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Eastern Pacific Hurricane Parade Continues; Record Ocean Heat Energy in the Atlantic

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 3:04 PM GMT on July 18, 2016

The Eastern Pacific's unending parade of tropical cyclones continues. The latest member of the show is Tropical Storm Estelle, which got its name Friday night. Joining the party since Tropical Storm Agatha started on July 2 have been Category 4 Hurricane Blas, Category 2 Hurricane Celia, Category 3 Hurricane Darby, and soon-to-be Category 1 Hurricane Estelle (Estelle was a high-end tropical storm with 70 mph winds at 11 am EDT Monday.) This puts us well ahead of climatology: the Eastern Pacific usually does not see its fifth named storm until July 22, its fourth hurricane until August 12, and its second major hurricane until August 19. An average season has 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.


Figure 1. VIIRS visible satellite image of ex-Hurricane Celia, Hurricane Darby, and Tropical Storm Estelle taken on Sunday afternoon, July 17, 2016. Image credit: NASA.

Frank and Georgette on the way?
In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC identified two more areas of possible tropical cyclone formation in the Eastern Pacific off the Pacific coast of Mexico. They gave 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 20% to one area, and 0% and 50% to the other. Both the European and GFS models show the potential for these areas of concern to become Tropical Storm Frank and Tropical Storm Georgette by late this week or early next week--though the models are not as gung-ho about developing these systems as they were for Agatha, Blas, Celia, Darby, and Estelle. The two potential new storms are expected to take a track to the west or west-northwest away from or parallel to the coast of Mexico. The July record for named storms forming in the Eastern Pacific is seven, set in 1985, according to NHC hurricane scientist Eric Blake. If we get a Tropical Storm Georgette this year, that would tie the July record.

The Atlantic remains quiet--but beware of this year's ocean heat content!
As is usually the case when the Eastern Pacific is active, the Atlantic is quiet. This inverse correlation in activity occurs because the conditions over the Eastern Pacific driving this July's bounteous activity--surface low pressure and rising air--creates a compensating area of sinking air over the tropical Atlantic. This sinking air creates surface high pressure and dry weather--the antithesis of conditions needed for tropical cyclone formation. There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming five days. Don't expect to see much activity in the Atlantic until the Eastern Pacific's burst of activity slows down. When we finally do get the surface low pressure, rising air, low wind shear, plentiful low to mid-level moisture and an African tropical wave needed to spawn an Atlantic hurricane, watch out. Record to near-record levels of heat energy are in the Atlantic in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and waters surrounding the Bahamas (Figure 2), exceeding even the heat energy that was available during the notorious Hurricane Season of 2005. This year's high levels of ocean heat content in the Atlantic increases the odds of dangerous rapidly-intensifying major hurricanes if the other conditions needed for intensification are present.


Figure 2. Total oceanic heat content (called the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, or TCHP) in kilojoules per square centimeter (kJ/cm^2), for July 15 for the years 2005 - 2016. TCHP was at near-record or record values over much of the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and waters surrounding the Bahamas in July 2016. TCHP in excess of 90 kJ/cm^2 (orange colors) is commonly associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Bob will be back with a new post on this week's U.S. heat wave later today.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Oooofh
s fl is always vulnerable but wow is the ocean water temp warm this yr. beware right
Big difference between 2005 and 2016 heat content!!!
plenty of energy to support a pair of monsters.
Thanks Dr and Mr.Henson.I have been keeping up with he TCHP maps and if anything gets a hold of those waters with very good upper level conditions someone will be yelping like a dog.So far there are no real candidates out there to take advantage.GFS at one point did take the current wave by S.A and developed it over those very warm waters but dry air looks to take it down for the count.
Thanks Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson!
Thanks Dr. Masters and Mr Henson. The implication for major hurricanes in the Atlantic is somewhat scary with the total amount of heat available. There may not be a lot of storms but they may be a lot of majors.
Levi Cowan %u200F@TropicalTidbits 53m53 minutes ago
(1/2) No modeled threat, but I never quite trust waves that move into Bahamas with an old front coming and 30C SST.

Michael Ventrice %u200F@MJVentrice 1h1 hour ago
30C temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico. If we ever get some favorable atmospheric forcing, would fuel big storms
Wow, that heat content is scary. Thanks for the update gentlemen!
The heat content is not that impressive near the Lesser Antilles.
Quoting 8. washingtonian115:

Levi Cowan %u200F@TropicalTidbits 53m53 minutes ago
(1/2) No modeled threat, but I never quite trust waves that move into Bahamas with an old front coming and 30C SST.

Michael Ventrice %u200F@MJVentrice 1h1 hour ago
30C temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico. If we ever get some favorable atmospheric forcing, would fuel big storms
Yeah, Levi's comment is why I'm watching the progress of the Twave currently near 40W with great interest. While none of the models develop it, that the GFS puts its energy in our area next week makes me wary. I do remember that the 31st July is the anniversary of the Nassau Hurricane, which struck in 1926 ....
"The 1926 Nassau hurricane, known as the San Liborio hurricane in Puerto Rico, was a destructive Category 4 hurricane that affected the Bahamas at peak intensity." It was active July 22 to August 2.
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 5h
Euro still trying to hit all time record of 106 in DC on Sunday. Severe heat in nation this weekend. July Fry underway

I really hope not...Triple digit heat is not welcomed here.
Please stop!
Quoting 13. Gearsts:

Please stop!



More depressing news.
..for those who skip straight to comments in Masters' & Henson's blog...

"When we finally do get the surface low pressure, rising air, low wind shear, plentiful low to mid-level moisture and an African tropical wave needed to spawn an Atlantic hurricane, watch out.

Record to near-record levels of heat energy are in the Atlantic in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and waters surrounding the Bahamas (Figure 2), exceeding even the heat energy that was available during the notorious Hurricane Season of 2005.

This year's high levels of ocean heat content in the Atlantic increases the odds of dangerous rapidly-intensifying major hurricanes if the other conditions needed for intensification are present."

HurricaneTracker App @hurrtrackerapp 21h
Appears we have a real chance of July ending with no named storms in the Atlantic. Mid-level dry air & Saharan dust are big inhibitors
Quoting 13. Gearsts:

Please stop!
<="http://i.imgur.com/6GJmeqP.gif?1" style="max-width: 501px; width: 500px;">
Did I see 4 more potential named storms on there?
19. Ed22
Don't be too surprised if we don't get any names for the ending part of July into October, this year is a bust with the Eastern Pacific Sizzling with cyclones coming after one other.
Dry air and wind shear. That's what matters.
In 2005 practically every wave developed into a named system. I like watching the videos of the season from start to finish.
Back in 2005, one thing I noticed was the presence of a lot of convection in the eastern Caribbean for a large percentage of the hurricane season. That's something we haven't seen in a while.
The past couple seasons the Caribbean has been a desert pretty much void of convection.
The first and last case of RI I witnessed on this blog was Felix.

Eric Blake @EricBlake12 35m
Big bowling balls of African dust forecast to roll off the coast thru the end of July- love these @RyanMaue maps
Quoting 14. CaribBoy:



More depressing news.

We saw this in 2013 with storm after storm in the eastern pacific with people hopping on here and saying "you'll regret saying..........when the season ends".That beast mode never came for the Atlantic with the MJO seemingly stuck in the east pacific with favorable conditions over there than over here in the atlantic where it was forecast. When it came to our side a pretty much devoid Atlantic was seen with dry sinking air every where and when the "switch" finally turned on we waited only to see a couple of weak storms and none were memorable.I just want to track another Igor like storm in the Atlantic is all.
Saw a cat 3/4 in late August 2005 that caused the largest relocation of Americans since the post civil war reconstruction.

I also saw that same Hurricane drive a 18ft storm surge to the top of my levee along the lake S shore.


Those in Miss saw a 29-30ft surge inundation that took family from me and many others.

Calamity..when it comes, is something that stays with you forever.


I know it can happen again any given season.


I never root it on.


Quoting 12. washingtonian115:

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 5h
Euro still trying to hit all time record of 106 in DC on Sunday. Severe heat in nation this weekend. July Fry underway

I really hope not...Triple digit heat is not welcomed here.


106 seems like a stretch but over 100 is likely sometime this weekend and possibly all three days Sat-mon. My bet is one day makes it just over and the others are upper 90s.

Quoting 24. Patrap:

Saw a cat 3/4 in late August 2005 that caused the largest relocation of Americans since the post civil war reconstruction.

I also saw that same Hurricane drive a 18ft storm surge to the top of my levee along the lake S shore.


Those in Miss saw a 29-30ft surge inundation that took family from me and many others.

Calamity..when it comes, is something that stays with you forever.


I know it can happen again any given season.


I never root it on.





A thousand pluses for this one. I also would be happy never to see another TC make landfall or track through any inhabited area, ever! The only caveat is that weak ones are an important part of the rainfall budget in the mid and upper tropics and subtropics and even in DC about 30% of September rainfall occurs from TC or their remains.
Quoting 12. washingtonian115:

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 5h
Euro still trying to hit all time record of 106 in DC on Sunday. Severe heat in nation this weekend. July Fry underway

I really hope not...Triple digit heat is not welcomed here.


Mostly sunny, high near 40... C!
thanks doc/bob
nice lunch time read

enjoy the next 3 days cause after that well it will be like working in a pizza shop next to the oven for a bit
GOM/Carib. SST Anomaly map from 7/14/16

Storms building fast in this Seast inland fetch...


Quoting 25. georgevandenberghe:



106 seems like a stretch but over 100 is likely sometime this weekend and possibly all three days Sat-mon. My bet is one day makes it just over and the others are upper 90s.



104 to 108 is likely
u gonna have boil tomatoes on the vine


A wet summer has led to a bumper crop of cherry tomatoes.
Quoting 31. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


104 to 108 is likely
u gonna have boil tomatoes on the vine


I don't see DC getting the core of this heat. If I were in the upper midwest though I would be worried about the kind of heat not seen in many decades.

BTW above 40C kills tomato pollen and one such day means no tomatoes for about ten to fourteen days starting 40 days post event.
here is the start of if on Thursday

Quoting 23. washingtonian115:


We saw this in 2013 with storm after storm in the eastern pacific with people hopping on here and saying "you'll regret saying..........when the season ends".That beast mode never came for the Atlantic with the MJO seemingly stuck in the east pacific with favorable conditions over there than over here in the atlantic where it was forecast. When it came to our side a pretty much devoid Atlantic was seen with dry sinking air every where and when the "switch" finally turned on we waited only to see a couple of weak storms and none were memorable.I just want to track another Igor like storm in the Atlantic is all.


The SST set up and tropical cyclone heat potential this year is quite different though. This was 2013 during the peak of the season:



In quite a lot of places 2016 is already ahead and by large margins and it's only mid July. It's quite scary to think what could happen this year if the conditions align right. Also, 2013 did have Ingrid ("curse of the I storm") which did a lot of damage to Mexico in terms of memorable storms. It appears the vigorous tropical waves from last year have continued this year. Considering how much activity we had in the mdr last year despite very hostile conditions, I don't see why we can't have a few storms this year with better conditions. Certainly looks to be quiet until mid August - but with these waves we might get formation of a storm not predicted by models.
Never said I was rooting for "calamity" or for a storm to make landfall and cause destruction and even if it did make landfall we as humans do not control the steering currents because it is not in our power to do so.There is absolutely nothing we can do about it but prepare and get out the way.I can also not control where people move to or live.I was not there when they made the decision to pack there things and live a life on the coast.You have to know what you are getting into with the weather/climate where ever you move.If people have a problem with others who come on here to track T.C's during the summer why are you on here then? Some people just see what they want to see.I said another Igor like storm (which at its peak was a upper end cat 4 in the middle of the ocean) would be nice.
Wow, just look at that Strong High.
Quoting 36. Envoirment:



The SST set up and tropical cyclone heat potential this year is quite different though. This was 2013 during the peak of the season:



In quite a lot of places 2016 is already ahead and by large margins and it's only mid July. It's quite scary to think what could happen this year if the conditions align right. Also, 2013 did have Ingrid ("curse of the I storm") which did a lot of damage to Mexico in terms of memorable storms. It appears the vigorous tropical waves from last year have continued this year. Considering how much activity we had in the mdr last year despite very hostile conditions, I don't see why we can't have a few storms this year with better conditions. Certainly looks to be quiet until mid August - but with these waves we might get formation of a storm not predicted by models.
Wonder what Ian will do, I know everyone from CWG wondering too due to there being a forecaster named Ian from there.
About the only thing that seems to thrive in that kind of heat are my sweet potato vines. Even my watermelon vines look defeated by the end of the day. Been a hot, but consistently wet summer here in central SC. Lots of severe thunderstorms.

Quoting 34. georgevandenberghe:



I don't see DC getting the core of this heat. If I were in the upper midwest though I would be worried about the kind of heat not seen in many decades.

BTW above 40C kills tomato pollen and one such day means no tomatoes for about ten to fourteen days starting 40 days post event.
Thanks for the update; what we have been seeing in recent weeks, as far as a potential threat to the US is concerned during the Cape Verde part of the season, is persistent low shear around the Bahamas, Florida, and the Gulf and very warm ssts in the same regions.  If the right wave/storm is able to get near Florida/Bahamas without significant land interaction (to the North of the Greater Antilles) or slip though the Yucatan Channel into the Gulf under low shear conditions, then we could see a major threaten Florida or the Gulf this season IMHO.  That is why that little wave to the North of PR is interesting to me in terms of the current steering patterns setting up going into August in a few weeks:

 
12z GFS is now picking up on what the ensembles were saying before on the July 27th wave.
Greetings and Blessings to All!

Quite another insightful and invaluable post by Dr. Masters & Henson especially in light of the climatological peak which is still ahead of us. Let us hope and pray that none of these potential cyclonic storms which may be primed to take advantage of this year's record TCHP will be any landfalling monsters.
Also, the mid-atlantic wave seems to be holding its own quite well thus far & bears watching as well as the cluster of systems now in Southern Caribbean sea near Central America...
45. SLU
Quoting 42. Climate175:

12z GFS is now picking up on what the ensembles were saying before on the July 27th wave.


Will it survive?

max sat afternoon 2m surface temp
throw in a 10 to 15 degree humidex
u be feeling like 107 to 112 depending on heat index
its also 96hrs away so could be changes
maybe even hotter but we wait too see

georgevandenberghe looks like 97 for sat as per 12z waiting on the rest of the model run to update
Quoting 45. SLU:



Will it survive?


ya right about the right time for something to show up in normal year long ways to go

Can I get a hmmm?
for lower lakes
heat rtns end of week
temps 85 to 95
with heat indexes 100 too 105
slight relief on sunday
temps 5 to 10 degrees cooler
Quoting 45. SLU:



Will it survive?


It's quite vigorous, my next question is, will it still be there next run?
lol yeah..okay GFS ....we've seen how this ends....
Can anyone see the image? it is not showing up for me

Quoting 52. washingtonian115:

lol yeah..okay GFS ....we've seen how this ends....
Can anyone see the image? it is not showing up for me




Dear God, it's coming right at us! Honey, grab the kids, we're heading to your mother's house!
sun 18z hr 12z gfs
Quoting 46. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

max sat afternoon 2m surface temp
throw in a 10 to 15 degree humidex
u be feeling like 107 to 112 depending on heat index
its also 96hrs away so could be changes
maybe even hotter but we wait too see

georgevandenberghe looks like 97 for sat as per 12z waiting on the rest of the model run to update



Sunday afternoon 21Z had us in a closed 39C contour.. probably 103-104F with contour interval every 3C (not my graphic).

update.. my eyes and memory played tricks on me.. I'm on the 39C contour and the closed area is much smaller than I remembered.. 102F if that verifies exactly.
From the NOAA Mariner's Guide to tropical cyclones. We are going to see an increase in wave activity across the Atlantic over the next 5 weeks. A very small number of them will develop but they are going to really moisten up the environment for the waves that will follow starting the last week in August through the first two weeks of September when we will probably get a storm cluster of 2-3 hurricanes. I have not been counting but the current t-wave in the Central Atlantic is probably about the 10th this season (starting as of June 1st).


Each hurricane season approximately 60 of these waves cross the tropical North Atlantic. Although the majority of these waves pass through the basin without any significant tropical cyclone development, passage of these waves is often accompanied by squally weather with brief periods of higher sustained winds.



Quoting 52. washingtonian115:

lol yeah..okay GFS ....we've seen how this ends....
Can anyone see the image? it is not showing up for me


I can, now once GFS shows this 5 more times, I may start to believe it.
60. SLU
Quoting 57. Gearsts:




Dry air kills it
61. SLU
Quoting 60. SLU:



Dry air kills it
seems so
Quoting 62. Gearsts:


Shades of 2013...The MJO is stuck...for a on coming la nina the east pacific sure is incredibly active...
I want to see if the 12z GFS ensembles show something too, I know this morning's 00z and slightly 06z had it for the July 27th wave. You can't trust GFS like that 9-10 days out, so it's either a go or a bye- bye.
Quoting 13. Gearsts:

Please stop!



How does this correspond with a La Nina in-the-making?
Just asking ...
Thanks for the updates Gentlemen...

DOOM.....
70. SLU
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice · 1h1 hour ago

If we don't see any Atlantic tropical cyclones spin up July 25-Aug 3, we're likely going to have to wait to Aug 20-31 for another chance

Quoting 62. Gearsts:



What is causing this persistent rising motion in the EPac that can't seem to get out of the EPac?
It looks like that only storms that might form until mid august would more likely come from the Western Caribbean and the Gulf. Dry sinking air is far too prevalent for anything else right now in the North Central Atlantic.


SYNOPSIS 2016071800

P01L
12N, 77W
700 hPa


ECMWF: Initial pouch has a small lobe off to the SW, but tracked the larger NE center. Loses latitude as approaches Central America, then gains latitude over Eastpac. Dissipates near Mexico Pacific coast after 72 hours. Subsequent development appears to be of a new circulation.

GFS: (Website charts not available by operational deadline.) Tracks more westward with less latitude changes than in ECMWF. Dissipates over Eastpac after 60 hours.

UKMET:

NAVGEM:

HWRF-GEN:


ECMWF -6.8 0.9 track 72h
GFS -7.5 0.0 track 60h
UKMET
NAVGEM
HWGEN



SYNOPSIS 2016071800

P02L
11N, 56W
925 hPa


ECMWF: Only the low-level 925-hPa fields depict a small pouch, with a CL-trough intersection at only 12 and 36 hours. Dissipates after 36 hours.

GFS:

UKMET:

NAVGEM:

HWRF-GEN:


ECMWF -7.4 1.5 track 36h
GFS
UKMET
NAVGEM
HWGEN

Quoting 70. SLU:

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice · 1h1 hour ago

If we don't see any Atlantic tropical cyclones spin up July 25-Aug 3, we're likely going to have to wait to Aug 20-31 for another chance


What is causing the east pacific to hog the MJO? People will soon have to run out of the excuse "Well 2004...Well...2007..Well..2010...well 1998....".Another hyper active season looks to be in store for the east pacific.
Quoting 38. Climate175:

Wow, just look at that Strong High.
Interesting to see those shortwaves set up where they are ....



An animated recap gif of the 12z GFS run.
Quoting 74. washingtonian115:

What is causing the east pacific to hog the MJO? People will soon have to run out of the excuse "Well 2004...Well...2007..Well..2010...well 1998....".Another hyper active season looks to be in store for the east pacific.

I wonder the same thing...the MJO is just stuck there for some reason.
78. SLU
Quoting 74. washingtonian115:

What is causing the east pacific to hog the MJO? People will soon have to run out of the excuse "Well 2004...Well...2007..Well..2010...well 1998....".Another hyper active season looks to be in store for the east pacific.


I suspect the EPAC will run out of gas soon with all the upwelling taking place there. Looks like we gonna have to wait till well into August to get something reasonable going on our side though...
It's looking like it's going to be a stormy afternoon for a lot of Florida, especially the west coast. I just got a quick burst of heavy rain here south of Fort Myers. This is about a week straight of storms for my area about 15 miles S.E. of Fort Myers. I've been right in the sweet spot lately.
This morning one of our local meteorologist said today would be dry. lol
Quoting 71. HurricaneFan:


What is causing this persistent rising motion in the EPac that can't seem to get out of the EPac?


Maybe The Warm PDO ?
Quoting 43. NatureIsle:

Greetings and Blessings to All!

Quite another insightful and invaluable post by Dr. Masters & Henson especially in light of the climatological peak which is still ahead of us. Let us hope and pray that none of these potential cyclonic storms which may be primed to take advantage of this year's record TCHP will be any landfalling monsters.
Also, the mid-atlantic wave seems to be holding its own quite well thus far & bears watching as well as the cluster of systems now in Southern Caribbean sea near Central America...
I fully expect we'll get at least Frank from that Twave passing into the EPac today ....
Quoting 51. Patrap:


Watching the 40W ...
12z GFS Ensembles.
Here are the updated vort charts (11:00 am EST) for the surface and mid-levels in the Atlantic MDR:
850mb (Surface): you can see the vertical stacking starting again in the E-Pac at 90W for another potential storm.


500MB (Mid):
Quoting 61. SLU:


Shades of Hurricane Andrew.


73. Patrap
1:16 PM EDT on July 18, 2016 Re: Pouch 02

Doesn't look terribly hopeful .... perhaps it'll hang together long enough to bring needed rain to the NE Antilles ...
Then what? If nothing happens after August 20-31, i say, time to start lowering the numbers for the season.
Quoting 70. SLU:

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice · 1h1 hour ago

If we don't see any Atlantic tropical cyclones spin up July 25-Aug 3, we're likely going to have to wait to Aug 20-31 for another chance


Quoting 74. washingtonian115:

What is causing the east pacific to hog the MJO? People will soon have to run out of the excuse "Well 2004...Well...2007..Well..2010...well 1998....".Another hyper active season looks to be in store for the east pacific.


Well if we look at the current top analogs for the SST pattern we currently have, these are the storm totals for August onwards:

1958: 10-7-3
1959: 6-4-2
1960: 5-3-2
1998: 13-10-3
2003: 12-5-3

Average: 9-6-3

Add it onto the season total so far and that'll be 13-7-3. Average-slightly above average activity. The forecast analog seasons for the Aug-Sept-Oct forecast:

1954: 11-6-3
1959: 6-4-2
1988: 12-5-3
1998: 13-10-3
2000: 15-8-3

Average: 11-7-3

Add it onto the season total so far and that'll be 15-8-3. Above average activity. Of course analogs are only for guidance and every year is distinct.
Quoting 66. washingtonian115:

Shades of 2013...The MJO is stuck...for a on coming la nina the east pacific sure is incredibly active...


La Nina is an equatorial phenomenon and by itself drives circulation anomalies. However this year it is surrounded by warm temperature anomalies from the lower mid tropics poleward and perhaps this is masking out what would otherwise be a clear signal and preventing the classic response of previous La Nina transitions from El Nino.

Or maybe the atmosphere-ocean system is just more complex than we want to believe and our simplifications are breaking down as more data reveals the additional degrees of freedom in response.

Feeling old this morning :-(
Quoting 31. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


104 to 108 is likely
u gonna have boil tomatoes on the vine


Nah.. they'll be already boiled. Just pop 'em in the freezer pre-blanched.
Quoting 86. hurricanewatcher61:

Then what? If nothing happens after August 20-31, i say, time to start lowering the numbers for the season.
Guess it depends on your numbers for the season to begin with. Given that we already had 4 named storms, we only need 8 more to get an average season. I've seen the ATL crank out 8 systems in ONE month.

So I guess it depends on whether you think conditions will start to reflect cool to cool neutral ENSO conditions by the end of August or not. If so, another 10 - 14 systems in the ATL are entire within the realm of possibility. If you favor warm neutral to warm ENSO conditions, you may only expect 6 - 10 more.

Nothing I've seen so far makes me think any of the agencies typically forecasting TC numbers will be changing anything.
Oh so I see the CMC is it's old self, but only in it's ensembles lol.
Lots of heat in the tropical Atlantic is not good for us over here on the NW European seaboard, particularly when we get to the Autumn months/post equinox. We may not get the hurricanes and well defined circulating storms that you get in the US, but we do get really big depressions, and I suspect the high heat content in the Atlantic will bring over here a lot of moisture, probably far more than we want. Not good news, not for the UK and Ireland, at any rate. It'll be interesting to see how late September and October go, but by 'interesting', that's for all the wrong reasons. Watch this space ...
Quoting 19. Ed22:

Don't be too surprised if we don't get any names for the ending part of July into October, this year is a bust with the Eastern Pacific Sizzling with cyclones coming after one other.


1. You have zero idea what's going to happen next week much less in 2 months time.

2. Climatology shows us that the Atlantic takes a while to get going. The basin is much different than that of the EPAC.

3. I vote that everyone who downcasts a season in July when it is supposed to be slow should be IP banned permanently.
Ok, so what I have to say is, the Atlantic definitely should see some major hurricanes cruise through the NW Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, Gulf Stream, or western Atlantic. The amounts of heat potential available in these areas are extremely high this year, and if hurricanes are a method of transferring heat from the tropics to the higher latitudes, how else is this supposed to be accomplished with little or almost no storms forming the rest of the season? This heat energy is eventually supposed to be transferred poleward via the mechanism of tropical cyclones. So an average or below average season... I just don't buy that under any stretch of the imagination.
Beaucoup boomer's,

Again.



Quoting 88. georgevandenberghe:


La Nina is an equatorial phenomenon and by itself drives circulation anomalies. However this year it is surrounded by warm temperature anomalies from the lower mid tropics poleward and perhaps this is masking out what would otherwise be a clear signal and preventing the classic response of previous La Nina transitions from El Nino.
Or maybe the atmosphere-ocean system is just more complex than we want to believe and our simplifications are breaking down as more data reveals the additional degrees of freedom in response.


Simply put: Ocean heat content is so high that it may even prevent the "classical" order of the ENSO, right?
The most amazing fact of the past several seasons has been the lack of any majors impacting the US in almost 8 years now; we have had plenty of opportunities for strikes the past several years but have just been very lucky in terms of major hurricanes and not so lucky in terms of a few tropical storms that caused tremendous damage (Sandy). We also saw record hot SST's in the Bahamas last year that intensified a few storms that impacted the Eastern Seaboard. Conditions are very ripe this year, again, close to Florida and the Bahamas and in the Gulf but the truth of the matter is that we have no idea how many hurricanes will form over the remainder of the season and what their ultimate tracks and impacts may be. But given the current pre-season set-up, it is reasonable to assume that we will probably have about 8-10 more storms between now and the end November given traditional climatology. Time to really start paying attention to the African waves that can get away from the Cape Verdes intact and healthy on their way towards the Lesser Antilles.

It would be truly amazing, and fortunate, if the US/Caribbean did not see another major landfall again this season............I have no idea how much longer this streak can persist and whether this season will be different.


August Hurricane Climatology
These African Waves get their start all the way from the highlands of Ethiopia, clusters of thunderstorms form here and then move westward.
The emphasis placed by bloggers on the MJO being the main contributor to cyclogenesis in the Atlantic basin . I get the impression should the MJO never arrives in our neck of the woods, there will be no hurricane season. There are other factors that enable the formation of tropical storms through instability other than the MJO. The vast amount of dry and sinking air is the problem. I am sure there were years with a weak or diminish MJO and yet the season was active.
I noticed that the TCHP picture for 2016 features something stunning. Right near Florida, we have an area that looks to contain 140 KJ/cm^2 {"TCHP in excess of 90 kJ/cm^2 (orange colors) is commonly associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes."}. But that's not what impresses me most. There's an area of water practically touching this extreme energy water that might be like 30 KJ/cm^2 (It's hard to tell when the shades of blue are all so similar.] This extreme difference in heat content is what impresses me, as it makes me ask the question:

What would happen if a hurricane taking advantage of the excessively warm water then ran into this effectively warmless water?
ok so with the very high TCHP if we get a hurricane in the NW Caribbean whats the chances of it become a Cat 5
Quoting 79. Sfloridacat5:
It's looking like it's going to be a stormy afternoon for a lot of Florida, especially the west coast. I just got a quick burst of heavy rain here south of Fort Myers. This is about a week straight of storms for my area about 15 miles S.E. of Fort Myers. I've been right in the sweet spot lately.
This morning one of our local meteorologist said today would be dry. lol


Living in NW Florida I've seen it not rain with an 80% chance of rain and rain when there's been 0% chance! During the summer especially they have a hard time with forecasts due to the sea breeze storms!

Surface remnant of Celia winding down plenty of momentum north of Hawaii, bringing higher humidity and heavy showers over the islands, but no significant winds.
Quoting 101. Grothar:


Greetings...Waves are exiting farther north.
There was a rather nasty cell that came over my place from the wave that went over Florida yesterday.
Much to be desired here...

Quoting 103. wunderkidcayman:

ok so with the very high TCHP if we get a hurricane in the NW Caribbean whats the chances of it become a Cat 5
high
Question since the MJO can play a very important role with tropical systems and development..Did it stay in the Atlantic for the entire season of 2005?
111. Tcwx2
For entertainment purposes only: The Old Farmers Almanac says that a hurricane threat is possible for the deep south region for Aug 28-31. They also put it this way: "The greatest hurricane threats will be in mid- and late August and mid-September." While the Almanac is basically like flipping a coin, maybe they are on to something, or at least they may be somewhat accurate in saying that the activity won't pick up until the later part of August. Tell me what you think! Source: http://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange/region/us /8
112. IDTH
Quoting 36. Envoirment:



The SST set up and tropical cyclone heat potential this year is quite different though. This was 2013 during the peak of the season:



In quite a lot of places 2016 is already ahead and by large margins and it's only mid July. It's quite scary to think what could happen this year if the conditions align right. Also, 2013 did have Ingrid ("curse of the I storm") which did a lot of damage to Mexico in terms of memorable storms. It appears the vigorous tropical waves from last year have continued this year. Considering how much activity we had in the mdr last year despite very hostile conditions, I don't see why we can't have a few storms this year with better conditions. Certainly looks to be quiet until mid August - but with these waves we might get formation of a storm not predicted by models.

That's what worries me greatly about 2016, it's not even the number of storms that concern me, it's if one get's the environmental conditions and is around those waters and not just explosively intensifying but possibly record breaking intensification is possible.

Glad Dr Masters and Mr Henson took note of those waters because last night I actually decided to take note of that past 5 years leading up this year and this is what happens when a drought of hurricanes occurs over the gulf of mexico, Caribbean and Bahamas, the heat content piles up and rather than having multiple storms, you get the potential for something even worse provided the right atmospheric conditions.

For comparison sakes let's compare water temps and heat content from Hurricane Patrcia and Super Typhoon Haiyan when they both formed.

Haiyan

SST's


Heat Content


Patricia

SST's


Heat Content


Notice the temperature marks at 30 Celsius or above, there was a lot of areas in their paths with very hot waters. While the west pacific is known for it's very strong storms (with a lot of taller and colder cloud tops normally associate with west pacific storms) you can assume a lot of it has to do with the SST's and heat content at it's disposal.

While in the east pacific during Patricia you had SST's around 31 to 32 degree's Celsius in it's path and quite a bit of heat content (not as high as the west pacific of course) in it's path as well. These factors (NOTE this isn't accounting for shear and dry air, this is merely explaining what a storm is capable of becoming if the right conditions are in place with those type of waters at it's disposal) played a role in their explosive intensification and extremely cold cloud tops associated with these storms. Also remember that this same thing happened with Joaquin as it sat in the Bahamas for a long time and had much colder cloud tops associated with something you'd more likely see in the pacific because of the great environmental conditions already in place and a hot tub to sit in, that storm went on to explosively intensify.

Now look at today's present Atlantic:

SST's


Heat content


It doesn't matter if we have a dead season this year or a dead season the next year, all it will do is keep piling up more heat content and a year like this where a La Nina will soon be in play, don't be surprised when the atmosphere catches up in mid August and a storm get's in those conditions. I don't want this to happen and I'm not trying to create fear, I'm merely in a way just stating "Be careful for what you wish for." Enjoy the lull of July.
That broad area of disturbed weather down in the deep Southern Caribbean about to cross Costa Rica and Nicaragua is definately E-Pac bound:



Had major downpour here in downtown Houston, and still coming down

That Caribbean Water Temp is just setting up for a deadly storm, it makes me think of that show from TWC called "It Could Happen Tomorrow".
Quoting 99. Climate175:

These African Waves get their start all the way from the highlands of Ethiopia, clusters of thunderstorms form here and then move westward.

My understanding is that they originate from jet streaks in the African easterly jet, which forms along the convergence of moist and dry air within the African monsoon, so further west than Ethiopia. I suppose disturbances in the upper air easterly flow across the region have some influence as they interact with the African low level jet. Even so, the ultimate origin of this strong easterly flow isn't in Africa, but over Asia in connection with the northerly displacement of the subtropical ridge during the summer monsoon there.
"For now, the warm water is in place, there’s no doubt about that. Whether or not it becomes a factor during the heart of the season, still a month away from beginning, remains to be seen. It will be something to keep an eye on for sure."-Mark Sudduth.
Quoting 116. BayFog:


My understanding is that they originate from jet streaks in the African easterly jet, which forms along the convergence of moist and dry air within the African monsoon, so further west than Ethiopia. I suppose disturbances in the upper air easterly flow across the region have some influence as they interact with the African low level jet. Even so, the ultimate origin of this strong easterly flow isn't in Africa, but over Asia in connection with the northerly displacement of the subtropical ridge during the summer monsoon there.
Link
Quoting 102. AldreteMichael:

I noticed that the TCHP picture for 2016 features something stunning. Right near Florida, we have an area that looks to contain 140 KJ/cm^2 {"TCHP in excess of 90 kJ/cm^2 (orange colors) is commonly associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes."}. But that's not what impresses me most. There's an area of water practically touching this extreme energy water that might be like 30 KJ/cm^2 (It's hard to tell when the shades of blue are all so similar.] This extreme difference in heat content is what impresses me, as it makes me ask the question:

What would happen if a hurricane taking advantage of the excessively warm water then ran into this effectively warmless water?


Answer: maybe not as much as you might expect from the low TCHP in the image. From an email conversation with hurricane expert and oceanographer Dr. Richard Yablonsky:

In the deep ocean, vertical mixing of the waters due to the action of a hurricane's winds on the water reduces the sea surface temperature, and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP, also called the Ocean Heat Content, OHC), represents the integrated ocean temperature profile from the sea surface to the depth of the 26°C (79°F) isotherm.

In shallow regions, 26°C or warmer water may extend all the way to the bottom. That is currently the case along most of the continental shelf waters along the Gulf of Mexico coast, as one can see by comparing the depth of the 26°C isotherm image from NOAA/AOML to the bathymetry image:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/ NEW/2016199god26.png

http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1397/html/images/Con tour300dpiWGS84.jpg

In this case, the OHC may appear relatively low simply because there is not sufficient depth over which to integrate the ocean temperature profile. Wind-driven vertical mixing of the upper ocean with the underlying colder water by a hurricane will not cool the surface waters and decrease the strength of the storm because there is no underlying cold water to mix to the surface. Instead, cooling is dominated by heat escaping to the atmosphere, which is typically a less efficient way to the cool the ocean. Thus, in shallow waters, the low pre-storm OHC value may cause one to overestimate the expected storm-core SST cooling and subsequent negative impact on tropical
cyclone intensity.

A discussion of the effects of surface heat-flux induced SST changes on tropical cyclone intensity can be found here:

http://www.po.gso.uri.edu/Numerical/tropcyc/pubs/ GRL_shen_and_ginis_2003.pdf

Jeff Masters
Quoting 111. Tcwx2:

For entertainment purposes only: The Old Farmers Almanac says that a hurricane threat is possible for the deep south region for Aug 28-31. They also put it this way: "The greatest hurricane threats will be in mid- and late August and mid-September." While the Almanac is basically like flipping a coin, maybe they are on to something, or at least they may be somewhat accurate in saying that the activity won't pick up until the later part of August. Tell me what you think! Source: http://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange/region/us /8

They're playing it safe as early September is the statistical highpoint of the Atlantic hurricane season, and this year, will likely be right on target.
Quoting 111. Tcwx2:

For entertainment purposes only: The Old Farmers Almanac says..."The greatest hurricane threats will be in mid- and late August and mid-September."
Wow. Really going out on a limb, aren't they? ;-)



The Farmer's Almanac is a quaint collection of homespun folklore. And it's full of profound-seeming nuggets of wisdom that are really just restatements of the obvious and sensible: "An Early Killing Frost Means A Bad Late Harvest", or "Spring Rains Are Needed For A Summer Bounty". Validity-wise, I'd put it right there with Ouija boards, tarot cards, and casting runes...
Quoting 96. EmsiNasklug:


Simply put: Ocean heat content is so high that it may even prevent the "classical" order of the ENSO, right?



The technical scientific response.

"Yeah.. pretty much"
Quoting 122. Neapolitan:

Wow. Really going out on a limb, aren't they? ;-)



The Farmer's Almanac is a quaint collection of homespun folklore. And it's full of profound-seeming nuggets of wisdom that are really just restatements of the obvious and sensible: "An Early Killing Frost Means A Bad Late Harvest", or "Spring Rains Are Needed For A Summer Bounty". Validity-wise, I'd put it right there with Ouija boards, tarot cards, and casting runes...


They've always forecast winter to be colder than the previous summer and never been wrong :-)
Quoting 122. Neapolitan:

Wow. Really going out on a limb, aren't they? ;-)



The Farmer's Almanac is a quaint collection of homespun folklore. And it's full of profound-seeming nuggets of wisdom that are really just restatements of the obvious and sensible: "An Early Killing Frost Means A Bad Late Harvest", or "Spring Rains Are Needed For A Summer Bounty". Validity-wise, I'd put it right there with Ouija boards, tarot cards, and casting runes...
don't forget the chicken bones and tea leaves
It looks like Florida will be hit by two tropical waves coming up.One late tonight and one early Wednesday.
Quoting 119. Climate175:

Link

But then there's this:
Link

Looks like there may be a debate about this, or maybe as I noted, interaction occurs between the two dynamics.
Quoting 128. BayFog:


But then there's this:
Link

Looks like there may be a debate about this, or maybe as I noted, interaction occurs between the two dynamics.
Yea.
Quoting 73. Patrap:



SYNOPSIS 2016071800

P01L
12N, 77W
700 hPa


ECMWF: Initial pouch has a small lobe off to the SW, but tracked the larger NE center. Loses latitude as approaches Central America, then gains latitude over Eastpac. Dissipates near Mexico Pacific coast after 72 hours. Subsequent development appears to be of a new circulation.

GFS: (Website charts not available by operational deadline.) Tracks more westward with less latitude changes than in ECMWF. Dissipates over Eastpac after 60 hours.

UKMET:

NAVGEM:

HWRF-GEN:


ECMWF -6.8 0.9 track 72h
GFS -7.5 0.0 track 60h
UKMET
NAVGEM
HWGEN



SYNOPSIS 2016071800

P02L
11N, 56W
925 hPa


ECMWF: Only the low-level 925-hPa fields depict a small pouch, with a CL-trough intersection at only 12 and 36 hours. Dissipates after 36 hours.

GFS:

UKMET:

NAVGEM:

HWRF-GEN:


ECMWF -7.4 1.5 track 36h
GFS
UKMET
NAVGEM
HWGEN


Forecast calling for it to be in the 100s on Sunday, gonna be a steamer!
First measurable rain at my place in 3 weeks! since June 28th, bout time


While I believe there will be a number of strong hurricanes this season in the Atlantic basin, I also think it may be going too far out on a limb to correlate this too strongly with ocean heat content since hurricanes are not the sole mechanism for ventilating excess heat. The heat can be transported inland to fuel thunderstorms over the plains and the deserts. It can also be transported out via a stronger Gulf Stream. What share of heat ventilation is taken by each process will be a function of dynamics that are less certain than the single parameter of heat content. The most one can say is that it's LIKELY that we would see more and stronger hurricanes.
Quoting 134. RitaEvac:

First measurable rain at my place in 3 weeks! since June 28th, bout time





There was a good looking cell approaching my house, then it collapsed faster than a Turkish coup. That appears to be our last chance for a while. Sigh...
Quoting 136. Icantthinkofausernam:



There was a good looking cell approaching my house, then it collapsed faster than a Turkish coup. That appears to be our last chance for a while. Sigh...


Still have tomm
Well today is a significant weather history day here in Southern Wisconsin. It's the 20th anniversary of the Oakfield F5 tornado. The tornado cause F3-4 damage inside Oakfield and Caused F5 damage east of town where it swept away 4 houses and flattened corn to 1-2 inch stubble.
Quoting 120. JeffMasters:



Answer: maybe not as much as you might expect from the low TCHP in the image. From an email conversation with hurricane expert and oceanographer Dr. Richard Yablonsky:

In the deep ocean, vertical mixing of the waters due to the action of a hurricane's winds on the water reduces the sea surface temperature, and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP, also called the Ocean Heat Content, OHC), represents the integrated ocean temperature profile from the sea surface to the depth of the 26°C (79°F) isotherm.

In shallow regions, 26°C or warmer water may extend all the way to the bottom. That is currently the case along most of the continental shelf waters along the Gulf of Mexico coast, as one can see by comparing the depth of the 26°C isotherm image from NOAA/AOML to the bathymetry image:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/ NEW/2016199god26.png

http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1397/html/images/Con tour300dpiWGS84.jpg

In this case, the OHC may appear relatively low simply because there is not sufficient depth over which to integrate the ocean temperature profile. Wind-driven vertical mixing of the upper ocean with the underlying colder water by a hurricane will not cool the surface waters and decrease the strength of the storm because there is no underlying cold water to mix to the surface. Instead, cooling is dominated by heat escaping to the atmosphere, which is typically a less efficient way to the cool the ocean. Thus, in shallow waters, the low pre-storm OHC value may cause one to overestimate the expected storm-core SST cooling and subsequent negative impact on tropical
cyclone intensity.

A discussion of the effects of surface heat-flux induced SST changes on tropical cyclone intensity can be found here:

http://www.po.gso.uri.edu/Numerical/tropcyc/pubs/ GRL_shen_and_ginis_2003.pdf

Jeff Masters


I'm reading this closely. Let me see if I can start working things out in my head by looking at this one paragraph at a time:

"In the deep ocean, vertical mixing of the waters due to the action of a hurricane's winds on the water reduces the sea surface temperature, and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP, also called the Ocean Heat Content, OHC), represents the integrated ocean temperature profile from the sea surface to the depth of the 26°C (79°F) isotherm."

Take a piece of the ocean, measure it's surface temperature, and then start diving downward until the underwater temperture is 26 degrees Celsius (or right under the threshold of supporting hurricanes]. I assume this is done to determine how long a hurricane can stay over a particular part of the ocean before it stirs up waters too cold to support itself.

"In shallow regions, 26°C or warmer water may extend all the way to the bottom. That is currently the case along most of the continental shelf waters along the Gulf of Mexico coast, as one can see by comparing the depth of the 26°C isotherm image from NOAA/AOML to the bathymetry image:"

From looking at the definition of continental shelf, I'm assuming the last paragraph is saying the areas close to land are sufficiently warm for hurricanes.

"In this case, the OHC may appear relatively low simply because there is not sufficient depth over which to integrate the ocean temperature profile. Wind-driven vertical mixing of the upper ocean with the underlying colder water by a hurricane will not cool the surface waters and decrease the strength of the storm because there is no underlying cold water to mix to the surface. Instead, cooling is dominated by heat escaping to the atmosphere, which is typically a less efficient way to the cool the ocean. Thus, in shallow waters, the low pre-storm OHC value may cause one to overestimate the expected storm-core SST cooling and subsequent negative impact on tropical cyclone intensity."

The overall energy in shallow areas of the ocean (like the continental shelf) may appear to be lacking, but this is misleading. What hurricanes do when over water is churn up cooler waters at the deeper depths, but shallow waters don't allow this. But since warmer waters don't extend to great depths either, there is a different cooling that plays a bigger part than usual: That of the heat escaping to the atmosphere. This is not usually as efficient as water mixing though, which may lead one to believe that low Ocean Heat Content values in shallow parts of the ocean will kill a storm faster than probably will truly occur.

I think this about sums up what I read. Thank you for answering me earlier Dr. Masters.

Quoting 99. Climate175:

These African Waves get their start all the way from the highlands of Ethiopia, clusters of thunderstorms form here and then move westward.
There's actually been some research which suggests that the AEWs which we monitor are sourced in / influenced by the Indian monsoon ...
Quoting 100. stoormfury:

The emphasis placed by bloggers on the MJO being the main contributor to cyclogenesis in the Atlantic basin . I get the impression should the MJO never arrives in our neck of the woods, there will be no hurricane season. There are other factors that enable the formation of tropical storms through instability other than the MJO. The vast amount of dry and sinking air is the problem. I am sure there were years with a weak or diminish MJO and yet the season was active.
Maybe in June and July that is so. In the peak of the season [ASO] the MJO is an enhancer at best. Generally speaking, other elements such as dry air, vorticity, shear, play a larger role.
Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 2h2 hours ago

Today is Julian Day 200 of the #Hurricane Season- the climatological peak of high pressure- all downhill from here:)
looks like a inverted trough moving into the leeward and windward islands with alittle vortex around 55w 12n. get the buckets ready.
Nice foggy dripping day here in Costa Rica with a mid-afternoon temperature of 70.5 and a dew point of 68.
Russia is really burning now -
Scores of City-Sized Siberian Wildfires Spew 2,500 Mile-Long Plume of Smoke Over Northern Hemisphere

Today’s satellite pass by NASA’s LANCE MODIS array tells a dire story that practically no one in the global mainstream media is talking about. Northern and Central Siberia is burning. Scores of massive fires, some the size of cities and small states, are throwing off a great pall of smoke 2,500 miles long.

The vast boreal forests are lighting off like climate-change-enhanced natural fireworks. The tundra and permafrost lands — some of them frozen for hundreds of thousands to millions of years — are thawing and igniting. But for all of the loudly roaring fires, most of the major media reporting agencies have thus far produced only deafening silence.


Link
Quoting 105. BayFog:


Surface remnant of Celia winding down plenty of momentum north of Hawaii, bringing higher humidity and heavy showers over the islands, but no significant winds.
They should get some surf from this, yeah?

Quoting 113. weathermanwannabe:

That broad area of disturbed weather down in the deep Southern Caribbean about to cross Costa Rica and Nicaragua is definately E-Pac bound:




This looks bound to be Frank or Georgette .... though the pouch forecast wasn't excited.
Quoting 141. AldreteMichael:



I'm reading this closely. Let me see if I can start working things out in my head by looking at this one paragraph at a time:

The overall energy in shallow areas of the ocean (like the continental shelf) may appear to be lacking, but this is misleading. What hurricanes do when over water is churn up cooler waters at the deeper depths, but shallow waters don't allow this. But since warmer waters don't extend to great depths either, there is a different cooling that plays a bigger part than usual: That of the heat escaping to the atmosphere. This is not usually as efficient as water mixing though, which may lead one to believe that low Ocean Heat Content values in shallow parts of the ocean will kill a storm faster than probably will truly occur.

I think this about sums up what I read. Thank you for answering me earlier Dr. Masters.


In addition, you may want to consider that OHC values in shallow areas like the Great Bahama Bank are likely to be consumed fairly quickly; thus a fast-moving storm will not be much hindered, while a slow-moving one may run out of gas. This is why some systems can continue to strengthen right up to landfall, even though they are passing over a continental shelf.
Ewwww!!!





Quoting 144. islander101010:

looks like a inverted trough moving into the leeward and windward islands with alittle vortex around 55w 12n. get the buckets ready.
Right on schedule, too. Looks fairly amplified ... so slight chance of precip in the Leewards as well.

148. Grothar
4:48 PM EDT on July 18, 2016
2
+
Ewwww!!!

Gro, you notice all the hot water penned up in the Bight of Georgia? Wonder if something similar was seen when they had the Sea Islands hurricane ....
Quoting 79. Sfloridacat5:

It's looking like it's going to be a stormy afternoon for a lot of Florida, especially the west coast. I just got a quick burst of heavy rain here south of Fort Myers. This is about a week straight of storms for my area about 15 miles S.E. of Fort Myers. I've been right in the sweet spot lately.
This morning one of our local meteorologist said today would be dry. lol



It's been very frustrating locally, there have been very strong and very heavy thunderstorms in my area every day for two weeks, but we've only had one here locally once, many days the heavy rain cores end up within 0.25 miles from reaching us without actually giving us much, while areas less than a mile are getting 0.50-1.50 or more almost day to day.

We had one very strong thunderstorm that dumped 1.87 here, otherwise it's just 0.10 or 0.20 here and there or less the rest of the month totaling only a bit above 2.0 inches for the month so far. We are about 20% of average rainfall despite a pattern the usually drenches often and despite that it has been very active in the Tampa Bay area every day.

Meso scale features daily seem to be lining up just right such that we miss out. Very odd. I'm just waiting for the odd streak to end. Otherwise, I'm just used to seeing every cell approach then fall apart, then reform behind us, or split and part around us.

Now, I understand the nature of convection far too much to expect something major every day, but being that we consistently are getting about 80% less than every other part of the Tampa Bay this summer due to the unfolding of random mesoscale features, the randomness starts to not feel so random, even though it is still random, as frustrating as it may be.

Here's to hoping we stop getting skunked!
ECMWF showing the Pacific slowing down after Frank.
Quoting 139. TropicalAnalystwx13:




Quoting 138. hurricanefishfla:

Are you still tracking this boring E-Pac hurricane?



well you please this stop all ready we have the right too track what ever we like this is a topic weather blog



all so today blog topic is

Eastern Pacific Hurricane Parade Continues; Record Ocean Heat Energy in the Atlantic


so we are really on topic today when too tracking E PAC storms and if you dont like it take some time off from the blog then and come back in a week or too


No SAL!
I am in the process of creating ACE pages for every Atlantic/Pacific hurricane season back to 1950. As far as I know, this will make Wikipedia one of the only places on the internet with detailed info on the ACE of each storm going back so far in time.

1950 is actually a good season to reference with the ongoing discussion here. There wasn't one cyclone in July. By the end of November, it had an ACE of 211 units. Now is a bad time to be screaming bust.

Link
i think ESTELLE has peaked
Everyone have a safe weather evening. See Yall in the am.
Quoting 155. CaribBoy:



No SAL!
Wonderful Sight with SAL Clear Skies!
Quoting 155. CaribBoy:



No SAL!
Nice picture you got sunshine today we been having on and off showers
161. bwi
Quoting 145. CaneFreeCR:

Nice foggy dripping day here in Costa Rica with a mid-afternoon temperature of 70.5 and a dew point of 68.


Excellent, we're just planning a visit to your lovely country!
Quoting 139. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Nothing showing up on models even to first week of August looks like dry air ,shear,and dust will still rule through August.
Quoting 147. BahaHurican:

They should get some surf from this, yeah?

This looks bound to be Frank or Georgette .... though the pouch forecast wasn't excited.
In addition, you may want to consider that OHC values in shallow areas like the Great Bahama Bank are likely to be consumed fairly quickly; thus a fast-moving storm will not be much hindered, while a slow-moving one may run out of gas. This is why some systems can continue to strengthen right up to landfall, even though they are passing over a continental shelf.


Hurricane Charley rapidly intensified (from 110 mph to 145 mph in three hours) over the shallow waters off S.W. Florida. Link

Quoting 160. rockcity340:

Nice picture you got sunshine today we been having on and off showers


The sky cleared by 4pm, earlier was generally mostly cloudy. We had a few showers last night and also a few drops around 3pm today.

But as usual it's never enough to me!
Gusty thunderstorms ruining everyone's afternoon on the sand today!
This shows the stretch between Destin and Panama City Beach (NW FLO)
18z nam hr 75 or 21z shows heat building in Thursday afternoon
Quoting 150. BahaHurican:


148. Grothar
4:48 PM EDT on July 18, 2016
2
+
Ewwww!!!

Gro, you notice all the hot water penned up in the Bight of Georgia? Wonder if something similar was seen when they had the Sea Islands hurricane ....


I don't know Baha. That was 1893. I was still living in Europe at that time. All I know is these waters are warm We went this weekend and couldn't actually stay in the water long. It was too hot. Of course we all know it takes more than warm waters to form hurricanes, it should be some season to watch.
Stormy day here in the Northeast. Was at my summer internship at the Taunton, MA NWS, we were inundated with reports. Our Skywarn team does a great job reaching out for the reports. All in all it was a really well forecast event.

171. Tcwx2
Woo-hoo, wait...I shouldn't celebrate too early.
Quoting 152. HurricaneFan:

ECMWF showing the Pacific slowing down after Frank.

Hi folks, late night greetings from Germany which is experiencing a short but decent heatwave until Wednesday when storms should evict the heat once again. Of course it's hot or even much hotter in our neighbour's countries like France or Spain further to the south, too ...

Hard to concentrate on weather these days. The latest from rural mid Germany: After attacking and severely wounding several people in a local train with an axe, the axeman was shot dead by police. Umm, nutjob or terrorist? Well, no difference for the poor victims. Compassionate thoughts to the affected!

Peace with the current midnight pic from one of my favorite webcams in the Alps, located in Italian Malcesine, illuminated by the moon:


Source and much more: foto-webcam.eu.
173. SLU
Michael Lowry ‏@MichaelRLowry · 2h2 hours ago

So far this season, the Gulf is the warmest it's been going back in the record books (to 1982)

174. SLU
Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 3h3 hours ago

Today is Julian Day 200 of the #Hurricane Season- the climatological peak of high pressure- all downhill from here:)

175. SLU
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach · 4h4 hours ago  Moraga, CA

Vertical wind shear has averaged above-normal in Caribbean and below-normal over tropical Atlantic over past 30 days

Quoting 173. SLU:

Michael Lowry ‏@MichaelRLowry · 2h2 hours ago

So far this season, the Gulf is the warmest it's been going back in the record books (to 1982)




this wait in tell we get a storm in there with light wind shear
177. SLU
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice · 2h2 hours ago

East Pacific Hurricane streak to end in late July - Massive convectively suppressed CCKW to shut down convection

From the Miami NWS Discussion...

Another low level trough just north of Puerto Rico will also be
moving west northwest and should be moving through South Florida
late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Therefore, another round of
increase moisture will affect South Florida during this time frame
with scattered to numerous PoPs. Timing will again be late
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning for the east coast metro
areas of South Florida, with the western areas of South Florida
seeing the shower and thunderstorm activity in the afternoon hours
of Tuesday.



Link
18z GFS.
The 18z GFS is consistent wIth the 12z and the low is even stronger this run. Continue watching to see when the GFS kills it.
System reaches 1003 mb at 240 hours and then starts to weaken.
The GFS looks to bend it back towards the west.....
Heading Westward.
Quoting 183. Climate175:

Heading Westward.


Yeah, still holding on at 300 hours (1009 mb). That's a lot better than it did on the 12z run. And another low has come off the coast. humm
The East Atlantic will definitely need to be watched next week as a strong convectively-coupled kelvin wave moves across the region. The wave the GFS is showing this run is the same one it was developing a few days ago.

Quoting 184. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, still holding on at 300 hours (1009 mb). That's a lot better than it did on the 12z run. And another low has come off the coast. humm


actually the 12Z starts to kill it around 336 hours, the 18Z weakens it too around 348. It is further south in this run.
Quoting 185. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The East Atlantic will definitely need to be watched next week as a strong convectively-coupled kelvin wave moves across the region. The wave the GFS is showing this run is the same one it was developing a few days ago.


The ensembles were also saying a strong wave would come of July 27th.
Kills the systems at 360 hours, but that's too far out to trust.
But going by the GFS, we should start to see a pattern change in about a week or so.
190. SLU
Quoting 184. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, still holding on at 300 hours (1009 mb). That's a lot better than it did on the 12z run. And another low has come off the coast. humm


Dorian 2013 part 2. Earl fades away after crossing the CATL. Early days of course...
This run it makes it to 55-60W, compared to 40W last run.
Quoting 186. Hurricanes101:



actually the 12Z starts to kill it around 336 hours, the 18Z weakens it too around 348. It is further south in this run.


That's what I said.
The system does better in the 18z.
Could be a pattern (system lasting longer and getting stronger). We'll need to watch and see.
The GFS sends the storm as a weakening depression towards the Antillies that eventually opens up into a wave.The dry air is what causes the weakening and eventually kills it.
Seeing as the conditions have been better past 60 west this year not sure I take that GFS run serious.
Quoting 175. SLU:

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach · 4h4 hours ago  Moraga, CA

Vertical wind shear has averaged above-normal in Caribbean and below-normal over tropical Atlantic over past 30 days




Not sure WKC will like it.
Quoting 194. washingtonian115:

Seeing as the conditions have been better past 60 west this year not sure I take that GFS run serious.
Yea, with the conditions this year, it would promote getting stronger north of the Lesser Antilles, but the dry air get's to it, it was entering an area of warm waters and relatively low shear.
197. SLU

The Eastern Pacific train. Also note the midlevel easterly wave moving across northern Mexico, bound to fire up the desert monsoon.
Quoting 185. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The East Atlantic will definitely need to be watched next week as a strong convectively-coupled kelvin wave moves across the region. The wave the GFS is showing this run is the same one it was developing a few days ago.




the E PAC is about too run out of gas
ECMWF EPS have a massive convection suppressing Kelvin wave to progress through the EPAC and then the Atlantic. Quite different than the GFS and its ensembles. At least the EPAC will finally die down...


Quoting 190. SLU:



Dorian 2013 part 2. Earl fades away after crossing the CATL. Early days of course...


OMG please no :)
are the model runs hiting any thing in the gulf?
Quoting 197. SLU:



Wow. That dry air can't all be the SAL, can it? Is it possible that the warmer global atmosphere might be dumping more warm dry air out of the westerlies from adiabatic processes?
205. beell

07/18/16 @ 18Z
(click for larger image)
Quoting 193. washingtonian115:

The GFS sends the storm as a weakening depression towards the Antillies that eventually opens up into a wave.The dry air is what causes the weakening and eventually kills it.


Dry air, always dry air :/
The GFS storm is likely nonsense. There is zero support from the ECMWF for it.
I keep liking this year's analog to 1998. This scenario of the GFS producing a tropical storm that eventually fizzles in the MDR is very similar to the first storm of 1998 (late July) which struggled and eventually fizzled. We had to wait till August 18 for the next storm that year (Bonnie) but after that, the season took of wildly and produced a lot of activity. So we should consider that scenario possibly happening again
Quoting 192. Sfloridacat5:



That's what I said.
The system does better in the 18z.
Could be a pattern (system lasting longer and getting stronger). We'll need to watch and see.
Quoting 207. CybrTeddy:

The GFS storm is likely nonsense. There is zero support from the ECMWF for it.

Most likely a ghost storm, but the GFS does sometimes pick up storms before the ECMWF. I think the GFS identified Bonnie last May before the ECMWF, about 10 days before it formed.
Ironically the MDR on this run moistens when the storm leaves it xD
18z GFS ensembles be out soon.
Tiny little thing...but I can see winds of up to 60 mph ;)
Quoting 190. SLU:



Dorian 2013 part 2. Earl fades away after crossing the CATL. Early days of course...


As low as shear has been this year, any wave like that could easily regenerate in the Caribbean/Gulf or near the US east coast. It's all relative.
Question again is, it has passed Test 2, can it make it to Test 3 or bye-bye?
GFS now on board with the late July EPac slowdown. It does show another TS form in early August, but it shows the EPac slowing down as a whole.
Before anyone starts making baseless complaints about a quiet season, 2005 - one of my big landfall analogs - was heavily shear-ridden and dry east of the Lesser Antilles. Conditions were more favorable near the United States coast and in the Caribbean. That's what I think will happen this year, and I'm not alone in thinking that. Conditions can't literally be favorable in every single spot in the Atlantic all the time. It's physically impossible, otherwise we'd have a lot more storms every year than we do.
Quoting 209. HurricaneFan:


Most likely a ghost storm, but the GFS does sometimes pick up storms before the ECMWF. I think the GFS identified Bonnie last May before the ECMWF, about 10 days before it formed.

Not even that, sometimes the ECMWF doesn't show a storm whatsoever. It's certainly not the best genesis model in the Atlantic from what I've seen over the past 6 years.
Quoting 217. HurricaneFan:

GFS now on board with the late July EPac slowdown. It does show another TS form in early August, but it shows the EPac slowing down as a whole.



Yet another indication that Earl isn't far off.
Quoting 219. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Not even before the ECMWF, sometimes the ECMWF doesn't show a storm whatsoever. It's certainly not the best genesis model in the Atlantic from what I've seen over the past 6 years.


It historically has the lowest false alarm rate of all the models. Jeff wrote a post on that once, I believe. Like in the last year or two, actually.

It does sometimes miss the mark, but if there's gonna be a significant hurricane somewhere, it'll usually pick it up.
Quoting 219. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Not even that, sometimes the ECMWF doesn't show a storm whatsoever. It's certainly not the best genesis model in the Atlantic from what I've seen over the past 6 years.

ECMWF did originally expect a weak TS to form off the coast of NC for a while earlier this month, and that never happened.... It can't be viewed as "always correct" because that isn't the case... ECMWF predicted the genesis of Alex and Colin first, but I believe GFS predicted Bonnie and Danielle first.
Quoting 221. KoritheMan:



It historically has the lowest false alarm rate of all the models. Jeff wrote a post on that once, I believe. Like in the last year or two, actually.

It does sometimes miss the mark, but if there's gonna be a significant hurricane somewhere, it'll usually pick it up.

The fact that it doesn't develop the ghost storms the GFS and CMC sometimes have is not equal to it forecasting in advance storms that actually develop. Yes, it often nails the stronger cyclones, but the weak ones--the Chantals, the Dorians, the Erins, etc--it has a tendency to miss.
Next week we'll be leaving to our V.H down in Florida.While we are down there we will of course look to see if there is anything that needs repair and make sure that the hurricane supplies is updated.We will be leaving a sauna for another one as the heat will be up and down the east coast with our area in the upper 90's to 100's.
Quoting 222. HurricaneFan:


ECMWF did originally expect a weak TS to form off the coast of NC for a while earlier this month, and that never happened.... It can't be viewed as "always correct" because that isn't the case... ECMWF predicted the genesis of Alex and Colin first, but I believe GFS predicted Bonnie and Danielle first.


GFS forecasted Colin more than 2 weeks out
Quoting 223. TropicalAnalystwx13:


The fact that it doesn't develop the ghost storms the GFS and CMC sometimes have is not equal to it forecasting in advance storms that actually develop. Yes, it often nails the stronger cyclones, but the weak ones--the Chantals, the Dorians, the Erins, etc--it has a tendency to miss.


That's exactly my point. Nobody except number addicts care about tropical storms. ;)

The fact that it hasn't shown many significant hurricanes in the Atlantic since 2012 really attests to how unfavorable conditions have been.
Quoting 218. KoritheMan:

Before anyone starts making baseless complaints about a quiet season, 2005 - one of my big landfall analogs - was heavily shear-ridden and dry east of the Lesser Antilles. Conditions were more favorable near the United States coast and in the Caribbean. That's what I think will happen this year, and I'm not alone in thinking that. Conditions can't literally be favorable in every single spot in the Atlantic all the time. It's physically impossible, otherwise we'd have a lot more storms every year than we do.


This...
Quoting 226. KoritheMan:



That's exactly my point. Nobody except number addicts care about tropical storms. ;)

The fact that it hasn't shown many significant hurricanes in the Atlantic since 2012 really attests to how unfavorable conditions have been.

We're all on a blog dedicated to tracking tropical cyclones. We care. :P
You must have patience for this season. Conditions will come together soon enough. I myself am enjoying this downtime before the season comes alive.
231. SLU
Quoting 208. lobdelse81:

I keep liking this year's analog to 1998. This scenario of the GFS producing a tropical storm that eventually fizzles in the MDR is very similar to the first storm of 1998 (late July) which struggled and eventually fizzled. We had to wait till August 18 for the next storm that year (Bonnie) but after that, the season took of wildly and produced a lot of activity. So we should consider that scenario possibly happening again



Good point



Quoting 228. hurricane23:



This...


Hi Adrian. I think people here get too hung up on ACE; that hasn't changed since I've been here... and that's been almost 10 years ago now. Some of our Caribbean mates are also understandably frustrated at the lack of rain, but you can't keep using that to generalize the entire Caribbean basin as unfavorable... much less the season as a whole. Other areas exist besides your neighborhood.

I mean, yeah. This probably won't be a prolific ACE year (especially relative to the east Pacific), but it really doesn't need to be. ACE is neat for academic purposes and perhaps as a measure of total seasonal activity (definitely moreso than raw numbers), but people are going to remember a Category 4 that lasts for two days and hits a populated landmass before they will a Category 5 that spanned the Atlantic for 2 weeks, generating an ACE of 80.
233. SLU
Quoting 210. washingtonian115:

Ironically the MDR on this run moistens when the storm leaves it xD



It might end up being our annual sacrificial lamb invest/storm.
Quoting 229. TropicalAnalystwx13:


We're all on a blog dedicated to tracking tropical cyclones. We care. :P


I have no interest in tacking on tropical storms like we did in 2011 and 2013. I'm not with you this time, mate. :D
235. SLU
Quoting 213. KoritheMan:



As low as shear has been this year, any wave like that could easily regenerate in the Caribbean/Gulf or near the US east coast. It's all relative.


For sure. But if an organised storm from the MDR gets there one day, run for your life. It could become a monster beyond any Gulf storm we've seen since the heydays.

236. SLU
Quoting 219. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Not even that, sometimes the ECMWF doesn't show a storm whatsoever. It's certainly not the best genesis model in the Atlantic from what I've seen over the past 6 years.


Possibly even one of the worst. But when it does latch on to a system it stands head and shoulders over the GFS as we all know.
Quoting 233. SLU:



It might end up being our annual sacrificial lamb invest/storm.
I wanted the name Earl to go to a worthy candidate.It's last reincarnation is what made "pump/hump the ridge" popular here on the blog.lol a lot of people got perma banned in behind that.
238. SLU
Quoting 237. washingtonian115:

I wanted the name Earl to go to a worthy candidate.It's last reincarnation is what made "pump/hump the ridge" popular here on the blog.lol a lot of people got perma banned in behind that.


lol. Earl 2010 was a great storm that ballooned at 60W after battling dry air for days. A good analog for the type of storms we could get this year.
239. SLU
Ignore me. I need to read comments completely before offering in my two cents. :P
Quoting 235. SLU:



For sure. But if an organised storm from the MDR gets there one day, run for your life. It could become a monster beyond any Gulf storm we've seen since the heydays.


Ike maintained itself the whole way across the Atlantic.
Agreed, imagine if Joaquin made landfall in the Carolinas. 2015 was not an impressive ACE year, but it would have been remembered as one of the worst seasons in memory for many.

Quoting 232. KoritheMan:



Hi Adrian. I think people here get too hung up on ACE; that hasn't changed since I've been here... and that's been almost 10 years ago now. Some of our Caribbean mates are also understandably frustrated at the lack of rain, but you can't keep using that to generalize the entire Caribbean basin as unfavorable... much less the season as a whole. Other areas exist besides your neighborhood.

I mean, yeah. This probably won't be a prolific ACE year (especially relative to the east Pacific), but it really doesn't need to be. ACE is neat for academic purposes and perhaps as a measure of total seasonal activity (definitely moreso than raw numbers), but people are going to remember a Category 4 that lasts for two days and hits a populated landmass before they will a Category 5 that spanned the Atlantic for 2 weeks, generating an ACE of 80.
Great surf maker. FL scored. SC and NC underperformed. OBX northward lit up.

Quoting 239. SLU:


JeffMasters has created a new entry.
245. IDTH
Quoting 242. HaoleboySurfEC:

Agreed, imagine if Joaquin made landfall in the Carolinas. 2015 was not an impressive ACE year, but it would have been remembered as one of the worst seasons in memory for many.



A lot of people on WU lived in that area too. I'm forever grateful that storm's track led it away from land.
246. SLU
Quoting 241. Climate175:

Ike maintained itself the whole way across the Atlantic.


That pic of is Katrina. The mother of all monsters
Thankful that this Earl never made landfall. It could have easily made landfall in the Carolinas and been as memorable as Hugo or Hazel. Or if the turn out to sea had not been so sharp, it would have hit New England and been as bad as Carol or Bob. Imagine how lucky the U.S. Was with that one
Quoting 243. HaoleboySurfEC:

Great surf maker. FL scored. SC and NC underperformed. OBX northward lit up.


Quoting 218. KoritheMan:

Before anyone starts making baseless complaints about a quiet season, 2005 - one of my big landfall analogs - was heavily shear-ridden and dry east of the Lesser Antilles. Conditions were more favorable near the United States coast and in the Caribbean. That's what I think will happen this year, and I'm not alone in thinking that. Conditions can't literally be favorable in every single spot in the Atlantic all the time. It's physically impossible, otherwise we'd have a lot more storms every year than we do.


No offense, but I really hope not.

You guys know me well, I (and some of the Lesser Antilles blogers may join me) may not survive if Kori is right.

He, and those who thinks like him CAN'T be right!! :)
Quoting 234. KoritheMan:



I have no interest in tacking on tropical storms like we did in 2011 and 2013. I'm not with you this time, mate. :D


Yes, tracking sheared TS is not so exciting.... especially when they are forecast to weaken and degenerate into a dry wave east of me... (Danny)
It certainly seems that way. There are currently 2 disturbances with a chance of development in the eastern pacific, with the remains of Celia also saying there is a low chance for Celia to regenerate as of 0900 UTC. Models are also trying to develop a tropical depression over Cape Verde within the next few weeks. Could the tropical cyclone drought end soon?
Greetings all,

Looking to find some good self-education primers and reading material for tropical weather meteorology and trop wx in general. Moved to the Houston area four years ago from the Pacific NW, with formal education in meteorology from the U of Washington - 20 years ago. I don't work in the field at all, but do follow and maintain interest as a hobby. Trop wx not a big thing in the undergrad education at the UW, so would like to dig a bit deeper and be able to maneuver around the data and interpretation/discussion a bit easier. If easier, feel free to PM me with the information. Thanks for your input and suggestions.
254. vis0
did someone say watch how Nu Yaukers react to feels like 108F?
yeeelp yeeelp yeeelp yeeelp yeeelp

i would credit keepofgates in saying to watch out for feels like 108F in the NYc area but keepofgates said it would be in August ...whats da matter can't keep up with the faster&faster...oh wait that's keeps too ...must have a better kreezstal ball than i...


255. vis0

Quoting 148. Grothar:

Ewwww!!!



(see org cmmnt for other 2 imgs)


one day a kid will ask their robo-sitter "is it true that the Gulf of Mexico use to have water under 100F and fish would swim not float on it"
256. vis0

Quoting 201. BaltimoreBrian:

What in the world is 'corn sweat' and is it really causing this heat wave? By Angela Fritz
aMAZing (maybe the next Q would be:: ¿Can we use cornstarch to alleviate corn sweat?

Maybe Angela might one day be the person one day to find out how the pollutants create not just one rise as in "temperatures" via the warmth based heat but the rise in the planets Hz (norm being ~8 (7.8)) as the pollutants create this Hz rise the Hz in turn creates a sort of friction rise in the brain / thought process of all living things, That thought processing of the most complex being is affected FIRST then the lesser, less and least complex.

 

This assures that those in charge of taking care of the planet (ie most complex brain, ie Humans - for now) will receive the first line of (payback) chaotic friction onto their brain. If the complex animal does good the payback is to create useful mutations as with the thumb.

How does nature/gawd dole out this payback?

In being more complex the more complex brain has more chaotic energy created as in thinking for itself (its own conscience) creates added thoughts, more friction.  Add to that the higher Hz and Kapoowee the complex animal will begin to wear their emotions on their sleeves hence you see a more intelligent man(kind) acting in quick impulses as in "wearing of emotions on ones sleeves". You see officers shooting without thinking and individuals retaliating without thinking, road rage etc ....ETC!!!!!.

Think of these brain activities as if one is drunk so their inner stored rarely used thoughts are blurted out when under "normal" Hz conditions one uses their conscience and respects people even if they don't like them be it a real reason or a made up ignorant reason.

 

Do readers now understand how nature will eventually win, this BTW includes my theory on how fungi will enter the brain thus slowly kill off many humans. A dark place that has a wider warm - cooler range than its surroundings has a better opportunity to grow fungus. The brain with higher Hz surrounding it will create such a place by inturn trying to stay cooler.  Like a bathroom that has lots of hot humindity in the day (hot showers) and cooling temps at night (dark, bathroom light is off)

Remember how a WxU member correctly stated that since we cannot see CO2 nor does it damage the shine of ones car no one really cares, well if science proves that pollutants add to that Hz and in turn humans go bonkers thus cannot enjoy life's fruits since they are being hurled at each other then MAYBE people will begin to care as its more fun to enjoy life than to be constantly looking behind your back to see if someone is about to punch you or get upset at you cause your shadow is blocking their shadow.

 

Hz is one of the 5 processes i figured out as a kid that connects the physical universe to the "Galacsical" universe ie physical to spirit, soul being Quantum.

 

Anyone remember my clues on how to read quakes BEFORE they occur by days if not weeks, its the gases under ground reacting to the lightning activities  via the resonance transferred onto Hz, outward its 7 coloured angles lightnings, sprites (not the soda the lighting) being one of the 7 specifically angled lightnings and then inward...well that's were i stopped teaching "Galacsics", but there are also 7 think lightning as a resonances/vibrations "charge" not lighting as in a light....the Stars also use this deep inside them but i think its not yet known by modern science.

 

How is this weather related?

 

A healthy Planet has a greater chance of supporting the healthiest better balanced minds, clean the atmosphere and you create a better mind.

LOOK WHAT BRIAN MADE ME DO, blame Brian...
It's never too late to learn but can become too late to act...act now!