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Chinese Floods Kill 186: Earth's Costliest and 2nd Deadliest Weather Disaster of 2016

By: Jeff Masters 3:33 PM GMT on July 04, 2016

Torrential monsoon rains along a stalled frontal boundary near the Yangtze River in China have killed 186 people, left 45 people missing, and caused at least $7.6 billion in damage. In the Hubei Province, 1.5 million people have been evacuated or are in need of aid, almost 9,000 houses have collapsed or are seriously damaged and more than 710,000 hectares of crops have been affected, the provincial civil affairs department said. According to the May 2016 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield, the $7.6 billion in damage from these floods would make them the world's most expensive and second deadliest weather-related disaster so far in 2016. The only deadlier weather disaster in 2016 was an April heat wave in India that claimed 300 lives.


Figure 1. Aerial view of the flooded houses at Rongshui Miao Autonomous County on July 3, 2016 in Liuzhou, Guangxi Province of China. (Photo by Long Tao/VCG via Getty Images) 

A deadly monsoon season in China
It's been a severe monsoon season in China this year. On June 22, a tornado hit near the city of Yancheng in Jiangsu province, about 500 miles south of Beijing, killing 98 and injuring 800. As our Bob Henson noted in a June 23 post, this tornado occurred along the Mei-yu (or baiu) front, which typically persists for a few weeks in late spring and early summer. This semi-permanent feature extends from eastern China across Taiwan into the Pacific south of Japan, associated with the southwest monsoon that pushes northward each spring and summer. The AMS Glossary notes: “The mei-yu/baiu front is very significant in the weather and climate of southeast Asia as it serves as the focus for persistent heavy convective rainfall associated with mesoscale convective complexes (MCCs) or mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) that propagate eastward.” A number of studies have found that the Mei-yu rainfall tends to be particularly heavy in the summer following an El Niño event, as is occurring in 2016. More heavy rain is likely in the flood-affected areas later this week.

I'll be back with a post on the tropics later today.

Jeff Masters

Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Masters!
I feel maybe the Alantic will start coming alive here soon. Nice waves coming off. It's that month where we start seeing and tracking storms
I just posted a entry about the tropical systems in the pacific and the severe weather threat, check it out! And have a great July 4th!
Wow angry atmo... Thanks for the update. About a month/2 month ago I remember I read an article specifically relaying what sounds now like a dire warning from the Chinese hydrological/met. services : they were noting the already elevated river levels across parts of China at the time, before the onset of the rainy season there, and expecting an exceptionally high risk of floods in very populated regions in the coming months. Unfortunately it seems the forecast was quite accurate. It's never too late to find better ways to stop feeding the atmosphere extra CO2 while showing respect for each others, to the real needs and Weltanschauung of our respective "others", I shall say. Meanwhile, another severe blow to China's coastal regions could be coming from the W. Pac.
Yellow donut rolling on the table :

Nepartak xx/xx/xx - Taiwan and East China's coasts are visible in the upper left corner of the picture, though barely noticeable (look for the white lines).
Blas looks like a category two hurricane now, with an eye trying to become visible on satellite imagery. Large tropical wave emerging off of Africa coastline increasing convection. Something to watch.
03E/H/B/C2

O beautiful for heroes proved
In liberating strife.
Who more than self their country loved
And mercy more than life!
America! America!
May God thy gold refine
Till all success be nobleness
And every gain divine!




EURO develops a cyclone within 72-96 hours east of NC that moves out to sea.
The human induced warming of the biosphere from burning fossil fuels to run our societies.....is also bringing record floods and pwats too.

Did we not know a huge price was coming for a hundred years of doing this?

They knew..and you,myself and billions more will be paying the price for our shared global sin.

No one alive or born today will ever live in a world where the CO2 is below 400ppm.

It has risen 92 ppm in my 56.5 years.


All this burning of natures safely stored carbon...is the biggest crisis we have ever faced.




have a great day
KOTG.
The Declaration of Independence was signed on July 4th, 1776

The United States Marine Corps was formed on November 10th, 1775 at Tun Tavern in Philadelphia.

Serving America proudly for 241 years.

Semper Fidelis

Quoting 14. TheDawnAwakening:

EURO develops a cyclone within 72-96 hours east of NC that moves out to sea.
This is not the Euro however it doesn't look tropical
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 041443
TCDEP3

HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016
900 AM MDT MON JUL 04 2016

Blas' cloud pattern consists of a large mass of cold-topped central
convection and a couple of fragmented outer bands. A 1027 UTC SSM/I
pass revealed a ragged mid-level eye feature, but the low-level
structure appeared less organized. Dvorak satellite classifications
were T4.0/65 kt and T4.5/77 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively.
Taking into account the overnight ASCAT pass, the initial intensity
is set at 65 kt, the low end of the intensity estimates.

The initial motion estimate is unchanged at 285/11. The track
forecast remains straightforward. Blas is expected to be steered
along the southern side of a deep-layer subtropical ridge extending
westward from northern Mexico and the southern United States during
the next 3-4 days. The cyclone should reach the western periphery
of the ridge by days 4-5, which should result in a turn nearly
toward the northwest. The model guidance is in relatively good
agreement throughout the forecast period, though the GFS and ECMWF
models diverge some after day 3. The NHC track forecast does not
deviate much from the previous one and is north of the southernmost
ECMWF owing to the forecast of a strong hurricane, more like the GFS
solution indicates.

The large-scale environment surrounding Blas is characterized by
light to moderate northeasterly shear and a rich supply of
moisture. Coupled with warm-enough waters, Blas should intensify
into a large and intense hurricane during the next couple of days
once it establishes a better organized inner core. The NHC intensity
forecast continues to lean heavily on the statistical guidance, some
of which strengthens Blas even more than the current forecast.
Around 72 hours, even though the shear should still be low, the
hurricane should enter a drier and more stable environment and begin
traversing sub-26 deg C waters. This should promote a slow
weakening trend that will accelerate after 96 hours once Blas moves
over much cooler waters.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 13.3N 114.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 13.6N 116.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 14.1N 118.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 14.6N 121.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 15.1N 123.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 16.3N 127.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 17.8N 131.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 19.8N 134.7W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
Quoting 15. Patrap:

It has risen 92 ppm in my 56.5 years.

Were I to measure my age in ppm, I will probably have overtaken you already and be aging faster and faster.
(in earth orbits I'm 49. Disclaimer, I'm not sure I understand what I'm saying here but it sure is gloomy).
Quoting 7. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



*yikes*
Thanks for the update, Doc! Some pics from China:


03.07.2016: The torrential rains in south China has put quite a bit of pressure on the nation's flood control protocols. Along with rising water levels in the country's major rivers, China is also expecting typhoons. According to the State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River will see rising water levels in the next three to five days. The water levels of Taihu, Dongting and Poyang lakes will be above the warning line as well. Also, in four days, China will embrace the first major typhoon this year.



Agatha looks sheared. All of the convection is to the northeast. The convection is also sparse. Blas looks great. It has a Central Dense Overcast and spiral banding.
Happy 4th Of July to all my fellow bloggers, and an extra special thanks to those among us who have served our country to protect the very freedoms that we enjoy today. Hat's off to you.
Won't be much longer before we can sail from Canada to Russia going across the north pole. Scary stuff.
Tropical Storm Nepartak:



Models have shifted once again, this time to the east - hitting some Southern Japanese Islands, scrapping the tip of Taiwan and curving into South Korea/Japan.

The HWRF and GFS continue to show it becoming a very powerful system:

HWRF:



GFS:



Still lots of uncertainty around its track. It should become more clear by tomorrow/Wednesday.
Quoting 22. cRRKampen:


*yikes*
With the ice melting at a alarming rate,why the ocean levels have not risen ?or have they.
Quoting 28. victoria780:

With the ice melting at a alarming rate,why the ocean levels have not risen ?or have they.


Climate clean-up-Aisle 3
Wonder if this is having and impact on what we are seeing today?

China's Three Gorges Dam: An Environmental Catastrophe?

Link
Quoting 16. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



have a great day
KOTG.


Thanks, KOTG!
We continue to wrestle a bit with "their Creator", but the rest of it remains, in principle, unquestioned. None of us are guaranteed happiness-but we are free to pursue "it".

The Declaration of Independence is considered a living, breathing, document. Interpretation is not cut in stone.
Would our founding Fathers support Gay Rights? Probably not. But they supported/accepted slavery. Things change!
Happy Birthday America! 1776-2016! 240 Years and counting! God Bless America! Land of the Free and Home of the Brave!
Quoting 7. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



The sudden thinning of the ice cap to the left probably explained by the influx of tepid subsurface waters thru the Bering Strait. Interesting though also that the closest open water to the pole is actually on the opposite side north of western Eurasia. One or two strong cyclones could change things in a hurry by breaking up large areas of ice, even some of the old ice that's now exposed to open water.
Thanks Dr. Masters...
The rain is moving in now.Hopefully it won't be a lot to impede the fireworks later.
Struggling with (relatively) dry air in between its banding features but largely up to the fight : there is a possibility that it could wait several days before reaching cat.2 status ; when will it eventually pass the 4.0 treshold (ADT intensity estimates), that who knows ? It looks very close now, at about 3.8. Nepartak, xx/xx/xx :

Nepartak until about 1645 GMT (July 4) :

Notice the eastern coast of Taiwan currently in the dark. An area that is a lot less populated especially compared to the W. coast - that also beneficiates from continental exchanges of course ; but maybe typhoons discourage people from establishing vulnerable infrastructure there too...
000
ABNT20 KNHC 041732
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2pm Update from the NHC.
Quoting 26. Huracan94:

Won't be much longer before we can sail from Canada to Russia going across the north pole. Scary stuff.


Yeah, and if we time it right, we will be able to do it between sunrise and sunset.

Cheers
Qazulight

(click any image to open in new window)

Blas is a very large storm, storing up a proportionately large amount of momentum and moisture that should allow it to persist longer even after it encounters cooler SSTs, assuming it takes the forecast track.
Quoting 33. BayFog:



How does one delete one's own accidental posting?
Quoting 11. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Water temperature in the GOM is 87 degrees here at Fort Myers Beach. We also have several weeks until our usual peak in late August.
La nina on hold.
Take this MJO forecast lightly.

(click image for EPAC 11AM PDT Tropical Weather Outlook)
Uh-oh, Agatha.

Quoting 36. 999Ai2016:

Struggling with (relatively) dry air in between its banding features but largely up to the fight : there is a possibility that it could wait several days before reaching cat.2 status ; when will it eventually pass the 4.0 treshold (ADT intensity estimates), that who knows ? It looks very close now, at about 3.8. Nepartak, xx/xx/xx :

Nepartak until about 1645 GMT (July 4) :

Notice the eastern coast of Taiwan currently in the dark. An area that is a lot less populated especially compared to the W. coast - that also beneficiates from continental exchanges of course ; but maybe typhoons discourage people from establishing vulnerable infrastructure there too...


The extreme mountain terrain is primarily The thing that prevents development of the eastern side of the island. It does protect the other cities though, albeit less so for the southernmost city of Kaoshung. Taipei is protected by a ring of mountains that is only open at the northern end of the city.
Quoting 28. victoria780:

With the ice melting at a alarming rate,why the ocean levels have not risen ?or have they.


An ice cube floating on some other water displaces the same mass of that other water before it melts as after it melts. A net loss of land ice to the oceans raises ocean level. That post was about sea ice that was floating on the ocean and then melted. It wasn't about land ice melting.
* Tropical cannon - switch to full automatic 8-)
Quoting 45. beell:


(click image for EPAC 11AM PDT Tropical Weather Outlook)
Quoting 41. BayFog:


How does one delete one's own accidental posting?


You can't delete your own posts on this blog. Most people just put a period in place of what is there and move on. Some apologize for it, No biggie, it happens.... A mod could remove it.
Quoting 28. victoria780:

With the ice melting at a alarming rate,why the ocean levels have not risen ?or have they.

The Arctic sea ice that Keeper showed at #7 and cRRKampen reposted is already floating on the ocean so its melting doesn't significantly affect sea level.

But land based ice such as Greenland, Antarctica and other glaciers continues to melt and the oceans continue to warm leading to between 3 and 4 mm of sea level rise per year. The ocean level continues to rise.

It's worth understanding the difference between sea ice and land based ice.
Quoting 41. BayFog:


How does one delete one's own accidental posting?



you cant

Cruise Control.....
Quoting 49. 999Ai2016:

* Tropical cannon - switch to full automatic 8-)

The Atlantic switch is still broken, we'll let you know when it's fixed.
Quoting 54. HurricaneAndre:

The Atlantic switch is still broken, we'll let you know when it's fixed.


Would you like some Cheese with that WHINE....
I'm not believing the MJO forecast at all.It showed the MJO moving into the Atlantic by June 30th and that has yet to happen.We're still in a downward phase.
Quoting 46. beell:

Uh-oh, Agatha.



Agatha seems post tropical. The last of the deep convection is fading away.
Quoting 46. beell:

Uh-oh, Agatha.



She ran away from her convection.
Quoting 53. PedleyCA:


Cruise Control.....


Well, Monday looking a bit chilly, otherwise, pretty much the same here. Lol.

Quoting 57. washingtonian115:

I'm not believing the MJO forecast at all.It showed the MJO moving into the Atlantic by June 30th and that has yet to happen.We're still in a downward phase.
And it suggested that we would be in a upward motion this week, and that does not look to happen at all too. Best to not look into it really too much at all. Atlantic is still is in Sinking Air Mode.
Quoting 39. beell:


(click any image to open in new window)
Why you people here track systems that are so boring. Most of the times this systems going nowhere but to sea opens waters.I really cares about hurricanes in GOM,Caribbean and CATL.
Quoting 62. hurricanefishfla:

Why you people here track systems that are so boring. Most of the times this systems going nowhere but to sea opens waters.I really cares about hurricanes in GOM,Caribbean and CATL.


why do you come on here then? we have the right too track what ever we want Nepartak is not heading out too sea
Quoting 59. NCHurricaneTracker69:


She ran away from her convection.
Forget Agatha and Blas.They are boring.
Quoting 64. hurricanefishfla:

Forget Agatha and Blas.They are boring.



we have the right to track what ever we like if you dont like it you dont have too be here no one is forceing you too be here come back in AUG when we have some in you like too track
Quoting 63. Tazmanian:



why do you come on here then? we have the right too track what ever we want Nepartak is not heading out too sea
I think he's referring to the east pacific.
Quoting 66. washingtonian115:

I think he's referring to the east pacific.


i no what he was referring too
Quoting 62. hurricanefishfla:

Why you people here track systems that are so boring. Most of the times this systems going nowhere but to sea opens waters.I really cares about hurricanes in GOM,Caribbean and CATL.


Not so borings for me. I cares about the large surf Blas is likely to bring to me out here on the island of Kaua'i, Hawai'i, but out of respect for your cares maybe we should not talk about any weather that doesn't directly affect you? XD
Quoting 60. AtHomeInTX:



Well, Monday looking a bit chilly, otherwise, pretty much the same here. Lol.




They must have been updating it when you grabbed it. I saw mine with two missing entries the other day and wundered about what the hail was going on. Misspelling was intentional...
Quoting 49. 999Ai2016:

* Tropical cannon - switch to full automatic 8-)


Strange salvo composition, one of them a blank..
Quoting 46. beell:

Uh-oh, Agatha.



Whoa, Agatha! Put something on, this is a family friendly site!

NSFW?

;)
Happy 4th all!

Blas is still struggling a little bit, seemingly a combination of around 10kts of northeasterly shear, which is aiding in some dry air entrainment, along with the fairly large size of the cyclone which may be keeping the core from tightening. None of those on their own are a major issue, and even together the storm is still slowly intensifying, but they've prevented the lid from coming off, for now. This is something the HWRF had forecast, as I mentioned yesterday. Still, the overall structure is quite healthy, and the environment is favorable. Major hurricane seems likely.

Quoting 67. Tazmanian:



i no what he was referring too
In your first post you referred to Nepartak which is in the West Pacific.
Will the CCKW make its way in to the western Caribbean and/or Atlantic and thus set up potential development there? So far, I am not seeing much evidence to support that. The global models all indicate generally quiet conditions over the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf for the next several days. This is not surprising considering that when the east Pacific is active, the Atlantic is usually not. It’s also early July and from a climatology perspective, we are not supposed to see much activity right now anyway. (Mark Sudduth)
Quoting 62. hurricanefishfla:

Why you people here track systems that are so boring. Most of the times this systems going nowhere but to sea opens waters.I really cares about hurricanes in GOM,Caribbean and CATL.

This is a tropical weather blog, not a GOM Caribbean and CATL blog. We also appreciate weather phenomena for themselves, not because they might cause catastrophe.
Quoting 69. PedleyCA:



They must have been updating it when you grabbed it. I saw mine with two missing entries the other day and wundered about what the hail was going on. Misspelling was intentional...


Lol. Yeah, figured it was something like that. Its been nothing but hot and humid here. Will continue to be so. Although, i actually have been getting rain quite a bit lately when no one within a thousand miles has. Today there was some rain to my north but none here. 93, dew point 77, heat index 107.
Quoting 74. Climate175:

Will the CCKW make its way in to the western Caribbean and/or Atlantic and thus set up potential development there? So far, I am not seeing much evidence to support that. The global models all indicate generally quiet conditions over the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf for the next several days. This is not surprising considering that when the east Pacific is active, the Atlantic is usually not. It’s also early July and from a climatology perspective, we are not supposed to see much activity right now anyway. (Mark Sudduth)


??? A strong CCKW is currently propagating through the Atlantic basin...
Summer hurricane surf has become quite common for the islands. Used to be you would only see decent hurricane groundswell only every three years or so. I did manage to surf off Ala Mo's as Iniki approached. Just seems so common now.

The east coast has been in a bit of a hurricane wave drought similar to the 1980's. Guess I just got used to the hyperactive 2000's.

Quoting 68. EyewallPaul:



Not so borings for me. I cares about the large surf Blas is likely to bring to me out here on the island of Kaua'i, Hawai'i, but out of respect for your cares maybe we should not talk about any weather that doesn't directly affect you? XD
Happy 4th of July to our American friends
Quoting 75. BayFog:


This is a tropical weather blog, not a GOM Caribbean and CATL blog. We also appreciate weather phenomena for themselves, not because they might cause catastrophe.
Yes i loved this weather blog just for GOM,Caribbean and CATL. So if you love to track hurricanes in Taiwan,the Japanese Islands,Australia China and Vietman,welcome to your other blog.
Quoting 75. BayFog:


This is a tropical weather blog, not a GOM Caribbean and CATL blog. We also appreciate weather phenomena for themselves, not because they might cause catastrophe.


I'm not sure if we should even call this blog a "tropical weather blog." It's really a weather and climate blog. Blog topics are regularly focused on droughts, floods, heat waves, severe weather, and climate change.
But when there are active tropical systems, they tend to become the main blog topic.

Even with active tropical systems, the past 5 blog headings only mentioned tropical weather once.
*Chinese Floods Kill 186: Earth's Costliest and 2nd Deadliest Weather Disaster of 2016
*Heat vs. Cold: Which Is More Dangerous for Kids in Cars?
*A Very-Good-News Story: Microbursts and U.S. Aviation
*A Gallery of Tropical Influences: MJO, CCKW, TIW, and La Nina
*West Virginia in Shock after Flash Floods Kill At Least 23

As mentioned in today's blog, we should see a blog this evening related to the current tropical activity.
So Agatha is nekkid. Will Blas be nekkid soon? Tune in tomorrow... Oh, wait! Apparently not.



Liberty means responsibility. That is why most men dread it.
~George Bernard Shaw, Man and Superman



(edit: "s" removed from wu's own image address)
First post here - long time lurker excited to join everyone for the upcoming EPac and Atl seasons!

Agatha looks like she's finally succumbing to that deadly combo of southwesterly shear and dry air. Blas is well on his way to become the first major hurricane this year in the Northern Hemisphere, maybe as early by tomorrow morning. On visible sat it really looks like his inner core is finally getting sorted out.
Quoting 83. cyclonicwx67:

First post here - long time lurker excited to join everyone for the upcoming EPac and Atl seasons!


Welcome to the blog.
For what its worth,the GFS has a Hurricane hitting Hawaii on the 17th.
Been in and out of this blog periodically checking on the tropics and today find my old friend Taz calling it like it is. Hope you are doing well, Taz. From Horn Island off of the Mississippi Coast... Happy July Fourth.
Quoting 65. Tazmanian:




we have the right to track what ever we like if you dont like it you dont have too be here no one is forceing you too be here come back in AUG when we have some in you like too track
Probably extratropical next advisory.

Quoting 62. hurricanefishfla:

Why you people here track systems that are so boring. Most of the times this systems going nowhere but to sea opens waters.I really cares about hurricanes in GOM,Caribbean and CATL.


Yes they are boring.
Afternoon all ... Hot and steamy here in Nassau today ... the kind of day to get under a cool tree by the beach with a cooler full of iced drinks and a good book.... :-)
Quoting 86. palmpt:

Been in and out of this blog periodically checking on the tropics and today find my old friend Taz calling it like it is. Hope you are doing well, Taz. From Horn Island off of the Mississippi Coast... Happy July Fourth.
Do you see something to track in Saudi Arabia,The Azores or New Foundland? Keep tracking it no matter this is a tropical weather blog.
Quoting 43. Gearsts:

La nina on hold.



Good news don't exist when it comes to the Atlantic :(
Quoting 88. CaribBoy:



Yes they are boring.
Thank You,welcome to the club.
"E. Pacific storms are boring"

Yeah, well.. you know, we like watching storms.

It's weird, we know.
Quoting 92. hurricanefishfla:

Thank You,welcome to the club.


Welcome to the "I got nothing" Club....
Quoting 93. Mediarologist:

"E. Pacific storms are boring"

Yeah, well.. you know, we like watching storms. It's weird, we know.
Welcome to the No More Boring Club.
Quoting 85. victoria780:

For what its worth,the GFS has a Hurricane hitting Hawaii on the 17th.



lol
Quoting 96. Tornado6042008X:



(\8^|)
This is the wave that Kelvin is suppose to visit,then MOJO suppose come along and make more excited.
Quoting 96. Tornado6042008X:



(\8^|)
Quoting 96. Tornado6042008X:



(\8^|)
Now we are talking.That's really tropical,so that's my favorite to track.
Quoting 57. washingtonian115:

I'm not believing the MJO forecast at all.It showed the MJO moving into the Atlantic by June 30th and that has yet to happen.We're still in a downward phase.


As usual the MJO remains in the Pacific.
" The current interruption to the cyclone's strengthening could be related to a dry air intrusion from an unknown source and/or some northeasterly shear." Where could the dry air be coming from?
Quoting 55. TropicalAnalystwx13:




Wow, that's a very intense eye wall being formed. Certainly looking to become a very powerful system.

Sun is coming up over Nepartak now:



Shouldn't be too long until we see an eye starting to clear out.
Quoting 78. HaoleboySurfEC:

Summer hurricane surf has become quite common for the islands. Used to be you would only see decent hurricane groundswell only every three years or so. I did manage to surf off Ala Mo's as Iniki approached. Just seems so common now.

The east coast has been in a bit of a hurricane wave drought similar to the 1980's. Guess I just got used to the hyperactive 2000's.




Yeah it does seem to be more and more common - last year was just absolutely ridiculous!! The surf just didn't quit all summer and then the El Nino winter.. wow.
Quoting 64. hurricanefishfla:

Forget Agatha and Blas.They are boring.
Actually, Blas is kinda PHAT ... sure beats what's swimming in our waters...
:-)
Quoting 81. Sfloridacat5:



I'm not sure if we should even call this blog a "tropical weather blog." It's really a weather and climate blog. Blog topics are regularly focused on droughts, floods, heat waves, severe weather, and climate change.
But when there are active tropical systems, they tend to become the main blog topic.

Even with active tropical systems, the past 5 blog headings only mentioned tropical weather once.
*Chinese Floods Kill 186: Earth's Costliest and 2nd Deadliest Weather Disaster of 2016
*Heat vs. Cold: Which Is More Dangerous for Kids in Cars?
*A Very-Good-News Story: Microbursts and U.S. Aviation
*A Gallery of Tropical Influences: MJO, CCKW, TIW, and La Nina
*West Virginia in Shock after Flash Floods Kill At Least 23

As mentioned in today's blog, we should see a blog this evening related to the current tropical activity.
I agree with Taz.... if the blog topics and discussion irritate you, you'd probably be better off not hanging out here until the beginning of August when ATL activity starts to ramp up. July is generally a deathly dull month for ATL cyclogenesis. Even the long range GFS says "nuttin' " until about July 24....
Or you could hang around and learn more about cyclones in the tropics generally.... your call.
105. beell
Quoting 104. BahaHurican:

Actually, Blas is kinda PHAT ... sure beats what's swimming in our waters...
:-)
I agree with Taz.... if the blog topics and discussion irritate you, you'd probably be better off not hanging out here until the beginning of August when ATL activity starts to ramp up. July is generally a deathly dull month for ATL cyclogenesis. Even the long range GFS says "nuttin' " until about July 24....
Or you could hang around and learn more about cyclones in the tropics generally.... your call.


This poster's trolling skills are probably better suited to a Quilting blog...maybe graduate to Paper Mache Sculpture with some practice. Then, perhaps "shim" will be ready for us!
Quoting 106. unknowncomic:


MJO retreats?
Quoting 105. beell:



This poster's trolling skills are probably better suited to a Quilting blog...maybe graduate to Paper Mache Sculpture with some practice. Then, perhaps "shim" will be ready for us!
The WUnderbloggers... politely obfuscating the obvious ad nauseam...

:-)
Nothing about today made me think we'll be seeing MJO upward phase any time soon.... first day this month where wx conditions were fairly typical for this time of year ...
110. beell
Quoting 109. BahaHurican:

Nothing about today made me think we'll be seeing MJO upward phase any time soon.... first day this month where wx conditions were fairly typical for this time of year ...


C'mon, Baha. The MJO is old news. The CCKW is all the rage. Both of them seem to be fine indicators of large scale rising air until...you throw a continent (or two) in the way.
;-)
Quoting 94. PedleyCA:



Welcome to the "I got nothing" Club....



more nothing on special tomorrow
and the next day and the day after that
and so on and so forth
soon you will have that much nothing
you will have nothing too do with it
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 042039
TCDEP3

HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016
200 PM PDT MON JUL 04 2016

Blas' cloud pattern has not changed much in organization since this
morning, except for the emergence of what appears to be a ragged,
banding-type eye. The cyclone's central features are still not that
well organized, although there are some recent signs that this may
be changing. A dry slot of air has also been wrapping around the
western half of the circulation. Dvorak classifications remain T4.0
and T4.5 from SAB and TAFB, respectively. A 1652 UTC ASCAT overpass
indicates that Blas is a minimal hurricane at best, and the initial
intensity estimate is held at 65 kt for this advisory.

The latest fixes indicate that the initial motion is a little faster
and has a bit more of a northerly component than yesterday. The
best estimate is that the cyclone is moving 290/12. Overall, the
forecast reasoning is unchanged. Blas should be steered on a west-
northwestward course during the next several days to the south of
a strong, deep-layer subtropical ridge extending westward from
northern Mexico. A more northwesterly track is possible toward the
end of the forecast period as the cyclone nears the western end of
this ridge. The new NHC track forecast is adjusted a little to the
north in the short term and lies on the northern side of the
guidance envelope. The forecast does not deviate much from the
previous forecast beyond day 2 and lies near the multi-model
consensus.

It is unclear as to why Blas has not strengthened much, especially
since the large-scale environment appears conducive for
intensification. The current interruption to the cyclone's
strengthening could be related to a dry air intrusion from an
unknown source and/or some northeasterly shear. Whatever the cause,
additional strengthening is still indicated, and the new intensity
forecast remains near the upper-end statistical guidance. On days
3-4, Blas will reach the 26-deg sea surface temperature isotherm and
encounter substantially drier and more stable air. This should
result in gradual weakening in an otherwise low-shear environment.
By 96 hours, rapid weakening is expected to commence due to
increasingly unfavorable environmental factors.

The wind radii have been significantly adjusted based on the
aforementioned ASCAT overpass.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 13.7N 115.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 14.1N 117.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 14.6N 120.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 15.1N 122.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 15.6N 124.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 16.8N 128.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 18.2N 131.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 20.0N 135.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
I'll be back with a post on the tropics later today


hey its 3:35 pm so its later today
Quoting 102. Envoirment:



Wow, that's a very intense eye wall being formed. Certainly looking to become a very powerful system.

Sun is coming up over Nepartak now:



Shouldn't be too long until we see an eye starting to clear out.

Yeah, Nepartak is going to shoot up in intensity quickly once the eye clears given how intense the central dense overcast is. Don't see any reason to change my forecast peak of 130kt. Potential for it to go higher.
Quoting 91. CaribBoy:



Good news don't exist when it comes to the Atlantic :(

Certainly seems that way. I really don't want a 2013 repeat.
Quoting 114. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah, Nepartak is going to shoot up in intensity quickly given how intense the central dense overcast is. Don't see any reason to change my forecast peak of 130kt. Potential for it to go higher.


Certainly will be very interesting next year when the Japanese start flying into these systems. I would imagine they'll record many storms with pressures <900 mb. Perhaps even some of the strongest storms could rival Tip's pressure reading.
Quoting 114. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah, Nepartak is going to shoot up in intensity quickly once the eye clears given how intense the central dense overcast is. Don't see any reason to change my forecast peak of 130kt. Potential for it to go higher.


and its a small storm so that would help
Looks like Blas is finally about to go nuclear.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realt ime/loop.asp?product=4kmirimg&storm_identifier=EP0 32016&starting_image=2016EP03_4KMIRIMG_20160704153 0.GIF
Quoting 119. Patrap:




getting biger
Quoting 116. Envoirment:



Certainly will be very interesting next year when the Japanese start flying into these systems. I would imagine they'll record many storms with pressures <900 mb. Perhaps even some of the strongest storms could rival Tip's pressure reading.
They're three years to damn late......I wonder what they would have found with Haiyan's pressure because I know for a fact it was probably sub 970 as it was coming towards the Philippines.No way the current pressure that they have for the storm is correct because Patricia was 972 so I can only imagine what Haiyan's was.
When do you guys expect Earl to form? The Atlantic seems shut down right now and I'd like to know what you guys think, as this dead Atlantic is frustrating for us Atlantic fans.
Quoting 121. washingtonian115:

They're three years to damn late......I wonder what they would have found with Haiyan's pressure because I know for a fact it was probably sub 970 as it was coming towards the Philippines.No way the current pressure that they have for the storm is correct because Patricia was 972 so I can only imagine what Haiyan's was.

Haiyan had a superior satellite presentation, but Patricia had a much tighter core. I wouldn't be surprised if Patricia was indeed stronger than Hayan. The world will never know (until we invent time travel).
Quoting 122. HurricaneFan:

When do you guys expect Earl to form? The Atlantic seems shut down right now and I'd like to know what you guys think, as this dead Atlantic is frustrating for us Atlantic fans.



late july or AUG in tell then go out injoy the fire works
Personally I believe that Haiyan was the most violent tropical cyclone in modern history. It s very possible that Haiyan s lowest pressure was as low as 860 mb. While Patricia could have higher 1 min sustained winds I believe that pressure is a better indicator of the real cyclone s strength.
Raining pretty heavy outside now.I heard people attempting to pop fireworks but I guess it must have failed because i don't hear them anymore.I guess I should abide by my own saying "Nature does not care for our holidays and doesn't even know they exist".
Nepartak's got the green light (and nice banding features) - funktop enhancement :

Below, Nepartak around 2300 UTC, showing signs of intensification (screenshot). ADT estimates at the time : CI# = 4.4 / Pressure = 979mb / Vmax = 74.6kt.

It went from 1.5 to almost 4.5 in 48 hours. Minimum central pressure seems to have dropped rapidly in the meantime. Watch out, this could easily become one of the strongest storms this year (jan 2016-jan 2017). And I have no doubt many cat. 4-5 will roam the planet within this time frame.
Last Hurricane to Impact the U.S. has already been 2 years ago: Hurricane Arthur.
129. Tcwx2
It sure is going to be hot here in S Alabama. Highs 100F for the next 9 days!!!!! I can't recall that many straight days of 100 here...ever.
Earth atmo 2.0 is like that.
Quoting 128. Climate175:

Last Hurricane to Impact the U.S. has already been 2 years ago: Hurricane Arthur.


I think Hurricane Arthur was a strong TS at land fall
Quoting 131. Tazmanian:



I think Hurricane Arthur was a strong TS at land fall


It was a category two hurricane
ll be back with a post on the tropics later today.


I gust no new blog today
Quoting 133. Tazmanian:

ll be back with a post on the tropics later today.


I gust no new blog today


Nope not Today anyway lol

Taco :o)
Quoting 131. Tazmanian:



I think Hurricane Arthur was a strong TS at land fall


Nope. He was a Cat 2
Rain is putting a hamper on the 4th of July celebrations.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
138. vis0

Quoting 29. beell:



Climate clean-up-Aisle 3
(beell knows of the rising waters, comment is foe new comers)

There is, but also first the Nooks & Crannies ® (some developed when water where at higher levels many many years ago) will refill also the sponge like areas/land will soak some of the excess water,

But do not think of this as a excuses to procrastinate, think of it as nature giving humans a chance before land over those openings begin to become affected by salt water.

 (SANDY's salt water was a quick blow (high tide+storm surge compared to ocean rising higher than that for years) and look at all the damage it did to NYC's infrastructure]


....i wonder how fast Manhattan can be placed on stilts?