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. HEAVY RAINS COULD BRING AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING AND AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING
LATER THIS WEEK. STAY TUNED FOR LATER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION.

A MODERATE RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
GULF BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$
'Morning, about a month and a half left for the "major hurricane" season here in TX, and we are done....DONE.
Quoting 180. BaltimoreBrian:

Washington D.C.'s temperature has not fallen below 70 degrees for a record 34 days and counting

The streak may break tonight. But if it doesn't it could go quite a while longer.

Well. Holland is experiencing it's hottest summer (to date) - by average minimum temps.
When will this rain stop?? Lol. We've gotten a foot in the past few days and it doesn't look like it'll slack up anytime soon
nice bow echo headed to pinellas county
Quoting 197. cRRKampen:


Well. Holland is experiencing it's hottest summer (to date) - by average minimum temps.

The city i live in (Funchal) is getting a lot of fires and sunny weather (well the fires make the air quality so bad i have to use oxygen masks... why) and it's less than 1C from breaking the record. It will probably break the record today.
Quoting 198. JrWeathermanFL:

When will this rain stop?? Lol. We've gotten a foot in the past few days and it doesn't look like it'll slack up anytime soon


lol

1st you guys want the rain then when the rain hits you want it to stop
Quoting 198. JrWeathermanFL:

When will this rain stop?? Lol. We've gotten a foot in the past few days and it doesn't look like it'll slack up anytime soon


lol

1st you guys want the rain then when the rain hits you want it to stop
How many circulations can you find?
Quoting 204. Sfloridacat5:

How many circulations can you find?

Need at least 2 hours of sunlight to check visible satellite.
Quoting 185. NunoLava1998:

There were a lot of fires starting around my house yesterday (natural and unnatural) and the air temperature was like 37C. Which is 5 C warmer than Patricia's eye temperature. (37C = 100F)

37 graus C = 98.6 graus F
Good morning, checking in over here in Orange Bch , Al Was curious as to when this low is supposed to track back west? they keep warning us for floods, but until i see the High in the Atl kick it over it looks like the panhandle is for a drenching. thanks for all the input guys.
Quoting 200. NunoLava1998:


The city i live in (Funchal) is getting a lot of fires and sunny weather (well the fires make the air quality so bad i have to use oxygen masks... why) and it's less than 1C from breaking the record. It will probably break the record today.

Por quanto tempo h vivido em Funchal? Conhee a famlia do Cristiano Renaldo? Este sbado, vou viajar a Lisboa. Estarei ali por duas semanas.
Quoting 208. ACSeattle:


Por quanto tempo h� vivido em Funchal? Conhe�e a fam�lia do Cristiano Renaldo? Este s�bado, vou viajar a Lisboa. Estarei ali por duas semanas.

Quoting 180. BaltimoreBrian:

Washington D.C.'s temperature has not fallen below 70 degrees for a record 34 days and counting

The streak may break tonight. But if it doesn't it could go quite a while longer.


Philadelphia set a similar 70+ streak record mid June to mid July 2013.

DC metro hottest summer was 2010 and we won't come close this summer unless August temp forecasts are way off and we have an unprecedented heat wave. It does look ugly for the next seven to ten days with low to mid 90s for highs, low to mid 70s for lows and a weak cap to kill most convection but that is a common summer setup here in the Mid Atlantic.
Quoting 207. Nolehead:

Good morning, checking in over here in Orange Bch , Al Was curious as to when this low is supposed to track back west? they keep warning us for floods, but until i see the High in the Atl kick it over it looks like the panhandle is for a drenching. thanks for all the input guys.

Supposed to start over here to your east, at about 2:00 this afternoon..
Quoting 205. victoria780:

Need at least 2 hours of sunlight to check visible satellite.


As always as many as you 'think' there are ^___^
Quoting 212. George1938:



As always as many as you 'think' there are ^___^


Naturally I messed this up, they were asking how many circulations you could pick out in the Gulf on radar.
Big waves over Africa

215. MahFL
Horseshoe Beach in the Big Bend has had 5.4in of rain so far today.
having a big upper mid level feature slowly retrograding west makes the se coast more vulnerable to a landfalling cv system. watching the african wave.
217. MahFL
Looks like the MJO is back :

Quoting 214. bigwes6844:

Big waves over Africa


Some will clear the way a bit and some will get the Pacman treatment.
220. MahFL
18Z MJO is neutral over the W Atlantic basin if you believe the GFS:

221. IDTH
Good morning, I've been noticing this increasing cooling area in the GOM.




JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 155. HurrMichaelOrl:



I saw a good slug of heavy rain on the East (and West) Coast of FL today. The rain in between was pretty spotty and over the last 4 days or so, we've had less than 1" of rain. One thing I will say, is that after the hottest July on record, the drop in temperatures has been VERY noticeable and welcomed. July was just too much.

I'm not at all wishing for disaster or misfortune, but I am really looking forward to the next time we have an interesting/exciting weather event here. There has been a lack of such in recent years at my location. I guess if one counts record heat and dryness as interesting and exciting (I don't), we did just have July.



The heavy rain train continues here today in Pinellas, it feels just like outer bands of a tropical system with not as strong of winds, which makes sense given very deep tropical moisture, and warm air through the column. We had 2.3 yesterday and 1.04 Sunday, and it looks like we may have training situation trying to setup here today, so we could get much more today if that happens.

Thankfully the west coast of FL has been lucky that a training situation hasn't happened, or rainfall totals could have been much worse. Otherwise though, the rainfall forecast has been amazingly accurate, especially given that rainfall forecasting is already hard, but this sharp gradient near the coast was well depicted.

If you noticed, there are rainfall totals of 20 to 30 inches offshore, if the cutoff low had formed over the interior, those totals could have been over the Tampa Bay area, which would have been insane. It's subtle differences like that keep our luck going around here. People don't realize if things were a little different, this could have been a major flood disaster in Central and North FL.

Part of what also blocked as from not getting as much was the upper low to the east, which disrupted and blocked the low's convergence and upper support from progressing well inland. Ironically, the upper low is actually helping to aid in heavy rainfall here today though, as the upper divergent flow is now over us, helping to pull activity back over us.

Some of the rainfall rates lately have been down right crazy in this tropical air, I was driving through St. Petersburg yesterday on the interstate, and I hit strong cell with a shelf cloud the dropped so much heavy rain, I literally could not see anything. Most cars pulled over and stopped, I was still driving, but slowly, only about 10 mph. Even being an elevated road in downtown, it was still flooding on the road! Thankfully these insane rainfall rates like this haven't gotten stuck into a long duration event anywhere, yet.
Quoting 188. red0:

Dustcane?


I never could get over the shear size of these outbreaks..Some over 2000 miles in diameter.
225. MahFL
Quoting 221. IDTH:

Good morning, I've been noticing this increasing cooling area in the GOM.



It's ok the big hurricane won't go near that :P.
Quoting 221. IDTH:

Good morning, I've been noticing this increasing cooling area in the GOM.








Hey, if that grows.......
Quoting 220. MahFL:

18Z MJO is neutral over the W Atlantic basin if you believe the GFS:





I WANT to believe the GFS!
Maybe early upwelling??
Supposed to say Earl upwelling?? Dang auto correct
230. vis0

Quoting 202. thetwilightzone:



lol

1st you guys want the rain then when the rain hits you want it to stop

Quoting 201. thetwilightzone:



lol

1st you guys want the rain then when the rain hits you want it to stop
you've got it all backwards

...and 2 backwards don't make it forwards.



Back to observing the man influenced atmosphere (aGW) and even if 20-30 inches does not fall its still warmer that mosquitoes are heading further poleward...how much money has been saved in doing nothing as in helping keep earth healthier/healthy. prevention is always cheaper than trying to cure/treat the many problems created...weather, to be continued