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Eastern Hemisphere's All-Time Temperature Record: Kuwait Fries in 54°C (129.2°F) Heat

By: Jeff Masters 3:01 AM GMT on July 22, 2016

It was a historic day in the annals of meteorology on Thursday, July 21, 2016 in the Middle East, where the temperature in Mitribah, Kuwait soared to an astonishing 54°C (129.2°F). If verified, this would be Earth's hottest temperature ever reliably measured outside of Death Valley, California, according to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt. The temperature is likely to be verified, since Thursday's incredible heat also extended into Iraq, which set their all-time heat record: 128°F (53.4°C) at Basrah. According to Burt and Herrera, Thursday's Basrah reading ranks as the fourth highest temperature ever reliably measured outside of Death Valley; the only higher non-Death Valley temperatures were today's 54°C (129.2°F) at Mitribah, Kuwait, a 53.6°C reading at Sulaibya, Kuwait in 2011, and a 53.5°C reading at Mohenjodaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010. Note that there is one other competitor for hottest non-Death Valley temperature ever measured: the official all-time high temperature in Israel is a 54°C (129.2°F) reading from Tirat Tsvi, Israel on June 22, 1942. The Israeli Met Office pursued an investigation of the record in 2012, prompted by an inquiry from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and convincing evidence from wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt and weather extremes expert Howard Rainford that the actual high temperature was a full degree lower. The Israeli Met Office concluded that the record was valid, but refused to make public the details leading to their conclusions. Until they do so, the record remains suspect.


Figure 1. A photograph of the official Furnace Creek, Death Valley maximum recording thermometer at time of observation on Monday morning July 1, 2013 (which was for the maximum temperature measured on June 30). The photo shows a maximum of 129.2°F was reached, tying it with the 129.2°F reading at Mitribah, Kuwait, on July 21, 2016, for the highest reliably measured temperature on Earth, according to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt. Observations at the site are made only at 4 p.m. and 7 a.m. daily. The shelter door is not opened at any other time in order to not affect the ambient air temperature inside the shelter. You may have seen a different image of this same thermometer on the NWS-Las Vegas web site posted July 1, 2013 that shows the temperature just shy of 129°. That is because THAT photograph was taken after the thermometer had been removed from its shelter and turned vertically, which caused the mercury to slip down the tube about 0.3°F. This photograph was taken prior to the thermometer being removed from the shelter. Photo courtesy of Death Valley National Park and NWS-Las Vegas.

Comparison with Death Valley temperatures
The official world record high temperature is 56.7 °C (134.1 °F) on July 10, 1913, in Furnace Creek Ranch, California, in Death Valley. Mr. Burt has commented "the record has been scrutinized perhaps more than any other in the United States. I don't have much more to add to the debate aside from my belief it is most likely not a valid reading when one looks at all the evidence." He proposes that the highest reliably recorded temperature at Death Valley is a 54.0 °C (129.2 °F) reading on June 30, 2013--tied with Thursday's measurement in Kuwait. The 129.2°F value at Death Valley was rounded down to 129°F in the official record, though. Death Valley has also recorded 53.9°C (129°F) four times: July 20, 1960, July 18, 1998, July 20, 2005, July 7, 2007. There is no evidence that the temperature reached 129.2°F on those dates, unlike the reading on June 30, 2013.

The Middle East's heat wave continues on Friday
The Middle East's astonishing heat wave will last one more day. Friday's high in Basrah, Iraq is predicted to hit 128°F and Mitribah, Kuwait is predicted to hit 127°F. Gotvand, Iran is predicted to hit 126°F--very close to Iran's all-time heat record of 127.4°F, set most recently at Gotvand on July 17, 2014. On Saturday, the ridge of high pressure bringing the record heat will weaken, bringing temperatures about 10°F cooler to Iraq and Kuwait, and about 2 - 4°F cooler to Iran.

UPDATE: On Friday, July 22, 2016, Basrah, Iraq International Airport reported a high temperature of 53.9°C (129°F). Today's high in Basrah is the second highest reliably measured temperature in world recorded history outside of Death Valley, California. Only yesterday's 54°C (129.2°F) at Mitribah, Kuwait was hotter.

Mr. Burt plans to post an in-depth look at the new heat records in a forthcoming post.

I'll have an update on the tropics on Friday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Wow! Late night update!!! Thanks, guys!

And coming on the heels of Brian's "anti-a/c" post, quite ironic. I don't want to imagine 129 degrees ... I'm barely coping with 93-feels-like-104 over here ....
Repost from previous blog

SAL has eased a lot in the eastern MDR due to the recent passage of the tropical waves.
From last blog:
Quoting 305. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Your thoughts are right. Lake effect snow occurs when extremely cold northwesterly flow overspreads the relatively warmer Great Lakes. The larger the temperature difference between the air and the lakes, the more substantial the lake effect snow season should be. The season only winds down when continued exposure to cold air causes the lakes to cool and then freeze. The warmer the anomalies, the longer that takes.
Thanks for the answer, twx13. It seemed a logical conclusion, but I haven't paid enough attention to the mechanisms related to snow formation to be certain.
Quoting 2. HurricaneFan:

Repost from previous blog

SAL has eased a lot in the eastern MDR due to the recent passage of the tropical waves.
I expect we'll see even more of a retreat of that by this time next month ....
Interesting blog update! 100 degrees in New Jersey began to melt the roads! Heat is amazing!
Quoting 1. BahaHurican:

Wow! Late night update!!! Thanks, guys!

And coming on the heels of Brian's "anti-a/c" post, quite ironic. I don't want to imagine 129 degrees ... I'm barely coping with 93-feels-like-104 over here ....


I know how you feel. The A/C and the heat are having a battle to the death all day. The electric bill ;_;
00z GFS about to run. Let's see how it goes...
late night update thanks

heat is on
Quoting 7. HurricaneFan:

00z GFS about to run. Let's see how it goes...

Can you link it please.
Temperature:

81.3°F

Dewpoint:

69.6°F

Humidity:

67%

Wind:

SW 11 mph

Humidex:

96
Quoting 9. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


Can you link it please.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
The GFS model is the first one that comes up
this is at 11 30 at night tomorrow we should peak with a feel like temp of 109 or just above
Quoting 11. HurricaneFan:


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
The GFS model is the first one that comes up

Thank you.
I don't understand how people live in those conditions--can you imagine giving birth in your hut when it's that hot?


Please make it stop!
Guess I need to tweak my troll post from this morning just a bit.



Seems probabilities are a bit higher than I gave them credit for. Just a bit. Maybe. ;)
Quoting 14. BaltimoreBrian:

I don't understand how people live in those conditions--can you imagine giving birth in your hut when it's that hot?


July babies ..I had my daughter July 12th ...I remember the day before she was born. I had gone to the grocery store and had car problems on the way home. I called a cab that never showed up ...so I walked home about 1/4 mile with several bags of groceries. I remember getting home, being in tears. I did not think that it would affect me like it did. Most horrible day of my life. She came the next day, emergency c-section and life hasnt been the same since ...lol
Quoting 17. justmehouston:



July babies ..I had my daughter July 12th ...I remember the day before she was born. I had gone to the grocery store and had car problems on the way home. I called a cab that never showed up ...so I walked home about 1/4 mile with several bags of groceries. I remember getting home, being in tears. I did not think that it would affect me like it did. Most horrible day of my life. She came the next day, emergency c-section and life hasnt been the same since ...lol


Wow, I had no idea you were a girl. Cool!
No development (so far) on this run...
Currently 86.7F
91F heat index @11:22pm CDT
Looks like there is no development this run...
Quoting 23. washingtonian115:

Looks like their is no development this run...



I give up.
Quoting 23. washingtonian115:

Looks like their is no development this run...




Little guy ~25W ~10N

26. IDTH
Goodnight fellow underground members! And always remember, much can change very quickly when it comes to the tropics and it only takes one.
Quoting 24. CaribBoy:



I give up.


I don't.
Quoting 28. Gearsts:




Good night guys, no need to stay up longer because this wave is a bust.
It was a hot one in Southern Wisconsin as well. Heat index reached 115, followed by a terrific storm of nearly 5 inches. We received maybe an inch of rain at my house but my folks witnessed the insane downpour, which lasted maybe 2 hours followed by an hour of constant thunder and lightning.
Quoting 27. KoritheMan:



I don't.

I'm not either. I've been seeing too many inconsistencies on these last few GFS runs. One run it's less dry air, the next it's more dry air. Maybe it's a wait and see type of situation. However, i still think it has a 30% chance of developing. Tropical waves in the east Atlantic have moistened up the area a little, so I'm curious to see how it affects our future storm.
Quoting 29. CaribBoy:



Good night guys, no need to stay up longer because this wave is a bust.


It's July. Plenty of active seasons started even later than this. This is literally nothing, lol.
Quoting 31. tiggerhurricanes2001:


I'm not either. I've been seeing too many inconsistencies on these last few GFS runs. One run it's less dry air, the next it's more dry air. Maybe it's a wait and see type of situation. However, i still think it has a 30% chance of developing. Tropical waves in the east Atlantic have moistened up the area a little, so I'm curious to see how it affects our future storm.


I was talking about the season as a whole, but okay. lol

Also, ALL meteorology is technically wait and see. Like Darby. Go look at Darby. :)
Quoting 52. no1der:

A few excerpts from the 2016 Republican Platform:

"The Administration now requires the Department of Defense, operating with slashed budgets during a time of expanding conflict, to use its scarce resources to generate 25 percent of its electricity from renewables by 2025. Climate change is far from this nation's most pressing national security issue. This is the triumph of extremism over common sense, and Congress must stop it"

"The Endangered Species Act (ESA) should not include species such as gray wolves and other species if these species exist elsewhere in healthy numbers in another state or country."

"Information concerning a changing climate, especially projections into the long-range future, must be based on dispassionate analysis of hard data. We will enforce that standard throughout the executive branch, among civil servants and presidential appointees alike. The United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is a political mechanism, not an unbiased scientific institution. Its unreliability is reflected in its intolerance toward scientists and others who dissent from its orthodoxy. We will evaluate its recommendations accordingly. We reject the agendas of both the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement."

"We demand an immediate halt to U.S. funding for the U.N.'s Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)"


Quoting 34. Patrap:






sigh
Also, lol

"Information concerning a changing climate, especially projections into the long-range future, must be based on dispassionate analysis of hard data. We will enforce that standard throughout the executive branch, among civil servants and presidential appointees alike. The United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is a political mechanism, not an unbiased scientific institution. Its unreliability is reflected in its intolerance toward scientists and others who dissent from its orthodoxy."
Quoting 35. KoritheMan:



sigh


Look on the bright side Kori...if we get a gom cane u can ride it out here and save dem bucks.

;-)
Quoting 36. KoritheMan:

Also, lol

"Information concerning a changing climate, especially projections into the long-range future, must be based on dispassionate analysis of hard data. We will enforce that standard throughout the executive branch, among civil servants and presidential appointees alike. The United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is a political mechanism, not an unbiased scientific institution. Its unreliability is reflected in its intolerance toward scientists and others who dissent from its orthodoxy."


Quoting 37. Patrap:



Look on the bright side Kori...if we get a gom cane u can ride it out here and save dem bucks.

;-)


Already remembered your offer from last year, pal. Thanks a bunch! :D
Standing rules from k are still in effect. All cane attendees must bring ice and 20 gals fuel for the JENNY to run ac.

Food I have. MREs beaucoup.


Area of Low Pressure just off the African coast will need to be watched, just in case.


SYNOPSIS 2016072100

P05L
14N, 22W
700 hPa


ECMWF: Consistent with yesterday. Starts with an uncertain position for the wave-pouch near the northern tip of the African monsoon trough. P05L then tracks WSW across the eastern Atlantic, with a distinct OW max for a couple days. By Day 3, P05L is stretched NW-SE and dissipates on Day 4.

GFS: Starts even farther north than ECMWF, then quickly loses latitude as the wave-pouch (more wave than pouch) tracks to the SW. Gets stretched NW-SE and dissipates on Day 3, sooner than ECMWF.

UKMET:

HWRF-GEN:


ECMWF -9.5 -0.8 track 96h
GFS -8.4 -3.9 track 60h
UKMET
HWGEN




see you tomorrow
Good night all. Who is to tell what will or will not happen in any given season? By the way how do the models work? How do they gather information? Could someone please explain. Thank you
Quoting 44. wadadlian:

Good night all. Who is to tell what will or will not happen in any given season? By the way how do the models work? How do they gather information? Could someone please explain. Thank you


The models are fed data through what's called an initialization; this literally means starting conditions. Say you had a temperature of 74F in Memphis, Tennessee tonight. That data is fed into the initialization of the model, and a prediction is made from that data. In general, there is less real-time upper air/surface data over the open oceans, so models are statistically less accurate in remote areas than they are on the coast. But in the end, we still need forecasters to actually interpret data, because the models WILL have errors. Every single time. Also, model error increases with time, especially beyond 5 - 7 days.
It was 112 F at 10:00 PM this evening in Death Valley. The high today was only 119. Forecast tomorrow to be 122.
Update - New Systems form in EPAC. WPAC and EPAC is quiet.
ATL - Nothing to watch yet.

Read the full post here.

Looks like Darby will rake the entire Hawaiian chain. If it makes it onshore while still a tropical storm, it will be the second of the season to make a US landfall.
Hit 99.9 at my place today, 105 at the Airport(KRAL) and 101.2 at Indian Hills PWS, No AC used today...
Oh, and good night, take the helm Kori....
Quoting 18. KoritheMan:



Wow, I had no idea you were a girl. Cool!


ahhhh...... winding down after my last late-night shift, helping out at my favorite bar ..... needed that giggle Kori! Thank you!!

-L
Quoting 51. LindyVirginIslander:



ahhhh...... winding down after my last late-night shift, helping out at my favorite bar ..... needed that giggle Kori! Thank you!!

-L
Well, I just woke up ... lol ... those late night shifts can be rough. Looking at posted messages so far, I don't seem to have missed much while I was out like a light .... lol ...
Quoting 30. Snacker2:

It was a hot one in Southern Wisconsin as well. Heat index reached 115, followed by a terrific storm of nearly 5 inches. We received maybe an inch of rain at my house but my folks witnessed the insane downpour, which lasted maybe 2 hours followed by an hour of constant thunder and lightning.



60-70 mph through the Columbus, and Beaver Dam, Wisconsin area. Many power lines down for communities just north of here. Closer to 60 here, large branches down and lots of smaller branches everywhere. Dew points were in the mid seventies or higher.
Quoting 51. LindyVirginIslander:



ahhhh...... winding down after my last late-night shift, helping out at my favorite bar ..... needed that giggle Kori! Thank you!!

-L


Uh... okay? Glad to help...? >_>;
Darby


Water Vapor (or lack of)

TROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 43
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052016
1100 PM HST THU JUL 21 2016

Cloud tops associated with Darby have warmed significantly over the past six hours, while overall organization has decreased. Outflow remains best to the north and northeast, but has become hindered to the southeast. Objective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates remain 3.0/45 knots from all three analysis centers (HFO, JTWC, SAB), but an 0324 UTC WINDSAT pass showed a swath of 55 kt winds across the northeast semicircle close to the LLCC, prompting a continued initial intensity of 55 kt for this advisory. Initial reconnaissance into Darby by the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron is scheduled for Friday morning, and their data will give us a much better idea as to Darby's intensity and size.

Initial motion is 265/09 kt, representing a bit of slowing since the last advisory. WINDSAT and SSMIS from earlier this evening hinted that Darby was tilted slightly to the northeast with height, consistent with SHIPS showing southwesterly shear between 10 and 15 knots. The initial motion slightly south of due west may be due to earlier advisory positions placed slightly too far north. At any rate, Darby continues to move along the southern flank of a ridge centered north of Hawaii and will continue to do so through 36 hours. Afterwards, a deep low will dig south and weaken the ridge, slowing this system down and allowing Darby to curve gently northwestward from 36 to 72 hours, then northward beyond 72 hours. Track guidance shifted slightly to the right, placing the current forecast firmly within a tightening envelope. The forecast track was altered slightly to the left through 12 hours for initial motion, then to the right beyond 72 hours to stay close to TVCN consensus. The rest of the track, including that portion closest to the Hawaiian Islands, is unchanged.

The intensity forecast is close to the previous one, with shear initially weakening through 36 hours, then strengthening rapidly to 30 knots from the southwest at 72 hours. The effects of shear and slightly warmer SSTS are expected to essentially cancel each other out through 48 hours, with the weakening effects of shear becoming dominant afterwards as Darby gains latitude. Any weakening effects that land interaction would have on Darby intensity have been ignored so far.

Interests outside of the watch and warning areas in the Hawaiian islands should monitor the progress of Darby, as it could eventually have impacts on all islands through early next week. Remember, it is important not to focus too closely on the exact track and intensity forecasts because the average track error 72 hours out is near 100 miles, while the average intensity error is about 15 kt. In addition, the hazards of a tropical cyclone can extend over a broad area well away from the center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 18.8N 148.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 18.7N 149.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 18.9N 151.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 19.4N 153.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 20.1N 154.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 22.1N 157.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 24.4N 159.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 28.1N 160.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
Quoting 31. tiggerhurricanes2001:


I'm not either. I've been seeing too many inconsistencies on these last few GFS runs. One run it's less dry air, the next it's more dry air. Maybe it's a wait and see type of situation. However, i still think it has a 30% chance of developing. Tropical waves in the east Atlantic have moistened up the area a little, so I'm curious to see how it affects our future storm.
It will be a vigorous wave coming off Wednesday, so it's going to have to be watched, and NHC will be on it soon.
The Euro Ensembles starting to show something as well.

Quoting 60. Climate175:

The Euro Ensembles starting to show something as well.
Good morning, Is that link available? Thanks.
Thanks Dr for the record; I can only think of our men and women in uniform, past and present, who work in those conditions as well as the people who live there.  This may become a relative norm or frequent event in the future for so many regions and parts of the world in summer.  On that note, the Conus highs for today:



 
And the current state of the global tropics; the E-Pac added another storm since this post yesterday morning:

Combined image of all basins

Quoting 61. Vigilante:


Good morning, Is that link available? Thanks.
I was trying to post the image of it, but it does not appear to be coming up, but they are showing something on it.
Quoting 60. Climate175:

The Euro Ensembles starting to show something as well.

Thanks
And looking to the East in the Atlantic; no current signs of any organization with the elongated area associated with the current waves which are below 10N but lots of moisture on the Continent behind them which will continue to flow into the Atlantic priming it for a nice ITCZ stretch from the Cape Verde Islands to the Caribbean over the next several weeks:



And current shear levels in the Central Atlantic; the current waves below 10N are under moderate shear of about 20 knots:

Thanks for the update. Meteo-France has also taken note of this new record high temperature in Basrah, and many other weather websites have published Twitter messages about it. For example, Etienne Kapikian, one of Meteo-France's forecasters published this screenshot, saying Mitribah set an absolute record high temp for Koweit/Asia, while Bassorah set a new one for Iraq :

=============
Welcome to the 21st century :

Climate-exodus expected in the Middle East and North Africa

Phys.org - May 2, 2016.

More than 500 million people live in the Middle East and North Africa - a region which is very hot in summer and where climate change is already evident. The number of extremely hot days has doubled since 1970. "In future, the climate in large parts of the Middle East and North Africa could change in such a manner that the very existence of its inhabitants is in jeopardy," says Jos Lelieveld, Director at the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry and Professor at the Cyprus Institute.
stalled out front getting some color e. of Fl.
Quoting 68. 999Ai2016:

Thanks for the update. Meteo-France has also taken note of this new record high temperature in Basrah, and many other weather websites have published Twitter messages about it. For example, Etienne Kapikian, one of Meteo-France's forecasters published this screenshot, saying Mitribah set an absolute record high temp for Koweit/Asia, while Bassorah set a new one for Iraq :

=============
Welcome to the 21st century :

Climate-exodus expected in the Middle East and North Africa

Phys.org - May 2, 2016.

More than 500 million people live in the Middle East and North Africa - a region which is very hot in summer and where climate change is already evident. The number of extremely hot days has doubled since 1970. "In future, the climate in large parts of the Middle East and North Africa could change in such a manner that the very existence of its inhabitants is in jeopardy," says Jos Lelieveld, Director at the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry and Professor at the Cyprus Institute.

Already happening.
Quoting 69. islander101010:

stalled out front getting some color e. of Fl.
Getting some useful cloud cover here this morning .... along the same front, it seems.
Immigration related to climate refuges is going to be one of the pressing issues in the 21st century; whether hotter summers/drought issues, related sea level rise including salt water intrusion into inland fresh water sources and aquifers, and crop failure issues. International aid relief as each issue unfolds in any given region, or keeping the people in place through technology and alternate solutions to combat these issues, is one alternative in the absence of moving large numbers of people across borders. As mentioned before, in the past our nomadic ancestors (before settlement into cities) could move with the climate changes, but we are pretty much stuck in place within our own country borders at this juncture in human history. The US is large enough to absorb some of these issues (Dust Bowl Migration as an example) but the smaller nations affected by regional climate change impacts are going to have a very difficult time.
morning,
many here are very disappointed with the lack of activity in the month of JULY. The records show that the month of July 1851-2015 ,that there was 118 tropical storm withan average of 0.7% while there were 55 hurricanes with an average of 0.3%. it shows that July has always been very quiet. we have now to wait and see what the next two months will produce as it pertains to increased activity.
Quoting 63. weathermanwannabe:

And the current state of the global tropics; the E-Pac added another storm since this post yesterday morning:

Combined image of all basins




Feeling so sad when I look at the E Pac. Even the WPac is sleeping....
Quoting 70. cRRKampen:


Already happening.

Yes, that's the whole point summed up in two words :-)
And when a "Director at the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry" speaks, I listen. Their physics and chemistry departments are among the best in the world, so it's a pretty big deal...
77. JRRP
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice
GEFS up to 60% now on MDR genesis.. ECMWF finally showing a 10% risk. It all comes down to how models handle AEWs
Quoting 75. CaribBoy:



Feeling so sad when I look at the E Pac. Even the WPac is sleeping....



well have too keep a eye on the W PAC come later in the season in too the fall has CA can get some good rains from lift over hurricanes that come from the W PAC in the fall
So I just went to Wikipedia and the highest recorded temperature in Kuwait was 54.4 Celsius or 129.9 deg. F. So clearly this article is in error and the temperature in Kuwait today was not a record. I would hope that the author would do a better job checking before making these "Chicken Little" claims.
Probabilities go up for activity in East Atlantic.

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice · 17m17 minutes ago

GEFS up to 60% now on MDR genesis.. ECMWF finally showing a 10% risk. It all comes down to how models handle AEWs



Quoting 74. luvtogolf:

Last night was truly an historic and great night for America!




He is not getting my vote given his position on this topic near and dear to my heart:


Trump also promised to get rid of Obama's measures to reduce emissions, cancel the Paris climate agreement, rebuild the coal industry, and support fracking. Trump didn't clarify his position on manmade climate change, but he has said in the past that he is not a great believer, and that manmade climate change is a total hoax, bull**** and a concept created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing non-competitive.

Ah, the seventh tropical storm of the seventh month of 2016 in the Eastern Pacific has come. Welcome, Tropical Storm Georgette.
"A tropical wave that moved across the Atlantic from near the west coast of Africa eventually spawned the tropical cyclone that became Hurricane Katrina. The tropical wave became a tropical depression near the central Bahamas late on August 22. The depression moved slowly northwest and became Tropical Storm Katrina on August 24 near the northwest Bahamas then turned west and intensified to a hurricane on August 25, a few hours before making landfall."

I am very wary of the current set up in the Atlantic. Stay safe.
wiki is created by its users i use it but would not use it as a reference. stalled out front looking for a yellow
Quoting 79. Sandy82579:

So I just went to Wikipedia and the highest recorded temperature in Kuwait was 54.4 Celsius or 129.9 deg. F. So clearly this article is in error and the temperature in Kuwait today was not a record. I would hope that the author would do a better job checking before making these "Chicken Little" claims.


It's funny, on their Kuwait page there is a link to their "climate of Kuwait" page which shows the record being 128.8. Perhaps you never went to college, but as my professors use to say over and over, "wikipedia is not a credible source and can not be used as one of your sources"

And yes, I hope you feel a little silly, maybe you should go troll some other blog with your nonsense.
It was at least 129F in Basrah, Iraq today. I'm anxious to find out if it surpassed yesterday's reading in Mitribah, Kuwait. I'm working at Camp Arifjan in Kuwait and the only thing keeping the temperature from these readings is an afternoon breeze off the Persian/Arabian Gulf. It was 120F yesterday by 11AM at KWI but shortly thereafter, the humidity surged and the temperature fell several degrees. The apparent temperature was as high as 146F at Egaila Block 3 when the ambient temperature was 110F and the dewpoint was 86F!
89. IKE
The Atlantic.....snooze.
With something as potentially error prone as manual temperature readings taken from a liquid in glass thermometer by multiple observers over time, record high values should be assessed in a number of ways as suggested here. Some level of consistency with neighboring meteorological stations for the period in question, realistic daily trends, and a credible and supporting distribution of previous near record temperatures at the same station, particularly helpful for stations that have been in use for long times.

Not to be too obvious, if the following two hypothetical series represented the ten highest daily maximum temperatures (°F) recorded at a weather station over a long period of time, one would take a very hard look at the record value of the second:

124 124 124 125 125 126 127 127 128 128
124 124 124 125 125 126 127 127 128 134

The same applies for other types of records as well. The maximum wind speed measured at Mount Washington is a good example, with a measurement taken from a newly deployed instrument that greatly exceeded any taken since, and which was collected under extremely difficult conditions of gusting wind, snow and ice buildup.

In physical measurements, extreme outliers are often errors. Not always, of course, but the possibility should always be kept front and center.
Just glanced through the comments and verified that yes - record highs are getting clobbered in the Persian Gulf today. I can only imagine how awful it feels.
Quoting 79. Sandy82579:

So I just went to Wikipedia and the highest recorded temperature in Kuwait was 54.4 Celsius or 129.9 deg. F. So clearly this article is in error and the temperature in Kuwait today was not a record. I would hope that the author would do a better job checking before making these "Chicken Little" claims.
Reality can be difficult to accept when it flies in the face of one's preconceptions and ideological beliefs. But, please, try to stay respectful. Thanks!

Ad UPDATE:
54 °C At 3 pm local time on Friday, July 22, 2016, Basra, Iraq is clearly rounded number. Exact numbers are only every 3 hours in synop. 53,6 °C is at airport and 53,4 °C at Hussen station. So we must wait for exact maximum.

GFS shows what appears to be a tropical storm with the TW in just 120 hours...yellow crayon tonight?
Quoting 86. islander101010:

wiki is created by its users its good but wouldnt be accepted in my classroom


Drives my instructors crazy how many peoples' main source comes from there. But, they don't like web-based searches at all really, though if looking up something rare and not available in books, they don't mind. I hate having to reference wiki on papers. But my initial search will always include a look at it, even though it's mainly to see links for their references, as I like to avoid using references already highly used.

Weather here, had our hottest day of the year on Tuesday, 30' or so around the North West. Luckily, I was in Scotland for a few nights and spent that day in Aberdeen, far in the N/E...was about 23' that day, so I was happy to avoid the heat! On Weds, had a large swath of thunderstorms go through from North Wales and North England up through Scotland, never seen such a stretch of lightening here on Sat24.com! Driving out of Edinburgh, took a photo of some mammatus clouds over the city, though they weren't as pronounced as photos I've seen on here. Yesterday driving out of Liverpool, was a pretty nasty looking cell as well. Again, nothing like images from the mid-west, but pretty good for here!

And just to say, Scotland is lovely jubbly and its cities I visited are great: Edinburgh, Glasgow and Aberdeen. If Scotland gets to somehow stay in the EU in any way, I would be happy to move up there! And that was just a city visit, didn't even get up to the real scenic areas of the N/W.
Quoting 53. DeepSeaRising:




60-70 mph through the Columbus, and Beaver Dam, Wisconsin area. Many power lines down for communities just north of here. Closer to 60 here, large branches down and lots of smaller branches everywhere. Dew points were in the mid seventies or higher.

No tree damage in Waterloo but trees were down in my folk's neighborhood on the SW side of Madison. Winds probably didn't exceed 40 MPH here. My old man was most excited about the rain, he couldn't stop talking about how awesome it was. He said that the word awesome is overused, but it really fit the intensity of that downpour. After the rain he couldn't do a proper bucket survey because everything was full.
Okay, at least the current heat in the Middle East saves a lot of energy in the kitchen :-) Many videos like those below available from yesterday and today, lol:


Translation:
"Fry eggs on the heat of the sun because of the terrible heat wave
This young man documents the high temperature experienced by the country.
Arab channel Al-Saeed"


Iraqi fry eggs on the sun's heat

Extreme heat across Middle East
BBC weather video, 22nd July 2016 Last updated at 15:08
Recent highs of 54C in Kuwait could potentially be record breaking.
BBC Weather's Peter Gibbs reports on the extreme heat affecting the Middle East.
Quoting 86. islander101010:

wiki is created by its users i use it but would not use it as a reference. stalled out front looking for a yellow


Professors specifically tell you NOT to use Wiki as a reference. But I use it when I'm just fishing for quick information on something.
It's getting worse in Russia -
Terra/MODIS
2016/204
07/22/2016
06:25 UTC


Link
Terra/MODIS
2016/204
07/22/2016
04:50 UTC


Link
Darby looks awful this morning and that is good news for Hawaii.Could bring them some breezy showers and rough surf but thankfully nothing like what the HWRF was showing.


Swampy atmosphere currently in midwest Europe with a bunch of slowly moving storms, creating flooding and flashfloods. Well, this is obviously the pattern of this summer for many in Germany.


Current webcamshot from the German part of the Alps. Source: foto-webcam.eu
Quoting 105. barbamz:



Swampy atmosphere currently in midwest Europe with a bunch of slowly moving storms, creating flooding and flashfloods. Well, this is obviously the pattern of this summer for many in Germany.


Current webcamshot from the German part of the Alps. Source: foto-webcam.eu


I've been watching the Tour de France as the riders deal with the rain today.
Quoting 101. RobertWC:


the earth will be scorch with heat and fire
109. MahFL
Quoting 104. washingtonian115:

Darby looks awful this morning and that is good news for Hawaii.


Darby actually looks ok :

Quoting 103. RobertWC:

Terra/MODIS
2016/204
07/22/2016
04:50 UTC


Link

The end of the world will never reach the media, which will obsess over some partly bared celebrity nipple as it happens. And so it is now.

This is, of course, it: the beginning of the end. This is the largest biomass of the world burning.
Corals seem to have passed a tipping point: they are still dying with El Niño gone and winter in AUS.

Thanks guys for destroying MY planet.
Quoting 95. HurricaneFan:


GFS shows what appears to be a tropical storm with the TW in just 120 hours...yellow crayon tonight?
A yellow crayon appears very imminent.
The wave is starting to come together over South Sudan, it is going to have a 4-5 day trek across the land before it reaches the Atlantic.
Quoting 79. Sandy82579:

So I just went to Wikipedia and the highest recorded temperature in Kuwait was 54.4 Celsius or 129.9 deg. F. So clearly this article is in error and the temperature in Kuwait today was not a record. I would hope that the author would do a better job checking before making these "Chicken Little" claims.
Great comment, I really needed that laugh! wait, what?
You should go back to golf; this is a tropical-weather blog and there are a lot of folks on here who deeply care about our environment...if you're going to bring up "politics," stick with global warming, the impacts of fracking, etc.
LoL


;-)
116. Tcwx2
I think that user said that before it put on the burst of convection, but now yes, it does look good. Watch out Hawaii!!
Quoting 109. MahFL:



Darby actually looks ok :


Quoting 110. cRRKampen:


The end of the world will never reach the media, which will obsess over some partly bared celebrity nipple as it happens. And so it is now.

This is, of course, it: the beginning of the end. This is the largest biomass of the world burning.
Corals seem to have passed a tipping point: they are still dying with El Niño gone and winter in AUS.

Thanks guys for destroying MY planet.

planet will never be destroyed
no matter how filthy the biomass gets
nature will clean it right back up
even if it needs to be wiped clean
and begin again

48 hours out
Quoting 116. Tcwx2:

I think that user said that before it put on the burst of convection, but now yes, it does look good. Watch out Hawaii!!
Apparently that person cannot read time stamps that are clearly under our usernames.It's not hard actually.....Buuuut when you like stroking your ego and always trying to up someone that's what happens.....
Quoting 117. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

planet will never be destroyed
no matter how filthy the biomass gets
nature will clean it right back up
even if it needs to be wiped clean
and begin again


Well said!
122. Tcwx2
Who thinks the curse of the I's will continue this hurricane season? Once the next name on the list is Ian, watch out because it'll be the worst storm of the season, haha.
12z GFS running let's see if it remains consistent. And, one more thing, I have a question: What time(s) does the NHC put out their 2 and 5 day Graphical Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlooks?
123. xcool
lady and gentlemen Atlantic ticking time bomb
Quoting 110. cRRKampen:


The end of the world will never reach the media, which will obsess over some partly bared celebrity nipple as it happens. And so it is now.

This is, of course, it: the beginning of the end. This is the largest biomass of the world burning.
Corals seem to have passed a tipping point: they are still dying with El Niño gone and winter in AUS.

Thanks guys for destroying MY planet.


Your planet? Boy that's not narcissistic at all.
126. Tcwx2
Sorry ;(, it's hard to see on this small phone.
Quoting 119. washingtonian115:

Apparently that person cannot read time stamps that are clearly under our usernames.It's not hard actually.....Buuuut when you like stroking your ego and always trying to up someone that's what happens.....
Quoting 99. Sfloridacat5:



Professors specifically tell you NOT to use Wiki as a reference. But I use it when I'm just fishing for quick information on something.


Yes I don't see why we need so much controversy about Wikipedia. Its a great starting point for research which may have been the creator's original intent. An outline about a country or religion at least prepares someone with ideas on how to attack a problem or research something. I use it all the time for work and have never been burned because the information was incorrect, because I don't need to go with specifics from the website, just the relevant topics.
Quoting 122. Tcwx2:

Who thinks the curse of the I's will continue this hurricane season? Once the next name on the list is Ian, watch out because it'll be the worst storm of the season, haha.
12z GFS running let's see if it remains consistent. And, one more thing, I have a question: What time(s) does the NHC put out their 2 and 5 day Graphical Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlooks?
2pm, 8pm, 2am, and 8am EST.
Easterly ground swell for the Hawaiian Islands...a relatively rare swell direction. Secret surf spots will be lighting up. Lucky dogs.

Quoting 121. Patrap:


Quoting 122. Tcwx2:

Who thinks the curse of the I's will continue this hurricane season? Once the next name on the list is Ian, watch out because it'll be the worst storm of the season, haha.
12z GFS running let's see if it remains consistent. And, one more thing, I have a question: What time(s) does the NHC put out their 2 and 5 day Graphical Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlooks?

2am, 8am, 2pm, 8 pm (EDT).
I had no idea there was an army airfield at this elevation in Hawaii.

Current conditions at
Bradshaw Army Air Field / Hawaii (PHSF)
Lat: 19.78NLon: 155.55WElev: 6191ft.

Fair
49F
9C
Humidity 66%
Wind Speed SE 5 mph
Barometer 30.27 in (1013.6 mb)
Dewpoint 38F (3C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Wind Chill 47F (8C)
Last update 22 Jul 4:56 am HST
96 hours
133. Tcwx2
Thank you!!!
Quoting 130. tiggerhurricanes2001:


2am, 8am, 2pm, 8 pm (EDT).
134. MahFL
TS Darby is forecast to get within 23nm of Hilo, Hawaii.
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport

Date:

12:00 PM EDT Friday 22 July 2016
Temperature:

90.3°F

Dewpoint:

64.0°F

Humidity:

41%

Wind:

W 17 gust 24 mph

Humidex:

101
The low that follows the 1014 low in the MDR looks to have a nicer environment in front of it for development.

Although some of us are eager to see a storm there are those of us who don't want to become "storm weary"either. The season will do what it must, just don't get caught with a certain piece of your clothing down😀
Night be a nice little wrap around behind my old house on North Beach on K-Bay - ah the good old days!

Quoting 129. HaoleboySurfEC:

Easterly ground swell for the Hawaiian Islands...a relatively rare swell direction. Secret surf spots will be lighting up. Lucky dogs.


Quoting 127. Snacker2:



Yes I don't see why we need so much controversy about Wikipedia. Its a great starting point for research which may have been the creator's original intent. An outline about a country or religion at least prepares someone with ideas on how to attack a problem or research something. I use it all the time for work and have never been burned because the information was incorrect, because I don't need to go with specifics from the website, just the relevant topics.

I find that it can be a good source for reference links to fish oil sources.
120 hrs.
Quoting 133. Tcwx2:

Thank you!!!

ur welcome. Then, in November i think it changes to 1am , 7am, 1 pm, 7pm (EST).

@MJVentrice while the AEW is important, the environment over the east Atlantic trumps it eventually, no?

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 3h3 hours ago
@EricBlake12 Environment is important and we are likely a go via intraseasonal state but the AEW the GFS is spinning up hasn't developed yet

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 3h3 hours ago
@MJVentrice is it existence or structure of the wave that is most concerning to you?

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 3h3 hours ago
@EricBlake12 existence. I want to see the wave be initialized in the model rather than being purely based off parameterizations

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 3h3 hours ago
@MJVentrice hmm. I'd say structure myself. The wave is in the Ec/gfs fields along 15e now. How the wave amplifies is more challenging to me
Lol, Lanikai going off. Seen it only a couple of times. Some of those breaks on the NE side of island....

Quoting 138. FarmerKarl:

Night be a nice little wrap around behind my old house on North Beach on K-Bay - ah the good old days!


Quoting 141. tiggerhurricanes2001:


ur welcome. Then, in November i think it changes to 1am , 7am, 1 pm, 7pm (EST).
with the fall back time change it switches up
Looks weak on this run...but some slight development
146. Tcwx2

Dry air is almost the same as it was on the last run, don't know why it doesn't strengthen as much this time.
Looks dead at 162 hours.
148. JRRP
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue
One out of 51-ensemble members has tropical wave off of Africa developing into a storm. 2% chance in 6-days
Quoting 146. Tcwx2:


Dry air is almost the same as it was on the last run, don't know why it doesn't strengthen as much this time.

I wonder if the "GFS dropping storms before they develop" is true...I remember with Bonnie and Danielle, it didn't show much development of either storm for a few runs about 5 days out.
150. Tcwx2
I guess it's a "wait and see" situation.
Quoting 149. HurricaneFan:


I wonder if the "GFS dropping storms before they develop" is true...I remember with Bonnie and Danielle, it didn't show much development of either storm for a few runs about 5 days out.
Wave gets blasted by SAL.
On the current heat issues across parts of the US and in the Middle East, many mets are noting this is this result of high pressure "blocking" patterns in place at the moment. Can someone who understands this chart better than me (or Dr. Masters or Mr. Henson) advise if this current GFS jet stream chart reflects some of that issue? Seems to me, if I am reading this correctly, are the "straight line" patterns in the jet to the North of the US and North of the Middle East in this chart reflective of that blocking pattern issue? Thanks in advance for the potential answer.



Quoting 149. HurricaneFan:


I wonder if the "GFS dropping storms before they develop" is true...I remember with Bonnie and Danielle, it didn't show much development of either storm for a few runs about 5 days out.
Lately that has seemed to be the thing.
Looks like the GFS has not made up its mind in terms of the strength and position of the High in the Atlantic..If its to strong it Kills the wave or limits its development..If its weak looks like it stands a better chance of development..
156. Tcwx2

Well, at least it remains in tact.
Quoting 156. Tcwx2:


Well, at least it remains in tact.
Can't wait to observe the Spaghetti and Intensity Models.
Quoting 156. Tcwx2:


Well, at least it remains in tact.
Quoting 111. Climate175:

A yellow crayon appears very imminent.


Actually, I don't think it'll get any crayons at all.

WU and NWS are onboard with this forecast for today. Currently 83.5F
Record Report

Issued: 4:20 PM CDT Jul. 21, 2016 – National Weather Service

... Record high temperature set at New Orleans International Airport...

a record high temperature of 99 degrees was set at New Orleans today.
This breaks the old record of 97 set in 2008.
Quoting 160. 62901IL:



Actually, I don't think it'll get any crayons at all.

Probably not today, but maybe later.
Boomers should keep us out the record book today.



Quoting 124. VAbeachhurricanes:



Your planet? Boy that's not narcissistic at all.

I annexed it. I used to call it the wrong planet, of course.
Quoting 117. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


planet will never be destroyed
no matter how filthy the biomass gets
nature will clean it right back up
even if it needs to be wiped clean
and begin again

I only care for humanity.

(protip: this covers most of the rest).
That TW coming off Africa looks good.
With this heat upcoming this weekend, I am starting to get happy that we only got one more full month of Summer to go before Fall arrives.
Quoting 168. unknowncomic:

That TW coming off Africa looks good.

OMG so much dry air over the MDR.
Quoting 168. unknowncomic:

That TW coming off Africa looks good.



You realise a 364hr computer model has about 1% chance of coming true right?

Blowoff from dissipating Estelle coming across the California coast producing some high clouds from the Bay Area south this AM. Upper low well to the west cutting off, but also dipping southward, though not much eastward. Desert monsoon still holding with little westward motion past the Colorado River.
Quoting 129. HaoleboySurfEC:

Easterly ground swell for the Hawaiian Islands...a relatively rare swell direction. Secret surf spots will be lighting up. Lucky dogs.




Last Monday/Tuesday were amazing here on the east side of Kaua'i! Triple overhead plus and light offshore west winds. Doesn't happen often!
La nina?

Quoting 175. Gearsts:

La nina?



This part of the Pacific remains above normal, but southward closer to the equator, SSTs are cooler, which I think may have something to do with the spate of EPac storms, altho certainly not the whole story. The warm zone between cooler waters north and south is a "channel" for warm moist airflow between the air masses subsiding over the relatively cooler areas.
177. Tcwx2
That is 30 hours later than my original post though. Uhhh, I hate boring weather days.
Quoting 159. Gearsts:


On the KuwaitMet app, Mitribah's all time high is shown as 54.4 C (129.9F) set on July 16th, 2010.
Look at all that dry air across the Atlantic in July 2005. I bet the season was a total bust. Sad!


Darby headed in for a direct hit on the entire Hawaiian chain. SSTs gradually increase to the west, with 28 C water west of the islands, though forecast higher shear is supposed to keep the storm below hurricane status. Torrential rain coming, which will be much worse if the storm stalls and turns over the islands as some forecast models predict.

Interesting to see the wave in the disrupted ITCZ, with Darby at the tip end.
181. JRRP
lol GFS Ensembles 12z stronger than 06z
Well, If that's not telling you something.
Quoting 148. JRRP:

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue
One out of 51-ensemble members has tropical wave off of Africa developing into a storm. 2% chance in 6-days
Quoting 178. CloverdaleE:

On the KuwaitMet app, Mitribah's all time high is shown as 54.4 C (129.9F) set on July 16th, 2010.

I could find the figure nowhere when I followed the two links in the Wiki re Kuwait/climate.
Apparently C. Burt didn't come across it anywhere.
Forthcoming post will adress it all, I guess.
Quoting 179. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Look at all that dry air across the Atlantic in July 2005. I bet the season was a total bust. Sad!



Nah. Things will start cooking by late August. The dynamics behind the dry air will abate just as the pressure cooker is maxing out, as per the norm.
Quoting 180. BayFog:


Darby headed in for a direct hit on the entire Hawaiian chain. SSTs gradually increase to the west, with 28 C water west of the islands, though forecast higher shear is supposed to keep the storm below hurricane status. Torrential rain coming, which will be much worse if the storm stalls and turns over the islands as some forecast models predict.

Interesting to see the wave in the disrupted ITCZ, with Darby at the tip end.

Wow, might even blink an eye for a moment.
Quoting 162. Patrap:

Record Report

Issued: 4:20 PM CDT Jul. 21, 2016 – National Weather Service

... Record high temperature set at New Orleans International Airport...

a record high temperature of 99 degrees was set at New Orleans today.
This breaks the old record of 97 set in 2008.



Along with dew point of 76°, yuck.
Not surprised.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 221731
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brennan
Quoting 181. JRRP:

lol GFS Ensembles 12z stronger than 06z


Quoting 179. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Look at all that dry air across the Atlantic in July 2005. I bet the season was a total bust. Sad!


That is an interesting image, do you have the link for that?
Quoting 188. HurricaneFan:

Not surprised.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 221731
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

Yea.
Afternoon all .... getting a rather decent little rain shower atm ... not surprised to see it since it's been mostly cloudy for much of the day.



Based on this from TAFB, I guess we can continue to expect unsettled wx for the rest of the afternoon and evening ...

An upper-level trough dips
south over the the far west Atlantic between 70W-80W supporting a
frontal system and surface low just north of the discussion area.
A surface trough precedes these features extending from 30N60W
to 28N71W. Scattered moderate convection and thunderstorms are
from 26N to 31N between 66W and 77W.
Quoting 190. Climate175:

That is an interesting image, do you have the link for that?

Link

Link
Quoting 179. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Look at all that dry air across the Atlantic in July 2005. I bet the season was a total bust. Sad!




Yet we had 5 named storms in July that year. Conditions were definitely more favorable in 2005.
Quoting 194. Sfloridacat5:



Yet we had 5 named storms in July that year. Conditions were definitely more favorable in 2005.

Alright, so go back one year to 2004.



Seasonal count to date then: 0-0-0
A little warm here in Fort Myers.
But I can hear thunder rumbling in the distance so hopefully we'll get some relief soon.

Fort Myers, FL
Page Field | Report | Change Station
Report Station
Elev 20 ft 26.58 °N, 81.86 °W | Updated 16 sec ago
91.6 °F
Feels Like 106 °F
Quoting 195. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Alright, so go back one year to 2004.



Seasonal count to date then: 0-0-0


2004 looks more favorable than 2005. Not sure those maps are telling the whole story.
Quoting 197. Sfloridacat5:



2004 looks more favorable than 2005. Not sure those maps are telling the whole story.

That's exactly my point. Dry air across the basin in July doesn't tell the whole story because dry air in July is completely normal, even in hyperactive years. It's certainly not a sign the season is a bust.
July averages about 1 named storm so it's not a big deal for it to be dead now. Now if we're still not seeing any action when we move into August, we'll have to re-evaluate the season.
But I still believe the season will end up slightly above average.
Very active sea breeze setup today. Storms are slow movers compared to the fast moving storms we've had for the past couple weeks.
These slow movers (stationary) should put down significant rainfall totals.
Quoting 109. MahFL:



Darby actually looks ok :


Just amazing to see a TC approaching Hawaii from this direction - again.

Quoting 197. Sfloridacat5:



2004 looks more favorable than 2005. Not sure those maps are telling the whole story.
That's the point. There's more to cyclogenesis than just how much dust there is.
Quoting 198. TropicalAnalystwx13:


That's exactly my point. Dry air across the basin in July doesn't tell the whole story because dry air in July is completely normal, even in hyperactive years. It's certainly not a sign the season is a bust.
Darby is not well organized according to recon. They've found a minimum pressure of 1002mb so far, with the lowest pressure dislocated from the actual center. The wind flow around the center is on the order of 5kt or so.
Depressing for Atlantic lovers
Hi Folks, Guess it's time for me to make one of my rare posts and do my yearly "Hello" to everyone. Always a pleasure to see everyone. Thanks Doc, Thanks Bob for the many entries I have already read, and the many I will read this season. Praying for a quiet year in the Atlantic, but I fear that, from what little knowledge I have, that it may be a doozy. Take care my friends, and have a safe season.
Thank,
Bob
June and July 1992 were also dead quiet for the Atlantic until Andrew (initial depression status) formed on August 16th from a t-wave...
Quoting 198. TropicalAnalystwx13:


That's exactly my point. Dry air across the basin in July doesn't tell the whole story because dry air in July is completely normal, even in hyperactive years. It's certainly not a sign the season is a bust.
Have to disagree on that point.

The Atlantic has been well below normal with the vertical instability for the last 5 years. Is and issue even the experts are not sure about, is causing what i call a thump print of very dry air between Africa and the islands.
But i'm happy to have a discussion over this :D

Took me 10 mins to post this in a way everyone could understand.
Quoting 179. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Look at all that dry air across the Atlantic in July 2005. I bet the season was a total bust. Sad!




Four named storms before August begins and people say it's dead? Take their coats. No coats.
Quoting 207. Gearsts:

Have to disagree on that point.

The Atlantic has been well below normal with the vertical instability for the last 5 years. Is and issue even the experts are not sure about, is causing what i call a thump print of very dry air between Africa and the islands.
But i'm happy to have a discussion over this :D

Took me 10 mins to post this in a way everyone could understand.

Is the cause known for the lack of instability? Does it have something to do with the AMO?
1 Basrah Int. Airport (Iraq) 53.9 °C
2 Basrah-Hussen (Iraq) 53.8 °C

As I said earlier, 54 °C at 15h Local time was rounded number.
Quoting 207. Gearsts:

Have to disagree on that point.

The Atlantic has been well below normal with the vertical instability for the last 5 years. Is and issue even the experts are not sure about, is causing what i call a thump print of very dry air between Africa and the islands.
But i'm happy to have a discussion over this :D

Took me 10 mins to post this in a way everyone could understand.
I think that is also like the first time I have seen you make a post that long lol.
Sorry to be off topic. Don't we have members from Germany? Please check in so we know you are safe. Praying for all over there
Storms firing off right over my location. It sounds like a Civil War with cannons firing off back and forth.
Its normal for July
Okay so what about August and September of 2011,2012,2013 and 2014 where we still had dry air suppressing much of anything in the MDR? Where storms still struggled to amount to much until they were either in the western Atlantic or in the sub-tropics....No..it hasn't been just a "July" thing the last 5 years its been a ongoing theme for the entire seasons length.That is where people are getting at.The seasons leading up to and after 2005 (with the exception of the el nino years) saw healthy development in the MDR.Now we cant even get two clouds to puff up even in the most favorable months.
Quoting 214. washingtonian115:

Its normal for July
Okay so what about August and September of 2011,2012,2013 and 2014 where we still had dry air suppressing much of anything in the MDR? Where storms still struggled to amount to much until they were either in the western Atlantic or in the sub-tropics....No..it hasn't been just a "July" thing the last 5 years its been a ongoing theme for the entire seasons length.That is where people are getting at.The seasons leading up to and after 2005 (with the exception of the el nino years) saw healthy development in the MDR.Now we cant even get two clouds to puff up even in the most favorable months.


In those years, shear was not as favorable and ssts not as warm as this season. July is the quietest month, so it is time to chill out.

Also 2011 and 2012 both had 19 named storms. All some of us are saying is you will see your stronger storms develop closer to land, which makes this hurricane season even more dangerous than years past.
218. Kyon5
Quoting 217. Hurricanes101:



In those years, shear was not as favorable and ssts not as warm as this season. July is the quietest month, so it is time to chill out.

Also 2011 and 2012 both had 19 named storms. All some of us are saying is you will see your stronger storms develop closer to land, which makes this hurricane season even more dangerous than years past.
Exactly. We have to wait until August and September before jumping to conclusions saying the season is dead. Besides, even with dry air and shear over the past years we've seen storms that have defied the odds (Chantal, Bertha, Danny...) and some pretty formidable ones (Gonzalo and Joaquin.) As I've said before and I'll say it again, we have to be patient.
Quoting 217. Hurricanes101:



In those years, shear was not as favorable and ssts not as warm as this season. July is the quietest month, so it is time to chill out.

Also 2011 and 2012 both had 19 named storms. All some of us are saying is you will see your stronger storms develop closer to land, which makes this hurricane season even more dangerous than years past.

It seems like July has been less active than June in recent years.
Good garden soaker.

Picked up a quick .38 inch from er.

221. elioe
Quoting 212. downdabayou:

Sorry to be off topic. Don't we have members from Germany? Please check in so we know you are safe. Praying for all over there


If I remember correctly, I've seen one from Mainz and one from Berlin. None from München, or indeed anywhere in Bavaria. But very sad events indeed (again), my condolences.
I had a feeling we'd get some significant precipitation today. Very strong and slow moving storms.

Quoting 217. Hurricanes101:



In those years, shear was not as favorable and ssts not as warm as this season. July is the quietest month, so it is time to chill out.

Also 2011 and 2012 both had 19 named storms. All some of us are saying is you will see your stronger storms develop closer to land, which makes this hurricane season even more dangerous than years past.

And we don't even know if that is exclusively true yet either. Last year saw 5-2-1 in the Central/East Atlantic amid a record-breaking El Nino and neutral AMO.
Just saying I don't think it is ever going to rain again in WNY.
Every time they predict Thunderstorms they change their mind as the day approches
Quoting 188. HurricaneFan:

Not surprised.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 221731
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



A whole lotta nothing out there.
What do you think caused the hurricane explosion in the eastern pacific?
Quoting 221. elioe:



If I remember correctly, I've seen one from Mainz and one from Berlin. None from M%uFFFDnchen, or indeed anywhere in Bavaria. But very sad events indeed (again), my condolences.

Thanks, guys. I'm nowhere near Munich which is obviously in a complete lock-down right now. Prayers for all who have lost their lives, compassionate thoughts to those who are wounded and all the relatives and friends. Strength and good luck to the police which is hunting the (presumable) terrorists. Not many reliable news available right now. Hope this will end soon without more victims!
Quoting 226. 62901IL:



A whole lotta nothing out there.

I still wouldn't rule out the possibility of an eastern Atlantic TC next week. The GFS has dropped storms before they formed on a few occasions this year. In addition, the ensembles are still picking up on some slight development. I don't remember ECMWF showing Danielle until right before it formed. The eastern Atlantic does not have much dry air right now, due to the passing tropical waves. Also, a CCKW is expected to be in the region. This could allow for a weak spin-up just south of Cape Verde before the potential storm would encounter less favorable conditions, mainly dry air, in the western MDR. If something does develop, however, I expect it to remain weak.
Quoting 220. Patrap:

Good garden soaker.

Picked up a quick .38 inch from er.



lots of rumbling in the jungle out here Pat. Uptown got sum good gullywashers!
231. Tcwx2
Got a nice, heavy shower for a second straight day today. Toward the end we got decent gusts up to about 25mph. In an hours time I recorded measured rainfall of 2.1" and temps went from 95°F to 75°F. Hoping for the sun to come out and get some more t-storms, but that appears unlikely at this point. This was beneficial rainfall as Wednesday I had only recorded 2.2" for the month, where we average about 6.5". Have a good day everyone!
Oil Lobby Paid Washington Post and Atlantic to Host Climate-Change Deniers at RNC

At the award-winning seafood restaurant in downtown Cleveland that The Atlantic rented out for the entire four-day Republican National Convention, GOP Rep. Bill Johnson turned to me and explained that solar panels are not a viable energy source because “the sun goes down.”

Johnson had just stepped off the stage where he was one the two featured guests speaking at The Atlantic’s “cocktail caucus,” where restaurant staff served complimentary wine, cocktails, and “seafood towers” of shrimp, crab cakes, oysters, and mussels to delegates, guests, reporters and, of course, the people paying the bills.

The event was sponsored by the American Petroleum Institute, the lobbying arm of fossil fuel giants like ExxonMobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhilips.

Johnson, a climate denier and influential member of the House Committee on Energy and Commerce, spoke of a future when American scientists “solve these big problems” and “figure out how to harness the sun’s energy, and store it up, so that we can put it out over time.” His hypothetical invention, of course, is called a battery, and was invented over 200 years ago.


Link
233. Tcwx2
MJO and CCKW were the two main factors.
Quoting 227. Adam2001:

What do you think caused the hurricane explosion in the eastern pacific?
Quoting 169. Climate175:

With this heat upcoming this weekend, I am starting to get happy that we only got one more full month of Summer to go before Fall arrives.


Autumn in the Mid Atlantic is by far my favorite season. Encouraging pic. Looking forward to splitting wood then sitting by the woodstove surrounded by dogs, cats and spouse, burning it.
Quoting 227. Adam2001:

What do you think caused the hurricane explosion in the eastern pacific?



Quoting 232. RobertWC:

Oil Lobby Paid Washington Post and Atlantic to Host Climate-Change Deniers at RNC

At the award-winning seafood restaurant in downtown Cleveland that The Atlantic rented out for the entire four-day Republican National Convention, GOP Rep. Bill Johnson turned to me and explained that solar panels are not a viable energy source because “the sun goes down.”

Johnson had just stepped off the stage where he was one the two featured guests speaking at The Atlantic’s “cocktail caucus,” where restaurant staff served complimentary wine, cocktails, and “seafood towers” of shrimp, crab cakes, oysters, and mussels to delegates, guests, reporters and, of course, the people paying the bills.

The event was sponsored by the American Petroleum Institute, the lobbying arm of fossil fuel giants like ExxonMobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhilips.

Johnson, a climate denier and influential member of the House Committee on Energy and Commerce, spoke of a future when American scientists “solve these big problems” and “figure out how to harness the sun’s energy, and store it up, so that we can put it out over time.” His hypothetical invention, of course, is called a battery, and was invented over 200 years ago.


Link


Batteries were invented by the ancient Sumerians and used for electroplating.
Quoting 220. Patrap:

Good garden soaker.

Picked up a quick .38 inch from er.



Pat do you see that line coming from Mississippi? You think it'll make it here by us? It looks really bad
The 18z GFS may be crucial to see if we get a yellow crayon from the NHC tonight. I doubt we will, but if the 18z GFS shows some development in just 5 days, we just might see the yellow circle drawn.
Been a fun week here in Northern Maine...a Tornado in Caribou/Woodland Maine a few days back (which have become increasingly common up here over the past 5 or 6 years)

And just had a collection of impressive lightning storms roll through just south of there....Havent seen a week like this in a while.
Quoting 234. georgevandenberghe:



Autumn in the Mid Atlantic is by far my favorite season. Encouraging pic. Looking forward to splitting wood then sitting by the woodstove surrounded by dogs, cats and spouse, burning it.
sitting by the woodstove surrounded by dogs, cats and spouse,not entirely in that order.
Quoting 242. HurricaneFan:


GFS should start pumping out TC at the long range like crazy ;)
Quoting 243. Gearsts:

GFS should start pumping out TC at the long range like crazy ;)
There is a large and powerful wave over Central Africa..Should be interesting a week or so out.

Compassionate thoughts to those affected by the Munich lockdown and by this latest attack in Germany, especially to the wounded and the victims' relatives. I too hope they'll catch the mad ones fast enough to prevent further bloodshed. I'm struggling to understand what just happened, reliable news are sparse. The local police should add more informations within a few minutes though, maybe we'll get a clearer picture then.

99.9F here, same as yesterday.
247. Tcwx2
Be prepared for more ghost storms and maybe real storms as well.
Quoting 242. HurricaneFan:


I hope there's a good Atlantic hurricane to track soon. I hate it when the hurricane season waits till school to get active.
Quoting 242. HurricaneFan:

I'm kind of cautious.
The seafood sounds great! Please give up the global warming crap....it's a weather blog...ty
Quoting 250. Tampa969mlb:

The seafood sounds great! Please give up the global warming crap....it's a weather blog...ty


release the hounds...
Quoting 248. weathergirl2001:

I hope there's a good Atlantic hurricane to track soon. I hate it when the hurricane season waits till school to get active.

not just that the Olympics and football season too. That really ticks me off!
Here comes the train effect!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Have a safe weather weekend; had a busy PM and just became aware of the incident in Munich. Bummer start to this weekend and prayers for the fallen and their families. See Yall next week.
Quoting 248. weathergirl2001:

I hope there's a good Atlantic hurricane to track soon. I hate it when the hurricane season waits till school to get active.


Ohh...wait until August when the SAL diminishes. Those are healthy lows coming off Africa and they can only get healthier in a few weeks.

This set up for this hurricane seaon is not good at all for the Carib/Bahamas/SE USA.

Please be prepared.
Quoting 227. Adam2001:

What do you think caused the hurricane explosion in the eastern pacific?


climatology

July is usually an active month in the EPAC
Ah .... beautiful.... temp here has dropped from 93 at 3 p.m. to 77 now ... feels positively refreshing outside ....


And here's the reason why .... :o)
Quoting 258. BahaHurican:

Ah .... beautiful.... temp here has dropped from 93 at 3 p.m. to 77 now ... feels positively refreshing outside ....


And here's the reason why .... :o)
sounds good baha still feels like 99 here with heat index air temp as per my pws is 93.1
Quoting 219. HurricaneFan:


It seems like July has been less active than June in recent years.
Speaking as a resident of the most hurricane prone region in the basin based on climatology, July is really not an active month. There's a reason why the old adage has the line "July stand by"; storms in July are just not that common. We've had the stats posted here, but people are still acting as if July numbers are in any way predictive of what will happen in the rest of the season.

The comments about instability are valid as far as that goes. But just about everybody who's talked about numbers for this season has also mentioned that they don't expect an uptick in MDR development over previous years. Basically we've been expecting "nuttin" in the MDR, with storms, as they did in 2005, developing as they approached 55W. So far there's been nothing to change the validity of this thinking.
261. JakeJ
This strikes me as one more example of the global warming alarmists trying to re-write the temperature record in an attempt to "prove" a falsehood, which is that human activity is causing the earth to experience new record highs. It's not true, but when facts contradict faith, a zealot will always choose faith -- especially when his paycheck or research grant (same thing) depends on it.
Quoting 261. JakeJ:

This strikes me as one more example of the global warming alarmists trying to re-write the temperature record in an attempt to "prove" a falsehood, which is that human activity is causing the earth to experience new record highs. It's not true, but when facts contradict faith, a zealot will always choose faith -- especially when his paycheck or research grant (same thing) depends on it.
Oh, you poor little thing! It seems you seem to have posted your vacuous comment in the wrong forum. Worn-out anti-science conspiracy theories aren't welcomed here, but you'll find a home for them way down on the right...the *far* right.
263. vis0
keepeerofthegatess...

title of aniGIF is :: "Faster Faster till were F----D - cause we passed the buck"

i remember a once proud GOOD nation that had a motto like "The buck stops here" cause they took charge in doing good to set an example to their youngins AND  rest of humanity ...i wonder what ever happened to that nation?

BTW when skeptic$ re-post this comment make sure you include that science understands they'll be a few cooler areas or cooler periods WHEN COMPARED to the NEW warmer atmosphere, BUT AS A WHOLE and as a LONG TERM TREND ITS GETTING WARMER not cooler. If you do not include this you are PURPOSELY deceiving your fellow man
I am located in Kuwait. Its common knowledge here that on some days the temperature was well above 54 degree Celsius... Some say on this day it was 61 degrees. Last year even in some parts of the deserts it was 58 degree Celsius.

So your report is not reliable at 54 degrees to say the least when it was surely far above. It sounds like a joke.