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Hurricane Intensity Forecast Models Are Improving

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 4:30 PM GMT on May 06, 2016

Forecast accuracy in predicting where a hurricane will go has improved dramatically over the past 20 years, with official NHC track errors for 1 - 5 day Atlantic forecasts improving by more than a factor of two (Figure 1). Improving hurricane intensity forecasts, though, has proved to be very difficult--there has been very little improvement in official NHC intensity forecasts over the past 20 years (Figure 2). However, the models used to predict hurricane intensity have steadily improved over the past six years, and this improvement may herald the arrival of significantly improved hurricane intensity forecasts in the coming years. A good portion of this credit goes to the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP), a ten-year project that began in 2009 with the objective of reducing hurricane track and intensity errors by 20% over five years (by 2014) and by 50% over ten years (by 2019.)


Figure 1. Verification of official NHC hurricane track forecasts for the Atlantic, 1990 - 2015. Over the past 15 years, 1 - 5 day track forecast errors have been reduced by approximately 50%. Image credit: 2015 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report.


Figure 2. Verification of official NHC hurricane intensity forecasts for the Atlantic, 1990 - 2015. Intensity forecasts have shown much slower improvement that track forecasts. There is some support for the idea that 1-day and 2-day intensity forecasts since 2010 (red and green lines) have shown a modest increase in improvement. Image credit: 2015 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report.

Improvements in NOAA's HWRF model
The main focus of development efforts in HFIP have been to improve NOAA's HWRF model, which was the top-performing hurricane intensity model in 2015 and 2012 - 2015. If we consider the HWRF model alone, its improvement over the five-year period ending in 2014 has been 20% (Figure 3), meeting the HFIP goal of a 20% improvement in hurricane intensity models in a five-year period. (Note that HFIP cannot take full credit for the improvement of the HWRF model during this period, since the National Weather Service made independent substantial improvements to NOAA's GFS model, which supplies the initial conditions needed to run the HWRF model.) Official NHC intensity forecasts have also improved since 2009, though the numbers in 2015 for 3 - 5 day forecasts did not follow this trend. The 2015 numbers may be skewed because of the relatively few number of forecasts made last year, as NHC made forecasts as far out as five days for only four storms, two of which proved difficult to forecast--Danny and Joaquin. This allowed a few ugly forecasts to have an unrepresentative influence on the yearly stats. Perhaps most encouraging, the HWRF model showed significant progress in 2015 in making the most important intensity forecasts there are--ones of rapid intensification (RI). The model's probability of detection of an RI event increased, and the false alarm rate went down, compared to forecasts from previous years.


Figure 3. Intensity forecasts from NOAA's HWRF model for Atlantic tropical cyclones for the 2015 version of the model have shown a 20% improvement, meeting the 5-year improvement goal for the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP), a ten-year project that began in 2009 with the objective of reducing hurricane track and intensity errors by 20% over five years (by 2014). Image credit: Vijay Tallapragada, NOAA/EMC.

Improvements coming in 2016 for NOAA's HWRF model
The HWRF model should be even better this year. In July of 2016, the HWRF model is scheduled to receive a major upgrade to its code to improve the boundary layer and surface physics and vertical wind structure. The model will also increase the size of the "zoomed-in" region where its highest-resolution calculations are performed immediately surrounding a hurricane, and HWRF will be connected to a separate hurricane wave model which will allow the two models to interact and improve the forecasts of both models. I look forward to seeing if the HFIP program can meet its goal of a 50% improvement of hurricane intensity forecasts by 2019; I think 2016 will be a crucial test. Even if this goal is not met, HFIP has shown its worth in training a new generation of hurricane scientists. Many of these researchers will be moving into operational weather forecasting in the next few years in support of NOAA's latest modeling effort, the Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS).


Figure 4. Skill of computer model intensity forecasts of Atlantic named storms in 2015, compared to a "no skill" model called "Decay-SHIFOR5" that uses just climatology and persistence to make a hurricane intensity forecast (persistence means that a storm will tend to maintain its current behavior.) The official NHC intensity forecasts were close in skill to three of their four main intensity models. These four models were the dynamical Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting (HWRF) and Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory (GFDL) models, which subdivide the atmosphere into a 3-D grid around the storm and solve the atmospheric equations of fluid flow at each point on the grid, and the statistics-based Logistic Growth Equation Model (LGEM) and Decay Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (DSHIPS, the SHIPS model with inland decay of a storm factored in.) The GFDL model did poorly in 2015. Note also that NOAA's Global Forecast System (GFS) and the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model (ECMWF) made lousy intensity forecasts relative to climatology and persistence except at 5 days; these models are generally disregarded by NHC when making intensity forecasts. Image credit: 2015 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report.

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Our thousands of members with personal weather stations (PWSs) are the heart and soul of Weather Underground; it’s the data they provide that helps give WU forecast apps their hyper-local edge. Our first-ever PWS Owner Appreciation Week, running through next Wednesday, May 11, pays tribute to our backyard observer-members. You’ll find profiles of PWS owners and their stations posted on the WU PWS blog. On Thursday, WU’s Madeline Rae introduced us to GoodGreen House, located in central New York between Binghamton and Ithaca, where Jeff White and Liz Smith use a PWS to keep track of conditions both outside and inside the working greenhouse that also serves as their home. Check out the profile to learn more. Earlier this year, Madeline spotlighted Koe Kellen, a firefighter in northern Illinois whose PWS helps Koe and his fellow volunteers assess fire risk.

There’s still time for you to participate in our PWS giveaway. By taking a quick quiz, you’ll have a shot at winning one of 10 personal weather stations or 500 WU T-shirts. Winners will be announced on Wednesday, May 11, so don’t delay!


Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

  Good to know, thanks Gentlemen....
Oi, it seems like they are improving, good cheers to you NOAA and GFS.

Also, Jeff did you recive that email about that "passion project"?

I was the one who sent it.

Also aperenlty a very healthy tropics band in the east pacific, we could have a storm forming at any time now.

Don't know if we will get anymore rain today. WU is showing some chance of about the same amount as yesterday (.02) Indian Hills PWS reported .03 last night, The CoCoRaHS site around the corner from me didn't report anything. It rained here for awhile and it should have been measurable. I don't have a rain gauge.
What no improvements to the XTRAP model ?? :) #sarcasm on
A blog related to hurricanes :)

We may need to watch the sw caribbean later this month.A lot more energy than normal down there.
Thank You for the scoop on the model improvements; those are some impressive numbers and it will be exciting to see how they fare over the next several seasons (and especially as to the RI issue).  I (personally) am still not sold on the 5 day forecast/cone.  3 days notice (for the potential impact zone) is actually plenty of time for folks in the cone to prepare but there may always be a few curve balls from time to time from Mother Nature (sudden shear drop, a ridge/trof timing issue affecting steering on final approach, hitting a warm pool/gulf stream or eddy pocket, etc).  The 3 day cone has been extremely good the past several years the majority of the time we have all noticed slight "tweaks" on final approach in that time frame but no major changes/track swings at the last minute.  

Unfortunately, there will always be people who will second guess an NHC tropical storm forecast if a storm weakens or intensifies outside of the forecast probabilities at landfall, or misses the center line of the cone by a hundred miles, but that comes with the territory.     
Quoting 4. viman:

What no improvements to the XTRAP model ?? :) #sarcasm on


You know darn well that during the next (and just about every) storm, someone will comment that the XTRAP model has the storm heading right for them.
Quoting 5. washingtonian115:

A blog related to hurricanes :)

We may need to watch the sw caribbean later this month.A lot more energy than normal down there.


That energy profile tells me if a storm wants to make a name for itself this season, it must take a very Ivan-like route...
If I stepped IN a POODLE, that means we have zombies, not rain. Just sayin'
One way for model forecasts to be improved would be for them to forecast that the storm will not make landfall in Costa Rica! Pretty much a dead certainty. But for the rest of the basins, not so much skill. But it's good to know that the skill is being improved and that as storms get more powerful and frequent knowledge of where they are most likely to know will also improve.
Sunday evening looks potentially dangerous across the Central Plains/South Plains as a potent upper-level trough ejects eastward. Although moisture availability is a concern tomorrow, dewpoints into the low to mid-60s should overspread the warm sector, while ample destabilization should yield 2000-3000j/kg of SBCAPE. Compared to last Tuesday, mid-level winds are much less meridonal; this should limit veer-back-veer wind profiles and favor supercellular storms over line segments. Low-level shear is also more impressive Sunday compared to Tuesday; this should yield higher storm relative helicity and increase the chances for a few strong tornadoes.

It's interesting to watch the element of human psychology play into forecasts. I have heard very little hype surrounding Sunday, which looks much better than last Tuesday did 3 days in advance, when the SPC was warning of a severe weather outbreak with strong tornadoes. Seeing as though modelling is mostly in agreement, the lack of stronger wording can likely be attributed to the fear of another bust.

Quoting 7. Bucsboltsfan:



You know darn well that during the next (and just about every) storm, someone will comment that the XTRAP model has the storm heading right for them.


hehehehe
From Eric Blake Twitter:

So HFIP is apparently working and it is being cut again.


Landmark hurricane project on back burner after decade with no storms

Excerpt:

The program was originally given $13 million annually beginning in 2009. That was cut to $4.8 million last year and is expected to be further reduced to $3.8 million as focus turns to a broader array of prediction products that will refine all hazardous weather forecasts, said NOAA spokesman David Miller.

A $2 million reduction has also been requested to forgo future research and development for computing capacity as NOAA “reduces its investment” in the project.
Subjective impression, but it seems to me that Pacific hurricane intensities have been seriously underestimated in recent years. The Pacific appears to be relatively immune to the sinking air that has suppressed Atlantic hurricanes for the past few seasons, and intensity forecasts for Atlantic storms have often been overestimates because of this factor.

If there's no sinking air in the Atlantic zone this year, I'd expect underestimates again. I don't think the models handle sinking air at all well.
Quoting 15. yonzabam:

Subjective impression, but it seems to me that Pacific hurricane intensities have been seriously underestimated in recent years. The Pacific appears to be relatively immune to the sinking air that has suppressed Atlantic hurricanes for the past few seasons, and intensity forecasts for Atlantic storms have often been overestimates because of this factor.

If there's no sinking air in the Atlantic zone this year, I'd expect underestimates again. I don't think the models handle sinking air at all well.

This, and e.g. Indian Ocean Fantama, but also Atlantic Joaquin has led me to the following interpretation of model output while a system is still near blobular. 'Take the most bullish output of the most bullish model and add three categories to be attained two days before the model has the system peak'.
So OP is of some particular interest to me.
Lot's of showers in San Diego County ....... .10 at my place thus far.......many 1/4 to 1/2 totals in many places. Let it rain!

16. HurricaneFan
1:27 PM EDT on May 06, 2016
(Looks at time stamp) ....'nuff said....
Thanks for this update, docs.
Also, I found this article useful:
Airborne Doppler Observations of the Inner-Core Structural Differences between Intensifying and Steady-State Tropical Cyclones (full .pdf)
I'm far from understanding even half of it, but I will save it in order to read it again sometimes, when the next rapidly intensifying cyclone pops up somewhere. Well worth a read for those interested in my opinion.
(Thanks to Washingtonian, I followed the image link in post .5 and went on exploring the available links there, which led me to this one)
Quoting 19. washingtonian115:

16. HurricaneFan
1:27 PM EDT on May 06, 2016
(Looks at time stamp) ....'nuff said....

But modelling just got better!
Quoting 15. yonzabam:

Subjective impression, but it seems to me that Pacific hurricane intensities have been seriously underestimated in recent years. The Pacific appears to be relatively immune to the sinking air that has suppressed Atlantic hurricanes for the past few seasons, and intensity forecasts for Atlantic storms have often been overestimates because of this factor.

If there's no sinking air in the Atlantic zone this year, I'd expect underestimates again. I don't think the models handle sinking air at all well.


To which I replied:
Quoting 17. cRRKampen:


This, and e.g. Indian Ocean Fantama, but also Atlantic Joaquin has led me to the following interpretation of model output while a system is still near blobular. 'Take the most bullish output of the most bullish model and add three categories to be attained two days before the model has the system peak'.
So OP is of some particular interest to me.


My theory is the depth of hot surface sea water gets (or got) handled inadequately by many cyclone models. That something in that set of parameters is underestimated. Something in the way of estimations of temperature at say 30 or 50m depth to 100 or even 200m.
Last year's Joaquin was, as OP mentions, an outlier in forecasting. However it too resided over record hot ocean waters and somehow an aspect of that doesn't get well represented in modelling.
Quoting 18. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Lot's of showers in San Diego County ....... .10 at my place thus far.......many 1/4 to 1/2 totals in many places. Let it rain!



Good to hear that! At my PWS in Truckee, we have received 0.22 inches so far this morning, on top of 0.70 yesterday. Bring it, baby!
Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 1h1 hour ago
Tip for model watchers: If the GFS has a cyclonic jet kink close to a forecast TC in W. Carib, the TC is fake.
Interesting that the models are improving with intensity forecast but the NHC is not. I'm curious if the NHC misses are more under forecasting intensity or over forecasting intensity? My guess is under but I could be wrong.
   Started to sprinkle when I was outside cutting suckers off the tree out there and it stopped as soon as I was done. Nice (new) Cell SE of me. Probably not going to make it over this way. I moved the car out so if it does rain it will get its yearly bath...
The GFS still has its odd fetish going on with a caribbean system.
.
Very unusual winter did this. And as of now record high temperatures keep hammering the nails in the coffin. (Fortunately, to my knowledge, no fatalities attributed to the FtMcMurray fire yet)
* Alberta Premier says : Fort McMurray region has not seen rain for two months, fire will continue to burn for a very long time until the area gets significant rain. Fire is at the gates of Nexen Long Lake facility but wind is expected to push flames away from it today. Fort McMurray wildfire is jumping kilometres at a time, which is a rare, rare fire event. More evacs to come from oil sands infrastructure north of the city if necessary.
Firefighters will be at Fort McMurray fires for "weeks and weeks".
Source: Reuters - Fri, 6 May 2016 17:41 GMT
BRIEF-Alberta Premier says Fort McMurray fire now 101,000 hectares

- Large satellite image of the Canada fires, May 6.
We need to talk about climate change, Slate.com, Eric Holthaus
Quoting 24. Gearsts:

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 1h1 hour ago
Tip for model watchers: If the GFS has a cyclonic jet kink close to a forecast TC in W. Carib, the TC is fake.



Well I'd wait and see if we can get this on model runs for the next few day to week or so and the kinks can be fixed then we may legitimately have something

I've noticed GFS has been hinting on some sort of tropical activity in the area for the last few days
Also it is that time of year that we may get a tropical system in the area
Quoting 28. washingtonian115:

The GFS still has its odd fetish going on with a caribbean system.


Hmm it could be but I think tropical systems has a weird fetish with the W Caribbean IMO
Quoting 31. wunderkidcayman:



Well I'd wait and see if we can get this on model runs for the next few day to week or so and the kinks can be fixed then we may legitimately have something

I've noticed GFS has been hinting on some sort of tropical activity in the area for the last few days
Also it is that time of year that we may get a tropical system in the area
Same story every year.
Bout that time fellers!
in our dreams wunderkid......the upper level environment, the lack of instability, just the overall dry environment means its a ghost model. It sure would be nice though to cool things off and get some badly needed rain it looks dry out there even with some showers yesterday you cant tell at all.
Quoting 31. wunderkidcayman:



Well I'd wait and see if we can get this on model runs for the next few day to week or so and the kinks can be fixed then we may legitimately have something

I've noticed GFS has been hinting on some sort of tropical activity in the area for the last few days
Also it is that time of year that we may get a tropical system in the area
Should be very interesting to see how the atmosphere handles the sharp turn from record El-Nino to perhaps a solid La-Nina by mid to late Summer. That's a huge SST switch going on world wide and that sets up the parameters for some potentially epic climate extremes again this year. As we're already seeing. Atlantic basin, Caribbean, and Gulf could over perform I think. Would not be surprised to see the shear through the Caribbean be abruptly cut off at some point in late May or early June. Cape Verde's may have their long track window open this year. Canada, Alaska, Greenland, and the Arctic in general are being rapidly fundamentally changed in ways that can't be undone. Heat transfer last two years northward through these regions by our new jet stream has been something we've never seen before and these jet stream irregularities have caused similar extremes all around the world.
Given that the prediction of track and intensity of a hurricane is governed by chaotic processes, is there a theoretical calculated limit that we can determine the track of a hurricane with any degree of certainty at any point in time?

Something similar as presented in this paper: Kieu, C., and Z. Moon, 2016: Hurricane Intensity Predictability. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00168.1, in press.

In which the authors postulate that at >= 96 hrs the inherent error of predicting the intensity of a hurricane cannot be reduced below ~ 8 m/s (15.5 knots] due to the inherent chaos of the system. This is essentially where the 2015 HWRF is currently operating.

Those of you qualified (I am not) to criticize any aspect of the paper, would love to get feedback on it. Can WUmail me.

Is there some inherent limit to the forecast error at any point in time in which, simply due to the chaotic nature of the system, further improvement theoretically is not possible?

Yeah, I am posing this question for the big guys of the blog.

Edit: corrected >= 72 hrs to >= 96 hrs, as this is actually what the authors postulate
Quoting 37. daddyjames:

Given that the prediction of track and intensity of a hurricane is governed by chaotic processes, is there a theoretical calculated limit that we can determine the track of a hurricane with any degree of certainty at any point in time?

Something similar as presented in this paper: Kieu, C., and Z. Moon, 2016: Hurricane Intensity Predictability. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00168.1, in press.

In which the authors postulate that at >= 72 hrs the inherent error of predicting the intensity of a hurricane cannot be reduced below ~ 8 m/s (15.5 knots] due to the inherent chaos of the system. This is essentially where the 2015 HWRF is currently operating.

Those of you qualified (I am not) to criticize any aspect of the paper, would love to get feedback on it. Can WUmail me.

Is there some inherent limit to the forecast error at any point in time in which, simply due to the chaotic nature of the system, further improvement theoretically is not possible?

Yeah, I am posing this question for the big guys of the blog.




I mean there will always be a "limit" and that is for the simple fact that the term "chaos" just means there are an infinite amount of variables that affect hurricanes and you can not theoretically model every one. Now in the future when technology gets better and processing power gets better, with the inclusion of quantum computers, there will probably be a point where everything we can't model would have such a minuscule effect on a storms strength that it will seem like our predictions are 100% accurate.
39. IDTH
Quoting 5. washingtonian115:

A blog related to hurricanes :)

We may need to watch the sw caribbean later this month.A lot more energy than normal down there.

It's been sleeping for far too long. It's got an unprecedented amount of energy than any year. The only question I have is, will this be another year where their is constant downward motion and the Caribbean is hostile and stable again or will it become much more unstable with much more upward motion. So far the ECMWF seems to think the earlier, rather than the latter.
Quoting 38. VAbeachhurricanes:



I mean there will always be a "limit" and that is for the simple fact that the term "chaos" just means there are an infinite amount of variables that affect hurricanes and you can not theoretically model every one. Now in the future when technology gets better and processing power gets better, with the inclusion of quantum computers, there will probably be a point where everything we can't model would have such a minuscule effect on a storms strength that it will seem like our predictions are 100% accurate.


Not necessarily correct. Chaos implies that the possible trajectories diverge such over time that beyond a certain period you cannot predict a specific event - because it is so dependent upon the initial variables..

For instance, forecasters can predict the probability of, lets say, increased precipitation for a particular region months in advance, but cannot predict with any degree of certainty that rain is actually going to fall on your house in that time frame.
Quoting 40. daddyjames:



Not necessarily correct. Chaos implies that the possible trajectories diverge such over time that beyond a certain period you cannot predict a specific event - because it is so dependent upon the initial variables..

For instance, forecasters can predict the probability of, lets say, increased precipitation for a particular region months in advance, but cannot predict with any degree of certainty that rain is actually going to fall on your house in that time frame.


But the only reason they can't predict that far in advance is because computer models can't handle that amount of information, I think the word chaos you are using is meaning to imply if "x" happens either "y" or "z" can happen and we don't know which. Is that correct?
Dr. Masters post is timely for us in Hurricane Alley in the North Atlantic and we have the same debate every year on the reliability of the different models but just noting a relevant difference between real-time models and longer-range models.  The improvements noted above are on the intensity models (and track models have also improved) with an actual storm but the suite of cyclo-genesis  (hope I spelled that right) models is the other side of the coin. Some do better than others in any given period and again we look at model consensus, in both cases, to try to see if they verify.  And there is always the occasional outlier; point being that cyclo-genesis is a real tough nut to crack in the long term and the GFS is currently an outlier.  Have to wait to see if other models jump on board and even then, it is often hit or miss this early in the pre-season.  It is also usually a very rare event when a system spins up essentially out of nowhere with no model support.
The models are not gospel as Dr. Masters has said on many occasions but model consensus is the industry custom for professional forecasters before they will issue an official forecast; that is the best that we (Humans) can currently do in terms of tropical systems and our reliance on the models.         
   
Quoting 31. wunderkidcayman:



Well I'd wait and see if we can get this on model runs for the next few day to week or so and the kinks can be fixed then we may legitimately have something

I've noticed GFS has been hinting on some sort of tropical activity in the area for the last few days
Also it is that time of year that we may get a tropical system in the area


The GFS often does this in May.

Much less often it verifies.
This is why, as time increases, the error in predicting landfall of a hurricane increases (as shown above in the blog).

What I am trying to determine is - theoretically - what the absolute minimum error may be.

Obviously since the hurricane center believes they can reduce the amount of error a certain amount - there are methods they are confident could potentially reduce the amount of error. But error would still be present - hence why they issue probabilities for landfalls and intensity forecasts. I am just curious as to what that theoretical limit may be - given the models used.
Quoting 40. daddyjames:



Not necessarily correct. Chaos implies that the possible trajectories diverge such over time that beyond a certain period you cannot predict a specific event - because it is so dependent upon the initial variables..

For instance, forecasters can predict the probability of, lets say, increased precipitation for a particular region months in advance, but cannot predict with any degree of certainty that rain is actually going to fall on your house in that time frame.
I believe "sensitivity to initial conditions" dictates the forecasting range of a model system. Therefore, as you get more precise and broader-based data on a chaotic system, it should be possible to more precisely specify the initial conditions as input to the models, and the results should be more reliable out to greater time. The key is collecting real-world data in detail and precision sufficient to extend the reach of the models, and build great enough computing power to handle the increase in data. Not a small order.
Quoting 41. VAbeachhurricanes:



But the only reason they can't predict that far in advance is because computer models can't handle that amount of information, I think the word chaos you are using is meaning to imply if "x" happens either "y" or "z" can happen and we don't know which. Is that correct?


Chaos theory basically says that, a given initial condition can have a tremendous effect on future events such that beyond a certain time that event is impossible to predict (more or less - feel free to correct me).
Essentially, a very small change in initial conditions can dramatically effect what occurs in the future - such that it is not predictable.
Quoting 44. daddyjames:

This is why, as time increases, the error in predicting landfall of a hurricane increases (as shown above in the blog).

What I am trying to determine is - theoretically - what the absolute minimum error be.

Obviously since the hurricane center believes they can reduce the amount of error a certain amount - there are methods they are confident could potentially reduce the amount of error. But error would still be present - hence why they issue probabilities for landfalls and intensity forecasts. I am just curious as to what that theoretical limit may be - given the models used.


The theoretical limit, physics wise, is a horizontal asymptote getting infinitely closer to zero but never reaching it.
FIRE HALTS EVACUEE CONVOY: A convoy of 1500 vehicles with evacuees from Fort McMurray has been stopped today because of huge flames near the highway. These evacuees had been stranded north of Fort McMurray.
49. SLU
Nice to see a purely weather-related post for once. :)
Quoting 45. CaneFreeCR:

I believe "sensitivity to initial conditions" dictates the forecasting range of a model system. Therefore, as you get more precise and broader-based data on a chaotic system, it should be possible to more precisely specify the initial conditions as input to the models, and the results should be more reliable out to greater time. The key is collecting real-world data in detail and precision sufficient to extend the reach of the models, and build great enough computing power to handle the increase in data. Not a small order.


That depends essentially what it is you are trying to predict. Again, the difference between predicting that a region will experience increased precipitation is vastly less complex than predicting it will rain on your head within a given period of time.

Because of the inherent chaos in the system, there will always be an inherent error associated with any estimation made, and there should be a theoretical bound for it - provided you can estimate.

From Wikipedia: Chaos theory
In chaotic systems, the uncertainty in a forecast increases exponentially with elapsed time.

The sensitivity of a system to the initial conditions can be determined, and the amount of divergence over time between different trajectories can be calculated. But there always will be a degree of uncertainty in any predictions made based upon the initial conditions.
This is one reason why forecasters employ Ensemble Models - they vary the initial conditions (input data) to determine what potentially could happen. The effect of varying the initial conditions can result in vastly different tracks - as we all have seen over the years. So there has to be a limit to what can be estimated theoretically given the inherent chaotic nature of the system, and the assumptions made in the particular model being used.
Quoting 43. georgevandenberghe:



The GFS often does this in May.

Much less often it verifies.


GFS does it every May and it's wrong just about every time.
Quoting 47. VAbeachhurricanes:



The theoretical limit, physics wise, is a horizontal asymptote getting infinitely closer to zero but never reaching it.


LOL - I was looking more for a value like +- 10 miles.
Quoting 43. georgevandenberghe:



The GFS often does this in May.

Much less often it verifies.


I hope the GFS doesn't do what it did last year about this time. It kept developing tropical cyclones in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico run after run beyond the 300 hour time frame. It did it for several weeks. None of the storms every verified.
GFS is all messed up in the long range in the Caribbean. In fact, while I think on the whole the Caribbean will be pretty favorable this year, I don't like our odds of anything forming there through mid-June at least. Which is perfectly normal of course. Taking a look at the ECMWF MJO forecast, it looks very unfavorable for the Caribbean. Tough to get early season developments there without the aid of the MJO. Judging by this, it likely won't arrive in our basin until well into June. I'll go with June 25 as our first storm formation date.

Current satellite estimate of the fire perimeter and hotspots from the previous 24 hours.

Hope that the convoy is in a safe spot . . .



Hopefully a better version.
Quoting 54. MAweatherboy1:

GFS is all messed up in the long range in the Caribbean. In fact, while I think on the whole the Caribbean will be pretty favorable this year, I don't like our odds of anything forming there through mid-June at least. Which is perfectly normal of course. Taking a look at the ECMWF MJO forecast, it looks very unfavorable for the Caribbean. Tough to get early season developments there without the aid of the MJO. Judging by this, it likely won't arrive in our basin until well into June. I'll go with June 25 as our first storm formation date.



Alex resents that prediction.

Maybe the biggest reality this year may be if we get a La-Nina by peak season then trades should be conducive by late August and the Caribbean is primed to support a possible monster. SST's still in rapid flux in the Atlantic, so that'll be interesting to see how they turn out to be by mid June. This kind of a rapid flip is going to have some big surprises in store. Where will they play out around the world? Worry this could bode very badly for Haiti/D.R. "Could" set up for even southern Florida to be under threat for a major landfall this year. Captain Trough, Florida's superhero, has been coming through for the state for a long time now. Think we could see a rapid flip honestly to a moderate to strong La-Nina and have a hyper peak season. Hope not. Safe bet these days though is to expect the unexpected.
Sprinkling here again, nothing measurable yet. These are 6 hour numbers and most of the rain is sliding to the South of here. Note: Clark on this map is Southern Riverside near March ARB and they had a cell over that way earlier.

And as we know on WU, it's never too early to Floridacast a storm.
62. SLU
It's that time of year again.

Poleward expansion of the tropics: There was a reason for a German to join a blog about (mostly) tropical weather ;-)

Expanding tropics pushing high altitude clouds towards poles, study finds
Science Daily, May 5, 2016, Source: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center
Summary: A previously observed trend of high altitude clouds in the mid-latitudes shifting toward the poles is caused primarily by the expansion of the tropics, a new NASA analysis of 30-years of satellite data suggests. ...
George Tselioudis, a climate scientist at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University in New York City, was interested in which air currents were shifting clouds at high altitude -- between about three and a half and six miles high -- toward the poles. ...
What they discovered was that the poleward shift of the clouds, which occurs in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, connected more strongly with the expansion of the tropics, defined by the general circulation Hadley cell, than with the movement of the jets. ...

Whole article see link above.

Quoting 43. georgevandenberghe:



The GFS often does this in May.

Much less often it verifies.


I know GFS does this sometimes
I'd say it verifies Half of the time


I do think we may just get that May system
Quoting 62. SLU:

It's that time of year again.




Yep but it might just happen too
Quoting 63. barbamz:

Poleward expansion of the tropics: There was a reason for a German to join a blog about (mostly) tropical weather ;-)

Expanding tropics pushing high altitude clouds towards poles, study finds
Science Daily, May 5, 2016, Source: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center
Summary: A previously observed trend of high altitude clouds in the mid-latitudes shifting toward the poles is caused primarily by the expansion of the tropics, a new NASA analysis of 30-years of satellite data suggests. ...
George Tselioudis, a climate scientist at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University in New York City, was interested in which air currents were shifting clouds at high altitude -- between about three and a half and six miles high -- toward the poles. ...
What they discovered was that the poleward shift of the clouds, which occurs in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, connected more strongly with the expansion of the tropics, defined by the general circulation Hadley cell, than with the movement of the jets. ...

Whole article see link above.



Back in February, Daniel Swain attributed the expansion of the Hadley cell as the key reason why this El Nino, unlike previous ones, rained hard further north along the US west coast, etc. see-> El Niño: It’s One For the Books — But Not Behaving As Expected
Quoting 55. Gearsts:



Very interesting and threatening, if this pans out. It was only yesterday that I wondered about a blob/disturbance at/off the coast of Somalia which might intensify.


Africa the last 24 hours (and notice the whole ITCZ moving north).


Precipitation more than 50mm 4 days out.
Quoting 60. DeepSeaRising:

And as we know on WU, it's never too early to Floridacast a storm.


I believe FL wishcasters are in the minority. I for one will gladly do without but will say I hate when a storm 200-300 miles to the east pulls down dry continental air from the north and hoses up the summertime rain pattern for several days.
Quoting 57. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Alex resents that prediction.




Yep

I think everything about this season may just be early and dangerous
Early first storm
Early waves
Early storm train
Early majors
High impactors
Low trackers
Caribstorms
Gulfstorms
Floridastorms
LAstorms
Bahamasstorms
Latinstorms
Cat5storms
Quoting 64. wunderkidcayman:



I know GFS does this sometimes
I'd say it verifies Half of the time


I do think we may just get that May system
Of course you do ;)
Everyone have a safe weather weekend and hoping for the best in the West and Plains on Sunday; it is that time of the year. I know we get excited about the prospects for the Atlantic Season (the US and Caribbean Bloggers) but we still have to get through the Spring Severe Weather season and into the E-Pac season starting next weekend before we get to July and August in the Atlantic.


Quoting 66. VibrantPlanet:


Back in February, Daniel Swain attributed the expansion of the Hadley cell as the key reason why this El Nino, unlike previous ones, rained hard further north along the US west coast, etc. see-> El Niño: It’s One For the Books — But Not Behaving As Expected

Very interesting. Thank you.
Quoting 67. barbamz:


Very interesting and threatening, if this pans out. It was only yesterday that I wondered about a blob/disturbance at/off the coast of Somalia which might intensify.


It is predicting "twin systems" in both hemispheres. Did not catch that before.
Quoting 35. 19N81W:

in our dreams wunderkid......the upper level environment, the lack of instability, just the overall dry environment means its a ghost model. It sure would be nice though to cool things off and get some badly needed rain it looks dry out there even with some showers yesterday you cant tell at all.


Seriously mate the lack of storms are getting to your head or something
You are such a downcaster

Upper level expected to become much better than what it is now
Actually Caribbean instability is running above average atm and will go up
It's currently not as dry as it was only about a month ago and I'd expect increase in moisture to continue as we get closer to time
Yes it could be a ghost but it could be that it isn't a ghost storm either... it's a wait and see game to be honest
Second Warmest Start to the Year on Record for U.S., Climate Central.org, May 6.
"The warmth this year so far in Alaska has been extraordinary," Crouch said. "The record warm April really was an exclamation point on the first four months of 2016." Temperatures for the next three months are expected to continue to be above average in Alaska, according to NOAA seasonal forecasts. "A drastic pattern change would have to occur for the state to drop from the record warm levels," Crouch said. Those same forecasts also put greater odds on warmer-than-normal temperatures across a large horseshoe-shaped swath of the country stretching from coast to coast and across the northern tier of the central U.S.

* "You know how you know climate change is real? When the hottest year on record is whatever year it currently is."
Quoting 54. MAweatherboy1:

GFS is all messed up in the long range in the Caribbean. In fact, while I think on the whole the Caribbean will be pretty favorable this year, I don't like our odds of anything forming there through mid-June at least. Which is perfectly normal of course. Taking a look at the ECMWF MJO forecast, it looks very unfavorable for the Caribbean. Tough to get early season developments there without the aid of the MJO. Judging by this, it likely won't arrive in our basin until well into June. I'll go with June 25 as our first storm formation date.




You mean second storm formation date? :P
Quoting 73. daddyjames:


It is predicting "twin systems" in both hemispheres. Did not catch that before.

Yes, weird. But the stronger northern one - if it realizes - may have an unlucky impact on the monsoon in India. Last year tropical storm Ashooba in the first third of June deprived the northern Indian Ocean of its moisture and pushed it into Oman, delaying the start of the monsoon in India. More see wiki. This year with the extreme heatwave in India a similar development would be even more grave, I guess. Depends on the track of the storm, of course. It might as well go into Pakistan and northwestern India.

Edit/Addition:
Much-anticipated monsoon may not solve India's drought crisis
By Juliet Perry and Huizhong Wu, CNN, Updated 0011 GMT (0811 HKT) May 6, 2016
India's killer heatwave is leaving the country reeling from the worst drought in decades and a rural population struggling to survive.
Relief is due with the arrival of the monsoon in mid-June, and because of the impending La Nina weather pattern, the forecast is for above-average rainfall.
However WaterAid India's Head of Policy, Nitya Jacob, says groundwater levels are so depleted that even if a good monsoon comes in June -- and meteorologists predict there will be one that ends the drought -- it won't be enough.
"Even if the monsoon is good, it cannot compensate," Jacob told CNN.
Central Water Commission data shows that India's major reservoirs are 79% empty, and 75% of India's basins are holding less water than the 10-year average. ....
Convoy leads Canada fire evacuees through burning city to safety
Reuters, Fri May 6, 2016 5:25pm EDT
A convoy of evacuees from the Canadian oil hub of Fort McMurray made its way on Friday through the heart of an out-of-control wildfire on the only highway out of the region, passing through the burned ruins of the city. ...

How forest management helps lay the conditions for wildfires
As flames rip through Alberta, we look at how putting out small fires can help to fuel increasingly catastrophic events as our climate gets hotter and drier
The Guardian, Friday 6 May 2016 16.02 BST

There's more to Fort McMurray than oil sands - it's a real community
Raging wildfires have brought an ill-informed focus on this quintessentially Canadian place, which had a character long before the extraction plants
Aritha van Herk, The Guardian, May 6, 2016

Oilsands production cuts forced by Fort McMurray fire will slash Canada's growth to nothing in second quarter: BMO
Fergal Smith, Reuters | May 6, 2016 12:16 PM ET
Quoting 69. wunderkidcayman:



Yep

I think everything about this season may just be early and dangerous
Early first storm
Early waves
Early storm train
Early majors
High impactors
Low trackers
Caribstorms
Gulfstorms
Floridastorms
LAstorms
Bahamasstorms
Latinstorms
Cat5storms

We know you do.
"..attempting to ring doorbell..."

see, we got manners down here in the south, I don't care who (or what) you are - -
we all ready had are 1st storm and 1st hurricane of the season so the next name storm on the list will be the 2nd named storm of the season so you can cross out the 1st name of the list
GFS is hinting at a fabulous torch-like feature going all the way up from North California to the Kara Sea, remaining late into next week. High temps coming over South Greenland too, but what's worrying is that sea ice in the Beaufort Sea is already taking a beating with huge cracks having formed there in the last days. Arctic sea ice stats are already catastrophic at this point. I hope the GFS is overdoing it. It will be interesting to watch.
With some more amazing science news a good night from Germany which is currently the center of early summerly warmth in Europe (one week earlier we've been the cold spot) - so a very bright and warm (but not yet hot) weekend is ahead of us :-)

Study offers clues to better rainfall predictions
PhysOrg, May 6, 2016
The saltiness, or salinity, of seawater depends largely on how much moisture is pulled into the air as evaporative winds sweep over the ocean. But pinpointing where the moisture rains back down is a complicated question scientists have long contended with.
Now, scientists at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) have found a potential path to better seasonal rainfall predictions. Their study, which is published in the May 6, 2016 issue of Science Advances, shows a clear link between higher sea surface salinity levels in the North Atlantic Ocean and increased rainfall on land in the African Sahel, the area between the Sahara Desert and the savannah across Central Africa. ...
The original idea behind the study traces back to 1993 during the Mississippi and Missouri River floods, when Li's advisor, WHOI senior scientist Ray Schmitt, noticed reports of abnormally low salinity in the Gulf of Mexico following the seven-month dousing of the region. "A lot of freshwater had to leave the ocean during that time to supply the extra rainfall on land, so some part of the ocean had to get saltier," said Schmitt. ...

Whole article see link above.

Scientists track Greenland's ice melt with seismic waves
PhysOrg, May 6, 2016
Quoting 78. barbamz:

Convoy leads Canada fire evacuees through burning city to safety
Reuters, Fri May 6, 2016 5:25pm EDT
A convoy of evacuees from the Canadian oil hub of Fort McMurray made its way on Friday through the heart of an out-of-control wildfire on the only highway out of the region, passing through the burned ruins of the city. ...

How forest management helps lay the conditions for wildfires
As flames rip through Alberta, we look at how putting out small fires can help to fuel increasingly catastrophic events as our climate gets hotter and drier
The Guardian, Friday 6 May 2016 16.02 BST

There's more to Fort McMurray than oil sands - it's a real community
Raging wildfires have brought an ill-informed focus on this quintessentially Canadian place, which had a character long before the extraction plants
Aritha van Herk, The Guardian, May 6, 2016

Oilsands production cuts forced by Fort McMurray fire will slash Canada's growth to nothing in second quarter: BMO
Fergal Smith, Reuters | May 6, 2016 12:16 PM ET


BBC news is saying that the Convoy was abandoned, due to the dangers.
200' walls of flame made it too risky.
Not sure what will happen next.
Quoting 84. 999Ai2016:

GFS is hinting at a fabulous torch-like feature going all the way up from North California to the Kara Sea, remaining late into next week. High temps coming over South Greenland too, but what's worrying is that sea ice in the Beaufort Sea is already taking a beating with huge cracks having formed there in the last days. Arctic sea ice stats are already catastrophic at this point. I hope the GFS is overdoing it. It will be interesting to watch.

Try this link, it shows ice cover for the 5th of May along with other things but I cant paste the charts in for some reason.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Link

Tip the melting iceberg for a lot of records coming probably this year.
All we need now is plenty of "Rain" over the Artic ice and it will be a blue ocean up there
Quoting 86. pottery:


BBC news is saying that the Convoy was abandoned, due to the dangers.
200' walls of flame made it too risky.
Not sure what will happen next.

Thank you, Pottery. Conditions obviously are difficult: LIVE BLOG: Fort McMurray fire updates

BTW, detail from this BBC article:
The BBC's James Cook, who is in Alberta, says that officials now fear that an oil facility near the flames could explode.
Quoting 57. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Alex resents that prediction.



Lol, totally forgot. And for a second I couldn't even figure out what you meant. Yes, I'll make June 25 our second storm formation date.
Quoting 64. wunderkidcayman:



I know GFS does this sometimes
I'd say it verifies Half of the time


I do think we may just get that May system


You are being way generous with half of the time. Probably more like 5% of the time.
If this were over water I'd say we have a subtropical storm forming. It's keeping the whole northeast cold and rainy.

Raining again here and the ceel that just flooded Ontario is coming in right behind it, I'll this car washed yet. May need an extra sandbag though.
95. bwi
Blah cold and rainy nearly two weeks now in Washington DC.

It's 8 degrees warmer here than in DC at this hour (Norman Wells, Northwest Territories, Canada) which is at like 65 north lattitude!

Live image of the Athabasca River. Camera at the Water Treatment Plant; town of Wood Buffalo. Alberta, Canada fire #ymmfire #ymm

http://www.rmwb.ca/Municipal-Government/municipal _departments/Emergency-Services---Law-Enforcement/ Emergency-Management/Preparing-for-an-Emergency/Ri ver-Breakup/River-Break-Camera.htm
Quoting 96. Alagirl:

Live image of the Athabasca River. Camera at the Water Treatment Plant; town of Wood Buffalo. Alberta, Canada fire #ymmfire #ymm
- Live Image (Click for Direct Link)
I guess it works better with the "link" function ;-) Quite impressive live feed though.
(from CNN) How big is the Alberta Fire?

(99. Alagirl, when I copy paste most links, like PedleyCA I get spaces between some characters. Now I know the trick, but I used to get puzzled by this stuff before I knew the blog better, wondering what's with that link, you know.)

Quoting 97. 999Ai2016:

- Live Image (Click for Direct Link)
I guess it works better with the "link" function ;-)
Yes, it does, I found 3 spaces in that one. Finally got it to work. Some us can't use the link function as it doesn't work here anymore...
.
Quoting 98. PedleyCA:


Yes, it does, I found 3 spaces in that one. Finally got it to work. Some us can't use the link function as it doesn't work here anymore...

I see what you mean, now. I rarely post here. Sorry, and you're welcome.
There were trucks traveling across that bridge a few minutes ago. Now it is shrouded in thick smoke. I wouldn't want to be crossing it now. I've seen helos carrying water buckets fly by, too.

Quoting 100. Alagirl:

I see what you mean, now. I rarely post here. Sorry, and you're welcome.
Better to post it using the link thing if you can as this site will trash anything you cut and paste.
Link
Try this. It takes you to the page where the cam is embedded (I hope.) Wanted to try again to try the link function.
:o)
.
Quoting 95. bwi:

Blah cold and rainy nearly two weeks now in Washington DC.

It's 8 degrees warmer here than in DC at this hour (Norman Wells, Northwest Territories, Canada) which is at like 65 north lattitude!

yes the grounds are warming nicely
lots of perma disappearing
u could say triple of what melted last melt season
methane madness soon I am afraid
Coverage of Alberta fire by CBC/Edmonton

Link
Quoting 103. Alagirl:

Link
Try this. It takes you to the page where the cam is embedded (I hope.) Wanted to try again to try the link function.
:o)
I think I just saw a couple of hot embers blow by
One sentence from the article sums it all, in terms of things being totally out of control there : "With the nature of this fire and the dangerous conditions we have, no size of firebreak would hold this fire from doing anything. This fire jumped the Athabasca River, which is over a kilometre wide." Chad Morrison, senior wildfire manager for the province. He also said "With the temperature expected to hit 27 C Saturday, the fire could double in size by the end of the day"...
I hope everyone in the path of this monster has already been taken care of, I've read other reports about how some people refused to leave the city yesterday. Apparently, one person's been killed during the evac near Fort Murray in a car accident.
Canada wildfire "could double in size on Saturday", May 7th, iTV.com.
Quoting 107. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I think I just saw a couple of hot embers blow by


I saw an eagle fly past close to the camera not long before it was enshrouded in smoke. My dad was a forest ranger (in Alabama) and he used to bring home forest fire orphans; the animals don't survive this sort of fire. They can't outrun this one, but here's hoping the eagle kept flying.
I watched an interview with a forester there yesterday, who said there is nothing to stop it from burning into Sasketchewan. No rain, little humidity, lots of coniferous fuel, and windy conditions is an apocalyptic recipe.
Quoting 108. 999Ai2016:

One sentence from the article sums it all, in terms of things being totally out of control there : "With the nature of this fire and the dangerous conditions we have, no size of firebreak would hold this fire from doing anything. This fire jumped the Athabasca River, which is over a kilometre wide." Chad Morrison, senior wildfire manager for the province. He also said "With the temperature expected to hit 27 C Saturday, the fire could double in size by the end of the day"...
I hope everyone in the path of this monster has already been taken care of, I've read other reports about how some people refused to leave the city yesterday. Apparently, one person's been killed during the evac near Fort Murray in a car accident.
Why you should evacuate . . .

Couple watches house burn from smartphone after fleeing Fort McMurray blaze

Really amazing how intense the fire was.
Seems our rainy season has begun with a bang -- the past 2-1/2 hours or so it has rained at a rate of about an inch an hour. Some contrast! It was basically bone dry for the past week.
Quoting 105. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


yes the grounds are warming nicely
lots of perma disappearing
u could say triple of what melted last melt season
methane madness soon I am afraid
we are now into accelerated global warming
after which runaway global warming begins


More than the forecast at the Airport(KRAL) and about what was forecast at Indian Hills. Got my car washed too, kind of..
Quoting 64. wunderkidcayman:



I know GFS does this sometimes
I'd say it verifies Half of the time


I do think we may just get that May system


And... it's easy to guess where it would head ;)
Quoting 114. PedleyCA:



More than the forecast at the Airport(KRAL) and about what was forecast at Indian Hills. Got my car washed too, kind of..



See that there is street flooding in Ontario, CA.

Quoting 116. daddyjames:



See that there is street flooding in Ontario, CA.
That Cell didn't make it over here, or it would have been real ugly... I was monitoring that one closely.
T-24 DAYS
Quoting 117. PedleyCA:


That Cell didn't make it over here, or it would have been real ugly... I was monitoring that one closely.



I watched as the people were driving through it - can tell that it is not necessarily something they are used to doing by the way they were driving.
Thanks for the story.
I was at the TPC/NHC in Miami and made an interesting observation about storm accuracy in forecasts. The data is based on a moving storm. If however, the storm slows or stops, all models go crazy. Just like a boat on the ocean. You get a basic idea of direction based on course and speed. If the boat stops, it will drift and could move in any one of 360 directions.
Even the best supercomputer and data will not get these storms right.
"The fire in Canada looks a lot like climate change -- and that should scare you"

"This is an example of what we expect -- and consistent with what we expect for climate change," said Mike Flannigan, a professor of wildland fire at the University of Alberta who's been studying climate change and wildfire for decades. ...

It's impossible for scientists to say global warming caused this specific fire, of course, but polluting the atmosphere is creating conditions that make such disasters more likely, bigger and costlier."
Quoting 64. wunderkidcayman:



I know GFS does this sometimes
I'd say it verifies Half of the time


I do think we may just get that May system


I knew this smelled like bs, so I did the math -- lo and behold, it was. Let's assume you started forecasting in 2009... your join date. If you didn't, narrowing it down to this still makes it easier because it condenses it (not to mention you still wouldn't find support for your claim even if we went further back), so we're gonna go with that. There have been 7 hurricane seasons since you joined, if you include 2009; not one of those years was there ever even a single May storm in the western Caribbean. Ergo, it's not half at all. Stop using memory as empirical.

Game. Set. Match.
Not looking good for tomorrow in Ft McMurray.

Fort McMurray Wildfire Threatens to Double to Half a Million Acres; Thousands Moving South in Coordinated Evacuation Convoy

Now, I'm not saying that this is an act of God, and I'm not saying that it's even karma. I wouldn't know those things. I'm definitely not saying that anyone deserves what's happening to the people who have (or had) lives up there. But with all that said, there is a certain undeniable element of irony here, as Ft McMurray surely represents the forefront of humanity's push to extract every last drop of oil from the Earth, at any cost.

Witness, refineries at the edge of the tar pits:


and the Alberta Oil Sands, themselves:






Not a very pretty sight. And now it's even more hellish.
The WRF-NMMB and WRF-ARW are in unanimous agreement for a long-tracked, significant supercell tracking across Central Oklahoma on Sunday evening. It's rare to see such little divergence for storm strength/motion, but it's important to note that these two models nailed the supercell that produced the tornado near Ninnekah on Tuesday.


126. bwi
Good morning. Have a little look at that impressive low named "Xandrea" in the East Atlantic. The system is about to bring lots of rain to Portugal and Spain (f.e. to our PlazaRed) the next days. Meanwhile Germany is enjoying the sunshine of high "Peter".


Airmass pic of 11 am local time.



Unsettled weather along the north African coast of the Mediterranean. Here a video of a tornado yesterday in Algeria:


More see Meteo Algerie (facebook).
I know of several Emergency Managers who setup PWS's on the hood of their vehicles during events, planned and unplanned, their a great asset, and have the telemetry to send their information to a base station.
cocorahs stations help too!
The great Wisconsin fire.

he most devastating fire in United States history is ignited in Wisconsin on this day in 1871. Over the course of the next day, 1,200 people lost their lives and 2 billion trees were consumed by flames. Despite the massive scale of the blaze, it was overshadowed by the Great Chicago Fire, which began the next day about 250 miles away.

Peshtigo, Wisconsin, was a company lumber and sawmill town owned by William Ogden that was home to what was then one of the largest wood-products factories in the United States. The summer of 1871 was particularly dry across the northern Midwest. Still, settlers continued to set fires, using the “slash and burn” method to create new farmland and, in the process, making the risk of forest fire substantial. In fact, the month before had seen significant fires burn from Canada to Iowa.

Peshtigo, like many Midwestern towns, was highly vulnerable to fire. Nearly every structure in town was a timber-framed building–prime fuel for a fire. In addition, the roads in and out of town were covered with saw dust and a key bridge was made of wood. This would allow a fire from outside the town to easily spread to Peshtigo and make escaping from a fire in the town difficult. On September 23, the town had stockpiled a large supply of water in case a nearby fire headed in Peshtigo’s direction. Still, they were not prepared for the size and speed of the October 7 blaze.

The blaze began at an unknown spot in the dense Wisconsin forest. It first spread to the small village of Sugar Bush, where every resident was killed. High winds then sent the 200-foot flames racing northeast toward the neighboring community of Peshtigo. Temperatures reached 2,000 degrees Fahrenheit, causing trees to literally explode in the flames.

On October 8, the fire reached Peshtigo without warning. Two hundred people died in a single tavern. Others fled to a nearby river, where several people died from drowning. Three people who sought refuge in a water tank boiled to death when the fire heated the tank. A mass grave of nearly 350 people was established because extensive burns made it impossible to identify the bodies.

Despite the fact that this was the worst fire in American history, newspaper headlines on subsequent days were dominated by the story of another devastating, though smaller, blaze: the Great Chicago Fire. Another fire in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula that consumed 2 million acres was an even smaller footnote in the next day’s papers.
Quoting 12. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Sunday evening looks potentially dangerous across the Central Plains/South Plains as a potent upper-level trough ejects eastward. Although moisture availability is a concern tomorrow, dewpoints into the low to mid-60s should overspread the warm sector, while ample destabilization should yield 2000-3000j/kg of SBCAPE. Compared to last Tuesday, mid-level winds are much less meridonal; this should limit veer-back-veer wind profiles and favor supercellular storms over line segments. Low-level shear is also more impressive Sunday compared to Tuesday; this should yield higher storm relative helicity and increase the chances for a few strong tornadoes.

It's interesting to watch the element of human psychology play into forecasts. I have heard very little hype surrounding Sunday, which looks much better than last Tuesday did 3 days in advance, when the SPC was warning of a severe weather outbreak with strong tornadoes. Seeing as though modelling is mostly in agreement, the lack of stronger wording can likely be attributed to the fear of another bust.




Yeah your right, here is the latest from the SPC, I'll be watching, and your right, I hope ego's aren't part of the issue here!

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS INCLUDES THE RISK FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

...SYNOPSIS...
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT WESTERLIES EMANATING FROM THE
MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC...MODELS INDICATE THAT A SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OR REDEVELOP EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD.
THIS MAY OCCUR BOTH IN RESPONSE TO THE CONTINUING PROGRESSION OF A
NUMBER OF SMALLER-SCALE PERTURBATION AROUND ITS SOUTHERN/EASTERN
PERIPHERY...AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS NORTHERN BRANCH
IMPULSE FORECAST TO DIG TOWARD THE NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES.

IN RESPONSE TO THESE DEVELOPMENTS MODELS INDICATE THAT A SURFACE
CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SLOWLY MIGRATING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN MORE SUBSTANTIVE MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY INITIALLY
BE FAIRLY MODEST...BUT PROBABLY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LOWER TO
MID 60S. BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...PARTICULARLY ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING SPREADING EAST OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORM
Smoke from Alberta Wildfire Reaches Florida
Posted by Dan Satterfield, 6 May 2016
133. elioe
Tropical activity ahead?



Previous run was not so kind to Yemen, showing a third landfall within one year.

Well maybe but we just got our hurricane insurance quote and its 30% less than last year which was 30% less than the year before. The Caribbean is in a bad way. It's become an increasing problem and increasingly arid not to mention hot. Everyday you open your blinds you see it. The climate is changing here and everywhere. You will not see a storm here or anywhere near here for many years. Rain if we are lucky. i have even started to notice older larger trees starting to die off here like they are in California. Unless the upper level environment changes dramatically soon it's going to be one hellish of a summer.
Quoting 74. wunderkidcayman:



Seriously mate the lack of storms are getting to your head or something
You are such a downcaster

Upper level expected to become much better than what it is now
Actually Caribbean instability is running above average atm and will go up
It's currently not as dry as it was only about a month ago and I'd expect increase in moisture to continue as we get closer to time
Yes it could be a ghost but it could be that it isn't a ghost storm either... it's a wait and see game to be honest
Quoting 132. barbamz:

Smoke from Alberta Wildfire Reaches Florida
Posted by Dan Satterfield, 6 May 2016

:-O A boomerang's picture comes to my mind... Either no one deserves that or everyones deserves it, it's the same (... not to mention that there are traders making money out of the oil price surge, because of reduced supply from Alberta right now).
"The fire, which has burned at least 325 square miles, forcing the evacuation of some 88,000 people, is so hot and so intense that's it's formed its own weather. The thundercloud produced by the blaze actually is creating its own lightning, and consequently spreading the fire's rage, setting more trees alight." The fire in Canada looks a lot like climate change -- and that should scare you (from .122 Bappit) <-- Excellent piece of journalism in my opinion. The writer's not afraid to write the truth about this freak climate show.
In my 4.5 years here, I've never seen a trough - a synoptic chart frontal line - stationary in this case - extend down almost to the western/northern border of Panama with Costa Rica. And the eastern Pacific monsoon trough shows as extending slightly north of it.

Any of you serious meteorology and climatology wizards know what this means? Is it truly unusual? Is the pattern part of the huge trough/omega block that is facilitating the Fort McMurray wildfire? (Ft. McMurray is 48° latitude north of my location and a straight line distance of 3,654 miles or 5,880km away.)



Cool (69°F), cloudy and gusty winds in Boquete this morning at 8:20am. After four much drier than normal years during the time since I retired here, we've had 6.06" of rain so far this month. The rainy season is off to a very good start in 2016.

Source Twitter. Le Devoir Verifizierter Account @LeDevoir 11 Min. Vor 11 Minuten
L'incendie de #FortMcMurray dans l'oeil de Garnotte... #ymm #ymmfire #Alberta
El Nino is taking it's time to go away.



Ego-based forecasts from SPC forecasters would surprise me. At least the ones I've met. If anything, maybe an edict came down from the upper-mucks not to OVER-forecast. haha This would lead to more iffy. Case in point, an iffy from NWS Norman today. (Excerpt below in caps. )Probably it's a case of the state of weather models not being able to consistently model severe parameters. Low level moisture is in question for tomorrow.

NOT SURE IF SIGNFICANT TORNADOES WILL OCCUR WHICH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE QUALITY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S. IF SURFACE DEWPOINTS GET INTO THE UPPER 60S...STRONG TORNADO POTENTIAL WOULD INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. STORMS MAY TRY TO ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES DURING THE EVENING WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL...THOUGH NOT SURE THIS WILL HAPPEN.

As always, we'll see.
Good day!

It's an 85, feeling like 95, partly cloudy day here on the island this morning. Seems it's Puerto Rico and the British Virgin Islands that are rocking and rolling with earthquakes these last few days (with us in the middle), 2.6 to 4.1.

My thoughts and prayers to everyone in Alberta, to those directly affected by loss of homes and businesses, to the ones fighting what must feel is a losing battle, and to the volunteers working so tirelessly to help those in need.

Hope all is well with everybody

Lindy

(PS After all was said and done with the adult parade last weekend, the soaking we went through (5 hours of rain), our troop won our category!
Quoting 136. Xulonn:

In my 4.5 years here, I've never seen a trough - a synoptic chart frontal line - stationary in this case - extend down almost to the western/northern border of Panama with Costa Rica. And the eastern Pacific monsoon trough shows as extending slightly north of it.

Any of you serious meteorology and climatology wizards know what this means? Is it truly unusual? Is the pattern part of the huge trough/omega block that is facilitating the Fort McMurray wildfire? (Ft. McMurray is 48 latitude north of my location and a straight line distance of 3,654 miles or 5,880km away.)



Cool (69F), cloudy and gusty winds in Boquete this morning at 8:20am. After four much drier than normal years during the time since I retired here, we've had 6.06" of rain so far this month. The rainy season is off to a very good start in 2016.

No wizard. My gift is not that of wizardy. Just a post to mention this: On the 0700 cdt North American surface map from NWS WPC, I don't see that same stationary front extending southwestward through the Caribbean to your area . Of course, all the atmosphere moves as One, so there is a connection, just not a connection noticeable on current scientific analysis.


Not strange at all how one part of the atmosphere balances another, or how nature balances dry years with wet... eventually... and on Nature's terms, not mankind's.
Canada fires are already having a big signature, in terms of CO surface concentrations and Sulfur Dioxide surface mass over Fort Mc Murray's area (could also reflect the oil sands facilities gas emissions ?) as shown today on *** Earth.nullschool.net *** (chem. section). Temp anomalies to remain positive in the next days there according to the GFS model. A perfect storm this is. Definitely. At that point, let's hope some unpredicted deluge, from the Pyrocumuluses or whatever materializes soon.

"Greg Pardy, an analyst with RBC Capital Markets, said that as much as 1 million barrels a day of oil may be offline, based on oil company announcements. That's just over a third of Canada's total oil sands output".
You could say that's nature's judo : throwing back at us the extra energy we put into the system.
- Fort McMurray fire interactive map: NASA data shows fire invading town (Updated on May 6)
- NASA Earth Observatory's image of the day : Heat Fuels Fire at Fort McMurray (May 7, 2016)
The Fort McMurray fire is up to 387,000 acres, or a bit over 600 square miles. It's expected to grow considerably today. Fort McMurray airport (YMM) is safe, though still unfortunately closed due to severely limited visibility:



Anyone browsing Twitter or other fora will see literally hundreds of comments complaining that now is not the time to discuss whether climate change played a hand in the current fire. That's the same thing many firearm enthusiasts say about gun control after any mass shooting, and is about equal to telling your spouse who's just caught you cheating on him/her that your marriage is in need of healing, so now is not the time to discuss your marital infidelity.

To that end, Eric Holthaus over at Slate has a great article out:

We Need to Talk About Climate Change; Tragedies like the Fort McMurray fire make it more important, not less.

"Fire is a natural part of the boreal ecosystem, but what's happening in Fort McMurray isn't natural. A messy mix of factors--including inadequate forestry management practices, rapid encroachment of the urban area into the surrounding environment, a particularly stagnant weather pattern, a record-strength El Nino, and human-caused climate change--all aligned to turn this fire into this continuously unfolding tragedy. And it's that last factor--climate change--that has spawned a commentary firestorm of its own this week.

"Many people have expressed outrage at the fact that climate change is being mentioned as a contributing cause to this fire. It is 'insensitive' to the victims to bring up something so political at a time like this, they argue.

"I want to be clear: Talking about climate change during an ongoing disaster like Fort McMurray is absolutely necessary. There is a sensitive way to do it, one that acknowledges what the victims are going through and does not blame them for these difficulties. But adding scientific context helps inform our response and helps us figure out how something so horrific could have happened. We've reached an era where all weather events bear at least a slight human fingerprint, which, as Elizabeth Kolbert points out in the New Yorker, means 'we've all contributed to the latest inferno.' That's a scientific fact. We need to talk about what we want to do with that information. Since climate change is such a pressing global problem, there's no better time to have that conversation than now--when we can see what exactly inaction might continue to cause."

Source: Slate Magazine

Current satellite estimation of the Ft. McMurray fire perimeter with hotspots for the past 24 hours indicated.
The "island" of the city probably reflects the Herculean efforts of the firefighters - who at one point resorted to aerial bombardments of the downtown to prevent it from being engulfed in flames.

The United States has a little over nine times the population of Canada. Proportionally-speaking, then, moving, sheltering, and feeding the 88,000 residents of Fort McMurray would be like the US doing the same for 792,000 people. IOW, that would be like relocation and taking care of tens of thousands more than there are in the cities of Denver, or Seattle, or Memphis, or Washington DC, or Baltimore, or Nashville, or Las Vegas...

They could probably use a little help...
BBC - Canada's Fort McMurray wildfire 'to double in size'

There is also concern about oil facilities, particularly near Nexen's Long Lake oil extraction site.
"We're looking at a blast area of about 14 kilometres [sic?] if that plant were to go," said Sgt Jack Poitras.

****
Nexen Long Lake:

Is the love of money worth what we're doing to our planet, to each other? We are beginning to see more than a slow uptick in global warming, it's an explosion of extreme events on the ever increase worldwide. Jeff and Bob could not articulate this dire situation any better, and yet it's way way down the list of things Americans are truly concerned about. What we are witnessing in Canada at Ft. McMurray is not normal, this is a historical event. Canada's in big trouble this year. And last year was one of the worst fire seasons they had ever had too.
An animation of satellite estimates of the Ft. McMurray fire perimeter and hotspots from May 2-7.


2016, the Year the Human induced AGW forcing's strikes back at us all.


Dry line firing off across Texas extending up into Kansas tomorrow.
Syncrude shuts down oilsands plant north of Fort McMurray as smoke moves in
Updated: May 7, 2016 11:55 am
EDMONTON – Syncrude shutdown operations at its Mildred Lake site Saturday morning after smoke moved into the area.
The company tweeted it made the decision to ensure the safety of workers and the integrity of its operations. ...
I wonder if "blasts" could be used to destroy fuel for the fire? Backfiring on a huge scale...
Quoting 146. no1der:

BBC - Canada's Fort McMurray wildfire 'to double in size'

There is also concern about oil facilities, particularly near Nexen's Long Lake oil extraction site.
"We're looking at a blast area of about 14 kilometres [sic?] if that plant were to go," said Sgt Jack Poitras.

****
Nexen Long Lake:


Quoting 153. Alagirl:

I wonder if "blasts" could be used to destroy fuel for the fire? Backfiring on a huge scale...


Maybe if the fire were smaller in scale - yes. But the western edge of the fire perimeter now stretches 20 kilometers. The northeastern part - moving away from downtown - is about 10 km. No effort could contain, it much less put it out, only thing is to try and redirect it from causing significant property losses. It is just too darn big to be able to fight at the moment.

As the fire officials pointed out yesterday, it jumped a river 1 km wide. There was absolutely nothing they could do to stop the fire.

Edited: grammar sucked
Quoting 139. Barefootontherocks:

Ego-based forecasts from SPC forecasters would surprise me. At least the ones I've met. If anything, maybe an edict came down from the upper-mucks not to OVER-forecast. haha This would lead to more iffy. Case in point, an iffy from NWS Norman today. (Excerpt below in caps. )Probably it's a case of the state of weather models not being able to consistently model severe parameters. Low level moisture is in question for tomorrow.

NOT SURE IF SIGNFICANT TORNADOES WILL OCCUR WHICH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE QUALITY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S. IF SURFACE DEWPOINTS GET INTO THE UPPER 60S...STRONG TORNADO POTENTIAL WOULD INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. STORMS MAY TRY TO ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES DURING THE EVENING WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL...THOUGH NOT SURE THIS WILL HAPPEN.

As always, we'll see.

Low 60s dew points are not inhibitors for strong tornadoes, not sure what they're talking about.
Looks like the GFS will be getting an upgrade on the 11th.
I rarely 'plus' comments here and even more rarely feel the need to write my own comment.
Today is different thanks to Patrap, daddyjames, DeepSeaRising, no1der, Neapolitan and everyone else.
The Ft. Mac Fire is more than a thousand Kilometers (or miles leagues furlongs) from my chair but the locked subduction zone of the Cascadia is sitting directly below.
Up the hill to the NW (Mt. Hayes) is the largest LNG storage facility on this island.
Logging as furiously as we have for more than 100 years the site up there is still surrounded with forest.
What could possibly go wrong?
Plowable Hail Piles Up in Western Nevada

Unlike severe thunderstorms that develop when temperatures are high and cloud tops reach 50 to 60 thousand feet, this was a colder environment (the surface temperature was around 50 degrees) and cloud tops were much lower.

Link
SPC has issued a moderate risk for tomorrow.

Some 48 hour rainfall totals from Soo Cal......decent enough.............. .34 at mi casa.

Link
are these the new norms?

Quoting 138. Tropicsweatherpr:

El Nino is taking it's time to go away.




Quoting 154. daddyjames:



Maybe if the fire were smaller in scale - yes. But the western edge of the fire perimeter now stretches 20 kilometers. The northeastern part - moving away from downtown - is about 10 km. No effort could contain, it much less put it out, only thing is to try and redirect it from causing significant property losses. It is just too darn big to be able to fight at the moment.

As the fire officials pointed out yesterday, it jumped a river 1 km wide. There was absolutely nothing they could do to stop the fire.

Edited: grammar sucked


Having been around several fires in my life, it always amazed me with how hot they burn. People come back to their homes and find that metal has melted. While the fire will boil off water, It still wouldn't stop me from trying to soak as much stuff around me as possible to stop the spread. At least a hot ember won't start - but once the fire gets close enough it almost doesn't matter how wet stuff is around you. Hence the need to get out.

Another potential environmental disaster is that fire retardant being spread just can't be good for animals (or people) to ingest. No matter how much they say it's OK. Something we don't hear too much about is the after effect of the chemicals used to fight fires.
Boxing Day floods showcased through new film on YouTube

Journalism student Calvin Robinson made the short documentary to highlight the extent of the devastation

Link
Guess where Fort McMurray is.
Image created from image and data provided at earth. Modified using Powerpoint.




The other blob to the left is a large wildfire on the BC/Alberta border.

Quoting 161. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Some 48 hour rainfall totals from Soo Cal......decent enough.............. .34 at mi casa.

Link
Here's my totals for the whole month:
05/01/2016      0.03
05/06/2016      0.03
05/07/2016      0.07

Ped - How far is Mi Casa, CA from your area?

It doesn't seem like there was enough to get that sandbag of yours damp.

Despite the high pollen count, it is a pretty darn nice day again up in the last frontier. Pretty soon, the namesake of the land of the midnight sun will be true again. It's getting pretty close to being light out at midnight..
Quoting 163. Dakster:



Having been around several fires in my life, it always amazed me with how hot they burn. People come back to their homes and find that metal has melted. While the fire will boil off water, It still wouldn't stop me from trying to soak as much stuff around me as possible to stop the spread. At least a hot ember won't start - but once the fire gets close enough it almost doesn't matter how wet stuff is around you. Hence the need to get out.

Another potential environmental disaster is that fire retardant being spread just can't be good for animals (or people) to ingest. No matter how much they say it's OK. Something we don't hear too much about is the after effect of the chemicals used to fight fires.





Couple watches house burn from smartphone after fleeing Fort McMurray blaze

Really amazing how intense the fire was.


If you want to see how intense this fire was - check out the link above. Title explains it all, unfortunately. But the guy was pretty upbeat recognizing how lucky they were that they evacuated.
what about the blob to the SE of what I think is lake winnipeg?
Quoting 165. daddyjames:

Guess where Fort McMurray is.
Image created from image and data provided at earth. Modified using Powerpoint.




The other blob to the left is a large wildfire on the BC/Alberta border.
Only a trace of rain over the past few days where I am here in the SF Bay Area from this upper level devil sitting over California. Current radar shows some heavier returns moving toward us right now from the NE, an odd direction, but I'll believe it when it's in the bucket.



On another note, water temps are back to above normal for the time of year---upper 50s---after having plunged into the upper 40s a couple of weeks ago thanks to strong upwelling from strong NW winds along the coastline.
Quoting 169. 19N81W:

what about the blob to the SE of what I think is lake winnipeg?



That looks like the Fort Saint John Fire in BC that closed the Alcan yesterday and is causing delays on the AlCan today.

(It's actually North of Ft. St. John).




Quoting   167.

Dakster

Ped - How far is Mi Casa, CA from your area?

About 75-85 miles....
and yes, barely got that sandbag damp..
Evacs. taking place in Ft. St. John too...

Link

Quoting 169. 19N81W:

what about the blob to the SE of what I think is lake winnipeg?



A large wildfire on the Manitoba/Ontario border.
fires everywhere....its just been so dry and not enough snow......hopefully the pattern lets up soon.
Quoting 171. Dakster:



That looks like the Fort Saint John Fire in BC that closed the Alcan yesterday and is causing delays on the AlCan today.

(It's actually North of Ft. St. John).


thanks
Quoting 174. daddyjames:



A large wildfire on the Manitoba/Ontario border.
Quoting 171. Dakster:



That looks like the Fort Saint John Fire in BC that closed the Alcan yesterday and is causing delays on the AlCan today.

(It's actually North of Ft. St. John).




Wrong direction Dak. The orange mark down and to the right. :)
- SCIENCE VIDEO - Fort McMurray fire: The new normal? - Interview
"A combination of conditions, consistent with climate change predictions, is to blame for fires" says forest management expert David Andison.
"The fire, burning between 800 C and 1,000 C, was first spotted when it was about 500 hectares in area (with each hectare about the size of a rugby pitch). It became what's called a crown fire, which occurs when the tops of conifers, which tend to burn more easily than deciduous trees, become engulfed and the flames spread through the canopy. That's when you start to see the 100-metre-high flames,"
said Mike Flannigan, professor of wildland fire at the University of Alberta in Edmonton.
The fire was likely moving at a speed of up to five kilometres per hour and quickly became difficult to manage.
Source : Fort McMurray wildfire burning so hot, only weather can stop it - CBC.ca

This "crown fire" feature is visible on some of the amateur footage shown on news channels : looks like an explosion, really, with flames almost white and tens of meters tall, so huge it looks like it's in slow motion.
- About half of Canada's oil sands production capacity has been taken offline by the conflagration, according to a Reuters estimate. Source : Canada wildfire explodes in size, fed by 'extremely' dry forest - Reuters
Great Barrier Reef: Report warns next term of government will seal its fate, Climate Council says

The fate of the Great Barrier Reef will be sealed by the next term of government, the Climate Council of Australia (CCA) has warned both the Labor Party and the Coalition.
Key points:

Window for change is almost closed, CCA spokesman Professor Will Steffen says
He says if fossil fuel use continues at current rate, the reef will be bleached every two years by 2030s
He is doubtful the reef will survive if a 1.5C target is not met

The CCA said a new report revealed the influence of climate change on the reef and provided strong scientific evidence that future bleaching events were likely to become more frequent and severe


Link
Quoting 177. daddyjames:



Wrong direction Dak. The orange mark down and to the right. :)


When I go to drivebc.ca it shows the fire as being north of Ft. St. John on the Map...

Quoting 168. daddyjames:






Couple watches house burn from smartphone after fleeing Fort McMurray blaze

Really amazing how intense the fire was.


If you want to see how intense this fire was - check out the link above. Title explains it all, unfortunately. But the guy was pretty upbeat recognizing how lucky they were that they evacuated.


I wonder why they didn't show the fire approaching the home using the outside cam? They only show the fire from the inside cam. I saw this video on the Today Show this morning and was asking the same question.
Quoting 180. Dakster:



When I go to drivebc.ca it shows the fire as being north of Ft. St. John on the Map...




Yes, but the Ft. St. John Fire is west of Fort McMurray (the other purple spot). 19N81W was asking about the orange spot located south and east of Fort McMurray, southeast of Lake Winnepeg.

Quoting 169. 19N81W:

what about the blob to the SE of what I think is lake winnipeg?
Quoting 181. Sfloridacat5:



I wonder why they didn't show the fire approaching the home using the outside cam? They only show the fire from the inside cam. I saw this video on the Today Show this morning and was asking the same question.



In the video - the guy explains that he watched as the fire approached (from the outside cam) then, when the fire got there, switched to the inside view. Guess he could only get one or the other camera. Likely that the outside camera stopped functioning first also.

Edit: The one you watched was edited. The video should be about 5 mins long that shows all that he recorded.
Recent update - sure that this is making people extremely nervous. Although resilient, not impervious.:

CBC News

Alberta Wildfire official Chad Morrison says wildfire is pushing northeast and is expected to burn to the edges of the Suncor site. Emphasizes that the site is very "resilient" to forest fires. Says "good news" is that the fire continues to move away from the community. Expecting cool weather in coming days could help situation.
The evac was a complete success as no lives were lost.

Calamity came and took all their Worldly possessions but they all have their Lives.

Those first responders, the emg mgrs et al, as well as the civilians all did a fantastic job.


On a quick sidenote, Tremor under Mt.St. Helen's.

USGS says swarm of earthquakes detected below Mount St. Helens
Published May 07, 2016



he U.S. Geological Survey said Friday they have discovered a swarm of small earthquakes underneath Mount St. Helens since March, which could mean it’s recharging with magma.

ADVERTISEMENT

Scientists said the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network detected more than 130 earthquakes, between 1.2 and 4 miles deep, in the region since March 13. Researchers said the majority of the quakes have registered as a magnitude 0.5 or less and some are too small to detect.

There’s no indication there will be an eruption anytime soon, scientists said.

“No anomalous gases, increases in ground inflation or shallow seismicity have been detected with this swarm, and there are no signs of an imminent eruption,” researchers said. “As was observed at Mount St. Helens between 1987-2004, recharge can continue for many years beneath a volcano without an eruption.”

According to the USGS, the quakes are volcano-tectonic – which are commonly seen in active magma systems. Stress pushes fluid through cracks, creating small quakes or tremors.

“The magma chamber is likely imparting its own stresses on the crust around and above it, as the system slowly recharges. The stress drives fluids through cracks, producing the small quakes. The current pattern of seismicity is similar to swarms seen at Mount St. Helens in 2013 and 2014; recharge swarms in the 1990s had much higher earthquake rates and energy release.”

The USGS said that data they have collected indicates the volcano is still active. The amount of qukes have been increasing since March, reaching nearly 40 per week.

The biggest eruption of Mount St. Helens occurred nearly 36 years ago in May of 1980. The eruption in Washington state killed 57 people, blasting more than 1,300 feet off its top and rained volcanic ash on surrounding areas.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Click for more from Q13 Fox.


Quoting 182. daddyjames:



Yes, but the Ft. St. John Fire is west of Fort McMurray (the other purple spot). 19N81W was asking about the orange spot located south and east of Fort McMurray, southeast of Lake Winnepeg.

Quoting 169. 19N81W:

what about the blob to the SE of what I think is lake winnipeg?



Gotcha...
Quoting 179. RobertWC:

Great Barrier Reef: Report warns next term of government will seal its fate, Climate Council says

The fate of the Great Barrier Reef will be sealed by the next term of government, the Climate Council of Australia (CCA) has warned both the Labor Party and the Coalition.
Key points:

Window for change is almost closed, CCA spokesman Professor Will Steffen says
He says if fossil fuel use continues at current rate, the reef will be bleached every two years by 2030s
He is doubtful the reef will survive if a 1.5C target is not met

The CCA said a new report revealed the influence of climate change on the reef and provided strong scientific evidence that future bleaching events were likely to become more frequent and severe


Link


Sometimes I wish I could click on a sad face instead of a plus . . . . not you, just the thought of that happening . . .
"The USGS said that data they have collected indicates the volcano is still active. The amount of quakes have been increasing since March, reaching nearly 40 per week."

don't know weather to laugh or cry...to sea or not to sea that be the question
Yellow alert.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0546
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 PM CDT SAT MAY 07 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN IL...SWRN IND...NRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 071845Z - 072115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND POSE A RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 21Z.

DISCUSSION...MESOANALYSIS AT 18Z SHOWS A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF INDIANA/ILLINOIS. THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
WARM/DESTABILIZE...AND CONTINUED HEATING IN THE PRESENCE OF
LOWER/MID 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD RESULT IN POCKETS OF
MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

A FEW BRIEF/STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WEAKENING INHIBITION AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG/IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-MID LEVEL
WIND FIELDS AND 35-40 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN
SOUTHEAST-MOVING CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT
SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION MAY ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
IS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA PRIOR TO 21Z.
Quoting 188. 3SeaHorses:

"The USGS said that data they have collected indicates the volcano is still active. The amount of quakes have been increasing since March, reaching nearly 40 per week."

don't know weather to laugh or cry...to sea or not to sea that be the question
Well it seems the average recurrence time for eruptions at Mt. St Helens is more or less 120 years (correct me if I'm wrong), and the last eruption was around thirty years ago. I tend to think while an eruption is always a possibility, and volcanoes are largely unpredictable things, this one doesn't worry me as much as some of the large half-sleeping volcanoes which proved devastating in the last centuries across the globe.
- Based on the article, if we start detecting anomalous gas leaks seeping through the volcano's sides, I could change my position :-)
Mount Saint Helens History provides a good background.
The NAM is all in for tornado formation across western Oklahoma Sunday night into Monday. I think the timing is a little off but it shows the potential late tomorrow evening.

Gonna get warm again soon.
New SPC outlook came out...no change.
Quoting 191. Sfloridacat5:

The NAM is all in for tornado formation across western Oklahoma Sunday night into Monday. I think the timing is a little off but it shows the potential late tomorrow evening.


I'm not particularly thrilled with that :(
Quoting 191. Sfloridacat5:

The NAM is all in for tornado formation across western Oklahoma Sunday night into Monday. I think the timing is a little off but it shows the potential late tomorrow evening.


It all comes down to if anything is able to overcome the cap and how dewpoints are over the region. I am thinking about heading out and setting up around El Reno. It will be difficult for anything to pop up, but what does will be very intense most likely.
*cough*

Brian Lada @wxlada 10 Min. Vor 10 Minuten
Incredible amount of wildfire smoke/haze has spread over the US. Fort McMurray just 1 of many sources #ymm #ymmfire

Here another map, tweeted by Jim Cantore.


*cough*
Parts of Sydney left with dangerous air quality amid hazard reduction burns across NSW
Updated about 6 hours ago
Hazard reduction burns across New South Wales have left parts of Sydney with dangerous air quality, with the east and north-west hardest hit. ...

Quoting 161. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Some 48 hour rainfall totals from Soo Cal......decent enough.............. .34 at mi casa.

Link


Little over 3/4 inch in my trusty Taylor Accurite gauge. Might have been more, the gauge was at an angle for the big part yesterday AM.
Looks like some people standing outside at the Kentucky Derby might get wet. It just started pouring while I was watching it live on T.V. So many people are getting soaked.
Luckily it didn't last too long. Looks like the shower has passed them now. But it was really coming down for a few minutes.
In northeastern Colorado right now...


Wow.
NAM-4km showing a scary picture SW of OKC tomorrow around 6PM.
Quoting 170. BayFog:

Only a trace of rain over the past few days where I am here in the SF Bay Area from this upper level devil sitting over California. Current radar shows some heavier returns moving toward us right now from the NE, an odd direction, but I'll believe it when it's in the bucket.



On another note, water temps are back to above normal for the time of year---upper 50s---after having plunged into the upper 40s a couple of weeks ago thanks to strong upwelling from strong NW winds along the coastline.

Yes and we owe those strong NW winds to the fact that the Aleutian Low has been getting knocked out or away by high pressure systems that set up around there. The AL diminishing is another sign of the waning El Nino and the PDO index dropped visibly at the same time.
Quoting 199. Hurricane1216:

In northeastern Colorado right now...


Wow.

Tweet with a video from a chaser.
Quoting 198. Sfloridacat5:

Looks like some people standing outside at the Kentucky Derby might get wet. It just started pouring while I was watching it live on T.V. So many people are getting soaked.
Luckily it didn't last too long. Looks like the shower has passed them now. But it was really coming down for a few minutes.



Rain is not good for my wager. I needed a fast track, well easy come easy go. Hopefully it will dry

TSR released their May forecast for the NW Pacific Basin and the numbers are 22/13/6. They are forecasting a below average season mainly because of ENSO and La Nina that is forecast to dominate later this Summer or Fall.But there are some uncertainties due to how the ENSO factor for the August and September period pans out.

Read excerpt below from the forecast and whole forecast at link.

The main factor behind the TSR forecast for a below-normal Northwest Pacific typhoon season in 2016 is the moderately negative Niño 3.75 SST anomaly anticipated in August-September 2016. A negative Niño 3.75 SST is associated with stronger trade wind strength over the region 2.5N-12.5N, 120E-180E. This in turn leads to lower cyclonic vorticity over the Northwest Pacific region where most intense typhoons form.

It should be stressed that sizeable uncertainties remain in the August-September ENSO forecast and thus in the seasonal typhoon forecast. If a stronger-than-anticipated La Niña develops by August-September 2016 we would expect that Northwest Pacific typhoon activity will be lower than forecast.

TSR May forecast for NW Pacific Basin
Another press conference about progress of the wildfires was just finished. Fires are about to reach the first tar sand facilities.

Jean-François Mezei ‏@jfmezei 13 Min.
Update map from the press conference of the oil sites north of Fort McMurray #YMM (fixed colours)
"Oklahoma Cyclone," photo taken in 1898. Definitely retouched, but still cool.

Levi Cowan
‏@TropicalTidbits
May NMME slightly better for Atlantic hurricane season. Stronger/quicker Nina & larger Carib-EPAC SSTA differential:
Panoramic view of destroyed San Francisco, May 1, 1906. Click photo to expand.

   Looks like the weather is good for the Kentucky Derby. There was a brief shower earlier but everything looks like the race will be dry.
Quoting 202. barbamz:


Tweet with a video from a chaser.



* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL WELD COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...

* UNTIL 400 PM MDT

* AT 336 PM MDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF BRIGGSDALE...OR 27 MILES NORTHWEST OF FORT MORGAN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
Quoting 191. Sfloridacat5:

The NAM is all in for tornado formation across western Oklahoma Sunday night into Monday. I think the timing is a little off but it shows the potential late tomorrow evening.


Wouldn't be surprised to see a significant, or maybe even violent, tornado in central Oklahoma tomorrow evening.
Canada wildfire: Alberta blaze threatens neighbouring province
BBC, 20 minutes ago

Crews will battle wildfire "for months to come"
By Cullen Bird, Today staff, Saturday, May 7, 2016 4:31:56 MDT PM

A good official tweet channel to follow is this one from Emergency Network:
https://twitter.com/AlertOntario

Below the latest pic of that mighty low "Xandrea", drenching the Iberian peninsula (Portugal and Spain), pressure currently at 985mb. To the east a little nasty low is annoying Tunisia. Meanwhile Germany is looking forward to another summerlike day, and my town Mainz will make up for the cancelled carnival parade earlier (due to severe gusts) with a similar parade. Guess the city will be crowded! Have a good night everyone! And best wishes to Canada.



Another event tomorrow in Europe:
Champs-Elysees in Paris goes car-free on Sunday
The Local (France), Published: 07 May 2016 14:00 GMT 02:00
The constant thunder of cars on Paris' most famous boulevard will be silenced Sunday when the Champs-Elysees goes pedestrian-only for the day in the first instalment of a monthly effort to tackle pollution. ...
Quoting 212. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Wouldn't be surprised to see a significant, or maybe even violent, tornado in central Oklahoma tomorrow evening.


Neither would Oklahomans. Becoming ground zero for violent tornadoes. I'd be a basket case if I lived in Moore.
Quoting 210. barbamz:



Man, what is it with Greely, anyway? Is it the proximity to the front range that spins things up right there?
I'm surprised people don't talk about this hurricane very often....
Quoting 214. yonzabam:



Neither would Oklahomans. Becoming ground zero for violent tornadoes. I'd be a basket case if I lived in Moore.


You have that right! No swirly whirlies allowed!

On a note of total admiration and respect for the firefighters in Ft. McMurray . . .
Google has satellite pictures posted on their google/crisismap site.
The latest is from May 6th, You can zoom in to many areas of the city.
From the images, once those firefighters determined what they could protect, they did. A significant portion of the town is relatively unaffected. Many, many people lost homes but many more will have a home to return to due to their selfless actions.
Quoting 216. washingtonian115:

I'm surprised people don't talk about this hurricane very often....



it made landfall on 9/11. Unfortunately, that date is now remembered for something else . . .
The first known photograph of a tornado, taken at Garnett, KS April 26, 1884. Click photographs to expand.



The Howard SD tornado on August 28, 1884. The first widely distributed photograph of a tornado. Commonly said to the the first tornado photograph. Looks more retouched. This tornado killed 4 people and injured 2 when it destroyed a farmhouse south of Bridgewater, SD (then the Dakota Territory), and was part of an outbreak which killed 6 people that day.



In a disaster, you find heroes in the most unlikely places.

As 80,000 people abandoned Fort McMurray earlier this week, George Muirhead stayed behind to man his post.

With a raging wildfire already burning homes and the city under a mandatory evacuation order, Muirhead packed his vehicle.

Then he made his way to the water treatment plant near the Athabasca River.

Many of the plant’s employees had already fled with their families, leaving a skeleton crew of nine men to continue their vital work, providing the water firefighters so desperately needed as they fought to save the city.


Link
221. 882MB
Some very heavy rain and nasty storms affecting Dominican Republic at the moment, with this frontal boundary. More rain in store for us here in PR, the next few days. Nice :)





Quoting 216. washingtonian115:

I'm surprised people don't talk about this hurricane very often....



That was a little before my time. But my mother remembers it flooding for days in SETX after the storm. Maybe from rainfall? She didn't live near the coast then. Although, Carla's surge must have been huge. Jefferson County, almost to the Louisiana border put their sea wall in because of Carla. That was a good move even though it wasn't tested until Ike. Jefferson county faired well. And well, a lot of other places didn't.
Not from a Hollywood movie, unfortunately :


- The full extent of property losses in Fort McMurray has yet to be determined, but one analyst estimated insurance losses could exceed C$9 billion ($7 billion).
- Firefighter Adam Bugden said he and his colleagues were working up to 36 hours at a time without sleep.
- Quite how quickly Fort McMurray can recover is unclear. Earlier in the day Alberta premier Rachel Notley said the city's gas had been turned off, its power grid was damaged and the water undrinkable.
Later on, Scott Long of the Alberta emergency management agency said planning had started for residents to return once the city was safe. "There is no timeline on that but I am not looking at months," he told the briefing later on Saturday.

- Syncrude oil sands project said it would shut down its northern Alberta operation and remove all personnel from the site due to smoke. There was no imminent threat from the fire.
- Officials said the fire could burn to the edge of a project operated by Suncor Energy Inc, but noted the site was highly resilient to fire damage.
- At least 10 oil sand operators have cut production due to evacuations and other emergency measures.
About half of Canada's oil sands production capacity, or one million barrels per day (bpd), had been taken offline as of Friday, according to a Reuters estimate.

Source : Reuters : Canada Wildfire Explodes in Size, Evacuees Urged to Go to Cities

A nice orographic effect can be seen on mean precipitation estimates on the northern coast of Spain, and there is something like a small tropical blob, off Tunisia's coast (severe thunderstorm probably, more images on my european weather blog) :


http://www.severestudios.com/live-storm-chasing-map / is an excellent alternative to TVN live, for future reference.
BB - My grandfather and great uncle were professional photographers and B&W film developers in their day. Back in the early to mid 1900's re-touching BW prints was standard. I remember as a kid my great uncle had a marble stone with some sort of black ink on it that he would use when he developed his prints. In later years he would professionally restore photos as well. I learned how to develop BW and then later taught myself color film and print development with color enlargers. But I never got the talent to restore old BW photos. And back when montages were really tough to do as there was no photoshop for actual film and paper.

Some of the things that we take for granted in the digital photography age.

Your tornado pictures brought some of those memories back. Along with the memories of developing Hurricane Photos with him for NOAA back when they took pictures of them with FILM. He did this for a long period of time. I still have a few of those photos around too...
Tornado in progress with this chase. Well there was a minute ago. It should drop again any time.
Link
Dakster you should dig out your old photographs and put them in your blog---old photographs are very interesting!
i wounder if we will see a upgrade too high risk for sunday PM
Video

Another picture:

Quoting 215. Mediarologist:

Man, what is it with Greely, anyway? Is it the proximity to the front range that spins things up right there?
I hear the strong winds there make one Horace.
* Five reef islands have disappeared from the Pacific's Solomon Islands and six more have been severely damaged due to rising sea levels and coastal erosion, according to new research. Studying the relationship between sea level rise and wave exposure in the "global sea-level rise hotspot," a team of Australian researchers found rising waters are taking a significant toll on the islands.
"At least 11 islands across the northern Solomon Islands have either totally disappeared over recent decades or are currently experiencing severe erosion," according to the study published in Environmental Research Letters.

Source : Phys.org : Sea-level rise claims five islands in Solomons: study - May 7, 2016.

* "Davidson said recent data that has been collected but has yet to be made official indicates sea levels could rise by roughly 3 meters or 9 feet by 2050-2060, far higher and quicker than current projections. Until now most projections have warned of seal level rise of up to 4 feet by 2100."
Source : RIMS 2016: Sea Level Rise Will Be Worse and Come Sooner

... Oops..? Awesome tornado video by the way.
Big damage yesterday from a rainstorm in China (Sichuan, Guizhou provinces), wrecked air, rail, road transports and various strategic utilities there. Also, unseasonal rains and hail storm hit many villages in Maharashtra province, in India. Source : DNAIndia - Over 4,000 passengers stranded in China as rain cancels nearly 50 flights - May 7.
999Ai2016, will France and Germany accept 17 million Dutch refugees?
Quoting 234. BaltimoreBrian:

999Ai2016, will France and Germany accept 17 million Dutch refugees?

Hey maybe they'll confiscate their cash and valuables at the border, and make than hand over 75% of their income once they start working..

Netherlands claimed more than £500,000 from refugees in four years

That would be just.
Quoting 229. BaltimoreBrian:

Dakster you should dig out your old photographs and put them in your blog---old photographs are very interesting!


Once I get settled in with my new digs up here I will find the and post what I can still find that are weather related. What we get in seconds used to take almost a day before. As the HH had to get back to Miami with the FILM that had to be developed and then each picture manually developed.

Your old photo finds are much more interesting than the ones I have of Hurricanes though!
Quoting 212. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Wouldn't be surprised to see a significant, or maybe even violent, tornado in central Oklahoma tomorrow evening.


How does SE Texas look for violent weather?
California snowpack currently sitting at 57% of normal for this date (in water equivalents), contrasted with 1% of normal for this date last year.
CA Snow Water Equivalents

On the home front, no snow remains at my elevation (~5970'), but my PWS has registered 1.21 inches of rain over the last couple days.


The inferno around Fort McMurray may become the costliest catastrophe in the country%u2019s history with insurance losses potentially reaching C$9.4 billion ($7.3 billion). Bank of Montreal cut its second-quarter gross domestic product growth estimate to zero from 1.5 percent, citing %u201Csevere disruptions to oil production%u201D due to the fires. BMO said the estimate was a placeholder, dependent on receiving more information on the scope of the disaster.

The economic cost of the disaster is %u201Cunquantifiable,%u201D Goodale said, but it will be %u201Cfar-reaching and deep.%u201D


Bloomberg


Today's rain... interesting map.
Quoting 239. pureet1948:



How does SE Texas look for violent weather?


Have you read you local forecast from the NWS?
Quoting 239. pureet1948:



How does SE Texas look for violent weather?

Houston-Galveston should avoid the severe weather completely.
Fort McMurray wildfire was just two hectares before morphing into vicious inferno

7:40 p.m. Saturday — “We need heavy rain — showers won’t be enough.”

When the inferno consuming northern Alberta was first discovered at 4 p.m. last Sunday, it was a meagre two-hectare blaze. Now it’s so vicious, crews will be fighting it for months to come.

Fire crews stumbled across the fire while on motorized patrol, and immediately tried to get it under control.

They brought in air tankers — four of them — but within two hours, it had grown to 60 hectares, or 0.6 square kilometres.

On Saturday morning, it had ballooned to 1,560 square kilometres. By the end of day, it was expected to mushroom to 2,500 square kilometres and reach the Saskatchewan border.

During a Saturday briefing, Chad Morrison with Alberta wildfire said the rate of growth just goes to show how hot and dry the conditions are right now.


Link
:O
Watching the great movie Core on netflix found this gem:

Quoting 242. CaribBoy:



Today's rain... interesting map.
Where are you on that island? Left, right or middle?


I want it!
Quoting 250. PedleyCA:


Where are you on that island? Left, right or middle?



I'm in the right side. We got a shower around 3AM last night but didn't hear anything lol.. I was sleeping hard.

Quoting 252. CaribBoy:



I'm in the right side. We got a shower around 3AM last night but didn't hear anything lol.. I was sleeping hard.
Well, at least you got something, good luck for more.....
254. 882MB
Quoting 251. CaribBoy:



I want it!



CaribBoy, I wish you get the rain you so desperately want. This week coming up, looks wet across our neck of the woods, due to this same frontal boundary.
Quoting 232. BaltimoreBrian:

I hear the strong winds there make one Horace.
What this blog needs is a groan button.
Quoting 249. Gearsts:

Watching the great movie Core on netflix found this gem:



Is that a major hurricane approaching Washington state in the middle of winter? H'what.
Scientists track Greenland's ice melt with seismic waves

Researchers from MIT, Princeton University, and elsewhere have developed a new technique to monitor the seasonal changes in Greenland's ice sheet, using seismic vibrations generated by crashing ocean waves. The results, which will be published in the journal Science Advances, may help scientists pinpoint regions of the ice sheet that are most vulnerable to melting. The technique may also set better constraints on how the world's ice sheets contribute to global sea-level changes. ................ "They happen 24 hours a day, seven days a week, and they generate a very small signal, which we generally don't feel," Prieto says. "But very precise seismic sensors can feel these waves everywhere in the world. Even in the middle of continents, you can see these ocean effects."

Read more at: Link
This severe season is lurking. Moderate risk, but it's a baby moderate risk area tomorrow. After last faint from mother nature, clearly SPC ringing the alarms at a much lower octave level. Warnings currently are fine and wording doesn't mince the risk, just American human nature to tune out after a tornado outbreak bust. Don't feel the urgency from the SPC, if you will, compared to the more extreme wording from last outbreak. That was an epic outbreak of severe weather, moderate risk was absolutely warranted. Over 500 severe reports on the day. Thank goodness that low level sheer wasn't stronger earlier in the day. One day soon, we all know, the risk area is going to over perform in tornadoes big.
Quoting 255. FLwolverine:

What this blog needs is a groan button.
30 years ago playing football and baseball and cleaning my plates and cleaning out the fridge my dad would groan (q.v.) at the expense and my mom would say "he's a groan boy".

I bet wxgeek723 could tell you more about the groans New Jersey beaches are famous for. *hides*
260. JRRP7

Quoting 252. CaribBoy:



I'm in the right side. We got a shower around 3AM last night but didn't hear anything lol.. I was sleeping hard.

I used to sleep that soundly almost every night when I was 14.
Much better JRRP7. Stormy Mona passage.
Scientists track Greenland's ice melt with seismic waves

A bit of history about this , my little avatar there on the left is from when I was on a seismic crew.

Geophone tech took off in the 1960's as a result of the Vietnam War. We planted them on the Ho Chi Minh trail. The DOD poured tons of money into it. By the time I came in contact with them 15 years later, here's how good they were :

If you were on an AMACO contract, you had to bury every "jug" in the ground. Because if you just stomped in the ground , every geophone on the line could record jets flying at 35,000 ft. over Utah.

The whole idea was to have as clean of a "shot" as possible. These things could record sheep walking around a thousand yards from the line. That was nearly 40 years ago.

I believe every word of this story -
Scientists track Greenland's ice melt with seismic waves

The "shot" , that was my job . Drill a 30 foot , 4 inch hole , load 20 lbs. of 60% of high velocity nitropel, a big fat primer with a cap, fill the hole back up with gravel. Tie the cap wires to a 3 foot grade stake , write the info on it, and tie very colorful plastic flagging to the top.

When these things when off, the ground around that hole jumped nearly 5 feet in the air.

fill the hole back up with gravel.

This most expensive gravel in the history of the world. Helicopters flew this this stuff to over 10,000 feet.
In May of 1979 I loaded a hole on a Texaco contract , on the West end of the Unita Mountains . It was the highest shot hole ever drilled. 10,600 feet .
Everyone in Denver broke out the drinks.

This is why I believe that we can listen to waves crashing into Greenland.
“A mother holds her children’s hands for a little while,
But their hearts forever.”

~ Unknown
0z model guidance trended a bit slower and farther north with tomorrow's shortwave trough. This brings the potential for a cap bust into the equation for Oklahoma. Significant severe weather would still be possible over Kansas. That said, any storm that does form will have the potential to produce a significant-violent tornado.

It's never easy...
Cody this summer:

Quoting 259. BaltimoreBrian:

30 years ago playing football and baseball and cleaning my plates and cleaning out the fridge my dad would groan (q.v.) at the expense and my mom would say "he's a groan boy".

I bet wxgeek723 could tell you more about the groans New Jersey beaches are famous for. *hides*


Funny... well... not really....

Went house looking... Now to do the fun stuff with the financing... ugh... Found my place up the mountain, not in a EQ zone, not in a flood zone, avalanche zone, mud slide zone... Although 100 mpg winds are common... I guess you can't have everything.
Quoting 265. TropicalAnalystwx13:

0z model guidance trended a bit slower and farther north with tomorrow's shortwave trough. This brings the potential for a cap bust into the equation for Oklahoma. Significant severe weather would still be possible over Kansas. That said, any storm that does form will have the potential to produce a significant-violent tornado.

It's never easy...


Meh, not surprised. This is pretty much how the majority of presumptive outbreaks have been playing out this year (and last year, and the year before it).
Quoting 259. BaltimoreBrian:

30 years ago playing football and baseball and cleaning my plates and cleaning out the fridge my dad would groan (q.v.) at the expense and my mom would say "he's a groan boy".

I bet wxgeek723 could tell you more about the groans New Jersey beaches are famous for. *hides*


...Syringes?
Quoting 234. BaltimoreBrian:

999Ai2016, will France and Germany accept 17 million Dutch refugees?

We'll have to float.
The irony of the end is that it will be the rivers traversing mainly through Germany that will do it (we can handle sea level rise as such for a long time, but at some point we won't be able to get rid of the waters assembling in the delta NL is).
Quoting 269. CybrTeddy:



Meh, not surprised. This is pretty much how the majority of presumptive outbreaks have been playing out this year (and last year, and the year before it).


*obligatory obnoxious captain trough saves the day post*
Good morning and happy Mother's day.

A touch of frost on the grass this morning here, nothing of note on any tree or emerging musa basjoo foliage.

This upper low is kinda ominous for Southern Ontario, heading into the May 24 weekend.

Good morning abroad.
This tornado footage of Reed Timmer yesterday in Colorado is absolutely ... (*lacking words*)

News is some days old, but nevertheless good news of which Canada certainly would like to get a share:
India fires: Rainfall douses deadly blazes in Uttarakhand
BBC, 5 May 2016

And here unfortunately bad weather news:
7 rescued, about 28 missing at construction site in southeast China landslide
CCTV.com, 05-08-2016 14:12 BJT
Some areas of Sanming saw over 200 millimeters of rainfall on Saturday. The downpour is expected to continue over the next couple of hours.
Quoting 274. barbamz:

Good morning abroad.
This tornado footage of Reed Timmer yesterday in Colorado is absolutely ... (*lacking words*)




"Lacking words" indeed. I couldn't watch to the end, and every cell in my body was screaming "STOP!" as they kept driving closer, and I am safe in my chair. Clearly I have stronger self-preservation instincts than they do!
Quoting 272. KoritheMan:



*obligatory obnoxious captain trough saves the day post*
Yep and i'll keep on saying it this summer when a trough comes rushing down with a hurricane about to be swept out to sea.I'll even design you your own shirt :)
The Fort McMurray fire doubled in size yesterday; it has now consumed roughly 300,000 hectares (740,000 acres / 1,160 square miles). The fire yesterday released an estimated 6.8 million metric tons of CO2, which is more than three times as much as the entire nation of Canada emits on an average day. (That should help a lot).

Apologies, but my published sources were premature and incorrect.
Rain starting :)

Quoting 275. VermontStorms:



"Lacking words" indeed. I couldn't watch to the end, and every cell in my body was screaming "STOP!" as they kept driving closer, and I am safe in my chair. Clearly I have stronger self-preservation instincts than they do!


I'm actually surprised he didn't go completely into the core of the tornado. He probably would have if he could have done a perfect "intercept" where he had time to setup the vehicle. That's if he was in one of his Dominator Vehicles.

Pretty cool look at the Dominator 3
Link
Quoting 277. Neapolitan:

The Fort McMurray fire doubled in size yesterday; it has now consumed roughly 300,000 hectares (740,000 acres / 1,160 square miles). The fire yesterday released an estimated 6.8 million metric tons of CO2, which is more than three times as much as the entire nation of Canada emits on an average day. (That should help a lot).


Hurry Murray and put out the fire!
Quoting 276. washingtonian115:

Yep and i'll keep on saying it this summer when a trough comes rushing down with a hurricane about to be swept out to sea.I'll even design you your own shirt :)
For all those who might be bored: Livestream of our very delayed carnival parade in my town Mainz (cancelled due to dangerous gusts back in February) just started. They've combined the parade with the jubilee "200 years Rhenish-Hesse" which is the hinterland of Mainz (of course, the culture of this region is much older and goes back to the Romans, but the political structure was formed 200 years ago). Weather is just gorgeous, and I'm out with this to have a look by myself.
Quoting 274. barbamz:

Good morning abroad.
This tornado footage of Reed Timmer yesterday in Colorado is absolutely ... (*lacking words*)


Absolutely beautiful video.
However, Reed Timmer again displays his incredible recklessness, disregarding his and other's safety.
Running out of gas while chasing, and in the near vicinity of a tornado?
His passion has to be recognized. But his recklessness sets an example that not only endangers his life - at least he would die doing what he loves - but the lives of others with him and those that emulate him.
I have absolutely no respect for him.
Quoting 280. Sfloridacat5:



I'm actually surprised he didn't go completely into the core of the tornado. He probably would have if he could have done a perfect "intercept" where he had time to setup the vehicle. That's if he was in one of his Dominator Vehicles.

Pretty cool look at the Dominator 3
Link


He ran out of gas. If you listen to the tape. A complete lack of any level of professionalism on his part - endangering himself and others like that.
Shouldnt be long before we get a named system in the eastern Pacific...

Current satellite estimation of the Ft. McMurray fire perimeter and hot spots from the last 24 hours.
The good news, if there is any, is that the areas actively burning appear more concentrated than the past few days and are located in relatively "undeveloped" areas. Although, it still remains a very large fire.

Plot also shows extratropical development.






MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 08.05.2016

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 12.7N 103.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.05.2016 132 12.7N 103.1W 1005 26
0000UTC 14.05.2016 144 13.4N 104.8W 1004 32
Quoting 285. daddyjames:



He ran out of gas. If you listen to the tape. A complete lack of any level of professionalism on his part - endangering himself and others like that.


Yeah, but that's his style. Anyone the rides with Reed knows he is an "extreme" storm chaser and tries to get into tornadoes whenever possible.
Reed has been inside an EF4 and recorded vertical (uplift) wind velocity of 200 mph. That's why tornado winds are much more destructive than straight winds (hurricane winds) of the same speed.
I would like to see the NWS survey of the Colorado tornado. I would guess an EF2 maybe. Lots of dry dust pulled into the tornado.
Quoting 290. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, but that's his style. Anyone the rides with Reed knows he is an "extreme" storm chaser and tries to get into tornadoes whenever possible.
Reed has been inside an EF4 and recorded vertical (uplift) wind velocity of 200 mph. That's why tornado winds are much more destructive than straight winds (hurricane winds) of the same speed.
I would like to see the NWS survey of the Colorado tornado. I would guess an EF2 maybe. Lots of dry dust pulled into the tornado.



Yeah. It is. And it certainly is not to be respected. I'll go on record and say that: there is a high probability that one day he or someone else is severely injured or killed either participating in or emulating his reckless behavior. Then the the image/brand that he has crafted will come crashing down. He'll be ostracized from the very community that he so loves. The signs are all there, bubbling just under the surface. Let's see how it plays out.

Mind you, I don't wish ill will on him or others. I am sure that he is a great guy to know. But. he is no longer a kid, has a Ph.D in meteorology, and works for (represents) KFOR/Tribune Media Company - on and off the job.

The other likely scenario, is that something scares the living daylights out of him - and he hangs things up as an active chaser. But then again, that would be a sign of maturity.

Edit: "Extreme" - is that defined by his behavior, or the type of storms he chases? It should not confused with recklessness.
Since June storms typically form and come out of the Western Caribbean, and into the Gulf or near Florida, any storm that does this year will have plenty of things going for it.
Then again, upon reflection, I am ignoring Reed Timmer's penchant for over-dramatization of what is actually happening. He probably said he was running out of gas, and yet still had a quarter-of-a-tank left. Just to "over-inflate" the sense of danger he was placing himself in for his "fan-base". Again, something to not be respected.
Current dewpoints in OK. Just on the borderline for causing major problems (stay low, stay low)

Quoting 285. daddyjames:



He ran out of gas. If you listen to the tape. A complete lack of any level of professionalism on his part - endangering himself and others like that.
Not to stick up for Timmer--he does take a few too many chances--but when he says that the chase crew is "about to run out of gas", I think he's referring to the utility trailer blocking the highway ahead. IOW, they're about to run out of room.

Anyway, here's a nice 360-degree video of the same storm from the same highway, though farther from the cyclone than Timmer. It's not as sharp, but the full-range video gives you a greater sense of what it's actually like being there:



If WU's player isn't showing true 360, watch on YouTube...
Awesome front stretching from Northeast Atlantic down to Caribbean has potential to have that tail break off that's given Haiti/DR and PR that much needed rain. It's in an interesting spot wind wise, curious to see what it's movement will be today. Hope today takes off early like the other elevated/moderate threat days have here recently. Get some elongated storms that go into a line sooner would be very nice to see again. No good twisters! My apologies to the storm chasers, I could watch chases all day long, but I'm hoping there's a lot of wasted time today on the roads.
SPC AC 081359

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0859 AM CDT SUN MAY 08 2016

VALID 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS KS AND WRN OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM SRN NEB AND SWRN
IA TO W-CENTRAL TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING SLGT RISK FROM MO
VALLEY AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO SW TX...

. . . .

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL AND A
FEW TORNADOES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT AREA FROM
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA BEGINNING LATE AFTERNOON.

. . . . .

...CENTRAL PLAINS TO WRN OK...AFTN TO EARLY EVENING...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM THIS AFTN
INVOF DRYLINE AND SFC LOW...AS WELL AS NEAR FRONTAL ZONE E OF SFC
LOW. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY FORM IN DESTABILIZING AIR MASS
BETWEEN KS BOUNDARY AND DEVELOPING FRONT FARTHER N ACROSS NEB.
LARGE HAIL...SVR GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES ALL ARE POSSIBLE. A
COUPLE STG TORNADOES MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY DURING LATEST PART OF
AFTN/EARLY EVENING AS MOISTURE INCREASES VIA ADVECTION...BEFORE
DIABATIC COOLING UNFAVORABLY STABILIZES NEAR-SFC LAYER...AND AS LLJ
ENLARGES BOUNDARY-LAYER HODOGRAPHS. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF TSTMS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SVR HAIL -- INCLUDING SOME DAMAGING HAIL AOA 2
INCHES ACROSS -- STILL APPEARS TO BE OVER ENH-RISK AREA.

SFC ANALYSES SHOW DEW POINTS 60S F NEAR RED RIVER...WITH ABOUT
125-MB-DEEP MOIST LAYER AND 12 G/KG MEAN MIXING RATIO SAMPLED BELOW
EML INVERSION BY 12Z FWD RAOB. MOIST ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH PERIOD E OF DRYLINE AND ALONG/S OF CENTRAL PLAINS FRONTAL
ZONES. THIS...ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING BEHIND MORNING CLOUDS/
CONVECTION...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR 2000-2500 J/KG
PRECONVECTIVE/AFTN MLCAPE ACROSS MUCH OF ENH-RISK AREA...DIMINISHING
SWD IN WEAKER LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND NWD WITH WEAKER BOUNDARY-LAYER
THETAE. STRONGEST DEEP SHEAR SHOULD BE OVER WRN OK INTO CENTRAL KS
BENEATH 250- AND 500-MB JET CORES. THAT AND FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...INITIALLY HIGH-BASED NEAR
DRYLINE BUT WITH LCL LOWERING EWD. ACTIVITY OVER NRN KS MAY PERSIST
FURTHER INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS WHILE DRYLINE-INITIATED CONVECTION OVER
OK AND PERHAPS SRN KS DIMINISHES.

Well, another day of hoping that hail remains "too small to significantly dent the car" range in my neck of the woods. Not to mention those other things . . .

If the amount of rain we got here in Santo Domingo yesterday is anything like the rain you're going to get today then you're in for a treat! The most intense rain I've seen here in years (and that includes tropical storms from recent years...) It started raining around 2-3 pm and continued into the night.

Have fun!


Quoting 251. CaribBoy:



I want it!

Afternoon all. We've been having super wx here for the 2nd Junkanoo Carnival. The recent frontal system cleared the air and kept air temperatures cooler at night, when many events are going on.
301. beell
Next mid-level wave currently over the TX/NM border area. Headed for NW OK and into KS.




(static loop ending @ 1715Z)

From the previous (13Z) Day 1:

1. LEADING PERTURBATION INITIALLY OVER SWRN NM...FCST TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS NM/TX PANHANDLE TODAY...REACHING WRN KS AROUND 00Z. THIS FEATURE THEN SHOULD TIGHTEN INTO PRIMARY 500-MB LOW OVER NEB OVERNIGHT AS CURRENT LOW OVER SRN WY/NWRN CO FILLS.
2. TRAILING/SECONDARY VORTICITY LOBE CURRENTLY EVIDENT OVER SAN AREA...AND FCST TO PIVOT CYCLONICALLY EWD ACROSS NRN BAJA AND SONORA THROUGH 00Z. THIS PERTURBATION THEN SHOULD EJECT NEWD TO FAR W TX AND TX SOUTH PLAINS BY 12Z.
things are starting too look vary dangerous for vary strong tornados has skys have clear out big time
Quoting 292. Climate175:

Since June storms typically form and come out of the Western Caribbean, and into the Gulf or near Florida, any storm that does this year will have plenty of things going for it.
The Bahamas rarely experiences a June hurricane; by August tracks shift to the ATL mdr and The Bahamas becomes more like a hurricane highway....
Quoting 302. Tazmanian:

things are starting too look vary dangerous for vary strong tornados has skys have clear out big time
Today or tomorrow, Taz?
Quoting 304. BahaHurican:

Today or tomorrow, Taz?


today did not say any thing about tomorrow
ugh whats all file a law suit for TVN getting rid of that site
i think getting rid of the MOD risk was a miss stake
Dry line setup pushing across western Texas and the Texas Panhandle. Visible satellite with dewpoints.
309. beell



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0556

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0118 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF N TX AND WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 081818Z - 082015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS SW OK BY 21Z. ADDITIONAL STORM WILL DEVELOP OVER NW OK AND MOVE INTO S-CNTRL KS AS WELL. VERY LARGE HAIL...A FEW TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL CUMULUS FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPEND FROM NEAR THE RED RIVER THROUGH WESTERN OK THIS AFTERNOON. THE NATURE OF THE CU SUGGESTS INHIBITION STILL EXISTS. BUT EXPECT INITIATION BY THE 20-21Z TIME FRAME ACROSS WESTERN N TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK WHERE HEATING HAS BEEN STRONGEST AND TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW 80S AS OF 18Z. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE HOVERING IN THE 62-66 DEG F RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MCD AREA EXCEPT PORTIONS OF FAR NW OK INTO S-CNTRL KS WHERE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S WERE NOTED...RESULTING IN MUCAPE RANGING FROM 1000-2000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7.5 DEG C/KM PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS WILL SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL /SOME BIGGER THAN 2 INCHES/. SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM IS CURRENTLY UNIMPRESSIVE BUT SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE 22-00Z TIME FRAME IN VICINITY OF THE BULGING DRYLINE. AS SUCH...A FEW HOURS OF INCREASED TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH ISOLATED DISCRETE CONVECTION WILL EXIST ACROSS SW OK.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NW OK AND MOVE INTO S-CNTRL KS. THESE STORMS WILL EXIST IN A SIMILAR BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT AS THOSE FURTHER S OVER SW OK...BUT QUALITY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY DIMINISHES INTO S-CNTRL KS WHERE ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED MOST OF THE DAY. STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN IN THIS AREA...THOUGH A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

..LEITMAN/HART.. 05/08/2016
Rough slog up to 4700' on the East side of Mt Baker. Warm and melting. Tons of pollen. Cant recall a more difficult hike of only 6.5 miles rt and 2000' elevation gain, so many trees down over the trail, mud and nasty roots everywhere, brushy, steep, and slushy snow. But worth it!

Quoting 309. beell:




MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0556

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0118 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF N TX AND WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 081818Z - 082015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS SW OK BY 21Z. ADDITIONAL STORM WILL DEVELOP OVER NW OK AND MOVE INTO S-CNTRL KS AS WELL. VERY LARGE HAIL...A FEW TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL CUMULUS FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPEND FROM NEAR THE RED RIVER THROUGH WESTERN OK THIS AFTERNOON. THE NATURE OF THE CU SUGGESTS INHIBITION STILL EXISTS. BUT EXPECT INITIATION BY THE 20-21Z TIME FRAME ACROSS WESTERN N TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK WHERE HEATING HAS BEEN STRONGEST AND TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW 80S AS OF 18Z. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE HOVERING IN THE 62-66 DEG F RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MCD AREA EXCEPT PORTIONS OF FAR NW OK INTO S-CNTRL KS WHERE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S WERE NOTED...RESULTING IN MUCAPE RANGING FROM 1000-2000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7.5 DEG C/KM PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS WILL SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL /SOME BIGGER THAN 2 INCHES/. SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM IS CURRENTLY UNIMPRESSIVE BUT SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE 22-00Z TIME FRAME IN VICINITY OF THE BULGING DRYLINE. AS SUCH...A FEW HOURS OF INCREASED TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH ISOLATED DISCRETE CONVECTION WILL EXIST ACROSS SW OK.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NW OK AND MOVE INTO S-CNTRL KS. THESE STORMS WILL EXIST IN A SIMILAR BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT AS THOSE FURTHER S OVER SW OK...BUT QUALITY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY DIMINISHES INTO S-CNTRL KS WHERE ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED MOST OF THE DAY. STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN IN THIS AREA...THOUGH A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

..LEITMAN/HART.. 05/08/2016


:( still hoping the hail remains below the "significant dents in the car size". Not happy to see the increased potential for tornadoes to the SW. How ya doing?
ALBERTA OFFICIAL SAYS MINOR DAMAGE IN YARD AT CNOOC NEXEN LONG LAKE FACILITY FROM WILDFIRE NEAR FORT MCMURRAY. (5mn ago, source : Reuters)
This fire won't stop anytime soon.
This front over the west Atlantic is sucking up an awful lot of moisture towards the north and north-east, seems like something hot is brewing fast :


314. beell
Quoting 311. daddyjames:



:( still hoping the hail remains below the "significant dents in the car size". Not happy to see the increased potential for tornadoes to the SW. How ya doing?


Doing good, thanks-same for you, I assume. Made a promise to someone the other day to clean the bathroom on this day...all of it...sinks, tub, shower, floor...current analysis suggests that this was not a good idea.

Still a bit of a cap over central OK. That is an 8°C isotherm @ 700 mb in the graphic below. Maybe the activity in south central TX will cause some interference in SW OK.



Not a good tornado shelter, but a great place to watch a hail storm! Not likely to see many folks washing their vehicles.

Quoting 314. beell:



Doing good, thanks-same for you, I assume. Made a promise to someone the other day to clean the bathroom on this day...all of it...sinks, tub, shower, floor...current analysis suggests that this was not a good idea.

Still a bit of a cap over central OK. That is an 8°C isotherm @ 700 mb in the graphic below. Maybe the activity in south central TX will cause some interference in SW OK.



Not a good tornado shelter, but a great place to watch a hail storm! Not likely to see many folks washing their vehicles.




Doing well . . . except {sigh} . . . thanks for reminding me - I have to do the same, just in case I am crouching in there later on this afternoon/evening. (here's hoping not)
BRB :D
317. beell
Dryline bulge appears to be setting up a bit farther south than I thought it would. Not western OK. There is or may be a focus for convergence where the dryline turns north near the Red River in the western portions of north central TX (Wichita Falls, Mineral Wells).

This area and south central KS/northwest OK-under the better forcing, are still well covered by the SPC's Outlooks.



(current RAP moisture convergence)
Quoting 315. lahcuts:


Thanks, the first line of the article you reference saved me a lot of time reading.

I did peruse it though . . . Interesting that the author did not present any information/evidence/records for the main point made in Dr. Master's post - Snow Cover Anomalies in the Spring has allowed for the probability of wildfires occurring in the Spring to increase, and that this shift to has been occurring over a time period which excludes the immediate affects of shorter-interval atmospheric influences (El Nino, etc.).

Nothing presented in the linked article addresses the main point made in Dr.. Master's/Hensen - Jeff and (not-so-silent) Bob' s - post-
The Fort McMurray Disaster: Getting Beyond “Is It Climate Change?
Quoting 317. beell:

Dryline bulge appears to be setting up a bit farther south than I thought it would. Not western OK There is or may be a focus for convergence where the dryline turns north near the Red River in the western portions of north central TX (Wichita Falls, Mineral Wells).

This area and south central KS/northwest OK-under the better forcing, are still well covered by the SPC's Outlooks.



(current RAP moisture convergence)



Not wishing any ill-will towards you Texans but . . ..
Quoting 315. lahcuts:

Alternative Info on Alberta wildfire. Similar situations over the US due Smokey the Bear approach. History serves to put a lot of current and recently past weather into perspective.

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/201 6/05/08/albertas-wildfire/
Spare us, please. A nonsense-filled blog post written by a nobody and appearing on a website operated by a conservative "skeptic" who's been proven wrong over and over and over and over and over isn't providing "alternative info"; it's promoting idiocy.

Now, in his latest bit of gibberish, Paul Homewood is as wrong as he's *always* been wrong. Period. Dr. Masters is just one of many highly-credentialed scientists who has thoughtfully and cautiously weighed in on whether and how our rapidly changing climate has played a part in this week's fire; Homewood is a shadowy pro-oil ideologue of uncertain experience and education who trots out an old single-day high temperature chart, throws in a handful of anti-Masters ad hominems, and publishes it hoping/knowing that his sycophants will gleefully spread his anti-logical rant.

So, bottom line: next!
Quoting 312. 999Ai2016:

ALBERTA OFFICIAL SAYS MINOR DAMAGE IN YARD AT CNOOC NEXEN LONG LAKE FACILITY FROM WILDFIRE NEAR FORT MCMURRAY. (5mn ago, source : Reuters)
This fire won't stop anytime soon.
This front over the west Atlantic is sucking up an awful lot of moisture towards the north and north-east, seems like something hot is brewing fast :



Awesome power of nature...

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 149
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
305 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 305 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3
INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG A DRYLINE OVER WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH
TX...TRACKING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
STORMS. ACTIVITY MAY MAKE IT TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR BEFORE WEAKENING.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
WICHITA FALLS TEXAS TO 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF ALVA OKLAHOMA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 148...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.
Quoting 324. Sfloridacat5:


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 149
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
305 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 305 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3
INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG A DRYLINE OVER WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH
TX...TRACKING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
STORMS. ACTIVITY MAY MAKE IT TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR BEFORE WEAKENING.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
WICHITA FALLS TEXAS TO 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF ALVA OKLAHOMA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 148...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.


Good News - just outside of the watch area.

Not-so-good news:
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes: Mod (50%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes: Mod (30%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events: Mod (30%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots: Low (10%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events: High (80%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches: Mod (60%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events: High (>95%)

I hate hail. I really hate hail. More likely to get hit by that rather than a swirly whirly. (fingers crossed)
Storms are rapidly developing down near Childress Texas about to cross over into S.W. Oklahoma.
327. beell


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2016

VALID 082000Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WRN OK AND WRN TO CNTRL KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID MO VALLEY OUTSIDE OF THE ENHANCED RISK AREA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID MO VALLEY OUTSIDE OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NC...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW TORNADOES WITH A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO AFFECT PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
SEVERAL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS ISSUANCE. THE FIRST CHANGE IS TO TRIM THE 10 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY FROM NCNTRL KS WHERE INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN TO THE SOUTH. HAVE DRAWN A SIGNIFICANT HATCHED AREA ACROSS THE ENTIRE 10 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY WHERE A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE LATEST RAP HAS DEVELOPED MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS WRN OK AND SCNTRL KS WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. SHORT-TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS DEVELOP SEVERAL DISCRETE STORMS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND REPEAT INITIATION WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR A STRONG TORNADO WILL BE ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET IN THE 22Z TO 02Z WINDOW FROM BETWEEN LAWTON AND ALTUS EXTENDING NWD TO BETWEEN WOODWARD AND ENID TO MEDICINE LODGE AND GREAT BEND KS. ANOTHER CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK IS TO REMOVE THE ENHANCED RISK FROM NE KS WHERE TODAY'S CONVECTION HAS IMPEDED DESTABILIZATION. HAVE FOCUSED THE SIGNIFICANT HAIL HATCHED AREA FROM WRN OK NWD INTO WRN AND CNTRL KS WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS CURRENTLY PRESENT.

..BROYLES.. 05/08/2016
Quoting 327. beell:



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2016

VALID 082000Z - 091200Z

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
SEVERAL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS ISSUANCE. THE FIRST CHANGE IS TO TRIM THE 10 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY FROM NCNTRL KS WHERE INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN TO THE SOUTH. HAVE DRAWN A SIGNIFICANT HATCHED AREA ACROSS THE ENTIRE 10 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY WHERE A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE LATEST RAP HAS DEVELOPED MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS WRN OK AND SCNTRL KS WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. SHORT-TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS DEVELOP SEVERAL DISCRETE STORMS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND REPEAT INITIATION WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR A STRONG TORNADO WILL BE ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET IN THE 22Z TO 02Z WINDOW FROM BETWEEN LAWTON AND ALTUS EXTENDING NWD TO BETWEEN WOODWARD AND ENID TO MEDICINE LODGE AND GREAT BEND KS. ANOTHER CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK IS TO REMOVE THE ENHANCED RISK FROM NE KS WHERE TODAY'S CONVECTION HAS IMPEDED DESTABILIZATION. HAVE FOCUSED THE SIGNIFICANT HAIL HATCHED AREA FROM WRN OK NWD INTO WRN AND CNTRL KS WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS CURRENTLY PRESENT.

..BROYLES.. 05/08/2016


Well, I certainly wasn't hoping for that - kinda opposite of what I was hoping would happen, in fact . . . off to clean the bathroom aka "the shelter".
giveing how sunny it is where the tornado watch is i think seeing strong long live tornados is a lot higher then what the SPC is thinking right now
Here's a quotation of part of a long post by one of my Facebook friends who was in Fort McMurray: "Around noon there was smoke across the valley, on the other side of the athabasca and clearwater rivers, we got a voluntary evac order and started packing up. within ten minutes the order became mandatory, the smoke had blocked out the sun, ashes and small burnt branches were falling on us from the other side of the river. We hit the gas station were chaos reigned. Then we went to grab my friends mom and was able to stop and help load a bunch of seniors from their wheel chairs on to school buses. We could now see flames behind the hospital and the fire had breached the highway and were forced to travel north. Camps started filling up and smoke had surrounded us. ... 73 kilometers took ten and half hours to get to with many crazy sights along the way. People running out of gas, accidents, people riding horses. They had opened south bound lanes on the highway to drive northbound. At one point I was changing from my flip flops to runners preparing for the possibility of having to abandon my car and run for my life, but luckily it didnt come to that but for some it did. The camp was crazy, thousands of people with babies and children with their few belongings, hundred of dogs, cats, bunies and lizards all packing in."
Here they come.
Quoting 332. Sfloridacat5:

Here they come.



,,, walkin' down the street. We get fearsome looks, from everyone we meet! Hey, hey we're hailstones, howling winds, and torrential rain. We don't mean to cause you trouble, and are sorry for inflicting pain . . . We might spin up tornados, sweeping people off of their feet, if you are lucky, we won't come down your street.
334. beell
Meanwhile, it is a nice and pleasant day in South Florida where we have had lows overnight in the 50's for 5 days straight.
The cell that's crossing highway 40 west of Oklahoma City looks to be rotating.
Quoting 338. Sfloridacat5:

The cell that's crossing highway 40 west of Oklahoma City looks to be rotating.



Local news has several of those storms rotating atm, but nothing too serious yet.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
521 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN GOVE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 521 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 12 MILES NORTH OF HEALY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
SOUTHWESTERN GOVE COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER
AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.



LAT...LON 3871 10068 3878 10074 3895 10053 3881 10037
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 232DEG 23KT 3877 10066

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.50IN



HUSTED
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
537 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL GOVE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT

* AT 537 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTH OF GOVE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GOVE AND PARK.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 IN KANSAS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 99 AND
100.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER
AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.



LAT...LON 3884 10051 3891 10057 3912 10037 3891 10020
TIME...MOT...LOC 2237Z 227DEG 26KT 3889 10049

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.50IN



HUSTED

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
537 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN NESS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT

* AT 537 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTH OF UTICA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
UTICA AROUND 550 PM CDT.
ARNOLD AROUND 600 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING ISSUED
FOR THE SAME AREA.

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A
VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.



LAT...LON 3863 9998 3851 10015 3855 10025 3860 10025
3870 10020 3870 10014
TIME...MOT...LOC 2237Z 216DEG 17KT 3858 10017

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...2.00IN
Kansas is really seeing a lot of action.
We're getting some great radar images this afternoon in the southern Plains; explosive supercell development and multiple classic supercell splits with left/right movers.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings


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Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING GOODLAND KS - KGLD 549 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

TORNADO WARNING     DODGE CITY KS - KDDC 549 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING HASTINGS NE - KGID 544 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING DODGE CITY KS - KDDC 543 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 542 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 538 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

TORNADO WARNING     DODGE CITY KS - KDDC 537 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

TORNADO WARNING     GOODLAND KS - KGLD 537 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
549 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN TREGO COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...
NORTH CENTRAL NESS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

* AT 548 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF ARNOLD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
15 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND BASEBALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
SOUTHWESTERN TREGO AND NORTH CENTRAL NESS COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A
VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.



LAT...LON 3877 9976 3865 10004 3869 10018 3870 10018
3870 10015 3875 10015 3888 10009
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 221DEG 14KT 3870 10007

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...2.75IN
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
557 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTHEASTERN GOVE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...  
 
* UNTIL 630 PM CDT  
 
* AT 556 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF  
QUINTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. AT 548 PM CDT...A  
RAIN WRAPPED TORNADO WAS REPORTED SOUTH OF GOVE.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
QUINTER.  
 
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 IN KANSAS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 103 AND  
113.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A  
BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY  
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE HOME...OR IN  
A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT  
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE  
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW!  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3885 10034 3900 10045 3913 10027 3913 10015  
3893 10015  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 227DEG 26KT 3899 10031  
 
TORNADO...OBSERVED  
HAIL...1.50IN  
 
 
 
HUSTED  
 
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College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings


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Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING DODGE CITY KS - KDDC 601 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING TOPEKA KS - KTOP 558 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016
Lets hope these cells approaching the Oklahoma City Metro area don't start dropping tornadoes.
Quoting 354. Sfloridacat5:

Lets hope these cells approaching the Oklahoma City Metro area don't start dropping tornadoes.



Tornado touched down just southwest of Lawton - tornado warning just issued on it.
Unfortunately we have our first tornado warning of the day in Oklahoma.
TORNADO WARNING
OKC031-082345-
/O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0013.160508T2309Z-160508T2345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
609 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN COMANCHE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 608 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF GERONIMO...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND BASEBALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTHEASTERN LAWTON AND GERONIMO.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 27 AND 34.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A STORM SHELTER...SAFE ROOM OR AN INTERIOR
ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A
MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3447 9856 3454 9856 3460 9824 3447 9824
3447 9829 3445 9830
TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 261DEG 22KT 3450 9848

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...2.75IN

$$

..SPEG.
Quoting 355. daddyjames:



Tornado touched down just southwest of Lawton - tornado warning just issued on it.


On the ground? Warning says radar indicated. Spotters on that storm with confirmation?
Quoting 358. Sfloridacat5:



On the ground? Warning says radar indicated. Spotters on that storm with confirmation?


KWTV (NEWS9) spotters/chasers reported it. Only for a short period of time.
That Lawton cell is a right turner. Very suspect for a tornado.
Fort Mac has pretty much been totalled by the forrest fire, it is expected to cross over into Sask tonight its the size of Boston, chicago and houston combined.
Quoting 361. Mikeylikesthesite:

Fort Mac has pretty much been totalled by the forrest fire, it is expected to cross over into Sask tonight its the size of Boston, chicago and houston combined.


Much of the city was spared by the actions of the firefighters. Yes, many, many homes were lost - especially in some of the outlying neighborhoods. But a good portion remain due to the actions of the firefighters.

Check it out yourself: LINK

blockquote class='blogquote'>Quoting 58. StormTrackerScott:



Damm!
Looks like conditions in Canada improved a little bit (for now):

'This is great firefighting weather': Alberta wildfire officials react to cooler temperatures
Debra Clark , CTV Edmonton, Last Updated Sunday, May 8, 2016 5:21PM MDT
With the wildfire in Alberta’s north still raging, cooler temperatures and a short rainfall provided much needed relief to crews on Sunday.
"With some help from mother nature and a bit of a break in the weather […] we were able to hold most of the line in Fort McMurray," said Chad Morrison with Alberta Wildfire.
Officials confirmed the blaze did not double in size as expected and has yet to reach Saskatchewan, offering one of the first signs of good news from the fire-scorched region since the blaze was discovered on May 1. ...

Whole article see link above.

Wildfire evacuees in northern B.C. allowed to return home
Geordon Omand, The Canadian Press
Published Sunday, May 8, 2016 6:50PM EDT
FORT ST. JOHN, B.C. -- Hundreds of people have been allowed to return to their homes in northeastern British Columbia after encroaching wildfires forced them to pack up and leave several days ago.
Still, an evacuation alert remains in place for more than 17,000 residences in two regions north of Fort St. John, where crews continue to battle a pair of uncontained flareups.
Ryan Turcot of BC Wildfire Service said residents near the Siphon Creek and the Beatton Airport Road fires must be ready to leave at a moment's notice should conditions deteriorate. ...
Bow nature of overall system along with all the isolated super cells is going to make this a long next couple hours as we begin to hit peak tornado potential. Beginning to form a line further north in Kansas, but parts of Oklahoma and Kansas still have numerous isolated super cells.
This is how ISRO is mapping the heatwave in South India
By: Express Web Desk | New Delhi | Updated: May 8, 2016 9:21 pm
The map offers four varying intensities of the heatwave as No Heatwave, Heatwave, Severe and Extreme. These intensities are colour coded.



As the heat wave engulfs more people in its deathly tirade, the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) has started an interactive ‘heat-wave visualization’ map on its Indian Geo-Platform Bhuvan, monitoring the intensity of the heatwave in the states of Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and Telangana. ...
Link to the heatwave map.
Big game in OKC tonight too. Hope those cells west of OKC area don't explode.
Tornado down again in the Lawton, OK area.
With some wet weather news good night from Europe!

About 2,500 People Evacuated in Dominican Republic Flooding
By The Associated Press, ANTO DOMINGO, Dominican Republic — May 8, 2016, 5:42 PM ET

Australia: Flooding and wind warning for Victoria
May 9, 20167:49am

Update: Massive rain amounts in Wyoming cause flooding

Posted: May 08, 2016 5:34 PM
Quoting 367. DeepSeaRising:

Big game in OKC tonight too. Hope those cells west of OKC area don't explode.


Most of the storms heading towards the OKC metro area appear to be weakening. So, all looks good at the moment for that area.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
710 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

KSC051-090030-
/O.CON.KDDC.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-160509T0030Z/
ELLIS KS-
710 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN
ELLIS COUNTY...

AT 708 PM CDT...A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED
8 MILES NORTH OF CATHERINE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. RDDAR
INDICATED ANOTHER POTENTIAL TORNADO DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST ELLIS
COUNTY.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
TORNADO IS DEVELOPING. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO
A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3904 9904 3888 9934 3902 9948 3913 9932
3913 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 0008Z 233DEG 31KT 3906 9923

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL...2.75IN
372. IDTH

Ha. Wrong post quoted.
Dear JustmeHouston:

Boy, the northern counties of SE Texas can't seem to get a break from these strong thunderstorms. Check out this HGX disco:

MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SE TX ON
MONDAY FROM THE SW TO THE NE AND SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN THE BEST
INSTABILITY/LIFT IS PRESENT. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH. IN THE WAKE OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WEAK
DISTURBANCES ALOFT COULD PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS.
..BUT THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME ON THURSDAY
WHEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO SE TX AND STALL
PRODUCING A CHC OF RAIN AREAWIDE. A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL DEVELOP OVR THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH LITTLE CHC OF RAIN AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED.


Whaddya think?
looks like today nado event has been a bust looks like the SPC did make the right call for re moving the MOD risk when they did has it would have been a bust
Quoting 375. unknowncomic:


This is a realistic forecast based on climatology, anyway. Though typical May rain scenarios have been anything but typical for a while now .....
One for the Mothers Globally,

and my Mother, Her fav lullaby to me and my sister.


Goodnight Irene, I'll see you in my dream's.


Quoting 310. plantmoretrees:

Rough slog up to 4700' on the East side of Mt Baker. Warm and melting. Tons of pollen. Cant recall a more difficult hike of only 6.5 miles rt and 2000' elevation gain, so many trees down over the trail, mud and nasty roots everywhere, brushy, steep, and slushy snow. But worth it!


Gee willikers. Why not start at 4,700' or so at the parking lot at the edge of the wilderness area and walk up from there? I've spent some time on Mt. Baker. Your slog sounds like not much fun to me. The high ground is the place to be. Crampons on! :)
Left-splitting supercells galore across Oklahoma this afternoon limited the tornado potential despite the adequate moisture return, instability, and wind shear.

Tomorrow looks like another day with the potential for strong tornadoes, but we'll see. 10% hatched tornado days (which is what the D1 outlook will probably indicate) are finding every way possible to bust this year.
Quoting 381. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Left-splitting supercells galore across Oklahoma this afternoon limited the tornado potential despite the adequate moisture return, instability, and wind shear.

Tomorrow looks like another day with the potential for strong tornadoes, but we'll see. 10% hatched tornado days (which is what the D1 outlook will probably indicate) are finding every way possible to bust this year.


seems like we do better in the fall and winter for strong tornados but when spring comes its a bust
Quoting 372. IDTH:



Cold AMO days a coming. Ready?
Quoting 372. IDTH:





I disagree with that forecast in so many ways... and not just the Atlantic.
www.co2.earth

April CO2 407.57



April 2016: 407.57 ppm

April 2015: 403.45 ppm


Happy Monday, everyone.

Aditional thunderstorms are expected to form overnight across the Big Country and North Texas. Some of those storms could be strong with small hail, frequent cloud to ground lightning, and brief heavy rain, but the overall severe weather risk will be lower compared to activity earlier this afternoon. Most of this activity should weaken by the mid-morning hours Monday.

Much of the severe weather risk today will be confined to eastern sections of North Texas, all of Northeast Texas, and northern sections of East Texas. There is a category 1 risk of severe weather includes Central Texas, the Brazos Valley, and Southeast Texas. I think a strong cap will limit overall thunderstorm potential in those regions. The cap will be weaker across Northeast Texas and that region will be closest to the upper level lift needed to erode the cap. The SPC has placed an enhanced risk of severe weather – category 3 on a 5 level scale – that includes Sherman, Paris, Texarkana, Sulphur Springs, Tyler, Longview, and Marshall. The standard category 2 severe weather risk includes the D/FW Metroplex and Lufkin. There’s a pretty tight gradient from category 1 to category 3 due to the expected cap that will keep storm coverage limited with southward extent.

Was this helpful?




Another forecast item we’ll be keeping a close eye on is the dryline’s position tomorrow afternoon. If the dryline ends up further west than currently forecast the severe weather risk will likewise also shift west. Since the dryline will be somewhere over D/FW that 20 mile shift west or east will dictate a lot. That positioning is something we’ll refine on Monday morning. Regardless of the dryline’s position we anticipate thunderstorms will begin developing after 3 PM just to its east. Those developing storms could intensify quickly and become severe. Large hail up to the size of tennis balls and localized damaging wind gusts over 60 MPH would be possible with the strongest storms tomorrow afternoon and evening. The risk for a few tornadoes will exist in the enhanced risk zone where low-level wind shear will be stronger. In addition we’ll have to keep an eye out for any outflow boundaries left over from storms tonight since those can enhanced low-level wind shear
Quoting 385. Patrap:

www.co2.earth

April CO2 407.57



April 2016: 407.57 ppm

April 2015: 403.45 ppm





Still rising Patrap. I hate to see what is going to happen when it hits 500...

Quoting 380. rayduray2013:


Gee willikers. Why not start at 4,700' or so at the parking lot at the edge of the wilderness area and walk up from there? I've spent some time on Mt. Baker. Your slog sounds like not much fun to me. The high ground is the place to be. Crampons on! :)



No open road above 4000' or so and that is at the ski area with the masses. The Boulder ridge trail was the only trail in the Mt Baker area that I had never been on, and I actually really enjoy a good rough bit of exercise. Sometimes the more difficult trail has the larger reward.

Easy going really once we hit the snow, felt like we had the whole mtn to ourselves.
carib.trough.retrograding
Good Morning. I spent the weekend in South Florida for family graduation events and Mother's Day and did not get a chance to look at the news or weather since Friday. Here are the storm reports from yesterday:
today Filtered Reports Graphic
And here is the Convective Outlook and forecast for today:

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
321 AM EDT Mon May 09 2016

Valid 12Z Mon May 09 2016 - 12Z Wed May 11 2016

...Strong to severe thunderstorms possible from the southern and central
Great Plains to the lower and mid Mississippi Valley...

...Heavy rainfall accumulations possible for portions of the Midwest and
northern High Plains...

...Locally heavy snows possible for portions of the northern Rockies late
Monday into Tuesday...


And finally the current look and Jet position contributing to the straight line wind threat today regardless of how a significant tornado threat may or may not evolve:

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

In the tropics closer to home (Atlantic and eastern E-Pac), sheer is howling on the Atlantic side of things but the ITCZ across the Central Atlantic and moving over Central America into the Epac is very healthy looking at this time:




As you guys know I like look @ the SOI in terms of gauging ENSO and it appears there is a huge rise in the SOI coming which means El-Nino will be gone very soon as the Indian Ocean/W Pac begin to see enhanced convection focused across those regions.

Quoting 395. StormTrackerScott:

As you guys know I like look @ the SOI in terms of gauging ENSO and it appears there is a huge rise in the SOI coming which means El-Nino will be gone very soon as the Indian Ocean/W Pac begin to see enhanced convection focused across those regions.




Good morning Scott-

What are your thoughts for the 2016 Atlantic season?
I'm sorry but I disagree with this post as intensity models have been worthless lately. Prime example of this was Juaquin last year infact it was only the Euro who picked up on this system potentially blowing up in the Bahamas.

LOL Then you have that one small system that blew up to a cat 3 in the MDR last August despite unfavorable conditions which models only showed reaching at most a weak TS. My point is don't come on here with a post saying intensity forecast are better infact IMO they have gotten worse. Maybe the upgrades done to the Euro and GFS will help during this upcoming hurricane season.
Quoting 396. rmbjoe1954:



Good morning Scott-

What are your thoughts for the 2016 Atlantic season?


I think its going to be very active across the Gulf/FL. This was front page of the Orlando Sentinel on Saturday as the paper was urging residents to prepare for what could be a long and active season.
not sure how 2016 atlantic hurricane season will evolve. some say 1994. not sure about that i remember that yr as fickle and weak. 2016 i believe will be more vibrant.
Track forecasting has improved significantly but intensity forecast have been in the trash. Katrina was forecast to be 70mph storm and head toward Nola then exploded as she entered S FL then really took off as she moved away from the Keys as a Cat 5. My point lots and lots of work to do in that department and it may never be fixed atleast in our lifetime.
felix in the western carib. was another overachiever . lucky he did not turn north.
Quoting 402. islander101010:

felix in the western carib. was another overachiever. lucky he did not turn north.


What's with everyone's obsession with the Gulf Coast on this blog? Did 2004 and 2005 really solidify it that much?
a character last week blamed climate change because they had too much beautiful weather. okay
Quoting 397. StormTrackerScott:

I'm sorry but I disagree with this post as intensity models have been worthless lately. Prime example of this was Juaquin last year infact it was only the Euro who picked up on this system potentially blowing up in the Bahamas.

LOL Then you have that one small system that blew up to a cat 3 in the MDR last August despite unfavorable conditions which models only showed reaching at most a weak TS. My point is don't come on here with a post saying intensity forecast are better infact IMO they have gotten worse. Maybe the upgrades done to the Euro and GFS will help during this upcoming hurricane season.
As with climate change predictions and El Nino forecasts, empirical evidence overrules opinion-based disagreements. Every time. In his post, Dr. Masters included a couple of evidence-based charts and graphs that clearly show the overall improvements over time in both track and intensity. Of course, as with any such forecasts, there will always be outliers to which one can point and say, "See? It's not perfect!" But those outliers are just that: outliers. That is, they fall outside the majority. And for the majority, forecasts have improved.
I am really fearing a storm in the Gulf this year, as Years after an el Nino, 1983(Even though we were still sorta in one), 1992, 1995, 1998, 2005, 2008(2007 was a La Nina in the end but it continued through 08) have all had Gulf or Florida landfalls. I would be on the lookout for a Ivan, Dennis, Wilma type storm that sneaks up on the Gulf Coast of Florida. The NW Caribbean are STEAMING for this time of year and no storm has really taken advantage of the SSTs in the area for almost 3-4 years. I think the Gulf and Atlantic Coast of the US need to be cautious this year, and yes I know every year everyone needs to be on the lookout, people were very lucky with Joaquin last year, though not the Bahamas itself, but I would just be a bit more cautious this year.
Amazing how the western Caribbean has been locked in dry air for so long....
Quoting 394. weathermanwannabe:

In the tropics closer to home (Atlantic and eastern E-Pac), sheer is howling on the Atlantic side of things but the ITCZ across the Central Atlantic and moving over Central America into the Epac is very healthy looking at this time:





Quoting 405. Neapolitan:

As with climate change predictions and El Nino forecasts, empirical evidence overrules opinion-based disagreements. Every time. In his post, Dr. Masters included a couple of evidence-based charts and graphs that clearly show the overall improvements over time in both track and intensity. Of course, as with any such forecasts, there will always be outliers to which one can point and say, "See? It's not perfect!" But those outliers are just that: outliers. That is, they fall outside the majority. And for the majority, forecasts have improved.
To paraphrase the recent Burger King ads ($1.49 pssh. Nuggets? pssh). Evidence? pssh. Facts. Pssh... My metaphysical feels are so much righter than your facts.
The upcoming 2016 and 2017 Atlantic hurricane seasons are going to be interesting.

We might see an "average" number of named storms form. It is possible we will have 10-13 named storms form during each year.

Although the hurricane intensity models are improving, we still have to be ready for the next Charley (2004), or Andrew (1992). Both hurricanes rapidly intensified just offshore, before moving inland - into populated areas.

What I fear is another hurricane season like we observed in 1985. After the powerful El Nino of 1982-83, the Atlantic basin saw more activity the following 2 years.

1984: 12 named storms formed. Hurricane Diana hit North Carolina.

1985: 11 named storms formed in the Atlantic basin, but there were 6 landfalling US hurricanes!

Danny, Elena, Juan - and Kate (a rare November hurricane landfall), struck the US Gulf Coast, and Bob and Gloria slammed the Atlantic seaboard.

Elena and Juan had some of the most unpredictable hurricane tracks ever observed.

Always be ready for the next "big one."

Quoting 405. Neapolitan:

As with climate change predictions and El Nino forecasts, empirical evidence overrules opinion-based disagreements. Every time. In his post, Dr. Masters included a couple of evidence-based charts and graphs that clearly show the overall improvements over time in both track and intensity. Of course, as with any such forecasts, there will always be outliers to which one can point and say, "See? It's not perfect!" But those outliers are just that: outliers. That is, they fall outside the majority. And for the majority, forecasts have improved.


Track forecast yes Nea but to say intensity forecast have improved is a bit of a stretch. Intensity forecast has been almost embarrassing lately.
Just noting on the hurricane issue that the last one to impact the Gulf (one of the most vulnerable regions of the US coast) was Cat 1 Issac in 2012 and that the US has not seen a major strike in several years now.  Not what we would have expected but the point is that we just do not know what this season will bring in spite of what may appear to be an above-average season based on current observations.  Many of us on here, including myself, have talked about the feeling that the "big one" is going to hit this year (previous years) and that has been/was is a logical assumption given several Enso Neutral seasons and ripe ssts (particularly in the Gulf) but that outcome never materialized...........But we did see several strong tropical storms and a few hurricanes (non-majors) cause massive flooding and loss of life and property in the past several seasons in the Caribbean and US.

Our luck (for the US and Caribbean) has to run out (statistically) in terms of a major impact but all we can do is follow each storm cone-by-cone and prepare accordingly; none of us can assume that a major is going to impact the US or Caribbean this season.    
Quoting 410. StormTrackerScott:



Track forecast yes Nea but to say intensity forecast have improved is a bit of a stretch. Intensity forecast has been almost embarrassing lately.


You are going to have to provide some analysis that differs from the actual analysis posted above. The 24 hour intensity forecast improved last year, the 48 hour was slightly worse (less than 5 kph) while the 96 - 120 hr were much worse (these comparisons from 2014-2015). Overall, the trend for all intensity forecasts over the long term have been massive improvement. You can disagree, but only arm waving in the face of evidence isn't going to get you far. It looks like you are cherry picking cases to support your argument while ignoring the others.
Quoting 410. StormTrackerScott:



Track forecast yes Nea but to say intensity forecast have improved is a bit of a stretch. Intensity forecast has been almost embarrassing lately.
Quoting 397. StormTrackerScott:

I'm sorry but I disagree with this post as intensity models have been worthless lately. Prime example of this was Juaquin last year infact it was only the Euro who picked up on this system potentially blowing up in the Bahamas.

LOL Then you have that one small system that blew up to a cat 3 in the MDR last August despite unfavorable conditions which models only showed reaching at most a weak TS. My point is don't come on here with a post saying intensity forecast are better infact IMO they have gotten worse. Maybe the upgrades done to the Euro and GFS will help during this upcoming hurricane season.


Worthless? Much like certain forecasts that were made about El Nino developing that were - oh, about a year off . . .
414. VR46L
Problem is its the bust forecasts that stick in peoples minds

Erika ERIKA Graphics Archive Was supposed to be a cane in Florida ....

Jaoquin JOAQUIN Graphics Archive Was not supposed to be as strong or as far south as it got on first initialization


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Link
Quoting 403. KoritheMan:


What's with everyone's obsession with the Gulf Coast on this blog? Did 2004 and 2005 really solidify it that much?
yes
Quoting 413. daddyjames:



Worthless? Much like certain forecasts that were made about El Nino developing that were - oh, about a year off . . .
Quoting 58. StormTrackerScott:



Damm!

Quoting 414. VR46L:

Problem is its the bust forecasts that stick in peoples minds

Erika ERIKA Graphics Archive Was supposed to be a cane in Florida ....

Jaoquin JOAQUIN Graphics Archive Was not supposed to be as strong or as far south as it got on first initialization


Agreed, the one they (NHC) get spot on is not memorable, especially if it doesn't greatly affect us on a personal level.
Current satellite estimate of the Ft. McMurray fire with hot spots from the last 24 hours indicated.
Good news, the fire did not expand as great as had been anticipated over the weekend. The most active areas continue to move away from populated areas. The "hole-punches" shown within the fire perimeter show the excellent efforts of the firefighters battling the blaze, and it seems as if they think they can gain some control over the fire. By the numbers . . .

Canada wildfire: Tearful firefighter praises 'heroes'



Quoting 414. VR46L:

Problem is its the bust forecasts that stick in peoples minds

Erika ERIKA Graphics Archive Was supposed to be a cane in Florida ....

Jaoquin JOAQUIN Graphics Archive Was not supposed to be as strong or as far south as it got on first initialization


Yes some like to focus, and over-inflate, all the times people swing and miss. In their mind, Ted Williams sucked at baseball. After all, in his best season, he missed the ball 2/3rd's of the time.
421. elioe
For the next 16 days, Indian Ocean is really the hotspot of tropical activity. Impacts possible along Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal coasts, anywhere from Oman to Myanmar. Impacts possible also in Madagascar.



A cyclone forming near Maldives is supported by multiple models. The operational GFS run shows it intensifying to Cat 5, then making landfall somewhere uncomfortably close to Mumbai...

Quoting 390. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning. I spent the weekend in South Florida for family graduation events and Mother's Day and did not get a chance to look at the news or weather since Friday. Here are the storm reports from yesterday:
today Filtered Reports Graphic


Interesting here in OK, Lawton had severe hail and flash flooding as well as a couple of tornado touchdowns (in rural areas) that were documented on tv by chasers (NEWS9) KWTV.

Storms cause flooding in Lawton


Not to mention some non-weather related events:

Quakes Rattle Northern Oklahoma

Quoting 410. StormTrackerScott:



Track forecast yes Nea but to say intensity forecast have improved is a bit of a stretch. Intensity forecast has been almost embarrassing lately.


I don't know about embarrassing but it goes to show how difficult intensity forecasting is when you have a team of really smart and highly educated forecasters trying to provide the best and most accurate forecast.
Quoting 412. Naga5000:



You are going to have to provide some analysis that differs from the actual analysis posted above. The 24 hour intensity forecast improved last year, the 48 hour was slightly worse (less than 5 kph) while the 96 - 120 hr were much worse (these comparisons from 2014-2015). Overall, the trend for all intensity forecasts over the long term have been massive improvement. You can disagree, but only arm waving in the face of evidence isn't going to get you far. It looks like you are cherry picking cases to support your argument while ignoring the others.


Well, if they'd provide actual numbers for each year, so that they could be tallied, we could do that analysis. Instead, all you can do is look at the graph and make an estimate for each year to the nearest whole number, then divide by the total number of years in the sample, which isn't perfect.

Nevertheless, I took a stab at it for the 48 hour forecast (green line), from 1990 to 2002 (13 years), and 2003 to 2015 (13 years).

1990 -2002 14 20 20 15 15 14 15 14 17 16 17 16 15 Average 16 kts error
2003-2015 12 15 16 15 18 14 18 17 16 14 10 10 12 Average 14.4 kts error

So, the 48 hour intensity forecast for the last 13 years has improved by 1.6 kts, compared to the previous 13 years. Given the small sample size and small margin of improvement, I doubt that a statistician would regard this as statistically significant, although it probably does indicate a trend towards improvement.
Quoting 390. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning. I spent the weekend in South Florida for family graduation events and Mother's Day and did not get a chance to look at the news or weather since Friday. Here are the storm reports from yesterday:
today Filtered Reports Graphic


You accidentally posted today's storm report map. Hey, honest mistake. Here's how the weekend storm reports went. Saturday was the over achiever. It was a lower risk day and ended up producing more tornadoes and more total storm reports.


Nice spin south of PR. Tail has broken off front and sure is beginning to look interesting. There is no shear window for this little feature to do anything with though.
Quoting 424. yonzabam:



Well, if they'd provide actual numbers for each year, so that they could be tallied, we could do that analysis. Instead, all you can do is look at the graph and make an estimate for each year to the nearest whole number, then divide by the total number of years in the sample, which isn't perfect.

Nevertheless, I took a stab at it for the 48 hour forecast (green line), from 1990 to 2002 (13 years), and 2003 to 2015 (13 years).

1990 -2002 14 20 20 15 15 14 15 14 17 16 17 16 15 Average 16 kts error
2003-2015 12 15 16 15 18 14 18 17 16 14 10 10 12 Average 14.4 kts error

So, the 48 hour intensity forecast for the last 13 years has improved by 1.6 kts, compared to the previous 13 years. Given the small sample size and small margin of improvement, I doubt that a statistician would regard this as statistically significant, although it probably does indicate a trend towards improvement.


Also, there is this caveat - mentioned in the blog above:

The 2015 numbers may be skewed because of the relatively few number of forecasts made last year, as NHC made forecasts as far out as five days for only four storms, two of which proved difficult to forecast--Danny and Joaquin.

A small sample size, 4, with half being outliers, 2, tends to give you dubious stats.
It seems to me that the multi-year and ongoing drought in South America -- known by a few to have affected the past several hurricane seasons -- hasn't been talked about nearly so much as other factors like SAL. Now that we're this close to season-start and everyone seems to concerned, I'd be happy to see an article discussing that drought, its known/speculated impacts on hurricane season, causes, whether this appears to be something that will continue, etc.

I'm sorry if this is boring to some but, for my part, I love it when I can get a holistic view of the factors impacting/expected to impact the ATL hurricane season.
Quoting 421. elioe:

For the next 16 days, Indian Ocean is really the hotspot of tropical activity. Impacts possible along Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal coasts, anywhere from Oman to Myanmar.


Lots of uncertainty in the long range. Sticking to the 5 day this is what the models show:







The Euro doesn't develop a system until a little later, but in the same area as the GFS. The UKMET isn't developing a system in the next 144 hours. Will have to wait a few days or so until we can get a good model consensus on development as they seem to be in disagreement with the timing, intensity and location.
Quoting 428. OrchidGrower:

It seems to me that the multi-year and ongoing drought in South America -- known by a few to have affected the past several hurricane seasons -- hasn't been talked about nearly so much as other factors like SAL. Now that we're this close to season-start and everyone seems to concerned, I'd be happy to see an article discussing that drought, its known/speculated impacts on hurricane season, causes, whether this appears to be something that will continue, etc.

I'm sorry if this is boring to some but, for my part, I love it when I can get a holistic view of the factors impacting/expected to impact the ATL hurricane season.


There is recent research regarding a link between on-going drought in Northeastern South America and hurricane activity. I am not sure if there has been enough time to follow up on it, though.


[PDF] from escholarship.org
Tropical North Atlantic ocean‐atmosphere interactions synchronize forest carbon losses from hurricanes and Amazon fires
Quoting 403. KoritheMan:



What's with everyone's obsession with the Gulf Coast on this blog? Did 2004 and 2005 really solidify it that much?
Oh the irony!!
Quoting 387. Dakster:



Still rising Patrap. I hate to see what is going to happen when it hits 500...




The tipping point may be somewhat lower or higher than 500. I expect to live long enough to see it even though I'm 58.


Rare Seal Pups Stranded on Shrinking Arctic Ice

As the sea ice on which it depends breaks apart, the Baltic ringed seal of northern Europe is declining fast, experts say.

Although hunting has been banned since the 1980s and pollution has decreased, the population in the Gulf of Finland has dwindled to about 10,000 due to a new threat—shrinking ice, according to the Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission.
‘The Trend Is Real’

As the ocean heats up due to global warming, Arctic sea ice has been locked in a downward spiral. Since the late 1970s, the ice has retreated by 12 percent per decade, worsening after 2007, according to NASA.

Ice extent in the Baltic Sea has decreased by 20 percent in the past hundred years, and the length of ice season in the Gulf of Finland shortened by 41 days, the Baltic commission reports.


Link
Quoting 414. VR46L:

Problem is its the bust forecasts that stick in peoples minds

Erika ERIKA Graphics Archive Was supposed to be a cane in Florida ....

Jaoquin JOAQUIN Graphics Archive Was not supposed to be as strong or as far south as it got on first initialization


I am still curious to know why everyone but EC got Joaquin grossly wrong. With friends in the Central Bahamas who were devastated by the further south and west and slower track, it's of special interest.
Quoting 431. StormTrackerScott:



Trump 2016. Hillary better get ready as she has lots of flaws her and Bill infact.


I also expect Trump to be our next president. Won't state an opinion on it.. just a forecast


and more reliable than the 2016 hurricane stats/numbers forecast I'm not bothering to pollute the blog with (no value from mine.. I don't play these games)
437. elioe
Quoting 429. Envoirment:

Will have to wait a few days or so until we can get a good model consensus on development as they seem to be in disagreement with the timing, intensity and location.


What will eventually happen, is by no means certain. However, even with all the disagreement, so many models and ensemble members are predicting something to form, that I'd state: risk of getting tropical cyclone impacts in that region during late May is higher than suggested by climatology alone.
Quoting 414. VR46L:

Problem is its the bust forecasts that stick in peoples minds

Erika ERIKA Graphics Archive Was supposed to be a cane in Florida ....

Jaoquin JOAQUIN Graphics Archive Was not supposed to be as strong or as far south as it got on first initialization
Thanks for this.I hope we don't have another Joaquin,where in this case it heads towards a more populated area after being forecast to only be a T.S.The first advisory was actually for the storm to dissipate completely while only forecasting it to be a T.D at best out in the middle of nowhere.In the end it was a high end cat 4 that did horrible damage to the Bahamas.
Quoting 431. StormTrackerScott:



Trump 2016. Hillary better get ready as she has lots of flaws her and Bill infact.
Feel the Bern.
Quoting 436. georgevandenberghe:



I also expect Trump to be our next president. Won't state an opinion on it.. just a forecast


and more reliable than the 2016 hurricane stats/numbers forecast I'm not bothering to pollute the blog with (no value from mine.. I don't play these games)
If we're going Idiocracy, might as go all the way. I'm voting for Hector Elizondo Mountain Dew Herbert Camacho.
If Trump wins then fear, anger, misinformation, racism, and at it's heart; fascism will carry the day. Truth, unity, and common sense will be replaced with lies, division, and ignorance. We will show to the rest of the world and to all of our minorities in the US that we are still a Jim Crow nation. Not only against blacks, but Muslims and Hispanics now too. We don't live in a post racial society, with voting rights being gutted and what we're seeing with the support for Trump; we are headed the opposite direction. The veil has been removed and the rest of the world is saying, "Americans are exactly who we thought they were". This makes us far weaker as a nation and any moral standard baring is surely replaced with this absolutely misplaced support of Trump.
So how 'bout that weather? Anyone...anyone?
We're back in D.C again and some of my plants sustained damage from the hail from last week and right now its dreary and cool.After spending sometime down in 80-90 degree weather my body is still getting use to the temperature difference up here.Looks like rain is in the forecast for the entire week.When people in D.C beg for rain we get it...A LOT.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
One cannot win the Presidency as a loon nor polling in the Hispanic community at 16%.

No GOP President was ever elected without 35% of them good folks.

Trump is the anti-Amercan from Nam deferments to no idea what Foreign Policy is.

His view on AGW is funny though.

LoL
445. VR46L
Quoting 438. washingtonian115:

Thanks for this.I hope we don't have another Joaquin,where in this case it heads towards a more populated area after being forecast to only be a T.S.The first advisory was actually for the storm to dissipate completely while only forecasting it to be a T.D at best out in the middle of nowhere.In the end it was a high end cat 4 that did horrible damage to the Bahamas.


No problem ... If you manipulate the URL you can see the predicted track of every storm since 2012 ...

My personal favourite of a bust forecast ... Remember Debbie was supposed to go to Texas .... and went to Florida instead

Debbie

446. vis0
Quoting 397. StormTrackerScott:

I'm sorry but I disagree with this post as intensity models have been worthless lately. Prime example of this was Juaquin last year infact it was only the Euro who picked up on this system potentially blowing up in the Bahamas.

LOL Then you have that one small system that blew up to a cat 3 in the MDR last August despite unfavorable conditions which models only showed reaching at most a weak TS. My point is don't come on here with a post saying intensity forecast are better infact IMO they have gotten worse. Maybe the upgrades done to the Euro and GFS will help during this upcoming hurricane season.
reply on my zilly blog pg.8 cmmnt#405 (don't agree fully  but leaning towards STS thinking ((Intensity side of things)  as to strive for the best not just "good enough" or "good". Of course i have my ml-d reasoning as to why if one looks at graphs after 2009 it really is worse as its so zig zaggy that if one writes this blog just 600 days ago it would be a blog on how bad it is, STS is talking 'bout consistency THAT shows up when things are truly correct like the co2 rising and rising, Global temperatures rising and rising never truly cooling but these models are zig zagging...back to "vacationing" (hang out in my friends apt upstairs)