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Darby Makes the Closest Pass to Honolulu by a Tropical Storm in Recorded History

By: Jeff Masters 3:34 PM GMT on July 25, 2016

The closest approach on record by a tropical storm to the island of Oahu resulted in torrential rains in excess of ten inches there as Tropical Storm Darby passed just 40 miles to the south and west of Honolulu, Oahu on Sunday with sustained winds of 40 mph. No other named storm on record has passed that close to Honolulu or Oahu since accurate records began in 1949. Rainfall amounts of over ten inches in the 24 hours ending at 3:45 am HST Monday were reported at five locations on the eastern half of Oahu from Darby:

11.09" Moanalua RG
10.94" Nuuanu Upper
10.81" Luluku
10.70" Waihee Pump
10.04" Palisades

Monday morning Hawaiian radar showed that Darby continued to stream bands of heavy rain over the island, and satellite loops showed that Darby still had plenty of heavy thunderstorms on the northeast side of its circulation. Over the weekend, Darby also brought rains in excess of ten inches to West Wailuaiki, Maui (12.63") and Paauilo, on the Big Island (10.19"). There have been several road closures on Oahu due to flooding, and as of 10 pm HST Sunday, the Honolulu fire department reported 59 calls from residents who needed to be evacuated from their homes due to flooding. About 1,000 customers have lost power from the storm thus far. Darby, downgraded to a tropical depression at 11 am EDT Monday, should cease deluging Oahu by Monday afternoon as the storm pulls away to the west.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated precipitation from Tropical Storm Darby as of 10:53 am EDT (14:53 UTC) Monday, July 25, 2016. A band of heavy 6 - 11" rains fell just east of Honolulu on Oahu Island in Hawaii.


Figure 2. Tracks of all tropical cyclones (tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes) to pass within 100 miles of the Hawaiian Islands, 1949 - 2016. No named storm at tropical storm strength has passed closer to Honolulu and Oahu in recorded history than Darby, though Raymond hit the island as a tropical depression in 1983. Image credit: NOAA/CSC.

Direct hits by tropical storms and hurricane are uncommon in Hawaii
Darby made a direct hit on the Big Island of Hawaii on Saturday, becoming just the fifth named storm since 1949 to make landfall on a Hawaiian Island. The others were:

Tropical Storm Iselle, which made landfall along the southeast shore of Hawaii's Big Island on August 8, 2014 as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Iselle killed one person and did $79 million in damage.

Hurricane Iniki, which hit Kauai as a Category 4 hurricane, killing 6 and causing $1.8 billion in damage (1992 dollars.)

Hurricane Dot, which hit Kauai as a Category 1 hurricane, causing 6 indirect deaths and $6 million in damage (1959 dollars.)

An unnamed 1958 storm that had sustained winds of 50 mph at landfall on the Big Island. The storm killed one person and caused $0.5 million in damage.

Hawaii has seen a lot of activity over the past three years, which may be a harbinger of things to come--see my August 2014 post, Climate Change May Increase the Number of Hawaiian Hurricanes.

Eastern Pacific gets its third major hurricane of the year: Georgette
We're not even into August, and the Eastern Pacific has already had as many major hurricanes as it typically gets in an entire year: three. Hurricane Georgette, which topped out as an impressive Category 4 storm with 130 mph winds on Monday morning, is the latest addition to the club. Georgette is the seventh named storm to form in the Eastern Pacific this month, tying the July record for named storms set in 1985. Since July 2, we've had Tropical Storm Agatha, Category 4 Hurricane Blas, Category 2 Hurricane Celia, Category 3 Hurricane Darby, Tropical Storm Estelle, Tropical Storm Frank and Category 4 Hurricane Georgette. This puts us well ahead of climatology: the Eastern Pacific usually does not see its seventh named storm until August 7, its fourth hurricane until August 12, and its third major hurricane until September 20. An average season has 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.


Figure 3. VIIRS visible satellite image of Tropical Storms Frank (right) and Hurricane Georgette (left) taken at 5:20 pm EDT Sunday July 24, 2016. At the time, Georgette was an intensifying Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

The Atlantic is still quiet
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming five days. A few recent runs of the GFS model have been highlighting the possible development this weekend of a tropical wave predicted to come off the coast of Africa around July 27. The 00Z Monday run of the GFS ensemble forecast had about 30% of its twenty ensemble members predict that a tropical depression would form this weekend or early next week midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Most of these forecasts had the storm dying out the middle Atlantic, due to unfavorable conditions. There will be several impressive pulses of dry air and dust coming off the Sahara Desert over the next ten days, which will likely make it challenging for any tropical waves to develop (check out this animation of the 10-day African dust forecast from NASA.) Less than 10% of the 50 members of the 00Z Monday European model forecast showed a tropical depression forming in the Atlantic over the next ten days. I'm not expecting to see anything form in the Atlantic until August.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Masters. It is perfectly normal for the active part of the season to start around the 3rd week of august.
Thanks Dr. Masters!
Thanx for the update. The waiting game continues
Obs related to potential GOM low.
Surface wind and pmsl 1000 cdt July 25, 2016


Lower convergence (the partner of upper divergence) 1000cdt July 25, 2015
I dont know guys....that area in the GOM is looking better and better. Warm waters, low shear...Tropical development maybe?
flash flood watch was issued for kauai due to darby
As a Houston native, I've seen a number of "instant" tropical storms spin up in the hot Gulf broth in late July-early August The radar of the Gulf south of Louisiana looks ominous this morning.
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters...
The NHC may need to break out a fresh yellow crayon for the GOM. Time will tell.
From the previous blog

CMC
The tropical Atlantic basin continues to be quiet with no tropical development expected for at least the next seven days.
Dry, dusty air remains the main inhibiting factor for development across much of the basin. As tropical waves move off Africa, they encounter this dry air which causes thunderstorms associated with these waves to weaken. The presence of this dry air and strong wind shear will remain in place through this week and into the weekend. (Accuweather)
all is quiet :-(
Thanks Dr.; plenty of time for the Central Atlantic MDR to moisten
up over the next four weeks. An interesting note is that the wave
closer to Africa is only moving along at 10 knots. This may signal a
change this year from the faster trade winds the last several seasons
that produced weak tropical storms in the Central Atlantic that were not
able to stack-up and intensify due to a combination of faster speeds as
well as dry air issues; is may boil down to available moisture to pull up north
of the ITCZ, and favorable shear, to see if we actually get a hurricane this
season entering the Caribbean as such.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic from 09N-19N with axis
near 29W, moving W at 10 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is
associated with a 1011 mb low centered near 13N29W. Meteosat
composite imagery show Saharan dry air and dust intrusion into the
wave environment, which is hindering convection at the time.

26 knot winds at Oil Platform
28.429 N 92.878 W
Above average hot NW GOM water
Hurricane Humberto 2007 repeat?
The basin will bring the chaos in due time. Use this grace to prepare for that chaos now.

All the posturing and insight won't bring anything as the Atlantic rolls to its own beat.
Some motion and mojo spinning about out there
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 7.8 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 7.8 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 1.6 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 5 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 3.8 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): SSW ( 209 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.96 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.03 in ( Rising )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 85.5 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 86.2 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 75.4 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 94.6 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 7.8 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 7.8 kts

Only issue is pressures are not falling underneath.
Quoting 13. Climate175:

The tropical Atlantic basin continues to be quiet with no tropical development expected for at least the next seven days.
Dry, dusty air remains the main inhibiting factor for development across much of the basin. As tropical waves move off Africa, they encounter this dry air which causes thunderstorms associated with these waves to weaken. The presence of this dry air and strong wind shear will remain in place through this week and into the weekend. (Accuweather)

Not writing off the season or anything, but ughhh... this is why I am learning to detach myself from this. If you depend on having consistent excitement from tropical cyclones in the Atlantic these days, you're going to be miserably disappointed something like 85% of the time. Gotta focus on what else is going on in life for now...
Why do members awatys try to compare clouds or a invest area to a single past storm?

Do you ever see the pros do that?

No.


One cannot interpret any past set of conditions for a former storm...and think it can compare to the genesis of one today.

That's lunacy.
But looking good so far in terms of the moisture flow into the East Atlantic from Africa:





Quoting Jeff Masters:
There will be several impressive pulses of dry air and dust coming off the Sahara Desert over the next ten days, which will likely make it challenging for any tropical waves to develop... I'm not expecting to see anything form in the Atlantic until August.
Maybe not "exciting" enough for some here, but music to the ears of anyone who has property, family, and/or interests in Florida.
Just wanted to say thanks to everybody on the blog for helping me understand weather and having great knowledge about it. I have now been on here 6 years now and feel very good about a lot of things that has happen to me during these years on the blog. I'm very excited to say the most that you guys are my second family and always will and forever love blogging with you guys as long as I stay on here. Thanks guys!
Quoting 23. Neapolitan:

Maybe not "exciting" enough for some here, but music to the ears of anyone who has property, family, and/or interests in Florida.


Or anywhere along the Atlantic or Gulf coasts or the Eastern Seaboard
Updated (11:00 am) vort and shear charts for the Gulf; that ULL off the East coast of Florida continues to enhance the convection but there is a broad cyclonic circulation at the mid and surface levels.  However, the relative shear over the area has increased to the 20-30 knot range from earlier this morning:





Surface:



Mid-Level:



ULL:
Quoting 21. Patrap:

Why do members awatys try to compare clouds or a invest area to a single past storm?

Do you ever see the pros do that?

No.


One cannot interpret any past set of conditions for a former storm...and think it can compare to the genesis of one today.

That's lunacy.


Lunacy is very popular nowadays and quite public, no less. Strangely enough, the college football blogs are about the same state of anticipation and b/s craziness.
The ULL is pushing to the West into the Gulf off of Florida:




Good day everyone. Sunny day here in Antigua with a slight drizzle now and then. I'm on vacation and enjoying every moment of it. Have a great day!!
Could the area in the GOM develop into anything?

Quoting 33. Adam2001:

Could the area in the GOM develop into anything?

Not until NHC brakes out a yellow crayon............................................ .........
I for one never discount the Gulf,July thru Nov.
Quoting 34. weathermanwannabe:

Not until NHC brakes out a yellow crayon............................................ .........


You have to be a certain age to recognize how dangerous the purple ones are among some people.
Quoting 28. walkshills:



Lunacy is very popular nowadays and quite public, no less. Strangely enough, the college football blogs are about the same state of anticipation and b/s craziness.


Tropical cyclones are governed by physics. College football is governed by ?? ?? ?? ??
Me holding out on this blog had almost worn out after the climate change ridiculousness/shenanigans, subsequent mean, combative posters of said topic, and the painstaking quiet seasons. The only thing that is keeping me is that moment where a major hurricane is hitting close to home and I can track it's every move and report on my conditions with the level headed, tropically focused group on here. I thank that core group for always being here and your presence to keep this blog friendly.

And I don't care if some people interpret my zeal for such an event as sadistic or whatever. I'm sorry you can't seem to disassociate that negativity with the excitement of tracking these natural phenomena.

See you all when we have some real activity in the Atlantic. I don't think it will be dead quiet the entire rest of this season. Cheers
Note to the wunder mechanics......


The local radars level 2 base reflectivity .50 elevation 248 nm range mode is Still not working.
Quoting 22. weathermanwannabe:

But looking good so far in terms of the moisture flow into the East Atlantic from Africa:







i agree, the SAL levels aren't impossible. we really need to keep on eye on the MDR
Can't tell you how many times we have seen a storm pop up when conditions were far from ideal. All we need now is for Dr. Masters to go on vacation. Always a sure thing.

Or Gro posts a blob picture that looks like Trump's hair.

Best wishes all. I need waves. Flat summer.
Climate change is a very important subject and area of science for this entries author and millions who follow his entries on that subject,here.


How any one human reacts to DAT matters much more to him/her..than to anyone here.

GMZ001-260215-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1015 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE N
CENTRAL GULF WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE N GULF THROUGH TUE NIGHT. HIGH PRES
EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL SHIFT BACK
TO THE NORTHERN WATERS TUE NIGHT THROUGH SAT. A THERMAL TROUGH
WILL MOVE OFF THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING
WITH LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS
Quoting 43. Patrap:

Climate change is a very important subject and area of science for this entries author and millions who follow his entries on that subject,here.


How any one human reacts to DAT matters much more to him..than to anyone here.



I agree that climate change is an issue we must worry about and that it affects all aspects of the tropics, but a long discussion on this topic in the comments section is simply not needed at this moment.
Have a great day!
thanks for update doc
finally some good rains
25mm 4 till 6 this am
humid as hell now
with a feel like temp of 99
Quoting 23. Neapolitan:

Maybe not "exciting" enough for some here, but music to the ears of anyone who has property, family, and/or interests in Florida.
Yep...it is only a matter of time.....it worries a bit..I have been through quite a few....Nothing but destruction and misery for months on end...
Quoting 23. Neapolitan:

Maybe not "exciting" enough for some here, but music to the ears of anyone who has property, family, and/or interests in Florida.


Why just Florida? For anyone that sits along or in the paths of storms.
It's beginning to look a lot like the past years in the tropical Atlantic. lots and lots of dry, dusty and sinking air. All we hear is wait for August/September period, before we see any action. By the look of things it does appear we might be heading for one of these below average seasons with very weak tropical storms.
52. Ed22
Quoting 32. Patrap:



I think it could develop, but we'll wait and see what the NHC will do later. I've been watching it from last night till now and its pretty impressive with a some spin going on in the Gulf of Mexico- wind shear low to moderate 5 to 20 knots
Link to dust forecast over Africa and Atlantic...Link
Quoting 51. stoormfury:

It's beginning to look a lot like the past years in the tropical Atlantic. lots and lots of dry, dusty and sinking air. All we hear is wait for August/September period, before we see any action. By the look of things it does appear we might be heading for one of these below average seasons with very weak tropical storms.


How's the weather in St Lucia been? drought over there?
We are depressed...
Nola Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile.

Question for me is it enough to kill any waves before they reach 50W or will they simply low ride into more favorable conditions closer to home. I fear the latter. We aren't out of the woods, we're just entering them.

Quoting 53. hydrus:

Link to dust forecast over Africa and Atlantic...Link
Quoting 51. stoormfury:

It's beginning to look a lot like the past years in the tropical Atlantic. lots and lots of dry, dusty and sinking air. All we hear is wait for August/September period, before we see any action. By the look of things it does appear we might be heading for one of these below average seasons with very weak tropical storms.


Those years also had above average wind shear and SSTS not as warm as this year. Chances of this season being below average are not very high.
An engine is being powered up
Quoting 42. HaoleboySurfEC:

Can't tell you how many times we have seen a storm pop up when conditions were far from ideal. All we need now is for Dr. Masters to go on vacation. Always a sure thing.

Or Gro posts a blob picture that looks like Trump's hair.

Best wishes all. I need waves. Flat summer.


No matter how you look at it, somehow, somewhere, there is always a blob with your name on it :):)
Quoting 57. HaoleboySurfEC:

Question for me is it enough to kill any waves before they reach 50W or will they simply low ride into more favorable conditions closer to home. I fear the latter. We aren't out of the woods, we're just entering them.


The truth is its a matter of timing. Notice the dust come out in surges, then relaxes a bit. The current waves may put a damper on some of the dust, allowing future waves to develop. The storms will be tricky this year, and anything that comes in to the Caribbean may have an affect on the islands and the U.S.. It is a long way out, and may receive some static, but the GFS long range is showing a sharp increase in wind speed above 10 degrees, while shear south of this line will be low to none...

Quoting 46. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




The low that wasn't supposed to form because .......

It is certainly not a case of a hostile environment basin-wide. Doubt we are looking at record year in terms of number of storms or ACE, but I also can't see it being a "bust." The forecasted dust surges and abates. Definitely some windows for development in there. Also we are only looking through roughly August 5th.

I think the models will really struggle (more than usual) nailing development this season due to the variability of conditions across the basin. Once the storms form, I think the models will be much more reliable.

Quoting 62. hydrus:

The truth is its a matter of timing. Notice the dust come out in surges, then relaxes a bit. The current waves may put a damper on some of the dust, allowing future waves to develop. The storms will be tricky this year, and anything that comes in to the Caribbean may have an affect on the islands and the U.S.. It is a long way out, and may receive some static, but the GFS long range is showing a sharp increase in wind speed above 10 degrees, while shear south of this line will be low to none...


MID GULF nm South of Southwest Pass, LA
Station ID: BUOY42001 Lat: 25.90 Lon: -89.67
27 mph
Wind From SW
Gusts 31 mph


Garden Banks 172
Station ID: KGHB Lat: 27.84 Lon: -91.99 Elev: 0 ft
27 mph
Wind From SW
Gusts 36 mph


Small vort showing at 138 hours in the Florida Straits...

Good afternoon everyone,

Just kind of checking in on the "Upper Level Low"
out in the GOM :o)

Now do I think it will form because of water temps
and or low wind shear????
Nope I don't.... just saying
I do know we'll have more rain from it and some winds,
and maybe some higher than normal waves along the
"North Gulf Coast" but that's it....
Now do I think it's a sign on what's to come "Maybe"
but that's just my opinion..... I do feel our Hurricane
Drought will end this year and the CONUS will have
a major Hurricane to deal with....
Just hang on everyone this ride will be "Bumpy"

Taco :o)
Very warm over the gulf...

Quoting 68. hydrus:

Very warm over the gulf...




Better than this being a red tide forecast
Quoting 67. taco2me61:

Good afternoon everyone,

Just kind of checking in on the "Upper Level Low"
out in the GOM :o)

Now do I think it will form because of water temps
and or low wind shear????
Nope I don't.... just saying
I do know we'll have more rain from it and some winds,
and maybe some higher than normal waves along the
"North Gulf Coast" but that's it....
Now do I think it's a sign on what's to come "Maybe"
but that's just my opinion..... I do feel our Hurricane
Drought will end this year and the CONUS will have
a major Hurricane to deal with....
Just hang on everyone this ride will be "Bumpy"

Taco :o)


Go have a taco ;)
Scorching sun with fair skies, storms popping inland....atmosphere about to go bat ---- crazy later this afternoon.
Quoting 72. RitaEvac:

Scorching sun with fair skies, storms popping inland....atmosphere about to go bat ---- crazy later this afternoon.


My lawn can't get it soon enough. Bring on the downpours! (Just stop them before rush hour, please.)

Also, sea breeze about to make it to south Harris county. Lots of factors at play, hopefully it squeezes a lot of that thick moisture out of the air.
Quoting 70. RitaEvac:



Go have a taco ;)


I did last night because it was "Taco Sunday"
and tonight is "Hotdog Monday"
LOL

Taco :o)
Looking n and east at this coming in.

Looks like Georgette is heading for stable air and cooler waters...

Good afternoon everyone,

1st time on this season commenting, but always a constant looker....is it just me or is that blob below La looking somewhat favorable, of course i am probably wrong but have seen worse get developed. last few hours it seems to want or try to get organized somewhat.... being just a surfer and watching how they develop and track always helps out on the next swell....like seeing all the regs on here giving there input...keep up the great job!!!

Some CRAZY lightning with the storm near Elmira. (had to make an imgur link because for some reason it wouldn't let me post radar from here)

EDIT: the storm has passed, the gif in this post has no use anymore, therefore it has been removed.
Ok everyone the Euro finally showing the wave developing a little at 120 hours
Aloha Dr. Masters'

I'm troubled by the lack of reporting on the Island of Kauai.
As the "eye" of TS Darby allegedly passed over Kauai...
Where is the highest ground wind speed?
Where are the rainfall totals, for Kauai?
All satellite maps show the rain clouds moving north-northwest from Oahu and the TS symbol moving northeast...ODD.
I noticed the divergence of Darby's TS symbol,and the actual clouds formation after Darby collided with the big Island of Hawaii.
I live on Maui in Kula and the rain totals according to numerous weather stations showed 0.1" of rain with wind speeds less than 5 MPH...
I was here for Hurricane Iwa 1982, it brought 50 MPH winds to Kula, with huge amounts of rain, it was much further away than TS Darby......

Just for fun could you review this storm with the tools available to you?
Thanks..



84. Ed22
Quoting 59. RitaEvac:

Something interesting going on now, speed this loop up fast and note the low level inflow from TX and LA being sucked southward into the convection and Gulf
Your right, I saw it and I agree something is going on, however I think it has a chance at development due to good conditions so over the Gulf of Mexico. Later let see what the NHC will do.
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
1228 PM CDT Monday Jul 25 2016

Previous discussion... /issued 757 am CDT Monday Jul 25 2016/

.Sounding discussion...

The sounding this morning depicts a rich tropical airmass. Precipitable water is
near the daily Max for this time of year at 2.3 inches. The
profile is classic for possible waterspouts under any quickly
building cumulus towers. A weak inversion at the sfc will mix out
quickly and modest low level lapse rates will provide the
instability for cumulus to form. The overall flow is light from
the east which is also favorable. Storms can be efficient rain
makers again today with the deep warm cloud layer and long skinny
cape profile both indicators. Mixed layer cape is 1600 j/kg and
2450 j/kg most unstable. Convective temperature is 85 f which is
the lowest of the week. Morning hrrr runs have scattered coverage
over land though... indicate more moisture pulled together south
of la over the Gulf.

Krautmann

Previous discussion... /issued 333 am CDT Monday Jul 25 2016/

Short term...

An inverted upper level trough axis will continue to move westward
across the Gulf of Mexico and the central Gulf Coast through
Wednesday. This upper level feature will be the main influence
over the weather forecast, and will bring increased rain chances
to the region through the short term period. These higher rain
chances will be driven largely by two things. The first will be
increased upper level lift associated resulting from the lower
pressure aloft, and the second will be surge of deep tropical
moisture into the area. This surge of moisture is most evident in
the precipitable water content of the atmosphere. Precipitable
water values are expected to increase from around 2 inches today
to nearly 2.5 inches by Tuesday and Wednesday.

This extra available moisture combined with ample instability
throughout the atmospheric column will allow for the development
of numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms both Tuesday
and Wednesday. Currently, the forecast calls for rain chances of
50 to 60 percent from mid-morning through the afternoon hours
today. However, rain chances will increase to 60 to 80 percent for
both Tuesday and Wednesday. Although widespread heavy rainfall is
not expected through Wednesday, some isolated locations could see
locally heavy rainfall of 2 to 3 inches and possible street
flooding issues due to the high moisture content of the expected
airmass. Rainfall activity will tend to be diurnally driven with
more isolated to scattered convective activity expected during the
overnight hours. Rainfall will be most likely closest to the
coast and in the coastal waters during the overnight hours.

The increase in convective activity and overall cloud development
should allow temperatures to cool slightly from the readings
observed recently. Daytime highs should only rise into the upper
80s to near 90 today through Wednesday. Overnight lows will remain
near normal in the middle to upper 70s each night.

Long term...

The inverted upper level trough should move into Texas and merge
with some northern stream energy to produce one broad area of
lower pressure aloft across the lower Mississippi Valley and
Southern Plains through the weekend. Farther to the east, a fairly
strong upper level ridge should be parked over Florida and the
eastern Gulf. Thus, there should be gradient in terms of forcing
aloft and overall rain chances across the forecast area through
the entire extended period. Precipitable water values are expected
to fall back to more seasonal norms around 2 inches, and
convective instability is forecast remain in place through the
period as temperatures easily climb back into the lower 90s. The
biggest driver of convective coverage is expected to be where the
influence of the ridge and some resultant subsidence and weak
convective inhibition is felt the most. At this point, it looks
like a general northwest to southeast gradient of pop should be
in place through the weekend. Higher rain chances should be over
parts of southwest Mississippi and interior areas of southeast
Louisiana while the coasts and coastal waters see somewhat lower
pop through the period. Rain chances are forecast to generally
range from 30 to 50 percent farther inland and 20 to 30 percent
closer to the coast.

Aviation...

Convection will continue to develop along and offshore this
morning. Some of these are expected to move ashore and affect
several terminals today and will show this as prevailing for at
least all coastal terminals. Other than the convective threat,
terminals will see VFR conditions.

Marine...

A weak inverted trough has started to develop along the northern
Gulf Coast oriented east west. This will help provide an abundance
of showers and thunderstorms to the coastal waters over the next
24 hours. The trough will cause winds to increase to 15 knots
mainly over open Gulf waters through Tuesday and east of the river
Wednesday. These conditions will be mostly felt south and east of
the weak sfc low located near the mouth of the miss r. Showers and
thunderstorms will also provide gusty conditions in and near
where they develop and move. Two upper lows will then move across
the Gulf keeping a chance of showers and thunderstorms through
much of the week. Waterspouts will be prevalent through at least
Tuesday with a decrease in number Wednesday through Friday. The
Atlantic high will then ridge into the northern Gulf over the
weekend.

Decision support...

Dss code: green.
Deployed: none.
Activation: none.
Activities: none.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.
Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event.
Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = high impacts; slight to moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; hazmat or other large episodes.
Red = full engagement for moderate risk of severe and/or
direct tropical threats; events of National significance.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
mcb 91 73 90 73 / 50 30 50 40
btr 90 74 90 75 / 60 40 70 50
asd 90 75 89 75 / 60 40 70 50
msy 90 79 90 78 / 60 50 70 60
gpt 89 76 87 77 / 60 50 70 60
pql 90 75 88 75 / 60 50 70 60

&&

Lix watches/warnings/advisories...
la...none.
GM...none.
MS...none.
GM...none.
&&

$$
86. IDTH
Quoting 81. Patrap:





For some reason this system reminds me of Tropical Storm Lee back in 2011.
LA, Texas, and the Yucatan Peninsula are in for some rain over the next few days regardless given the very broad trof:


South Plains sector loop








Quoting 84. Ed22:

Your right, I saw it and I agree something is going on, however I think it has a chance at development due to good conditions so over the Gulf of Mexico. Later let see what the NHC will do.

That does certainly look ominous on satellite and with the gom holding heat the way it is this is certainly something to watch. We've had pop up thunderstorms almost daily in the Biloxi area, some surprisingly strong.
Echo tops to 60k feet.

Quoting 51. stoormfury:

It's beginning to look a lot like the past years in the tropical Atlantic. lots and lots of dry, dusty and sinking air. All we hear is wait for August/September period, before we see any action. By the look of things it does appear we might be heading for one of these below average seasons with very weak tropical storms.

With the exception of 05 August and September are always the busy periods.
Take it for what its worth....put now.Cheers.

I bet the EURO picks up on it now that the GFS has dropped it, can't they agree for once lol.
Quoting 82. James1981cane:

Ok everyone the Euro finally showing the wave developing a little at 120 hours
'The best solution? Move the Mauritanian capital': water on the rise in Nouakchott
A prisoner of climate change, Nouakchott faces challenges of flooding and erosion that have been exacerbated by preparations for the Arab League summit
The Guardian, Alex Duval Smith in Nouakchott, Monday 25 July 2016 09.00 BST
... Much of the city is at or below sea level, protected from the ocean only by an eroding dune. In the past decade, local and international studies have warned that the city is in danger of being swallowed by the sea. Yet a frenzy of construction has preceded the summit, leading to fears of disastrous flooding when the rains come in August. ...
Whole article see link above.

Mauritania is at the western coast of Africa where "our" wave train uses to emerge to the Atlantic this time of the year:
NHC now:
"When we see 5 tropical systems around we don't even give a 10% chance for them to form beacuse who cares lol there's nothing there it's probably connected to a front and medicanes never existed even if they're subtropical LOL" (yes we had a subtropical medicane yesterday...)
i just feel a lot of people have no patients on this season. If we get a storm rolling over on this side of the Atlantic Im pretty sure some models that are not picking up to much of storms that has been predicted will begin to pop up out the ordinary unexpected. Some models dont pick up on those unexpected storms and I see that a lot so thats why im laying back and watching and waiting. Cant wait to see the ending result of this year's tally also. I just feel like this season will be interesting and very nerve racking for the most.
Quoting 92. washingtonian115:

Take it for what its worth....put now.Cheers.


Hey Wash...looks like fall their..:)
sat. loop looks as if a low pressure is forming around 32 w 12 n
I just got blasted by a nice little gust front on the south side of Fort Myers.

100. vis0

Quoting 21. Patrap:

Why do members awatys try to compare clouds or a invest area to a single past storm?

Do you ever see the pros do that?

No.


One cannot interpret any past set of conditions for a former storm...and think it can compare to the genesis of one today.

That's lunacy.
If you're emphasizing "to a single past storm?" i'd agree but later you say

"Do you ever see the pros do that?"

 

The answer is yes! but they do it in their studies or through model runs otherwise we'd never will learn from the past which is how science gets most of its facts.

 
On the blog side::
On the blog the problem is "democracy", since members have a certain right to post comments dealing with the blog/blogbyte so some members post from experience (as you) while other members post "just for the heck of it" 
Some older some younger.
 

On the scientific side::

The problem with TS genesis  is we don't have enough "real time" info and TS do not leave REAL TIME information stored in a manner where any form of science that researches clues left behind could find within a planet to build TS activities of the past thus help better understand them, just as archeologist do to figure out past civilizations by digging.

 

So i have to disagree as to it being "lunacy". At worst its boredom transferred into wishful thinking and a desire to see activity for ones adrenalin run. Hope those that do it for the adrenalin understand these storms affect lives and those lives include their life.

 

There is ONE VERY IMPORTANT POINT that one needs to add.  That is as to the affects of a warmer atmosphere which does make past historical records that thrived on a "normal cyclic rise and fall"  of atmospheric influences less reliable as to predicting how any occurrence/activity in weather/nature will react to the warmer atmosphere.  One example i think i'm seeing this year so far are several "Themicanes". Themicaines? = Where we see not just 2 swirls close by competing to create one central cyclonic swirl but 3 or 4+.  In the GoMx & ~ATL there might not be enough room during off peak TS periods (till the next century when it'll be warm enough to extends NHC areas to ...Greenland?) but in the Pacific these tend to generate into big TS.

 

SINCERELY

a  lunatic  plain nut...slightly salted (still sweating it out) ...uh time to ring out the seat cushion illllllllllll
BACK TO OBS will the ULL build to a lower level,   will the tiny wave near Antilles bring rain,.   will the Tropical Wave interacting with a tiny HIGH in MId ATL at ~20N do anything   and  will the storms coming off Africa create a better path for following tropical waves will weathger on all four corners of the world square up?, stay tuned and read HURLO's how to prepare for a TS/Hurricane even floods.
For whatever this is worth, the lower and mid-level cloud decks over Tallahassee are starting to get pulled to the West in the direction of the low over coastal LA:




Naples getting in on some action.
ASCAT
Indian Hills PWS Link
Great imaginary from Himawari-8 of Darby. He was decapitated. His low level swirl is clearly seen just west of the islands, still heading west (click pick to see the loop). Darby's convection was whisked off to the northeast.

Its a pretty complex environment in the Gulf right now between the lower level low now off the coast of LA, and the ULL in the Eastern Gulf enhancing convection and causing shear. My amateur opinion is that the whole mess might be too close to land to develop, and shear-wise as well, but that it could turn out to be a significant rainmaker regardless. Have to see how it looks tomorrow and if that low continues to hug the Coast.  As of 2:00 PM:

Relative Shear:

Lower:

Upper:



109. vis0
Thunder over / near zip 10016 raining lightly now ~54s after the first thunder, no winds Sun trying to break through
Could someone refresh my memory and tell me what rain and lightning looks like! It seems like it has been a month or so since we have had any storms here in ecfl ( Melbourne). Is this pattern ever going to break so we might get some rain? Geez!
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
1228 PM CDT Monday Jul 25 2016

Previous discussion... /issued 757 am CDT Monday Jul 25 2016/

Sounding discussion...
The sounding this morning depicts a rich tropical airmass. Precipitable water is
near the daily Max for this time of year at 2.3 inches. The
profile is classic for possible waterspouts under any quickly
building cumulus towers. A weak inversion at the sfc will mix out
quickly and modest low level lapse rates will provide the
instability for cumulus to form. The overall flow is light from
the east which is also favorable. Storms can be efficient rain
makers again today with the deep warm cloud layer and long skinny
cape profile.

Previous discussion... /issued 333 am CDT Monday Jul 25 2016/

Short term...

An inverted upper level trough axis will continue to move westward
across the Gulf of Mexico and the central Gulf Coast through
Wednesday. This upper level feature will be the main influence
over the weather forecast, and will bring increased rain chances
to the region through the short term period. These higher rain
chances will be driven largely by two things. The first will be
increased upper level lift associated resulting from the lower
pressure aloft, and the second will be surge of deep tropical
moisture into the area. This surge of moisture is most evident in
the precipitable water content of the atmosphere. Precipitable
water values are expected to increase from around 2 inches today
to nearly 2.5 inches by Tuesday and Wednesday.

This extra available moisture combined with ample instability
throughout the atmospheric column will allow for the development
of numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms both Tuesday
and Wednesday. Currently, the forecast calls for rain chances of
50 to 60 percent from mid-morning through the afternoon hours
today. However, rain chances will increase to 60 to 80 percent for
both Tuesday and Wednesday. Although widespread heavy rainfall is
not expected through Wednesday, some isolated locations could see
locally heavy rainfall of 2 to 3 inches and possible street
flooding issues due to the high moisture content of the expected
airmass. Rainfall activity will tend to be diurnally driven with
more isolated to scattered convective activity expected during the
overnight hours. Rainfall will be most likely closest to the
coast and in the coastal waters during the overnight hours.

The increase in convective activity and overall cloud development
should allow temperatures to cool slightly from the readings
observed recently. Daytime highs should only rise into the upper
80s to near 90 today through Wednesday. Overnight lows will remain
near normal in the middle to upper 70s each night.

Long term...

The inverted upper level trough should move into Texas and merge
with some northern stream energy to produce one broad area of
lower pressure aloft across the lower Mississippi Valley and
Southern Plains through the weekend. Farther to the east, a fairly
strong upper level ridge should be parked over Florida and the
eastern Gulf. Thus, there should be gradient in terms of forcing
aloft and overall rain chances across the forecast area through
the entire extended period. Precipitable water values are expected
to fall back to more seasonal norms around 2 inches, and
convective instability is forecast remain in place through the
period as temperatures easily climb back into the lower 90s. The
biggest driver of convective coverage is expected to be where the
influence of the ridge and some resultant subsidence and weak
convective inhibition is felt the most. At this point, it looks
like a general northwest to southeast gradient of pop should be
in place through the weekend. Higher rain chances should be over
parts of southwest Mississippi and interior areas of southeast
Louisiana while the coasts and coastal waters see somewhat lower
pop through the period. Rain chances are forecast to generally
range from 30 to 50 percent farther inland and 20 to 30 percent
closer to the coast.



Marine...

A weak inverted trough has started to develop along the northern
Gulf Coast oriented east west. This will help provide an abundance
of showers and thunderstorms to the coastal waters over the next
24 hours. The trough will cause winds to increase to 15 knots
mainly over open Gulf waters through Tuesday and east of the river
Wednesday. These conditions will be mostly felt south and east of
the weak sfc low located near the mouth of the miss r. Showers and
thunderstorms will also provide gusty conditions in and near
where they develop and move. Two upper lows will then move across
the Gulf keeping a chance of showers and thunderstorms through
much of the week. Waterspouts will be prevalent through at least
Tuesday with a decrease in number Wednesday through Friday. The
Atlantic high will then ridge into the northern Gulf over the
weekend.

Decision support...

Dss code: green.
Deployed: none.
Activation: none.
Activities: none.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.
Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event.
Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = high impacts; slight to moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; hazmat or other large episodes.
Red = full engagement for moderate risk of severe and/or
direct tropical threats; events of National significance.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
mcb 91 73 90 73 / 50 30 50 40
btr 90 74 90 75 / 60 40 70 50
asd 90 75 89 75 / 60 40 70 50
msy 90 79 90 78 / 60 50 70 60
gpt 89 76 87 77 / 60 50 70 60
pql 90 75 88 75 / 60 50 70 60

&&

Lix watches/warnings/advisories...
la...none.
GM...none.
MS...none.
GM...none.
&&

$$


Lots of thunder and lightening here ...my poor little peanut, handling it better than he used to though.
Dropped 15 degrees in like ten minutes
It's always sunny in Philadelphia. 97F, dewpoint 74F, heat index 108F. Sweaty protesters. Hopefully no dead ones.

At Federal Hill
l it is 105F with a crisp 78F degree dew point for a heat index of 125F. Lovely. My complete summation of the Democratic convention so far in comment #1116 of my blog.
Of note from the Nola disco,..


Two upper lows will then move across
the Gulf keeping a chance of showers and thunderstorms through
much of the week. Waterspouts will be prevalent through at least
Tuesday with a decrease in number Wednesday through Friday. The
Atlantic high will then ridge into the northern Gulf over the
weekend.

Quoting 113. BaltimoreBrian:

It's always sunny in Philadelphia. 97°F, dewpoint 74°F, heat index 108°F. Sweaty protesters. Hopefully no dead ones.

At Federal Hill
l it is 105°F with a crisp 78°F degree dew point for a heat index of 125°. Lovely. My complete summation of the Democratic convention so far in comment #1116 of my blog.


Your first link has extra stuff in it!!
xx/xx/xx


it would appear as if the low is building convection along sw la gulf coast
it should diminish after sunset
Quoting 112. justmehouston:

Lots of thunder and lightening here ...my poor little peanut, handling it better than he used to though.
Dropped 15 degrees in like ten minutes


Been pouring here. Tropical funnel clouds around. Flood advisory in place. But it is 75 degrees. :)
Thanks PedleyCA. Fixed.
Quoting 110. hurricanewatcher61:

Could someone refresh my memory and tell me what rain and lightning looks like! It seems like it has been a month or so since we have had any storms here in ecfl ( Melbourne). Is this pattern ever going to break so we might get some rain? Geez!





Here ya go ...just taken
Everyone have a safe weather afternoon and see Yall in the am. Leaving you with the global sst chart from yesterday; those SST's are starting to warm up a little closer to 10N in the Central Atlantic and the last thing that we need this season is a storm in the Gulf:




this dry weather is a blessing for our mosquito lagoon. runoff is our major problem not the discharges of the big lake. after our big fish kill (green and brown algae outbreak) a couple months ago no one knows for sure what next e cen fl.
I'm sorry to read the news from Greece below. 25 year ago I spent a week in Chios on my own, visiting those unique Mastic trees and the very picturesque towns on that island. Of course, wildfires are common in Greece. When I was there a pretty big part of the island was ashes due to an earlier fire but those Mastic trees were untouched. Bad that the island got hit again this year so severely .



Massive Fires Destroy Mastic Tree Groves on Chios
By Gregory Pappas on July 25, 2016
Fires have ravaged entire groves of mastic trees on the island of Chios. Officials on the island are mourning a catastrophic loss of mastic trees, which grow only on Chios.
The destruction in the villages of Elata, Vessa and Lithios is particularly extensive while the villages of Mesta and Olympous is also bad.
The fire broke out late Monday night and was fanned by windy conditions.
Authorities have declared a state of emergency while dozens of firefighters and aircraft were deployed to fight the forest fire. The Northern Aegean regional governor spoke to CNN Greece and described the scale of the destruction as "catastrophic."


From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Mastic (plant resin)
Mastic is a resin obtained from the mastic tree (Pistacia lentiscus). In pharmacies and nature shops, it is called "Arabic gum" (not to be confused with gum arabic) and "Yemen gum". In Greece, it is known as the "tears of Chios," being traditionally produced on that Greek island, and, like other natural resins, is produced in "tears" or droplets. ...
More see link above.


Mastic tears.

Edit: My own photos from 1992:


Woman returning from the harvest of mastic in Chios (back then some still used donkeys for transport).


Handling mastic.
Nam actually weakens the low over time and it landfalls at 1011 mb on the Florida Panhandle.
Quoting 38. georgevandenberghe:



Tropical cyclones are governed by physics. College football is governed by ?? ?? ?? ??
Money
could we see storm # 8 be for july ends?

ROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUL 25 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Frank, located a few hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Hurricane Georgette,
located about 1200 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula.

An area of low pressure could form in a few days roughly 1000 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Some development of this system is possible by late this
week while the disturbance moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
The HRRR models keeps the majority of the moisture off the coast of Texas. That is a possibility.
129. flsky
Be nice if posters would tell us where "here" is one in a while. Sheesh
Quoting 118. StillAtHome:



Been pouring here. Tropical funnel clouds around. Flood advisory in place. But it is 75 degrees. :)

Quoting 100. vis0:

On the blog side::
On the blog the problem is "democracy", since members have a certain right to post comments dealing with the blog/blogbyte so some members post from experience (as you) while other members post "just for the heck of it" 
Some older some younger.
 

On the scientific side::

The problem with TS genesis  is we don't have enough "real time" info and TS do not leave REAL TIME information stored in a manner where any form of science that researches clues left behind could find within a planet to build TS activities of the past thus help better understand them, just as archeologist do to figure out past civilizations by digging.

 



To fathom how the universe ticks, but damn those backward indo germanic lingos.
Hmmmm!!!!


The beach was very beautiful today.A few days ago I had asked some of our Floridian bloggers how 90 degree water felt.Today we found out and it wasn't that comfortable after a while so we headed to the pool.I've been keeping up with CWG and it looks like D.C hit 100 degrees today.It looks like we won't have any tropical troubles to worry about while down here so that is a plus.Out now.
Quoting 130. cRRKampen:


To fathom how the universe ticks, but damn those backward indo germanic lingos.
Hard to fathom 1 billion years, never mind nearly 14 billion...They have good evidence on the age of the Universe..
Cosmic microwave background radiation.....Link
Quoting 129. flsky:

Be nice if posters would tell us where "here" is one in a while. Sheesh




Oh sorry. Keep forgetting I'm on my new WU name. Lol. This is AtHomeInTx. That name doesn't work anymore apparently. I am in southeast Tx right by Louisiana border. About 90 miles or so east of Houston. Still raining here, though lightly now. A nice break from the heat. :)


Strong storms here in NYC and the tristate area this evening
Quoting 134. StillAtHome:



Oh sorry. Keep forgetting I'm on my new WU name. Lol. This is AtHomeInTx. That name doesn't work anymore apparently. I am in southeast Tx right by Louisiana border. About 90 miles or so east of Houston. Still raining here, though lightly now. A nice break from the heat. :)


What happened to your old account? You should keep trying if you have the credentials and complain if the don't work anymore.
Quoting 127. Tazmanian:

could we see storm # 8 be for july ends?

ROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUL 25 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Frank, located a few hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Hurricane Georgette,
located about 1200 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula.

An area of low pressure could form in a few days roughly 1000 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Some development of this system is possible by late this
week while the disturbance moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
RECORD BREAKING!!!
Quoting 132. washingtonian115:

The beach was very beautiful today.A few days ago I had asked some of our Floridian bloggers how 90 degree water felt.Today we found out and it wasn't that comfortable after a while so we headed to the pool.I've been keeping up with CWG and it looks like D.C hit 100 degrees today.It looks like we won't have any tropical troubles to worry about while down here so that is a plus.Out now.


Enjoy it buddy!!!
Quoting 136. PedleyCA:



What happened to your old account? You should keep trying if you have the credentials and complain if the don't work anymore.


I'm not sure what happened. It kept saying I was signed in but I couldn't comment and I had no buttons either. So I made a new account and waited my 24hrs. Then Baha said everyone had problems and I should try again, and my old account worked for about a day. Then went back to doing the same thing. So I figured I better quit while I'm ahead and just use this one. :)
Definitely not a good evening to be traveling in the NYC area. Nasty storms out there with damaging wind, flooding, and waterspouts observed offshore. Lots of flights diverting to Boston.
Quoting 132. washingtonian115:

The beach was very beautiful today.A few days ago I had asked some of our Floridian bloggers how 90 degree water felt.Today we found out and it wasn't that comfortable after a while so we headed to the pool.I've been keeping up with CWG and it looks like D.C hit 100 degrees today.It looks like we won't have any tropical troubles to worry about while down here so that is a plus.Out now.
What beach were you on? If on the East Coast, the temps were probably below 90, even though mid to high 80's is still warm. Much rather have the warm water and weather, then the cold you receive in DC.
142. Tcwx2
Here in S Alabama today was another hot day with a nice breeze from the Southeast from the gulf low. Looked like storms were headed my way but dry killed them. The + side was a decent outflow-boundary with wind gusts up to 20mph. Made a mess in my neighbors yard with some large branches down from pecan trees (usually they land in my yard, ha!) Am expecting a few decent rainfalls totals tomorrow and Wednesday. Just saw that the GFS tries to briefly close off next two waves, maybe a yellow circle there and possibly in the gulf. While some of you have now completely ruled out development from the wave that the GFS was developing, I wouldn't rule it out, especially down the road. EURO showing it stronger each run, ahh the joys of hurricane season! Have a good day!
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
324 PM CDT Monday Jul 25 2016

Synopsis...

Weak upper low over the eastern Gulf of Mexico with an inverted
surface trof off the Louisiana coast. The most widespread
convection has actually been over the Lake Charles County Warning Area and coastal
waters today, but scattered convection has developed over the
local area in the past 90 minutes, moving westward. Temperatures
have probably topped out for the day in the upper 80s to lower
90s. Airmass remains very humid with dew points in the mid and
upper 70s, producing heat index values between 100 to 105 outside
of rain areas.

&&

Short term...

Upper low will continue to move westward across the Gulf of Mexico
over the next 48 hours. Atypical for marine convection to persist
all day in July, but it has continued, primarily over the Lake
Charles and Houston land/marine areas. Have noted falling
pressures during the day locally, and will need to keep an eye on
things over the Gulf.

Airmass will remain extremely moist with precipitable water
values between 2.1 and 2.3 inches at New Orleans. With convective
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, this will allow the
development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms. This will be
primarily during the late morning and afternoon hours for much of
the land portion of the County Warning Area on Tuesday and Wednesday. Marine areas
will be somewhat more favored for convection overnight. Highest
rain chances will be across southern portions of the
area...slightly lower across southwest Mississippi. Precipitable
water values drop slightly on Thursday, so there might be a little
less areal coverage of convection.

As noted, convective temperatures are expected to be in the mid
to upper 80s Tuesday and Wednesday, so most areas should not get
past 90 for highs both days. Could see readings a degree or two
higher on Thursday with slightly less convection. Overnight lows
should remain in the mid to upper 70s through the period. 35

&&

Long term...

Local area remains in the weakness between the Bermuda ridge and
The Four Corners ridge. Airmass will be slightly drier than early
in the week and will go with slightly lower rain chances and
slightly higher temperatures over the weekend. Still not much
higher than lower 90s for highs, but with the humidity, we aren't
going to be able to tell much difference. 35

&&

Aviation...

Convection scattered across the forecast area this afternoon will
have the potential to affect any of the taf sites until around
sunset. However, any restrictions to visibility or ceilings as a
result of the convection is expected to rather brief. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected again on Tuesday,
primarily from late morning through the afternoon. Otherwise, VFR
category conditions will generally prevail at the terminals through
the taf forecast period outside any areas of convection. 11

&&

Marine...

A weak area of low pressure off of the southeast/south central
Louisiana coast and an inverted trough extending across the coastal
waters along with a weakness aloft will result in enhanced shower
and thunderstorm coverage over the marine area over the next couple
of days. The trough will cause winds to increase to 15 knots mainly
over the open Gulf waters Tuesday and east of the river Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Gusty winds may accompany any of the
thunderstorms. Thereafter, mainly light south to southeast
flow will prevail along with scattered convection.

11

Have noted falling
pressures during the day locally, and will need to keep an eye on
things over the Gulf.




refreshing breeze behind front
drier humidity down too 37 percent here
with a dew point of 56f
gonna be refreshing after sunset
with winds 20 gusting too 40 kmh at times diminishing too 20 kmh after midnight
temps will remain high with a low of 68 to 70 in my area
but low humidity and dew points will be refreshing for a bit


dry heat wave

146. Tcwx2
What is your pressure? My unofficial pressure is 1009mb and has been dropping throughout the day.
Quoting 144. Patrap:

Have noted falling
pressures during the day locally, and will need to keep an eye on
things over the Gulf.





000
FZNT24 KNHC 252047
OFFNT4

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
447 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016


.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
GULF THROUGH TUE NIGHT. HIGH PRES RIDGING OVER THE ATLC WILL BUILD
WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TUE NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. A
TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH
EVENING WITH LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS.

$$

There goes 18z GFS spitting out storms again, lol! Nice try GFS.
My pressure on the barometer here is 29.89 and falling.

Altogether shout it now
There's no one
Who can doubt it now
So let's tell the world about it now
Happy days are here again

153. JRRP7
18z GFS is not looking bad... I know the GFS will change next run
Quoting 149. Climate175:

There goes 18z GFS spitting out storms again, lol! Nice try GFS.


why is it developing 2 TS to develop over the next 16 days that farfetched?
Quoting 139. StillAtHome:



I'm not sure what happened. It kept saying I was signed in but I couldn't comment and I had no buttons either. So I made a new account and waited my 24hrs. Then Baha said everyone had problems and I should try again, and my old account worked for about a day. Then went back to doing the same thing. So I figured I better quit while I'm ahead and just use this one. :)


You did try signing out and back in right? That worked for me.
lol.Nice try GFS but we've been down this road before.....I meant to add this to my last comment
Ryan Maue %u200F@RyanMaue 3h3 hours ago
NASA GEOS-5 model does not have tropical development in 10-day forecast. One negative is Saharan dust layer
159. SLU
Quoting 153. JRRP7:

18z GFS is not looking bad... I know the GFS will change next run


The NHC may start sharpening their yellow crayons soon which some degree of agreement with the models





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUL 25 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Frank, located a few hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Hurricane Georgette,
located about 1200 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula.

1. An area of low pressure could form in a few days roughly 1000 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Some development of this system is possible by late this
week while the disturbance moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

The GOM system is a low pressure center at the surface now.
Quoting 133. hydrus:

Hard to fathom 1 billion years, never mind nearly 14 billion...They have good evidence on the age of the Universe..
Cosmic microwave background radiation.....Link


Trust me, hydrus. It goes by faster than you think.
Note the building inflow as those bands are re_firing in the gulf.



Slightly off topic (sorry in advance) but did hurricanes2018 fly off the earth?
Quoting 162. Grothar:



Trust me, hydrus. It goes by faster than you think.
I believe you..It is exponential..Unless you are travelling at lightspeed, where you do not age, and might be able to cruise a decent part of the Universe in 56 years , and come back here only to find out our solar system aged 5 billion years while you were gone...The Sun would be a red giant, absorbing the inner planets. If we want to survive as a race, we will have to become space travelers..Which we are..We move at over 65,000 mph around the Sun, Solar System is whipped around the milky Way Galaxy at an amazing 497,096 miles per Hour. we are all space travelers..:)

giggity giggity

Quoting 165. Patrap:

Note the building inflow as those bands are re_firing in the gulf.




Quoting 166. Tornado6042008X:

Slightly off topic (sorry in advance) but did hurricanes2018 fly off the earth?



yes he did he landded on MARS
Quoting 166. Tornado6042008X:

Slightly off topic (sorry in advance) but did hurricanes2018 fly off the earth?
I was also wondering where he is, I have not seen his posts since like last Fall.
Quoting 165. Patrap:

Note the building inflow as those bands are re_firing in the gulf.




Visible>Hmmm. Has Grothar called it a blob yet?
Quoting 165. Patrap:

Note the building inflow as those bands are re_firing in the gulf.




If the broad circulation stays over the gulf, it will be something to pay close attention to.
Quoting 172. hydrus:

If the broad circulation stays over the gulf, it will be something to pay close attention to.


That is the key, stay offshore low.
Federal Aviation Administration
Location: 27.195N 90.027W

Date: Mon, 25 Jul 2016 23:35:00 UTC
Winds: 5.1 kt gusting to 19.0 kt
Air Temperature: 78.8 F
Dew Point: 75.2 F
Visibility: 7.0 nmi

Water temp is almost 87 degrees there..
175. SLU
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 10h10 hours ago
ECMWF is predicting a trade surge to last more than 2 weeks over the central Pacific. Will act to boost Nina state.
I think some people (perhaps conveniently) are ignoring 1998-2001. Those years were highly inactive at first, with the first hurricane not occurring in 2001 until September! I mean yeah you had a few tropical storms here and there, but nothing of quality actually occurred until around the fourth week of August or later. Overcoming cognitive dissonance is hard, but trust me. It's definitely possible. ;)
Quoting 175. SLU:

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 10h10 hours ago
ECMWF is predicting a trade surge to last more than 2 weeks over the central Pacific. Will act to boost Nina state.


And slow down the abundant slew of cyclones there.
178. SLU
The globe is cooling :)

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Quoting 139. StillAtHome:



I'm not sure what happened. It kept saying I was signed in but I couldn't comment and I had no buttons either. So I made a new account and waited my 24hrs. Then Baha said everyone had problems and I should try again, and my old account worked for about a day. Then went back to doing the same thing. So I figured I better quit while I'm ahead and just use this one. :)
Hello. Wondered if that was you, AtHome.
You're not alone with the sign-in troubles. Others and I had same problems. Signing in worked but wu was addressing me as the first part of my email address not as my handle. The dropdown menu did not work, I had no blog or photos, wumail received but did not send. First William emailed back that my problem was fixed. Then emailed again saying there was a larger problem with site servers. Now sign-in works fine for me (knock wood) but a day or three went by after I reported the trouble before I could sign in properly.

For you, and anyone else having difficulty, if you want, you might go ahead and email help@wunderground.com from the email related to the AtHomeinTexas handle, or other handle having trouble. An actual person, usually "William" but not a bot, will answer you by email and fix it for you - eventually.

Of course it's up to you or anyone else what you want to do.
Quoting 171. Barefootontherocks:

Visible>Hmmm. Has Grothar called it a blob yet?


It's a splat, not a blob :)
181. SLU
Quoting 176. KoritheMan:

I think some people (perhaps conveniently) are ignoring 1998-2001. Those years were highly inactive at first, with the first hurricane not occurring in 2001 until September! I mean yeah you had a few tropical storms here and there, but nothing of quality actually occurred until around the fourth week of August or later. Overcoming cognitive dissonance is hard, but trust me. It's definitely possible. ;)


Many of them are probably young kids who were not born yet
Quoting 176. KoritheMan:

I think some people (perhaps conveniently) are ignoring 1998-2001. Those years were highly inactive, with the first hurricane not occurring in 2001 until September! I mean yeah you had a few tropical storms here and there, but nothing of quality actually occurred until around the fourth week of August or later. Overcoming cognitive dissonance is hard, but trust me. It's definitely possible. ;)
Hello Kori...Climate change is affecting how and when these TC form..Some suggest that there will be fewer TC , but they will be more intense...Would not surprise me, Wilma and Mitch are to me the harbinger storms, and a possible sign of things to come. Even if we switch to the more inactive phase, we may be in for some large and extremely dangerous hurricanes...jmo
Quoting 176. KoritheMan:

I think some people (perhaps conveniently) are ignoring 1998-2001. Those years were highly inactive at first, with the first hurricane not occurring in 2001 until September! I mean yeah you had a few tropical storms here and there, but nothing of quality actually occurred until around the fourth week of August or later. Overcoming cognitive dissonance is hard, but trust me. It's definitely possible. ;)
We better consider ourselves lucky. We've seen 4.1.0 already, that's very good when it comes to July. Now it's just the waiting game now. August got some juicy storms and I know it. But in the mean time, let's have some tea and cookies. :)
Quoting 178. SLU:

The globe is cooling :)

Image and video hosting by TinyPic



YAWN
Quoting 180. Grothar:



It's a splat, not a blob :)


I had no idea you are now a splatologist. Congrats Gro!
Quoting 165. Patrap:

Note the building inflow as those bands are re_firing in the gulf.

Thank you Pat for all the information as I have kept the news off lately when my grandson is here. Way to much evil for a six year to see.
Quoting 181. SLU:



Many of them are probably young kids who were not born yet


A lot of them WERE born then. That's why it's laughable; they're more than aware of it. They're either trolls or some of the greatest examples of willful ignorance I've ever beheld.
On rgb, I keep seeing evidence of a low level circulation @ 138w, 10n, about where Iniki started. Professional feedback/attention welcome here.
Quoting 182. hydrus:

Hello Kori...Climate change is affecting how and when these TC form..Some suggest that there will be fewer TC , but they will be more intense...Would not surprise me, Wilma and Mitch are to me the harbinger storms, and a possible sign of things to come. Even if we switch to the more inactive phase, we may be in for some large and extremely dangerous hurricanes...jmo


There's more evidence than not to suggest that somebody's gonna get hurt somewhere in 2016. This isn't going to be an all bark and no bite year, imo.
radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map? station=LIX&brand=wui&num=30&delay=5&type=NCR&fram e=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=1&showstorms=10&mapx=400 &mapy=240¢erx=400¢ery=240&transx=0&transy= 0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=1&lightning=Hide& smooth=1&rand=24491461&lat=29.95751953&lon=-90.076 85852&label=New+Orleans%2C+LA" style="max-width: 501px; width: 500px; ">
pressure south of Tallahassee 29.86 and falling.
Quoting 189. KoritheMan:



There's more evidence than not to suggest that somebody's gonna get hurt somewhere in 2016. This isn't going to be an all bark and no bite year, imo.
i agree...I went with 15/9/5..If my memory serves me correct.
Quoting 166. Tornado6042008X:

Slightly off topic (sorry in advance) but did hurricanes2018 fly off the earth?
no I seen him on you tube sayin and showing a 35,000 dollar winning lottery scratch ticket a while back 4 or 5 weeks ago he seems not too post here any longer for reasons unknown
Quoting 190. TropicalAnalystwx13:




"There's more evidence than not to suggest that somebody's gonna get hurt somewhere in 2016. This isn't going to be an all bark and no bite year, imo."

...Like that.
Quoting 180. Grothar:



It's a splat, not a blob :)


It's a feilindikator.

I would pay attention to the GOM.
looks like a little splat racing up the western yuc
as forecasted
spins everywhere
but nothing but some rains from time too time

Solar Impulse completes around the world flight.



Quoting 167. hydrus:

I believe you..It is exponential..Unless you are travelling at lightspeed, where you do not age, and might be able to cruise a decent part of the Universe in 56 years , and come back here only to find out our solar system aged 5 billion years while you were gone...The Sun would be a red giant, absorbing the inner planets. If we want to survive as a race, we will have to become space travelers..Which we are..We move at over 65,000 mph around the Sun, Solar System is whipped around the milky Way Galaxy at an amazing 497,096 miles per second. we are all space travelers..:)

Hummm, that figure of 487,096mi/sec might be a little off. The speed of light in a vacuum is only 186,000mi/sec (give or take).
Water temps are ridiculous..

NDBC
Location: 25.897N 89.668W
Date: Mon, 25 Jul 2016 23:50:00 UTC
Winds: WSW (250°) at 13.6 kt gusting to 15.5 kt
Significant Wave Height: 3.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 5 sec
Average Wave Period: 4.1 sec
Mean Wave Direction: SW (226°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.96 in and falling
Air Temperature: 80.6 F
Dew Point: 73.6 F
Water Temperature: 86.0 F

NOS
Location: 29.265N 89.958W
Date: Tue, 26 Jul 2016 00:30:00 UTC
Winds: SW (220°) at 4.1 kt gusting to 7.0 kt
Air Temperature: 84.6 F
Water Temperature: 89.8 F
Quoting 190. TropicalAnalystwx13:




WOW, shear levels are off the charts!
Quoting 167. hydrus:

I believe you..It is exponential..Unless you are travelling at lightspeed, where you do not age, and might be able to cruise a decent part of the Universe in 56 years , and come back here only to find out our solar system aged 5 billion years while you were gone...The Sun would be a red giant, absorbing the inner planets. If we want to survive as a race, we will have to become space travelers..Which we are..We move at over 65,000 mph around the Sun, Solar System is whipped around the milky Way Galaxy at an amazing 497,096 miles per second. we are all space travelers..:)


Technically you would age travelling at speeds near that of light, or even at the speed of light. In comparison to someone watching you travel from earth, you would indeed age slower. And if you stop somewhere and return, you're throwing that aging off again.

Quoting 194. KoritheMan:



"There's more evidence than not to suggest that somebody's gonna get hurt somewhere in 2016. This isn't going to be an all bark and no bite year, imo."

...Like that.


Hopefully you've jinxed us.
Quoting 198. ACSeattle:


Hummm, that figure of 487,096mi/sec might be a little off. The speed of light in a vacuum is only 186,000mi/sec (give or take).
I meant per hour..My bad..Please forgive..I have to rush on this key board to participate,,it aint easy...:) 487,096mi/sec is really fast tho...
Quoting 198. ACSeattle:


Hummm, that figure of 487,096mi/sec might be a little off. The speed of light in a vacuum is only 186,000mi/sec (give or take).









No wonder I'm dizzy. I thought my medication was off.






Quoting 203. Grothar:



No wonder I'm dizzy. I thought my medication was off.



Greetings Gro..Didnt catch that in time, but corrected...Speeds in space have been much faster than the speed of light...specially in the beginning.
High temp here today was 98.3F, Indian Hills PWS 99.3 and KRAL was 103
....to boldly blog where no one has blogged before.


vorticity of GOM low is up, but shear is also high

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level low is centered over the east Gulf near 27N85W
extending its trough to over southeast Louisiana. At the surface,
a 1015 mb low is centered near 29N90W with surface trough
extending from the low to 27N84W. These features are generating
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the basin
north of 23N between 84W-96W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to
moderate cyclonic flow mainly north of 27N while a moderate
southerly flow prevails south of 27N. Expect for the surface low
and trough to dissipate within the next 24 hours. A thermal trough
will move off the west coast of the Yucatan peninsula each
evening through midweek.
aka dissipate
208. beell
Quoting 197. Patrap:

Solar Impulse completes around the world flight.






Speaking of flight, Pat. A continuation of the radar "roost rings"conversation the other day.

The Mexican Free-Tailed bat colony near downtown Houston-leaving for dinner at 8PM sharp!



lots of dry to move along yet it will be awhile before anything forms

Quoting 208. beell:



Speaking of flight, Pat. A continuation of the radar "roost rings"conversation the other day.

The Mexican Free-Tailed bat colony near downtown Houston-leaving for dinner at 8PM sharp!






Nat Geo image of them.



Quoting 189. KoritheMan:



There's more evidence than not to suggest that somebody's gonna get hurt somewhere in 2016. This isn't going to be an all bark and no bite year, imo.


I would agree
Quoting 207. Chicklit:


vorticity of GOM low is up, but shear is also high

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level low is centered over the east Gulf near 27N85W
extending its trough to over southeast Louisiana. At the surface,
a 1015 mb low is centered near 29N90W with surface trough
extending from the low to 27N84W. These features are generating
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the basin
north of 23N between 84W-96W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to
moderate cyclonic flow mainly north of 27N while a moderate
southerly flow prevails south of 27N. Expect for the surface low
and trough to dissipate within the next 24 hours. A thermal trough
will move off the west coast of the Yucatan peninsula each
evening through midweek.
aka dissipate



next time just used this wind shear map so every one can see the gulf better


Quoting 200. PancakeState:



WOW, shear levels are off the charts!

GFS shows the the shear level in the Caribbean is normal at this time. East of the Caribbean is below.
Dear forum:

Is it true that the ECMWF is forecasting that a tropical wave will arrive in SE Texas by the first week of August?
The Farmers Almanac says the Gulf Coast from Fl to Tx. has a high potential for a hurricane towards the end of August and the second week in September....he says with a straight face :)
Quoting 215. scott39:

The Farmers Almanac says the Gulf Coast from Fl to Tx. has a high potential for a hurricane towards the end of August and the second week in September....he says with a straight face :)


LOL!

Nice wave train. i think one will do it.
Quoting 215. scott39:

The Farmers Almanac says the Gulf Coast from Fl to Tx. has a high potential for a hurricane towards the end of August and the second week in September....he says with a straight face :)

Lol it does every year it's called the peak of hurricane season
Quoting 201. win1gamegiantsplease:



Technically you would age travelling at speeds near that of light, or even at the speed of light. In comparison to someone watching you travel from earth, you would indeed age slower. And if you stop somewhere and return, you're throwing that aging off again.



Hopefully you've jinxed us.


Relatively speaking. You would in fact continue to age within your own space-time reference frame.
So it would seem Darby wasn't so dry after all. Guess those early ppt reports were too early. That should put an end to the drought Hawaii had been experiencing.
Quoting 207. Chicklit:


vorticity of GOM low is up, but shear is also high

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level low is centered over the east Gulf near 27N85W
extending its trough to over southeast Louisiana. At the surface,
a 1015 mb low is centered near 29N90W with surface trough
extending from the low to 27N84W. These features are generating
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the basin
north of 23N between 84W-96W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to
moderate cyclonic flow mainly north of 27N while a moderate
southerly flow prevails south of 27N. Expect for the surface low
and trough to dissipate within the next 24 hours. A thermal trough
will move off the west coast of the Yucatan peninsula each
evening through midweek.
aka dissipate




Dissipate? I was under the impression it was going to give E/SE Texas and LA an even BIGGER dose of rain Tuesday than Monday. Who's right?
Quoting 220. BayFog:



Relatively speaking. You would in fact continue to age within your own space-time reference frame.
But at a much slower rate compared to what was happening back home. Even satellites have to be adjusted due to there speed. A mere fraction of a second makes there coordinates about worthless and inaccurate...Clock runs relatively slower if it is moving at high velocity...Clock runs relatively faster because of weak gravity.
Had the same problem last week.
Sent email, signed out and back in, problem was solved.
Thumbs up!!!!!!!
Quoting 179. Barefootontherocks:

Hello. Wondered if that was you, AtHome.
You're not alone with the sign-in troubles. Others and I had same problems. Signing in worked but wu was addressing me as the first part of my email address not as my handle. The dropdown menu did not work, I had no blog or photos, wumail received but did not send. First William emailed back that my problem was fixed. Then emailed again saying there was a larger problem with site servers. Now sign-in works fine for me (knock wood) but a day or three went by after I reported the trouble before I could sign in properly.

For you, and anyone else having difficulty, if you want, you might go ahead and email help@wunderground.com from the email related to the AtHomeinTexas handle, or other handle having trouble. An actual person, usually "William" but not a bot, will answer you by email and fix it for you - eventually.

Of course it's up to you or anyone else what you want to do.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM MIRINAE (T201603)
15:00 PM JST July 26 2016
============================
South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Mirinae (1000 hPa) located at 18.5N 112.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
90 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=============
24 HRS: 19.8N 108.8E - 40 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) Gulf Of Tonkin
48 HRS: 21.9N 106.1E - 35 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) Overland Vietnam
72 HRS: 22.9N 105.0E - Tropical Depression Overland Vietnam
Morning all. Super wx over Nassau and Fort Lauderdale yesterday as I was flying in will hopefully be repeated today....

Nassau Doppler

Fort Lauderdale coast

Morning view of Nassau, with the [infamous] BahaMar complex at left
UKMET wakes up in the Atlantic






NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T 36 : 37.0N 56.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.07.2016 36 37.0N 56.7W 1009 32
0000UTC 28.07.2016 48 38.6N 54.4W 1010 31
1200UTC 28.07.2016 60 41.1N 52.1W 1012 30
0000UTC 29.07.2016 72 43.9N 48.9W 1014 25
1200UTC 29.07.2016 84 47.0N 44.6W 1013 25
0000UTC 30.07.2016 96 48.9N 41.2W 1011 24
1200UTC 30.07.2016 108 49.9N 38.9W 1009 25
0000UTC 31.07.2016 120 51.0N 38.0W 1007 27
1200UTC 31.07.2016 132 52.6N 39.7W 1005 30
0000UTC 01.08.2016 144 53.9N 43.4W 1002 31

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T 120 : 13.5N 39.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 31.07.2016 120 13.5N 39.5W 1011 24
1200UTC 31.07.2016 132 14.2N 42.1W 1010 24
0000UTC 01.08.2016 144 15.4N 44.1W 1011 25



GFS detecting Genesis before the UKMET?


Me thinks Mr. Shear and Miss Dusty stole the NHC crayons.
Quoting 228. Autistic2:

Me thinks Mr. Shear and Miss Dusty stole the NHC crayons.


Mr. Shear is currently really sick and won't be stealing crayons for a while.
Good Morning Folks; the global tropics at a glance:


Morning,Wxman.... looks like the tropics are waking up all over .....
:-)
And East to the Central Atlantic and Africa; nice convective complex inland and several days out from splashdown:



Quoting 217. HurricaneAndre:


Nice wave train. i think one will do it.
No shear,but too much dry air.So forget it.
Quoting 231. BahaHurican:

Morning,Waxman.... looks like the tropics are waking up all over .....
:-)
You mean E-Pac?
Quoting 231. BahaHurican:

Morning,Waxman.... looks like the tropics are waking up all over .....
:-)


Good Morning to You and I love your pics. I have never been to the Bahamas but hung out in Ft. Lauderdale alot where I met my Wife. That pic is of you turning up the Coast by Hollywood Beach and looking up towards Port Everglades.
From Mashable, here are a couple of photos from Jerry Ferguson of an awesome cumulonimbus over Phoenix last week with a heavy microburst column falling from it:



And a close-up:



Also covered by Angela Fritz over at the Capital Weather Gang blog.
And the Gulf area:


238. JRRP7

ukm is watching the weak low pressure . there is no convection with the low
6am nhc "The latest scatterometer
pass show that the low is now reflected at the surface with a
pressure of 1011 mb near 12N34W. Even though there is a divergent
environment at the upper levels, the presence of abundant Saharan
dry air and dust seems to hinder convection at the time." atlantic tropics are getting more interesting
Extraordinary!

Quoting 236. Neapolitan:

From Mashable, here are a couple of photos from Jerry Ferguson of an awesome cumulonimbus over Phoenix last week with a heavy microburst column falling from it:



And a close-up:



Also covered by Angela Fritz over at the Capital Weather Gang blog.
Quoting 238. JRRP7:



LLLLLLLL .....zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Quoting 239. islander101010:

ukm is watching the weak low pressure . there is no convection with the low
A low with no convection,big deal.
And not many are going to believe you unless you start working on your grammar and syntax as well as realizing that 85% of all storm activity for the Atlantic is from late August to October......................
To the untrained eye that micro burst over phinex looks more like a very bad mushroom. Glad it is only water and wind!
Quoting 244. IAMUPONYOU:

So far it looks like my forcast i predicted back in May is comming true...if you peeeps remember my other name and i said that sal will be bad and get worse into late august and the season will be kept at bay this year....yet no ever believed me... oh welll 2016 will have maybe 2 or 3 more storms and thats about it ... I did predicted 8 total storms this year back in May

I'd be interested to know what this 'model' will say in six weeks or so. Perhaps about as much as the chance for a July hurricane according to climate.
Quoting 248. cRRKampen:


I'd be interested to know what this 'model' will say in six weeks or so. Perhaps about as much as the chance for a July hurricane according to climate.
Sal has engulfed and taken over most of the atlantic now just like i predicted it would for july and august. And if you look the Sal will get worse comming off africa throughout august and maybe into sept.
i find the whole process of development even these duds fascinating. without step 1 there is no step 2 and so on.
Quoting 235. weathermanwannabe:



Good Morning to You and I love your pics. I have never been to the Bahamas but hung out in Ft. Lauderdale alot where I met my Wife. That pic is of you turning up the Coast by Hollywood Beach and looking up towards Port Everglades.
Thanks.... yes, we were coming in on the south side of the FLL airport when I took that. When the wx is clear, that coast lends itself to some interesting pics.... hope you get to visit The Bahamas one of these days .... preferably not when there is a hurricane around .... lol ....
Quoting 249. IAMUPONYOU:

Sal has engulfed and taken over most of the atlantic now just like i predicted it would for july and august. And if you look the Sal will get worse comming off africa throughout august and maybe into sept.


The rainy season has been very good in the wave belt near the Sahel this year and currently shows no signs of letting up; give it about four weeks and we should have a very healthy wave train flowing off of Africa and fighting back the SAL between 10 and 12N where the waves develop:



Quoting 249. IAMUPONYOU:

Sal has engulfed and taken over most of the atlantic now just like i predicted it would for july and august. And if you look the Sal will get worse comming off africa throughout august and maybe into sept.

Why?
Quoting 252. weathermanwannabe:



The rainy season has been very good in the wave belt near the Sahel this year and currently shows no signs of letting up; give it about four weeks and we should have a very healthy wave train flowing off of Africa and fighting back the SAL between 10 and 12N where the waves develop:





That. Also, not the only region where systems could develop.
Quoting 254. cRRKampen:


That. Also, not the only region where systems could develop.


The real dangerous part of the season will probably come once the waves, even if struggling in the Central Atlantic, get to the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean, not to mention the the waters around Florida, the Bahamas, and in the Gulf, where SAL is not an issue and SSTs are very warm:

Quoting 182. hydrus:

Hello Kori...Climate change is affecting how and when these TC form..Some suggest that there will be fewer TC , but they will be more intense...Would not surprise me, Wilma and Mitch are to me the harbinger storms, and a possible sign of things to come. Even if we switch to the more inactive phase, we may be in for some large and extremely dangerous hurricanes...jmo
Please give it a break with climate change effecting TC formation and strength, no hard facts on TC's being effected by climate change.
Quoting 234. hurricanefishfla:

You mean E-Pac?
No, man, the EPac has BEEN awake ... lol ... but we're seeing potential development or actual storms in all the areas one would generally expect to see them at this time of year .....

Quoting 241. HaoleboySurfEC:

Extraordinary!


Agreed. This is great stuff. Only way we can get that kind of photo out here is by flying, but I'm assuming he was on a mountainside, prolly north of town ....
Quoting 253. cRRKampen:


Why?



cant you guys learn thats a troll you are quoting dont feed the trolls or they wont go a way

you guys need too learn that
Quoting 238. JRRP7:



And ITCZ still down over Guyana .... I gotta say, while that is so far south, we're going to see limited [at best] development in the ATL ....
Quoting 244. IAMUPONYOU:

So far it looks like my forcast i predicted back in May is comming true...if you peeeps remember my other name and i said that sal will be bad and get worse into late august and the season will be kept at bay this year....yet no ever believed me... oh welll 2016 will have maybe 2 or 3 more storms and thats about it ... I did predicted 8 total storms this year back in May
I see you are speaking to us from your alternate reality, where it is already October, and you have seen what has and hasn't developed .... just keep in mind that is YOUR reality. The real world is still only at July 26.
260. IDTH

Quoting 256. NativeSun:

Please give it a break with climate change effecting TC formation and strength, no hard facts on TC's being effected by climate change.
Really, he's only paraphrasing the latest findings ... There have been a couple of studies [there's one, IIRC, by Landsea] which suggest that if there are changes to TC formation as a result of climate change, they will most likely be in the form of fewer, but more powerful TCs ... we haven't seen enough data yet to say whether this forecast will actually pan out, and there's certainly been in the last 10 years quite a lot of activity to suggest we may be seeing a higher number of weaker storms.
Quoting 239. islander101010:

ukm is watching the weak low pressure . there is no convection with the low


No UKMet expects a low to form out in the MDR at 120hrs out

Quoting 244. IAMUPONYOU:

So far it looks like my forcast i predicted back in May is comming true...if you peeeps remember my other name and i said that sal will be bad and get worse into late august and the season will be kept at bay this year....yet no ever believed me... oh welll 2016 will have maybe 2 or 3 more storms and thats about it ... I did predicted 8 total storms this year back in May


Nah not even close mate

Quoting 255. weathermanwannabe:



The real dangerous part of the season will probably come once the waves, even if struggling in the Central Atlantic, get to the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean, not to mention the the waters around Florida, the Bahamas, and in the Gulf, where SAL is not an issue and SSTs are very warm:




Agreed

Quoting 256. NativeSun:

Please give it a break with climate change effecting TC formation and strength, no hard facts on TC's being effected by climate change.


No "hard facts", that depends on your definition of that, but judge by yourselves, some of the research out there points at interactions between global warming and TC activity that's hard to brush off.

IPCC : Climate Change 2007: Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis Contents - Storm Tracks

"A number of recent studies suggest that cyclone activity over both hemispheres has changed over the second half of the 20th century. General features include a poleward shift in storm track location, increased storm intensity, but a decrease in total storm numbers (e.g., Simmonds and Keay, 2000; Gulev et al., 2001; McCabe et al., 2001). In the NH, McCabe et al. (2001) found that there has been a significant decrease in mid-latitude cyclone activity and an increase in high-latitude cyclone frequency, suggesting a poleward shift of the storm track, with storm intensity increasing over the North Pacific and North Atlantic. In particular, Wang et al. (2006a) found that the North Atlantic storm track has shifted about 180 km northward in winter (JFM) during the past half century. The above findings are corroborated by Paciorek et al. (2002), Simmonds and Keay (2002) and Zhang et al. (2004b). (...)"

* IPCC : Climate Change 2007: Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis - Evidence for Changes in Extratropical Storms and Extreme Events - Extratropical Cyclones
* Assessing Impacts of Global Warming on Tropical Cyclone Tracks
* CHANGES IN EXTRA-TROPICAL STORM TRACKS AND CYCLONE ACTIVITY AS DERIVED FROM TWO GLOBAL REANALYSES AND THE CANADIAN CGCM2 PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE CLIMATE
* Tropical cyclones on track to grow more intense as temperatures rise
* In Warming Oceans, Stronger Currents Releasing Heat in Bigger Storms, Study Says
* Aerosols strengthen storm clouds, lead to extreme weather
... And that's just ten minutes or so of Google search (last 3 links from my bookmarks, however). I'm surely missing lots of relevant stuff.
Quoting 255. weathermanwannabe:



The real dangerous part of the season will probably come once the waves, even if struggling in the Central Atlantic, get to the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean, not to mention the the waters around Florida, the Bahamas, and in the Gulf, where SAL is not an issue and SSTs are very warm:


When the ITCZ moves to 10 North or above, that is when the real season will start. The pressures in the MDR are slowly dropping, along with the amount of A.D. in the atmosphere. Come on all you Negative Nancy's, give it a break, the hurricane season is finally starting to wake up, slowly, but right on time for all you Negative Nancy's to disappear.
Quoting 258. Tazmanian:




cant you guys learn thats a troll you are quoting dont feed the trolls or they wont go a way

you guys need too learn that


Yeah

Quoting 259. BahaHurican:

And ITCZ still down over Guyana .... I gotta say, while that is so far south, we're going to see limited [at best] development in the ATL ....
I see you are speaking to us from your alternate reality, where it is already October, and you have seen what has and hasn't developed .... just keep in mind that is YOUR reality. The real world is still only at July 26.


Ok a slight drop S with the ITCZ/Monsoon Trof for a short time does not constitute as being still over Guyana on average it's been closer to Trinidad
I'm sure we will see it rise again in a few days

Different story if it survives west of 50W. I think we will see a couple of Sandy-like blow ups down by Cuba that book it northward. I think we will also see a couple of Bahama storms that keep us nervous as well. Active 90 days ahead.

Quoting 240. islander101010:

6am nhc "The latest scatterometer
pass show that the low is now reflected at the surface with a
pressure of 1011 mb near 12N34W. Even though there is a divergent
environment at the upper levels, the presence of abundant Saharan
dry air and dust seems to hinder convection at the time." atlantic tropics are getting more interesting
Quoting 264. NativeSun:

When the ITCZ moves to 10 North or above, that is when the real season will start. The pressures in the MDR are slowly dropping, along with the amount of A.D. in the atmosphere. Come on all you Negative Nancy's, give it a break, the hurricane season is finally starting to wake up, slowly, but right on time for all you Negative Nancy's to disappear.


It's been at or near 10 north quite a bit over past two months with a few drops to where it is now
I'm sure it will rise to 10N in a few days again and even further N as we get into Aug Sept and Oct
Quoting 266. HaoleboySurfEC:

Different story if it survives west of 50W. I think we will see a couple of Sandy-like blow ups down by Cuba that book it northward. I think we will also see a couple of Bahama storms that keep us nervous as well. Active 90 days ahead.




Yeah kinda nah about the tracks I think set up is a bit different this time more GOM storms rather than Bahamas/ECoast storm tracks
Quoting 261. BahaHurican:

Really, he's only paraphrasing the latest findings ... There have been a couple of studies [there's one, IIRC, by Landsea] which suggest that if there are changes to TC formation as a result of climate change, they will most likely be in the form of fewer, but more powerful TCs ... we haven't seen enough data yet to say whether this forecast will actually pan out, and there's certainly been in the last 10 years quite a lot of activity to suggest we may be seeing a higher number of weaker storms.
That's fine, but he stating as fact, not a hypothesis, or even a theory. Not enough time has passed to make a solid conclusion one way or another. You will need a many more years to pass before we can make a solid conclusion on the effects of climate change on TC's, maybe even centuries.
Hey, Baha. You flew right over my house :)


Quoting 226. BahaHurican:

Morning all. Super wx over Nassau and Fort Lauderdale yesterday as I was flying in will hopefully be repeated today....

Nassau Doppler

Fort Lauderdale coast

Morning view of Nassau, with the [infamous] BahaMar complex at left
10-4. Can't say I disagree, especially early peak. Come September I think the troughs will force them more poleward. Potentially we could both be correct. Could be a big year in your neck of the woods.

Quoting 268. wunderkidcayman:



Yeah kinda nah about the tracks I think set up is a bit different this time more GOM storms rather than Bahamas/ECoast storm tracks
As noted below, the issue of the impact of GW on tropical storms has yet to be answered and will take decades to determine if there are any discernible impacts on frequency and/or strength. What we have seen in recent seasons is a decline in terms of majors in the Atlantic Basin, an increase in very powerful West Pac typhoons, and a few rare Middle Eastern TCs. Have no idea if this is just an anomaly or related to the end of the active phase for the AMO but it only takes one powerful major making landfall on a populated region and this is a very common reality even in a low number year.
Is BahaMar still not open? Wow. I did work for a company last summer that is out some bucks. They have never been paid for some work completed.

Ahhh, the joys of the construction industry. The lawyers are in their glory.

Another scorcher in SC. Triple digits (without heat index) expected again later this week. 98F forecasted today.

Quoting 226. BahaHurican:

Morning all. Super wx over Nassau and Fort Lauderdale yesterday as I was flying in will hopefully be repeated today....

Nassau Doppler

Fort Lauderdale coast

Morning view of Nassau, with the [infamous] BahaMar complex at left
Quoting 265. wunderkidcayman:



Yeah



Ok a slight drop S with the ITCZ/Monsoon Trof for a short time does not constitute as being still over Guyana on average it's been closer to Trinidad
I'm sure we will see it rise again in a few days


I haven't been seeing the Trinidad location in the last 10 days. T&T got rain from passing Twaves, but ITCZ has been hanging out south... saw a really informative graphic over the weekend showing the anomalous precipitation well south of the normal zone.
Quoting 257. BahaHurican:

Agreed. This is great stuff. Only way we can get that kind of photo out here is by flying, but I'm assuming he was on a mountainside, prolly north of town ....

Flying; the photographer was in a helicopter.
Quoting 262. wunderkidcayman:



No UKMet expects a low to form out in the MDR at 120hrs out



Nah not even close mate



Agreed




I am not so much worried about storms making the trek across the Atlantic than the "Home Grown" storms in the GOM. Those are not very predictable in terms of strength and they HAVE to hit somewhere. Not to say an Antilles born storm will make it to the gulf but I don't expect too much coming from that direction. (I also said Ike would never be a gulf storm and was without power for 10 days so what do I know?)
Good morning,

i have just a thought and i am no way an expert on anything just what i have read....being that in the last few years the so called north pole has moved according to the experts...would this effect the way storms are developing?....just a thought...
Now that August is just about here more and more of these recent ENSO runs are trending away from La-Nina and to a warm neutral or even weak El-Nino by next Spring. Good call on my part as guys on here need to understand that There is much more involved in regards to ENSO than just a Cold or Warm sub surface pool. A PDO of this magnitude that we have experienced for all of 2015 and 2016 has caused La-Nina to fade away. Infact Euro along with the CFSv2 are showing a pretty dramatic reversal during August toward Neutral.

BOM


CFSv2


EURO
Quoting 255. weathermanwannabe:



The real dangerous part of the season will probably come once the waves, even if struggling in the Central Atlantic, get to the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean, not to mention the the waters around Florida, the Bahamas, and in the Gulf, where SAL is not an issue and SSTs are very warm:




SST's around FL are the warmest on record. Pretty scary to think about what is to come especially once front begin stalling in this region.
Quoting 255. weathermanwannabe:



The real dangerous part of the season will probably come once the waves, even if struggling in the Central Atlantic, get to the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean, not to mention the the waters around Florida, the Bahamas, and in the Gulf, where SAL is not an issue and SSTs are very warm:




The dust really needs to back off, which I believe it will in a few weeks. But as Dr. Masters discussed the dust is expected to be pretty bad for the next couple weeks.
We should see less thunderstorm development across Florida due to a new batch of dust moving into the area here today.
281. IDTH
Quoting 255. weathermanwannabe:



The real dangerous part of the season will probably come once the waves, even if struggling in the Central Atlantic, get to the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean, not to mention the the waters around Florida, the Bahamas, and in the Gulf, where SAL is not an issue and SSTs are very warm:



Those waters are so warm that it concerns me greatly if a storm was to run up the east coast. The Western Atlantic is so freaking warm that even the coastal shelf waters barely change in temperature compared to the Gulf stream. I know some people are going to say "The Seasons dead, too much dry air" but I'm gonna say this, even by the off chance that the rest of the season only has 3 or 4 more storms like the doubtcasters say, one of them could very well not just bring back memories of some of the worst Hurricanes in history, it could very well be the storm that people say is the worst ever. I say this because shear is below normal across many regions of the Atlantic and I just find it doubtful that not one storm will find a way to tap into those waters.

I expect a rude awakening in the coming months and it's not because I'm a wishcaster or a fearcaster but it's because history is repeating itself right now and I don't want people on this blog to not be ready when the time comes.
Quoting 266. HaoleboySurfEC:

Different story if it survives west of 50W. I think we will see a couple of Sandy-like blow ups down by Cuba that book it northward. I think we will also see a couple of Bahama storms that keep us nervous as well. Active 90 days ahead.


I want to disagree with you about the Bahamas area storms, but unfortunately climatology agrees with you .... :o/

I'm really thinking that if we do see the basin mostly active west of 50W, we can genuinely expect potential strikes similar to 2005 in terms of LOCATION ... i.e. pretty much the entire western boundary of the hurricane-vulnerable coasts of the ATL is in play. This isn't like genuine La nina years, where one can expect a lot of storms impacting the Caribbean and GoM. Anything that gets north of the Antilles is equally likely to go across FL or up the coast to GA, the Carolinas, and even points north. It all depends on where the ridge sets up. A ridge north of the Bahamas and running across FL into the eastern GoM has some serious landfall implications for FL and the Gulf. Additionally, if that High Plains high Cantore was tweeting about gets set up when things get active, that suggests a lot more storms crossing and traveling through the eastern CONUS coastal area. Later in the season, we may indeed see some "low-rider" storms that, like Dean or Felix, impact Central America, or others, like Paloma and Sandy, that cross Cuba and head north.

There are still a lot of variables that would have to come together, but I don't think anybody can feel they are off the hook this season.
Quoting 278. StormTrackerScott:

Now that August is just about here more and more of these recent ENSO runs are trending away from La-Nina and to a warm neutral or even weak El-Nino by next Spring. Good call on my part as guys on here need to understand that There is much more involved in regards to ENSO than just a Cold or Warm sub surface pool. A PDO of this magnitude that we have experienced for all of 2015 and 2016 has caused La-Nina to fade away. Infact Euro along with the CFSv2 are showing a pretty dramatic reversal during August toward Neutral.

BOM


CFSv2


EURO




YAWN
I do not know if anyone has ever done the research (or knows on here) as to how accurate the short-term University of Athens SAL model has been in the past but here is their panel for the end of the month:



"Good call on my part as guys on here need to understand that There is much more involved in regards to ENSO than just a Cold or Warm sub surface pool."

C'mon Scott, check the ego.
About climate change and TC activity : let's imagine for a second that during this season or the next a hurricane intensifies to the point where max wind speed reaches a mad 800 km/h close to the center. One could always say it's an outlier, it may have happened in the past but there were no records back then... etc etc. It's not that hard to discount anything related to climate change, when you really want to. When a few decades from now (or maybe it's actually started last year, who knows) never-seen-before heatwaves start killing scores of people close to the Persian Gulf, in India or in the Middle East, (Climate to inspire exodus from Middle East, North Africa in coming decades), I'm absolutely certain some will still be lecturing the rest of us about the "urban heat island effect", "wrong measurements", how climate change is a hoax from their high latitudes and A/C equipped homes...
Two Middle East locations 54 C this week - and it might be a world record for heat
National Post - July 23, 2016.
Time machine :
Killer Heat Grows Hotter around the World
Scientific American - Aug. 6, 2015.
Geez, isn't the bell ringing loud enough already ? I try to avoid such rants on the blog, but this time I couldn't help it. Sorry.
288. Kyon5

Saharan dust is slowly clearing.
Why are folks saying the GOMand waters off Florida are at 'reccord high' temps, when the anomaly chart shows slightly over average in some places, and even below average near the Keys?



With six days left, up to the 5th hottest July on record in Cleveland (76.8F). Also up to #10 all-time in Detroit (76.7F), #6 in Flint (76.2F), and #17 in Saginaw (73.7F). In upstate New York, Rochester moved to #9 (74.6F). Definitely been a hot one in the Great Lakes. Several other locations are nearing their respective top ten lists as well, but it's not clear if it will be hot enough to make a push much higher. It looks as though temperatures will remain above normal, but the extreme heat has dissipated.
Quoting 258. Tazmanian:




cant you guys learn thats a troll you are quoting dont feed the trolls or they wont go a way

you guys need too learn that

New name, I don't call 'troll' before I'm certain. Elsewise you are right, although some of them do attract my attention and get it - battles picked.

I just plussed NativeSun ;)
Quoting 288. Kyon5:


Saharan dust is slowly clearing.


Not based on this model from Dr. Masters. A new large batch of dust is forecast to come off Africa.
Play the loop.
Link
Quoting 288. Kyon5:


Saharan dust is slowly clearing.


Not based on this model from Dr. Masters. A new large batch of dust is forecast to come off Africa.
Play the loop.
Link
Quoting 287. 999Ai2016:

About climate change and TC activity : let's imagine for a second that during this season or the next a hurricane intensifies to the point where max wind speed reaches a mad 800 km/h close to the center. One could always say it's an outlier, it may have happened in the past but there were no records back then... etc etc. It's not that hard to discount anything related to climate change, when you really want to. When a few decades from now (or maybe it's actually started last year, who knows) never-seen-before heatwaves start killing scores of people close to the Persian Gulf, in India or in the Middle East, (Climate to inspire exodus from Middle East, North Africa in coming decades), I'm absolutely certain some will still be lecturing the rest of us about the "urban heat island effect", "wrong measurements", how climate change is a hoax from their high latitudes and A/C equipped homes...
Two Middle East locations 54 C this week - and it might be a world record for heat
National Post - July 23, 2016.
Time machine :
Killer Heat Grows Hotter around the World
Scientific American - Aug. 6, 2015.
Geez, isn't the bell ringing loud enough already ? I try to avoid such rants on the blog, but this time I couldn't help it. Sorry.

For some (many?) people, their most prized possession, the one thing they absolutely, positively, cannot live without, their "precious", is their ideology, their belief system. For many, AGW is incompatable with their belief system, therefore, AGW simply has to be false.
Quoting 290. ClimateChange:

With six days left, up to the 5th hottest July on record in Cleveland (76.8F). Also up to #10 all-time in Detroit (76.7F), #6 in Flint (76.2F), and #17 in Saginaw (73.7F). In upstate New York, Rochester moved to #9 (74.6F). Definitely been a hot one in the Great Lakes. Several other locations are nearing their respective top ten lists as well, but it's not clear if it will be hot enough to make a push much higher. It looks as though temperatures will remain above normal, but the extreme heat has dissipated.



The three hottest Julys in the DC area were 2010-2012

2011. 84.4
2012 84.0
2010 83.1 (tied with 1993)

July average is 79.8. 2016 so far 82.1 which is about #8 or so. The 8 hottest have all occurred since 1980.



I'am not believing anything until we have a T.D.GFS has been trash with its ensembles all over the place
Hello friends, I have six years following reports of Dr. Jeff masters and I just registered yesterday, that in my country (Dominican Republic) not allowed me an erro's ip due to, but we are here. Now you will have development tropical wave associated with a low pressure?




It appears to ebb while a couple of our waves are trekking westward.

Looks like a huge batch setting up to come off around 8/5, but by that point the waves currently exiting Africa will be thousands of miles westward.

Still think we have mischief west of 50W by 8/1.

Quoting 295. Sfloridacat5:



Not based on this model from Dr. Masters. A new large batch of dust is forecast to come off Africa.
Play the loop.
Link
301. JRRP
Quoting 299. elmer200:

Hello friends, I have six years following reports of Dr. Jeff masters and I just registered yesterday, that in my country (Dominican Republic) not allowed me an erro's ip due to, but we are here. Now you will have development tropical wave associated with a low pressure?






Bien, yo soy de Santo Domingo espero verlo mas seguido por aca :D
Quoting 286. luvtogolf:

"Good call on my part as guys on here need to understand that There is much more involved in regards to ENSO than just a Cold or Warm sub surface pool."

C'mon Scott, check the ego.


Scott is not giving up on his returning El Nino
he need to learn to let go we may get another El Nino maybe two years from now but no more for now


Quoting 288. Kyon5:


Saharan dust is slowly clearing.


yep
303. IDTH
I honestly am looking at this wave and would not be surprised if development get's latched onto again in the future. I do expect once it get's disconnected to the ITCZ to struggle but I would not be surprised by about 60 W or so it becomes an area of investigation.




There is a little more evidence of banding present this morning in the north central GOM. The question is whether there will be any mojo added into this gumbo??? The barometric pressure is a tad lower this morning in my area.
Quoting 299. elmer200:

Hello friends, I have six years following reports of Dr. Jeff masters and I just registered yesterday, that in my country (Dominican Republic) not allowed me an erro's ip due to, but we are here. Now you will have development tropical wave associated with a low pressure?






Well, if 40% of the ensembles develop a TC in the next 120 hours, why does the NHC not mark it as an AOI? NHC seems to be ignoring the Atlantic completely...
The wave has a low pressure with it, let's see if it will do anything.
Quoting 299. elmer200:

Hello friends, I have six years following reports of Dr. Jeff masters and I just registered yesterday, that in my country (Dominican Republic) not allowed me an erro's ip due to, but we are here. Now you will have development tropical wave associated with a low pressure?







Welcome to the blog.
Huge wave over Africa!
Quoting 307. wunderkidcayman:




We're all gonna die! ;)

It's only going to take one of these guys to run up the chute into the Gulf to create a real problem this year. I'm really hoping things stay fishy.
Quoting 256. NativeSun:

Please give it a break with climate change effecting TC formation and strength, no hard facts on TC's being effected by climate change.
There is evidence, and if you do not like my posts, hit ignore dude..The five hottest years on record have all occurred since 1997...Higher ocean temps have and will increase hurricane strength. rising oceans will increase damage when storms hit. Here is a reputable source, if you want more info and data, just Google some....Link
Nice spin on this wave.
316. IDTH


The GFS is showing development in the Caribbean at 384 hours. Picture in Link:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gf s/2016072606/gfs_z850_vort_watl_53.png
Quoting 304. GetReal:




There is a little more evidence of banding present this morning in the north central GOM. The question is whether there will be any mojo added into this gumbo??? The barometric pressure is a tad lower this morning in my area.

The visible and radar presentation look much better today. If it were 500 Miles south/southeast....look out. Web Cams from Emerald coast show the onshore flow well. However, just looks like some gusty showers for Gulf coast.
Interestingly enough, this wave that is just off the West Coast of Africa, is the one GFS was forecasting to come off today/tomorrow, and was developing.
Quoting 308. HurricaneFan:


Well, if 40% of the ensembles develop a TC in the next 120 hours, why does the NHC not mark it as an AOI? NHC seems to be ignoring the Atlantic completely...
NHC seems to be ignoring the Atlantic completely
Because they know dry air and dust are waiting right around the corner for it so no point in wasting time on this one.Perhaps if it would have exited further south it may have had a chance.Out now.cheers
Quoting 309. wunderkidcayman:


Hi Wunderkid ! If this happens you better hold onto your mustache !
Quoting 307. wunderkidcayman:



OMG! It's gonna go right over me!

And, apparently, everyone else.
mid level



upper level



dry air and dust is not as bad as some of you think
Out of all these paths....just one.... might actually pan out this year. Da da dummmm

NWS radar is showing a pronounced spin in the T-storm complex south of Matagorda Bay off the upper Texas coast. This is not dissimilar to how the Alison tropical storms got started. Off and on rain in Houston this morning with cloud flow out of the northeast. Not your normal late July pattern.
Lots of rain offshore over 87-90 degree water.



Highly regarded satellite link of the GOM
Quoting 295. Sfloridacat5:



Not based on this model from Dr. Masters. A new large batch of dust is forecast to come off Africa.
Play the loop.
Link Don't worry the dust will be gone soon enough, or a least weaken enough for TC formation. Good luck with all you low number and impact forecasters, this will be a season you won't soon forget.
Actually, not even countin the past 2 years...

Well now uncle FRANK be came a hurricane after all





Quoting 324. wunderkidcayman:

mid level



upper level



dry air and dust is not as bad as some of you think
Quoting 314. hydrus:

There is evidence, and if you do not like my posts, hit ignore dude..The five hottest years on record have all occurred since 1997...Higher ocean temps have and will increase hurricane strength. rising oceans will increase damage when storms hit. Here is a reputable source, if you want more info and data, just Google some....Link
How can you base your hypothesis on 20 years, that's not even a blink in the eye, for a time frame to make such a wild claim. When the oceans cool again, what will that do to your hypothesis, and that is all these statements are, at this time. All these sources you post are just theories or hypothesis, and no one will know the outcome of these studies, until we are all dead, from old age.

back on the 100+ bandwagon, forecast 101 here. normal(sic) is 95/65, yesterday was 98.3F....
KA-BOOM
337. JRRP
Quoting 332. NativeSun:

How can you base your hypothesis on 20 years, that's not even a blink in the eye, for a time frame to make such a wild claim. When the oceans cool again, what will that do to your hypothesis, and that is all these statements are, at this time. All these sources you post are just theories or hypothesis, and no one will know the outcome of these studies, until we are all dead, from old age.
Since when are scientific facts and confirmed research data a hypothesis.?.before even entering a comment here, you could once in a while post data that shows it is not occurring, or even something we could debate. I know for a fact that all data coming in suggest that the Earth's climate is warming. The sea surface temperature records goes back to 1850 and the last decade is warmest. There is also data that shows it will increase exponentially. Not only is the world getting warmer, its getting warmer faster. Link
Quoting 337. JRRP:


LOL.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 338. hydrus:

Since when are scientific facts and confirmed research data a hypothesis.?.before even entering a comment here, you could once in a while post data that shows it is not occurring, or even something we could debate. I know for a fact that all data coming in suggest that the Earth's climate is warming. The sea surface temperature records goes back to 1850 and the last decade is warmest. There is also data that shows it will increase exponentially. Not only is the world getting warmer, its getting warmer faster. Link

NativeSun is right, 20 years is simply not enough time to make such a claim. Sure, in the short term it will fuel stronger hurricanes but the Earth has natural heating and cooling cycles. Now if it was the past 100 or more years you would have a point, but unfortunately at this time you really don't, 20 years is too short of a time span. Also were you say "There is also data that shows it will increase exponentially. Not only is the world getting warmer" some data may be wrong or skewed, I'm not saying that this data is but we cannot be certain what will happen in the future, there is always a margin of error. As soon as this warming trend ends a new cooling treat might take its place and we will have cooler that average world temperatures.
Quoting 341. Adam2001:


NativeSun is right, 20 years is simply not enough time to make such a claim. Sure, in the short term it will fuel stronger hurricanes but the Earth has natural heating and cooling cycles. Now if it was the past 100 or more years you would have a point, but unfortunately at this time you really don't, 20 years is too short of a time span. Also were you say "There is also data that shows it will increase exponentially. Not only is the world getting warmer" some data may be wrong or skewed, I'm not saying that this data is but we cannot be certain what will happen in the future, there is always a margin of error. As soon as this warming trend ends a new cooling treat might take its place and we will have cooler that average world temperatures.


The greenhouse effect has been know for about 200 years with Fouriers work starting in 1824. Before you make unsubstantiated statements in regards to the "rightness" about global warming, please educate yourself on the history of the science and what we know. A good place to start is the American Institute of Physics' History of Global Warming.
Quoting 341. Adam2001:


NativeSun is right, 20 years is simply not enough time to make such a claim. Sure, in the short term it will fuel stronger hurricanes but the Earth has natural heating and cooling cycles. Now if it was the past 100 or more years you would have a point, but unfortunately at this time you really don't, 20 years is too short of a time span. Also were you say "There is also data that shows it will increase exponentially. Not only is the world getting warmer" some data may be wrong or skewed, I'm not saying that this data is but we cannot be certain what will happen in the future, there is always a margin of error. As soon as this warming trend ends a new cooling treat might take its place and we will have cooler that average world temperatures.
Hello Adam...Look, you and others have a firm opinion on this matter and thats cool.. I have been studying this stuff for a long time, and in my findings, there is data here now which proves the Earth is warming rapidly, and it is not just weather obs that are proving this. The 20 years that keeps coming up is not the whole body of research on the subject, and if I need to, I can still provide enough research without using any of the data from the past 20 years to show whats occurring..
Quoting 338. hydrus:

Since when are scientific facts and confirmed research data a hypothesis.?.before even entering a comment here, you could once in a while post data that shows it is not occurring, or even something we could debate. I know for a fact that all data coming in suggest that the Earth's climate is warming. The sea surface temperature records goes back to 1850 and the last decade is warmest. There is also data that shows it will increase exponentially. Not only is the world getting warmer, its getting warmer faster. Link
Please, I have and I am sure many others on here have had enough of this debate, so I will end it. This website is one of many I visit, and is a good one, but the main view by a few is that climate change is responsible for almost every weather related disaster on this planet, and you cannot base all this info on even 150 years of time. as their are cycles the Earth goes thru, that are 1000's of years, maybe 100,000's years long, so a sample of 150 or so years is not very reveillant. Did you forget a few years ago, a lot of the leading climate change experts, were predicting stronger, and more storms. What happened to that idea, now it's stronger but less storms. The PDO is cooling, though slowly, and the Atlantic is still in a warm AMO phase, and when it starts to cool, this should also have and effect on TC's, and global temps, after all it's the oceans that control the temps, not the atmosphere. The oceans hold 1000 times mor4e heat or cool then the atmosphere, and when the PDO and AMO cool you will see a decrease in the temps and an increase in global ice in the Arctic. Bye.
Quoting 344. NativeSun:

Please, I have and I am sure many others on here have had enough of this debate, so I will end it. This website is one of many I visit, and is a good one, but the main view by a few is that climate change is responsible for almost every weather related disaster on this planet, and you cannot base all this info on even 150 years of time. as their are cycles the Earth goes thru, that are 1000's of years, maybe 100,000's years long, so a sample of 150 or so years is not very reveillant. Did you forget a few years ago, a lot of the leading climate change experts, were predicting stronger, and more storms. What happened to that idea, now it's stronger but less storms. The PDO is cooling, though slowly, and the Atlantic is still in a warm AMO phase, and when it starts to cool, this should also have and effect on TC's, and global temps, after all it's the oceans that control the temps, not the atmosphere. The oceans hold 1000 times mor4e heat or cool then the atmosphere, and when the PDO and AMO cool you will see a decrease in the temps and an increase in global ice in the Arctic. Bye.


No, incorrect. Evidence to support your claims, please. I have yet to see you provide any.
346. vis0

Quoting 204. hydrus:

Greetings Gro..Didnt catch that in time, but corrected...Speeds in space have been much faster than the speed of light...specially in the beginning.
there still there (9let me get ready to be laffed at] as via forms of deep! Resonances" one (a being of light) can move at 4 speeds faster than magnetic light (mag Light?, that is what i call what modern science on Earth calls "light".  The "fastest" theorized by this nut (1970s)  is to fold any universe into thirds so in a weird way during the big HORIZONTAL bang it would be quicker to move physically axcross a universe but since at that time physics did not exists as universe was in its spiritual state then its not possible.
Horizontal big bang??? another of my 1970s theories, not a big bang as drawn today as if from a tiny spot that "explodes" outwardly, but as if a quiet river that slowly oppositely  jostled as to its shortest distance in other words opposite of its length) causing
•◦ GravityBumpsGravityDimples
•◦ G-HillsG-wells
•◦ G-mountainsG-Valleys
•◦ G-plateaus<.G-tuandra (Bought to you by Toyotat)
- -G-magnetic forces repelling-attracting and those are just from a spirit universe (i theorized 128 billion light years ago) to a soul universe (i theorized 60+ billion light years) and the present physical universe ~18-20 B Lght yrs across ...though officially 14-15 BLight yrs....just a re post for historical purposes or as Taz might type Hysterical.porpoises (insert clip of FLIPPER laughing)


QUICK!!!! SOMEONE HEIMLICH vis0, vis0 accidentally swallowed Grothar's meds


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347. vis0

Quoting 332. NativeSun:

How can you base your hypothesis on 20 years, that's not even a blink in the eye, for a time frame to make such a wild claim. When the oceans cool again, what will that do to your hypothesis, and that is all these statements are, at this time. All these sources you post are just theories or hypothesis, and no one will know the outcome of these studies, until we are all dead, from old age.
Easily its called real scientific studies and using KNOWN SCIENCE to predict how something will act in the future. Have you ever seen gravity do you need hundreds of years of falling out a window or from a tree to learn of its affects?.....OUCH!!!...just testing gravity on myself.

Example:
:
Some theorized that coal (due to its chemical composition) would cause certain ailments and not be good for maintaining a healthy environment. This was done MANY decades ago by scientist in the USofA with maybe less than a decade of using coal as an energy source in the USofA.  

How did these scientist know/
Simple they understood how coal works and what happens when its burnt by doing lab experiments (simple example)

The mistake came when instead of trying to invest in another energy source so coal workers can keep their jobs the coal companies found it easier to lie to workers and public to see if they could stretch the amount of time they could make a profit.

If the public as a whole demanded that the company re invest some of their earnings into a cleaner energy source in which coal workers could maintain their jobs by working at these "cleaner energy source" developments (as older workers creating solar panels thus not having to breath the coal dust thus cleaning their lungs so they could enjoy some time with their grand-kids instead of worrying of a disease the coal companies could have had the market on solar thus not skip a beat in earning money. Instead the companies tried the easy way and that led to the highway of lies which have led top officials to make blood money on workers that have hit a dead end.

ANOTHER EXAMPLE::
Same with lead specifically in paint.

When the dangers of lead in paint was presented to congress those doing the presentation were laughed at and told how can they know?
Simple do lab studies on how lead acts in affecting ones health specially brain.  Should we have waited 300-400 years to see how it affected our brains or are lab studies showing action and cause enough.

There is a periodic table it has columns that state certain features of each element.  Hard studying/working people that test these reactions then formulate cause and effects and those cause and affects are observed to see if they occur in real world situations thus warn people of dangers those reactions can lead to or if good explain why its good and thus go towards a direction that best serves humanity.

Why is it that we do not wait and let a few more hundred kids become ill or die eating those candy like detergent plastic pods before we "jump" to the conclusion that it can kill a child?  REAL SCIENCE!

Why do you use a specific gasoline type in your car, motorcycle, boat why not use the first you see at a pump, try the other types over a decade...what it'll damage the engine how do you know if you don't try for a few hundred years?  REAL SCIENCE tells you so.

that's it for know i'm going to cook some burgers in axle grease, hey its grease and till i try it for a few hundred years how do i know  are in deep danger when my natural muffler backfires.

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