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Climate Signals and “Demystifying Climate Models”: Two Great New Resources

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 4:11 PM GMT on June 10, 2016

Whether it be in media coverage or in statements by politicians, the connections between our warming planet and extreme weather events are too often ignored or downplayed (or sometimes overplayed). Those who want to learn more about the global climate models that bolster our understanding of past, recent, and future change can face a seemingly impenetrable wall of jargon, formulas, and technical terms. Where can you quickly find the context to put a breaking weather event into a solid climate perspective, or to get a handle on how global climate models work? Two excellent resources are now available to meet both of these needs.

A new tool for connecting the dots between extreme events and climate change
Debuting in beta form last month, the Climate Signals website--created by the nonprofit organization Climate Nexus--offers a quick and handy way to explore the climate change elements that are most pertinent to a given extreme event. The site’s main page allows you to click on a U.S. map that shows ongoing, recent, and significant past events, including heat waves, floods, and other weather disasters as well as ecosystem shocks such as wildfire and high-latitude ice loss. Click on an event and you get a brief summary, together with a curated list of media reports and relevant research findings. Each event also features a schematic “tree” that shows the chain of physical and social processes running from greenhouse gases to the event. Some of the trees are richly branched; others have as little as a single connection. Rather than showing the relative strength of the various factors compared to each other, or to natural variability, the trees are intended simply to show which aspects of climate change are most relevant to a given event. There is a “dashed line” branch used for links that are not yet firmly supported by observations but are consistent with model projections.


Figure 1. The schematic “tree” used to show connections between increased greenhouse gas emissions from human activity (left) and the torrential rains and severe flooding that struck northern Louisiana and nearby areas in early March 2016. More than 20 inches of rain fell in a four-day period in some areas. The dashed line indicates a link that is found in modeling but not yet fully supported by observations. The site notes: “This diagram does not quantify the relative strength of each factor, nor does it illustrate the natural factors that often shape extreme events, including natural variability and regular circulation changes.” Image credit: Climate Signals.


For journalists, policy makers, or any other interested parties delving into such high-profile events as Hurricane Sandy or the multi-year California drought, Climate Signals will serve as a convenient and easy-to-navigate starting point. Peer-reviewed attribution studies--which are referenced throughout the Climate Signals site--are the place to dig deeper when researching how much a given facet of climate change may have influenced a particular extreme event. We also found that the Real Time Data page--which contains over 50 links to various websites on current extreme temperatures, rainfall, storms, drought, fire, sea level, insect activity, snow, and ice--is a fantastic resource for researching the real-time impacts of extreme weather. The Climate Signals team is now seeking feedback on its beta site. 



Ricky Rood has a book out!
As those of you who follow wunderground climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood know, Ricky has bravely forayed into the world of long-form publication with his first-ever book: Demystifying Climate Models: A Users Guide to Earth System Models. A free electronic version is available as well. First author Dr. Andrew Gettelman (a climate scientist and expert on aerosols and cloud microphysics who is based at NCAR, the National Center for Atmospheric Research) and Ricky have written a book aimed at scientists and engineers in fields such as ecosystems, water resources, and urban planning who need quantitative climate change information for decision-making. By understanding climate models and their uncertainties, the reader should become a more competent interpreter or translator of climate model output. Although the book delves into many aspects of how climate models work, it is not a technical manual: there are virtually no equations, and the writing is conversational and accessible.

The book is full of enlightening examples of the strengths and weaknesses of climate models. Here's one example from the chapter titled “Results of Current Models” that we found valuable: "There is no explicit law for how much precipitation will increase, but most model simulations indicate that the increase is about 2% per degree centigrade of warming. Precipitation is a classic case where some aspects of the impacts of climate change are well known, and some are much more uncertain. As noted briefly in Chap. 10, as the spatial scale of interest decreases, the large-scale constraints fall away, and potential model structural errors start to become larger. While models agree on the sign and even some of the magnitude of global trends, they do not agree on the magnitude (even the magnitude of global changes), and particularly on what happens in different regions."

Demystifying Climate Models does a tremendous job of filling the gap between highly technical textbooks and more superficial descriptions of climate modeling. Even better, anyone can download a PDF or ePub version at no cost via the book’s website. A hardcover print version is also available at a $59.99 list price, which is quite reasonable for a book of this quality and depth. The book’s production was partially supported by NCAR.

Quiet time in the tropics; a hot weekend ahead for the States
There are no tropical cyclones being tracked anywhere on Earth this morning, but there is plenty of heat around, with some impressive records being set in some far-flung locations. A new record in Greenland for the month of June was set on Thursday when the airport at Nuuk (Mittarfik Nuuk) soared to 24.7°C. Much of the central and eastern United States will be cooking this weekend, with temperatures soaring well above 90°F as far north as Minnesota and the Dakotas. We'll take a closer look at national and global heat next week. In the meantime, have a great weekend, and stay cool, everyone!

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

Climate Change Computer Modeling

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

"Heavily armed" man arrested near L.A. gay pride parade
Quoting 486. Skyepony:


The models have had this being the seed to what eventually comes off the Carolinas. Models had it on a roller coaster ride North first, maybe womp on Nebraska and South Dakota before turning more south and hitting the Atlantic off North Carolina or North of there. Doesn't seem to be sweeping as quick north as depicted, yet.


Fun to watch. That convection to it's southeast is enormous. Seems to be gravitating towards it...



503. beell
Quoting 486. Skyepony:


The models have had this being the seed to what eventually comes off the Carolinas. Models had it on a roller coaster ride North first, maybe womp on Nebraska and South Dakota before turning more south and hitting the Atlantic off North Carolina or North of there. Doesn't seem to be sweeping as quick north as depicted, yet.


Would have to disagree, Skye. The dying MCV over TX is not related to any feature off the east coast later this week.
504. IDTH
Quoting 487. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



It seems like the waters near the Bahamas are getting almost as hot if not hotter than the Gulf nowadays. Sure it isn't as deep, but I don't remember those water being that warm in the 2000's.
Quoting 500. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

interesting land swirl these things have also become more common over the last few years its occurred a few times before weird








These images are the little bits of what I call weather coffee. Keeps ya up looking lol
I can't even describe how I feel today. #orlandostrong
507. beell
The "Carolina's" feature originates as a piece of energy from the trough currently approaching northern Mexico.



This piece of shortwave energy goes on to climb up the western side of a building central US ridge, crest the ridge, the dive southeastward. It may bring a wind event or two as it crests the ridge and turns.

The models are in decent agreement until the feature approaches the coast.

Fairly easy to track on this loop as it turns NE out of NM and makes its journey across the US.


GFS 500 mb heights, winds

508. MahFL
Quoting 501. LargoFl:

"Heavily armed" man arrested near L.A. gay pride parade


That was actually last night, many many hours ago.
509. MahFL
Quoting 506. GeoffreyWPB:

Local news reporting nine more victims have passed. Hopefully they are wrong. I can't even describe how I feel today.


Maybe they were confused, apparently 9 died on the way to the hospital but all outlets I checked still say 50, though a lady on CNN did say 52, the CNN ticker still says 50.
Quoting 503. beell:



Would have to disagree, Skye. The dying MCV over TX is not related to any feature off the east coast next week.

GEOS-5, that energy eventually becomes part of it. It falls apart & meanders over the SouthEast and eventually gets caught up with the storm coming from the SouthWest (that goes way north and then off the coast). GEOS-5 never fully merges the two lows, between them inhibiting each other and how north it comes off the east coast, nothing much tropical looks to come out of what comes off the east coast there.

MCV is more a 500mb vort.. I can see what you mean looking at it on gfs 500vort. CMC looks like it moves the MCV into the Gulf of Mexico and puts it in the Big Bend instead of one from the Caribbean.

I could have been more clear in that. Several models showing storms, just not exactly the same ones, doing the same thing...
511. MahFL
Amazing..., CNN reports the gunman worked the metal detector at the Port St Lucie court house.
512. beell
Quoting 500. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

interesting land swirl these things have also become more common over the last few years its occurred a few times before weird








Are they occurring more often or are we watching the sat and radar loops more than we did 10 years ago? Or both?
:)
513. MahFL
With all this low shear, something has to pop ?

Quoting 482. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

interesting cloud structure over texas some afternoon cumulonimbus to the ne and se



Is that a mcv or just a small low or what?
Quoting 514. MrTornadochase:


Is that a mcv or just a small low or what?

It looks more mid-level 500mb vort here, so MCV.
516. MahFL
Quoting 514. MrTornadochase:


Is that a mcv or just a small low or what?


San Angelo NWS says MCV.
Quoting 511. MahFL:

Amazing..., CNN reports the gunman worked the metal detector at the Port St Lucie court house.


You never really know your neighbors. We must keep vigilant while protecting our rights. We need to find our balance.

Nice stuff.
519. bwi
Strong winds in the DC area this afternoon -- gusty to near 40mph since at least noon I think. Unusual for June I think. Looking forward to more normal temps this week after a sudden jump up to 96dF yesterday.
Quoting 509. MahFL:



Maybe they were confused, apparently 9 died on the way to the hospital but all outlets I checked still say 50, though a lady on CNN did say 52, the CNN ticker still says 50.


Indeed , today is very tragic for all of us in Florida. The most important thing is that we will come back stronger after this event.
Good times in the Mojave next weekend:



522. beell
Quoting 515. Skyepony:


It looks more mid-level 500mb vort here.


The RAP archive does show some existing mid-level (500mb) cyclonic turning prior to the formation of the MCV-so it did have a little help in the formation of the meso-low. Still, it's centered right under the big ridge and I think its survival is in doubt.
Quoting 512. beell:



Are they occurring more often or are we watching the sat and radar loops more than we did 10 years ago? Or both?
:)
maybe both who knows just seems that way even over lakes they pop up from time too time maybe its more watching I guess
524. Tcwx2
Of course just pointing out that it was similar. I probably shouldn't have brought up Sandy but I don't think things through.
Quoting 481. MrTornadochase:


Of course the difference is this system will be much weaker than Sandy probably only nuisance impacts like clouds, rain, and cool temperatures
Quoting 433. leofarnsworth:

Trying to do that but it takes a lot of scrolling to go past the AGW posts! Other people use links...
18z GFS still showing the 2 storms
"Danielle" weakens and "Earl" intensifies in the BOC and looks to be a strong T.S before crashing into Mexico.When was the last time we had the E storm in June?
Quoting 527. washingtonian115:

"Danielle" weakens and "Earl" intensifies in the BOC and looks to be a strong T.S before crashing into Mexico.When was the last time we had the E storm in June?


Never had a E in june but most models take earl or Danielle into the texas coastline I think it will change over time
The GFS has the 5th tropical storm prior to the record earliest formation of the 4th tropical storm. I wasn't expecting as long of a lull compared to others, but even my predicted lull (no storms until 1st week of July) may have been too long.
Sea breeze storms are running late today.
Quoting 527. washingtonian115:

"Danielle" weakens and "Earl" intensifies in the BOC and looks to be a strong T.S before crashing into Mexico.When was the last time we had the E storm in June?


Never. The earliest formation of the 5th tropical storm is Hurricane Emily in 2005, which developed on July 11.
This isn't tropical, but it would cause a great deal of damage to agricultural crops, especially corn, if it happens.

Quoting 531. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Never. The earliest formation of the 5th tropical storm is Hurricane Emily in 2005, which developed on July 11.
Only 26 more storms to break 2005's record!
Just a thought.

Please show discretion regarding the tragic events that unfolded in Orlando, Florida. Many members that actively participate on this blog, and many more that lurk and not comment, live in that region. As the names of those killed and injured are released, there is a distinct possibility that someone they know may be named.

My thoughts and prayers for the friends and family of those killed and wounded; the communities of both Orlando and Port St. Lucie; the family, friends, and ex-wife of the perpetrator; and for both the LGBT and Islamic communities.
The 12z ECMWF shows the system off the Mid-Atlantic Coastline being non-tropical in nature. Additionally, the ECMWF keeps the BOC system weak, however I'll point out that these systems tend to be small and ramp up quickly, something the ECMWF has always struggled to handle.
Quoting 531. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Never. The earliest formation of the 5th tropical storm is Hurricane Emily in 2005, which developed on July 11.
MJO is expected to be returning to the basin in July.I don't see how this will be a season with just 12 to 13 named storms if we get two others by next week.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
Quoting 535. CybrTeddy:

The 12z ECMWF shows the system off the Mid-Atlantic Coastline being non-tropical in nature. Additionally, the ECMWF keeps the BOC system weak, however I'll point out that these systems tend to be small and ramp up quickly, something the ECMWF has always struggled to handle.

There's been a lot of run-to-run variability with the system off the East Coast. Could be non-tropical, could be subtropical, could be tropical depending exactly on the setup.

For not having a storm in the Bay of Campeche, the Euro sure does look interesting down there.

Quoting 536. washingtonian115:

MJO is expected to be returning to the basin in July.I don't see how this will be a season with just 12 to 13 named storms if we get two others by next week.

I don't see it happening even if the forecast storms don't materialize. With climatological activity from here out, we'd still finish with 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. And I'm not so sure we'll be dealing with just climatological activity over the next few months.
540. beell
Quoting 535. CybrTeddy:

The 12z ECMWF shows the system off the Mid-Atlantic Coastline being non-tropical in nature. Additionally, the ECMWF keeps the BOC system weak, however I'll point out that these systems tend to be small and ramp up quickly, something the ECMWF has always struggled to handle.


Unless...something gets left behind after the trough lifts out.
ADDED: AKA "trough split".
Okay, this has been bothering me since Bonnie actually heightening after Colin. Now soaring out of control (not really) that we could be looking at in a week having both Danielle and Earl at the same time in June. How at this rate could the seasonal outlook of average from the NHC come to pass? I understand La Nina does not have the same effect on the Atlantic as El Nino does on the pacific (pure numbers). But a black and white look with even the Analogs from Tropical Tidbits(which makes me sounds smarter than I am lol), comparing those years that had a similar ocean temperature anomaly in both the Pacific and Atlantic to 2016 we find this. 1970 had ten storms (not all named). The C storm did not form until July 31st. 1973 had eight named storms, since there was two storms beginning with A, the third honorary C storm formed on August 18th. 1985 had eleven named storms with the C storm forming on August 9th. 1988 had twelve named storms with the C storm forming on August 21st. Then 2007 saw 15 named storms with the C storm forming on July 31st.

SO! even if we only were to cruise through Danielle by the end of June we are still WELL ahead of pace for the normal every other June seeing one named system. With this I personally think the range will be closer to upper teens for named systems.

This is my prediction, I raise you a good 4 on your total prediction of 10-16 National Hurricane Center.
Quoting 529. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The GFS has the 5th tropical storm prior to the record earliest formation of the 4th tropical storm. I wasn't expecting as long of a lull compared to others, but even my predicted lull (no storms until 1st week of July) may have been too long.


Don't think the fifth named storm will be quite like this, please don't prove me wrong mamma natty.



Quoting 536. washingtonian115:

MJO is expected to be returning to the basin in July.I don't see how this will be a season with just 12 to 13 named storms if we get two others by next week.


I don't want to get ahead of myself and I've brought it up before; I wonder if we hit that number by late September or October. MJO would likely be right around our secondary peak. We've had the bulk of last few seasons' ACE in October and with better conditions at play especially the Caribbean by then, especially with the La Nina transition as we move forward towards 2017, we could easily see 15 or so. I forget what my predictions were :/
Quoting 534. daddyjames:

Just a thought.

Please show discretion regarding the tragic events that unfolded in Orlando, Florida. Many members that actively participate on this blog, and many more that lurk and not comment, live in that region. As the names of those killed and injured are released, there is a distinct possibility that someone they know may be named.

My thoughts and prayers for the friends and family of those killed and wounded; the communities of both Orlando and Port St. Lucie; the family, friends, and ex-wife of the perpetrator; and for both the LGBT and Islamic communities.
Well spoken.
544. elioe
Seems this is now the worst case scenario regarding the predicted disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico.
545. IDTH
Quoting 536. washingtonian115:

MJO is expected to be returning to the basin in July.I don't see how this will be a season with just 12 to 13 named storms if we get two others by next week.

I had a feeling this could be one of those years, and that's why my prediction numbers were so high.

Stay safe this Hurricane Season everyone, I have a feeling this is gonna be a long one.
Quoting 544. elioe:

Seems this is now the worst case scenario regarding the predicted disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico.


If shear is low we could get a storm like Dolly 2008 or Alex 2010.
Quoting 542. win1gamegiantsplease:



Don't think the fifth named storm will be quite like this, please don't prove me wrong mamma natty.





I don't want to get ahead of myself and I've brought it up before; I wonder if we hit that number by late September or October. MJO would likely be right around our secondary peak. We've had the bulk of last few seasons' ACE in October and with better conditions at play especially the Caribbean by then, especially with the La Nina transition as we move forward towards 2017, we could easily see 15 or so. I forget what my predictions were :/

That would be: 2. 14-8-3 Win1gamegiantsplease
548. IDTH
On an interesting fascinating side of a possible busy hurricane Season, I'm always very interested in the work by Mark Sudduth from Hurricane Track. This would be quite interesting to see.


Quoting 544. elioe:

Seems this is now the worst case scenario regarding the predicted disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico.



talk about doom if that happen that would not be good with all the rain TX have been haveing last thing FL or TX need is a strong hurricane
550. Tcwx2
Only?? I think that we're within reach! (sarcasm) Prove me wrong Mother Nature!!!
Quoting 533. BaltimoreBrian:

Only 26 more storms to break 2005's record!
Quoting 526. Felix2007:

18z GFS still showing the 2 storms

June about to be poppin with these storms.

BOC system facing shear.

Quoting 532. BaltimoreBrian:

This isn't tropical, but it would cause a great deal of damage to agricultural crops, especially corn, if it happens.




Cold blast coming down. Been about 15F warmer here than the past couple of weeks as well.

Replica of Noah's Ark Is Damaged in Oslo Harbor Collision

"The 900-year-old captain has been detained." Grothar! You bad, bad boy!

Quoting 553. unknowncomic:


BOC system facing shear.



That shows an upper-level high--light shear atop the cyclone. Hence why it intensifies in the run.
558. beell
New convection initiating at the intersection of two outflow boundaries near Pueblo, CO, this evening. Hypnotizing.

Quoting 553. unknowncomic:


BOC system facing shear.




The relegation of the subtropical jet to the north suggests a split in the upper wind flow (relaxed shear). It has a small anticyclone so it would do well in that case, especially if it drifted into Mexico.

61.4F & 75.8 here today. What was your high Dakster?
Quoting 551. Climate175:

June about to be poppin with these storms.


Yep I saw this too...discuss both potential tropical systems for next week on my blog...
0z GFS still has the cyclone off the East Coast, now a week away. The vigorous tropical wave in the Bay of Campeche gets a little too involved with land.

BOC storm nowhere to be found
Quoting 563. Felix2007:

BOC storm nowhere to be found



yes its there its just a lot weaker in this run I think the next run might come out strong
Quoting 547. PedleyCA:


That would be: 2. 14-8-3 Win1gamegiantsplease


Ah Ok I remember 8 hurricanes but not the number of named storms and majors. My prediction was based off of my estimate of how long our strong El Nino influence would last in our basin and how much ACE our post-primary peak would obtain. I'm still of the belief late Sep-Oct could yield our most intense storm.

Quoting 455. daddyjames:



It does not come as a surprise that emphasis on his motivation may be placed differently depending upon the source. In all likelihood it is a blend of influences.
Would it matter if he was anti-gay then found reinforcement via ISIS propaganda, or he was a follower of the propaganda of ISIS and then became anti-gay?

Either way the outcome is just as tragic.


That is the one common denominator regardless of ideological affiliation for the majority of us: this was a senseless attack on innocent lives.
Quoting 560. PedleyCA:


61.4F & 75.8 here today. What was your high Dakster?


I for one actually never hit 97 today as your Saturday forecast predicts, got to 96.8. I guess close enough? Still a scorcher especially at 50% humidity but we had a fairly consistent breeze coming out of the SSW for the most part. At least I didn't get sunburned.
Quoting 560. PedleyCA:


61.4F & 75.8 here today. What was your high Dakster?


+68F - and we are supposed to have the warmest week of the year so far this coming week...

I never thought the Northeast US saw tropical storms in June...well, according to the GFS, they just might see one.
569. beell
At this point in time, WPC Forecaster Vojtesak not sold on the ability of a mid-level disturbance to persist all the way around the ridge to the mid-Atlantic coast this week.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
116 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2016

...WILL ASSUME THAT THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE MIGRATING ACROSS THE LOWER 48 WILL BE INFLUENTIAL IN THE PROPAGATION AND LIFE CYCLE OF THE 'BROAD MID-LEVEL EDDY' ROTATING CLOCKWISE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL US. THE 'DEGREE OF PHASING' WITHIN A PARTICULAR MODEL SOLUTION ---IE THE 12/12Z ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS...THE 12/06 DETERMINISTIC GFS AND 12/00Z DETERMINISTIC CANADIAN (AT/AROUND THE 19/00Z TIME FRAME) JUST EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA --- MAKE FOR AN INTRIGUING FORECAST AT DAY 6. DOES THE CYCLONIC FLOW PRODUCE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION TO TEMPER THE TEMPERATURE PATTERN ADVECTING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS? DO THE SERIES OF MCS-TYPE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THAT 'PEEL AWAY' FROM THE RIDGE HELP MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A BROAD 'EDDY'? EVEN INTO DAY 6-7?

HARD TO IMAGINE THIS FEATURE HAVING THE LONG-DURATION LIFE CYCLE THAT SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING. WHAT APPEARS TO START OUT AS ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE PLAINS--- BECOMES AN 'EDDY' TRAPPED BENEATH THE STRONG RIDGE BUILDING IN --- TO ITS NORTH AND WEST. THE FLOW ALOFT IS FLATTENING UPSTREAM (WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH TIME)---SO WHAT STARTS OUT AS A MCV-LIKE CIRCULATION INVOF SWRN NEB/NERN CO/SERN WYO...MAINTAINS ITS INTEGRITY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES--- AND 'DEEPENS' INTO A CLOSED H5 LOW (TO 564DM ACCORDING TO THE 12/12Z ECMWF) IN THE 'DAY6-7' TIME FRAME. EVEN THE DETERMINISTIC 12/12Z GFS SPINS UP A RATHER PRONOUNCED SURFACE LOW BENEATH THIS FEATURE. MY BEST GUESS IS THAT SUBSEQUENT PERIODS OF CONVECTION AND ATLANTIC INFLOW SOMEHOW 'FEED' THE SYSTEM THROUGH TIME.

VOJTESAK
plenty of tropical moisture setting up house near the s bahamas.
Good Morning. The Atlantic tropics quiet this morning and one invest in the E-Pac.

The story so for Conus has been a relatively quiet first-half of June in terms of the historical peak month for tornado season; however, some activity may bump up over the next two days for the upper Midwest. Below is the forecast for today and the convective outlooks for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Today's Forecast:

Tuesday:

Wednesday:


Quoting 571. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning. The Atlantic tropics quiet this morning and one invest in the E-Pac.

The story so for Conus has been a relatively quiet first-half of June in terms of the historical peak month for tornado season; however, some activity may bump up over the next two days for the upper Midwest. Below is the forecast for today and the convective outlooks for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Today's Forecast:

Tuesday:

Wednesday:





there are no invest in the E PAC at this time
Here is a chart from US Tornadoes for the peak periods for the regions under the gun this week; fits in nicely with the climatology as the season slowly migrates to the North of the US from the lower tier States:

central_to_northern_plains_tornado-alley_tornado_averages_by_month
Quoting 572. Tazmanian:



there are no invest in the E PAC at this time


Thanks; I was referring to the NHC "pre-invest" area; my apologies:

OFF TOPIC

I may get banned, I hope not. My best friends brother drove to Orlando to (party) last night. He was shot three times and is in critical but stable condition. If he lives he will be paralyzed from the hips down. Anyone that will pray for him and the other victims please do so. Off to Orlando.

Thank you
The entire Nation mourns the tragedy in Orlando and our deepest regrets and condolences to the people affected and our bloggers from that area as noted by Daddyjames earlier; wishing the best for your friend's Brother as well.
Quoting 574. weathermanwannabe:



Thanks; I was referring to the NHC "pre-invest" area; my apologies:




your welcome i noted the ch in that area went from 60% too 50% for the next five days so could this be other fail storm? love it i all so love it has we are up too june 13th now and still not a named storm in the E PAC too where by the end of june in 2014 we are all ready up too Elida by june 30th of that year and by last year at this time we are up to Carlos 2014 was the peak and 2015 was the 2nd peak

i still think the E PAC is still re covering from Hurricane Patricia has that storm took all the Atmospheric energy away for any thing else too fourm thats why we did not see many storms after Patricia so i still think the E PAC is still haveing side effects up too this day
with next week being the last full week of june


i do not see any named storms for the E Pacific. The E PAC hurricane season for june may end on a vary quite note

when was the last time that ever happen too where we gone may and june with out any named storm in the E PAC?
Quoting 575. Autistic2:

OFF TOPIC

I may get banned, I hope not. My best friends brother drove to Orlando to (party) last night. He was shot three times and is in critical but stable condition. If he lives he will be paralyzed from the hips down. Anyone that will pray for him and the other victims please do so. Off to Orlando.

Thank you

Prayers your way may the peace of Jesus Christ give him family and you comfort.God bless.
Good morning all.
NW Florida Gulf Coast is set for another very warm and humid day.. yesterday gave us a few afternoon towers inland and today that is supposed to increase, the cloud-shade will be nice since our 'real-feel' temps are in the low 100's. Precip is nice while it's happening, but once it moves on the 'sauna' gets turned way up.
Quoting 532. BaltimoreBrian:

This isn't tropical, but it would cause a great deal of damage to agricultural crops, especially corn, if it happens.


Oh that would be very bad. It would be 2008 v2. That area also doesn't drain the best. Heck even the 6 of so inches in the driftless area would be bad. GFS please fail spectacurly.
582. Tcwx2
Once again we were caught looking at the long range models. I'm going to stop looking at models past 120 hours.
Quoting 563. Felix2007:

BOC storm nowhere to be found

583. Tcwx2
I could watch that all day.
Quoting 558. beell:

New convection initiating at the intersection of two outflow boundaries near Pueblo, CO, this evening. Hypnotizing.


My God...Wednesday's heat index could top out at 104!

Quoting 582. Tcwx2:

Once again we were caught looking at the long range models. I'm going to stop looking at models past 120 hours.

Doesn't the GFS have a habit of dropping storms that eventually form, though?
Quoting 575. Autistic2:

OFF TOPIC

I may get banned, I hope not. My best friends brother drove to Orlando to (party) last night. He was shot three times and is in critical but stable condition. If he lives he will be paralyzed from the hips down. Anyone that will pray for him and the other victims please do so. Off to Orlando.

Thank you

yes prayers for him and the other victims
Quoting 576. weathermanwannabe:

The entire Nation mourns the tragedy in Orlando and our deepest regrets and condolences to the people affected and our bloggers from that area as noted by Daddyjames earlier; wishing the best for your friend's Brother as well.


Some of them are well known here and this is just a complete utter tragedy. Who would have thought something like this would have happened here.

BTW reason for all the Latin names being released is because it was Latin Night. This guy even called local news13 while with the hostages in the bathroom to say he is the shooter. Witnesses said he even called his friends and joking about what he did. Just unreal.
Quoting 586. LargoFl:

yes prayers for him and the other victims


That club is a very popular club and many go there no matter if they are gay or not. Very very sad. My wife and I were there before and I can only imagine the terror of this happening in that club for 3 hours. Just un imaginable.
Quoting 580. JNFlori30A:

Good morning all.
NW Florida Gulf Coast is set for another very warm and humid day.. yesterday gave us a few afternoon towers inland and today that is supposed to increase, the cloud-shade will be nice since our 'real-feel' temps are in the low 100's. Precip is nice while it's happening, but once it moves on the 'sauna' gets turned way up.


Daytime showers/storms are like throwing water on the stones of a sauna stove, aren't they
The reason why the second storm doesn't form is because of land entanglement and never gets over the water.The GFS actually had it forming in about 4 and a half days from now so not that long in model world
I can't believe the expected high heat indices coming up. Amazing that summer won't officially begin until June 20th.
Your daily hurricane propaganda map (sarcasm)

The GFS had the storm getting its act together before its date with Belize and the Yucatan.Not to hard to believe why.On the latest run it digs it to far deep into central america.
GEOS-5.. though it consolidates the energy coming off the east coast later this week, it's still sort of north and doesn't make much of it.

As for the Caribbean, what it was showing looks a little more land hindered and disorganized. Starts here, runs over west Cuba.


Has it traveling up well off the west side of Florida.


Into the FL Panhandle a week from today..
Off to the East in Africa, the wave patterns continues to look favorable. We should see some typical Cape Verde storm "clusters" of several storms over a several week period around September but it remains to be seen how the A-B high sets up in that time frame in terms of general trajectories and what trof pattern sets up then as well in terms of potential US impacts:




And finally noting that while SST's remain cool just off the Coast of Africa, the summer warming is starting just to the East of the Lesser Antilles as well as some pretty hot SST's in the Bahamas region again (like the record temps there last season in September); 







Quoting 581. Geoboy645:

Oh that would be very bad. It would be 2008 v2. That area also doesn't drain the best. Heck even the 6 of so inches in the driftless area would be bad. GFS please fail spectacurly.


I remember 2008 with that craziness over Wisconsin. It cut that state in half by taking out multiple I-94 bridges over otherwise nondescript rivers.

Not a nice model solution, go away please.
To darn quiet. I see at least three known disturbances tracking at the same time for this LULL if you will. Within the next 21-24 days. Stay tuned...
When does the next GFS come out anyway?
We Humans are the end result of 4.5 Billion years of Evolution and are the sentient beings in control of this Earth.

We should start acting like it.

Namaste
Quoting 592. washingtonian115:

Your daily hurricane propaganda map (sarcasm)

The GFS had the storm getting its act together before its date with Belize and the Yucatan.Not to hard to believe why.On the latest run it digs it to far deep into central america.

If a storm ever gets to or forms in The Caribbean and shear is light watch out because some of the Atlantics strongest form there with those high values.
Quoting 599. Patrap:

We Humans are the end result of 4.5 Billion years of Evolution and are the sentient beings in control of this Earth.

We should start acting like it.

Namaste
"....in control of this Earth"? IF we choose to be in control of anything, it is of our actions. Hopefully these actions will be in harmony with the planet and not harmful. Peace.
Well, last I checked the squirrels, Bears and Fish were not raising the Mean Global Temps by digging up and burning naturally sequestered Carbon in the ground to run the Global Human adventure.







One of the main reasons for species extinction on the Earth is due to the rapid destruction of natural habitats.
One example is the Trans-Amazonian Highway.
The Trans-Amazonian Highway: An Ecological Disaster

Link

Pretty good "dessication day" in the DC area sunday 6/12. After a hot humid saturday the front came through, winds picked up and dewpoints crashed. Late afternoon had temps in upper 80s, dewpoints in low 30s, and
20 knot winds, very strong for a summer month.
JapanSaturday, June 11, 05:56
Aircraft to be used for typhoon observation


Japanese researchers plan to start observing typhoons using aircraft next year, for the first time in about 30 years.

A research team consisting of members from Nagoya University, University of the Ryukyus and the Meteorological Research Institute will carry out the observation.

At present, data collected by weather satellites, such as the size and shape of clouds, are used to estimate the wind speed and atmospheric pressure of typhoons at sea and to forecast their course and intensity.

The accuracy of the forecast course has been improving, but the forecast of position 3 days later can be off by up to 200 kilometers, and the forecast of the intensity of typhoons has not shown any improvement.
Accurate forecasting has been especially difficult for stronger typhoons.

As part of the government-led research, the team will fly a civilian airplane that has been remodeled for observation close to a typhoon, and drop a device called a dropsonde into it. The probe collects data on the speed and direction of the wind, temperatures and humidity at different altitudes as the typhoon passes.

By observing the typhoon directly, it is expected to help forecast the course and intensity more accurately and reveal the mechanism that causes typhoons to develop.

Aircraft are used to observe typhoons in the United States and Taiwan. In Japan it was done just once as an experiment 8 years ago since continuous observation by the US military ended in 1987.

The new round of observations will take place between next year and 2020.

The research group says it wants to continue observations beyond 2020 to prepare for the arrival of so-called "super typhoons" with wind speeds of more than 216 kilometers per hour.

The leader of the research group, Professor Kazuhisa Tsuboki of Nagoya University, says accurate forecasting is essential in preparing for strong typhoons, which may require hundreds of thousands of people to evacuate.

He says his team wants to contribute to disaster prevention through the observations.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
The Euro and the GFS both bring a low off the east coast in about 100 hours and then loop the low back towards the east coast. The Euro turns the low to the north towards New England. The GFS turns the low to the south towards Florida.

It will be interesting to see what the 12z Euro shows.
May global temperature anomaly from NASA is just in, at 0.93 C above the 1951-80 average. This beats the previous record for May, 0.86 C set in 2014.

The first five months of 2016 have been the warmest first five months on record, at 1.15 C above the average. This obliterates the 2015 record for the first five months (0.82 C), by an incredible 0.33 C. That's equivalent to beating the record time for running a marathon by more than half an hour!

NASA table data
This is my prediction for the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane season, I am predicting 14 to 17 Tropical Storms to form, with 6-9 becoming hurricanes and 5 to 7 becoming major hurricanes.
611. vis0
PLEASE REPLY TO THIS ON THIS BLOGBYTE NOT A NEW ONE, better yet if you think the idea is good PASS IT ON .

i know its not wx related but i think if an idea can sabve your life (you are human) then its worth posting on any site.
 
A very simple (OLD) idea might save lives.
 
Build trap doors in the following manner.
 
Install long narrow entrance ways with 3 trap doors.
 
In this manner as soon as security is confronted they might try and shoot at the attacker but also trap doors are opened either by remote or is there are gun shot  sensor installed.  The inside opening of those long hallway also becomes automatically closed, exits remain open as the only way to enter are via the long hallways.
 
If sar2401 were still around on WxU, sar2401 might state (rightfully) that some might sue saying the trap doors opening via false shotgun senor  readings (as via certain fireworks).  But i think the lives saved will cause legal judgements to weigh on the side of safety.
 
These can be installed in schools entrances.  Every floor have 1 in the long hallways?, might be hard to accomplish since school hallways are wide an idea there is





 
My hope is that the area the trap door opens to is of course deep but also narrow so the the attacker cannot even shoot themselves (trouble is attackers come in all sizes and the only costly way to create a customized tight fit as with closing-in walls as in movies that needs $$ and more room for pistons, gears, motor FOR EACH trap door thus too costly.  But maybe some type of knock-out gas or some krazy glue like fluid sprayed that activates when it hits air / object and quickly solidifies so the person is awake but immobile.
 
Posted this after the shooting in Virginia tech but the blog it was posted on (European) closed a week later and i forgot, till just a few minutes ago.  i keep trying to think of a modern way of locking guns that are being fired but that's hard cause who would be in control of sending that "signal" so that is not a good idea, so maybe this idea can stop a few or even if a group attacks 2 or 3 people can be stopped as the trap doors are too long to be jumped, no rails to hold onto on either side of trap doors so only down can 2 or 3 people go.
 
With looong hallway entrances and a few trap doors
People are destroying our planet. My boyfriend is in Jacksonville FL and we meet in St. Augustine. We have a creek that runs through the back waters ( I'm a Fisher woman) and 2 weeks ago it was so clean and beautiful then yesterday we went back and talk about TRASH everywhere, all in and around the water. We cleaned up what we could on the bank but wow if you only saw what was out in the water... So sad because marine life is suffering there was so many birds, butterflies, squirrels, and fish but NONE this weekend at all. Our Eco system is being effected by so much already with industrial pollution then, The Navy dumps too much trash in the ocean, cutting of trees ( nature's oxygen) and here people throw trash on the ground or even on the bank in the water which storms pick up (Colin) and it goes right into the ocean. Don't be lazy.. Clean up after yourselves and help save our planet. I'm exhausted writing this but I am passionate about global warming and what we as humans can do to protect it. Goodnight world..