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June Does It Again: Global Temperature Sets 14th Consecutive Monthly Record

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 7:05 PM GMT on July 19, 2016

Even with the intense 2015 - 2016 El Niño event out of the picture, June 2016 was still the planet's warmest June since record keeping began in 1880, said NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) on Tuesday. In the NOAA database, June 2016 came in 0.90°C (1.62°F) warmer than the 20th-century average for June, beating the previous record for June, set in 2015, by 0.02°C. This ties with May 2016 for the smallest margin the monthly global temperature has broken a record by since August 2015. NASA also reported the warmest June in its database--though just barely--as did the Japan Meteorological Agency. June 2016 marked the 14th consecutive month that the global monthly temperature record was broken, which is the longest such streak since global temperature records began in 1880. The record-warm June extended to both global ocean and global land temperatures in the NOAA database. For the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere, global satellite-measured temperatures in June 2016 were the 2nd warmest for any June in the 38-year record, according to the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH).

The impressive global warmth in recent months is due to the steady build-up of heat-trapping greenhouse gases due to human activities, plus a spike due to a large amount of heat being released from waters in the Eastern Pacific due to the powerful 2015-16 El Niño event. This event peaked in December, and NOAA’s global surface temperature for the year so far (January-June 2016) is a remarkable 0.20°C (0.38°F) warmer than the previous record, set in 2015 (see Figure 1). The departure of El Niño and the likely arrival of La Niña should allow temperatures to drop slightly, perhaps breaking our string of record-warm months sometime in the near future, but temperatures would have to plummet between now and December in order to keep 2016 from becoming the warmest year in global record keeping. In May, NASA/GISS director Gavin Schmidt laid 99% odds on 2016 setting a new global temperature record, which would make it Earth's third consecutive warmest year on record.


Figure 1. Departure from average for the global January-through-June temperature for the years 1880 - 2016. This year has seen by far the warmest temperatures on record for the year-to-date period. Image credit: NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).



Figure 2. Departure of temperature from average for June 2016, the warmest June for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Pockets of record warmth were observed across every major ocean basin and over a few land areas, including parts of the Maritime Continent, the southwest U.S., northeast Africa, and much of the Middle East. The only major land-based region of cooler-than-average temperatures was in central and southern South America. The cool “blob” that had persisted for many months across the far North Atlantic weakened substantially in June. Image credit: National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).

El Niño is over; odds of La Niña decreasing
El Niño dissipated in May 2016, giving way to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions as sea surface temperatures continued to cool across the tropical Pacific Ocean during June. According to NOAA's July ENSO forecast from the Climate Prediction Center, a weak La Niña is favored to develop during the August - October peak of hurricane season. The La Niña odds in the July outlook were 55 - 60%, which is lower than the 75% odds given in the June forecast.


Figure 3. The year-to-date temperature in the Arctic (between 70°N and 90°N, the blue line) set a new record in 2016, at just over 3.5°C (6.3°F) above average. Note how the Arctic has warmed much more rapidly than the mid-latitudes (between 40°N and 60°N, the black line) in recent decades. This process is called "Arctic Amplification", and has been shown by climate models to occur as a result of human-emitted heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide affecting the climate. Image credit: Dr. Jennifer Francis, Rutgers.

Arctic sea ice hits its lowest June extent on record
June sea ice extent in 2016 was the lowest in the 38-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). So far, March has been the only month in 2016 that has not set a new record low for Arctic-wide sea ice extent (March 2016 was second lowest, just above 2015). However, atmospheric conditions during late June 2016 extending into the first half of July favored low pressure and storminess, resulting in greater than average cloud cover and a slow-down in the Arctic sea ice melt rate. By July 1, Arctic sea was no longer at a record minimum for the date. The latest 2-week forecast from the GFS model shows a continuation of cloudier than usual conditions in the Arctic for the remainder of July, which should keep Arctic sea ice loss not quite as bad as seen during the record-setting retreat in the summer of 2012. The fact that 2016 is still challenging 2012 for lowest sea ice on record is evidence of how “the extraordinary years have become the normal years,” as NASA sea ice scientist Walt Meier stated in an interview last week with the Washington Post.

One billion-dollar weather disaster in June 2016: flooding in China
According to the June 2016 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield, one billion-dollar weather-related disaster hit the planet in June: flooding in China on June 18 - 23 that cost $2.3 billion (this does not include the renewed round of Chinese flooding that began on June 30 extending into early July, which has brought the total cost of this year's monsoon flooding in China to $22 billion dollars.) Additionally, two severe weather outbreaks in the U.S. during May accumulated enough damage claims to be rated billion-dollar disasters by the end of June. However, the previously reported most expensive weather disaster of 2016—a drought in Vietnam that government of Vietnam said caused $6.75 billion in losses—was reassessed to have caused only $675 million in losses, due to an extra zero the government inadvertently put into its original damage estimate. Between January - June 2016, there have been eighteen billion-dollar weather disasters--one more than occurred during January - June 2013, the year that ended up with the most billion-dollar weather disasters on record: 41. Here is the tally of billion-dollar weather disasters for January - June 2016, updated to include the early July numbers from the Chinese monsoon flooding:

1) Flooding, China, 6/1 - 7/14, $22.0 billion, 273 killed
2) Drought, India, 1/1 - 6/30, $5.0 billion, 0 killed
3) Flooding, Germany, France, Austria, Poland, 5/26 - 6/6, $5.0 billion, 17 killed
4) Severe Weather, Plains-Southeast U.S., 4/10 - 4/13, $3.75 billion, 1 killed
5) Wildfire, Fort McMurray, Canada, 5/2- 6/1, $3.1 billion, 0 killed
6) Winter Weather, Eastern U.S., 1/21 - 1/24, $2.0 billion, 58 killed
7) Winter Weather, East Asia, 1/20 - 1/26, $2.0 billion, 116 killed
8) Severe Weather, Rockies-Plains-Southeast-Midwest U.S., 3/22 - 3/25, $1.75 billion, 0 killed
9) Tropical Cyclone Roanu, Sri Lanka, India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, China, 5/14 - 5/21, $1.7 billion, 135 killed
10) Drought, Zimbabwe, 1/1 - 3/1, $1.6 billion, 0 killed
11) Flooding, Argentina and Uruguay, 4/4 - 4/10, $1.3 billion, 0 killed
12) Severe Weather, Plains-Midwest-Southeast-Northeast U.S., 3/4 - 3/12, $1.25 billion, 6 killed
13) Severe Weather, Plains-Midwest-Southeast-Northeast U.S., 2/22 - 2/25, $1.2 billion, 10 killed
14) Severe Weather, Plains-Midwest U.S., 4/29 - 5/3, $1.1 billion, 6 killed
15) Severe Weather, Plains-Midwest U.S., 5/21 - 5/28, $1.1 billion, 1 killed
16) Flooding, Plains-Rockies U.S., 4/15 - 4/19, $1.0 billion, 9 killed
17) Severe Weather, Plains-Southeast U.S., 3/17 - 3/18, $1.0 billion, 0 killed
18) Tropical Cyclone Winston, Fiji, 2/16 - 2/22, $1.0 billion, 44 killed

And here is the one disaster from June 2016 in more detail:


Disaster 1. Southern China, including Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Jiangxi, Gansu, Shaanxi, Qinghai, Hubei, Hunan, Guangxi Zhuang, Chongqing, Sichuan, Guizhou, and Yunnan provinces, experienced torrential monsoon rains from June 18 - 23 that caused significant flooding. At least 68 people were dead or missing in the provinces of Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei, Chongqing, Sichuan, and Yunnan, and damage was estimated at $2.3 billion. In this image, we see an aerial view of flooded buildings in Nianyushan Town of Changjiang District, China on June 21, 2016 in Jingdezhen, Jiangxi Province of China. (Photo by VCG/VCG via Getty Images)


Figure 4. As of July 13, 2016, the southwest monsoon had progressed at a near-normal pace across all of India, and had entered into eastern Pakistan. Image credit: India Meteorological Department.

Good monsoon rains in India
India, whose $5 billion drought was Earth's second most expensive weather-related natural disaster of the first half of 2016, is finally getting a good monsoon after two straight years of poor rains. According to the India Meteorological Department, the monsoon progressed at a near-normal pace across the nation during June and July, and monsoon rains during the period June 1 - July 18 were 3% above average.

Notable global heat and cold marks set for June 2016
Hottest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: 52.4°C (126.3°F) at Mitribah, Kuwait, 30 June
Coldest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: -27.7°C (-17.9°F) at Geo Summit, Greenland, 2 June
Hottest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: 39.5°C (103.1°F) at Picos, Brazil, 4 June
Coldest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: -81.6°C (-114.9°F) at Dome Fuji, Antarctica, 13 June
(Courtesy of Maximiliano Herrera.)

Major weather stations that set (not tied) new all-time heat or cold records in June 2016
Baharia (Egypt) max. 48.8°C, 4 June
Choix (Mexico) max. 48.7°C, 5 June
Huites (Mexico) max. 50.0°C, 5 June
Beru (Kiribati) max. 34.8°C, 6 June; increased to 35.0°C on 9 June
Bilma (Niger) max. 49.0°C, 8 June; New national record high for Niger
Saragt (Turkmenistan) max. 47.3°C, 8 June
Paamiut (Greenland, Denmark) max. 23.6°C, 10 June
Tamanrasset Airport (Algeria) max. 40.2°C, 18 June 
Khamis Mushait (Saudi Arabia) max. 36.2°C, 18 June
Abha (Saudi Arabia) max. 38.1°C, 18 June
Altar (Mexico) max. 48.5°C, 19 June
Sonoyta (Mexico) max. 49.4°C, 19 June
Blythe (California,USA) max. 51.1°C, 20 June

Notes:
- On 4 June, Picos AWS in Brazil recorded 39.5°C, the highest temperature ever recorded in June in the Southern Hemisphere. Previous record was 39.3°C at Ibibobo in Bolivia.

- On 8 June, Koror AWS, Palau, hit 34.4°C (94°F), tying the highest reliable temperature ever recorded in Palau (34.4°C was also recorded on several occasions at Nekken Forestry and at Koror, most recently on 16 April, 2016.)

(Courtesy of Maximiliano Herrera.)

One all-time national heat record set in June 2016
One nation--Niger--set a record in June 2016 for its all-time hottest temperature on record. From January through July 16, 2016, a total of twelve nations or territories tied or set all-time records for their hottest temperature in recorded history. One all-time cold temperature record has been set so far in 2016 (in Hong Kong.) "All-time" record here refers to the warmest or coldest temperature ever reliably reported in a nation or territory. The period of record varies from country to country and station to station, but it is typically a few decades to a century or more. Most nations do not maintain official databases of extreme temperature records, so the national temperature records reported here are in many cases not official. Our data source is international weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, one of the world's top climatologists, who maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website. If you reproduce this list of extremes, please cite Maximiliano Herrera as the primary source of the weather records. Here are 2016's all-time heat and cold records as of July 16:

Hong Kong Territory (China) tied its all-time hottest record on July 7, 2016, when the mercury hit 37.9°C (100.2°F) at Happy Valley.

Niger set its all-time hottest record on June 8, 2016, when the mercury hit 49.0°C (120.2°F) at Bilma.

India set its all-time hottest record on May 19, 2016, when the mercury hit 51.0°C (123.8°F) at Phalodi.

Maldives set its all-time hottest record on April 30, 2016, when the mercury hit 35.0°C (94.8°F) at Hanimaadhoo.

Thailand set its all-time hottest record on April 28, 2016, when the mercury hit 44.6°C (112.3°F) at Mae Hong Son.

Cambodia set its all-time hottest record on April 15, 2016, when the mercury hit 42.6°C (108.7°F) at Preah Vihea.

Burkina Faso set its all-time hottest record on April 13, 2016, when the mercury hit 47.5°C (117.5°F) at Dori.

Laos set its all-time hottest record on April 12, 2016, when the mercury hit 42.3°C (108.1°F) at Seno.

Vanuatu in the South Pacific set its all-time hottest record on February 8, 2016, when the mercury hit 36.2°C (97.2°F) at Lamap Malekula.

Tonga set its all-time hottest record on February 1, 2016, when the mercury hit 35.5°C (95.9°F) at Niuafoou.

Wallis and Futuna Territory (France) set a new territorial heat record with 35.8°C (96.4°F) on January 10, 2016 at Futuna Airport. This is the second year in a row that Wallis and Futuna has beaten its all-time heat mark; the previous record was a 35.5°C (95.9°F) reading on January 19, 2015 at the Futuna Airport.

Botswana set its all-time hottest record on January 7, 2016, when the mercury hit 43.8°C (110.8°F) at Maun.

Hong Kong Territory (China) set its all-time coldest mark on January 24, 2016, when the mercury dipped to -6.0°C (21.2°F) at Tai Mo Shan.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

So now us night crew will stay up and watch the 00z GFS :P
502. Tcwx2
Yay, same thing was happening as it was with many of you, and also like many of you, I thought that I was banned. Anyway to sum up my comments that I was going to make I would like the Euro show a Tropical Storm for me to be fully on board in dealing with the tropical storm/hurricane that the GFS is spitting out for next week. Am not even really concerned about the track and intensity at this point rather just using it for eye candy and I won't worry about the track and intensity until about 5 days out unless extreme consistency is shown like it was with TS Colin. I am glad to be back and able to comment, 2 days without commenting is almost unbearable (LOL!!).
Quoting 501. HurricaneFan:

So now us night crew will stay up and watch the 00z GFS :P
Yep lol.
Quoting 484. sporteguy03:


Maps like these are to me more concerning then model run tracks 300 hours out and even the shear map taz posted is something to watch. Conditions overall are definitely better then the past years.


Hey, it just changed as of Wed. 10:05. Now SE Tx. is in the highly unfavorable area. Woo-hoo!
So ensembles do show some support starting to show for the July 31st wave, and have it heading west towards the Lesser Antilles, so we might as well have another storm on the heels of the first one.
If the GFS drops this storm the next run I think half this blog will commit suicide.lol
Quoting 506. washingtonian115:

If the GFS drops this storm the next run I think half this blog will commit suicide.lol

I'll give up weather completely :-)
Quoting 506. washingtonian115:

If the GFS drops this storm the next run I think half this blog will commit suicide.lol


Meteocide.
Quoting 506. washingtonian115:

If the GFS drops this storm the next run I think half this blog will commit suicide.lol
LOL .... mass hysteria ensues ....
512. Tcwx2
Here in Andalusia, AL it got up to 101°F today, the heat index got up to 110°F it was the hottest day so far. We got a shower with some gusty winds. Currently 80°F, just got through with a gust front now two gust fronts are colliding to my north and I am hoping for some storms and/or another stronger gust front.
Did yesterday's full moon look a bit weak? Not to worry. Each of the next 4 full moons will feature the moon thousands of miles closer to the earth than the previous one, making the moon bigger, and each of the next four full moons will also feature the moon being hundreds of thousands of miles closer to the sun than the previous one, making it brighter. Until in November an extraordinary event will occur that hasn't happened in my lifetime.....oh but telling that would spoil the surprise.
The last Earl was very nice looking, it did take it's time to develop in the Eastern Atlantic, very gradually.
A hurricane Earl this month would be early, right?
I feel like part of the reason why the ECMWF hasn't picked up much on the CV storm yet is because the tropical wave that it develops from hasn't formed yet. Once the TW forms we may start seeing the ECMWF picking up on the development.
Quoting 515. BaltimoreBrian:

A hurricane Earl this month would be early, right?

Yes.
Quoting 423. Patrap:






Quoting 415. cajunkid:

Link

Take it for what you want. I'm not posting to prove anything nor do I have an agenda.
Quoting 452. leofarnsworth:


It is so pathetic that anyone would have to apologize for putting forth an article, that could be relevant, in fear of being attacked.


An article that links to an anti-science conspiracy website isn't relevant to much. If that article was actually published today Craig was only off by almost 3 million square km on his claim of what NSIDC extent data shows.
Darby forecast track

Visible loop
Quoting 516. HurricaneFan:

I feel like part of the reason why the ECMWF hasn't picked up much on the CV storm yet is because the tropical wave that it develops from hasn't formed yet. Once the TW forms we may start seeing the ECMWF picking up on the development.
Quoting 516. HurricaneFan:

I feel like part of the reason why the ECMWF hasn't picked up much on the CV storm yet is because the tropical wave that it develops from hasn't formed yet. Once the TW forms we may start seeing the ECMWF picking up on the development.
The wave will begin to be visible on Satellite Pics on Friday.
522. IDTH
Quoting 445. washingtonian115:

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 10h10 hours ago
Atlantic basin SSTs west of 60W are record-warm- even beats 2005 now. Doesn't say much for #hurricane season though


Really hoping nothing taps it and strikes land.

Quoting 429. JRRP7:



Big reason why the GFS is locking in on development.

Quoting 514. Climate175:

The last Earl was very nice looking, it did take it's time to develop in the Eastern Atlantic, very gradually.

Could take a similar path to it too or perhaps the storm before it that year which was Danielle. Still too far out to figure out track.

Quoting 506. washingtonian115:

If the GFS drops this storm the next run I think half this blog will commit suicide.lol

If it does, it'll be because it's MJO forecast busted but it's only a matter of time before it makes it back into the Atlantic.

Quoting 375. Articuno:



That's a massive wave.

These big waves are only going to erode more of the Sal, leading the way to August which could see a takeoff in activity.
Quoting 501. HurricaneFan:

So now us night crew will stay up and watch the 00z GFS :P
what time does the 00z come out.
Quoting 520. Gearsts:



Could pass as a tropical depression...If Colin is a tropical cyclone, this is a tropical cyclone.
Quoting 523. tom1516:

what time does the 00z come out.

It starts running around 11:25 PM EDT and will likely reach the timeframe of the possible storm sometime between 12:30 and 12:45 AM EDT.
Quoting 523. tom1516:

what time does the 00z come out.
Next 10-20 mins should starting loading.
Quoting 526. Climate175:

Next 10-20 mins should starting loading.
thanks
Quoting 506. washingtonian115:

If the GFS drops this storm the next run I think half this blog will commit suicide.lol
Not the people on this site they live from disaster to disaster and always looking to next one with great expectation!
00z GFS on the running now.
Darby definitely maintaining it's own this evening as it starts trekking into the Central Pacific. Definitely impressed by its ability to sustain itself in marginal conditions! seeing some -70C bursts now as well. Impressive.

Quoting 504. pureet1948:



Hey, it just changed as of Wed. 10:05. Now SE Tx. is in the highly unfavorable area. Woo-hoo!

Your point?
532. JRRP7
Quoting 506. washingtonian115:

If the GFS drops this storm the next run I think half this blog will commit suicide.lol

I do not doubt it that GFS drops the system lol
Quoting 528. help4u:

Not the people on this site they live from disaster to disaster and always looking to next one with great expectation!


We wait for your disaster.
Quoting 533. RobertWC:



We wait for your disaster.
Everything on this site is about worst ever and what will happen every 5 ,10 ,years and what it will do to the world.When these do not happen they call you a denier and start building up the hype for what will be next big thing.
The roof of the world is on fire -

The fires are burning right next to beaches on the Arctic ocean –

Aqua/MODIS
2016/202
07/20/2016
06:55 UTC

Link
536. Tcwx2
Just can't stay up any longer, I'll see what the 00z and the 06z does in the AM, goodnight WU!
Quoting 532. JRRP7:


I do not doubt it that GFS drops the system lol


Okay, so the tropical wave is still there. Good sign. ;)
538. Tcwx2
I believe that your trying to stir up trouble by saying this. EDIT: Never mind, ignored.
Quoting 534. help4u:

Everything on this site is about worst ever and what will happen every 5 ,10 ,years and what it will do to the world.When these do not happen they call you a denier and start building up the hype for what will be next big thing.
Quoting 537. HurricaneFan:



Okay, so the tropical wave is still there. Good sign. ;)
Wonder if it will shift with the ensembles going even more west this run.
Quoting 534. help4u:

Everything on this site is about worst ever and what will happen every 5 ,10 ,years and what it will do to the world.When these do not happen they call you a denier and start building up the hype for what will be next big thing.


Thank-you for hacking up that right wing furball. As these furballs go I give this one a 3. Try to be more crazy and throw in some tin hat thinking.
120 hrs, Tropical Wave coming into view.
150 hrs.
Quoting 541. Climate175:

120 hrs, Tropical Wave coming into view.
night crew must be all hands on deck.

Starting to close off around 156 hours.
Dr. Masters, and Mr. Henson

The roof of the world is on fire -

Don't think this deserves a comment ?

Link


548. JRRP7
between 162h and 174h almost moving NW
Quoting 548. JRRP7:

between 162h and 174h almost moving NW
And then abruptly west.
204 hrs.
The ingredients are there for a hurricane to make a major impact on the US this summer or fall. I am very worried about this possibility. Earl can be the first hurricane to show us what the SSTs can really do in a favorable upper level atmospheric stage. Let's say shear remains low and I don't see why it won't, it can really put a dent in our historic storms that have made a large impact on society.
GFS has showed the Cape Verde storm for a few days in a row now, maybe this storm is not a ghost after all. ECMWF is also picking up on some slight development of the tropical wave, will be interesting to see how future runs turn out. Right now I'll say that there is about a 20% chance of development within 10 days in that region, and I could be a little conservative here with that estimate. If current trends continue - we could hear from the NHC on Friday or Saturday.
Placement of High a bit South for 00z run.
Look at the placement of the high
555. IDTH
Quoting 534. help4u:

Everything on this site is about worst ever and what will happen every 5 ,10 ,years and what it will do to the world.When these do not happen they call you a denier and start building up the hype for what will be next big thing.

If you don't like this site then why have you had an account on this site for the past 10 years? If you don't like it, the "delete account" link is always available. I also don't like your comment after you've been saying the "seasons dead nothing is gonna happen, dry air this and that" and literally as the season looks like it's gonna pick back up, you complain about all the WU users and about being denier.

First off, many people are deniers of your thinking so in many way's you could actually be interpreted as being a huge hypocrite as you've been building the hype of Sal and high shear (even though the shear statement is false info because you didn't actually do your research). If this season wound up being dead, you'd be like "See I told you so" and don't even deny that you wouldn't.
Quoting 554. washingtonian115:

Look at the placement of the high

Was just about to say that. The big H is stronger and more south on this run.
252 hrs.
Quoting 553. Climate175:

Placement of High a bit South for 00z run.

Perhaps it could push the cyclone into the Caribbean? That would be interesting...
Slow mover
Quoting 559. HurricaneFan:


Perhaps it could push the cyclone into the Caribbean? That would be interesting...
No, looks like it found a weakness.
Already starting to go NW
Quoting 559. HurricaneFan:


Perhaps it could push the cyclone into the Caribbean? That would be interesting...
Out to sea
564. IDTH
Quoting 556. Gearsts:

Was just about to say that. The big H is stronger and more south on this run.

I'm really getting 2000's vibes.
Quoting 557. Climate175:

252 hrs.


That position looks devastating for the Bahamas, FLorida and GOM.
Fishy fishy?
The path of the non existent storm isn't locked in place.The ensembles have continued to disagree with the operational about the path of "Earl".
This run is more of a Danielle 2010 track, but the ensembles still disagree greatly.
Dissipating
End of the run
Quoting 568. washingtonian115:

The path of the non existent storm isn't locked in place.The ensembles have continued to disagree with the operational about the path of "Earl".
LOL, just saw this is likely from the lone ensemble showing this scenario, but the majority of them were more west.
It appears Darby may come closer to Hawaii than previously thought. Interestingly, the most recent advisory actually calls for some slight intensification over the next few days. Something to watch.
Quoting 561. Climate175:

No, looks like it found a weakness.
heard a few years ago that one of the models was the least reliable, but I can't remember witch one. Please refresh my memory.
Quoting 554. washingtonian115:

Look at the placement of the high



GFS still has mid-Atlantic trough created by a weak trough leaving East Coast and absorbing the storm in the process per 500 mb maps on that run. If two ridges can bridge together and prevent the connection between weak trough and the upper low of the storm from happening, then we can start focusing on possible land threat. Until we get a trend toward that, which is still possible, this will be a fish storm.
EPAC is staying active. Invests 90E and 99E are in an environment conducive for formation.

Take a look at our full post here.

A post was removed. (Let alone making a ten-day forcast) don't know what to say next.
Quoting 575. Bluestorm5:



GFS still has mid-Atlantic trough created by a weak trough leaving East Coast and absorbing the storm in the process per 500 mb maps on that run. If two ridges can bridge together and prevent the connection between weak trough and the upper low of the storm from happening, then we can start focusing on possible land threat. Until we get a trend toward that, which is still possible, this will be a fish storm.


hmm with the 00Z Euro now complete Euro shows a weaker system but the setup is different its shows a stronger atlantic high and with no influence from weakness

this would be interesting this would set the systems track towards the Caribbean or Bahamas
Usually when storms in the EAtl strength fast they go out to sea, its not always but normally in the majority of this cases.
Re we are all going to die.....if there is nothing we can do then why do we keep talking about it.......it's not like the average joe is doing anything to burn less carbon or any government
Quoting 534. help4u:

Everything on this site is about worst ever and what will happen every 5 ,10 ,years and what it will do to the world.When these do not happen they call you a denier and start building up the hype for what will be next big thing.

Let me correct a statement for you.
When these happen and you deny 'm you will be called what you are.
What could possibly be the problem? Show some pride!
Quoting 580. 19N81W:

Re we are all going to die.....if there is nothing we can do then why do we keep talking about it.......it's not like the average joe is doing anything to burn less carbon or any government


whats up mate you sound in a even more dull depressing sad mood than what your normally sound like

whats going on
tell me
its the heat right ... man I tell you the heat is really killing me badly last few days
Darby is actually strengthening and it has an eye again, now. It is heading toward a very very favorable path, and it may cross into the WPAC.
Quoting 579. allancalderini:

Usually when storms in the EAtl strength fast they go out to sea, its not always but normally in the majority of this cases.


Yep. Even in years like 2005 that happens (remember Irene and Philippe?). Let's invent a hypothetical scenario here. Let's assume that every tropical cyclone we get between now and the end of September develop in the eastern Atlantic; they go on to become hurricanes east of 55W and north of 14N. I'm so confident that every single one of them would recurve east of the United States that I'd willingly induce a two-month coma to myself just to sleep through it all and see the predicted result, happily admitting I was wrong when I woke up if something different happened. I'd go even further and say that 65 to possibly even 75% of them would miss the entirety of the Caribbean, too. Like, I'm 85% sure I'd end up being right.

Once again, I do not understand the hype. Climatology isn't on your side with those systems if you want landfalls. I'd take seasons like 1983, 1992, or even 1994 where we're forced to wait several months for a decent landfall in the US (and in the case of 1994, nearly till the end of the season!) before I would a season where 95% of the cyclones recurve. Numbers are irrelevant unless you like statistics. Landfalls matter, even if you're not like me and DON'T actually want them.

And I don't need every storm to make landfall, of course. But I'd prefer a little more balance in the tracks than what we've been getting. Sorry if I'm not excited about hurricane #400 in the last 10 years becoming extratropical off the coast of Newfoundland. Because I'm not. :l

Already said it in the chat, but hey. Not everyone's there. :P
Quoting 583. NunoLava1998:

Darby is actually strengthening and it has an eye again, now. It is heading toward a very very favorable path, and it may cross into the WPAC.


you!!!!!!
OMG it is you isn't it
the same Nuno who was on Force-13
Good Morning; the heat for Conus continues today.  Already up to 80 this morning in the Florida Big Bend and here are the 5:00 pm highs today:

And here is the snapshot for the global tropics; E-Pac currently has the lead:


And the African wave; not much there to work with at the moment as I cannot see any signs of organization; however a large one that will help moisten the path for the ones that follow. Also note that it is headed towards very dry air and SAL in the Central Atlantic.



Quoting 588. weathermanwannabe:

And the African wave; not much there to work with at the moment as I cannot see any signs of organization; however a large one that will help moisten the path for the ones that follow. Also note that it is headed towards very dry air and SAL in the Central Atlantic.






read comment #488

SAL not that bad

plus this wave is to clean up the MDR and ready for season
test 1
Quoting 589. wunderkidcayman:



read comment #488

SAL not that bad

plus this wave is to clean up the MDR and ready for season


I do not get excited about long-term and/or isolated model runs, and tend to downcast long-shots, until we actually have a depression to track. Tropical storms are actually a rarity and most waves never develop. Just my nature.
Quoting 574. tom1516:

heard a few years ago that one of the models was the least reliable, but I can't remember witch one. Please refresh my memory.
The CMC.
Quoting 587. weathermanwannabe:

And here is the snapshot for the global tropics; E-Pac currently has the lead:



Good morning. Still trying to figure out the twin development potential areas in the South Indian ocean - in the middle of their winter..,,
06z GFS Ensembles.
Quoting 594. Climate175:

06z GFS Ensembles.


Ensembles shifts S and W again
I wouldn't take that 06z run too seriously, the ensembles highly still disagree. they are still stronger and much west still.
Quoting 594. Climate175:

06z GFS Ensembles.


yikes!!

Quoting 597. wunderkidcayman:



yikes!!


Not surprising, especially if the Twave doesn't develop right away and if the high remains strong....
Quoting 596. Climate175:

I wouldn't take that 06z run too seriously, the ensembles highly still disagree. they are still stronger and much west still.


and South
Big changes in the GFS from yesterday.
But the GFS, Euro, and CMC all put a low in the central Atlantic at 240 hours.
Just got to wait and see if the 12z GFS agrees.
Quoting 598. BahaHurican:

Not surprising, especially if the Twave doesn't develop right away and if the high remains strong....


Im thinking this might be the case
Quoting 600. Sfloridacat5:

Big changes in the GFS from yesterday.
But the GFS, Euro, and CMC all put a low in the central Atlantic at 240 hours.


I think we will see more models on board as the days go on
and all the models will change up over next few days
atm its just wait and watch
Quoting 602. wunderkidcayman:



Im thinking this might be the case
Unlike Kori, I'd happily watch all the majors go out to sea. However I'm realistic enough to understand that such a scenario is rather unlikely this year ....

Does it seem the models are placing that low south of SAL? If anything I thought the modeled storm would just tear the SAL apart and prepare the way for future storms to make there way unimpeded to the Carib.
I'm on board with the weaker, further west and south potentiality. Worth watching. I think it could find a sweet spot west of the Antilles, but this is just the beginning, so it also wouldn't surprise me if it fizzles.

It will be juicing up that atmosphere and creating a more conducive environment for future waves. I think we are in for a wild Atlantic ride in the next 90 days.

Quoting 606. rmbjoe1954:

Does it seem the models are placing that low south of SAL? If anything I thought the modeled storm would just tear the SAL apart and prepare the way for future storms to make there way unimpeded to the Carib.

That is a strong possibility. The GFS, now ECMCF, CMC show development so chances are higher. Track is still way up in the air though need to see how the waves handles the conditions out in front.
Well Southern Wisconsin may get lucky with the heat today. There is currently a squall line about 2- 3 hours out up in Central Wisconsin. This squall line's timing means it may not clear till about 12-1 right now. that means while it will get hot it may not get as hot as this squall line may take some of the humidity out of the air. Hopefully. This squall line's definetly got a lot of energy ahead as we currently have a dew point of 73 here. It could last a while.
Quoting 605. BahaHurican:

Unlike Kori, I'd happily watch all the majors go out to sea. However I'm realistic enough to understand that such a scenario is rather unlikely this year ....



I agree. I do hope all major hurricanes miss landmasses in the Western Atlantic. There is plenty of fuel with deep warm waters in most areas and lower shear. Conditions are better then some can see right now because July is quiet. It really is only a matter of time until the Atlantic gets going.Also with the High over Central Atlantic remaining steady in position it is unlikely for something to recurve before 50-60 W anything after that is just timing.
Who is that "masked wave"??

Quoting 612. Grothar:

Who is that "masked wave"??



It's a binary system lol. 2 for 1.

This is going to be a wicked season Gro.

and South - well now that was a surprise. My crystal ball said too far out to speculate anything right now.
Quoting 612. Grothar:

Who is that "masked wave"??




Could be Magneto based on the color of the mask......................................

La Nina is strengthening and the warm PDO signal is not nearly as robust as last month, it will be interesting to see if this trend continues into the peak of the season.

Quoting 561. Climate175:

No, looks like it found a weakness.
Sorry folks, no private troughs to save the U.S. this year, and the weakness in the high will strenghten driving a few storms into the Gulf, Florida, and Southeast this year, maybe a chance for the Norhteast too.
Quoting 617. NativeSun:

Sorry folks, no private troughs to save the U.S. this year, and the weakness in the high will strenghten driving a few storms into the Gulf, Florida, and Southeast this year, maybe a chance for the Norhteast too.
Yes, that's why the track can not be yet determined, long way from that, ensembles are shifting more and more closer to land.
Batman
Quoting 612. Grothar:

Who is that "masked wave"??


Good morning. That tropical wave yesterday did not bring much rain, yet I am thankful .... my plants are thankful
Good morning

It's 89, overcast, and already feeling like 103 outside. Just took a walk to the local deli to pick up my morning coffee and felt ill by the time I got home (less than a four-minute walk).

Glad to see the blog back to normal. Tried a couple of times to post last night with no luck. Anyway, following the blog, perhaps more than I usually do these last few days. It's that time of year, isn't it.....

Hope all is well out there!

Lindy
Quoting 613. rmbjoe1954:



They keep rolling off!
Quoting 609. Geoboy645:

Well Southern Wisconsin may get lucky with the heat today. There is currently a squall line about 2- 3 hours out up in Central Wisconsin. This squall line's timing means it may not clear till about 12-1 right now. that means while it will get hot it may not get as hot as this squall line may take some of the humidity out of the air. Hopefully. This squall line's definetly got a lot of energy ahead as we currently have a dew point of 73 here. It could last a while.


I'm thinking one or more Mid Atlantic hot days this weekend and next week may be mitigated by such a scenario
Looking not as bad as late July 2011 or late June/early July 2012 or mid July 1988 or July 4'th weekend 1999 or .. or ..
2016 set to be world's hottest year on record, says UN

The world is on track for its hottest year on record and levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have reached new highs, further fuelling global warming, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has said.

June marked the 14th consecutive month of record heat for land and oceans, the United Nations agency said on Thursday. It called for the speedy implementation of a pact reached last December to limit climate change by shifting from fossil fuels to green energy by 2100.

The average temperature in the first six months of 2016 was 1.3C warmer than the pre-industrial era in the late 19th century, according to Nasa.

More ...
Quoting 617. NativeSun:

Sorry folks, no private troughs to save the U.S. this year, and the weakness in the high will strenghten driving a few storms into the Gulf, Florida, and Southeast this year, maybe a chance for the Norhteast too.


Hopefully the public option will come into play :-)


A Northeast trough with axis east of 70W is not out of the question at all and it would save us here in the Mid Atlantic and north if it occurred. That's a bad pattern for the Southeast, FL and the Gulf coast though.

I still expect a bad season for the Mid Atlantic and Northeast though despite the straw I'm grasping at above.
The ensembles continue to point towards land interaction while the operational continues to disagree.There will be a trough on the east coast and some of our local forecasters have touched on that trough as they are trying to give us some light at the end of the tunnel after the expected triple digit heat.There are a lot of questions right now on where the possible storm might go.
Oh, and one more thing ....

If you think you've had a hard day, try out my morning so far.

I went outside to coax my dog back into the house. Had to go around the side of the house to get her. As I rounded the corner, I slipped on a fallen mango, and landed on a fire ant nest. NOT a pretty scene! Lends new meaning to "slipped on a banana peel".... add that to me making salsa the other day and not using gloves when dealing with the jalapenos. What an idiot I am! Anyway, rubbing a teaspoon of olive oil on your hands for three minutes, twice, kills the burn and makes for a happier Lindy!

Massive dry air in the MDR
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 597. wunderkidcayman:



yikes!!




Yeah, not good solution.
Quoting 628. washingtonian115:

The ensembles continue to point towards land interaction while the operational continues to disagree.There will be a trough on the east coast and some of our local forecasters have touched on that trough as they are trying to give us some light at the end of the tunnel after the expected triple digit heat.There are a lot of questions right now on where the possible storm might go.
Sorry Wash115, Private Trough mibnt be around for a very short time, but the way the higbis setting up out West, rhis calls for Private trough to set up to far West to do any good, for deflecting storms out to sea. The high will be in place on the East Coast most of the active months of the hurricane season, and their will be a few fish storms, but this set up does not look good for the Bahamas, the Gulf States, Florida, all the way up to the Northeast, including the Carribean. The party is over for a lot of people, so be prepared, well prepared, and good luck to you all.