WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Super Typhoon Nepartak Takes Aim at Taiwan

By: Jeff Masters 10:13 PM GMT on July 05, 2016

Residents of Taiwan are turning worried eyes eastwards, where Super Typhoon Nepartak is steaming towards them after putting on a phenomenal display of rapid intensification. Nepartak went from a tropical storm with 70 mph winds on Monday afternoon to a Category 4 super typhoon with 150 mph winds in just 24 hours, as estimated by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). The typhoon took advantage of light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots and extremely warm ocean waters of 31°C (88°F) to fuel its rapid intensification. Unusually warm waters extended to great depth below the storm, creating some of the highest oceanic heat content readings we see for a tropical cyclone--near 150 kJ/cm**2 (Figure 2). Satellite loops from NOAA/SSED and NOAA/RAMMB show a mighty storm with a large area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops reaching high into the atmosphere, surrounding a 15-mile diameter eye. The storm has taken on an annular appearance, with very little in the way of spiral banding. These type of storms are more resistant to weakening than typical tropical cyclones. The Japanese Meteorological Agency estimated that Nepartak had a central pressure of 925 mb at 2:45 pm EDT Tuesday.


Figure 1. Infrared VIIRS image of Super Typhoon Nepartak at 2:10 pm EDT July 5, 2016. At the time, Nepartak was a Category 4 super typhoon with 150 mph winds. Image credit: NOAA/NASA.


Figure 2. Total Ocean Heat Content (in kilojoules per square centimeter) on July 5, 2016. The past track and forecast track of Super Typhoon Nepartak from the 2 pm EDT July 5, 2016 JTWC advisory are overlaid. After traveling over a long stretch of ocean with very high heat content, Nepartak will be moving over a relatively cool area on Wednesday afternoon (U.S. EDT time.) This reduced heat energy may be responsible for the HWRF model's forecast of a dip in the typhoon's intensity on Wednesday afternoon, followed by a re-strengthening on Thursday morning as the storm passes over another area of relatively high oceanic heat content (see Figure 3). Image credit: University of Wisconsin/CIMSS.


Figure 3. Predicted winds (top) and minimum central pressure (bottom) for Super Typhoon Nepartak made by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (red) and five computer models at 8 am EDT (12Z) July 5, 2016. The HWRF model (purple) is predicting the typical pattern one might see in an eyewall replacement cycle--a double maximum in the winds (145 kt or 165 mph at 8 pm EDT July 5 and again at 2 am EDT July 7), accompanied by a double minimum in central pressure. However, although the HWRF model is capable of simulating eyewall replacement cycles, this is probably not what is going on in this case, since the zoomed-in graphics from the HWRF model do not show concentric eyewalls forming. Image credit: NOAA/NCEP/EMC.

Nepartak a threat to Taiwan, China, South Korea, and Japan
Nepartak was headed west-northwest at 21 mph on Tuesday evening on a track that will take it very close to Taiwan by Thursday afternoon (U.S. EDT.) Our two top global models for predicting tropical cyclone tracks, the GFS and European models, both predicted that Nepartak would make landfall in Taiwan between 18 - 21 UTC (2 pm - 5 pm EDT) on Thursday. Later that day, a trough of low pressure passing to the north of the storm is expected to pull Nepartak to the north and then northeast, potentially allowing Nepartak to affect the Chinese coast just south of Shanghai, South Korea, and/or Southwest Japan late this week. Nepartak will continue to be over very warm ocean waters of 31°C (88°F) with light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots until about six hours before its expected landfall in Taiwan. Though the total heat content of the ocean will be only roughly half of what the storm fed off during its rapid intensification phase, Nepartak still has nearly ideal conditions for intensification, and will likely become a Category 5 storm on Wednesday.

The Himawari-8 Floater satellite loops have some impressive animations of Nepartak during daylight hours in the Western Pacific.

I'll have a new post on Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

s korea needs to watch this one
Anyone west of 60w needs to watch the wave at around 23-24w and 8-10n.
JUly 4th 2010 had a similar SST anomaly set up to this year's.
Thanks Dr. Masters!
Thanks for the update. I hope the track can sufficiently recurve to the east so as to spare Taiwan a direct hit.
Nepartak's eye, July 5, 2120 UTC :
Long long time lurker finally coming out to say hello to everyone. I've been following this board for many years now and have learned so much from so many of you. I had wanted to be a met in college, but couldn't handle the math courses, so I went a different route. As it turns out, my career now centers around weather-related insurance litigation so I've been blessed to get to do a little of what I like with what I am more naturally good at doing.

I may not post much on here a part from the occasional question, but I wanted to take the opportunity to say how much I appreciate the time and effort so many of you take in selecting and commenting on particular weather maps and climatology patterns. It helps us novice weather watchers understand things and appreciate this great planet of ours. Hoping for an exciting season of tracking fish storms!
Nepartak is truly a beast. I fear for anyone caught in the path of this buzzsaw.
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters....
Typhons take aim at Taiwan every single year.
Thx for the update! Great information on Nepartak. If Nepartak makes landfall in Taiwan what is its expected intensity?
Quoting 8. PedleyCA:

Thanks for the update Dr. Masters....


Enjoy your nice weather. I'll have to deal with the scorching heat for at least 1 week. The whole East US is having brutal heat. Guess what goes around, comes around, LOL
Thanks Dr. Masters. Returning one more time to my test case of the HWRF on Blas and Nepartak; one hit, one miss. Correctly predicted the extreme intensification of Nepartak. However, it was incorrect in showing Blas remaining below major hurricane status. Although it was leading the pack of intensity models on Blas so far before today's intensification.

Main reason I chose the HWRF was because I consider it among the best of the intensity guidance, and I like putting the best models to the test in "big ticket" situations like intensifying major hurricanes. I think perhaps it did well with Nepartak because its high resolution allowed it to better simulate that storm's tight but intense core in a prime RI environment. With Blas, it seemed to do a good job forecasting the structure of the storm, but couldn't come to terms with the fact that a "large core" storm like Blas can still rapidly intensify. Just something to watch for in future situations.
Quoting 10. Airstorms03:

Thx for the update! Great information on Nepartak. If Nepartak makes landfall in Taiwan what is its expected intensity?


JMA guidance for forecast model is targeting around 130 knots (920 hPa) when intensity is translated from their 100 knots.
Okay then...
Quoting 13. HadesGodWyvern:



JMA guidance for forecast model is targeting around 130 knots (920 hPa) when intensity is translated from their 100 knots.

Thanks!
Two eyes?
Quoting 9. CaribBoy:

Typhons take aim at Taiwan every single year.


Yes, and a Category five monster is still a category five monster possibly bearing down on high populated areas, with horrible life threatening flooding a read concern.
Quoting 2. TheDawnAwakening:

Anyone west of 60w needs to watch the wave at around 23-24w and 8-10n.
Huge wave but being struggling since hitting the ocean. I remembered the pros talking about it when it was inland. Nevertheless, it has some rotation and is producing some convection in the last few hours but given the unfavorable conditions in the Atlantic by other community members I guess the systems coming during July will continue struggling until there are better conditions probably in August
Once this system over Minnesota bows out and continues to feed on the outflow from weaker storms out ahead; in a couple hours think we could see a mcs with very damaging winds over western and SC Wisconsin through the night.
Quoting 19. DeepSeaRising:

Once this system over Minnesota bows out and continues to feed on the outflow from weaker storms out ahead; in a couple hours think we could see a mcs with very damaging winds over western and SC Wisconsin through the night.


And it could hit me in the morning!
Quoting 18. nocanesplease:

Huge wave but being struggling since hitting the ocean. I remembered the pros talking about it when it was inland. Nevertheless, it has some rotation and is producing some convection in the last few hours but given the unfavorable conditions in the Atlantic by other community members I guess the systems coming during July will continue struggling until there are better conditions probably in August
Good to see nobody here tracking Blas and others E-Pac boring hurricanes. At least we have that tw close to Africa.
Quoting 21. hurricanefishfla:

Good to see nobody here tracking Blas and others E-Pac boring hurricanes. At least we have that tw close to Africa.
Love the tropical imagery from CSU when these waves are that far out
From previous blog...
Quoting 245. washingtonian115:

The vigorous tropical wave is still going north of P.R.Shear is high though so development is not expected.
...
Local met said heat index here today was 104... and he's expecting this Twave in conjunction with a mid-upper low system to move into the central Bahamas by Thursday .... may get some rain from it after all.
Quoting 25. Grothar:


Hey Grothar. Any thoughts around the TW south of the CV's? You were smelling Earl a couple of days ago.....
What a beastly microwave pass!



Nepartak... this specific image, although it's on 2 different sides of the world, reminds me of this...

You should probably sleep with one eye open tonight.

I've published a blog with my thoughts on Nepartak, Blas, and 96E:

Link
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON NEPARTAK (T201601)
9:00 AM JST July 6 2016
==========================
In Sea East of the Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Nepartak (910 hPa) located at 18.7N 130.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 110 knots with gusts of 155 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 18 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===========
240 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
180 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T7.0

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 21.4N 124.4E - 110 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Sea South Of Okinawa
48 HRS: 23.4N 120.4E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Overland Taiwan
72 HRS: 25.4N 118.0E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Overland South China
Quoting 19. DeepSeaRising:

Once this system over Minnesota bows out and continues to feed on the outflow from weaker storms out ahead; in a couple hours think we could see a mcs with very damaging winds over western and SC Wisconsin through the night.
Yeah definteley keeping an eye on this squall line. This for some reason reminds me of July 13th last year. Hopefully that doesn't repeat.
WTPQ30 RJTD 060000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TY 1601 NEPARTAK (1601)

1. General comments
Reasoning of prognosis this time is similar to previous one
position forecast is mainly based on numerical weather prediction and persistency

2. Synoptic situation
nothing particular to explain

3. Motion forecast
position accuracy at 0:00 AM UTC is good
typhoon will move at the same speed for the next 24 hours then decelerate
typhoon will move west northwestward

4. Intensity forecast
typhoon will keep present intensity for the next 24 hours
Final Dvorak intensity will be 7.0 after 24 hours
Quoting 16. 62901IL:

Two eyes?

Interesting. EWRC??? I wish EyewallPaul was on, he seems to be the expert on these things.
Quoting 23. Gearsts:




Big question mark : will it happen...
Looks like no storms to track until maybe 2nd week of august and the shear and dust forcast is supposed to vamp up as well could be a record quiet season
Yuck, seems I'm the only one with below average temps on the blog. Struggled to top 56° today here in Acme WA. Drizzle most of the day for a whopping .05" doesn't get much worse than that. What happened to our record heat of April n May? Junuary was below average now I guess we are in Julyuary!?!?!?!

Considering we've already had a hurricane and 3 more tropical storms, that is impossible. We also set new records for the earliest 3rd and 4th storms of the year.
Quoting 40. BaltimoreBrian:

Considering we've already had a hurricane and 3 more tropical storms, that is impossible.

He doesn't care about logic.
EP, 03, 2016070600, , BEST, 0, 143N, 1212W, 115, 952, HU

Nope they were barely recognizable as a ts I agree the mood is changing season is going to be very quiet as us that live down here have been saying
Quoting 40. BaltimoreBrian:

Considering we've already had a hurricane and 3 more tropical storms, that is impossible. We also set new records for the earliest 3rd and 4th storms of the year.
I looked at this storm a few hours ago and Nepartak was still a Cat. 3 Typhoon.
Quoting 35. Llamaluvr:

Interesting. EWRC??? I wish EyewallPaul was on, he seems to be the expert on these things.


Well of course it has three eyes, two to look and one to see right?
Quoting 44. hotroddan:

I looked at this storm a few hours ago and Nepartak was still a Cat. 3 Typhoon.


I think you're thinking about Blas
Quoting 42. TropicalAnalystwx13:

EP, 03, 2016070600, , BEST, 0, 143N, 1212W, 115, 952, HU




Heading for 120kt! Do you think it's going to exceed your forecast? There is certainly a chance it could get close to 130kt overnight with the night-time convective boost wouldn't you think?
Quoting 47. EyewallPaul:



Heading for 120kt! Do you think it's going to exceed your forecast? There is certainly a chance it could get close to 130kt overnight with the night-time convective boost wouldn't you think?

I increased my peak from 120kt to 130kt in my blog a little while ago. :)
Quoting 48. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I increased my peak from 120kt to 130kt in my blog a little while ago. :)

I must have missed the link! Blas is starting to look very symmetrical now, I think you're spot on the money with that call.
50. Ed22
Super Typhoon Nepartak aims at Taiwan with winds of 160mph with makes it a strong Category 5 Typhoon; the strongest Typhoon so far this year 2016. Taiwanese, China, North and south Korea and Japan hope for the best its not looking good at all which makes it worse, it could strengthen further too before hitting Taiwan in the next 48 to 72 hours from now. The tropical atlantic remains quiet however a tropical wave over the eastern atlantic with a developing anticyclonic over it could aid it develop low pressure over the next several days ahead, Lesser Antillies monitor this system for any changes down the road which it could develop further...

"Now I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds." Nepartak, NOAA/RAMMB.
Quoting 48. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I increased my peak from 120kt to 130kt in my blog a little while ago. :)


My mother calls this nowcasting.

TWC in the morning: "Oh you know, 30% chance of t-storms"

later on... *rumble rumble* TWC: "90% chance of t-storms"

:P
Quoting 51. 999Ai2016:


"Now I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds."
Mesmerizing.
Quoting 50. Ed22:

Super Typhoon Nepartak aims at Taiwan with winds of 160mph with makes it a strong Category 5 Typhoon; the strongest Typhoon so far this year 2016. Taiwanese, China, North and south Korea and Japan hope for the best its not looking good at all which makes it worse, it could strengthen further too before hitting Taiwan in the next 48 to 72 hours from now. The tropical atlantic remains quiet however a tropical wave over the eastern atlantic with a developing anticyclonic over it could aid it develop low pressure over the next several days ahead, Lesser Antillies monitor this system for any changes down the road which it could develop further...
Ed, this would work better if you took a minute to read through before you post... somewhere in the middle there something doesn't link up, and I lose your flow...
Quoting 51. 999Ai2016:


"Now I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds." Nepartak, NOAA/RAMMB.
This has got to be in the ballpark of 180+ mph.
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BLAS ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 05 2016

...BLAS STILL STRENGTHENING...
...NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 121.7W
ABOUT 970 MI...1560 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES
2 tornado warnings for Buffalo County here in Wisconsin with the squall line. Both have radar confirmed tornadoes and one of them heading towards Whitehall has had history of debris.
Super Typhoon Nepartak is now officially a category 5 system with 140kt (160mph) winds.



The latest forecast by the JTWC has it strengthening to 150kts (~175mph) and not weakening much until landfall in Taiwan and then hitting Eastern China as a category 1.



Hopefully it won't cause too much damage/loss of life once it passes through these areas. Hopefully it will shift east and miss them entirely.
Quoting 59. Envoirment:

Super Typhoon Nepartak is now officially a category 5 system with 140kt (160mph) winds.



The latest forecast by the JTWC has it strengthening to 150kts (~175mph) and not weakening much until landfall in Taiwan and then hitting Eastern China as a category 1.



Hopefully it won't cause too much damage/loss of life once it passes through these areas. Hopefully it will shift east and miss them entirely.

I have no doubt it's stronger than both of those values and probably among the strongest cyclones on record. I'd go with 170kt/195mph, and that's only because we don't have a way to identify storms stronger than a T8.0 without recon.
Oh my... This is the time where we look on and simply hope and pray that all of those people in its path will be safe. Truly incredible what the power of Mother Nature can produce!
Quoting 51. 999Ai2016:


"Now I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds." Nepartak, NOAA/RAMMB.
Eye of NEPARTAK

Captured by HImawari-8 7/6/2016 0212, then rotated 90º counterclockwise, zoomed & sharpened a little.
Quoting 61. Tcwx2:

Oh my... This is the time where we look on and simply hope and pray that all of those people in its path will be safe. Truly incredible what the power of Mother Nature can produce!

:-) Especially when you give her a little boost :

See also Wunderblog : Evidence for Ocean Warming - Dr Larry P. Atkinson, July 5, 2016.
Leaving the Pacific for a moment...that bow line moving down from Minnesota into Wisconsin looks NASTY and it is heading for a lot of humdity and population. Rough night for Wisconsin and Northern Illinois coming up.
Quoting 64. ProPoly:

Leaving the Pacific for a moment...that bow line moving down from Minnesota into Wisconsin looks NASTY and it is heading for a lot of humdity and population. Rough night for Wisconsin and Northern Illinois coming up.
Yeah it's going to be a long night here in Southern Wisconsin.
Quoting 62. Skyepony:

Eye of NEPARTAK

Captured by HImawari-8 7/6/2016 0212, then rotated 90º counterclockwise, zoomed & sharpened a little.

That is a spooky, scary animal eye
Nepartak

warning signals has been raised for Batanes group of islands..

Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TYPHOON BUTCHOY
11:00 AM PhST July 6 2016
======================
Typhoon "BUTCHOY" has intensified further as it maintains its speed and direction

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Butchoy [NEPARTAK] (938 hPa) located at 18.9N 129.6E or 860 km east of Calayan, Cagayan has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gustiness up to 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 16 knots.

Signal Warnings

Signal Warning #1
---------------------
Very light or no damage to low risk structures light damage to medium to high risk structures slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities.
Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged twigs of small trees may be broken.
Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Wave Height (Open Sea): 1.25-4.0 meters

Luzon region
===============
1. Batanes group of islands

Additional Information
==================
Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within the 550 km diameter of the typhoon.

Fisherfolk are advised not to venture out over the northern and eastern seaboards of Luzon.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next weather bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
From JTWC (Warning #13 - July 06, 0300 UTC) about Nepartak :
"24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 21.9N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT"

180 kt = 333 kmh = 207 mph...
Is it possible to get PDS Severe warnings?,Because I think my local Nws just issued one for Sauk,Western Columbia and Northern Iowa counties here in Wisconsin with this squall line.
Quoting 6. IkeMadeLawyer:

Long long time lurker finally coming out to say hello to everyone. I've been following this board for many years now and have learned so much from so many of you. I had wanted to be a met in college, but couldn't handle the math courses, so I went a different route. As it turns out, my career now centers around weather-related insurance litigation so I've been blessed to get to do a little of what I like with what I am more naturally good at doing.

I may not post much on here a part from the occasional question, but I wanted to take the opportunity to say how much I appreciate the time and effort so many of you take in selecting and commenting on particular weather maps and climatology patterns. It helps us novice weather watchers understand things and appreciate this great planet of ours. Hoping for an exciting season of tracking fish storms!


Welcome to the blog. You picked a fine time to say hello, with everyone tracking Nepertak and all! I see you have gotten lots of pluses, but nobody said hello back, so "Hello"
Quoting 39. plantmoretrees:

Yuck, seems I'm the only one with below average temps on the blog. Struggled to top 56° today here in Acme WA. Drizzle most of the day for a whopping .05" doesn't get much worse than that. What happened to our record heat of April n May? Junuary was below average now I guess we are in Julyuary!?!?!?!


I see you are about 15-16° below your 70° normal temp. We are below here by 5° but nothing close to what you have. But you should enjoy it. It could be 16° the other way...
This squall line is going to be bad. It has already had at least one possible tornado near wabasha-whitehall and a second warning that just ended for the viola area.
College of DuPage severe weather and flash flood warnings
http://kamala.cod.edu/svr/
Blas is losing its feeder bands, if it keeps it up it'll most likely turn annular.

Wanted to continue to intensify between full advisories, I see.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #30
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON NEPARTAK (T201601)
12:00 PM JST July 6 2016
==========================
In Sea East of the Philippines

At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Nepartak (900 hPa) located at 19.1N 129.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 115 knots with gusts of 165 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 18 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===========
240 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
180 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T7.5
Images in Doc's blog, (fig's 1, 2, 3) are not showing up in my browser (chrome), but all the comments are fine. Anyone else having this issue?
Quoting 77. oldnewmex:

Images in Doc's blog, (fig's 1, 2, 3) are not showing up in my browser (chrome), but all the comments are fine. Anyone else having this issue?


no problems here with Chrome 64 bit browser.
Quoting 76. HadesGodWyvern:

Wanted to continue to intensify between full advisories, I see.
(...)

Or maybe it wants to become Haiyan's big brother, or it's testing the theoretical upper limit 8-X
Kudos to the people in charge of Himawari-8's website by the way, it's awesome to be able to access such HQ data from anywhere and for free... It sure doesn't look like a weakening storm :
Poll time: This July the Atlantic basin will produce____ named systems
A) 0
B) 1
C) 2
D) 3
E) more than 3
I will go with C. Probably a TS from a trough split off the southeast coast and a Cape Verde type system towards the end of the month. But that is just my guess. Would love to hear yours :-)
Quoting 77. oldnewmex:

Images in Doc's blog, (fig's 1, 2, 3) are not showing up in my browser (chrome), but all the comments are fine. Anyone else having this issue?


It's working fine on Firefox.
Squall's within an hour away here. Sections of this squall have 60-70 mph winds on it.
83. IDTH
Quoting 79. 999Ai2016:


Or maybe it wants to become Haiyan's big brother 8-X


165 knots is my prediction for peak intensity
Quoting 80. lobdelse81:

Poll time: This July the Atlantic basin will produce____ named systems
A) 0
B) 1
C) 2
D) 3
E) more than 3
I will go with C. Probably a TS from a trough split off the southeast coast and a Cape Verde type system towards the end of the month. But that is just my guess. Would love to hear yours :-)


C
Quoting 82. Geoboy645:

Squall's within an hour away here. Sections of this squall have 60-70 mph winds on it.


That squall is arriving in Madison now. It's forecast to hit Chicagoland too, at about 6:00 a.m.
Quoting 80. lobdelse81:

Poll time: This July the Atlantic basin will produce____ named systems
A) 0
B) 1
C) 2
D) 3
E) more than 3
I will go with C. Probably a TS from a trough split off the southeast coast and a Cape Verde type system towards the end of the month. But that is just my guess. Would love to hear yours :-)
A, Dry air,shear, and no mjo.
96E is vary close to TD status

Quoting 77. oldnewmex:

Images in Doc's blog, (fig's 1, 2, 3) are not showing up in my browser (chrome), but all the comments are fine. Anyone else having this issue?



I'm on Chrome, and none of the Docs' blog images are showing. All comments and images/videos in them are fine though.
Looks like the strongest section is heading towards me. 60-80 mph winds with this section.
see you guys in October. i know its sad, but before i joined here, i was in much better shape, so i bid you adieu and i see u guys later.
China Meteorological Administration with 135 knots

ZCZC 631
WTPQ20 BABJ 060300
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SUPERTY NEPARTAK 1601 (1601) INITIAL TIME 060300 UTC
00HR 19.0N 129.3E 905HPA 68M/S
30KTS WINDS 350KM NORTHEAST
320KM SOUTHEAST
280KM SOUTHWEST
350KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 150KM NORTHEAST
120KM SOUTHEAST
100KM SOUTHWEST
120KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 70KM NORTHEAST
70KM SOUTHEAST
70KM SOUTHWEST
70KM NORTHWEST
MOVE WNW 30KM/H
Quoting 90. HurricaneAndre:

see you guys in October. i know its sad, but before i joined here, i was in much better shape, so i bid you adieu and i see u guys later.



Is early July what your seeing out there is vary normal for this time of year. August and September is the main show


I say some on here this don't listen too fact that's it early July and things are normal for this time of year or some people like hurricaneAndre are too impatient.
Quoting 83. IDTH:


165 knots is my prediction for peak intensity



I wouldn't be surprised if it's actually that strong right now considering the JTWC is very conservative with their measurements and there's no recon data.
Possible trees down in Portage via Ems.
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:00 PM PDT July 5 2016
==========================

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday in association with an area of low pressure located about 500 miles south southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Continued development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while it moves westward at around 10 mph.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=========================
Tuesday: MODERATE
Wednesday: MODERATE
Thursday: MODERATE
Quoting 93. Articuno:



I wouldn't be surprised if it's actually that strong right now considering the JTWC is very conservative with their measurements and there's no recon data.



officially estimated at 155 knots (T7.5) with the most recent JMA advisory at 0300 AM UTC.
How deep is that hole in the middle?
Excellent stadium effect!

Quoting 51. 999Ai2016:


"Now I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds." Nepartak, NOAA/RAMMB.
Still forecast for a land depression to form.

India Meteorological Department
5:30 AM IST July 6 2016
==============================

The well marked low pressure area over East Uttar Pradesh and adjoining Bihar now lies over southeast Uttar Pradesh & neighborhood persists.

The system is likely to concentrate into a depression during next 24 hours.
Quoting 51. 999Ai2016:


"Now I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds." Nepartak, NOAA/RAMMB.


The speed at which that eyewall is whipping around. YIKES
96E is rapidly be coming better organized I would not be shocked if we had TD 4E by 11am or 5pm updated

96E is looking to be come a monster storm

Quoting 75. JLPR2:

Blas is losing its feeder bands, if it keeps it up it'll most likely turn annular.




It looks like it may be about to undergo an EWRC
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #31
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON NEPARTAK (T201601)
15:00 PM JST July 6 2016
==========================
In Sea East of the Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Nepartak (900 hPa) located at 19.5N 128.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 115 knots with gusts of 165 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 18 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===========
240 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
180 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T7.5

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 21.8N 123.4E - 115 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Sea South Of Okinawa
48 HRS: 23.7N 120.0E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Taiwan Strait
72 HRS: 26.3N 117.9E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Overland South China

WTPQ30 RJTD 060600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR TY 1601 NEPARTAK (1601)

1. General comments
Reasoning of prognosis this time is similar to previous one
Position forecast is mainly based on numerical weather prediction and persistency.

2. Synoptic situation
nothing particular to explain.

3.Motion forecast
Position accuracy at 06:00 AM UTC is good
typhoon will decelerate for the next 72 hours
typhoon will move west northwestward for the next 48 hours then move northwestward

4. Intensity forecast
typhoon will keep present intensity for the next 24 hours
Final Dvorak intensity will be T7.5 after 24 hours
Quoting 102. EyewallPaul:



It looks like it may be about to undergo an EWRC



All so it may have peaked
Quoting 100. HadesGodWyvern:


This is quite interesting. I didn't realize they forecasted those.
Quoting 77. oldnewmex:

Images in Doc's blog, (fig's 1, 2, 3) are not showing up in my browser (chrome), but all the comments are fine. Anyone else having this issue?

Yes, got the same problem in Firefox with doc's last two posts. Pics would show for me in Chrome, though.


The latest from Nepartak (saved).

BTW, "Nepartak" is the name of "a famous Micronesian Kosrae warrior". Source:
Taiwan to issue sea, land warnings for Typhoon Nepartak
Central News Agency, 2016-07-06 01:46 PM
Quoting 106. barbamz:


Yes, got the same problem in Firefox with doc's last two posts. Pics would show for me in Chrome, though.
Hey, Barb,
How hot is it where you are?
Quoting 107. BahaHurican:

Hey, Barb,
How hot is it where you are?

Hey, Baha. Not hot at all! Currently a sunny and fresh morning with 15C=59F. For a change we've got a normal German summer - with too much rain earlier, though.

Current pic of our cathedral, adjacent to my place. Temps will show up by clicking the cloud symbol.

Hope everything is fine on the Bahamas for you?
BLAS has peaked
Quoting 108. barbamz:


Hey, Baha. Not hot at all! Currently a sunny and fresh morning with 15C=59F. For a change we've got a normal German summer - with too much rain earlier, though.

Current pic of our cathedral, adjacent to my place. Temps will show up by clicking the cloud symbol.

Hope everything is fine on the Bahamas for you?
About normal. Hot days with 10 - 15 mph Easterlies...
Nepartak has a good chance to break 'all' records in terms of speed, pressure, cost/damage. I still don't get it--when 'we' say that a storm is getting more organized (meaning more powerfull) do we mean more chaotic (increasing entropy)!?
A devastating scenario would be to have an earthquake of magnitude 6 or higher in an area where a Cat5 cyclone is about to make a landfall.
One last sample, from Himawari-8's rapid scan floater, before the sun sets there :

How little has its appearance changed under the sun... To me Nepartak's looked the same all day long, no eye-wall replacement cycle, no remarkable change in intensity or symmetry (although it kept intensifying of course), a perfect victory against entropy for about 18 hours. Looking at it, I think an eye-wall replacement cycle could be about to begin. We'll see, maybe not but it would be logical to see at least one such cycle unfolding during the next two days. By the way, I think VJs could use these sat. loops, it would look great.
Quoting 113. 999Ai2016:

One last sample, from Himawari-8's rapid scan floater, before the sun sets there :

How little its appearance changed under the sun... To me Nepartak has looked the same all day long, no eye-wall replacement cycle, no remarkable change in intensity or symmetry (although it kept intensifying of course), a perfect victory against entropy for about 18 hours. Looking at it, I think an eye-wall replacement cycle could be about to begin. We'll see, but it would be logical to see at least one such cycle at any time during the next two days. By the way, I think VJs could use these sat. loops, it would look great.

' a perfect victory against entropy for about 18 hours.' - in a way... It is absolutely maximizing universe's increase of entropy. Perfect energy dissipation going on.

EWRC's don't happen in those hyper systems.
Quoting 114. cRRKampen:


' a perfect victory against entropy for about 18 hours.' - in a way... It is absolutely maximizing universe's increase of entropy. Perfect energy dissipation going on.

EWRC's don't happen in those hyper systems.

I meant it more in a litterary kind of way, but you understood my point anyways. That's fine, it's a good reminder that sometimes I shouldn't use borrowed concepts from physics I don't fully understand. Are you sure about the EWRC, and do you know why ?
Nepartak's eye got so small today that it's barely visible by MIMIC (so there may be an EWRC under way, no?):

117. MahFL
Quoting 59. Envoirment:



Hopefully it won't cause too much damage/loss of life once it passes through these areas. Hopefully it will shift east and miss them entirely.


People in Taiwan continue to go to work as normal during typhoons, they are so worried about losing their jobs...
Good Morning; the big picture of Nepartak this morning; sustained winds at 172 mph and gusting up to 207 mph......Amazing..............

WTPN31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 19.5N 128.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT





Quoting 116. barbamz:

Nepartak's eye got so small today that it's barely visible by MIMIC (so there may be an EWRC under way, no?):


I think the same, The eye can t get any smaller this. And yes, even strongest tropical cyclones undergo eyewall replacement cyclones, It s possible for a tropical cyclone to attain such an intensity that TC s wouldn t undergo eyewall replacement cycles, but I heard in a documentary that hypercane intensity (about 500 mph sustained) is needed for that, such a storm can never form in the current atmosphere.
One last close up of Nepartak before the sun goes down.
Quoting 115. 999Ai2016:


I meant it more in a litterary kind of way, but you understood my point anyways. That's fine, it's a good reminder that sometimes I shouldn't use borrowed concepts from physics I don't fully understand. Are you sure about the EWRC, and do you know why ?

First, note some notes on the EWRC perhaps happening after all with Nepartak posted after mine.
But I've seen those tungsten discs revolve for 24 hours without any change to appearance with objects such as Haiyan, Patricia and some of last year's Pacific systems.

I am not entirely 'sure', need more statistics.
And I got no idea why it would be so.
The eye wall-core of the storm is basically equivalent to an EF-3 to EF-4 tornado on the Enhanced Fujita scale at the moment but on a much larger scale:


Wow, the heat in the SE is getting nasty. It's 7 am in NW Florida right now and it's 85 with a heat index of 95, going to be a very hot one today unless we get some relief from thunderstorms. Prayers to Taiwan and the others that may be in the path of the beast of a storm headed their way.
Here are the current global ssts; those waters near Taiwan are some of the warmest out there at the moment........................



if any area of the world is ready for earths wrath its Taiwan.
And here is the West Pacific shear chart; a little frightening to see the storm headed towards very little shear in the vicinity of Taiwan at the moment along with very warm SSTs:





how hot is it? here is what mlb.nws says ."Unseasonably Warm and Humid With Only Isolated Storms..." another steaming day ahead here in e cen florida
Quoting 122. weathermanwannabe:

The eye wall-core of the storm is basically equivalent to an EF-3 to EF-4 tornado on the Enhanced Fujita scale at the moment but on a much larger scale:


%uFFFD


I always hate the hurricane to tornado comparisons. The wind speeds may be the same but the movement of air is completely different. Reed Timmer measured vertical wind speed (uplifting motion) over 200 mph in a tornado. You also have instant change in wind direction.
You don't see semi trucks picked up and thrown hundreds of feet in the air during a hurricane (CAT5). That's because you don't have the vertical wind motion
Of course, hurricanes affect a larger area, but they are not as destructive (when making equal wind speed comparisons).
Nepartak has 210 MPH wind gusts but luckily the mountains of Taiwan should tear this system up before it makes landfall.
Quoting 129. Sfloridacat5:



I always hate the hurricane to tornado comparisons. The wind speeds may be the same but the movement of air is completely different. Reed Timmer measured vertical wind speed (uplifting motion) over 200 mph in a tornado. You also have instant change in wind direction.
You don't see semi trucks picked up and thrown hundreds of feet in the air during a hurricane (CAT5). That's because you don't have the vertical wind motion
Of course, hurricanes affect a larger area, but they are not as destructive (when making equal wind speed comparisons).


Good points; however, some lighter vehicles can get flipped over. My GF's house was at ground zero for Andrew and her boat (on a trailer) ended up blown over against her neighbors house and I saw a few mangled and flipped cars on the same street............Don't know if that was related to the eye wall or the documented mini-vortex/tornadoes up to Cat 5 damage in some areas (her house was leveled except for a few rooms as well as most of the houses on that street in that sub-division)
Quoting 129. Sfloridacat5:



I always hate the hurricane to tornado comparisons. The wind speeds may be the same but the movement of air is completely different. Reed Timmer measured vertical wind speed (uplifting motion) over 200 mph in a tornado. You also have instant change in wind direction.
You don't see semi trucks picked up and thrown hundreds of feet in the air during a hurricane (CAT5). That's because you don't have the vertical wind motion
Of course, hurricanes affect a larger area, but they are not as destructive (when making equal wind speed comparisons).
Don't forget tornado formation during hurricanes can account for much of the damage. That said, 175 mph straight line winds still do a great deal of damage.
Quoting 132. BahaHurican:

Don't forget tornado formation during hurricanes can account for much of the damage. That said, 175 mph straight line winds still do a great deal of damage.

I am still looking for footage of Reykjavik, Iceland, 3 February 1991.
Cat. 4 winds of an extratropical freak.
Footage shows street in city, car picked up, slammed up into second story of appartment building then flying on like tumbleweed out of sight.
Quoting 126. islander101010:

if any area of the world is ready for earths wrath its Taiwan.

Holland. Holland, first. Beg beg.
Current Conditions Station (reported 5 seconds ago, NE Fla)

85.7 °F

Feels Like 98.9 °F

Feels Like 98.9 °F


Geeesh, it's not even 9:45am yet!
Been a while here in ecf since we had such a hot July. We need more afternoon storms!
Quoting 128. islander101010:

how hot is it? here is what mlb.nws says ."Unseasonably Warm and Humid With Only Isolated Storms..." another steaming day ahead here in e cen florida
Small blobation over Hispaniola.


A typhoon, even a category 5, hitting the east coast of Taiwan will never do the damage of a Katrina, Camille, or Andrew, unless it's extreme flooding due to slow movement. The mountain ranges in Taiwan are high, the east coast is sparsely populated, and the infrastructure/populace is accustomed to land falling Typhoons.

My mother grew up in Taipei, she's told me a number of stories about flooding up to the 2nd/3rd story in her apartment building during typhoons, it's just a fact of life for them.

Now if a cat 5 had managed to get south of Taiwan and was heading north onto the west coast of Taiwan, I would be pretty concerned.
Quoting 137. Grothar:




There is no way it gets back up to cat 4 strength after crossing Taiwan, those mountains are Typhoon killers and according to the models it only has around 12-15 hours over the Taiwan Strait. Category 2 max.
Quoting 141. pipelines:



There is no way it gets back up to cat 4 strength after crossing Taiwan, those mountains are Typhoon killers and according to the models it only has around 12-15 hours over the Taiwan Strait. Category 2 max.

Agree with this.
Quoting 143. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:




Could rival Typhoon Tip if that verifies.
Quoting 62. Skyepony:

Eye of NEPARTAK

Captured by HImawari-8 7/6/2016 0212, then rotated 90º counterclockwise, zoomed & sharpened a little.
What a beautiful sight. Just too bad that it's going to hurt so many...prayers to those in its' path
Quoting 145. washingtonian115:


The Silent Danger.
Quoting 136. aquak9:

Current Conditions Station (reported 5 seconds ago, NE Fla)

85.7 °F

Feels Like 98.9 °F

Feels Like 98.9 °F


Geeesh, it's not even 9:45am yet!

TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE. WHEN
POSSIBLE...RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES TO THE EARLY MORNING OR
LATE EVENING. KNOW THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND
HEAT STROKE. WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING AND
DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.

TO REDUCE RISK DURING OUTDOOR WORK THE OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND
HEALTH ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS SCHEDULING FREQUENT REST BREAKS
IN A SHADED OR AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENT. ANYONE OVERCOME BY
HEAT SHOULD BE MOVED TO A COOL LOCATION. HEAT STROKE IS AN
EMERGENCY...CALL 9 1 1.

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MEANS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR. THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL CREATE A HAZARDOUS SITUATION
IN WHICH HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES ARE LIKELY. DRINK PLENTY OF
FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN AND
CHECK ON ELDERLY RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS.

YOUNG CHILDREN AND PETS SHOULD NEVER BE LEFT UNATTENDED IN A
VEHICLE UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE DURING HOT
WEATHER WHEN A CAR`S INTERIOR CAN REACH LETHAL TEMPERATURES IN A
MATTER OF MINUTES.

KEEP PETS IN A COOL ENVIRONMENT AND PROVIDE THEM WITH PLENTY OF
WATER.

&&
Dry again.....and yes I am complaining.....
But we know it will change in August right!
Quoting 134. cRRKampen:


Holland. Holland, first. Beg beg.


Not sure the storm surge would be that pleasant. The dykes aren't that high, or at least they didn't look it when I lived there. I know they were built to resist the level of storm surge you got in 1953 (may have the date wrong there), but is that similar to what a Sandy-like storm would push up?
Quoting 150. OviedoWatcher:



Not sure the storm surge would be that pleasant. The dykes aren't that high, or at least they didn't look it when I lived there. I know they were built to resist the level of storm surge you got in 1953 (may have the date wrong there), but is that similar to what a Sandy-like storm would push up?

No, we're safe to the sea for some time yet.
It's the rivers I'm waiting for.

I am quite sure the 1953 southern North Sea surge was worse (in metres maybe double) than what Sandy could push up. This the result of the wind field's shape in combination with the narrowing coast line and a bit extra from the spring tide.
Dykes since have been made to withstand far worse surges. There have been two that were near the 1953 situation but they were merely a bit of a nuisance for cars parked on Rotterdam or Dordrecht quays.
Quoting 151. cRRKampen:


No, we're safe to the sea for some time yet.
It's the rivers I'm waiting for.


Yeah, those can be a problem. I lived in the Netherlands back in the 90's, and I remember the Maas and Waal flooding (1998?). Seeing the way the evacuation was organized and carried out really impressed me. Comparing that to NO in 2005 was an eye opener.
Quoting 152. OviedoWatcher:



Yeah, those can be a problem. I lived in the Netherlands back in the 90's, and I remember the Maas and Waal flooding (1998?). Seeing the way the evacuation was organized and carried out really impressed me. Comparing that to NO in 2005 was an eye opener.

1995, quarter million evacuated for up to ten days. The levies held, but just.
Since, a lot has been done to give the rivers more flooding room.
But I don't think we can save it all when it is finally our turn for the 'millenium floods'.
Damages would be material, but huge.

The 1995 floods were approximately a twice per century event.
We have been lucking out in an incredible way, since.

However we do have a billion dollar disaster for the month of June... crop failure from rains estimated a billion euro's; baseball widespread totally unheard of hail storm another 3/4 billion (in dollars). Farmers are clamouring for 'national emergency' to get something of help. Insurers bawl, having already suffered net losses last year from, whodathunk, weather events.
Quoting 144. 62901IL:



Could rival Typhoon Tip if that verifies.

Like Typhoon Tip, it seems to be expanding.
159. 882MB
So quite. :)
Quoting 149. 19N81W:

Dry again.....and yes I am complaining.....
But we know it will change in August right!




Yes, the rain will surely come back someday. But for now ...
Quoting 159. 882MB:

So quite. :)

Small blob north of DR.
Any good webcam on east coast of Taiwan?
Pretty impressive!

Radar Taiwan.
Link
Taiwan beach weather and cams
Link

The storm is expanding based on this gif.
One of the model predicts a monster.
This the monster.

While reaching its global peak intensity record, Typhoon Tip expanded. Is that what Nepartak is attempting do?
Quoting 145. washingtonian115:




YIKES....
Current Conditions Station (reported 8 seconds ago, NE Fla)
90.9 °F
Feels Like 106.5 °F

Feels Like 106.5 °F


Nepartak's Eyewall Replacement Cycle (EWRC) now visible in the last frames of MIMIC.
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 061442
TCDEP3

HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016
800 AM PDT WED JUL 06 2016

The overall satellite appearance of Blas has changed little since
early this morning. Blas has characteristics of an annular
hurricane with a large 25 to 30 n mi wide eye surrounded by a
symmetric convective ring with little outer banding features. The
initial intensity remains 110 kt, and is a blend of the various
objective and subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates.
Blas is currently in a low shear environment and over SSTs of 27-28
degrees Celsius. Although the shear is forecast to remain low for
the next several days, decreasing sea surface temperatures along the
forecast track should result in gradual weakening of the hurricane
during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, Blas will be
moving over SSTs below 26C which should cause a faster rate of
weakening, and the cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical in
about 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous
advisory and lies between the SHIPS and LGEM models.

Blas is moving west-northwestward or 285 degrees at 10 kt, and
should continue on this general motion during the next 36 to 48
hours while it moves around the southwestern portion of a mid-level
ridge over northern Mexico. By 72 hours, the model guidance begins
to diverge with the GFS, HWRF, GFDL, and GFS ensemble mean taking
Blas northwestward around the eastern portion of a large mid- to
upper-level low to the northeast of Hawaii. The ECMWF and UKMET
models show a more westward track, with less interaction between the
upper-low and the hurricane. This appears to be the result of the
size, location, and orientation of the upper-low in the various
models. Given the large spread in the guidance, there is low
confidence in the the track forecast late in the period, and the NHC
forecast track remains near the GFS/ECMWF consensus at days 3-5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 15.0N 123.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 15.4N 125.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 16.0N 127.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 16.6N 128.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 17.5N 130.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 19.6N 133.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 21.8N 137.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 11/1200Z 22.5N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown
Does Nepartak have concentric eye walls. If it does, could someone post a image of them.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 168. aquak9:

Current Conditions Station (reported 8 seconds ago, NE Fla)
90.9 °F
Feels Like 106.5 °F

Feels Like 106.5 °F



Very similar to us in Houston today, with temps in the 92 to 98 range and heat index readings in the 104 to 109 range. Fun stuff ;-)
174. vis0

Quoting 80. lobdelse81:

Poll time: This July the Atlantic basin will produce____ named systems
A) 0
B) 1
C) 2
D) 3
E) more than 3
I will go with C. Probably a TS from a trough split off the southeast coast and a Cape Verde type system towards the end of the month. But that is just my guess. Would love to hear yours :-)
D/C+B...scribed in stone