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The Fort McMurray Disaster: Getting Beyond “Is It Climate Change?”

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 3:49 PM GMT on May 05, 2016

In just two days, the fire engulfing the Canadian city of Fort McMurray in Alberta has seared itself into the North American consciousness. This appears to be the first time in the continent’s history we have seen a city of more than 60,000 residents (officially an “urban service area” rather than a city), located hundreds of miles from any comparable population center, forced to evacuate a furious wildfire. The fact that a city this large is also so remote owes everything to the presence of vast oil sands, the driver that has increased Fort McMurray’s population more than twentyfold since the 1960s. As of Thursday morning, May 5, more than 1,600 structures had been destroyed and 7,500 hectares (18,500 acres) burned as the fire continued to burn out of control. According to Reuters, a hotel north of the airport's main terminal had caught fire, but as the sun rose on Thursday, there was no obvious damage to the airport. There were no deaths from the blaze, but fatalities were reported in at least one vehicle crash along the evacuation route. Weather conditions in Fort McMurray on Wednesday were hellacious for firefighting--a high of 89°F, humidities as low as 7%, and powerful winds sustained at speeds as high as 34 mph, gusting to 45 mph. Thursday's weather is not going to be as bad, with highs in the upper 60s and west-northwest winds of 10 - 20 mph. There is no rain in the forecast until next Wednesday, and temperatures are predicted to once again rise above 80°F in breezy conditions on Saturday. The average high for this time of year is just 59°F.


Figure 1. Smoke rises at Fort McMurray in Alberta, Canada on May 4, 2016. Pyrocumulus clouds formed by major wildfires can sometimes develop into pyrocumulunimbus clouds intense enough to generate lightning, hail, high winds, and tornadoes. Image credit: @tamarackaspenbirch/Instagram.

A fire wildly out of season
The Fort McMurray fire arrived months ahead of when summer wildfire typically races through the boreal forests of northern Alberta. A low-pressure center arcing far north of a typical early-May track brought hot southwest winds across the Fort McMurray region, which lies within the southern edge of the great boreal forests of northern Canada. Fort McMurray saw record daily highs of 91°F on Tuesday and 89°F on Wednesday. The city gets this warm on only about five days in a typical year, and those days are usually in July or August (even then, the average daily high is between 70°F and 75°F). The hot weather struck at an uncommonly bad time for wildfire risk: after winter snows had disappeared, but before the summer green-up had taken hold. Normally the window between these would be quite narrow, but snowfall was light this winter across the region, and it disappeared quickly during record warmth in April. From December through April, Fort McMurray recorded only 1.69” of precipitation, compared to the 1981-2010 average for that period of 3.22”.


Figure 2. Wildfire danger for Canada on May 5, 2016, from the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Record heat, strong winds, and dryness due to below-average winter snows and the lack of spring snow cover have conspired to produce extreme fire danger over much of Alberta and Saskatchewan.

El Niño, climate change, and The Question
It’s not rocket science to connect the dots between the preconditions for the Fort McMurray fire and large-scale, long-term trends. High northern latitudes are among the planet’s most rapidly warming regions, just as predicted by climate models that incorporate human-produced greenhouse gases. The advance of Northern Hemisphere snowfall in autumn and winter has seen little significant change--if anything, there is a bit more autumn snow cover (see Figure 3 below)--but in springtime, the snowpack is vanishing far more quickly than it did in decades past, another outcome well predicted by global climate models. On top of all this, El Niño tends to produce warm Canadian winters, so the strong 2015-16 El Niño event added a hot spike to the long-term drumbeat of winter warming across western Canada. This year’s warmth has extended from the Pacific Northwest (where Portland, OR, and Seattle, WA just completed their warmest April on record) to Alaska (where Anchorage saw below-average temperatures on just 3 of the year’s first 124 days, a truly remarkable stretch).


Figure 3. Trends in Northern Hemisphere snow cover since the late 1960s, shown as departures from the monthly average extent in millions of square kilometers for October and November (top) and April and May (bottom). The snow cover last month was the least extensive for any April in the 50-year record. Image credit: Rutgers Global Snow Lab.

Wildfire: the climate plot thickens
Catastrophic wildfire is more than a temperature or precipitation anomaly. Time and again, an intense spell of record heat after weeks of warm, dry weather sets the stage for devastating wildfire. Along with this, there are other preconditions: Is the landscape packed with tinder-dry trees? Has the area burned in recent years or decades? Are local firefighters well equipped to put out small fires quickly? Are there arsonists and copycats lurking in the wings? All of these cofactors make it more difficult to draw a straight line from climate change to specific wildland fires. It’s much the same with flooding, another natural disaster influenced by how humans shape the landscape. Study after study has established that bursts of intense rainfall are becoming heavier in many parts of the world, as predicted by climate change research. Yet the human factors that feed into flooding (urban pavement, river channeling, and the like) complicate the task of attributing a particular flood to climate change.

None of this absolves human-produced greenhouse gases from loading the dice toward fire- and flood-friendly conditions. Rather, it’s to say that even the most elaborate, carefully conducted attribution studies (research designed to show how and when climate change has made a particular event more likely) may not always give the conclusive results people crave when it comes to specific fires and floods--although such work can say quite a bit about long-term trends. In fact, one of the first major attribution studies was ”Detecting the effect of climate change on Canadian forest fires,” a 2004 paper led by Nathan Gillett, which showed a detectable human influence on the area burned by wildfire in Canada between 1959 and 1999. In its February report ”Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change”, the National Academies notes that fire season has lengthened by an average of 19% globally, with increases noted across more than 25% of Earth’s vegetated land area. “What is less clear,” the report adds, “is how climate warming is driving changes in the atmospheric circulation and its teleconnections, resulting in persistent areas of high pressure that lead to large fire years on regional scales. Similarly, it is unclear how climate warming is regulating the shorter-term weather patterns that control extreme fire periods during which fires expand rapidly.”

What do we do?
We don’t need attribution studies to realize that our struggling firefighting resources must be brought up to speed to match the evolving picture of longer fire seasons and more dangerous fires. A U.S. Forest Service report issued last summer sounded the alarm: “...within a decade, the agency will spend more than two-thirds of its budget to battle ever-increasing fires, while mission-critical programs that can help prevent fires in the first place such as forest restoration and watershed and landscape management will continue to suffer. Meanwhile...these catastrophic blazes are projected to burn twice as many acres by 2050.” It is no small irony that Wednesday, May 4, was International Firefighters Day.

In their deadline coverage of the Fort McMurray event, journalists such as Andrew Freedman (Mashable) have done a laudable job pointing out the complex but real connections between climate change and wildfire. We have much more to learn about exactly why and how the atmosphere is moving in directions that favor devastating fire--but for now, perhaps it’s enough simply to know that the dice are being loaded. Together with the many other threats posed by climate change, this should be more than enough motivation to get serious about emission cuts. The vast and profound effects of human-produced greenhouse gases--from intensified downpours and drought impacts to ocean acidification and sea-level rise--call for a sustained commitment to change that transcends any single disaster, even one as compelling as the nightmare unfolding in Fort McMurray.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters


Video 1. Dashcam footage taken by Michel Chamberland as he evacuates the hard-hit Beacon Hill neighborhood of Fort McMurray, Alberta, on May 3, 2016, at 2 pm. Huge flames leap out along the roadside, and embers fall over the traffic. Chamberland told CBC he was feeling "pretty empty, saddened, devastated, shocked. Still trying to take in the whole situation and what happened. You just never, never expect this."


Climate Change Fire Drought Extreme Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson. Sad to hear about this tradegy.
The AGW forcing's are the focus Globally as we continue to add CO2 to the Biosphere non-stop 24/7/365.



Here's a link to the Google Street View of the Beacon Hill neighborhood in the Chamberland video:

https://www.google.com/maps/@56.688882,-111.35828 67,3a,75y,105.39h,88.76t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1su43Fx D5HRYoxlW2zYKz52Q!2e0!7i13312!8i6656



Zoom out on the map and you'll see again the folly of building a large neighborhood while leaving just a single exit.
Thank You both for the detailed analysis on the Canadian wildfire and conditions that contributed to this issue. Worth re-posting my comment on the old blog a few minutes ago just before this one came up:

Based upon the most recent heat stats for the globe (the Jan-Feb-March heat records etc), I am enjoying these few cool days for the SE US due to the recent front. I suspect that we may see some brutal heat this summer in many parts of the world and certainly in the equatorial regions and the mid-latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Not looking forward to Summers in the near future either.............................Seems like shorter Winters and longer Summers might be trend we are heading into over the next several decades for the NH.


Thankfully and with Love from friends who travel,I've been blessed to have met or have come to visit here in NOLA, over 25 people from wunderground in 10 years now.

I even had the op to give away a Bride on Her wedding day.

Today marks 10 years since my First "Patrap" wunderblog was published.

So heres to 10 more to come!

A Heartfelt thanks to all my wunderfriend's globally.



carry over from previous blog

Quoting 190. JrWeathermanFL:




here is an animation too go with that

Does anyone know if the Fort McMurray fire was started by either possible human cause (cigarette, campfire, etc) or natural cause (lightening)............... ?
thanks for lunch time update gentlemen
Quoting 7. weathermanwannabe:

Does anyone know if the Fort McMurray fire was started by either possible human cause (cigarette, campfire, etc) or natural cause (lightening)............... ?
they still investigating that
Quoting 7. weathermanwannabe:

Does anyone know if the Fort McMurray fire was started by either possible human cause (cigarette, campfire, etc) or natural cause (lightening)............... ?
Not sure yet, but:

Lack of lightning suggests a human caused Fort McMurray fire: professor

"Humans are the leading cause of wildfires in Canada, says a forest fire researcher who believes the latest blaze that has ripped through parts of Fort McMurray, Alta., is no exception.

Mike Flanagan, a professor of wildland fires at the University of Alberta, says the fire's proximity to the city, as well as data that shows there were no lightning strikes in the area, lead him to believe the cause of the fire was likely human.

"And in spring it's heavily loaded on the side of people-caused fires," Flanagan said."

"An average of 1,200 wildfires are reported in Alberta each year, and half of those fires are caused by humans, according to the National Fire Database. Lightning is the second-leading cause with 47 per cent."

Source: CTV News
Quoting 7. weathermanwannabe:

Does anyone know if the Fort McMurray fire was started by either possible human cause (cigarette, campfire, etc) or natural cause (lightening)............... ?

Here is the possible answer I just found on the net:

http://www.thespec.com/news-story/6529260-lack-of -lightning-suggests-a-human-caused-fort-mcmurray-f ire-professor/


Mike Flanagan, a professor of wildland fires at the University of Alberta, says the fire's proximity to the city, as well as data that shows there were no lightning strikes in the area, lead him to believe the cause of the fire was likely human.

"And in spring it's heavily loaded on the side of people-caused fires," Flanagan said.

India too

It's a fire that was probably started by a human. How does climate change figure into that?
#5 Patrap:
As one of those folks that have been welcomed in New Orleans by you and your family I say:
Happy 10th Anniversary!
Looking forward to the next decade!
Ken
Quoting 14. Sandy82579:

It's a fire that was probably started by a human. How does climate change figure into that?


Most like was started by a human and we're clearly seeing the effects of a Super El Nino and what it can do.
Looking to make it up to your way this Summer Ken.

Keep the Bourbon stocked up my friend.
I used to fish regularly at a large local Wildlife Refuge South of Tallahassee (St. Marks Refuge) and the electronic gate to the park opens at 6:00 am. About eight years, it rained/thundered most of the day on Saturday, and with a clearing forecast overnight and smooth waters on Sun am, I was the only one at the gate at Sunrise. Driving through the park on the way to the coast, I noticed a glow in the distance in one of the tree lines; and slowed down and stopped as I got close. Sure enough, about 100 feet up on one of the tall pines, a section at the top of the tree trunk was glowing and charred like a piece of coal on grill; lightening strike lit up the tree. Is was very cool to be the first person that day to witness it.............The Park Ranger was already aware at the gate as I was leaving later in the day.
Quoting 14. Sandy82579:

It's a fire that was probably started by a human. How does climate change figure into that?


Abnormally snow free conditions, and abnormally hot temperatures for the time of year. But, you probably knew that.
More video B-roll of the McMurray Fire evacuation.






Quoting 14. Sandy82579:

It's a fire that was probably started by a human. How does climate change figure into that?
lower than normal snowfall/snow cover the warmer than normal temps dry values at 7 to 9 percent stiff wind all ya needed was someone burning a little garbage on their land causing embers to fall to the ground and the rest well we know how it turned out
A current satellite estimate of the fire perimeter, and hot spots detected from the past 24 hours. The airport mentioned above is located where "Fort McMurray" appears in brown font. Courtesy of GeoGratis.



Quoting 14. Sandy82579:

It's a fire that was probably started by a human. How does climate change figure into that?


pretty well explained in the blog post - IMHO
On a related note for the US; here is the current fire season outlook for 2016:

http://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/m onthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf

Heavy fine fuel loadings are expected across the
Southwest and Great Basin, and lower elevation areas of
southern and central California. This will likely increase fire
activity in these areas throughout fire season especially
when associated with dry and windy periods. Fire activity
will begin in May and June across the Southwest and
transition northward as usual throughout the June and July.

Here is a shot from NASA of the fire in Ft. McMurray.

In Australia we have been experiencing longer fire seasons, more frequent and intense blazes. Each summer we watch in horror as a different part of the country goes up in flames. So our sympathies with the people of Fort McMurray. Most of us know that climate change has influenced the seasonality, frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Wildfires - we call them bushfires here - are complex processes with multiple contributing causes revolving around ignition, fuel, weather, and human activity. Weather, fuel and too a lesser extent ignition, are all influenced by climate trends of rising temperatures, increase in the number of hot days, changes in precipitation, electrical storms (often a natural source of ignition), drought, soil moisture and humidity.

Even the fact that CO2 aids in plant growth can be a factor, as this can increase fuel load when subject to drier conditions.

Like any extreme weather event, fire weather has multiple influences. As Kevin Trenbeth points out "All extreme weather events are now being influenced by climate change because they are occurring in a climate system that is hotter and moister than it was 50 years ago (Trenberth 2012)."

So we need to invest in better fire fighting resources and planning. Here in Australia we rely upon to a large extent volunteer Country Fire Authority brigades, but maybe we will need to professionalise some of these to cope with the extended fire weather conditions.

Perhaps we should also be considering a permanent professional force capable of being deployed over summer months in each hemisphere. Just an idea. We send Aussie firefighters to the US and Canada to fight the fires of your summer. Canadian and US fire fighters visit Australia to help fight and contain bushfires in the southern summer. Share skills and abilities.
Unfortunately, it seems as if the airport is now "under seige". And a preliminary estimate is provided regarding damages. Extremely unfortunate.

As of 10 mins ago:

Alberta Premier Rachel Notley updates Fort McMurray wildfire

The Fort McMurray wildfire raged through areas south of the city overnight, causing significant damage near the airport and forcing more evacuations further south down Highway 63.

Near the airport, the Nova Hotel, an ATCO Gas building, a maintenance shop, and portions of the airport fire hall were destroyed by the flames, Transport Canada confirmed Thursday morning.

The fire continues to burn on the north side of the airport property and is moving east, and smoke is now covering the airfield. Fuel tanks have been watered down as a precaution should fire reach the area.

Though the main terminal remains fully operational, no flights are going in or out.

Passengers who had been stranded in the main terminal have been evacuated by bus. A security sweep was conducted and staff are in contact with firefighters and have been told it is safe for them to remain in place.

A plan is in place should those people need to vacate the terminal.

About 250 firefighters, aided by 12 helicopters and 17 air tankers, have been fighting fires on several fronts in and around the city.

Homes in the north part of the Abasand neighbourhood, just west of downtown, are now on fire, according to municipal officials. Fire crews are reporting significant damage in the Prospect Drive area in the northeast end of the Timberlea neighbourhood, but crews stopped the fire from crossing Confederation Way into Eagle Ridge.

Serious damage has been reported around the Old Airport Road.

The raging fire has already destroyed more than 1,600 homes and buildings, and on Wednesday forced the city's emergency response team to move its headquarters to a new location in Anzac, 30 kilometres to the south.
Within hours, however, with the fire bearing down, Anzac was evacuated, and many evacuees forced from their Fort McMurray homes earlier in the week were on the move again.

Three communities, including an evacuation centre, were ordered cleared late Wednesday as changing weather patterns pushed the wildfire their way.

In the darkness, RCMP went door to door in Anzac, Gregoire Lake Estates and Fort McMurray First Nation after a mandatory evacuation order was issued.

Anxious and exhausted people boarded buses for the long trip down Highway 63.

By morning, 11 buses had arrived at an evacuation centre in Edmonton, where thousands are now registered.

The municipality reported the regional emergency operations centre is moving back north to Fire Hall 5, near the airport, and will provide more information on the fire later this morning.

BMO said the fire could become the largest "insurance event" in Canadian history, estimated at up to $9 billion.
30F degrees above normal? PERHAPS that is contributing and the fact that it rained in calgary the last few months as much as it snowed....as an example

Quoting 23. daddyjames:



pretty well explained in the blog post - IMHO
Quoting 29. 19N81W:

30F degrees above normal? PERHAPS that is contributing and the fact that it rained in calgary the last few months as much as it snowed....as an example




I guess they did not see - I don't know whom to attribute it to? Jeff (Masters) or (not-so-silent) Bob (Hensen) - (still sticking to my recommendation for renaming the blog!):

It’s not rocket science to connect the dots between the preconditions for the Fort McMurray fire and large-scale, long-term trends
I am amazed sometimes how many do not understand how fast and dramatically Humans have altered the very atmosphere by Fossil Fuel burning increasing CO2 levels.

You cannot affect the natural system with such a rapid change and not expect drastic changes in the overall global Patterns we are witnessing.

Welcome to the Anthropocene.



To quote a ol rock tune

..you ain't seen nothing yet'


Good Luck.
To quote a ol rock tune

..you ain't seen nothing yet'


Good Luck.
This is pretty remarkable as any chance for La-Nina continues to meet a lot of resistance. Starting to remind me a lot of 2014. Looks as if another SOI crash is coming infact the SOI has been negative everyday since March.

(still sticking to my recommendation for renaming the blog!):


Although, I never did WUmail "Jeff and [not-so-silent] Bob: Tropical Weather and Climate Blog" to them - thus, it may not be officially in contention due to a sight "technicality" in the submission process.
I believe we will see the new Blog Title before June 1.

Quoting 35. Patrap:

I believe we will see the new Blog Title before June 1.




Yup one that reads Old Guys on WU rule the roost.
Quoting 33. StormTrackerScott:

This is pretty remarkable as any chance for La-Nina continues to meet a lot of resistance. Starting to remind me a lot of 2014. Looks as if another SOI crash is coming infact the SOI has been negative everyday since March.


so in your view we are still in an el nino setup and likely to stay?

Quoting 33. StormTrackerScott:

This is pretty remarkable as any chance for La-Nina continues to meet a lot of resistance. Starting to remind me a lot of 2014. Looks as if another SOI crash is coming infact the SOI has been negative everyday since March.


Anthony Sagliani ‏@anthonywx May 3
Atmospheric Nino background state all but gone based on CFS progs for late May/early June. So long, Godzilla.
Quoting 38. 19N81W:

so in your view we are still in an el nino setup and likely to stay?




No not at all I think we go to La Nina eventually but to be honest I didn't expect the SOI to continue being so negative. The cool water is the subsurface its just the SOI needs to flip for us to get to La-Nina if not then we go to neutral and that's it.
Quoting 14. Sandy82579:

It's a fire that was probably started by a human. How does climate change figure into that?


Hotter temperatures and drier fuels increase fire growth and spread.
Quoting 39. Gearsts:

Anthony Sagliani ‏@anthonywx May 3
Atmospheric Nino background state all but gone based on CFS progs for late May/early June. So long, Godzilla.


Need to watch the SOI though very strange to see values so low into May when models have La-Nina. I think we get there at some point but that needs to be watched.
CANADA - NEW RECORD COSTLIEST NATURAL DISASTER?: The Bank of Montreal projects that the Fort McMurray fire could cost insurers between 2.7 billion $ and 9 billion $, which would break the record of 1.9 billion $ in today's $ for the 1998 Quebec ice storm, which is followed by the 1.8 billion $ for the Alberta flood of 2013, according to the article at the link.

Link
Quoting 36. StormTrackerScott:



Yup one that reads Old Guys on WU rule the roost.


You are right there. Hope all is going well on the home front. I've been there, in time all will be fine.
Quoting 44. luvtogolf:



You are right there. Hope all is going well on the home front. I've been there, in time all will be fine.


LOL! Isn't that true. 37 does feel old when you getting up @ 6am for work or getting up @ 5am to go to the gym.
Quoting 44. luvtogolf:



You are right there. Hope all is going well on the home front. I've been there, in time all will be fine.


On the home front things are better. To be honest man it was rough for many weeks that is why I haven't been on. Just now starting to get my barrings. Thanks for this I really appreciate it as man you have no idea as I feel like I've went thru hell and back the last month and a half.
The cloud is definitely a pyrocumulonimbus since its top is above the cirrocumulus layer. What I do not understand is why it does not generate precipitations (sort of black rain) that should control the fire.
The April global CO2 figure is just in, and it's a doozie, at 407.42 ppm. This beats the 2015 April figure (403.26 ppm) by a whopping 4.16 ppm, which is probably a record by some margin for an increase for any month over the same month of the previous year. Usually, it's a little over 2 ppm.

The March figure was 404.83 ppm, an increase of 3.31 ppm over the previous March (401.52 ppm), so this is quite a surge. Don't know for sure where it's coming from, but my money would be on lower net uptake by warmer oceans. The current temperature anomaly for the tropical and sub tropical oceans is very high, and warm water outgasses CO2. No doubt, wildfires are also contributing.

NOAA CO2 page
Quoting 45. StormTrackerScott:



LOL! Isn't that true. 37 does feel old when you getting up @ 6am for work or getting up @ 5am to go to the gym.


How much did Orlando get yesterday? I got 4" and most of the Bay Area saw between 2-7". For once this one way overachieved. NWS and the TV mets all forecasted up to 1".
Quoting 48. yonzabam:

The April global CO2 figure is just in, and it's a doozie, at 407.42 ppm. This beats the 2015 April figure (403.26 ppm) by a whopping 4.16 ppm, which is probably a record by some margin for an increase for any month over the same month of the previous year. Usually, it's a little over 2 ppm.

The March figure was 404.83 ppm, an increase of 3.31 ppm over the previous March (401.52 ppm), so this is quite a surge. Don't know for sure where it's coming from, but my money would be on lower net uptake by warmer oceans. The current temperature anomaly for the tropical and sub tropical oceans is very high, and warm water outgasses CO2. No doubt, wildfires are also contributing.

NOAA CO2 page


This super El Nino has played a role in the spike.
Very sad what's happening in Canada.Someone might as well may have dropped a bomb because I'am sure that's what it will look like once the flames die down and the smoke clears .
Quoting 50. luvtogolf:



This super El Nino has played a role in the spike.

There are some other factors involved too, I dare say !
We have passed the tipping points. How much CO2 is that fire pumping out? How much more CO2 from thawing and drying carbon-rich soils? How much change in albedo we the melting of the snowpacks?
Quoting 49. luvtogolf:



How much did Orlando get yesterday? I got 4" and most of the Bay Area saw between 2-7". For once this one way overachieved. NWS and the TV mets all forecasted up to 1".


Only around 1". However we picked up 1.29" on Tuesday and then got lucky last Friday from a stationary storm and picked up 4.32".
Quoting 54. StormTrackerScott:



Only around 1". However we picked up 1.29" on Tuesday and then got lucky last Friday from a stationary storm and picked up 4.32".


Week or so ago, just near Houston picked up 17" in a few hours, I've picked up 11" for the month of April. Now that's rain.
Quoting 49. luvtogolf:



How much did Orlando get yesterday? I got 4" and most of the Bay Area saw between 2-7". For once this one way overachieved. NWS and the TV mets all forecasted up to 1".


Over in Orlando they are over 16" for the year with a 5" surplus. I suspect I am somewhere near that total. We really got lucky with 2 days of seabreeze storms last week which popped up along I-4 from SW Seminole down into Orlando. Rain last Friday was about the heaviest I've seen in a long time.
Mat-Su valley up here has a fire... It's growing and proving to be difficult to put out...

Link

http://www.adn.com/article/20160505/sunrise-fire- still-30-acres-after-overnight-battle
Quoting 55. RitaEvac:



Week or so ago, just near Houston picked up 17" in a few hours, I've picked up 11" for the month of April. Now that's rain.


Damm!
Strathcona County firefighters saving houses in Fort McMurray
Strathcona County firefighters get first break in 30 hours after leaving Edmonton for Fort McMurray

Link

I hope none of them are injured fighting this thing.....
so If the oil sands shuts down for a few weeks or part of it is destroyed I am guessing the price of oil to climb?
thats one way to do it!
I wonder if the landscape being altered by the strip clearing/mining etc. has contributed to this fire getting so large?
not sure whats on fire versus the sands etc.
Quoting 59. Sfloridacat5:

Strathcona County firefighters saving houses in Fort McMurray
Strathcona County firefighters get first break in 30 hours after leaving Edmonton for Fort McMurray

Link


Quoting 34. daddyjames:

(still sticking to my recommendation for renaming the blog!):


Although, I never did WUmail "Jeff and [not-so-silent] Bob: Tropical Weather and Climate Blog" to them - thus, it may not be officially in contention due to a sight "technicality" in the submission process.


Not to worry: all of the names that were either posted as blog comments or emailed to me or Jeff made it into the hopper. Hang tight...we hope to be able to make the announcement soon!
Hi nrtiwlnvragn.

Has the upgrade to GFS occured already or is coming in the next few days?
Quoting 61. BobHenson:



Not to worry: all of the names that were either posted as blog comments or emailed to me or Jeff made it into the hopper. Hang tight...we hope to be able to make the announcement soon!


LOL - thanks. I imagine I must have contributed a good number, as I was on a roll that particular day.
Let the odds be ever in my favor (to steal yet another movie reference)!
Hello All,

US National Weather Service Wilmington NC
52 mins

Multiple reports of damage to trees are coming in from the Middle Sound Loop area just east of Wilmington. We're sending a storm survey team out to determine if a brief tornado touchdown may have occurred just before 2:30 pm.







Mind you, I did not necessarily say "serious" contention . . .
Quoting 62. Tropicsweatherpr:

Hi nrtiwlnvragn.

Has the upgrade to GFS occured already or is coming in the next few days?


Current plan is May 11.
Quoting 63. daddyjames:



LOL - thanks. I imagine I must have contributed a good number, as I was on a roll that particular day.
Let the odds be ever in my favor (to steal yet another movie reference)!


I know "Tropical Weather and Climate Blog" was mentioned by many blog members. So I know that possible name definitely made it in the hopper.
Impressive view of big fire Fort McMurray,Alberta from new NASA satellite.

Quoting 45. StormTrackerScott:



LOL! Isn't that true. 37 does feel old when you getting up @ 6am for work or getting up @ 5am to go to the gym.


At 58 I have no more trouble getting up at 6AM than I did at 24. It just isn't any harder. Exercise, injury healing, and flexibility are all harder but not actually getting alert to do nonphysical thinking work or physical labor that doesn't involve arthritic or injured joints and muscles.

For me the bother is knowing that when I get up the joints and feet are gonna hurt for the first few minutes before they loosen up but that's separate from waking up alert. Plantar fascitis and arthritis are bummers!

And I'm always the one that walks the dogs at 6:30AM

Quoting 64. ncstorm:

Hello All,

US National Weather Service Wilmington NC
52 mins �

Multiple reports of damage to trees are coming in from the Middle Sound Loop area just east of Wilmington. We're sending a storm survey team out to determine if a brief tornado touchdown may have occurred just before 2:30 pm.










I always worry about this kind of stuff with cold core lows. Hail esp.
Quoting 63. daddyjames:



LOL - thanks. I imagine I must have contributed a good number, as I was on a roll that particular day.
Let the odds be ever in my favor (to steal yet another movie reference)!


I haven't caught you posting in a while. Nice to have "caught" you... Hope all is well in your neck of the woods.
Disregard this post as something happened to the blog that none posts showed up for a period of time and I made a second post about the fire and satellite view at post 69.
Blog is broke again I see.....
Quoting 73. Dakster:



I haven't caught you posting in a while. Nice to have "caught" you... Hope all is well in your neck of the woods.


Been keeping tab on things mostly in the shadows. . . see that you are acclimating well to the Alaskan lifestyle. Have the neighbors accused you of bringing the heat up with you from FL? I keep looking for you on one of those Alaskan shows (Discovery Channel). Haven't seen ya yet on camera :)
Levi Cowan
‏@TropicalTidbits
CFS & ECMWF have disagreed on the hurricane season before. Interesting, but careful in your choice - I have yet to see the CFS win that one
Quoting 67. Sfloridacat5:



I know "Tropical Weather and Climate Blog" was mentioned by many blog members. So I know that possible name definitely made it in the hopper.


its the "Jeff and (not-so-silent) Bob I'm rooting for!
I don't know that they ever mentioned prizes in connection with the name contest; whoever gets it, or a combination of people based on similar submissions, should at least get a WU mug or T-Shirt. If you really wanted to get fancy, you could throw in a TWC rain coat or something (hat?)....................Just my personal opinion............................ :)
GFS bias?
Hard to read this now.

50/50 raffle and silent auction proceeds at tonight's Blues/Stars game going to Ft McMurray. LGB! A cool N-NW wind still blowing in S C IL, though we did just get above forecast high of 62. Dew pts started in upper 30s lower 40s this a.m., now at 45, pressure hanging around 30", winds still around 6-10 w/ low - mid 20s gusts. StL now showing a very light SW wind, so warmup for weekend probably about to start.

Quoting 58. StormTrackerScott:



Damm!
Ha Ha Ha !!!!
Quoting 60. 19N81W:

I hope none of them are injured fighting this thing.....
so If the oil sands shuts down for a few weeks or part of it is destroyed I am guessing the price of oil to climb?
thats one way to do it!
I wonder if the landscape being altered by the strip clearing/mining etc. has contributed to this fire getting so large?
not sure whats on fire versus the sands etc.

Not really as their is a glutton of oil on the world markets. This fire is not out of the ordinary, as these fires have been a part of the natural cycle up their for a very long time, it's just know there are a lot more people living and working in these area's.
watching to see if something spins up in the nw carib

low this morning was 59.2 high was 67.0, currently 66.2, normal is 79/54, forecast was 67.0 (KRAL) Rain forecast .08 and .16 tomorrow, nothing yet
Besides the direct production of CO2, such a vast fire at this latitude will probably put a significant layer of heat-absorbing soot on the Greenland ice sheet, and probably the polar ice cap as well, just as the summer melt season is getting underway.
Quoting 83. luvtogolf:



Flagged.


Flagged.

And I'll get plusses for it, too.
Upper level devil with several vort swirls abeam the California coast. Lots of convection popping north of the Bay, mostly cloudy south.




NASA Earth Observatory image by Joshua Stevens

Link
Quoting 76. DeepSeaRising:

Wildfire Trump which started out as a thousand acre fire a year ago has grown into a million acre inferno and consumed the Republican party. Some members fled while others walked directly into the flames as if they had given up all hope. With conditions not seen in fifty years, nothing done to stop the fire has worked and it continues to grow; threatening millions in it's path. Citizens looked on in horror as many of their fellow Americans rooted for the fire soon to destroy their way of life. As of today last ditch efforts are being thrown at the fire as Republicans flee for their political existence.


You know, it is fascinating that the Republican Party "establishment" did not see this coming. After subsuming the Tea Party movement back in 2009, a quite angry, vocal group actively focused upon displacing those in power, aka "The Establishment", both in and outside of the Republican Party.
Did the the Republican Party "Establishment" not think they would be stung? After all, it is in the nature of the beast.

You cannot say that the Republican "Establishment" wasn't warned and early on. Both inside and outside of the party.

Cruz tried and failed, most likely he thought he could capture both the religious vote and the Tea Party vote, but apparently he did not know Tea Party camp all that well.
Trump is not a Tea Partier per se, but definitely appeals to that "wing" of the Republican Party - as well as to other less "visible groups".
He might eventually feel the sting, but will just shrug it off and continue swimming.

You can't say that the Republican Party should not have been able to see this coming. The mahuts gave good warning. The Republican "Establishment" should have heeded it and stood aside.


When the Rains Disappear: Drought Grips Pacific Islands

From the vantage point of a boat bobbing on the deep blue waters of Majuro Lagoon, the encircling shores of the Pacific coral atoll are normally verdant with tropical vegetation. But on a recent sailing excursion with friends, Angela Saunders was struck by how brown and withered the island looked.

“The vibrant color of all the trees was gone,” Saunders, a Majuro-based program manager with the International Organization for Migration, wrote in an email. “It was like someone put dampers on the world.”
It is a scene that is playing out across the hundreds of low-lying islands and atolls scattered across a vast swath of the western Pacific Ocean broadly known as Micronesia. One of the strongest El Niños on record has curtailed the rains that are the lifeblood of most of the region’s communities and ushered in an extreme drought that has left inhabitants in a precarious situation.

Wells have become brackish or run dry; the rain barrels that perch on the corners of houses have little or no rainwater left in them. Water rationing is limited to a couple hours a day in some of the worst-hit communities, while expensive reverse-osmosis machines have been shipped out to the most far-flung atolls to make the seawater drinkable. Staple foods like breadfruit and bananas have shriveled on the trees, inedible.


Link
Quoting 93. daddyjames:



You know, it is fascinating that the Republican Party "establishment" did not see this coming. After subsuming the Tea Party movement back in 2009, a quite angry, vocal group actively focused upon displacing those in power, aka "The Establishment", both in and outside of the Republican Party.
Did the the Republican Party "Establishment" not think they would be stung?After all, it is in the nature of the beast.

You cannot say that the Republican "Establishment" wasn't warned and early on. Both inside and outside of the party.

Cruz tried and failed, most likely he thought he could capture both the religious vote and the Tea Party vote, but apparently he did not know Tea Party camp all that well.
Trump is not a Tea Partier per se, but definitely appeals to that "wing" of the Republican Party - as well as to other less "visible groups".
He might eventually feel the sting, but will just shrug it off and continue swimming.

You can't say that the Republican Party should not have been able to see this coming. The mahuts gave good warning. The Republican "Establishment" should have heeded it and have stood aside.




As far as the anti-Establishment sentiment, it's not just the Republican party. The Democratic Party will face its time soon too. Clinton may get the nomination this year because the older generations have overpowered the millennial vote in most states, but I doubt that will be the case in 2020 or 2024. We are sick of do-nothing politicians who care more about money and power than they do the well being of the USA citizens.

Unfortunately, the longer we delay the nomination of progressives who care about our environment, the more severe our consequences will grow.
Quoting 90. aquak9:



Flagged.

And I'll get plusses for it, too.
As StormTrackerScott would say:
Quoting 58. StormTrackerScott:



Damm!
Perhaps a little precip the next few days. Bring it on!



A Pacific low pressure system will move into Southern California today. It will bring strong winds to parts of the mountains and deserts this afternoon and tonight. Showers will develop across the region today and continue through Sunday. There is also a slight chance of thunderstorms this evening through Friday.
Quoting 80. weathermanwannabe:

I don't know that they ever mentioned prizes in connection with the name contest; whoever gets it, or a combination of people based on similar submissions, should at least get a WU mug or T-Shirt. If you really wanted to get fancy, you could throw in a TWC rain coat or something (hat?)....................Just my personal opinion............................ :)


They should get a winter storm named after them.
With 85 wildfires in British Columbia, Alberta must wait: Forest Minister

Link
Aprils overall temp anomaly map is in just as suspect warming continues

compare sst map 2015/16 may 5




2005 reference only

Late good night hello with some environmental news:

Canada's First Nations take pipeline fight to Supreme Court
To the indigenous Chippewas, Ontario's Thames River is central to life and is to be treated with spiritual reverence. Which is why they are taking their right to protect it all the way to Canada's Supreme Court.
DW English, May 4, 2016

UN nominates new environment and climate chiefs
Both the UN Environment Programme and the UN Climate Change Convention are getting new leaders. UNEP will be led by a former environment minister of Norway and UNFCCC by Mexico's current ambassador to Germany.
DW English, May 4, 2016

Africa's Great Green Wall could halt youth migration, extremism - experts
Source: Thomson Reuters Foundation - Thu, 5 May 2016 12:34 GMT
DAKAR, May 5 (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - A project to plant a wall of trees stretching across Africa aims not only to halt desertification, but also to improve food security, create jobs, and offer young people an alternative to migration and extremism, environmental experts said on Thursday.
The planned Great Green Wall would see a 7,000 km (4,400 mile) strip of vegetation reaching from Senegal in West Africa to Djibouti in East Africa, designed to trap the sands of the Sahara, halt the advance of the desert and restore 50 million hectares of land. ...


Meanwhile best weather in Germany. Here a shot I took at the banks of Rhine in Mainz today (the "Ebony and Ivory" theme of this pic was symptomatic btw. I guess half of the folks enjoying today's splendid atmosphere at this promenade was not of German origin)

With 85 wildfires in British Columbia, Alberta must wait: Forest Minister

Link
Quoting 88. PedleyCA:


low this morning was 59.2 high was 67.0, currently 66.2, normal is 79/54, forecast was 67.0 (KRAL) Rain forecast .08 and .16 tomorrow, nothing yet



Sup Ped? Hope them raindrops shown come to fruition.
T-26 days
2016 Atlantic Hurricane seasons start

Quoting 107. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

T-26 days
2016 Atlantic Hurricane seasons start


Quoting 95. TropicalAnalystwx13:


As far as the anti-Establishment sentiment, it's not just the Republican party. The Democratic Party will face its time soon too. Clinton may get the nomination this year because the older generations have overpowered the millennial vote in most states, but I doubt that will be the case in 2020 or 2024. We are sick of do-nothing politicians who care more about money and power than they do the well being of the USA citizens.

Unfortunately, the longer we delay the nomination of progressives who care about our environment, the more severe our consequences will grow.


I agree that the Democratic party will transition as well, as the old guard fades and is replaced by a younger group.
I don't foresee it occurring in such a spectacular manner as witnessed in the Republican Party this year. As interesting, off-putting, and, at times, entertaining it certainly is how the Republican Party has operated the past 40+ years (since Nixon resigned). What happens to the GOP remains to be determined. It may be that Trump is one last vestige of the "rage against the GOP machine" that has to be exorcised before cooler heads prevail. It may be that there is an acrimonious divorce among the different factions . . .

To counter your suggestion that things cannot improve unless progressives are elected . . . . progress has been made in a number of areas as far as shifting from an "oil-based" economy. Although constrained in part by availability of natural resources a majority of the top ten states generating energy from wind are considered deeply "red" states (see below). Of the top ten states utilizing solar power, 3 to 4 of those could be considered "red" states as well.

Political grandstanding aside . . . . it can, and is, being done. Yes, there definitely would be more support from one party over another.

looking at the political comments I'am ready to track a storm and all the rush and excitement that comes from tracking it from birth until death.

Quoting 106. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Sup Ped? Hope them raindrops shown come to fruition.
Hope we both get some, the WU forecast is now .09/.35 (KRAL), so I hope than comes close.
Quoting 113. washingtonian115:

looking at the political comments I'am ready to track a storm and all the rush and excitement that comes from tracking it from birth until death.


LOL - point taken . . . .


North Fork Grand Plateau Glacier comparison in 2013 and 2015 Landsat images. Illustrating the rapid retreat and lake expansion in just two years. Pink arrow is 1984 terminus, red arrow is the 2013 terminus and yellow arrow 2015 terminus. The orange dots are the 2013 terminus.

Link
Quoting 77. daddyjames:



Been keeping tab on things mostly in the shadows. . . see that you are acclimating well to the Alaskan lifestyle. Have the neighbors accused you of bringing the heat up with you from FL? I keep looking for you on one of those Alaskan shows (Discovery Channel). Haven't seen ya yet on camera :)


I'm camera shy... But yeah, acclimating well. Have no desire to leave.
Quoting 121. Dakster:



I'm camera shy... But yeah, acclimating well. Have no desire to leave.


I could fly in and do a blog entry, maybe spend a week. But I will bring boiled crawfish and some Trout fillets too.
North Carolina mountains today. Still snowing steady.

In some areas, “we now have year-round fire seasons,” Matt Jolly, a research ecologist for the United States Forest Service, recently told the Times.

“You can say it couldn’t get worse,” Jolly added, but based on its own projections, the forest service expects that it will get worse. According to a Forest Service report published last April, “Climate change has led to fire seasons that are now on average 78 days longer than in 1970.” Over the last three decades, the area destroyed each year by forest fires has doubled, and the service’s scientists project that it’s likely to “double again by midcentury.” A group of scientists who analyzed lake cores from Alaska to obtain a record of forest fires over the last ten thousand years found that in recent decades, blazes were both unusually frequent and unusually severe. “This extreme combination suggests a transition to a unique regime of unprecedented fire activity,” they concluded.


Link
Quoting 123. Walshy:

North Carolina mountains today. Still snowing steady.



The Omega Block
Quoting 108. Gearsts:


That's a better look for you guys than that dark brown...
Quoting 123. Walshy:

North Carolina mountains today. Still snowing steady.


Totally whack, man.... used to thoughts of 80s up there by now..
128. IDTH
It's really hard to get a true grasp on how the Hurricane Season could pan out. The way it's going now, La Nina seems inevitable, still can't rule anything out though.

By the way, I was at a track meet today and I was glancing at my weather radar quite a bit and I saw a storm to the north of us that had an obvious hail core with no warning and a storm to my west that prompted us to take shelter inside the school because of a reported Tornado touchdown and yet again, there was no warning on the storm.

Don't take this the wrong way because I'm sure they do their job well but it felt like they were on vacation because these were obvious things that should've been warned beforehand. I'm happy no one I knew got hurt but this is something that's inexcusable in my honest opinion. You can tell me they do their job extremely well and they do but this was a mistake that could've easily been avoided.


The Bahamas is clear, but looks like our southern neighbors may get lucky ...
David Bowman, a fire ecologist from the School of Biological Science at the University of Tasmania, and Lori Daniels, from the Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences at the University of British Columbia in Canada raise some interesting issues regarding management of fires with the increase in their seasonality, frequency and intensity with climate change. It is a complex issue which we will need to continue to come to terms with as temperatures rise with climate change. I quote the article from the Hobart Mercury in Full as it is such an important topical subject : Talking Point: Fighting fires fans the flames

FIRE season has started in Canada, following a 21st century trend of earlier, longer and more economically and ecologically destructive bushfires.

The causes, consequences and response to fire in western Canada have similarities to Australia, yet substantial differences. Understanding these differences is important because they highlight opportunities and barriers to achieving sustainable coexistence of developed societies with increasingly flammable landscapes.

Fire is integral to the ecology of western Canadian forests, including coastal temperate rainforests that experience fires once every several millennia.

The role of fire in shaping the western Canadian landscape is understood by Canadian forest managers and fire ecologists. However, among most Canadians there is limited appreciation that wildfire is part of the fabric of their land. Public aversion to landscape fire has been reinforced by a successful policy of suppressing nearly all wildfires in recent decades.

Such an effective fire suppression capacity relies on sophisticated aerial fire fighting techniques, including bombers that drop fire retardants, and crews that can be rapidly deployed by helicopters.

Such fire suppression is extremely expensive. For example in British Columbia suppression budget blowouts occur yearly, with an average cost of $CA159 million. Yet there is little political appetite to economise on a government program seen as like any other emergency service.

The fire suppression policy has been so successful most Canadians have an extremely low tolerance of any landscape fire, including smoke from management burns. As a consequence, and unlike Australia, the use of prescribed burning to reduce fuel loads in forests is very rarely used. Indeed, conservation biologists are now reintroducing fire into some pine savanna and grassland ecosystems to restore suitable habitat for a suite of endangered wildlife species.

Urban sprawl into wildlands has created an enormously challenging fire management problem widely known as the wildland-urban interface or WUI. On the WUI, planned burning is not a practical option given public opposition to landscape fire. For this reason the Canadian Government has developed a fire program to create defensible space around individual homes.

In British Columbia, the Strategic Wildfire Prevention Initiative promotes the use of mechanical thinning to reduce tree density and lower the risk of uncontrolled crown fires.

This program has limited funding relative to the magnitude of the interface.

Despite a budget of $CA78 million since 2004, only 10 per cent of the 685,000,000ha of WUI forests with very high fuel loads and vulnerable to crown fires have been treated.

The cost of implementing thinning is not the only impediment to the program’s success. Many communities are blissfully unaware of the existential risk they face from wildfire, erroneously believing fire is an improbable once-in-a-lifetime event and so see no reason to reduce fire hazard on their WUI. Another barrier is the difficulty of disposing of the thinned biomass.

Despite the existence of a booming wood pellet industry, there is no market for “bush grind”, as the thinning from fuel management and debris from logging is called in British Columbia.

Two indirect effects of climate change stimulated this industry: a glut of timber following irruption of beetles that kill forests, and a demand for wood pellets from the European Union.

Warmer winters have resulted in outbreaks of pine beetles that kill some forest types, resulting in the need to rapidly salvage logs from vast areas of forest which in turn has created a surge in wood waste from milling that is suitable for pellets.

The bushfire problem in both Canada and Australia is becoming more complex due to climate change that is resulting in substantially more destructive fire seasons.

The European Union greenhouse gas policy classes wood pellets as a renewable energy source, creating a huge market for the importation of Canadian pellets.

The disconnect between wood pellet production and fire management is a major barrier to achieving an effective and sustainable fire management that could significantly simultaneously reduce smoke and greenhouse gas pollution and fire hazard.

Given the aversion to planned burning and the ineffective use of forest thinning on the WUI and in wildlands alike, Canadian fire managers are experimenting with a variant of fire suppression known as “modified response”. Here the strategy is to let wildfires burn if they are assessed as of being of a low risk to life and property.

Such fires are seen as a key of restoring fire into naturally flammable landscapes and an effective mechanism to reduce fuel loads and hence risk of subsequent uncontrollable fires. In reality, this approach is only occasionally used because fire managers are reluctant to shoulder the responsibility of a bad or unlucky judgment call that sees an apparently benign fire escalate into a major fire disaster.

There is no question this reluctance is because in the back of their minds are the vast expanses of a highly vulnerable WUI.

The bushfire problem in both Canada and Australia is becoming more complex due to climate change that is resulting in substantially more destructive fire seasons.

Blending elements of the fire management approaches from both countries could substantially reduce the human and financial toll of bushfire disasters.

In the case of Australia this would involve increasing the use of mechanical vegetation management on the WUI, and resisting the temptation to become over reliant on aerial fire suppression.

In Canada, there needs to be a greater use of prescribed burning in wildlands. Yet to achieve this ideal demands creating a social licence for landscape fire and smoke.

Both countries need to find legal and financial instruments to enable wood waste be used for bioenergy rather than burnt on logged sites or in extreme wildfires in wildlands and the WUI. Solving the bushfire problem is as much a social and political problem as it is an environment one.
US National Weather Service Wilmington NC

Our storm survey team has confirmed a tornado did touchdown earlier today in northern New Hanover County, NC. Details are still being determined, but it appears winds as high as 90 mph (category EF1) occurred along an intermittent path from the north side of Landfall across Howe Creek and into the Middle Sound Loop area. Many large trees have been snapped or uprooted.

We'll have more details including an official path and width later tonight.




Alberta Premier Rachel Notley said in a Thursday news conference that the blaze grew from 25,000 acres to 210,000 acres in just 24 hours, making the fire larger than the city of Chicago.

Link

328 Square Miles
Reverse to last year.

Love it.
Storms over Northern Nevada:


Duststorm washing up the Stillwater Range, taken at the 80/95 rest stop



Eye of the Storm. Southbound on US95

Both photos taken today, by Christof Harper.

(The storms are just rocking our socks off, great fun and no trees to fall on my house!)
135. IDTH
Quoting 131. ncstorm:

US National Weather Service Wilmington NC

Our storm survey team has confirmed a tornado did touchdown earlier today in northern New Hanover County, NC. Details are still being determined, but it appears winds as high as 90 mph (category EF1) occurred along an intermittent path from the north side of Landfall across Howe Creek and into the Middle Sound Loop area. Many large trees have been snapped or uprooted.

We'll have more details including an official path and width later tonight.




I'm not pleased with them today. I'm glad they at least surveyed the area but the fact there was an obvious hail core storm to the north of Wilmington that had no warning makes me ticked off. The storm to the west was of course the one with the Tornado but again there was no warning. Warnings help people know if the situation is very serious, when there isn't a warning, they let their guard down. Absolutely no excuse for there being no warnings during that 2:00 to 3:00 time frame. Absolute fail on their part.
Quoting 135. IDTH:


I'm not pleased with them today. I'm glad they at least surveyed the area but the fact there was an obvious hail core storm to the north of Wilmington that had no warning makes me ticked off. The storm to the west was of course the one with the Tornado but again there was no warning. Warnings help people know if the situation is very serious, when there isn't a warning, they let their guard down. Absolutely no excuse for there being no warnings during that 2:00 to 3:00 time frame. Absolute fail on their part.

There were no severe hail reports in our area today. The NWS only warns only hail that is quarter size of greater (>1"). The maximum I saw was 0.5".

I wasn't paying enough attention to radar at the time to know if there should have been a tornado warning or not.
Quoting 113. washingtonian115:

looking at the political comments I'am ready to track a storm and all the rush and excitement that comes from tracking it from birth until death.
Yeah this blog needs a good out in the middle of nowhere storm. It has been pretty quiet in the northern hemisphere so far. Heck there still hasn't been a west pacific storm and its early may.
Another reason why I'm going to retire to the NC Mountains.
Quoting 138. Bucsboltsfan:

Another reason why I'm going to retire to the NC Mountains.


Pick high ground.
Quoting 97. RobertWC:

Omega block behind searing heat inflaming Fort McMurray wildfire

Capital Weather Gang



That suggests to me that reduced arctic sea ice could also be playing a role. It has been running record low in extent lately.
Quoting 140. RobertWC:



Pick high ground.


Snow in May, doesn't get any better than that.
Quoting 70. georgevandenberghe:

Plantar fascitis and arthritis are bummers!

Plantar...anything seems oddly appropriate in your case. :-)

I'm feeling your pain on the arthritis -and we're the same age. Small life cycle, no?
Quoting 135. IDTH:


I'm not pleased with them today. I'm glad they at least surveyed the area but the fact there was an obvious hail core storm to the north of Wilmington that had no warning makes me ticked off. The storm to the west was of course the one with the Tornado but again there was no warning. Warnings help people know if the situation is very serious, when there isn't a warning, they let their guard down. Absolutely no excuse for there being no warnings during that 2:00 to 3:00 time frame. Absolute fail on their part.


Its odd that when we are placed under a Slight risk as recently just this week that we barely get a thunderstorm..but today the SPC placed us under a thunderstorm outlook and we got a tornado..

Our NWS is known to be conservative in their forecasts but I agree they dropped the ball on this one with no warnings in place for a path length of 1.75 miles through residential neighborhoods..there was only one injury reported thank goodness and probably due to the storm occuring while most people were at work and not home..

Good Night all..
Feel the bern.
The Fort Mac fire is now the size of Calgary. Speaking of Calgary, no smoke here yet. Reports of smoke in Saskatoon.

Some info on the boreal forest in Canada:

http://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/ boreal-forest/
148. beell
Quoting 145. Kenfa03:

Feel the bern.


beell the fern

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1001 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

…RARE MONTH OF MAY SNOWFALL COULD CAUSE TRAVEL PROBLEMS IN THE
NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 3500 FEET FOR SNOW…WHICH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS…SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AT
ELEVATIONS AROUND 3500…RANGING UP TO 3 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE 4500
FEET…WITH ISOLATED 5 TO 6 INCH TOTALS ALONG THE VERY HIGHEST
PEAKS.
Quoting 142. Bucsboltsfan:



Snow in May, doesn't get any better than that.
Quoting 142. Bucsboltsfan:



Snow in May, doesn't get any better than that.


Don't settle in a flood zone.
These crazy blocking patterns that are becoming more common are sending so much heat to Canada and through the Arctic and Alaska that we're seeing ever faster changes that are nothing short of looking proof in the eye. The acceleration rate of AGW on the Arctic and it's consequences to come should be taught in every science class. It really is faster and faster now and the Arctic is melting and will continue to do so until it's ice free. That's a reality we need to really begin to understand and prepare for.
Quoting 49. luvtogolf:



How much did Orlando get yesterday? I got 4" and most of the Bay Area saw between 2-7". For once this one way overachieved. NWS and the TV mets all forecasted up to 1".

knock off a couple inches to Scotts report. His rain gauge is broken
Quoting 151. DeepSeaRising:

These crazy blocking patterns that are becoming more common are sending so much heat to Canada and through the Arctic and Alaska that we're seeing ever faster changes that are nothing short of looking proof in the eye. The acceleration rate of AGW on the Arctic and it's consequences to come should be taught in every science class. It really is faster and faster now and the Arctic is melting and will continue to do so until it's ice free. That's a reality we need to really begin to understand and prepare for.

With these dire predictions, what are your actions to prevent the upcoming catastrophies? I hope all the doom and gloomers are driving electric cars, have solar powering everything, do not fly on airplanes, grow their own food, do not eat meat, do not use air conditioning, do not use fossil fuels to heat their homes, have no children, and wear loin cloths for clothes
Quoting 146. slavicthunder:

The Fort Mac fire is now the size of Calgary. Speaking of Calgary, no smoke here yet. Reports of smoke in Saskatoon.

Some info on the boreal forest in Canada:

http://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/ boreal-forest/

wildfires have never happened in the history of the world
Fort McMurray is also known as Fort McMordor.

The open-pit bitumen mines north of town are the largest surface engineering project on the planet. A large part of Alberta's natural gas production is burned there, to sweat overcooked hydrocarbons out of sand and rock - like using caviar to fertilize a turnip patch.

Now that the dirtiest fossil fuel production on the planet has been halted by a forest fire amplified by climate change, perhaps the directors should consider shutting down the tar sands operation and opening an irony mine - they've hit a rich vein.

If anyone doesn't know what the tar sands operations look like, try these:

http://www.businessinsider.com/photos-destructive -canada-oil-sands-2012-10


There is plenty of crude oil reserves in North America to replace the production from the oilsands. However, hydraulic fracturing and marine production will have to be employed to tap those reserves. Other countries will simply replace that production with state-sponsored-terrorist crude oil in order to preserve market share...unless North American production steps up to the plate. And if the oilsands are forced to go the way of the dodo bird, then coal mines should meet the same fate.
"wildfires have never happened in the history of the world"

wat
Quoting 164. KoritheMan:



I think it was a poor attempt at sarcasm. Not sure what prompted such an idiotic response, though; it certainly seems devoid of any actual point or merit. Just angst.


Yea, I'm pretty sleep deprived at the moment. I just scrolled down and saw that comment without seeing his previous post. I guess this is when sarcasm warnings are useful.
the farce is strong tonight
Quoting 163. KoritheMan:



Hey, the guy's point... whatever it was... was really bad. But I don't believe in stifling free speech, regardless of what's said. He can say whatever he wants, so even though you gave me a like, I'm not giving you one right here. :P
Excellent post. Goes against the grain of the forum.
BBC - Canada wildfire evacuees airlift starts

"Canadian officials are airlifting some 8,000 people who fled north of Fort McMurray - the city which has been devastated by a massive wildfire.They also hope that the only motorway to the south will become safe on Friday to move the remaining 17,000 people, who are in danger of becoming trapped.
The entire city - more than 88,000 people - was evacuated three days ago. Some went north but most fled south. The fire in the province of Alberta has grown to 850 sq km (328.2 sq miles).
"Our focus right now is on getting those people south as quickly as possible," [Alberta Premier] Ms Notley said. "I must be very, very direct about this: it is apparent that the damage to the community of Fort McMurray is extensive and the city is not safe for residents.
On the prospect of returning to the city she said: "Unfortunately, we do know that it will not be a matter of days."
B.C. is burning up too now. Ft. Saint John fire has closed the AlCan down. That is a very popoular route to and from Alaska from Canada. There is only ONE other alternate at that point and you would need to know that you should take it hundreds of miles prior to the closing.

http://www.adn.com/article/20160505/wildfire-cana da-closes-alaska-highway

Link

There does come a point in time where you cannot take another route as there is no other route.

Incoming.... now WU has it at .08 instead of the .35 it said earlier, just all over the place with the forecast. hope we get soemthing and Joe too....lol
Ped, break out the sandbag again. Just in case.

Quoting 176. Dakster:

Ped, break out the sandbag again. Just in case.
I got it right here, but it might only get damp again....
Only if you accidentally leave it outside and spray it with the water hose.
It's unreal, come on man, a city of almost 90,000 has been completely evacuated. Fire exploded insanely. Fire is out of season and has wiped out a huge portion of a major Canadian city. Sanflee, as Dr. Masters stated from his blog a few days ago, we could see historic events again this year. We had but wait two days for that to come to fruition. And it's only early Spring. Your position just makes no sense. It's science. Do you just force yourself to not look at before and after pictures of the Arctic. Say a ten year time lapse? You know, watching the Arctic and Greenland rapidly melt right in front of your eyes.
DeepSeaRising - One of the criteria for a house I am looking at is that it is well above sea level...
Quoting 181. Dakster:

DeepSeaRising - One of the criteria for a house I am looking at is that it is well above sea level...


That's one great thing about the official Republican position on all that; they don't have to worry about all that sciencey stuff. Go ahead and buy beachfront in southern Florida! All is well. Got the money, get an ostrich too. Can have matching, bury your head, holes. Small print does say drowning may be a risk though. Good to hear your getting a house soon, that's great Dakster, hope your well.
I hear raindrops, sandbag at the ready.....
Still can't post links. Must be a conspiracy, I see others are still able to do so and I used to be able to do that.

Quoting 182. DeepSeaRising:



That's one great thing about the official Republican position on all that; they don't have to worry about all that sciencey stuff. Go ahead and buy beachfront in southern Florida! All is well. Got the money, get an ostrich too. Can have matching, bury your head, holes. Small print does say drowning may be a risk though. Good to hear your getting a house soon, that's great Dakster, hope your well.


Hope you are well too DeepSeaRising... Thanks.

Ped -- Glad you got the sandbag at the ready and that is an Interesting photo. Is that a SoCal Politician?
I do think it's very important to point out that there is a decent portion of Republicans who know AGW is very real. Anyone who can do any independent research has generally come to this conclusion on AGW. Those who don't get the first 20 anti-science sites your directed to when one does search. :( The curve on Republicans no longer drinking the cool-aid is climbing and we're doing ourselves a disservice if we don't realize 30-40% of Republicans believe in AGW. The average Republicans aren't the problem. It's the House and Senate Republicans who are the problem. They serve their masters, and that master is not the truth. Spreading a known lie, they do what they're told.

Quoting 186. Dakster:



{snip}

Ped -- Glad you got the sandbag at the ready and that is an Interesting photo. Is that a SoCal Politician?
Indian Hills PWS is reporting .02 so far and the ground in really wet outside, always a good sign.... no cars floating by as of yet....
Quoting 151. DeepSeaRising:

These crazy blocking patterns that are becoming more common are sending so much heat to Canada and through the Arctic and Alaska that we're seeing ever faster changes that are nothing short of looking proof in the eye. The acceleration rate of AGW on the Arctic and it's consequences to come should be taught in every science class. It really is faster and faster now and the Arctic is melting and will continue to do so until it's ice free. That's a reality we need to really begin to understand and prepare for.

No question for me too that the current ice and atmospheric state of the Arctic is the epitome of looking proof in the eye. For this time of year we have unprecedented melting with leads (cracks) spanning hundreds of miles almost all the way to the north pole, and there's lots more record-breaking heat and wind on the way! Also if you look closely you can see some new and longer thin cracks starting to form even closer to the canadian archipelago, where thicker ice usually keeps things intact. It seems like practically our whole arctic ice sheet is starting to rotate and break up! Reminds me of that song - "She's come undone"

Perhaps if we just tell the arctic to stop being such a doom and gloomer then everything will be ok.

190. bwi
Excellent summary of the early season weather and ice situation in the Arctic at the sea ice blog this morning. Well, the summary is excellent, the weather not so much...

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2016/05/beaufort-u nder-relentless-high-pressure.html
Quoting 141. DCSwithunderscores:



That suggests to me that reduced arctic sea ice could also be playing a role. It has been running record low in extent lately.


This is the latrst daily chart from Espen at Neven's forum:



This is through 5 May
Alberta wildfire: Fort McMurray devastation revealed
By James Cook Fort McMurray, BBC, 24 minutes ago

Crews scramble as Fort McMurray fire explodes in size, continues to threaten
John Cotter, The Canadian Press, Published Friday, May 6, 2016 6:27AM EDT
FORT MCMURRAY, Alta. -- Crews fighting to save Fort McMurray from rampaging flames water bombed the city Thursday to try to keep away a wildfire so intense it has spawned its own weather.
"It was creating its own high winds yesterday and even lightning was coming from the smoke clouds it created," Chad Morrison of Alberta Forestry told a briefing in Edmonton on Thursday. ...


Fort McMurray fire: Escape convoy planned
By Holly Yan, David Williams and Steve Almasy, CNN, Updated 0922 GMT (1722 HKT) May 6, 2016
Sometime Friday morning, Canadian officials will give the signal and a convoy of hundreds of vehicles will roll south, through the battered city of Fort McMurray, as evacuees try to get away from the flames of a massive wildfire.
Officials said the effort will involve 400 cars and a helicopter that will fly ahead to make sure the path is safe. ...


Ravaged by Fires and Oil Bust, Fort McMurray Ponders What's Next
Bloomberg, May 6, 2016 - 6:01 AM CEST

Canadian fires drive oil prices higher
Crude oil up more than 4 percent as one of the largest reserve areas in the world is under threat.
By Daniel J. Graeber, May 5, 2016 at 10:19 AM
remaining bullish on the upcoming hurricane season. noticed joe b is joining us bulls.
194. MahFL
Quoting 158. slavicthunder:

There is plenty of crude oil reserves in North America to replace the production from the oilsands.


I got news for you, Canada is part of North America.
Here's another video of the amazing destruction in Fort McMurray, this one from a fire crew driving through what used to be the Ravens Glen neighborhood in the Timberlea section of town.:



For reference, here's a satellite view of the neighborhood "before":

Good Morning Yall. Here is the Conus forecast for today and current look: plenty of rain out West today. As you can see from the loop, that stationary ULL just off the coast of California is helping to pump Pacific moisture into the Rockies and beyond hence the flash flooding forecast.




Looks like this wildfire in Canada really has a huge impact!

A Third of Power From Canada's Oil Sands Wiped Out by Wildfire
Bloomberg, May 6, 2016 — 2:18 AM CEST, Updated on May 6, 2016 — 6:01 AM CEST
Electricity flowing from plants at Canada’s oil sands operations has shrunk by almost a third as a wildfire ravages the region, forcing tens of thousands of people to evacuate in what may become the country’s costliest catastrophe. ...


And SPC is getting closer to a reasonable solution in terms of the potential for severe
weather in the Mid-West in the 3-4 day time frame: not quite sure yet whether the current
ULL off the coast of Cali is going to move East or whether a new one is going develop and
move East into the Plains:

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT FRI MAY 06 2016

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT A SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW...WITHIN A SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF SPLIT MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OR
REDEVELOP EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS MAY OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO
THE CONTINUING PROGRESSION OF A NUMBER OF SMALLER- SCALE
PERTURBATIONS AROUND ITS PERIPHERY...AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE DIGGING INLAND ACROSS
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...TOWARD THE NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES. THE
MANNER IN WHICH THIS OCCURS...PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD TO THE
EMBEDDED SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES...IS A POINT OF MODEL VARIABILITY
AND COULD HAVE A CONSIDERABLE IMPACT ON THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.





vibrant trough dipping way down into the western carib border of costa rica and nicaraqua!
And finally, the global tropics and closer to Conus are quiet today but the E-Pac monsoon trof still looking pretty healthy:

Combined image of all basins
bermuda triangle almost bagged another one! this time allegience air coming out of domincan rep. extreme turbulence.
Quoting 195. Neapolitan:

Here's another video of the amazing destruction in Fort McMurray, this one from a fire crew driving through what used to be the Ravens Glen neighborhood in the Timberlea section of town.:



For reference, here's a satellite view of the neighborhood "before":


WOW ! But.....kinda hard for me to find any compassion for the loss after watching the video and DEEPLY searching my soul. We humans continue to rape our planet, crap in our mess kit, and deny what we're doing to our only space ship called HOME. Mother natures back bite can be awfully cruel, but we continue our cruelty unabated. I suspect worse to come.
With the official start to the 2016 hurricane season only three weeks away, the atmoshere at the upper and mid levels in the MDR looks more moist than last year at this time. one should remember that one of the features that inhibited cyclogenessis was the dry sinking air in the tropical atlantic. another observation is the SAL is less dense with most of this activity concentrated north of 20N. Also vertical instability in the tropical atlantic is near or slightly above normal.
The SST is getting warmer all pointing to what may turn out to be an above average or bordering on an active season.
Quoting 158. slavicthunder:

There is plenty of crude oil reserves in North America to replace the production from the oilsands. However, hydraulic fracturing and marine production will have to be employed to tap those reserves. Other countries will simply replace that production with state-sponsored-terrorist crude oil in order to preserve market share...unless North American production steps up to the plate. And if the oilsands are forced to go the way of the dodo bird, then coal mines should meet the same fate.


There is no need to up oil production. Unless you are wishing for more problems due to climate change. Are you a fan of wildfires that destroy lives? Do you enjoy watching deaths by flood and heatwave? Any rational person would see the folly there. But, I digress.

U.S. oil consumption has been down and is predicted to stay there, there is no need to produce more as we use less.



As for coal, both production and consumption has been down in recent years Link.

The old ways are on the way out, welcome to the future.
Two potential X factors for the Atlantic season are how fast the westerly trades will set up this year (preventing vertical stacking) and whether the drought in SA is going to propagate some dry stable air into the region as waves start approaching the Lesser Antilles. My personal opinion and just noting these two important issues; we have seen tropical storms struggle the past several seasons in the Central Atlantic for related reasons and it has been several years since we have actually seen a strong hurricane (vs. tropical storm or weak cane like in the case of Dominica last year) plow into the Caribbean from the Atlantic. I find that to be an interesting departure in recent years from past climatology.
Quoting 194. MahFL:



I got news for you, Canada is part of North America.


Indeed it is. So is Mexico. We're just one big happy North American family.

And if anybody out there fails to find any compassion for the fire victims in Fort Mac...then you have no soul whatsoever. I personally have no compassion for anybody who supports OPEC or Persian Gulf oil. Let's think about all of the diesel fuel that has been burned by the United States in supporting military operations in that region. Let's think about all of the oil burned to generate electricity to waterflood the Ghawar oil field in Saudi. And finally, let's consider the human tragedy of allowing an evil cartel to manipulate the world's oil markets.

We really need to get off of oil. The EIA tells us that the globe demands 94 million bbl of oil per day...so we aren't doing ourselves any favors.
However, it does look like the African wave train will be pretty healthy this year due to plenty of rain in the Sahel so far:

Satellite Image
Quoting 206. slavicthunder:



Indeed it is. So is Mexico. We're just one big happy North American family.

And if anybody out there fails to find any compassion for the fire victims in Fort Mac...then you have no soul whatsoever. I personally have no compassion for anybody who supports OPEC or Persian Gulf oil. Let's think about all of the diesel fuel that has been burned by the United States in supporting military operations in that region. Let's think about all of the oil burned to generate electricity to waterflood the Ghawar oil field in Saudi. And finally, let's consider the human tragedy of allowing an evil cartel to manipulate the world's oil markets.

We really need to get off of oil. The EIA tells us that the globe demands 94 million bbl of oil per day...so we aren't doing ourselves any favors.

Then I have no soul whatsoever. For I feel compassion with corals and such plus the seven billion who depend on it.
Shouldn't work in the tarsands. The rest is choice and I've nil compassion.
Quoting 204. Naga5000:



There is no need to up oil production. Unless you are wishing for more problems due to climate change. Are you a fan of wildfires that destroy lives? Do you enjoy watching deaths by flood and heatwave? Any rational person would see the folly there. But, I digress.

U.S. oil consumption has been down and is predicted to stay there, there is no need to produce more as we use less.



As for coal, both production and consumption has been down in recent years Link.

The old ways are on the way out, welcome to the future.

This kind of talk might get us censored or banned, even with our friends.
Apparently Hotwhopper is bought by the oil industry. For it asks donations to the Red Cross for Fort McMurray, which would be donations for the oil industry. And it had censored away e.g. this: The time has come to turn up the heat on those who are wrecking planet Earth.

Some of us are a bit up front. Within only a few years they 'll pretend they were up front and the lack of marks on the blogs will 'prove' it.

Burn.
I see the chihuahuas are nipping at my ankles again today. Get away you little buggers. Shoo.
212. ackee
Quoting 203. stoormfury:

With the official start to the 2016 hurricane season only three weeks away, the atmoshere at the upper and mid levels in the MDR looks more moist than last year at this time. one should remember that one of the features that inhibited cyclogenessis was the dry sinking air in the tropical atlantic. another observation is the SAL is less dense with most of this activity concentrated north of 20N. Also vertical instability in the tropical atlantic is near or slightly above normal.
The SST is getting warmer all pointing to what may turn out to be an above average or bordering on an active season.
I noticed you have not mentioned any thing about shear which is still high right now
Guns, death and noise
Sand, oil and blood
Frontiers drawn on paper
No consideration made for
The poor creature who is living
By the grace of God just giving
He's live on network news
Live on network news

Flags, princes, kings
Patriotic tools
As freedom lies in twisted heaps
Whose final breath his soul to keep
Whose greatest foe, the endless sleep
Whose dying wish to reach next week
A bloody star on the network news
A bloody star on the network news

Tanks, boats and planes
Fire, pain and lies
Environmental terrorists
Tease propaganda's paper fist
Whose trade is all the truth that fits
Who often lies but never sits
But on the fence it's the network news
Yes, on the fence it's network news

The lion and the serpent parade out in the sun
All order, flex and gesture
All hail - the techno infidel has come
With satellite bravado and infra-red texture

Beyond these days in time to come
Whose fate is it to measure
Upon these sands such damage done
To spoil God's finest treasure






Quoting 208. cRRKampen:


Then I have no soul whatsoever. For I feel compassion with corals and such plus the seven billion who depend on it.
Shouldn't work in the tarsands. The rest is choice and I've nil compassion.


You feel compassion for coral, but not for families losing their entire town? You're a psychopath.
An image that puts the size of the wildfire in Fort McMurray into perspective.

The current area of the fire overlaying Toronto. Can't post the image for some reason.

Disheartened a bit that one cannot feel compassion for others in need simply because of where and how they make a living.

If anyone is disillusioned that "mitigation" and "adaptation" to the continued effects of climate change will be smooth-sailing . . . .
Quoting 214. VAbeachhurricanes:



You feel compassion for coral, but not for families losing their entire town? You're a psychopath.

1, 2, too many, don't exist.

So of course you had to misquote and leave out the 7 billion. Because you don't care, wouldn't that be so?
The enviro-nazis always end up showing their true colors...exploiting a tragedy to further their cause. Especially over an issue that happens to be especially newsworthy. And yet where are the protests in Vancouver over Powder River coal being shipped to Asia? No noise about that. These soulless individuals would certainly not have the courage to go to Russia, China or Saudi Arabia to protest hydrocarbon production. They pick the sexy issues, but ignore most of the others.

Some people think you have to burn down peoples' homes to make a difference. Those people need professional help. The real way to make a difference is to get every single human being to look in the mirror and say "what can I do to use less energy and consume less water?" In my case, I work from home, walk pretty much everywhere, and only use my car for the occasional highway trip. It doesn't make me a hero, but at least I'm making some kind of effort. People really need to think every time they flick on a light switch or turn the key in the ignition.

And kudos to all of the families opening their homes to the fire victims. Well done.
218. OKsky
Chihuahuas must love the taste of incoherent, emotionally charged dribble.
I love how you contribute to this community by conflating outrage over irresponsible pillaging of resources with a sociopathic response to families losing everything they have.... nothing toxic about that... give yourself a pat on the back, good job!

Here is some more good news on the decline of oil dependence.
Which I think everyone agrees is an awesome thing.
Quoting 216. cRRKampen:


1, 2, too many, don't exist.

So of course you had to misquote and leave out the 7 billion. Because you don't care, wouldn't that be so?


Yes of course "I've nil compassion" could have so many different contexts.
Quoting 217. slavicthunder:

The enviro-nazis always end up showing their true colors...exploiting a tragedy to further their cause. Especially over an issue that happens to be especially newsworthy. And yet where are the protests in Vancouver over Powder River coal being shipped to Asia? No noise about that. These soulless individuals would certainly not have the courage to go to Russia, China or Saudi Arabia to protest hydrocarbon production. They pick the sexy issues, but ignore most of the others.

Some people think you have to burn down peoples' homes to make a difference. Those people need professional help. The real way to make a difference is to get every single human being to look in the mirror and say "what can I do to use less energy and consume less water?" In my case, I work from home, walk pretty much everywhere, and only use my car for the occasional highway trip. It doesn't make me a hero, but at least I'm making some kind of effort. People really need to think every time they flick on a light switch or turn the key in the ignition.

And kudos to all of the families opening their homes to the fire victims. Well done.



The implication that you and only you are making a difference is flawed. You know nothing of others and what they do. Instead you construct a straw man in order to both justify your own position and denigrate others. Your straw man also ignores the very real structural factors that limit the impact an individual can have. Sure people have power and agency, but both power and agency are limited by corporate and governmental power and agency. The real solution comes from all sides. Do not proclaim that those you disagree with do nothing, such unfounded absolutes are a large sign of ignorance.
Quoting 217. slavicthunder:

The enviro-nazis always end up showing their true colors...exploiting a tragedy to further their cause. Especially over an issue that happens to be especially newsworthy. And yet where are the protests in Vancouver over Powder River coal being shipped to Asia? No noise about that. These soulless individuals would certainly not have the courage to go to Russia, China or Saudi Arabia to protest hydrocarbon production. They pick the sexy issues, but ignore most of the others.

Some people think you have to burn down peoples' homes to make a difference. Those people need professional help. The real way to make a difference is to get every single human being to look in the mirror and say "what can I do to use less energy and consume less water?" In my case, I work from home, walk pretty much everywhere, and only use my car for the occasional highway trip. It doesn't make me a hero, but at least I'm making some kind of effort. People really need to think every time they flick on a light switch or turn the key in the ignition.

And kudos to all of the families opening their homes to the fire victims. Well done.


Don't have a car.
560 seconds walk to work.
And some and some again. No problem there, though my carbon footprint will still be far larger than most of this planet's poor inhabitants.

The coal, by the way, is being shipped to my country, Holland, which is owned by Shell and Exxon. So last year Holland burnt more coal than ever before, while renewable percentage has actually fallen third year in a row.

Of course I want the Millenium Floods (those that hit Central Europe every dozen years now) here. Only chance to make a difference though I truly think it is too late anyway. Too many people feeling sorry for the tar sands and wanting not a shred of an idea of what - among all those other ecological kill-offs we are facing - the coral means for the planet.

The Ideologists of Plunder will call those criticizing that Ideology 'environ-nazi's', just like today's nazi's try to push the meme that the German nazi's of the Third Reich were 'communists'. This, now, is truly soulless behaviour. No soul, no thinking by self - must project, must annex.
Quoting 219. VAbeachhurricanes:



Yes of course "I've nil compassion" could have so many different contexts.

Still couldn't read '7 billion'. Just smoke & mirrors.
Quoting 222. cRRKampen:


Still couldn't read '7 billion'. Just smoke & mirrors.


Oh so because you said the words 7 billion the rest of the words in your post don't mean anything. "Smoke and mirrors" youre a hoot.
Quoting 210. cRRKampen:


This kind of talk might get us censored or banned, even with our friends.
Apparently Hotwhopper is bought by the oil industry. For it asks donations to the Red Cross for Fort McMurray, which would be donations for the oil industry. And it had censored away e.g. this: The time has come to turn up the heat on those who are wrecking planet Earth.

Some of us are a bit up front. Within only a few years they 'll pretend they were up front and the lack of marks on the blogs will 'prove' it.

Burn.



Donations to the red Cross are not donations to the oil companies . . . focus your indignation in a positive manner. Educate those around you. Become active in politics to initiate a paradigm shift that wrests power generation away from big corporations and into the hands of individuals. The technology exists, is continually being improved, and with the proper incentives would and could lead to a "democratization" of power generation in many areas of the US and the world, creating new opportunities for employment. Do not demonize those that work to feed their families, nor the families themselves.
Quoting 18. weathermanwannabe:

I used to fish regularly at a large local Wildlife Refuge South of Tallahassee (St. Marks Refuge) and the electronic gate to the park opens at 6:00 am. About eight years, it rained/thundered most of the day on Saturday, and with a clearing forecast overnight and smooth waters on Sun am, I was the only one at the gate at Sunrise. Driving through the park on the way to the coast, I noticed a glow in the distance in one of the tree lines; and slowed down and stopped as I got close. Sure enough, about 100 feet up on one of the tall pines, a section at the top of the tree trunk was glowing and charred like a piece of coal on grill; lightening strike lit up the tree. Is was very cool to be the first person that day to witness it.............The Park Ranger was already aware at the gate as I was leaving later in the day.


Should be Lightning, not Lightening. Dictionary.com for the definition of "lightening".

Quoting 224. daddyjames:



Donations to the red Cross are not donations to the oil companies . . . focus your indignation in a positive manner. Educate those around you. Become active in politics to initiate a paradigm shift that wrests power generation away from big corporations and into the hands of individuals. The technology exists, is continually being improved, and with the proper incentives would and could lead to a "democratization" of power generation in many areas of the US and the world, create new opportunities for employment. Do not demonize those that work to feed their families, nor the families themselves.

These donations are.

Separate state & corporation.
Grassroots. I am not a political animal. Like Trudeau and all Canadian parlementarians but a single one are, who all and sundry repress all talk of climate change wrt this 100% climate changed induced hyperfire.
You can tell when the alleged "environmentalists" get called out on the carpet for their parochial approach to environmentalism. These same individuals who call themselves "compassionate liberals" then proceed to contradict themselves by directing their cacophony at innocent people who are just trying to feed their families.

I see the pomeranians have joined in with the chihuahuas. Somebody call the dog catcher or the SPCA.
Quoting 223. VAbeachhurricanes:



Oh so because you said the words 7 billion the rest of the words in your post don't mean anything. "Smoke and mirrors" youre a hoot.

You know nothing about coral. This is why you can do nothing but some namecalling.
You do not give a damn about anyone - humanity - the 7 billion. This is why you have to be mad at those who do care.
Quoting 227. slavicthunder:

You can tell when the alleged "environmentalists" get called out on the carpet for their parochial approach to environmentalism. These same individuals who call themselves "compassionate liberals" then proceed to contradict themselves by directing their cacophony at innocent people who are just trying to feed their families.

I see the pomeranians have joined in with the chihuahuas. Somebody call the dog catcher or the SPCA.


'Innocent people who are just trying to feed their families'.
Rich country, totally insured. While the work they are doing are killing uninsured people, families, as we speak in e.g. India and half of Africa.
Work invested in destroying the entire ocean ecology, with that its chemistry, with that the atmosphere's chemistry.
In this age it is immoral to work for a concentration camp or for extracting oil, coal or gas to burn. But I guess you cried when they cleared a number of those camps couple decades ago.
Quoting 228. cRRKampen:


You know nothing about coral. This is why you can do nothing but some namecalling.
You do not give a damn about anyone - humanity - the 7 billion. This is why you have to be mad at those who do care.




Okay now I know you're a troll.
Quoting 226. cRRKampen:


These donations are.

Separate state & corporation.
Grassroots. I am not a political animal. Like Trudeau and all Canadian parlementarians but a single one are, who all and sundry repress all talk of climate change wrt this 100% climate changed induced hyperfire.



We all are political animals - whether we like to admit it or not. Unless people remind themselves that "we are the government" and stop treating the government and corporations as a separate entities that cannot be changed - well the "revolution" wil never occur. The article you referred to did not advocate violence or destruction or vindictive revenge against those participating in activities directly contributing to climate change. What it did encourage was people to speak out, make their voices heard so that change (of a positive kind) can occur.

Violent revolutions are sometimes necessary - in regions of the world were voices are silenced by oppressive regimes (through violence).

We do not exist or operate in such a system. If enough people make their voices heard and made their choices known, politicians and corporations would have to appropriately respond or find themselves left behind as the populace moves forward.
http://extremeenergy.org/files/2013/03/tar_sands_ex _-37-1.jpg

Chassez le naturel, il revient au galop

what an event......it has different meanings for all of us.....I do hope all are safe....my condolences to the two young people that died recently escaping....and hope the fire fighters from air and ground stay safe
One day the oil is gonna end

Quoting 221. cRRKampen:


Don't have a car.
560 seconds walk to work.
And some and some again. No problem there, though my carbon footprint will still be far larger than most of this planet's poor inhabitants.

The coal, by the way, is being shipped to my country, Holland, which is owned by Shell and Exxon. So last year Holland burnt more coal than ever before, while renewable percentage has actually fallen third year in a row.

Of course I want the Millenium Floods (those that hit Central Europe every dozen years now) here. Only chance to make a difference though I truly think it is too late anyway. Too many people feeling sorry for the tar sands and wanting not a shred of an idea of what - among all those other ecological kill-offs we are facing - the coral means for the planet.

The Ideologists of Plunder will call those criticizing that Ideology 'environ-nazi's', just like today's nazi's try to push the meme that the German nazi's of the Third Reich were 'communists'. This, now, is truly soulless behaviour. No soul, no thinking by self - must project, must annex.


If you lived in Holland, which I assume you don't based on this post, you would know that Holland is not another name for the Netherlands as most people assume, its a region in Netherlands. One that Kampen isn't even in lol.
Quoting 231. daddyjames:



We all are political animals - whether we like to admit it or not. Unless people remind themselves that "we are the government" and stop treating the government and corporations as a separate entities that cannot be changed - well the "revolution" wil never occur. The article you referred to did not advocate violence or destruction or vindictive revenge against those participating in activities directly contributing to climate change. What it did encourage was people to speak out, make their voices heard so that change (of a positive kind) can occur.

Violent revolutions are sometimes necessary - in regions of the world were voices are silenced by oppressive regimes (through violence).

We do not exist or operate in such a system. If enough people make their voices heard and made their choices known, politicians and corporations would have to appropriate respond or find themselves left behind as the populace moves forward.

Much to agree with. So, then, I am an 'activist', because I speak out some here and there.

What I meant with 'political animal' is the type of person that gets to parliament/government. For some reason once such a person achieves a certain level in politics he almost always becomes a tool for some sort of corporation. So even the Canadian PM has instructed all and sundry to not breathe 'climate change'. And all and sundry follow suit, except for a single parliamentarian who forms a one-seat party. That is no democracy, of course.

So we need constitution. Among this: separation of state and corporation.
Quoting 234. VAbeachhurricanes:



If you lived in Holland, which I assume you don't based on this post, you would know that Holland is not another name for the Netherlands as most people assume, its a region in Netherlands. One that Kampen isn't even in lol.

Ik woon in Gouda, Zuid-Holland. Had je nog wat?
deah lawd, not againz....
Quoting 233. Patrap:

One day the oil is gonna end



And it is dawn.
Quoting 237. JNFlori30A:

deah lawd, not againz....



That poor kitten
Quoting 225. Guyinjeep16:



Should be Lightning, not Lightening. Dictionary.com for the definition of "lightening".




Thanks; feel free to spell check my future entries.
Quoting 240. weathermanwannabe:



Thanks; feel free to spell check my future entries.


Entrys*
Quoting 235. cRRKampen:


Much to agree with. So, then, I am an 'activist', because I speak out some here and there.

What I meant with 'political animal' is the type of person that gets to parliament/government. For some reason once such a person achieves a certain level in politics he almost always becomes a tool for some sort of corporation. So even the Canadian PM has instructed all and sundry to not breathe 'climate change'. And all and sundry follow suit, except for a single parliamentarian who forms a one-seat party. That is no democracy, of course.

So we need constitution. Among this: separation of state and corporation.


i agree that corporations hold much too much sway, as evidenced by their ability to pour untold amount of money into the political process here in the Sates. However, at least on the national level, they have been fairly unsuccessful in electing those they feel would be most beneficial to them.

Transitions form one paradigm to another - I believe - must be gradual otherwise the economic shock would inflict damage mostly to those that do not have the resources to cope (I being one of them) - for example, many of the "innocents" in India derive their electricity from coal powered plants.

I don't have any solutions, necessarily - except for that those of us in the richer nations (where the vast majority of fossil-fuel consumption occurs) support those that propose serious ideas for transitioning away from fossil-fuel resources towards alternative energy sources. And if located in a political climate where there is much resistance, do what you can and encourage others to do the same.

Edit: spelling and typos corrected (I think).
"...If enough people make their voices heard and made their choices known, politicians and corporations would have to appropriate respond..."

Valid point here. Once individuals accept the reality of AGW and the greenhouse effect, then they start to make lifestyle choices that correspond to their concern for the environment. These issues are then raised with their MLAs, MPs, senators, representatives, etc. and eventually concern translates into legislation. And then corporations are forced to play ball, because the citizenry will not support entities that have no respect for the planet.
Quoting 244. slavicthunder:

"...If enough people make their voices heard and made their choices known, politicians and corporations would have to appropriate respond..."

Valid point here. Once individuals accept the reality of AGW and the greenhouse effect, then they start to make lifestyle choices that correspond to their concern for the environment. These issues are then raised with their MLAs, MPs, senators, representatives, etc. and eventually concern translates into legislation. And then corporations are forced to play ball, because the citizenry will not support entities that have no respect for the planet.

The big question is: wth does it take to finally have a number of individuals accept the reality of AGW? Given that absolutely everyone, including you, respond to every single AGW induced incident by shouting those who call it that away. Every. Single. Time. Every Haiyan, Patricia, Winston or Fantama again. Each hyperwildfire some more. So what do you propose?
Quoting 243. daddyjames:



[..]paradigm to another - I believe - must be gradual [..]

To prevent all kinds of shock, interhuman violence in general too - as is well known.
The trouble is that this time we don't have the time for a gradual transition. In fact, I think probability has risen to over half that we will see a transition comparable to the worst Cambrian events pushed upon us before more than me alone knows wtf is happening at all.
Sorry, Canada, that this fire is near such a remote yet large population. Sorry for all affected by the fire. Best wishes to all. Take care of each other. I know you will.

According to this excellent New York Times article describing it, the fire started in a wooded area outside of town. The cause of the Ft. McMurray fire is being investigated (ref: video at same link). The world may never know what or who started it.

"It's not rocket science to connect the dots between the preconditions for the Fort McMurray fire and large-scale, long-term trends." (Masters and Henson in this blog) So true. Not any kind of science at all.

The fire came in Spring and not Summer. True. The fire occurred in a relatively remote area. True. The weather conditions were perfect for a fire to start and grow. True. Tens of thousands of humans and their homes in the path of the fire. True. Heckuva larger connection between weather, population, remoteness and the spread of this wildfire. And none related to AGW. Weather brought ideal conditions for fire start and weather continues to make it near impossible to fight this fire, not to mention the wind direction change Wednesday from the front that came through. Simple. Straightforward. Weather.

A couple day old article from the Edmonton Sun states... "All of Fort McMurray is now wondering if they will have homes to return to, as the fire that started Sunday quickly overwhelmed firefighters and the city's resources."

For balance, another meteorologist's article and reader comments on the Ft McMurray fire showing a different tone than that of this blog and comments.
Ok, Dutch...let's roll up a spliff and discuss it. We have a reasonable bridge fuel with natural gas, so we can start with converting coal plants to NG, and then do likewise with buses. We have lots of hydroelectric potential up here in Canada, and the HVDC tech to bring that electricity southward. Geologists that currently work in oil extraction can direct their energy towards geothermal R&D. Let's keep putting more solar panels on more rooftops. Let's find a way to build wind turbines while mitigating bird mortality and visual pollution. Microhydro has potential.

The elephant in the room is nuclear. Not sure how that is going to play out.
Quoting 236. cRRKampen:


Ik woon in Gouda, Zuid-Holland. Had je nog wat?
Hey, cRRK. We Americans know what you call your country in your country, get it? /s. LOL.
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 2m2 minutes ago
Sadly, May 8th (Mother's Day) and 9th are still looking like big severe weather days across the Plains.
Quoting 247. Barefootontherocks:

Sorry, Canada, that this fire is near such a remote yet large population. Sorry for all affected by the fire. Best wishes to all. Take care of each other. I know you will.

According to this excellent New York Times article describing it, the fire started in a wooded area outside of town. The cause of the Ft. McMurray fire is being investigated (ref: video at same link). The world may never know what or who started it.

"It's not rocket science to connect the dots between the preconditions for the Fort McMurray fire and large-scale, long-term trends." (Masters and Henson in this blog) So true. Not any kind of science at all.

The fire came in Spring and not Summer. True. The fire occurred in a relatively remote area. True. The weather conditions were perfect for a fire to start and grow. True. Tens of thousands of humans and their homes in the path of the fire. True. Heckuva larger connection between weather, population, remoteness and the spread of this wildfire. And none related to AGW. Weather brought ideal conditions for fire start and weather continues to make it near impossible to fight this fire, not to mention the wind direction change Wednesday from the front that came through. Simple. Straightforward. Weather.

A couple day old article from the Edmonton Sun states... "All of Fort McMurray is now wondering if they will have homes to return to, as the fire that started Sunday quickly overwhelmed firefighters and the city's resources."

For balance, another meteorologist's article and reader comments on the Ft McMurray fire showing a different tone than that of this blog and comments.


The key phrase is "long term conditions" - those not connected to weather events, but to trends evident for several years (which also clearly demonstrates that El Nino is not the sole cause) clearly presented within the blog.

Yes, weather conditions allowed for the rapid spread of the fire. But the conditions that have occurred over several years (the lack of snow cover in the spring] allowed for the event to even occur.
253. OKsky
Quoting 248. slavicthunder:

Ok, Dutch...let's roll up a spliff and discuss it. We have a reasonable bridge fuel with natural gas, so we can start with converting coal plants to NG, and then do likewise with buses. We have lots of hydroelectric potential up here in Canada, and the HVDC tech to bring that electricity southward. Geologists that currently work in oil extraction can direct their energy towards geothermal R&D. Let's keep putting more solar panels on more rooftops. Let's find a way to build wind turbines while mitigating bird mortality and visual pollution. Microhydro has potential.

The elephant in the room is nuclear. Not sure how that is going to play out.


Solar is about to blow up huge.... for real this time. =P

Solar is already projected to beat NG on price in a few years.
Here is another story about it.


I am actually with ya on nuke power. I wish it didn't freak people out as much as it does, because yeah, waaay better than coal by every measure (including cancer rates)... hopefully with other advances it will be a moot point though.
Capital Weather Gang ‏@capitalweather 1h1 hour ago
"The wireless path from weather satellites back to ground stations on Earth is in jeopardy."

Capital Weather Gang ‏@capitalweather 2h2 hours ago
Commercial interests may block transmission of vital weather data. We can’t allow it
Link
Science? Well the science is quite clear.

"In addition, long-term trends associated with human-caused global warming include earlier spring snow melt and later starts to the winter season, which is lengthening wildfire seasons from Alaska to Alberta, and south to New Mexico.

According to Mike Flannigan, a wildfire specialist at the University of Alberta, the area burned by wildfires in Alberta has more than doubled since 1970, a trend he said is partly tied to global warming.

Climate data shows that Fort McMurray has seen an increase in the number of days with high temperatures above 25 degrees Celsius, or 77 degrees Fahrenheit, since 1950. This number has jumped from an average of 21 such days in 1950 to an average of 35 such days in 2010.

A study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in 2013 found that boreal forests, which form a ring around the world just below the Arctic Circle, have been burning at rates that are unprecedented in 10,000 years. That study tied such burn rates to warming temperatures and increased evaporation.

Global warming is also leading to more extreme fire weather days such as what occurred on Tuesday and Wednesday, with dry soils, record temperatures and strong winds.

A study Flannigan published in the journal Climatic Change earlier this year, for example, found that as average temperatures increase in parts of Canada, the result will be "a higher frequency of extreme fire weather days" due mainly to the drying influence of warmer temperatures.

“The weather is becoming more conducive to fire like we’re seeing this spring," Flannigan told Mashable in an interview.

“The increase in fire activity in Canada is due to human-caused climate change,” he said." Link

Now tying this particular event directly to climate change is difficult, however, knowing that climate change makes these events more likely is in fact quite telling. But that's okay, deny deny deny.
Quoting 252. daddyjames:



The key phrase is "long term conditions" - those not connected to weather events, but to trends evident for several years (which also clearly demonstrates that El Nino is not the sole cause) clearly presented within the blog.

Yes, weather conditions allowed for the rapid spread of the fire. But the conditions that have occurred over several years (the lack of snow cover in the spring] allowed for the event to even occur.
Yes, I can read and comprehend the phrase "long term conditions," daddyjames. A sly phrase that just might be aimed at trying to get a layman to blame the fire on AGW. Sensationalism doesn't float my boat.

Your words, "Trends for several years..." are weather trends. What allowed for this event to occur and for anyone to pay this much attention, besides the weather conditions... c'mom. There are more factors than "weather trends," among them. Some were mentioned in the blog.
~fire cause being investigated (arson?)
~a large, populated area in the way of the fire (Two other ongoing fires in Canada are not getting this attention.)
~a "normal" for this time of year cold front changing the wind direction by 180 degrees
~a remote area where local resources were not able to contain the fire quickly.
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach May 2 Walnut Creek, CA
The NW Pacific has been TC-free since Dec 17. The last time this occurred (TC-free from 12/17 thru 5/1) was 1982/83
Quoting 212 ackee
yes i forgot about shear but that is seasonal now and will be subject to change as soon as La Nina sets in. The atmosphere in the Nino 3 4 region is still in a week El Nino stage and we expect this level of westerly wind shear.
It's a da*n wildfire, Naga.
And a large number of humans happened to be in the way (.)
Now, if you'll excuse me, the garden I call "Life" needs tending.
Quoting 254. washingtonian115:

Capital Weather Gang ‏@capitalweather 1h1 hour ago
"The wireless path from weather satellites back to ground stations on Earth is in jeopardy."

Capital Weather Gang ‏@capitalweather 2h2 hours ago
Commercial interests may block transmission of vital weather data. We can’t allow it
Link
Surely this is a joke. After all, privatization has done such wonders around the nation. No matter where you look, taking things out of government hands and placing them under the control of for-profit entities has always resulted in only the best. Whether you're talking about prisons, or toll roads, or parking meters, or schools, or water and sewer utilities, or any other place where the profit motive has been placed ahead of people, we've seen improved service at lower cost. Okay, well, we've been promised improved service at lower cost, though we've so far not actually seen improved service at lower cost. But, still, free enterprise uber alles, amirite? So let's privatize the entire weather service! What could possibly go wrong?
261. IDTH
I swear the political/global warming talk on here is getting real old real fast. Like it's just a straight line of arguing that no one ever listens to and instead just try to come up with a rebuttal for it that supports their point of view. Can we just zip it and stop feeding these people more because if they're not going to listen the 50th time what makes you think they'll listen the 51st time. I don't mind this talk occasionally but when I have to scroll through like half the comment section to avoid it, it's clear that none of this is getting anywhere and it's just annoying.
Quoting 257. Gearsts:

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach May 2 Walnut Creek, CA
The NW Pacific has been TC-free since Dec 17. The last time this occurred (TC-free from 12/17 thru 5/1) was 1982/83
This is not good, I hope this lack of TC's picks up soon, as I believe there is their a correlation with the amount of storms in the Pacific NW, and the Eastern Pacific, in regards to the amount of TC;s in the Atlantic? The heat has to build up somewhere.
Quoting 261. IDTH:

I swear the political/global warming talk on here is getting real old real fast. Like it's just a straight line of arguing that no one ever listens to and instead just try to come up with a rebuttal for it that supports their point of view. Can we just zip it and stop feeding these people more because if they're not going to listen the 50th time what makes you think they'll listen the 51st time. I don't mind this talk occasionally but when I have to scroll through like half the comment section to avoid it, it's clear that none of this is getting anywhere and it's just annoying.

Well I wish it weren't neccessary.
When I quit that kind of talk, I've absolutely given up. Then it's everyone for himself. Literally. No joke. I could look forward to it, even, for I have some acute survival skills.

It helps to imagine the near future (oceanic ecosystem gone, chemistry amok everywhere) and to imagine looking back at these conversations.
Especially as we'll still be running into folks who cry 'we didn't know. They didn't warn us. et c'.

Ps, something else to learn for very many here. This is not 'political talk'. This is something else. It is talk from individuals within an endangered species most of whom haven't a clue. Yet.

Don't know if we will get anymore rain today. WU is showing some chance of about the same amount as yesterday (.02)
Indian Hills PWS reported .03 last night, The CoCoRaHS site around the corner from me didn't report anything. It rained here for
awhile and it should have been measurable. I don't have a rain gauge.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 256. Barefootontherocks:

Yes, I can read and comprehend the phrase "long term conditions," daddyjames. A sly phrase that just might be aimed at trying to get a layman to blame the fire on AGW. S

And this is why the Keeling Curve goes up and up, the coral dies, sub900hPa cyclones become common and Alberta is burning.
Because the actual cause of all that is totally taboo.
Quoting 249. SouthTampa:

Hey, cRRK. We Americans know what you call your country in your country, get it? /s. LOL.

I lived in a different anglo-speaking country. We actually put 'Holland' on letters back (yes yes, they arrived).
Also, this banter is dismissal of my messages. Isn't it.
Quoting 261. IDTH:

I swear the political/global warming talk on here is getting real old real fast. Like it's just a straight line of arguing that no one ever listens to and instead just try to come up with a rebuttal for it that supports their point of view. Can we just zip it and stop feeding these people more because if they're not going to listen the 50th time what makes you think they'll listen the 51st time. I don't mind this talk occasionally but when I have to scroll through like half the comment section to avoid it, it's clear that none of this is getting anywhere and it's just annoying.


Feel free to put me on ignore.
Quoting 268. Naga5000:



Feel free to put me on ignore.

The tragedy is #261 is right in his concluding sentence.
So Naga5000, what are we doing it for?
I mean, I happen to have evolved a very specific set of answers to this one. They are 1) for my amusement and 2) to have no qualms for those who will say 'we didn't know/they didn't warn us'. Because they will run amok.
Quoting 269. cRRKampen:


The tragedy is #261 is right in his concluding sentence.
So Naga5000, what are we doing it for?
I mean, I happen to have evolved a very specific set of answers to this one. They are 1) for my amusement and 2) to have no qualms for those who will say 'we didn't know/they didn't warn us'. Because they will run amok.


That's a fine question. My answers aren't so evolved.
Alberta's aging forests increase risk of 'catastrophic fires': 2012 report
http://edmontonjournal.com/news/local-news/alberta s-aging-forests-increase-risk-of-catastrophic-fire s-2012-report

Forests need to burn.

Here is wikipedia’s list of hottest temperatures ever recorded in Canada. 1937, 1936, 1941 ….
https://sunshinehours.net/2016/05/05/fort-mcmurray -and-climate-change/

Nobody denies that the climate is changing, but forest mismanagement due to budget problems has only exacerbated the situation.

Nothing new here move along...

Quoting 270. Naga5000:



That's a fine question. My answers aren't so evolved.

I stepped into the climate wars rather actively for a number of years and had to evolve some for self-preservation, say. Safer for the climate revisionists, too.
I agree that what we are seeing this year is way beyond having discussions over the reality of climate change. We desperately need good quality models of ENSO and for timing of El Ninos. The key is that it is all geophysics and how the ocean sloshes in response to variations in the Earth's rotation rate. This is essentially a 4 parameter model which includes the 2 major wobbles in the earth's tri-axis and the two primary lunar modes.



This turns out really no different in complexity than predicting tides, with the difference being that the ocean's thermocline has a different response than is described by tidal theory.

Context/Earth
274. Jawja
The ENSO, NAO, jet streams, volcanism are "natural fluctuations" beyond human control. Some are now acting as if "we" hadn't added 50 ppm CO2 since 1987 along with two billion more people such events might not have happened. The wildfire here, like many others was caused by humans, not by "global warming". The stage was set by the "natural fluctuations" and the players are the people visiting our forests in increasing numbers, setting these fires accidentally or in some cases deliberately.
It's simple, heat is energy,more heat = super charged storms and conditions ( fire,flood,drought,etc).you don't have to agree you just have to watch the news, nature will explain it .
Quoting 274. Jawja:

go to noaa paleoclimate and see when the planet had these conditions.. (Co2 over 300 ppm) A couple of mass extinctions should come into the picture.and you think this doesn't apply to humans???? So where did the Co2 come from?? volcanos only .65 gton/yr. fossil fuel @35 gton/yr.