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Gulf of Mexico's 94L Close to Tropical Depression Status

By: Jeff Masters 4:14 PM GMT on June 19, 2016

A tropical disturbance over the southern Gulf of Mexico (Invest 94L) has grown more organized since Saturday, and appears likely to develop into a tropical depression on Sunday or Monday as the storm heads west-northwest at 10 mph. Satellite loops late Sunday morning showed the disturbance had acquired a well-developed surface circulation, but 94L's heavy thunderstorms were not well organized and were relatively sparse, as seen on Mexican radar out of Sabancuy. Development was being arrested by the presence of high wind shear of 20 knots and a large area of dry air to the west, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the southern Gulf of Mexico are very warm, about 29 - 29.5°C (84 - 85°F), which will help development. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate 94L on Sunday afternoon to determine if a tropical depression has formed.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 94L over the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Predicted total rainfall from 94L from the 00Z (8 pm EDT) Saturday June 18, 2016 run of the HWRF model. The model predicted 94L would develop into Tropical Storm Danielle with top winds of 40 - 45 mph and bring widespread rains of 4 - 8" to the coast of Mexico between Veracruz and Tampico, with a few isolated areas getting more than 8". Image credit: NOAA/NCEP.

Forecast for 94L
Steering currents favor a west-northwest motion for 94L across the Bay of Campeche, with landfall occurring between Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico on Monday afternoon or evening. In this region, 3 - 6" of rain are likely Sunday through Tuesday--with higher rainfall amounts of 4 - 8" with isolated 8 - 12" amounts if 94L ends up developing into a tropical storm. The 8 am EDT Sunday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, by Sunday afternoon, giving 94L increased chances of development The Sunday morning operational runs of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the European, GFS and UKMET models, all supported development of 94L into a tropical depression; more than 80% of the 70 forecasts from the GFS and European model ensembles showed 94L developing into a tropical depression by Monday. In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 70%. If 94L becomes a tropical storm, it would be named Danielle. I don't see heavy rains from 94L reaching South Texas.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 498. James1981cane:

Clearly we have danielle based on the satellite presentation


no upgrade at 4AM you cant go by satellite presentation and say we have a named storm dos not work like that when storms are closer too home they go bye what recon has and its been in the storm
will i give TD 4 tell 10AM to be upgraded if it dos not get upgraded by 10AM TD 4 will be are 1st TD to not get a named in in 2016 hurricane season
Quoting 499. nrtiwlnvragn:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016
0900 UTC MON JUN 20 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

\


Well it will change soon trust me thats a tropical storm
SFMR was greater than Flight Level:

Raw Recon Data
( * ) Denotes suspect data
Time: 07:58:00Z
Coordinates: 19.150N 94.233W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.2 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,602 m
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1014.5 mb (29.96 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 133° at 30 kts (From the SE at 34.5 mph)
Air Temp: 15.1°C (59.2°F)
Dew Pt: 5.6°C (42.1°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 35 kts (40.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 44 kts (50.6 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 7 mm/hr (0.28 in/hr)

Plane had just flown out of high rain rate area:

Raw Recon Data
( * ) Denotes suspect data
Time: 07:57:30Z
Coordinates: 19.117N 94.217W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.6 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,595 m
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1014.7 mb (29.97 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 151° at 26 kts (From the SSE at 29.9 mph)
Air Temp: 13.8°C* (56.8°F*)
Dew Pt: 5.2°C* (41.4°F*)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 31 kts (35.7 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 47 kts* (54.1 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 42 mm/hr* (1.65 in/hr*)


... Suspect Data
Quoting 504. nrtiwlnvragn:

SFMR was greater than Flight Level:

Raw Recon Data
( * ) Denotes suspect data
Time: 07:58:00Z
Coordinates: 19.150N 94.233W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.2 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,602 m
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1014.5 mb (29.96 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 133° at 30 kts (From the SE at 34.5 mph)
Air Temp: 15.1°C (59.2°F)
Dew Pt: 5.6°C (42.1°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 35 kts (40.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 44 kts (50.6 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 7 mm/hr (0.28 in/hr)

Plane had just flown out of high rain rate area:

Raw Recon Data
( * ) Denotes suspect data
Time: 07:57:30Z
Coordinates: 19.117N 94.217W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.6 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,595 m
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1014.7 mb (29.97 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 151° at 26 kts (From the SSE at 29.9 mph)
Air Temp: 13.8°C* (56.8°F*)
Dew Pt: 5.2°C* (41.4°F*)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 31 kts (35.7 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 47 kts* (54.1 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 42 mm/hr* (1.65 in/hr*)


... Suspect Data



what dos that mean ?
look for yourself
Quoting 505. Tazmanian:




what dos that mean ?


In that type of situation the data is normally thrown out as it is suspect, which the NHC did by not upgrading to a TS.
It's always the case. The tropics should be called the crapics. Only see a good named storm now and then. With seeing names like PacMan, Sue, Bowser, Aiai, and other things in your particular speaking. Likelihood seeing names are in many situations are interesting. Like seeing nice shoes with tropics is just so amazing. Recon even picks out the winds.Allows us to see storms unexpected.Winds even go up 1000000mph in a rare case. Could only drop a bomb in every circumstance and lovely to see things in crapics with every demand you see.Tropics is like a jewel and we have to see precious things.People don't realize that this world is filled with many storms that we can enjoy and lovely to see that. It comes naturally really.You never intimidate the tropics.It's like a friend in every realm.Which we can keep at heart
Quoting 506. James1981cane:

look for yourself

Well, it does look sort of impressive, especially compared to the earlier storms like Bonnie and Colin; however, as the NHC said, the convection does not have much banding.
Quoting 510. Bobbyweather:


Well, it does look sort of impressive, especially compared to the earlier storms like Bonnie and Colin; however, as the NHC said, the convection does not have much banding.
You always got to give the weather a hand shake. The weather will help with that especially our bubbly handshakes.
i hop the recon stays out there for a few more hrs would love too see a few more center pass
recon found some TS force winds
085730 2023N 09516W 8421 01595 0130 +159 +055 126035 036 036 009 01
If I'm interpreting this correctly, the flight-level winds caught up with the SFMR winds.
Quoting 514. Bobbyweather:

085730 2023N 09516W 8421 01595 0130 +159 +055 126035 036 036 009 01
If I'm interpreting this correctly, the flight-level winds caught up with the SFMR winds.


TD 4 is a fighter and its not giveing up with out a fight it really wants too be come named
Quoting 514. Bobbyweather:

085730 2023N 09516W 8421 01595 0130 +159 +055 126035 036 036 009 01
If I'm interpreting this correctly, the flight-level winds caught up with the SFMR winds.
It's mother nature giving you a pat on the back.
Quoting 506. James1981cane:

look for yourself
Beautiful puppy. Seeing this reminds me of Ana in 2015.
A vortex message stating TD Four should be upgraded to TS Danielle:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 20th day of the month at 9:27Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5308
Tropical Depression: Four (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 20th day of the month at 9:09:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20°24'N 95°49'W (20.4N 95.8167W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,483m (4,865ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 39kts (~ 44.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the SE (137°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 126° at 36kts (From the SE at ~ 41.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles) to the E (93°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007mb (29.74 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,533m (5,030ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 3°C (37°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 36kts (~ 41.4mph) which was observed 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles) to the E (93°) from the flight level center at 8:57:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 25° at 7kts (From the NNE at 8mph)
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 18°C (64°F) which was observed 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the ESE (117°) from the flight level center
looks like we may have a upgrade comeing


Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 20th day of the month at 9:27Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5308
Tropical Depression: Four (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 09 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )
A. Time of Center Fix: 20th day of the month at 9:09:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20°24'N 95°49'W (20.4N 95.8167W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,483m (4,865ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 39kts (~ 44.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the SE (137°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 126° at 36kts (From the SE at ~ 41.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles) to the E (93°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007mb (29.74 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,533m (5,030ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 3°C (37°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 36kts (~ 41.4mph) which was observed 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles) to the E (93°) from the flight level center at 8:57:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 25° at 7kts (From the NNE at 8mph)
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 18°C (64°F) which was observed 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the ESE (117°) from the flight level center

Morning all. Working early this morning, so only glancing to see if that blossom of convection means we are likely to see Danielle this morning. So far it looks like no.

However, if that vortex message is right, we should see an upgrade by 8 a.m. EDT ... guess the TS warnings were appropriate ...

Later all. Have a good day.
Quoting 521. Meisterright:

no big deal just another baby system that will be inland soon and disapate... cant understand why all they fuss about this system its nothing
This will be a record for the earliest 4th named storm if it's named. That's the big deal.
Quoting 523. Meisterright:

I dont actually call them storms.. we get worse rain and wind here everyday with our daily t storms

Well, believe it or not, they are officially called tropical cyclones (and tropical storms if they reach winds of 39 mph). This is the very difference with your daily t-storms: it is of tropical origin.
Also, I suppose you always get 30 mph sustained winds with your daily storms? And 6~10 inches a day?
525. beell
For the first time in 94L/TD 04L's history, signs of nice, feathery cirrus outflow atop the sto system.


i think its safe too say that TD 4 is now a TS it has really got in its act to getter since 4am updated
Quoting 521. Meisterright:

no big deal just another baby system that will be inland soon and disapate... cant understand why all they fuss about this system its nothing


We uh.. like watching storms. We know it's a little weird.
i.agree.taz
Pretty system.
530. beell
Quoting 521. Meisterright:

no big deal just another baby system that will be inland soon and disapate... cant understand why all they fuss about this system its nothing


If T.D. #4 becomes Tropical Storm Danielle, it will be the Atlantic basin's earliest named "D" storm.

It is only June, and after several slow hurricane seasons, it is somewhat impressive that we may be on the verge of having our 4th named storm, so early ... in ANY hurricane season.
Good Morning

TD#4 doing well during this DMAX... so far busy 2016.
534. beell
As it has often been said, "You can't judge a book by its cover".
;-)



TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016
500 PM EDT FRI JUN 03 2016



TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016



TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016
400 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
TD 4 loves DMAX. Two days in a row where that's had a major impact. Recon just found their highest flight level winds (50kts) and lowest pressure (1007.5mb) yet. I'd expect an upgrade at 8AM, with landfall in several hours.
Quoting 535. MAweatherboy1:

TD 4 loves DMAX. Two days in a row where that's had a major impact. Recon just found their highest flight level winds (50kts) and lowest pressure (1007.5mb) yet. I'd expect an upgrade at 8AM, with landfall in several hours.


agreed TD 4 is gassing for air too be upgrade

Woah...looks like some 40kt surface winds without much rain contamination. This is clearly a TS and needs to be upgraded to one.
Quoting 538. HurricaneFan:


Woah...looks like some 40kt surface winds without much rain contamination. This is clearly a TS and needs to be upgraded to one.
Just drifting along the coast there ....
i say TD 4 is now the best looking storm of the season it has really got in its act to getter since the 4 AM update from the NHC
i say a upgrade is coming

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 20th day of the month at 11:01Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5308
Tropical Depression: Four (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 13 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )
A. Time of Center Fix: 20th day of the month at 10:41:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20°35'N 95°55'W (20.5833N 95.9167W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,479m (4,852ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 101 nautical miles (116 statute miles) to the SE (140°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 224° at 31kts (From the SW at ~ 35.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the SE/SSE (146°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1008mb (29.77 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,518m (4,980ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 52kts (~ 59.8mph) which was observed 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the N (2°) from the flight level center at 10:46:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 90° at 18kts (From the E at 21mph)
bad news heading into the heart of the season. Is the Red Cross a dysfunctional mess? read this and find out for yourself. https://www.propublica.org/article/how-the-red-cro ss-raised-half-a-billion-dollars-for-haiti-and-bui lt-6-homes
Quoting 540. Tazmanian:

i say TD 4 is now the best looking storm of the season it has really got in its act to getter since the 4 AM update from the NHC

:-) What about Alex ?
A majority the tropical cyclones that get into the extreme southern Bay of Campeche always seem to move generally westward, or west-southwestward, before making landfall.

It is the high pressures to the north that create this steering pattern, or is it just the "normal" trade winds that steer these systems more westward or west-southwestward?
Quoting 543. 999Ai2016:



:-) What about Alex ?


TD 4 is the 2nd best Alex is the 1st
TD 4 needs to be upgraded
I think movement change needs to be in order as well IMO
Quoting 545. Tazmanian:

TD 4 is the 2nd best Alex is the 1st

Granted, and after all TD4 can still (will ?) improve its looks, there's still quite a way to go before it makes landfall, if some intensification occurs in between.
Quoting 544. Stormwatch247:

A majority the tropical cyclones that get into the extreme southern Bay of Campeche always seem to move generally westward, or west-southwestward, before making landfall.

It is the high pressures to the north that create this steering pattern, or is it just the "normal" trade winds that steer these systems more westward or west-southwestward?


Well I don't know about that with this storm
Looking at this I'd say movement is NW and WNW at best


Quoting 532. Gearsts:

He's a troll.


Quoting 521. Meisterright:

no big deal just another baby system that will be inland soon and disapate... cant understand why all they fuss about this system its nothing



If T.D. #4 becomes Tropical Storm Danielle, it will be the Atlantic basin's earliest named "D" storm.

It is only June, and after several slow hurricane seasons, it is somewhat impressive that we may be on the verge of having our 4th named storm, so early ... in ANY hurricane season.


Before becoming a member, I have been a WU follower for years. Awesome site! A Gulf Coast hurricane survivor. Been there ,, done that! Camille, Frederic, Elena, Andrew, Erin, Opal, Georges, Ivan, Katrina, Dennis, and more.

550. ackee
THE AWARD for the best looking tropical storm / TD so far 2016 seasons goes to can I get a drum roll

TD # 4 I can't believe this not upgrade as yet I still think my humble view Colin look like cold front lol but was upgraded to a storm lol
I will do the honors for Washi.
wow talk about a closed call with TD 4 we now have DANIELLE
We officially have Tropical Storm Danielle now.
Quoting 546. wunderkidcayman:

TD 4 needs to be upgraded
I think movement change needs to be in order as well IMO
Thoughts on the long range system the gfs is showing?
We have Danielle, but only 40 mph.

7:00 AM CDT Mon Jun 20
Location: 20.6°N 96.0°W
Moving: WNW at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
Hello, Danielle! The EARLIEST named "D" tropical storm of the Atlantic Basin~!~~~!
now now have 4-1-0 for the season


why the E PAC has had 0-0-0 other then that TD 1 E they had and nothing since then
NHC upgraded TD to TS in 8:00 post.
Tropical Storm Danielle
4-1-0

Quoting 553. Climate175:


7:00 AM CDT Mon Jun 20
Location: 20.6°N 96.0°W
Moving: WNW at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph


About darn time although taking recon vortex data movement is NW-NNW
Everyone give a hand, we are witnessing history before our eyes. Earliest D storm ever in recorded history.
Quoting 561. CybrTeddy:

Tropical Storm Danielle
4-1-0





and the E PAC has 0
Quoting 563. Climate175:

Everyone give a hand, we are witnessing history before our eyes. Earliest D storm ever in recorded history.


I am glad to live through more and more history lol
Quoting 558. Stormwatch247:

Hello, Danielle! The EARLIEST named "D" tropical storm of the Atlantic Basin~!~~~!


Danielle is nice looking like a original storm would be like
OK when could we see the E storm
Quoting 554. Gearsts:

Thoughts on the long range system the gfs is showing?


Which board should I wax up? Oh...you mean on the system itself.... Well the MJO looks like it should be in full bloom in the region so watch out gulf!
Have a great Monday all!
569. beell
Quoting 565. James1981cane:



I am glad to live through more and more history lol


And just think...your whole future is in front of you!
the last time we had a E storm in july was 2005
The storm has started moving northwest it seems, do you think this is short term or long term?
TS Danielle

Too far out in time but GFS continues to mention a storm hitting the panhandle 1st week of july.
Quoting 564. Tazmanian:




and the E PAC has 0


The Eastern Pacific has until July 1st to produce a named storm or it'll be the latest "A" storm to develop in recorded history.
Quoting 554. Gearsts:

Thoughts on the long range system the gfs is showing?



I think it's certainly more than likely IMO next week conditions become more favoured

In terms of track I think further E no land interactions with Nic/Hon an earlier start with development and genesis start further E like Eastern SW Caribbean like near 77/78W then continues WNW turning NW-NNW by 79/80W and in through Yucatan channel or W tip of Cuba then to Florida

I'm thinking a mix between 00z GFS and 00z NAVGEM

Anyway I'm not certain about exact track yet so we shall wait until weekend and going into next week

And I think going forward from next week we could be seeing 2 or so storms as we get into the middle of July

Active times ahead people
576. ryang
Can't get too excited...
2012 was 4-1-0 by the end of June and not another storm formed until August.
Don't expect to see storms every week lol
Although that isn't out of the question.
Quoting 574. CybrTeddy:



The Eastern Pacific has until July 1st to produce a named storm or it'll be the latest "A" storm to develop in recorded history.


talk about a flip flop
Link
Okay here is my new blog post about danielle and the MJO puls next week
Quoting 577. JrWeathermanFL:

Can't get too excited...
2012 was 4-1-0 by the end of June and not another storm formed until August.
Don't expect to see storms every week lol
Although that isn't out of the question.
By the looks of the models, they seem to suggest that July won't be playing any games either.
What's the earliest E named Atlantic storm on record btw
Quoting 573. LargoFl:

Too far out in time but GFS continues to mention a storm hitting the panhandle 1st week of july.


Wouldn't listen to the GFS just saying especially in the long range
Quoting 581. wunderkidcayman:

What's the earliest E named Atlantic storm on record btw
Hurricane Emily: July 11th.
Quoting 581. wunderkidcayman:

What's the earliest E named Atlantic storm on record btw



EMILY in 2005
Btw in terms of TS Danielle I'm expecting a cone shift NW

GFS did well with Colin in the long range.
Quoting 582. James1981cane:



Wouldn't listen to the GFS just saying especially in the long range
this year is looking a lot like 2005 hurricane and i think we are ahead
Earliest F storm: Tropical Storm Franklin, July 18th, 2005.
Earliest G storm: Tropical Storm Gert: July 24th, 2005.
Quoting 586. hurricanewatcher61:

GFS did well with Colin in the long range.


No itt didn't
Quoting 583. Climate175:

Hurricane Emily: July 11th.
Quoting 584. James1981cane:




EMILY in 2005


Hmm we might break that record too

Wow talk about a difference hell haven't seen us breaking so many records this early in season for a good many years

I tell ya this year is gonna be one hell of a year if it keeps up the way it's going (I think it will keep up infact I think it's only gonna get much more active IMO)
591. ackee
I think those agent that predicted a near normal hurricane season could ended with egg on there face I just can't see us being 4 name storm now end up with average season
Quoting 587. Tazmanian:

this year is looking a lot like 2005 hurricane and i think we are ahead


Well a good few months before the season officially started I did say that it is a possibility that this year we could see an active season even an active season that could be as similar to 2005

Quoting 588. Climate175:

Earliest F storm: Tropical Storm Franklin, July 18th, 2005.
Earliest G storm: Tropical Storm Gert: July 24th, 2005.


We might even break them too
Quoting 579. James1981cane:

Link
Okay here is my new blog post about danielle and the MJO puls next week

I read your 2nd post, nicely said, with this upcoming MJO, chances are pretty good to break the earliest recorded E storm.
the next 3 named on the list are Earl,Fiona and Gaston
i dont think any hurricane records matter much. it would be different if we have 1000 yrs as a base.
well we got about 11 days lift of june any ch of us seeing the E storm be for the 11 days are up?
Quoting 591. ackee:

I think those agent that predicted a near normal hurricane season could ended with egg on there face I just can't see us being 4 name storm now end up with average season


Agreed lol even I predicting an active season might even be under doing it lol

I think this is gonna be a bad combo this year

Lots of storms tracks that roar through the Caribbean GOM and SE US

I wouldn't be suprised if we see storm tracks and intensities like Dean, Charley, Ivan, Gilbert, Gustav, Katrina, Wilma, Rita, Ike, Fay, Alex, Felix, Ida, Paloma and many more

Hope your prepared mate
The average formation of the 4th storm is August 23rd, so yep, this season is way different from the last 3 seasons.
Quoting 597. wunderkidcayman:



Agreed lol even I predicting an active season might even be under doing it lol

I think this is gonna be a bad combo this year

Lots of storms tracks that roar through the Caribbean GOM and SE US

I wouldn't be suprised if we see storm tracks and intensities like Dean, Charley, Ivan, Gilbert, Gustav, Katrina, Wilma, Rita, Ike, Fay, Alex, Felix, Ida, Paloma and many more

Hope your prepared mate


i hop we still have a blog too come too after this season they may need too re build the site if we start geting storms after storms with that kind of wind this blog would self destruction due too it be in over drive
Quoting 589. James1981cane:



No itt didn't


It all depends on what you consider "long range" (5 days, 7 days, 10 days, 16 days?) None of the models are accurate in the "long range" (300 hours or more).
But the Euro and GFS have been doing a pretty good job in the "middle range" (7 days) or so. With Colin they were accurate with the low forming over the N.W. Caribbean or Yucatan and then tracking towards the west coast of Florida as a tropical storm.

I really ignore the "long range" spin ups. But once we get down in the 7 day range I start to really take notice especially if there is model agreement (which we've seen with the systems so far this season in that time frame).



Quoting 600. Sfloridacat5:



It all depends on what you consider "long range" (5 days, 7 days, 10 days, 16 days?) None of the models are accurate in the "long range" (300 hours or more).
But the Euro and GFS have been doing a pretty good job in the "middle range" (7 days) or so. With Colin they were accurate with the low forming over the N.W. Caribbean or Yucatan and then tracking towards the west coast of Florida as a tropical storm.

I really ignore the "long range" spin ups. But once we get down in the 7 day range I start to really take notice especially if there is model agreement (which we've seen with the systems so far this season in that time frame).







wish model run did the best with DANIELLE?
602. Tcwx2
Haha!!!
Quoting 599. Tazmanian:



i hop we still have a blog too come too after this season they may need too re build the site if we start geting storms after storms with that kind of wind this blog would self destruction due too it be in over drive
Quoting 576. ryang:



Some nice agreement between the Euro and the GFS. The tracks are different, but they both show tropical storm-strength storms making landfall somewhere on the Gulf coast.
well I'm watching this tropical season to see just how good the upgrade was that the GFS got and see how well it performs with the coming tropical systems
Quoting 599. Tazmanian:



i hop we still have a blog too come too after this season they may need too re build the site if we start geting storms after storms with that kind of wind this blog would self destruction due too it be in over drive

Hurricanes can destroy blogs too.
Quoting 604. NCHurricaneTracker69:


yes for myself I'm sure watching the gulf when and IF it forms and watching for any track changes,Tampa bay isn't too far off from that strike zone huh,,yes I know..its way out in time,but many are worried about THIS particular tropical season,which is off to a running start so early.
gfs 300 hrs. another big bend landfaller? if it were early June i would say most likely but now we are entering July i am not so sure about this. pan handle.
Hurricane Tracker App @hurrrtrackerapp 55m
The last several GFS runs have featured a system in the W Caribbean around 6/30. Far out, just something to watch.
Quoting 601. Tazmanian:




wish model run did the best with DANIELLE?


To be honest, I've been on vacation and didn't pay much attention to Danielle. So I'm not the one to ask on that one.
With Bonnie and Colin I can go back and look at my saved library and see the model runs, but I didn't save the model runs for Danielle.

So sorry, I can't really speak accurately with Danielle.

Quoting 611. Sfloridacat5:



To be honest, I've been on vacation and didn't pay much attention to Danielle. So I'm not the one to ask on that one.
With Bonnie and Colin I can go back and look at my saved library and see the model runs, but I didn't save the model runs for Danielle.

So sorry, I can't really speak accurately with Danielle.




thanks for trying
Quoting 598. Climate175:

The average formation of the 4th storm is August 23rd, so yep, this season is way different from the last 3 seasons.


looking at it its way different than the past 9 to 11 years to be honest lol

Quoting 599. Tazmanian:



i hop we still have a blog too come too after this season they may need too re build the site if we start geting storms after storms with that kind of wind this blog would self destruction due too it be in over drive


lol I hope so too hell I hope we still have a Caribbean, central American coast, Gulf coast, and SE US Coast after this season
Quoting 594. Tazmanian:

the next 3 named on the list are Earl,Fiona and Gaston


Correction: Earl, Fiona, and Gastonic Gaston.
Morning all. I see we have Danielle. I think we all kind of assumed we would. Not a horrendous looking 40mph system either. Early start this year, but ima side with Baha, I think, in that July will likely be fairly uneventful. We shall see however. Eatl looking fairly ripe lately. Nice early waves too. Have fun!
Quoting 613. wunderkidcayman:



looking at it its way different than the past 9 to 11 years to be honest lol



lol I hope so too hell I hope we still have a Caribbean, central American coast, Gulf coast, and SE US Coast after this season
True.
Adrian Linares @Adriansweather 21h
Impressive heat content in the Carib combined with low shear should make for some interesting times in coming weeks.
Quoting 617. Climate175:

Adrian Linares @Adriansweather 21h
Impressive heat content in the Carib combined with low shear should make for some interesting times in coming weeks.


Yep
Is the system spinning off the east coast not tropical?
Am forecasting 3 too 5 named storms in July just like 2005
For those fearing (or hoping) that a lot of early storm activity is a sure sign that there'll be a lot of late storm activity, keep in mind that seasons can be very lopsided. For instance, 2011 saw one June storm; three July storms; eight August storms, then three more in September before the statistical peak. With that count of 15 by halftime, many here thought the year might end with up to 30 storms.

Alas, that wasn't to be.

Just two more storms formed in September after that, then one in October, and, finally, one in November. IOW, rather than a 50/50 split between the front and back halves of the season, the ratio was 78/22. So, yes, while we were up to our 'N' storm by just after Labor Day, we only managed to reach the letter 'S' by Thanksgiving.

In short, heavy early season activity is no guarantee of a hyperactive--or even above average--season.
Quoting 617. Climate175:

Adrian Linares @Adriansweather 21h
Impressive heat content in the Carib combined with low shear should make for some interesting times in coming weeks.


Couldn't agree more he said it better than my self
Quoting 622. Neapolitan:

For those fearing (or hoping) that a lot of early storm activity is a sure sign that there'll be a lot of late storm activity, keep in mind that seasons can be very lopsided. For instance, 2011 saw one June storm; three July storms; eight August storms, then three more in September before the statistical peak. With that count of 15 by halftime, many here thought the year might end with up to 30 storms.

Alas, that wasn't to be.

Just two more storms formed in September after that, then one in October, and, finally, one in November. IOW, rather than a 50/50 split between the front and back halves of the season, the ratio was 78/22. So, yes, while we were up to our 'N' storm by just after Labor Day, we only managed to reach the letter 'S' by Thanksgiving.

In short, heavy early season activity is no guarantee of a hyperactive--or even above average--season.



Don't spoil the fun
Looks like DANIELLE is doing the splits this Am with a blob N and a blob S could the Blob S be Daniel evil twin sister?
Quoting 603. NCHurricaneTracker69:


Some nice agreement between the Euro and the GFS. The tracks are different, but they both show tropical storm-strength storms making landfall somewhere on the Gulf coast.


Entirely different systems. The ECMWF system is a trough split.
622. I agree with everything you've said, but I don't recall anyone (reasonably) expecting 15 additional named storms to develop past the seasonal peak in 2011.

I'd say 2012 is a better situation to compare this to; 4 named by the first week of July, followed by no development until August. However, I do not believe this will be the case as July 2012 saw a downward MJO move through the basin, suppressing convective development. July 2016 may be starting with a respectable upward MJO pulse per the NCEP and the GFS is already, in the long range, hinting at the potential for development to exist. We'll see what happens!

Quoting 618. Tazmanian:




You been flagged you make no sense at all


Lmao rotflmao lol ha there is nothing like a good laughter in the morning it truly gets your day going right thank you Taz


Quoting 621. Tazmanian:

Am forecasting 3 too 5 named storms in July just like 2005

Yes I can see this happening as well

Quoting 622. Neapolitan:

For those fearing (or hoping) that a lot of early storm activity is a sure sign that there'll be a lot of late storm activity, keep in mind that seasons can be very lopsided. For instance, 2011 saw one June storm; three July storms; eight August storms, then three more in September before the statistical peak. With that count of 15 by halftime, many here thought the year might end with up to 30 storms.

Alas, that wasn't to be.

Just two more storms formed in September after that, then one in October, and, finally, one in November. IOW, rather than a 50/50 split between the front and back halves of the season, the ratio was 78/22. So, yes, while we were up to our 'N' storm by just after Labor Day, we only managed to reach the letter 'S' by Thanksgiving.

In short, heavy early season activity is no guarantee of a hyperactive--or even above average--season.


And there is no guarantee of a normal active season either and it could very well be a hyperactive season
Quoting 601. Tazmanian:




wish model run did the best with DANIELLE?
Taz, the GFS ensembles were hinting at something forming in the vicinity of the Gulf pretty strongly.
Quoting 629. Climate175:

Taz, the GFS ensembles were hinting at something forming in the vicinity of the Gulf pretty strongly.


I think the GFS is the winner
Quoting 627. CybrTeddy:

622. I agree with everything you've said, but I don't recall anyone (reasonably) expecting 15 additional named storms to develop past the seasonal peak in 2011.

I'd say 2012 is a better situation to compare this to; 4 named by the first week of July, followed by no development until August. However, I do not believe this will be the case as July 2012 saw a downward MJO move through the basin, suppressing convective development. July 2016 may be starting with a respectable upward MJO pulse per the NCEP and the GFS is already, in the long range, hinting at the potential for development to exist. We'll see what happens!




I wonder what would happen if we do end up with an unprecedented hyperactive season like what we had in 2005 for this year

Really being serious though

At this rate if this continues I wouldn't be surprised even with the increased favourability coming on
I wonder if we get an active rest of season maybe even some Dec storm hehe have not seen a proper Dec storm in a good few years that would be awesome at the end part of season we would be getting the funny advisories from NHC like we did back in 2005 I do miss them they were great
Yes it did, the GFS depicted were the low would be in SW Caribbean which would take it towards the Yucatan, which would become Colin and head towards Florida.
Quoting 589. James1981cane:



No itt didn't
Looks like this could be the hottest June on record for the CONUS, probably the hottest summer as well. It will be interesting to see if we can finally take down 1936 for #1, after a couple of close calls in 2006 and 2012.
Quoting 625. Tazmanian:

Looks like DANIELLE is doing the splits this Am with a blob N and a blob S could the Blob S be Daniel evil twin sister?
Danielle looking good.
636. elioe
So, we have Danielle. The season advances several weeks faster than my original expectations. I strongly believe we see TS/Hurricane Earl in the Gulf of Mexico within 16 days, since the majority of GFS ensemble members show so, and they did so well with Danielle. (Even though they dropped Danielle a week before its formation.)

Doom picture of the day:
Quoting 635. Climate175:

Danielle looking good.


Very good, but she's blowing up so much that the animation is almost like an optical illusion, it nearly looks like she's backing northeast. It would be very interesting if she did in fact manage to buy herself more time over water.

That's a lot of dangerous rain on tap for Mexico.
There's something in the South China Sea, approx. five days ahead on the GFS that really looks like a strong TS in the making. It deserves to be watched IMO.
Earth.nullschool.net, wind and MSLP, June 25
Or even more impressive, surface winds and TPW.
Quoting 622. Neapolitan:

For those fearing (or hoping) that a lot of early storm activity is a sure sign that there'll be a lot of late storm activity, keep in mind that seasons can be very lopsided. For instance, 2011 saw one June storm; three July storms; eight August storms, then three more in September before the statistical peak. With that count of 15 by halftime, many here thought the year might end with up to 30 storms.

Alas, that wasn't to be.

Just two more storms formed in September after that, then one in October, and, finally, one in November. IOW, rather than a 50/50 split between the front and back halves of the season, the ratio was 78/22. So, yes, while we were up to our 'N' storm by just after Labor Day, we only managed to reach the letter 'S' by Thanksgiving.

In short, heavy early season activity is no guarantee of a hyperactive--or even above average--season.


I hate when you bring reason to the insanity.
640. Ed22
Quoting 637. LostTomorrows:



Very good, but she's blowing up so much that the animation is almost like an optical illusion, it nearly looks like she's backing northeast. It would be very interesting if she did in fact manage to buy herself more time over water.

That's a lot of dangerous rain on tap for Mexico.
Tropical storm Danielle looks like a storm not moving much though... The easiest "D" storm on record...
i dont have a clue whats going to happen this season. the more spinners more likely to get unlucky
Danielle looks very nice this morning despite people pulling out the rip card yesterday and actually looks like a T.C.It is to early to compare this season to 2005 just because we are up to the 4th named storm.While July of this year doesn't seem like it will be dead like 2012 I still would't shout out 2005 so soon.Perhaps if we were to actually get a hurricane or two by the end of July developing deep in the tropics then maybe I could see reasons for the comparisons/concern but right now it is just to soon to know.
Are there any other waves that might develop besides the large one coming in July?
Also, first post :)
I say W. Pac. is gonna wake up soon. Himawari-8, airmass (saved screenshot) :

Edit: Danielle's clouds are overshooting nicely now.
Euro shows a weak tropical storm affecting Texas and the the last thing they need is any more rain.I have seen storms quickly spin up in that area too like Edouard(2008) Alicia and Humberto(2007)
647. SLU
Quoting 631. wunderkidcayman:



I wonder what would happen if we do end up with an unprecedented hyperactive season like what we had in 2005 for this year

Really being serious though

At this rate if this continues I wouldn't be surprised even with the increased favourability coming on
I wonder if we get an active rest of season maybe even some Dec storm hehe have not seen a proper Dec storm in a good few years that would be awesome at the end part of season we would be getting the funny advisories from NHC like we did back in 2005 I do miss them they were great


One key to knowing if the Atlantic may see a blockbuster year is to watch the activity in the EPAC and WPAC. These basins both have 0-0-0 by this date which is near record breaking. All that energy must be released somewhere. That is what we saw in 2010. Also the AMO index for May was one of the highest on record in line with 1998 and 2010, both of which were extremely active seasons and they were also La Nina years coming out of El Ninos which started in the previous year and faded away just before these seasons started.



It doesn't seem like El Nino may come back this winter lol.
There seems to be a propensity for storms to form this year, whether it is climatology, the benefit of the global warming, or just pure chance. Based on the current formations, and the fact that the Atlantic is warmer than normal, and the large possibility of La Nina by August - September, thereby reducing shear, I would expect to see an above average year with multiple landfalls.

Every storm thus far this year has made landfall, and regardless of your stance, you have to admit that early June has been extraordinarily active, compared to previous years. I do agree that if the storms continue to form, and intensity ramps up in July, we could be in for a very interesting and busy tropical season.

I also think due to the major changes in the atmosphere from the past, analogue years are hard to pinpoint, as the propensity for storms to form and intensify is greater in our current environment.

Quoting 404. HurricaneFan:

July and August will be the months that determine it all. If we pass trough these months without a major hurricane, 2016 is likely to be a below or near normal season similar to the last 3. But if July comes and we get a major hurricane, that will likely indicate that an above average season is ahead. I'm still thinking this season will be above average, but it is way too early to start the 2005 comparisons until we actually see some storms with intensity.
Quoting 635. Climate175:

Danielle looking good.


I've not seen any current shear maps, but it looks like the shear has calmed and the convection is finally staying 'with' her. If she had a bit more time, looks like it'd start wrapping up, might get a wee bit before landfall though.
Quoting 648. CaribBoy:



It doesn't seem like El Nino may come back this winter lol.
La Nina Winter ahead.
Good morning folks! I see that we now officially have Danielle. Has there ever been a time in recorded history when the Atlantic has seen 4 named storms before the East Pacific gets it's first named storm?

10:00 AM CDT Mon Jun 20
Location: 20.7°N 96.3°W
Moving: W at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph
It's strange how Danielle looks rather stationary and yet mighty powerful too now. It almost looks like an eyewall is trying to form at the moment.
655. 882MB
Quoting 644. tigerdeF:

Are there any other waves that might develop besides the large one coming in July?
Also, first post :)


Welcome to the blog. Looking at the models, the only threat area we have besides Danielle, is a disturbance in the W-Caribbean sometime late next week. Still far out in time, but something to keep an eye on, as models have been consistent for the last couple of days.
Quoting 648. CaribBoy:



It doesn't seem like El Nino may come back this winter lol.


The El Niño wasn't gonna come back anyway

Quoting 653. Climate175:


10:00 AM CDT Mon Jun 20
Location: 20.7°N 96.3°W
Moving: W at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph


I think it's stronger than that and moving atleast WNW if not NW

We need another recon
Are they gonna have another mission into Danielle
I just want to say an active start to the season does not mean anything come August and September. 1997 and 2013 each had 4 storms before August and ended up being very inactive, only time will tell
Quoting 644. tigerdeF:

Are there any other waves that might develop besides the large one coming in July?
Also, first post :)
Nothing showing up in the Eastern Atlantic as July begins just yet, I believe that will change quickly.
Looks like the Euro tries to close off the north Atlantic disturbance as a sst before jetting it out to sea.
Morning everyone!! I am putting up my number for this season counting the 4 named we've already had.. 15-7-4 is my current outlook..Just asking does these numbers seem possible? thanks for all your comments.. Hank
Quoting 657. all4hurricanes:

I just want to say an active start to the season does not mean anything come August and September. 1997 and 2013 each had 4 storms before August and ended up being very inactive, only time will tell


Both of those year were not boasting favourable conditions in the Atlantic
Quoting 657. all4hurricanes:

I just want to say an active start to the season does not mean anything come August and September. 1997 and 2013 each had 4 storms before August and ended up being very inactive, only time will tell
To be fair 1997 had a developing record el nino that eventually suppressed activity in the Atlantic.
Quoting 660. stormhank:

Morning everyone!! I am putting up my number for this season counting the 4 named we've already had.. 15-7-4 is my current outlook..Just asking does these numbers seem possible? thanks for all your comments.. Hank


Those are basically the same numbers everyone else had at end of May/early June we are thing those number will increase even more so during the next couple of updated
Quoting 660. stormhank:

Morning everyone!! I am putting up my number for this season counting the 4 named we've already had.. 15-7-4 is my current outlook..Just asking does these numbers seem possible? thanks for all your comments.. Hank


I went with 14 storms for this season, but now I feel pretty confident we'll end up with more than that.
Quoting 661. wunderkidcayman:



Both of those year were not boasting favourable conditions in the Atlantic

At the time it seemed 2013 was going to be very active, two July storms forming from tropical waves in the MDR! I'll give you 1997. Hindsight is 20/20, just keep in mind that nothing is certain
Quoting 662. washingtonian115:

To be fair 1997 had a developing record el nino that eventually suppressed activity in the Atlantic.


Yes indeed

Also 2013 was the start year for conditions to worsen for the "somewhat El Niño" of 2014-2015 and the near record El Niño of 2015-2016
Danielle (saved loop) :

Sfloridacat5 .664 : that's why I directly made a bullish prediction on Maxweather blog as soon as he started advertising for his poll ;-)
A lil warm in the NW Gulf, don't recall seeing something like this in my backyard

Quoting 665. all4hurricanes:


At the time it seemed 2013 was going to be very active, two July storms forming from tropical waves in the MDR! Hindsight is 20/20, just keep in mind that nothing is certain


14 storms was respectable for 2013, except most were short lived and there were only 2 hurricanes....
Tidbit: The five most intense U.S. Hurricanes made landfall between August 17th-September 2nd.
Testing, 1-2-3................
Quoting 668. RitaEvac:

A lil warm in the NW Gulf, don't recall seeing something like this in my backyard
Euro sends you all a weak tropical storm to end June with (still a ways out though).I think the proper season to reference this early season activity with is the 1886 Atlantic hurricane season which saw only 12 named storms (could have missed a few) to end out the season.
Link
Nice and warm in the tropics



Quoting 671. RitaEvac:

Great visible loop of Danielle

Woow mindblowing quality thx ! That's definitely an eyewall trying to form IMO. Now it looks like a tropical cyclone.

Current Analysis -----
Lot of action with tropical waves in the Atl!



Quoting 674. RitaEvac:

Nice and warm in the tropics




Look at that pink area near the Bahamas, very warm.
Is recon going out again today?
Quoting 673. washingtonian115:

Euro sends you all a weak tropical storm to end June with (still a ways out though).I don't think we've seen 3 storms form in June before.


Believe it when I see it :)
Danielle is looking great today, much better than Bonnie or Colin every did. IMO we could see a 55-60 mph tropical storm at landfall if the structure continues to improve like this.
Quoting 668. RitaEvac:

A lil warm in the NW Gulf, don't recall seeing something like this in my backyard


gulp! Look at the hot spot north of Cuba!
Recon sched is found on the NHC home page menu. bookmark it.

1886

Quoting 682. Patrap:

Recon sched is found on the HHC home page menu. bookmark it.




Thanks. Found it.
for the new folks here who hear about 2005 being talked about.......................
Quoting 652. Tornado6042008X:

Good morning folks! I see that we now officially have Danielle. Has there ever been a time in recorded history when the Atlantic has seen 4 named storms before the East Pacific gets it's first named storm?
Nevermind what will probably become latest that the east Pacific has gone without a named storm this week; as well as earliest 4th named storm in the Atlantic basin; Yeap this will be history.
Looks like no more recon flights

688. Ed22
Quoting 650. mitthbevnuruodo:



I've not seen any current shear maps, but it looks like the shear has calmed and the convection is finally staying 'with' her. If she had a bit more time, looks like it'd start wrapping up, might get a wee bit before landfall though.
Alex and Danielle look like tropical cyclone this year its organization is way better than Bonnie and Chantol... Looks to be more Northwest to me but much slower that last night...
Interesting to see that we have Danielle now and another record broken. We may break the record for earliest forming 5th storm as well if long range models are right.

Also, if the GFS/CMC/NAVGEM are right, the Western Pacific may see its first named storm later this week in the South China Sea. With July fast approaching, we should see activity in the Western Pacific start to increase.

If you see this later in the year....time to run for the hills

The coast of Mexico is lucky T.S. Danielle is running out of water fast. The system has found a sweet spot where the shear is lower and the convection is exploding around the system.
692. Tcwx2
Danellie looks great for a 45mph TS!!
it seems this one started at the lower levels worked it way up.
695. Ed22
Quoting 659. washingtonian115:

Looks like the Euro tries to close off the north Atlantic disturbance as a sst before jetting it out to sea.

Models picking back on that tropical disturbance just hundred east of tip north Carolinas, could that be Earl; maybe...
Still too early to consider that this season will be anything like 2005. If we get 3-4 more named storms before August 1st then we can talk about a season that will be much above normal.
Quoting 690. RitaEvac:

If you see this later in the year....time to run for the hills


Quoting 660. stormhank:

Morning everyone!! I am putting up my number for this season counting the 4 named we've already had.. 15-7-4 is my current outlook..Just asking does these numbers seem possible? thanks for all your comments.. Hank


You mean, do these numbers seem possible? Not does.
Quoting 696. Drakoen:

Still too early to consider that this season will be anything like 2005. If we get 3-4 more named storms before August 1st then we can talk about a season that will be much above normal.
What is more important for me to observe is whether we get a hurricane in July as that will tell us if we are in for a very active season that is favorable for storms in the deep tropics.
12z GFS now running, let's see what this run will say about potential Western Caribbean/Gulf storm next week, and any other areas of development.
6 Junes ago in 2010 we had Hurricane Alex



701. SLU
Quoting 643. washingtonian115:

Danielle looks very nice this morning despite people pulling out the rip card yesterday and actually looks like a T.C.It is to early to compare this season to 2005 just because we are up to the 4th named storm.While July of this year doesn't seem like it will be dead like 2012 I still would't shout out 2005 so soon.Perhaps if we were to actually get a hurricane or two by the end of July developing deep in the tropics then maybe I could see reasons for the comparisons/concern but right now it is just to soon to know.


I agree. The real litmus test will be if we get an Emily-type system in the MDR in July, then it will be time to buckle up. Until then, it's way too early to bring 2005 into the equation.

I wish Veracruz had a working doppler radar. Would really like to see what the center looks like on radar.
Quoting 701. SLU:



I agree. The real litmus test will be if we get an Emily-type system in the MDR in July, then it will be time to buckle up. Until then, it's way too early to bring 2005 into the equation.


It's now just a wait and see.
I'm really impressed by Danielle now. It looks like maybe it's about to make landfall without much time for further intensification. At least that's my hopeful thought of the day.
Quoting 690. RitaEvac:

If you see this later in the year....time to run for the hills


If that TCHP keeps going at that rate Ill be packing my bags with my laptop early!
Quoting 702. Sfloridacat5:

I wish Veracruz had a working doppler radar. Would really like to see what the center looks like on radar.


There's a webcam http://webcamsdemexico.com/webcam-veracruz
Too bad Danielle didn't come up into Texas, it is getting dry with all this hot weather.
Quoting 700. RitaEvac:

6 Junes ago in 2010 we had Hurricane Alex






I was out surfing in the Corpus Christi area when Hurricane Gilbert went into Mexico. We had some huge surf. The waves looked like 2-3 story buildings rolling in.
Well I did predict before hurricane season started 21-9-4. I mite get close to those numbers real soon!
Danielle may get to a 50 mph storm before landfall looks good
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
The monster that was Hurricane Gilbert when it had 185 mph sustained winds in the Western Caribbean.
I am reading here that Danielle is the earliest D storm ( and #4 storm I presume) in recorded history. Ain't that something?

For me, ACE - Accumulated Cyclone Energy, for the noobs - would reveal more about the "strength" of a season than counting how many storms. Numbers alone, like when you look at numbers of tornadoes and not EF ratings, don't depict what's real in terms of impact or strength.

I'd like to see a comparison of ACE. The 4 named storms of 2016 have a total ACE of 5 at present,
according to wiki article on ACE (Thanks to whoever wrote that.)

Does anyone else wonder about 2012 and 2005 as far as the total ACE by this time in June and/or total ACE through the D storm? Additional years might be interesting to look at also. I will look for 05 and 012 ACE through D storm numbers if/when I get time.

Meanwhile, maybe someone else might volunteer to take on that project - looking at ACE numbers along with how far we are into the alphabet of storm names.
715. MahFL
Quoting 649. HurricaneDevo:

... I would expect to see an above average year with multiple landfalls...




How do you know where all the storms will track ?, the ones in the Atlantic might re-curve harmlessly out to sea.