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NOAA and NASA: Earth’s Warmest May on Record

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 7:23 PM GMT on June 16, 2016

The warming influence of the intense 2015 - 2016 El Niño event is waning, but May 2016 was still the planet's warmest May since record keeping began in 1880, said NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) on Thursday. In the NOAA database, May 2016 came in 0.87°C (1.57°F) warmer than the 20th-century average for May, beating the previous record for May, set in 2015, by 0.02°C. This is the smallest margin the monthly global temperature has broken a record by since August 2015. NASA also reported the warmest May in its database, although the Japan Meteorological Agency placed May 2016 just a whisker (0.01°C) behind May 2015. May 2016 marked the 13th consecutive month that the global monthly temperature record was broken--the longest such streak since global temperature records began in 1880. Global ocean temperatures were the warmest on record for any May, but global land temperatures were the third warmest. Global satellite-measured temperatures in May 2016 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 2nd warmest for any May in the 38-year record, and the year-to-date period was the warmest on record, according to the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH).

The impressive global warmth in recent months is due to the steady build-up of heat-trapping greenhouse gases due to human activities, plus a spike due to a large amount of heat being released from waters in the Eastern Pacific due to the powerful 2015-16 El Niño event. This event peaked in December, and NOAA’s global surface temperature for the year so far (January-May 2016) is a remarkable 0.24°C (0.43°F) warmer than the previous record, set in 2015 (see Figure 1). Last month, NASA/GISS director Gavin Schmidt laid 99% odds on this year becoming the warmest in global records, which would make it Earth's third consecutive warmest year on record.


Figure 1. Cumulative departures from normal in global temperature (year to date) for each month in 2016. For the year thus far (January-May), 2016 is head and shoulders above all other years in the NOAA database going back to 1895. The six closest competitors are shown above. Image credit: NOAA/NCEI.



Figure 2. Departure of temperature from average for May 2016, the warmest May for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Areas with record warmth included much of Southeast Asia and parts of northern South America, Central America, the Caribbean, the Middle East, and northern and eastern Australia. Pockets of record warmth were observed across every major ocean basin, including the northwestern and southwestern Atlantic Ocean, much of the Indian Ocean, parts of the southwest Pacific Ocean and southern Pacific Ocean. Image credit: National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).


Figure 3. Departure from average for the global January-through-May temperature for the years 1880 - 2016. As is evident here and in Figure 1, this year has seen by far the warmest temperatures on record for the year-to-date period. Image credit: NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).

El Niño is over
El Niño dissipated in May 2016, giving way to ENSO-neutral conditions as sea surface temperatures continued to decrease across the tropical Pacific Ocean. According to NOAA's >Climate Prediction Center, La Niña is favored to develop during late Northern Hemisphere summer 2016, with a nearly 75 percent chance for La Niña during the fall and winter 2016–17. See our post from June 9 for more on the anticipated big switch.

Arctic sea ice at its lowest May extent on record
May sea ice extent in 2016 was the lowest in the 38-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The melt rate in the Arctic was 2 - 4 weeks ahead of the pace of 2012, which ended up with the lowest summer sea ice extent on record. However, the melt rate slowed dramatically in the first half of June, and it remains uncertain whether a record will be set. Snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere in May 2016 was the fourth lowest for May and was a record low for spring (March, April, and May), as reported from 50 years of mapping by the Rutgers University Global Snow Lab. Over the last several decades, Northern Hemisphere snow cover has changed little in autumn but has declined markedly in spring.

Four billion-dollar weather disasters in May 2016
According to the May 2016 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield, four billion-dollar weather-related disasters hit the planet in May--a wildfire in Ft. McMurray, Canada, flooding from Tropical Cyclone Roanu in Sri Lanka, flooding in Northern Europe, and a drought in India. Between January - May 2016, there were sixteen billion-dollar weather disasters. This is well ahead of pace of thirteen such disasters in January - May 2013--the year that ended up with the most billion-dollar weather disasters on record: 41. Here is the tally of billion-dollar weather disasters for January - May 2016:

1) Drought, Vietnam, 1/1 - 6/1, $6.7 billion, 0 killed
2) Drought, India, 1/1 - 6/1, $5.0 billion, 0 killed
3) Flooding, Germany, France, Austria, Poland, 5/26 - 6/6, $5.0 billion, 17 killed
4) Severe Weather, Plains-Southeast U.S., 4/10 - 4/13, $3.75 billion, 1 killed
5) Wildfire, Fort McMurray, Canada, 5/1- 5/30, $3.1 billion, 0 killed
6) Winter Weather, Eastern U.S., 1/21 - 1/24, $2.0 billion, 58 killed
7) Winter Weather, East Asia, 1/20 - 1/26, $2.0 billion, 116 killed
8) Severe Weather, Rockies-Plains-Southeast-Midwest U.S., 3/22 - 3/25, $1.75 billion
9) Tropical Cyclone Roanu, Sri Lanka, India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, China, 5/14 - 5/21, $1.7 billion, 135 killed
10) Drought, Zimbabwe, 1/1 - 3/1, $1.6 billion, 0 killed
11) Flooding, Argentina and Uruguay, 4/4 - 4/10, $1.3 billion, 0 killed
12) Severe Weather, Plains-Midwest-Southeast-Northeast U.S., 3/4 - 3/12, $1.25 billion, 6 killed
13) Severe Weather, Plains-Midwest-Southeast-Northeast U.S., 2/22 - 2/25, $1.2 billion, 10 killed
14) Flooding, Plains-Rockies U.S., 4/15 - 4/19, $1.0 billion, 9 killed
15) Severe Weather, Plains-Southeast U.S., 3/17 - 3/18, $1.0 billion, 0 killed
16) Tropical Cyclone Winston, Fiji, 2/16 - 2/22, $1.0 billion, 44 killed

And here are the four disasters from May 2016:


Disaster 1.  Cyclone Roanu brought torrential rainfall and devastating floods and landslides to much of Sri Lanka and portions of India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and China on May 14 - 21, 2016. At least 135 people were killed and damages were estimated at over $1.7 billion. In this image, we see Sri Lankan military personnel take part in relief and rescue efforts following a landslide in the village of Bulathkohupitiya on May 18, 2016. (STR/AFP/Getty Images)


Disaster 2. Canada's most expensive natural disaster in history came in May 2016, when a devastating wildfire roared through Fort McMurray, Alberta, causing at least $3.1 billion in damage. In this photo, we see a group trying to rescue animals from Fort McMurray waiting at a road block on Highway 63 as smoke rises from the fire on May 6, 2016. Image credit: Cole Burston/AFP/Getty Images.


Disaster 3. El Niño-related drought conditions that began in India in 2015 intensified during 2016, causing at least $5 billion in losses. The drought was worsened by a May heat wave that brought the hottest temperature ever recorded in India--51.0°C (123.8°F) at Phalodi on May 19, 2016. In this image, we see residents of New Delhi enduring another day of sizzling heat on Monday, May 2, 2016. Temperatures  hit a record 46°C (114.8°F) at Indira Gandhi International Airport and 44°C (111.2°F) at the city’s Safdarjung observatory that day. Image credit: Ramesh Sharma/India Today Group/Getty Images.


Disaster 4. Extratropical storm "Elvira" spawned numerous severe thunderstorms and torrential rains across parts of northern Europe between May 26 and June 6, killing at least 17 people and causing $5 billion in damage. The heaviest damage was in Germany, France, Austria, Poland and Belgium. In this image, we see firemen rescuing two women on June 3, 2016 in Simbach am Inn, Germany. (Photo by Sebastian Widmann/Getty Images)

Notable global heat and cold marks set for May 2016
Hottest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: 52.2°C (126.0°F) at Larkana, Pakistan, 19 May
Coldest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: -37.6°C (-35.7°F) at Geo Summit, Greenland, 5 May
Hottest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: 40.3°C (104.5°F) at Derby Aerodrome, Australia, 3 May
Coldest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: -78.1°C (-108.6°F) at Nico, Antarctica, 15 May
(Courtesy of Maximiliano Herrera.)

Major weather stations that set (not tied) new all-time heat or cold records in May 2016
A record heat wave in Southeast Asia led to an uncommonly long list of all-time local heat records in that region:
Oaxaca Airport (Mexico) max. 39.1°C, 1 May
Car Nicobar (India) max. 35.5°C, 2 May; increased to 36.5°C on 9 May
Truong Sa (Vietnam) max. 36.2°C, 3 May; increased to 36.9°C on 14 May
Jaffna (Sri Lanka) max. 37.1°C, 3 May
Mersing (Malaysia) max. 37.8°C, 4 May; increased to 38.2°C on 18 May
Phuket (Thailand) max. 37.9°C, 5 May
Iba (Philippines) max. 39.2°C, 5 May
Nakhon Sawan (Thailand) max. 43.5°C, 6 May; increased to 43.7°C on 7 May
Mae Sot (Thailand) max. 41.8°C, 7 May
Saravane (Laos) max. 42.0°C, 7 May
Dawei (Myanmar) max. 39.5°C, 7 May
Pachuca (Mexico) max. 32.5°C, 8 May
Kota Kinabalu (Malaysia) max. 36.5°C, 8 May
Toungoo (Myanmar) max. 43.0°C, 10 May; increased to 43.4°C on 11 May; increased to 44.0°C on 16 May
Mengla (China) max. 38.2°C, 10 May; increased to 38.4 on 11 May
Phitsanulok (Thailand) max. 42.7°C, 11 May
Surat Thani (Thailand) max. 41.4°C, 11 May
Houei Sai (Laos) max. 41.2°C, 11 May
Chiang Mai (Thailand) max. 42.5°C, 11 May
Chiang Rai (Thailand) max. 41.8°C, 12 May
Koh Sichang (Thailand) max. 38.0°C, 16 May
Mergui (Myanmar) max. 39.5°C, 18 May
Phalodi (India) max. 50.5°C; 18 May increased to 51.0°C on 19 May:  New national record high for India
Churu (India) max. 49.1°C, 18 May; increased to 50.2°C on 19 May
Kandla (India) max. 48.4°C, 18 May
Surendranagar (India) max. 47.8°C, 18 May
Amreli (India) max. 46.8°C, 19 May
Bikaner (India) max. 49.5°C, 19 May
Jodhpur (India) max. 48.8°C, 19 May
Pilani (India) max. 47.5°C, 19 May
Ahmedabad (India) max. 48.0°C, 19 May
Erinpura (India) max.  48.4°C, 19 May
Sawai Madhopur  (India) max. 48.7°C, 19 May
Jalore (India) max. 48.9°C, 19 May
Mount Abu (India) max. 39.4°C, 19 May
Bhopal (India) max. 46.7°C, 20 May

(Courtesy of Maximiliano Herrera.)

One all-time national heat record set in May 2016
One nation--India--set a record in May 2016 for its all-time hottest temperature on record. From January through June 16, 2016, a total of eleven nations or territories tied or set all-time records for their hottest temperature in recorded history--which is a very large number of records for so early in the year. One all-time cold temperature record has been set so far in 2016 (in Hong Kong.) "All-time" record here refers to the warmest or coldest temperature ever reliably reported in a nation or territory. The period of record varies from country to country and station to station, but it is typically a few decades to a century or more. Most nations do not maintain official databases of extreme temperature records, so the national temperature records reported here are in many cases not official. Our data source is international weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, one of the world's top climatologists, who maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website. If you reproduce this list of extremes, please cite Maximiliano Herrera as the primary source of the weather records. Here are 2016's all-time heat and cold records as of June 16:

Niger set its all-time hottest record on June 8, 2016, when the mercury hit 49.0°C (120.2°F) at Bilma.

India set its all-time hottest record on May 19, 2016, when the mercury hit 51.0°C (123.8°F) at Phalodi.

Maldives set its all-time hottest record on April 30, 2016, when the mercury hit 35.0°C (94.8°F) at Hanimaadhoo.

Thailand set its all-time hottest record on April 28, 2016, when the mercury hit 44.6°C (112.3°F) at Mae Hong Son.

Cambodia set its all-time hottest record on April 15, 2016, when the mercury hit 42.6°C (108.7°F) at Preah Vihea.

Burkina Faso set its all-time hottest record on April 13, 2016, when the mercury hit 47.5°C (117.5°F) at Dori.

Laos set its all-time hottest record on April 12, 2016, when the mercury hit 42.3°C (108.1°F) at Seno.

Vanuatu in the South Pacific set its all-time hottest record on February 8, 2016, when the mercury hit 36.2°C (97.2°F) at Lamap Malekula.

Tonga set its all-time hottest record on February 1, 2016, when the mercury hit 35.5°C (95.9°F) at Niuafoou.

Wallis and Futuna Territory (France) set a new territorial heat record with 35.8°C (96.4°F) on January 10, 2016 at Futuna Airport. This is the second year in a row that Wallis and Futuna has beaten its all-time heat mark; the previous record was a 35.5°C (95.9°F) reading on January 19, 2015 at the Futuna Airport.

Botswana set its all-time hottest record on January 7, 2016, when the mercury hit 43.8°C (110.8°F) at Maun.

Hong Kong Territory (China) set its all-time coldest mark on January 24, 2016, when the mercury dipped to -6.0°C (21.2°F) at Tai Mo Shan.

Antarctica records its warmest minimum temperature on record
On May 27, 2016, the daily low temperature at Esperanza Base, on the outer end of the Antarctic Peninsula, was 8.8°C (47.8°F), which appears to be the warmest daily low on record anywhere in Antarctica, including the Antarctic Peninsula, King George Island, and other islands lying below the 60°S latitude that are considered part of the continent by the Antarctic Treaty. (WU weather historian Christopher Burt has a post on Antarctica’s all-time high of 17.5°C (63.5°F), set at Esperanza in March 2015.) Herrera has not found any other examples of daily lows in Antarctica any milder than 6.5°C. “For a continental record, this was smashed by an amazing margin,” he stated in an email. The high temperature at Esperanza the previous day--May 26, 2016--hit 17.2°C, which was its second highest temperature on record, just behind the famous 17.5°C record set last year. The late May 2016 records are truly remarkable since they were set less than a month before the onset of meteorological winter.

Africa records its warmest minimum temperature on record
On May 1, 2016, the highest minimum temperature ever recorded in Africa occurred, with a 37.5°C (99.5°F) reading at Yelimane, Mali. According to Herrera, only one minimum temperature in Africa was higher--a 38.0°C reading at Massawa, Eritrea on 30 June 1947. However, the values at that time were all rounded to 1°C, so this may not have been the actual minimum.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I'm expecting an army of hurricanes to help combat climate change.


Thanks, guys! And in very related news:

Antarctic CO2 Hit 400 PPM for First Time in 4 Million Years

"We’re officially living in a new world.

"Carbon dioxide has been steadily rising since the start of the Industrial Revolution, setting a new high year after year. There’s a notable new entry to the record books. The last station on Earth without a 400 parts per million (ppm) reading has reached it.

"A little 400 ppm history. Three years ago, the world’s gold standard carbon dioxide observatory passed the symbolic threshold of 400 ppm. Other observing stations have steadily reached that threshold as carbon dioxide spreads across the planet’s atmosphere at various points since then. Collectively, the world passed the threshold for a month last year.

"In the remote reaches of Antarctica, the South Pole Observatory carbon dioxide observing station cleared 400 ppm on May 23, according to an announcement from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Wednesday. That’s the first time it’s passed that level in 4 million years (no, that’s not a typo)."

Source article: Scientific American
Thanks for the updates, Gentlemen....
the retention ponds are way down here in cocoa bch florida but if you go west of 95 they are filled to the brim.
Thanks for the update. The rain kept us from being above normal again. finally stopped raining and the heat is back.

A Few Clouds
93°F
34°C
Humidity 62%
Wind Speed S 8 mph
Barometer 30.00 in (1015.7 mb)
Dewpoint 78°F (26°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 109°F (43°C)
Last update 16 Jun 1:53 pm CDT
Thanks Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson!
Little MJO coming over at the beginning of July also
Gentlemen. I couldn't find a single mistake in grammar or spelling. You won't give the blog anything to criticize.
Thank You Both for the expected update of the global temps for May; I think that June will show a continuation of the past several months. 

Here is a current real time portrait of the highs across the US this afternoon under the bubble of cloudless high pressure across a large portion of the Nation:



Thanks, gentlemen!

Once again, agencies seem to disagree. Fig. 2 shows, that Western Finland had record warmth, but Eastern Finland had not. Publication based on FMI data translates as: "May average temperature was 3-5 degrees (Celsius) higher than usual in large portion of the country. Departure was exceptionally high except for the western portion [...]"

They backed off a bit on the warmer days, this is supposed to humid too, Oh, yea...
nice afternoon read thanks
Quoting 8. Grothar:

Gentlemen. I couldn't find a single mistake in grammar or spelling. You won't give the blog anything to criticize.


A nei!

Gro-
so what do you make of the effects of a moderate MJO over the Carib in early July? The waters are warm and it won't take much for a major blow up. A nei!


Tornadic supercell approaching Martinsburg, WV.
looking at scatterometer ASCAT A and B and RapidScan and OSCAT and OBs

there is certainly a circulation just NE of NEstern Honduras
Quoting 8. Grothar:

Gentlemen. I couldn't find a single mistake in grammar or spelling. You won't give the blog anything to criticize.

I could - High temperature in Valledupar Santa Rosa is in Colombia, not "Columbia" :-)
Quoting 12. bigwes6844:


It will be a very gradual development, but once it gets over those waters of the BOC, it will get its act together, still has to be over land until Monday.
Happy 3333 day everybody!
Good afternoon everyone.

Still hot for Anchorage.. Forecast is hotter today and is 80F, but yesterday I hit 82F as a high. (With a 76F forecast)

The heat tecord was 84F and was set just last year... Wonder if we will break it.
What I find most interesting, and frightening, about the 1880-2016 anomaly departure chart is the steep incline in heating in the period (modern record keeping methods) from 1980 through the present; a marked increase above 1F between 1980 and around 2005 then a consistent jump towards the 2 degree mark between 2005 and 2016. 

And this is a global average which does not take into account certain pockets around the world where the average temperature increases are much higher such as in the Arctic (air temps) and places like the Gulf of Maine in the United States (ssts).......................Mind boggling.


circulation developing just NE of Roatan
Quoting 18. Climate175:

It will be a very gradual development, but once it gets over those waters of the BOC, it will get its act together, still has to be over land until Monday.
yep but it is a nice blowup so far.
Quoting 2. Neapolitan:

Thanks, guys! And in very related news:

Antarctic CO2 Hit 400 PPM for First Time in 4 Million Years

"We%u2019re officially living in a new world.

"Carbon dioxide has been steadily rising since the start of the Industrial Revolution, setting a new high year after year. There%u2019s a notable new entry to the record books. The last station on Earth without a 400 parts per million (ppm) reading has reached it.

"A little 400 ppm history. Three years ago, the world%u2019s gold standard carbon dioxide observatory passed the symbolic threshold of 400 ppm. Other observing stations have steadily reached that threshold as carbon dioxide spreads across the planet%u2019s atmosphere at various points since then. Collectively, the world passed the threshold for a month last year.

"In the remote reaches of Antarctica, the South Pole Observatory carbon dioxide observing station cleared 400 ppm on May 23, according to an announcement from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Wednesday. That%u2019s the first time it%u2019s passed that level in 4 million years (no, that%u2019s not a typo)."

Source article: Scientific American
.

No one born or alive today will ever
Live in a world where co2 is below 400ppm
26. IDTH
Quoting 23. stormpetrol:



circulation developing just NE of Roatan

hmmmm.....
Quoting 20. Dakster:

Good afternoon everyone.

Still hot for Anchorage.. Forecast is hotter today and is 80F, but yesterday I hit 82F as a high. (With a 76F forecast)

The heat tecord was 84F and was set just last year... Wonder if we will break it.

76.7F here, Forecast is 84F. Rest of the week is just ugly...
Quoting 8. Grothar:

Gentlemen. I couldn't find a single mistake in grammar or spelling. You won't give the blog anything to criticize.


But I absolutely loved Bob's "hot, dry water" from a few blogs ago.
Quoting 10. elioe:

Thanks, gentlemen!

Once again, agencies seem to disagree. Fig. 2 shows, that Western Finland had record warmth, but Eastern Finland had not. Publication based on FMI data translates as: "May average temperature was 3-5 degrees (Celsius) higher than usual in large portion of the country. Departure was exceptionally high except for the western portion [...]"


Figure 2 is a land/ocean percentiles map. You are trying to compare land anomalies to percentiles. Here is the anomaly map, resolution is an issue as always:

Quoting 17. Greg01:


I could - High temperature in Valledupar Santa Rosa is in Colombia, not "Columbia" :-)


Adidas scores an own goal with Colombia (not Columbia) uniforms

So does WU!

Quoting 21. weathermanwannabe:

What I find most interesting, and frightening, about the 1880-2016 anomaly departure chart is the steep incline in heating in the period (modern record keeping methods) from 1980 through the present; a marked increase above 1F between 1980 and around 2005 then a consistent jump towards the 2 degree mark between 2005 and 2016. �

And this is a global average which does not take into account certain pockets around the world where the average temperature increases are much higher such as in the Arctic (air temps) and places like the Gulf of Maine in the United States (ssts).......................Mind boggling.

Have you looked at the land-only data? Pheeow!
Quoting 23. stormpetrol:



circulation developing just NE of Roatan


hey I said it first!! lol

how are u mate
Quoting 20. Dakster:

Good afternoon everyone.

Still hot for Anchorage.. Forecast is hotter today and is 80F, but yesterday I hit 82F as a high. (With a 76F forecast)

The heat tecord was 84F and was set just last year... Wonder if we will break it.


is tecord "blog-speak" for "today's record"?
Quoting 10. elioe:

Thanks, gentlemen!

Once again, agencies seem to disagree. Fig. 2 shows, that Western Finland had record warmth, but Eastern Finland had not. Publication based on FMI data translates as: "May average temperature was 3-5 degrees (Celsius) higher than usual in large portion of the country. Departure was exceptionally high except for the western portion [...]"


I think the key words are "exceptionally high" - the western portion was still high. Not sure what point you're making . . .

From your own link.

Quoting 29. Naga5000:



No, I'm not comparing anomalies to percentiles. Record warmth can't be achieved if the warmth is not exceptional. Those four grid cells of NOAA figure containing the area between 20-30 east and 60-70 north correspond to Finnish land area pretty well. But I've left a comment to the authors of publication, perhaps they can shed more light tomorrow.

Edit: they say that 20 observing stations broke the record, but they don't state which stations, I asked for clarification.
Quoting 28. SunnyDaysFla:



But I absolutely loved Bob's "hot, dry water" from a few blogs ago.


What? You never heard of dry ice???
Quoting 33. daddyjames:



is tecord "blog-speak" for "today's record"?


Yeah... You lost my blog speak to English dictionary, didn't you?
Thanks for the impressive and thorough article on the weather in May, Doc and Bob!

Severe weather so far in Central Europe: A LOT of still ongoing heavy rain in the Alps and Bavaria (here the amounts of rain during 12h for Switzerland with up to 85 litres); some strong thunderstorms (supercells) earlier in eastern Bavaria, now moved to the Czech Republic. Still some more storms and heavy rains are active elsewhere in France and Germany, but so far no report of severe mayhem as much as I could see. There is a soccer match of the European Championship between Germany and Poland right now, so news are slow anyway. Wait and see what the news will tell us tomorrow! There is a surface low forming right now at the border between Germany and Czech Republic which should move north during the night, producing more rains further north.

This afternoon there was an incident in the southern Italian island of Stromboli where the current strong winds from the Sahara, the sirocco, slammed a hydrofoil with 117 passengers onto the beach. Thankfully all the folks could be rescued unhurt but the action had obviously been pretty dramatic:



Youtube video from a different angle.
Quoting 14. rmbjoe1954:



A nei!

Gro-
so what do you make of the effects of a moderate MJO over the Carib in early July? The waters are warm and it won't take much for a major blow up. A nei!



Ja, det er det! It won't take much. How much shear left over will be the key.
Quoting 17. Greg01:


I could - High temperature in Valledupar Santa Rosa is in Colombia, not "Columbia" :-)


Error-caster :)
Quoting 34. daddyjames:



The point I'm trying to make is: Fig. 2. shows the grid cell between 20-25 east and 60-65 north to have record high May average temperature. That's Western Finland, the part of Finland that shouldn't be even exceptionally warm according to the link I gave.
Quoting 36. elioe:



No, I'm not comparing anomalies to percentiles. Record warmth can't be achieved if the warmth is not exceptional. Those four grid cells of NOAA figure containing the area between 20-30 east and 60-70 north correspond to Finnish land area pretty well. But I've left a comment to the authors of publication, perhaps they can shed more light tomorrow.


I think they were pointing out this:

Persistent heat across globe makes a baker’s dozen for the record books
Unusually warm conditions were present across much of northern Europe. In Finland, 20 locations set new all-time high May temperature records.

Quoting 42. Dakster:



But who is the fruit cake?


The Dude.
47. Ed22
Quoting 26. IDTH:


hmmmm.....
This tropical disturbance is organized and a Low Level Circulation could very well be their. Its current location 83.7 north and 16.5 north not moving much...
Quoting 44. elioe:



The point I'm trying to make is: Fig. 2. shows the grid cell between 20-25 east and 60-65 north to have record high May average temperature. That's Western Finland, the part of Finland that shouldn't be even exceptionally warm according to the link I gave.


They average the temperature (or the proxy used to derive the temperature) over a set grid area. Yes, if they had a finer grid they would be able to capture more detail. But It does not necessarily show any incorrect information.
Good day

It's 90 and feeling like 100 on the island this afternoon. Kind of day I just want to hide in the bedroom with the AC!

Hope all is well with everybody out there....

Lindy
Quoting 46. ElConando:



The Dude.


I was going to go with Richard Simmons... But that will work too.
51. IDTH
South Pole is last place on Earth to pass global warming milestone

June 15, 2016 The Earth passed another unfortunate milestone May 23 when carbon dioxide surpassed 400 parts per million (ppm) at the South Pole for the first time in 4 million years.

Well, the records are just a-fallin' everywhere. If this does not get you to sit up and take notice, nothing will.



Edit: did not see nea's post below - guess "he saw it first". ;) Though not sure anyone wanted to see it.
53. Ed22
Quoting 32. wunderkidcayman:



hey I said it first!! lol

how are u mate
Well someone put in this blog please we to see it...
Quoting 10. elioe:

Thanks, gentlemen!

Once again, agencies seem to disagree. Fig. 2 shows, that Western Finland had record warmth, but Eastern Finland had not. Publication based on FMI data translates as: "May average temperature was 3-5 degrees (Celsius) higher than usual in large portion of the country. Departure was exceptionally high except for the western portion [...]"
1) Please explain what you mean by "once again". That term implies there've been earlier inter-agency disagreements; can you please provide details?

2) In Fig. 2, all of Finland can be covered by four or so grid squares, some of which are comprised of other areas outside the nation's borders...



...so it's probably not reasonable to expect to get high-resolution temperature data from it, especially not the type shown on the map at the link you provided:



So: no disagreement; only unreasonable expectations. ;-)
Quoting 49. LindyVirginIslander:

Good day

It's 90 and feeling like 100 on the island this afternoon. Kind of day I just want to hide in the bedroom with the AC!

Hope all is well with everybody out there....

Lindy
'

At least you have beaches, all I have are miserable cows . . .
Quoting 55. daddyjames:

'

At least you have beaches, all I have are miserable cows . . .


There is always dirtybird.
Quoting 55. daddyjames:

'

At least you have beaches, all I have are miserable cows . . .


Drink upstream from the herd and always stand upwind... That's about all I know about cows.
I know its close to the land but nhc may have to code orange this system at the 8 TWO. Lets see if the flare up continues.
Quoting 56. OKsky:



There is always dirtybird.


that's too far south of me to be able to enjoy any beer, would you recommend it? I have to run to to the OKC area sometime in the near future, maybe I'll make a detour . . .
Quoting 57. Dakster:



Drink upstream from the herd and always stand upwind... That's about all I know about cows.


Dang, I think I had that backwards. Explains a lot. Also, never stand at the south end of a cow, or the north end of a steer.
Where will it go and when?


Quoting 58. bigwes6844:

I know its close to the land but nhc may have to code orange this system at the 8 TWO. Lets see if the flare up continues.

62. Ed22
Quoting 16. wunderkidcayman:

looking at scatterometer ASCAT A and B and RapidScan and OSCAT and OBs

there is certainly a circulation just NE of NEstern Honduras
The conservativeness of the NHC is problematic, look this tropical disturbance in the Western Caribbean sea just Southwest of Jamaica getting it act together; not moving much I give this System a 40/50 chance at development before it reaches the Yucatan peninsula by Saturday and over the (Bay of Campeche) Gulf of Mexico Sunday night/Monday morning...
Quoting 59. daddyjames:



that's too far south of me to be able to enjoy any beer, would you recommend it? I have to run to to the OKC area sometime in the near future, maybe I'll make a detour . . .


Honestly, its really not the kind of lake you go out of your way for, I was sorta kidding. If you just want to sit in the shade by some water it works well enough, but I wouldn't be too excited about getting in it... I mean it is called "dirtybird" for a reason. If you are up north, there are much better lakes... esp if you are northeast.
Quoting 59. daddyjames:



that's too far south of me to be able to enjoy any beer, would you recommend it? I have to run to to the OKC area sometime in the near future, maybe I'll make a detour . . .


oh, i was thinking the BBQ place - not the state park . . .
Quoting 61. JeffreyLXV:

Where will it go and when?



It is heading for the Bay of Campeche, and it should be in that area by Monday, and if it forms, making landfall most likely in Mexico.
Knoxville, TN

Temperature 94.6
Pressure 29.78 in
Visibility 10.0 miles
Clouds Few 4000 ft
Scattered Clouds 25000 ft
Heat Index 106 °F
Dew Point 74 °F
Humidity 52%
Rainfall 0.00 in
Just out and rarely issued: warnings of category 3 for extemely severe weather tomorrow in parts of Eastern Europe by Estofex:



A level 3 was issued for E-Hungary, W-Romania to SW-Ukraine mainly for damaging hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 3 was issued for W-Belarus, NE Poland and Lithuania mainly for an augmented tornado risk (a significant event is possible), damaging wind gusts, large or very large hail and excessive rain. ...

[From the] ... SYNOPSIS ...
Positive tilted upper trough remains anchored over W-/CNTRL- and N-Europe. A significant impulse evolves along its eastern fringe over the Czech Republic/far E-Germany and Poland. This vortex deepens rapidly along a pronounced baroclinic zone while moving to the N/NE. On the one hand, northeastbound surging tongue of high IPV values indicates the substantial dynamics, which accompany that process, on the other hand they highlight a pronounced dry slot, which works its way from the Czech Republich over Poland to the NE.
Accompanied LL-vortex features a strong deepening rate for this time of year with surface pressure falling to 995 - 990 hPa. Phase diagrams feature transformation towards a shallow warm-core vortex, which reflects an healthy looking wrap-around occlusion. This occlusion advects a warm/moist and rather unstable air mass to the depression's center. A blend of different models places the depression over N/NW Poland at 12 UTC and over the CNTRL Baltic Sea during peak strength around 00 UTC. There, models diverge regarding further timing and track during its approach towards Finland. Reasoning probably is growing uncertainty how fast this vortex becomes vertically stacked. Until then, models in general show a unique picture with EZMW a tad slower compared to the German model suite. ...

Source and more meteorological details (language used in the snippets above sound like the description of a tropical system: "warm-core vortex", "vertically stacked" .... They even used a red font to emphasize the warning, umm: "A dangerous outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast over parts of E-CNTRL Europe which includes large and damaging hail, severe wind gusts, flash-flood producing rain and tornadoes!").

One of the pase diagrams for "Karin" (NAVGEM):



Surface map for tomorrow.
Every time I c the word conservative in a Nhc comment, I throw up a lil in the back of me mouth.
with vary low wind shear is the gulf at this time the gulf is wide open for any thing too get going

Quoting 58. bigwes6844:

I know its close to the land but nhc may have to code orange this system at the 8 TWO. Lets see if the flare up continues.



how ever is there any thing at the surface like a surface low at this time?
72. Ed22
Quoting 22. stormpetrol:


Its getting more organized and firing and re-firing thundershowers, if it continues throughout to night Code Orange or Red could be imminent...
One question regarding the El Nino warming of the atmosphere -- does the ocean, which generally is cooler than the air above it, actually emit more heat ("heat being released from waters in the Eastern Pacific"), or does it just absorb less warmth from the air, thus leaving the air warmer. It's counter-intuitive for heat to leave a cooler region for a warmer one, but the reduced absorption of heat from the atmosphere would have much the same effect. Just a small nit-pick.
Quoting 72. Ed22:

Its getting more organized and firing and re-firing thundershowers, if it continues throughout to night Code Orange or Red could be imminent...


but is there any thing going on at the surface ? if not this may be nothing but a open wave right now
Looking at visible satellite of the Northwest Caribbean disturbance, it seems there is a broad clockwise fanning of clouds that would indicate upper high pressure over the area, which would facilitate tropical development. Also, Dvorak is showing persistent intense storms just off the Honduran coast, almost stationary. Any views from our veteran commenters.
Quoting 71. Tazmanian:



how ever is there any thing at the surface like a surface low at this time?


My name is no, my sign is no, my number is no
You need to let it go, you need to let it go
Need to let it go
Nah to the ah to the, no, no, no
Gom sea height anomaly.

I don't think the BOC storm will develop. Not enough time on water. Could give rain to Central America. But that's about it. I'm giving it a 0 / 10 chance. Aligned with the NHC
Once the invest is declared we will have more info to pass along.
Quoting 54. Neapolitan:


Point 1.) here beginning at comment 158, NASA/NOAA/FMI disagreement, that would need massive shifts between 1951-1980 and 1981-2010 base periods to be explainable.

There have been also other interagency disagreements, such as NSIDC/FMI disagreement about Baltic Sea ice cover last month.

Point 2.) See my other comments here.

Of course it is possible to get record warmth in a 5*5 degree grid cell, if huge majority of that area hasn't had even exceptional warmth. Only very unlikely.

But, as I said before, this time I've left a comment for the Finnish professionals. I'm waiting to get more information, if they reply. I'll get back to this matter in that case.
No green ball Atlantic yet.
Quoting 72. Ed22:

Its getting more organized and firing and re-firing thundershowers, if it continues throughout to night Code Orange or Red could be imminent...

I don't think we will have code Red but orange is possible this thing has came together good
Quoting 76. Tazmanian:



but is there any thing going on at the surface ? if not this may be nothing but a open wave right now


those are Sfc obs on the sat and yes there is a spin as seen on obs as well as scatterometer imagery
12Z GEOS-5 is leaning even harder toward a storm off Carolina. This run is a bit more off shore and stronger, but messy..


This is as south as it gets before heading north toward Carolina again.
Quoting 86. wunderkidcayman:



those are Sfc obs on the sat and yes there is a spin as seen on obs as well as scatterometer imagery




good are the barometer falling in the area?
18Z sfc charts has shifted the tropical wave further East in line with sfc obs and the heavier convection



i think we may see 94L tonight with a vary good ch of seeing Danielle at some point be for we end the weekend

the next ? is could we see Earl be for we closed out june ?
Quoting 91. wunderkidcayman:

18Z sfc charts has shifted the tropical wave further East in line with sfc obs and the heavier convection






what dos that mean dos that mean the NHC is off on its X on the map?
Quoting 89. Tazmanian:




good are the barometer falling in the area?


yes pressures are falling
Quoting 92. Tazmanian:

i think we may see 94L tonight with a vary good ch of seeing Danielle at some point be for we end the weekend

the next ? is could we see Earl be for we closed out june ?


agreed
Quoting 94. wunderkidcayman:



yes pressures are falling


thats good has at the 2pm out look the NHC said there was no evidence of a surface
circulation


i gust there is one now?
Quoting 94. wunderkidcayman:



yes pressures are falling


still pretty high at 1014 mb, but it is a start
Quoting 57. Dakster:



Drink upstream from the herd and always stand upwind... That's about all I know about cows.


I would like to add they are quite tasty as well.
100. elioe
It seems that the swirl, that was near 84.5 W 19 N at 14:45 UTC, had moved to near 85.5 W 18.5 N by 20:45 UTC. By this rate, it will be inland Belize/Mexico in eleven hours or so. Convection firing both south and north, the southern side producing that huge cloud mass extending to inland Nicaragua/Honduras. But the northern convection remains not organized. Well, it still has those eleven hours to become something more significant.
850mb Vorticity


500mb vorticity


Only thing at the surface is over land. We are seeing only mid-level circulation where the convection is. Prolly remain that way until it gets to BOC, and then it'll have a very short time to develop. IMHO
Quoting 60. daddyjames:



Dang, I think I had that backwards. Explains a lot. Also, never stand at the south end of a cow, or the north end of a steer.


And don't stand anywhere near a bull.
You guys are leaving out some important stuff. :)
Talk about this flare up becoming something is serious. Can't wait till the 8pm TWO comes out. Im gonna say 50/50% code orange.
Quoting 101. daddyjames:

850mb Vorticity


500mb vorticity


Only thing at the surface is over land. We are seeing only mid-level circulation where the convection is. Prolly remain that way until it gets to BOC, and then it'll have a very short time to develop. IMHO


true, wonder how the NHC will see it
Quoting 98. Hurricanes101:



still pretty high at 1014 mb, but it is a start


1012mb now
Quoting 101. daddyjames:

850mb Vorticity


500mb vorticity


Only thing at the surface is over land. We are seeing only mid-level circulation where the convection is. Prolly remain that way until it gets to BOC, and then it'll have a very short time to develop. IMHO


Good afternoon,

I agree entirely. Right now all we have there is thunderstorms. Puerto Cabezas has an East wind and pressure of 1015 mbs which means no low level circulation. Winds are also light. Pressures in the area relatively high at 1014 and higher. One interesting feature though is a building high overhead and low shear around 5 to 10 knots so if it sits there long enough or is a real slow mover something could spin up.
Quoting 16. wunderkidcayman:

looking at scatterometer ASCAT A and B and RapidScan and OSCAT and OBs

there is certainly a circulation just NE of NEstern Honduras

Can you link the OSCAT? Thought ISRO ceased operation of OSCAT in 4/2014..

Quoting 99. RitaandIke:



I would like to add they are quite tasty as well.


I understand we drink their milk too.
Quoting 107. Skyepony:


Can you link the OSCAT? Thought ISRO ceased operation of OSCAT in 4/2014..

Here's this morning's ASCAT A..total miss. ASCAT-B missed even worse. Closest Rapidscat, yesterday..


OSCAT died in 2014.
Quoting 107. Skyepony:


Can you link the OSCAT? Thought ISRO ceased operation of OSCAT in 4/2014..




sorry meant WindSAT

Quoting 109. kmanislander:



OSCAT died in 2014.


yes
I meant WindSAT

Quoting 109. kmanislander:



OSCAT died in 2014.

Those ASCATs I linked were from yesterday as well. That is why I edited my comment. OSI SAF hasn't updated their page in nearly 24hrs.
Quoting 108. Dakster:



I understand we drink their milk too.


Another good point!
Oh yeah, the weather...105 heat index in SE Houston. Not as bad as some places, but still.
Quoting 111. Skyepony:


Those ASCATs I linked were from yesterday as well. That is why I edited my comment. OSI SAF hasn't updated their page in nearly 24hrs.


I looked at this morning's ASCAT pass and it showed typical Northerly wind shift that one would expect with a TWave in the vicinity.
Quoting 111. Skyepony:


Those ASCATs I linked were from yesterday as well. That is why I edited my comment. OSI SAF hasn't updated their page in nearly 24hrs.


This morning

Quoting 101. daddyjames:

850mb Vorticity



That 850 vort over OH is what GEOS-5 has trying to spin up once it hits water..
117. Tcwx2
Why has this system taken so much of a jump to you guys? Still looks pretty bad for it in the future in my opinion.
118. beell
Quoting 101. daddyjames:

850mb Vorticity


500mb vorticity


Only thing at the surface is over land. We are seeing only mid-level circulation where the convection is. Prolly remain that way until it gets to BOC, and then it'll have a very short time to develop. IMHO


The 850 vort has my vote, dj (and kman)

On RGB, follow (only if you want to) the yellowish tinted (low cloud) Control/scroll (if you want to) to zoom in. Everything else is moving of to the north or northwest.

Wave axis and wave crudely represented here:



Quoting 110. wunderkidcayman:



sorry meant WindSAT



yes
I meant WindSAT




The WINDSAT pages I looked at are a complete miss for the Caribbean today.
Quoting 106. kmanislander:



Good afternoon,

I agree entirely. Right now all we have there is thunderstorms. Puerto Cabezas has an East wind and pressure of 1015 mbs which means no low level circulation. Winds are also light. Pressures in the area relatively high at 1014 and higher. One interesting feature though is a building high overhead and low shear around 5 to 10 knots so if it sits there long enough or is a real slow mover something could spin up.


really could have fooled me Im watching live obs data and Puerto Cabezas, Nic. I'm seeing winds N-NNE also N and NE wind in Nern and Eern Honduras

current pressures in Honduras and Nic. at 1012mb and falling also the W Caribeean and Yucatan buoy reading 1013mb and 1014mb respectively and falling

it has slowed down quite a bit in forward speed the NHC sfc charts had to push the tropical wave back E from 87W at 12Z to now 84W at 18Z
Quoting 118. beell:



The 850 vort has my vote, dj (and kman)

On RGB, follow (only if you want to) the yellowish tinted (low cloud) Control/scroll (if you want to) to zoom in. Everything else is moving of to the north or northwest.

Wave axis and wave crudely represented here:






Lots of bark but no bite with all that rain at the moment. Proximity to land also an issue.
Quoting 115. Skyepony:



That 850 vort over OH is what GEOS-5 has trying to spin up once it hits water..


yeah - it almost was looking like a "land-cane" earlier today.
Quoting 120. wunderkidcayman:



really could have fooled me Im watching live obs data and Puerto Cabezas, Nic. I'm seeing winds N-NNE also N and NE wind in Nern and Eern Honduras

current pressures in Honduras and Nic. at 1012mb and falling also the W Caribeean and Yucatan buoy reading 1013mb and 1014mb respectively and falling

it has slowed down quite a bit in forward speed the NHC sfc charts had to push the tropical wave back E from 87W at 12Z to now 84W at 18Z


Wind shift to do with passage of TWave. Same for pressures which are normal for all intents and purposes.
Have to run now.
Quoting 119. kmanislander:



The WINDSAT pages I looked at are a complete miss for the Caribbean today.


hmm seems to have missed the descending pass

anyway looking forward to see what the next ASCAT WINDSAT AND RapidSCAN overnight as well as sfc obs

also recent obs from Honduran bay islands as well has N mainland coast pressures now down 1010mb/1009mb
Quoting 121. kmanislander:



Lots of bark but no bite with all that rain at the moment. Proximity to land also an issue.


agreed, not much going on at the surface here. Would have to stay over the Caribbean for a few days to be anything.
The GFS attemps to do something with the storm once it gets into the BOC.
128. beell
Quoting 121. kmanislander:



Lots of bark but no bite with all that rain at the moment. Proximity to land also an issue.


And at some point, (Saturday morning-over the peninsula?) it may have to cross the northwestern periphery of the upper ridge.

20 knots of southeasterly trades along with 15-20 knot UL southwesterlies would yield about 20-25 knots of zonal (westerly) shear (rough approx)
Quoting 120. wunderkidcayman:



really could have fooled me Im watching live obs data and Puerto Cabezas, Nic. I'm seeing winds N-NNE also N and NE wind in Nern and Eern Honduras

current pressures in Honduras and Nic. at 1012mb and falling also the W Caribeean and Yucatan buoy reading 1013mb and 1014mb respectively and falling

it has slowed down quite a bit in forward speed the NHC sfc charts had to push the tropical wave back E from 87W at 12Z to now 84W at 18Z


Here's what you are seeing.

Winds at surface all going west/northwest in the Caribbean right now.



edit: get my east and west mixed up.
GFS shows the impressive wave that came off West Africa a few days ago staying weak, and then trying to get together in the Caribbean, still far out but might want to maybe eye the wave.
Boy it is hot . . . I think i preferred last year's summer.



Disclaimer:
Important Notes:
The source of the historical data here is the NCDC GSOD (updated through 2015 as of 21 January 2016).
The records are defined here using GMT, with the day resetting at 00GMT (7PM EST;8PM EDT).
These records are NOT official and differ from official records that use a longer database and local (not GMT) time.
Only cities having an NCDC GSOD recorded history of at least 35 years are shown here.
With the additional year of data available (2015), 61 new stations (for a total of 3003) now meet the 35 year minimum record.
Note that given the relatively short record used here (as small as 35 years), records will almost assuredly be set somewhere every day for the next several decades to centuries.
Appreciation to R. Maue, among several others, for feedback.
Quoting 129. daddyjames:



Here's what you are seeing.

Winds at surface all going east/northeast in the Caribbean right now.




lol I'm not see that at all

im looking at surface NOT Mid level
Quoting 129. daddyjames:



Here's what you are seeing.

Winds at surface all going east/northeast in the Caribbean right now.




and don't tell me what I'm seeing
I have eyes and
I'm NOT blind
Quoting 73. CaneFreeCR:

One question regarding the El Nino warming of the atmosphere -- does the ocean, which generally is cooler than the air above it, actually emit more heat ("heat being released from waters in the Eastern Pacific"), or does it just absorb less warmth from the air, thus leaving the air warmer. It's counter-intuitive for heat to leave a cooler region for a warmer one, but the reduced absorption of heat from the atmosphere would have much the same effect. Just a small nit-pick.


The epac during warm enso is warming mostly because of reduced upwelling. Heat always flows from high temperature to low temperature. Oceans can be warmer than the air above it depending on the time of day, year, and location. The oceans are releasing more heat.
first off its surface obs NOT mid level obs
Quoting 129. daddyjames:



Here's what you are seeing.

Winds at surface all going east/northeast in the Caribbean right now.




and based on this the mid level spin is N of where the developing low level spin is
Quoting 130. Climate175:

GFS shows the impressive wave that came off West Africa a few days ago staying weak, and then trying to get together in the Caribbean, still far out but might want to maybe eye the wave.
I've seen storms do that in the past.Felix is a good example of a wave that stayed weak and waited until the caribbean to get its act together.
Quoting 132. wunderkidcayman:



lol I'm not see that at all

im looking at surface NOT Mid level


I, beell, and kmander stated what was happening at the surface - absolutely nothing at the moment as far as any indication of a closed circulation.

Quoting 133. wunderkidcayman:



and don't tell me what I'm seeing
I'm NOT blind


maybe delusional? (just kidding) :D
hr is up and updated sfc obs are in and no changes except pressures seems to be fluctuating between 1013mb and 1010mbs over past few hrs likely to do with peak dmin

anyway lets wait and see what it does over night
140. beell
If you use a wishcaster's choice of model frames-top to bottom

12Z 850 vort @ 96 hrs from the ECMWF and GFS
12Z 200 mb heights winds @ 102 hrs...

You could make a case for something. Pay no attention to that blobby thing off the east coast
:)







Quoting 138. daddyjames:



I, beell, and kmander stated what was happening at the surface - absolutely nothing at the moment as far as any indication of a closed circulation.



maybe delusional? (just kidding) :D


from what I can see is that there is a developing spin its not closed yet but soon if this continues

and I'm not delusional :(
Quoting 140. beell:

If you use a wishcaster's choice of model frames-top to bottom

12Z 850 vort @ 96 hrs from the ECMWF and GFS
12Z 200 mb heights winds @ 102 hrs...

You could make a case for something. Pay no attention to that blobby thing off the east coast
:)










Do the x's in figure 2 indicate that "blobby thing" off the east coast is dead?
The twave that is crossing Honduras is leaving a lot of rain in here. It has been beneficial so far. We were in a drought last year and part of this one. I love the wind and rain its producing. It might become something to watch if it reach the BOC. Things in there spin quickly like Fernand in 2013.
Quoting 140. beell:

If you use a wishcaster's choice of model frames-top to bottom

12Z 850 vort @ 96 hrs from the ECMWF and GFS
12Z 200 mb heights winds @ 102 hrs...

You could make a case for something. Pay no attention to that blobby thing off the east coast
:)










hehe don't forget this one

Quoting 145. wunderkidcayman:



hehe don't forget this one


2nd run showing that, but still 16 days out, we will see how the model outputs transform over the coming week.
hmmm the Eastern North Pacific two is all ready out but the Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of Mexico seems too be a little late tonight has in past night and this AM they both came out at around 4:10 too 4:15 pm

Quoting 146. Climate175:

2nd run showing that, but still 16 days out, we will see how the model outputs transform over the coming week.


yes indeed
149. beell
Quoting 145. wunderkidcayman:



hehe don't forget this one




I'll remember at about 168 hehe hrs-give or take 24 or 48 hehe hrs.
:)
there it is

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located over Honduras, Nicaragua, and the adjacent
waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea is producing a broad area
of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorm activity. Associated
thunderstorm activity has changed little today and there is no
evidence of a surface circulation. Development, if any, of this
disturbance should be slow to occur due to interaction with land
while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph toward the
Bay of Campeche over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent


up too 20% for the next five days
Quoting 147. Tazmanian:

hmmm the Eastern North Pacific two is all ready out but the Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of Mexico seems too be a little late tonight has in past night and this AM they both came out at around 4:10 too 4:15 pm




its out what u mean

0%/20%
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located over Honduras, Nicaragua, and the adjacent
waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea is producing a broad area
of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorm activity. Associated
thunderstorm activity has changed little today and there is no
evidence of a surface circulation. Development, if any, of this
disturbance should be slow to occur due to interaction with land
while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph toward the
Bay of Campeche over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Quoting 140. beell:

If you use a wishcaster's choice of model frames-top to bottom

12Z 850 vort @ 96 hrs from the ECMWF and GFS
12Z 200 mb heights winds @ 102 hrs...

You could make a case for something. Pay no attention to that blobby thing off the east coast
:)










Seems to be NHC's strategy this year. *cough* Bonnie *cough* :)
Quoting 151. wunderkidcayman:



its out what u mean

0%/20%


nevere mind what i ment its out and that all it matters are two was a little late tonight has this AM both two came out around 11:15 or so this AM
155. beell
Quoting 142. daddyjames:



Do the x's in figure 2 indicate that "blobby thing" off the east coast is dead?


It's a models guess at vorticity center(s)
or this one-whichever you prefer tonight!
Edit: I don't mean to imply in anyway, shape or form that the blob will be a fish-for comedic effect only

Quoting 155. beell:



It's a models guess at vorticity center(s)
or this one-whichever you prefer tonight!




Heard of a fish storm, but a dead fish storm . . . .

BTW - you give your kids weird toys to play with . . .
NHC shifted X NW
Quoting 157. wunderkidcayman:

NHC shifted X NW


Still over land . . . just saying.
So, went from 0/20 to 0/10 for a bit, and back to 0/20, this still has a good chance, it's just that we won't know how it will react until over water.
Quoting 158. daddyjames:



Still over land . . . just saying.


still shifted NW...just saying
161. beell
Quoting 156. daddyjames:



Heard of a fish storm, but a dead fish storm . . . .

BTW - you give your kids weird toys to play with . . .


It's mine.
would be nic if we can get 94L out of this so we can get some model runs
Quoting 161. beell:



It's mine.


that's even weirder . . .
We are overwhelmed by month after month of record all time highs to the point the vast majority pay no attention at all to it. Ignorance is not bliss, it's a guaranteed recipe for disaster soon down the road. We are not taking any steps to honestly deal with this, we wax poetic, while the status quo still carries the day.
Quoting 160. wunderkidcayman:



still shifted NW...just saying


Still over land - still sayiing
Quoting 164. DeepSeaRising:

We are overwhelmed by month after month of record all time highs to the point the vast majority pay no attention at all to it. Ignorance is not bliss, it's a guaranteed recipe for disaster soon down the road. We are not taking any steps to honestly deal with this, we wax poetic, while the status quo still carries the day.


No it doesn't change is a-coming. Too late, I admit, but its a-coming.
Quoting 165. daddyjames:



Still over land - still sayiing


Closer to being offshore - still saying
Quoting 167. wunderkidcayman:



Closer to being offshore - still saying


Only if your counting the BOC - just saying.
I tried to explain years ago that you cannot blog a storm into existance.

First u needs a invest.
170. elioe
Now it seems that the vorticity, that was between Grand Cayman and Belize/Mexico border earlier, has moved to the southeast, or a new vortex has formed. The cloud mass is beginning to exhibit outflow towards the north, whereas earlier all of that convection seemed to originate from the vortex and spread only south.

(Looking at satellite images is addictive. Wonder if I sleep on this night at all. Less than an hour until sunrise.)
Quoting 82. elioe:


Point 1.) here beginning at comment 158, NASA/NOAA/FMI disagreement, that would need massive shifts between 1951-1980 and 1981-2010 base periods to be explainable.

There have been also other interagency disagreements, such as NSIDC/FMI disagreement about Baltic Sea ice cover last month.

Point 2.) See my other comments here.

Of course it is possible to get record warmth in a 5*5 degree grid cell, if huge majority of that area hasn't had even exceptional warmth. Only very unlikely.

But, as I said before, this time I've left a comment for the Finnish professionals. I'm waiting to get more information, if they reply. I'll get back to this matter in that case.


The first thing I'd look at is what, precisely, is being measured by whom. Are all observations at the same time of day, or is one of them a daily average? If so, how is that average figured?

IOW, the answer to your question is probably that NASA/NOAA are measuring temperature differently than FMI and slightly differently from each other, hence a different answer is calculated.
Quoting 168. daddyjames:



Only if your counting the BOC - just saying.


nope Gulf of Honduras - just sayin
Quoting 172. wunderkidcayman:



nope Gulf of Honduras - just sayin


000
AXNT20 KNHC 162348
TWDAT

TWDAT (Abridged version)

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
747 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has been repositioned in the western Caribbean after
analyzing scatterometer data, surface observations and satellite
imagery. The new axis extends from 18N84W to 11N85W, moving at
10-15 kt over the past 24 hours. A well defined trough at 700 mb
is depicted by global models, and abundant moisture accompanies
this wave. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
observed along this wave from 11N-19N between 81W-88W affecting
the SW Caribbean waters and portions of Nicaragua and Honduras.

...DISCUSSION...

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An active tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean and
Central America. Please refer to the section above for more
details. The proximity of this wave and a diffluent flow aloft are
supporting isolated convection over eastern Cuba and the Windward
Passage. To the east, an upper-level low centered over eastern
Hispaniola is generating isolated showers across western Puerto
Rico and the Mona Passage. Fair weather prevails across the
remainder of the basin. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to
fresh trades across the basin. Expect in 24 hours for the tropical
wave to continue moving west with convection
. Gale force winds
will develop north of Colombia tonight. Please see the Special
Feature section for details.

NHC "go west young wave, go west" - just saying.
174. beell
Quoting 174. beell:




Cool you even went to the trouble animating it!? You are one dedicated weatherman!
This just saying stuff is starting to get a bit hilarious.
Quoting 166. daddyjames:



No it doesn't change is a-coming. Too late, I admit, but its a-coming.


Then one day you find, ten years have got behind us, no one told us when to run, we've missed the starting gun. Change is not coming, the same elites still run EVERYTHING. They have all the power on every realm. We remove them or we are doomed to the fate we are racing towards.
Quoting 173. daddyjames:



000
AXNT20 KNHC 162348
TWDAT

TWDAT (Abridged version)

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
747 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has been repositioned in the western Caribbean after
analyzing scatterometer data, surface observations and satellite
imagery. The new axis extends from 18N84W to 11N85W, moving at
10-15 kt over the past 24 hours. A well defined trough at 700 mb
is depicted by global models, and abundant moisture accompanies
this wave. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
observed along this wave from 11N-19N between 81W-88W affecting
the SW Caribbean waters and portions of Nicaragua and Honduras.

...DISCUSSION...

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An active tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean and
Central America. Please refer to the section above for more
details. The proximity of this wave and a diffluent flow aloft are
supporting isolated convection over eastern Cuba and the Windward
Passage. To the east, an upper-level low centered over eastern
Hispaniola is generating isolated showers across western Puerto
Rico and the Mona Passage. Fair weather prevails across the
remainder of the basin. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to
fresh trades across the basin. Expect in 24 hours for the tropical
wave to continue moving west with convection
. Gale force winds
will develop north of Colombia tonight. Please see the Special
Feature section for details.

NHC "go west young wave, go west" - just saying.


lol TWO says WNW and TWD says W NHC Don't really know where this thing is going plus with wave being repositioned its not really known exactly where it will go could be W or WNW or NW or even N at this point - just saying
Quoting 176. Climate175:

This just saying stuff is starting to get a bit hilarious.


I know right - just sayin
lol

180. beell
Quoting 175. daddyjames:



Cool you even went to the trouble animating it!? You are one dedicated weatherman!


Less trouble than the discussion that prompted it!
:)
Quoting 178. wunderkidcayman:



lol TWO says WNW and TWD says W NHC Don't really know where this thing is going plus with wave being repositioned its not really known exactly where it will go could be W or WNW or NW or even N at this point - just saying


Is it my problem they don't coordinate with one another? - just saying.
Quoting 180. beell:



Less trouble than the discussion that prompted it!
:)


not really its just adding a few words to "- just saying"
Quoting 181. daddyjames:



Is it my problem they don't coordinate with one another? - just saying.


I agree that that and just that alone no coordination - just saying lol
i wounder when the NHC will add the area off the E coast that the model runs been hiting at then we would have a race
Quoting 185. Tazmanian:

i wounder when the NHC will add the area off the E coast that the model runs been hiting at then we would have a race


Never - just saying
Quoting 184. wunderkidcayman:



I agree that that and just that alone no coordination - just saying lol


LOL back atcha - just saying.
wkc - I have to run - its been fun, and we'll see what happens where soon enough - just saying ;)
A possible tornado recently hit Middleburg, VA in a supercell. My family members live there and reported blown out windows and downed trees. The hook echo was very clear. Safe wishes to everyone in the mid-Atlantic affected by severe weather.
Quoting 185. Tazmanian:

i wounder when the NHC will add the area off the E coast that the model runs been hiting at then we would have a race


yes well I think NHC thinks it may stay non tropical
Quoting 188. daddyjames:

wkc - I have to run - its been fun, and we'll see what happens where soon enough - just saying ;)


yeah same here - just saying ;)
192. beell


"The new axis extends from 18N84W to 11N85W"

Close enough for the girls I run with.
Quoting 177. DeepSeaRising:



Then one day you find, ten years have got behind us, no one told us when to run, we've missed the starting gun. Change is not coming, the same elites still run EVERYTHING. They have all the power on every realm. We remove them or we are doomed to the fate we are racing towards.
Where do you start with the removal process? Getting hot in Texas.
POSSIBLE FATHER'S DAY DISASTER?

Srainhoutex on KHOU.COM weather forum says:

Upper ridge builds to nearly 600DM over the southern plains this weekend, but also shifts slightly toward the NW allowing deep easterly flow to develop across SE TX. An upper air disturbance within this ENE to E flow will approach on Sunday and likely result in scattered showers and thunderstorms. May need to keep an eye on any potential W or WSW moving MCS that may form in the mid to late afternoon hours…such systems can produce severe winds as they move SW into a “super heated” air mass over the region. This is more typical in July or early August than June.


1. How good a chance for this?

2. Should Houston residents be vigilant for this?
Quoting 193. Kenfa03:

Where do you start with the removal process? Getting hot in Texas.


Well it starts with the truth being told of where all the world's money has gone in the last three decades. It starts with the truth of who runs all the West's politicians. It starts by telling the real agenda and what the end game goals are. We are sold one huge lie. Believed by those who have been programmed so well. It's all a game, and we, the average men and women, aren't playing with a full deck of information. Enough pawns and we can sack the queen of lies.
Water Hazard---environmental science journalist Andrew Revkin's first article, published in Discover Magazine, September 1988. About human-alligator interactions in Florida.




850mb vort expanding offshore 700 and 500mb deepening
Antarctic CO2 levels hit 400ppm for the first time in four million years. Frosty the Snowman was a very sad man indeed, with a corncob pipe and a button nose, soon to be extinct, like so many species we use to know. We are in an extinction period not seen in a very long time. This should matter more, because if not, it's going to get worse on a faster and faster scale. But we deemed it not. What will be, will be. We will reap this harvest and the price will be higher than any could imagine. Hope rings eternal, it's not to late to affect what's coming. But the world's real focus is far from that. A clanging bell of verbatim and "promises" are just that. We are far behind the scale of needed action. But I digress, there's a possible tropical depression forming; just saying.
199. beell
Quoting 182. wunderkidcayman:



not really its just adding a few words to "- just saying"


True that. It's what we all do here! Jus...
197. stormpetrol
8:32 PM EDT on June 16, 2016
Also notice the vorticity with the central Atlantic wave that pushed off of the coast of Africa a few days ago.It will have to be watched as it heads towards the caribbean and I think that is what the GFS spins up into a storm in the N.W caribbean.
Quoting 185. Tazmanian:

i wounder when the NHC will add the area off the E coast that the model runs been hiting at then we would have a race

They probably won't until about 12 hours prior to any tropical or subtropical formation.
Quoting 194. pureet1948:

POSSIBLE FATHER'S DAY DISASTER?

Srainhoutex on KHOU.COM weather forum says:

Upper ridge builds to nearly 600DM over the southern plains this weekend, but also shifts slightly toward the NW allowing deep easterly flow to develop across SE TX. An upper air disturbance within this ENE to E flow will approach on Sunday and likely result in scattered showers and thunderstorms. May need to keep an eye on any potential W or WSW moving MCS that may form in the mid to late afternoon hours…such systems can produce severe winds as they move SW into a “super heated” air mass over the region. This is more typical in July or early August than June.


1. How good a chance for this?

2. Should Houston residents be vigilant for this?



I think Houston should go about its business. Everyone should keep an eye to the sky for a thunderstorm.
BOC potential storm, and the tropical wave at 35W, that still has good rotation with it.
We could be looking at three more possibly named systems by mid July. Just in time to get to our K named storm by mid August possibly. Early season forecasts can now be torn up and thrown away. We are in uncharted waters, a hybrid season under way, with a bulls eye on our basin.
Quoting 201. NCHurricaneTracker69:


They probably won't until about 12 hours prior to any tropical or subtropical formation.

It may be one of those storms like Claudette last year in which the models strongly support a genesis but the NHC ignores it until it happens.
Quoting 202. Bucsboltsfan:



I think Houston should go about its business. Everyone should keep an eye to the sky for a thunderstorm.


Remember what Srainhoutex said, Bucsboltsfan. An MCS moving W-SW into a superheated airmass IS a recipe for serious trouble. All I wanted to know was how great the risk is. (The Houston NWS discos are of little help here, as they don't mention what Srainhoutex has mentioned.)
DeepSeaRising? Or DeadSeaDrying?
Quoting 177. DeepSeaRising:



Then one day you find, ten years have got behind us, no one told us when to run, we've missed the starting gun. Change is not coming, the same elites still run EVERYTHING. They have all the power on every realm. We remove them or we are doomed to the fate we are racing towards.


Pink Floyd fan are ya?
Quoting 206. HurricaneFan:


It may be one of those storms like Claudette last year in which the models strongly support a genesis but the NHC ignores it until it happens.
Well the models have the low coming off the Carolina coast by Saturday, so maybe we will get a mention by then. NHC didn't mention the beginnings of Claudette until it was off the coast, as you said.
Quoting 209. daddyjames:



Pink Floyd fan are ya?


Run rabbit run, dig a hole, ignore the Son; wait for it to happen, alas by then all will be done.
Quoting 207. pureet1948:



Remember what Srainhoutex said, Bucsboltsfan. An MCS moving W-SW into a superheated airmass IS a recipe for serious trouble. All I wanted to know was how great the risk is. (The Houston NWS discos are of little help here, as they don't mention what Srainhoutex has mentioned.)

If the NWS didn't mention it, your risk probably is not too high but keep an eye on the forecast as this is subject to change as the forecast becomes more clear over the next few days
So if we just do a hypothetical, say we get Danielle out of the BOC storm, and then maybe Earl from off the East Coast, and the potential for another storm before June is over, we will then have 6 storms in total already, before July starts.
Quoting 213. Climate175:

So if we just do a hypothetical, say we get Danielle out of the BOC storm, and then maybe Earl from off the East Coast, and the potential for another storm before June is over, we will then have 6 storms in total already, before July starts.



why the E PAC is still waiting too get the 1st named storm LOL am just loveing it
Okay, so I read all these comments about vorts and the 850 vorts, well, in the end, they're the only ones that count in the tropical storm counting game.

So what I don't get is how is that vort over Ohio going to get to the Bay of Campeche and become... trubba?
;?}
right now the gulf of MX is wide open has there is no shear what so ever in the gulf if any thing got in there look out

the gulf of MX is shear free right now

How is the wind shear. Are the storms still facing shear? I am under the impression that we have the heat, and enough wet air, we just need to have the shear drop before genisis can occur.

Is this anywhere near correct?

Cheers
Qazulight
Michael Ventrice %u200F@MJVentrice 8h8 hours ago
Calibrated ECMWF EPS gaining some steam for possible Bay of Campeche weak tropical cyclone spin up.

Showing a 50% chance on that model.
Quoting 215. Barefootontherocks:

Okay, so I read all these comments about vorts and the 850 vorts, well, in the end, they're the only ones that count in the tropical storm counting game.

So what I don't get is how is that vort over Ohio going to get to the Bay of Campeche and become... trubba?
;?}
The vort over Ohio is not going to go any where near the BOC.The BOC storm comes from the current tropical wave in the N.W caribbean and if it manages to get over water it could briefly spin up into a storm.The vort over Ohio comes off the coast and it has a brief window to become a sub tropical storm before getting scooted off to the east.
Quoting 208. BaltimoreBrian:

DeepSeaRising? Or DeadSeaDrying?


Not good... Kinda weird as well.
Quoting 213. Climate175:

So if we just do a hypothetical, say we get Danielle out of the BOC storm, and then maybe Earl from off the East Coast, and the potential for another storm before June is over, we will then have 6 storms in total already, before July starts.


I was thinking about that today

just saying if we get the BOC storm plus the E Coast storm and next NW Carib/GOM storm plus the possible CV system by the 2nd week in July (as models suggest) and we get to the G storm wouldn't that be a record

looking back to active season over past 15 or so years
out of the 8 active season most of them has g name storm either Aug or Sept with only one season with G storm in July (2005)
Quoting 219. BaltimoreBrian:

How to Become a Shadow Angel in the Morning Dew Click photograph to expand.






Get up early and stand still for a long time . . .
Quoting 221. Dakster:

Not good... Kinda weird as well.
Speaking of wierd...

Kermit Sutra: New Mating Position Reported for Frogs
Quoting 211. DeepSeaRising:



Run rabbit run, dig a hole, ignore the Son; wait for it to happen, alas by then all will be done.


I prefer this to sum up what will happen

And did they get you to trade
Your heroes for ghosts?
Hot ashes for trees?
Hot air for a cool breeze?
Cold comfort for change?
Quoting 203. Climate175:

BOC potential storm, and the tropical wave at 35W, that still has good rotation with it.


Greetings and Blessings!

Indeed, I do think that the Mid Atlantic tropical wave does bear watching especially down the road should its convection begin to fire some more, and further organization occurs with its LLC. Nonetheless, quite an interesting tropical wave for this time of year, and a unique pronounced spin for its current latitude. Let's hope that its not a portend of the Cape Verde season to come later this year.

God Bless Us All!
Quoting 213. Climate175:

So if we just do a hypothetical, say we get Danielle out of the BOC storm, and then maybe Earl from off the East Coast, and the potential for another storm before June is over, we will then have 6 storms in total already, before July starts.


A lot of ifs.
Quoting 224. BaltimoreBrian:

Speaking of wierd...

Kermit Sutra: New Mating Position Reported for Frogs


I only found this part creepy and weird:

"Researchers spent 40 nights in a dense forest, finding male Bombay night frogs by listening for their mating calls and filming the action when a female showed up."
Quoting 192. beell:



"The new axis extends from 18N84W to 11N85W"

Close enough for the girls I run with.


Quoting 176. Climate175:

This just saying stuff is starting to get a bit hilarious.


Quoting 156. daddyjames:



Heard of a fish storm, but a dead fish storm . . . .

BTW - you give your kids weird toys to play with . . .


Quoting 161. beell:



It's mine.


Not everyday do I regret reading posts from earlier that I missed...but on some days I do...^what even is this. KEEP, I think we need another interlude.

Meanwhile the voice of steady reason comes from the ever reliable Pat

Quoting 169. Patrap:

I tried to explain years ago that you cannot blog a storm into existance.

First u needs a invest.
Evening all. I was just looking at a picture of a tornado that formed out near the airport yesterday. The Nassau Guardian has it on the front page. Sorry I can't post it on here, but you can view the front page here.
Wow, Baha. Good photo there.
Hope the tornado didn't tear up too much or hurt anyone.
Heat advisory was kicked in today, dew point of 68 with a temperature of 91 at the house, 96-97 at the airport (BNA).

Quoting 213. Climate175:

So if we just do a hypothetical, say we get Danielle out of the BOC storm, and then maybe Earl from off the East Coast, and the potential for another storm before June is over, we will then have 6 storms in total already, before July starts.


Hypotheticals aside, don't count your chickens before they hatch.

Side note: Don't assume your swans are male/female just because they build a nest and eggs are spotted laying in the nest. Learned that the hard way this last semester at school. I am still upset that those were duck eggs the swans stole. >.<
dj,
Hot air for a cool breeze?
Yes. Was easy. Had a lovely evening. after I put a couple bloggers on ignore... j/k j/k.
You have to admit, dj, for such a warm day in OK, this evening was a beaut. Out here anyway. Had to go mow and watch the sunset. Till the chiggers started crawling up my leg, that is.
Quoting 232. Astrometeor:

Heat advisory was kicked in today, dew point of 68 with a temperature of 91 at the house, 96-97 at the airport (BNA).



Hypotheticals aside, don't count your chickens before they hatch.

Side note: Don't assume your swans are male/female just because they build a nest and eggs are spotted laying in the nest. Learned that the hard way this last semester at school. I am still upset that those were duck eggs the swans stole. >.<


And you were complaining about the scintillating conversation before? - just saying ;)
Quoting 230. BahaHurican:

Evening all. I was just looking at a picture of a tornado that formed out near the airport yesterday. The Nassau Guardian has it on the front page. Sorry I can't post it on here, but you can view the front page here.


Wow baha, and I thought only US politics was roiling - looks as if you all are having fun there as well . . .
Quoting 220. washingtonian115:

The vort over Ohio is not going to go any where near the BOC.The BOC storm comes from the current tropical wave in the N.W caribbean and if it manages to get over water it could briefly spin up into a storm.The vort over Ohio comes off the coast and it has a brief window to become a sub tropical storm before getting scooted off to the east.
Thanks. My (unintended cap fixed) comment was kind of tongue-in-cheek. I did figure that out eventually - about the two different vorts. Oftimes I am easily confused.
;)
Quoting 208. BaltimoreBrian:

DeepSeaRising? Or DeadSeaDrying?


I had the privilege of serving with the United Nations (UNEF II) and on a weekend off, left Egypt to see Masada and had the chance to experience the Dead Sea mud baths and actually tried out the "newspaper move".... Never would I have believed it until I actually did it! Believe me, when they tell you not to get that water in your eyes, they mean it.

Lindy
Quoting 233. Barefootontherocks:

dj,
Hot air for a cool breeze?
Yes. Was easy. Had a lovely evening. after I put a couple bloggers on ignore... j/k j/k.
You have to admit, dj, for such a warm day in OK, this evening was a beaut. Out here anyway. Had to go mow and watch the sunset. Till the chiggers started crawling up my leg, that is.


it is a bit better this evening, and the heat/humidity yesterday felt worse. Chiggers! I hate chiggers. Once when I was doing field work, I got them real bad in my left leg - seems as if I did not take enough precautions that day. :(
Quoting 230. BahaHurican:

Evening all. I was just looking at a picture of a tornado that formed out near the airport yesterday. The Nassau Guardian has it on the front page. Sorry I can't post it on here, but you can view the front page here.


Baha, do you think your power company and ours are in cahoots with each other....that article read like our island!!
Quoting 220. washingtonian115:

The vort over Ohio is not going to go any where near the BOC.The BOC storm comes from the current tropical wave in the N.W caribbean and if it manages to get over water it could briefly spin up into a storm.The vort over Ohio comes off the coast and it has a brief window to become a sub tropical storm before getting scooted off to the east.
Personally I'm watching the Twave at 35W... that's looking remarkably good for this time of year....
Quoting 237. LindyVirginIslander:



I had the privilege of serving with the United Nations (UNEF II) and on a weekend off, left Egypt to see Masada and had the chance to experience the Dead Sea mud baths and actually tried out the "newspaper move".... Never would I have believed it until I actually did it! Believe me, when they tell you not to get that water in your eyes, they mean it.

Lindy


Was the "newspaper move" in reference to the Kermit Sutra post? Just wondering if I have to amp up my game . . . .
242. vis0
As to a Q from Patrap. posted on last blogbyte of Dr. Masters/Mr. Henson


is it hot in here or is it just irresponsibility?
Quoting 194. pureet1948:

POSSIBLE FATHER'S DAY DISASTER?

Srainhoutex on KHOU.COM weather forum says:

Upper ridge builds to nearly 600DM over the southern plains this weekend, but also shifts slightly toward the NW allowing deep easterly flow to develop across SE TX. An upper air disturbance within this ENE to E flow will approach on Sunday and likely result in scattered showers and thunderstorms. May need to keep an eye on any potential W or WSW moving MCS that may form in the mid to late afternoon hours…such systems can produce severe winds as they move SW into a “super heated” air mass over the region. This is more typical in July or early August than June.


1. How good a chance for this?

2. Should Houston residents be vigilant for this?



Jeez dude stop worrying so much. You yell doom anytime there's a chance for a drizzle near you. There will be no "disaster". Maybe you should live on a desert island in the middle of the ocean near a cold water current so there's absolutely no chance of you encountering weather of any sort.

This will be no "disaster". You obviously don't know what a disaster looks like or feels like to go through. A disaster is when you have 11 feet of ocean water in your home, cars floating into utility poles and causing transformers to explode and subsequently not having drinking water or electricity for over a month and a half.

You're going to give yourself a heart attack with all that stress anytime a storm pops up on the radar.
Quoting 238. daddyjames:



it is a bit better this evening, and the heat/humidity yesterday felt worse. Chiggers! I hate chiggers. Once when I was doing field work, I got them real bad in my left leg - seems as if I did not take enough precautions that day. :(
Yes. Heat index here yesterday was over 107. Today, great breeze. I guess we all have to learn our chigger lessons. :) Some bite; some don't. Sometimes hard to figger a chigger.

Good night, All.
Quoting 231. Barefootontherocks:

Wow, Baha. Good photo there.
Hope the tornado didn't tear up too much or hurt anyone.
Seems to have stayed over the water.... I guess a landlocked waterspout is what it was.... pretty impressive for here.....
Lindy I visited the Dead Sea in the summer of 2000 and read the newspaper floating in the sea. I also wore goggles :)
Quoting 241. daddyjames:



Was the "newspaper move" in reference to the Kermit Sutra post? Just wondering if I have to amp up my game . . . .


Sorry. It was in reference to wading into the Dead Sea, sitting down as if there was a chair and reading a newspaper....you have to do it once in your life.
Quoting 235. daddyjames:



Wow baha, and I thought only US politics was roiling - looks as if you all are having fun there as well . . .
Politics is always a fun game.... we discuss it here at least as much as you guys do....
Quoting 247. LindyVirginIslander:



Sorry. It was in reference to wading into the Dead Sea, sitting down as if there was a chair and reading a newspaper....you have to do it once in your life.


Putting it on the bucket list as we speak!
Quoting 239. LindyVirginIslander:



Baha, do you think your power company and ours are in cahoots with each other....that article read like our island!!
Same ppl, different island....

:-)

Quoting 240. BahaHurican:

Personally I'm watching the Twave at 35W... that's looking remarkably good for this time of year....
GFS has it as one of those sneaky waves that develope once they get into the Caribbean.It has somewhat organized vorticity with it and conditions will soon be favorable in the Caribbean.Something to watch for in the coming week.
252. Ed22
Quoting 226. NatureIsle:



Greetings and Blessings!

Indeed, I do think that the Mid Atlantic tropical wave does bear watching especially down the road should its convection begin to fire some more, and further organization occurs with its LLC. Nonetheless, quite an interesting tropical wave for this time of year, and a unique pronounced spin for its current latitude. Let's hope that its not a portend of the Cape Verde season to come later this year.

God Bless Us All!
Yes things are shaping up for next weeks to be a busy week of tropical Activities, nevertheless the Tropical wave over the Central Tropical Atlantic (C.T.A) is be monitored closely it's going into more favourable conditions in the next 48 to 96 hours from now, the next that active tropical disturbance south west of Jamaica and on the northern coast of Honduras bairs watching as move slowly west-northwest ward and last a frontal Low pressure system could be off the southeast coast by tomorrow afternoon to be monitored for tropical storm development... Next Weeks ahead will be robust with tropical activities while the Eastern Pacific remains quiet...
Quoting 246. BaltimoreBrian:

Lindy I visited the Dead Sea in the summer of 2000 and did read the newspaper floating in the sea. I also wore goggles :)


Ohhhhh, I'm going to date myself here and tell you that I was there in 1979. Was there when the Peace Accord was signed between Egypt and Israel. Was a very incredible time to be there. Don't think goggles existed then... ;-)
AOI in nw carb land interacting now have too wait till the boc side
interesting perturbation coming in from within ITCZ
over tropical south north atlantic towards lower windwards and trinny

Quoting 243. tc1120:



Jeez dude stop worrying so much. You yell doom anytime there's a chance for a drizzle near you. There will be no "disaster". Maybe you should live on a desert island in the middle of the ocean near a cold water current so there's absolutely no chance of you encountering weather of any sort.

This will be no "disaster". You obviously don't know what a disaster looks like or feels like to go through. A disaster is when you have 11 feet of ocean water in your home, cars floating into utility poles and causing transformers to explode and subsequently not having drinking water or electricity for over a month and a half.

You're going to give yourself a heart attack with all that stress anytime a storm pops up on the radar.


I've echoed the same things. But, I too was wrong. Houston's been through a hell of a ride the last two years. Many suffering from the emotional side affects of.
Houston's been through multiple flooding disasters the last two years. Many lives lost.
Quoting 243. tc1120:



Jeez dude stop worrying so much. You yell doom anytime there's a chance for a drizzle near you. There will be no "disaster". Maybe you should live on a desert island in the middle of the ocean near a cold water current so there's absolutely no chance of you encountering weather of any sort.

This will be no "disaster". You obviously don't know what a disaster looks like or feels like to go through. A disaster is when you have 11 feet of ocean water in your home, cars floating into utility poles and causing transformers to explode and subsequently not having drinking water or electricity for over a month and a half.

You're going to give yourself a heart attack with all that stress anytime a storm pops up on the radar.


It's almost like he has PTSD or something. If he does, words aren't gonna get through to him. Basic rule of dealing with people like that.
Quoting 259. KoritheMan:



It's almost like he has PTSD or something. If he does, words aren't gonna get through to him. Basic rule of dealing with people like that.


That's exactly what I'm giving him credit for. And if so, then he needs to address that. Some other place than here. His singular focus on that and nothing else is not okay. Fine to address that, but when it's that and never anything else, then it starts to border on tedious and monomania.
Quoting 260. DeepSeaRising:



That's exactly what I'm giving him credit for. And if so, then he needs to address that. Some other place than here. His singular focus on that and nothing else is not okay. Fine to address that, but when it's that and never anything else, then it starts to border on tedious and monomania.


Sometimes monomania is all you know. I deal with depression on a nearly constant basis. It cycles and some episodes are worse than others; sometimes, that is all I think about. Distractions help, but they are not a panacea. Psychology isn't as simple as that.
There's another article over on Ars Technica about IBM and The Weather Company:

Meet Deep Thunder: IBM’s next step in the automation of forecasting
Company's new mesoscale weather model combines forecasting and machine learning.

It talks about how they are combining IBM's and TWC's versions of the the NOAA WRF or Weather Research and Forecasting Model for improved mesoscale forecasting. They will include machine learning (Watson) to look at past weather events for businesses and better predict how future variations in temperature, precipitation, wind, and other conditions will affect everything from consumer buying patterns to business supply chains. They also expect to be selling more detailed local area forecasts to entities like airlines to help them operate more efficiently. It will be interesting to see where it all goes.
True that Kori. Just hope he opens up and talks about something other than that one talking point; I could respect that.
PTSD is from many experiences. War, abuse, extreme events of many sorts. We should absolutely support those here who suffer such.
Boy oh boy I can't wait too what this blog will look like when we have 2 or 3 named storm at once out there and they are all mod to strong hurricanes I think this blog would self destruct if that where too ever happened
Quoting 266. Tazmanian:

Boy oh boy I can't wait too what this blog will look like when we have 2 or 3 named storm at once out there and they are all mod to strong hurricanes I think this blog would self destruct if that where too ever happened


Indeed, we're going to get the chance to find out this year. Captain Trough and Brother Shear may be out to lunch. Kori's been patiently waiting a long time to chase his Moby. That patience pays off this year.
86f
Quoting 267. DeepSeaRising:



Indeed, we're going to get the chance to find out this year. Captain Trough and Brother Shear may be out to lunch. Kori's been patiently waiting a long time to chase his Moby. That patience pays off this year.


I'm still waiting for everyone here to act like it's the end of the world when we have a digging shortwave in August.

It's the intense upper cyclones supporting southward-moving cold air that are rare in the summer; individual shortwaves are actually pretty common.
Quoting 264. DeepSeaRising:

PTSD is from many experiences. War, abuse, extreme events of many sorts. We should absolutely support those here who suffer such.


Agreed PTSD is really bad
Quoting 237. LindyVirginIslander:



I had the privilege of serving with the United Nations (UNEF II) and on a weekend off, left Egypt to see Masada and had the chance to experience the Dead Sea mud baths and actually tried out the "newspaper move".... Never would I have believed it until I actually did it! Believe me, when they tell you not to get that water in your eyes, they mean it.

Lindy


Also don't stumble and skin your knee on a salt outcrop.
Quoting 253. LindyVirginIslander:



Ohhhhh, I'm going to date myself here and tell you that I was there in 1979. Was there when the Peace Accord was signed between Egypt and Israel. Was a very incredible time to be there. Don't think goggles existed then... ;-)

If you ran into a USY pilgrimage group that summer, I was the short one with the long black braids. :) Remember this radio intro? "...From somewhere in the Mediterranian..."
Good chance for tropical cyclone formation over the Bay of Campeche if that wave actually emerges over water for more than a brief time.
276. vis0





Quoting 224. BaltimoreBrian:

Speaking of wierd...

Kermit Sutra: New Mating Position Reported for Frogs
Quoting 228. Dakster:



I only found this part creepy and weird:

"Researchers spent 40 nights in a dense forest, finding male Bombay night frogs by listening for their mating calls and filming the action when a female showed up."
will the HH spend 40* nights recording active TS this year
(time for me to take a nap)
*could be going into 15 TS almost 3 times per storm...
I bet Miss Piggy was mad when she found out Kermit had a "video" out...

HOT HOT HOT. Hit 87F at the house today. Trying to find out if we broke a heat record for today or not.

278. Ed22
Quoting 251. washingtonian115:

GFS has it as one of those sneaky waves that develope once they get into the Caribbean.It has somewhat organized vorticity with it and conditions will soon be favorable in the Caribbean.Something to watch for in the coming week.
Your on point with this sneaking tropical wave as it nears 40 west and gaining some altitude as it started moving west- northwest now. Getting better organised with LLC being more robust now, however the next tropical wave just about to leave Africa's coast now have spin to it as well " worth watching" too.
Quoting 278. Ed22:

Your on point with this sneaking tropical wave as it nears 40 west and gaining some altitude as it started moving west- northwest now. Getting better organised with LLC being more robust now, however the next tropical wave just about to leave Africa's coast now have spin to it as well " worth watching" too.


Best advice is to always keep an eye on those Cape Verde "seedlings" as they come across the Atlantic, they sometimes have 9 lifes like a cat.
Good morning abroad.



Flood threat draws nearer as water levels rise
The Local (Switzerland), Published: 17 Jun 2016 10:00 GMT+02:00
Switzerland is bracing for flooding after heavy overnight rain further swelled rivers and lakes.
The Federal Office for the Environment said there was a considerable risk of the River Rhine and Lake Constance bursting their banks. ....


One dead and two injured in northern Italy storms

The Local (Italy), Published: 16 Jun 2016 10:31 GMT+02:00

Arsonists suspected of causing Sicily wildfires
The Local (Italy), Published: 17 Jun 2016 09:19 GMT+02:00
Arsonists are suspected of causing wildfires that spread through parts of Sicily on Wednesday night and Thursday. ...

Wildfire forces evacuation of hospital in eastern Spain
The Local (Spain), Published: 17 Jun 2016 10:24 GMT+02:00

Middle East worst hit by rise in sand and dust storms
By Navin Singh Khadka Environment reporter, BBC World Service, 2 hours ago
The Middle East has been the worst hit by significant rise in sand and dust storms, with major impacts on human health, United Nations scientists say.
Iran and Kuwait are the most affected countries, largely because of sand and dust blowing in from Syria and Iraq.
Mismanagement of land and water amid conflicts in the region has been a key factor, as well as climate change.
Meteorologists say sand and dust storms are also happening in new places like some parts of Central Asia.
"In the Middle East there has been a significant increase in the frequency and the intensity of sand and dust storms in the past 15 years or so," said Enric Terradellas a meteorologist with the World Meteorology Organisation's sand and dust storm prediction centre for the region. ...


----------------------------


Current pressure in Europe (updating). As I write this, pressure of low "Karin", now over Poland, has dropped to 994mb.

Let's see what the day brings. Best wishes especially to Eastern Europe under the threat of very severe storms today!
Quoting 272. nonblanche:


If you ran into a USY pilgrimage group that summer, I was the short one with the long black braids. :) Remember this radio intro? "...From somewhere in the Mediterranian..."


Yes, I remember the intro very well. As a matter of fact, somewhere in amongst some stuff I have stored is a t-shirt from the station. I think we all listened to it.
Good morning, Barb

It seems it's one disaster after another in Europe these days!

Good morning guys anyone got satellite on the disturbed weather near the Yucatan ?
Quoting 282. LindyVirginIslander:

Good morning, Barb

It seems it's one disaster after another in Europe these days!




Yep its a cycle
285. MahFL
Quoting 283. James1981cane:

Good morning guys anyone got satellite on the disturbed weather near the Yucatan ?



You need to bookmark this page :

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html
A tropical depression could be forming with 93E. Might finally have the long-anticipated first storm of the season in the east Pacific today:

Nice cyclonic shape developing (high 800mb vorticity values as well), and there are very active thunderstorm cells over Poland at the moment. It's all moving very fast : in Estofex's words, "impressive wrap-around occlusion advects a very moist/unstable air mass to the depression's center and therefore beneath the left exit region of an astonishing (for June) 60 m/s upper-level jet."

Edit - New mesoscale discussion (MD) at Estofex's website :
Valid: Fri 17 Jun 2016 10:00 to Fri 17 Jun 2016 13:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 17 Jun 2016 10:49
Storms have initiated along and just ahead of the cold front in central and north Poland and are intensifying while rapidly moving northeastward. (...) The storm along the cold front are organizing linearly into a squall line that should move northeastward with an attendant severe wind threat. (...)
288. MahFL
Seems the models are still split on the OBX storm, and they generally don't have a good handle on it, at one point indicating 3 lows ?
funkmaster keyboardist bernie worrell founder member of the great american band "parliament funkadelic" is about to die. heaven will get alot more funky
290. MahFL
Quoting 286. KoritheMan:

A tropical depression could be forming with 93E. Might finally have the long-anticipated first storm of the season in the east Pacific today:


Or maybe not.. Did you read this part ?

"However, by Friday
night and over the weekend, environmental conditions will become
unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation."
Quoting 290. MahFL:



Or maybe not.. Did you read this part ?

"However, by Friday
night and over the weekend, environmental conditions will become
unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation."


Yes. That has nothing to do with it forming before that happens.
Quoting 289. islander101010:

funkmaster keyboardist bernie worrell founder member of the great american band "parliament funkadelic" is about to die. heaven will get alot more funky

There should be some tributes and honoring of him this weekend at The Purple Hatters Ball. Which the weather is looking a little less wet for..

I'm still putting it on the Atlantic storm will be the swirl to watch. GEOS-5 is has it stronger even, showing five closed isobars at it's worse, looking more warm core each run, maybe a weak hurricane even.

Tomorrow..


Here is about as south as it gets before heading north again, brushing the North Carolina coast on it's way out to sea.
;-) Too quiet in the tropics, cyclone-wise ? Don't worry, Central Europe's got a beautiful one at the moment :
Good Morning All.  The Conus forecast chart for today.  That string of lows across the mid-section of the US are probably another sign of the end of the El Nino with the higher trajectories as opposed to the typical El Nino lower trajectory SW, Texas and Gulf lows:




  
295. MahFL
Quoting 291. KoritheMan:



Yes. That has nothing to do with it forming before that happens.


It's only at 60%, they don't often go from 60% to TD in 12 hours...
Quoting 289. islander101010:

funkmaster keyboardist bernie worrell founder member of the great american band "parliament funkadelic" is about to die. heaven will get alot more funky


George Clinton (founder member) lives here in Tallahassee and we have a mutual friend and have met Mr. Clinton a few times; and a replica of the Mother Ship was towed from George's warehouse here to the Smithsonian Museum a few years ago for their African-American History Exhibit Hall. I hope that Mr. Clinton reaches out to him.
Quoting 295. MahFL:



It's only at 60%, they don't often go from 60% to TD in 12 hours...

I think it was in 2013 Hana formed when there was only a 20% chance of development up until it formed so it's possible
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI JUN 17 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased overnight in
association with a broad area of low pressure centered about 230
miles south-southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California
Peninsula. Although environmental conditions are only marginally
conducive for additional development, a tropical depression could
still form today while the low moves toward the west-northwest at
around 10 mph. By tonight environmental conditions are expected to
become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation as the low moves
over cooler waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent
Quoting 295. MahFL:



It's only at 60%, they don't often go from 60% to TD in 12 hours...


That's only a guide. Look at what's actually happening.
300. elioe
Good afternoon from rainy Finland. Today only light rain is expected, but some heavy instantaneous rates were observed yesterday, and those are possible again tomorrow. Some places have seen more than 30 mm in two days, still 40 mm possible until Tuesday. Following pic was taken in Vaarala (part of the metropolitan area of Helsinki) yesterday:



And I see, that NHC still puts the yellow X very close to coast, whereas spin appears to extend northwest from just offshore NE Honduras. Yesterday, I didn't see any spin anywhere near to coast, where the "X" was. Only somewhere between Caymans and Yucatan. I don't understand that at all.
Quoting 215. Barefootontherocks:

Okay, so I read all these comments about vorts and the 850 vorts, well, in the end, they're the only ones that count in the tropical storm counting game.

So what I don't get is how is that vort over Ohio going to get to the Bay of Campeche and become... trubba?
;?}


I wish that vort over Ohio would produce some rain...my grass is DEAD
Quoting 286. KoritheMan:

A tropical depression could be forming with 93E. Might finally have the long-anticipated first storm of the season in the east Pacific today:




Looking at this system I have my doubts but I could see this just make it to TD at best

Looks like E PAC just gonna have to wait a bit longer
Bad storm on the nature coast,heavy rain,wind and tons of Lightning.................
Quoting 300. elioe:

Good afternoon from rainy Finland. Today only light rain is expected, but some heavy instantaneous rates were observed yesterday, and those are possible again tomorrow. Some places have seen more than 30 mm in two days, still 40 mm possible until Tuesday. Following pic was taken in Vaarala (part of the metropolitan area of Helsinki) yesterday:



And I see, that NHC still puts the yellow X very close to coast, whereas spin appears to extend northwest from just offshore NE Honduras. Yesterday, I didn't see any spin anywhere near to coast, where the "X" was. Only somewhere between Caymans and Yucatan. I don't understand that at all.

You are looking at upper levels, surface winds are usually very hard to determine by looking at clouds until the storm is organized
305. elioe
Quoting 304. all4hurricanes:


You are looking at upper levels, surface winds are usually very hard to determine by looking at clouds until the storm is organized


At times, the spin might have been in mid-level, since those clouds were visible on IR. But at times it was clearly near surface since nothing was seen on IR. And the swirl had a radius of perhaps only 30 miles, so surface observations from land showed nothing. Not sure if there are any buoys though.
306. MahFL
Quoting 300. elioe:

Yesterday, I didn't see any spin anywhere near to coast, where the "X" was. Only somewhere between Caymans and Yucatan. I don't understand that at all.


Yellow X's do not mark definite spins, often the developing area will have competing spins. When the system devops a dominant low level circulation the NHC will say so, then when the low level center develops enough convection a Tropical Depression will be declared. That's how it works.
307. MahFL
Quoting 297. MrTornadochase:


I think it was in 2013 Hana formed when there was only a 20% chance of development up until it formed so it's possible


I did not say it was impossible.
First videos coming in from Karin's violent squall line over Poland, f.e. in this newspaper article.
More on youtube:


Short glimpse from Warsaw.



Watch it from 0:20. Nowe Miasto Lubawskie.


Current lightning (saved).
Quoting 307. MahFL:



I did not say it was impossible.

I know I was just trying to say that even if it's only a low chance don't ignore it not to you personally just in general
310. elioe
While we are waiting for something concrete to form, may I present you with this daily supply of doom:

isnt there one of those every week in the models during hurricane season?
Quoting 310. elioe:

While we are waiting for something concrete to form, may I present you with this daily supply of doom:


Good morning all! Was anyone else surprised that the Climate Prediction Center believes there is a 75% chance of La Nina conditions by fall? This must have came out before they had a chance to review Scott's latest findings. Or perhaps it's a typographical error.
area of disturbed weather is located near 8N 38W . It appears to be a pertabation within the ITCZ .although there is nothing at the surface ,the spin which is visible on satelite pictures is at the mid levels. Shear in the area is at a moderate level which is just conducive for development. with all that said the area is cimatological not conducive for development but this tropical wave is really quite interesting.

Only 2 more days till the Fish Fry, 83F yesterday, 93 forecast today here.
Smells like summer

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
315 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

SCZ049-050-171500-
/O.EXB.KCHS.HT.Y.0002.160617T1600Z-160617T2200Z/
COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EDISTO BEACH...CHARLESTON
315 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A HEAT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM AROUND
CHARLESTON TO GARDENS CORNER TO GRAYS IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND SPRINGFIELD TO STATESBORO TO METTER IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. THIS INCLUDES BEAUFORT...HILTON HEAD
ISLAND...HARDEEVILLE...SAVANNAH...HINESVILLE...CLA XTON AND
LUDOWICI.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...105 TO 110 DEGREES.

* IMPACTS...HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY COULD LEAD TO HEAT
ILLNESSES IF PROPER PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
The current temp forecast for Conus for 5:00 pm this afternoon: the Wife is on the way to Atlanta this morning; I suggested light clothing.........................


Kluane National Park (Yukon, Canada) a large river has changed from flowing into Arctic Ocean to flowing into the Pacific, because the Glacier feeding the river has retreated over the divide ..... since last year !

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/slims-river-d ries-yukon-kluane-glacier-1.3639472
Quoting 280. barbamz:

Good morning abroad.



Flood threat draws nearer as water levels rise
The Local (Switzerland), Published: 17 Jun 2016 10:00 GMT+02:00
Switzerland is bracing for flooding after heavy overnight rain further swelled rivers and lakes.
The Federal Office for the Environment said there was a considerable risk of the River Rhine and Lake Constance bursting their banks. ....


One dead and two injured in northern Italy storms

The Local (Italy), Published: 16 Jun 2016 10:31 GMT+02:00

Arsonists suspected of causing Sicily wildfires
The Local (Italy), Published: 17 Jun 2016 09:19 GMT+02:00
Arsonists are suspected of causing wildfires that spread through parts of Sicily on Wednesday night and Thursday. ...

Wildfire forces evacuation of hospital in eastern Spain
The Local (Spain), Published: 17 Jun 2016 10:24 GMT+02:00

Middle East worst hit by rise in sand and dust storms
By Navin Singh Khadka Environment reporter, BBC World Service, 2 hours ago
The Middle East has been the worst hit by significant rise in sand and dust storms, with major impacts on human health, United Nations scientists say.
Iran and Kuwait are the most affected countries, largely because of sand and dust blowing in from Syria and Iraq.
Mismanagement of land and water amid conflicts in the region has been a key factor, as well as climate change.
Meteorologists say sand and dust storms are also happening in new places like some parts of Central Asia.
"In the Middle East there has been a significant increase in the frequency and the intensity of sand and dust storms in the past 15 years or so," said Enric Terradellas a meteorologist with the World Meteorology Organisation's sand and dust storm prediction centre for the region. ...


----------------------------


Current pressure in Europe (updating). As I write this, pressure of low "Karin", now over Poland, has dropped to 994mb.

Let's see what the day brings. Best wishes especially to Eastern Europe under the threat of very severe storms today!


I remember reading Ticino is the rainiest/stormiest canton in Switzerland, living up to it. Also where a landslide caused by flooding rains occurred a year or so ago and killed several.
that link to the CBC website has picked up an extra 'space' in the middle of 'dries' ...... dunno how to paste a 'link' ..... maybe somebody could help me out with that, thanks.
320. elioe
Quoting 311. 19N81W:

isnt there one of those every week in the models during hurricane season?



I'd put it rather, that there are several of those every day :)
Quoting 312. Llamaluvr:

Good morning all! Was anyone else surprised that the Climate Prediction Center believes there is a 75% chance of La Nina conditions by fall? This must have came out before they had a chance to review Scott's latest findings. Or perhaps it's a typographical error.

No, i think it was just you. This current warming is only temporary
.
Quoting 321. tiggerhurricanes2001:


No, i think it was just you. This current warming is only temporary
.
He's trying too hard to troll.
End of the month




Just a friendly reminder....
Quoting 324. Grothar:

End of the month






Stop it.
Interesting radar also.



Link

Quoting 303. LargoFl:

Bad storm on the nature coast,heavy rain,wind and tons of Lightning.................
Quoting 319. GreatSlaveLake:

that link to the CBC website has picked up an extra 'space' in the middle of 'dries' ...... dunno how to paste a 'link' ..... maybe somebody could help me out with that, thanks.

That always happens on WU. I just paste it into the address bar and then remove the extra space(s). I'm not good with links either.
Quoting 319. GreatSlaveLake:

that link to the CBC website has picked up an extra 'space' in the middle of 'dries' ...... dunno how to paste a 'link' ..... maybe somebody could help me out with that, thanks.


Copy the URL. Go to your comment box and look for the paper clip. Click it open and paste the url. Hit ok and click "Post Comment"
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach
The GFS calls for a continued quiet start for the NE Pacific TC season with no significant TCs for next 10 days.
It took me only a day to master this kindle fire and now I'm a whizz with it. Gotta find a way to get this dragon ball z character off my screen saver though.
Thank you, Grothar, following you instructions this should be the 'link' to the Kluane Glacier / River Diversion from #319.

Link
Grothar laid out the great Giza pyramids wit a framing square. Me,well it was during my imbibing years....so that's how the bent pyramid came to be. Remarkedly...the pharaoh did still pay me.
Quoting 337. GreatSlaveLake:

Thank you, Grothar, following you instructions this should be the 'link' to the Kluane Glacier / River Diversion from #319.

Link

One more thing, when you go to paste your link in the box, first clear the http that is in there or it will not work. The link you posted didn't work. You should test your link before posting it. Nice try though.
Wow, the blue hole opened up above our little valley yesterday and the temp soared to 60°. No cloud cover all night and the temp dropped to a goose bumping Record Low 36° here in Acme, Wa. Anyone out there have a few extra degrees to give away to someone who is feeling a little low.??.?
you can have all of ours for eternity if i could just find a way to transfer them to you.

Quoting 340. plantmoretrees:

Wow, the blue hole opened up above our little valley yesterday and the temp soared to 60°. No cloud cover all night and the temp dropped to a goose bumping Record Low 36° here in Acme, Wa. Anyone out there have a few extra degrees to give away to someone who is feeling a little low.??.?
42 hrs.
The globe continues to see Agw induced forcings bringing the pain. From record pwats from n america to Europe. Record heat globally and now even Antarctica has passed 400ppm co2.
Quoting 324. Grothar:

End of the month





End of the month CASTER ;-)
My life living in New England for weather. Huh nothing is happening I am so bored. March randomly turns to summer with a hail storm. April 1st thunder strikes, in its wake three more snow storms. Then suddenly nothing is happening. May nothing is happening. June, nothing is happening. Looks at seven day. Hmmmmm what a surprise NOTHING of interest. Takes a look at schedule sighing, "Another day of work with nothing interesting coming from me."
A strong thunderstorm will affect southeastern Palm Beach
County...

At 1201 PM EDT... a strong thunderstorm was located 11 miles west of
Loxahatchee NWR... or 12 miles southwest of Wellington... moving east
at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
West Palm Beach... Boca Raton... Boynton Beach... Delray Beach...
Wellington... Lake Worth... Palm Beach... Highland Beach...
Ocean Ridge... Greenacres... Royal Palm Beach... Palm Springs...
Lantana... Atlantis... Haverhill... Cloud Lake... Village of Golf...
Boca del Mar... hamptons at Boca Raton and Mission Bay.

Frequent lightning is possible with this storm.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm... and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify... so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
Michael Ventrice
%u200F@MJVentrice
Just a MONSTER convectively coupled Kelvin wave pushing across the eastern Indian/Maritime Continent. WOW!

This wave will be pushing towards the Atlantic come early July.I guess this is why the GFS starts the cape verde season early.It could also spark some more home grown development.
Quoting 308. barbamz:

First videos coming in from Karin's violent squall line over Poland, f.e. in this newspaper article.
More on youtube:


Short glimpse from Warsaw.



Watch it from 0:20. Nowe Miasto Lubawskie.


Current lightning (saved).


Wow! We've had some big downpours, but they didn't kick up wind at all. We were in downtown Manchester yesterday, and one of the cells slowly passed over. While we were driving in, my daughter says, 'um, why are these rain drops so massive?' Have to say, I've never seen them as big as they were coming down on the windshield either! I told her we just have to hope they remain massive raindrops and don't turn to hail LOL Because of the deluge, I decided to park in a multistory car park over my favored spot, that is sunken to the surrounding area...just in case.

Looks like the north is being given a break today though. We were in Ellesmere Port the other day when Cheshire Oaks got flooded out as well. Some of the way they build things here, seem to lack common sense, for a place that's already rainy!



Off topic, is anyone here into electronic music or production? My daughter wants to take a music production course, and am wondering what the best software is. We both did a free taster course (as someone didn't show up, so they let me do it too haha) at a music college in Manchester last week, that was using Logic on I-Macs (which was some amazing software!), but I don't have an 'I' anything at home. So if anyone knows of a Windows equivalent, that'd be great. I've tried searching, but not found anything helpful in figuring out what's best. Can inbox me if you like, to keep anyone getting annoyed on the blog about the subject :)
I just stepped outside for lunch in a town West of Tallahassee and the current temp is 91 with high of 98 later today (and it felt like 110 in the parking lot). Given the added heat effects that this recent El Nino has had across the world on top of carbon emission warming, and with the recent back to back global monthly heat records, I dare say that the Earth cannot afford another strong El Nino anytime soon over the next few years and certainly not in terms of ice and glacial melt (and recovery time) in the Northern latitudes and Arctic regions.
353. IDTH
Quoting 325. washingtonian115:


Just a friendly reminder....

Rocket fuel.
354. IDTH
Quoting 350. washingtonian115:

Michael Ventrice
‏@MJVentrice
Just a MONSTER convectively coupled Kelvin wave pushing across the eastern Indian/Maritime Continent. WOW!

This wave will be pushing towards the Atlantic come early July.I guess this is why the GFS starts the cape verde season early.It could also spark some more home grown development also.

I have a feeling July could bring something we haven't seen in quite some time this early in the season. I'm just hoping that the steering pattern does not set something up to traverse through the Caribbean and shear wounds up being low.
Cleveland Tennessee currently 94 degrees with a dew point of 88 feels like 132 degrees. We have a problem?

https://www.wunderground.com/weather-forecast/zmw :37311.1.99999?MR=1
356. Tcwx2
DOOM!
Quoting 355. frank727:

Cleveland Tennessee currently 94 degrees with a dew point of 88 feels like 132 degrees. We have a problem?

https://www.wunderground.com/weather-forecast/zmw :37311.1.99999?MR=1
suing Office: Miami
Source: The National Weather Service

12:18pm EDT, Fri Jun 17

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING UNTIL 12:30PM EDT FRI

AT 1216 PM EDT... A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER PALM AIRE... OR OVER MARGATE... MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. THIS STORM IS ALSO PRODUCING AN EXCESSIVE NUMBER OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

HAZARD... 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE... RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT... EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS... SIDING... AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... FORT LAUDERDALE... CORAL SPRINGS... POMPANO BEACH... PLANTATION AND SUNRISE. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING.

Quoting 345. Greg01:


End of the month CASTER ;-)


:)
192 hrs.
Quoting 207. pureet1948:



Remember what Srainhoutex said, Bucsboltsfan. An MCS moving W-SW into a superheated airmass IS a recipe for serious trouble. All I wanted to know was how great the risk is. (The Houston NWS discos are of little help here, as they don't mention what Srainhoutex has mentioned.)


Well, this IS Houston where the unexpected is usually expected. Prepare for everything from Sun Screen to generators.
Frost damage in the garden, a month+ later than any other year. Really not having good luck this year with the extreme swings in temp. Greenhouse is really paying off, tomato's and peppers are looking fine. Squash n beans are not happy outside.....aaaaahhhhhhrrrgggg!!!
Quoting 354. IDTH:


I have a feeling July could bring something we haven't seen in quite some time this early in the season. I'm just hoping that the steering pattern does not set something up to traverse through the Caribbean and shear wounds up being low.

Maybe an early major like Bertha, Dennis or Emily?
Quoting 362. plantmoretrees:

Frost damage in the garden, a month+ later than any other year. Really not having good luck this year with the extreme swings in temp. Greenhouse is really paying off, tomato's and peppers are looking fine. Squash n beans are not happy outside.....aaaaahhhhhhrrrgggg!!!


Where is your geographic area? Just curious.
Invest 93E's window for development is closing as shear increases and the disturbance enters an increasingly dry environment. The wait for Agatha continues...

Quoting 363. HurricaneFan:


Maybe an early major like Bertha, Dennis or Emily?
I was just thinking that.
Quoting 355. frank727:

Cleveland Tennessee currently 94 degrees with a dew point of 88 feels like 132 degrees. We have a problem?

https://www.wunderground.com/weather-forecast/zmw :37311.1.99999?MR=1


NWS is reporting 93 degrees in Chattanooga with a dewpoint of 65F (heat index of 95F). I'm guessing that there is something seriously wrong with that weather reporting station in Cleveland TN as there are no heat headlines for south central Tennessee.
Quoting 355. frank727:

Cleveland Tennessee currently 94 degrees with a dew point of 88 feels like 132 degrees. We have a problem?

https://www.wunderground.com/weather-forecast/zmw :37311.1.99999?MR=1


I wouldn't trust Wunderground private weather stations. TWC has your current temperature at 90 with a Heat Index of 95, dew point of 67!
Quoting 366. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Invest 93E's window for development is closing as shear increases and the disturbance enters an increasingly dry environment. The wait for Agatha continues...




and it looks like the next 10 days per GFS looks like the E PAC will be dead i think they be lucky if they get 5 named storms this season
Low almost off the Carolina Coast.
Quoting 314. PedleyCA:


Only 2 more days till the Fish Fry, 83F yesterday, 93 forecast today here.


Please........Take my weather!
I need some help understanding something on Figure 1.

Why is it that between the December of a year, take 2015 for instance at 0.90... there is a major jump in value to the next month (January 2016 = 1.03) where there are no similar jumps between months anywhere on the chart (with the possible exception of the 1998 chart)?

(Rounded values based on eyeballing the chart...)
12/09 = 0.61 --> 01/10 = 0.70.
---
12/13 = 0.62 --> 01/14 = 0.69
12/14 = 0.73 --> 01/15 = 0.81
12/15 = 0.90 --> 01/16 = 1.03

Maybe I'm reading it wrong? If you drew out all of the lines from 2009-2016 and laid them end to end, it would stair-step at the beginning of every year. Just seems like something's off.
374. beell
Quoting 364. washingtonian115:

lol



Fixed it.

Quoting 340. plantmoretrees:

Wow, the blue hole opened up above our little valley yesterday and the temp soared to 60°. No cloud cover all night and the temp dropped to a goose bumping Record Low 36° here in Acme, Wa. Anyone out there have a few extra degrees to give away to someone who is feeling a little low.??.?

I'll give you the 90s were forecast to get tomorrow through Monday I'll even add the humidity for fun
Quoting 374. beell:



Fixed it.


Good One!
Good Morning Class! Gonna be a hotty week here on the left coast this week. Up to 20 above normal, might see highs of 100-110 even at my Soo Cal mountain location. The A/C will be well oiled and ready for action!
perhaps we get a sprinkle....still really need it and it cools it down so much...
Quoting 360. Climate175:

192 hrs.
Quoting 374. beell:



Fixed it.



Lolol we can laugh, but the EMWF shows lowering pressures in that area. Subject to change though.

YIKES....
381. ariot
Quoting 351. mitthbevnuruodo:



Off topic, is anyone here into electronic music or production? My daughter wants to take a music production course, and am wondering what the best software is. We both did a free taster course (as someone didn't show up, so they let me do it too haha) at a music college in Manchester last week, that was using Logic on I-Macs (which was some amazing software!), but I don't have an 'I' anything at home. So if anyone knows of a Windows equivalent, that'd be great. I've tried searching, but not found anything helpful in figuring out what's best. Can inbox me if you like, to keep anyone getting annoyed on the blog about the subject :)


Off topic, you have probably found out by now that Abelton Live is widely used and supported as a PC DAW. If she's a student, it'll be expensive but way cheaper. I think the student price was down around EU 250, but full retail is like EU 600. It is robust.

BitWig is popular in Europe, I think some Germans made it. I don't know the cost.

I only know because some of our support work gets into audio and sometimes I watch them. One of the kids does his own tracks on Ableton.

As I understand it there is the consumer level stuff and then there's DAW stuff that producers use in home studios.
CMC, 66 hrs, it's in the short range, so it won't be crazy.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms have decreased in
association with a tropical wave near the Yucatan peninsula of
Mexico. Development, if any, of this system should be slow to
occur due to proximity to land while it moves westward or west-
northwestward at about 10 mph over the Bay of Campeche and
southwestern Gulf of Mexico over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percen
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms have decreased in
association with a tropical wave near the Yucatan peninsula of
Mexico. Development, if any, of this system should be slow to
occur due to proximity to land while it moves westward or west-
northwestward at about 10 mph over the Bay of Campeche and
southwestern Gulf of Mexico over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
Quoting 373. SINCLAJ1:

I need some help understanding something on Figure 1.

Why is it that between the December of a year, take 2015 for instance at 0.90... there is a major jump in value to the next month (January 2016 = 1.03) where there are no similar jumps between months anywhere on the chart (with the possible exception of the 1998 chart)?

(Rounded values based on eyeballing the chart...)
12/09 = 0.61 --> 01/10 = 0.70.
---
12/13 = 0.62 --> 01/14 = 0.69
12/14 = 0.73 --> 01/15 = 0.81
12/15 = 0.90 --> 01/16 = 1.03

Maybe I'm reading it wrong? If you drew out all of the lines from 2009-2016 and laid them end to end, it would stair-step at the beginning of every year. Just seems like something's off.


Its the: Cumulative departures from normal in global temperature (year to date). Basically each calendar year it starts over. Winters have been warmer than average than the summers.

cumulative: increasing or increased in quantity, degree, or force by successive additions.

So to calculate the cumulative departure for each month, the departures are added together from that month and the previous months in the calendar year and divided by the total number of months.

Edit: forgot a part of the necessary calculations (the division)
could the E PAC end up haveing no named storms this season? has that ever happen be for?
Lots of pop up storms starting to form along the frontal boundry across the SE with some nice cells headed into Metro-Atlanta at the moment:

Southeast sector loop

Quoting 370. Tazmanian:



and it looks like the next 10 days per GFS looks like the E PAC will be dead i think they be lucky if they get 5 named storms this season

Calm down there, Taz. Even the least active seasons in the modern era (1977 and 2010) ended with 8 named storms.
Quoting 389. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Calm down there, Taz. Even the least active seasons in the modern era (1977 and 2010) ended with 8 named storms.


1983 had fewer than both I think
Currently at my abode: 78 and sunny probably going to high 80's today.........then like Ped says, the "fish fry" begins for a few days which sometimes linger into several days, as it does not always cool as fast as forecast.........let's hope the heat wave does not linger!

Sounds like a beach week if one is able to get there.




Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA. SSSSD (SDGE)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Fri, 17 Jun 10:50 am PDT
Most Recent Observation: Fri, 17 Jun 10:40 am
Explanation of Wx and Clouds columns.
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
17 Jun 10:40 am 78 37 23 NW 5G11 OK
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL KERSHAW COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...
EAST CENTRAL CALHOUN COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...
SOUTHEASTERN RICHLAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...
WEST CENTRAL CLARENDON COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...
SUMTER COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 245 PM EDT

* AT 207 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES
NORTHWEST OF EASTOVER...OR 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
WOODFIELDS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO
MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS...AND OUTBUILDINGS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SUMTER...SOUTH SUMTER...EASTOVER...MILLWOOD...OAKLAND...PINEWOOD. ..
CANE SAVANNAH...WEDGEWOOD...LAKEWOOD...REMBERT...PRIVAT EER...
STATEBURG...CHERRYVALE AND DALZELL.
Quoting 382. Climate175:

CMC, 66 hrs, it's in the short range, so it won't be crazy.


Looks like Central Florida's gonna get that rare June frontal passage. Not that it amounts to much this time of year!
Quoting 382. Climate175:

CMC, 66 hrs, it's in the short range, so it won't be crazy.

The cyclone off the east coast looks rather subtropical.

NAVEGEM showing weak development of the caribbean T.W.It also shows a developing storm down in the caribbean at around the same time the GFS does.
A closer look at this rather unseasonal storm and its impressive structure.

Screenshot at 1830 GMT. The low is entering the Baltic Sea ; at Liepaja International Airport (Latvia), atmos. pressure is now 991 hpa.
* MetOffice - Sat/lightn. strikes animation, June 15-16 *
Does a system have to be at least 20/20 to be declared an invest?

Subtropical Storm Danielle?
Quoting 391. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Currently at my abode: 78 and sunny probably going to high 80's today.........then like Ped says, the "fish fry" begins for a few days which sometimes linger into several days, as it does not always cool as fast as forecast.........let's hope the heat wave does not linger!

Sounds like a beach week if one is able to get there.




Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA. SSSSD (SDGE)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Fri, 17 Jun 10:50 am PDT
Most Recent Observation: Fri, 17 Jun 10:40 am
Explanation of Wx and Clouds columns.
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
17 Jun 10:40 am 78 37 23 NW 5G11 OK

Huntington Beach is forecast 90 on Sunday and 93 on Monday, Dayum.....
Quoting 388. Patrap:


Yea its scorching out here uptown Pat. I was almost drenched in sweat walking to work man.
404. Ed22
Quoting 401. HurricaneFan:


Subtropical Storm Danielle?
Danielle is on its way, it could be the fourth earliest storm for 2016 Hurricane season...
405. Tcwx2
No requirements for an invest to be able issued.
Quoting 400. HurricaneFan:

Does a system have to be at least 20/20 to be declared an invest?
406. Tcwx2
I'm really going to get hit hard if the line of storms in N Alabama makes to S Alabama.
Quoting 400. HurricaneFan:

Does a system have to be at least 20/20 to be declared an invest?


yes
Quoting 405. Tcwx2:

No requirements for an invest to be able issued.


OK then if there no requirements then why is this storm that we been tracking the past two day or so not a invest then? the NHC requirements are that the tropic weather out look on any storm needs too have at lest 20% be for it can be called a invest that is how the NHC has dos thing in the past we did not get 93L in tell it got up too 20%
Quoting 390. win1gamegiantsplease:



1983 had fewer than both I think

Just the opposite. 1983 was one of the most active seasons in the Pacific (21-12-8).
Thanks Pedley,
I did try it, and it wouldn't work for me .... couldn't see why though, so I thought it might be tat my end (things go awry in the North for a great many reasons –– without warning).
So here's another try at posting the link to the Kluane Glacier retreat causing a large river to flow to the Pacific instead of the Arctic Ocean.

Link

4000+ acres burned in Santa Barbara. Image courtesy L.A. times.
Sherpa Fire
#411 That link worked. Well done...
Savannah, GA
KSAV

99 °F
Feels Like 111 °F


Ugggh...

Massive thunderstorms over Western Africa/Sahara a few days ago have lifted upwards lots of dust and the huge plume is crossing the Mediterranean sea now. It will be interesting to see if there are many red rain reports, or any infortunate interaction between the aerosols and rain/cloud formation (see latest study, some links are hanging around in the blogs) linking this to extreme thunderstorm/rain events.

On the visible satellite pictures today you could actually see the dust wrapping around the deep low.
416. Tcwx2
It does? Sorry I didn't know that. This system isn't worth putting an invest on, 80% chance that it won't develop.
Quoting 408. Tazmanian:



OK then if there no requirements then why is this storm that we been tracking the past two day or so not a invest then? the NHC requirements are that the tropic weather out look on any storm needs too have at lest 20% be for it can be called a invest that is how the NHC has dos thing in the past we did not get 93L in tell it got up too 20%
417. Tcwx2
Taz..no it doesn't.
The designation of a system as an invest does not correspond to any particular likelihood of development of the system into a tropical cyclone; operational products such as the Tropical Weather Outlook or the JTWC/TCFA should be consulted for this purpose.
From: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
Quoting 417. Tcwx2:

Taz..no it doesn't.
The designation of a system as an invest does not correspond to any particular likelihood of development of the system into a tropical cyclone; operational products such as the Tropical Weather Outlook or the JTWC/TCFA should be consulted for this purpose.
From: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml

tHEY START TO DECLARE A INVEST WHEN A AREA OF DISRTURBED WEATHERT STARTS TO LOOK HEALTHIER
Second mescale discussion of the day available in Estofex, now for the developing system in the Balkans:

The tail of the cold front is moving from the E parts of Poland, Slovakia and Hungary into the west of the Ukraine and Romania in form of a distinct wind shift line. Ahead of it, mostly southerly low-level winds are present. Apart from areas where downslope winds have locally mixed out the low-level moisture, observed dewpoints are often around 20C. The prefrontal air mass is hence probably characterized with CAPE around 2000 J/kg, 0-3 km vertical wind shear on the order of 20 m/s, veering low-level winds, and a strong capping inversion. ...
More see Estofex.

And here it is, currently in Romania:



-------------------------------

Meanwhile on the other side of Europe:
Birmingham flash flooding causes more chaos
BBC, 17 June 2016
Flash flooding across the West Midlands has caused chaos with hundreds of homes, businesses, cars and roads becoming submerged under water. ...
Quoting 352. weathermanwannabe:

I just stepped outside for lunch in a town West of Tallahassee and the current temp is 91 with high of 98 later today (and it felt like 110 in the parking lot). Given the added heat effects that this recent El Nino has had across the world on top of carbon emission warming, and with the recent back to back global monthly heat records, I dare say that the Earth cannot afford another strong El Nino anytime soon over the next few years and certainly not in terms of ice and glacial melt (and recovery time) in the Northern latitudes and Arctic regions.

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation has apparently moved to a positive phase. There is some evidence that El Ninos tend to be stronger when the PDO is positive and La Ninas tend to be stronger during a negative PDO phase. So it seems likely that we'll see stronger El Nino effects and more warming while the PDO remains positive.
Quoting 414. SavannahStorm:

Savannah, GA
KSAV

99 °F
Feels Like 111 °F


Ugggh...



It's just unbearable in this GA heat.
Quoting 411. GreatSlaveLake:

Thanks Pedley,
I did try it, and it wouldn't work for me .... couldn't see why though, so I thought it might be tat my end (things go awry in the North for a great many reasons –– without warning).
So here's another try at posting the link to the Kluane Glacier retreat causing a large river to flow to the Pacific instead of the Arctic Ocean.

Link


it did not work the first time because somehow the http:// was doubled (FYI):
http://http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/slims- river-dries-yukon-kluane-glacier-1.3639472
Had a nasty storm earlier in coral springs weather but station saw a gust to 52mph. Drove around town and only like 3 trees down. We Did have a severe thunderstorm warning so they nailed that one.
vary good ch will see Danielle in the Bay of Campeche storms are no too RI in the Bay of Campeche if you got the right wind shear and we do

Quoting 418. bwi:

Don't know if anybody already posted this, but it's totally badass -- the Tesla of semis.

http://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-think/transpor tation/advanced-cars/electric-truck-startup-nikola -motors-claims-23-billion-preorder-before-prototyp e-is-even-ready




My brother in law has a deposit on one. Can't wait to see if it comes to fruition.
Quoting 426. Tazmanian:

vary good ch will see Danielle in the Bay of Campeche storms are no too RI in the Bay of Campeche if you got the right wind shear and we do



Looks to be organizing right over the Yucatan.
Tons of wind reports from the Wife and relatives in/near Atlanta buzzing on my i-phone the past few hours and I thought they were kidding; not

last3hours Filtered Reports Graphic

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 428. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Looks to be organizing right over the Yucatan.

It looks to be just far enough north to possibly become a tropical cyclone.
Quoting 410. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Just the opposite. 1983 was one of the most active seasons in the Pacific (21-12-8).


I completely missed "E PAC" in Taz's post.