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Bill Gray: A Towering Figure in Hurricane Science

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 7:46 PM GMT on April 17, 2016

Famed hurricane research William Gray passed away at his home in Fort Collins, CO, on Saturday, April 16, 2016. His death came just as colleagues were gathering in San Juan, Puerto Rico, for the American Meteorological Society’s 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, a meeting that Gray had attended regularly since the 1960s. Gray’s best-known research contribution was his founding of seasonal hurricane prediction techniques, which both emerged from and led to a growing understanding of how phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña influence the likelihood of tropical cyclones. Gray published many dozens of peer-reviewed papers, mainly in tropical meteorology. Late in his career, Gray spoke out passionately against the global consensus on climate change science, as noted in a memorial published by Colorado State University (CSU)--Gray’s professional home for more than 50 years.

Figure 1. Bill Gray. Image credit: CSU.

Drawn to hurricanes in the Windy City
As a youth in Washington, D.C., Gray aspired to become a pro baseball player. That career path was derailed by a knee injury while Gray was an undergraduate student at George Washington University. Shifting career paths and locations, Gray joined the U.S. Air Force in 1953 and spent a year studying meteorology at the University of Chicago--then one of the nation’s leading focal points for atmospheric science, a still-small but fast-growing field at the time.

After several years as an Air Force forecaster, Gray returned to Chicago, completing his master’s degree in meteorology in 1959 and his doctoral degree in geophysical sciences in 1964. Gray was introduced to tropical meteorology by his eventual advisor and mentor, Chicago professor Herbert Riehl. Gray completed his dissertation on internal stress characteristics and scales of motion within hurricanes. Data for that project came from reconnaissance flights into three 1958 hurricanes: Cleo, Daisy, and Helene. Gray himself participated in a flight into Helene.

Dr. Riehl left Chicago to found CSU’s Department of Atmospheric Science in 1960. Gray followed in 1961, remaining at CSU for his entire career. The two played a huge role in building CSU’s role--somewhat paradoxical for a campus near the Rocky Mountains--as a major center for tropical meteorology. Much like his Chicago colleague T. Theodore “Ted” Fujita (creator of the Fujita Tornado Damage Scale), Gray was first and foremost an observationalist who paid meticulous attention to data. While Fujita focused on processes within storms, Gray’s career eventually gravitated toward the larger-scale analysis of the regional and global environments that shaped hurricane activity. One of his primary insights was on the role of wind shear in controlling hurricane growth and decay. In his landmark 1968 paper “Global View of the Origins of Tropical Disturbances and Storms,” Gray published a detailed analysis of the globe’s favored regions for tropical cyclone activity, at a time when satellite imagery was in its infancy.


Figure 2. An analysis of origin points for tropical storms around the globe. Image credit: William M. Gray, “Global View of the Origins of Tropical Disturbances and Storms,” Monthly Weather Review 96, October 1968.

Developing the seasonal outlooks
It was the record-strong El Niño of 1982-83 that piqued Gray’s interest in seasonal hurricane prediction. Right from the start, the CSU forecasts were based on correlations among various factors found to be associated with Atlantic hurricane activity. Gray was the first to develop a formula that incorporated such processes into an estimate of how much activity an entire season might produce. Gray launched his technique by taking into account three factors: the quasi-biennial oscillation, the state of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and the departure from the seasonal average of sea level pressure across the Caribbean Sea. The technique gradually expanded to incorporate a wide array of other variables.

Gray’s first seasonal prediction--archived online, together with all subsequent outlooks--was published on May 24, 1984. “Until now,” he noted, “there has been no objective and skillful method for indicating whether a coming hurricane season was going to be an active one or not.” Perhaps sensing where the outlooks might lead, he added: “This paper has been prepared for the professional meteorologist, the news media, and any interested layman.” Gray issued forecasts each June and August from 1984 onward, adding April and December outlooks starting in 1995 and bringing in graduate student Phil Klotzbach in 2000. (Dr. Klotzbach became lead author of the outlooks starting in 2006.) The April 2016 outlook was released on April 14.

Despite occasional funding challenges, and questions about the value of seasonal outlooks that cannot pin down individual storms, the CSU outlooks have been a spectacular success in drawing media, public, and stakeholder attention to hurricane risk. They have also inspired more than a dozen other organizations--including NOAA--to issue similar outlooks. CSU’s June and August outlooks have demonstrated significant skill in predicting overall tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic, as measured by a blend of six indices. Their April outlooks are less skillful, but in 23 out of 33 years they accurately pegged months ahead of time whether the coming season would see above- or below-average activity. One of Gray’s biggest forecast successes was predicting--as far back as 1990--the onset of a very active era of Atlantic hurricanes that began with a bang in 1995 and which may have now drawn to a close. Gray attributed the 1990s shift to a change in the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation, a conclusion that remains somewhat controversial, although the shift itself is beyond dispute.

Much of the biographical material above was drawn from the excellent chapter-long portrait of Gray in Chris Mooney’s 2007 book “Storm World.”


Figure 3. Dr. Bill Gray at the podium of the American Meteorological Society’s 27th Conference on Tropical Meteorology, held in April 2006 in Monterey, California. Image credit: Jeff Masters.

Reflections from Dr. Jeff Masters on Bill Gray's career
I had the honor of chatting with Bill Gray a number of times at hurricane conferences, and enjoyed his colorful presentations and tremendous insight on how hurricanes work. His death is a tremendous loss for the hurricane research community, and I feel privileged to have known him. Dr. Gray's expertise was primarily data-based observational science and forecasts using statistical models. He was not a climate change specialist--though he did do some theoretical work related to climate change, attempting to link global temperature trends to the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation. This work was not highly regarded in the scientific community. Dr. Gray did not accept any climate science done using complex computer-based General Circulation Models (GCMs). His belief that "the last century’s global warming of about 1 degree F is not a consequence of human activities" was prominently featured in the media and on the pages of many climate denier websites.

That aside, Dr. Gray's contributions to hurricane science deserve tremendous appreciation. In addition to his huge number of peer-reviewed scientific papers on hurricanes, he has given the hurricane science community perhaps an even greater gift: a plethora of his Ph.D. students have gone on to become formidable hurricane researchers in their own right. Dr. Gray mentored more than 70 master's and doctoral students at CSU. His final graduate student was Phil Klotzbach, who wrote a moving eulogy that highlighted Dr. Gray’s passion and dedication to atmospheric science:

“Even at the end, Dr. Gray was focused on his research. He gave me very clear instructions on various projects I should be conducting over the next few years. He was still sketching clouds using his legal pad and #2 pencils and discussing the intricacies of cumulus convection when I came to see him a few days before his death. He told me several times throughout my time at CSU: ‘The only immortality that you have as a professor is through your graduate students.’”

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters


Figure 4. Dr. William Gray (second from left) at his CSU office in October 2006 with Jonathan Vigh [left], a CSU student of Dr. Wayne Schubert and now at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and (second from right) Phil Klotzbach (CSU). At far right is Brian McNoldy (University of Miami/RSMAS), who was a close colleague of Dr. Gray’s during his 14 years at CSU. Image credit: Courtesy Brian McNoldy.

Hurricane William Gray Tropical Meteorology

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Dr. Gray was certainly a central figure in the study of hurricanes. RIP, Gray.



Fantala's inner core structure is excellent and without much signs of weakening.



Meanwhile, SwirlWatch 2016 is eyeballing a late-season extratropical storm near Bermuda that probably won't do anything significant in particular at the moment but is an interesting swirl to look at:

RIP Dr. Bill Gray. He will be missed.
The death of Dr. William Gray is a loss for all of America and tropical meteorology especially.

His was a life well lived.

We send our thoughts and prayers to His family and friends.


Quoting 1. Hurricane1216:

Dr. Gray was certainly a central figure in the study of hurricanes. RIP, Gray.



Fantala's inner core structure is excellent and without much signs of weakening.



Meanwhile, SwirlWatch 2016 is eyeballing a late-season extratropical storm near Bermuda that probably won't do anything significant in particular at the moment but is an interesting swirl to look at:




Hurricane Bonnie ?
Balcones Escarpment
Tends to increase rainfall near and along it with a southerly flow.


Big model bust :(

WHILE SOME SHOWERS MAY ACTUALLY MATERIALIZE OFFSHORE TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO EARLY MONDAY MORNING RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL HARDLY BE ENOUGH TO CREATE FLOODING SO EARLY.
THEN...LATER...CLOUDS WILL BLOCK MUCH OF THE SUNLIGHT NECESSARY TO
CREATE LOCAL INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MEANING THAT VERY
HEAVY SHOWERS NECESSARY FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING MAY ONLY BE
ISOLATED OCCURRENCES NOT CAPABLE OF DOING MORE THAN CREATING URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN LOCALIZED INTERIOR AREAS.

ALSO THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE FOLLOWING A SIMILAR FORECASTING
TREND. THIS MODEL HAS TONED DOWN RAIN AMOUNTS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AND SHIFTED THEM SOUTH OF SAINT CROIX.
Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Fantala becomes the STRONGEST tropical cyclone in the Indian Ocean by wind speed (1 min sustained and 10 min).

19S FANTALA
As of 18:00 UTC Apr 17, 2016:

Location: 9.8°S 50.8°E
Maximum Winds: 150 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 911 mb

Nearly same as Katrina. 175 mph - pressure 910 mbar.

Records: 175 mph 1-min sustained winds (Tied with Daryl-Agnielle 1995)
155 mph 10-min sustained winds (2º globally - Tied with Monica and Pam, only behind of Tip)
6th most intense tropical cyclone in the South-West Indian Ocean Season).





Dr. Gray's many contributions to tropical meteorology and the many young people he mentored over the years--70 masters and doctoral students at CSU!--will continue to shed helpful light on this complex subject for decades to come. Thank you, Dr. Gray.
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27
Hurricane Warning
CYCLONE TROPICAL TRES INTENSE FANTALA (08-20152016)
22:00 PM RET April 17 2016
====================================

Fantala made history (the southwest Indian Ocean) this evening. The satellite presentation was at 7.5 from 1300 UTC to 1700 UTC (MET-7 imagery) and at 7.0 since 1730 UTC. 3 hour mean raw DT is at 7.5 at 1600 UTC and 1630 UTC. The cloud pattern is impressive with a well defined eye embedded within an increasingly symmetric cold cloud mass. Near 1500 UTC, the eye of Fantala passed directly over the main islands of Farquahr ..currently the eyewall is passing just off the southwestern coasts of Cerf and Saint-Pierre islands located to the north of the main islands Farquahr.
Thanks for the obituary for Dr. Gray. Certainly a loss. But good to see he could draw young scientist into hurricane research.

Fantala: Looks like smashing records became a bad habit of tropical cyclones lately. Here the recent development of its amazing eyewall. I fear the worst for those tiny, tiny islands (not shown on the map) under this ravage:




Save to say: this is a pinhole eye? ;-)

from last blog
TWC got some amazing pics of Fantala (here):

   Thanks for the Great Post Gentlemen, RIP Dr. Gray.....
Thanks Doc..even after a debilitating stroke, Dr. Gray was still very active with research and forecasting...To me that shows heart, strength, and determination.
Hard to keep up with all the weather induced catastrophies currently. El Nino doesn't leave without a bang.

3 Million people in Chile capital without drinking water
Published April 16, 2016EFE
Three million people living Santiago out of a total 6.2 million inhabitants were left without drinking water starting noon Saturday due to the "extreme turbidity" of the Maipo and Mapocho Rivers that supply the city, following the bad weather affecting the central part of the country.
Because of that problem, the Metropolitan Administration decreed a "red alert" for the greater Santiago area. ...



Rio Maipo today.

Aerial view of Rio Mapocho.

Meanwhile relentless storms and rains in Uruguay caused three deaths due to flooding (four died earlier due to the fierce tornado) and more than 2000 people were evacuated or left their homes by their own. Here an article in Spanish.
Quoting 13. JRRP7:

from last blog



19. IDTH
Quoting 18. wunderkidcayman:




what are u seeing here
I remember the speech from the 2004 hurricane conference when Mr.Gray said that "A lot of trouble is on the way" for Florida.Low and behold they see 4 hurricanes that year.Its good to read that Mr.Gray also has local roots! His work will live on long after his passing.
Quoting 5. Sfloridacat5:

Balcones Escarpment
Tends to increase rainfall near and along it with a southerly flow.





A convectively-enhanced outflow boundary from the morning activity in place for most of the day didn't hurt either.





MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0123
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
120 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 171715Z - 172315Z

SUMMARY...SLOW-MOVING HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH REPEATING CELLS AND CELL-MERGERS LIKELY. CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...MOIST AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO CONVERGE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX AND TOWARD WHAT HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT AXIS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLDER CONVECTIVE TOPS OVER THE LAST HOUR HAVE BEEN GENERALLY SOUTH OF DALLAS DOWN TOWARD THE WACO AND GATESVILLE AREA. ADDITIONAL CELLS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING JUST SOUTHEAST OF AUSTIN WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF ADDED BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THE BROAD AND DEEPER LAYER SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX.

OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THERE WILL BE STRONG CONCERNS FOR SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS AS INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING/SOLAR INSOLATION AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION HELPS DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FURTHER. THIS IS SUGGESTED IN THE LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE CU/TCU FIELD SURGING NORTH TO NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS ALONG WITH A NUMBER OF CLOUD STREETS. THIS WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO FOCUS ALONG A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND ALSO IN A SOMEWHAT ELEVATED FASHION OVER A WELL-DEFINED COLD POOL OVER CENTRAL TX.

THE HIRES GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TERRIBLE IN ACCURATELY DEPICTING THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TODAY ACROSS THE REGION...BUT RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR/HRRX ARE SUGGESTING SOME IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE RAINS DEVELOPING NEAR THE CURRENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE 15Z HRRR-TLE INDICATES HIGH PROBABILITIES OF OVER 6 INCHES IN 6 HOURS GENERALLY WITHIN A LINE FROM WACO TO AUSTIN TO LLANO.

PWATS ARE GENERALLY CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES NOW ACROSS THIS REGION...AND WITH RATHER STRONG SBCAPE VALUES SETTING UP SOUTH F AUSTIN...CONVECTION SHOULD TEND TO INTENSIFY WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A LIKELIHOOD OF CELL-MERGERS...AND THIS WILL ENHANCE THE RATES FURTHER.

EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS TO BE AS MUCH AS 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS PERHAPS APPROACHING 8 INCHES WHERE CELL-MERGERS AND REPEATING CELLS OCCUR. THE MEAN FLOW IS NOT VERY KEEN ON A STRONG SOUTHEAST PUSH THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT NUMEROUS REPEATING CELLS TO FOSTER HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS WITH AN ENHANCED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

ORRISON
Quoting 21. washingtonian115:

I remember the speech from the 2004 hurricane conference when Mr.Gray said that "A lot of trouble is on the way" for Florida.Low and behold they see 4 hurricanes that year.Its good to read that Mr.Gray also has local roots! His work will live on long after his passing.


From Wiki...

CSU released its first prediction on December 5, 2003, which projected an above average season, with 13 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.[5] This forecast was adjusted upward slightly on April 2.[6] On May 17, prior to the start of the season, NOAA forecasters predicted a 50% probability of activity above the normal range, with twelve to fifteen tropical storms, six to eight of those becoming hurricanes, and two to four those hurricanes reaching major intensity.[7] Dr. Gray released a prediction on May 28 that was similar, with 14 named storms, eight reaching hurricane strength, and three becoming major hurricanes.[8]

After the season began, Dr. Gray announced he had revised his predictions slightly downwards on August 6, citing mild El Niño conditions. His new forecast was thirteen named storms, seven hurricanes, and three reaching major hurricane intensity.[9] On August 10, NOAA released an updated prediction as well, with a 90% probability of above-to-near normal activity, but the same number of storms forecast.[10] CSU issued another forecast on September 3, indicating sixteen tropical storms, eight hurricanes, and five major hurricanes.[11] The season ended up with sixteen tropical depressions, fifteen named storms, nine hurricanes, and six major hurricanes,[12] which matched CSU's final prediction on October 1.[13]

Link
23. GeoffreyWPB
6:33 PM EDT on April 17, 2016
In that conference where I got the quote from he was talking specifically about the steering pattern.
Snow all gone for Keep?
Fantala Rainbow Image




CIMSS ADT HTML 5 Movie,click image for loop

Enjoy the rest of the Day fellow wunderbloggers.... I went for a short walk earlier. What a great day. 53F - I love walking without sweating.

 



Orleans Severe Watches & Warnings

NOAA Weather Radio

Watches & WarningsCoastal Flood WarningIssued: 3:49 PM CDT Apr. 17, 2016 – National Weather Service

... Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect until 7 PM CDT
Monday...

* coastal flooding... Hancock County Mississippi coast and east
facing shores of southeast Louisiana extending from the Pearl
River to the Mississippi River... including areas surrounding
lakes Pontchartrain and Maurepas. Areas within Lake
Pontchartrain will likely see the most inundation as water
continues to push in with strong east winds at 20 to 25 knots. 

* Timing... now through Monday evening.

* Impacts... tides around 3 feet above normal will lead to
inundation of low lying coastal roadways and areas not
typically subject to coastal flooding during high tides
outside protection levees.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A coastal Flood Warning means that flooding is occurring or
imminent. Coastal residents in the warned area should be alert
for rising water... and take appropriate action to protect life
and property.

Quoting 23. GeoffreyWPB:



From Wiki...

CSU released its first prediction on December 5, 2003, which projected an above average season, with 13 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.[5] This forecast was adjusted upward slightly on April 2.[6] On May 17, prior to the start of the season, NOAA forecasters predicted a 50% probability of activity above the normal range, with twelve to fifteen tropical storms, six to eight of those becoming hurricanes, and two to four those hurricanes reaching major intensity.[7] Dr. Gray released a prediction on May 28 that was similar, with 14 named storms, eight reaching hurricane strength, and three becoming major hurricanes.[8]

After the season began, Dr. Gray announced he had revised his predictions slightly downwards on August 6, citing mild El Niño conditions. His new forecast was thirteen named storms, seven hurricanes, and three reaching major hurricane intensity.[9] On August 10, NOAA released an updated prediction as well, with a 90% probability of above-to-near normal activity, but the same number of storms forecast.[10] CSU issued another forecast on September 3, indicating sixteen tropical storms, eight hurricanes, and five major hurricanes.[11] The season ended up with sixteen tropical depressions, fifteen named storms, nine hurricanes, and six major hurricanes,[12] which matched CSU's final prediction on October 1.[13]

Link


I'll make sure to update my hurricane forecast in September and then again in October. Why not just wait until the season is over and make your prediction?
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
FLASH FLOOD WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 639 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
TORNADO WARNING     CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 637 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 629 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016

Quoting 28. Dakster:

Enjoy the rest of the Day fellow wunderbloggers.... I went for a short walk earlier. What a great day. 53F - I love walking without sweating.
86 here today, but it is a Dry 86(rh7%)

Dallas Severe Watches & WarningsNOAA Weather Radio

Watches & WarningsFlood WarningIssued: 4:53 PM CDT Apr. 17, 2016 – National Weather Service

The Flood Warning continues for
the Trinity River at Dallas.
* At 400 PM Sunday the stage was 29.22 feet.
* Flood stage is 30 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast... the river is expected to rise above flood stage this
evening and crest near 36 feet around midday Monday. The river will
then begin a slow fall Monday afternoon.
* At 35 feet, some low water crossings are inundated with cattle and
grazing and low water areas under water.

Flash Flood WatchIssued: 1:27 PM CDT Apr. 17, 2016 – National Weather Service

... Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Tuesday morning...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* all of north and central Texas.

* Through Tuesday morning.

* Reason... thunderstorms with heavy rain may train over the same
areas throughout the period.

* Timing... rain and thunderstorms will continue through late
Monday night with the heaviest rains expected through tonight.
Lingering showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible
through the week.

Precautionary/preparedness actions... 

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions are favorable for heavy
rain which may lead to flash flooding. You should monitor the
latest forecasts from the National Weather Service and be
prepared to take action should flash flood warnings be issued for
your area.

58
Ft. Worth,Texas WFO Imagery

Rainbow Enhanced Overlay Loop

click image for loop



Rescuers dig for victims after Ecuador quake kills 235

REPORT from Agence France-Presse Published on 17 Apr 2016


Portoviejo, Ecuador | AFP | Sunday 4/17/2016 - 21:35 GMT

by Santiago PIEDRA SILVA

Rescuers in Ecuador raced to dig out victims trapped under the rubble of homes and hotels on Sunday after a powerful 7.8-magnitude earthquake killed at least 235.

The quake wrecked buildings, toppled power lines and sent terrified residents running from their homes when it struck the Pacific coast Saturday in a zone popular with tourists.

Vice President Jorge Glas called it the "worst seismic movement we have faced in decades." In a news conference on Sunday he raised the toll to 235 killed and 1,557 injured.

The quake, felt across Ecuador, northern Peru and southern Colombia, struck at 6:58 local time Saturday evening (2358 GMT) and lasted about a minute.

It was centered around 170 kilometers (106 miles) northwest of the capital Quito, the US Geological Survey (USGS) said, measuring the magnitude at 7.8.

Among the worst-hit towns was the Pedernales, where mayor Gabriel Alcivar estimated there were up to 400 more dead yet to be confirmed, many under the rubble of some 40 hotels that collapsed.

"Pedernales is devastated. Buildings have fallen down, especially hotels where there are lots of tourists staying. There are lots of dead bodies," he told local media.

"We need help. We need medicine, water and food to help people."

Two Canadians were among those killed by the quake, their country's government told AFP.

'God protected us' -

Around the town of Portoviejo, the quake reduced houses to rubble, brought down a market and left streetlights and debris scattered.
Hairdresser Fernando Chavez, 45, was in his home at the back of his salon with his wife and three children, when the ceiling was crushed by rubble from a neighboring building.

The family was trapped in the dark among the debris for 10 minutes before they managed to get out. He said it was a "miracle" they survived.

"The cloak of God protected us," he said.

Glas said 14,000 security forces, 241 medical staff and two mobile hospitals were being rushed to the most devastated areas, with reinforcements arriving from Colombia and Mexico.

In the town of Abdon Calderon near Portoviejo, 73-year-old resident Nelly, who would not give her last name, told AFP in tears that she rushed into the street after the quake and saw that the covered market had collapsed.

"There was a person trapped who screamed for help, but then the screaming stopped. Oh, it was terrible," she said.

Ecuador's Geophysical Office reported "considerable" structural damage as far away as Guayaquil, Ecuador's biggest city with more than two million people.

Earthquake zone -
Ecuador lies near a shifting boundary between plates of the earth's crust. It has suffered seven earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher in the region of Saturday's quake since 1900, the USGS said. One in March 1987 killed about 1,000 people, it said.

David Rothery, a professor of geosciences at Britain's Open University, said the quake's 7.8 magnitude meant that "the total energy involved was probably about 20 times greater" than the magnitude 7.0 earthquake that killed at least 41 people in southern Japan on Saturday.

He said there was no causal link between the two quakes.

'Severe damage' -
Miriam Santana, a 40-year-old resident of the western Ecuadoran city of Manta, said locals were in a state of "total desperation."

"It was as if the world was about to end," she told AFP by phone.

Authorities closed the city's airport, saying the control tower suffered "severe damage."

In the north of the capital Quito, people ran out of their homes in terror as power lines swayed back and forth, knocking out power to some areas.

President Rafael Correa, who was on a visit to the Vatican when the quake struck, called for "calm and unity" in a phone interview with Radio Publica.

Pope Francis urged prayers for the victims.

US Secretary of State John Kerry and EU chief diplomat Federica Mogherini expressed condolences and said they were ready to help.

The Red Cross said hundreds of its volunteers were joining in the search for survivors.

"In the coming days, we can expect acute health needs around trauma care and psychosocial support," said Walter Cotte, the Americas Regional Director for the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, in a statement.

"There may also be urgent needs around maternal and obstetric care. We should also have to expect urgent needs around food, water, sanitation and shelter."

Correa said on Twitter he would visit the stricken port city on Manta on Sunday evening.

bur-sp/rlp/mdl

© 1994-2016 Agence France-Presse

Quoting 20. ackee:

what are u seeing here
Basically vertical instability in the caribbean is now slightly above average and in the tropical atlantic vertical instability is headed to normal levels.If things continue on this route storms may not have to struggle with the same dry environment like they have in years past.
39. SLU
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

The same crew screaming Texas perma drought a few years ago will now blame their bust on global warming and play the flood card.
Quoting 38. washingtonian115:

Basically vertical instability in the caribbean is now slightly above average and in the tropical atlantic vertical instability is headed to normal levels.If things continue on this route storms may not have to struggle with the same dry environment like they have in years past.

I know Gearsts believes that vertical instability will be what kills the Atlantic hurricane season, but I don't think so. It is trending upwards and I think with La Nina it will be at least near normal this year.
A couple hours old, but this microwave pass of Fantala is one of the most impressive I've seen. This is the type of core typically associated with the most intense tropical cyclones- compact, symmetric, and extremely intense. Great outflow as well. Also, no sign of concentric eyewalls (no impending EWRC) so it'll probably maintain this intensity or close to it for awhile before it hooks back towards higher shear and somewhat cooler waters over the next couple days.



Not hard to see how it's doing so well, with warm SSTs combined with very little shear.

Quoting 39. SLU:

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

The same crew screaming Texas perma drought a few years ago will now blame their bust on global warming and play the flood card.
Arguments starting in 1....2....3....It is a sunday night and not many members are on right now.
Quoting 38. washingtonian115:

Basically vertical instability in the caribbean is now slightly above average and in the tropical atlantic vertical instability is headed to normal levels.If things continue on this route storms may not have to struggle with the same dry environment like they have in years past. Thanks
Quoting 39. SLU:

Joe Bastardi %u200F@BigJoeBastardi

The same crew screaming Texas perma drought a few years ago will now blame their bust on global warming and play the flood card.


As much as I love the JB twitter bot you've become, reposting JB's straw man arguments is one of the sillier things I have seen. If you are going to post his tweets, at least attempt to get the facts right, ONE paper predicted a permanent southwest drought by 2050. On the other hand, JB denies the physical properties of Co2. I think listening to JB on matters of climate science is one of the biggest mistakes one can make, and retweet.
Wow ....finally starting to really come down here
Complete with thunder and lightening
Loving it!
Love a good rainstorm
Definitely will be at home tomorrow
I wonder which basin in the NHem will get the next storm. The WPac has been unusually quiet so far this year, with no storms forming. The CPac and Atlantic already have one hurricane each (Pali and Alex) and both occurred in JANUARY.
Record Balkan floods linked to jamming of giant airstreams

Date:
April 16, 2016
Source:
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Summary:
Disastrous floods in the Balkans two years ago are likely linked to the temporary slowdown of giant airstreams, scientists found. These wind patterns, circling the globe in the form of huge waves between the Equator and the North Pole, normally move eastwards, but practically stopped for several days then -- at the same time, a weather system got stuck over Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia and Croatia that poured out record amounts of rain.

Link
Dead until 55W...
The WPac has been unusually quiet so far this year


nah, the season is suppose to start in May every year anyway. =P
Powerful Category 5 Tropical Cyclone Fantala Near Madagascar This Evening

Intense and powerful tropical cyclone Fantala is churning northwestward this evening in the southwest Indian Ocean with maximum sustained winds of 175 mph… according to the latest data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. ............... The incredible image below is from NOAA/NASA showing the eye of the storm at around 5:57am our time (EDT) this morning.

Link
Gusts to 207 mph

Quoting 49. Gearsts:

Dead until 55W...



At least you can see that warm patch over Gran Canaria, that could go down eventually, SST in the Tropical Atlantic are very problematic to predict.

It doesn't look bad.

Quoting 26. Dakster:

Snow all gone for Keep?
yes we broke 70 today tomorrow may hit 75
Quoting 52. RobertWC:

Gusts to 207 mph


ok fantala nice show you can spin down now
Quoting 41. MAweatherboy1:

A couple hours old, but this microwave pass of Fantala is one of the most impressive I've seen. This is the type of core typically associated with the most intense tropical cyclones- compact, symmetric, and extremely intense. Great outflow as well. Also, no sign of concentric eyewalls (no impending EWRC) so it'll probably maintain this intensity or close to it for awhile before it hooks back towards higher shear and somewhat cooler waters over the next couple days.



Not hard to see how it's doing so well, with warm SSTs combined with very little shear.



The 0126z microwave pass shows quite a change in just 4 hours, with a strong signal for an impending eyewall replacement cycle.

Ocean temperatures are warm, but heat content is around 35 units. I'd assess Fantala around 160kt right now, but something tells me we're not going to see the storm maintain much longer. Upwelling and EWRCs are killers.

Quoting 39. SLU:

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

The same crew screaming Texas perma drought a few years ago will now blame their bust on global warming and play the flood card.

JB is a tool of the climate denial machine, Heartland Institute presenter, Fox News "climate expert" etc. He is the most consistently wrong long-range forecaster. Needless to say, reality and Joe are not friends. I'm not sure whether that's mostly due to the money or the publicity. He is the worst kind of denier, a willful misinformer who should know better since he at least has a bachelors degree in meteorology.
Quoting 46. justmehouston:

Wow ....finally starting to really come down here
Complete with thunder and lightening
Loving it!
Love a good rainstorm
Definitely will be at home tomorrow






Hm. GFS seems to have backed off a little bit from the huge deluge it promised in earlier runs. Do you have power? I do, knock on wood.
There's a pretty serious flash flooding event ongoing in Texas right now. The upper level system that produced the severe weather in Western Texas and Oklahoma has slowly shifted east. While severe weather was not as widespread yesterday, nor will it be today, heavy rain is a major concern. There is enough instability for severe weather as well.

A MCS is currently stretched from the Houston area up to the Dallas area, producing very heavy rainfall rates. Other areas of moderate to heavy rain stretch all the way up to the Canadian border. A large trough is located over the West, with multiple shortwaves rotating around it. Eastern Texas sits in a favorable area for deep, large-scale ascent. Strong surface convergence, MLCAPE values of 250-1000J/kg, MUCAPE values of at least 1000J/kg, and the aforementioned ascent is allowing for the continued growth and development of convection. The lack of strong winds aloft and the slow movement of the trough has meant that convection is very slow moving. This in itself is a bad situation, but combined with the amount of moisture available, widespread flash flooding is likely. Surface winds of 10-15kts out of the ESE and 850mb winds of 35-45kts out of the SE are advecting very warm and moist air into a stalled frontal system. PWAT values range from 1.6" to 1.8" over the MCS and 850mb transport is very strong per SPC mesoanalysis. As if the situation could not get much worse, a MCV is enhancing convection just to the NW of Houston. From my personal experience with the Detroit flood, MCV's enhancing rainfall events like this can really heighten rainfall amounts. It is for this reason that the WPC has highlighted areas near and to the north of Houston in a life-threatning flood risk. High resolution models indicate another 5-10"+ of rainfall over some of these areas, with widespread amounts of 1-3". Flash flood watches and warnings are in effect across Eastern Texas, and as the event goes on only more headlines will be issued. The only good news about this rainfall, and this is more applicable for areas across Oklahoma and Kansas, is that it is helping out with the drought developing. This system, and the next few that may eventually follow it, will help to lessen the drought worries and the fire danger. It would also increase moisture quality and transport for any severe weather events that impact the area, favorable for chasers and severe weather enthusiasts. This is certainly a situation that will continue to have to be monitored with it being a high-impact event.
Houston Area Radar

Here's a radar loop from the Houston area and the WPC discussion image regarding the flooding.


Collection of terrifying close videos of the deadly Uruguay tornado (in Dolores, April 15).

One dead, seven missing after storms wreak havoc in central Chile
Source: Reuters - Sun, 17 Apr 2016 23:21 GMT


Fantala today. Unbelievable. And here the latest development seen by Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS .

Best morning wishes from sunny Germany ... I see strong rains in Texas and still ongoing downpours in Uruguay ...

65. vis0
Apology to the blogbytes subject but these errors get one in trouble
Patrap i sent a message to help BUT the title i sent was changed to "POST, Moron" (this was one of the reasons i stopped using WxU i create a title and after clicking send the title its changed or NO SUBJECT WT*BLEEP*,  years ago i was reply to as being the moron when asking why this happens.  WxU mail selects past msgs and random;ly places it on the new sent msg.  APOLOGY for the title Patrap.

My title had to do with correcting margin errors.
Apology to the blogbytes subject but these errors get one in trouble
Wow - this is where my sister lives

04/18/2016 0510 am

4 miles WNW of Jersey villa, Harris County.

Flash flood, reported by broadcast media.


Rain Guage near the intersection of huffmiester and
Highway 6 north has surpassed more than 20 inches. The
copper Grove subdivision has high thigh deep water in
the roads with water up to the side windows of many
vehicles.
Allison like rain here in Houston
Some areas of town have gotten 20" of rain. I've had 6" so far

Edit @ 5:55 am. 24 hour rain total for me is 7.7"

Rain rates are 2" hour. Storm is stalling over Houston now
Everything is closing here
Quoting 60. VibrantPlanet:


JB is a tool of the climate denial machine, Heartland Institute presenter, Fox News "climate expert" etc. He is the most consistently wrong long-range forecaster. Needless to say, reality and Joe are not friends. I'm not sure whether that's mostly due to the money or the publicity. He is the worst kind of denier, a willful misinformer who should know better since he at least has a bachelors degree in meteorology.


Why does the guy get so much attention on here?

Harris County, TX Flood Control District-Rainfall
(click for larger image)

12 hr totals



MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0128
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
459 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TEXAS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 180900Z - 181500Z

SUMMARY...ONGOING LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EVENT OVER SE TEXAS TO CONTINUE WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 3-4"/HR AND ADDITIONAL 4-8" 6HR TOTALS PSBL.

DISCUSSION...MATURE MCS WAS DRIVING EXTREME RAIN RATES BETWEEN AUSTIN AND HOUSTON. THIS MCS WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL OVERTAKEN FROM THE WEST AFTER 15Z...

WV LOOP INDICATES A WEAK DARKENING SHIFTING ENE ACROSS NUEVO LEON AND IS AN INDICATOR OF SHORTWAVE FORCING COMING THROUGH THE RIO GRADE VALLEY. MOISTURE POOLED WITHIN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH TPWS TO 1.5" WITH SURFACE NELY/ELY FLOW DUE TO ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT OVER THE HIGH SIERRA MADRE...IS PROVIDING STRONG MST CONVERGENCE TO INITIATE/MAINTAIN CONVECTION. AS THE S/W PASSES...SPEED MAX MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROF OVER BY 09-10Z WITH 3H WINDS INCREASING FROM 40 TO 70 KTS LEAVING EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FOR THE SCATTERED CONVECTION TO GROW UPSCALE. CAMS PARTICULARLY THE NSSL-WRF AND SPC-WRF INDICATE THIS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/PVA WILL SUFFICE THOUGH LOW LEVEL FORCING BECOMES DECOUPLED WHILE THE COMPLEX MOVES EAST...AS SUCH CONVECTION WITH RATES UP TO 2.0"/HR HAVE A SHORT WINDOW AS THE COMPLEX DEVELOPS IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS WITHIN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IN HOW WELL THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAINTAINS RAINFALL EFFICIENCY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE SAN ANTONIO VICINITY IS LOW GIVEN THE LIMITED LL MST FLUX/JET SUPPORT UNTIL ABOUT 98W.

FURTHER EAST...SOUTHERLY LLJ PARALLEL TO THE SOUTH TX COAST IS CONFLUENT WITH DEEP SELY CHANNEL OF RETURN FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN/EASTERN GULF...PROVIDING STRONG DEEP MST CONVERGENCE/FLUX TOWARD THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT NEAR AUS/BAZ. THIS SUPPORTS CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX...PRIMARILY ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF I-10 TOWARD THE MCV NEAR POLK COUNTY. CLOUD BEARING FLOW IS GENERALLY EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR MERGERS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LINE MAKING RAIN RATES GREATER THAN 4"/HR. THIS IS CONCURRENT WITH 20 KT SFC AND 40KT 850MB ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FLUX TO THE STATIONARY LINE FROM COLORADO COUNTY TO MONTGOMERY COUNTY. LOCALLY AN ADDITIONAL 4-8" CAN BE EXPECTED AND IN SOME CASES THIS WILL LEAD TO EVENT TOTAL IN EXCESS OF 12". THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IN SUCH A SHORT TIME REPRESENTS A PARTICULARLY LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. GALLINA
Please keep all of the first responders and essential personnel (doctors, nurses, etc) that are dealing with this PDS flooding event in the Houston area. We don't have a choice to stay in - we have to go help those that can't help themselves.
Quoting 64. barbamz:


Fantala today. Unbelievable.


Hm.
You take the most bullish model output and add three categories. So I expected Fantala to hit cat. 5 by Thursday last week.

After the general repetitions of which Patricia was also one, I guess Miami is well prepared for the 860 hPa hit coming season.
Quoting 72. jeffs713:

Please keep all of the first responders and essential personnel (doctors, nurses, etc) that are dealing with this PDS flooding event in the Houston area. We don't have a choice to stay in - we have to go help those that can't help themselves.


Amen to this post.Seriously, STAY OFF the streets, Everything is closed, all schools, all courts, businesses.
Please. stay in side and ride it out. There have already been hundreds of high water rescues
Unbelievable situation going on in the Houston area. Some of these totals are surpassing Tropical Storm Allison type rains. DO NOT LEAVE YOUR HOUSE IF YOU DO NOT HAVE TO.
76. SLU
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi · 5m5 minutes ago

As floods similar in cause to major 07 Texas situation rage, r there any brave journalists asking perma drought dust bowlers what happened
Quoting 61. pureet1948:







Hm. GFS seems to have backed off a little bit from the huge deluge it promised in earlier runs. Do you have power? I do, knock on wood.


Well Pureet, now you had some weather. Not a complete disaster, but some serious weather. Give a local report.
dr grey was warning that one day a big and major hurricane would come ashore in a big metro area. sandy was close enough to his nightmare
Quoting 76. SLU:

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi · 5m5 minutes ago

As floods similar in cause to major 07 Texas situation rage, r there any brave journalists asking perma drought dust bowlers what happened


Very silly indeed. What a fraud.
it was really bad about an hour ago. Incredible lightning, rain and hail in kingwood, tx. Local reports from friends in the area of wind damage, possible tornado damage. Right now in the lull, but the radar shows another round heading for the downtown houston area. Lots of power outages, i have power but it did flicker several times.

Local mets are comparing this to TS Allison, and the memorial day storms from last year.
Reports of up to 20" of rain in Harris and Waller counties. Houston IAH reporting 9"
80 or so water rescues ongoing, 40 neighborhoods.... (not just 40 homes) flooded, bayous overflowing banks, Metro shutdown, everything coming to a standstill this morning.

My area near NWS hasn't had but 0.03" but my time is running out now as the heavy rains are knocking down the door few miles from me now.

82. vis0
Hope this is not inappropriate but for my slow connection i prefer these pages if i want to see superimposed radar and maps

LINKS LEAD TO WicxkedWx WARNING pages NOT OFFICIAL NOAA though its comes from NOAA.NWS. Its very easy to see each warning just scroll MAKE SURE there are no image blockers ON.

Line colourings are used to better follow the TEXT not as to importance of one waning over another.
Vist NWS, wundegrounds (couldn't get link) watches & warnings for the latest.
 FLASH FLOOD WARNING HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX - KHGX 705 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 652 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX - KHGX 630 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 619 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 604 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX - KHGX 557 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
TORNADO WARNING     HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX - KHGX 539 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX - KHGX 517 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
TORNADO WARNING    
HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX - KHGX 452 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX - KHGX 439 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX - KHGX 439 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 431 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 417 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 411 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
Quoting 60. VibrantPlanet:


JB is a tool of the climate denial machine, Heartland Institute presenter, Fox News "climate expert" etc. He is the most consistently wrong long-range forecaster. Needless to say, reality and Joe are not friends. I'm not sure whether that's mostly due to the money or the publicity. He is the worst kind of denier, a willful misinformer who should know better since he at least has a bachelors degree in meteorology.

Why bash someone you don't even know? It would be funny if what he states turns out to be true, and you won't have to wait long to see if his predictions are right, or wrong. As far as long range predictions, he is one of the better ones, and I just hope we start getting some rain down here in South Florida, as a dry Spring, can lead to a very active hurricane season for South Florida.
good luck rita vac! keep a kayak handy.
Quoting 81. RitaEvac:

Reports of up to 20" of rain in Harris and Waller counties. Houston IAH reporting 9"
80 or so water rescues ongoing, 40 neighborhoods.... (not just 40 homes) flooded, bayous overflowing banks, Metro shutdown, everything coming to a standstill this morning.

My area near NWS hasn't had but 0.03" but my time is running out now as the heavy rains are knocking down the door few miles from me now.





Stay safe now and dont get out in this.
I've gotten about 10" since last evening.
It is slowing down here now, not nearly the rainfall amounts I was getting
nice , thanks
Quoting 83. NativeSun:

Why bash someone you don't even know? It would be funny if what he states turns out to be true, and you won't have to wait long to see if his predictions are right, or wrong. As far as long range predictions, he is one of the better ones, and I just hope we start getting some rain down here in South Florida, as a dry Spring, can lead to a very active hurricane season for South Florida.

You still waiting, of course.
Quoting 81. RitaEvac:

Reports of up to 20" of rain in Harris and Waller counties. Houston IAH reporting 9"
80 or so water rescues ongoing, 40 neighborhoods.... (not just 40 homes) flooded, bayous overflowing banks, Metro shutdown, everything coming to a standstill this morning.

My area near NWS hasn't had but 0.03" but my time is running out now as the heavy rains are knocking down the door few miles from me now.


I guess pureet was right for once.
Does anyone know how fast the stalled system is actually moving?
Quoting 69. EmsiNasklug:


Why does the guy get so much attention on here?
That's a good question, maybe because he knows more about the weather then everyone one who post on this blog, except for Dr. Masters, and he has an opposing idea on climate change, that upset the so called experts who post on the good Drs. blog, or maybe everyone likes him. I just want some rain down here in S. FL.
Quoting 90. NativeSun:

That's a good question, maybe because he knows more about the weather then everyone one who post on this blog, except for Dr. Masters, and he has an opposing idea on climate change, that upset the so called experts who post on the good Drs. blog, or maybe everyone likes him. I just want some rain down here in S. FL.

He's a climate revisionist.
And today he showed he simply does not understand weather or climate or climate change - it is given by his Houston snark.
Well, probably he does understand - that even in areas getting drier on average, incidental downpours get worse. But he is paid to lie that away, of course.

'he has an opposing idea on climate change' - which means he denies that CO2 is a GHG (because he has to: paid for it).


Quoting 90. NativeSun:

That's a good question, maybe because he knows more about the weather then everyone one who post on this blog, except for Dr. Masters, and he has an opposing idea on climate change, that upset the so called experts who post on the good Drs. blog, or maybe everyone likes him. I just want some rain down here in S. FL.


The knowledgeable people on climate change here don't keep bringing him up. By the way, what is his opposing view? I haven't seen him publish an alternate theoretical explanation, I do see him frequently deny the established science, however.
Quoting 45. Naga5000:



As much as I love the JB twitter bot you've become, reposting JB's straw man arguments is one of the sillier things I have seen. If you are going to post his tweets, at least attempt to get the facts right, ONE paper predicted a permanent southwest drought by 2050. On the other hand, JB denies the physical properties of Co2. I think listening to JB on matters of climate science is one of the biggest mistakes one can make, and retweet.


Apparently listening to JB on matters of meteorology is also getting quite sketchy. I'm pretty sure even a non-met knows that a flood doesn't magically make a drought go away. But coming from someone who thinks magical heat fairies will take away the excess warmth and plunge us into global cooling, I guess this is just par for the course. :P
Back to back record Spring rain events for Texas the last two years. Rainfall rates in back to back years in individual events that smash anything we've seen. Last May's rains in Texas and Oklahoma and now this are shocking realities to the climate we now combat. God speed to those assisting those in need and good luck Texas! To those here who patronize AGW, there's a responsibility to address what so clearly is happening, people are paying very real consequences. I say people are more important than money and greed. We know you know the truth. Just agenda trumps that truth and trumps the good of the people as a whole.
at IAH, Houston. managed to make it in to work at the airport but just barely. Airport not shutdown but a lot of high water to get through. Another wave about to come across Houston, looks about as bad as the one that came through earlier. Flooding pictures and live information on local news looks bad.
97. vis0

NativeSun, VibrantPlanet, EmsiNasklug, Naga5000, vis0



PEOPLE LIVES ARE AT STAKE

WATCHES & WARNINGS foremost, other weather related comments too

We'll have time AFTERWARDS to debate anything else  as whom one believes or who said what.  BUT THOSE LAST TWO THINGS ARE NOT DIRECTLY WEATHER RELATED

 all parties PLEASE focus on alerting people you know.

 If one's comment will divert the attention from focusing of present forecasts as to anywhere in the world, please refrain till after the serious weather has quieted down

NOT A MOD BUT A CARING SOUL (notice i included myself)
international el nino studies group was stationed in nw ecuador. guayanguil ecuador was the epic center wasnt it.
Quoting 96. HouGalv08:

at IAH, Houston. managed to make it in to work at the airport but just barely. Airport not shutdown but a lot of high water to get through. Another wave about to come across Houston, looks about as bad as the one that came through earlier. Flooding pictures and live information on local news looks bad.


Sorry to hear that you had to go in to work. Wonder if you will be able to make it back home?
If not, do they put you up?
The rain has receded here ...thank goodness as more is on the way
Wonder how much we can take?
I've had 1.8" last night and 7.5" today already
Quoting 93. Xyrus2000:



Apparently listening to JB on matters of meteorology is also getting quite sketchy. I'm pretty sure even a non-met knows that a flood doesn't magically make a drought go away. But coming from someone who thinks magical heat fairies will take away the excess warmth and plunge us into global cooling, I guess this is just par for the course. :P


JB suffers from SFB. He's the worst kind of person: one who realizes that with his "expertise" he can make a bucketful of money by pandering to people who want to believe there's nothing to see here with Global Warming. He really is not an expert in the subject; in fact, he is quite poor at what he is supposed to do in the first place, but the denialists will hang their hat on any rusty nail as long as it agrees with them. JB should take a long walk off a short bridge. [redacted]
I think all the doom and gloom end of world posts on this site takes away from the Hurricane discussion on hear which is very helpful.All the predictions on this site the last 11 years none have come true but the discussion on the storm season makes this site worth following.Hope you guys have great day looking forward to a interesting Hurricane season.
Quoting 100. SouthTampa:


JB suffers from SFB. He's the worst kind of person: one who realizes that with his "expertise" he can make a bucketful of money by pandering to people who want to believe there's nothing to see here with Global Warming. He really is not an expert in the subject; in fact, he is quite poor at what he is supposed to do in the first place, but the denialists will hang their hat on any rusty nail as long as it agrees with them. JB should take a long walk off a short bridge. [redacted]
help4u could be jb.
Stay safe down there in Texas ya'll and listen to forecast and your local nws.Its best to stay off roads and areas that are flooded.
Just SW of Houston we are now over 3" in about 1 1/2 hrs.
107. SLU
Quoting 101. help4u:

I think all the doom and gloom end of world posts on this site takes away from the Hurricane discussion on hear which is very helpful.All the predictions on this site the last 11 years none have come true but the discussion on the storm season makes this site worth following.Hope you guys have great day looking forward to a interesting Hurricane season.


Yeah like back in the old days. Here's to an interesting and safe season!
Quoting 107. SLU:



Yeah like back in the old days. Here's to an interesting and safe season!
Quoting 101. help4u:

I think all the doom and gloom end of world posts on this site takes away from the Hurricane discussion on hear which is very helpful.All the predictions on this site the last 11 years none have come true but the discussion on the storm season makes this site worth following.Hope you guys have great day looking forward to a interesting Hurricane season.


Sorry I bothered you with my empathy for others and society...
A few Houston-area hydrographs:





Yikes...
155 or so water rescues, White Oak Bayou washing over I-10 near Downtown Houston, freeway closed and Hwy 59 section closed.
Particularly looking at the ULL around 34N 50W .It appears that the system is working down to the surface as indicated by the vorticity levels at 850mb 700mb and the 850 mb. the sheer tendency is relaxing in tha same area the next twenty fours hours. it maybe possible that we could get development of STS in this area.

I hope Pureet1948 is safe! C'mon and check in dude.
CPC has no change to Nino 3.4 in the 4/18/16 update as it remains at +1.3C same as last week.

CPC Weekly Update









College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
FLASH FLOOD WARNING HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX - KHGX 903 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX - KHGX 855 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 830 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 820 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX - KHGX 733 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX - KHGX 727 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX - KHGX 705 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 652 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX - KHGX 630 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 619 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 604 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016


Severe Warnings Issued More Than Three Hours Ago

FLASH FLOOD WARNING HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX - KHGX 557 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
TORNADO WARNING     HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX - KHGX 539 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX - KHGX 517 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
TORNADO WARNING     HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX - KHGX 452 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
Quoting 112. wartsttocs:

I hope Pureet1948 is safe! C'mon and check in dude.


me too. I think they posted somewhere down the thread.
Quoting 61. pureet1948:







Hm. GFS seems to have backed off a little bit from the huge deluge it promised in earlier runs. Do you have power? I do, knock on wood.


Too late to say it now but a reminder for the future.. If you have a sump pump you need battery backup with a high capacity deep discharge battery and possibly, for a long duration event, a way to charge it frm a car. (10Guage cable should do it)
Quoting 107. SLU:



Yeah like back in the old days. Here's to an interesting and safe season!


Quoting 115. Patrap:




With a house prone to flash flooding, this is one of my nightmares. And we do get them occasionally in DC metro.

Stay safe and heed warnings. I'll be thinking of and praying for you all in Houston.
Quoting 117. terstorm:



me too. I think they posted somewhere down the thread.
earlier the am before rains over run them
Turn around, don't drown is applicable today in the Houston area.

Don't become a victim.

This Man was lucky this morning. Help was close by.

Taylor and I-10



lets play nice here and now is not the time
Quoting 124. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

lets play nice here and now is not the time

When is?
Because climate change nukes are going off all the time now.
Houston is but one. Fantala is but one. The Indian heat wave (having killed 2-3000 already) is but one. ...
If we want to get real about it talk ain't going to be nice.
Houston residents have a govt to sue. Today.
SLU how can this upstart call you a troll?
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
FLASH FLOOD WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX  
925 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS EXTENDED THE  
 
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  
FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...  
 
* UNTIL NOON CDT  
 
* AT 919 AM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED ONGOING FLASH  
FLOODING ACROSS FAYETTE COUNTY. OVER 14 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN  
NEAR LAKE FAYETTE IN 24 HOURS. THE CITY OF LAGRANGE HAS RECEIVED  
OVER 13 INCHES. THIS HAS RESULTED IN MULTIPLE ROAD CLOSURES  
INCLUDING HIGHWAY 71 AND OTHER SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING ACROSS  
THE COUNTY.  
 
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE  
COUNTY THROUGH NOON.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
STAY AWAY OR BE SWEPT AWAY. RIVER BANKS AND CULVERTS CAN BECOME  
UNSTABLE AND UNSAFE.  
 
TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD  
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.  
 
front from the north heading south over central lakes too lower lakes ends warm spell to a more seasonal spell
Looking at right around 100 subdivisions impacted with house flooding.
Quoting 127. cRRKampen:


When is?
Because climate change nukes are going off all the time now.
Houston is but one. Fantala is but one. The Indian heat wave (having killed 2-3000 already) is but one. ...
If we want to get real about it talk ain't going to be nice
time for talk has passed as a matter of fact a time for a lot of things has passed
full Basin map
Horsepen Creek in Harris county has now surpassed 500 yr flood level
I had the honor of working with Bill Gray the last 10 years on the unanswered question of human caused global warming. The man was the most honest and humble of any scientist I have ever met or worked with in my 35 years in meteorology. He deserves much more credit than he has received for his work on questioning the contribution of carbon dioxide as the primary climate driver. I think it is a shame that many consider this a closed question and are unwilling to even debate the issue. Bill and I both agree that science is never a closed issue and that science should never be "settled" just because of a so called consensus. Nevertheless. we all can agree that he was a great man with a passion for the truth that will be hard to duplicate.
Quoting 132. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

time for talk has passed as a matter of fact a time for a lot of things has passed

Probably too true.
Thanks for having me feel naive for a moment there, that never happened in forty years...
140. SLU
Quoting 128. stoormfury:

SLU how can this upstart call you a troll?


I have no time for these fear mongering Johnny-come-latelies.

What's your impression of the upcoming hurricane season?
141. ariot
This H-town rain reminds me of TS Allison in the flooding, but since I no longer live there, I can only suspect they fixed what flooded out the medical facilities but haven't been able to fix some of the other common spots. Plus, I assume more subdivisions have been built in proximity to bayous that haven't seen this kind of rain.

I'll run and see if the new flood maps are proving out at https://msc.fema.gov/portal

summer is starting soon. dont forget to sign up the little ones for swimming lessons. most likely it will pay off one day.
I dont know what you bloggers consider news or what your trying to accomplish, but to be sure, this entry is multi faceted.

If you cant realize that, then feel free to go open yer own entry.

We have lotsa ram for those.

AGW/Climate Change will always be a part of this entry as any info or post to that end are always welcome.

We do science here, not feelings.


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
FLASH FLOOD WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA  
944 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A  
 
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  
EAST CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...  
 
* UNTIL 1245 PM CDT  
 
* AT 942 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE  
WARNED AREA. UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN.  
SIGNIGICANT URBAN FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.  
 
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...  
PORT ARTHUR...NEDERLAND...GROVES...PORT NECHES...CENTRAL GARDENS...PORT  
ACRES AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS REGIONAL AIRPORT.  
 
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE  
WARNED AREA.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
SIGNIFICANT URBAN FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY. DELAY  
TRAVEL FOR A FEW HOURS IF POSSIBLE.  
 

GFS is cranking out some serious heat for the Arctic region in the 120 hour through 300 hour time frame. Check out some of these ridiculous extremes approaching not only the edges of Greendland icecap but also much of Baffin Bay will see 20-30 C above aveage anomalies with temperatures much above freezing....in April mind you...:/ eek..

210 HR anomalies.

138 HR Temps

204 HR Temps

300 HR Temps


SOURCED: Tropicaltibits.com
Quoting 132. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

time for talk has passed as a matter of fact a time for a lot of things has passed
So what was causing the so called mega drought that was suppose to happen a few years ago in Texas and the Southwest, I believe it was being blamed on climate change, now we are having the mega floods in Texas and the Southwest, and now people are blaming it on climate change, which one is it they both cannot be the result of climate change. How about both the droughts and floods have happened in the past and will continue to happen in the future and are a result of cycles that happen within the weather.
Quoting 146. NativeSun:

So what was causing the so called mega drought that was suppose to happen a few years ago in Texas and the Southwest, I believe it was being blamed on climate change, now we are having the mega floods in Texas and the Southwest, and now people are blaming it on climate change, which one is it they both cannot be the result of climate change. How about both the droughts and floods have happened in the past and will continue to happen in the future and are a result of cycles that happen within the weather.

It's climate change. Droughts get worse, precip incidents get worse. Same package.

There is nothing cyclical to those events. Both get progressively, and detonatingly so, worse.
Dat warmer wetter atmosphere 2.0 makes all the difference, eh?

404.83ppm CO2 and rising is going to do much, much more too.

Quoting 146. NativeSun:

So what was causing the so called mega drought that was suppose to happen a few years ago in Texas and the Southwest, I believe it was being blamed on climate change, now we are having the mega floods in Texas and the Southwest, and now people are blaming it on climate change, which one is it they both cannot be the result of climate change. How about both the droughts and floods have happened in the past and will continue to happen in the future and are a result of cycles that happen within the weather.


FYI, the one paper that predicted a permanent drought for the Southwest did so by 2050. I don't buy into one study on the forefront of scientific analysis, but I do certainly know that 2016 does not equal 2050.
Quoting 148. Patrap:

Dat warmer wetter atmosphere 2.0 makes all the difference, eh?
404.87ppm CO2 and rising is going to do much, much more too.


More water in the skies. Has to come from somewhere. Has to drop somewhere. The thing NS in #146 struggles with, is trivial.
My impression of this season is one that i am very suspicious about. With the transition to la Nina and i believe it will be sooner than forecast and this season could spring lots of surprises. The SAHEL region is wetter than in past years, the SAL is less dense and the easterly trades is not as strong. Shear is also expected to be less hostile. Although the SST is not as warm i expect this anomaly to change as we get towards the end of May. That being said i expect an active season with a number of strong tropical waves traversing the tropical atlantic, The track of tropical systems will depend on the position and strength of the Bermuda/Azores high
Quoting 149. Naga5000:



FYI, the one paper that predicted a permanent drought for the Southwest did so by 2050. I don't buy into one study on the forefront of scientific analysis, but I do certainly know that 2016 does not equal 2050.

As we see in Saudi right now, 'permanent drought' also gets punctuated once in (long) whiles.
Even the Atacama blooms sometimes (hey, it did last year).
Texas might be in it already even with the hiatus of day precip records doubling and doubling again.
153. SLU
Quoting 151. stoormfury:

My impression of this season is one that i am very suspicious about. With the transition to la Nina and i believe it will be sooner than forecast and this season could spring lots of surprises. The SAHEL region is wetter than in past years, the SAL is less dense and the easterly trades is not as strong. Shear is also expected to be less hostile. Although the SST is not as warm i expect this anomaly to change as we get towards the end of May. That being said i expect an active season with a number of strong tropical waves traversing the tropical atlantic, The track of tropical systems will depend on the position and strength of the Bermuda/Azores high


Yes I think it will be a big season but not as active as 2010. I think we will see a few really big ACE storms too like Gilbert 1988, or Dean 2007 with the Caribbean returning to normal after years of suppression. It might also be one of those not-before-50-west years as the cool water off Africa might limit wave development until they get further west but the mid-level RH will also be key this season. If it is above average, then that could be a huge enhancing factor with a warm western MDR, less shear and La Nina.
Quoting 153. SLU:



Yes I think it will be a big season but not as active as 2010. I think we will see a few really big ACE storms too like Gilbert 1988, or Dean 2007 with the Caribbean returning to normal after years of suppression.


Central America and northern South America are in severe drought. That means dry air for the hurricane zone. Don't hold your breath.
155. SLU
Quoting 154. yonzabam:



Central America and northern South America are in severe drought. That means dry air for the hurricane zone. Don't hold your breath.


As an El Nino induced drought, it should ease off as La Nina kicks in.
Usually this would mean stormy weather for the eastern half of the U.S....Its wait and see...The pattern is so weird, anything can happen.

Quoting 155. SLU:



As an El Nino induced drought, it should ease off as La Nina kicks in.

A number of those droughts, and others, have raged for years. Never mind EN/SO too much.
I just want to throw the challenge out to those that somehow "remember" on this blog predictions of permanent drought for East Texas. The history for the blog is readily available yet I have never seen any links to back up these claims. Please show me something or move on because I really doubt there is much to go on and on about.
160. SLU
Quoting 157. cRRKampen:


A number of those droughts, and others, have raged for years. Never mind EN/SO too much.



As far as the Caribbean region is concerned, the atmosphere has been in an El Nino state since probably 2013/2014 hence the suppression of rainfall since then. That will most likely change with La Nina.

The airmass is still dry but you can see that it's been increasing steadily as El Nino weakens. It's already far better than this time last year.

Quoting 138. eldostatepark:

I had the honor of working with Bill Gray the last 10 years on the unanswered question of human caused global warming. The man was the most honest and humble of any scientist I have ever met or worked with in my 35 years in meteorology. He deserves much more credit than he has received for his work on questioning the contribution of carbon dioxide as the primary climate driver. I think it is a shame that many consider this a closed question and are unwilling to even debate the issue. Bill and I both agree that science is never a closed issue and that science should never be "settled" just because of a so called consensus. Nevertheless. we all can agree that he was a great man with a passion for the truth that will be hard to duplicate.


I am curious as to your last ten years of work on the subject. What was the work and what was your contribution?
The rain event in Texas is caused by a cutoff low blocked from moving East by the strong High over the Southeast. We could argue all day about weather climate change cause it but it won't get us anywhere. I pray for those in harms way in Texas, flooding is never fun.
Over 11 inches of rain just north of IAH since midnight. I quit measuring this morning at my house after 10 inches because the gauge filled up and I had no desire to dump it out in the middle of the storm.

The only comparison I have is to Allison.

This is the second major flooding event in less than a year..... I don't miss the drought we had but........
a strong monsoon trough in the western carib this late may or early june could end this longterm drought. im looking for the change to occur quickly this summer
Quoting 162. 69Viking:

The rain event in Texas is caused by a cutoff low blocked from moving East by the strong High over the Southeast. We could argue all day about weather climate change cause it but it won't get us anywhere. I pray for those in harms way in Texas, flooding is never fun.


Flooding all over the world in recent years has been caused by the same 'stuck' jet stream pattern, which is very probably a consequence of Arctic warming.

5 years ago, new flood defences were built in Cumbria, just south of me in Scotland, to protect against 1 in 100 year flood events. This winter, they were overtopped by 16 inches. The past is no longer a reliable indicator for the future.

Scientists didn't foresee this development, and the predicted extreme flood events due to global warming are going to be a lot worse than imagined.
from CNN................Torrential rain is tearing through the Houston, Texas, area, with nearly nine inches of rain falling this morning. Today is the wettest April 18 ever recorded in the city's history, breaking the 1976 record of 8.16 inches.
Condolences to Dr. Gray's family and particularly to all of the students whose lives he touched (and encouraged) so that they could become the next generation of weather scientists and particularly as to tropical storm research. Irrespective of the disagreements with his position on climate change towards the end of his career, he is the Father of modern hurricane science and every time any one of us here are discussing enso phases as related to hurricanes, trajectory issues, and small and large scale dynamic factors that influence tropical storm formation and development, we can thank Dr. Gray for his research in these area..................All students and professors of tropical storm meteorology work under Dr. Grays huge shadow............................................ ......
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1056 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016

.UPDATE...
ONGOING EXTREME FLOODING EVENT...WITH MOST OF THE CITY OF HOUSTON
EXPERIENCING RECORD LEVEL FLOODING FROM ITS REGIONAL BAYOUS AND
BASIC SHEET FLASH FLOODING. THE STRONG WEST-TO-EAST BAND OF
CONVECTION IS BACK BUILDING THROUGH THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH
RECENT REPORTS OF HIGH RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES BEGINNING
TO DECREASE AS THE LINE BECOMES OUTFLOW DOMINANT. NUMEROUS ROADWAYS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF HOUSTON DOWN TOWARDS (AND
INCLUDING) GALVESTON ISLAND ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING FLOODING.
THE BEST ADVICE TO ANYONE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR WHO IS CONSIDERING TRAVEL IS TO STAY PUT AND DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AREAWIDE RAIN
PROBABILITIES REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE EVENING WITH ANOTHER 2 TO 4
INCHES OF RAIN ON TOP OF WHAT WE HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT RAINFALL
RATES WILL BEGIN TO WANE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WE'LL SEE A
BREAK FROM THE HIGH RAINFALL RATES INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THE GENERAL MODEL TREND GOING INTO EARLY TUESDAY IS FOR A POSSIBLE
SECONDARY BOUT OF RAINFALL LATTER THIS EVENING...WITH A THIRD
ROUND OF AREAWIDE RAINFALL SLATED FOR WEDNESDAY? 31

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016/ 

AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE IN AND AROUND MOST OF THE SE TX TAF SITES.
HEAVIEST IMPACTED SITES CURRENTLY ARE SGR AND HOU. WITH ACTIVITY
GRADUALLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD...LBX AND GLS SHOULD BE IMPACTED SOON.
SHRA/TSRA ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT UTS AND CXO WITH THE LEAST IMPACTED
LOCATION PROBABLY CLL. NOT REALLY SURE WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SINCE A LOT WILL DEPEND ON HOW LONG THE
CURRENT ACTIVITY LASTS. GENERALLY EXPECTING MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN AND AROUND THE
STRONGER STORMS. 42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE...HISTORIC FLOOD EVENT ONGOING. SEVERAL FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS AND FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCIES IN EFFECT FROM SLOW MOVING
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS. MULTIPLE HIGH WATER RESCUES REPORTED AND
STRUCTURES BEING FLOODED. UNFORTUNATELY BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
IMPACT AREAS ALREADY HAVING RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERAL
MORE HOURS.


WORST CASE SCENARIO AS DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTING IN OFF THE GULF
AND BEING FOCUSED ALONG E TO W BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY
LITTLE MOVEMENT. MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED TO CAPTURE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF CONVECTION AND DIFFICULT GOING FORWARD AS WELL. NOT MUCH
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. THROUGH TUESDAY
EXPECT ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL ONLY EXACERBATE
FLOODING ALREADY ONGOING. DIFFICULT TO TIME THINGS BUT
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WILL GENERALLY BE SLOW MOVING. CONCERN IS
THEY WILL OCCUR IN SIMILAR AREAS. HAVE HAD TO RAISE POPS WEDNESDAY
AS WELL AS MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER VORT LOBE PIVOTING AROUND UPPER
LOW LIKELY BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. REALLY DONT
DRY OUT UNTIL POSSIBLY FRIDAY AS MODELS SUGGEST RIDGING AT SURFACE
AND ALOFT. 46

MARINE...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER COASTAL
AREAS...GALVESTON...HARRIS...CHAMBERS. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS BRAZORIA
AND MATAGORDA WILL HAVE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. WATER LEVELS ARE
PEAKING AROUND 4 FEET AT HIGH TIDES IN THE WARNING AREA AND AROUND
3.5 FEET IN THE ADVISORY AREA. AFTER THE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE
PEAKING 2-3 PM WE WILL LIKELY SEE WATER LEVELS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
SOME...ALTHOUGH STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS WELL. SHOULD SEE
WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE SOME DURING THE DAY TODAY. 33

Houston,wu page

Active Advisory: Flash Flood Warning, Coastal Flood Warning, Flash Flood Watch, Hydrologic Statement Active Notice: Record Report, Local Storm Report

People like this.. just don't understand

Link
Quoting 123. Patrap:

Turn around, don't drown is applicable today in the Houston area.

Don't become a victim.

This Man was lucky this morning. Help was close by.

Taylor and I-10




Quoting 102. hydrus:

help4u could be jb.

LOL. Explains why I found the urge to block that user so quickly.
Quoting 146. NativeSun:

So what was causing the so called mega drought that was suppose to happen a few years ago in Texas and the Southwest, I believe it was being blamed on climate change, now we are having the mega floods in Texas and the Southwest, and now people are blaming it on climate change, which one is it they both cannot be the result of climate change. How about both the droughts and floods have happened in the past and will continue to happen in the future and are a result of cycles that happen within the weather.
both extreme swings on the climactic scale will and shall continue to occur the dry over texas moved to dry out cali and eventually the dry over cali will move back over texas its a wicked web we have spun with wilder and larger swings yet too come


faster and faster
On the weather front for Conus, this "stuck" pattern with the copious rain into the MS Valley/Texas region is similar to the Mexican cut-off low a few weeks ago that flooded folks in LA and parts except that this one is much larger and centered over a large swatch of the Western US: that very slow movement to the North, and the continued pull of moisture up from the Gulf is going is creating a serious situation with the training bands. Not to mention the river flooding that will follow into the next week in the aftermath.






Thanks Dr. Jeff Masters for this great tribute to Dr. Gray. He contributed so much to the study of hurricane formation and the prediction for seasonal forecasts. May Dr. Gray rest in peace.
Quoting 163. uptxcoast:

Over 11 inches of rain just north of IAH since midnight. I quit measuring this morning at my house after 10 inches because the gauge filled up and I had no desire to dump it out in the middle of the storm.

The only comparison I have is to Allison.

This is the second major flooding event in less than a year..... I don't miss the drought we had but........


I'm on the west side of Houston and sitting at 10.5" since last evening.
Still raining, no longer ferociously. Early am was filled with booming thunder and lightening.
One of my pups will not come out of hiding
Odd pattern of cutoff lows across the midlatitudes, at least in this hemisphere. One lurks west of California, one over the lower midwest, another out in the Atlantic. Plus a strong southerly upper flow/jet remains, whatever the predicted course of El Nino, still a Nino pattern. Wind shear over the Caribbean right now makes any tropical development there virtually impossible, regardless of ssts.
Today and tomorrow:
Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop
Forecast of Fronts/Pressure and Weather valid Mon 18Z
Forecast valid Tuesday 12Z

Quoting 88. Geoboy645:

I guess pureet was right for once.
So was the GFS...Spot on in fact..
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
FLASH FLOOD WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA  
1126 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A  
 
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...  
SOUTHWESTERN NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...  
 
* UNTIL 230 PM CDT  
 
* AT 1122 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE  
WARNED AREA. TWO TO SIX INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN.  
FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.  
 
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...  
EVADALE...CALL...BUNA...TROUT CREEK...WEISS BLUFF...WRIGHTS SETTLEMENT...  
GIST AND DEVILS POCKET.  
 
SOME OF THE LOCAL DRAINAGE SYSTEMS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO SEE  
FLOODING...INCLUDE UT ARE NOT LIMITED TO COW BAYOU AND GUM SLOUGH.  
 
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE  
WARNED AREA.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
DELAY TRAVEL FOR A FEW HOURS UNTIL THE FLOODING RECEDES.  
 
the sst's are warmer than the year 2005 lets see how hot they can get remember once ocean temps hit 92 degrees super mega micro hurricanes will be possible ok maybe a little much but you get the picture here



Quoting 183. weathermanwannabe:

Today and tomorrow:
Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop
Forecast of Fronts/Pressure and Weather valid Mon 18Z
Forecast valid Tuesday 12Z


here is the animation to go with that
"to", "to" go with that.

"too", can I help "too"?

"two", Can you spare "two" cents?

: P
Hear there's a lot of flooding going on in the Houston area today.

The Storm God's RAEG continues...and the Rain God must be sad.

Stay safe everyone.
And finally, the current jet and the wind flow coming up from the Gulf:
/data/atmosphere/hdwinds/amv/IRNHE11.GIF

Observed at:

Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport

Date:

12:00 PM EDT Monday 18 April 2016

Temperature:

70.7°F

Dewpoint:

34.5°F

Humidity:

26%

Wind:

SW 7 mph

expected high of 75 later this afternoon with increasing clouds from the north heading south with showers before and after midnight
Quoting 188. Patrap:

"to", "to" go with that.

"too", can I help "too"?

"two", Can you spare "two" cents?

: P
typo double o sorry
Quoting 180. justmehouston:



I'm on the west side of Houston and sitting at 10.5" since last evening.
Still raining, no longer ferociously. Early am was filled with booming thunder and lightening.
One of my pups will not come out of hiding

Rain gauges in parts of Harris County, which includes most of Houston, showed water levels approaching 20 inches since late Sunday night.

Link
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
FLASH FLOOD WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX  
1149 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS EXTENDED THE  
 
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  
FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...  
 
* UNTIL 400 PM CDT  
 
* AT 1147 AM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED FLASH FLOODING  
ACROSS THE COUNTY. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE COUNTY HAVE EXPERIENCED  
OVER 13 INCHES OF RAIN AND SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS OVER 14 INCHES.  
ONGOING FLOODING IN THE COUNTY IS CONTINUING WITH MULTIPLE ROAD  
CLOSURES INCLUDING HIGHWAY 71. LIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO  
CONTINUE FOR ABOUT ANOTHER HOUR.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
STAY AWAY OR BE SWEPT AWAY. RIVER BANKS AND CULVERTS CAN BECOME  
UNSTABLE AND UNSAFE.  
 
TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD  
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.  
 
Quoting 194. RobertWC:


Rain gauges in parts of Harris County, which includes most of Houston, showed water levels approaching 20 inches since late Sunday night.

Link



20 inches. The Storm God and the Rain God must be really angry and sad.
Quoting 196. 62901IL:



20 inches. The Storm God and the Rain God must be really angry and sad.
some may exceed 2 feet 24 inches
RIP Dr Gray, condolences go out to his family and friends. Gonna be a wet and wooley week in U.S. Thanks for the updates gentlesmens!
Quoting 188. Patrap:

"to", "to" go with that.

"too", can I help "too"?

"two", Can you spare "two" cents?

: P


That is "too much..."

-

Talked to a friend in Houston and the rain is no joke... He works midnights and has a long drive home. Water up the bottoms of mailboxes on his route home.
Floods Overwhelm Chile's Capital, Fouling Water Supply

Floods, Landslides Leave 6 Missing in Eastern Indonesia

Flash Floods in North Afghanistan Kill 38 People Overnight

Floods Leave at Least 9 Dead in Chile and Uruguay
This guy may be dumber than the old man in the honda earlier. What in the world is this guy doing????

Link
Fantala Rainbow Image



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 APR 2016 Time : 163000 UTC
Lat : 9:20:26 S Lon : 49:06:04 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 932.9mb/137.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.2 6.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -7.4C Cloud Region Temp : -72.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 88km
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

Satellite Name : MET7
Satellite Viewing Angle : 14.3 degrees



Where the heck is Pureet? Was that him in the car???

From Houston NWS forecast discussion:

ONGOING EXTREME FLOODING EVENT...WITH MOST OF THE CITY OF HOUSTON
EXPERIENCING RECORD LEVEL FLOODING FROM ITS REGIONAL BAYOUS AND
BASIC SHEET FLASH FLOODING.
I just saw pureet float by...and I'm in JAX, FL....
I just communicated with Ihave27windows ( Mary in Pasadena, a suburb of Houston ) - they have no power, no cable, no internet. They are safe but it's pretty much a disaster there. But we already knew that.

Does ANYONE have contact with Beell??
Gonna be HOT today and Tomorrow (allegedly). RH is 17% and dropping, still cool here 72.4F

On this day in 1906, a 7.8 magnitude earthquake hit San Francisco, killing over 3,000 people and destroying 80% of the city.

Earthquake risk is a fact of life in Northern California, but you can keep your family safe with smart preparation.
Quoting 205. aquak9:

I just saw pureet float by...and I'm in JAX, FL....


2016, The year the climate caused us to float by in our cars?

Stay safe everyone, don't be that guy.
Quoting 201. DavidHOUTX:

This guy may be dumber than the old man in the honda earlier. What in the world is this guy doing????

Link


Looks like he wanted a new car, badly! Or insurance fraud.
Floods in Russia

Over the last few days, Russia has been plagued by numerous floods in central and northern parts of the country. The bad weather has also accelerated the thawing of ice in many rivers. The Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations has sent teams to address the problems.

Link
Earthquake risk is a fact of life in Northern California, but you can keep your family safe with smart preparation. You can keep you family safe by moving the hell out of California.... but I don't think I'd recommend Houston at this point. ( sorry, I went thru Northridge, and earthquakes are the WORST )
Quoting 90. NativeSun:

That's a good question, maybe because he knows more about the weather then everyone one who post on this blog, except for Dr. Masters, and he has an opposing idea on climate change, that upset the so called experts who post on the good Drs. blog, or maybe everyone likes him. I just want some rain down here in S. FL.

Bastardi is both clueless and blatantly dishonest regarding climate change. He doesn't understand the science. Then he lies about what the science says. Why would anyone listen to him?
Quoting 140. SLU:



I have no time for these fear mongering Johnny-come-latelies.


A quantum leap, quantum leap, quantum leap ....
As for being childish: Denial is the earliest stage of handling conflicts in life. The second one is lying: "it wasn't me". Only then do we get to what is called acting responsibly.
Quoting 201. DavidHOUTX:

This guy may be dumber than the old man in the honda earlier. What in the world is this guy doing????

Link


Darwin candidate right there
Lots of water vapor-precip around certain parts of the Northern Hemisphere lately............................................ ...........


Quoting 212. aquak9:

Earthquake risk is a fact of life in Northern California, but you can keep your family safe with smart preparation. You can keep you family safe by moving the hell out of California.... but I don't think I'd recommend Houston at this point. ( sorry, I went thru Northridge, and earthquakes are the WORST )
Went through Northridge and Sylmar 1971, Just lucky I guess, not a scratch from either. Knocking on table as we speak.
Quoting 216. weathermanwannabe:

Lots of water vapor-precip around certain parts of the Northern Hemisphere lately............................................ ...........


On the bright side, the heavy rain is helping to fill over pumped aquifers...We use more that nayure can keep up with. With all the water in the word, only 2.5% is drinkable.
Quoting 212. aquak9:

Earthquake risk is a fact of life in Northern California, but you can keep your family safe with smart preparation. You can keep you family safe by moving the hell out of California.... but I don't think I'd recommend Houston at this point. ( sorry, I went thru Northridge, and earthquakes are the WORST )
I've lived in Houston since Sept 1975. Been thru a lot of heavy rain events (such as todays), tropical storms, hurricanes. Safety in this city comes down to one common denominator---use common sense. If its flooding as bad as today, stay off the roads unless absolute travel is needed. Another thing---60% of Harris county is a known flood risk. Have flood insurance on the house, no matter where you live in the county. I've seen 4" an hour rain rates(Allison), and no drainage system engineered can handle that kind of rain rate. And if at all possible have the house elevated about 5-6' off the ground. Most, if not all houses are built on slabs here which I think is idiotic, but it's cheaper than post/beam, on which they should be built. But that's my opinion. And one more thing, you've got to be hurricane ready by May 1st, not June 1st. Better earlier than making a run for provisions when everyone else is (experience speaking).
If you spend a lot of time talking to scientists about climate change, there’s one word you’ll hear time and time again, and yet it’s hardly ever mentioned in the public discussion of climate change. The word is “non-linear.”

Most people think of global warming as an incremental thing. It may be inexorable, but it’s also predictable. Alas, most people are wrong. The climate is a very complex system, and complex systems can change in non-linear ways.

In other words, you cannot count on the average global temperature rising steadily but slowly as we pump more and more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. It may do that — but there may also be a sudden jump in the average global temperature that lands you in a world of hurt. That may be happening now.


Link
Quoting 160. SLU:



As far as the Caribbean region is concerned, the atmosphere has been in an El Nino state since probably 2013/2014 hence the suppression of rainfall since then. That will most likely change with La Nina.

The airmass is still dry but you can see that it's been increasing steadily as El Nino weakens. It's already far better than this time last year.



For this region, you should be right.
Like happened with California, wouldn't hope the precips go mostly north and south past but given a humane distribution you should be right.
Quoting 208. Patrap:

On this day in 1906, a 7.8 magnitude earthquake hit San Francisco, killing over 3,000 people and destroying 80% of the city.

Earthquake risk is a fact of life in Northern California, but you can keep your family safe with smart preparation.


Learning all about that up here in AK.. Never had to really worry about in Florida. I switched my hurricane plan for an EQ and Volcano plan. As long as the earth doesn't swallow you up - you can plan for it... Gensets ready to go, always have spare fuel on hand, and make sure the pantry is always full are good starts. Of course, a backup heat source that doesn't require power to run is also a good thing.

I hope to not go through a 9.2 - the significantly less ones are scary enough.
Quoting 158. wartsttocs:

I just want to throw the challenge out to those that somehow "remember" on this blog predictions of permanent drought for East Texas. The history for the blog is readily available yet I have never seen any links to back up these claims. Please show me something or move on because I really doubt there is much to go on and on about.


I searched the archives by category and found this blog but 1) there is no reference to permanent drought and 2) it was noted the drought "could" last 9 years, not "will" last 9 years. I could win the lottery but I probably won't - especially since I have no tickets. :) Short answer - I agree with you.
225. beell
Far eastern Harris County. About 3.5" in the coffee cup rain gage.

Storms developed enough convective intensity early this morning to invigorate the cold pool and push the line forward (to the south/southeast) after it had stalled for several hours.

Working from home today. No issues.

Lucky...!



Quoting 226. justmehouston:




Maybe I dont know how to read this map but it doesnt seem correct to me.
I've had 9" of rain today and this map shows 3"

For the uninitiated, there is no chance (due to very high shear) for anything tropical to develop in the Gulf regardless of what it looks like......... :)


Quoting 226. justmehouston:

.
Brightest comment all day!!!
Look at how far ahead of the forecast the West Fork of the San Jacinto River is near Humble! This is awful!

Link
Quoting 224. StAugustineFL:



I searched the archives by category and found this blog but 1) there is no reference to permanent drought and 2) it was noted the drought "could" last 9 years, not "will" last 9 years. I could win the lottery but I probably won't - especially since I have no tickets. :) Short answer - I agree with you.


Could this be the "prediction" of permanent drought from the article referenced? (my emphasis)

"The long-term weather patterns, including La Nina currents in the oceans, mirror records from the early 1950s, Nielsen-Gammon said. The current drought, which he said began in earnest in 2005, could wind up being a 15-year stretch if patterns hold, he said."

Link

232. bwi
Lots of indications that the Arctic melt season is off to a warm start. This week's forecast looks especially warm (relatively at least) in much of Greenland, Alaska, Siberia. Cooler than normal further south in Quebec, Northern Europe etc.
Here's hoping that they're right: Link

It has truly been a crazy few weeks of weather in Texas. I've seen marble-sized hail twice (once in Austin, once in Houston) and now the worst flooding event since...oh wait, just last Memorial Day in Central Texas. Thankfully, I decided not to head back up to UT this morning, but I'm thinking about taking a chance here in a few minutes.
RIP Dr. Gray. May your forecasts carry on in heaven!
SWIRLY

We had 100+knos of wind at 410 up to about 100 miles west of Cayman and I suspect those winds go further to the east.
I dont recall seeing winds that strong that far into the caribbean.
It shows on the surface as its getting very dry now.
No one wants a storm but the problem is without any real weather patterns to create weather in this part of the world and living on a tiny land mass that does not create its own weather the storms are our only real hope for much needed rains.
Quoting 228. weathermanwannabe:

For the uninitiated, there is no chance (due to very high shear) for anything tropical to develop in the Gulf regardless of what it looks like......... :)


is that strong jet normally over the caribbean?
Quoting 190. weathermanwannabe:

And finally, the current jet and the wind flow coming up from the Gulf:
/data/atmosphere/hdwinds/amv/IRNHE11.GIF


Quoting 235. JrWeathermanFL:

SWIRLY


Hmmmm......

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
204 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016

OKC085-TXC097-190703-
/O.EXT.KOUN.FL.W.0015.160418T2251Z-160422T2145Z/
/GSVT2.3.ER.160418T2251Z.160420T0000Z.160422T1545 Z.NO/
204 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016

...Forecast flooding increased from Moderate to Major severity...

The Flood Warning continues for
The Red River near Gainesville. (TX)

* from this afternoon to Friday afternoon...or until the warning is
cancelled.

* At 1:30 PM Monday the stage was 19.2 feet.

* Major flooding is forecast.

* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.

* Forecast...The Red River will rise above flood stage late Monday
afternoon and crest near 34.5 feet Tuesday evening. The Red River
will fall below flood stage late Friday morning.

* Impact...At 35.0 feet...Crop and range lands...pecan groves...oil
wells...and rural roads are flooded or isolated. Low-lying
fields...upstream in western Love County in Oklahoma...and Cooke
County in Texas...experience overflows several hours before the
crest reaches the Interstate Highway I-35 crossing north of
Gainesville. Sandpit operations area affected. Livestock and other
property should be removed to places which are at least 10 feet
higher than nearby river banks to avoid being stranded.



&&

LAT...LON 3379 9748 3400 9748 3395 9719 3398 9704
3380 9698 3367 9710

(Edit: Graphic possibly will update)
say its about 1 every two yrs we see a monsoon trough in the NW carib.. late may early june. the odds might be even higher because of the drought. any comments?
we really need one but the winds have been nuts for months until they subside I cant see anything setting up

Quoting 240. islander101010:

say its about 1 every two yrs we see a monsoon trough in the NW carib.. late may early june. the odds might be even higher because of the drought. any comments?
If we have something like this during the season, could see development...





245. JRRP7






Houston flood photos ...the first one is my favorite - thats an armadillo in case you are wondering
Compliments of NBC News
Quoting 243. hydrus:

If we have something like this during the season, could see development...




I don't see anything.
RIP Dr. Gray, and RIP Houston. We hardly knew you.

Quoting 231. wartsttocs:



Could this be the "prediction" of permanent drought from the article referenced? (my emphasis)

"The long-term weather patterns, including La Nina currents in the oceans, mirror records from the early 1950s, Nielsen-Gammon said. The current drought, which he said began in earnest in 2005, could wind up being a 15-year stretch if patterns hold, he said."

Link



Yes, you can chase and even pin down a denier's dishonesty and/or just plain sloppiness, but it doesn't matter. They will be back in a month with the SAME EXACT LINES. Or whatever new shtick JB or whomever feeds them, because you know darn well that they don't come up with any of their lines themselves.
Quoting 247. justmehouston:







Houston flood photos ...the first one is my favorite
Compliments of NBC News


Just for the record, armadillos are known carriers of Hanson's disease, also known as leprosy.
Quoting 251. ACSeattle:


Just for the record, armadillos are known carriers of Hanson's disease, also known as leprosy.


They not bad with a lot of garlic and onions either.

Quoting 249. Mediarologist:

RIP Dr. Gray, and RIP Houston. We hardly knew you.


Yes, you can chase and even pin down a denier's dishonesty and/or just plain sloppiness, but it doesn't matter. They will be back in a month with the SAME EXACT LINES. Or whatever new shtick JB or whomever feeds them, because you know darn well that they don't come up with any of their lines themselves.


Well, I notice they've stopped claiming that Al Gore doesn't believe in sea level rise because he bought a beach front house. Bit too stupid, even for deniers, that one.

And, Eric the Red growing whatever it was in Greenland. Pineapples?
If your in Texas and are experiencing flooding inside your Home, call 311.

Also, take pics and describe all your damage and costs post storm as this will no doubt be a FEMA assisted event.
Capital Weather Gang ‏@capitalweather 1m1 minute ago
Capital Weather Gang Retweeted Mark Mulligan
More than 1,000 high water rescues in Houston area today...horses among them
Quoting 252. Patrap:



They not bad with a lot of garlic and onions either.



Are you giving expression to your inner Justan Wilson?
Quoting 256. ACSeattle:


Are you giving expression to your inner Justan Wilson?


Indeed Mon cher, I garontee'

Quoting 138. eldostatepark:

I had the honor of working with Bill Gray the last 10 years on the unanswered question of human caused global warming. The man was the most honest and humble of any scientist I have ever met or worked with in my 35 years in meteorology. He deserves much more credit than he has received for his work on questioning the contribution of carbon dioxide as the primary climate driver.


I seriously doubt he questioned that CO2 as the primary climate driver, because it isn't. Nor has anyone ever claimed CO2 is the primary driver of climate (other than people trying to create strawmen arguments against climate scientists).

CO2 isn't even the primary contributor to greenhouse effect (water vapor is responsible for the vast majority of our cozy little planet).

What CO2 is though is very long lived greenhouse gas. Unlike water vapor, methane, etc. it hangs around for a considerable length of time. This means that if CO2 is being added faster than the carbon sinks can take it out, it builds up in the atmosphere. When you increase the amount of a greenhouse gas in an atmosphere, you increase the capacity for that atmosphere to trap heat. And since our planet is about 75% covered by a giant heat sink (oceans), a fair amount of that excess heat accumulates.

Now I'm sure you aware of the principles of conservation of energy and the laws of thermodynamics. It doesn't matter how small an amount of heat/energy you add to a system. If that system does not have a way to disperse the extra heat/energy, then it will accumulate. Accumulation of energy in a system at equilibrium will destabilize that system until a new equilibrium is reached.

Basic science, most of which has been established since the 1800's. In fact, AGW was first predicted in the late 1800's.

I think it is a shame that many consider this a closed question and are unwilling to even debate the issue.


There is a universe of difference between "scientific debate" and "inane ramblings of the naive and ignorant". If the base of someone's argument is based on violating physical fundamentals (such as mentioned laws of conservation and thermodynamics), then there is no point arguing with them from a scientific standpoint.

Bill and I both agree that science is never a closed issue and that science should never be "settled" just because of a so called consensus.


Neither does any other respectable scientists. The planet warming as result of an increase in greenhouse gases doesn't require any great or complex scientific insight. In fact, claiming otherwise flies in the face of fundamental principles.

Now if you want argue over how much warming there will be, or what it's impacts will be there's still plenty of race left to run on those aspects. But unless you have some very strong evidence to the contrary, the questions of whether or not CO2 is a greenhouse gas and whether or not an increase/decrease in said gas will impact the climate system we're answered well before Relativity was a twinkle in Einstein's mind.

Bill Gray was a great met with a lot of solid contributions to meteorology. But just because someone is great at one aspect of science doesn't mean they are great at all aspects of science (or as authoritative). He was just as guilty as any denier when it came to climate researchers, casting aspersion on climate scientists and as little more than "grant-seekers" (why critique the research when it's so much easier to just insult people?). Later in his life he grudgingly admitted that global warming was happening, but attributed the human contribution as being "insignificant" and that it was mostly just a natural cycle (though he never did provide a paper on what this "natural" driver was that could so influence global temperature but apparently not be seen by anyone).

Everyone has their flaws and biases.

Nevertheless. we all can agree that he was a great man with a passion for the truth that will be hard to duplicate.


The problem with truth is that it's subjective. As demonstrated here, Gray's version of truth was that AGW was a made up baseless hypothesis being pushed by a global conspiracy to cash in on grant money by dishonest scientists. But that truth is quite divorced from reality. Objectively, such a claim is simply ridiculous as even cursory research shows that a climate scientists could make significantly more money by working for fossil fuels. In fact, a number of professions pay significantly more than being a climate researcher without the additional stress of fighting over funding and spending far more than 40 hours a week working.

Objectively, Bill Gray was a great hurricane researcher who made many positive contributions to the field. It's a shame he couldn't expand that insight into the climate realm due to personal biases, but no doubt his work has will continue to be incorporated into that field.
Quoting 234. FyrtleMyrtle:

RIP Dr. Gray. May your forecasts carry on in heaven!
I can hear it now "Good morning Heaven! And now for today's forecast: Sunshine with 100% chance of Peace, Joy and Love, but don't forget to say a prayer for our friends who struggle below... "
Not sure a que hora the rain started, but here's some 48 hour totals for Harris County as of 3:06 pm cdt Monday, April 18, 2016.


Source: Harris County Flood Warning System. If you click the weather alert at the top of this linked page, you can view current TX flood warnings county by county.

Quoting 39. SLU:

Joe Bastardi %u200F@BigJoeBastardi

The same crew screaming Texas perma drought a few years ago will now blame their bust on global warming and play the flood card.

This statement alone proves just how willfully slimy JB is. I'm sure he knows that extreme events are becoming more common with climate change, and therefore we are seeing more intense droughts and more intense floods.

One of the reasons why JB sucks at long range forecasts is because he always champions the eminent coming of the ice age. Sorry Joe this winter didn't fit your forecast - oh i mean agenda.

Everything we are seeing globally is right in line with NOAA's Global Climate Change indicators.

Of which I have posted for almost decade now.

Facts matter, BS dosen't.


Global Climate Change Indicators

Many lines of scientific evidence show the Earth's climate is changing. This page presents the latest information from several independent measures of observed climate change that illustrate an overwhelmingly compelling story of a planet that is undergoing global warming. It is worth noting that increasing global temperature is only one element of observed global climate change. Precipitation patterns are also changing; storms and other extremes are changing as well.
RIP Dr. Gray..

Prayers to those in Houston..

"You're" "Your" "Too" "Two"
Quoting 261. VibrantPlanet:


This statement alone proves just how willfully slimy JB is. I'm sure he knows that extreme events are becoming more common with climate change, and therefore we are seeing more intense droughts and more intense floods.

One of the reasons why JB sucks at long range forecasts is because he always champions the eminent coming of the ice age. Sorry Joe this winter didn't fit your forecast - oh i mean agenda.


Why all the personal attacks on JB, is he a threat to you and your ideas? As far as a forecaster, JB is a very good long range forecaster, as long range forecasting Is not an exact science, and very few will be accurate. Please send some of your rain to South Florida we need the rain.
Quoting 264. NativeSun:

Why all the personal attacks on JB, is he a threat to you and your ideas? As far as a forecaster, JB is a very good long range forecaster, as long range forecasting Is not an exact science, and very few will be accurate. Please send some of your rain to South Florida we need the rain.


His denial of science is a threat to society. He is just as bad as the tobacco executives. The science is clear, yet he profiteers off of doubt. But hey, capitalism, right?
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 264. NativeSun:

Why all the personal attacks on JB, is he a threat to you and your ideas? As far as a forecaster, JB is a very good long range forecaster, as long range forecasting Is not an exact science, and very few will be accurate. Please send some of your rain to South Florida we need the rain.


I only pull up JB on twitter for his hurricane skills..his political views are atrocious..

However if one should go to his twitter page and look at his mentions under his posts not one person is trying to have a debate with him..but you can find comments here on this page challenging his views..easier to be anonymous I guess on here..

I would like to see JB engage some of the posters here. I'll keep watching to see if any of the determined souls here who want the truth to be known challenge him on twitter about climate change..would be a great platform for everyone to see..

You all have a great day :)

Quoting 264. NativeSun:

Why all the personal attacks on JB, is he a threat to you and your ideas? As far as a forecaster, JB is a very good long range forecaster, as long range forecasting Is not an exact science, and very few will be accurate. Please send some of your rain to South Florida we need the rain.

Perhaps I could be nicer, but JB and his climate denial machine have caused so much mass disinformation, that i have lost any compassion for his ilk. Time to wake up, our planet is changing with more momentum and consequences than most scientists have foreseen. Deny reality at your own peril and don't expect others to be nice to you when you do.
269. SLU
.
we can dance if we wanna'
Quoting 270. Patrap:

we can dance if we wanna'

Men with Hats....dont member any mo
272. vis0

Quoting 107. SLU:



Yeah like back in the old days. Here's to an interesting and safe season!
reply (not direct at any member, unless JB is a member) at my zilly blog.
Quoting 264. NativeSun:

Why all the personal attacks on JB, is he a threat to you and your ideas? As far as a forecaster, JB is a very good long range forecaster, as long range forecasting Is not an exact science, and very few will be accurate. Please send some of your rain to South Florida we need the rain.

Yes, JB belongs to the threat. As a climate revisionist he takes part in being responsible for killing the coral, or the by now 2,000 dead in the Indian heatwave, and the Houston floods including the fatalities et cetera.

JB belongs to the fact that human society is set to end during the course of this century. Nothing less.
RIP, Dr. Gray. You will be missed.
“This paper has been prepared for the professional meteorologist, the news media, and any interested layman.”
Only the gifted can make information accessible to all as Dr. Gray did. My condolences to his family. I hope he is enjoying his new view.