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WU Storm App: Now on Android

By: Bob Henson 7:53 PM GMT on June 17, 2016

Android users who’ve been hungering for access to WU’s Storm app, which debuted in 2015 on iOS devices, have cause to celebrate: Storm is now available for you! Android users can download Storm within the Google Play Store. For iOS users, it’s available within iTunes or the App Store.

Storm builds on the usefulness and clean design of the main WU app, and the data and forecasting strengths of WU and The Weather Company, to provide an array of features designed with storm trackers and weather enthusiasts in mind. The app allows you to view current conditions, daily or hourly forecasts at a glance and in a more detailed view, all drawing on WU’s network of more than 200,000 personal weather stations (PWSs). Storm also provides a wealth of other features specifically designed for keeping track of extreme weather.



High-definition radar: Storm provides access to data from the national network of NEXRAD radar sites at the top resolution available, with a razor-sharp 250 meters (800 feet) between data points. Users can view animations of past activity and extrapolations of current activity out to two hours ahead.

Storm tracks: For each key area of current storm action identified by the app, Storm provides a strength rating, storm motion, precipitation rate, any potential hazards (such as wind, hail, lightning, and tornadoes), and more.

Full-screen interactive map: The fully customizable Storm map interface allows you to display lightning, fronts, PWS data, and even earthquakes. I especially like the semi-transparent display of NWS watches, warnings, and advisories, which makes it easy to see where more than one type of alert is in effect.

Customizable alerts and notifications: Users can be notified of warnings and other alerts issued by NOAA, Environment Canada, and MeteoAlarm. Up-to-the-minute severe weather alerts are also available through widgets.

Socialize your weather: Storm allows you to share storm-tracking details and radar data with your friends and family via text message, email, Facebook, or Twitter.

Storm can be installed on Android phones and 7-inch tablets. The app can be used free of charge; for an ad-free experience, you can purchase a one-year subscription for $1.99. One user of Storm told us: "Storm is the best app out there. I've bought over 30 weather apps. Nothing (including several apps combined) comes close.”

Here comes the heat
A hot weekend is coming up for most of the nation, and the Southwest in particular. We’ll have a full update Monday on this weekend’s record-threatening Southwest heat wave, which may intensify northward into California and eastward into the central states next week. We are also keeping an eye on Invest 93E in the eastern North Pacific. This system is moving away from Mexico and into a less favorable environment, and NHC has reduced its chance of development to 40% over the next 5 days.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and stay cool!

Bob Henson


Figure 1. WU depiction of maximum temperature predicted at midday Friday for Saturday, June 18, 2016, by the National Digital Forecast Database.

Wunderground News

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

We are also keeping an eye on Invest 93L in the eastern North Pacific

dont you mean 93E ??

Very solid Tropical Threat for Florida the last week in June. Euro shows a system coming in from the East and the GFS has a system coming up from the SW during that same 8 to 10 day time frame.

Eur and GFS Ensembles are showing a very real threat down the road so we do have something to monitor in the long range.
Thanks Mr. Henson!
Potentially a huge WWB coming across the Pacific come July. Not looking good for La-Nina to make an appearance this year.

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice Jun 16

Strong CC Kelvin wave to pass the East Pacific in the 11-15 day period. Could provide a boost for East Pac TCgenesis
Don't you mean 93E? lol.Just mess'in with ya Mr.Henson.
Quoting 5. StormTrackerScott:

Potentially a huge WWB coming across the Pacific come July. Not looking good for La-Nina to make an appearance this year.

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice Jun 16

Strong CC Kelvin wave to pass the East Pacific in the 11-15 day period. Could provide a boost for East Pac TCgenesis



Everyone sing along:

Ding, dong El Nino's dead
No matter what
STS said
Ding, Dong the warm El Nino's dead . . .
Thanks for the update/plug; I am sure that Android users are happy campers. On a related note for the tropical storm watchers, I have a few weather apps on my I-Phone but my favorit go to one is the "Hurricane" app that has a blue icon with a red storm symbol. Instant push button access to all the current satt loops for the Atlantic and Pacific Basins, NOAA Radio feeds from around the country, national doppler radar mosaics from noaa, all current text bulletins and outlooks from NHC, and an interactive tropical storm map where you push on the TD or storm and it brings up the most recent NHC updates. Can't figure out who puts this one out at the moment buy I highly recommended it for when you don't have regular access to a computer or Noaa radio.
Repost from the last blog, for the sake of beauty ;-P :
A closer look at this rather unseasonal storm and its impressive structure.

Screenshot at 1830 GMT. The low is entering the Baltic Sea ; at Liepaja International Airport (Latvia), atmos. pressure is now 991 hpa.
And a bonus (beta.meteoradar.co.uk, 7 sec. loop)
Quoting 7. daddyjames:



Everyone sing along:

Ding, dong El Nino's dead
No matter what
STS said
Ding, Dong the warm El Nino's dead . . .
He left out the tweet where he said trades will be picking up and then cooling will resume.lol
Anyone know if the Android app is any good for the UK? Or would it just not have the fandy fandangled options is all?


And thanks Riot for the info :)
lots of lower pressures across the Central Pacific and over FL come day 9. Tropical mischief likely for FL late June.

Quoting 10. washingtonian115:

He left out the tweet where he said trades will be picking up and then cooling will resume.lol


Nope before the Kelvin Wave approaches yes Easterlies will get enhance but as it moves across then Westerlies will pick up. Again Models of late are beginning to peak any cooling across the equatorial Pacific in July or August. Most likely scenario will be neutral conditions for the peak of Hurricane Season and BTW the forecast for the MDR look bleak.
Thanks! Going to download my app now! Good stuff Mr Henson!
Quoting 7. daddyjames:



Everyone sing along:

Ding, dong El Nino's dead
No matter what
STS said
Ding, Dong the warm El Nino's dead . . .


El Nino's not just merely dead, it's really most sincerely dead.
93l should be 93 e other than that good read have a great weekend
Quoting 16. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

93l should be 93 e other than that good read have a great weekend


i said that too but they all way seem too ignore me
Quoting 10. washingtonian115:

He left out the tweet where he said trades will be picking up and then cooling will resume.lol


Yeah, I noticed that too - and the ones that said:

@MJVentrice

Michael Ventrice %u200F@MJVentrice Jun 16
Officially in a "Low AAM" state. Last time we were there was June 2015. Indicates the El Nino atmosphere has decayed

Michael Ventrice Retweeted
Eric Blake %u200F@EricBlake12 Jun 15
Weak Pacific trades have helped to stall #LaNina, but MJO & trade surge coming should force more cooling for summer

Michael Ventrice %u200F@MJVentrice Jun 14
Easterly Oceanic instability waves causing havoc in the daily ENSO 3.4 index. Expect weekly rises/falls of this indx

WesternWeather %u200F@WesternWeather Jun 14
@MJVentrice Index should quickly drop given return to EHem forcing and low level easterly winds to resume over ENSO regions
Quoting 3. StormTrackerScott:

Very solid Tropical Threat for Florida the last week in June. Euro shows a system coming in from the East and the GFS has a system coming up from the SW during that same 8 to 10 day time frame.

Eur and GFS Ensembles are showing a very real threat down the road so we do have something to monitor in the long range.


Guess we can't really relax concerning tropical cyclones until about Christmas. Then start worrying again around Memorial day.
To be fair - STS did say that La Nina may not make an appearance and that we may enter into Neutral conditions . . . he did not say that El Nino was coming back.
Quoting 13. StormTrackerScott:



Nope before the Kelvin Wave approaches yes Easterlies will get enhance but as it moves across then Westerlies will pick up. Again Models of late are beginning to peak any cooling across the equatorial Pacific in July or August. Most likely scenario will be neutral conditions for the peak of Hurricane Season and BTW the forecast for the MDR look bleak.


If bleak means no storms I'm happy! But if I have to choose between occasional TC threats and derecho/downburst/microburst/tornado threats I'll take the TC because there is lead time and it is possible to prepare for them(people should already be done for the season with that!) Anything above an F2 tornado with my 1919 house and the house is a total loss.
Leaving us Windows phone users high and dry Bob? Or out in the cold.. or all wet... etc.
Thanks Mr. Henson...
... Significant weather advisory for frequent to excessive lightning
and 45 to 55 mph winds for northeastern Miami-Dade County until 515
PM EDT...

* at 427 PM EDT... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a
line of strong thunderstorms along a line extending from doral to
sunset to The Hammocks... and moving southeast at 20 mph.

* The primary impacts will be frequent to excessive lightning and
gusty winds of 45 to 55 mph. Lightning is the number one weather
related killer in Florida. Trees and open shelters offer no
protection. These winds can down small tree limbs and branches...
and blow around unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe
building until the storm passes.

* Locations impacted include...
Miami... Hialeah... Miami Beach... Coral Gables... Key Biscayne... South
Miami... Kendall... Virginia Key... doral... Hialeah Gardens... Pinecrest...
Miami Springs... Sweetwater... North Bay Village... West Miami... El
Portal... Medley... kendale lakes... The Hammocks and Olympia Heights.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Residents should remain on the alert for additional statements and
possible warnings.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further
details or updates.


Lat... Lon 2567 8012 2553 8017 2565 8050 2575 8045
2587 8043 2585 8009
time... Mot... loc 2027z 294deg 19kt 2581 8035 2572 8036 2566 8044


Baxter

Thanks Bob.

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

WEAK RIDGE AXIS PERSISTS ACROSS BASIN TODAY EXTENDING FROM STRAITS
NW INTO SE TEXAS. WLY FLOW ACROSS NE PORTIONS THIS MORNING HAD
KICKED UP SEAS 3-5 FT WHILE SLY FLOW OFF TEXAS WAS YIELDING 3-4
FT. RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SINKS SSW ACROSS NE PORTIONS SAT EVE-NIGHT AND HAVE
FOLLOWED ECMWF MORE CLOSELY...ALTHOUGH MODELS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT. ELY WINDS 20-25 KT WILL BUILD BRIEFLY ACROSS NE COASTAL
WATERS BEHIND FRONT SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING BEFORE
ABATING TO AROUND 20 KT AS FRONT CONTINUES SSW...REACHING TAMPA
BAY TO MS RIVER DELTA BY 12Z SUN THEN CONTINUES A BIT FURTHER S
ACROSS FL ON SUN BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE SUN NIGHT ALONG SW FL
COAST AND SE GULF WATERS.

MEANWHILE...ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS YUCATAN
PENINSULA TODAY IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE ACROSS E BAY OF CAMPECHE
EARLY SAT AND SHIFT SLOWLY WWD ACROSS SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR CYCLOGENESIS THERE OVER
THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH AND POSSIBLE LOW SHIFT WWD AND LIKELY
INLAND ACROSS TAMPICO REGION SUN NIGHT-EARLY MON. HOWEVER...THE
RAT HOLE OFTEN PRODUCES SURPRISES AND A LLVL FEATURE COULD LINGER
BEYOND THIS TIME. EXPECT AT LEAST 20-25 KT ACROSS NE SEMICIRCLE OF
ANY LOW OR E OF TROUGH DURING PASSAGE.
Russia significantly under-reporting wildfires, figures show

Greenpeace analysis of satellite data reveals 3.5m hectares have burned this year, while government statistics claim only 669,000 hectares

Link
Quoting 5. StormTrackerScott:

Potentially a huge WWB coming across the Pacific come July. Not looking good for La-Nina to make an appearance this year.

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice Jun 16

Strong CC Kelvin wave to pass the East Pacific in the 11-15 day period. Could provide a boost for East Pac TCgenesis

THE
RAT HOLE OFTEN PRODUCES SURPRISES AND A LLVL FEATURE COULD LINGER
BEYOND THIS TIME. EXPECT AT LEAST 20-25 KT ACROSS NE SEMICIRCLE OF
ANY LOW OR E OF TROUGH DURING PASSAGE.


Rat hole? :)
Quoting 410. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Just the opposite. 1983 was one of the most active seasons in the Pacific (21-12-8).


I completely overlooked "E PAC" in Taz's post.
Quoting 8. weathermanwannabe:

Thanks for the update/plug; I am sure that Android users are happy campers. On a related note for the tropical storm watchers, I have a few weather apps on my I-Phone but my favorit go to one is the "Hurricane" app that has a blue icon with a red storm symbol. Instant push button access to all the current satt loops for the Atlantic and Pacific Basins, NOAA Radio feeds from around the country, national doppler radar mosaics from noaa, all current text bulletins and outlooks from NHC, and an interactive tropical storm map where you push on the TD or storm and it brings up the most recent NHC updates. Can't figure out who puts this one out at the moment buy I highly recommended it for when you don't have regular access to a computer or Noaa radio.

You mean Hurricane Tracker? I have that app as well.
Quoting 28. RitaandIke:

THE
RAT HOLE OFTEN PRODUCES SURPRISES AND A LLVL FEATURE COULD LINGER
BEYOND THIS TIME. EXPECT AT LEAST 20-25 KT ACROSS NE SEMICIRCLE OF
ANY LOW OR E OF TROUGH DURING PASSAGE.


Rat hole? :)


Made me smile too. :) I assume it was an allusion to the shape of the Bay of Campeche that sometimes help spin things up.
No depression. Oh well. It did look promising for awhile. Had it gotten going a little earlier, I think it would've made it.

Man the East Pacific sucks this year. :/
Quoting 30. NCHurricaneTracker69:


You mean Hurricane Tracker? I have that app as well.
Yes, I don't have the app, but I post his Twitter posts on here sometimes.
Quoting 32. KoritheMan:

No depression. Oh well. It did look promising for awhile. Had it gotten going a little earlier, I think it would've made it.

Man the East Pacific sucks this year. :/
The eastern pacific is having their version of the Atlantic 2006 hurricane season after the intense and hyper active 2005 season.The Atlantic is just getting warmed up..
Quoting 30. NCHurricaneTracker69:


You mean Hurricane Tracker? I have that app as well.


Yup that one; it is great.

Everyone have a great weekend and Happy Father's Day; going down to Miami to see Dad (90 in November) tomorrow.

Stay Weather Safe.
12,000 Years Ago, Humans and Climate Change Made a Deadly Team

Climate change, habitat destruction, extinctions — the Earth has seen it all before, thousands of years ago. And humans may have been partly to blame for many of those changes in nature, too.

A new study published Friday in Science Advances shows that the arrival of humans in Patagonia, combined with a changing climate, led to the extinction of many species of megafauna about 12,000 years ago in the southern portion of what is now South America. The research offers a significant moment in the natural history of the continent: a definitive date of the mass extinction of megafauna — large or giant animals, like mammoths and giant sloths — in this part of the world. It also suggests a potential relationship between threatened species and climate change in our own time.


Link
At first, I couldn't believe that the Atlantic had a strong positive AMO signature for the month of May, but looking at it now, looks pretty decent imo.
Quoting 32. KoritheMan:

No depression. Oh well. It did look promising for awhile. Had it gotten going a little earlier, I think it would've made it.

Man the East Pacific sucks this year. :/


and thats a good thing 2014 was the peak and 2015 was the 2nd peak
I was hoping for an app that would MAKE storms and adjust their tracks, now THAT would be fun. It would bring wish casting to a whole new level.

Cheers
Qazulight
Rapid Polar Warming Kicks ENSO Out of Climate Driver’s Seat, Sets off Big 2014-2016 Global Temperature Spike

“What is happening right now is we are catapulting ourselves out of the Holocene, which is the geological epoch that human civilisation has been able to develop in, because of the relatively stable climate. It allowed us to invent agriculture, rather than living as nomads. It allowed a big population growth, it allowed the foundation of cities, all of which required a stable climate.” — Stefan Rahmstorf

Link
May have time to spin up?

Quoting 39. Qazulight:

I was hoping for an app that would MAKE storms and adjust their tracks, now THAT would be fun. It would bring wish casting to a whole new level.

Cheers
Qazulight


The CMC Doomtracker
Quoting 28. RitaandIke:

THE
RAT HOLE OFTEN PRODUCES SURPRISES AND A LLVL FEATURE COULD LINGER
BEYOND THIS TIME. EXPECT AT LEAST 20-25 KT ACROSS NE SEMICIRCLE OF
ANY LOW OR E OF TROUGH DURING PASSAGE.


Rat hole? :)


And here I always thought "THE RAT HOLE" was Boca Raton. Guess I was wrong . . . ;)
54 hrs.
45. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA/NASA-Langley though final product not an official product of either...okay so they did do 99.99%...THEY WHERE MY CRAYONS!
AREA:: Tropical region covered by this Sat imagery, GoMx-Caribbean left in eastern half-COnUS...Hispaniola.
D&T:: 201606-17.0015.0u  till  201606-17;2045u (first few frames are at 3 hours apart, afterwards at 30 minutes apart.)
SAT TYPE:: goes13 - 2 types super-imposed and funktopGal filtered..
NOTE:: DO NOT USE COLOVRKEY as i forgot to overlay the customized SOLID version and left in the translucent version.
OBS:: Yucatan forming bottom up,   Hispanola forming top down     and off N/Carolina forming middle out ...what a show!!! hope no one is injured
Here 628x448, Actual 728x520 - YOUTUBE https://youtu.be/3BnqxhfmWhk
 
If one cares this the correct ccolourkey (not official - how my filters interpreted the original Sat colourkeys as to the2(3) layers).

Quoting 40. RobertWC:

Rapid Polar Warming Kicks ENSO Out of Climate Driver's Seat, Sets off Big 2014-2016 Global Temperature Spike

"What is happening right now is we are catapulting ourselves out of the Holocene, which is the geological epoch that human civilisation has been able to develop in, because of the relatively stable climate. It allowed us to invent agriculture, rather than living as nomads. It allowed a big population growth, it allowed the foundation of cities, all of which required a stable climate." Stefan Rahmstorf

Link

The alarm bell is ringing much louder now. A really good post by RMF, impressive demonstration there.
Two new articles from the Guardian :
1) Shattered records show climate change is an emergency today, scientists warn
2) Seven climate records set so far in 2016
47. N3EG
Somebody needs to change that maximum temperature map in Henson's post. It has four completely indistinguishable shades of yellow covering a 20 degree spread, where most others are distinguishable for each 5 degree spread. Sure makes it difficult for us West Coasters.
48. vis0
Quoting 7. daddyjames:



Everyone sing along:

Ding, dong El Nino's dead
No matter what
STS said
Ding, Dong the warm El Nino's dead . . .
(vis0 behind the curtain pulling levers & switches)
49. vis0

Quoting 17. Tazmanian:



i said that too but they all way seem too ignore me
u and me are in the same  part-tea boat, if i ever buy a boat (more like patched dingy) i'll name it ignore
50. vis0

Quoting 28. RitaandIke:

THE
RAT HOLE OFTEN PRODUCES SURPRISES AND A LLVL FEATURE COULD LINGER
BEYOND THIS TIME. EXPECT AT LEAST 20-25 KT ACROSS NE SEMICIRCLE OF
ANY LOW OR E OF TROUGH DURING PASSAGE.


Rat hole? :)
ITS  PART  OF  THR  NW  UNDRSTANDABLE TXT  STYLE
ME  BENG  FRM  DA  NYC  UNDRSTND  RAT.

co/written by vis0/Taz

Karin, the "Balticane": development in the last 9 hours.


Current (saved) IR pic.


Karin's eye over the Baltic Sea (wind 850mb).
Peaceful night from Europe with this:


(Watch it full screen). 13.06.2016: The winners and notable photos of the 7th International Earth and Sky Photo Contest, (www.twanight.org/contest), a program by The World at Night (TWAN) in collaboration with the Global Astronomy Month (astrowb.org) and the National Optical Astronomy Observatory (NOAO)
Quoting 39. Qazulight:

I was hoping for an app that would MAKE storms and adjust their tracks, now THAT would be fun. It would bring wish casting to a whole new level.

Cheers
Qazulight


Q, I'm sorry to tell you it would never work...
Here's a possible scenario:
WKC would create a Cat 5 headed for Cayman.
Lindy would change it to a TS moving down the
length of the Antilles. (they need the rain)
Kori would change it to a Cat ? Gulf coast landfall.
Patrap would add input to make sure that
doesn't happen.
That poor storm wouldn't know where to go...
:)

On topic, I downloaded the app.
On the map settings, the Quickpicks is a nice touch.
I haven't explored it much however.
Whatever is an app-phobic to do?
August of last year, the NHC must have been overwhelmed at that point lol, now imagine this August with the forecast conditions by then.
Quoting 39. Qazulight:

I was hoping for an app that would MAKE storms and adjust their tracks, now THAT would be fun. It would bring wish casting to a whole new level.

Cheers
Qazulight

This needs to be a thing.
Kind of a tough year for us storm trackers. Looking like a low ACE year in the Northern Hemisphere. East and West Pac probably well below normal and the Atlantic probably near normal. Can't complain given how active the past couple years have been though. Significant development anywhere continues to look unlikely for the next 7-10 days.
Current banner readings here -

Karachi, Pakistan 82.4 °F
Fairbanks, AK 84.2 °F


Pretty nuts.
Quoting 55. Climate175:

August of last year, the NHC must have been overwhelmed at that point lol, now imagine this August with the forecast conditions by then.


this year how ever we are not in a EL Nino and this year we will do march better wind shear is march lower this year then last year
+AMM?

Repost from last blog
Lotsa mojo in the conus and gom.

Hang on sloopy..

;-)

Special StatementIssued: 6:05 PM CDT Jun. 17, 2016 – National Weather Service

... A strong thunderstorm gust front will affect
Rankin... Yazoo... Simpson... southwestern Smith... southwestern
Madison and Hinds counties until 700 PM CDT...

At 604 PM CDT... meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
gust front along a line extending from 7 miles southwest of Thornton
to near Flowood to 7 miles east of Magee. Movement was southwest at
25 mph.

Strong winds will be near... Ridgeland and Brandon around 610 PM
CDT. Yazoo City and Flowood around 615 PM CDT. Pearl around 620 PM
CDT. Magee... Sanatorium and Monterey around 625 PM CDT. Richland
around 630 PM CDT. Florence around 635 PM CDT. Jackson and Byram
around 650 PM CDT. Raymond... Terry... Holly Bluff... Dry Grove and
Shivers around 700 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Puckett... Mize...
Satartia... Learned... Bentonia... Braxton... D'Lo and Georgetown.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds... and be especially aware of older trees.


Lat... Lon 3205 9023 3206 9051 3235 9068 3234 9064
      3234 9063 3253 9055 3262 9072 3262 9070
      3269 9066 3273 9074 3281 9069 3284 9076
      3292 9066 3292 9045 3301 9044 3301 9035
      3236 8998 3186 8949 3178 8959 3175 9012
time... Mot... loc 2304z 056deg 20kt 3299 9041 3234 9004 3189 8960


Eec



605 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016

... A strong thunderstorm gust front will affect
Rankin... Yazoo... Simpson... southwestern Smith... southwestern
Madison and Hinds counties until 700 PM CDT...

At 604 PM CDT... meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
gust front along a line extending from 7 miles southwest of Thornton
to near Flowood to 7 miles east of Magee. Movement was southwest at
25 mph.

Strong winds will be near... Ridgeland and Brandon around 610 PM
CDT. Yazoo City and Flowood around 615 PM CDT. Pearl around 620 PM
CDT. Magee... Sanatorium and Monterey around 625 PM CDT. Richland
around 630 PM CDT. Florence around 635 PM CDT. Jackson and Byram
around 650 PM CDT. Raymond... Terry... Holly Bluff... Dry Grove and
Shivers around 700 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Puckett... Mize...
Satartia... Learned... Bentonia... Braxton... D'Lo and Georgetown.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds... and be especially aware of older trees.


Lat... Lon 3205 9023 3206 9051 3235 9068 3234 9064
      3234 9063 3253 9055 3262 9072 3262 9070
      3269 9066 3273 9074 3281 9069 3284 9076
      3292 9066 3292 9045 3301 9044 3301 9035
      3236 8998 3186 8949 3178 8959 3175 9012
time... Mot... loc 2304z 056deg 20kt 3299 9041 3234 9004 3189 8960

Quoting 61. Gearsts:

+AMM?


Atlantic Meridonal Mode?
Quoting 66. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Atlantic Meridonal Mode?

Currently, trending more positive.
2016 -0.560 -0.660 -1.400 -1.580 0.090 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000
up too 10/30%


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave is producing disorganized thunderstorms and
cloudiness over the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, Belize, northern
Guatemala, and adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Any development of this disturbance should be slow to occur due to
proximity to land and only marginally conducive upper-level winds.
The system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at
about 10 mph during the next few days, and emerge over the Bay of
Campeche and the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent
we could see a 50mph TS once it get in the boc with the vary low wind shear ware it is heading we could see a short live TS spin up quick

70. Ed22
Quoting 6. washingtonian115:

Don't you mean 93E? lol.Just mess'in with ya Mr.Henson.

That Tropical wave to be organising over the Yucatan peninsula well wind-shear is currently low to moderate over the (Bay of Campeche) the Gulf of Mexico... We wait and see what happens Saturday afternoon into Sunday...
Calling all Houstonians:

Dry conditions are forecast this evening through much of the day
Saturday, with the potential for showers and thunderstorms
increasing Saturday evening ahead of a front approaching from the
northeast. 30-40% PoPs are forecast for much of SE Texas overnight
Saturday night, picking up slightly to the 40-50% range on
Sunday as the front inches closer. A few stronger storms may be
possible Sunday afternoon
. Showers and thunderstorms will likely
linger into the overnight hours on Sunday night, particularly near
the coast. 11


When a cold front approaches from the NE, and heads SE into a region of superheated air, that creates a very dangerous situation as far as T-storms go. The atmosphere will be as volatile as nitroglycerin. Stay tuned Houston! Be on guard for probable power outages!
Somewhat anomalous frontal boundary (for the time of year) hungup along the Coast Range north of San Francisco. Cloudy in the Bay Area and humid with the smell of evaporated rain in the air, but precip so far confined north of the Bay. Coastal SSTs have spiked up after having been depressed for weeks by strong upwelling driven by persistent NW winds. Satellite indicates several moisture bands coming from various directions. The most interesting is caught in a jet streak north of Hawaii about to dig into the upper low parked off the West Coast. Another is the monsoonal-type flow around the strong upper high parked over the desert southwest.

72. BayFog

This high is really something, I looked up Flagstaff , they are at 72F . It's not a "dome". it's a pan cake.

It has the trappings of the Russia High. Very wide , and very stable, and a lot humidity trapped under it.
A little bit of dry air easing south.

76. Ed22
Quoting 69. Tazmanian:

we could see a 50mph TS once it get in the boc with the vary low wind shear ware it is heading we could see a short live TS spin up quick


The tropical disturbance over the Yucatan Peninsula is gathering it self together nicely. It could be an invest by Saturday morning, nice pattern awaits it we could see a 60 or 70 mph tropical storm...
Those BOC storms can really curl up fast and spin quick.
Adding the app to Amazon's Play store for Kindle or better, FireTV soon?
Quoting 77. Climate175:

Those BOC storms can really curl up fast and spin quick.


Yes they do it might be classified as a invest really expect the chances of development to go up to 30/50
Wave over the Yucatan is kind of meh. Land interaction is firing up a lot of those storms.

Chances at 30% over the next 5 days is still not very high. Something to keep an eye on though
81. Ed22
Quoting 73. Patrap:


The tropical disturbance over the Yucatan peninsula is showing signs of organising and theirs a spin to it too... The percentage could go up tomorrow as it approaches the Yucatan peninsula north western coast by tomorrow morning, I'll give it 40/50% chance for tropical development...
I'm seeing these returns on the radar off the South Jersey and Delaware coast moving southwest. But on visible satellite skies look as clear as a diamond crystal. Birds? Smoke?

Sharknadoes?...

Quoting 79. James1981cane:



Yes they do it might be classified as a invest really expect the chances of development to go up to 30/50
Hey James, didn't you say your brother works at the NHC?
Outflow boundaries from collapsing storms can be seen coming into the BOC

click image for storm reports
A nicely wrapped up tropical wave just off of Africa. It was already amazing to see such a well organized tropical wave for June the other day, but now we have another one. Pretty obvious it has spin.
As for our BOC/GOM disturbance, it has continued to organize throughout the day, with an increase in thunderstorm coverage. In addition, vorticity has become more concentrated and has increased near the surface.
Quoting 86. tiggerhurricanes2001:

A nicely wrapped up tropical wave just off of Africa. It was already amazing to see such a well organized tropical wave for June the other day, but now we have another one. Pretty obvious it has spin.
As for our BOC/GOM disturbance, it has continued to organize throughout the day, with an increase in thunderstorm coverage. In addition, vorticity has become more concentrated and has increased near the surface.


the vorticity is the only thing it has going for it. The thunderstorms were land enhanced and are collapsing right now. The wave is not all that well organized


The wave near Africa has no vorticity at the surface, but wind shear is low.
Quoting 76. Ed22:

The tropical disturbance over the Yucatan Peninsula is gathering it self together nicely. It could be an invest by Saturday morning, nice pattern awaits it we could see a 60 or 70 mph tropical storm...


argreed
What are you expecting from the Yucatan/BoC AOI?
A: Just a disturbance/invest
B: TD
C: Weak TS (40/45 mph)
D: Moderate TS (50/60 mph)
E: Strong TS (65/70 mph)
F: Hurricane
Quoting 2. Tazmanian:

We are also keeping an eye on Invest 93L in the eastern North Pacific

dont you mean 93E ??




93E is dead as a Dodo bird.
Quoting 89. HurricaneFan:

What are you expecting from the Yucatan/BoC AOI?
A: Just a disturbance/invest
B: TD
C: Weak TS
D: Moderate TS
E: Strong TS
F: Hurricane



A. Unless it has days over water in the BOC, then maybe B or C
Quoting 89. HurricaneFan:

What are you expecting from the Yucatan/BoC AOI?
A: Just a disturbance/invest
B: TD
C: Weak TS
D: Moderate TS
E: Strong TS
F: Hurricane



D or E
Check the weather radar for Siioux Falls, storms converging from North East and Southwest. No hooks, but way cool. I moved my Mini Cooper to avoid the hail
(me and my unusual comments, fun with co-workers on New England Hurricane Lessons lol) Someone told me the weather has been nice.... to nice. I looked at them and said slyly, "Well 15 months without complete chaos in some form is typically at the upper edge of our ratchet bar before something happens in New England with the last being that winter, maybe it is time for a hurricane?" I let my brow raise for more than a moment.
They looked at me somewhat funny, "Well Sandy just happened and well doesn't that never happen up here especially when Irene was the year before?"
Their confidence unleashed my inner nerd. I could not help but put a finger up, "WELL!" I laughed for a second. "You know Sandy hit Jersey, Irene was a low grade Tropical Storm at the time. Bob was the last Hurricane as a Category Two storm in 1991. Gloria hit in 1985 as a Category One. It gets better though mon frere. 1960 one hit, two hit in 1954 with one being a Category Three. 1944 saw a Category Two. 1938 was well our version of Katrina." I tugged on my ear for effect while giving a faint wink, "What do you think of that?"
Unable to speak for a second a few things rang in their ear from somewhere. Flustered they responded, "George you were not even born in 1991 you need a life."
Hmm...a consensus.


Quoting 71. pureet1948:

Calling all Houstonians:

Dry conditions are forecast this evening through much of the day
Saturday, with the potential for showers and thunderstorms
increasing Saturday evening ahead of a front approaching from the
northeast. 30-40% PoPs are forecast for much of SE Texas overnight
Saturday night, picking up slightly to the 40-50% range on
Sunday as the front inches closer. A few stronger storms may be
possible Sunday afternoon
. Showers and thunderstorms will likely
linger into the overnight hours on Sunday night, particularly near
the coast. 11


When a cold front approaches from the NE, and heads SE into a region of superheated air, that creates a very dangerous situation as far as T-storms go. The atmosphere will be as volatile as nitroglycerin. Stay tuned Houston! Be on guard for probable power outages!


Just get under your bed now and quit trying to freak out people. It rains in Houston some times. Get over it.
I think the NHC is ignoring a possible subtropical storm. All models showing it closing off into a cyclone, and likely developing a fairly warm core.
Quoting 96. LouisPasteur:



Just get under your bed now and quit trying to freak out people. It rains in Houston some times. Get over it.


NWS says Cape values over 3000 and LI -8. Plus the NAM soundings show a V-shaped inversion. They say some storms could be strong. But then, with those factors, it could be more than they suspect.
Quoting 83. Climate175:

Hey James, didn't you say your brother works at the NHC?



Yes he works for the NHC he is in the atmospheric science division he helps figures out the track
Quoting 101. James1981cane:



Yes he works for the NHC he is in the atmospheric science division he helps figures out the track


He is an analyzer for the NHC. Basically the whole analytics and prediction of hurricanes. Then he approves the predictions that then go on tv.
Quoting 89. HurricaneFan:

What are you expecting from the Yucatan/BoC AOI?
A: Just a disturbance/invest
B: TD
C: Weak TS (40/45 mph)
D: Moderate TS (50/60 mph)
E: Strong TS (65/70 mph)
F: Hurricane


Probably A, but B is possible, C is unlikely but also possible, and D, E, and F are pretty much out of the question.
Quoting 100. pureet1948:



NWS says Cape values over 3000 and LI -8. Plus the NAM soundings show a V-shaped inversion. They say some storms could be strong. But then, with those factors, it could be more than they suspect.

Well anything can happen as forecasts change over the days as I tridents become more clear all I can say is Just pay attention to the forecast and if a warning is issued act accordingly. It's not worth it to get worked up over something that COULD happen.
Quoting 89. HurricaneFan:

What are you expecting from the Yucatan/BoC AOI?
A: Just a disturbance/invest
B: TD
C: Weak TS (40/45 mph)
D: Moderate TS (50/60 mph)
E: Strong TS (65/70 mph)
F: Hurricane


A too much land interaction and too little time to develop
Quoting 105. MrTornadochase:


Well anything can happen as forecasts change over the days as I tridents become more clear all I can say is Just pay attention to the forecast and if a warning is issued act accordingly. It's not worth it to get worked up over something that COULD happen.


Good point, MrTornadochase. The 18Z NAM 12 isn't bringing anything severe to the Houston region, though it does advertise it for points NE. Maybe NWS isn't considering the timing, hm?
Quoting 106. MrTornadochase:


A too much land interaction and too little time to develop


how many other storms have you seen in the past in the same area that cross in too the BOC and got named ??

i can start naming a few if you wish


this storm is moving at 5 too 10 mph this storm has a lot of time over water to be come some in
Quoting 108. Tazmanian:



how many other storms have you seen in the past in the same area that cross in too the BOC and got named ??

i can start naming a few if you wish


this storm is moving at 5 too 10 mph this storm has a lot of time over water to be come some in

As history has suggested these BOC storms spin up quickly. They often have a 30-40% chance of formation when they are named. I think we could have a weak (40-45) mph TS Danielle (or maybe even Earl if the other low forms into a SS first). Waters are very warm and shear is fairly light, which should be a favorable environment for Genesis if the wave crosses into water long enough.
110. beell
Quoting 109. HurricaneFan:


As history has suggested these BOC storms spin up quickly. They often have a 30-40% chance of formation when they are named. I think we could have a weak (40-45) mph TS Danielle (or maybe even Earl if the other low forms into a SS first). Waters are very warm and shear is fairly light, which should be a favorable environment for Genesis if the wave crosses into water long enough.

Can you imagine that we get Earl before July?! I never thought we would ever reach the 'E' storm before July which would be a significant record if that occurs.

Just did my 40th blog update in the Atlantic tropics. I still think both of our areas of interest could develop and therefore Earl before July remains a reality. This is also the most number of blog posts I've done by this date, because this season has had such an impressive start.
Quoting 108. Tazmanian:



how many other storms have you seen in the past in the same area that cross in too the BOC and got named ??

i can start naming a few if you wish


this storm is moving at 5 too 10 mph this storm has a lot of time over water to be come some in

True BOC storms can spin up quickly and I forgot it was going so slow but land interaction should keep in check especially if it's further doing south should only get to weak TS strength at most at most maybe stronger it goes slower and stays further away from land. Now that I think about it it could be A-c
Quoting 109. HurricaneFan:


As history has suggested these BOC storms spin up quickly. They often have a 30-40% chance of formation when they are named. I think we could have a weak (40-45) mph TS Danielle (or maybe even Earl if the other low forms into a SS first). Waters are very warm and shear is fairly light, which should be a favorable environment for Genesis if the wave crosses into water long enough.


Agreed
Quoting 111. NCHurricane2009:


Can you imagine that we get Earl before July?! I never thought we would ever reach the 'E' storm before July which would be a significant record if that occurs.

Just did my 40th blog update in the Atlantic tropics. I still think both of our areas of interest could develop and therefore Earl before July remains a reality. This is also the most number of blog posts I've done by this date, because this season has had such an impressive start.



And yet the E PAC still waits for the 1st storm just is this too funny
Quoting 112. MrTornadochase:


True BOC storms can spin up quickly and I forgot it was going so slow but land interaction should keep in check especially if it's further doing south should only get to weak TS strength at most at most maybe stronger it goes slower and stays further away from land. Now that I think about it it could be A-c



I agreed if we get a named storm it will be a weak TS
Quoting 114. Tazmanian:




And yet the E PAC still waits for the 1st storm just is this too funny

I think next month will also tell us a lot. If we get Earl before July, and then a major hurricane or two in July like we did in July 2005, I think we could be in for a surprise like we were that year. Who knows...maybe we could even have more activity than in 2005. I found that year fascinating because all seasonal forecasts way underestimated what actually ended up happening.

I also believe the EPAC was relatively quiet in 2005....
Quoting 116. NCHurricane2009:


I think next month will also tell us a lot. If we get Earl before July, and then a major hurricane or two in July like we did in July 2005, I think we could be in for a surprise like we were that year. Who knows...maybe we could even have more activity than in 2005. I found that year fascinating because all seasonal forecasts way underestimated what actually ended up happening.

I also believe the EPAC was relatively quiet in 2005....


Will have too see what happens with the BOC Storm 1st and see if we get that STS off the coast this weekend
Well I am off for the night.

We may have 94L in the Am when I wake up
The strongest convectively-coupled kelvin wave I've personally tracked is tracking across the Indian Ocean today. Not sure we'll get anything significant in the West Pacific even with a wave of such magnitude with the dissipating El Nino background state, but the East Pacific and especially Atlantic should be watched to round out June and start July. There's a reason the GFS and its ensembles have been showing a development signal in the Gulf in the long range.

Quoting 116. NCHurricane2009:


I think next month will also tell us a lot. If we get Earl before July, and then a major hurricane or two in July like we did in July 2005, I think we could be in for a surprise like we were that year. Who knows...maybe we could even have more activity than in 2005. I found that year fascinating because all seasonal forecasts way underestimated what actually ended up happening.

I also believe the EPAC was relatively quiet in 2005....
Yep the Atlantic was the most active basin I believe in 2005. The Wpac got 24 named storms compared to the 28 in the Atlantic.
Quoting 108. Tazmanian:



how many other storms have you seen in the past in the same area that cross in too the BOC and got named ??

i can start naming a few if you wish


this storm is moving at 5 too 10 mph this storm has a lot of time over water to be come some in
Brett, Gert and Jose in 2005, Fernand in 2013 to named a few.
2016 just seems like it is the Atlantic's year. The North Pacific has only had one named storm TOTAL all year, Pali back in January. Deep, warm SSTs in the GOM and Caribbean, strong tropical waves, and weaker shear should make the Atlantic much more interesting than the past 3 seasons.

was 90.9F here today. Gonna get really HOT here on Sun-Mon, AC at the ready.
Normal here is 85/60
Quoting 53. RitaandIke:



Q, I'm sorry to tell you it would never work...
Here's a possible scenario:
WKC would create a Cat 5 headed for Cayman.
Lindy would change it to a TS moving down the
length of the Antilles. (they need the rain)
Kori would change it to a Cat ? Gulf coast landfall.
Patrap would add input to make sure that
doesn't happen.
That poor storm wouldn't know where to go...
:)

On topic, I downloaded the app.
On the map settings, the Quickpicks is a nice touch.
I haven't explored it much however.


That is what would make it fun. Models would be completely useless.
The disturbance over the Yucatan is up to 20/40. looks like we might get a td or weak/mid ts. Will be impressive to have the D name storm in June.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 180518
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave is producing disorganized thunderstorms and
cloudiness over the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, Belize, northern
Guatemala, and adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea. A
weak surface low pressure system could form over the southern
Yucatan peninsula during the next day or so. At this time, only slow
development of this disturbance is expected due to proximity to land
and only marginally conducive upper-level winds. The system is
forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph
during the next few days, emerging over the Bay of Campeche and the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart
127. ackee
Quoting 121. HurricaneFan:

2016 just seems like it is the Atlantic's year. The North Pacific has only had one named storm TOTAL all year, Pali back in January. Deep, warm SSTs in the GOM and Caribbean, strong tropical waves, and weaker shear should make the Atlantic much more interesting than the past 3 seasons. Agree
128. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA/NASA, University of Washington
AREA:: Tropical region covered by ATL basin towards ePACD&T:: 201606-02.1215.0u  till  201606-17;2345u (~15days)
SAT TYPE:: IR-superimposed lightning strikes

Here 632x273, Actual 632x273 - YOUTUBE https://youtu.be/iBWr8KOm5Rs
 
Here (aniGIF-imghost is imgland)

of  ePAC side for this swirl  in vFog imagery of what became??? 93E.
 
One can see an earlier upload which has a more complete view of this low level spin at https://youtu.be/-u9T4t8QCzk
 
As i was creating this crappyGraphics i had to go back and remove TAz's comment as i noticed it was removed by eyeBeAm and/or flaggers.
What an interesting little blob at 6N & 29W racing ahead of that wave at 5N & 24W. It has nice spin & convection. I have never seen anything tropical this small.
Ok it looks like the NHC is finally seeing it how it is they brought out code orange and that tropical wave near thge antilles is looking good this morning
132. vis0
Хюuzтон, the crew has landed.
Neven on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum : "I have just published a post on the ASIB, explaining why the probability of this year breaking the minimum record has gone down considerably".
2016 melting momentum, part 1
Good post, well balanced and up-to-date. Suspense is building up, after all it wouldn't be funny if a record low this year was already a sure thing...
Convection is firing up on the BOC system this morning.
Good Morning; I see the medium (40%)possibility of a BOC disturbance in the longer term as of 2:00 am this morning from NHC..............Only to push ashore in Mexico as it tries to spin up:



And the region off of the Eastern Seaboard also still on the TCFP chart as of 00Z:






At the moment (and perhaps in 48 hours), sheer would probably be more favorable for the BOC area rather than off the US East coast where the shear is much higher:

138. red0
It feels like years since I've seen the Gulf look like it has for the last week or so. Is this pattern shift a short term lull, or are we shifting back towards a more normal wind shear pattern in the Gulf/Caribbean?
Quoting 53. RitaandIke:



Q, I'm sorry to tell you it would never work...
Here's a possible scenario:
WKC would create a Cat 5 headed for Cayman.
Lindy would change it to a TS moving down the
length of the Antilles. (they need the rain)
Kori would change it to a Cat ? Gulf coast landfall.
Patrap would add input to make sure that
doesn't happen.
That poor storm wouldn't know where to go...
:)

On topic, I downloaded the app.
On the map settings, the Quickpicks is a nice touch.
I haven't explored it much however.


Nah, he'd just tell everybody how to prepare for it so that it wouldn't be that would be doomgiver I invoked during my incantation. :P
Quoting 138. red0:

It feels like years since I've seen the Gulf look like it has for the last week or so. Is this pattern shift a short term lull, or are we shifting back towards a more normal wind shear pattern in the Gulf/Caribbean?


La Nina favors this, so it's not a surprise. I say the pendulum shifts and we get one Gulf Coast "threater" (quoting JFV) this year.
We are now at a Code Orange as of the 8am update, 40/40 now.
As noted by several yesterday, including Taz, one of the interesting things at the moment is the lack of any E-Pac storms one month into their season; we would have normally seen a few perhaps by this time in past recent seasons:





Quoting 141. Climate175:

We are now at a Code Orange as of the 8am update, 40/40 now.


I think it's closer to 50/50.
40/40 now as noted for BOC but still no change from the 2:00 am outlook in the longer term:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located near the Yucatan Peninsula is producing
cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorm activity from the southern
Gulf of Mexico across the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. A weak surface low pressure system could
form over the southern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so, but
only gradual development is expected due to proximity to land and
marginally conducive upper-level winds. This system is forecast
to move west-northwestward at about 10 mph before it moves inland
early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

We have Invest 94L!

94L INVEST 160618 1200 20.0N 92.0W ATL 15
Quoting 142. weathermanwannabe:

As noted by several yesterday, including Taz, one of the interesting things at the moment is the lack of any E-Pac storms one month into their season; we would have normally seen a few perhaps by this time in past recent seasons:








Actually, the dearth of activity we've seen there this year isn't even remotely normal in any year. We're only a few days behind the record slowest-starting season of 2009 (June 22). Seems like us beating that is a good bet at this point.
If it was not interacting with land at the moment, we could have been looking at a TD by the weekend me thinks:



Air temperatures of 115-120 F are just hard to comprehend. It feels a lot hotter than air in the sun, remember. And in South Louisiana today you have 80/80. Or rather, 80 degrees F/88% humidity as of now. High is 91...

Between the near-solstice sun and the warm air mass, I'd expect that the Northern Gulf of Mexico will pick up a lot of TCHP this weekend.
Quoting 147. weathermanwannabe:

If it was not interacting with land at the moment, we could have been looking at a TD by the weekend me thinks:




Still though, these types of BOC systems can intensity quick sometimes.
Quoting 145. Tropicsweatherpr:

We have Invest 94L!

94L INVEST 160618 1200 20.0N 92.0W ATL 15


Fast starts in the Atlantic after El Niño years are not common. Usually the opposite happens. 2010 did not get the D storm until mid-August. 1998 only had ONE storm before mid-August. 1983 did not have the A storm until mid-August. Quite interesting.
boc system? no interference. in the recent past theres been a epac system not so this time with 94
Finally an invest for a good distraction.

Trying to forget what I saw in Orlando.

Yes, as a Coast Guard rescue swimmer I saw some bad s___. Even pulling the crewman off a Liberian oil tanker breaking up in (the outer bands) hurricane David in 79 (one heck of an experience) but nothing like that in Orlando.

Have any models run on our invest yet?
Quoting 154. Tropicsweatherpr:



Looks like it will likely track just enough north to become a TC.
Quoting 155. HurricaneFan:


Looks like it will likely track just enough north to become a TC.


Things tend to spin up quickly in that region due to the mountains almost making a circle around anything that does form.
157. Ed22
Quoting 155. HurricaneFan:


Looks like it will likely track just enough north to become a TC.
Yeah we now have invest 94L on the Northwestern coast, however its a bit disorganized for now though. The next Tropical disturbance of the southeast coast of the United States (Bairs watching) and last one that tropical wave east of the Lesser Antillies (Bairs watching) also...
94L...



Well, okay. An Invest Orange.

Maybe it was, but I did not see this drought update posted... so here it is...


To show improvement since a year ago...


And the improvement since the (maybe only statistical) height of this horrible drought...
Based on the preliminary model runs to the west, and if it holds together, maybe we can get a two-fer; BOC TD, then moving West into the E-Pac with enough juice to generate their first storm of the season......................That scenario is a real longgggggggggg shot.................................:)



Quoting 158. GeoffreyWPB:

94L...





About a 50/50 chance of seeing TS Danielle in the BoC.
162. Ed22
Quoting 158. GeoffreyWPB:

94L...




Its getting its act together right now, by afternoon invest 94L's LLC will be off shore becoming more defined. Its pretty impressive now, however the Gulf coast need to monitor this developing system throughout this weekend...
Lots of vort in the region at the mid and surface level that might be able to gel in the BOC if the convection keeps up once it gets back to the water:

Surface:



Mid:

164. Ed22
Quoting 161. HurricaneFan:


About a 50/50 chance of seeing TS Danielle in the BoC.
It well get there, when it gets over warm waters of the Gulf things will change...
165. Ed22
Quoting 163. weathermanwannabe:

Lots of vort in the region at the mid and surface level that might be able to gel in the BOC if the convection keeps up once it gets back to the water:
Surface:

Mid:


Hmmm will the NHC go this afternoon, if necessary? Weather enthusiast...
If the convection holds together as it moves to the West, it could potentially spin up into a TD late tomorrow or by Monday; an interesting 24-48 hours coming up unless the land interaction really breaks it up:


The earliest D named storm was Debbie back in 2012 which formed on June 22nd.We could out beat that by like a day.
168. beell
Rip currents at the coast today [Link]
Well frost yesterday morning left a little damage. George, you asked where im located; Acme, Wa is about 15 miles east of Bellingham bay and 15 miles west of Mt Baker, at about 300' elevation.

Frost nipped squash leaves

So spent the day in Seattle setting up for the solstice fair and came home to this treat

Wind storm blasted my greenhouse pretty good, tomatoes n peppers survived fine but got watered a little heavily. Lots of wild weather action.
Quoting 159. Barefootontherocks:

Well, okay. An Invest Orange.

Maybe it was, but I did not see this drought update posted... so here it is...
Any improvement to California's dire and historic drought is good news, of course. But any celebrations are probably being shelved at the moment; with the latest update, 100% of the state has moved back under one of the five drought categories, with the few percentages of California that had been clinging to their non-drought classification giving up and sliding back into the D0 ("Abnormally Dry") category. And, of course, even with the "improvement" over the recent peaks you showed, keep in mind that things are still very far from "normal":



For comparison, here is that normal from just five years ago:



And, of course, the most important stat: El Nino is over, so the state will be moving back into deeper drought.
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 57m
0 Northern Hemisphere hurricanes since 1/15 (Alex). Only 1977 & 1987 were hurricane-free from 1/16-6/18 (since 1950)
Quoting 170. plantmoretrees:

Well frost yesterday morning left a little damage. George, you asked where im located; Acme, Wa is about 15 miles east of Bellingham bay and 15 miles west of Mt Baker, at about 300' elevation.


Don't think I could live that close but probably realistically safer than being near the southeast coast.
Quoting 171. Neapolitan:

Any improvement to California's dire and historic drought is good news, of course. But...(snip)

El Nino is over, so the state will be moving back into deeper drought.
Lol We'll see, Neo. We'll see. "But" is a telling word. Negates what what was just said, or, in this case, what was typed.

Yeah, could be 2018 or 2019 before this drought gives up the ghost. The important part of what's going on now is improvement in that Exceptional Drought category, because feedback from that exceptionally dry dirt is an major instrument for perpetuating the misery.
Headed out to visit Dad for a few days; everyone who is a Father have a Happy Father's Day and also enjoy the watch on 94L; the current land interaction is not slowing down the overall structure at all.

See Yall on Tuesday........................WW.
Quoting 174. Barefootontherocks:

Lol We'll see, Neo. We'll see. "But" is a telling word. Negates what what was just said, or, in this case, what was typed.

Yeah, could be 2018 or 2019 before this drought gives up the ghost. The important part of what's going on now is improvement in that Exceptional Drought category, because feedback from that exceptionally dry dirt is an major instrument for perpetuating the misery.
Yeah, it could be "2018 or 2019 before this drought gives up the ghost". Though it should be noted that the ongoing dry spell in which California finds itself began after the last "super" El Nino, which ended 18 years ago. Meaning, of course, it could be another 18 before this gets truly better.

(Or it could be, as a number of climatologists are coming to believe, many, many decades before that happens. Centuries even. Megadroughts tend to be like that, if that is indeed what we're seeing develop.)

FWIW, the percentage of California in the "Exceptionally Dry" category hasn't dropped a bit in over two months, and it's still higher than it's been in the many, many years leading up to February of 2014--and probably centuries before that. And the most devastating fact of all: the primary growing regions of most of the state's vitally important crops are in the deep crimson areas.

So, again: no party hats, balloons, or streamers are being wheeled out just yet; there's a L-O-N-G way to go before the mess is over, and the celebration can begin.
Sorry for the double-post.
181. IDTH
I wake up and see we now have 94L and it looks like it could be far enough north to spin up quite quickly in the BOC. The fact we could possibly get the E storm before July as well just shows that a fast start like this will at the very least, lead to a higher number of named storms.
Quoting 175. Patrap:



Despite strong land interaction, it looks good enough to possibly become a TS don't you think? We'll see what happens after it crosses the peninsula, if it's in good shape after that.
Poor California was there last year was overwhelmed by the brown
Quoting 171. Neapolitan:

Any improvement to California's dire and historic drought is good news, of course. But any celebrations are probably being shelved at the moment; with the latest update, 100% of the state has moved back under one of the five drought categories, with the few percentages of California that had been clinging to their non-drought classification giving up and sliding back into the D0 ("Abnormally Dry") category. And, of course, even with the "improvement" over the recent peaks you showed, keep in mind that things are still very far from "normal":



For comparison, here is that normal from just five years ago:



And, of course, the most important stat: El Nino is over, so the state will be moving back into deeper drought.
Interesting to see we have invest 94L and a 40/40 chance. From what I've seen with the BOC over the last few seasons, disturbances can very easily go from a yellow/orange chance to a storm. I would say there's good chances of seeing 94L form into TS Danielle - likely a weak-moderate TS just before landfall. Hopefully we'll have a recon flight to help out models - as models usually struggle with these types of systems.
185. IDTH
Starting to re warm across the far eastern atlantic and starting to cool again in some of the nino regions


Here's the 18Z run of the HWRF before this was an invest
Quoting 175. Patrap:




Let the BOC magic commence? Looks like the beginnings of TC genysis to me.
It's lows like this that pad the numbers in a huge way just like the last two
Quoting 154. Tropicsweatherpr:


000
NOUS42 KNHC 181528
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SAT 18 JUNE 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z JUNE 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-023

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 19/1800Z A. 20/0530Z,1130Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0204A CYCLONE
C. 19/1530Z C. 20/0300Z
D. 21.5N 95.0W D. 22.0N 96.5W
E. 19/1730Z TO 19/2230Z E. 20/0500Z TO 20/1130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF
189. Ed22
Quoting 182. 999Ai2016:


Despite strong land interaction, it looks good enough to possibly become a TS don't you think? We'll see what happens after it crosses the peninsula, if it's in good shape after that.
Pad the numbers?

You take that stuff and keep it .

The Nhc are the best at what they do.


It's a invest..nothing more ATM.

Semper fi
Looks like 94L will go on a some what northern path which means more time over water and as post 167 shows it'll have time to move over some nice TCHP values.We could perhaps see a 45mph T.S at best out of this before it moves into Mexico.
192. Ed22
Quoting 184. Envoirment:

Interesting to see we have invest 94L and a 40/40 chance. From what I've seen with the BOC over the last few seasons, disturbances can very easily go from a yellow/orange chance to a storm. I would say there's good chances of seeing 94L form into TS Danielle - likely a weak-moderate TS just before landfall. Hopefully we'll have a recon flight to help out models - as models usually struggle with these types of systems.
Your right we could see code red this evening...
Last night the decaying MCs blew off lake p here and it was refreshing to say the least as we tied the record high as well.

More relief today as mycherry matersare now fruiting big time. With this wetspring Iplanted them in round mounds in rows individually. The mounds are one foot higher than the garden grade. It was a good idea as the excessive rains would have swamped the regular row method. I'll add some picz later.



Quoting 156. Autistic2:



Things tend to spin up quickly in that region due to the mountains almost making a circle around anything that does form.


Yeah, the BOC is good at spinning up storms quickly.

blockquote class='blogquote'>Quoting 155. yonzabam:

Shattered records show climate change is an emergency today, scientists warn.

Guardian article
196. Ed22
Quoting 182. 999Ai2016:


Despite strong land interaction, it looks good enough to possibly become a TS don't you think? We'll see what happens after it crosses the peninsula, if it's in good shape after that.
Its about hit warm waters of the Gulf its getting better organised, however it current location is about 90.9 west 19.5 north moving towards the west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph significant strengthening is expected and invest 94L could very well become tropical storm Danielle by tonight or early Sunday morning...
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 158. GeoffreyWPB:

94L...




You can see the spin and it looks like convection is starting to cover it up, with it's more northerly track in the BOC, it's just getting started.