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Tropical Storm Likely to Form in Caribbean; Flash Flood Devastates Ellicott City, MD

By: Bob Henson 2:00 PM GMT on August 01, 2016

The tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean dubbed Invest 97L continued to organize on Sunday night, and it will likely become a tropical depression or tropical storm on Monday and move into the western Caribbean as an intensifying tropical storm over the next day or so. Infrared satellite imagery on Sunday night revealed that shower and thunderstorm activity (convection) had become more intense and far more symmetric around 97L’s core, which was located early Monday morning about 350 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. As of early Monday morning, 97L had not yet consolidated a closed low-level center of circulation, as seen by the lack of westerly winds in the ASCAT scatterometer image in Figure 2 below. However, surface winds were close to tropical storm strength on the north side of the system. As of early Monday morning, a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft was tentatively scheduled to carry out a reconnaissance mission into 97L on Tuesday afternoon.

97L continues to chug westward at 20 to 25 mph, a speed that typically limits the ability of a tropical wave to intensify. In this case, however, upper- and lower-level winds are close enough in speed and direction to reduce the amount of wind shear that would otherwise affect fast-moving 97L. Long-range models agree that wind shear will remain light (around 10 knots or less) for at least the next three to four days, perhaps longer, along 97L’s path. In its 8:00 am EDT Monday tropical weather discussion, the National Hurricane Center gave 97L an 80% chance of development over the next two days. (On occasion, the NHC will bypass tropical depression status and upgrade a strong wave directly to tropical storm status.) 97L will be sweeping just south of Jamaica on Tuesday, perhaps as a moderately strong tropical storm (which would be named Earl], before approaching the Yucatan Peninsula later in the week (see below).


Figure 1. Enhanced infrared image of Invest 97L as of 1245Z (8:45 am EDT) Monday, August 1, 2016. Image credit: CIRA/RAMMB/CSU.


Figure 2. Low-level winds (in knots) detected by the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) aboard the MetOp-A satellite as of 1302Z (9:02 am EDT] Monday, August 1, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS/STAR.

The outlook for 97L
It’s now clear that 97L will survive its trek through the eastern Caribbean, which has long been known as the “hurricane graveyard” thanks to the climatological minimum in tropical cyclone formation over the area. According to a 2010 study in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society led by Owen Shieh (University of Oklahoma), this phenomenon is largely because of a predominant low-level southerly jet in the central Caribbean and an accompanying tendency toward low-level divergence over the eastern Caribbean. This pattern is most prevalent early in the season, peaking in July.

With a sprawling area of upper-level high pressure to its north, 97L should continue on a fairly straightforward west to west-northwest path for at least the next couple of days. There is strong agreement among our best longer-range track models, the ECMWF and GFS, that 97L will move south of Jamaica on Tuesday and approach the Yucatan Peninsula around Thursday. There are no signs of any major changes to the upper-level pattern that would divert 97L from this longer-term path, which could eventually bring it across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche. We will have to watch for any signs of a northward bend in 97L’s path later this week, but no members of the most recent GFS and ECMWF ensemble runs are indicating a track that would bring 97L into the heart of the western Gulf. Residents of Nicaragua and Honduras, and especially Belize, Guatemala, and eastern Mexico, will need to keep a close watch on 97L. Toward the end of the week, 97L could pose a threat to the western coast of the Bay of Campeche if it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and survives the trek.


Figure 3. Oceanic heat content over the Caribbean on July 30, 2016, in kilojoules per square centimeter. The value is produced by integrating the vertical temperature from the ocean surface to the depth of the 26°C contour. 97L will be traveling over a large area of heat content greater than 100 kJ/cm2 on Tuesday and Wednesday. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Extremely warm water lies ahead of 97L
As it sweeps toward the western Caribbean, 97L will encounter a more favorable atmospheric regime as well as ominously warm water both at the surface and below. Sea-surface temperatures (SST) along 97L’s expected path from the area around Jamaica westward are around 29-30°C (84-86°F), which is roughly 1°C above average for this time of year. These warm waters extend to great depths, with large amounts of oceanic heat in the uppermost 200 meters (660 feet) of the northwest Caribbean (see Figure 3). Across the Caribbean and adjacent waters, the breadth and depth of oceanic heat content has been at near-record levels in recent weeks, as we discussed in a post on July 18. High levels of oceanic heat content are a major boon to tropical storm and hurricane intensification, because the storms do not churn up as much cold water as they otherwise would as they intensify. Rapid intensification is often associated with regions of high oceanic heat content, assuming that other conditions are favorable as well.


Figure 4. Infrared satellite image of Tropical Storm Howard at 1300Z (9:00 am EDT) Monday, August 2, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Howard becomes the Eastern Pacific’s eighth tropical storm of the season
Tropical Storm Howard was christened at 5:00 am EDT Monday, August 1, just a few hours too late to become a record-setting eighth tropical storm in the Eastern Pacific during the month of July. When it became a tropical depression on Sunday morning, Howard managed to tie the record, set in July 1985, for the eighth tropical cyclone of at least depression strength to form in the basin. The basin’s record of seven named storms for July, also set in 1985, was tied on July 22 with the formation of Tropical Storm Georgette (which went on to become the basin’s second Category 4 hurricane of the year).

Apart from extending the Eastern Pacific’s remarkable month-long string of tropical cyclones, Howard is unlikely to make much of a splash. At 5:00 am EDT Monday, Howard was located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. As it moves along a west-northwest path well offshore during the next 24 to 36 hours, Howard will have a window of light to moderate wind shear (10-15 knots) and SSTs of around 27°C, but it is not exceptionally well-organized and will have trouble strengthening much beyond mid-range tropical storm intensity. After Tuesday, Howard will encounter much cooler waters and greater shear, and the NHC outlook diminishes Howard to a post-cyclone remnant low by Thursday. The remains of Howard should arc leftward and may pass near or north of Hawaii by next weekend.


Figure 5. VIIRS visible satellite image of Typhoon Nida at 0509Z (1:09 am EDT) Monday, August 1, 2016. The Hong Kong area is outlined in a box along the yellow border denoting the southeast China coast. Image credit: RAMMB/CIRA/CSU.

Nida heads toward Hong Kong
Typhoon Nida continues to chug toward the southeast China coast, where it could make landfall very near Hong Kong. Nida dumped rains of more than 11 inches over parts of northern Luzon as it swept through the northern Philippines over the weekend. Fortunately, Nida has failed to intensify very much, with sustained winds of 70 knots (80 mph) as of the 5:00 am EDT bulletin from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Nida is unlikely to strengthen much further before making landfall on Tuesday night local time (midday Tuesday EDT). Even as a minimal typhoon, Nida may cause a fair bit of disruption for the seven million residents of the Hong Kong area. A number of destructive typhoons have struck in or near Hong Kong, including Wanda (1962), which produced wind gusts of 161 mph in Hong Kong Harbor.



Figure 6. Workers gather by street damage in Ellicott City, Md., on Sunday, July 31, 2016, after Saturday night's flooding. Historic, low-lying Ellicott City, Maryland, was ravaged by floodwaters that killed at least two people and caused devastating damage to homes and businesses, officials said. Image credit: Kevin Rector/The Baltimore Sun via AP.

Two killed as historic Maryland city ravaged by flash flooding
High water poured through the streets of historic Ellicott City, Maryland, on Saturday night in a dramatic flash flood (see YouTube embedded video at bottom) that killed at least two people and left a trail of damage and debris through the historic downtown area. Destruction in the city was reported to be severe, on par with the damage reported in the floods of 1868 and 1972 (the latter associated with Hurricane Agnes). While heavy rains were observed across much of the Washington/Baltimore area on Saturday evening (see Figure 7), the worst was focused near Ellicott City (Figure 8), where a rain gauge maintained by Howard County recorded the following amounts:

DURATION AMOUNT TIMEFRAME
----------------------------------------
1 minute ..0.20” - from 7:51pm-7:52pm
5 minutes ..0.80” - from 7:50pm-7:55pm
10 minutes..1.44” - from 7:50pm-8:00pm
15 minutes..2.04” - from 7:46pm-8:01pm
20 minutes..2.48” - from 7:44pm-8:04pm
30 minutes..3.16” - from 7:36pm-8:06pm
60 minutes..4.56” - from 7:30pm-8:30pm
90 minutes..5.52” - from 7:00pm-8:30pm
2 hours.....5.92” - from 6:45pm-8:45pm

Based on data from NOAA’s Atlas 14, which estimates recurrence intervals for heavy rains, the rainfall amounts within this two-hour interval have a less than one-in-a-thousand chance of occurring in any given year. Across many parts of the nation and globe, the heaviest precipitation events have become increasingly intense in recent years, with more water vapor available in an atmosphere warmed by increasing greenhouse gases paving the way for the potential for heavier rains when conditions are otherwise favorable. A Climate Central analysis shows that the Baltimore area has seen a particularly sharp increase in the heaviest downpours since the 1990s. See my post from July 30 for background on the Big Thompson Flood of July 31, 1976, a disaster that influenced our current warning and safety process for flash flooding.

I’ll be back with an update by Tuesday morning at the latest.

Bob Henson


Figure 7. 24-hour rainfall amounts through 8 am EDT Sunday, July 31, 2016, in the Washington-Baltimore area. Image credit: NWS DC/Baltimore.


Figure 8. Preliminary analysis of 3-hour rainfall totals between 6 and 9 pm EDT on Saturday, July 30, 2016, in the vicinity of Ellicott City, MD. Image credit: Greg Carbin, NOAA/WPC.


Video 1. Astounding video of the Elliott City, MD, flash flood of July 30, 2016. The videographer is looking down from a restaurant as cars float through the road! The video is a powerful reminder of the need to avoid being in vehicles during high water. Two feet of flowing water is enough to float most vehicles (even SUVs). Video credit: Nezacant.

Hurricane Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 1487. washingtonian115:

Lol I said 97L (aka son of Ernesto) had Mexico written all over it and was mocked and ganged up on. same as it ever was.... Same as it ever was....
At this rate it may end up going into Honduras.....
Quoting 1491. gunhilda:

I went to bed last night thinking that Jamaica had done the right thing in posting warnings, but I'm wondering now if they'll take a lot of heat for doing so. I believe in "better safe than sorry," and they were trying to protect their people, but many will second guess them since they didn't act in sync with NHC, and 97L slipped largely south. Of course, it appears more convection is building to the north, so I suppose conditions could still deteriorate this morning. I certainly don't envy the people making these types of decisions with situations like the flooding in Dominica haunting our memory.


Kingston, Jamaica - Better safe than sorry. We don't do well with storms. Many people live in low lying areas that are usually adversely affected. Weathermen aren't God. Yesterday (Monday) was a public holiday. Govt cancelled a number of public functions but I do believe it was the right thing to do. Can't take a risk with public safety.

It has just started raining in my area now (Norbrook). Don't mind the rain. Don't need a storm. Have a great day!
1503. Drakoen
Shear is 20-25 knots over 97L combined with its forward speed is why we are seeing it unravel at the moment.
1504. Gearsts
Quoting 1503. Drakoen:

Shear is 20-25 knots over 97L combined with its forward speed is why we are seeing it unravel at the moment.


Lot of broken hearts on here this morning
Quoting 1474. GatorWX:

Thinking that's the lower vort max racing out to the west, but hard to tell if it's closed or not. With or without the plane, we should be able to get an idea from a couple few visibles.






can see the somewhat abrupt flattening of the western side of the convection indicating some shear issues IMO
1507. vis0
CREDIT:: NASA(top),
NOAA/NASA/PSU(bottom).
D&T:: On each image panel/frame. (tried to sync
dates, 1 frame if off sync next to last frame)
NOTE1:: Notice angle difference in sat
imagery
NOTE2:: org title is "97L zombie in TS graveyard"
(inspired by what i think aquak9 and washi115 would call it...maybe already did
have not read since pg7#3371 of Dr. Masters/Henson on WxFull* i mean wunderground.
aniGIF(4.92MB/5.06MB)
image host
*can't use strikeout so
used grayout
Yaaaaaawwwwwnnnn
Quoting 1488. wunderkidcayman:



Yes and yes indeed

It does worry me because this can ramp up quicker than most people think
Also remember the extremely high heat potential around our area
Another thing convection starting to refire


Good morning

97L is almost due South of us now and racing Westward with the LLC exposed. I don't see any threat from it other than some rain of which we only had .01 of an inch last night in South Sound
1510. Gearsts
TS Chris part deux.
Some teaser showers off shore. Today and tomorrow is East Central Florida's best chance of a sprinkle or some dry lightning.

GEOS-5 has switched it up over the last 24hrs. Second run this shows 97L going into Honduras/Nicaragua..

Now it has it lifting moisture and spinning up maybe 96L remains to the north west after hitting land. That tries to thread the needle but hits Yucatan and then goes all out hurricane into South Texas/Mexico.

It's also showing the wave currently coming off Africa making it to Florida at the very end. Doesn't develop it yet but has it produce some real widespread rain...yeah 10 days out & probably not happening but everything is brown..we could use hope of real rain.
97L has peak it seem i do not see this be comeing a hurricane at all


the the recon can find a closed low look for a weaking 97L
Quoting 1491. gunhilda:

I went to bed last night thinking that Jamaica had done the right thing in posting warnings, but I'm wondering now if they'll take a lot of heat for doing so. I believe in "better safe than sorry," and they were trying to protect their people, but many will second guess them since they didn't act in sync with NHC, and 97L slipped largely south. Of course, it appears more convection is building to the north, so I suppose conditions could still deteriorate this morning. I certainly don't envy the people making these types of decisions with situations like the flooding in Dominica haunting our memory.
They already had the heavy rain associated with TSs over the western half of the island yesterday. Don't know how windy it got. If people want to give them flak for the warning, they can always point to the gale warning NHC issued. Furthermore, since 97L seems likely to be designated Earl today, they would still be in the development window ....
1516. GatorWX
Quoting 1505. VAbeachhurricanes:



Lot of broken hearts on here this morning


On the other hand, looks like we have a TC. :)
Quoting 1504. Gearsts:




Probably the best satellite representation of a confirmed low level circulation since invest 97L entered the Caribbean, which has now outran it's Upper level anti-cyclone support.
Quoting 1502. kimoskee:



Kingston, Jamaica - Better safe than sorry. We don't do well with storms. Many people live in low lying areas that are usually adversely affected. Weathermen aren't God. Yesterday (Monday) was a public holiday. Govt cancelled a number of public functions but I do believe it was the right thing to do. Can't take a risk with public safety.

It has just started raining in my area now (Norbrook). Don't mind the rain. Don't need a storm. Have a great day!
Hey, kim! Glad to hear that at least so far impacts have not been too bad. Hope this is as bad as it gets for you guys..... stay safe, and enjoy the rain.....
It'll get classified now, as usual when it looks it worse.
1520. Grothar
Wave looking healthy and vigorous.


Good morning everyone I see 97l has alot of folks at the edge of their seat. Life is interesting isn't it? More so the weather. Keep your eyes on the storm, if not you might just miss something! Have a great day
Quoting 1505. VAbeachhurricanes:



Lot of broken hearts on here this morning
Not mine.... 97L has been fun to watch without, so far, causing destruction on a massive scale. I can live with that.
here what the NHC could have saide


conditions have be come less favorable
Having some doubt for 97L becoming named, low level circulation speeding away from convection and shear is an issue time running out but anything can happen in West Caribbean.
I must say.... I'm really impressed how the NHC has handled this invest so far. I must admit I was a doubter yesterday thinking that it was in fact a TS, but again, the experts have been really spot on. Nice job!
Quoting 1520. Grothar:

Wave looking healthy and vigorous.





yea lets forget about snoozefest 97 boring steering currents
Quoting 1488. wunderkidcayman:



Yes and yes indeed

It does worry me because this can ramp up quicker than most people think
Also remember the extremely high heat potential around our area
Another thing convection starting to refire


WKC, I don't think you need to be worried. The system is well south of you. Even if/when it starts to ramp up it will be long past you. You'll get some squally weather and 20-30 mph wind. Nothing the Caymans can't handle.
i have a feeling that 97L will not get named wish is ok with me has now 97L is in a has conditions have be come less favorable
97L is not looking very organized at the moment. There is still a little time for it to strengthen and get a name, before making landfall. It is still moving fairly quickly.

It is interesting how so many tropical systems move WSW when they get stuck in the extreme SW Gulf or W Caribbean, in the lower latitudes. Maybe not interesting for those who want to chase a big storm!

Although the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season got off to an early start, it is not abnormal that we had a slow July.

Will this year be a post-1983, or post-1997 (after El Nino) hurricane season?

Still thinking 2016 will be a more active September-October hurricane season.
Quoting 1504. Gearsts:



i agree, but it's definitely closed at the moment
Quoting 1319. HurricaneAndre:


CLOSED. PURE AND SIMPLE.

Very Much so indeed, However, Ironically I'm sure that now 'Pre Earl' or Invest 97L Earl has a more ragged and less impressive appearance that the long sought after Closed Surface Circulation will be found. Its amazing how subjective in a real sense classification and designations of tropical systems have to end up being. This is definitely One for the RECORD books, the post season review and analysis God willing should be great. I truly wish I could form part of that review body...in the meantime while the designation saga continues -real lives have been lost already in the wake of Pre Earl.

I continue to strongly push for the Pre-classification advisories as commendably modeled in the case of Jamaica and the Cayman island Government authorities which both Issued Tropical Storm Watches in advance of the Threat posed by 'Pre- Earl'
This Precedent would certainly be welcomed in the Lesser Antilles/ Greater Antilles Islands where often there is sense of under-preparation and complacency surrounding approaching non-designated tropical disturbances (perceived as result as not all threatening or potentially deadly) that unfortunately often intensify near or over the islands -subsequently becoming deserving of rapid Classification often to the shock of many residents. This is currently a critical preparedness situation issue that needs resolution in the soonest for all islanders concerned. Sadly, not only were lives lost in the Dominican Republic but one confirmed death has been recorded due the passage of 97L near Dominica over the weekend as a result of some flash flooding in areas so prone since Erika. Again this was one life- WAY Too many. May her Soul Rest in Peace.
Condolences also extended to those affected by the mammoth flash floods in Elliott City, MD. Have Faith in God- This Too shall pass- Weeping may endure through the night but Joy Cometh in the morning...Psalm 30:5

God Bless!
1532. vis0
Forgot to add to cmmnt on pg30 or 31 (this Bbyte) when i though 97L was a TD (IMunHO) trying to become a TS SE of Puerto Rico. i think it was  from July 31st at 22:00UTC tilll August 1st 2016 at 03:00 after 3UTC you can see the reds beginning to flare outwardly (whispiness) then a few hrs later the outer IR colours showing the pTwF(my shrthand for "+ tropical weather formation") reacting (i guess) to the mountainous regions of Hispaniola. 
unasked for info::  For those wondering as to ml-d effects remember since 2010 i posted that of the next 11 years (or 2010 till 2021) 2 to 3 of the years pTwF will act as if no ml-d is around it has to do (i state) with when ml-d resonances match the influencing star's (SUN) resonance dance with the complex planet (earth) this just might be one of those periods, though i am watching to see how 97L acts to a point when the lowering pressures near the ml-d rise finally think tonite.  More on my "ml-d diary" blog (not the "zilly blog") later this month on that, for the 5 that read that crap.

G'morning. 97L (Earl) has already taken lives, sadly. And, it should serve as a huge wake up call for the rest of the season. The pattern is in place and conditions are formidable for a major and a CONUS landfall. Mostly dodged a bullet this time; next time may not be so fortunate. Happy watching and have a great day, all.
Quoting 1529. Stormwatch247:

97L is not looking very organized at the moment. There is still a little time for it to strengthen and get a name, before making landfall. It is still moving fairly quickly.

It is interesting how so many tropical systems move WSW when they get stuck in the extreme SW Gulf or W Caribbean, in the lower latitudes. Maybe not interesting for those who want to chase a big storm!

Although the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season got off to an early start, it is not abnormal that we had a slow July.

Will this year be a post-1983, or post-1997 (after El Nino) hurricane season?

Still thinking 2016 will be a more active September-October hurricane season.



Agree with the latter
Quoting 1530. TheDeathStar:


i agree, but it's definitely closed at the moment

you can almost see the loc on the bottom of the radar
97L's cloud cover is trying to keep close to the LLC. I guess we'll see if this shear continues or lightens later on in the day.
Quoting 1508. RitaEvac:

Yaaaaaawwwwwnnnn
Coffee will cure that.
Quoting 1512. Skyepony:

Some teaser showers off shore. Today and tomorrow is East Central Florida's best chance of a sprinkle or some dry lightning
It's still overcast and humid in SFL... maybe you guys will get some of this as the day progresses...
1538. Loduck
Quoting 1437. JrWeathermanFL:

This all had been really frustrating and I'm not sure who to blame.
Ourselves, the NHC, or Mother Nature
Well, if the HH had flown earlier then maybe we would have had more answers sooner. But, I'm sure they are limited by protocol so maybe they could/should review their guidelines?
Quoting 1529. Stormwatch247:

97L is not looking very organized at the moment. There is still a little time for it to strengthen and get a name, before making landfall. It is still moving fairly quickly.

It is interesting how so many tropical systems move WSW when they get stuck in the extreme SW Gulf or W Caribbean, in the lower latitudes. Maybe not interesting for those who want to chase a big storm!

Although the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season got off to an early start, it is not abnormal that we had a slow July.

Will this year be a post-1983, or post-1997 (after El Nino) hurricane season?

Still thinking 2016 will be a more active September-October hurricane season.



i agreed i do not see a active AUG i think we will see about 10 too 12 storms this year or about the same has last year
Is 98L going to be designated soon? That wave looks pretty impressive
Quoting 1513. thetwilightzone:

97L has peak it seem i do not see this be comeing a hurricane at all


the the recon can find a closed low look for a weaking 97L
Is that you, Taz?
Quoting 1487. washingtonian115:

Lol I said 97L (aka son of Ernesto) had Mexico written all over it and was mocked and ganged up on. same as it ever was.... Same as it ever was....


I like the Talkin Heads! LoL
Woke up this morning all excited to track at least a TD but disappointed. All I can say is whether or not this develops, we all have been busy watching a system that exited Africa and SURVIVED ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC and through the Carrib "ts graveyard" in JULY/AUGUST! Cannot remember the last time this happened this early in the season! 2004-2005? Anyhow, my gut feeling is this is our "practice run" and there just might be wsy too much excitement, sleepless nights, annoying trolling heading our as the season peaks. Our boy Earl still has a chance to go from a gorgeous blob to at least a TD or TS and make Papa Gro so proud. So let's chill, enjoy this one and wait for the big one that might materialize this season. Kudos to all of you posting awesome, helpful posts as usual. Love this blog but already poofed 1 troll! Probably more when everything ramps up. Hoping we have fun. Watching, predicting and learning this season with no. Loss of life or damage to any lsnd mass along the way.
Quoting 1541. BahaHurican:

Is that you, Taz?


no its lady gaga in the kissing booth

lol a joke



yes its me
Quoting 1498. Gearsts:

I pointed that out yesterday and got shutdown for it. I guess shear is bigger player than we all thought.

Im more concerned with the wave in the eastern Atlantic, once it pulls away from Africa, it can definitely strengthen. conditions are pretty good, warm water temps, low shear and low sal, i think we might get a new invest soon
Quoting 1528. thetwilightzone:

i have a feeling that 97L will not get named wish is ok with me has now 97L is in a has conditions have be come less favorable


Regardless whether 97 gets named it will sure pour lots of rain on Belize, Guatemala & Yucatan Peninsula and as a consequence there will be lives lost-especially in Guatemalan highlands.
Quoting 1541. BahaHurican:

Is that you, Taz?


Could maybe be an impostor? It's happened before unfortunately.
Quoting 1544. thetwilightzone:



no its lady gaga in the kissing booth

lol a joke



yes its me
I not kissing no Lady Gaga Nowhere!
:-)
Okay... now I will remember the name ....
1549. 19N81W
at least Jamaica got rain...I know they needed it.....we had some in east end apparently and some unrelated rain earlier in the week...still need more
Quoting 1517. ILwthrfan:



Probably the best satellite representation of a confirmed low level circulation since invest 97L entered the Caribbean, which has now outran it's Upper level anti-cyclone support.
1550. GatorWX
I stated the other day, when 97 first had a complex of thunderstorms blow up, that the symmetrical appearance had much to do with the tight anticyclone above it. Now that the ac is essentially gone, or much broader and shear has increased a good bit, we have what appears to be a tc, albeit much more disheveled looking. Cause and effect, but it likely would've had a much less convincing sat representation regardless. Kind of an illusion when there's nothing happenin' at the surface. Probably should be initialized as a 40kt TS, but I'm no NHC expert. Where's the plane? Surprised nobody's posting data. Guess I'll take my lazy butt over to Levi's site as I don't have any links on this computer... mrrrr.
Quoting 1548. BahaHurican:

I not kissing no Lady Gaga Nowhere!
:-)
Okay... now I will remember the name ....


It was a joke lol
Quoting 1547. ElConando:



Could maybe be an impostor? It's happened before unfortunately.
No, it's really him. He changed his tag yesterday but I couldn't remember it. Now I will.
1553. GatorWX


Gittin' there...
I think I found that joke a bit funny
Quoting 1550. GatorWX:

I stated the other day, when 97 first had a complex of thunderstorms blow up, that the symmetrical appearance had much to do with the tight anticyclone above it. Now that the ac is essentially gone, or much broader and shear has increased a good bit, we have what appears to be a tc, albeit much more disheveled looking. Cause and effect, but it likely would've had a much less convincing sat representation regardless. Kind of an illusion when there's nothing happenin' at the surface. Probably should be initialized as a 40kt TS, but I'm no NHC expert. Where's the plane? Surprised nobody's posting data. Guess I'll take my lazy butt over to Levi's site as I don't have any links on this computer... mrrrr.
Suffering similarly... some stuff is harder to do on a tablet, IMO......
Still overcast here.....


Apparently from a ULL over the northern Bahamas. There may be hope for the central FL coast after all ...
Quoting 1550. GatorWX:

I stated the other day, when 97 first had a complex of thunderstorms blow up, that the symmetrical appearance had much to do with the tight anticyclone above it. Now that the ac is essentially gone, or much broader and shear has increased a good bit, we have what appears to be a tc, albeit much more disheveled looking. Cause and effect, but it likely would've had a much less convincing sat representation regardless. Kind of an illusion when there's nothing happenin' at the surface. Probably should be initialized as a 40kt TS, but I'm no NHC expert. Where's the plane? Surprised nobody's posting data. Guess I'll take my lazy butt over to Levi's site as I don't have any links on this computer... mrrrr.
Plane is just approaching 97L.Link
Quoting 1519. RitaEvac:

It'll get classified now, as usual when it looks it worse.


You've hit the nail on the head I'm afraid...perhaps this counter-intuitive logic as sub-rationale as it may be has some truly esoteric appeal to NHC meteorological reasoning. This dilemma of Atlantic system designation & classification needs urgent addressing for sure...because ASCAT etc. will not always be 100% dependable and neither will the Hurricane Hunters always be able to correctly ascertain the true intensity of every system -whenever they decide to fly out and do their Investigation/ sample runs at random.
Blessings!
Quoting 1554. thetwilightzone:

I think I found that joke a bit funny
I LOLed at the thought of you dressed up as Lady Gaga....
:-)
Quoting 1556. BahaHurican:

Still overcast here.....


Apparently from a ULL over the northern Bahamas. There may be hope for the central FL coast after all ...


It was pretty windy by me last night, thought there was a low near by. But as usual, all the rain goes around me or dissipates right as it is about to hit :/
1563. GatorWX
Quoting 1555. BahaHurican:

Suffering similarly... some stuff is harder to do on a tablet, IMO......


YES! I had to borrow a laptop because my tab was so slow to load anything from WU. I can't even get it to open the Tropics page. My laptop has all the links, but it's incredibly slow too. I do like a physical keyboard though if I'm going to be doing a good amount of typing. Kind of anal about spelling and grammar lol. Frustrating for sure!
With the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season starting to ramp up, there are SO many populated metro areas that are overdue for the BIG one.

Here are some select locations:


Tampa, FL - it has been 1921 since your last big one, with winds over 100MPH.

Savannah, GA - The entire Georgia Coast has not seen a "major" since the 1800s.

Jacksonville, FL - Dora hit in 1964. Since then, most hurricanes have passed just offshore.

Corpus Christi, TX - Although Bret (1999) was a scare, your last big one was Celia in 1970.

Ft. Lauderdale-West palm Beach, FL - Andrew (1992) stayed to the south; and Frances/Jeanne (2004) hit to your north.

The US Eastern Seaboard - Although Superstorm Sandy (2012) hit the Northeast, we have not seen another hurricane like Donna (1960), or the hurricanes of 1954-55 slam the Eastern Seaboard (Carol, Edna, Hazel, Connie, Diane, Ione)


Yes, there are other areas not mentioned.
Wherever you live, have your hurricane plan ready, just in case!



Good Morning - wet picnic table at BiCentennial Park this morning due more to sprinklers than rain.
Since it entered the Caribbean 97L has looked better then Colin at anytime, its beyond me how this can't and hasn't be classified. The problem is it's encountering slightly unfavorable conditions with the shear putting the breaks on further organization.
Quoting 1564. Stormwatch247:

With the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season starting to ramp up, there are SO many populated metro areas that are overdue for the BIG one.

Here are some select locations:


Tampa, FL - it has been 1921 since your last big one, with winds over 100MPH.

Savannah, GA - The entire Georgia Coast has not seen a "major" since the 1800s.

Jacksonville, FL - Dora hit in 1964. Since then, most hurricanes have passed just offshore.

Corpus Christi, TX - Although Bret (1999) was a scare, your last big one was Celia in 1970.

Ft. Lauderdale-West palm Beach, FL - Andrew (1992) stayed to the south; and Frances/Jeanne (2004) hit to your north.

The US Eastern Seaboard - Although Superstorm Sandy (2012) hit the Northeast, we have not seen another hurricane like Donna (1960), or the hurricanes of 1954-55 slam the Eastern Seaboard (Carol, Edna, Hazel, Connie, Diane, Ione)


Yes, there are other areas not mentioned.
Wherever you live, have your hurricane plan ready, just in case!





Hurricane Wilma was a direct hit on northern Broward County in 2005. Was a big storm and technically a cat 3 as it passed over the County with 120 mph winds.
97L looking ugly this morning, although a WNW moving (or so it seems) low cloud swirl is evident around 17.1N 80W. Some shear seems to be impacting it at the moment. Soon we shall find out the real scoop.

Otherwise, yes... That wave in the eastern tropical Atlantic sure looks good. Be interesting to see what becomes of that.
1569. 19N81W
looked to me in has been going ssw
You know what I think is the most interesting thing is about this storm. The number of comments about an invest.Yes it's the first one in the Caribbean for a long time,and is pretty much a tropical storm. Still it's only an invest.I really think the blog will crash once we get a major or a cat 5 in the Caribbean or Gulf.
Quoting 1563. GatorWX:



YES! I had to borrow a laptop because my tab was so slow to load anything from WU. I can't even get it to open the Tropics page. My laptop has all the links, but it's incredibly slow too. I do like a physical keyboard though if I'm going to be doing a good amount of typing. Kind of anal about spelling and grammar lol. Frustrating for sure!
Same here... Tablet is useful but frustrating... So much work just to post a graphic!
1567. OMGtheskyisfalling
1:45 PM GMT on August 02, 2016

Hurricane Wilma was a direct hit on northern Broward County in 2005. Was a big storm and technically a cat 3 as it passed over the County with 120 mph winds.

Wilma was definitely a Major for South Florida! What I fear is another 1947 hurricane or 1926 hurricane hitting your area, but YES, Wilma should rank up there, and it came from your southwest!

I don't know about the rest of FL but it's raining buckets here on the NWFL panhandle.

Times like this when you wish you had a nice camera with a telephoto lens instead of just a phone.
The hawk perched there for several minutes, giving a curious squirrel the eyeball before she finally flew away - after Dexter trotted over to inquire why he was no longer the center of attention.
Quoting 1569. 19N81W:

looked to me in has been going ssw
I thought at first but now I believe its going wnw.
Eastern Atlantic tropical wave sure looks rather healthy. Where are the models taking it?
1577. beell
GFS 200 mb winds at 48 hrs in this frame. 97L would be approaching the coast of Belize.



Quoting 1567. OMGtheskyisfalling:



Hurricane Wilma was a direct hit on northern Broward County in 2005. Was a big storm and technically a cat 3 as it passed over the County with 120 mph winds.
Good informant comment
Quoting 1501. BahaHurican:

At this rate it may end up going into Honduras.....
Nothing against you Baha but the two people who upped your post were also against me.They don't want crow served to them.I do believe the wave out in the central Atlantic has a decent shot at make something of its self.
Quoting 1572. Stormwatch247:

Hurricane Wilma was a direct hit on northern Broward County in 2005. Was a big storm and technically a cat 3 as it passed over the County with 120 mph winds.

Wilma was definitely a Major for South Florida! What I fear is another 1947 hurricane or 1926 hurricane hitting your area, but YES, Wilma should rank up there, and it came from your southwest!


Check out the History tab in Hurricane Protocol 2016 (my blog). I'm trying to complete the dossier of all hurricanes affecting PBC in the last 100 years. Any help filling in the blanks would be greatly appreciated. I've written Chris Landsea to hopefully get some clarification on stats from the Atlantic Hurricane ReAnalysis Project. He's always responded to me before, but this is a bad time of year to write the NHC and expect any kind of quick response to a complicated question.
BTW - the AHRP page also has a link to it's detailed (Re-analysis) report on Hurricane Camille.
Quoting 1580. mikatnight:



Check out the History tab in Hurricane Protocol 2016 (my blog). I'm trying to complete the dossier of all hurricanes affecting PBC in the last 100 years. Any help filling in the blanks would be greatly appreciated. I've written Chris Landsea to hopefully get some clarification on stats from the Atlantic Hurricane ReAnalysis Project. He's always responded to me before, but this is a bad time of year to write the NHC and expect any kind of quick response to a complicated question.
BTW - the AHRP page also has a link to it's detailed (Re-analysis) report on Hurricane Camille.


Interesting. Great project. I dug this from archives some years back. Has the met's handwriting on it. (Camille, '69).
HH finding nothing impressive wind or pressure wise so far
Quoting 1487. washingtonian115:

Lol I said 97L (aka son of Ernesto) had Mexico written all over it and was mocked and ganged up on. same as it ever was.... Same as it ever was....
Don't worry, dinner will be served to those who mocked and ganged up.
Really interesting video from Maryland, thank you.

OT: Anthrax outbreak triggered by climate change sickens dozens in Arctic Circle

Link
1585. GetReal


IMO the LLC that was associated with 97L has become decoupled, and is racing off towards the WNW near 17.1N and 80W.
Quoting 1579. washingtonian115:

Nothing against you Baha but the two people who upped your post were also against me.They don't want crow served to them.I do believe the wave out in the central Atlantic has a decent shot to make something of its self.
I believe Honduras is too south, I am betting Belize or Yucatan for landfall.
Regardless of whether 97L is closed now, it will likely close off eventually. ECMWF shows "Earl" making landfall in Belize at 991 mbar in its most recent run. I feel like the ECMWF initialization may be a bit off, though, as it appears to initialize it as a fully closed tropical storm. GFS shows it closing off just before landfall. Models never really showed it closing off until tomorrow anyway.




According to the surface winds from this app, the coc appears to be to the west or sw of the blob.
Quoting 1585. GetReal:



IMO the LLC that was associated with 97L has become decoupled, and is racing off towards the WNW near 17.1N and 80W.


Definitely some sort of circulation got ejected out. Storms firing back up to the south. Wouldn't be surprised to see the circulation reform there. Nothing rapid as of now, that's for sure.
1590. Kyon5

Yesterday evening - another storm passes by with nary a sprinkle.
Quoting 1579. washingtonian115:

Nothing against you Baha but the two people who upped your post were also against me.They don't want crow served to them.I do believe the wave out in the central Atlantic has a decent shot to make something of its self.
I'm in no contest with anybody. As a matter of fact I can't even see who pluses my posts. Anyway, you know my philosophy: sooner or later the wx will prove you right or wrong, so to stress oneself or others about it is a waste of time.

I'm just thinking this wave hasn't done a whole lot of what people have been expecting. I also saw a couple of streamline / steering maps which suggest a WSW track as 97L approaches the Central American coast ... so unless we actually see a TS formation today, which would then IMO make that MX landfall pretty likely, anywhere from Cancun to Nicaragua seems like fair game for this thing.
Quoting 1580. mikatnight:



Check out the History tab in Hurricane Protocol 2016 (my blog). I'm trying to complete the dossier of all hurricanes affecting PBC in the last 100 years. Any help filling in the blanks would be greatly appreciated. I've written Chris Landsea to hopefully get some clarification on stats from the Atlantic Hurricane ReAnalysis Project. He's always responded to me before, but this is a bad time of year to write the NHC and expect any kind of quick response to a complicated question.
BTW - the AHRP page also has a link to it's detailed (Re-analysis) report on Hurricane Camille.
There's a book in here somewhere.... Certainly Boca got slammed by Wilma ... I remember spending time there in May / June 2006 and being amazed at how the trees were still stripped of foliage ... hadn't grown back as yet.
Quoting 1589. Bucsboltsfan:



Definitely some sort of circulation got ejected out. Storms firing back up to the south. Wouldn't be surprised to see the circulation reform there. Nothing rapid as of now, that's for sure.
If it happens Honduras will be in the bullseye, but I really doubt that is going to happen. Most models are prediction a west or west northwest movement.
1594. ricderr
Quoting 1585. GetReal:



IMO the LLC that was associated with 97L has become decoupled, and is racing off towards the WNW near 17.1N and 80W.



well...who let you out of your cage....LOL.....nice to see you
I think I see the LLC closed up too at 17.3N 80.0W moving WNW

Also blossoming convective blob to its SE and NE
1596. Grothar
With 6 deaths in the Dominican Republic from 97L, it is a reminder to us, that even a disorganized system can be dangerous. The possibility still exists for further strengthening beyond TS status ahead. The GFDL is the outlier with a more WNW movement. However, with the strong ridge still in place, this is unlikely. Let us hope it does not get much stronger.
1597. Houdude
For those who've already consigned 97L to the meteorological dust bin, it is only now reaching the sweet spot that produced Hurricane Carla. To quote Debra Winger in Black Widow, "Truth is, its not over."
Quoting 1586. allancalderini:

I believe Honduras is too south, I am betting Belize or Yucatan for landfall.
Right now, I'd believe Costa Rica or Cuba .... lol ... though to be fair to 97L it has been relentless in the WNW motion .... lol ...

Now that I'm thinking about it, which of the two super-models had the storm continuing as a wave to this point?
Quoting 1591. mikatnight:


Yesterday evening - another storm passes by with nary a sprinkle.
Is that a coconut or a crab in the foreground?
1599. Gearsts
Quoting 1595. wunderkidcayman:

I think I see the LLC closed up too at 17.3N 80.0W moving WNW

Also blossoming convective blob to its SE and NE
Link
Hard to believe Euro would be over doing the strength of this storm before Landfall into Mexico as something near a CAT 1. 97L not looking great now and I am questioning what this will become I just can't discount Euro, I trust what it sees and the water temps are just boiling out there.
It's getting into an area of stronger winds, not west winds yet though.
Quoting 1590. Kyon5:




The ITZ is all lit up waiting for some action.
Quoting 1597. Houdude:

For those who've already consigned 97L to the meteorological dust bin, it is only now reaching the sweet spot that produced Hurricane Carla. To quote Debra Winger in Black Widow, "Truth is, its not over."
[Hides meteorological dust bin behind couch] What dustbin? There is no dustbin!!!
1604. Patrap
Who,what,when,where?
Quoting 1598. BahaHurican:

Right now, I'd believe Costa Rica or Cuba .... lol ... though to be fair to 97L it has been relentless in the WNW motion .... lol ...

Now that I'm thinking about it, which of the two super-models had the storm continuing as a wave to this point?
Is that a coconut or a crab in the foreground?
Horseshoe crab.
Next HH update should give us our answer
Quoting 1573. hurcoloid:

I don't know about the rest of FL but it's raining buckets here on the NWFL panhandle.


Sure is, I made it to work just in time to avoid getting soaked!
Quoting 1605. stormwatcherCI:

Horseshoe crab.
's what I thought, but wasn't sure.

Quoting 1604. Patrap:

Who,what,when,where?
Does this mean we already know How and Why?

"Hey Dad, did you know there's a hawk on the Gazebo railing right behind you?"
1610. Patrap
AF303 Mission #02 into INVEST
Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: In Storm

As of 14:24 UTC Aug 02, 2016:
Aircraft Position: 16.75°N 80.38°W
Bearing: 180° at 120 kt
Altitude: 303 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 33 kt at 73°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1011.6 mb




Quoting 1543. CitikatzSouthFL:

Woke up this morning all excited to track at least a TD but disappointed. All I can say is whether or not this develops, we all have been busy watching a system that exited Africa and SURVIVED ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC and through the Carrib "ts graveyard" in JULY/AUGUST! Cannot remember the last time this happened this early in the season! 2004-2005? Anyhow, my gut feeling is this is our "practice run" and there just might be wsy too much excitement, sleepless nights, annoying trolling heading our as the season peaks. Our boy Earl still has a chance to go from a gorgeous blob to at least a TD or TS and make Papa Gro so proud. So let's chill, enjoy this one and wait for the big one that might materialize this season. Kudos to all of you posting awesome, helpful posts as usual. Love this blog but already poofed 1 troll! Probably more when everything ramps up. Hoping we have fun. Watching, predicting and learning this season with no. Loss of life or damage to any lsnd mass along the way.


*Cough*

Hurricane Ernesto (2006)



Major Hurricane Dean (2007)



Major Hurricane Gustav (2008)



Hurricane Ernesto (2012)



Hurricane Isaac (2012)

The blow up of convection on the south side might try to relocate and form a center
1613. GetReal


97L should begin to slow down its' forward motion of 20-25mph, to somewhere in the neighborhood of 15-20 mph over the next few hours (this afternoon).
Investicane watch?
The HH is registering 55 Km/H winds, already a tropical depresion.
1598 - Hey Baha. It's a horseshoe crab (deceased) hanging out on top of the dock piling.
Looks like there is a second LLC a new one further SE that is under the convective blob both first and second LLC seem to be moving WNW to NW

So far on recons mission so far so good
Quoting 1609. mikatnight:


"Hey Dad, did you know there's a hawk on the Gazebo railing right behind you?"
Such a handsome boy .... lol ....
1619. Tcwx2

They found 40-45 knot flight level winds with a lowering pressure and a gradual wind shift so far. Can I say it for the third straight day?; I think we have Earl.
1620. Ed22
Its getting their invest 97L have sucked it low level circulation back where it belongs. The National Hurricane Center could inneciate advisory on it later this afternoon, any updates on the invest 97L investigating by the Reconnaissance aircraft weather enthusiasts...
Quoting 1613. GetReal:



97L should begin to slow down its' forward motion of 20-25mph, to somewhere in the neighborhood of 15-20 mph over the next few hours (this afternoon).
If this happens, I'd expect tonight to be the night we see something happen. The biggest enemy of cyclogenesis with this system has been that forward speed discombobulating everything all the time....
Fairly strong winds found by recon on west side
thank god recon is there so we can settle this 5000 comment back and forth over a closed LLC!
When a tropical system does not perform as expected - that is what makes it more exciting~!~! Or Not?

This is a GREAT site, and it is fun, but also very informative.
Quoting 1619. Tcwx2:


They found 40-45 knot flight level winds with a lowering pressure and a gradual wind shift so far. Can I say it for the third straight day?; I think we have Earl.


Wat fijn om te horen.

Helps when the planes there.

Quoting 1611. Webberweather53:



*Cough*

Hurricane Ernesto (2006)




Our last run-in with a (nearly hurricane) landfall.
Quoting 1622. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Fairly strong winds found by recon on west side

But no west winds found yet.
Say hello to Earl.

Quoting 1627. VAbeachhurricanes:

Say hello to Earl.



Is that west winds?
1629. Ed22
Quoting 1622. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Fairly strong winds found by recon on west side
How strong wind are?
Quoting 1623. FyrtleMyrtle:

thank god recon is there so we can settle this 5000 comment back and forth over a closed LLC!
If we do get Earl today, and we see some [modest] RI over the next 24 - 36, anybody think we might see a cat 3 before first landfall? After all, we're talking about the greatest TCHP bearing waters in the ATL ....
Lowest pressure found 1008 mb. Highest winds so far 34 kts. No west winds found as yet.
Did they find the center? Around 16.1 north?

Edit: 16.22 north.
Quoting 1611. Webberweather53:



*Cough*

Hurricane Ernesto (2006)



Major Hurricane Dean (2007)



Major Hurricane Gustav (2008)



Hurricane Ernesto (2012)



Hurricane Isaac (2012)




Thanks for that update, but none of these started as an invest almost immediately after exiting the African coast in July and holding together all the way across the Atlantic and thru the Carrib graveyard. These types of storms are usually late August into Sept as your posts show. Just saying I am QUITE impressed with our "blob". He's come a long way, baby! Hope he makes it to at least a TD.
1634. LargoFl
Quoting 1630. BahaHurican:

If we do get Earl today, and we see some [modest] RI over the next 24 - 36, anybody think we might see a cat 3 before first landfall? After all, we're talking about the greatest TCHP bearing waters in the ATL ....


No still moving too quickly and moderate shear. Could make a run at minimal hurricane though.
1636. Gearsts
Finally a TS when it looks the worst lol
Quoting 1520. Grothar:

Wave looking healthy and vigorous.





But if it wants to develop nicely it has to move WNW towards the N Leewards after 55W and with a moderate speed. If not, then it should be another weak system racing west with no significant chance of development until (maybe) the NW Caribbean. We saw this in 2012 (Ernesto, TD7, Isaac), also in 2013 (Chantal). I don't like that kind of systems. Gonzalo however, took its time to reach the islands, had time to become a hurricane before reaching us, and so moved farther north than initially forecast.
Quoting 1632. Bucsboltsfan:

Did they find the center? Around 16.1 north?


Yep right on 80W, 1002mb
Quoting 1558. NatureIsle:



You've hit the nail on the head I'm afraid...perhaps this counter-intuitive logic as sub-rationale as it may be has some truly esoteric appeal to NHC meteorological reasoning. This dilemma of Atlantic system designation & classification needs urgent addressing for sure...because ASCAT etc. will not always be 100% dependable and neither will the Hurricane Hunters always be able to correctly ascertain the true intensity of every system -whenever they decide to fly out and do their Investigation/ sample runs at random.
Blessings!

Have any better ideas because I'd love to hear them
NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Earl with a Special Advisory to be issued before noon EDT.
Special Message from NHC Issued 2 Aug 2016 14:49 UTC
NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Earl with a Special Advisory to be issued before noon EDT.
Quoting 1626. stormwatcherCI:


But no west winds found yet.


Recon just went to center and may have just found a west wind if I'm not mistaken
1643. Kyon5
Edit: Already beat to it.
1644. LargoFl
Special Message from NHC Issued 2 Aug 2016 14:49 UTC


NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Earl with a Special Advisory to be issued before noon EDT.
Quoting 1636. Gearsts:

Finally a TS when it looks the worst lol


Actually, it looks a lot better now. After it ejected the firt LLC, you can see that disipate and the low level structure really improving under the blowup of convection.



14:42:00Z 16.167N 80.000W 843.1 mb
(~ 24.90 inHg) 1,546 meters
(~ 5,072 feet) 1002.2 mb
(~ 29.60 inHg) - From 285° at 1 knots
(From the WNW at ~ 1.2 mph) 24.9°C
(~ 76.8°F) 17.5°C
(~ 63.5°F) 4 knots
(~ 4.6 mph) 16 knots
(~ 18.4 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0.00 in/hr) 4.0 knots (~ 4.6 mph)
400.0%
Quoting 1636. Gearsts:

Finally a TS when it looks the worst lol


I would expect a statement from the NHC quickly.

Special Message from NHC Issued 2 Aug 2016 14:49 UTC
NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Earl with a Special Advisory to be issued before noon EDT.
Quoting 1642. WeatherkidJoe2323:



Recon just went to center and may have just found a west wind if I'm not mistaken
Yep. Well, wnw with a 1002 mb pressure. Just posted it.
Quoting 1636. Gearsts:

Finally a TS when it looks the worst lol
Looks aren't everything.
Though to be fair this may have gotten the call yesterday if the HHers hadn't experienced technical difficulties.
1651. Ed22
Quoting 1628. HurricaneFan:


Is that west winds?
yeahhh Earl is here, the great news is it has passed Jamaica.
Quoting 1642. WeatherkidJoe2323:



Recon just went to center and may have just found a west wind if I'm not mistaken
Yes, wnw with 1002 mb pressure reading.
We have Earl!
14:42:00Z 16.167N 80.000W 843.1 mb
1,546 meters
1002.2 mb
From 285 at 1 knots
(From the WNW at ~ 1.2 mph) 24.9 C
WE HAVE EARL!
From the NHC website:
Issued 2 Aug 2016 14:49 UTC
NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Earl with a Special Advisory to be issued before noon EDT.
Edit: someone beat me and posted this
1656. Ed22
Quoting 1641. HurricaneFan:

Special Message from NHC Issued 2 Aug 2016 14:49 UTC
NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Earl with a Special Advisory to be issued before noon EDT.
Great so now Belize, Yucatan Peninsula and Gulf coast need to be prepared. Us Jamaican have escaped this one...
Earl has a very tight (and small) closed LLC. Won't take much for this to ramp up as it already has a 1002mb pressure.
No more 97L we can say officially say Tropical Storm Earl
Special Message from NHC Issued 2 Aug 2016 14:49 UTC
NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Earl with a Special Advisory to be issued before noon EDT.
1660. Kyon5
Quoting 1637. CaribBoy:



But if it wants to develop nicely it has to move WNW towards the N Leewards after 55W and with a moderate speed. If not, then it should be another weak system racing west with no significant chance of development until (maybe) the NW Caribbean. We saw this in 2012 (Ernesto, TD7, Isaac), also in 2013 (Chantal). I don't like that kind of systems. Gonzalo however, took its time to reach the islands, had time to become a hurricane before reaching us, and so moved farther north than initially forecast.
It already has a vigorous mid-level circulation and should reach the surface eventually.



Link
1661. Tcwx2
" Special Message from NHC Issued 2 Aug 2016 14:49 UTC
NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Earl with a Special Advisory to be issued before noon EDT."
Finally Earl is here.
Looking on satellite present movement of confirmed LLC is WNW-NW

Anyway hello Earl
Within even the last 20 minutes I'm seeing more signs of organization, the next 24 hours will be interesting.
Quoting 1657. CybrTeddy:

Earl has a very tight (and small) closed LLC. Won't take much for this to ramp up as it already has a 1002mb pressure.


Generally for small, compact circulations the min pressure corresponds to a slightly higher max 1min wind speed as well.
1665. vis0

Quoting 1051. Grothar:

Here you go vis0. Eddys aren't as interesting as blobs, but they are important

(if img doesn'r show click2go to actual cmmnt]

blobs? not blobEds? (i think u won't use blobEds, instead stick to blobs, if you do use blobEds make sure its an uppercase "e" don't want to get the airBnB lobbyist angry at me.
Quoting 1657. CybrTeddy:

Earl has a very tight (and small) closed LLC. Won't take much for this to ramp up as it already has a 1002mb pressure.
That is what I fear. After leaving Jamaica as a TS Gustav intensified to a Cat 3 while approaching Cayman.
1667. Tcwx2
On the satellite I am beginning to notice some wrapping around. I wonder how strong the NHC will predict it to be in the cone.
Will we be getting 98L soon? Wave looks vigorous and robust
Gro, your blob has grown into a fine TS! You must be so proud! Heven knows he has been trying so hard! Welcome Earl! All of on the so proud of you (finally). Now how about you stay a TS and not do too much damage to Mexico? This one sure has been a fun nailbiter for sure. Looking forward to the rest of the season. Looks like it just Might be a doozy this year! Another big healthy looking blob just exited the African coast....more fun on the way!
Quoting 1666. stormwatcherCI:

That is what I fear. After leaving Jamaica as a TS Gustav intensified to a Cat 3 while approaching Cayman.


Its not that organized to be in a position to rapidly strengthen like that, and it will stay well south of the Caymans.
Tropical Storm Earl.
We have TS Earl, the first tropical cyclone to form in the Caribbean Sea since 2013.
With a 1002 mb pressure confirmed the Euro has done best job initializing out of all the models I believe, HWRF hasn't done too bad either.
1674. Patrap


Quoting 1662. wunderkidcayman:

Looking on satellite present movement of confirmed LLC is WNW-NW

Anyway hello Earl


97L/Earl has been moving due west or slightly north of west for days. No way it is now suddenly moving NW. It will continue to move west or north of west until landfall.
It seems like just yesterday Earl was just a wimpy little wave limping through an unfavorable MDR. They grow up so fast.
here is hoping the NWS server doesn't crash with everyone hitting the F5 key
Quoting 1660. Kyon5:

It already has a vigorous mid-level circulation and should reach the surface eventually.



Link
It will be interesting to see.
1679. GetReal
Phew, we have Earl. Pressure is a little lower than I would've figured.
5th named storm on August 2nd. I think the 5th named storm doesn't form on average until August 31st. If so a little ahead of schedule
National Hurricane Center will issue advisorys on Tropical Storm Earl before 12 pm edt.
EARL, AL, L, , , , , 05, 2016, DB, O, 2016072800, 9999999999, , 010, , , 5, WARNING, 5, AL052016
1684. NSB207
Appears Jamaica split 97L probably due to mountains there. Will it reform?
Quoting 1675. Bucsboltsfan:



97L/Earl has been moving due west or slightly north of west for days. No way it is now suddenly moving NW. It will continue to move west or north of west until landfall.


Hard reality for WKC. And I feel the same when a system is moving way south of me, and only brings a couple of quick showers.
Earl is certainly taking an Ernesto like path from 2012
Quoting 1677. hurricanehanna:

here is hoping the NWS server doesn't crash with everyone hitting the F5 key


I don't know what happened, but none of my shortcuts work (windows 10, dell laptop). I can't even use the degree symbol or letters with accents on them unless I copypasta.
Quoting 1686. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Earl is certainly taking an Ernesto like path from 2012
Yes, many people were saying that, yet were being mocked for saying things like that, but you know today has revealed the truth.
Quoting 1662. wunderkidcayman:

Looking on satellite present movement of confirmed LLC is WNW-NW

Anyway hello Earl



Cmon....It's not moving remotely close to NW. It's still heading W.
Quoting 1683. GTstormChaserCaleb:

EARL, AL, L, , , , , 05, 2016, DB, O, 2016072800, 9999999999, , 010, , , 5, WARNING, 5, AL052016


How fast is it still moving? 20 knots? 25 knots?
Quoting 1688. Climate175:

Yes, many people were saying, yet were being mocked for saying things like that, but you know today has revealed the truth.


Except Ernesto formed east of the Lesser Antilles... but okay.
So I am guessing a 50 mph storm with minimum pressure of 1002 mb ?

| 1013mb - 1002mb] ^1/2 x 16 = ~ 52 mph
Quoting 1668. wunderweatherman123:

Will we be getting 98L soon? Wave looks vigorous and robust


I was wondering the same. What do they look for before designating an invest? This blob has appeared very energetic (probably not the right word) since before it even left Africa.
Quoting 1691. VAbeachhurricanes:



Except Ernesto formed east of the Lesser Antilles... but okay.
And barely kept T.S strength in the caribbean because of fast trades...but okay...
Quoting 1690. ILwthrfan:



How fast is it still moving? 20 knots? 25 knots?


Looks to be a bit less than 20kt
Quoting 1690. ILwthrfan:



How fast is it still moving? 20 knots? 25 knots?
It didn't say, I would guess 20 mph.
Quoting 1694. washingtonian115:

And barely kept T.S strength in the caribbean because of fast trades...but okay...


But it did so... not really the same at all.
Quoting 1672. HurricaneFan:

We have TS Earl, the first tropical cyclone to form in the Caribbean Sea since 2013.


And first cyclone to form AND be named in the Caribbean since 2012.

1700. roleli
Officially Earl.
Quoting 1696. GTstormChaserCaleb:

It didn't say, I would guess 20 mph.


If thats true then it has slowed considerably (~30%) from it's previous pace.
Quoting 1689. cat6band:




Cmon....It's not moving remotely close to NW. It's still heading W.
Actually, current steering is wnw.
Looks as if Earl has 48 to 50 hrs before landfall, let's watch what it'll do!
1704. Patrap
Related to the earlier discussion about storm surges and their ability to come in like a tsunami instead of a gradual rise:

This image is from Bay St. Louis in Mississippi as Katrina rolled in.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 15:25Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5303
Mission Purpose: Investigate third suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 07 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )
A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 14:42:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°10'N 80°00'W (16.1667N 80.W)
B. Center Fix Location: 234 statute miles (376 km) to the SSE (157°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (U.K.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,472m (4,829ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 34kts (~ 39.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the WNW/NW (304°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 53° at 41kts (From the NE at ~ 47.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the WNW/NW (304°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1002mb (29.59 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,490m (4,888ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 41kts (~ 47.2mph) which was observed 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the WNW/NW (304°) from the flight level center at 14:32:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 135° at 23kts (From the SE at 26mph)
1707. Patrap
Peek a boo

Quoting 1633. CitikatzSouthFL:



Thanks for that update, but none of these started as an invest almost immediately after exiting the African coast in July and holding together all the way across the Atlantic and thru the Carrib graveyard. These types of storms are usually late August into Sept as your posts show. Just saying I am QUITE impressed with our "blob". He's come a long way, baby! Hope he makes it to at least a TD.


Our "blob" is already a TS, westerly winds were needed on the south side to close off the circulation to designate this as a TC, winds in the east-northeastern quadrant were already exceeding 35 knots, hence it would have skipped becoming a tropical depression...

?? You clearly said July & August...
"a system that exited Africa and SURVIVED ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC and through the Carrib "ts graveyard" in JULY/AUGUST!"

This is a mute point anyway even if you left off July or the fact that these systems weren't officially invests all the way near the African coast, keep in mind the WU historical tracking maps only show the paths of these TCs only when they actually become a TC. A few of these storms were actually invests @ or east of where Earl was initially designated as 97L, including at least Dean (2007), Isaac (2012), & Ernesto (2012) the latter of which, reminiscent to 97L/Earl, reached the eastern Caribbean near the end of July & first few days of August. Although impressive superficially, in historical context and on its own, the survival of 97L through the central Caribbean likely carries little-no significant bearing on the outcome of the season as you're implying...

NHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks for Isaac (2012) & Ernesto (2012) when they were initially designated in the far eastern Atlantic

The prelude Isaac (2012) as a potential invest just off the west coast of Africa



Ernesto (2012) precursor


Earl (2016)
Quoting 1701. ILwthrfan:



If thats true then it has slowed considerably (~30%) from it's previous pace.
I remember Levi, saying how once these storms approach Central America they slow down, due to the pile up of air and slower trades. I also think friction of the land will slow it down.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 15:25Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5303
Mission Purpose: Investigate third suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 07
A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 14:42:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°10'N 80°00'W (16.1667N 80.W)
B. Center Fix Location: 234 statute miles (376 km) to the SSE (157°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (U.K.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,472m (4,829ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 34kts (~ 39.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the WNW/NW (304°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 53° at 41kts (From the NE at ~ 47.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the WNW/NW (304°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1002mb (29.59 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,490m (4,888ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 41kts (~ 47.2mph) which was observed 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the WNW/NW (304°) from the flight level center at 14:32:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 135° at 23kts (From the SE at 26mph)
1711. Patrap
Quoting 1685. CaribBoy:



Hard reality for WKC. And I feel the same when a system is moving way south of me, and only brings a couple of quick showers.


He should come over to NC. Three of the top 5 locations for most hurricane approaches in the Atlantic. [Link]
Quoting 1691. VAbeachhurricanes:



Except Ernesto formed east of the Lesser Antilles... but okay.
Still had the same general situation going on once in the Caribbean, so ok.
Quoting 1697. HurricaneFan:




Earl: I Belize I can fly...
The first 6 invests this year all have become named storms because Bonnie was an invest twice. Considering the bust rate on invests, especially earlier in the year, I'd venture that's a record. You wouldn't think that considering how many people are STILL disappointed with the "low" amount of tropical cyclone activity here in the Atlantic.
1716. LemieT
Quoting 1685. CaribBoy:



Hard reality for WKC. And I feel the same when a system is moving way south of me, and only brings a couple of quick showers.


Or when it goes north of me (which is almost always, lol).
Quoting 1715. typhoonty:

The first 6 invests this year all have become named storms because Bonnie was an invest twice. Considering the bust rate on invests, especially earlier in the year, I'd venture that's a record. You wouldn't think that considering how many people are STILL disappointed with the "low" amount of tropical cyclone activity here in the Atlantic.

We actually had Invest 95L in the BoC and Invest 96L in the MDR fail to develop.
Quoting 1685. CaribBoy:



Hard reality for WKC. And I feel the same when a system is moving way south of me, and only brings a couple of quick showers.


woah woah woah hold don't compare me to you mate you on a whole different boat altogether


Quoting 1702. stormwatcherCI:

Actually, current steering is wnw.


thank you thank you
my point

the stronger the system the more N it would want to pull
1719. Ed22
Quoting 1711. Patrap:


Tropical storm Earl have slowed down considerably more, furthermore it strengthening now resent pressure ready is 1002.2 mbs.
NHC said "before noon". They'll post it at 11:56.
Just to mess with the blog.
Will be called before Noon est!
Quoting 1712. win1gamegiantsplease:



He should come over to NC. Three of the top 5 locations for most hurricane approaches in the Atlantic. [Link]
Cayman is #4 and being so small we can only have 1 place.
1723. Melagoo
I guess we now have a bouncing baby Earl ... well at noon ... according to NHC
1724. viman
let the F5 races begin!!!
Free lawn watering has commenced here in North Cocoa, FL. Been a while.
1726. Grothar
1727. LemieT
Quoting 1724. viman:

let the F5 races begin!!!


Oh yeah. I'm already at it.
The true disaster at hand is this. It's 1155 and I will miss the first advisory because of work -____- drat
Been raining all morning here in NW Florida, not a bad day to be at work!
Quoting 1712. win1gamegiantsplease:



He should come over to NC. Three of the top 5 locations for most hurricane approaches in the Atlantic. [Link]



According to the NHC, if you go by county, parish or borough, no one comes close to Monroe County (the Keys). LINK
1731. Patrap

Tropical Storm EARL Public Advisory
Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Wind Probs   Archive  
ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
1200 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS TROPICAL STORM EARL IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...EARL IS THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2016 HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 80.2W
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Governments of Mexico and Belize have issued a Tropical Storm
Warning and a Hurricane Watch for the east coast of the Yucatan
peninsula from Punta Allen, Mexico, southward to the Belize/
Guatemala border.

The Government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the entire north coast of Honduras from Cabo Gracias a Dios westward
to the Honduras/Guatemala border including the Bay Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Allen, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala border.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the Honduras/Guatemala border
including the Bay Islands.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Yucatan peninsula from Punta Allen, Mexico,
southward to the Belize/Guatemala border.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
The strong tropical wave that the National Hurricane Center has been
tracking across the Caribbean Sea has developed into Tropical Storm
Earl. At 1200 PM EDT (1600 UTC), the center of Earl was located near
latitude 16.3 North, longitude 80.2 West. Earl is moving toward the
west near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in
forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On this
track, the center of Earl will be moving very close to the north
coast of Honduras late tonight and Wednesday and approach Belize and
the Yucatan peninsula late Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some additional strengthening is forecast before Earl reaches the
Yucatan peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from an Air Force plane was
1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast of Honduras by late tonight, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous, and will reach Mexico and Belize within the
warning area by Wednesday night. Hurricane conditions could begin
in Mexico and Belize within the hurricane watch area Wednesday
night.

RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches
of rainfall over Jamaica. Total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches
are expected over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the
Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, with possible isolated maximum amounts
of 16 inches in Mexico and Belize. These rains could result in
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2
to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula to the north of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and damaging waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

NNNN


Quick Links and Additional Resources

1732. LemieT
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtm l/021557.shtml
000
AXNT20 KNHC 021036
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...

A gale warning has been issued for the central Caribbean from
15N-18N between 74W-78W, and from 16N-18N between 77W-79W.
Winds are 25 to 35 kt, and seas 10 TO 15 ft. A closed cyclonic
circulation at the surface is presently lacking, thus a tropical
storm warning has not been issued at this time. The tropical
wave is moving west across the Caribbean basin at 18 kt. The
tropical wave extends from 22N77W to 10N77W. Numerous strong
convection is mostly S of Jamaica from 14N-19N between 75W-79W.
Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere over the NW Caribbean.
The potential exists for a tropical storm to form later today.
Please see the Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details.

E ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas forecast...that is
listed under the following links...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLE TIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the
following area: CANARIAS.

TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends from 16N22W
to 06N23W moving west 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models
and is embedded within a low-amplitude surge of moisture as seen
on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water Imagery. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is west of the wave axis from 07N-12N
between 26W-31W.

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends from
18N40W to 07N42W moving west at 10 to 15 kt over the past 24
hours. The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as depicted in
the global models and is embedded within a surge of moisture as
seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water Imagery. Isolated
moderate convection is from 07N-16N between 35W-49W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 20N16W to 11N23W to 10N30W to 13N42W to 09N52W
where the ITCZ begins and continues to the coast of South
America at 08N60W. Besides the convection mentioned in the
tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection is from 07N-
10N between 50W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge axis is over the northern Gulf of Mexico along
30N from N florida to E Texas. 10-15 kt SE winds are noted over
the Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is over S Florida and
the Straits of Florida from 23N-27N E of 83W. Elsewhere,
scattered moderate convection is over the Bay of Campeche S of
20N W of 93W. In the upper levels...an upper level high is
centered over the N Gulf near 30N90W. A small upper level low is
centered N of the Bahamas near 29N78W enhancing the nocturnal
convection over S Florida. Expect over the next 24 hours for an
increase of convection over the SE Gulf, Cuba, and the Yucatan
Peninsula due to the approaching tropical Wave.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The prime focus tonight is the strong tropical wave and gale
moving through the central Caribbean. See above. Elsewhere, 10-
25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with 10 kt winds
over the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is over N Colombia and the SW Caribbean from 06N-11N
between 74W-77W. In the upper levels, an upper level high is
centered S of Jamaica near 17N76W. Expect the tropical wave/
gale to be the dominate weather producer over the Caribbean Sea
for the next 48 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Currently, mostly fair weather is over Hispaniola. Expect little
change over the next 24 hours as the tropical wave moves west.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered moderate convection is north of the Bahamas from 27N-
30N between 75W-78W mostly due the small upper level low
centered near 29N78W. A 1022 mb high is centered over the
western Atlantic near 30N61W. Two tropical waves are over the
tropical Atlantic. See above. Also of note in the upper levels,
a large upper level low is centered over the central Atlantic
near 25N51W. Expect the tropical waves to move west with
convection for the next several days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
000
WTNT35 KNHC 021557
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
1200 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS TROPICAL STORM EARL IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...EARL IS THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2016 HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 80.2W
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Governments of Mexico and Belize have issued a Tropical Storm
Warning and a Hurricane Watch for the east coast of the Yucatan
peninsula from Punta Allen, Mexico, southward to the Belize/
Guatemala border.

The Government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the entire north coast of Honduras from Cabo Gracias a Dios westward
to the Honduras/Guatemala border including the Bay Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Allen, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala border.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the Honduras/Guatemala border
including the Bay Islands.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Yucatan peninsula from Punta Allen, Mexico,
southward to the Belize/Guatemala border.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
The strong tropical wave that the National Hurricane Center has been
tracking across the Caribbean Sea has developed into Tropical Storm
Earl. At 1200 PM EDT (1600 UTC), the center of Earl was located near
latitude 16.3 North, longitude 80.2 West. Earl is moving toward the
west near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in
forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On this
track, the center of Earl will be moving very close to the north
coast of Honduras late tonight and Wednesday and approach Belize and
the Yucatan peninsula late Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some additional strengthening is forecast before Earl reaches the
Yucatan peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from an Air Force plane was
1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast of Honduras by late tonight, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous, and will reach Mexico and Belize within the
warning area by Wednesday night. Hurricane conditions could begin
in Mexico and Belize within the hurricane watch area Wednesday
night.

RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches
of rainfall over Jamaica. Total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches
are expected over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the
Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, with possible isolated maximum amounts
of 16 inches in Mexico and Belize. These rains could result in
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2
to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula to the north of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and damaging waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila
Quoting 1726. Grothar:




Nice to see our zillion dollar radar being put to good use Gro :)
1737. LemieT
000
WTNT35 KNHC 021557
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
1200 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS TROPICAL STORM EARL IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...EARL IS THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2016 HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 80.2W
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Governments of Mexico and Belize have issued a Tropical Storm
Warning and a Hurricane Watch for the east coast of the Yucatan
peninsula from Punta Allen, Mexico, southward to the Belize/
Guatemala border.

The Government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the entire north coast of Honduras from Cabo Gracias a Dios westward
to the Honduras/Guatemala border including the Bay Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Allen, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala border.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the Honduras/Guatemala border
including the Bay Islands.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Yucatan peninsula from Punta Allen, Mexico,
southward to the Belize/Guatemala border.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
The strong tropical wave that the National Hurricane Center has been
tracking across the Caribbean Sea has developed into Tropical Storm
Earl. At 1200 PM EDT (1600 UTC), the center of Earl was located near
latitude 16.3 North, longitude 80.2 West. Earl is moving toward the
west near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in
forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On this
track, the center of Earl will be moving very close to the north
coast of Honduras late tonight and Wednesday and approach Belize and
the Yucatan peninsula late Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some additional strengthening is forecast before Earl reaches the
Yucatan peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from an Air Force plane was
1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast of Honduras by late tonight, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous, and will reach Mexico and Belize within the
warning area by Wednesday night. Hurricane conditions could begin
in Mexico and Belize within the hurricane watch area Wednesday
night.

RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches
of rainfall over Jamaica. Total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches
are expected over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the
Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, with possible isolated maximum amounts
of 16 inches in Mexico and Belize. These rains could result in
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2
to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula to the north of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and damaging waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila
it's gonna go about 200 miles south of the Cayman islands, not much effects except a few showers
Quoting 1688. Climate175:

Yes, many people were saying that, yet were being mocked for saying things like that, but you know today has revealed the truth.
That's what I say all the time. When u r right, ur right.... the weather will bring it out, day by day, system by system.
so hows our thunderstorm today
I see its now thunderstorm earl 05L
I smell that "New Blog Coming Soon" smell again.
The Spanish Forecast Discussion for Earl is from Erika last year. Strange.
ALERT ATCF MIL 97X XXX 160802060000
2016080206
16.4 282.4
16.2 276.1
100
16.3 282.5
021000
1608021000
1
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED //
WTNT21 KNGU 021000
REF/A/FLEWEACEN NORFOLK VA/011000Z AUG 16//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.4N 77.6W TO 16.2N 83.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 00 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 TO 40 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 020600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.3N 77.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 40
KTS. AVAILABLE SURFACE WIND DATA SUGGEST THAT THE DISTURBANCE
LACKS A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS,
HOWEVER, ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM
STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE TODAY OR
TONIGHT.
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 031000Z.
//
9716072718 126N 289W 15
9716072800 127N 301W 15
9716072806 128N 315W 15
9716072812 129N 330W 15
9716072818 132N 351W 20
9716072900 134N 370W 20
9716072906 136N 389W 25
9716072912 138N 410W 25
9716072918 139N 434W 25
9716073000 140N 460W 25
9716073006 143N 486W 25
9716073012 146N 515W 25
9716073018 148N 546W 30
9716073100 149N 573W 30
9716073106 150N 600W 25
9716073112 152N 626W 25
9716073118 154N 652W 30
9716080100 156N 676W 35
9716080106 158N 696W 40
9716080112 160N 717W 40
9716080118 163N 734W 40
9716080200 165N 753W 40
9716080206 163N 775W 40

Quoting 1730. mikatnight:




According to the NHC, if you go by county, parish or borough, no one comes close to Monroe County (the Keys). LINK


I find it a minor miracle that Tallahassee is located where it is. Tallahassee is located in probably the least Hurricane prone area in the state. It's an argument I use when people want the capitol moved to Orlando.
Now we wait on the yellow crayon near Africa. That wave looks good
The center is in the far NW section of the main convection. Same area that spit out the llc earlier.
Quoting 1745. NCHurricaneTracker69:

The Spanish Forecast Discussion for Earl is from Erika last year. Strange.


Man, they're STILL not giving up on Erika. They must have read this blog last year.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
1200 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS TROPICAL STORM EARL IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...EARL IS THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2016 HURRICANE SEASON...

O WELL just in on lunch work day today
Quoting 1747. ElConando:



I find it a minor miracle that Tallahassee is located where it is. Tallahassee is located in probably the least Hurricane prone area in the state. It's an argument I use when people want the capitol moved to Orlando.


What's interesting is the Big Bend of Florida frequently gets Tropical Depressions and weaker tropical systems, but it's hard to get a hurricane to landfall there.
1755. B183
Rats! It looks like Earl is being shoved south by our persistent dry high. We could actually use a serious soaking in South Texas. The rest of Texas had runoff last spring to get lakes full. We were wet, but not nearly wet enough to get us out of 40% lake capacity and water rationing.
Hello, Earl!
Quoting 1730. mikatnight:




According to the NHC, if you go by county, parish or borough, no one comes close to Monroe County (the Keys). LINK


I imagine to the Keys. That's for landfalling systems as well isn't it? The other measure was by close passage. It says the max radius on the site somewhere.

The argument also for Hatteras vs Cayman (or even the Keys for that matter) is intensity. Strongest to hit both Cayman and the Keys is a Cat-5. The strongest to hit Hatteras (that we know of) was a high-end 3.
So the DNA results are in, and it's a duck.
Well, Mr. Avila wrote this one ...
Quoting 1720. mikatnight:

NHC said "before noon". They'll post it at 11:56.
Just to mess with the blog.
Actually it was 11:57 .... lol ...
Quoting 1747. ElConando:



I find it a minor miracle that Tallahassee is located where it is. Tallahassee is located in probably the least Hurricane prone area in the state. It's an argument I use when people want the capitol moved to Orlando.


The Jacksonville area too, essentially the only way they get a direct strike is from a CV system (a path like David, Hugo, Fran), maybe a homegrown.
1761. hydrus
1763. viman
Not sure if this was on before, if so sorry for the repeat.
R.I.P.
https://weather.com/news/news/dave-schwartz-weath er-channel-passes-away
When you look at major hurricanes all of South Florida is pretty equal.
Quoting 1754. Sfloridacat5:



What's interesting is the Big Bend of Florida frequently gets Tropical Depressions and weaker tropical systems, but it's hard to get a hurricane to landfall there.


SSSSHHHHHHHH !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You talkin' way too loud !!!!
HH finding surface winds of 54.1 mph. Might be a bit stronger than 45 mph sustained winds.
Quoting 1747. ElConando:



I find it a minor miracle that Tallahassee is located where it is. Tallahassee is located in probably the least Hurricane prone area in the state. It's an argument I use when people want the capitol moved to Orlando.


Tallahassee, FL is way overdue for a major hurricane landfall. Kate (1985) was the last hurricane to slam the area from the SW.

Its been a long time since the big bend area was raked by major Hurricane Easy in 1950. Elena stalled 55 miles offshore in 1985, but never made landfall in Florida.
1769. beell
TROPICAL STORM EARL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
1200 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016

Data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that the strong wave we have been tracking for days has developed a closed circulation center with an estimated pressure of 1001 mb. On this basis, advisories on Tropical Storm Earl have been initiated. This is the fifth tropical storm of the 2016 hurricane season.

The overall convective pattern was a little less organized this morning, but recent images indicate that an area of deep convection is forming near or over the center. The upper-level outflow is not well established yet in all quadrants due to some shear. Most of the global models show that the upper-level environment should become more favorable with less shear. The NHC forecast calls for some intensification, and Earl is expected to be near hurricane strength by the time the center approaches the Yucatan peninsula.

Earl has been moving westward rapidly around 19 kt embedded within very strong easterly flow around the periphery of the Atlantic subtropical high. The ridge extends westward across the southern United States, and this pattern should maintain the cyclone on a general westward track across Belize and Yucatan during the next couple of days. After that time, a weakened Earl should move over the southern Bay of Campeche and southern Mexico. The cyclone should slow down during the next 12 to 24 hours since the steering currents are expected to be weaker. Most of the dynamical guidance agree on this scenario, and the NHC forecast very closely follows the multi-model consensus.

$$
Forecaster Avila

Looks like some 45-50 kt surface winds...maybe an upgrade at 2PM
Good to see recon getting a lot of good data on Earl - looks to be a bit stronger than initially thought. With it slowing down over the course of today and the upper level environment expected to become extremely favourable, I would say Earl will strengthen into a hurricane - possibly a strong category 2 or even category 3 if it undergoes RI.
A great shot of a line of strong to severe thunderstorms in the Tampa Bay area Sunday evening, this particular shot was from the coast near the Sarasota/Bradenton area. Here at my place in Pinellas we had intense rain and an incredible lightning show for at least 2 hours and also a nice looking shelf cloud, though not as great as this where the line of thunderstorms was at it's peak.





Earl is tilted to the south, mid-level wind-shift about 15 miles south of lowest pressure.
Quoting 1771. Envoirment:

Good to see recon getting a lot of good data on Earl - looks to be a bit stronger than initially thought. With it slowing down over t course of today and the upper level environment expected to become extremely favourable, I would say Earl will strengthen into a hurricane - possibly a strong category 2 or even category 3 if it undergoes RI.


Earl only has two days to strengthen before making landfall in the Yucatan. So I don't see Earl becoming a major hurricane.
Quoting 1762. washingtonian115:

Uhhhh wah? Humans don't control the weather but okay....
Actually, I was thinking he meant "fewer people" and left out a word.... but that's just my take.
1776. LemieT
Anyone with any info on the CATL wave? I mean it has looked pretty good for the last few days now, but not even an honorable mention... No model support?
1777. Walshy

000
WTNT35 KNHC 021557
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
1200 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS TROPICAL STORM EARL IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...EARL IS THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2016 HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 80.2W
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Governments of Mexico and Belize have issued a Tropical Storm
Warning and a Hurricane Watch for the east coast of the Yucatan
peninsula from Punta Allen, Mexico, southward to the Belize/
Guatemala border.

The Government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the entire north coast of Honduras from Cabo Gracias a Dios westward
to the Honduras/Guatemala border including the Bay Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Allen, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala border.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the Honduras/Guatemala border
including the Bay Islands.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Yucatan peninsula from Punta Allen, Mexico,
southward to the Belize/Guatemala border.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
The strong tropical wave that the National Hurricane Center has been
tracking across the Caribbean Sea has developed into Tropical Storm
Earl. At 1200 PM EDT (1600 UTC), the center of Earl was located near
latitude 16.3 North, longitude 80.2 West. Earl is moving toward the
west near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in
forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On this
track, the center of Earl will be moving very close to the north
coast of Honduras late tonight and Wednesday and approach Belize and
the Yucatan peninsula late Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some additional strengthening is forecast before Earl reaches the
Yucatan peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from an Air Force plane was
1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast of Honduras by late tonight, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous, and will reach Mexico and Belize within the
warning area by Wednesday night. Hurricane conditions could begin
in Mexico and Belize within the hurricane watch area Wednesday
night.

RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches
of rainfall over Jamaica. Total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches
are expected over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the
Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, with possible isolated maximum amounts
of 16 inches in Mexico and Belize. These rains could result in
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2
to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula to the north of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and damaging waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila
Quoting 1774. Sfloridacat5:



Earl only has two days to strengthen before making landfall in the Yucatan. So I don't see Earl becoming a major hurricane.
I've seen storms RI from 1 - 4 in 36 hours, so it's certainly POSsible.... Likely? not so much.
Quoting 1725. ecflweatherfan:

Free lawn watering has commenced here in North Cocoa, FL. Been a while.

Here too in Melbourne, nice shower. The seabreeze is blowing up just east of me for a change..
I haven't posted much since 08 or so but been around since 04 under castnblast - my old email is no longer my email so I have a new profile. I live in Corpus Christi. Anyway - this system has been interesting and I've seen less organized systems named (particularly Colin) - anyway that system West Southwest of the Cape Verdes should be pegged soon as an invest I would imagine.
Earl looks like it's around 50-60 mph already. I certainly wouldn't rule out a category 1 hurricane with Earl.
Quoting 1779. Skyepony:


Here too in Melbourne, nice shower. The seabreeze is blowing up just east of me for a change..


Free outdoor clothes drying here in Austin right now :)
Quoting 1774. Sfloridacat5:



Earl only has two days to strengthen before making landfall in the Yucatan. So I don't see Earl becoming a major hurricane.


Depends on whether the storm undergoes RI or not. The environment is expected to be conducive for such and we've seen many storms go from Tropical storm to major hurricanes in 24 hours. It'll be particularly dangerous if it decided to do so closer to the coast as it starts making landfall - let's hope it doesn't happen.
Quoting 1764. Sfloridacat5:

When you look at major hurricanes all of South Florida is pretty equal.



And at frequency S FL and the OBX are pretty equal

Quoting 1759. BahaHurican:

Well, Mr. Avila wrote this oActually it was 11:57 .... lol ...

Dr. Avila actually :)
and (as you may know but others may not) Dr. Avila holds undergrad degree from University of Havana, interestingly enough, and served as a forecaster in Cuba before coming to the U.S. "Dr. Avila began his professional career in 1973 as a meteorologist with the Cuban Weather Service..." per his NWS bio linked here.
It split ? what happens now?
http://meteo.cw/sat_loop.php?Lang=Eng&St=TNCC&Sws =R11
Earl is moving west - not wnw and especially nw. Heading for Belize or just a bit north in the Yucatan.
Quoting 1768. Stormwatch247:


Tallahassee, FL is way overdue for a major hurricane landfall. Kate (1985) was the last hurricane to slam the area from the SW.

Its been a long time since the big bend area was raked by major Hurricane Easy in 1950. Elena stalled 55 miles offshore in 1985, but never made landfall in Florida.


Tallahassee is too far inland to have anything reach it with major hurricane status still.

Not bad.
Quoting 1784. Envoirment:



Depends on whether the storm undergoes RI or not. The environment is expected to be conducive for such and we've seen many storms go from Tropical storm to major hurricanes in 24 hours. It'll be particularly dangerous if it decided to do so closer to the coast as it starts making landfall - let's hope it doesn't happen.


Yes, the Western Caribbean is the spot for RI, but I think Earl is moving too quickly and the conditions are still not perfect for RI.
I think Earl will most likely be a CAT1 when it landfalls into the Yucatan.
Quoting 1747. ElConando:



I find it a minor miracle that Tallahassee is located where it is. Tallahassee is located in probably the least Hurricane prone area in the state. It's an argument I use when people want the capitol moved to Orlando.


Actually, Tallahassee isn't the least prone, Jacksonville definitely is, if you look at the county map, Tallahassee gets impacted by systems moving SW to NE which corresponds to Gulf and Franklin counties which are am impacted on the moderate scale frequency. The small town of Perry is the only population center in Taylor county from what I'm aware, but that's not the direction Tallahassee gets a hurricane from.

Tallahassee is certainly not storm surge prone, having tall rolling hills. But, just a few miles south, the elevation drops to levels like that in the Tampa Bay area(5-20 ft above sea level) so the sudden increase in terrain makes it prone to strong winds. This is also because the trees in this area are very tall due to the higher terrain and more nutrient rich soil.

It's also prone to flash flooding from heavy rain due to the hilly terrain compared to most other parts of Florida. especially the south side of town because of the rapid elevation decline.

not a drop got a wild bunny eating the leftover garden stuff. mellon leaves are her favorite. elmer fudd is watching.
that graph is not right e cen florida pt canaveral has never recorded a landfalling major in recorded history. there has been alot of 1 & 2 catagory storms make landfall there bad enough but never a major. we researched that before there was internet. also is one of the reasons ksc is located here.
Quoting 1789. 69Viking:



Tallahassee is too far inland to have anything reach it with major hurricane status still.


Hurricane Charley was a category 3 all the way into Polk County along with severe wind damage to homes and wind gusts well over 100 mph still, it came in from a slanted direction, Polk County is substantially farther away from Punta Gorda than Tallahassee is from the coast.

A category 4 or 5 moving at a quick pace could reasonably hit Tallahassee as a category 3.
GFS shows a repeat next week.
Quoting 1768. Stormwatch247:



Tallahassee, FL is way overdue for a major hurricane landfall. Kate (1985) was the last hurricane to slam the area from the SW.

Its been a long time since the big bend area was raked by major Hurricane Easy in 1950. Elena stalled 55 miles offshore in 1985, but never made landfall in Florida.


Of course, the "overdue" areas have the same chance of getting hit every year, whether they're overdue or not.
Quoting 1791. Sfloridacat5:



Yes, the Western Caribbean is the spot for RI, but I think Earl is moving too quickly and the conditions are still not perfect for RI.
I think Earl will most likely be a CAT1 when it landfalls into the Yucatan.



I agree to a certain extent, but it'll be slowing down over the course of today and models are showing a very favourable upper level environment forming over Earl by tomorrow. So I don't think you can rule out RI or at least it strengthening more than predicted.
Quoting 1780. Fishing41:

I haven't posted much since 08 or so but been around since 04 under castnblast - my old email is no longer my email so I have a new profile. I live in Corpus Christi. Anyway - this system has been interesting and I've seen less organized systems named (particularly Colin) - anyway that system West Southwest of the Cape Verdes should be pegged soon as an invest I would imagine.

NHC probably sidetracked watching Earl. Looks like an Invest to me. Guessing Earl's little sister is going to try to copy her brother!
Looks like the pattern general theme for right now will be waves entering the Caribbean, and potentially forming and taking a track towards the Yucatan. Look at the position of that High for next week.
Quoting 1796. Climate175:

GFS shows a repeat next week.
A trough will be bringing us cooler temps by next week thanks to Nida that is forecast to recurve.Of course expect that solution to change.
Nice steady rain in Port St. Lucie. Lots of thunder. Good day to be home and cozy and enjoying the blog.
Why nobody is commenting anymore?
1804. sigh
Quoting 1789. 69Viking:

Tallahassee is too far inland to have anything reach it with major hurricane status still.

What?? Tallahassee is less than 30 miles from the Gulf of Mexico. It would be easy for a hurricane to still have major hurricane status when it reached Tallahassee.

Granted, most hurricanes don't approach Tally from due south, but it's hardly impossible.
1805. GatorWX
Looks to me the coc may have reformed under convection se of previous vorticity. Also looks, imo, like it should commence on a wsw track shortly, likely bring it into Honduras or southern Belize. After, i feel reformation likely won't reaccur. We shall see.

1806. barbamz

click to enlarge
Quoting 1750. BobinTampa:



Man, they're STILL not giving up on Erika. They must have read this blog last year.


It's still out there, somewhere, just hanging out and refusing to die.
12Z HWRF is running and it initialised well.

Quoting 1718. wunderkidcayman:



woah woah woah hold don't compare me to you mate you on a whole different boat altogether



Are you serious lol?
position of where the tropical wave is in the eastern atlantic is reminiscent of Dean of 2007. This wave although has little model support should be watched as conditions favour slow development. Even the flare up of what was 96L could be interesting as it has created a moisture shield for what could become 98L
Quoting 1785. win1gamegiantsplease:



And at frequency S FL and the OBX are pretty equal




OBX doesn't see major hurricanes as frequently as S. Florida.
Quoting 1803. SELAliveforthetropic:

Why nobody is commenting anymore?
A.Because people have seen this same type of track play out over the last few years and B.It is not threatening the U.S.I know this post is not PC and I may get some flak but its the truth.
Quoting 1803. SELAliveforthetropic:

Why nobody is commenting anymore?
The tropical wave was finally named Earl!
Quoting 1779. Skyepony:


Here too in Melbourne, nice shower. The seabreeze is blowing up just east of me for a change..


Ridge axis right over Brevard, northern and central parts, storms are drifting very slowly NE, while building inland. Southern areas storms are lifting N/NW. Love when the sea breeze actually does its thing.

A shallow puddle on the concrete walkway reflects coconut palms this morning, creating a painted effect.
1816. BayFog
Earl is running headlong into some southerly shear. It looks more ragged than it did when it appeared more symmetrical as a strong wave. Hurricane status may be hard to come by before landfall breaks it up. The only thing it has going for it are the deep, warm SSTs.
Quoting 1712. win1gamegiantsplease:



He should come over to NC. Three of the top 5 locations for most hurricane approaches in the Atlantic. [Link]


It's interesting that Nova Scotia is Number 10.
Quoting 1796. Climate175:

GFS shows a repeat next week.


Please no, no, no!
Quoting 1794. islander101010:

that graph is not right e cen florida pt canaveral has never recorded a landfalling major in recorded history. there has been alot of 1 & 2 catagory storms make landfall there bad enough but never a major. we researched that before there was internet. also is one of the reasons ksc is located here.

Majors have landfalled in Florida before and after the internet was made. Here's the list of them all:
Great Middle Florida 3 August 23 1851 100 Panama City
Unnamed 3 August 17 1871 100 Jupiter Island
Unnamed 3 October 7 1873 100 Captiva Island
Unnamed 3 October 3 1877 100 Panama City
Unnamed 3 September 10 1882 100 Navarre
Unnamed 3 August 16 1888 110 Miami Beach
Unnamed 3 October 9 1894 105 Panama City
Unnamed 3 September 10 1896 110 Cedar Key
Unnamed 3 October 18 1906 105 Marathon (1st landfall)/
Near Flamingo (2nd landfall)
Unnamed 3 October 11 1909 100 Marathon
Unnamed 3 September 29 1917 100 Okaloosa County
(Ft. Walton Beach)
Unnamed 4 September 10 1919 130 Dry Tortugas
Great Miami 4 September 18–20 1926 125 Palmetto Bay (1st landfall)/
Orange Beach, AL (2nd landfall)*
Okeechobee 4 September 17 1928 125 Palm Beach
Unnamed 3 September 4 1933 110 Jupiter
Labor Day 5 September 3 1935 160 Craig Key
Unnamed 3 October 18 1944 105 Dry Tortugas
Unnamed 4 September 15 1945 115 North Key Largo (1st landfall)/
Florida City (2nd landfall)
Unnamed 4 September 17 1947 115 Port Everglades
(Ft. Lauderdale)
Unnamed 4 September 21–22 1948 115 Saddlebunch Keys (1st landfall)/
Near Chokoloskee (2nd landfall)
Unnamed 4 August 26 1949 115 Lantana/
Lake Worth
Easy 3 September 5 1950 105 Near Cedar Key
King 4 October 18 1950 115 Downtown Miami
Donna 4 September 10 1960 115 Conch Key (1st landfall)/
Near Naples (2nd landfall)
Betsy 3 September 8 1965 110 Tavernier
Eloise 3 September 23 1975 110 Bay County
Elena 3 September 2 1985 100 Gulfport, MS*
Andrew 5 August 24 1992 145 Elliott Key (1st landfall)/
Near Homestead (2nd landfall)
Opal 3 October 4 1995 100 Pensacola Beach
Charley 4 August 13 2004 130 Cayo Costa (1st landfall)/
Near Punta Gorda (2nd landfall)
Ivan 3 September 16 2004 105 Near Gulf Shores, AL*
Frances 2 September 4 2004 105 West Palm Beach, Florida
Jeanne 3 September 26 2004 105 Hutchinson Island
Dennis 3 July 10 2005 105 Santa Rosa Island
Wilma 3 October 24 2005 105 Cape Romano
Quoting 1803. SELAliveforthetropic:

Why nobody is commenting anymore?


1. Earl is named (finally). 2. Models not prjecting major hurricane. and 3. Models not indicating US hit. But there is still lots season left.
Quoting 1795. Jedkins01:


Hurricane Charley was a category 3 all the way into Polk County along with severe wind damage to homes and wind gusts well over 100 mph still, it came in from a slanted direction, Polk County is substantially farther away from Punta Gorda than Tallahassee is from the coast.

A category 4 or 5 moving at a quick pace could reasonably hit Tallahassee as a category 3.


Storms weaken quicker in NW Florida due to the higher terrain, just don't see it happening IMO.
HWRF has it making landfall as a category 1 hurricane:



Quoting 1750. BobinTampa:



Man, they're STILL not giving up on Erika. They must have read this blog last year.


Interesting actually the previous products pre-pared in the likelihood of T.D. 5 or Tropical storm Earl from last evening were all pertaining to IDA- but that's more understandable since it was the last storm of the 2015 season...

Blessings!
Quoting 1818. CaribBoy:



Please no, no, no!
The first two weeks of August look to display the pattern of storms going through the Central Lesser Antilles, and into the Caribbean doing something, when things get to the middle and late part of the month maybe things will change and let storms travel and take a more northern track towards the Lesser Antilles and into the Bahamas.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1827. GatorWX
Quoting 1805. GatorWX:

Looks to me the coc may have reformed under convection se of previous vorticity. Also looks, imo, like it should commence on a wsw track shortly, likely bring it into Honduras or southern Belize. After, i feel reformation likely won't reaccur. We shall see.




Also, wouldn't be surprised to see some steady strengthening up until land interaction becomes an issue. Running out of time before work, but anticyclone has become better defined and the center should be closer to it, per last time I checked cimss shear maps. Certainly looks the case on sat as it's become more symmetrical. Time will tell. Keep in mind this is a small circulation and although somewhat sheared now, it's in a high moisture environment and shear shoukd gradually decrease. I have mentioned in the past two days, reitterating what Levi states, air piles and slows in this region, aiding in lift that helps create thunderstorms. Could be an interesting night. I'll be back late this evening.
From the 12pm advisory about Tropical Storm Earl.

Earl is moving toward the
west near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in
forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On this
track, the center of Earl will be moving very close to the north
coast of Honduras late tonight and Wednesday and approach Belize and
the Yucatan peninsula late Wednesday.

Late Wednesday = tomorrow - not a lot of time to prepare if you're in the Belize area.
That is why I don't expect Earl to become anything stronger than a CAT1 at the most.
1829. GatorWX
Last comment: I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a strong ts or minimal out of this. Wait. Watch. See. Later
1830. Patrap
91F here with heat index of 107.5 currently.

1831. Patrap
AF303 Mission #02 into INVEST
Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: In Storm

As of 17:24 UTC Aug 02, 2016:
Aircraft Position: 16.27°N 80.70°W
Bearing: 315° at 166 kt
Altitude: 2465 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 11 kt at 78°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 999.0 mb





YES, FINALLY BETTER NHC JUDGEMENT HAS PREVAILED… Tracking this system has been quite an ordeal to say the least, but also an interesting learning episode as well. Quite amusing and interesting was the expression used in the Outlook by the NHC forecasters as they tried to subtly say what was overwhelmingly obvious...”AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS TROPICAL STORM EARL IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA......EARL IS THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2016 HURRICANE SEASON”...
This was actually already a far gone conclusion in the minds of most sensible tropical weather enthusiasts. I quite like the use of the word ‘FINDS’ though -a cute use of the word BUT AGAIN- REALLY? Lol. To those of us who had just mere lay intuition and even elementary meteorological inclinations knew that Tropical Storm EARL WAS ALREADY LONG IN EXISTENCE FROM OVER 24HRS ago.

*AS A SORT OF ADDENDUM / CORRECTION to an earlier post- the woman who drowned was not as a direct result of Flash floods, but her body was recovered at a popular bathing spot where she had been swept away by high waves while on the beach with friends. She eventually succumbed to extra strong and dangerous currents in addition to battering waves which were amplified by a flash flood occurrence at the bay’s main steams due the passage of then 97L (EARL).
LET US ALL BE RESOLVED TO BE AS PREPARED AND PROTECTIVE OF LIFE, LIMB AND PROPERTY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THIS SADLY -ALREADY DEADLY 2016 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. MAY THE SOULS OF ALL THE DECEASED ESPECIALLY THOSE LOST IN OUR ‘SISTER CARIBBEAN COUNTRY’ THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DUE TO EARL’S PASSAGE -REST IN PEACE.
… ALSO IT LOOKS LIKE 98L AND 99L ARE ALREADY IN THE MAKING. STAY VIGILANT…
KEEP PRUDENT/ KEEP SAFE EVERYONE & MAY GOD BLESS US ALL!
YES, FINALLY BETTER NHC JUDGEMENT HAS PREVAILED… Tracking this system has been quite an ordeal to say the least, but also an interesting learning episode as well. Quite amusing and interesting was the expression used in the Outlook by the NHC forecasters as they tried to subtly say what was overwhelmingly obvious...”AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS TROPICAL STORM EARL IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA......EARL IS THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2016 HURRICANE SEASON”...
This was actually already a far gone conclusion in the minds of most sensible tropical weather enthusiasts. I quite like the use of the word ‘FINDS’ though -a cute use of the word BUT AGAIN- REALLY? Lol. To those of us who had just mere lay intuition and even elementary meteorological inclinations knew that Tropical Storm EARL WAS ALREADY LONG IN EXISTENCE FROM OVER 24HRS ago.
*AS A SORT OF ADDENDUM / CORRECTION to an earlier post- the woman who drowned was not as a direct result of Flash floods, but her body was recovered at a popular bathing spot where she had been swept away by high waves while on the beach with friends. She eventually succumbed to extra strong and dangerous currents in addition to battering waves which were amplified by a flash flood occurrence at the bay’s main steams due the passage of then 97L (EARL).
LET US ALL BE RESOLVED TO BE AS PREPARED AND PROTECTIVE OF LIFE, LIMB AND PROPERTY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THIS SADLY -ALREADY DEADLY 2016 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. MAY THE SOULS OF ALL THE DECEASED ESPECIALLY THOSE LOST IN OUR ‘SISTER CARIBBEAN COUNTRY’ THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DUE TO EARL’S PASSAGE -REST IN PEACE.
… ALSO IT LOOKS LIKE 98L AND 99L ARE ALREADY IN THE MAKING. STAY VIGILANT…
KEEP PRUDENT/ KEEP SAFE EVERYONE & MAY GOD BLESS US ALL!
Quoting 1800. Climate175:

Looks like the pattern general theme for right now will be waves entering the Caribbean, and potentially forming and taking a track towards the Yucatan. Look at the position of that High for next week.
i was saying that last week that the high off the south east coast would build in and probably will stay there for many weeks if not a month or 2.... should keep us safe here in florida and family in georgia
1835. guygee
Quoting 1794. islander101010:

that graph is not right e cen florida pt canaveral has never recorded a landfalling major in recorded history. there has been alot of 1 & 2 catagory storms make landfall there bad enough but never a major. we researched that before there was internet. also is one of the reasons ksc is located here.
That is my understanding as well, islander, there has never been a major hurricane landfall on what is now the Brevard County coastline in recorded history. I don't know if there have been geological studies of sedimentology showing paleo-hurricanes, but in recorded history, none.
Quoting 1824. Climate175:

The first two weeks of August look to display the pattern of storms going through the Central Lesser Antilles, and into the Caribbean doing something, when things get to the middle and late part of the month maybe things will change and let storms travel and take a more northern track towards the Lesser Antilles and into the Bahamas.

I was on the same thought and intuitive process of the pattern trends. Soon or later the chicken will come home to roost