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Spring Heads to a Toasty Finish across the U.S.

By: Bob Henson 4:39 PM GMT on June 13, 2016

The final week of northern spring will have a summery feel across the heart of North America, including much of the U.S. Rockies, Plains, Midwest, and Deep South. In most places, the heat won’t be smashing daily records, but it may persist or recur into next week, adding to its cumulative impact on people and ecosystems. Temperatures are likely to top 100°F from western TX to western KS later this week, with readings from 95°F to 100°F widespread from Arkansas and Louisiana across the South to Georgia by Thursday/Friday. Ample Gulf moisture will push heat indexes well into dangerous territory across large parts of the nation’s midsection and into the Southeast later this week (see Figure 1).


Figure 1. Maximum heat index values are projected to exceed 105°F on Thursday, June 16, 2016, over a large area from the Missouri and Arkansas Valleys of OK, KS, and NE across the mid-Mississippi Valley and parts of the Deep South to the lower elevations of North and South Carolina.. This outlook takes model ensemble data and statistical temperature forecasts into account. There is a chance of heat-index values exceeding 115 on Thursday over parts of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. The NWS calculates heat index values by incorporating the effects of both temperature and relative humidity on bodily comfort. Values above 105°F are considered dangerous during periods of prolonged exposure and/or strenuous activity. Image credit: NOAA/NWS/WPC.


Figure 2. An extremely strong upper-level high will will bring very hot temperatures this coming weekend across the Southwest U.S. Shown here are high and low centers averaged across the 22 members of the GFS Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), for runs produced at 06Z Monday, June 13, 2016, and valid at 18Z (2:00 PM EDT) Sunday, June 19. The labeled lines show the height of the 500-millibar pressure level, expressed in decameters (tens of meters). The higher the pressure level, the warmer the air below it. Values greater than 600 dm, as shown here for the Four Corners area, are only observed during the most extreme heat waves; it’s impressive to see such values showing up in an ensemble average. The orange and blue colors show how much the pressure levels at a given location are above or below the seasonal average, again in decameters. Image credit: www.tropicaltidbits.com; thanks to Richard Grumm, NWS/State College, for calling attention to this model result.


Southwest deserts will be scorching by the weekend
Some of the worst heat in many years could take shape this coming weekend in cities like Phoenix, Yuma, and Tucson, Arizona. Already this month, Phoenix has seen four consecutive record highs (6/3 through 6/7), including the earliest 115°F reading (6/4) since record-keeping began there in 1895. The coming week should bring only garden-variety heat to southern Arizona, which means daily highs within a few degrees of the century mark Fahrenheit, but high pressure building aloft will sharpen the heat dramatically by week’s end. As of Monday morning, the WU forecast for next Sunday, June 19, is calling for highs of 117°F in Phoenix, 116°F in Yuma, and 113°F in Tucson. If it verified, the Phoenix reading would be the warmest on record on any date prior to the summer solstice, and these temperatures are not too far from the all-time records of 122°F in Phoenix (June 26, 1990), 124°F in Yuma (July 28, 1995), and 117°F in Tucson (June 26, 1990). An excessive heat watch is already in effect for much of southwest Arizona and far southeast California, including the Phoenix area, for this coming Friday morning through Monday evening.

Record highs are far outpacing record lows so far this year
Last week’s national climate roundup for May showed that 2016 for the period January through May was running fourth hottest in U.S. history behind only 2012, 2000, and 2006. Statistics from NOAA on daily record highs and lows back up this picture of a very warm year in the U.S. so far. The period from January through May 2016 saw 11,065 daily record highs and only 1,820 record lows (either tied or broken), according to the Daily Weather Records site maintained by NOAA/NCEI. This ratio of around 6 to 1 is very high for a five-month-long period. The lopsided ratio has continued into June: the first nine days of the month produced a preliminary total of 850 daily record highs and 44 daily record lows, according to NOAA/NCEI.

The oddly cool years of 2013 and 2014 both ended up with more daily record lows than record highs, but otherwise there’s been enough heat in this decade to produce a total of 194,467 record highs and 96,651 record lows, according to independent meteorologist Guy Walton, who has tracked daily record highs and lows for many years using NOAA/NCEI data. As shown in Figure 3, the ratio since 2010 of just over 2 record highs to each record low is now outpacing the ratio of just under 2:1 for the previous decade (2000-2009).


Figure 3. The ratio of daily record highs to daily record lows across the United States for each decade since the 1920s, expressed as an increment beyond the 1:1 ratio that one would expect in a stationary climate (one not being warmed by added greenhouse gases). The 2000s produced nearly twice as many record highs as record lows, and thus far the 2010s have been even more heat-skewed. Image credit: Guy Walton.


A journey from severe weather in the Plains to low pressure off the East Coast
A shot of upper-level energy now located over the Desert Southwest is destined to take an interesting path over the next week. As the impulse encounters very warm, unstable air across the Plains, NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center is calling for an enhanced risk of severe weather on Monday across parts of the central High Plains on Monday, shifting to the Missouri and Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. The first half of June is peak tornado season in eastern Colorado, and the Monday setup favors potentially tornadic supercells. Later on Monday night, a large thunderstorm complex packing high wind may rumble eastward across the Central Plains, with a similar complex possible Tuesday night further east. The upper-level impulse and associated severe weather should track onward into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday.


Figure 4. WU depictions of severe weather risk areas for Monday and Tuesday, June 13-14, 2016, as issued by NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center on Monday morning. Areas of enhanced risk (the third highest of five SPC threat levels) were in place for both days.


Toward Friday and the weekend, the upper-level energy will dive south, feeding into the base of a large North Atlantic upper low. This tail-end circulation may be enough to generate a surface low somewhere off the mid-Atlantic or Southeast coast. Several weekend runs of the GFS and ECMWF models suggested that the eventual surface low could linger for a day or two near the Gulf Stream with a piece of the tail-end upper circulation parked over it. Sunday night’s 06Z GFS run backed away from this scenario, moving the upper-level and surface lows eastward more quickly, while the 12Z Monday GFS brings a surface low into the Southeast coast early next week. This setup is worth monitoring for the potential of at least weak subtropical development, keeping in mind the large amount of model uncertainty and long time frame.

It was a quiet weekend across the globe’s tropics, with no systems being tracked by operational agencies on Monday morning. In the eastern North Pacific, we could see a center of low pressure emerge from a large, persistent area of disturbed weather south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. In their outlook issued at 8:00 AM PDT Monday, the NOAA National Hurricane Center gave this area 10% odds of tropical development by Wednesday morning and 50% odds by Saturday morning, with the center of action drifting west-northwest and remaining off the Mexican coast.

We’ll be back with a new post by Wednesday at the latest.

Bob Henson

Heat Extreme Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 454. BaltimoreBrian:

Dakster's description of the horrors of Alaskan heat remind me of this story from Saturday in London:

Watch Guardsman faint at Trooping the Colour ceremony as he takes a tumble at Queen's 90th birthday celebrations




The weather in London on June 11? Low 59, high 71 But consider those uniforms. Made of wool. More than 30 lbs. of wool.


That is the ultimate faceplant.
Quoting 500. CaribBoy:

Actually, the Leewards need La Nina for the rain it brings.
So far it seems the recent rainy pattern hasn't impacted your part of the Antilles very much. Cuba, Hispaniola et al have been pretty moist. Even southern Antilles islands have been getting some rain .... I expect we'll see a change as the season progresses and more Twaves make it to the Caribbean....


June is not a wet month in St Barts (average 55mm) as the tropical waves generally stay south and the SAL is omnipresent, but...
Quoting 493. JLPR2:

Hey everyone, its been awhile! :D

Checking out that TW to the SE of the CVs makes me go hmm... I just hope TWs aren't this potent during August-September.





One day captain trough won't be there to save us and we better be ready because it won't be pretty.
Quoting 502. BahaHurican:

So far it seems the recent rainy pattern hasn't impacted your part of the Antilles very much. Cuba, Hispaniola et al have been pretty moist. Even southern Antilles islands have been getting some rain .... I expect we'll see a change as the season progresses and more Twaves make it to the Caribbean....


Indeed lots of activity was observed near Cuba and Hispaniola. I am jealous lol.
Quoting 85. Autistic2:

I am back from Orlando. He did not make it. The Surgeon could not save him. We were not allowed to see him. Something about the investigation. I will save my emotional, political. outburst for the campfire we are having tonight.

Did not look at all the data bit the NHC does not have their crayons out.

Back in a day or two, or three.


Deepest condolences and sympathies to You Autistic... And For all those who are grieving in the wake of this gruesome tragedy I pray that the Grace & Peace of the Lord of Life- Jesus will be with You and yours! God's ways are certainly not our ways Isaiah 55:8, for God is Love! 1Jn 4:7-8. The true God does LOVE US SO MUCH that he sent us Jesus...Jn 3:16-17. Certainly What God does hate are all those ways of hatred, terrorism, sin and corruption which enslave us & has destroyed so many human lives over the Millennias. May Orlando & by extension the World always remember- to hate the sin, But to LOVE the sinner- & that's ALL of us in the WHOSOEVER BELIEVES IN HIM- Jn3:16. May time bring You healing and the assurance of the Good Lord who is with us always -even unto the end of time. Take to heart also the words of the Lord Jesus who while being murdered himself sincerely prayed-"Father, forgive them; they do not know what they are doing" (Lk 23:34). May the following quotes bring you further Courage, Peace, and the unshakeable hope that hate & evil will NEVER WIN... Romans 5:6-9, 1 Corinthians 15:1-4, Romans 1:16, St. John 3:16,17, and vs. 36, 1 John 5:11-13.
Blessings to All!
As of Monday morning, the WU forecast for next Sunday, June 19, is calling for highs of 117°F in Phoenix, 116°F in Yuma, and 113°F in Tucson.

Phoenix is about 1000 feet lower in elevation, I guess that would be the difference. Not that four degrees in the one-teens means a whole lot, I would assume (having never been).
508. MahFL
Missed out on the rain again, sigh...
Quoting 471. Patrap:




I don't even remember this storm. Probably because we had 25 or so other storms that year. And I generally have a decent memory of at least the ones that make landfall this century..
Quoting 485. MSAussie:

Patrap....before I evacuate, are we expecting puppies anytime soon? :)


We should be fine as Nola Roux had a litter June 6th last year.

I have 2 males here from that litter.

Phoenix to the left, and Baron snoozing.





Quoting 510. win1gamegiantsplease:



I don't even remember this storm. Probably because we had 25 or so other storms that year. And I generally have a decent memory of at least the ones that make landfall this century..


It was a quick right hook.

We were still collecting tree debris when K hit 7 weeks later too.


Formed July 3, 2005
Dissipated July 12, 2005
(Extratropical after July 7, 2005)
Highest winds 1-minute sustained: 75 mph (120 km/h)
Lowest pressure 991 mbar (hPa); 29.26 inHg
Fatalities 1 direct, 4 indirect
Damage $320 million (2005 USD)
Areas affected Yucatán Peninsula, North Carolina, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana
Part of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season

Although still listed as a "Tropical Storm" by the weather service at the time, many laypeople in New Orleans were under the impression that Cindy was a hurricane, and referred to it as "Hurricane Cindy" before it was officially upgraded.
Quoting 508. MahFL:

Missed out on the rain again, sigh...


Me too, just a trace-0.10" here twice this week, while 2.5 miles away at work, it poured for a good while. Going to be another one of "those" summers perhaps.

I posted about it last night, but does anybody have an possible explanation for the temperature anomaly in Zephyrhills, FL (at the official reporting station). Clearly, the topography and other factors create a chilly spot at Zephyrhills, but the report of a temperature of 40F in the early morning of June 10 and freezing fog a few hours later, I just don't think so! That would have to smash some statewide record and would have to be completely unheard of in Central Florida in June. This location consistently reports lows in the 50s to lower 60s, even well into summer. I just don't buy that I can be sweating in 78F temps in Orlando and drive 60 miles to Zephyrhills and it be chilly.
Quoting 507. win1gamegiantsplease:

As of Monday morning, the WU forecast for next Sunday, June 19, is calling for highs of 117°F in Phoenix, 116°F in Yuma, and 113°F in Tucson.

Phoenix is about 1000 feet lower in elevation, I guess that would be the difference. Not that four degrees in the one-teens means a whole lot, I would assume (having never been).


You know it's a dry heat...
Quoting 514. HurrMichaelOrl:



Me too, just a trace-0.10" here twice this week, while 2.5 miles away at work, it poured for a good while. Going to be another one of "those" summers perhaps.

I posted about it last night, but does anybody have an possible explanation for the temperature anomaly in Zephyrhills, FL (at the official reporting station). Clearly, the topography and other factors create a chilly spot at Zephyrhills, but the report of a temperature of 40F in the early morning of June 10 and freezing fog a few hours later, I just don't think so! That would have to smash some statewide record and would have to be completely unheard of in Central Florida in June. This location consistently reports lows in the 50s to lower 60s, even well into summer. I just don't buy that I can be sweating in 78F temps in Orlando and drive 60 miles to Zephyrhills and it be chilly.


Quoting 272. Naga5000:



That is an error. You can see it more clearly in the time series of the data here. While it's a reporting station, the records there are not "official".




May 2016 was the warmest May on record for the earth, according to an analysis released Monday by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. The top three warmest Mays in NASA's dataset have all now occurred in the last three years.

The global temperature departure in May 2016 was 0.93 degrees Celsius above the 1951-1980 average. This beat the previous May record set in 2014 by 0.07 degrees Celsius. This also marks the eighth consecutive month in a row in NASA's dataset that the earth has recorded its warmest respective month on record.
Quoting 513. Patrap:



It was a quick right hook.

We were still collecting tree debris when K hit 7 weeks later too.


Formed July 3, 2005
Dissipated July 12, 2005
(Extratropical after July 7, 2005)
Highest winds 1-minute sustained: 75 mph (120 km/h)
Lowest pressure 991 mbar (hPa); 29.26 inHg
Fatalities 1 direct, 4 indirect
Damage $320 million (2005 USD)
Areas affected Yucatán Peninsula, North Carolina, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana
Part of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season

Although still listed as a "Tropical Storm" by the weather service at the time, many laypeople in New Orleans were under the impression that Cindy was a hurricane, and referred to it as "Hurricane Cindy" before it was officially upgraded.


Cindy was also very impressive well inland. I sat on a glassed porch in Atlanta the night Cindy visited us in the Piedmont and watched an absolutely incredible lightning display. Cindy was the storm that dropped the tornado on Atlanta Motor Speedway, to the tune of $24 million IIRC.


So El Nino is back... hopefully not for long
Quoting 519. CaribBoy:



So El Nino is back... hopefully not for long

Hope it is around for awhile. I haven't got my rain yet.....lol
Quoting 482. Dakster:



Aren't we special... and priveledged....


If I lived in that hot box I would too. BTW, I have water, and it isn't even metered there is so much of it around me. I pay a small flat fee per month no matter how much I use.

If your water isn't metered it seems like you could use it for air conditioning. Just get a truck radiator or two and run the water through them with a fan to blow the air. I assume the water temperature is relatively cold there.
Quoting 512. Patrap:



We should be fine as Nola Roux had a litter June 6th last year.

I have 2 males here from that litter.

Phoenix to the left, and Baron snoozing.








Okay putting the sandbags away then :P They are handsome. Glad you were able to keep some of the litter.
Quoting 481. Dakster:

Hmmm. The rain ins trumping the right to vote...
I see what you did there ;)


The GFS not showing development but will likely develop
Quoting 524. James1981cane:



The GFS not showing development but will likely develop


You can stretch the definition and say that one closed isobar is at least a pseudo tropical depression/storm on a global model representation.
Quoting 482. Dakster:



Aren't we special... and priveledged....


If I lived in that hot box I would too. BTW, I have water, and it isn't even metered there is so much of it around me. I pay a small flat fee per month no matter how much I use.


I don't know if it's because I'm from droughty Calif or what....but here in the rainy North West UK, I have found my water bills WAY cheaper if I have a meter, over their flat fee. Flat fee about £30 a month, if I'm on a meter, about £15 a month. I do still keep drought practice with water, so maybe why...

As for A/C....Pedley is way tougher than I! I can keep the heaters off, pretty much all or most of winter...but in So Calif, not the A/C!


Severe Weather Alerts - Houston, TX




Special Weather Statement

Special Weather Statement in effect until Wednesday, 7:15 AM CDT. Source: U.S. National Weather Service





...ELEVATED HEAT INDEX VALUES EXPECTED THIS WEEK...

HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 TO 107 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S COMBINE WITH DEW
POINT VALUES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. THESE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT THE BODY/S ABILITY TO PROPERLY COOL ITSELF
AND CAN LEAD TO HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.

MOTORISTS... PLEASE REMEMBER TO CHECK CAR BACKSEATS FOR
PASSENGERS AND PETS BEFORE EXITING YOUR VEHICLE. IF OUTDOORS...
DRINK PLENTY OF WATER...TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR
INDOORS...AND WEAR LIGHT COLORED AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING.


Dear Justmehouston.

Need your opinion on what I've just posted.

Is it likely that ERCOT will issue conservation alerts because of this heat? Does this look like the Summer of 2011 all over again?
Quoting 527. pureet1948:





Does this look like the Summer of 2011 all over again?


No. The ridge isn't going to sit there all summer like in 2011.
Quoting 515. Dakster:



You know it's a dry heat...


But when it's that hot, it doesn't matter much :/ And it can be quite localised. When I moved back to the Coachella Valley after 10 years away, the climate had changed. What was once dry heat in Palm Desert/Rancho Mirage, was humid, because of all the gold courses built in the time between the times I lived there, getting trapped between the hills and mountains. It was horrendous! But, if you got out of the area the humidity settled in, say Desert Hot Springs, you were back in the dry heat...though, not much relief, at least it wasn't humid too, but still unbearable!
Quoting 516. Naga5000:








Yeah that temperature sensor is clearly out of whack. What had me going is that the daily high temperatures are very plausible and the evening temperature falls and morning temperature rises look believable.

For example: 6:00 pm, 82F, 7:00 pm 80F, 8:00 pm 77F, 9:00 pm 73F, 10:00 pm 71F, 11:00 pm 68F, 12:00 am 66F, 1:00 am 65F, 2:00 am 63F, 3:00 am 62F, 4:00 am 60F, 5:00 am 59F, 6:00 am 58F, 7:00 am 59F....etc. Well cooler than would be expected, but the data does not present as an "out of whack" temperature sensor, but perhaps an inaccurate one and/or one that is sited in an odd circumstance that allows radiational cooling to affect the temperature readings at night. Don't know where one could possibly find substantial radiational cooling in Central FL in summer, but that is all I could think.

In contrast, this is an example of what I would expect a sensor suddenly providing completely false temp readings to look like: 6:00 pm, 82F, 7:00 pm 80F, 8:00 pm 77F, 9:00 pm 61F, 10:00 pm 71F, 11:00 pm 68F, 12:00 am 36F, 1:00 am 42F, 2:00 am 18F, 3:00 am 50F, 4:00 am 62F, 5:00 am 59F, 6:00 am 58F, 7:00 am 49F....etc. That kind of thing.

Clearly, the sensor reads too low at night on a consistent basis and went totally haywire on the morning on June 10. So I call these 58F lows we have been seeing in Zephyrhills Airport to be bogus. There are some isolated rural spots that commonly have lows in the mid-60s to around 70F all summer long though. I will look for some personal weather stations around Zephyrhills and compare with the airport readings.
Quoting 519. CaribBoy:



So El Nino is back... hopefully not for long


No it is not back not even closed too be being back we are in a warm neutral too cold neutral at this time but EL Nino is not back
Quoting 528. KoritheMan:



No. The ridge isn't going to sit there all summer like in 2011.



Then electricity conservation is not likely to be needed like it was in 2011?
Quoting 519. CaribBoy:



So El Nino is back... hopefully not for long


Fluctuations exist. Stop expecting a uniform SST distribution. Weather doesn't work like that.
Quoting 532. pureet1948:




Then electricity conservation is not likely to be needed like it was in 2011?


I doubt it unless it gets really bad. June and July heat waves are pretty common.
Rain just woke me up....

Didn't expect it to drift this far north...
Quoting 526. mitthbevnuruodo:



I don't know if it's because I'm from droughty Calif or what....but here in the rainy North West UK, I have found my water bills WAY cheaper if I have a meter, over their flat fee. Flat fee about £30 a month, if I'm on a meter, about £15 a month. I do still keep drought practice with water, so maybe why...

As for A/C....Pedley is way tougher than I! I can keep the heaters off, pretty much all or most of winter...but in So Calif, not the A/C!

I do have a very nice water cooler(from Australia) and the humidity allows me to use it often during the summer or I'd be in the poorhouse.
538. JRRP7
Quoting 493. JLPR2:

Hey everyone, its been awhile! :D

Checking out that TW to the SE of the CVs makes me go hmm... I just hope TWs aren't this potent during August-September.





Quoting 506. NatureIsle:



Deepest condolences and sympathies to You Autistic... And For all those who are grieving in the wake of this gruesome tragedy I pray that the Grace & Peace of the Lord of Life- Jesus will be with You and yours! God's ways are certainly not our ways Isaiah 55:8, for God is Love! 1Jn 4:7-8. The true God does LOVE US SO MUCH that he sent us Jesus...Jn 3:16-17. Certainly What God does hate are all those ways of hatred, terrorism, sin and corruption which enslave us & has destroyed so many human lives over the Millennias. May Orlando & by extension the World always remember- to hate the sin, But to LOVE the sinner- & that's ALL of us in the WHOSOEVER BELIEVES IN HIM- Jn3:16. May time bring You healing and the assurance of the Good Lord who is with us always -even unto the end of time. Take to heart also the words of the Lord Jesus who while being murdered himself sincerely prayed-"Father, forgive them; they do not know what they are doing" (Lk 23:34). May the following quotes bring you further Courage, Peace, and the unshakeable hope that hate & evil will NEVER WIN... Romans 5:6-9, 1 Corinthians 15:1-4, Romans 1:16, St. John 3:16,17, and vs. 36, 1 John 5:11-13.
Blessings to All!



Oh they know what they are doing alright, and you can take that to the bank!
Quoting 445. Dakster:



Going to get a little warm for you Ped. That 107F doesn't look fun.

Death Valley may make a run toward its record starting next Tuesday with a forecast high of 124 and climbing.
Sorry about that.
Now go back to bed :-}

Quoting 535. BahaHurican:

Rain just woke me up....

Didn't expect it to drift this far north...
Quoting 525. KoritheMan:



You can stretch the definition and say that one closed isobar is at least a pseudo tropical depression/storm on a global model representation.


Sorry I got it


the euro is trending more north on this run it has it a weak tropical depression maybe at landfall around 150 miles south of Brownsville tx
Still a bit lazy, but there's a slight spin and cold cloudtops already. It could become interesting to watch later today if convection intensifies over the ocean.
Quoting 544. 999Ai2016:

Still a bit lazy, but there's a slight spin and cold cloudtops already. It could become interesting to watch later today.


Yep it is looking great by Friday we will have a better idea about what will happen
Quoting 541. swflurker:

Sorry about that.
Now go back to bed :-}


I accept your apology, and yes, I did get back to sleep... never actually got out of bed in the first place ....
:-)
Probably picked up another 1/4 inch of rain overnight....
gentle slop towards la nina.
Good Morning. Here is the SPC outlook for today and the storm reports from yesterday; 15 tornadoes which is down from the normal total numbers we usually see by this time in June (a good thing) but still a significant number generated in one day and consistent with the typical June numbers for that region from the chart below:

yesterday Reports Graphic




549. Tcwx2

Man that tropical wave still looks good maybe something to watch if it makes it to the Carribean.
And in terms of the global tropics, here is the TCFP chart for today; nothing on the short term horizon on this product with the exception of the E-Pac and a few dots; one off the Carolinas and one in the Indian Ocean.  And NHC is noting possible BOC development in the longer-term.






I am back. Just read through the entire blog. Thank you all understanding. I used to get mad and say things I did not mean about these people or those people. This group or that group. After seeing !!!!!!! the results of that type of thinking.

My new reality is that I don't ACTUALLY wish harm to anyone that is not hurting others. My time with an M16 is over. Younger men and (now) women will have to finish this.

One hell of a price to pay to make me a better person.



Back to work today.

Crayons are out.
And further to the East, the TCFP chart (from yesterday) dropped the wave that emerged from Africa but still a good looking wave for this time of the year. Also noting the current shear levels across parts of the Atlantic Basin; that band of shear out in front of the African wave may be one of the reasons it was dropped from the TCFP page.








ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Environmental conditions could favor the formation of a broad area
of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche when a westward moving
tropical wave reaches the area later this weekend. Some slight
development of this low is possible on Sunday or Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Avila
Quoting 527. pureet1948:



Severe Weather Alerts - Houston, TX




Special Weather Statement

Special Weather Statement in effect until Wednesday, 7:15 AM CDT. Source: U.S. National Weather Service





...ELEVATED HEAT INDEX VALUES EXPECTED THIS WEEK...

HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 TO 107 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S COMBINE WITH DEW
POINT VALUES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. THESE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT THE BODY/S ABILITY TO PROPERLY COOL ITSELF
AND CAN LEAD TO HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.

MOTORISTS... PLEASE REMEMBER TO CHECK CAR BACKSEATS FOR
PASSENGERS AND PETS BEFORE EXITING YOUR VEHICLE. IF OUTDOORS...
DRINK PLENTY OF WATER...TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR
INDOORS...AND WEAR LIGHT COLORED AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING.


Dear Justmehouston.

Need your opinion on what I've just posted.

Is it likely that ERCOT will issue conservation alerts because of this heat? Does this look like the Summer of 2011 all over again?

So Pureet, how wet did you get?
I think that the west-ward moving wave referenced in the NHC outlook is the area between Panama and tip of Honduras slowly cruising to the W-NW:

And finally, the Conus look and forecast for today:

Orlando made National News again as a 2 year old was eaten by an Alligator @ the Grand Floridian @ Disney's Magic Kingdom. So sad.
Quoting 557. StormTrackerScott:

Orlando made National News again as a 2 year old was eaten by an Alligator @ the Grand Floridian @ Disney's Magic Kingdom. So sad.


Confirmed he was "eaten"?
Quoting 558. Bucsboltsfan:



Confirmed he was "eaten"?


Honestly doubt it, they will probably find his body. Gators don't feed unless they feel safe and I doubt with all that commotion (boats, helicopters, etc.) that it ever did. Super sad story, I hope they find him to give the parents some closure.
Tropical waves are causing havoc in Africa ...

10 dead in Ghana floods
Quoting 557. StormTrackerScott:

Orlando made National News again as a 2 year old was eaten by an Alligator @ the Grand Floridian @ Disney's Magic Kingdom. So sad.


I think we had enough sad and bad news out of Orlando for one week No more bad news please we had enough
562. MahFL
Quoting 549. Tcwx2:


Man that tropical wave still looks good maybe something to watch if it makes it to the Carribean.


It's too low in latitude.
563. MahFL
Quoting 557. StormTrackerScott:

Orlando made National News again as a 2 year old was eaten by an Alligator @ the Grand Floridian @ Disney's Magic Kingdom. So sad.


Orlando has not had a good week has it ?
564. MahFL
You can't help stupidity though :

"Orange County authorities said the child and his father were wading in about one foot of water outside Disney's Grand Floridian Resort & Spa when the alligator attacked around 9:30 p.m."
Quoting 373. Klipperweather:

So why haven't the record highs and lows for any dates for Philadelphia changed over the years as instruments changed, urbanization increased, and even for the move of the official station from Center City to PHL airport?

Yes, the climate has changed in Philadelphia, too.
http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/locations/39.38N-74. 91W

To what data are you referring when you say that the "record highs and lows...[have not changed]" for Philadelphia?
Quoting 381. Klipperweather:

I remember what many of Philly's record daily highs and lows were as of the mid 1970s. Since then, the Philly metro area had a lot of increase in urbanization and the official station had at least two instrument changes.

What you "remember" from the 1970s (also known as an anecdote) is a particularly weak form of evidence.

Quoting 381. Klipperweather:

My original point is that nights are warmer now than they used to be and spreads between daily maximum and minimum temperatures are decreasing in large part due to increase of urbanization of the country,

I would suggest reading about climate and sources of climate change. Decreasing diurnal temperature change is also a symptom of global warming due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. You are making connections that you do not have evidence for.

As mentioned several times already, there are serious logical holes in your "original point." People didn't misunderstand your original point, they just pointed out to you how you were incorrect.
Quoting 562. MahFL:



It's too low in latitude.


Hurricane Ivan come too mind It was at vary low latitude
Quoting 454. BaltimoreBrian:

Dakster's description of the horrors of Alaskan heat remind me of this story from Saturday in London:

Watch Guardsman faint at Trooping the Colour ceremony as he takes a tumble at Queen's 90th birthday celebrations




The weather in London on June 11? Low 59, high 71 But consider those uniforms. Made of wool. More than 30 lbs. of wool.


Not so much the wool - the hats are traditionally made from bear fur. Those pass-outs have happened many times before, so we can't blame AGW for this one.
Class 2 (Slight Risk) today.



SPC AC 151244

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

VALID 151300Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WI...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OH TO MID-MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN MT...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN STATES TO SRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THE OHIO VALLEY
STATES. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL MAY DEVELOP OVER EASTERN MONTANA
TONIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOULD TURN EAST THEN SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA SHOULD REMAIN ALONG/JUST OFF THE
WEST COAST. IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS.

...WISCONSIN...
COMPARATIVELY GREATEST SEVERE RISK FOR ALL HAZARDS IS EXPECTED HERE
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE TRACKING ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LOW SHOULD AID IN SCATTERED STORMS
DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
STATE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AS THE WARM SECTOR
BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE /AFTER MORNING STRATUS DISSIPATES/ AMID
GENERALLY 63-68 DEGREE F SURFACE DEW POINTS. A COMPACT 700-500 MB
JET WILL YIELD SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER WITH A
COUPLE EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS NEAR THE WARM
FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT A RISK FOR A TORNADIC STORM OR TWO.

...OHIO VALLEY STATES...
SCATTERED STORMS ARE ONGOING FROM WESTERN OHIO INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
AMPLE INSOLATION WILL OCCUR AHEAD AND BEHIND THESE SMALL
CLUSTERS...WITHIN A RICHLY MOIST AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60S
TO MIDDLE 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS. RENEWED SCATTERED STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. MODEST DEEP SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERAL SEMI-ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

...EASTERN MONTANA...
IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TROUGH...SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ARE CONFINED TO A PLUME IN THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR EASTERN MONTANA. MINIMAL LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
OWING TO THE BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE SUGGEST DIABATICALLY-DRIVEN
STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE INHIBITED. TONIGHT...CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE INDICATES A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD APPROACH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS WILL YIELD INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS. WHILE MLCIN WILL PROBABLY REMAIN LARGE...ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS MAY FORM. SUFFICIENT SPEED SHEAR
WITHIN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT A PRIMARY RISK OF
SEVERE HAIL.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
MORNING RAOBS CONFIRM THAT WITH ABUNDANT INSOLATION...A STRONG TO
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE FROM
CENTRAL KANSAS SOUTH. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE
DAY. CONVERGENCE MAY REMAIN WEAK ALONG THE DRYLINE...WITH IT
EXPECTED TO RETREAT WEST/NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...STORM
COVERAGE MAY BE ISOLATED AT MOST. WHILE DEEP SHEAR WILL BE
WEAK...THE DEGREE OF BUOYANCY SUGGESTS A CONDITIONAL SEVERE
HAIL/WIND RISK REMAINS WARRANTED.

..GRAMS/LEITMAN.. 06/15/2016
Your daily hurricane propaganda map

Can you believe it ? Yesterday, Etna volcano, Italy. Via #keraunos.
Quoting 526. mitthbevnuruodo:



I don't know if it's because I'm from droughty Calif or what....but here in the rainy North West UK, I have found my water bills WAY cheaper if I have a meter, over their flat fee. Flat fee about £30 a month, if I'm on a meter, about £15 a month. I do still keep drought practice with water, so maybe why...

As for A/C....Pedley is way tougher than I! I can keep the heaters off, pretty much all or most of winter...but in So Calif, not the A/C!

I wish our water bills were that reasonable... we typically pay up to 100 dollars every two months, but if we water the landscaping during a dry spell, (less than one acre) we pay up to 400 dollars for two months. That really discourages landscaping upgrades. This is the Chicago suburbs, Lake Michigan notwithstanding. (Where our water comes from)
Quoting 564. MahFL:

You can't help stupidity though :

"Orange County authorities said the child and his father were wading in about one foot of water outside Disney's Grand Floridian Resort & Spa when the alligator attacked around 9:30 p.m."
Child endangerment comes to mind.
NHC has not mentioned anything (yet) but ECMWF still appears to be forming a possible subtropical cyclone Sunday off the U.S. east coast. It appears to be more of a hybrid storm with both tropical and extratropical characteristics.
Largo Florida Now at 10:00 am temperature is 96.6 with a dew point of 82 feels like 120 degrees. Houston we have a problem?
Quoting 559. VAbeachhurricanes:



Honestly doubt it, they will probably find his body. Gators don't feed unless they feel safe and I doubt with all that commotion (boats, helicopters, etc.) that it ever did. Super sad story, I hope they find him to give the parents some closure.


I agree and that's why I questioned Scott if it was confirmed if he was easten. Very very sad.
I grew up in England .... the Guards used to have one or two faint very time they had a big parade .... the heat and uniforms contribute, but the main cause is their training --- they stand absolutely still, totally rigid and tense, which impedes normal blood flow to the brain.
This is why, when they are on sentry duty, they march up and down once every five minutes .... so they don't pass out.
Quoting 564. MahFL:

You can't help stupidity though :
Quoting 572. SouthTampa:

Child endangerment comes to mind.

It could have been pure ignorance. I'd bet that the father felt safe wading with his child in one foot of water. I wonder if there were any warning signs of the hazards there?
* tropic.ssec.wisc.edu

* 1230 UTC. Invest 93E, IR/WV Diff. (experimental) ; Things are aligning well for the meeting. Only need vorticity values to increase a bit (they're quite low at the moment) before alarm bells ring in my mind. Yellow contours = shear values. GFS isn't picking up the system though.
Quoting 577. ChiThom:

Quoting 564. MahFL:

You can't help stupidity though :

It could have been pure ignorance. I'd bet that the father felt safe wading with his child in one foot of water. I wonder if there were any warning signs of the hazards there?


Yes, but they say "no swimming" from what I've read. Technically, they weren't "swimming," but they've never had a previous alligator attack in that park lake.

Unrelated story here in Fort Myers. 11-foot gator found in Fort Myers drain

Link

Keeping things on topic. We're looking at a mostly sunny day across S.W. Florida. Hopefully, there are no sea breeze storms to deal with and we can dry out. We've had too much rain in my area.
Quoting 569. washingtonian115:

Your daily hurricane propaganda map



Brings out the evil in all of us. :D
Dry Season Stats
The 2015/2016 South Florida dry season was the wettest November through May
since 1957/1958 and the second wettest since recordkeeping began in 1932. Districtwide,
29.49 inches of rain fell, representing 168 percent of average, or 11.98 inches
above average.
Link
Quoting 580. KoritheMan:



Brings out the evil in all of us. :D
I wonder if it will just sit there like it has done the past 5 years.The seedling that the boc storm will come from will be over land for the most part.The gulf so far this season has been shut down for business.
583. elioe
Good evening,

most of GFS ensemble members have dropped the western Gulf of Mexico storm, whereas GFS and ECMWF create only weak lows. In my mind, chances of formation have dropped rapidly. I'd give 40% for any eventual formation. Oh well. At least there are other (ghost) storms to be followed. Perhaps something east of North Carolina in five days (CMC). Or something moving to northeast near Eastern U.S. in 8-10 days (GFS, though it keeps the low inland). Or something in Gulf of Mexico in 12-15 days (GFS ensemble).
Is Weds a Fla Dry or wet season?

Tia'
I'll say this

Ouch

Now


2005


It's kinda making '05 look like child's play
586. MahFL
The 12z GFS is running, has a low near the Carolina's in only 18 hours.
587. MahFL
Quoting 585. wunderkidcayman:

I'll say this

Ouch

Now


2005


It's kinda making '05 look like child's play


I'm not religious but Jesus that is a lot of deep hot water.
Quoting 585. wunderkidcayman:

I'll say this

Ouch

Now


2005


It's kinda making '05 look like child's play


Oh geez hot damn

Also out beats

2007



2008



It even beats
2010

589. elioe
Quoting 585. wunderkidcayman:



All that is needed now is to get disturbances moving a little more north than the current one. July might be interesting.
GOM TCHP

Quoting 585. wunderkidcayman:

I'll say this

Ouch

Now


2005


It's kinda making '05 look like child's play


That is incredibly alarming. I can't imagine what that whole area will be like come August. And if a storm with good ventilation gets over the top of the NW Caribbean or even extreme SE Gulf, we could see a Wilma-like explosion, intensity-wise. (I say that realizing that, yes, many things have to line up just right - but it's not like we haven't seen THAT happen before.) Again -- very alarming.
593. OKsky
Quoting 590. Patrap:

GOM TCHP



Dumb newb time. :)
I had to lookup what TCHP meant. "Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential"
I know what each of those words mean in isolation, but what do they mean when strung together?
(I assume that higher numbers mean something along the lines of "storms more likely", but I still don't understand what goes into the TCHP measurement)
Quoting 570. 999Ai2016:


Can you believe it ? Yesterday, Etna volcano, Italy. Via #keraunos.

DOOM
Quoting 593. OKsky:


Dumb newb time. :)
I had to lookup what TCHP meant. "Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential"
I know what each of those words mean in isolation, but what do they mean when strung together?
(I assume that higher numbers mean something along the lines of "storms more likely", but I still don't understand what goes into the TCHP measurement)


It quantifies how much energy (in the form of heat) is available for a storm in the underlying ocean water. It takes into account how warm, and to what depth, the warm water extends (the 26 C isotherm]. Obviously, the warmer the surface is contributes to the available energy a storm can "tap into", but the depth to which the warm water extends is also a factor as the storm stirs up the underlying layers. HERE is more info.
Quoting 593. OKsky:


Dumb newb time. :)
I had to lookup what TCHP meant. "Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential"
I know what each of those words mean in isolation, but what do they mean when strung together?
(I assume that higher numbers mean something along the lines of "storms more likely", but I still don't understand what goes into the TCHP measurement)
TCHP is the measurement of how deep the warm water is and in this case the waters are very warm and deep in the caribbean.When you see reds and hues of white it means that if a storm (under the right atmospheric conditions of course) were to come over this area they would have the potential to explode in intensification and RI is a real possibility.So far no storms have taken advantage of these waters and as others have pointed out this amount of energy this early in the season is indeed alarming.
Here is an example of how deep (in meters) the 26 C isotherm is in the:

Caribbean.



GOM

Quoting 584. Patrap:

Is Weds a Fla Dry or wet season?

Tia'


Neither, it's wabbit season.
There are 9 palindromes in the post below, or above if your configured that way.

What is the 9th?

I see those high temperature maps of the Carib and I see bleached and dead coral reefs. Breaks my heart.
Quoting 601. SunnyDaysFla:

I see those high temperature maps of the Carib and I see bleached and dead coral reefs. Breaks my heart.
Yes.There is no doubt the reefs are taking a hit from this.
603. OKsky
Quoting 600. Patrap:

There are 9 palidromes in the post below, or above if your configured that way.

What is the 9th?




"did"
Dammit im mad
High pressure dominating the Atlantic



May 2016 was the warmest May on record for the earth, according to an analysis released Monday by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. The top three warmest Mays in NASA's dataset have all now occurred in the last three years.

The global temperature departure in May 2016 was 0.93 degrees Celsius above the 1951-1980 average. This beat the previous May record set in 2014 by 0.07 degrees Celsius. This also marks the eighth consecutive month in a row in NASA's dataset that the earth has recorded its warmest respective month on record.
Well last night was pretty rainy here in Southern Wisconsin. At my house we only got about 1.3 inches but over in Western Columbia and Dane counties they got up to 8 inches in spots. All because of a blob of rain that developed ahead of the main squall line. This blob basically impeded the squall line and actually started to rotate in a kind of weird fashion. Today we are supposed to get severe t-storms again. this time with a bit more spread out storms. There is a slight chance of a tornado.
Still trying to wrap my head about how a kid gets taken out at Disney world a fun park of all places by an alligator....wth is going on in Orlando.
Quoting 603. OKsky:



"did"
Dammit im mad


You get a A on this wu sponsored Observation improvement lesson.

My number 2 here also added the post time "11:11" so She gets a Fried Shrimp Po-boy for Lunch.
Quoting 600. Patrap:

There are 9 palindromes in the post below, or above if your configured that way.

What is the 9th?



6/11/16
A storm off the Atlantic Coast of the United States has the potential to become a tropical system and produce rough surf and downpours during Father's Day weekend- Accuweather
Meanwhile, it's summer in TX as the heat builds. Heat advisory's are out across the mid section and tropics heating up this weekend into next week in the Gulf. Talk already saying the ridge to the north will push whatever is in the BOC into MX.
From TMZ:
As we reported, the Disney resort has a sign saying NO SWIMMING, but no mention of alligators. The Hyatt went the extra step and warned of gators.
[snip]
We called several other nearby Disney resorts, and we were told there were no signs warning of alligators ... just that the waters were not for swimming.

It looks as if Disney potentially has opened itself up to a lawsuit.
In regards to rendering judgement on the parents . . . the father may have been right next to he child and would have been unable to do anything to prevent what happened. Given that he tried to pull his child from the alligator's mouth, he probably was extremely close.
Even if the child was walking on the shore adjacent to the water, it potentially could have happened.
Having grown up in Florida, I still get nervous swimming in lakes . . . even though I am just north of where alligators are typically found. Weird how that is hard-wired into my head . . .
Quoting 610. PedleyCA:


6/11/16


6/10/16 - it is a palindrome "week-and-a-half"
The rain just started in these parts (Tallahassee); very nice to get some PM rain cooled air after several days of temps in the 90's.....Bring it on and the more the better.

Southeast sector loop
620. elioe
Quoting 598. Patrap:



I will never understand the English way of timekeeping. Counting from smaller time unit to larger (dd/mm/yyyy) or from larger to smaller (yyyy/mm/dd) would make sense. But mm/dd/yyyy ? Nope.
In the Aviation and Met word, UTC is universal.
Quoting 606. Geoboy645:

Well last night was pretty rainy here in Southern Wisconsin. At my house we only got about 1.3 inches but over in Western Columbia and Dane counties they got up to 8 inches in spots. All because of a blob of rain that developed ahead of the main squall line. This blob basically impeded the squall line and actually started to rotate in a kind of weird fashion. Today we are supposed to get severe t-storms again. this time with a bit more spread out storms. There is a slight chance of a tornado.


We were under the very northern side of that blob of rain, I emptied 4.45" from the rain gauge this morning. NW Dane Co.
This potential tropical storm could be analogous to maybe Beryl in 2006. That would be my guess
Quoting 611. Climate175:


We just had a pretty bad thunderstorm here in Surf City, NC.
Quoting 617. daddyjames:

Having grown up in Florida, I still get nervous swimming in lakes . . . even though I am just north of where alligators are typically found. Weird how that is hard-wired into my head . . .

I grew up and still reside in Florida and I NEVER swim in any lakes here.
Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la
825 am CDT Wednesday Jun 15 2016

..sounding discussion...
The sounding this morning has still come in with precipitable water well above
average at 2.15 inches and ample instability with mixed layer
cape at 2100 j/kg. Still expect some storms to fire today along
local boundaries and especially to the east. Indications of
subsidence from the building ridge are beginning to show up a bit
with a broad low level warm layer to 750 mb. Winds are westerly
from the sfc to 700 mb then become northerly aloft from the
downstream side of the upper level ridge axis.

Krautmann

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 350 am CDT Wednesday Jun 15 2016/ 

Short term...
should see a fairly tight columnal moisture gradient develop today
from west to east. The Pearl River should be the line where sh/ts
will be capable of developing in the deeper moisture to the east.
Dry air through most of the column will keep most activity down
for areas west of the Pearl River. Although a few strongest
buoyant areas capable of breaking the two inversion caps will be
possible which is the reason for the 20% over the western majority
of the area. The caps strengthen as one moves westward. This
should continue to be the case for the most part through Friday.
The problem with this will be heat. Temps will rise appreciably
into the mid 90s. This will couple with the unventilated boundary
layer's moisture left over from the previous rainfall to cause
heat indices to soar into the 100s. The word stifling comes to
mind.

Long term...
the back door cold front will be moving rapidly toward the area by
frinight into Saturday. The front should move through the area
Saturday shifting winds from westerly to easterly at about 10-15
mph and dropping dp temps down from the mid 70s to the mid 60s.
This may not sound like much but it will be felt. And it will be a
nice change from the extremely moist hot temps we will be
experiencing. The strong forcing associated with moving the front
through the area will move through the Florida Panhandle and into the
Gulf first. Then the same forcing begins to move west and focuses
more toward this area. The front looks to be almost through the
area by the time the strongest forcing transitions to our area.
This would mean that severe weather would be confined to the Gulf
coastal waters instead of over land areas. But it is way too soon
to show that scenario and will keep current thinking of the
possibility of severe thunderstorms Saturday into Saturday
evening moving from east to west. This event will be further
refined as time nears. This synoptic pattern should also keep any
tropical activity in the Gulf away from this area for now.
Quoting 594. PedleyCA:


DOOM
naw its lenticular clouds air flow around the mountain does that
Quoting 620. elioe:



I will never understand the English way of timekeeping. Counting from smaller time unit to larger (dd/mm/yyyy) or from larger to smaller (yyyy/mm/dd) would make sense. But mm/dd/yyyy ? Nope.


It's not the English way, it's the American way. In the UK its 15/6/16 today, but my computer says it's 6/15/16. I thinks the Internet is determined to Americanise us (in the US, that would be Americanize).
Lenticular clouds (Altocumulus lenticularis) are stationary lens-shaped clouds that form in the troposphere, normally in perpendicular alignment to the wind direction. Lenticular clouds can be separated into altocumulus standing lenticularis (ACSL), stratocumulus standing lenticular (SCSL), and cirrocumulus standing lenticular (CCSL). Because of their shape, they have been offered as an explanation for some unidentified flying object (UFO) sightings.
Quoting 608. Patrap:



You get a A on this wu sponsored Observation improvement lesson.

My number 2 here also added the post time "11:11" so She gets a Fried Shrimp Po-boy for Lunch.

parkway is Killing me on Instagram right now! A little too far away up here. Sunny and storms rolled through Cent Ind already.
We got 1.25" of rain overnight. My cherries are ready for picking ten days early...but it's too hot and humid today, so maybe I'll have to work at night.
Quoting 632. MonsterTrough:


parkway is Killing me on Instagram right now! A little too far away up here. Sunny and storms rolled through Cent Ind already.


Heres a lil Home for yas.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave is expected to reach the Bay of Campeche over the
weekend. Significant development of system has become less likely
due to the interaction with land.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila
Quoting 632. MonsterTrough:


parkway is Killing me on Instagram right now! A little too far away up here. Sunny and storms rolled through Cent Ind already.




MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0931
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND...FAR SRN IL...WRN/CNTRL KY...WRN/MIDDLE
TN...SERN MO...FAR NERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 151705Z - 151830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...AND MAY POSE A RISK OF DMGG WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED HAIL.
A WATCH IS LIKELY WITHIN THE HOUR.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING FROM SRN IND SWWD INTO
SERN MO NEAR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER CONVECTION.
CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST HEATING HAS OCCURRED NEAR AND IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000
J/KG. INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH EWD EXTENT INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF
KY AND MIDDLE TN...DUE TO MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...A
VERY MOIST AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...CHARACTERIZED BY
MID-UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS AND PW VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES...AND
WITH CONTINUED FILTERED SUNSHINE AND GRADUAL HEATING...THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE FOR MAINTAINING
STRONG CONVECTION FARTHER EWD. ADDITIONALLY...AREA VWP DATA NOTES A
MODEST INCREASE IN MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS OCCURRED THIS MORNING.
CURRENT THINKING IS SEVERAL MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS
AND ISOLATED HAIL WILL EVOLVE FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY INTO THE LOWER
OH VALLEY...SPREADING ESEWD TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY AND CNTRL KY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. MORE RECENT RUNS OF THE ESRL AND NCEP HRRR SUGGEST
UPSCALE EVOLUTION INTO ONE OR TWO MCS/S IS ALSO POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE BY 18Z.

..ROGERS/GUYER.. 06/15/2016


ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON 38528761 38738686 39128558 39038496 38768462 37918527
36798661 35198811 35058874 35078985 35159042 35629056
36379020 36978997 37938842 38528761


Looks as if you just missed out on the action
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
638. elioe
Quoting 630. yonzabam:



It's not the English way, it's the American way. In the UK its 15/6/16 today, but my computer says it's 6/15/16. I thinks the Internet is determined to Americanise us (in the US, that would be Americanize).


Oh, I thought it was common for all English-speaking countries. Well, every day I learn something new :)
Mid-City has seen hell and high water and Parkway Tavern is a iconic part of the community there. We lived there from Late 2012 to 2015.



640. MahFL
Quoting 607. RitaEvac:

Still trying to wrap my head about how a kid gets taken out at Disney world a fun park of all places by an alligator....wth is going on in Orlando.


It was on one of the small beaches they have around the fresh water lagoon. The family from Nebraska likely did not know much about gators. They do have "no swimming" signs, but really they need "do not enter the water" signs. They likely thought they were at the coast but sadly weren't.