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Joaquin, Patricia, and Erika Get Their Names Retired From the List of Hurricanes

By: Jeff Masters 3:32 PM GMT on April 28, 2016

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced last week that three tropical cyclones from 2015 would get their names retired--Hurricane Joaquin and Tropical Storm Erika in the Atlantic, and Hurricane Patricia in the Eastern Pacific. The WMO will replace Erika with “Elsa”, Joaquin with “Julian” and Patricia with “Pamela” when the 2015 lists are reused in 2021.

The two new retired names in the Atlantic brings the total number of storm names retired since 1953 to 80. Although the Eastern Pacific, on average, has more hurricane activity than the Atlantic, far fewer storms have had their names retired in the Eastern Pacific, since the prevailing steering currents tend to take the storms to the west-northwest, away from land. Patricia is just the 11th storm to get its name retired (the names Adolph and Israel were removed from the Eastern Pacific list in 2001 due to political considerations, bringing the total number of retired names in the basin to thirteen.) Prior to Patricia, Mexico's Hurricane Manuel from 2013 and Hurricane Odile from 2014 both had their names retired, making 2015 the third consecutive year a hurricane has gotten its name retired in the Eastern Pacific--an unprecedented occurrence.


Figure 1. Hurricane Patricia as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra spacecraft at 1:30 pm EDT October 23, 2015. Five hours prior to this time, Patricia was the most intense tropical cyclone (for wind) ever observed on Earth, with 215 mph sustained surface winds and a central pressure of 872 mb. Image credit: NASA.

Earth's strongest tropical cyclone ever measured: Hurricane Patricia
Record-warm ocean waters helped Hurricane Patricia explode into a Category 5 storm with 215 mph sustained surface winds and a central pressure of 872 mb off the Pacific coast of Mexico on October 23, 2015. Hurricane Patricia's 215 mph winds officially tie it with the Northwest Pacific's Super Typhoon Nancy of 1961 for strongest winds of any tropical cyclone in world history, and Patricia's lowest pressure of 872 mb makes it the second most intense tropical cyclone in world history by pressure, behind the 870 mb measured in the Northwest Pacific's Super Typhoon Tip of 1979 (Tip's top sustained winds of "only" 190 mph were not as high as Patricia's, since Tip was a large, sprawling storm that did not have a tiny concentrated area of extreme eyewall winds.) Patricia made landfall in a relatively unpopulated area near Cuixmala in Southwest Mexico on October 23 as a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds, killing fourteen and doing $325 million in damage. For more information, see my post, Hurricane Patricia's 215 mph Winds: A Warning Shot Across Our Bow.


Video 1. Floodwaters rage through a street on Dominica island in the Caribbean on Thursday, August 27, 2015, after Tropical Storm Erika dumped 12+" of rain on the island.

Dominica's costliest storm in history: Tropical Storm Erika
Although Tropical Storm Erika never reached hurricane strength, the storm brought a catastrophic deluge on August 27, 2015 to the Caribbean island of Dominica (population 72,000). Erika killed 30 people on the island and caused $300 million in damage--57% of their GDP of $524 million. Dominica's previous most expensive disaster was the $175 million in damage from Hurricane Marilyn of 1995. Erika is just the second Atlantic tropical storm not to reach hurricane strength to get its name retired. The other was Tropical Storm Allison of 2001, which brought record flooding to Texas, killing 41 and causing over $9 billion in damage.


Figure 2. Hurricane Joaquin as seen by the GOES-East satellite at 7:45 am EDT October 1, 2015. At the time, Joaquin was an intensifying Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds. The last position of the cargo ship El Faro, in the northwestern eyewall of Joaquin, is shown. Image credit: United States Navy and NOAA.

Hurricane Joaquin
Hurricane Joaquin was the strongest Atlantic hurricane since 2007, topping out just below Category 5 strength on October 3, 2015 with 155 mph winds. Joaquin was the second deadliest and second most damaging Atlantic named storm of 2015, causing $100 million in damage in the Central Bahamas, where it lingered for several days. Joaquin's death toll was 34, with 33 of these deaths occurring from the sinking of the ill-fated cargo ship El Faro. Although Joaquin tracked far to the east of the United States, a non-tropical low over the Southeast tapped into the hurricane's moisture, causing record-shattering rains and flooding across North and South Carolina. Several areas of South Carolina saw accumulations exceeding the threshold for a 1-in-1,000-year event. The subsequent floods inundated large areas of the state, killing 21 people and causing over $2 billion in damage.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments


14/6/2.5 my predictions....

Erika tho
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.
late with the news
but thanks for the update
I love edge its fast
chorme sucks
   Thanks for the Update, Dr. Masters....
Thank You Dr. Speaking of the E-Pac, their season starts May 15th, and those waters are plenty warm and priming with the start of the Central American monsoon season. However, the shear-jet stream is howling in that region at the moment as well.



It May Soon Be Too Late to Save the Seas
An alarming new study suggests global warming could leave marine life struggling to exist.
By Jeff Nesbit | Contributor April 27, 2016, at 2:46 p.m.


The basics of the problem are this. The entirety of our oceans (from the waters at the ocean floor to the shallows) gets its oxygen supply from the surface. That oxygen is dissolved either from the atmosphere or from phytoplankton (which releases oxygen into the water through photosynthesis, a process nearly every child in America understands by the time they leave elementary school).

But as the planet's surface warms – and it has already warmed, on average, by about 1.7 degrees Fahrenheit since the start of the industrial revolution – the ocean's surface absorbs less oxygen.

What's even worse is that, as the ocean's surface heats up, the absorbed oxygen begins to struggle to travel deeper into the ocean. A simple chemistry experiment shows why: as water heats up, it expands and becomes lighter than the water below and less likely to sink. So less absorbed oxygen travels into the depths as a result.

While it's true that natural cycles of warming and cooling change the oxygen concentrations at the surface of the oceans, that isn't the case at the deeper levels of the ocean where a great deal of marine life lives. There, changes occurring now due to global warming can literally alter the web of life for decades.

Related issue to the post by Pat below as to the warming in the Gulf of Maine:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/30/science/c ods-continuing-decline-traced-to-warming-gulf-of-m aine-waters.html

Rapid warming in the Gulf of Maine contributed to the collapse of cod fishing in New England, and might help explain why the cod population has failed to recover, even though fishing has largely ceased, according to a new study.

A team of marine scientists found that rising temperatures in the gulf decreased reproduction and increased mortality among the once-plentiful Atlantic cod, adding to the toll of many decades of overfishing.

Quoting Jeff Masters:

Erika killed 30 people on the island [of Dominica] and caused $300 million in damage--57% of their GDP of $524 million.
A proportional disaster--one costing 57% of the US GDP and causing the same percentage of fatalities--would come in at roughly $9.5 trillion, or roughly 80 times Katrina's tab, and leave around 132,000 Americans dead.
Quoting 6. Tazmanian:

chorme sucks


LOL! Is it me? I've been told I've got an offbeat sense of humour.
Quoting 9. Patrap:

It May Soon Be Too Late to Save the Seas
An alarming new study suggests global warming could leave marine life struggling to exist.
By Jeff Nesbit | Contributor April 27, 2016, at 2:46 p.m.


The basics of the problem are this. The entirety of our oceans (from the waters at the ocean floor to the shallows) gets its oxygen supply from the surface. That oxygen is dissolved either from the atmosphere or from phytoplankton (which releases oxygen into the water through photosynthesis, a process nearly every child in America understands by the time they leave elementary school).

But as the planet's surface warms – and it has already warmed, on average, by about 1.7 degrees Fahrenheit since the start of the industrial revolution – the ocean's surface absorbs less oxygen.

What's even worse is that, as the ocean's surface heats up, the absorbed oxygen begins to struggle to travel deeper into the ocean. A simple chemistry experiment shows why: as water heats up, it expands and becomes lighter than the water below and less likely to sink. So less absorbed oxygen travels into the depths as a result.

While it's true that natural cycles of warming and cooling change the oxygen concentrations at the surface of the oceans, that isn't the case at the deeper levels of the ocean where a great deal of marine life lives. There, changes occurring now due to global warming can literally alter the web of life for decades.




This could also be an important and unrecognised positive feedback, accelerating global warming. It's estimated that 90% of the extra energy trapped by GHGs goes into the ocean. If the topmost strata of the ocean becomes less able to mix with water at depth as it warms and expands, the 90% figure will drop, and the atmosphere will warm up more as a result.

I've been reading up on the science of global warming since the 80s, and I don't remember ever coming across this being discussed as a potential positive feedback. Makes you wonder how many other unanticipated feedback effects are waiting for us around the corner.
Orleans Severe Watches & Warnings NOAA Weather Radio
Watches & Warnings
Flash Flood Watch
Issued: 9:39 AM CDT Apr. 28, 2016 – National Weather Service

... Flash Flood Watch in effect until 7 PM CDT this evening...

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of southeast Louisiana and
Mississippi... including the following areas... in southeast
Louisiana... Orleans... southern Tangipahoa... St. Charles... St.
John The Baptist... St. Tammany... upper Jefferson... upper
Plaquemines and upper St. Bernard. In Mississippi... Hancock
and Harrison.

* Until 7 PM CDT this evening

* localized heavy rain of 3 to 5 inches with locally higher
amounts will be possible.

* Rainfall amounts of 2 inches in an hour could quickly lead to
localized flash flooding concerns... especially in urban areas
where runoff will be very quick.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.

Public Information StatementIssued: 9:00 AM CDT Apr. 28, 2016 – National Weather Service

... NOAA Weather Radio kih21 in Gulfport MS is down...

The NOAA Weather Radio out of Gulfport MS is down due to a power
outage. There is no estimate on return of service. We apologize for
any inconvenience.
We came so close in 2005---went to bed with Rita a Cat 4 in the GOM, woke up next morning now a Cat 5, and all the computer model tracks had her coming ashore just off the west end of Galveston Island, tracking west of Houston. In all the 41 years that I have lived in this city, and all the tropical storms/hurricanes I have experienced, I don't think I've EVER been so frightened before, or since. So the name Patricia has been retired from the eastern Pacific list of names. Quite frankly I hope than in my lifetime I don't get to see what name gets retired after such a monster mauls the Houston/Galveston area. Notice I said "after". It's just a matter of when.
Quoting 10. weathermanwannabe:

Related issue to the post by Pat below as to the warming in the Gulf of Maine:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/30/science/c ods-continuing-decline-traced-to-warming-gulf-of-m aine-waters.html

Rapid warming in the Gulf of Maine contributed to the collapse of cod fishing in New England, and might help explain why the cod population has failed to recover, even though fishing has largely ceased, according to a new study.

A team of marine scientists found that rising temperatures in the gulf decreased reproduction and increased mortality among the once-plentiful Atlantic cod, adding to the toll of many decades of overfishing.




The link was messed up. Here is the correct link:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/30/science/cods-co ntinuing-decline-traced-to-warming-gulf-of-maine-w aters.html

Quoting 17. MrHul:




The link was messed up. Here is the correct link:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/30/science/cods-co ntinuing-decline-traced-to-warming-gulf-of-maine-w aters.html

Thanks; I am not getting the "link" icon for the blog on my desktop today so I could not insert the live link.
Quoting 13. yonzabam:



This could also be an important and unrecognised positive feedback, accelerating global warming. It's estimated that 90% of the extra energy trapped by GHGs goes into the ocean. If the topmost strata of the ocean becomes less able to mix with water at depth as it warms and expands, the 90% figure will drop, and the atmosphere will warm up more as a result.

I've been reading up on the science of global warming since the 80s, and I don't remember ever coming across this being discussed as a potential positive feedback. Makes you wonder how many other unanticipated feedback effects are waiting for us around the corner.
I'm not sure it's even limited to this effect -- if the surface temps can not be dispersed to the depths they will increase even more rapidly, per this positive feedback -- and at what temperature will the phytoplankton begin to reduce photosynthesis, and that source of oxygen in the surface waters will be reduced as well? That would be particularly bad for sea life, and since a large percentage of the atmosphere's oxygen is generated by phytoplankton, probably pretty bad for land life as well.
Here are the current blended global SST's for this week as we look around the global tropics; quiet at the moment in spite of some very favorable SST's across several parts of equatorial regions; the Indian Ocean seems the hottest at the moment with parts of the Pacific not far behind:




Test - blog frozen or just extremely slow today?

I guess it's just slow. Hot and sunny in Fort Myers today. It will be hot until November here.




not very warm today here, currently 60.8F
Just extremely slow....
Obama declares disaster as the Marshall Islands hit by worst ever drought

Guardian
Quoting 24. PedleyCA:

Just extremely slow....


Slow is not always bad. I'm on my back up laptop because my main computer froze up on me. I had to do a complete re-boot (still waiting for it to load). I had one of these installing new program freeze. Don't know what "program" caused the lock up.
27. bwi
A tidbit: Today's measure of arctic sea ice extent fell below 12.5 million km2 earliest date on record. Prior dates passing that point:
2016: April 27
2015: May 6
2014: May 8
2013: May 11-14 (data missing)
2012: May 14
2011: May 8
2010: May 11
2009: May 18
2008: May 14
2007: May 9
2006: May 2

2010-2015 average: May 10
2000-2009 average: May 14
1990-1999 average: May 22
1980-1989 average: June 2

h/t Espen and Jim Pettit on the Sea Ice Forum

So sad that TVN will no longer be live streaming for storm spotters.
Quoting 28. wxsample:

So sad that TVN will no longer be live streaming for storm spotters.



NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO that been my go to go site for many out breaks
Very interesting evening in S C IL last night, had turned on StL news and they had tornado watch for some MO counties N of StL and Hardin County in IL (skinny one E of MS & N of IL Rivers confluence) Before heading out caught weather and they showed a Tstorm moving along I-70 E of Vandalia and one up by the NW panhandle of my county on I-55. Headed out to mow our lake lot since in between the two. Did notice an easterly wind heading out while storms moving to ENE. Get a call from my mother, is all ok down there? Yes, why? Spfld station says tornado in Raymond another N of Witt heading toward Nokomis. Well ok where I'm at, but pretty dark to N. No watch or warning when left, 20 min later two mild out in field touchdowns in my county & Raymond one touched down again in county to our N, again no damage reported. Was in place w/ music playing, so couldn't hear TV, but had a funnel symbol along I-70 as well, but nothing in either StL or Spfld news about it. Dew pt had really jumped before I left work too, so fuel there, but no advance warning for us. Edit: Forgot, received 1.6" from later Tstorm that knocked power off for a second. (& cut off my seeing Cards rally)

Currently a couple above forecast high already, 69 w/ a much more comfortable 48 dew pt. Press on way back up, 29.85" w/ 10-13 SW winds gusting to 21. Rain this weekend, then very comfortable if little cool week leading up to Derby Day in our 10 day.
#13:
"Makes you wonder how many other unanticipated feedback effects are waiting for us around the corner."
Seems to me those pesky feedback effects are not waiting for us at all.
They are here and now.
Quoting 16. HouGalv08:

We came so close in 2005---went to bed with Rita a Cat 4 in the GOM, woke up next morning now a Cat 5, and all the computer model tracks had her coming ashore just off the west end of Galveston Island, tracking west of Houston. In all the 41 years that I have lived in this city, and all the tropical storms/hurricanes I have experienced, I don't think I've EVER been so frightened before, or since. So the name Patricia has been retired from the eastern Pacific list of names. Quite frankly I hope than in my lifetime I don't get to see what name gets retired after such a monster mauls the Houston/Galveston area. Notice I said "after". It's just a matter of when.


Yep, remember it all so well. I mean that was basically THE almighty worse case track and intensity scenario for Galveston and Houston. It was unbelievable. Better hope that never pans out in our lifetime, because if it does....we may never recover....it'll take decade(s), and businesses and people don't have that kind of time to recoup losses.

*Rita*Evac
Really, Erika gets renamed to Elsa?

Jeez, whats next kristoff?
Quoting 30. Tazmanian:




NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO that been my go to go site for many out breaks


Agreed, was just watching them the other day. Too bad they shut down like that with no notice. Who was the 2nd best?




Orleans Parish Severe Watches & WarningsNOAA Weather Radio

Watches & WarningsAreal Flood Advisory, Flash Flood WatchIssued: 12:34 PM CDT Apr. 28, 2016 – National Weather Service

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for poor drainage areas
for...
southwestern Orleans Parish in southeastern Louisiana...
west central St. Bernard Parish in southeastern Louisiana...
northwestern Plaquemines Parish in southeastern Louisiana...
northwestern Jefferson Parish in southeastern Louisiana...

* until 230 PM CDT

* at 1234 PM CDT... Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. This will cause Urban and Small Stream flooding.
Overflowing poor drainage areas will result in minor flooding in
the advisory area.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
New Orleans... Harvey... Marrero... Timberlane... Avondale... Belle Chasse...
Chalmette... Jefferson... Gretna... Harahan... Westwego... Jean Lafitte...
Elmwood... River Ridge... Waggaman... Estelle... Woodmere... Arabi... Terrytown
and Poydras.

Lat... Lon 2981 9017 2982 9017 2986 9024 2988 9024
      2990 9027 2997 9027 2996 8999 2977 8979
      2976 9019


24/rr




939 am CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

... Flash Flood Watch in effect until 7 PM CDT this evening...

Confirmed EF1 damage in N.E. Oklahoma City from Tuesday's storms
Quoting 37. Patrap:




Damn, that's some training and backbuilding going on

MDR is warming up...as I have said before, it's not a safe bet that the Cape Verde season will be inactive...
Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la
1134 am CDT Thursday Apr 28 2016

Update...busy morning. Showers and thunderstorms have been
backbuilding along a subtle boundary that has slowly drifted
south through the MS coastal counties and the parishes along the
Northshore. This boundary is moving into the southshore and will
be the focus for further development. A very moisture rich airmass
is in place across the region with 12z sndg measuring 1.86 precipitable water.
Combine that with middle and upper level flow paralleling the surface
feature along with more than sufficient instability in place and
the right ingredients are coming together for a very localized
heavy rain threat. A Flash Flood Watch was issued earlier for
parishes surrounding Lake Pontchartrain and maybe expanded
depending on satellite and radar trends. The Flash Flood Watch
also contains Hancock and Harrison counties where high water
rescues continue due to ongoing flash flooding. All grids and
zones have been issued already. /Cab/

&&
Quoting 35. uptxcoast:



Agreed, was just watching them the other day. Too bad they shut down like that with no notice. Who was the 2nd best?


severe stuodio
Quoting 28. wxsample:

So sad that TVN will no longer be live streaming for storm spotters.
So long as chasers still have cameras and a cell connection, they can just as easily use Periscope (or Meerkat) to stream live to the world. And the whole thing is decentralized, so the experience should never be as choppy and intermittent as that from TVN. (And FWIW, I can stream video from my UAV and broadcast to YouTube ; I plan to use that during a few thunderstorms this summer.)
Not sure if this has been posted but here is Micheal Ventrice thoughts on the upcoming hurricane season...
Link
I'll be leaving this pollen trap by morning although I'm glad we're finally seeing steady rain around here.
Houston/Galveston offices are taking no chances.... Flash Flood watch issued ahead of Friday's expected storms


Flash Flood Watch
Issued: 2:04 PM CDT Apr. 28, 2016 – National Weather Service

... Flash Flood Watch in effect from Friday afternoon through
Sunday morning...

The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for a portion of southeast Texas... including
the following Austin... Brazos... Burleson... Colorado... Fort ...
Bend... Grimes... Harris... Houston... Madison... Montgomery...
Polk... San Jacinto... Trinity... Walker... Waller... Washington
and Wharton.

* From Friday afternoon through Sunday morning

* unusually moist tropical air will stream into the region Friday
as southerly winds increase. An upper level jetstream will bring
a series of disturbances into the region and should help to
develop showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon over the
western portions of the watch area then shifting eastward and
northward throughout the region Friday night and Saturday. The
ground is saturated and any storms with high rain rates will
lead to rapid runoff and flooding. The heaviest rainfall threat
should peak Friday night through Saturday afternoon. Additional
rainfall is possible after that and the ground will be saturated
and streams and bayous may already be swollen or flooding.
Widespread rainfall totals through the watch period will likely
average 2 to 4 inches with localized amounts of 5 to 8 inches.
Much of these amounts could come in only a few hours of heavy
rain. As we approach the watch period confidence in timing and
location will likely improve the focus for where the heavy rains
will fall.

* Streets... bayous... streams and rivers will likely have the
greatest impacts from the heavy rainfall. Motorists and persons
with outdoor activities should stay abreast of the latest
forecasts and have contingency plans for when the heavy rain
arrives.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.
Quoting 40. HurricaneFan:


MDR is warming up...as I have said before, it's not a safe bet that the Cape Verde season will be inactive...

Fingers crossed.
Quoting 46. Gearsts:


Fingers crossed.


Wow!!!
Quoting 47. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Wow!!!


My goodness that is some intense heating in the MDR. If the warming trends continue in Northern and Eastern Atlantic we may head into a positive AMO at some point in the summer but it is uncertain given its hard to predict SST anamolies. If it continues this way through hurricane season with La Nina on its way hard to imagine that this season won't be above average in activity.
Quoting 48. WeatherkidJoe2323:



My goodness that is some intense heating in the MDR. If the warming trends continue in Northern and Eastern Atlantic we may head into a positive AMO at some point in the summer but it is uncertain given its hard to predict SST anamolies. If it continues this way through hurricane season with La Nina on its way hard to imagine that this season won't be above average in activity.

This is why I don't think 2016 will be an inactive season in the Atlantic. Remember, as I state all the time, the MDR warmed up a LOT in August and September 2015. SST anomalies can rapidly change.
Experts believe the MDR will continue to warm through the spring into the summer.If 2015 which had some of the worst conditions possible for a T.C to form,could produce a average season I don't see why 2016 couldn't have a slightly above average season.I think 15 named storms seems reasonable at this time.
The most reasonably accurate pre-season forecasts for the Atlantic are issued in August by the major prediction outlets before we get into the peak period and are updated for obvious reasons; looking at the August real time conditions in terms of Enso, sheer and instability values, and overall SST's in the MDR. Too early to know what conditions will settle into by then but assuming that we see more favorable conditions, the current numbers could be nudged up in the general direction of an above-average season. Have to wait and see how all the factors evolve over the next three months in the Atlantic Basin.
What I find most glaring from the charts posted below is that continued pile-up of very warm SSTs in the Gulf Stream off the NE US coast due south of the North Atlantic cold pool......................


53. SLU
So many factors to consider and so little time..............Everyone have a safe weather evening and here is the Conus forecast for tomorrow.  See Yall in the AM.

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach Apr 27 Lafayette, CA
Since 1878, FL has been impacted by the most hurricanes (96), followed by TX (55). LA and NC tied for 3rd (47).
Quoting 42. Tazmanian:



severe stuodio


Yeah, www.severestudios.com
Link
Idk if someone already posted this here, but here is a pretty neat story.

Japanese Priests Collected Almost Seven Centuries of Climate Data

000
WEPA40 PHEB 282048
TSUPAC

TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 3
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
2044 UTC THU APR 28 2016

...PTWC TSUNAMI THREAT MESSAGE...


**** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE *****

THIS MESSAGE IS ISSUED FOR INFORMATION ONLY IN SUPPORT OF THE
UNESCO/IOC PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING AND MITIGATION SYSTEM AND IS
MEANT FOR NATIONAL AUTHORITIES IN EACH COUNTRY OF THAT SYSTEM.

NATIONAL AUTHORITIES WILL DETERMINE THE APPROPRIATE LEVEL OF
ALERT FOR EACH COUNTRY AND MAY ISSUE ADDITIONAL OR MORE REFINED
INFORMATION.

**** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE *****


PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
---------------------------------

* MAGNITUDE 7.0
* ORIGIN TIME 1933 UTC APR 28 2016
* COORDINATES 16.2 SOUTH 167.7 EAST
* DEPTH 10 KM / 6 MILES
* LOCATION VANUATU


EVALUATION
----------

* AN EARTHQUAKE WITH A PRELIMINARY MAGNITUDE OF 7.0 OCCURRED IN
THE VANUATU ISLANDS AT 1933 UTC ON THURSDAY APRIL 28 2016.

* BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA... HAZARDOUS TSUNAMI WAVES ARE
FORECAST FOR SOME COASTS.


TSUNAMI THREAT FORECAST
-----------------------

* TSUNAMI WAVES REACHING 1 TO 3 METERS ABOVE THE TIDE LEVEL ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG SOME COASTS OF

VANUATU.


* TSUNAMI WAVES ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 0.3 METERS ABOVE
THE TIDE LEVEL FOR THE COASTS OF

NEW CALEDONIA... PAPUA NEW GUINEA... SOLOMON
ISLANDS...

* TSUNAMI WAVES ARE FORECAST TO BE MUCH LESS THAN 0.3 METERS
FOR OTHER COASTS.

* ACTUAL AMPLITUDES AT THE COAST MAY VARY FROM FORECAST
AMPLITUDES DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND LOCAL
FEATURES. IN PARTICULAR MAXIMUM TSUNAMI AMPLITUDES ON ATOLLS
WILL LIKELY BE MUCH SMALLER THAN THE FORECAST INDICATES.

* FOR OTHER AREAS COVERED BY THIS PRODUCT A FORECAST HAS NOT
YET BEEN COMPUTED. THE FORECAST WILL BE EXPANDED AS NECESSARY
IN SUBSEQUENT PRODUCTS.


RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
-------------------

* GOVERNMENT AGENCIES RESPONSIBLE FOR THREATENED COASTAL AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO INFORM AND INSTRUCT ANY COASTAL
POPULATIONS AT RISK IN ACCORDANCE WITH THEIR OWN EVALUATION...
PROCEDURES AND THE LEVEL OF THREAT.

* PERSONS LOCATED IN THREATENED COASTAL AREAS SHOULD STAY ALERT
FOR INFORMATION AND FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM NATIONAL AND
LOCAL AUTHORITIES.


ESTIMATED TIMES OF ARRIVAL
--------------------------

* ESTIMATED TIMES OF ARRIVAL -ETA- OF THE INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE
FOR PLACES WITHIN THREATENED REGIONS ARE GIVEN BELOW. ACTUAL
ARRIVAL TIMES MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE
LARGEST. A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE TIME BETWEEN
WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.

LOCATION REGION COORDINATES ETA(UTC)
-------------------------------------------------- ----------
ESPERITU SANTO VANUATU 15.1S 167.3E 1951 04/28
ANATOM ISLAND VANUATU 20.2S 169.9E 2043 04/28


POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES. THE TIME BETWEEN WAVE CRESTS
CAN VARY FROM 5 MINUTES TO AN HOUR. THE HAZARD MAY PERSIST FOR
MANY HOURS OR LONGER AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE.

* IMPACTS CAN VARY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM ONE SECTION OF COAST TO
THE NEXT DUE TO LOCAL BATHYMETRY AND THE SHAPE AND ELEVATION
OF THE SHORELINE.

* IMPACTS CAN ALSO VARY DEPENDING UPON THE STATE OF THE TIDE AT
THE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM TSUNAMI WAVES.

* PERSONS CAUGHT IN THE WATER OF A TSUNAMI MAY DROWN... BE
CRUSHED BY DEBRIS IN THE WATER... OR BE SWEPT OUT TO SEA.


NEXT UPDATE AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
--------------------------------------

* THE NEXT MESSAGE WILL BE ISSUED IN ONE HOUR... OR SOONER IF
THE SITUATION WARRANTS.

* AUTHORITATIVE INFORMATION ABOUT THE EARTHQUAKE FROM THE U.S.
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT
EARTHQUAKE.USGS.GOV/EARTHQUAKES -ALL LOWER CASE-.

* FURTHER INFORMATION ABOUT THIS EVENT MAY BE FOUND AT
PTWC.WEATHER.GOV AND AT WWW.TSUNAMI.GOV.

* COASTAL REGIONS OF HAWAII... AMERICAN SAMOA... GUAM... AND
CNMI SHOULD REFER TO PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES
SPECIFICALLY FOR THOSE PLACES THAT CAN BE FOUND AT
PTWC.WEATHER.GOV.

* COASTAL REGIONS OF CALIFORNIA... OREGON... WASHINGTON...
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA SHOULD ONLY REFER TO U.S. NATIONAL
TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES THAT CAN BE FOUND AT
NTWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV.

Wow these sst charts could well be spelling trouble for this hurricane season
could be very active i have been forecasting this for awhile now.
Until those upper level westerly winds go back to what they used to be the western Carib won't see anything.
97 Kts almost due west again today at 400 near Cayman
Quoting 60. stoormfury:

Wow these sst charts could well be spelling trouble for this hurricane season
could be very active i have been forecasting this for awhile now.
Looking like a wet pattern to start May.
Late night hello with some "romantic" atmosphere from central European vineyards last night, lit up with candles ....


Photo: DPA (published in Spiegel). Here some more pics.

Only, it wasn't that romantic but due to the unusual (at least in times of GW) coldspell which made temps plummeting and threatening the young green of the grapes. So a lot of winegrowers (in my region, too) chose to lit up special candles in the night to raise temps a little bit.

Deep freeze: Switzerland shivers through icy night
The Local (Switzerland), Published: 28 Apr 2016 10:41 GMT 02:00
Temperatures dipped below freezing in many parts of Switzerland on Wednesday night, with the intense cold causing havoc for winegrowers. ...
The situation for grape growers is critical when the temperature falls below freezing, local winemaker Martin Donatsch told the tabloid newspaper Blick.
Donatsch was one of those to lay out frost candles on Wednesday night %u2013 a tactic which can raise ground temperatures by up to 3C. ...
Winegrowers need up to 200 candles for a hectare of grapes, but Donatsch had to make do with just 30, which he used to protect the most vulnerable part of his harvest.
With the candles, which last ten hours, coming in at 18 Swiss francs a piece, it%u2019s not a cheap exercise. ...


Burgundy hit by 'worst frost since 1981'
Chris Mercer April 28, 2016
Burgundy's worst frost in more than 30 years in some areas may have already cut the potential size of the 2016 harvest, as 'stressed' producers seek to assess damage in their vineyards. ....

Worst is over now, fortunately, and temperatures should rise to normal or even above normal the next week in central Europe ... Elsewhere folks got very different problems anyway:

Malaysia records over 700 snake bites and encounters amid El Nino heatwave
by A. Azim Idris | 28th April 2016

Thailand faces longest heatwave in 65 years
Thursday, 28 April 2016 | MYT 1:49 PM

Good night from currently red-nosed Barb (due to the cold ;-) ...
Quoting 54. JRRP7:



Strong trades?
Looks like some conditions are coming together in the atlantic for at least a decent season.There are many questions that will only be answered when the season ends November 30th but for now...
Quoting 66. washingtonian115:

Looks like some conditions are coming together in the atlantic for at least a decent season.There are many questions that will only be answered when the season ends November 30th but for now...

I love when you bring that picture out, it has me laughing to the ground every time.


How well does the NAM 4KM perform in regards to predicting thunderstorms as opposed to the GFS, CMC, and the Euro?
Quoting 62. Climate175:

Looking like a wet pattern to start May.



Tell me about it.
Quoting 64. Gearsts:

Strong trades?

yeah... in two weaks
Quoting 70. JRRP7:


yeah... in two weaks


The NAO is expected to go positive for the first half of May. However, forecasts generally point to a stronger -NAO in the second half of the month, which I think could bring us MDR warming, and maybe even, TS Bonnie.


There is a good reason for the graphic I just posted. Most bayous in the city (Buffalo Bayou an exception) are back at their baseline levels. But, outside the city, streams, creeks, and bayous are running a few feet higher than normal still. And with a soggy ground any additional rain is unwelcome and can cause flooding concerns depending on how quickly it falls.

Basically, at this point all they want us to do is continue to watch the forecast. There is a bit less certainty with this event than there was last week. Also, it can't be underscored enough that the rain totals implied by all models with this event aren't anything like the last one. They want us to be prepared but not to panic here. They still don't know exactly where the heaviest rain will fall, but we know there will be a few spots that see a pretty substantial amount of rain (not 15-20 in. like last week, but 4-8 in. in a few spots isn't impossible).


What disturbs me most, however, is our instructions to "prepare, don't panic." Do they mean prepare for this like you would a tropical storm, hurricane, or winter storm?

Would power outages last for days or longer if they occur at all? (This would be do to the high number of toppled trees, obviously)
Quoting 33. RitaEvac:



Yep, remember it all so well. I mean that was basically THE almighty worse case track and intensity scenario for Galveston and Houston. It was unbelievable. Better hope that never pans out in our lifetime, because if it does....we may never recover....it'll take decade(s), and businesses and people don't have that kind of time to recoup losses.

*Rita*Evac



Would we be looking at not just a fuel shortage, but a full-blown energy crisis if that happens?

TCHP has now expanded throughout the caribbean and past the Lesser Antilles.Looks like early July not late April.
ECMWF shows increase trades again over the MDR.

But look to the west...
Re: #59 Patrap, I wonder if the 6.8 quake half and hour ago off the coast of Mexico might pose any tsunami hazard. It's pretty shallow at 10km and depending on the direction of movement could generate a tsunami. The East Pacific Rise is a spreading center so such a quake could have a vertical component and make waves. Guess the Mexican and El Salvador coasts might see some little action.
Quoting 75. Gearsts:

ECMWF shows increase trades again over the MDR.

Is this good or bad for the Atlantic hurricane season.
Quoting 77. Andrebrooks:

Is this good or bad for the Atlantic hurricane season.
A hurricane season close to home is bad.
Quoting 78. Gearsts:

A hurricane season close to home is bad.
ok
Hurricane seasons will not be the same until a dramatic shift in the overall atmospheric conditions in our region go back to well before El Niño conditions

Quoting 77. Andrebrooks:

Is this good or bad for the Atlantic hurricane season.
Quoting 58. OKsky:
Idk if someone already posted this here, but here is a pretty neat story.

Japanese Priests Collected Almost Seven Centuries of Climate Data
Cool link. Thanks!
Erika didn't merit retirement even slightly. What a waste.
Quoting 77. Andrebrooks:

Is this good or bad for the Atlantic hurricane season.


It just means more of the same; negative NAO continuing, with homegrown threats of greater concern. There's typically very little Cape Verde activity in cold AMO years.

Not that I ever really cared about those nearly as much as most people on this blog do, because you can almost bet on a recurvature. It's two weeks from Africa to the US.
Quoting 81. 19N81W:

Hurricane seasons will not be the same until a dramatic shift in the overall atmospheric conditions in our region go back to well before El Niño conditions




What?
Quoting 84. KoritheMan:

Erika didn't merit retirement even slightly. What a waste.


agreed they sould have gave it too Hanna of 2008 now that storm was worth retirement

Anthony Masiello
‏@antmasiello
Models agree on strong +NAO in SLP field developing in about 3 days, likely halting the Tropical Atlantic warming.
Quoting 85. KoritheMan:



It just means more of the same; negative NAO continuing, with homegrown threats of greater concern. There's typically very little Cape Verde activity in cold AMO years.

Not that I ever really cared about those nearly as much as most people on this blog do, because you can almost bet on a recurvature. It's two weeks from Africa to the US.
For people that live on the islands is a different story.
Quoting 89. Gearsts:

For people that live on the islands is a different story.


I know. I never said otherwise. It's my Gulf Coast bias talking. :P
Quoting 84. KoritheMan:

Erika didn't merit retirement even slightly. What a waste.
Well it did cause half the Dominica's GDP and was the worst storm on the island since David.Some of the locals have voiced their opinions on the blog being grateful that Erika will not be back.
Quoting 90. KoritheMan:



I know. I never said otherwise. It's my Gulf Coast bias talking. :P
You will probably have a busy season imo
Quoting 11. Neapolitan:
A proportional disaster--one costing 57% of the US GDP and causing the same percentage of fatalities--would come in at roughly $9.5 trillion, or roughly 80 times Katrina's tab, and leave around 132,000 Americans dead.
And just think, if something like that struck the whole world it would cost 57% of US$107.5 trillion in terms of purchasing power parity which is US$61.275 trillion, or roughly 516 times Katrina's tab, and leave over three million people dead.

Now for comparison:

"Over 1 million people die from mosquito-borne diseases every year, and hundreds of millions more experience pain and suffering from illnesses transmitted by mosquitoes."

So every three years brings about 516 times more deaths from mosquito borne illnesses than from Katrina. The economic costs totted up probably are not proportional because Aedes Aegypti overwhelmingly affects the poorer nations. Ergo we don't hear about it as much. Money talks. Dead people rot.
Quoting 91. washingtonian115:

Well it did cause half the Dominica's GDP and was the worst storm on the island since David.
I don't know if Dominica suffers from a similarly poor infrastructure as Haiti, but that's what it sounds like. If so, I don't think that's sufficient to warrant retirement, because you could apply that logic to literally any poor nation. If Haiti couldn't get Gordon and Hanna retired, why should Dominica get Erika?

Quoting 91. washingtonian115:
Some of the locals have voiced their opinions on the blog being grateful that Erika will not be back.

Not to be offensive or anything, but of course they're going to say that... rightfully so. But imo, retirement should have a somewhat more... objective metric. Even a tropical storm ruins people's lives, and we don't retire them willy nilly. The standard needs to be greater.
Quoting 92. Gearsts:

You will probably have a busy season imo


The last big La Nina was 2010, and the Caribbean saw a total of 7 storms and 4 hurricanes. I'm confident the Caribbean will be busy again because that's what La Nina functionally does, but we need a better steering pattern than the one in 2010 if you're actually seeking out Gulf Coast landfalls; namely, that ridge over Texas needs to be replaced with a trough.
Quoting 85. KoritheMan:



It just means more of the same; negative NAO continuing, with homegrown threats of greater concern. There's typically very little Cape Verde activity in cold AMO years.

Not that I ever really cared about those nearly as much as most people on this blog do, because you can almost bet on a recurvature. It's two weeks from Africa to the US.
Ok sensei. Thank you. :)
Quoting 95. KoritheMan:



The last big La Nina was 2010, and the Caribbean saw a total of 7 storms and 4 hurricanes. I'm confident the Caribbean will be busy again because that's what La Nina functionally does, but we need a better steering pattern than the one in 2010 if you're actually seeking out Gulf Coast landfalls. Namely, that ridge over Texas needs to be replaced with a trough.


There was a rather severe drought over Texas in 2010-11, whereas this year we're seeing Texas getting deluged with rain, so at the very least storms won't evaporate when they approach the Gulf Coast like in 2010-11.
Oh, no!


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE FIRST IN THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EXPANDING EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS SHOULD FORM AND MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION.
RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES SHOULD BE COMMON WITH SOME AREAS SEEING
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES. IN ADDITION A SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH
THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. WITH THE GROUND
BEING SATURATED A GREATER THREAT FOR TREES TOPPLING WILL OCCUR
FROM THE GUSTY WINDS.


That could mean millions of homes in Houston and surrounding areas without power for maybe days or longer, unfortunately. Anybody have anything to say?
Quoting 98. pureet1948:

Oh, no!


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE FIRST IN THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EXPANDING EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS SHOULD FORM AND MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION.
RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES SHOULD BE COMMON WITH SOME AREAS SEEING
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES. IN ADDITION A SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH
THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. WITH THE GROUND
BEING SATURATED A GREATER THREAT FOR TREES TOPPLING WILL OCCUR
FROM THE GUSTY WINDS.


That could mean millions of homes in Houston and surrounding areas without power for maybe days or longer, unfortunately. Anybody have anything to say?



I'd be more concerned about the potential for power outages; like they said, saturated trees.
Turn this sideways and it looks like Pac-Man's eating Texas:

Quoting 98. pureet1948:

Oh, no!


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE FIRST IN THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EXPANDING EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS SHOULD FORM AND MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION.
RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES SHOULD BE COMMON WITH SOME AREAS SEEING
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES. IN ADDITION A SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH
THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. WITH THE GROUND
BEING SATURATED A GREATER THREAT FOR TREES TOPPLING WILL OCCUR
FROM THE GUSTY WINDS.


That could mean millions of homes in Houston and surrounding areas without power for maybe days or longer, unfortunately. Anybody have anything to say?



With what can only be characterized as an extreme paranoia for sever weather, may I suggest Houston may not be your best bet. I suggest you move to the Northeast. Way inland too, can never be too careful.
Quoting 99. KoritheMan:



I'd be more concerned about the potential for power outages; like they said, saturated trees.



Didn't I just say that? I AM concerned about the potential for power outages---citywide.
Quoting 102. pureet1948:




Didn't I just say that? I AM concerned about the potential for power outages---citywide.


You said it and I'm repeating it. :)
Quoting 101. DeepSeaRising:



With what can only be characterized as an extreme paranoia for sever weather, may I suggest Houston may not be your best bet. I suggest you move to the Northeast. Way inland too, can never be too careful.



I believe KoriththeMan just said my concerns for power outages are justified. If they're right, there may not be a working stop light, computer, or even a porchlight anywhere in SE Texas. To say nothing of the millions of trees that'll be lying on the ground before it's over.
Quoting 103. KoritheMan:



You said it and I'm repeating it. :)


Agree or disagree? (Y/N)
Quoting 84. KoritheMan:

Erika didn't merit retirement even slightly. What a waste.

Quoting 11. Neapolitan:

A proportional disaster--one costing 57% of the US GDP and causing the same percentage of fatalities--would come in at roughly $9.5 trillion, or roughly 80 times Katrina's tab, and leave around 132,000 Americans dead.
Quoting 104. pureet1948:




I believe KoriththeMan just said my concerns for power outages are justified. If they're right, there may not be a working stop light, computer, or even a porchlight anywhere in SE Texas. To say nothing of the millions of trees that'll be lying on the ground before it's over.



P.S. I write this not for trolling or monomania, but I know of some people who might be able to help me with getting out of Houston at the Brookwood Community. Would someone please post a hyperlink with info about them?
Quoting 76. CaneFreeCR:

Re: #59 Patrap, I wonder if the 6.8 quake half and hour ago off the coast of Mexico might pose any tsunami hazard. It's pretty shallow at 10km and depending on the direction of movement could generate a tsunami. The East Pacific Rise is a spreading center so such a quake could have a vertical component and make waves. Guess the Mexican and El Salvador coasts might see some little action.


Unlikely. According to USGS it was a 6.6, and as you noted it is not a vertical thrust fault. Not enough power, and not enough energy in the vertical to induce a tsunami of any merit.
Quoting 93. bappit:

And just think, if something like that struck the whole world it would cost 57% of US$107.5 trillion in terms of purchasing power parity which is US$61.275 trillion, or roughly 516 times Katrina's tab, and leave over three million people dead.

Now for comparison:

"Over 1 million people die from mosquito-borne diseases every year, and hundreds of millions more experience pain and suffering from illnesses transmitted by mosquitoes."

So every three years brings about 516 more deaths from mosquito borne illnesses than from Katrina. The economic costs totted up probably are not proportional because Aedes Aegypti overwhelmingly affects the poorer nations. Ergo we don't hear about it as much. Money talks. Dead people rot.


Names are retired for the destruction they cause to the relative regions they impact. Hence why the storm was retired. A storm that wrecks the equivalent of 57% of a country's GDP is pretty damn devastating for that country (not to mention all the other ancillary problems that arose in the storm's aftermath). And I'd be willing dollars to donuts that there would be very few on this blog who has any of what that kind of devastation is actually like.

From NOAA:

Whenever a hurricane has had a major impact, any country affected by the storm can request that the name of the hurricane be "retired" by agreement of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).


Perspective. We don't have a lot of it.
Quoting 94. KoritheMan:

I don't know if Dominica suffers from a similarly poor infrastructure as Haiti, but that's what it sounds like. If so, I don't think that's sufficient to warrant retirement, because you could apply that logic to literally any poor nation. If Haiti couldn't get Gordon and Hanna retired, why should Dominica get Erika?

Quoting 91. washingtonian115:
Some of the locals have voiced their opinions on the blog being grateful that Erika will not be back.

Not to be offensive or anything, but of course they're going to say that... rightfully so. But imo, retirement should have a somewhat more... objective metric. Even a tropical storm ruins people's lives, and we don't retire them willy nilly. The standard needs to be greater.


The issue with Dominica is that it's human population mostly lies downhill from hilly terrain, and the island is an extreme tropical rain forest, with higher elevations seeing an estimated 300 inches a year average and 100 inches down near coastal areas. Those rainfall totals that occurred fell on steep terrain over a short time, and that's just official rain gauges in lower terrain areas. God only knows how much topographic lift enhancement occurred in the peaks.

Don't underestimate just how severe the volume of water that occurred there on steep slopes was. Dominica isn't like Haiti, it's just it was an extreme amount of rain water flowing rapidly downhill.

For a small country, the monetary cost was down right enormous, and was extremely devastating. Sometimes I've questioned the amount of times tropical cyclones names get retired myself, as I've always felt like retiring names should be left to the worst of the worst events. Even still though, it's not up to me, and I understand why they do retire names for events like Erika too.
CitizensClimateLobby ‏@citizensclimate
Find out how you can speak up for #climate change solutions that bridge the partisan divide

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112. Tirk
Quoting 63. barbamz:

Late night hello with some "romantic" atmosphere from central European vineyards last night, lit up with candles ....


Photo: DPA (published in Spiegel). Here some more pics.

Only, it wasn't that romantic but due to the unusual (at least in times of GW) coldspell which made temps plummeting and threatening the young green of the grapes. So a lot of winegrowers (in my region, too) chose to lit up special candles in the night to raise temps a little bit.

Deep freeze: Switzerland shivers through icy night
The Local (Switzerland), Published: 28 Apr 2016 10:41 GMT 02:00
Temperatures dipped below freezing in many parts of Switzerland on Wednesday night, with the intense cold causing havoc for winegrowers. ...
The situation for grape growers is critical when the temperature falls below freezing, local winemaker Martin Donatsch told the tabloid newspaper Blick.
Donatsch was one of those to lay out frost candles on Wednesday night %u2013 a tactic which can raise ground temperatures by up to 3C. ...
Winegrowers need up to 200 candles for a hectare of grapes, but Donatsch had to make do with just 30, which he used to protect the most vulnerable part of his harvest.
With the candles, which last ten hours, coming in at 18 Swiss francs a piece, it%u2019s not a cheap exercise. ...


Burgundy hit by 'worst frost since 1981'
Chris Mercer April 28, 2016
Burgundy's worst frost in more than 30 years in some areas may have already cut the potential size of the 2016 harvest, as 'stressed' producers seek to assess damage in their vineyards. ....

Worst is over now, fortunately, and temperatures should rise to normal or even above normal the next week in central Europe ... Elsewhere folks got very different problems anyway:

Malaysia records over 700 snake bites and encounters amid El Nino heatwave
by A. Azim Idris | 28th April 2016

Thailand faces longest heatwave in 65 years
Thursday, 28 April 2016 | MYT 1:49 PM

Good night from currently red-nosed Barb (due to the cold ;-) ...

Well, yes. Nice fires. In Upper Austria a farmer light 1000 fires on about 7 acres of plantation, at 3am he needed the fire brigade
(http://ooe.orf.at/news/stories/2771375/, sorry - it's in German)

By the way: In southern Austria, the arctic weather caused approx. 170 M US$ of damage on apple, apricot, peach and berries so far. More than 80% of this year's harvest is lost.
See also http://www.thelocal.at/20160428/weather-chaos-as- austria-hit-by-april-snow

Greetings from the Alps!


if gordon was not retired in 94 for sure erica should not be eliminated from the list. \
Quoting 100. KoritheMan:

Turn this sideways and it looks like Pac-Man's eating Texas:


lol
Quoting 98. pureet1948:

Oh, no!


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE FIRST IN THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EXPANDING EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS SHOULD FORM AND MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION.
RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES SHOULD BE COMMON WITH SOME AREAS SEEING
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES. IN ADDITION A SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH
THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. WITH THE GROUND
BEING SATURATED A GREATER THREAT FOR TREES TOPPLING WILL OCCUR
FROM THE GUSTY WINDS.


That could mean millions of homes in Houston and surrounding areas without power for maybe days or longer, unfortunately. Anybody have anything to say?



Yes, you'll get some rain, gusty winds and a few trees could topple.
I was on my way home last night, spotted a funnel cloud, called the NWS, they said they didn't see anything on radar, next thing it was on the ground for a couple of minutes, caused minimal damage. EF1, this is the third tornado I've called in in my lifetime. There wasn't a watch nor warning prior, just shows tornado's can appear anywhere anytime!
looks as if venezuela is getting some well needed rain
Quoting 107. pureet1948:




P.S. I write this not for trolling or monomania, but I know of some people who might be able to help me with getting out of Houston at the Brookwood Community. Would someone please post a hyperlink with info about them?
You may want to consider relocating to a safer area. Corvallis, Oregon, perhaps?

I don't understand the indignation about retiring a name. A country was devastated; they requested it be retired; and the WMO agreed. It seems a respectful tribute to a nation's suffering, and I don't see the harm in that.

If a storm causing similar devastation was requested to be retired in the past, and the WMO rejected the request, I would think it an injustice. But as my grandmother used to say, "Two wrongs don't make a right." The WMO did the right thing this time.
There's indignation over Erika being retired? Oh, come on, folks.

It was devastating to Dominica. They requested its retirement. That's good enough for me.
121. SLU
Quoting 120. terstorm:

There's indignation over Erika being retired? Oh, come on, folks.

It was devastating to Dominica. They requested its retirement. That's good enough for me.


Yes some folks seem to believe if a storm doesn't slam into the US coastline and flatten everything in sight then its name shouldn't be retired.
wiki (even though unreliable sometimes) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Gordon_(19 94) Gordon killied over 1250 people most in Haiti and did not retired. tornadoes acc/ with him killed folks in e cen florida too.
I find this practice of retiring names a bit silly. Retiring a name does not bring back the dead, does not unwind the destruction and more importantly, does not lessen the damage of the next catastrophic storm. I’ve often heard people don’t want to be “reminded”. If a storm brought you a great loss, you’ll never forget it. Retiring the name will not help that. But that's just me, and I will never think any less of someone that disagrees.
wiki's reliability? says gordon became fully tropical as he crossed florida. that is not true. most of gordons energy when sw of Fl. was far from the center of the storm. he did not really spin up good until what was left entered the atlantic east of fl. thats when he spinned up quickly into a hurricane
Your inane comments here bring neither logic nor prose to this entry.

I suggest you focus on something you know about.

Thanx.
Quoting 122. islander101010:

wiki (even though unreliable sometimes) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Gordon_(19 94) Gordon killied over 1250 people most in Haiti and did not retired. tornadoes acc/ with him killed folks in e cen florida too.


For a name to be retired it has to be requested. The WMO doesn't retire names just because it wants to.
Quoting 125. help4u:

Climategate and now Icegate the hits keep coming!


Yes.
Be very warned.

Some of us have lived thru many retired Storms.

Myself, I experienced Betsy, Camille, Elena, Katrina, Gustav all in 48 years at the time of Gustav.
Quoting 129. Patrap:


Some of us have lived thru many retired Storms.

Myself, I experienced Betsy, Camille, Elena, Katrina, Gustav all in 48 years at the time of Gustav.


Man, tha't a lot. I bet there are hurricane hunters that have been in fewer retired names than that!
MethaneTracker.org site looks bought out and drastically changed..


On Erika's retirement..
Location and circumstance played into those storm experiences.....,I have 36 Hurricane eyewall Hours logged...at 56 years now.


Quoting 123. Greg01:

I find this practice of retiring names a bit silly. Retiring a name does not bring back the dead, does not unwind the destruction and more importantly, does not lessen the damage of the next catastrophic storm. I’ve often heard people don’t want to be “reminded”. If a storm brought you a great loss, you’ll never forget it. Retiring the name will not help that. But that's just me, and I will never think any less of someone that disagrees.
From NOAA:

"Whenever a hurricane has had a major impact, any country affected by the storm can request that the name of the hurricane be "retired" by agreement of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Retiring a name actually means that it cannot be reused for at least 10 years, to facilitate historic references, legal actions, insurance claim activities, etc. and avoid public confusion with another storm of the same name. If that happens, a like gender name is selected in English, Spanish or French for Atlantic Storms."
Quoting 125. help4u:

Climategate and now Icegate the hits keep coming!



You do remember Climategate was investigated by 8 separate committees each finding no fraud or scientific misconduct . Icegate is now a new attack on the NSIDC made up by not climate scientist and serial climate change denier Steven Goodard (a.k.a. Tony Heller) which is now spreading rapidly through the far right blogosphere. Number of things Tony Heller has gotten right over the years 0. Even Judith Curry and Anthony Watts won't touch his stuff.

You need better sources.
So, according to NOAA a retired name can be put back into play after 10 years.

(edit: someone posted the same info while I was typing)
Quoting 134. Naga5000:



You do remember Climategate was investigated by 8 separate committees each finding no fraud or scientific misconduct . Icegate is now a new attack on the NSIDC made up by not climate scientist and serial climate change denier Steven Goodard (a.k.a. Tony Heller) which is now spreading rapidly through the far right blogosphere. Number of things Tony Heller has gotten right over the years 0. Even Judith Curry and Anthony Watts won't touch his stuff.

You need better sources.


Wait wait wait, whats icegate now?
The reason why Hanna and Gordon weren't retired is because Haiti didn't request retirement.The WMO will retire a name only if the country request it.So the reason why Hanna and Gordon are still on the list is because Haiti failed on its part not the WMO.
Icegate, LoL


Some will follow phools gold when the World is warming faster than anytime in the last 12,500 years.

And after 31 straight years of continuous Warm Biased Avg Global temperatures,

even when the NOAA and other data are free to ponder and read over, they chime in for a rubes whim.

Classic denialism 101.

So whats new?
Gee, maybe try to google ice gate ?

Logic is like dat.

: P

Heres a hint, it ain't Science, or a "Science entity".

It's er, " Breitbart

Imagine dat ?

LoL


Quoting 136. VAbeachhurricanes:



Wait wait wait, whats icegate now?

You don't want to know. Delingpole and Heller tripe.
It dosen't have to be a "Hurricane" to have its name retired.

TS Allison was retired after striking Texas and Louisiana.

It remains the only Atlantic TS to have been retired.

And as far as I know, no Atlantic retired name has ever been put back onto the list.



Quoting 136. VAbeachhurricanes:



Wait wait wait, whats icegate now?


A nonsense claim that the NSIDC in conjunction with the Univeristy of Colorado Boulder is cooking data. Just another baseless claim by the usual suspects.
Quoting 141. Patrap:

It dosen't have to be a "Hurricane" to have its name retired.

TS Allison was retired after striking Texas and Louisiana.

It remains the only Atlantic TS to have been retired.

And as far as I know, no Atlantic retired name has ever been put back onto the list.






some times pat you talk about a lot of nonsense Erika now joins Allison has the olny two TS too ever be retired in the Atlantic
Quoting 118. Neapolitan:

You may want to consider relocating to a safer area. Corvallis, Oregon, perhaps?


This map intrigued me, in particular in relation to all the GREEN in the Northwest... So I dug into the map's data sources and found that they used (in part) data from Sperling's 'Best Places' (bestplaces.net) which is a popular web resource for finding the 'best place' to live in the US. Looking into 'Sperling' I found Bert Sperling (according to Wikipedia Link) who was born and raised in Brooklyn, graduated from Oregon State in 1974 and has lived in the Northern OREGON area since. BUSTED!! (obviously I am having trouble getting focused this fine Friday morning!)
145. beell
Ft Smith Base Velocity (static loop).
Maybe a brief spin up in SW AR this morning.

TVNweather ( my favorite storm chasing website ) has permanently shut down. I'm going to really miss it. :(
FYI..a storm name doesn't have to be retired to qualify as being destructive. I take that chance every hurricane season because I choose to live on the coast. Unlike others I know the consequences of it as well.

As a resident of NC living on the coast I have been through a lot of storms:
Diana
Gloria
Bertha
Fran
Bonnie
Floyd
Irene
Charley
Beryl
Sandy
Andrea
Arthur
Even Ex Nicole that dropped over 22 inches of rain on Wilmington which goes to say a storm doesn't even have to have a name to qualify as destructive


Standing in line in 98 degree weather waiting on ice and water while pregnant is no picnic. Going without power and sewage for 2 weeks in the thick of NC summer makes you appreciate the luxuries we take for granted. Having to choose between vienna sausages, sardines or Spam is one that no person should have to go through..

My fascination with hurricanes is why I discovered this blog and keep coming back to it.

Won't be long now with images of 384 hour model runs posted, its coming right at my house, should I evacuate, or this season is a bust discussions start to happen.

Soon it starts..just know someone isn't going to be lucky this time around..You perhaps?

Have a great day everyone..

Quoting 142. Naga5000:



A nonsense claim that the NSIDC in conjunction with the Univeristy of Colorado Boulder is cooking data. Just another baseless claim by the usual suspects.


It'll be 'Bleachgate', next. Someone will claim that coral reefs throughout the world aren't dying off, as claimed by 'warmists'.
@118- If anyone wants to avoid hail, western Washington would be ideal. I've seen hail as big as sea salt possibly 3 times in 20 years. There may have been smaller hail, but without an electron microscope I couldn't tell if it was virus sized, pollen sized, or cat hair width sized.
Quoting 148. yonzabam:



It'll be 'Bleachgate', next. Someone will claim that coral reefs throughout the world aren't dying off, as claimed by 'warmists'.



That's already happened on twitter from some very popular climate change denialists. The twitter Climateball™ game is strong. The only winning move is not to play.
"Sometimes" Lol at that one.
Quoting 148. yonzabam:



It'll be 'Bleachgate', next. Someone will claim that coral reefs throughout the world aren't dying off, as claimed by 'warmists'.
lol.. why don't we just take care of it all at once and have SCIENCEGATE.. (it's ALL A LIE!!)

Stock up people, before it's too late!
wash people were killed due to gordon throughout the caribean and even Fl. Haiti? maybe they dont have the time for the paperwork. they cant even feed themselves.
Thanx for the misquote David, the TBI does that as well as some others.

So yeah, thanks.

Did you ever sell that life vest too?

: )
Quoting 102. pureet1948:




Didn't I just say that? I AM concerned about the potential for power outages---citywide.

Except in Hurricanes or Ice Storms, city Wide outages are rare. Take the latest 2 rounds of storms, I lost power in both but 95% of the grid stayed up. Trees will cause local outages, inconvenient but manageable.

I would advise anyone in Houston to get a decent generator, strong enough to keep the fridge going.

Flooding is much more a concern than power outages.
One to bookmark now as the Season Approaches soon nuff.

Tropical Atlantic RECON
Let me try that again.....
In this oart of the Caribbean up until about 3-4 years ago used to get substantially more rain and storm risks the previous decade. There has been a dramatic change in the amount of cloud cover and precipitation here. Not just in total amounts but also the duration of the rain events ie rain lasting for days at a time instead of one night of heavy rain. In addition when the rain potential does arrive has shifted. During the 'wet' period festival dates were changed due to rains which now don't come at all. This 'dry' period has coincided with an obvious dramatic decline strong tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic and Caribbean...they still happen but with less frequency obviously. The incidence of cold fronts in the west Caribbean have also declined.....which is odd. I recall cold fronts when I was a kid that kicked up seas as big as hurricanes near our locations. These cold fronts also used to produce some wicked although short lived thunderstorms...I guess thats sort of what I mean....
Quoting 86. KoritheMan:



What?
Quoting 154. Patrap:

Thanx for the misquote David, the TBI does that as well as some others.

So yeah, thanks.

Did you ever sell that life vest too?

: )


nope I ended up desortying it has I did not want too put up with returns and stuff I now have a white water life jacket I post a photo of it on facebook once I get my MS 950 phone from AT&T
concerned about the potential for power outages---citywide.


Except in Hurricanes or Ice Storms, city Wide outages are rare. Take the latest 2 rounds of storms, I lost power in both but 95% of the grid stayed up. Trees will cause local outages, inconvenient but manageable.

I would advise anyone in Houston to get a decent generator, strong enough to keep the fridge going.

Flooding is much more a concern than power outages.
Quoting 139. Patrap:

Gee, maybe try to google ice gate ?

Logic is like dat.

: P

Heres a hint, it ain't Science, or a "Science entity".

It's er, " Breitbart

Imagine dat ?

LoL





Thanks as always Pat...
Quoting 129. Patrap:


Some of us have lived thru many retired Storms.

Myself, I experienced Betsy, Camille, Elena, Katrina, Gustav all in 48 years at the time of Gustav.


I experienced Alicia, Allison, Rita and Ike. Rita took 1/3 of my roof and the rain soaked interior totaled my home.
Erika clearly deserved retirement; the fact that people are debating it is mind-blowing to me. The only "debatable" retirement in the past few years IMHO was Ingrid. Honestly, i thought for sure it would be overshadowed by Manuel and would remain on the list. Ingrid's price tag was a fraction of other Mexican monsters such as Alex and Karl, who were both left on the list. I also thought in recent years Isaac and Gonzalo warranted retirement, but it is understandable that they remain. The biggest shock to me was when Emily was left on the list after 2005. Truthfully, I'm baffled as to why the hurricane is still on the list. Mexico is quite inconsistent with retirement.
Quoting 146. OnlyInBoca:

TVNweather ( my favorite storm chasing website ) has permanently shut down. I'm going to really miss it. :(

Why did it shut down?? Sorry have not been able to read blogs as of late
Good Morning Folks; pending an update Blog entry here is the Conus forecast for today and current big picture: so bumpy right now in Arkansas that the camera lens from the Satt is shaking at the end..........................................







Atlantic MDR warming up very nicely and will likely continue to do so whilst the NAO is negative:



Should continue to warm/stay warm for a while based on the NAO forecast.
Right now, on the History Channel, is a perfect explanation for everything. If the aliens had just done a better job of implanting our DNA all those years ago, none of these issues would be happening...
Quoting 156. Patrap:

One to bookmark now as the Season Approaches soon nuff.

Tropical Atlantic RECON
And i'm always the one asking for the link! Thanks
The WPC short-range forecast from early this morning (4:38 am), with a slight risk category for portions of the lower MS valley was "overrided" so to speak by SPC in their 9:00 am convective outlook (posted below) based upon the sheer/jet profile that developed later in the morning over the area (the new enhanced box noted):

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
438 AM EDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Valid 12Z Fri Apr 29 2016 - 12Z Sun May 01 2016

...There are slight risks of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern Plains into parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley...

...Heavy rain possible over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley/Western
Tennessee Valley into parts of Eastern Texas...

...Heavy rain possible over parts of the Central Plains...

...Snow over parts of the Central Rockies and Central High Plains...

A storm over Texas will slowly move northeastward to Central Plains/Middle
Mississippi Valley by Saturday evening. Showers and thunderstorms will
develop over the Southern Plains that will move eastward to the Lower
Mississippi Valley and northeastward into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and
parts of the Central/Southern Appalachians by Saturday evening. In
addition, rain will develop over parts of the Southern/Central High Plains
through Saturday. Snow will develop over parts of the Central
Rockies/High Plains also through Saturday.
171. JRRP7
Not weather related disclaimer.....Does anyone from PR have any information on possible tremors in the San Sebastian / Aguadilla area in the last hour or so? Not finding any seismo records, but a friend swears she felt it and it toppled a small tree and caused the lights to go out momentarily...
JeffMasters has created a new entry.

M 2.5 130km NNE of Vieques, Puerto Rico

@ 2016-04-29 05:56: 17

usgs.gov
Quoting 172. Greg01:

Not weather related disclaimer.....Does anyone from PR have any information on possible tremors in the San Sebastian / Aguadilla area in the last hour or so? Not finding any seismo records, but a friend swears she felt it and it toppled a small tree and caused the lights to go out momentarily...
There was a 3.6 up near the trench today, but a tremor that weak, that deep, and that far away likely wouldn't even be felt, much less have the ability to cause visible effects. Maybe something closer? Excavation? A landslide? A vehicle accident?

Quoting 122. islander101010:

wiki (even though unreliable sometimes) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Gordon_(19 94) Gordon killied over 1250 people most in Haiti and did not retired. tornadoes acc/ with him killed folks in e cen florida too.
Haitian government did nothing. Ergo, no action was taken. Seen this with Mexican storms in the past.
TIs very warm here in my neck of the woods. But of course, the actual reporting stations are right along the mighty Columbia River and get nice cool air from it, giving our region a suspiciously low high for days like today. Point in fact--the "Official" temp at PDX is now 79F, whereas here we are just five miles to the north, and it is 90.1F.


http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/g etForecast?query=pws:KWAVANCO147