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94L May Develop, Bring Heavy Rains to Mexico's Bay of Campeche Coast

By: Jeff Masters 4:10 PM GMT on June 18, 2016

A tropical disturbance over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula (Invest 94L) has the potential to develop into a tropical depression on Sunday or Monday over the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche as the storm heads west-northwest at 10 mph. Satellite loops late Saturday morning showed the disturbance had developed a moderate degree of spin, with a few low-level spiral bands already apparent over the Bay of Campeche; Mexican radar out of Sabancuy showed a few heavy rain showers over the Yucatan Peninsula and adjacent waters. Invest 94L had only a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, and development was being arrested by interaction with land and the presence of high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots. Water vapor satellite images showed a large area of dry air over the western Gulf of Mexico, which was also slowing development. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the southern Gulf of Mexico are very warm, about 29 - 29.5°C (84 - 85°F), which will help development. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is on call to investigate 94L on Sunday afternoon.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 94L approaching the Gulf of Mexico.

Forecast for 94L
Steering currents favor a west-northwest motion for 94L across the Bay of Campeche, with landfall occurring between Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico on Monday afternoon or evening. In this region, 3 - 6" of rain are likely Sunday through Tuesday--with higher rainfall amounts to be expected if 94L ends up developing into a tropical storm. The 8 am EDT Saturday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would stay high, 20 - 30 knots, through Sunday night, then fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, on Monday, giving 94L a better chance to develop then. The Saturday morning operational runs of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the European, GFS and UKMET models, had one model--the European--supporting development of 94L into a tropical depression. However, about 40 - 50% of the 70 forecasts from the GFS and European model ensembles showed 94L developing into a tropical depression by Monday. The coast of the southern Gulf of Mexico along the Bay of Campeche is ringed by high mountains that tend to deflect the flow of air into a counter-clockwise path, adding spin that helps aid formation of tropical cyclones. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 40%. I put these odds higher, at 60%, given the appearance of 94L on satellite imagery on Saturday morning, and the propensity of the Bay of Campeche to help spin up tropical cyclones. If 94L becomes a tropical storm, it would be named Danielle. I don't see heavy rains from 94L reaching South Texas.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks dok!
IMO, 94L has a high chance of development. The BOC is infamous for quickly spinning up weak-moderate tropical storms this time of year. Bret in 2005, Arlene in 2011, and Barry 2013 are all examples that would be relevant to this situation.
it seems as if they want to spin up easily this yr. hopefully the trend does not continue
Thanks Dr. Masters! Danielle looks to be on it's way.
hey jeff where are you seeing wind shear of 20 too 25kt?

here what you said

94L had only a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, and development was being arrested by interaction with land and the presence of high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots


i do not see 20 too 25kt wind shear i only see 5 too 10kt so wind shear is vary light where 94L is

am looking at the wind shear map and i only see 5 to 10 kt

Nice to see you again, Dr. Masters.
Quoting 5. Tazmanian:

hey jeff where are you seeing wind shear of 20 too 25kt?

here what you said

94L had only a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, and development was being arrested by interaction with land and the presence of high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots


i do not see 20 too 25kt wind shear i only see 5 too 10kt so wind shear is vary light where 94L is

am looking at the wind shear map and i only see 5 to 10 kt



Right where the invest is located - just off the northwest coast of the Yucatan . . . .

It is increasing over the past 24 hours in that area.




Quoting 7. daddyjames:



Right where the invest is located - just off the northwest coast of the Yucatan . . . .

It is increasing over the past 24 hours in that area.








oh ok thanks
Hey guy I was posting comments from last night that just would not come through then signing out and back in posed problems so anyway problem rectified and I'm back on

Anyway as I was saying from last night

I expected that we would have invest 94L and I think we will have TD 4 soon with possibly TS Danielle before landfall
are we still looking at that STS that the model been hiting at off the E coast
still on the fence about this development, but the BOC is know for a quick spin up, so it has a shot
So yes we indeed have 94L
And as I said I expect it to become a TD 4 then TS Danielle
If this is the case this would be the 4th invest in a row to become a tropical depression and the 4th tropical depression in a row to become a named tropical storm with Alex leading the way strengthening into a hurricane
Quoting 10. Tazmanian:

are we still looking at that STS that the model been hiting at off the E coast


Hey Taz I think it's still a possibility but in the eyes of the NHC they think with will not transition nor expects the low to separate from the front
i all so said last night when i wake up in the AM i would see 94L and look we got 94L
Quoting 13. wunderkidcayman:



Hey Taz I think it's still a possibility but in the eyes of the NHC they think with will not transition nor expects the low to separate from the front



hey wunderkidcayman ok sounds good too me what would the next ch on seeing the E storm be for july if 94L be comes the D storm
Thanks for the update, Dr. Masters...
INVEST 90L -
INVEST 91L - TD1 - TS Alex - Hurricane Alex
INVEST 92L - TD2 - TS Bonnie
INVEST 93L - TD3 - TS Colin
INVEST 94L - TD4? - TS Danielle?

Isn't this correct? Not too sure
Quoting 17. wunderkidcayman:

INVEST 90L -
INVEST 91L - TD1 - TS Alex - Hurricane Alex
INVEST 92L - TD2 - TS Bonnie
INVEST 93L - TD3 - TS Colin
INVEST 94L - TD4? - TS Danielle?

Isn't this correct? Not too sure


90L was Alex
91L was Bonnie
92L was the regeneration of Ex Bonnie
93L was Colin
94L???
Quoting 15. Tazmanian:




hey wunderkidcayman ok sounds good too me what would the next ch on seeing the E storm be for july if 94L be comes the D storm


Well if the E Coast system doesn't happen it would be another NW Caribbean system that moves into the GOM (the models are hinting less land interaction than Colin had with Yucatan and has this system staying over the NW Caribbean and going over the Yucatan channel) and this is before July

The next could potentially be near the CV islands during first few days in July going onwards
Quoting 17. wunderkidcayman:

INVEST 90L -
INVEST 91L - TD1 - TS Alex - Hurricane Alex
INVEST 92L - TD2 - TS Bonnie
INVEST 93L - TD3 - TS Colin
INVEST 94L - TD4? - TS Danielle?

Isn't this correct? Not too sure


Ah yes I now remember

INVEST 90L - TD1 - TS Alex - Hurricane Alex
INVEST 91L - TD1 - TS Bonnie (pt 1)
INVEST 92L - TDBonnie - TS Bonnie (pt 2)
INVEST 93L - TD3 - TS Colin
INVEST 94L - TD4? - TS Danielle?
Quoting 19. Hurricanes101:



90L was Alex
91L was Bonnie
92L was the regeneration of Ex Bonnie
93L was Colin
94L???


Yes indeed
Quoting 21. wunderkidcayman:



Well if the E Coast system doesn't happen it would be another NW Caribbean system that moves into the GOM (the models are hinting less land interaction than Colin had with Yucatan and has this system staying over the NW Caribbean and going over the Yucatan channel) and this is before July

The next could potentially be near the CV islands during first few days in July going onwards


i think its vary rare too get some going right up the Yucatan channel with out hiting any land 1st so it looks like the next week or so too the 1st two weeks of july we could see Earl,Fiona and may be Gaston? if we get the STS off the E coast ?
You gotta admin we're off on a smashing start

Would this be earliest D named storm if 94L does indeed become Danielle
Sherpa Fire now over 7000 acres...

90.9 yesterday, forecast today is 98, will see how that turns out, then it gets HOTTER...
Quoting 26. Tazmanian:



i think its vary rare too get some going right up the Yucatan channel with out hiting any land 1st so it looks like the next week or so too the 1st two weeks of july we could see Earl,Fiona and may be Gaston? if we get the STS off the E coast ?


A system moving through the channel is not rare at all actually

Anyway as I said and to add if we get to Gaston by the first half of July I think that would be a record or atleast near

Yes this is one active season system #7 before late July/early August and activity will only increase as we go on through July and onwards

If this continues I can easily see us having a 16/17+ storm season hell wouldn't surprise me if we go tapping into the 20's this year if this is the case

Quoting 30. wunderkidcayman:



A system moving through the channel is not rare at all actually

Anyway as I said and to add if we get to Gaston by the first half of July I think that would be a record or atleast near

Yes this is one active season system #7 before late July/early August and activity will only increase as we go on through July and onwards

If this continues I can easily see us having a 16/17+ storm season hell wouldn't surprise me if we go tapping into the 20's this year if this is the case




agreed and the E PAC is still waiting on the 1st lol has 93E was a bust
Quoting 30. wunderkidcayman:



A system moving through the channel is not rare at all actually

Anyway as I said and to add if we get to Gaston by the first half of July I think that would be a record or atleast near

Yes this is one active season system #7 before late July/early August and activity will only increase as we go on through July and onwards

If this continues I can easily see us having a 16/17+ storm season hell wouldn't surprise me if we go tapping into the 20's this year if this is the case


Add to that September and October, so buckle up, this season is only just getting started.
i agree with high probability with 94L development. shear be light. can anyone post a link to an article on the terrain features that make the BOC have the low level spin bowl effect? i would love to read more on how specific land features steer the mechanics of a developing TC, thanks!
Quoting 27. wunderkidcayman:

You gotta admin we're off on a smashing start

Would this be earliest D named storm if 94L does indeed become Danielle


Current record is held by 2012, Debby formed on June 23rd
Quoting 32. Climate175:

Add to that September and October, so buckle up, this season is only just getting started.


and with vary light wind shear this season we are going too be seeing a lot of major hurricane out there even a few making land fall in the USA so this year could be the year that the USA luck runs out
GFS dropped the ball.....It had what is now invest 94L two weeks ago and dropped the storm a few days ago.
Quoting 38. washingtonian115:

GFS dropped the ball.....It had what is now invest 94L two weeks ago and dropped the storm a few days ago.


GFS is notorious for doing that.
up too 50%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure has developed offshore of the west
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula today, but the associated shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Some gradual development
of this system is expected during the next couple of days in an
environment of marginal upper-level winds, and a tropical depression
could form while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at
around 10 mph before moving inland over eastern Mexico. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this
system Sunday afternoon, if necessary. For additional information
on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent
Yucatan is getting the rain we normally get in June from the last two lows and waves that tend to dump over us in fact it did that quite a few times last year and that shift continues to keep us pretty dry here and brutally hot. Hopefully we get our November rains
Quoting 42. 19N81W:

Yucatan is getting the rain we normally get in June from the last two lows and waves that tend to dump over us in fact it did that quite a few times last year and that shift continues to keep us pretty dry here and brutally hot. Hopefully we get our November rains


I can feel your pain when I read your posts and I can empathize.
I remember a few years back that I wanted rain so badly and all it did was scorch.
Hopefully some comes your way soon
Quoting 5. Tazmanian:

hey jeff where are you seeing wind shear of 20 too 25kt?

here what you said

94L had only a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, and development was being arrested by interaction with land and the presence of high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots


i do not see 20 too 25kt wind shear i only see 5 too 10kt so wind shear is vary light where 94L is

am looking at the wind shear map and i only see 5 to 10 kt



20 - 25 knots is what the SHIPS model analyzed over 94L at 8 am EDT Saturday:

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/16061812AL9416 _ships.txt

Dr. M.
Quoting 44. JeffMasters:




i see now got it thanks

Inching closer to the BBQ which is Sun-Mon, Oh Joy...
Quoting 45. Tazmanian:



i see now got it thanks


Taz, I was kind of with you on this.
When I look at where the L is placed, at the west side of the peninsula I see 5-10 as well.
I see the 20-25 on the southeast side of where the thunderstorms are
Quoting 46. PedleyCA:


Inching closer to the BBQ which is Sun-Mon, Oh Joy...


Ped, hope you dont have to be out and about in those kind of temps ...gotta be miserable.
Houston has been under heat advisories pretty much all week and we have implemented the heat action plan ...you know, where libraries and such are made available for all that have no place cool to go
Quoting 33. FyrtleMyrtle:

i agree with high probability with 94L development. shear be light. can anyone post a link to an article on the terrain features that make the BOC have the low level spin bowl effect? i would love to read more on how specific land features steer the mechanics of a developing TC, thanks!


I heard this effect mentioned in a talk given at the AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology several years ago...I don't know if the effect has been described in a publication, though. If anyone can find a reference, I'd like a copy!

jmasters@wunderground.com


Dr. M.
Thanks for the update Dr Masters!

Currently 85 at my abode in the mountains of San Diego County going to be in the 90's today and then we get to get ready for the following:



Personally, Me thinks Margarita time is coming soon!
Quoting 48. justmehouston:



Ped, hope you dont have to be out and about in those kind of temps ...gotta be miserable.
Houston has been under heat advisories pretty much all week and we have implemented the heat action plan ...you know, where libraries and such are made available for all that have no place cool to go


You got me this time.....sorry for the double post!
Hot spot in Nunavut: 12.0 °C53.6 °F CFS Alert
Hot spot in Northwest Territories: 20.8 °C69.4 °F Fort McPherson Airport
Hot spot in Yukon: 20.1 °C68.2 °F Carmacks
Hot spot in Ontario: 30.9 °C87.6 °F Peterborough Trent U
environment Canada has new feature with this hour hot spot report per province


Hot spot in Newfoundland and Labrador: 25.4 C77.7 F Wabush Airport
Quoting 48. justmehouston:



Ped, hope you dont have to be out and about in those kind of temps ...gotta be miserable.
Houston has been under heat advisories pretty much all week and we have implemented the heat action plan ...you know, where libraries and such are made available for all that have no place cool to go


So true! Good Points! Myself, Im staying inside in front of an A/C blowing enough cold air to keep the pitcher of Margaritas icy! Nothing wrong with a pitcher of Margaritas and the US Open Golf Tourney! Like they say when it is 118 in Phoenix.....it's a dry heat.........LOL.........118 is still 118!
Quoting 55. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Hot spot in Ontario: 30.9 °C87.6 °F Peterborough Trent U


I think it is time for a mini vacation to NW Canada on a gold exploration trip..........the temps are WONDERFUL!
18/1745 UTC 20.1N 92.5W T1.0/1.0 94L -- Atlantic
Will it or won't it? 50/50 Looks to be some spin/turning in there.

Does 94L deserve a bump up in %? Some spin at 20N 91W ?

Quoting 34. Hurricanes101:



Current record is held by 2012, Debby formed on June 23rd


Debby 23 June 2012 so that means we will break it if indeed 94L becomes Danielle

Quoting 42. 19N81W:

Yucatan is getting the rain we normally get in June from the last two lows and waves that tend to dump over us in fact it did that quite a few times last year and that shift continues to keep us pretty dry here and brutally hot. Hopefully we get our November rains


Lol your not getting the rains I am

I do have to say it is indeed slightly less rain than what we normally get this time of year I wouldn't really say it's pretty dry but anyway I'm sure this will all change very soon
I do agree with you on one thing it is hot really badly

Quoting 62. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Does 94L deserve a bump up in %?




I think the NHC no what they are doing
Quoting 49. JeffMasters:



I heard this effect mentioned in a talk given at the AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology several years ago...I don't know if the effect has been described in a publication, though. If anyone can find a reference, I'd like a copy!

jmasters@wunderground.com


Dr. M.


Found it:

http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/lookingatearth/g ert_study.html

"We examined the role that topography in Mexico played in the development of Tropical Storm Gert (2005)," said Braun. They found that the mountains blocked the flow of air at low levels, which according to the computer model was critical in helping Gert form. As the weak disturbance that eventually became Gert moved into the Gulf of Mexico, the easterly winds associated with it ran up against the mountains of Mexico along the western side of the Gulf. When air flow like this encounters such an obstacle, it has two options.

Under the right conditions, air flow could simply go up and over the mountains. However, under other conditions (when the air is stable), the air encounters more resistance to upward movement and must go around the mountains. That is what happened in Gert's case. As the easterly winds hit the mountains, they were forced to turn to the southeast in a direction parallel to the mountains. By turning the flow partially back in the direction from which it came, the mountains increased the large-scale rotation of the winds over the Gulf, thereby providing a more favorable environment for Gert to form and intensify.

This may not necessarily apply to all storms in the Gulf. Gert was probably a borderline storm that needed help to form. While some systems like Gert may occasionally need help to develop, many other storms do not require such help, but can develop easily on their own. Scientists don't know how often storms might need this type of help."

Dr. M.


Hot spot in Ontario: 31.8 °C89.2 °F Hamilton
Quoting 64. Tazmanian:



I think the NHC no what they are doing


I thunk they do to Taz...........I was just asking the question. Pulling for 94L to become Danielle to set a record!
68. Ed22
Quoting 62. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Does 94L deserve a bump up in %? Some spin at 20N 91W ?


It's gathering strength and organising too... Any Asat running on 94L at this current time?
94L/INV/XX
Quoting 62. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Does 94L deserve a bump up in %? Some spin at 20N 91W ?




It looks better than Colin did lol
Actually most of the storms this year looked pretty ugly lol
Quoting 48. justmehouston:

Ped, hope you don't have to be out and about in those kind of temps ...gotta be miserable.
Houston has been under heat advisories pretty much all week and we have implemented the heat action plan ...you know, where libraries and such are made available for all that have no place cool to go



I have no no need to be outside, unless I have to make a food or water run....



Precip Water Vales really shoot up in the last frames as a circulation? by Yucatan Peninsula gets over water 2 distinct darker bands form.

Link
wish would you go buy

18/1745 UTC 20.1N 92.5W T1.0/1.0 94L -- Atlantic

AL, 94, 2016061818, , BEST, 0, 197N, 914W, 20, 1010, DB
Quoting 52. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Hot spot in Nunavut: 12.0 °C53.6 °F CFS Alert


Good to know someone's cooler than here in Scotland (59 F).
Anyone have a spare Aortic Valve?
Quoting 60. Gearsts:


Clearly can see that spin.
Quoting 76. yonzabam:



Good to know someone's cooler than here in Scotland (59 F).


Scotland sounds like another good vacation spot to get away from California for a week!
Quoting 77. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Anyone have a spare Aortic Valve?

Yep, I have about 150 in jars in my basement. (Not really)
Kinda neat to see 2 outflow boundaries in such local symmetry.


Quoting 70. wunderkidcayman:



It looks better than Colin did lol
Actually most of the storms this year looked pretty ugly lol


Hurricane Alex 2016 says that he didn't look so bad.



Live from the center of circulation (well, the COC based on the Sabancuy radar anyway)
Heat Warning in effect for:
•City of Toronto

Summer arrives in a blaze of heat.

Summer officially arrives on Monday, and Mother Nature is delivering weather to match the calendar. The most significant heat episode of the year is expected for much of Southern Ontario. Building heat over the past couple of days will peak Sunday and Monday with temperatures forecast to top off in the low to mid thirties. Overnight temperatures will also be warm Sunday night when readings are expected to be in the low twenties in many locales.

Later on Monday, an approaching cold front will herald the arrival of scattered showers and thunderstorms, followed by cooler conditions Monday night.

These hot conditions pose a health risk when you are not used to the heat.

While heat can put everyone at risk from heat illnesses, health risks are greatest for
- older adults;
- infants and young children;
- people with chronic illnesses such as breathing difficulties, heart conditions or psychiatric illnesses;
- people who work in the heat;
- people who exercise in the heat;
- homeless people; and
- people without access to air conditioning.

Drink plenty of liquids especially water before you feel thirsty to decrease your risk of dehydration. Thirst is not a good indicator of dehydration.

Heat warnings are issued when very high temperature or humidity conditions are expected to pose an elevated risk of heat illnesses, such as heat stroke or heat exhaustion.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.
Hot spot in Ontario: 32.1 °C89.8 °F Hamilton
TORONTO AIPORT TEMPS HUMIDEX

88°F
Humidex:

91
90. Ed22
Quoting 83. Patrap:


It could be a tropical depression by 11pm or early Sunday morning. It has a high chance of becoming tropical storm Danielle Sunday evening...
Quoting 90. Ed22:

It could be a tropical depression by 11pm or early Sunday morning. It has a high chance of becoming tropical storm Danielle Sunday evening...


It needs to a lot more organizing. Very little convection is maintaining near the circulation and there are outflow boundaries coming out from collapsing storms. I doubt a TD is possible before recon goes out tomorrow. Wind shear also 20-30 knots over the area.
92. Ed22
Quoting 86. LouisPasteur:



Live from the center of circulation (well, the COC based on the Sabancuy radar anyway)
Is the Reconnaissance Aircraft from the NHC going to investigate this System later this evening or early tomorrow morning...
Quoting 92. Ed22:

Is the Reconnaissance Aircraft from the NHC going to investigate this System later this evening or early tomorrow morning...


Tomorrow afternoon
Quoting 93. Hurricanes101:



Tomorrow afternoon


I hope to the Hurricane God that it's not cancelled before then.
Hot spot in Ontario: 32.4 °C90.3 °F Garrison Petawawa
Updated: Sat, 18 Jun 2016 19:30:04 GMT


Atlantic Basin


No Active Warnings
As of Sat, 18 Jun 2016 19:30:04 GMT
That area in the BOC certainly looks promising for a short lived tropical cyclone.

Numerous strong thunderstorms developing in the Orlando area right now. No rain at my house. As usual, the east/SE side of town gets nailed. The storms did the classic, develop just downwind from my location (moving away as they do), and start sucking the energy from the storms behind that actually are moving in my direction. Yes, we will almost certainly get at least a bit of rain (~0.05-0.15), but this amount of rain does not water deeply. Today's event isn't over just yet, so we could still get a good soaking.

Looking dry after today for the next 4-5 days.
94L/INV/XX


it gets 24 hrs from here launch sequence activated
brb got to go outside in the BBQ to check the BBQ see how the bake potatoes are doing then throw on the steaks
101. Ed22
Quoting 93. Hurricanes101:



Tomorrow afternoon
Ok why not in the morning?
nic big blow up in t- storms over the center of 94L







94L is starting to really organiz it self this PM we could see code red tonight with TD by 11pm or 5am and a TS by time recon gets in there
Quoting 101. Ed22:

Ok why not in the morning?


they go out when they are told too by the NHC and not when we say they do
104. Ed22
Quoting 36. Tazmanian:



and with vary light wind shear this season we are going too be seeing a lot of major hurricane out there even a few making land fall in the USA so this year could be the year that the USA luck runs out
Your absolutely right, your be looking anywhere between 15 to 20 storm form could be more too.
Quoting 82. NCHurricaneTracker69:


Yep, I have about 150 in jars in my basement. (Not really)


I was hoping! The only ones offered to me thus far are a mechanical one and 2 from animals cow, pig.
106. Ed22
Quoting 36. Tazmanian:



and with vary light wind shear this season we are going too be seeing a lot of major hurricane out there even a few making land fall in the USA so this year could be the year that the USA luck runs out
Your absolutely right, your be looking anywhere between 15 to 20 storm form could be more too.
Quoting 102. Tazmanian:

nic big blow up in t- storms over the center of 94L







94L is starting to really organiz it self this PM we could see code red tonight with TD by 11pm or 5am and a TS by time recon gets in there



I say a tropical depression could be fourming has I typed this 94L is really getting organized this. pm. With the big blow up of T-storms
108. Ed22
Quoting 103. Tazmanian:



they go out when they are told too by the NHC and not when we say they do
Ok I think by they go out their tomorrow afternoon we could have tropical storm Danielle on ours list to track...
Quoting 100. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

brb got to go outside in the BBQ to check the BBQ see how the bake potatoes are doing then throw on the steaks


Yum! Had that yesterday. I just love when the hubs is on vacation! :) Although, he was a little hot when he came in. Lol
97 here now. Heat index 107. Waiting for that backdoor front to come through. Shreveport Nws seemed real happy with. Lowered their temp almost 20 degrees! :)
Quoting 70. wunderkidcayman:



It looks better than Colin did lol
Actually most of the storms this year looked pretty ugly lol

Nah, only Colin was ugly. Alex & Bonnie weren't as bad lol. I was thinking 94L was actually getting a bit too sheared at first this morning (with the LLC developing west instead of under the upper ridging), but now it looks a little better this afternoon.
111. vis0
Someone let TAZ and  daddyjames know that both  have mail, if they can pass on to the website / Dr. Masters/Henson.

 (i might be on so many ignore lists that no one will read this except 5-7 people...or newcomers that don't understand how WxU mail "works")

It is a wait and see situation with 94L because we are still seeing thunderstorms collapse. 94L has to maintain that convection near its center before it can develop.

Just because it flared up, does not mean it will stay there
113. Ed22
Quoting 107. Tazmanian:




I say a tropical depression could be fourming has I typed this 94L is really getting organized this. pm. With the big blow up of T-storms
It continues to do so (94L) code red by 8 pm/7pm this evening. Tropical depression by 11pm/10pm tonight.
I think the prospects for Tropical Storm Danielle are around 80% at this point. Visible satellite loops show a low-level circulation in its formative stages, aided by the wind flow around the mountains that line the coastline of the Bay of Campeche (see Dr. Masters' comment a bit further down for a specific genesis example). Convection is flaring atop this circulation. Wind shear is moderate, some dry air is evident, and time is limited, so the chances for a hurricane appear low; that said, a weak to moderate tropical storm is very possible before landfall along the coastline of Mexico in 2 days or so.

I spent all day at the beach today here in Fort Myers. Sunny all day at the beach with about waist high waves and an onshore breeze.
It felt really warm but pretty normal for June.

90 degrees
Pressure 30.00 in
Visibility 10.0 miles
Clouds Scattered Clouds 3200 ft
Heat Index 100 F
Dew Point 76 F
Humidity 64%
Rainfall 0.05 in
Quoting 113. Ed22:

It continues to do so (94L) code red by 8 pm/7pm this evening. Tropical depression by 11pm/10pm tonight.


It's got too far to go to become a TD by tonight. If convection continues to build we could easily see a TD tomorrow.
117. Ed22
Quoting 107. Tazmanian:




I say a tropical depression could be fourming has I typed this 94L is really getting organized this. pm. With the big blow up of T-storms
The thunderstorms in association with 94L isn't collapsing, the spinning process is starting to get dominant now... It looks like 94L isn't moving much too...
Quoting 117. Ed22:

The thunderstorms in association with 94L isn't collapsing, the spinning process is starting to get dominant now... It looks like 94L isn't moving much too...


the earlier ones were as there are outflow boundaries still visible on the loop. Same thing happened last night too. It is doing its best to organize, the circulation is getting better defined and it is in a good spot with 2 days before landfall. It has a shot to develop, but it has to continue to organize

Quoting 110. NCHurricane2009:


Nah, only Colin was ugly. Alex & Bonnie weren't as bad lol. I was thinking 94L was actually getting a bit too sheared at first this morning (with the LLC developing west instead of under the upper ridging), but now it looks a little better this afternoon.


I did say most of the storms were ugly not all Alex was great Bonnie was ugly and Colin was ugly Colin being the ugliest
This is how it is up the hill from me. It is 94.7°F here.

Indian Hills
97.5 °F
Pressure 29.93 in
Visibility 10.0 miles
Clouds Scattered Clouds 20000 ft
Heat Index 93 °F
Dew Point 44 °F
Humidity 16%
Rainfall 0.00 in
121. Ed22
Quoting 114. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I think the prospects for Tropical Storm Danielle are around 80% at this point. Visible satellite loops show a low-level circulation in its formative stages, aided by the wind flow around the mountains that line the coastline of the Bay of Campeche (see Dr. Masters' comment a bit further down for a specific genesis example). Convection is flaring atop this circulation. Wind shear is moderate, some dry air is evident, and time is limited, so the chances for a hurricane appear low; that said, a weak to moderate tropical storm is very possible before landfall along the coastline of Mexico in 2 days or so.


Its getting their quickly than anticipated, wait and see weather enthusiast like myself...
Quoting 121. Ed22:

Its getting their quickly than anticipated, wait and see weather enthusiast like myself...


If this thing organizes enough, it could be a devastating rain event for where it could strike in Mexico... like Stan was. Not saying we'll see a hurricane (though it has a minimal chance at this rate of organization), but this thing has a pretty large envelope... and it's apparently growing.
Quoting 119. wunderkidcayman:



I did say most of the storms were ugly not all Alex was great Bonnie was ugly and Colin was ugly Colin being the ugliest

I don't think bonnie looked too bad during the second portion of her life
Looks like a convective blowup near the center is currently underway with 94L. Should see a depression sometime tomorrow
Quoting 90. Ed22:

It could be a tropical depression by 11pm or early Sunday morning. It has a high chance of becoming tropical storm Danielle Sunday evening...
Chances for sure will go up, Recon is going in tomorrow.
Quoting 121. Ed22:

Its getting their quickly than anticipated, wait and see weather enthusiast like myself...
Yes, and with it's future showing it taking a more northerly track over the BOC, it will gather strength more and more.
T.C.F.A
94L/INV/XX/CX


well I think we are on our way too the 4th name storm of the 2016 season 04L soon
Spin is getting more and more organized at the lowest levels, and convection is becoming rooted and sustaining over the center. This could be around 60-70% by tonight (8pm EDT), 80-90% by tomorrow morning (2am EDT) and then 100% by mid morning (8am EDT) tomorrow, then TD by 11am EDT.
130. IDTH
Quoting 128. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

T.C.F.A
94L/INV/XX/CX


well I think we are on our way too the 4th name storm of the 2016 season 04L soon

The models underestimated this one, like they do with most BOC storms.
Circulation is developing quickly now underneath the developing centralized convection.
There is a small MCV over New Orleans and adjacent SE LA.
I'm all in for 94L at this point. The ASCAT confirmed that there is a organized low level circulation. Despite somewhat unfavorable shear, I think this system won't have a problem becoming a tropical storm before it makes landfall sometimes Monday.

Rather impressive how the BOC topography enhances the ability of tropical waves to quickly close off.

Keep in mind this is a few hours old

You can see low level clouds increasing on the northeast quadrant of the developing surface circulation. This is indicative of a developing low level center and potential tropical cyclone, also convection taking on a more circular pattern indicative of shear impacting the low is very low at this time. However with the anticyclone displaced either to the north or southeast of the low, chances are better the further north it heads into lower wind shear for development.
138. IDTH
La Nina will occur this year


If 94L becomes Danielle it's the earliest 4th storm on record in the Atlantic. That is amazing to me and the pacific still has had nothing yet.
141. vis0
CREDIT::NAVY

Quoting 133. stormchasher:

I'm all in for 94L at this point. The ASCAT confirmed that there is a organized low level circulation. Despite somewhat unfavorable shear, I think this system won't have a problem becoming a tropical storm before it makes landfall sometimes Monday.

Rather impressive how the BOC topography enhances the ability of tropical waves to quickly close off.

Keep in mind this is a few hours old





Here's the image for that one. Logged into my ancient account

Quoting 139. WeatherkidJoe2323:

If 94L becomes Danielle it's the earliest 4th storm on record in the Atlantic. That is amazing to me and the pacific still has had nothing yet.
I have no doubt that we shall see our record no doubt at all in fact the Atlantic season itself on a whole may prove lots of records yet
I believe Danielle is with us by 5pm tomorrow after the 2pm flights by the Hurricane HUnters will find a tropical storm, the fourth named storm of the season, earliest on records.
Quoting 138. IDTH:

La Nina will occur this year




Subtropics are cooling, MDR and North Atlantic is warming, looking more +AMO than -AMO to me now.
This is likely already a TD or will be in the next few hours.
Quoting 147. Patrap:

Gom low cloud product loop GVAR


Need to remove the http for it to work
My guess is that they will go with 70%/70% at 8pm update. Just my guess based on current trends, though I would personally go 80%/80% ;)
Quoting 149. MeteorologistTV:

This is likely already a TD or will be in the next few hours.


Almost there, probably won't until there is confirmation by HHs.
Quoting 150. SunnyDaysFla:



Need to remove the http for it to work


Traveling and learning this kindle fire thingee
A lot of the stations and buoys in the southern GOM are reporting pressures near 1012mb and lowering.
Quoting 148. Patrap:

this one goes due west across the southern extreme of the BOC into Mexico
My percentages from earlier might need to be upgraded further to around 80% by 8pm EDT tonight actually. Large increase, BOC storms can do that to the best of us.
After a really blistering, oppressive heat week in Houston, eagerly awaiting a squall line moving in from Louisiana to water the okra and the new tomato plantings for fall. Watching 94L on Dvorak satellite, the burgeoning CDO around the center off the northwest Yucatan appears to be intensifying while remaining stationary. I don't write this disturbance off for South Texas.
Quoting 152. TheDawnAwakening:



Almost there, probably won't until there is confirmation by HHs.
NHC could call it whenever it wants to do so likely wait see how it goes next 6 hr or so and if it maintains and expands it overall coverage and appearance
The heat today in the Western suburbs of south FL was unbearable today. Had 96 degrees on the thermometer. Storms are very late to help this cool off, but I do hear some thunder now. This is mid august weather. Hope the whole summer is not like this
Taking the t tops off the new jeep safari as the dewpoint is more like September late behind this front.

Gawjus now...compare to awful august like yesterday.

Quoting 149. MeteorologistTV:

This is likely already a TD or will be in the next few hours.


Highly doubt it, needs to persist
Quoting 159. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

NHC could call it whenever it wants to do so likely wait see how it goes next 6 hr or so and if it maintains and expands it overall coverage and appearance


Oh I know they can designate at their own time, they usually wait for a HH, but given its in the BOC, initiation should come sooner rather than tomorrow.
Yet another invest. I have a feeling this year is going to be crazy for the Atlantic...
My prediction is that it will become a TD around 5AM or 11AM tomorrow and become a TS in the afternoon. However I could be wrong, this storm is shaping up quickly and it could develop even faster.
Quoting 162. Hurricanes101:



Highly doubt it, needs to persist


Should be given another six hours to persist than initiation in my opinion should occur.
POSS
T.C.F.A.
94L/INV/XX


light of the day fast disappearing only have another hr of visible light for sats to go
Quoting 127. Patrap:




its looking good expect the NHC to address this as a depression soon the banding features are ok and the circulation is evidently great. Note the track will shift slightly north because this is stationary and movement if any is more north so expect this track to shift should make landfall within the next 3 days
Quoting 161. Patrap:

Taking the t tops off the new jeep safari as the dewpoint is more like September late behind this front.

Gawjus now...compare to awful august like yesterday.


I see u well set too sortie out if need be later in late august
That outflow from earlier had a negative effect on development, but the low seems to have corrected that issue with some decent inflow starting to wrap around the southside of the low. System should be upgraded to a T.D.
Keeper..we have over 2.25 hours before sunset here..
Sunset 8:04 cdt
The most recent satellite loops are showing 94L really looking good, clouds and convection expanding.
We have an hour and 45 minutes before sunset here at 41N/69.99W
175. IDTH
This will probably be depression soon.
Needs to keep it up, certainly looks better than last night. Persistence is the key
Quoting 170. Patrap:

Keeper..we have over 2 hours before sunset here..
Sunset 8:04 cdt

I know but the sat images fade away before then
Convection is developing and a CDO is decent and sustaining itself. I wouldn't be surprised to see a strong TS/Cat 1 hurricane out of this system by landfall if it is stalled out and tracking northward some.
AMSU Microwave 89 GHz Imagery (4 km Mercator)

Quoting 171. Climate175:

The most recent satellite loops is showing 94L really looking good, clouds and convection expanding.



I agree, CDO feature starting to get less shear in the area too, next updated shear map should start to explain this more. 94L has a good circulation developed already and low level clouds are increasing over the center. Wind shear is showing to be more of a southerly direction as clouds are streaming south to north instead of southwest to northeast.
182. IDTH
Blog broken?
REQUIREMENTS FOR Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert
If a system gets 35 to 38 points, a TCFA may be issued depending on Dvorak trends, and if a system gets 39 points or more a TCFA should be issued.
Surface
Condition Points
A circulation is evident using visible satellite, shortwave infrared, microwave imagery or QuikSCAT/Windsat ambiguities 3 points
A circulation has been evident for at least 24 hours 5 points
A westerly surface- or gradient-level wind of 5 kt that is within 200 nm (370 km, 230 mi) south of the centre of the disturbance 5 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 20 kt 2 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 25 kt 3 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 30 kt 4 points
A weather station within 200 nm of the system has reported had a pressure drop of 2 mb over 24 hours 3 points
A weather station within 200 nm of the system has had a pressure drop of 3 mb over 24 hours 4 points
The estimated MSLP of the system is less than 1010 to 1009 mb 3 points
The estimated MSLP of the system is 1008 mb or less 4 points
500 mb height
Condition Points
There is evidence of at least an inverted trough 2 points
There is evidence of a closed circulation in the system 4 points
200 mb height
Condition Points
Westerly flow of at least 15 kt over the disturbance -4 points
There is evidence of anticyclonic outflow over the centre of the disturbance 4 points
Easterly flow of at most 20 kt over the disturbance 3 points
Sea surface temperature
Condition Points
The sea surface temperature is 26 Celsius (78.8 Fahrenheit) or higher 3 points
Satellite data
Condition Points
The system has persisted for at least 24 hours 3 points
The system has persisted for at least 48 hours 4 points
The system has persisted for at least 72 hours 5 points
The system has a Dvorak classification of T1.0 to T1.5 from all three agencies (TAFB, SAB, AFWA) 3 points
The system has a Dvorak classification of T1.5 to T2.0 from all three agencies 5 points
The Dvorak final-T number has decreased by T0.5 to T1.0 from two or more agencies -2 points
Miscellaneous
Condition Points
The cloud system is north (or south) of 5 degrees latitude 3 points
The tropical system is within 72 hours of reaching a Department of Defense resource 3 points
The cloud system center and the satellite centre fixes for the system are within 2 degrees of each other 2 points
*************************************************
GFS has been very good in the long range and bad in the short range

18Z long range shows a TS heading towards the Central Gulf on July 2nd
Ok lets see what the NHC has to say about it !!
Quoting 184. Hurricanes101:

GFS has been very good in the long range and bad in the short range

18Z long range shows a TS heading towards the Central Gulf on July 2nd
It was showing something coming out of the Caribbean in late June, dropped it a few runs, and now wants to bring it back.
Quoting 182. IDTH:

Blog broken?
just a blog sinkhole it has passed
Quoting 185. James1981cane:

Ok lets see what the NHC has to say about it !!



They will by 8pm EDT
Quoting 188. TheDawnAwakening:




They will by 8pm EDT
NHC usually posts the new outlook a bit before 8pm, it varies on how long it takes them because of the work they are doing.
Quoting 158. Houdude:

After a really blistering, oppressive heat week in Houston, eagerly awaiting a squall line moving in from Louisiana to water the okra and the new tomato plantings for fall. Watching 94L on Dvorak satellite, the burgeoning CDO around the center off the northwest Yucatan appears to be intensifying while remaining stationary. I don't write this disturbance off for South Texas.


Still moving through here. But it did knock temps down to what has been cool for overnight lately. Just the right amount of rain at my house. But it is really coming down other places around.

Current conditions at
Beaumont/Port Arthur Southeast Texas Regional Airport (KBPT)
Lat: 29.95°NLon: 94.03°WElev: 13ft.

Thunderstorm Rain and Breezy
76°F
24°C
Humidity 85%
Wind Speed E 23 G 33 mph
Barometer 30.03 in (1016.9 mb)
Dewpoint 71°F (22°C)
Visibility 0.25 mi
Heat Index 77°F (25°C)
Last update 18 Jun 5:53 pm CDT
as I was saying the light is dimming in the images
and it kinda gives off strange reflections as the angle of the sun drops further into the sky
over dev system

overall looking good real good
90 percent chance for development at 8 pm I say


POSS
T.C.F.A.
94L/INV/XX
Quoting 191. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

as I was saying the light is dimming in the images
and it kinda gives off strange reflections as the angle of the sun drops further into the sky
over dev system

overall looking good real good
90 percent chance for development at 8 pm I say


POSS
T.C.F.A.
94L/INV/XX



Shear having a bit of an impact though as the blob of convection is being sheared a bit towards the NE while the center moves slowly westward
Quoting 184. Hurricanes101:

GFS has been very good in the long range and bad in the short range

18Z long range shows a TS heading towards the Central Gulf on July 2nd


looks nasty if it comes to be
194. MahFL
Quoting 171. Climate175:

The most recent satellite loops is showing 94L really looking good, clouds and convection expanding.


Cloudtops are warming though...
195. Tcwx2
It has a ways to go.
Quoting 149. MeteorologistTV:

This is likely already a TD or will be in the next few hours.
60% at 8pm, good call by the NHC

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large low pressure system located over the eastern Bay of Campeche
about 60 miles north-northeast of Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico, is
producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized showers and
thunderstorms
over much of the Yucatan peninsula and adjacent waters
of the Bay of Campeche, southern Gulf of Mexico, and northwestern
Caribbean Sea. The low has been nearly stationary during the past
several hours, but it is forecast to move west-northwestward to
westward at around 10 mph across the Bay of Campeche the next couple
of days before moving inland over eastern Mexico. Satellite-derived
winds and surface observations indicate that the low has developed a
well-defined center of circulation. Although upper-level winds are
only marginally conducive, gradual development of this system is
expected and a tropical depression could form during the next day or
so. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the low Sunday afternoon, if necessary. For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service are
available under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml .

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Quoting 194. MahFL:



Cloudtops are warming though...


Expected during this time of the day as diurnal minimum comes to pass, dMax will come and it will be up and perky.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large low pressure system located over the eastern Bay of Campeche
about 60 miles north-northeast of Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico, is
producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over much of the Yucatan peninsula and adjacent waters
of the Bay of Campeche, southern Gulf of Mexico, and northwestern
Caribbean Sea. The low has been nearly stationary during the past
several hours, but it is forecast to move west-northwestward to
westward at around 10 mph across the Bay of Campeche the next couple
of days before moving inland over eastern Mexico. Satellite-derived
winds and surface observations indicate that the low has developed a
well-defined center of circulation. Although upper-level winds are
only marginally conducive, gradual development of this system is
expected and a tropical depression could form during the next day or
so. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the low Sunday afternoon, if necessary. For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

&&
$$
Forecaster Stewart
Quoting 197. TheDawnAwakening:



Expected during this time of the day as diurnal minimum comes to pass, dMax will come and it will be up and perky.


Also being sheared off to the NE too and still not that well organized. It is trending in the right direction, but it will not be classified tonight
000
ABNT20 KNHC 182316
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large low pressure system located over the eastern Bay of Campeche
about 60 miles north-northeast of Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico, is
producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over much of the Yucatan peninsula and adjacent waters
of the Bay of Campeche, southern Gulf of Mexico, and northwestern
Caribbean Sea. The low has been nearly stationary during the past
several hours, but it is forecast to move west-northwestward to
westward at around 10 mph across the Bay of Campeche the next couple
of days before moving inland over eastern Mexico. Satellite-derived
winds and surface observations indicate that the low has developed a
well-defined center of circulation. Although upper-level winds are
only marginally conducive, gradual development of this system is
expected and a tropical depression could form during the next day or
so. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the low Sunday afternoon, if necessary. For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent
201. Tcwx2
60/60.
TWOs always come in threes...
Quoting 196. Hurricanes101:

60% at 8pm, good call by the NHC


I'm a bit surprised it isn't higher, but I expect that the convection needs to persist instead of being pulse type like it is right now it needs to sustain itself better.
Quoting 203. TheDawnAwakening:



I'm a bit surprised it isn't higher, but I expect that the convection needs to persist instead of being pulse type like it is right now it needs to sustain itself better.


I have been talking about persistence all afternoon lol
205. Ed22
Quoting 114. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I think the prospects for Tropical Storm Danielle are around 80% at this point. Visible satellite loops show a low-level circulation in its formative stages, aided by the wind flow around the mountains that line the coastline of the Bay of Campeche (see Dr. Masters' comment a bit further down for a specific genesis example). Convection is flaring atop this circulation. Wind shear is moderate, some dry air is evident, and time is limited, so the chances for a hurricane appear low; that said, a weak to moderate tropical storm is very possible before landfall along the coastline of Mexico in 2 days or so.


wow thats Danielle in the making...
Quoting 201. Tcwx2:

60/60.
they enforcing the 12hr persistence rule I guess after all it only just started to get some convection the last few hrs and become better defined but its getting there see how it goes into the early evening
207. Ed22
Quoting 204. Hurricanes101:



I have been saying that all afternoon lol
its in the making so it will take a little time in sustaining its convection...
Quoting 206. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

they enforcing the 12hr persistence rule I guess after all it only just started to get some convection the last few hrs and become better defined but its getting there see how it goes into the early evening


Surface winds don't support a closed circulation at the moment, but that may soon change.
209. Ed22
Quoting 206. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

they enforcing the 12hr persistence rule I guess after all it only just started to get some convection the last few hrs and become better defined but its getting there see how it goes into the early evening
That right but does it not always work though correct if i'm wrong...
Pea sized hail here in the Heights, Houston.
Quoting 208. daddyjames:



Surface winds don't support a closed circulation at the moment, but that may soon change.

I think the NHC disagrees with you: Satellite-derived
winds and surface observations indicate that the low has developed a
well-defined center of circulation.
The odds we get Danielle at this point are high.
Quoting 211. tiggerhurricanes2001:


I think the NHC disagrees with you: Satellite-derived
winds and surface observations indicate that the low has developed a
well-defined center of circulation.


Just needs to sustain its centralized convection more.
Quoting 211. tiggerhurricanes2001:


I think the NHC disagrees with you: Satellite-derived
winds and surface observations indicate that the low has developed a
well-defined center of circulation.


Yup they do.
Warning Warning Warning Will Robinson! I felt raindrops!! Warning Warning Warning!

216. Ed22
Quoting 208. daddyjames:



Surface winds don't support a closed circulation at the moment, but that may soon change.
Its soon be closed...
Quoting 210. RitaandIke:

Pea sized hail here in the Heights, Houston.


Raindrops in Soo Cal!
Quoting 215. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Warning Warning Warning Will Robinson! I felt raindrops!! Warning Warning Warning!




warning warning its the end of the earth warning warning
Quoting 211. tiggerhurricanes2001:


I think the NHC disagrees with you: Satellite-derived
winds and surface observations indicate that the low has developed a
well-defined center of circulation.


well defined and closed are 2 different things
Quoting 212. KoritheMan:

The odds we get Danielle at this point are high.


Im a liking your kinda thinking young man!
Quoting 217. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Raindrops in Soo Cal!


0.40" just that quick here. That's about like monthly total for you isn't it?
222. Ed22
Quoting 214. daddyjames:



Yup they do.
So very well then Danielle is few hours alway...
70/70 imo. Low-level convergence is decent (albeit the upper flow is not optimal), and if it can develop such a robust circulation overland, it can certainly keep that up so close to the Gulf. Also, the Bay of Campeche is a hotspot for quick cyclone spinups due to inland mountains amplifying the spin.
Quoting 214. daddyjames:



Yup they do.
Quoting 219. Hurricanes101:



well defined and closed are 2 different things

My apologies. Good point. But my thinking is that it's either closed now, or very close to it.
Quoting 219. Hurricanes101:



well defined and closed are 2 different things


Half of the LLC is still over land, and under 25-30 kts of shear. Has to move a bit more to the west/northwest before it'll be able to put up any amount of convection.
Quoting 224. tiggerhurricanes2001:


My apologies. Good point. But my thinking is that it's either closed now, or very close to it.


Didn't I say that in my first post? ;)
94L only lacks convective organization to become the next tropical cyclone.
Quoting 227. Drakoen:

94L only lacks convective organization to become the next tropical cyclone.


I suspect recon will find a tropical depression tomorrow when they go out. Might even develop into one overnight if it emerges into the water by then. Dmax can do wonders.
Quoting 220. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Im a liking your kinda thinking young man!


You better be. It took awhile to build this mountain of marvel you see standing before you. ;)
Quoting 222. Ed22:

So very well then Danielle is few hours alway...


If it becomes Danielle, it won't be until late Sunday/Monday as it nears the coast of Mexico (well the western side of the Bay of Campeche)
Quoting 230. daddyjames:



If it becomes Danielle, it won't be until late Sunday/Monday as it nears the coast of Mexico.
Yeah it does not have TS force winds right now, at least not yet
232. Ed22
Quoting 220. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Im a liking your kinda thinking young man!
I think so too i'm declaring Tropical storm Danielle at 11pm/10pm... What say you weather enthusiast? like myself...
POSS
T.C.F.A
94L/INV/XX


15 MINS OLD
234. Ed22
Quoting 231. HurricaneFan:

Yeah it does not have TS force winds right now, at least not yet
It in developing fase now not far away though...
Quoting 232. Ed22:

I think so too i'm declaring Tropical storm Danielle at 11pm/10pm... What say you weather enthusiast? like myself...

It's not a TS yet there is no way winds increased to 40 mph yet
Quoting 234. Ed22:

It in developing fase now not far away though...


It physically can't generate tropical storm force winds at the surface without more persistent convection. Granted I think this is the beginning of tropical cyclogenesis, but the process itself still takes time.
Quoting 232. Ed22:

I think so too i'm declaring Tropical storm Danielle at 11pm/10pm... What say you weather enthusiast? like myself...


maybe not ed
lets check like at midnight see how it looks then
it will be 8 maybe 9 hrs of full persistence and still gaining and improving appearance
then I say it will get re numbered to 04L
sunset now or soon then we only have ir for sat info till first light
240. Ed22
Quoting 230. daddyjames:



If it becomes Danielle, it won't be until late Sunday/Monday as it nears the coast of Mexico (well the western side of the Bay of Campeche)
Its very close that is...
Quoting 227. Drakoen:

94L only lacks convective organization to become the next tropical cyclone.

Of course, to play Devil's advocate, it's as organized as Colin ever was. ;)
Quoting 222. Ed22:

So very well then Danielle is few hours alway...


you are jumping the gun, convection is still not all that well organized and is getting sheared to the NE
It's still partly over land right? Should be able to put on some nice bursts of convection tonight as the entire system moves over the ~29C water. It's organising well despite land interaction/moderate shear and dry air. Should organise better once land interaction stops, it gets fully over 29-30C water and convective bursts should help it deal with dry air. Not to mention the BOC itself should aid it in spinning up. Wind shear should relax a little before it makes landfall as well.

I think it's highly likely we'll see TS Danielle form from 94L (80/90%).
Quoting 221. RitaandIke:



0.40" just that quick here. That's about like monthly total for you isn't it?


Some months 0.40 is a good month............I been here when it hasn't rained for 2,3,4, months at a time
246. Ed22
Quoting 235. HurricaneFan:


It's not a TS yet there is no way winds increased to 40 mph yet
if so though you'll thank me and others as well...
Quoting 246. Ed22:

if so though you'll thank me and others as well...


No I won't because if you were right, it'd only be coincidentally.
Quoting 240. Ed22:

Its very close that is...


If 24/36 hours is close . . . I'll agree with you. Not as optimistic as others are regarding a TS to form. What it does have going for it is its slow crawl across the BOC and diminishing shear as it moves into the western side of the BOC.
Quoting 248. daddyjames:



If 24/36 hours is close . . . I'll agree with you. Not as optimistic as others are regarding a TS to form. What it does have going for it is its slow crawl across the BOC and diminishing shear as it moves into the western side of the BOC.


I do think we get Danielle out of this, but too many on here are jumping the gun saying it will be a TD or TS by 11pm tonight when it is still organizing. I can see it being classified when recon goes out tomorrow though

Quoting 248. daddyjames:



If 24/36 hours is close . . . I'll agree with you. Not as optimistic as others are regarding a TS to form. What it does have going for it is its slow crawl across the BOC and diminishing shear as it moves into the western side of the BOC.
Last year with Bill, iirc the GFS and ECMWF were only showing like one closed isobar even as it was actually forming; they aren't explicit intensity guidance, and in regions like the Bay of Campeche where small cyclones are common, they are sometimes going to miss things. Coupled with the BoC's statistical propensity (see any of Masters' blogs on any of the recent slew of Bay of Campeche storms in recent years) for developing tropical cyclones, and I think there's more of a case for a tropical storm than not.
253. Ed22
Quoting 244. Envoirment:

It's still partly over land right? Should be able to put on some nice bursts of convection tonight as the entire system moves over the ~29C water. It's organising well despite land interaction/moderate shear and dry air. Should organise better once land interaction stops, it gets fully over 29-30C water and convective bursts should help it deal with dry air. Not to mention the BOC itself should aid it in spinning up. Wind shear should relax a little before it makes landfall as well.

I think it's highly likely we'll see TS Danielle form from 94L (80/90%).
very well good, i'm optimistic I put it higher 90/100% by 2am/1am early Sunday morning...
Quoting 249. unknowncomic:


track is good with this and moderate tropical storm may be pushing it but it could even get too strong tropical storm force before land interaction west of it starts messing it up at the end of it final landfall point a double peak sorta kinda
AL, 94, 2016061900, , BEST, 0, 196N, 917W, 25, 1009, LO
Quoting 245. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Some months 0.40 is a good month............I been here when it hasn't rained for 2,3,4, months at a time



You and Pedley are in a dry area for sure.
2011 was like that here in Texas and adjacent areas.
Quoting 252. KoritheMan:

Last year with Bill, iirc the GFS and ECMWF were only showing like one closed isobar even as it was actually forming; they aren't explicit intensity guidance, and in regions like the Bay of Campeche where small cyclones are common, they are sometimes going to miss things. Coupled with the BoC's statistical propensity (see any of Masters' blogs on any of the recent slew of Bay of Campeche storms in recent years) for developing tropical cyclones, and I think there's more of a case for a tropical storm than not.

It might . . . I think it'll depend on how slow it moves, and how large the circulation is once it moves away from the Yucatan. I think it'll definitely become a TD, but give it 40/60 shot at reaching any sustained TS winds at this moment. Either way, the earliest it'll happen is tomorrow afternoon.
We'll have an indication tomorrow morning as to how well it may be doing by whether or not the NHC goes ahead with any recon.
Quoting 241. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Of course, to play Devil's advocate, it's as organized as Colin ever was. ;)


Only if you are counting the convection in Louisiana
Quoting 258. daddyjames:



Only if you are counting the convection in Louisiana


Hey now, that convection is a tropical storm in all but name only. Show some respect! :P
nighty night 94l see ya in first light


POSS
T.C.F.A.
94L/INV/XX/
261. Ed22
Quoting 251. Hurricanes101:



I do think we get Danielle out of this, but too many on here are jumping the gun saying it will be a TD or TS by 11pm tonight when it is still organizing. I can see it being classified when recon goes out tomorrow though
I disagree with you some-what we will get Danielle out of invest 94L, if not to night early Sunday morning before Reconnaissance aircraft gets their tomorrow afternoon...

AMSU Microwave 89 GHz Imagery (4 km Mercator

Quoting 261. Ed22:

I disagree with you some-what we will get Danielle out of invest 94L, if not to night early Sunday morning before Reconnaissance aircraft gets their tomorrow afternoon...


There is really no evidence of that occuring. The convection is still being sheared to the East and Northeast and not continuing to organize.
I went back and read today's blog and didn't see this question asked. Is there any way to tell if we are going to have an above average hurricane season, with more than likely having 4 named storms before July 1st? Is there any way to know if these future TC's will be more intense based off what we have already seen?
HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2230 UTC SAT JUN 18 2016

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC SAT JUN 18.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC SUN JUN 19.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC MON JUN 20.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.


.GULF OF MEXICO 12 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 20N93W 1010 MB.
TROUGH FROM LOW CENTER TO 22N95W. E OF TROUGH TO 24N BETWEEN 90W
AND 95W E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
21N95W 1009 MB. TROUGH FROM LOW CENTER TO 22N96W. FROM 21N TO
24N BETWEEN 90W AND 96W E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10
FT. WITHIN 90 NM SW SEMICIRCLE NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS
THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
22N97W 1010 MB. FROM 22N TO 25N W OF 94W E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25
KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

I'd have to agree the next TD is probably on the way. May peak as a weak tropical storm. It's facing basically every limiting factor possible- land, time, shear, dry air- but there's something special about that spot in the BOC. The HWRF and GFDL were both run at the 18z cycle, neither developed 94L much at all, so that increases confidence that it will remain weak, since those models possess the resolution to sniff out a quick developing storm in that tight space.

It's also fun trying to sort out, or watch the blog sort out, diurnally driven convection from what's actually associated with the invest. Hint: It's mostly diurnal.

Quoting 265. scott39:

I went back and read today's blog and didn't see this question asked. Is there any way to tell if we are going to have an above average hurricane season, with more than likely having 4 named storms before July 1st? Is there any way to know if these future TC's will be more intense based off what we have already seen?
well storms always get more intense as we progress into late august till sometimes early November how many and if above average well there is really no way of knowing only an estimate can be given even that is really null and void anyway
Quoting 268. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

well storms always get more intense as we progress into late august till sometimes early November how many and if above average well there is really no way of knowing only an estimate can be given even that is really null and void anyway
Thanks, Are we looking at an unusual amount of TC's before July 1st, based on past history?
270. Ed22
Quoting 260. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

nighty night 94l see ya in first light


POSS
T.C.F.A.
94L/INV/XX/

It very close to become one of the earliest D storm on record... Tropical storm is on its way though, however its not moving much though; isn't it weather enthusiast?
convection is not very well organized right now. 94L doing well in terms of improving it's structure, but conditions are marginal for development as you can see the impacts the shear is having on the system. Id say we have a shot to have a TD when recon flies in tomorrow, but 94L has to get completely into the BOC and do a better job of organizing its convection and making it persist.
Quoting 267. MAweatherboy1:

I'd have to agree the next TD is probably on the way. May peak as a weak tropical storm. It's facing basically every limiting factor possible- land, time, shear, dry air- but there's something special about that spot in the BOC. The HWRF and GFDL were both run at the 18z cycle, neither developed 94L much at all, so that increases confidence that it will remain weak, since those models possess the resolution to sniff out a quick developing storm in that tight space.

It's also fun trying to sort out, or watch the blog sort out, diurnally driven convection from what's actually associated with the invest. Hint: It's mostly diurnal.


Just part of the routine. :)
273. Ed22
Quoting 267. MAweatherboy1:

I'd have to agree the next TD is probably on the way. May peak as a weak tropical storm. It's facing basically every limiting factor possible- land, time, shear, dry air- but there's something special about that spot in the BOC. The HWRF and GFDL were both run at the 18z cycle, neither developed 94L much at all, so that increases confidence that it will remain weak, since those models possess the resolution to sniff out a quick developing storm in that tight space.

It's also fun trying to sort out, or watch the blog sort out, diurnally driven convection from what's actually associated with the invest. Hint: It's mostly diurnal.


thorought tonight it organised more...
Quoting 267. MAweatherboy1:

I'd have to agree the next TD is probably on the way. May peak as a weak tropical storm. It's facing basically every limiting factor possible- land, time, shear, dry air- but there's something special about that spot in the BOC. The HWRF and GFDL were both run at the 18z cycle, neither developed 94L much at all, so that increases confidence that it will remain weak, since those models possess the resolution to sniff out a quick developing storm in that tight space.

It's also fun trying to sort out, or watch the blog sort out, diurnally driven convection from what's actually associated with the invest. Hint: It's mostly diurnal.



?

Instability is at its lowest point around this time of the day. Convection is more likely to be suppressed than enhanced. The ongoing convection isn't struggling because of diurnal changes, it's struggling because of shear and dry air.
I see all excitment over a possible storm that's not even going to effect us lol
Quoting 275. TropicalAnalystwx13:


?

Instability is at its lowest point around this time of the day. Convection is more likely to be suppressed than enhanced. The ongoing convection isn't struggling because of diurnal changes, it's struggling because of shear and dry air.


Me has a feeling there will be a lot of disappointed people in the morning lol
Quoting 265. scott39:

I went back and read today's blog and didn't see this question asked. Is there any way to tell if we are going to have an above average hurricane season, with more than likely having 4 named storms before July 1st? Is there any way to know if these future TC's will be more intense based off what we have already seen?


Ignore anyone saying below average; actual NS should be quite high at this point. ACE (intensity) is another story, but I don't think the Atlantic SST profile is as deleterious as people keep pretending. It's not optimal, but it's enough to generate a couple of major hurricanes.
Deep deep watch. Caution is advised.

:-P
281. ackee
If 94L become Danielle 2016 would continue to be way ahead of other seasons poll time base on the amount of activity we have seen so far what do u think we see far the rest of the season ?

A. Above average season
B slightly above average
C average season
D. Below average
Quoting 282. Patrap:




It's like the convection hit a brick wall
Quoting 279. KoritheMan:



Ignore anyone saying below average; actual NS should be quite high at this point. ACE (intensity) is another story, but I don't think the Atlantic SST profile is as deleterious as people keep pretending. It's not optimal, but it's enough to generate a couple of major hurricanes.
286. Ed22
Quoting 271. Hurricanes101:

convection is not very well organized right now. 94L doing well in terms of improving it's structure, but conditions are marginal for development as you can see the impacts the shear is having on the system. Id say we have a shot to have a TD when recon flies in tomorrow, but 94L has to get completely into the BOC and do a better job of organizing its convection and making it persist.
Your right but shear is forecast to relax to about 10 to 20 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours, so its chances are high...
Quoting 283. Hurricanes101:



It's like the convection hit a brick wall

It's likely temporary. Likely still diurnal effects, but since it's a little farther offshore, i suspect some new convection will be developing within the next 6 hours. Dry air will still be an impediment.
Thanks Kori, I'm shaking the dust off for the new season and playing catch up. 4 storms before July.....What do you think?
Quoting 286. Ed22:

Your right but shear is forecast to relax to about 10 to 20 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours, so its chances are high...


problem is the anticyclone to the south is moving in tandem with the system which is going to continue the shear
291. Tcwx2
Agreed!!
Quoting 278. Hurricanes101:



Me has a feeling there will be a lot of disappointed people in the morning lol
>we hear(here) you Viso
Quoting 275. TropicalAnalystwx13:


?

Instability is at its lowest point around this time of the day. Convection is more likely to be suppressed than enhanced. The ongoing convection isn't struggling because of diurnal changes, it's struggling because of shear and dry air.

I think you misunderstood me; I'm talking about diurnally driven convection over land. Yes, convection associated with 94L is diurnally suppressed now. It's easy, if not familiar with the situation, to mistake heating of the day thunderstorms over the Yucatan for 94L convection.
GFS has nature sending us a early independence day gift (for entertainment purposes).We may be able to claim our independence from Aliens but definitely not from nature :)
Quoting 256. RitaandIke:



You and Pedley are in a dry area for sure.
2011 was like that here in Texas and adjacent areas.

Last 90 days here are .63 of rain. Joe does better down South. I am within miles of the extreme drought zone. Hot today, 94.7F....
A few hours ago: Danielle is here, it will be named tonight!
Now: Maybe not, shear and dry air are in the way...

Just the typical experience of tracking a tropical cyclone.
Quoting 296. HurricaneFan:

A few hours ago: Danielle is here!p, it will be named tonight!
Now: Maybe not, shear and dry air are in the way...

Just the typical experience of tracking a tropical cyclone.


mainly the differing opinions. Danielle was never really here or going to be classified tonight. The convection had not persisted enough to that point for that to happen.
Quoting 296. HurricaneFan:

A few hours ago: Danielle is here, it will be named tonight!
Now: Maybe not, shear and dry air are in the way...

Just the typical experience of tracking a tropical cyclone.

THANK YOU!!! Lol, just typical experience, typical waning and building of convection.
299. Ed22
Quoting 281. ackee:

If 94L become Danielle 2016 would continue to be way ahead of other seasons poll time base on the amount of activity we have seen so far what do u think we see far the rest of the season ?

A. Above average season
B slightly above average
C average season
D. Below average

A. Above average...
Very large surface circulation envelope.........still not organized....... let's see if it can get it together.....I want a record setting D storm before the 23rd.

Quoting 293. MAweatherboy1:


I think you misunderstood me; I'm talking about diurnally driven convection over land. Yes, convection associated with 94L is diurnally suppressed now. It's easy, if not familiar with the situation, to mistake heating of the day thunderstorms over the Yucatan for 94L convection.

Gotcha.

Quoting 279. KoritheMan:



Ignore anyone saying below average; actual NS should be quite high at this point. ACE (intensity) is another story, but I don't think the Atlantic SST profile is as deleterious as people keep pretending. It's not optimal, but it's enough to generate a couple of major hurricanes.

I feel confident about my 17-9-4.
Quoting 281. ackee:

If 94L become Danielle 2016 would continue to be way ahead of other seasons poll time base on the amount of activity we have seen so far what do u think we see far the rest of the season ?

A. Above average season
B slightly above average
C average season
D. Below average


A. Above average, but probably not hyperactive.
Was 92 at my place today...............cloudy half the day and even had a few raindrops from this area of clouds......maybe a few more coming tonight.

Quoting 301. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Gotcha.


I feel confident about my 17-9-4.

I see you got 4 major hurricanes Cody. I assume the majority of them will be in the peak in August/September? My numbers are 16-7-3
305. Ed22
Quoting 298. tiggerhurricanes2001:


THANK YOU!!! Lol, just typical experience, typical waning and building of convection.
yeah at 11pm/10pm eastern time...
306. beell
Why the BOC gets storms and Tampa doesn't.



;-)

101F@KRAL, 97@Indian Hills PWS, 94.7F here at my place...
308. beell
309. Ed22
Quoting 304. wunderweatherman123:


I see you got 4 major hurricanes Cody. I assume the majority of them will be in the peak in August/September? My numbers are 16-7-3
My number are 20/ 9/ 5...
310. Ed22
Quoting 308. beell:


Let give it a chance to rebuild convection
311. Ed22
Quoting 306. beell:

Why the BOC gets storms and Tampa doesn't.



;-)


Good...
Quoting 306. beell:

Why the BOC gets storms and Tampa doesn't.



;-)



you can just as easily re-draw the arrow heads on the other side of the line and get the opposite result
313. beell

06/18 18Z GFS 200 mb heights, winds @ 33 hrs (10PM CDT Sunday)
Quoting 312. all4hurricanes:


you can just as easily re-draw the arrow heads on the other side of the line and get the opposite result

No, you can't. Because storms move. And Florida doesn't have mountains.
The poor structure owing to dmin suggests that tropical cyclogenesis will not occur tonight. If it gets a good dmax overnight, it will get named tomorrow imo.
I am going to upgrade my numbers to 21/8/4. If July continues with above activity then I dont see why can´t we reach the last letter of the alphabet for the season.
Quoting 316. allancalderini:

I am going to upgrade my numbers to 21/8/4. If July continues with above activity then I dont see why can´t we reach the last letter of the alphabet for the season.


What about busting out the ole Greek Alphabet
Quoting 315. KoritheMan:

The poor structure owing to dmin suggests that tropical cyclogenesis will not occur tonight. If it gets a good dmax overnight, it will get named tomorrow imo.


agreed
319. Ed22
Quoting 313. beell:


06/18 18Z GFS 200 mb heights, winds @ 33 hrs (10PM CDT Sunday)
That area between The Bahamas Island Bermuda could be our next invest 95L early this week while Danielle take aim at Mexico... No worries about 94L tonight, but intense convection will be re-building soon tonight to early morning... Bye, bye weather enthusiast see you on this blog early tomorrow morning, get some sleep tomorrow will busy for us and the Reconnaissance Aircraft also the NHC...
Quoting 276. Accu3535:

I see all excitment over a possible storm that's not even going to effect us lol


I know, right? It's almost like we're interested in watching the dynamics of tropical cyclongenesis and not solely whether or not they hit us. Who'd have thought?
94L and dry air--which describes it better?

This?



or this?



The Florida gulf coast between Apalachicola and Tampa does have a cyclonic curvature when a storm approaches from the southwest.
Quoting 321. BaltimoreBrian:

94L and dry air--which describes it better?

This?



or this?






that convection went poof
Quoting 314. jeffs713:


No, you can't. Because storms move. And Florida doesn't have mountains.

And the BOC is more closed and the curve is more pronounced than the Florida coast
Is a possible a Derecho is trying to get going in NE montana? It is not very common to see Severe Thunderstorm Watches posted for whole states in such a narrow band such as in ND and I imagine N. MN as time goes on
326. beell
Quoting 322. BaltimoreBrian:

The Florida gulf coast between Apalachicola and Tampa does have a cyclonic curvature when a storm approaches from the southwest.


I guess my attempt at weather geek humor was a fail...
:)
Canada has issued watches well East as well and did so hours ago
You actually had me there for a minute beell :)
Quoting 326. beell:



I guess my attempt at weather geek humor was a fail...
:)


Not for this wugeek...
Quoting 316. allancalderini:

I am going to upgrade my numbers to 21/8/4. If July continues with above activity then I dont see why can´t we reach the last letter of the alphabet for the season.

21? dang lol lets see... i believe in 16-6-3
Giving 94L a 10 / 10 chance now. Development seems unlikely now.
Quoting 326. beell:



I guess my attempt at weather geek humor was a fail...
:)


Don't worry, boobless always gets me laughing. And I wasn't even around for that.

:P
Hmmm....ever since I saw that 94L was spinning up further west away from its upper ridge (instead of staying closer) it seemed to me 94L was gonna struggle with some westerly shear...and indeed tonight 94L remains unimpressive. Will keep watching it though....but I've lowered my expectations a bit on 94L. Also the western Atlantic frontal system looks less like it will become a subtropical cyclone.

Just completed my 41st blog post of the season with more thoughts on 94L and the western Atlantic frontal system...
Quoting 331. HurricaneAndre:

Giving 94L a 10 / 10 chance now. Development seems unlikely now.


Andre, you aren't giving the storm a fair chance.
Wind Shear! Dry air! We still have both? These have been our guardian angels for 3 years, That and steering currents recurring them out to sea. I suppose this makes the La Niña watch so important. I believe, but do not completely understand that La Niña will have some affect on the wind shear. Maybe the dry air also.

If so that would make the La Niña watch very important.

If I ever see a report that wind shear is zero and the area is filled with warm moist air, my brain will be shouting in Scotty's voice, "The shields are down Captain."


Cheers
Qazulight
Quoting 301. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Gotcha.


I feel confident about my 17-9-4.


As well as my 16-8-3, I think
Quoting 334. Astrometeor:



Andre, you aren't giving the storm a fair chance.
With that look, the way shear and dry air is, you won't get nothing out there. Let's just wait two weeks when the real mjo pulse comes in ok bro.
Quoting 338. HurricaneAndre:

With that look, the way shear and dry air is, you won't get nothing out there. Let's just wait two weeks when the real mjo pulse comes in ok bro.


The MJO pulse will come in earlier than that in about 7 to 10 days
Convection is developing in bands now for 94L, this will likely become Danielle and the East Coast low will likely become the E storm in around 3-4 days before the next trough takes it out to sea.
Quoting 338. HurricaneAndre:

With that look, the way shear and dry air is, you won't get nothing out there. Let's just wait two weeks when the real mjo pulse comes in ok bro.


yea this system is not looking healthy at all right now. No convection is firing close to the center and we are only about 4 hours from DMAX. NHC will likely keep the chances at 60/60, but I would not be shocked if they dropped it slightly. 94L has to do a lot or recon will be cancelled.
they bumped it up to 70/70. Not sure I am seeing it, the system has almost no convection.

Guess we will see in the morning
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large low pressure system, centered over the central Bay of
Campeche about 300 miles east-southeast of Tuxpan, Mexico, is
producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over much of the Bay of Campeche, southern Gulf of
Mexico, and the Yucatan peninsula. The low is moving westward to
west-northwestward at around 10 mph and is forecast to reach the
coast of eastern Mexico on Monday. Although upper-level winds are
only marginally conducive, a tropical depression is still expected
to form during the next day or so. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this afternoon,
if necessary. For additional information on this system, see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent
94L is now up to high 70/70%

TD expected soon
Quoting 344. wunderkidcayman:

94L is now up to high 70/70%

TD expected soon


A Naked TD lol

Doubt it, circulation is well defined, but there is no convection building near the center and has not had any for several hours.
Also, by the looks of the shortwave loops, the circulation is halfway across the BOC already. Might not have as much time as originally thought, but we will see.
Quoting 345. Hurricanes101:



A Naked TD lol

Doubt it, circulation is well defined, but there is no convection building near the center and has not had any for several hours.


Just give it some time Dmax soon be upon it

Convection will rebuild you just need to be patient
Quoting 345. Hurricanes101:



A Naked TD lol

Doubt it, circulation is well defined, but there is no convection building near the center and has not had any for several hours.
Convection is not that much of a problem, it can come and go as quickly. A good DMAX will help it push it to td or ts status today. I would had been more worried if it had a terrible circulation but it have a good one.
Quoting 347. wunderkidcayman:



Just give it some time Dmax soon be upon it

Convection will rebuild you just need to be patient


it will need to persist. It was also building yesterday and people were ready to claim it was going to be a TD tonight, then the convection fell apart and has yet to rebuild.

It is going to have to start building convection very soon or there will be no recon.
Quoting 348. allancalderini:

Convection is not that much of a problem, it can come and go as quickly. A good DMAX will help it push it to td or ts status today. I would had been more worried if it had a terrible circulation but it have a good one.


problem with that line of thought is that part of the definition the NHC uses to classify systems is that convection has to persist. 94L has not done that yet
AL, 94, 2016061906, , BEST, 0, 199N, 930W, 25, 1009, LO
Quoting 319. Ed22:

That area between The Bahamas Island Bermuda could be our next invest 95L early this week while Danielle take aim at Mexico... No worries about 94L tonight, but intense convection will be re-building soon tonight to early morning... Bye, bye weather enthusiast see you on this blog early tomorrow morning, get some sleep tomorrow will busy for us and the Reconnaissance Aircraft also the NHC... Wow, everyone says Amen
Quoting 314. jeffs713:


No, you can't. Because storms move. And Florida doesn't have mountains.

Storms move in the opposite direction as the arrows, and if Florida doesn't have mountains why would there be an anti-cyclonic effect that impedes development? I'm not saying the Bay of Campeche doesn't lend a geographical assist to TC development but to simplify the effect to mspaint arrows and then hastily apply it to other locations is incorrect
354. Ed22
Quoting 351. Hurricanes101:

AL, 94, 2016061906, , BEST, 0, 199N, 930W, 25, 1009, LO
Pressure is at 1009 mbs this could drop more by day light as the System (94L) convection increases...
355. Ed22
Quoting 340. TheDawnAwakening:

Convection is developing in bands now for 94L, this will likely become Danielle and the East Coast low will likely become the E storm in around 3-4 days before the next trough takes it out to sea.
your right Danielle and Earl will eariest storm in June here...
356. Ed22
Quoting 346. Hurricanes101:

Also, by the looks of the shortwave loops, the circulation is halfway across the BOC already. Might not have as much time as originally thought, but we will see.
94L moving slowly between 5 to 10 mph so this particular system time on its side, however we would have a problem with it; if it moving much faster, let say about 15 to 20 mph time wouldn't be on its side then; would it weather enthusiasts? Good morning everyone...
357. Ed22
Quoting 348. allancalderini:

Convection is not that much of a problem, it can come and go as quickly. A good DMAX will help it push it to td or ts status today. I would had been more worried if it had a terrible circulation but it have a good one.
Convection is steadily increasing just be patient...
358. Ed22
Quoting 353. all4hurricanes:


Storms move in the opposite direction as the arrows, and if Florida doesn't have mountains why would there be an anti-cyclonic effect that impedes development? I'm not saying the Bay of Campeche doesn't lend a geographical assist to TC development but to simplify the effect to mspaint arrows and then hastily apply it to other locations is incorrect
Good point their...
94L is firing up convection burst around COC. Count down will now begin.
looks as if a cyclone is forming in the boc
DMAX.

362. Ed22
Quoting 361. MAweatherboy1:

DMAX.


Yes convection are on the increase and organising too with Invest 94L, 90%/90% at 8am/7am...
363. Ed22
Quoting 361. MAweatherboy1:

DMAX.


Dmax at work; enlighten on this particular Word Dmax, what does it mean weather enthusiast.
Quoting 362. Ed22:

Yes convection are on the increase and organising too with Invest 94L, 90%/90% at 8am/7am...



Nothing new at 8am
365. Ed22
Quoting 360. islander101010:

looks as if a cyclone is forming in the boc
Off course Tropical Cyclone is forming over the warm waters, the Gulf of Mexico off course over the Bay of campeche...
Something to watch in the next 10 days but the GFS and its ensembles have some action coming out of the W.carribbean and into the gulf of mexico. MJO will be strong in the EPAC and W ATLANTIC during that time.
367. Ed22
Quoting 364. Tazmanian:




Nothing new at 8am
Ok they still have it at 70%/70%...
368. Ed22
Quoting 366. wunderweatherman123:

Something to watch in the next 10 days but the GFS and its ensembles have some action coming out of the W.carribbean and into the gulf of mexico. MJO will be strong in the EPAC and W ATLANTIC during that time.
In term of storm forming in June, this June we are in now is going to be on record as one of the mosted active months ever... So far the Atlantic Hurricane season is ahead of the Eastern Pacific, so we in for an very active Hurricane season...
369. Ed22
Quoting 361. MAweatherboy1:

DMAX.


Invest 94L is taking advantage of warm Gulf waters and light to moderate wind- shear ranging from 5 to 20knots this morning, however its organising itself really well too...
94L...

Not once has the Hurricane Center said The system in the gulf is becoming better organized. I believe their is too much s/w shear to develop right now.Maybe when it gets closer to the coast.
372. Ed22
Quoting 359. scott39:

94L is firing up convection burst around COC. Count down will now begin.
It could very well skip tropical depression and named Danielle...
373. Ed22
Quoting 321. BaltimoreBrian:

94L and dry air--which describes it better?

This?



or this?




Getting better organised right now though I think the center of circulation is about 20.5 north and 93.8 west moving slowly west-northwest at about 9 mph pressure is 1009 millibars and falling...
Quoting 373. Ed22:

Getting better organised right now though I think the center of circulation is about 20.5 north and 93.8 west moving slowly west-northwest at about 9 mph pressure is 1009 millibars and falling...

1008mb now.
375. Ed22
Quoting 370. GeoffreyWPB:

94L...


Showers and thunderstorms continues to fired up and expanding in organisation with 94L...
94L is looking better this morning. Winds up to 35 mph/1008 mbar. Nice burst of convection near the center. Wouldn't be too surprised to see TD Four at 11AM
377. Ed22
Quoting 374. tiggerhurricanes2001:


1008mb now.

1008millibars now, By time Recon out their it could be around 1004 millibars or less getting stronger right about now...
378. Ed22
Quoting 376. HurricaneFan:

94L is looking better this morning. Winds up to 35 mph/1008 mbar. Nice burst of convection near the center. Wouldn't be too surprised to see TD Four at 11AM
Could very well be...
Good morning and Happy Father's Day (to those to which it is applicable).

See that 94L is still struggling from the effects of 25-30 kt shear. Surface observations indicate that no closed circulation exists (still an open wave). From the wording of the TWO, appears as if it won't happen until later this afternoon/evening.

Good news for the people in Mexico - although heavy rains will be an issue due to its slow movement.

Watching this baby "spin up" is like watching paint dry . . .

380. Tcwx2
Well I must admit 94L proved me wrong. I didn't think that it would be able to develop but it is. 4 storms, 4 landfalls, 2U.S. This year will be something else if we go through July at this pace, comparisons to 2005 will be within reason.
Good morning all... brief look in from mostly cloudy Nassau ...
Quoting 368. Ed22:

In term of storm forming in June, this June we are in now is going to be on record as one of the mosted active months ever... So far the Atlantic Hurricane season is ahead of the Eastern Pacific, so we in for an very active Hurricane season...
Not automatically. A lot depends on whether we see a serious relaxation in trades and overall shear during the ASO period, which is when most storms normally form, due, it is expected, to a coalescing La Nina. If that occurs, a well above average season is possible.

Right now, if 94L becomes Danielle, even an average season's worth of additional storms will mean we have 16 named storms and at least 3 hurricanes.
Happy Fathers Day to all the wonderful WU fathers! May your day be filled with love, laughter and steaks off the grill served with your beverage of choice!

Edit: This wish is also extended to all female members that took on both parental roles

Dad

© Karen K. Boyer

He never looks for praises
He's never one to boast
He just goes on quietly working
For those he loves the most
His dreams are seldom spoken
His wants are very few
And most of the time his worries
Will go unspoken too
He's there.... A firm foundation
Through all our storms of life
A sturdy hand to hold to
In times of stress and strife
A true friend we can turn to
When times are good or bad
One of our greatest blessings,
The man that we call Dad.




Source: Poem About A Silent Strong Dad




Plane will depart at 15:30 UTC.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT SUN 19 JUNE 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z JUNE 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-024

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARK: THE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION FOR 19/1800Z TASKED IN
TCPOD 16-023 WILL FLY TODAY AS SCHEDULED.
Quoting 368. Ed22:

In term of storm forming in June, this June we are in now is going to be on record as one of the mosted active months ever... So far the Atlantic Hurricane season is ahead of the Eastern Pacific, so we in for an very active Hurricane season...


We have seen 3 June storms before on three separate occasions.

We only have one storm so far.
387. beell
Quoting 381. nrtiwlnvragn:

94L Rapid Scan Visible


Looks closed.
It's a TD!
Quoting 371. victoria780:

Not once has the Hurricane Center said The system in the gulf is becoming better organized. I believe their is too much s/w shear to develop right now.Maybe when it gets closer to the coast.

I'm thinking when HH fly In this afternoon they'll find a closed circulation and that's when the NHC will upgrade 94L
almost looks like a mini-mojo has moved into the basin
Quoting 380. Tcwx2:

Well I must admit 94L proved me wrong. I didn't think that it would be able to develop but it is. 4 storms, 4 landfalls, 2U.S. This year will be something else if we go through July at this pace, comparisons to 2005 will be within reason.
So far the early pace is comparable.... I'm still watching for similarities in intensity. July 2005 brought us several intense hurricanes that tracked through the Car and GoM .... still waiting to see if 2016 will bring something similar.

I'm also watching the AB high setup. So far not seeing a whole lot of trough action disrupting it .... if that persists until August we'll continue to see tracks through the CAR and GoM, with a few through the Bahamas and along FL for variation ....

There's certainly a lot to watch for now. I'm still expecting a July doldrums, but that looks likely not to begin until after the Independence holidays, given the potential MJO upswing in our area next week.... at least we have 94L for a while, and potentially 95L soon ....
Quoting 387. beell:



Looks closed.
It's a TD!
Such enthusiasm, Mr. Beell!

:o)
Quoting 387. beell:



Looks closed.
It's a TD!


By Colin standards, yes.
393. beell
Quoting 391. BahaHurican:

Such enthusiasm, Mr. Beell!

:o)

i should have left out the exclamation point...
Quoting 393. beell:


i should have left out the exclamation point...
Definitely not your usual laconic tone....
395. beell
Quoting 392. nrtiwlnvragn:



By Colin standards, yes.


exactly...
50% deep convection, a couple feeder bands in the NW quad, 30 knot gusts at the BOC buoy.
Ship it.
last week joe b showed the Aug. & Sept. upper air forecast and it looks like the conus is vulnerable during the peak of the season. ouch
Quoting 391. BahaHurican:

Such enthusiasm, Mr. Beell!

:o)


I'll chalk it off to it being Father's Day and being spoiled by the fam . . .
There appears to my untrained eye that there is a plume of moisture that comes across the isthmus from the Pacific that seems to re-blossom in the convection at or near the center of 94L.

Can the EPAC moisture perform a substantial assist in this developmental stage? Is this normal for the BOC? (Understanding that the normal may well be becoming archaic in many current met estimations.}


Quoting 370. GeoffreyWPB:

94L...


Quoting 390. BahaHurican:

So far the early pace is comparable.... I'm still watching for similarities in intensity. July 2005 brought us several intense hurricanes that tracked through the Car and GoM .... still waiting to see if 2016 will bring something similar.

I'm also watching the AB high setup. So far not seeing a whole lot of trough action disrupting it .... if that persists until August we'll continue to see tracks through the CAR and GoM, with a few through the Bahamas and along FL for variation ....

There's certainly a lot to watch for now. I'm still expecting a July doldrums, but that looks likely not to begin until after the Independence holidays, given the potential MJO upswing in our area next week.... at least we have 94L for a while, and potentially 95L soon ....
I have noticed that too about the nil number of troughs.
If my post repeated twice, it's because the blog is going thru a sinkhole again.
I see convection is still being sheared with 94L. It has to maintain this convection this time
404. Ed22
Quoting 387. beell:



Looks closed.
It's a TD!
To my analysing of the Rapid Scan it looks closed with a burst of convection over 94L's circulation...
I came on late hoping to already see this :)

Happy Father's day everyone!
Yes, it seems as if the center of circulation is in the main plume of moisture for this storm.
Quoting 363. Ed22:

Dmax at work; enlighten on this particular Word Dmax, what does it mean weather enthusiast.


Diurnal maximum, when the water becomes warmer than the air above it so it cools, causing it to be less dense and thus it rises. Part of a diurnal temperature cycle. Minimum is as you might guess the opposite. I might have it backwards though..
Coming from this fellow,is a very telling message.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 2m2 minutes ago

#94L trying to come together in the Bay of Campeche- should be an interesting afternoon recon flight!

Quoting 408. Tropicsweatherpr:


Exactly as he works at the NHC.Has the conspiracy "padding for numbers" party started yet?

Michael Ventrice %u200F@MJVentrice 43m43 minutes ago
Calibrated ECMWF EPS Guidance indicating over a 90% for invest 94L to develop into a tropical cyclone.

Michael Ventrice %u200F@MJVentrice 46m46 minutes ago
Convection starting to pop over invest 94L. This has a high chance to develop into a Tropical Depression.
Quoting 408. Tropicsweatherpr:

Coming from this fellow,is a very telling message.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 2m2 minutes ago

#94L trying to come together in the Bay of Campeche- should be an interesting afternoon recon flight!




I cannot wait!
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 49m49 minutes ago
Gulf of Mexico ocean temps running 1-2°C above normal for mid-June. 28-29.5°C plenty for hurricane development.
Quoting 387. beell:



Looks closed.
It's a TD!


I'm gonna respectfully say - still looks open on the southeast quad . . .
Quoting 413. daddyjames:



I'm gonna respectfully say - still looks open on the southwest quad . . .


Looks a bit elongated too, though I see SW winds. We're getting there..
Quoting 414. win1gamegiantsplease:



Looks a bit elongated too, though I see SW winds. We're getting there..


Where are you finding out there are southeast winds?
Quoting 413. daddyjames:



I'm gonna respectfully say - still looks open on the southeast quad . . .


shear is still taking a bit of a toll on the system.
Interesting in that the latest Dvorak fix is well south of where the main circulation appears to be . . .



Edit: forgot to take the "s" off.
Quoting 414. win1gamegiantsplease:



Looks a bit elongated too, though I see SW winds. We're getting there..


Correct my statement to south east. Fingers still don't know their east from west ;)
Quoting 418. daddyjames:



Correct my statement to south east. Fingers still don't know their east from west ;)


either way, it still does not appear closed, convection waning again
420. ackee
I have learned never judge how systems look convection wise see if it closed Colin never look like a storm yet was upgraded

Going for WU has a forecast for 109 @Indian Hills PWS and 108 at the Airport. One Word, YIKES...
So Far we have had some weak T/S. I think it's way to early to compare to 2005!
Quoting 414. win1gamegiantsplease:



Looks a bit elongated too, though I see SW winds. We're getting there..


Yes, as shown in the what I posted in 417. Dueling LLCs?
424. Ed22
Quoting 410. Climate175:


I think it's closed now, it looks pretty amazing (94L) that is... Things gonna get interesting this evening when Recon goes out this evening...
Quoting 424. Ed22:

I think it's closed now, it looks pretty amazing (94L) that is... Things gonna get interesting this evening when Recon goes out this evening...


I thought it goes out at 1530Z?
Quoting 422. gulfbreeze:

So Far we have had some weak T/S. I think it's way to early to compare to 2005!
Only real point of comparison so far is numbers of named storms. We've had other seasons with May / June storms that did not continue to the point where they were comparable to 2005 .... I doubt we see 20 storms. Moreover, we've yet to see how the other components will fall out as July arrives ... if we continue with above average activity then, I'd be more willing to consider higher numbers.

In any case, still way too early to draw serious parallels to that Other Year.... agreed.
Quoting 422. gulfbreeze:

So Far we have had some weak T/S. I think it's way to early to compare to 2005!
I'am waiting to see what July has in store.The energy is certainly there for a storm to use but so far the storms have not had the time or the proper upper level conditions to use it.If we get a hurricane or two in July maybe the comparisons can be made but so far we have had a few short lived T.C's.If anything we still have August/September to look forward to.
Quoting 425. 62901IL:



I thought it goes out at 1530Z?
If so, that's 10 minutes from now, give or take a couple minutes....
429. Ed22
Quoting 417. daddyjames:

Interesting in that the latest Dvorak fix is well south of where the main circulation appears to be . . .



Edit: forgot to take the "s" off.

its organising very fast, I but it would skip depression status and get named thats "Danielle" this evening...
Quoting 428. BahaHurican:

If so, that's 10 minutes from now, give or take a couple minutes....

NHC plan of the day

000
NOUS42 KNHC 181528
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SAT 18 JUNE 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z JUNE 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-023

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 19/1800Z A. 20/0530Z,1130Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0204A CYCLONE
C. 19/1530Z C. 20/0300Z
D. 21.5N 95.0W D. 22.0N 96.5W
E. 19/1730Z TO 19/2230Z E. 20/0500Z TO 20/1130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
Recon just went wheels up.

Quoting 431. Patrap:

Recon just went wheels up.




Good! Wundering when they'd take off....
Quoting 424. Ed22:

I think it's closed now, it looks pretty amazing (94L) that is... Things gonna get interesting this evening when Recon goes out this evening...


LLC appears to be reforming south of what we were focusing on earlier. Under that little flare of convection just southwest of the collapsing convection that looked impressive.
As of 15:21 UTC Jun 19, 2016:
Aircraft Position: 30.40°N 88.92°W
Bearing: 90° at 0 kt
Altitude: 10 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 0 kt at 0°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1022.1 mb

Aircraft Data Time Series (click to enlarge):
Quoting 429. Ed22:

its organising very fast, I but it would skip depression status and get named thats "Danielle" this evening...


Let's see what the recon finds. Estimated winds are not even close at the moment. Not entirely sure the circulation is closed off just yet.
437. beell


Quoting 429. Ed22:

its organising very fast, I but it would skip depression status and get named thats "Danielle" this evening...


the dvorak estimate being well south would indicate this is disorganized
440. beell
A fine looking TD.
Quoting 440. beell:

A fine looking TD.


yea maybe, not a TS yet though. It is also having a tough time maintain convection
Earlier 12Z

* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL942016 06/19/16 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 34 34 33 35 36 38 39 41 42
V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 32 31 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 21 19 16 12 6 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 0 -1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 250 238 238 246 264 297 336 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 160 156 153 151 147 144 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 148 143 138 135 131 127 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 10 9 8 12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 69 68 72 72 72 70 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -2 -3 -6 -6 -13 -22 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 4 6 35 46 26 27 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -9 0 0 -5 -4 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 199 159 95 56 16 -40 -128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 20.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 94.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 6 5 4 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 25 25 22 18 10 12 8 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.4

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
-------------------------------------------------- --------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 29. 30.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
-------------------------------------------------- --------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.3 94.3

** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942016 INVEST 06/19/16 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.54 1.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.8 37.5 to 2.9 0.19 0.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.68 1.7
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.23 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.9 28.4 to 139.1 0.73 1.1
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 31.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.90 0.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 5.1%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
-------------------------------------------------- -------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
-------------------------------------------------- -------------------
SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 15.5% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 15.7%
Logistic: 1.8% 10.9% 4.9% 1.1% 0.0% 1.8% 8.4%
Bayesian: 0.2% 1.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Consensus: 2.3% 9.4% 5.1% 0.4% 0.0% 3.4% 8.1%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942016 INVEST 06/19/16 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942016 INVEST 06/19/2016 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 31 32 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 32 27 25 25 25 25 25 25 25
12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 24 22 22 22 22 22 22 22
6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 17 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT
That blob over Belize looks wet and ready for action.

Cheers
Qazulight
AF305 doing a calibration run before heading SSW into the Gom.

Quoting 437. beell:






Hmm, RGB seems to show otherwise . . .
Quoting 443. Qazulight:

That blob over Belize looks wet and ready for action.

Cheers
Qazulight
Hey this is a family blog!
447. beell
Quoting 441. Hurricanes101:



yea maybe, not a TS yet though. It is also having a tough time maintain convection


The wild card is the NHC. If 1 sq km of ocean appears to be under TS conditions...Danielle.
:/
448. elioe
Quoting 440. beell:

A fine looking TD.


Unless something unexpected happens and destroys the cloud mass that has been expanding from at least 10 UTC, I think advisories will begin at 21 UTC.
Everyone wave bye to the low pressure that's about to hit Mexico crossing into the East P as we burn up over here in the southeast. Everyone just wave bye to the storm that's not turning our way just incase some folks have any hope
Quoting 445. daddyjames:



Hmm, RGB seems to show otherwise . . .



Think its trying to collect itself just south of the red circle you provided . . .
Morning all! Happy Dad's Day to all you fathers out there!!

So I had said during Colin that I'd come back with a report after my excurion about town. Well I forgot. Never too late, right? I actually was impressed at how poorly we faired. The rain turned out to be negligible (~2.5") and wind peaked in the low to mid 50's in some of the strongest gusts. The impressive part though was the amount of erosion here. The beaches weren't this bad even after the end of 2005, so following two fairly epic seasons for the state. This is downright bad. For those who don't know me, I live in Englewood, in swFL. And in Englewood, you'll find Manasota Key, home to four public beaches. Around the center of the island, we find the aptly named Middle Beach, or officially, Blind Pass Beach, but no locals refer to it as the latter. This is where the key has suffered badly stretching north towards the point of rocks. So far 2 homes are condemned and one condominium building. Colin eroded an enormous amount of sand from this area and several home are literally exposing their foundations. Obviously, something must be done, right? The problem is this is called Blind Pass Park for a reason. Can you guess why? Bingo! Because it was once home to an inlet feeding Lemon Bay. There's been a fight for years to reopen the pass. Perhaps sooner or later they'll get it, or perhaps sooner or later, mother nature will become fed up and do it herself. As of right now, it wouldn't take a huge event. The hyrologic and geographic nature of the coast here isn't going to change without spending a lot of OUR dollars. It's time they let be what will be. Build a bridge and some jetties and be done with it. These expensive, time consuming band aids are becoming more frequent with time and if you've never seen it done, quite the eyesore. My hope is someday they'll do as nature intended and let the water flow. As of now, it's only one storm away from doing it itself.

94 is looking a bit depression-y today. Should be declared today, I'd imagine. Everyone have a great day!
Where are they going?
Quoting 451. Patrap:


Quoting 453. 19N81W:

Where are they going?



to 94L
Quoting 453. 19N81W:

Where are they going?



to 94L....where else?

Quoting 453. 19N81W:

Where are they going?



Father's Day Tequila run.
ALERT ATCF MIL 94X XXX 160619060000
2016061906
19.9 267.0
21.5 263.1
100
19.9 267.0
191200
1606191200
2
WTNT22 KNGU 191200
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.7N 91.4W TO 20.8N 95.4W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ABOUT 270 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN, MEXICO AND IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPEMENT AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM TODAY OR
TONIGHT.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 201200Z.//
9416061712 175N 880W 15
9416061718 181N 886W 15
9416061800 186N 892W 15
9416061806 189N 900W 20
9416061812 192N 909W 20
9416061818 193N 917W 25
9416061900 197N 923W 25
9416061906 199N 930W 25

Why? Training?
Right ok RECON is en route let the party begin
Quoting 458. 19N81W:

Why? Training?


Um no, to see if it is a Tropical Depression
That's more like it no other reason to burn that money

Quoting 456. daddyjames:



Father's Day Tequila run.
Quoting 415. 62901IL:



Where are you finding out there are southeast winds?


It appeared to be the case, and weather station out of Paraiso, Tab., Mexico is reporting SW winds, not SE
By the time they get there it will be almost over Mexico ? Anyway
Quoting 460. Hurricanes101:



Um no, to see if it is a Tropical Depression
Quoting 459. wunderkidcayman:

Right ok RECON is en route let the party begin


*gets out some juice, soda, cake and ice cream*
Quoting 464. 19N81W:

By the time they get there it will be almost over Mexico ? Anyway



no, it'll hang around in the BOC until tomorrow.
Quoting 463. wunderkidcayman:



You are such a downcaster

Maybe the lack of rain has got your head screwed up

94L is doing well and it's only natural we would have the recon flight


94L is a mess. Circulation is elongated, and LLC is trying to relocate to the southern end of it. Limited to no convection and a huge amount of shear - Just saying ;)
468. Ed22
Quoting 445. daddyjames:



Hmm, RGB seems to show otherwise . . .

Wow!!! Invest 94L getting it on right now...
Nothing to do with it just given its location to land just seems an unessecary expense especially given the accuracy of imagery these days
The lack of rain is a sign of the times

Quoting 463. wunderkidcayman:



You are such a downcaster

Maybe the lack of rain has got your head screwed up

94L is doing well and it's only natural we would have the recon flight
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Whenever I hear a member go on about recon and money..I throw up a lil in the back of my mouth from such Ignorance.

It is a great thing these men and women do for millions unselfishly.
Quoting 468. Ed22:

Wow!!! Invest 94L getting it on right now...


I think it's starting to tighten up.
As usual completely missing the point on wu I fly patrap so of anyone on hear I am qualified to say I have the utmost respect for these folks flying into the weather we fly so far around. Money sadly in this day and age is not ignorant and doesn't care about you or me once it's spent it's gone and very finite. It's not worth the flight at this stage in my opinion and I suspect many on here would agree but afraid of the old boys club on here.
Quoting 471. Patrap:

Whenever I hear a member go on about recon and money..I throw up a lil in the back of my mouth from such Ignorance.

It is a great thing these men and women do for millions unselfishly.


sleep with one eye open enter the sandman
Quoting 446. washingtonian115:

Hey this is a family blog!


Sorry, I'm just remembering the event that led up to me being a father.

476. beell
Quoting 473. 19N81W:

As usual completely missing the point on wu I fly patrap so of anyone on hear I am qualified to say I have the utmost respect for these folks flying into the weather we fly so far around. Money sadly in this day and age is not ignorant and doesn't care about you or me once it's spent it's gone and very finite. It's not worth the flight at this stage in my opinion and I suspect many on here would agree but afraid of the old boys club on here.



Nah, we can just print some more money.

Quoting 467. daddyjames:



94L is a mess. Circulation is elongated, and LLC is trying to relocate to the southern end of it. Limited to no convection and a huge amount of shear - Just saying ;)


Ha lol your joking or just blind
94L is not a mess
Circulation certainly not elongated
There is plenty of convection over the system
Shear ain't too bad


Happy Fathers Day!