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April 2016: Earth's 12th Consecutive Warmest Month on Record

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 9:42 PM GMT on May 18, 2016

Keeping a year-long string of record-warm months going, April 2016 was by far the planet's warmest April since record keeping began in 1880, said NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) on Wednesday. In the NOAA database, April 2016 came in a full 1.10°C (1.98°F) warmer than the 20th-century average for April of 13.7°C (56.7°F), as well as 0.28°C (0.50°F) above the previous record for April, set in 2010. This is a huge margin for breaking a monthly global temperature record, as they are typically broken by just a few hundredths of a degree. The only months with larger warm departures from average were March and February 2016 and December 2015. NASA also reported the warmest April in its database (1.11°C above the 1951-1980 average), and the margin it broke the previous record by--0.24°C--was the largest margin ever recorded to break the April record by. The seven warmest months in NASA's database, relative to average, have been the past seven months (with data going back to 1880); these are the only months in the database with readings of at least 1.0°C above average.

April 2016 marked the twelfth consecutive month that the monthly temperature record was broken and the seventeenth consecutive month (since December 2014) that the monthly global temperature ranked among the three warmest for its respective month in the NOAA database. Both global ocean and global land temperatures were the warmest on record for any April. Global satellite-measured temperatures in April 2016 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 2nd warmest for any April in the 38-year record, and the fourth-largest warm departure from average for any month, according to the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH). This breaks a string of six consecutive months the UAH database had registered a record monthly high.

The impressive global warmth in recent months is due to the steady build-up of heat-trapping greenhouse gases due to human activities, plus a spike due to a large amount of heat being released from waters in the Eastern Pacific due to the powerful 2015-16 El Niño event. This event peaked in December, but the warmest atmospheric readings (relative to average) usually lag the peak oceanic temperatures by a few months. NOAA’s global surface temperature for the year so far (January-April 2016) is an astounding 0.30°C (0.54°F) warmer than the previous record, set in 2015 (see Figure 2).


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for April 2016, the warmest April for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Record warmth was observed over several land areas on Earth as well as most of the Indian Ocean, with especially warm readings over northern South America, northeast Africa, southeast Europe, southeast Asia, northern Australia, southern Greenland, and southern Alaska. Image credit: National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).


Figure 2. Departure from average for the global January-through-April temperature for the years 1880 - 2016. This year has seen by far the warmest temperatures on record for each of the four months. Image credit: NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).

Will 2016 set another record high?
It’s increasingly probable that 2016 will eclipse 2015 as the warmest year in global temperature records that go back to 1880. When major El Niño events straddle two calendar years, the second year is often the warmer one globally, as there is a lag of several months between the peak oceanic and atmospheric warming. Here’s one way to look at the question: how cool would the rest of 2016 need to be to prevent an annual record? Let’s assume that a good analog for this year is 1998, when a very strong El Niño waned quickly in northern spring and was succeeded by a moderately strong La Niña by year’s end. That year, the departure in average global temperature was 0.71°C for January through April, and it dropped to 0.59°C for May through December. If we were to experience a similar drop in global temperature later this year—which is possible if we transitioned to a moderate La Niña, as predicted by several models—then the departure from average for the last eight months of the year could be in the neighborhood of 1.02°C. In that case, 2016 will still cruise handily to the title of warmest year on record. The drop from Jan-Apr to May-Dec would need to be twice as large this year as it was in 1998 in order to put this year’s annual average below that of 2015. Small wonder, then, that NASA/GISS director Gavin Schmidt has laid 99% odds on this year becoming the warmest in global records.


Figure 3. Global temperature in the year 2016 has left all recent years in the dust for the period January through April. Image credit: Climate Central.

El Niño on its way out
El Niño conditions weakened to the "moderate" classification during April 2016, and El Niño continues to weaken rapidly. The event peaked in strength in late November 2015, when the weekly sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the so-called Niño3.4 region (5°S - 5°N, 120°W - 170°W) peaked at a record 3.1°C above normal. By the week of May 16, 2016, the Niño3.4 SST anomaly had fallen to 0.6°C above average--barely above the 0.5°C threshold to be considered an El Niño. NOAA expects a transition to neutral conditions during early summer 2016, with a 65% chance of a transition to La Niña conditions by the August-September-October peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Arctic sea ice at its lowest April extent on record—and still plummeting
A key U.S. satellite sensor used to monitor sea ice extent failed in early April, and the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) was unable to provide an estimate of the April sea ice extent in the Arctic. However, satellite data from the Danish Meteorological Institute, using a different instrument, showed that last month’s sea ice extent in the Arctic was the lowest for April across the 38-year satellite record. The unprecedented mid-spring melt is barreling ahead this month. Provisional data for early May from a replacement sensor now being calibrated by NSIDC closely resembles the data shown below in Figure 4, as well as analyses from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). “We are at a record low for this time of year,” confirmed Mark Serreze (NSIDC) in an email. We will have much more on this spring’s Arctic ice loss in an upcoming post.


Figure 4. Arctic sea ice extent through May 16, 2016. Arctic sea ice has been at record low levels from early April through mid-May 2016. Image Credit: Danish Meteorological Institute.

Three billion-dollar weather disasters in April 2016
According to the April 2016 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield, three billion-dollar weather-related disasters hit the planet in April--two severe weather outbreaks in the U.S., and a flood disaster in South America. In addition, two other disasters from earlier in the year (Tropical Cyclone Winston in Fiji and a March 22-25 severe weather outbreak in the U.S.) accumulated enough damage claims to be rated billion-dollar disasters by the end of April. Between January - April 2016, there were twelve billion-dollar weather disasters. This is well ahead of pace of nine such disasters in January - April 2013--the year that ended up with the most billion-dollar weather disasters on record: 41. Last year had only five billion-dollar weather disasters through April. Here is the tally of billion-dollar weather disasters for January - April 2016:

1) Drought, Vietnam, 1/1 - 5/1, $6.7 billion, 0 killed
2) Severe Weather, Plains-Southeast U.S., 4/10 - 4/13, $2.75 billion, 1 killed
3) Winter Weather, Eastern U.S., 1/21 - 1/24, $2.0 billion, 58 killed
4) Winter Weather, East Asia, 1/20 - 1/26, $2.0 billion, 116 killed
5) Severe Weather, Rockies-Plains-Southeast-Midwest U.S., 3/22 - 3/25, $1.75 billion, 0 killed
6) Drought, Zimbabwe, 1/1 - 3/1, $1.6 billion, 0 killed
7) Flooding, Argentina and Uruguay, 4/4 - 4/10, $1.3 billion, 0 killed
8) Severe Weather, Plains-Midwest-Southeast-Northeast U.S., 3/4 - 3/12, $1.25 billion, 6 killed
9) Severe Weather, Plains-Midwest-Southeast-Northeast U.S., 2/22 - 2/25, $1.2 billion, 10 killed
10) Severe Weather, Plains-Rockies U.S., 4/15 - 4/19, $1.0 billion, 9 killed
11) Severe Weather, U.S., 3/17 - 3/18, $1.0 billion, 0 killed
12) Tropical Cyclone Winston, Fiji, 2/16 - 2/22, $1.0 billion, 44 killed

And here are the three disasters from April 2016:


Disaster 1. Heavy rains caused extensive flash flooding across parts of Texas on April 18, killing eight and leading to more than 1,800 water rescues in the greater Houston metropolitan area. The same storm also brought heavy snow and severe thunderstorms from April 15 - 19 to parts of the Rockies and Plains, killing one person. Damage was estimated at $1.0 billion. In this image, we see Kaicee Crowley walking through floodwaters to get belongings out of her stranded car at the North Main Street exit off I-45 in Houston on April 18, 2016, as White Oak Bayou came over its banks and floods the freeway. Image credit: Karen Warren/Houston Chronicle via AP.


Disaster 2. Severe thunderstorms caused catastrophic hail damage across parts of the Plains and Southeast from April 10 - 13, killing at least one person and injuring dozens more. The Dallas-Fort Worth and San Antonio metro regions in Texas were the hardest hit, where softball- and baseball-sized hail fell. Damage was estimated at $2.75 billion. In this photo, we see an impressive shelf cloud from a thunderstorm over Royce City, Texas, on April 11, 2016. Image credit: wunderphotographer Gweduc.


Disaster 3. Torrential rains led to severe flooding across portions of Argentina and Uruguay from April 4 - 10. No serious injuries or fatalities were reported. Hardest hit was northeast Argentina, where seven-day rainfall totals tallied as much as 750 millimeters (29.53 inches] in parts of the provincial regions of Entre Rios, Corrientes, Santa Fe, Chaco, Formosa, and Santiago del Estero. More than 15,000 people were affected, with most of the damage occurring along the overflowing Paraná and Salado rivers. Substantial damage occurred to 4 percent of the country’s soybean crop. Total economic losses to agriculture in Argentina alone were estimated at $1.3 billion. In this image, we see flooding in Villa Paranacito, Entre Rios, Argentina, on April 28, 2016. (AP Photo/Natacha Pisarenko)

Notable global heat and cold marks set for April 2016
Hottest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: 48.5°C (119.3°F) at Titlagarh, India, 24 April
Coldest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: -46.2°C (-51.2°F) at Geo Summit, Greenland, 7 April
Hottest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: 43.2°C (109.8°F) at Onslow Airport, Australia, 2 April
Coldest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: -79.1°C (-110.4°F) at Concordia, Antarctica, 24 April
(Courtesy of Maximiliano Herrera.)

Major weather stations that set (not tied) new all-time heat or cold records in April 2016
Record heat waves in Southeast Asia and Africa caused a remarkable five nations to set all-time heat records in April 2016 (see below). The excessive heat gives us an uncommonly long list of all-time local heat records in more than a dozen nations to report:

Keningau (Malaysia) max. 37.3°C, 7 April
Batu Embun (Malaysia) max. 38.6°C, 9 April; followed by 39.2°C on 10 April
Bua Chum (Thailand) max. 43.2°C, 10 April
Surin (Thailand) max. 42.2°C, 10 April; followed by 42.8°C on 11 April; followed by 42.9°C on 12 April; followed by 43.1°C on 17 April
Chok Chai (Thailand) max. 41.3°C, 10 April; followed by 42.5°C on 11 April
Tak Fa (Thailand) max. 41.6°C, 10 April; followed by 41.7°C on 22 April
Nang Rong (Thailand) max. 41.9°C, 10 April; followed by 42.8°C on 11 April; followed by 43.0°C on 12 April
Banteay Ampil (Cambodia) max. 42.2°C, 11 April: New national record high for Cambodia
Saravanh (Laos) max. 41.2°C, 11 April; followed by 41.5°C on 16 April
Nakhon Ratchasima (Thailand) max. 43.2°C, 11 April
Tha Phra (Thailand) max. 42.7°C, 11 April
Kosumphisai (Thailand) max. 42.5°C, 11 April
Ubon Ratchathani (Thailand) max. 42.5°C, 11 April; followed by 42.6°C on 15 April
Roi Et (Thailand) max. 42.3°C, 11 April
Aranyaphrathet (Thailand) max. 42.2°C, 11 April
Nan (Thailand) max. 42.2°C, 11 April; followed by 42.4°C on 12 April; followed by 43.3°C on 14 April
Nong Phlub (Thailand) max. 42.0°C, 11 April
Chainat (Thailand) max. 41.8°C, 11 April
Surat Thani (Thailand) max. 41.3°C, 11 April
Kho Hong (Thailand) max. 39.9°C, 11 April
Hat Yai (Thailand) max. 39.3°C, 11 April; followed by 39.7°C on 28 April
Koh Samui (Thailand) max. 38.0°C, 11 April
Pattani (Thailand) max. 38.3°C, 12 April; followed by 38.5°C on 19 April; followed by 38.7°C on 21 April
Lom Sak (Thailand) max. 41.9°C, 12 April; followed by 42.0°C on 18 April
Sakon Nakhon (Thailand) max. 42.5°C, 12 April
Nakhon Sawan (Thailand) max. 43.2°C, 12 April; followed by 43.4°C on 19 April
Seno (Laos) max. 42.3°C, 12 April: New national record high for Laos
Long Island (India) max. 37.6°C, 12 April
Sagaing (Myanmar) max. 43.8°C, 12 April
Phonm Penh (Cambodia) max. 41.0°C, 13 April
Temerloh (Malaysia) max. 38.8°C, 13 April
Dori (Burkina Faso) max. 47.5°C, 13 April: New national record high for Burkina Faso
Dedougou (Burkina Faso) max. 45.2°C, 13 April
Boromo (Burkina Faso) max. 44.2°C, 13 April
Tillabery (Niger) max. 47.0°C, 13 April
Bougouni (Mali) max. 44.0°C, 13 April
Banjul (Gambia) max. 44.4°C, 14 April
Mersing (Malaysia) max. 37.4°C, 14 April
Malaybalay (Philippines) max. 36.4°C, 15 April
Kozhikode (India) max. 39.1°C, 15 April; followed by 39.2°C on 30 April
Preah Vihea (Cambodia) max. 42.6°C, 15 April: New national record high for Cambodia
Attapeu (Laos) max. 42.0°C, 15 April
Houei Sai (Laos) max. 40.8°C, 15 April; followed by 41.0°C on 28 April
General Santos (Philippines) max. 39.4°C, 16 April
Hanimaadhoo (Maldives) max. 34.9°C, 16 April: New national record high for the Maldives; followed by 35.0°C on 30 April
Walvis Bay Airport (Namibia) max. 42.8°C, 16 April
Danxian (China) max. 40.4°C, 17 April
Changjiang (China) max. 40.5°C, 17 April
Satun (Thailand) max. 39.6°C, 20 April
Kottayam (India) max. 39.9°C, 20 April
Car Nicobar (India) max. 35.4°C, 22 April
Bengaluru (India) max. 39.2°C, 24 April
Mysore (India) max. 39.9°C, 24 April
Palakkad (India) max. 41.9°C, 26 April
Phetchabun (Thailand) max. 43.3°C, 26 April
Bhumibol Dam (Thailand) max. 43.9°C, 27 April
Sayabouri (Laos) max. 40.8°C, 27 April
Cannur (India) max. 39.2°C, 27 April
Jaffna (Sri Lanka) max. 37.0°C, 27 April
Mae Hong Son (Thailand) max. 44.6°C, 28 April: New national record high for Thailand
Yalla (Thailand) max. 40.1°C, 28 April
Magwe (Myanmar) max. 46.5°C, 29 April
Yamethin (Myanmar) max. 45.0°C, 29 April
Thayawady (Myanmar) max. 43.9°C, 29 April
Loikaw (Myanmar) max. 39.5°C, 29 April

(Courtesy of Maximiliano Herrera.)

Five all-time national heat records set in April 2016
From January through May 16, 2016, a total of nine nations or territories tied or set all-time records for their hottest temperature in recorded history--which is a huge number of records for so early in the year. One all-time cold temperature record has been set so far in 2016 (in Hong Kong.) "All-time" record here refers to the warmest or coldest temperature ever reliably reported in a nation or territory. The period of record varies from country to country and station to station, but it is typically a few decades to a century or more. Most nations do not maintain official databases of extreme temperature records, so the national temperature records reported here are in many cases not official. Our data source is international weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, one of the world's top climatologists, who maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website. If you reproduce this list of extremes, please cite Maximiliano Herrera as the primary source of the weather records. Here are 2016's all-time heat and cold records as of May 16:

Maldives set its all-time hottest record on April 30, 2016, when the mercury hit 35.0°C (94.8°F) at Hanimaadhoo.

Thailand set its all-time hottest record on April 28, 2016, when the mercury hit 44.6°C (112.3°F) at Mae Hong Son.

Cambodia set its all-time hottest record on April 15, 2016, when the mercury hit 42.6°C (108.7°F) at Preah Vihea.

Burkina Faso set its all-time hottest record on April 13, 2016, when the mercury hit 47.5°C (117.5°F) at Dori.

Laos set its all-time hottest record on April 12, 2016, when the mercury hit 42.3°C (108.1°F) at Seno.

Vanuatu in the South Pacific set its all-time hottest record on February 8, 2016, when the mercury hit 36.2°C (97.2°F) at Lamap Malekula.

Tonga set its all-time hottest record on February 1, 2016, when the mercury hit 35.5°C (95.9°F) at Niuafoou.

Wallis and Futuna Territory (France) set a new territorial heat record with 35.8°C (96.4°F) on January 10, 2016 at Futuna Airport. This is the second year in a row that Wallis and Futuna has beaten its all-time heat mark; the previous record was a 35.5°C (95.9°F) reading on January 19, 2015 at the Futuna Airport.

Botswana set its all-time hottest record on January 7, 2016, when the mercury hit 43.8°C (110.8°F) at Maun.

Hong Kong Territory (China) set its all-time coldest mark on January 24, 2016, when the mercury dipped to -6.0°C (21.2°F) at Tai Mo Shan.

Heat records continue to tumble across India
Wednesday, May 18, brought the hottest reliably measured temperature on record for a populated location in India, as Phalodi soared to 50.5°C (122.9°F). The hottest temperature in India’s history as recognized by the India Meteorological Department is just 0.1°C warmer: 50.6°C (123.1°F) at Alwar, Rajasthan, on May 10, 1956. There was also a 50.6°C (123.1°F) measurement taken at Pachpadra (an uninhabited saline depression) on May 25, 1886. According to Herrera, the Pachpadra reading in 1886 is not that reliable, because the screen used on the instrument shelter was of questionable quality. He also believes that the official record at Alwar is junk—that record was set during what was not an exceptional heat wave, just a few months after the station was installed. Temperatures were constantly overestimated by 5 - 6°C during the first few years of operation of the station, after which it was probably fixed, since its temperatures fell in line with neighboring stations.
Update: On Thursday, May 19, Phalodi reached a high of 51.0°C (123.8°F]--a clear record for the highest temperature ever observed in India.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Welcome to the Anthropocene.

2016, the Year that AGW Forcing's awaken the Globe to our shared dilemma.





(From the previous blog)

Quoting 68. Abacosurf:
Quoting 55. 999Ai2016:

From Phys.org, May 18.

- Climate change, runaway development worsen Houston floods
... Consistent with other studies forecasting more intense and at the same time more localized heavy rainfall events in a warming world.
___________
Abacosurf :
From this... 2011 Texas drought was 20 times more likely due to warming, study says Link

Drought Cripples the South: Why the 'Creeping Disaster' Could Get a Whole Lot Worse Link
"Just as worrying, climate change is expected to further dry out much of the region, potentially multiplying the impacts of population growth and the usual dry spells. What the South is facing may be not just a drought but the first signs of a permanent dry, one to which we'll need to adapt."

Is it me or do they tend to play on the flavor of the day or week at times...
I know climate change is partly to blame for both but these types of articles are generally exploiting current events and have to be taken in that context.
The more we learn the more ignorant we become.

3 Counterintuitive Connections Between Climate Change and Extreme Weather
(World Ressources Institute)

"3) Climate change can contribute to a double whammy of drought and extreme precipitation in the same location.

As mentioned above, a warmer atmosphere can hold more water, fueling more intense rain and snow events. But at the other end of the spectrum, the warming climate can amplify conditions conducive to drought - like heatwaves, evapotranspiration and reduced soil moisture. The combination of these two extremes in one location can increase disasters like flooding and landslides, and recent history suggests parts of the United States may already be grappling with these double-whammy impacts.

Since 2010, regions like the Midwest have been impacted by numerous extreme drought and flooding events that have each exceeded $1 billion in losses. Right now, California is in the midst of a drought that researchers have found to be its worst in at least 1,200 years. And while not found to have been caused by climate change, scientists have determined the drought has been driven by record warm temperatures and reduced precipitation. These prolonged warm and dry conditions were then met with an incredible deluge of rainfall in some areas of the state last December (San Francisco received more rain in a matter of days than it did all of 2013) causing flooding and mudslides, washing out roads and damaging homes.


A growing body of evidence shows strong connections between climate change and extreme events, and impacts once thought of as a distant future threat are already occurring and widespread."
Quoting 2. 999Ai2016:

(From the previous blog)


3 Counterintuitive Connections Between Climate Change and Extreme Weather
(World Ressources Institute)

"3) Climate change can contribute to a double whammy of drought and extreme precipitation in the same location.

As mentioned above, a warmer atmosphere can hold more water, fueling more intense rain and snow events. But at the other end of the spectrum, the warming climate can amplify conditions conducive to drought - like heatwaves, evapotranspiration and reduced soil moisture. The combination of these two extremes in one location can increase disasters like flooding and landslides, and recent history suggests parts of the United States may already be grappling with these double-whammy impacts.

Since 2010, regions like the Midwest have been impacted by numerous extreme drought and flooding events that have each exceeded $1 billion in losses. Right now, California is in the midst of a drought that researchers have found to be its worst in at least 1,200 years. And while not found to have been caused by climate change, scientists have determined the drought has been driven by record warm temperatures and reduced precipitation. These prolonged warm and dry conditions were then met with an incredible deluge of rainfall in some areas of the state last December (San Francisco received more rain in a matter of days than it did all of 2013) causing flooding and mudslides, washing out roads and damaging homes.


A growing body of evidence shows strong connections between climate change and extreme events, and impacts once thought of as a distant future threat are already occurring and widespread."


Woops...didn't see the "double whammy effect" listed in any of those articles... that term wasn't in use back in 2012...
Thanks for forwarding to new blog! I'll put the rest so people do not misconstrue...

Quoting 55. 999Ai2016:

From Phys.org, May 18.

- Climate change, runaway development worsen Houston floods
... Consistent with other studies forecasting more intense and at the same time more localized heavy rainfall events in a warming world.

From this... 2011 Texas drought was 20 times more likely due to warming, study says Link



Drought Cripples the South: Why the 'Creeping Disaster' Could Get a Whole Lot Worse Link
"Just as worrying, climate change is expected to further dry out much of the region, potentially multiplying the impacts of population growth and the usual dry spells. What the South is facing may be not just a drought but the first signs of a permanent dry, one to which we'll need to adapt."

Is it me or do they tend to play on the flavor of the day or week at times...
I know climate change is partly to blame for both but these types of articles are generally exploiting current events and have to be taken in that context.

The more we learn the more ignorant we become.
Awesome post, very large in scope, another really big warning sign along our common road. Thanks.
Thank You both for the late afternoon entry on the recent record (we were expecting it any day now from you after Nasa released their April stats last weekend).  Great analysis (the related question) as to how much the current El Nino contributed to the warmth vs. what will probably happen as we transition towards neutral and La Nina conditions by NH Fall. If this persistent, and pronounced, warming continues into 2016, followed by 2017 (and related Arctic melt-Ice loss issues), one has to start to wonder whether the current Paris Treaty goals to try to limit carbon emission related warming at a 1.5 C maximum will be enough to put any noticeable dent in this current trend (too little too late)..........The positive feed backs and accelerated rate of warming in the Arctic far exceeds this proposed global number as it is.      

If we were to experience a similar drop in global temperature later this year—which is possible if we transitioned to a moderate La Niña, as predicted by several models—then the departure from average for the last eight months of the year could be in the neighborhood of 1.02°C. In that case, 2016 will still cruise handily to the title of warmest year on record. The drop from Jan-Apr to May-Dec would need to be twice as large this year as it was in 1998 in order to put this year’s annual average below that of 2015. Small wonder, then, that NASA/GISS director Gavin Schmidt has laid 99% odds on this year becoming the warmest in global records.
always been extreme events. cant wait to blog about atlantic hurricanes.
The last month Earth wasn't hotter than the 20th-century average was December 1984, and the last time Earth set a monthly cold record was almost a hundred years ago, in December 1916, according to NOAA records.

Read more at: Link
Does anyone have a link to the MJO forecast  our a image of it ? Thanks


Starting to let up here for now, though Palm Beach area still looks like heavy rain is falling. I'm assuming that this whole thing will head ne around the ridge to our east ...
Quoting 9. belizeit:

Does anyone have a link to the MJO forecast  our a image of it ? Thanks

No link, but I think upward phase is supposed to be in the EPac next weekend.....
Quoting 7. islander101010:

always been extreme events. cant wait to blog about atlantic hurricanes.


"These kinds of records may not be that interesting, but so many in a row that break the previous records by so much indicates that we're entering uncharted climatic territory (for modern human society)," Texas A&M University climate scientist Andrew Dessler said in an email.



Read more at: Link
Quoting 9. belizeit:

Does anyone have a link to the MJO forecast  our a image of it ? Thanks




The heat will be coming soon, just before the month ends. For now, the wet pattern goes on, and a lot of rain is coming on Saturday.
North America's migratory birds are in 'real trouble,' report finds

"This will come back to bite us if we don't deal with it while we still have a chance."

The shrinking native grasslands that Sprague's pipits shack up in every summer belong to a group of threatened ecosystems flagged in a massive new report released Wednesday on the state of North America's imperilled bird populations. The report says one-third of the roughly 350 migratory bird species across the continent are approaching extinction at an unsettling pace.


Link
Really had a great time out at the Lakefront Airport with the NHC Hurricane Awareness Tour.

Got the C-130 Tour, Spoke with the NOAA G 4 Gonzo Pilot too.



Thanks a lot for the update. These sure are some worrisome figures!

However, a little question concerning your informations related to "disaster 3": At that time I've constantly reported in this blog about the flooding in northeastern Argentina and quite at the same time in adjacent Uruguay, and I remember very well reports about deaths and injuries, unfortunately. It's difficult for me to retrieve those informations right now, but here some links:

The flooding in Entre Rios (Northeastern Argentina) caused a least two deaths (here a Spanish report of "dos muertos").
A week later the same ongoing weather pattern caused five deaths by a tornado in adjacent Uruguay and at the same time four deaths due to flooding. Here a report in English.

I'm not sure these number are the final ones, though. It's always difficult to get weather reports in English from South America. There is a reason the current pope from Argentina once said he was coming from "the end of the world" ;-)
Exxon's Legal Woes Over Climate Change Just Got a New Twist

A short stretch up the Mystic River from Boston Harbor, an oil transfer and storage station operated by ExxonMobil sits at the verge of a high-tide mark that is plainly visible along the blackened shoreline.

That terminal in Everett, Mass., according to the Conservation Law Foundation, routinely violates the legal limits of the company's federal operating permits, usually because of stormy weather. What's more, the New England advocacy group says, the company is knowingly putting local people at risk in the face of imminent climate risks that could someday wash the Everett terminal away—storage tanks, impoundments, oil stockpiles, rickety docks, contaminated soils and all.


Link
Quoting 14. Climate175:

The heat will be coming soon, just before the month ends. For now, the wet pattern goes on, and a lot of rain is coming on Saturday.
They still continue to say we're in a deficit for the year after all this rain!
two Blogs in one day WooHoo....
Quoting 1. Patrap:

Welcome to the Anthropocene.

2016, the Year that AGW Forcing's awaken the Globe to our shared dilemma.

An optimist, I see..
Executives Running Collapsing Coal Companies Award Themselves Millions While Laying Off Workers

Executives of the top coal-producing companies in the country got compensation increases while their companies spiraled into bankruptcy, laid off workers, or tried to slash employee benefits, a new report finds.

Most top executives for Peabody Energy, Arch Coal, and Alpha Natural Resources got compensation increases worth in total millions of dollars as the companies went into massive debt often due to fruitless expansions, the report released Tuesday by Public Citizen, an advocacy organization, found. In conjunction with the report, Public Citizen also sent letters to Peabody Energy, Arch Coal, and Alpha Natural Resources chief executive officers urging them to invest their multi-million dollar bonuses in a trust fund for laid off workers.


Link
Quoting 19. washingtonian115:

They still continue to say we're in a deficit for the year after all this rain!
That's crazy, it has been coming many many times this month.
INDIA'S WESTERNMOST STATE'S LARGEST CITY - NEW RECORD HOTTEST TEMPERATURE: The record all-time hottest temperature in Ahmedabad of 49 C / 120 F was on May 18, 2016. Ahmedabad is the largest city in India's westernmost state, Gujarat.

Link
India’s drought foretells of greater struggles as climate warms

Cracked soils, farmer suicides and desperate migration are at odds with the country's image as an emerging economic and technological power, says T. V. Padma

India is in the grip of a severe drought as a result of two successive weak monsoons and a searing heatwave. Its reservoirs dipped to less than a fifth of their total capacity in May, and a quarter of the country’s 1.1 billion people are estimated to be affected in some way.

Reports of parched, cracked soils, farmers’ suicides and desperate migration from Marathwada in the west of the country – one of the worst-hit regions – are at odds with the country’s image as an emerging economic and technological power, aspiring towards a trillion-dollar economy “with no poverty” by 2032.


Link
Quoting 7. islander101010:

always been extreme events. cant wait to blog about atlantic hurricanes.


The two go hand-in-hand basically: devolving climatic conditions and increased hurricane frequency/intensity. Question is whether we perform collective action as individuals (this can be achieved through enhanced public education) to curb the threat or rely solely on gov't regulation, regulation, regulation, etc. The answer is a little bit of both, but place an emphasis on the former.
Quoting 24. DCSwithunderscores:

INDIA'S WESTERNMOST STATE'S LARGEST CITY - NEW RECORD HOTTEST TEMPERATURE: The record all-time hottest temperature in Ahmedabad of 49 C / 120 F was on May 18, 2016. Ahmedabad is the largest city in India's westernmost state, Gujarat.

Link


The droughts of the 1980s and 1990s were those of poor India, says Sunita Narain, director general of the Centre for Science and Environment in Delhi. “The 2016 drought is of a richer, water-guzzling India.”
Rainfall records broken here in Vero Beach, FL yesterday. But the most bizarre thing that happened was the Hurricane Warning that was broadcast on all local TV stations in the evening. The on-air newsreaders apologized on the 11 O'clock news shows, but some people were freaking out. I tried to explain that it had to be an error but some people didn't believe me. Flori Duh indeed. The networks' apologies rang hollow to me because they essentially pointed their fingers at the National Weather Service. Does no one have any common sense? If NWS mistakenly issued a warning that aliens from Remulak were landing on the shore of Lake Okeechobee these morons would put it on the air without a second thought.
I remember a time in the 1970's when coal companies wanted Colorado water to fuel coal slurry pipelines. to feed a huge web of Southwestern power plants. It was bitter battle. They lost.

But some of the power plants still got built.

Coal maybe the oldest blessing and cancer on the human heart.
Nothing concerns me more than that pool of blue in the North Atlantic.
Quoting 28. UrcaDeLima:

Rainfall records broken here in Vero Beach, FL yesterday. But the most bizarre thing that happened was the Hurricane Warning that was broadcast on all local TV stations in the evening. The on-air newsreaders apologized on the 11 O'clock news shows, but some people were freaking out. I tried to explain that it had to be an error but some people didn't believe me. Flori Duh indeed. The networks' apologies rang hollow to me because they essentially pointed their fingers at the National Weather Service. Does no one have any common sense? If NWS mistakenly issued a warning that aliens from Remulak were landing on the shore of Lake Okeechobee these morons would put it on the air without a second thought.


Well.,..least no one got arrested for saying "climate change" there too.

: P

“The hilltop hour would not be half so wonderful if there were no dark valleys to traverse.”

― Helen Keller
Quoting 28. UrcaDeLima:

Rainfall records broken here in Vero Beach, FL yesterday. But the most bizarre thing that happened was the Hurricane Warning that was broadcast on all local TV stations in the evening. The on-air newsreaders apologized on the 11 O'clock news shows, but some people were freaking out. I tried to explain that it had to be an error but some people didn't believe me. Flori Duh indeed. The networks' apologies rang hollow to me because they essentially pointed their fingers at the National Weather Service. Does no one have any common sense? If NWS mistakenly issued a warning that aliens from Remulak were landing on the shore of Lake Okeechobee these morons would put it on the air without a second thought.


LOCAL AUTHORITIES HAVE CONFIRMED THE LANDING OF AN UNIDENTIFIED AIRCRAFT NEAR CLEWISTON ON THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
Quoting 7. islander101010:

always been extreme events.

That rather misses the point. To wit: extreme events are increasing in amplitude and frequency due to global warming.

It's the same sort of hand waving as saying, "The climate has always changed!" Yes, but things are different this time. It's happening fast and we're causing it.
Quoting 30. wxgeek723:

Nothing concerns me more than that pool of blue in the North Atlantic.


Why?
Will most of the city of Houston be without electricity on Thursday?





Primary concern for organized severe thunderstorms Thursday is
whether sufficient instability will be present for robust updrafts.
This concern is especially true well inland where poor lapse rates
will exist within warm advection Corridor North of effective surface
boundary. In fact...multiple surface boundaries may be noted by
day2...partly due to day1 convective processes and the likelihood
for thunderstorm development over the northwestern Gulf basin during the period.
Forecast soundings suggest the greatest buoyancy will be confined to
the coastal plain of Texas...especially from the middle Texas coast into
southwestern la. While soundings suggest air mass will not be particularly
unstable...approaching middle-level speed maximum and favorable shear
profiles suggest supercells are likely. For this reason have
maintained cat2 severe probs as described in earlier day2 product.
Tornado threat will be limited to surface-based supercells across the
coastal plain where dew points are able to hold in the upper 60s to
near 70f. Convection that develops across this region during the
afternoon will spread downstream into the central Gulf states during
the latter half of the period...however weak instability should
limit severe potential.

There's a word for this: TROUBLE!
A heatwave of over 120F in South Asia,

Hell comes to breakfast.
#35

Greenland is melting like a Popsicle on a NOLA sidewalk in late August...could be my Guess?
Quoting 35. KoritheMan:



Why?


Shutdown or significant slowing of AMOC would be disastrous for eastern North America and Europe.
Patrap

New Orleans is sinking and I don't want to swim.

NASA data shows how quickly New Orleans is sinking

Link
Quoting 36. pureet1948:

Will most of the city of Houston be without electricity on Thursday?





Primary concern for organized severe thunderstorms Thursday is
whether sufficient instability will be present for robust updrafts.
This concern is especially true well inland where poor lapse rates
will exist within warm advection Corridor North of effective surface
boundary. In fact...multiple surface boundaries may be noted by
day2...partly due to day1 convective processes and the likelihood
for thunderstorm development over the northwestern Gulf basin during the period.
Forecast soundings suggest the greatest buoyancy will be confined to
the coastal plain of Texas...especially from the middle Texas coast into
southwestern la. While soundings suggest air mass will not be particularly
unstable...approaching middle-level speed maximum and favorable shear
profiles suggest supercells are likely. For this reason have
maintained cat2 severe probs as described in earlier day2 product.
Tornado threat will be limited to surface-based supercells across the
coastal plain where dew points are able to hold in the upper 60s to
near 70f. Convection that develops across this region during the
afternoon will spread downstream into the central Gulf states during
the latter half of the period...however weak instability should
limit severe potential.

There's a word for this: TROUBLE!



Nobody mention this?
Quoting 40. RobertWC:

Patrap

New Orleans is sinking and I don't want to swim.

NASA data shows how quickly New Orleans is sinking

Link


Been jaw jacking dat with Dr. Michael Mann jus now on FB, and had a lot of that conversation as well with NOAA folks here today at the HH Awareness Tour.

Had a cool time with them
Quoting 41. pureet1948:








What does anyone think?
There is this myth on CNBC that India is the next China.

Nobody makes any money when it's 120F degrees. And there's no fresh water.
Quoting 43. Gearsts:

Nobody mention this?



A lot of the ECMWF ensemble members show development in this area. I still think we'll get Bonnie between June 5 and June 15, probably the former if the ECMWF is correct.

Ask me. I don't make stuff up. I'll indulge you with my immaculate forecasting skills. :P
Quoting 45. pureet1948:




What does anyone think?


There's a chance for severe weather for Texas.
Quoting 48. Bucsboltsfan:



There's a chance for severe weather for Texas.


Of course there is. But will it be anything like the destructive Memorial Day 2015 storm system that produced storms with winds up to 100 mph? Or, does this storm system have anything in common with the severe thunderstorms caused catastrophic hail damage across parts of the Plains and Southeast from April 10 - 13, killing at least one person and injuring dozens more. The Dallas-Fort Worth and San Antonio metro regions in Texas were the hardest hit, where softball and baseball- sized hail?
Quoting 37. RobertWC:

A heatwave of over 120F in South Asia,

Hell comes to breakfast.


You really love that stuff don't you...
Patrap

New Orleans is sinking and I don't want to swim.

Not one study has ever been done on the gulf cost about oil and gas extraction, and land surface subduction. Because all the great schools there are fueled by oil and gas extraction.
Atleast 3 tornadoes confirmed in the Vero Beach area yesterday.

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
611 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2016

...NWS Damage Surveys for 05/17/16 Tornado Events...

.Overview...An upper level weather disturbance combined with an influx of
tropical moisture and added convergence/rotation along the east coast sea
breeze produced several severe thunderstorms which evolved into clusters.
Three separate tornadoes formed, from several different cells.

A NWS Damage Survey team examined the damage by ground and air.

The NWS thanks St. Lucie County and Indian River County Emergency
Management and the St. Lucie County Sheriffs Office for assistance
with the damage surveys.

.Vero Beach Highlands Tornado...

Rating: EF-1
Estimated Peak Wind: 80-90 MPH
Path length /Statute/: 0.20 Miles
Path width /Maximum/: 100 Yards
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: 0

Start date: May 17 2016
Start time: 248 PM EDT
Start location: 4 NW INDRIO / Indian River County / FL
Start Lat/Lon: 27.5689 / -80.4017

End date: May 17 2016
End time: 249 PM EDT
End location: 4 NW Indrio / Indian River County / FL
End_lat/lon: 27.5670 / -80.4020

Survey Summary: The tornado produced approximately a half mile
damage path impacting a width of about three blocks of homes.
The tornado traveled in a southward direction. Two homes sustained
major damage with a significant portion of their roofs damaged.
Sixteen other homes experienced minor damage to roofs, soffits
and pool screen enclosures. Several trees were snapped and two
trees were uprooted. Estimated loss $395,000.

.Lakewood Park Tornado...

Rating: EF-1
Estimated Peak Wind: 80-90 MPH
Path length /Statute/: 0.45 Miles
Path width /Maximum/: 75 Yards
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: 0

Start date: May 17 2016
Start time: 251 PM EDT
Start location: 5 NW Indrio / St. Lucie County / FL
Start Lat/Lon: 27.5578 / -80.4076

End date: May 17 2016
End time: 253 PM EDT
End location: 4 WNW Indrio / St. Lucie County / FL
End_lat/lon: 27.5513 / -80.4085

Survey Summary: The tornado traveled mainly southward for nearly
a half mile. Approximately 15 homes experienced damage, mainly to
their roofs. Numerous trees were snapped and several fences and
pool enclosures were destroyed.

.Road Runner Travel Park Tornado...

Rating: EF-0
Estimated Peak Wind: 65-75 MPH
Path length /Statute/: 0.60 Miles
Path width /Maximum/: 75 Yards
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: 0

Start date: May 17 2016
Start time: 315 PM EDT
Start location: 5 NW Ft. Pierce / St. Lucie County / FL
Start Lat/Lon: 27.4876 / -80.3791

End date: May 17 2016
End time: 318 PM EDT
End location: 4 NW Ft. Pierce / St. Lucie County / FL
End_lat/lon: 27.4807 / -80.3737

Survey Summary: The tornado touched down within the Road Runner
Travel Park and traveled southeast for just over a half mile before
lifting. The tornado toppled four RV's and produced mostly minor
roof and awning damage to several mobile homes. Several trees were
downed and one large tree was snapped several feet above ground level.

EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes into
the following categories.

EF0...Weak......65 to 85 MPH
EF1...Weak......86 to 110 MPH
EF2...Strong....111 to 135 MPH
EF3...Strong....136 to 165 MPH
EF4...Violent...166 To 200 MPH
EF5...Violent...>200 MPH

Note:
The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to
change pending final review of the events and publication in NWS
Damm Steph Curry can't flipping miss.
Quoting 51. luvtogolf:



You really love that stuff don't you...


Too bad you aren't there. You could tell them how 120 F degrees is no big deal.
Quoting 52. RobertWC:

Patrap

New Orleans is sinking and I don't want to swim.

Not one study has ever been done on the gulf cost about oil and gas extraction, and land surface subduction. Because all the great schools there are fueled by oil and gas extraction.


Please, thats so much BS I don't know where to start, so..I wont.

: )

About 20,700 results (0.80 seconds)
Quoting 39. wxgeek723:



Shutdown or significant slowing of AMOC would be disastrous for eastern North America and Europe.


I looked up the implications of that. It does seem rather perilous.
Quoting 51. luvtogolf:

I just think low information folks like your self need to exposed to a wider world.

By the the way -
April 2016: Earth's 12th Consecutive Warmest Month on Record
Quoting 45. pureet1948:

What does anyone think?
Deep.
Never quote idiocy and someone who never brings anything but ilk to the blogs.

Life rolls on without the clutter.

Easily.

Night'
SUbduction and subsidence studies, Southeast Louisiana

56. Patrap

Come on man, is oil and gas extraction driving it ?

We don't know, after sink hole after sink hole.
Is oil and gas extraction causing the gulf coast to sink

About 265,000 results (0.84 seconds)

Link
Darn it I hate when I hit the plus button in error
Quoting 64. SunnyDaysFla:

Darn it I hate when I hit the plus button in error


Your not the lone ranger.


Pretty sight. Now if this could only drift east and rain on the Caymans.....
Quoting 59. bappit:

Quoting 45. pureet1948:

What does anyone think?
Deep.



Frank Billingsley on Channel 2 says the lightning risk with this storm system is high. Is there a chance he could be wrong?
Seeing a lot of lightning south of my location and even seeing lightning from storms out in the Gulf on the far western horizon.

Loving this weather pattern lately!
Please, thats so much BS I don't know where to start, so..I wont.

: )

About 20,700 results (0.80 seconds)


You asked the wrong question .

Ask this one -


Is oil and gas extraction causing the gulf coast to sink

About 265,000 results (0.84 seconds)

That is not my turnip truck parked in Times Square.
Quoting 66. BahaHurican:



Pretty sight. Now if this could only drift east and rain on the Caymans.....


Yeah right :-(

Seriously doubt it. 91 here today. Another scorcher with no clouds.
Quoting 72. kmanislander:



Yeah right :-(

Seriously doubt it. 91 here today. Another scorcher with no clouds.


I have been wondering how the reefs are doing around the Brac and Little Cayman? Of all the places in the
Carib I dove, they were my favorites
Quoting 75. SunnyDaysFla:



I have been wondering how the reefs are doing around the Brac and Little Cayman? Of all the places in the
Carib I dove, they were my favorites


Couldn't say. Not a diver myself and hate to admit that I have not visited the sister islands in years.



00z NAM12 puts worst storms to the north of Houston/Harris County. Now, if only the GFS will support it.....

Anyone have anything to say about this?
Quoting 36. pureet1948:

Will most of the city of Houston be without electricity on Thursday?





Primary concern for organized severe thunderstorms Thursday is
whether sufficient instability will be present for robust updrafts.
This concern is especially true well inland where poor lapse rates
will exist within warm advection Corridor North of effective surface
boundary. In fact...multiple surface boundaries may be noted by
day2...partly due to day1 convective processes and the likelihood
for thunderstorm development over the northwestern Gulf basin during the period.
Forecast soundings suggest the greatest buoyancy will be confined to
the coastal plain of Texas...especially from the middle Texas coast into
southwestern la. While soundings suggest air mass will not be particularly
unstable...approaching middle-level speed maximum and favorable shear
profiles suggest supercells are likely. For this reason have
maintained cat2 severe probs as described in earlier day2 product.
Tornado threat will be limited to surface-based supercells across the
coastal plain where dew points are able to hold in the upper 60s to
near 70f. Convection that develops across this region during the
afternoon will spread downstream into the central Gulf states during
the latter half of the period...however weak instability should
limit severe potential.

There's a word for this: TROUBLE!

You know pureet you get yourself so worked up over this stuff maybe you should consider moving to some place like San Diego where severe weather is extremely rare.

In the end all you can really do is prepare for the worst and hope for the best. What happens happens and we all have to deal with it.
Quoting 78. riverat544:


You know pureet you get yourself so worked up over this stuff maybe you should consider moving to some place like San Diego where severe weather is extremely rare.

In the end all you can really do is prepare for the worst and hope for the best. What happens happens and we all have to deal with it.


LOL in SanDiego he'd be freaking over fires and tremors.
Not so sure around sister islands but the shallow water reefs around grand are in bad shape. In fact I can't even go look anymore

Quoting 76. kmanislander:



Couldn't say. Not a diver myself and hate to admit that I have not visited the sister islands in years.
Quoting 76. kmanislander:



Couldn't say. Not a diver myself and hate to admit that I have not visited the sister islands in years.
Quoting 72. kmanislander:



Yeah right :-(

Seriously doubt it. 91 here today. Another scorcher with no clouds.


lets watch and see it your way





Quoting 84. 19N81W:

Not so sure around sister islands but the shallow water reefs around grand are in bad shape. In fact I can't even go look anymore


yeah all of the lower life chains are going and will move faster up the link as time moves along its not a promising prognosis
Quoting 87. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Interesting graphic KEEPEROFTHEGATE. The hatched red lines only have T-storm chances. Rain is likely. But there's no burgundy to indicate likely and/or severe T-storms. And here are our TV weathermen saying we're going to have a dangerous electrical storm.

Or do I read it wrong?
Quoting 89. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:







1. Does this depict severe T-storms, KEEPEROFTHEGATE?

2. Possible or PROBABLE severe t-storms?
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
CYCLONIC STORM ROANU (BOB01-2016)
5:30 AM IST May 19 2016
===============================
Cyclone Alert for Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coasts (Yellow message)

At 12:00 PM UTC, The deep depression over west central & adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal further moved nearly north northwards at a speed of 8 km/h during past six hours and intensified into a cyclonic storm and was named "Roanu". The cyclonic storm lays centered near 15.1N 81.4E, about 125 km south southeast of Machilipatnam, 350 southwest of Visakhapatnam, and 225 km southwest of Kakinada.

The system is likely to move north northeastwards along and off Andhra Pradesh coast during next 24 hrs and intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm. Subsequently, the system is likely to move northeastwards along & off northern Andhra Pradesh and Odisha during next 48 hours.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T2.5. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lay over Andhra Pradesh adjoining Odisha and west central Bay of Bengal between 12.0N to 20.0N & west of 90.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -93C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The state of the sea is very rough around the center of the cyclonic storm. The central pressure of the system is 992 hPa.

Forecast and intensity
===================
12 HRS 16.1N 82.3E - 50-55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS 17.2N 84.1E - 55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS 19.3N 87.7E - 40-45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS 22.7N 93.5E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)

Additional Information
===================
The sea surface temperature is 31C, ocean thermal energy is about 150 kj/cm2, low level convergence is 30x10-5 second-1, upper level divergence is about 40x10-5second-1, the low level relative vorticity is about (150-200)x10-6 second-1, vertical wind shear is moderate (10-20 knots). Upper tropospheric ridge lies along 17.0N. The Madden-Julian oscillation lies in phase-4 with amplitude > 1.
Quoting 50. luvtogolf:


He always likes to be first and impress everybody with that same stupid graphic and phrase.

..aand you completely missed both my point and Patrap's. But that's ok. At least you got your two cents in.

In other news, I have successfully compiled and run the wrf. ^_^
TIme to move Patrap w/ NOLA sinking?

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
611 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2016

...NWS Damage Surveys for 05/17/16 Tornado Events...

.Overview...An upper level weather disturbance combined with an influx of
tropical moisture and added convergence/rotation along the east coast sea
breeze produced several severe thunderstorms which evolved into clusters.
Three separate tornadoes formed, from several different cells.

A NWS Damage Survey team examined the damage by ground and air.

The NWS thanks St. Lucie County and Indian River County Emergency
Management and the St. Lucie County Sheriffs Office for assistance
with the damage surveys.

.Vero Beach Highlands Tornado...

Rating: EF-1
Estimated Peak Wind: 80-90 MPH
Path length /Statute/: 0.20 Miles
Path width /Maximum/: 100 Yards
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: 0

Start date: May 17 2016
Start time: 248 PM EDT
Start location: 4 NW INDRIO / Indian River County / FL
Start Lat/Lon: 27.5689 / -80.4017

End date: May 17 2016
End time: 249 PM EDT
End location: 4 NW Indrio / Indian River County / FL
End_lat/lon: 27.5670 / -80.4020

Survey Summary: The tornado produced approximately a half mile
damage path impacting a width of about three blocks of homes.
The tornado traveled in a southward direction. Two homes sustained
major damage with a significant portion of their roofs damaged.
Sixteen other homes experienced minor damage to roofs, soffits
and pool screen enclosures. Several trees were snapped and two
trees were uprooted. Estimated loss $395,000.

.Lakewood Park Tornado...

Rating: EF-1
Estimated Peak Wind: 80-90 MPH
Path length /Statute/: 0.45 Miles
Path width /Maximum/: 75 Yards
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: 0

Start date: May 17 2016
Start time: 251 PM EDT
Start location: 5 NW Indrio / St. Lucie County / FL
Start Lat/Lon: 27.5578 / -80.4076

End date: May 17 2016
End time: 253 PM EDT
End location: 4 WNW Indrio / St. Lucie County / FL
End_lat/lon: 27.5513 / -80.4085

Survey Summary: The tornado traveled mainly southward for nearly
a half mile. Approximately 15 homes experienced damage, mainly to
their roofs. Numerous trees were snapped and several fences and
pool enclosures were destroyed.

.Road Runner Travel Park Tornado...

Rating: EF-0
Estimated Peak Wind: 65-75 MPH
Path length /Statute/: 0.60 Miles
Path width /Maximum/: 75 Yards
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: 0

Start date: May 17 2016
Start time: 315 PM EDT
Start location: 5 NW Ft. Pierce / St. Lucie County / FL
Start Lat/Lon: 27.4876 / -80.3791

End date: May 17 2016
End time: 318 PM EDT
End location: 4 NW Ft. Pierce / St. Lucie County / FL
End_lat/lon: 27.4807 / -80.3737

Survey Summary: The tornado touched down within the Road Runner
Travel Park and traveled southeast for just over a half mile before
lifting. The tornado toppled four RV's and produced mostly minor
roof and awning damage to several mobile homes. Several trees were
downed and one large tree was snapped several feet above ground level.

EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes into
the following categories.

EF0...Weak......65 to 85 MPH
EF1...Weak......86 to 110 MPH
EF2...Strong....111 to 135 MPH
EF3...Strong....136 to 165 MPH
EF4...Violent...166 To 200 MPH
EF5...Violent...>200 MPH

Note:
The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to
change pending final review of the events and publication in NWS
Storm Data.

$$

Spratt/Ulrich/Stevenson
I can attest to April being a warm month. Australia's summer was a hot one, the sixth hottest on record, and the country has been very slow to cool down. Warmth has lingered well into autumn. March and April have been the warmest and second warmest on record respectively, with May in a similar ball-park.

It was a very balmy 82.6°F (28.1°C) here on Tuesday. We are less than 100mm behind the yearly average but compared to last year, we're just under 300mm difference, and yet, we've been through the second strongest El Nino ever experienced.
Quoting 94. Dakster:

TIme to move Patrap w/ NOLA sinking?

NOLA is a major port city located at the mouth of the Mississippi River*. The amount of commerce that passes through there coming down the river and coming in and going upriver is huge. Heroic efforts to keep New Orleans viable will be taken as long as possible to keep that port city open.

*As long as the Mississippi River doesn't decide it prefers the Atchafalaya River outflow and won't take no for an answer.
toronto bluejays knuckleballer is having a bad start to his 2016 yr. this partially is because he's been pitching in cool weather. why does a knuckleball have more twist or sink in warmer weather?
101. beell
Quoting 59. bappit:

Quoting 45. pureet1948:

What does anyone think?
Deep.


i stink, therefore, i am.
Good Morning; the Conus forecast for today; lots of rain and precip out there:

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
342 AM EDT Thu May 19 2016

Valid 12Z Thu May 19 2016 - 12Z Sat May 21 2016

...Heavy rain and severe thunderstorms possible over portions of Texas and
Louisiana...

...Potential heavy rain expected across the Southeast, Tennessee Valley,
and Mid-Atlantic...

...Rain expected for the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin...
And the current look, related jet, and ULL headed E-NE out of Nevada:





Already setting up across Texas this morning for lots of rain and potential flooding heading East:

South Plains sector loop

In terms of the current heating issues, here is the forecast for interior portions of Alaska later today; well into the upper 60's in several spots and look at the comparison for Conus later this evening:


106. elioe
+14 C and partially cloudy today at Tampere. Chance of rain 10% or less for the next five days, so good weather for a bicycle trip, and weekend activities outside.

As I mentioned in a comment before, this April was notable here for exceptional precipitation, in places twice the normal amount. Temperatures were not so significant. But that is forecast to change. Below is the expected average April temperature in my town in degrees Celsius (red for A2, brown for A1B and green for B1 scenario)



And here the change in temperature between 2071-2100 and 1981-2010, as predicted for A2 scenario:



Not sure though, which models they are using. Images generated on this site.

Personally, I'm eager to experience those warm springs of future.
107. ariot
Quoting 100. islander101010:

toronto bluejays knuckleballer is having a bad start to his 2016 yr. this partially is because he's been pitching in cool weather. why does a knuckleball have more twist or sink in warmer weather?


Air density. The colder the temperature, the denser the air, the less the spin.

No spin, you get bricks.


Woke up to a tiny cluster of low level clouds ushered in on the unseasonally strong se winds while the temp and dew point were relatively close still. Alas they were gone as soon as I poured a cup of coffee. Skies virtually cloudless again and temps already well into the 80,s and drying out. No rain forcast. It seems as if Caymans vegetation and once lushness were created during a wet period in our history because it could never have gotten to this level with the rain we have seen over the last couple years.
Phalodi, India today: I found the reading of 51° C (no decimals). Might suggest the Indian record of 50.6° C has gone.
Quoting 93. Mediarologist:


..aand you completely missed both my point and Patrap's. But that's ok. At least you got your two cents in.

In other news, I have successfully compiled and run the wrf. ^_^


Congrats. That's a solid accomplishment, though out of the scientific models I've dealt with WRF is one of the more "friendlier" ones. :D

It's not much more effort to do the same for HWRF if you're looking into the tropics. :)
Quoting 100. islander101010:

toronto bluejays knuckleballer is having a bad start to his 2016 yr. this partially is because he's been pitching in cool weather. why does a knuckleball have more twist or sink in warmer weather?


Didn't he pitch in doors last night?
Looks like the weather is going to get very bumpy for Texas and LA this morning; the combined low driving the front and location of the jet is going to bring some pretty strong straight line winds along with the T-storms: SPC went up to an enhanced risk earlier this morning for parts of the Texas coast:







We had a surprise thunderstorm at about 1-2 am here in Fort Myers. Most locations saw about 1-2" of rain.
[additional caffeine needed mode:enabled -you have been warned]
Headline from today's WU News and Video section:
"Will Hurricane Drought End In Florida?"
Link

I would take issue with the usage of 'drought' in this context. 'Drought' is not just the absence of a thing, it also indicates that the absence of a thing causes injury or damage. The absence (drought) of Hurricanes in Florida has the opposite effect as it reduces injury or damage to Florida's flora and fauna, and, well everything else!
My grammar is not perfect and in the 'Big Picture' the proper use of words is pretty far down on the totem pole of life skills. BUT (here I make my case for taking up your time reading this psuedo-rant) being that this is WU and as a thought leader in all things weather related, and that 'DROUGHT' is a significant weather related term, I believe that it should not have been used in the context of the aforementioned headline and that its use in said headline will alone lead to an increase in future improper usage thus diluting the term's definition and affording the continuation of the demise of the intellect of the Western Culture at large.
Have a nice day!
[Time for that second cup of coffee]


Key West's turn today....

Quoting 115. GeoffreyWPB:

Key West's turn today....




Ugly, not a good day for divers.
The US Drought Monitor issued this morning; pretty good overall with the exception of the persistent issue in the SW and particularly that part of California that has not received enough rain during this El Nino Winter-Spring as compared to other parts of the US:


Current U.S. Drought Monitor

118. bwi
Quoting 99. BaltimoreBrian:

!!! 'Fundamentally unstable': Scientists confirm their fears about East Antarctica's biggest glacier


If you have a strong stomach, wade back through the comment section of the Post article. It's instructive if a bit nauseating. Somehow we have developed a whole lot of people who have completely lost connection with facts and believe that that if they believe something, it must be true. Sort of pre-enlightenment, actually.

I realize some are trolls just saying nonsense to be disruptive, but I'd wager that lots of those commenters actually believe what they are saying. That the earth hasn't warmed or that the seas haven't risen or ice measures haven't decreased -- actual observable, measurable stuff they they'd deny on its face. Sort of like the Monty Python skit with the dead parrot.

Guys, the parrot is dead. It's not just resting. It's not a conspiracy. We all need to do a better job explaining basic facts to people I suppose. These guys aren't science deniers as much as fact deniers. They're going to put roadblocks on adaptation, let alone prevention, unless we can somehow persuade them to accept facts about fundamental, measurable stuff like temperature readings!
Looks like a wet morning, after a wet night.
Quoting 118. bwi:



If you have a strong stomach, wade back through the comment section of the Post article. It's instructive if a bit nauseating. Somehow we have developed a whole lot of people who have completely lost connection with facts and believe that that if they believe something, it must be true. Sort of pre-enlightenment, actually.

I realize some are trolls just saying nonsense to be disruptive, but I'd wager that lots of those commenters actually believe what they are saying. That the earth hasn't warmed or that the seas haven't risen or ice measures haven't decreased -- actual observable, measurable stuff they they'd deny on its face. Sort of like the Monty Python skit with the dead parrot.

Guys, the parrot is dead. It's not just resting. It's not a conspiracy. We all need to do a better job explaining basic facts to people I suppose. These guys aren't science deniers as much as fact deniers. They're going to put roadblocks on adaptation, let alone prevention, unless we can somehow persuade them to accept facts about fundamental, measurable stuff like temperature readings!

Given up on that. Only confrontation works, and this only for about 1-2 years.
Quoting 118. bwi:



If you have a strong stomach, wade back through the comment section of the Post article. It's instructive if a bit nauseating. Somehow we have developed a whole lot of people who have completely lost connection with facts and believe that that if they believe something, it must be true. Sort of pre-enlightenment, actually.

I realize some are trolls just saying nonsense to be disruptive, but I'd wager that lots of those commenters actually believe what they are saying. That the earth hasn't warmed or that the seas haven't risen or ice measures haven't decreased -- actual observable, measurable stuff they they'd deny on its face. Sort of like the Monty Python skit with the dead parrot.

Guys, the parrot is dead. It's not just resting. It's not a conspiracy. We all need to do a better job explaining basic facts to people I suppose. These guys aren't science deniers as much as fact deniers. They're going to put roadblocks on adaptation, let alone prevention, unless we can somehow persuade them to accept facts about fundamental, measurable stuff like temperature readings!
Unfortunately explaining and showing people the facts and science doesn't do much to their "beliefs". These beliefs are rooted in metaphysics and greed. Look at the dullards on here who constantly post things like "yawn" or the like in the face of overwhelming scientific evidence. Logic and science doesn't work... What they deserve is a swift slap in the face with a rubber glove and to be shoved into a corner and forced to wear a dunce cap.
123. ariot
Quoting 118. bwi:



If you have a strong stomach, wade back through the comment section of the Post article. It's instructive if a bit nauseating. Somehow we have developed a whole lot of people who have completely lost connection with facts and believe that that if they believe something, it must be true. Sort of pre-enlightenment, actually.

I realize some are trolls just saying nonsense to be disruptive, but I'd wager that lots of those commenters actually believe what they are saying. That the earth hasn't warmed or that the seas haven't risen or ice measures haven't decreased -- actual observable, measurable stuff they they'd deny on its face. Sort of like the Monty Python skit with the dead parrot.

Guys, the parrot is dead. It's not just resting. It's not a conspiracy. We all need to do a better job explaining basic facts to people I suppose. These guys aren't science deniers as much as fact deniers. They're going to put roadblocks on adaptation, let alone prevention, unless we can somehow persuade them to accept facts about fundamental, measurable stuff like temperature readings!


The Post must clean that up, but they won't. They love the ROI from having users' data when they sign up or sign in to comment. It's a data mine, and it helps keep the price up on web ads (even though that price is low, comparatively speaking.)

The denier swarm is also symptom of broad issues we've ignored far too long.
On the issue of awareness/ignorance as to climate change issues can you blame the ignorant when the government and private industry in the US sends the opposite signal to the masses. Using the automotive industry as one major example. In an enlightened climate [pun intended], and either by government regulation or voluntary action and promotion, most/all US automakers should be transitioning aggressively towards all electric/hybrid models, using scales of economy to lower prices, and phase out gas guzzling-high Co2 emmision engines for higher MPGs. Tesla is heading in that direction but their cars are too expensive for most folks but it proves that it can be done with great looking cars/lines that look sporty but are energy efficient. Instead, many US automakers are pushing, and selling, low MPG muscle cars like there is no tomorrow and oil is still an infinite resource..............There is a huge disconnect between the reality (the science) and the perception (private industry).
EURO showing some form of development in the northwest caribben towards the end of the month. could well be Bonnie.
Local cooling trumps global warming. Mid Atlantic LOCALLY has been remarkably chilly since the last week of April.

And no this doesn't mean doodly about possible pause of AGW.. AGW is still happening, we're just in front of the global AC vent or open fridge door right now (and incidentally with the door open the contents are warming to excessive levels :-) )
128. bwi
It's pretty easy to spot the Fort MacMurray fire on the nullschool carbon monoxide visualization
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/chem/surfac e/level/overlay=cosc/orthographic=-113.37,56.35,51 2/loc=-109.210,55.612
Quoting 124. weathermanwannabe:

On the issue of awareness/ignorance as to climate change issues can you blame the ignorant when the government and private industry in the US sends the opposite signal to the masses. Using the automotive industry as one major example. In an enlightened climate [pun intended], and either by government regulation or voluntary action and promotion, most/all US automakers should be transitioning aggressively towards all electric/hybrid models, using scales of economy to lower prices, and phase out gas guzzling-high Co2 emmision engines for higher MPGs. Tesla is heading in that direction but their cars are too expensive for most folks but it proves that it can be done with great looking cars/lines that look sporty but are energy efficient. Instead, many US automakers are pushing, and selling, low MPG muscle cars like there is no tomorrow and oil is still an infinite resource..............There is a huge disconnect between the reality (the science) and the perception (private industry).


The primary issue with cost of electric cars remains cost of the batteries and esp. raw materials for them. Economies of scale have already been achieved for Lithium Ion batteries and we need fundamental R&D to reduce those costs or explore alternative.

At the moment electric energy is only slightly less expensive than Gasoline due to the recent sharp decline in
gasoline prices in the U.S.
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 19h19 hours ago
Due in part to a strong #ElNino, 2015 broke record for major hurricane-strength TCs in a calendar year (38).
Quoting 128. bwi:

It's pretty easy to spot the Fort MacMurray fire on the nullschool carbon monoxide visualization
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/chem/surfac e/level/overlay=cosc/orthographic=-113.37,56.35,51 2/loc=-109.210,55.612

Yes, and its Siberian twin not a pretty sight either. earth-nullschool
Wildfires keep spreading in Russian East Siberia - May 19 - TASS

What's up with Roanu?

Quoting 129. georgevandenberghe:



The primary issue with cost of electric cars remains cost of the batteries and esp. raw materials for them. Economies of scale have already been achieved for Lithium Ion batteries and we need fundamental R&D to reduce those costs or explore alternative.

At the moment electric energy is only slightly less expensive than Gasoline due to the recent sharp decline in
gasoline prices in the U.S.


Good Points. However, on the oil issue, we need to keep our eye on the ball (getting away from fossil fuel dependence-emissions) rather than continuing to exploit and burn new oil sources like the oil sands/shale deposits in North America and starting to eye oil deposits in the Arctic (as the ice melts away providing easier access).

I do recognize that it is going to to take a lot of science and research (and decades) to transition the globe away from the industrial and agricultural fossil fuel revolution of the last 100 years upon which we have based modern industrial society. However, just noting that private industry is going to put up a huge fight (based on the short-term profit motive) in the meantime unless we see some major scientific breakthroughs like you have noted making it just as profitable to go green.
I'm no expert, but I've read negative things about them. Here's just one article I read.

Tesla Motors' Dirty Little Secret Is a Major Problem
Link

"The extraction of lithium has significant environmental and social impacts, especially due to water pollution and depletion. In addition, toxic chemicals are needed to process lithium. The release of such chemicals through leaching, spills or air emissions can harm communities, ecosystems and food production. Moreover, lithium extraction inevitably harms the soil and also causes air contamination."

" However, according to Climate Central, in 46 states Tesla's Model S is the least climate-friendly EV, and it's worse than all but two hybrids when it comes to CO2 emissions over 100,000 miles of driving. When you couple that with the above information from the EPA, it's clear that Tesla isn't nearly as "green" as it wants you to believe."
Quoting 63. RobertWC:

Is oil and gas extraction causing the gulf coast to sink

About 265,000 results (0.84 seconds)

Link


I read a few of the links. Interesting stuff. It is not the carbon extraction per se that is the problem but rather the levee system built to support carbon extraction and commerce to the port of New Orleans that prevents soil deposition and plant growth that replenish the land areas that are inherently subsiding. As always, the issue is a question of trade-offs.

From the Scientific American article link:
"There are other forces at work, including a series of geologic faults in the delta and the rock layers beneath, but a U.S. Department of Interior report says oil and gas canals are ultimately responsible for 30 to 59 percent of coastal land loss. In some areas of Barataria Bay, said Turner at LSU, it’s close to 90 percent."
Quoting 131. 999Ai2016:


Yes, and its Siberian twin not a pretty sight either. earth-nullschool
Wildfires keep spreading in Russian East Siberia - May 19 - TASS

What's up with Roanu?




It made landfall.

Edit: Or its proximity to land caused it to suck in a lot of drier air causing it to weaken?
133. Sfloridacat5
11:18 AM EDT on May 19, 2016

Great point; even so called "green" efforts are also subject to pitfalls as well as potential exploitation in the public market-place.  Volkswagen was caught last year with their dirty secret as to selling "green" diesel cars/engines.  They lied about the actual emissions levels but still sold a bunch of those cars (before getting caught) to green purchasers thinking they were helping the environment. 
137. VR46L
Quoting 126. stoormfury:

EURO showing some form of development in the northwest caribben towards the end of the month. could well be Bonnie.


Shhhh ... I know some folk still in therapy since the last Bonnie .... I am not sure ,they realise their night mere was not retired !
Quoting 119. washingtonian115:



Man that picture is getting scary by the day
Quoting 124. weathermanwannabe:

On the issue of awareness/ignorance as to climate change issues can you blame the ignorant when the government and private industry in the US sends the opposite signal to the masses. Using the automotive industry as one major example. In an enlightened climate [pun intended], and either by government regulation or voluntary action and promotion, most/all US automakers should be transitioning aggressively towards all electric/hybrid models, using scales of economy to lower prices, and phase out gas guzzling-high Co2 emmision engines for higher MPGs. Tesla is heading in that direction but their cars are too expensive for most folks but it proves that it can be done with great looking cars/lines that look sporty but are energy efficient. Instead, many US automakers are pushing, and selling, low MPG muscle cars like there is no tomorrow and oil is still an infinite resource..............There is a huge disconnect between the reality (the science) and the perception (private industry).


Just had a FB 'friend' post a nice video about The 12 Biggest Science Lies we have been told.. #9 was "CO2 is going to destroy the planet".. their explanation is "CO2 is food for plants! Rising C02 actually 'greens' the planet and accelerates reforestation, plant growth and food crop production."


What's worse is the excited positive reaction that so many people are expressing for it.. ugh


140. bwi
Quoting 127. georgevandenberghe:

Local cooling trumps global warming. Mid Atlantic LOCALLY has been remarkably chilly since the last week of April.

And no this doesn't mean doodly about possible pause of AGW.. AGW is still happening, we're just in front of the global AC vent or open fridge door right now (and incidentally with the door open the contents are warming to excessive levels :-) )


After a very cold winter in Hudson bay and north Quebec, thawing now getting underway. Once that icebox to our north thaws a bit more, less of an airconditioner for us to its south maybe!
Quoting 133. Sfloridacat5:

I'm no expert, but I've read negative things about them. Here's just one article I read.

Tesla Motors' Dirty Little Secret Is a Major Problem
Link

"The extraction of lithium has significant environmental and social impacts, especially due to water pollution and depletion. In addition, toxic chemicals are needed to process lithium. The release of such chemicals through leaching, spills or air emissions can harm communities, ecosystems and food production. Moreover, lithium extraction inevitably harms the soil and also causes air contamination."

" However, according to Climate Central, in 46 states Tesla's Model S is the least climate-friendly EV, and it's worse than all but two hybrids when it comes to CO2 emissions over 100,000 miles of driving. When you couple that with the above information from the EPA, it's clear that Tesla isn't nearly as "green" as it wants you to believe."


Tesla is one of the biggest scams perpetrated on the US taxpayer. Along the exemption for wind power to kill over a million birds and bats every year. The US government fines oil companies for killing even a single bird.

We already have the technology for reliable carbon free energy. Use nuclear power to generate electricity to split water to hydrogen. Hydrogen fuel cells produce no CO2 or smog, just water vapor and heat. Annual US high level nuclear waste from power plants is approximately 30 cubic meters.
Atlantic basin visible imagery


Ladies and Gentlemen.....we have incoming

144. bwi
Perhaps a new record high for inaccuracies per paragraph? I'm thinking that's at least a 0.12 coefficient of wrongness per word. Impressive!

Tesla is one of the biggest scams perpetrated on the US taxpayer. Along the exemption for wind power to kill over a millions of birds and bats every year. The US government fines oil companies for killing even a single bird.
Quoting 138. bigwes6844:


Man that picture is getting scary by the day


warming faster now soon the entire region will be red

gonna get interesting

Quoting 143. RitaEvac:

Ladies and Gentlemen.....we have incoming




its gonna rain

lol
Quoting 146. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



its gonna rain

lol


Rather have excessive rain over drought any day. Been thru both.
Quoting 145. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



warming faster now soon the entire region will be red

gonna get interesting



Yea that caught my eye the other day when you posted last year and this year comparison and 2005. This season won't be boring I tell you that much Keep!
Quoting 150. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



Stop. You'll give pureet a heart attack.
Quoting 151. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Stop. You'll give pureet a heart attack.
lol
No strong wind-storm reports for the past 3 hours for Texas; more of a pure rain event so far as opposed to a shear driven wind event as the jet has moved further South into Mexico this morning:








The heat goes on, especially in India. Just added this to our post:

Update: On Thursday, May 19, Phalodi reached a high of 51.0°C (123.8°F]--a clear record for the highest temperature ever observed in India.

Monthly summary for Phalodi, India
Quoting 157. BobHenson:

The heat goes on, especially in India. Just added this to our post:

Update: On Thursday, May 19, Phalodi reached a high of 51.0°C (123.8°F]--a clear record for the highest temperature ever observed in India.

Monthly summary for Phalodi, India


Thanks for the Stat; while a land record will also note that the Indian Ocean currently also has what appears to be some of the the hottest SSTs on the planet:

global hires sst map
Quoting 140. bwi:



After a very cold winter in Hudson bay and north Quebec, thawing now getting underway. Once that icebox to our north thaws a bit more, less of an airconditioner for us to its south maybe!


Is this meant to be funny? Winter, and March in those regions was very mild. April was a bit cold in the Hudson Bay.
Quoting 138. bigwes6844:


Man that picture is getting scary by the day

Let the MJO come in..
I think Roanu may have plowed into the Indian Coastline.



Wind profiles have it much closer to the coast.





162. JRRP7


Quoting 158. weathermanwannabe:



Thanks for the Stat; while a land record will also note that the Indian Ocean currently also has what appears to be some of the the hottest SSTs on the planet:

global hires sst map
Here's the latest SST Anomaly map, dark orange sections are 3.0C warmer
Under the NOAA G-4 hanging with "GONZO" yesterday at the Lakefront Airport.



Quoting 129. georgevandenberghe:



The primary issue with cost of electric cars remains cost of the batteries and esp. raw materials for them. Economies of scale have already been achieved for Lithium Ion batteries and we need fundamental R&D to reduce those costs or explore alternative.

At the moment electric energy is only slightly less expensive than Gasoline due to the recent sharp decline in
gasoline prices in the U.S.
Unfortunately, the issue is the same as for AGW solutions -- lack of will. EVs have been fully functional and economical for a century or more, but they lack the range of ICE-powered cars. Yet an enormous amount of US driving is short trips -- commutes of less than 30 miles -- all of which could be electric. Battery capacity doesn't come into it. Golf cart batteries are perfectly adequate for such uses and all that prevents us applying this solution to the problem is will power. The lithium-ion powered Tesla is sexier and makes a good flagship EV but it is not practical for general commuting -- the Reva will do as nicely for about 25% or less the price. We HAVE TO get used to doing things right instead of the fanciest sexiest way.
Quoting 148. bigwes6844:


Yea that caught my eye the other day when you posted last year and this year comparison and 2005. This season won't be boring I tell you that much Keep!


Could someone please post the link to this graph. Thanks
Quoting 129. georgevandenberghe:



... Economies of scale have already been achieved for Lithium Ion batteries ...


Fortunately, that part is not true. Costs of lithium ion batteries are still plummeting faster than anyone could have guessed. The 2nd half of this article explains:

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2016/05/12/37767 28/climate-change-solutions/
Quoting 163. JNFlori30A:

Here's the latest SST Anomaly map, dark orange sections are 3.0C warmer



That oceanic temperature increase is quite frightening. Warmer oceans absorb both CO2 and O2 less efficiently. In addition, warmer surface water mixes less well due to stratification as it expands.

April saw the highest year on year jump in atmospheric CO2 in the record, by a huge margin. Usually, it's around 2 ppm, but the April figure exceeded 4 ppm. Scientists have pointed the finger at Amazonian drought, caused by El Nino, but I think the warmer oceans must have contributed.

Perhaps more worrying, if the ocean absorbs less oxygen, then atmospheric oxygen levels must increase. I'm not aware if any research is being done to monitor this. In the distant past, mass extinction events were associated with three factors in combination - global warming, anoxic oceans, and the deposition of a carbon layer in rock strata, indicating that the world burned. It only takes a very small increase in atmospheric oxygen to greatly increase wildfires. Perhaps this explains the carbon layer.

Here's a snippet from a Scientific American article:

The influence of climate change was evident in areas with either extreme incidents of oxygen depletion or longer-than-normal trends of low oxygen levels. Places like the southern Indian Ocean that showed the strongest warming signal the soonest tend to be the areas that will see the worst affects of warming, he explained.
Those changes have a significant impact on a wide range of marine life.
%u201COxygen is playing a fundamental role in where species can live or not live,%u201D he said.
For each degree of ocean warming, oxygen concentration goes down by 2 percent. Over the short term, the higher temperatures slow the rate of ocean circulation, exacerbating regional oxygen depletion. The rising temperatures cause layers of ocean water to stratify so the more oxygen-rich surface waters are less able to mix with oxygen-poor waters from the deeper ocean.
At the same time, the higher temperatures are putting more stress on marine species, causing their metabolisms to speed up and their need for oxygen to increase.
%u201CSo you have effects squeezing them on both sides,%u201D Deutsch said.


Full article here
Quoting 164. Patrap:

Under the NOAA G-4 hanging with "GONZO" yesterday at the Lakefront Airport.






Cool pic man. They had all the planes in Galveston as well this week.
Meso low formed and bowing out

Trying to upload you guys a cool image, but can't figure it out!
Quoting 172. SecretStormNerd:

Trying to upload you guys a cool image, but can't figure it out!

in the image code delete the s at the end of https to post image
Quoting 172. SecretStormNerd:

Trying to upload you guys a cool image, but can't figure it out!


Remove the "s" on the word "https"
Quoting 168. yonzabam:



That oceanic temperature increase is quite frightening. Warmer oceans absorb both CO2 and O2 less efficiently. In addition, warmer surface water mixes less well due to stratification as it expands.

April saw the highest year on year jump in atmospheric CO2 in the record, by a huge margin. Usually, it's around 2 ppm, but the April figure exceeded 4 ppm. Scientists have pointed the finger at Amazonian drought, caused by El Nino, but I think the warmer oceans must have contributed.

Perhaps more worrying, if the ocean absorbs less oxygen, then atmospheric oxygen levels must increase. I'm not aware if any research is being done to monitor this. In the distant past, mass extinction events were associated with three factors in combination - global warming, anoxic oceans, and the deposition of a carbon layer in rock strata, indicating that the world burned. It only takes a very small increase in atmospheric oxygen to greatly increase wildfires. Perhaps this explains the carbon layer.

Here's a snippet from a Scientific American article:

The influence of climate change was evident in areas with either extreme incidents of oxygen depletion or longer-than-normal trends of low oxygen levels. Places like the southern Indian Ocean that showed the strongest warming signal the soonest tend to be the areas that will see the worst affects of warming, he explained.
Those changes have a significant impact on a wide range of marine life.
%u201COxygen is playing a fundamental role in where species can live or not live,%u201D he said.
For each degree of ocean warming, oxygen concentration goes down by 2 percent. Over the short term, the higher temperatures slow the rate of ocean circulation, exacerbating regional oxygen depletion. The rising temperatures cause layers of ocean water to stratify so the more oxygen-rich surface waters are less able to mix with oxygen-poor waters from the deeper ocean.
At the same time, the higher temperatures are putting more stress on marine species, causing their metabolisms to speed up and their need for oxygen to increase.
%u201CSo you have effects squeezing them on both sides,%u201D Deutsch said.


Full article here

Things like this. Plus the coral die-off, taiga burn, permafrost melt, Arctic Ocean fertilization.
Tipping points are about crossing thresholds in the forcing of buffered systems such that negative feedback processes turn into positive ones - creating resonances instead of dampings. Where a single butterfly can become a scourge overnight, instead of drowning out in mediating statistics. Where CO2 sinks become the hugest emitters, perhaps.

It is unspeakably frustrating that we cannot see the switches, or the moments they are flipped, or whether they have already been flipped in the kind of complex ecological systems, and the climate system, this pertains to.

Afraid I'm a bit cryptic with thermodynamical and mathematical pseudophilosophy there. There should be simpler ways to get a hang of the theme across. Or perhaps it's just all too frightening, we are not right now experiencing it so there should always be a mañana..
https://icons.wunderground.com/data/wximagenew/k/KE EPEROFTHEGATE/5102.gif

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/wximagenew/k/K EEPEROFTHEGATE/5102.gif

^ remove s delete careful only to delete s
Quoting 143. RitaEvac:

Ladies and Gentlemen.....we have incoming




I hope pureet is somewhere safe and okay. I worry about them during these storms.
Quoting 162. JRRP7:




Quoting 151. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Stop. You'll give pureet a heart attack.


i put on a pink dress and i save you
it needs to be farther west:(

Quoting 178. Gearsts:


Although technically Roanu may not have made landfall. In fact, it looks as mid-level circulation may have split off and moved inland with the low level circulation staying off-shore.



Edit: Courtesy of CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Group
Quoting 143. RitaEvac:

Ladies and Gentlemen.....we have incoming




Thant is one impressive mesocyclone
90 degrees ambient with a real feel of 111

and not a cloud in sight

can anyone comment on whats happening in our area that is not allowing for any daytime heating storms?

Quoting 177. terstorm:



I hope pureet is somewhere safe and okay. I worry about them during these storms.


Yes, these weather events do seem to make pureet about as nervous as a long tailed cat in room full of rocking chairs. :)
Two of the current warmest spots based on the SST anomaly chart are a) the Gulf Stream piling up below the North Atlantic cold pool off of Greenland and b) the Gulf of Alaska..................Possibly related in the big scheme of things.....
climate indicator
Well we are under an omega block here in Southern Wisconsin again. This is the 2nd or 3rd time this year and they have all been a month apart. Which going by that logic means another one around mid June or so. Hopefully not the case because mid June omega blocks generally cause large droughts and heat waves for us.
Quoting 184. 19N81W:

90 degrees ambient with a real feel of 111

and not a cloud in sight

can anyone comment on whats happening in our area that is not allowing for any daytime heating storms?




High pressure
must be an inversion because its about 29.97 which isnt really that high is it?
but the bermuda high is typically what kills us
Quoting 188. RitaEvac:



High pressure

Cod fishing in Maine on board the F/V Ellen Diane. (Credit: Gulf of Maine Research Institute)


Climate change is doing some very strange things to the waters off New England
By Chris Mooney October 29, 2015


A new scientific study says that rapidly warming waters off the New England coast have had a severe consequence — the collapse of a cod fishery that saw too many catches even as overall cod numbers declined due to warmer seas.

It’s just the latest in a series of findings and occurrences — ranging from gigantic snows in Boston last winter, which scientists partly linked with warm seas, to a sudden and “extreme” sea level rise event in 2009-2010 — suggesting that this particular stretch of water is undergoing profound changes.

“2004 to 2013, we ended up warming faster than really any other marine ecosystem has ever experienced over a 10 year period,” says Andrew Pershing of the Gulf of Maine Research Institute, lead author of the new study just out in the journal Science. Pershing conducted the work with researchers from his institution and several others in the U.S. including NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colo., and Stony Brook University in New York.

The paper reports that during the decade-long period in question, the Gulf of Maine, the ocean region extending from Cape Cod northeast to the southern tip of Nova Scotia, warmed up by a stunning 0.23 degrees Celsius per year (0.41 degrees Fahrenheit). That’s faster warming than occurred in 99.9 percent of the rest of the world ocean, the scientists say.

[No, global warming is not going to take away your fish and chips]

During the same time period, this fishery’s managers did reduce cod quotas, but not enough — presumably because of a lack of realization about the rapidly warming waters and their stark effects on fish. As a consequence, the overall cod stock now stands at just 4 percent of its optimum size.

Last November, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced sharp restrictions on cod fishing in the area, with harsh consequences for fishing dependent communities like Gloucester, Mass. “The Gulf of Maine cod stock, a historic icon of the New England fishery, is in the worst shape we have seen in the 40 years that we have been monitoring it,” said John Bullard, NOAA Fisheries regional administrator for the greater Atlantic region, at the time.

At the center of the new study is a demonstration of just how tightly all of this is related to warm waters. Here’s a figure the researchers created to describe their findings:


Slow adaptation in the face of rapid warming leads to the collapse of Atlantic cod in the Gulf of
Maine.
(Credit: Pershing et al. / Lenfest Ocean Program)
The effect of warm waters on Atlantic cod likely occurs because of a harmful effect on larvae and juvenile fish. But the scientists say they don’t fully understand whether it is related to changes in cod predators or prey, or simply the temperature itself. Warmer temperatures also pose a metabolic challenge to cod as they reach critical reproductive age.

The disaster for the fishery wasn’t caused by temperatures alone, however — it was also caused by how humans failed to take them into account, the researchers charge. “Ignoring the influence of temperature produces recruitment estimates that are on average 100% and up to 360% higher than if temperature is included,” the study authors write. Thus, in effect, cod were overfished because ocean warming wasn’t adequately considered in fishing quotas.

The effect has not, to be sure, been the same for all species. Take lobsters, for instance, which are now thriving in the same waters. “They’re the flipside of cod,” says Pershing. “They are booming now, especially off the coast of Maine, and that’s due in part to the fact that there are fewer cod which eat lobsters, but also due to the warmer water, which helps them grow faster.”

The consequence of the dramatic downturn for the cod fishery has likely been significant for some fishing communities, although there are no definitive data on the matter, says Pershing’s colleague Jen Levin, who manages the sustainable seafood program at the Gulf of Maine Research Institute. But Levin says that the availability of cod on people’s plates hasn’t changed much, since globally, other fisheries are doing far better, such as in the Bering Sea.

“From an industry perspective, seafood is one of the most traded commodities on the planet, so as far as what’s available on the marketplace, you can still find cod, it’s just not from here, it’s from other parts of the world,” says Levin.

What’s most intriguing is what is causing the dramatically warm waters — and how this may relate to other observed changes in the region.

Clearly, part of the cause is the overall ocean warming trend that has been seen around the globe due to climate change. But at the same time, the researchers say, the warm and salty Gulf Stream has also moved northward over the course of the last century. In late 2011, in fact, there was a dramatic northward movement that led to the warming of some New England lobster traps by more than 6 degrees Celsius, or over 10 degrees Fahrenheit.

[Global warming is now slowing down the circulation of the oceans — with potentially dire consequences]

This change has also been linked to a warming climate, but for more complex reasons. Among other factors, the northward shift of the Gulf Stream appears tied to a larger change in Atlantic ocean circulation — the slowing of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, which carries warm surface water northward and cold water southward at depth, and is driven by differences in temperature and salinity of these waters.

“AMOC interacts with the bottom of the ocean and when it slows, the interaction with the bottom causes the Gulf stream to shift north,” says Michael Alexander, one of the study authors and a researcher at NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colo., by e-mail. “Once the Gulf Stream shifts north some of the warm water it carries is able to work its way into coastal waters, including the Gulf of Maine.”


“There are long-term changes in ocean circulation in the North Atlantic, most likely driven by anthropogenic climate change, that have led to a ‘cold blo[b]‘ in the sub-polar central North Atlantic, but might actually be responsible at least in part for the anomalous warmth in the far western North Atlantic,” adds Penn State University climate researcher Michael Mann, who reviewed the new study for the Post. In effect, the idea is that as less warm water moves north into the waters below Greenland, there’s more that can linger off the U.S. east coast.

[Why some scientists are so worried about a cold ‘blob’ in the North Atlantic ocean]

The consequences of these changes may be affecting far more than cod and the people who fish for them.

For instance, a slowing of the AMOC was also recently associated by scientists with a sudden and dramatic 4 inch East Coast sea level rise event in 2009 and 2010. Slowing the circulation is expected to cause U.S. sea level rise because it weakens the contrast between warm waters to the right (or European side) of the Gulf Stream and cooler waters on its left (or American side). Warm water is less dense than cold water. It thus takes up more space.

Scientists like Mann have also linked warm ocean temperatures off New England to the dramatic snowfalls that Boston experienced earlier this year — noting that warmer water means there is more moisture in the atmosphere above it. And this moisture, if swept up in a storm, can produce more precipitation.

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In sum, it’s all part of a bigger picture, Mann says:

That warmth is implicated, in this latest study, for the dramatic decrease in Gulf of Maine cod populations, and it is likely also responsible for the northward retreat of cold water-loving sea life including the iconic Maine Lobsters. These unusually warm seas also contributed to the nor’Easters last winter that generated record snowfalls in New England. Those storms feed off warm seas both for their intensification, and for the amount of moisture that is available to produce snowfalls.

And research to understand the other consequences of such stark ocean warming in the Gulf of Maine and off of the coast of New England has only begun.

“We’re seeing an ecosystem going through a really massive change, and I really want my colleagues to look at this. We need to understand what it means,” says Pershing.

Read more in Energy & Environment:

Large Arctic and tar sands losses drag down Shell’s earnings

Follow @chriscmooney
Climate change is doing some very strange things to the waters off New England
By Chris Mooney October 29, 2015


Now I don't have a reason to visit his blog [well, Washington Post article actually) and give him the benefit of a page view.
Quoting 183. Patrap:


AMOC slowdown: Connecting the dots
Filed under: Climate Science Oceans — stefan @ 19 May 2016





This is amazing... they'll be catching lobster that is already cooked at this rate!
Quoting 139. JNFlori30A:



Just had a FB 'friend' post a nice video about The 12 Biggest Science Lies we have been told.. #9 was "CO2 is going to destroy the planet".. their explanation is "CO2 is food for plants! Rising C02 actually 'greens' the planet and accelerates reforestation, plant growth and food crop production."


What's worse is the excited positive reaction that so many people are expressing for it.. ugh





Yup. Lot's of plant life on Venus for this very reason.

I mean, just look at how green and rich the vegetation is on that planet!

It will only accelerate reforestation when humans stop deforestation. I see the problem as two fold, not only do we keep producing CO2 at an accelerated rate but we are also seeing deforestation on a grand scale in some countries.
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Quoting 193. CybrTeddy:



Yup. Lot's of plant life on Venus for this very reason.

I mean, just look at how green and rich the vegetation is on that planet!




To be fair, a lot more went wrong on Venus besides high CO2 lol

Besides it has "greened" the earth BBC Article
Quoting 118. bwi:



If you have a strong stomach, wade back through the comment section of the Post article. It's instructive if a bit nauseating. Somehow we have developed a whole lot of people who have completely lost connection with facts and believe that that if they believe something, it must be true. Sort of pre-enlightenment, actually.

I realize some are trolls just saying nonsense to be disruptive, but I'd wager that lots of those commenters actually believe what they are saying. That the earth hasn't warmed or that the seas haven't risen or ice measures haven't decreased -- actual observable, measurable stuff they they'd deny on its face. Sort of like the Monty Python skit with the dead parrot.

Guys, the parrot is dead. It's not just resting. It's not a conspiracy. We all need to do a better job explaining basic facts to people I suppose. These guys aren't science deniers as much as fact deniers. They're going to put roadblocks on adaptation, let alone prevention, unless we can somehow persuade them to accept facts about fundamental, measurable stuff like temperature readings!


Oh don't fret. It's not like these people can affect our great republic. After all, our system guarantees that only the best and brightest ever get elected. Just look at our current choices.

BTW, that's industrial strength sarcasm in case anyone missed it. We're witnessing the tragedy of the commons.
199. bwi
Quoting 159. cRRKampen:


Is this meant to be funny? Winter, and March in those regions was very mild. April was a bit cold in the Hudson Bay.


No not an attempt to be funny. Spring has come very late to the Hudson bay and N Quebec areas, with negative temp anomalies and lots of snow until very recently
Quoting 193. CybrTeddy:



Yup. Lot's of plant life on Venus for this very reason.

I mean, just look at how green and rich the vegetation is on that planet!




It's very green there. It starts off yellow. Then as you begin to suffocate and melt/burn I'd imagine you see green at some point. For a few seconds. Before your eyes boil out of your skull and you are summarily crushed by the burning acidic CO2 ladened atmosphere that keeps the planet at a balmy 800F, even on the tidally locked night side of the planet.

But wait, CO2 isn't a greenhouse gas so how is the tidally locked night side staying so hot? It's magic. Or a liberal conspiracy. Or something. As long as it isn't fact based you can choose whatever explanation you want.
Quoting 200. Xyrus2000:



It's very green there. It starts off yellow. Then as you begin to suffocate and melt/burn I'd imagine you see green at some point. For a few seconds. Before your eyes boil out of your skull and you are summarily crushed by the burning acidic CO2 ladened atmosphere that keeps the planet at a balmy 800F, even on the tidally locked night side of the planet.

But wait, CO2 isn't a greenhouse gas so how is the tidally locked night side staying so hot? It's magic. Or a liberal conspiracy. Or something. As long as it isn't fact based you can choose whatever explanation you want.


Earth's atmospheric CO2 Percentage: 0.039%
Venus's atmospheric CO2 percentage: 96.5%

So comparable!
Quoting 200. Xyrus2000:



It's very green there. It starts off yellow. Then as you begin to suffocate and melt/burn I'd imagine you see green at some point. For a few seconds. Before your eyes boil out of your skull and you are summarily crushed by the burning acidic CO2 ladened atmosphere that keeps the planet at a balmy 800F, even on the tidally locked night side of the planet.

But wait, CO2 isn't a greenhouse gas so how is the tidally locked night side staying so hot? It's magic. Or a liberal conspiracy. Or something. As long as it isn't fact based you can choose whatever explanation you want.
Hey! Keep your science to yourself! :)
Quoting 195. Patrap:




I hope this one holds together so we can get some rain along the coast in NW Florida. The past couple of lows that have gone past us split up into 2 pieces of energy with one going North and one South of us. We haven't had rain in 2-3 weeks now.
Quoting 199. bwi:



No not an attempt to be funny. Spring has come very late to the Hudson bay and N Quebec areas, with negative temp anomalies and lots of snow until very recently

A remnant effect from the SSW event this past winter...I think...maybe...:)
Quoting 203. 69Viking:



I hope this one holds together so we can get some rain along the coast in NW Florida. The past couple of lows that have gone past us split up into 2 pieces of energy with one going North and one South of us. We haven't had rain in 2-3 weeks now.
Yeah, watching a couple of nice towers heading along the I10 this afternoon.. Hopefully tomorrow we'll catch a cell or two.. though it'll feel even more like a sauna after the rain moves out!

Our Oleanders are very happy with this Spring's weather.. never seen them bloom like this before.

Quoting 206. JNFlori30A:

Yeah, watching a couple of nice towers heading along the I10 this afternoon.. Hopefully tomorrow we'll catch a cell or two.. though it'll feel even more like a sauna after the rain moves out!

Our Oleanders are very happy with this Spring's weather.. never seen them bloom like this before.


This time of year all the way through September it seems areas along I-10 get all the rain they need while we along the coast get hit and miss storms sometimes going weeks without rain. If we don't get a good rain tomorrow I'll have to turn my sprinklers on for the first time this Spring, up until the past couple of weeks we've been getting pretty good rain. As you know the problem here is things dry up pretty quick when temps are hot and it doesn't rain for a couple of weeks.
The warming of the Globe continues unabated,as we emit CO2 into the Atmosphere 24/7/365 from fossil fuels.

Oh let the sun beat down upon my face, stars to fill my dream
I am a traveler of both time and space, to be where I have been
To sit with elders of the gentle race, this world has seldom seen
They talk of days for which they sit and wait and all will be revealed
Talk and song from tongues of lilting grace, whose sounds caress my ear
But not a word I heard could I relate, the story was quite clear
Oh, oh.
Oh, I been flying... mama, there ain't no denyin'
I've been flying, ain't no denyin', no denyin'
All I see turns to brown, as the sun burns the ground
And my eyes fill with sand, as I scan this wasted land
Trying to find, trying to find where I've been.



"Sure as the dust, luft's high in June, when moving thru Kashmir'





Quoting 201. VAbeachhurricanes:
Earth's atmospheric CO2 Percentage: 0.039%
Venus's atmospheric CO2 percentage: 96.5%

So comparable!
Yep. Not the best response to the plant food argument. But it sounded good.

Edit: Venus is so radically different from earth that bringing it into the discussion is basically a red herring.
FIRE REACHES PROVINCIAL BORDER: The Fort McMurray fire has now burned about 5050 square kilometers / 1950 square miles and has reached into neighboring province, Saskatchewan. Fort McMurray is about 84 kilometers / 52 miles from the nearest point on the Saskatchewan border.
It was 10 years ago this Month An Inconvenient Truth was released.

We are slow to recognize where we are now, but the forcing's and Weather Globally, are showing just how fast we are warming.

Faster than ANY time in the past geological record.



Quoting 124. weathermanwannabe:

On the issue of awareness/ignorance as to climate change issues can you blame the ignorant when the government and private industry in the US sends the opposite signal to the masses. Using the automotive industry as one major example. In an enlightened climate [pun intended], and either by government regulation or voluntary action and promotion, most/all US automakers should be transitioning aggressively towards all electric/hybrid models, using scales of economy to lower prices, and phase out gas guzzling-high Co2 emmision engines for higher MPGs. Tesla is heading in that direction but their cars are too expensive for most folks but it proves that it can be done with great looking cars/lines that look sporty but are energy efficient. Instead, many US automakers are pushing, and selling, low MPG muscle cars like there is no tomorrow and oil is still an infinite resource..............There is a huge disconnect between the reality (the science) and the perception (private industry).


Average new car price zips 2.6% to $33,560

Tesla has received almost 400,000 preorders for the Model 3
Tesla's Model 3 is set for release in 2017, priced starting at $35,000

Tesla is moving in the right direction - if they can deliver.
nice glob of moisture about ready to move into a drought stricken venezuela. 50w
tesla they better. uncle sams seems all in. the owners of the smart car dont look so smart with gas prices around $2.20
For ALL of the wu folks along the MESO path thru morning,

be advised,

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
403 PM CDT Thursday may 19 2016

Short term...uneventful day across the region as the area remained
rain free with plenty of sun. The front that was draped along the
coast earlier appears it has meandered north deeper into the County Warning Area.
Other than that seabreeze conditions have taken over along coastal
MS and the Northshore causing to cu field to push about 5-10 miles
north of the coast.

Biggest issue in the forecast is the first 24-36 hrs(might actually
be in the net 6-12 hrs). Convective complex just now moving off the
mid and Upper Texas coast is the main culprit. As has been the case for
the last few systems, this is moving faster than expected. Cold
pooling has taken over but the best low level convergence continues
to run ahead of the mesoscale convective system which will likely continue along the la
coast but weaken some early this evening. That said the low level
jet looks to strengthen late this evening and overnight which will
give this complex another jolt as it pushes into and through sela
and into coastal MS during the early and into mid morning hrs. Pwats
will be approaching 2" and with divergence aloft this complex could
be quite healthy overnight. Very efficient rainfall is expected. At
the same time mid level winds could approach 50 kts helping to give
this complex another shot in The Arm which could lead to some bowing
segments with strong to severe winds possible. Rain should impact
much of the area overnight with light showers likely pushing in to
western portions of the County Warning Area before 00z. Speaking of time frame, the
complex could move into southwestern portions of the County Warning Area before 3z
and around the no Metro around 6z and into coastal MS before 9z. In
fact most of the rain could be out of the County Warning Area before 12z however,
the rain will not be necessarily done yet.




Tomorrow once our overnight complex moves through we may have enough
time to recover across the region and as the cold front moves in
along with the main trough axis additional storms could develop.
Rain could linger into the late afternoon hours because of this but
the area should dry out overnight Friday once the front and trough
axis moves through. /Cab/

Long term...it still looks quiet in the extended portion of the
forecast but there are some disagreements with a few aspects of the
forecast between the GFS and European model (ecmwf). First is afternoon highs this
weekend where the GFS is suggesting lower 90s are not out of the
question. The medium range guidance is in agreement with ridging
taking place early next week but how strong is the question.

Have decided to go with a blend of the GFS and European model (ecmwf) for this
weekend. H925 temps of 21-23c and mostly sunny skies should lead to
mid to upper 80s. Luckily dewpoints will be on the way down so it
shouldn't be too intolerable outside. With the lower dewpoints
Sunday and Monday mornings should be somewhat pleasant for late
may with morning lows running about 5 degrees below normal.


Quoting 214. islander101010:

tesla they better. uncle sams seems all in.


Five companies appear on all three lists:

Company: (1) Federal Grants & Allocated Tax Credits; (2) Federal Loans, Loan Guarantees and Bailout Assistance; (3) State/Local Subsidies:

Boeing: (1) $457,159,536 (2) $64,423,416,582 (3) $13,410,448,992
Ford Motor: (1) $219,791,292 (2) $27,577,800,000 (3) $2,524,766,434
General Electric: (1) $836,524,548 (2) $28,488,325,835 (3) $528,605,073
General Motors: (1) $529,398,581 (2) $50,346,920,000 (3) $3,643,935,840
JPMorgan Chase: (1) $450,739,995 (2) $1,299,031,484,524 (3) $887,272,991
Tesla: (1) $0 (2) $465,000,000 (3) $2,406,805,253

No federal tax money subsidies for Tesla. Nevada, on the other hand, is on the hook for a bit. But hey, states' rights, you know. Uncle Sam is not all in for Tesla. The others on the list . . . .

You should be more concerned with the parent company of Florida, Power and Light:
NextEra Energy (1) $1,938,811,949 - yes that is almost $2 billion dollars in federal grants & tax credits. (2) $0 (3) $84,632,196

Check it out yourself: Subsidy Tracker at Good Jobs First

Edit: I forgot to include the $84,632,196 in state subsidies that NextEra Energy receives also.
So ready for hurricane season...

Been putting up with May Gray all Week and now a 20% chance of rain tomorrow and Saturday morning.
Quoting 220. washingtonian115:

So ready for hurricane season...



already started technically. May not have to wait too long for the "B" storm to pop up.
"...and it's headed my way..."
Quoting 221. PedleyCA:


Been putting up with May Gray all Week and now a 20% chance of rain tomorrow and Saturday morning.

They've got Truckee down for a 50% chance of snow tomorrow (Friday).
Quoting 223. aquak9:

"...and it's headed my way..."

Then there's nothing left for you to do but hunker down, or Ramble On.
Had to work late this evening and heading home; everyone have a safe weather evening.  Just noting before I go, that the complex that pushed off of Texas this afternoon has a little spin to it now.  Shear is too high for tropical development but just noting between the Florida Blob yesterday and this one today, that the Gulf is just waiting for the shear to drop come the start of the season................................ :)

Southern Mississippi Valley sector loop
Twas a good idea that the NOAA Hurricane Awareness Tour went West to East this year as they will most likely go wheels up soon from Mobile to Naples as the Tour closes at 5pm.



Quoting 220. washingtonian115:

So ready for hurricane season...

Me too. Ready to start tracking storms with everyone here again.
Quoting 227. Patrap:

Twas a good idea that the NOAA Hurricane Awareness Tour went West to East this year as they will most likely go wheels up soon from Mobile to Naples as the Tour closes at 5pm.






Enjoyed your picks from the fly-in and you wearing the WU shirt; they flew into Tallahassee two years ago with a C-130 and Miss Piggy and I had a blast spending the afternoon chatting up the crews.
Im declaring a GOM Screaming Meemie'

Someone wake Grothar, slowly..



Thanx wmw, its always good for the Public to engaged eye to eye with their assets. We had a great time too.

More from yesterday here,


NOAA Hurricane Awareness Tour

By: Portlight , 11:40 AM CDT on May 19, 2016


Quoting 201. VAbeachhurricanes:



Earth's atmospheric CO2 Percentage: 0.039%
Venus's atmospheric CO2 percentage: 96.5%

So comparable!
Indeed they are! The comparison allows us to see that a little CO2 is good, but too much is bad.
Quoting 113. Sfloridacat5:

We had a surprise thunderstorm at about 1-2 am here in Fort Myers. Most locations saw about 1-2" of rain.


It's been pretty wet for May here, 5.62 so far for the month, and many places in Central and south Florida, especially interior and east, have had a good bit more.
With all due respect to VA and bappit, you've missed my point. I'm fully aware of the extreme differences between Venus and Earth. No matter how much CO2 we pump into the atmosphere, we will never reach the insane levels Venus reached (it's entirely possible Venus was an Earth-like planet billions of years in the past, but the extreme atmospheric conditions and Venus' ever changing surface has long erased any evidence of this, whereas with Mars it's still evident).

The point I was trying to make is that CO2 is a greenhouse gas, which an excess amount results in warming. I could have made the exact same point with Mars, a planet with not enough CO2 (among other issues). Mars actually works better in some respects as it as a similar axial tilt, and rotates at a similar rate on its axis -- yet it's complete devoid of life, (mostly) devoid of water, and has at best a tenuous atmosphere. It's obvious Mars was an Earth-like planet in the past, with a vast ocean spanning across the northern hemisphere, but conditions changed over the course of billions of years.

I refer to it as the tale of three planets: one with too much CO2, one with not enough, and one with just the right conditions for plant life to be healthy. That balance though is delicate, and tipping the scale a little one way or the other will result in irrevocable damage. That was the point I was trying to draw. I deeply apologize for the confusion, and I agree that it could be taken as a red herring argument, as there are other issues with Mars and Venus -- such as atmospheric pressure and atmospheric composition -- that make it inhospitable for plant life.
540  
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LAT...LON 3054 9124 3043 9098 3042 9098 3042 9096  
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Time for rigging fo storm is ovah'

Turn er into the wind helm,..



If your East and Seast of Baton Rouge.

Move yer vehicles to cover now.


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
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739 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
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* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
ABBEVILLE...KAPLAN...LAKE ARTHUR...GUEYDAN...PECAN ISLAND...FORKED  
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LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND  
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.  
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN  
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.  
 
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO  
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 2958 9262 2985 9257 3010 9286 3015 9228  
2985 9194 2972 9215 2973 9215 2976 9213  
2975 9221 2969 9211 2962 9211 2963 9203  
2959 9197 2956 9201 2960 9200 2962 9204  
2960 9207 2959 9204 2958 9205 2953 9231  
TIME...MOT...LOC 0039Z 270DEG 42KT 3006 9272 2985 9250 2960 9252 2944  
9267  
 
HAIL...<.75IN  
WIND...60MPH  
 
 
 
13  
 
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TVS noted,

Tornado Warning for that TVS


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA  
755 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTHEASTERN VERMILION PARISH IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 830 PM CDT  
 
* AT 754 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR FORKED ISLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40  
MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
KAPLAN AND ESTHER AROUND 805 PM CDT.  
MEAUX AND HENRY AROUND 815 PM CDT.  
ABBEVILLE AND ERATH AROUND 820 PM CDT.  
DELCAMBRE AROUND 825 PM CDT.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A  
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
TORNADOES ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. DO NOT  
WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.  
 
THIS CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND  
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE  
TORNADO. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A BUILDING.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 2995 9245 3012 9209 3011 9209 3010 9208  
3008 9207 3007 9206 3003 9196 2999 9198  
2999 9199 2990 9198 2978 9237  
TIME...MOT...LOC 0054Z 246DEG 34KT 2990 9234  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...0.00IN  
 
 
 
13  
 
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as there are other issues with Mars and Venus -- such as atmospheric pressure and atmospheric composition -- that make it inhospitable for plant life.

And the Martians.
Quoting 242. aquak9:

as there are other issues with Mars and Venus -- such as atmospheric pressure and atmospheric composition -- that make it inhospitable for plant life.

And the Martians.


Quoting 235. CybrTeddy:
With all due respect to VA and bappit, you've missed my point. I'm fully aware of the extreme differences between Venus and Earth. No matter how much CO2 we pump into the atmosphere, we will never reach the insane levels Venus reached (it's entirely possible Venus was an Earth-like planet billions of years in the past, but the extreme atmospheric conditions and Venus' ever changing surface has long erased any evidence of this, whereas with Mars it's still evident).

The point I was trying to make is that CO2 is a greenhouse gas, which an excess amount results in warming. I could have made the exact same point with Mars, a planet with not enough CO2 (among other issues). Mars actually works better in some respects as it as a similar axial tilt, and rotates at a similar rate on its axis -- yet it's complete devoid of life, (mostly) devoid of water, and has at best a tenuous atmosphere. It's obvious Mars was an Earth-like planet in the past, with a vast ocean spanning across the northern hemisphere, but conditions changed over the course of billions of years.

I refer to it as the tale of three planets: one with too much CO2, one with not enough, and one with just the right conditions for plant life to be healthy. That balance though is delicate, and tipping the scale a little one way or the other will result in irrevocable damage. That was the point I was trying to draw. I deeply apologize for the confusion, and I agree that it could be taken as a red herring argument, as there are other issues with Mars and Venus -- such as atmospheric pressure and atmospheric composition -- that make it inhospitable for plant life.
Sorry, I didn't know you had posted on this. I was responding to a different post which talked of boiling eye balls. I really didn't see how that was applicable. I thought the thread originated with someone pointing out number nine on a list of climate hoaxes which cited the direct effects of added CO2 on plant growth which is part of the plant food argument made by denialists for many years.

Yes, indisputably the differences between earth, Mars and Venus are instructive. link1 and link2. David Archer makes comparisons among these planets in his Climate 101 class, at one point describing how each planet starts out at a different point on a thermodynamic diagram and then comparing them with respect to the effects of rock weathering. The thing about Venus is that it lost all of its water and has no weathering of rocks to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. He describes how the earth's tropopause has kept water from escaping from earth as it did on Venus. Since earth has water, it has a geological thermostat moderating the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. The setting of the thermostat can change depending on how much rock is exposed to weathering. Mars, meanwhile, is tectonically dead so no new rock is exposed that can absorb CO2.

All of that, though, has nothing to do with the plant food argument which is what I was talking about. If you want to know more about the plant food argument, you can read my blogs on the subject, mainly this one.
I have a galvanized Garbage Can upside down over my largest Tomato plant currently, with a cinder block on top for Luck.

Wees aint gonna go down w/o a fight'...

Quoting 42. Patrap:


New NASA Maps Show Just How Fast New Orleans Is Sinking
Published:
May 17 2016 12:00 AM ED


"New Orlean's is sinking Man and I don't wanna swim'..








The only objection I have to NO sinking is that the idiots that decided to live in a city below sea level somehow think it is up to the rest of us to pay for their ridiculous folly.

I know, let's build a city on top of a potentially active volcano! When it erupts we can all cry about how unfair it is and ask everyone to cry for us and then expect the government to make our volcano home liveable again. Morons.
twin tvs noted

Quoting 209. bappit:

Yep. Not the best response to the plant food argument. But it sounded good.

Edit: Venus is so radically different from earth that bringing it into the discussion is basically a red herring.


Wait. You have complained in the past about long detailed arguments in response to the ignorance/stupidity pushed by deniers on here. Now you're complaining about clearly tongue-in-cheek/sarcastic/humorous "counter arguments" as well?

No one is seriously trying to compare Venus and Earth.

No one is seriously trying to compare Venus and Earth.

Women are from Venus.
I complain about ineffective and counter-productive arguments, and this is one of them.
Quoting 250. aquak9:

No one is seriously trying to compare Venus and Earth.

Women are from Venus.



That's why ya'll are hot.
253. beell
:)
Roger dat',



WOUS64 KWNS 200108
WOU3

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 183
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
810 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 183 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

LAC001-005-007-033-045-047-051-055-057-063-071-075 -087-089-093-
095-099-101-109-113-121-200700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0183.160520T0110Z-160520T0700Z/

LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

ACADIA ASCENSION ASSUMPTION
EAST BATON ROUGE IBERIA IBERVILLE
JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LAFOURCHE
LIVINGSTON ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES
ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES ST. JAMES
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. MARTIN ST. MARY
TERREBONNE VERMILION WEST BATON ROUGE


GMZ435-455-530-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-572-200 700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0183.160520T0110Z-160520T0700Z/

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

VERMILION BAY

COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM

LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS

LAKE BORGNE

CHANDELEUR SOUND

BRETON SOUND

COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON LA TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
LA OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO STAKE ISLAND OUT 20
NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA FROM 20 TO 60 NM

ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...






255. Wyote
Quoting 186. weathermanwannabe:

Two of the current warmest spots based on the SST anomaly chart are a) the Gulf Stream piling up below the North Atlantic cold pool off of Greenland and b) the Gulf of Alaska..................Possibly related in the big scheme of things.....
climate indicator


and b) That, my friend, is the eastern Bering Sea.
I appreciate the level of study put into this site, but I feel there is something missing in the equation of global warming.
I am seeing a mass exodus out of India in the next 10 to 20 years and Greenland turning into a slush cone.
We will be suffocated.
Quoting 247. LouisPasteur:



We are all one country after all. Miami is sinking too. I also expect you to pay for that.
Quoting 211. Patrap:
It was 10 years ago this Month An Inconvenient Truth was released.

We are slow to recognize where we are now, but the forcing's and Weather Globally, are showing just how fast we are warming.

Faster than ANY time in the past geological record.

Quoting 256. FIVEPOINTO:

I appreciate the level of study put into this site, but I feel there is something missing in the equation of global warming.
I am seeing a mass exodus out of India in the next 10 to 20 years and Greenland turning into a slush cone.
We will be suffocated.


Considering that most Indians that graduate from high school have passed advanced calculus, this might not be such a bad thing. Especially when you consider how low the birthrate is in the U.S. and Europe.

Cheers
Qazulight
Quoting 259. Qazulight:



Considering that most Indians that graduate from high school have passed advanced calculus, this might not be such a bad thing. Especially when you consider how low the birthrate is in the U.S. and Europe.

Cheers
Qazulight


Reference please
Quoting 261. help4u:

Fake quotes, really?
Quoting 260. LouisPasteur:



Reference please


No link available, it came up with the Indians living at my apartment here in Sioux Falls when I explained that I was taking Pre Calculus on Khan academy and hoped to finish through multi variable calculus before I seriously considered going for a degree in math. I mentioned that a dream I had was that when I retired in 10 years or so, I might find a remote under developed village, preferably in a high mountainous place and build a Khan Academy lab.

I asked if there was place like that in India. They indicated that most of the schools had better math programs than that, but admitted the Kashmere region was not as well represented, but added my life expectancy there would be rather short. They also noted that Nepal might fit the description of a place I might want build a lab like I was dreaming of. The schools were not as advanced and the high mountains were cool.

As far as demographics, please see Gapminder. I cannot link with this IPad, but a Google search will take you there. The videos there are excellent. Hans Rosling has funny and entertaining Ted Talks.

If you go to John Maudlin's website and look under the Technology newsletter, I cannot remember the writers name at this time, you will see that he revisits the demographic problems that most of the world is either facing (Western Europe, U.S.) or enduring (Japan).

Cheers
Qazulight
We getting some very vivid lightening N to South to the West now.

 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
950 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
WEST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
SOUTHEASTERN POINTE COUPEE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
IBERVILLE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
SOUTHWESTERN EAST FELICIANA PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
ASCENSION PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 1045 PM CDT  
 
* AT 949 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE  
EXTENDING FROM ROSEDALE TO 7 MILES NORTH OF PIERRE PART...MOVING  
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO  
MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS...AND OUTBUILDINGS.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
BATON ROUGE...ZACHARY...BAKER...DENHAM SPRINGS...GONZALES...  
DONALDSONVILLE...PLAQUEMINE...PORT ALLEN...OAK HILLS PLACE...ST.  
GABRIEL...WALKER...ADDIS...BRUSLY...WHITE CASTLE...SORRENTO...FRENCH  
SETTLEMENT...SLAUGHTER...ROSEDALE...PORT VINCENT AND GROSSE TETE.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
BUILDING.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3066 9132 3065 9130 3067 9130 3080 9117  
3030 9070 3017 9074 3013 9082 3011 9091  
3006 9096 3008 9101 3007 9106 3008 9108  
3006 9109 3003 9122 3004 9123 3003 9125  
3044 9155  
TIME...MOT...LOC 0249Z 220DEG 31KT 3043 9146 3006 9118  
 
HAIL...0.75IN  
WIND...70MPH  
 
 
 
11  
 
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
957 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTHEASTERN ASSUMPTION PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
ST. JAMES PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
SOUTHEASTERN ASCENSION PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 1030 PM CDT  
 
* AT 956 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
WAS LOCATED OVER PAINCOURTVILLE...OR OVER NAPOLEONVILLE...MOVING  
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
DONALDSONVILLE AROUND 1005 PM CDT.  
CONVENT AROUND 1010 PM CDT.  
GRAMERCY...LUTCHER...WALLACE AND NORTH VACHERIE AROUND 1020 PM CDT.  
GARYVILLE AROUND 1025 PM CDT.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A  
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER  
AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3024 9075 3019 9072 3018 9070 3020 9067  
3021 9068 3023 9064 3021 9063 3010 9065  
3009 9067 3005 9066 3003 9069 3001 9068  
2989 9098 3004 9108  
TIME...MOT...LOC 0256Z 240DEG 50KT 2997 9103  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...<.75IN  
 
 
 
11  
 
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AFK for the event.




Quoting 263. Qazulight:



No link available, it came up with the Indians living at my apartment here in Sioux Falls when I explained that I was taking Pre Calculus on Khan academy and hoped to finish through multi variable calculus before I seriously considered going for a degree in math. I mentioned that a dream I had was that when I retired in 10 years or so, I might find a remote under developed village, preferably in a high mountainous place and build a Khan Academy lab.

I asked if there was place like that in India. They indicated that most of the schools had better math programs than that, but admitted the Kashmere region was not as well represented, but added my life expectancy there would be rather short. They also noted that Nepal might fit the description of a place I might want build a lab like I was dreaming of. The schools were not as advanced and the high mountains were cool.

As far as demographics, please see Gapminder. I cannot link with this IPad, but a Google search will take you there. The videos there are excellent. Hans Rosling has funny and entertaining Ted Talks.

If you go to John Maudlin's website and look under the Technology newsletter, I cannot remember the writers name at this time, you will see that he revisits the demographic problems that most of the world is either facing (Western Europe, U.S.) or enduring (Japan).

Cheers
Qazulight


Thanks for the supporting information.
A few differences can be noticed between CDAS anomaly maps (from TropcialTidbits) and NOAA/NESDIS anomaly maps for sea surface temperatures globally for May 19. I prepped up a quick animation to quickly visualize the two.

Quoting 242. aquak9:

as there are other issues with Mars and Venus -- such as atmospheric pressure and atmospheric composition -- that make it inhospitable for plant life.

And the Martians.

We have not found any evidence that Martians actually exist. We are, however, still looking.

Quoting 270. Hurricane1216:

A few differences can be noticed between CDAS anomaly maps (from TropcialTidbits) and NOAA/NESDIS anomaly maps for sea surface temperatures globally for May 19. I prepped up a quick animation to quickly visualize the two.




I'd be more inclined to trust NOAA since the raw SST output is most likely sourced from data buoys.
Went through a hell of a storm in Gonzales as I was leaving work. I'd estimate winds were near 60 mph and debris was blowing everywhere in the parking lot; wish I had my anemometer. Phoned in the subsequent power outages and the presumed wind reports to the Slidell offices shortly afterward.
Tropical Storm Conditions

 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
1101 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTHWESTERN ST. BERNARD PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
NORTHWESTERN PLAQUEMINES PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT  
 
* AT 1100 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BELLE CHASSE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
POYDRAS AND MERAUX AROUND 1105 PM CDT.  
VIOLET AROUND 1110 PM CDT.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A  
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER  
AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 2969 8999 2978 9007 2983 9007 2985 9003  
2990 9001 2990 8996 2987 8991 2993 8998  
3000 8989 2999 8986 3002 8984 2998 8981  
2998 8970 2995 8968 2992 8970 2989 8965  
2990 8963 3001 8961 3005 8954 2997 8947  
TIME...MOT...LOC 0400Z 233DEG 43KT 2984 8995  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...<.75IN  
 
 
 
11  
 
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This is a PDS no doubt
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
1101 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTHWESTERN ST. BERNARD PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
NORTHWESTERN PLAQUEMINES PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT  
 
* AT 1100 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BELLE CHASSE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
POYDRAS AND MERAUX AROUND 1105 PM CDT.  
VIOLET AROUND 1110 PM CDT.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A  
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER  
AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 2969 8999 2978 9007 2983 9007 2985 9003  
2990 9001 2990 8996 2987 8991 2993 8998  
3000 8989 2999 8986 3002 8984 2998 8981  
2998 8970 2995 8968 2992 8970 2989 8965  
2990 8963 3001 8961 3005 8954 2997 8947  
TIME...MOT...LOC 0400Z 233DEG 43KT 2984 8995  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...<.75IN  
 
 
 
11  
 
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sheeesh

282. IDTH
Quoting 270. Hurricane1216:

A few differences can be noticed between CDAS anomaly maps (from TropcialTidbits) and NOAA/NESDIS anomaly maps for sea surface temperatures globally for May 19. I prepped up a quick animation to quickly visualize the two.



Levi's has thrown me off when I look at the NOAA one. From the NOAA one it looks like a positive AMO, while Levi's looks like a negative AMO. I don't know which one is accurate in this sense. I'm almost positive that they're based off different timeline averages. Like everything else is the same on his graphic as the NOAA one, except for the MDR, which befuddles me.
Quoting 264. Patrap:

We getting some very vivid lightening N to South to the West now.



Pretty vicious swirl going on there! Wonder where we'd be if that was over the Gulf?

Quoting 265. Patrap:


"sure as the dust, luft's high in June,
when movin thru Kashmir'.....


One of the best songs ever written. The music is unbelievably complex and beautiful. Zep's best, imo.
Kori was right on with His estimates and what I experienced here wholesale..

Sheesh,man that was frigging July late June like,easily.
Quoting 275. Patrap:

Tropical Storm Conditions




Almost resembles a decaying tropical cyclone. There's probably a small surface low buried underneath all of that.
286. JRRP7
lol
Quoting 285. KoritheMan:



Almost resembles a decaying tropical cyclone. There's probably a small surface low buried underneath all of that.
Just imagine if this was hurricane season and it started further south
288. IDTH
Oh good lord, I just looked at the radar and that just looks awful in Louisiana.
Quoting 286. JRRP7:

lol

This thing is screwed up.
Best here it from me as its all over the FB here ,at 10:10 CDT there was a Thunder Cackle that we've never ever heard before. It was like a Saturn 5 ,Shuttle at 3 miles up ,with a pressure wave first. That cackle like skyepony and other feel and hear with a Delta Heavy or other.

My Son was on River raod 5 miles away and it shook the car . It was very different.

My FB from shortly after to another wu nola member,

jaye, at 10:10 Local we had a thundrcackle that literally I have never heard before. It sounded like a Saturn five or shuttl cackling 3 miles up and west. Im sure we were NOT the only ones to hear it.

Quoting 284. Patrap:

Kori was right on with His estimates and what I experienced here wholesale..

Sheesh,man that was frigging July late June like,easily.


It was the worst non-tropical cyclone-related winds I've experienced in at least 8 years.
Quoting 285. KoritheMan:



Almost resembles a decaying tropical cyclone. There's probably a small surface low buried underneath all of that.


St Bernard down to Belle Chase NAS nay have taken a nado,,

It was creepy. We got some good Ipod video for the morn
Quoting 291. KoritheMan:



It was the worst non-tropical cyclone-related winds I've experienced in at least 8 years.


Im gonna go with the intensity of the Line last may that knocked a few train cars off the huey P, but was most def the longest/roughest since Isaac here in 2012
Quoting 292. Patrap:



St Bernard down to Belle Chase NAS nay have taken a nado,,

It was creepy. We got some good Ipod video for the morn



As long as I see it on Facebook later, do whatever you want. :)
Looking at the longer loop it seemed to have some land friction and inner core strengthening near the coast at New Iberia and made a more Neast track than I was expecting . That may have happened looking closer too.
Quoting 273. KoritheMan:



I'd be more inclined to trust NOAA since the raw SST output is most likely sourced from data buoys.


Its a combination of satellite data with biases removed using buoy data. But NOAA does use a different time range to calculate the anomaly.

The monthly mean SST climatologies were then derived by averaging these satellite SSTs during the time period of 1985-1993. Observations from the years 1991 and 1992 were omitted due to the aerosol contamination from the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo.
Daily SST climatologies were derived from these 12 operational monthly mean climatologies to produce our operational SST anomaly products.
The formula for obtaining the anomaly is: SST_anomaly = SST - Daily_SST_climatology


A complete explanation can be found here.

Edit: You know, I think they meant 1985-1998 with the years 1991-1992 removed. Have to let them know they have a typo on the methods page.
Today is the 3-year anniversary since the Moore, Oklahoma EF5 tornado. Traveling along a very similar path to its 1999 predecessor, the twister was on the ground for 39 minutes and 13.85 miles, and reached a maximum width of 1.08 miles. It attained maximum winds of 201 mph at its peak, leveling several large, well-constructed homes. Initially, the EF5 rating was attributed to damage at Briarwood Elementary School; however, after further inspection, the school was downgraded to EF4 and 10 homes were upgraded to EF5. A total of 24 people died from tornado-related injury, while one died from indirect injuries; 212 people sustained non-fatal injuries. Monetary losses topped $2 billion (2013 USD).

Sheesh we got some back side inbound, boomers and vivid from the Nwest and west.


299. 882MB
I have not seen such a nice MCC in a while. Such a beautiful structure on radar. If it keeps going I think we might see an eye ;) No truly, this is some nasty weather, coming though these areas. Those mini supercells coming in from the Gulf should be watched closely. I'm surprised they have no Tornado Watches out.



Ted FunkTop

0330 68 4 SE BATON ROUGE EAST BATON ROUGE LA 3041 9108 LARGE TREE DOWN AND PERSONAL WEATHER STATION MEASURED 68 MPH WIND GUST IN SHENANDOAH AREA OF BATON ROUGE. (LIX)

Hey Kori - was that you?
There was a good pressure drop as the meso-low passed over Baton Rouge. Note the pressure readings between 10 and 11 p.m. CDT.
724  
WFUS54 KLIX 200514  
TORLIX  
MSC047-200545-  
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0079.160520T0514Z-160520T0545Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
1214 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
EASTERN HARRISON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...  
 
* UNTIL 1245 AM CDT  
 
* AT 1214 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER GULFPORT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
BILOXI AROUND 1230 AM CDT.  
ST. MARTIN...D'IBERVILLE...LATIMER AND GULF HILLS AROUND 1245 AM  
CDT.  
 
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE  
GULFPORT AIRPORT.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A  
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER  
AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3034 8901 3032 8912 3045 8922 3066 8895  
3057 8888 3043 8888 3042 8887 3043 8885  
3042 8884 3041 8884  
TIME...MOT...LOC 0514Z 237DEG 20KT 3042 8910  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...<.75IN  
 
 
 
11  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.


The Nexlab LA Page

The Nexlab MS Page

Main Text Page


290  
WUUS54 KLIX 200518  
SVRLIX  
MSC059-200615-  
/O.NEW.KLIX.SV.W.0119.160520T0518Z-160520T0615Z/  
 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
1218 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...  
 
* UNTIL 115 AM CDT  
 
* AT 1218 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE  
EXTENDING FROM NEAR SAUCIER TO 14 MILES SOUTH OF GULFPORT...MOVING  
EAST AT 50 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
BILOXI...OCEAN SPRINGS...MOSS POINT...ST. MARTIN...ESCATAWPA...GAUTIER...  
D'IBERVILLE...GULF HILLS...BIG POINT...HELENA...WADE...LATIMER...GULF  
PARK ESTATES...VANCLEAVE...HICKORY HILLS AND HURLEY.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
BUILDING.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3033 8840 3033 8843 3029 8848 3034 886
Quoting 297. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Today is the 3-year anniversary since the Moore, Oklahoma EF5 tornado. Traveling along a very similar path to its 1999 predecessor, the twister was on the ground for 39 minutes and 13.85 miles, and reached a maximum width of 1.08 miles. It attained maximum winds of 201 mph at its peak, leveling several large, well-constructed homes. Initially, the EF5 rating was attributed to damage at Briarwood Elementary School; however, after further inspection, the school was downgraded to EF4 and 10 homes were upgraded to EF5. A total of 24 people died from tornado-related injury, while one died from indirect injuries; 212 people sustained non-fatal injuries. Monetary losses topped $2 billion (2013 USD).




Shhh - we don't want to be reminded . . . . BTW, if we saw what is going down in LA, we all would be hiding in our safe spots - well except for those that like to get in their cars and drive after such things.
Interesting look at LA storm!


309. 882MB
Quoting 307. Patrap:

Orange Beach,Alabama live webcam


Wow, that looks intense, you can see the nonstop lightning off in the distance.
Quoting 307. Patrap:

Orange Beach,Alabama live webcam


Added that one to my list. Nice light show on that one. Looks Vicious....

BrettBuffingtonWBRZ @BrettBuffington 2h2 hours ago

Here's a look inside the home on Mayfair Hill Dr. Amazing this family is ok tonight. @WBRZ(Baton Rouge,La.}
Quoting 310. PedleyCA:



Added that one to my list. Nice light show on that one. Looks Vicious....


U should have been here for this Pedley, was a nail biter for a few moments here too
Quoting 251. bappit:

I complain about ineffective and counter-productive arguments, and this is one of them.


Yes, your subjective standards that apparently no one measure up to. I think we've established that your ideas of effective and productive are quite different from mine and a number of others, both here and on other blogs. Expected, since it's subjective. A difference of opinions. We can leave it at that.

But back to the original "complaint", no one was seriously comparing Earth to Venus (or Mars).

Quoting 308. swflurker:

Interesting look at LA storm!





She's a spinnin'. If that was over the gulf that might bear watching.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings


Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 1245 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 1245 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 1231 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 1231 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1218 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1214 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 1210 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1156 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 1151 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1143 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1120 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1118 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1111 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1101 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1057 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1049 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1035 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1032 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1022 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1012 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1001 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016


Severe Warnings Issued More Than Three Hours Ago

TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 957 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 950 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 945 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 911 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 903 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING RAPID CITY SD - KUNR 751 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 845 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 837 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 817 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

TORNADO WARNING     LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 755 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016
Ben Myers, NOLA.com | The Times-Picayune 1 hour ago
Tweet from Entergy: More than 60,000 without power as of 11 pm as severe front moves across south LA. Thanks for patience as our crews work.
FlagShare
Dosey Rosy and heading for cozy.

Nite'
Patrap,

you still up?
If so whats your take on best lighting alert system on the market?
FLL major carrier upgrading system and theyre looking for a top level performance system to protect ramp operations.
any thoughts?


dying el nino showing it teeth. expected spinners like this in Febr.
322. MahFL
We got dense fog here in Orange Park this am.
Quoting 308. swflurker:

Interesting look at LA storm!



HRRR model puts it in the gulf this evening.
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
EXTREME SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING FROM 305 AM UNTIL 800 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...WELL-DEVELOPED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK WHILE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA/EXTREME SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...THOUGH ISOLATED HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS IN THE LINE.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTH OF
CRESTVIEW FLORIDA TO 45 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MARIANNA FLORIDA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&
325. MahFL
Quoting 323. LargoFl:

HRRR model puts it in the gulf this evening.


Did you mean the Atlantic ? it's already in the Gulf.
Quoting 325. MahFL:



Did you mean the Atlantic ? it's already in the Gulf.
no the gulf,might be the coming front pushes it into the gulf..check the HRRR model run his morning
well models weaken the MCS but the SPC is saying wait for further updates thru this morning,its a dangerous storm, they are saying wind gusts of 70mph this morning and hail and possible tornado's
329. MahFL
Quoting 327. LargoFl:




I doubt it, they take 12 hours to traverse from LA to Jax, it's a long way.
yea it looks like the spinner leaves some thunderstorms in the gulf here the usually persistent seabreeze was held down past two days by these strong west winds. it did not get active to about 5pm. looks like a similar setup today
331. MahFL
Quoting 328. LargoFl:

well models weaken the MCS but the SPC is saying wait for further updates thru this morning,its a dangerous storm, they are saying wind gusts of 70mph this morning and hail and possible tornado's


The squall line looks petty strong still :


Nino 3 about to go negative.
severe thunderstorm watch issued thru 9am this morning..................................IN FLORIDA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 9 COUNTIES

IN THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA

FRANKLIN GADSDEN LEON
LIBERTY WAKULLA

IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA

BAY CALHOUN GULF
JACKSON
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
708 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016

FLC013-037-039-045-063-073-077-129-GAC087-253-201 145-
/O.CON.KTAE.SV.W.0126.000000T0000Z-160520T1145Z/
LIBERTY FL-FRANKLIN FL-WAKULLA FL-JACKSON FL-GADSDEN FL-GULF FL-
CALHOUN FL-LEON FL-DECATUR GA-SEMINOLE GA-
708 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 AM
EDT/645 AM CDT/ FOR LIBERTY...SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN...NORTHWESTERN
WAKULLA...EASTERN JACKSON...WESTERN GADSDEN...GULF...CALHOUN...
SOUTHWESTERN LEON...DECATUR AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES...

AT 707 AM EDT/607 AM CDT/...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DONALSONVILLE TO NEAR PORT
ST. JOE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CARRABELLE...BLOUNTSTOWN...PORT ST. JOE...APALACHICOLA...EASTPOINT...ST
GEORGE ISLAND...QUINCY...MARIANNA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...GREEN SBORO...STONEMILL
CREEK...ORANGE...FRANKLIN...MALONE...WEWAHITCHKA. ..SNEADS...GRETNA...
BRISTOL...GRAND RIDGE AND GREENWOOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 2966 8539 2997 8535 3003 8535 3031 8527
3099 8520 3098 8488 3062 8459 2971 8463
2955 8509
TIME...MOT...LOC 1107Z 313DEG 30KT 3089 8503 2975 8526

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

42-DVD
No change here another cloudless scorcher vegetation starting to die off

Quoting 332. HurricaneFan:


Nino 3 about to go negative.
Good morning everyone! As you can see from the radars, NW Florida finally got a good rain soaking! Storms arrived in my area around 3:20 CDT! So far I've recorded 1.5" at my house and it looks like we'll get some later this morning if the storms developing SW of us hold together and keep moving our way! TGIF!
Good Morning. Working West of Tallahassee this morning and just drove through the front headed West; a little bumpy, and had to slow way down to avoid hydroplaning on Hwy 90. However, considering the coffee, good tunes on the radio, and plenty of lightning and wind gusts, it was rather exhilarating......................
 
Southeast sector loop
Quoting 336. 19N81W:

No change here another cloudless scorcher vegetation starting to die off




91 again yesterday and no cloud. Three weeks into what is usually a wet month with only .30 of an inch in South Sound.
Dry conditions becoming very serious.
Quoting 313. Xyrus2000:



Yes, your subjective standards that apparently no one measure up to. I think we've established that your ideas of effective and productive are quite different from mine and a number of others, both here and on other blogs. Expected, since it's subjective. A difference of opinions. We can leave it at that.

But back to the original "complaint", no one was seriously comparing Earth to Venus (or Mars).




You were just non seriously comparing them. My point is that saying the the CO2 rise hasn't been beneficial to plants because "look at Venus" is completely disingenuous.
That line of storms SW of Pensacola is really getting its act together, looks like they'll need to put out some more Severe Thunderstorm watches and warnings for our area as the whole complex is moving NE.
Here is the forecast for Conus today and current look; considering we are heading towards the peak of the severe weather season, it has been relatively quiet on the tornado front recently (with the peak still to come in June):




Driving through a severe t-storm in a car on the highway is about as close as I will ever get to a simulation of flying in a hunter plane through a hurricane.............And It was too dark and foggy this morning to flip on my black aviator shades.
folks notice..a Second line of severe storms forming Behind the first storm.................
Quoting 344. LargoFl:

folks notice..a Second line of severe storms forming Behind the first storm.................
Current WU forecast for our area (Tampa Bay) doesn't call for storminess/rain. I wonder if that will change looking at the trajectory of these storms. If not them, their outflows may stir something up for us. It's moisture soup outside...
jb updated his 2016 hurricane predictions. not good news for us conus dwellers
Quoting 341. 69Viking:

That line of storms SW of Pensacola is really getting its act together, looks like they'll need to put out some more Severe Thunderstorm watches and warnings for our area as the whole complex is moving NE.
Quoting 345. SouthTampa:

Current WU forecast for our area (Tampa Bay) doesn't call for storminess/rain. I wonder if that will change looking at the trajectory of these storms. If not them, their outflows may stir something up for us. It's moisture soup outside...


Right now, it looks as if just a bunch of rain for folks in FL/GA as the system appears to be weakening. We'll see how it plays out n the afternoon.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0659
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0627 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...SW GA AND FAR SE AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 185...

VALID 201127Z - 201300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 185
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT ACROSS NRN FL AND SW GA IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME MARGINAL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
. FOR THIS
REASON...NO NEW WW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE-SCALE BOWING LINE
SEGMENT EXTENDING FROM ECNTRL AL SWD INTO THE NRN FL AND OFFSHORE
INTO THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LINE OF STORMS IS LOCATED ALONG A
GRADIENT OF INSTABILITY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 F. THE EARLIER 60 TO 70 KT REAR INFLOW JET THAT WAS
PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR ORGANIZATION WITH THE LINEAR MCS APPEARS TO BE
WEAKENING. AS THE LINE MOVES EWD INTO WEAK INSTABILITY CURRENTLY IN
PLACE ACROSS SW GA AND NRN FL...THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME MARGINAL
. ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 05/20/2016
Quoting 308. swflurker:

Interesting look at LA storm!



We had that squall line wake us up at 4am.. yawn.. quite the light show.. gust reported in our county at 60mph but we did not get anything close to that at our place.. another set of storms to hit in an hour or so.. Happy Friday from NW FL!
Quoting 346. islander101010:

jb updated his 2016 hurricane predictions. not good news for us conus dwellers


JB essentially agrees with my prediction: 13-9-4. I am on the low side for total number of storms. Hoping that the majors are not the ones impacting the US, if his predictions about where they go pan out.
Quoting 343. weathermanwannabe:

Driving through a severe t-storm in a car on the highway is about as close as I will ever get to a simulation of flying in a hunter plane through a hurricane.............And It was too dark and foggy this morning to flip on my black aviator shades.
Just remember.. there are an awful lot of less-than-smart folks who speed up during a storm to get to their destination quicker. You may be slowing to prevent hydroplaning but the clown on the otherside of the road may not be!
Quoting 350. JNFlori30A:

Just remember.. there are an awful lot of less-than-smart folks who speed up during a storm to get to their destination quicker. You may be slowing to prevent hydroplaning but the clown on the otherside of the road may not be!


And many people forget to turn off their cruise control when driving through rain; a very dangerous thing to do because the wheels can spin up to a higher speed when hydroplaning then spin the car out of control when they touch down again. Always turn off the cruise when you hit rain and accelerate and decelerate the car manually.
Quoting 343. weathermanwannabe:

Driving through a severe t-storm in a car on the highway is about as close as I will ever get to a simulation of flying in a hunter plane through a hurricane.............And It was too dark and foggy this morning to flip on my black aviator shades.


You should have done it anyways, looking cool is so much more important than being safe
All I can say, and no I am not an expert, but just think 'critically' for a moment. My bet is yes climate change is real, you do not need all the high tech records to prove this and yes we are in a warming cycle, clearly. If you would take a trip through historical records across the globe and accounts in journals you would see this like night and day. Some people panic and say the sky is falling, just another reason in the end to pay attention to forecasts. You take situations like Sandy, the duel Texas floods being about a year ago and the past one with all the other increases in severe events it is more a lack of education on how to handle these that is the cause for alarm. The climate is more like a breath, warm then cold over time. Take Joaquin for example if it had hit Florida instead of the Bahamas with that short notice with the intensity irruption, well tell me what would have happened? Modern forecasting reminds me of an ancient riddle. In the past we were crawling on all fours in fear. One day we stood up and got messages out within enough time to save lives. Unfortunately now, as seen no matter how we improve while on three legs the message will never get passed down because the public does not have a magic cane of meteorology and my bet is, death tolls will unfortunately rise because of lack of understanding. I have seen this many times in places I have been with these events (nothing like a major hurricane) where it starts then I get asked what to do, the price was watching panic attacks but you get the point. -face palm-
Quoting 345. SouthTampa:

Current WU forecast for our area (Tampa Bay) doesn't call for storminess/rain. I wonder if that will change looking at the trajectory of these storms. If not them, their outflows may stir something up for us. It's moisture soup outside...
in looking at baynews 9 radar pic..its just coming into view for Pinellas county..it sure looks like we are going to get some of this..its fooling the mets so far I think...cant trust these MCS kind of storms.
Old-Rubys Restaurant on the end of Seal Beach Pier is on fire. 2nd Alarm, 3 Fireboats on scene.
Edit: Port of Long Beach Fireboat just showed up, this one has dual streams.

Fire boats respond to a fire on the Seal Beach pier on May 20, 2016. (Credit: KTLA)
The current El Nino is breaking up pretty quickly in the Pacific giving us a 50/50 shot (at least) of possible La Nina conditions by August and September. Shear is still very high in the tropical Atlantic, as it should be in May, but we could see some really favorable sheer pockets in the Gulf and Western Caribbean by July-August not to mention the Central Atlantic MDR by August and September at this rate:



BigDukeNOLA 7 back on line post storm rest.


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la
527 am CDT Friday may 20 2016

Synopsis...

Very well defined mesoscale convective vortex (mcv) on radar and
satellite moved quickly east-northeast across northern portions
of the forecast area last evening to shortly after midnight, and
this feature was now moving into southwest Alabama. There were at
least 14 reports of severe weather that occurred with the quasi-
linear convective system (qlcs) as it raced through the forecast
area. Water vapor imagery shows the main mid/upper level
shortwave trough extending from a low over Kansas into
central/eastern Texas. The upper level winds/flow are extremely
divergent from east of the shortwave trough to surrounding the
MCV, and that typically is a pattern where the mesoscale features
and thunderstorms move quite a bit faster than the models can
depict a day or even less in advance. At the surface, low pressure
over southern Mississippi has a trough extending to it's south,
however, the slow moving weak cold front appeared to extend
southwest from the low into southwest Louisiana with the drier air
still lagging well behind the front.

Short term (today through Sunday night)...

The upper level divergence in advance of the shortwave trough over
the Southern Plains will continue to support the development of
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the coastal waters off
the Louisiana coast, and these should continue to generally weaken
as they try to move inland into more stable air early this morning.
As the day progresses, the shortwave trough will continue to move
east towards the lower Mississippi Valley. Daytime heating should
lead to more scattered inland development of showers and
thunderstorms by mid to late morning, then activity should
continue into the early to mid afternoon hours before drier air
decreases coverage from the northwest and west during the mid to
late afternoon. One or two strong thunderstorms can't be ruled
out, however severe thunderstorms are no longer expected. Some
localized banding and temporary training of showers and
thunderstorms could occur, but the threat of any additional
flooding appears minimal at this time.

The shortwave trough is expected to amplify over the eastern
states and east of the forecast area tonight into the weekend.
This will help push a weak cold front through the forecast area
this evening with a slight reinforcement Saturday night as surface
high pressure builds south across the mid Mississippi Valley to
Gulf Coast region. Saturday and Saturday night are expected to be
dry and less humid with cooler lows expected Saturday night.
Daytime highs will be near to slightly above normal however with
the strong late may sun with Saturday likely the warmest day. The
only complication is weak disturbances that will traverse over a
flat mid/upper level ridge that will be building over the Southern
Plains to just west of the lower Mississippi Valley. The European model (ecmwf)
model is a more aggressive forecasting some quantitative precipitation forecast over portions of
the coastal waters and just west of the forecast area on Saturday
and Sunday. Have followed a blend of the wetter European model (ecmwf) and other
drier models at this time.

Long term (monday through Thursday night)...

A series of shortwave troughs will keep a mean trough over the
western U.S. Coast area early in the week which should progress
slowly east across the southwest states Wednesday and Thursday.
The downstream shortwave trough is expected to move from eastern
portions of the Southern Plains across the lower Mississippi
Valley as the week progresses, and surface high pressure will also
move east early in the week allowing southerly surface winds to
return.

The European model (ecmwf) is more bullish with "ridge riders", or weak shortwave
troughs that move through the southern belt of westerlies across
the lower Mississippi Valley, therefore the European model (ecmwf) has more quantitative precipitation forecast
than the GFS, starting in western areas Monday and Tuesday, and
across most areas Wednesday into Thursday. Have gone with a model
blend at this time. 22/dew point

Quoting 356. daddyjames:

Fort McMurray Fire Update (no nice animation today]. Perimeter and hot spots from the last 24 hours indicated. Courtesy of GeoGratis.



The Good, the Bad (well not necessarily bad, just a reality), and the Ugly:

The Good
Weather shift aids fight to keep Fort McMurray fire at bay near oil sands
Fort McMurray fire damage not 'act of God': Insurance Bureau of Canada
Fort McMurray evacuees to receive 'welcome packages' as they return home

The Bad/Reality
Hungry bears a problem in Fort McMurray: 'They're not eating people, they're after the rotten pizza in your freezer'
Wildfire contaminants could sully Fort McMurray water supply. River water will be difficult to treat in the coming weeks and months

The Ugly
Multiple scams arise after Fort McMurray wildfires: 'These people have been through so much and then to have them scammed... is shameful and it is disgusting'



Multiple scams arise after Fort McMurray wildfires: 'These people have been through so much and then to have them scammed... is shameful and it is disgusting

It is unfortunate that this happens but the scams that took place after Hurricane Andrew led to much needed change
Quoting 354. LargoFl:

in looking at baynews 9 radar pic..its just coming into view for Pinellas county..it sure looks like we are going to get some of this..its fooling the mets so far I think...cant trust these MCS kind of storms.
We shall see. I would bet it makes it here. Doesn't look to be falling apart as rapidly as they expect it to.
One more thing, note how forecasts have been going downhill in the past year, especially beginning this past winter, energy overload? If you use old math on changing factors that these models have not seen (warmth is increased energy) picture it like trying to solve for 4+x=8 but now suddenly the math problem is 7+y=23(x)-4 and the models have a vague understanding of y. This takes me back to a few events actually. Jan-Mar 2015 especially.
My Bud and I were planning a wade fishing trip down to our go to spot near Apalachicola on the Gulf on Sunday morning with a beautiful clear and sunny day forecast after this front pushes through. The weather will not be an issue but all this rain is going to flush out the river and make the coastal waters a bit muddy; I don't go in above the knees on muddy days (and just cast a bit further) because I like to see occasional the Bull Shark coming before he gets too close. On clear water days, we can see them coming onto the edge of the flat and we move back up a bit on the sand bar (from waist deep waters) until they cruise on through. Been going to the same spot for over 10 years and never had a problem by the way (we keep the floating fish basket closer to shore behind us in a bout 1 foot of water away from the sharks)..............Never tie your fish or bait close to you if you wade fish.........................................
Quoting 366. Patrap:


No pocket for the western panhandle today. We be in it...
Quoting 311. Patrap:


BrettBuffingtonWBRZ @BrettBuffington 2h2 hours ago

Here's a look inside the home on Mayfair Hill Dr. Amazing this family is ok tonight. @WBRZ(Baton Rouge,La.}

HRRR really develops a lot of thunderstorms across east central and S.E. Florida later today. This has been the pattern lately.

373. elioe
If someone ever tries to compare Earth to Venus' surface in an attempt to portray the latter as worst-case AGW situation, it's worth pointing out two things:

- The temperature in the atmosphere of Venus, at 1 bar pressure level, is 70 - 80 C ;
- If the atmosphere between 1 bar level and surface would follow moist adiabatic lapse rate rather than dry, the surface temperature would drop from 460 C to approximately 190 C.

So, essentially, the factors combining to produce that hostile temperature in order of importance are:

1) lack of sufficient amounts of water vapor ;
2) huge pressure ;
3) concentration of CO2.
Several wind reports this morning (one 61 mph gust) in North Florida out ahead of the frontal line..........Some pretty strong outflow ahead of the line that went through earlier:

last3hours Filtered Reports Graphic

Pretty cool image of the aftermath of a lightning strike in Texas (from the TWC).
It happened overnight, so no one was in any danger.

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Those of us who knew this was going to be a "different" event than the past 3-4 here..was when the NWS 4 pm wording became concerned with the radar presentation and other factors.

It was very late June early July like for the experience.

That TVS was very close to us round 10:40pm


Quoting 373. elioe:

If someone ever tries to compare Earth to Venus' surface in an attempt to portray the latter as worst-case AGW situation, it's worth pointing out two things:

- The temperature in the atmosphere of Venus, at 1 bar pressure level, is 70 - 80 C ;
- If the atmosphere between 1 bar level and surface would follow moist adiabatic lapse rate rather than dry, the surface temperature would drop from 460 C to approximately 190 C.

So, essentially, the factors combining to produce that hostile temperature in order of importance are:

1) lack of sufficient amounts of water vapor ;
2) huge pressure ;
3) concentration of CO2.
One more, Venus is a lot closer to the sun.