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Earth's 5th Costliest Non-U.S. Weather Disaster on Record: China's $22 Billion Flood

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 4:14 PM GMT on July 15, 2016

A historic flood event continues in China, where torrential monsoon rains along the Yangtze River Valley in central and eastern China since early summer have killed 237 people, left 93 people missing, and caused at least $22 billion in damage, the Office of State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters said on Thursday. According to the International Disaster database, EM-DAT, this would make the 2016 floods China's second most expensive weather-related natural disaster in history, and Earth's fifth most expensive non-U.S. weather-related disaster ever recorded. Only China's 1998 floods, with a price tag of $44 billion (2016 dollars), were more damaging than the 2016 floods. According to the June 2016 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield, Earth's only deadlier weather disaster in 2016 was an April heat wave in India that claimed 300 lives. Some 147,200 houses have been destroyed by this summer's floods in China, and over 21,000 square miles of farmland had been inundated--an area the size of Massachusetts and Vermont combined. An additional $1.3 billion in flood damage from Typhoon Nepartak occurred in China in July.


Figure 1. A stadium in Wuhan, China on July 6, 2016, after the city received 7.09” (180 mm) of rain in the twelve hours ending at 8 am July 6. Wuhan received over 560 mm (1.8 feet) of rain over the ten day period before the July 6 deluge, causing widespread damage and chaos. (Photo by Wang He/Getty Images)


Figure 2. Flood waters inundate a village in Xuancheng, in east China's Anhui province, on July 7, 2016. Image credit: STR/AFP/Getty Images.

Monsoon season in China
It's been a severe monsoon season in China this year. As we noted in a June 23 post, the heavy rains in China have occurred along the Mei-yu (or baiu) front, a semi-permanent feature that extends from eastern China across Taiwan into the Pacific south of Japan, associated with the southwest monsoon that pushes northward each spring and summer. The Mei-yu rains typically affect Taiwan and southeastern China from mid-May to mid-June, then migrate northwards to the Yangtze River region and southern Japan during June and July (the Mei-yu is known as Baiu in Japan), and then further northward to northern China and Korea (known as Changma in Korea) during July and August. A number of studies have found that the Mei-yu rainfall tends to be particularly heavy in the summer following an El Niño event, as is occurring in 2016--and occurred in 1998, the only year to experience more damaging flooding in China.


Figure 3. This summer's floods in China are the fifth most expensive weather-related natural disaster on record outside of the U.S., according to the International Disaster database, EM-DAT.


Figure 4. The U.S. has seen twelve weather-related disasters costing at least $20 billion, with eleven of them more expensive than the 2016 Chinese floods. Data source: NOAA/NCEI.

Heavier Mei-yu rains are expected in a warming climate
As the planet’s oceans and atmosphere warm up due to increased amounts of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide, more water vapor is entering the lower atmosphere, which provides more fuel for heavy rain. Observations show that the heaviest periods of precipitation have become more intense in many parts of the globe, and climate models agree that this trend should continue as our planet continues to warm. The Yangtze Valley of China is among the locations where a significant increase in summer precipitation was found to occur during the 20th century, as described in a 2007 paper in the International Journal of Climatology. A multiyear series of studies using high-resolution global circulation models (20 km), led by Shoji Kusunoki (Japan’s Meteorological Research Institute, or MRI) and colleagues, found that both average and extreme precipitation in the Mei-yu zone will increase during the 21st century (see this 2011 paper in Climate Dynamics). Subsequent modeling has only strengthened this finding. In the 2015 book “The Monsoons and Climate Change: Observations and Modeling,” Hirokazu Endo (MRI) and Akio Kitoh (University of Tsukuba, Japan) conclude: “State-of-the-art climate models project that both the amount and intensity of Asian summer monsoon rainfall are likely to increase under global warming, and that the rates of increase will be higher than those in other monsoon regions…Considering the improvements in CMIP5 (climate models) compared to CMIP3 in simulating present-day characteristics, we now have more confidence in future projections.”


Figure 5. Rainfall for the 30-day period ending on July 14, 2016 over China. Rainfall amounts in excess of 15.75" (400+ mm, dark blue color) fell over a large swath of the Yangtze River basin in China from Wuhan to just west of Shanghai. Image credit: National Meteorological Center of CMA.


Figure 6. Predicted total precipitation over China for the 16-day period ending at 00 UTC July 31, 2016, from the 00 UTC Friday, July 15, 2016 run of the GFS model. A wide swath of 12+" (305 mm) monsoon rains (light orange colors) is predicted to fall over portions of the Yangtze River basin. Image credit: tropicaltidbits.com.

More damaging flooding to come this summer in China
The flooding damage in China is likely to grow this month, as new rounds of torrential monsoon rains hit the nation in the coming weeks. "Although the water levels in middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River are slowly dropping, most are still above warning levels," Zhang Jiatuan, a spokesperson for the Office of State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters, told reporters on Thursday. He said the situation was "still quite critical" as central and eastern parts of China are expected to see a fresh round of heavy rain over the days to come. The latest precipitation forecast from the GFS model predicts a wide swath of 12+" of rain will fall over much of the flood-affected area through the end of July (Figure 6.)

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Deux'
My prayers go out to the families of the police officers that were gunned down protecting you. Your comments are cold and heartless.


Omg yes
Too Much Spam.
Are you that bobby guy that came on yesterday proclaiming the same thing?
hey mods could you please uesd that banned hammer on that troll so that way we can have some peace and quite
Quoting 490. BayFog:


That might make sense if we knew what a "CCKW" was.

convectively-coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW)
Quoting 458. Climate175:

MJO just don't know what to do for early-mid August, keeps switching back from favorable to not favorable run to run.
I have been saying that SAL will crush the 2016 season since this past may,,, yet everyone thinks was and that im still crazy for repeating this since may ..... but look what has been happening and the forcast calls for higher sal to dig in come AUGUST 5TH. AND COULD LAST THROUGH OCTOBER....
Quoting 500. Patrap:

Indeed..as 2012 with Isaac and Sandy alone...although not considered majors by the out moded SSS..left tens of thousands flooded out and lives taken.

I tallied 10 eyewall hours out of my 36 total now from Isaac alone.



will you could you bow down with me on a sunday ? would you do it with a fox how about a mouse ?
Quoting 511. CaribBoy:



Omg yes
I wouldn't get to excited...the ensembles have showed interest in something and it never came to pass.It was showing interest for something to form in the eastern caribbean from the wave that came off of the coast on Friday and the operational and the ensembles no longer develop it.
taz now is not the time please
Quoting 518. washingtonian115:

Are you that bobby guy that came on yesterday proclaiming the same thing?
He has multiple accounts.
530. Tcwx2
Will you please repeat that one more time? No just kidding, listen we get your point, you don't have to say it literally over and over again. Some of us just think different.
POOF!!!!
Quoting 528. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

taz now is not the time please



ok lol
Quoting 511. CaribBoy:



Omg yes
Quoting 533. Gearsts:


Well that is one way to break CaribBoy's heart lol.
how many hours is that gfs? tiny print sorry
KEEPER IS REALLY QUEER AND I THINK EVERYONE KNEW HE WAS. HE WAS ONE OF THE FEW WHO MADE IT OUT OF THE PULSE CLUB IN ORLANDO... GLAD YOUR OK THOUGH.. THAAT WAS VERY SAD WHAT HAPPEN AND MY HEART GO OUT TO ALL WHO PERISHED... AND I still rest my case about SAL killing the entire 2016 season........ sal sal sal like ive been saying for months now... swallow your prides and face the facts.. IM CORRECT, SAL WILL KILL THE Season
Quoting 531. PedleyCA:

POOF!!!!
KEEPER IS REALLY QUEER AND I THINK EVERYONE KNEW HE WAS. HE WAS ONE OF THE FEW WHO MADE IT OUT OF THE PULSE CLUB IN ORLANDO... GLAD YOUR OK THOUGH.. THAAT WAS VERY SAD WHAT HAPPEN AND MY HEART GO OUT TO ALL WHO PERISHED... AND I still rest my case about SAL killing the entire 2016 season........ sal sal sal like ive been saying for months now... swallow your prides and face the facts.. IM CORRECT, SAL WILL KILL THE Season
I think you are about to go bye bye forever.
Quoting 531. PedleyCA:

POOF!!!!
KEEPER IS REALLY QUEER AND I THINK EVERYONE KNEW HE WAS. HE WAS ONE OF THE FEW WHO MADE IT OUT OF THE PULSE CLUB IN ORLANDO... GLAD YOUR OK THOUGH.. THAAT WAS VERY SAD WHAT HAPPEN AND MY HEART GO OUT TO ALL WHO PERISHED... AND I still rest my case about SAL killing the entire 2016 season........ sal sal sal like ive been saying for months now... swallow your prides and face the facts.. IM CORRECT, SAL WILL KILL THE Season
interlude


Wrote a blog~ Launch Tonight/ Private Insurers Foot Cloud Seeding/ 03W Finally..

Should be watching the launch from the LCC (Launch Control Center) Parking Lot. I'll try and bring back some decent pics.
Quoting 489. riverat544:


That's a complicated story on the Colorado River. The biggest chunk of the water goes to California for crop irrigation and LA water. Another chunk goes to Arizona. Las Vegas takes some but not that much. The reason Lake Mead is so low is persistent drought conditions in the Colorado basin since around the year 2000 and over promised water delivery based on the wetter conditions that prevailed through the mid-20th Century. The lake and Lake Powell upstream are getting low enough that junior water rights in Arizona may start losing out.

And too much development, not just in Las Vegas, done without sufficient concommitant development of water supplies.
area around 52w 1`1n is a bit interesting. lack of convection mdr trend so far.
Quoting 486. HurricaneFan:

Just for comparison.



One outstanding difference you can see is that large and persistent cold pool south of Greenland this season which must be part of the explanation for the placement and strength of the extensive high pressure area over the Atlantic that is contributing to the volume of dry and dusty air coming off of North Africa. Another difference that jumps out is the extent of the EPac that remains very warm despite the waning of El Nino, and is helping contribute to the current train of tropical systems there.
Quoting 535. islander101010:

how many hours is that gfs? tiny print sorry


Just hold down the "ctrl" key on your keyboard and press the "+" key to enlarge the screen.
the eye on ESTELLE is starting too clear out and too add too my post we have are next E PAC hurricane of the season

EP, 06, 2016071718, , BEST, 0, 164N, 1121W, 65, 988, HU

Are the models and ensembles really putting out information that are very correct or it is really probabilities. many here refer to them as instruments of producing ghost or phantom storms. ave the models have been inconsistent or they are not that accurate in predicting cyclogenesis, this early part of the season.?
fear it will consume everything

keep it from this place of sanctuary deep

Fairly stout midlevel easterly wave moving in from the Gulf of Mexico over south Texas and northern Mexico should amp up the desert monsoon as it moves west. Noticeable this year is the fairly strong easterly upper air flow at tropical latitudes which extends over the East Pacific nearly to Hawaii, opposite to the direction typical of El Nino.
A very pleasant day at Palmdale California.

Conditions: Sunny

Temp: 93 degrees F

Humidity 4%

Dewpoint -4 degrees F

with a fresh SW breeze at 18 MPH!
Quoting 553. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

fear it will consume everything

keep it from this place of sanctuary deep


If we are squelching that message here, of humanity being lost so fast, then that is sad and removing that message pathetic. Always been allowed before and I speak on it not at length. When people, or sites such as this, remain neutral; then it always benefits the abusers, never the abused. Should not have been removed. Sad.
Quoting 550. GeoffreyWPB:



Just hold down the "ctrl" key on your keyboard and press the "+" key to enlarge the screen.


Or click on tools, zoom + to whatever size
But he might be on his phone.

I believe the answer to the question he was asking is 384 hours (or 200 hours past the accuracy of the model).
I've seen mention somewhere that the "blob" of anomalous warm water that was so evident last year over the North Pacific has been found to still be present, albeit submerged this year. But thus far this season, no sign of it upwelling along the California coast where SSTs are near or even below normal. For instance, the current temp measured at the Bodega buoy is 50.9 F, at SF 53.2 F, at Half Moon Bay 55.4, and at Monterey 56.8. Plenty of coastal fog this AM in the SF Bay Area and chilly, which must seem very odd in comparison to the stifling heat and humidity east of the Rockies.

The effects of this cold upwelled water extend as far south as northern Baja, although the seasonal northward progression of tropical SSTs has finally reached the halfway point on its excursion toward Point Eugenia.
559. SLU
Quoting 484. HurricaneFan:


Oh god, let's hope we don't have a 2013 repeat. The blog will all melt down...


Another 2013 could result in a mass suicide event.

Quoting 555. weatherbro:

A very pleasant day at Palmdale California.

Conditions: Sunny

Temp: 93 degrees F

Humidity 4%

Dewpoint -4 degrees F

with a fresh SW breeze at 18 MPH!


4% humidity. Wow, my lips are chapped and my throat hurts just thinking about it. It takes a while for your body to get used to air that dry if you're not used to it.
Quoting 558. BayFog:

I've seen mention somewhere that the "blob" of anomalous warm water that was so evident last year over the North Pacific has been found to still be present, albeit submerged this year. But thus far this season, no sign of it upwelling along the California coast where SSTs are near or even below normal. For instance, the current temp measured at the Bodega buoy is 50.9 F, at SF 53.2 F, at Half Moon Bay 55.4, and at Monterey 56.8. Plenty of coastal fog this AM in the SF Bay Area and chilly, which must seem very odd in comparison to the stifling heat and humidity east of the Rockies.

The effects of this cold upwelled water extend as far south as northern Baja, although the seasonal northward progression of tropical SSTs has finally reached the halfway point on its excursion toward Point Eugenia.



Speaking of Half Moon Bay, the Titans of Mavericks surf contest is on FS1 right now (recorded). If only the water was 80 degrees there (bad for a lot of local marine organisms, but I hate cold water).
Quoting 556. DeepSeaRising:


I understand
I myself have so much too say
but this is a weather climate site not a political debating site
and the rules state
"please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather"

such topics should be kept in one's own blog
or go too sites that offer those types of blogs
sh012017 ABELA 20160717 1800 -12.6 63.0 S TS 45 989
Quoting 559. SLU:



Another 2013 could result in a mass suicide event.


naw they be ok little disappointed maybe but ok

One can readily see a big difference in the SSTs off of West Africa versus the Mexican Pacific coast which accounts in no small part to the difference in tropical storm generation presently. What's a bit surprising is why there has not been more tropical generation in the Caribbean and Gulf thus far.
Quoting 560. Sfloridacat5:



4% humidity. Wow, my lips are chapped and my throat hurts just thinking about it. It takes a while for your body to get used to air that dry if you're not used to it.

Imagine that's the kind of air mass that's blowing off the Sahara and suppressing storm development right now.
Quoting 565. BayFog:


One can readily see a big difference in the SSTs off of West Africa versus the Mexican Pacific coast which accounts in no small part to the difference in tropical storm generation presently. What's a bit surprising is why there has not been more tropical generation in the Caribbean and Gulf thus far.


The water is always colder off the coast of Northern Africa than southern Mexico. It's mid July and it is very common for there to be no activity at this time of the year.

Also, the Eastern Pacific is (on average) more active in June and July than the Atlantic Basin.
Quoting 561. Sfloridacat5:



Speaking of Half Moon Bay, the Titans of Mavericks surf contest is on FS1 right now (recorded). If only the water was 80 degrees there (bad for a lot of local marine organisms, but I hate cold water).

There are such nice sandy beaches along our coast, but the water temps are a spoiler. Unless you've just popped over from inland areas where it's in the 100s, and then it seems wonderful---for about 5 minutes. Needless to say, the surfers hereabouts are in wetsuits only.
Quoting 567. Sfloridacat5:



The water is always colder off the coast of Northern Africa than southern Mexico. It's mid July and it is very common for there to be no activity at this time of the year.

Also, the Eastern Pacific is (on average) more active in June and July than the Atlantic Basin.

Agreed in general. Nobody should expect much action from that direction until September. But there is a more pronounced cooling this year than usual off Africa. It will be interesting to see how this evolves over the next several weeks.
Average dates of storm formation (Atlantic Basin vs. East Pacific)
Huge difference (basically two storms vs. seven storms) by the first week in August.

Atlantic Basin average dates
1st storm - July 9
2nd storm - Aug. 1

Eastern Pacific average dates
1st storm - June 10
2nd storm - June 25
3rd storm- July 5
4th storm - July 14
5th storm - July 22
6th storm - July 30
7th storm - Aug 7

The people saying the season is dead or is going to be bad are not looking at climatology. It is perfectly normal for the Atlantic Basin to be dead right now.


compare 05

572. Tcwx2
I think the reason that people are saying this season will be dead is simply because we can't look out 384 hours at the GFS and it isn't spitting out its normal "ghost storms". But we can't complain because we have 4..yes 4 storms already folks!
Quoting 571. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



compare 05




If the Sahara were to suddenly become a wetland, I think we would manage to go through the entire Greek Alphabet this year with how warm those SSTs are compared to 05. Wow
Quoting 562. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


I understand
I myself have so much too say
but this is a weather climate site not a political debating site
and the rules state
"please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather"

such topics should be kept in one's own blog
or go too sites that offer those types of blogs



I disagree Keeps. I never would of never known (at the time) of this horrible event if not for Grothar's post this morning. If one wants to express condolences, there is nothing wrong with that. However, some do go over the line and those posts should be removed. WU is a family, and if we wish to express our thoughts in a respectable way, they should not be removed. The President has to make another address to the nation and flags will once again go half staff. It is yet another time for reflection.
from my home region

The Globe and Mail



IVAN SEMENIUK

5 hrs ago



Mistaken Point, a rocky stretch of Newfoundland coastline that bears the oldest traces of large scale animal life on Earth, has been named as Canada%u2019s latest world heritage site.

The decision was announced in Istanbul on Sunday where the United Nations committee world heritage designations has been holding its annual meeting. It came less than 48 hours after a failed coup attempt in Turkey forced the committee to suspend its deliberations and threatened to derail the process for at least a year.

Five and half time zones away at the Edge of Avalon interpretive centre in Portugal Cove South, Nfld., a small crowd that gathered early Sunday morning to watch the committee%u2019s proceeding via live webcast erupted in cheers.

%u201CEverybody was leaping up and down, but my reaction was one of total relief,%u201D said Richard Thomas, a provincial geologist with the Mistaken Point Ecological Reserve and co-author of a dossier that Canada put forward in making the case to the UN that the site deserved global recognition.

Soon after the World Heritage Committee issued its verdict, people were driving through the small coastal community, about 100 kilometres southwest of St. John with horns beeping and balloons flying, he said.

The decision, which took all of seven minutes, came during a brisk session one-day session organized after the committee%u2019s planned 10 days of meetings in Istanbul were cut short by an attempt to overthrow Turkey%u2019s government on Friday night.

Mistaken Point, a rich fossil site that reaches back 580 million years to the early history of multicellular life, was one of two Canadian up for consideration by the committee.

A decision on the second, a vast tract of Manitoba wilderness called Pimachiowin Aki, was referred to a later date at Canada%u2019s request in order to resolve issues that caused one of the First Nations groups behind the bid to withdraw support last month.
Quoting 490. BayFog:


That might make sense if we knew what a "CCKW" was.


"We" actually do...
CCKWs= Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves, or also known as Supercloud clusters, are atmospheric disturbances with very similar dispersion characteristics to the modes that were initially described by Matsuno (1966) on a shallow water equatorial beta plane. Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves are often characterized by large-scale eastward propagating groups of convection, precipitation & associated upper & lower level zonal wind anomalies that tilt westward with height & are trapped @ the equator, (although they can also become trapped by topographic boundaries) w/ their amplitude maximizing near the mean latitude of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) & decreasing exponentially with increasing latitudinal distance from the ITCZ. The phase speeds of Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves (CCKWs), like most equatorial waves, are in large part dictated by convective heating (which distorts their wave structures) and CCKWs comprise a significant proportion of the cloudiness of the Madden Julian Oscillation's (MJO) envelope. Supported by basic physical principles wrt waves (particularly interference), the dynamical structures and amplitude of CCKWs have been found to increase significantly when they are collocated within the convectively active phase of the MJO. Mike Ventrice & others have found that tropical cyclogenesis tends to be favored during and immediately following the passage of a CCKW (ideally 2 days following a convectively ENH CCKW) via modulation of deep layer vertical wind shear (via upper level zonal wind anomalies associated with the convection tied to CCKWs & equatorward propagation of mid-latitude rossby waves which often become TUTTs when they get stuck in the tropics), moisture, and low-level relative vorticity.

Link

The basic argument I'm making here is via destructive interference, the superposition of the convectively suppressed phase of the CCKW with the convectively active phase of the MJO is dampening the latter & (along with assistance from the unfavorable climatic bgd & climatology) is leading to the observed dearth of convective activity in the Atlantic basin despite the fact that the zonal wind structure with strong easterlies ~20-25N (as SLU, Levi, & others have pointed out) is enhancing low-level relative vorticity on its equatorward side over the tropical Atlantic...





Quoting 574. GeoffreyWPB:



I disagree Keeps. I never would of known of this horrible event if not for Grothar's post this morning. If one wants to express condolences, there is nothing wrong with that. However, some do go over the line and those posts should be removed. WU is a family, and if we wish to express our thoughts in a respectable way, they should not be removed. The President has to make another address to the nation and flags will once again go half staff. It is yet another time for reflection.

nothing wrong with a short excerpt at all WPB
when it becomes controversial in any way its a problem
or during a troll outbreak it is necessary to keep it down

I never take action for a quick one time comment and move on approach only if it gets out of hand


We may have possibly the most southern-forming storm ever in the South Atlantic. Like, 43ºN.
Quoting 492. Neapolitan:

I can appreciate the sentiment. But prayers (and their equally ineffective twin "thoughts") have been offered up in the millions, yet there's been little to no discernible effect; gun deaths in this country continue unabated. Maybe should try something based less in superstition and more in facts and common sense?

Just watching dark clouds amass to the east, and waiting for the daily rains to kick off here in SW Florida. Tis that time of the year...


You've got to be kidding me... I seriously doubt the intent of the blogger's comment was to offer up any real solutions to these pressing issues, aside from the fact that taking cheap shots @ bloggers is actually going to somehow resolve these problems... Smh.
Quoting 573. PancakeState:



If the Sahara were to suddenly become a wetland, I think we would manage to go through the entire Greek Alphabet this year with how warm those SSTs are compared to 05. Wow



you are really wish casting
Quoting 578. NunoLava1998:

We may have possibly the most southern-forming storm ever in the South Atlantic. Like, 43N.


SSTs are far too cool to develop anything tropical down there. I don't understand what you mean:
Quoting 560. Sfloridacat5:



4% humidity. Wow, my lips are chapped and my throat hurts just thinking about it. It takes a while for your body to get used to air that dry if you're not used to it.


Freakin Glorious. Perfect for a water Cooler, the air coming out the other side is as nice as AC. At 100F in, the air coming out would be 71F....
Afternoon all .... starting to hear some thunder here ... guessing it's from pop-up showers ...

Didn't someone say we should be seeing that MJO pulse move into the area this week? I think it may be happening, because we haven't had typical afternoon showers for most of the month.

Quoting 581. HurricaneFan:


SSTs are far too cool to develop anything tropical down there. I don't understand what you mean:


it's probably subtropical
Wotchasmoking? Thats not sub tropical, in anyone's dreams, that is a normal mid latitude anticyclone, not even a big one. In fact a tiny one.

Quoting 578. NunoLava1998:

We may have possibly the most southern-forming storm ever in the South Atlantic. Like, 43ºN.

Quoting 563. nrtiwlnvragn:

sh012017 ABELA 20160717 1800 -12.6 63.0 S TS 45 989
Wow. Amazing.... now officially three TC basins this year have had a named storm in the middle of winter [ATL, CPac, and now SInd].
This lassie,
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/southern-i ndian/2016/Tropical-Cyclone-Abela?map=sat
Abela, has me flummoxed. What on earth is a tropical depression doing in this part of the world at this time of year?
And the wundergroundtopical main page has it at 85kph, which is pretty puffy. I sailed this passage at this time of year a while back - it would be disconcerting to sail into this little storm in the hemispheres mid winter.
Any record of mid winter tropical depressions occurring before in the S. Indian?
Quoting 586. BahaHurican:

Wow. Amazing.... now officially three TC basins this year have had a named storm in the middle of winter [ATL, CPac, and now SInd].
has to be some type of record for sure for winter activity interesting for sure
For those interested in convectively coupled Kelvin waves (CCKW], here are a couple of related posts from our blog:

A Gallery of Tropical Influences: MJO, CCKW, TIW, and La Niña [June 28, 2016]
Danny's Leg Up: A Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave (August 19, 2015)
Quoting 587. ekogaia:

This lassie,
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/southern-i ndian/2016/Tropical-Cyclone-Abela?map=sat
Abela, has me flummoxed. What on earth is a tropical depression doing in this part of the world at this time of year?
And the wundergroundtopical main page has it at 85kph, which is pretty puffy. I sailed this passage at this time of year a while back - it would be disconcerting to sail into this little storm in the hemispheres mid winter.
Any record of mid winter tropical depressions occurring before in the S. Indian?
Wow. We posted at the same time.
From what I've been able to ascertain so far, this is the first. Keep in mind reliable records for this basin don't go back even 50 years...
Quoting 589. BobHenson:

For those interested in convectively coupled Kelvin waves (CCKW], here are a couple of related posts from our blog:

A Gallery of Tropical Influences: MJO, CCKW, TIW, and La Niña [June 28, 2016]
Danny's Leg Up: A Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave (August 19, 2015)

I have that first one bookmarked. It's a useful primer and good review material ...
Quoting 578. NunoLava1998:

We may have possibly the most southern-forming storm ever in the South Atlantic. Like, 43ºN.



Storms that far south are common because of the jet stream streaking across there or farther south.
Quoting 584. NunoLava1998:


it's probably subtropical

No, subtropical cyclones cannot form over waters of 9 degrees Celcius...like others have said it is just a mid latitude cyclone.
I'm willing to bet Tropical Depression 03W was never a Tropical Cyclone in the first place.
Quoting 534. Climate175:

Well that is one way to break CaribBoy's heart lol.


I know that storm is (unfortunately) a ghost, but it's still nice too see something exciting when watching the models.
Just for Central/Northern Plains entertainment but lol

Quoting 559. SLU:



Another 2013 could result in a mass suicide event.




Fortunately the SSTs profile is not the same this year.

Dorian was so pathetic :/
Quoting 596. Tornado6042008X:

Just for Central/Northern Plains entertainment but lol

It may not be far off by the end of this week the heat will be on and for a period of 8 to 10 days or so give or take
Quoting 596. Tornado6042008X:

Just for Central/Northern Plains entertainment but lol




Wow. That's what I'd expect to see in the Desert Southwest.
double post
Thanks BahaH, thought it was an outlier but I guess this is what we can expect with a changing climate. Bizarre stuff.

Quoting 590. BahaHurican:

Wow. We posted at the same time.
From what I've been able to ascertain so far, this is the first. Keep in mind reliable records for this basin don't go back even 50 years...
596. Tornado6042008X
5:00 PM EDT on July 17, 2016
Just for Central/Northern Plains entertainment but lol


That are not LOL
Quoting 599. 62901IL:



Wow. That's what I'd expect to see in the Desert Southwest.


It's 97 degrees with only 10% humidity in Oklahoma City. If the humidity stays that low across the Southern and Central Plains the temperatures will continue to increase over time.
That's desert air when the humidity gets down to 10% or less.
Quoting 596. Tornado6042008X:

Just for Central/Northern Plains entertainment but lol



DOOM...
How do you post the current conditions for a particular weather station that shows up here in WU in the blog?

I have seen people do it before and have done it myself with the previous format of the site, but cannot figure out how to do it now
....
Quoting 605. Hurricanes101:

How do you post the current conditions for a particular weather station that shows up here in WU in the blog?

I have seen people do it before and have done it myself with the previous format of the site, but cannot figure out how to do it now

You have to post the image offsite and then link it back. I use Postimage....
Quoting 601. ekogaia:

Thanks BahaH, thought it was an outlier but I guess this is what we can expect with a changing climate. Bizarre stuff.


I'm starting to think that the "new normal" with TCs is going to tend towards an expansion of the cyclone season.... maybe by 2100 we'll routinely expect formation in any given month ... rather than huge increases in numbers.

88,8 at Indian Hills, 90.5 at my place.
Second round of storms just about to move through my area. Lots of thunder with the approaching cell.
612. vis0

Quoting 570. Sfloridacat5:

Average dates of storm formation (Atlantic Basin vs. East Pacific)
Huge difference (basically two storms vs. seven storms) by the first week in August.

Atlantic Basin average dates
1st storm - July 9
2nd storm - Aug. 1

Eastern Pacific average dates
1st storm - June 10
2nd storm - June 25
3rd storm- July 5
4th storm - July 14
5th storm - July 22
6th storm - July 30
7th storm - Aug 7

The people saying the season is dead or is going to be bad are not looking at climatology. It is perfectly normal for the Atlantic Basin to be dead right now.

We need a similar chart but for blobs.  As warmer atmosphere will not necessarily convert immediately towards having more TS but i think it will as to more Blobs or (2015 N. Carolina) fire-hose (or TS scorpion tail) like formations.
613. JRRP7

impressive
Pretty impressive just how suppressed things have been in the Atlantic.

I'd be surprised if we saw a red-meat cyclone in the basin before first half of August.

Link
Quoting 613. JRRP7:


impressive
That's from the July 27th wave.
I'm not surprised--July isn't usually very active.
Just shot this nice-looking arcus/roll cloud from a UAV flying at 400' AGL. It was moving south to north at about 30 mph, and stretched west-to-east maybe 10 miles or so. I'd estimate the base of the cloud at about 800'-900'. The view is to the southeast.



(Apologies for the darkness; I bumped up the contrast just a bit to highlight the eastern end of the cloud, but a massive cumulonimbus blocked a lot of the afternoon light.)
618. JRRP7
Quoting 614. Stormchaser2007:

Pretty impressive just how suppressed things have been in the Atlantic.

I'd be surprised if we saw a red-meat cyclone in the basin before first half of August.

Link


looks like 2007
Quoting 610. PedleyCA:


88,8 at Indian Hills, 90.5 at my place.


Better get the blankets and sand bags ready.

Hit 80F up here today... scorching.
LOL. Ok GFS.
Looks like my launch placard was moved to Karrs Park, which isn't really worth the trip for that time of night.. Modeling the 45th Weather Squadron did, between possible Dragon abort and the attempt to return the first stage along with safety concerns and the east wind..the few left viewing from KSC, from LCC got moved some miles back...due to concerns of possible toxic drift. Being that launch time is 12:45am, looks like I'll be watching it from Melbourne.
Quoting 620. Climate175:

LOL. Ok GFS.
It's timely, if nothing else .... lol
Did anyone see news in reference to 3.7 earthquake 100 miles off Daytona coast yesterday? Of course I just logged on from work.
Found the official account at spacefightnow (live coverage).. This had seemed unprecedented in my memory..


17:55 Weather still 90% go

Forecasters continue to predict a 90 percent chance of acceptable weather for tonight's instantaneous launch window at 12:45:29 a.m. EDT (0445:29 GMT).

The only concerns are with the cumulus cloud and flight through precipitation rules. Mostly clear skies are in the official launch forecast issued by the U.S. Air Force's 45th Weather Squadron.

Winds should be out of the southeast at 10 to 15 mph, and the temperature at launch time is predicted to be about 82 degrees Fahrenheit.

Air Force and NASA safety authorities plan to evacuate a large section of the Kennedy Space Center's Launch Complex 39 area, including both launch pads, the Vehicle Assembly Building and the press site, due to risk that onshore winds could blow the Dragon capsule back toward land in the event of an abort.

SpaceX added an abort function to cargo missions after a Falcon 9 launch failure last year destroyed a Dragon supply ship. In the event of a similar mishap now, the Dragon capsule could attempt to separate from the Falcon 9 and deploy its parachutes in order to save its cargo.

The winds forecast tonight could send the descending capsule over KSC property, prompting the evacuation. Officials are concerned the capsule's tanks of toxic in-space maneuvering propellant -- hydrazine and nitrogen tetroxide -- could rupture on impact, even under parachutes.

Safety officials routinely evacuate some facilities for launch operations, but this is the first time such a large section of KSC including the VAB and press site have been cleared for a launch.
Quoting 623. centrfla:

Did anyone see news in reference to 3.7 earthquake 100 miles off Daytona coast yesterday? Of course I just logged on from work.
From this morning:

Label this under "Things you don't see every day":

Tx for the info Neapolitan!
aquak9 checking in- gonna try to watch the launch from up here in Jacksonville, too- -
628. IDTH
Quoting 571. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



compare 05



I'd like to say that the reason those waters are so high in temp and the heat content is at record levels is because of the lull that took place in those regions. The Gulf has been dead since 2008 essentially (with exceptions like Issac) and has led to these exceptionally high temperature waters in July exceeding 30 degrees Celsius. The Bahamas is still about the same as 2015 where Joaquin took advantage and strengthened exponentially. The issue with waters like this is it will lead to explosive intensification (provided the right conditions like shear etc).

That's why people better be careful for what they wish for.
Greetings and Blessings Everyone!

It looks like that wave predicted by the GFS to be near the islands by this Thursday is actually taking shape in the Mid Atlantic region/MDR. It appears that Pre-Earl seems to be in the making...Should favourable conditions persist & or organization of the system continues to occur- a yellow circle may be in order shortly...

Quoting 629. NatureIsle:

Greetings and Blessings Everyone!

It looks like that wave predicted by the GFS to be near the islands by this Thursday is actually taking shape in the Mid Atlantic region/MDR. It appears that Pre-Earl seems to be in the making...Should favourable conditions persist & or organization of the system continues to occur- a yellow circle may be in order shortly...




nothing is going to happen for the next 2 or 3 weeks or so dry air dust and so on
I think we may see some swirl watching this week. Not really expecting anything to close off.. But got to watch a swirl or a flock a gulls...

Look, it's shaped like a horse head in this frame:)
just got back from reinstalling pws fresh batteries cleanout some other maintenance all is well station is reporting again here is a shot from the phone I took

Quoting 596. Tornado6042008X:

Just for Central/Northern Plains entertainment but lol



I'm sure those temperatures would come close or break all time state temperature records if that comes true
Just read how someone was struck by lightning near Mt Mitchell on Saturday. I was driving outside of Greensboro that evening, by far the worst thunderstorm through which I've ever driven. Wind driven heavy rain, windshield wipers going, music on loud (I know not safe, but those are the breaks [puns]), could still hear the thunder over all. C2G all around the I-40 corridor in Alamance Co.
Quoting 633. MrTornadochase:


I'm sure those temperatures would come close or break all time state temperature records if that comes true

If taken verbatim (big if), it might get close, but you might be surprised at how high some of the state records are.

Nebraska and Iowa: 118*F.
South Dakota: 120*F.
North Dakota: 121*F.

Of course, like the original poster stated, one model run at hour 276 is not something to take too seriously.
Quoting 633. MrTornadochase:


I'm sure those temperatures would come close or break all time state temperature records if that comes true


Yea, I don't think central SD has recorded a 117° day, but I haven't checked that.
Quoting 617. Neapolitan:

Just shot this nice-looking arcus/roll cloud from a UAV flying at 400' AGL. It was moving south to north at about 30 mph, and stretched west-to-east maybe 10 miles or so. I'd estimate the base of the cloud at about 800'-900'. The view is to the southeast.



(Apologies for the darkness; I bumped up the contrast just a bit to highlight the eastern end of the cloud, but a massive cumulonimbus blocked a lot of the afternoon light.)

You should do more UAV shots, weather permitting of course. It makes me want to spend money I probably don't have to do similar. :P
Quoting 636. win1gamegiantsplease:



Yea, I don't think central SD has recorded a 117 day, but I haven't checked that.

I just checked according to Wiki The highest temperature recorded in SD was 120 back in 2006 Edit: I didn't look through comments someone posted the records below
There was a lot of outrageous heat in the upper midwest in July 1936, with widespread 110s in Wisconsin and Minnesota. Even Duluth got to 106. It will be interesting to see if any places set new all time heat records.

From July 6-14 1936 Eau Claire Wisconsin had these highs: 103, 105, 103, 104, 107, 109, 110, 111, 111.
Quoting 622. BahaHurican:

It's timely, if nothing else .... lol


Need some rain here lol
Quoting 635. 1900hurricane:


If taken verbatim (big if), it might get close, but you might be surprised at how high some of the state records are.

Nebraska and Iowa: 118*F.
South Dakota: 120*F.
North Dakota: 121*F.

Of course, like the original poster stated, one model run at hour 276 is not something to take too seriously.


The Plains can get really hot without large bodies of water to modulate the temperature, just wasn't expecting nearing 120. For similar regions continental climates also get very cold.
Quoting 621. Skyepony:

Looks like my launch placard was moved to Karrs Park, which isn't really worth the trip for that time of night.. Modeling the 45th Weather Squadron did, between possible Dragon abort and the attempt to return the first stage along with safety concerns and the east wind..the few left viewing from KSC, from LCC got moved some miles back...due to concerns of possible toxic drift. Being that launch time is 12:45am, looks like I'll be watching it from Melbourne.


You should come to Titusville and watch it off the Max Brewer Bridge. It is an impressive view. I love living here.
Quoting 630. Tazmanian:



nothing is going to happen for the next 2 or 3 weeks or so dry air dust and so on


TIME will tell ultimately...I've seen to many systems in my history of weather tracking defy the odds and probabilities of forecasters with even a few tropical systems roaring to life after having been dropped entirely by most of the models. Just a couple Cases in point are Bret, Don, and even Emily of 2011.
Always remember that mother nature maintains a 'mind' of its own...
644. SLU
If a seedling with good atmospheric conditions finds itself over these warm waters then look out. We could see a really scary monster close in at some point this year.

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
Gale Warning
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ABELA (01-20162017)
4:00 AM RET July 18 2016
=================================
Northeast of St. Brandon

At 0:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Abela (1000 hPa) located at 13.2S 61.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 15 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=============
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 50 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 75 NM in the southern semi-circle.

Near Gale Force Winds
================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 75 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 150 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 250 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS: 14.3S 58.9E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 15.5S 56.4E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 17.9S 52.2E - 25 knots (Depression se Comblant)

Additional Information
====================
Since 1800z, convective tops remained relatively low but formed a well organized curved band wrapping .5 around the circulation center. SSMI 2221z microwave image shows this narrow convective structure well wrapped around Abela's center. Over the last 3 hours, this band began to fall apart. The upper level environment remains conducive with a new cirrus clouds arc suggesting a good outflow on the northern side.

Abela keeps on heading west southwestward. The available model guidance is in good agreement and forecast a track following this direction until tomorrow evening, steered by an area of high geopotentials in the southeast of the system. Then, uncertainty is increasing a bit as Abela should begin to turn southward. All the available numerical weather prediction models now forecast this turn, with still a few differences in timing.

Along this track, the upper level conditions remain conducive today with still a good upper divergence and become neutral Tuesday. However the lack of oceanic energy already limits the convection intensity, which prevents a significant deepening. From Tuesday, in a sensibly drier environment and an increasing northwesterly wind shear ahead of an upper trough, Abela should weaken significantly. Some precipitations bands in Abela's periphery could reach the great Mascareignes islands from tonight.


A wet summer has led to a bumper crop of cherry tomatoes.
Quoting 643. NatureIsle:



TIME will tell ultimately...I've seen to many systems in my history of weather tracking defy the odds and probabilities of forecasters with even a few tropical systems roaring to life after having been dropped entirely by most of the models. Just a couple Cases in point are Bret, Don, and even Emily of 2011.
Always remember that mother nature maintains a 'mind' of its own...


but that not all ways the case i do not see any thing abouting in tell i see the E PAC side shuting down with no more named storms in tell that happens we stay vary quite the mojo wish been locked in the E PAC needs too move out
Could this qualify as a "closed low"? We saw TD 2 in 2014 form in a very similar dry, dusty enviornment, at the same time of year in a similar location.
649. IDTH
Okay so I took note of 5 years leading up to this year and you will notice something involving heat content, 2010 the Caribbean was relatively active with storms like Richard and after 2010 the next 5 years had a combined 2 Caribbean storms, Rina and Sandy in 2011 and 2012. That was 3 years of complete undisturbed waters and it shows greatly in the heat content map.

2010


2011


2012


2013


2014


2015


2016
Here in central Texas we have had High temperatures near 100 degrees with a heat index of 100-115 at max.


That's too much convection for this late in the night.
MDR SSTs not all that bad. The MDR will likely warm a little bit more before the season peak arrives. It's the dry air, sinking motion and lack of instability that continues to kill the waves, which have actually looked fairly decent this year.

Tropical Atlantic instability is expected to also increase as we get closer towards August.
Quoting 642. RevInFL:



You should come to Titusville and watch it off the Max Brewer Bridge. It is an impressive view. I love living here.

Though it's farther than Karrs that is a great viewing spot. Get a pic for us tonight..


Anyone notice the Google emoji thing today? I know..I'm not a teenage girl any more, but gave it a go, trying to encourage the ones around me. Super sorry block coding...a computer was the closest thing to anything weather related & the stickers on that were terrible, so...changed them around a bit, added a PWS & some longer hair..
Quoting 644. SLU:

If a seedling with good atmospheric conditions finds itself over these warm waters then look out. We could see a really scary monster close in at some point this year.




Those SSTs in the Gulf can be thought of as just turning that variable to max. TCHP is also high (80-100 joules) all the way in close to shore on the northern Gulf and well over 120 off the east coast of Florida. Not so much TCHP off the west side because of depth but the surface itself is sizzling.

Gulf water conditions would be able to fuel a very, very strong storm if one makes it that far (or spins up). And I wouldn't expect near-shore waters to provide much protection this time.


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 JUL 2016 Time : 020000 UTC
Lat : 13:23:37 S Lon : 61:17:44 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /-180.5mb/ 45.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.0 3.0

Center Temp : -49.2C Cloud Region Temp : -35.6C

Scene Type : USER DEFINED INITIAL CLASSIFICATION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
Quoting 649. IDTH:

Okay so I took note of 5 years leading up to this year and you will notice something involving heat content, 2010 the Caribbean was relatively active with storms like Richard and after 2010 the next 5 years had a combined 2 Caribbean storms, Rina and Sandy in 2011 and 2012. That was 3 years of complete undisturbed waters and it shows greatly in the heat content map.

2010


2011


2012


2013


2014


2015


2016

Quite the hottub.
Quoting 651. PancakeState:



That's too much convection for this late in the night.
Moisture from a tropical Wave.
...
Quoting 640. Thrawst:



Need some rain here lol
Hey, it's not that bad ... we've been getting a few "driveby" squalls - five minutes of torrential rain in the early a.m. or in the afternoon. It's been enough to keep the dust down on the car, at least .... lol
Quoting 645. HadesGodWyvern:

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
Gale Warning
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ABELA (01-20162017)
4:00 AM RET July 18 2016
=================================
Northeast of St. Brandon

At 0:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Abela (1000 hPa) located at 13.2S 61.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 15 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=============
However the lack of oceanic energy already limits the convection intensity, which prevents a significant deepening. From Tuesday, in a sensibly drier environment and an increasing northwesterly wind shear ahead of an upper trough, Abela should weaken significantly. Some precipitations bands in Abela's periphery could reach the great Mascareignes islands from tonight.
So no hurricane force winds likely, then.....
Quoting 657. unknowncomic:

Quite the hottub.



and with a major heat wave for the mid W the gulf water is going to get hotter
Why the Atlantic is eerily quiet after busy start to hurricane season

Link
663. SLU
Correct me if i'm wrong-there has been worse SAL for this time of the season.

Quoting 648. HurricaneFan:

Could this qualify as a "closed low"? We saw TD 2 in 2014 form in a very similar dry, dusty enviornment, at the same time of year in a similar location.

Better question is does it last? That's been depicted in earlier runs, only to fizzle by the Antilles ...

BTW, and you find the Twave on this IR imagery?

666. SLU
Quoting 664. unknowncomic:

Correct me if i'm wrong-there has been worse SAL for this time of the season.




Yes. This here is pretty normal.
Here's the surface analysis ....



At this one doesn't look due to run into South America ....
i this found a vary old movie on you tube




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=srcP-Fu4v78
You know it's a slow July when we don't get 200 comments on a Sunday .... lol ...
Quoting 662. unknowncomic:

Why the Atlantic is eerily quiet after busy start to hurricane season

Link
They point to the the high as the instigator.... or suppressor, in this case. Just as I thought....
Quoting 651. PancakeState:



That's too much convection for this late in the night.


Not for late July on the SE Florida coast, not unusual at all.

Rainfall so far for the rainy season has been below average in most of Florida, though thunderstorms have been getting more better in coverage and more consistent lately.
Thunderstorms have also been very vigorous on a daily basis around here in Central FL with many cells with extreme amounts of lightning and a lot of cells near or at severe levels despite an environment not dynamically supportive of severe at all.

Quoting 670. BahaHurican:

They point to the the high as the instigator.... or suppressor, in this case. Just as I thought....
This high can also stop a recurve.(Until troughs show up in September)
Lower right feature has potential.

Quoting 673. unknowncomic:

Lower right feature has potential.




I Think the NHC will start to moniter this closer it looks great with a obvious mid level spin lets watch this closely i issue a blob alert lol
Quoting 674. James1981cane:



I Think the NHC will start to moniter this closer it looks great with a obvious mid level spin lets watch this closely i issue a blob alert lol

Crazier things have happened. Back in 2014, under similar conditions at the exact time of year, TD2 somewhat unexpectedly formed in a similar location. While I am not expecting this wave to develop at this time, I am not ruling out a short lived TD.
6 min to the falcon launch.
Quoting 676. Patrap:

6 min to the falcon launch.

Appears to be a successful launch.
Thanks for the heads up Patrap
Did anybody else hear a sonic boom just now (a few minutes before 1 am est)?
Quoting 679. HurrMichaelOrl:

Did anybody else hear a sonic boom just now (a few minutes before 1 am est)?

I heard the sonic boom from the first stage re-entry.

Beautiful launch. Seemed slow. Separation was a sight too. Sorry I didn't use a tripod. Sound was alright. There was a broken cloud deck it went through.

Hitting the cloud deck..


On the other side of the cloud deck..
What a crazy season...............
The heat content doesn't create storms it only sustains them
Quoting 657. unknowncomic:

Quite the hottub.
Just a sunny day😳
Quoting 639. BaltimoreBrian:

There was a lot of outrageous heat in the upper midwest in July 1936, with widespread 110s in Wisconsin and Minnesota. Even Duluth got to 106. It will be interesting to see if any places set new all time heat records.

From July 6-14 1936 Eau Claire Wisconsin had these highs: 103, 105, 103, 104, 107, 109, 110, 111, 111.
Imagine next year
Quoting 633. MrTornadochase:


I'm sure those temperatures would come close or break all time state temperature records if that comes true

That wave looks good. Let's see where it goes from here.
687. beell
Quoting 667. BahaHurican:

Here's the surface analysis ....



At this one doesn't look due to run into South America ....


Watching until it clears the western end of the monsoon trough today and leaves the better surface convergence behind.
no.model.support...(debby.downer)
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
437 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A weak upper level low across the northwest Bahamas and a tropical
wave well south of western Cuba both continue to move slowly
westward and have contributed to a flare up in convection across
the local Atlantic waters earlier this morning and across the
southern portion of South Florida and currently across the
Florida Straits. There is currently a pre-cautionary statement
across the Gulf and Atlantic waters with regional observations and
a recent ASCAT altimeter satellite pass that indicates easterly
winds 15 to near 20 knots across the regional Atlantic waters.

&&
690. beell
Per the GFS, the E/W orientation of the A/B ridge axis will shift to the south and reorient more to the SW/NE over the next couple of days. Presumably in response to troughing over the NE US and NW Atlantic. This may suppress the ITCZ and its moisture to the south a bit.


06Z GFS 10 m wind, surface pressure @ 0 hrs


06Z GFS 10 m wind, surface pressure @ 24 hrs


06Z GFS 10 m wind, surface pressure @ 72 hrs

String of lows on the 48 & 72 hr frames delineating the ITCZ/monsoon trough (an elongated area of lower pressure).

691. MahFL
Quoting 664. unknowncomic:

Correct me if i'm wrong-there has been worse SAL for this time of the season.




Correct that SAL is getting broken up.
692. beell
Quoting 688. islander101010:

no.model.support...(debby.downer)


Call it like you see it. If development continues, change your forecast!
Same here. Vines are huge. Neighbors are happy. Garden is a gangly mess however. As soon as melons come in I'm going tear it up and plant the fall crop. Banner grapes this year. One vine has already made 2 gallons of wine and probably enough for 2 more.


Quoting 646. Patrap:



A wet summer has led to a bumper crop of cherry tomatoes.
694. SuzK
Quoting 625. Neapolitan:

From this morning:

Label this under "Things you don't see every day":




I predict a sweet storm will pass right over that area sometime during the peak of the season. Not just close, but right over it. I'll be watching.
Good Morning Folks: the global tropics this morning in terms of active storms with a few potentials out there:

Combined image of all basins





And looking to Africa and the Central Atlantic this morning:




watched the little and weak system yesterday and it seems to be there still. still weak and little 54w11n
Waters around the Cape Verde Islands now up to around 26c with 28c across portions of the middle passage to the Lesser Antilles:



699. MahFL
A little bit of MJO where the tropical wave is:

The Central American monsoon keeps generating t-storm seeds for potential E-Pac storms down stream. In terms of the Central Atlantic, that wave is going through some shear and not quite high enough in latitude at present. It will either keep on moving towards South America or gain a little bit and bring some needed rains to Trinidad and the Southern Antilles:

701. MahFL
Favorable shear between 40W and 58W:

Le Beautiful poem I found when I was browsing the NHC
June too soon.
July stand by.
August look out you must.
September remember.
October all over
703. 882MB
Nice T-Wave.





705. Ed22
Quoting 704. Climate175:


This Tropical wave looks very impressive and More moisture is creeping in southern Caribbean too, however things are about to get started in our side of the tropics...
706. Ed22
Quoting 703. 882MB:

Nice T-Wave.






It looks like the CCKW and its lifting mechanisms is here.
Quoting 703. 882MB:

Nice T-Wave.






Yep...And its doin a twist...

Not bad looking circulation below 10N attached to wave but will it sustain down the road is the question.

Lots of interesting features out there on the Atlantic side of things; the low-riding wave in the Central Atlantic, the two mini-waves (one to the East of the Lesser Antilles around 12N and the one to the NE of Puerto Rico around 21N), and the heavier convection in the South Caribbean to the North of Panama. However, NHC does not develop any of these features:





Quoting 703. 882MB:

Nice T-Wave.








I see three:
Earl doin a curl,
Fiona looking like a pearl,
and Gaston
going head-on.
713. MahFL
Shear got even better between 40W and 59W:


714. Ed22
Quoting 709. weathermanwannabe:


That impressive feature over the southern Caribbean need to be watched but wind-shear soon start dropping, however that impressive tropical wave have a nice spin to it; it could maintain it and N.H.C mention it their outlook, maybe; just maybe.
Quoting 715. Grothar:




Hi Grothar-

that looks healthy but I wonder if it can steer clear of SAL and make something of itself if it can lift out of ITZ.
Quoting 708. Tropicsweatherpr:

Not bad looking circulation below 10N attached to wave but will it sustain down the road is the question.




Indeed, our tropical wave in question is looking much more healthy after an added boost from DMAX overnight... Its spin also seems to be a bit more pronounced and there appears to be at least some wrapping of convection at work perhaps in its northeast quadrant.
Essentially the system maybe attempting to effect a closed circulation down to its LLC. Time will tell... it will be interesting to see how it will structured by Wednesday God willing.
This system is somewhat reminiscent for me of Tomas (2010) -in terms of its potential respective to its latitude for tropical cyclone genesis possibility.

God Bless!
CPC update of 7/18/16 has Nino 3.4 down to -0.6C at La Nina territory but it has to wait for three months to then announce officially La Nina.

Link
Well they said it couldn't be done....it would never happen.....the models were wrong....well.....todays weekly ENSO values are in and the nino 3.4 region registered a -0.6.....that's la nina territory......now for those that are new to this...we're not in a la nina yet...however...it's looking more like it day by day.......
The wave is what the GFS developed here and there on its operational and ensembles.I think it dropped it on the ensembles too
Quoting 718. Tropicsweatherpr:

CPC update of 7/18/16 has Nino 3.4 down to -0.6C at La Nina territory but it has to wait for three months to then announce officially La Nina.

Link

LOL...you beat me by a minute
Quoting 719. ricderr:

Well they said it couldn't be done....it would never happen.....the models were wrong....well.....todays weekly ENSO values are in and the nino 3.4 region registered a -0.6.....that's la nina territory......now for those that are new to this...we're not in a la nina yet...however...it's looking more like it day by day.......
Don't you know we're going to see El nino conditions come summer 2017? :) Who told you to post a unbiased and factual post!? lol
RE: The bathtub full of rocket fuel in the Caribbean and Gulf -- bear in mind that from the Western Carib through the Gulf and out to the East coast US, that is the course of the Gulf Stream with a surface flow rate of about 5-1/2mph, so that water is not sitting there for years getting warmer. The heat is caused by the atmosphere's increased retention of warmth as well as water vapor, and the latter reduces evaporative cooling of the waters.
The way the flow is coming off the Atlantic has me a little worried, if it stays that way to a certain degree. Being that i live here on the coast in ecfl. Seems like a storm would come in somewhere along the coast. Andrew, Frances, Jean etc.
Quoting 715. Grothar:


Very nice looking.
702...

The one I heard many years ago was almost the same:
.June too soon.
July stand by.
August be cautious.
September remember.
October all over.
727. SLU
area ne ofPRico is vibrant if it can hold together till it get near Fl. might have a shot. daytona bch. water temp acc to local weather tv 89f. 86f here in e cen florida
Quoting 709. weathermanwannabe:




It's either too low, or too high :(

That blob just north of us could have brought some good rains IF....
October all over? lol who came up with that slogan? Wilma,Hazel and Sandy have something to say about that...
JeffMasters has created a new entry.

Quoting 730. washingtonian115:

October all over? lol who came up with that slogan? Wilma,Hazel and Sandy have something to say about that...
Hazel was a huge doozy for this region.