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Tropical Storm Earl Forms in Caribbean

By: Bob Henson 5:11 PM GMT on August 02, 2016

After racing across the eastern Caribbean as an strong tropical wave, Invest 97L has finally been dubbed Tropical Storm Earl. Late Tuesday morning, an Air Force hurricane-hunter mission found that Earl had developed a closed circulation center with a minimum central pressure of 1001 millibars. Flight-level winds reached 52 knots (57 mph) just after noon EDT Tuesday. In an special update issued at noon EDT Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center placed the center of newly christened Earl about 535 miles east of Belize City, Belize, with top sustained surface winds of 45 mph. Carrying a large though somewhat disorganized assortment of showers and thunderstorms (convection), Earl was moving westward at 22 mph, a pace expected to slow over the next 24-48 hours as Earl approaches Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. Even before Earl’s designation as a tropical storm, high winds in the Dominican Republic brought power lines down and sparked a fire aboard a bus, killing 6 and injuring 12 people, according to weather.com. Three others were killed after a tour boat overturned, although that incident had not yet been confirmed to be weather-related. The Meteorological Service of Jamaica issued a tropical storm warning for 97L on Monday night, and on Tuesday the Cayman Islands National Weather Service was cautioning small craft to exercise caution in open waters. Surface winds at Kingston, Jamaica, peaked at 29 mph early Tuesday morning, with only light rain observed, although showers and squalls have affected other parts of Jamaica.


Figure 1. Flight-level wind data gathered by an Air Force hurricane-hunter flight through 1604Z (12:04 pm EDT) Tuesday, August 2, 2016. The light westerly winds to the west of Earl’s center (the dot with the “1002”-mb label) showed that a closed circulation was evident at flight level. Image credit: tropicaltidbits.com.


Figure 2. Infrared satellite image of Tropical Storm Earl at 1615Z (12:15 pm EDT) Tuesday, August 2, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

What took Earl so long?
During its time as 97L, Earl puzzled tropical weather watchers and forecasters with its dramatic appearance on satellite coupled with its inability to qualify as a tropical depression or tropical storm. In part, this is because Earl has been more organized aloft than at the surface. During the classic nocturnal peaks of convection (shower and thunderstorm activity) on both Sunday and Monday night, 97L developed a large mass of convection near its center, with fairly symmetric upper-level outflow evident in all directions on satellite imagery. Because 97L’s rapid westward motion of 25-30 mph was roughly in line with upper-level winds, there was little vertical wind shear affecting the system, thus helping the convection to remain symmetric and well structured. The crucial ingredient missing at the surface was a closed center of circulation around which surface winds were rotating. In order to qualify as a tropical depression or tropical storm, a closed surface wind circulation is required by definitions employed by NHC and the World Meteorological Organization for the North Atlantic and East Pacific. Surface winds measured on Monday by the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) aboard Europe’s MetOp-B satellite showed easterly winds of 30-40 mph on the north side of 97L, but southerly rather than westerly winds on its south side. An Air Force reconnaissance flight into 97L was aborted due to mechanical difficulties on Monday afternoon, so Tuesday morning’s flight was the first to gather data from within the storm.


Figure 3. WU depiction of the NHC track forecast for Tropical Storm Earl issued at noon EDT Tuesday, August 2, 2016.

The outlook for 97L
Although Earl kept forecasters guessing as to exactly when it would become a tropical storm, forecast models have come into increasing solidarity on Earl’s prognosis. A sprawling area of high pressure to the north of Earl will keep the storm moving on a general westerly path. Even though it will slow down a bit over the next day or two, Earl still has less than two days to gather strength before it makes landfall late Wednesday, most likely in Belize but possibly on the far southeast Mexican coast of the Yucatan peninsula. The official NHC outlook keeps Earl just below hurricane strength at landfall late Wednesday night. Wind shear is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain at a light to moderate 10 - 20 mph, although parts of the circulation are being affected by stronger shear to the north associated with a slow-moving upper-level trough over the northwest Atlantic. We will have to keep a close eye on Earl tonight and Wednesday, as sea-surface temperatures are more than 1°C above average over the northwestern Caribbean, and Earl’s path will put it on the south edge of an area of of extremely high oceanic heat content that covers most of the northwest Caribbean. These waters would support rapid intensification if other conditions were favorable, although Earl may not be well enough organized to take full advantage of this oceanic rocket fuel.

The 00Z Tuesday ensemble runs of the ECMWF model were unanimous in keeping Earl as a weak tropical storm, while most members of the 06Z Tuesday GFS ensemble brought Earl up to strong tropical storm strength. The 12Z Tuesday run of the SHIPS statistical model gives Earl a 21% chance of a 24-hour increase of 25 knots in sustained winds, which would bring Earl to the threshold of hurricane status. Although the prospect is unlikely, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Earl become a minimal hurricane just before landfall, as predicted by the 06Z Tuesday run of the HWRF model. We’re very lucky that Earl is moving across the Caribbean so quickly, or else it could have become a much more formidable storm. If Earl remains far enough north on its trek across the Yucatan, it may have a brief window to reorganize across the southern Bay of Campeche, where the short-lived Tropical Storm Danielle formed in late June. It’s worth noting that Earl will be the fifth of all five named systems in the Atlantic this year to make landfall somewhere.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The short life of Tropical Storm Howard may have already hit its high point, with Howard’s sustained winds holding at 60 mph at 9:00 am EDT Tuesday. Located about 1250 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California, Howard was chugging west-northwest at 15 mph. Models are consistent in keeping Howard on this track well away from any land areas, with a gradual arc toward the west by late in the week. Although Howard will be moving over waters cooler than 26°C by Wednesday, wind shear will remain light to moderate for several days, so Howard will likely take a while to spin down, potentially remaining a tropical storm throughout the week. By this weekend, Howard’s path is expected to arc gradually leftward toward the northern Hawaiian Islands. It is unlikely that Howard would strike any of the islands as a tropical storm, although Howard or its remnants could bring some squally weather and high surf by Saturday or Sunday. Southeast of Howard, the next in the conga line of East Pacific storms may soon develop from Invest 92E, which was classified on Monday. As with its predecessors, 92E will be moving away from the Mexican coast on a straightforward west-northwest track. Models suggest that 92E is likely to become Tropical Storm Ivette by midweek—which would make it the ninth named storm for the East Pacific in just five weeks!—but there is little sign of major intensification beyond that point, as 92E will be moving across cooler waters.


Figure 4. WU depiction of the NHC track forecast for Tropical Storm Howard issued at 11:00 am EDT Tuesday, August 2, 2016.


Figure 5. A MODIS image of Typhoon Nida taken from aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite as Nida it approached the China coast on August 1, 2016. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Nida reaches Hong Kong
The southern coast of China came away relatively unscathed from the arrival of Typhoon Nida, which swept across the northernmost part of the Hong Kong area at Category 1 strength around 1800Z (2:00 pm EDT) Monday, August 1, or just after midnight Tuesday local time, moving on to pass directly over the sprawling inland city of Ghaungzhou. There was major disruption across the region on Tuesday, including hundreds of flight cancellations and delays, but little damage and no injuries have been reported. Wind gusts peaked at around 64 mph at Hong Kong’s Chek Lap Kok airport. Nida was continuing to dump very heavy rains in coastal provinces to the west of Hong Kong as it pushed inland late Tuesday local time.


”My friends”: Remembering the irreverent, irreplaceable Dave Schwartz
The world of weathercasting lost one of its most colorful and beloved figures on Saturday with the passing of the Weather Channel’s Dave Schwartz on Saturday (see this Weather Channel tribute). Dave was a fixture on TWC’s Weather Underground series (#WUTV) from the show’s inception in 2015, with his blackboard-based “WOW Factor” analyses and his quirky yet accessible style helping to solidify the show's role as a home for unapologetic, full-on weather geekery. Dave was also forthright about his longtime struggle with cancer. Early this year, on World Cancer Day, Dave told viewers about his extended battle (the full story can be found at this Weather Channel blog post). Back in the mid-2000s, Dave learned he had stage 2 pancreatic cancer. The five-year survival rate for all forms of pancreatic cancer is only 6%, yet Dave survived not only the initial cancer but a recurrence a year later. After almost ten years of remission, Dave was diagnosed last year with stomach cancer, but he remained on the air well into 2016. “In a sense, having cancer and the impact it has on my life has really enriched my life tremendously through strengthening my relationships with people,” he said.

Dave had been part of the Weather Channel for most of its 34-year existence, starting in 1985 as a newsroom assistant and becoming an on-camera meteorologist in 1992. A native of Philadelphia and a weather geek from childhood, Dave earned his bachelor’s degree in psychology from Temple University, later earning a certificate in meteorology studies from Mississippi State University. I believe this hybrid background helped shape Dave’s unique, people-centered approach to weathercasting, which was exemplified in his love of language, his eye for captivating weather tidbits, and his perennial reference to viewers as “my friends.” I greatly enjoyed Dave’s weathercasts from the start and was fortunate enough to meet him on a TWC visit years ago, though I wish I’d had the chance to know him better. WUTV’s Mike Bettes and Alex Wilson paid tribute to Dave on Monday (see embedded video below), including a collection of tributes from coworkers placed on his beloved chalkboard. “His chalkboard was his weather canvas that wowed us every day,” noted Bettes. From Wilson: “He taught me more than I could have learned from years of school, and I’ll never forget his zest for life.”

Bob Henson



Video 1. Mike Bettes and Alex Wilson pay tribute to Dave Schwartz on the Weather Underground series on Monday, August 1, 2016.


Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 495. unknowncomic:

This does not look like La Nina. FOOEY


I've been watching shear forecasts from it and the CFS, and the GFS has been much more erratic so far this year. Here's what the CFS shows entering late August--not much change from now:

Sticking to my guns ... cat 3 at landfall (belieze) .. 115mph ... shot in the dark but 962mb sounds good .... this thing is a quiet beast
Quoting 501. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I've been watching shear forecasts from it and the CFS, and the GFS has been much more erratic so far this year. Here's what the CFS shows entering late August--not much change from now:


thats what i have been saying for a month now but no one believes me
Anyone know when the next plane takes off? Am assuming it is after midnight EST.
Earl is still moving at a relatively fast pace (16mph), is there any possibility he might slow down a little overnight? If it does slow down, that could give the storm a better chance to RI.
506. MahFL
Quoting 487. thetwilightzone:

i could wake up and find a cat 4 or 5 hurricane in the AM


No.
Quoting 502. hurricaneryan87:

Sticking to my guns ... cat 3 at landfall (belieze) .. 115mph ... shot in the dark but 962mb sounds good .... this thing is a quiet beast
lol hope you dont take up a career as a gambler :D
508. MahFL
Quoting 504. CanesfanatUT:

Anyone know when the next plane takes off? Am assuming it is after midnight EST.


The NHC website has that info.
I realize most attention is turned to Earl (understandably so), but if anyone is interested in the happenings of the tropical western Pacific, I've recently completed a blog entry analyzing the basin over the next ten days. It also happens to be my ten year anniversary blog post.

Western Pacific Tropical Analysis: August 2nd, 2016

510. MahFL
Quoting 505. weatherrx2012:

Earl is still moving at a relatively fast pace (16mph), is there any possibility he might slow down a little overnight? If it does slow down, that could give the storm a better chance to RI.


The NHC has that info in the forecast discussion.
Quoting 483. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Hmmmmmm




Hopefully Earl does not outperform Hattie, as far as Belize City is concerned.
Quoting 496. Bucsboltsfan:

NWS in the Caymans reporting winds of 2kts and no rain. Looking at the radar any heavy rain is to the south. They dodged this one.


Truth is 97L and Earl were never a threat here. Putting up a TS watch only created unnecessary hype and worry IMO
Quoting 501. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I've been watching shear forecasts from it and the CFS, and the GFS has been much more erratic so far this year. Here's what the CFS shows entering late August--not much change from now:




Good for us if that pans out for the time being

Quoting 504. CanesfanatUT:

Anyone know when the next plane takes off? Am assuming it is after midnight EST.


Someone mentioned it below
516. MahFL
Looks like an eye feature is trying to form :

Quoting 510. MahFL:



The NHC has that info in the forecast discussion, try reading it.

Thanks, found the discussion.
Quoting 516. MahFL:

Looks like an eye feature is trying to form :




Eh, no, the C.o.C. is underneath the far west blob of convection.
We might see a WSW movement for a few hours...

Possibly brushing the coast like the GFS and ECM hinted at a few days ago.
Quoting 514. TropicalAnalystwx13:




That to me looks like an eye wall developing.
Quoting 519. SSL1441:



Eh, no, the C.o.C. is underneath the far west blob of convection.


As far as I am aware you are wrong.
didnt the nhc forcast earl to be not much of anything?
Quoting 522. tigerdeF:



As far as I am aware you are wrong.

Am I now? Microwave imagery proves it. Don't believe me, look up the location of the c.o.c. from the NHC and compare it to the satellite imagery from the tropical floaters page with the grid on.
As convection wanes a bit for the moment the grey circle clearly outlines the center NNE off the coast.

527. MahFL
This image helps better.
LOCATION...16.4N 82.3W
ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM E OF BELIZE CITY.
The feature is in about the correct place.



Quoting 526. ProgressivePulse:

As convection wanes a bit for the moment the grey circle clearly outlines the center NNE off the coast.




Do you guys think it will head into the BOC or just die inside of Mexico?
Quoting 522. tigerdeF:

As far as I am aware you are wrong.


Quoting 487. thetwilightzone:

i could wake up and find a cat 4 or 5 hurricane in the AM


Nah, Cat 2 at the most... It needs time to intensify THAT much, and it probably doesn't have that time.
Quoting 528. tigerdeF:



Do you guys think it will head into the BOC or just die inside of Mexico?


Depends on how strong it is to be honest. I think if it remains it's current shape, then it may not... get stronger, and maybe.
532. MahFL
Quoting 524. Hockalugy9:

didnt the nhc forcast earl to be not much of anything?



No, the NHC does not make those kind of forecasts.
They currently say it will be a Tropical Storm at landfall.
Quoting 532. MahFL:



No, the NHC does not make those kind of forecasts.
They currently say it will be a Tropical Storm at landfall.
so the nhc does make forcasts then? and i believe the past few days they were saying not much would happen with this wave
Moving along quickly the last 3 days!

Quoting 528. tigerdeF:



Do you guys think it will head into the BOC or just die inside of Mexico?


"Personal opinion" is that it will head more WSW and may not emerge in the BOC. However the official forecast does have it emerging and restrengthening a bit.

I think Earl has the potential to be a moderate Cat. 1 at landfall, not much more though. It's moving too quickly presently and it probably won't have enough time over water to really intensify much more than that.
537. MahFL
Quoting 533. Hockalugy9:

so the nhc does make forcasts then? and i believe the past few days they were saying not much would happen with this wave


No they said something could happen in the western Caribbean where conditions would be more conductive for tropical cyclone formation, which is exactly what is happening.
Quoting 534. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Moving along quickly the last 3 days!



look at how it wraps up right at the end. That's so cool.
Uh-oh:

HGX PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The mid and upper level high pressure ridge was located over
southwestern Louisiana and southeastern Texas at mid afternoon
today. Another feature of note was an area of lingering moisture
evident on the water vapor across the Louisiana coastal waters
into SE Texas.

The main forecast item will continue to be daytime high
temperatures with rain chances then becoming a concern by the
weekend. A consensus of the models has the 500 mb high pressure
center drifting westward during the remainder of this week. Over
the weekend and early next week a model consensus has the high
then drifting eastward toward the Tennessee Valley with an upper
low forming in the northeastern Gulf coastal areas.

With the upper level ridge overhead, very warm daytime
temperatures are expected across SE Texas for the remainder of
this week. Some moderation in the temperatures will then occur
early next week as the ridge drifts away from the area. Some
inland locations may experience afternoon highs near 100. Heat
index values will likely reach between 100 and 107 each afternoon
through the weekend.

The lingering moisture area overhead will aid in the development
of isolated showers and thunderstorms each afternoon through
Thursday near and inland of the coast. The model forecast
soundings show virtually no cap and decent CAPE of 2000 to 2500
Wednesday and Thursday
. Any isolated thunderstorms that do develop
will have the potential for gusty winds and brief downpours.


That could mean some pretty powerful thunderstorms on both days, right?
Quoting 535. ProgressivePulse:



"Personal opinion" is that it will head more WSW and may not emerge in the BOC. However the official forecast does have it emerging and restrengthening a bit.




If so I wonder if it will emerge into the Pacific as a viable tropical system.
Quoting 501. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I've been watching shear forecasts from it and the CFS, and the GFS has been much more erratic so far this year. Here's what the CFS shows entering late August--not much change from now:




Wish we could rid ourselves of this ridge parked over the southeast...heat has been heck on a landscaper up here in the NC piedmont, especially last week. Any better down your way?
Quoting 542. SPLbeater:



Wish we could rid ourselves of this ridge parked over the southeast...heat has been heck on a landscaper up here in the NC piedmont, especially last week. Any better down your way?

Heatdeck and rain blocker. oi vey.
Quoting 537. MahFL:



No they said something could happen in the western Caribbean where conditions would be more conductive for tropical cyclone formation, which is exactly what is happening.
so earlier today they were saying that the atlantic looks stagnit maybe through the month of august into sept... should i go with them on that
Quoting 541. tigerdeF:



If so I wonder if it will emerge into the Pacific as a viable tropical system.


I doubt it. Tall peaks for sure



Earl looked better Sunday, not really much change, except recovered from land interaction. Starting to think may not develope much more.
Quoting 499. Bucsboltsfan:



Well we got our one named storm into the books.
wow!
New robust tropical wave to exit african coast in 48 hrs. One has to give and iit is only a matter of time.
Quoting 543. SSL1441:


Heatdeck and rain blocker. oi vey.


We've had storms to our south and west and east and north almost every doggone day and we FINALLY got a storm this evening...felt so good after so long.

Btw...nice looking TS yal got cookin down there. :)
Quoting 277. ecflweatherfan:
I'm curious as to whether Earl is completely stacked. By this, I mean... Recon has the center at 16.3N 81.3W. Looking at infrared imagery, almost appears as if there is a circulation around 16.3N 80.3W (perhaps MLC). Idk.
That is actually one of the easiest determinations to make these days. Simply go to the earth.nullschool.net wind map website, use your mouse and scroll-wheel to move to the location and zoom in on the storm you are observing (which I've already done for the link). Then use your "i" key to move up from the surface winds to 1000, 850, 700 and 500 hPa heights, and the "m" key to move back down through them to the surface map again. (You can look in your browser's url box for the webpage to see the height of the current map.) Good vertical stacking is clearly visible for TS Earl, although the winds are not a consistent speed all around the center - obviously higher to the north - as the wave transitions to a "proper" cyclone.

Click on the black "Earth" box in the lower left to see the menu box with the update time and selectable options. The "Esc" key re-hides the menu. Here is the current surface wind map as of this posting.



I am a bit surprised by the resistance of people here to utilize this excellent wind tool. It showed the slow evolution of tropical wave 97L closing off a surface circulation in perfect detail. I checked it after each 3-hour update and saw precisely what was happening, even as many regulars here were desperately trying to determine spin and circulation from various satellite cloud loops and arguing about it.
Quoting 547. centex:

Earl looked better Sunday, not really much change, except recovered from land interaction. Starting to think may not develope much more.



your going to be 100% wrong on that
Quoting 547. centex:

Earl looked better Sunday, not really much change, except recovered from land interaction. Starting to think may not develope much more.


I don't see eye to eye on that.
Just a quick question why are we in the Fl. panhandle getting some much rain with this dome of high pressure setting on top of us. In the past summers this would not allow t/storms to form! Just thinking out loud.
Quoting 546. ProgressivePulse:



I doubt it. Tall peaks for sure






Oaxaca has peaks as tall as the Big Island, we saw what that did to Darby.
Quoting 478. GeoffreyWPB:


In some parts of Honduras its already raining a lot. Yellow alert have been put in 7 departments most of them in the coast. I hope rain doesnt caused a lot of problems in here.
Quoting 513. kmanislander:



Truth is 97L and Earl were never a threat here. Putting up a TS watch only created unnecessary hype and worry IMO


I'm waiting for "it's moving NE".
Quoting 551. Xulonn:

That is actually one of the easiest determinations to make these days. Simply go to the earth.nullschool.net wind map website, use your mouse and scroll-wheel to move to the location and zoom in on the storm you are observing (which I've already done for the link). Then use your "i" key to move up from the surface winds to 1000, 850, 700 and 500 hPa heights, and the "m" key to move back down through them to the surface map again. (You can look in your browser's url box for the webpage to see the height of the current map.) Good vertical stacking is clearly visible for TS Earl, although the winds are not a consistent speed all around the center - obviously higher to the north - as the wave transitions to a "proper" cyclone.

Click on the black "Earth" box in the lower left to see the menu box with the update time and selectable options. The "Esc" key re-hides the menu. Here is the current surface wind map as of this posting.



I am a bit surprised by the resistance of people here to utilize this excellent wind tool. It showed the slow evolution of tropical wave 97L closing off a surface circulation in perfect detail. I checked it after each 3-hour update and saw precisely what was happening, even as many regulars here were desperately trying to determine spin and circulation from various satellite cloud loops and arguing about it.

Definitely not quite vertically stacked yet.
559. IDTH
Don't know if anyone posted this or not


Quoting 554. gulfbreeze:

Just a quick question why are we in the Fl. panhandle getting some much rain with this dome of high pressure setting on top of us. In the past summers this would not allow t/storms to form! Just thinking out loud.


Just a guess, but clockwise rotation associated with the high pulling moisture off of the gulf?
Quoting 554. gulfbreeze:

Just a quick question why are we in the Fl. panhandle getting some much rain with this dome of high pressure setting on top of us. In the past summers this would not allow t/storms to form! Just thinking out loud.


Trough has been moving south to where I am (Carolinas), will stall through tomorrow. Possible explanation. We have had high PWAT, 90° temps, and shortwave energy helping to create instability as air masses meet on our end. Lots of severe storms in eastern NC and VA.
Quoting 371. Bucsboltsfan:



Be careful for what you wish for.


Don't worry. If you are prepared, a category one hurricane is fine (and fun) in my area.
Quoting 562. CaribBoy:



Don't worry. If you are prepared, a category one hurricane is fine (and fun) in my area.
Depends on Rain. Tropical Storm Erika wasn't fun for Dominica.
W storms are rare nuff creatures,and that one,Wilma, was the only one I've known of in 56.5 years,and was a late season one and actually brought or ushered in a cold front behind it.

This early August Storm Earl is a CV genesis origin born one.


Keep a eye on em chief'....

They can blow up like a spurned Irish Woman...

Fast and wicked strong in a hurry.



Quoting 385. pureet1948:




Is that chance likely to increase?


Hard to tell at this time. And NHC still not interested.
Not a good setup whith heavy rains falling on the mountains already
Quoting 559. IDTH:

Don't know if anyone posted this or not





I have to admit he has pretty much nailed this storm from the beginning.
Quoting 562. CaribBoy:



Don't worry. If you are prepared, a category one hurricane is fine (and fun) in my area.


You never really know. Irene (1) caused death and did way more damage than Arthur (2).
It seems like Earl started getting his act together at the peak of dmax. As for Mojo and models have they got that right at all. I IMHO don't think any of the models are doing that good of a job this year.
Quoting 535. ProgressivePulse:



"Personal opinion" is that it will head more WSW and may not emerge in the BOC. However the official forecast does have it emerging and restrengthening a bit.



I was trying to find forecast steering layers out in time, though unsuccessfully. Any info on that?
I'm surprised the wave at 30W is not an invest.
Quoting 564. Patrap:

W storms are rare nuff creature,and that one,Wilma, was the one I've known of in 56.5 years,and was a late season one and actually brought or ushered in a cold front behind it.

This early August Storm Earl is a CV genesis origin born one.


Keep a eye on em chief'....

They can blow up like a spurned Irish Woman...

Fast and wicked strong in a hurry.






Oh it was nice to have sub 60 degree lows after that Hurricane. We didn't have to use the car battery to power the air conditioner at night. ;)
Quoting 569. gulfbreeze:

It seems like Earl started getting his act together at the peak of dmax. As for Mojo and models have they got that right at all. I IMHO don't think any of the models are doing that good of a job this year.
once you get to a moderate tropical storm Dmax and Dmin don't really matter all that much, and for Hurricanes it is basically completely irrelevant.
Quoting 492. xcool:

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach

ECMWF forecasting MJO signal moving into Phase 6 over next 2 weeks. Typically this means suppressed Atlantic TCs.




OMG, no :'(
Quoting 495. unknowncomic:

This does not look like La Nina. FOOEY



Bad news, only bad news. ...
Hurricane Isaac in August 2012 flooded out 20,000 folks outside the levee protection here in Laplace to our west by 30 miles and Braithwaite South of Nola.



A Cat One can ruin folks easily.

It's actually the impact that counts in my experience,not the SSS designation,which is a terrible impact scale and needs a replacement badly.


This must be that
Quoting 571. yankees440:


I was trying to find forecast steering layers out in time, though unsuccessfully. Any info on that?


I am unaware of any dedicated projected steering products such as CIMMS, just current. However, future steering imagery is always available in the major models. One must know how to interpret however.
Quoting 569. gulfbreeze:

It seems like Earl started getting his act together at the peak of dmax. As for Mojo and models have they got that right at all. I IMHO don't think any of the models are doing that good of a job this year.


DMAX is not for another 8-9 hours

The models have actually been pretty good this year overall.
Quoting 551. Xulonn:

That is actually one of the easiest determinations to make these days. Simply go to the earth.nullschool.net wind map website, use your mouse and scroll-wheel to move to the location and zoom in on the storm you are observing (which I've already done for the link). Then use your "i" key to move up from the surface winds to 1000, 850, 700 and 500 hPa heights, and the "m" key to move back down through them to the surface map again. (You can look in your browser's url box for the webpage to see the height of the current map.) Good vertical stacking is clearly visible for TS Earl, although the winds are not a consistent speed all around the center - obviously higher to the north - as the wave transitions to a "proper" cyclone.

Click on the black "Earth" box in the lower left to see the menu box with the update time and selectable options. The "Esc" key re-hides the menu. Here is the current surface wind map as of this posting.



I am a bit surprised by the resistance of people here to utilize this excellent wind tool. It showed the slow evolution of tropical wave 97L closing off a surface circulation in perfect detail. I checked it after each 3-hour update and saw precisely what was happening, even as many regulars here were desperately trying to determine spin and circulation from various satellite cloud loops and arguing about it.


Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but the NullSchool wind map utilizes GFS to make its maps, so while yes, it does show many details, they are just one model's extrapolations of the present data. I'm not commenting on the accuracy of those graphical extrapolations, but just that they are extrapolations. That's why NHC typically waits for aircraft confirmation (i.e. direct measurements) in situations like these, unless the data is overwhelmingly in favor of a situation.
Quoting 577. CaribBoy:



Bad news, only bad news. ...
WOW!Ubelieveable shear oh well.
Quoting 578. Patrap:

Hurricane Isaac in August 2012 flooded out 20,000 folks outside the levee protection here in Laplace to our west by 30 miles and Braithwaite South of Nola.



A Cat One can ruin folks easily.

It's actually the impact that counts in my experience,not the SSS designation,which is a terrible impact scale and needs a replacement badly.




It was meant to be simple, so the average person could identify the risks. NWS will always give appropriate warnings (high wind, flood, tornado, etc); I don't believe it should be outright replaced, but after storms like Katrina and Sandy there should be something additional. They have surge forecasts for instance, etc of the system and bathymetry. Incorporate that along with SSS.
Quoting 563. Methurricanes:

Depends on Rain. Tropical Storm Erika wasn't fun for Dominica.


Dominica is not located in the N Lesser Antilles and is also very different.
587. Siker
Quoting 578. Patrap:

Hurricane Isaac in August 2012 flooded out 20,000 folks outside the levee protection here in Laplace to our west by 30 miles and Braithwaite South of Nola.



A Cat One can ruin folks easily.

It's actually the impact that counts in my experience,not the SSS designation,which is a terrible impact scale and needs a replacement badly.




True, I gutted houses in Braithwaite that were flooded to the second floor after Isaac. A Category One can certainly do a lot of water-related damage, and there have been many flood disasters in Central America from weaker storms.
Quoting 561. win1gamegiantsplease:



Trough has been moving south to where I am (Carolinas), will stall through tomorrow. Possible explanation. We have had high PWAT, 90° temps, and shortwave energy helping to create instability as air masses meet on our end. Lots of severe storms in eastern NC and VA.


Thanks same here low 90's but t/s early am & pm! Maybe climate change LOL!!!
Quoting 575. Methurricanes:

once you get to a moderate tropical storm Dmax and Dmin don't really matter all that much, and for Hurricanes it is basically completely irrelevant.

Thanks I will buy that.
Quoting 551. Xulonn:

That is actually one of the easiest determinations to make these days. Simply go to the earth.nullschool.net wind map website, use your mouse and scroll-wheel to move to the location and zoom in on the storm you are observing (which I've already done for the link). Then use your "i" key to move up from the surface winds to 1000, 850, 700 and 500 hPa heights, and the "m" key to move back down through them to the surface map again.
.....
I am a bit surprised by the resistance of people here to utilize this excellent wind tool. It showed the slow evolution of tropical wave 97L closing off a surface circulation in perfect detail. I checked it after each 3-hour update and saw precisely what was happening, even as many regulars here were desperately trying to determine spin and circulation from various satellite cloud loops and arguing about it.
This is one of my fave new things .... thanks to our Spain-resident blogger for the tip about this .... need to put it on my tablet now.
Quoting 556. allancalderini:

In some parts of Honduras its already raining a lot. Yellow alert have been put in 7 departments most of them in the coast. I hope rain does caused a lot of problems in here.
Agreed.
This reminds me: has anyone heard from RoatanGardener? She, IIRC, is on those BoH islands that are supposed to be impacted tomorrow.
Lot of very smart people on here most the time I have learn a lot and than you have to have a troll or two LOL!! But just like they say don't feed the troll!
Quoting 554. gulfbreeze:

Just a quick question why are we in the Fl. panhandle getting some much rain with this dome of high pressure setting on top of us. In the past summers this would not allow t/storms to form! Just thinking out loud.
Short term /Wednesday night through Friday night/...the central Gulf
Coast looks to remain between two large scale pressure systems. The
first is a deep layer ridge axis positioned over TX, while a trof
axis sinks southeast across the Appalachians. Considering the
placement of these features, the continued passage of mid-level
impulses caught up in the mean north-northwesterly deep layer flow is
favored. These features bring modest ascent and coupled with
persistently high atmospheric moisture with pwats around 2 inches,
the stage is set for a continuation in the unsettled weather pattern
with above normal daily rain chances at a general 40 to 60% range.
Storms have had a history of dropping locally heavy rains, which have
lead to mainly nuisance type, isolated occurrences of flooding in
some areas. See no reason to think storms in the short term will be
any different. Storm motion generally from north to south, but will
also be dependent on mesoscale processes such as position and
movement of intersecting, rain-cooled outflow boundaries.
Quoting 587. Siker:



True, I gutted houses in Braithwaite that were flooded to the second floor after Isaac. A Category One can certainly do a lot of water-related damage, and there have been many flood disasters in Central America from weaker storms.

I agree Hurricane Mitch caused tens of thousands of deaths despite only being a catagory one hurricane at landfall due to its extremely slow movement.
It took a recon to find west winds, probably started Sunday, no telling what pressure was then. About to start getting land interaction again, while not mountians, usually does impact development. With such a strong mid level you would of thought once LL kicked in and aligned an RI situation was possible. So looks like forward speed and land kept this one from becoming a Hurricane.
Quoting 574. ElConando:



Oh it was nice to have sub 60 degree lows after that Hurricane. We didn't have to use the car battery to power the air conditioner at night. ;)

We had the same set up in 1995 with Opal early Oct. storm lots cooler after. Had one in August same year and Ivan 04 in Sept. & Dennis 05 in July. Thank God for generators and room A/C. My wife can get very upset without A/C!!!
Quoting 589. gulfbreeze:



Thanks same here low 90's but t/s early am & pm! Maybe climate change LOL!!!


On vacation, and I believe Saturday or Sunday we had really heavy storms at around 6-7 PM. Didn't think storms forecast for the overnight hours would have as much energy to work with. 4-5 AM came and boy was I wrong.
Quoting 595. centex:

It took a recon to find west winds, probably started Sunday, no telling what pressure was then. About to start getting land interaction again, while not mountians, usually does impact development. With such a strong mid level you would of thought once LL kicked in and aligned an RI situation was possible. So looks like forward speed and land kept this one from becoming a Hurricane.


Gulf of Honduras is known for helping systems and not impeding it in most cases
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016

...EARL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 83.0W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
Quoting 570. Patrap:



Is that old 96 on the east side ?

Tropical Storm EARL Public Advisory
Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  
000
WTNT35 KNHC 030255
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016

...EARL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 83.0W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Belize has changed the Tropical Storm Warning and
Hurricane Watch to a Hurricane Warning from Belize City southward
to the Belize/Guatemala border. The government of Mexico has
changed the Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch to a
Hurricane Warning north of Belize City to Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
*Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala
border.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the Honduras/Guatemala border
including the Bay Islands of Honduras.
* North of Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 83.0 West. Earl is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion
with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next 48
hours. On the forecast track, the core of Earl is expected to pass
just north of the Honduras Bay Islands Wednesday afternoon, and then
be very near the Belize coast early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and Earl is likely to become a hurricane
before it makes landfall.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast of Honduras by late tonight or early Wednesday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous, and will reach Mexico within
the hurricane and tropical storm warning area by Wednesday night or
early Thursday. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in
portions of the hurricane warning area in Belize and Mexico
Wednesday night or early Thursday.

RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8
to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the
Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, with possible isolated maximum amounts
of 16 inches in Mexico and Belize. These rains could result in
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3
to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula to the north of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and damaging waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



603. beell
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016

Dropsonde data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Earl several hours ago indicated that the central pressure had fallen to 996 mb or even lower. Therefore the intensity was increased to 50 kt. Some higher surface wind speeds were reported from the aircraft's SFMR instrument, but these are believed to have been rain-inflated. The storm is gradually becoming better organized, with some developing banding features seen on satellite images. With low shear and SSTs approaching 30 C along the projected track, additional strengthening is likely and the NHC forecast calls for Earl to become a hurricane prior to landfall. This is in close agreement with the latest SHIPS guidance and only slightly above the model consensus. Weakening will occur after the cyclone makes landfall over Yucatan, and the amount of restrengthening in 2-3 days is highly dependent on how far Earl moves into the southern Bay of Campeche.

Based on aircraft and satellite center fixes, the initial motion is estimated to be 280/14 kt. The track forecast reasoning is essentially unchanged from the previous advisory package. A large and nearly stationary mid-tropospheric high pressure system centered over the southern Great Plains should prevent the tropical cyclone from moving significantly northward. The official forecast track is close to the model consensus for the first 48 hours and is a blend of the GFS and ECMWF tracks thereafter, with the former model's track to the north of the latter one. This is fairly similar to the previous NHC forecast.

The new intensity forecast has necessitated the issuance of a hurricane warning for the coast of Belize and a portion of the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
Quoting 581. Hurricanes101:



DMAX is not for another 8-9 hours

The models have actually been pretty good this year overall.

I got it backwards should had said DMIN. But who knows what might happen come DMAX>
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3
to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula to the north of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and damaging waves.
Quoting 564. Patrap:

W storms are rare nuff creatures,and that one,Wilma, was the only one I've known of in 56.5 years,and was a late season one and actually brought or ushered in a cold front behind it.

This early August Storm Earl is a CV genesis origin born one.


Keep a eye on em chief'....

They can blow up like a spurned Irish Woman...

Fast and wicked strong in a hurry.




This looks like this is going to blow like crazy in the overnight hours.
Hope they're not sending that plane that's been having problems back tonight.
I remember learning the meaning of "graupel" because a HHers flight had to turn back from Felix in 07 ... and Hurricane Janet was a beast.

NHC mentions pressures may have been lower then 996 during last Recon. I wouldn't be surprised Earl will nearly be or is a Hurricane during next Recon.
Quoting 581. Hurricanes101:



DMAX is not for another 8-9 hours

The models have actually been pretty good this year overall.

I was talking about the models and Mojo. Just a few days ago everyone was saying August would be active and Sept. would be calm. Just think in my when it comes to mother nature some time we don't have a clue!!!
Earl still at 60 mph/996 mbar, but this is based on old recon data. Wouldn't be surprised at all to see Earl briefly acquire hurricane status before landfall. If Earl does acquire hurricane status, it will be the first Caribbean hurricane since Sandy.
Quoting 583. HurrikanEB:


Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but the NullSchool wind map utilizes GFS to make its maps, so while yes, it does show many details, they are just one model's extrapolations of the present data. I'm not commenting on the accuracy of those graphical extrapolations, but just that they are extrapolations. That's why NHC typically waits for aircraft confirmation (i.e. direct measurements) in situations like these, unless the data is overwhelmingly in favor of a situation.
Good points - but I'm certainly not suggesting that the NWS/NHC should rely on it.

The nullschool maps seems to be a far better tool for amateurs here as opposed to out-and-out guessing based on looking at various satellite cloud images. My observations matched the NHC's reporting of the tropical wave remaining a tropical wave even as reported wind speeds increased. And it gave me a good idea of what was happening with winds at various heights during Earl's cyclogenesis as the tropical wave transitioned to a closed surface circulation.

The most fun for me is watching the separation of circulation centers at different heights under various shear conditions. (Overall, my skill in understanding tropical cyclones is far inferior to many people on this blog, but wind is one area where I think I have found a really simple tool to track one aspect of tropical weather.) The 0300UTC nullschool map update should show up in just a few minutes
NHC was in a hurry writing the report here is a quote on it """"The government of Mexico has
changed the Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch to a
Hurricane Warning north of Belize City to Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico."""" How can Mexico issue a Hurricane watch in Belize ?????
Quoting 611. belizeit:

NHC was in a hurry writing the report here is a quote on it """"The government of Mexico has
changed the Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch to a
Hurricane Warning north of Belize City to Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico."""" How can Mexico issue a Hurricane watch in Belize ?????


Quoting 612. Patrap:




I knew Guatemala is claiming that Belize belongs to them and now looks like Mexico is taking there share . Lol
Quoting 513. kmanislander:



Truth is 97L and Earl were never a threat here. Putting up a TS watch only created unnecessary hype and worry IMO


Huh? Obviously you were never going to get an Ivan, but.... Not sure I'd venture that far.
Quoting 611. belizeit:

NHC was in a hurry writing the report here is a quote on it """"The government of Mexico has
changed the Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch to a
Hurricane Warning north of Belize City to Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico."""" How can Mexico issue a Hurricane watch in Belize ?????
-Because north of Belize, is the City of Puerto Costa Maya, maybe a wrong translation from Spanish...
616. Tcwx2
That's bad because 2/3 of Belize City is 3 1/2" or below. Wow. EDIT: Sorry I meant to put ' not " lol hope you guys didn't really believe that but it's still incredible.
Quoting 605. Patrap:

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3
to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula to the north of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and damaging waves.

Quoting 608. gulfbreeze:


I was talking about the models and Mojo. Just a few days ago everyone was saying August would be active and Sept. would be calm. Just think in my when it comes to mother nature some time we don't have a clue!!!


Really? Must've missed that. I did see today someone say mjo will be in the Pacific for much of August.

I'll side with climatology more than I will over a presence of mjo signal in the basin. September and calm don't normally mix unless that's the tone of the season. That being said mjo cycles around 35-45 days on average I think. If that's fair you're looking at it returning here towards the end of Aug and start of Sep, then again towards mid-October.
There is another huge blowup of convection over the center, Earl is about to really get going.
The 0300[UTC] nullschool map just posted. Closed circulation is seen from surface to 500hPa. The center of circulation is stacked from the surface through 850hPa. Then the 700hPa is a bit off-center, and the 500 hPa center is still shifted well to the ENE.

Now if one of the met wizards with computer graphics skills could just superimpose the wind-map on a rainbow or other satellite image, we could see where the convection is with respect to the centers of rotation. (As a member of Grothar's generation, I'm too old and slow for such challenges.)
Quoting 615. HuracanTaino:

-Because north of Belize, is the City of Puerto Costa Maya, maybe a wrong translation from Spanish...
They should have used Chetumal if they wanted to use a city name Belize has a Hurricane watch from Punta Gorda to Corozal . Chetumal is right north of the Belize border
Quoting 564. Patrap:

W storms are rare nuff creatures,and that one,Wilma, was the only one I've known of in 56.5 years,and was a late season one and actually brought or ushered in a cold front behind it.

This early August Storm Earl is a CV genesis origin born one.


Keep a eye on em chief'....

They can blow up like a spurned Irish Woman...

Fast and wicked strong in a hurry.





Farewell and adieu to you fair Spanish ladies...farewell and adieu to you ladies of Spain, for we received orders for the sail back to Boston...and so nevermore we shall see you again...
Link
Very humid here in Roatan with little o no wind. Lots of lightning to the west and north but no rain.
Check out where Belize city is .
624. IDTH
The wind is really gusting outside my place. Nice thunderstorm going on, wish I could I knew how to post radar images, it's so weird.

Quoting 600. gulfbreeze:


Is that old 96 on the east side ?
Yes, ex 96L still there with a rotation hint at the surface, but getting northeasterly shear from the ULL to its north,...
Quoting 606. BahaHurican:

This looks like this is going to blow like crazy in the overnight hours.
Hope they're not sending that plane that's been having problems back tonight.
I remember learning the meaning of "graupel" because a HHers flight had to turn back from Felix in 07 ... and Hurricane Janet was a beast.




Janet was right in the same area too, forget exactly where it hit. Both Janet and Hattie were bad sons [daughters] of guns.
Quoting 619. Xulonn:

The 0300[UTC] nullschool map just posted. Closed circulation is seen from surface to 500hPa. The center of circulation is stacked from the surface through 850hPa. Then the 700hPa is a bit off-center, and the 500 hPa center is still shifted well to the ENE.

Now if one of the met wizards with computer graphics skills could just superimpose the wind-map on a rainbow or other satellite image, we could see where the convection is with respect to the centers of rotation. (As a member of Grothar's generation, I'm too old and slow for such challenges.)


I'm just going to assume the time is coming where the general public has that ability. I'm 31. Things have certainly changed since my days of watching tropical updates on twc. I can only imagine being a youthful adult and being passionate about tropical meteorology then, as I am now. We are fed a lot of info we didn't used to have the ability to obtain. I'm content, but it'll only get better.
Earl Long Floater - Rainbow Color Imagery Loop


Click image for loop

Controls are active.


What storm was it that hit s/e Texas about 4 or 5 years ago that went from T/S to cat 1 or 2 over night? We also had Opal in 95 went to bed with a cat one heading for upper Texas coast only to wake up to a strong cat 4 150mph winds heading for the Fl. panhandle at 25mph! Some times they just don't do what we think they will do. I know we (man) thinks with all our computers and models think we know all but it doesn't always work out.
Quoting 624. IDTH:

The wind is really gusting outside my place. Nice thunderstorm going on, wish I could I knew how to post radar images, it's so weird.




If you live near a NWS office, go to their radar page and right-click "go to standard version"to open a new tab/window. Copy paste that url to the img button.

Speaking of which, it's looks to be coming down back in the Wilmington area (I have their page bookmarked). The same storms that spawned waterspouts in the Inner Banks earlier.
631. Tcwx2
Banding features on the western side are becoming more evident. I might...just might wake up to a hurricane. Goodnight WU.
Quoting 628. Patrap:

Earl Long Floater - Rainbow Color Imagery Loop


Click image for loop

Controls are active.



Quoting 564. Patrap:

W storms are rare nuff creatures,and that one,Wilma, was the only one I've known of in 56.5 years,and was a late season one and actually brought or ushered in a cold front behind it.

This early August Storm Earl is a CV genesis origin born one.


Keep a eye on em chief'....

They can blow up like a spurned Irish Woman...

Fast and wicked strong in a hurry.






That was a strange one, Pat. It blew pretty good here. Maybe 40-50mph, plus gusts. As soon as the storm passed, it actually became quite cool and dry. It didn't last too long, but there certainly was a period of tranquil weather regarding temperature. It got sunny not long after passage and the humidity plummeted. Ill never forget it. Had some plants growing that admired cold and it was right after Wilma that they went to town
Quoting 629. gulfbreeze:

What storm was it that hit s/e Texas about 4 or 5 years ago that went from T/S to cat 1 or 2 over night? We also had Opal in 95 went to bed with a cat one heading for upper Texas coast only to wake up to a strong cat 4 150mph winds heading for the Fl. panhandle at 25mph! Some times they just don't do what we think they will do. I know we (man) thinks with all our computers and models think we know all but it doesn't always work out.
Are you talking about Hurricane Humberto (2007)?
Quoting 591. BahaHurican:
This is one of my fave new things .... thanks to our Spain-resident blogger for the tip about this .... need to put it on my tablet now.
Agreed.
You're one of my favorite bloggers here, Baha, and I appreciate your logical and reasoned science-based approach to tropical systems.

Speaking of tablets, I recently purchased a new Nvidia Shield K1, an 8" model running Android 6.0. It has a high-end dedicated graphics processor that reduces CPU load, and is designed to help gamers and avoid video buffering. And of course, that also helps with movies and grahics-intensive websites like this blog. High-quality and a screaming bargain at $199. Highly recommended.

The main problem with the nullschool site and a tablet is that I haven't found a touch-screen substitute for the scroll-wheel,mouse buttons, and shortcuts like the "i"and "m" and "esc" keys, which make nullschool navigation really easy on a laptop or desktop PC. Unless I'm missing something, nullschool is not tablet/touchscreen friendly.
Quoting 632. Patrap:




I would like to see that loop 6-12 hrs ago zoomed where you see the oven mit just west of the OBX (Alligator River) where the waterspouts were.
Quoting 566. belizeit:

Not a good setup whith heavy rains falling on the mountains already
IIRC, Belize City is not the best location to ride out a strong hurricane ....
:o/
Quoting 570. Patrap:


Is that ex-96L approaching the Lesser Antilles? It HAS been 7 days ....

On the other side of the isthmus .....
639. Siker
Eye might be popping out:


GFS has Earl just barely at hurricane strength at landfall in Belize
Must be boomer night in the south as I have a light show N over the Lake and one Southeast as well.

August.




I'm fairly confident Earl will become a Hurricane sometime in the morning. These storms ramp up so quick past 80 west in the Caribbean that it can seem unreal.
By the way where is Grother I need someone from my age group but he is a lot smarter than me and I do respect his opinion! He is the Blob king and I mean that with the most respect.
I think I Levi said ones that Mojo is not that important after you get In to the heart of the season
Quoting 551. Xulonn:

That is actually one of the easiest determinations to make these days. Simply go to the earth.nullschool.net wind map website, use your mouse and scroll-wheel to move to the location and zoom in on the storm you are observing (which I've already done for the link). Then use your "i" key to move up from the surface winds to 1000, 850, 700 and 500 hPa heights, and the "m" key to move back down through them to the surface map again. (You can look in your browser's url box for the webpage to see the height of the current map.) Good vertical stacking is clearly visible for TS Earl, although the winds are not a consistent speed all around the center - obviously higher to the north - as the wave transitions to a "proper" cyclone.

Click on the black "Earth" box in the lower left to see the menu box with the update time and selectable options. The "Esc" key re-hides the menu. Here is the current surface wind map as of this posting.



I am a bit surprised by the resistance of people here to utilize this excellent wind tool. It showed the slow evolution of tropical wave 97L closing off a surface circulation in perfect detail. I checked it after each 3-hour update and saw precisely what was happening, even as many regulars here were desperately trying to determine spin and circulation from various satellite cloud loops and arguing about it.
It is a great visualization tool based on the GFS for weather data. You might like to watch Cameron Beccario's 2014 presentation, here, it is very informative:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QXNODLWhSbw.
Basically the winds shown are a particle simulation using interpolation in between grid points.
I think it is a great tool, but it is limited by any detailed testing or validation beyond what is intrinsic to the GFS source data, as far as I know. LoL, I am still listening to his presentation, so maybe he hasn't got to that part yet.
Unenhanced IR

Quoting 605. Patrap:

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3
to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula to the north of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and damaging waves.

Just about the worst side ...
Quoting 622. Stamfordbridge:

Very humid here in Roatan with little o no wind. Lots of lightning to the west and north but no rain.
Welcome to the blog.... ya'll stay safe down there and keep us posted if possible .... hopefully you won't get too bad of a blow....
Quoting 634. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Are you talking about Hurricane Humberto (2007)?

Yes thank you that was the one.
Weird to see a storm actually strengthening in the Caribbean instead of being torn up by shear and dry air, it has been a while.
Quoting 639. Siker:

Eye might be popping out:



Thats an overshooting top, it means intense thunderstorms but not really structural
651. IDTH
Quoting 630. win1gamegiantsplease:



If you live near a NWS office, go to their radar page and right-click "go to standard version"to open a new tab/window. Copy paste that url to the img button.

Speaking of which, it's looks to be coming down back in the Wilmington area (I have their page bookmarked). The same storms that spawned waterspouts in the Inner Banks earlier.

Yeah it was pouring outside and thunder was constant.
Quoting 594. MrTornadochase:

I agree Hurricane Mitch caused tens of thousands of deaths despite only being a category one hurricane at landfall due to its extremely slow movement.
Up to 75" of rain in a few days with deforested and denuded mountains was a disaster waiting to happen - and it did.

In 2012, I moved to the little tourist and agricultural town of Boquete in the mountains of Western Panama - on the Pacific side of the continental divide. I am aware that Mitch caused serious flooding here - but fortunately only two deaths - in October of 1998, during La Nina conditions following a big El Nino.

Panama is below the hurricane zone with only known hit ever from a tropical cyclone. In 1969, Martha made landfall here in late November as a strong tropical storm, but apparently caused some flooding, but overall didn't cause a lot of damage.

I feel safe from a direct hit by a hurricane here, but as a former Californian, this is the first time in my life - at age 74 - that I am living in an area where our weather could be affected by a tropical cyclone.
Quoting 623. belizeit:

Check out where Belize city is .
Relief map ....
Quoting 626. win1gamegiantsplease:



Janet was right in the same area too, forget exactly where it hit. Both Janet and Hattie were bad sons [daughters] of guns.
From Wiki: [sorry, too lazy to dig the report from NHC archives ...]

In its developmental stages, Janet caused $7.8 million in damage to the Lesser Antilles and 189 deaths in the Grenadines and Barbados.[nb 2] While Janet was in the central Caribbean Sea, a reconnaissance aircraft flew into the storm and was lost, with all eleven crew members believed to be perished. This remains the only such loss which has occurred in association with an Atlantic hurricane. A Category 5 upon landfall on the Yucatán Peninsula, Janet caused severe devastation in areas of Quintana Roo and British Honduras. Only five buildings in Chetumal, Mexico remained intact after the storm, and an estimated 500 deaths occurred in the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. At Janet's second landfall near Veracruz, significant river flooding ensued, worsening effects caused by Hurricanes Gladys and Hilda earlier in the month. The floods left thousands of people stranded and killed at least 326 people in the Tampico area, leading to the largest Mexican relief operation ever executed by the United States.

Janet's landfall as a Category 5 hurricane on the Yucatán Peninsula was the first recorded instance that a storm of such intensity in the Atlantic made landfall on a continental mainland; prior to Janet, landfalls of Category 5 intensity were only known to have taken place on islands.[2] Janet's minimum barometric pressure, recorded in Chetumal, was at the time the second lowest recorded pressure on land associated with a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic, behind the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane. At least 1,023 deaths were attributed to Hurricane Janet, as well as $65.8 million in damages.
Really rainy late afternoon and evening here in South Florida. Still raining where I am. Must be really unstable aloft. Likely some flooding in poorly drained areas, but I don't think much else.
For those in Earls way, make any last preps and get ready, a possible Cat 1 is not something to take lightly.
Quoting 635. Xulonn:

You're one of my favorite bloggers here, Baha, and I appreciate your logical and reasoned science-based approach to tropical systems.

Speaking of tablets, I recently purchased a new Nvidia Shield K1, an 8" model running Android 6.0. It has a high-end dedicated graphics processor that reduces CPU load, and is designed to help gamers and avoid video buffering. And of course, that also helps with movies and grahics-intensive websites like this blog. High-quality and a screaming bargain at $199. Highly recommended.

The main problem with the nullschool site and a tablet is that I haven't found a touch-screen substitute for the scroll-wheel,mouse buttons, and shortcuts like the "i"and "m" and "esc" keys, which make nullschool navigation really easy on a laptop or desktop PC. Unless I'm missing something, nullschool is not tablet/touchscreen friendly.
Thanks for the tablet tip... sounds like something I would HIGHLY enjoy .... I've been using the nullschool site on my laptop, and frankly I just assumed it would be hard to use on the tablet ... going to try it out when I get a break and see what happens. There's gotta be SOME way to make it work well ....
Quoting 655. ElConando:

Really rainy late afternoon and evening here in South Florida. Still raining where I am. Must be really unstable aloft. Likely some flooding in poorly drained areas, but I don't think much else.
For those in Earls way, make any last preps and get ready, a possible Cat 1 is not something to take lightly.
I got caught in that ... some SPECTACULAR lightning across Broward County.... I was driving from south to north through the rain this evening and then back ... really sorry I didn't have my camera with me. Looks like more to come, at least potentially.
Quoting 650. all4hurricanes:


Thats an overshooting top, it means intense thunderstorms but not really structural


Might be referring to the warmer tops in the center of the CDO just to the left of the white tops.
Quoting 653. BahaHurican:

Relief map ....

I posted the relief map to show how lowlying and swampy much of the northern coast of Belize is .... and the City is not what one would describe as a superior place to ride out a hurricane, especially as it is built on a delta ... hopefully Belizeans will be able to use whatever time they have in the morning to get some swift preparations completed.


Hurricane Keith, about the same formation as Earl, these types of storms can blow up quickly. Keith was a bit slower though.
661. IDTH
I'm expecting recon to find 70 MPH winds

Geez the moderators on here need to start doing their jobs

I am sick of it


My apologies to the rest of the members on here who are more civilised
The latest ADT estimates from CIMSS indicate that Earl may be a little stronger than six hours ago. Also, to my untrained eyes, it seems that according to the latest water vapor imagery an eye might be forming near 16.2N 82.9W. (NHC estimates as of 03Z were 16.4N 83.0W)
Bob Breck's Blog
Tuesday, August 2, 2016
Earl Getting Stronger, but Not Our problem
Tonight’s satellite loops show a burst of T-Storms around the center of Earl and I see no reason he will not be a Hurricane before making landfall in Belize. Of more concern is the European model trying to form low pressure in the northern Gulf by Tuesday of next week. It appears the model is trying to spin up something along a frontal boundary that will move down the east coast. I clearly remember that’s how Hurricane Alicia formed back in 1983, an old frontal boundary pushed off the Louisiana coast and a weak area of low pressure developed south of Louisiana. Within 2 days Alicia exploded into a Cat. 3 Hurricane and slammed into Houston. Not saying that will happen next week as there is nothing there now. However, I have mentioned before, this is pay attention time and if you are planning a trip to the AL/FL beaches for next week, keep up with the latest weather forecasts. Right now, models are indicating the POTENTIAL for some very heavy rains along the northern Gulf coast IF a low were to develop. Nothing might happen. Perhaps modelers inputted bad data. Let’s just keep an eye on the northern Gulf for NEXT week.




Bob Breck at 8:37 PM
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Obvious eye-like structure becoming fairly evident on sat. Earl may throw some punches yet. Getting close to ca.

Anyway back to Earl I'm looking forward for next recon
Quoting 661. IDTH:

I'm expecting recon to find 70 MPH winds




I wouldn't doubt a hurricane at this point
A couple thoughts on the HH troubles. I haven't read every comment today, just a few, so I don't know if anyone knows or has posted the exact problems related to why they have twice turned back.
~The hurricane hunters have flown since June. In late July, they flew out of Hawaii into Hurricane Darby.
~Anything reliable to indicate trouble is with the aircraft? "MechanicalMaintenence issues" could be with equipment and not the plane(s).
Quoting 663. wunderkidcayman:

Geez the moderators on here need to start doing their jobs

I am sick of it


My apologies to the rest of the members on here who are more civilised
When you say the storm is coming your way, they complain.
When you don't say the storm is coming your way, they complain.
When you don't say anything, they complain.

Obviously the complaining has very little to do with you ....
Glad you guys don't seem to be getting anything serious from this. I don't envy Belize their upcoming experience ...
When's next flight? Assuming problems are fixed.
Quoting 670. Barefootontherocks:

A couple thoughts on the HH troubles. I haven't red every comment today, just a few so, I don't know if anyone knows or has posted the exact problems related to why they have twice turned back.
~The hurricane hunters have flown since June. In late July, they flew out of Hawaii into Hurricane Darby.
~Anything reliable to indicate trouble is with the aircraft? "Mechanical issues" could be with equipment and not the plane(s).
That's all I've heard so far. I just want them to get it fixed. Non-functional equipment can lead to bigger problems, which is why I'm glad both flights were aborted, despite the resultant lack of data.
674. IDTH
Quoting 672. Articuno:

When's next flight? Assuming problems are fixed.


000
NOUS42 KNHC 011514
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT MON 01 AUGUST 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z AUGUST 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-067

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA....CARIBBEAN SEA
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 72 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 73
A. 02/1130, 1730Z A. 02/2330, 03/0530Z
B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 0305A CYCLONE
C. 02/0715Z C. 02/1930Z
D. 16.1N 79.0W D. 16.2N 81.8W
E. 02/1100Z TO 02/1730Z E. 02/2300Z TO 03/0530Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE - NOAA 43 FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 74
A. 03/0930Z A. 03/1130, 1730Z
B. NOAA3 0405A B. AFXXX 0505A CYCLONE
C. 03/0600Z C. 03/0800Z
D. 16.4N 83.9W D. 16.6N 84.3W
E. 03/0900Z TO 03/1200Z E. 03/1100Z TO 03/1730Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES WHILE SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
B. P-3 FLIGHTS DEPARTING EVERY 12 HOURS AT 0600Z AND 1800Z.
3. REMARKS: TEAL 71 IS FLYING A RESOURCES PERMITTING LOW LEVEL
INVEST INTO THIS SYSTEM TODAY. ESTIMATED TAKEOFF 01/1630Z.
Hi Baha,
I'm thinking along the lines of their meteorological equipment, not aircraft-related. Yeah, bad timing to be down as the calendar rolls through August. I also hope the troubles are soon fixed.

Actually, you quoted me before I corrected myself. LOL Right after I posted, I found a Sun Sentinel Herald story that cited "maintenance issues."

Hope you saw my post back to you earlier about Lixion Avila being a Drrr not a Mrrr? I don't have the energy to read back that far to see. Fading fast.

quote added
Quoting 673. BahaHurican:

That's all I've heard so far. I just want them to get it fixed. Non-functional equipment can lead to bigger problems, which is why I'm glad both flights were aborted, despite the resultant lack of data.

Quoting 667. GatorWX:

Obvious eye-like structure becoming fairly evident on sat. Earl may throw some punches yet. Getting close to ca.


Strong convection just staying shy of Department of Gracias a Dios.Earl looks to be a hurricane or very close to one.
Quoting 674. IDTH:



000
NOUS42 KNHC 011514
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT MON 01 AUGUST 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z AUGUST 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-067

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA....CARIBBEAN SEA
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 72 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 73
A. 02/1130, 1730Z A. 02/2330, 03/0530Z
B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 0305A CYCLONE
C. 02/0715Z C. 02/1930Z
D. 16.1N 79.0W D. 16.2N 81.8W
E. 02/1100Z TO 02/1730Z E. 02/2300Z TO 03/0530Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE - NOAA 43 FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 74
A. 03/0930Z A. 03/1130, 1730Z
B. NOAA3 0405A B. AFXXX 0505A CYCLONE
C. 03/0600Z C. 03/0800Z
D. 16.4N 83.9W D. 16.6N 84.3W
E. 03/0900Z TO 03/1200Z E. 03/1100Z TO 03/1730Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES WHILE SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
B. P-3 FLIGHTS DEPARTING EVERY 12 HOURS AT 0600Z AND 1800Z.
3. REMARKS: TEAL 71 IS FLYING A RESOURCES PERMITTING LOW LEVEL
INVEST INTO THIS SYSTEM TODAY. ESTIMATED TAKEOFF 01/1630Z.



I still don't know how to read these lmao
Quoting 677. Articuno:



I still don't know how to read these lmao


Earlier WKC posted a really nice PDF that basically broke this message down.
Been watching that all week. Early this mourning, the circulation finally went to the surface. New game was on then.
Read all the posts during the week about how it was a TC, but I guess they don't know how to read a wind map?

Quoting 619. Xulonn:

The 0300[UTC] nullschool map just posted. Closed circulation is seen from surface to 500hPa. The center of circulation is stacked from the surface through 850hPa. Then the 700hPa is a bit off-center, and the 500 hPa center is still shifted well to the ENE.

Now if one of the met wizards with computer graphics skills could just superimpose the wind-map on a rainbow or other satellite image, we could see where the convection is with respect to the centers of rotation. (As a member of Grothar's generation, I'm too old and slow for such challenges.)
680. IDTH
Quoting 677. Articuno:



I still don't know how to read these lmao

Neither do I, LOL!

I remember somebody on the blog saying that sometime after midnight their is supposed to be a recon flight but I don't know.
Reporting from San Pedro Sula, Honduras. Big thunderstorm a couple of minutes ago. Not good to get this much rain before a Hurricane.
still pretty calm here n Roatan and extremely hot. just waiting for Earl to roll in.
It's not that hard if you take the time to figure it out.
All it is, is the fight number, time there going, where there going, and what they will be doing.

Quoting 680. IDTH:


Neither do I, LOL!

I remember somebody on the blog saying that sometime after midnight their is supposed to be a recon flight but I don't know.
Did you got some rain earlier?

Quoting 682. roatangardener:

still pretty calm here n Roatan and extremely hot. just waiting for Earl to roll in.
moderate rain in La Ceiba around 8PM local time...but lots of lightning and thunder....just waiting to see what happens with Earl during the day Wednesday....probably plenty of rain
Quoting 677. Articuno:



I still don't know how to read these lmao
Those times are Zulu times so it says a plane will be departing 03/530Z that means its going to depart on the 3 of august 5:30 am zulu . I live in Belize and we have CDT but do not use daylight saving time so i just need to subtract 6 hrs from that time which means they should have left 45 minuts ago but they still have not departed so they are late
NHC forecasts a hurricane striking Belize with warnings in place towards Chetumal. Stay safe if you're in the way and goodnight.

And their off. Hopefully they make it by 3.
Edit : the NHC advisory I had quoted expired, hence I deleted it.
Tropical Storm EARL
As of 06:00 UTC Aug 03, 2016:

Location: 16.0°N 83.1°W
Maximum Winds: 55 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 994 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1008 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 20 NM
Eye Diameter: N/A
TS Earl appears to be getting better organized and it should become a Hurricane any time today. Belize and anyone in its path should take immediate precautions as a potential hurricane is nothing to take lightly. This system has already claimed at least 6 lives as only a disturbance.

Read more about update here
Quoting 691. meteorologistkidFL:

TS Earl appears to be getting better organized and it should become a Hurricane any time today. Belize and anyone in its path should take immediate precautions as a potential hurricane is nothing to take lightly. This system has already claimed at least 6 lives as only a disturbance.

Read more about update here
Maybe early as this morning.

"Funktop enhancement - developed by Ted Funk. Highlights intense areas of precipitation"
Recon not even in Earl, yet 45 kt winds at flight level and 37ish kt winds estimated at surface.
The Eastern Pacific TWO mentions the remnants of Earl:
An area of low pressure could form near the southern coast of
Mexico late this weekend in association with the remnants of
Atlantic Tropical Storm Earl after it moves across southern Mexico.
Some subsequent development of this system is possible while
it moves west-northwestward near the southwestern coast of Mexico
early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
Recon supports 60kt/993mb. Tight pressure gradient.
Quoting 699. barbamz:


Congrats, Barbamz : you've just reached 10000 comments :-)
Lot of people I know have bought property in Belize to retire,I think this would be the worst place to go.Constant tropical systems.Year after year.
Quoting 682. roatangardener:

still pretty calm here n Roatan and extremely hot. just waiting for Earl to roll in.


Visited Roatan once, beautiful place. Stay safe, and good luck.
Quoting 700. 999Ai2016:


Congrats Barbamz : you've just reached 10000 comments :-)

Wow, really I did. Unimaginable when I once joined WU.

BTW, couldn't find any news about the monster MCS, sparked by Ex-Nida, which has hit Vietnam yesterday evening. Maybe because of this:
Storm Nida breaks submarine cable, slows down Vietnam’s Internet
TUOI TRE NEWS, Updated : 08/03/2016 13:50 GMT + 7

Have a pleasant day, everybody. Best wishes to Belize with Earl!
good morning, the wave between 35 and 40 looks healthy
Earl looks ragged to me.
09:03:00Z 16.250N 83.783W 3,110 meters (~ 10,203 feet) 987.5 mb
09:00:30Z 16.433N 83.800W 3,082 meters(~ 10,112 feet) 992.4 mb 58 knots 56.6 knots (~ 65.1 mph)
Tropical Storm

borderline cat 1 at landfall. small system, best case scenario for belize.
New center fix in Earl: 989mb.

Season better be active August 20th-September 20th for an active season to happen. GFS shows dead Atlantic up to August 18th
Quoting 707. barbamz:

New center fix in Earl: 989mb.



Looks like it'll be bumped up to 70 mph next update. No 64kt+ readings yet, so far on this pass at least.
Earl finally has itself stacked. It does look ragged on conventional satellite this morning with significant warming of convection, but recon is still finding pressure falls. It has about 18 hours until landfall. The NHC forecast seems reasonable to me, still doesn't seem like an RI situation but the environment looks to favor a little more strengthening.

Edit: Well, now the latest fix from recon has the pressure back up 3mb, so it is definitely struggling with something for the time being. Maybe just proximity to land, which was something I mentioned this time yesterday as a possible issue for it.
711. Ed22
Quoting 709. Huracan94:


Looks like it'll be bumped up to 70 mph next update. No 64kt+ readings yet, so far on this pass at least.
Earl steadily strengthening pressure down from 994mbs to now 989mbs could be Hurricane later today...
gfs is blind. the tropical wave in the center of the atlantic has a good shot.
Quoting 708. wunderweatherman123:

Season better be active August 20th-September 20th for an active season to happen. GFS shows dead Atlantic up to August 18th

Active can go until October. And why are always on using the GFS? A few weeks ago the GFS had nothing through August 10th but yet we have Earl. Only because you do not see something now doesn't mean something won't happen. Besides 96L was suppose to be better then 97L turned out at first. You will get your storms, don't worry.
Earl got stacked just in time to slam some mountain's, or are they all in Mexico? Soon he will be history (still don't like storms with male names).

Belize is good surfing no?
Where is our next wave with a real chance at development to watch.
Earl is getting close to Hurricane status. Convection is waning a little this morning possibly due to some land interaction but pressures continue to fall.
716. Ed22
Quoting 707. barbamz:

New center fix in Earl: 989mb.


We are up for interesting times ahead with Earl here...
Getting a steady rain how here in Roatan but still little or no wind.
718. Ed22
Quoting 704. Chicklit:

good morning, the wave between 35 and 40 looks healthy

This could be the next one of interest in Caribbean this weekend...
*Let me also join several others on here who have already sympathized -in personally expressing my deepest condolences to the immediate weather forecasting/ blogging community as well as to the family and close friends of dear Dave…I am sure that the weather community at large has been greatly impoverished by his loss. May we do our best To imitate not only his meteorological proficiency & passion, But Also to copy his good-hearted nature and great soul qualities which from all accounts seem to have so characterized the caliber and stature of this man. Long May his Legacy live on in our hearts and be an inspiration to many future weather forecasting generations.
& In his honour- Long live accurate and competent Meteorological forecasting… May He Rest in Peace!
God Bless!
720. Ed22
Quoting 714. Autistic2:

Earl got stacked just in time to slam some mountain's, or are they all in Mexico? Soon he will be history (still don't like storms with male names).

Belize is good surfing no?
Where is our next wave with a real chance at development to watch.
That wave over the Central Atlantic take a look at that one it have rotation and good spin to it as well.
Quoting 708. wunderweatherman123:

Season better be active August 20th-September 20th for an active season to happen. GFS shows dead Atlantic up to August 18th

I tend to believe it's correct, given the MJO forecast. Not sure if it will be a complete shutout, but looks like a well below normal start to the peak period of the season, even considering Earl. Once the MJO returns by late August it should set up a very active few weeks. If not, the season will be a dud, at least for overall activity. 2010 went down in a similar way though. I don't expect it to be like that, but given the fact we'll be digging out of a hole, I still like our chances to see average activity. October could be above normal too this year, since the Caribbean will be more conducive to later season developments than the past few years.
Quoting 708. wunderweatherman123:

Season better be active August 20th-September 20th for an active season to happen. GFS shows dead Atlantic up to August 18th
for about a week this blog has been raging over earl. the blog used to be a great place to get info and at times still is. it has become a place for people to come and bitch at each other over who is right or wrong from global warming to hurricane warnings to nhc to politics. grow up people. be mature . if the nhc wants you to issue a warning for them they will hire you (after all some folks are clearly weather savants) (sarcasm). moderators it is unfortunate be you folks are gonna half to tighten up and police this better too. I know this means sometimes you may have to bust a friend but heavy is the head that wears the crown ( I know you are vols and unpaid but you did vol.) in short , a good blog is being ruined by poor attitude and ego. My grandfathers words remain true , you cannot hide a petty mouth , a bitter heart , a weak soul or ugly people..... they show themselves all on their own
nws melb. forecasting a very good shot at rain this upcoming weekend for us on the east coast of Fl.. some of these struggling models need to be fed carrots just like our wild bunny. they are blind.
Ex 96L definitely seems to have its eyes set on the islands for some sort of a rendezvous very soon…the ‘John Hope Caribbean sea rule’ aside- it more often seems that the ‘Lesser Antilles rule’ has been more pre-dominant & prominent resulting in a greater likelihood that systems approaching the islands are generally suspect -to be strengthening & increasing in organization near or over the Lesser Antilles island chain… Again time will tell if this phenomena will materialize with the present systems.
Also, future 98/99L seems to have acquired a split cyclonic axis with double low centers of circulation (the main one is now southerly). It will be interesting to see which one though may eventually become the more dominant low center system (the southern Lesser Antilles/ Windward islands may have to watch out), & deserving of classification if necessary at some point while nearing the island chain…
Blessings!
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
800 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2016

...EARL ALMOST A HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 84.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY BELIZE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Government of Honduras has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
Bay Islands.

(...) (...) (...)

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Avila

(!) Selected quotes : see NHC's website for complete advisory.
Quoting 723. number4steel:

for about a week this blog has been raging over earl. the blog used to be a great place to get info and at times still is. it has become a place for people to come and bitch at each other over who is right or wrong from global warming to hurricane warnings to nhc to politics. grow up people. be mature . if the nhc wants you to issue a warning for them they will hire you (after all some folks are clearly weather savants) (sarcasm). moderators it is unfortunate be you folks are gonna half to tighten up and police this better too. I know this means sometimes you may have to bust a friend but heavy is the head that wears the crown ( I know you are vols and unpaid but you did vol.) in short , a good blog is being ruined by poor attitude and ego. My grandfathers words remain true , you cannot hide a petty mouth , a bitter heart , a weak soul or ugly people..... they show themselves all on their own


Projection.
Quoting 724. Hockalugy9:

i said this season will be less active and the shear forcast for late august into late sept is calling for very high shear throught the atlantic....

Shear forecasts don't really have any appreciable skill more than about two weeks besides in some cases increased shear comes from TCs unless you explicitly remove it. What model did you see this in?
R.I.P. Dave, You are the best, My Friend!
70mph
ya i was bitched at just for stating what the terms of service says at the top of every single blog.. after people were talking politics on a weather blog.. then the moderator banned me temporarily for simply stating the rules.. go figure
Poor Earl,can not decide to grow up or play tiddly winks.
Quoting 682. roatangardener:

still pretty calm here n Roatan and extremely hot. just waiting for Earl to roll in.
Hey! Was wondering about you and how you are doing.... Hope it doesn't get too bad for you today, as it seems Earl will be a hurricane later today .....
737. MahFL
Earls winds are at 70 mph, the original post had an error.
738. MahFL
8:00 AM EDT Wed Aug 3
Location: 16.3°N 84.4°W
Moving: W at 14 mph
Min pressure: 989 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph
8:00 AM EDT Wed Aug 3
Location: 16.3%uFFFDN 84.4%uFFFDW
Moving: W at 14 mph
Min pressure: 989 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph



Earl's got about 18 hours before making landfall based on its current forward speed. So it will be interesting to see how much Earl can strengthen today.
Quoting 723. number4steel:

for about a week this blog has been raging over earl. the blog used to be a great place to get info and at times still is. it has become a place for people to come and bitch at each other over who is right or wrong from global warming to hurricane warnings to nhc to politics. grow up people. be mature . if the nhc wants you to issue a warning for them they will hire you (after all some folks are clearly weather savants) (sarcasm). moderators it is unfortunate be you folks are gonna half to tighten up and police this better too. I know this means sometimes you may have to bust a friend but heavy is the head that wears the crown ( I know you are vols and unpaid but you did vol.) in short , a good blog is being ruined by poor attitude and ego. My grandfathers words remain true , you cannot hide a petty mouth , a bitter heart , a weak soul or ugly people..... they show themselves all on their own

Dude, you haven't been here long if you think the blog is worse than it used to be.... and it seems you're the one to "come and bitch" this morning. Get over it.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED AUG 3 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Howard, located more than 1450 miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula, and on recently upgraded Tropical
Storm Ivette, located about 850 miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

An area of low pressure could form near the southern coast of
Mexico late this weekend in association with the remnants of
Atlantic Tropical Storm Earl after it moves across southern Mexico.
Some subsequent development of this system is possible while it
moves west-northwestward near the southwestern coast of Mexico
early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent
742. Tcwx2
Speaking to all of you... Let's please watch our language a little better.
6AM La Ceiba, Honduras, Medium to heavy rain, on and off, light gusty winds.
One long wire antenna dropped, due to old age and probably a branch hitting it.
Cleared the storm sewer grates of built up leaves, in planning for more heavy rain.
remnants well have too see if the remnants of Earl can re form in the E PAC now rember

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012008
100 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008


THIS SYSTEM IS NOT DESIGNATED TROPICAL STORM ALMA BECAUSE THE
SURFACE CENTER OF ALMA DISSIPATED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
AMERICA YESTERDAY.



so the NHC no longer chaged named storms so if the surface center of EARL dos not DISSIPATED and reforms in the E PAC in tac it will still be named Earl how ever it dos not stay in tac by time when it gets in the E PC then it will get a new named
Good Morning all.Congratulations to NHC,as always they are on the right track.They are the REAL experts here.
Trying to predict where a wave will develop or when? Why bother. The models don't always have good enough information to pick up on every little nuance. If you ever lived in south Florida and cancelled plans because the weatherman said 80% chance of rain tomorrow, and nary a drop falls it was a bad model run. Better info gives better results.
Uh ho... Earl might be up to something, with this torus-shaped silhouette and nice banding feature to the north. Eye about to pop-up ?
(Screenshot)
Quoting 705. centex:

Earl looks ragged to me.
It's 5:30am we all look a little ragged this early!
Quoting 723. number4steel:

for about a week this blog has been raging over earl. the blog used to be a great place to get info and at times still is. it has become a place for people to come and bitch at each other over who is right or wrong from global warming to hurricane warnings to nhc to politics. grow up people. be mature . if the nhc wants you to issue a warning for them they will hire you (after all some folks are clearly weather savants) (sarcasm). moderators it is unfortunate be you folks are gonna half to tighten up and police this better too. I know this means sometimes you may have to bust a friend but heavy is the head that wears the crown ( I know you are vols and unpaid but you did vol.) in short , a good blog is being ruined by poor attitude and ego. My grandfathers words remain true , you cannot hide a petty mouth , a bitter heart , a weak soul or ugly people..... they show themselves all on their own



The blog comments section is, and always has been since I started lurking (During Katrina), a mixed bag. There are people on here who really know what they are talking about, and provide a lot of useful information, but there are also a lot who think they know a lot but really don't. Yes, it's a mixed bag of the useful, the useless, the relevant and the totally off topic, but overall I enjoy reading (and occasionally commenting) on it. Every year a few people have a rant about how it isn't as good as it used to be, and that may well be true, but I for one, keep coming back.
ECWMF shows a downward phase for the Atlantic.This season just can't seem to keep the MJO in the Atlantic basin for nothing.
752. Kyon5
Quoting 751. washingtonian115:

ECWMF shows a downward phase for the Atlantic.This season just can't seem to keep the MJO in the Atlantic basin for nothing.
The MJO won't matter as much once we get into the heart of the season. It's also a model, so it could flip flop.
Very nice sentiment. In reading Dave's bio I can surmise that he did not take a traditional route to his position on TWC. Looks like he followed his heart and blazed his own path. Very unique individual. One in a million. I'm sure he led a very full and interesting life. He will be missed.

Quoting 719. NatureIsle:

*Let me also join several others on here who have already sympathized -in personally expressing my deepest condolences to the immediate weather forecasting/ blogging community as well as to the family and close friends of dear Dave…I am sure that the weather community at large has been greatly impoverished by his loss. May we do our best To imitate not only his meteorological proficiency & passion, But Also to copy his good-hearted nature and great soul qualities which from all accounts seem to have so characterized the caliber and stature of this man. Long May his Legacy live on in our hearts and be an inspiration to many future weather forecasting generations.
& In his honour- Long live accurate and competent Meteorological forecasting… May He Rest in Peace!
God Bless!

Quoting 747. weaverwxman:

Trying to predict where a wave will develop or when? Why bother. The models don't always have good enough information to pick up on every little nuance. If you ever lived in south Florida and cancelled plans because the weatherman said 80% chance of rain tomorrow, and nary a drop falls it was a bad model run. Better info gives better results.
Quoting 750. OviedoWatcher:





The blog comments section is, and always has been since I started lurking (During Katrina), a mixed bag. There are people on here who really know what they are talking about, and provide a lot of useful information, but there are also a lot who think they know a lot but really don't. Yes, it's a mixed bag of the useful, the useless, the relevant and the totally off topic, but overall I enjoy reading (and occasionally commenting) on it. Every year a few people have a rant about how it isn't as good as it used to be, and that may well be true, but I for one, keep coming back.
You are on the right track.
Quoting 751. washingtonian115:

ECWMF shows a downward phase for the Atlantic.This season just can't seem to keep the MJO in the Atlantic basin for nothing.

Regarding non el nino seasons, you don't need the MJO to have activity in the Atlantic during the peak. Atlantic has got to pick it up starting August 20th. If we dont have much going on towards the end of August, an active season will be less likely to happen.
Quoting 751. washingtonian115:

ECWMF shows a downward phase for the Atlantic.This season just can't seem to keep the MJO in the Atlantic basin for nothing.
I'm not sure whether to be happy or sad .... lol ...
The storm-watching part of me wants it to be wrong so we can have storm after storm sweep impressively across the basin....

The wary-watching part of me is just relieved.

Schizo, I tell you ...
With Earl on the verge of becoming a hurricane in the W. Caribbean, there's a hint of something possibly forming in the GOM next week?
God bless you Dave .......... I have watched you for years and enjoyed your professional and friendly weather-casting. Rest in peace. My condolences to your wife and family!
Quoting 755. wunderweatherman123:


Regarding non el nino seasons, you don't need the MJO to have activity in the Atlantic during the peak. Atlantic has got to pick it up starting August 20th. If we dont have much going on towards the end of August, an active season will be less likely to happen.
Less likely, perhaps, but not impossible. I am still remembering a September with 7 - 8 named storms in 30 days ...
Becoming a beautiful looking storm, hopefully the people of Belize are ready. It looks like a strengthening hurricane until landfall is on its way.

Quoting 759. BahaHurican:

Less likely, perhaps, but not impossible. I am still remembering a September with 7 - 8 named storms in 30 days ...

My numbers this year were for a slightly active season. 14-7-3. Still possible. I don't always rely on the GFS for predicting storms but it has been pretty good in detecting seedlings when it is consistent. Hopefully, it will latch onto something towards the last 10 days of August.
762. Tcwx2
Has anyone found a live webcam in Belize City or in another area that will be affected by Earl? I would greatly appreciate it if it was not a camera that "is updated every 20 minutes" but is a live streaming video.
758...first comment in how many years? Welcome to the blog comment section. :-)
Quoting 762. Tcwx2:

Has anyone found a live webcam in Belize City or in another area that will be affected by Earl? I would greatly appreciate it if it was not a camera that "is updated every 20 minutes" but is a live streaming video.


Here is a very good Belize weather page with live weather updates, link to radar, and live webcam, etc.
Link
765. Tcwx2
If that's the eye then it is farther north than positioned. Sure does look like one but could just be fooling our eyes.
Quoting 748. 999Ai2016:

Uh ho... Earl might be up to something, with this torus-shaped silhouette and nice banding feature to the north. Eye about to pop-up ?
(Screenshot)
Wow can't believe Dave Schwartz is gone. I didn't know he was ill? Grew up watching him. A pioneer for sure.
I'm less impressed than some with Earl. This AMSR2 pass is a couple hours old now, but it shows what appears to still be some tilt to the southeast with height.



Quoting 710. MAweatherboy1:
Earl finally has itself stacked. It does look ragged on conventional satellite this morning with significant warming of convection, but recon is still finding pressure falls...
Indeed - impressive image on the wind map. Very obvious stacked rotation from the surface all the way up to 500hPa - and impressive outflow to the north at 250hPa. I guess this is what really warm SST's can do if other conditions are favorable.

The "strong" side of the storm and the earlier wave that formed it - with respect to winds - was always to the north. The typical "sheet" of uniform and strong easterly winds at 250hPa (~35,000 ft.) all week has changed into an interesting and complex pattern.)
Well other than the struggling wave way out there nothing east of earl.
Looks to be setting up for a long hot and dry August. No way this will be an active season.
In a busy season earl would have been earl east of the islands and a cat 3 now
Things have changed in the last 5 years or so we have to admit it.

Quoting 752. Kyon5:

The MJO won't matter as much once we get into the heart of the season. It's also a model, so it could flip flop.
Quoting 666. lurkersince2008:

Bob Breck's Blog
Tuesday, August 2, 2016
Earl Getting Stronger, but Not Our problem
Tonight’s satellite loops show a burst of T-Storms around the center of Earl and I see no reason he will not be a Hurricane before making landfall in Belize. Of more concern is the European model trying to form low pressure in the northern Gulf by Tuesday of next week. It appears the model is trying to spin up something along a frontal boundary that will move down the east coast. I clearly remember that’s how Hurricane Alicia formed back in 1983, an old frontal boundary pushed off the Louisiana coast and a weak area of low pressure developed south of Louisiana. Within 2 days Alicia exploded into a Cat. 3 Hurricane and slammed into Houston. Not saying that will happen next week as
there is nothing there now. However, I have mentioned before, this is pay attention time and if you are planning a trip to the AL/FL beaches for next week, keep up with the latest weather forecasts. Right now, models are indicating
the POTENTIAL for some very heavy rains along the northern Gulf coast IF a low were to develop. Nothing might happen. Perhaps modelers inputted bad data. Let’s just keep an eye on the northern Gulf for NEXT week.




Bob Breck at 8:37 PM
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I miss seeing Bob on the news......
771. Tcwx2
Thank you so much! Don't know how I couldn't find that site. I'll probably be watching that webcam tonight as the storm comes in.
Quoting 764. Sfloridacat5:



Here is a very good page with live weather updates, link to radar, and webcam, etc.
Link
Here is a couple of live streams from the Belize area.
Link
773. MahFL
Big convective blow up :

AF309 is about to make its first pass into Earl.
My condolences to the family and friends of Dave Schwartz. I too enjoyed watching him explain his WOW factor on the chalkboard. He will be truly missed.
Quoting 767. 1900hurricane:

I'm less impressed than some with Earl. This AMSR2 pass is a couple hours old now, but it shows what appears to still be some tilt to the southeast with height.






Yea, that pass is from 2:00am but land interaction likely knocked Earl down a bit overnight. Appears to be rebounding now with cold cloudtops developing over the CDO and spiral banding becoming more pronounced.

Quoting 666. lurkersince2008:

Bob Breck's Blog
Tuesday, August 2, 2016
Earl Getting Stronger, but Not Our problem
Tonight’s satellite loops show a burst of T-Storms around the center of Earl and I see no reason he will not be a Hurricane before making landfall in Belize. Of more concern is the European model trying to form low pressure in the northern Gulf by Tuesday of next week. It appears the model is trying to spin up something along a frontal boundary that will move down the east coast. I clearly remember that’s how Hurricane Alicia formed back in 1983, an old frontal boundary pushed off the Louisiana coast and a weak area of low pressure developed south of Louisiana. Within 2 days Alicia exploded into a Cat. 3 Hurricane and slammed into Houston. Not saying that will happen next week as there is nothing there now. However, I have mentioned before, this is pay attention time and if you are planning a trip to the AL/FL beaches for next week, keep up with the latest weather forecasts. Right now, models are indicating the POTENTIAL for some very heavy rains along the northern Gulf coast IF a low were to develop. Nothing might happen. Perhaps modelers inputted bad data. Let’s just keep an eye on the northern Gulf for NEXT week.




Bob Breck at 8:37 PM
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I hate to lose Bob. He's the one forecaster I always trusted when it came to hurricanes. His colleagues at Fox 8 are good, but I'll miss him.
Use Google Earth for webcams, comes in handy
779. Tcwx2
How is it now? I see that the local weather station in your area is reporting heavy rain.
Quoting 743. jimhondo:

6AM La Ceiba, Honduras, Medium to heavy rain, on and off, light gusty winds.
One long wire antenna dropped, due to old age and probably a branch hitting it.
Cleared the storm sewer grates of built up leaves, in planning for more heavy rain.
Earl looks very healthy and is probably an intensifying hurricane right now. A USAF plane is entering the outskirts of the storm unless it decides to turn around. Rapid intensification is a possibility later today given the current structure and environment. Belize should be preparing for something stronger than a Category 1.
NOAA3 has departed Tampa, FL en route to Earl.
Quoting 776. CybrTeddy:



Yea, that pass is from 2:00am but land interaction likely knocked Earl down a bit overnight. Appears to be rebounding now with cold cloudtops developing over the CDO and spiral banding becoming more pronounced.



Yeah, I don't think I realized quite how old it was in my sleepy stupor at the time of posting. The latest pass is a little better.

Good morning, fellow weathergeeks! :-)

Just peeking in, but going to mention in my novice candor what I'm thinking and not seeing much regarding. If Earl gets stronger, it'll push a bit more poleward. Still weak, it may have to traverse the Yucatan peninsula. The peninsula is mostly flat and I've seen crossing storms still able to draw moisture in from the waters on all three sides. If Earl manages to find the BoC not so far west, it may have time to restrengthen. Notice in the two SFC map forecasts below that the ridge is retrograding--steering becomes weak, could allow a stall, some meandering, and a stronger storm will have no trouble pushing up against 1012/1014mb. Lots of ifs, yes, I know, but Earl may not be quite done even after its first landfall. In the meantime, thoughts and prayers for those in Belize and Mexico who are in harm's way. Have a great day, all. :-)
Tcwx2...normal rain...just like our regular rainfalls....I have seen MUCH worse during our winter months..If it gets really intense..I will post
Heavy shower with gusty winds occuring now in Roatan
Quoting 750. OviedoWatcher:



The blog comments section is, and always has been since I started lurking (During Katrina), a mixed bag. There are people on here who really know what they are talking about, and provide a lot of useful information, but there are also a lot who think they know a lot but really don't. Yes, it's a mixed bag of the useful, the useless, the relevant and the totally off topic, but overall I enjoy reading (and occasionally commenting) on it. Every year a few people have a rant about how it isn't as good as it used to be, and that may well be true, but I for one, keep coming back.


Very true. My join date is 2010, but I started lurking back during 2004 before Charley hit us. It got pretty crazy around here back then, much more so than anything I've seen in the last few years. I don't comment much, but I've learned a lot over the last 12 years. I enjoy coming back every hurricane season and seeing many of the same names that have been contributing to the weather discussion for so long. Things sometimes stray off-topic, but that's normal for any group that tends to spend so much time together. For the trolls or the very few posters who are too annoying, there's that handy little ignore button.
Growing up in FL in the 90's as a weather buff, TWC was your goto during cane season and any other time of the year for that matter. There was no internet really yet lol.. Dave was, without a doubt, my favorite meteorologist to listen to. He was softspoken, but charasmatic and humorous. He had a rather unique delivery, but you certainly could see his passion. Looking back as an adult, you could also see a very strong sense of kindness. I read some background on him a bit ago upon hearing of his passing. I read that before joining TWC, he worked with the disabled and mentally handicapped. I have two members of my family who fall under those challenges. It takes a strong and good willed human to care for them and Dave most obviously was. He will surely be missed by all he ever encountered! I can't imagine Dave ever had an enemy.

R.I.P. Dave. Long may you run.
788. Ed22
Quoting 760. VAbeachhurricanes:

Becoming a beautiful looking storm, hopefully the people of Belize are ready. It looks like a strengthening hurricane until landfall is on its way.


It could be a 80 or 85 mph hurricane now, furthermore it look to be moving towards the west-northwest now it seems...
789. Tcwx2
Sounds good!
Quoting 784. jimhondo:

Tcwx2...normal rain...just like our regular rainfalls....I have seen MUCH worse during our winter months..If it gets really intense..I will post
We have nearly our first hurricane since January and the epac has yet another named storm. Morning everyone.
989mb, not at center yet...
Quoting 723. number4steel:
For about a week this blog has been raging over earl. the blog used to be a great place to get info and at times still is. it has become a place for people to come and bitch at each other over who is right or wrong from global warming to hurricane warnings to nhc to politics. grow up people. be mature . if the nhc wants you to issue a warning for them they will hire you (after all some folks are clearly weather savants) (sarcasm)....in short , a good blog is being ruined by poor attitude and ego. My grandfathers words remain true , you cannot hide a petty mouth , a bitter heart , a weak soul or ugly people..... they show themselves all on their own
Well spoken. The insanity and vitriol surrounding the current U.S. election campaigns seems to be mirrored here. Is it a cultural thing? Is some of it related to the anonymity offered by the internet? If so, it's a move in the wrong direction.

Unfortunately, especially in the U.S., there has been a movement involving a sizable portion of the population to give equal weight to irrational ideas and unsupported "opinions" and "thoughts" and minimize or discredit the value of logic, reason, science and the opinions of actual experts.

I have seen this trend towards uncivil interaction in the onerous clashes over global warming and associated climate change here at Dr.Masters' blog (and Dr.Rood's blog) in the past, and I saw it again this past week with the many ridiculous posts related to Invest 97L and the development of TS Earl. The number of people who think they are smarter than the NHC and NWS meteorologists, and weather and climate scientists around the world is pretty sad. I like to give all participants a chance by reading their posts, but I am leaning towards developing a heavy hand with the ignore button.

OTOH, there are many intelligent, informed and logical/rational people who post here, and I truly enjoy interacting with them and being a part of this community.

/endrant /backtoEarl
Edit: After reading other comments about how bad it used to be before I arrived, I will still stand by my words about the current situation. I hope people take my comments more as a statement on modern internet forum interaction issues rather than whining about the situation here. As I said, if I don't like it, there is always the ignore button.

Quoting 780. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Earl looks very healthy and is probably an intensifying hurricane right now. A USAF plane is entering the outskirts of the storm unless it decides to turn around. Rapid intensification is a possibility later today given the current structure and environment. Belize should be preparing for something stronger than a Category 1.


Agreed. Ernesto in 2012 was able to intensify into a 100mph Category 2 in a similar position and forward velocity to Earl.
Quoting 793. CybrTeddy:



Agreed. Ernesto in 2012 was able to intensify into a 100mph Category 2 in a similar position and forward velocity to Earl.


Earl might try and beat that number it looks like.
Weak steering due to the deformation zone over Florida extending southward:

Recon making its first pass, pressures already down to 989mb.
I have been here 6 plus years, and from what I have experienced, but bear in mind no major storms have come close, that the local topography protects me.
I am 3000 feet south of the beach, near La Ceiba Honduras, but RIGHT to my south, there is a line of mountains that go up to at least 4000 feet above sea level. They are SO close, that in the evening, I get catabatic winds coming down the slopes. Normally, during the day, the winds are from the east or northeast.
From what I heard from people that lived here during Mitch, it was the rain that created the problem. The bridges washed out, crops were destroyed and most people STARVED to death. Many of course, were washed away, but from reports I read and what I have heard, the govt services failed to get food to people. There is only ONE highway on the north coast of Honduras, and when the bridges wash away, no food comes in. The Bay Islands get hammered though, because they don't have mountains shielding them.
Good morning. The Twave around 43W bears watching IMO. Has abundant convection and a decent spin. Vorticity at all levels although not symmetrical ATM.
Generally speaking, land interaction is a drag to approaching tropical cyclones, but in the Bay of Campeche, mountains ringing the bay can serve to amplify development. Is there any such effect on storms in the Bay of Honduras with mountains throughout the high country of mainland Honduras?

987.2mb minimum pressure
Quoting 800. PensacolaBuoy:

Generally speaking, land interaction is a drag to approaching tropical cyclones, but in the Bay of Campeche, mountains ringing the bay can serve to amplify development. Is there any such effect on storms in the Bay of Honduras with mountains throughout the high country of mainland Honduras?



The mountains killed Hattie very quickly once it made landfall, as far as how it affected the storm while still over water I'm not sure
Quoting 795. Drakoen:

Weak steering due to the deformation zone over Florida extending southward:




That would explain the soaking last night.
Looks like Earl is down to 987mb per that pass. No hurricane force winds yet, highest being 59kts SFMR but the recon has yet to sample the whole system.
Quoting 801. VAbeachhurricanes:

987.2mb minimum pressure


WNW of the 8 am fix.

I throw a ball, he grabs it & places it so. I throw a ball, he grabs it & places it.
"What are you doing?", I ask.
"The yellow ball is Earl's NHC initiation point. By the time it gets to where I am, it'll be a hurricane. Ok?"
Quoting 805. Drakoen:



WNW of the 8 am fix.


A little room from the coastline will help it.
Quoting 805. Drakoen:



WNW of the 8 am fix.


Appears to be drifting in that direction. Question is, where will it go after it resumes a true heading and how long will it drift before the steering reestablishes itself. The position farther to the N gives Earl a chance to intensify which will also affect the track.
A mini atmospheric river has became stuck in the blue ridge mountains of Virginia. Cool and drizzly here in NC within the wedge.
Consistent 50knt wind barbs SE of the center, Earl is probably a hurricane. Will be interesting to see if NHC pulls the trigger at 11am because the HH probably won't have sampled the NE quad by then.
Quoting 757. Stormwatch247:

With Earl on the verge of becoming a hurricane in the W. Caribbean, there's a hint of something possibly forming in the GOM next week?
GFS was trying to form something off a front in the Gulf, but it remains weak, and has only a few support from its ensembles, and GFS is the only model showing it. The wave in the Central Atlantic is moving very quickly, and the chances of development of it are decreasing.
Good Morning folks I see Earl is trying to become the 2nd hurricane of the season. It looks really good this morning!
Quoting 809. kmanislander:



Appears to be drifting in that direction. Question is, where will it go after it resumes a true heading and how long will it drift before the steering reestablishes itself. The position farther to the N gives Earl a chance to intensify which will also affect the track.


Kman, not to take away the eminent danger ahead with Earl, but I was just curious if you happened to look at the wave around 43W. It's looking like it wants to ride the same track as Earl. Are conditions favorable for development?
Quoting 812. Climate175:

GFS was trying to form something off a front in the Gulf, but it remains weak, and has only a few support from its ensembles, and GFS is the only model showing it. The wave in the Central Atlantic is moving very quickly, and the chances of development of it are decreasing.

Well our rain chances are going up next week big time in NOLA. So im guessing this maybe from what the models have been predicting about that system heading towards us next week.

The bright red and yellow colors have expanded & moved significantly closer to the center.
817. Tcwx2
Except for the 0z run, the ECMWF was consistently showing it developing maybe into a Tropical Depression. So, some model support, we have time to watch.
Quoting 812. Climate175:

GFS was trying to form something off a front in the Gulf, but it remains weak, and has only a few support from its ensembles, and GFS is the only model showing it. The wave in the Central Atlantic is moving very quickly, and the chances of development of it are decreasing.
Eye poping out ... earl quickly getting organized at all levels this morning. It looks amazing i cant believe its not at least a 80-85 mph hurricane now!
Quoting 813. bigwes6844:

Good Morning folks I see Earl is trying to become the first hurricane of the season. It looks really good this morning!



This would not be the first of the season
Quoting 813. bigwes6844:

Good Morning folks I see Earl is trying to become the first hurricane of the season. It looks really good this morning!




You mean the Second hurricane of the season.
Quoting 818. hurricaneryan87:

Eye poping out ... earl quickly getting organized at all levels this morning. It looks amazing i cant believe its not at least a 80-85 mph hurricane now!

Frankly I never yet saw a hint of an eye.
Good Morning everyone..

Quick post while at work..

Lots of rain last night where some of our neighboring counties (Bladen and Brunswick) got over 4 inches while some of us in Wilmington received 1-2 inches. Its cloudy right now and more rain again expected starting at 2 this afternoon. This looks to continue well until Sunday. I'm heading to Charlotte on Friday for Fan Fest for the Carolina Panthers (Team Practice and Fireworks) and well I'm just hoping the rain stays away.

As I mentioned yesterday about the potential TC/rain event set up for GOM and SE coasts, the 06z NCEP ensembles are showing more support. The 0z Euro operational still has over 12 inches of rain for parts of LA. I saw the Bob Breck post earlier back in the blog and I agree if nothing develops there will still be heavy rain for someone.

But hey, if the past Euro runs are correct well then according to some of the posters on here, no worries as it will be nothing but an average mill of a rain storm..¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Stay dry and I'll check in later..

822. Good analysis, thanks!
NHC 11am position doesn't match the vortex message position.
Quoting 821. cRRKampen:


Frankly I never yet saw a hint of an eye.

Discussion even says mid level eye evident on microwave imagery .... hard to see in visible but its hinting there .... prolly not to surface quite yet. Im prolly wrong on thinking it would RI into a major but I still think it will be stronger than NHC forcast says at the moment
Quoting 816. mikatnight:


The bright red and yellow colors have expanded & moved significantly closer to the center.

Earl definitely better looking...displaying much 'better genes' than Howard (E-Pacific) at the moment. There's something unique to tracking Tropical Atlantic Systems for Sure.
(Also, the Hawaiian islands seem to have something with I named storms as well- eg. Iniki, Iselle-so it wouldn't hurt to keep close eyes on Ivette)

Blessings!
Quoting 817. Tcwx2:

Except for the 0z run, the ECMWF was consistently showing it developing maybe into a Tropical Depression. So, some model support, we have time to watch.
Yes, but I think it will likely be a robust front that will give some hefty showers and thunderstorms to that region.
Quoting 814. cat6band:



Kman, not to take away the eminent danger ahead with Earl, but I was just curious if you happened to look at the wave around 43W. It's looking like it wants to ride the same track as Earl. Are conditions favorable for development?


A mixed bag out there. Shear is low in the 5 knot range but there is a lot of dry air. The convection you are seeing is all to the South of where the circulation is centered. The entire Northern semi-circle of that feature is void of convection. The 850 vort has been improving but development, if any, should be very slow to occur.
Looks like Earl moving more NW now according to the latest HH fix
Quoting 825. hurricaneryan87:


Discussion even says mid level eye evident on microwave imagery .... hard to see in visible but its hinting there .... prolly not to surface quite yet. Im prolly wrong on thinking it would RI into a major but I still think it will be stronger than NHC forcast says at the moment

I just got a pic on FB from 'ICyclone' of nine hours ago, it then certainly did suggest an eye. Missed that.
It suffered then but now it looks good, dangerously good.
We are going into a small lull after Earl. A quiescent period.
Quoting 821. cRRKampen:


Frankly I never yet saw a hint of an eye.


Discussion mentions mid-level eye evident in microwave imagery .... its hard to see in the visible but the hints are there. Im prolly wrong that it will RI into a cat 3 however i think its stonger than 70mph now
Quoting 830. stormpetrol:

Looks like Earl moving more NW now according to the latest HH fix
or you could say northwest of west.

Yes. MIMIC-TC (from CIMSS) is up and running (although the last frames are older than what's available with other sats in the IR/vis spectrum). Link
Looks healthy to me, and the apparent strengthening trend is confirmed by ADT as well.
Quoting 769. 19N81W:

Well other than the struggling wave way out there nothing east of earl.
Looks to be setting up for a long hot and dry August. No way this will be an active season.
In a busy season earl would have been earl east of the islands and a cat 3 now
Things have changed in the last 5 years or so we have to admit it.




Yes boring season.
Quoting 830. stormpetrol:

Looks like Earl moving more NW now according to the latest HH fix

Just bouncing along the coast more than likely, doubt it's anything long term, but crucial to watch for northward extent of landfall from Belize's perspective.

I am not in the camp that this storm is ready to take off. It's core still does not look healthy enough to undergo rapid intensification. Storm is small that is for sure though. Need Radar from here on out.
Quoting 824. Drakoen:

NHC 11am position doesn't match the vortex message position.


Not on latitude but longitude looks good to me.
wow Africa doesn't even look active

Quoting 839. kmanislander:



Not on latitude but longitude looks good to me.


Yes. Regardless of that, any poleward movement would help with the system's longevity in the BOC if it makes it there.
Quoting 840. bigwes6844:

wow Africa doesn't even look active




Entertainment was so short... now back to boring dusty hot and dry weather.
844. IDTH
Quoting 840. bigwes6844:

wow Africa doesn't even look active



Because sinking air is prevalent over Africa.

Sinking air should not exist.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 842. Drakoen:



Yes. Regardless of that, any poleward movement would help with the system's longevity in the BOC if it makes it there.


Agreed.

The HH just went through what appears to be the same center coordinates. Stall ?

Edit. Just saw the updated center fix.
848. Tcwx2


What's going on? They aren't finding low pressures or as strong of winds this time.
Quoting 844. IDTH:


Because sinking air is prevalent over Africa.




There is rising air where the Catl waves are located.... and still nothing happening with both of them...
985mb at 16.87N
.
Deepening further, 2mb drop since last pass.

985.0 mb
(~ 29.09 inHg)
WNW and close to NW. Interesting.
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I don't believe August is going to be a sleeper after Earl folks. If it looks quiet-ish now, give it at least one week and I bet we'll have another threat to deal with.
Earl definitely seems to be putting on a burst of development- convective energies reminiscent somewhat of RI processes at work... (Looks like a Hurricane at present too) -Hope its does not augur too badly for Belize etc.

Blessings!
Rotation of the TW in the far E Atlantic not too bad. Also, the Wave in front of it with respectable convection
Going to post again and saw Dave ......still can't believe it ......anyway I suspect not another named system in the Caribbean this year any takers?
Many of us monks here at the benedictian monastery have been lurking and taking in all the knowledge of this weather community. It has been a wonderful expierence to learn so much about the storms and what direction they will take.. Lets all pray these mother nater storms keep away from all land ares . Thank you for all your knowledge and accuracy of these weather events