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Tropical/Subtropical Depression Could Form Today in Northwest Atlantic

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 3:50 PM GMT on May 27, 2016

Formation of a tropical or subtropical depression appears imminent on Friday or Saturday in the waters between the Bahamas and Bermuda as Invest 91L moves west-northwest or northwest towards the Southeast U.S. coast. Should it become a named storm, it would be called Bonnie.

Satellite loops show that 91L has a pronounced spin near the surface that has improved in organization since Thursday--the circulation is less elongated, and more circular. However, there was only a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that was not changing much in areal coverage associated with 91L on Friday morning. The latest pass from the ASCAT satellite showed an area of surface winds near 35 mph in the heaviest thunderstorms to the north of the center. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) near 91L's center were about 26°C (79°F), which is 1 - 2°C (1.8 - 3.6°F) above average. These waters are only marginally warm enough to support formation of a tropical storm, and 91L has taken on some characteristics of subtropical system instead of a tropical system. As I explain in my Subtropical Storm Tutorial, a subtropical storm typically has a large, cloud free center of circulation, with very heavy thunderstorm activity in a band removed at least 100 miles from the center. The difference between a subtropical storm and a tropical storm is not that important as far as the winds they can generate, but tropical storms generate more rain.

Wind shear on Friday morning had fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, increasing the odds of development. A large area of dry continental air lies to the west of 91L, and this dry air is interfering with development. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 91L on Friday afternoon.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of 91L.


Figure 2. Predicted wind speeds for the Southeast U.S. at 2 am EDT (06Z) Sunday, May 29, 2016 from the 00Z Friday, May 27 runs of the European model (left) and GFS model (right). Both models had the storm just off the coast of South Carolina. Image constructed using our wundermap with the "Model Data" layer turned on.

A heavy rain threat for the Southeast U.S. coast
The 12Z (8 am EDT) Friday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would stay generally in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, for the next five days, which should allow some slow development of 91L. On Friday and Saturday, 91L will be traversing waters of 25 - 26°C (77 - 79°F), which should be just warm enough to allow development. The storm may get a small boost when it crosses the axis of the warm Gulf Stream current on Saturday afternoon. The system will have trouble with the large area of dry air to its west; if wind shear remains in the moderate range, 91L may have difficulty moistening its inner core enough to wall off this dry air. In their Friday morning (00Z) runs, our three top models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis--the American GFS model, the European ECMWF model, and the British UKMET model--all showed the potential for Invest 91L to develop into a tropical or subtropical depression on Friday or Saturday. In a special Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 7:45 am EDT Friday, the National Hurricane Center bumped up their development odds in the 2-day and 5-day time ranges to 90%.

The models are not very gung-ho about intensifying 91L, and the system will have too little time over water to become anything stronger than a 55-mph tropical storm. Thus, heavy rain is the main concern from this system. Heavy rains should reach the coasts of South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina on Saturday afternoon or evening--though the heaviest rains from 91L will likely stay out sea to the storm's east, in a large band of heavy rain typical for a subtropical system. The Friday morning runs of our two top models for hurricane tracking, the GFS and European models, showed the center of 91L reaching the central coast of South Carolina near Charleston early Sunday morning or late Sunday afternoon, respectively. Steering currents will shift on Sunday evening, as 91L gets caught in the circulation associated with a trough of low pressure passing to the north, forcing 91L to turn to the northeast. The center of 91L will likely track inland along the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina on Monday and Tuesday, spreading heavy rains of 2 - 4" along its path. It is uncertain at this time whether or not 91L will be able to spread heavy rains farther north into Virginia later in the week.

We'll have a post later today analyzing the annual NOAA seasonal hurricane forecast, which will be released late this morning.


Figure 3. A large area of rains exceeding 10” fell between Austin and Houston between 7:00 am CDT Thursday, May 26, and Friday, May 27, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.

From tornadoes to torrents: Rain records inundated in Texas
A large chunk of the upper-level low that lingered over the western U.S. most of this week began pushing onto the Southern and Central Plains on Thursday, triggering widespread severe weather. As opposed to the isolated, tornado-generating supercells earlier in the week, Thursday’s severe storms were far more widespread, but competition between the many storms helped cut down the ability of any one cell to become a cyclic tornado-producer. NOAA/SPC logged a preliminary total of 19 tornado reports on Thursday in Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado, Kansas, and Missouri, with no serious injuries or major damage reported. The highest-impact scare was at Kansas City International Airport, where passengers were herded from the three main terminals into tunnels and parking garages during a 20-minute evacuation. Near Dodge City, KS—not far from where multiple tornadoes struck on Tuesday—hail as large as softballs pelted an area south and east of Clark State Lake on Thursday evening.

Rain-cooled air from the Central and Southern Plains finally pushed back an incredibly rich southerly feed of low-level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico that had fueled severe weather all week. Shunted into Texas, the moisture fed several mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) that produced torrential rain on Thursday afternoon into Friday morning, especially between the Austin and Houston areas. The town of Brenham racked up an amazing calendar-day total of 16.62”, obliterating its previous record of 10.38” from October 17, 1994. Most of that rain fell in a 12-hour period from noon to midnight. All by itself, Thursday’s total would rank as the fourth wettest month in Brenham’s history, and it is larger than May's monthly record of 15.09” from May 2015 (the wettest month by far in state history). Weather records in Brenham extend back to 1897. The heavy rains led to several high-water rescues in the Austin and Bryan areas, and two people were missing as of Friday morning, according to weather.com. Flash flood warnings continued through noon CDT Friday just east of Austin, where 6” to 10” of rain had reportedly fallen. More heavy rain is possible across southern Texas with additional MCS development later on Friday and Saturday.

Overall, the severe weather threat will continue dropping through the Memorial Day weekend, as both vertical wind shear and instability will be much less favorable for supercell formation. However, with a still-respectable amount of low-level moisture in place, there will be plenty of showers and thunderstorms across the central states, making for a damp-at-times Memorial Day weekend from Texas to Minnesota and Wisconsin. Long-range models suggest that heavy rain may recur through next week in some areas, Texas in particular.

Jeff Masters (tropical), Bob Henson (severe)


Figure 4. Projected 5-day rainfall totals from 12Z (8:00 am EDT) Friday, May 27, through 12Z Wednesday, June 1, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center

Hurricane Flood Severe Weather Extreme Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

AF307 Mission #01 into INVEST
Type: Unknown | Status: En Route

As of 15:40 UTC May 27, 2016:
Aircraft Position: 30.55°N 84.27°W
Bearing: 90° at 310 kt
Altitude: 8005 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 11 kt at 16°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A



Post from previous blog entry before page refresh/new blog entry:

I live just East outside of Pflugerville, TX about 25 NE of downtown Austin. The initial supercell that stagnated over the area rapidly intensified unlike any storm I've seen in the seven years I've lived in the area. To say the light show that we had last night was amazing would be an understatement. I would love to see a cumulative lighting strike count for the four or five hours the system was in place. I'm guessing between fifty and one hundred thousand strikes. What is mind blowing is that in my area we received between a quarter and a half an inch of rain, yet 15 miles to the South East, some places received 12" plus. Further to the East, some locations received as much as 17 inches in just a few hours time.

Quoting 625. daddyjames:



16 inches of rain in some locations in Texas last night. Training of thunderstorms over the same area all night long essentially.
Thank You Both. Pending confirmation from recon later today, I am thinking that the current LLC is located at about 28N-74W to the East of Cape Kennedy:




TSR has released their updated hurricane forecast
17NS,9H,4M. ACE:130
91L looking exactly like it was expected to:


It's starting to (rock n') roll. I hope it won't be able to intensify too much later on. I Expect more symmetry vorticity and convection as the shear seems quite low now. A rainmaker is coming, that could also strike upper than forecast along the coast. I took 91L rather lightly in the last 2 days, but it looks like it could overperform the models. The NHC was definitely on a real lead.
(By the way, thanks for the subtrop. cyclone tutorial, Jeff. It was also a very good read)
06z HWRF holding strong with the idea of a moderate tropical storm.

Quoting 2. calkevin77:

Post from previous blog entry before page refresh/new blog entry:

I live just East outside of Pflugerville, TX about 25 NE of downtown Austin. The initial supercell that stagnated over the area rapidly intensified unlike any storm I've seen in the seven years I've lived in the area. To say the light show that we had last night was amazing would be an understatement. I would love to see a cumulative lighting strike count for the four or five hours the system was in place. I'm guessing between fifty and one hundred thousand strikes. What is mind blowing is that in my area we received between a quarter and a half an inch of rain, yet 15 miles to the South East, some places received 12" plus. Further to the East, some locations received as much as 17 inches in just a few hours time.

Quoting 625. daddyjames:



16 inches of rain in some locations in Texas last night. Training of thunderstorms over the same area all night long essentially.


You know I have experienced 20+ inches of rain spread out over 36-48 hours. 16 inches of rain in the span of one evening, that is absolutely amazing.

Sorry to hear about the 2 folks missing. :(
The current winds 120 nm East of the Cape out of the NE confirm the broad cyclonic flow; have to see if the Hunters can find higher winds near the LLC to be able to declare a tropical depression this afternoon:

NDBC
Location: 28.903N 78.464W
Date: Fri, 27 May 2016 15:20:00 UTC
Winds: NE (40°) at 15.5 kt gusting to 17.5 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.06 in
Air Temperature: 77.0 F
Dew Point: 70.3 F
Water Temperature: 77.9 F
Who knows what they might find.Remember we can't base it off looks.Bertha looked a hot mess and the HH managed to find a hurricane.The some thing happened with Fay that same year and Cristobal.
Who else Thinks of The FNAF Character when you hear Bonnie at the first time?

(Cuz Everytime I ask, I get that.)
Quoting 5. CybrTeddy:

91L looking exactly like it was expected to:




What a mess

Quoting 12. Famoguy1234:

Who else Thinks of The FNAF Character when you hear Bonnie at the first time?

(Cuz Everytime I ask, I get that.)


Bonnie reminds me strictly of hurricanes. One that hit us in 98 and TS Bonnie made landfall in Florida in the same 24 hour span that Charley did in 04. What is FNAF anyway?
Earth Atmo 2.0 continues to deliver.



Unfortunate update regarding those in Texas and the flooding:

2 People Dead in Floods as Storms Sweep Central Texas

And 1 additional person is still missing.
Still thinking that 91L will just turn out as a "bad day at the beach" later Saterday into Sunday with a good soaking inland and minor/localized flooding possible. If it continues to be boardline TD/TS upon approach, NHC may issue TS warnings. "What could be" Bonnie will not have much of an impact on South/North Carolina.

Good news is that Saturday may be fine weather for a beach day!
Quoting 7. CybrTeddy:

06z HWRF holding strong with the idea of a moderate tropical storm.




If we do get a Tropical Storm it will be the big winner, because it's the only model really predicting any kind of decent development.
12Z GFS - currently - not show much development
Quoting 3. weathermanwannabe:

Thank You Both. Pending confirmation from recon later today, I am thinking that the current LLC is located at about 28N-74W to the East of Cape Kennedy:







Yep. That appears to be the COC. If it can moisten up its west side and wrap that convection (big if), it should be able to obtain TS status. We'll see how it evolves.
Dr. Masters is one of the best in the business in term of extrapolating data and providing very accurate impact analysis downstream which is why so many folks (including some in emergency management) view his Blog entries when a tropical storm is threatening a populated region of the US to get an idea of what to expect.

The models are not very gung-ho about intensifying 91L, and the system will have too little time over water to become anything stronger than a 55-mph tropical storm. Thus, heavy rain is the main concern from this system. Heavy rains should reach the coasts of South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina on Saturday afternoon or evening-


We should be thankful that this will be a weak system, and a good wake up call for those in hurricane alley as to the start of the season, as compared to the type of storms that we might see threaten the US in September and October.
ok little fella lets put on a nice show for the people


T.C.F.A.
91L/INV/XX/CX
if it fails to blossom this afternoon into early evening this little guy might just be done
Some damage from violent thunderstorms in Western France too, right now. Large hail, downbursts, possible tornado, lots of downed trees reported in Charentes region. At least one vineyard's harvest has been destroyed by hail, the owner is quite distressed about it. Thunderstorms going on with a few isolated larger cells, moving east and also turning strong in other parts of France.
- A large part of Europe is under watch/warnings except the Mediterranean sea area. Bulgaria suffered from locally crippling flash floods two days ago, situation was declared "unprecedented" there by locals, with several bridges destroyed, roads flooded, dozens homes too, etc. Lots of lightning strikes over Europe since yesterday. More at my blog, and Barbamz' too, who reported here before about this. A few hours ago in Charentes :


- 91L : what says recon ?
(knock, knock, knock) Bonnie? (knock, knock, knock) Bonnie? (knock, knock, knock) Bonnie? sigh....not yet
Quoting 6. 999Ai2016:


It's starting to (rock n') roll. I hope it won't be able to intensify too much later on. I Expect more symmetry vorticity and convection as the shear seems quite low now. A rainmaker is coming, that could also strike upper than forecast along the coast. I took 91L rather lightly in the last 2 days, but it looks like it could overperform the models. The NHC was definitely on a real lead.
(By the way, thanks for the subtrop. cyclone tutorial, Jeff. It was also a very good read)

Starting to look better.
It's gaining latitude fairly rapidly which is a good thing and it will probably gain a little speed tomorrow; hopefully a quick and short visit to the US Coast. Will be interesting to see, as noted by Dr. M, as to how much of a bump it might get crossing the Gulf Stream tomorrow:






And here is current shear per CIMMS as of 11:00 am EST:



Quoting 4. tiggerhurricanes2001:

TSR has released their updated hurricane forecast
17NS,9H,4M. ACE:130
I went with 15/9/5..Looks like conditions will be conducive for development.
Convection beginning to fire over the swirl, visible loop.
Hey guys sorry for not being much on here last two days I wanted to but I was out doing a large scale mass cas training exercise on Wed and hurricane season emergency ops training during the night and yesterday and last night

Anyway I changed my mind very early morning about our invest 91L I then thought the chances of this system becoming a TD/TS or STD/STS are higher and this morning I now say this could indeed become a TD or TS or STD/STS during the next 3/6-32/48hrs intensity wise I'm gonna go with really low intensity
They recorded a 40kt Gust near the storm...
Quoting 30. nrtiwlnvragn:

Convection beginning to fire over the swirl, visible loop.
well got too start somewhere lets see what it can do don't think it will be anything too extreme its got a lot going for it and a few things against it so we shall see soon
Little jog or turn towards the northwest.
Quoting 34. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

well got too start somewhere lets see what it can do don't think it will be anything too extreme its got a lot going for it and a few things against it so we shall see soon


I'm thinking Tropical Storm as it approaches The Carolinas.
It's beginning to (very slight) moisten up on the western flank. That's the ballgame right there. If it can't build some sort of a moisture shied as it goes face-first in to the dry air, there's a pretty good chance it will only be an open wave.
Quoting 35. Sfloridacat5:

Little jog or turn towards the northwest.



The decrease in sheer is visibly evident
Quoting 37. nash36:

It's beginning to (very slight) moisten up on the western flank. That's the ballgame right there. If it can't build some sort of a moisture shied as it goes face-first in to the dry air, there's a pretty good chance it will only be an open wave.
or a naked tropical swirl
Quoting 36. nrtiwlnvragn:



I'm thinking Tropical Storm as it approaches The Carolinas.


My thinking, as long as it can find a way to overcome the dry air, is no more than a 40kt TS. We live inland from Charleston by about 19 miles. Looks like instead of grilling in the backyard, I'll be pulling out the smoker and opening the garage.
Quoting 29. jlp09550:




Is the system under 91L the same one the CMC had brushing the OBX last night?
Coming out of my dark shadow to say quick hello to every one for 2016 Hurricane Season. TIA for every thing I will learn this year. Always like the differnt opinions plus I get more solid info than any where else on the web. Great laughs in the off time to. So lets go have a good start to Hurricane Season 2016. Back to my usual lurk mode now.
Quoting 3. weathermanwannabe:

Thank You Both. Pending confirmation from recon later today, I am thinking that the current LLC is located at about 28N-74W to the East of Cape Kennedy:






Cape Kennedy is a loaded term around those parts. Cape Canaveral please lol
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cape_Canaveral#Name _changes
44. 7544
hello everyone looks like 91 is trying hard to have a twin further south ?
Quoting 40. nash36:



My thinking, as long as it can find a way to overcome the dry air, is no more than a 40kt TS. We live inland from Charleston by about 19 miles. Looks like instead of grilling in the backyard, I'll be pulling out the smoker and opening the garage.


GFDL does not indicate a lot of rain, but is does fall over the weekend. Maybe Monday will be good.


Quoting 36. nrtiwlnvragn:



I'm thinking Tropical Storm as it approaches The Carolinas.
perhaps not really sure what it is going to do but nothing more than a tropical storm and a rain make after touchdown appears the choice only if it builds a good central convective mass and its trying
so what was the consensus on when we will get some rain....I see a thin line on westbay road and perhaps parts of westbay getting daytime heating stuff but no where else.
I just got in today and have noticed a changed in the upper level winds mind you......but 32/23 at 11am and winds out of the se at 15 mph uggg

Quoting 32. wunderkidcayman:

Hey guys sorry for not being much on here last two days I wanted to but I was out doing a large scale mass cas training exercise on Wed and hurricane season emergency ops training during the night and yesterday and last night

Anyway I changed my mind very early morning about our invest 91L I then thought the chances of this system becoming a TD/TS or STD/STS are higher and this morning I now say this could indeed become a TD or TS or STD/STS during the next 3/6-32/48hrs intensity wise I'm gonna go with really low intensity
91L looks unimpressive today.
A certain candidate (to remain unnamed) is talking about "opening up the water" so that farmers can survive in California. I wonder where exactly that water would come from?
Let's see how well 91L does now that it's about to be west of 75W. High cloud motions show a considerable decrease in vertical shear there, and for one convection is firing close to the center without it being immediately sheared off.
Quoting 49. chrisdscane:

91L looks unimpressive today.
It looks very good actually, just needs more thunderstorms that's all.
91L needs to have more thunderstorms to protect her or dry air might very well kill it or at the very least prevent more developemnt
Quoting 49. chrisdscane:

91L looks unimpressive today.


Given the less-than-thrilling conditions it has to deal with, it's actually not doing too bad. It is basically what we figured it would be; a broad circulation, with a moisture envelope that is attempting to consolidate around the core.
Quoting 51. KoritheMan:

Let's see how well 91L does now that it's about to be west of 75W. High cloud motions show a considerable decrease in vertical shear there, and for one convection is firing close to the center without it being immediately sheared off.


It's beginning to, yes. If it can continue to do so, we'll have a TS tomorrow. If not, we'll have a chewed up soup-sandwich.
Quoting 50. daddyjames:

A certain candidate (to remain unnamed) is talking about "opening up the water" so that farmers can survive in California. I wonder where exactly that water would come from?
no problem we can start draining the grt lakes and start a water pipeline project too boost the economy and lower food prices by sending all the water they can take
Quoting 50. daddyjames:

A certain candidate (to remain unnamed) is talking about "opening up the water" so that farmers can survive in California. I wonder where exactly that water would come from?
Tears of the American people...
Quoting 55. nash36:



It's beginning to, yes. If it can continue to do so, we'll have a TS tomorrow. If not, we'll have a chewed up soup-sandwich.
I don't mind soup and a sandwich I like campbells chicken noodle or rice and tuna for choice of sandwich albacore tuna the good stuff solid white
Quoting 43. gator23:


Cape Kennedy is a loaded term around those parts. Cape Canaveral please lol
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cape_Canaveral#Name _changes


Yea, hasn't been known as "Cape Kennedy" since 1973.
The Bermuda Triangle region has really been the hot spot lately for development. Interesting that our 1st system near the U.S. (2nd overall) this season is in the same region.

Here's last year
Not exactly sure how to say this, but conditions in general already look far better than they have in years (in the Atlantic).
Quoting 59. CybrTeddy:



Yea, hasn't been known as "Cape Kennedy" since 1973.


maybe she meant Kennedy Space Center. They are close by
Quoting 52. HurricaneAndre:

It looks very good actually, just needs more thunderstorms that's all.


Not having the thunderstorms is why it doesn't look impressive right now. I suspect we'll see an increase in the next 24 hours.
Quoting 61. yankees440:

Not exactly sure how to say this, but conditions in general already look far better than they have in years (in the Atlantic).


Well considering we're about to have our 2nd storm before June 1st and the 1st was a hurricane, I would have to agree with uou.
AF307 Mission #01 into INVEST
Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: In Storm

As of 18:00 UTC May 27, 2016:
Aircraft Position: 28.27N 74.05W
Bearing: 135 at 160 kt
Altitude: 292 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 10 kt at 170
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A



..itsa Mojo risin'


We're seeing some newer Hot Towers finally on the N and Western semi circle of the inner overall .

1:59 PM EDT Friday 27 May 2016
Special weather statement in effect for:
•City of Toronto

A warm and humid airmass is settling into southern Ontario. While heat warning criteria is not expected to be reached in most places, this is the first very warm and humid weather of the season.

These conditions pose a health risk when you are not used to the heat. Everyone is a risk from heat, especially older adults, infants and young children, and people with chronic illnesses. You are advised to (1) drink plenty of cool liquids before feeling thirsty, and (2) keep cool by dressing for the weather and spending a few hours each day in a cool place.

Maximum temperatures will range from 28 to 30 across the regions today and from 29 to 32 Saturday. Overnight lows will range from 17 to 20 tonight and from 18 to 21 Saturday night.

Maximum temperatures Sunday and Monday are forecast to be in the high twenties with overnight lows in the mid to high teens.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warning from Environment Canada at www.weather.gc.ca.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.
Thunderstorms appear to be wrapping around and into 91L's center of circulation.
earlier 1435 UTC MW image

Quoting 66. Patrap:

..itsa Mojo risin'



risin risin gonna keep on risin
From the always awesome Angela Fritz:

NOAA hesitantly says this hurricane season could be more active than recent years

"After years of below-average hurricane activity, the rapidly approaching hurricane season could be a little bit closer to normal. This is what the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said this morning, citing a weakening El Nino and warmer than average sea surface temperatures, which are expected to make conditions slightly more conducive to hurricane formation.

"If the outlook is correct, it would be one of the most active seasons in the past few years. In 2015, an average number of named tropical storms developed in the Atlantic, but just four of them reached hurricane status. In 2014, total storm activity was well below average.

"However, the organization says it is more uncertain about the outlook this year than in years past, because we are in a transition between a few global phenomena '2014 El Nino, La Nina and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation, or AMO.'

Source: Washington Post
TXNT26 KNES 271809
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91L)

B. 27/1745Z

C. 28.4N

D. 74.3W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION THAT HAD BUILT NEAR AND OVER THE CENTER AT 12Z
DISSIPATED BUT HAS RECENTLY REDEVELOPED OVER AND WEST OF THE ESTIMATED
CENTER. SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES AND A
CENTER LESS THAN 1.25 DEGREES FROM A SMALL COLD OVERCAST. THIS RESULTS
IN A DT OF 1.5 USING THE SHEAR PATTERN. PT IS ALSO 1.5 WHILE MET IS
1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK
Quoting 62. K8eCane:



maybe she meant Kennedy Space Center. They are close by
Cape Canveral.
Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

click image for loop



Quoting 69. Tcwx2:

Thunderstorms appear to be wrapping around and into 91L's center of circulation.

all systems clear
main engine startup
take off 91L on its way too 02L
and the second storm of the
2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
T- 104HRS 41 MINS
Air pressure is finally starting to drop East of the "Cape", but not much change in wind-speeds yet on the outer fringes from a few hours ago:


NDBC
Location: 28.903N 78.464W
Date: Fri, 27 May 2016 17:50:00 UTC
Winds: NE (40°) at 15.5 kt gusting to 19.4 kt
Significant Wave Height: 4.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Average Wave Period: 4.9 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ENE (67°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.02 in and falling
Air Temperature: 77.4 F
Dew Point: 71.4 F
Water Temperature: 78.3 F

Hope this is not a sign of what kind of season we have. As much as I love following and tracking storms hopefully it's just a season of rain makers. I am afraid we are overdue for a big one. 91L looks to be forming up a little so will be fun to watch this weekend
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912016) 20160527 1800 UTC

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 28.3N LONCUR = 74.2W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 27.2N LONM12 = 72.1W DIRM12 = 296DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 26.8N LONM24 = 70.3W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 110NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport

Date:

2:00 PM EDT Friday 27 May 2016




Condition:

Mostly Cloudy

Pressure:

30.0 inches

Tendency:

falling

Visibility:

15 miles

Temperature:

80.4°F

Dewpoint:

66.6°F

Humidity:

62%

Wind:

SE 13 mph

Humidex:

93
AF307 Mission #01 into INVEST
Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: In Storm

As of 18:20 UTC May 27, 2016:
Aircraft Position: 27.62°N 73.72°W
Bearing: 180° at 120 kt
Altitude: 316 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 15 kt at 193°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A






Quoting 64. Bucsboltsfan:



Well considering we're about to have our 2nd storm before June 1st and the 1st was a hurricane, I would have to agree with uou.


The first was also an anomaly, a baroclinic system that transitioned into a TC over relatively cool water but with cold air aloft too creating the instability necessary to sustain a TC. These do happen occasionally and it was incidentally very well handled by both ECMWF and the GFS several days out.

The second is a typical early season TC. Early activity is not predictive of total activity.

Otherwise though conditions do seem to be setting up for a more active season than the past few and the overall conclusion in the quoted post of more activity is likely correct.
I will not be busting out my traditional seasonal storm song lyrics (the full lyrics) for this one; gonna save it for September when a major comes along:

This ain't no party, this ain't no disco,
This ain't no fooling around
No time for dancing, or lovey dovey,
I ain't got time for that now

T.C.F.A.
091L/INV/XX/CX
18:29:30Z 27.533N 74.217W 977.3 mb
(~ 28.86 inHg) 310 meters
(~ 1,017 feet) - - From 265° at 12 knots
(From the W at ~ 13.8 mph)

Well they found a west wind
Quoting 50. daddyjames:

A certain candidate (to remain unnamed) is talking about "opening up the water" so that farmers can survive in California. I wonder where exactly that water would come from?


I think the wall will keep it from running out of the country.

I'm here to answer all of those tough questions.. next!


(wait.. considering some of the electorate's judgment I have to
explicitly say this is SARCASM (assuming they can handle
such a big word) )
Quoting 88. Hurricanes101:

18:29:30Z 27.533N 74.217W 977.3 mb
(~ 28.86 inHg) 310 meters
(~ 1,017 feet) - - From 265° at 12 knots
(From the W at ~ 13.8 mph)

Well they found a west wind
its closed
Convection trying to wrap around a center that is getting better organized. I will not be surprised this is designated a TD by the 3 pm update if not then the nightly update looks more likely for a depression or Bonnie if these trends continue.
Quoting 83. georgevandenberghe:



The first was also an anomaly, a baroclinic system that transitioned into a TC over relatively cool water but with cold air aloft too creating the instability necessary to sustain a TC. These do happen occasionally and it was incidentally very well handled by both ECMWF and the GFS several days out.

The second is a typical early season TC. Early activity is not predictive of total activity.

Otherwise though conditions do seem to be setting up for a more active season than the past few and the overall conclusion in the quoted post of more activity is likely correct.


In general, less dry air (in mid to upper levels perhaps), SAL is less, better vertical instability, and less shear. Scary to think of what could come from home grown systems later this season
I am more curious as to what track the models are are going to show in the early runs tomorrow morning after they feed the current Hunter info in and do some air sampling to the North of the circulation overnight (if they decide to take some samples using the aptly named Gulf Stream Jet).
Quoting 91. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Convection trying to wrap around a center that is getting better organized. I will not be surprised this is designated a TD by the 3 pm update if not then the nightly update looks more likely for a depression or Bonnie if these trends continue.


They wont designate it until 5 if it deserves to be. If they find what they are looking for, the 3pm TWO will likely state 90/90 or 100/100 stating that advisories will be initiated.
now it will commence the draw off the water pull everything in its got a tight coc within anything is possible
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Btw in the last 4 GFS runs they keep showing a Wilma like track into FL by a TS 3 times, and a Cat 1 (990 mb) once. Just saying...
if it fails its over
AF307 Mission #01 into INVEST
Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: In Storm

As of 18:40 UTC May 27, 2016:
Aircraft Position: 27.57°N 74.33°W
Bearing: 45° at 160 kt
Altitude: 309 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 13 kt at 271°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A



102. vis0
This is not a TS>Hurricane, its a "Themacain" (), 2 or 3 TS/SubTrops revolving around the HIGH.



shhh don't tell the youngins its a Triskelion.
103. vis0

Quoting 102. vis0:

This is not a TS>Hurricane, its a "Themacain" (), 2 or 3 TS/SubTrops revolving around the HIGH.



shhh don't tell the youngins its a Triskelion.

oops forgot the important part THE IMG of the INVEST !
The filter i added just added a bit more pop maybe 15%.

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