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Significant Severe Threat for Midwest on Wed; Danielle is Done; SW Still Cooking

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 4:16 PM GMT on June 21, 2016

Fierce thunderstorms capable of spawning significant tornadoes and very high winds are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening across an east-west corridor that will lie near or across the Chicago area. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center is predicting a moderate risk of severe weather for Wednesday PM extending from southeast Wisconsin and northeast Illinois to southeast Michigan and northwest Ohio (see Figure 1). “Moderate” is actually the second-highest category in the five-level SPC hierarchy of risk. It’s fairly unusual for SPC to issue such a high threat level on the morning before an event, which speaks to the volatility of the set-up expected to take shape.


Figure 1.. WU depiction of NOAA/SPC severe weather risk areas as of late Tuesday morning, June 21, 2016, valid on Day 1 (left, Tuesday) and Day 2 (right, Wednesday).

Tuesday is “the day before the day,” as a weak surface boundary extending from Nebraska into the Missouri and Ohio Valleys begins edging northward while a powerful upper-level impulse approaches from the west and a surface low organizes in the Central Plains. SPC has slight-risk zones for Tuesday afternoon and evening along the surface boundary from the western Dakotas all the way to the mid-Atlantic. Where and when storms unfold in the Midwest on Tuesday night will help influence the scenario on Wednesday. A mesoscale convective system, or MCS (a large, persistent thunderstorm complex) may develop in South Dakota late Tuesday and move toward the Chicago area overnight, a frequent early-summer track. If this happens, it would leave a boundary of rain-cooled air somewhere just to its south—perhaps reinforcing the current surface boundary—with extensive clouds to its north. Any east-west surface boundaries could serve as focal belts for Wednesday afternoon’s storms, helping to concentrate the low-level “spin” (vorticity) that can feed tornadic supercells. It’s too soon to know exactly where the zone of greatest risk will end up, but the Chicago area is certainly a possibility.

The period of greatest concern is Wednesday afternoon and evening, when the upper-level impulse will approach the Great Lakes and a strong surface low will begin accelerating eastward along the surface boundary. Very rich low-level moisture will be in place, and southeasterly low-level winds will be overtopped by strong westerlies at middle and upper levels. These classic ingredients for supercell thunderstorms are projected by models to reach unusually intense values by late Wednesday. One possible scenario is for one or more long-lived supercell thunderstorms—potentially with significant tornadoes—persisting for several hours, most likely focused over northern Illinois and/or southern Wisconsin into southern Michigan and northern Indiana. These storms might then morph into an MCS that could tear eastward overnight into Ohio and Pennsylvania with very strong surface winds. If the storms consolidate quickly, it is certainly plausible we could have a Wednesday night derecho—a long corridor of damaging surface winds extending over several hours. Derechoes are extremely difficult to predict, as they hinge on dynamic and thermodynamic features that are often not clear until the event is at our doorstep, but the situation certainly bears a close watch.


Figure 2. The 4-km version of the NAM model run at 12Z (8:00 am EDT) Tuesday, June 21, 2016, valid at 9Z (5:00 am EDT) Thursday, June 23, 2016, indicates a large area of thunderstorm-driven winds at 850 mb (about a mile above the surface) exceeding 64 knots (74 mph). In such a situation, high winds would likely mix to the surface in some areas. Any model depiction of thunderstorm activity this far out involves great uncertainty, so this map should be seen not as a literal forecast but as a rough depiction of one of many potential scenarios. Image credit: tropicaltidbits.com.

Although severe weather is typically more frequent further to the south, the Chicago metro area is one of the nation’s most vulnerable to tornadoes and other severe threats. We looked at the potential threat of a violent, long-track tornado in Chicago in the post Big Wind in the Windy City. Victor Gensini, an associate professor of meteorology at the College of DuPage in the Chicago suburb of Glen Ellyn, is quite concerned about Wednesday’s outlook. “I would argue that this forecast severe weather environment is likely the most impressive (at least from an ingredients standpoint) ever to take shape over one of the nation’s biggest three metro areas,” he said in an email. Gensini’s group is planning to launch a special radiosonde on Wednesday afternoon in northern Illinois, where the ingredients may come together in an area poorly sampled by the standard NWS radiosonde network.


Figure 3. Michael Martinez drinks a bottle of water at a Salvation Army hydration station in an effort to beat rising temperatures in Phoenix on Monday, June 20, 2016. Phoenix set daily record highs of 118°F on Sunday and 116°F on Monday, which were the earliest readings above 115°F in city history. Image credit: AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin.

All-time heat record set on Tuesday in Blythe, CA
The atmospheric oven remains set on “high” across the Desert Southwest, where a fresh batch of records was seared into the weather annals on Tuesday. Chief among them was the 124°F at Blythe, CA, breaking the city’s all-time high of 123°F set most recently on July 28, 1995. Records in Blythe go back to 1948. Another standout in the Lower Colorado Valley was the 125°F reading at Needles, CA, the highest temperature ever observed there in June (previous record of 123°F was on June 29, 2013). Tuesday tied with the 125°F observed on July 17, 2015, for the highest temperature ever recorded in Needles, where records go back to 1941. Thanks to WU weather historian Christopher Burt for this tidbit. Needles is often the hottest location in the contiguous U.S., and back on August 14, 2012, Needles had a trace of rainfall at a temperature of 115°F, producing what appears to be a global record for the “hottest rain on Earth.” The hot spot on Monday was Death Valley, CA, which set a new daily high temperature record of 126°F (old record for the date: 125°F in 1961.) On top of these local records, the high temperature in Laughlin, Nevada hit 125°F. If verified, this would be a tie for the hottest temperature ever measured in state--a 125°F reading at Laughlin on June 29, 1994.

The most exceptional aspect of the Southwest heat wave is its location on the calendar, days earlier than similar heat has ever been recorded in many spots. On Wednesday morning, Phoenix scored its earliest low of 90°F on record, beating June 22, 1990. The intense upper-level high in place over the Southwest will be weakening slightly as the week rolls on, so this particular heat wave may have now crested, although excessive heat warnings continue in place for much of southeast CA, southwest AZ, and southern NV. Even with the heavy media attention paid to the hazards of this heat wave, it has taken an unfortunate toll: at least five people died from the heat on Sunday in Arizona. Several were young, in-shape hikers or bikers, a reminder that heat exhaustion and heat stroke can affect anyone, especially those without adequate access to water.

Another byproduct of the record heat atop multiyear drought is increased fire risk. Two major fires broke out on Monday very near each other in Azusa and Duarte, just north of the heavily populated San Gabriel Valley about 25 miles east of Los Angeles. The uncontained fires had grown to 5400 acres by Tuesday morning, prompting evacuations of more than 750 nearby residents.


Figure 4. Smoke from wildfires burning in Angeles National Forest fills the sky behind the Los Angeles skyline on Monday, June 20, 2016. Located several miles apart, the wildfires devoured hundreds of acres of brush on steep slopes above foothill suburbs erupted in Southern California as an intensifying heat wave stretching from the West Coast to New Mexico blistered the region with triple-digit temperatures. Image credit: AP Photo/Ringo H.W. Chiu

Danielle dissipates after making landfall as a 40 mph tropical storm
Tropical Storm Danielle made landfall near 7 pm CDT Monday ten miles north of Tuxpan, Mexico as a tropical storm with 40 mph winds. The rugged terrain of Mexico severely disrupted the storm, and Danielle dissipated early Tuesday morning. Lingering moisture from Danielle will continue to affect Mexico, bringing some areas of total rainfall amounts of 8 - 12" along the coast between Tampico and Veracruz, causing dangerous flash flooding and mudslides through Tuesday evening. So far, the highest rainfall amounts appear to be the  8+ inches that have fallen at Pozo Rica de Hidalgo; Tuxpan received 4.98", and Puebla, 5.33". No significant damages or casualties have been reported from the storm thus far. Danielle was a tropical storm for just twelve hours. Danielle's formation date of June 20 was the earliest appearance on record for the Atlantic's fourth named storm of the season; the previous record was June 23, 2012, when Tropical Storm Debby formed.

The tropical Atlantic looks like it will be quiet for the remainder of the week, with none of our reliable tropical cyclone genesis models showing anything developing.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters


Figure 5. Tropical Storm Danielle nearing landfall on Monday afternoon, June 20, 2016, as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite. At landfall, Danielle had top sustained winds of 40 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Severe Weather Hurricane Heat Extreme Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I wonder if that thunderstorm set up has the potential for a mid-Atlantic Derecho like 2012.
thanks for the lunch time read


Here I am on lunch break and I have nothing to ready lol
Quoting 3. Accu3535:

Here I am on lunch break and I have nothing to read lol
Torcon of six for us here in SC Wisconsin. Looks to be the most dangerous day in Wisconsin in many years. My town of Columbus was crushed by sustained winds of 90-110mph last year. Wiped out thousands of trees and many power poles. And it happened around four in the morning. This is shaping up to be Wisconsin's first tornado outbreak with the possibility of strong tornadoes that could be long trackers in over ten years. Not good.

Rotation visible in the cloud mass associated with the remnants of Danielle emerging off the Pacific coast near Ixtapa.
Haven't really heard much mentioned on the blog about the rescue taking place on the South Pole. It's been national news for several days and weather related due to the extreme cold rescue.

Dangerous rescue mission for sick man at South Pole

Link
JUNE 21, 2016, 7:43 AM|There are new developments in the risky mission to rescue a sick contractor at the American research station in the South Pole. Two aircraft have arrived on Antarctica. But as Dana Jacobson reports, the most dangerous part of their journey may still be ahead.
Thank You both; the Great Lakes event is a very serious situation given the set-up between the low and the jet. 


As you both mentioned the possibility of a Derecho event, SPC has a very good June paper (posted on their site) as to Derechos and a proposal for changing the criteria. I can't post the link from this particular computer but here is the text link (it's on the SPC home page today).
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/corfid i/junCorfidi.pdf
A PROPOSED REVISION TO THE DEFINITION OF “DERECHO”by Stephen F. Corfidi, Michael C. Coniglio, Ariel E. Cohen, and Corey M. M
Wishing you the best. Looks like a serious event.

Quoting 5. DeepSeaRising:

Torcon of six for us here in SC Wisconsin. Looks to be the most dangerous day in Wisconsin in many years. My town of Columbus was crushed by sustained winds of 90-110mph last year. Wiped out thousands of trees and many power poles. And it happened around four in the morning. This is shaping up to be Wisconsin's first tornado outbreak with the possibility of strong tornadoes that could be long trackers in over ten years. Not good.
This potential tornado event for the Great Lakes is consistent with traditional June and July climatology for that reion:

June:



July:
Quoting 7. Patrap:




...Water, water, every where,
Nor any drop to drink...


Looks good on the IR though.

Summer at the UW, thousands will be out and about. Majority will not be aware enough of what's possibly to come. This is not the Great Plains. "If" a strong long tracker were to go through populated areas in Wisconsin, then the toll would be much higher than a similar situation in the plains. We've had a very long run of good luck here when it comes to strong tornadoes. Historically, hasn't always been the case. Most are too young to remember we are a tornado prone state. Thank you for your kind words Haole!
My thoughts on next possible storm system

GFS I think GFS is forming system too late and too weak due to land interactions with Honduras and Nicaragua as well as Yucatan on some runs also lifting the system too late

I think system will get going early like gets going in the eastern part of the SW Caribbean near about 78/79/80W area between Jamaica and the Honduras/Nicaragua boarder coast system moves WNW-NWwards quickly develops maybe a strong TS or even a hurricane in the NW Caribbean passes through the Yucatan channel or W tip of Cuba and into the GOM

We will have to wait and see
it starts in about a week time or just a little over a week now
I'd say anyone from Jamaica Cayman Cuba Nicaragua Honduras Belize Yucatan and US Gulf Coast should keep eyes out IMO
The Yuma station indicates a gulf surge of low level tropical moisture coincident with the passage of an easterly wave across SoCal and northern Baja. The subtropical moisture band that gave us a fantastic sunset last evening here in the SF Bay Area is quasi-stationary over the north coast this AM, marking the boundary of the SW upper ridge. The forecast currently shows insufficient dynamics for anything out of the ordinary, for now. Coastal SSTs have dropped again due to stronger NW winds offshore, but no fog, probably because of the turbulence aloft disrupting the marine layer, but the cooling effect of those cold SSTs is also helping dampen convection. The only fly in the ointment is a persistent upper low further offshore which might set things off if it were to surge eastward.
Folks have TV fb phones and I'm sure many know bad weather is a threat.

I'll b rolling severe later if I am able. Traveling today.



Quoting 12. ChillinInTheKeys:



...Water, water, every where,
Nor any drop to drink...


Looks good on the IR though.


Non stop training Thunderstorms since 8a.m. this morning, a lot of water to drink here in the Falls area.
Another BOC storm....This is getting repetitive.A storm like Bertha (2008)
to track would be refreshing
Quoting 18. NativeSun:

Non stop training Thunderstorms since 8a.m. this morning, a lot of water to drink here in the Falls area.


The Fall's Tower was my landmark after Andrew. One time early on we crossed US 1 without either of us knowing it. I said "Look... We're East of Dixie. There's the tower to the West"... Freaked us both out. Still no rain here.

Link
Quoting 19. washingtonian115:

Another BOC storm....This is getting repetitive.A storm like Bertha (2008)
to track would be refreshing


Current models show it potentially heading into Louisiana through the Caribbean
Quoting 1. 1Zach1:

I wonder if that thunderstorm set up has the potential for a mid-Atlantic Derecho like 2012.


If you are talking about the Great Lakes 6/22 , yes. Actually here in the Mid Atlantic conditions aren't ideal but I am worried about Thursday from the same system. Most likely and comforting scenario (which is what usually happens) is clouds and MCC remnants will come in thursday morning, delay heating and save our necks yet again.
Quoting 21. tigerdeF:



Current models show it potentially heading into Louisiana through the Caribbean


The models are flipping and flopping from W Caribbean to BOC to W Caribbean to NW-N central GOM to W Caribbean to Florida at the moment it's a bit too early to say where it will go exactly
12Z GFS now takes a gulf Low,possible TS 1st week of July into Tx/La...............
26. bwi
Tornado warning for Howard county Maryland. (Between Baltimore and DC)
27. bwi
Ping pong sized hail is lighter than golf ball sized I think.

Tornado Warning
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
144 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016

MDC005-027-211800-
/O.CON.KLWX.TO.W.0021.000000T0000Z-160621T1800Z/
BALTIMORE MD-HOWARD MD-
144 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN BALTIMORE AND EASTERN HOWARD COUNTIES...

AT 144 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR ELLICOTT CITY...OR NEAR COLUMBIA...MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.
I see we have model watchers in full force. Expect sunny blue skies for next 2 weeks in the GOM from TX to FL, lol
Shakin in the Atlantic


Thanks Gentlemen, The smoke from those fires was thick over this way last night. Happy to see it was gone this morning.
Hi all. First time commenting on this blog. I am a weather geek from Chicago. Today is truly the calm before the storm: 78 degrees and clear blue sky. Tomorrow we are under a moderate threat for severe storms with possible supercells, hail and tornadoes! First time I'll be experiencing this, as I understand this is quite a rare occurrence. Be safe everyone.
Quoting 29. nrtiwlnvragn:

Shakin in the Atlantic





That's probably the biggest one since February 2015's surprise!
Quoting 15. wunderkidcayman:

I'd say anyone from Jamaica Cayman Cuba Nicaragua Honduras Belize Yucatan and US Gulf Coast should keep eyes out IMO



So... everyone. Got it.
Big population affected...... almost 3 million



Quoting 32. dmbsmokey:

Hi all. First time commenting on this blog. I am a weather geek from Chicago. Today is truly the calm before the storm: 78 degrees and clear blue sky. Tomorrow we are under a moderate threat for severe storms with possible supercells, hail and tornadoes! First time I'll be experiencing this, as I understand this is quite a rare occurrence. Be safe everyone.
yes stay alert and safe up there
Welcome, stay safe tomorrow. I live in South Alabama, we had a moderate risk back in February but storms in the gulf cut off the flow and we really lucked up. Maybe the same will happen to you.
Quoting 32. dmbsmokey:

Hi all. First time commenting on this blog. I am a weather geek from Chicago. Today is truly the calm before the storm: 78 degrees and clear blue sky. Tomorrow we are under a moderate threat for severe storms with possible supercells, hail and tornadoes! First time I'll be experiencing this, as I understand this is quite a rare occurrence. Be safe everyone.
Quoting 15. wunderkidcayman:

My thoughts on next possible storm system

GFS I think GFS is forming system too late and too weak due to land interactions with Honduras and Nicaragua as well as Yucatan on some runs also lifting the system too late

I think system will get going early like gets going in the eastern part of the SW Caribbean near about 78/79/80W area between Jamaica and the Honduras/Nicaragua boarder coast system moves WNW-NWwards quickly develops maybe a strong TS or even a hurricane in the NW Caribbean passes through the Yucatan channel or W tip of Cuba and into the GOM

We will have to wait and see
it starts in about a week time or just a little over a week now
I'd say anyone from Jamaica Cayman Cuba Nicaragua Honduras Belize Yucatan and US Gulf Coast should keep eyes out IMO

yes something for us to stay alert to here on the gulf coast
Quoting 32. dmbsmokey:

Hi all. First time commenting on this blog. I am a weather geek from Chicago. Today is truly the calm before the storm: 78 degrees and clear blue sky. Tomorrow we are under a moderate threat for severe storms with possible supercells, hail and tornadoes! First time I'll be experiencing this, as I understand this is quite a rare occurrence. Be safe everyone.
Welcome bro . If you have any questions, ask me and anyone else in here. Have fun and play nice.
Quoting 34. jeffs713:



So... everyone. Got it.


The over-reactions to blobs that barely even exist have always fascinated me while reading this blog....
Good day

It's 92, feeling like 101, and partly cloudy here on the island this afternoon.

Feeling a little jealous of Puerto Rico's rains yesterday. Not a drop over here and only 80 miles from us. It's so frustrating!

Gotta run and get the propane tank filled. Hope all is well with everybody!

Lindy
Quoting 13. DeepSeaRising:

Summer at the UW, thousands will be out and about. Majority will not be aware enough of what's possibly to come. This is not the Great Plains. "If" a strong long tracker were to go through populated areas in Wisconsin, then the toll would be much higher than a similar situation in the plains. We've had a very long run of good luck here when it comes to strong tornadoes. Historically, hasn't always been the case. Most are too young to remember we are a tornado prone state. Thank you for your kind words Haole!
So what do you think the chance is of Storms here in Wisconsin tomorrow bringing tornadoes?
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
TORNADO WARNING     MOUNT HOLLY NJ - KPHI 232 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC - KLWX 228 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 
Quoting 5. DeepSeaRising:

Torcon of six for us here in SC Wisconsin. Looks to be the most dangerous day in Wisconsin in many years. My town of Columbus was crushed by sustained winds of 90-110mph last year. Wiped out thousands of trees and many power poles. And it happened around four in the morning. This is shaping up to be Wisconsin's first tornado outbreak with the possibility of strong tornadoes that could be long trackers in over ten years. Not good.
I do think the worst case scenario for the South Central Wisconsin area is a strong tornado to go from down by Verona and pretty much parallel 151 through Madison and go straight down the isthmus and go through Sun Praire,and Columbus.
Does anyone know the most "homegrown " storms from June 1st until July 31st? Could someone please direct me to the archives of past seasons tracking maps? I have looked and cant find it.
Quoting 40. weatherwatcher80:



The over-reactions to blobs that barely even exist have always fascinated me while reading this blog....


Them's the ones you've got to look out for.
Quoting 45. scott39:

Does anyone know the most "homegrown " storms from June 1st until July 31st? Could someone please direct me to the archives of past seasons tracking maps? I have looked and cant find it.




Link
A powerful looking combination between the Conus jet and the upper-level lows (the one diving down from Canada and the one now off the NE coast) and how it is driving the current large-scale synoptic environment across the Northern Mid-West, Eastern Seaboard, and all the way down to the Caribbean with more to follow tomorrow:



Note my join date .

Was the reason I upgraded to no ads membership and to get the full 30 radar frames that comes with that.



Hmm... Interestingly, current GFS run is a lot less bullish about 95W possibilities. Still, the ingredients are there.
Central Caribbean Sea disturbance is gaining rotation in the lower levels. 850mb vorticity is increasing pretty quickly, indicative of development is possible before reaching the Yucatan Peninsula. I would be surprised if the NHC doesn't issue at least a 10-20% over the next five days for development by sometime tomorrow morning.
Quoting 51. TheDawnAwakening:

Central Caribbean Sea disturbance is gaining rotation in the lower levels. 850mb vorticity is increasing pretty quickly, indicative of development is possible before reaching the Yucatan Peninsula. I would be surprised if the NHC doesn't issue at least a 10-20% over the next five days for development by sometime tomorrow morning.

We'll seeif any of the models pick up on it.
I had some of the heaviest rain that I think I've ever witness occur a few minutes ago.Thank goodness I'm on bed rest and not out in the bad weather.The kids are out of school thankfully and at their grandmothers house.They were a little shaken but were okay.
56. Ed22
Quoting 51. TheDawnAwakening:

Central Caribbean Sea disturbance is gaining rotation in the lower levels. 850mb vorticity is increasing pretty quickly, indicative of development is possible before reaching the Yucatan Peninsula. I would be surprised if the NHC doesn't issue at least a 10-20% over the next five days for development by sometime tomorrow morning.
This spells trouble for the United States, Jamaica could get some rain, however I would give it 20%/40%. An area of low pressure could form, however its a wait and see situation, any update on the wind-shear pattern over the Caribbean?
Quoting 55. washingtonian115:

I had some of the heaviest rain that I think I've ever witness occur a few minutes ago.Thank goodness I'm on bed rest and not out in the bad weather.The kids are out of school thankfully and at their grandmothers house.They were a little shaken but were okay.


Washi, what's happened. Did I miss something (question mark not working)

-L
Quoting 53. NCHurricaneTracker69:


We'll seeif any of the models pick up on it.
The wave south of Jamaica is what the GFS was turning into Danielle part deluxe but has dropped the idea.However as we've seen before the area can spin up storms fast.


57. LindyVirginIslander
3:25 PM EDT on June 21, 2016
Good afternoon Lindy.I've been sick all week with a cold and told to rest with little activity so I've been only 20 feet from my bed in the last few days but tracking tropical weather is addicting!

not gonna be this hot today, but much more humid...
The straight line wind and hail reports are starting to pick up this afternoon along the front:

Northeast sector loop
Central Great Lakes sector looplast3hours Filtered Reports Graphic



Can not get my head around the fact that it's not even July yet..
As you can see by the Death Valley tempremature chart below, July and August have on average the hottest temps. (I think this is the stupidest comment I have ever made..)

I think tomorrow may have a derecho, but I dont think it will surpass June 29th, 2012.

I remember it well because I was at my local amusement park, Kings Island, when it struck us. It was BLAZING hot, 103 degrees... Got a warning from my mom that 80 mph winds were heading our way, we took cover in the Arcade and it hit, the winds were fairly bad, lightning and rain was intense, we got out and lights were blown out, trees fell on the entrance to the White Water Canyon River Rapid ride and other areas. The park did not open the rides back up for about 3 hours.

Warren County and Hamilton County(Cincinnati area) didnt get the most intense portion(that was Columbus) but we got hit nonetheless.


Summer of 2012 is still the hottest one I have experienced.

We are near the border of Enhanced Risk, we are in slight risk but I am prepared for the worst.
Quoting 61. JNFlori30A:

Can not get my head around the fact that it's not even July yet..
As you can see by the Death Valley tempremature chart below, July and August have on average the hottest temps. (I think this is the stupidest comment I have ever made..)



I like it, "tempremature".....
Quoting 23. wunderkidcayman:



The models are flipping and flopping from W Caribbean to BOC to W Caribbean to NW-N central GOM to W Caribbean to Florida at the moment it's a bit too early to say where it will go exactly


We have to have a system first. Mark Sudduth of hurricane track did an excellent video on the next ten days and the possibility of a system in the NW Caribbean.
Quoting 44. Geoboy645:

I do think the worst case scenario for the South Central Wisconsin area is a strong tornado to go from down by Verona and pretty much parallel 151 through Madison and go straight down the isthmus and go through Sun Praire,and Columbus.


That sounds quite plausible. Picture becoming clearer, looks like we may be in the area where these more discreet supercells begin to congeal into the MCS derecho. SPC unlikely to upgrade to high risk but for our neck of the woods and places south and east, this is as about as bad a forecast as we get. Patrap has a point, at least most everyone has some form of technology to inform them of what's coming. Alerting the public has really come a long way.
These two fires are now called the "San Gabriel Complex Fire," since they are now 1 fire...
Everyone have a safe weather evening and particularly our Bloggers and folks in the upper mid-west and eastern seaboard areas; not looking forward to what may unfold tomorrow and hoping that local authorities (work, schools, government) are watching the weather closely to allow folks to leave for home early if the winds pick-up so much that driving is dangerous............At least most of the kids are out for the summer.  See Yall in the am.






According to my Weatherbug app, the nearest lighting strike to me is 334 miles away. Quite remarkable for June 21st living in Central Fl.
Update on the California Drought - June 21, 2016
From the Pacific Institute's California Drought Response Team.
"Potentially one of the worst wildfire seasons ahead : the National Interagency Fire Center predicts that the ongoing drought will significantly increase fire potential, especially in Southern California. (...)
California will likely experience a more active fire season this year. Cal Fire has estimated that drought and bark beetle infestation have caused the death of over 29 million trees, an increase from 3.3 million trees in 2014 (water-starved trees are especially vulnerable to drought beetle infestation). These dead and dying trees increase the risk of fire across the state. (...)
Drought Monitor :
The severity of drought conditions has remained relatively the same over the past two weeks. (...)"

Personally, what also worries me about this map is the situation for the Northwest predicted to deteriorate this year. After the 2015 season, this could be a record/near record year as well for fire activity there.
Quoting 64. Bucsboltsfan:



We have to have a system first. Mark Sudduth of hurricane track did an excellent video on the next ten days and the possibility of a system in the NW Caribbean.


I totally agree
Quoting 64. Bucsboltsfan:



We have to have a system first. Mark Sudduth of hurricane track did an excellent video on the next ten days and the possibility of a system in the NW Caribbean.


What video (if you don't mind me asking)?
72. vis0
could HHJOE (S. Ca.) get any of exDanielle's moisture due to the HIGHs return flow and a rouque jet streak?
Quoting 71. tigerdeF:



What video (if you don't mind me asking)?


Go to Twitter. Search Mark Sudduth (@hurricanetrack). He posted an excellent video yesterday. Very interesting look into the future.
Quoting 68. Bucsboltsfan:

According to my Weatherbug app, the nearest lighting strike to me is 334 miles away. Quite remarkable for June 21st living in Central Fl.


Yeah, that dry front came through and temporarily put an end to the rainy season for us. We should see our normal pattern try to set back up over the next couple days.

But I don't know what's going on with wunderground. It gives Fort Myers a 100% chance of rain for today and there's no rain anywhere?
Then it gives a 90% for tomorrow, which is crazy.

This is the forecast for Page Field in Fort Myers from wunderground. Definitely a major screw up.

Tuesday
06/21
88 | 72 F
Tuesday 100 % Precip. / 0 in
Thunderstorms likely early. Lows overnight in the low 70s.

Tuesday Night 100 % Precip. / 1.41 in
Locally heavy thunderstorms during the evening will give way to mainly clear skies after midnight. Low 72F. Winds E at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 100%. 1 to 2 inches of rain expected.

Wednesday
06/22
90 | 74 F
Wednesday 90 % Precip. / 0.41 in
Partly cloudy in the morning. Thunderstorms developing later in the day. High near 90F. Winds E at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 90%.
Quoting 74. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, that dry front came through temporarily put an end to the rainy season for us. We should see our normal pattern try to set back up over the next couple days.

But I don't know what's going on with wunderground. It gives Fort Myers a 100% chance of rain for today and there's no rain anywhere?
Then it gives a 90% for tomorrow, which is crazy.

This is the forecast for Page Field in Fort Myers from wunderground. Definitely a major screw up.

Tuesday
06/21
88 | 72 °F
Tuesday 100 % Precip. / 0 in
Thunderstorms likely early. Lows overnight in the low 70s.

Tuesday Night 100 % Precip. / 1.41 in
Locally heavy thunderstorms during the evening will give way to mainly clear skies after midnight. Low 72F. Winds E at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 100%. 1 to 2 inches of rain expected.

Wednesday
06/22
90 | 74 °F
Wednesday 90 % Precip. / 0.41 in
Partly cloudy in the morning. Thunderstorms developing later in the day. High near 90F. Winds E at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 90%.


Maybe we should get a Naples report from Nea. Looks like a system glitch.
Quoting 62. Cyclone2016:

I think tomorrow may have a derecho, but I dont think it will surpass June 29th, 2012.

I remember it well because I was at my local amusement park, Kings Island, when it struck us. It was BLAZING hot, 103 degrees... Got a warning from my mom that 80 mph winds were heading our way, we took cover in the Arcade and it hit, the winds were fairly bad, lightning and rain was intense, we got out and lights were blown out, trees fell on the entrance to the White Water Canyon River Rapid ride and other areas. The park did not open the rides back up for about 3 hours.

Warren County and Hamilton County(Cincinnati area) didnt get the most intense portion(that was Columbus) but we got hit nonetheless.


Summer of 2012 is still the hottest one I have experienced.

We are near the border of Enhanced Risk, we are in slight risk but I am prepared for the worst.


Thinking this summer might give that one a run for its money. We're already about a degree warmer this June than June 2012, and the last ten days of the month are typically the hottest (could tack on another degree or so to that figure). Granted it was July 2012 that was the hottest, but all indications are for a scorching July this year.

India's Drought Is Wreaking Havoc on Its Reservoirs
, TWC - June 17.
"India's 91 major reservoirs were a combined 16 percent of capacity as of June 9, down 79 percent from the 10-year average, NASA said. Last week, officials said the city of Mumbai only had about 25 days' worth of water left in its reservoirs, the Times of India reported, further highlighting how dire this situation has become - even in the big cities."
Yippee!~

I happen to be visiting the Mayo clinic is SW Minnesota this week... we we're going to fly out tomorrow, but we are delayed, so, being in the west end of the 'moderate' red zone, maybe I will get to see some interesting weather!~

Hmm. It seems that you simply CAN'T rent a hot air balloon on short notice here~
Wind shear maps say that this area should be 50kt of shear so unless that is miss reading this area is doing quite well for being under 50kt of shear some in we need too watch


Quoting 62. Cyclone2016:

I think tomorrow may have a derecho, but I dont think it will surpass June 29th, 2012.

I remember it well because I was at my local amusement park, Kings Island, when it struck us. It was BLAZING hot, 103 degrees... Got a warning from my mom that 80 mph winds were heading our way, we took cover in the Arcade and it hit, the winds were fairly bad, lightning and rain was intense, we got out and lights were blown out, trees fell on the entrance to the White Water Canyon River Rapid ride and other areas. The park did not open the rides back up for about 3 hours.

Warren County and Hamilton County(Cincinnati area) didnt get the most intense portion(that was Columbus) but we got hit nonetheless.


Summer of 2012 is still the hottest one I have experienced.

We are near the border of Enhanced Risk, we are in slight risk but I am prepared for the worst.


I was vacationing in the Bahamas for the DC derecho. I was thinking an MCC might come over the ridge Friday 6/29 or Saturday 6/30 and give DC some severe weather but was not expecting a derecho. My sister living in Richmond came down the next day and told me of an intense line that went through their area and with thunderstorms making it that far south I just knew DC had been hammered and a few keystrokes on the Web I was trying to stay off of for vacation revealed the carnage in DC.

2012 had the worst 10 day heat wave I've ever experienced in this area late June-early July but the hottest summer was 2010, not 2012 for us because of a cool period in mid June 2012 and significant cooling in late July and August.
Summers 2010-2012 were outlier warm for us, warmer by far than any other before or since.

The 2012 Derecho smashed through Athens Ohio where my wife's sister's farm is and took out a lot of trees and did some roof damage. Just five hours later it nailed DC.
We have heard from a number of people here (and from elsewhere) that there has "never been a La Nina event when there is a positive PDO".

So, I took the monthly values for the ONI data from the NWS Climate Prediction Center and used their definition of a La Nina/El Nino events (5 consecutive periods with an index value less than/greater than 0.5 respectively) and the PDO Index from JISAO, and plotted the two.

In short, the statement that "la Nina's cannot form during positive PDO events" is not true. La Nina's can form during positive PDO events, and have so in the past.

During the last "warm period" of the PDO, there was one La Nina event (weak as it was) where the PDO was positive the entire event (1995-1996) and two instances where the La Nina event was accompanied by positive PDO values during the event (1984-1985; 1988-1989). Circled in the plot below (orange=PDO; blue=La Nina; red = El Nino; grey=neutral):



Interestingly enough, two of the years, 1985 and 1988, considered to be analogs for the hurricane season based upon the NMME SSTA Summer forecast at Levi Cowen's Tropical Tidbits site , are the same (bolded below). The 1988 year is the one most strongly correlated with the forecast.

Analogs Based on NMME SSTA Summer Forecast; Top 5 Analogs - Year: ACC
1988: 0.41
1973: 0.24
1970: 0.23
2007: 0.19
1985: 0.19
Quoting 32. dmbsmokey:

Hi all. First time commenting on this blog. I am a weather geek from Chicago. Today is truly the calm before the storm: 78 degrees and clear blue sky. Tomorrow we are under a moderate threat for severe storms with possible supercells, hail and tornadoes! First time I'll be experiencing this, as I understand this is quite a rare occurrence. Be safe everyone.


The threats in that area are not rare. Expect two or three comparable ones each year.
Quoting 65. DeepSeaRising:



That sounds quite plausible. Picture becoming clearer, looks like we may be in the area where these more discreet supercells begin to congeal into the MCS derecho. SPC unlikely to upgrade to high risk but for our neck of the woods and places south and east, this is as about as bad a forecast as we get. Patrap has a point, at least most everyone has some form of technology to inform them of what's coming. Alerting the public has really come a long way.
What was the last time we had a moderate risk in Southern Wisconsin? I think it was at least 2013,if not 2008 with what I call the "Local Outbreak" with the tornadoes by Pardeeville and South Randolph.
Really nice weather in north central Florida for late June. Low last night was in the low 60s and it barely made 90 today with lower than normal humidity!

Although we could use more rain as I am in a dry spot that got missed by most of the rain this month.
Basin Scale HWRF - East Pacific


DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN WI...NRN IL...NRN IND...SRN
LWR MI...AND NWRN OH...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
FAR WRN IA TO NW OH...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH RISK FROM
THE UPPER MS VALLEY SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK FROM
THE UPPER MS VALLEY SEWD INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...A FEW TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON WEDNESDAY. A SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WIND THREAT SHOULD ALSO PERSIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND INTO WESTERN OHIO.

...SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPTIC-SCALE FEATURES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO STRONGLY INFLUENCE THE FORECAST TOMORROW ARE WELL-DEFINED ALREADY TODAY WITH RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A DEEPENING LOW OVER SE MT...LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALING A BELT OF STRONG WLY/NWLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN THIRD OF THE CONUS...AND RECENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING A WELL-DEFINED...COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE NRN PLAINS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE SHORTWAVE WILL THEN CREST THE UPPER RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE SRN THIRD OF CONUS...TURNING SLIGHTLY SEWD AND PROGRESSING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TOMORROW NIGHT. SE MT SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...BEFORE EJECTING TONIGHT AND TRACKING SEWD ALONG A STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT. BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...THIS SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY BE CENTERED OVER THE MID MO VALLEY WITH ONGOING TSTMS PERSISTING WITH IN THE WAA REGIME ALONG AND N OF THE WARM FRONT /FROM SRN MN SEWD THROUGH CNTRL IL/. SURFACE LOW WILL THEN CONTINUE EWD ACROSS IA WHILE THE ELEVATED TSTMS ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER ACT TO REINFORCE THE WARM FRONT. SURFACE-BASED INITIATION APPEARS LIKELY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR ERN IA...NRN IL AND SRN WI WITH QUICK UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A STRONG MCS PROBABLE /DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL BELOW/.

...SRN MN SEWD THROUGH CNTRL IL FROM EARLY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...
TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD FROM SRN MN SEWD THROUGH CNTRL IL WITHIN THE WAA REGIME ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE AMPLE SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. HOWEVER...THIS REGION WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE BETTER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LIMITING INSTABILITY. EVEN WITH THIS LIMITED INSTABILITY...THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN TSTMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT MORNING AS THEY BECOME DISPLACED FROM BETTER INSTABILITY.

...UPPER MS VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...

AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT /MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS/ WILL QUICKLY WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE 90S BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL SWLY WINDS WILL HELP ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH THIS WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTING STRONG INSTABILITY BY THE MID-AFTERNOON. WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE ALSO BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION WITH ASSOCIATED CAPPING LIKELY PREVENTING CONVECTIVE-INITIATION UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON. DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW/ ARE EXPECTED TO OVERCOME THIS CONVECTIVE-INHIBITION BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY ONCE THIS OCCURS. MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL BE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE. GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE BACKED SURFACE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

THIS INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY GROW UPSCALE WITH THE STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE MCS CAPABLE OF A LARGE AREA OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CORRIDOR MOST LIKELY TO SEE THESE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM SRN WI/NRN IL SEWD ACROSS NRN IND...SRN LOWER MI...AND NW OH. SOME TRIMMING OF THE NE EXTENT OF THE MDT RISK AREA FROM THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK WAS DONE TO ACCOUNT FOR ANTICIPATED SELY MCS MOTION SUGGESTED BY THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE.

..MOSIER.. 06/21/2016


WPC Surface @ 7PM CDT Wednesday.


18Z NAM Surface theta e-Valid 4PM CDT.

Theta e used here as a proxy for the initial location of the warm front extending southeast from the surface low over north central Iowa and the cold front stretching to the southwest across the southeastern corner of Nebraska. Triple point at the intersection. These initial storms will probably take a pretty strong turn to the right of the mean flow (gust front/cold pool interactions) and stay on the boundary for a while.
hmmmmmm
Triple point at the intersection. These initial storms will probably take a pretty strong turn to the right of the mean flow (gust front/cold pool interactions) and stay on the boundary for a while.


Ooofh'



Quoting 77. 999Ai2016:


India's Drought Is Wreaking Havoc on Its Reservoirs
, TWC - June 17.
"India's 91 major reservoirs were a combined 16 percent of capacity as of June 9, down 79 percent from the 10-year average, NASA said. Last week, officials said the city of Mumbai only had about 25 days' worth of water left in its reservoirs, the Times of India reported, further highlighting how dire this situation has become - even in the big cities."


The Increasingly Dangerous Hothouse — Local Reports Show It Felt Like 170 F (77 C) in India on June 13th, 2016

Link
Quoting 91. Patrap:

Triple point at the intersection. These initial storms will probably take a pretty strong turn to the right of the mean flow (gust front/cold pool interactions) and stay on the boundary for a while.


Ooofh'






If you're in or near the risk areas, now is the time to make the plan. It starts with:

Where do me and mine NOT want to be when the weather turns bad?
not showing anything?
Quoting 86. stormpetrol:


Quoting 93. RobertWC:



The Increasingly Dangerous Hothouse Local Reports Show It Felt Like 170 F (77 C) in India on June 13th, 2016

Link


Never seen a wet bulb temperature higher than the air temperature. At 100% humidity, the wet bulb and dry bulb temp is the same.

Maybe he is writing about the wet bulb globe temperature.

For an unconfirmed report out of Bhubaneswar indicates that temperatures on June 13th hit 103.5 F (39.7 C) even as relative humidity readings were at 87 percent. That's a wet bulb reading of 41 C.

This guy got his science wrong somewhere.
how do you find the video?
Quoting 70. wunderkidcayman:



I totally agree
Hot and humid (87/74) in H-town just over 2 hours before USA vs. Argentina, one of the most important soccer matches in our country. I know there are a lot of Texans here--anybody going to cheer on the red, white, and blue?
100. beell
Quoting 98. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Hot and humid (87/74) in H-town just over 2 hours before USA vs. Argentina, one of the most important soccer matches in our country. I know there are a lot of Texans here--anybody going to cheer on the red, white, and blue?


The US has a soccer team?
'Coral zombies' may spell doom for coral reefs around world

Scientists have known for a while that coral reefs around the world are dying, and in a worst-case scenario they were counting on large, healthy-looking corals to repopulate.

But a new study presented at the 13th International Coral Reef Symposium in Honolulu today shows that these seemingly healthy colonies are "Coral Zombies" with no reproductive ability, which makes them useless in a recovery effort.

"It's pretty discouraging," said University of Central Florida biologist John E. Fauth, one of the researchers who sampled 34 sites across the Caribbean for the study. "This is not good news."



Read more at: Link
Quoting 100. beell:



The US has a soccer team?

Go to your room and think about what you just said.
Quoting 101. RobertWC:

'Coral zombies' may spell doom for coral reefs around world

Scientists have known for a while that coral reefs around the world are dying, and in a worst-case scenario they were counting on large, healthy-looking corals to repopulate.

But a new study presented at the 13th International Coral Reef Symposium in Honolulu today shows that these seemingly healthy colonies are "Coral Zombies" with no reproductive ability, which makes them useless in a recovery effort.

"It's pretty discouraging," said University of Central Florida biologist John E. Fauth, one of the researchers who sampled 34 sites across the Caribbean for the study. "This is not good news."



Read more at: Link
Thats terrible news.



relaxing reflective tune for first full day of summer
Quoting 95. 19N81W:

not showing anything?

Nothing
Quoting 96. beell:



Never seen a wet bulb temperature higher than the air temperature. At 100% humidity, the wet bulb and dry bulb temp is the same.

Maybe he is writing about the wet bulb globe temperature.

For an unconfirmed report out of Bhubaneswar indicates that temperatures on June 13th hit 103.5 F (39.7 C) even as relative humidity readings were at 87 percent. That's a wet bulb reading of 41 C.

This guy got his science wrong somewhere.

A sustained wet-bulb temperature exceeding 35 °C (95 °F) is likely to be fatal even to fit and healthy people, unclothed in the shade next to a fan; at this temperature our bodies switch from shedding heat to the environment, to gaining heat from it.[7] Thus 35 °C is the threshold beyond which the body is no longer able to adequately cool itself. A study by NOAA from 2013 concluded that heat stress will reduce labor capacity considerably under current emissions scenarios.[8]

A 2010 study by Purdue University concluded that under a worst case scenario for global warming with temperatures 12C higher than 2007, the wet-bulb temperature limit for humans could be exceeded around much of the world in future centuries.[9] A 2015 study concluded that parts of the globe could become uninhabitable.[10] An example of the threshold at which the human body is no longer able to cool itself and begins to overheat is a humidity level of 50% and a high heat of 46 °C (115 °F), as this would indicate a wet-bulb temperature of 35 °C (95 °F).[11]
Heat waves with high humidity

The 2015 Indian heat wave saw wet-bulb temperatures in Andhra Pradesh reach 30 °C (86 °F).
A similar wet-bulb temperature was reached during the 1995 Chicago heat wave.[12]
A heat wave in Iraq in August 2015 saw temperatures of 48.6 °C (119.5 °F) and a dew point of 29.5 °C (85.1 °F) in Bandar-e Mahshahr, Iran and Samawah.[13] This implied a wet-bulb temperature of 38.4 °C (101.1 °F).[14] The government "urged residents to stay out of the sun and drink plenty of water".

Link

Quoting 90. bigwes6844:

hmmmmmm


Pressures in the MDR also drop significantly. Maybe, just maybe...we could see a spin up out there in July.
108. beell
Quoting 106. RobertWC:


A sustained wet-bulb temperature exceeding 35 °C (95 °F) is likely to be fatal even to fit and healthy people, unclothed in the shade next to a fan; at this temperature our bodies switch from shedding heat to the environment, to gaining heat from it.[7] Thus 35 °C is the threshold beyond which the body is no longer able to adequately cool itself. A study by NOAA from 2013 concluded that heat stress will reduce labor capacity considerably under current emissions scenarios.[8]

A 2010 study by Purdue University concluded that under a worst case scenario for global warming with temperatures 12C higher than 2007, the wet-bulb temperature limit for humans could be exceeded around much of the world in future centuries.[9] A 2015 study concluded that parts of the globe could become uninhabitable.[10] An example of the threshold at which the human body is no longer able to cool itself and begins to overheat is a humidity level of 50% and a high heat of 46 °C (115 °F), as this would indicate a wet-bulb temperature of 35 °C (95 °F).[11]
Heat waves with high humidity

The 2015 Indian heat wave saw wet-bulb temperatures in Andhra Pradesh reach 30 °C (86 °F).
A similar wet-bulb temperature was reached during the 1995 Chicago heat wave.[12]
A heat wave in Iraq in August 2015 saw temperatures of 48.6 °C (119.5 °F) and a dew point of 29.5 °C (85.1 °F) in Bandar-e Mahshahr, Iran and Samawah.[13] This implied a wet-bulb temperature of 38.4 °C (101.1 °F).[14] The government "urged residents to stay out of the sun and drink plenty of water".

Link




That's all well and good, Bob. The water shortage is much more distressing news. The other bit from the Scribbler guy is pure crap.
GFS now dropping the NW carribbbean system. Back to the drawing board again.
Current GFS model for July 4th

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gf s/2016062118/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_46.png
It has been feast or famine here in Central Texas. We haven't gotten any significant rain in the last 3-4 Weeks.
Quoting 109. wunderweatherman123:

GFS now dropping the NW carribbbean system. Back to the drawing board again.

The disturbance is still there. Not sure why it doesn't intensify the system in the BOC this run, as the environment looks favorable. Probably long range shenanigans. The overarching theme doesn't change either way--a strong CCKW is coming and the basin needs to be watched for formation.
The GFS model is indicating that some sort of Tropical system will make landfall near east Texas in about a month. (I don't have a picture because I couldn't find one.) Link
114. beell
Something still there in the model.
500 mb vort @ 147 hrs

Quoting 111. hotroddan:

It has been feast or famine here in Central Texas. We haven't gotten any significant rain in the last 3-4 Weeks.
Right here with you. Little shower this afternoon here.
1 model run and we're "back to the drawing board". The board was never there to begin with if it's not within 144-168hrs.
Quoting 116. Drakoen:

1 model run and we're "back to the drawing board". The board was never there to begin with if it's not within 144-168hrs.

model got overexcited. The MJO signal will help enhance some kind of development but there are no gurantees of development. Just something to watch in the next 10 days.
Quoting 116. Drakoen:

1 model run and we're "back to the drawing board". The board was never there to begin with if it's not within 144-168hrs.
I would say the upcoming pattern supports something but whether a actual storm will form is not at all a guarantee.
Quoting 116. Drakoen:

1 model run and we're "back to the drawing board". The board was never there to begin with if it's not within 144-168hrs.
LOL!
more 144 really
Quoting 117. wunderweatherman123:


model got overexcited. The MJO signal will help enhance some kind of development but there are no gurantees of development. Just something to watch in the next 10 days.


MJO won't help anything in the Caribbean in a few days. It won't be here, it'll be back in India. Now, a Kelvin wave might be helping things out . . .

Quoting 95. 19N81W:

not showing anything?



was showing a circulation forming N of Panama/Costa Rica, but it has since been removed
Quoting 108. beell:



That's all well and good, Bob. The water shortage is much more distressing news. The other bit from the Scribbler guy is pure crap.


The only way you get a wet bulb temperature higher than the air temperature is if you plunge the thermometer in boiling water first . . . don't cha know? ;)
Quoting 100. beell:



The US has a soccer team?


Spoken like a Texan . . . its that game played with a round ball, only one person on each team can use their hands.
You need to also remember that this is only one GFS projection out of the many we have seen so far. For all we know, the same system could be shown again in the next GFS update. 6 hours is nothing when we are talking about events 144 hours or more away.

Quoting 118. washingtonian115:

I would say the upcoming pattern supports something but whether a actual storm will form is not at all a guarantee.


Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 3h3 hours ago
These oceanic instability easterly waves causing havoc on daily ENSO 3.4 ind. Cold phase now aligning with TOA bouys

Adam Turchioe ‏@wxturch 11h
Just incredible how quickly renewed trades have cooled #Nino34 SSTs.
mod risk may become high


Quoting 96. beell:



Never seen a wet bulb temperature higher than the air temperature. At 100% humidity, the wet bulb and dry bulb temp is the same.

Maybe he is writing about the wet bulb globe temperature.

For an unconfirmed report out of Bhubaneswar indicates that temperatures on June 13th hit 103.5 F (39.7 C) even as relative humidity readings were at 87 percent. That's a wet bulb reading of 41 C.

This guy got his science wrong somewhere.


I think he may have meant the Heat Index (feels-like) temp. The value given would fit that index.
(actually it may be a little low).
Things should remain quiet for the next 4 to 6 weeks
Although, if this is the 11am temperature, its giving the SWUS a run for its money . . .

Name :Sriganganagar
Time & Date :21/06/2016 11.30 am
Air Temp :39.8 C
RH: 43 %
Dew pt. Temp :25.0
Heat Index :49
Comfort Index :Highly Uncomfortable and Hot
Advisory : Risk
(sees discussion about "wet bulb")

(sees beell)

(decides not to comment)
aqua, Steel (OKla for still) a wet bulb outranks a dim bulb. Right?
Quoting 131. Meisterright:

Things should remain quiet for the next 4 to 6 weeks


Based on what?
his opinion
what do u see
139. beell
Quoting 130. daddyjames:



I think he may have meant the Heat Index (feels-like) temp. The value given would fit that index.
(actually it may be a little low).


Whatever. Junk science/Climate Porn
:)
Quoting 127. washingtonian115:

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 3h3 hours ago
These oceanic instability easterly waves causing havoc on daily ENSO 3.4 ind. Cold phase now aligning with TOA bouys

Adam Turchioe ‏@wxturch 11h
Just incredible how quickly renewed trades have cooled #Nino34 SSTs.


I think that deserves a visual aid:

Quoting 138. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
what do u see
I see the possibility of a system in the SE GOM, or the NW carribean, on July 3rd.

Or at the least, I see us fussing and fretting.

Hi Feet of Bare!! :)
Quoting 141. daddyjames:



I think that deserves a visual aid:




Kinda throws a wet blanket on our good friend STS.
You all need to read this.

Link

Some of the longtimers here will remember SouthALWX; he posted here like 6 or 7 years ago before finally moving on. He now has a degree in meteorology, and we talk a lot on Facebook. He's a good friend of mine. He blogs here now. So go ahead and read that entry about ghost storms (it's the very first one; you can't miss it). Even I learned a few things!
Quoting 144. Bucsboltsfan:



Kinda throws a wet blanket on our good friend STS.


Interestingly enough - to continue on the previous post (#81) I made about +PDO and La Nina - I now understand (at least maybe in part) why all the "experts" were making vastly different forecasts for hurricane activity this year . . .
For example
TSR (May) : 17 9 4
CSU (June): 14 6 3

A compilation of all hurricane seasons that had a negative ONI and a +PDO (during the La Nina/La Nina-like neutral event) gives:

Year TD TS H MH
1970 22 10 5 2
1978 24 12 5 2
1980 15 11 9 2
1981 23 12 7 3
1983 7 4 3 1
1984 18 13 5 1
1985 14 11 7 3
1988 19 12 5 3
1995 21 19 11 5
1996 13 13 9 6
AvgA 17.6 11.7 6.6 2.8
Norm NA 11.7 6.3 2.4
Range 24-7 19-4 11-3 6-1


The average is, well, average. But anything can happen this season (as the range demonstrates). The Atlantic could be busy, could be dead, or (most likely) will be average.
Two AOI tonight as we move on to the next named storm. One area is an enhanced area of vorticity by the southern Bahamas at the surface, just north of the northern coastline of Cuba where thunderstorm activity has increased since this afternoon. Wind shear is light to moderate, and not enough to preclude development. The second area of interest is located north of Panama where a circular vorticity lobe at the surface exists and there is some rotation evident in the lower level cloud field in this area. However, convection is diurnal right now which means there is no developing storm yet, however as pressures fall a low could develop along this wave and we could be dealing with a cyclone in the BOC by this weekend.
Quoting 100. beell:



The US has a soccer team?

Do you live under a rock or something?
Quoting 142. aquak9:

I see the possibility of a system in the SE GOM, or the NW carribean, on July 3rd.

Or at the least, I see us fussing and fretting.

Hi Feet of Bare!! :)
Not seeing nothing, I.
Feet of Bare watching.
;)
Not seeing nothing.

double negative- it's something!!
Quoting 149. NCHurricaneTracker69:

Do you live under a rock or something?
The US has rocks?
Quoting 146. daddyjames:



Interestingly enough - to continue on the previous post (#81) I made about +PDO and La Nina - I now understand (at least maybe in part) why all the "experts" were making vastly different forecasts for hurricane activity this year . . .
For example
TSR (May) : 17 9 4
CSU (June): 14 6 3

A compilation of all hurricane seasons that had a negative ONI and a +PDO (during the La Nina/La Nina-like neutral event) gives:

Year TD TS H MH
1970 22 10 5 2
1978 24 12 5 2
1980 15 11 9 2
1981 23 12 7 3
1983 7 4 3 1
1984 18 13 5 1
1985 14 11 7 3
1988 19 12 5 3
1995 21 19 11 5
1996 13 13 9 6
AvgA 17.6 11.7 6.6 2.8
Norm NA 11.7 6.3 2.4
Range 24-7 19-4 11-3 6-1


The average is, well, average. But anything can happen this season (as the range demonstrates). The Atlantic could be busy, could be dead, or (most likely) will be average.

Most of those years are -AMO except the bottom two. There is still a debate over whether we are currently in a +AMO or -AMO (although the current setup looks more positive). Overall I feel like 1995 is a decent analog. I do think the Atlantic will see an above average number of named storms this year but the number of hurricanes/majors will likely be closer to the normal.
If I were the NHC right now I would issue a low chance at development for the Caribbean Sea disturbance. 12z EURO treks it into the BOC.
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 5h
Why has the US seen so few hurricanes over past decade? Anomalous troughing along East Coast has helped recurve TCs.
La Nina could allow a severe hurricane to make landfall along the US coastline this year. Close to home development along the US East Coast and the Bahamas and Caribbean Sea as well as the Gulf of Mexico all favor development close to home with SSTs likely lower in the MDR and wind shear low this could spell trouble for the US coastline this year.
Quoting 153. HurricaneFan:


Most of those years are -AMO except the bottom two. There is still a debate over whether we are currently in a +AMO or -AMO (although the current setup looks more positive). Overall I feel like 1995 is a decent analog. I do think the Atlantic will see an above average number of named storms this year but the number of hurricanes/majors will likely be closer to the normal.


LOL - I was thinking the exact opposite about 1995. 1995 saw a lot of activity in the MDR.
The anomalously high High is cooling down the surface SSTs in the MDR. That combined with waves being maintained a bit south by the High may suppress activity in the MDR this year (opposite that of 1995).
If that happens, this season would be much like those in the 1980's with a number of storms forming closer to the US.
Quoting 152. aquak9:

The US has rocks?


only in my head . . .
Quoting 127. washingtonian115:

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 3h3 hours ago
These oceanic instability easterly waves causing havoc on daily ENSO 3.4 ind. Cold phase now aligning with TOA bouys

Adam Turchioe ‏@wxturch 11h
Just incredible how quickly renewed trades have cooled #Nino34 SSTs.
Quoting 141. daddyjames:



I think that deserves a visual aid:


Quoting 144. Bucsboltsfan:



Kinda throws a wet blanket on our good friend STS.


Wow yeah Scott is not gonna be happy at all lol
Quoting 152. aquak9:

The US has rocks?
Not quite rock
Quoting 157. daddyjames:



LOL - I was thinking the exact opposite about 1995. 1995 saw a lot of activity in the MDR.
The anomalously high High is cooling down the surface SSTs in the MDR. That combined with waves being maintained a bit south by the High may suppress activity in the MDR this year (opposite that of 1995).
If that happens, this season would be much like those in the 1980's with a number of storms forming closer to the US.

What the Atlantic needs is a good long-lasting -NAO. The NAO is expected to remain positive over the next few weeks, which should cool the MDR down a bit. Maybe the NAO will turn negative in August to warm up the MDR nicely, we will have to wait and see.
Quoting 141. daddyjames:



I think that deserves a visual aid:



So that warming was just short lived after all. La Niña not far off
Quoting 161. HurricaneFan:


What the Atlantic needs is a good long-lasting -NAO. The NAO is expected to remain positive over the next few weeks, which should cool the MDR down a bit. Maybe the NAO will turn negative in August to warm up the MDR nicely, we will have to wait and see.
Nice cool water will kill the hurricane season.
Quoting 162. MrTornadochase:


So that warming was just short lived after all. La Nia not far off


Yes, STS jumped the gun. If you look at historical El Nino/La Nina transitions, he was a week or two early before saying something and the long-term forecast is for a weak La Nina (favored) over a neutral-La Nina- like event.

Also, i just never understood where the warm water was supposed to come from given the vertical profile of cold seawater in the Pacific.
Quoting 161. HurricaneFan:


What the Atlantic needs is a good long-lasting -NAO. The NAO is expected to remain positive over the next few weeks, which should cool the MDR down a bit. Maybe the NAO will turn negative in August to warm up the MDR nicely, we will have to wait and see.


Its possible, but seems as if the long range forecasts have been underestimating the NAO. Possible though.



Quoting 160. Barefootontherocks:

Not quite rock


but it has a lot of soul.
Quoting 154. TheDawnAwakening:

If I were the NHC right now I would issue a low chance at development for the Caribbean Sea disturbance. 12z EURO treks it into the BOC.

another Caribbean to BOC system..... I can't remember how many times this has happened in the past 9 years where it's been blazing hot here on the Northern Gulf Coast and we need the rain and all the pattern supports is a nice wet TC to steer completely away from our area while we're stuck under oppressive, boring high pressure. sigh.....
Quoting 160. Barefootontherocks:

Not quite rock


NICE
Quoting 168. BayFog:


Does a lightning bolt over the ocean reach to the seabottom, or does it dissipate in the water itself?
A lot of the energy disperses on the surface of the sea, some goes deeper in the water.
Quoting 154. TheDawnAwakening:

If I were the NHC right now I would issue a low chance at development for the Caribbean Sea disturbance. 12z EURO treks it into the BOC.


Well here you go you asked for is



Courtesy of NHC
Quoting 171. BaltimoreBrian:

A lot of the energy disperses on the surface of the sea, some goes deeper in the water.


Which is why lightning is so dangerous to swimmers. It's mostly radiated at the surface [Link].
Quoting 145. KoritheMan:

You all need to read this.

Link

Some of the longtimers here will remember SouthALWX; he posted here like 6 or 7 years ago before finally moving on. He now has a degree in meteorology, and we talk a lot on Facebook. He's a good friend of mine. He blogs here now. So go ahead and read that entry about ghost storms (it's the very first one; you can't miss it). Even I learned a few things!
Thanks sensei. I sure learned something new today too.
Quoting 172. wunderkidcayman:



Well here you go you asked for is



Courtesy of NHC
Well you see, the tropics is playing April Fools dude.
Quoting 173. win1gamegiantsplease:

Which is why lightning is so dangerous to swimmers. It's mostly radiated at the surface [Link].
Thanks for the link. I was aware of lightning's affinity for the surface, surfing and sailing, but didn't look up a link.
Quoting 100. beell:



The US has a soccer team?
Debatable

On the other hand... In a couple pitching duels, the Oklahoma State Cowboys have defeated UC Santa Barbara and Arizona in the College World Series. 1-0 score both games. MOnday's game was delayed for a few hours due to lightning strikes. NCAA has strict rules about lightning near a sports venue. Go Pokes. Bring it home!
Quoting 175. HurricaneAndre:

Well you see, the tropics is playing April Fools dude.


Likewise the GFS, which had been for several weeks projecting a TC along the gulf coast. (From Pensacola to Port Arthur) . The OOZ run now features merely a coastal low going into deep south Texas. Observe:
Quoting 172. wunderkidcayman:



Well here you go you asked for is



Courtesy of NHC


Well, thanks....I guess :/






The derecho a couple years ago made my cousins respect weather. The winds ripped shingles off of their home, and a lightning strike turned a tree into a piece of charcoal that took the fire department 3 tries over 2 days to put out.
Well, another round of night boomers has awakened me.... though so far the power has not been impacted... hopefully I'll get to enjoy the sweet rain now...

Back later.....
Quoting 152. aquak9:

The US has rocks?
Thought it was rockets y'all have ...
Lightning in Indian states 'kills 79'
BBC, 1 hour ago

Wildfires raging near LA are ‘0% contained’ say authorities
Guardian, Wednesday 22 June 2016 08.39 BST

At least six dead as rains batter quake-hit southwestern Japan
by Reuters, Wednesday, 22 June 2016 02:26 GMT
Hundreds of thousands of people have been advised to evacuate a wide swathe of Kyushu island. ...

Colombia coffee-growers worry over looming La Nina rains
INTERVIEW- by Reuters, Tuesday, 21 June 2016 21:10 GMT
Colombian coffee growers still dealing with the consequences of the El Nino drought are now bracing for heavy La Nina rains which could hurt the country's harvest even more, the head of the coffee federation said on Tuesday. ...

Kenya: Hundreds of Thousands Face Hunger in Western Kenya
DW, June, 21.
Drought in Kenya's West Pokot County has left hundreds of thousands of people on the brink of starvation. The Kenyan government has yet to intervene, forcing residents to move to other counties in search of food. ...

Best wishes in respect to the looming severe weather in the US!


Since this afternoon seems primed for this –

Summer Derechos Have a Favored Corridor, New Study Says

Progressive derechos are those thunderstorm clusters typically forced in the warmer months of the year not by a strong cold front, per se, but rather near a stationary or warm front separating hot, humid air to the south from less hot, still humid air to the north.

These clusters ingest dry air, helping to produce a collection of damaging downburst winds which race forward over a large area.


Link
Quoting 134. BaltimoreBrian:

Caribbean Sea acts like a whistle and can be 'heard' from space

Crazy stuff... It breathes...

"A strange sound discovered by researchers emanating from the Caribbean Sea. This has been pitched up several octaves so it can be heard by human ears."
"The 120 day period means this whistle plays a note of A-flat, although it is many octaves below the audible range."
186. beell
A couple of favorable factors that may limit the scope and duration of a high impact wind event.

1. Mid level shortwave energy appears to get sheared out as it tracks east.
2. Increasingly veered low-level inflow with eastward extent. Convection should initially propagate towards the southeast at a pretty good clip before losing steam. IL & IN are still in for it.

This is an amateur opinion about something I don't totally understand. Trust your safety to the folks at the SPC and NWS!
6Z GFS still has a Caribbean LOW going into TX/LA 1st week of July..........
Good Morning.  All Conus eyes on the upper mid-west today:

Quoting 187. LargoFl:

6Z GFS still has a Caribbean LOW going into TX/LA 1st week of July..........

eventually it will drop it. both euro and CMC show the kelvin wave producing an EPAC hurricane which makes more sense. Maybe something can start going in the western carribbean but now that the GFS has been slamming the system into the yucatan, it seems more likely the gulf coast will just see some heavy rain in the next week to 10 days.
at the end of the whistle is a great surf break on the east coast of Panama
And here is the current look and relative position of the jet: very ominous looking this morning as the system moves into the Great Lakes region:


And the current doppler and storm reports for the last 3 hours; a few reports earlier this morning with wind gusts in the 50-60 mph range:

Central Great Lakes sector loop
last3hours Filtered Reports Graphic

Quoting 188. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning.  All Conus eyes on the upper mid-west today:



Now I am in Moderate Risk..... uh oh.....

Sure jumped from near enhanced risk to Moderate!
As I mentioned yesterday, If conditions really deteriorate around the Great Lakes region, and particularly in the metro areas like downtown Chicago, hopefully local officials might encourage folks to go home early if it looks like the pm rush hour might be met with dangerous wind gusts and/or possible tornadoes.............A good day to stay off the road in those parts if you can.
Quoting 145. KoritheMan:

You all need to read this.

Link

Some of the longtimers here will remember SouthALWX; he posted here like 6 or 7 years ago before finally moving on. He now has a degree in meteorology, and we talk a lot on Facebook. He's a good friend of mine. He blogs here now. So go ahead and read that entry about ghost storms (it's the very first one; you can't miss it). Even I learned a few things!


Thanks for the link, it was certainly a worthwhile read. I wish the formatting was better, because it was awfully distracting, but still a well written entry. I started to read about derechos but then realized I had work to do. :D
198. beell
11Z (6AM CDT) Surface boundaries and surface low. As noted by the SPC and Mr. Henson, the rain-reinforced warm front (black dashed line) may be a little on the slow side to begin a northward retreat. May shift the tornado threat over eastern IA/western IL a bit to the south.

199. beell
Quoting 149. NCHurricaneTracker69:


Do you live under a rock or something?


Did you check the US highlights reel from the game? Let me know if you find one!
(just jokin'-have a good 'un)
Quoting 182. BahaHurican:

Thought it was rockets y'all have ...


*Rockettes
Portions of the Chicago NWS discussion from this am; as noted by Beell, so far the threat line is to their South so the issue is whether it will slowly lift to the North or stay to their South:

National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
655 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

Regarding the near term severe threat, the warm front is still
positioned to our south west. Severe thunderstorms are along the
boundary and have exhibited mid level rotation in an environment
with strong deep layer shear. Marginal severe hail and a damaging
wind threat exists with these storms. These storms being
supercellular have also exhibited some left turning away from the
mean wind, and following the left moving bunkers supercell storm
motion. These storms should still continue to ride the boundary
and stay southwest but may get close to Livingston and Ford
counties as the instability and shear axis attempts to move
northeast, so will bear watching. 0-3km storm relative helicity is
also maximized in this area and thus a non- zero tornado threat.Through tonight...

Thermodynamic and kinematic profiles from upstream raobs and based on
forecast soundings have changed very little with regards to the
threats that have been outlined to this point, indicating that the
region is primed for a significant severe weather event, most
notably but certainly not limited to a widespread wind damage
event, but details about the location of the stronger convection
still remain a bit uncertain and will likely continue to be so
until we see how the morning convection evolves and its associated
impact on the low level warm front.
Mental note: don't worry about the stronger GFS on the 6z run, guys. What you actually wanna watch for is the trend in the model for a system that gets stuck over Central America longer, and is thus slower to develop; that's my assessment from looking at the model. I don't really think it's pushed the timeframe back any over the last few days. Convective competition from the eastern Pacific could also play a role, with several smaller-scale lows embedded within a larger-scale low-level westerly flow/trough in the model. I'd still place the odds of a cyclone forming in the next 10 days in this region at 10%, which is pretty darn high for such a long-range prediction when we're dealing with a non-cyclone at present. Definitely worth watching. There's also a clear northward path for anything to head toward the US Gulf Coast, but also a clear path toward Mexico if it gets trapped too far south. Interesting times.

Remember... watch for trends!
Quoting 201. weathermanwannabe:

Portions of the Chicago NWS discussion from this am; as noted by Beell, so far the threat line is to their South so the issue is whether it will slowly lift to the North or stay to their South:

National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
655 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

Regarding the near term severe threat, the warm front is still
positioned to our south west. Severe thunderstorms are along the
boundary and have exhibited mid level rotation in an environment
with strong deep layer shear. Marginal severe hail and a damaging
wind threat exists with these storms. These storms being
supercellular have also exhibited some left turning away from the
mean wind, and following the left moving bunkers supercell storm
motion. These storms should still continue to ride the boundary
and stay southwest but may get close to Livingston and Ford
counties as the instability and shear axis attempts to move
northeast, so will bear watching. 0-3km storm relative helicity is
also maximized in this area and thus a non- zero tornado threat.Through tonight...

Thermodynamic and kinematic profiles from upstream raobs and based on
forecast soundings have changed very little with regards to the
threats that have been outlined to this point, indicating that the
region is primed for a significant severe weather event, most
notably but certainly not limited to a widespread wind damage
event, but details about the location of the stronger convection
still remain a bit uncertain and will likely continue to be so
until we see how the morning convection evolves and its associated
impact on the low level warm front.


I wonder if the ongoing convection will limit the severe threat somewhat? That sometimes happens with higher-end events. Should be interesting to watch.
Quoting 199. beell:



Did you check the US highlights reel from the game? Let me know if you find one!
(just jokin'-have a good 'un)


Despite the US soccer team's loss to the Argentina who is the #1 ranked team in the World at the moment they still are guaranteed to finish no worse than 4th in the Copa Americana tournament. They still have a game Saturday and if they win that they'll finish 3rd so yes they have a soccer team better than most in the Americas!
Quoting 202. KoritheMan:

Mental note: don't worry about the stronger GFS on the 6z run, guys. What you actually wanna watch for is the trend in the model for a system that gets stuck over Central America longer, and is thus slower to develop. That's my assessment from looking at the model; I don't really think it's pushed the timeframe back any over the last few days. Convective competition from the eastern Pacific could also play a role, with several smaller-scale lows embedded within a larger-scale low-level westerly flow/trough in the model. I'd still place the odds of a cyclone forming in the next 10 days in this region at 10%, which is pretty darn high for such a long-range prediction when we're dealing with a non-cyclone at present. Definitely worth watching. There's also a clear northward path for anything to head toward the US Gulf Coast, but also a clear path toward Mexico if it gets trapped too far south. Interesting times.

Remember... watch for trends!


Actually the one model run that shows it hitting my area is the most trustworthy one. Other models are obviously having initialization problems.
Coral reefs facing a hot time and increased bleaching, especially along US coasts
Hotter-than-normal ocean temperatures continuing for third consecutive year


Date:
June 20, 2016
Source:
NOAA Headquarters
Summary:
A new NOAA outlook shows that many coral reefs across around the world will likely be exposed to higher-than-normal sea temperatures for an unprecedented third year in a row, leading to increased bleaching - and with no signs of stopping. While the bleaching event is global, it will hit the US hard.

Link
Quoting 206. VAbeachhurricanes:



Actually the one model run that shows it hitting my area is the most trustworthy one. Other models are obviously having initialization problems.


Hey, I doubt anyone here wants a chase more than I do. If I can forgo my bias in favor of science, so can they. :P
Quoting 145. KoritheMan:

You all need to read this.

Link

Some of the longtimers here will remember SouthALWX; he posted here like 6 or 7 years ago before finally moving on. He now has a degree in meteorology, and we talk a lot on Facebook. He's a good friend of mine. He blogs here now. So go ahead and read that entry about ghost storms (it's the very first one; you can't miss it). Even I learned a few things!


Very informative reading!

It is amazing how technology and models have improved forecasting tropical weather and hurricanes.

And ... it is also amazing whenever an "invest" or tropical wave causes so much excitement when it is forecasted by models to strengthen and make a "landfall," more than 10 days out.

Have to admit, the models posted here always gets my interest as well !

Until a tropical wave or disturbance actually develops, showing signs of strengthening, and becoming a potential threat, that is when we should really be wary.

The Gulf of Mexico has already produced Colin and Danielle. Several of the models picked up on these tropical storms, several days in advance.

Depending on the conditions for the rest of the hurricane season, it might be possible to have another system form in the same general region.

Stay tuned!

210. beell
Quoting 204. KoritheMan:



I wonder if the ongoing convection will limit the severe threat somewhat? That sometimes happens with higher-end events. Should be interesting to watch.


No. It may shift the centerline of the severe threat one way or the other-but along and south of the boundary in the warm sector will be active.
Quoting 208. KoritheMan:



Hey, I doubt anyone here wants a chase more than I do. If I can forgo my bias in favor of science, so can they. :P


I think this year should be the year, just looking at trends I'd be very surprised if a Cat 2 or 3 doesn't hit somewhere in the southeast this year.
Quoting 210. beell:



No. It may shift the centerline of the severe threat one way or the other-but along and south of the boundary will be active.


That's what they said in the discussion yesterday I believe, the first round of convection to move through would leave a cool pool that will determine where the most severe set up will occur. There's plenty of sun time left from now until initiation to mix the atmosphere and destabilize it.
Quoting 204. KoritheMan:



I wonder if the ongoing convection will limit the severe threat somewhat? That sometimes happens with higher-end events. Should be interesting to watch.


Yup; a broad rain shield tends to cool things down a bit and lower some of the instability. Have to see where those dry pockets set up later today relative to the strongest convective areas:





SPC from 15 minutes ago:

...UPPER MS VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY AND CNTRL
APPALACHIANS...

ONGOING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT SEWD THIS
MORNING...ALLOWING THE CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED WARM FRONT TO BEGIN
TO MOVE NEWD IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SWLY LLJ. BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON
THIS FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM A SFC LOW OVER ERN IA THROUGH EXTREME
NRN IL INTO NCNTRL IND THEN SEWD THROUGH OH AND WV. RICHER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH NEAR 70F DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT NEWD THROUGH THE WARM
SECTOR BENEATH EWD EXPANDING EML PLUME /SAMPLED BY OMAHA 12Z RAOB/
RESULTING IN A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY /2000-3000
J/KG MLCAPE/ FROM THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. A
CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY BE BREACHED INITIALLY NEAR TRIPLE
POINT OVER NERN IA NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE SFC LOW WITH STORMS
SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOPING ESEWD IN VICINITY OF AND NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. A 60+ KT MID-LEVEL JET ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH
WILL RESULT IN STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
AS THE INITIAL MODE. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE INITIAL
STORMS ALONG WITH A THREAT OF A FEW TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NERN IA...EXTREME SRN WI AND NRN IL WHERE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL
BE MAXIMIZED IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...STORMS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO A FAST MOVING...FORWARD PROPAGATING
MCS/DERECHO WITH PRIMARY THREAT TRANSITIONING TO DAMAGING WIND AS
STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES AREA.
PARAMETER SPACE APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A SWATH OF SIGNIFICANT
DAMAGING WIND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING HOURS. THE
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE CNTRL
APPALACHIAN AREA TONIGHT BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS LATE.
215. elioe
Quoting 202. KoritheMan:




This far out, I would put as much emphasis on the operational run as on any ensemble member. So I'd say:

Formation likely.
Place of formation: anywhere in Gulf of Mexico, Bay of Campeche or NW Caribbean.
Date of formation: between June 29 - July 4.
Date of landfall: July 4 at earliest.
Place of landfall: anywhere between Tampico and Apalachicola.
Peak winds: 75 mph, give or take 40 mph...
Cosmopolitan snow algae accelerate melting of Arctic glaciers

The role of red pigmented snow algae in melting Arctic glaciers has been strongly underestimated, suggests a study to be published in Nature Communications on June 22. White areas covered with snow and ice reflect sunlight; the effect is called albedo. It has been known for quite some time that red pigmented snow algae blooming on icy surfaces darken the surface which in turn leads to less albedo and a higher uptake of heat. The new study by Stefanie Lutz, postdoc at the German Research Centre for Geosciences GFZ and at the University of Leeds, shows a 13 per cent reduction of the albedo over the course of one melting season caused by red-pigmented snow algal blooms.

Read more at: Link
Right now it's south of us but this warning continues all day and into the evening:

DuPage Severe Watches & Warnings NOAA Weather Radio
Watches & Warnings
Flash Flood Watch
Issued: 3:07 AM CDT Jun. 22, 2016 – National Weather Service


... Flash Flood Watch now in effect from 10 am CDT this morning
through late tonight...

The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for

* portions of Illinois and Northwest Indiana... including the
following areas... in Illinois... Boone... Cook... De Kalb...
dupage... Grundy... Kane... Kankakee... Kendall... Lake IL...
McHenry... will and Winnebago. In Northwest Indiana... lake in
and Porter.

* From 10 am CDT this morning through late tonight.

* Thunderstorms producing very heavy rainfall... are expected
Wednesday morning... with additional storms likely Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Given the very moist air mass... these
storms will be capable of producing rainfall rates up to 2
inches per hour and lead to localized flash flooding.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.



Lightning strikes kill at least 90 in India

New Delhi (CNN)Lightning strikes killed at least 90 people Tuesday in four Indian states as monsoon rains swept across much of the country.
"Lightning strikes are common during monsoons, but there have been more strikes than usual this year," said Vyas Ji, principal secretary in Bihar, where a record 57 people died Tuesday from the strikes -- the most of any state in the country.


Link
Quoting 215. elioe:



This far out, I would put as much emphasis on the operational run as on any ensemble member. So I'd say:

Formation likely.
Place of formation: anywhere in Gulf of Mexico, Bay of Campeche or NW Caribbean.
Date of formation: between June 29 - July 4.
Date of landfall: July 4 at earliest.
Place of landfall: anywhere between Tampico and Apalachicola.
Peak winds: 75 mph, give or take 40 mph...


Ensemble mean usually beats deterministic or any member after 10 days.
Quoting 210. beell:



No. It may shift the centerline of the severe threat one way or the other-but along and south of the boundary in the warm sector will be active.


It was just a hypothesis. Haven't really poured over the data with this particular event as I do with most other ones.
Quoting 211. VAbeachhurricanes:



I think this year should be the year, just looking at trends I'd be very surprised if a Cat 2 or 3 doesn't hit somewhere in the southeast this year.


Unless a surprise trough sets up in August/September like in 2010 (the last big Nina that started out similar), I agree.
Quoting 215. elioe:



This far out, I would put as much emphasis on the operational run as on any ensemble member. So I'd say:

Formation likely.
Place of formation: anywhere in Gulf of Mexico, Bay of Campeche or NW Caribbean.
Date of formation: between June 29 - July 4.
Date of landfall: July 4 at earliest.
Place of landfall: anywhere between Tampico and Apalachicola.
Peak winds: 75 mph, give or take 40 mph...


Covering your bases, eh? :D
April, May and June set rainfall records for Houston

If you've spent any time in Houston and the surrounding area this spring and early summer, there's a good chance you've had the opportunity to canoe down a street or were in fear of your car getting flooded.

That's because southeast Texas has been getting pounded with nonstop rain. Houston got so much rain, in fact, that April 14 to June 12 were the 60 wettest days on record for the Bayou City.

According to Alaskan climatologist Brian Brettschneider, Houston received 33.7 inches of rain in the past 60 days.

The highest previous 60-day total was in 1990, when 30 inches of rainfall was recorded.


Link
Quoting 124. daddyjames:



The only way you get a wet bulb temperature higher than the air temperature is if you plunge the thermometer in boiling water first . . . don't cha know? ;)


You can also get it if the air supersaturates which is can happen in very clean particle free air. But yeah, not common in real life outside at the surface except in bitter cold air next to a water source where it does happen.
At least 22 killed, thousands flee in China floods

BEIJING (China Daily/Asia News Network) - Torrential rain across nine provinces and Chongqing municipality in central and southern areas of China has left 22 people dead, 15 missing and forced tens of thousands from their homes, the authorities said.

The State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters said nearly 268,000 people have been relocated and 324,000ha of crops have been damaged, leading to direct economic losses of 6 billion yuan (S$1.22 billion).


Link
226. elioe
Quoting 219. georgevandenberghe:



Ensemble mean usually beats deterministic or any member after 10 days.


In the case of Danielle, majority of ensemble members were in the Bay of Campeche, with few members showing a stronger system going to USA, located far away from the rest. Those members dragged the average of system locations into a far too northeast position. If the concepts of median or mode could be somehow extended to non-discrete fields of possibilities, they would have fared the best.

Quoting 222. KoritheMan:



Covering your bases, eh? :D


Actually, I don't understand English sayings. :( Please explain.
Theme song for today's severe weather

Captain Borg
Quoting 226. elioe:



In the case of Danielle, majority of ensemble members were in the Bay of Campeche, with few members showing a stronger system going to USA, located far away from the rest. Those members dragged the average of system locations into a far too northeast position. If the concepts of median or mode could be somehow extended to non-discrete fields of possibilities, they would have fared the best.



Actually, I don't understand English sayings. :( Please explain.


Covering your bases means you're highlighting all possibilities; that way if something goes wrong you can't be blamed.

Obviously, I got that sarcasm. This is my way of playing along with it.
Exciting day of weather for the Midwest.
Quoting 187. LargoFl:

6Z GFS still has a Caribbean LOW going into TX/LA 1st week of July..........
This year I'm a blobs and lows tracker.Do you see any other low or blob in the tropics?
Quoting 180. Astrometeor:







The derecho a couple years ago made my cousins respect weather. The winds ripped shingles off of their home, and a lightning strike turned a tree into a piece of charcoal that took the fire department 3 tries over 2 days to put out.
Hopefully Cleveland championship parade is done before this nasty weather picks up.
Quoting 230. hurricanefishfla:

This year I'm a blobs and lows tracker.Do you see any other low or blob in the tropics?
no not so far
Quoting 232. LargoFl:

no not so far
I''ll be right here waiting for you.
overcast and a passing shower in Cayman....the bulk of the weather is well to the south of us and already west....another miss...everything well south this year
236. elioe
Quoting 228. KoritheMan:



Let's try the opposite approach. Now everyone can blame me :)
Quoting 230. hurricanefishfla:

This year I'm a blobs and lows tracker.Do you see any other low or blob in the tropics?
It is the GFS!lol
Dewpoints in the 30's, can't remember exactly the last time we were that dry in June. Usually in the 60's this time of year.
Here is the current temperature forecast/demarcation for 5:00 pm today for Conus and along the mid-west corridor (North and South of the frontal boundry below the Great Lakes:





And for 8:00 PM:


The Cape Verde Waves won't really become likely to start spinning up and having a chance for development until July 10th and afterwards, the MJO will move across the Atlantic in the early July period, and won't get fully towards the Eastern Atlantic and West Africa until more the middle of the month.
Australian woman wakes to 5.2 meter python surprise (with video) The word cyclone comes from the Greek word for coils of a snake. So it's on topic. Pleasant dreams tonight, everyone!

Quoting 240. Grothar:






Nahhhhhhhhhh
Quoting 234. 19N81W:

overcast and a passing shower in Cayman....the bulk of the weather is well to the south of us and already west....another miss...everything well south this year


Lol again u must be living in the worst part of Cayman for rain

For me it been overcast and plenty of rain for most of the morning so far
Either that or you are just the unluckiest person
Right now, the SAL is very intensively high right now, but that is all of the norm for this time of year, and with all the sinking air currently out there with no aid of the MJO right now, nothing can get going immediately once we enter July, it will take a couple of days to a week for July to settle itself before the waves can find a favorable window to start get going.
Quoting 247. BaltimoreBrian:

Australian woman wakes to 5.2 meter python surprise (with video) The word cyclone comes from the Greek word for coils of a snake. So it's on topic. Pleasant dreams tonight, everyone!




I have to give them credit for not overreacting to the situation - here the headline would have read:

Woman guns down monster snake that viciously attacked her while she slept! Monster reptile terrorizes neighborhood!
The Safety dance is not requried at this time.

Much mo modeling needs to find consensus...a word not used enough when posting dem frames o pain.

Quoting 251. daddyjames:



I have tto give them credit for not overreacting to the situation - here the headline would have read:

Woman guns down monster snake that viciously attacked her while she slept! Monster reptile terrorizes neighborhood!

Followed by a sequel to 'Anaconda' broadcast on FoxNews as a documentary.
For those with TV access during the day, where is Dr. Forbes currently in term of his Torcon indexes for this afternoon?........Thanks in advance.
Quoting 246. Climate175:

The Cape Verde Waves won't really become likely to start spinning up and having a chance for development until July 10th and afterwards, the MJO will move across the Atlantic in the early July period, and won't get fully towards the Eastern Atlantic and West Africa until more the middle of the month.


Don't always pay attention to models, the recent analysis states that the MJO most likely will dissipate over the North pacific and then reform again in the Indian Ocean. A Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave is projected to enhance activity in the GOM.

Madden-Julian Oscillation: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions (opens pdf)
Update prepared by:
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP
20 June 2016

Overview
Several indicators, including the RMM-based MJO Index and the evolution of the upper-level velocity potential pattern, depict a coherent MJO event, with the enhanced phase over the eastern Indian Ocean and western Maritime Continent. The MJO signal is less apparent in the OLR field.
Most dynamical models suggest propagation of the signal to the Maritime Continent during Week-1, with rapid weakening of the signal during Week-2. Some of the anticipated weakening may be due to model depictions of Kelvin Wave activity and a lower frequency feature favoring suppressed convection over the western North Pacific.
Extratropical impacts of the MJO on the U.S. are likely to be limited. While an MJO event over the Maritime Continent is usually consistent with suppressed tropical cyclone activity over the Western Hemisphere, Kelvin Wave activity may contribute to tropical cyclone formation near the Bay of Campeche during Week-2.
Quoting 254. weathermanwannabe:

For those with TV access during the day, where is Dr. Forbes currently in term of his Torcon indexes for this afternoon?........Thanks in advance.


It's on his FB page [Link]
Quoting 254. weathermanwannabe:

For those with TV access during the day, where is Dr. Forbes currently in term of his Torcon indexes for this afternoon?........Thanks in advance.


Check out his Facebook page.

259. Ed22
Quoting 245. weathermanwannabe:

And for 8:00 PM:



Just Maybe...
There is a reason also the GFS was showing the a wave coming off West Africa in last week's runs, it originally though the MJO would move through quicker, but now realizing the progress was going to be slower than initially thought, it has dropped with the wave with the sinking air having a longer presence than originally thought, now with the time-frame for the MJO being July 10th to the middle of the month, the GFS should be showing waves developing soon in the next 1-2 weeks the longer range, but it all depends if the MJO's predicted arrival will fulfill.
But here you go:



Edit: oops wrong one, fixed
262. Ed22
Quoting 243. bigwes6844:


The tropical wave to the southwest of Jamaica should be "Monitored" for tropical development...
Quoting 256. daddyjames:



Don't always pay attention to models, the recent analysis states that the MJO most likely will dissipate over the North pacific and then reform again in the Indian Ocean. A Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave is projected to enhance activity in the GOM.

Madden-Julian Oscillation: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions (opens pdf)
Update prepared by:
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP
20 June 2016

Overview
Several indicators, including the RMM-based MJO Index and the evolution of the upper-level velocity potential pattern, depict a coherent MJO event, with the enhanced phase over the eastern Indian Ocean and western Maritime Continent. The MJO signal is less apparent in the OLR field.
Most dynamical models suggest propagation of the signal to the Maritime Continent during Week-1, with rapid weakening of the signal during Week-2. Some of the anticipated weakening may be due to model depictions of Kelvin Wave activity and a lower frequency feature favoring suppressed convection over the western North Pacific.
Extratropical impacts of the MJO on the U.S. are likely to be limited. While an MJO event over the Maritime Continent is usually consistent with suppressed tropical cyclone activity over the Western Hemisphere, Kelvin Wave activity may contribute to tropical cyclone formation near the Bay of Campeche during Week-2.
The thing about the MJO is it is so fascinating and perplexing at the same time, it moves around the world, and provides convective uprising to one part of the world, and then soon to the next. It is hard to genuinely know it's true aspirations, but that is the fun in how the weather works, and with it constantly moving and changing with all the variables, it's all a patience and see what will transpire with it in the future, and see how that affects the development of storms and how they will move with the air currents in the atmosphere with the High Pressure System.
Quoting 263. Climate175:

The thing about the MJO is so fascinating and perplexing at the same time, it moves around the world, and provides convective uprising to one part of the world, and then soon to the next. It is hard to genuinely know it's true aspirations, but that is the fun in how the weather works, and with it constantly moving and changing with all the variables, it's all a patience and see what will transpire with it in the future, and see how that affects the development of storms and how they will move with the air currents in the atmosphere with the High Pressure System.


You remember the Micheal Ventrice post about one of the the strongest CCKW ever observed? That is the one that is supposed to be affecting the EPAC/GOM.
Quoting 240. Grothar:


yeah gro, GFS has been hinting that as well.


IAZ000-ILZ000-INZ000-MIZ000-OHZ000-WIZ000-221800-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0824 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the lower Great Lakes
and the Ohio Valley region this afternoon and tonight...

* LOCATIONS...
Northern and central Indiana
Western Ohio
Northern Illinois
Southwestern Lower Michigan
Southern Wisconsin
Northeastern Iowa

* HAZARDS...
Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force
A few intense tornadoes
Isolated large hail up to baseball size

* SUMMARY...
Widespread damaging wind gusts with some greater than 70 miles
per hour along with tornadoes and isolated large hail are
expected this afternoon and evening from northeast Iowa into
extreme southern Wisconsin, northern Illinois, southwest Lower
Michigan, northern to central Indiana and parts of western Ohio.
A wind damage threat may affect the upper Ohio Valley late this
evening into the central Appalachian mountains during the
overnight period.

Preparedness actions...

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch
means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms
over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is
issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

&&

..Cohen/Guyer.. 06/22/2016

$$
Quoting 264. daddyjames:



You remember the Micheal Ventrice post about one of the the strongest CCKW ever observed? That is the one that is supposed to be affecting the EPAC/GOM.
Yes, that is why we are now watching the chance for a potential system in the Western Caribbean/Gulf next week, which ensembles seem to having a strong signal, even though the operational is doing the flip flops.
i am in no hurry. usually c/verde season does not begin in earnest until about aug 15 average plenty of time for the mdr to warm up.
Quoting 269. islander101010:

i am in no hurry. usually c/verde season does not begin in earnest until about aug 15 average plenty of time for the mdr to warm up.
July is when it very very slowly starts to get going, but once we get to that August and September time, the NHC will start have to adding the "Another wave has come off" to every wave because of how fast they be rolling.
The oranges and reds are stretching now to other parts of the caribbean
Capital Weather Gang ‏@capitalweather 26m26 minutes ago
Tornado in Howard County carved 12.75 mile path, was up to 500 yds wide. "caused nearly continuous tree damage":
Quoting 268. Climate175:

Yes, that is why we are now watching the chance for a potential system in the Western Caribbean/Gulf next week, which ensembles seem to having a strong signal, even though the operational is doing the flip flops.


Flip-floppng only in deciding which basin may take advantage. 00Z ECMWF has high pressure dominating, and something spinning up in the EPAC. GFS has twin systems developing, the GOM storm and a closed low in the EPAC just underneath it. Right now the BOC/OM storm is dominating.
Quoting 273. washingtonian115:

Capital Weather Gang ‏@capitalweather 26m26 minutes ago
Tornado in Howard County carved 12.75 mile path, was up to 500 yds wide. "caused nearly continuous tree damage":
Yea, that tornado was pretty close to me, the heavy rain was tremendously a block out, you could not see anything, they said it was a rain wrapped tornado too.
Quoting 273. washingtonian115:

Capital Weather Gang ‏@capitalweather 26m26 minutes ago
Tornado in Howard County carved 12.75 mile path, was up to 500 yds wide. "caused nearly continuous tree damage":


Only tree damage, I hope? No ill-will on trees, mind you.
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 3m
30-day-averaged Southern Oscillation Index at its highest value since June 2014 - another sign of #ElNino's demise.
279. IDTH
Quoting 271. washingtonian115:

The oranges and reds are stretching now to other parts of the caribbean


Those waters in the Bahamas are very similar heat content wise to when Joaquin was stalling out over them.
Quoting 276. daddyjames:



Only tree damage, I hope? No ill-will on trees, mind you.


http://www.fox5dc.com/news/164128645-story
Satellite imagery shows the tropical wave nearing Honduras is showing signs of development, circulation is circular in nature and should begin to develop as it moves northwestward towards the Yucatan Peninsula, but development shouldn't happen until in the GOM.
A Moderate Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is Forecast Today and/or Tonight

Widespread damaging wind gusts with some greater than 70 miles per hour along with tornadoes and isolated large hail are expected this afternoon and evening from northeast Iowa into extreme southern Wisconsin, northern Illinois, southwest Lower Michigan, northern to central Indiana and parts of western Ohio. A wind damage threat may affect the upper Ohio Valley late this evening into the central Appalachian mountains during the overnight period.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 271. washingtonian115:

The oranges and reds are stretching now to other parts of the caribbean


The water is over 100 deg F near Cuba? How warm does it usually get? Living in the Pacific NW 80 deg water would seem very warm.
12z GFS has a hurricane moving ashore the Louisiana coastline. Shh, don't tell Kori.
There is a r-evolving tropical system in Mediterranean. See sat24.com maps.
Sitting in Heart of moderate watched area according to SPC. First round came through around 0800, rained here... thunder south in enhanced area. Next round inbound from NW. Looks like more rain and nothing severe according to Pat's post above. Late Evening/night round is the one to watch. Will warm front advance too far N/NE? Will rains have cooled my area too much?

I wonder what the models from 300 hours ago said? heavy sarcasm flag