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Heat vs. Cold: Which Is More Dangerous for Kids in Cars?

By: Bob Henson 4:33 PM GMT on July 01, 2016

Not long ago, a friend’s simple query on Facebook triggered my own curiosity: why don’t we hear about children dying after being left in a vehicle on a very cold day? It’s a pertinent question, given the tragic consequences when small children (or pets) are inadvertently left in the car on a sunny, warm day. When it comes to the environment inside a closed vehicle, it appears that warm weather is indeed far riskier than cold weather, for a variety of reasons.

Jan Null (Department of Meteorology and Climate Science, San Jose State University) has tracked close to 700 deaths of children left in cars since 1998. However, he knows of only a couple of cases where children died from being in a cold vehicle. Null suggested I check with Dr. Leticia Ryan, an assistant professor of pediatrics at Johns Hopkins Children’s Center. Ryan agreed that the question was a good one: “Children are at increased risk for both hyperthermia [elevated body temperature] and hypothermia [reduced body temperature] in comparison to adults.” However, like Null, Ryan wasn’t aware of any research focused on the different responses to heat vs. cold in vehicle interiors.

To explore the question further, I held an email brainstorm with Rebecca Morss and Julie Demuth, both of whom study the intersections of weather, warnings, and society at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Morss and Demuth pointed out several factors that would presumably lead to a greater risk to children and pets left in cars during warmer times of the year. 

Sunshine can only warm a vehicle, regardless of the temperature outside. This is why it doesn’t have to be a scorching-hot day to produce deadly heat inside a closed car (see Figure 1). On a bright, cold winter day, the same effect could help keep a vehicle’s interior less chilly than it would otherwise get.


Figure 1. Even when temperatures outside are only 80°F, sunshine entering a closed vehicle can push the temperature to 109°F in just twenty minutes. After an hour, the car’s interior air can reach a blistering 123°F. Cracking windows does not reduce the ability of the air to reach such high temperatures. The sunshine entering the car rapidly heats up surfaces (the dashboard or steering wheel can reach 180 – 200°F on an 80°F day). These surfaces, in turn, heat up the interior through convection and conduction as well as by longwave radiation, in much the same way that an asphalt parking lot sends heat upward. An hour’s worth of warming is depicted in this QuickTime animation. Image credit: GM and Jan Null.


Being in a closed vehicle minimizes the effect of wind chill, which could otherwise exacerbate the bodily heat loss for a given air temperature.

—Unless a cold front is moving in, the outdoor temperature will typically rise during the course of a winter day, thus reducing the potential temperature drop within a vehicle.

—Morss speculates: “I can imagine why one is less likely to leave a child in a car on a cold day, because you'd be more likely to go back into your car to grab something (coat, mittens), or you'd have a cue when you got out of the car and felt the bitter cold that would make you think ‘did I give my child warm enough clothes today?’ and thus think about your child.”

A few stats and safety tips
Last year (2015) saw 24 vehicular heat stroke deaths, the least for any year since Null began compiling data in 1998. However, 2016 is off to a bad start, according to Null, with 16 deaths already recorded as of June 30. Null’s website noheatstroke.org includes a set of frequently updated statistics that bring home the problem vividly. Of the 661 such deaths recorded from 1998 through 2015, just over half involved children who were “forgotten,” many of them left in a vehicle by a parent or caregiver rushing to work in the morning. Latitude is not a guaranteed defense, as 2016 has already seen confirmed deaths as far north as Iowa and New York.

Here are Null’s safety recommendations:

Never leave a child unattended in a vehicle—not even for a minute!
—If you see a child unattended in a hot vehicle, call 911.
—Be sure that all occupants leave the vehicle when unloading. Don't overlook sleeping babies.
—Always lock your car and ensure children do not have access to keys or remote entry devices. Teach children that vehicles are never to be used as a play area.
—If a child is missing, always check the pool first, and then the car, including the trunk.
—Keep a stuffed animal in the carseat, and when the child is put in the seat, place the animal in the front with the driver. Or place your purse, briefcase, or cell phone in the back seat as a reminder that you have your child in the car.
—Make "look before you leave" a routine whenever you get out of the car.
—Have a plan that your childcare provider will call you if your child does not show up for school.


Don’t forget your furry companion!
Hundreds of pets are believed to die around the country after being left in hot cars. The Humane Society offers these tips on how you can help if you see a pet in a parked car on a sunny summer day:

—Take down the car's make, model and license-plate number.
—If there are businesses nearby, notify their managers or security guards and ask them to make an announcement to find the car's owner.
—If the owner can't be found, call the non-emergency number of the local police or animal control and wait by the car for them to arrive.

The American Veterinary Medicine Association suggests: “Before you put your pet in the vehicle, ask yourself if you really need to take your pet with you--and if the answer is no, leave your pet safely at home.”

Several states now have Good Samaritan hot-car laws that allow private citizens, in some circumstances, to break into motor vehicles if they notice a child or an animal is in jeopardy. Various types of hot-car laws are now on the books in 21 states, and bills are now pending in California and Michigan. The Animal Legal Defense Fund has compiled a useful state-by-state overview of the protections now in force and those being considered.

Eastern North Pacific is primed for tropical development next week
Long-range forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models continue to flag the possibility of one or more tropical cyclones developing next week over the eastern North Pacific. This region will be under the influence of a strong convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW) as well as an active Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), both of which will favor rising motion and tropical development in the eastern Pacific over the first few days of July. (See our Wednesday post for more background on CCKW and MJO activity.) Wind shear is weak to moderate across the region, and sea surface temperatures are 0.5°C to 2°C above average throughout the area north of about 8°N, despite the presence of cooler-than-average waters closer to the equator associated with the trend toward La Niña.


Figure 2. Infrared GOES-East satellite image for the eastern North Pacific, valid at 1515Z (11:15 AM EDT) Friday, July 1, 2016. The disturbed weather stretching from west to east is associated with an active monsoon trough. Image credit: NASA Earth Science Office.

The first in our potential series of East Pacific tropical cyclones is likely to be Invest 94E, now located well south of Acapulco, Mexico. In its 10 AM EDT Friday tropical weather outlook, the National Hurricane Center gave 94E a 30 percent chance of development by Sunday and an 80 percent chance by Wednesday. Another disturbance located further west has only a limited amount of convection (showers and thunderstorms) with it, but NHC gives it a 20 percent chance of development over the next five days. Several other weak centers of low pressure extend east along the monsoon trough that includes both of these systems (see Figure 2), yet it remains unclear which one(s) will have the best chance of development. NHC summed it up nicely in its 10 AM EDT Friday tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific: “Model guidance is consistently showing further development of one or more of these low pressure areas, but continues to be inconsistent regarding the details such as when, where and to what extent.” Whatever does develop over the next few days across the region will likely track well offshore and pose little or no threat to land.

Meanwhile, in the U.S., there are no large areas of significant severe weather anticipated for the holiday weekend. Very heavy rains (locally 4” to 6”) and a few severe storms are expected as a weak upper impulse traverses a frontal zone from Kansas to southern Illinois and Indiana, moving into the central Appalachians by Monday and Tuesday. Residents of West Virginia hard-hit by flooding last week will need to monitor this threat.

Jeff Masters will be back on deck next week. In the meantime, have a great weekend, everyone. If you’re in the U.S., Happy Fourth of July--and if you're a Canadian, Happy Canada Day!

Bob Henson


Figure 3. Central surface pressures in potential tropical cyclones depicted by members of the GEFS ensemble run from 06Z Friday, July 1, 2016, valid at 06Z Thursday, July 7. Each central pressure is in millibars, with the preceding “9” or “10” lopped off. Colors indicate the normalized spread, or how much the central pressures deviate from typical surface pressure. The predicted centers toward the west are associated with Invest 94E. Image credit: tropicaltidbits.com


Figure 4. Members of the GEFS ensemble run from 06Z Friday, July 1, 2016, show a variety of potential tracks for Invest 94E, all of which would take the system well away from the Mexican coastline.

Hurricane Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 498. TropicalAnalystwx13:

This is the appearance of a tropical cyclone that is soon to explosively intensify.




NHC's intensity forecast


INIT 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 85 KT 100 MPH

My Intensity Forecast
INIT 60MPH
12H 85MPH
24H 110MPH
36H 125MPH
48H 130MPH
72H 140MPH
96H 125MPH
120H 115MPH
Quoting 486. birdsrock2016:



On the news, they said that we would be around 94 degrees and near record heat . I live in Boca Raton, FL on the East coast . Source:
http://www.wptv.com/weather/forecast/todays-forec ast/south-florida-weather


Welcome to Houston like weather!

Here is our special statement

... Heat indices between 105 and 110 degrees continue to be possible
across portions of southeast Texas over the Holiday weekend and on
into much of the upcoming week...

The combination of gradually rising afternoon temperatures and high
dewpoints are expected to produce heat indices as high as 105 to 110
degrees across portions of southeast Texas over the Holiday weekend
and on into much of the upcoming week. Heat advisories might be needed.
Quoting 485. ElConando:



? The temps for next week should be hovering about average for this time of year. Last year was far hotter in the summer I remember seeing a lot of 95 degree highs.


Here's the 7-day forecast for my area, El-conando

.
Quoting 504. 62901IL:



404 not found


I posted a picture now so that you can see it.
Quoting 505. birdsrock2016:



I posted a picture now so that you can see it.


I saw it. Thanks.
Tropical Storm Nepartak:



HWRF:



GFS:



Models are in agreement that it'll track north of Taiwan before curving to the east - narrowly missing out on hitting China - and affecting South Korea/Japan as a Typhoon/Tropical Storm. The HWRF/GFS also show it affecting the Yaeyama islands and Miyako island at peak intensifity above, which'll affect ~100,000 or so people. Hopefully, with the great infrastructure of Japan, the islands and those living there will be ok.

P.S: Just to note, if the storm wobbles a bit further south it could directly hit Eastern China as a major - fingers crossed that doesn't happen.
Quoting 502. justmehouston:



Welcome to Houston like weather!

Here is our special statement

... Heat indices between 105 and 110 degrees continue to be possible
across portions of southeast Texas over the Holiday weekend and on
into much of the upcoming week...

The combination of gradually rising afternoon temperatures and high
dewpoints are expected to produce heat indices as high as 105 to 110
degrees across portions of southeast Texas over the Holiday weekend
and on into much of the upcoming week. Heat advisories might be needed.


II lived in San Antonio and Corpus Christi. I worked in construction and a chemical company. Both jobs kept me outside almost all day. The worst part of the day was always the morning hours (higher humidity, less wind). Usually by mid day, there was a decent breeze to cool me off.
That was the one saving grace compared to here in Florida. South Texas had a lot more wind and that really does make a difference when it's that hot.
Heat, humidity, and no wind is a killer.
Quoting 461. HurriHistory:



Nothing is FOR SURE when it comes to tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin. We may not see our next named storm until early September or perhaps later. On the other hand we could see two, mabey three named storms before the end of this month. No one person or computer model can tell us what will happen.
Yep...Especially the way the patterns are changing....And the Gulf Stream.
Quoting 507. Envoirment:

Tropical Storm Nepartak:



HWRF:



GFS:



Models are in agreement that it'll track north of Taiwan before curving to the east - narrowly missing out on hitting China - and affecting South Korea/Japan as a Typhoon/Tropical Storm. The HWRF/GFS also show it affecting the Yaeyama islands and Miyako island at peak intensifity above, which'll affect ~100,000 or so people. Hopefully, with the great infrastructure of Japan, the islands and those living there will be ok.

P.S: Just to note, if the storm wobbles a bit further south it could directly hit Eastern China as a major - fingers crossed that doesn't happen.


This storm could be historic
Notice the wind

Forecast for Fort Myers today
This AfternoonScattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 93. Heat index values as high as 103. South southeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms

Current conditions in Houston
Partly Cloudy
89%uFFFDF
32%uFFFDC
Humidity 63%
Wind Speed SW 13 G 20 mph
Barometer 30.00 in (1016.4 mb)
Dewpoint 75%uFFFDF (24%uFFFDC)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 99%uFFFDF (37%uFFFDC)
Last update 3 Jul 10:53 am CDT

Current conditons in Fort Myers
Partly Cloudy
90%uFFFDF
32%uFFFDC
Humidity 62%
Wind Speed W 8 mph
Barometer 30.14 in (1020.8 mb)
Dewpoint 75%uFFFDF (24%uFFFDC)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 101%uFFFDF (38%uFFFDC)
Last update 3 Jul 11:53 am EDT

Almost everything is the same (temp, humidity, dewpoint, etc). The only difference is the wind.
000
WTPZ23 KNHC 031436
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016
1500 UTC SUN JUL 03 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 110.3W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 110.3W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 109.8W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 12.1N 112.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 12.6N 114.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 13.1N 116.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 13.6N 118.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 14.6N 123.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 100SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 16.0N 127.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 17.3N 131.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 031432
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM AGATHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022016
1500 UTC SUN JUL 03 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 123.6W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 15SE 45SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 123.6W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 123.1W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.9N 125.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.5N 127.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.9N 129.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 19.2N 131.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 19.3N 134.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 123.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Quoting 500. birdsrock2016:



Sorry to make you angry PEdley,

Here is my 7- day forecast:






Least your getting some rain. I wasn't mad, did I shout? lol. Those lows totally suck.
At each advisory,
Blas is strengthening with advisory. The forecast is also getting stronger. Last advisory, it was 100 knots. Now it is 105 knots.
Why was Agatha so weak but now Blas is predicted to be strong, even though they are following a similar track?
Quoting 516. Adam2001:

Why was Agatha so weak but now Blas is predicted to be strong, even though they are following a similar track?


95E cheated and be came AGATHA 1st at 1st 95E was not even forecast to do any thing at all but 95E found that sweet spot and got upgraded too TD 2E 1st and then too AGATHA 94E was forecast too be AGATHA not BLAS
Quoting 514. PedleyCA:



Least your getting some rain. I wasn't mad, did I shout? lol. Those lows totally suck.

Exclamation points usually equal angry in virtual language, LOL. Yeah, I would much rather have your enjoyable nighttime 50's and 60's and deal with the heat in the daytime. These lows are even worse in South Florida because the humidity is almost 100% with no breeze and the night feels like almost 90 degrees these days.
Quoting 517. PedleyCA:




Wow, colder than South Florida now, LOL?
Quoting 482. moonlightcowboy:

Hey, Taz and all. Interesting twave and swirl down east of leeward. Not much shear currently, but some ahead and dry air. Also moving along rather quickly. Nice vorticity stacking through mid-levels and some convection topping over CoC. Probably won't make it statistically, but interesting to see and follow from that area this time of year. A harbinger of CV's to come? And that B/A high is killer. Happy and safe 4th holiday. Stay cool, all! :-)

Greetings..Long time since I saw ya post....Could be an active year....Hope you are well...:)
Quoting 482. moonlightcowboy:

Hey, Taz and all. Interesting twave and swirl down east of leeward. Not much shear currently, but some ahead and dry air. Also moving along rather quickly. Nice vorticity stacking through mid-levels and some convection topping over CoC. Probably won't make it statistically, but interesting to see and follow from that area this time of year. A harbinger of CV's to come? And that B/A high is killer. Happy and safe 4th holiday. Stay cool, all! :-)



Hey, moon! Where have you been hiding?


Wow! Look at this. Heading straight for Taiwan as Cat 5. Not good news.


designated no name is hanging in there in fact it seems to be generating convection. more important than no name will this be a trend in the mdr. regions? early tries get repeated
Lets see what the NHC has to say in the 2:00pm outlook.More than likely the same thing but it would be awesome to highlight this area so that we could get a few model runs on it from the statistical hurricane models.
Quoting 525. washingtonian115:

Lets see what the NHC has to say in the 2:00pm outlook.More than likely the same thing but it would be awesome to highlight this area so that we could get a few model runs on it from the statistical hurricane models.


we all ready have models for none named

i remember John Hope saying these weak low pressures can survive as long as they continue generating convection. once they stop poof
Quoting 519. birdsrock2016:


Exclamation points usually equal angry in virtual language, LOL. Yeah, I would much rather have your enjoyable nighttime 50's and 60's and deal with the heat in the daytime. These lows are even worse in South Florida because the humidity is almost 100% with no breeze and the night feels like almost 90 degrees these days.

50's are getting rare here...
Quoting 528. PedleyCA:


50's are getting rare here...


no there not you get them in the fall and winter times like NOV and DEC when the sun is the lowest in the sky and you get 50s at night in the summer moths when AM lower are swich too summer lowe and when winter comes the summer lowes be comes winter day time highs
Quoting 529. Tazmanian:



no there not you get them in the fall and winter times like NOV and DEC when the sun is the lowest in the sky and you get 50s at night in the summer moths when AM lower are swich too summer lowe and when winter comes the summer lowes be comes day time highs


We were not talking about the Fall or Winter......
Quoting 530. PedleyCA:



We were not talking about the Fall or Winter......


you said 50s are rare
Quoting 531. Tazmanian:



you said 50s are rare


Well, we were talking about summer temps...
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

There is just nothing around that can develop right now
Quoting 533. Hurricanes101:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

There is just nothing around that can develop right now


:(
Quoting 534. CaribBoy:



:(
You still have all of August and September......
Quoting 534. CaribBoy:



:(


Get any rain lately?
I think the general lack of convection in the Atlantic tropics and Caribbean is due to the lack of deep moisture and that combined with continued higher than normal trade winds.

Regarding heat vs cold what's more dangerous I definitely say heat. You can't strip down past your skin but you can keep adding layers until your warm.
Atmosphere pretty unstable in South Florida today. However, cloud cover looks like it'll prevent anything form getting too ramped up.
It's truly amazing watching the last few months on satellite imagery. It's almost as if the western Carib has a force field around stopping anything from coming into it.
EP, 03, 2016070318, , BEST, 0, 121N, 1109W, 55, 1001, TS
Quoting 544. HurricaneAndre:

Yeah, but all the models are leaning to a dead season. That's what the lead organizations rely on. Even with la nina, this season will be a bust. Nothing will happen this year.


I think we will wait on a higher authority before declaring the Atlantic season a bust.
Quoting 528. PedleyCA:


50's are getting rare here...


Blame it on Global warming, LOL
548. elioe
The forecast looks like our summer has been cancelled.



Well, at least tropical weather is getting more interesting with these WPac and EPac developments.
Remember its only the beginning of July. This season has barely started, just give it time.
Quoting 540. ElConando:

Atmosphere pretty unstable in South Florida today. However, cloud cover looks like it'll prevent anything form getting too ramped up.


Are you on the West Coast or East Coast of South Florida ? We had 0.02 inches of rain and a lot of thunder before the storms started to move inland and away from us.
Quoting 547. birdsrock2016:



Blame it on Global warming, LOL


Blame it on Summer time..
Quoting 549. Huracan94:

Remember its only the beginning of July. This season has barely started, just give it time.


My prediction of 20 named storms still stands for this season. we'll just have to wait until August to witness the best of the activity
553. Wrass
I remember. John Hope. Follow the Lead out flow. Because the rest of the storm follows that.So if the storm is pointed NW . Pointed. That's the direction..!
Quoting 551. PedleyCA:



Blame it on Summer time..


But with Global warming the average temps in the US have been rising, so that might be why your 50's are getting more rare in the Summer time.
Rapid Intensification IMMINENT.



Possible hint of an eye.
Quoting 555. 62901IL:

Rapid Intensification IMMINENT.



Possible hint of an eye.


Wow, wish we had this type of storm in the Atlantic right now. It would be really interesting to follow.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1121
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER OH VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 031845Z - 032045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO SHOULD INCREASE
BY LATE AFTERNOON AS MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF STORMS DEVELOP ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT.

DISCUSSION...A SHORT-LINE SEGMENT HAS PERSISTED DOWNSTREAM OF AN MCV
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST MO...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS INITIATING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-SOUTH ALONG A WEAK CONFLUENCE AXIS. IN SPITE
OF POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THAT ARCS OVER
FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. WITH A BELT OF
ENHANCED LOW/MID-LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLIES ATTENDANT TO THE MCV /AS
SAMPLED BY RECENT PAH VWP DATA/...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. A MESSY CLUSTER-TYPE MODE SHOULD DOMINATE WITHIN
THIS SETUP...WITH EMBEDDED SMALL-SCALE BOWING SEGMENTS AND TRANSIENT
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...BUT A TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT IN THE IL/KY/IND BORDER REGION.

..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 07/03/2016


ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...

LAT...LON 38688836 38828694 38618616 37898600 37398620 36588752
35898865 35888912 36218942 37388901 38088871 38688836
Quoting 556. birdsrock2016:



Wow, wish we had this type of storm in the Atlantic right now. It would be really interesting to follow.


Be Careful what you Wish for!!!!
Quoting 558. PedleyCA:



Be Careful what you Wish for!!!!


Of course, I wouldn't want it to impact land and cause damage and loss of life , but if it curves out to sea without impacting land , that would be fine.
Quoting 544. HurricaneAndre:

Yeah, but all the models are leaning to a dead season. That's what the lead organizations rely on. Even with la nina, this season will be a bust. Nothing will happen this year.


You know better than that. What models are you talking about anyway?
Hottest day of the year so far at my house in south Ft. Myers.
I've got 95 degrees with 50% humidity (heat index of 107 degrees) in the shade. Actually now it's 95.7 degrees and still climbing. Hope we get an afternoon T storm.



Quoting 552. birdsrock2016:



My prediction of 20 named storms still stands for this season. we'll just have to wait until August to witness the best of the activity

I say 17-9-3. So from here on out it'd be 13-8-3.
I could easily see people saying "this year is going to be dead" back in 2004 with no named storms until July 31.

TORNADO WATCH............................................. ...................
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 317
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
225 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
SOUTHWEST INDIANA
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 225 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS IN SHORT LINES AND CLUSTERS EXPECTED TO
FORM/INCREASE OVER WATCH AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME
STORMS...POTENTIALLY INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS...COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND A COUPLE TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO VERY
HEAVY RAIN AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
EVANSVILLE INDIANA TO 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PADUCAH KENTUCKY.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25025.


...CORFIDI
Quoting 567. Sfloridacat5:

I could easily see people saying "this year is going to be dead" back in 2004 with no named storms until July 31.




We have had 4 named storms already lol. I swear that the overall flow of this blog cannot seem to accept any sort of quiet time during the season without the rhetoric of a bust season coming out.
Quoting 562. Sfloridacat5:

Hottest day of the year so far at my house in south Ft. Myers.
I've got 95 degrees with 50% humidity (heat index of 107 degrees) in the shade. Actually now it's 95.7 degrees and still climbing. Hope we get a an afternoon T storm.




yes same here,a cooling thunderstorm would go good right now whew.
Need to hibernate and wake up on August 1st. Will always keep an eye out, but not really expecting much this month.
There is a potential super typhoon intensifying at this very moment, with a path that could bring it into some of the largest cities in the world, and everyone is moaning about how this season is a bust? The Atlantic basin is not the only one that matters.
Quoting 570. LargoFl:

yes same here,a cooling thunderstorm would go good right now whew.


Starting to fire off down in Collier county.
Nice rain shaft near Naples Harbor. Hope the storms build up the coast towards my area.
Quoting 572. tigerdeF:

There is a potential super typhoon intensifying at this very moment, with a path that could bring it into some of the largest cities in the world, and everyone is moaning about how this season is a bust? The Atlantic basin is not the only one that matters.




Weather spreading over Guam, Rota and Saipan as the system moves NW too
Quoting 535. washingtonian115:

You still have all of August and September......
How about October?
Quoting 575. NativeSun:

How about October?


We actually have most of July too lol
Quoting 544. HurricaneAndre:

Yeah, but all the models are leaning to a dead season. That's what the lead organizations rely on. Even with la nina, this season will be a bust. Nothing will happen this year.

please stop with this stuff its early july
Quoting 551. PedleyCA:



Blame it on Summer time..
Blame it on Shark Week. Actually this is pretty normal for this time of year.
Blas is going to be a beautiful looking cyclone. Already is. I think 120 is being conservative
580. beell
Quoting 559. birdsrock2016:



Of course, I wouldn't want it to impact land and cause damage and loss of life , but if it curves out to sea without impacting land , that would be fine.



Yeah, that would be great. Almost like watching Blas...
Quoting 572. tigerdeF:

There is a potential super typhoon intensifying at this very moment, with a path that could bring it into some of the largest cities in the world, and everyone is moaning about how this season is a bust? The Atlantic basin is not the only one that matters.



For a large percentage of the people living in the Caribbean, Gulf Coast, and East Coast of the U.S., the Atlantic Basin is the only basin that matters to them. That's just the way it is.

Quoting 572. tigerdeF:

There is a potential super typhoon intensifying at this very moment, with a path that could bring it into some of the largest cities in the world, and everyone is moaning about how this season is a bust? The Atlantic basin is not the only one that matters.

People on the blog mainly live in the USA and other countries around the Atlantic basin.The Atlantic basin is close to us and therefore we have a higher possibility of a storm affecting us.The Atlantic is what keeps the blog alive during the summer.Although my post is not politically correct it is the truth.When the last Earl (2010) was headed towards the east coast this blog was having 50+ post in under two minutes.As you can see today even though there are three storms in the pacific it is not generating that type of commentary.
Quoting 582. washingtonian115:

People on the blog mainly live in the USA and other countries around the Atlantic basin.The Atlantic basin is close to us and therefore we have a higher possibility of a storm affecting us.The Atlantic is what keeps the blog alive during the summer.Although my post is not politically correct it is the truth.When the last Earl (2010) was headed towards the east coast this blog was having 50 post in under two minutes.As you can see today even though there are three storms in the pacific it is not generating that type of commentary.


I can assume a new blog will be posted focusing on the activity in other parts of the World. But that won't change the main focus of the blog from the activity possibly forming closer to "home" in the Atlantic Basin.
Quoting 491. Grothar:



I saw it first! :)


Lol. Which it?
Quoting 498. TropicalAnalystwx13:

This is the appearance of a tropical cyclone that is soon to explosively intensify.


Agatha?

No ID on the graphics. C'mon people. We can can cause confusion for readers or we can make this blog great again.

Add, another Example
Quoting 555. 62901IL:

Rapid Intensification IMMINENT.



Possible hint of an eye.
Agatha




Blas

Quoting 584. Barefootontherocks:

Lol. Which it?Agatha?

No ID on the graphics. C'mon people. We can can cause confusion for readers or we can make this blog great again.

Add, another Example



The first one has the Lesser Antillles in it Duh, the other two are Blas, but yes it would be nice if they would throw a one word comment....
TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016
300 PM MDT SUN JUL 03 2016

Blas' cloud pattern has not changed appreciably in organization
since the previous advisory. Visible and microwave satellite
imagery suggests that the cyclone's low-level center is located at
the northern tip of a long band whose convective tops have been
slowly warming. This structure suggests that Blas' rate of
intensification is not as fast as was suspected earlier, possibly
due to some northeasterly shear and likely the cyclone's large size.
The initial intensity is set to 55 kt based on the latest Dvorak
intensity estimates of T3.5 from TAFB and SAB.

The initial motion estimate is a steady 285/11. There has been no
change to the track forecast philosophy since the previous
advisory. Blas is forecast to move west-northwestward throughout
the forecast period along the southern periphery of a deep-layer
subtropical ridge extending westward from northern Mexico. The
GFS and ECMWF solutions have come into much better agreement beyond
day 3, and the overall spread in the guidance is low through day 5.
The new NHC forecast track is shifted to the north some, and lies
very near the multi-model consensus.

There does not appear to be anything conspicuous on the large scale
that would prevent Blas from intensifying into a major hurricane
during the next few days, and a large one at that. The NHC
intensity forecast through day 3 is near or just below the
statistical guidance, which is unanimously calling for Blas to
become an intense hurricane. By 96 hours, even though the shear is
forecast to remain low, the cyclone should be moving over steadily
cooler waters and entering a drier and more stable environment. This
should promote a weakening trend that will likely become more rapid
by the end of the forecast period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 12.2N 111.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 12.8N 113.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 13.4N 115.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 13.9N 117.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 14.3N 120.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 15.5N 124.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 16.8N 128.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 18.4N 132.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
(quote added)
Quoting 586. PedleyCA:



The first one has the Lesser Antillles in it Duh, the other two are Blas, but yes it would be nice if they would throw a one word comment....

Lesser Antiles? John Q. would likely not recognize that, and I did not see it till you pointed it out.

Let these comments be a place where anyone can come for good information. Just asking that commenters identify the TC, invest, TD, blob... they comment about. Otherwise all they are doing is serving their own interests so they maybe later can blow their own horns... "Oh see, I said that would happen."

("not" was intended, left out, and added.)
Quoting 536. PedleyCA:



Get any rain lately?


Not much, but last year was still drier.


...
It is not our fault that some people failed geography in high school.One mass of thunderstorms is headed to land areas,specifically a chain of islands with south america in view while the other one is out in the middle of no where.
Quoting 590. CaribBoy:



Not much, but last year was still drier.


I haven't got any since the first week on May, Dry season here till Fall...
Quoting 592. PedleyCA:



I haven't got any since the first week on May, Dry season here till Fall...


Our june rainfall total was 9.2mm... or 0.4". (6 times less than average)

July rain so far : 8.5mm... or 0.3".
Quoting 497. PedleyCA:


WU has a Ghost Storm in the WPAC, don't click on it or you will get a server error...

It's in the app too. "Cat 2" with no other information.
A couple of test cases for the HWRF... First, with Blas, it hasn't been too aggressive with that storm, with most runs showing a peak at "only" Cat 2 status. Looked like Blas was about to explode earlier today but it's run into some problems as the 5PM discussion notes. So maybe the HWRF is onto something.



Second, it's been much more bullish on Nepartak, with many runs taking it to or close to Cat 5 intensity. We'll see how it does with that as well.

Fast trade winds

wind shear has drop in front of are none name

Not sure how accurate this map is.....
Dmin affecting the CATL wave...
600. elioe
Quoting 590. CaribBoy:



...


Which time zone is that?
Quoting 600. elioe:



Which time zone is that?


GMT-4
Quoting 600. elioe:



Which time zone is that?


Atlantic time zone
Sun is up over Tropical Storm Nepartak:



Models have shifted south with recent runs, having the storm hitting some Japanese islands, grazing the tip of Taiwan and then plowing into Eastern China as a powerful storm.

GFS:



ECMWF:



CMC:



The current JTWC forecast - Link

This has the potential to be quite devastating depending on its track. China/Taiwan/Japan will need to keep a very close eye on it.
Whatever it becomes its going north
Quoting 600. elioe:



Which time zone is that?
605. elioe
Quoting 601. CaribBoy:



GMT-4


My first thought was that it would be CEST, then I started to wonder how the image could be so old... :)
We could use it down here....just the setup the last few years.
Quoting 573. Sfloridacat5:



Starting to fire off down in Collier county.
Nice rain shaft near Naples Harbor. Hope the storms build up the coast towards my area.

Typical early july lull in Atlantic activity. Give it a week or two, I bet we see 2 storms before July is behind us.

Quoting 581. Sfloridacat5:



For a large percentage of the people living in the Caribbean, Gulf Coast, and East Coast of the U.S., the Atlantic Basin is the only basin that matters to them. That's just the way it is.



There may be some truth to that, but then again, the posters on this blog tend to be weather freaks/geeks for whom any storm anywhere is interesting. The laity only show up when something's hitting close to home.
NWS Tiyan Guam
TROPICAL STORM NEPARTAK (02W)
===============================

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH remains in effect for Fais and Ulithi in Yap State
Quoting 603. Envoirment:

Sun is up over Tropical Storm Nepartak:

Models have shifted south with recent runs, having the storm hitting some Japanese islands, grazing the tip of Taiwan and then plowing into Eastern China as a powerful storm.
GFS:

ECMWF:

CMC:

The current JTWC forecast - Link

This has the potential to be quite devastating depending on its track. China/Taiwan/Japan will need to keep a very close eye on it.

Oh it's beginning to remind me of Dujuan... Even if it's still far away, I tend to trust the models much more when they're almost in consensus on a given storm track. It seems there's no skilled outlier showing a different option at this time. Wouldn't it be a fairly typical track if it was aimed at Taiwan first (Gold medal of the most cursed place on earth for the monstruous landfalls that occur fequently there, sharing it with the Philippines of course) ? Fortunately for them, at the moment I think there's a good probability it will pass just north of Taiwan, but at that range, nothing's for sure... we'll see. Taiwan is of great use to mainland China, in a way ; its mountains are sometimes able to rip apart the most powerful typhoons before they brush/hit the continent. (Edit ... But it doesn't necessarily spare them heavy rains and other sev. weather events associated with typhoons.) Dujuan was a good example. Dujuan (sept. 2015) :

So, a northward shift in the track is not necessarily good news beyond Taiwan...
Quoting 547. birdsrock2016:
Blame it on Global warming, LOL

Quoting 551. PedleyCA:
Blame it on Summer time..


Blame it on the boogie

Sorry, couldn't resist :D

As the WU saying goes, doesn't have to be a busy year, just have to get that 1 storm that makes a disaster. Despite such a slow start to the WPAC, this could be one of those storms for somewhere. Looking likely it's going to be a pretty small system at least, that surely helps.
Almost Pouch Tracking time.
Quoting 603. Envoirment:

Sun is up over Tropical Storm Nepartak:



Models have shifted south with recent runs, having the storm hitting some Japanese islands, grazing the tip of Taiwan and then plowing into Eastern China as a powerful storm.

GFS:



ECMWF:



CMC:



The current JTWC forecast - Link

This has the potential to be quite devastating depending on its track. China/Taiwan/Japan will need to keep a very close eye on it.

Wow look at the outflow, that storm is going to intensify quickly
Once the MJO moves in, we should see two storms form in the Atlantic.
Wow, watching KWTV radar in Oklahoma, and you can see an atmospheric river effect as moisture is being pulled into the line of storms building along this boundary. It's absolutely soupy outside, and it's amazing to watch this on tv.
Quoting 614. HurricaneAndre:

Once the MJO moves in, we should see two storms form in the Atlantic.


I say will see a lot of storms from late July on word
Once the MJO moves in, we should see two storms form in the Atlantic.

Gusts 135 KT from 72 hours on. Are you serious ? Apparently the W. Pac has had enough of its typhoon drought. And decided to go full on...
"(...) LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 25.8N 123.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT (...)"
(From the JTWC's Warning Text about NEPARTAK - issued July 03/2100 UTC) Link
Nepartak

Quoting 617. HurricaneAndre:

Once the MJO moves in, we should see two storms form in the Atlantic.


You said that all ready
621. beell
Quoting 599. CaribBoy:

Dmin affecting the CATL wave...


Along with some short-term southwesterly shear and a stable boundary layer to the east (indicated by the marine-layer stratus clouds). Not as much turning along the wave axis compared to yesterday/this morning (local time).

Tropical wave Noname (Non-uh-MAY). It's french-near 15N, 50W.


20-30 knots on the CIMSS product


Quoting 612. Climate175:

Almost Pouch Tracking time.
When is that by the way.
Quoting 616. Tazmanian:



I say will see a lot of storms from late July on word


On whose word?
Quoting 619. Grothar:

Nepartak



Damn... I can see Dujuan's ghost 8-C. Not exactly the same track/intensity, but it comes close. Calm down now, it's just a forecast. * Runs away from the computer ---->
Quoting 619. Grothar:

Nepartak




Woof. That blob escalated quickly.
Quoting 615. gunhilda:

Wow, watching KWTV radar in Oklahoma, and you can see an atmospheric river effect as moisture is being pulled into the line of storms building along this boundary. It's absolutely soupy outside, and it's amazing to watch this on tv.
Even more amazing to watch storms build in the sky.
:)
a oh lot of nothing going on out there


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brennan
Quoting 622. HurricaneAndre:

When is that by the way.
Around the middle of July.
NWS Tiyan Guam
Tropical Storm 02W (NEPARTAK)
800 AM CHST MON JUL 4 2016
====================================

..Tropical Storm Nepartak nearing closest point of approach to Guam

The Tropical Storm Watch for Fais and Ulithi in Yap State has been cancelled

Fais and Ulithi
------------------------
.Precautionary/preparedness actions...
Tropical Storm Nepartak continues northwest and will maintain a track passing well north of Fais and Ulithi. Current track and forecast will keep damaging winds north of these locations today. Winds will begin to subside late this afternoon. Seas in the area will remain hazardous at least through this evening. Listen for updated information. Do not attempt inter-island travel the next couple days.

...Wind information...
Southwest winds of 20 to 30 mph will decrease to between 15 and 25 mph later this afternoon and will continue to subside this evening and overnight while shifting to the south.

...Storm surge and surf information...
Seas of 5 to 7 feet this morning will peak at hazardous levels of 7 to 9 feet today as "Nepartak" passes to the northeast. Surf will begin to subside early tonight.

Coastal inundation of around 1 foot is possible along south and west facing shores through tonight.

...Other storm effects...
Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are possible through Tuesday morning.
I've published a blog discussing our Pacific cyclones:

Link
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
Storm Warning
TROPICAL STORM NEPARTAK (T201601)
9:00 AM JST July 4 2016
==========================
Near Marianas Islands

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Nepartak (996 hPa) located at 11.8N 142.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 10 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===========
150 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 15.5N 137.1E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea East of the Philippines
48 HRS: 19.1N 130.7E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East of the Philippines
72 HRS: 22.4N 124.7E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea South Of Okinawa
TS Blas...

Quoting 632. GeoffreyWPB:

TS Blas...


''

Are you sure?
Land Blob



Nepartak

636. beell
Quoting 634. Grothar:

Land Blob





Blob Land



beell, don't ever lose your sense of humor! We all need a good laugh before beddy-bye. That was funny
"He who make fun of blob find blob land on his head."

(Found in a fortune cookie)
Do you see the double spiral ? Duju... Hmm sorry Nepartak, captured at 0149 UTC :

(Rapid Scan Floater) - Hi.8 sat imagery
Quoting 635. Grothar:

Nepartak



Where is Taiwan??

That's an ominous picture.
Quoting 634. Grothar:

Land Blob




I smell Earl.
Quoting 619. Grothar:

Nepartak




Man that is a devastating track forecast. Thankfully there are several days of uncertainty before that becomes a reality.
With Nepartak, it's better to be ready to wake up with a monster in the W. Pac. later on... It looks like intensification just resumed after a break. Of course, too early to tell a blip from the trend, but I'd say the perfect storm is brewing there.
Quoting 641. unknowncomic:

I smell Earl.


....peee-yeeew! 😜 Maybe he will stay out to sea!
Quoting 641. unknowncomic:

I smell Earl.

That is a MASSIVE wave.
Quoting 640. LongIslandBeaches:


Where is Taiwan??

That's an ominous picture.


Off the coast of China :)
may need too watch this ULL or upper level low has it moves in too the gulf on monday i wounder if model runs dos any thing with it it all so looks too be head for LA or TX looking like some where in TX has a land fall point for this low did t the GFS had some in for TX around july 5th or so be for it drop it i wounder if this upper level low was it



the ULL or upper level low is heading in too low wind shear and could work it way down too the surface like JQ did






not sure if am looking at this right but it look like it dos have some in at 850mb


Embellished on a Himawari of Nepartak to better show it's nature..
Quoting 612. Climate175:

Almost Pouch Tracking time.

That sounds like something you'd do in Australia.
Quoting 626. Barefootontherocks:

Even more amazing to watch storms build in the sky.
:)

I do that, too.


Blobzilla?
I have a question, why aren't the models hinting anything over here, despite the mjo,cckw, and the mostly favorable conditions.
Quoting 653. HurricaneAndre:

I have a question, why aren't the models hinting anything over here, despite the mjo,cckw, and the mostly favorable conditions.


Key: MOSTLY favorable conditions and there has to be something to develop... We could dive deeper if you want?
The prominent spiral band extending west of Blas' center was not enough to combat the dry air slot earlier this afternoon. However, since that time, the central dense overcast has expanded and the center has become less exposed to the outside environment. Blas should attain hurricane intensity over the next few hours and probably begin a period of rapid intensification sometime today.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
Storm Warning
TROPICAL STORM NEPARTAK (T201601)
15:00 PM JST July 4 2016
==========================
Near Marianas Islands

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Nepartak (994 hPa) located at 12.6N 141.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 16 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===========
150 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 16.3N 135.5E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea East of the Philippines
48 HRS: 19.7N 129.1E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East of the Philippines
72 HRS: 22.7N 123.6E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea South Of Okinawa
Quoting 606. 19N81W:

We could use it down here....just the setup the last few years.



Hey you can't complain now

Right now pouring rain and lightning and thunderstorms like I have not see in donkeys year

Oh damn this is like picture perfect quality lightning
Quoting 653. HurricaneAndre:

I have a question, why aren't the models hinting anything over here, despite the mjo,cckw, and the mostly favorable conditions.


Wave that's been in question in the Atlantic may, in the five day window, find more conducive shear conditions. Will convection remain, will the shear change? Stay tuned.
Quoting 653. HurricaneAndre:

I have a question, why aren't the models hinting anything over here, despite the mjo,cckw, and the mostly favorable conditions.

The MJO and CCKW are only increase the odds of development and it is still being researched how these factors influence the environment. It is still early June and the wave is entering the cyclone graveyard, conditions just aren't that great, there is a ton of dry air over the MDR and shear is pretty high over the Caribbean, just wait, Climatalogically we are guaranteed another storm
Quoting 640. LongIslandBeaches:


Where is Taiwan??

That's an ominous picture.

It overlaps with Chinese Taipei
Good morning from Germany with uneventful weather. Different conditions in Asia with its monsoon, though:

Flooding kills more than 180 people in central and southern China
BBC, 47 minutes ago

Dozens killed by floods across Pakistan and India
CNN, by Steve Visser and Sophia Saifi, Updated 0650 GMT
I notice that this 4th of July that the pacific area suddenly became very interesting with 4 storms raging about now.

We had 44.2/C in Cordoba about 100 miles north of me yesterday 111.5/F.
Probably some sort of a record or if not just a very hot day in the whole area with Seville at 42/C, or 107.6/F
Quoting 661. barbamz:

Good morning from Germany with uneventful weather. Different conditions in Asia with its monsoon, though:

Flooding kills more than 180 people in central and southern China
BBC, 47 minutes ago

Dozens killed by floods across Pakistan and India
CNN, by Steve Visser and Sophia Saifi, Updated 0650 GMT

A bit the tip of the melting iceberg for flooding this year so far.
Here's a bit from the article:-

"Between 10cm and 50cm of rain has fallen in seven provinces, and storms stretching 1,600km (1,000 miles) are sweeping across central and southern China.

At least 45 people are missing and 33 million are affected, officials say."

I am trying to imagine 50 CMS of rain, or about 20 inches over a large area, not localised!
The most have ever seen in a short time was 11 inches and that cause so much damage jaws almost had to be wired shut from dropping at the sight of the devastation, so 20 inches is as far as I can see unimaginable until its personally experienced.
664. IDTH
Good morning! Yesterday I had my first camping experience and boy it was a learning experience as we had two storms go over us, with the second one being an absolute lightning maker right over our heads. It was far too close for comfort, also being on a small island gave me that sense of helplessness. Nonetheless, it was fun and we (I already knew) know now not to go on a day where rain chances are high.
1015mb low assoc. with the t.w. moving into the leewards. thats a weak low pressure.
Nepartak is beginning to get its act together
If you look at the clould tops, it has tightened into a circle within the past 6 hours, and is starting to develop an eye.

Nepartak

669. MahFL
Quoting 653. HurricaneAndre:

I have a question, why aren't the models hinting anything over here, despite the mjo,cckw, and the mostly favorable conditions.


The MJO forecast is now a bit weaker.
NWS morning discussion........the TUTT cell moving into the
FL straits/SE Gulf later today. Am a bit concerned that the
position and potential resulting convective enhancement from this
TUTT may result in a few stronger storms over our southern zones
later today. By definition...a TUTT cell is composed of cooler
temperatures aloft (generally above 500mb). These cooler temps
will increase upper level lapse rates...and potentially add CAPE
to the hail growth zone. Enhance updrafts in the mid/upper levels
are going to aid in both hail growth, but also lightning
frequency, and potential for precip loading and resulting strong
winds upon updraft collapse. Other feature of the TUTT to mention
is a healthy jet streak shown by the GFS/ECMWF nosing up over
southern FL this afternoon. The position of this feature places
our southern areas under a zone of diffluence...which will also
help with updraft strength. Do not anticipate widespread severe
weather or anything, but pulse storms do not need much extra
enhancement to the environment for a few to get stronger than
normal.
Pouch
xx/xx/xx

674. elioe
We seem to have steadily intensifying Hurricane Blas.
Quoting 673. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Pouch
xx/xx/xx


Nice big wave coming off there, it definitely is Pouch worthy.
you must live in the only place in Cayman that gets hurricanes and thunderstorms and rain by your posts on here....no rain where I live for at least a week or more and 1000 degrees in between...
we are in a decent amount of moisture today so maybe this atmosphere can make a rain cloud today
Quoting 657. wunderkidcayman:



Hey you can't complain now

Right now pouring rain and lightning and thunderstorms like I have not see in donkeys year

Oh damn this is like picture perfect quality lightning
Quoting 675. Climate175:

Nice big wave coming off there, it definitely is Pouch worthy.

once we get it in the water we see
but yeah its worth a watch and see for the moment anyway
transitions from land too water normally does the number on these waves after coming off
later today after midnight we see how it looks
it will melt over the atlantic......
Quoting 641. unknowncomic:

I smell Earl.
Quoting 674. elioe:

We seem to have steadily intensifying Hurricane Blas.

yeah its found the spot for now seems erratic with her deep spin almost spinning within a spin



TXPZ21 KNES 041217
TCSENP

A. 03E (BLAS)

B. 04/1200Z

C. 12.9N

D. 113.9W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SSMI

H. REMARKS...DT=5.0 BASED ON BL EMBEDDED GRAY SHADE. PT=4.0. MET=4.5. FT
IS BASED ON PT. 04/1027Z SSMI SHOWS NASCENT EYE.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

04/1027Z 12.9N 113.6W SSMI


...SCHWARTZ



nas·cent
ˈnāsənt,ˈnasənt/Submit
adjective
(especially of a process or organization) just coming into existence and beginning to display signs of future potential.
682. beell
Should be an official hurricane any minute now...



TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016
300 AM MDT MON JUL 04 2016

During the past few hours, the satellite appearance of Blas has changed from consisting of primarily a long curved band to a large central dense overcast (CDO) feature. Recent AMSU data showed that a nearly closed mid-level eye feature with a diameter of about 35 nmi has also developed within the southwestern portion of the CDO. A 0420 UTC ASCAT pass revealed surface winds near 50 kt in the northeastern quadrant and a radius of maximum winds of about 30 nmi. UW-CIMSS ADT estimates were near 55 kt. These data support an intensity of 55 kt at 0600 UTC. However, since that time the satellite signature has improved, so the advisory intensity has been increased to 60 kt.

The initial motion estimate remains a steady 285/10 kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast reasoning and the latest NHC model guidance suite remains tightly packed. Therefore, the new forecast track is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track due to the subtropical ridge to the north of Blas remaining strong throughout the entire forecast period. The new NHC forecast closely follows the consensus model TVCE and basically lies down the middle of the guidance envelope.

The atmospheric and oceanic environment is expected to be quite favorable for Blas to strengthen during the next 48-60 hours. Since the global models are forecasting Blas' outflow pattern to gradually expand and become more symmetrical, along with the development of both poleward and equator outflow channels, a period of rapid intensification is expected for at least the next 24 hours. Blas is expected to achieve its peak intensity around 48 hours or so when the vertical wind shear is forecast to be low at around 5 kt. After that, gradual weakening should begin by 72 hours when Blas will be moving over sub-26C SSTs, creating cold upwelling/mixing beneath the cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is well above the consensus model IVCN, and closely follows the LGEM statistical-dynamical intensity model.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
684. beell
nrt,
Any idea why Blas's forecast discussion uses MDT instead of PDT?

TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016
300 AM MDT MON JUL 04 2016
New forcast numbers for 2016 are 8 named storms 2 tropical storms and 1 cane.... should remain very quiet trough 2 week of august when wind shear is excpected to blow up
Quoting 685. thewrongforcastagain:

New forcast numbers for 2016 are 8 named storms 2 tropical storms and 1 cane.... should remain very quiet trough 2 week of august when wind shear is excpected to blow up

Annnnnd this is based on what again?
Quoting 686. washingtonian115:

Annnnnd this is based on what again?


We already have 4 named storms. There is no way we are only going to have 4 more named storms this season.
Quoting 687. Sfloridacat5:



We already have 4 named storms. There is no way we are only going to have 4 more named storms this season.


A word to the wise, anytime you see someones username referring an incorrect hurricane season forecast, they are absolutely, 100% a troll.

689. beell
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BLAS ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016
900 AM MDT MON JUL 04 2016

...BLAS NOW A HURRICANE...

...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 114.4W
ABOUT 725 MI...1170 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
Wunderkid........I retract! I have found out this morning that it did rain and lighting last night over a very narrow part of the Island...missed us as usual but did knock out the surge protector at my warehouse/office...and obviously standing water but sadly missed us again...
Quoting 676. 19N81W:

you must live in the only place in Cayman that gets hurricanes and thunderstorms and rain by your posts on here....no rain where I live for at least a week or more and 1000 degrees in between...
we are in a decent amount of moisture today so maybe this atmosphere can make a rain cloud today

The tropical Atlantic is just so boring. I was expecting more convection with the wave east of the Lesser Antilles this morning. But no, what we are seeing instead is a struggling anemic system .... Will it rain? Probably just a few drops... let's see..
Happy 4th of July to those in the U.S. and Happy Normal Monday to those who aren't! :)
Quoting 692. CaribBoy:

The tropical Atlantic is just so boring. I was expecting more convection with the wave east of the Lesser Antilles this morning. But no, what we are seeing instead is a struggling anemic system .... Will it rain? Probably just a few drops... let's see..


dont you love it
Quoting 692. CaribBoy:

The tropical Atlantic is just so boring. I was expecting more convection with the wave east of the Lesser Antilles this morning. But no, what we are seeing instead is a struggling anemic system .... Will it rain? Probably just a few drops... let's see..
Gee, you'd almost think those folks at the NHC know what they're talking about when the write stuff like:

"For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days."

;-)
its early july guys late july and AUG is when will see most of the storms in tell then no reason to be on here on day go in joy the 4th
Quoting 663. PlazaRed:


A bit the tip of the melting iceberg for flooding this year so far.
Here's a bit from the article:-

"Between 10cm and 50cm of rain has fallen in seven provinces, and storms stretching 1,600km (1,000 miles) are sweeping across central and southern China.

At least 45 people are missing and 33 million are affected, officials say."

I am trying to imagine 50 CMS of rain, or about 20 inches over a large area, not localised!
The most have ever seen in a short time was 11 inches and that cause so much damage jaws almost had to be wired shut from dropping at the sight of the devastation, so 20 inches is as far as I can see unimaginable until its personally experienced.



https://youtu.be/ibeJlYiMz9w

A lot of water will kill you!
698. beell

(click any image to open in new window)
Quoting 686. washingtonian115:

Annnnnd this is based on what again?


your feeding a troll
Quoting 684. beell:

nrt,
Any idea why Blas's forecast discussion uses MDT instead of PDT?

TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016
300 AM MDT MON JUL 04 2016


2015seasonChanges

6) Use of local time for eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Advisory Products

NHC will begin referencing the time of day in certain eastern Pacific products using the time
zone in which the storm is located.
701. beell
Quoting 700. nrtiwlnvragn:



2015seasonChanges

6) Use of local time for eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Advisory Products

NHC will begin referencing the time of day in certain eastern Pacific products using the time
zone in which the storm is located.


duh...Blas is or was (just barely) in MDT!
Thanks!
Yellow donut rolling on the table :

Nepartak xx/xx/xx - Taiwan and East China's coasts are visible in the upper left corner of the picture, though barely noticeable (look for the white line).
JeffMasters has created a new entry.