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NOAA Calls for Near-Average 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season; Other Groups Go Bigger

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 6:41 PM GMT on May 27, 2016

In its first outlook for the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season, issued Friday, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is calling for near-normal activity as the most likely outcome. The NOAA outlook predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 10 - 16 named storms, 4 - 8 hurricanes, and 1 - 4 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). These numbers include Hurricane Alex, which developed in January over the northeast Atlantic. If we take the midpoint of these ranges, NOAA is calling for 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2.5 major hurricanes. This is very close to the 1981-2010 seasonal averages of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. NOAA/CPC forecaster Gerry Bell stressed: “This is a more challenging hurricane season outlook than most because it’s difficult to determine whether there will be reinforcing or competing climate influences on tropical storm development.” NOAA is projecting a 30 percent chance of an above-normal season and a 25 percent chance of a below-normal season.

One factor that looks increasingly likely to push the system toward a more active season is the likelihood of weak to moderate La Niña conditions by late summer. La Niña favors hurricane development in the Atlantic by reducing the amount of vertical wind shear that tends to prevail over the region. The latest monthly NOAA/IRI probabilistic outlook, issued May 19, calls for a 70-75% chance of La Niña conditions by late summer/early autumn. Several other forecasting groups are now predicting a considerably busier-than-usual season, as detailed below.



TSR predicts an above-average Atlantic hurricane season: 17 named storms
The May 27 forecast for the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season made by British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) is calling for a total of 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 130 for the period June through December. This is a major shift from TSR’s April 9 forecast, which called for a near-average season with 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 80. The changes are the result of a trend toward negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) conditions, which favor warmer peak-season waters in the main development region of the tropical Atlantic, as well as the increasing likelihood of La Niña.

CSU predicts a near-average Atlantic hurricane season: 13 named storms
A near-average Atlantic hurricane season is likely in 2016, said the hurricane forecasting team of Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU) in their latest seasonal forecast issued April 14. They called for an Atlantic hurricane season with 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 93 (these numbers all take Alex into account.) The next CSU forecast is due on June 1, and will receive a lot of media attention--it will be their first seasonal hurricane forecast issued without Dr. Bill Gray's authorship, as he passed away last month. Our April 14, 2016 blog post has more on CSU's most recent forecast.

UKMET office predicts a slightly above-average Atlantic hurricane season: 14 named storms
The UKMET office forecast for the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season, issued May 12, calls for slightly above-normal activity, with 14 named storms, 6 - 10 hurricanes, and an ACE index of 125 occurring during the period June - November. In contrast to the statistical models relied upon by CSU, TSR, and (to a lesser extent NOAA), the UKMET forecast is done strictly using a dynamical global seasonal model, the Met Office GloSea5 system.

The Weather Company predicts a slightly above-average Atlantic hurricane season: 14 named storms
The April 27 forecast from The Weather Company is calling for a near-average Atlantic hurricane season with 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

Penn State predicts an exceptionally above-average Atlantic hurricane season: 19 named storms
Here's a forecast worth paying attention to: the April 25 forecast made using a statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar called for an extremely active Atlantic hurricane season with 19 named storms (expected range: 14 to 24). Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the NAO, and other factors. The statistical model assumed that in 2016 the late-April +0.88°C departure of temperature from average in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic would persist throughout hurricane season, a moderate La Niña would form this fall, and the NAO would be near average. If no La Niña forms, their model predicts reduced activity: 16 named storms.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done well, except for in 2012, when an expected El Niño did not materialize:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12 named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19
2012 prediction: 11 named storms, Actual: 19
2013 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 14
2014 prediction: 9 named storms, Actual: 8
2015 prediction: 7 named storms, Actual: 11

NCSU predicts an above-average Atlantic hurricane season: 15 - 18 named storms
The April 15 forecast from North Carolina State University (NCSU), called for an above-average Atlantic hurricane season with 15 - 18 named storms, 8 - 11 hurricanes, and 3 - 5 major hurricanes. They use a statistical model encompassing more than 100 years of past Atlantic hurricane activity to make their forecasts.

Coastal Carolina University predicts a near-average Atlantic hurricane season: 13 named storms
The May 7 forecast from Coastal Carolina University called for a near-average Atlantic hurricane season with 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

Cuban Met service predicts a near-average Atlantic hurricane season: 12 named storms
The May 4 forecast from the Cuban Meteorological Service, INSMET, called for a near-average Atlantic hurricane season with 12 named storms and 7 hurricanes. The forecast is based on a statistical prediction model developed by Ballester, González and Pérez (2010).

Little change to 91L approaching the Southeast U.S. coast
There hasn't been a lot of change to the story of Invest 91L, which we detailed in a post put up at noon EDT on Friday. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft was in the storm Friday afternoon, and we'll wait to make a new post on 91L until the mission is complete.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Two blogs in one day? Woo. Thanks guys.

---

In my neck of the woods, we are drying out today after the exceptional rain storm last night. Mom said she through the twig into the woods (I was hoping to get a pic of it) after said twig caused us to lose electricity.
"Quoting 83. georgevandenberghe:



The first was also an anomaly, a baroclinic system that transitioned into a TC over relatively cool water but with cold air aloft too creating the instability necessary to sustain a TC. These do happen occasionally and it was incidentally very well handled by both ECMWF and the GFS several days out.

The second is a typical early season TC. Early activity is not predictive of total activity.

Otherwise though conditions do seem to be setting up for a more active season than the past few and the overall conclusion in the quoted post of more activity is likely correct."



In general, less dry air (in mid to upper levels perhaps), SAL is less, better vertical instability, and less shear. Scary to think of what could come from home grown systems later this season
Looks like 91L may be starting to take shape with evidence of convection trying to wrap around the circulation.
Last 4 runs in GFS have shown a Wilma like track, 3 times for a TS hitting FL and once for a Strong TS or Cat 1 (990 mb.) Just Saying...
AF307 Mission #01 into INVEST
Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: In Storm

As of 18:40 UTC May 27, 2016:
Aircraft Position: 27.57°N 74.33°W
Bearing: 45° at 160 kt
Altitude: 309 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 13 kt at 271°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A




Thanks Doc and Mr.Henson!
Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

click image for loop



Thanks; have to see if these numbers fluctuate any when the August updates from a few places (CSU) are issued based upon real time conditions entering the peak period and how this season will play out against the suggestion that we are supposed to be entering the start of the less active AMO period. Even in a less-active period, a La Nina can certainly extend the numbers a bit at the back end of the season in October and November.
..itsa Mojo risin'





We're seeing some newer Hot Towers finally on the N and Western semi circle of the inner overall .

thanks for update

Could be an interesting season! Thanks for the update gentlemen.
I'm with NCSU concerning their Atlantic season forecast (see Maxweather's blog to submit you own forecast). Future Bonnie has been looking good now and in the last hours as Invest 91L, we'll see what the colder waters and dryer air can do later in its track to hinder its persistance/intensification. GOES loop
-Confirmed tornado in Somme region, France, this afternoon. No damage reported yet, I wouldn't expect much of it. Impressive supercells with hail and downbursts are being observed today in France and also central europe with the night slowly falling. Maybe we'll get soon more tornado and flood/hail/wind damage reports in Western Europe, with thunderstorms activity only expected to increase during the weekend. More at my blog.
The Somme's tornado (keraunos.org):

Supercell, Bourgogne region, France :
Quoting 1. Astrometeor:

Two blogs in one day? Woo. Thanks guys.

---

their will be a third after the plane is done
Not seeing any impressive winds yet though
3rd blog (and second new one) for one day? Almost makes ya nervous to see that many under the circumstances... I will reiterate...I do not want a plethora of rain here...I know several areas still have weakened tree roots from the flood a few months ago....don't even need wind to topple some of these...oaks and pines are not flood tolerant as it is....

Oh, btw...afternoon PAT, Nash, Cam (how is your dad btw), Drak, Keeper....
If the convection keeps firing, it won't take too long for the pressure to drop enough to increase the coc wind speeds closer to the general 33 knot threshold (along with a closed off circulation):


Tropical Depression:
A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 33 kt (38 mph or 62 km/hr) or less.
Quoting 3. Drakoen:

Looks like 91L may be starting to take shape with evidence of convection trying to wrap around the circulation.


Indeed.

Let's see if it can maintain/build on it.
Quoting 14. Hurricanes101:

Not seeing any impressive winds yet though
that will take a bit yet just taking off could even fail the launch
The NHC is pushing the update until the last minute, maybe they are preparing an advisory?
000
ABNT20 KNHC 271856
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity has become more concentrated with
the area of low pressure located about 450 miles southeast of
Charleston, South Carolina. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is currently investigating the low to determine if
it has acquired a well-defined surface circulation. Environmental
conditions are favorable for this system to become a tropical
cyclone later today or on Saturday while it moves west-northwestward
toward the southeastern United States coast. Interests from Georgia
through North Carolina should monitor the progress of this low.

If advisories are not initiated this afternoon, the next Special
Tropical Weather Outlook on this disturbance will be issued by
8 PM EDT this evening. For additional information on this system,
please see High Seas Forecasts as well as products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS Header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO Header FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
T.D. just needs a COC.
T.S. needs the COC and 34 knots sustained
Quoting 19. all4hurricanes:

The NHC is pushing the update until the last minute, maybe they are preparing an advisory?


The next regular special outlook is due around 3:00 (any minute now); the issue is whether they are going to just bring the short-term percentages up, based upon recon, or jump the gun to declaring a depression when the wind speeds are still slightly below the sustained wind threshold...................I would wait and just issue a depression advisory later today (not bend the rules).
Quoting 19. all4hurricanes:

The NHC is pushing the update until the last minute, maybe they are preparing an advisory?


Advisories are not initiated with the TWO
Getting a taste of 91L. These incoming showers from the east are from the fringe. Has a sub-tropical feel to it. Not warm, not cold.. Cooled temps from 88F to 71F.
Quoting 4. Camerooski:

Last 4 runs in GFS have shown a Wilma like track, 3 times for a TS hitting FL and once for a Strong TS or Cat 1 (990 mb.) Just Saying...
Hi. Just peeking in but wondering what you are referring too about a Wilma like track ? Not 91L ? Hopefully this will post.
They will not issue advisories unless it is proven that we have a fully closed low. If so, TS/TS watches and warnings will be issued.
Here it is:

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity has become more concentrated with
the area of low pressure located about 450 miles southeast of
Charleston, South Carolina. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is currently investigating the low to determine if
it has acquired a well-defined surface circulation. Environmental
conditions are favorable for this system to become a tropical
cyclone later today or on Saturday while it moves west-northwestward
toward the southeastern United States coast. Interests from Georgia
through North Carolina should monitor the progress of this low.

1. If advisories are not initiated this afternoon, the next Special
Tropical Weather Outlook on this disturbance will be issued by
8 PM EDT this evening. For additional information on this system,
please see High Seas Forecasts as well as products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent


Quoting 27. nash36:

They will not issue advisories unless it is proven that we have a fully closed low. If so, TS/TS watches and warnings will be issued.


They have found west winds, the circulation is closed. To me the issue is the winds being found so far is not enough to support an upgrade. Have yet to see winds at 30mph, but they are still in there flying around.
90/90 at the latest update still but I'm pretty confident we will have a TD or Bonnie by tonight if the trends of the convection trying to wrap around the center continues. Need the low to be closed off completely as well and I think it is real close
Quoting 29. Hurricanes101:



They have found west winds, the circulation is closed. To me the issue is the winds being found so far is not enough to support an upgrade. Have yet to see winds at 30mph, but they are still in there flying around.


Oh... I just got home from work, so I haven't had the chance to see the recon.
Quoting 4. Camerooski:

Last 4 runs in GFS have shown a Wilma like track, 3 times for a TS hitting FL and once for a Strong TS or Cat 1 (990 mb.) Just Saying...


We also call it the Largorooski model...

we sure need some of this
Quoting 25. Skyepony:

Getting a taste of 91L. These incoming showers from the east are from the fringe. Has a sub-tropical feel to it. Not warm, not cold.. Cooled temps from 88F to 71F.

SPC AC 271727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX TO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TEXAS TO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MAINLY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SHOULD
DAMPEN ON D2 AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AN
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE CYCLONE SHOULD TRACK IN A SIMILAR MANNER AND
WEAKEN DURING THE PERIOD. MID/UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL BECOME
PERVASIVE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES TO THE SOUTH OF THE EJECTING
TROUGH. A WAVY DRYLINE SHOULD EXTEND FROM CENTRAL KS TO THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AT PEAK HEATING. THE SOUTHERN PORTION WILL RETREAT WEST
DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS A SURGE OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVANCES NORTHWEST AMID MASS RESPONSE OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM OF AN
UPPER JET OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO.

...MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...
GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY ON THE DEGREE OF BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING SURFACE CYCLONE /FROM UPPER 50S IN THE 00Z
ECMWF TO UPPER 60S IN THE 12Z NAM/. AS SUCH...LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS
IN THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION WHERE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY GREATEST ACROSS EAST IA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF BORDERING
STATES. GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT ON DEPICTING VEER-BACK-VEER WIND
PROFILES WHICH SHOULD LIMIT SUSTENANCE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND
GENERALLY SUPPORT A PREDOMINANT MULTICELL MODE. ISOLATED SEVERE
HAIL/WIND APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

...EDWARDS PLATEAU VICINITY IN WEST-CENTRAL TX...
WITH MODEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS DURING THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE
AND SUBSTANTIAL RETREATING OF THE DRYLINE ON SAT
EVENING...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHETHER A MESOSCALE AREA OF
SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL FORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
CONDITIONALLY IF STORMS FORM...THE SETUP WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES GIVEN STRONG BUOYANCY...STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND
A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT. WILL DEFER TO D1
OUTLOOKS FOR POSSIBLE INTRODUCTION OF SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES.

...COASTAL CAROLINAS...
NHC IS FORECASTING POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL OR
SUB-TROPICAL CYCLONE OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. AT THIS
TIME...CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CORRIDOR OF MODESTLY
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WINDS. AS SUCH...OVERALL TORNADO PROBABILITIES
MAY REMAIN RATHER LIMITED AND SPATIALLY CONFINED. GIVEN WIDE
DISCREPANCIES IN SPATIOTEMPORAL DETAILS OF THIS DISTURBANCE...WILL
DEFER TO D1 OUTLOOKS FOR POSSIBLE LOW TORNADO PROBABILITIES.

..GRAMS.. 05/27/2016
Quoting 32. nash36:



Oh... I just got home from work, so I haven't had the chance to see the recon.


It's all good. They had winds from 30-35mph when they first descended, but all other winds have been under 30mph. That being said, convection started building after they got there, so I am sure they will be patient and fly around for a few more passes to see the winds.
Quoting 33. GeoffreyWPB:



We call it the Largorooski model...

img
Haha I like that name!
Not looking like it will have much trouble fighting off dry air to the West if the Coc co-locates around-near where the current convection is firing:


Quoting 25. Skyepony:

Getting a taste of 91L. These incoming showers from the east are from the fringe. Has a sub-tropical feel to it. Not warm, not cold.. Cooled temps from 88F to 71F.

i would love for it too drop too 71 it feels like 96 here
Quoting 33. GeoffreyWPB:



We call it the Largorooski model...


GFS Friday 00z Model ;)




Just checking in to find that 91L is a closed low. While the convection has been slowly increasing over the "center", IMO it will take at least another 24 hours to 36 hours for this to become TS Bonnie.

The steering currents indicate this system may get a little closer to the NE Florida coast before turning more towards the north.
so just out of curiosity what is creating the dry and stable air aloft in the western carib and the persistent shear?
Quoting 41. GetReal:





Just checking in to find that 91L is a closed low. While the convection has been slowly increasing over the "center", IMO it will take at least another 24 hours to 36 hours for this to become TS Bonnie.

The steering currents indicate this system may get a little closer to the NE Florida coast before turning more towards the north.


My feeling is they will designate this as TD2 this evening, with a chance for it to become Bonnie tomorrow afternoon.
Im getting quite annoyed, I have been a member for a year, and still have no clue how to post a picture... Can someone please help? Thanks, Camerooski also known as "FL WishCaster 2.0"
Quoting 44. Camerooski:

Im getting quite annoyed, I have been a member for a year, and still have no clue how to post a picture... Can someone please help? Thanks, Camerooski also known as "FL WishCaster 2.0"
put your picture web address in that square box next to RICH TEXT and press post comment
Quoting 42. 19N81W:

so just out of curiosity what is creating the dry and stable air aloft in the western carib and the persistent shear?
we don't know its an anomaly
remove the s at the end of https if their is one should be http instead
Am curious to see where Cantore sets up shop this weekend.
careful only too remove the s
Quoting 48. nash36:

Am curious to see where Cantore sets up shop this weekend.
is he coming out have not seen anything yet about him
Quoting 47. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

remove the s at the end of https if their is one should be http instead
yes and I delete the undefined also
Quoting 44. Camerooski:

Im getting quite annoyed, I have been a member for a year, and still have no clue how to post a picture... Can someone please help? Thanks, Camerooski also known as "FL WishCaster 2.0"
You go to the image you're trying to post and click the right side of your mouse and then one of the options should say "copy image url" or "copy image address" (depending on what browser you're using)You click the icon below your quote box that has a small black mountain and sun and put the image url in there and then it should show up.
Quoting 44. Camerooski:

Im getting quite annoyed, I have been a member for a year, and still have no clue how to post a picture... Can someone please help? Thanks, Camerooski also known as "FL WishCaster 2.0"


Copy the URL for the picture, then click on the box icon between the link icon and 'rich text'. A box appears. Delete the text in the box and paste the URL into the box, then click 'OK'.

Some pictures won't allow themselves to be cut and pasted because of copyright.
I always find it interesting (maybe unfortunate would be a better choice in words) when these systems make landfall on a holiday like Memorial Day. Definitely not what business owners want to see on the opening weekend of Summer.
Quoting 51. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

is he coming out have not seen anything yet about him


No idea. I would imagine they're gonna milk this if it gets a name.
Everyone along the Georgia and Carolina borders have a safe weekend; buy your Memorial Day vittles today and tomorrow morning before the weather deteriorates, stay off the wet roads on Saturday evening and Sunday, and hoping that the weather might clear out for Yall by the afternoon on Monday. Will check in over the weekend.
Unbelievable rain gradient, literally follows along the entire stretch of I-10 from Central TX into Louisiana

Quoting 56. nash36:



No idea. I would imagine they're gonna milk this if it gets a name.

yeah
it is the long holiday weekend
if it does something crazy
need too get word out
u know people they will still go too the beach
swimming and BBQ'ing and such
what there is a storm out there
when did that happen
Hey all, just checking in during a busy Friday at work! Looks like a busy day on the blog too! Any idea what we can expect for road conditions early Sunday in the Charleston area? Or is it still far too early for that?
Damn near 20 inches of rain in Washington county NW of Houston. 91L doesn't impress me.
Quoting 58. RitaEvac:

Unbelievable rain gradient, literally follows along the entire stretch of I-10 from Central TX into Louisiana




22.6 inches as the max. With 16+ of that last night. Wow.
Quoting 64. RitaEvac:

Damn near 20 inches of rain in Washington county NW of Houston. 91L doesn't impress me.


My aunt lives down there on the North end of the Loop. She already had terrible flooding there last year. I just told her the potential was there for tonight as well. Models are not handling that complex very well again today just like it didn't last night south of Byron. I would not be surprised to proper Houston area getting a healthy 5" plus tonight. A very bad situation down there developing again yet again...
Quoting 64. RitaEvac:

Damn near 20 inches of rain in Washington county NW of Houston. 91L doesn't impress me.
I don't want to spook you or come off as doom queen but when we had a very wet spring here in the D.C area a hurricane followed that summer.Same thing occured in 2011 and 1996 which were both very rainy springs and then a hurricane came running up the coast.Could possibly be foreshadowing for what could happen down the road.
Quoting 42. 19N81W:

so just out of curiosity what is creating the dry and stable air aloft in the western carib and the persistent shear?


At the moment it's the upper level trof

Btw just about most of the morning and even up till now it's still raining sometimes pouring up here in WB with only a few little minor breaks in rain
Quoting 67. washingtonian115:

I don't want to spook you or come off as doom queen but when we had a very wet spring here in the D.C area a hurricane followed that summer.Same thing occured in 2011 and 1996 which were both very rainy springs and then a hurricane came running up the coast.Could possibly be foreshadowing for what could happen down the road.


I don't want to spook folks either, but we'll probably get tropical systems into TX this year.
Ten points to weathermanwannabe for excellent use of the word "vittles".

AF307 Mission #01 into INVEST
Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: In Storm

As of 19:40 UTC May 27, 2016:
Aircraft Position: 28.72°N 73.87°W
Bearing: 63° at 242 kt
Altitude: 325 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 31 kt at 145°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A



Maybe at 5, they'll do it. They dont issue advisories at the TWO.
Check your blog Aqua
As long as 91L continues to generate thunderstorms over its center, it'll close off the LLC and will likely do so soon based off the recon obs.

AF307 Mission #01 into INVEST
Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: In Storm

As of 19:50 UTC May 27, 2016:
Aircraft Position: 29.13°N 73.42°W
Bearing: 27° at 262 kt
Altitude: 327 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 31 kt at 131°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A



Quoting 65. daddyjames:



22.6 inches as the max. With 16+ of that last night. Wow.
Serious situation starting to come about in Houston now. Front along which tstorms have been training all day just north of Harris county is now very slowly sagging southward INTO Harris county. Heavy rain up here in the Kingwood area right now, no let up in sight. And we're right on the edge of starting holiday get-out-of-town traffic rush hours. Not good at all !
Quoting 77. CybrTeddy:

As long as 91L continues to generate thunderstorms over its center, it'll close off the LLC and will likely do so soon based off the recon obs.

I think the low is closed now they've record winds from all direction except due west and I think thats more because they haven't sampled north of the center
Quoting 44. Camerooski:

Im getting quite annoyed, I have been a member for a year, and still have no clue how to post a picture... Can someone please help? Thanks, Camerooski also known as "FL WishCaster 2.0"


Right click on the image and copy its address:



Click the image button under the comment box and insert the url:



And then click post comment.
Jim's predictions at hurricanecity.com Link
NHC Atlantic Ops @NHC_Atlantic 8s8 seconds ago
NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Two at 5 pm EDT/2100 UTC. This will include a TS Warning for the South Carolina coast.
If someone doesn't mind, enlighten me...



1) 91L seems more like a wave than a developing TD, yes it has a closed COC but not very...circular..

2) This COULD appear so to me because it's as if theres another system trying to form directly to the south of 91L..or is that just how the clouds look?
Also note that when using some browsers (mine at least) https links don't work when inserting images. I have to remove the "s" before posting then everything works.
(Edit : I just saw that Keeper posted about it just before)
NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Two at 5 pm EDT/2100 UTC. This will include a TS Warning for the South Carolina coast.
We have TD2 now
Tropical Depression Two advisories starting at 5 PM!
I wonder what the predictions will be. I think it will become a low end tropical storm ~ 50 mph winds.
Quoting 77. CybrTeddy:

As long as 91L continues to generate thunderstorms over its center, it'll close off the LLC and will likely do so soon based off the recon obs.


LLC is closed, recon found west winds
Quoting 84. TropicalAnalystwx13:




Hehe, Codfish got beat. ;)

Anyway, TS watches/warnings will likely replace gale warnings already in place. [Link]

edit: hehe maybe not
We have TD 02 NHC to initiate advisories at 5pm. Bonnie will be here soon
man the pumps a wall of water on the way



Queue mad dash to MaxWeather's blog to add a storm to your seasonal guess prediction.
Quoting 92. win1gamegiantsplease:

Cody always wins the race. Tortoise and the hare is a load of rubbish.

Anyway, TS watches/warnings will likely replace gale warnings already in place. [Link]

Nah, I was busy instructing and got beat by Hurricane1216. He got lucky. :P
Likely will be a 30mph TD. There is nothing showing winds of 35mph. Convection is not really holding too well either. I guess this is getting designated, but it is still borderline to me.
Game on....

Incidentally, the grocery store was a zoo a few mins ago. Combine holiday weekend with a landfalling system, and look out.
Looks like we have a vortex data message from aircraft reconnaissance to supplement our soon to be designated Tropical Depression Two:

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 20:09Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5307
Mission Purpose: Investigate first suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 12
A. Time of Center Fix: 27th day of the month at 19:25:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°12'N 74°28'W (28.2N 74.4667W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 26kts (~ 29.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 35 nautical miles (40 statute miles) to the WSW (251°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 1° at 22kts (From the N at ~ 25.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 36 nautical miles (41 statute miles) to the W (266°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1012mb (29.89 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 303m (994ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 304m (997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration and Wind
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical miles
Invest 91L
As of 18:00 UTC May 27, 2016:


Location: 28.2°N 74.2°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1014 mb
Radius of Circulation: 110 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 50 NM
Special Message from NHC: NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Two at 5 pm EDT/2100 UTC. This will include a TS Warning for the South Carolina coast.
I know someone will come on later and say that the NHC is padding numbers for NOAA.You can count on it.

Tornado Warning for Yuma County, CO







From 2:13pm MDT, Fri May 27 until 2:45pm MDT, Fri May 27


Issued by The National Weather Service

Goodland, KS

2:13pm MDT, Fri May 27


TORNADO WARNING FROM 2:13PM MDT FRI UNTIL 2:45PM MDT FRI

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTH CENTRAL YUMA COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...

* UNTIL 245 PM MDT

* AT 213 PM MDT... A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 16 MILES WEST OF BONNY RESERVOIR... MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD... TORNADO AND HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER.

SOURCE... WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED FUNNEL CLOUD.

IMPACT... FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS... WINDOWS... AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL YUMA COUNTY. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS... IN A MOBILE HOME... OR IN A VEHICLE... MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
TD 2 now up
T.C.F.W
02L/TD/XX/CX
000
URNT12 KNHC 272009
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL912016
A. 27/19:25:10Z
B. 28 deg 12 min N
074 deg 28 min W
C. NA
D. 26 kt
E. 251 deg 35 nm
F. 001 deg 22 kt
G. 266 deg 36 nm
H. EXTRAP 1012 mb
I. 21 C / 303 m
J. 23 C / 304 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 13 / 1
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF307 01AAA INVEST OB 12
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 33 KT 048 / 72 NM 19:48:20Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
;
107. IDTH
Interesting. Looking at the NOAA map, wouldn't this be a positive AMO?


Special Message from NHC Issued 27 May 2016 20:07 UTC
NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Two at 5 pm EDT/2100 UTC. This will include a TS Warning for the South Carolina coast.


Looks like we'll have TS Bonnie by 5PM EST today.
Quoting 108. birdsrock2016:



Special Message from NHC Issued 27 May 2016 20:07 UTC
NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Two at 5 pm EDT/2100 UTC. This will include a TS Warning for the South Carolina coast.


Looks like we'll have TS Bonnie by 5PM EST today.

just a depression no name yet not that
that matters
I think it's funny 12 people posted we now have T.D. #2
Quoting 111. Sfloridacat5:

I think it's funny 12 people posted we now have T.D. #2


Just wait until the 5pm comes out.

It will be posted 298 times. Lol.
Quoting 112. nash36:



Just wait until the 5pm comes out.

It will be posted 298 times. Lol.


Where's Taz? He usually tells you that its "old news" when something has already been posted. Have to love that.
Quoting 64. RitaEvac:

Damn near 20 inches of rain in Washington county NW of Houston. 91L doesn't impress me.


Just the last year -
May 15, 2016
Deweyville, Texas, Completely Cut Off by Record-Breaking Floodwaters; Mandatory Evacuations Ordered
Upwards of 18 inches of rain fell in the Sabine River Basin from a weather system that lingered over the area for five days.
Link


'Unprecedented': 5 Dead as Record Rainfall Floods Houston

Apr 18 2016,
More than a foot of rain deluged parts of Houston on Monday,
Link

Record flooding swamps Texas, Louisiana, Miss.
March 14, 2016
The flooding is the result of a slow-moving storm that dumped up to two feet of rain on the region last week
Link

Torrential rain -- up to 20 inches in spots -- pummels much of Texas
Sat October 24, 2015
Link

2015 Texas–Oklahoma flood and tornado outbreak

Preceded by more than a week of heavy rain, a slow-moving storm system dropped tremendous precipitation across much of Texas and Oklahoma during the nights of May 24–26, 2015, triggering record-breaking floods.

Link
So, we now have TD 2. When will the forecast cone come out from the NHC so that we can officially tell where it will be headed?
Do you all smell that?

That's the smell of F5 keys from all over the world burning from the friction. Lol.
Quoting 115. birdsrock2016:

So, we now have TD 2. When will the forecast cone come out from the NHC so that we can officially tell where it will be headed?


5pm advisory.
45 mph peak predicted from NHC
Thanks, Nash 36. I'll be looking forward to seeing what TD 2's maximum intensity will be . I've heard that it will only be a weak TS, but I think it might be towards the stronger end with it being able to tap into the warm Gulf Stream waters.
73. Patrap

That spaghetti plot is one ugly bowl of pasta.
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 32.8N 80.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
Tropical Depression TWO
...SECOND TROPICAL CYCLONE OF THE SEASON FORMS OFF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...
5:00 PM EDT Fri May 27
Location: 28.5°N 74.7°W
Moving: WNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
Quoting 119. birdsrock2016:

Thanks, Nash 36. I'll be looking forward to seeing what TD 2's maximum intensity will be . I've heard that it will only be a weak TS, but I think it might be towards the stronger end with it being able to tap into the warm Gulf Stream waters.


That's the unknown. Neither mets, nor models have a great handle on intensity, though I feel this forecast is pretty safe.


Looking good! Imagine if this was in August.... Sign of things to come perhaps?
The NAM has been pretty consistent developing a second low in a few days. This is not T.D.2 but a new low.
Awww..my first cone of the 2016 Hurricane season..

Neven seems to be getting freaked out, and he's one measured fellow -

ASI 2016 update 1: both sides

May 27th 2016

After an unprecedented warm winter and an unprecedented early opening of the Beaufort Sea, the 2016 melting season isn't showing any signs of shrugging off the 'unprecedented' label. What has struck me most so far, is that unprecedented things have been happening on both the Pacific and Atlantic side of the Arctic.

I've been closely observing events in the Arctic for almost a decade now, and have been writing about them since 2010, and during that time I have gotten used to this sort of see-saw, where fast melting on one side of the Arctic would be compensated by events unfolding slowly on the other side of the Arctic. But this year is different. This year the ice pack is under attack on both sides of the Arctic.


Link
Something creepy happened with my Personal weather station. The pressure on the system(TD2) is 1009 MB , but in South Florida(Boca Raton,FL) our Barometric pressure dropped from 1015 MB to 1011MB even though we are really far away from TD 2. Could this possibly be because of TD 2?
And here come the bozos
Levi Cowan-> "By the way, watch W. Carib in long-range. When upper trough leaves, trade wind surge comes from east => convergence"
Adrian Linares--> "GFS long-range continues to show a cyclone into #Florida from the Western Caribbean. Pattern favorable"
The trolls have come out to play today..and its only May...Anyway...

Camerooski here's some more truth to that post
Joe Bastardi %u200F@BigJoeBastardi 7h7 hours ago Pennsylvania, USA
euro day 10 pattern says next area to watch will be gulf as cool Texas and high pressure similar to Bill set up
Wow! Im in Wilmington NC and thats a little close for comfort.
Multi-Day ‘Siege of Storms’ Follows Exxon Shareholder Meeting

A multi-day siege of severe thunderstorms morphed into a major flash flood event in parts of Texas, Kansas, and other states late Thursday into Friday, and more severe weather is expected into Friday night. — Weather Underground.

Link
142. xcool
I seeing a busy year yep imo
Quoting 136. birdsrock2016:

Something creepy happened with my Personal weather station. The pressure on the system(TD2) is 1009 MB , but in South Florida(Boca Raton,FL) our Barometric pressure dropped from 1015 MB to 1011MB even though we are really far away from TD 2. Could this possibly be because of TD 2?


Miami International Airport
Mostly Cloudy
85°F
29°C
Humidity 61%
Wind Speed E 18 G 22 mph
Barometer 29.92 in (1013.3 mb)
Dewpoint 70°F (21°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 90°F (32°C)
Last update 27 May 4:53 pm EDT
Quoting 139. washingtonian115:

The trolls have come out to play today..and its only May...Anyway...

Camerooski here's some more truth to that post
Joe Bastardi %u200F@BigJoeBastardi 7h7 hours ago Pennsylvania, USA
euro day 10 pattern says next area to watch will be gulf as cool Texas and high pressure similar to Bill set up
Gonna be a fun, busy year!

120 N.M East of Cape Canaveral...
NDBC
Location: 28.903N 78.464W
Date: Fri, 27 May 2016 20:20:00 UTC
Winds: NE (50°) at 15.5 kt gusting to 17.5 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.99 in
Air Temperature: 77.5 F
Dew Point: 71.4 F
Water Temperature: 78.4 F
Yeah, and he's not the only one... I am too, and some of the people at the Arctic Sea Ice Forum seem to be as well.

Quoting 130. RobertWC:

Neven seems to be getting freaked out, and he's one measured fellow -

ASI 2016 update 1: both sides

May 27th 2016

After an unprecedented warm winter and an unprecedented early opening of the Beaufort Sea, the 2016 melting season isn't showing any signs of shrugging off the 'unprecedented' label. What has struck me most so far, is that unprecedented things have been happening on both the Pacific and Atlantic side of the Arctic.

I've been closely observing events in the Arctic for almost a decade now, and have been writing about them since 2010, and during that time I have gotten used to this sort of see-saw, where fast melting on one side of the Arctic would be compensated by events unfolding slowly on the other side of the Arctic. But this year is different. This year the ice pack is under attack on both sides of the Arctic.


Link
Quoting 139. washingtonian115:

The trolls have come out to play today..and its only May...
That's nothing,wait until August & September.
Eric Blake
‏@EricBlake12
For ~3 days Ecmwf ensemble has been showing a broad low in the NW Carib in the 11-15- now shows up on day 10- hmm :)
The name Bonnie has been used 6 times in the Atlantic.

4 of witch made landfall in the US..









Could we see another?
Quoting 136. birdsrock2016:

Something creepy happened with my Personal weather station. The pressure on the system(TD2) is 1009 MB , but in South Florida(Boca Raton,FL) our Barometric pressure dropped from 1015 MB to 1011MB even though we are really far away from TD 2. Could this possibly be because of TD 2?


it may have to do with the trough of low pressure moving in conjunction with TD2
Looks like tornadic activity near Beaumont.
Quoting 149. hurricanefishfla:

I like bozos.


But their clown cars always take up 2 parking spaces .
There she blows Captain! Here to get the obligatory start of the season post out of the way, and what do you know the start of the season is brewing up by my neck of the woods. I'd say it feels like the first time, but that would be a lie cause we were at this same situation like a year or two ago. o-O Stay safe ladies and gentlemen, let's hope for a glorious season of beautiful fish storms.
Just north and northwest of Houston ... This has been the most prolonged line of thunderstorms remaining in one location that I have seen. It has been over 24 hours now. Brenham doubled their annual precip yesterday with over 16 inches and the rain is still just north of me. Barely a drop for me.
Quoting 152. JrWeathermanFL:

The name Bonnie has been used 6 times in the Atlantic.

4 of witch made landfall in the US..









Could we see another?
Yes,and maybe one Bonnie every year.
Quoting 150. washingtonian115:

Eric Blake
‏@EricBlake12
For ~3 days Ecmwf ensemble has been showing a broad low in the NW Carib in the 11-15- now shows up on day 10- hmm :)


11-15 days = transparent ghost
10 days = translucent ghost
5 days = lock and load!
Quoting 151. MrTornadochase:


If you read the blog you will find out otherwise. All of the predictions are for a near to above average season. If La Niña develops shear will be low even if it doesn't it'll likely be much lower than last year and what makes you think dry air will be a problem this year? There hasn't been much talk about it every my a problem


An average of all the "pros" compared to averages across seasons (numbers given in blog) gives:
14 named storms compared to 12
7 hurricanes compared to 6
3 majors compared to 3

Definitely a (very sightly above) average season
Quoting 155. RobertWC:



But their clown cars always take up 2 parking spaces .


No, only half-a-space. But don't get stuck behind them in the valet parking line.
Quoting 128. ncstorm:

Awww..my first cone of the 2016 Hurricane season..


I'm so happy to see your cone.You are the best.
Before it gets crazy around here, Hi Everyone!! Back for another season of lurking! Nice to see all the familiar handles.
Later everyone..

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 4h4 hours ago

If you are in state that doesn't end with Carolina, then your tropical storm forecast and holiday planning is very easy = Sunscreen.

This is the 2 day doppler rain est. Northwest of Houston , as the next wave slowly moves South.

Link
Quoting 150. washingtonian115:

Eric Blake
‏@EricBlake12
For ~3 days Ecmwf ensemble has been showing a broad low in the NW Carib in the 11-15- now shows up on day 10- hmm :)


Same with the 12Z GFS. 18Z is beginning to load.
Quoting 164. ncstorm:

Later everyone..

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 4h4 hours ago

If you are in state that doesn't end with Carolina, then your tropical storm forecast and holiday planning is very easy = Sunscreen.


That's a fairly broad statement, wish he would tighten up Carolina covers such a wide range of states.
Quoting 161. daddyjames:



No, only half-a-space. But don't get stuck behind them in the valet parking line.

Or check out counters, TSA lines, the 5th grade, or the polling booth.
Quoting 167. CloudyWithAChance:

That's a fairly broad statement, wish he would tighten up Carolina covers such a wide range of states.



Look at forecast track map. Im in SENC and this thing could easily stay over water and do who knows what. I say that because ive bought that T shirt many times.
I'm here near Charleston, SC bracing for impact lol. Maybe it will ram up to a moderate tropical storm before landfall.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
The Beast has laid down , for now , A clear shot yesterday -

SNPP/VIIRS
2016/147
05/26/2016
19:55 UTC

Fort McMurray Wildfire, Alberta


Link
174. vis0

Good Morning