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A Moderate, Moist May across the Contiguous U.S.

By: Bob Henson 4:07 PM GMT on June 08, 2016

Like a nation pulled out of the fridge and briefly popped into a toaster oven, the contiguous United States was relatively cool on the inside and quite warm on the margins last month, according to the monthly U.S. climate roundup released on Wednesday by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). For the 48 states as a whole, it was a fairly moderate May, ranking as the 62nd coolest and 45th wettest in the past 122 years of recordkeeping. Temperatures reflected the influence of the fast-receding 2015-16 El Niño event, with relative coolness from the south central states into the mid-South and unusual warmth across the northern tier of states as well as California and Florida. None of the contiguous states had a top-ten coolest or warmest May, although Washington had its 11th warmest.


Figure 1. Statewide rankings for average temperature during May 2016, as compared to each May since 1895. Darker shades of orange indicate higher rankings for warmth, with 1 denoting the coldest month on record and 122 the warmest. Image credit: NOAA/NCEI.

A stunted temperature range for the Upper South and Mid-Atlantic
The month gets more interesting temperature-wise when you dig into the statewide average high and lows, where the general moistness of the atmosphere really plays out. Virginia is a striking example: the state’s average low temperature was the 38th mildest on record, but the average high temperature placed 7th coolest! The outcome was similar, if less dramatic, in neighboring states from South Carolina to Pennsylvania and New Jersey, all of which had cooler-than-average highs and warmer-than-average lows (see Figure 2 below).

It’s not surprising that Virginia led the pack in this tamped-down temperature range when you consider that the state had its 5th wettest May on record, as did Delaware (see Figure 3 below). Thick, low clouds are a surefire way to keep nights milder and days cooler, as they block sunlight by day and trap outgoing radiation from Earth at night that would otherwise cool the surface. The sogginess was reflected in Washington, D.C., with a stretch from April 27 to May 23 in which rain fell on 23 out of 27 days, the capstone to what Capital Weather Gang's Jason Samenow called "a truly lackluster spring." Many other U.S. states were wetter than average in May. The most noteworthy dry pocket was in Alabama and Mississippi, with relative dryness also prevailing from the Upper Midwest to New England.


Figure 2. Statewide rankings for average maximum temperature (left) and minimum temperature (right) during May 2016, with rankings depicted as in Figure 1 above. Image credit: NOAA/NCEI.


Figure 3. Statewide rankings for average precipitation during May 2016, as compared to each May since 1895. Darker shades of green indicate higher rankings for moisture, with 1 denoting the driest month on record and 122 the wettest. Image credit: NOAA/NCEI.


Figure 4. Average temperatures and long-term rankings for May 2016 in various communities across Alaska. Image credit: NWS/Alaska.

Alaska continues baking
After its warmest April on record, Alaska ended up with its second-warmest May, behind only the exceptional warmth of May 2015. At least five Alaskan communities had record monthly warmth in both April and May: Bethel, King Salmon, Kotzebue, St. Paul, and Talkeetna.

Still on track for a very warm U.S. year
Boosted by the influence of El Niño atop sharply rising global temperatures, the contiguous U.S. remains on track for what could be one of the warmest years in U.S. weather history. The January-to-May period came in fourth behind 2012, 2000, and 2006, with a departure from the long-term Jan-to-May average of an impressive 3.21°F. Some noteworthy June heat has already played out in the far West: Phoenix hit 115°F on Saturday, its earliest such reading on record. The heat will be building across much of the central and eastern U.S. as we head toward the first day of summer (which will be June 20 this year, but June 21 during the rest of the 2010s).

On the global scale, there’s an extremely good chance that 2016 will beat out 2015 as the warmest year on record. We’ll see where that distressing competition stands next week when NOAA releases its monthly global climate report on Friday, June 17, after similar reports from NASA and other temperature-tracking agencies.

I'll be back with a new post by midday Thursday.

Bob Henson

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 433. daddyjames:



From the very beginning, analyses of the observed data determined Colin was tropical (warm core] system while in the Gulf of mexico.

colin03l analysis and forecast cyclone phase evolution



Wind shear displacing the mid upper level convection from the low level center is a different mechanism than that generating the displacement of the convection from the center of a subtropical storm.


Shear wasn't the only mechanism pushing the convection from the center, if that were the case convection would still try to initiate over the center, or at least a lot closer, and then get pushed. There was never convection anywhere close to its center, or rather anywhere else besides to that one side.


Also as the thermal wind graphic shows, it was always in a weak to moderate temperate gradient,
"Like a nation pulled out of the fridge and briefly microwaved, the contiguous United States was relatively cool on the inside and quite warm on the margins last month"

That's such a great description.
Thanx for the update.
Thanks for the update, and for highlighting the fact it's probably gonna be the third year in a row that'll be classified as the hottest year ever... Leaves one thinking.
===
Role of quasiresonant planetary wave dynamics in recent boreal spring-to-autumn extreme events
Yeah, dig it...
Some famous names within the field of climatology involved in this research though.
German floods : a hundred years event ? Apparently that's what says German research (via S. Rahmstorf) :

Wiederkehrzeit : Return time (in years)
France and Germany Floods May - June 2016
"A warmer atmosphere can hold and dump more water. During the past 25 years, satellites have measured a 4 percent rise in atmospheric water vapor that is in line with the basic physics of a warming world and is consistent with the results of computer models simulating the current warming climate. Storms reach out and gather water vapor over regions that are 10-25 times as large as the precipitation area, thus multiplying the effect of increased atmospheric moisture. As water vapor condenses to form clouds and rain, the conversion releases heat that add buoyancy to the air and further fuels the storm. This increases the gathering of moisture into storm clouds and further intensifies precipitation." http://www.climatesignals.org/
Quoting 2. VAbeachhurricanes:

"Like a nation pulled out of the fridge and briefly microwaved, the contiguous United States was relatively cool on the inside and quite warm on the margins last month"

That's such a great description.


Thanks--but I just realized it's not quite right! A microwave oven would heat up the center before the edges. The better analogy is with a toaster oven. See revised lead.
Worse then the amount of rain in my area (Washington DC) in May was the duration of wet weather. Lots of mist fog drizzle sprinkles with small amounts of precip but much more the feel of maritime weather. Gusty, cool, and a bit unstable here today, continuing that feel, although we've had some nice sunny days too since Memorial Day weekend.
Thanks Bob!

Getting some midday drama in the Mid Atlantic right now. They're tougher than they look.
Quoting 4. 999Ai2016:

Thanks for the update, and for stressing out the fact it's probably gonna be the third year in a row that'll be classified as the hottest year ever... Leaves one thinking.
===
Role of quasiresonant planetary wave dynamics in recent boreal spring-to-autumn extreme events
Yeah, dig it...
...

The link didn't work. :(
Fig. 3 description talks about April, whereas the figure itself is about May.

Otherwise: thanks from the informative post!
Quoting 8. OKsky:

The link didn't work. :(
Fixed ! Sorry.
Quoting 9. elioe:

Fig. 3 description talks about April, whereas the figure itself is about May.

Otherwise: thanks from the informative post!


Fixed--thanks! I also added mention of the protracted wetness in the DC area, per bwi's comment.
Tropical storm Jose from 2011 assures me Colin was indeed a tropical storm. Jose topped out with a pressure of 1006mb. We had a major, one of the smallest in history, last year. When it was initiated as a hurricane, it in no way looked like one. Can't judge on looks alone, always a good moto for just about everything. I'm wondering if Mr. Henson is thinking June will continue the below average severe weather season.
Quoting 1. VAbeachhurricanes:



Shear wasn't the only mechanism pushing the convection from the center, if that were the case convection would still try to initiate over the center, or at least a lot closer, and then get pushed. There was never convection anywhere close to its center, or rather anywhere else besides to that one side.


Also as the thermal wind graphic shows, it was always in a weak to moderate temperate gradient,


Part of the challenge of analysing the "consensus" of the models is that they were often initiating, and then locking onto, different low level vortices associated with the overall circulation pattern.

Argue what you want. Visually it looked awful. Data-wise it easily fit the bill as a symmetric warm-core system while in the Gulf.

Had the overall LLC not be under 20-40 kts of sheer and the mid-level circulation been able to vertically stack, there would be no discussion on this matter.
"Moderate moist May"...... say that three times fast.....
Thank You for the Update. Whether related to overall warming or the current El Nino, we have been hitting the 90's here in many parts of North Florida recently with more forecast this week; more hot than usual for late-May and early-July. This summer looks to be a scorcher for many places in the US me thinks.



www.co2.earth
Atmospheric CO2

May 2016

407.70
parts per million (ppm)

Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii (NOAA-ESRL)

Preliminary data released June 6, 2016

{Muttering to myself} Is this the "real" Dr. Hensen . . . JK ;)
Thanks for the Updates Bob...
Going to have a Bumper crop of cherry tomatoes here as the rains have been plenty, Sunshine as well.

I planted 16 seeds and have 15 plants now, all 3 ft tall in 7 weeks.

Have the watermelon in now..and the eggplant soon too.

Luckily I have a Garage to break the downburst T storms winds on the N side and a 10 ft wooden fence to the south as well.

If we can avoid any spinners, looks like a great crop to come.

Thanks for the updates and in addition to Dr. Henson's post about Alaska baking it is also the earliest some of the creeks and rivers have started to crest from winter snow melt at potentially the earliest times on record too.
Anticyclone really enhancing convection off the Yucatan. Shear very low, there's some mid level spin off of Cuba, but I'm interested in the convection building off the Yucatan. Decent vorticity that has grown at the 500 and 800mb levels. Think this area will convection grow very similar to what we saw yesterday.
Colin was this. A Central American Gyre (tropical).
Colin was also a dingus.

Philippe P. Papin, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY
American Meteorological Society-March 31st, 2014
Quoting 23. beell:

Colin was this. A Central American Gyre (tropical).
Colin was also a dingus.

Philippe P. Papin, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY
American Meteorological Society-March 31st, 2014


Of course, you have to go ahead and throw a dingus into the mix to confuse things even more ;)

edit: the word argument may convey something other than the discussion we are having . . .
I've done a lot of searching, and I think I can say pretty confidently that Colin was the poorest-organized cyclone in the Atlantic in the satellite era.

And in terms of tropical storms, here are the current areas to keep an eye on and current global ssts; as we have recently seen, some of the hottest SST's, and land temperatures, on a global scale have been in the Indian Ocean and adjacent land areas. In terms of the Central Atlantic MDR, we should see some red start to filter North over the next two months (and particularly during breaks in the SAL coverage) to the North of the 10N mark to the West of the Cape Verde Islands as we near maximum equatorial heating, for the Northern Hemisphere waters in September:




Apologies for the double post.
Quoting 23. beell:

Colin was this. A Central American Gyre (tropical).
Colin was also a dingus.

Philippe P. Papin, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY
American Meteorological Society-March 31st, 2014


thanks beell for furhter edumacating me. All jokes aside, appreciate it greatly!
Will 2016 See More Atlantic Hurricanes? Scientists Disagree

Excerpts:

The theory is that the Atlantic cools and warms every 25 to 40 years, changing the African monsoon and easterly jet stream, air pressure over the ocean and levels of wind shear, Bell said. All of these can add or detract from the lifespans of hurricanes, which can have consequences from Newfoundland to Nicaragua.

The thing is, not everyone believes the AMO affects hurricanes that way.


From World War I until the 1970s and 1980s, there was a rise in sulfate aerosols, Emanuel said. Governments then enacted laws to clean the air, and the levels of those aerosols, which blocked the sun’s heat, began to drop rapidly.

Hurricane Drought

Without the reflective aerosols, the sun could beat down on the Atlantic, warming it and thereby touching off an increase in hurricanes, which thrive in hot water.

“So we think the hurricane drought was man-made,” Emanuel said.
Quoting 19. Patrap:

Going to have a Bumper crop of cherry tomatoes here as the rains have been plenty, Sunshine as well.

I planted 16 seeds and have 15 plants now, all 3 ft tall in 7 weeks.

Have the watermelon in now..and the eggplant soon too.

Luckily I have a Garage to break the downburst T storms winds on the N side and a 10 ft wooden fence to the south as well.

If we can avoid any spinners, looks like a great crop to come.


Quoting 22. Patrap:

Seems a Human Man wound up in a Fla Gators mouth.

Canes do that too.

Alligator trapped after being found with body in mouth, cops say
Polk County deputies investigate possible deadly gator attack

Posted: 4:38 PM, June 07, 2016
Updated: 11:23 AM, June 08, 2016



Hey Pat, better keep an eye on those watermelons!

Florida alligator caught stealing watermelon


In other "news" what are the TWC writers smoking?

It must be a REALLY slow day...
Bay Area Voters Approve Tax to Fix Marshes As Seas Rise
Climate Central, John Upton - June 8th, 2016 :
"Voters in the San Francisco Bay Area approved an unprecedented tax Tuesday to help fund an ambitious vision for restoring lost marshlands, handing electoral victory to shorebirds, crabs and advocates of a muddy strategy for adapting to rising seas."
Don't worry it's not a multi-billion dollars fund... Betting on natural defences against sea-level rise is cheaper than bleeding everyone's budget in a sand, steel and concrete walls spending frenzy.
===
Overfishing and Pollution Kill Corals in a Warming World
Climate Central, John Upton - June 7th, 2016.
"In the wild worlds of coral reefs, seaweeds and corals are locked in mortal battles and scientists have revealed how overfishing, sewage and farm pollution can tip the balance in favor of the weeds.
Newly published findings from three years of field experiments in the ailing reefs of the Florida Keys have profound implications at a time when climate change is killing corals and threatening the very future of reefs worldwide."
No 12Z guidance was posted for 91E





The intersection with regard to how warming global SST's will-may impact some of the well established science of the post-1950's era with regard to tropical storms (AMO, PDO, Enso cycle, etc) in all the major basins (Atlantic, Pacific, Indian Ocean) will be a hot tropic of research, and many papers (publish or perish), in the coming decades.........I suppose adding aerosols into the mix is just another example..........................
Area near Cuba on the NHC site.
Quoting 14. NRAamy:

"Moderate moist May"...... say that three times fast.....


That just sounds dirty. . . wrong.
Quoting 19. Patrap:

Going to have a Bumper crop of cherry tomatoes here as the rains have been plenty, Sunshine as well.

I planted 16 seeds and have 15 plants now, all 3 ft tall in 7 weeks.

Have the watermelon in now..and the eggplant soon too.

Luckily I have a Garage to break the downburst T storms winds on the N side and a 10 ft wooden fence to the south as well.

If we can avoid any spinners, looks like a great crop to come.




Tomatoes are very late in the DC area this year and my largest is only golf ball size. Largest watermelon plants are 6" but they're getting ready to grow very fast now. Broccoli and lettuce and green onions and peas and collards are my only current production.. corn starts the week of the 20'th and tomatoes, probably not till after July 4 which is an embarrassment here. My friend in Minneapolis may beat me to table with tomatoes this year.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 081726
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disturbed weather extending from near western Cuba to the southern
Florida Peninsula is associated with a weak trough. This system is
expected to move northeastward and eastward over the next couple of
days, and significant development is not anticipated. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains are likely over portions of
western Cuba, the Florida Keys, the Florida Peninsula, and the
western Bahamas through Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch
Yellow X in the Gulf, best board up ya'll.
For the conspiracy theorists, "lets give them something to talk about"..........................

Quoting 33. Patrap:

No 12Z guidance was posted for 91E








Shear makes it look like it's almost rotating clockwise.
Quoting 39. MahFL:

Yellow X in the Gulf, best board up ya'll.


I'm getting ready for those dangerous h2o particles coming in a 45 degree angles!
Could we see the D-name storm before June 11th? We'll have to wait and see what happens.
It's been raining on and off all day here in south Fort Myers. Long moisture train moving across the southern half of Florida.
Quoting 33. Patrap:

No 12Z guidance was posted for 91E








Does this have a chance of Heading into the gulf and reforming?
Quoting 45. Famoguy1234:



Does this have a chance of Heading into the gulf and reforming?



Possibly, depending on how much wind shear there is .
Quoting 40. weathermanwannabe:

For the conspiracy theorists, "lets give them something to talk about"..........................




Man, just as I was getting geared up to do the dishes . . . . catch you all later in the day. Have a good one.
It's forming in the same region where COllin formed.THe models are putting it more South this time, LOL
Quoting 42. ElConando:



I'm getting ready for those dangerous h2o particles coming in a 45 degree angles!


The ones that come in crystalline form bound to a few bazillion other h20 molecules and crush gardens and destroy roofs are the ones I worry about. Hail scars on local vegetation from our 5/2 storm will last for years; big divots taken out of growth that wasn't severed. No roof or car damage this time though.
Quoting 48. birdsrock2016:

It's forming in the same region where COllin formed.THe models are putting it more South this time, LOL


I don't see any of the models developing this feature. Which ones are you indicating are developing this?
Quoting 43. birdsrock2016:

Could we see the D-name storm before June 11th? We'll have to wait and see what happens.


Personally, I do not see that happening.
Quoting 52. rmbjoe1954:



I don't see any of the models developing this feature. Which ones are you indicating are developing this?


The path that the NHC is predicting for the disturbance in the GOM. I'm sorry I said models, I meant to say the NHC path.
Quoting 54. birdsrock2016:



The path that the NHC is predicting for the disturbance in the GOM. I'm sorry I said models, I meant to say the NHC path.


If the ingredients come together than perhaps models would have something to latch onto. It's a low chance for now.
Bye all, I have to get to work now. Will talk to you guys later.
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 19h19 hours ago Walnut Creek, CA
By 6/7/2015, the N. Pacific had 6 Cat. 4-5 hurricanes. The N. Pacific has only had one hurricane this year (Pali).
Pretty strong rain band came in recently in downtown Miami. Strong wind gusts around 40 mph and sideways rain.
Quoting 57. washingtonian115:

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 19h19 hours ago Walnut Creek, CA
By 6/7/2015, the N. Pacific had 6 Cat. 4-5 hurricanes. The N. Pacific has only had one hurricane this year (Pali).


Looks like an active ATL season instead. Weird how that works.
Quoting 52. rmbjoe1954:



I don't see any of the models developing this feature. Which ones are you indicating are developing this?

Right now, the GFS, Euro, CMC and NAVGEM all develop this feature off of the Florida East coast.
Quoting 31. Articuno:

In other "news" what are the TWC writers smoking?

It must be a REALLY slow day...

What are my fellow Floridians smoking... SMH
Quoting 60. Dakster:



Looks like an active ATL season instead. Weird how that works.
The same thing happened in 2010.The north pacific was very active in 2009 when the el nino was ongoing and then when la nina came around the two basins were virtually shut down for the most part.
Quoting 61. gator23:


Right now, the GFS, Euro, CMC and NAVGEM all develop this feature off of the Florida East coast.
I think if it is going to become anything it'll do so on the Atlantic side of Florida.Maybe a brief spin up.
If this AOI is anything it will be a short-lived TD 4. Most likely nothing but if it does form it's extremely unlikely it will become Danielle.


Keep on eye on this folks.
Quoting 61. gator23:


Right now, the GFS, Euro, CMC and NAVGEM all develop this feature off of the Florida East coast.

The ECMWF has a 1012mb disturbance with one loosely-closed isobar. Not a tropical cyclone.
The GFS has a 1014mb disturbance with two loosely-closed isobars. Not a tropical cyclone.
The CMC has a 1014mb disturbance with two closed isobars. Not a tropical cyclone.
The NAVGEM has a 1014mb disturbance with two closed isobars. Not a tropical cyclone.
Quoting 25. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I've done a lot of searching, and I think I can say pretty confidently that Colin was the poorest-organized cyclone in the Atlantic in the satellite era.




Completely agree with this.
Florida State model gen. product demonstrating that the models aren't really into developing the Cuba/Florida disturbance at this time. Makes sense given the low probabilities.

Big storm just came thru Fort Lauderdale. Gusty winds to maybe 35 mph and heavy rain, and lots of lightning.
USPS just delivered my first weather radio, a NOAA All Hazards with SAME functionality. I set it up and entered my county's code. The Ft. Pierce NOAA transmitter is 14 miles from my house and comes in clearly on WX 2. A flood watch was issued this morning that remains in effect until 8 this evening. WX 2 out of Ft. Pierce mentions it on their voice loop. The radio is not showing an alert for the Flood Watch. Every setting has been checked and every possible advisory/alert/watch/warning is enabled. The siren test is loud and clear.

The radio could not have received the initial alert this morning because it wasn't here. Do the NOAA broadcasts repeat the transmission of SAME alerts periodically? Or does a radio need to be in position when the first alert is broadcast because it's a one-time deal? I've searched the internet for some kind of answer, including the NOAA and NHC websites, but couldn't find anything. Can anyone here shed some light on the situation?

I suppose it's also possible that the radio is defective. Apologies in advance if this is considered off-topic but I can think of no better place to ask.
Quoting 25. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I've done a lot of searching, and I think I can say pretty confidently that Colin was the poorest-organized cyclone in the Atlantic in the satellite era.




was Colin even a storm at all?
That mid-level trof with the embedded moisture will most likely not develop but bring some rains to the SE FL coast that Colin did not produce in large amounts for that region; the West Coast and North/NE Florida got the brunt of the rain with Colin and it looks like this disturbance is going to stay to in the South half of Florida:







How is how does hot and dry and wet and cool mean a "temperate" May? Evidently you must be focusing on the Rust Belt and Piedmont areas and not areas like the Pacific Northwest. We had one of the warmest months on record here in Washington and below average rainfall (but with torrential rain moments]. Even across the river in Oregon, records fell over the heats.

Both states had the earliest 90F degree days on record.

Far from temperate.
NOAA's May AMO index is in at 0.359. This is the highest May value since 2010, which came in at 0.474, and 1998 before that (0.396).
Quoting 71. UrcaDeLima:

USPS just delivered my first weather radio, a NOAA All Hazards with SAME functionality. I set it up and entered my county's code. The Ft. Pierce NOAA transmitter is 14 miles from my house and comes in clearly on WX 2. A flood watch was issued this morning that remains in effect until 8 this evening. WX 2 out of Ft. Pierce mentions it on their voice loop. The radio is not showing an alert for the Flood Watch. Every setting has been checked and every possible advisory/alert/watch/warning is enabled. The siren test is loud and clear.

The radio could not have received the initial alert this morning because it wasn't here. Do the NOAA broadcasts repeat the transmission of SAME alerts periodically? Or does a radio need to be in position when the first alert is broadcast because it's a one-time deal? I've searched the internet for some kind of answer, including the NOAA and NHC websites, but couldn't find anything. Can anyone here shed some light on the situation?

I suppose it's also possible that the radio is defective. Apologies in advance if this is considered off-topic but I can think of no better place to ask.


Same for my area. The radio will not go off of Flood statements (except Flash Flood Warnings), Wind advisories (except High Wind Warnings), and Winter Storm advisories (except for Blizzard Warnings).

It depends on what your area believes is most hazardous to sent an alert to the radio.
Quoting 67. TropicalAnalystwx13:


The ECMWF has a 1012mb disturbance with one loosely-closed isobar. Not a tropical cyclone.
The GFS has a 1014mb disturbance with two loosely-closed isobars. Not a tropical cyclone.
The CMC has a 1014mb disturbance with two closed isobars. Not a tropical cyclone.
The NAVGEM has a 1014mb disturbance with two closed isobars. Not a tropical cyclone.

I was just answering the question "Which ones are you indicating are developing this?" I never said it would be a tropical cyclone.
Quoting 74. baraktorvan:

How is how does hot and dry and wet and cool mean a "temperate" May? Evidently you must be focusing on the Rust Belt and Piedmont areas and not areas like the Pacific Northwest. We had one of the warmest months on record here in Washington and below average rainfall (but with torrential rain moments]. Even across the river in Oregon, records fell over the heats.

Both states had the earliest 90F degree days on record.

Far from temperate.


"For the 48 states as a whole, it was a fairly moderate May, ranking as the 62nd coolest and 45th wettest in the past 122 years of recordkeeping." The focus was on the contiguous 48 states, not any one region.
Quoting 72. Tazmanian:



was Colin even a storm at all?


Yes, as poorly organized and ill shaped as it was, it met the minimum criteria for a storm. It closed off (west winds) with a minimum wind speed of 39mph.
Quoting 72. Tazmanian:



was Colin even a storm at all?

It's hard to defend. It had a closed low, but that low was very elongated and broad. Convection certainly was never remotely organized.
Quoting 72. Tazmanian:



was Colin even a storm at all?


We had a discussion this morning about this in the previous blog. Anyone interested should go back and read the comments mentioned about that topic. There were some interesting comments.
You know we've had a long string of bummer seasons when the blog is getting jacked over a possible TD forming and hitting Florida, in June.
Quoting 72. Tazmanian:



was Colin even a storm at all?


Yes, the NHC says it was. A Tropical Cyclone is whatever the NHC says is one. I have never seen them "take back" a named storm.
Quoting 61. gator23:


Right now, the GFS, Euro, CMC and NAVGEM all develop this feature off of the Florida East coast.


Look at post #69. It says the complete oposite. Okay, who's right?
Convective

Organization

Looked

Intimidating

....Not


Quoting 83. nrtiwlnvragn:



Yes, the NHC says it was. A Tropical Cyclone is whatever the NHC says is one. I have never seen them "take back" a named storm.

The question isn't whether its name should be revoked, it's whether Colin should have been designated in the first place. Based on my interpretation of the definition of a tropical cyclone, I would say no. There's an amount of subjectivity to "organized" and "well-defined," but only to a certain degree.
Quoting 43. birdsrock2016:

Could we see the D-name storm before June 11th? We'll have to wait and see what happens.

The target date is June 22. Debby in 2012 was named on June 23.
Anyone remember a few years ago when that supposed storm whacked Florida and was not named? The public went mad and had a out cry.
Quoting 87. TropicalAnalystwx13:


The question isn't whether its name should be revoked, it's whether Colin should have been designated in the first place. Based on my interpretation of the definition of a tropical cyclone, I would say no. There's an amount of subjectivity to "organized," and "well-defined," but only to a certain degree.


It met the hurricane specialist on duty's criteria for "organized" and "well-defined". It will go down in the record books as a tropical cyclone. Wiki may have an asteric besides it with a note at the bottom *TropicalAnalystwx13 and others do not agree this was a tropical cyclone :)
91. 7544
Quoting 66. Terri2003:



Keep on eye on this folks.


hmmmmm but not surpised that area has been blowing up at night hours lets see what hapeens again tonight
Quoting 66. Terri2003:



Keep on eye on this folks.


Which eye, as I have two of them.
i wounder what Bob Henson has too say about this dos he think that Colin was even a storm at all and dos he think that it should have been designated in the first place i would love to here what he thinks about this topic we are haveing
Gonna head home but wishing everyone a safe weather afternoon. That AOI near Cuba/Florida does not have much going for it in terms of tropical development and still under the influence of the big Tutt cell on the NE US coast; I would not expect much from it but I am sure that many of the farmers in extreme South Florida (and the Redlands come to mind) are grateful for the rain. See Yall tomorrow.




Quoting 87. TropicalAnalystwx13:


The question isn't whether its name should be revoked, it's whether Colin should have been designated in the first place. Based on my interpretation of the definition of a tropical cyclone, I would say no. There's an amount of subjectivity to "organized" and "well-defined," but only to a certain degree.


Discussion 1 says "the circulation has become sufficiently well defined." Then they come right back in discussion 3 saying "Colin remains not very well organized." Seems to contradict themselves. Anyway, it was closed yet ill defined with 39mph winds. #colin
96. vis0

Quoting 5. BobHenson:



Thanks--but I just realized it's not quite right! A microwave oven would heat up the center before the edges. The better analogy is with a toaster oven. See revised lead.
[levity]ok, just let go of my "echo"[levity]
It should've been an invest with 50mph winds in my opinion but oh well it doesn't care if it's an invest or named Colin it'll do the same thing.
Quoting 95. Bucsboltsfan:



Discussion 1 says "the circulation has become sufficiently well defined." Then they come right back in discussion 3 saying "Colin remains not very well organized." Seems to contradict themselves. Anyway, it was closed yet ill defined with 39mph winds. #colin
Quoting 92. HurriHistory:



Which eye, as I have two of them.


I'd keep both of them on it...
Quoting 98. Tcwx2:

No offense but you need some spelling lessons.


dont start trouble for other bloger
Quoting 93. Tazmanian:

i wounder what Bob Henson has too say about this dos he think that Colin was even a storm at all and dos he think that it should have been designated in the first place i would love to here what he thinks about this topic we are haveing

Good evening Taz. When do you think ex-Colin will begin it's transition into a haboob?
102. vis0

Quoting 72. Tazmanian:



was Colin even a storm at all?
Do you mean TS?

Officially the HH found the criteria.

As for "looks" , sure it was not the classic "spin"  you see more often in the Pac.  With the chemistry of the atmosphere changing things might be a bit out of whack and it shows up in areas of weather where if things are not just right nothing else falls into the correct place. (i.e. stacking vs wobbling pillars of energy)

Taz i hear Dakster has a vis0 terminology dictionary and if you turn that book right side up it explains the process of compost.
103. Tcwx2
Just kidding around sorry though.
Quoting 100. Tazmanian:



dont start trouble for other bloger
Quoting 101. Llamaluvr:


Good evening Taz. When do you think ex-Colin will begin it's transition into a haboob?


what are you even talking about?
TA13 certainly leads credibility to this argument, I see many agree. Colin was warm cored and all models had this as a tropical storm, and Colin did exactly as models suggested. There was a center, albeit hard to find at times, but lowest pressure was there per HH's. Center had zero convection pretty much it's whole life, but we've seen that before. The banding that came through was certainly typical of a tropical storm, few spin ups and tropical rain. Had the surge but very limited TS force winds. If the NHC were wrong, then so were all the reliable models. Think it comes down to was there ever really a defined center at any point. HH's found it, but on satellite it was never really recognizable.
Quoting 76. HadesGodWyvern:
Same for my area. The radio will not go off of Flood statements (except Flash Flood Warnings), Wind advisories (except High Wind Warnings), and Winter Storm advisories (except for Blizzard Warnings).

It depends on what your area believes is most hazardous to sent an alert to the radio.
Huh. Well, it did just go off for the Weekly Test, so I guess it is working. It's troubling that some alerts are apparently more equal than others. That implies that there's a layer of discretion between the issuance of alerts and the actual broadcasting of them.

It's not like there are dozens of codes they can use or anything (/ sarcasm).

Coincidentally, the local WX guy on TV right now is highlighting the potential for flooding in the county later on tonight. Maybe I'll shoot off an email to the NWS guys in Melbourne to ask for some clarification. The whole situation does not give me peace of mind which is why I bought the damn thing in the first place.

What's worse is that the MLB transmitter is a little over 50 miles away and the radio does not pull in that signal at all, which is to be expected I guess given the published range of about 40 miles. The problem is the Ft. Pierce station does not issue alerts for Brevard County just to the north and more than once severe weather has approached from that direction. It's literally impossible to get any advanced warning of that by using a NOAA alert radio. Maybe I'll have to look into getting an external antenna.
Quoting 101. Llamaluvr:


Good evening Taz. When do you think ex-Colin will begin it's transition into a haboob?


Don't you mean habibi?
109. elioe
What an evening, what a night. So far, the west coast of Finland has seen peak winds of 51 mph (10 min sustained), gusting to 65 mph. 6000 households without power. Some places in Lapland have seen more than 30 mm of precipitation already, totals possibly going to exceed 50 mm. Some places are already seeing the precipitation turning into snow.

I personally don't believe Colin was ever a tropical cyclone. It's a case where either way, the impacts are the same, but I don't think the circulation was ever organized enough to classify. IMO, they jumped the gun issuing an advisory before recon investigated, and once the first flight, and subsequent ones, showed the total lack of organization, they couldn't just take it back. Again though, it's a matter of meteorological precision- it's behavior was very much like that of a typical sheared June tropical storm.
Quoting 108. NRAamy:



Don't you mean habibi?
I was pretty sure Taz said haboob. It seems like a meteorological long shot to me, but I know he is very smart and that he knows his stuff.
That was this?

Ver Video:

Link
Could be too the NHC had such great model consensus that they felt safe classifying Colin when they did. Didn't all the reliable models show a closed tropical storm?
Quoting 110. MAweatherboy1:

I personally don't believe Colin was ever a tropical cyclone. It's a case where either way, the impacts are the same, but I don't think the circulation was ever organized enough to classify. IMO, they jumped the gun issuing an advisory before recon investigated, and once the first flight, and subsequent ones, showed the total lack of organization, they couldn't just take it back. Again though, it's a matter of meteorological precision- it's behavior was very much like that of a typical sheared June tropical storm.

I disagree, there was a really nice rapidscat. It had a nice closed center and was firing from the center long enough before it went more sub-tropical like.. There was maybe three or four vortex messages too.
Quoting 107. Llamaluvr:

Didn't you say earlier that ex-Colin was beginning to take on the characteristics of a cold-core haboob?



No i did not say any thing like that
There is an interesting video doc on youtube about climate change, published last September. It is 2 hours and 40 minutes long, all substance, no fluff, and acccessible to non-scientists with just average intelligence. If any of you professional weather guys would like to critique it, that would be great!

Methane Monster II ~ Demise of the Arctic Link

She seems fairly conservative, and she seems to think that there may be some hope, though as I read into what she has to say, I wonder how that could be. She doesn't talk much about the notion of 'abrupt climate change'.

This fellow does (42 minutes):

Published on May 20, 2016
Guy McPherson presents “Responding to Abrupt Climate Change” in Encinitas, CA. May 17, 2016. McPherson is an award-winning Professor Emeritus of Natural Resources, Ecology & Evolutionary Biology at the University of Arizona. McPherson answers questions from the audience. Video recording and edits by Dwain Deets. Link

...and I am wondering what you all might make of that.
never mind this going too cause even more of a isssue this moveing on
Quoting 114. Skyepony:


I disagree, there was a really nice rapidscat. It had a nice closed center and was firing from the center long enough before it went more sub-tropical like.. There was maybe three or four vortex messages too.

Could well be; I hadn't seen a rapidscat of the storm. Not trying to be overly critical of the NHC; I actually like that they named it to provide earlier, more effective, impact based warnings. Easier to produce products for a named TS as opposed to something that's not a TS but acts just like one.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of disturbed weather extending from western Cuba across the
southern Florida Peninsula and into the western Bahamas is
associated with a weak surface trough. This system is expected to
move northeastward and eastward over the next day or so, and
significant development is not anticipated. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains are likely over portions of western
Cuba, the Florida Keys, the Florida Peninsula, and the western
Bahamas through Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Quoting 119. MAweatherboy1:


Could well be; I hadn't seen a rapidscat of the storm. Not trying to be overly critical of the NHC; I actually like that they named it to provide earlier, more effective, impact based warnings. Easier to produce products for a named TS as opposed to something that's not a TS but acts just like one.


Exactly! Now that opens the door to detractors who will unfairly criticize the criteria the NHC uses. I don't mean anyone here, lot of very valid questions about Colin. Does beg to question what "exactly" a tropical storm is. So based on the great info Skyepony gave, early in it's life, Colin was a ts. If Colin then transitioned before Florida, should it have been reclassified as subtropical storm Colin? Would the correct name supersede the public's possible reaction to it?
Quoting 108. NRAamy:



Don't you mean habibi?


I dont think he said حبيبي

But I agree with Taz - this is going on for too long. Not worth it to continue.

Anyone think that the area of concern is going to amount to anything tropical. Even to the extend Colin was or wasn't?

123. JRRP7
Vorticity and convection have been stagnant with the AOI all day.
Think we either get a convection explosion over night and an increase in percentages or this goes to 0% by tomorrow.
Quoting 121. DeepSeaRising:



Exactly! Now that opens the door to detractors who will unfairly criticize the criteria the NHC uses. I don't mean anyone here, lot of very valid questions about Colin. Does beg to question what "exactly" a tropical storm is. So based on the great info Skyepony gave, early in it's life, Colin was a ts. If Colin then transitioned before Florida, should it have been reclassified as subtropical storm Colin? Would the correct name supersede the public's possible reaction to it?
I think the dead horse is reduced to a broken-up skeleton. Be unrecognizable soon. :-)
The NHC designated Colin a storm and that settles it. However I would not have argued if the NHC had designated Colin a sub-tropical storm.
Maybe some daytime thunderstorm juice from off the Yucatan can get sucked into to the mix and get some more energy introduced. Conditions are ideal, just needs the right trigger.

LOL, let's just focus on the current disturbance that is dumping SOuth FLorida with rain today.
That rapidscat would have been one to screenshot. Hot linked it then (#33). The image looks broken now..

It was four vortex messages.. We don't get vortex messages unless the low is closed.




#49 has the phase analysis and my contemplation on reclassifying it at the time. It really is more important that the general public gets an easy clear warning on weather, that is what they are paying for. The weather geeks can wait til the post season analysis to pour over it from a meteorological perspective what an oddity it was.

Colin surge..
Just to clear up some confusion on the blog that I've seen a lot this year...

Just because a storm's maximum winds are more removed from its center than is typical for a normal tropical storm does not make it subtropical. Subtropical storms are shallow, asymmetric warm cores that typically derive their energy from being underneath upper-level troughs/lows.

Colin was a symmetric warm core, and it was not positioned underneath an upper-level trough. The strongest winds were far removed from the center because the convection was displaced east due to strong wind shear.
Quoting 131. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Just to clear up some confusion on the blog that I've seen a lot this year...

Just because a storm's maximum winds are more removed from its center than is typical for a normal tropical storm does not make it subtropical. Subtropical storms are shallow, asymmetric warm cores that typically derive their energy from being underneath upper-level troughs/lows.

Colin was a symmetric warm core, and it was not positioned underneath an upper-level trough. The strongest winds were far removed from the center because the convection was displaced east due to strong wind shear.

If a tropical cyclone starts fully tropical then aquires subtropical characteristics would it be consitered subtropical, post-tropical, or remain tropical?
Quoting 129. birdsrock2016:


LOL, let's just focus on the current disturbance that is dumping SOuth FLorida with rain today.

Had a few inches in Central Florida from it today.

GEOS-5 wants to make a near struggling tropical depression of it. Has it sort of breaking into two competing lows that never really get going.
TA13 has a point.. What the storm was forecast to do...go subtropical before it hit FL and what it did (go straight asymmetric cold core) were two different things.

Here was before it hit FL..


and current.. Note, it's still forecast to eventually get a little sub-tropical..


Quoting 127. BaltimoreBrian:

The NHC designated Colin a storm and that settles it. However I would not have argued if the NHC had designated Colin a sub-tropical storm.


To an extent I enjoy the discussion about a storm, but in the end the NHC is the official decision maker... And they even have the right of after the season review.

I do remember a time when we were arguing as to why a storm wasn't named yet and now we argue that they named one. Granted a lot of that has to do with insurance deductibles, since a non-named storm could fall under the broad policy rather than the windstorm. In addition, other economic factors like not being able to bind a new home owners policy and therefore prevent a house closing also occur. I can sort see the push to NOT name storms that don't deserve it.
Some rainy pics as the sun set..


Hooray - my Florida Keys cistern filled today. Our tree frogs are rejoicing tonight.

Quoting 133. Skyepony:


Had a few inches in Central Florida from it today.

GEOS-5 wants to make a near struggling tropical depression of it. Has it sort of breaking into two competing lows that never really get going.

Quoting 131. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Just to clear up some confusion on the blog that I've seen a lot this year...

Just because a storm's maximum winds are more removed from its center than is typical for a normal tropical storm does not make it subtropical. Subtropical storms are shallow, asymmetric warm cores that typically derive their energy from being underneath upper-level troughs/lows.

Colin was a symmetric warm core, and it was not positioned underneath an upper-level trough. The strongest winds were far removed from the center because the convection was displaced east due to strong wind shear.


I could not have said it better (and I tried earlier).
Quoting 132. MrTornadochase:


If a tropical cyclone starts fully tropical then aquires subtropical characteristics would it be consitered subtropical, post-tropical, or remain tropical?

If it acquires subtropical characteristics, it's subtropical.
Quoting 132. MrTornadochase:


If a tropical cyclone starts fully tropical then aquires subtropical characteristics would it be consitered subtropical, post-tropical, or remain tropical?


Generally, tropical storms do not acquire subtropical characteristics, although there are three instances where this has happened (Hurricane Klaus in 1984, Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 and Tropical Storm Lee in 2011) - Wikipedia

Subtropical storms usually form from extratropical lows (upper level lows). Also evidence that Colin was not a subtropical storm when it initiated, as it initiated from a low level circulation (with multiple low-level vortices in and around it).
Quoting 123. JRRP7:


This could be the year that does not go POOF.
Quoting 141. unknowncomic:

This could be the year that does not go POOF.

We could see some early MDR activity if the environment is unstable enough. Instability in the tropical Atlantic remains below average as of now, but I would not be surprised to see it trend above average in a few months.

Quoting 142. HurricaneFan:


We could see some early MDR activity if the environment is unstable enough. Instability in the tropical Atlantic remains below average as of now, but I would not be surprised to see it trend above average in a few months.



Once the SAL outbreaks stop or lessen the tropical Atlantic should become favorable for tropical development due to increase in ocean temps and instability
Evening all. Feels like the cold front's already gone through .... it's raining out, and earlier, around 9 p.m. we had a lovely light show out west .... it's pretty chilly and windy out there, too.



Between this and the AOI near Cuba, it looks like a rainy 48 ....
Quoting 140. daddyjames:



Generally, tropical storms do not acquire subtropical characteristics, although there are three instances where this has happened (Hurricane Klaus in 1984, Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 and Tropical Storm Lee in 2011) - Wikipedia

Subtropical storms usually form from extratropical lows (upper level lows). Also evidence that Colin was not a subtropical storm when it initiated, as it initiated from a low level circulation (with multiple low-level vortices in and around it).


They do transition to cold core storms... Not sure that the original question was asking though. Once it's a tropical storm, it gets named and is known as "tropical storm" XXXXX.
Quoting 123. JRRP7:


Ridickilis .....

That says 18 June!
147. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA/NASA-Langley (final product not an official product of either)
AREA:: Tropical region covered by this Sat imagery, GoMx-Caribbean
D&T:: 201606-08;1215u till 201606-08;2345u
SAT TYPE:: 3 super-imposed at types
OBS:: When one looks at all layers it shows how tough it is to generate cyclonic motion...reason? my explanation on my blogs as to the 2-3 month delay for El Niño's lag-time. ~3 months ago El Niño went below moderate towards LOW Nino, lets see how shear behaves in the next ~week or 9 days.
NOTE:: Unrelated to this VID, notice the polar vortex swinging high gusts towards the NYC area just had an Autumn sound, garbage cans being blown at 0903 PM EDT NYC. Gust sustained for ~12 secs at 35 mph it seemed, sound like it was raining due to the continuous rattling of leaves.

here 628x304 actual 828x400 - YOUTUBE https://youtu.be/L_5uQrh9s68
Quoting 103. Tcwx2:

Just kidding around sorry though.
what other blogger
with the E PAC hurricane season starting on may 15th and now here are a few weeks later on june 8th and still no named storm yet for the E PAC this season we could be looking at Record low activity has i do not see any named storms for the E PAC for the next 2 to 3 weeks or longer
Wow what a hot miserable day, nothing like summer passing out
Quoting 131. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Just to clear up some confusion on the blog that I've seen a lot this year...

Just because a storm's maximum winds are more removed from its center than is typical for a normal tropical storm does not make it subtropical. Subtropical storms are shallow, asymmetric warm cores that typically derive their energy from being underneath upper-level troughs/lows.

Colin was a symmetric warm core, and it was not positioned underneath an upper-level trough. The strongest winds were far removed from the center because the convection was displaced east due to strong wind shear.
Thanks for the clarity. People who did not look at the wind profile from Sfc to 250 hPa won't understand how the "naked" centre, with winds so far away, could still be tropical. However, if you had looked at the nullschool.com depiction, it would have been immediately clear; 50kt winds over Colin just ripped the convection away as soon as it formed. In fact, one shudders to think what would have been capable with this storm if it had been able to avoid that shear. The fact that it survived to do the damage it did is proof of the potential of the storm. However, yes, it did meet the criteria. Totally warm air mass, too, with intensely humid PWAT profile ....
I think we might have another named storm or 2 by the end of June. The season is already very active in the Atlantic but waning in the Eastern Pacific.
Quoting 150. Accu3535:

Wow what a hot miserable day, nothing like summer passing out


Here too. Scorching hot... hit the low 70s... But the greenhouse effect makes the house in the 80s. No AC either. Window Fans are helping out though.
Quoting 144. BahaHurican:

Evening all. Feels like the cold front's already gone through .... it's raining out, and earlier, around 9 p.m. we had a lovely light show out west .... it's pretty chilly and windy out there, too.



Between this and the AOI near Cuba, it looks like a rainy 48 ....


Hmm.... I don't think so. Still very hot and humid. The rain did not help very much.
Quoting 151. BahaHurican:

Thanks for the clarity. People who did not look at the wind profile from Sfc to 250 hPa won't understand how the "naked" centre, with winds so far away, could still be tropical. However, if you had looked at the nullschool.com depiction, it would have been immediately clear; 50kt winds over Colin just ripped the convection away as soon as it formed. In fact, one shudders to think what would have been capable with this storm if it had been able to avoid that shear. The fact that it survived to do the damage it did is proof of the potential of the storm. However, yes, it did meet the criteria. Totally warm air mass, too, with intensely humid PWAT profile ....

We have seen some "resilient" storms so far this year. Usually you don't have early season activity like this coming out of a strong El Niño. Last year we still had 11-4-2 under some of the worst shear ever. Let's see what 2016 is like without the strong shear that has plagued the Atlantic the last 3 years.
A few pics from Carolina Beach, NC. Minor flooding rains Monday night and breezy Tuesday morning with surf 4-6'. I'm back in Wilkesboro finally.





Quoting 149. Tazmanian:

with the E PAC hurricane season starting on may 15th and now here are a few weeks later on june 8th and still no named storm yet for the E PAC this season we could be looking at Record low activity has i do not see any named storms for the E PAC for the next 2 to 3 weeks or longer

The entire Norhern Pacific has only seen one named storm this year: Hurricane Pali, which formed in January in the CPAC. The EPAC and WPAC have one TD each.
Quoting 149. Tazmanian:

with the E PAC hurricane season starting on may 15th and now here are a few weeks later on june 8th and still no named storm yet for the E PAC this season we could be looking at Record low activity has i do not see any named storms for the E PAC for the next 2 to 3 weeks or longer


Agreed, Taz. The pattern now seems to be shifting over to La-Nina, which spells trouble for the Atlantic and will continue to suppress activity in the PAcific.
I'm curious...
A boy at my school has been in critical condition after hydroplaning during Colin...
If he does unfortunately not survive, would this death be considered direct or indirect...
I'm assuming direct but I'm curious..
Never had a Tropical Related Death around here as far as I know
Quoting 149. Tazmanian:

with the E PAC hurricane season starting on may 15th and now here are a few weeks later on june 8th and still no named storm yet for the E PAC this season we could be looking at Record low activity has i do not see any named storms for the E PAC for the next 2 to 3 weeks or longer


The WPAC may have a record low to be honest. By this time last season, there had been 7 storms, 3 of which were Cat 5 super typhoons.
Quoting 159. JrWeathermanFL:

I'm curious...
A boy at my school has been in critical condition after hydroplaning during Colin...
If he does unfortunately not survive, would this death be considered direct or indirect...
I'm assuming direct but I'm curious..
Never had a Tropical Related Death around here as far as I know

Indirect.
The wall of shear the last two years over the Caribbean was incredible. Clearly as VisO pointed out, there is lag time in this flip. Conditionally shear keeps trending in this direction and the epic cold pool in the northern Atlantic doesn't throw kinks into the mix; any storm that makes it through the eastern Caribbean could spell big problems down the road. We could realistically be looking at a 15-18 named storms. The EPAC are the tea leaves that are suggesting this is to come.
Quoting 159. JrWeathermanFL:

I'm curious...
A boy at my school has been in critical condition after hydroplaning during Colin...
If he does unfortunately not survive, would this death be considered direct or indirect...
I'm assuming direct but I'm curious..
Never had a Tropical Related Death around here as far as I know


I would consider it indirect because it was not caused by storm surge or by wind.
WPAC always wakes up in a big way, but nothing like last year. We're back in the game. Early season forecasts are going to bust in my opinion. It's our turn. Should be exciting as hell which is always tempered by the cost in all forms. This is great for the blog but could be real bad for the basin.
Hi - I don't comment often but this itcz shot of the Atlantic tonight is wonderful. Hope you like it.



here is the link

Link

I've half been tuning into the Collin debate here.
The debate about Colin is or isn't will continue I believe and for good reason. This is why. Our technology has exceeded our old definitions. Ceres for example was once considered a planet (I'll let you google that). (No I won't get into Pluto here).

Colin was right on the elongated and highly sheared cusp. In earlier years, this would have been a very powerful storm. Today it is Colin. I personally don't care where the jury goes on this one.

Camille and Andrew were the baddest ones for me.

ciao
Quoting 160. Hurricanes101:



The WPAC may have a record low to be honest. By this time last season, there had been 7 storms, 3 of which were Cat 5 super typhoons.

Honestly right now I wouldn't be surprised if the Atlantic has the most ACE of the three basins. WPac and EPac are both below average so far.
Bye all, have a good night. I will say one last thing before I go.

Hurricane Sandy back in 2012 turned postropical and became huge, but the NHC kept the name because the winds were qualified enough. COllin can be considered an example of merging with a cold front and trying to battle shear which ultimately prevented it from strengthening and becoming well-defined.
The oceans are the great balance of climate. Energy if not being released like we saw last year across the Pacific will be released somewhere. That balance will swing to our basin, I believe, in a very big way come peak.
In a word - yes

PS - Sandy was one of the largest ones I've seen. Even here in south Florida and the Carib this was clear - Hispaniola to the Keys it was felt. "Turned into" means transition. Transition means process. Cellular division is still taught as interphase, metaphase, anaphase, and telophase. I always taught that it is a process.

We are collecting so much more data than before that our standards will be changed. I look forward to it.




Quoting 168. birdsrock2016:

Bye all, have a good night. I will say one last thing before I go.

Hurricane Sandy back in 2012 turned postropical and became huge, but the NHC kept the name because the winds were qualified enough. COllin can be considered an example of merging with a cold front and trying to battle shear which ultimately prevented it from strengthening and becoming well-defined.
Low pressure has developed with this AOI. Moisture feed from the Yucatan has finally began to encroach on the invest. Crickets here tonight, gonna miss a nice convection build I believe.
docrod, if you've got the time, clearly your informed, post more! Really like what you add.
Clear initiation of a convection build starting over AOI. People will be waking to a very healthy blob by morning. If Grothar says so of coarse.
Dew point now 44 degrees in southern Delaware. Unusual for this time of year. Very pleasant and the windows are open. Very cool spring except for the last two weeks. Sure beats central Fla. where we spent the last 25 years. Unusual spring.
Thank you DeepSeaRising, I acknowledge and am humbled by your very kind comment. I will attempt to do so. I used to comment more often but am considering coming back more often.

Yes I have a long history and my experience with tropical systems goes back a ways. Regarding weather however I'm a rank amateur who loves the science. My profession is marine ecology and at night I'm a professionalized astronomer (meaning I spend a lot on it).

I actually go back to the days when the weather underground was a site out of the U of Mich! We used Netscape and DOS 3.0 to access it.

I no longer trouble Jeff Masters with personal stuff btw (we used to chat back and forth in the 90's), he has built a wonderful site since those days and I'm proud of it.

- thank you for prodding me - we shall see.

Quoting 172. DeepSeaRising:

docrod, if you've got the time, clearly your informed, post more! Really like what you add.
Quoting 175. docrod:

Thank you DeepSeaRising, I acknowledge and am humbled by your very kind comment. I will attempt to do so. I used to comment more often but am considering coming back more often.

Yes I have a long history and my experience with tropical systems goes back a ways. Regarding weather however I'm a rank amateur who loves the science. My profession is marine ecology and at night I'm a professionalized astronomer (meaning I spend a lot on it).

I actually go back to the days when the weather underground was a site out of the U of Mich! We used Netscape and DOS 3.0 to access it.

I no longer trouble Jeff Masters with personal stuff btw (we used to chat back and forth in the 90's), he has built a wonderful site since those days and I'm proud of it.

- thank you for prodding me - we shall see.




Indeed on all accounts. Jeff and company have done an amazing job. WU has transformed TWC into the foremost voice in climate and weather. TWC was always good, but got lost in commercialization at a point, they have now made the transition to being the voice of science and climate.
Quoting 171. DeepSeaRising:

Low pressure has developed with this AOI. Moisture feed from the Yucatan has finally began to encroach on the invest. Crickets here tonight, gonna miss a nice convection build I believe.
Quoting 173. DeepSeaRising:

Clear initiation of a convection build starting over AOI. People will be waking to a very healthy blob by morning. If Grothar says so of coarse.


Quoting 177. FIUStormChaser:






My community of tree frogs are banging the pots and pans together tonight and yelling "Gro?" ;>)
Quoting 178. docrod:



My community of tree frogs are banging the pots and pans together tonight and yelling "Gro?" ;>)


Talking frogs strong enough to bang pots and pans together? Clearly FGH usage. Clearly climate has gone too far! Gro's the best. We're blessed to still have that warrior with us.
Alaska just had it's warmest spring on record.

alaska-just-had-its-warmest-spring-on-record
183. IDTH
Quoting 179. Gearsts:



Those waters by the east coast are running way above average.
Still clinging to the bottom rung of that rope Gro, as is the world, in more ways than one. What you add here and to many of us personally is priceless. Your a great member, friend, and the only guy to hitch a ride on the Arch. Now that was a flash flood. Thank you for being you.
185. SLU
For entertainment purposes only:

Quoting 185. SLU:

For entertainment purposes only:




I dunno, I think things like that are probably harbingers of an active season, definitely moreso than anticipated by any current forecasting agency. We've already had tropical waves with unusually deep convection east of the islands, which is definitely not normal in early June.
You see docrod Kori? That's humility, and it will develop with time. Don't find it just yet, we need the young guns here. Love your brashness and knowledge.
189. SLU
Quoting 186. KoritheMan:



I dunno, I think things like that are probably harbingers of an active season, definitely moreso than anticipated by any current forecasting agency. We've already had tropical waves with unusually deep convection east of the islands, which is definitely not normal in early June.


I agree with you.
Quoting 186. KoritheMan:



I dunno, I think things like that are probably harbingers of an active season, definitely moreso than anticipated by any current forecasting agency. We've already had tropical waves with unusually deep convection east of the islands, which is definitely not normal in early June.

The vigor these tropical waves have shown isn't surprising given the continued wet Sahel that we've seen in recent years. Even if a wave were to develop in the central/eastern Atlantic over the next month or so, I'd be skeptical of calling it a harbinger of an active season in and of itself after Tropical Storm Chantal in 2013. Could have been the exception, not the rule, though.
Quoting 181. Dakster:

Alaska just had it's warmest spring on record.

alaska-just-had-its-warmest-spring-on-record


Bringing Florida with you...what are you like?!?? :P LOL
Brother, there is no change. Powers that be still are and will be so. American's are SCREAMING for change to fairness and a change to the people's will. That won't happen. Nothing has ever been so entrenched. It's world wide and strangling fairness across every level. We're 20 trillion in debt. Where did that money go? Top 1% earnings over the last two decades show EXACTLY where the money went. But no one really looks to truth. We are so well ENTERTAINED and DIVIDED. Tick tock.
Quoting 174. ozelloslim:

Dew point now 44 degrees in southern Delaware. Unusual for this time of year. Very pleasant and the windows are open. Very cool spring except for the last two weeks. Sure beats central Fla. where we spent the last 25 years. Unusual spring.
Yes it is very cool outside and feels more like a night in early April than June.
I created my own map on my blog in comment #794. Everyone is welcome to go to http://www.270towin.com/ and post their maps in my blog and talk about them. I have a feeling that political maps will be removed from this blog.
I dare say we have ourselves a late night WU get together. Good to see. I've enjoyed following you all for a very long time.
Quoting 195. BaltimoreBrian:

I created my own map on my blog in comment #794. Everyone is welcome to go to http://www.270towin.com/ and post their maps in my blog and talk about them. I have a feeling that political maps will be removed from this blog.

As they should be.
Quoting 197. Qazulight:


As they should be.


I totally disagree. Politics are at the very heart of climate change.
Quoting 198. DeepSeaRising:



I totally disagree. Politics are at the very heart of climate change.


A careful study of politics and Macro Economics, which is way more political, has left me with the belief that politics has very little to do with anything, especially the U.S. Presidential Election. I do however follow the sentiment represented by the general elections, including the lower level elections, I.E. the State houses up to the U.S. Congress.

In reality, when you understand the economics, and you understand the the major leaders control the situation about like surfers control the waves, you understand that there is next to nothing any politician can do help stop global warming.

They pass carbon taxes, and they can subsidize green energy, but they cannot make a big enough change to actually change the climate. Basically all they can do is protect their special interest.

So, politics is the opiate that stops vigorous analysis.

Cheers
Qazulight
Quoting 199. Qazulight:



A careful study of politics and Macro Economics, which is way more political, has left me with the belief that politics has very little to do with anything, especially the U.S. Presidential Election. I do however follow the sentiment represented by the general elections, including the lower level elections, I.E. the State houses up to the U.S. Congress.

In reality, when you understand the economics, and you understand the the major leaders control the situation about like surfers control the waves, you understand that there is next to nothing any politician can do help stop global warming.

They pass carbon taxes, and they can subsidize green energy, but they cannot make a big enough change to actually change the climate. Basically all they can do is protect their special interest.

So, politics is the opiate that stops vigorous analysis.

Cheers
Qazulight


Very well stated and a very hard truth pill to swallow. And there indeed lies the rub. What then? Bleak indeed. We are doomed to meet the fate we have chosen.
Qaz, that indeed is well stated, the truth, and the rub. The hour is late indeed.
Quoting 187. DeepSeaRising:

You see docrod Kori? That's humility, and it will develop with time. Don't find it just yet, we need the young guns here. Love your brashness and knowledge.


Who says I'm not humble? o_O
Quoting 190. TropicalAnalystwx13:


The vigor these tropical waves have shown isn't surprising given the continued wet Sahel that we've seen in recent years. Even if a wave were to develop in the central/eastern Atlantic over the next month or so, I'd be skeptical of calling it a harbinger of an active season in and of itself after Tropical Storm Chantal in 2013. Could have been the exception, not the rule, though.


I have every reason to believe 2013 was an exception. That's like the only post-1978 year where that rule didn't apply. I don't think you could make a legitimate case for calling it anything but an exception.

Not to mention a wet Sahel has nothing to do with the theory. The idea is that the MDR is more favorable than usual whenever we see these things, but I guess they can work hand in hand sometimes.
Quoting 203. KoritheMan:



Who says I'm not humble? o_O


Not I, would never suggest such a thing. Perhaps my account has been hacked by me. You know I'm only accountable for what I can remember. We need young blood, without it, we wax old, and forget the idealism we once had.
Quoting 205. DeepSeaRising:



Not I, would never suggest such a thing. Perhaps my account has been hacked by me. You know I'm only accountable for what I can remember. We need young blood, without it, we wax old, and forget the idealism we once had.


I was gonna say... sar was the one who first pointed out how I'd gained empathy and insight a couple years ago, and it was right under my nose the entire time. I think him denoting that is a big reason the change happened as fast as it did.

I still have very little tolerance for people I deem stupid or unworthy of respect, though. And regardless of whether or not anyone's completely honest about that, I know they feel the same way, too. That's literally why we avoid certain friendships in the first place; too many differences.

And I would hardly consider myself idealistic, btw. I probably have a more narrow view of humanity the most of the blog here, I promise you that.
That cold pool is indeed the wildcard this season. I think we may end up with several Joaquin type storms this season. Whether of not they hit the CONUS, IDK.

Quoting 162. DeepSeaRising:

The wall of shear the last two years over the Caribbean was incredible. Clearly as VisO pointed out, there is lag time in this flip. Conditionally shear keeps trending in this direction and the epic cold pool in the northern Atlantic doesn't throw kinks into the mix; any storm that makes it through the eastern Caribbean could spell big problems down the road. We could realistically be looking at a 15-18 named storms. The EPAC are the tea leaves that are suggesting this is to come.
welcome to summer. been a few weeks here in e cen florida already. i lived in many warm places on the planet but June to Sept here in Fl. top the list for the unbearable heat. if there was no A/C orlando would be uninhabitable.
I would think that all the rain we suppose to get next week here in the southeast is from that blob in the BOC? Lots of activity going on down there now, plus it's crossing into the waters BOC
there is a tiny little thunderstorm peeking out into the BOC
Good Morning Folks; the surface trof streaming across from Cuba towards Florida has dried out a bit (no development) but there is some moisture on the E-Pac side of things.  Looks like the trof is pulling away and that moisture is going to stay on the E-Pac side:



the leftover trough of colin over the yucatan seems to be retrograding and could combine with the leftovers of the epac td. might have to watch the Boc.
The all clear for the Atlantic: typical scenario for June with the recent exception of Colin
which has been debated...................... :)


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
Quoting 210. islander101010:

welcome to summer. been a few weeks here in e cen florida already. i lived in many warm places on the planet but June to Sept here in Fl. top the list for the unbearable heat. if there was no A/C orlando would be uninhabitable.


I 've lived in e central Florida all my life. Didn't get AC in the house until I was about 15 years old. It really wasn't that bad. There were a handful of nights that were tough, but for the most part, we were acclimated to it.
Our more local watch in Conus is the typical severe weather outbreaks (tornadoes) that we see this time of the year with June being the climatological peak of the season. However, things have been rather quiet the past several days and the Conus jet is not streaming across the Southern tier into the mid-west in conjunction with lower trajectory low pressure systems and the warm Gulf flow. The current weather pattern is not favorable for tornadoes so we have to see whether this is a temporary lull or if June will end up being a very quiet month (outside of the norm) for tornadoes.


%uFFFD%uFFFD
Quoting 218. fmbill:



I 've lived in e central Florida all my life. Didn't get AC in the house until I was about 15 years old. It really wasn't that bad. There were a handful of nights that were tough, but for the most part, we were acclimated to it.


I think I could live without a house having AC down there. But a car without AC, which seemed to be more common a longer time ago, is out of the question. I'd lose five pounds a day commuting to work in sweat.
And finally the US Drought Monitor just issued. Noting the no drought conditions for the lower Gulf Coast including Texas, Lower LA, and Florida due to all of the recent rains and flooding but worsening conditions in parts of California and the SW due to the lack of rain in those parts; the loss of the typical El Nino southern low trajectory issue in recent weeks, which may be the reason the tornado season is so quiet at the moment, is also contributing to the lack of rain in the SW.  The recent Texas flooding was the result of the stubborn ULL parked over the State as to opposed to from frontal systems moving across from the Pacific and SW:

 Current U.S. Drought Monitor
I haven't heard any mention of Sahara dust as a factor in the main development area of the Atlantic this year. Is that because the Sahel is getting decent rains ?
Quoting 183. IDTH:


Those waters by the east coast are running way above average.

The SST setup in the Atlantic is strange. It does not resemble a true -AMO or +AMO. In a true -AMO the far north and tropical Atlantic have below normal SSTs, while the western tropical Atlantic has slightly above average SSTs. In our current SST setup, the far North Atlantic is cold (although this is expected to change according to the CFS and NMME), the west Atlantic is extremely warm, and the tropical Atlantic is currently slightly above average. Because of the warm SSTs in most of the Atlantic the AMO is running positive according to values.

This SST setup is not likely to produce the same types of seasons we saw in the 1970s/1980s. In those seasons the Atlantic was more consistently cool. Record warm waters can do a lot - we saw that with Joaquin and Kate last year, and Alex earlier this year.
Quoting 222. Houdude:

I haven't heard any mention of Sahara dust as a factor in the main development area of the Atlantic this year. Is that because the Sahel is getting decent rains ?
SAL is always a factor, for any given wave or storm during the Atlantic Season, but there has been some pretty decent rainfall to the South of the Sahel in recent months which is slowly moving to the North and June is the rainy season peak for the Sahel. Looking like it may not be as critical a factor this year from the current look of things in Africa as the waves are looking very healthy so far as I noted yesterday:






Good morning

I have entered the 21st century! Signed up for Twitter. Motivated by Stephanie Abrams of AMHQ on TWC of all people why?

I happened to turn on AMHQ - and they were showing this really cool 3D map of the US, talking about rain chances . . . but that's not why.

Stephanie Abrams was commenting about upcoming potential for rain falling over the Lake Okeechobee region in Florida. "That's a good thing" she says. Paraphrasing the rest: You could always use extra water, even though your not in a drought. Can store the extra water.

Meteorologists not knowing what they are talking about, gotta love it.

Dr. Hensen/Dr. Masters, you need to educate your colleagues. If they don't know what they're talking about, don't say anything at all..

DEP'S DAILY UPDATE ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE

Lake O releases won't change despite algae bloom containing toxin
2:02 p.m. Friday, May 13, 2016 |
Palm Beach Post

PHOTOS: Flow of Lake Okeechobee water release - NBC-2.com

FROM THE SANIBEL LIGHTHOUSE AREA (published 1 day ago)
226. elioe
Good warm June afternoon to all, with a video to bring everyone to summer mood! ;)

Even here 100 km inland, gusts reached around 45 mph earlier in the morning. I went to a bike trip a couple of hours ago, and saw some tree branches severed. Still about 4000 households without power in Finland, but that's down from 7000, and I guess most of power line damage will be repaired today.
Quoting 223. HurricaneFan:


The SST setup in the Atlantic is strange. It does not resemble a true -AMO or +AMO. In a true -AMO the far north and tropical Atlantic have below normal SSTs, while the western tropical Atlantic has slightly above average SSTs. In our current SST setup, the far North Atlantic is cold (although this is expected to change according to the CFS and NMME), the west Atlantic is extremely warm, and the tropical Atlantic is currently slightly above average. Because of the warm SSTs in most of the Atlantic the AMO is running positive according to values.

This SST setup is not likely to produce the same types of seasons we saw in the 1970s/1980s. In those seasons the Atlantic was more consistently cool. Record warm waters can do a lot - we saw that with Joaquin and Kate last year, and Alex earlier this year.



Wondering how much the alarming Arctic ice melt is affecting AMO values in the region. Arctic ocean currents are connected with other oceans, namely our North Atlantic gyre; you'd think they'd be closer to neutral, but as it isn't as dense as mid-latitude water (which has a much higher salinity) so it doesn't sink and move as far beneath the thermocline and towards the equator. Just my speculation.
Quoting 225. daddyjames:

Good morning

I have entered the 21st century! Signed up for Twitter. Motivated by Stephanie Abrams of AMHQ on TWC of all people why?

I happened to turn on AMHQ - and they were showing this really cool 3D map of the US, talking about rain chances . . . but that's not why.

Stephanie Abrams was commenting about upcoming potential for rain falling over the Lake Okeechobee region in Florida. "That's a good thing" she says. Paraphrasing the rest: You could always use extra water, even though your not in a drought. Can store the extra water.

Meteorologists not knowing what they are talking about, gotta love it.

Dr. Hensen/Dr. Masters, you need to educate your colleagues. If they don't know what they're talking about, don't say anything at all..

DEP'S DAILY UPDATE ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE

Lake O releases won't change despite algae bloom containing toxin
2:02 p.m. Friday, May 13, 2016 |
Palm Beach Post

PHOTOS: Flow of Lake Okeechobee water release - NBC-2.com

FROM THE SANIBEL LIGHTHOUSE AREA (published 1 day ago)



I love how all of them have engineering degrees when they are talking about levees in New Orleans.
Quoting 218. fmbill:



I 've lived in e central Florida all my life. Didn't get AC in the house until I was about 15 years old. It really wasn't that bad. There were a handful of nights that were tough, but for the most part, we were acclimated to it.


Agree I have lived there too, without air conditioning, in the house and in the car. Yoou do have to carry a change of clothes though if you are in the car . . .
Ahhhh, just like always..... once there is no real weather to talk about, this blog turns to politics.

I'll be back once there is some real weather news.


A potential-to-be-a-tropical-storm system over Adriatic Sea.
Monthly Ocean Briefing June 2016

Excerpts:







Also,


EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC
DISCUSSION


Excerpt:

ENSO Alert System Status: Final El Niño Advisory/ La Niña Watch
Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions are present and La Niña is favored to develop during the
Northern Hemisphere summer 2016, with about a 75% chance of La Niña during the fall and
winter 2016-17.
Changing the conversation from politics but related to the past ice-age, some very interesting research coming out on the North and South American Migration (from Asia and Alaska) and very early settlement periods; amazing stuff and nice to see a Florida connection (for those ancestors that settled in the Eastern US as opposed to staying on the move into South America):

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/06/humans-did n-t-wait-melting-ice-settle-americas


For most of the last ice age, enormous glaciers covered western Canada. And yet people still managed to cross deep into the Americas from their settlements in western Alaska. How did they do it? Archaeologists once thought a narrow strip of land opened up between the glaciers, allowing them passage. But others suspect the migrants hopped down the Pacific coast in boats long before that happened. Now, a new study of bison fossils offers the most precise date yet for the opening of the ice-free corridor: 13,000 years ago. Combined with evidence of earlier occupations in the lower 48, it suggests the corridor could not have been the first route people took into the New World.


Northern and southern bison were mingling within the ice-free corridor by about 13,000 years ago, the team reports online today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. That’s right around the first appearance of Clovis points. But it’s well after a handful of sites dated to the pre-Clovis period, including Page-Ladson in Florida, where archaeologists recently discovered a 14,500-year-old stone biface.
Quoting 220. win1gamegiantsplease:



I think I could live without a house having AC down there. But a car without AC, which seemed to be more common a longer time ago, is out of the question. I'd lose five pounds a day commuting to work in sweat.


I did it in grad school 1984-87 in TLH. My first AC car was purchased in 1988. You do get acclimated.
Quoting 194. washingtonian115:

Yes it is very cool outside and feels more like a night in early April than June.


I'll take it!!. Unfortunately it won't last and forcast turned last night to hot for the weekend followed by cooler again next weekend.

I always thought cold would get to me as I aged. But it's heat that drains the life out of me and I'm looking forward to 45F and splitting wood for the stove again.
Quoting 174. ozelloslim:

Dew point now 44 degrees in southern Delaware. Unusual for this time of year. Very pleasant and the windows are open. Very cool spring except for the last two weeks. Sure beats central Fla. where we spent the last 25 years. Unusual spring.


March was near record warm. April and May were cool though but May did not turn out nearly as far below normal as I thought it would. Still my corn will be the latest since 2003 and 1992. This will likely be the third year of the past twenty five where I don't have corn by the summer solstice.
There is a spin near the NE tip of the Yucatan. Has anybody seen that?
Nothing in the next 5 days.

Pat has been seeing it too, my ears perked up yesterday but nothing to really get concerned about
Lets see if that pacific system has handed off the baton into the GOM, we have frontal boundary and weak circulation. We are now 72 hrs in now
There is a broad cyclonic circulation at the surface and mid level in the Western Gulf off the Coast of Texas as identified by Pat below:


Surface:

Mid-Level:
Good morning from Southern Illinois!

Going to be a BEAUTIFUL DAY like OMG. Temps soaring into the 90's today....I cannot believe it. But I am loving it!! Going with my friends to the cove for the weekend. Gonna lay out in the sun, drink some beers, and throw out a couple lines. CANNOT WAIT!!

Natalie

Quoting 243. Patrap:



Hm.....

Does this "spin" have a chance of becoming Danielle?
Quoting 251. BuckyBeaver:

Good morning from Southern Illinois!

Going to be a BEAUTIFUL DAY like OMG. Temps soaring into the 90's today....I cannot believe it. But I am loving it!! Going with my friends to the cove for the weekend. Gonna lay out in the sun, drink some beers, and throw out a couple lines. CANNOT WAIT!!

Natalie




Where have you been?!

Quoting 252. Famoguy1234:


Hm.....

Does this "spin" have a chance of becoming Danielle?
Not likely due to proximity to land and no model support but it is exciting as "h" to see something spin up suddenly that was unexpected which happens once every blue moon.................. :)
#252

I never forecast as I am NOT a met. I urge anyone that asks me those questions to read the Current NHC discussion.


Quoting 251. BuckyBeaver:




Not cool.
Quoting 253. RitaEvac:



Where have you been?!


Not who you think it is.
The vis loop and updated surface vort chart:





Quoting 222. Houdude:

I haven't heard any mention of Sahara dust as a factor in the main development area of the Atlantic this year. Is that because the Sahel is getting decent rains ?


Well, nothing has been developing in that region (and is not expected to). It may play a factor depending upon the position and strength of the "Azores High".

Edit: Named the wrong High. Dang, I hate when that happens . . .
Quoting 257. daddyjames:



Not who you think it is.

fooled me too.
Quoting 225. daddyjames:

Good morning

I have entered the 21st century! Signed up for Twitter. Motivated by Stephanie Abrams of AMHQ on TWC of all people why?

I happened to turn on AMHQ - and they were showing this really cool 3D map of the US, talking about rain chances . . . but that's not why.

Stephanie Abrams was commenting about upcoming potential for rain falling over the Lake Okeechobee region in Florida. "That's a good thing" she says. Paraphrasing the rest: You could always use extra water, even though your not in a drought. Can store the extra water.

Meteorologists not knowing what they are talking about, gotta love it.

Dr. Hensen/Dr. Masters, you need to educate your colleagues. If they don't know what they're talking about, don't say anything at all..

DEP'S DAILY UPDATE ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE

Lake O releases won't change despite algae bloom containing toxin
2:02 p.m. Friday, May 13, 2016 |
Palm Beach Post

PHOTOS: Flow of Lake Okeechobee water release - NBC-2.com

FROM THE SANIBEL LIGHTHOUSE AREA (published 1 day ago)


Its is terrible on the east coast as well killing the indian river estuary.
Has anyone heard about Sea Lice in the Gulf of Mexico? They are jellyfish larvae and will give you lots of bites.
Tail end of a dying cold front to a low off the Texas coast in the warming Gulf. Development possibility?
Leak low crossing the state right now. Models don't do anything with it. Just a rainy day for my area.
Quoting 264. HurriHistory:



What Stephanie Abrams knows about the weather you could fit into a hangnail and still have plenty of room left over. Over the years I've heard her say some real stupid things on the subject of Hurricanes and just the weather in general.


Funny thing is, I never watch TWC . . . (shouldn't admit that I suppose). With the exception of their tropical weather updates occasionally. Flipping by and caught the 3D map and thought it was pretty cool. Then the ignorance was prominently demonstrated so I moved on . . . .
Quoting 263. Houdude:

Tail end of a dying cold front to a low off the Texas coast in the warming Gulf. Development possibility?


I think there's too much shear. But I always keep an eye on the gulf this time of year. :)
Some localized flooding across S.W. Florida.

The rain has cause some flooding in parts of Cape Coral. These photos were taken near 11th Street NE and 2nd Place NE. (source nbc2 news here in Fort Myers)


Quoting 266. daddyjames:



Funny thing is, I never watch TWC . . . (shouldn't admit that I suppose). With the exception of their tropical weather updates occasionally. Flipping by and caught the 3D map and thought it was pretty cool. Then the ignorance was prominently demonstrated so I moved on . . . .


I don't get TWC... I guess I am missing all the mis-information. I guess I have to stick with Foxnews for that.
Quoting 233. MahFL:



Steph was not hired for her brains, that's for sure.
Really? It can't be because she's got a degree in meteorology from FSU (where she graduated cum laude), as well as a degree from the University of Florida? It can't be because she has years of television broadcasting experience? It can't be because she was president of the North Florida chapter of the AMS?

It's silly, demeaning, and more than a little backwards to think that attractive people can become successful only because they're attractive.
Nuthin going on for the next week or so.
Quoting 270. Neapolitan:

Really? It can't be because she's got a degree in meteorology from FSU (where she graduated cum laude), as well as a degree from the University of Florida? It can't be because she has years of television broadcasting experience? It can't be because she was president of the North Florida chapter of the AMS?

It's silly, demeaning, and more than a little backwards to think that attractive people can become successful only because they're attractive.


That may be true Nea, but obviously she missed learning the problems with Lake O water releases during her years in Florida.
Quoting 270. Neapolitan:

Really? It can't be because she's got a degree in meteorology from FSU (where she graduated cum laude), as well as a degree from the University of Florida? It can't be because she has years of television broadcasting experience? It can't be because she was president of the North Florida chapter of the AMS?

It's silly, demeaning, and more than a little backwards to think that attractive people can become successful only because they're attractive.

As an attractive person myself I second this.
Quoting 255. Patrap:

#252

I never forecast as I am NOT a met. I urge anyone that asks me those questions to read the Current NHC discussion.





I often forecast and I am NOT a met. I urge anyone that reads forecasts here from many enthusiasts to read the current NHC discussion. Should always be the first source. Some great real forecasters here and a lot can be gleaned, but the SPC/NHC are the best for a reason. Finest forecasters in the world.
If you look close enough you can see the weak circulation. Remember yesterday the NHC had a 10% chance of something forming over the southern GOM heading towards Florida?

It could flare up a bit once it gets into the Atlantic, but so far the models just show a weak low that just continues moving eastward and then eventually dissipates.



Some of the models showing the weak low over Florida. But as mentioned, none of the models I've seen develop anything.
It is a truism that one of the main reasons that so many of us can participate on the blog and comment (both amateurs and pros at different levels) is the fact that so much of the real time data, and particularly all the satellite and buoy feeds, are readily available on the NOAA, University, and other internet sites from the US and around the World for all to access at the push of a button. The internet is a great thing with so many public (government) and scientific outlets on the net posting real time data for those who need it. We would all be flying blind, and with not much to comment on, if it were not for all of the technology and particularly the satellite imagery and computer modeling that we all access. Thus, no problem when looking at all the whirls and swirls out there, and commenting on them, even when there is no severe weather or tropical storms on the horizon at the moment.
278. beell
Quoting 263. Houdude:

Tail end of a dying cold front to a low off the Texas coast in the warming Gulf. Development possibility?


Watching that in Houston also.
Upper level winds not too conducive.


200 mb winds-valid 6PM this evening

JeffMasters has created a new entry.