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Darby Falling Apart as it Makes Landfall on Hawaii's Big Island

By: Jeff Masters 10:57 PM GMT on July 23, 2016

Tropical Storm Warnings are flying for the Big Island of Hawaii, Maui and Oahu as Tropical Storm Darby dashes itself against the high mountains of the Big Island. Saturday evening satellite loops showed that Darby was becoming misshapen and disorganized as it made landfall on the Big Island, and radar on the Big Island showed a highly asymmetric storm, with all of the heavy rains confined to the southeast side.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS image of Tropical Storm Darby approaching the Big Island of Hawaii at 21:30 UTC (5:30 pm EDT) July 23, 2016. At the time, Darby had top winds of 45 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Darby
On August 8, 2014, Tropical Storm Iselle of 2014 passed directly over the Big Island, and the 13,000-foot high peaks of Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea basically shredded the storm apart. I expect Darby will suffer a similar fate, and will be downgraded to a tropical depression on Sunday. Heavy rains causing flash flooding and mudslides are the main danger from Darby. Widespread rainfall amounts of 3 - 5" will likely affect all of the Hawaiian Islands, with some areas of 5 - 10" on the Big Island. High surf of 15 - 25' that will cause erosion problems on the southeast side of the Big Island are another concern. Strong wind gusts will also be an issue, as the high volcanoes of the Big Island and Hawaii will act to create damaging wind gusts in some areas, even if the sustained winds affecting land are below tropical storm strength. In their 5 pm EDT Saturday Wind Probability Forecast, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center gave Hilo on the Big Island the greatest chance of seeing tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph: 99%. Honolulu had a 39% chance, and Kahului, Maui a 31% chance. I think these wind probabilities are too high, and that no locations in the islands at sea level will see sustained winds of 39+ mph.


Figure 2. Composite radar image of Tropical Storm Darby taken at 6:30 pm EDT (12:30 pm HST) on Saturday, July 23, 2016. Darby's heaviest rains were confined to the southeast side of the storm.


Figure 3. Tracks of all tropical cyclones (tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes) to pass within 100 miles of the Hawaiian Islands, 1949 - 2014. Hurricanes approaching from the east typically fall apart before they reach Hawaii due to the cool waters and dry air that lie to the east of the islands. Only two named storms approaching from the east have hit the islands since 1949, an unnamed 1958 tropical storm and Tropical Storm Iselle of 2014, which hit the Big Island. Hurricanes approaching from the south represent the biggest danger to the islands, due to the warmer waters and more unstable air present to the south. The only two major hurricanes to have affected the islands since 1949, Hurricane Iniki of 1992 and Hurricane Dot of 1959, both came from the south. Image credit: NOAA/CSC.

Direct hits by tropical storms and hurricane are uncommon in Hawaii
It appears likely that Darby, though weakening, will officially be a tropical storm that makes landfall on the Big Island. This would make Darby just the fifth named storm since 1949 to make landfall on a Hawaiian Island. The others:

Tropical Storm Iselle, which made landfall along the southeast shore of Hawaii's Big Island on August 8, 2014 as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Iselle killed one person and did $79 million in damage.

Hurricane Iniki, which hit Kauai as a Category 4 hurricane, killing 6 and causing $1.8 billion in damage (1992 dollars.)

Hurricane Dot, which hit Kauai as a Category 1 hurricane, causing 6 indirect deaths and $6 million in damage (1959 dollars.)

An unnamed 1958 storm that had sustained winds of 50 mph at landfall on the Big Island. The storm killed one person and caused $0.5 million in damage.

Hawaii has seen a lot of activity over the past three years, which may be a harbinger of things to come--see my August 2014 post, Climate Change May Increase the Number of Hawaiian Hurricanes.

The winds at 13,000 feet on Mauna Kea
The weather on top of the highest point in Hawaii, the Big Island's Mauna Kea, elevation 13,796' (4,205 m), will be interesting to follow as Darby makes landfall. Winds have risen steadily today, and several of the six anemometers reported sustained winds in excess of 30 mph on Saturday afternoon. However, beware of the data from the Canada - France - Hawaii Telescope (CFHT). The Mauna Kea webcam page says that those winds are highly exaggerated due to location of the anemometer tower between two large telescope domes. You can see this tower on Google Maps.

Links
Weather on Mauna Kea
Live stream from KHON2 TV in Honolulu
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
2-km resolution WRF model output from the University of Hawaii for Hawaii
Storm surge maps for Oahu
Storm info from Tropical Tidbits
NWS Honolulu

Jeff Masters
beautiful rainbow morning of TS Darby
beautiful rainbow morning of TS Darby
Morning before TS Darby hit the Big Island

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments







Local showers have brought more rain than tropical waves so far. Go figure...
It was hardly a storm in the first place, so not much to really fall apart. This years storms in the EPAC, have not been as strong as usual.
It amazes me that how some mountains can really just tear a system to shreds.
My Favorite Tropical Landfall was Don in 201(4?) it hit South Texas during the drought and the storm's convection looked like it hit a wall at the intercoastal waterway, and that was over flatlands.
Figure 2 is mislabeled. Hawaii does not have daylight savings time; there is only Hawaii Standard Time.

The time zone is UTC-10, so the image was at 1230 pm HST.
Pressures in MDR lowering over time-evidence that the CV season getting ready to begin.


Quoting 3. Methurricanes:

It amazes me that how some mountains can really just tear a system to shreds.
My Favorite Tropical Landfall was Don in 201(4?) it hit South Texas during the drought and the storm's convection looked like it hit a wall at the intercoastal waterway, and that was over flatlands.


Look at Patricia when it made landfall. The storm literally got vaporized when it the mountains. Cat.5 to Nothing in no time.
Quoting 2. NativeSun:

It was hardly a storm in the first place, so not much to really fall apart. This years storms in the EPAC, have not been as strong as usual.

"Hardly a storm"

Quoting 4. RR808:

Figure 2 is mislabeled. Hawaii does not have daylight savings time; there is only Hawaii Standard Time.

The time zone is UTC-10, so the image was at 1230 pm HST.


I was wondering about that. Thanks, I'll fix the image.

Dr. M.
Quoting 2. NativeSun:

It was hardly a storm in the first place, so not much to really fall apart. This years storms in the EPAC, have not been as strong as usual.


Couple of Majors in there, can't have all strong ones.....
I wonder when the "blobs" will be drawn in the Atlantic by the NHC
Quoting 10. Adam2001:

I wonder when the "blobs" will be drawn in the Atlantic by the NHC


Three weeks time.


The itcz is down south, funneling all of the waves into the pacific. These wave produse rain as seen in this picture.
The atlantic mostly dry except by cape verde.

Quoting 6. PancakeState:



Look at Patricia when it made landfall. The storm literally got vaporized when it the mountains. Cat.5 to Nothing in no time.
It was small and undergoing an eyewall regeneration cycle...So it weakened very quick over the mountains...A larger storm does a better job of holding on to its mid level circulation, and better chance to regenerate on the other side of Mexico.
Quoting 11. MahFL:



Three weeks time.

That still seems a long way off, a lot of things can change
Hello All,

Stopped in for a few..its been really hot and humid here in NC for a minute now....I'm guessing it has to do with a lot behind McCrory's anger..Kudos to the NBA..

In Keeping it weather related, the 12z Euro ensembles are hinting at tropical mischief in the GOM in long range..probably something to track in August

Or will it be September..cue the chart..

Enjoy your weekend..

Out..



Quoting 377. phear:

Darby, update. Lots of Blue skies, clouds forming and disappearing and gusty NE wind picked up here on west coastal lee side of Mauna Loa/Mauna Kea 2 hrs ago, similar to strong trade winds.
Storm center almost in Trop depression mode (45mph).
Difficult to find estimated landfall time, looks like next few hours.
Forecast is still for 10in or rain between tonight, tomorrow and sun night., mostly from convective incidents (thunderstorms). We'll see.
Unusual to have direct hit on the island chain. Difficult to assess the potential for big trouble vs minor.
Looks like the wind is down, which IMO would have been the most likely source for unexpected big trouble. I'm sure the big island has seen its share of tropical rainfall, though given this "new regime" of moister air we seem to be in, there may be something unprecedented there. Hope things stay on the low side.
Quoting 16. ncstorm:

Hello All,

Stopped in for a few..its been really hot and humid here in NC for a minute now....I'm guessing it has to do with a lot behind McCrory's anger..Kudos to the NBA..

In Keeping it weather related, the 12z Euro ensembles are hinting at tropical mischief in the GOM in long range..probably something to track in August

Or will it be September..cue the chart..

Enjoy your weekend..

Out..




Hey. Good to see you, even if it is hit and run ... Action could start here as soon as next week and as late as Aug 21, based on what bloggers have been saying ....

And we have the usual suspect who would have us believe that we're only going to have 4-1-0 this season .... lol ....
I'm not in as much of a hurry to dismiss the GFS's purported storm as some others are. this model is well known for dropping storms in the mid-range, which is about where we are now. Additionally, I caution those who have been assuming we would get some huge cat-five monster raking the western Atlantic, as the GFS has also been consistently showing this Twave as developing somewhat then running up the mid-ATL, or developing somewhat less and fizzling out before it gets to the Antilles. Aside from one crazy run, it's been doing this pretty much all along.

I still expect we'll see something close off next week between 15 and 35W .... what happens beyond that is anybody's guess.
Quoting 18. BahaHurican:

Hey. Good to see you, even if it is hit and run ... Action could start here as soon as next week and as late as Aug 21, based on what bloggers have been saying ....

And we have the usual suspect who would have us believe that we're only going to have 4-1-0 this season .... lol ....

I dont think the season will be that slow...we gotta wait and see lol
forecasted global temps 4 pm sunday edt



significant melt entire arctic for the next 45 days or so
Quoting 22. Grothar:


I see one of those tracks is right to Grothar's house. Weaker system=more west.
Quoting 25. unknowncomic:

I see one of those tracks is right to Grothar's house. Weaker system=more west.
Looks like right over mine first .... lol ... and before that at least 2 of our PR bloggers' ....
:o)
Another very stormy day here in the Northeast- 3 out of the past 6 days with widespread damage in the region. Central New England and the North Shore of MA took it hardest today, around 100,000 without power at the worst, and sadly a fatality in VT.

how can i track the CCKW's?
Wow ... check out the spin in the t-storm complex in southern Wisconsin. Headed just south of due west .... bout to cross Lake Michigan and head towards me. Anyone remember "Hurricane Huron" lol ... wishcasting...
CFS trending with a very active peak.
Mauna Loa, storm eater! Hawai'i has had Pele (volcano goddess) and Mauna Loa volcano spare us on the Big Island, again, twice in 2 years.

Just the odds of two direct hits from storms in 2 years is unusual, but the opportunity to witness the effects of tropical storms running into the flank of a 100mile long, 13,700 ft barrier is great for science data.

NOAA gets a failing grade for lack of updates- still showing 4am discussion and 15in rain for hilo
It certainly looks like a "fish" storm




Mauna Loa, storm eater! Hawai'i has had Pele (volcano goddess) and Mauna Loa volcano spare us on the Big Island, again, twice in 2 years.

Just the odds of two direct hits from storms in 2 years is unusual, but the opportunity to witness the effects of tropical storms running into the flank of a 100mile long, 13,700 ft barrier is great for science data.

NOAA gets a failing grade for lack of updates- still showing 4am discussion and 15in rain for hilo
Quoting 16. ncstorm:

Hello All,

Stopped in for a few..its been really hot and humid here in NC for a minute now....I'm guessing it has to do with a lot behind McCrory's anger..Kudos to the NBA..

In Keeping it weather related, the 12z Euro ensembles are hinting at tropical mischief in the GOM in long range..probably something to track in August

Or will it be September..cue the chart..

Enjoy your weekend..

Out..






This heat is brutal. Nothing new for our state, but I can never get used to it. I'll be happy to see McCrory gone from the office this November but we'll see...

One of the largest pre-blobs I have seen in years.

Quoting 2. NativeSun:

It was hardly a storm in the first place, so not much to really fall apart. This years storms in the EPAC, have not been as strong as usual.


We've tied the record for most TCs in July in the eastern Pacific with 7, one of which is currently striking the big island of Hawaii, and is only the 3rd TC to hit the island on record, yet is the 2nd storm in 2 years... This is to be expected with the current superposition of AGW & a very favorable natural background ( PDO), & considering that on average, the environment east-southeast of Hawaii is marginal-slightly unfavorable for TC genesis & intensification, this area is fairly sensitive to even very modest changes in the mean climatic background state. The former of which (AGW), is likely to significantly assist in forcing an increase in the probability of Hawaiian TC threats over the coming decades, esp when coupled with favorable natural forcing.

Wrt asserting that the storms in the eastern Pacific haven't been as strong as usual this year, keep in mind since 1970, the average peak intensity of the first 7 TCs in the NE Pacific basin (excluding the central Pac) is about 73 knots, this year's average thus far is nearly 71 knots. Given that the standard deviation of the 1970-2014 first 7 TCs peak is ~12.5 knots (with slight skew towards higher values), we're right @ the 50th percentile (23rd out of 47 years), not to mention, Georgette is still intensifying. Thus, what we're observing even wrt individual storm intensities is quantifiably "normal" if not, slightly above average. Next time you make bold assertions like this, please provide some evidence to support it...
Late Night Comments LOL
Quoting 29. hurricaneryan87:

Wow ... check out the spin in the t-storm complex in southern Wisconsin. Headed just south of due west .... bout to cross Lake Michigan and head towards me. Anyone remember "Hurricane Huron" lol ... wishcasting...


Maybe when it hits Erie. Check out some of the buoys out there - upper 70s and low 80s!
The 18z GFS ensembles disagree with the operational run on the fate of the tropical wave. I still think a weak spin up is possible due to the CCKW in the area.
Quoting 3. Methurricanes:

It amazes me that how some mountains can really just tear a system to shreds.
My Favorite Tropical Landfall was Don in 201(4?) it hit South Texas during the drought and the storm's convection looked like it hit a wall at the intercoastal waterway, and that was over flatlands.

Don was in 2011
No development on the 0z GFS it appears.
Quoting 44. ProgressivePulse:




Spin starting to tighten up. ULL over the top of it so shear is not an issue. Surface trof right in the same area. Could be something to watch
Quoting 45. TropicalAnalystwx13:

No development on the 0z GFS it appears.


oh well, season over lol
Quoting 47. Hurricanes101:



oh well, season over lol

True that. Bring on winter!!
Quoting 46. Hurricanes101:



low pressure starting to tighten up


Big time lightning off the Jupiter coast tonight, had to come look. Sit and spin, the area has not moved. I wish it would do something, we are dry as a bone.
Quoting 49. ProgressivePulse:



Big time lightning off the Jupiter coast tonight, had to come look. Sit and spin, the area has not moved. I wish it would do something, we are dry as a bone.


It seems like conditions are set up for it. Good SSTs, low wind shear. Needs to pull in some moisture. I am at least curious to see if it does anything.
Quoting 48. TropicalAnalystwx13:


True that. Bring on winter!!


So you think this winter will be warmer than normal for your area?
Quoting 51. Hurricanes101:



So you think this winter will be warmer than normal for your area?


Winter forecasting is always complicated, but if anything I think I'd favor a below-average season for most of the country. The ongoing +PDO coupled with a cool Neutral/very weak La Nina is reminiscent of 2013-14.
Quoting 40. unknowncomic:




See that bright area near Chicago? That's hitting us now. More rain... and the heat wave is temporarily mitigated.

So, far this week, 99.0, 99.9, 103.5, 102.4, down hill from here....
edit: corrected yesterdays temp from 101.7 to 102.4
55. IDTH
Quoting 35. Grothar:

One of the largest pre-blobs I have seen in years.



BlobZilla!
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

Oh well. Still going to keep an eye on the area by the Bahamas tomorrow to see if things change. Goodnight
Quoting 56. Hurricanes101:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

Oh well. Still going to keep an eye on the area by the Bahamas tomorrow to see if things change. Goodnight
This will change soon hopefully. That pouch looks huge and I know that we will see something from it.
Link

May be my final blog update on Darby, but here it is. Interesting storm for sure... and only two years after Iselle!
Quoting 54. PedleyCA:


So, far this week, 99.0, 99.9, 103.5, 101.7, down hill from here....


It's actually cool out here, like light jacket weather at night and in the morning.
Good morning ...
No mention of our neck of the woods
As noted many times the Atlantic and Caribbean are and have been in a quiet and dry period.

They are taking the brunt of the extended drought and heat.
the amount of yrs used to determine averages is only about 45 yrs. since we were in a era of increased activity during those yrs many of what we think is average really isnt.
rain chances going up acc/ to nws melbourne. the ul system is suppose to drag in moisture.
Lived here 41 years.sea water temp off the coast of PORT A. Tx 91 degrees Warmest Ive ever seen.
Good morning.

This is the wave GFS has been developing for days coming out of West Africa and now in this 06z run does this close to the U.S SE coast.



We had very decent showers during the past 36 hours... Some stations recorded over 1". AND I'm happy to see more rain on the latest GFS! We may end july with above average amounts. Nice.

Quoting 32. Grothar:

It certainly looks like a "fish" storm





Kind of looks like a Duck, on it's back.
Quoting 41. Patrap:

Radar loop has updated-no longer valid.
:)

A "roost ring"showing on your radar this morning, Pat. A big flock of something taking wing from the north shore of Lake Ponchartrain.
Hope so, according to there discussion at the NWS in Melbourne only 40% on Monday and the rest of the week only 20% and then dry again. We need rain badly here on the coast.
Quoting 63. islander101010:

rain chances going up acc/ to nws melbourne. the ul system is suppose to drag in moisture.
Quoting 43. MrTornadochase:


Don was in 2011
Was that the one that ran into the "death-ridge"? If so, I remember part of the discussion out of the NHC that day where the forecaster, (or it may have been the guys in the Brownsville TX office) commented that he had never seen a storm evaporate so quickly!
Quoting 70. PensacolaDoug:

Was that the one that ran into the "death-ridge"? If so, I remember part of the discussion out of the NHC that day where the forecaster, (or it may have been the guys in the Brownsville TX office) commented that he had never seen a storm evaporate so quickly!
I remember that one,was in fact a full fledged tropical storm when it made landfall,then all it did was drizzle.
Tropical Storm Don's last forecast discussion.

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DON DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011
400 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2011

THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. DON SHOULD OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH LATER
TODAY AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE
A RAINFALL THREAT.
74. SLU
Georgette is the fourth hurricane to form during the month of July
in the eastern North Pacific basin. This ties a record for the
month of July, last equaled back in 1992.

And not backing up in time. In fact this would be a little earlier than models showed last Thursday.

Quoting 65. Tropicsweatherpr:

Good morning.

This is the wave GFS has been developing for days coming out of West Africa and now in this 06z run does this close to the U.S SE coast.


yes and GFS has a hurricane going into the Carolina's around aug 4-5th............
Ugh 1992 bad year. Iniki and Andrew.


Quoting 74. SLU:

Georgette is the fourth hurricane to form during the month of July
in the eastern North Pacific basin. This ties a record for the
month of July, last equaled back in 1992.
GOOD MORNING, Time to look at the 06z ru-................... ooooohhhhhhh nnnooooooo. :(

Bring it on.
Quoting 77. LargoFl:

yes and GFS has a hurricane going into the Carolina's around aug 4-5th............

Looks kind of like an Arthur 2.0 scenario. Like, really similar to Arthur.
Any one know when Mojo is going to ride the Kelvin Wave?
Crap, could you back it up a couple of days. I'd have to take time off work to surf and my buddy has a beach house in Duck, NC that week. Thanks. Lol.

Quoting 80. NCHurricaneTracker69:


Bring it on.
00z run was actually trying to develop something in kinda the same area on hour 228.
now CMC model takes something into the gulf but much weaker about the same time.
Hot July in the Great Lakes region. Cleveland up to #7 all-time, through 7/23. Should move up the rankings through the end of the month.

10 Hottest Julys in Cleveland

1. 1955 79.1
2. 2012 78.0
3. 1949 77.7
4. 2011 77.6
5. 1921 76.8
6. 1952 76.5
7. 2016 & 1931 76.3
9. 1999, 1935 & 1901 76.2
Quoting 85. LargoFl:

now CMC model takes something into the gulf but much weaker about the same time.


I am not seeing anything in the Gulf on the CMC. Please post
Quoting 83. HaoleboySurfEC:

Crap, could you back it up a couple of days. I'd have to take time off work to surf and my buddy has a beach house in Duck, NC that week. Thanks. Lol.




You know the models will be way off. The chance of there being a storm at that location at that time period are so low. So your plans have a much better chance of working out (if) a storm even forms.
Quoting 87. Hurricanes101:



I am not seeing anything in the Gulf on the CMC. Please post


He's probably talking about this small low trying to form in the GOM.
Quoting 80. NCHurricaneTracker69:


Bring it on.
Bring it off.
91. SLU
Interesting development this AM. The GFS has dropped the early development of the July 27th wave but races it westwards towards the Leewards and then starts to amplify the wave once it gets north of the Caribbean. Both the 06z GFS and the 12z (yesterday) EURO seem to agree that the wave may develop north of the Bahamas by day 10 which makes more sense to me.



Good morning. The thunderstorms last night left 1.6" in my gauge. Lots of lightning, too. I still think that we have had more and heavier rains this year. The 1" + rains have edged out the 1/4" rains that used to be common here.
The temperature went down to 72° but now we're back up to 77°, and another hot day is in the forecast. The dew point is 73° and the humidity is now 94%!
We humans enjoy a very narrow range of temperatures. Just a few degrees hotter and we begin to suffer the effects. Without air-conditioning, many of us wouldn't live as long as we do. (I'm talking about Chicagoland.) It's that crucial. The weather is unpredictable as always, but the net effect is a hotter world, and a wild ride.
Even the Great Lakes are getting in on the act.

Quoting 32. Grothar:

It certainly looks like a "fish" storm







Looks more like a Guppy to me than a salt-water tropical fish.
The anomalies in the northern regions are remarkable.

Will have to turn off all devices for the next few hours.Before I go though I'll post this.I don't think I've seen almost half the caribbean with 120kj+ of energy in it in any year
Not a cause for alarm, however, keep a passing eye on the Gulf over the next 36 hours. Some of the models, especially the mesoscale ones, suggest this mess of showers and storms could organize a little bit as it drifts northwest. High wind shear in that area, so don't expect much.



NAM at 36 hours, probably overdone and even so this is only the 850mb vort signature of a TD at best:

Quoting 46. Hurricanes101:



Spin starting to tighten up. ULL over the top of it so shear is not an issue. Surface trof right in the same area. Could be something to watch



Ahhh look at all that dry air spinning in tho
Quoting 95. Grothar:

The anomalies in the northern regions are remarkable.



Even our swimming pool is near 90°.
Quoting 95. Grothar:

The anomalies in the northern regions are remarkable.


The active part of this season is going to be very interesting.
Quoting 97. MAweatherboy1:

Not a cause for alarm, however, keep a passing eye on the Gulf over the next 36 hours. Some of the models, especially the mesoscale ones, suggest this mess of showers and storms could organize a little bit as it drifts northwest. High wind shear in that area, so don't expect much.



NAM at 36 hours, probably overdone and even so this is only the 850mb vort signature of a TD at best:




Yeah, I noticed that when I was fishing though the models this morning.
CMC takes a weak low into the middle Gulf Coast on Tuesday.
102. beell
Quoting 101. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, I noticed that when I was fishing though the models this morning.
CMC takes a weak low into the middle Gulf Coast on Tuesday.



Most of this is probably due to the development of an upper level inverted trough over the the gulf that will track along the southern underbelly of the upper ridge across the CONUS. Increased rain chances east of the axis. I hope it makes it to SE TX in some form or fashion. I don't think this is a threat, but this time of year, will always watch anything-even upper level-spinning to the left!

http://m.topix.com/city/gulfport-ms/2016/07/expert- stronger-thunderstorms-a-bad-sign-for-hurricane-se ason-on-gulf-coast
Quoting 94. VermontStorms:



Looks more like a Guppy to me than a salt-water tropical fish.


I made a mistake when I posted this. I should have captured the image, but instead I just posted the link location. Last night it looked just like a fish. I don't think I've ever seen a guppy storm thought. lol
105. beell
Quoting 104. Grothar:



I made a mistake when I posted this. I should have captured the image, but instead I just posted the link location. Last night it looked just like a fish. I don't think I've ever seen a guppy storm thought. lol


I have been wondering how many days you could keep this going...
:-)


So true. Hence the lol. Like racing cars. Aim your car where the other car is currently spinning out and by the time you get there, it will be somewhere else.


Quoting 88. Sfloridacat5:



You know the models will be way off. The chance of there being a storm at that location at that time period are so low. So your plans have a much better chance of working out (if) a storm even forms.

Quoting 81. NCHurricaneTracker69:


Looks kind of like an Arthur 2.0 scenario. Like, really similar to Arthur.
yes at last something to watch out for and see what happens,still a long ways off time wise.
yes 1st week of August might get interesting,storm wise...............................
We'd had a lot of big boomers lately over S.W. Florida. Most of them just inland from the coast. Today we should see more of the same. We have some dry air mixing in, but that will give us plenty of sunshine to really get the sea breeze going late this afternoon.
Lots of clear skies now with big boomers just off the S.E coast and out in the GOM.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
940 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Looking at the situation for today, an upper level low is
currently positioning itself over the CWA, currently near Palm
Beach county. This mornings sounding showing the 500mb temps have
dropped to -8.7C and the freezing level is down to 14.4k ft. PWATs
are up to over 2 inches once again, and the water vapor imagery is
showing some drier air aloft moving into the area. Although the
sounding is fairly moist, the cooler air aloft, and any dry air
intrusion aloft, may allow for some small to moderate sized hail
to develop. The sounding is showing surface based CAPE at already
2345 J/kg this morning, and the modification of the sounding
shows that CAPE could be over 3600 J/kg. Also, after modifying
this mornings sounding to expected afternoon conditions, the NCAPe
(normalized CAPE) is coming in at .3. This would indicate some
strong vertical velocities with the thunderstorms this afternoon.
This would also support some hail development. Another concern is
the slow movement of the showers and storms this afternoon. With
the low over the area, and storm movement nearly stationary, urban
street flooding may once again be possible. Shear is still fairly
weak, but waterspouts will still be possible with any convective
cells over all South Florida waters through the day.

Looking at the HRRR, it has a modest handle on the situation this
morning, with cells over the coastal waters. It does show the
convection should hold off over the mainland until early this
afternoon. So, have lowered PoPs over the interior areas for this
morning, but kept likely this afternoon.
Hopefully we can get some of that rain to rotate up the East Coast. Inland Lee and Collier Counties on the S.W. coast have been getting the majority of the rainfall. (17-19" in some areas over the past 30 days)
Quoting 111. Grothar:


Is it raining there, Gro?
Quoting 99. ChiThom:


Even our swimming pool is near 90°.
maybe we should worry about a Hurricane on Lake Michigan with those Lake Temps.
Quoting 116. Methurricanes:

maybe we should worry about a Hurricane on Lake Michigan with those Lake Temps.


Warm, but we've had warmer at this point. Getting there though.

Quoting 68. beell:



Good eyes beell as those are nesting Purple Martin's that roost under the Causeway bridge there. They look like a black sinister cloud when they go to feeding en masse.
Still not counting out the Cape Verde wave for development in the East Atlantic. GFS has dropped storms before they form before. ECMWF not showing anything but storms have formed without model support.
Jelly-Fish storms!

Special Statement
Issued: 10:12 AM CDT Jul. 24, 2016 – National Weather Service

... A line of strong thunderstorms will affect northeastern Orleans...
southeastern St. Tammany parishes in southeastern Louisiana and
southern Hancock counties...

At 1012 am CDT... radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Waveland to 11 miles southeast of
Pearlington. Movement was west at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and funnel clouds are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Bay St. Louis... Waveland... Pearlington... Lake Catherine and Shoreline
Park.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms... and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify... so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Lat... Lon 3025 8942 3023 8942 3018 8946 3019 8946



Feels almost like the hours before a Tropical storm impact here with the clouds streaming in from the south.

More like late August in a way.
Quoting 119. HurricaneFan:

Still not counting out the Cape Verde wave for development in the East Atlantic. GFS has dropped storms before they form before. ECMWF not showing anything but storms have formed without model support.
It is now having that very nice spin over West Africa while it's moving westward, keep watching.
125. vis0

killing 3 birds with 1 stone::

I.

TODAYs sideboard::

 

Bucket-o-ice

shaved ice

Post-Impressionism styled ice cubes

refrozen melted ice cubes

spoons, forks, knives made of ice

iced coffee (w/o the coffee)

Belgian ice cream served in an ice cone

 

 

all served in the AM when its just a cool 90F.(88-90Frange as to 5 n NYC readings)


 
II.

 

 

someone needs to draw (If not already drawn) a mama polar bear with 2 cubs INSIDE (broken into) coca-cola vending machine with the coke strewn all over the North Pole (some in the near by ocean)

III.
Quoting 93. Grothar: (click to see Q93 in a new tab)

Even the Great Lakes are getting in on the act.


[made up zilly] Grothar did you not here that Taz has proclammed the Great lakes as the Great Saunas. [made up zilly]

oh BTW no need for the stone the heat got to the birds ...(not dead, they left last seen heading north towards the north pole, the new tempered climate area.
Quoting 115. BahaHurican:

Is it raining there, Gro?


Drizzle, but the sky is getting darker.
127. vis0

Quoting 123. Patrap:

Feels almost like the hours before a Tropical storm impact here with the clouds streaming in from the south.

More like late August in a way.
Check out the "grin" forming off South Florida (moving KIND-g SSW over western keys), it might not spin (yet) but sure looks like its trying. My worry is for lots of rain to be accentuated by this type of quasi-spin.
129. beell
Quoting 118. Patrap:



Good eyes beell as those are nesting Purple Martin's that roost under the Causeway bridge there. They look like a black sinister cloud when they go to feeding en masse.


Appreciate the verification, Pat. There are a few seasonal roosts detected by radar (different species/different months) around here. that I have verified via a field trip and/or from local literature. Always makes for an interesting sunrise. I'll add this one to my list!

Words of wisdom: Stay away from the Grackle roosts. I do believe they have bombsights...
Quoting 127. vis0:


Check out the "grin" forming off South Florida (moving KIND-g SSW over western keys), it might not spin (yet) but sure looks like its trying. My worry is for lots of rain to be accentuated by this type of quasi-spin.

I thought it was more of a beard ....
Quoting 126. Grothar:



Drizzle, but the sky is getting darker.
:o(
Hope that's over by tomorrow ... surface forecast isn't showing anything, but the rain / inclement wx does NOT need to stick around ....
Quoting 117. Slamguitar:



Warm, but we've had warmer at this point. Getting there though.


I wonder if in the next 25 years or so, the Great Lakes will become rather than a stabilizing influence on the atmosphere (like the North Atlantic's sea breeze kills Tstroms) and become a destabilizing agent (like the GOM) due to rising temperatures during the summer.
Quoting 83. HaoleboySurfEC:

Crap, could you back it up a couple of days. I'd have to take time off work to surf and my buddy has a beach house in Duck, NC that week. Thanks. Lol.




I'll probably be at the OBX by then too. Could make it 2/3 in the last three years going there.
138. SLU
The GFS is rapidly becoming the laughing stock of world meteorology

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 5h5 hours ago
This is what I was afraid of- GFS not handling African easterly waves correctly. Completely squashed 2nd wave. No TC
Quoting 138. SLU:

The GFS is rapidly becoming the laughing stock of world meteorology

Michael Ventrice %u200F@MJVentrice 5h5 hours ago
This is what I was afraid of- GFS not handling African easterly waves correctly. Completely squashed 2nd wave. No TC



Yup laughing stock, after it has nailed each of the 1st 4 storms this year. Get real

Also funny how no one mentions the system the Euro was consistently developing off the Mid Atlantic that never even came close to occurring.


*Hic*
Quoting 137. nrtiwlnvragn:

ULL moving west across South Florida today.




The song for this is "Keep on moving; don't stop, no...."
Link
Quoting 138. SLU:

The GFS is rapidly becoming the laughing stock of world meteorology.
Only to those who haven't yet learned Rule #1:

Quoting 140. Hurricanes101:



Yup laughing stock, after it has nailed each of the 1st 4 storms this year. Get real

Also funny how no one mentions the system the Euro was consistently developing off the Mid Atlantic that never even came close to occurring.

There is always Erika from last year that both GFS and Euro missed. Factors in the atmosphere change constantly what you see now might change in 12 hours. Look for trends.
Now-casting already in process.
Quoting 144. sporteguy03:


There is always Erika from last year that both GFS and Euro missed. Factors in the atmosphere change constantly what you see now might change in 12 hours. Look for trends.


yup, models are not gospel. They are just guides. They are interesting to look at for trends.
147. SLU
Quoting 140. Hurricanes101:



Yup laughing stock, after it has nailed each of the 1st 4 storms this year. Get real

Also funny how no one mentions the system the Euro was consistently developing off the Mid Atlantic that never even came close to occurring.


It's pretty obvious who's boss. Even the CMC has outperformed the GFS at times.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
GFS = Generally False Storms
Quoting 147. SLU:



It's pretty obvious who's boss. Even the CMC has outperformed the GFS at times.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic


In terms of track maybe, but not the genesis of storms themselves.
Quoting 148. victoria780:

GFS = Generally False Storms


GFS does not spit out very many ghost storms anymore. It used to be much worse. It nailed Bonnie, Colin and Danielle in the long range. The Euro cannot say that
151. IDTH
Quoting 80. NCHurricaneTracker69:


Bring it on.

Hahahaha! That'd be interesting if that actually panned out, anything's possible though with the way the GFS nailed all 4 storms so far.
152. Tcwx2
Just what I was thinking.
Quoting 81. NCHurricaneTracker69:


Looks kind of like an Arthur 2.0 scenario. Like, really similar to Arthur.
Quoting 138. SLU:

The GFS is rapidly becoming the laughing stock of world meteorology

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 5h5 hours ago
This is what I was afraid of- GFS not handling African easterly waves correctly. Completely squashed 2nd wave. No TC



This is annoying. 12z GFS and GEFS are... less interesting.
Quoting 141. PancakeState:



*Hic*


EPac stop stop stop!
155. SLU
Quoting 149. Hurricanes101:



In terms of track maybe, but not the genesis of storms themselves.


Well what happens with the GFS is that it spawns copious numbers of ghost storms and false alarms especially in the deep tropics where surface observations fed into the model are less dense. The Euro hardly ever does that. It does miss a lot of storms in the early days but once it latches on to a system, the game's over. Overall the GFS creates many more false alarms than the EURO misses a future TC.

The NHC also has so much respect for the EURO that they would modify a storm track to suit the EURO even if it were an outlier from a single run.
Might as well forget about all models and go back to old school forecasting.
Quoting 153. CaribBoy:



This is annoying. 12z GFS and GEFS are... less interesting.
157. beell
Quoting 138. SLU:

The GFS is rapidly becoming the laughing stock of world meteorology

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 5h5 hours ago
This is what I was afraid of- GFS not handling African easterly waves correctly. Completely squashed 2nd wave. No TC



Just for giggles, which one do you think MV thinks is the "first wave"?
Quoting 139. Patrap:



Looks like the surface center is headed straight for Honolulu now.
Thus far, Darby looks to be one of the driest tropical storms I've ever seen. The highest storm total looks to be Hilo, and most of that was the 1.43 inches yesterday as a single downpour dumped on them. Most all other stations seem to be under 1 inch, some only showing hundredths.
Chicago suburbs...Now it's 91° F and the dew point 79° and yes the heat index is 105° and another thunderstorm is possible at 4:30 p.m. Humidity is high and evaporation is poor. Headbands and T-shirts are soaked with sweat.
Quoting 159. BayFog:

Thus far, Darby looks to be one of the driest tropical storms I've ever seen. The highest storm total looks to be Hilo, and most of that was the 1.43 inches yesterday as a single downpour dumped on them. Most all other stations seem to be under 1 inch, some only showing hundredths.

We beat them with 1.6" last night. "In a single downpour" (edited for clarity)


*cough cough*
Quoting 155. SLU:



Well what happens with the GFS is that it spawns copious numbers of ghost storms and false alarms especially in the deep tropics where surface observations fed into the model are less dense. The Euro hardly ever does that. It does miss a lot of storms in the early days but once it latches on to a system, the game's over. Overall the GFS creates many more false alarms than the EURO misses a future TC.

The NHC also has so much respect for the EURO that they would modify a storm track to suit the EURO even if it were an outlier from a single run.


The CMC used to be trigger-happy spawning cyclones, but a couple of years ago they put in a fix. Now it hardly predicts any until there is a strong closed circulation already observed.
Certainly hope no one was in any of these -



Shocking footage shows cars being sucked into massive pothole vortex during floods

Link
165. JRRP7
Quoting 162. Hurricanes101:



*cough cough*

lol
looks like a oh lot of nothing all the way too mid AUGS may be has we head in too lat AUG


bring on winter storm tracking thats more fun then the heat we been haveing am ready for fall and cooler and wetter weather
Quoting 151. IDTH:


Hahahaha! That'd be interesting if that actually panned out, anything's possible though with the way the GFS nailed all 4 storms so far.


The last E storm that got close to us was...Earl...[Link]
168. beell


Monsoon trough extending west from the coast of Africa to near 40W.
Are we allowed to hand out crow to the people who predicted what this hurricane season might be like if it does not pan out?
Quoting 168. beell:



Monsoon trough extending west from the coast of Africa to near 40W.
Also note the ITCZ still dead ends over Guyana ....
171. JRRP7
Quoting 169. hurricanewatcher61:

Are we allowed to hand out crow to the people who predicted what this hurricane season might be like if it does not pan out?


sure we can drop a 500 pond cow on too every one house
Quoting 67. NativeSun:

Kind of looks like a Duck, on it's back.
I thought we had previously agreed that we would post tropical fish pictures on Tuesdays.
174. beell
Quoting 169. hurricanewatcher61:

Are we allowed to hand out crow to the people who predicted what this hurricane season might be like if it does not pan out?


No. Next question.
The wave to watch is the to exit the African coast in two days. chances of development will be slow because of the dry and dusty environment ahead of it. once this system survives the central Atlantic journey and gets to about 50W then watch out for development. Models want to take the track north of the Lesser Antilles but i will wait until there is a organised centre. The system is still over Africa ,about 3000 miles from the islands.
Quoting 175. stoormfury:

The wave to watch is the to exit the African coast in two days. chances of development will be slow because of the dry and dusty environment ahead of it. once this system survives the central Atlantic journey and gets to about 50W then watch out for development. Models want to take the track north of the Lesser Antilles but i will wait until there is a organised centre. The system is still over Africa ,about 3000 miles from the islands.


nothing will happen all the way too mid AUG it seem the GFS has drop it
177. Tcwx2
Looks like an Atlatic system with all of the dry air.
Quoting 139. Patrap:


A little twist to the clouds out in the Gulf of Mexico. Also a very large broad circulation over southern Florida.
2 more days till off the coast.
That's a little to much. I guess will see what happens down the road. Still some time to go with season, anything is possible.
Quoting 174. beell:



No. Next question.
Quoting 172. Tazmanian:



sure we can drop a 500 pond cow on too every one house
Pouch 08L has nice spin with latest SAT pics.
Quoting 178. Sfloridacat5:

A little twist to the clouds out in the Gulf of Mexico. Also a very large broad circulation over southern Florida.

So far still seems in the upper level ...
183. beell
Quoting 170. BahaHurican:

Also note the ITCZ still dead ends over Guyana ....



And just for grins...
The big difference is the northern/eastern extent of the african end of the trough.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N23W TO 09N30W TO 08N40W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N40W TO 05N51W TO 08N56W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 16W AND 21W...AND FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 23W AND 33W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 21N16W and continues along 15N22W through a weak 1012 mb low near 13N26W to 8N40W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 8N51W to South America near 7N58W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is inland and within 30 nm along the coast of Africa from 13N-15N. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are within 75 nm along the coast of Africa from 8N-13N, within 150 nm of line from 10N23W to 5N36W, and within 120 nm along the coast of South America south of 9N west of 55W.


Quoting 169. hurricanewatcher61:

Are we allowed to hand out crow to the people who predicted what this hurricane season might be like if it does not pan out?


As long as it comes with a good dipping sauce.
185. Tcwx2

GFS tries to spin up something like Danielle in the BOC.
Folks this season is far from dead, waves will begin to be even more vigorous and even though the GFS dropped this one, it did nail the first 4 storms even better than the EURO in fact. Don't worry we'll get something. I am putting my numbers at 15-8-4, anyone else want to give me their pitch?
Georgette is tying to be a major hurricane, i guess:





Hurricane GEORGETTE
As of 18:00 UTC Jul 24, 2016:

Location: 15.4°N 125.1°W
Maximum Winds: 90 kt Gusts: 110 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 972 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1009 mb
Radius of Circulation: 160 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 20 NM
Eye Diameter: N/A
Zoom in on the small area of circulation in the GOM. Hey, its slim pickings in the Atlantic Basin. Even a naked swirl would be exciting at this point.
Quoting 186. pablosyn:

Georgette is tying to be a major hurricane, i guess:





Hurricane GEORGETTE
As of 18:00 UTC Jul 24, 2016:

Location: 15.4°N 125.1°W
Maximum Winds: 90 kt Gusts: 110 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 972 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1009 mb
Radius of Circulation: 160 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 20 NM
Eye Diameter: N/A
There's still a lot of energy out there for Georgette to play with.
189. SLU
At 1800 UTC, 24 July 2016, HURRICANE GEORGETTE (EP08) was located in the Northeast Pacific basin at 15.4°N and 125.1°W. The current intensity was 90 kt and the center was moving at 9 kt at a bearing of 300 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb.
Quoting 185. Tcwx2:


GFS tries to spin up something like Danielle in the BOC.
Folks this season is far from dead, waves will begin to be even more vigorous and even though the GFS dropped this one, it did nail the first 4 storms even better than the EURO in fact. Don't worry we'll get something. I am putting my numbers at 15-8-4, anyone else want to give me their pitch?


Most of us did our pre-season predictions and turned them in by June 1. Mine was 15-7-2 (if I remember correctly). So your guess is almost the same as my mine.
191. beell
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

...CENTRAL/SRN FL...
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES WWD ACROSS THE SRN PENINSULA...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN PARTS OF THE STATE. RELATIVELY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ENHANCING LAPSE RATES WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEE MCD 1385 FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.


(click image for discussion)


A line of storms starting to move through the Tampa area. Just north of Tampa looks like a pretty strong storm.
Subtropical cyclone in the mediterranean sea, and may develop tropical characteristics. WE GOT 02M HERE (not officially, by me)
Quoting 191. beell:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

...CENTRAL/SRN FL...
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES WWD ACROSS THE SRN PENINSULA...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN PARTS OF THE STATE. RELATIVELY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ENHANCING LAPSE RATES WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEE MCD 1385 FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.


(click image for discussion)





"If" we could get that ULL to sit in the eastern GOM for long enough it could work its way down to the surface. But with the dry air to the north, that's not all that likely. But I've seen it happen with ULL's near the Bahamas and GOM in the past.
Busted ... book'em Dano


Quoting 135. Patrap:


196. beell
Quoting 194. Sfloridacat5:



"If" we could get that ULL to sit in the eastern GOM for long enough it could work its way down to the surface. But with the dry air to the north, that's not all that likely. But I've seen it happen with ULL's near the Bahamas and GOM in the past.


I'll settle for an enhanced chance of rain in SE TX. Got lucky and grabbed an inch last week with the previous upper disturbance moving along the bottom of the ridge-but that's been it over the last 4 weeks here-with mid/upper 90's everyday.
GFS is forecasting another strong and robust wave to exit the african coast around the 31st and takes towards the southern antilles around 5th of august.
199. IDTH
Quoting 198. Gearsts:



uhm, wut?
Dry Thunder!! My invention. Sunny Day then, Boom!!!
Quoting 195. docrod:

Busted ... book'em Dano





If I didn't know any better, I'd say Darby is either dead or a TD now.
The only known photo of a real fish storm.

Quoting 203. Grothar:

The only known photo of a real fish storm.




fish fish fish fish fish fish fish
Quoting 198. Gearsts:



Looks like the E Pac is finally going to shut down in the coming weeks allowing the Atlantic to have its turn.
Just because its beautiful. Thunderstorm at 37,000 feet over the Pacific Ocean
Thank you to IJustLikeRecords

long range gfs noticed a low rider in the carib. dont be surprised the model changes a bit and bring this north into hispanola. seen this a bunch.
208. beell
Quoting 197. stoormfury:

GFS is forecasting another strong and robust wave to exit the african coast around the 31st and takes towards the southern antilles around 5th of august.


That would be a pretty zippy trip. In excess of 20 knots.
Quoting 205. MrTornadochase:


Looks like the E Pac is finally going to shut down in the coming weeks allowing the Atlantic to have its turn.



dont be too sure on that the GFS is not showing march of any thing in the Atlantic
210. Tcwx2
Cool. I don't remember my pre-season numbers, or even if I did one.
Quoting 190. Sfloridacat5:



Most of us did our pre-season predictions and turned them in by June 1. Mine was 15-7-2 (if I remember correctly). So your guess is almost the same as my mine.
Quoting 210. Tcwx2:

Cool. I don't remember my pre-season numbers, or even if I did one.
Check Max's blog.
Quoting 198. Gearsts:



Darby angered the Hawaiian gods.
214. beell
Quoting 212. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Darby angered the Hawaiian gods.


Yeah, but it's easterly shear-so it don't count.
;-/
Quoting 209. Tazmanian:




dont be too sure on that the GFS is not showing march of any thing in the Atlantic


I think we will see local action before Cape Verde action..
Frank is...losing it?


Or maybe not.
220. Tcwx2
I checked and I didn't do one. Thanks for telling me.
Quoting 211. BahaHurican:

Check Max's blog.
Quoting 212. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Darby angered the Hawaiian gods.
Probably Pele, goddess of the volcanoes.
hmmmm


AL, 50, 2016072418, , BEST, 0, 91N, 12W, 15, 1010, DB
Quoting 213. Skyepony:




Gotta be major soon
Quoting 202. 62901IL:



If I didn't know any better, I'd say Darby is either dead or a TD now.


Kilauea was getting wet, and Mauna Loa was having none of it.
Quoting 223. Tazmanian:

hmmmm


AL, 50, 2016072418, , BEST, 0, 91N, 12W, 15, 1010, DB

Is that real, a test, or a bug?
I see the GFS continues with the dead Atlantic theme and a very active east pacific.Same old same old.cheers.
Or Primo, god of cheap beer and atrocious hangovers.


Quoting 222. Barefootontherocks:

Probably Pele, goddess of the volcanoes.
Quoting 227. HurricaneFan:


Is that real, a test, or a bug?


real or a test not sure we have seen a few so far this season so it could be a area the NHC is tracking
231. Tcwx2
Was is that? I can't open it.
Quoting 223. Tazmanian:

hmmmm


AL, 50, 2016072418, , BEST, 0, 91N, 12W, 15, 1010, DB
Quoting 203. Grothar:

The only known photo of a real fish storm.



Looks annular...except for that one fish on the east side. That Taz?
Quoting 231. Tcwx2:

Was is that? I can't open it.


Is this in the atlantic
Quoting 198. Gearsts:



Yet, i got called out for doing anything to violate the blog rules yesterday. What I'm trying to say is there's something evidently wrong with the GFS. How can it spit out tropical cyclone after tropical cyclone in the EPAC, when it forecasts WELL above average wind shear in the vicinity. Something i don't get. Does the GFS tend to have a high shear bias??? Anyways, i sincerely apologize to ALL chat room members for my behavior yesterday, even though i don't think I was being rude. I sincerely apologize to Washingtonian115 as well. Have a good evening everyone , and could you please answer my question???
Quoting 231. Tcwx2:

Was is that? I can't open it.


i can open it this find on the

this open the bal50 file

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/
236. beell

Current RAP 300 mb heights, winds, divergence


Current RAP 500 mb heights, temps, winds


Vis Loop 1630-2230Z

(click any graphic for larger image)

237. Tcwx2
Thanks, but I still don't know what that is, a little over my head.
Quoting 235. Tazmanian:



i can open it this find on the

this open the bal50 file

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/
Quoting 218. 62901IL:

Frank is...losing it?


Or maybe not.



Frank will becomes the 5th hurricane in July over E. Pacific, will break 1992's record.
Quoting 237. Tcwx2:

Thanks, but I still don't know what that is, a little over my head.



you will learn this ask the other blogers here
Quoting 237. Tcwx2:

Thanks, but I still don't know what that is, a little over my head.


Its a area of interst but maybe the NHC is gonna bring out yellow for something
241. Tcwx2
Oh cool, thanks.
Quoting 240. James1981cane:



Its a area of interst but maybe the NHC is gonna bring out yellow for something
Georgette has become a beautiful hurricane this evening.

243. IDTH
244. beell
Quoting 234. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Yet, i got called out for doing anything to violate the blog rules yesterday. What I'm trying to say is there's something evidently wrong with the GFS. How can it spit out tropical cyclone after tropical cyclone in the EPAC, when it forecasts WELL above average wind shear in the vicinity. Something i don't get. Does the GFS tend to have a high shear bias??? Anyways, i sincerely apologize to ALL chat room members for my behavior yesterday, even though i don't think I was being rude. I sincerely apologize to Washingtonian115 as well. Have a good evening everyone , and could you please answer my question???


Probably should check the date on that one-it is a current run at hr 384. Then go back and look at some older model runs. Be sure to cancel out upper outflow from real or imagined storms. Then carefully consider "WELL above average wind shear".
Anybody else think we'll see H in the EPac before this time next week? If so, and if Frank also becomes a hurricane, we will see 2 July records broken on that side ....
It's the CFSv2, so take it for what it's worth, but the model shows numerous tropical cyclones tracking across the Atlantic beginning in early August. The GEFS continues to show average to below average shear and MSLP across the tropical Atlantic over the next 2 weeks. Just more signs that while it's quiet now, it won't forever be.
247. JRRP7
Quoting 228. washingtonian115:

I see the GFS continues with the dead Atlantic theme and a very active east pacific.Same old same old.cheers.

I hope the GFS is wrong with pacific developments LOL
Maybe I'm wrong, but the "wave train" doesn't look overly impressive to me right now, nor has it all season. I see a lot of convection over Africa, but nothing with even a hint of organization/consolidation, and that's generally been the theme this year. The GFS has clearly demonstrated that it has no idea what it's doing in that region right now. Most signs to me continue to point towards another quiet week or two in our basin.

Static image. Click for current IR enhanced water vapor loop.

Water vapor image credit: NOAA, CIRA etc
Quoting 248. MAweatherboy1:

Maybe I'm wrong, but the "wave train" doesn't look overly impressive to me right now, nor has it all season. I see a lot of convection over Africa, but nothing with even a hint of organization/consolidation, and that's generally been the theme this year. The GFS has clearly demonstrated that it has no idea what it's doing in that region right now. Most signs to me continue to point towards another quiet week or two in our basin.




agreed we wont see any named storms in tell may be mid too late AUG at the most
Quoting 248. MAweatherboy1:

Maybe I'm wrong, but the "wave train" doesn't look overly impressive to me right now, nor has it all season. I see a lot of convection over Africa, but nothing with even a hint of organization/consolidation, and that's generally been the theme this year. The GFS has clearly demonstrated that it has no idea what it's doing in that region right now. Most signs to me continue to point towards another quiet week or two in our basin.


Careful what you say on here.
Quoting 246. TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's the CFSv2, so take it for what it's worth, but the model shows numerous tropical cyclones tracking across the Atlantic beginning in early August. The GEFS continues to show average to below average shear and MSLP across the tropical Atlantic over the next 2 weeks. Just more signs that while it's quiet now, it won't forever be.

The common thread there, however, is that those are American models. And I think they're hopelessly confused. The EPS shows near to above normal pressures across the tropics at day 10. Even the Canadian ensembles are closer to that EPS solution that the GEFS one.

If we're going to see anything in the next 8-14 days, it may be off the Southeast US coast, and of non-tropical origins thanks to a more active eastern US pattern.


Looks like what's left of Darby's LLC is crossing Oahu.
Quoting 251. help4u:

Careful what you say on here.

Get over it.
Quoting 223. Tazmanian:

hmmmm


AL, 50, 2016072418, , BEST, 0, 91N, 12W, 15, 1010, DB


????
256. ryang
For some reason 2007 keeps popping into my head. That year Dean didn't form until mid August and Felix didn't form until early September. Not saying we'll get anything close to how strong those two storms were, but the storms will come. People have to be patient.
Quoting 254. BahaHurican:

Get over it.
LOL!Will do sir.
This has to be a hurricane. There's no doubt about it.
That "50L" thing must have been a test:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 242351
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
.
Wondering... Wandering? not me...WVL is just my way of keeping an eye on eastern GOM. Model watching's one thing. Water vapor, well it's real, here and now.

Ps. At the link to the current WVLoop you can click on the RAMMB logo for info and different types of imagery including Himawari.
Quoting 249. Barefootontherocks:

Static image. Click for current IR enhanced water vapor loop.

Water vapor image credit: NOAA, CIRA etc

Quoting 260. HurricaneFan:

That "50L" thing must have been a test:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 242351
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



not necessarily, the NHC don't really make remarks of lows that are overland Africa unless they expect rapid development into a tropical depression is possible as it hits the Eastern Atlantic Ocean.

If the 50L is at 9.1°N 1.2°W (overland Ghana)

Darby seems to be redeveloping deep convection in the northern quadrant and there is a developing band wrapping in from the south. I am on the north-shore of the island of Kaua'i and should be experiencing Darby's landfall through the early hours of tomorrow morning.
I have this funny feeling Kaua'i may end up getting the worst of this storm. It's always us.
I guess indications of a "spin" got someone interested in playing around.....






Georgette 115kt?
Quoting 266. nrtiwlnvragn:

I guess indications of a "spin" got someone interested in playing around.....







Well, how about that,
HEY EVERYBODY I'm new on this blog,i'm from martinique, french island in the lesser antilles,i've experienced some hurricanes in my life like allen,david and the last one dean in 2007 that why i'm so interested in tracking storms in the atlantic and that why hurricane season is my favorite time of year, i have learned so much on that blog with you guys,thank you so much. please excuse my gramatical faults english is not my first language.
Quoting 269. david1979:

HEY EVERYBODY I'm new on this blog,i'm from martinique, french island in the lesser antilles,i've experienced some hurricanes in my life like allen,david and the last one dean in 2007 that why i'm so interested in tracking storms in the atlantic and that why hurricane season is my favorite time of year, i have learned so much on that blog with you guys,thank you so much. please excuse my gramatical faults english is not my first language.



well your going too be waiting a long long time has we may not be tracking any thing in tell mid too lat AUG the way thing been going so pull up a chair and take a # and wait in line like the rest of us thats how long you have too wait its all that dry sinking air out there so where not going too see any thing out there any time soon



SHIPS will intensify anything?

AL 50 2016072418 DSHP 0 91N 11W 15
AL 50 2016072418 DSHP 12 91N 26W 23
AL 50 2016072418 DSHP 24 90N 56W 25
AL 50 2016072418 DSHP 36 90N 92W 26
AL 50 2016072418 DSHP 48 92N 133W 30
AL 50 2016072418 DSHP 60 95N 175W 33
AL 50 2016072418 DSHP 72 96N 218W 39
AL 50 2016072418 DSHP 84 92N 258W 43
AL 50 2016072418 DSHP 96 89N 298W 49
AL 50 2016072418 DSHP 108 85N 340W 58
AL 50 2016072418 DSHP 120 83N 378W 63
Quoting 264. HadesGodWyvern:



not necessarily, the NHC don't really make remarks of lows that are overland Africa unless they expect rapid development into a tropical depression is possible as it hits the Eastern Atlantic Ocean.

If the 50L is at 9.1°N 1.2°W (overland Ghana)


9.1N 12W. Should be off the coast of Africa in the next few days
Georgette continues to rapidly intensify and may skip Category 3 status altogether. SAB is at T6.0/115kt, while UW-CIMSS ADT is playing catch-up at T5.5/102kt (although Raw T# is up to T6.1).

TXPZ27 KNES 250030
TCSENP

A. 08E (GEORGETTE)

B. 25/0000Z

C. 16.1N

D. 125.8W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T6.0/6.0/D2.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...PINHOLE WMG EYE IS EMBEDDED IN LG AND SURROUNDED BY B
RESULTING IN A DT OF 6.0 AFTER 1.0 IS ADDED AS AN EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET
IS 5.0 BASED ON RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. PT IS 5.5. FT
IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK
Quoting 263. Barefootontherocks:

Wondering... Wandering? not me...WVL is just my way of keeping an eye on eastern GOM. Model watching's one thing. Water vapor, well it's real, here and now.

Ps. At the link to the current WVLoop you can click on the RAMMB logo for info and different types of imagery including Himawari.



That WV image you posted bothers me. Will it be just a little bit of rain for SE Texas, or a significant, violent and dangerous flooding event similar to the April 18 Houston Floods? Will severe WWs be needed? What does the forum think?
Quoting 274. Hurricanes101:



9.1N 12W. Should be off the coast of Africa in the next few days

Actually, it is 1.2W.
Quoting 260. HurricaneFan:

That "50L" thing must have been a test:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 242351
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

If it hasn't got a 9 first, it's not being run on an ATL storm.
Quoting 269. david1979:

HEY EVERYBODY I'm new on this blog,i'm from martinique, french island in the lesser antilles,i've experienced some hurricanes in my life like allen,david and the last one dean in 2007 that why i'm so interested in tracking storms in the atlantic and that why hurricane season is my favorite time of year, i have learned so much on that blog with you guys,thank you so much. please excuse my gramatical faults english is not my first language.
Bienvenue ... welcome to the blog. There are a few francophones on the blog, but since we mostly speak English, we welcome your comments. Besides, even English speakers here aren't that perfect writers. ...

Here's hoping we get a season with some excitement but not catastrophic damage. You've been through some of the legendary ones at their worst, which is more than a lot of us can say.
HEY TAZ I HAVE ALWAYS APPRECIATED YOUR COMMENTS BUT I THINK THAT WE WONT WAIT TO LONG TO SEE OUR FIRST STORM IN THE MDR!
Quoting 270. Gearsts:


This clearly indicates the southerly displacement of the ITCZ .... all that yellow stripe between Africa and S. America is where the ITCZ usually is, while the aquamarine south of it is the area where the ITCZ is, raining abnormally ....
Quoting 274. Hurricanes101:



9.1N 1.2W. Should be off the coast of Africa in the next few days
By Wednesday.
That's when the party - or the wake - starts....
You know, if the Wednesday Twave doesn't make it to at least TD .... there will be a collective groan from the WunderBlog so loud that it will reverberate around the world .... lol
Quoting 278. Bobbyweather:


Actually, it is 1.2W.

Is this "50L" the same TW that GFS previously was developing into a TS?
Quoting 280. david1979:

HEY TAZ I HAVE ALWAYS APPRECIATED YOUR COMMENTS BUT I THINK THAT WE WONT WAIT TO LONG TO SEE OUR FIRST STORM IN THE MDR!


there no need too yell and uesd the cap lock you may this has well call your self a troll has trolls like too talk in cap lock most of the time please take your cap lock off
Quoting 269. david1979:

HEY EVERYBODY I'm new on this blog,i'm from martinique, french island in the lesser antilles,i've experienced some hurricanes in my life like allen,david and the last one dean in 2007 that why i'm so interested in tracking storms in the atlantic and that why hurricane season is my favorite time of year, i have learned so much on that blog with you guys,thank you so much. please excuse my gramatical faults english is not my first language.

Welcome to the blog! I hope you enjoy it here. Here we track all kinds of storms but mostly Atlantic ones.
Quoting 284. HurricaneFan:


Is this "50L" the same TW that GFS previously was developing into a TS?
Yes, currently over Ghana.
in the mean time

EP, 08, 2016072500, , BEST, 0, 161N, 1258W, 105, 961, HU


EP, 07, 2016072500, , BEST, 0, 199N, 1128W, 60, 992, TS

no hurricane yet from uncle frank


NAM 4KM at 18z

For my related question, see post #277.

Hazardous weather outlook for SE Texas says they don't even anticipate spotter activation. Dumb!
i want too a track a winter storm please bring on the winter storms


its hot i want a cold snap with low snow levels and 2ft of snow please
hey baha thank you so much for welcoming post, you are one of my favorite member, i apreciate your smart comments and your sense or humour
Quoting 277. pureet1948:



That WV image you posted bothers me. Will it be just a little bit of rain for SE Texas, or a significant, violent and dangerous flooding event similar to the April 18 Houston Floods? Will severe WWs be needed? What does the forum think?
Frankly my dear, I don't... Wait a minute. That's Rhett's line. I'm watching for a tropical spin up. Sorry, pure et. Houston, well, I've seen it from the train - and that's about it.
Quoting 273. nrtiwlnvragn:




SHIPS will intensify anything?

AL 50 2016072418 DSHP 0 91N 11W 15
AL 50 2016072418 DSHP 12 91N 26W 23
AL 50 2016072418 DSHP 24 90N 56W 25
AL 50 2016072418 DSHP 36 90N 92W 26
AL 50 2016072418 DSHP 48 92N 133W 30
AL 50 2016072418 DSHP 60 95N 175W 33
AL 50 2016072418 DSHP 72 96N 218W 39
AL 50 2016072418 DSHP 84 92N 258W 43
AL 50 2016072418 DSHP 96 89N 298W 49
AL 50 2016072418 DSHP 108 85N 340W 58
AL 50 2016072418 DSHP 120 83N 378W 63





What is this thing yall are tracking and what is the SHIPS model developing it into too how do you read the data /
night all i leave you with this snow snow snow snow YAY i wish we had some





Quoting 243. IDTH:




Omg very low shear east of the Lessers in the sweet spot!
Quoting 294. Tazmanian:

night all i leave you with this snow snow snow snow YAY i wish we had some






Yes please!
Quoting 270. Gearsts:




GEFS is completely lost.
So its Not even the middle of Hurricane season and people are talking about winter storms haha 😂
Quoting 298. rockcity340:

So its Not even the middle of Hurricane season and people are talking about winter storms haha 😂


They are starting to snap under the stress of no Atlantic storms....
Flare-up of Darby again.


Quoting 298. rockcity340:

So its Not even the middle of Hurricane season and people are talking about winter storms haha 😂
Happens every year .... people get hot and start dreaming about being cool ... and with the heat this year, I'm sayin'.... "slay belles; ring, areya listening?" might be a song .... lol ...

[I'm not really longing for snow, but I can understand people who are ....]
Quoting 301. Grothar:

Flare-up of Darby again.





Darby's comet
Quoting 299. PedleyCA:



They are starting to snap under the stress of no Atlantic storms....
It may be a while, considering the local media in Rochester, NY is calling an 88 degree day a "cooldown" and a "relief".
Quoting 302. BahaHurican:

Happens every year .... people get hot and start dreaming about being cool ... and with the heat this year, I'm sayin'.... "slay belles; ring, areya listening?" might be a song .... lol ...

[I'm not really longing for snow, but I can understand people who are ....]


It's not just that. People keep dreaming of powerful hurricanes to track and when they do not happen in all 6 months of the hurricane season, apparently it is a bust.
Current mess in the GOM looks a lot like a mirror of Colin, why is it not a TS?
Quoting 305. Hurricanes101:



It's not just that. People keep dreaming of powerful hurricanes to track and when they do not happen in all 6 months of the hurricane season, apparently it is a bust.
I personally prefer Nor'easters and such because they are fun weather events, a Cat 3 or 4 Hurricane is not fun.
Quoting 292. Barefootontherocks:

Frankly my dear, I don't... Wait a minute. That's Rhett's line. I'm watching for a tropical spin up. Sorry, pure et. Houston, well, I've seen it from the train - and that's about it.



Well, that goes without saying Barefootontherocks. PancakeState in #306 has raised a good point. Anyone here feel we might see a TC slam into SE Texas next Tuesday?
Quoting 306. PancakeState:

Current mess in the GOM looks a lot like a mirror of Colin, why is it not a TS?
No LLC.


rooting for the home team
Climatology for storm #5 is a ways away.
Quoting 306. PancakeState:

Current mess in the GOM looks a lot like a mirror of Colin, why is it not a TS?


Yes, why not a TS?
Quoting 277. pureet1948:



That WV image you posted bothers me. Will it be just a little bit of rain for SE Texas, or a significant, violent and dangerous flooding event similar to the April 18 Houston Floods? Will severe WWs be needed? What does the forum think?


I think you are way over reacting again. Just my opinion.
Quoting 311. PedleyCA:

Climatology for storm #5 is a ways away.

What date do they put in for years without 11 storms? Nov. 30th? or do they omit it, because I can't imagine enough 11th storms have formed after Nov 23rd to make it a true average.
Quoting 299. PedleyCA:



They are starting to snap under the stress of no Atlantic storms....
Blog goes through this yearly.
Quoting 309. BahaHurican:

No LLC.


Request definition: LLC.
Quoting 312. pureet1948:



Yes, why not a TS?


see post 309
Quoting 313. Bucsboltsfan:



I think you are way over reacting again. Just my opinion.


But the storms will be slow moving, with weak steering winds, or that's my understanding. This raises concerns about flash flooding, esp. in poor drainage areas. Question: Is this, or is this not, similar to the storm system that produced all the terrible flooding, gusty winds and extremely powerful lightning in the Houston region on April 18, 2016?
Quoting 310. Chicklit:



rooting for the home team


Not me.
Quoting 317. pureet1948:



Request definition: LLC.


low level center
Quoting 320. pureet1948:



Not me.

we could use some good rain in central florida
Maybe the blog can be more like Cariboy..
Quoting 300. Grothar:




Any BOC development wouldn't surprise me now.
Quoting 315. Climate175:

Blog goes through this yearly.

What was the blog like in July 2015, which was supposed to be one of the least active Atlantic seasons on record (although that didn't exactly happen)? Was the downcasting even worse?
Quoting 321. Chicklit:



low level center



Does that lessen the severity for us?
Quoting 325. HurricaneFan:


What was the blog like in July 2015, which was supposed to be one of the least active Atlantic seasons on record (although that didn't exactly happen)? Was the downcasting even worse?
No because a below normal hurricane season was already expected so people already knew what they were getting into.
Quoting 306. PancakeState:

Current mess in the GOM looks a lot like a mirror of Colin, why is it not a TS?
Quoting 312. pureet1948:



Yes, why not a TS?
It does not have a closed low or tropical storm force winds at this time.
Quoting 327. washingtonian115:

No because a below normal hurricane season was already expected so people already knew what they were getting into.


except the fact that we ended up with 12 named storms, not below average. 2015 actually did a decent job of squeezing out as much as it could considering the conditions were unfavorable.
330. IDTH
Quoting 310. Chicklit:



rooting for the home team

Still a shot at development but if there is any, it will definitely be slow to occur as shear while not awful, is still around 20 knots in some spots. The Upper level low feature over the Florida peninsula I find to be interesting especially if it starts to lose that characteristic and becomes of a low level feature by some chance. I don't think that's likely to happen but it looks to be weakening although my eyes are probably deceiving me.
Quoting 317. pureet1948:



Request definition: LLC.

A low level circulation.
332. beell
Divergence aloft over the central gulf. High pressure to the west, a closed upper low over S FL.

333. beell


Quoting 332. beell:

Divergence aloft over the central gulf. High pressure to the west, a closed upper low over S FL.




Means what?
i'am in northeen windward islands and the last two weeks were very rainy,2 or 3 yellow alerts by meteo france for heavy rain, the ground is satureted,and some landslides happened, perhap the fact that the itcz is low for this time of year is the reason why is so rainy here omg
another hot one for lakes region again tomorrow brutal no end in sight

Quoting 334. pureet1948:



Means what?
its gonna rain
Brand new Darby discussion
TROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 54
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052016
500 PM HST SUN JUL 24 2016

Earlier thunderstorms southeast of Darby's centered dissipated
but vigorous thunderstorms just northeast of the center flared up
this afternoon with tops colder than -65C. The morning Hurricane
Hunter mission into Darby continued through mid-day with a maximum
surface wind of 37 kt found over the water east of the center.
Based on the aircraft recon data and the recent burst in deep
convection very close to Oahu and Kauai, Darby has been held at 35
kt for this advisory package. This could be generous,
especially
considering that subjective Dvorak estimates all came in at 30 kt
and that no surface stations on Kauai and Oahu have reported
tropical storm force conditions thus far. Note that this was the
final mission into Darby. A big mahalo to the 53rd Weather
Reconnaissance Squadron for their outstanding support over the past
several days.


Darby is moving at 325/10 kt to the southwest of a lower and
middle-level pressure ridge. The main dynamical objective aids
remain tightly clustered and continue to indicate that Darby will
move northwestward over or near Kauai tonight,
and continue toward
the northwest over the next 2 to 3 days while weakening to a
post-tropical remnant low. The forecast track for this package
remains close to the previous track and the dynamical consensus.

Current marginal sea surface temperatures will cool along the
forecast track and vertical shear, while forecast to be less
persistent than the previous cycle, should remain relatively strong
over the next day or so. As a result, the current forecast calls for
Darby to weaken to a tropical depression overnight, then become a
post-tropical remnant low in 48 hours. This is a faster weakening
than indicated by the intensity consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 21.7N 158.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 22.7N 160.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 23.8N 161.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 25.0N 163.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 26.4N 164.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/0000Z 29.9N 166.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kodama
Throwback to just some of the comments in mid-August 2010, when the yearly 'this season is a bust' comments started coming out. Of course, we know the season ended up being the 3rd busiest on record.

Quoting 18. chilliam:

"it's been a surprisingly quiet August, considering the pre-season predictions of a hyperactive season."

The major forecasters have over-predicted every year since 2005. It's pretty obvious what the problem is. Everyone's models are including the data from the very busy 2005 and giving it far too much weight. The predictions for 2005 were far below what it was ... because their models were based on previous average years. Now the models include the one super busy year, and they all over-predict.

Forecasters still don't know what they're doing. It's all just averages of previous years, and they completely miss the nuances that vary from year to year.
Quoting 23. VAbeachhurricanes:

Wow... RIGHT on average for a regular season... verryyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy interesting... so people predicting an over active season, are the people predicting average seasons still bustcasting??
Quoting 44. bird72:

So, at the end, we don't know what's happening. I think the first week of August, always was quiet, normally I see things heating up the second half of the month. Let's see. If we don't see anything in the second half of August, this end the hurricane season, and we could be before the great prediction blonder of history....
Quoting 54. BadHurricane:

In other words, scientists have no idea what was going on. So typical ... Why pay them at all?

Quoting 247. SAINTHURRIFAN:

Destin jeff did you see anything in Masters blog that he thinks this pattern will change soon? Im just a dumb old MBA major but i did not see him state although this will soon change.On the other note when i came on this morning all everyone was talking about was td 5 taking a loop back into the gulf.Now some one post a month a way model run thats at between 10 and 20 east. lol i thought he said 10 to 20 west that i might could look at.But come on 10 to 20 east? has this season been that disappointing that we are hanging hopes on a model running that far out and away?Not picking or starting a argument but those continued statements is what causes people to call some on here wishcasters they bring it on themselves.In closing the gfs is the same model that predicted this morning td5 to be a hurrricane next week you see what dr masters thought about that.lets let these phantom systems actually show up before we start posting and worrying about something that has not happened.this is not downcasting its present casting and at the present thier is no tropical system in the eastern atlantic.I know alot will disagree with this post just hope it gives some a little something to think about.

Quoting 396. thewindman:

Thanks to Dr. Masters for saying exactly what I've said all summer. This year is SLOW. There is too much dry air and shear and will likely be one of the slowest years on RECORD
Quoting 319. pureet1948:



But the storms will be slow moving, with weak steering winds, or that's my understanding. This raises concerns about flash flooding, esp. in poor drainage areas. Question: Is this, or is this not, similar to the storm system that produced all the terrible flooding, gusty winds and extremely powerful lightning in the Houston region on April 18, 2016?

I highly doubt it'll get as bad as the April 18, 2016 event although you can't completely rule out the possibilit of some localized flooding and as with any storm always stay tuned for any forecast changes or weather alerts issued by NWS and act accordingly.
What is the likelihood of a tropical cyclone making landfall in New Jersey this year? If there is abnormally large chance, when will it most likely happen? Hurricane Sandy was bad but was not even tropical at the time of landfall. I barely got any rain but lots of wind. My neighbor has this huge tree and one of its largest branches nearly fell on my house! A wind gust spared us. That branch was probably about 80 feet long- bigger than some full grown trees! It took up my entire back yard. That is what a post tropical cyclone can do. A tropical cyclone landfall would be worse so that is why i would want to know.
342. beell
The fate of the mid-level vort associated with the closed upper low over Florida-per the GFS. Not the best track for beneficial rains in SE TX-but maybe.



g'nite
343. SLU
Quoting 339. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Throwback to just some of the comments in mid-August 2010, when the yearly 'this season is a bust' comments started coming out. Of course, we know the season ended up being the 3rd busiest on record.






LOL

Quoting 340. MrTornadochase:


I highly doubt it'll get as bad as the April 18, 2016 event although you can't completely rule out the possibilit of some localized flooding and as with any storm always stay tuned for any forecast changes or weather alerts issued by NWS and act accordingly.


Well, SPC doesn't put us in a risk area for severe weather, true. But my biggest concern is the lightning, as that's the thing that caused all the widespread outages. Should I look for very high lightning production?
Quoting 342. beell:

The fate of the mid-level vort associated with the closed upper low over Florida-per the GFS. Not the best track for beneficial rains in SE TX-but maybe.




Not the best track for beneficial rains in SE TX? Why do you say that?
346. SLU
...GEORGETTE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 126.1W
ABOUT 1145 MI...1845 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES
Quoting 336. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

another hot one for lakes region again tomorrow brutal no end in sight



Great Lakes area is forecast to get a brief cool down to near average late this week before heat returns
348. IDTH
Quoting 339. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Throwback to just some of the comments in mid-August 2010, when the yearly 'this season is a bust' comments started coming out. Of course, we know the season ended up being the 3rd busiest on record.





Did you send them crow for them to eat?
Quoting 343. SLU:



LOL



Your image in no way refutes what I said, lol. Maybe I'm misinterpreting what you're getting at?
Quoting 341. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:

What is the likelihood of a tropical cyclone making landfall in New Jersey this year? If there is abnormally large chance, when will it most likely happen? Hurricane Sandy was bad but was not even tropical at the time of landfall. I barely got any rain but lots of wind. My neighbor has this huge tree and one of its largest branches nearly fell on my house! A wind gust spared us. That branch was probably about 80 feet long- bigger than some full grown trees! It took up my entire back yard. That is what a post tropical cyclone can do. A tropical cyclone landfall would be worse so that is why i would want to know.

all areas are vulnerable
jersey well typically late sept till mid October highest risk
but it can happen anytime latter half of a season
Quoting 347. MrTornadochase:


Great Lakes area is forecast to get a brief cool down to near average late this week before heat returns


brief it is still high normal summer time temps with a drop in humidity
I need rain pls send rain things need a drink
Quoting 334. pureet1948:



Means what?
Not sure, but the drawing made me laugh.

Hey, bl. Maybe I found the emoticon you were looking for. You know, the melon collie cynic.


....

Good night, peoples of the wu.

Quoting 350. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


all areas are vulnerable
jersey well typically late sept till mid October highest risk
but it can happen anytime latter half of a season

Thank You!
Quoting 339. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Throwback to just some of the comments in mid-August 2010, when the yearly 'this season is a bust' comments started coming out. Of course, we know the season ended up being the 3rd busiest on record.





LOL. Slow starts are very common in post-El Nino years which usually have most of the ACE in the second half of the season. Wonder if that will be the case this year
355. beell
Quoting 352. Barefootontherocks:

Not sure, but the drawing made me laugh.






sorry, bf. it was a fallopian slip
Quoting 350. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


all areas are vulnerable
jersey well typically late sept till mid October highest risk
but it can happen anytime latter half of a season

If it happens how strong would you expect it to be? The last hurricane to make land fall was in 1903 as a cat 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Before that was in 1821 either cat 3 or cat 4 and in 1804 with snow. A powerful hurricane also struck prior to colonial investigation, between 1200 and 1500
Quoting 332. beell:

Divergence aloft over the central gulf. High pressure to the west, a closed upper low over S FL.


what does this mean tropically?
The conditions were setting up differently in the MDR though back in 2010.....This year? Not so much....
Quoting 339. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Throwback to just some of the comments in mid-August 2010, when the yearly 'this season is a bust' comments started coming out. Of course, we know the season ended up being the 3rd busiest on record.






If I'm correct, Dr Master was pointing out the lack of vertical instability around mi-august 2010. But conditions improved during the latter part of the month with Danielle and Earl.
Quoting 357. lurkersince2008:

what does this mean tropically?
More air parcels lifting into the atmosphere to fire up thunderstorms.
361. IDTH
Quoting 358. washingtonian115:

The conditions were setting up differently in the MDR though back in 2010.....This year? Not so much....


You are right about that but the Caribbean, gulf and entire western Atlantic basin are way above normal in 2016.
meanwhile in the pacific,georgette is moving northwest and frank is moving west can we see a possibility for a fujiwara effect happen?
363. Tcwx2

Nice little line up their, role call please-Earl? Absent Fiona? Absent Gaston? Absent. Just kidding, lol.
Quoting 359. CaribBoy:



If I'm correct, Dr Master was pointing out the lack of vertical instability around mi-august 2010. But conditions improved during the latter part of the month with Danielle and Earl.

Right. Instability actually remained generally below average for the peak of the season:



I was pointing out that this 'the season is a bust' crowd traverses across multiple years, regardless of the expected activity. Everybody knew the season was going to pick up then, just like we all know it's going to pick up this year. Their posts make no sense to me.
Quoting 363. Tcwx2:


Nice little line up their, role call please-Earl? Absent Fiona? Absent Gaston? Absent. Just kidding, lol.
I wonder if one of these are capable of doing something.
366. Tcwx2
I wouldn't be too surprised for the one that the GFS was showing for days to get an invest area put on it, but I don't expect any more than that immediately. Down the road may be where they make us pay, was looking at some of the ensembles and they were bringing this wave to the Bahamas and possibly developing it. We shall see!!
Quoting 365. HurricaneAndre:

I wonder if one of these are capable of doing something.
Quoting 356. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


If it happens how strong would you expect it to be? The last hurricane to make land fall was in 1903 as a cat 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Before that was in 1821 either cat 3 or cat 4 and in 1804 with snow. A powerful hurricane also struck prior to colonial investigation, between 1200 and 1500


Did Hazel not make landfall? Hazel it was, maybe, or Camille? Mom told me one of those 1950s storms completely blew away an entire chicken coop, Vineland NJ, with hundreds of half grown pullets. I also remember Hurricane Belle as a NJ event - tossed a treebranch through the bay window in our Ventnor Heights home. A first for me as a kid, damage-wise.
Quoting 366. Tcwx2:

I wouldn't be too surprised for the one that the GFS was showing for days to get an invest area put on it, but I don't expect any more than that immediately. Down the road may be where they make us pay, was looking at some of the ensembles and they were bringing this wave to the Bahamas and possibly developing it. We shall see!!
So tell me this, are we going to see any development at all the next 3 weeks.
Blue Line Train pedestrian walkway roof in Chicago partially collapses after lightning strike, 6:57 p.m. CDT July 24th. No train derailed like the women in the video thought.



370. Tcwx2
HurricaneAndre my quote button has stopped working, or I'm doing something wrong one. So the answer to your question: I think we'll see Earl. Your thoughts?
Quoting 370. Tcwx2:

HurricaneAndre my quote button has stopped working, or I'm doing something wrong one. So the answer to your question: I think we'll see Earl. Your thoughts?
I think so.
373. Tcwx2

This is easily within reason IF the front drops down like the GFS shows it.

Cooler here, yesterday was 102.4F, today was 93.4. 109 at Airport yesterday, today 98 Much better....
Quoting 367. nonblanche:



Did Hazel not make landfall? Hazel it was, maybe, or Camille? Mom told me one of those 1950s storms completely blew away an entire chicken coop, Vineland NJ, with hundreds of half grown pullets. I also remember Hurricane Belle as a NJ event - tossed a treebranch through the bay window in our Ventnor Heights home. A first for me as a kid, damage-wise.

All of them were off shore.
Why is the spinning storm symbol and most of the storm clouds in 2 different locations?
khon2.com/2016/07/20/tropical-storm-darby-weakens -as-it-enters-the-central-pacific/
377. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA/NASA-Langley though they did do 99.99%.of the work, final product not an official product of either.
AREA:: Tropical region covered by this Sat imagery; GoMx-Caribbean + SE USofA
D&T:: 201607-23  till  201607-25;0345u
SAT TYPE:: goes13-2 types superimposed and funktopGal filtered.
OBS:: Just watching to see if anything (cyclonic spin) takes hold.
NOTE:: Made error in editing last few frames hence they are darker differently detailed imagery.
Fav colour:::turquoise

here 628x394 actual 922x579 - YOUTUBE https://youtu.be/B0iptRSg7IY

Georgette is a beauty right now
Flooding good in Honolulu. Over half a foot in places and pouring.
95W has a tropical depression warning from JMA

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
15:00 PM JST July 25 2016
============================

System #1
Far East of Japan
At 6:00 AM UTC, LOW (LUPIT) 1006 hPa located at 42.0N 158.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30-35 knots. The low is reported as moving north at 20 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=============
300 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
200 NM elsewhere

System #2
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 17.0N 116.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 10 knots.
382. SLU
Quoting 349. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Your image in no way refutes what I said, lol.


It supports it! Wish I could get an August 20, 2010 version to show the big difference between the time of the downcasting and the eventual result. That season produced one of the most dangerous cyclone outbreaks on record with 16-11-5 just between August 21st and October 29th.

383. beell
Quoting 357. lurkersince2008:

what does this mean tropically?


The intent was to explain the scattered convection in the central Gulf last night. Upper level air splitting to the east and west-more or less inside the red oval. If the mass of atmosphere in the upper levels is being removed, it has to be replaced from the lower levels. The short-story result is "lift"-which is a necessary requirement for "convection".

I'll not make that mistake again!
:)

You could also add "diffluence" to the "divergence" term. Either way, the end result is more or less the same. Nothing of concern at the surface regarding any tropical development in the central gulf last night. The ULL will be more interesting to watch but I don't think we'll see any tropical development there either.

Watch the water vapor loop and check where the upper flow begins to diverge or pull apart from a point near the coast of SE LA and continuing farther south. Some to the west around the edge of the upper ridge centered over the 4-corners region, some to the east along the western edge of the upper low over Florida.


384. beell
Quoting 364. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Right. Instability actually remained generally below average for the peak of the season:



I was pointing out that this 'the season is a bust' crowd traverses across multiple years, regardless of the expected activity. Everybody knew the season was going to pick up then, just like we all know it's going to pick up this year. Their posts make no sense to me.


And just to add a little more perspective to your point.

CLIMATOLOGY:

Climatological input parameters are computed over the following time periods:

RSST,VSHD,RVOR,THDV,HDIV,MSLP,TADV: 1995-2010


Some busy years.

Link
Russian wildfires put key climate resource at risk / Phys.org - July 22.

Zoomed-in screenshot : these are the huge wildfires to the northwest of Lake Baikal in Siberia showing up today on Himawari-8 latest pictures (sea Eastern Russia there). See also NASA Worldview (app) : that link should take you directly to the latest Siberian fires satellite imagery. Copernicus AMS - Aerosols optical depth (forecast for July 25, 2016, zoomed-in screenshot) :

The size and density of the smoke plume is quite remarkable. Unsurprisingly, there is also a very extended area featuring strongly positive temperature anomalies over the wildfires' region, and the next 5 days' forecast unfortunately calls for more of the same (according to Climate-Reanalyzer).
potential td could help break the heat as it moves through the eastern part of the us.
need many more years to determine a real instability average. 45 yrs is just a tiny piece of time.
388. beell
Quoting 387. islander101010:

need many more years to determine a real instability average. 45 yrs is just a tiny piece of time.


1995-2010
Remarkable how by August 10th, the GFS shows nothing in the atlantic. Simply remarkable
24-hour rainfall amounts for the eastern third of Oahu, including Honolulu:

Quoting 389. wunderweatherman123:

Remarkable how by August 10th, the GFS shows nothing in the atlantic. Simply remarkable

Why? Do you think there will be no storms in August? I guarantee you will have a system in August happens every year like clockwork or climatology.
Quoting 389. wunderweatherman123:

Remarkable how by August 10th, the GFS shows nothing in the atlantic. Simply remarkable
Computer models are not forecasts.
Good Morning Folks; I don't blog on weekends (fish and spend time with the family) but the Atlantic basin appears to be priming for August. Note the healthy ITCZ (where it was bone dry in the Central Atlantic last week) and the wave train is looking decent but needs to rise to the 10N mark (and It will over the next 3-4 weeks). That spin in the Central Atlantic is a mid-level-ULL and there is some broad vorticity across the ITCZ and the Gulf at the moment:


Surface Level:

Mid-Level:

And to the East in Africa and current shear levels across the basin:

Quoting 339. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Throwback to just some of the comments in mid-August 2010, when the yearly 'this season is a bust' comments started coming out. Of course, we know the season ended up being the 3rd busiest on record.





It is called instant gratification and jumping to conclusions. Of course the Atlantic is quiet it is suppose to be for July almost every year it is why is that difficult to grasp?
The Gulf looks interesting but under moderate shear and that Tutt cell (helping to cause the shear) draped between Cuba and the Eastern Gulf is enhancing the convection. Any kind of development is not likely.




398. beell

Current RAP 300 mb heights, winds, divergence
Quoting 339. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Throwback to just some of the comments in mid-August 2010, when the yearly 'this season is a bust' comments started coming out. Of course, we know the season ended up being the 3rd busiest on record.






Wow TA that hurts :(
Yeah, Nea that is a tremendous amount of rain in a short time. What is troubling are the very high totals on the tops of the Koolau's and running down behind Manoa Valley. I went to school at UH Manoa and I am assuming campus is currently very flooded. Actually past big floods destroyed a bunch of historic documents at the library and I believe FEMA was involved in clean-up and future flood mitigation. A "flash flood" of this nature may be an extraordinary event and hopefully when the sun comes up its not as bad as I fear it could be.

Right now lots of rain running off those mountains to the sea and could be overwhelming those routes to the ocean. It is probably a given that there will be a ring of sediment (brown mud) around most of the islands similar to the great New Year's floods back in the late 1980's. Sunrise in about 4 hours for them. Unfortunately I think there may be some very serious damage around the island.


Quoting 391. Neapolitan:

24-hour rainfall amounts for the eastern third of Oahu, including Honolulu:


Quoting 356. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


If it happens how strong would you expect it to be? The last hurricane to make land fall was in 1903 as a cat 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Before that was in 1821 either cat 3 or cat 4 and in 1804 with snow. A powerful hurricane also struck prior to colonial investigation, between 1200 and 1500


Your question is unanswerable. Hurricanes are unpredictable even when they are on the map in real time forget about predicting when/if they will strike a certain area. Be as prepared as you can, hurricane supply kit/evacuation plan etc and monitor the weather. That's all you can do. As to a branch from a neighbors tree you can cut any portion of it that extends over you property line, at least that is the way the law reads in my town.
Fun fact: Even if we get no storms we will be in an above average season until August 23rd.
(...) GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LLCC WILL FURTHER CONSOLIDATE INTO A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ANTICIPATED TRACK IS NORTHWESTWARD AND LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN CHINA IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72. BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION COUPLED WITH A PERSISTENT AND CONSOLIDATING CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE, THE POTENTIAL FOR FORMATION FOR A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 260900Z.

Quoted from Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTPN21 issued by the JTWC (Link) at 0900 UTC today for the South China Sea (95W). A TS making landfall there is the last thing Southern China needs at the moment, I guess. 95W :
The CMC has been consistent for a couple days showing the weak low moving into the Gulf Coast.
Slight circulation in SE LA in the mid levels or so. Was looking for this to happen yesterday after looking at loops, it looked like that would be the area and here it is.
Quoting 367. nonblanche:



Did Hazel not make landfall? Hazel it was, maybe, or Camille? Mom told me one of those 1950s storms completely blew away an entire chicken coop, Vineland NJ, with hundreds of half grown pullets. I also remember Hurricane Belle as a NJ event - tossed a treebranch through the bay window in our Ventnor Heights home. A first for me as a kid, damage-wise.
Belle was quite a event. Was in Barnegat ,NJ when it moved just offshore. Many trees down and roof damage. Power was out for a day...Coast was a mess.
Quoting 403. 999Ai2016:

(...) GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LLCC WILL FURTHER CONSOLIDATE INTO A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ANTICIPATED TRACK IS NORTHWESTWARD AND LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN CHINA IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72. BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION COUPLED WITH A PERSISTENT AND CONSOLIDATING CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE, THE POTENTIAL FOR FORMATION FOR A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 260900Z.

Quoted from Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTPN21 issued by the JTWC (Link) at 0900 UTC today for the South China Sea (95W). A TS making landfall there is the last thing Southern China needs at the moment, I guess. 95W :

Very true...Some areas are completely submerged..More rain coming to flooded regions will make it worse, especially if its torrential. 170 fatalities and dozens missing. 300,000 people evacuated.,

Quoting 389. wunderweatherman123:

Remarkable how by August 10th, the GFS shows nothing in the atlantic. Simply remarkable


Season is a dud
Quoting 408. Hester122:



Season is a dud


You will be proved incorrect.
Bring on the snow storms
Quoting 408. Hester122:



Season is a dud

Above average until 23rd of August given no more systems.
And Sfloridacat5's remark.

Define 'dud'.
The season is a bust rip bring on the snow storms it's winter time
HERE IS THE WAVE COMING OFF OF AFRICA THEY ARE WATCHING ITLink



HERE IS THE NEXT WAVE OFF AFRICA
415. JRRP

I do not forecast, but have watched this blog for years before joining. This would be my first hurricane season alone, so no storms for this region, PLEASE.
Quoting 408. Hester122:



Season is a dud
June and July usually are quiet..4 named storms already, including a rare January hurricane. I know myself that this year will not be a dud. Florida and Carolina's seem like likely targets, including the Bahamas..Here is Alex from January...

Quoting 416. NEFLWATCHING:

I do not forecast, but have watched this blog for years before joining. This would be my first hurricane season alone, so no storms for this region, PLEASE.
Actually, this pattern puts you area at a higher risk of a landfall..Things will change a bit as we enter the heart of the season. B/A High pressure will build westward , with a weakness over the Mid Atlantic States...jmo....This is a week out...

Current Pouches. We got new pouches, Pouch 06L and Pouch 09L.
421. Tcwx2
Cmon Taz your smarter than that. You know good and well that you cannot call a season in July. But I do agree with you about the snow part but let's get through October first before we say it's a bust.
Quoting 412. Tazmanian:

The season is a bust rip bring on the snow storms it's winter time
Quoting 412. Tazmanian:

The season is a bust rip bring on the snow storms it's winter time
Hi Taz! Just a thought... would you consider using different avatars during different seasons? I think it would be cool, you could have a certain one for fall and a different one for summer. Let us know, and we'll pick them out for you. Thanks!
The current A-B high pattern in the Central Atlantic, along with some ridging all the way towards Florida, would favor long track CV trajectories into the Caribbean. However, it is anyones guess, as to each individual storm, whether it may avoid the US (or Caribbean) because of storm formation in the Central Atlantic before 55W, resulting in a potential fish storm, or a deep trof picking up the storm before reaching the US. Those deeper trofs tend to get started in earnest by mid-to-late September (long with true Fall) through the end of the season. But any August to early September storms approaching the Caribbean will need to be closely watched in the Caribbean and US this season from the look of the ridging pattern set up:


[JavaScript Image Player]
I was sweating buckets yesterday, then it rained buckets last night. We had 1.65" of rain in 45 minutes, most of it in fifteen minutes. Chicago area.
And so it begins... July 25 Here comes prime time.

Time of rapid change in the Atlantic. May everyone be safe again this season.


Quoting 420. Climate175:

Current Pouches. We got new pouches, Pouch 06L and Pouch 09L.
Quoting 389. wunderweatherman123:

Remarkable how by August 10th, the GFS shows nothing in the atlantic. Simply remarkable
Don't post this..you will get attacked...
Anyway last comment for the day.Might check back in the evening
Quoting 427. HaoleboySurfEC:

And so it begins... July 25 Here comes prime time.

Time of rapid change in the Atlantic. May everyone be safe again this season.





I don't post much, but I agree with you. Things are going to start popping soon.
raining:


raining buckets:
There is some dust, but that should lessen a bit as time goes by..



June 25: "Wow, this season could be more active than 2005!"
July 25: "This season is a bust"
SAL killing the tropical wave just east of me :/
Pouch 05L:
A tropical wave is in the west Atlantic from 08N-21N with axis
near 56W, moving at 30 kt within the last 24 hours. CIRA LPW from
the surface to 850 mb show moisture has increased in the northern
wave environment, which is supporting scattered moderate
convection from 17N-20N between 56W and 59W. Meteosat composite
imagery show Saharan dry air and dust in the remainder wave
environment, which hinder the convection elsewhere.
Bummer. I know you need rain.

Quoting 433. CaribBoy:

SAL killing the tropical wave just east of me :/
rain shield expanding offshore

Quoting 432. HurricaneFan:

June 25: "Wow, this season could be more active than 2005!"
July 25: "This season is a bust"

Aug. 24, 1992 - First named system of the season.
Nature can create its own atmosphere for its own gain
Good morning guys and gals. GFS shows pressures lowering in the southern MDR 5 days out. If this season is a bust I will eat crusty crow with no sauce.
Quoting 423. Llamaluvr:

Hi Taz! Just a thought... would you consider using different avatars during different seasons? I think it would be cool, you could have a certain one for fall and a different one for summer. Let us know, and we'll pick them out for you. Thanks!



Don't even start
Luckily those 2 men were rescued 125 miles SE of Galveston over the weekend before this mess out there has taken over

Quoting 389. wunderweatherman123:

Remarkable how by August 10th, the GFS shows nothing in the atlantic. Simply remarkable

Ahh, taking this model as gospel??
NAM and CMC both have a low over the central Gulf Coast in the next 24 hours or so. So looks quite rainy for that region the next few days.
Quoting 298. rockcity340:

So its Not even the middle of Hurricane season and people are talking about winter storms haha 😂


Some of us are very happy with no hurricanes and just want to get out of this mind destroying soul-sucking heat. Winter pix make us feel better.
Close up visible satellite of the New Orleans area.
Link
This quiet time of the tropics now is the time to refresh your preparations. As each year passes more and more people get complacent. Many have never experienced a tropical storm let alone a Hurricane.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
It is perfectly normal for the active part of the season to start around the 18th of August.
453. JRRP
Quoting 450. WunderAlertBot:

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 201. 77w18nKingston:

Dry Thunder!! My invention. Sunny Day then, Boom!!!


Welcome to the blog. I'm a few days late!