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A Memorial Day Weekend Tropical System For the Southeast U.S.?

By: Jeff Masters 4:13 PM GMT on May 24, 2016

We're fast approaching the official June 1 start of the Atlantic hurricane season, and we already have an area of concern to watch for possible genesis of a tropical depression during the coming Memorial Day weekend. An area of low pressure is expected to form on Friday near to or a few hundred miles north of the Bahama Islands, and this low has the potential for tropical development as it moves northwest towards the Southeast U.S. coast. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) over the Bahamas are about 28 - 29°C (82 - 84°F), which is 1 - 2°C (1.8 - 3.6°F) above average. These waters are plenty warm enough to support formation of a tropical storm. Phase space diagrams from Florida State University have been consistently showing that this storm will be a symmetric warm core system, which is technical lingo for a storm that is tropical in nature, rather than subtropical or extratropical.


Figure 1. Departure of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from average for May 24, 2016. The Bahamas had SSTs that were 28 - 29°C (82 - 84°F), which is 1 - 2°C (1.8 - 3.6°F) above average. Image credit: tropicaltidbits.com.

Figure 2. Surface pressure (black contours) and 6-hour precipitation (in mm/hr) predicted for Saturday, May 28, 2016 at 2 am EDT (06Z) from the 8 am EDT (12Z) Tuesday, May 24 run of the GFS model. An area of low pressure with the potential to develop into a tropical depression was predicted to be near the coast of South Carolina. Image credit: tropicaltidbits.com.

What the models say: a heavy rain threat for the Southeast U.S. coast
In my 2013 blog post, Genesis of New Atlantic Tropical Cyclones: Which Model Should You Trust?, I explained that we have three models that have proven to be fairly reliable for predicting the genesis of tropical depressions up to four days in advance: the American GFS model, the European ECMWF model, and the British UKMET model. Over the past two days, the GFS and European models have been showing the potential for a tropical depression to form near or to the north of the Bahamas; the UKMET model has merely shown a tropical disturbance forming. The models have widely differing ideas on how much wind shear might be present, so it is too early to say if this weekend's system is a legitimate threat to develop into a tropical depression. The main concern for this weekend's low will be heavy rain over the northwest Bahamas and the Southeast U.S. coast, as the storm likely will not have enough time over water to become a strong tropical storm or hurricane. The GFS model is indicating a possible threat to the coasts of northern Florida, Georgia, or South Carolina early next week, while the European model takes the low farther to the north, to the coast of South Carolina or North Carolina. I'll keep you updated each day this week with the latest prognosis for this potential early-season storm. Should the storm over-achieve and become a tropical storm, it would be named Bonnie.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

178. wunderkidcayman


GFS shows no TS anymore for now.
And our future system does not originate from the Caribbean.
Thanks for the info Dr. Masters! As a resident of the South Carolina coast, I will definitely be reading those updates. Just glad I don't have any plans to travel this time around. ;)
things are already taking shape for the season


thanks for update



Quoting 3. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

There's a depicted wave IN Africa a few hundred miles from splash-down.
xx/xx/xx
Thanks Doc!
Thanks Dr. A few points as we near the start of the Atlantic season. Every year is the same (anticipation for the Atlantic Season) which is par for course for tropical weather enthusiasts. What no one on here knows is a) actually how many storms will form for the season; b) how the track/steering pattern and A-B high sets ups in August-September; c) the general trof pattern for the peak period; d) whether we will be neutral or La Nina for the peak; e) whether there will be any warm eddies in the GOM; f) what the SST's will be in the Central Atlantic MDR; g) what shear will actually be between now and November in any given region (and for any given storm); h) what SAL levels will look like by August/September; h) whether an actual hurricane will enter the Caribbean from a tropical wave; i) how many hurricanes may actually form west of 50W; j) how stable or unstable the air mass in the Western Atlantic off of SA will look like; j) what speed the Central Atlantic trades are going to settle into in August and September; k) when/if any Gulf oil rigs are going to be evacuated; l) whether Hispanola is going to become the bullet bag again breaking up storms headed towards Florida and Gulf; m) whether the Catholic Grotto in Key West is going to keep hurricanes away from them again this season; n) whether Grand Caiman is going to suffer a direct hit from a Cat 5; o) whether NHC is going to blow multiple intensity and cone forecasts this year in spite of model improvements; p) whether another oil spill in the Gulf is going to bring a chance of oil-mageddon when the slicks get sucked up into a major hurricane barreling down towards New Orleans; q) whether Miami and Miami Beach are going to be destroyed from a direct hit from a major (taking down the Fountainbleau Hotel on the way towards the mainland); r) whether we will have a record 5 storms before the peak in September; or r) whether a meteorite impact or major volcanic eruption between now and October will throw a monkey wrench in the whole equation..........................Just Sayin.
that's sayin a lot wannabe lol
@ post 7: you forgot the flamin' alligators.

Gotta have the flamin' alligators that get caught in the oil slicks, catch fire, and fly in the hurricane winds.

And you didn't even TOUCH on Spam recipes.
lol
NWS out of Raleigh/Durham N.C.
Link

Sat-Mon: There remains a high degree of uncertainty in the details,
but the overwhelming trend toward a more substantial influence from
the aforementioned low pressure near the southeast U.S coast
suggests we are likely to see an increase in clouds and
precipitation chances as the weekend wears on, some of which may
linger into early next week, as whatever becomes of the
aforementioned low pressure may get trapped beneath the higher
latitude ridging to the north. Thicknesses support temps slightly
above normal, though tempered by the increase in clouds.
Quoting 1. Gearsts:

178. wunderkidcayman


GFS shows no TS anymore for now.
And our future system does not originate from the Caribbean.


Umm yes it does and just because you created an animated gif only cutting out a few timeframes doesn't make you right

Anyway we just wait and see
either way all the energy gets pulled northwards into Bahamas/Fl area eventually
925 mb chart (about 2500 ft.)
Either way it develops or not it forms in Caribbean or Bahamas it's still gonna be a lot of rain for the NW-N central Caribbean/Bahamas/SE US over the next week or so
Quoting 12. wunderkidcayman:



Umm yes it does and just because you created an animated gif only cutting out a few timeframes doesn't make you right

Anyway we just wait and see
The frame is from 0 hours until genesis. I can't win the argument when you have such a huge bias for the Caribbean region.
let the games begin
I swear, Bonnie might ruin the end of my school year if it forms.
Quoting 17. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

let the games begin


Bring it on !
remember with hurricane season fast approaching rules of the road will also increase as well

Tip

Do not enter games of oneupmanship with bloggers you find to be annoying. You will be banned along side them, as your verbal jousts consume the space and time everyone else is sharing. If you come across a troll or another blogger whom you find to be irritating, please use the site reporting tools and move along do not engage or enrage
Quoting 20. wunderkidcayman:


No I don't
You have a huge bias for anything else but the Caribbean

Anyway as I stated on #15
Exactly... -_-
Was thinking along the same lines weathermanwannabe ... Reminds me of how the Christmas " Season " drumbeats seem to now start somewhere around Labor Day .. Just sayin ..

Quoting 7. weathermanwannabe:

Thanks Dr. A few points as we near the start of the Atlantic season. Every year is the same (anticipation for the Atlantic Season) which is par for course for tropical weather enthusiasts. What no one on here knows is a) actually how many storms will form for the season; b) how the track/steering pattern and A-B high sets ups in August-September; c) the general trof pattern for the peak period; d) whether we will be neutral or La Nina for the peak; e) whether there will be any warm eddies in the GOM; f) what the SST's will be in the Central Atlantic MDR; g) what shear will actually be between now and November in any given region (and for any given storm); h) what SAL levels will look like by August/September; h) whether an actual hurricane will enter the Caribbean from a tropical wave; i) how many hurricanes may actually form west of 50W; j) how stable or unstable the air mass in the Western Atlantic off of SA will look like; j) what speed the Central Atlantic trades are going to settle into in August and September; k) when/if any Gulf oil rigs are going to be evacuated; l) whether Hispanola is going to become the bullet bag again breaking up storms headed towards Florida and Gulf; m) whether the Catholic Grotto in Key West is going to keep hurricanes away from them again this season; n) whether Grand Caiman is going to suffer a direct hit from a Cat 5; o) whether NHC is going to blow multiple intensity and cone forecasts this year in spite of model improvements; p) whether another oil spill in the Gulf is going to bring a chance of oil-mageddon when the slicks get sucked up into a major hurricane barreling down towards New Orleans; q) whether Miami and Miami Beach are going to be destroyed from a direct hit from a major (taking down the Fountainbleau Hotel on the way towards the mainland); r) whether we will have a record 5 storms before the peak in September; or r) whether a meteorite impact or major volcanic eruption between now and October will throw a monkey wrench in the whole equation..........................Just Sayin.
Quoting 16. Gearsts:

The frame is from 0 hours until genesis. I can't win the argument when you have such a huge bias for the Caribbean region.


You cut off at 120

Anyway I'm waiting for the other models to come out
Your having your argument over one model
Thanks in advance for these daily updates you're promising us :-D
Latest research shows that the area where cyclones reach their maximum intensity has moved quite a bit over the course of the last century. Plan accordingly... Especially if you live on the East Coast.

The poleward migration of the location of tropical cyclone maximum intensity - Nature, 14 may 2014 :
Study by James P. Kossin, Kerry A. Emanuel & Gabriel A. Vecchi.

"(...) The poleward trends are evident in the global historical data in both the Northern and the Southern hemispheres, with rates of 53 and 62 kilometres per decade, respectively, and are statistically significant. When considered together, the trends in each hemisphere depict a global-average migration of tropical cyclone activity away from the tropics at a rate of about one degree of latitude per decade, which lies within the range of estimates of the observed expansion of the tropics over the same period. The global migration remains evident and statistically significant under a formal data homogenization procedure, and is unlikely to be a data artefact. The migration away from the tropics is apparently linked to marked changes in the mean meridional structure of environmental vertical wind shear and potential intensity, and can plausibly be linked to tropical expansion, which is thought to have anthropogenic contributions."
This is new!

CFS trending more active for peak season?

That area of stronger shear is because of TC to the north?
Quoting 18. Famoguy1234:

I swear, Bonnie might ruin the end of my school year if it forms.
Probably like another Anna but the waters are warmer compared to last year.
Is this thing going to hang around the SE coast all week, or will it move out after the weekend?
Quoting 27. washingtonian115:

Probably like another Anna but the waters are warmer compared to last year.


Models have been saying a storm for the past 4 days ill give this system a 6/10 chance of forming.

BLOBCON-4

I REPEAT BLOBCON-4
Quoting 29. CarolinaHurricanes87:

Is this thing going to hang around the SE coast all week, or will it move out after the weekend?
all week

Also, don't forget we have an Enhance Risk of severe weather today across the western Plains.



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST CO AND
SOUTHWEST NEB...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE EASTERN TX
PANHANDLE...WESTERN OK...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT
FOR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND
THE NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE. VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANOTHER FOCUSED SEVERE STORM THREAT AREA WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY TONIGHT.

...KS/OK/TX...
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DRYLINE OVER WEST TX...WITH A
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING E-W ACROSS NORTHERN OK. THIS
BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY WEAKENING...BUT WILL LIKELY BE IMPORTANT TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WEAK MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHENING BY EARLY
EVENING. THE RESULT WILL BE LIKELY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE DRYLINE OVER THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE...AND IN VICINITY OF THE
OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS PRESENT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND VERY STEEP
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OVER 4000 J/KG.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM WILL LIKELY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH A RISK
OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE APPEARS TO BE AN
ENHANCED RISK OF TORNADOES LATER TODAY NEAR THE DRYLINE/OUTFLOW
TRIPLE-POINT WHERE BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
SOME 12Z CAM SOLUTIONS ALSO SUGGEST A
RISK OF INTENSE SUPERCELLS SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IN
SOUTHWEST OK AS WELL. EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF THESE STORMS THROUGH
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT IS UNCERTAIN...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE ONGOING
SLIGHT RISK INTO NORTHEAST OK AND EASTERN KS.

...NORTHEAST CO/SOUTHWEST NEB...
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER EASTERN CO ARE TRANSPORTING
MOISTURE WESTWARD...WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 50S. MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE VERY CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
ALONG THE DENVER CYCLONE THIS AFTERNOON...AND TRACKING THESE CELLS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ENHANCED RISK AREA. VERY LARGE HAIL AND A
FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CORRIDOR. THE CLUSTER OF
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NEB THIS EVENING WITH A
CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT.

..HART/MOSIER.. 05/24/2016
Quoting 31. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

all week




"Houston, we are ready for hurricane tracking, I repeat, we are ready."
"Houston, were at BLOBCON4"
Quoting 25. 999Ai2016:

Thanks in advance for these daily updates you're promising us :-D
Latest research shows that the area where cyclones reach their maximum intensity has moved quite a bit over the course of the last century. Plan accordingly... Especially if you live on the East Coast.

The poleward migration of the location of tropical cyclone maximum intensity - Nature, 14 may 2014 :
"(...) The poleward trends are evident in the global historical data in both the Northern and the Southern hemispheres, with rates of 53 and 62 kilometres per decade, respectively, and are statistically significant. When considered together, the trends in each hemisphere depict a global-average migration of tropical cyclone activity away from the tropics at a rate of about one degree of latitude per decade, which lies within the range of estimates of the observed expansion of the tropics over the same period. The global migration remains evident and statistically significant under a formal data homogenization procedure, and is unlikely to be a data artefact. The migration away from the tropics is apparently linked to marked changes in the mean meridional structure of environmental vertical wind shear and potential intensity, and can plausibly be linked to tropical expansion, which is thought to have anthropogenic contributions."
Study by James P. Kossin, Kerry A. Emanuel & Gabriel A. Vecchi.


From the GFDL Global Warming and Hurricanes: An Overview of Current Research Results
Finally recent work (Kossin et al. 2014; see GFDL Research Highlight) indicates that the latitude at which the maximum intensity of tropical cyclones occurs has expanded poleward globally in recent decades, although the causes for this have not been firmly established and a significant change was not seen in the Atlantic basin statistics.



The study finds an overall shift northwards globally. No significant shift is detected in the Atlantic Basin
Quoting 30. Famoguy1234:



Models have been saying a storm for the past 4 days ill give this system a 6/10 chance of forming.

BLOBCON-4

I REPEAT BLOBCON-4


not yet relax only one blob caller here when he calls it then we may have something
Quoting 31. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

all week




I was afraid of that. Sunny all week this week, then rainy all week next week for my vacation (Hilton Head). I'm sad
.34 daddyjames :
The study finds an overall shift northwards globally. No significant shift is detected in the Atlantic Basin


I think I've jumped to my own conclusion too fast there. Thanks for correcting me.
We'll see what the next years bring though ;-)
Sandy and Joaquin kind of made me reconsider that growing risk, regarding the Atl. basin (though hurricanes did not wait for anthropogenic interference to strike up the East Coast, of course).
For entertainment purposes. The GEM doing what it does best. One day the GEM will get it right and then we'll be in trouble.
Quoting 39. Sfloridacat5:

For entertainment purposes. The GEM doing what it does best. One day the GEM will get it right and then we'll be in trouble.



Eventhough there models are a joke, WHAT IF!?!
Quoting 12. wunderkidcayman:



Umm yes it does and just because you created an animated gif only cutting out a few timeframes doesn't make you right

Anyway we just wait and see

Not sure where you're seeing the disturbance originates from the Caribbean? The surface low forecast to form will be the byproduct of vorticity at the tail-end of the front, as well as enhanced diffluence as the upper-level trough begins to tilt negatively.
i have been posting all along since the beginning of may, that conditions in the north atlantic hurricane areas were changing and that there will be more of an active season that first forecast. just waiting for the June forecasts.
the conditions in Nino 3 4 has now neutral with the likelihood of a La Nina come July.
I may be an amatuer, but I have this weird gut feeling Bonnie will form this Memorial Day weekend, and for those saying the GFS dropped it, remember last year with GFS forecasting storms 2 weeks in advance and then dropping them 4 or so days before they form? I know the model upgrade could have gotten rid of that, but still, we have to keep that in mind.

Could Bonnie be a less intense version of Arthur 2014 if that crazy model prediction by #39 comes true?
Quoting 40. Famoguy1234:



Eventhough there models are a joke, WHAT IF!?!

What if? Well, it's only a moderate tropical storm scraping the coastline in that run. I'm sure we'd all live.
Quoting 35. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


not yet relax only one blob caller here when he calls it then we may have something

I agree with you on this one, but sometimes we have to give the smart collective watch a chance. Or else if one day the expert is absent or just plain wrong we might be in trouble. that's only a general thought though ; I know and appreciate Gro's talents and dedication to the blog :-)
Quoting 39. Sfloridacat5:

For entertainment purposes. The GEM doing what it does best. One day the GEM will get it right and then we'll be in trouble.



Two years ago I pranked my fishing buddies on our upcoming Bahamas fishing trip with one of these GEM forecasts forecasting
a cat 2 over FLL (where some of us fly out of) during the Mid May trip. Full score, they fell for ten day out forecast hook line and sinker
and went nuts about what this would do to our plans :-)

Thanks for the update Dr. Masters...
First week of hurricane season and potential for a storm. This blog is going to explode come Monday.
Quoting 35. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



not yet relax only one blob caller here when he calls it then we may have something


Ghost Storm alerts on the other hand can be issued by anyone.
Quoting 37. 999Ai2016:

.34 daddyjames :
The study finds an overall shift northwards globally. No significant shift is detected in the Atlantic Basin


I think I've jumped to my own conclusion too fast there. Thanks for correcting me.
We'll see what the next years bring though ;-)
Sandy and Joaquin kind of made me reconsider that growing risk, regarding the Atl. basin (though hurricanes did not wait for anthropogenic interference to strike up the East Coast, of course).


No prob, just keepin it real.
Go to the site I linked. They discuss various topics of hurricane research, what recent studies and their own research indicates. Gives a good summary of recent research and what models indicate may occur in the future.
Good afternoon

Trying and will it make it... that's the question.

Quoting 49. gator23:



Ghost Storm alerts on the other hand can be issued by anyone.


Ghost storms are my favorite- they aren't real.
No Blobcon yet!
In terms of the potential for a Memorial Day Weekend system, we will not have a handle on the possibility, until Friday (regardless of what the models are saying today), to see if a low actually forms concurrently with a pre-existing disturbance. Essentially looking like a rainy weekend for sure around Florida and potential development if a low also forms. SST's are not an issue but shear will be if it does not relax a bit more by Saturday and Sunday; just my personal opinion at the moment:




TA13 - since you made this statement:
Quoting 397. TropicalAnalystwx13:


If this is a depression with a Dvorak of T1.5, then I'm a 90ft pink dinosaur wearing a tutu.

Hint: I'm not.


All I picture is this:
Quoting 56. Grothar:

No Blobcon yet!


get my WUmail? I need one - quick ;)
Quoting 60. daddyjames:



get my WUmail? I need one - quick ;)


Nothing in there except from yesterday, which I answered
Euro Memorial Day
Quoting 61. Grothar:



Nothing in there except from yesterday, which I answered


Got it - for some reason not letting me know you had replied.
That strong ULL centered just on the US NE coast over CT/MS is dominating the large-scale synoptic environment off the Eastern Seaboard all the way to the Bahamas at them moment; arguably, shear should relax a bit over the next few days as the low retro-grades North as currently forecast:

GFS and now CMC, have been hinting at another area of Low pressure forming south of DR, and moving NE affecting PR. GFS has more of a trough with abundant moisture moving over PR, and then forms the low NE of PR, while the new CMC has a low moving through the Mona passage intensifying as it does so. We all know the CMC in the long range is something else. This is something I will be keeping an eye on, just in case. Any other models suggesting this?





Quoting 58. VAbeachhurricanes:


Quoting 62. VAbeachhurricanes:

Euro Memorial Day



euro further S


just saying
Quoting 65. 882MB:

GFS and now CMC, have been hinting at another area of Low pressure forming south of DR, and moving NE affecting PR. GFS has more of a trough with abundant moisture moving over PR, and then forms the low NE of PR, while the new CMC has a low moving through the Mona passage intensifying as it does so. We all know the CMC in the long range is something else. But this is something I will be keeping an eye on, just in case. Any other models suggesting this?








Euro showing second system
as well as NAVGEM
well I guess it must be tropical season lets hope for the best run from the worse
Euro has a stronger round two lol


Quoting 56. Grothar:

No Blobcon yet!



Are we in
pre-blob mode - or- blobus-tobeus?
Its not even Hurricane season yet, and here we are tracking now 2 potential systems. Active times ahead ;)
Dat tremor!
Quoting 72. Gearsts:

Dat tremor!


Earthquake?
Quoting 73. VAbeachhurricanes:



Earthquake?
Yes small one but can't find any info yet. I live in Aguadilla PR.
Quoting 74. Gearsts:

Yes small one but can't find any info yet. I live in Aguadilla PR.


How long ago was this, I been in my room and have not felt anything, and I live pretty close to Aguadilla.
Well, well, well!
Quoting 56. Grothar:

No Blobcon yet!


Satellite and water vapor imagery show possible blobation with strong convection growth. Shear remains a big problem though lower shear to the 15-20kt range should push in later in the week. Possibly lower, but unlikely unless this possible invest can begin to create it's own atmosphere. Blob watch, do you Gro see this going to a blob warning soon? May system, pretty rare. Hard to top our January masterpiece.
Guess it's time to get back on the blog... Let's make 2016 the worst (best) hurricane season since 2005!
Quoting 75. 882MB:



How long ago was this, I been in my room and have not felt anything, and I live pretty close to Aguadilla.
5 minutes ago. 7 People here felt it or i guess it was something else.

Quoting 75. 882MB:



How long ago was this, I been in my room and have not felt anything, and I live pretty close to Aguadilla.
I live down in Ponce and didn't feel anything either.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0705
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0125 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241825Z - 242030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING JUST NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
MAY INTENSIFY AND DEVELOP INTO A CLUSTER WITH PRIMARY RISKS OF
ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND.

DISCUSSION...18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A WAVY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ALONG THE NORTHEAST OK/SOUTHEAST KS BORDER DOWN INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
OK AND UP INTO SOUTHWEST KS. A TRIO OF CELLS RECENTLY DEVELOPED
ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. AMID A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH
MLCAPE OF 3000-3500 J/KG...THESE CELLS MAY EVOLVE INTO A CLUSTER /AS
SIMULATED BY THE 17Z NCEP-PARALLEL-HRRR/. WITH REGIONAL VWP DATA
DEPICTING INDICATIONS OF VEER-BACK WINDS FROM 0-3 KM AGL AND STRONG
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW LIKELY CONFINED WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST...HODOGRAPH SHAPE APPEARS UNFAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING
DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. BUT GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
AND PRESENCE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...IT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE THAT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT MAY OCCUR.

..GRAMS/HART.. 05/24/2016



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 203
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM MDT TUE MAY 24 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST COLORADO

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1240 PM UNTIL
800 PM MDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

its getting dark outside, and I hear the rumble of thunder - so I'll be signing off. Stay safe everyone, and have a good one!
Quoting 70. rmbjoe1954:




Are we in
pre-blob mode - or- blobus-tobeus?



blobus almostus.
Re:74
https://www.facebook.com/redsismicadepuertorico/? fref=nf
Nothing up on the seismic monitor site yet but if Yall felt it, it will trickle over the site shortly: the 4.2 around Hispanola was on May 19th.





Quoting 82. Grothar:



blobus almostus.
AOI/XX/XX IN 72 HRS FROM NOW
Quoting 77. DeepSeaRising:



Satellite and water vapor imagery show possible blobation with strong convection growth. Shear remains a big problem though lower shear to the 15-20kt range should push in later in the week. Possibly lower, but unlikely unless this possible invest can begin to create it's own atmosphere. Blob watch, do you Gro see this going to a blob warning soon? May system, pretty rare. Hard to top our January masterpiece.


This will be slow. I don't see anything until tomorrow.

Current low level convergence



Wind shear analysis.



I'm also watching this.




Quoting 83. STXpat:

Re:74
https://www.facebook.com/redsismicadepuertorico/? fref=nf

I'm not crazy yess!
The models want to have a Bonnie and Clyde scenario happen lol.I'm still very much skeptical but if we do indeed get two tropical systems for the beginning of the hurricane season I'm sure it will exhaust a lot of bloggers out before the heart of the season.This is only just the beginning....and those caribbean waters have yet to be tapped.Models don't suggest anything forming near the Caymans though.
NHC, when are you gonna get out your yellow crayon and invest this thing?

Quoting 86. Grothar:



This will be slow. I don't see anything until tomorrow.

Current low level convergence



Wind shear analysis.



I'm also watching this.







Is the purple blip this?

but before i go:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0706
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST KS TO EAST TX PANHANDLE/WEST OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241931Z - 242130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL...A FEW TORNADIC STORMS...AND
ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A CYCLONE NEAR HAMILTON
COUNTY KS WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL TX
PANHANDLE...A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL KS AND ANOTHER CONFLUENT BOUNDARY THROUGH NORTHWEST
OK. THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR AIR MASS IS STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
OF 2500-3500 J/KG AMID UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS.
HIGH-BASED CU HAS COMMENCED BEHIND THE DRYLINE IN THE TX PANHANDLE
AND STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TIED TO THE
LEFT-EXIT REGION OF AN APPROACHING SUBTROPICAL UPPER JET SHOULD
RESULT IN STORM INITIATION BY 21Z. FARTHER NORTH....CLUMPING CU NEAR
THE CYCLONE SHOULD INITIATE INTO STORMS IN A SIMILAR TIME FRAME.

VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 9 DEG C/KM FROM 700-500 MB AS
SAMPLED BY 19Z AMA RAOB WILL BE QUITE CONDUCIVE TO INTENSE UPDRAFT
ACCELERATION ONCE STORMS INITIATE. AS SUCH...VERY LARGE HAIL SHOULD
BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL HAZARD. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS THIS
EVENING...TORNADO/WIND POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY INCREASE TOWARDS 00Z.

..GRAMS/HART.. 05/24/2016

Quoting 89. HurricaneFan:

NHC, when are you gonna get out your yellow crayon and invest this thing?


30%
An area of showers and thunderstorms over the western Atlantic Ocean
near and northeast of the Bahamas is associated with the
interaction of an upper-level trough and a weakening cold front.
While development is not expected for the next couple of days,
environmental conditions could become more conducive for some
tropical or subtropical development by Friday. This area of
disturbed weather is expected to move slowly west-northwestward or
northwestward and gradually approach the southeastern United
States over the next few days. The next Special Tropical Weather
Outlook will be issued by 4 PM EDT Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent
Oh Well; the Blog traffic is going to double over the next few days......................................Technica lly speaking, this will qualify as a frontal remnant assuming there is enough of a remnant left-over near the Bahamas as the ULL to the North lifts out.



Quoting 38. wunderkidcayman:



Flagged
No I never been like anything
And I shave so no mustache:P

I'm sorry to hear you shaved it off. This just proves my point. Personally, I think you seemed happier with it. It made you look like Burt Reynolds or Tom Selleck.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 241935
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
335 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of showers and thunderstorms over the western Atlantic Ocean
near and northeast of the Bahamas is associated with the
interaction of an upper-level trough and a weakening cold front.
While development is not expected for the next couple of days,
environmental conditions could become more conducive for some
tropical or subtropical development by Friday. This area of
disturbed weather is expected to move slowly west-northwestward or
northwestward and gradually approach the southeastern United
States over the next few days. The next Special Tropical Weather
Outlook will be issued by 4 PM EDT Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake
Quoting 92. Gearsts:

30%

LOL, the NHC just did that as I posted that... :P
NHC Atlantic Ops ‏@NHC_Atlantic 4m4 minutes ago
A special tropical weather outlook has been issued for a system NE of the Bahamas.
Quoting 87. Gearsts:

I'm not crazy yess!


This from USGS:
3.7
0km NNE of Stella, Puerto Rico
2016-05-24 18:54:33 UTC
22.0 km

3.2
29km WNW of Aguadilla, Puerto Rico
2016-05-24 05:09:47 UTC
83.0 km
Well that should put to rest any talks of this coming from or impacting the NW Caribbean. Looking for shear to drop in the area. NW Florida up to the mid-Atlantic should keep one eye on this. The Gulf Stream is warm right now.
101. 882MB
Quoting 99. Greg01:



This from USGS:
3.7
0km NNE of Stella, Puerto Rico
2016-05-24 18:54:33 UTC
22.0 km

3.2
29km WNW of Aguadilla, Puerto Rico
2016-05-24 05:09:47 UTC
83.0 km



The 3.7 was the one Gearst felt. Very near his location.
I see we in business now with the potential development area on the NHC page..

Time for some to F5 every update now..

From the NWS, Wilmington, NC

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

As of 3 PM Tuesday... Model agreement regarding the area of
disturbed weather just east of the Bahamas is getting hard to
ignore. The agreement is related to the fact that they all develop
low pressure out of this mass of convection that is likely at least
partly warm core. Where the agreement trails off is with respect to
the path and timing of said low. This will have large local forecast
ramifications as models like the GFS that decidedly bring it into
the SC coast would imply a fairly wet weekend maybe lasting into
early next week as the system meanders. Other solutions that keep
the meandering motion offshore through the period could keep us in
the subsiding and drier area west of the low/trough. Should we
remain outside of the effects of the system then with a building
upper ridge off the coast we may not have very strong forcing for
precipitation. But since even since the latest 12Z ECMWF brings
associated moisture ashore by Saturday will keep the forecast as-is
showing a rise in POPs Saturday as well as tempered afternoon highs.
When and where this features comes ashore may be in for a long wet
period as it will be quite slow to move stuck under the
aforementioned ridge aloft.
Ah, the "weakening cold front." The trigger for many storms early and late in the season. Has a blob officially been declared? Nothing can happen without an official blob declaration.
A blob has been invested!
I will track it, I have a feeling at least one of the storms will form in these coming two weeks.
Ahhh classic CMC :) Having two hurricanes roaming the atlantic.lol.The CMC is like that excited weather troll that is always advertising doom and devastation to occur.
Hmm NHC has brought out the yellow crayon over Bahamas I still say it will either shift yellow S or second yellow circle later this week
Quoting 104. Bucsboltsfan:

Ah, the "weakening cold front." The trigger for many storms early and late in the season. Has a blob officially been declared? Nothing can happen without an official blob declaration.
not yet closes declaration so far was

Quoting 82. Grothar:



blobus almostus.
Either way still gonna give us a ton of rain no matter
Quoting 111. wunderkidcayman:

Hmm NHC has brought out the yellow crayon over Bahamas I still say it will either shift yellow S or second yellow circle later this week


O c'mon! Shifting south and another I'm assuming in the Caribbean?
For Puerto Rico...

That is a LOT of rain.
Of course it's just a prediction though...
Also, notice high precipitation around Jacksonville and Savannah and in the center of the Caribbean Sea.
and Panama!
and that area near Arkansas... rain everywhere, but none in the Gulf of Mexico

BTW this is just the CMC
2016 Storms



Atlantic



East Pacific



Central Pacific



West Pacific


green ball90W.INVEST



Indian Ocean



Southern Hemisphere
The 12z Euro has almost nine inches of rain for Myrtle Beach in the 10 day period..not much support in the Euro ensemble package for development..

The models are still all over the place in where the system will track but GA and SC seem to have the most solutions..

From the WPC..Click to enlarge..



Quoting 116. ThatHurricane:

For Puerto Rico...

That is a LOT of rain.


Speaking of rain - flash flood warning for my neck of the woods . . .


FLASH FLOOD WARNING
OKC119-242300-
/O.NEW.KOUN.FF.W.0023.160524T2057Z-160524T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
357 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL PAYNE COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT

* AT 357 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN OVER NORTHERN PAYNE COUNTY. UP TO TWO INCHES
OF RAIN HAS FALLEN.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED
AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE. TURN
AROUND... DONT DROWN.

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 3616 9682 3616 9662 3603 9662 3603 9684
3608 9707 3620 9715 3624 9714 3625 9701
3625 9682

$$
Quoting 111. wunderkidcayman:

Hmm NHC has brought out the yellow crayon over Bahamas I still say it will either shift yellow S or second yellow circle later this week
Took me hours of editing with Edius Pro, Sony vegas and photoshop but i finally got it.

;)
Quoting 118. ncstorm:

The 12z Euro has almost nine inches of rain for Myrtle Beach in the 10 day period..

The models are still all over the place in where the system will track but GA and SC seem to have the most solutions..

From the WPC..Click to enlarge..




that's what I am seeing GA SC it may even meander close to ne fla Jackson visit water puppy maybe but I will wait till a full fledge invest is posted too decide
(watchin' and lurkin' here, keep)
not a tropical model but 18z nam depicts this at 48hr time frame at 925mb level

Quoting 114. luvtogolf:



O c'mon! Shifting south and another I'm assuming in the Caribbean?


Wouldn't be the first time NHC has done it

No I saying either the Bahamas circle shifts S or a new yellow circle in the Caribbean

I see two options here system starts in the W Caribbean moves into Bahamas then towards E coast of Florida or a weak vortex max moves from West-central Caribbean (between Cayman Jamaica and Cuba) into Bahamas the weak vortex get a bit stronger to form a weak 1009-1013mb low system move in towards SE US mean while a second vort Max gets kicking in SW Caribbean that moves N-NNE into the NW-N central Caribbean and into Bahamas
Quoting 122. aquak9:

(watchin' and lurkin' here, keep)
I know mostly a rain event for the most part winds will be n and ne of system
Quoting 120. Gearsts:

Took me hours of editing with Edius Pro, Sony vegas and photoshop but i finally got it.

;)


O come on your latching on to one model
kid ya got to relax a little long long season ahead of us friend
That moment you keep realizing Hurricane Season is still a week away.


18z running
Quoting 128. Climate175:

That moment you keep realizing Hurricane Season is still a week away.
not this year its been hurricane season since January
Quoting 126. wunderkidcayman:



O come on your latching on to one model

I just woke up I'm looking at all the comments lol its so funny everyone so excited about this blob I think it will track more south west than anticipated but we will see
It is really warm off the coast of Florida and any surface low that gets into that area with little to no shear is likely to develop. Well if it has enough time over water at least. I'm excited we have a little something to track and with NHC at a 30% chance in 5 days I'm pretty confident we will get something to form right around the start of the season.
Refreshing and no new posts, I think the Blog is stuck at post 134!
Quoting 131. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

not this year its been hurricane season since January
Yep, that's the truth.
I guess it was just slow, people must still not know about the possible development near the Bahamas!
Quoting 111. wunderkidcayman:

Hmm NHC has brought out the yellow crayon over Bahamas I still say it will either shift yellow S or second yellow circle later this week


I hesitate to think what some readers here would do with Harold's Purple Crayon.

Quoting 137. 69Viking:

I guess it was just slow, people must still not know about the possible development near the Bahamas!
You'll enjoy the "calm before the storm" effect going on here for now because if "Bonnie" spins up and is approaching land it won't be as quite.The models are also showing potential "Colin" so enjoy it now while it last because it won't.
Quoting 137. 69Viking:

I guess it was just slow, people must still not know about the possible development near the Bahamas!
lot are getting ready to eat along the east coast that time of day or should I say early evening now just getting in sitting down thinking about what to eat or already starting to eat
looks like we need to watch for strong tornados this PM and eveing tornado watch 204 is on the borader line of PDS
(yellow rice, string beans n tomatoes from the garden, boneless pork loin slices from the grill)
Quoting 142. aquak9:

(yellow rice, string beans n tomatoes from the garden, boneless pork loin slices from the grill)
Sounds good Aqua :).I'm having smeared steak with mushroom gravy and roasted asparagus and squash.I'm just waiting for the gravy to finish cooking and then its dinner time.
So, I just watched the second tornado-warned storm of the year from my office. It never got terribly organized, but watching all the energy - boiling, spinning clouds, rapid updraft - was amazing.







Quoting 126. wunderkidcayman:



O come on your latching on to one model
Just having fun.
Well maybe not tropical but it would be kinda awkward to deal with...


SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
335 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of showers and thunderstorms over the western Atlantic Ocean
near and northeast of the Bahamas is associated with the
interaction of an upper-level trough and a weakening cold front.
While development is not expected for the next couple of days,
environmental conditions could become more conducive for some
tropical or subtropical development by Friday. This area of
disturbed weather is expected to move slowly west-northwestward or
northwestward and gradually approach the southeastern United
States over the next few days. The next Special Tropical Weather
Outlook will be issued by 4 PM EDT Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

Forecaster Blake
There was Beryly a tropical storm on Memorial Day in 2012 right?

PS this is my 13,000th comment. Who knows what will happen now!


Well, if this pans out, the streak of Hail "not-so-large-as-to-dent-the-car" will come to an end.

hail already starting up outside :(
Quoting 144. gunhilda:

So, I just watched the second tornado-warned storm of the year from my office. It never got terribly organized, but watching all the energy - boiling, spinning clouds, rapid updraft - was amazing.










Yes it was gh! I was standing out side as things were swirling around above Stillwater. Hang onto your hat as things are not done yet!
Quoting 149. daddyjames:



Well, if this pans out, the streak of Hail "not-so-large-as-to-dent-the-car" will come to an end.

hail already starting up outside :(


Dang it. Here it comes.
Quoting 138. georgevandenberghe:



I hesitate to think what some readers here would do with Harold's Purple Crayon.




I think I've seen NHC only use that purple twice
ANAstly, Ana would be a good analog for this storm trackwise if the models pan out.

Quoting 148. BaltimoreBrian:

There was beryly a tropical storm on Memorial Day in 2012 right?


Beryl made landfall MAy 28th, so basically
Quoting 149. daddyjames:



Well, if this pans out, the streak of Hail "not-so-large-as-to-dent-the-car" will come to an end.

hail already starting up outside :(


Seems to have weakened just in time - whew. Hail quickly diminished in size.
Quoting 148. BaltimoreBrian:

There was beryly a tropical storm on Memorial Day in 2012 right?

PS this is my 13,000th comment. Who knows what will happen now!


nop your still at 12,999

Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 27 Comments: 12999
Looks like SSD attempted a Bahamas Floater, but failed. Next best is the Caribbean Imagery.
Canadian wildfire soot may accelerate Greenland ice melt - Minnesota Public Radio / Paul Huttner, May 18, 2016
"Soot particles from the Canadian fires may already be changing the reflectivity of the Greenland ice sheet in 2016."

"That dark snow changes the reflectivity, or albedo of snow cover. The darker surfaces allow more absorption of sunlight, and lead to more rapid snow and ice melt in summer.
Soot from the wildfires lands on ice and snow thousands of miles away in places like Greenland. That causes faster melt which warms the Arctic atmosphere. It also injects massive amounts of freshwater from the melting ice sheet into the ocean to boost sea level rises more quickly.
Now we watch this summer to see how rapidly ice in the Arctic responds to the injection of fire soot from the still ongoing Canadian wildfires."


- And in other parts of the cryosphere : The Himalayas from 20,000 ft (HQ 1080p VIDEO (!)
- And from higher still : Meet Jeff Williams, Astronaut and Space Photographer (on Twitter)

Mount Everest, by Jeff Williams.
I'm not personally excited by the tropical development potential. A possible tropical system developing from an old non-tropical system off the east coast is pretty much a broken record from the past few hurricane seasons. I've probably had dreams about such a lame occurrence repeating so often :)
Quoting 152. wunderkidcayman:



I think I've seen NHC only use that purple twice
what's the purple do?
Storm that moved through Payne County, OK is tornado warned again:

TORNADO WARNING
OKC037-242245-
/O.NEW.KTSA.TO.W.0035.160524T2221Z-160524T2245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
521 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL CREEK COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 521 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES EAST OF SHAMROCK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
45 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
BRISTOW... SAPULPA...
KIEFER... MOUNDS...
KELLYVILLE... SLICK...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 187 AND 205.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN
A MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3599 9653 3597 9603 3586 9603 3585 9619
3569 9619 3587 9656
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 293DEG 41KT 3591 9648

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN
Quoting 139. washingtonian115:

You'll enjoy the "calm before the storm" effect going on here for now because if "Bonnie" spins up and is approaching land it won't be as quite.The models are also showing potential "Colin" so enjoy it now while it last because it won't.
Yep case in point Joaquin last year. Before it was pretty quiet then Joaquin formed and a heck broke loose. There was at least 50 comments an hour about is Joaquin going to hit Florida? Which granted was not surprising considering the closeness, but still it was bad. That wasn't even a storm that was projected to hit the U.S with certianity.
Quoting 158. Jedkins01:

I'm not personally excited by the tropical development potential. A possible tropical system developing from an old non-tropical system off the east coast is pretty much a broken record from the past few hurricane seasons. I've probably had dreams about such a lame occurrence repeating so often :)
ya true enough but its always nice to get a little kicker off the season startup thingy
I agree with Jedkins. It may "develop", it may not. Either way, this is such a run of the mill situation, especially with what we've seen the past few years. Us talking about it is just a product of how closely watched everything is these days. Still, give credit to the models (and the humans)- it's not always easy to highlight disturbances like this that could become weak/short lived tropical cyclones. We've seen this coming for several days.
Quoting 162. Geoboy645:

Yep case in point Joaquin last year. Before it was pretty quiet then Joaquin formed and a heck broke loose. There was at least 50 comments an hour about is Joaquin going to hit Florida? Which granted was not surprising considering the closeness, but still it was bad. That wasn't even a storm that was projected to hit the U.S with certianity.
waters are warm be wild if it starts same as it ended like doc said it could be an over-achiever a surprise will not be good
Supercells hooking up fast through Kansas. That monster in eastern Oklahoma is hefty too.
xx/xx/xx
Quoting 164. MAweatherboy1:

I agree with Jedkins. It may "develop", it may not. Either way, this is such a run of the mill situation, especially with what we've seen the past few years. Us talking about it is just a product of how closely watched everything is these days. Still, give credit to the models (and the humans)- it's not always easy to highlight disturbances like this that could become weak/short lived tropical cyclones. We've seen this coming for several days.


Sure, we have seen the Beryls of the world flop and Arthur look pretty but do little, for many it begins to feel run of the mill. That's when mother nature has us right where she wants us. Just when we get bored, complacency sets in for those of us who aren't weather and climate geeks. For you two, you'll be missing this show. :) I bet those affected by the historic flooding in South Carolina are watching this system carefully. Joaquin was born of that ULL and was just run of the mill until it wasn't. We'll see how far shear can drop for this invest. One never knows. What we've seen worldwide is shocking. Pacific blew up last year. We'll get our turn again. AGW is creating extreme patterns obviously, we'll have our next 2005 sooner than later imo.
Tornado on the ground heading towards Dodge City, KS. PDS tornado warning.
Right out of the textbook:

Hope blobus hypus stays offshore and spares any land of flooding. Personally my biggest concern.

Offshore gives me better waves as well.
New roof to be installed on my house here in Charleston next Tues, guess that will be postponed
Early-season systems seem to always be lop-sided affairs that rarely offer much wind. But only god knows the future.
Violent tornado outbreak over Kansas. So far missing populated areas. All four major supercells in Kansas tornado warned currently.
lol @ the ECMWF being all cute and dropping it on the 12z run.
Quoting 174. DeepSeaRising:

Violent tornado outbreak over Kansas. So far missing populated areas. All four major supercells in Kansas tornado warned currently.


bubbling up good

Quoting 175. KoritheMan:

lol @ the ECMWF being all cute and dropping it on the 12z run.
lol watch they all drop it tonight
Do we have any live streams of the Kansas outbreak yet?
Quoting 178. RyanSperrey:

Do we have any live streams of the Kansas outbreak yet?


http://severestudios.com/
Quoting 179. daddyjames:



http://severestudios.com/


Then click on Kelley Williamson.
Quoting 175. KoritheMan:

lol @ the ECMWF being all cute and dropping it on the 12z run.


The Euro did not drop it it just dropped a tropical storm there will still be something obviously
Wow this tornado outbreak is just unreal. Most of the storm chasers have a funnel on cam.

http://www.severestudios.com/livechase/
"Dodge city" how ironic in this situation.
Quoting 174. DeepSeaRising:

Violent tornado outbreak over Kansas. So far missing populated areas. All four major supercells in Kansas tornado warned currently.


Having been through Kansas, it isn't all that hard to miss a population center...

Still glad they did though!
Wow, biggest tornado outbreak of the season just popped out of nowhere. Coverage of these tornadic storms is impressive, afraid they are so clustered over Kansas that major damage reports will be likely as the evening progresses. Was 5% tornado risk given by SPC for area earlier today. Been so many ho hum elevated risk days over these areas that most people didn't give today a second thought with the tornado risk relatively low forecast wise. I hope people are okay, smart severe aware people in Kansas.
Crazy Tornado Outbreak in Kansas I've never seen anything like it. Watching Weather channel live and they believe 1 storm produced about 8 different Tornadoes. There was twin tornadoes right next to each other multiple times. Hopefully not much damage occurred
This supercell will go down in history.
Quoting 186. DeepSeaRising:

Wow, biggest tornado outbreak of the season just popped out of nowhere. Coverage of these tornadic storms is impressive, afraid they are so clustered over Kansas that major damage reports will be likely as the evening progresses. Was 5% tornado risk given by SPC for area earlier today. Been so many ho hum elevated risk days over these areas that most people didn't give today a second thought with the tornado risk relatively low forecast wise. I hope people are okay, smart severe aware people in Kansas.


Not even close - only 14 reported today:

Top Ten Tornado Days of 2016
Rank Date Tornadoes
1 02/23/16 52
2 04/26/16 34
3 05/09/16 31
4 02/15/16 29
5 02/24/16 27
6 05/22/16 26
7 03/31/16 23
8 04/27/16 22
9 05/10/16 21
10 02/02/16 20
* Tornado numbers are preliminary and subject to revision.

Edit: Data from NWS Storm Prediction Center Annual Severe Weather Report Summary 2016
Classic tornado outbreak.
Sometime around 1645, William Pynchon wrote down the names given to the full moons by a tribe of Abenaki Indians in northern New England.

The year started with the spring moon, according to Pynchon. It was known as Squannikesos, "When they set Indian corne' in part of April and part of May."

The second month, in late May and June, was 'moonesquan nimockkesos.' Pynchon described it as "when women weed theire corne."

3. Towwakesos--when they hill Ind[ian] corne (pt of June & pt of July)

4. matterl lawawkesos--when squashes are ripe & Ind[ian]beans begin to be eatable
[5.] micheeneekesos -- when Ind corne is eatable

6. pah[?]quitaqunkkesos--ye middle between harvest & eating Ind corne

7. pepewarr--because: of white frost on ye grass & grain

8. quinnikesos

9. papsapquoho, about ye 6.th day of January or, Lowatannassick: So caled because: they account it ye middle of winter.

10. Squo chee kesos--because ye sun hath strength to thaw

11. Wapicummilcom--because ye ice in ye river is all gone (pt of February & pt of March)

12. Namassack kesos--because of catching fish (pt of March & pt of April)
Quoting 102. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


So it looks like the low-shear col area east of the Bahamas we were talking about last night is where this thing is going to coalesce..... where is that first Twave?
sunset falls


From NHC

Tropical wave extends from 04N77W to 13N77W moving W at 10-15 kt.
The wave is located within the southwestern periphery of a mid-
level ridge anchored over the SW North Atlc waters near
21N65W and broad mid-level troughing between 70W and 82W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is mainly over Panama
ahead of the tropical wave axis.
daddy james your absolutely right. We'll see where the day ends up. Thinking 30-35, maybe more in revisions with all the individual twisters put down by multiple supercells. Maybe push the daily total high for this year. Slowing down now, that's good.
What is the hurricane forecast from Dr.Master's?Have not seen it yet.
LinkTAFB 3-day forecast:



Whether the low spins up or not, it certainly is in position to be the source of some tropical mischief during the early part of the season. COuld be either side of the isthmus, too.
Quoting 197. GeoffreyWPB:


Nothing much for now.....
189. Yea, you can expect way more than 14 reports today.
201. IDTH
What did I just miss? I was gone for a while and I saw that Kansas got hit hard.
Quoting 199. BahaHurican:

Nothing much for now.....

not till Thursday morning after the heat of the day kicks in
possible low level invest shortly after noon
then a soaker for the weekend for se

ne fla n nw ward from there
I go away from the computer for 3 hours to play video games and guess what happens. Tornado outbreak with a very cyclic storm that pulled out all the tornado tropes from the past 3 years. And when I'm paying attention like a hawk total bust.
Quoting 198. BahaHurican:

LinkTAFB 3-day forecast:



Whether the low spins up or not, it certainly is in position to be the source of some tropical mischief during the early part of the season. COuld be either side of the isthmus, too.


Maybe the start of the EPAC season on this low....
Quoting 201. IDTH:

What did I just miss? I was gone for a while and I saw that Kansas got hit hard.

A tornado outbreak across the Central Plains. One supercell produced 9 different tornadoes, with 3 instances of 2 simultaneous tornadoes. Other damaging tornadoes touched down in Nebraska, Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas.
looks like this tornado out break has peak and is now widding down looks like the next tornado out break is on day 3 on the SPC outlook
Quoting 204. PedleyCA:


Maybe the start of the EPAC season on this low....
that's a quasi stationary low ped its always there just keeps moving around and a around in a quasi stationary pattern
Also there was a tornado near Marquette Michigan today too.
Quoting 197. GeoffreyWPB:



Some more diurnal convection and we'll be dangerously close to a ghost storm alert being issued.
Quoting 202. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


not till Thursday morning after the heat of the day kicks in
possible low level invest shortly after noon
then a soaker for the weekend for se

ne fla n nw ward from there

This is a very specific timeline. Right down to the hour!
212. IDTH
Quoting 206. TropicalAnalystwx13:


A tornado outbreak across the Central Plains. One supercell produced 9 different tornadoes, with 3 instances of 2 simultaneous tornadoes. Other damaging tornadoes touched down in Nebraska, Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas.

That's disastrous! I hope there aren't many casualties. I never like hearing about tornado outbreaks ever since the year that was 2011. I will never forget watching TWC's coverage of the super outbreak and the Joplin tornado.
Quoting 206. TropicalAnalystwx13:


A tornado outbreak across the Central Plains. One supercell produced 9 different tornadoes, with 3 instances of 2 simultaneous tornadoes. Other damaging tornadoes touched down in Nebraska, Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas.


how is day 3 looking could we have a repeat of today events ?
Quoting 210. gator23:


Some more diurnal convection and we'll be dangerously close to a ghost storm alert being issued.


Bust of a storm wow :P

just kidding guys i promise
Quoting 214. JrWeathermanFL:



Bust of a storm wow :P

just kidding guys i promise

Bust of season really ;-)
Quoting 215. gator23:


Bust of season really ;-)


We haven't had a single storm in 4 months!
Hi I wanted to post my seasonal forecast for the upcoming hurricane Season 14/7/3
When I'm in Firefox for WU I get a message about a script running and it freezes up my entire browser...

It becomes annoying so when I go to Chrome I dont have an option to post any comments..

WU need to fix these bugs..



Quoting 213. Tazmanian:



how is day 3 looking could we have a repeat of today events ?

Thursday looks very active across a more widespread area. I wouldn't be surprised at a Moderate risk eventually.
Looks like a home grown season Carb & Gulf!
Quoting 205. Grothar:





I just moved back to Gulf Breeze 2 miles from the Gulf if we get a storm it will be in my back yard!!!
Quoting 220. gulfbreeze:

Looks like a home grown season Carb & Gulf!


yes I think that is true note the area that we need to watch looks like it will form south of where the GFS shows it so I would say the eastern gulf is not out of this one yet
oooo, gulfbreeze- glad to have an oldtimer with us !
Just my historical perspective. Almost every year about this time some form of low pressure forms from the Keys to the Carolinas. All too often it is nothing serious but enough times it bears watching if for nothing else it could be a big rainmaker. I always think of this time and the storm or two as the wake up bell that tells us to be prepared and to pay attention to the Tropical season that is fast approaching. So pay attention. Make sure you are prepared. And remember this is just the beginning. And while you are at it>>>> Have fun prognosticating and analyzing. Some of the things you learn could save your life or simply be a reason to have too many foodstufs on hand. Nothing wrong with that!
226. MZT
I agree with Queenswreath - I remember many prior seasons beginning like this. These lows track up the Space Coast and sometimes do not get named, or sometimes barely get named.
Quoting 224. aquak9:

oooo, gulfbreeze- glad to have an oldtimer with us !
Just in time for a long strange season!!!
Quoting 207. Tazmanian:

looks like this tornado out break has peak and is now widding down looks like the next tornado out break is on day 3 on the SPC outlook
Taz you have over 100,000 quote that unreal!!!
Quoting 228. gulfbreeze:

Taz you have over 100,000 quote that unreal!!!


pat has the most am only in 2nd place lol
This thing might be a tropical storm if the ridge weakens it will hit Georgia south Carolina if it doesn't weaken it will go through florida into the eastern gulf!
.
This day will likely top out with roughly 35 tornadoes after reviews are done. Near max cape with conducive low level winds, when it all aligns = almost 70 thousand foot supercells. That Kansas complex was just sick. 35 would make this the second most active day of the season. Very low single day tornado numbers this year so far.
After Hurricane Alex in January...and the models showing a possible "Bonnie" moving into the southeastern US, and then also showing a possible "Colin" forming right behind afterwards, this could be the most active start to the Atlantic Hurricane season that I know of. Unbelievable!

Got the latest on the Atlantic tropics on a blog post I just finished...
Quoting 234. Gearsts:




The GFS does not develop anything really, but I think we will see at least a depression form somewhere from the Bahamas to cuba
Losing confidence in the developing disturbance north of the Greater Antilles ever developing. The upper-level setup on the GFS is less conducive than a few days ago, hence its steady trend toward a weaker low and now, an open trough. The eastern system is worth watching now that both the GFS and ECMWF indicate genesis.
Quoting 218. ncstorm:

When I'm in Firefox for WU I get a message about a script running and it freezes up my entire browser...

It becomes annoying so when I go to Chrome I dont have an option to post any comments..

WU need to fix these bugs..





For me in Firefox that usually happens when I've had the browser open for several days and it's consuming a lot of system memory. Stopping and restarting the browser fixes it.

I don't know anything about Chrome.
Can't post the cat gif but i'm like this new trend.
Quoting 237. riverat544:


For me in Firefox that usually happens when I've had the browser open for several days and it's consuming a lot of system memory. Stopping and restarting the browser fixes it.

I don't know anything about Chrome.


Happens to me on first instance of opening FF. I don't typically have any problems on Chrome, every once in a while though...
Quoting 238. Gearsts:

Can't post the cat gif but i'm like this new trend.



The models don't mean anything usually wrong , I think something will develop
GFS is up to its old games again--even when things develop, as soon as it gets NHC mention and some incipient weather system is starting to show up, the model seems to back off and ends up with feedback issues. This is why its not developing anything it is a proven fact that the GFS tends to do this.
I am not saying anything but the GFS is going crazy at the end of the run with a low forming in the gulf and it looks well developed, But is a wishcast because that's over 300 hours out
What's left of a home east of Ensign, Kansas. This was hit by the very first tornado.

NHC now showing a yellow "blob". "special tropical disturbance outlook.
Looking like we might get bonnie we will see
Quoting 245. James1981cane:

Looking like we might get bonnie we will see


Too bad there is no clyde anymore...
97 predictions for this hurricane season now. These are the most recent:

16-8-4 Plantmoretrees
14-7-3 windshear1993
14-8-4 Tornado6042008x
18-7-3 Pensacolanative

Thanks guys
Link
My Hurricane Week begins with a little introduction. Enjoy.
Quoting 248. HurricaneAndre:

Link
My Hurricane Week beg
Quoting 246. Dakster:



Too bad there is no clyde anymore...

lol true I think something might develop in the gulf in the 288 hour to 372 range take a look at The GFS
Good morning. Amazing stuff in Kansas yesterday!





Damage and injuries reported after tornadoes touch down in Kansas
By Breanna Lyda Published: May 25, 2016, 3:40 am
Gut weather in cows:
Cattle drugs could fuel climate change, study suggests
By Roger Harrabin BBC environment analyst, 6 hours ago

"Baby's got blue eyes": some good news :-)
First-ever photos of long-lost blue-eyed bird from Brazil
24th May 2016 / Mongabay.com
Thought-to-be-extinct blue-eyed bird rediscovered after 75 years.


The Critically Endangered Blue-eyed Ground-dove, Foto: Rafael Bessa
Morning all.....

Well, well, well..... what's this I see here where I see it????



[Smiling]
Going rowing before the storms, lakes in Michigan are like glass right now.Link
Quoting 204. PedleyCA:


Maybe the start of the EPAC season on this low....
Was thinking about that .... that part of the monsoonal gyre down there often gives added oomph to passing Twaves which spin up on crossing the isthmus.... less frequently it contributes to a storm on the ATL side.
Euro recurves it just off the coast. Pack your bags and go home, everyone; that trough has been enhanced over the last several years. Government just don't want us to know, but they the ones doing this. My distant cousin said so.

Quoting 255. KoritheMan:

Euro recurves it just off the coast. Pack your bags and go home, everyone; that trough has been enhanced over the last several years. Government just don't want us to know, but they the ones doing this. My distant cousin said so.
The Euro isn't very accurate it will develop just wait
Quoting 256. James1981cane:


The Euro isn't very accurate it will develop just wait



The Euro is very accurate, actually. Keep watching models.

I'm obviously kidding, btw. I'm just echoing something people on this site truly believe for whatever retarded reason that is. I hear it every hurricane season. You will too before long.

I thought the government thing would give it away. :P
Quoting 257. KoritheMan:



The Euro is very accurate, actually. Keep watching models.

I'm obviously kidding, btw. I'm just echoing something people on this site truly believe for whatever retarded reason that is. I hear it every hurricane season. You will too before long.

I thought the government thing would give it away. :P


Oh sorry about that I know the Euro use to be the king but I hear its not anymore and lots of people on here have stupid theories
Quoting 258. James1981cane:



Oh sorry about that I know the Euro use to be the king but I hear its not anymore and lots of people on here have stupid theories


Whoever told you the Euro is inferior is wrong. The GFS did get an upgrade, but I don't think it's actually functional yet (maybe wrong)?
Quoting 257. KoritheMan:



The Euro is very accurate, actually. Keep watching models.

I'm obviously kidding, btw. I'm just echoing something people on this site truly believe for whatever retarded reason that is. I hear it every hurricane season. You will too before long.

I thought the government thing would give it away. :P
You got a chuckle out of me... :-)
Still a lot of options for where something spins up. Looking at that storm complex south of JA, I think whatever we get will be a gullywasher .....
Quoting 260. BahaHurican:

You got a chuckle out of me... :-)
Still a lot of options for where something spins up. Looking at that storm complex south of JA, I think whatever we get will be a gullywasher .....

Looks like it will form moe near the south east bahamas
263. MahFL
Quoting 259. KoritheMan:



Whoever told you the Euro is inferior is wrong. The GFS did get an upgrade, but I don't think it's actually functional yet (maybe wrong)?


GFS was upgraded May 11, 2016.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/
Good mornin America, how are ya?

Quoting 264. JrWeathermanFL:

Good mornin America, how are ya?




good waiting for this thing to be a invest!!!
Quoting 265. James1981cane:



good waiting for this thing to be a invest!!!


That area south of Jamaica looks like a decent weather event.
Quoting 264. JrWeathermanFL:

Good mornin America, how are ya?




That area south of Jamaica looks decent.
268. MahFL
More doom !

Quoting 268. MahFL:

More doom !



Yea its been showing this for the last two runs Their proubably will be something but we don't know if it will form on the pacific side or the gulf side its hard to determine right now but 2 runs is consistant enough for me so expect something
Quoting 259. KoritheMan:



Whoever told you the Euro is inferior is wrong. The GFS did get an upgrade, but I don't think it's actually functional yet (maybe wrong)?


Think that the GFS upgrade happened two weeks ago (around May 11). Should be working now.
Good Morning. Maybe just me but the ULL off the NE Coast, now offshore from Mass, has pretty much cleared out everything along the Eastern Seaboard all the way down to the Bahamas; not much there at the moment to develop:

Quoting 264. JrWeathermanFL:

Good mornin America, how are ya?




Don't you know, I'm your native son?
Here is the Conus forcast for today and the current look; while at a slight risk and marginal risk for Texas at the moment, we have to see how they do with straight-line winds later today as the jet has now fully entered Texas and continues to push to their E-NE:



NHC going crazy with 50%

1. An area of cloudiness and showers over the western Atlantic Ocean
northeast of the Bahamas is associated with the interaction of an
upper-level trough and a weakening front. While development is not
anticipated for the next couple of days, environmental conditions
are expected to become more conducive for tropical or subtropical
development on Friday. This area of disturbed weather is forecast to
move slowly west-northwestward or northwestward and gradually
approach the southeastern United States over the weekend. The next
Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by 8 PM EDT tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

And finally the current shear levels for the Atlantic and the Florida region: shear has dropped way down to 10 knots just to the North of the Bahamas (much to my surprise when it was around 40 knots there two days ago) but nothing currently there to take advantage of those conditions:





NHC Up to 50% IN 5 DAYS
Quoting 271. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning. Maybe just me but the ULL off the NE Coast, now offshore from Mass, has pretty much cleared out everything along the Eastern Seaboard all the way down to the Bahamas; not much there at the moment to develop:




50/50 shot at the moment

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
815 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of cloudiness and showers over the western Atlantic Ocean
northeast of the Bahamas is associated with the interaction of an
upper-level trough and a weakening front. While development is not
anticipated for the next couple of days, environmental conditions
are expected to become more conducive for tropical or subtropical
development on Friday. This area of disturbed weather is forecast to
move slowly west-northwestward or northwestward and gradually
approach the southeastern United States over the weekend. The next
Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by 8 PM EDT tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Forecaster Blake
Quoting 276. WeatherkidJoe2323:

NHC Up to 50% IN 5 DAYS


Yea which I think is to high
Quoting 247. MaxWeather:

97 predictions for this hurricane season now. These are the most recent:

16-8-4 Plantmoretrees
14-7-3 windshear1993
14-8-4 Tornado6042008x
18-7-3 Pensacolanative

Thanks guys


Throw me into the mix with

17-9-5
Pretty much an underwhelming statement from the NHC

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge covers the far west Atlantic anchored by a 1023
mb high near 32N76W and extending a ridge axis across northeast
Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. A highly amplified upper trough
extends over the far eastern CONUS, just east of the Florida
peninsula then across Cuba into the western Caribbean covering
the western Atlantic west of 68W while an equally highly
amplified upper ridge extends from over South America across the
Lesser Antilles and into the west-central Atlantic to beyond
32N60W. This is creating a diffluent environment over a portion
of the west Atlantic to generate scattered showers/isolated
thunderstorms southwest of the Bahamas through the Straits of
Florida west of 71W. Isolated showers are possible between 64W-
72W. Beneath all of the activity above is a dissipating
stationary front that extends through 32N65W to 29N70W
continuing as a surface trough to 25N75W
. The remainder of the
Atlantic is dominated by a broad surface ridge anchored by a
1032 mb high near 35N46W. The west Atlantic surface trough will
retrograde slowly reaching near 75W this weekend. A low could
form along this trough over weekend.

Quoting 279. FLGatorCaneNut:



Throw me into the mix with

17-9-5

put me in I predict
20-11-3
People on the blog:Oh my nothing is going to form! We're losing confidence!

NHC:(Throws a wrench in) We see potential and a 50% chance in 5 days.

The NHC has made mistakes in the past (meteorology is not a perfect science) but I'd take their word in this situation over the ones here and besides they have access to more tools.Remember when everyone was screaming that it was over for Danny last year before he became a major hurricane?
Quoting 276. WeatherkidJoe2323:

NHC Up to 50% IN 5 DAYS


Surprised to see it that high. But what do I know...
I am never a fan of second-guessing NHC (they are the Pros and the best in the business) but will note that predicting cyclogenesis in advance of an actual low, which is essentially a function of model consensus, is more tough than track and intensity forecasting where you have an actual storm to work with. With that being said, the current outlook calls for the area now to the East of the Bahamas to slowly drift back W-NW towards the US; I don't see enough there at the moment to make the journey back but we have to see whether a low forms that will draw some of the moisture back in.

There is a little bit of surface vorticity east of the Bahamas at the moment; that may be one of the reasons NHC is at 50% in the long term assuming that the low will in fact develop and draw some moisture in: I just don't see much there to work with.





Quoting 269. James1981cane:


Yea its been showing this for the last two runs Their proubably will be something but we don't know if it will form on the pacific side or the gulf side its hard to determine right now but 2 runs is consistant enough for me so expect something
yes and we must remember, the GFS predicted this current coming storm..weeks ago..while none of the models did..maybe the upgrade the GFS got this month..was a good one.
Quoting 284. weathermanwannabe:

I am never a fan of second-guessing NHC (they are the Pros and the best in the business)...
That puts you in the minority here, then. This forum is fairly teeming with people who seem convinced that their ability to find a low on a 300-hour computer forecast map (hint: look for the big letter 'L') puts them on a par with the select few who've put in the many thousands of hours of dedicated and hardcore education, training, and experience it takes to make it as a professional tropical meteorologist.

Sigh...

In my years here, I've seen enough crow served to feed the Chinese army, and I've become convinced that where pinpoint forecasting is concerned, Abraham Lincoln said it best: "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt." ;-)
At this point, we all watch and wait and see what the numbers are when NHC updates this forecast at 8:00 pm this evening.
The next
Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by 8 PM EDT tonight.
Quoting 285. LargoFl:

yes and we must remember, the GFS predicted this current coming storm..weeks ago..while none of the models did..maybe the upgrade the GFS got this month..was a good one.


It seems a very well uprgrade seems really accurate weirdly in the longer range
Quoting 281. James1981cane:

put me in I predict
20-11-3


????
Quoting 283. Bucsboltsfan:



Surprised to see it that high. But what do I know...

I can see why they put that number in the 5 day. It is 50/50 at this point as a low really hasn't developed yet but the factors for the potential low will move into a somewhat favorable environment. I think NHC sees the shear will be lowering, the above average water temps East of Florida and convergence with the ridge to the north will give the disturbance a chance to grow into something.
Quoting 279. FLGatorCaneNut:



Throw me into the mix with

17-9-5


OK. 20-4-2 Got those numbers from a random number generator, not in that order though. Should be as good a guess as most others.
Quoting 286. Neapolitan:

That puts you in the minority here, then. This forum is fairly teeming with people who seem convinced that their ability to find a low on a 300-hour computer forecast map (hint: look for the big letter 'L') puts them on a par with the select few who've put in the many thousands of hours of dedicated and hardcore education, training, and experience it takes to make it as a professional tropical meteorologist.

Sigh...

In my years here, I've seen enough crow served to feed the Chinese army, and I've become convinced that where pinpoint forecasting is concerned, Abraham Lincoln said it best: "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt." ;-)

We are all amateur weather enthusiasts on here and it is fun to interact and speculate but I have always said over the years that no one on here is going to get a Nobel Prize for weather forecasting. Actually, my vote for the Nobel in the future is for Dr. Jennifer Francis from Rutgers for her research on jet stream variation, and Arctic amplification patterns, in a warming climate. While her theory is relatively new, with one or two papers out refuting her conclusions, her theory is verifying at many levels and many in the scientific-weather world are coming around in favor of her analysis.
Quoting 289. aquak9:



????


watch its going to be 20-11-3

Quoting 193. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

sunset falls


Wow. Are all those "pock marks" tornadoes? They look like little empty centers of circulation.


Quoting 281. James1981cane:


put me in I predict
20-11-3

25-14-8.
Quoting 294. GreyJewel:


Wow. Are all those "pock marks" tornadoes? They look like little empty centers of circulation.


Those are overshooting tops, where strong updrafts and cause clouds to push into the stratosphere and cast shadows which are your pock marks. They don't really have any direct connection to circulation
Quoting 293. James1981cane:


watch its going to be 20-11-3
Goodness, that's quite the doom-n-gloom.
Possibly the first tropical system in the season. Could this mean a busy hurricane season?
may be the NHC nos more then we do that all ways happens all so may be they have better tools then we do
Quoting 298. hotroddan:

Possibly the first tropical system in the season. Could this mean a busy hurricane season?



we all ready had are 1st named storm this would be are 2nd
Quoting 298. hotroddan:

Possibly the first tropical system in the season. Could this mean a busy hurricane season?
We had hurricane Alex back in January.
Quoting 294. GreyJewel:


Wow. Are all those "pock marks" tornadoes? They look like little empty centers of circulation.



The pock marks are the overshooting cloud tops, that is where you will find the largest hail, not the tornadoes.
So happy the Caribbean Sea is getting rain 😞
84-34-11 for my predictions lol
Quoting 286. Neapolitan:

That puts you in the minority here, then. This forum is fairly teeming with people who seem convinced that their ability to find a low on a 300-hour computer forecast map (hint: look for the big letter 'L') puts them on a par with the select few who've put in the many thousands of hours of dedicated and hardcore education, training, and experience it takes to make it as a professional tropical meteorologist.

Sigh...

In my years here, I've seen enough crow served to feed the Chinese army, and I've become convinced that where pinpoint forecasting is concerned, Abraham Lincoln said it best: "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt." ;-)


I am reminded of the quote (don't know from which 18'th century scientist]

"There is no surer way for a man of science to destroy his reputation among his
peers
than TO ATTEMPT TO FORECAST THE WEATHER"
Im telling you right now if a nice looking tropical wave gets into the Caribbean in August-October, watch out, because those waters haven't been tapped into for what seems like forever.
Too much shear
Quoting 306. Camerooski:

Im telling you right now if a nice looking tropical wave gets into the Caribbean in August-October, watch out, because those waters haven't been tapped into for what seems like forever.
Quoting 247. MaxWeather:

97 predictions for this hurricane season now. These are the most recent:

16-8-4 Plantmoretrees
14-7-3 windshear1993
14-8-4 Tornado6042008x
18-7-3 Pensacolanative

Thanks guys


Throw me in with 18-9-5, thanks!
.
This is why I didn't declare a blob yesterday. An Invest does not necessarily have to have much to it.

Quoting 286. Neapolitan:

That puts you in the minority here, then. This forum is fairly teeming with people who seem convinced that their ability to find a low on a 300-hour computer forecast map (hint: look for the big letter 'L') puts them on a par with the select few who've put in the many thousands of hours of dedicated and hardcore education, training, and experience it takes to make it as a professional tropical meteorologist.

Sigh...

In my years here, I've seen enough crow served to feed the Chinese army, and I've become convinced that where pinpoint forecasting is concerned, Abraham Lincoln said it best: "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt." ;-)


And what we've learned from history........is that America doesn't learn from history. ;)
Active season compared to the last few years ahead, lots of homegrown threats are a possibility.... MDR will not be completely dead, may be like last year except storms have way more of a chance. Water has not cooled down in the MDR as much as they were predicting.

17/9/6

EDIT: If you could put me on the list, Max. :]
Thanks
Quoting 310. Grothar:



This potential Bonnie is heading straight for Savannah Ga where i live.
Quoting 311. Grothar:

This is why I didn't declare a blob yesterday. An Invest does not necessarily have to have much to it.




Any sense of a blob seems to have moved South, time will tell with this one but you were correct, no blob warnings as of yet!
Quoting 312. RitaEvac:



And what we've learned from history........is that America doesn't learn from history. ;)


That's pretty much true world over.
Quoting 292. weathermanwannabe:


We are all amateur weather enthusiasts on here and it is fun to interact and speculate but I have always said over the years that no one on here is going to get a Nobel Prize for weather forecasting. Actually, my vote for the Nobel in the future is for Dr. Jennifer Francis from Rutgers for her research on jet stream variation, and Arctic amplification patterns, in a warming climate. While her theory is relatively new, with one or two papers out refuting her conclusions, her theory is verifying at many levels and many in the scientific-weather world are coming around in favor of her analysis.

Yes, her hypothesis seems really plausible. I'm not in a position to judge who deserves a Nobel Prize, but I too would say she deserves it. Besides, it would be nice to have a meteorologist or a climatologist awarded the prize, for a change...

(Edit : Besides, blocking patterns are something general circulation models are really struggling with, for both short-term weather forecasting and long-term climate modelling. More research is needed in this area.)

- Youtube search = Jennifer Francis
AAAIIIEEEE!!!

IT'S le'ORANGE!!!

le WILD ORANGE!!1
Quoting 304. Camerooski:

84-34-11 for my predictions lol



whats be real here please the NHC would be needing new names too come up with if we had that many storms
Max my prediction is 16-7-4
Quoting 247. MaxWeather:

97 predictions for this hurricane season now. These are the most recent:

16-8-4 Plantmoretrees
14-7-3 windshear1993
14-8-4 Tornado6042008x
18-7-3 Pensacolanative

Thanks guys
Greetings Max...Put me down for 15/9/5 if you will.
In other news....there seems to be some extra curricular activities in some high schools in Florida........

It was a sweltering humid 80 for a low this morning
Quoting 311. Grothar:

This is why I didn't declare a blob yesterday. An Invest does not necessarily have to have much to it.




Much to the frustration/disappointment of my little one! She definitely falls into the wishcaster clade!
325. ackee
So the Nhc drop a boomshell upgrade formation to 50% over next 5 days both the Euro and cmc show some development poll time what will become of disturbance weather over the Bahamas ?

A strong low
B TD
C T'S
D sub tropical system
E no development
Quoting 311. Grothar:

This is why I didn't declare a blob yesterday. An Invest does not necessarily have to have much to it.




Good morning.

One of the important things to look for is persistence. Thunderstorms can blow up something fierce and be gone 12 hours later. The NHC is basing its position not on what we see now but on what may unfold downstream depending on how various weather features play out.
Quoting 247. MaxWeather:

97 predictions for this hurricane season now. These are the most recent:

16-8-4 Plantmoretrees
14-7-3 windshear1993
14-8-4 Tornado6042008x
18-7-3 Pensacolanative

Thanks guys


Add me, 18-8-6
Quoting 325. ackee:

So the Nhc drop a boomshell upgrade formation to 50% over next 5 days both the Euro and cmc show some development poll time what will become of disturbance weather over the Bahamas ?

A strong low
B TD
C T'S
D sub tropical system
E no development

Either B, Or D
Quoting 326. kmanislander:



Good morning.

One of the important things to look for is persistence. Thunderstorms can blow up something fierce and be gone 12 hours later. The NHC is basing its position not on what we see now but on what may unfold downstream depending on how various weather features play out.


If I were to travel to cayman island, what is the best place to stay and visit on that island?
Quoting 329. RitaEvac:



If I were to travel to cayman island, what is the best place to stay and visit on that island?


Depends on your budget :-)

WU mail me and I can give some guidance.
Quoting 306. Camerooski:

Im telling you right now if a nice looking tropical wave gets into the Caribbean in August-October, watch out, because those waters haven't been tapped into for what seems like forever.
GOM waters are not stagnant.. Lots of currents going on under the surface.. here's the latest SST anomoly map for reference:

Thanks, y'all, for the explanation about the overshooting cloud tops' shadows vs. my naïve guess at tornado "eyes."

Looks like there must have been mountains of hail underneath that mess!
Quoting 325. ackee:

So the Nhc drop a boomshell upgrade formation to 50% over next 5 days both the Euro and cmc show some development poll time what will become of disturbance weather over the Bahamas ?

A strong low
B TD
C T'S
D sub tropical system
E no development
A
Quoting 326. kmanislander:



Good morning.

One of the important things to look for is persistence. Thunderstorms can blow up something fierce and be gone 12 hours later. The NHC is basing its position not on what we see now but on what may unfold downstream depending on how various weather features play out.


Hey, stranger. Nice to see you back.
Invest 90W roaming the South China Sea (Wikipedia, 2016-05-25) :

Invest 90W Rings in 2016 as the first sign of activity in the Tropics - WestPacWx.com
- Despite it being labeled an "invest" by the US Military which is their way of basically saying we need to watch these clouds more closely there has been no other Meteorological agencies to put a label on this area outside of referring to it as a "passing trough".
- There is no expectations that this storm becomes a named system as it slowly meanders to the north in to China through Thursday.
- Regardless tropical disturbances like this bring the threat of heavy rainfall and the chance of flooding. Especially in flood prone areas including river valleys and locations with poor drainage. This would include urban areas like Manila. Even further south in to Cebu there has been evacuations in place due to the persistent heavy rainfall causing urban flooding in the city.

There's a possibility several neighboring countries, like China, Vietnam and Thailand get some flash flooding from this. Regarding a possible tropical cyclone genesis... The good thing is PAGASA declared yesterday that the monsoon has arrived in the Phillipines Archipelago and that it will probably help alleviate the drought ongoing in some of the country's regions.
Must every weather condition be hyped and monitored closely even before it develops and poses any threat or impact? I am 70 years old, sort of a weather buff and tire of the hype of the Weather Channel, and especially ABC news. It seems if a cloud forms in the tropics it's news. Hype results in people not being vigilant when a true weather hazard exists. Growing up near New Orleans I was used to the mature, serious, and down to earth weather reporting of a local legend, Nash Roberts. He is deceased, but in his prime he was "The Man" when it came to hurricanes and weather. He never hyped, and when he said beware you know to be on your toes. Now every weather condition whether it be storms, heat, cold, snow, rain, fog, wind, is hyped to the nth degree. It is time for some restraint but it will not happen as everything is show business now.
Quoting 331. JNFlori30A:

GOM waters are not stagnant.. Lots of currents going on under the surface.. here's the latest SST anomoly map for reference:




That's a nice graphic display of how the equatorial waters in the eastern Pacific are rapidly cooling down. Many meteorologists are now thinking that the La Nina will be taking over as early as July. No wonder the numbers for Atlantic storms are 'rising'.
Quoting 334. Grothar:



Hey, stranger. Nice to see you back.


Thanks. That time of year again !
Quoting 329. RitaEvac:



If I were to travel to cayman island, what is the best place to stay and visit on that island?
We enjoyed our two trips over back in the 90's.. Staying on 7 mile beach was nice since we spent most mornings on the beach and then went sightseeing after lunch. The other time we went we did a low budget place in Hell.. That was... interesting.. but cheap. We did enjoyed the Botanical Gardens, Turtle Farm, Stingray city (the coolest), spent a day at lazy day Rum Point and shopped for souvenirs with a billion cruise ship pax in George town. I unfortunately still struggle with my addiction to these:

I never poll on a Wednesday'


It is known..

12Z NAM keeps the system very week at 84 hours. Also brings the low close to Florida but then turns it more towards the S.E. U.S.
343. bwi
Quoting 292. weathermanwannabe:


We are all amateur weather enthusiasts on here and it is fun to interact and speculate but I have always said over the years that no one on here is going to get a Nobel Prize for weather forecasting. Actually, my vote for the Nobel in the future is for Dr. Jennifer Francis from Rutgers for her research on jet stream variation, and Arctic amplification patterns, in a warming climate. While her theory is relatively new, with one or two papers out refuting her conclusions, her theory is verifying at many levels and many in the scientific-weather world are coming around in favor of her analysis.


Agree. I also think the teams that are frantically studying the retreat of ice shelf grounding lines in Antarctica, along with Francis, are doing some of the most important science on the planet right now.
ohhh...ohhh....ohhhh......i forgot the hurricane contest......let me make my usual predictions.....0 - 0 - 0.....oh...we already had one....damn...i lose again
GFS 6z has a 1002 mb TS move ENE towards FL taking a Wilma like track. Interesting. "No wish casting here"
AL, 91, 2016052512, 01, CARQ, 0, 250N, 680W, 20, 1018, DB,


SHIPS
Quoting 345. Camerooski:

GFS 6z has a 1002 mb TS move ENE towards FL taking a Wilma like track. Interesting. "No wish casting here"


this could be a bad year for the gulf and FL


i wounder if the GFS and other model runs are showing any thing else after this event
Quoting 346. nrtiwlnvragn:

AL, 91, 2016052512, 01, CARQ, -24, 226N, 692W, 15, 0, DB,


YAY we now have 91L
AL, 91, 2016052512, , BEST, 0, 250N, 680W, 20, 1018, DB
Completely new to this type of projection, but my estimation for the coming season is: 18-9-4 walkshills

A story about luck. In the late 1920s a tropical system came ashore and wound up sitting over my town here in central Texas, dropping over 23 inches of rain in about a 12 hour period. The resulting flood swept away a lot of livestock, but one pig penned up on a creek a mile from the Colorado was carried downstream and then rode the storm surge all the way down to the Pedernales, some 40 winding miles over rocks and debris. There were no dams, so no impediments aside from the normal hazards.

The pig came oinking out of the flood. Someone recognized the brand and called the owner to retrieve him to live happily every after, well, as much as a pig may in those hungry times.

This is my take on forecasting...we applaud the dauntless, flood-worthy pig but ignore all those who didn't make it ashore in time. May the oink be with you...you're better than the blob-less masses standing in the rain.
Today's (May 25 2016) SPC Outlook 1300Z...


...And May 25 2011 SPC Outlook 1300Z


Big difference. Anyone got May 25 2011 stories?
Here is the AOI in the West Pac; not much time to get it's act together but a sign of the times as the tropics start to get active at the start of NH Summer:

Combined image of all basins

Quoting 354. nrtiwlnvragn:

91L Long Floater - Visible Imagery Loop


Little bit of spin......


Nice catch; consistent with the broad low level vort in that area noted earlier:

This one forming faster than anticipated watch out it looks like it means business lol!!!
Someone seal the wu hatch as we're gonna get some "Heavy" Posts real soon seems.
Invest 91L
As of 12:00 UTC May 25, 2016:

Location: 25.0°N 68.0°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1018 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1019 mb
Radius of Circulation: 105 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 100 NM

That low has a long way to go. It's starting out really high.
Quoting 312. RitaEvac:



And what we've learned from history........is that America doesn't learn from history. ;)


History rarely repeats exactly but it often rhymes. (unknown author)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 360. Grothar:




Wait. It doesn't show a cat 5 ripping thru Dade... I used to like to see that far off in the future as I know that would be the last thing that would happen.
Wind shear is decreasing in the vicinity of 91L. I'm in align with the NHC development chances.
At the end of the loop, you can see a broad low level spin. Looks to be trying to organize it's circulation. Doesn't look like it can do much in the way of convective organization, for right now due to shear. However, favorable shear will be waiting to the northwest.
align?

Really? What is dat?
Quoting 306. Camerooski:

Im telling you right now if a nice looking tropical wave gets into the Caribbean in August-October, watch out, because those waters haven't been tapped into for what seems like forever.


Most of the heat from tropical and subtropical oceans is transported away by the atmospheric general circulation and ocean currents. Only a small fraction is tapped by Tropical Cyclones and a paucity of them does not result in a larger excessive buildup of energy until one finally occurs.
370. vis0

Quoting 304. Camerooski:

84-34-11 for my predictions lol
metrics?
Finally sunny and pleasant, typical early summer weather here in the Mid Atlantic. I'll try not to blink or it will pass.
Quoting 367. tiggerhurricanes2001:

At the end of the loop, you can see a broad low level spin. Looks to be trying to organize it's circulation. Doesn't look like it can do much in the way of convective organization, for right now due to shear. However, favorable shear will be waiting to the northwest.

This could be a tropical storm or depression within 24 hours the way its looking
Quoting 361. Patrap:

Someone seal the wu hatch as we're gonna get some "Heavy" Posts real soon seems.



here's number one........

374. MahFL
Quoting 290. WeatherkidJoe2323:


I can see why they put that number in the 5 day. It is 50/50 at this point as a low really hasn't developed yet but the factors for the potential low will move into a somewhat favorable environment. I think NHC sees the shear will be lowering, the above average water temps East of Florida and convergence with the ridge to the north will give the disturbance a chance to grow into something.


Shear has dropped massively in the Bahamas:


375. vis0
Then that thing at 40w7n, nothing (though lots of moisture under it) but has a more healthier step by step build up (ir - vis- ~wv~ match up, aka stacking ) than recent years where even 2016Joaquin looked messy then shazam! (vis0 reaching over for new bag of popcorn and an empty brown paper bag...inhale...exhale as blog caraaaaa........) oh lookie a new blogbyte...
Next NHC Update expect a 60/40 just watch
Quoting 317. 999Ai2016:


Yes, her hypothesis seems really plausible. I'm not in a position to judge who deserves a Nobel Prize, but I too would say she deserves it. Besides, it would be nice to have a meteorologist or a climatologist awarded the prize, for a change...

(Edit : Besides, blocking patterns are something general circulation models are really struggling with, for both short-term weather forecasting and long-term climate modelling. More research is needed in this area.)

- Youtube search = Jennifer Francis


Thank you for the links to Jennifer Francis. She does an excellent job of explaining blockin patterns in very simple terms.
Quoting 376. James1981cane:

Next NHC Update expect a 60/40 just watch


Watch the 12Z Euro when it comes out and that will give you an excellent clue as to which direction the NHC will go.
Quoting 372. James1981cane:


This could be a tropical storm or depression within 24 hours the way its looking


No, I think it's going to need a few days. But hey, anything is possible.
Quoting 378. Sfloridacat5:



Watch the 12Z Euro and that will give you an excellent clue as to what direction the NHC will go.


yea I predict the euro will go further south like the GFS and stronger
60 hours, 33 knots, 40 mph winds at 10m (close to the surface). Rather optimistic but we'll see.