WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

East and West Pacific Tropical Cyclone Seasons Begin With a Bang

By: Jeff Masters 12:53 AM GMT on July 05, 2016

The longest tropical cyclone-free period in Northwest Pacific history--200 days--ended on Saturday July 3, with the formation of Tropical Storm Nepartak in the waters just south of Guam. The previous tropical cyclone in the basin was Typhoon Melor , which fell below tropical storm strength on December 16, 2015. According to Colorado State University hurricane expert Dr. Phil Klotzbach, the previous longest tropical cyclone drought in the Northwest Pacific was two days shorter--198 days--during December 1972 - June 1973. The July 3 start date for the 2016 season's first named storm is the second latest start date in the 66-year period of record. Only 1998, with a July 8 start date, had a later start. All three of these late-starting years--2016, 1998, and 1973--featured strong El Niño conditions transitioning to neutral or La Niña conditions later in the year.  The upper-level atmospheric circulation associated with such a transition brings an unfavorable environment for tropical cyclones--sinking air, surface high pressure, and dry conditions. Surface pressures over the past month in the waters east of the Philippines extending to the date line have been 0.5 - 1.5 mb above average.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Nepartak (70 mph winds) at 23 UTC July 4, 2016. Image credit: NOAA.

Nepartak a potential threat to Taiwan, China, South Korea, and Japan
Nepartak was headed northwest at 22 mph on Monday evening on a track that will take it very close to the northern portion of Taiwan by Thursday afternoon (U.S. EDT.) At that time, a trough of low pressure passing to the north of the storm may pull the storm to the north and then northeast, potentially allowing Nepartak to affect the Chinese coast just south of Shanghai, South Korea, and/or Southwest Japan late this week. Nepartak is over very warm ocean waters of 31°C (88°F) with moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots. On Tuesday, Nepartak will cross over a region of ocean with very high heat content, and wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots. These nearly ideal conditions for intensification will likely allow the storm to strengthen into a major Category 3 typhoon by Wednesday.

The Himawari-8 Floater satellite loops have some impressive animations of Nepartak during daylight hours in the Western Pacific.


Figure 2. MODIS visible satellite image of Hurricane Blas taken on the afternoon of July 3, 2016. At the time, Blas was a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Second latest start to the Eastern Pacific hurricane season on record
It's also been a near-record late start to the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, which finally got its first named storm on July 2 when Tropical Storm Agatha formed in the waters over 1000 miles south of the tip of Mexico's Baja Peninsula. Agatha's formation made 2016 the second latest-starting Eastern Pacific hurricane season (east of 140°W) since accurate satellite records began in 1971. The latest first tropical storm on record was Tropical Storm Ava of 1969, which strengthened to a tropical storm at 00 UTC on July 3. Agatha has now been joined by Hurricane Blas, which spun into life on July 3 about 700 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula. Agatha and Blas are likely to be joined by Tropical Storm Celia late this week, since both the European and GFS models predict that an area of disturbed weather located several hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico will develop. In their 8 pm EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this new disturbance 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 70%, respectively. Agatha and Blas are not a threat to any land areas, but Hawaii should keep an eye on the disturbance expected to become Celia. Steering currents next week may favor a more westerly track than Agatha and Blas are taking.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the remainder of the week. Much of the tropical North Atlantic is dominated by a large area of dry air and dust from the Sahara Desert, which is common in early July.

I'll have a new post on Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks dok!
Thanks for the update

Taco :o)
Hey Jeff take a vacation then may be will get a named storm
Any model runs for Celia?
Thanks Dr. Masters! The Eastern and Western Pacific is really starting to roar, while the Atlantic takes a little slumber for now.
Blas looks really big to me. Yuuuuuge.
"Agatha's formation made 2016 the second latest-starting Eastern Pacific hurricane season (east of 140°W) since accurate satellite records began in 1971. The latest first tropical storm on record was Tropical Storm Ava of 1969, which strengthened to a tropical storm at 00 UTC on July 3. "

So, is there a later-starting first storm since 1971, as Ava was before that?
Quoting 4. Tazmanian:

Any model runs for Celia?

Didn't someone make a "joke" last blog about the gfs taking a storm to Hawaii mid-july? Perhaps that was it... Too tired to go to Levis site and find out myself... Lol
Thanks Dr. Masters, GO EPAC....
Quiet blog... hope people are enjoying their holiday....

We'll get ours next week as Independence Day is on 10th July, so we will have Monday off.
Quoting 4. Tazmanian:

Any model runs for Celia?

Ain't got any, but this is what the latest GFS run looks like on earth.nullschool.net.
These are surface wind speeds - 2016/07/09/1800Z :
Quoting 11. 999Ai2016:


Ain't got any, but this is what the latest GFS run looks like on earth.nullschool.net.
These are surface wind speeds - 2016/07/09/1800Z :

Looks like Celia is supposed to start from quite a large gyre, which would imply slower development and therefore a more westward track.
Quoting 4. Tazmanian:

Any model runs for Celia?


Seven runs of GFS have shown "Celia" bringing tropical storm force winds to Hawai'i.
Beautiful Blas(t) :
Quoting 15. 999Ai2016:

Beautiful Blas(t) :



Look this gorgeous outflow! This gonna explodes tomorrow!

Upper level moisture blowoff from Agatha headed into SoCal while the monsoon looks very active over the Sonoran Desert of Mexico. Meanwhile, the Euro model has rain headed into NorCal from the northern storm track later next week, which would be highly unusual for July. I'll believe it when I hear the gutters flowing.
Just posted an entry on the pacific hurricanes and the threat of severe weather we had this morning...check it out and happy fourth!
R.I.S.
T.C.F.W.
03E/B/MH/C3
Quoting 10. BahaHurican:

Quiet blog... hope people are enjoying their holiday....

We'll get ours next week as Independence Day is on 10th July, so we will have Monday off.

our next holiday weekend of summer is heritage day august 1 then the final weekend on labor day


This time the timing looks good. Dmax **may** bring us good rain.
Quoting 21. CaribBoy:



This time the timing looks good. Dmax **may** bring us good rain.
ya its a nice looking wave u get some rains perhaps
Quoting 20. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


our next holiday weekend of summer is heritage day august 1 then the final weekend on labor day
Yeah, we get 1st Monday in August as Emancipation Day, then nothing else until Columbus / Discovery Day in October....
Quoting 21. CaribBoy:



This time the timing looks good. Dmax **may** bring us good rain.
Hope you do get some rain, as that Twave looks unlikely to bring much moisture our way later in the week ....
Rain, wonderful rain!!
Quoting 23. BahaHurican:

Yeah, we get 1st Monday in August as Emancipation Day, then nothing else until Columbus / Discovery Day in October....
before we know it summer will be gone and September will be here
Quoting 26. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

before we know it summer will be gone and September will be here
Not sure if I'm keen on September, given potential tracks this season ,...
:o/
But it's not like we can stop it......
Quoting 25. wadadlian:

Rain, wonderful rain!!


Where?
29. IDTH
The MJO forecast is very uncertain at this point and it is looking less likely that the Atlantic will get out of it's downward phase in early to mid July. I'm intrigued by the possibility of the wave of coming off Africa getting a good shot at developing due to the kelvin wave that is making it's way through the Atlantic and it is likely to meet up with the wave which could give it a good environment to develop.
Nothing going on in the Caribbean that's for sure someone send a thunderstorm or 2....... Very quiet season I think
Quoting 29. IDTH:

The MJO forecast is very uncertain at this point and it is looking less likely that the Atlantic will get out of it's downward phase in early to mid July. I'm intrigued by the possibility of the wave of coming off Africa getting a good shot at developing due to the kelvin wave that is making it's way through the Atlantic and it is likely to meet up with the wave which could give it a good environment to develop.

Not with all that dust out there. The best chances for storms right now are closer to the Americas. The Cape Verde storms are more typical late in the season.
HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016
800 PM PDT MON JUL 04 2016

Blas is gradually gaining strength. A ragged eye has been occasionally evident in geostationary satellite images and the inner core of the hurricane appears a little better organized than it was earlier today. In fact, a recent SSMIS microwave overpass showed an eye feature within the symmetric CDO. The latest Dvorak classifications and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support raising the initial intensity to 75 kt.

The hurricane is expected to remain in conducive environmental conditions for strengthening for another 36 hours as the wind shear is expected to be less than 10 kt with sufficiently warm water and a considerable amount of moisture. The official NHC intensity forecast remains at the upper end of the guidance during that time and calls for Blas to reach major hurricane status. In about two days, however, the system is forecast to move over sea surface temperatures of around 26 C and into a more stable air mass, which should end the strengthening phase and promote a steady weakening trend. Blas is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by the end of the period when it is forecast to be over sea surface temperatures near 24 C.

Blas continues to move west-northwestward at about 12 kt on the south side of a sprawling mid-level ridge over Mexico and the eastern Pacific Ocean. The models are in very good agreement in showing a continued west-northwestward motion during the next 3 to 4 days while the ridge remains the primary steering mechanism. There is some divergence in the model solutions by the end of the forecast period, with the GFS, GFDL, and UKMET models showing a more northern track while the ECMWF and HWRF models have a track farther south. This spread is associated with differences in how much Blas interacts with a cut off low north of the Hawaiian Islands. The NHC track forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope and is very close to the multi-model consensus TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 14.0N 116.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 14.4N 118.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 14.9N 121.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 15.3N 123.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 15.8N 125.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 17.1N 129.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 18.9N 132.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 20.7N 135.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Quoting 28. CaribBoy:



Where?
Antigua. Expected to extend into tomorrow
New day, new blog:

Link
35. IDTH
I don't know if a lot of you watch Mark Sudduth's Hurricane season updates but he definitely is among my favorites to listen to.
Link
Quoting 29. IDTH:

The MJO forecast is very uncertain at this point and it is looking less likely that the Atlantic will get out of it's downward phase in early to mid July. I'm intrigued by the possibility of the wave of coming off Africa getting a good shot at developing due to the kelvin wave that is making it's way through the Atlantic and it is likely to meet up with the wave which could give it a good environment to develop.
Question is if the dry air can cooperate and that the models will latch. But for now, just wait til August.
sunrise approaches red sea

The Juno Jupiter orbit insertion burn was on time and energy.

Welcome back to the Jovian system.

Well done America.



Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TYPHOON BUTCHOY
11:00 AM PhST July 5 2016
======================
"NEPARTAK" has intensified into a Typhoon and is expected to enter the Philippine Area Of Responsibility this afternoon and will be named "BUTCHOY"

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Butchoy [NEPARTAK] (976 hPa) located at 15.6N 136.2E or 1,570 km east of Baler, Aurora has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gustiness up to 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 16 knots.

Additional Information
==================
Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within the 300 km diameter of the typhoon.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.

Models diverge on the forecast track now, what next ?


Conditions Are Ripe for an Intense Fire Season in Amazonia
NASA Earth Observatory, July 5, 2016
El Niño conditions in 2015 and early 2016 altered rainfall patterns around the world. In the Amazon basin, El Niño reduced rainfall during the wet season, leaving the region drier at the start of the 2016 dry season than any year since 2002.
“Severe drought conditions at the start of the dry season have set the stage for extreme fire risk in 2016 across the southern Amazon,” said Doug Morton, an Earth scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center and a co-creator of the fire forecast. The wildfire risk for July to October now exceeds the fire risk in 2005 and 2010—drought years when wildfires burned large swaths of the rainforest. ...

More see link above.
Quoting 44. barbamz:



Conditions Are Ripe for an Intense Fire Season in Amazonia
NASA Earth Observatory, July 5, 2016
El Ni%uFFFDo conditions in 2015 and early 2016 altered rainfall patterns around the world. In the Amazon basin, El Ni%uFFFDo reduced rainfall during the wet season, leaving the region drier at the start of the 2016 dry season than any year since 2002.
%u201CSevere drought conditions at the start of the dry season have set the stage for extreme fire risk in 2016 across the southern Amazon,%u201D said Doug Morton, an Earth scientist at NASA%u2019s Goddard Space Flight Center and a co-creator of the fire forecast. The wildfire risk for July to October now exceeds the fire risk in 2005 and 2010%u2014drought years when wildfires burned large swaths of the rainforest. ...

More see link above.

This is scary... 2005 was a terrible year there :
Causes and Impact of the 2005 Amazon Drought - Research Paper
And yet, when you compare May 2005 to May 2016...
Another recent article has warned about the problem :
El Nio may cause more intense fire season in Amazon this year
UPI - June 29, 2016.
Standing on the Cascade crest at 6900' above Cutthroat pass, WA looking south. Nice and warm at the trailhead, my friends were kidding me about wearing jeans, about 45° at the pass, the joke was on them, they were cold, i wasn't. Long hike 12mi roundtrip 2400' elevation gain total bun burner, spending the 4th recovering but stoked to have found a new favorite hike!


I see a difference of opinion there!

Quoting 13. 999Ai2016:


Quoting 47. swflurker:

I see a difference of opinion there!

JTWC says it's very confident in its forecast track at the moment (from Typhoon Nepartak - Warning Number 9) :

But there will be new warnings soon from the JTWC, and we'll see.
Quoting 33. wadadlian:

Antigua. Expected to extend into tomorrow

Your handle makes sense now that I know the natives call the island Wadadli (or Waladi) according to Wikipedia.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON NEPARTAK (T201601)
15:00 PM JST July 5 2016
==========================
In Sea East of the Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Nepartak (955 hPa) located at 16.2N 135.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 17 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===========
180 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 19.1N 129.2E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East of the Philippines
48 HRS: 22.0N 124.2E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea South Of Okinawa
72 HRS: 24.7N 121.4E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Overland Taiwan
WTPQ30 RJTD 050600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR TY 1601 NEPARTAK (1601)

1. General comments
reasoning of Prognosis this is similar to previous one.
position forecast is mainly based on numerical weather prediction and persistency

2. Synoptic situation
nothing particular to explain

3. Motion forecast
position accuracy at 0600 UTC is good
typhoon will move at the same speed for the next 48 hours then decelerate
typhoon will move west northwestward

4. Intensity forecast
typhoon will keep present intensity for next 24 hours
final Dvorak intensity number will be 6.0 after 24 hours
Quoting 51. HadesGodWyvern:

(..) Intensity forecast
typhoon will keep present intensity for next 24 hours
final Dvorak intensity number will be 6.0 after 24 hours


Soon 6 could be Nepartak's category instead of its Dvorak intensity number... :-(
A close-up of Nepartak - yesterday at 2230 UTC :


Last month was the hottest June on record in Death Valley National Park, with a sweltering average temperature of 101.9 degrees. June 2016’s temperatures exceeded average June temperatures by about 6 degrees.

The average of 95.5 degrees had been recorded over the past 105 years. Official weather observations have been recorded at Furnace Creek since 1911.

Death Valley’s average daily high temperature this June was 115.5 degrees and the average overnight low was 88.2 degrees. In spite of a record-setting average temperature, Death Valley only set a new daily record one day last month, with 126 degrees recorded on June 21.


Link
Continuous rainfall leaves at least 61 dead in China

BEIJING, July 3 (Xinhua) -- Continuous rainfall over the past two weeks in parts of China has left at least 61 people dead and 14 others missing, local authorities said Sunday. ....................................... Over 17 million people have been affected by the rain in the two provinces, with 974,000 people relocated. The rain also destroyed over 400,000 rooms and affected 1.4 million hectares of crops.

Link
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
321 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016

GAZ039-050-051-059>062-071>076-081>086-093>098-10 5>113-052200-
/O.NEW.KFFC.HT.Y.0002.160705T1600Z-160705T2200Z/
WILKES-GREENE-TALIAFERRO-JASPER-PUTNAM-HANCOCK-WA RREN-MONROE-
JONES-BALDWIN-WASHINGTON-GLASCOCK-JEFFERSON-CRAWF ORD-BIBB-TWIGGS-
WILKINSON-JOHNSON-EMANUEL-MACON-PEACH-HOUSTON-BLE CKLEY-LAURENS-
TREUTLEN-DOOLY-CRISP-PULASKI-WILCOX-DODGE-TELFAIR -WHEELER-
MONTGOMERY-TOOMBS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MILLEDGEVILLE...MACON...SWAINSBORO...
WARNER ROBINS...DUBLIN...CORDELE...VIDALIA
321 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A HEAT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA. ALONG AND EAST OF A CORDELE TO
OGLETHORPE TO MONTICELLO TO WASHINGTON ZONE.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...105.

* IMPACTS...HEAT EXHAUSTION OR HEAT STROKE CAN QUICKLY OCCUR TO
ANYONE WORKING OR PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HEAT ADVISORY MEANS THAT A PERIOD OF DANGEROUS HEAT IS
EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND
HIGH HUMIDITY WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX READINGS OF AT LEAST
105 DEGREES AND VERY WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM AND STAY
OUT OF DIRECT SUNSHINE. REMEMBER...THE ELDERLY...VERY YOUNG...AND
PEOPLE WITH HEART CONDITIONS ARE MOST AT RISK IN EXTREME HEAT.
FRIENDS...RELATIVES... AND NEIGHBORS SHOULD CHECK ON PEOPLE WHO
MAY BE AT RISK.

&&

Quoting 39. Patrap:

The Juno Jupiter orbit insertion burn was on time and energy.

Welcome back to the Jovian system.

Well done America.


The insertion engine is British :).

The things you have to think of in making a forecast...

Rising H85 temperatures with W/SW flow aloft, warming to around
+19C. Highs forecast into the 90s for low lying valley locations
such as CT and Merrimack with attendant downsloping flow as noted by
the previous forecaster. Wanting to lean higher temperatures for
those areas having appreciable dry conditions per drought monitor,
plus some consideration towards areas which are devoid of vegetation
per caterpillar infestation.
Dewpoints around the low 60s, going to
be a bit muggy and subsequently feel uncomfortable. Continued rising
heights with high pressure maintained in the vicinity of the Gulf of
ME. With daytime heating with just scattered cloud decks, expecting
sea breezes to develop by mid-morning providing cooler temperatures
and relief from the heat for coastline communities.

And they're absolutely correct. Some places up here have been totally defoliated, oaks, pines, everything, by gypsy moth caterpillars. Totally changing the landscape, and that lack of greenery on top of already dry conditions could lead to some real scorchers in southern New England this summer.
Good Morning; the latest shots of Nepartak, Blas in the E-Pac, and Agatha:

Floater One AVN Enanced imageFloater One AVN Enanced imageFloater One AVN Enanced image





Blas:  (wow):


Going to be a hot day today, it's not yet 8 am and it's 80F, 98F is forecast, my behind is staying in the a/c...
Well the MJO forecast changed 100 % from last weeks forecast, now not favorable in the Atlantic.



Quoting 61. MahFL:

Well the MJO forecast changed 100 % from last weeks forecast, now not favorable in the Atlantic.




It is best to not be looking at it, we are still in a sinking phase in the Atlantic, and that does not look to change until we get to late July-early August.
Quoting 60. MahFL:

Going to be a hot day today, it's not yet 8 am and it's 80F, 98F is forecast, my behind is staying in the a/c...
yes heat index will be around 105 or so whew.
Major PDO across the Pacific continues to diminish the chances of La-Nina. As I have said many times this is 2014 but for the opposite reasons. 2014 record warm pool but atmosphere couldn't respond. 2016 impressive cold pool but the PDO is choking off any attempt for La-Nina to get going. I called this back earlier this year that the PDO is going to have a major role in ENSO forecast this year leading to major bust in global models.

Quoting 61. MahFL:

Well the MJO forecast changed 100 % from last weeks forecast, now not favorable in the Atlantic.






A lot of this can be pegged to the persistently strong PDO. Looking more and more that El-Nino could make a appearance in early 2017.
Quoting 60. MahFL:

Going to be a hot day today, it's not yet 8 am and it's 80F, 98F is forecast, my behind is staying in the a/c...


56 F, here in Scotland at 1.30 pm.
Quoting 66. StormTrackerScott:



A lot of this can be pegged to the persistently strong PDO. Looking more and more that El-Nino could make a appearance in early 2017.
wouldn't count on it. probably cool neutral this year and warm neutral next year. personally don't see another el nino for a while
Here is the Conus forecast for today and the high temps: July and August are going to be very hot...............................


Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database
On a note related to global climate change, we had a visitor at the house yesterday (friend of a relative) who is moving to Texas for work (from Pennsylvania) and when I brought up the heat out there in Texas, he said it is nothing compared to his home country of Ghana, Africa.........................Right in the equatorial belt and he said that humidity and heat there has become pretty unbearable there in recent years as compared to a few decades ago due to heating issues.
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 050841
TCDEP3

HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 05 2016

Blas has continued to strengthen since the previous advisory. The
CDO has improved and the overall convective cloud pattern has
become more symmetrical. A ragged eye feature has been evident in
infrared imagery and is now completely surrounded by cloud tops
colder than -75C. Recent AMSU and ASCAT overpasses have helped
to place the center a little to the northeast of the positions noted
in conventional infrared imagery. The initial intensity has been
increased to 85 kt based on a blend of satellite intensity
estimates of T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and NHC objective intensities
ranging from T4.7-T5.0, and the continued improvement in the eye
pattern depicted in conventional and microwave satellite imagery.

Based primarily on microwave satellite fixes, Blas continues to move
west-northwestward or 285/12 kt. The hurricane is forecast to move
in a general west-northward direction throughout the forecast period
due to a strong deep-layer subtropical ridge remaining nearly
stationary to the north of Blas. The latest NHC global and regional
model guidance remains in excellent agreement on this stable
steering pattern, and the models are tightly packed around the
previous advisory track. Therefore, only minor tweaks were made, and
the new forecast track lies close to the consensus track model TVCE.

Blas has been rapidly strengthening over the past 24 hours, and an
additional 12 hours or so of significant strengthening is supported
by an expanding upper-level outflow pattern, low vertical wind shear
values decreasing to less than 5 kt by 12-24 hours, and a smaller
radius of maximum winds of about 15 nmi noted in recent ASCAT data.
Although vertical shear values are expected to remain low, by 36-48
hours Blas will be moving over SSTs near 26C and ocean heat content
values near zero, which should result in cooling of the ocean
beneath the hurricane and begin a slow weakening trend. By 72 hours
and beyond, Blas will be moving over even cooler water and into a
drier and more stable air mass, negative factors which should
combine to induce more significant weakening. The official intensity
forecast remains well above he consensus model IVCN and closely
follows the GFS-based LGEM statistical-dynamical intensity model,
which has thus far handled Blas' intensification trend the best.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 14.2N 118.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 14.5N 119.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 15.0N 122.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 15.4N 124.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 16.0N 126.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 17.2N 129.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 19.1N 133.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 20.7N 136.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Quoting 70. wunderweatherman123:

wouldn't count on it. probably cool neutral this year and warm neutral next year. personally don't see another el nino for a while



i would swich that around some it looks like we are in a warm neutral right now has well be heading in too a cool neutral later on when we get La-Nina later in the year EL nino is not coming back any time soon so you can for get about that part right now are heading for a cool neutral too a weak La-Nina later in the year


we are in a warm neutral right now
Quoting 69. yonzabam:



Pretty pathetic attempt at trolling, but at least you got this one in your keep net.


Not trying to troll although this is the first comment I have ever made that someone thought that...

Was just looking at STS's PDO/MJO comments.

In the prediction I made for this season I have slightly above average numbers so no, I don't think the ATL is dead. We just need a little patience. July 5th much? No need for the chart to be posted I hope.
Don't fall into despair, late July seems promising.

Quoting 77. elioe:

Don't fall into despair, late July seems promising.



probably an august dominated season.
Quoting 77. elioe:

Don't fall into despair, late July seems promising.




Agreed August and September has I been saying July will be all about the west and the eastern Pacific
CFS is thinking things start get a rolling late July-early August, meaning early and middle of July will be generally quiet.
We have a sheared swirl north of Puerto Rico
The Atlantic is deader than a doorknob right now
Quoting 80. Climate175:

CFS is thinking things start get a rolling late July-early August, meaning early and middle of July will be generally quiet.



In other word it agreeds on what I been saying
Quoting 79. Tazmanian:



Agreed August and September has I been saying July will be all about the west and the eastern Pacific


True, got to also be careful of trends too. Models keep delaying activity further and further down the road. It may be only be September if any month that see a lot activity. The MDR anomalies have flattened out to about .2 C over the last few months with little deviation; however, most of those positive anomalies are located in the central and western MDR. The Eastern MDR near Cape Verde has been below average for quite some time.



On a side note HWRF slams NEPARTAK into central Taiwan with a 897 mb pressure. 54 hours out.


GFS exact same path but weaker with 986 mb pressure. 60 hours out.


CMC has it has a 976 mb typhoon crossing the southern tip of Taiwan.
Never mind..It was suppose to be the WU sst map.
Still a busy season?
Dry again
Is it possible the region is just possibly in a extended quiet period?
Lingering effects of El Niño?
it's very hot and without sounding like a broken record it does seem to be getting hotter according to the elders here. So hotter doesn't always mean more storms or severity of storms in the near term anyway.
Of the likely tracks for Nepartak southern/central Taiwan is ideal. Mountains might tear it up and it would be weak headed into China. If it hits Taipei and then Shanghai that would be bad.

Question: will the flooding on the Yangtze have reached Shanghai by the end of the week?
AXNT20 KNHC 051115
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
715 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W, from 17N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate from 05N to 12N between 30W and 40W.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 61W, from 22N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. The wave is moving
toward the area of an upper level trough that extends from the
Atlantic Ocean near 21N62W, into the southeastern corner of the
Caribbean Sea. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from
15N southward between 60W and 63W.

An inland tropical wave is along 91W from 20N southward moving
westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. The wave extends from the western parts
of the Yucatan Peninsula, across Guatemala, into the eastern
Pacific Ocean. The monsoon trough is along 07N/08N from 85W
eastward. Convective precipitation: no significant deep convective
precipitation.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal border areas of
Senegal and Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W, to 10N25W 09N32W. No ITCZ
is apparent. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous
strong between 53W and 59W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 03N to 10N between 17W and 26W. Isolated moderate
elsewhere from 13N southward between Africa and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A northwest-to-southeast oriented upper level trough is in the
northeastern corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Convective
precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible
rainshowers from 24N to 29N between the northwestern Bahamas and
85W in the Gulf of Mexico.

A northwest-to-southeast oriented upper level trough is moving
through the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Convective
precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 17N inland in
the Isthmus of Tehuantepec to 20N between 93W and 96W.

A northwest-to-southeast oriented upper level trough is moving
through central Mexico.

A surface ridge passes through Florida near 27N/28N, just to the
north of Lake Okeechobee, through the central/south central Gulf
of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico near 22N.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KXIH and KMIS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR in Victoria and Angleton/Lake Jackson, and from the
Houston Intercontinental Airport to Conroe. LOUISIANA: MVFR at the
Slidell Airport, and at the NAS Joint Reserve Base in New Orleans.
MISSISSIPPI: light rain has ended for the moment in Pascagoula.
Alabama: MVFR at the Mobile Regional Airport, and at Fort Rucker.
FLORIDA: IFR in Crestview, Perry, and Brooksville. MVFR in Punta
Gorda.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS BETWEEN 50W AND 70W...INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

An upper level trough extends from a 21N62W Atlantic Ocean
cyclonic circulation center, through the northeastern corner of
the Caribbean Sea, to 17N64W, to 14N66W and 10N66W near the coast
of Venezuela. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in
water vapor satellite imagery, covering the Caribbean Sea from 14N
northward between 63W and the Windward Passage. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong in the
Atlantic Ocean from 21N to 23N between 60W and 65W. Isolated
moderate in the Caribbean Sea elsewhere from 15N northward between
60W and 70W.

Upper level NE to E wind flow and the comparatively drier air are covering
Hispaniola. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 18N to 19N
between 72W and 73W in southern Haiti. Rainshowers are moving from the
waters that are to the northeast of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands
toward those islands. Isolated moderate convective precipitation
from 20N northward between 80W and the Yucatan Peninsula, a bit to
the southeast of the northeastern Gulf of Mexico upper level
trough.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI as of
05/0000 UTC...VFR. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...Barahona: dust-
MVFR, and few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo: few
cumulonimbus/VFR/NO CEILINGS. La Romana: VFR/NO CEILINGS.
Punta Cana: nearby rainshowers. Santiago/Puerto Plata: VFR/NO
CEILINGS.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that the NE wind flow will
cover the area during day one. Variable southerly wind flow, from
the southeast and southwest at times, will cover the area during
day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that east-to-
northeast wind flow will be moving across Hispaniola for the next
48 hours. Hispaniola will be on the southern side of an Atlantic
Ocean ridge. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 MB shows that east-to-
southeast wind flow will cover the area for the next 48 hours.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
05/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.28 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.17 in Bermuda.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N18W to 26N25W, to 19N34W
and 10N43W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from
10N northward from 50W eastward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
20N northward between Africa and 80W. A surface ridge passes
through a 1026 MB that is near 34N27W, to a 1027 MB high pressure
center that is near 30N40W, to 28N57W, across the northwestern
Bahamas, and beyond Lake Okeechobee in south Florida.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANE WARNING WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
IMD is warning for its first Land Depression

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST July 5 2016
========================

Bay of Bengal & Andaman Sea
--------------------------------------
The low pressure area over Bihar & adjoining east Uttar Pradesh is concentrated into a well marked low pressure area over east Utter Pradesh adjoining Bihar.

The system is likely to further concentrate into a depression during next 24 hours.
Possible heat burst in progress at Lawton, Oklahoma. Data shows a huge drop in barometric pressure and dewpoint, with a large sudden increase in temperature. Winds relatively tame for a heat burst event. Radar shows collapsing showers in the vicinity.

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KFSI /2016/7/5/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Lawton&req_st ate=OK&reqdb.zip=73501&reqdb.magic=1&reqdb.wmo=999 99
China Meteorological Administration has upgraded to super typhoon. Forecast intensity is around 120 knots, it seems in the next 48 hours.

** WTPQ20 BABJ 051200 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SUPERTY NEPARTAK 1601 (1601) INITIAL TIME 051200 UTC
00HR 17.1N 133.6E 935HPA 52M/S
30KTS WINDS 350KM NORTHEAST
320KM SOUTHEAST
280KM SOUTHWEST
350KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 110KM NORTHEAST
100KM SOUTHEAST
80KM SOUTHWEST
80KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 40KM NORTHEAST
40KM SOUTHEAST
40KM SOUTHWEST
40KM NORTHWEST
MOVE NW 30KM/H
P+12HR 19.0N 130.2E 930HPA 55M/S
P+24HR 20.6N 127.2E 925HPA 58M/S
P+36HR 22.2N 124.6E 920HPA 60M/S
P+48HR 23.6N 122.7E 920HPA 60M/S
Quoting 60. MahFL:

Going to be a hot day today, it's not yet 8 am and it's 80F, 98F is forecast, my behind is staying in the a/c...
I'm with you, bro...

Quoting 88. 19N81W:

Still a busy season?
Dry again
Is it possible the region is just possibly in a extended quiet period?
Lingering effects of El Niño?
it's very hot and without sounding like a broken record it does seem to be getting hotter according to the elders here. So hotter doesn't always mean more storms or severity of storms in the near term anyway.
Don't forget "July stand by" is the old saying for a reason. I doubt you guys would get much rain this time of year regardless of the kind of season we get. I'm fairly confident we will see an upswing in moisture after July 21st, even if only in the form of p.m. showers....
Quoting 53. RobertWC:



Last month was the hottest June on record in Death Valley National Park, with a sweltering average temperature of 101.9 degrees. June 2016’s temperatures exceeded average June temperatures by about 6 degrees.

The average of 95.5 degrees had been recorded over the past 105 years. Official weather observations have been recorded at Furnace Creek since 1911.

Death Valley’s average daily high temperature this June was 115.5 degrees and the average overnight low was 88.2 degrees. In spite of a record-setting average temperature, Death Valley only set a new daily record one day last month, with 126 degrees recorded on June 21.


Link



Obviously, the urban heat island effect. /sarc
96. IDTH
Quoting 65. StormTrackerScott:

Major PDO across the Pacific continues to diminish the chances of La-Nina. As I have said many times this is 2014 but for the opposite reasons. 2014 record warm pool but atmosphere couldn't respond. 2016 impressive cold pool but the PDO is choking off any attempt for La-Nina to get going. I called this back earlier this year that the PDO is going to have a major role in ENSO forecast this year leading to major bust in global models.



This is just ridiculous! I'm sorry I never thought I'd be the one to call someone out on a topic like this considering my lack of credibility but if you've been keeping up with the sst's and how they've fluctuated in the nino regions, you would know that it is not the PDO causing this but rather the convectively coupled kelvin wave that tracked from the indian ocean across the world which led to stronger westerlies and decreasing trade winds, causing warming to occur in the nino regions.

The cold tongue of water is still there, it hasn't gone away and it has been delayed getting to the surface because of the weaker trade winds. When the trade winds were much stronger earlier in June the east pacific was in a sinking phase and the cooling was much more rapid. It has since been slowed due to not the PDO but rather the weaker trade winds. As I've been told by countless people on this blog, the ENSO doesn't respond to the PDO and we can have a LA nina with a warm PDO.

I may have not explained this as well as other people may have but I tried.
Blas appears just under major hurricane intensity this morning, but should be there by the next advisory:



Typhoon Nepartak has rapidly intensified and appears in the ballpark of 130-135kt:



In two days, the HWRF model has Nepatark as this monster just before making landfall. Just imagine how much damage this could cause.
Quoting 61. MahFL:

Well the MJO forecast changed 100 % from last weeks forecast, now not favorable in the Atlantic.






Not surprised. And of course not a drop fell last night.
Not weather related, but I bet this will make some feel very old. I know it's basic math, but I just can't get my head around this.
Quoting 77. elioe:

Don't fall into despair, late July seems promising.




Then the forecast will switch to unfavorable in a few days. There is no more hope.
Blas is rapidly intensifying.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hw rf/2016070506/hwrf_mslp_wind_02W_18.png
Blas will reach a peak of 140 miles per hour.


El Nino effects remain... no rain, struggling wave killed by dry air and shear.

DMAX did absolutely nothing for us!
Somehow my earlier comment got lost, but here :



Shows why we are not expecting more than a passing shower this afternoon....
14 years


Quoting 100. Climate175:

Not weather related, but I bet this will make some feel very old. I know it's basic math, but I just can't get my head around this.
WP022016 - Typhoon (>=96 kt) NEPARTAK

2 km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

Click Image for loop.

108. Kyon5
Quoting 104. CaribBoy:



El Nino effects remain... no rain, struggling wave killed by dry air and shear.

DMAX did absolutely nothing for us!
It's only early July and the whole season lies ahead. These conditions are normal for this time of the year and will become more favorable once we head into August. Patience is a virtue.
tw northeast of PRico is flaring up. eventually the weak disturbance is suppose to be near se. florida
111. IDTH
Quoting 109. washingtonian115:

Eh?


More like hmmmmmmm
Euro appears to spin up a storm over the gulf stream and brings into N.C as a intensifying T.S.GFS tries to spin up a T.S in the MDR come late July so the season is not over by a long shot.

(click to enlarge)
Another milestone is passed for SLS Orion.



June 28, 2016
Booster Test for Space Launch System Rocket


The second and final qualification motor (QM-2) test for the Space Launch System’s booster is seen, Tuesday, June 28, 2016, at Orbital ATK Propulsion Systems test facilities in Promontory, Utah. During the Space Launch System flight the boosters will provide more than 75 percent of the thrust needed to escape the gravitational pull of the Earth, the first step on NASA’s Journey to Mars.

The booster was tested at a cold motor conditioning target of 40 degrees Fahrenheit –the colder end of its accepted propellant temperature range. When ignited, temperatures inside the booster reached nearly 6,000 degrees. The two-minute, full-duration ground qualification test provided NASA with critical data on 82 qualification objectives that will support certification of the booster for flight. Engineers now will evaluate these data, captured by more than 530 instrumentation channels on the booster.

Photo Credit: (NASA/Bill Ingalls)
117. IDTH
The Gulf of mexico is running way above average this year with plenty of areas of 30 degree Celsius waters. Hopefully nothing makes it into the gulf come peak of the season.

Currently 93 here..,. That's pretty hot for us....
its awful....finally someone is stepping up and acknowledging the reality
Quoting 101. CaribBoy:



Then the forecast will switch to unfavorable in a few days. There is no more hope.
Quoting 100. Climate175:

Not weather related, but I bet this will make some feel very old. I know it's basic math, but I just can't get my head around this.
Don't Blink.. This makes me think of Dr Who. “People assume that time is a strict progression of cause to effect, but actually, from a nonlinear, non-subjective viewpoint, it's more like a big ball of wibbly-wobbly, timey-wimey ... stuff.” What happened 14 years ago is kept in the present (memories), what will happen in 2030 is still 14 years away ;-)
Quoting 110. islander101010:

tw northeast of PRico is flaring up. eventually the weak disturbance is suppose to be near se. florida
Pity that flare up isn't over the ne CAR... they could use the precipitation.....
Quoting 120. 19N81W:

its awful....finally someone is stepping up and acknowledging the reality



Reality..........

Nepartak is likely at, or very near, category 5 intensity right now.
Heat Warning in effect for:
•City of Toronto

Temperatures are expected to be near 31 degrees today through Thursday with overnight lows of near 20, providing little relief from the heat during this timeframe.

Current indications suggest that this heat episode will mainly affect the Golden Horseshoe area.

While heat can put everyone at risk from heat illnesses, health risks are greatest for
- older adults;
- infants and young children;
- people with chronic illnesses such as breathing difficulties, heart conditions or psychiatric illnesses;
- people who work in the heat;
- people who exercise in the heat;
- homeless people; and
- people without access to air conditioning.

Drink plenty of liquids especially water before you feel thirsty to decrease your risk of dehydration. Thirst is not a good indicator of dehydration.

Heat warnings are issued when very high temperature or humidity conditions are expected to pose an elevated risk of heat illnesses, such as heat stroke or heat exhaustion.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport

Date:

12:00 PM EDT Tuesday 5 July 2016

Temperature:

85.1°F

Dewpoint:

56.5°F

Humidity:

37%

Wind:

WSW 9 gust 18 mph

Humidex:

91
Quoting 122. BahaHurican:

Pity that flare up isn't over the ne CAR... they could use the precipitation.....


Obviously....

Quoting 120. 19N81W:

its awful....finally someone is stepping up and acknowledging the reality

The reality has been acknowledged and accepted: to wit, no serious precipitation events expected until the end of the month .... it's just that the rest of us have not been complaining about it....

Meanwhile we watch the potential disaster of EXCESS water unfolding in the WPAC.....
Not to rub salt in anybody's wound but I had a very heavy rain earlier this morning that woke me up.Looked like a monsoon outside as the rain was coming down.

Orleans Parish Severe Watches & WarningsNOAA Weather Radio

Watches & WarningsHeat AdvisoryIssued: 3:35 AM CDT Jul. 5, 2016 – National Weather Service

... Heat advisory in effect from 10 am this morning to 7 PM CDT
this evening...

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a heat
advisory... which is in effect from 10 am this morning to 7 PM CDT
this evening.

* Temperature... heat index values of 105 to 110 degrees

* impacts... heat stress will reach dangerous levels and could
lead to heat exhaustion or heat stroke.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A heat advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids... stay in an air-conditioned
room... stay out of the sun... and check up on relatives and
neighbors.

   Take extra precautions... if you work or spend time outside.
When possible... reschedule strenuous activities to early morning
or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and
heat stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when
possible and drink plenty of water.

   To reduce risk during outdoor work... the occupational safety
and health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest
breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome
by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat
stroke is an emergency... call 9 1 1.





132. IDTH

Daily CO2

July 4, 2016: 406.03 ppm

July 4, 2015: 401.76 ppm
Quoting 112. washingtonian115:

Euro appears to spin up a storm over the gulf stream and brings into N.C as a intensifying T.S.GFS tries to spin up a T.S in the MDR come late July so the season is not over by a long shot.
What I can take from the long range GFS with not looking at individuals storms, is that the waves start getting more robust right after the 20th.
Quoting 92. ClimateChange:

Possible heat burst in progress at Lawton, Oklahoma. Data shows a huge drop in barometric pressure and dewpoint, with a large sudden increase in temperature. Winds relatively tame for a heat burst event. Radar shows collapsing showers in the vicinity.

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KFSI /2016/7/5/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Lawton&re q_st ate=OK&reqdb.zip=73501&reqdb.magic=1&r eqdb.wmo=999 99

More like the passage of the dryline which is indicated on the current weather charts.
Quoting 130. washingtonian115:

Not to rub salt in anybody's wound but I had a very heavy rain earlier this morning that woke me up.Looked like a monsoon outside as the rain was coming down.
Y'all been having a goodly amount of rain so far this summer... sure it's not helping the humidity much ... lol
Quoting 134. Climate175:

What I can take from the long range GFS with not looking at individuals storms, is that the waves start getting more robust right after the 20th.
Sounds about right. That would coincide with the revised arrival of the MJO and be in line with climatology.....

Blas looks really nice, I'm surprised it wasn't upgraded to a major with the latest advisory, but with 110 mph winds, it will be the next one for sure. Also, Nepartak is exploding right now in the WPac, expect it to be the first cat 5 of the WPac season.

Something else...while yesterday was America's 240th birthday, today is the 100th anniversary of something else, the 1916 Alabama/Missisippi major hurricane, if memory serves:

At the time, this storm marked the earliest date in the year for a major hurricane hit the U.S, until Hurricane Audrey broke it in 1957. It was also the last major hurricane to hit Alabama until Hurricane Frederic in 1979.

EDIT: Sorry, meant to modify this comment, not quote it.
Quoting 117. IDTH:

The Gulf of mexico is running way above average this year with plenty of areas of 30 degree Celsius waters. Hopefully nothing makes it into the gulf come peak of the season.




We'll most likely see several systems enter the GOM this season (T.S. Colin already gave it a go). But even with 86 degree water (on average) across most the GOM, it's not all that favorable for development (back to T.S. Colin again for an example).

It's really going to come down to how favorable the upper level environment becomes later in the season. Currently, conditions across the tropical Atlantic and GOM are not all that favorable for development. Most areas are either too dry or there is a lot of shear (or a combination of both).

Celia is on the way.
Quoting 134. Climate175:

What I can take from the long range GFS with not looking at individuals storms, is that the waves start getting more robust right after the 20th.

Next Full Moon is the Buck Moon of July 2016 after 4 days on 19 July 2016 at 22:57 sounds about right for the pickup in activity 2016 after 5 days on 18 August 2016 at 09:27.
that will be the start of peak season till mid September fall or harvest moon sept 16
3 moons to go


lol
143. IDTH

my cycling computer read 105 on my ride today through sheldon park in texas. thats hot!
I figure a couple of homegrown July storms and then I can't even guess what Aug - Oct brings. My fear is that waves ride low and limp through the MDR only to get juiced in or around the GOM and/or Bahamas. Or we get a few Joaquins and chances are one of them is going to make landfall on the CONUS. The Atlantic ridge that is currently pumping heat into my neck of the woods has got me concerned.

Hot as hades in SC. High humidity. Actual Temps later this week will probably be 105F+ in some of the hotter spots (Columbia). Guessing we may see some 115-120F heat indices. Good thing is we have been getting regular rain. Adds to the humidity but at least the vegetation is not stressed.

Washi, the family and I did DC a couple of weekends ago along with Gettysburg (my fav). I wish all cities had the Metro.

Quoting 109. washingtonian115:

Eh?

Typhoon Nepartak is rapidly intensifying and likely a super typhoon by now.
BRING IT ON, STORM GOD!!!!!!!!


SPC AC 051726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2016

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN/WRN SD AND NRN NEB...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MID-MS/LOWER OH VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS LARGE PART OF CNTRL STATES...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...INTENSE WIND
GUSTS...AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA...BEGINNING
AFTER 4 PM MDT ON WEDNESDAY.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL PROGRESS EAST TO
THE MT/ND/SK BORDER AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY. A WEST/EAST-ORIENTED
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIE ACROSS SOUTHERN SD
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A DRYLINE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. FARTHER SOUTHEAST...AN MCV GENERATED BY D1 CONVECTION
SHOULD SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST/LOWER OH
VALLEY.

...SD/NEB...
A NARROW PLUME OF MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS IS
EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED BETWEEN A DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR MASS NORTH
OF THE FRONT AND A DEEPLY MIXED/HOT AIR MASS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES
WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO LARGE BUOYANCY. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
ACROSS THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL YIELD A STRENGTHENING
BAROCLINIC ZONE LATE DAY. IN CONJUNCTION WITH A 45-55 KT 500-MB JET
STREAK AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING WY/SD...SETUP WILL BE
QUITE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS FORMING IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING NEAR THE BLACK HILLS AND MT/WY/SD BORDER
AREA. ALL HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS INITIAL
ACTIVITY...INCLUDING A RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. STORM-SCALE
CONSOLIDATION SHOULD YIELD UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A
EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD-PROPAGATING MCS DURING THE EVENING APPROACHING
PROGRESSIVELY RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEB
AND SOUTHERN SD. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS /A FEW OF WHICH MAY
BE INTENSE/ SHOULD INCREASE AS THIS OCCURS. STRENGTHENING MLCIN IN
TIME AND EASTWARD EXTENT RENDERS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGEVITY
OF A SEVERE RISK ACROSS THE MID-MO VALLEY OVERNIGHT.

...MID-MS TO LOWER OH VALLEY...
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A REMNANT MCV THAT INITIATES
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON D1 WITH AN ATTENDANT BELT OF ENHANCED
LOW/MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES. DIFFERENCES DO EXISTS IN THE AMPLITUDE OF
FLOW AS WELL AS IN SPATIOTEMPORAL ASPECTS OF THE MCV EVOLUTION
/TYPICAL OF BELOW-AVERAGE MESOSCALE PREDICTABILITY FOR THIS TIME
FRAME/. NEVERTHELESS...IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT DIABATIC HEATING TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF LINGERING EARLY-DAY CONVECTION AMID LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD YIELD POCKETS OF STRONG
BUOYANCY. MULTIPLE MULTICELL CLUSTERS SHOULD FORM AS THIS OCCURS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE MCV WITH A PRIMARY RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS.


..GRAMS.. 07/05/2016
Quoting 104. CaribBoy:



El Nino effects remain... no rain, struggling wave killed by dry air and shear.

DMAX did absolutely nothing for us!
we got some showers from that wave. Quite refreshing
CaribBoy take heart, you will get your showers soon enough. Good day the sun is out and life goes on. Anyway I have a question for anyone. What's the difference between weather and climate? Have a great day.
The crash of Nature -

Turtle herpes outbreak hints at Great Barrier Reef contamination

It’s a turtle tragedy. Tumours are crippling an increasing number of green sea turtles on Australia’s Great Barrier Reef, with pollution being investigated as the prime culprit.

The animals have a turtle-specific herpesvirus that causes fibropapillomatosis – a condition in which disfiguring tumours grow on the eyes, flippers, tail, shell or internal organs.

“The tumours are benign but can grow up to 30 centimetres in size and block the turtles’ vision, says Karina Jones of James Cook University in Townsville, Australia. “This means they can’t find food or see predators or boats.”

Turtles with tumours are also more vulnerable to other infections, she says. “Severely affected turtles are quite skinny and have other pathogens affecting them – that’s why they die.”


Link
Quoting 148. wadadlian:

What's the difference between weather and climate?


Joking Definition: Weather is Weather and Climate is Climate!
My Definition: Don't have one.
Yes it is! I blew a tube on the road bike yesterday. Always like those tires to be 110 psi. Kaboom! Luckily it was the front and I was near some shade for the change out. Did have some folks stop and check on me which is always a good feeling.

Quoting 144. mcdsara1:

my cycling computer read 105 on my ride today through sheldon park in texas. thats hot!
Quoting 96. IDTH:


This is just ridiculous! I'm sorry I never thought I'd be the one to call someone out on a topic like this considering my lack of credibility but if you've been keeping up with the sst's and how they've fluctuated in the nino regions, you would know that it is not the PDO causing this but rather the convectively coupled kelvin wave that tracked from the indian ocean across the world which led to stronger westerlies and decreasing trade winds, causing warming to occur in the nino regions.

The cold tongue of water is still there, it hasn't gone away and it has been delayed getting to the surface because of the weaker trade winds. When the trade winds were much stronger earlier in June the east pacific was in a sinking phase and the cooling was much more rapid. It has since been slowed due to not the PDO but rather the weaker trade winds. As I've been told by countless people on this blog, the ENSO doesn't respond to the PDO and we can have a LA nina with a warm PDO.

I may have not explained this as well as other people may have but I tried.


You can clearly see the eddies mixing the PDO water with the wanna-be La Nina pool and diluting it. To say the PDO has no effect on the budding La Nina is a little ignorant if you ask me.
Yeah you can have La Nina with a positive PDO, but no one has EVER seen a PDO this strong for a start and to speculate that millions of square miles of 1-2C+ warmer water is having no effect on the ENSO or the atmospheric state is jumping to uninspired conclusion. It's not just a CCKW, there are far larger factors influencing the current climactic state.
ENSO does respond to PDO forcing just as PDO responds to ENSO forcing.
The PDO is a slow moving, large-scale wave, just like ENSO, just like a CCKW but a much vaster, much more complicated pattern that we don't really understand.
Everything is connected.
Just because the ATL is having a inactive phase isn't reason to throw your toys out of the crib.
Quoting 82. washingtonian115:

The Atlantic is deader than a doorknob right now


This is more active than the Atlantic Ocean...
Quoting 96. IDTH:


This is just ridiculous! I'm sorry I never thought I'd be the one to call someone out on a topic like this considering my lack of credibility but if you've been keeping up with the sst's and how they've fluctuated in the nino regions, you would know that it is not the PDO causing this but rather the convectively coupled kelvin wave that tracked from the indian ocean across the world which led to stronger westerlies and decreasing trade winds, causing warming to occur in the nino regions.

The cold tongue of water is still there, it hasn't gone away and it has been delayed getting to the surface because of the weaker trade winds. When the trade winds were much stronger earlier in June the east pacific was in a sinking phase and the cooling was much more rapid. It has since been slowed due to not the PDO but rather the weaker trade winds. As I've been told by countless people on this blog, the ENSO doesn't respond to the PDO and we can have a LA nina with a warm PDO.

I may have not explained this as well as other people may have but I tried.


Yeah you are ridiculous and you post has little research. The record PDO across the Pacific has caused a major problem for ENSO forecast and people on this blog can't seem to accept this. The PDO is what is causing the weaker trades to occur as there are warm sea surface anomalies in areas north and south of where we would see La-Nina begin to take shape thus choking off this event by creating weaker trades. What we will likely see going forward is pretty much what we have currently but once the cooler months arrive it is possible for El-Nino to pick up steam again come early next year. CFSv2 along with the Euro are now beginning to see this scenario.

To be honest to appears the train has left for the La-Nina prospects it appears. A La-Nina has never occurred with a PDO of this magnitude. Have they occurred with warm PDO's before yes but not on this level NO.

CFS
155. elioe
Quoting 148. wadadlian:

What's the difference between weather and climate?


Climate is the statistics combined from weather. Weather is the realization from probabilities in climate.
Quoting 152. EyewallPaul:



You can clearly see the eddies mixing the PDO water with the wanna-be La Nina pool and diluting it. To say the PDO has no effect on the budding La Nina is a little ignorant if you ask me.
Yeah you can have La Nina with a positive PDO, but no one has EVER seen a PDO this strong for a start and to speculate that millions of square miles of 1-2C+ warmer water is having no effect on the ENSO or the atmospheric state is jumping to uninspired conclusion. It's not just a CCKW, there are far larger factors influencing the current climactic state.
ENSO does respond to PDO forcing just as PDO responds to ENSO forcing.
The PDO is a slow moving, large-scale wave, just like ENSO, just like a CCKW but a much vaster, much more complicated pattern that we don't really understand.
Everything is connected.
Just because the ATL is having a inactive phase isn't reason to throw your toys out of the crib.


Exactly. This magnitude of PDO has never been seen with a La-Nina. With warm water surrounding areas where La-Nina would occur is essentially choking off the La-Nina from getting fully entrenched.
66 million dead trees in California could fuel 'catastrophic' wildfires, officials say
Trees are dying at an ‘unprecedented’ rate due to drought, warmer weather and a bark beetle epidemic, prompting the US agriculture secretary’s warning.

Link

to see this in person is an unbelievable sight
i deflate a little bit in the heat, the tires get hot from the road and rolling. fronts seem to be easier to change than rear, which is why my rear tires keep blowing. ride safe!

Quoting 151. HaoleboySurfEC:

Yes it is! I blew a tube on the road bike yesterday. Always like those tires to be 110 psi. Kaboom! Luckily it was the front and I was near some shade for the change out. Did have some folks stop and check on me which is always a good feeling.


Quoting 145. HaoleboySurfEC:

I figure a couple of homegrown July storms and then I can't even guess what Aug - Oct brings. My fear is that waves ride low and limp through the MDR only to get juiced in or around the GOM and/or Bahamas. Or we get a few Joaquins and chances are one of them is going to make landfall on the CONUS. The Atlantic ridge that is currently pumping heat into my neck of the woods has got me concerned.

Hot as hades in SC. High humidity. Actual Temps later this week will probably be 105F+ in some of the hotter spots (Columbia). Guessing we may see some 115-120F heat indices. Good thing is we have been getting regular rain. Adds to the humidity but at least the vegetation is not stressed.

Washi, the family and I did DC a couple of weekends ago along with Gettysburg (my fav). I wish all cities had the Metro.


That's wonderful to hear! Our metro system isn't perfect by any means but it does come in handy when you need to get around the city because parking is expensive and a pain.I hope our area showed you good hospitality! As for the Euro T.S it has the low coming off the U.S and dives it south near Florida and brings in back up towards N.C just like Arthur from 2014.
It seems that ever since the hurricane seasons of 2005 and 2008, some people on this blog think that the Atlantic should be having "Berthas" and "Emilys" roaming the basin during July. But keep in mind having this quiet lull is normal for early July. Look no further to 1998, 2004 and 2010, which featured inactive Julys, but then August came along and it was storm after storm in each of those seasons. We just need a little patience :-)
Mid level low north of PR is producing disorganized thunderstorms, I would like to see shear die down before consideration for development occurs.
RI in progress with Typhoon Nepartak. 140 mph is likely conservative at this time.
Quoting 163. Huracan94:

RI in progress with Typhoon Nepartak. 140 mph is likely conservative at this time.



looks more like a moderate Cat 5

Nepartak

About 18 inches of rain fell in Macheng, China, in the four days ending 8 a.m. local time on Monday, said weather.com meteorologist Chris Dolce.

Link
Quoting 164. Articuno:



looks more like a moderate Cat 5

I'd say winds are around 165-175 mph at this point. Not looking good for anyone in its path no doubt.
Quoting 154. StormTrackerScott:



Yeah you are ridiculous and you post has little research. The record PDO across the Pacific has caused a major problem for ENSO forecast and people on this blog can't seem to accept this. The PDO is what is causing the weaker trades to occur as there are warm sea surface anomalies in areas north and south of where we would see La-Nina begin to take shape thus choking off this event by creating weaker trades. What we will likely see going forward is pretty much what we have currently but once the cooler months arrive it is possible for El-Nino to pick up steam again come early next year. CFSv2 along with the Euro are now beginning to see this scenario.

To be honest to appears the train has left for the La-Nina prospects it appears. A La-Nina has never occurred with a PDO of this magnitude. Have they occurred with warm PDO's before yes but not on this level NO.

CFS


"People on this blog can't seem to accept this" because the ENSO leads the PDO, not the other way around. This year's weak La Nina is still on track, with temporary hiccups as MJO pulses/kelvin waves move through to relax the stronger easterly trades. But that was expected by most who understand the evolution of La Nina...
170. IDTH
Quoting 154. StormTrackerScott:



Yeah you are ridiculous and you post has little research. The record PDO across the Pacific has caused a major problem for ENSO forecast and people on this blog can't seem to accept this. The PDO is what is causing the weaker trades to occur as there are warm sea surface anomalies in areas north and south of where we would see La-Nina begin to take shape thus choking off this event by creating weaker trades. What we will likely see going forward is pretty much what we have currently but once the cooler months arrive it is possible for El-Nino to pick up steam again come early next year. CFSv2 along with the Euro are now beginning to see this scenario.

To be honest to appears the train has left for the La-Nina prospects it appears. A La-Nina has never occurred with a PDO of this magnitude. Have they occurred with warm PDO's before yes but not on this level NO.

CFS


So why isn't this having an effect when the trades begin to pick back up again? Again I'm no expert but the PDO is not the problem and has never shown to have an effect on the ENSO. The waters have warmed because of the weakening trades not the "Super" PDO.

I'm done having this discussion with you.
Wait for August, wait for August, wait for August...
If there is a weak La Niña this year it could mean still above avg for winter storms for the southeast?
173. IDTH
Quoting 170. IDTH:


So why isn't this having an effect when the trades begin to pick back up again? Again I'm no expert but the PDO is not the problem and has never shown to have an effect on the ENSO. The waters have warmed because of the weakening trades not the "Super" PDO.

I'm done having this discussion with you.

One last thing to add, get ready for a trade surge to occur over the central pacific as the Euro ensembles are hinting at one in the medium range forecast. That means get ready for the cooling to become more pronounced again over the nino regions.

Now I'm done.
Quoting 165. Patrap:


Nepartak




Reminds me Megi in 2010.

Quoting 172. Accu3535:

If there is a weak La Niña this year it could mean still above avg for winter storms for the southeast?


No El Ninos lead to SE winter storms, La Ninas lead to Miller Bs that favor the Northeastern US, especially the New England region.
For what it's worth, the first storm of the season forms on July 9th on average and we've already had 4 storms. Not to mention the peak of the season is usually from Mid-August to Mid-October.
Quoting 176. Envoirment:

For what it's worth, the first storm of the season forms on July 9th on average and we've already had 4 storms. Not to mention the peak of the season is usually from Mid-August to Mid-October.

I can't imagine what this blog would have been like back in 2004, when Alex didn't form until July 31. We know how the season progressed after that point.
Quoting 169. TropicalAnalystwx13:


"People on this blog can't seem to accept this" because the ENSO leads the PDO, not the other way around. This year's weak La Nina is still on track, with temporary hiccups as MJO pulses/kelvin waves move through to relax the stronger easterly trades. But that was expected by most who understand the evolution of La Nina...
Quoting 173. IDTH:


One last thing to add, get ready for a trade surge to occur over the central pacific as the Euro ensembles are hinting at one in the medium range forecast. That means get ready for the cooling to become more pronounced again over the nino regions.

Now I'm done.
It will fall on death ears...
179. IDTH
Quoting 178. washingtonian115:

It will fall on death years...

Probably.
Quoting 157. Patrap:




Send some of that rain our way, we need something to cool us off!
Quoting 177. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I can't imagine what this blog would have been like back in 2004, when Alex didn't form until July 31. We know how the season progressed after that point.


That would have been interesting to watch. Especially Jeanne and Frances. The fact that they made landfall within 6 miles of each other would have thrown the blog into a frenzy. I will say Frances down here was the more impactful storm due to the angle which it came in. I remember my family drove to have dinner with relatives in Broward during Jeanne and the weather was nothing crazy hardly any strong wind and moderate rainfall.
Quoting 158. 3SeaHorses:

66 million dead trees in California could fuel 'catastrophic' wildfires, officials say
Trees are dying at an ‘unprecedented’ rate due to drought, warmer weather and a bark beetle epidemic, prompting the US agriculture secretary’s warning.

Link

to see this in person is an unbelievable sight


They should let lumber companies in to cut the trees down and process them for lumber before the trees start to rot. This would help reduce lumber costs for new construction and reduce the risk of an out of control wild fire.
Nepartak





Hurricane BLAS
As of 18:00 UTC Jul 05, 2016:

Location: 14.2°N 120.3°W
Maximum Winds: 105 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 958 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 250 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 15 NM
Eye Diameter: N/A

64 kt Wind Radii by Quadrant:

Blas is the 1st major hurricane of season and the 1st major hurricane and strongest hurricane in the basin since Hurricane Sandra, Nov 2015.

Blas reminds me a lot of Iselle, looks like that wanna be an annular hurricane!



Quoting 186. pablosyn:

Hurricane BLAS
As of 18:00 UTC Jul 05, 2016:

Location: 14.2°N 120.3°W
Maximum Winds: 105 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 958 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 250 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 15 NM
Eye Diameter: N/A

64 kt Wind Radii by Quadrant:

Blas is the 1st major hurricane of season and the 1st major hurricane and strongest hurricane in the basin since Hurricane Sandra, Nov 2015.

Blas reminds me a lot of Iselle, looks like that wanna be an annular hurricane!






You mean hurricane Isabel 2003
The new Euro is out and it still calls for a T.S to affect eastern N.C.I'm only taking notice because this is the Euro and it is usually very conservative when it comes to tropical genesis.
Mid level low is developing centralized organized convection now, I think the surface low is developing now.
Quoting 153. PedleyCA:


This is more active than the Atlantic Ocean...


Hey Ped, today they put up heat advisories in south Florida(Palm Beach County) . The HI has been nearing 110 degrees today. How is the weather on your side?
02W NEPARTAK
As of 18:00 UTC Jul 05, 2016:

Location: 18.0N 131.8E
Maximum Winds: 130 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 926 mb

Really JTWC? 130 kt? Come on, please!

Center Temp : 19.7C Cloud Region Temp : -78.2C



192. vis0

Quoting 162. TheDawnAwakening:

Mid level low north of PR is producing disorganized thunderstorms, I would like to see shear die down before consideration for development occurs.
your command is my wish - TS aficionados
If Nepartak doesn't briefly weaken before approach to Taiwan and then the Chinese Coast, how strong of a storm are we potentially looking at?
194. vis0

Quoting 82. washingtonian115:

The Atlantic is deader than a doorknob right now

...do i hear couple/some hinges squeaking?
Quoting 193. DeepSeaRising:

If Nepartak doesn't briefly weaken before approach to Taiwan and then the Chinese Coast, how strong of a storm are we potentially looking at?

Category 3 or 4 equivalent in the US system.
196. Tcwx2

Yes please, the blog needs this soooooooo...ooooooo bad!!! Another home-grown storm would be nice. I think we'll begin to see an uptick in activity beginning with this.
Quoting 195. birdsrock2016:


Category 3 or 4 equivalent in the US system.


Models are showing category high end four or five at this point at landfall. Some expected weakening before RI before landfall. I'm asking what happens if Nepartak doesn't weaken as forecast.
Quoting 187. TheDawnAwakening:



You mean hurricane Isabel 2003


No, he meant Iselle:



Quoting 193. DeepSeaRising:

If Nepartak doesn't briefly weaken before approach to Taiwan and then the Chinese Coast, how strong of a storm are we potentially looking at?

Satellite presentation supports a 150kt+ storm at the current time. We should see fluctuations over the coming days because of inner core processes, but we'll probably still be dealing with a Cat 3 or 4 as it scrapes/makes landfall in Taiwan.
199. vis0

Quoting 82. washingtonian115:

The Atlantic is deader than a doorknob right now

...do i hear couple/some hinges squeaking? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Quoting 197. DeepSeaRising:



Models are showing category high end four or five at this point at landfall. Some expected weakening before RI before landfall. I'm asking what happens if Nepartak doesn't weaken as forecast.


Then the wind field will get larger and China and Korea could be at risk from the bands/ rain.
Quoting 200. birdsrock2016:



Then the wind field will get larger and China and Korea could be at risk from the bands/ rain.


Could be a very narrow miss for China. Models have it barely offshore of China.
Will Nepartak stay this small and amazingly compact to be carrying so some much atmosphere as an overall system, or will we see a new eye form over the next 24 hours and some weakening because of all the overall weight Nepartak carries? Amazing little system, wonder what it's going to do? Would be great if it just misses Taiwan and then curves before impact with China. Going to be a close call.
Quoting 202. DeepSeaRising:

Will Nepartak stay this small and amazingly compact to be carrying so some much atmosphere as an overall system, or will we see a new eye form over the next 24 hours and some weakening because of all the overall weight Nepartak carries? Amazing little system, wonder what it's going to do? Would be great if it just misses Taiwan and then curves before impact with China. Going to be a close call.


Can you explain what you mean by weight? I think we will see a new eye, the current one is very small and that is hard to maintain
Quoting 190. birdsrock2016:



Hey Ped, today they put up heat advisories in south Florida(Palm Beach County) . The HI has been nearing 110 degrees today. How is the weather on your side?



Much cooler, I have no cooling in use right now.
Quoting 186. pablosyn:

Hurricane BLAS
As of 18:00 UTC Jul 05, 2016:

Location: 14.2°N 120.3°W
Maximum Winds: 105 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 958 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 250 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 15 NM
Eye Diameter: N/A

64 kt Wind Radii by Quadrant:

Blas is the 1st major hurricane of season and the 1st major hurricane and strongest hurricane in the basin since Hurricane Sandra, Nov 2015.

Blas reminds me a lot of Iselle, looks like that wanna be an annular hurricane!






So. Why was the Blond throwing Prozac in the ocean?

She heard it had the Blas.

Cheers
Qazulight
Quoting 204. PedleyCA:



Much cooler, I have no cooling in use right now.


Hasn't dipped below 80 here in a couple days. Thankfully my ac is working full speed ahead now. Some parts of Texas are starting to resemble that tumbleweed picture already. Nothing like that here. Maybe a tropical rainforest would be more apt. :)
A little off topic, but the SPC has upgraded to a moderate risk for potential wind damage across parts of the upper Midwest this afternoon. An MCS has already formed and has the potential to produce a derecho event, as noted in the SPC 20z discussion.

That blob in the caribbean looks like it has an LLC... Think it's being sheared though.
Good to have a couple intense storms to track after a very slow start to the year globally. Great outflow shown here on Blas:

Quoting 206. AtHomeInTX:



Hasn't dipped below 80 here in a couple days. Thankfully my ac is working full speed ahead now. Some parts of Texas are starting to resemble that tumbleweed picture already. Nothing like that here. Maybe a tropical rainforest would be more apt. :)


Only 79.2 here right now, WU forecast is for 86 today.
Quoting 206. AtHomeInTX:



Hasn't dipped below 80 here in a couple days. Thankfully my ac is working full speed ahead now. Some parts of Texas are starting to resemble that tumbleweed picture already. Nothing like that here. Maybe a tropical rainforest would be more apt. :)


The heat is on in NW Florida too, every morning at daybreak temps are hovering right around 80 with high humidity, glad my A/C is working good too! Daytimes highs are in the low 90's with heat indexes 100-105.
Typhoon Nepartak is now a Super Typhoon with 150mph winds. Latest forecast from JTWC has it reaching ~165mph:



Massive uncertainty in the track to some extent though.
Quoting 199. vis0:


...do i hear couple/some hinges squeaking? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Quiet as its ever going to be. :/
OUCH.
Main complex of storms in Minnesota is already moving at around 40mph and produced a confirmed tornado. It's in a sweet spot, derecho could certainly take place and this line will increase in speed to 50-60 mphs by later evening. Could see 70-90 mph winds possibly. Storm has been tornado warned for awhile now.
Quoting 204. PedleyCA:



Much cooler, I have no cooling in use right now.


Enjoy it while it lasts.
Quoting 211. 69Viking:



The heat is on in NW Florida too, every morning at daybreak temps are hovering right around 80 with high humidity, glad my A/C is working good too! Daytimes highs are in the low 90's with heat indexes 100-105.


Today the HI in Palm Beach cOunty (Boca Raton, FL) reached 110 degrees with highs up to 97 degrees today. Man ,it's hot today!
Quoting 211. 69Viking:



The heat is on in NW Florida too, every morning at daybreak temps are hovering right around 80 with high humidity, glad my A/C is working good too! Daytimes highs are in the low 90's with heat indexes 100-105.


Sounds like here. Ugh! I'm in the farthest se county of Texas bordering Louisiana. Our temps usually don't get as high as the rest of the state. But even at that have been running above normal in low to mid 90s. It's our humidity that does us in. Now it's 93. Dew point 76. Index 106. Usually, dew points will drop to lower 70s as the day goes on. No such luck lately. Water temps offshore here have dropped to 87 after a couple of days at 88.
Quick question, the heat Florida is getting today, is that related to a heat wave in the Eastern states or it's normal for Summer?
The ghost of Earl? lol
Quoting 219. washingtonian115:

The ghost of Earl? lol



It's the ECMWF, so it might happen unlike the ghost storms the GFS gives.
Quoting 203. all4hurricanes:


Can you explain what you mean by weight? I think we will see a new eye, the current one is very small and that is hard to maintain


The larger atmosphere being pushed beyond the core of the storm itself. With an awesome compact eye and CDO, that is one high engine machine that easily spins the associated convection and storms to the east and south of the main core. When the eye wall collapses, even briefly, that would grind the system down some typically. Conditions are ripe for a rapid recovery if eye wall replacement happens, but that's not always the case. Could be an utterly devastating typhoon.
000
WTPZ23 KNHC 052044
TCMEP3

HURRICANE BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016
2100 UTC TUE JUL 05 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 120.9W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 130SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 150SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 120.9W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 120.3W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 14.6N 122.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.1N 124.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.7N 126.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.3N 128.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 17.5N 131.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 20.0N 135.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 21.1N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 120.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Man this weather sucks, I finished June at over 14 inches, but 10 inches of that was from TS Colin which was early in the month, and 3 of the other 4 inches fell in the first two weeks.

Rainfall coverage has been well below average the past 3 weeks now, especially for the west coast of FL, the bad news is, model support continues to show hotter than average temps and rainfall below average through the extended. Very odd for this time of year, especially given how wet it has been the past 5 years here during the rainy season.

We've been anything but rainy, it's weird seeing daily rain coverage at 20-30% continuously the past couple weeks, and and continuing through this week.
70 mph winds now for two of the severe warned storms in Minnesota.
Quoting 217. AtHomeInTX:



Sounds like here. Ugh! I'm in the farthest se county of Texas bordering Louisiana. Our temps usually don't get as high as the rest of the state. But even at that have been running above normal in low to mid 90s. It's our humidity that does us in. Now it's 93. Dew point 76. Index 106. Usually, dew points will drop to lower 70s as the day goes on. No such luck lately. Water temps offshore here have dropped to 87 after a couple of days at 88.


Earlier across the Bay it was 94 with an 80 dew point at a 113 heat index at MacDill AFB, locally here near the beaches, it's still 93 with a 106 heat index with the onshore flow, as I said in my recent other post, this weather sucks.

Don't get me wrong, I like warm weather, and will take heat any day over cold weather, but Central FL isn't so continuously hot in the summer like some other areas. That is, yes heat index above of 100 is common on most days for a time, but also clouds, rain, and cooler temps for another portion of the day are as well. The upper ridging that is causing a lack of rain and hotter water temps, and constant heat is crappy.

I hate stuck ridges...
Quoting 191. pablosyn:

02W NEPARTAK
As of 18:00 UTC Jul 05, 2016:

Location: 18.0�N 131.8�E
Maximum Winds: 130 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 926 mb

Really JTWC? 130 kt? Come on, please!

Center Temp : 19.7C Cloud Region Temp : -78.2C






Typical JTWC, this is surely a category 5.
The word BORING is prohibited in this weather blog.So if you think that tracking E-Pac hurricanes are boring,you can be BANNED just for said that.Just in case this is an OPINION about tropical weather in a "tropical" weather blob.Have a nice day,Administrator.
Checking out for the PM and noting the current look for the Pacific storms and the current Conus Jet set up in relation to the convective threat this afternoon; lots happening today. See Yall in the AM.

Valid WW Image


Looks like we have two very strong "stadium effect" eye walls happening at the same time with two different storms; you don't see that everyday......

Quoting 227. hurricanefishfla:
Looks like we will have something to track on the Atlantic side soon as I don't have interest in the east pacific either.Stay tuned.
Quoting 229. washingtonian115:

Looks like we will have something to track on the Atlantic side soon as I don't have interest in the east pacific either.Stay tuned.
Anything in GOM,Caribbean and the CATL are my favorites to track.
The dying forests in California -

The devastation the California drought has caused to conifer trees in the Sierra Nevadas over the last couple of years "is far greater than previously observed," NASA scientists said in announcement of the publication of new map of the region.

And there's this :
He also said that the map points to what could represent a permanent change in the landscape of the region.

"The drought has some momentum, there could be a wave of mortality that continues for the next several years," he said. "The biggest concern here is that the trees that are dying are decades old or even centuries old, and this mortality rate means that the Sierras will be changed during our lifetimes and our kids' lifetimes."


Link

We've already seen this before, in New Mexico , the death of an entire forest on the Southwest flank of the Valles Caldera. This was 13 years ago :

Rising temperatures are worsening the effects of drought in the Four Corners region of the U.S. Southwest, threatening regional ecosystems and global biodiversity.

More than 90 percent of the centuries-old piñon pines around Mesita del Buey, NM, died in a 2002-2003 drought.
This recent drought was warmer than a previous drought in the 1950s, and there is evidence that the recent piñon die-off was significantly more extensive.
In a warming climate, scientists expect drought to cause even more rapid and extensive die-off of trees on a regional scale.


Link

These centuries-old piñon pines did not grow back , and they tried to replant this forest.

So the simple idea that we log. 66 million dead trees is rather short sighted. First of all there are no mills to take the logs. Secondly logging means roads, and if the West is full up on one thing, it's roads.
Thirdly, those dead trees are the inheritance of what comes next . And it shouldn't be left to the fast buck artists that have plagued it it since 1849.

Now, should we leave it ? No. We should send chain saw crews into it. And cut the trees so they slow the runoff. and leave plenty standing as homes for wild life. As the man said :

"The drought has some momentum, there could be a wave of mortality that continues for the next several years," he said. "The biggest concern here is that the trees that are dying are decades old or even centuries old, and this mortality rate means that the Sierras will be changed during our lifetimes and our kids' lifetimes."

So just logging it is rather 19th century thinking, when the trees were 10 feet across at their base , and no one gave a fig what would happen if we cut everyone of them down.

232. btsom
FTA: "Second latest start to the Eastern Pacific hurricane season on record"

So is the CO2 level higher than last year and that was higher than the year before that etc?
Quoting 206. AtHomeInTX:



Hasn't dipped below 80 here in a couple days. Thankfully my ac is working full speed ahead now. Some parts of Texas are starting to resemble that tumbleweed picture already. Nothing like that here. Maybe a tropical rainforest would be more apt. :)


I have been giving my relatives in East Texas a hard time. Friday on my walk home here in Sioux Falls it was 77 degrees and dry. But, today, it is 95 or so with enough humidity to get a heat index of 107.

Uhg!

I think I live too far south.

Qazulight
Quoting 217. AtHomeInTX:



Sounds like here. Ugh! I'm in the farthest se county of Texas bordering Louisiana. Our temps usually don't get as high as the rest of the state. But even at that have been running above normal in low to mid 90s. It's our humidity that does us in. Now it's 93. Dew point 76. Index 106. Usually, dew points will drop to lower 70s as the day goes on. No such luck lately. Water temps offshore here have dropped to 87 after a couple of days at 88.


Where at in Orange county? I used to live in Besse Hieghts on Tanglewood.

Cheers
Qazulight
WTF?
Glad to see you're closer to normal Ped, now if just some of that TS or monsoon moisture could get there. We finally received some moisture again in a big blast. Approx 6", 4.8 in a 24 hr to start, but never any heavy rates, so with very dry soils, most soaked in. Better than that big 3" blast in early June that came in a couple of hours. Needless to say, corn looks much healthier. Hit 88 today w/ 72 dew pt, so below 95 HI, can live with that, about avg in S C IL. 29.9" and light SW wind, might get some more rain tomorrow/Thurs. Have a good one, heading out for Cards game tonight.
Quoting 234. Qazulight:



Where at in Orange county? I used to live in Besse Hieghts on Tanglewood.

Cheers
Qazulight


Live in Vidor. Husband works at the Walmart on Edgar Brown. Has for years now. As far as living too far south, we watch all those shows about Alaska, the other night, the woman who lives above the arctic circle didn't look too crazy to me all of a sudden. And I do not do well in the cold! Lol. Maybe we will retire somewhere in between. :)
Quoting 236. dabirds:

Glad to see you're closer to normal Ped, now if just some of that TS or monsoon moisture could get there. We finally received some moisture again in a big blast. Approx 6", 4.8 in a 24 hr to start, but never any heavy rates, so with very dry soils, most soaked in. Better than that big 3" blast in early June that came in a couple of hours. Needless to say, corn looks much healthier. Hit 88 today w/ 72 dew pt, so below 95 HI, can live with that, about avg in S C IL. 29.9" and light SW wind, might get some more rain tomorrow/Thurs. Have a good one, heading out for Cards game tonight.

Almost 85 now. Fired(sic) the cooler up, humidity @34%, so the Cooler will work OK. Normal is 91/63...
Fahrenheit 85.9 Near Arctic Ocean Shores — Extreme Heatwave Settles in Over North-Central Siberia, Canada’s Northern Tier

70.8 North, 69.2 East. It’s a section of the Yamal Peninsula in Siberian Russia. A typically chilly region of frozen but now thawing ground more than 4 degrees of Latitude north of the Arctic Circle. A place that saw the appearance of odd, disturbing (and now controversial) methane blowholes pockmarking the melting permafrost during 2014. Today, the high temperature in a land now being forced to rapidly warm by human-caused climate change spiked to a tropical 80 degrees Fahrenheit (26.4 C) at 0800 UTC. Tomorrow, temperatures are expected to again rise to 80 F (26.5 C). And in the same location on Thursday, the mercury is forecast to strike close to 86 F (30 C).

Link
Quoting 218. birdsrock2016:

Quick question, the heat Florida is getting today, is that related to a heat wave in the Eastern states or it's normal for Summer?


Upper level high pressure + Saharan air layer = Above normal temperature and below normal rainfall.
Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la
334 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 5 2016

Discussion...
once again main concern will be hot and humid conditions. Forecast
heat index values are very marginal for tomorrow with only a few
places forecast to reach the magical 108 degree threshold...but
overnight lows will once again struggle to drop below 80 for much
of the area. Several health studies indicate warm overnight
temperatures can be more impactful on health than high afternoon
temperatures - especially for at risk populations without access
to air conditioning. Thus have opted to go ahead and issue a heat
advisory for tomorrow afternoon for the same areas as today.

Expect isolated showers/thunderstorms tomorrow, so a few places
will see at least some relief from the heat. High pressure looks
to be strongest on Thursday and will keep convection to a minimum.
Debated whether to mention even isolated convection. With little
convection and only passing clouds, afternoon highs should rise
solidly into the mid 90s and heat advisory may need to be issued
for Thursday afternoon as well.

By Friday, ridging will begin to break down as upper low moves
into the Great Lakes region. As the ridging weakens, expect a
return to scattered afternoon convection. Rain chances appear
highest on Sunday at this time with solid chance pops around 40%.

&&

Aviation...
latest radar trends show that convection is most likely to impact
kbtr and kmcb but all terminals have at least some potential for
vcsh during the next few hours. After that, rain chances will
diminish with loss of daytime heating. VFR conditions will prevail
overnight with scattered convection possible again tomorrow.

&&

Marine...
Bermuda surface ridge extending across the Gulf of Mexico will keep
flow onshore throughout the forecast period. Expect typical
diurnal wind increase/decrease beginning tomorrow and continuing
through the weekend.

&&

Decision support...
dss code: green.
Deployed: none.
Activation: none.
Activities: none.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.
Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event.
Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = high impacts; slight to moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; hazmat or other large episodes.
Red = full engagement for moderate risk of severe and/or
direct tropical threats; events of National significance.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
mcb 76 94 76 95 / 10 30 10 20
btr 78 94 79 95 / 10 30 10 20
asd 78 93 78 94 / 10 20 10 20
msy 80 94 80 93 / 10 20 10 10
gpt 79 93 80 91 / 10 20 10 10
pql 78 93 79 94 / 10 20 10 10

&&
Disturbance by 23W and 10N is developing a nice low level spin to it and it also showing strong vorticity at 500mb to 850mb. Also a large upper level anticyclone is developing overhead too minimizing shear to around 5-10 knots. Also SSTs are around 27-28C. Sufficient convection is developing so if it persists we will begin to see the NHC notice it more and more.
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 052055
TCDEP3

HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 05 2016

Blas has the classic appearance of a powerful hurricane in satellite
imagery this afternoon, with a 20 n mi wide eye embedded in a
symmetric central dense overcast which in turn is almost surrounded
by outer convective bands. Satellite intensity estimates are 115
kt from SAB and 102 kt from TAFB, and a recent CIMSS Advanced
Dvorak Technique estimate is 110 kt. Based on these data, the
initial intensity is increased to 110 kt, making Blas the first
major hurricane of the eastern Pacific season.

Blas continues its westward movement with an initial motion of
275/14. For the next 72 hours or so, the hurricane should be
steered generally westward to west-northwestward by a deep-layer
ridge over the subtropical eastern Pacific. This portion of the
new forecast track is an update of the previous track. After 72
hours, the forecast confidence decreases as the track guidance
diverges. The GFS, UKMET, NAVGEM, and Canadian models turn Blas
northwestward between the ridge and a large mid- to upper-level low
centered to the northeast of the Hawaiian islands. In contrast
to the other models, the ECMWF forecasts the low to move westward
with mid-level ridging developing between it and Blas. Thus, it
forecasts Blas to turn westward by 120 hours. The new forecast
track is similar to the old track in showing a west-northwestward
motion at 96 and 120 hours, with the track lying between the ECMWF
and the other models.

Blas should remain in a light-shear environment over warm water for
the next 12-24 hours or so, and some additional strengthening is
possible during this time. While the shear is expected to be
light to moderate during the forecast period, the cyclone should
move over decreasing sea surface temperatures after 24 hours which
should cause a steady weakening. The new forecast intensity is
similar to that of the previous advisory and calls for Blas to decay
to a remnant low over cold water by 120 hours. However, if the ECMWF
track verifies, the system would stay over warmer water and likely
remain a tropical cyclone at 120 hours and beyond.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 14.3N 120.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 14.6N 122.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 15.1N 124.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 15.7N 126.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 16.3N 128.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 17.5N 131.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 20.0N 135.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 21.1N 139.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven
Wave nearing 24w is developing good convection in a zone where it hasn't persisted all season long, I think with shear 5-10 knots through 40w, this will have a great chance to become a Cape Verde storm, first of the season. All conditions are favorable, with a more moist environment near 10n as opposed to 15-20N.
The vigorous tropical wave is still going north of P.R.Shear is high though so development is not expected.
246. elioe
Quoting 242. TheDawnAwakening:

Disturbance by 23W and 10N is developing a nice low level spin to it and it also showing strong vorticity at 500mb to 850mb. Also a large upper level anticyclone is developing overhead too minimizing shear to around 5-10 knots. Also SSTs are around 27-28C. Sufficient convection is developing so if it persists we will begin to see the NHC notice it more and more.


The model support for that disturbance to become a tropical cyclone consists of a single CMC ensemble member.
Moderate risk now with a second line possibly trying to form out in front of the main line, Minneapolis radar shows it well. Hook echoes on the super cells producing possible tornadoes are impressive. These are some mean looking storms.
Another thing about forest management , the Russians , and Canadians never managed their forests like we did over time. This entire idea that we attacked fires for decades , and now we pay the price. Doesn't ring true. Their forests didn't burn in the 50's . They were wet, and cool fire never had chance.

Have we screwed our forest management over the last 70 years , Yes .

Have the Russians , and Canadians done better ?

Not at all , their wild land fires grow every day.
COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
249 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016

.NOW...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL
COVERAGE WILL KEEP THE HOT WEATHER CONTINUING THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS VOLUSIA...
SEMINOLE...ORANGE AND NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTIES AS AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR INTO OSCEOLA COUNTY INTO THE EVENING
BUT OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN LOW.

&&

Additional details...including graphics are available online at:
http://www.weather.gov/mlb/?n=blog
smattered showers
I hear thunder, it gets dark, then sun is out again
.
Quoting 245. washingtonian115:

The vigorous tropical wave is still going north of P.R.Shear is high though so development is not expected.



Shear dies down as it heads northwest, while not expected within the next 24 hours it is possible afterwards. also the wave near 23w doesn't need model support to develop, it will develop because environmental conditions favor it so
Quoting 207. MAweatherboy1:

A little off topic, but the SPC has upgraded to a moderate risk for potential wind damage across parts of the upper Midwest this afternoon. An MCS has already formed and has the potential to produce a derecho event, as noted in the SPC 20z discussion.



Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
405 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001 -002-010-011-019-
062115-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE ILLINOIS-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-
DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-
IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE INDIANA-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
405 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016 /505 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:
SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM RISK...WITH AN ASSOCIATED:
LIMITED HAIL RISK...UP TO QUARTER SIZE.
SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK...IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH.

DISCUSSION:

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING...AND QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AROUND MIDNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL POSE A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS THEY QUICKLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE
OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH 6 AM CDT. THE HIGHER THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS TO THE NORTHWEST OF A PONTIAC TO CHICAGO LINE...THOUGH A
DAMAGING WIND RISK CANNOT BE RULED OUT SOUTHEAST OF THIS LINE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY...
LIMITED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK.
LIMITED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.
THURSDAY...
ELEVATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK.
LIMITED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.
FRIDAY...
LIMITED THUNDERSTORM RISK.
LIMITED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.
SATURDAY...
HIGH SWIM RISK ALONG NORTHWEST INDIANA BEACHES.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
LIMITED THUNDERSTORM RISK.

DISCUSSION:

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...WITH
PERIODS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THERE IS AN
ADDITIONAL THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

&&

$$
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 240. Proflaw:



Upper level high pressure + Saharan air layer = Above normal temperature and below normal rainfall.

That sounds like a reasonable explanation for the miserable weather. At my location, we have not had a normal rainy season pattern since Tropical Storm Colin. Many areas nearby have had enough precipitation not to be abnormally dry yet. We ARE abnormally dry at my location. Tropical garden plants are drying out and leaves are badly scorched from the hot sun and lack of moisture. I really need to learn about how to measure and analyze local soil moisture levels, but another week of this and we will surely be in full-blown drought, at least on a local scale.
Quoting 237. AtHomeInTX:



Live in Vidor. Husband works at the Walmart on Edgar Brown. Has for years now. As far as living too far south, we watch all those shows about Alaska, the other night, the woman who lives above the arctic circle didn't look too crazy to me all of a sudden. And I do not do well in the cold! Lol. Maybe we will retire somewhere in between. :)


Buy a cabin in northern Minnisota, leave in the winter and go back to Texas for Christmas through Easter. You get 4 seasons, get to play in the snow some, then get out for the long cold dark winter. The people in Minnisota are simular to Texans in a lot of ways, except they are friendlier. From Fargo or Brainard, or Detroit lakes to Vidor is only a two day drive. We run from Sioux Falls to Nacogdoches, (Where are main house is now) in one day if we catch it right and are feeling good.
256. vis0

Quoting 171. opal92nwf:

Wait for August, wait for August, wait for August...
...whew! it feels like August ; = )
It has never been acknowledged not even by the master of the blog so easy on the tone

Quoting 129. BahaHurican:

The reality has been acknowledged and accepted: to wit, no serious precipitation events expected until the end of the month .... it's just that the rest of us have not been complaining about it....

Meanwhile we watch the potential disaster of EXCESS water unfolding in the WPAC.....