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Brutal Heat Intensifies Across India; Generous Monsoon on the Way?

By: Bob Henson 3:24 PM GMT on May 04, 2016

There are encouraging signs of a wetter-than-average monsoon in the cards for India this year--but until it arrives, millions of residents will have to deal with torrid pre-monsoon heat assaulting South and Southeast Asia this spring. More than 300 fatalities have been reported in the east-central Indian states of Odisha and Telangana. On May 1 and 2, at least 12 Indian locations broke or tied their all-time highest May temperatures. Accentuating the premature nature of this year’s heat, most of the prior records had been set during the last week of May. (Thanks to meteorologist Michael Theusner of Klimahaus for these statistics.) Extra weeks of heat stress are an ominous portent in this highly vulnerable nation. Some 2500 people were killed in 2015 by India’s second-deadliest pre-monsoonal heat wave on record, close behind 1998 (2541 deaths).

The pre-monsoon season is naturally a hot period in India: it’s the increasing contrast between land and sea that eventually brings the heat-quenching, life-giving summer monsoon. Yet even by pre-monsoonal standards, April was extraordinarily hot across the region, as reported by WU weather historian Christopher Burt. On April 24, it hit 48.5°C [119.3°F] in the east-central town of Titlagarh--the highest temperature ever reliably measured in India during April. “You can say there is an undeclared curfew in Titlagarh after 10 am. If you go out, you are either a very brave person or you are an outsider,” local Congress member Upendra Bag told the Hindustan Times. Titlagarh’s all-time high is 50.1°C (122.2°F) on June 3, 2003, and India’s hottest reliably measured temperature is 50.6°C (123.1°F) at Pachpadra on May 25, 1886.


Figure 1. Residents of New Delhi endure another day of sizzling heat on Monday, May 2, 2016. Monday hit a record 46°C (114.8°F) at Indira Gandhi International Airport and 44°C (111.2°F) at the city’s Safdarjung observatory. Image credit: Ramesh Sharma/India Today Group/Getty Images.


Figure 2.Departures from average in land-surface temperature across South and Southeast Asia for April 2016, as calculated from MODIS data (the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer aboard NASA’s Terra satellite). Some landscapes in Cambodia averaged more than 12°C (22°F) above normal for the month. Land-surface temperatures can vary significantly from air temperature. In this case, both air and land have been baking in relentless sunshine and record warmth. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.


Scorching in the Silicon Valley of India
One place where pre-monsoonal heat tends to be a bit less extreme is the highlands of southwest India’s Kerala state. The tech-oriented city of Bengaluru (Bangalore) is perched at near 900 meters (3000 feet), which helps keep a typical April day maxing out at no more than around 33°C (91°F). Yet on April 24, the city soared to 39.2°C (102.6°F), breaking the all-time record of 38.9°C for Bengaluru that extended all the way back to May 22, 1931. Schools in Kerala’s capital city of Thiruvananthapuram will be closed until at least May 20. In another Indian state, Bihar, the use of indoor cookstoves in rural areas has been banned between 9 am and 6 pm in response to heat- and drought-driven fires that burned 2500 houses and took 36 lives.

Some good news: outlook for the 2016 Indian monsoon
With El Niño now in its death throes, large-scale conditions are lining up favorably for above-average rains during the 2016 Indian monsoon. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), 71% of monsoon seasons that follow an El Niño produce near- or above-normal rainfall. The IMD’s initial outlook for the 2016 monsoon, issued on April 12, calls for 106% of long-term average rainfall for the nation as a whole, with a margin of error of plus or minus 5%. In probabilistic terms, the IMD is giving only 6% odds of below-average rains and a 64% chance of above-average rains.

Similar to the techniques used in many seasonal hurricane outlooks, the IMD employs a statistical forecast scheme for its April monsoon outlooks. The five variables are:

--SST gradient between North Atlantic and North Pacific (Dec + Jan)
--Equatorial South Indian Ocean SST (Feb)
--East Asia mean sea level pressure (Feb + Mar)
--Northwest Europe surface air temperature (Jan)
--Equatorial Pacific warm water volume (Feb + Mar)

Along with its statistical technique, the IMD is now collaborating with the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology and other agencies, including NOAA, on model-based monsoon prediction, using a research version of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS). This coupled dynamical system paints an even brighter picture for the 2016 monsoon, projecting that it will produce 111% of India’s long-term national rainfall average (again plus or minus 5%). IMD will issue an updated outlook in June, including region-by-region forecasts. The private firm Skymet is also calling for an above-average summer monsoon, with 105% of average rainfall (plus or minus 4%).


Figure 3. Some parts of southern and eastern India that average 20 to 50 mm of rain (0.8” to 2.0”) from March 1 to May 3 (center) have received little or no rain this year (left), helping temperatures to soar well beyond typical pre-monsoon levels. Image credit: India Meteorological Department.


After two disappointing monsoons, hopes are high
As long as destructive flooding can be minimized, a generous summer monsoon would be a boon to India after the tepid outcome of the last two summer monsoons: 88% of average in 2014 and 86% of average in 2015. Far southeast India has its own monsoon in autumn, which is often boosted by El Niño and tamped down by La Niña--the opposite of the typical effects of these phenomena on India’s summer monsoon. As El Niño surged in strength last autumn, record rainfall caused devastating floods in Chennai and other parts of South India.

Thanks go to international weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera for India heat statistics above. Herrera maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website.

Bob Henson



Figure 4. People wade through a flooded street in Chennai, in the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu, on Wednesday, December 2, 2015. Image credit: AP.

Extreme Weather El Niño La Niña

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thank You Mr. Henson; will also note that SSTs in the Bay of Bengal and Indian Ocean are also very warm as currently compared to the rest of the Oceans:


  Thanks for the Updates Mr. Henson...
Thank you Bob.
I know that India has a large populace but still, having 2500 folks die from a heatwave is tragic.

THANK YOU BOB!!!!!! Now if everyone can refrain from the "from the previous blog" comments...at least the arguing ones
So in India you either drown or swelter to death?

Doesn't seem fair.

Rain coming? Forecast is for .17 and that is up from less than a .10 yesterday, I got my Sandbag ready.....
You can read the news about India from a distance (and I have never been there) but a co-worker just came back from a 2 week vacation there a few weeks ago.  Once you are outside of the walls of your hotel, or out of the religious sanctuaries/shrines etc, people are living on top of each other (in the cities) and the very deep poverty level is apparent right in front of you.  Was also advised that primary "compulsory" education is not required; so you have tons of kids and teenagers who do not go to school/get educations and live on the streets. 

The heat wave issue (as we saw last year in India as well) is devastating because such huge numbers of the people rely on day labor (in the agriculture on construction sectors working "outside) just to feed themselves/families on a daily basis and missing a day of work can mean no food on the table.   
Quoting 7. PedleyCA:


Rain coming? Forecast is for .17 and that is up from less than a .10 yesterday, I got my Sandbag ready.....



California sandbags are multi-use!

this is why....
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv-l.jpg
no indication of impending doom but rather impending aridness....

Quoting 5. washingtonian115:


A very welcome new blog!
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 1h1 hour ago Lafayette, CA
Five best N Atlantic SST analogs to current SST pattern: 1986, 2014, 2015, 1994, 1989. Trop Atl colder in analogs.
Quoting 12. Gearsts:

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 1h1 hour ago Lafayette, CA
Five best N Atlantic SST analogs to current SST pattern: 1986, 2014, 2015, 1994, 1989. Trop Atl colder in analogs.
Man, well we're in the cold AMO phase now. But we still need to pay attention to the tropics regardless.
nice update
fire and heat will consume everything in time
Thanks for the new entry on the really crass weather in India and adjacent countries, Bob. As the shut down of schools in Kerala is mentioned: more is under way for India's capital:

Delhi schools ordered to close early for summer as temperatures soar
All schools in the Indian capital have been told to take 'mandatory summer vacation' as heatwave continues
Vidhi Doshi in Mumbai, The Guardian, Wednesday 4 May 2016 11.49 BST
All schools in Delhi have been ordered to take a "mandatory summer vacation" from 11 May amid a heatwave that has swept the city.
Officials say temperatures will continue to rise in the coming weeks, after reaching 44C (111F) on Monday – the hottest day of the year so far.
Schools in other parts of India have already been forced to close because of heatwaves and a drought that has affected 330 million people across India.
Delhi's state-run schools finish for the summer on 10 May anyway, but private and municipal schools’ term dates vary. Many schools' end-of-term tests will now need to be rescheduled. ...

Whole article see link above.

Meanwhile there is delightful spring weather in Germany with even summerly temperatures the next days. Nevertheless, yesterday a little weather related drama happened in Berlin, fortunately with happy end (video embedded in the article):



Tourist terror as iconic Berlin balloon thrashed by winds
The Local (Germany), Published: 04 May 2016 10:02 GMT+02:00
Sightseers in the German capital feared for their lives on Tuesday afternoon when the "Die Welt" balloon swayed out of control in strong winds.
The Die Welt newspaper's hot air balloon is an iconic part of the Berlin skyline. It floats up to a height of 150 metres from a site near Checkpoint Charlie in the centre of Berlin, while always staying moored to the ground, giving visitors a spectacular view of the city.
But on Tuesday 20 tourists got the fright of their lives when the balloon got caught in strong winds. Some of them had to lie on the floor for 20 minutes before they finally reached safety. ...

Whole article see link above.
Under severe t-storm warning :/
nice spin over lower lakes
popping afternoon showers

Quoting 10. 19N81W:

this is why....
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv-l.jpg
no indication of impending doom but rather impending aridness....


No one said it is impending doom but to show that there is a lot of e energy stored in the Caribbean this year.
it will need one hell of a well timed catalyst to release it in the current conditions....
Quoting 21. washingtonian115:

No one said it is impending doom but to show that there is a lot of e energy stored in the Caribbean this year.
lucky you guys......send some down here
Quoting 19. Grothar:


Quoting 17. JrWeathermanFL:

Under severe t-storm warning :/
yep its raining out

Welcome rain definitely beat the forecast today. Just about everyone got between 1.5 - 4". The grass was beginning to turn brown so the timing was perfect. How 'bout my bolts!
2016, the Year after the streets weeped in India from the Human induced Warming of the Globe from fossil fuel burning.



The unforeseen forcing's will be the focus Worldwide.


May the 4th be with you'





Keeping my fingers crossed that the afternoon doesn't turn as bad as it has the potential to...

Quoting 6. Dakster:

So in India you either drown or swelter to death?

Doesn't seem fair.


Pretty much the forecast for the entire world, if things remain the same.
Except I would change it to: Drown AND swelter to death.
The Fort McMurray AB Canada fire has destroyed or damaged about 1600 structures so far. The wildfire is expected to be worse today than yesterday. Alberta has been unusually hot and dry lately.
There many more than "a dozen" monthly records in the first days of May in India, there were several dozens indeed , including some absolute records (for any month).
Significant weather advisory for frequent to excessive
lightning... small hail... 45 to 55 mph winds and the development of
funnel clouds for northeastern Broward and southeastern Palm Beach
counties until 215 PM EDT...

* at 133 PM EDT... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a
strong thunderstorm with rotation... capable of producing a funnel
cloud over Pompano Beach or a waterspout just offshore of Pompano
Beach... moving north at 15 to 20 mph.

* In addition... frequent to excessive lightning... gusty winds from 45
to 55 mph... small hail... torrential downpours... or a combination of
these are possible. Lightning is the number one weather related
killer in Florida. Trees and open shelters offer no protection.
These winds can down small tree limbs and branches... and blow
around unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building
until the storm passes.

* Locations impacted include...
Pompano Beach... Boca Raton... Deerfield Beach... Boynton Beach... Delray
Beach... Lighthouse Point... Highland Beach... Ocean Ridge... Hillsboro
Beach... Gulf Stream... Briny Breezes... fau south Campus... Terra Mar and
Pompano Beach Airport.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm... and may lead
to street flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

Residents should remain on the alert for additional statements and
possible warnings.
http://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/weather/alberta /fort-mcmurray
34. bwi
Lot of heat from the equator to latitude 40 degrees or so both north and south. Only cooler spots in the northwest and north central pacific and the long-term ice sheet melt zones.

Quoting 33. 19N81W:

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/weather/albert a /fort-mcmurray



Fort McMurray wildfires witnessed in 10 terrifying tweets
36. bwi
Quoting 35. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



Fort McMurray wildfires witnessed in 10 terrifying tweets


Is it just me or is it sort of ironic to see a devastating early season fire in the Canadian tar sands production town?
And this:

Goodness.



This.



Pattern.



Sucks.

Afternoon all. Setting up for a big rain event in Nassau. Associated thunder from the dark clouds to my west are sending a clear signal...
Quoting 38. VAbeachhurricanes:

Goodness.



This.



Pattern.



Rocks.



FTFY.
Quoting 22. 19N81W:

it will need one hell of a well timed catalyst to release it in the current conditions....



Looks like you will by dry for a while. First rain we've seen in weeks.

Quoting 18. Grothar:


Rookie!
Quoting 39. BahaHurican:

Afternoon all. Setting up for a big rain event in Nassau. Associated thunder from the dark clouds to my west are sending a clear signal...


The lightning display we got early this morning from these storms was very impressive.
Quoting 44. Bucsboltsfan:



The lightning display we got early this morning from these storms was very impressive.
We're getting the rain now, but thunder has died down somewhat.
That cooler dry air behind the front passing through Florida is flying in behind as the jet continues to push the front out to sea:


Quoting 25. Bucsboltsfan:

Welcome rain definitely beat the forecast today. Just about everyone got between 1.5 - 4". The grass was beginning to turn brown so the timing was perfect. How 'bout my bolts!
Got home ice back! Bishop played w/ Stasney & Butler in HS, nice if he could play at home for the Cup (but not get it yet, Blues get monkey off their back, hopefully). Really classy for Hitch to bring up Ft. McMurray in post game interview last night. Upshall from there, several others played in WHL there & / or from Alberta. Hope winds shift back towards burnt areas or die down soon, but doesn't sound like it will today, anyway.

Well below avg in S C IL as cool Canadian air flows down. Were in the lower 60s earlier, now just 59 w/ a 44 dew pt., 29.8", N - NW wind 6-10 w/ mid 20 gusts.
Quoting 36. bwi:



Is it just me or is it sort of ironic to see a devastating early season fire in the Canadian tar sands production town?

Depends on your spiritual phylum. Mainly.
no its ironic

Quoting 48. cRRKampen:


Depends on your spiritual phylum. Mainly.
what is this showing us? I have some idea but I suspect you have more
Quoting 41. TropicalAnalystwx13:


FTFY.
This Saturday through early next week is setting up again to produce a slow moving system that dumps huge amounts of rain over areas already inundated . Will be severe weather associated but looking like rain, once again, will dominate the story.
Ya I am glad you guys got rain....
these fronts just havent been producing rains for us for many years, maybe a touch.
But to be honest its moving so fast if it even makes it this far south I doubt it will bring in any moisture to create anything.
Quoting 42. Grothar:



Looks like you will by dry for a while. First rain we've seen in weeks.


Quoting 50. 19N81W:

what is this showing us? I have some idea but I suspect you have more


Troughing over the East Coast. Translates to cooler and wetter weather compared to average.
Thi
Quoting 28. Neapolitan:





Keeping my fingers crossed that the afternoon doesn't turn as bad as it has the potential to...




Not necessarily looking good or those poor people. People in the north side of town (across the river) have been advised to "shelter in place" (4hrs ago). Not sure they'll be able to do that, if MODIS is accurate at such a fine scale.



Map showing heat detected on the Fort McMurray fire. The most current heat (some of the red dots) on the map detected at 2:20 a.m. May 4, 2016.

From: http://wildfiretoday.com/
My 86 year old Mother lives in Miami and I just got her a cell phone about a month ago (her first); she just called me on the cell (from the house) a few minutes ago to let me know it had been rainy and windy there most of the day and showing off how she has finally learned to hit the "send" button after she dials the number(she thought the phone was broken a few weeks ago and I had to talk her through the send button thing again after we covered that in person when I got it for her) ................................. :)
Quoting 26. Patrap:

2016, the Year after the streets weeped in India from the Human induced Warming of the Globe from fossil fuel burning.



The unforeseen forcing's will be the focus Worldwide.




Oh good lord
That pic of the melted street in India is from last year though....
Quoting 53. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Troughing over the East Coast. Translates to cooler and wetter weather compared to average.
I was thinking hurricane tracks into the NE CONUS ....
And a current map of the situation in Fort McMurray

Published on May 3, 2016
Raw video from Global News crews on the ground in Fort McMurray, Alberta as a Super 8 hotel burns and the aftermath of a burnt gas station. For more info, please go to http://www.globalnews.ca





To the pros on the site - and please redirect me if there is a better place to ask this - but I am looking for recommendations for a PWS to track the tropical weather here in south Florida.  Seems the choice is between Davis Vantage Pro2 and Ambient WS-1001.  Again, if this is not the place to ask this, I would appreciate a link or resource.  Thank you.
Published on May 3, 2016
The wildfire situation in Fort McMurray escalated Tuesday afternoon. The fire was within metres of Highway 63. Fletcher Kent has the latest from Fort McMurray as of 3:39 p.m. MT For more info, please go to http://www.globalnews.ca





Quoting 57. washingtonian115:

That pic of the melted street in India is from last year though....
That's what he said .... lol .... how r you? Hopefully you got the rain without the hail etc that George was mentioning last blog....
Quoting 36. bwi:



Is it just me or is it sort of ironic to see a devastating early season fire in the Canadian tar sands production town?
nature takes back what has been taken it will be rebuilt bigger then ever all of it maybe who knows

its not the last
fire season is just beginning
Quoting 66. BahaHurican:

That's what he said .... lol .... how r you? Hopefully you got the rain without the hail etc that George was mentioning last blog....
I'm doing good.I'am currently down in FL so I did not witness the severe weather event first hand that the D.C area had on Monday.Today we did not get to enjoy much thanks to the rain,so the kids went to the indoor pool instead.My allergies have actually improved while down here compared to when we were up north (it was a disaster).The D.C area needed rain though due to the dry March and much of April (2012 was not friendly).I'm sure my garden has been celebrating while we are away.
Anyone care to comment on my Post 61? Thanks.
Quoting 68. washingtonian115:

I'm doing good.I'am currently down in FL so I did not witness the severe weather event first hand that the D.C area had on Monday.Today we did not get to enjoy much thanks to the rain,so the kids went to the indoor pool instead.My allergies have actually improved while down here compared to when we were up north (it was a disaster).The D.C area needed rain though due to the dry March and much of April (2012 was not friendly).I'm sure my garden has been celebrating while we are away.


I went from dry to sodden in a week. 2.5" of rain in about 90 minutes Monday night. Took a walk at lunch today and some of the local vegetation is devastated. Wild raspberries (which I like) are 50% defoliated. A lot of the
trees look ragged in addition to the ones that froze last month and are just leafing out with second buds.

I am tracking pawpaws along this trail and in the woods I walk the dogs in. They were relatively unharmed by both events except for some leaf damage from the hail.

I need to get my garden finished by next wednesday when I leave for annual fishing trip but my soil is sodden, the tomato plants are broken and crushed and cool weather is delaying things. May just leave the transplants in containers and have the family water them. It is likely the tomatoes will recover, initial damage almost always looks worse than what it turns out to be. Lots of work to do around the house too; fortunately none of it storm damage repair.
Quoting 41. TropicalAnalystwx13:


FTFY.


You would like chilly, cloudy, and rainy.
Lasting effects of this Super El Nino really felt around the globe. Prayers to those in India and Canada.
Quoting 61. westpalmer:

To the pros on the site - and please redirect me if there is a better place to ask this - but I am looking for recommendations for a PWS to track the tropical weather here in south Florida. Seems the choice is between Davis Vantage Pro2 and Ambient WS-1001. Again, if this is not the place to ask this, I would appreciate a link or resource. Thank you.



Contact aquak9 on WU mail... she sell weather equipment

I know nothing about that stuff
Quoting 56. LouisPasteur:



Oh good lord

Yes?

Quoting 73. VR46L:



Contact aquak9 on WU mail... she sell weather equipment

I know nothing nothing about that stuff

Thanks.

Quoting 67. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

nature takes back what has been taken it will be rebuilt bigger then ever all of it maybe who knows

its not the last
fire season is just beginning


Yep.. Fire just santizes the area for reclamation later by nature. (Not saying I am for the fire taking everything away from people)
Quoting 61. westpalmer:

To the pros on the site - and please redirect me if there is a better place to ask this - but I am looking for recommendations for a PWS to track the tropical weather here in south Florida.  Seems the choice is between Davis Vantage Pro2 and Ambient WS-1001.  Again, if this is not the place to ask this, I would appreciate a link or resource.  Thank you.



Hard to go wrong with a Davis. As long as you have a good spot to mount, it should serve you well.
Get the Pro-2.

Buy it from someone who has GOOD reviews. Do not decide who to buy it from, by price. Buy it from someone with good customer service, and good reviews.
Quoting 61. westpalmer:
To the pros on the site - and please redirect me if there is a better place to ask this - but I am looking for recommendations for a PWS to track the tropical weather here in south Florida.  Seems the choice is between Davis Vantage Pro2 and Ambient WS-1001.  Again, if this is not the place to ask this, I would appreciate a link or resource.  Thank you.
There's also a site called weather forum where a lotta folks talk about equipment. But read reviews on both products. Still I recommend the Davis.
Quoting 52. 19N81W:

Ya I am glad you guys got rain....
these fronts just havent been producing rains for us for many years, maybe a touch.
But to be honest its moving so fast if it even makes it this far south I doubt it will bring in any moisture to create anything.



Oh for goodness sake your such a downcaster your just about worse than Eeor that sad and miserable donkey from Kids show

The front is expected to come over us and become stationary on our S side
We are expected to get a good bit of rain and thunderstorms it may get a bit heavy at times
Expected to be our first good rainfall too

Don't know what's gotten into you maybe the unusual lack of rainfall and lack of proper tropical system impacting us over last few years
heavy -duty storms headed towards the keys from the west
Fort McMurray airport webcam looking toward the west. First image is from a few hours ago:



This second image is a few minutes old:



Notice that winds are from the SW at 15kt gusting to 21. Fort McMurray sits NE of the bulk of the fire.
Spell my name correctly, it is Eeyore..

Mesonet is showing 7.60" of rain today at Lakewood Ranch which is just east of Sarasota Fl.
Quoting 84. Sfloridacat5:

Mesonet is showing 7.60" of rain today at Lakewood Ranch which is just east of Sarasota Fl.


Got 4" here in Palm Harbor. This one beat the forecast.
Special air quality statement in effect for:
•Lac La Biche Co. near Crow Lake Prov. Park
•Lac La Biche Co. near Wiau Winefred and Grist Lakes
•R.M. of Wood Buffalo near Fort MacKay and Wallace Creek
•R.M. of Wood Buffalo near Fort McMurray and Anzac
•R.M. of Wood Buffalo near Gipsy Lake and Whitemud Falls
•R.M. of Wood Buffalo near Grand Rapids Wildland Prov. Park
•R.M. of Wood Buffalo near Janvier South and Conklin
•R.M. of Wood Buffalo near Mariana Lake
•R.M. of Wood Buffalo near Stony Mtn Prov. Park and Engstrom Lake

Smoke from a wildfire in the vicinity of Fort McMurray is producing poor air quality and reduced visibilities in some areas. Smoke near the ground is causing very high health risk conditions.

The hot weather will end tonight as a cold front moves through, however windy and dry conditions will continue on Thursday. High levels of particulate matter may persist locally until the fire is extinguished or controlled.

Individuals may experience symptoms such as increased coughing, throat irritation, headaches or shortness of breath. Children, seniors, and those with cardiovascular or lung disease, such as asthma, are especially at risk.

People with lung diseases, such as asthma and COPD, can be particularly sensitive to air pollution. They will generally experience more serious health effects at lower levels. Pollution can aggravate their diseases, leading to increased medication use, doctor and emergency room visits, and hospital visits.

Be air aware! Check your local weather forecasts and alerts so you know when to take extra care.

Visit www.airhealth.ca for information on how to reduce your health risk and your personal contribution to pollution levels, as well as for current and forecast AQHI values.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada

Issued by Environment Canada, Alberta Environment and Parks, Alberta Health

Fort McMurray Airport

Date:

4:00 PM MDT Wednesday 4 May 2016




Condition:

Mostly Cloudy

Pressure:

29.6 inches

Visibility:

10 miles

Temperature:

85.3°F

Dewpoint:

32.7°F

Humidity:

15%

Wind:

WSW 16 gust 26 mph
Special weather statement in effect for:
•Lac La Biche Co. near Crow Lake Prov. Park
•Lac La Biche Co. near Wiau Winefred and Grist Lakes
•R.M. of Wood Buffalo near Fort MacKay and Wallace Creek
•R.M. of Wood Buffalo near Fort McMurray and Anzac
•R.M. of Wood Buffalo near Gipsy Lake and Whitemud Falls
•R.M. of Wood Buffalo near Grand Rapids Wildland Prov. Park
•R.M. of Wood Buffalo near Janvier South and Conklin
•R.M. of Wood Buffalo near Mariana Lake
•R.M. of Wood Buffalo near Stony Mtn Prov. Park and Engstrom Lake

Above normal temperatures continue in eastern and southern Alberta today. A cold front moving through the province tonight will put an end to the hot temperatures.

These conditions pose a health risk when you are not used to the heat.

Everyone is at risk from heat, especially older adults; infants and young children; and people with chronic illnesses.

You are advised to (1) drink plenty of cool liquids before feeling thirsty; and (2) keep cool by dressing for the weather and spending a few hours each day in a cool place.

Issued by Environment Canada in collaboration with Alberta Health.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to storm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ABStorm.
just had a nightmare on 3rd floor hallway full of smoke smoke seen exiting window of undisclosed unit no one home left pot on burner at high
busted down the door turned off stove heat opened everything to vent out smoke close one
For West Palm Beach...Lows in the 50's for the next couple of mornings. Wuv it!!

I'm hearing that South Florida has a high fire danger warning for tomorrow. Something about humidity being in the 20% range. That seems awful low for South Florida.

Hey - Keep, Canada have the equivalent of a national guard they can send to Ft. McMurray for help with this?
Quoting 92. Dakster:

I'm hearing that South Florida has a high fire danger warning for tomorrow. Something about humidity being in the 20% range. That seems awful low for South Florida.

Hey - Keep, Canada have the equivalent of a national guard they can send to Ft. McMurray for help with this?


Surprised to hear that, It does seem aweful low. Plus, they got a lot of rain today so the ground isn't dried out.
I talked to several people in South Florida. They were expecting to see fish swimming in their front yard... But apparently it's one heck of a cold front coming down.

Hopefully it lessens the chance of a lightning started everglades fire... Those are tough to put out as they are usually is not areas that are easy to get to and the muck underground has been known to burn too.
Hi folks ! I finally overcame this hard disk failure, it feels good to be back on WU.
Brutal heat intensifies also across the northern hemisphere as a whole: here's what I found on artic-news.blogspot.fr (ok, that's kind of a doomer's website, always ringing the alarm bell, but at that point, when good science virtually always seem to back their claim, I don't know how it's possible to understand the data in a more positive way

And now I also feel reassured that I wasn't going nuts when I, along with many others, was pointing at the extremely high temperature means across the northern polar region all winter long. Nice contrast between the two poles, by the way.
Oh my, what a crazy ride...
Quoting 94. Dakster:

I talked to several people in South Florida. They were expecting to see fish swimming in their front yard... But apparently it's one heck of a cold front coming down.

Hopefully it lessens the chance of a lightning started everglades fire... Those are tough to put out as they are usually is not areas that are easy to get to and the muck underground has been known to burn too.


It's amazing to see how fronts intensify when they move past Tampa like they have been this winter and spring season. Tampa shield hold strong, I guess.

The Fort McMurray Fire is right next to the city's airport as evacuations continue. Here is a webcam link, as long as it stays up of course:

Link 1

Link
Quoting 90. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

busted down the door turned off stove heat opened everything to vent out smoke close one


Glad you got to it before it took the building down.
Prof.J. Ray Bates, Meteorology and Climate Centre,
School of Mathematics and Statistics,
University College Dublin, Ireland.

Is this guy pro or anti-climate change?
Yay!!!

It's now pouring rain
Here
NAO is currently slightly positive but it is forecast to go negative again. I know -NAO typically enhances MDR warming, but does it actually make a more favorable environment for Atlantic storms to develop?

102. MahFL
Quoting 3. JNFlori30A:

Thank you Bob.
I know that India has a large populace but still, having 2500 folks die from a heatwave is tragic.




The rate of death was much higher in the French heatwave of 2003 where 14,000 died in a population of only 66 million ( India has a population of 1.27 Billion ), and France is supposedly a first world nation.
103. MahFL
Quoting 57. washingtonian115:

That pic of the melted street in India is from last year though....


Yer some people like to equate melted streets with global warming, I saw melted streets in 1977 in the UK in a regular old heatwave.
Quoting 38. VAbeachhurricanes:

Goodness.



This.



Pattern.



Sucks.




It's not good to look beyond 7 days unless there's a consensus, and there hasn't been. My guess is we go progressive for awhile.
Quoting 101. HurricaneFan:

NAO is currently slightly positive but it is forecast to go negative again. I know -NAO typically enhances MDR warming, but does it actually make a more favorable environment for Atlantic storms to develop?




The NAO is overrated on this blog. It's literally just a pressure index comprising a small spatial area of the Atlantic. A negative NAO helps with warming, but I'm convinced the positive phase is more conducive to landfalls for what that's actually worth. No idea where people got it in their heads that a flat and weak western Atlantic ridge in a -NAO was the better of the two for hurricane strikes to the US mainland.
Quoting 68. washingtonian115:

I'm doing good.I'am currently down in FL so I did not witness the severe weather event first hand that the D.C area had on Monday.Today we did not get to enjoy much thanks to the rain,so the kids went to the indoor pool instead.My allergies have actually improved while down here compared to when we were up north (it was a disaster).The D.C area needed rain though due to the dry March and much of April (2012 was not friendly).I'm sure my garden has been celebrating while we are away.
Pity you got a rain day, but at least the kids still enjoyed themselves... I know how the pollen and dust can combine in April.. love the dogwood and cherry blossoms, but they sure can add to allergy miseries.
Part of the relief you are experiencing may be because the worst of the seasonal allergens in Florida manifest in March. Last month here was pretty bad, so I'll bet it was bad in Florida too. By April all the blossoms are tiny fruit ...

Quoting 57. washingtonian115:

That pic of the melted street in India is from last year though....


Quoting 103. MahFL:

Yer some people like to equate melted streets with global warming, I saw melted streets in 1977 in the UK in a regular old heatwave.


U can say my handle, as it matters not to me, as I wont burst into flames.

It says in the post the image is from last year.

So please, we strive for accuracy here.

Science too.

Quoting 26. Patrap:

2016, the Year after the streets weeped in India from the Human induced Warming of the Globe from fossil fuel burning.



The unforeseen forcing's will be the focus Worldwide.


Quoting 105. KoritheMan:



The NAO is overrated on this blog. It's literally just a pressure index comprising a small spatial area of the Atlantic. A negative NAO helps with warming, but I'm convinced the positive phase is more conducive to landfalls for what that's actually worth. No idea where people got it in their heads that a flat and weak western Atlantic ridge in a -NAO was the better of the two for hurricane strikes to the US mainland.
You need a cyclone.
Quoting 108. Gearsts:

You need a cyclone.


Am I that obvious? :]
As 19-year-old resident Cassie White fled, she saw the gas station explode. “It almost looks like a zombie apocalypse,” she told The Globe and Mail. “At the time, I didn’t know if I was going to make it out … I felt like I was in a vacuum bag and all the air was being sucked out.”

While homes burn, the fire has left the nearby Athabasca oil sands unscathed. That could change; Fort McMurray Fire Chief Darby Allen called the fire a “moving animal.”


Link
Quoting 99. trunkmonkey:

Prof.J. Ray Bates, Meteorology and Climate Centre,
School of Mathematics and Statistics,
University College Dublin, Ireland.

Is this guy pro or anti-climate change?

Just google "Ray bates Ireland" and you'll find out pretty quickly (he's anti- action on climate change). Or here's a place to start:

http://www.thinkorswim.ie/challenging-irelands-cl imate-contrarian-in-chief/
The Fires of Climate Change are Burning the Himalayas

It’s the highest mountain range in the world. Featuring peaks that scrape the sky, dwindling glaciers, and lush forests, these gentle giants are essential to the prosperity and stability of one of Asia’s greatest lands. For rainwater and glacial melt flowing out of the Himalayas feeds the rivers that are the very life-blood of India and her 1.25 billion people.


Link

Look at the smoke from the fires in the Himalayas.
Link
Quoting 69. westpalmer:

Anyone care to comment on my Post 61? Thanks.

There's also a relevant WU page: PWSmet - https://www.wunderground.com/blog/PWSmet/pws-owner -appreciation-week

And you might want to trundle right on over there because it looks like they're giving away a weather station this week.
Good consensus for Agatha next week.


Hi everyone. Almost blogging time again :-)

Boy I sure hope this front keeps sliding this way. Humidity levels in the mid 60s for the NW Caribbean nearly every day now. Unheard of and bone dry for over two months.


Quoting 115. kmanislander:

Hi everyone. Almost blogging time again :-)

Boy I sure hope this front keeps sliding this way. Humidity levels in the mid 60s for the NW Caribbean nearly every day now. Unheard of and bone dry for over two months now.





I think it probably will. I would definitely add an enhanced risk for precipitation across the northwestern Caribbean during the next few days. Looks like one more deep longwave for the eastern US (aka, what's heading your way) before we switch to a more normal pattern. I'm also expecting a heat ridge to form over the eastern US similar to last year by the end of the month, in line with the likely rapidly-initiating La Nina.
Quoting 116. KoritheMan:



I think it probably will. I would definitely add an enhanced risk for precipitation across the northwestern Caribbean during the next few days. Looks like one more deep longwave for the eastern US (aka, what's heading your way) before we switch to a more normal pattern. I'm also expecting a heat ridge to form over the eastern US similar to last year by the end of the month, in line with the likely rapidly-initiating La Nina.


We need it badly. Hardly a cloud around week after week. Temps around 90 every day so lots of hot water developing in the NW Caribbean which is typical this time of year.
Quoting 117. Patrap:



Looking promising. Fingers crossed.
Quoting 118. kmanislander:



We need it badly. Hardly a cloud around week after week. Temps around 90 every day so lots of hot water developing in the NW Caribbean which is typical this time of year.


I'm also expecting the most active Caribbean hurricane season since 2010, which was not coincidentally also the last big La Nina year. I dunno if we'll get quite that level of activity since this year might be cold AMO, but I would expect at least a hurricane or two; possibly even a long-tracked east-to-west traveler that doesn't struggle. If the Caribbean is the hotbed for Nino-induced shear (and it is; it's by far the area closest to the equatorial warming wrought by those events), it will logically be the hotbed for Nina-reduced shear. I don't just make stuff up. :P
Quoting 117. Patrap:




Clear skies Pat!!
123. SLU
Quoting 122. Gearsts:


Quoting 120. KoritheMan:



I'm also expecting the most active Caribbean hurricane season since 2010, which was not coincidentally also the last big La Nina year. I dunno if we'll get quite that level of activity since this year might be cold AMO, but I would expect at least a hurricane or two; possibly even a long-tracked east-to-west traveler that doesn't struggle. If the Caribbean is the hotbed for Nino-induced shear (and it is; it's by far the area closest to the equatorial warming wrought by those events), it will logically be the hotbed for Nina-reduced shear. I don't just make stuff up. :P


Yeah there might be a greater than usual risk of that type of storm this year
Quoting 108. Gearsts:

You need a cyclone.


So do I :)
125. SLU
Quoting 122. Gearsts:




Hard to believe the Caribbean used to produce that kind of activity after the lackluster 3 years in a row we just went through.

Quoting 113. FLwolverine:

There's also a relevant WU page: PWSmet - https://www.wunderground.com/blog/PWSmet/pws-owner -appreciation-week

And you might want to trundle right on over there because it looks like they're giving away a weather station this week.


Thanks.  That was some good information and I entered to win. Who knows?
Quoting 125. SLU:



Hard to believe the Caribbean used to produce that kind of activity after the lackluster 3 years in a row we just went through.


The pseudo El Nino's since 2012 are likely to blame for that.
128. SLU
Quoting 127. KoritheMan:



The pseudo El Nino's since 2012 are likely to blame for that.


Yup. This year instability seems to have rebounded for the first time in eons and the windshear should be low with La Nina. Throw into the mix the warm MDR and we should at least have a couple high ACE long-trackers to follow this season.
I don't know if this has been discussed here but apparently Panasonic is working on a global model that utilizes airplane and PWS data. They claim to be on par with ECMWF. Regardless of if the model can preform to that level I think it is great that the private weather sector is interested in making global models to this capacity. Allows more flexible testing with data and methodology. Link
131. 882MB
We just had our first wild fire of the season... Luckily it only took out 15 acres and was put out quick. A pilot spotted it and called it in. Not a good feeling about this upcoming fire season.

Link

http://www.adn.com/article/20160504/emergency-cre ws-respond-wildfire-burns-near-meadow-lakes
The quote below is from "theweathernetwork.com":
The utube video, which can be googled is profound...



Just Curious - Indeed, I'll likely take flak from the FFI-sponsored propagandist trolls for even suggesting that wildfires are worse because of global warming, and increasingly catastrophic changes in climate that it causes. But this is not my opinion, nor is it some fiction I made up that I am trying to fool you with. Indeed, the scientific facts are clear regarding AGW and the increase in wildfire severity and extent. But as usual, I'm just a messenger. Listen to Colorado firefighter Don Whittemore. He has battled wildfires for several decades. Don't listen to any of these trolls that deny climate change. 'Firefighters Battle the Infernos of Climate Change' https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FmbU36f4ios
8 hours ago


Fort McMurray, Alberta

Almanac for Yesterday
Actual Average * Record
Temperature
High 89 °F 52 °F 77 °F (2006)
Low 45 °F 28 °F 17 °F (2002)

Link
Quoting 132. Dakster:

We just had our first wild fire of the season... Luckily it only took out 15 acres and was put out quick. A pilot spotted it and called it in. Not a good feeling about this upcoming fire season.

Link



From Scribbler's site ;

Andy in SD / May 5, 2016

I’ve been looking at Lake Balkal through the spring to see when the ice clears and if the fires perhaps continued underground.

Not sure if they were underground, but there is still ice on the lake, and you can see a fire blooming to the lower right on this shot.

Yup, it starting there again too.


Link

Climate change is corroding our values, says Naomi Klein

Climate change is spawning injustice, racism, intolerance and wars, according to author and political activist Naomi Klein.

“It is not about things getting hotter and wetter but things getting meaner and uglier, unless we change the corrosive values that are pitting people against each other,” she said in a lecture held in memory of Palestinian literary critic and political activist Edward Said at the Royal Festival Hall in London’s Southbank Centre on Wednesday.

“Fossil fuels, which are the principal driver of climate change, require the sacrifice of whole regions and people. Sacrificial zones like the Niger delta and the tar sands in Alberta, Canada, dot the world.

“These zones require the shredding of treaties that enable peoples to live on their land. Indigenous rights are meaningless when the land is being [destroyed] and the rivers are polluted. Resource extraction is a form of violence because it does so much damage and kills cultures,” she said.


Link
Quoting 109. KoritheMan:



Am I that obvious? :]
Always.
:-)
Quoting 137. BahaHurican:

Always.
:-)


Ha! Better to make my intentions known early than beat around the bush and have heartbreak later. :)
Quoting 115. kmanislander:

Hi everyone. Almost blogging time again :-)

Boy I sure hope this front keeps sliding this way. Humidity levels in the mid 60s for the NW Caribbean nearly every day now. Unheard of and bone dry for over two months.



We got a heavy downpour around midnight, but it's pretty clear now. System seems to be moving pretty fast, so you may get some rain from it before it dries up .....
Good to see you in the blog.
Quoting 138. KoritheMan:



Ha! Better to make my intentions known early than beat around the bush and have heartbreak later. :)
Ture, as Taz would say... lol... I'm certainly not wishing for any landfalling 'canes, but I don't think we'll have a choice about it this year.
More than half the corals of the far north Great Barrier Reef dead: official


Russell Reichelt, the reef's Marine Park Authority chairman, told Senate estimates on Thursday that the region of the reef north of Lizard Island had been the worst hit, with "severe bleaching", although the event as a whole was "very widespread".

There is a "very high mortality in the far northern section" and was likely to be above 50 per cent of corals, Dr Reichelt said. The area was known as being relatively pristine.

Dr Reichelt noted that two of the big three bleaching events had occurred during an El Nino, such as this year, but climate change was "by far the biggest signal".


Read more: Link




Looks like the next round is almost here, and I hear thunder rolling in the distance. Hope the weather isn't too bad for the early morning commute.
Oil Sands Fire Forcing 80,000 Canadians From Homes Set to Expand

The fire will probably grow to about 100 square kilometers (40 square miles), from around 80 now, Chad Morrison, a wildfire official, said Wednesday. .................................... The wildfire is the latest blow to a province already grappling with the economic toll of a two-year oil price slump in one of the world’s most expensive places to extract crude. More than 40,000 energy jobs have been lost in Canada since the price crash began in 2014. Some 250 firefighters, 10 helicopters and 17 air tankers have been deployed to fight the blazes around Fort McMurray, about 700 kilometers northeast of Calgary.

Link
From ABC Far North Queensland

Australia has just witnessed its quietest cyclone season since satellite tracking started in 1970. Just three named cyclones formed in the Australian Tropical Basin and none of them were severe. Associate Professor Kevin Walsh from the University of Melbourne says he was surprised by how quiet the season was.
Quoting 112. RobertWC:

The Fires of Climate Change are Burning the Himalayas

It’s the highest mountain range in the world. Featuring peaks that scrape the sky, dwindling glaciers, and lush forests, these gentle giants are essential to the prosperity and stability of one of Asia’s greatest lands. For rainwater and glacial melt flowing out of the Himalayas feeds the rivers that are the very life-blood of India and her 1.25 billion people.


Link

Look at the smoke from the fires in the Himalayas.
Link

Wow. That is a big, completely unseen event, too.

Getting the worst of it over Nassau right now.
Quoting 103. MahFL:



Yer some people like to equate melted streets with global warming, I saw melted streets in 1977 in the UK in a regular old heatwave.

So that is why we look at actual temp measurements. Once that has been done, it is clear the Indian street melting was climate change, and the UK heatwave of '77 (more likely 1976, though) was less that.
Quoting 49. 19N81W:

no its ironic



It isn't really. The causal chain in this one isn't that long at all.
149. MahFL
Quoting 143. RobertWC:

Oil Sands Fire Forcing 80,000 Canadians From Homes Set to Expand


Misleading headline ? Forgive me if I am wrong but the Oil Sands are not actually on fire are they ? it's a wildfire, correct ?
Quoting 149. MahFL:



Misleading headline ? Forgive me if I am wrong but the Oil Sands are not actually on fire are they ? it's a wildfire, correct ?
They are thinking of the town as the "oil sands " town and extending the property to the fire. I.e. a figurative rather than literal use designed to make the headline more dramatic.
151. MahFL
Quoting 147. cRRKampen:


So that is why we look at actual temp measurements. Once that has been done, it is clear the Indian street melting was climate change, and the UK heatwave of '77 (more likely 1976, though) was less that.


Yes it was 1976, they appointed a drought minister and a few days later it poured with rain lol. September and October were very wet months, and that pretty much ended the drought. I was only 13 at the time but the wx was noticeably dry and warm for weeks it seemed ( we had our 6 week summer break from school ). Normally you'd get a few warm days then cooler wet weather then back to warm.
Quoting 148. cRRKampen:


It isn't really. The causal chain in this one isn't that long at all.
Still ironic in a dramatic kind of way.
much needed rainfall in latin america associated with the cold front
Quoting 149. MahFL:



Misleading headline ? Forgive me if I am wrong but the Oil Sands are not actually on fire are they ? it's a wildfire, correct ?
Yes, it's a wildland fire. The fire is centered around--and threatening--the city (well, technically, the "urban service area") of Ft. McMurray, a place which exists nowadays solely for the purpose of supporting the massive oil sand mining operations in the area. Have a look at the map below; you'll see that both Ft. Mac and the blaze are in the oil sands. Hence the entirely correct term "oil sands fire"

colorado bob sees every disaster. strong trough settling in over the nw carib. keep an eye on it
Another frightening dashcam video from a vehicle fleeing Ft. McMurray. The, er, "fun" really starts about a minute in. NOTE FOR THOSE WITH SENSITIVE EARS: the driver utters a few expletives, so turn down the volume before playing:

Quoting 156. Neapolitan:

Another frightening dashcam video from a vehicle fleeing Ft. McMurray. The, er, "fun" really starts about a minute in. NOTE FOR THOSE WITH SENSITIVE EARS: the driver utters a few expletives, so turn down the volume before playing:




Some of these videos are to the point where if I saw them in a movie I'd be like, "Well you don't have to be so obvious its fake."
Good Morning. Beautiful morning in North Florida with clear skies and temps around 55 earlier this morning; nice cool down after some pretty hot days last week: the front really cooled things down and it looks like it went through the Bahamas overnight and about to exit their parts.





Luckily for me, the worst of the line passed through here before I was ready for work. We did have about an hour of dramatic thunder, lightning and rain with the passage. At the moment, it's overcast and windy, but it looks like the rain is done.

I hope WCar can get some of this; that hour was enough to produce enough rain to flood low lying areas in town...
The Central American monsoon (which is the birth place of many e-pac storms) is in full bloom but it does not look like much rain (if any) is going to make it from this front down to Hispanola, Jamaica, and the Lesser Antilles; they may have to wait a few months until the African waves start to make it over to them for significant rainfall:

And here is the current Conus forecast and look: nice example today of how the Conus jet curves around the cut-off lows (particularly the one off the Coast of California and the one moving down towards Tennessee this morning)




Here are the general locations per CIMMS of the two big upper level lows over/near the US:


Quoting 156. Neapolitan:

Another frightening dashcam video from a vehicle fleeing Ft. McMurray. ...

What a nightmare!

NASA Earth Observatory got a satellite pic from two days ago as their picture of the day:
a href="http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.p hp?id=87985" Wildfire in Fort McMurray
May 5, 2016

Here's the Climate Context For the Fort McMurray Wildfire
Climate Central, Published: May 4th, 2016

Concerning India:
Why are so many fires raging across India?
Blame the heatwave, aridity and human carelessness, Experts say that the heat and drought has made it easier for fires to spread through villages and forests through the smallest of sparks.
9 hours ago, Updated 4 hours ago, by Mayank Jain, Nayantara Narayan
The summer has barely begun but incidents of fire in the forests of North India's hill states, and in several urban and rural areas have registered a sharp rise. For instance, data by the Ministry of Environment shows that the number of forest fires recorded in the first four months of this year have surpassed the tally of such fires in the previous three years.
In Delhi, the fire department registered a 500% rise in the number of fire-related calls in April compared to the same period last year. One of the fires reported included the one that destroyed the National Museum of Natural History on April 26. ...



Source and whole article see link above.
NASA Researchers Improve Hazardous Weather Forecasts
NASA’s Langley Research Center, May 2, 2016
Forecasts play key roles in many people’s lives, from planning picnics at the park, to cancelling flights and avoiding weather-related tragedies. Because weather can be a life-or-death matter, researchers work hard to develop new technology and ways to provide earlier and more accurate forecasts.
Scientists and engineers at NASA's Langley Research Center in Hampton, Virginia, are combining satellite images with novel algorithms to monitor hazardous thunderstorms. With this method, they can identify where severe winds, hail or tornadoes are more likely to occur within storm clouds. ...


Article about this:
Cauliflower cloudtops scanned from space reveal risky storms
Scott Sutherland, Meteorologist/Science Writer, Wednesday, May 4, 2016, 10:11
NASA researchers have just given severe weather forecasters a powerful new tool in the detection of hazardous storm conditions on the ground, by focusing their attention on the storms' loftiest heights.
NASA has already been gaining new insights into storms by scanning the rain content of clouds from space, but a new line of research is showing how the tops of clouds could reveal important details about what's going on underneath them.
Kristopher Bedka, a physical scientist at NASA's Langley Research Center, is leading a team that has developed a new method for computers to scan thousands of square kilometres of imagery from orbiting weather satellites in under two minutes, to pick out an indicator of extreme weather known as overshooting tops. ...
hard to believe that front went by us and barely any rain...I think some districts had a bit but it just doesnt want to rain here....we just dont have the land mass to create it..other regions are prospering however so good for them....there is some stuff building now as the sun has come up but its all moving swiftly to the nw in lee of the sw flow...so sadly it will rain over the ocean...ho hum maybe in June
ya I saw that this morning...its amazing how it just seems to clear a path of convection near caymans but over cuba and central america its intense....we are sort of in a dead zone out here in the middle of the Caribbean...nothing to stimulate vertical development...
Quoting 153. islander101010:

much needed rainfall in latin america associated with the cold front
anyway you swing it its ironic.....I do feel for them dont get me wrong...many have stretched themselves very thin up there to mortgage those homes....in what is already a depressed industry they didnt need this.
Quoting 148. cRRKampen:


It isn't really. The causal chain in this one isn't that long at all.
168. MahFL
Quoting 156. Neapolitan:

Another frightening dashcam video from a vehicle fleeing Ft. McMurray.


One gets the impression the evac order was a little late ?
Here is the weekly US drought monitor issued this morning;
Current U.S. Drought Monitor
Quoting 158. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning. Beautiful morning in North Florida with clear skies and temps around 55 earlier this morning; nice cool down after some pretty hot days last week: the front really cooled things down and it looks like it went through the Bahamas overnight and about to exit their parts.






Yes, it was beautiful outside this morning, sucks I had to go to work! Looks like we'll have a couple more cool mornings before it starts to warm up over the weekend and then some rain early next week.
Quoting 168. MahFL:



One gets the impression the evac order was a little late ?


well it was an order first of its kind for such a large dev area
winds changed dramatic direction in short space causing the fire to catch them unprepared fire was moving 5 kmh and jumping quickly a crown fire down
this is but the first of many more even larger dev areas that will see the same results from quick changing no response possible conditions but get out of the way scenario's
faster faster
Pretty astonishing CCTV footage right here as well, not sure how to save it as a .gif, maybe someone else can preserve this in some form?

Last 24 hours in a timelapse video from the Fort McMurray Airport
Quoting 173. skycycle:

Pretty astonishing CCTV footage right here as well, not sure how to save it as a .gif, maybe someone else can preserve this in some form?

Last 24 hours in a timelapse video from the Fort McMurray Airport


Never mind, it's already online.
Germany is today on the bright side of life: holiday (feast of Ascension, combined with secular boozy Father's Day) and absolute gorgeous weather due to high Peter. 10 minutes in my roof garden, and this was more than enough sun for my pale winter skin, lol.


Source live webcam at the weather station in Koblenz on Rhine.

Here another live webcam in this region (Linz - Remagen) showing the ferry boat with today's excursionists.



Have a nice day, everyone else. And thoughts to the people in the regions haunted by wild fires.
largest fire ever great black dragon fire over 18 million hectares razed across china and Russia
2 mornings in a row with lows in the mid 50s in SE TX. This should be the last time we see this....till October. Summer heat knocking down the door.

Most of April was a very humid, summer like feel with dewpoints in the 70s and morning lows in the 70s, literally like summer. Lots of rain near 11" and greenest grass I've seen so early in the season.
Quoting 156. Neapolitan:

Another frightening dashcam video from a vehicle fleeing Ft. McMurray. The, er, "fun" really starts about a minute in. NOTE FOR THOSE WITH SENSITIVE EARS: the driver utters a few expletives, so turn down the volume before playing:




The driver of the truck with the dash cam tells his story. He actually got off work from working in the oil field and got a phone call when he got home. He was told by a friend that his neighborhood was being evacuated. He had no idea his neighborhood was being evacuated. He grabbed a few things and left. Also additional footage - he had a dash cam facing backwards also.

Link
Quoting 172. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

faster faster
Sure seems faster and faster, as we get older.
Test
Quoting 170. 69Viking:



Yes, it was beautiful outside this morning, sucks I had to go to work! Looks like we'll have a couple more cool mornings before it starts to warm up over the weekend and then some rain early next week.


In my opinion, mid to late Spring (April-late May) is the most beautiful time of year in Panhandle Florida (Tallahassee opinion) Even June retains a touch of decency before the misery of July and the thousand days of August
Quoting 153. islander101010:
Much needed rainfall in Latin America associated with the cold front.
Now that I'm well into my fifth year of residing in the mountains of western Panama near the Costa Rica border, I am beginning to understand the weather and climate patterns here better. The patterns here in the higher-altitude tropics on an isthums between the Atlantic and Pacific Oeans are quite different from the frontal systems in temperate latitudes. Unlike India, where the pre-monsoon seasonal winds push the heat high up the slopes of the Himalaya Mountain range and produce heat up to 90+ degrees F on a daily basis, Panama's upslope regions are much cooler. The Isthmus of Panama is about 50 miles wide at my location. The Talamanca mountain range - the continental divide - reaches heights of about 8,000" (2,400m). I live at 3,200' (975m) elevation on the slopes of Panama's highest mountain - 11,400" (3,475m) tall Volcan Baru. Our long-inactive volcano nudges into the Talamanca range with its northern slopes. I'm also just a few miles south of the top of the Talamanca Mountains, which separates us from the very wet slopes of Bocas del Toro on the Caribbean side.

We are having the wettest start to the rainy season since I moved here in February, 2012. April of that year was very wet, with 24"of rain. Then in May precip amounts dropped to well below average, and stayed below average ever since. We normally have two "pulses" of typically heavier than normal precip. The first is in May/June as the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough line moves north, and again in October/November as it moves back south for the NH winter. That second pulse normally brings this region its heaviest rains of the year, although we can have heavy rains any month during the April - November rainy season. .

Since the May, 2012 drop in precipitation, we have been in the 50-60% range of the averages for the previous 5 years. I've been collecting data from my friend Lloyd Cripes Palmira WU/PWC, which is about one mile south of my home, and 1,000 ft higher. (Unlike most first-world countries, Panama has no government-funded repositories of internet-available weather and climate data. Most climate and meteorological records for Panama are in the hands of the Panama Canal Authority meteorologists and the hydroelectric companies.)

The Nullschool interactive wind maps show significant recent changes in the Caribbean easterly trade winds, which blow strongly east-to-west across Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua to the Pacific during our dry season. Now, in a classic start to our rainy season, the westerly Pacific winds are strong enough to bring the Pacific moisture to us - which gives us our major rain events. At my elevation, temps in the low 60's (F) these days vs. 75-85 degrees F. in the dry (and windy) season.

Below is a graph of monthly rainfall, and 2016 data is in black for easy visibility. As you can see, April of 2016 was above average - and that was entirely based on rain in the last four days of the month as the ITCZ moved up to our latitude.

It has rained every day since about April 27, and the first four days of May have given us nearly as much rain as the entire month of May last year. I have a feeling that the weather this year is going to be much different for Central America and the Caribbean. I will follow the hurricane season closely. Although we need morerain than in the past few years, we definitely don't need another disaster like Hurricane Mitch of 1998, which followed the last super El Nino.

David van Harn (a.k.a. "Xulonn")
Retired U.S. Expat
Boquete, Chiriqui, Panama

"In the first four months of this year, there have been more forest fires across India than in all of 2015 or 2014, according to Indian Environment Minister Prakash Javdekar. The government counted 20,667 wildfires up to April 21 this year in the Himalayan foothills and in central and eastern India, he told lawmakers. By comparison, there were 15,937 forest fires recorded in 2015, 19,054 in 2014, and 18,451 in 2013."
Quoting 178. RitaEvac:

2 mornings in a row with lows in the mid 50s in SE TX. This should be the last time we see this....till October. Summer heat knocking down the door.

Most of April was a very humid, summer like feel with dewpoints in the 70s and morning lows in the 70s, literally like summer. Lots of rain near 11" and greenest grass I've seen so early in the season.


This morning was our first morning in the 50's in NW Florida, we get two more before it starts to warm up. over the weekend. Right now it's 71 with a dew point of 47 and humidity at 42%, definitely not very Florida like weather!
Test...

Edit: It took 20 minutes for my above much longer comment to show up. I'm learning to be patient and save my posts in Notepad in case they get lost.

It's going to get real interesting when the next tropical storm forms and there are several comments per minute - blog chaos will ensue.

(I wonder why the WU programming staff are not fixing this long-lingering problem of serious delays in the posting of comments?)
Alberta wildfire set to be Canada's costliest natural disaster

"A wildfire in the Alberta city of Fort McMurray is set to become the costliest ever Canadian natural disaster for insurers, with 1,600 buildings destroyed and another 19,000 under threat, analysts and industry sources say.

"The bill for insurers is expected to be several times more than the C$700 million ($544 million) paid out for a wildfire in Slave Lake, Alberta, in 2011.

"The fire in Slave Lake, a small town 250 km (155 miles)northwest of the city of Edmonton, led to the destruction of 374 homes, less than a quarter of the number of structures already destroyed at Fort McMurray, and damaged another 52. "If you're looking at four times that of Slave Lake you're getting to well over C$2 billion ($1.6 billion) so there is a possibility that this may become the biggest catastrophic claim in Canada," said DBRS analyst Stewart McIlwraith.

"The unchecked fire, now in its fourth day Wednesday, has prompted the full evacuation of Fort McMurray's 88,000 residents. It has not, however, endangered the major oil producers in the area, the heart of the oil sands industry.

"The fire is also likely to exceed the C$1.9 billion in losses caused by the Alberta floods of 2013, which set the record for the costliest Canadian disaster. Those losses were limited by the fact that many policies did not cover the type of flooding experience."

Source: Reuters
We're enjoying "Sinkhole De Mayo" today here in the NO County State.


Sinkhole de Mayo party gets national attention




Note to Exxon: Lying About Climate Change Isn’t Free Speech—It’s Fraud

Facing hundreds of billions of dollars in potential damages, the fossil-fuel giant is trying to change the subject.

When in trouble, change the subject—or at least try to. So it is that the world’s oldest, richest, and most powerful oil company, under investigation for apparently lying to investors and the public for decades about the deadliness of its products, has launched a high-stakes counterattack under the unlikely flag of the First Amendment. On April 13, ExxonMobil filed suit to block a subpoena issued by the attorney general of the US Virgin Islands. Following revelations from the Los Angeles Times and InsideClimate News, the subpoena charged that the company may have violated the territory’s anti-racketeering law. It questioned whether Exxon told investors, including the territory’s pension fund, one thing about climate change (that it wasn’t a danger) while its own scientists were privately telling its management the opposite.

Link
Based upon the most recent heat stats for the globe (the Jan-Feb-March heat records etc), I am enjoying these few cool days for the SE US due to the recent front. I suspect that we may see some brutal heat this summer in many parts of the world and certainly in the equatorial regions and the mid-latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Not looking forward to Summers in the near future either.............................Seems like shorter Winters and longer Summers might be trend we are heading into over the next several decades for the NH.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Thankfully and with Love from friends who travel,I've been blessed to have met or have come to visit here in NOLA, over 25 people from wunderground in 10 years now.

I even had the op to give away a Bride on Her wedding day.

Today marks 10 years since my First "Patrap" wunderblog was published.

So heres to 10 more to come!

A Heartfelt thanks to all my wunderfriend's globally.



Quoting 190. JrWeathermanFL:




here is an animation too go with that

Quoting 183. georgevandenberghe:



In my opinion, mid to late Spring (April-late May) is the most beautiful time of year in Panhandle Florida (Tallahassee opinion) Even June retains a touch of decency before the misery of July and the thousand days of August



I like the October and November timeframe too when the cold fronts that have been missing since July start breaking thought the heat starting in Late September, in the Fort Walton Beach area myself.