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WU Personal Weather Stations Are Now 200,000+ Strong

By: Bob Henson 2:42 PM GMT on July 21, 2016

For more than a decade, individuals across the United States have been collecting weather data from their houses and backyards using personal weather stations (PWSs), and sharing their data with the world via Weather Underground. Data from the WU PWS Network, which was launched in 2001, can be found in a variety of formats on the WU website and WU apps. Over the last several years, the WU PWS Network been growing by leaps and bounds, both in numbers and geographic spread. From around 30,000 stations in 2013, mostly in the United States, the WU PWS Network has now grown to include four continents and 195 nations--and we are delighted to announce that it recently passed a major milestone: 200,000 stations! Not only is this the largest PWS Network on Earth, it is also one of the world’s biggest Internet of Things (IoT) platforms. (IoT refers to groups of interconnected objects that can exchange data.)

Observations from the WU PWS Network are combined with atmospheric data collected from 40 million smartphones monthly (barometric pressure and sky/hazard reports) as well as from 50,000 flights per day, all feeding into WU’s forecast engine. Together, they help improve and refine the hyperlocal forecasts that are a WU hallmark.



More than 100 personal weather stations going to critical locations
The Weather Company, an IBM Business (of which WU is a subsidiary) announced today that WU will partner with meteorological, government, and nonprofit organizations to furnish hundreds of PWSs at key locations in Africa, Asia, and South America. The plan is to leverage the benefits of PWS Networks and IoT technology to help advance local economies, build resilience, and improve forecast technology.

--As part of IBM’s philanthropic Smarter Cities Challenge program, WU will be donating up to 100 PWSs this calendar year for deployment in Santiago, Chile, and Visakhapatnam (Vizag), India. Both cities have at least 5 million residents in their metropolitan areas, and each has its own weather-related issues:

Santiago: flooding and landslides due to heavy rainfall; potential wildfires during hot, dry, windy weather
Vizag: heavy monsoon rains each summer, along with the risk of tropical cyclones from the Bay of Bengal

The Smarter Cities Challenge sends teams of top IBM experts for three-week deployments to help cities around the world address their most critical challenges and operate more smartly and effectively. The two cities above were chosen for the PWS deployment in order to maximize the potential benefit as a function of population density, web connectivity, and current infrastructure gaps.

--In partnership with the Oregon-based nonprofit TAHMO (Trans-African HydroMeteorological Observatory), more than 300 PWSs will be deployed across Nigeria, Kenya, and various other African nations where traditional observing networks are sparse and expensive to maintain As these new stations come online, IBM and TWC researchers will assess how much each PWS helps to improve forecast accuracy. In addition, the station data will be incorporated by IBM’s Watson IoT platform for use in precision agriculture (e.g., optimizing the use of water and fertilizer) and other areas. The focus of TAHMO is on building a dense network of hydrometeorological observations across the sparsely-sampled African continent.


Figure 1. Visag, India (top) and Santiago, Chile (bottom). Image credits: Av9/Wikimedia Commons (Visag), Javmoraga/Wikimedia Commons (Santiago).

A win-win-win: local economies, societal resilience, and IoT science
The PWS donations above will provide much-needed data that can serve society in a variety of ways: informing crop growing and harvesting, optimizing critical resource management, providing advance notice of extreme weather, and much more. Local business should benefit as well, through the ability to leverage weather data to improve decision-making support and expand weather-sensitive industries. The donations will also serve as a test bed for exploring the combined power of the PWS Network and Watson IoT technology, which aims to blend cognitive science and interconnected data across a wide spectrum of disciplines.

“The private sector, including companies such as Weather Underground and The Weather Company, has played a useful role in the delivery of weather forecasts,” said Christian Blondin, head of cabinet of the secretary-general and director, external relations, World Meteorological Organization. “We welcome the role of such private sector companies in the provision of selected value-added services in complement of the services provided by national meteorological and hydrometeorological services around the world."

For more details on this initiative, see the press release.

Bob Henson



Wunderground News

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Mr. Henson!
Darby is still hanging in there this morning, and is certainly eyeing at a graze of Hawaii. Interests there should monitor the progress of this long lived cyclone.


Quoting 3. HurricaneFan:


Ready to see the 12z GFS with the ensembles looking interesting in the last few runs.
Thanks for the new post Mr Henson! A warm week in Soo Cal is ongoing and expected to last into next week with maybe some minor cooling then.
From the previous blog
Massive dry air in the MDR
">
nice update and acknowledgement thanks

Weather Underground PWS IONTORON23
test
The three cities above were chosen for the PWS deployment in order to maximize the potential benefit as a function of population density, web connectivity, and current infrastructure gaps.

Funny, I only see two cities listed...
test
Thanks Mr. Henson...I am always amazed at how far tech has come in 25 years...I remember reading 1960,s Dick Tracy comics with his recently upgraded Radio TV watch ( it was just a two way radio from 1931 to 1964 ) and how that would likely never happen in real life....here it is and does way more than Dick,s...
13. JRRP
ensembles 06z GFS showing more interesting scenario than 00z
for example ensembles 3,5,10,12
unable
the WU PWS Network has now grown to include four continents and 195 nations

Sure looks like six continents to me, Africa and Asia are under served but there is presence.
and the site is toast again.....
Does anyone else find this funny? I happened to read this blog post on a browser that I don't normally use. I wasn't logged in, so I got the sidebar ads, one of which was for a personal weather station available on Amazon. Great job with the targeted ad - except that when I clicked on it, Amazon said it was out of stock and they didn't know when, if ever, it would be available. Yay Amazon!!
test
very cool...congrats Doc...
Quoting 3. HurricaneFan:





That's a lot of High Pressure if we get a CV storm I think it would funnel it toward the US.
We need to issue a suicide watch for the blog, the last GFS run dropped the hurricane at 300+ hours. I wonder when people will begin to realize that most storms forecast at more then 250 hours are usually dropped, probably never.
23. IDTH
Quoting 616. VAbeachhurricanes:

La Nina is strengthening and the warm PDO signal is not nearly as robust as last month, it will be interesting to see if this trend continues into the peak of the season.



Nino regions 1 and 2 have had warming occur over the past few weeks but nino region 3.4 is already at -1.0.
.
Thanks Mr. Henson. That is an awesome project. I have been dying to get a personal station to join the network but I live on a very wooded property, with tall trees and oaks, and at this point the entire yard and the house are completely under a canopy of trees (you cannot see the house or yard underneath the growth from Google Earth). It keeps the house and yard relatively cool in the summer, and the shade is great, but would not be a good place for a weather station for an accurate reading on actual temps and/or rainfall which is intercepted on the way down by the canopy.

Here are the updated highs again for Conus this afternoon and today's drought index................Hot Hot Hot and Dry Dry Dry in many places..................


Current U.S. Drought Monitor

Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database

Any news on the blog name change?
12z GFS has just begun, let's see.
Thanks Bob. What a perfect update in this election year time of everyone hating everyone. Evidently we can work together for some common good. Who knew...
The 12z is running.I'm looking to see if the GFS continues to disagree with its ensembles or will it finally fall into agreement with them.Again the track is not set in stone because we don't even have a invest yet.
Quoting 13. JRRP:

ensembles 06z GFS showing more interesting scenario than 00z
for example ensembles 3,5,10,12
link?
31. JRRP
Quoting 30. Gearsts:

link?

Link
ensemble 8 es un crusero por el caribe

Look at that huge plume of moisture coming off of Africa at 20°N-30°N eating away the dry air! You can definitely tell this is the strongest wave(s) so far as well.
..nuttin'






Quoting 34. Gearsts:


They want to take it closer to the Lesser Antilles, you actually have a split once it get's near there.
With such an active Pacific, is not a surprise the Atlantic is so peaceful. Things should change a bit by mid August, if climatology is on schedule and behave normally this year....
For entertainment purposes only
Unfortunately that could be a very real scenario at some point in 2016.

One could keep hoping for recurve, but I still remember Katrina in 2005 when it became apparent when she was not going to turn and headed into the GOM. My stomach just knotted. We have a similar steering set up possible in 2016.

Quoting 37. washingtonian115:

For entertainment purposes only

114 hrs.
Quoting 37. washingtonian115:

For entertainment purposes only



poor FL
41. IDTH
Quoting 37. washingtonian115:

For entertainment purposes only


Hahaha! oh man I hope that ensembles scenario doesn't happen, that'd be like a going away storm before I leave for college.
Energy Firm to pay $61 MILLION penalty for costliest inland oil spill in US history...

"Enbridge Energy Partners will pay a $61 million penalty for the costliest inland oil spill in U.S. history -- a pipeline rupture in southwestern Michigan that polluted a nearly 40-mile stretch of the Kalamazoo River, federal officials said Wednesday."



What's depressing is the comment section in the article...
Nothing but the crooked EPA and the poor ole Oil Companies.
I have very little hope going forward, it's just sad how ignorant we have become as a species.
You'll be seeing a lot more stories just like this if a certain political platform is elected into office...

This is starting to look like a more gradual developer and not a quick one.
44. IDTH
Quoting 37. washingtonian115:

For entertainment purposes only


Ensemble 5 also shows almost the same exact scenario with a little bit different high pressure. Just for those who can take this out of proportion, this is for entertainment purposes as it is way out in time on this ensemble model.

Quoting 37. washingtonian115:

For entertainment purposes only



accomplished ! lol

Going to be interesting as to what effect the Eastern Atlantic MDR will have on these systems. I think the models are overdoing the intensity of this system in it's early stages.

We may not get a dozen total systems this year, but boy if any make it past the Lesser Antilles, look out.
46. IDTH
I think this is the most I've ever seen anyone on the blog post ensembles.

Hurricane season 2016: Ensemble edition
168 hrs.
Ok, so this time it develops at 30W rather than 20W, and a more steady development.
Looks like the GFS has dropped development.
198 hrs.
The 12z GFS still shows a vigorous wave but explicitly dropped development this run.

*cue help4u*
Like PedleyCA, I'm also wondering about the 3 cities and 4 continents; can anyone clarify?
53. IDTH
Can anyone drop a link to where I can find the MJO's update models forecasts?
Quoting 22. pipelines:

We need to issue a suicide watch for the blog, the last GFS run dropped the hurricane at 300+ hours. I wonder when people will begin to realize that most storms forecast at more then 250 hours are usually dropped, probably never.
Every semi-serious blogger here understands that the long range forecasts are mere fickle fantasy. If it's a slow day, no harm in wish-casting imo.
Quoting 37. washingtonian115:

For entertainment purposes only

Unfortunately, this is a very possible scenario, with the way the High is setting up this year, sorry no private trough to save us from all the storms this year. From the Gulf Coast, Florida, The Caribbean, and most of the East Coast of the U.S., this could be a very bad year for a lot of people. The party is over for fish storms this year, be prepared, very prepared.
It looks like it is inching it's way westward slow but steady.
Quoting 51. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The 12z GFS still shows a vigorous wave but explicitly dropped development this run.

*cue help4u*



dont get him started please
240 hrs.
Quoting 54. JNFlori30A:

Every semi-serious blogger here understands that the long range forecasts are mere fickle fantasy. If it's a slow day, no harm in wish-casting imo.
And when most people post these things they put a disclaimer.I put *for entertainment purposes only* If that person complaining clearly cant see that then they are the ones with the problem.
Yea, this run is weak, and yet once again disagrees with the ensembles, we are no where near close to coming to a distinct conclusion that's for sure.

The Pacific Parade. At far left, ex-Celia is directly under an unseasonably strong upper level low which has taken on the appearance of a low latitude frontal system. Little Darby now appears headed directly for the Big Island of Hawaii and has managed to maintain a steady state over marginal SSTs and a surrounding dry environment, although it doesn't seem to be an annular storm. A closed anti-cyclone is presently directly over Hawaii. If Darby can slip under that, it could enhance, but the current forecast has that strong upper low dipping down just as Darby comes to the islands. Meanwhile, Estelle looks destined to dissipate over cool water. To the east, proto Frank and Georgette appear to be ramping up.
Gulf Doom of the day:
models are meant to be use for guidance purposes only things can and will change from run too run
It is still relatively cool for wave development in the Central Atlantic until you get closer to SA/Lesser Antilles. Between that and the very dry air along that 10N corridor out of Africa (and this wave is still below 10N at this juncture), not surprising that development had been dropped from the GFS for this particular wave IMHO (I cannot get inside the "brain" of the GFS)..............




Quoting 63. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

models are meant to be use for guidance purposes only


I'm happy using them for entertainment. Until there's consistency at 144h or so, I won't put my coffee down to take a real look at what's going on.
66. JRRP
GFS in line with the EURO


Unseasonably energetic upper low digging off the West Coast just as Estelle is unwinding to its southeast. No indication in the forecast yet of any interaction, but we shall see. The overall upper flow appears to be hanging up as that large high pressure dome of warm air takes hold over the CONUS.
All kinda high pressure......let's see how things look in a few weeks.
soon this blog will turn in too this



why waiting for a storm
Apart from any specific doom scenarios, crayons may be imminent.

We'll have to see if the 18z develops the wave or if the weaker scenario is a trend.The ensembles are still insistent on something developing.
Well at least we should have something to track next week and into august..Looks like this forcasted wave should bring the long awaited pattern change in the atlantic
Quoting 62. elioe:

Gulf Doom of the day:




"This is not the storm you're looking for....



Latest GFS seems more logical. Waves that POOF, yet lasting longer and paving the way. MDR should be ripe for action mid August.
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport

Date:

1:00 PM EDT Thursday 21 July 2016
Temperature:

88.7°F

Dewpoint:

63.1°F

Humidity:

42%

Wind:

WSW 13 mph

Humidex:

99
Not surprising with so much dry air.
Just make sure you have Shasta on ice from mid August until the end of September.
90 F at this hour in Chicago with a dewpoint of 76 F ! Strong thunderstorms moving across the lake currently in the peripheral flow around the building high pressure dome to the southwest.
The ensembles are still insistent that something is going to develop.So although the operational may not be showing a storm it has not been completely dropped off the radar.We need a invest first and foremost.
81. JRRP
Quoting 80. washingtonian115:

The ensembles are still insistent that something is gong to develop.So although the operational may not be showing a storm it has not been completely dropped off the radar.We need a invest first and foremost.

yeah but weaker
Quoting 64. weathermanwannabe:

It is still relatively cool for wave development in the Central Atlantic until you get closer to SA/Lesser Antilles. Between that and the very dry air along that 10N corridor out of Africa (and this wave is still below 10N at this juncture), not surprising that development had been dropped from the GFS for this particular wave IMHO (I cannot get inside the "brain" of the GFS)..............







Someone may have referenced this before on that subject....heh heh...


Quoting 55. NativeSun:

Unfortunately, this is a very possible scenario, with the way the High is setting up this year, sorry no private trough to save us from all the storms this year. From the Gulf Coast, Florida, The Caribbean, and most of the East Coast of the U.S., this could be a very bad year for a lot of people. The party is over for fish storms this year, be prepared, very prepared.


High + extreme SSTs and best content. So if it is near land it will probably be on rocket fuel.
Quoting 82. ILwthrfan:



Someone may have referenced this before on that subject....heh heh...



Really need yellow color 28 plus.
dewpoints are in the 80's in Illinoise!
Quoting 86. weatherbro:

dewpoints are in the 80's in Illinoise!


Yes it sucks....................a lot. :(
Dear fellows of wu, and damsels too...
If you have not already done so, you may want to take a look at Steve Gregory's July 20, 2016 wu blog, "Heat wave to abate next week as La Nina shows itself" especially the section, "Tropical Atlantic becoming primed for action."
when was the last time storm in the E PAC skip TD and went right to a storm


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU JUL 21 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Estelle, located more than 1100 miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

Satellite wind data show that the area of low pressure centered
about 300 miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, has a well-defined
center and is producing winds of tropical storm force. Shower and
thunderstorm activity has continued to become better organized, and
advisories will be initiated on this system as a tropical storm
this afternoon while it moves northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent

Shower and thunderstorm activity has become better organized this
morning in association with an area of low pressure located about
900 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. While environmental conditions are expected to be only
marginally conducive for additional development, only a slight
increase in organization would result in the formation of a tropical
depression later today while the system moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
A frog strangler in my neighborhood.


An area of strong thunderstorms will affect northeastern Lee
County...

At 159 PM EDT... strong thunderstorms were clustered over Lehigh
Acres... moving west at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cape Coral... Fort Myers... Lehigh Acres... Olga... Cypress Lake...
Pine Manor... Buckingham... east Dunbar... southwest Florida Airport...
Iona... palmona park... lochmoor Waterway Estates... Villas...
McGregor... Charleston park... Harlem Heights... San Carlos Park...
Three Oaks... Fort Myers Villas and Page Park.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms... and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
Meh
A small area of weak surface vorticity exists south of Key West, FL with a stronger pulse of 500mb vorticity to the southeast of Miami, FL. Wind shear is low and it is over high SSTs. This is a boiling situation that could explode, there is also a mid level spin to the convection southeast of Florida.
funny how the mood of this blog can change in between runs
Quoting 64. weathermanwannabe:

It is still relatively cool for wave development in the Central Atlantic until you get closer to SA/Lesser Antilles. Between that and the very dry air along that 10N corridor out of Africa (and this wave is still below 10N at this juncture), not surprising that development had been dropped from the GFS for this particular wave IMHO (I cannot get inside the "brain" of the GFS)..............







The buoy close to Africa in the MDR is not operational, but the Cape Verde Islands are reporting water temperatures in the upper 70s (80 furthest south). So the conditions are getting closer but not quite there yet for a fast spin up.

Link to Cape Verde Island water temperatures. Mostly 78-79 (80 degrees on the southern most Island).
Link
The blog right now.....
Quoting 93. Articuno:

funny how the mood of this blog can change in between runs
Happens every year :D
We are at 90° feels like 102° here in Chicago suburbs. Hot and humid.
We had 2.20" of rain two days ago, in about fifteen minutes, but the WU servers were not taking my comments.
This is the first time I have been able to get on since then. But now I have to go back to work.
I go out for a half hour, then I go back inside the air conditioned house to cool off for a half hour, then back out again. I'm working on one of the cars in the shade of a big Box elder tree. I'm a shade-tree mechanic. ;-p
I still think Earl will form late next week from an African wave. Just because the latest model runs now don't show much of anything doesn't mean that can't change again. And consider this: the El Nio is gone, water temps in the Atlantic are above average, wind shear is low, and the SAL though present in moderate amounts, is not as extreme as it was the previous three seasons, so there is nothing to make me think we won't at least get a named storm out of that wave that everyone has been talking about for next week. I see hardly any inhibiting factors.
Right at Noon and already 92.2 here, 95.6 at Indian Hills PWS and 99 at KRAL


Darby's doing well, wouldn't be surprised if next advisory it's at 70mph. Hawaii should watch out for a possible hurricane offshore.
we have FRANK 99E wins the race too get upgrade 1st

EP, 07, 2016072118, , BEST, 0, 145N, 1035W, 40, 1005, DB
Quoting 93. Articuno:

funny how the mood of this blog can change in between runs
I am just rolling.
Looking at satellite photos the past 3o mins ,there appears to be a weak circulation in the low cloud field, near 11N 21W associated with the EATL wave.
Depressing to see the GFS drop the CV storm. Not even the CMC shows it forming at this point. Looks like it maybe was a ghost storm after all. It still could develop but I'm lowering my chances to 10% in 10 days at this point. Looks like SAL will kill it.
Say hello to the Tropical Storm Frank:



Invest 99E
As of 18:00 UTC Jul 21, 2016:

Location: 14.5°N 103.5°W
Maximum Winds: 40 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 20 NM
Quoting 107. pablosyn:

Say hello to the Tropical Storm Frank:



Invest 99E
As of 18:00 UTC Jul 21, 2016:

Location: 14.5°N 103.5°W
Maximum Winds: 40 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 20 NM



i saw it 1st

see post 103
we are now up to 6 named storms for july and if 90E be comes TD 8E and then Georgette we will have 7 named storms be for the end of july
Quoting 107. pablosyn:

Say hello to the Tropical Storm Frank:



Invest 99E
As of 18:00 UTC Jul 21, 2016:

Location: 14.5°N 103.5°W
Maximum Winds: 40 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 20 NM
Quoting 107. pablosyn:

Say hello to the Tropical Storm Frank:



Invest 99E
As of 18:00 UTC Jul 21, 2016:

Location: 14.5°N 103.5°W
Maximum Winds: 40 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 20 NM


This is the more east system that has formed this season in EPAC.
Afternoon all ... Finally! I'm out of the heat for a while .... I totally understand why the Spanish are invested in the siesta concept... find a cool spot and veg until dark!
Quoting 629. LindyVirginIslander:

Oh, and one more thing ....

If you think you've had a hard day, try out my morning so far.

I went outside to coax my dog back into the house. Had to go around the side of the house to get her. As I rounded the corner, I slipped on a fallen mango, and landed on a fire ant nest. NOT a pretty scene! Lends new meaning to "slipped on a banana peel".... add that to me making salsa the other day and not using gloves when dealing with the jalapenos. What an idiot I am! Anyway, rubbing a teaspoon of olive oil on your hands for three minutes, twice, kills the burn and makes for a happier Lindy!


Ah, poor Lindy.... all this is proof that you need help in getting those mangoes eaten up as early as possible.... LOL...
I agree this heat is enervating... gotta stay cool, hydrated and out of the sun. ....
Quoting 102. Articuno:



Darby's doing well, wouldn't be surprised if next advisory it's at 70mph. Hawaii should watch out for a possible hurricane offshore.


Coldest convection its had in a few days too. So far it's taking advantage of the warmer oceans.
Quoting 103. Tazmanian:

we have FRANK 99E wins the race too get upgrade 1st

EP, 07, 2016072118, , BEST, 0, 145N, 1035W, 40, 1005, DB
Twin blows to hopeful ATL bloggers...
Quoting 99. lobdelse81:

I still think Earl will form late next week from an African wave. Just because the latest model runs now don't show much of anything doesn't mean that can't change again. And consider this: the El Ni�o is gone, water temps in the Atlantic are above average, wind shear is low, and the SAL though present in moderate amounts, is not as extreme as it was the previous three seasons, so there is nothing to make me think we won't at least get a named storm out of that wave that everyone has been talking about for next week. I see hardly any inhibiting factors.
How dry I am. How dry I am. Nobody knows....
Quoting 107. pablosyn:

Say hello to the Tropical Storm Frank:



Invest 99E
As of 18:00 UTC Jul 21, 2016:

Location: 14.5°N 103.5°W
Maximum Winds: 40 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 20 NM


Is the more east system to form this season.
116. IDTH
I hate to repeat myself but does anyone have a link they can drop for the MJO forecast from the models? I'm curious to see if this is why the GFS dropped development.
Quoting 96. Gearsts:

Happens every year :D
Like clockwork. Do think earlier start to CV season this year than recent past years.
Quoting 99. lobdelse81:

I still think Earl will form late next week from an African wave. Just because the latest model runs now don't show much of anything doesn't mean that can't change again. And consider this: the El Ni�o is gone, water temps in the Atlantic are above average, wind shear is low, and the SAL though present in moderate amounts, is not as extreme as it was the previous three seasons, so there is nothing to make me think we won't at least get a named storm out of that wave that everyone has been talking about for next week. I see hardly any inhibiting factors.
test

Frank from NRL Tropical Cyclone Page
Frank melted the blog...lol
OH-kay ...

I am now feeling like Baha in Blogholeland ....

Haven't seen a post go through in 30 minutes .... is this Wednesday redux??? Instead of Groundhog Day, we have Bloghole Day????
Double posted, so instead I will post this:
...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the east Tropical Atlantic extending from
08N-20N with axis near 23W, moving W at 15 kt over the past 24
hours. Enhanced Meteosat imagery show Saharan dry air and dust
over the northern wave environment, thus hindering convection in
the Cape Verde Islands. CIRA LPW imagery from the surface to 850
mb show a moderate moist environment S of 14N that along with
divergence aloft support scattered showers from 07N-12N E of 26W.
Similar convection is from 14N-20N E of 21W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean extending from 12N-18N
with axis near 68W, moving W at 20 kt over the past 24 hours. CIRA
LPW imagery from the surface to 850 mb show the wave is embedded
in a moderate to high moist environment that along with
divergent flow aloft support showers and tstms over Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola and adjacent waters southern waters to 13N.

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean extending from 13N to
24N with axis near 83W, moving W at 20 kt over the past 24 hours.
Water vapor imagery show dry air subsidence from aloft over the
western Caribbean. Shallow moisture in the wave environment
support isolated showers N of 16N W of 76W.
i say this blog not posting commits right is getting old vary fast and i wish they fix the issue be for are hurricane gos nuts
Quoting 113. BahaHurican:

Twin blows to hopeful ATL bloggers...

Yeah...not a good day for us Atlantic fans. I just want the experience of being able to track an Atlantic storm again.
Note the outflow boundary from this boomer cell to my w sw currently.

MId level vorticity increasing southeast of Miami with a mid level circulation present.
Quoting 126. Gearsts:


Look at the MDR on here .... explains the early development followed by the kill-off ....
The sooner members here learn that long-range tropical weather models are not actually forecasts, the sooner they can relax and enjoy each season as it unfolds, instead of having their emotions whipsawed from one extreme to another when each model run is published. Anyone who's been here any length of time knows that just because a particular run shows a Cat 5 in the GOM 10 days out doesn't in any way mean that there will actually be a Cat 5 in the GOM ten days from now. In fact, it doesn't even mean that there'll be a tropical cyclone of any type 10 days from now. By the same token, a different model run may show an Atlantic devoid of storms ten days from now, only to actually see two or three cyclones form during that period.

Quoting 59. washingtonian115:

And when most people post these things they put a disclaimer.I put *for entertainment purposes only* If that person complaining clearly cant see that then they are the ones with the problem.


When it happens, we'll all blame you!~
:-)
In the blogging world of tropical cyclones.."it ain't nuttin, till it is sumting'.





We'll be getting recon data on Darby around this time tomorrow provided the schedule doesn't change. Based on today's model runs I'd expect Hawaii to be closer to the center of the cone on the next advisory. We'll see how the Big Island's notorious hurricane shield matches up against what's been a very resilient storm.

We just got slammed with a nasty thunderstorm here in Mobile county.
Reading Alice in Wonderland while reading the latest blog entry is really a scream .... lol ...

Think I'll read back. Hopefully older comments will fit in with Chapter 3.

:o)
Quoting 129. BahaHurican:

Look at the MDR on here .... explains the early development followed by the kill-off ....


I feel deeply depressed.
Blog hole?
About the GFS dropping the possible storm...isn't it storied on here that the GFS drops storms several days before they form? I've heard about this before.
Quoting 111. BahaHurican:

Afternoon all ... Finally! I'm out of the heat for a while .... I totally understand why the Spanish are invested in the siesta concept... find a cool spot and veg until dark!
Ah, poor Lindy.... all this is proof that you need help in getting those mangoes eaten up as early as possible.... LOL...
I agree this heat is enervating... gotta stay cool, hydrated and out of the sun. ....


It was said in colonial times only mad dogs and Englishmen go out in the noonday sun.


My parents told stories of pushing the great danes out the door (with all four brakes applied by the dogs) in Minneapolis in midwinter. For me in DC this is more a summer problem with my labs; they hate heat and are loath to go out in it for midday business walks.
we need too watch this little guy this little guy could spin up fast i see a vary good spin with this upper level low this off the FL E coast



500mb



850mb




wind shear is vary light




dry air is not a issue



and last not lest the rader dos show there is a spin




this low has every thing going for it and with water temper like bath water this little guy could spin up quick
Quoting 138. washingtonian115:

Blog hole?


yes and its starting too get vary vary old
Quoting 137. CaribBoy:



I feel deeply depressed.


I hope that in August before there is a transition to La Nina we will see beneficial rainfall from tropical systems traversing through the Carib. But it may not be so kind though. We will see the door opening for some potent storms as well.
no u mean when the next run shows a cat 5 then we get some crazy stuff happening
Quoting 138. washingtonian115:

Blog hole?


FINALLY....the new name has been released.
Quoting 145. MonsterTrough:



FINALLY....the new name has been released.


???
Quoting 134. MAweatherboy1:

We'll be getting recon data on Darby around this time tomorrow provided the schedule doesn't change. Based on today's model runs I'd expect Hawaii to be closer to the center of the cone on the next advisory. We'll see how the Big Island's notorious hurricane shield matches up against what's been a very resilient storm.


So the hunters get to visit Hawaii .... wonder if any of them surf?



Hi, I'm Frank.
You can call me Frank the Tank.
When the Atlantic didn't show up for practice,
It really stank.
Quoting 140. georgevandenberghe:



It was said in colonial times only mad dogs and Englishmen go out in the noonday sun.


My parents told stories of pushing the great danes out the door (with all four brakes applied by the dogs) in Minneapolis in midwinter. For me in DC this is more a summer problem with my labs; they hate heat and are loath to go out in it for midday business walks.


My german shepherd sees oak tree shade and sprawls out and says..... Rest here for now..

Major Phoenix resting.


Quoting 144. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

no u mean when the next run shows a cat 5 then we get some crazy stuff happening


LMAO well spoken Keep and oh so True....


Taco :O)


 


Hi Taz. Good job spotting it first. You seem much more alert since you've been using the new avatar.
I sho' nuff do not hope the new name of the blog is

"Bob and Jeff's Blog Hole" ....

Is it possible for that little swirl southeast of Miami to develop? There is no SAL there, ocean temps there are extremely warm, and no shear is present. Sounds like a recipe for something to form. What are your guys' thoughts on this??
Quoting 149. Patrap:



My german shepherd sees oak tree shade and sprawls out and says..... Rest here for now..

Major Phoenix resting.



Just needs the water bowl ...
As for the tree shade, I've been spending an extra minute or two in the parking lot these days looking for a likely tree .... lol ... they aren't joking about the extra heat in a closed vehicle left in the sun ....
Popped down to the beach for a break, hot but not too humid, but the water is a BATH TUB, it's as warm as it normally is in August... hmmmm...


Dear Dr Masters,
While it is good to see that there are so many stations coming on board, it would be helpful if some such as our local one would post more accurate information. They frequently say things like, "Today is forecast to be nearly the same as yesterday." on one line and on the next line posting that Yesterday's temperature was 75 and Today' is to be 87.
This comment is not meant to be critical, but rather to strive to obtain the most accurate and most useful information.
We always enjoy your Blogs.
Aloha,
David and Dallas
we all so have TD 8-E
Quoting 157. DavidandDallas:

Dear Dr Masters,
While it is good to see that there are so many stations coming on board, it would be helpful if some such as our local one would post more accurate information. They frequently say things like, "Today is forecast to be nearly the same as yesterday." on one line and on the next line posting that Yesterday's temperature was 75 and Today' is to be 87.
This comment is not meant to be critical, but rather to strive to obtain the most accurate and most useful information.
We always enjoy your Blogs.
Aloha,
David and Dallas

Welcome to the blog, guys.... which area are you in?
Quoting 156. JNFlori30A:

Popped down to the beach for a break, hot but not too humid, but the water is a BATH TUB, it's as warm as it normally is in August... hmmmm...




How warm could it be in August? I would imagine 100 degrees Fahrenheit or higher! Water would probably begin evaporating by then which would help tropical cyclone formation.
Quoting 149. Patrap:



My german shepherd sees oak tree shade and sprawls out and says..... Rest here for now..

Major Phoenix resting.



pets don't like the elements I judge the outdoors with the cat if it wont go out I know somem not right or on the way either or
Nothing organized on this side of the isthmus, but this is certainly a more active afternoon pattern than we've seen across the basin in a few weeks.

Quoting 156. JNFlori30A:

Popped down to the beach for a break, hot but not too humid, but the water is a BATH TUB, it's as warm as it normally is in August... hmmmm...





Water temperature dropped to 87 degrees here (was up around 90 degrees). It's most likely do to thunderstorms and extra cloud cover. But we've been sitting in the upper 80s for probably a month already down here in S.W. Florida.
FLZ162-165-212200-
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-
INCLUDING THE BEACHES OF...BOCA GRANDE...ENGLEWOOD...
FORT MYERS BEACH...SANIBEL ISLAND
500 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT) UNTIL 2 PM...THEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90.
BEACH WINDS.........EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
SURF................1 FOOT OR LESS.
WATER CONDITION.....SMOOTH INCREASING TO A LIGHT CHOP IN THE
AFTERNOON.
WATER TEMPERATURE...87 DEGREES.
UVI INDEX...........EXTREME.
LIGHTNING THREAT....INFREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING.
RIP CURRENT RISK....LOW RISK... STRONG CURRENTS CAN OCCUR NEAR
PIERS AND JETTIES. ALWAYS HAVE A FLOTATION
DEVICE WITH YOU IN THE WATER.
It just doesn't seem right when the Pacific has 4 active tropical cyclones and the Atlantic doesn't even have an invest.

We have TS Frank and TD8E.
The east pac is still cranking out storms.. just wonder when the atlantic will come to life??
Hey all still not a lot of rain for July in South Florida(West Boca Raton, FL). We have only had 0.41 inches in July. They said it would be a 40-50% chance today and we got nothing . Can this be called drought status now? Average for July is 9.58 inches or more.

7-day forecast attached below, highly doubt it will rain in any of the days forecasted:

Quoting 158. Tazmanian:

we all so have TD 8-E
Thanks for the update! Nothing is getting by you and your avatar!
169. Tcwx2
Got a heavy but quick shower earlier, light rain now with some thunder. I was hoping for some more thunderstorms, but my luck would have it a severe storm to my west moving west and a severe storm to my east moving east!!! Hit the big 100°F for the second day straight, I'm not really sure why the NWS Mobile didn't issue a heat advisory today, heat indexes here reached 110°F and most of the warning area got up to or above 105°F.
Quoting 160. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


How warm could it be in August? I would imagine 100 degrees Fahrenheit or higher! Water would probably begin evaporating by then which would help tropical cyclone formation.
Never gets to 100 as far as I know.. maybe closer to the equator. We can get into the 90's especially during an afternoon low tide.
Quoting 165. HurricaneAndre:

We have TS Frank and TD8E.
Hi Andre! Taz spotted it first. Since he's been using the new avatar he is super alert. He even picked up possible development off of Florida. Thank goodness he got rid of the stoplight picture.
Quoting 164. HurricaneFan:

It just doesn't seem right when the Pacific has 4 active tropical cyclones and the Atlantic doesn't even have an invest.



It may not be fair, but the EastPac averages a tropical cyclone about every 8 days during the month of July. The Atlantic Basin averages one tropical cyclone for the entire month.
Quoting 166. stormhank:

The east pac is still cranking out storms.. just wonder when the atlantic will come to life??
Not in July.
Quoting 164. HurricaneFan:

It just doesn't seem right when the Pacific has 4 active tropical cyclones and the Atlantic doesn't even have an invest.


actually that's exactly what its to be this time in july
Quoting 154. lobdelse81:

Is it possible for that little swirl southeast of Miami to develop? There is no SAL there, ocean temps there are extremely warm, and no shear is present. Sounds like a recipe for something to form. What are your guys' thoughts on this??
No low level vorticity present.
Quoting 175. unknowncomic:

No low level vorticity present.

Doubt it will form, no model support.
Okay, in about 20 minutes the 18z GFS will run...let's see if it drops the storm completely or brings it back...
Quoting 171. Llamaluvr:

Hi Andre! Taz spotted it first. Since he's been using the new avatar he is super alert. He even picked up possible development off of Florida. Thank goodness he got rid of the stoplight picture.


will you please stop with the avatar stuff please your posting about could get me in trouble one of those days when are side gets going
Quoting 149. Patrap:



My german shepherd sees oak tree shade and sprawls out and says..... Rest here for now..

Major Phoenix resting.





Beautiful dog!

People should remember that humans are better adapted to heat than most other mammals because we sweat bodywide and are mostly hairless.
NHC mentions Tropical Storm "FRED" in discussion of TD EP082016, what?!
Quoting 170. JNFlori30A:

Never gets to 100 as far as I know.. maybe closer to the equator. We can get into the 90's especially during an afternoon low tide.

It is already nearing 90 for large part of the gulf.
Quoting 177. HurricaneFan:

Okay, in about 20 minutes the 18z GFS will run...let's see if it drops the storm completely or brings it back...
watch it bomb one out at 879 lol then drop it completely at the 00z run
Quoting 180. HadesGodWyvern:

NHC mentions Tropical Storm "FRED" in discussion of TD EP082016, what?!


i gust FRED is still looking for his wife
Quoting 162. BahaHurican:

Nothing organized on this side of the isthmus, but this is certainly a more active afternoon pattern than we've seen across the basin in a few weeks.




Haven't seen a sky so blue here in Nassau in a long time.
I found a weather channel article about the gulf water temps.
Link
18z GFS running now.
looks like the E Pac will be at another round of storms.


Quoting 188. bigwes6844:

looks like the E Pac will be at another round of storms.




Ugh...not more EPac storms... :/
Quoting 178. Tazmanian:



will you please stop with the avatar stuff please your posting about could get me in trouble one of those days when are side gets going
Agreed. That's getting annoying to me, and I'm not Taz ...
Hi everyone! If you can read this, I must have been forgiven. Lol. Probably not hard to tell, this is AtHomeInTx. StillAtHome seemed appropriate and I believe cantthinkofausername has been taken. :) Thanks for the blog Bob. I've been wanting to get a PWS for some time now but I'm not sure I'm tech savvy enough to figure out how to hook it all up or which to get. But I'll continue to research them. Not much to report around here. Some stray daily showers and what has to be above normal temps. Last I looked, it was 96. That seems high for us here. Have a good day all.
Quoting 184. Thrawst:



Haven't seen a sky so blue here in Nassau in a long time.
Was thinking about maybe going out to get some sunset pics ... best light quality I've seen this month.
Quoting 191. StillAtHome:

Hi everyone! If you can read this, I must have been forgiven. Lol. Probably not hard to tell, this is AtHomeInTx. StillAtHome seemed appropriate and I believe cantthinkofausername has been taken. :) Thanks for the blog Bob. I've been wanting to get a PWS for some time now but I'm not sure I'm tech savvy enough to figure out how to hook it all up or which to get. But I'll continue to research them. Not much to report around here. Some stray daily showers and what has to be above normal temps. Last I looked, it was 96. That seems high for us here. Have a good day all.
Have you tried your old username? There seemed to have been some glitch with the blog impacting users the last 24 hours .... I also want to put up a PWS, but I need to get organized about it .... :o/

I know aquak9 has some pull with someone who deals in PWS .... if you get one I'm sure she'd be able to "hook you up" one way or another .... lol ...
Calling the EPAC Tropical Express. It's put two more presents under our hurricane season tree: Frank and TD Eight-E.
(click to enlarge)




Quoting 193. Articuno:




Tropical Storm Darby looks this has good has it was when it was in the EPAC lol
The Weather Company, an IBM Business (of which WU is a subsidiary) announced today that WU will partner with meteorological, government, and nonprofit organizations to furnish hundreds of PWSs at key locations in Africa, Asia, and South America.

This is actually a really good idea. If we could pick 10 locations in the ATL where a PWS would be sent, where do you think they should go?

I vote we send a few to West Africa and the Cape Verde Islands .... the better to track AEWs, my dears ....

When will the dead Atlantic wake up? The Atlantic is like that football player that everyone hypes at the beginning of the season and by the end of the season has nothing to show for.The models show another active round of storms for the east pacific come mid August with the MJO being present and following the inverse relationship that means a inactive Atlantic.
Everyone have a safe weather evening; I would not expect much in the Atlantic in the short-term in the middle of an E-Pac storm cluster and the typical late-July Atlantic doldrums. See Yall in the am:





Quoting 196. Tazmanian:



Tropical Storm Darby looks this has good has it was when it was in the EPAC lol

I can see an eye trying to develop.
Quoting 196. Tazmanian:



Tropical Storm Darby looks this has good has it was when it was in the EPAC lol


Yeah, it's not looking good for Hawaii... storms this small can wrap up very quickly. Hurricane Charley, for example.
Tropical wave not looking good on this run...
Quoting 201. Articuno:



Yeah, it's not looking good for Hawaii... storms this small can wrap up very quickly. Hurricane Charley, for example.


yep
What else is new.
Quoting 188. bigwes6844:

looks like the E Pac will be at another round of storms.



Quoting 197. BahaHurican:

The Weather Company, an IBM Business (of which WU is a subsidiary) announced today that WU will partner with meteorological, government, and nonprofit organizations to furnish hundreds of PWSs at key locations in Africa, Asia, and South America.

This is actually a really good idea. If we could pick 10 locations in the ATL where a PWS would be sent, where do you think they should go?

I vote we send a few to West Africa and the Cape Verde Islands .... the better to track AEWs, my dears ....


I gotta run, ya'll ... will pick up details on the GFS run and Darby's revitalization when I get back.
Quoting 194. BahaHurican:

Have you tried your old username? There seemed to have been some glitch with the blog impacting users the last 24 hours .... I also want to put up a PWS, but I need to get organized about it .... :o/

I know aquak9 has some pull with someone who deals in PWS .... if you get one I'm sure she'd be able to "hook you up" one way or another .... lol ...


Hi Baha! Thanks. Thought it was me. And yes, I could use a round to it myself when it comes to getting organized. Lol.
207. Kyon5
Quoting 202. HurricaneFan:

Tropical wave not looking good on this run...

That's not the one the GFS developed, it's the one behind it.
Good quote, classic! I know we have lots off time still for the Atlantic to do something. But what if and I mean a big if this season turns out to be a well below average season. What will the forecasters say then about there predictions?
Quoting 198. washingtonian115:

When will the dead Atlantic wake up? The Atlantic is like that football player that everyone hypes at the beginning of the season and by the end of the season has nothing to show for.The models show another active round of storms for the east pacific come mid August with the MJO being present and following the inverse relationship that means a inactive Atlantic.
Quoting 158. Tazmanian:

we all so have TD 8-E


Continued crazy active in the Pacific. Didn't see this coming following last years season. Atlantic won't wake up until the Pacific calms down.
211. beell
213. Tcwx2

Well that's a start.
Good evening to all from this part of the world

The East Pacific is rocking it with storm after storm. Very impressive!

Meanwhile the Atlantic just sits and watches there like mehh. Don't yall worry we have several months to go :)
18z brings the TS back but at an extremely low latitude...like 8-9N
YAY WOOT WOOT!
217. JRRP7
Quoting 215. HurricaneFan:

18z brings the TS back but at an extremely low latitude...like 8-9N



hurricane ivan comes too mind
Quoting 209. Grothar:




That broccoli looks good.
GFS shows the tiny little storm intensifying slightly as it heads out to sea.
The GFS has pushed back the storm... and now it looks like it develops another wave.
Quoting 219. PancakeState:



That broccoli looks good.


are you JFV?
Quoting 220. HurricaneFan:

GFS shows the tiny little storm intensifying slightly as it heads out to sea.



how you no its heading out too sea? whats see more runs 1st
Quoting 179. georgevandenberghe:



Beautiful dog!

People should remember that humans are better adapted to heat than most other mammals because we sweat bodywide and are mostly hairless.


Always include pets in ones evac plan too.



Pet Care Disaster Preparedness

NOAA Alert Weather Radio's


Quoting 221. CaribBoy:

The GFS has pushed back the storm... and now it looks like it develops another wave.

It hasn't really pushed it back, it develops it in about 144 hours which is in about 6 days.
Slides south of the Big Island...that would be a game changer. Warmer waters and a later turn into more populated islands. Getting interesting.

Quoting 201. Articuno:



Yeah, it's not looking good for Hawaii... storms this small can wrap up very quickly. Hurricane Charley, for example.
Quoting 220. HurricaneFan:

GFS shows the tiny little storm intensifying slightly as it heads out to sea.



Do you mean it's a fish ?
228. JRRP7
Quoting 221. CaribBoy:

The GFS has pushed back the storm... and now it looks like it develops another wave.

where ?
The Atlantic isn't real anymore
230. Tcwx2

I am going to go ahead and make a prediction that this one is going into the Carr. By the way remember that these individual, long-range model runs are not written in stone as this storm may not ever even develop.


OMG it is certainly looking exciting.
Quoting 231. CaribBoy:



OMG it is certainly looking exciting.


dont cont your eggs be for they hatch what see if it even happens 1st
Quoting 228. JRRP7:


where ?


Just saying that because the storm was nearer the Lesser Antilles by Aug 1st.
Quoting 167. birdsrock2016:

Hey all still not a lot of rain for July in South Florida(West Boca Raton, FL). We have only had 0.41 inches in July. They said it would be a 40-50% chance today and we got nothing . Can this be called drought status now? Average for July is 9.58 inches or more.

7-day forecast attached below, highly doubt it will rain in any of the days forecasted:




KRAL (Riverside Airport)

No Rain here since 5/07
235. JRRP7
The storm moves more towards the WNW in the lastest GFS frames :/
The GFS shows a storm gradually intensifying-er never mind
238. Tcwx2
It may of pushed it back slightly, but not that big of a deal. But i guess we will see come next ~Wednesday.
Quoting 221. CaribBoy:

The GFS has pushed back the storm... and now it looks like it develops another wave.
Then something wants to kill it :(

That's a clear repeat of Danny... weakening as it approaches the Caribbean. Feeling even more depressed.
I've published a blog on Darby, Estelle, Frank, and Eight-E, as well as mentioned the African wave:

Link
The GFS has another storm falling to king dry air..if its not one thing its another.If its not shear its dry air and we've seen this theme for the past 5 years now.
Quoting 241. washingtonian115:

The GFS has another storm falling to king dry air..if its not one thing its another.If its not shear its dry air and we've seen this theme for the past 5 years now.


I've just thrown my chair away. LOL
The modeled Atlantic storm is certainly gaining consistency on the GFS. It looks to me, however, like it kills it off at 240 hours not necessarily because of dry air or any environmental factors, but rather because the drop in resolution loses the small cyclone. Of course, it would be wise to take any of these runs with a grain of salt as long as the ECMWF doesn't also explicitly show development of the wave.
Quoting 241. washingtonian115:

The GFS has another storm falling to king dry air..if its not one thing its another.If its not shear its dry air and we've seen this theme for the past 5 years now.

Tropical cyclones dissipated in the Central Atlantic in 2005 too. Not every storm is going to intensify or look nice, especially when it's July and the region isn't even climatologically that favorable yet.
Something to track.(Until 45W)
Tropically Depressed :(




But there is always light at the end of an unlit tunnel. :D
Quoting 246. PancakeState:

Tropically Depressed :(




But there is always light at the end of an unlit tunnel. :D

Tropical depression has plagued the Atlantic fans the past few years.
Wish we all got excited about EPAC storms too.

Imagine the blog with 4 ATL storms....There's be a big difference in traffic.
Quoting 248. JrWeathermanFL:

Wish we all got excited about EPAC storms too.

Imagine the blog with 4 ATL storms....There's be a big difference in traffic.

For some reason, EPac storms just don't bring me excitement.
Quoting 248. JrWeathermanFL:

Wish we all got excited about EPAC storms too.

Imagine the blog with 4 ATL storms....There's be a big difference in traffic.


3000+ comments per entry
Quoting 240. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I've published a blog on Darby, Estelle, Frank, and Eight-E, as well as mentioned the African wave:

Link


when was the last time storm in the E PAC skip TD and went right too a TS ??? i did not think the NHC did that on the E PAC side so is this a rare event ?
Quoting 229. JrWeathermanFL:

The Atlantic isn't real anymore


It IS JULY!!!!
Quoting 244. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Tropical cyclones dissipated in the Central Atlantic in 2005 too. Not every storm is going to intensify or look nice, especially when it's July and the region isn't even climatologically that favorable yet.
Leading up to 2005 we saw healthy storms coming out of the MDR.The last 5 years not so much......
Quoting 251. Tazmanian:



when was the last time storm in the E PAC skip TD and went right too a TS ??? i did not think the NHC did that on the E PAC side so is this a rare event ?

I don't know the last time, but it's really not that uncommon.
255. JRRP7
GFS is showing system like Danny

Quoting 249. HurricaneFan:


For some reason, EPac storms just don't bring me excitement.

The blog proves that you're not alone. There can be a powerful cyclone in the Eastern Pacific and the blog will still be very slow.
hurricane season over bring on winter storms am sick of the heat wave
Quoting 241. washingtonian115:

The GFS has another storm falling to king dry air..if its not one thing its another.If its not shear its dry air and we've seen this theme for the past 5 years now.
No king this time, paupers only, and no captian troughs this year, only privates if any East Coast troughs.
At least it's not all bad news. Recent runs of the GFS and ECMWF shows the EPacific finally pulling the brakes on tropical cyclone activity after Frank and TD-8E [Georgette]. If those models keep that pattern for a good 2 days worth of runs, then we can............. idk, celebrate.

Quoting 257. Tazmanian:

hurricane season over bring on winter storms am sick of the heat wave


Not even hot there(92.6f) wait till next week, it will be much hotter....100+
It's about time we see this.
IT'S JULY!

The Republican contempt for Nature knows no bounds, it should all be converted into money as fast as possible.
They say this as if they have a spare planet in their back pocket.
Quoting 241. washingtonian115:

The GFS has another storm falling to king dry air..if its not one thing its another.If its not shear its dry air and we've seen this theme for the past 5 years now.


Dry air is very common in July, even in active seasons. July is on average the quietest month of the season. It will pick up soon
Quoting 261. HurricaneFan:

It's about time we see this.

''


dont get used too it
Quoting 262. scott39:

IT'S JULY!


El Nino is Basically Over — But this Global Coral Bleaching Event Just Won’t End

Back in 2014, an unsuspecting world was on the verge of a major global temperature increase. But despite warnings from scientists like Dr. Kevin Trenberth that deep ocean warming had sped up and would eventually result in rapid surface warming, the big media meme at the time was that global warming had ‘paused.’ Originating in The Economist, and swiftly spreading to numerous other news outlets, this particular blast of bad information fed the public a big

Link
I am waiting until it gets off the coast and we can start the now-casting process with it as a Invest once the NHC identifies it as one.
Quoting 246. PancakeState:

Tropically Depressed :(




But there is always light at the end of an unlit tunnel. :D
Comes around every year during hurricane season.
Quoting 263. RobertWC:


The Republican contempt for Nature knows no bounds, it should all be converted into money as fast as possible.
They say this as if they have a spare planet in their back pocket.
LOL!!
Quoting 268. Climate175:

I am waiting until it get's off the coast and we can start the now-casting process with it as a Invest once the NHC identifies it as one.

We could see this mentioned by the NHC in a day or two if GFS continues to show it.
Quoting 268. Climate175:

I am waiting until it get's off the coast and we can start the now-casting process with it as a Invest once the NHC identifies it as one.
low rider
Dry air may be common in July, but we're still pretty below average in terms of vertical instability in the MDR for what I believe is the fourth year running. Personally, I believe this will likely continue into August and quite possibly the rest of the season. And even if this year does end up above average it will probably have an average total ACE. With all that said, this isn't very different than what was expecting at the beginning of the season and the threat for powerful hurricanes is likely to be closer to the United States IMO. Think of Joaquin last year (as I'm sure members from the Bahamas will certainly remember).



The conditions are very favorable in the Caribbean, and in the Bahamas, and we really don't even know what the storm could have the potential to do, I saw someone mention Danny, last year when Danny was being forecast, I bet not many people knew with the conditions ahead of it, it would still become a Cat 3 storm. We can never really know.
I have a question about Cape Verde storm formation and the EPac basin: I realize that many of you talk about the inverse relationship between activity in the EPac and Atlantic Basin. Specifically, that when the EPac is active, it tends to absorb energy from the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea and also induce some wind shear in that direction, thus not allowing cyclogenesis to occur. So my question is would an active EPac absorb atmospheric energy all the way to the MDR and points east towards the Cape Verde Islands or is that too far to consider this observation relevant? I am curious because I would like to know if that tropical wave that the GFS is expecting to develop next week be influenced by whatever activity is happening in the EPac basin.
What are you expecting from the Cape Verde wave?
A. Just a tropical wave without being an invest
B. An invest
C. TD
D. TS
E. Hurricane
Quoting 261. HurricaneFan:

It's about time we see this.



Because there's no more room for any more to form :P
Heat index map

I'd like to have a weather station--I have a rain gauge on the roof of the building but thermometers don't work well up there---readings frequently exceed 110 F on the roof.

Grothar's map looks like this:

From Neptune's blue hue to Jupiter's red spot: are the colours of the planets real?

Three versions of the same view on the surface of Mars from NASA's Curiosity rover. Left: unprocessed. Middle: adjusted to how human eyes would see it. Right: how it would look under Earth-like lighting conditions (note how the colour of the sky has changed)

Since the Atlantic is quiet Ill take this opportunity to make an observation. I have been coming here for quite some time. It is funny how things have changed! I remember furious arguments over fish storms, wish-casters, JFV, StormW leaving the blog and on and on. What we did NOT do in the past is vilify people for their politics, disagreements on global warming (pros' and cons). We may have had arguments on storm tracks but we did not ATTACK others because they "did not agree" with our "opinions"....and believe me 99% of what is on this blog is peoples opinions! I often feel, as if in real life, this site has been taken over by people who do not respect others thoughts and ideas and ATTACK when others do not agree, yet I still come.

Why I come here is this site offers the BEST "opinions AND facts" on tropical weather and hurricanes. I see Levi has his own blog, and does not post here much anymore, very sad.

But to my main point, I understand the 'thrill' of tracking a storm. I understand the "excitement" of a big storm and what it can do...we have had PLENTY to track in the Pacific over the years. But every year since 2005, I never understood the begging, pleading and wishing for the 'big one' to form and "devastate" the US. And the once a year or so someone is questioned on why they say, "Im just into tracking the weather." I can only think that those who are depressed that the Atlantic is "quiet" have never had their lives devastated by the Big one. You don't see PATRAP 'rooting' for a storm, you don't see Grothar begging for a big one. You know why, they have lived through one (or more) or know for a fact how they devastate lives. Remember for the sake of "tracking" the storm, you "may be" wishing for HARM to your fellow man, so please think before you post about how depressed you are the Atl is quiet!

So I end this long rant to say, I will continue to come, because I have to. I humbly ask that some of you think about what you post. Don't call people names because they don't share your political views, or do not share your views on global warming, this isn't a Liberal or Conservative site, it is a "Tropical Weather Blog"...and most of all be HAPPY that Katrina isn't coming your way today, I know I am. Back to watching the tropics
I never understood the begging, pleading and wishing for the 'big one' to form and "devastate" the US. No one here (unless a troll) has been begging for a storm to devastate someone.We cannot do anything about the steering currents.Would I rather watch these storms over the open at waters? Yes but when they come for land you prepare and get out of the way.
Quoting 278. HurricaneFan:

What are you expecting from the Cape Verde wave?
A. Just a tropical wave without being an invest
B. An invest
C. TD
D. TS
E. Hurricane
E
Quoting 284. washingtonian115:

I never understood the begging, pleading and wishing for the 'big one' to form and "devastate" the US. No one here (unless a troll) has been begging for a storm to devastate someone.We cannot do anything about the steering currents.Would I rather watch these storms over the open at waters? Yes but when they come for land you prepare and get out of the way.


My post was not directed at anyone in particular, certainly not you ( I consider you one of the old timers and respect your comments and posts). Just wanted to get how "I feel" off my chest, and remind some of those, young and old, that these beautiful and awesome acts of mother nature often (almost always) have a terrible downside, and to keep that in mind as we observe, track, comment and post.
Quoting 283. USCGLT:

Since the Atlantic is quiet Ill take this opportunity to make an observation. I have been coming here for quite some time. It is funny how things have changed! I remember furious arguments over fish storms, wish-casters, JFV, StormW leaving the blog and on and on. What we did NOT do in the past is vilify people for their politics, disagreements on global warming (pros' and cons). We may have had arguments on storm tracks but we did not ATTACK others because they "did not agree" with our "opinions"....and believe me 99% of what is on this blog is peoples opinions! I often feel, as if in real life, this site has been taken over by people who do not respect others thoughts and ideas and ATTACK when others do not agree, yet I still come.

Why I come here is this site offers the BEST "opinions AND facts" on tropical weather and hurricanes. I see Levi has his own blog, and does not post here much anymore, very sad.

But to my main point, I understand the 'thrill' of tracking a storm. I understand the "excitement" of a big storm and what it can do...we have had PLENTY to track in the Pacific over the years. But every year since 2005, I never understood the begging, pleading and wishing for the 'big one' to form and "devastate" the US. And the once a year or so someone is questioned on why they say, "Im just into tracking the weather." I can only think that those who are depressed that the Atlantic is "quiet" have never had their lives devastated by the Big one. You don't see PATRAP 'rooting' for a storm, you don't see Grothar begging for a big one. You know why, they have lived through one (or more) or know for a fact how they devastate lives. Remember for the sake of "tracking" the storm, you are wishing for HARM to your fellow man, so please think before you post about how depressed you are the Atl is quiet!

So I end this long rant to say, I will continue to come, because I have to. I humbly ask that some of you think about what you post. Don't call people names because they don't share your political views, or do not share your views on global warming, this isn't a Liberal or Conservative site, it is a "Tropical Weather Blog"...and most of all be HAPPY that Katrina isn't coming your way today, I know I am. Back to watching the tropics.....


Thank you so much and "Very Well Said"

Taco :o)
I have a question.
Does anyone know, with all the heat over the midwest, if warmer Great Lakes lead to more Lake Effect Snow come winter? Right now there isn't enormous anomalies (thanks to late May/Early June), but it seems like the foreseeable future is well above average.
My thought would be yes, if Air temps get cold enough, because more energy=more upward motion=stronger snow bands. Also delayed freezing would, particularly in the Erie snowbelts would lead to a longer Lake effect season.
Any thoughts?
Quoting 283. USCGLT:

Since the Atlantic is quiet Ill take this opportunity to make an observation. I have been coming here for quite some time. It is funny how things have changed! I remember furious arguments over fish storms, wish-casters, JFV, StormW leaving the blog and on and on. What we did NOT do in the past is vilify people for their politics, disagreements on global warming (pros' and cons). We may have had arguments on storm tracks but we did not ATTACK others because they "did not agree" with our "opinions"....and believe me 99% of what is on this blog is peoples opinions! I often feel, as if in real life, this site has been taken over by people who do not respect others thoughts and ideas and ATTACK when others do not agree, yet I still come.

Why I come here is this site offers the BEST "opinions AND facts" on tropical weather and hurricanes. I see Levi has his own blog, and does not post here much anymore, very sad.

But to my main point, I understand the 'thrill' of tracking a storm. I understand the "excitement" of a big storm and what it can do...we have had PLENTY to track in the Pacific over the years. But every year since 2005, I never understood the begging, pleading and wishing for the 'big one' to form and "devastate" the US. And the once a year or so someone is questioned on why they say, "Im just into tracking the weather." I can only think that those who are depressed that the Atlantic is "quiet" have never had their lives devastated by the Big one. You don't see PATRAP 'rooting' for a storm, you don't see Grothar begging for a big one. You know why, they have lived through one (or more) or know for a fact how they devastate lives. Remember for the sake of "tracking" the storm, you are wishing for HARM to your fellow man, so please think before you post about how depressed you are the Atl is quiet!

So I end this long rant to say, I will continue to come, because I have to. I humbly ask that some of you think about what you post. Don't call people names because they don't share your political views, or do not share your views on global warming, this isn't a Liberal or Conservative site, it is a "Tropical Weather Blog"...and most of all be HAPPY that Katrina isn't coming your way today, I know I am. Back to watching the tropics.....


I lived through Rita and Ike. The unpleasantness remains. But I also remember growing up on the Gulf Coast and the sense excitement that something truly historical might take place. While I do not approve of wishing destruction in anyone, I can certainly sympathize with the excitement that an impending land falling storm brings.

In the book, "Whisper in The Wind" a retired gladiator is telling one that is living through the games about what it like to win enough to get out of the hell that was the Roman games. He said, "You will never be more alive than when facing death in the arena."

When I was in the Coast Gaurd I was an electronic tech, so I never got to do the cool stuff, like take the patrol boats out into the storm like a Bosuns Mate, or hang from a helicopter like a Rescue Swimmer, or board a sinking boat and install dewatering equipment like a Damage Controlman. But, when Rita came, as a telephone tech, I stayed in my central office and made sure everything that could be done to ensure it stayed on the air had been done, and when the storm passed I did everything that could be done to keep all the affected offices on the air. It wasn't fun, and it wasn't comfortable, but it was exciting and I hope I am never that alive ever again.

Storms happen, wishing one way or another makes no difference. When I see the people excited about the storm, I smile and nod. They are like the young soldiers going into thier first battle. Maybe it is a human thing that allows us to do the dangerous and uncomfortable.

Cheers
Qazulight
290. Tcwx2
That's a very good analysis and it is certainly a realistic possibility that you are right. Of course, everything has to set up right to have lake effect snow and warmer than average temperatures to near average temperatures would have to remain until about November to keep or make the lakes warm. I personally find lake effect snow incredible, and, living in S Alabama it is only in my dreams to one day experience lake effect snow. All I can do now is get out the drawing board and pretend there is a massive upper level low over the N Gulf after a brutally cold cold front has came through, leading to an unprecedented ocean effect snow storm in the southern U.S, but that's just in my dreams LOL!!
Quoting 288. Methurricanes:

I have a question.
Does anyone know, with all the heat over the midwest, if warmer Great Lakes lead to more Lake Effect Snow come winter? Right now there isn't enormous anomalies (thanks to late May/Early June), but it seems like the foreseeable future is well above average.
My thought would be yes, if Air temps get cold enough, because more energy=more upward motion=stronger snow bands. Also delayed freezing would, particularly in the Erie snowbelts would lead to a longer Lake effect season.
Any thoughts?
It appears we could hear from NHC as early as tomorrow, although that is still in question to see if they wait until Saturday.
Quoting 279. JrWeathermanFL:



Because there's no more room for any more to form :P


The EPAC is just waiting for a free space... so it can produce another boring storm.
Quoting 273. CybrTeddy:

Dry air may be common in July, but we're still pretty below average in terms of vertical instability in the MDR for what I believe is the fourth year running. Personally, I believe this will likely continue into August and quite possibly the rest of the season. And even if this year does end up above average it will probably have an average total ACE. With all that said, this isn't very different than what was expecting at the beginning of the season and the threat for powerful hurricanes is likely to be closer to the United States IMO. Think of Joaquin last year (as I'm sure members from the Bahamas will certainly remember).






So, we can't even expect a mere category one just east of the Leeward Islands?

Quoting 250. PancakeState:



3000+ comments per entry
Had days in '08 when we pushed 7000, 8000 comments. Doc started posting 2x a day just to change the blog page and give people a fresh palate. I used to open 1000 comments at a time .... lol ... crazy stuff; now I set to 100 comments due to the tablet ....

[Good old days] I do admit to a certain nostalgia, but at the same time I don't think I'd like to see the blog whipping by so fast that before one reads 50 comments another 50 have been posted .... and traffic can be that high ....
295. Tcwx2
Very very well said!!!!! I am 15 and have never been through a hurricane knowing what was happening. I have a very faint memory of Hurricane Ivan but that wasn't that bad in my area. I don't necessarily wish for a hurricane, but if Mother Nature decides to send it this way, bring it on! The real point is that it doesn't matter how much we wish, it will have no affect on the weather in real life. Oh and if anyone wishes for deaths, you need to get your head checked, because it makes 0.00 sense. I can somewhat understand a little bit of damage being wished, such as tree damage, but not quite people's home's and businesses. Anyway, glad to see a veteran on here to keep the rest of us behaved :).
Quoting 283. USCGLT:

Since the Atlantic is quiet Ill take this opportunity to make an observation. I have been coming here for quite some time. It is funny how things have changed! I remember furious arguments over fish storms, wish-casters, JFV, StormW leaving the blog and on and on. What we did NOT do in the past is vilify people for their politics, disagreements on global warming (pros' and cons). We may have had arguments on storm tracks but we did not ATTACK others because they "did not agree" with our "opinions"....and believe me 99% of what is on this blog is peoples opinions! I often feel, as if in real life, this site has been taken over by people who do not respect others thoughts and ideas and ATTACK when others do not agree, yet I still come.

Why I come here is this site offers the BEST "opinions AND facts" on tropical weather and hurricanes. I see Levi has his own blog, and does not post here much anymore, very sad.

But to my main point, I understand the 'thrill' of tracking a storm. I understand the "excitement" of a big storm and what it can do...we have had PLENTY to track in the Pacific over the years. But every year since 2005, I never understood the begging, pleading and wishing for the 'big one' to form and "devastate" the US. And the once a year or so someone is questioned on why they say, "Im just into tracking the weather." I can only think that those who are depressed that the Atlantic is "quiet" have never had their lives devastated by the Big one. You don't see PATRAP 'rooting' for a storm, you don't see Grothar begging for a big one. You know why, they have lived through one (or more) or know for a fact how they devastate lives. Remember for the sake of "tracking" the storm, you "may be" wishing for HARM to your fellow man, so please think before you post about how depressed you are the Atl is quiet!

So I end this long rant to say, I will continue to come, because I have to. I humbly ask that some of you think about what you post. Don't call people names because they don't share your political views, or do not share your views on global warming, this isn't a Liberal or Conservative site, it is a "Tropical Weather Blog"...and most of all be HAPPY that Katrina isn't coming your way today, I know I am. Back to watching the tropics
296. Tcwx2
Is there something that they said that makes you think that they will say something about our suspect area tomorrow? Just wondering and sorry if that sounded confusing, haha.
Quoting 291. Climate175:

It appears we could hear from NHC as early as tomorrow, although that is still in question to see if they wait until Saturday.
Quoting 295. Tcwx2:

Very very well said!!!!! I am 15 and have never been through a hurricane knowing what was happening. I have a very faint memory of Hurricane Ivan but that wasn't that bad in my area. I don't necessarily wish for a hurricane, but if Mother Nature decides to send it this way, bring it on! The real point is that it doesn't matter how much we wish, it will have no affect on the weather in real life. Oh and if anyone wishes for deaths, you need to get your head checked, because it makes 0.00 sense. I can somewhat understand a little bit of damage being wished, such as tree damage, but not quite people's home's and businesses. Anyway, glad to see a veteran on here to keep the rest of us behaved :).
Quoting 283. USCGLT:

Since the Atlantic is quiet Ill take this opportunity to make an observation. I have been coming here for quite some time. It is funny how things have changed! I remember furious arguments over fish storms, wish-casters, JFV, StormW leaving the blog and on and on. What we did NOT do in the past is vilify people for their politics, disagreements on global warming (pros' and cons). We may have had arguments on storm tracks but we did not ATTACK others because they "did not agree" with our "opinions"....and believe me 99% of what is on this blog is peoples opinions! I often feel, as if in real life, this site has been taken over by people who do not respect others thoughts and ideas and ATTACK when others do not agree, yet I still come.

Why I come here is this site offers the BEST "opinions AND facts" on tropical weather and hurricanes. I see Levi has his own blog, and does not post here much anymore, very sad.

But to my main point, I understand the 'thrill' of tracking a storm. I understand the "excitement" of a big storm and what it can do...we have had PLENTY to track in the Pacific over the years. But every year since 2005, I never understood the begging, pleading and wishing for the 'big one' to form and "devastate" the US. And the once a year or so someone is questioned on why they say, "Im just into tracking the weather." I can only think that those who are depressed that the Atlantic is "quiet" have never had their lives devastated by the Big one. You don't see PATRAP 'rooting' for a storm, you don't see Grothar begging for a big one. You know why, they have lived through one (or more) or know for a fact how they devastate lives. Remember for the sake of "tracking" the storm, you "may be" wishing for HARM to your fellow man, so please think before you post about how depressed you are the Atl is quiet!

So I end this long rant to say, I will continue to come, because I have to. I humbly ask that some of you think about what you post. Don't call people names because they don't share your political views, or do not share your views on global warming, this isn't a Liberal or Conservative site, it is a "Tropical Weather Blog"...and most of all be HAPPY that Katrina isn't coming your way today, I know I am. Back to watching the tropics
I read thru this blog almost daily. I don't post hardly ever anymore because I got tired of being attacked for my conservative views. I'm pretty thick skinned but it's just not worth the effort. And then there this gang flagging thing..or there used to be.
Quoting 256. Sfloridacat5:
The blog proves that you're not alone. There can be a powerful cyclone in the Eastern Pacific and the blog will still be very slow.
The diehards will keep blogging all the way through the season. However, a lot of the high traffic here is driven by people with what I call "local interests". My fave example of this is a long-time WUblogger, RoatanGardener, who only posts in the main blog when there's a TC likely to threaten the northern Honduras coast. Anything in the ECar will bring out english, spanish, french speaking bloggers from throughout the Antilles. TX, Gulf Coasters, FL-bloggers, the Carolinans ... the blog gets saturated when any group or groups are threatened.

Additionally, there are general interest bloggers who are only going to get on to read and post when there's an actual named storm. So if one considers various rationales behind the different interest groups participating in the blog, it's not surprising posting about EPac storms is limited.

I am expecting to see a few HI bloggers in here if Darby does indeed make it close to the Big Island....
Quoting 263. RobertWC:


The Republican contempt for Nature knows no bounds, it should all be converted into money as fast as possible.
They say this as if they have a spare planet in their back pocket.


YAWWNNN.....
Genius gone wrong: August 12, 1979 - Frank Lloyd Wright speaks out against air conditioning. Click editorial to expand for legibility.

Quoting 288. Methurricanes:

I have a question.
Does anyone know, with all the heat over the midwest, if warmer Great Lakes lead to more Lake Effect Snow come winter? Right now there isn't enormous anomalies (thanks to late May/Early June), but it seems like the foreseeable future is well above average.
My thought would be yes, if Air temps get cold enough, because more energy=more upward motion=stronger snow bands. Also delayed freezing would, particularly in the Erie snowbelts would lead to a longer Lake effect season.
Any thoughts?
This is an interesting question. I wonder if you might get a more thoughtful answer if you asked it again on one of the other blogs .... not sure which one, though. I'd love to know the answer.

Quoting 297. PensacolaDoug:

I read thru this blog almost daily. I don't post hardly ever anymore because I got tired of being attacked for my conservative views. I'm pretty thick skinned but it's just not worth the effort. And then there this gang flagging thing..or there used to be.
Doug, I may not always agree with your views, but I think a lot of your fellow bloggers respect not only your right to hold them but also your willingness to express them. The reality is the storm doesn't just come to people you dislike or disagree with, or to people in other places. One of these days that storm comes to all of us, and we're all on the same boat. In the final analysis, what makes things work is when we can put aside differences to achieve a common goal.

So we may cuss on a day like today, but if a storm threatens Pensacola, we ARE going to worry about you and want to be sure you're okay ...
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 288. Methurricanes:

I have a question.
Does anyone know, with all the heat over the midwest, if warmer Great Lakes lead to more Lake Effect Snow come winter? Right now there isn't enormous anomalies (thanks to late May/Early June), but it seems like the foreseeable future is well above average.
My thought would be yes, if Air temps get cold enough, because more energy=more upward motion=stronger snow bands. Also delayed freezing would, particularly in the Erie snowbelts would lead to a longer Lake effect season.
Any thoughts?

Your thoughts are right. Lake effect snow occurs when extremely cold northwesterly flow overspreads the relatively warmer Great Lakes. The larger the temperature difference between the air and the lakes, the more substantial the lake effect snow season should be. The season only winds down when continued exposure to cold air causes the lakes to cool and then freeze. The warmer the anomalies, the longer that takes.

SAL has eased a lot in the eastern MDR due to the recent tropical waves.
307. MahFL
Quoting 288. Methurricanes:

I have a question.
Does anyone know, with all the heat over the midwest, if warmer Great Lakes lead to more Lake Effect Snow come winter? Right now there isn't enormous anomalies (thanks to late May/Early June), but it seems like the foreseeable future is well above average.
My thought would be yes, if Air temps get cold enough, because more energy=more upward motion=stronger snow bands. Also delayed freezing would, particularly in the Erie snowbelts would lead to a longer Lake effect season.
Any thoughts?


The lakes do have to be unfrozen for lake effect snow to take place. You would though need cold air in place.
Quoting 297. PensacolaDoug:

I read thru this blog almost daily. I don't post hardly ever anymore because I got tired of being attacked for my conservative views. I'm pretty thick skinned but it's just not worth the effort. And then there this gang flagging thing..or there used to be.
I've never seen *anyone* here "attacked" for having a certain political point of view, since this isn't a political forum. It is, rather, a science forum. And because of that, I've seen comments that deny science "attacked", or at least questioned. Which is how it should be...
Quoting 308. Neapolitan:

I've never seen *anyone* here "attacked" for having a certain political point of view, since this isn't a political forum. It is, rather, a science forum. And because of that, I've seen comments that deny science "attacked", or at least questioned. Which is how it should be...
You say it with a straight face. Not bad!
Exciting article. I'd love to help monitor weather in my own backyard. I don't have the funds to upgrade from my low-end LaCross unit. If anyone is willing or has an extra (WU broadcast capable) device they'd let me use, I'd be more than willing to set it up and add to the cause. I'm at 1124 Merrifield Ct. Shakopee, MN 55379

Special thanks,
Ben Doyle
Hello,
I became a member here just to ask these questions that I cannot find the answers to anywhere.

I have the app Storm on my devices and often a personal weather station will be very wrong on its data. Sometimes the dew point is way off or the temperature or the barometric pressure, etc. Where can I go to tell this person that they need to recalibrate their instrument?

Secondly, when I go to a forecast of a saved city on my app, how can I select a PWS that I know about and trust that is close to my home or to the city in question? As I mentioned above, sometimes I am looking for a PWS that is not displaying incorrect data.

There is only one place on the app to select either composite or the PWS that is being seen at the moment. There is no way to choose a different PWS.

I will be most grateful for some answers. I hope it will helps other too with similar questions.

Thank you in advance. Irwin