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Odds of a Weekend Tropical Depression Rise; Dodge City Dodges Multiple Tornadoes

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 3:36 PM GMT on May 25, 2016

Showers and thunderstorms continue over portions of the Bahamas and nearby waters in association with an upper-level trough interacting with a weakening cold front. On Wednesday morning, NHC designated this area of interest as Invest 91L. This activity is expected to coalesce into an area of low pressure on Friday a few hundred miles north of the Bahama Islands. This low has the potential to develop into a tropical depression as it moves northwest towards the Southeast U.S. coast over the weekend. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the Bahamas are about 28 - 29°C (82 - 84°F), which is 1 - 2°C (1.8 - 3.6°F) above average. These waters are plenty warm enough to support formation of a tropical storm. Phase space diagrams from Florida State University have been consistently showing over the past few days that this storm will be a symmetric warm core system--technical lingo for a storm that is tropical in nature, rather than subtropical or extratropical.


Figure 1. The area of disturbed weather near the Bahamas that we're tracking, as seen by MODIS on Tuesday afternoon, May 24, 2016.


Figure 2. Predicted wind speeds for the Southeast U.S. at 2 pm EDT (18Z) Monday, May 30, 2016 from the 00Z Wednesday, May 25 run of the European model (left) and the 06Z Wednesday May 25, 2016 run of the GFS model (right). Both 5-day forecasts were predicting a possible tropical depression off the Georgia/South Carolina coast. Image constructed using our wundermap with the "Model Data" layer turned on.

Increasing model agreement on genesis
In my 2013 blog post, Genesis of New Atlantic Tropical Cyclones: Which Model Should You Trust?, I explained that we have three models that have proven to be fairly reliable for predicting the genesis of tropical depressions up to four days in advance: the American GFS model, the European ECMWF model, and the British UKMET model. About 50% of the time, at least one of these models will successfully predict tropical cyclone genesis up to four days in advance. When all three models agree on genesis, confidence increases in the forecast. On Tuesday, the UKMET model was not forecasting genesis, while the GFS and European models were. However, the Wednesday morning (00Z) runs of all three of these models showed the potential for Invest 91L to develop into a tropical depression a few hundred miles north of the Bahamas this weekend; this increases our confidence that genesis will occur. In a special Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 8:15 am EDT Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center bumped up their development odds in the 2-day and 5-day time ranges to 10% and 50%, respectively.

Invest 91L likely will not have enough time over water to become a strong tropical storm or hurricane, so heavy rain is the main concern from this system. The 00Z Wednesday runs of the models indicated a possible threat to the coasts of northern Florida, Georgia, or South Carolina early next week--though the European model showed the storm staying just off the coast through next Wednesday. I'll keep you updated each day this week with the latest prognosis for this potential early-season storm. Should it become a tropical storm, it would be named Bonnie.

Close call for Dodge City: A marathon tornado sequence narrowly misses town
Tuesday produced one of the biggest tornado outbreaks of 2016 thus far, with 30-plus twister reports logged by the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center as of early Wednesday. A long-lived supercell dropped several tornadoes across northeast Colorado, and a brief twister damaged several structures near Bristow, Oklahoma. More than 5 inches of rain fell from Tuesday to Wednesday morning across parts of eastern Oklahoma (see embedded tweet at bottom), and flash flood warnings were in effect Wednesday morning over parts of northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas. One person drowned early Wednesday morning after a car was swept off a roadway in high water near Davenport, OK.


Figure 3. One of the series of tornadoes that moved through Ford County, KS, along a north-south line just west of Dodge City. Image credit: Bob Henson.

The tornadic storm of the day on Tuesday was a monster supercell that ground its way northward across the Dodge City, Kansas, area. The storm formed near the intersection of the Southern Plains dryline and an outflow boundary from Monday night storms that had pushed through most of Kansas. Winds north of the outflow boundary were from the southeast, which provided plenty of low-level spin for the storm to ingest, and very warm, humid air (temperatures well above 80°F and dew points in the upper 60s) led to extreme levels of instability. With upper-level winds relatively weak, the Dodge City storm hung close to the slow-moving boundary intersection or “triple point”, spitting out more than a dozen tornadoes of various shapes and sizes (cone, wedge, elephant trunk, rope, etc.) in the space of 90 minutes along the storm’s track of about 30 miles. Observers reported at least three instances of two simultaneous tornadoes from this storm’s mammoth wall cloud--a la the twin tornadoes of Pilger, Nebraska, from June 2014--and there was reportedly a brief third tornado at one point. The sequence may end up ranking among the most prolific in the annals of cyclic tornado production from a single storm. At least a dozen structures were damaged or destroyed along the storm’s path, including several on the western outskirts of Dodge City, but no serious injuries had been reported as of early Wednesday--a very fortunate outcome for Dodge City’s closest tornado call in many years. Near sunset, an impressive light and cloud show unfolded on the storm’s west side.


Figure 3. A spectacular display of anticrepuscular rays opposite the setting sun near Dodge City on May 24, 2016. Image credit: Bob Henson.


Figure 4. The departing storm filled the eastern sky over Dodge City with mammatus at sunset on May 24, 2016. Image credit: Bob Henson.


Figure 5. Severe weather outlook for Thursday, May 26, 2016, from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC). SPC is calling for an enhanced risk of severe weather (orange) across portions of Nebraska, Kansas, and Oklahoma. This Day 2 outlook will be updated around 1:30 pm EDT Wednesday.

The severe weather outlook for Wednesday and beyond
The active pattern across the Southern Plains will take a partial breather on Wednesday, as very warm mid-level air will help suppress thunderstorms for much of the day. A few scattered supercells may pop up by evening across SPC’s broad slight risk area, which extends from Texas to Minnesota. Pockets of weakness in the upper-level wind pattern will be generally unfavorable for tornadic storms, leaving large hail as the main threat toward the south and strong winds toward the north along a cold front. Activity should refocus along the dry line from Texas to Kansas on Thursday, when a stronger upper-level wave may trigger another round of multiple tornadic supercells. SPC has placed the region just east of the dryline under an enhanced risk of severe weather for Thursday. The stubborn upper-level trough that’s driven four consecutive days of tornado activity will languish across the western U.S. through Memorial Day weekend into next week, but it will gradually weaken as it does so. As a result, the intensity of the Great Plains severe weather looks likely to ramp down as next week unfolds, with plenty of thunderstorms popping over the Southern Plains but less of an overall tornado threat.

Jeff Masters (tropical), Bob Henson (severe)



Hurricane Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks doks!
Get outta Dodge was almost a reality seems.
Invest 91L likely will not have enough time over water to become a strong tropical storm or hurricane, so heavy rain is the main concern from this system. The 00Z Wednesday runs of the models indicated a possible threat to the coasts of northern Florida, Georgia, or South Carolina early next week--though the European model showed the storm staying just off the coast through next Wednesday. I'll keep you updated each day this week with the latest prognosis for this potential early-season storm. Should it become a tropical storm, it would be named Bonnie.

Thats a good thang'
Thanks guys.
Wind shear is decreasing in the vicinity of 91L. I'm in align with the NHC development chances.
They.
Invested.

THAT???
Kman

You've been emailed, the red alert at top of screen doesn't show anymore for incoming mail on this site for whatever reason.
Shear has dropped in the Bahamas :



Quoting 6. aquak9:

They.
Invested.

THAT???
Katrina Felix,Joaquin and Igor all started out as ugly ducklings.I in no way think this storm will be as strong as they were but we have to start somewhere 😉
Quoting 9. MahFL:

Shear has dropped in the Bahamas :





And has even dropped 20 knots near the Carolinas.
Quoting 8. RitaEvac:

Kman

You've been emailed, the red alert at top of screen doesn't show anymore for incoming mail on this site for whatever reason.


Got it. The mail icon does show. Replied.
91L Viz loop dee loop'

Hello All,

Latest WPC discussion:

FOR THIS PARTICULAR MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL
BE DOMINATED BY A DIFFUSE AND OCCASIONALLY 'PULSING' DISTURBANCE
WITH TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS--- THAT APPEARS TO OSCILLATE IN
INTENSITY AS IT WOBBLES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TIME. THE ONE
INTRIGUING ASPECT OF THIS PARTICULAR 'DISTURBANCE' IS ITS SURFACE
REFLECTION---AN OSCILLATING ONSHORE/OFFSHORE FEATURE---THAT WILL
BE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DEPICT ON THE DAILY SURFACE CHARTS
(A 12Z
SNAPSHOT)---GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THAT WILL DEVELOP AND
ROTATE EVER-SO SLOWLY WESTWARD AROUND A VERY BROAD CYCLONIC
MID-LEVEL FLOW CENTERED NEAR 30-31N 77W-78W FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
THE PERIOD. NHC HAS THIS FEATURE HIGHLIGHTED IN THEIR TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK---SO PLEASE REFER TO THEIR INFORMATION IN THE
SHORTER TERM --- AS THE FEATURE EVOLVES OFFSHORE---BENEATH THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH (AND EMBEDDED CYCLONIC FLOW).

VOJTESAK

Quoting 6. aquak9:

They.
Invested.

THAT???


There are already signs of a building rotation and the 850 mb signature is improving fairly quickly. First appearances can be deceiving.
Thank You Both and particularly for the explanation as to the models and genesis issues; sounds to me like NHC upped the probability to 50% based upon 3 model consensus this morning.  Am I correct in assuming that it might have been around 30% if there was only 2-model consensus this morning?.....Also noting that this takes the human element out of the equation to a large degree (but still subject to human interpretation).


I can see a spin.
Also tropical tidbits says that this system has 20kt (23MPH} winds.
Also models are varying, but 3/4 say a landfall somewhere near the carolinas:
Time to stop lurking again.... I think we might be in for a rude awaking with 91L in my opinion. I predict a named tropical storm making landfall on memorial day. Mind you that's just my opinion. I hope i'm wrong but it's been a long long time since an actual storm has made landfall and most people aren't expecting one. The last one i dealt with was TS bill. He really didn't do much at all.
Thanks for the updates, Gentlemen...
Unfortunately that rain chance in the central Carib is moving east
Quoting 21. Tex8492:

Time to stop lurking again.... I think we might be in for a rude awaking with 91L in my opinion. I predict a named tropical storm making landfall on memorial day. Mind you that's just my opinion. I hope i'm wrong but it's been a long long time since an actual storm has made landfall and most people aren't expecting one. The last one i dealt with was TS bill. He really didn't do much at all.


Agreeing with a named storm making landfall, but more like a Strong TD/Minimal TS
Quoting 16. kmanislander:



There are already signs of a building rotation and the 850 mb signature is improving fairly quickly. First appearances can be deceiving.


Just taking a quick look at the RGB floater you can see 3/4ths of a surface to midlevel circulation already in place, only open in the south. This is slightly faster than I expected to be honest. Once the shear begins to drop as the upper trough cuts off over the Bahamas this system should begin to look better. This is developing similar to many early season frontal source tropical cyclones.
"Shear Madness"



Quoting 26. Patrap:

"Shear Madness"






YOU HAD TO DO A PUN.
Will the CMC come out of this like a rockstar?

Currently running..

This status will most likely change soon.

Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 311425
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT THU 31 MARCH 2016
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z APRIL 2016
WSPOD NUMBER.....15-122

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: THIS IS THE LAST WSPOD OF THE SEASON UNLESS
CONDITIONS DICTATE OTHERWISE.

$$
JWP
Link
Latest Tropical update on 91L.
Quoting 21. Tex8492:

I hope i'm wrong but it's been a long long time since an actual storm has made landfall and most people aren't expecting one.


I think you mean a Cat 3, TS Anna hit the Carolina s, just last year.
Quoting 28. ncstorm:

Will the CMC come out of this like a rockstar?

Currently running..




Well that's a long long way from Jacksonville.....no action for me then :(.
Quoting 31. MahFL:



I think you mean a Cat 3, TS Anna hit the Carolina s, just last year.
I see I have living under a rock. Thank you for reminding me. It was a pretty early storm. I think this may end up as a moderately strong tropical storm in the end. Nothing stronger than that though.
Woohoo two posts in one, both being very up to the task, dealing with this severe weather showdown ; thanks!
It's very fortunate nobody got bad wounds or worse.

Gulf stream positive anomalies extend far north, with some overheated parts hitting 27 C temps almost as far as the 40N, with readings at or close to 8 C positive anoms. I know it's not unusual to see large SSTA variations in the Gulf Stream, but still :
- Earth.nullschool.net SSTA

(Edit : "Dodge City Dodges Multiple Tornadoes" lol...)
12z UKMET on board

254

WTNT80 EGRR 251617



MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 25.05.2016



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 29.7N 74.8W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 28.05.2016 29.7N 74.8W WEAK

00UTC 29.05.2016 30.9N 76.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 29.05.2016 31.6N 78.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 30.05.2016 31.7N 79.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 30.05.2016 32.5N 78.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 31.05.2016 33.9N 77.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 31.05.2016 35.1N 76.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
As we start the busy season on the Blog, I would only note for the newer members (and some older ones) that we should all look at longer term trends when looking at the Satt loops and not obsess over each 30 minute satt frame update; there is a reason NHC spaces their discussions several hours apart. A 6-8 hour time frame (whether improving or declining in perceived organization) is a pretty good rule of thumb period to see how a disturbance is responding to the immediate synoptic environment (sheer, ssts, land interaction, etc) in terms of organization and convective activity.

The longer loops (rather than a single image) are the best tool at our disposal when looking at organization issues IMHO.
UPPER LOW DRIFTING E OF FLORIDA
CONVECTIVE LOW TRACKING N OF BAHAMAS FRI/SAT
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: CANADIAN/NAM COMPROMISE BY DEFAULT
CONFIDENCE: BY DEFAULT/SEE NHC OUTLOOKS

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC), AS WELL AS THE 00Z GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE LOW CLUSTERING, FAVORS A SOLUTION MOST SIMILAR TO THE 00Z
CANADIAN/12Z NAM, SO A COMPROMISE OF THE TWO IS PREFERRED BY
DEFAULT. SEE NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS FOR MORE CONCERNING
THIS CONVECTIVE LOW.



THAT is a quote you don't see every day. Forecasters favoring the NAM and CMC for a system.

Edit to add: Though those models are fairly good with cutoff lows. So if they have a better handle on the upper level lows evolution they might have a better handle on the developing (sub)tropical low that is going to be tangled with it.

Lower shear steadily streaming towards invest 91L. If it can get under 10-15kts of shear the next couple days, which it looks like will happen, then we may get one big wet tropical storm.
Synoptic Tropical obs are spaced 3 hrs apart for a reason.

And the best look at the time in between in detail.




Quoting 36. weathermanwannabe:

As we start the busy season on the Blog, I would only note for the newer members (and some older ones) that we should all look at longer term trends when looking at the Satt loops and not obsess over each 30 minute satt frame update; there is a reason NHC spaces their discussions several hours apart. A 6-8 hour time frame (whether improving or declining in perceived organization) is a pretty good rule of thumb period to see how a disturbance is responding to the immediate synoptic environment (sheer, ssts, land interaction, etc) in terms of organization and convective activity.

The longer loops (rather than a single image) are the best tool at our disposal when looking at organization issues IMHO.



ahem....it's so much more fun to look at a 30 minute image and scream...it's dead....or it's a cat 5 widow maker than long term loops that show nothing at all
24 hour wind shear tendency......





48 hour shear forecast


I fear the bike week traffic more than this storm! either will drive me inland this weekend from the grand strand bike loop!!!
Keeper, your timeline was 24 hours too late.
Good Afternoon

Just a little perspective on how things looked @15Z when we got a good pass...



Come on 2016 Hurricane season Lets Go Future Bonnie
Quoting 48. Patrap:


Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 1h1 hour ago
When upper trough stops moving SE, you lose vorticity advection & forced lift => convection has waned NE of Bahamas:
All those tornadoes yesterday, and the only death, from a car swept away in Oklahoma from flooding. Human nature to drive though what looks like shallow water. To those of us at least who don't know floods are bigger killers than tornadoes or hurricanes.
Quoting 49. Gearsts:

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 1h1 hour ago
When upper trough stops moving SE, you lose vorticity advection & forced lift => convection has waned NE of Bahamas:
So that means it will inhibits development.
From last blog:

Quoting 320. Tazmanian:




whats be real here please the NHC would be needing new names too come up with if we had that many storms


Yep, we would have to begin naming storms after bloggers. Hurricane Tazmanian or Hurricane Grothar. G comes before T, so I guess Hurricane Grothar would be seen first, before Hurricane Tazmanian.

;)
holy crow, what a difference in the IR/vis from eight hours previous.

Whoa. Hell yeah they invested that.
Anyone seen this yet............................................... ...............................
what about hurricane James lol I'm a blogger
Starting to look like this invest will come under lower shear and eventually the Gulf Stream. Ho-Hum, maybe not.
Quoting 32. MahFL:



Well that's a long long way from Jacksonville.....no action for me then :(.


If that is near to the location where the storm will form, this system might as well be 1,000 miles from FL. Even if it were 100-200 miles east of the FL East Coast, inland areas of FL would get little to no rain (as is the case in most of these situations).
Current atmospheric models underestimate the dirtiness of Arctic air

Black carbon aerosols--particles of carbon that rise into the atmosphere when biomass, agricultural waste, and fossil fuels are burned in an incomplete way--are important for understanding climate change, as they absorb sunlight, leading to higher atmospheric temperatures, and can also coat Arctic snow with a darker layer, reducing its reflectivity and leading to increased melting. Unfortunately, current simulation models, which combine global climate models with aerosol transport models, consistently underestimate the amount of these aerosols in the Arctic compared to actual measurements during the spring and winter seasons, making it difficult to accurately assess the impact of these substances on the climate.

Link
Yep looking bad right now
12z Euro Sunday



Memorial Day



Quoting 7. Patrap:

The Dodge City tornado "just, and I mean just," missed the center of downtown, said Ari Sarsalari, a meteorologist for The Weather Channel.



Pat I tell you no lie I was not really looking at the blogs or anything around 630 until I saw a radar come out of Kansas showing a possible tornado in Dodge City. When I saw the radar you can see the debris ball inside the radar which had me worried for those folks. That picture tells it all. and look at the football field, look how close it came WOW!
Good low level structure on 91L. It's going to take a while for something like this to develop as the current environment is hostile with strong shear out of the southwest from the upper level trough to the west of the system. Once it gets closer to the Bahamas and Gulf Stream is when we could really see things take off with increasing SSTs and upper level ridging establishing itself over the eastern seaboard.
There is an excellent Nat Geo show on Arctic climate studies (from 2015 but broadcast over this past weekend) from the perspective of Russian based scientists, along with Western ones, looking at the Arctic Circle in areas adjacent to Russia (as opposed to Greenland-Canada/Alaska) and the research impacts are identical. Polar Bears stranded on ice-less patches of land unable to feed on seals, the carbon soot leading to increased melting of glacial ice which includes "red" melt lines which further darken the ice and increase heat retention, and most interesting to me, discovering a species of plankton around/under the ice sheets which normally originate from much warmer waters to the South that are now mixing North due to SST warming.

Best quote from one of the scientists on the show was something along the following lines; the Earth is warming and species will adapt/change etc. regardless of whether the humans adapt or not. This is moving forward on Mother Natures timetable, and not Man's, at this point.
Quoting 60. VAbeachhurricanes:

12z Euro Sunday



Memorial Day






Afternoon, all.

The key here will be consistency of the models going forward. We'll have to wait and see how the large-scale environment unfolds in the next few days. One thing is fairly certain; whatever this becomes, it will be stuck in a very weak steering flow.
Quoting 61. bigwes6844:


Pat I tell you no lie I was not really looking at the blogs or anything around 630 until I saw a radar come out of Kansas showing a possible tornado in Dodge City. When I saw the radar you can see the debris ball inside the radar which had me worried for those folks. That picture tells it all. and look at the baseball field, look how close it came WOW!


I was travelling yesterday when the outbreak happened and cant really post yet on my I phone thingee with good results,but I saw that as well.

We lucky it strayed from Mid town there its a tight knit community and Luck was on their side yesterday fo sho Bigwess.


Im working on a lil local project here and would like some input on the idea and may wu mail the link later today If I complete the page
Dodge City is in Ford County, huh.

Quoting 43. FyrtleMyrtle:

I fear the bike week traffic more than this storm! either will drive me inland this weekend from the grand strand bike loop!!!


Completely forgot that's this weekend. A little wind and rain won't keep the bikes away.
Hints as to when a "low" will form . . .
Excerpted from

000
AXNT20 KNHC 251803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016
CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main feature in the basin is a tropical wave located in the
SW Caribbean. See tropical waves section for details. Isolated
showers are possible for Hispaniola, Cuba and Puerto Rico this
afternoon and early evening. Strong deep layer wind shear and
dry air subsidence support fair weather W of 80W. A strong pres
gradient between low pres in the SW basin and high pres NE of
the area in the Atlantic support fresh to strong winds S of 18N
between 68W and 79W. These winds are forecast to diminish Friday
before sunrise as a center of low pres forms in the SW Atlantic

and the tropical wave move W over Pacific waters. Another
tropical wave will enter the Caribbean early Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle to upper level trough over the W Atlantic with base
reaching S to the SW Caribbean support the remnants of a former
front being analyzed as a surface trough from 30N67W to 23N73W.
The upper trough also supports a surface trough farther east
from 28N66W to N of Hispaniola near 20N69W. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are across the Florida straits and the Great
Bahama Bank and in the vicinity of the troughs between 62W and
73W. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a broad
surface ridge anchored by a 1031 mb high near 35N47W. The
surface troughs are forecast to merge today and a low is
forecast to form by Friday.
I am still amazed by the SST's in May. This is gonna be crazy by the month of August.


64. weathermanwannabe

Best quote from one of the scientists on the show was something along the following lines; the Earth is warming and species will adapt/change etc. regardless of whether the humans adapt or not. This is moving forward on Mother Natures timetable, and not Man's, at this point.


New research confirms continued, unabated and large-scale amphibian declines

Link
Quoting 64. weathermanwannabe:

There is an excellent Nat Geo show on Arctic climate studies (from 2015 but broadcast over this past weekend) from the perspective of Russian based scientists, along with Western ones, looking at the Arctic Circle in areas adjacent to Russia (as opposed to Greenland-Canada/Alaska) and the research impacts are identical. Polar Bears stranded on ice-less patches of land unable to feed on seals, the carbon soot leading to increased melting of glacial ice which includes "red" melt lines which further darken the ice and increase heat retention, and most interesting to me, discovering a species of plankton around/under the ice sheets which normally originate from much warmer waters to the South that are now mixing North due to SST warming.

Best quote from one of the scientists on the show was something along the following lines; the Earth is warming and species will adapt/change etc. regardless of whether the humans adapt or not. This is moving forward on Mother Natures timetable, and not Man's, at this point.


The Warming of the Globe is a Human endeavour adding gigatonnes of CO2 to the Atmosphere daily, and it is "the dominate force driving the Arctic Warming".

The Arctic observed warming is the place where we are seeing the Warmest anomalies being observed,globally.

It is Not a natural induced warming...in any sense.

To be clear.
Meanwhile closer to home . . . it looks as if KS will be the center of action again, if any occurs.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS
STATES AND MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS. A
LESS CERTAIN AND/OR MORE MARGINAL SEVERE STORM RISK COVERS A BROAD
AREA OF THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST.

...CENTRAL KS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW OVER CENTRAL KS WITH THE DRYLINE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN OK/TX. LOW CLOUDS ARE ERODING IN
THIS AREA...WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS HELPING TO TRANSPORT
MID/UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION. BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...A
VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT WITH STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3500 J/KG. A DRYLINE
BULGE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW...HELPING TO
INITIATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND PEAK HEATING. VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES WOULD PROMOTE SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES IN THE
REGION...WITH A RISK OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO.

...WESTERN OK INTO CENTRAL TX...
A GENERALLY UNCAPPED DRYLINE IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN OK AND PARTS OF CENTRAL TX. VARIOUS 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THIS AXIS
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL NOT BE MAINTAINED VERY LONG AND WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE ON INITIATION LOCATIONS. THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN ONLY
MARGINAL RISK CATEGORY AT THIS TIME.

...SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST TX...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER
PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX...AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN
MEXICO. THOSE STORMS THAT FORM AND AFFECT THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL
POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PERSISTENT MID/HIGH
CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ARE LIMITING CONFIDENCE IN A MORE
ORGANIZED RISK.
I am interested for the 18z HWRF and GFDL runs
Euro has 91 approach SC then sink back down towards Florida,run not finished yet..
Still no updated NHC RECON POD as of just now.
Quoting 69. bigwes6844:

I am still amazed by the SST's in May. This is gonna be crazy by the month of August.





it's definitely higher than normal....but amazingly so?????.......you be the judge


Quoting 66. Patrap:



I was travelling yesterday when the outbreak happened and cant really post yet on my I phone thingee with good results,but I saw that as well.

We lucky it strayed from Mid town there its a tight knit community and Luck was on their side yesterday fo sho Bigwess.


Im working on a lil local project here and would like some input on the idea and may wu mail the link later today If I complete the page

ok cool Pat! Let me know. Im in my office till 5 then ill be home around 8ish.
Quoting 76. Patrap:

Still no updated NHC RECON POD as of just now.



How bout this, early in the game, but if low shear and high SST come together, then we could be looking at a strong tropical storm or even a hurricane. Low shear is moving in, we're going to see red from the NHC by Friday at latest. Lot of factors coming together, may still be off shore. Hope so.
Quoting 69. bigwes6844:

I am still amazed by the SST's in May. This is gonna be crazy by the month of August.





Easy to make it look crazy warm when the "warm colors" start below 0... That is such a ridiculous map and scale lol
One of my German Shepherds was returned to me yesterday ric.

He had to make a Public Service Announcement on FB jus now.

: )
The updated 2:00 pm vort signatures for the AOI near the Bahamas:

Mid-Level:



Surface Level:
Quoting 61. bigwes6844:


Pat I tell you no lie I was not really looking at the blogs or anything around 630 until I saw a radar come out of Kansas showing a possible tornado in Dodge City. When I saw the radar you can see the debris ball inside the radar which had me worried for those folks. That picture tells it all. and look at the football field, look how close it came WOW!

I think that's the race track on the South side of town.
fwiw
Quoting 62. Drakoen:

Good low level structure on 91L. It's going to take a while for something like this to develop as the current environment is hostile with strong shear out of the southwest from the upper level trough to the west of the system. Once it gets closer to the Bahamas and Gulf Stream is when we could really see things take off with increasing SSTs and upper level ridging establishing itself over the eastern seaboard.
Those gulf stream waters are warm and the bend in the Georgia coast could help it spin up faster.Almost forgot to post the "hurricane propaganda map" today
Quoting 77. ricderr:



it's definitely higher than normal....but amazingly so?????.......you be the judge




compare to the previous years its been awhile since the Atlantic has been this good this early. Thats why Im going this weekend to start getting prepared just in case anything happens this year. So that way i wont be in a rush to get anything
Weekly




Latest Daily

Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore 3h3 hours ago
Invest 91L showing us a little swirly action. Obs suggest this is down to surface, but lacking deep convection.
Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery Loop
click image for loop

Quoting 88. washingtonian115:

Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore 3h3 hours ago
Invest 91L showing us a little swirly action. Obs suggest this is down to surface, but lacking deep convection.


You know Jim is just itching for a hurricane. He's been riding the pine for far too long.
OMG, will Florida see a tropical system over the Memorial Day weekend? We'll have to wait and see what happens.
12z GFS wasn't excited about the system. EURO keeps it; GFS dumps it.
Quoting 91. birdsrock2016:

OMG, will Florida see a tropical system over the Memorial Day weekend? We'll have to wait and see what happens.


Highly unlikely.
Just an opinion, but the NHC bumping this to 50% in the next five days suggest bullishness with forecast. Lot of conditions possibly coming together. Lot of variables up in the air, but starting to look like we may have a real storm to track.
Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis (Experimental)

AMSU Intensity Time Series

================================
- (!) ENCROACHING TIDES : How Sea Level Rise and Tidal Flooding Threaten U.S. East and Gulf Coast Communities over the Next 30 Years.
Union of Concerned Scientists, 2014. w/ VIDEO.
===============================
"An analysis of 52 tide gauges in communities stretching from Portland, Maine to Freeport, Texas shows that most of these communities will experience a steep increase in the number and severity of tidal flooding events over the coming decades, with significant implications for property, infrastructure, and daily life in affected areas. Given the substantial and nearly ubiquitous rise in the frequency of floods at these 52 locations, many other communities along the East and Gulf Coasts will need to brace for similar changes."


- Abrupt Atlantic Ocean Changes May Have Been Natural
Climate Central - May 23rd, 2016.
"Still, leading scientists warn that greenhouse gas pollution appears to be causing the circulation pattern to slow down, and that it will continue to do so with far-reaching implications for weather and for flood-prone cities and farms around the world."

- New Tar Sands Impact on Climate, Air Quality Found
Climate Central, May 25th, 2016.
"In one of the first studies of its kind, scientists have found that tar sands production in Canada is one of North America's largest sources of secondary organic aerosols - air pollutants that affect the climate, cloud formation and public health."

- U.S. Leads Globe in Oil Production for Third Year
Climate Central - May 23rd, 2016.
"Thanks to the fracking boom, which unlocked previously hard-to-reach shale oil and gas, the U.S. surpassed Saudi Arabia and Russia to become the world's leading producer of oil in 2013. The U.S. became the top natural gas producer in 2011, and has led the world in both oil and gas production together for four years in a row."
Quoting 94. DeepSeaRising:

Just an opinion, but the NHC bumping this to 50% in the next five days suggest bullishness with forecast. Lot of conditions possibly coming together. Lot of variables up in the air, but starting to look like we may have a real storm to track.


I believe the key here will be how long this system has the opportunity to park itself over the Gulf Stream. Like with most systems of the past, much will hinge on how well structured the core (LLC) is. A TS is a very real possibility.
Quoting 94. DeepSeaRising:

Just an opinion, but the NHC bumping this to 50% in the next five days suggest bullishness with forecast. Lot of conditions possibly coming together. Lot of variables up in the air, but starting to look like we may have a real storm to track.

What I've noticed DSR is that there are more favorable dynamics coming into play: 5-10 knots of shear west of the Bahamas, Moderately Moist Environment, Warm SST's. In addition, slow movement. I think we could see a possible 60mph tropical storm. I think a stronger storm than forecasted. I'm thinking the percentages may go up to 60% at 8pm.
Quoting 94. DeepSeaRising:

Just an opinion, but the NHC bumping this to 50% in the next five days suggest bullishness with forecast. Lot of conditions possibly coming together. Lot of variables up in the air, but starting to look like we may have a real storm to track.


Well NHC is mentioning that they expect a low to form by Friday morning in their most recent discussion. Now whether that further develops into anything beyond that remains to be seen. Flip a coin.

Edit: just realized that today is Wednesday, not Thursday - so NHC is not expecting a low to form forr the next 36 hours (more or less).
Thursday the same area that got hit Tuesday with severe weather may not be has lucky has we may see a mod risk upgrade at later outlooks
Quoting 70. RobertWC:

64. weathermanwannabe

Best quote from one of the scientists on the show was something along the following lines; the Earth is warming and species will adapt/change etc. regardless of whether the humans adapt or not. This is moving forward on Mother Natures timetable, and not Man's, at this point.


New research confirms continued, unabated and large-scale amphibian declines

Link
Extinction is a form of adaptation. For people as well as animals.
Quoting 101. Tazmanian:

Thursday the same area that got hit Tuesday with severe weather may not be has lucky has we may see a mod risk upgrade at later outlooks


Absolutely Taz. Next week is looking better but long term for June looking like mid June onward could have several of the largest outbreaks of the season. But that's expected with this El-Nino finally waning. Wish I could unblock you. You are a classic mainstay after all. :)
Quoting 91. birdsrock2016:

OMG, will Florida see a tropical system over the Memorial Day weekend? We'll have to wait and see what happens.


Florida? More like North Carolina.
Quoting 104. HurriHistory:



Florida? More like North Carolina.


With the steering flow expected to be weak, it's really up-in-the-air as to where this will eventually end up. Anywhere from N Fla to NC is in play.
Quoting 103. DeepSeaRising:



Absolutely Taz. Next week is looking better but long term for June looking like mid June onward could have several of the largest outbreaks of the season. But that's expected with this El-Nino finally waning. Wish I could unblock you. You are a classic mainstay after all. :)


It seem like the unblocking is broken
Quoting 107. Patrap:






Clear as mud:-)

Afternoon, Pat.
XXXX
91L/INV/XX/XX
Quoting 105. nash36:



With the steering flow expected to be weak, it's really up-in-the-air as to where this will eventually end up. Anywhere from N Fla to NC is in play.


Just what are we going to follow this year? 2016 looking like a repeat of hottest year ever recorded. We're looking at a slow Pacific season and maybe an Atlantic season we haven't seen in some time. Remember early season forecasts are like going to the casino. Think a hyper active peak may well be coming. Looking at maybe 14/9/4 or thereabouts. We'll be looking at historic flooding through June I'm afraid and a summer's heat that will set records. And that's just for the continental. Much afoot, this is going to be a hell of a year.
Quoting 91. birdsrock2016:

OMG, will Florida see a tropical system over the Memorial Day weekend? We'll have to wait and see what happens.


ok...i know this will be tough to swallow...but i am here to help you and as kindly as i can be.....relax....slow your breathing...and read the post by the good doc and mr henson....especially this line

However, the Wednesday morning (00Z) runs of all three of these models showed the potential for Invest 91L to develop into a tropical depression a few hundred miles north of the Bahamas this weekend; this increases our confidence that genesis


now look at your map...you will note that even though florida is the capital of the world.....there's still other places tropical systems can strike

ok.....now to be serious...it's your third comment so i wish you much blogging success but i will suggest you read the blog post in it's entirety
I'm going to have to revise my prediction upward to 164 named storms, 73 hurricanes and 35 major hurricanes. :P

JK, I'll stick with 16-7-3, which looks very possible at this time.
Let us remember this possibility; we may see the most rapid flip in history from record El-Nino to very strong La-Nina. We have little ideas if this will happen or not. Certainly a possibility. If this were to happen the conditions world wide may be the most extreme we've ever seen. Would possibly lead to a hyper peak season the likes we've not seen in some time. My money's with the extreme option. Has been carrying the day for some time now.
NWS Dodge City ‏@NWSDodgeCity 4h4 hours ago
Damage survey has just started, but preliminary evidence supports an EF3 rating for the tornado south-southwest of Dodge City
Quoting 118. Skyepony:




CUTE very very cute

now everyone will show up with long rifles
A few things being overlooked on 91L. One of those I think are SSTs. From the blog entry: "Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the Bahamas are about 28 - 29°C..."

Ok, but that's not where 91L is, nor where it is going. It'll be over SSTs near to below 26C all the way to the coast, save for its passage over the narrow Gulf Stream. I think it's trying to consolidate a bit further north than earlier forecasts. 26C isn't a golden rule; see Alex, among others. However, it's hardly sitting on rocket fuel. I think the 50% odds over 5 days is fair, but it's going to be a slow process, especially in the shorter term as it deals with very high wind shear. And regardless, sensible impacts will be about the same either way.

Quoting 102. CaneFreeCR:

Extinction is a form of adaptation. For people as well as animals.

The sobering thing is that the amphibians have rode ou some pretty hairy extinction events -

This key amphibian trait has been inherited all the way back from the first vertebrates ever to climb out of the water onto land, almost 370 million years ago during the Devonian Period – about 140 million years before the earliest dinosaurs.

Link
Quoting 118. Skyepony:




Ahhh. I see we have a MS Paint guru in our midst.

Thats pretty darn good right there!


keep an eye on the red dot
This is what happens when you cut down a few trees -





200,000 year old soil found at mysterious crater, a ‘gate to the subterranean world’

Many Yakutian people are said to be scared to approach the Batagaika Crater – also known as the Batagaika Megaslump: believing in the upper, middle and under worlds, they see this as a doorway to the last of these.

The fearsome noises are probably just the thuds of falling soil at a landmark that is a one kilometre-long gash up to 100 metres (328 feet) deep in the Siberian taiga.

Batagaika started to form in 1960s after a chunk of forest was cleared: the land sunk, and has continued to do so, evidently speeded by recent warmer temperatures melting the permafrost, so unbinding the layers on the surface and below. Major flooding in 2008 increased the size of the depression which grows at up to 15 metres per year.


Link
This would get me more excited than this so called weekend low event.



This is yet another reason we won't be farming the Arctic Circle.




MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0726
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL OK THROUGH ECNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251947Z - 252145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP FROM
NCNTRL OK TO ECNTRL KS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT...BUT A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.


DISCUSSION...THIS AFTERNOON A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM A SFC LOW IN
WCNTRL KS SWWD THROUGH WRN OK AND NWRN TX. EAST OF DRYLINE A TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM CNTRL KS SWD INTO NCNTRL OK...AND THIS BOUNDARY
INTERSECTS THE NRN PORTION OF AN EXPANSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT
EXTENDS FROM SRN AR THROUGH CNTRL AND NCNTRL OK. E-W
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE SFC LOW IN WCNTRL KS ENEWD
THROUGH NCNTRL KS.

LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE IN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE EML PLUME HAS ADVECTED ABOVE A
VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONTRIBUTING TO 3000-3500 J/KG MLCAPE.
HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERE STILL APPEARS CAPPED IN THIS REGION JUDGING BY
THE CHARACTER OF THE LOW CLOUDS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER NCNTRL OK INTO SCNTRL KS BY 22Z AT THE INTERSECTION OF
THERMAL/MOIST AXIS...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WEAKLY CONVERGENT
TROUGH/DRYLINE. GIVEN LINGERING CAP ASSOCIATED WITH EML PLUME AND
PRESENCE OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALOFT...IT APPEARS LIKELY
THAT STORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED. HOWEVER...35-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE
HAIL. A WINDOW WILL ALSO EXIST FOR A FEW TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY AS
THE LLJ STRENGTHENS DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLES.

..DIAL/HART.. 05/25/2016



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0726
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL OK THROUGH ECNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251947Z - 252145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP FROM
NCNTRL OK TO ECNTRL KS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT...BUT A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.


DISCUSSION...THIS AFTERNOON A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM A SFC LOW IN
WCNTRL KS SWWD THROUGH WRN OK AND NWRN TX. EAST OF DRYLINE A TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM CNTRL KS SWD INTO NCNTRL OK...AND THIS BOUNDARY
INTERSECTS THE NRN PORTION OF AN EXPANSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT
EXTENDS FROM SRN AR THROUGH CNTRL AND NCNTRL OK. E-W
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE SFC LOW IN WCNTRL KS ENEWD
THROUGH NCNTRL KS.

LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE IN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE EML PLUME HAS ADVECTED ABOVE A
VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONTRIBUTING TO 3000-3500 J/KG MLCAPE.
HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERE STILL APPEARS CAPPED IN THIS REGION JUDGING BY
THE CHARACTER OF THE LOW CLOUDS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER NCNTRL OK INTO SCNTRL KS BY 22Z AT THE INTERSECTION OF
THERMAL/MOIST AXIS...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WEAKLY CONVERGENT
TROUGH/DRYLINE. GIVEN LINGERING CAP ASSOCIATED WITH EML PLUME AND
PRESENCE OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALOFT...IT APPEARS LIKELY
THAT STORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED. HOWEVER...35-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE
HAIL. A WINDOW WILL ALSO EXIST FOR A FEW TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY AS
THE LLJ STRENGTHENS DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLES.

..DIAL/HART.. 05/25/2016
Quoting 129. unknowncomic:

This would get me more excited than this so called weekend low event.






Yeah, that would REALLLY get my attention.
Quoting 129. unknowncomic:

This would get me more excited than this so called weekend low event.





Two TS interacting over Florida in the first half of June.

Be pretty epic.
Do the models show the second storm as well? Or do they drop it?
Images of the Dodge City supercell as seen from a DOW yesterday. Preliminary data shows that the radar sampled winds up to 90 m/s (175kt).


138. Wyote
Here's a salute to the severe weather photographer, Bob Henson for the fine pics in the blog today! Woulda scared the H out of me to be in Dodge yesterday.
Regarding the "Flying Turkey Invest" -

I hope those folks in the Carolinas have their seat back trays in the up right and locked position, and have read the instructions on how to use their floatation devices.
Quoting 127. RobertWC:

This is what happens when you cut down a few trees -






Kinda resembles a Bluntnose guitarfish from this vantage point ;)

Quoting 136. washingtonian115:

Do the models show the second storm as well? Or do they drop it?


It is 360 hours out . . . .
Quoting 140. RobertWC:

Regarding the "Flying Turkey Invest" -

I hope those folks in the Carolinas have their seat back trays in the up right and locked position, and have read the instructions on how to use their floatation devices.


Just means that it'll be a bad day on the beach, not much more than that
Quoting 119. DeepSeaRising:

Let us remember this possibility; we may see the most rapid flip in history from record El-Nino to very strong La-Nina. We have little ideas if this will happen or not. Certainly a possibility. If this were to happen the conditions world wide may be the most extreme we've ever seen. Would possibly lead to a hyper peak season the likes we've not seen in some time. My money's with the extreme option. Has been carrying the day for some time now.


The transition from Nino to Nina in 1998 was pretty fast. I'm more worried about a very hot summer from the warm boreal winter setup we just had. But yeah I'm worried about an active TC season the way some people in Houston worry about weather there. I want them elsewhere or preferably gone. And I live in DC where realistic tracks all go over 300 miles of land first.

But that said I'll take a TC over the convective stuff like downbursts and tornadoes where you get maybe a half hour warning that your house and hearth has just drawn the lemons. You can and I do prepare for TC
Sculpture by Isaac Cordal, entitled “Politicians discussing global warming.”



Quoting 142. daddyjames:



It is 360 hours out . . . .
There was a storm the models were projecting to form right on the hills of "Bonnie"."Bonnie" on the model was making landfall and then another storm appeared on the Euro north of P.R

This is not "Bonnie" this was the supposed second storm.
Quoting 143. daddyjames:



Just means that it'll be a bad day on the beach, not much more than that


I was thinking of this -

South Carolina
Rainfall accumulations across the Carolinas and surrounding states from October 1–4, ending at 6:24 p.m. EDT (22:24 UTC). Areas in white indicate accumulations in excess of 20 in (510 mm).

Rainfall across parts of South Carolina reached 500-year event levels,[13] with areas near Columbia experiencing a 1-in-1000 year event.[14] Accumulations reached 24.23 in (615 mm) near Boone Hall by 11:00 a.m. EDT (15:00 UTC) on October 4.[15] Charleston International Airport saw a record 24-hour rainfall of 11.5 in (290 mm) on October 3.


Wiki
Quoting 66. Patrap:



I was travelling yesterday when the outbreak happened and cant really post yet on my I phone thingee with good results,but I saw that as well.

We lucky it strayed from Mid town there its a tight knit community and Luck was on their side yesterday fo sho Bigwess.


Im working on a lil local project here and would like some input on the idea and may wu mail the link later today If I complete the page


Posting works fine on my Galaxy S5. Only problem is I'm a slow texter on that touch keyboard. That's not a problem with the device.
Quoting 145. RobertWC:

Sculpture by Isaac Cordal, entitled “Politicians discussing global warming.”






I think of group fiddling but there's nothing to burn here.
Marine Composite Forecast Map for SW N Atlantic Offshore Waters

72 hrs


Quoting 148. RobertWC:



I was thinking of this -

South Carolina
Rainfall accumulations across the Carolinas and surrounding states from October 1–4, ending at 6:24 p.m. EDT (22:24 UTC). Areas in white indicate accumulations in excess of 20 in (510 mm).

Rainfall across parts of South Carolina reached 500-year event levels,[13] with areas near Columbia experiencing a 1-in-1000 year event.[14] Accumulations reached 24.23 in (615 mm) near Boone Hall by 11:00 a.m. EDT (15:00 UTC) on October 4.[15] Charleston International Airport saw a record 24-hour rainfall of 11.5 in (290 mm) on October 3.


Wiki


No, that won't happen - not enough moisture for it to work with. I think at worst we'll see a TS out of this, but not a big one.
Quoting 147. washingtonian115:

There was a storm the models were projecting to form right on the hills of "Bonnie"."Bonnie" on the model was making landfall and then another storm appeared on the Euro north of P.R

This is not "Bonnie" this was the supposed second storm.


I think they dropped those other storms


Here we go again . . . . although it is north of me (not wishing ill on those that live there).

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 210
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
345 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 345 PM
UNTIL 900 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER NORTHERN
OK AND CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE. WHILE ONLY A
FEW STORMS MAY FORM...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR VERY LARGE HAIL
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH THOSE CELLS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
MANHATTAN KANSAS TO 35 MILES SOUTH OF PONCA CITY OKLAHOMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
Quoting 152. daddyjames:



No, that won't happen - not enough moisture for it to work with. I think at worst we'll see a TS out of this, but not a big one.


now ya did it
now it will go R.I.S. and form a C4 in 24 hrs
from start of main convective cycle
Quoting 155. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



now ya did it
now it will go R.I.S. and form a C4 in 24 hrs
from start of main convective cycle


LOL - yup, the downcaster's jinx :)
Quoting 147. washingtonian115:

There was a storm the models were projecting to form right on the hills of "Bonnie"."Bonnie" on the model was making landfall and then another storm appeared on the Euro north of P.R

This is not "Bonnie" this was the supposed second storm.


So if 91L forms, this one would be Colin...then the 2 other storms shown earlier would be Danielle and Earl..

If a 360 hr forecast holds
Quoting 157. JrWeathermanFL:



So if 91L forms, this one would be Colin...then the 2 other storms shown earlier would be Danielle and Earl..

If a 360 hr forecast holds


Which never does. It's fantasyland.
Remember for the last two seasons we've seen the Caribbean shear graveyard collect storm after storm. This is a new season with variables we've not seen the last few years. If we've learned anything in the last fifteen years, it's to expect climate to show us new norms we weren't expecting. We could well be in for surprise after surprise this year.
160. VR46L
I think 91L could be our second storm of the year .... The circulation is moving toward favourable conditions ... all the Models have seen a mild TS at some stage in the last couple of days .
I'm seeing all these Air Quality Alerts in the Eastern USA. Can anyone help me with that?
Quoting 159. DeepSeaRising:

Remember for the last two seasons we've seen the Caribbean shear graveyard collect storm after storm. This is a new season with variables we've not seen the last few years. If we've learned anything in the last fifteen years, it's to expect climate to show us new norms we weren't expecting. We could well be in for surprise after surprise this year.


QFT.
Quoting 161. 62901IL:

I'm seeing all these Air Quality Alerts in the Eastern USA. Can anyone help me with that?


What do you need help with? All the alerts seem to be for ground level ozone that is higher than the recommended levels. Just a guess, but I'd say the air mass isn't particularly moving and combined with haze and man-made pollutants, the air is becoming contaminated with ozone. Happens frequently in the summer.

Ground level or "bad" ozone is not emitted directly into the air, but is created by chemical reactions between oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOC) in the presence of sunlight. Emissions from industrial facilities and electric utilities, motor vehicle exhaust, gasoline vapors, and chemical solvents are some of the major sources of NOx and VOC. Breathing ozone can trigger a variety of health problems, particularly for children, the elderly, and people of all ages who have lung diseases such as asthma. Ground level ozone can also have harmful effects on sensitive vegetation and ecosystems.

Ozone - EPA
we have a humidex of 33c right now its warm maybe a shower or thunder shower later better chance tomorrow temps will again soar to 30c on fri and sat with humidex values edging up both days to 33 to 35c feel like temps

feeling more like mid summer than late spring
Quoting 160. VR46L:

I think 91L could be our second storm of the year .... The circulation is moving toward favourable conditions ... all the Models have seen a mild TS at some stage in the last couple of days .

it has a good shot we will see late tomorrow if it can get it together or not
Quoting 163. Astrometeor:



What do you need help with? All the alerts seem to be for ground level ozone that is higher than the recommended levels. Just a guess, but I'd say the air mass isn't particularly moving and combined with haze and man-made pollutants, the air is becoming contaminated with ozone. Happens frequently in the summer.

Ground level or "bad" ozone is not emitted directly into the air, but is created by chemical reactions between oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOC) in the presence of sunlight. Emissions from industrial facilities and electric utilities, motor vehicle exhaust, gasoline vapors, and chemical solvents are some of the major sources of NOx and VOC. Breathing ozone can trigger a variety of health problems, particularly for children, the elderly, and people of all ages who have lung diseases such as asthma. Ground level ozone can also have harmful effects on sensitive vegetation and ecosystems.

Ozone - EPA


I was just wondering why they were there. thanks for your help.
Quoting 165. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

it has a good shot we will see late tomorrow if it can get it together or not

I'm thinking it will.
Quoting 163. Astrometeor:



What do you need help with? All the alerts seem to be for ground level ozone that is higher than the recommended levels. Just a guess, but I'd say the air mass isn't particularly moving and combined with haze and man-made pollutants, the air is becoming contaminated with ozone. Happens frequently in the summer.

Ground level or "bad" ozone is not emitted directly into the air, but is created by chemical reactions between oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOC) in the presence of sunlight. Emissions from industrial facilities and electric utilities, motor vehicle exhaust, gasoline vapors, and chemical solvents are some of the major sources of NOx and VOC. Breathing ozone can trigger a variety of health problems, particularly for children, the elderly, and people of all ages who have lung diseases such as asthma. Ground level ozone can also have harmful effects on sensitive vegetation and ecosystems.

Ozone - EPA


Ozone is also an agricultural hazard for sensitive crops including soybeans. But that said there is really nothing you can do to protect against it.

It is also a hazard on summer afternoons from midday till late night, for athletes. I used to not be able to run on summer afternoons in DC because of this even though I was at that time very tolerant of heat.

170. vis0
Either i'm using a creeestal ball or just science as in adding more warm moisture to the dynamics of weather i see more supercells with the ability to flash-flood.

IF this invest(s) (in my book** there are 3 areas worth watching, nxt 180hrs) turns towards land be it island or continent, though its main damage / injury be from floods yet some Torn spin-ups would not surprise me.
In particular for areas in the SE Appalachians some tornadoes at an F level stronger than the "usual" for this type of TS form (if F0, F1 are the norm, we might see an F2.]


**101 ways to make yourself believe what you say...its a best cellar
Quoting 155. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



now ya did it
now it will go R.I.S. and form a C4 in 24 hrs
from start of main convective cycle


Take a break.

You may be ill.
Houston often gets air quality alerts for days after a weak cool front moves through. The skies are clear and the temps are mild--seems like a beautiful day in store. But there is not much mixing and the NOx is being pumped out pretty much 24/7/365. With the bright sunshine we get ozone.
Quoting 173. Patrap:



Take a break.

You may be ill.
nope perfectly fine and are you sayin it cant happen
a storm is coming and it will be 02L maybe even stall directly over the hot steaming stream if it does anything is possible
Not sure why both the Atlantic and East pacific can't start May 15th.

176. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
5:53 PM EDT on May 25, 2016
I don't know bout all that.I say worst case is a strong tropical storm (65-70mph) anything higher and I will upload a picture of myself in a bright clown wig.
Odds of a Weekend Tropical Depression Rise;


Quoting 174. bappit:

Houston often gets air quality alerts for days after a weak cool front moves through. The skies are clear and the temps are mild--seems like a beautiful day in store. But there is not much mixing and the NOx is being pumped out pretty much 24/7/365. With the bright sunshine we get ozone.


Well all our mighty works are killings us -

Canada's oil sands are an important source of fossil fuels, but they also emit high levels of air pollutants, according to a study published today in Nature. The emissions equal what's produced by the entire city of Toronto, researchers from Environment Canada say. And that raises concerns over the potential health effects these air pollutants may have.

Link

Cate / May 25, 2016

Surprise surprise—our national public broadcaster, the CBC, is also reporting on this study. They mention that the highest concentrations fall in Edmonton—the provincial capital and seat of govt.

Link
Quoting 177. washingtonian115:

Not sure why both the Atlantic and East pacific can't start May 15th.

176. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
5:53 PM EDT on May 25, 2016
I don't know bout all that.I say worst case is a strong tropical storm (65-70mph) anything higher and I will upload a picture of myself in a bright clown wig.
and those big red sunglasses and a bouquet of balloons in yer left hand with a sign in yer right sayin big clown I am
18Z GFS is back on board.




000
AXNT20 KNHC 251803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological
analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle to upper level trough over the W Atlantic with base
reaching S to the SW Caribbean support the remnants of a former
front being analyzed as a surface trough from 30N67W to 23N73W.
The upper trough also supports a surface trough farther east
from 28N66W to N of Hispaniola near 20N69W. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are across the Florida straits and the Great
Bahama Bank and in the vicinity of the troughs between 62W and
73W. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a broad
surface ridge anchored by a 1031 mb high near 35N47W. The
surface troughs are forecast to merge today and a low is
forecast to form by Friday.

For additional information please visit
www.hurricanes.gov/marine


Just kinda sits there
I bet with a developing La Nina we will get a very active Atlantic hurricane season.
Still sitting right offshore getting stronger

Quoting 186. JrWeathermanFL:



Just kinda sits there


Sigh.. Not how I imagined my Memorial Day weekend...
Well here in southern Wisconsin just got our first major thunderstorms of the year. They were pretty good sized a couple even went severe. Here in the Columbus area we just got barely missed by a small hailer.
Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery Loop
click image for loop

Wow.. 156 hours and still sitting there..
I know there's been some hum drum, early season weakling talk; maybe this will be a lop sided weak mess that if it gets named will be generous. I'm excited! Projections before a storm forms and before conditions show themselves to be, is an unknown. We have projections and expectations, but what we have most of right now is unknowns.
You know when they found all that tar, and it is tar. They said , ok. Because the Saudis turned a valve and light sweet crude flowed on to the tankers. They didn't pump oil. Their "lifting costs" were zero.

This is golden chance for the Saudis to kill the tar sands.

And they have never failed to kill anything that threatens them .
Quoting 186. JrWeathermanFL:



Just kinda sits there


12Z Euro does something pretty similar. The low drifts back to the S.W. towards the N.E. Florida coast.



David Baxter III - severestudios.com stormchaser - on Twitter
"Jaw dropping display of Mammatus today, Dodge City KS."

- Dodge City Supercell Timelapse - 8 Tornadoes in 54 Seconds! - Youtube Video

========================
- State of emergency as 100,000 bats descend on Australian town
ITV Report, 24 May 2016
"A state of emergency has been declared after 100,000 bats descended on a small Australian town."
? &-/
Quoting 196. 999Ai2016:


David Baxter III - stormchaser - on Twitter
"Jaw dropping display of Mammatus today, Dodge City KS."


That's from yesterday. Could be the same mammatus clouds shown in Dr. Masters/Mr Henson's blog today.
Quoting 155. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


now ya did it
now it will go R.I.S. and form a C4 in 24 hrs
from start of main convective cycle

you just want me to die, huh.

I'm a small dog- I can swim. All the way to Canadia if I have to, hahahah
From the Miami NWS Discussion...

For Friday, we will have to monitor the progress of the potential
system as associated moisture could near the east coast of
Florida. If the system were to develop, which the National
Hurricane Center discusses in their Special Tropical Weather
Outlook (TWOAT), the southeastern United States could see
unsettled weather. What that means for South Florida specifically
is still hard to tell. We could see the potential for some
increasing rain chances this weekend if the system stays weak and
disorganized with additional tropical moisture streaming into the
area. The flip side comes with potential development over the
Bahamas as we could continue in an area of subsidence which
provides for a drier weekend.

At this point, folks should continue to monitor the evolution of
this potential system and forecast trends. This system also serves
as a great reminder that the Atlantic Hurricane Season is nearly
here, officially kicking off on June 1st, and now is a great time
to make your ready kits and check on your preparations and plans
for the coming season. It`s better to prepare your family,
business, and community organizations with a plan before any
potential threats!

Link
Quoting 191. Patrap:

Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery Loop
click image for loop




Ian Livingston %u200F@islivingston 4s4 seconds ago
Funnel developing on Bennington cell.

The HWRF has spoken it seems.It got a lot of the storms last year correct.It was the first to show Joaquin and Danny becoming major hurricanes and correctly initialized Alex once it was in the models proper time frame.
HWRF has 91L peaking as a 50kt tropical storm:

still bone dry in the western carib
Quoting 206. JrWeathermanFL:




Ana pt. II?
60%

000
ABNT20 KNHC 252338
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
740 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Cloudiness and showers over the western Atlantic Ocean a few hundred
miles northeast of the Bahamas are associated with a newly formed
area of low pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to
gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical or
subtropical cyclone could form on Friday or Saturday. The low is
forecast to move slowly west-northwestward or northwestward and
approach the southeastern United States over the weekend. The next
Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this disturbance will be issued
by 9 AM EDT on Thursday. For additional information on this system,
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS Header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO Header FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
Quoting 210. CybrTeddy:



Ana pt. II?


Appears so. I'm interested to see if this pans out, because as usual, temperatures in the middle of the gulf stream are higher than those right near the coast, and that caused Ana to weaken quite substantially before landfall.

Also similar to Ana is the fact that it stays together after landfall. I always love watching these things transition from subtropical to tropical and then being able to stay together over land. I wonder if there's any correlation there? Lee was subtropical and stayed together well, although it was a big storm. But Beryl stayed together too. The ones that form subtropical seem to stay together over land.

Allison was also subtropical at some point right?



Quoting 210. CybrTeddy:



Ana pt. II?
If this holds, it would be stronger than Ana, and Ana just affected the NC Outer Banks with TS force winds, this would affect a broader land space...
Quoting 213. Camerooski:

If this holds, it would be stronger than Ana, and Ana just affected the NC Outer Banks with TS force winds, this would affect a broader land space...


Ana from last year I think he means. 2015 Ana also peaked at 50 kts ans made landfall in SC
Quoting 145. RobertWC:

Sculpture by Isaac Cordal, entitled “Politicians discussing global warming.”






That's fantastic
Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 5h5 hours ago
If 91L stalls a bit before moving north, exactly where it stalls will matter a lot. Gulf stream 5C warmer than shelf
Eugene Thieszen has an absolutely beautiful cone tornado on his stream.
NHC says Friday or Saturday to watch for subtropical or tropical formation! Chances up to 60%
Quoting 218. CybrTeddy:

Eugene Thieszen has an absolutely beautiful cone tornado on his stream.


Turning into a violent wedge.
Tornado on TWC getting HUGE
Quoting 220. CybrTeddy:



Turning into a violent wedge.


any big towns in the path
But like Carl said that could mean that it's weakening
Quoting 196. 999Ai2016:


David Baxter III - severestudios.com stormchaser - on Twitter
"Jaw dropping display of Mammatus today, Dodge City KS."

- Dodge City Supercell Timelapse - 8 Tornadoes in 54 Seconds! - Youtube Video

========================
- State of emergency as 100,000 bats descend on Australian town
ITV Report, 24 May 2016
"A state of emergency has been declared after 100,000 bats descended on a small Australian town."
? &-/



alternate headline: State of Emergency Declared After Australian Town Goes "Batty"
Quoting 222. Tazmanian:



any big towns in the path


No, but Willowdale KS is in front of it
I really feel for folks in KS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
726 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

KSC041-143-260030-
/O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0012.000000T0000Z-160526T0030Z/
OTTAWA-DICKINSON-
726 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN OTTAWA AND NORTHWESTERN DICKINSON COUNTIES...

AT 723 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR ABOUT 5 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF NILES APPROACHING
THE DICKINSON OTTAWA COUNTY BORDER...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED A HALF MILE WIDE WEDGE TORNADO
ABOUT 5 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF NILES...JUST CROSSING
SOLOMON ROAD.

IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY
BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES
WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES...
BUSINESSES...AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION
IS POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOLOMON AND TALMAGE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 267 AND 270.
Tornado stronger, nearing Willowdale, rainwrapped

This could be very bad, but hopefully people in Willowdale know what to do..Town of 250
Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 5h5 hours ago
If 91L stalls a bit before moving north, exactly where it stalls will matter a lot. Gulf stream 5C warmer than shelf
Quoting 145. RobertWC:

Sculpture by Isaac Cordal, entitled “Politicians discussing global warming.”




I see hillary and bernie in there. Starting to rain here.
Tornado back on TWC...wow..
A 1017 mb surface low is centered near
26N68W, with a surface trough extending from 29N67W, to the low,
to 24N70W. Latest satellite imagery and current observations
show some signs of organization of this low and environmental
conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for
development. For future information chances, please refer to the
Special Tropical Weather Outlook product under AWIPS Header
TWOAT and WMO Header ABNT20 KNHC.
Quoting 224. DCSwithunderscores:



alternate headline: State of Emergency Declared After Australian Town Goes "Batty"

Bravo, that movie is a true piece of art ...
I wonder what NOAA will say on Friday for their 2016 forecast. I'm predicting they will predict 12-16 named storms, 6-8 hurricanes and 2-4 major hurricanes.
NHC has upgraded the storms formation probability by 10% on both sides.

{24 HOURS: 30%} {5 DAYS: 60%}

Someones about to get out there red crayon.
AL, 91, 2016052518, , BEST, 0, 260N, 678W, 25, 1017, LO
AL, 91, 2016052600, , BEST, 0, 266N, 677W, 25, 1015, LO
This tornado is not calming down at all. Been at least 25 minutes
Quoting 237. JrWeathermanFL:

This tornado is not calming down at all. Been at least 25 minutes


it was for a bit but its now wedge tornado this looks like too be a long track tornado

and this may be the stuff we will be seeing on thursday
Quoting 229. Kenfa03:

I see hillary and bernie in there. Starting to rain here.
Nope, not Hillary or Bernie. Trump and his buddies trying to figure out how much higher the sea wall needs to be built now that his golf course has been flooded again by rising sea levels in Miami.
Today is the classic example of just getting one lone supercell, but it turns out to be very significant. Cap was stout, but there was clearly plenty of energy above it.
Quoting 240. MAweatherboy1:

Today is the classic example of just getting one lone supercell, but it turns out to be very significant. Cap was stout, but there was clearly plenty of energy above it.


yep and thursday looks like we be seeing the same
The Tornado in Kansas is a monster as strong as you will see. Crazy. TWC has live coverage
Quoting 237. JrWeathermanFL:

This tornado is not calming down at all. Been at least 25 minutes

http://www.severestudios.com/storm-chasers/matthe w.mccune.html
Chapman is screwed, no two ways about it. Everybody needs to be underground.
Tornado emergency for chapman
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
818 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

KSC041-260130-
/O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0014.000000T0000Z-160526T0130Z/
DICKINSON-
818 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR CHAPMAN...

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN DICKINSON COUNTY...

AT 817 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE TORNADO WAS LOCATED
JUST WEST OF CHAPMAN...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR CHAPMAN. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS
SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...DEADLY TORNADO.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY
BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES
WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES...
BUSINESSES...AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION
IS POSSIBLE.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
CHAPMAN AROUND 825 PM CDT.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 280 AND 289.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS...AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE
TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3904 9713 3909 9696 3894 9696 3895 9713
TIME...MOT...LOC 0117Z 280DEG 11KT 3896 9708

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC
HAIL...2.75IN

$$

GDP
South of Chapman at the moment
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
TORNADO WARNING     TOPEKA KS - KTOP 827 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TOPEKA KS - KTOP 824 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA - KOAX 813 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING HASTINGS NE - KGID 811 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORTH PLATTE NE - KLBF 809 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TOPEKA KS - KTOP 809 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 809 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN - KMPX 800 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORTH PLATTE NE - KLBF 800 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING BISMARCK ND - KBIS 800 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING SIOUX FALLS SD - KFSD 759 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 757 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING SIOUX FALLS SD - KFSD 754 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016
TORNADO WARNING     TOPEKA KS - KTOP 752 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORTH PLATTE NE - KLBF 751 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TOPEKA KS - KTOP 740 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING BISMARCK ND - KBIS 737 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORTH PLATTE NE - KLBF 734 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016
TORNADO WARNING     TOPEKA KS - KTOP 728 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING SIOUX FALLS SD - KFSD 723 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING SIOUX FALLS SD - KFSD 708 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016
TORNADO WARNING     WICHITA KS - KICT 704 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016
TORNADO WARNING     TOPEKA KS - KTOP 703 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016
Quoting 247. JrWeathermanFL:

South of Chapman at the moment

Dreadful thing.
It hit Chapman. Debris ball exploded to 68 dbz.
Ian Cassette ‏@wibwian 3m3 minutes ago
Reported 20 houses destroyed in Dickinson County. Chaotic and destructive situation #kswx #WIBW
Roping out?
Quoting 252. JrWeathermanFL:

Roping out?


its about too drop other one
SEVERE WEATHER LIVE BLOG: Large tornado causes extensive damage in Dickinson County

UPDATE--8:35 p.m. Emergency management in Dickinson County confirms at least 20 homes have been heavily damaged or destroyed, mostly north of Abliene in the areas of K-15 and K-18. [The situation with the tornado impacting Chapman has been described as "chaos."]

Edit: The statement in brackets has since been removed from the blog.
Quoting 250. TropicalAnalystwx13:

It hit Chapman. Debris ball exploded to 68 dbz.
That's insane normally even rain doesn't get that strong.
KSN Streaming Video

Initial reports from Chapman is that the city largely escaped damage with the tornado just passing to the south.
someone please tell me it's gonna miss Topeka
Quoting 257. aquak9:

someone please tell me it's gonna miss Topeka


At the moment it appears to be passing well south of Junction City, thus south of Topeka as well.
KSNT.com

Initial report is that the tornado missed Chapman by 1/2 mile to the south.
KS Tornado has lifted for the moment
Seeing reports that railroad tracks were destroyed. Wow.
praying it has fizzled out enough to not spin back up
Quoting 259. daddyjames:

KSNT.com

Initial report is that the tornado missed Chapman by 1/2 mile to the south.
Quoting 247. JrWeathermanFL:

South of Chapman at the moment


Thank goodness I was right :P
Quoting 262. tiggeriffic:

praying it has fizzled out enough to not spin back up



Let's hope that it has, but NWS is extending the watch.

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 210
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
856 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

KSC015-017-035-073-079-113-115-169-173-191-260400 -
/O.EXT.KICT.TO.A.0210.000000T0000Z-160526T0400Z/

TORNADO WATCH 210...PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING AREAS

IN KANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 10 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL KANSAS

CHASE MARION MCPHERSON
SALINE

IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS

BUTLER COWLEY HARVEY
SEDGWICK SUMNER

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS

GREENWOOD

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ANDOVER...ARKANSAS CITY...AUGUSTA...
BEL AIRE...COTTONWOOD FALLS...DERBY...EL DORADO...EUREKA...
HAYSVILLE...HILLSBORO...MADISON...MARION...MCPHER SON...MULVANE...
NEWTON...PARK CITY...PEABODY...ROSE HILL...SALINA...STRONG CITY...
VALLEY CENTER...WELLINGTON AND WINFIELD.
KWCH12 SEVERE WEATHER LIVE BLOG: Large tornado causes extensive damage in Dickinson County

UPDATE-- 9:10 p.m.: The county administrator in Dickinson County tells us several homes are destroyed across the county. A search is underway for anyone who may be trapped in a home or injured. To this point, no injuries have been reported.
Quoting 263. JrWeathermanFL:



Thank goodness I was right :P


Yes, thank goodness you were.
Wow! Looks like it's been a busy day, between the severe and tropical wx....
Quoting 268. BahaHurican:

Wow! Looks like it's been a busy day, between the severe and tropical wx....


hey ya Baha
Tornado warning for OK. Funnels forming but nothing on the ground yet. North of Enid - just west of Carrier. Tornado sirens are going off.

NEWS9 Live Feed

Edit - the live feed appears to not be connected for online streaming.
And once again, the cell in KS is tornado warned...
Mark Sudduth ‏@hurricanetrack
Video discussion of 91L off the Southeast coast. Bottom line: not much to see here but will monitor....
Tornado down in OK - power flashes right now on the ground.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
935 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

OKC003-047-260300-
/O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0046.000000T0000Z-160526T0300Z/
ALFALFA OK-GARFIELD OK-
935 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN ALFALFA AND NORTHWESTERN GARFIELD COUNTIES...

AT 935 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR CARRIER...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS AND MEDIA REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CARRIER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORNADOES ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. DO NOT
WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3652 9814 3652 9799 3646 9799 3647 9815
TIME...MOT...LOC 0235Z 278DEG 10KT 3649 9808

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...2.50IN

$$
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
934 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

KSC127-197-260300-
/O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0016.000000T0000Z-160526T0300Z/
WABAUNSEE-MORRIS-
934 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN WABAUNSEE AND NORTHEASTERN MORRIS COUNTIES...

AT 934 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF ALTA VISTA...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND TWO INCH HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALTA VISTA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER
AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3881 9656 3887 9656 3887 9650 3889 9650
3889 9633 3876 9634
TIME...MOT...LOC 0234Z 281DEG 21KT 3884 9651

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...2.00IN

$$
From the Dickinson County Tornado in Kansas.

Tractor tire into side of home:



UPDATE--9:20 p.m.: From north Dickinson County, about three miles south of Talmage, Eyewitness News reporter Anna Auld reports a rural home and garage was destroyed and vehicles were damaged. The damage included a tractor tire that had blown through the siding of the house.
There is also a Twave in the south central Caribbean that is adding to the activity in the area .... pity it isn't likely to bring much moisture to the Caymans.... with a healthy SW Car gyre going... we may actually see another system before July....
The shear will have to moderate, though.
Another tornado warning issued, just west of the first warning.

TORNADO WARNING
OKC003-260315-
/O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0047.160526T0243Z-160526T0315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
943 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN ALFALFA COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 1015 PM CDT

* AT 943 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR HELENA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HELENA AND GOLTRY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORNADOES ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. DO NOT
WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3646 9815 3646 9823 3653 9831 3656 9828
3657 9811
TIME...MOT...LOC 0243Z 294DEG 11KT 3653 9826

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.75IN

$$

MBS

Live feed Kansas

Link
Quoting 277. Grothar:




Solid model consensus
Haven't you done enough already?

91L...

Large cone-shaped tornado wrapped in rain heading towards Hillsdale, OK.
Live feed is now working for NEWS9.
Quoting 232. Gearsts:


Also a lot of activity over the SW Car gyre due in part to the passing Twave...

Too far south to help Caymans... seems like the only part of the Antilles and CAR coast without significant rainfall in the last two weeks ...
Quoting 286. BahaHurican:

Also a lot of activity over the SW Car gyre due in part to the passing Twave...

Too far south to help Caymans... seems like the only part of the Antilles and CAR coast without significant rainfall in the last two weeks ...
The models at a point had a storm that was on the hills of "Bonnie" and the Euro,GFS,CMC and NAVGEM had it.They have since dropped it but they may pick it back up who knows...
Quoting 269. tiggeriffic:



hey ya Baha

Hey, Tigg!!! Back in time for some early action....

:-)
Tornado (#4 on the image) still on the ground, heading towards Kremlin (in the figure). Hillsdale, OK would be impacted first.

Quoting 287. washingtonian115:

The models at a point had a storm that was on the hills of "Bonnie" and the Euro,GFS,CMC and NAVGEM had it.They have since dropped it but they may pick it back up who knows...
That low pressure area is fairly broad, so I don't expect much any time soon.... however if we keep seeing vigorous Twaves, sooner or later it's going to spin something off to the north or the west ...
Fun times ..........
Whew - it looks as if the tornado that was threatening Hillsdale, OK may have lifted up before going into the town (cross-our-fingers).
however they are getting hammered with hail,
New hook developing on the Oklahoma storm, new tornado warning issued for Kremlin, OK.


Looking like a long night in Kansas......
Quoting 284. GeoffreyWPB:

91L...



Im calling it.
Ghost Storm formation alert is being issued by the gator met office. Immediate affects include, excessive blog posts, satellite image frame by frame watching and forecasts based off of science, gut feelings and current location.
Evening Baha....
We have been getting some rain from this.
297. IDTH
Evening everybody, I see we may not have had a large amount of storms but there were some really severe ones that had some bad tornadoes. I also see 91L and how the models are latching on to it. I feel like where it starts to develop will be the key to it's intensity. If it's close to the coastline and not on the gulf stream, I feel it will be minimal in development (minimal tropical storm). If it develops over the Gulf stream, I'm gonna go with a 60 MPH tropical storm. The exact track is still murky but most models pointing the Carolina's so far, however, when we don't have a completely organized system, it's much tougher to get the most accurate track from the models.

We'll see how this unfolds
Quoting 294. BahaHurican:



Looking like a long night in Kansas......


Look at all those waves headed for the EPAC....
Tree debarking is common in tornadoes of EF2 strength and above, but it takes a tornado of exceptional power to annihilate trees like this. Expect at least an EF4.

At the moment, all tornado warnings have expired. Tornado watches continue in Northern OK and SE Kansas. The storm in Kansas was unbelievable generating several tornadoes tonight. Luckily it missed population centers, but several farmsteads in Kansas were severely impacted.


SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1051 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

KSC139-197-260401-
/O.EXP.KTOP.TO.W.0018.000000T0000Z-160526T0400Z/
WABAUNSEE-OSAGE-
1051 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN WABAUNSEE AND NORTHWESTERN
OSAGE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1100 PM CDT...

THE TORNADO THREAT HAS DIMINISHED AND THE TORNADO WARNING HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN LIKELY AND A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS.



LAT...LON 3874 9605 3884 9603 3885 9588 3874 9589
TIME...MOT...LOC 0348Z 273DEG 23KT 3882 9598

$$

And in case you missed it earlier:

Quoting 278. daddyjames:

From the Dickinson County Tornado in Kansas.

Tractor tire into side of home:



UPDATE--9:20 p.m.: From north Dickinson County, about three miles south of Talmage, Eyewitness News reporter Anna Auld reports a rural home and garage was destroyed and vehicles were damaged. The damage included a tractor tire that had blown through the siding of the house.
Ok I'm giving the Bahamas system some probability of development down the road but it's not looking great IMO
Now I know why they call them waves. (Look at 35W)

Quoting 299. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Tree debarking is common in tornadoes of EF2 strength and above, but it takes a tornado of exceptional power to annihilate trees like this. Expect at least an EF4.




They just showed a home in Dickinson county that was completely leveled - nothing remained standing. It looked as if it was standard construction with a brick facade.

KWCH12
Fact: there has been a significant (EF3 or higher) tornado every day this week. There were two EF3s southwest of Big Spring, Texas on Sunday. An EF3 impacted areas near Turkey, Texas on Monday. The tornado near Dodge City yesterday has been rated an EF3, but damage surveying is in the early stages and this rating may change. And then today there is no question we had at least an EF4.

And based on tomorrow's setup, we might extend that streak.
Quoting 305. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Fact: there has been a significant (EF3 or higher) tornado every day this week. There were two EF3s southwest of Big Spring, Texas on Sunday. An EF3 impacted areas near Turkey, Texas on Monday. The tornado near Dodge City yesterday has been rated an EF3, but damage surveying is in the early stages and this rating may change. And then today there is no question we had at least an EF4.

And based on tomorrow's setup, we might extend that streak.


I hope not. We have had enough already.
Good analysis from StormW on 91L.


Link
Quoting 305. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Fact: there has been a significant (EF3 or higher) tornado every day this week. There were two EF3s southwest of Big Spring, Texas on Sunday. An EF3 impacted areas near Turkey, Texas on Monday. The tornado near Dodge City yesterday has been rated an EF3, but damage surveying is in the early stages and this rating may change. And then today there is no question we had at least an EF4.

And based on tomorrow's setup, we might extend that streak.



i was thinking we where going too see a small break today be for the main event i gust that did not happen i wounder what happen there should have been no tornados at all today
Quoting 306. daddyjames:



I hope not. We have had enough already.



like it or not the main event is thuraday
Quoting 277. Grothar:




Farewell and adieu to you, Spanish ladies,
Farewell and adieu to you, ladies of Spain
For we have received orders
For to sail to old England,
But we hope in a short time to see you again'


Quoting 309. Tazmanian:




like it or not the main event is thuraday


I know, and I am in the AOC (Area of Concern).
Quoting 306. daddyjames:



I hope not. We have had enough already.

This has been one of the more impressive weeks for tornadoes in at least modern history. Can't say it wasn't predictable though. The signal was there in a big way on the CFS starting in late April.

Quoting 308. Tazmanian:




i was thinking we where going too see a small break today be for the main event i gust that did not happen i wounder what happen there should have been no tornados at all today

Conditions today were favorable, but the tornado threat was conditional because a strong cap was in place. Only a few storms fired, and only one really took advantage of the environment near the triple point.
Quoting 310. Patrap:



Farewell and adieu to you, Spanish ladies,
Farewell and adieu to you, ladies of Spain
For we have received orders
For to sail to old England,
But we hope in a short time to see you again'






This question might sound a little naïve, but I'm going to ask anyway:


Is it possible---just POSSIBLE---that Invest AL91 could steal enough moisture away from the storm system that is expected to affect the Central/Southern Plains Thursday and Friday to actually WEAKEN its potency? To reduce the likelihood of severe weather in SE TX?

Remember: I'm not trolling, but somehow that seems logical to me.

Anyway, good luck watching the storm.
Maybe for individual tornadoes we had a spectacular week of amazing tornadoes, but one of the most impressive weeks ever TA? Not even close. We feel that way, because it's now been several slow seasons in a row and we forget what epic outbreaks we've had in the past. Looking like an increase to moderate coming, target Kansas again. You've got a high ceiling, kinda like these sick supercells of 60K plus we've seen over the last two days, can't wait to see how far you go. EF5 possible today. I predict ending May through June will see outbreaks that morph this week's. Surely don't wish it though.
Just a slight hint of AL91 beginning to wrap around moisture?

Quoting 313. pureet1948:




This question might sound a little naïve, but I'm going to ask anyway:


Is it possible---just POSSIBLE---that Invest AL91 could steal enough moisture away from the storm system that is expected to affect the Central/Southern Plains Thursday and Friday to actually WEAKEN its potency? To reduce the likelihood of severe weather in SE TX?

Remember: I'm not trolling, but somehow that seems logical to me.

Anyway, good luck watching the storm.


uh, no
Quoting 315. daddyjames:

Just a slight hint of AL91 beginning to wrap around moisture?




Synoptically, there are factors that should decrease the shear shortly, with upper-level winds backing to southerly/southeasterly by tomorrow. Shear won't be a problem; it's the marginal thermodynamics and limited time over water that are working against it. Since global models often do poorly with systems this small (and are not explicit intensity guidance), I wouldn't rule out a strong tropical storm before landfall. Maybe something like Beryl in 2012.
Quoting 314. DeepSeaRising:

Maybe for individual tornadoes we had a spectacular week of amazing tornadoes, but one of the most impressive weeks ever TA? Not even close. We feel that way, because it's now been several slow seasons in a row and we forget what epic outbreaks we've had in the past. Looking like an increase to moderate coming, target Kansas again. You've got a high ceiling, kinda like these sick supercells of 60K plus we've seen over the last two days, can't wait to see how far you go. EF5 possible today. I predict ending May through June will see outbreaks that morph this week's. Surely don't wish it though.

Not ever, just compared to the relative dearth of activity we've seen since 2011. It's definitely up there from a chasing perspective though.
It's wrapping alright. Moving in the right direction. Low shear moving to intercept with eventual crossing of Gulf Stream. Shear and dry air intrusion will tell the story. Both are looking conducive. Think we are looking at a storm between 60-90mph if conditions verify. Shear, and what it'll actually be is the biggest question. Will remain weak until it moves further West but when it hits those conducive conditions, with the fact we already have a budding system under rather hostile conditions, we could see faster than expected strengthening. Code red very likely by Friday.
India Meteorological Department
Satellite Bulletin Description (Outside of India)
8:30 AM IST May 26 2016
==================================

Vortex over South China Sea centered near 16.5N 113.5E
Dvorak Intensity: T1.0


Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
9:00 AM JST May 26 2016
===========================
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression located at 17.0N 114.E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 10 knots.
Quoting 318. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Not ever, just compared to the relative dearth of activity we've seen since 2011.


I get your "modern history" now. :)
I'm fully expecting, when you get to chase a major this year Kori, that you'll be on TWC live in a most precarious situation. At least it'll look that way to the casual onlooker. But you'll know exactly what your doing. Sure, it'll still be harrowing and possibly life threatening, but if I walked into a bar with you and a bear, I'd help the bear. You'll be fine, your a smart guy. Have a feeling, this is your year Kori.
Link
Hurricane Week Day 2
Quoting 322. DeepSeaRising:

if I walked into a bar with you and a bear, I'd help the bear.


Gee, thanks. v_v
Quoting 322. DeepSeaRising:

I'm fully expecting, when you get to chase a major this year Kori, that you'll be on TWC live in a most precarious situation. At least it'll look that way to the casual onlooker. But you'll know exactly what your doing. Sure, it'll still be harrowing and possibly life threatening, but if I walked into a bar with you and a bear, I'd help the bear. You'll be fine, your a smart guy. Have a feeling, this is your year Kori.


Nah, Kori's too much of a brick for TV. They'd have to edit way too many of his statements to be able to tone it into a statement the general populace would understand.
Quoting 326. Astrometeor:



Nah, Kori's too much of a brick for TV. They'd have to edit way too many of his statements to be able to tone it into a statement the general populace would understand.


LOL I've actually toned it down considerably from a year ago. Still talk nothing like a Cajun, though. I should go down to Houma and confuse the hell outta everyone lol.
Quoting 327. KoritheMan:



LOL I've actually toned it down considerably from a year ago. Still talk nothing like a Cajun, though. I should go down to Houma and confuse the hell outta everyone lol.


What you need on a hurricane chase is some scared tourist. I volunteer Cody.

Edit: With this, I'm off to bed. Had 3 rounds of thunderstorms today, nice and cool outside now. Saw the local skunk trudge through the yard after the last storm.
Quoting 316. KoritheMan:



uh, no


Why not? Weather doesn't exist in a vacuum. One system can affect another system, surely.
Quoting 328. Astrometeor:

What you need on a hurricane chase is some scared tourist. I volunteer Cody.
Scared tourist? Astrometeor's excellent Boy Scout camping adventure
Quoting 329. pureet1948:



Why not? Weather doesn't exist in a vacuum. One system can affect another system, surely.


Yes, but it's more likely that if anything, the trough over the central plains will be enhanced by the stream of tropical moisture flowing northward from 91L. The trough is a comparatively larger system.
Quoting 329. pureet1948:



Why not? Weather doesn't exist in a vacuum. One system can affect another system, surely.

If you look at post 302 you can see that 91L and the thunderstorms over the plains are associated with different fields of moisture, and if you remember Joaquin TCs supply moisture more than suck it up and the time frame is one day, forecasts are very accurate in that time frame and there won't be any unexpected major players in the severe weather outbreak
Yes, happens here in Fl. When a tropical storm forms, it will suck up all the humid air, and cause dry conditions outside it's flow. Don't think this one's close enough to influence your weather, though.


Quoting 313. pureet1948:
em



This question might sound a little naïve, but I'm going to ask anyway:


Is it possible---just POSSIBLE---that Invest AL91 could steal enough moisture away from the storm system that is expected to affect the Central/Southern Plains Thursday and Friday to actually WEAKEN its potency? To reduce the likelihood of severe weather in SE TX?

Remember: I'm not trolling, but somehow that seems logical to me.

Anyway, good luck watching the storm.
Quoting 331. KoritheMan:



Yes, but it's more likely that if anything, the trough over the central plains will be enhanced by the stream of tropical moisture flowing northward from 91L. The trough is a comparatively larger system.


You gave him all he needed with um, no. Nice explanation though. He's either got a serve weather phobia, which is a very real thing, or he sure likes to catastrophize just about anything within 250 miles of Houston.
Quoting 331. KoritheMan:



Yes, but it's more likely that if anything, the trough over the central plains will be enhanced by the stream of tropical moisture flowing northward from 91L. The trough is a comparatively larger system.



Quoting 334. DeepSeaRising:



You gave him all he needed with um, no. Nice explanation though. He's either got a serve weather phobia, which is a very real thing, or he sure likes to catastrophize just about anything within 250 miles of Houston.



Well, he's got a point about moisture enhancement. The end result could be a citywide flood that might, in fact, EXCEED the Houston floods of 2016.
Pureet, let me ask you this, are you serious? It's a question many of us are asking. Houston has seen a horrible season for flooding rains, you all have been through a lot. I'll gladly admit you all are a hardy troop. I should more often assume positive intent, I'm giving you that. So what's your deal? Went through a tornado at 5-6 myself, so I know how that becomes a life long obsession. I'm in your corner man.
Quoting 333. swflurker:

Yes, happens here in Fl. When a tropical storm forms, it will suck up all the humid air, and cause dry conditions outside it's flow. Don't think this one's close enough to influence your weather, though.






I suspected that distance would be a factor.
Let's put it this way Pureet, Houston has been through more since Katrina than any city in the USA due to population increase of the needy and poor and other social issues brought by the huge influx. Major social issues and the city has been hammered by El-Nino. I get it.
Quoting 336. DeepSeaRising:

Pureet, let me ask you this, are you serious? It's a question many of us are asking. Houston has seen a horrible season for flooding rains, you all have been through a lot. I'll gladly admit you all are a hardy troop. I should more often assume positive intent, I'm giving you that. So what's your deal? Went through a tornado at 5-6 myself, so I know how that becomes a life long obsession. I'm in your corner man.


1. Let's just say that I'm allergic to thunderstorms, hurricanes, and power outages.


2.Am I serious? About a worse flood than April 18? Well, that depends on if there's anything to what Koritheman says about that Central Plains trough getting a boost from 91L on top of the rich GOMEX moisture. See, our pro mets are having a tough time calling this one. Whether or not Houston sees any severe weather depends on if a mesoscale forms to the south of the main axis of heavy rain, which will be in NE TX. At this time, no one knows, but I can imagine that the last thing the NWS office here needs is a tropical storm to screw up the works.
Quoting 338. DeepSeaRising:

Let's put it this way Pureet, Houston has been through more since Katrina than any city in the USA due to population increase of the needy and poor and other social issues brought by the huge influx. Major social issues and the city has been hammered by El-Nino. I get it.



Katrina was a New Orleans storm, not a Houston storm. You're thinking of Ike.
- Tottering Totten and the Coming Multi-Meter Sea Level Rise
robertscribbler.com - 25/05/16

"In early studies, much weight has been given to glacial inertia. And older climate models did not include dynamic ice sheet vulnerabilities - like high latent-heat ocean water coming into contact with the submerged faces of sea-fronting glaciers, the ability of surface melt water to break up glaciers by pooling into cracks and forcing them apart (hydrofracturing), or the innate rigidity and frailty of steep ice cliffs which render them susceptible to rapid toppling.
But now, new studies are starting to take these physical melt-amplifying processes into account and the emerging picture is one in which glacial melt and sea level rise may end up coming on at rates far more rapid than previously feared."


... And much more exhibits at my Climate Change Museum.
Quoting 340. pureet1948:




Katrina was a New Orleans storm, not a Houston storm. You're thinking of Ike.


No, I'm thinking Katrina. Do you know how many came to Houston after Katrina? How many stayed? And what's happened since? If not, you really should.
Not a criticism, just a long untold story. One of the major stories from Katrina that's never been properly told.
I'm thinking code orange next TWO.
345. ackee
Quoting 344. HurricaneAndre:

I'm thinking code orange next TWO.
agree
Upper-level winds are turning southerly ahead of 91L; you can see it on water vapor imagery. As this is occurring, convection is developing closer to the alleged center (which is still not well-defined). This will be a tropical depression by Saturday, imo.
Quoting 296. CaicosRetiredSailor:

Evening Baha....
We have been getting some rain from this.
This was pretty nasty when it went through here on Monday.... knocked out power for several hours,and had some torrential rain rates. Should be good for the SE - it was pretty dry down there ...
Quoting 325. 999Ai2016:


And turn around, don't drown.

90W, South China Sea.



- For another point of view, you can try Himawari 8, Phillipines Islands Geocolor HQ loop

Yep. It's got that look... may beat out our ATL system.....
Quoting 301. wunderkidcayman:

Ok I'm giving the Bahamas system some probability of development down the road but it's not looking great IMO
Still got a couple of days to go. It would be pretty amazing to have storm C before 15 June ....
it is super muggy this morning in houston. summer is here!
90W vis. / Cloud towers before sunset :


--- HIMAWARI 8 sat. Loop (HD) ---


Rain expected over Central and SE Bahamas today.....
Quoting 212. JrWeathermanFL:



Appears so. I'm interested to see if this pans out, because as usual, temperatures in the middle of the gulf stream are higher than those right near the coast, and that caused Ana to weaken quite substantially before landfall.

Also similar to Ana is the fact that it stays together after landfall. I always love watching these things transition from subtropical to tropical and then being able to stay together over land. I wonder if there's any correlation there? Lee was subtropical and stayed together well, although it was a big storm. But Beryl stayed together too. The ones that form subtropical seem to stay together over land.

Allison was also subtropical at some point right?






Subtropical systems get a signifcant fraction of their energy from horizontal temperature gradients (baroclinicity) which, if present, is available over land as well as over warm water. The theory behind baroclinic energy conversions is too complex to put in a short paragraph though. Frontal cyclones get MOST of their energy from baroclinicity.
INVEST 90W:


--- Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTPN21 ---
Issued at 26/0500Z
WTPN21 PGTW 260500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER - PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//

RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.4N 114.6E TO 22.3N 114.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AT 260146Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 114.6E.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.9 N 114.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 114.6E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF DEEPENING CONVECTION AND SIGNIFICANT CONSOLIDATION OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS FORMING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INCREASE IN BROAD CIRCULATION EXHIBITS AN IMPROVING VORTICITY SIGNATURE OF THE SYSTEM WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS (10-15 KNOTS).
A 260146Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS IDENTIFIES THE WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER, GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION, AND ALSO SHOWS 20 KNOT WIND BARBS DISPLAYED IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
BASED ON RECENT CONSOLIDATION AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 270500Z.

--- HIMAWARI 8 SAT. HD loop ---
(Invest 90W is in the upper right corner)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 260557
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological
analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge covers the far west Atlantic anchored by a 1024
mb high near 32N75W and extending a ridge axis across northeast
Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. An upper trough covers the west
Atlantic supporting a surface trough that extends from 29N67W
through a weak 1016 mb low near 26N68W to 23N69W.
. . . . . . .
The west Atlantic surface trough will move
northwest with the low reaching 28N74W Thursday, 28N75W Friday,
then approaching the southeast CONUS Saturday and Sunday while
dragging the surface trough through the Bahamas reaching the
southeast Florida coast Saturday night.

ECMWF keeps it below tropical storm strength. but along the coast of South Carolina.

HWRF also currently keeps it below Tropical Storm strength.



Seems to be because of dry air intrusion, and the circulation forecast to not be able to stack vertically.



Figures courtesy of Tropical Tidbits.
NHC Offshore Waters Forecasts is not forecasting much intensification of AL91 through Sat.

AMZ101-262030-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
430 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N68W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING NNE-SSW THROUGH THE LOW. PEAK WINDS NEAR THE LOW ARE
INDICATED TO REMAIN AT STRONG CONDITIONS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE LOW SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF 31N BY MONDAY.
ELSEWHERE...TRADEWINDS WILL REMAIN AS MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE
THROUGH MONDAY.

AMZ119 Zone Forecast

AMZ119-262030-
ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W-
430 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.TODAY...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT.
.FRI...SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT.
.SAT...SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT.
.SUN...E TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...E TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT.

AMZ113 Zone Forecast

AMZ113-262030-
ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W-
430 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.TODAY...NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.
.FRI...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT N OF 29N...AND
4 TO 6 FT ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
.SAT...SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT.
.SUN...SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT.
.MON...SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

FORECASTER LANDSEA
Good Morning Folks; regardless of the next percentage (based upon model consensus) here is the current look, shear and surface vort levels for the Bahamas disturbance:




Good morning, all.

It looks like Saturday evening through Monday will be a wet, nasty period for us here in Charleston.
Nice vis loop as the sun rises over the disturbance with some 3-D shadows; convection is a brewing:



Honestly, i don't trust any of these models at this point. Until a well defined COC forms, then I'll take them into consideration.
Finally, the disturbance is still attached, so to speak, to the flow to the North from the ULL and trof; not the most favorable environment until the low continues to move away IMHO:



A low pressure area centered between Bermuda and the Bahamas is
gradually becoming better defined while shower activity is
increasing. Environmental conditions are expected to become more
conducive for tropical or subtropical cyclone formation on Friday
while the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward toward
the southeastern United States coast. With the Memorial Day weekend
approaching, all interests along the southeast coast from Georgia
through North Carolina should monitor the progress of this low. An
Air Force reconnaissance plane will be scheduled to investigate
this low on Friday. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on
this disturbance will be issued by 3 PM EDT today. For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent
50/70
000
ABNT20 KNHC 261222
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A low pressure area centered between Bermuda and the Bahamas is
gradually becoming better defined while shower activity is
increasing. Environmental conditions are expected to become more
conducive for tropical or subtropical cyclone formation on Friday
while the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward toward
the southeastern United States coast. With the Memorial Day weekend
approaching, all interests along the southeast coast from Georgia
through North Carolina should monitor the progress of this low. An
Air Force reconnaissance plane will be scheduled to investigate
this low on Friday. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on
this disturbance will be issued by 3 PM EDT today. For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent
Recon tomorrow, lets go
And the Conus forecast for today and current look: the Wife is at a Conference in San Francisco and sent pictures of the coast next to her Hotel on the Bay when she arrived yesterday afternoon...................Beautiful weather across coastal Cali today for a change from a lot of rain they have been having there in recent month (which they actually need)



Meanwhile, a lot of people are counting their blessings:

Tornado Damages Homes but Spares Small Northern Kansas Town

The Latest: Cleanup to begin after northern Kansas tornado
Dickinson County fire district one chief Paul Froelich told The Associated Press early Thursday that crews have completed secondary searches of the damaged properties. He says no injuries or fatalities have been reported
Meanwhile....the US government likes to stay in the 20th century

The U.S. is still using floppy disks to run its nuclear program

NHC, and the "oracle" models have spoken; so let it be written, so let it be done....................................





Tornadoes Touch Down In Northern Oklahoma

With accompanying video.

Train Derailment Near Carrier Likely Caused By Tornado

Not much else regarding damage, which is good.
It stands to reason that if a tropical depression does form, and move in the general direction of the Carolinas, that it will find very favorable shear, and the Gulf Stream, on closest approach to the Coast; that might be worth a bump from TD to low-grade TS downstream unless it moves too quickly with not enough time to consolidate:




Quoting 373. weathermanwannabe:

It stands to reason that if a tropical depression does form, and move in the general direction of the Carolinas, that it will find very favorable shear, and Gulf Stream, on closest approach to the Coast; that might be worth a bump from TD to low-grade TS downstream:






That narrow tongue will aid the system, but let's be thankful we're not in the middle of August.
Quoting 316. KoritheMan:



uh, no


Hope pureet doesn't stumble upon Lorenz and chaos theory. Every time a camel farts in Sahara we'll see doom posts for Houston.
Quoting 374. nash36:




Nice to see you and I know you are up there; hopefully just a rain event, spoiling Memorial Day beach and picnic plans only, and not much more than that.
Quoting 373. weathermanwannabe:

It stands to reason that if a tropical depression does form, and move in the general direction of the Carolinas, that it will find very favorable shear, and the Gulf Stream, on closest approach to the Coast; that might be worth a bump from TD to low-grade TS downstream unless it moves too quickly with not enough time to consolidate:


I think that'll be the kicker. The uncertainty of the effect of the Gulf Stream (how long it lingers off-shore), the holiday weekend, and the "borderline" nature of the storm as it approaches land may have the NHC name it and issue TC warnings.
At the moment, everything points to a breezy/showery day along the coast. Things could change, of course.
Looks to be pulling in moisture from the south. Thunderstorms are blossoming. COC better defined.
Quoting 376. weathermanwannabe:



Nice to see you and I know you are up there; hopefully just a rain event, spoiling Memorial Day beach and picnic plans only, and not much more than that.


Good to see you as well, my friend.

Don't frequent the blogs as much any longer. My love is tropical weather, so I'm back for the summer. As for the system, it shouldn't amount to much. If it isn't warm core (which it should be), then we may not see much at all, with all of the weather on the east side of the system offshore.

If this stays just south of Charleston, that would put us in the wetter side.
Based on buoy reports water temperatures are marginal for development. 200 miles off South Carolina the water temperatures are in the upper 70s, while near coastal waters drop to the mid 70s. Then as you move up the coast towards N.C. water temperatures drop significantly.

These water temperatures could support a low end T.S. if everything else comes into play, but I wouldn't expect anything too strong.

Quoting 373. weathermanwannabe:

It stands to reason that if a tropical depression does form, and move in the general direction of the Carolinas, that it will find very favorable shear, and the Gulf Stream, on closest approach to the Coast; that might be worth a bump from TD to low-grade TS downstream unless it moves too quickly with not enough time to consolidate:






However according to the coastal forecast from Charleston the "low" is expected to become stationary. Which of course will be an "interesting" forecast to say the least.

Synopsis: ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. THE FORECAST THEN BECOMES QUITE UNCERTAIN AS THE LOW COULD BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...OR SLOWLY PUSH INLAND IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
Quoting 380. Sfloridacat5:

Based on buoy reports water temperatures are marginal for development. 200 miles off South Carolina the water temperatures are in the upper 70s, while near coastal waters drop to the mid 70s. Then as you move up the coast towards N.C. water temperatures drop significantly.

These water temperatures could support a low end T.S. if everything else comes into play, but I wouldn't expect anything too strong.




Agreed.

We're only in late-May. It would be a bit disturbing to have a RI system. A low-end TS is commonplace.
Quoting 340. pureet1948:



Katrina was a New Orleans storm, not a Houston storm. You're thinking of Ike.
This is from one of your fantasy universes you embrace, right?
Here is the 2 am run for the GFS at 75 hours; the interesting part, as noted below, is the blocking ridge pattern not allowing much movement further North of the Carolinas if any: this one is land bound.

[JavaScript Image Player]

People on the blog:Oh my its over looks like nothing will come of it
NHC:We think it has a 50/70% shot

Regardless looks like someone will have a weekend washout.It just shows you in the grand scheme of things how insignificant our holidays are compared to nature because it could really careless what kind of weekend it is.Nature is going to be in progress regardless.
Good Morning
Unfortunately for Kansas (and Nebraska] - it looks as if they'll be under the gun again today.
Outlook for my neck of the woods has improved thanks in part to those big storms overnight in Texas (thank you Texas).

SPC AC 261300

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
PARTS OF CENTRAL/NRN KS AND SRN NEB...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
PARTS OF W CENTRAL AND SW TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS
THROUGH TONIGHT...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK AND
EXTENDING INTO THE MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
VICINITY.
VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
WEST TEXAS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL OTHERWISE
BE POSSIBLE OVER A BROAD AREA OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT...
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER AZ THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS EWD
OVER NM TODAY AND REACH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. A RELATED LEE
CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN TODAY NEAR THE SW CORNER OF KS...AS A
OUTFLOW-REINFORCED SURFACE FRONT DEVELOPS NWD AS A WARM FRONT FROM
CENTRAL KS TOWARD THE NEB BORDER BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A VERY MOIST
AIR MASS WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S IS PRESENT S
OF THE BOUNDARY AND E OF A DRYLINE THAT ARCS SWWD FROM THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE TO THE W TX/SE NM BORDER. THIS RICH MOISTURE LIES BENEATH
A PLUME OF NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE
COMBINATION OF WHICH WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE AOA 4000 J/KG AS SURFACE
HEATING COMMENCES IN THE WARM SECTOR.

THE INITIAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND LARGE-SCALE PATTERN APPEAR
QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS THE
PLAINS...BUT THERE ARE SOME COMPLICATING FACTORS THAT ARE ALREADY
BECOMING APPARENT THIS MORNING. CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
FORMED AND CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS CENTRAL TX...WITH MORE ISOLATED
CONVECTION EXTENDING INTO NW TX. SOME OF THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY NEAR SJT...HAS RESULTED IN DOWNWARD
TRANSPORT OF DRY AIR FROM ABOVE THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER.
THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DOWNDRAFT
PRODUCTION WITH MULTICELL CLUSTERS IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH RELATIVELY
WEAK FLOW/VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE MIDLEVELS...ESPECIALLY FROM N TX
ACROSS OK.

DURING THE AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS THE WARM FRONT IN KS WILL PROVIDE
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORM THREAT
. THE
WARM FRONT SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY REMOVED FROM THE STABILIZING
AFFECTS OF THE EARLY TX/OK CONVECTION...THOUGH THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING AND MODE OF STORM DEVELOPMENT EVEN
IN KS. DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES NEAR THE WARM BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND CURRENT
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR A FEW STORMS TO FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY THIS
TIME. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE DRYLINE
CLOSER TO THE KS/OK BORDER BY MID AFTERNOON...AND THESE STORMS WILL
SPREAD NEWD. AGAIN...THE TORNADO RISK SHOULD BE GREATER WITH STORMS
INTERACTING WITH THE BOUNDARY
...AND DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT GIVEN
WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR.

BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO GET MORE
COMPLEX WITH INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS STORMS AND LIKELY
OUTFLOW/STABILIZING INFLUENCES. AS SUCH...THE LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADO RISK SHOULD PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE WARM FRONT
IN KS OR EXTREME SRN NEB.
..PRIOR TO MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING. FARTHER S...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE BY THIS
EVENING INVOF THE DRYLINE FROM WRN OK TO W TX. THE LIKELIHOOD OF
RELATIVELY EARLY CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION...AND WIND PROFILES WITH
PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL BACKING BOTH CAST DOUBT ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
SEVERE RISK FROM NW AND N CENTRAL TX INTO OK. THE MORE INTENSE
STORMS SHOULD FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF W CENTRAL/SW TX...TO THE W-SW OF THE EARLY CENTRAL TX
CONVECTION. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

...ERN CO THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
AN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME N OF THE LEE CYCLONE/SURFACE FRONT WILL DRAW
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WWD INTO SE AND E CENTRAL CO TODAY BENEATH
LINGERING STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. SURFACE HEATING AND LIFT
ALONG THE FRONT /IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER
NM/ WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON.

..THOMPSON/COHEN.. 05/26/2016
Another 80 degree morning here in SE TX. Like a sauna out there, luckily it's only getting to 90 during the day. Dewpoints in upper 70s to near 80. Don't ever recall this kind of morning warmth in the month of May.
This Bouy is 350 nautical miles E-NE of Nassau; pressure is still steady but winds out of the NE indicating a broad cyclonic circulation:


NDBC
Location:27.517N 71.483W
Date:Thu, 26 May 2016 13:00:00 UTC
Winds:NE (50) at 15.5 kt gusting to 19.4 kt
Atmospheric Pressure:30.05 in and steady
Air Temperature:76.5 F
Dew Point:72.7 F
Water Temperature:79.2 F

Water temp on Galveston being reported at 83 degrees in the Galveston's Paper weather section.
391. MahFL
91L is coming together :

Quoting 340. pureet1948:




Katrina was a New Orleans storm, not a Houston storm. You're thinking of Ike.

It was also a Miami storm.
Quoting 340. pureet1948:




Katrina was a New Orleans storm, not a Houston storm. You're thinking of Ike.


The impact of Katrina in Houston was a social one, with the Astrodome being used to house evacuees and the assimilation of a large number of evacuees into the city's communities. Storms have long reaching and lasting impacts beyond immediate physical damage to property and life.
Some folks can't see beyond their own zip code.

Nor care, either, for that matter.
Does anyone have a good radar link for Costa Rica? Thank you in advance ...
Quoting 388. RitaEvac:

Another 80 degree morning here in SE TX. Like a sauna out there, luckily it's only getting to 90 during the day. Dewpoints in upper 70s to near 80. Don't ever recall this kind of morning warmth in the month of May.


I remember days with temperatures close to 100 degrees at Easter time when I lived in South Central Tx.
OMG Bernie and Trump just agreed to a debate! WOW Trump said that he would do the debate but all proceeds need to go to charity! Great TV
400. MahFL
Quoting 399. Camerooski:

OMG Bernie and Trump just agreed to a debate! WOW Trump said that he would do the debate but all proceeds need to go to charity! Great TV


So you get to watch two political losers debating, wonderful.....
If the disturbance was lower it would've had a chance to tap into some warm semi deep water.
Quoting 399. Camerooski:

OMG Bernie and Trump just agreed to a debate! WOW Trump said that he would do the debate but all proceeds need to go to charity! Great TV


They both have a common enemy. And Bernie has been making a big deal out of the fact that Clinton won't debate him. So it benefits both Bernie and Trump.
403. MahFL
The coc of 91L seems to be heading west.
Quoting 399. Camerooski:

OMG Bernie and Trump just agreed to a debate! WOW Trump said that he would do the debate but all proceeds need to go to charity! Great TV


Who cares?

I'd rather scoop out my eyes with a mellon scoop than listen to any of those three lunatics talk about anything.

Now, back to the weather...
Quoting 385. washingtonian115:

People on the blog:Oh my its over looks like nothing will come of it
NHC:We think it has a 50/70% shot

Regardless looks like someone will have a weekend washout.It just shows you in the grand scheme of things how insignificant our holidays are compared to nature because it could really careless what kind of weekend it is.Nature is going to be in progress regardless.
LIES, I SAY LIES!! Who are you to negate the holy power of sanctified USA national HOLIDAYS...hmmmm???? Nature must BOW before the eternal SUPREME WRITS of the US CONGRESS -verily! All contarian viewpoints are LIES!



[joke mode: off]

Glad we are not looking at an Invest in the GOM this week!
You say multiple tornadoes. But the picture you showed us was a single tornado - only one funnel. Were there any multiple tornadoes - tornadoes with more than one funnel coming from the cloud?
Quoting 405. JNFlori30A:

LIES, I SAY LIES!! Who are you to negate the holy power of sanctified USA national HOLIDAYS...hmmmm???? Nature must BOW before the eternal SUPREME WRITS of the US CONGRESS -verily! All contarian viewpoints are LIES!



[joke mode: off]

Glad we are not looking at an Invest in the GOM this week!


Yeah, I'm looking forward to a nice relaxing weekend out on the boat out at Crab Island! Forecast looks to be nice with highs in the mid to upper 80's and zero percent chance of rain over the weekend!
Pressure down to 1014, winds up to 30mph.
Invest 91L
As of 12:00 UTC May 26, 2016:

Location: 26.6°N 69.5°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1014 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1017 mb
Radius of Circulation: 140 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 100 NM
Quoting 407. 69Viking:



Yeah, I'm looking forward to a nice relaxing weekend out on the boat out at Crab Island! Forecast looks to be nice with highs in the mid to upper 80's and zero percent chance of rain over the weekend!
It's gonna be packed this weekend, have fun!
91L is developing a medium strength circulation right now with an elongation from southwest to northeast.
Center appears to be going west as mentioned, possibly with a WSW jog, but the convection is following it and attempting to wrap around.

Getting closer and closer..
Center located around 27N,70W.
000
NOUS42 KNHC 261429
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030AM EDT THU 26 MAY 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z MAY 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-001

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA....NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS
FIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 27/1800Z A. 28/1130Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST B. AFXXX 0202 CYCLONE
C. 27/1500Z C. 27/0830Z
D. 28.0N 74.0W D. 30.0N 76.0W
E. 27/1730Z TO 27/2130Z E. 28/1100Z TO 28/1630Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES WHILE
SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
3. REMARKS: THIS IS A SPECIAL TCPOD. DAILY TCPODS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED WHILE AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE MISSIONS
ARE BEING CONSIDERED OR TASKED FOR THIS SYSTEM.

$$
JWP
Quoting 409. JNFlori30A:

It's gonna be packed this weekend, have fun!


Yeah that's why I get there early and then wait for all the crazies to leave before I leave. It helps that I have a 20' CC boat with an outboard, easy to maneuver in the shallow water. There will be live bands on a barge both Saturday and Sunday so should have some good music to listen to while out there!
Quoting 370. RitaEvac:

Meanwhile....the US government likes to stay in the 20th century

The U.S. is still using floppy disks to run its nuclear program




I used punch cards until 1983.
Here is an excellent article by fivethirtyeight about the Moore, Oklahoma tornadoes. Tornado Town, USA
Quoting 397. TexasWaterfowler:

Does anyone have a good radar link for Costa Rica? Thank you in advance ...


No. The closest radar would be the one located in the Panama Canal - but its range is quite limited.
Quoting 417. 69Viking:



Yeah that's why I get there early and then wait for all the crazies to leave before I leave. It helps that I have a 20' CC boat with an outboard, easy to maneuver in the shallow water. There will be live bands on a barge both Saturday and Sunday so should have some good music to listen to while out there!

For those who have no idea what Crab Island is..

For some reason I figured that the blog would be a lot more active by now.

Guess the DOOM:CON isn't high enough

Plan of the Day







000
NOUS42 KNHC 261429
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030AM EDT THU 26 MAY 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z MAY 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-001

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA....NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS
FIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 27/1800Z A. 28/1130Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST B. AFXXX 0202 CYCLONE
C. 27/1500Z C. 27/0830Z
D. 28.0N 74.0W D. 30.0N 76.0W
E. 27/1730Z TO 27/2130Z E. 28/1100Z TO 28/1630Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES WHILE
SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
3. REMARKS: THIS IS A SPECIAL TCPOD. DAILY TCPODS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED WHILE AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE MISSIONS
ARE BEING CONSIDERED OR TASKED FOR THIS SYSTEM.

$$
JWP

NNNN

Blob-Con 3.5 on this Invest, due to Intensity, likelihood of forming, and agreement of models.
Quoting 421. JNFlori30A:


For those who have no idea what Crab Island is..




I look at this and wonder why people keep coming to Texas, lol. See I don't have anything to do with the water because it's brown and ugly here. If I had access to that I'd be a water and boating kind of guy.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Pureet1948 I find questionable for one reason. It's not that he's hyper focused on Houston. It's the fact he's hyper focused on Houston and nothing else. Never have I seen him show any interest in what's happening to anyone else. Most of us care greatly for people and the harm that often comes from the weather we all enjoy following so much. It's a blog, we're supportive, informed, and have a wide rang of topics we cover. He doesn't participate in that.
430. vis0
Quoting 429. DeepSeaRising:

Pureet1948 I find questionable for one reason. It's not that he's hyper focused on Houston. It's the fact he's hyper focused on Houston and nothing else. Never have I seen him show any interest in what's happening to anyone else. Most of us care greatly for people and the harm that often comes from the weather we all enjoy following so much. It's a blog, we're supportive, informed, and have a wide rang of topics we cover. He doesn't participate in that.

i prefer people whom care to those that don't.
That said caring as to local weather is better than trolling 'bout issues to deflect the public's interests as to science and on this blog science as to weather/climate related issues.

In the end i'd rather have 50 people only posting as to what is happening in their state (lets imagine that each of the 50 represented the 50 stares) therefore the rest of the readers can join together that puzzle and make observations accordingly as to the country as a whole.

Think of Pureet1948 as if a weather station.
WxStations do not move around they only read what happening at a super local level, yet we tune in to those WxStations to see what happened and if we're knowledgeable enough we draw up the entire continent with Isobars, Isotachs, Isohyets, Isotired etc to create the big picture.

Enjoy that we have a fan of observing/learning from weather . nature and thus try not to alienate them instead take them, in as part of the family** so when trolls come-a-knocking WxU will have more members on the side of supporting real science as to combating ignorance.

(Pureet1948 did mention Katrina as a more New Orleans affecting storm, though others mentioned Katrina's other influence was to have those that evacuate head outward all over the USofA and many towards Houston,Tx but Pureet1948 did not mention Houston first.)

[zilly] **can i barrow 10 bucks Cuz Pureet1948? [zilly]

lookie another  blogbyte, oh boy! more brain nourishment...

There were several multiples... and a triple as stated. Click the link for a picture.
Link

Quoting 406. storm42:

You say multiple tornadoes. But the picture you showed us was a single tornado - only one funnel. Were there any multiple tornadoes - tornadoes with more than one funnel coming from the cloud?