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Tornadoes Kill Two in Oklahoma; Severe Weather Outbreak in Ohio Valley on Tuesday

By: Jeff Masters 3:10 PM GMT on May 10, 2016

A significant tornado outbreak hit the Plains on Monday night, killing two people in Oklahoma and causing significant damage in several towns, including Wynnewood, Oklahoma. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logged 22 preliminary reports of tornadoes, with touchdowns occurring in Oklahoma, Kansas, Iowa, Arkansas, Illinois, and Nebraska. There were more than 90 reports of large hail at least 1" in diameter, with softball-sized hail 4.25" in diameter reported in Lincoln, Nebraska. Chester Barnes, 76, was killed in his rural Garvin County home when a violent tornado touched down south of Oklahoma City, according to KFOR.com. A second death occurred in Johnston County near Connerville, whom KXII.com identified as 76-year-old Jackie Brooks. The two deaths bring the 2016 tornado death toll in the U.S. to twelve, according to the Storm Prediction Center. Survey crews from the National Weather Service will go to the tornado-damaged areas on Tuesday to determine the EF ratings of the twisters. Some impressive YouTube videos of Monday's twisters can be seen from severestudios.com and from stormchasingvideo.com.


Figure 1. A tornado south of Wynnewood, OK taken from the west at 4:18 pm on May 9, 2016.  The tornado was dwarfed by the massive spinning updraft of its parent supercell which stood out in amazing clarity owing to its almost complete separation from the core of rain and large hail. The Oklahoma Highway Patrol closed I-35 near Wynnewood for 15 minutes when the tornado turned towards the freeway, the Associated Press said. Image credit: James LaDue.


Figure 2. A tornado rips through a residential area after touching down south of Wynnewood, Oklahoma on May 9, 2016. (JOSH EDELSON/AFP/Getty Images) 


Figure 3. Preliminary storm reports for Monday, May 9, 2016, from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

More severe weather coming on Tuesday
The storm system responsible for Monday's severe weather has moved eastwards, and Tuesday's greatest severe weather threat will be focused over the Ohio Valley in southern Indiana and northern Kentucky, where SPC has issued their "Enhanced" probability of severe weather. A very moist and unstable airmass is in place there, which should fuel a round of severe thunderstorms capable of causing widespread wind damage. Upper level winds are marginally favorable for allowing a few supercell thunderstorms with tornadoes to occur, as well.


Figure 4. Severe weather outlook for Tuesday, May 10, from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Jeff Masters

Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

   Thanks for the Update, Dr. Masters......

Capital Weather Gang ‏@capitalweather 5m5 minutes ago
Two weeks of rain: Streak of consecutive days with rain hits 14 in DC

This reminds me of 2008 all over again with the first half of May basically be down right dreary and a washout.Then the second half came and it was a scorcher with 90 degree weather and some agencies are calling for a abrupt end to our current pattern.I guess we'll see...
From the previous blog. I wish you all a great day, as I have to wander around today away from any computer/cell phone signal.

Quoting 211. daddyjames:
What will be, the last Fort McMurray update. Fire perimeter and hot spots from the last 24 hours.




The image speaks for itself. Fire no longer an immediate threat to the city or the oilfields. Burning mainly in wild land east of the city. Overall 90% of the city's buildings remain. Excellent work of the firefighters!

Story: Doorbell-cam captures gripping footage of Fort McMurray firefighters at work
You Tube Video HERE

Aa well as others: Heroic measures praised during the Fort McMurray hospital evacuation

The Good, the not-so-good, and the interesting:
The Good: Despite 'ocean of fire' that raged around Fort McMurray, about 90 per cent of structures saved

Not-so-good News: Viral stomach bug breaks out among Fort McMurray wildfire evacuees at Northlands reception centre

The Interesting (good) news: Good news: wildfires deemed to no threat to Fort McMurray radioactive waste site (Wonder if many of those that live there/recently moved there were aware of this?).
Quoting 216. bwi:

Dang



If the GFS is an indicator of anything on the horizon then next 400 hours or so could really help accelerate that plunge if this forecast verifies.

The GFS shows little in the way of changes in positive heat anomalies that currently range from 5 to 15 degrees Celsius above the normal. These anomalies are forecast to persist and if anythign expand and intensify as the month progresses.

72 hours


138 hours


186 hours Borrow is warm


228 hours Arctic Ocean still receiving open onslaught of above freezing temperatures. Several degrees at that


336 hours Greenland finally sees some relief with cool anomalies on the north end of the island.


384 hours Much of the Arctic Ocean will see positive temperature anomalies of 3 to 8 degrees Celsius above the norm for the next 16 days. And that is a very conservative number. Probably higher than that.

Thanks Dr.; based on the current relative position of the Conus jet, one can see the flow into Kentucky and those parts later today as the jet moves East-NE:

Southern Mississippi Valley sector loop




Quoting 233. Barefootontherocks:

Linking youtube vids might work best these days. If you do not use flash and/or have wiped it off your computer, you don't need flash to view vids at the youtube site.


Yes, I agree with you Barefoot - security concerns is why I block it.
The larger dryline view from SW OK near Hobart... May 9, 2016 1552 cdt


Closer up, a repost from previous blog... ( link added to the wu photo, so you can click to rate or comment if you want)


images credit: Barefootontherocks, as always, striving to admire storms from afar.
Quoting 7. daddyjames:



Yes, I agree with you Barefoot - security concerns is why I block it.
I removed it altogether. Hasn't bother me except on certain news stations where I can read the text of a story but not see vid. Worth the peace of mind to me.
Quoting 8. Barefootontherocks:

The larger dryline view from SW OK near Hobart...


Closer up, a repost from previous blog...


images credit: Barefootontherocks, as always, striving to admire storms from afar.


I am definitely with you there Barefoot! Although, yesterday I was not given much choice in the matter. Thankfully well north of me and mine, not wishing any ill-will on those that were affected.
Quoting 9. Barefootontherocks:

I removed it altogether. Hasn't bother me except on certain news stations where I can read the text of a story but not see vid. Worth the peace of mind to me.


Unfortunately, some standard software I use for analyses requires it - Java too. So, I have to keep it - and set things accordingly.
Quoting 10. daddyjames:



I am definitely with you there Barefoot! Although, yesterday I was not given much choice in the matter. Thankfully well north of me and mine, not wishing any ill-will on those that were affected.
Part of life in this gorgeous "middle" country. No choice where the storms go. Always a choice to be aware and have a plan to stay safe.

OK's just getting into May primetime, so keep safe and stay ready for primetime.
bf out
Quoting 12. Barefootontherocks:

Part of life in this gorgeous "middle" country. No choice where the storms go. Always a choice to be aware and have a plan to stay safe.

OK's just getting into May primetime, so keep safe and stay ready for primetime.
bf out


Thanks, and you as well.
From the previews blog entry:
Quoting 233. Barefootontherocks:

Linking youtube vids might work best these days. If you do not use flash and/or have wiped it off your computer, you don't need flash to view vids at the youtube site.
Flash is dying, and, in many cases, dead. I imagine WU will at some point in the near future disallow Flash-based video players. In the meantime, however, YouTube embedding works perfectly well here. So, using one of the tools listed makes it a breeze to convert the new YouTube embed code for use here. For instance, my own:

1) Under the video you want on YouTube, click 'Share', then 'Embed'. Copy the embed code shown;

2) Go to http://iwantsomeproof.com/youtubeoldembedcoderize r.asp;

3) Paste that code into the top box;

4) Click the red 'Coderize!' button;

5) Highlight and copy the code that appears in the bottom box;

6) Paste that code as-is into the WU comment box.

And that's it...
From previous blog


You're welcome :)
Quoting 14. Neapolitan:

From the previews blog entry:Flash is dying, and, in many cases, dead. I imagine WU will at some point in the near future disallow Flash-based video players. In the meantime, however, YouTube embedding works perfectly well here. So, using one of the tools listed makes it a breeze to convert the new YouTube embed code for use here. For instance, my own:

1) Under the video you want on YouTube, click 'Share', then 'Embed'. Copy the embed code shown;

2) Go to http://iwantsomeproof.com/youtubeoldembedcoderize r.asp;

3) Paste that code into the top box;

4) Click the red 'Coderize!' button;

5) Highlight and copy the code that appears in the bottom box;

6) Paste that code as-is into the WU comment box.

And that's it...
Thanks, Neo. I know that. I prefer clicking youtube links, and others possibly do also. With flash gone, I cannot see youtube embeds at wu (add: but I can view them at youtube site without flash). At wu, a message indicates missing player or something like that. (Add: Maybe they are not all youtubes. Don't know because I cannot see them>)

Hope all your family is safe from the once and future storms.
If the dry line reaches central Oklahoma during the late afternoon/early evening look out. If the other conditions are there (shear, high dewpoints, air temp, etc) then these powerful tornadoes start forming.

You can get tornadoes at any time of the day, but it's that 3 pm - 9pm time frame when conditions are most favorable.



Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 2 hHace 2 horas Lafayette, CA Ver traducción
SSTs in the far North and trop Atlantic have anomalously warmed over past month, while SSTs off E Coast have cooled.
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice
ECMWF Seasonal Model Atlantic Hurricane Forecast Update: Including Alex, now is predicting 13 Named Storms; 9 Hurricanes; 3 Major Hurricanes
Saved radar loop from yesterday. Scary
with conditions in the tropical atlantic getting better for cyclogenesis, i expect that the forecast from most of the agencies will see a ramp up in numbers towards the end of month when their June forecast will be out thereby suggesting an active season.
our dryline encompasses the entire western caribbean...
stay safe to those in the danger zone
May 10, 2010 Anniversary
55 tornadoes in OK within five hours or so. Please click image for the NWS Norman writeup on this event.


You will find additional tornado summaries for this date at NWS Tulsa.

Running off for sure now. 'Bye.
50 reported tornadoes from Saturday - Monday

Hurricane Preparation 2016

It's time to dust off that family disaster plan, or in many cases, create one.

Keeping your family safe during a hurricane starts with proper planning. One in six Americans live along the eastern seaboard or the Gulf of Mexico, making hurricane preparation a must for many and their families.






How to Prepare for a Hurricane



Evacuation Considerations for the Elderly, Disabled and Special Medical Care Issues



Your Evacuation Plan


Disaster Supplies Kit




Pet Care Disaster Preparedness

NOAA Alert Weather Radio's
Quoting 25. washingtonian115:



That would be scary if a hurricane was to go through there
they may get there but thats where they will die....that water could be boiling the conditions are just not stacking up to support a TC.
Quoting 28. FirstCoastMan:


That would be scary if a hurricane was to go through there
Quoting 28. FirstCoastMan:


That would be scary if a hurricane was to go through there


Waiting for that shear shut off switch, El-Nino going to be slower to wane than some models showed. If a La-Nina develops it may not be until late July, early August. Really hard to tell what will happen, more energy available than ever before, have a feeling (based on obvious science) that this Summer is going to be absolutely wild. Hurricane season at peak, could get very interesting.
Quoting 21. Patrap:




The current lows over the US (and Canada and Maritimes), and the jet flow, are working together for that conveyor belt of moisture flowing towards the NE over Conus; will make for an interesting afternoon due to shear and the related pressure gradients. Just noting that we are far away from the lows here in North Florida but there is still a gentle "breeze" across the tops of the trees here.

Those lows might be deepening a little bit this afternoon and evening.
That said, SST change worldwide is shocking. To see a rapid switch to a strong La-Nina by mid July is not out of the question. Heat across the central US may be a real concern. Not to mention a return to a very active peak hurricane season. Not long to wait now, we shall see.
The coverage that TWC brought yesterday of the tornadoes makes me miss TWC, I have Verizon and therefore I am no longer able to watch TWC since they got rid of it...

TWC may not be as good as they used to be but their severe weather/tornado outbreak coverage remains top notch.

Here are the ULLs over the US and Canadian maritimes at the moment:


And the vorticity at the surface; the low over-near the US/Canadian border moving North is quite well developed at all levels in the atmosphere from top to bottom:





Let me acknowledge this, this is not my own personal how I feel about Trump blog. Apologies. I'll let that man speak for himself. And that'll be the last I have to say on that. Your welcome Washi. And your right on it being detrimental to the blog. Common sense and human goodness will carry the day.
Quoting 37. DeepSeaRising:

Let me acknowledge this, this is not my own personal how I feel about Trump blog. Apologies. I'll let that man speak for himself. And that'll be the last I have to say on that. Your welcome Washi. And your right on it being detrimental to the blog. Common sense and human goodness will carry the day.


??? I must've missed something
This past Sunday I did my lawn work this morning early...

I still had my big floppy hat on along with a white long sleeve shirt.

About 10 minutes in the sun I noticed my arms were getting to much sun even through my shirt and my neck actually hurt from the suns rays at 10:30 am. It was partly cloudy with a sky filled with contrails. We have a problem with UV levels that is affecting all of us.
Quoting 38. Articuno:



??? I must've missed something


Indeed. Just frustrating to watch the world unravel in front of us. With truth and seen science being replace by lies and agenda STILL, it's very sad to see how the world suffers because of. Arctic is screaming, "Call on me teacher! call on me!".
Quoting 40. DeepSeaRising:



Indeed. Just frustrating to watch the world unravel in front of us. With truth and seen science being replace by lies and agenda STILL, it's very sad to see how the world suffers because of. Arctic is screaming, "Call on me teacher! call on me!".


Don't let it aggravate you, the cards will fall as they may. Governments and politicians are standing on the tracks and the freight train is barreling down it with no regards. They wont have much of a choice much longer, either get off the tracks or prepare to meet their demise.
From the last blog:

"201. BahaHurican
11:59 AM GMT on May 10, 2016
Quoting 199. trunkmonkey:
Can anyone tell my why this site crashes my computer every time I come to this site?
A script on this page may be busy, or it may have stopped responding. You can stop the script now, open the script in the debugger, or let the script continue.
Script: https://ajax.googleapis.com/aj%u2026ibs/jquery/1.7 .2/ jquery.min.js:3

U gotta nuke that script... will say more later, but gotta run right now! "

I used to get that message too, but not anymore, nowadays firefox just freezes (for about 1 minute) and after that is works all right.
Best way for me to get around that problem is to not log in, just lurk.

But now (just recently) I can't choose the way I read the comments; I prefer 'order posted' and 200 comments/page, but not being logged in I can't change the default options.
Would be glad if someone could help out, but not by using a different browser, I won't.
What's with that five-days average 250 millibar wind speed five-days GFS projection? Jet stream seems unusually weak, doesn'it? Must be related in some way to the last six months record heat in n' around the arctic circle (and current forecast of an arctic heat wave in the process). The reduced temp differential between pole and equator could explain it, in my opinion, but I'm waiting for other opinions, or a new longer term data analysis to appear on the subject to understand what's happening there.


*** Artic-sea-ice.net - the 2016 melting season - FORUM ***
Advertising ;-) Very interesting discussion, up-to-date, full of incredible news and pictures... and bad news too. A good read to make sure you're not dreaming, sometimes.

.45. Gearsts :
Storms of my Grandchildren? (J.Hansen's theory)
Anthony Sagliani ‏@anthonywx May 9
Anomalously strong Azores high building over next 2 weeks. Additional eastern Atlantic/MDR cooling likely.

Quoting 42. RitaEvac:



Don't let it aggravate you, the cards will fall as they may. Governments and politicians are standing on the tracks and the freight train is barreling down it with no regards. They wont have much of a choice much longer, either get off the tracks or prepare to meet their demise.
...or prepare to meet our demise! That train wreck is gonna take a lot of innocents with it.
45. Gearsts
2:35 PM EDT on May 10, 2016
I don't like the position of hat high..if it were August any wave coming off would keep a southern track.
Quoting 48. washingtonian115:

45. Gearsts
2:35 PM EDT on May 10, 2016
I don't like the position of hat high..if it were August any wave coming off would keep a southern track.
And trade winds will keep it in check not allowing development.
Starting to get a hook on that Mayfield storm...
Starting to get wind and hail reports coming in near the Kentucky - Indiana border area from the strong cells coming through; one cell looks very nasty:


Central Great Lakes sector looplast3hours Filtered Reports Graphic


Its been awhile since I have seen such a large swath of Texas get a Severe Thunderstorm warning all at once. From Mexico Border to the Oklahoma border. It is hot and muggy out there, near 90 with dewpoint of 70.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0160.htm l

"* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3
INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
"

Yup/ That could make a mess.
Quoting 39. frank727:

This past Sunday I did my lawn work this morning early...

I still had my big floppy hat on along with a white long sleeve shirt.

About 10 minutes in the sun I noticed my arms were getting to much sun even through my shirt and my neck actually hurt from the suns rays at 10:30 am. It was partly cloudy with a sky filled with contrails. We have a problem with UV levels that is affecting all of us.


Something IS different about the sun: I have well-watered garden/plants wilting by noon instead of 5p. The well-fed songbirds are scarce suddenly, not coming down out of the trees. The rate of evaporation *and* transpiration is somehow 2-3X faster than normal.
Quoting 53. redwagon:



Something IS different about the sun: I have well-watered garden/plants wilting by noon instead of 5p. The well-fed songbirds are scarce suddenly, not coming down out of the trees. The rate of evaporation *and* transpiration is somehow 2-3X faster than normal.


Seems ground dries up faster now too, can get good rains, and it just turns brick hard dry quickly in the summers. Basically have to have more than inch of rain every week just so things don't get out of control
Looks like a bad situation unfolding in Kentucky. Benton Kentucky looks to be in the direct path of a possible tornado. Look at that hook!



Quoting 55. VegasRain:

Looks like a bad situation unfolding in Kentucky. Benton Kentucky looks to be in the direct path of a possible tornado. Look at that hook!






TORNADO WARNING
KYC035-083-157-102030-
/O.NEW.KPAH.TO.W.0029.160510T2007Z-160510T2030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
307 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
MARSHALL COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
NORTHEASTERN GRAVES COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
NORTHWESTERN CALLOWAY COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT

* AT 305 PM CDT...A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MAYFIELD...
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...
BENTON AROUND 330 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
HARDIN...AURORA...SYMSONIA AND BREWERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A
BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE HOME...OR IN
A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3668 8859 3686 8866 3700 8826 3689 8817
3676 8812
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 252DEG 27KT 3679 8855

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

ML
57. IDTH
Quoting 45. Gearsts:

Anthony Sagliani ‏@anthonywx May 9
Anomalously strong Azores high building over next 2 weeks. Additional eastern Atlantic/MDR cooling likely.



This big high reminds me of the 2013 season. Didn't 2013 end up having a huge Azores high along with the screaming trade winds in the MDR?
Quoting 49. Gearsts:

And trade winds will keep it in check not allowing development.
We don't know how it will look in August..its still May...We won't look that far out anyway for another three months.For now we will focus on home development.....
Quoting 58. washingtonian115:

We don't know how it will look in August..its still May...We won't look that far out anyway for another thee months.For now we will focus on home development.....
Not the point i was trying to make.
Quoting 57. IDTH:


This big high reminds me of the 2013 season. Didn't 2013 end up having a huge Azores high along with the screaming trade winds in the MDR?
Yes
Quoting 29. JRRP7:




Most tropical waves going through the windwards? No I don't want to see that.
Quoting 19. JRRP7:

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice
ECMWF Seasonal Model Atlantic Hurricane Forecast Update: Including Alex, now is predicting 13 Named Storms; 9 Hurricanes; 3 Major Hurricanes


9 hurricanes, wow.
Tornado warned cell in Kentucky.
Radar's got a donut hole. (it had a donut hole) - now filled in.
which kills rain chances in the caribbean also
Quoting 61. Gearsts:

Yes
not again:(...looks like we will have to wait till november for rain:( wish we had not spent any money on plants
Quoting 57. IDTH:


This big high reminds me of the 2013 season. Didn't 2013 end up having a huge Azores high along with the screaming trade winds in the MDR?
A DOW is reporting winds of >216 mph at 55ft from yesterday's significant tornado near Katie.
TWC just showed a picture of the Mayfield Kentucky tornado from just earlier. It was a pretty significant tornado.
69. IDTH
Quoting 66. 19N81W:

not again:(...looks like we will have to wait till november for rain:( wish we had not spent any money on plants


Well this is the ECMWF outlook in about a week. Not the whole season, I honestly don't expect a 2013 type year unless this pattern persists, but I don't expect it to. I'm curious though what the steering patter will be like and whether the east coast will once again be mostly in the crosshairs, or will the Caribbean finally awaken from it's slumber and put the gulf coast under the gun for the first time since the 2008 season really.
Quoting 67. TropicalAnalystwx13:

A DOW is reporting winds of >216 mph at 55ft from yesterday's significant tornado near Katie.


FROM YESTERDAY - near Katie
I still can't get over this video. The tornado is just ripping things apart like crazy at the 50 sec mark. It's hard to believe winds can get this violent.





Get your own valid XHTML YouTube embed code
Quoting 43. European58:

From the last blog:

"201. BahaHurican
11:59 AM GMT on May 10, 2016
Quoting 199. trunkmonkey:
Can anyone tell my why this site crashes my computer every time I come to this site?
A script on this page may be busy, or it may have stopped responding. You can stop the script now, open the script in the debugger, or let the script continue.
Script: https://ajax.googleapis.com/aj%u2026ibs/jquery/1.7 .2/ jquery.min.js:3

U gotta nuke that script... will say more later, but gotta run right now! "

I used to get that message too, but not anymore, nowadays firefox just freezes (for about 1 minute) and after that is works all right.
Best way for me to get around that problem is to not log in, just lurk.

But now (just recently) I can't choose the way I read the comments; I prefer 'order posted' and 200 comments/page, but not being logged in I can't change the default options.
Would be glad if someone could help out, but not by using a different browser, I won't.




Thank you, I will lurk for a while
Quoting 48. washingtonian115:

45. Gearsts
2:35 PM EDT on May 10, 2016
I don't like the position of hat high..if it were August any wave coming off would keep a southern track.
It looks like it would be a Caribbean rider into the Gulf.
Quoting 71. trunkmonkey:




Thank you, I will lurk for a while



I have two computers. My older laptop crashes all the time, if I'm inactive for a few minutes on the Wunderground Blog (doesn't matter what I'm using - explorer, chrome, etc).

My newer laptop works perfectly fine using chrome. I have no issues.



Just read an article saying that this rainy pattern is expected to last until early June.
Quoting 31. DeepSeaRising:



Waiting for that shear shut off switch, El-Nino going to be slower to wane than some models showed. If a La-Nina develops it may not be until late July, early August. Really hard to tell what will happen, more energy available than ever before, have a feeling (based on obvious science) that this Summer is going to be absolutely wild. Hurricane season at peak, could get very interesting.

We've seen a slow down in the drop to La Nina cause the trades let up. Well the trades are back and we'll start seeing some big SST drops across the board. The Euro has been even more onboard with this than GFS - CFS.

Wild rainy/windy weather last week in some places in Equatorial Africa. Some of the poorest people on Earth keep on paying a bitter price for our own high CO2 emissions :
Rwanda. "At least 49 people have been killed by landslides in the country's north following heavy rains on Saturday and Sunday. Torrential rains in the area have also destroyed several homes, stranding many families. Most of the victims lived in the Gakenke district, where 34 deaths have been recorded, more than 500 homes completely destroyed, and scores have been hospitalized. Northern Rwanda is particularly hilly, making it vulnerable to landslides during the rainy season. The government has been encouraging some residents to relocate to safer areas."
While in Ghana :
"Northern Region Hajia Mary Nakobu has declared a state of mourning following the effects of a disastrous rainstorm that hit the area last Friday night. The rainstorm which lasted for some three hours ripped off roofs of over 450 houses in 15 communities rendering dozens homeless and injuring four persons, Ultimate News has been told. School buildings in about three communities have completely been ripped off with some walls razed to the ground. As a result, electricity pylons through which power is supplied to the area were also pulled down plunging the entire district into darkness."
Source ; RSOE-EDIS.
TWC showed that car that got flipped and smashed up pretty good yesterday. I watched the rescue live on News9.com live yesterday.
But TWC said the driver was a "student meteorologist."

Was he a storm chaser?

I believe TWC is going to show an interview with the driver on Wunderground (TWC) in a couple minutes.
UKMET Forecast.
No Tornado Watch today?
They just issued a Tornado Watch.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 162
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
505 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS
FAR SOUTHWEST INDIANA
WESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY
NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 505 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING A FEW
SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOES...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL...EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER WATCH AREA THROUGH
MID-EVENING...WITH EASTWARD MOVEMENT / DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER
TIME.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
OWENSBORO KENTUCKY TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF CLARKSVILLE
TENNESSEE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 159...WW 160...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.
Storm heading towards Hicks Illinois has a really well developed hook. (corrected Hicks in right near the boarder of Kentucky but still in Illinois)
Quoting 71. trunkmonkey:




Thank you, I will lurk for a while



When you want to post/react you can log in, use stop script (probably have to repeat that several times) and after a while script stops. When you reload the page the problem starts again.
TWC just said the vehicle that was flipped over and smashed did have a "storm chaser" in it.

They said the driver was a "she." I'll need to wait until they do the full story for confirmation that she was a "chaser."


Wow - pretty rare. Even for Oklahoma.
Quoting 82. European58:



When you want to post/react you can log in, use stop script (probably have to repeat that several times) and after a while script stops. When you reload the page the problem starts again.


As I mentioned, on my newer (1 year old) laptop using chrome I don't have this issue. I'm using Windows 8.1 in this laptop. Not sure if that matters.

My older laptop is using Windows Vista (lol), and I have to constantly use "stop script" and I get a lot of site crashing.
TWC just showed a video of a tornado tearing things apart in Mayfield Kentucky from just a little earlier today. Hopefully there are no fatalities.
Quoting 76. 999Ai2016:

Wild rainy/windy weather last week in some places in Equatorial Africa. ...

Some more bad news from Africa:
Dozens Killed in Ethiopia Landslides, Flooding Amid Rains
By The Associated Press, ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia - May 10, 2016, 1:31 PM ET
A state-affiliated broadcaster in Ethiopia says at least 50 people have been killed in flooding and landslides triggered by heavy rains.
Fana Broadcasting Corporate cited local officials who said roads have been washed away, bridges have collapsed and tens of thousands of people are affected by heavy rains in many parts of the country.
Alemayehu Mamo, a police official in the Wolaita Zone in southern Ethiopia, told Fana that 41 people were killed Monday following landslide there.
In another area called Bale, in southeastern Ethiopia, nine people died and more than 1,000 cattle drowned in floods.
Ethiopia is struggling with the worst drought in 50 years, but unseasonably heavy rain is also causing massive damage in many parts of the country.


Meanwhile in adjacent Kenya:
Kenya in a froth as drought spurs switch to "camelcinos"
by Hannah McNeish | Thomson Reuters Foundation, Tuesday, 10 May 2016 15:15 GMT
ISIOLO, Kenya - It took 70 dairy cows dying from repeated droughts to convince Fatuma Yousef to try a new business model: camels.
As increasingly fierce, frequent and lengthy dry spells hit northern Kenya, raising dairy cattle has gotten ever harder. But after seeing her initial five camels thrive while eating just tree branches and leaves, Yousef sold 100 cows to buy more expensive camels, whose milk now never dries up.
Now she owns 60 of the beasts, something she considers a good investment as climate change brings more extreme weather. And as more camel milk comes on the market, "camelcinos" are cropping up in Nairobi's cafes, alongside the usual cappuccinos.
"Camels are the number one thing round here right now," said Yousef, waiting at a camel milk collection centre in the northern town of Isiolo, amid her collection of heavy yellow jerry cans.
"The cows can't cope with the drought," she added. But now she produces 60 liters of camel milk a day, from about 20 long-legged "milkers".
More extreme weather in Kenya's arid and neglected northern rangelands - and surging demand for cattle milk in Kenya's cities - are leading growing numbers of the region's nomadic herders to see camels as a drought-safe business investment. ...

Whole report see link above.

El Nino aftermath:
The deadly 'red tide' threatening sea life in Chile
BBC video report, 5 hours ago
Chile's southern coast has been hit by the biggest ever "red tide" in history. It's caused by toxic algae which is killing sea life and damaging the local fishing economy.
Weather forecast for Europe in the next days (all models in pretty agreement). You see the blue/purble colors invade from the polar north right into central Europe, especially Germany? Well, after some very warm days a deep dive of temperatures should happen exactly on the prolonged weekend of Pentecost (prolonged in Germany due to a holiday on Monday). Matches the traditional weather threat of the "Ice Saints". Folks are quite annoyed, of course.



Have a good evening/night, everyone!
As Kori mentioned last night, it looks like severe weather activity is about to shift into high gear. The 200mb VP anomaly signature forecast by models correlates strongly with enhanced severe weather across the country. The CFS for over a week now has been indicating a major uptick during the last two weeks of the month.

Quoting 85. Sfloridacat5:



As I mentioned, on my newer (1 year old) laptop using chrome I don't have this issue. I'm using Windows 8.1 in this laptop. Not sure if that matters.

My older laptop is using Windows Vista (lol), and I have to constantly use "stop script" and I get a lot of site crashing.


Got an old desktop running XP and an old Vista laptop.
I can live with the problems, just a bit of patience needed :)
Quoting 84. daddyjames:



Wow - pretty rare. Even for Oklahoma.
Anticyclonic tornadoes are rare but not as rare as some people might imagine. Six years ago today, during the 55 tornadoes in 5 hours episode May 10, 2010, two anticyclonic tornadoes turned. One was at Cox City and I believe the other was up toward Canton Lake. As I recall, they were both EF1. Yesterday's tornado by Roff is maybe number five or probably the sixth anticyclonic tornado in OK I can recall from 2010 till now.
Sentinel's first map of sea-surface 'hills and valleys'
By Jonathan Amos BBC Science Correspondent, Prague, BBC 10 May 2016
The EU's Sentinel-3a satellite has given a sneak peek at what will be one of its most fundamental products - a map of sea surface height anomalies.
Launched in February, the spacecraft carries an altimeter to sense the oceans' "hills" and "valleys".
It is basic information that is needed to track currents and eddies, inform ocean forecasts and track variability in climate-driven sea-level rise.
This first Sentinel-3a global map contains just one month's data. ...

More see link above.

The pattern of Katie-Wynnewood preliminary EF3, the Sulphur preliminary EF3 and the Roff prelim EF1 anti-cyclonic tor paths is interesting (to me anyway) in that from a distance I thought I was watching a cell split.


Perhaps storm watching from a distance has merit.
Three photos cock-a-roached from NWS Norman Twitter feed...

1) Sulphur tornado - Prelim EF3 surveyed to be up to a mile wide.



2) Anyone want to rate this piece of tornado damage?



3) Wow. Somebody taught him right. Never hurts to have a guardian angel on your shoulder, either. That building looks like a mobile home.

Quoting 94. Barefootontherocks:

Anticyclonic tornadoes are rare but not as rare as some people might imagine. Six years ago today, during the 55 tornadoes in 5 hours episode May 10, 2010, two anticyclonic tornadoes turned. One was at Cox City and I believe the other was up toward Canton Lake. As I recall, they were both EF1. Yesterday's tornado by Roff is maybe number five or probably the sixth anticyclonic tornado in OK I can recall from 2010 till now.


i wonder how many documented anticylonic tornadoes have formed? Does anyone know if these stats are available. Increased ability to detect them may have led to the increase document - although Oklahoma does lead for the number detected in the US.
‘Breathing’ Volcano: How Scientists Captured This Awesome Animation –

Link
Quoting 98. daddyjames:



i wonder how many documented anticylonic tornadoes have formed? Does anyone know if these stats are available. Increased ability to detect them may have led to the increase document - although Oklahoma does lead for the number detected in the US.
You'd find some stats by reading the individual local forecast office write-ups from "weather events." You might try emailing Greg Carbin at SPC. He would point you in the right direction, and he may have that info easily available. Check out his Warning Coordinator Meteorologist page at SPC.
Also
Tornado Project has analyzed and organized a lot of data. Not sure if anticyclonic numbers would be something they'd have handy.
Tornado HIstory Project, another possible?
Quoting 100. Barefootontherocks:

You'd find some stats by reading the individual local forecast office write-ups from "weather events." You might try emailing Greg Carbin at SPC. He would point you in the right direction, and he may have that info easily available. Check out his Warning Coordinator Meteorologist page at SPC. Tornado Project has analyzed and organized a lot of data. Not sure if anticyclonic numbers would be something they'd have handy. Tornado HIstory Project, another possible?


The only thing I have been able to find is a paper by Fujita himself in 1977 (titled: Anticyclonic Tornados). Otherwise, nothing on a quick Google Search. In the only part I had access to (the first page) he stated that only 29 tornadoes from 1950 to 1976 were documented as being anticyclonic. A crude quick estimate (because I have to finish making dinner) is about 10,000 tornadoes documented from 1954-1976.
But I wonder what the frequency really is. We have seen a few here in OK.

Edit: Thanks for the info!
103. 882MB


105. SLU
Good analog for 2016

SLU
That analog year looks rather disturbing for the islands of the lesser Antilles.
I have predicted that the way things are shaping that 2016 may have lots of surprises
Could be a moderately active season after all.
107. MahFL
Quoting 54. RitaEvac:



Seems ground dries up faster now too, can get good rains, and it just turns brick hard dry quickly in the summers. Basically have to have more than inch of rain every week just so things don't get out of control


My yard is bone dry here in NE FL.
Quoting 105. SLU:

Good analog for 2016


No not at all...
Quoting 108. Gearsts:

No not at all...


Good is subjective, huh? xD
Quoting 78. Climate175:

UKMET Forecast.


At least it is near average for us...

But I already feel frustrated to see tropical waves staying south and leaving us dry :/
I agree with that UKMET forecast WAY more than I do the silly one the ECMWF showed the other day.
We are so moist here still that I had to raise my mater plant bed another 6 inches from the previous grade.
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Quoting 112. Patrap:

We are so moist here still that I had to raise my mater plant bed another 6 inches from the previous grade.


Have you seen the "Ketchup and Fries" plant. It grows tomatoes and potatoes... Weird...

We are getting some rain here too. Things are greening up, but the pollen count is off the chain. Allergies are going bonkers - went to get allergy meds and the stores are about sold out.

Hit 61F degrees today, which is fairly warm for early May. Considering it wouldn't be out of the question for snow to fall in May...
What does that mean?
Quoting 89. Gearsts:


116. SLU
Quoting 108. Gearsts:

No not at all...
Quoting 106. stoormfury:

SLU
That analog year looks rather disturbing for the islands of the lesser Antilles.
I have predicted that the way things are shaping that 2016 may have lots of surprises
Could be a moderately active season after all.


I picked 1916 because it falls in line with my thinking as well a tweet from Levi showing analog years with -ENSO and +PDO which produced years like 1931, 1936 and 1985. All of those seasons had a weak Cape Verde season with heavy development in the Caribbean and US waters. It's possible this year too given that the SLPs are lower than average and SSTs higher in the western half of the basin with high pressure and cooler SSTs in the eastern half.
Quoting 115. 19N81W:

What does that mean?



The purples indicate areas of below normal zonal wind anomalies, while the oranges and reds indicate areas of stronger than normal zonal winds (positive anomalies). Zonal winds are from west-to-east or east-to-west; they're functions of latitude, opposed to meridional which is a function of longitude (north-to-south, south-to-north). Winds typically blow from east-to-west in the Caribbean, while they blow from west-to-east in the subtropics, especially north of 30N. This means the Caribbean is experiencing below normal easterly winds (trades) currently.
Quoting 116. SLU:



I picked 1916 because it falls in line with my thinking as well a tweet from Levi showing analog years with -ENSO and +PDO which produced years like 1931, 1936 and 1985. All of those seasons had a weak Cape Verde season with heavy development in the Caribbean and US waters. It's possible this year too given that the SLPs are lower than average and SSTs higher in the western half of the basin with high pressure and cooler SSTs in the eastern half.


Or we could say it falls in line with a typical -AMO configuration. :)
Kori come 2050

Quoting 117. KoritheMan:



The purples indicate areas of below normal zonal wind anomalies, while the oranges and reds indicate areas of stronger than normal zonal winds (positive anomalies). Zonal are winds from west-to-east or east-to-west; they're functions of latitude, opposed to meridional which is a function of longitude (north-to-south, south-to-north). Winds typically blow from east-to-west in the Caribbean, while they blow from west-to-east in the subtropics, especially north of 30N. This means the Caribbean is experiencing below normal easterly winds (trades) currently.
Nothing will transition through the western Carib we are still in a full El Niño pattern and nothing is changing we are bone dry out here and I am witnessing bougenvillia dying. It has been persistently dry here for years. I can think of a couple times over the last 3 years that I have even heard thunder or seen lighting. The western Carib is dead unless we go into an extreme La Niña event. I have lived here for 40 years this weather is unheard of for me.
Quoting 117. KoritheMan:



The purples indicate areas of below normal zonal wind anomalies, while the oranges and reds indicate areas of stronger than normal zonal winds (positive anomalies). Zonal winds are from west-to-east or east-to-west; they're functions of latitude, opposed to meridional which is a function of longitude (north-to-south, south-to-north). Winds typically blow from east-to-west in the Caribbean, while they blow from west-to-east in the subtropics, especially north of 30N. This means the Caribbean is experiencing below normal easterly winds (trades) currently.
Oops mis post
Thank you for taking the time to describe it

Quoting 119. Patrap:

Kori come 2050


Quoting 120. 19N81W:

Nothing will transition through the western Carib we are still in a full El Nio pattern and nothing is changing we are bone dry out here and I am witnessing bougenvillia dying. It has been persistently dry here for years. I can think of a couple times over the last 3 years that I have even heard thunder or seen lighting. The western Carib is dead unless we go into an extreme La Nia event. I have lived here for 40 years this weather is unheard of for me.


You can't use backyard weather to make a generalization about the entire Caribbean, or even your area of the Caribbean.

And no, we aren't still firmly in an El Nino pattern. All the models - including the ensembles - show a big shift at or around May 17th over the US, with troughing becoming replaced by a ridge over the eastern US. This will pave the way for more moisture in the Caribbean, and thus enhanced cyclone development potential into June.
Kori is correct in that regard as sometimes we see conditions, hostile to marginal..do give way to the 1-2 waves that will find a sweet zone and conditions downstream favorable for formation and more.

We look to the GOM early as well as the western Caribbean.

Quoting 105. SLU:

Good analog for 2016


Hi SLU. Why?
126. Siker
Quoting 117. KoritheMan:



The purples indicate areas of below normal zonal wind anomalies, while the oranges and reds indicate areas of stronger than normal zonal winds (positive anomalies). Zonal winds are from west-to-east or east-to-west; they're functions of latitude, opposed to meridional which is a function of longitude (north-to-south, south-to-north). Winds typically blow from east-to-west in the Caribbean, while they blow from west-to-east in the subtropics, especially north of 30N. This means the Caribbean is experiencing below normal easterly winds (trades) currently.


Wait, I thought that the zonal wind anomalies as shown in this type of plot refer to anomalous magnitude in their respective direction (west being negative, east being positive). That's what I've gleaned from following this plot for wind anomalies along the equator during the development of this Niño (where positive anomalies have been discussed as weaker trades, I.E. anomalous westerlies, and blues have been stronger trades, I.E> anomalous easterlies).
Quoting 123. KoritheMan:



You can't use backyard weather to make a generalization about the entire Caribbean, or even your area of the Caribbean.

And no, we aren't still firmly in an El Nino pattern. All the models - including the ensembles - show a big shift at or around May 17th over the US, with troughing becoming replaced by a ridge over the eastern US. This will pave the way for more moisture in the Caribbean, and thus enhanced cyclone development potential into June.
That's a more typical shift than might be expected. However, given the longevity of the dry trend over the WCAR, I'm not surprised by skepticism... if we do see the forecasted transition, it may be a sign of more typical activity during the height of the season.

We haven't experienced a "normal" May-June transition for several years.....
Went to sleep and was awoken by loud thunder and then another clap of thunder two minutes later.Nature why couldn't this wait until tomorrow?
Quoting 126. Siker:



Wait, I thought that the zonal wind anomalies as shown in this type of plot refer to anomalous magnitude in their respective direction (west being negative, east being positive). That's what I've gleaned from following this plot for wind anomalies along the equator during the development of this Niño (where positive anomalies have been discussed as weaker trades, I.E. anomalous westerlies, and blues have been stronger trades, I.E> anomalous easterlies).



If the Nino map is using zonal strictly as west-to-east (which it is), you're right. But as far as I know, the definition for zonal isn't as rigid as that. Maybe I'm wrong, though.
Watching a thunderstorm nearly die, and then the lightning ramped up considerably. Mom got some pretty decent shots. The NWS now has the storm warned for softball size hail.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1040 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL SUMNER COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
SOUTHWESTERN MACON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
NORTHWESTERN TROUSDALE COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT

* AT 1040 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHEAST
OF GALLATIN...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM.

HAZARD...SOFTBALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE SEVERELY INJURED.
EXPECT SHATTERED WINDOWS...EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROOFS...
SIDING...AND VEHICLES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GALLATIN...LAFAYETTE...HARTSVILLE...WESTMORELAND AND BETHPAGE.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

LAT...LON 3641 8645 3655 8640 3657 8604 3634 8612
TIME...MOT...LOC 0340Z 275DEG 18KT 3647 8638

HAIL...4.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
Quoting 128. BahaHurican:

That's a more typical shift than might be expected. However, given the longevity of the dry trend over the WCAR, I'm not surprised by skepticism... if we do see the forecasted transition, it may be a sign of more typical activity during the height of the season.

We haven't experienced a "normal" May-June transition for several years.....


His skepticism is fine, it's just not logically sound; even last year there were several cyclones/faux cyclones in an otherwise moisture-depleted Caribbean. I also dislike saying things haven't been normal for several years, because our memory is already pretty bad. Those kinds of claims require actual data.
Quoting 131. Astrometeor:

Watching a thunderstorm nearly die, and then the lightning ramped up considerably. Mom got some pretty decent shots. The NWS now has the storm warned for softball size hail.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1040 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL SUMNER COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
SOUTHWESTERN MACON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
NORTHWESTERN TROUSDALE COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT

* AT 1040 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHEAST
OF GALLATIN...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM.

HAZARD...SOFTBALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE SEVERELY INJURED.
EXPECT SHATTERED WINDOWS...EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROOFS...
SIDING...AND VEHICLES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GALLATIN...LAFAYETTE...HARTSVILLE...WESTMORELAND AND BETHPAGE.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

LAT...LON 3641 8645 3655 8640 3657 8604 3634 8612
TIME...MOT...LOC 0340Z 275DEG 18KT 3647 8638

HAIL...4.00IN
WIND...<50MPH



Jesus.
Quoting 133. KoritheMan:



Jesus.


Flicker flicker goes my lights...

ROBERTSON TN-DAVIDSON TN-CHEATHAM TN-SUMNER TN-
1101 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN ROBERTSON...NORTHERN DAVIDSON...NORTHEASTERN CHEATHAM
AND SOUTHWESTERN SUMNER COUNTIES...

AT 1101 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR JOELTON TO NEAR MILLERSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SPRINGFIELD...ASHLAND CITY...HENDERSONVILLE...GOODLETTSVILLE...WHITE
HOUSE...MILLERSVILLE...GREENBRIER...COOPERTOWN... RIDGETOP...JOELTON...
PLEASANT VIEW AND COTTONTOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A
STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3629 8659 3649 8643 3648 8706 3627 8707
3627 8668
TIME...MOT...LOC 0401Z 270DEG 28KT 3636 8688 3639 8660

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
135. SLU
Quoting 125. BahaHurican:

Hi SLU. Why?


I picked 1916 because it falls in line with my thinking as well a tweet from Levi showing analog years with -ENSO and PDO which produced years like 1931, 1936 and 1985. All of those seasons had a weak Cape Verde season with heavy development in the Caribbean and US waters. It's possible this year too given that the SLPs are lower than average and SSTs higher in the western half of the basin with high pressure and cooler SSTs in the eastern half.

IMO it may be a high impact season with many storms traversing land areas with the return of the Caribbean cruisers like 1988 and 2007 ..... typical of La Nina years. Not necessarily a 2005 scenario but lots of close in development.
136. SLU
Quoting 125. BahaHurican:

Hi SLU. Why?


I picked 1916 because it falls in line with my thinking as well a tweet from Levi showing analog years with -ENSO and +PDO which produced years like 1931, 1936 and 1985. All of those seasons had a weak Cape Verde season with heavy development in the Caribbean and US waters. It's possible this year too given that the SLPs are lower than average and SSTs higher in the western half of the basin with high pressure and cooler SSTs in the eastern half.

IMO it may be a high impact season with many storms traversing land areas with the return of the Caribbean cruisers like 1988 and 2007 ..... typical of La Nina years.
Storm is moving on. Saw one pea size hailstone. And a wolf spider that decided to seek shelter by coming into our house. >.< Best feeling ever when your foot brushes against a soft object that's not supposed to be there. Can't say I blame him, rain was torrential. Brother says he might be at fault for letting the spider in, he had opened the screen door to look outside at the storm.
138. JRRP7
Quoting 4. daddyjames:

From the previous blog. I wish you all a great day, as I have to wander around today away from any computer/cell phone signal.



Let's see, Norovirus hitting the recent Japanese earthquake survivors; similar or the same here hitting the Ft. McMurray citizens...

Much as I hate hand sanitizers, seems like adding a few small bottles of the stuff, and maybe sanitizing wipes, to any bugout/emergency evac bag is a good idea.
Quoting 85. Sfloridacat5:



As I mentioned, on my newer (1 year old) laptop using chrome I don't have this issue. I'm using Windows 8.1 in this laptop. Not sure if that matters.

My older laptop is using Windows Vista (lol), and I have to constantly use "stop script" and I get a lot of site crashing.


I've got a creaky old Dell Latitude XT given to me with Vista. ASAP I set it up with Lubuntu. Still slow as all get out, but it's fine for non-web stuff, and ebook handling.
Global Warming Cited as Wildfires Increase in Fragile Boreal Forest

" ... the threat [from climate change] to these vast stands of spruce and other resinous trees, collectively known as the boreal forest, is real."

Closer to home, had surprise development of thunderstorms to the SW of Houston this evening. They are moving pretty quickly thisaway and I'm hearing thunder now. Won't see much rain from them. Just notable that the development seemed unexpected.
Not for us in FL.!
Quoting 105. SLU:

Good analog for 2016


Quoting 142. swflurker:

Not for us in FL.!


You can't handle two tropical storms?
Quoting 143. KoritheMan:



You can't handle two tropical storms?


Tropical storms can still do a lot of damage.... Isn't none better than some. And who knows if this time they would be tropical storms.
145. bwi
Quoting 144. Dakster:



Tropical storms can still do a lot of damage.... Isn't none better than some. And who knows if this time they would be tropical storms.


I was just going by the map. :P
5/10 joe b clip. he is falling in line with my January guess for 2016 atlantic hurricane season. slightly above normal ACE but the systems will be in close to the conus. it takes big hurricanes to add up the ace. good luck everyone
remember Donna much of sw Fl. was under water. prepared? start doing it before its too late.
Quoting 54. RitaEvac:



Seems ground dries up faster now too, can get good rains, and it just turns brick hard dry quickly in the summers. Basically have to have more than inch of rain every week just so things don't get out of control


Google about using baby shampoo to help water penetrate deeper. My yard was rock hard and would start browning a day or two after watering, now it stays green much longer.
kepler telescope has discovered 9 planets similar to earth! just wonder if the funding for this satellite would of been available if nasa did not can the shuttle program?


The scale is daunting. In 2011 a similar forest fire destroyed 400 buildings in the town of Slave Lake, Alberta. Ash clogged water treatment and sewer systems.

Without electricity for two weeks, more than 4,000 freezers and refrigerators with rotting food had to be disposed of, along with debris cleaned from the streets, and waste from homes, buildings and yards, including fire-damaged concrete from foundations and walkways, vehicles, swing sets and more.

Canada wildfire – what are the environmental impacts?
152. MahFL
Quoting 150. islander101010:

kepler telescope has discovered 9 planets similar to earth! just wonder if the funding for this satellite would of been available if nasa did not can the shuttle program?


NASA did not cancel the Shuttle, GW Bush announced the retirement of the Shuttle in his Vision For Space Exploration, in 2003.
Good Morning; here are the storm reports from yesterday and convective outlook for today:

yesterday Reports Graphic

And the current look and jet:

Well if you say so then....what's out your backyard?
Quoting 123. KoritheMan:



You can't use backyard weather to make a generalization about the entire Caribbean, or even your area of the Caribbean.

And no, we aren't still firmly in an El Nino pattern. All the models - including the ensembles - show a big shift at or around May 17th over the US, with troughing becoming replaced by a ridge over the eastern US. This will pave the way for more moisture in the Caribbean, and thus enhanced cyclone development potential into June.
The Conus jet appears to be to the South of Texas at the moment but the low just to the North of the State, and high pressure just to the South is bringing winds caused by the pressure gradients over Texas that is streaming off the tops of the clouds:





And finally the summary for Conus for today from SPC and WPC;
have to see how it all unfolds in the lower and upper mid-west
later today:


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF OK INTO
NWRN TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NWRN TX NEWD ACROSS THE
LOWER MO AND MID MS VALLEYS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA AND EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...

CORRECTED FOR WORDING

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY FROM PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSOURI AND MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN BY
LATE IN THE DAY...CONCENTRATED ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS...WITH A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE AS WELL. ISOLATED
SEVERE HAIL OR WIND IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.


Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
253 AM EDT Wed May 11 2016

Valid 12Z Wed May 11 2016 - 12Z Fri May 13 2016

...Strong frontal boundary to affect the central U.S. through Thursday...

The main weather feature across the nation will be a strong low pressure
system over the north-central U.S. that will have a trailing cold front
extending southward to Texas and the Desert Southwest. An occluded
surface low over North Dakota will slowly lift northeastward to southern
Canada, with rainy weather over eastern Montana and western North Dakota
for the first half of Wednesday. Farther to the south, another surface
low along the trailing cold front will also produce widespread showers and thunderstorms
extending from Texas to the Ohio Valley. Some of these storms could be
severe at times, and also produce localized flash flooding.
Article of interest from the Director of the National Science Foundation putting forth a long-term funding proposal for the next Administration and beyond in terms of pressing scientific issues facing the Nation in the future; the link to the full text (and proposal is included) but just noting that Arctic Melt made the list:

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/05/nsf-direct or-unveils-big-ideas-eye-next-president-and-congre ss


Some Key Questions
How will the dramatic changes in sea ice alter marine ecosystem structure and primary productivity?
How will the new Arctic Ocean ecosystem function?
What new indicators and theory are needed to understand adaptive capacity of Arctic individuals
and communities experiencing the unprecedented rate of Arctic environmental and social change?
How will permafrost thaw and the changing Arctic water cycle alter Arctic terrestrial ecosystems
and greenhouse gas emissions?
What is are the linkages between Arctic warming and changing mid-latitude weather patterns?

160. MahFL
Day 1 SPC outlook update has removed the Enhanced Risk.

161. 882MB


Quoting 110. CaribBoy:



At least it is near average for us...

But I already feel frustrated to see tropical waves staying south and leaving us dry :/


After 3 or 4 straight years of having all the fun don't you think it's time to share Carib? Us southerners are struggling.
Leftover warm water in Pacific Ocean fueled massive El Niño

A new study provides insight into how the current El Niño, one of the strongest on record, formed in the Pacific Ocean. The new research finds easterly winds in the tropical Pacific Ocean stalled a potential El Niño in 2014 and left a swath of warm water in the central Pacific. The presence of that warm water stacked the deck for a monster El Niño to occur in 2015, according to the study's authors.

Link

Quoting 161. 882MB:




   Not going gently into the night....

Toasty Time again, and no rain chances in sight...
with the disappearance of El Nino towards the end of May, then one should be watching the western caribbean for development. The strong wind shear should be almost gone by early June and with the warm SST this, area is primed for development. would not be surprise to see Bonnie form in this area during the last week of may or early June.
Quoting 166. PedleyCA:


Toasty Time again, and no rain chances in sight...



We're having highs around 90 degrees with lows around 70 degrees every day here. It will only get warmer with no cooler weather expected until November. lol
Quoting 151. RobertWC:



The scale is daunting. In 2011 a similar forest fire destroyed 400 buildings in the town of Slave Lake, Alberta. Ash clogged water treatment and sewer systems.

Without electricity for two weeks, more than 4,000 freezers and refrigerators with rotting food had to be disposed of, along with debris cleaned from the streets, and waste from homes, buildings and yards, including fire-damaged concrete from foundations and walkways, vehicles, swing sets and more.

Canada wildfire : what are the environmental impacts?

Great article, though the reality it depicts is rather disgusting. There are consequences from some wildfires (those involving human infrastructure, or polluted soils) I wasn't aware of, like the water pollution, and the toxins/heavy metals in the air. I don't know what to think of the total CO2 emissions, seems like it's virtually nothing compared to the oils sands facilities in Alberta.
At a rough estimate, the fire will have resulted in a few million tonnes of CO2 emitted. That compares to Alberta's 274m tonnes in 2014 ; the majority of which is from tar sands production. CO2 emissions from the fire are not expected to be significant on a global scale "unless a lot of peat burned," said Dr Mike Flannigan, professor of renewable resources at the University of Alberta. "We will have some rough estimates in a week or two," Flannigan told the Guardian.
I'm a bit worried about the possibility that significant loads of ash end up on the arctic sea ice and Greenland's ice cap, though much of the smoke will probably fall closer to the fire. From Wildfiretoday.com :

(I love that old military computer's look ;-)
19N, hope you get your rain. You have been talking about lack of precipitation in your locale for at least a couple of years.

Quoting 155. 19N81W:

Well if you say so then....what's out your backyard?

Cough, Cough

NOAA’s premier forecast model goes four-dimensional

Excerpt:

The GFS model is run four times a day with each update forecasting out to 16 days. With the new GFS, the model delivers hourly forecast guidance out to five days, instead of every three hours as before.
This is for the counties just to my north...impressive training going on.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1036 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR NORTHERN SUMNER...WESTERN MACON...AND
TROUSDALE COUNTIES...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SUMNER COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
WESTERN MACON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
TROUSDALE COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 1245 PM CDT

* AT 1032 AM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED FLASH
FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...WITH WATER RESCUES
OCCURRING AND NUMEROUS ROADS FLOODED AND CLOSED. RADAR RAINFALL
MEASUREMENTS SHOW AS MUCH AS 7 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE
WARNED AREA...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE
INTO THE AFTERNOON.


* THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR GALLATIN...CASTALIAN
SPRINGS...LAFAYETTE...HARTSVILLE...WHITE HOUSE...WESTMORELAND...
PORTLAND...BLEDSOE CREEK STATE PARK...COTTONTOWN...BETHPAGE
AND OAK GROVE. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND NOW!

* MAJOR FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY ALONG BLEDSOE CREEK NEAR
GALLATIN...THE GOOSE CREEK BASIN NEAR HARTSVILLE...WEST FORK
DRAKES CREEK NEAR PORTLAND...AND SULPHER FORK CREEK NEAR
BRACKENTOWN IN SUMNER COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND
LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL UNLESS YOU ARE
FLEEING AN AREA SUBJECT TO FLOODING OR UNDER AN EVACUATION ORDER.
173. elioe
Cooler here today, only +14 C, but still sunny. Rain begins on Saturday, occasionally pretty heavy. By next Wednesday, accumulations may reach 60 mm.



(modified from this)
169. 999Ai2016

Some of the peat deposits in those woods are 2 meters deep.
www.co2.earth

Atmospheric CO2

April 2016

407.57
parts per million (ppm)

Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii (Scripps)

Preliminary data released May 4, 2016
Quoting 174. RobertWC:

169. 999Ai2016

Some of the peat deposits in those woods are 2 meters deep.

Then I'll be waiting for next week's "rough estimates".
About wildfires, arctic landscapes and such things, the AGU's Fall Meeting 2015 featured several presentations (available on youtube) about these subjects, including this one :
- VIDEO : Press Conference - Alaska's thawing permafrost : latest results and future projections.
Also, I found this one worth watching, despite the low quality video:
- VIDEO : The Earth's Disappearing Cryosphere: Glaciers, Snow Cover, Floating Ice, and Permafrost
Quoting 161. 882MB:




Trade winds are forecast to increase.

The May 9th Oklahoma Tornado is upgraded to EF-4.
@NWSNorman

NEW! The May 9th Katie tornado (W of I-35) is being upgraded to EF4 based on more intensive review of survey data. Updated PNS and map soon.

1250.org

The number 1250 is a near-term interim target for atmospheric concentrations of methane (1250 parts per billion) akin to the long-term 350 (parts per million) stabilization target for CO2.

The non-CO2 forcings deserve emphasis comparable to that placed on CO2.

Expected difficulties in slowing the growth rate of CO2 and eventually stabilizing atmospheric CO2 amount make the non-CO2 forcings all the more important.

– James Hansen, Former Director, NASA GISS

Dear Reader,

We are in a planetary climate emergency. As in all emergencies, the order and timing of our responses will now become critical.

According to some of the world’s preeminent sea ice experts, one of whom is a member of this group, the Arctic summer sea ice minimum could rapidly drop to near-zero (with a September minimum of 1 million square kilometers in extent or lower) quite soon now, decades sooner than predicted by most major climate models. Because of the immense stores of methane and other carbon locked in the Arctic, the dramatically accelerating input of summer insolation into the Arctic ocean as more and more of the summer sea ice disappears, and the possible interconnections between these Arctic changes and increased extreme weather at the mid-latitudes where so many humans live, the risks of allowing the Arctic to melt unchecked are becoming untenable. Something must be done about it.

1250’s mission is to help increase awareness of, and contribute to the development of, intelligent and well-informed near-term climate strategy to help alleviate this crisis, without interfering with the rapid transformation of energy systems and other needed actions to achieve immediate and dramatic cuts in our emissions of CO2. In this way, 1250 provides a vital component missing from the ‘350 movement’ begun by Bill McKibben. 1250 is not just an advocacy group for methane cuts, moreover. Rather, it is a group focusing on near-term climate as a whole, and the remaining practical pathways to constructing a ‘climate bridge’ to a stable future.

Steep black carbon cuts, for example, will also be essential to building that bridge. The non-CO2 contributions to current warming taken together still exceed those of CO2 (they total about 57% of warming since industrialization), so there is considerable potential to alleviate our immediate situation through these means, and black carbon cuts in particular could bring their benefits very quickly and attenuate the accelerating Arctic crisis.

Unfortunately, however, ‘doing the math’ accurately these days also suggests that even with the most rapid reductions of black carbon, methane and other non-CO2 components (in addition to massive CO2 cuts, of course), emissions reductions alone will not long be able to keep the rapidly shifting Arctic stable. 1250 thus also advocates an immediate, holistic Arctic ‘rescue package,’ including some mild, local engineered interventions. We agree fully with the goals of Greenpeace and their ‘Save the Arctic’ program, but apart from pledging to keep out fossil fuel interests, Greenpeace has not yet detailed any way to save it.

If the Arctic is left to keep melting, moreover, it will become well-nigh impossible to stop the fossil industry from moving in, making this one the largest societal tipping points of our time. Either we move in the direction of 1250 – which demands a change of consciousness about the plurality of climate change causes and cures – or we will quite likely slide inexorably into a catastrophic future, even if positive steps are taken to move towards clean energy and lower CO2 emissions.
Quoting 178. Tropicsweatherpr:


The May 9th Oklahoma Tornado is upgraded to EF-4.
@NWSNorman

NEW! The May 9th Katie tornado (W of I-35) is being upgraded to EF4 based on more intensive review of survey data. Updated PNS and map soon.




Someone in here posted that the mobile doppler recorded a 212 mph wind at something like 50 ft. off the ground in Katie, Oklahoma. So I would assume the tornado would at least be an EF4 at ground level. Also just some of the video footage looks like it has to be at least an EF4.
But that's why we have the "experts" survey the damage. But it's still an estimation (based on damage) vs. an instrument measurement (anemometer for example).
Jim Cantore
6 hrs ·

At: 440am...Omaha dispatch reports 2FEET of hail on the ground near 36th and Forest Lawn. SNOWPLOW has been requested for the hail.
Interesting that the issue of global warming is figuratively and literally trickling down from the "top" to the bottom in terms of Arctic Melt issues and many people are taking notice whether out of real concern or just as a matter of profit (over the Earth). Most interesting thing to me at this point is that while so many people across the world are finally falling in support of the science and reduction of greenhouse gasses, the oil and fishing industry is already plotting to go into the region and deplete resources even more as the ice melts away...................................... The Arctic should remain a protected region free from additional commercial exploitation in my opinion given what is actually at stake.
186. JRRP7






Published on May 9, 2016

This is our complete chase footage from our dealings with the destructive tornado just west of Wynnewood, Oklahoma on May 9, 2016. First few video scenes are taken a mile west of Interstate 35 as the tornado churns over a field. We relocate back east to Interstate 35 and let the tornado essentially come right at us. Debris falls around us as the tornado begins to occlude. The tornadic circulation dissipated as t passed to our North.
Quoting 161. 882MB:





Man look at the Indian Ocean! You talking breading ground for cyclones to erupt big time!
Quoting 155. 19N81W:

Well if you say so then....what's out your backyard?





Doo doo doo lookin' out my back door

There's a giant doing cartwheels a statue wearin' high heels
Look at all the happy creatures dancing on the lawn
A dinosaur Victrola list'ning to Buck Owens

Doo doo doo lookin' out my back door

Tambourines and elephants are playing in the band
Won't you take a ride on the flyin' spoon?
Doo, doo doo
Wond'rous apparition provided by magician

Doo doo doo lookin' out my back door

Tambourines and elephants are playing in the band
Won't you take a ride on the flyin' spoon?
Doo, doo doo
Bother me tomorrow, today, I'll buy no sorrow

Doo doo doo lookin' out my back door

Forward troubles Illinois, lock the front door, oh boy!
Look at all the happy creatures dancing on the lawn
Bother me tomorrow, today, I'll buy no sorrow

Doo doo doo lookin' out my back door
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aae_RHRptRg
Question for the blog:
Why doesn't the IO get huge numbers of TC activity?
It almost always has 30c waters and low shear with little land areas in the way and moist atmosphere.

91. Gearsts
2:36 PM EDT on May 11, 2016

Dr. Masters addressed that issue last year when they had two relatively rare tropical storms (if my memory is correct) that struck in the Middle East coming in from the Indian Ocean/Arabian Sea region under low wind shear and very warm SSTs but I do not remember if he discussed the actual dynamic involved with their climatology. Ironically that region is the only one showing purple on the TCFP page today; if we start to see more storms in that region, I would think that some more research will be done on that basin and tropical storms:





And here is the very moist atmosphere spilling into the region from the West Pac: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/imagemain.p hp?&basin=indian&prod=wvbbm&sat=m5


JeffMasters has created a new entry.
196. vis0

Quoting 139. nonblanche:



Let's see, Norovirus hitting the recent Japanese earthquake survivors; similar or the same here hitting the Ft. McMurray citizens...

Much as I hate hand sanitizers, seems like adding a few small bottles of the stuff, and maybe sanitizing wipes, to any bugout/emergency evac bag is a good idea.
cmmnt#407 on my zilly blog.