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Tornado and Derecho Threat from Midwest to Appalachians

By: Bob Henson 4:49 PM GMT on June 22, 2016

A near-classic early-summer sequence of potentially tornadic storms followed by destructive straight-line winds is in the cards for the Midwest on Wednesday afternoon and evening, with the wind-packing storms possibly approaching the mid-Atlantic states on Thursday morning. In its Day 1 outlook updated at 12:30 PM EDT Wednesday, NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center is calling for a moderate risk of severe weather (the second highest of SPC’s five risk categories) from northern Illinois into western Ohio. Lesser risk categories extend to the Washington, D.C. area. The event will unfold along a warm front extending east-southeast from a surface low in Iowa through the risk corridor. A very humid, unstable air mass lodged against the front will provide plenty of fuel for severe storms, and a strong jet stream oriented parallel to the front will keep the storms moving at a rapid pace as they eventually congeal into a large mesoscale convective system (MCS).

While there is a real risk of strong tornadoes on Wednesday, especially in and near northern Illinois, an even larger area will be vulnerable to potentially damaging winds produced by the expected MCS. The high-resolution HRRR model suggests a large MCS will be consolidating and pushing rapidly southeast across Ohio around midnight Wednesday night (see Figure 2 below). This MCS may produce a derecho, a large area of thunderstorm-generated high winds that propagates rapidly over distances of 250 miles or more. Longer-range models bring the MCS into West Virginia and Pennsylvania overnight, with the potential for storms moving into or regenerating across the Washington, D.C./Delmarva area on Thursday morning. Depending on how the first batch of storms evolves, another round of severe storms could pop along the front from Kentucky to the mid-Atlantic on Thursday (NOAA/SPC has a slight risk for this area in its Day 2 outlook).


Figure 1. WU depiction of NOAA/SPC severe weather risk areas as of mid-morning Wednesday, June 22, 2016, valid through 8:00 AM EDT Thursday, June 23.


Figure 2. In its run from 14Z (10:00 AM EDT) Wednesday, June 22, 2016, the high-resolution HRRR model depicts a large thunderstorm complex moving rapidly across Ohio at 05Z (1:00 AM EST) Thursday, June 23. Such model predictions are not intended to be exact depictions of where thunderstorms will actually be located. Image credit: www.tropicaltidbits.com

A whopper of a wind-producer
The term “derecho” gained wide notice after an especially powerful one moved from northern Illinois to the mid-Atlantic coast in a matter of hours on June 29-30, 2012 (see Figure 3). That derecho, one of the strongest documented in North America, caused almost $3 billion in damage and took 28 lives. Millions were affected by power outages that lasted for days in some areas, and countless trees were uprooted. At first glance, it might seem that models are painting a scenario for Wednesday night bearing some resemblance to the 2012 pattern. However, that event was fed by low-level heat and moisture unprecedented for late June; only a few hours before the high winds struck, Washington, D.C., had set a monthly record high of 104°F. Surface temperatures along the front won’t be as extreme in this case, which suggests less chance of a similarly potent event. The timing of the upper-level impulse that will propel Wednesday night’s storms is also less favorable for bringing the MCS across the Appalachians before the typical early-morning reduction in atmospheric instability. As shown in Figure 5 below, derechos are much more common from Illinois to Ohio than further east.


Figure 3. Composite radar image showing the progress of the intense derecho that swept from the Chicago area to Washington, D.C. on the night of June 29, 2012. Covering about 600 miles in just 10 hours, the derecho produced hundreds of severe wind gusts, with peak winds of 80 to 100 mph. Image credit: Greg Carbin/NWS Storm Prediction Center.


Figure 4. A thunderstorm complex associated with an incipient derecho moves into LaPorte, Indiana, on the afternoon on June 29, 2012. Image credit: Kevin Gould/NOAA, courtesy NASA Earth Observatory

Tonight’s derecho threat is right down the climatological alley
In a weather.com article published on Wednesday morning, Jon Erdman shows us just how well today’s event lines up with climatology. Erdman spotlights a new study by Corey Guastini and Lance Bosart (University at Albany, State University of New York), published in the April 2016 issue of Monthly Weather Review, that examines 256 U.S. warm-season derechos between 1996 and 2013. Figure 5 below shows the preferred corridor, extending from northern Illinois to Ohio, with much less frequent activity further east. “Northeastern Illinois is ground zero for warm-season progressive derechos," Bosart said.


Figure 5. The number of derechos observed within 10,000-square-kilometer boxes (about 60 by 60 miles) during the May-August interval from 1996 to 2013. Image credit: Corey T. Guastini and Lance F. Bosart, Analysis of a Progressive Derecho Climatology and Associated Formation Environments. Monthly Weather Review, April 2016, (c) American Meteorological Society.

What exactly is a derecho?
In Spanish, derecho has several meanings, including “straight.” Gustavo Hinrichs adopted the term in 1883 to describe a type of thunderstorm-related wind he dubbed “the straight blow of the prairies." [Derecho contrasts with the Spanish tornar, "to turn," as in a tornado--but we don't know if Hinrichs intended this contrast.] Hinrichs published at least one scientific article on derechoes, but the phenomenon did not get widespread research attention until a century later. Eminent severe storms forecaster Bob Johns played a key role in reviving the concept in a landmark 1987 paper with William Hirt. It was only after reviewing a number of “northwest flow events” that Johns and Hirt discovered and adopted the earlier term. In a 2007 essay, Johns describes how the derecho concept originated and evolved. The current definition of “derecho” in the AMS Glossary is “a widespread convectively induced straight-line windstorm. Specifically, the term is defined as any family of downburst clusters produced by an extratropical mesoscale convective system.” In order to place an event as a derecho in the NWS Storm Data archive, wind damage and/or wind gusts of at least 50 knots (57 mph) must extend along a band at least 250 miles long, with at least three reports of gusts reaching 65 knots (74 mph) separated by at least 40 miles.

In the June 2016 issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, SPC’s Stephen Corfidi and colleagues propose narrowing the definition to focus on progressive-type derechos, the ones that carve out a single, well-defined swath of high wind, as opposed to other thunderstorm-driven high wind events that tend to be scattered over larger areas. The latter could be called “squall-line windstorms,” they suggest. “Used in this way, “squall line” would realize a renaissance of sorts; the term also would come to be associated with a more distinct meteorological phenomenon than in years past.”

We’ll be following the severe weather this afternoon and evening in a WU liveblog.

Bob Henson


Severe Weather Tornado Derecho Extreme Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

The southwest Caribbean disturbance is looking better and better as it treks northwestward off Honduras. Getting that witches hair look. Anybody know what the shear situation will be like as it approaches Yucatan. Is this the system that the GFS is placing off the Texas-La coast on Fourth of July weekend?
Thanks Mr Henson! Good blog to read for lunch
Thanks for the blog.

The 12z GFS shows a Category 1 hurricane hitting Louisiana. Shh, don't tell Kori.
Quoting 3. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Thanks for the blog.

The 12z GFS shows a Category 1 hurricane hitting Louisiana. Shh, don't tell Kori.
LOL my boy kori will be in heaven!
GFS never fails to impress when it comes to doom
Very interesting, thanks for the update!


Wow! looks like we have ourselves a very impressive looking tropical disturbance developing in the NW Caribbean and it's really getting it's act together very fast. Time for the NHC to get out the yellow crayon and make their mark. Nice banding features already taking shape. Could this be the birth of Earl?
Thanks Mr. Henson!
The usual doom like CMC showing no doom at all in the Atlantic but shows a few storms developing in the East pacific. GFS showing doom hitting Louisiana.
If this scenario happens, that could be a powerful tropical storm/weak category 1 hurricane (980 mb or greater).
If it pans out I am estimating winds of 70 mph

Quoting 5. washingtonian115:

GFS never fails to impress when it comes to doom


11. IDTH
Quoting 7. HurriHistory:



Wow! looks like we have ourselves a very impressive looking tropical disturbance developing in the NW Caribbean and it's really getting it's act together very fast. Time for the NHC to get out the yellow crayon and make their mark. Nice banding features already taking shape.



Quoting 9. IDTH:

The usual doom like CMC showing no doom at all in the Atlantic but shows a few storms developing in the East pacific. GFS showing doom hitting Louisiana.
13. IDTH
LOL



Two words: HOLY CRAP!!!!
Quoting 11. IDTH:





It's mother nature giving you a tickle and she laughs and the nhc is in the act too.
Thanks Bob. Take care up there everyone.
Quoting 1. Houdude:

The southwest Caribbean disturbance is looking better and better as it treks northwestward off Honduras. Getting that witches hair look. Anybody know what the shear situation will be like as it approaches Yucatan. Is this the system that the GFS is placing off the Texas-La coast on Fourth of July weekend?


No, that would be a subsequent wave.
Quoting 15. Tcwx2:


Two words: HOLY CRAP!!!!

Two words! 336 Hours!
Quoting 18. Patrap:




Remember folks, this Hurricane is the reason Patrap paid for membership, he liked them 30 radar frames. :P
336/24=14
Quoting 20. jeffs713:


Two words! 336 Hours!
one word#GFS!
Can we hold off a bit on this developing derecho? I have a 4:19 flight from Columbus, OH, heading home to Pensacola. It feels strange to be evacuating to Florida in advance of a storm! I've got 3 hours to kill at the airport. A rough flight is easier after a few beers!
Quoting 21. ElConando:

''Remember folks, this Hurricane is the reason Patrap paid for membership, he liked them 30 radar frames. :P''

I nominate ElConando to chair the wu bloggers Nola convention in november.

All in favor post 7.

All against..post 13.
....7
Interesting how the GFS always starts out by dooming us here in Florida then ends up somewhere else, another year of teases by the GFS? I will take it over a direct hit. Hoping for no landfills anywhere in the US.
Quoting 23. help4u:
one word#GFS!

It's nice to have some semblance of long range consistency this year for once. We had lead times of over a week for Alex, Bonnie, Colin, and Danielle. If the system currently shown on the GFS comes to fruition, that would be a lead time of 2 weeks! And it all makes sense within the larger setup, with an amplified wave tracking into a region of enhanced convergence and being aided by an MJO/CCKW combo. The chances of us breaking the record for earliest 5th tropical storm look quite healthy.
Landfalls I mean :)
Excellent explanation!
Quoting 28. TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's nice to have some semblance of long range consistency this year for once. We had lead times of over a week for Alex, Bonnie, Colin, and Danielle. If the system currently shown on the GFS comes to fruition, that would be a lead time of 2 weeks! And it all makes sense within the larger setup, with an amplified wave tracking into a region of enhanced convergence and being aided by an MJO/CCKW combo. The chances of us breaking the record for earliest 5th tropical storm look quite healthy.
The long range GFS is right in line with climatology and is a reflection of that.

As I often say..climatology rules the roost.

Kinda like how Speaker of the house Paul Ryan turned off the c span cams in the HoR just now as the sit in began.

CC is changing all the patterns.
I understand that but it's worth stirring trouble over, right?
Quoting 20. jeffs713:


Two words! 336 Hours!
The system the GFS is showing has been stuck in its 7-8 day range for the past couple of days.
34. IDTH
Quoting 28. TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's nice to have some semblance of long range consistency this year for once. We had lead times of over a week for Alex, Bonnie, Colin, and Danielle. If the system currently shown on the GFS comes to fruition, that would be a lead time of 2 weeks! And it all makes sense within the larger setup, with an amplified wave tracking into a region of enhanced convergence and being aided by an MJO/CCKW combo. The chances of us breaking the record for earliest 5th tropical storm look quite healthy.

How fitting that the 5th earliest name would be Earl. Couldn't resist.

In all seriousness though, the GFS has been absolutely consistent in the long range and in fact has been blowing all the models away this year in the long range but has been failing consistently in the short range so far. This is definitely possible because the factors are going to come together at some point in July, how strong and where it tracks is very much completely up in the air.
Quoting 34. IDTH:


How fitting that the 5th earliest name would be Earl. Couldn't resist.

In all seriousness though, the GFS has been absolutely consistent in the long range and in fact has been blowing all the models away this year in the long range but has been failing consistently in the short range so far. This is definitely possible because the factors are going to come together at some point in July, how strong and where it tracks is very much completely up in the air.
That upgrade sure did the kick.
Quoting 33. Drakoen:

The system the GFS is showing has been stuck in its 7-8 day range for the past couple of days.
Ghost storm.
Quoting 28. TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's nice to have some semblance of long range consistency this year for once. We had lead times of over a week for Alex, Bonnie, Colin, and Danielle. If the system currently shown on the GFS comes to fruition, that would be a lead time of 2 weeks! And it all makes sense within the larger setup, with an amplified wave tracking into a region of enhanced convergence and being aided by an MJO/CCKW combo. The chances of us breaking the record for earliest 5th tropical storm look quite healthy.

I agree. The NOAA mentions that there indeed is "moderate confidence for tropical cyclone formation near the Bay of Campeche or the far western Caribbean as the Kelvin Wave continues moving eastward."

Link


we just have to wait this out and see what develops,this time of year its not good to let our guard down...IF nothing forms, so much the better,at least we were aware and watching the gulf.
Quoting 33. Drakoen:

The system the GFS is showing has been stuck in its 7-8 day range for the past couple of days.


And the ECMWF shows no sign of a seed in the SW Caribbean next week other than the normally heat-driven low off Panama (hot land (South America), cool-er ocean).

Alas, no 500 mb vort available for the Euro.

GFS still gamely persists with a weak and broad mid-level circ off the east coasts of Nicaragua/Costa Rica.



373. Patrap: July 7,2015 Jeff Masters entry

The MDR produces the wave train, and I only worry in August and Sept when they reach this area.
Thats where the meatball meats da sauce.


Ones locale matters greatly.

Question for those of you with (quite a bit) more knowledge . . . the GFS appears to be tracking the Kelvin wave propagating eastwards, falsely interpreting it in the MJO forecast. The ECMWF and others are not tracking the Kelvin wave (at least in the MJO forecast]. Could this explain why - although they are disagreeing with the GFS propagating the MJO - the CPC is placing emphasis on a potential system stirring up in the GOM? And the ECMWF stirring up something in the EPAC is being considered, but not emphasized (as it is not picking up on the CCKW]? Does this get fed into the models in regards to tropical storm genesis?
Quoting 44. daddyjames:

Question for those of you with (quite a bit) more knowledge . . . the GFS appears to be tracking the Kelvin wave propagating eastwards, falsely interpreting it in the MJO forecast. The ECMWF and others are not tracking the Kelvin wave (at least in the MJO forecast]. Could this explain why - although they are disagreeing with the GFS propagating the MJO - the CPC is placing emphasis on a potential system stirring up in the GOM? And the ECMWF stirring up something in the EPAC is being considered, but not emphasized (as it is not picking up on the CCKW]? Does this get fed into the models in regards to tropical storm genesis?


Yes.
Quoting 45. Grothar:



Yes.


Gotta love the succinctness of your reply :)
Follow-up question . . . . since the ECMWF is not tracking the Kelvin wave in the MJO forecast, is it "ignoring" or missing the CCKW in the data being used to forecast tropical storm initiation?
Seeing that most of the energy has been in the Atlantic this year I wouldn't be surprised if the Caribbean steals the energy just like how the pacific did last year .
Big difference if you ask me

GFS:


ECMWF:

51. IDTH
Quoting 35. Climate175:



You know if I remember correctly, the GFS when it would show ghost storms way out in time would have little to almost no ensemble support in the past. This year the ensembles have reversed that trend and now the operational "doom" long range runs, seem to have more support and don't quite support the notion of "ghost" storms, especially when you have reason to believe that a kelvin wave will traverse to the Atlantic and the MJO could also support upward motion, there is plenty of reason to believe that this is not just possible but is also indicating a trend.

The past 3 or so years (maybe even more), when have we ever had this many kelvin waves come through the Atlantic throughout the season, let alone June? If trends continue, it to me supports the notion that the Atlantic is the one not just open for business but it is the one that is running the business this year.
Thanks for the update; while a Derecho is a unique and interesting event in terms of meteorology, I sincerely hope that one does not form this evening and particularly in the overnight hours where it may be accompanied by tornadic cells. At least, most people will hopefully be at home during these hours and tuned to their local weather and NOAA weather radios for alerts. Goes without saying that those in the potential warning areas should take precautions this afternoon to secure loose items outside that could become projectiles in strong straight-line gusts regardless as well as secure parking for vehicles and boats if possible and do not leave household pets outside overnight as well.

Most importantly, if you live near power lines that could go down in strong gusts, do not go outside to check on potential damage in the dark and wait until daylight before venturing outside if you lose power to avoid stepping on downed lines that may still be live or sitting underwater or puddle in or near your homes.
Quoting 43. Grothar:


Happy Independence Day TEXAZ!
Quoting 51. IDTH:


You know if I remember correctly, the GFS when it would show ghost storms way out in time would have little to almost no ensemble support in the past. This year the ensembles have reversed that trend and now the operational "doom" long range runs, seem to have more support and don't quite support the notion of "ghost" storms, especially when you have reason to believe that a kelvin wave will traverse to the Atlantic and the MJO could also support upward motion, there is plenty of reason to believe that this is not just possible but is also indicating a trend.

The past 3 or so years (maybe even more), when have we ever had this many kelvin waves come through the Atlantic throughout the season, let alone June? If trends continue, it to me supports the notion that the Atlantic is the one not just open for business but it is the one that is running the business this year.
And due to this performance of the GFS ensembles, I have been starting to examine both the ensembles more intensively this year, to see if it can hint up any more systems in the future.
Thanks for the update Mr. Henson,
Quoting 53. JNFlori30A:

Happy Independence Day TEXAZ!
That would really put a big hamper on the 4th of July celebrations.
Quoting 5. washingtonian115:

GFS never fails to impress when it comes to doom

I tell you this much that the GFS has been consist on a landfall somewhere between Nola and Houston. This is gonna be interesting next week!



Station 42057 - Western Caribbean - 195 NM WSW of Negril Jamaica

Location: 18.1409N 85.2663W
Date: Wed, 22 Jun 2016 17:50:00 UTC
Winds: ENE (70°) at 15.5 kt gusting to 19.4 kt
Significant Wave Height: 5.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Average Wave Period: 5.3 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.97 in and steady
Air Temperature: 82.8 F
Dew Point: 75.7 F
Water Temperature: 84.6 F
Thanks for the update, Bob. Let's hope things don't get too bad for any of the major metropolitan areas.
It's a bit odd Accuweather just put their Winter Outlook in June.


Water temperature is now warm enough to support tropical development 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles...Looks a lot like 2007 out there.
62. Ed22
Quoting 58. hydrus:




Station 42057 - Western Caribbean - 195 NM WSW of Negril Jamaica

Location: 18.1409N 85.2663W
Date: Wed, 22 Jun 2016 17:50:00 UTC
Winds: ENE (70°) at 15.5 kt gusting to 19.4 kt
Significant Wave Height: 5.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Average Wave Period: 5.3 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.97 in and steady
Air Temperature: 82.8 F
Dew Point: 75.7 F
Water Temperature: 84.6 F
Weather enthusiast, could this actively strong tropical wave develop? Its looks pretty impressive to me...
63. Ed22
Quoting 61. hydrus:



Water temperature is now warm enough to support tropical development 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles...Looks a lot like 2007 out there.
lot of things going to happen this inregards to tropics ( Atlantic)...
If the GFS keeps developing something every run at some point it's will be correct. :-)

Quoting 62. Ed22:

Weather enthusiast, could this actively strong tropical wave develop? Its looks pretty impressive to me...
Maybe when it reaches the gulf. If it stalls over the Y.P, it will fizzle out...jmo
my thoughts on future possible next storm

Quoting 42. Patrap:

373. Patrap: July 7,2015 Jeff Masters entry

The MDR produces the wave train, and I only worry in August and Sept when they reach this area.
Thats where the meatball meats da sauce.


Ones locale matters greatly.


Well Pat Cindy 2.0. Cindy's little brother Earl mite be taking a trip to Bourbon if it stands.
Only a few wind reports in the last 3 hours; looks like the evening timing for the worst weather starts this evening into tomorrow along with the dynamics of the Conus jet pushing East as noted in the Blog entry:

last3hours Filtered Reports Graphic

Wind speeds are increasing to near gale force...

Yucatan Basin - 120 NM ESE of Cozumel, MX

Location: 19.918N 84.938W
Date: Wed, 22 Jun 2016 19:20:00 UTC
Winds: SE (130°) at 23.3 kt gusting to 31.1 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.02 in
Air Temperature: 77.9 F
Dew Point: 75.7 F
Water Temperature: 84.4 F
If this develops along with the July 3rd system, we could potentially have 2 named storms in the next 2 1/2 weeks!
All depends on the MJO

Quoting 69. hydrus:

Wind speeds are increasing to near gale force...

Yucatan Basin - 120 NM ESE of Cozumel, MX

Location: 19.918N 84.938W
Date: Wed, 22 Jun 2016 19:20:00 UTC
Winds: SE (130°) at 23.3 kt gusting to 31.1 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.02 in
Air Temperature: 77.9 F
Dew Point: 75.7 F
Water Temperature: 84.4 F
Quoting 37. Gearsts:

Ghost storm.

Hey naming ghost storms is my job!
Quoting 67. bigwes6844:

Well Pat Cindy 2.0. Cindy's little brother Earl mite be taking a trip to Bourbon if it stands.



I never take any one frame or run for gospel. Until we get a actual invest..and the big 4 show some consensus on end line solutions,then the pucker factor increases exponentially.
Quoting 61. hydrus:



Water temperature is now warm enough to support tropical development 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles...Looks a lot like 2007 out there.

I think our final numbers may be a lot like 2007 - above average in named storms but near average in hurricanes/majors. 2007 was near normal instead of above normal due to a slightly cooler MDR than other seasons of the active era.
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Link
Quoting 73. Patrap:




I never take any one frame or run for gospel. Until we get a actual invest..and the big 4 show some consensus on end line solutions,then the pucker factor increases exponentially.
definitely so true Pat. anyway it goes we are gonna see some nasty weather that weekend regardless of what happens.
19MM Citizens under the gun (so to speak) with Moderate risk for severe weather (second highest designation) and only weather related news on nat'l websites: Representatives look like they are practicing tornado drills on House floor and some fierce hot air from both presumptive candidates.

'Merica 2016
Here was some of the better models for short lived Tropical Storm Danielle. Overall GFS won handily. HWRF gets a solid second. CMC did okay at 24hrs then faltered. NAVGEM stumbled early on but was only off for landfall by 11.3nm...winning closest at landfall. EMCWF was in the back of the better models. Looks like offical was looking at an interpolated NAM (I was) or SHIPS & was even a little farther off.

Model error in nautical miles
Model Name 0hr 24hr 48hr
AEMN
GFS Ensemble Mean
22.2 17.7 44.3
AVNO
NWS / Global Forecast System (GFS model)
25.4 21.9 12.0
CMC
Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model from the Canadian Meteorological Centre (Canadian model)
35.0 25.6 141.2
CMC2
Canadian model (Interpolated 12 hours)
0 42.1 98.2
CMCI
Canadian model (Interpolated 06 hours)
ECME
ECMWF global model Ensemble Control Member [GTS tracker]
41.2 47.7 -
ECMO
ECMWF global model [GTS tracker]
76.3 66.1 -
HWFI
Previous cycle HWRF, adjusted (Interpolated 06 hours)
0.6 42.2 41.5
HWRF
Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model
7.6 33.8 44.3
NAM
North American Mesoscale model
31.1 50.9 85.8
NAM2
NWS / NAM model (Interpolated 12 hours)
0 58.6 88.7
Model Name 0hr 24hr 48hr
NAMI
NWS / NAM model (Interpolated 06 hours)
NGX
NAVGEM [GFS tracker] - 2013 and later (previously version of NOGAPS)
45.7 58.7 11.3
OFCL
National Hurricane Center (NHC) official forecast (in ATCF system and not from advisory data)
0.9 55.6 -
SHIP
Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) model
2.8 55.1 84.9
TVCN
Consensus Track Guidance (Consensus of at least two of: AVNI / EGRI / GHMI / HWFI / EMXI / CTCI) - 2016 Version
0.5 59.0 70.5
@MichaelRLowry 8h
First 3 weeks of June in the Atlantic/Caribbean recorded the lowest shear since 2011. Shades of #LaNina? #climo

The wave near the Yucatan is what the GFS had as Danielle part two occuring.Back when the GFS showed Danielle it showed a follow up storm a few days later.
Quoting 48. daddyjames:

Follow-up question . . . . since the ECMWF is not tracking the Kelvin wave in the MJO forecast, is it "ignoring" or missing the CCKW in the data being used to forecast tropical storm initiation?

It seems as if this is an active discussion at the NHC in regards how to appropriately incorporate it into forecasting tropical storm genesis.

Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Waves on tropical cyclone cyclogenesis over the eastern north Pacific and Atlantic Ocean basins
Sixth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy: Extratropical Interactions with the MJO; American Meterological Society, Phoenix, AZ, January 04 - 08, 2015

Eric S. Blake, NOAA/NCEP/NHC, Miami, FL; and M. Ventrice

During the past few years, the real-time monitoring of convectively coupled atmospheric Kelvin Waves (CCKWs) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has become an important new tool for operational forecasters making tropical cyclone genesis forecasts. However, many questions remain open regarding the use of these atmospheric waves as a means for genesis prediction. While it is useful information to know the state of the MJO, or if a CCKW is nearing a system, quantifying the impact of these waves has been challenging. For example, a key question is whether the CCKWs in certain phases of the MJO are more effective at initiating tropical cyclones. A more quantifiable impact would be useful to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), which now makes probability forecasts of genesis for the next 5 days. The use of these atmospheric waves in a daily operational setting at NHC will be discussed and key case studies of recent storms that may have been influenced by these waves will be presented. In addition, CCKWs will be compared in various states of the MJO to help derive a more probability-based impact of these CCKWs based on the MJO phase and/or strength.
Recorded presentation
Wonder why the models aren't doing anything with the strong wave in the western Caribbean?Shear is moderate, water very hot, satellite appearance good, and movement to the northwest will take it clear of the Central American mainland and on to the Yucatan. I assume lack of model support is the reason it hasn't been designated an AOI.
4 dead in record rainfall in quake-battered Kumamoto

A low-pressure front that brought record rainfall to the quake-shaken Kumamoto region in western Japan was heading toward Tokyo and the Kanto region on June 21.

Close to 500 millimeters of rain fell on some parts of Miyazaki and Kumamoto prefectures between June 20 and 21.


Link
Quoting 83. Houdude:

Wonder why the models aren't doing anything with the strong wave in the western Caribbean?Shear is moderate, water very hot, satellite appearance good, and movement to the northwest will take it clear of the Central American mainland and on to the Yucatan. I assume lack of model support is the reason it hasn't been designated an AOI.

A majority of the wave's vorticity is over Central America and should remain there. It would certainly be a development contender if it were farther north.
Quoting 80. TropicalAnalystwx13:

@MichaelRLowry 8h
First 3 weeks of June in the Atlantic/Caribbean recorded the lowest shear since 2011. Shades of #LaNina? #climo



nice


It looks more organized.
I strongly suspect the GFS storm is a ghost. As Drak said, it's one that has been stuck right around the 8-10 days out range for quite awhile now. Other storms it has shown this year, even though they've been weak, have all had their time frames moved up appropriately, not to mention support from other models. Nothing but above normal pressures in the Caribbean on the Euro at day 10. So one of those models will be very wrong- take your pick.
It might be acknowledged either in the next GFS forecast or by the NOAA

Quoting 87. Terri2003:



It looks more organized.
From the NHC TWD...

A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean with axis
extending from 19N83W to 09N83W, moving west 15 to 20 kt over the
past 24 hours. This wave is been supported by an upper-level low
centered over the Bay of Campeche. With this, scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms are observed along and in the
vicinity of the wave S of 20N 79W-85W affecting portions of
Nicaragua and Honduras.

Link
Quoting 66. wunderkidcayman:

my thoughts on future possible next storm


Quoting 76. Patrap:




Sorry Patrap, but I like wunderkidcayman's map better because it will look great hanging on my refrigerator!
94. bwi
Conditions in Maryland very different than on infamous derecho day in 2012. Today a pleasant 80 degrees with some high clouds. Doesn't seem at all like the crazy heat energy we had back then.
Quoting 88. MAweatherboy1:

I strongly suspect the GFS storm is a ghost. As Drak said, it's one that has been stuck right around the 8-10 days out range for quite awhile now. Other storms it has shown this year, even though they've been weak, have all had their time frames moved up appropriately, not to mention support from other models. Nothing but above normal pressures in the Caribbean on the Euro at day 10. So one of those models will be very wrong- take your pick.


I'm gonna have to disagree with you somewhat the system has been moving down the timeline on GFS it's just moving slowly that's all
There is a chance it is a ghost but also a chance it real overall condition are expected to be right for it

Let just all chill and wait to see what happens next week
Quoting 93. JNFlori30A:



Sorry Patrap, but I like wunderkidcayman's map better because it will look great hanging on my refrigerator!


My five-year old drew exactly the same thing!
Quoting 93. JNFlori30A:



Sorry Patrap, but I like wunderkidcayman's map better because it will look great hanging on my refrigerator!


Lol well wasn't what I expected or intended but ok
Quoting 95. wunderkidcayman:



I'm gonna have to disagree with you somewhat the system has been moving down the timeline on GFS it's just moving slowly that's all
There is a chance it is a ghost but also a chance it real overall condition are expected to be right for it

Let just all chill and wait to see what happens next week
GFS for the last 3 days has the system at 210 hours.
Quoting 97. GeoffreyWPB:



My five-year old drew exactly the same thing!


Flagged for implying my level is as much as your 5 year old I guess
Quoting 95. wunderkidcayman:



I'm gonna have to disagree with you somewhat the system has been moving down the timeline on GFS it's just moving slowly that's all
There is a chance it is a ghost but also a chance it real overall condition are expected to be right for it

Let just all chill and wait to see what happens next week

I agree with this. There has been some wavering as you expect in the long range, but in general earlier runs showed development beginning in the 276-300 window, while more recent runs show we're down to 198-228. Slow but steady.
Quoting 99. Gearsts:

GFS for the last 3 days has the system at 210 hours.



Unn no it not

More like for past two runs or so but that about it

GFS had this system just starting out that area at 300hrs few days ago
THE GREAT POLAR BEAR FEAST premieres Wednesday, June 22, 2016, 8:00-9:00 p.m. ET on PBS.

The conservation-focused special THE GREAT POLAR BEAR FEAST examines the impact of environmental changes on polar bears and their cubs.

U-Tube Trailer

Told you it would look good!
Quoting 102. wunderkidcayman:



Unn no it not

More like for past two runs or so but that about it

GFS had this system just starting out that area at 300hrs few days ago
Last two?

18z Jun 19
Quoting 101. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I agree with this. There has been some wavering as you expect in the long range, but in general earlier runs showed development beginning in the 276-300 window, while more recent runs show we're down to 198-228. Slow but steady.
Who hacked your account? Where is the real TWA13.
Quoting 106. washingtonian115:

Who hacked your account? Where is the real TWA13.

Ha. Enjoy it. It's probably the only time we'll agree this season.
Quoting 101. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I agree with this. There has been some wavering as you expect in the long range, but in general earlier runs showed development beginning in the 276-300 window, while more recent runs show we're down to 198-228. Slow but steady.


It only seems delayed in that it first was forecast to lift out to the north before getting to the Yucatan. It now has it passing over the Yucatan before significantly organizing. It still is there in the time frame, just the influence of the weakness in the ridge above it has been delayed.

ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 222021
IAZ000-ILZ000-INZ000-MIZ000-OHZ000-WIZ000-230200-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0321 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the lower Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley region this afternoon and tonight...

* LOCATIONS...
Northern and central Indiana
Northern Illinois
Western and central Ohio
Southwestern Lower Michigan
Southern Wisconsin
Northeastern Iowa

* HAZARDS...
Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force
A few intense tornadoes
Scattered large hail, some baseball size

* SUMMARY...
Widespread damaging wind gusts with some greater than 70 miles
per hour along with tornadoes and isolated large hail are
expected late this afternoon and evening from northeast Iowa
into extreme southern Wisconsin, northern Illinois, southwest
Lower Michigan, northern to central Indiana and parts of western
Ohio. A wind damage threat may also affect the upper Ohio Valley
and central and southern Appalachians.

Preparedness actions...

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch
means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms
over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is
issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

&&

..Cohen.. 06/22/2016

$$
Any signs of derecho activity yet? I figure if one gets going, it should be during the early evening in IA, IL, or IN.
Quoting 108. daddyjames:



It only seems delayed in that it first was forecast to lift out to the north before getting to the Yucatan. It now has it passing over the Yucatan before significantly organizing. It still is there in the time frame, just the influence of the weakness in the ridge above it has been delayed.

Yeah, the GFS has trended weaker with troughing over the East Coast, at least to end June and begin July. It eventually amplifies further, allowing the storm to track out of the BOC and into Louisiana (on the 12z run).

Track and intensity aren't really important at this point though. It could switch back to Florida, it could remain in Texas/Louisiana, it could trend toward Mexico. The most significant factor is that we have a consistent signal for development.
Quoting 111. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah, the GFS has trended weaker with troughing over the East Coast, at least to end June and begin July. It eventually amplifies further, allowing the storm to track out of the BOC and into Louisiana (on the 12z run).

Track and intensity aren't really important at this point though. It could switch back to Florida, it could remain in Texas/Louisiana, it could trend toward Mexico. The most significant factor is that we have a consistent signal for development.


Agreed. Slight variations in development and evolution are expected at the moment - it is a "best guess" at what may happen for now. But it definitely has been there. Will be interesting to see whether or not the ECMWF comes into agreement anytime soon, or continues to insist upon development in the EPAC.
Quoting 101. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I agree with this. There has been some wavering as you expect in the long range, but in general earlier runs showed development beginning in the 276-300 window, while more recent runs show we're down to 198-228. Slow but steady.


Yes indeed
Quoting 108. daddyjames:



It only seems delayed in that it first was forecast to lift out to the north before getting to the Yucatan. It now has it passing over the Yucatan before significantly organizing. It still is there in the time frame, just the influence of the weakness in the ridge above it has been delayed.


I think it will develop and lift North passing through either Yucatan channel or Western tip of Cuba

Just got word that one of my uncles died this morning
Quoting 116. wunderkidcayman:

Just got word that one of my uncles died this morning


Sorry to hear that wkc. My condolences to you and your family.
looks like cells firing off by twin cities may be seeds for severe system
18z GFS running, let's see what it portrays now this run.
Quoting 117. daddyjames:



Sorry to hear that wkc. My condolences to you and your family.


Thank you lots
Quoting 116. wunderkidcayman:

Just got word that one of my uncles died this morning


Thoughts and prayers to you and your family.
Starting to get ramped up, 198 hrs from now.
FOR ALL THE PEOPLE SAYING THE GFS IS BRINGING THE STORM BACK ITS MOVING IT FORWARD NOW SO LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOMETHING
Hello all. It's been awhile since I posted last. I am surprised that the blob off the coast of Honduras hasn't generated more discussion. The last few frames on visible satellite to my eyes are starting to show some mid-level rotation. Anyone else seeing that?
Quoting 116. wunderkidcayman:

Just got word that one of my uncles died this morning
I'm so sorry to hear this. Thoughts and prayers are with you.
Quoting 126. FlaGrandma:
prayers

Quoting 124. James1981cane:

FOR ALL THE PEOPLE SAYING THE GFS IS BRINGING THE STORM BACK ITS MOVING IT FORWARD NOW SO LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOMETHING

WHY ARE YOU YELLING?
In the GFS model, the system seems to be stalling over the yuctan peninsula for a period of 3 days or more.
Ok, so the 18z GFS is now whaving the low begin to cross the Yucatan at 240 hrs after stalling for a bit, and headed for the Gulf.
Quoting 129. TropicalAnalystwx13:


WHY ARE YOU YELLING?



IM NOT JUST MAKING THIS POST SEEM IMPORTANT LOL
Quoting 131. Climate175:

Ok, so the 18z GFS is now whaving the low begin to cross the Yucatan at 240 hrs after stalling for a bit, and headed for the Gulf.


The low st this point is also showing signs of circulation and some convection.
Quoting 131. Climate175:

Ok, so the 18z GFS is now whaving the low begin to cross the Yucatan at 240 hrs after stalling for a bit, and headed for the Gulf.


HERE IT IS AT 240 HOURS
Sorry not 240 hours its at 264
Quoting 103. RobertWC:

THE GREAT POLAR BEAR FEAST premieres Wednesday, June 22, 2016, 8:00-9:00 p.m. ET on PBS.

The conservation-focused special THE GREAT POLAR BEAR FEAST examines the impact of environmental changes on polar bears and their cubs.

U-Tube Trailer
Thats so sad.
As storms gain strength they tend to move in a northward direction, as the low strengthens in the Gulf over the warm waters, it begins moving north towards Louisiana.
OK GUYS WE ARE ON MODEL WATCH LOL GET YOUR DOOMCASTING READY
Quoting 140. Climate175:

As storms storms gain strength they tend to move in a northward direction, as the low strengthens in the Gulf over the warm waters, it begins moving north towards Louisiana.


yes they do
Quoting 110. ClimateChange:

Any signs of derecho activity yet? I figure if one gets going, it should be during the early evening in IA, IL, or IN.


Some thunderstorms firing over Lake Michigan but nothing organized or moving progressively. NWS in Illinois says that those current storms aren't the real deal and what's going to be the severe systems will form in North Central Illinois to South-Central Wisconsin, then slide southeast.
Why stop at the GFS 240hr? What does the CFS 1000hr say? I need enough lead time to put up shutters and gather supplies.
Quoting 144. Drakoen:

Why stop at the GFS 240hr? What does the CFS 1000hr say? I need enough lead time to put up shutters and gather supplies.

sorry to say but its not accurate that far out
Quoting 144. Drakoen:

Why stop at the GFS 240hr? What does the CFS 1000hr say? I need enough lead time to put up shutters and gather supplies.
LOL! Good one Drak.
147. beell
Heck of a cap. 12-14°C


Current RAP 700 mb temps & rh
Update on the 18z model- It shows a similar scenario to the last one, except this time the low stalls over the Yucatan for slightly longer and is slightly weaker in terms of barometric pressure (and larger in terms of radius) than the 12z model.

Cheers fellow weather enthusiasts, see y'all in the AM
Big show for the Midwest expected to fire at 2300, stay safe all up there my dad on the Michigan Indiana line just had a nasty cell go through ahead of the game.
150. beell
Flow through the base of the shortwave (red arrow) has really flattened out today. S/W axis represented by black dashed line.



SEL6

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 286
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
610 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN IOWA
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS
NORTHWESTERN INDIANA
LAKE MICHIGAN

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 610 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER
POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...GRADUALLY DEEPENING CONVECTION NOW ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS THREATENING
EVERY FORM OF SEVERE WEATHER...THEN AFTER A FEW HOURS...INTO A
COMPLEX OF STORMS WITH MOSTLY A DAMAGING-WIND RISK. AN
ORGANIZED...DERECHO-PRODUCING SYSTEM ULTIMATELY MAY DEVELOP FROM
THIS ACTIVITY TONIGHT.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST OF CEDAR RAPIDS
IOWA TO 30 MILES SOUTH OF VALPARAISO INDIANA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29035.


...EDWARDS
152. beell


Looking more and more likely something will pop up in the gulf
"Torrential rainfall causes dyke breach along Youshui River, C China"

...sparse on facts but several telling pictures:

Link
Banding features! Looks very interesting.


157. beell

Current guess at the surface boundaries and low. Not quite sure what happens to the convection N of the warm front. Things may start to ramp up over central IL on the warm side. ADDED: and I did mean N central IL adjacent to the boundary.
Quoting 156. WeatherfanPR:

Banding features! Looks very interesting.





It clearly has no sign of a LLc and horrible banding don't expect anything from this i know some people are on here alll day waiting refreshing there page to doom cast OK the only legitimate chance at something developing is next week
Quoting 156. WeatherfanPR:

Banding features! Looks very interesting.





From the NHC TWD...

Tropical wave extends from 10N85W to 19N85W moving W at 15-20 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 80W-90W and
remains beneath the influence of an upper level anticyclone
anchored over the NW Caribbean Sea near 17N82W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 11N-23N between 79W-91W...including portions
of Central America...the Yucatan peninsula...and western Cuba.

Link
Ok, I don't know why the NHC is completely ignoring our tropical wave in the W Carib (there is no mention in the tropical weather outlook). What, are they going with the weak model support? I don't get it, sometimes the models are wrong...
Quoting 160. NCHurricane2009:

Ok, I don't know why the NHC is completely ignoring our tropical wave in the W Carib (there is no mention in the tropical weather outlook). What, are they going with the weak model support? I don't get it, sometimes the models are wrong...

96W, the new kid on the block, looks better with each new frame :
The warm pool off the East coast has disappear for the first time since 2013.

VS
Quoting 163. Gearsts:

The warm pool off the East coast has disappear for the first time since 2011.

VS

What does that mean for what could happen around there?
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
715 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN LEE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 745 PM CDT

* AT 715 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR AMBOY...OR 11 MILES EAST OF WALTON...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN LEE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS: WEST BROOKLYN AND COMPTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SAME AREA.
Very sad to tell you all that the boy I mentioned who wrecked during Tropical Storm Colin has in fact been finally pulled off of life support today....He did not have a seat belt on and his car rolled and landed on him after he hydroplaned..

Not sure if it'll ever be noticed but technically an indirect death should be added to Colin's death count.

May not have been the prettiest storm, but the first person in this county to die in a storm in a long while I believe....

168. beell
Huh..

170. IDTH
Quoting 168. beell:







Shear dropping but still no model support. As I say every year, let's just watch and see.
Tornado "on the ground" in IL.
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
729 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL LA SALLE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
SOUTHWESTERN DE KALB COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
SOUTHEASTERN LEE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT

* AT 729 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF PAW
PAW...OR 10 MILES NORTH OF MENDOTA...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
PAW PAW AROUND 750 PM CDT.
EARLVILLE AROUND 800 PM CDT.
SHABBONA AROUND 805 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
COMPTON AND WEST BROOKLYN.

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...
I-39 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 78 AND 86.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A
BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE HOME...OR
IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
Wish we got something besides BOC storms... the next storm in ~1 and 1/2 weeks is also forecasted to be one

Quoting 170. IDTH:






Shear dropping but still no model support. As I say every year, let's just watch and see.
174. beell
Quoting 170. IDTH:


Shear dropping but still no model support. As I say every year, let's just watch and see.


I love watching! My favorite part is that cyclonic progression of convection in the center-top of the frame that zippers around top of the obvious mid-level spin.

Still pretty far out, but we could see Hurricane Earl impacting the gulf coast after the 4th of July.
Quoting 175. NCHurricaneTracker69:


Still pretty far out, but we could see Hurricane Earl impacting the gulf coast after the 4th of July.


And if the storm potentially brewing near the Yucatan develops, we could have an F named storm on July 4th
177. beell
Quoting 173. tigerdeF:

Wish we got something besides BOC storms... the next storm in ~1 and 1/2 weeks is also forecasted to be one




Wish we had less wishing for storms.
:)
Impressive wave none the less.Even if it doesn't develop it just shows that the caribbean is primed this year and back open for business after being shut down in 2014 and 2015.
The 18z GFS run this evening which shows a storm in the GOM over 10 days out is a ghost storm. The 18z GFS run showing a storm in the GOM since this past Saturday was also 10 days out which verifies the ghost storm. I still don't understand why the intensity fluctuates so much from run to run, when it is a ghost storm.
Quoting 176. tigerdeF:



And if the storm potentially brewing near the Yucatan develops, we could have an F named storm on July 4th



There's a discrepancy here, folks. Brooks Garner, here in Houston, says the MJO is headed our way and that OUR area seems more at risk for the E storm landfall than NOLA as depicted in the 18Z GFS run. Does he not agree with the GFS? Why does he feel we're gonna get the Big One?
Quoting 180. pureet1948:




There's a discrepancy here, folks. Brooks Garner, here in Houston, says the MJO is headed our way and that OUR area seems more at risk for the E storm landfall than NOLA as depicted in the 18Z GFS run. Does he not agree with the GFS? Why does he feel we're gonna get the Big One?

He shouldn't be saying anything about landfall locations for a storm that 1)hasn't developed 2) is being shown on a model more than 7 days out
It is irresponsible
Quoting 177. beell:



Wish we had less wishing for storms.
:)


True.. sometimes I get so caught up in looking at weather patterns and extreme weather that I forget that these are dangerous and life threatening systems.
I just found this just conveniently funny and interesting. Here is the Farmer's Almanac's forecast for the Gulf Coast.
JULY 2016
1st-3rd. Fair across Southern Plains, points west, however a tropical storm threat looms along the Gulf Coast.
Quoting 165. Climate175:

What does that mean for what could happen around there?
This year should have way more MDR development.
Quoting 107. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Ha. Enjoy it. It's probably the only time we'll agree this season.
I dunno... given the potential for la nina formation, you two may be calling for tracks from , to, and through the western Caribbean with alarming regularity this season....
Quoting 165. Climate175:

What does that mean for what could happen around there?


It's been relatively cool in NC for a while due to a lot of wind coming from NE. That could have brought in cooler water north of Cape Hatteras. Tropical systems form farther south but it looks like the now cooler water could affect a storm coming up the coast. Thank goodness I didn't go to Avon this year - water temp would be even lower than normal (not very warm at all).
Quoting 181. gator23:


He shouldn't be saying anything about landfall locations for a storm that 1)hasn't developed 2) is being shown on a model more than 7 days out
It is irresponsible



Maybe I'm misunderstanding him. On the other hand, he does mention an MJO headed "our way," meaning, obviously, toward SE Texas. What is he talking about?
Western Caribbean - 195 NM WSW of Negril Jamaica



Location: 18.1603N 85.3311W
Date: Wed, 22 Jun 2016 23:50:00 UTC
Winds: E (90°) at 23.3 kt gusting to 27.2 kt
Significant Wave Height: 7.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Average Wave Period: 5.3 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.95 in and steady
Air Temperature: 80.4 F
Dew Point: 75.0 F
Water Temperature: 84.4 F
Quoting 183. Climate175:

I just found this just conveniently funny and interesting. Here is the Farmer's Almanac's forecast for the Gulf Coast.
JULY 2016
1st-3rd. Fair across Southern Plains, points west, however a tropical storm threat looms along the Gulf Coast.


What state is most at risk?
Quoting 189. pureet1948:



What state is most at risk?

All of them and none of them. We don't know if there will be a storm to start July, where it will be, or how strong it will be. We just know there's an elevated chance of development in the region in a little over a week.
Quoting 187. pureet1948:




Maybe I'm misunderstanding him. On the other hand, he does mention an MJO headed "our way," meaning, obviously, toward SE Texas. What is he talking about?

He must have meant the MJO was heading toward the Atlantic. Here is what the MJO is
Link
Quoting 189. pureet1948:



What state is most at risk?
It does not say, but it does show many frequent threats in August, not that it means anything, but just fun to look at.
A little late but here we go.

Quoting 190. TropicalAnalystwx13:


All of them and none of them. We don't know if there will be a storm to start July, where it will be, or how strong it will be. We just know there's an elevated chance of development in the region in a little over a week.


Of course we don't know. But, I've noticed that the GFS is consistent in bringing this feature toward New Orleans, with only occasional runs at the middle TX coast. If I were a forecaster, I'd advise residents of NOLA and surrounding areas to monitor all WX news, starting now.
Quoting 149. ProgressivePulse:

Big show for the Midwest expected to fire at 2300, stay safe all up there my dad on the Michigan Indiana line just had a nasty cell go through ahead of the game.
In other words , pretty typical end of June scenario....
Quoting 156. WeatherfanPR:

Banding features! Looks very interesting.



Must be an optical illusion...I still think that we should wait and see and trust the models. All of them can't be wrong.
Being professionally engaged in horticulture, the weather is of the utmost importance. When I see on this site pictures of tennis ball sized hail (or bigger) it is a clear reminder of the importance in knowing where and when. Crops, arboreta, display gardens can all be devastated by a hail event. Weather Underground has provided excellent information, consistently, and with a high degree of accuracy for a good number of years. With this site (for hail) we can see the cloud heights, their direction of travel, speed, size of hail stones and the probability of hail occurring. The additional information on other aspects of weather, is of a great value as well. Thank you very much!
Quoting 149. ProgressivePulse:

Big show for the Midwest expected to fire at 2300, stay safe all up there my dad on the Michigan Indiana line just had a nasty cell go through ahead of the game.


Looking at the warm front in southeast Indiana, storms are developing, with the cold front in northern Illinois pushing south east, things are going to get ugly, I'm going to bed right now, I'll be up before the fireworks begin, an will be out in it to protect my citizens, all political stuff aside, we could use a prayer or two this evening!
Quoting 170. IDTH:






Shear dropping but still no model support. As I say every year, let's just watch and see.

Do storms form with out model support? Just saying!
Quoting 195. BahaHurican:

In other words , pretty typical end of June scenario....



Derecho's are never a typical scenario, very possible tonight.
Quoting 197. thePharaoh:

Being professionally engaged in horticulture, the weather is of the utmost importance. When I see on this site pictures of tennis ball sized hail (or bigger) it is a clear reminder of the importance in knowing where and when. Crops, arboreta, display gardens can all be devastated by a hail event. Weather Underground has provided excellent information, consistently, and with a high degree of accuracy for a good number of years. With this site (for hail) we can see the cloud heights, their direction of travel, speed, size of hail stones and the probability of hail occurring. The additional information on other aspects of weather, is of a great value as well. Thank you very much!

Wow.... great testimonial .... we have numerous gardening enthusiasts and professionals who blog among us ... some of them have great blogs as well, that you may be interested in checking out.

I sure hope you're not under a hail threat tonight, but if so, all the best, and stay safe.

And welcome!
Quoting 199. gulfbreeze:


Do storms form with out model support? Just saying!
Barry in 2013 did.
Soldier Field, Chicago, Illinois.

Center of the screen : "dangerous weather is approaching seek shelter immediately". A bit panicking...
"Fox says we're going to start at 10.15pm. But every time there's a lightning strike within five miles, they effectively restart the 30-minute clock: that's the safety protocol." Source : Guardian.
Quoting 196. Loduck:

Must be an optical illusion...I still think that we should wait and see and trust the models. All of them can't be wrong.



It would have potential if he low level circulation were not on land, and if there was not an upper level low immediately to its west (helping to provide shear on the western side). The 850mb vorticity is forecast to move due west into Central America (not lift north over the water).

Edit: fingers still don't know east from west . . .
Quoting 200. ProgressivePulse:



Derecho's are never a typical scenario, very possible tonight.
Nah.... I meant the way the potential 4th of July storm was shaping up on the long-range ... linger over the Yucatan, head north, bit and disorganized ....
Quoting 204. daddyjames:



It would have potential if he low level circulation were not on land, and if there was not an upper level low immediately to its west (helping to provide shear on the eastern side). The 850mb vorticity is forecast to move due west into Central America (not lift north over the water).
I keep thinking this Twave is our first genuine contender to bring Agatha to life in the EPac ....

I know, no model support ....
All I know we are having a big 40th Anniversary Party on Pensacola Beach July 10th please keep all storms away from us until after the 10th!!!!
Quoting 205. BahaHurican:

Nah.... I meant the way the potential 4th of July storm was shaping up on the long-range ... linger over the Yucatan, head north, bit and disorganized ....


Sorry about that, I am focused elsewhere this evening.

First wave through our area last night, seems a bit early for the northward progression and clearing the area. Shear and instability are running at or below / above normal basin wide which is something we have not witnessed for some time, that is a bit troubling to me. We shall see though. Everyone is used to discounting storms because of the persistent adverse conditions year after year. Things appear to be much different this year.
m
Quoting 206. BahaHurican:

I keep thinking this Twave is our first genuine contender to bring Agatha to life in the EPac ....

I know, no model support ....


ECMWF keeps wanting to spin something up in the EPAC long range, but not sure if this would be directly involved.
Do derechos dance?
Depression dangerously
descending downward.
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How low can you go?

Quoting 173. tigerdeF:

Wish we got something besides BOC storms... the next storm in ~1 and 1/2 weeks is also forecasted to be one



we've only had one this year and one all of last year so I dont know what youre talking about
Quoting 207. gulfbreeze:

All I know we are having a big 40th Anniversary Party on Pensacola Beach July 10th please keep all storms away from us until after the 10th!!!!
Aha! Bahamian Independence Day! Ditto on the storm keepaway!!!
Quoting 208. ProgressivePulse:



Sorry about that, I am focused elsewhere this evening.

First wave through our area last night, seems a bit early for the northward progression and clearing the area. Shear and instability are running at or below / above normal basin wide which is something we have not witnessed for some time, that is a bit troubling to me. We shall see though. Everyone is used to discounting storms because of the persistent adverse conditions year after year. Things appear to be much different this year.
Believe me when I say you aren't the only one feeling a wee bit .... concerned ... again, not so much because these storms have been devastating, but more because they indicate conditions are a lot more conducive than we've seen in a few years ...

The big question is whether the conditions will continue to be conducive after the end of July. With MDR development expected to be held to a minimum, long-trackers that head out to sea may lose to the stealth waves bombing out in the WCar and over the Bahamas ....

And, the latest water vapor imagery on Iweathernet.com looks like dry air just gobbled up a lot of the convection over the twave in the Yucatan. (I tried to link it but it wouldn't work)

Little confused here. The tropical wave in the NW Caribbean looks healthier than either of the systems that spawned Colin and Danielle.

Anything going on there?
Quoting 220. Hurricanes101:

Little confused here. The tropical wave in the NW Caribbean looks healthier than either of the systems that spawned Colin and Danielle.

Anything going on there?


no
Quoting 221. daddyjames:



no


looks to be in the upper to mid levels. Oh well, goodnight
Quoting 206. BahaHurican:

I keep thinking this Twave is our first genuine contender to bring Agatha to life in the EPac ....

I know, no model support ....

Cowboy would say what models?
As a football (soccer) fan, I'm patiently waiting to see if the match will resume... It might be entertaining to watch them splash around in the puddles. Of course, I don't want anyone getting hurt so maybe tomorrow would be better...

latest from the Guardian:

We’re still in position for a 10.45pm ET restart, but if we get lightning within five miles, the 30-minute clock resets. Plus the field is covered in puddles. Even if we get back on, will it be playable? 4 min

followed by:


Mark Childs has emailed: “Guys in suits walked about 20 yards into field, turned around: expect ‘field is unplayable’ announcement in a few minutes.”

We shall see. 1 min


Lol... apparently one has a "squeegee team" to dispatch to remove water from the field. Any guesses on how many squeegee's one would need to clear a FIFA soccer field?

Link to Guardian live blog again.

In other news, I'd really like the match to start so Fox Sports 1 will turn off the repeat of yesterday's semi between Argentina and the US...
more wet stuff in west carribbean

CARIBBEAN SEA...
The primary focus for the basin this evening is a tropical wave
extending along 85W in the NW Caribbean and across Honduras and
Nicaragua. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring W of 79W and
is expected to bring periods of heavy rainfall across Central
America and the Yucatan peninsula through Friday as the tropical
wave moves W-NW. The remainder of the basin is under the influence
of relatively dry northerly flow aloft E of 77W. At the surface...
fresh to strong trades continue with only isolated showers and
tstms noted in the vicinity of the Mona Passage and portions of
Hispaniola this evening. Little change is expected for the eastern
Caribbean the next few days. NHC Pacific Discussion
Quoting 220. Hurricanes101:

Little confused here. The tropical wave in the NW Caribbean looks healthier than either of the systems that spawned Colin and Danielle.

Anything going on there?


It may *look* healthier than those two, but there's nothing going on at the surface. Additionally, there's a ULL sitting in the BOC that will cripple any chances of development.

Quoting 213. ProgressivePulse:

How low can you go?



Interesting there's a mini peak of average shear in August I would've thought the opposite would occur
Would this line in ILL. be called a Derecho?
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WFUS53 KLOT 230242  
TORLOT  
ILC099-105-230315-  
/O.NEW.KLOT.TO.W.0012.160623T0242Z-160623T0315Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL  
942 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
SOUTH CENTRAL LA SALLE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
NORTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
 
* UNTIL 1015 PM CDT  
 
* AT 942 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WENONA...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF  
STREATOR...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF  
SOUTH CENTRAL LA SALLE AND NORTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON COUNTIES...  
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS: CORNELL AND LONG POINT.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TORNADOES ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. DO NOT  
WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 4101 8903 4110 8901 4110 8864 4091 8878  
TIME...MOT...LOC 0242Z 285DEG 32KT 4105 8896  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...0.00IN  
 
 
 
IZZI  
 
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 287
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL...NORTHERN AND EASTERN INDIANA
NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 1025
PM UNTIL 500 AM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...A GROUPING OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME STILL MORE ORGANIZED AS IT ACCELERATES INTO AND
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME THE MAIN
THREAT...PERHAPS WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE ENOUGH TO QUALIFY AS A
DERECHO. EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS ALSO MAY REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
A TORNADO OR TWO. SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1024 FOR FURTHER
INITIAL DETAILS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
LAFAYETTE INDIANA TO 50 MILES SOUTH OF COLUMBUS OHIO. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
Quoting 225. Seattleite:

Lol... apparently one has a "squeegee team" to dispatch to remove water from the field. Any guesses on how many squeegee's one would need to clear a FIFA soccer field?

Link to Guardian live blog again.

In other news, I'd really like the match to start so Fox Sports 1 will turn off the repeat of yesterday's semi between Argentina and the US...

Yes please.

Play should resume at 11:20pm ET.
Quoting 229. gulfbreeze:

Would this line in ILL. be called a Derecho?


There are still individual mesocyclonic cells, so its not a derecho yet. However, if the cells come together into a continuous progressive line they may still be called a derecho before the night is through.
Quoting 229. gulfbreeze:

Would this line in ILL. be called a Derecho?


Not sure it meets the definition provided above by Dr. Hensen

The current definition of “derecho” in the AMS Glossary is “a widespread convectively induced straight-line windstorm. Specifically, the term is defined as any family of downburst clusters produced by an extratropical mesoscale convective system.” In order to place an event as a derecho in the NWS Storm Data archive, wind damage and/or wind gusts of at least 50 knots (57 mph) must extend along a band at least 250 miles long, with at least three reports of gusts reaching 65 knots (74 mph) separated by at least 40 miles.
Quoting 233. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yes please.

Play should resume at 11:20pm ET.
How late can you stay up?
Storm reports page is a good place to watch for derecho evidence. This image will update reports through 7 a.m. Please click image to go to the SPC storm report page for today/tonight.
Quoting 229. gulfbreeze:

Would this line in ILL. be called a Derecho?
No. That was a tornadic storm or two (add: or more, looks like now) with some twisters that lifted and touched down a few times - looks like from the storm re[ports. Not to say those storms couldn't become part of a derecho tonight - derecho being a fast-moving squall line type severe that packs severe wind over a long distance, 200 miles I think is the minimum. Interesting in the blog Bob Henson mentions a move afoot to redefine, or fine tune the standard derecho definition.

Anyway, in a derecho, on the storm report page you will see many, dozens, a hundred or more sometimes, severe wind reports. The span of blue marks will be wide from N to S and stretch a ways from W to E.

Sometimes derecho may be happening and the wind reports have not caught up. Haven't seen radar for a couple hours. A derecho-type squall line had not formed then. A real fast moving severe squall line, long from N to S is what you would see on radar.

(Please forgive me if you already knew the above. Perhaps someone reading did not.)
Oh, I see dj answered also and it's 250 miles.
;)
Quoting 234. SavannahStorm:



There are still individual mesocyclonic cells, so its not a derecho yet. However, if the cells come together into a continuous progressive line they may still be called a derecho before the night is through.

Thanks
For those in the realm of the derecho (posted in my blog originally on June 30, 2012)

Told my aunt in Ohio she's under the tornado watch. 5 AM. That sucks. She replied that she doesn't expect to get much sleep tonight. Oh well.

This is a very messy system, not sure if it will consolidate.

Quoting 236. BaltimoreBrian:

How late can you stay up?

As late as I want? :P

I'm surprised you're still awake. I know how early people get sleepy when they're old.
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TORNADO WARNING     CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL - KLOT 1003 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016
TORNADO WARNING     TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN - KMPX 1001 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016
And just think, Cody, I'll be 46 next week. Old enough to afford a painting portrait. Will you still need me...will you still feed me, when I'm 46?
Good information on weather downstream from Illinois. SPC already issued the watch. See comment 232.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1024
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0853 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN ILLINOIS/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INDIANA...AND WESTERN OHIO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 286...

VALID 230153Z - 230330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 286 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A TORNADO THREAT AND POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE VALID PORTION OF WW 286 IN MUCH OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. THROUGH 03Z...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL IL WITH THE ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS AS THEY TRACK TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR THE WARM FRONT.

A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED THIS EVENING FOR A TORNADO THREAT AND AN INCREASING SEVERE/DAMAGING WIND THREAT DOWNSTREAM OF WW 286.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN EARLY EVENING MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS...SOME TORNADIC...TRACKING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 25-30 KT...WITH THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT EXPECTED TO REMAIN 20-25 MILES EITHER SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT. AT 00-01Z...THIS FRONT EXTENDED FROM A SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST IA THROUGH THE COMPLEX OF SUPERCELLS IN NORTHERN IL TO CENTRAL INDIANA AND THEN TENDS TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE ACROSS CENTRAL OH. LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS IL/INDIANA HAVE STRENGTHENED FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 30-40 KT WITH 0-KM SRH INCREASING /ILX WSR-88D VWP 0-1 KM SRH 300+ M2/S2 AT 0124Z/. THIS LLJ IS ALSO PROVIDING A FEED OF VERY STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 2500-4000 J PER KG/...WHILE THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT EXTENDED SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

AND...THE STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE AIDING IN THE RETURN OF HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR /INTO CENTRAL INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL OHIO/. THIS DESTABILIZATION SUGGESTS THE TRACK OF AN EVENTUAL FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS/BOW WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL OHIO OVERNIGHT. A VEERING AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET TO 50-55 KT COMBINED WITH THE INFLUX OF VERY STRONG INSTABILITY TO THE UPSCALE GROWING MCS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE FORWARD SPEED...GREATLY ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 06/23/2016
Quoting 207. gulfbreeze:

All I know we are having a big 40th Anniversary Party on Pensacola Beach July 10th please keep all storms away from us until after the 10th!!!!

Hurricane Dennis hit on our 29th Anniversary in 2005 7/10/05 that was no fun!
We just had a tornado watch listed here in Indiana. We are also under a flash flood warning. I moved here from Ireland and we don't have tornado's so this is new to me. What am I supposed to do? Should I go to the basement and risk drowning from a flood or stay upstairs and die in a tornado? One thing is certain, I won't be sleeping tonight. But if I do, I'll be wearing a crash helmet and a life jacket.
Quoting 247. OLeary:

We just had a tornado watch listed here in Indiana. We are also under a flash flood warning. I moved here from Ireland and we don't have tornado's so this is new to me. What am I supposed to do? Should I go to the basement and risk drowning from a flood or stay upstairs and die in a tornado? One thing is certain, I won't be sleeping tonight. But if I do, I'll be wearing a crash helmet and a life jacket.


sarc You should go to an upstairs window and try to catch videos of the tornadoes. /sarc

Cheers
Qazulight
Quoting 244. BaltimoreBrian:

And just think, Cody, I'll be 46 next week. Old enough to afford a painting portrait. Will you still need me...will you still feed me, when I'm 46?


Happy (early) Birthday!
250. 882MB
The JTWC needs to update this image below. 96W looks real healthy and impressive on satellite. Same MJO pulse enhancing 96W, is the one expected in our basin next week, to 2 weeks.



96W







Quoting 238. Barefootontherocks:

Oh, I see dj answered also and it's 250 miles.
;)


i just quoted from the blog above.
The GFS has it moving faster in this run also has the system more west a little so could be a Texas hit in this run wait and see
The 0z GFS shows our system beginning to coalesce offshore Honduras/Nicaragua before 168hr--for those worried about whether or not the model is moving the timeframe up.
Well this thing the GFS really hates me in the 0z run it hits me straight on with tropical storm or low end hurricane earl it has it hit the Houston area straight on i know it will change most likely but seriously lol i have plans
Quoting 254. James1981cane:

Well this thing the GFS really hates me in the 0z run it hits me straight on with tropical storm or low end hurricane earl it has it hit the Houston area straight on i know it will change most likely but seriously lol i have plans


Don't count on it changing, my friend. Nature has declared war on Houston. A cat 1 in our area would be just as devastating as a Cat 5 right now. If you can leave---go!


I think the GFS is locking onto another storm that formed near the Nicaragua/Honduras border, the most infamous of all. 1961's Hurricane Carla!

Quoting 252. James1981cane:

The GFS has it moving faster in this run also has the system more west a little so could be a Texas hit in this run wait and see


Don't wait. If today is moving day for you, count your blessings.
Quoting 255. pureet1948:



Don't count on it changing, my friend. Nature has declared war on Houston. A cat 1 in our area would be just as devastating as a Cat 5 right now. If you can leave---go!


I think i will make it through it lol if it comes to fruition
Quoting 257. James1981cane:



I think i will make it through it lol if it comes to fruition

If it comes to fruition my friend you will experience:
1. flooding worse than what we saw on April 18.
2. Massive damage, perhaps more than what we saw with Hurricane Ike.
3. A power outage that could drag on for weeks, or possibly months.
4. And that's if it's only Cat 1. The MB pressure could drop even more, even though it's only July.

I think I should point out that this is almost just the same way Hurricane Carla in 1961 started out. And I suspect GFS is looking at some analog guidance.



Or will it be that damaging. Whaddya think?
Quoting 242. TropicalAnalystwx13:


As late as I want? :P

I'm surprised you're still awake. I know how early people get sleepy when they're old.


I have always liked nights and I prefer to go to bed about 6am. Now, and since I was about 18 (will be 45 next month)...is 6:17 now, so yes, a bit late for me I guess :P
250. 882MB
4:36 AM GMT on June 23, 2016


Just a few minutes until they release an update statement for tropical disturbances.
Off the SPC's Storm Reports list.

0419 100 4 NW BATTLE GROUND TIPPECANOE IN 4055 8689 (IND)

Anyone want 100 mph winds?

Edit: 9 minutes later another place nearby recorded 87 mph winds. The second report is time estimated.
Edit2: Going to bed. Stay safe up there in the Rust Belt.
Quoting 258. pureet1948:


If it comes to fruition my friend you will experience:
1. flooding worse than what we saw on April 18.
2. Massive damage, perhaps more than what we saw with Hurricane Ike.
3. A power outage that could drag on for weeks, or possibly months.
4. And that's if it's only Cat 1. The MB pressure could drop even more, even though it's only July.

I think I should point out that this is almost just the same way Hurricane Carla in 1961 started out. And I suspect GFS is looking at some analog guidance.



Or will it be that damaging. Whaddya think?



I live just to the south of Houston in Pasadena a 10 minute drive to Houston 15 to downtown and i experienced Ike my kids had no school for almost a month and we had no power for weeks if this happens we will have to face the horrible aftermath and i predict this thing will hit somewhere on the Texas coast even if this thing hits corpus we would still get high winds because we are to the east which is the worst part of the storm
Quoting 253. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The 0z GFS shows our system beginning to coalesce offshore Honduras/Nicaragua before 168hr--for those worried about whether or not the model is moving the timeframe up.



Just like Hurricane Carla in 1961.
Quoting 261. Astrometeor:

Off the SPC's Storm Reports list.

0419 100 4 NW BATTLE GROUND TIPPECANOE IN 4055 8689 (IND)

Anyone want 100 mph winds?

Edit: 9 minutes later another place nearby recorded 87 mph winds. The second report is time estimated.
Edit2: Going to bed. Stay safe up there in the Rust Belt.


high wind gusts (non tornado)?
Quoting 262. James1981cane:




I live just to the south of Houston in Pasadena a 10 minute drive to Houston 15 to downtown and i experienced Ike my kids had no school for almost a month and we had no power for weeks if this happens we will have to face the horrible aftermath and i predict this thing will hit somewhere on the Texas coast even if this thing hits corpus we would still get high winds because we are to the east which is the worst part of the storm


Suppose it doesn't get beyond Cat 1? I mean, Claudette was cat 1, we were to the east of it, and nothing happened.
250. 882MB
4:36 AM GMT on June 23, 2016


JTWC statement

An area of convection (96W) has persisted near 12.4N 118.6E, approximately 190 NM southwest of Manila, Philippines. Animated multispectral satellite imagery depicts a broad area of convection with a low level circulation center. Upper level analysis currently indicates a favorable environment due to radial diffluence aloft and good vertical wind shear (5-10 knots). However, global models do not show significant development of this disturbance as it tracks northwestward due to a westward moving upper-level low pressure system expected to move over the disturbance in the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10 to 15 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1008 MB.

Due to the degrading upper-level environment the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is LOW.
Quoting 265. pureet1948:



Suppose it doesn't get beyond Cat 1? I mean, Claudette was cat 1, we were to the east of it, and nothing happened.


well it all depends if it hits to the west we should get lots of banding rains causing flooding and strong wind
if it hits us straight on then we gotta worry about the Aftermath
Quoting 267. James1981cane:



well it all depends if it hits to the west we should get lots of banding rains causing flooding and strong wind
if it hits us straight on then we gotta worry about the Aftermath



You expect it to hit us straight on. Say, what about my comparison to Carla?
269. IDTH
.
Quoting 269. IDTH:

Ensembles persistent with a developing storm.





Everybody on the forum feels it will change.
271. IDTH
Ensembles persistent with a developing storm.


Quoting 268. pureet1948:




You expect it to hit us straight on. Say, what about my comparison to Carla?


It would be more like Ike
Quoting 273. LargoFl:




ep us houstodians are watching this
Quoting 274. James1981cane:



ep us houstodians are watching this
yes all of us around the gulf are too,guess its that time of year again.
just one thing to remember,right now its just watching model runs,when it was first noticed on GFS it had something hit into the Florida big bend area around 7/3 then up the east coast...now thru each day,runs change and where a storm comes ashore changes and also the time/day changes..the 0Z run now has it coming ashore in TX 7/8...so until something Does form ..its just something to watch,wait and see ok..but, its that time of year and we all..should be prepared huh
Quoting 276. LargoFl:

yes all of us around the gulf are too,guess its that time of year again.


Yes i guess i see it hitting anywhere from corpus christi to new orleans it won't go near florida
Quoting 244. BaltimoreBrian:

And just think, Cody, I'll be 46 next week. Old enough to afford a painting portrait. Will you still need me...will you still feed me, when I'm 46?


Old man... kidding... I am not that far behind you!
Quoting 255. pureet1948:



Don't count on it changing, my friend. Nature has declared war on Houston. A cat 1 in our area would be just as devastating as a Cat 5 right now. If you can leave---go!


I think the GFS is locking onto another storm that formed near the Nicaragua/Honduras border, the most infamous of all. 1961's Hurricane Carla!




Trust me. Houston would definitely live through a Category 1, lmao. It's fine if you're scared or whatever, but don't incite that onto everyone else.
Man this storm just woke me up 10 minutes ago! It was hailing and the winds were fairly intense, at least 60 mph! There is another storm behind it so we are not done yet! Severe Thunderstorm Warning expires at 5 AM...
Quoting 281. KoritheMan:



Trust me. Houston would definitely live through a Category 1, lmao. It's fine if you're scared or whatever, but don't incite that onto everyone else.


This might be a ghost storm... the GFS time shows this storm hitting Houston at noon on June 7th while yesterday night it was showing a landfall on June 6th.
Quoting 281. KoritheMan:



Trust me. Houston would definitely live through a Category 1, lmao. It's fine if you're scared or whatever, but don't incite that onto everyone else.


Your absolutely right. If you say that or Beel, Gro, TA, and many others, we'd know it was a joke. This has gone on long enough. That's was just fear mongering and inappropriate for a blog such as this. Troll em off the bridge.
285. beell
Quoting 227. CybrTeddy:



It may *look* healthier than those two, but there's nothing going on at the surface. Additionally, there's a ULL sitting in the BOC that will cripple any chances of development.





If you ask me-and no one did ;), the ULL is sited far enough away and in a good spot to ventilate/establish outflow atop the wave. Not all ULL's are bad.

Land interaction is still an issue.
folks in these area's..stay alert and safe today............................................
Wow those eighteen tornadoes over north central Illinois were really condensed. Very glad they were not like that and stronger over the Chicago area. Amazing how far Chicago burbs stretch.
Quoting 287. DeepSeaRising:

Wow those eighteen tornadoes over north central Illinois were really condensed. Very glad they were not like that and stronger over the Chicago area. Amazing how far Chicago burbs stretch.
yes its a really dangerous storm
in the Caribbean,sure looks like something is trying to form down there.............
OK the next GFS is showing development starting earlier at 138
Quoting 289. LargoFl:

in the Caribbean,sure looks like something is trying to form down there.............


I would give a a small chance but it could surprise you never know
a storm moving north out of the BOC into Texas. this one could be alot stronger than the models forecast
294. beell
Perhaps the most consistent feature involved in the GFS's tropical tickle is the strong summertime ridge over the western US. Which would imply some degree of east coast troughing. Just a short step from there to a col between western US/MX and sub-tropical Atlantic ridging.

So...for now, a storm which has not selected which "weekend" it will make landfall, and a storm that may not know where to go when it gets there-because of weak steering, This is in addition to there not being anything "there" yet.

Pretty confident about the summertime ridge. Mostly because it's summertime.
:)

Mostly kiddin'. Still on the watch list here in Houston
295. beell
Quoting 294. beell:

Perhaps the most consistent feature involved in the GFS's tropical tickle is the strong summertime ridge over the western US. Which would imply some degree of east coast troughing. Just a short step from there to a col between western US/MX and sub-tropical Atlantic ridging.

So...for now, a storm which has not selected which "weekend" it will make landfall, and a storm that may not know where to go when it gets there-because of weak steering, This is in addition to there not being anything "there" yet.

Pretty confident about the summertime ridge. Mostly because it's summertime.
:)

Mostly kiddin'. Still on the watch list here in Houston




Yes we are worrying a little lol
I haven't been through a storm with this much sustained thunder in a long time, and it looks like we still have hours to go in the DC area. Should make for an interesting day.
Ok the GFS is showing a hit on NOLA so everyone from the Texas coast to new Orleans needs to watch the track will keep changing from NOLA to Houston because there is weak steering so it doesn't know where to go. My brother that works at the NHC SAID IF IT DID FORM RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD HIT NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI
nw carib. and boc looks ready for action. good luck all this hurricane season
6z GFS is back into Lousiana
what is missing this yr for e central florida? thunderstorm season on the coast. had a couple days so far but that has been it.
302. beell
Quoting 296. James1981cane:





Yes we are worrying a little lol


No worries here. The world could end today.


Seize the Carp!
Quoting 298. James1981cane:

Ok the GFS is showing a hit on NOLA so everyone from the Texas coast to new Orleans needs to watch the track will keep changing from NOLA to Houston because there is weak steering so it doesn't know where to go. My brother that works at the NHC SAID IF IT DID FORM RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD HIT NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI
ok, this far out don't get fixed on a direct hit. Anyone from the FL to Tx on the gulf coast should watch out if there's a Storm
Good Morning and here are the storm reports from yesterday.

today Reports Graphic


I was watching TWC last night until about 10:00 pm EST then fell asleep and see no mention on the blog comments below (everyone is still talking about a possible storm in the Atlantic in the long term); did a Derecho ever form overnight?
And here is the outlook for today and reports from the last 3 hours:

last3hours Reports Graphic


Yes. The timeline does keep moving out.

Quoting 283. tigerdeF:



This might be a ghost storm... the GFS time shows this storm hitting Houston at noon on June 7th while yesterday night it was showing a landfall on June 6th.
I hate to burst anyone bubbles, sense everyone is so fixed on a hurricane or some sort of Storm hitting somewhere from Texas to La or any gulf coast members, why get worked up when the GFS keeps it over 300hrs? Do you realize that's 2 weeks away and it's not a fact that any storm will form. Not saying nothing won't form anytime by suprise and models could be on to something but it's hard to get excited over 300 hrs. I'm a winter weather fan I see these things happen all the time when models starts playing with your mind
And the current look; impressive.............

Central Great Lakes sector loop
Northeast sector loop


Another bad day for Dutch insurers. Terrific T-storms with associated home floodings.
Hey Folks,

Can somebody shoot me the links to see the GFS and Euro forecast run maps for hurricane development? I have a hard time finding the actual maps showing the where the lows may develop.

thank you! Jim
It's fine to discuss tropical systems, and in the long term and in June/July, but the main weather event at the moment is the system over Conus; impressive numbers so far with 19 tornados yesterday.

Quoting 310. adjusterjh:

Hey Folks,

Can somebody shoot me the links to see the GFS and Euro forecast run maps for hurricane development? I have a hard time finding the actual maps showing the where the lows may develop.

thank you! Jim


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
Quoting 312. tigerdeF:



http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/


Besides Wunderground, my favorite website. :D
314. MahFL
Quoting 304. weathermanwannabe:

did a Derecho ever form overnight?


The NWS has to do an analysis before they can declare a Derecho.
Quoting 298. James1981cane:

Ok the GFS is showing a hit on NOLA so everyone from the Texas coast to new Orleans needs to watch the track will keep changing from NOLA to Houston because there is weak steering so it doesn't know where to go. My brother that works at the NHC SAID IF IT DID FORM RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD HIT NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI


James you really need to calm down a little and why not let your brother speak for himself if he has views on the modeled system maybe a twitter link or Facebook post? I don't think it is necessary to get worked over something that has not even formed yet might even happen.
Quoting 315. sporteguy03:



James you really need to calm down a little and why not let your brother speak for himself if he has views on the modeled system maybe a twitter link or Facebook post? I don't think it is necessary to get worked over something that has not even formed yet might even happen.


i know lol just need to addd drama
Quoting 298. James1981cane:

Ok the GFS is showing a hit on NOLA so everyone from the Texas coast to new Orleans needs to watch the track will keep changing from NOLA to Houston because there is weak steering so it doesn't know where to go. My brother that works at the NHC SAID IF IT DID FORM RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD HIT NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI


No can accurately predict that. If I were to even believe what you said in the first place, that is.
318. beell
Quoting 311. weathermanwannabe:

It's fine to discuss tropical systems, and in the long term and in June/July, but the main weather event at the moment is the system over Conus; impressive numbers so far with 19 tornados yesterday.




19 tornado reports Actual count could go down/up.
Quoting 316. James1981cane:



i know lol just need to addd drama


Uh, no you don't. lol
320. ariot
Quoting 297. 1Zach1:

I haven't been through a storm with this much sustained thunder in a long time, and it looks like we still have hours to go in the DC area. Should make for an interesting day.


It missed us up in NE MD -- but we have a steady rain for rush hour.

On sustained thunder (and heavy rain) I spent most summers in Mobile, Ala. growing up. The weather lately in the Mid-A reminds me more of Mobile every year that passes. That's not a good thing. I wonder what our fine capital will be like in another 20. There ain't nothing like a T-Storm in Mobile. :-)
Nate Hermann of Serena, a rural town just north of Seneca, told the Chicago Tribune that area communities are “wiped out everywhere.” He described downed power lines and tree, and flattened corn crops.
Quoting 298. James1981cane:

Ok the GFS is showing a hit on NOLA so everyone from the Texas coast to new Orleans needs to watch the track will keep changing from NOLA to Houston because there is weak steering so it doesn't know where to go. My brother that works at the NHC SAID IF IT DID FORM RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD HIT NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI
You stated previously that your brother works in the "Atmospheric Services Division" of the NHC--but the NHC has no such division. The NHC is divided into five units/branches: the Office of the Director (OD), the Hurricane Specialist Unit (HSU), the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB), the Technology & Science Branch (TSB), and the Storm Surge Unit (SSU). You've previously mentioned that your brother is in charge of analyzing and forecasting, plus is responsible for approving and disseminating hurricane forecasts to the public. That rules out his working in either the OD, the TSB, or the SSU, leaving only the HSU or the TAFB. Now, TAFB personnel do analysis and forecasting, but they're not hurricane specialists, and neither do they interact with the public, so he likely doesn't work there. That leaves only the HSU. In total, that branch employees 12 people. One of them is the branch chief, and one is the US Navy hurricane specialist. That leaves a pool of just ten people that would include your brother. And every one of those people is a highly educated forecaster, most with multiple advanced degrees, so it's hard to imagine a single one of them telling his kid brother the precise landfall location of a tropical cyclone that doesn't even exist yet, if it ever exists at all.

So what's the story? Are you being dishonest about your brother's place of employment? Or are you telling the truth about that, but being dishonest about what he said? Either way, you should stop. Please.
Good morning from sunny Antigua and Barbuda
I've watched a lot of flooding videos, but this takes the bizarre biscuit

Flooding in Chinese shopping mall
Quoting 298. James1981cane:

Ok the GFS is showing a hit on NOLA so everyone from the Texas coast to new Orleans needs to watch the track will keep changing from NOLA to Houston because there is weak steering so it doesn't know where to go. My brother that works at the NHC SAID IF IT DID FORM RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD HIT NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI
Good morning James. Its cool you have a bro working at the NHC. My Grandfather flew with the Hurricane Hunters back in the 1940,s and 50,s. His name was Mathew Fergan. I was wondering what your brothers name is? I may have seen him down there.
328. Ed22
Right now we've got invest 95L over the extreme Western Caribbean Sea, not much development till it reaches the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico (Bay of Campeche)...
Quoting 323. Neapolitan:

You stated previously that your brother works in the "Atmospheric Services Division" of the NHC--but the NHC has no such division. The NHC is divided into five units/branches: the Office of the Director (OD), the Hurricane Specialist Unit (HSU), the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB), the Technology & Science Branch (TSB), and the Storm Surge Unit (SSU). You've previously mentioned that your brother is in charge of analyzing and forecasting, plus is responsible for approving and disseminating hurricane forecasts to the public. That rules out his working in either the OD, the TSB, or the SSU, leaving only the HSU or the TAFB. Now, TAFB personnel do analysis and forecasting, but they're not hurricane specialists, and neither do they interact with the public, so he likely doesn't work there. That leaves only the HSU. In total, that branch employees 12 people. One of them is the branch chief, and one is the US Navy hurricane specialist. That leaves a pool of just ten people that would include your brother. And every one of those people is a highly educated forecaster, most with multiple advanced degrees, so it's hard to imagine a single one of them telling his kid brother the precise landfall location of a tropical cyclone that doesn't even exist yet, if it ever exists at all.

So what's the story? Are you being dishonest about your brother's place of employment? Or are you telling the truth about that, but being dishonest about what he said? Either way, you should stop. Please.
Thank You...
Quoting 325. yonzabam:

I've watched a lot of flooding videos, but this takes the bizarre biscuit

Flooding in Chinese shopping mall
The Chinese have been flooding the markets for years. I've just never seen it illustrated quite so literally... ;-)
I cranked the ol' NOAA radio yesterday evening in Cent. Ind. prepping for last nights storms. Set it on standby and about 0100EST That familiar voice came on to warn of the 100mph storm referenced above. I grabbed my phone and looked at radar. That particular storm missed to the NE of me, and my area was never warned on THAT storm. The second round was warned for me, brought some strong winds, very small hail and torrential rains.

I know what I did without the radio before (Slept through the warnings), but I'm thankful the wifey bought it for me last fathers day. I'm sure most of us on here have one, but don't hesitate to snag one for Grams/Gramps/loved ones.
332. Ed22
Quoting 322. JrWeathermanFL:

95L


Development of this (95L) is very possible when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico (Bay of Campeche)... It looks pretty impressive right now...
000
ABNT20 KNHC 231149
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea are associated with a tropical wave and a weak low
pressure area. Development of this system is not expected today
due to it moving over the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize later today.
Some development of this system is possible on Friday if the
system emerges over the Bay of Campeche before again moving inland
on Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent


$$
Forecaster Blake
Does anyone know if/when we will know if a derecho did occur last night and how long it will take to show supporting radar? Prayers to all of those affected by last nights storms...
Invest 95L has a nice spin on the visible satellite images.
Quoting 323. Neapolitan:

You stated previously that your brother works in the "Atmospheric Services Division" of the NHC--but the NHC has no such division. The NHC is divided into five units/branches: the Office of the Director (OD), the Hurricane Specialist Unit (HSU), the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB), the Technology & Science Branch (TSB), and the Storm Surge Unit (SSU). You've previously mentioned that your brother is in charge of analyzing and forecasting, plus is responsible for approving and disseminating hurricane forecasts to the public. That rules out his working in either the OD, the TSB, or the SSU, leaving only the HSU or the TAFB. Now, TAFB personnel do analysis and forecasting, but they're not hurricane specialists, and neither do they interact with the public, so he likely doesn't work there. That leaves only the HSU. In total, that branch employees 12 people. One of them is the branch chief, and one is the US Navy hurricane specialist. That leaves a pool of just ten people that would include your brother. And every one of those people is a highly educated forecaster, most with multiple advanced degrees, so it's hard to imagine a single one of them telling his kid brother the precise landfall location of a tropical cyclone that doesn't even exist yet, if it ever exists at all.

So what's the story? Are you being dishonest about your brother's place of employment? Or are you telling the truth about that, but being dishonest about what he said? Either way, you should stop. Please.
Man, that's some intense sleuthing. It looks to me that his brother was just speculating with him privately about something that doesn't exist, but has a potential to. My brothers and I do this in our respective fields too (law and pharmaceuticals). I highly doubt his brother would make a public proclamation about a non-existent storm.
340. Ed22
Quoting 322. JrWeathermanFL:

95L


Could this Invest 95L be the future Earl weather enthusiast?
Well, as a severe weather nerd, I must say the forecast was a letdown bust in Southern WI. Mostly light thundershowers across southern WI with our area hardly getting a rumble of thunder. Area too stable from AM rains. Only thing we got were extra mosquitoes.
Scary stuff, Ohio teen dies after contracting brain-eating amoeba during out-of-state trip....Link
Regardless of development, this storm will probably hit areas flooded by Danielle.

But 95L lookin smaller today



China extreme weather: Dozens die in Jiangsu province
BBC, 5 minutes ago
Fifty-one people have died and dozens have been injured in eastern China as a result of extreme weather events, Chinese state media says.
News agency Xinhua reports that the province of Jiangsu was hit by lightning, rainstorms, hailstorms and a tornado.
Homes in Yancheng city were flattened as storms hit on Thursday afternoon, it said.
This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly. ...


Chinese State Media Say 51 Killed by Powerful Tornado
By The Associated Press, BEIJING - Jun 23, 2016, 8:52 AM ET
Chinese state media say a powerful tornado has killed 51 people and destroyed a large number of buildings in the eastern province of Jiangsu.
The reports said the tornado formed near the city of Yancheng on Thursday. They said large numbers of people were injured and roads were blocked.
Southern and eastern China have experienced weeks of torrential rain and storms that have caused widespread flooding and a number of casualties.


First pics.
346. Ed22
Quoting 322. JrWeathermanFL:

95L


Future development of invest 95L is certainly possible...
Quoting 340. Ed22:

Could this Invest 95L be the future Earl weather enthusiast?




Environment moist, not sure about the shear forecast tomorrow when it gets into the Bay, but heck, who knows, gotta wait and see how fast that ULL moves and how 95L holds up over the Yucatan.

I really don't care if we seem to be "wasting" names on short lived weak storms, because so far they've all made landfall and I guess it'd be pretty cool to get to the Greek Alphabet :)
Quoting 297. 1Zach1:

I haven't been through a storm with this much sustained thunder in a long time, and it looks like we still have hours to go in the DC area. Should make for an interesting day.


This morning's MCC is out of the area diving off to our south and east. Most action was south of my location in College Park MD.

But round 2 of severe storms this evening is a real threat when the sun comes out and we destabilize. In between, warm sunny and rather humid.
Quoting 283. tigerdeF:



This might be a ghost storm... the GFS time shows this storm hitting Houston at noon on June 7th while yesterday night it was showing a landfall on June 6th.


So now we are doing 348 day forecasts :-). It may be slightly off that far out.



Substituting July, it's still too far out to trust or act on. Your hurricane plan should have been completed prior to season start anyway.. Mother's day is probably a good deadline
Most Intensity Models take 95L to near or at least a Tropical Storm.


The earliest 5th storm right now is July 11th, and 95L could have something to say about that.

no one predicted this onslaught of cyclones early season. nw carib because it was so dry and hot over the past yr once the moisture moved in the area became prime breeding grounds.
353. Ed22
Quoting 326. barbamz:


The NHC has finally picked up on tropical wave, finally...
Quoting 351. JrWeathermanFL:



The earliest 5th storm right now is July 11th, and 95L could have something to say about that.


If this system becomes Earl, and breaks this record, then it is time to start looking at the earliest F storm, which is July 21st, and which looks pretty likely we could beat also.
I haven't made much comment on the potential future western Caribbean system, but the GFS is showing a rather nice ULAC establishing itself over the system.



Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01
21:00 PM JST June 23 2016
===========================
SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 12.3N 117.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 13 knots.

Dvorak intensity: T2.0

Forecast and intensity
=================
24 HRS: 14.7N 113.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
Quoting 356. HadesGodWyvern:

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01
21:00 PM JST June 23 2016
===========================
SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 12.3N 117.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 13 knots.

Dvorak intensity: T2.0

Forecast and intensity
=================
24 HRS: 14.7N 113.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea


Been so dead in the Pacific, hardly seen you post!
Quoting 355. CybrTeddy:

I haven't made much comment on the potential future western Caribbean system, but the GFS is showing a rather nice ULAC establishing itself over the system.





if something does develop, conditions look favorable. however, none of the other models are picking up on this feature and are instead picking up on an EPAC storm. either way, we will find out which models are right and wrong
Another blog hole it seems.
Quoting 339. SouthTampa:

Man, that's some intense sleuthing.
Oh, not that intense; just a visit to NHC's Staff page.
Quoting 339. SouthTampa:

It looks to me that his brother was just speculating with him privately about something that doesn't exist, but has a potential to...
I don't think so; the OP has already admitted that s/he was simply trolling ("I know lol just need to addd drama").

We're headed into the real thick of the season, so I'm just trying to keep things real here, that's all.
Quoting 360. Neapolitan:

Oh, not that intense; just a visit to NHC's Staff page. I don't think so; the OP has already admitted that s/he was simply trolling ("I know lol just need to addd drama").

We're headed into the real thick of the season, so I'm just trying to keep things real here, that's all.
Thanks Nea. We'll see if any clarification will be forthcoming from J-cane today. if not: Poof!
Anyone have a link for the GFS?
Station 44402 - SOUTHEAST BLOCK CANYON - 130 NM SE of Fire Island, NY, is in event mode. Which means it has detected a tsunami...Does not mean there is one, but it is flashing...Link
Tornado in China kills 51

June 23, 2016
Beijing (CNN)At least 51 people have been killed after a tornado -- accompanied by hailstorms, thunderstorms and lightning -- hit eastern China early Thursday afternoon, according to China's state news agency Xinhua.

The severe weather swept through parts of Yancheng city in Jiangsu Province around 2:30 p.m. local time, injuring dozens. Scores of cars were swept away and factories were flattened in Yancheng city after the extreme weather hit populous regions.
Emergency responders have been deployed to the scene.
Quoting 363. hydrus:

Station 44402 - SOUTHEAST BLOCK CANYON - 130 NM SE of Fire Island, NY, is in event mode. Which means it has detected a tsunami...Does not mean there is one, but it is flashing...Link.                  

Could it maybe be a rogue wave?
Quoting 316. James1981cane:



i know lol just need to addd drama


No, you don't.
367. bwi
As I thought, the thunderstorms from the midwest poofed into a nice gentle rain for the DC area this morning. Was a beautiful 80 degrees yesterday -- we stayed north of the warm front all night at my house at least. Nice windows open sleeping night.
Quoting 340. Ed22:

Could this Invest 95L be the future Earl weather enthusiast?


I am not sure the invest will become "Earl, the weather enthusiast".

Although, that would be pretty cool if it started giving us local updates on what it was planning to do.

Quoting 360. Neapolitan:

Oh, not that intense; just a visit to NHC's Staff page. I don't think so; the OP has already admitted that s/he was simply trolling ("I know lol just need to addd drama").

We're headed into the real thick of the season, so I'm just trying to keep things real here, that's all.


I thought you wanted to keep things fake. Why? Cuz you're a leftist obviously...you claim to sleep on the central part of the bed, but WE KNOW you sleep on the left side. It's comfier and is less worn out. Ha! Yes! The secret is out now.

Jokes aside, I do appreciate your contributions to the blog quite a bit, usually very informative.
Quoting 362. cat6band:

Anyone have a link for the GFS?


Tropical Tidbits
371. Ed22
Quoting 335. hydrus:


Well tropical Atlantic is setting up to be very active for next month...
Above average vertical wind shear for aug-oct says CFS and with cooling ocean temps this could be another very quiet hurricane season.
Quoting 360. Neapolitan:
We're headed into the real thick of the season, so I'm just trying to keep things real here, that's all.
No problem, Nea, you always seem to have a proper way of keeping it real around here ;-)
The break from the humidity in ILM is just that, a break. Back into the normal swing of summer tomorrow.

As of 315 AM Thursday...The most uncomfortable day of the week is
expected Fri and we may see the heat index near 105 for an hour or
two. The highest probability for this will be across inland South
Carolina. Highs on Fri will be mainly in the mid 90s although a
few upper 90s will be possible inland. Humidity levels will be
higher on Fri than on Thu, thus making it just that much more
uncomfortable for most.

High heat and increasing columnar moisture will combine with
increasing instability and frontal lift/convergence for the
development of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. A
weak upper level disturbance is also expected to move across the
area around the time of peak heating Fri. Strong thunderstorms are
expected and there is a risk for severe weather to include damaging
winds and some hail. SPC continues to include the area in a slight
risk for severe weather Fri and Fri night.
In terms of the short term tropics things are most active with the ITCZ at the moment in the West Pac and Indian Ocean where we also have the hottest SSTs around the world at present but with current moderate to high shear levels:





Combined image of all basins





I see the NHC has pulled the trigger.A nice surprise to wake up to this morning and it appears a weak T.D at least could spin up.As noted some of the intensity models bring this up to a weak T.S.Now here's the dirty
Interesting to see that we have 95L, would be interesting to see if it will become Earl. I'd say it has a 30-40% chance of doing so once in the BOC.

Also nice to see the possibility of the first named system occuring in the Western Pacific. The GFS was very aggressive for a few runs but then almost dropped the system altogether. I expect we'll see a bunch of activity in the Western Pacific come mid July onawards when peak of the season usually comes alive.

The last 12-18 hours has been very interesting where I am. Last night the sky was illuminated by lots and lots of lightning followed by many rumbles of thunder. In fact the lightning was so intense and frequent that it lit up the living room enough that I could read in the dark for 5-10 minutes! The thunderstorms have continued on today with more lightning and thunder, but with much more intense rain - I currently cannot see very far out my window due to how much rain is coming down at the moment. Good news for the plants, bad news for me as once some sunny weather arrives grass pollen is going to skyrocket.
Quoting 376. Patrap:




NHC seems content on it just crossing the Yucatan, developing a bit and then plowing into Mexico probably affecting the same areas as Danielle. I'm guessing the same steering currents are in place, seems High pressure is settled over the Southeast and keeping anything from going anywhere but into Mexico which is a good thing fort he Gulf Coast states.
381. IDTH
Wow we got 95L which could affect some of the same areas Danielle affected. Intensity models bring it up to tropical storm strength so we may very well get Earl before the possible July storm the GFS has been hinting at for a while.
Meanwhile, the Pacific remains virtually shut down, quite a stark contrast to last year when several hurricanes had formed by now. This is truly remarkable and I do not see the trend ending anytime soon. Perhaps within the next 10 days something will try to get going as a strong upward motion (MJO) pulse is forecast to move through the region, helping to promote tropical convection and thus increasing the chances for development.
M. Sudduth 10:50 AM ET June 23
NOUS42 KNHC 231331
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT THU 23 JUNE 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z JUNE 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-028

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 24/1800Z A. 25/1130Z
B. AFXXX 01CCA INVEST B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE
C. 24/1500Z C. 25/0900Z
D. 19.5N 94.0W D. 20.5N 96.5W
E. 24/1730Z TO 24/2130Z E. 25/1100Z TO 25/1500Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
Nothing but High Pressure and clear skies across the Southeast.

385. IDTH

Quoting 384. 69Viking:

Nothing but High Pressure and clear skies across the Southeast.




*except South Florida*
95L is looking pretty good. I wouldn't be suprised if they upped it's probability of development to 30 or 40%.
Quoting 388. NCHurricaneTracker69:

95L is looking pretty good. I wouldn't be suprised if they upped it's probability of development to 30 or 40%.


And if it develops along with the (potential) storm next week, we could end up with an F named storm by July 7th
391. IDTH

95L looks stalled out this Am
393. IDTH
Quoting 392. Tazmanian:

95L looks stalled out this Am

I'd have to agree
no worries here with 95L as the big H is right over us.

These are surface charts, a rare sight here.

Quoting 388. NCHurricaneTracker69:

95L is looking pretty good. I wouldn't be suprised if they upped it's probability of development to 30 or 40%.
It has a good spin tucked under the bubble of convection.
1. Philippines screenshot - 1600 GMT. 2. 96 W xx/xx/xx :

Starting to doubt my prediction of 15 named storms will hold lol especially if we get Earl in the next couple days from 95L and maybe something in early July as well.
Quoting 384. 69Viking:

Nothing but High Pressure and clear skies across the Southeast.



Yuck I hate it. I was really hoping for an unbroken period of rain which we started a week ago or so. Plants are already shriveling up from the dryness around my house.

I will say though, my Dad in Ft. Walton beach says they just got a good rain, apparently there is a little raincloud moving from there towards Niceville.

The GFS has moved down the time frame of formation...At least that's a start.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 362. cat6band:

Anyone have a link for the GFS?


mag.ncep.noaa.gov has NCEP model outputs.
Things are still quite active on the East coast in terms of wind reports but looking like it should clear out completely in time for the weekend:

last3hours Reports Graphic
Oh wow 95L just saying if 95L become Earl and future 96L/GFS storm become Fiona that would be two more early records broken
Damn this season is really going


Btw guys about a week ago or a little over a week ago GFS also predicted this system to form and become a storm but as time when on GFS started pushing back a little bit then dropped it and GFS was the only one to catch this one

Good job GFS for catching it it's only too bad you dropped
406. MahFL
Quoting 384. 69Viking:

Nothing but High Pressure and clear skies across the Southeast.




Actually it's surprisingly cloudy here in NE Florida, an extensive Cu field.
Quoting 406. MahFL:



Actually it's surprisingly cloudy here in NE Florida, an extensive Cu field.


We've been baking in sunshine for about 3 or 4 days here in S.W. Florida. I'm actually hoping for an afternoon T storm today.
The sea breeze storms returned yesterday after several days without them, but they missed my area (storms went just to my south and west).
Captiva Island looking north

Some of the shells my daughter and I collected yesterday. (Captiva is known as one of the best shelling beaches in the country). And we always check to make sure there is nothing still living in the shells. We throw back about half the shells we find for that reason.

408. Ed22
Quoting 404. wunderkidcayman:

Oh wow 95L just saying if 95L become Earl and future 96L/GFS storm become Fiona that would be two more early records broken
Damn this season is really going


Btw guys about a week ago or a little over a week ago GFS also predicted this system to form and become a storm but as time when on GFS started pushing back a little bit then dropped it and GFS was the only one to catch this one

Good job GFS for catching it it's only too bad you dropped
Right now, its maybe situation with Invest 95L where cyclone is concern, to me its doubtful at this time...