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The Eastern Pacific is Sizzling; Nothing Cooking in the Atlantic

By: Jeff Masters 3:36 PM GMT on July 11, 2016

The Eastern Pacific, which got off to its second slowest start on record on July 2 when Tropical Storm Agatha formed, is in the midst of an extraordinary period of July activity, thanks to favorable genesis conditions created by the presence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO.) Hurricane Blas, which reached Category 4 strength last week, but has since become post-tropical, has now been replaced by Hurricane Celia, which formed on Friday morning. Celia is expected to become a Category 2 hurricane late Monday before reaching cooler waters less than 26°C (79°F). These cooler waters that Celia will encounter beginning on Tuesday should induce a long-term weakening trend. Long-range runs from the GFS and European models on Monday morning predicted that a weak Tropical Storm Celia would pass within 500 miles of the Hawaiian Islands on Monday July 18, potentially giving the islands some high surf and heavy rains. However, it is too early to assess the odds of this happening.


Figure 1. VIIRS visible satellite image of ex-Hurricane Blas, Hurricane Celia, and Invest 97E taken on Sunday afternoon, July 10, 2016. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Wind forecast for 2 am EDT Sunday, July 17, 2016, from the 8 pm EDT Sunday, July 10, 2016 forecast of the GFS model. The GFS model was predicting that there would be three simultaneous named storms in the Eastern Pacific. Image created using our wundermap with the "Model Data" layer turned on.

Darby and Estelle on the way
Tropical Storm Darby is expected to join Celia soon, as Monday morning satellite imagery showed that an area of disturbed weather located about 350 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico (97E) was getting close to tropical depression status. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97E 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 80% and 90%, respectively.

Tropical Storm Estelle is also likely on the way--both the European and GFS models show an area of disturbed weather will develop several hundred miles southwest of the coast of Mexico by the end of this week, and this disturbance has the potential to intensify into a tropical storm over the weekend. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this future disturbance 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 20%, respectively. These potential future Darby and Estelle storms are expected to follow a path similar to Agatha, Blas, and Celia--generally west to west-northwest, away from Mexico. If the Eastern Pacific manages to spit out a Tropical Storm Frank before the end of the month--which is quite possible, given the long-range forecasts of the continued presence of the MJO over the Eastern Pacific into the end of July--this would give us six named storms for the month, which would approach the July record (from 1985) of seven named storms forming in the Eastern Pacific, according to NHC hurricane scientist Eric Blake.


Figure 3. The tropical Atlantic is dominated by dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), seen in orange colors in this satellite analysis from the Meteosat bird. Continued outbreaks of dust and dry air from the SAL are expected over the tropical Atlantic into next week, according to recent model runs. Image credit: University of Wisconsin/CIMSS.

Nothing cooking in the Atlantic except African dust
As is usually the case when the Eastern Pacific is active, the Atlantic is quiet. This anti-correlation in activity occurs because rising air over the tropical Eastern Pacific typically creates a compensating area of sinking air over the tropical Atlantic. This sinking air creates surface high pressure and dry weather--the antithesis of conditions needed for tropical cyclone formation. There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming five days. I'd be surprised to see a serious threat area develop in the Atlantic until the Eastern Pacific's spasm of activity slows down.


Figure 4. A woman cleans mud and debris after flooding in China's Fujian Province on July 10, 2016 after Tropical Storm Nepartak's landfall. Image credit: Zhang Guojun/XInhua via AP.

Typhoon Nepartak's aftermath: 12 dead, $200 million in damage
Typhoon Nepartak sloshed ashore as a weakening tropical storm over China's Fujian Province on Saturday, July 9, bringing heavy rains of 4 - 8" in this region of China closest to Taiwan. The resulting flooding is being blamed for 9 deaths in China. Eighteen people are missing, and damage is estimated at $135 million. In Taiwan, where Nepartak powered ashore on July 7 as a Category 4 super typhoon with top sustained winds of 150 mph, three deaths are being blamed on the storm, with over $62 million in damage.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Atlantic doldrums
Hoping the Atlantic stays quiet for a long, long time...
good lunch time read
thanks doc
ep is in epic mode
good most are sea storms
Special weather statement in effect for:
•City of Toronto

A hot and humid airmass from the Gulf of Mexico will affect most of southern Ontario from Tuesday through Thursday.

The heat will arrive during the day Tuesday with highs of 30 to 33 in most places. Wednesday and Thursday are also expected to be very warm, however, some areas could see some occasional relief due to the possibility of showers or thunderstorms.

The nights will be warm and muggy with overnight lows of 20 to 23.

A somewhat cooler airmass is forecast to move in Thursday night.

Heat warnings will likely be issued today for most of southern Ontario.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.
Thanks for the update. Lots of Saharan dust in the Houston area today, the horizon is brown.
Thanks for the update. I was about to post this in the last blog when the "endbot" appeared :
Quoting 304. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The East Pacific tropical cyclone outbreak looks to continue on, and on, and on, and on, and on, and...



Funny gif, it looks like a computer's joke ; but the cannon is still firing and the last storms did fulfill models expectations. It's almost as if for some reason the E Pac needs to spit out as much storms as possible. I hope Hawaii will dodge them all. A look in the rear-view mirror (but it was at the end of August, not at the beginning of July; don't know if it's a significant fact in itself) :


mid summer time for the heat wave
Quoting 2. ConchConvert:

Hoping the Atlantic stays quiet for a long, long time...
Don't expect any activity for the next 3 and a half weeks.
Quoting 387. RobertWC:



More than 800,000 people in India’s most populous state jostled for space Monday as they attempted to plant 50 million trees in 24 hours in the hopes of shattering the world record.

Link


Wow that's amazing! Thanks so much for posting this. The previous record being just over 800,000 in a day to 50 million - they'll beat the record by a massive landslide! Great to see India investing in projects such as this - I hope it'll resonate with other countries - particularly in the western world. The UK government promised to plant 11 million trees between 2015 and 2020 with 5,000 hectares being planted per year - but it's missing its target hugely with only 700 hectares planted in 2015. Tree planting has hit an all time low in the UK and in fact we're cutting down more trees than planting and are at risk of deforestation unless something changes soon.
Quoting 6. Greg01:

Thanks for the update. Lots of Saharan dust in the Houston area today, the horizon is brown.


The conveyor belt is in place between West Africa and the GOM. It's a good thing that the only stuff it's bringing to town is dust. I had to rinse the car off this morning after it sat outside over the weekend, the runoff was a dark brown, not like the usual Texas dirt.
Quoting 13. Icantthinkofausernam:



The conveyor belt is in place between West Africa and the GOM. It's a good thing that the only stuff it's bringing to town is dust. I had to rinse the car off this morning after it sat outside over the weekend, the runoff was a dark brown, not like the usual Texas dirt.
no that be Mexico dust wv I posted shows where the dust is coming from the dark bright blue is dry zones
The Great Barrier Reef’s future is as uncertain as the Australian Prime Minister’s

The Great Barrier Reef was a key talking point in the run up to Australia’s federal election as politicians promised billions to improve water quality, whilst talking down coral bleaching and report rigging. Ecologist writer, Maxine Newlands, reports…

Link
Somehow I got banned for 3 hrs on this blog for some reason yesterday. Anyways like I said yesterday this year hurricane season is going to be slow, ready for my winter storms
Celia looks terrible today. It has struggled with dry air far more than it was supposed to, especially this early. It is unlikely to become a major hurricane and may have already peaked.

Bring on WINTER I repeat bring on WINTER!!!!
Quoting 18. Accu3535:

Bring on WINTER I repeat bring on WINTER!!!!


Second!!
Thanks dok!
Quoting 14. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

no that be Mexico dust wv I posted shows where the dust is coming from the dark bright blue is dry zones


http://abc13.com/weather/a-thin-layer-of-saharan- dust-will-create-a-hazy-sky-over-southeast-texas/8 99820/

While it is being pulled from the Southwest, it is Saharan dust that ended up over Mexico and has wrapped back around into Texas. There's a good shot of it at around the 1 minute mark in the video at the link above (assuming it works, I don't know the URL policy here). When we get the Mexican dust, it's usually a much darker brown, almost reddish. That stuff is fun because it often arrives in rain, so it's essentially raining mud in the area, making a nasty mess.
Quoting 18. Accu3535:

Bring on WINTER I repeat bring on WINTER!!!!

soon enough
we got about 2 months of this stuff to go
then we get the dramatic event to break it all
and take us to fall
Quoting 18. Accu3535:

Bring on WINTER I repeat bring on WINTER!!!!
I third that! Although, I still think we got to watch for what August and September will bring for Hurricane Season.
IF we continue to have these relatively quiet hurricane season with no big strikes in the US (namely a FL hurricane or major US landfall), might not be good with people being lulled into obliviousness to the danger when it does happen.
Long Range, but stronger waves starting to show up.
I guess we're looking at AUgust for the restart of activity in the Atlantic. I am going to reduce my prediction to 18 named storms total now.
yesterday was very hazy driving from north of houston into downtown. but it helped to keep the temperatures down a bit.

Quoting 13. Icantthinkofausernam:



The conveyor belt is in place between West Africa and the GOM. It's a good thing that the only stuff it's bringing to town is dust. I had to rinse the car off this morning after it sat outside over the weekend, the runoff was a dark brown, not like the usual Texas dirt.
Quoting 21. Icantthinkofausernam:



http://abc13.com/weather/a-thin-layer-of-saharan- dust-will-create-a-hazy-sky-over-southeast-texas/8 99820/

While it is being pulled from the Southwest, it is Saharan dust that ended up over Mexico and has wrapped back around into Texas. There's a good shot of it at around the 1 minute mark in the video at the link above (assuming it works, I don't know the URL policy here). When we get the Mexican dust, it's usually a much darker brown, almost reddish. That stuff is fun because it often arrives in rain, so it's essentially raining mud in the area, making a nasty mess.


Here's your correct link
Link
This Saharan dust is also affecting us in South Florida. We have not seen rain for almost 2 weeks in inland Boca Raton, FL(West Boca). Anybody else in Florida feeling the effects of the Saharan dust?
Afternoon all .... Bahamian Independence holiday is being celebrated today, since yesterday, July 10th, was the 43rd anniversary. Sure, we're far behind other people in terms of years, but not at all in terms of pride and love for country .... [insert appropriate gif here, which I would do if only I could figure out how .... lol]

We are currently at a moderate 88 degrees, slightly cooler than on some previous days in the last week. I fully expect we'll exceed the projected 90-degree high by three p.m. Thank goodness for the ESEerly @ 9 mph ... keeps us from being fried, grilled or boiled, and allows us to start frying, grilling or otherwise cooking for those Independence family cookouts ...

Later, all. I'll prolly duck in here when the heat outside gets too overpowering .... lol ....
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters...
32. bwi
Quick update from the northern hemisphere's freezer/air conditioner.

After being at record lows for most of the year, sea ice area, extent, and volume slipped out of record territory in June and early July, thanks to lots of cloudy low pressure systems crossing the Arctic during the weeks of max insolation. (I don't hope to understand the full physics of cloud-ice interactions, but in general during peak summer, sunny weather melts more ice.)



While Jan through May were at least 3rd warmest, June was only 20th or so.

Lots of warm weather and sun around the periphery of the Arctic ocean, but for now it looks like the central basin is in little danger of melting out completely this year, or even breaking 2012's record lows. GFS and EC both predic another low pressure this week.



This is the only webcam I know of on the central ice (roughly between Alaska and the pole). Melt ponds forming, but still plenty of ice out there for now!

Quoting 29. birdsrock2016:

This Saharan dust is also affecting us in South Florida. We have not seen rain for almost 2 weeks in inland Boca Raton, FL(West Boca). Anybody else in Florida feeling the effects of the Saharan dust?


It's been hit or miss over here in the Fort Myers area. Every day in the late afternoon we've had some storms in the area, but they are spotty. Normally, the coverage of storms would be a lot more.

Only 1.72" so far this month, which is a couple inches below average for this date (we normally see 9.04" for the month here).
Quoting 22. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


soon enough
we got about 2 months of this stuff to go
then we get the dramatic event to break it all
and take us to fall
Maybe where you live.
Let me get ready.
Quoting 29. birdsrock2016:

This Saharan dust is also affecting us in South Florida. We have not seen rain for almost 2 weeks in inland Boca Raton, FL(West Boca). Anybody else in Florida feeling the effects of the Saharan dust?


Not sure about dust but here in NE Fl it's dry as a bone, some of the bushes are in distress in my yard.
Quoting 31. PedleyCA:

Thanks for the update Dr. Masters...


Hey Pedley, nice to see you, how is the weather on your side?

Here is my 7 day forecast:



The usual, hot and humid on my side , although the Saharan dust is preventing any rain from forming over the past 2 weeks. AC still running full time.
Quoting 35. Gearsts:

Let me get ready.



Doom ! yay !
Quoting 29. birdsrock2016:

This Saharan dust is also affecting us in South Florida. We have not seen rain for almost 2 weeks in inland Boca Raton, FL(West Boca). Anybody else in Florida feeling the effects of the Saharan dust?


Yup. Its been Dry and Hot in Hollywood, FL. Its been 2-4 degrees above average for the last 7 days.

https://www.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wf o=mfl
Quoting 36. MahFL:



Not sure about dust but here in NE Fl it's dry as a bone, some of the bushes are in distress in my yard.


I think this could be another drought year like 2015 in which South Florida had an extreme drought. We have only had 0.11 inches in July so far.
Saharan dust in Galveston





Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 2h2 hours ago Walnut Creek, CA
The most recent forecasts from CFS continues to predict above-normal shear for Atlantic Main Develop. Region for ASO
Quoting 12. Envoirment:



Wow that's amazing! Thanks so much for posting this. The previous record being just over 800,000 in a day to 50 million - they'll beat the record by a massive landslide! Great to see India investing in projects such as this - I hope it'll resonate with other countries - particularly in the western world. The UK government promised to plant 11 million trees between 2015 and 2020 with 5,000 hectares being planted per year - but it's missing its target hugely with only 700 hectares planted in 2015. Tree planting has hit an all time low in the UK and in fact we're cutting down more trees than planting and are at risk of deforestation unless something changes soon.


I read somewhere that it's because of the large government EU subsidies for 'farmland'. And apparently the likes of Romania have had wealthy investors/land grabbers buy up the land to bulldoze it down to meet the criteria to get the subsidies, levelling forests. The latter was from The Guardian, so people can take that as they will.


TropicalAnalystwx13 gets my vote for post of the month with the model gif :P



High of 16c here today, and supposed to be for the next few days...am very happy with that!
is there any correlation of where the dust ends up of july and the cyclones hits of august sept? if so watch out texas.
Quoting 42. Gearsts:

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 2h2 hours ago Walnut Creek, CA
The most recent forecasts from CFS continues to predict above-normal shear for Atlantic Main Develop. Region for ASO


Like many have been predicting for months now. Less favorable Central/East Atlantic, more favorable Gulf and Caribbean:

Quoting 41. RitaEvac:

Saharan dust in Galveston








Never mind the weather...look at that pier whoar! LOL
Quoting 35. Gearsts:

Let me get ready.

(Looks at time stamp) Nuff said...
Quoting 44. islander101010:

is there any correlation of where the dust ends up of july and the cyclones hits of august sept? if so watch out texas.
I was just reading about that on a blog, the flow of the SAL, can give hints to future storm paths.
Looks impressive coming off African coast, even though it is at 384.
Quoting 45. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Like many have been predicting for months now. Less favorable Central/East Atlantic, more favorable Gulf and Caribbean:




That's not good at all.
Quoting 49. unknowncomic:

Looks impressive coming off African coast, even though it is at 384.



Boom bobba Boom, Boom babba... it's too fat and heavy, gonna sink towards the equator into the southern hemisphere
Climate Change May Already Be Shifting Clouds Toward The Poles

The way clouds cover the Earth may be changing because of global warming, according to a study published Monday that used satellite data to track cloud patterns across about two decades, starting in the 1980s.

Clouds in the mid-latitudes shifted toward the poles during that period, as the subtropical dry zones expanded and the highest cloud-tops got higher.

These changes are predicted by most climate models of global warming, even though those models disag"ree on a lot of other things related to clouds, says Joel Norris, a climate scientist at the University of California, San Diego.

"I guess what was surprising is that a lot of times we think of climate change as something that's going to occur in the future," says Norris. "This is happening right now. It's happened during my lifetime — it was a bit startling.


NPR
An interesting item of note: the hurricane season after the last record-breaking El Niño of 1997-98 didn't produce it's first named storm (TS Alex) until July 28th and that storm formed in the MDR. Then after that it was storm after storm, including an October monster cat 5 named Mitch. Who knows, we could see similar behavior from the Atlantic this year.
Quoting 45. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Like many have been predicting for months now. Less favorable Central/East Atlantic, more favorable Gulf and Caribbean:

Quoting 50. 62901IL:

That's not good at all.

Except - maybe - for some parts of C. America :
Central American drought: Millions in need of humanitarian aid
By Lisa Nikolau on 6 July 2016 - Humanosphere.org.
Quoting 27. mcdsara1:

yesterday was very hazy driving from north of houston into downtown. but it helped to keep the temperatures down a bit.


Skies here have been that metalic looking blue since about last Friday ... dust fall hasn't been too bad so far. Guess it's staying aloft a bit longer so it can fall on TX .... lol . ...

Quoting 50. 62901IL:



That's not good at all.
Certainly not good for the Caymans.
Quoting 35. Gearsts:

Let me get ready.

If this happens, it would be very much on time climatologically ...
Quoting 54. 999Ai2016:



Except - maybe - for some parts of C. America :
Central American drought: Millions in need of humanitarian aid
By Lisa Nikolau on 6 July 2016 - Humanosphere.org.

If we do get an active CAR season, these people would be like TX ... massive drought to potentially massive flood ...
Fossil Fuel Industry Risks Losing $33 Trillion to Climate Change

Link
The East Pac is spitting them out. Looks like we will have TD Five-E/TS Darby shortly.

It's startling to see what shear levels are in the Gulf and Caribbean right now. Going to be interesting to see what SSTs are going to do in the Eastern Pacific and Central Pacific after five straight substantial storms. Atlantic's turn not until Late June onward likely. How many more storms can the East Pacific produce in that time frame?
Quoting 37. birdsrock2016:



Hey Pedley, nice to see you, how is the weather on your side?

Here is my 7 day forecast:



The usual, hot and humid on my side , although the Saharan dust is preventing any rain from forming over the past 2 weeks. AC still running full time.

This is from the Indian Hills PWS, about 1/2 mile North of me. Normal (KRAL) is 92/64,

Dayum, it is starting to get HOT starting Wednesday...
Well Robert, at least their very close friends still have war, they will try hard to not let it get to the point where the FFI lose like that.
Nice spin at 10N 40W
Quoting 54. 999Ai2016:



Except - maybe - for some parts of C. America :
Central American drought: Millions in need of humanitarian aid
By Lisa Nikolau on 6 July 2016 - Humanosphere.org.



Thank you 999Ai2016 for that link to humanosphere.org. the reporters who do stories on the changing environment and other issues. That's worth reading.
Quoting 35. Gearsts:

Let me get ready.


Seems to be right on time as forecast by the MJO. Lets see if the consistency continues with the models over the days.
Interesting... Clouds moving north due to warming.

Seems possible as Robert suggests
Quoting 65. bigwes6844:


Seems to be right on time as forecast by the MJO. Lets see if the consistency continues with the models over the days.

Also if you notice it comes off at the right latitude for development, so does the wave that comes off before it.
Quoting 45. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Like many have been predicting for months now. Less favorable Central/East Atlantic, more favorable Gulf and Caribbean:




I agree the area near the Bahamas needs to be watched too. We all saw in horror what Joaquin did there. The way this weather pattern is locked in it appears we could be in some serious trouble in a few weeks. Reason I say this is the Euro and GFS although weak are beginning to show atleast maybe some invest coming off Africa in the 8 to 16 day range.
Thanks Dr. The current E-Pac activity due to the MJO is spitting out storms much like the Cape Verde hurricane "clusters" that we often see coming off of Africa in the peak period.....................While the Central Atlantic is dry as a dust bowl at present, the waves are still there and will start to get a bit more robust in a few weeks:


we have TD 5-E


EP, 05, 2016071118, , BEST, 0, 151N, 1060W, 30, 1007, LO
Quoting 70. Tazmanian:

we have TD 5-E


EP, 05, 2016071118, , BEST, 0, 151N, 1060W, 30, 1007, LO


YES!!!!!!!!!!!! YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WOOOOHOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! OH YEAH!!!!!!!!! THANK YOU HURRICANE GOD!!!!!!!!!
Quoting 65. bigwes6844:


Seems to be right on time as forecast by the MJO. Lets see if the consistency continues with the models over the days.



I think thing everyone has been harping on is that the models have been consistently showing this MJO moving into the Atlantic Basin for the better part of two months now. The only consistency is that it keeps getting pushed back time after time.
Quoting 73. Tazmanian:




well you stop with that stuff that kind of stuff is not needed you act like a 3 year old when you do that


I was just expressing how happy I was.
Quoting 75. Tazmanian:



no need too act like a 3 year old why doing it


Yeah, you are probably right.
Quoting 41. RitaEvac:

Saharan dust in Galveston








That's just bad picture (focus) quality of the pier. We have a bunch of clear looking and poor quality (bad focus) live cams here.
Overall, looks like a pretty sunny day in Galveston. A little haze to the air but not too bad.

And here it is....
im still thinking about this storm as it went backwards during that el nino year. That was an amazing storm.

Wide area of 31-33 degree celsius waters in the GOM and northwestern caribbean.
Quoting 80. washingtonian115:


Zang!
Heat Warning in effect for:
•City of Toronto

Humidex values reaching near 40 are expected.

Heat and humidity will arrive Tuesday over the regions with high temperatures reaching near 32 degrees until Thursday. Night time lows will also be warm in the 19 to 21 degree range Tuesday and Wednesday nights. There may be temporary relief from the heat due to showers or thunderstorms. Cooler weather will arrive by Friday.

Frequently visit neighbours, friends and older family members, especially those who are chronically ill, to make sure that they are cool and hydrated.

Never leave people or pets in your care inside a parked vehicle or in direct sunlight.

Heat warnings are issued when very high temperature or humidity conditions are expected to pose an elevated risk of heat illnesses, such as heat stroke or heat exhaustion.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.
Quoting 79. bigwes6844:

im still thinking about this storm as it went backwards during that el nino year. That was an amazing storm.

not really that's the more traditional storm movement for November storms
Hurricane Rita Evacuations 2005. This photo just shows the fear of the people after Katrina came few weeks earlier.
Quoting 81. Climate175:

Zang!
Do you see the photo? because I can't see it.
Quoting 81. Climate175:

Zang!
check that pink out off the coast of Louisiana boiling hot!
Quoting 85. washingtonian115:

Do you see the photo? because I can't see it.
I saw it, but now it's gone.
Quoting 83. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

not really that's the more traditional storm movement for November storms
I definitely understand that. but it was so unique how it formed that particular year so late in the season. It looked like a storm that would normally form in august or September. and also how it stayed intact as it approached the islands. normally in November you'll see a whole lot of wind shear or something to disrupt this system but it was nicely formed.
Quoting 89. bigwes6844:

I definitely understand that. but it was so unique how it formed that particular year so late in the season. It looked like a storm that would normally form in august or September. and also how it stayed intact as it approached the islands. normally in November you'll see a whole lot of wind shear or something to disrupt this system but it was nicely formed.

I'd actually argue its track was the least typical thing about Lenny, there have been a few cat 4's in November but a due east track in the Caribbean is pretty much unprecidented, maybe Omar 08 or Hanna 14 but there are not many
I wonder if those Eastern Pacific hurricanes might send some moisture towards California. I'm sure they could use the rain.
The contoured map for current global SSTs; the Gulf of Mexico is starting to get way up there in the scheme of things; hope that a potential major does not get into the Gomex this year in a low shear environment:



Quoting 92. tallowAndPines:

I wonder if those Eastern Pacific hurricanes might send some moisture towards California. I'm sure they could use the rain.
looks like the same as it always is and will be

Quoting 93. weathermanwannabe:

The contoured map for current global SSTs; the Gulf of Mexico is starting to get way up there in the scheme of things; hope that a potential major does not get into the Gomex this year in a low shear environment:




kinda similar to what the Indian Ocean was showing about a month ago. Can you imagine the blog having a season like the Indian Ocean has? storms rarely popping up
I am very surprised to see this:
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016
200 PM PDT MON JUL 11 2016

...CELIA STRENGTHENS SOME MORE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE
OPEN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 126.2W
ABOUT 1190 MI...1910 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES

Just look at the satellite presentation:


On the other paw...
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016
300 PM MDT MON JUL 11 2016

...ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 106.3W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
Hi, Just a question about Atlantic names. Igor & Tomas were both retired in 2010, but they are up on this years list ?#9, & #19. I thought once a name was retired, that was it ? I know the rotation schedule for issuance of names, Just seems strange these 2 are back on the list......did I miss something ?

Thank You, Jack LeBlanc
Quoting 98. jackleblanc55:

Hi, Just a question about Atlantic names. Igor & Tomas were both retired in 2010, but they are up on this years list ?#9, & #19. I thought once a name was retired, that was it ? I know the rotation schedule for issuance of names, Just seems strange these 2 are back on the list......did I miss something ?

Thank You, Jack LeBlanc


with the exception of Ian and Tobias, which replaced Igor and Tomas, respectively Scroll down to Storm Names

Where did you see that Igor&Tomas were on the list again?
Quoting 98. jackleblanc55:

Hi, Just a question about Atlantic names. Igor & Tomas were both retired in 2010, but they are up on this years list ?#9, & #19. I thought once a name was retired, that was it ? I know the rotation schedule for issuance of names, Just seems strange these 2 are back on the list......did I miss something ?

Thank You, Jack LeBlanc


2016
Alex
Bonnie
Colin
Danielle
Earl
Fiona
Gaston
Hermine
Ian
Julia
Karl
Lisa
Matthew
Nicole
Otto
Paula
Richard
Shary
Tobias
Virginie
Walter
source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml
Igor is long gone for sure.
Quoting 90. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Warming up nicely, just in time for the heart of the season, this could be a very bad land falling hurricane season for the Southeast, Florida, and the Gulf Coast states.
Quoting 43. mitthbevnuruodo:



I read somewhere that it's because of the large government EU subsidies for 'farmland'. And apparently the likes of Romania have had wealthy investors/land grabbers buy up the land to bulldoze it down to meet the criteria to get the subsidies, levelling forests. The latter was from The Guardian, so people can take that as they will.


Well perhaps the Brexit will have a positive impact on the UK's forests? Always looking for positives lol
Quoting 93. weathermanwannabe:

The contoured map for current global SSTs; the Gulf of Mexico is starting to get way up there in the scheme of things; hope that a potential major does not get into the Gomex this year in a low shear environment:




Not just the Gulf, but the East Coast, from Florida into the Bahamas, along with the Caribbean all are prime for monster hurricanes, when the season starts by the end of July, all the way through Mid to Late October.
A blog on Celia and Five-E:

Link
Quoting 105. TropicalAnalystwx13:

A blog on Celia and Five-E:

Link


it should become a hurricane around 48 hours. There is some discrepancy with the storm's ultimate peak, with the LGEM reaching 68kt, the SHIPS reaching 81kt, the HWRF and GFS indicating a Category 2 hurricane, and the ECMWF highlighting a Category 3 hurricane. All considered, my forecast calls for Five-E to intensify into Tropical Storm Blas

blas is back from the dead ?
Quoting 106. Tazmanian:



it should become a hurricane around 48 hours. There is some discrepancy with the storm's ultimate peak, with the LGEM reaching 68kt, the SHIPS reaching 81kt, the HWRF and GFS indicating a Category 2 hurricane, and the ECMWF highlighting a Category 3 hurricane. All considered, my forecast calls for Five-E to intensify into Tropical Storm Blas

blas is back from the dead ?

Fixed. :)
This may interest some. A well-known SPC lead forecaster and storm researcher retires...


image credit: SPC website
Quoting 107. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Fixed. :)


TD 5-E RI? i wounder if it has a eye wall yet

i think that TD 5 should be upgraded

Quoting 109. Tazmanian:



TD 5-E RI? i wounder if it has a eye wall yet

i think that TD 5 should be upgraded



No upgrade needed. Satellite intensity estimates don't support a tropical storm, nor do the ASCAT passes a few hours ago that showed 25-30kt surface winds. And no, there is no eyewall--it's a tropical depression.
Quoting 110. TropicalAnalystwx13:


No upgrade needed. Satellite intensity estimates don't support a tropical storm, nor do the ASCAT passes a few hours ago that showed 25-30kt surface winds. And no, there is no eyewall--it's a tropical depression.


It's just a really nice looking (normal??) tropical discussion, E-Pac is spoiling Taz. We need more of the clumps of disorganization in the Atlantic that get upgraded.
Nice Temps Dakster....
113. beell
Quoting 83. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

not really that's the more traditional storm movement for November storms


C'mon, KEEP. It was "wrong-way-Lenny"

i remember wrong way lenny and he did extensive damage to the ne windwards. since he was moving the wrong way damage occurred on the usually safe side of the islands.
It's pretty sad that we can't even get a GFS run with a Storm not unless it's 384 hrs away. Let's go ahead and call it quits for this hurricane season, BRING ON WINTER!!!
18z GFS wants to stick to it, still long range though.
The GFS still shows a dead Atlantic and a active east pacific....Shades of 2014 anyone?
lol...It'll be gone by next run...
Quoting 115. Accu3535:

It's pretty sad that we can't even get a GFS run with a Storm not unless it's 384 hrs away. Let's go ahead and call it quits for this hurricane season, BRING ON WINTER!!!


We aren't even into August yet, calm down on calling quits part. Geesh.
What the models have been consistent with is the high pressure that doesn't want to seem to budge at all which means more heat for us along the east coast.
Quoting 113. beell:



C'mon, KEEP. It was "wrong-way-Lenny"




And of course it struck my area :)
Quoting 119. washingtonian115:

lol...It'll be gone by next run...



Hopefully not... :)
Yeesh, I knew the seesaw would tip the other way but I didn't expect the Atlantic to completely fly off. What a massive swing in activity. The MJO really changed conditions that much? Clearly it can't in the Atlantic, or does it just not reach the Atlantic? I am unfamiliar with the MJO and just how much it can effect a basin's activity. I also thought the MJO was a relatively fast-moving phenomenon, it seems to have been stuck in the same place for a while.
Tropical Wave nearing 40w and 10n is showing signs of organization. Presence of a low level vorticity maximum. shear is low and SSTs are good.
Quoting 115. Accu3535:

It's pretty sad that we can't even get a GFS run with a Storm not unless it's 384 hrs away. Let's go ahead and call it quits for this hurricane season, BRING ON WINTER!!!

These kind of comments are ignorant and all around counterproductive to the message the NWS has been pushing for decades now. It is July 11. We're not even to the climatological date of the second named storm (August 1) yet we're waiting for our fifth. You only have to go back a little over a decade, to 2004, to find a season that started slow (Alex formed on July 31) but ended up being memorable. Even if by some chance we only saw a handful of named storms for the rest of the year, it only takes one bad setup to make that storm incredibly deadly and destructive. The people making these posts need to take a step back and study history and climatology.
Here we go again. Never so many severe storms. Just about every day.

. A Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect until 730 PM EDT
for northwestern Florence... southwestern Marlboro and Darlington
counties...

At 705 PM EDT... a severe thunderstorm was located near
Darlington... moving east at 40 mph.

Hazard... 60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

Source... radar indicated.

Impact... hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to
roofs... siding... and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Florence... Bennettsville... Darlington... Lamar... Quinby...
Florence Darlington technical College main Campus... Dovesville...
Mont Clare... Darlington raceway... Floyd... Mars Bluff... Auburn...
oats... Mechanicsville... Society Hill... Blenheim...
health south rehabilitation hospital...
McLeod regional medical center...
Carolinas hospital system and Carolinas hospital system - Cedar
tower.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.
Quoting 123. CaribBoy:



Hopefully not... :)
I am kinda suspicious.It has the "wave to be" coming off at a very low latitude (9N) and immediately developing into a T.C before being shunted to the north rapidly.Usually when the models start with these weird behaviors it signals a ghost storm.If the GFS is anywhere near correct (which I highly doubt) the storm would have no where to go but west.
Quoting 128. washingtonian115:

I am kinda suspicious.It has the "wave to be" coming off at a very low latitude (9N) and immediately developing into a T.C before being shunted to the north rapidly.Usually when the models start with these weird behaviors it signals a ghost storm.
It might be due to this. Now to see if this MJO will really come this time, it's been playing. Mr. Hefty High ain't letting it go north though.
Thankfully, it will skirt the most densely populated part of St Cloud (pop. ~ 65k), but there are a couple of trailer parks on the eastern outskirts of town... :/




TORNADO WARNING
MNC009-145-112345-
/O.NEW.KMPX.TO.W.0035.160711T2319Z-160711T2345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
619 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL STEARNS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTH CENTRAL BENTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 619 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER PLEASANT LAKE...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ST. CLOUD... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED FUNNEL CLOUD.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
EAST CENTRAL STEARNS AND SOUTH CENTRAL BENTON COUNTIES...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS: PLEASANT LAKE AND LUXEMBURG.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
INTERSTATE 94 IN MINNESOTA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 161 AND 170.
U.S. HIGHWAY 10 IN MINNESOTA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 171 AND 180.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN
A MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4568 9422 4559 9403 4556 9407 4555 9415
4551 9414 4549 9415 4540 9425 4546 9440
TIME...MOT...LOC 2319Z 209DEG 26KT 4547 9430

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

Only July folks. Too soon to call the trend for Aug-Oct IMO. On edge here. I don't like the potential set up for homegrown spin ups.
Quoting 125. TheDawnAwakening:

Tropical Wave nearing 40w and 10n is showing signs of organization. Presence of a low level vorticity maximum. shear is low and SSTs are good.

That is true, but it is going to have to eat and swallow a mouth full of cinnamon powder before it is really favorable for development. In other words survive a wall of dust from the Sahara.
Quoting 133. PancakeState:


That is true, but it is going to have to eat and swallow a mouth full of cinnamon powder before it is really favorable for development. In other words survive a wall of dust from the Sahara.
That's for certain, this is how tropical systems feel when dust gets into them.
Quoting 133. PancakeState:


That is true, but it is going to have to eat and swallow a mouth full of cinnamon powder before it is really favorable for development. In other words survive a wall of dust from the Sahara.


RGB imagery showed a partial circulation developing before a huge convective blowup occurred over the partial center. I think this is going to wall off the dust and dry air.
THE TWO is late for 8pm, it is normally out around 720pm edt
The tropical wave at 10N: 40W is developing convection deep convection at DMIN.
Quoting 115. Accu3535:

It's pretty sad that we can't even get a GFS run with a Storm not unless it's 384 hrs away. Let's go ahead and call it quits for this hurricane season, BRING ON WINTER!!!



Please go buzz some where else And come back in August intel then take a vacation from the blog please we don't need too repet yourself every day.
WE can still get development even without computer support and MJO support, while the conditions might be more hostile, IE more dry air and sinking motion present, but there is always rising motion when there is convergence occurring in the ITCZ. Tropical Wave is being enhanced by the ITCZ, but it is near 10N, which could lead to development of a surface low.
Quoting 140. TheDawnAwakening:

WE can still get development even without computer support and MJO support, while the conditions might be more hostile, IE more dry air and sinking motion present, but there is always rising motion when there is convergence occurring in the ITCZ. Tropical Wave is being enhanced by the ITCZ, but it is near 10N, which could lead to development of a surface low.


Agreed.


Some bloggers on here this have no patience at all.


After what happened in 2005 I think all the blogger got spoiled
Quoting 142. Tazmanian:



Agreed.


Some bloggers on here this have no patience at all.


After what happened in 2005 I think all the blogger got spoiled


Even though that was a very busy season, it was extremely destructive.
Quoting 136. TheDawnAwakening:

THE TWO is late for 8pm, it is normally out around 720pm edt
It is a bit late, but it will be out soon.
It is a guarantee. I like death and taxes, the 3rd biggest guarantee is impatience on the main blog.

This is normally a quiet time of year even in active seasons. Enjoy the quiet time while we have it, because come August, it will be active.
Quoting 144. Climate175:

It is a bit late, but it will be out soon.


I know, maybe they are adding to it
TWO remains the same, no activity expected within the next 5 days.
Quoting 146. TheDawnAwakening:



I know, maybe they are adding to it


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Nope, they probably almost forgot. lol
Quoting 146. TheDawnAwakening:



I know, maybe they are adding to it


No, still no development expected in the next 48 hrs and 5 days.
Quoting 52. RobertWC:

Climate Change May Already Be Shifting Clouds Toward The Poles

The way clouds cover the Earth may be changing because of global warming, according to a study published Monday that used satellite data to track cloud patterns across about two decades, starting in the 1980s.

Clouds in the mid-latitudes shifted toward the poles during that period, as the subtropical dry zones expanded and the highest cloud-tops got higher.

These changes are predicted by most climate models of global warming, even though those models disag"ree on a lot of other things related to clouds, says Joel Norris, a climate scientist at the University of California, San Diego.

"I guess what was surprising is that a lot of times we think of climate change as something that's going to occur in the future," says Norris. "This is happening right now. It's happened during my lifetime — it was a bit startling.


NPR
That is so scary!
Quoting 148. Hurricanes101:



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Nope, they probably almost forgot. lol
I mean the only thing they had to change is the time XD.
Quoting 58. RobertWC:

Fossil Fuel Industry Risks Losing $33 Trillion to Climate Change

Link
Thats terrible. All those people out of work and drawing unemployment.
Quoting 150. Kenfa03:

That is so scary!
scarier and scarier faster and faster
Quoting 128. washingtonian115:

I am kinda suspicious.It has the "wave to be" coming off at a very low latitude (9N) and immediately developing into a T.C before being shunted to the north rapidly.Usually when the models start with these weird behaviors it signals a ghost storm.If the GFS is anywhere near correct (which I highly doubt) the storm would have no where to go but west.


Looking at the model run, I can see what the GFS is doing. There is a small weakness near the African coast and if it can be believed that the system will strengthen early, it would pull WNW-NW, but then after it passes the Cape Verdes, it does bend back to the west.

Long way out though.
Quoting 152. Kenfa03:

Thats terrible. All those people out of work and drawing unemployment.
solar panel farms on a mass scale give em something too do
Quoting 113. beell:



C'mon, KEEP. It was "wrong-way-Lenny"




Lenny, Lenny, he's our guy. He got the ticket Homer couldn't buy!
wave at 10N 41west looks good seems to have a small area of low pressure with it
Quoting 155. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

solar panel farms on a mass scale give em something too do
Thats good to know. Will there be training involved or will they just move from coal mines to solar farms?
Quoting 156. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Thats amazing. I wonder how many are employed once construction is over.
It's just a stretch...but could this be something to watch???

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the basin anchored by a 1020 mb
high centered near 28N84W. Gentle breeze to moderate
anticyclonic flow is noted on scatterometer imagery going around
the high. In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered
over the NE Gulf near 29N87W. Scattered moderate convection is
mostly inland over the north Gulf States from Louisiana to
Florida N of 30N. Isolated moderate convection is inland over
the Florida Peninsula, and W Cuba. Isolated moderate convection
is also over the Bay of Campeche S of 23N. Expect over the next
24 hours for more convection to advect to the Bay of Campeche
and the central Gulf.
Quoting 159. Kenfa03:

Thats good to know. Will there be training involved or will they just move from coal mines to solar farms?
always retraining as one job becomes obsolete and a new field becomes available cook today retrain for a chef tomorrow
SSTs have been plummeting in the tropical East Pacific over the last couple of days, could an early La Nina development pull the plug on the active EPAC season?

If, as many predict, the PDO remains positive even while La Nina is in progress, what kind of effect will that have on both the EPAC and Atlantic hurricane seasons?
Not a bad looking storm.

Quoting 161. Kenfa03:

Thats amazing. I wonder how many are employed once construction is over.

lots
need replacements after
hail flood lightening wind dust earthquake sinkholes or other damage as it occurs
need switch operators battery bank maintainer gosh darn it there will even be the Windex applicator position
just need to know how to operate the squeegee

lol
Quoting 161. Kenfa03:

Thats amazing. I wonder how many are employed once construction is over.

How many are needed to build parts that need to be replaced, inspect them, build more etc.
Edit: see below comment for more
Quoting 117. washingtonian115:

The GFS still shows a dead Atlantic and a active east pacific....Shades of 2014 anyone?
Very dead July usually means active August and September .... 2007, iirc, started early, had a completely dead July, and ended with 8 systems in September, 17 named storms, including Dean, and a December storm ....

IOW, a cyclone-less ATL in July is no predictor that the season will be "dead" ....
Quoting 168. BahaHurican:

Very dead July usually means active August and September .... 2007, iirc, started early, had a completely dead July, and ended with 8 systems in September, 17 named storms, including Dean, a December storm ....

IOW, a cyclone-less ATL in July is no predictor that the season will be "dead" ....
if its still dead by November then it may be safe to give up on season till then anything goes
Quoting 169. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

if its still dead by November then it may be safe to give up on season till then anything goes


2012 was active in June, then went dead till August.
Hello guys, I'm back early. Looks like long range gfs model trends giving us a little activity, we shall see.
Quoting 124. LostTomorrows:

Yeesh, I knew the seesaw would tip the other way but I didn't expect the Atlantic to completely fly off. What a massive swing in activity. The MJO really changed conditions that much? Clearly it can't in the Atlantic, or does it just not reach the Atlantic? I am unfamiliar with the MJO and just how much it can effect a basin's activity. I also thought the MJO was a relatively fast-moving phenomenon, it seems to have been stuck in the same place for a while.
Again, for the newer users out there .... this kind of hiatus in activity, or general dearth of activity, is not unusual for July! Someone needs to show the chart again, just to remind bloggers that the average date of the first hurricane in this basin is somewhere around August 10!
Well, looks like season is a bust, Oh well guess there is always next year/season. Looking so forward to what little winter we will have coming down the road this heat is ridiculous!!!
Quoting 173. weatherxtreme:

Well, looks like season is a bust, Oh well guess there is always next year/season. Looking so forward to what little winter we will have coming down the road this heat is ridiculous!!!
July 11
l also encourage the more impatient to pay attention to sat imagery over the NIndian Ocean and over Central Africa .... if you are serious about tracking, you'll quickly understand that this is where our AEWs originate. For example, if one examines the African satimage Gothar published earl,ier one will notice a rather large feature over the continent which should move westward to the Atlantic coastal area in about a week. After that, around the 20th or so, we should start to see a bit of an uptick in cyclogenesis potential - even more so if, as is currently being forecast, we see the MJO upward phase move into our basin.
Keep in mind that whether these features become cyclones or not, they generally "prime the pump" by removing / reducing the volume of SAL dust and dryness over the ATL MDR. By August 1, conditions are generally more conducive for storms to form.

But this requires a certain patience on the part of OBSERVANT participants.
176. elioe
You know the Atlantic is quiet, when, from all the GFS ensemble members, this following pic shows the most Atlantic activity:

the far far east getting that nice seasonal feathered look too it

More boring E-Pac hurricanes.Each day less and less people here cares about this.
Some examples of dead (or pathetic ) Julys where hurricane seasons eventually went on to be quite active:
1995: 3 weak storms
1998: season's 1st storm waited till July 28
1999: nothing in July
2004: 1st storm formed on July 31
2010: only one weak storm on July 22
2011: 3 weak storms including Dorian that "poofed" when it hit Texas
2012: nothing in July
Quoting 178. hurricanefishfla:

More boring E-Pac hurricanes.Each day less and less people here cares about this.


You do realize that in July in the Atlantic basin there is an average of one storm every other year? What are you expecting? This is completely normal.
Quoting 173. weatherxtreme:

Well, looks like season is a bust, Oh well guess there is always next year/season. Looking so forward to what little winter we will have coming down the road this heat is ridiculous!!!


See post #180. Any questions?
Quoting 178. hurricanefishfla:

More boring E-Pac hurricanes.Each day less and less people here cares about this.



You do not speak for everyone. Some on here like my self loves tracking E pac storms. So please keep commits like that too your self has you don't speak for everyone
A date that will live in... oh never mind.


Quoting 174. Gearsts:

July 11
Quoting 180. Bucsboltsfan:



You do realize that in July in the Atlantic basin there is an average of one storm every other year? What are you expecting? This is completely normal.


What's the point any more it seems like they don't have any patience so I gave up sooner or later they well learn
everyone getting testy lets do storm stories or name tat cane or somem
Quoting 179. lobdelse81:

Some examples of dead (or pathetic ) Julys where hurricane seasons eventually went on to be quite active:
1995: 3 weak storms
1998: season's 1st storm waited till July 28
1999: nothing in July
2004: 1st storm formed on July 31
2010: only one weak storm on July 22
2011: 3 weak storms including Dorian that "poofed" when it hit Texas
2012: nothing in July


What about 2013 to 2015? I like your list don't stop there please add 2013 too 2015
Quoting 184. Tazmanian:



What's the point any more it seems like they don't have any patience so I gave up sooner or later they well learn


Probably right....
189. beell

Today's 18Z Dust Imagery-well into the Caribbean, approaching the Florida Straits, and on both sides of the ITCZ.
(click for larger image)
Is it normal for people to complain about a dead hurricane season like this every year on this blog? From my POV this season has started kinda above average when comparing to previous season.
Sorry if this has been posted. Kind of goes along with the comments. Only, isnt it more odd to zero storms in August?
I guess its the same as always. The season goes until November. And nobody knows how it will all end up until then. Stay prepared.

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 12h12 hours ago
In 1961, 0 named storms formed in August. September had a whopping 4 major hurricanes & record-setting monthly ACE
Quoting 190. PancakeState:

Is it normal for people to complain about a dead hurricane season like this every year on this blog? From my POV this season has started kinda above average when comparing to previous season.
Totally. They're the most predictable part of the season .... lol
Link

The latest surface analysis for the Atlantic basin, shows a 1012mb low developed near 10N: 40W along that wave with convection developing over the center of circulation according to the latest satellite imagery.
Anybody else remember that July when Ike would come in the blog every morning and show the GFS short and long range, each showing no activity? He'd just drive the over-eager beavers round the bend....
Quoting 193. TheDawnAwakening:

Link

The latest surface analysis for the Atlantic basin, shows a 1012mb low developed near 10N: 40W along that wave with convection developing over the center of circulation according to the latest satellite imagery.


Convection is becoming more symmetrical over the low pressure center. ASCAT shows a partial circulation at the surface it is open on the southeast side.
Quoting 187. Gearsts:




Is the PDO still predicted to be positive for the rest of the system? I'm very curious as to the effects of a positive PDO contrasting with La Nina on the Atlantic season. There doesn't seem to be a huge amount of precedent for this. Anyone have any insights?
Quoting 194. BahaHurican:

Anybody else remember that July when Ike would come in the blog every morning and show the GFS short and long range, each showing no activity? He'd just drive the over-eager beavers round the bend....


I think our first July system is developing along that wave axis, a 1012mb low is present, and a partial circulation developing at the surface underneath the convection that is strengthening. Also anticyclonic upper level outflow developing over the system
Time for an insect report.
Ants are busy building ant houses and eating old marshmallows in Houston tonight. They appear to be unconcerned.
Grasshoppers are looking bored. When asked for comment, they ignored the questioner and kept munching grass.
There have been no whooly caterpillar sightings this year.
We have a PancakeState?

POOF AT 396.
I will believe the GFS MJO/storm forecast when the first one is rolling in the MDR. Until then, it's all posturing and conjecture.
Quoting 187. Gearsts:




Looking good for MDR activity right?
CfS saying above normal shear in Atlantic main development area for August,September and October.Looks like a long boring rest of summer maybe next year we will get back to normal.
Quoting 203. CaribBoy:



Looking good for MDR activity right?
No shear way above normal and very dry.
206. MahFL
Quoting 125. TheDawnAwakening:

Tropical Wave nearing 40w and 10n is showing signs of organization. Presence of a low level vorticity maximum. shear is low and SSTs are good.


40 to 50 seems pretty good shear wise. Dry air though...


Quoting 205. help4u:

No shear way above normal and very dry.



CFS is probably wrong...
208. beell
Quoting 200. aquak9:

We have a PancakeState?


Mississippi-Post Katrina.



Quoting 205. help4u:

No shear way above normal and very dry.

Quoting 204. help4u:

CfS saying above normal shear in Atlantic main development area for August,September and October.Looks like a long boring rest of summer maybe next year we will get back to normal.

It's only July 11. This season is NOT DEAD. On average one July storm forms at most. There is still 20 days in this month and I would not be surprised if we get an MDR spin-up in the second half of this month. While shear is expected to be above normal in the MDR, it is expected to be below normal in the Caribbean and Gulf. 1998, 2007, 2010, and 2012 all had very minimal July activity and turned out to be much above normal seasons.

We are currently in a sinking MJO phase that can't just last forever. At some point the rising phase will come, probably in August - just wait until next month and we could have the first Atlantic major of the year.
210. beell
Most (not all) of my experience with major hurricanes has been experienced on the internet. I had a great time! Bring it on!


Gilbert was one of the largest tropical cyclones ever observed in the Atlantic basin. At one point, tropical storm force winds measured 800 km (500 mi) in diameter. Even before becoming a tropical depression, the storms circulation extended almost to the equator from the storm’s center when the storm was still only midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles.

Hurricane Gilbert caused much destruction and loss of life in all regions that it impacted. Coastal storm surge flooding produced tides up to 2.7 m (8.9 ft) above normal on the northeast coast of Jamaica. Inland flash flooding was the result of over 27.6 inches of rainfall from 10-14 September. The hurricane was so large that significant amounts of rain fell as far away as Venezuela and Costa Rica as Gilbert made landfall across Jamaica. In Jamaica, 40% of total damages were to agriculture. 95% of all hospitals suffered damage with only 2 of 25 escaping with minimal damage while 2 were completely destroyed and 11 others suffered severe damage. All over the island, 50% of the domestic water supply (storage and distribution facilities) was destroyed.
Both "Farmers Almanacs" predict hurricane threats for the Atlantic coastline mid August.

Link
Link
Quoting 204. help4u:

CfS saying above normal shear in Atlantic main development area for August,September and October.Looks like a long boring rest of summer maybe next year we will get back to normal.


214. beell
It does seem to be such a waste of several good hurricanes spinning harmlessly out to sea in the EPAC.
Quoting 122. CaribBoy:



And of course it struck my area :)
Actually the part where it states that Lenny was the most powerful November Atlantic hurricane on record is incorrect. The 1932 Cuba Hurricane was much stronger...It had sustained winds of 175 mph, and a pressure of 915 MB,s or 27.02 inches.....Link
I think Earl is the system in the central tropical Atlantic Ocean right now at around 42-44W and 10N.
Quoting 216. TheDawnAwakening:

I think Earl is the system in the central tropical Atlantic Ocean right now at around 42-44W and 10N.
Do you see any model support. Nope. Ok case closed. ;)
218. IDTH
Quoting 173. weatherxtreme:

Well, looks like season is a bust, Oh well guess there is always next year/season. Looking so forward to what little winter we will have coming down the road this heat is ridiculous!!!

Quoting 204. help4u:

CfS saying above normal shear in Atlantic main development area for August,September and October.Looks like a long boring rest of summer maybe next year we will get back to normal.

Sigh..... Just stop posting this stuff in July or you're all going to look real silly in the coming months.
Quoting 218. IDTH:



Sigh..... Just stop posting this stuff in July or you're all going to look real silly in the coming months.

Same thing every year. You thought they might have learned something huh?
Tropical Wave and low pressure center on satellite imagery around 44w and 10n shows signs of rotation in imagery. Convective burst is occurring and IR satellite imagery suggests this is starting to rotate, a sign of increasing vorticity present in the lower levels. Earl could be forming.
Celia is one of the more unique storms I've tracked. What a structure.

Quoting 217. HurricaneAndre:

Do you see any model support. Nope. Ok case closed. ;)


It doesn't care about model support, just because the models don't show it developing doesn't mean it can't develop. When will you people learn, that Mother Nature doesn't care about how advanced our technology is, it will never catch up with her.
Quoting 222. TheDawnAwakening:



It doesn't care about model support, just because the models don't show it developing doesn't mean it can't develop. When will you people learn, that Mother Nature doesn't care about how advanced our technology is, it will never catch up with her.
Well tell that to the NHC.
Quoting 218. IDTH:



Sigh..... Just stop posting this stuff in July or you're all going to look real silly in the coming months.
They will poof as quickly as any ghost storm once the main part of the season gets going....

For those that think the season is inactive. We already have 4 in the Atlantic.
From a link that Baha posted earlier Tropical Cyclone Climatology
Quoting 197. TheDawnAwakening:



I think our first July system is developing along that wave axis, a 1012mb low is present, and a partial circulation developing at the surface underneath the convection that is strengthening. Also anticyclonic upper level outflow developing over the system
TAFB is forecasting the low to dissipate by tomorrow, while the Twave continues w towards the Windwards as the week progresses. I'm assuming they are looking at current conditions along with the lack of model support.

Meanwhile the next AEW getting ready to exit the African coast already has an associated low... that one might have a better chance. I also note that the next two Twaves expected to become TCs in the EPAC are near or over Central America already... I won't completely rule out the possibility of this current Twave making something of itself, but it seems more likely that we won't see any significant development before next week at the earliest.

Quoting 225. PedleyCA:


For those that think the season is inactive. We already have 4 in the Atlantic.
From a link that Baha posted earlier Tropical Cyclone Climatology
Thanks, Ped ... didn't think of screenshotting it...
Quoting 92. tallowAndPines:

I wonder if those Eastern Pacific hurricanes might send some moisture towards California. I'm sure they could use the rain.

The (original) blob of hot ocean appears to be reforming of the west coast of North America. If that is the case then the associated blocking high will prevent any significant precipitation in California until sometime in the fall.
Quoting 214. beell:

It does seem to be such a waste of several good hurricanes spinning harmlessly out to sea in the EPAC.

Maybe if we show enough highlight reels of "LENNY, 1999" the E Pac storms will learn to go backwards and smack Baja and San Diego and people can have lots of fun like the Chinese woman in Doc M's blog.

That is a really sad picture. Tattoo it on your brains, wishcasters.

(quote added)
@ Pankcakestate - yes this happens every year. Watching people offer "crow" for others to eat later on in September based on their comments now is always an especially hilarious time of the season.

I used to say that the season isn't over until Nov 30. Then after 2005, it isn't dead until New Years. After this year I'm not sure what to say... This problem wouldn't happen in a dead year.

In other not really news, Seattle is officially the least severe weather city in the US.

Again, one of the few things I miss the most from living outside of Cascadia is hearing thunder.

Quoting 230. Seattleite:

@ Pankcakestate - yes this happens every year. Watching people offer "crow" for others to eat later on in September based on their comments now is always an especially hilarious time of the season.

I used to say that the season isn't over until Nov 30. Then after 2005, it isn't dead until New Years. After this year I'm not sure what to say... This problem wouldn't happen in a dead year.

In other not really news, Seattle is officially the least severe weather city in the US.

Again, one of the few things I miss the most from living outside of Cascadia is hearing thunder.



The weather isn't very severe here. What is this thunder you speak of?
¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Quoting 232. TropicalAnalystwx13:

¯\_(ツ)_/¯


Well this is fun I guess.
Although it's racing against the clock, Celia is taking advantage of what little time it has left tonight. The fragments of yesterday's core, which was basically eroded by dry air, have dissipated as the large 60-70 mile wide eye clears out. Convection is growing deeper. I would think we'll see a boost to 90kt at 9z.


Celia

Soon to be the D storm in the EPAC...

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 120849
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016
300 AM MDT TUE JUL 12 2016

Satellite images indicate little overall change to the depression
during the past several hours. Convection has been flaring up and
down without any apparent increase in organization. A pair of
ASCAT passes showed maximum winds of 25 to 30 kt, so the initial
wind speed will stay 30 kt.

The initial motion has turned west-northwestward, and recently the
depression may even be moving due westward. A westward or west-
southwestward course is expected for the next 2-3 days due to a
building ridge over the eastern Pacific. Thereafter the system
should resume a track toward the west or west-northwest, with some
differences noted in the strength of the ridge at long range.
Overall, the model consensus has generally shifted southward by
about 30 n mi at most time intervals, and the official forecast will
follow that trend.

The intensity forecast is tricky since it is becoming more related
to the track forecast. While the overall environment looks conducive
for strengthening for a few days, the southward shift in the
cyclone's predicted path increases the chances that the system
encounters the cool wake of Blas and Celia. For now it is expected
to stay just to the north, so only a slight reduction is made to the
previous official forecast. The latest forecast is similar to the
intensity consensus for the first couple days, and remains above
that at longer range, mostly out of respect for a rather low-shear
environment forecast by the global models by late week. It is
worth noting, and probably should be no surprise, that the intensity
guidance has a rather wide range for this forecast, with the
GFS-based COAMPS-TC model showing no significant strengthening and
the HWRF model making the cyclone a hurricane in 36 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 15.8N 107.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 15.9N 108.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 15.7N 110.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 15.5N 113.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 15.5N 115.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 15.9N 119.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 16.6N 123.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 17.5N 127.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake
epac..why.bother?
Is this what everyone wants? 6z GFS shows the CV train.
GFS now develops the wave that is expected to come off West Africa on Friday at around 50W, then eventually taking it into the Caribbean.
GFS still also has that other long range Cape Verde wave near the end of the month.
Earl is that you? lol Read Climate's post for more detail.

Quoting 237. islander101010:

epac..why.bother?
Because I am interested in TCs, not just ATL TCs...
Because the ATL is deathly dull this morning ...
Quoting 239. Climate175:

GFS now develops the wave that is expected to come off West Africa on Friday at around 50W, then eventually taking it into the Caribbean.
That's more like it. 21st to 24th.... wouldn't be surprised if this pans out.
Quoting 244. BahaHurican:

That's more like it. 21st to 24th.... wouldn't be surprised if this pans out.
I guess the GFS is picking up on the MJO and the other models show lowering pressures in the MDR.The GFS fantasy caribbean storm may not come true but I will say this.....anything that makes it into the caribbean under very light shear conditions will have to be watched as the bath water extends really deep down and I don't like the way that high is positioned.It refuses to budge at all and has also been responsible for the heat (just like 2007) that we've been experiencing in the mid atlantic and South east.
Just for fun, the full resolution version of the 6z GFS storm. Whether this has merit or not, it's a sign we're starting to approach the peak months.

Quoting 245. washingtonian115:

I guess the GFS is picking up on the MJO and the other models show lowering pressures in the MDR.The GFS fantasy caribbean storm may not come true but I will say this.....anything that makes it into the caribbean under very light shear conditions will have to be watched as the bath water extends really deep down and I don't like the way that high is positioned.It refuses to budge at all and has also been responsible for the heat (just like 2007) that we've been experiencing in the mid atlantic and South east.
I would like to see like more model runs.
Quoting 244. BahaHurican:

That's more like it. 21st to 24th.... wouldn't be surprised if this pans out.
The EPAC also seems to die down a bit during that timeframe, giving the Atlantic it's turn.
Good Morning; the Conus forecast for today and current status of the global tropics:





250. Tcwx2
I had been looking for this, thanks for posting!
Quoting 225. PedleyCA:


For those that think the season is inactive. We already have 4 in the Atlantic.
From a link that Baha posted earlier Tropical Cyclone Climatology
And off to the East in Africa:



Quoting 251. weathermanwannabe:

And off the East in Africa:




That wave in the middle of Nigeria, Niger, and Chad is the one the GFS just started to pick up on.
Many of the lows folks are posting may well be ghost storms on some of those model runs (typical in this time period and often with the GFS) but it also reflects the continued drop in shear across the Central Atlantic and Gulf/Florida area; however, the Caribbean has not dropped down yet:



I agree as some run to run agreement would be nice from the GFS.However I would like to point out that the GFS did show this trying to develop (the wave that comes off Friday) into a storm in the MDR (I had posted the run last Thursday) as something to look out for.But because the model was not properly picking up on the MJO (and probably still isn't) it killed the wave.

348. washingtonian115
10:58 AM EDT on July 07, 2016
6 +
Last post for a few hours but the GFS is at least attempting to develop a wave in the long range.It comes off of Africa as a healthy one


Point is August will be the month IMO that will be the most active. Don't know how much you guys buy the CFS but it shows a favorable MDR for august, and unfavorable for september(still shows favorable carribean in september). Either way, late July is the best time to get the season going.
As I mentioned yesterday, we are seeing very warm SST's in the vicinity of the Bahamas again this year and the Gulf is also very warm; any long-track Cape Verde storm that can get into those waters, either through the Yucatan Channel or North of PR into the Bahamas, will have plenty of room to intensify with those temps and low shear conditions. Hoping for the best always, and plenty of trofs to steer one away from the US, but this could be the year that we see a major impact the US IMHO based on current conditions (that will only get better once we get to late-August/early September):




It also looks like it has picked up some ensemble support, compare 00z to 06z, and look at new blotch of yellow near 50W.
259. JRRP7
so far TD 5 E is haveing no issue




time for a upgrade

12/1200 UTC 15.9N 108.2W T3.0/3.0 05E -- East Pacific
Nothing going on down here still dry not sure what you are referring to but the weather channel images of hurricanes and roofs coming off just prior to the tropical update are old and long gone
Quoting 246. MAweatherboy1:

Just for fun, the full resolution version of the 6z GFS storm. Whether this has merit or not, it's a sign we're starting to approach the peak months.


Big time heat in western Texas. Yesterday saw the hottest temperature on record in Amarillo for the entire month of July at 108F, breaking the old monthly record by 2 degrees. Also tied for the third hottest reading on any day. The only hotter days were 111F on 6/26/2011 and 109F on 6/24/2011. Tomorrow could be even hotter there. Records date all the way back to 1892.
Quoting 262. ClimateChange:

Big time heat in western Texas. Yesterday saw the hottest temperature on record in Amarillo for the entire month of July at 108F, breaking the old monthly record by 2 degrees. Also tied for the third hottest reading on any day. The only hotter days were 111F on 6/26/2011 and 109F on 6/24/2011. Tomorrow could be even hotter there. Records date all the way back to 1892.


Pretty warm in Southeast Texas as well:

Link

"Today will likely be July’s ninth morning of 80-degree or warmer morning lows. According to Matt Lanza, that’s now third most for any July on record in Houston, behind only 2009 (12), and 1963 (10). What’s more, the maximum number of 80-degree mornings in any month in the city’s history is 14, recorded back in August, 1964. It now seems probable we will blow through that record as it is only July 12th."

From a subsequently linked blog referencing the latest IPCC report:

Link

"In Chapter 2 of the latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the authors write, “Confidence of accelerated increases in minimum temperature extremes compared to maximum temperature extremes is high due to the more consistent patterns of warming in minimum temperature extremes globally.”"

It's almost like there is something to this whole "Climate Change" thing....
Adrian Linares @Adriansweather 6m
GFS developing multiple tc's signaling favorable conditions late July into August across tropical Atlantic.
Quoting 232. TropicalAnalystwx13:

¯\_(ツ)_/¯



YAWN, what a booooooooring hurricane season! Thank god for Pokeman Go (sarchasm mode)
Levi Cowan @TropicalTidbits 9m
With this GEFS Day 10-15 pattern and ECMWF bringing MJO through phase 2-3, may see Atlantic wake up by end of July.
GFS and Euro are beginning to light up the Atlantic Basin with Tropical activity. Looking active to end out July guys. This pattern has storms being aimed @ FL and the Gulf.

Quoting 261. 19N81W:

Nothing going on down here still dry not sure what you are referring to but the weather channel images of hurricanes and roofs coming off just prior to the tropical update are old and long gone

We had .98" of rain late night/early morning in East End with winds of 20 mph. Kind of gloomy still but dry now.
Quoting 256. weathermanwannabe:

As I mentioned yesterday, we are seeing very warm SST's in the vicinity of the Bahamas again this year and the Gulf is also very warm; any long-track Cape Verde storm that can get into those waters, either through the Yucatan Channel or North of PR into the Bahamas, will have plenty of room to intensify with those temps and low shear conditions. Hoping for the best always, and plenty of trofs to steer one away from the US, but this could be the year that we see a major impact the US IMHO based on current conditions (that will only get better once we get to late-August/early September):







TCHP is off the charts. Anything tracking through W. Caribbean has potential to be extremely powerful.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/ NEW/2016193at.jpg
271. IDTH
Quoting 242. washingtonian115:

Earl is that you? lol Read Climate's post for more detail.



Far out in time but signaling that late July could heat up. Hope you all enjoyed the lull because things are going to start picking up.
Believe it when I see it. Otherwise expect lame dry lazy dogs of summer out there ladies and gentlemen
Levi Cowan @TropicalTidibits 13m
JMA Week 2 global circulation is rather pro-Atlantic. First chance to see if this hurricane season is for real.
The cfvs2 is also picking up on two storms.One threatening the gulf and then the east coast.If the models are anywhere near correct expect the Atlantic to finally shift gears as well as this blog......Remember...if it wasn't for the shear and dry air Danny and Erika could have been real threats to the U.S.This year we don't have the wall of shear to protect us.
Quoting 231. PedleyCA:


The weather isn't very severe here. What is this thunder you speak of?


It's so rare that when I bring in the thunder tube for children at work (>5 yrs) I have to explain that a thunderstorm is like a big bad rain storm when the sky makes bright flashes followed by loud booming noises. Then when I play the thunder tube, it never fails, a four or five year old exclaims some form of how thunder can't be real because they've never heard it...

On the flip side, one time during a toddler class a few years back there was one bright flash followed very shortly by a thunder clap. It made every single child cry and run around the room. Took over five minutes to calm everyone down, and that was while playing soothing finger picking on the guitar...

Another funny story involves the first time the sun appeared in June during a class of 18 month olds. They stopped doing music with me, and walked to the window. One of the oldest, nearly age two, asked "What dat?" while pointing at the sun. I laughed so hard I put out a rib! (See EDS for the rib thing)
Quoting 263. goavs4:


It's almost like there is something to this whole "Climate Change" thing....



Yeah, imagine that. Coming on the heels of the hottest June on record for the CONUS. July shaping up to be another scorcher. Could this be the summer we finally dethrone 1936? 2006 and 2012 were close, but no cigar. Even the dust bowl conditions of the 30s can't challenge our modern, globally-warmed atmosphere.

Quoting 272. RitaEvac:

Believe it when I see it. Otherwise expect lame dry lazy dogs of summer out there ladies and gentlemen


I dont want to see it ...not that I want these dry lazy dog days either.
I will take some afternoon thunderstorms again though
The GFS actually showed 3 storms, one that goes into the Caribbean and Gulf, one going towards the Bahamas, and then the other Cape Verde Wave.
Quoting 264. nrtiwlnvragn:





In early May 2016, an algae bloom grew to cover 85 square kilometers (33 square miles) of Florida’s Lake Okeechobee. The conditions that gave rise to the bloom have persisted into July, and have been blamed for affecting water quality downstream all the way to the Atlantic Ocean.


A declaration for the Everglades and clean, fresh water is being circulated online by supporters of bullsugar.org, a group of citizen activists, fishermen, taxpayers and residents unaffiliated with Everglades environmental groups.




Sugar’s decades-long hold over Everglades came with a price

The industry spent more than $57 million over 22 years to influence Florida campaigns

Records show Big Sugar was consistently one of the largest contributors to both Republicans, Democrats

Industry’s clout helped it to transfer clean-up costs and postpone deadlines


Read more here: Link


” An analysis of satellite data between 1983 and 2009 reveals that cloud tops are reaching higher into the atmosphere and that cloudy storm tracks are shifting toward Earth’s poles, “

Two things that these findings explain,
#1 More, and larger hail storms.
#2 More flooding in Canada , Russia, & Northern Europe
Hi guys, I like when you bring good news! The Atlantic could wake up later this month yeah :)
Quoting 267. Climate175:

Levi Cowan @TropicalTidbits 9m
With this GEFS Day 10-15 pattern and ECMWF bringing MJO through phase 2-3, may see Atlantic wake up by end of July.

yep and the updated MJO forecast towards the end of the month has increased the value of the MJO coming across for the Atlantic

Quoting 281. CaribBoy:

Hi guys, I like when you bring good news! The Atlantic could wake up later this month yeah :)
It's not like we haven't been saying that for the last 10 days ....
:-)

No wonder waters in this area are simmering... already 90 here and it's not even noon as yet....
Quoting 283. bigwes6844:


yep and the updated MJO forecast towards the end of the month has increased the value of the MJO coming across for the Atlantic


The EPAC and Atlantic MJO positions have basically switched places.


Hayden Pass Fire, Colorado

Aqua/MODIS
2016/193
07/11/2016
20:05 UTC


Over 40 years ago, I used to live just Northwest of this fire in Salida, Colorado. There are seven, 14,000 ft. mountains around the town . Besides the fire's smoke plume, one other thing jumps out , there is zero snow pack on any of the mountains in this shot.

The fire is burning at the Northern end of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, one can see the Great Sand Dunes to the South, and Mount Blanca below it. Another huge 14,000 footer. To see zero snow on any of these peaks at this time of year is very troubling, very troubling.
Quoting 285. Climate175:

The EPAC and Atlantic MJO positions have basically switched places.
Note also the upward motion over Africa which is enhancing the AEW traffic....
Quoting 281. CaribBoy:

Hi guys, I like when you bring good news! The Atlantic could wake up later this month yeah :)


You might be sitting in a cat 4 eye wall trying to survive, no electricity and no internet for a month or so on this blog, while the rest of us blog away talking about how active and great news it is to see storms finally rolling thru the Atlantic and Carribbean. ;)
Quoting 190. PancakeState:

Is it normal for people to complain about a dead hurricane season like this every year on this blog? From my POV this season has started kinda above average when comparing to previous season.


The same thinking leads people to declare the winter a total snow bust sometime around the middle of December most years.
Crazy, just crazy -


Fires in Central Africa


SNPP/VIIRS
2016/193
07/11/2016
11:45 UTC
Quoting 285. Climate175:

The EPAC and Atlantic MJO positions have basically switched places.
Big question becomes does the MJO stick around for awhile to create more hostility to continue to produce more storms in August or does the MJO dissipates in the Heart of the season. That is gonna be very interesting for the most to see in about a month. MJO stays around boy we could be in for a serious rollercoaster next month of storms. Enjoy the quiet y'all because the Atlantic is gonna wake up big time in a few days.
Quoting 289. RitaEvac:



You might be sitting in a cat 4 eye wall trying to survive, no electricity and no internet for a month or so on this blog, while the rest of us blog away talking about how active and great news it is to see storms finally rolling thru the Atlantic and Carribbean. ;)
I always tell people all the time, Be Careful What You Wish For!
As noted in a post below, the big question this season (don't have a clue) is whether we will actually see tropical storms, forming from Cape Verde waves in the Central Atlantic, struggle as tropical storms as they have in recent seasons due to dry stable air and/or trade wind issues, or be able to enter into the Caribbean region as a full fledged hurricane. Too early to to know what late July and August will bring on these two fronts but we might see some of them struggle over the cooler waters in the Central Atlantic closer to the Cape Verde until they reach more favorable SSTs closer to/in the Caribbean. There current streering pattern around the A-B high into the Caribbean for the tropical waves is already settling in place however and the Atlantic waters closer to the Antilles are also starting to warm nicely:

Don't have a clue as to what is causing that anomalous cold pool right on the Coast of Africa adjacent to the Cape Verde Islands...........................


[JavaScript Image Player]

%uFFFD%uFFFD
Quoting 289. RitaEvac:



You might be sitting in a cat 4 eye wall trying to survive, no electricity and no internet for a month or so on this blog, while the rest of us blog away talking about how active and great news it is to see storms finally rolling thru the Atlantic and Carribbean. ;)
But then the storm brought bad news, not the blog .... :o)

I think Carib is hoping for a little less than that, adventure-wise ....

The storms will come.


Try a fresca and a nice walk.

Its a beautiful day.....don't let it get away'
Quoting 271. IDTH:


Far out in time but signaling that late July could heat up. Hope you all enjoyed the lull because things are going to start picking up.
Ghost storms most likely, but ditto on it sniffing out an increase in activity as August approaches. The last Euro is even showing an AOI off Africa at 240.

Quoting 292. bigwes6844:

Big question becomes does the MJO stick around for awhile to create more hostility to continue to produce more storms in August or does the MJO dissipates in the Heart of the season. That is gonna be very interesting for the most to see in about a month. MJO stays around boy we could be in for a serious rollercoaster next month of storms. Enjoy the quiet y'all because the Atlantic is gonna wake up big time in a few days.
Even without MJO August and September conditions are generally conducive enough to give us a few storms. What I'm looking at is the way we're getting these "bursts" of storms - three in 10 days in the ATL at the beginning of June, then what looks like A - E named storms in the EPac in 14 - 16 days. Whenever we do see some action, I have a feeling it's going to be fast and furious ....
Quoting 294. weathermanwannabe:

As noted in a post below, the big question this season (don't have a clue) is whether we will actually see tropical storms, forming from Cape Verde waves in the Central Atlantic, struggle as tropical storms as they have in recent seasons due to dry stable air and/or trade wind issues, or be able to enter into the Caribbean region as a full fledged hurricane.  Too early to to know what late July and August will bring on these two fronts but we might see some of them struggle over the cooler waters in the Central Atlantic closer to the Cape Verde until they reach more favorable SSTs closer to/in the Caribbean.  There current streering pattern around the A-B high into the Caribbean for the tropical waves is already settling in place however and the Atlantic waters closer to the Antilles are also starting to warm nicely:


I think the high setup lends itself to cyclogenesis closer to 50W than 30W .... if only because highs this broad and solid tend to push systems along at such high speeds that they have difficulty consolidating their centres and building convection. We've been saved in recent seasons by storms' inability to get it together and hold it together before crossing the Lesser Antilles ... if we get even a decent cat 1 past 60W, all bets are off; waters in the western ATL and CAR are warm enough to support several powerful systems with slightly different tracks.

Whether long-track or homegrown, though, I think we are in for a bit of a show ...
Quoting 296. Patrap:

The storms will come.


Try a fresca and a nice walk.

Its a beautiful day.....don't let it get away'
I'm out. Enjoy the day.
Quoting 290. georgevandenberghe:



The same thinking leads people to declare the winter a total snow bust sometime around the middle of December most years.


Well I live in the Tampa area and I declare the winter a total snow bust on Halloween.
Fires burning on the Arctic plain in Russia , right next to the ocean -



Terra/MODIS
2016/194
07/12/2016
07:25 UTC
There will be a delay to the 12z GFS.
Quoting 301. RobertWC:

Fires burning on the Arctic plain in Russia , right next to the ocean -

Terra/MODIS
2016/194
07/12/2016
07:25 UTC


8-O ... What a coincidence : Link
Quoting 302. Patrap:

Predicting the threat of hurricane storm surges
yeah i just read that earlier Pat on nola. Thats gonna be something serious if we do see a big one come this way.
307. IDTH
We could also seal the deal soon on the upcoming La Nina as another trade wind surge is expected to arrive in the pacific in the coming weeks.






Quoting 305. 999Ai2016:


8-O ... What a coincidence : Link


BINGO !


Do you remember Alicia?
310. IDTH
I'm sure many of you on this blog recall Hurricane Charley and how it rapidly strengthened from a Cat 2 all the way to a Cat 4 right before landfall. Well along the western coast of Florida, those kind of waters definitely existent in terms of just how warm they are.

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 289. RitaEvac:


You might be sitting in a cat 4 eye wall trying to survive, no electricity and no internet for a month or so on this blog, while the rest of us blog away talking about how active and great news it is to see storms finally rolling thru the Atlantic and Carribbean. ;)


Been there and it's not fun!
Quoting 289. RitaEvac:



You might be sitting in a cat 4 eye wall trying to survive, no electricity and no internet for a month or so on this blog, while the rest of us blog away talking about how active and great news it is to see storms finally rolling thru the Atlantic and Carribbean. ;)
I will have electricity the next day, and this house will survive a Cat 4 with no problems, now internet maybe another story.
314. vis0

Quoting 313. NativeSun:

I will have electricity the next day, and this house will survive a Cat 4 with no problems, now internet maybe another story.



hope these scenarios never happened to anyone, yet they do.

Remember not a cat4 that passes by but cat4 eyewall  (debris flying and embedded cat3 tornadoes) have2 different outcomes.
i remember some friend i knew in Florida saying over the phone they "survived Andrew" ....one problem ...they where a few miles  north of (i think it was ) Kendall?
Well of course they survived Andrew, as Andrew did not really touch their area(s)...25 billion in damage [sarcastic]i think[sarcastic] means some homes (not just mobile) where destroyed...also schools, businesses, hospitals, infrastructure etc.
NatuveSun i think you have a home that is well built but if others near by do not or there is more energy for not 1 but 2 cat3+ TS to pass by within a short period of time (2 months to a year) the odds are that even the best built homes (UNLESS in a mountain...as bunkers will flood) will have serious damage.