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The North Atlantic Blob: A Marine Cold Wave That Won’t Go Away

By: Bob Henson 6:01 PM GMT on April 08, 2016

When you look at a map of global surface temperatures for 2015, the first impression you might get is a planet with a bad sunburn. Almost every part of the globe saw above-average temperatures during Earth’s warmest year on record, and there was unprecedented warmth across many parts of the tropical and subtropical oceans (Figure 1). The next thing you’d probably notice is a blue blob in the North Atlantic, sticking out like a frostbitten thumb. No one knows exactly why, but this blob of unusually chilly water, roughly half the size of the United States, has taken up what seems like semi-permanent residence in the North Atlantic Ocean.

It’s normal for ocean temperatures to wax and wane on all kinds of time scales. What’s more uncommon is for a cold anomaly this large and strong to persist for so long, especially when the rest of the planet is trending ever warmer.


Figure 1. Surface temperatures for 2015 were at record cold values for part of the far North Atlantic, even as most of the globe was unusually warm. Image credit: NOAA/NCEI.


Heat waves and cold waves at sea
The North Atlantic’s cold blob once had a hot-headed cousin. Thousands of miles away, on the other side of North America, a zone of above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the northeast Pacific gained fame as “The Blob.” While it was in place, from about 2013 through most of 2015, The Blob was closely linked with intense upper-level ridging over and near it. The Pacific jet stream arced northward, away from California, which helped strengthen the fierce multiyear drought still plaguing much of the state. Once it became clear last autumn that a strong El Niño was on its way, experts predicted that a juiced-up storm track in the Northeast Pacific would churn up the waters enough to dilute and vanquish The Blob. Sure enough, The Blob eroded to near-nothingness in just a few weeks during late 2015, and the West Coast from San Francisco northward got drenched by wet Pacific storms throughout the subsequent winter.

One way to think of The Blob is as a “marine heat wave,” according to Hillary Scannell. Now a graduate student at the University of Washington, Scannell analyzed the full spectrum of these oceanic warm spots in a Geophysical Research Letters paper, written with colleagues at the University of Maine, NOAA, and the Gulf of Maine Research Institute and published in March. Scannell is also coauthor on a new Progress in Oceanography paper, led by Alistair Hobday (CSIRO), that lays out suggested metrics for defining marine heatwaves. Such events can have big impacts on ocean ecology: marine heatwaves have been implicated in hundreds of years of coral-reef damage, and record-warm ocean temperatures have caused extensive damage this year to the Great Barrier Reef.


Figure 2. Bleached coral at Lizard Island, north of Cooktown, Australia, captured by the XL Catlin Seaview Survey in March 2016. The global insurance firm XL Catlin is working with scientific institutions around the world to carry out the ongoing survey, which has collected more than 700,000 panoramic images along nearly one million kilometers. Image credit: XL Catlin Seaview Survey, via globalcoralbleaching.org.


Just like atmospheric heat waves, oceanic heat waves come in all sizes and shapes, typically defined by SST anomalies (departures from the seasonal average). But while a heat wave over land is ultimately doomed by the arrival of autumn, marine heat waves can recur for two or more years, because of what’s known as the reemergence mechanism: warm anomalies that stay just below the surface during the placid flow of summer can return to the surface in winter by the deeper mixing brought about by strong storms. As one might expect, large, long-lived oceanic heat waves lasting a year or more are less common than briefer ones.

Using this analogy, we might picture the North Atlantic’s blob as a “marine cold wave.” Although such cold waves weren’t addressed in the GRL paper, Scannell has analyzed them. As with marine warm waves, she told me that brief, smaller, and/or weaker marine cold waves are more common than large, long-lived, stronger ones.

Once a marine heat wave or cold wave takes shape, its blob of above- or below-normal SSTs may feed back into the atmosphere, helping to intensify and reinforce the circulation patterns that brought it to life. There is one important distinction: cold surface blobs are easier than warm blobs to disrupt. This is because the ocean is more likely to mix (convect) when colder water sits astride warmer water, just as the atmosphere is more prone to intense storminess when cold upper level air moves atop warm, moist surface air. When you consider this instability, it’s even more impressive that the North Atlantic’s cold blob has outlived the Northeast Pacific’s warm blob.

“The persistence--the staying power--of this anomaly is really pretty remarkable,” noted Michael Mann (Pennsylvania State University) in an email. “It is particularly striking that during the warmest year on record globally [2015], this region saw its coldest year on record.”

Putting the brakes on Atlantic circulation
Might the cold blob be a sign of something else going on--in particular, a long-term slowdown in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation? The AMOC transports heat northward through the North Atlantic, via the Gulf Stream and related currents. Completing the loop, dense surface water--generated near the surface in the frigid Labrador Sea, southwest of Greenland--sinks and flows southward.


Figure 3. A schematic of the Atlantic ocean circulation, with surface currents in red, deep currents in blue, and winter sea-ice cover in white. NADW denotes North Atlantic Deep Water. Image credit: Stefan Rahmstorf, “Risk of sea-change in the Atlantic,” Nature 1997.


Scientists have warned for years that the AMOC is likely to slow down in the coming decades due to human-induced climate change. Estimates in the latest IPCC assessment (2013) range from an 11% to 34% slowdown during this century, depending on the pace of global greenhouse emissions. A warming planet would produce this slowdown in several ways, such as increased melting from the Greenland Ice Sheet or increased export of sea ice out of the Arctic Ocean. Either or both of these mechanisms could send additional fresh (non-salty) water around southern Greenland and into the Labrador Sea. Because fresh water is less dense than salty water, this could inhibit the formation of bottom water and slow down the AMOC. (Fortunately, atmospheric warming should more than offset AMOC-related cooling, even on a regional basis, so the shift this century is not expected to bury New York in mountains of snow as depicted in the 2004 film “The Day After Tomorrow.”)

A number of leading scientists believe that meltwater from Greenland has already produced an AMOC slowdown. Mihai Dima and Gerrit Lohmann (Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research) argued in a 2010 paper that the global conveyor belt has been weakening since the 1930s, with a dramatic shift around 1970. In a 2015 Nature Climate Change paper, Stefan Rahmstorf (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) and colleagues, including Mann, made this case by using 1000 years of paleoclimate proxy data. They estimate that the AMOC actually began slowing in the 20th century--and especially since the 1970s, when the slowing has no precedent in their millennial-scale analysis. “Further melting of Greenland in the coming decades could contribute to further weakening of the AMOC,” they warned. The paper also presents NASA data for the 20th century that show a cold trend in SSTs in roughly the same location as the current North Atlantic cold blob. In a 2015 RealClimate article, Rahmstorf noted that the location of the current cold wave “happens to be just that area for which climate models predict a cooling when the Gulf Stream System weakens.” 

To gauge the strength of the AMOC more directly, a project called RAPID has been using an array of buoys and other instruments straddling the subtropical northwest Atlantic for the last decade-plus. “RAPID does show a declining decadal trend in the AMOC since 2004, which is consistent with our data,” Rahmstorf said in an email. More data will soon arrive from a new project called OSNAP (Figure 4), which is in the process of deploying an observational network close to Greenland to measure the undersea flow in the critical north end of the AMOC.


Figure 4. The observational array being installed by OSNAP (Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program) will monitor surface and subsurface flow at several points over the far North Atlantic. Image credit: OSNAP.


The NAO at work
On top of longer-term climate change, there is some interesting decadal-scale variability in the mix. I checked in with oceanographer Steve Yeager (National Center for Atmospheric Research), who serves on the U.S. AMOC Science Team. Yeager agreed with Rahmstorf that the AMOC will tend to slow down over coming decades as a result of human-produced climate change. However, he added, “on the decadal time scale, you have the role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in slowing down or enhancing the AMOC.”

Although the North Atlantic Oscillation is notoriously variable from week to week, month to month, and year to year, it can lean toward one phase or the other for as long as 10 or 15 years (see Figure 5 below). When the NAO trends positive during the winter, as it did during most of the 1990s and early 2000s, it favors colder air staying cooped up in the polar and subpolar regions. This would tend to enhance the formation of bottom water in the Labrador Sea and boost the AMOC, and in fact the AMOC did strengthen in the 1990s. The NAO turned largely negative in the late 2000s and early 2010s, and this transition to more neutral/negative NAO conditions may have caused the AMOC to weaken substantially in the last decade, as suggested by RAPID data. In addition, the NAO-driven slowdown in ocean heat transport could have contributed to the extremely cold conditions observed recently in and near the North Atlantic blob, as discussed by Yeager in a recent paper in Geophysical Research Letters. The NAO has again averaged positive in three of the last four winters. Alas, Yeager noted, “we can’t predict the NAO. That’s the missing part of our predictability.”


Figure 5. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), standardized and averaged across the January-to-March period for each year from 1950 to 2015. The black line is the five-year running mean. Based on monthly data, the 2016 value (not shown) will end up somewhere between 0.5 and 1.0. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.


What about the tropics?
Hurricane watchers may be wondering what all this means for the frequency of Atlantic tropical cyclones. In general, as demonstrated by Phil Klotzbach (Colorado State University) and colleagues, a stronger AMOC tends to lead to a more robust Atlantic hurricane season. There is typically a lag of several years before a switch in the AMOC influences sea-surface temperatures and hurricane activity. For example, the AMOC began strengthening in the early 1990s, followed by the spectacular onset of enhanced Atlantic hurricane activity in the mid-1990s. Likewise, the decline in the AMOC over the last decade has been followed by a ramp-down in Atlantic hurricane activity since 2013. In a Nature Geoscience paper last September, Klotzbach and colleagues argued that we may have already seen the end of the active cycle that began in the mid-1990s.

The potential arrival of La Niña later this year could prove favorable for Atlantic hurricanes, but the resilient cold blob may work in the opposite direction, according to Klotzbach. “When the far North Atlantic is cold, it tends to force wind and pressure patterns that then cool the tropical Atlantic,” he told me. “We've seen a significant cooling of the eastern subtropical Atlantic in recent weeks, and there is the potential that these cold anomalies could propagate into the tropical Atlantic for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.  If this occurs, there is the potential that the hurricane season may not be particularly active.”  

We’ll take a closer look at what 2016 may have in store next Thursday, when CSU issues its outlook for Atlantic hurricane activity.

Bob Henson


Climate Change Oceans Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the new Post, Mr. Henson....
Mr. Henson,

Doesn't the heat bottled up in the Gulf and along the Eastern Seaboard present the opportunity for what would be minor storms to undergo Rapid Intensification.

Also, is there the possibility that we get odd steering currents and end up with storms moving into non-traditional places or in non-traditional manners.
CoCoRaHS around the corner from me reported .06 this morning. Indian Hills PWS North of me showed .1 yesterday and .02 this morning, The Airport(KRAL) showed .04 yesterday and .01 this morning so far.  The Good day for rain is still Saturday but the forecast is about 1/3 what is was yesterday(.15)
Weirdness all around. Thanks for the detailed explanation.
We've had water temperatures close to 90 degrees in the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico the past couple seasons, yet we saw very little tropical activity in those areas.
To me the upper level environment (shear, Saharan dust/dry air) plays a much larger role in cyclone formation once we get into the peak of the season.
By August - September water temperatures are more than sufficient to support tropical cyclone development over a large part of the Atlantic Basin.
As usual, much higher totals down South, Hey Joe, Quit hogging all the rain...

Just started sprinkling again. Will take whatever we can get.

Thank you Mr Henson for you detailed report in this blog.

Thinking about that north Atlantic cold blog and its implications. It might just turn out to be the most significant ( Non man made thing?) on the surface of the planet if it continues to lurk and manifest where it is.
I have a feeling that this blob thing is like the twilight of pre dawn, not yet showing its true colours!

It could have the effect of damming a huge river and then standing back to see where the overflow goes and what damage it does. Except in reality this possible cold blockage makes all the rivers on Earth look like a trickle on a misty window by comparison.
Quoting 7. PedleyCA:

Just started sprinkling again. Will take whatever we can get.



Sprinkles up here in the Bay Area too. Too much dry air entraining into the SE flow aloft, and so far too little cold air dynamics.
Quoting 2. Qazulight:

Mr. Henson,

Doesn't the heat bottled up in the Gulf and along the Eastern Seaboard present the opportunity for what would be minor storms to undergo Rapid Intensification.

Also, is there the possibility that we get odd steering currents and end up with storms moving into non-traditional places or in non-traditional manners.

That presumes that this phenom is "bottling up" the heat in the tropics. If any bottling up is happening, it would simply be diverting the Gulf Stream into the subsurface layers. Another effect of the cold pool might well be to increase dust storms over North Africa, enhancing the SAL, thereby suppressing tropical developments.
It's interesting to see that there's another cold blob appearing between the tips of South America and West Antarctica, perhaps for the same reason as the blob south of Greenland: ice cap melting.
Interesting that the cold blob is by its existence stopping warm surface water going towards the northern latitudes.
It seems almost to be some sort of natural safety valve that is caused by heat melting the ice of Greenland and then prevents more heat getting to the icy shores of Greenland.
Interesting project for somebody to study a hundred years from now?

I personally think that the melting will continue with renewed zest this year and that the blob may become seen as "The Great Blue Cold Spot," on the surface of planet Earth.
Quoting 12. PlazaRed:

Interesting that the cold blob is by its existence stopping warm surface water going towards the northern latitudes.
It seems almost to be some sort of natural safety valve that is caused by heat melting the ice of Greenland and then prevents more heat getting to the icy shores of Greenland.
Interesting project for somebody to study a hundred years from now?

I personally think that the melting will continue with renewed zest this year and that the blob may become seen as "The Great Blue Cold Spot," on the surface of planet Earth.

But some of that warm water submerged by the fresh cold pool may be continuing further northward because of the surface blockage, which may account for why the ice cap is so eroded between western Eurasia and the Pole. Unmodified by surface radiation, the subsurface warm water is able to get under the ice cap with more heat than it would otherwise have had.
Thanks dok henson!

I'll wait to release my Hurricane Season Predictions till the CSU forecast comes out.
The 'Blob' is making Scotland the land that global warming forgot. I can't remember the last time we had a heat wave here. By 'heat wave', I mean temperature getting into the 70s for three days in a row.
Afternoon all.... very interesting piece here about the role of AMOC ... and another piece of the puzzle with regard to hurricane forecasts. Thanks for sharing, good gentlemen...
Quoting 11. BayFog:

It's interesting to see that there's another cold blob appearing between the tips of South America and West Antarctica, perhaps for the same reason as the blob south of Greenland: ice cap melting.
Same thought I had as I read .... I'm also thinking about the long-term impacts to air circulation..... is this somehow contributing to the drought situation over Brazil????
Pretty good piece on another segment of data that helps with my weather knowledge for sure. I knew of the belt (I think we all did after 2012 movie) but was not sure if it had been affected yet or not.
Looks like potential for accumulating snow in Eastern PA Sat April 9. Not unprecedented at all but still notable.

Likely worse freeze than 4/6 on the morning of Sunday 4/10 here in DC.


GFS looks like a taste of summer in its last six days from 4/18 or so out.
Quoting 18. Midweststorm:

Pretty good piece on another segment of data that helps with my weather knowledge for sure. I knew of the belt (I think we all did after 2012 movie) but was not sure if it had been affected yet or not.
think you mean this movie not 2012


I've been telling you people for years how important blobs were.
Well, Dragon got off the ground, but in the live coverage it was impossible to know just what was going on -- there were three, maybe four, simultaneous commentators during the launch, one talking about how great it was to be there and how great the whole enterprise was and how great it was that Dragon was upright on the pad and ready for a good launch -- this over 2 minutes into the flight, just before the first stage separation. It's a good thing (I hope) that the rocket engineers have a better handle on it than the audio-video engineers -- the coverage was a shambles.
.20 at mi casa so far. Here are some other amounts in Soo Cal.



And Storm #2 and 3 for Sat/Sun/Mon.

Does this cold NA blob cause more east coast troffing ?
So much moisture to work with, but no trigger to get much rain.........needed a little oomph, but like Ped says, we will take all we can get!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 AM PDT FRI APR 8 2016

UPDATE...THE MORNING SAN DIEGO SOUNDING REGISTERED PRECIPITABLE
WATER AT 1.23 INCHES...JUST SHY OF THE MAX RECORDED FOR APRIL WHICH
WAS 1.28 INCHES...IMPRESSIVE. THIS HIGH MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM THE SOUTH...AND LIGHT RAIN HAS
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...EVEN THE DESERTS
WHERE DESERT HOT SPRINGS HAS RECEIVED 0.20 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR.
  According to WU, Riverside Airport has .08 and Indian Hills PWS has reported .05, I sure hope they get that .54, CoCoRaHS is showing .06 as of 7AM this morning.
Quoting 21. Grothar:

I've been telling you people for years how important blobs were.

The underrated field of blobology.


Quoting 27. PedleyCA:

  According to WU, Riverside Airport has .08 and Indian Hills PWS has reported .05, I sure hope they get that .54, CoCoRaHS is showing .06 as of 7AM this morning.



Uh Oh! Hope the 12z runs are wrong and it comes into Soo Cal instead.

Per NWS San Diego

INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING WITH THE COLD CORE LOW MOVING IN
LATE SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WAS A SUBTLE SHIFT SOUTH ON THE
12Z MODEL RUNS...TAKING THE BRUNT OF THE ACTION INTO NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...NOT HOLDING FIRM ON THAT
SOLUTION...AND MODELS STILL SHOW DECENT QPF LOCALLY

12z GFS


18Z GFS
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interact ive-sea-ice-graph/
Despite being 'the biggest threat facing humanity' climate change and its impacts fail to make headlines, says study

Even as 60 million people around the world face severe hunger because of El Niño and millions more because of climate change, top European and American media outlets are neglecting to cover the issues as a top news item, says a new research report funded by the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) today.

Link
33. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA/NASA/ERAU
AREA:: Trops - ePac to ATL
D&T:: 20160408
OBS:: nothing in particular just decided to post a test clip.
SAT imgry:: visFog (LwClouds)
NOTE1:: (time intervals vary)
NOTE2:: Best played in super-wide theater org. dimension is 1786x640


WYS 628x225 or @Youtube via (org 1786x640) https://youtu.be/00ups7pTQbs
well now this is a 1st no models forecast a EL Nino now too return that some in new

Following this site for 11 years now very sad and gloomy in here keep your chin up and god bless!!
Notice how the NOAA temperature percentile doesn't cover as much of the Southern Hemisphere as it does the Northern Hemisphere...
Quoting 32. RobertWC:

Despite being 'the biggest threat facing humanity' climate change and its impacts fail to make headlines, says study

Even as 60 million people around the world face severe hunger because of El Nio and millions more because of climate change, top European and American media outlets are neglecting to cover the issues as a top news item, says a new research report funded by the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) today.

Link
. Everybody is so certain that Climate Change or Global Warming is caused by Humans. It could be caused by some sort of Solar influence. Plus, how do you even know Global Warming even exists? Supposedly the Earth is Billions of years old but, accurate temperature recordings have only been around for close to 100 years. There is too much of a data gap to extrapolate this accurately.
I would think the record sea ice melting has something to do with the anomaly too, cold anomaly south of the Falklands as well.
Quoting 38. hotroddan:

. Everybody is so certain that Climate Change or Global Warming is caused by Humans. It could be caused by some sort of Solar influence. Plus, how do you even know Global Warming even exists? Supposedly the Earth is Billions of years old but, accurate temperature recordings have only been around for close to 100 years. There is too much of a data gap to extrapolate this accurately.


Well, Dan, there are so many different ways of taking measurements that don't involve just the last 100+ years of temperatures. Ice cores going back 26,000 years do in fact show some fluctuations in temperature. But since about 100 years ago, they show unmistakable upwards trends that correlate very well with the increase in carbon emissions from the beginning of the Industrial age.

That is just one of many ways of showing the effect that human activity has on climate change.

One way that would really test the thesis? Follow the recommendations and reduce carbon emissions worldwide in a dramatic fashion. If it doesn't have any effect, then something else is the cause, and all that oil and gas is still in the ground waiting to be exploited and profited from.

If we do nothing, then at a certain point, it will be very hard to profit from oil and gas because people will be too busy fighting over food and water to drive their SUVs.

As I've said before, if we do what Al Gore and others say, and they're wrong, the worst that happens is your grandchildren can't drive a Camaro around all day. If we don't do what Al Gore and others say, and they were right, the worst that happens is your grandchildren don't have food to eat.

They're your grandchildren. You decide what's more important.
How do we know humans are the primary cause of the warming?

A large body of evidence supports the conclusion that human activity is the primary driver of recent warming. This evidence has accumulated over several decades, and from hundreds of studies. The first line of evidence is our basic physical understanding of how greenhouse gases trap heat, how the climate system responds to increases in greenhouse gases, and how other human and natural factors influence climate.

The second line of evidence is from indirect estimates of climate changes over the last 1,000 to 2,000 years. These estimates are often obtained from living things and their remains (like tree rings and corals) which provide a natural archive of climate variations. These indicators show that the recent temperature rise is clearly unusual in at least the last 1,000 years. The third line of evidence is based on comparisons of actual climate with computer models of how we expect climate to behave under certain human influences.

For example, when climate models are run with historical increases in greenhouse gases, they show gradual warming of the Earth and ocean surface, increases in ocean heat content, a rise in global sea level, and general retreat of sea ice and snow cover.

These and other aspects of modeled climate change are in agreement with observations.



Over the last 800,000 years, natural factors have caused the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration to vary within a range of about 170 to 300 parts per million (ppm). The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by roughly 35 percent since the start of the industrial revolution.

Globally, over the past several decades, about 80 percent of human-induced CO2 emissions came from the burning of fossil fuels, while about 20 percent resulted from deforestation and associated agricultural practices. In the absence of strong control measures, emissions projected for this century would result in the CO2 concentration increasing to a level that is roughly 2 to 3 times the highest level occurring over the glacial-interglacial era that spans the last 800,000 or more years.
When one comes into this forum without even knowing the basic facts of the known and observed warming, your really hitting a Battleship of actual science with a ball peen hammer of duh'.

Tink, tink,..

Yeah..that should werk well.

: P
Absolutely beautiful launch with great sound. Click on the pic to see the rest of the series.

Guess we need to rethink our ideas about "true north"
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/04/160408 -climate-change-shifts-earth-poles-water-loss/

Quoting 44. WatermansDaughter:

Guess we need to rethink our ideas about "true north"
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/04/160408 -climate-change-shifts-earth-poles-water-loss/



Always followed earth orientation. Checked a site I hadn't in a while. This was an interesting way to graph it. It's the north pole plotted from 1962 til now in 3-dimension.


credit IERS
Impressive cell has blossomed over the San Joaquin Valley to our east in the past hour. Heavy rain right now in Merced. The upper and midlevel flow is carrying it in our direction here in the SF Bay Area. It should get some extra lift as it crosses the Diablo Range. NWS says any convection in the current setup will be able to top out just above 35K which is pretty good for our area.
Rain total at mi casa from storm #1 is 0.24. Let's hope we can double or triple that with storms #2 and 3! That would give Ped a chance need for a sandbag use. Here's hoping!
Saturday hello with thanks to Bob for the interesting entry: "Bob blogs about blob" :-) Hope that cold waters won't switch off the Atlantic heating for Europe. I'm living exactly on latitude 50 north, mind (whole US is south of that, huh): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/50th_parallel_north


Meanwhile the "dustination" of that former Saharan and Mediterranean low moved all the way up to Poland and will scratch even the east of Germany today. You can see it on the map above in the upper right.


German wetteronline explains today that the rippling of the clouds currently over Poland et al. are due to the load of Saharan dust.

Yesterday traffic of an airport in Cyprus had to be diverted due to the dust, today there's a health warning: Cyprus: Dust level warning April 9th, 2016

The public, and especially vulnerable groups, have been urged to avoid going outdoors because of increased dust levels in the atmosphere, the labour inspection department warned on Saturday. According to the met office, the dust, which has come in from the Sahara, will be dense on Saturday but is expected to subside on Sunday. ...

-------------------------

Meanwhile perservering severe weather in South America and especially Argentina and Uruguay has moved a bit north, now affecting Paraguay and Brazil too. More reports of evacuations and loss of crops.


Current saved satellite pic of the storms.

India: Heatwave deters turtles from coming to rookery
TNN | Apr 9, 2016, 06.34 AM IST
Berhampur: Wildlife authorities have lost hope of mass nesting of the endangered Olive Ridley sea turtles at Rushikulya due to the early onset of summer. ...

Have a recreative weekend, everyone!
Storm #2 for Soo Cal at 30N 125W 450 miles WSW of San Diego CA getting more organized. One can see the long moisture tap SW, all the way back to near Hawaii.

Quoting 48. barbamz:

Short Saturday hello with thanks to Bob for the interesting entry: "Bob blogs about blob" :-) Hope that cold waters won't switch off the Atlantic heating for Europe. I'm living exactly on latitude 50 north, mind (whole US is south of that, huh): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/50th_parallel_north


Meanwhile the "dustination" of that former Saharan and Mediterranean low moved all the way up to Poland and will scratch even the east of Germany today. You can see it on the map above in the upper right. Yesterday an airport in Cyprus has to be closed due to the dust, today there's a health warning:

Cyprus: Dust level warning
April 9th, 2016

The public, and especially vulnerable groups, have been urged to avoid going outdoors because of increased dust levels in the atmosphere, the labour inspection department warned on Saturday. According to the met office, the dust, which has come in from the Sahara, will be dense on Saturday but is expected to subside on Sunday. ...

-------------------------

Meanwhile perservering severe weather in South America and especially Argentina and Uruguay has moved a bit north, now affecting Paraguay and Brazil too. More reports of evacuations and loss of crops.


Current saved satellite pic of the storms.

India: Heatwave deters turtles from coming to rookery
TNN | Apr 9, 2016, 06.34 AM IST
Berhampur: Wildlife authorities have lost hope of mass nesting of the endangered Olive Ridley sea turtles at Rushikulya due to the early onset of summer. ...

Have a recreative weekend, everyone!


Yikes! Looks like Bejing on a bad day.
Quoting 43. Skyepony:

Absolutely beautiful launch with great sound. Click on the pic to see the rest of the series.




Saw the video of booster? land on the barge in the water perfectly! They seem to be doing real well now. Congrats to the whole team!
ClimateCrocks Tweet of the Day: This Year’s Temps from Ed Hawkins

And, global land temperatures by month since 1856

Good morning.

10 days after the CFSv2 fix,it has slowly gone down and now it forecasts Moderate La Nina around the August,September and October period.

ACE can add up quickly in the western carib. and gulf of Mexico. last yr was interesting this yr could be scary
Usually colder waters are more dense and sink, the higher pressure at the depths does work on the water and warms it, causing it to lift. However melted sea ice likely contributes to this colder water being less dense than usual and thus it doesn't move much. That is my guess.
Quoting 53. Tropicsweatherpr:

Good morning.

10 days after the CFSv2 fix,it has slowly gone down and now it forecasts Moderate La Nina around the August,September and October period.




Maybe a similar season akin to 14 and 15 coming up, accumulation of most ACE post-peak?
Quoting 45. Skyepony:


Always followed earth orientation. Checked a site I hadn't in a while. This was an interesting way to graph it. It's the north pole plotted from 1962 til now in 3-dimension.


credit IERS
Thanks for the great visual Skye.Barb, I hope the pole shift (eastward toward Europe) doesn't exacerbate any effect of a slowing Gulf Stream for those above the 50th latitude!
The wind blew so hard for so long here in Sioux Falls, 30 to 40 mph for 3 days, I think it blew every allergen in the country into the city. I even heard reports that Dorothy and Toto were spotted a few times

This is what my brother in Ohio woke up to this morning


Quoting 35. Tazmanian:

well now this is a 1st no models forecast a EL Nino now too return that some in new




Yep
Oh man Scott must be getting really really mad now lol

I know he was really hoping to have the El Niño make a comeback stronger than ever too

Anyway I still say transition will happen sooner La Niña will come sooner than expected and it could be stronger than what models are currently showing

One of the reasons I think the models aren't showing this is because of the Spring Predictability Barrier
Quoting 54. islander101010:

ACE can add up quickly in the western carib. and gulf of Mexico. last yr was interesting this yr could be scary


I think this year we could see a combination of storms in the Caribbean and GOM like the Carib/GOM storms of 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008, possibly 2010

I also think this year we may very well end this Cat 5 drought we've been having
Quoting 58. WatermansDaughter:

Thanks for the great visual Skye.Barb, I hope the pole shift (eastward toward Europe) doesn't exacerbate any effect of a slowing Gulf Stream for those above the 50th latitude!
Note that the x and y scales are in arc seconds -- 60 to the minute, 60 minutes to the degree, and the greatest excursion is a bit over 0.500. There are approximately 70 miles on the Earth's surface for each degree. It's not clear whether the excursion equals a bit over 1/2 an arc-second or 1/2 a minute, but in the latter case the amount is about half a mile -- not a really significant shift out of 25000 miles circumference.
Levi Cowan
‏@TropicalTidbits

Dunno how much this reflects PBL, but EPS forecasting nice 850mb temp dipole in Atlantic. Continues through mid-May.



Hmm!! Very interesting for sure!!!
Quoting 65. stormchaser19:

Levi Cowan
‏@TropicalTidbits

Dunno how much this reflects PBL, but EPS forecasting nice 850mb temp dipole in Atlantic. Continues through mid-May.



Hmm!! Very interesting for sure!!!


Well what does this mean
Quoting 66. wunderkidcayman:



Well what does this mean
Warming mdr.
68. vis0
Quoting 41. Patrap:

How do we know humans are the primary cause of the warming?

A large body of evidence supports the conclusion that human activity is the primary driver of recent warming. This evidence has accumulated over several decades, and from hundreds of studies. The first line of evidence is our basic physical understanding of how greenhouse gases trap heat, how the climate system responds to increases in greenhouse gases, and how other human and natural factors influence climate.

The second line of evidence is from indirect estimates of climate changes over the last 1,000 to 2,000 years. These estimates are often obtained from living things and their remains (like tree rings and corals) which provide a natural archive of climate variations. These indicators show that the recent temperature rise is clearly unusual in at least the last 1,000 years. The third line of evidence is based on comparisons of actual climate with computer models of how we expect climate to behave under certain human influences.

For example, when climate models are run with historical increases in greenhouse gases, they show gradual warming of the Earth and ocean surface, increases in ocean heat content, a rise in global sea level, and general retreat of sea ice and snow cover.

These and other aspects of modeled climate change are in agreement with observations.



Over the last 800,000 years, natural factors have caused the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration to vary within a range of about 170 to 300 parts per million (ppm). The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by roughly 35 percent since the start of the industrial revolution.

Globally, over the past several decades, about 80 percent of human-induced CO2 emissions came from the burning of fossil fuels, while about 20 percent resulted from deforestation and associated agricultural practices. In the absence of strong control measures, emissions projected for this century would result in the CO2 concentration increasing to a level that is roughly 2 to 3 times the highest level occurring over the glacial-interglacial era that spans the last 800,000 or more years.


If i'm incorrect OOPS,
but i'd rather try, make an error and learn that stay in the same static mold as a t*rd ...
(apologies to certain forms of t*rds they actually can do more ...fertilize, grow delicious foods) 
...as someone who make the decision not to learn due to a selfish manner of thinking.

short n sweet version::
shifted 2 pixels to the right as to  the Y axis line as it has to represent a time in going backwards/forward thus move/shift to represent the scale in time...the sweet part? it'll be on Sunday when the breakfast sideboard is posted.

 

long and sour (bad after-taste) version :: My apology but i have to point out what i think is an error.

The graph cannot have a straight upward (or downward) line since its representing the years in motion.

The Y axis in representing the years has to shift to the right.

If i measured the pixels correctly to represent ~100 years (ie 2008 till 2100AD) it should shift .40% of ONE pixel to the right, that .40% MAX'd at the top of the line.

i being a considerate person (i keep telling myself, almost believing it) PLUS to have the shift show up as to ones eyes, shifted it 5 times more or 2 pixels to the right. Allow the aniGIF to play and watch closely the long upward line shift to the right. {Sarcasm] This means skeptic$ can use this 4 times more of a shift to show their point of view as opposed to it being only shifted HALF a pixel.[Sarcasm]

i posted this cause i can see skeptic$ using the straight line to ask some teacher on some news channel "...should not the line move to the right to measure time, years in this case..." (even pull out an Einstein reference showing that time lines have to shift, and say Einstein can't be wrong) then without showing how miniscule (.40%..that less than HALF a pixel.) it should be moved instead skeptic$ just leave it as its wrong and end the conversation there. A jury if not well educated and NOT shown the amount it should be moved and are just told of the lack of shifting error could give a case to skeptic$.   i've heard/read it happen in the 1980s several times.  So lets make sure our T's are dotted and eyes not crossed so we can shift the public views towards the upholders of true science research.
Quoting 67. Gearsts:

Warming mdr.
Quoting 66. wunderkidcayman:





Well what does this mean


Exactly, and quite a nice pattern. Although is mid may, you would like that to be there through August.
So the Guv'na of Fla gets chewed out by a Woman in A Starbucks as to Him cutting medicaid in Fla.

The Guv'na's response is to run a attack add on the Woman?

Gee, remind me why we avoid going there again Patrick?

Semper Fi'
I read the # as a U. Since he talked about fertilizer in the next sentence.
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 4h4 hours ago
Significant trend in the NMME for a faster transition into La Nina.
Quoting 53. Tropicsweatherpr:

Good morning.

10 days after the CFSv2 fix,it has slowly gone down and now it forecasts Moderate La Nina around the August,September and October period.




sorry but i saw it 1st and your late with the news in posting that has i posted it 1st last night for every one too see see commit 35
Out of curiosity, when do African tropical waves typically begin to start forming? May or June?
We look to the GOM and Caribbean in May-June as the Atlantic takes some time to begin spitting out healthy waves.





You probably already know that oil and gas products fuel cars and heat homes – 94 per cent of transportation demand in Canada is supplied by refined petroleum products and more than half of Canadian homes are heated by natural gas.

But in what other ways are crude oil and natural gas products part of your everyday life?

Canadians are answering this question through a new website, letskeepcanadamoving.ca. We’ve combined some of their ideas with some other examples to create this list of six ways your life could be different without the energy moved by pipelines.


Energy fact: 97 per cent of Canada’s natural gas and crude oil production is moved by transmission pipelines.

1. Your morning routine would change

What do you do first in the morning? Brush your teeth? Go for a run? The materials in toothbrushes and running shoes are made from petrochemicals produced when petroleum is refined.

What about your mid-morning snack? You might not be able to eat your favourite B.C. gala apples because the agricultural industry relies on trains and trucks to get “our fruits and vegetables from the farmers’ fields to our kitchen tables,” said Albertan Michael Ervin. (Get more of Michael’s story)

2. You would have to rethink your wardrobe

If you love your wrinkle-free shirt, you can probably thank oil delivered by pipelines. Materials used to make nylon, elastic, rayon, polyester and even “permanent press” items come from petroleum. If you wear glasses, the lenses and frames were probably made using a derivative of crude oil.


Did you know? There are over 6,000 products that are made from petroleum.

3. Your health may be affected

Think of your last trip to the doctor’s office or hospital. Did your doctor or nurse use latex gloves or disposable syringes? These are petroleum products. Even heart valves and artificial limbs couldn’t be produced without oil and gas.

How would it affect our health if we didn’t have these life saving health products?

4. You would have to cancel your trip to Paris

About 10 per cent of every barrel of oil is used for jet fuel to power airplanes and helicopters.

Petroleum is needed to power airplanes, but it is also helping to make air travel more efficient.

“Airplanes use less fuel today because they are lighter, and they’re lighter because they use polymers made from hydrocarbons,” said Andre Brunell from Montreal. (Read Andre’s story)

How would your life be different if you couldn’t travel by plane?

5. You wouldn’t be reading this blog post

That’s right – the plastics used to make electronics such as computers and phones are made with petrochemicals. Without oil and gas, you may have to resort to using a carrier pigeon.

6. You would have a different understanding of the universe

According to NASA, “a space shuttle’s large external tank is loaded with more than 500,000 gallons of super-cold liquid oxygen and liquid hydrogen, which are mixed and burned together to form the fuel for the orbiter’s three main rocket engines.”

This hydrogen is derived from petroleum. How would your idea of the solar system be different without knowledge discovered thanks to space exploration?
Quoting 71. Patrap:

I dont know what t#rds means, but if you are referring to Folks who have cognitive or mental issues, I strongly urge you to remove my handle from your post.

Now.

We at portlight do not and wont ever use that derogatory term in any way.

Thanks vizo'

I think you are inserting the wrong vowel, pat. Context supports me on this. (I briefly read it the same way as you.)
looks like without oil and its products,future generations go back to living like they did in the early 1700's..a catch 22 when it comes to global warming,damned if we do and damned if we don't.
Quoting 75. HurricaneFan:

Out of curiosity, when do African tropical waves typically begin to start forming? May or June?
Doesn't really start to get going until July-August.
Quoting 79. LargoFl:

looks like without oil and its products,future generations go back to living like they did in the early 1700's..a catch 22 when it comes to global warming,damned if we do and damned if we don't.

Um, no. Just no. For starters, relatively little CO2 is released to the atmosphere by latex gloves compared to that produced by internal combustion engines. In fact, the entire list in your post is irrelevant. It's misdirection and bum logic.

Sorry.
Just so folks globally here know, that post # 77 is from this organization's site.



And that is the logical reason we get no link to it from the poster.

It is written by a Canadian Oil and Pipeline company.

I'm sure there is no bias there. : P

Gee, Huh? Imagine dat?

www.cepe.com

It's been raining all night long here in the SF Bay Area. We seem to have lucked out in being located along a stationary moisture band being rotated around a broad upper low to the SW of California. The oddity of it is that the upper flow has been from the east, now veering more to the NE, but still juicy, rather than rained out by orographic flow over the Sierra. A closer look at the satellite shows that the upper flow is interacting with a lower level southwesterly flow off the ocean. Flood advisory out for the Central Valley to our east.

Quoting 74. Tazmanian:



sorry but i saw it 1st and your late with the news in posting that has i posted it 1st last night for every one too see see commit 35
It doesn't matter if you posted that image first.
Levi Cowan
‏@TropicalTidbits
Current longrange predictions of Atlantic flow could put the SSTA pattern closer to 2013, which is in the analog mix

District of Columbia Severe Watches & WarningsNOAA Weather Radio

Watches & WarningsFreeze Warning, Wind AdvisoryIssued: 7:59 AM EDT Apr. 9, 2016 – National Weather Service

... Wind Advisory remains in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to
10 PM EDT this evening...
... Freeze warning remains in effect from midnight tonight to
10 am EDT Sunday...

* temperatures... mid to upper 20s tonight.

* Timing... the strongest winds are expected to be from mid 
afternoon through this evening.

* Winds... northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* Impacts... unprotected vegetation sensitive to freezing
temperatures will be killed or damaged.

* Impacts... scattered tree and power line damage. Difficulty
driving high profile vehicles.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A freeze warning means sub-freezing temperatures are expected.
These conditions will kill sensitive crops and other vegetation.

A Wind Advisory means that wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph are
expected. Secure outdoor furniture and take care driving high
profile vehicles.

Quoting 41. Patrap:

How do we know humans are the primary cause of the warming?

A large body of evidence supports the conclusion that human activity is the primary driver of recent warming. This evidence has accumulated over several decades, and from hundreds of studies. The first line of evidence is our basic physical understanding of how greenhouse gases trap heat, how the climate system responds to increases in greenhouse gases, and how other human and natural factors influence climate.

The second line of evidence is from indirect estimates of climate changes over the last 1,000 to 2,000 years. These estimates are often obtained from living things and their remains (like tree rings and corals) which provide a natural archive of climate variations. These indicators show that the recent temperature rise is clearly unusual in at least the last 1,000 years. The third line of evidence is based on comparisons of actual climate with computer models of how we expect climate to behave under certain human influences.

For example, when climate models are run with historical increases in greenhouse gases, they show gradual warming of the Earth and ocean surface, increases in ocean heat content, a rise in global sea level, and general retreat of sea ice and snow cover.

These and other aspects of modeled climate change are in agreement with observations.



Over the last 800,000 years, natural factors have caused the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration to vary within a range of about 170 to 300 parts per million (ppm). The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by roughly 35 percent since the start of the industrial revolution.

Globally, over the past several decades, about 80 percent of human-induced CO2 emissions came from the burning of fossil fuels, while about 20 percent resulted from deforestation and associated agricultural practices. In the absence of strong control measures, emissions projected for this century would result in the CO2 concentration increasing to a level that is roughly 2 to 3 times the highest level occurring over the glacial-interglacial era that spans the last 800,000 or more years.
Considering Humans did not have accurate ways of measuring C02 levels hundreds of thousands of years ago I think it is safe to say that the data on the chart is inaccurate.

Quoting 79. LargoFl:

looks like without oil and its products,future generations go back to living like they did in the early 1700's..a catch 22 when it comes to global warming,damned if we do and damned if we don't.






Not necessarily so, just like we are developing alternative sources of energy I believe that we can also find new ways to create the other products that oil creates. One thing that I wish we could do is tap in to all the extra CO2 and form some of the above products with it.

I believe that we are headed in this direction, not going to happen over night though.
Progress will be made.

I do like your post though pointing out other products that we use daily that we dont connect oil with.
#91

Well u can run wit dat all you want, as we in the Science community and Society at large will go wit dis.


800,000 Year Record of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Concentrations

CO2 Changes

Carbon dioxide concentration (parts per million) for the last 800,000 years, measured from trapped bubbles of air in an Antarctic ice core . The 2008 observed value is from the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii and projections are based upon future emission scenarios. More information on the data can be found in the Climate Change Impacts on the U.S. report.

Quoting 91. hotroddan:

Considering Humans did not have accurate ways of measuring C02 levels hundreds of thousands of years ago I think it is safe to say that the data on the chart is inaccurate.
Considering Humans were not around to accurately measure the size of living dinosaurs hundreds of millions of years ago, I think it is safe to say that they weren't as large as we've been led to believe.

(Pssst: it's called "proxy data", and it's really cool. You should read about it sometime.)


all the cold air comes too me nothing will remain but the warming
.13" so far for the two days as of 7AM and per CoCoRaHS (ca-rv-19), supposed to resume around 12:30

I'm on board with AGW so please do not misconstrue my post as to being a denier.

I struggle with using values obtained from ice and values from flasks in the same chart.
I have been trying to read up on how the measurements are analyzed but seem to always get in over my head.

If we took an ice core sample from the south pole in the same vicinity where the flask measurements are taken would the values be similar?
It's a Spr-inter Wonderland here just south of the 40th parallel. Nature seems confused... The bleeding hearts popped early, way ahead of their usual Mother's Day appearance. 33F and huge clumping flakes coming down. Freeze on the way for tonight.
Quoting 74. Tazmanian:



sorry but i saw it 1st and your late with the news in posting that has i posted it 1st last night for every one too see see commit 35


The graphic is different as it has the three month periods.
Quoting 98. WatermansDaughter:

It's a Spr-inter Wonderland here just south of the 40th parallel. Nature seems confused... The bleeding hearts popped early, way ahead of their usual Mother's Day appearance. 33F and huge clumping flakes coming down. Freeze on the way for tonight.
all that come forth early is to be destroyed
101. vis0

Quoting 45. Skyepony:


Always followed earth orientation. Checked a site I hadn't in a while. This was an interesting way to graph it. It's the north pole plotted from 1962 til now in 3-dimension.


credit IERS
Darn you!!! you found (know of) one of my 28 sites i use to use to help me with my Galacsic Calendar.  foiled?
Good Morning Class!

Some rain going on in California. A band from near Tahoe to the coast near San Francisco and a trof set to give Soo Cal some rain later today with it's first band of showersjust off the coast of Soo Cal with the low 200 miles further west.







And some rainfall totals for past 72 hours in Soo Cal

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO
603 AM PDT SATURDAY APR 09 2016

*STATIONS ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL MAY NOT SHOW
ACCURATE ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION.

72-HOUR PRECIPITATION STORM TOTALS AS OF

_________________________603 AM SATURDAY_________________________


.TOP RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ALL ZONES

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEVATION(FT)

1. YUCAIPA RIDGE 1.65 * 9020
2. CREST PARK 1.57 5624
3. RIMFOREST 1.50 5710
4. RUNNING SPRINGS FS 1.47 6076
5. CRESTLINE 1.40 5100
6. HEAPS PEAK RAWS 1.31 6350
7. LYONS PEAK 1.23 3710
8. RAYWOOD FLATS 1.18 7097
9. PANORAMA POINT 1.14 3887
10.RUNNING SPRINGS PARK 1.10 5440

And a lot more locations

Link
This doesn't look very promising, well unless you live in Ventura Co.

Here comes hopefully our "lil fren" into Soo Cal for some much needed rain.

Quoting 105. PedleyCA:

This doesn't look very promising, well unless you live in Ventura Co.


spit wont amount too much maybe better with nothing

Quoting 107. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

spit wont amount too much maybe better with nothing
I just have to be patient. Joe's post was the one I was trying to post and he beat me to it. That one looks like something is brewing. WU has around 50% chance of .29 forecast. Time will tell how much we get...

Quoting 105. PedleyCA:

This doesn't look very promising, well unless you live in Ventura Co.




Just the first band...........More to come.........let's see if it holds together and where the low comes ashore.Hopefully #2 is better than #1.
Quoting 79. LargoFl:

looks like without oil and its products,future generations go back to living like they did in the early 1700's..a catch 22 when it comes to global warming,damned if we do and damned if we don't.

That just shows a lack of imagination on your part. Homo sapiens is a very inventive species and we've solved plenty of problems in the past. Why would you think this problem is impossible to solve without taking us back to some early standard of living? Certainly solving the problem will cause changes but that doesn't mean we have to go back to living like our ancestors.
Quoting 91. hotroddan:

Considering Humans did not have accurate ways of measuring C02 levels hundreds of thousands of years ago I think it is safe to say that the data on the chart is inaccurate.

What makes you think measuring CO2 levels in ice core bubbles is inaccurate? Do you think the scientists who do this sort of thing missed something? Do you think their efforts to validate the data are somehow wrong?
.
Quoting 88. Gearsts:

Levi Cowan
‏@TropicalTidbits
Current longrange predictions of Atlantic flow could put the SSTA pattern closer to 2013, which is in the analog mix


I think the blog will truly have a collective meltdown if we go through another 2013 style season.
go outside look up at the sun all the free energy anyone ever needs is right up there in the sky and its free just need to make and buy the device to capture it all
Quoting 79. LargoFl:

looks like without oil and its products,future generations go back to living like they did in the early 1700's..a catch 22 when it comes to global warming,damned if we do and damned if we don't.

Oil is a commodity sold on the world market. When we fill up at the pump, we have no way of knowing the source of the oil that was made into gas. Much of it comes from places that hate us, and the dollars we spent go to fund terrorists.
Is our petroleum fueled lifestyle so precious that we have to tolerate the terrorism it helps to support? What is wrong with no longer buying the only thing they have to sell and telling them to go pound sand?
Quoting 112. CybrTeddy:

.

I think the blog will truly have a collective meltdown if we go through another 2013 style season.

There's always that chance that the season turns out like 2013 was supposed to be.
We just play the wait and see game here in Soo Cal.Hopefully the models are correct and we get wet!


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
935 AM PDT SAT APR 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE SHOWER CHANCES INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT. DRY AND
A LITTLE WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY. COOLER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AND SMALL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. WARMER AND DRY FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST STRENGTHENS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN IMPRESSIVE SPIN ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
OVER THE PACIFIC WHICH IS POISED TO IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
MORNING SAN DIEGO SOUNDING SHOWED THAT DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE
AREA...WITH PW DOWN TO 0.76 INCHES. HOWEVER...ONE LOOK AT RADAR AND
ONE CAN SEE SHOWERS OVER THE OCEAN IN A FORMIDABLE BAND SOME 10-20
NM OFFSHORE. THIS IS WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC LOW AND IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT MOISTURE SURGE. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND TODAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY
AFTER 1030 AM.

WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS BAND TO SEE HOW IT HOLDS TOGETHER. HI-RES
MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON IT. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY
PRODUCE LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING PARTICULARY IN ORANGE COUNTY SHOULD
CELLS TRAIN OVER ANY ONE LOCATION. SO WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING
NEAR TERM TRENDS TODAY.

THE THRUST OF THE POTENTIAL HEAVIER CONVECTION/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD ARRIVE AFTER DARK THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW NEARS THE COAST BY 12Z. POTENTIAL
IMPACTS WILL BE ISOLATED TSTORMS MOVING ONSHORE PRODUCING LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL BE ASSESSING WHETHER A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA TODAY
AFTER AN ANALYSIS OF THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND MODEL RUNS.
THE 00Z MODEL RUNS AGAIN TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTH...WITH NOW BOTH GFS
AND EC TAKING THE LOW INTO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ALONG WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY.

THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH IS EXPECTED WITH THE GREATER
TOTALS ON THE SOUTH COAST OF THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO ORANGE COUNTY. GREATER RAINFALL RATES
ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT FROM BANDS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING EXPECTED AND
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO THE INSTABILITY
FROM THE UPPER LOW...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AROUND ONE INCH
(AROUND 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL) ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL
RATES AND RAINFALL TOTALS.

THE THIRD IN THE SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA AND FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

SNOW LEVELS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FEET WITH SNOWFALL
MOSTLY ABOVE 7500 FEET.
Quoting 112. CybrTeddy:

.

I think the blog will truly have a collective meltdown if we go through another 2013 style season.


I think it's a bit silly, even for Levi, to lend credence to such a long-range prediction. Although the initialization is decent in light of the titular north Atlantic cold pool, plus the recent slew of inactive years consistent with the AMO going negative again, so you never know. If any of this is true, I suspect actual activity will be at the lower end of La Nina extremes.
Earlier this week I was posting maps showing a possible severe setup for early next week . The setup really hasn't developed as well as I thought it would. The front will setup more zonal (from west to east) than I had anticipated, which decreases shear values (not as much of a change in wind direction with altitude.
There should still be enough instability to cause some severe weather on Sunday and Monday. SPC is only calling for a slight risk for both days.

The setup shifts a little to the S.E. for Monday.


Sunday's discussion
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT SAT APR 09 2016

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS/OK AND
OZARKS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST
TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN KANSAS...MISSOURI AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER PORTIONS
OF MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO AND THE ADJACENT UPPER MIDWEST.

...TX SOUTH PLAINS/WESTERN NORTH TX TO WESTERN/SOUTHERN OK...
WHILE NEAR-DRYLINE CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK THROUGH
PEAK HEATING...OWING TO THE LATTER-PERIOD TIMING OF THE APPROACHING
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SUFFICIENT
HEATING/MIXING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR/EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
MODERATE BUOYANCY BY PEAK HEATING...WITH 35-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF INITIAL SUPERCELLS. PENDING THE NUMBER OF
STORMS/MESOSCALE DETAILS...AN MCS MAY DEVELOP/SPREAD
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH TX AND ADJACENT
SOUTHERN OK SUNDAY EVENING. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE PRIMARY RISK. THE
OVERALL TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY INITIALLY MODEST
MOISTURE...AND A DAMAGING WIND RISK IS LARGELY CONTINGENT UPON MCS
DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY EVENING.

...NORTHERN OK/SOUTHERN KS TO LOWER MO VALLEY/MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. INITIALLY...WARM ADVECTION IS LIKELY TO
CONTRIBUTE TO AN EASTWARD MOVEMENT/EXPANSION OF EARLY-DAY ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS AND MIDDLE MS
VALLEY. A FEW STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY. SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING FRONT INITIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN/EASTERN KS INTO MO. SEVERE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
RISK...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL.

..GUYER.. 04/09/2016
Quoting 110. riverat544:


That just shows a lack of imagination on your part. Homo sapiens is a very inventive species and we've solved plenty of problems in the past. Why would you think this problem is impossible to solve without taking us back to some early standard of living? Certainly solving the problem will cause changes but that doesn't mean we have to go back to living like our ancestors.
Hi river, actually homo sapiens are pretty stupid, if we were as smart as some think, we wouldn't be having these discussions on climate change, like we do on this weather blog all the time. As of right now and far into the future, their is no know substitute for those 6000 products produced by petroleum.
Quoting 112. CybrTeddy:

.

I think the blog will truly have a collective meltdown if we go through another 2013 style season.


Wasn't the SST pattern favourable though, hence why so many agencies were predicting an active-hyper active season in 2013? Biggest problem in 2013 was the weakening of the thermohaline circulation which brought about higher wind shear/drier more stable air/stronger trade winds and less convergence in ITCZ. The gulf stream is proving very strong this year compared to 2013:





Of course that can all change in a couple months. We'll likely have La Nina in place for the peak of the hurricane season as well. This year will certainly be an interesting one.
Quoting 120. Envoirment:



Wasn't the SST pattern favourable though, hence why so many agencies were predicting an active-hyper active season in 2013? Biggest problem in 2013 was the weakening of the thermohaline circulation which brought about higher wind shear/drier more stable air/stronger trade winds and less convergence in ITCZ. The gulf stream is proving very strong this year compared to 2013:





Of course that can all change in a couple months. We'll likely have La Nina in place for the peak of the hurricane season as well. This year will certainly be an interesting one.
More like the post 90
Quoting 94. Neapolitan:

Considering Humans were not around to accurately measure the size of living dinosaurs hundreds of millions of years ago, I think it is safe to say that they weren't as large as we've been led to believe.

(Pssst: it's called "proxy data", and it's really cool. You should read about it sometime.)

Wait! You mean physics has predictable consequences useful in determining ancient temperature and atmospheric composition? Who knew? I mean, aside from climatologists, chemists, biologists, physicists...and most other scientists...and those that read the results of those folks' studies?

But aside from them, who knew? 8^P
Quoting 119. NativeSun:

Hi river, actually homo sapiens are pretty stupid, if we were as smart as some think, we wouldn't be having these discussions on climate change, like we do on this weather blog all the time. As of right now and far into the future, their is no know substitute for those 6000 products produced by petroleum.

Nor does there necessarily need to be. However, it doesn't then follow logically that we must burn petroleum. See how that works?
Quoting 117. KoritheMan:



I think it's a bit silly, even for Levi, to lend credence to such a long-range prediction. Although the initialization is decent in light of the titular north Atlantic cold pool, plus the recent slew of inactive years consistent with the AMO going negative again, so you never know. If any of this is true, I suspect actual activity will be at the lower end of La Nina extremes.
Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 2h2 hours ago
@TropicalTidbits not sure we could forecast another 2013 so soon! Don't even totally understand it now eh @philklotzbach

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 2h2 hours ago
@EricBlake12 @philklotzbach I would bet even an identical SSTA pattern to 2013 this year would yield a different kind of season.
Woo-hoo ...the little orange envelope indicating new mail is now working again!
Thanks WU developers for fixing that
  Let me be 2nd in line to thank the Developers for fixing the Email Notification Icon..... Thanks go to JMH for pointing that out...
Quoting 126. Gearsts:


Don't know what that means.
Quoting 93. Patrap:

#91

Well u can run wit dat all you want, as we in the Science community...


HAHAHAHAHA
Quoting 92. justmehouston:






Not necessarily so, just like we are developing alternative sources of energy I believe that we can also find new ways to create the other products that oil creates. One thing that I wish we could do is tap in to all the extra CO2 and form some of the above products with it.

I believe that we are headed in this direction, not going to happen over night though.
Progress will be made.

I do like your post though pointing out other products that we use daily that we dont connect oil with.
yeah, in looking around my house..if it isnt made entirely of wood...everything else has some kind of petro made product in it....i just dont know...if there WAS some other way to make the things we use and have..would'nt they have already done it?....a very different life style is coming to the future generations ahead..and there arent enough horses to even get us to the store..and that store will probably be empty anyway..im glad im old and wont see whats coming down the pike....i know..its so hard to believe its coming..but it is...the only question is...when
Quoting 129. washingtonian115:

Don't know what that means.

Weak trade winds, so warmer Atlantic, I don't know but the models are contradicting themselves.., I think La Nina got them crazy.
Quoting 133. stormchaser19:


Weak trade winds, so warmer Atlantic, I don't know but the models are contradicting themselves.., I think La Nina got them crazy.
Forecasters will love this season.
Quoting 129. washingtonian115:

Don't know what that means.

Does a negative zonal wind anomaly mean less wind shear than normal?
Quoting 105. PedleyCA:

This doesn't look very promising, well unless you live in Ventura Co.




Lucky me, I do. Water from the sky, almost up to what I'd call sprinkles. We were under a flood watch, now it's a flood advisory. The flowers like it, though.
Quoting 119. NativeSun:

Hi river, actually homo sapiens are pretty stupid, if we were as smart as some think, we wouldn't be having these discussions on climate change, like we do on this weather blog all the time. As of right now and far into the future, their is no know substitute for those 6000 products produced by petroleum.


More lack of imagination and a pessimistic viewpoint. You may think humans are stupid but we've come a long way by systematically applying science to the world. Rather than living in the past we need to look to the future. I'm sure nearly all of those 6000 products can be replaced by something that doesn't require petroleum.
Quoting 131. LargoFl:

yeah, in looking around my house..if it isnt made entirely of wood...everything else has some kind of petro made product in it....i just dont know...if there WAS some other way to make the things we use and have..would'nt they have already done it?....a very different life style is coming to the future generations ahead..and there arent enough horses to even get us to the store..and that store will probably be empty anyway..im glad im old and wont see whats coming down the pike....i know..its so hard to believe its coming..but it is...the only question is...when


Making money from CO2
Link

Recycling Carbon Dioxide to Make Plastics
Link

It's starting to happen already. I applaud these new ideas and technology
Quoting 136. chasSoCal:



Lucky me, I do. Water from the sky, almost up to what I'd call sprinkles. We were under a flood watch, now it's a flood advisory. The flowers like it, though.
be careful those floods of sprinkles are deceiving sometimes could even be some large wet spots too
Quoting 133. stormchaser19:


Weak trade winds, so warmer Atlantic, I don't know but the models are contradicting themselves.., I think La Nina got them crazy.
If that is true I just don't see how this could be like 2013 then.2013 had fast trades in the tropics which is why Chantal was moving at record speeds of 31mph.
Quoting 135. HurricaneFan:


Does a negative zonal wind anomaly mean less wind shear than normal?


Positive (Red-Orange) means westerly winds = Less trade winds warm the SST and it's good for the storm to develop.
Negative (purple) winds means easterly wind = Trade winds, cool the SST
Quoting 125. justmehouston:

Woo-hoo ...the little orange envelope indicating new mail is now working again!
Thanks WU developers for fixing that

I meant to tell everyone, mail your wunderfriends and watch the mail flags light up:)


Incredible video out now from Clem Schultz. He filmed this EF-4 tornado hit his house from upstairs. He thought it was going to stay north of him til too late. He rode the chimney down, got wrapped in a sheet and buried. Broke his back. His wife and neighbor were on the first floor and were both killed. Story is here. He's sharing it with researchers and it will be shown at the upcoming atmospheric science meeting in California.
~
146. JRRP7
Quoting 126. Gearsts:








Looks like a disturbed 2nd part of April. In fact the Gfs shows a wetter period starting early this upcoming week. :)
Quoting 141. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

be careful those floods of sprinkles are deceiving sometimes could even be some large wet spots too


Southern California's rain is like South Florida's cold weather.
Here, the NWS will issue wind chill advisories and the temperatures are in the 40s outside.

In Minnesota, people would be wearing shorts and playing at the park in those conditions.

Quoting 128. Gearsts:



Is that -NAO?
Briefly Sprinkled here,Take what ya can get. KRAL is reporting .02", there was a cell over that way....

Quoting 150. PedleyCA:

Briefly Sprinkled here,Take what ya can get. KRAL is reporting .02", there was a cell over that way....




Are you sure that wasn't a bird doing a fly over?
Quoting 131. LargoFl:

yeah, in looking around my house..if it isnt made entirely of wood...everything else has some kind of petro made product in it....i just dont know...if there WAS some other way to make the things we use and have..would'nt they have already done it?....a very different life style is coming to the future generations ahead..and there arent enough horses to even get us to the store..and that store will probably be empty anyway..im glad im old and wont see whats coming down the pike....i know..its so hard to believe its coming..but it is...the only question is...when
Actually there are already available fine substitutes for many of the products that petroleum gets used for -- like bicycles instead of horses OR cars for many trips. A problem with trying to recover the carbon from CO2 is that its binding energy is strong and dissociating it requires a lot of energy. We invented all the modern products in the last few years -- inventing replacements without using the same materials should not be hard.
This is interesting...
Quoting 134. Gearsts:

Forecasters will love this season.


The past couple seasons have proved that even the "experts" have a lot to learn about tropical cyclone forecasting. But the more important question is where will the storms form and where will they go?
I'm just afraid of what might happen when the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico return to their old ways.

we wouldn't be having these discussions on climate change, like we do on this weather blog all the time.
Native -
Masters and Henson write about climate change all the time, and how it is driving the long term, near term, and short term events we are seeing. To miss this simple fact, is well rather myopic.
ABC News led with "arctic blast" tonight in the Northeast. Certainly cold, and snowy in Ohio, but it's raining in Nuuk, Greenland, and 35F degrees. And it'll stay that way for the next 5 days.

And it's 54F degrees in Fairbanks, and cloudy. Which means the permafrost near Palin's house has begun to thaw.



Quoting 91. hotroddan:

Considering Humans did not have accurate ways of measuring C02 levels hundreds of thousands of years ago I think it is safe to say that the data on the chart is inaccurate.


I guess science wasn't your favorite class?

Surface geology is exposed to the atmosphere. The atmosphere contains various gases. Over time, these gases interact with the surface geology. This creates various chemical/mineral compound deposits; a "signature" if you will. Eventually the surface layers get buried under new layers of materials. Over time, these deposits form various geological strata delineated by events that caused changes in the rates, locations, and composition of deposits.

Using physics, chemistry, and math, one can work backwards from the geological deposits and determine what the general prevailing conditions were during different time periods. This includes things like volcanic eruptions, meteorite impacts, floods, large scale extinctions, and yes, even widespread changes in atmospheric chemistry.

Ice cores are even easier and have a much higher time resolution. The ice sheets form strata much in the same way sediments do, only on a yearly basis as a result of melting-refreezing-accumulating snow/ice. Air gets trapped and sealed off in the ice as it forms. The age of an ice layer can be determined by looking at the strata. The trapped air is extracted from the ice strata, then analyzed to determine the atmospheric composition.

Chemical analysis methods have been around since the 19th century, as demonstrated in Svante Arrhenius's original work on CO2, climate modeling, and global warming (published in the 1890's). This isn't what you'd call "new" or "untested" science.

There are numerous resources available on this subject. Google is your friend.
158. bwi
Spot the anomaly!
Quoting 156. RobertWC:

ABC News led with "arctic blast" tonight in the Northeast. Certainly cold, and snowy in Ohio, but it's raining in Nuuk, Greenland, and 35F degrees. And it'll stay that way for the next 5 days.

And it's 54F degrees in Fairbanks, and cloudy. Which means the permafrost near Palin's house has begun to thaw.




As her house sinks into the muck, there goes her view of Russia! :-)
Still under that moisture band and still getting a light rain with occasional moderate here in the SF Bay Area.
Quoting 67. Gearsts:

Warming mdr.
Quoting 69. stormchaser19:



Exactly, and quite a nice pattern. Although is mid may, you would like that to be there through August.


Yep and I like it

Quoting 73. washingtonian115:

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 4h4 hours ago
Significant trend in the NMME for a faster transition into La Nina.


Yep and I totally agree
I've been saying it for a good while now transition Ro happen soon and stronger La Niña to come

The latest CFS latest, earliest, and others members all now show La Niña now


Quoting 133. stormchaser19:


Weak trade winds, so warmer Atlantic, I don't know but the models are contradicting themselves.., I think La Nina got them crazy.


I'm gonna really enjoy this season
Where is scott? XD.
Quoting 144. Skyepony:


I meant to tell everyone, mail your wunderfriends and watch the mail flags light up:)


Incredible video out now from Clem Schultz. He filmed this EF-4 tornado hit his house from upstairs. He thought it was going to stay north of him til too late. He rode the chimney down, got wrapped in a sheet and buried. Broke his back. His wife and neighbor were on the first floor and were both killed. Story is here. He's sharing it with researchers and it will be shown at the upcoming atmospheric science meeting in California.

Amazing video. Everyone should see this to nudge them into watching for ominous weather in tornado prone areas especially.
Chemical analysis methods have been around since the 19th century, as demonstrated in Svante Arrhenius's original work on CO2, climate modeling, and global warming (published in the 1890's). This isn't what you'd call "new" or "untested" science.

There are numerous resources available on this subject. Google is your friend.


In the 1950's the USAF was working on heat seeking missiles. Their first efforts failed. Their first sensors were blinded by the same effect that John Tyndall had discovered in 1860. That greenhouse gases bounce the infrared back . They couldn't see the hot flame of a jet, because the greenhouse gases were blinding their sensors.

This is the greatest proof that John Tyndall was right. And the USAF only solved the problem by developing sensors in other bands of the infrared.

By the way , everything you can see is like foot on this scale, everything you can't see goes out to Pluto.
Our "lil fren" Storm #2 getting closer to Soo Cal

Quoting 119. NativeSun:

Hi river, actually homo sapiens are pretty stupid, if we were as smart as some think, we wouldn't be having these discussions on climate change, like we do on this weather blog all the time. As of right now and far into the future, their is no know substitute for those 6000 products produced by petroleum.


I guess you missed that link about what is actually made from petroleum and the percentage it makes up...
One more thing, ........... pure research , the wingnuts want to kill it.

Research late 1890's into electromagnetic fields , gave us the first news that the Titanic had gone down. It was a complete waste of time when they started.

One never knows where science will take us.
So is this hurricane season going to be active or not. I felt like my forecast maybe too much. Here's my forecast:17 named storms 9 hurricanes 6 major hurricanes 
There is this world, where one man's poor education , has the same weight as a PHD.
This is the last 6 hours only.

My ignorance and lazy world , has the same value of your 10 years of work.
Quoting 162. washingtonian115:

Where is scott? XD.


he went down with the sinking ship like a good captain would do
CAHP = Condescending something something Poseur
A few light showers in the mountains of San Diego County and looks like more are inbound from looking at the radar.




You guys are too harsh on Scott.

Quoting 176. HurricaneHunterJoe:

A few light showers in the mountains of San Diego County and looks like more are inbound from looking at the radar.





Just have to have patience.
Quoting 178. PedleyCA:


Just have to have patience.



My finger nails have been gnawn off this winter!'...............j/k.........LOL
Good evening, all!

It's a beautiful 80 degrees with a clear sky in downtown St. Thomas tonight.

Been a hell of week over here on my side of life with my other half having a heart attack and dealing with all that had to be dealt with. All is well and I have him home, safe and sound, with no signs that it ever happened. Absolutely incredible what these doctors were able to do. Two stents in two days, plus recovery time, and he's telling everyone he's been overhauled and ready for the next 60 years....*rolling eyes* Now the only problem is keeping him down to a dull roar for a few weeks!

Hoping all is well with the rest of you!

Lindy
Quoting 156. RobertWC:

ABC News led with "arctic blast" tonight in the Northeast. Certainly cold, and snowy in Ohio, but it's raining in Nuuk, Greenland, and 35F degrees. And it'll stay that way for the next 5 days.

And it's 54F degrees in Fairbanks, and cloudy. Which means the permafrost near Palin's house has begun to thaw.





Wasilla is close to Anchorage and far from Fairbanks.
Thanks CaneNothing like a bit of math to put things in perspective
Quoting 63. CaneFreeCR:
Note that the x and y scales are in arc seconds -- 60 to the minute, 60 minutes to the degree, and the greatest excursion is a bit over 0.500. There are approximately 70 miles on the Earth's surface for each degree. It's not clear whether the excursion equals a bit over 1/2 an arc-second or 1/2 a minute, but in the latter case the amount is about half a mile -- not a really significant shift out of 25000 

Quoting 131. LargoFl:

yeah, in looking around my house..if it isnt made entirely of wood...everything else has some kind of petro made product in it....i just dont know...if there WAS some other way to make the things we use and have..would'nt they have already done it?...
A quick search on the internet turned up this;
"Hemp plastic is a bioplastic that is made using industrial hemp.
There are different grades of the material which differ by the ratio of
hemp fiber to polymer base. They can vary from standard plastics
reinforced with fibers to a 100% hemp cellulose structure. This allows
for a wide range of mechanical properties which are tailored to the
desired application."
"There are many benefits that hemp plastic has compared standard oil based polymers. Listed below are just a few in detail:" lotusboards.com/hemp-plastic-can-change-wor ld/
Quoting 179. wunderkidcayman:



You do realise that Scott was going on about Armageddon apocalyptic El Niño then when it starts to weaken he goes on about that the El Niño will return this year with it possibly being stronger than the one we are coming out of now

Yeah the CFS was indicating similar but it was an initialisation and glitch in the model are you saying the same is going on in Scott

Anyway I'm gonna leave this here and I'll have no more about Scott you are right it's about time we do put this to bed
Good.
Started raining about 6:30 PDT. Currently 0.39 inches in my PWS.
Truckee, CA weather
Edit: I understand it is snowing in some of the high mtns.
Quoting 186. LiveToFish0430:


I have a problem with posts like this. Don't get me wrong wunderkidcayman, I think you are a great blogger who brings a lot to this community. But the Scott bashing has been unreal lately. Again, I get it. Scott loved El Nino more than anyone ive ever seen before and he wouldn't let it go. It did get old after a while. I like Scott, I really do. As a fellow Floridian, I love seeing all the Florida weather hype. Hes one of my favorites. But the El Nino stuff did get old to all of us. But how is this any different? Several times a day you are on here stating how La Nina is going to strengthen faster than forecast, is going to be stronger than forecast and is going to bring several tropical systems through the Caribbean towards you. It just seems like the pot calling the kettle black. Again, no disrespect wunderkidcayman, honestly, but don't get on Scott for doing the same exact thing you are


First off refer to post #179
Secondly I didn't say that the storms will be heading towards me I said toward the Caribbean
Thirdly I'm in the middle of moving back to UK this year so if we do get a hurricane to hit the UK then by god this season has gone crazy
(Despite for most of the season I will be in Cayman I think Cayman as part of the Caribbean will get its fair share of storms this year)
Quoting 177. Gearsts:

You guys are too harsh on Scott.


No we're not. What makes you think that?


As the large upper-level trough (look at that big swirl offshore New England) and its associated cold airmass weaken and move northeastward across the Atlantic over the next few days, a much more springlike pattern should set up over the eastern half of the United States, as a large area of high pressure forms in the wake of the unseasonable cold air. In fact, most of the models show this pattern continuing for at least the next 10 days, with no significant intrusions of cold air that I can see.
Plenty of people here aren't what they suggest; I can count on like two hands the amount of people that I think are decent to above-average forecasters.

Not being mean, just stating facts.
Having some doubts about Storm #2 for Soo Cal..........Im trying to have patience Ped but something is wrroooooooonnnnnnngggggggggggggggggggg!
Quoting 194. KoritheMan:

Plenty of people here aren't what they suggest; I can count on like two hands the amount of people here that I think are decent to above-average forecasters.

Not being mean, just stating facts.
That ain't me lol. I'm glad to contribute where I can but its not really going to be about dangerous weather where I live. Sacramento isn't really known for that. However I'll pipe up when things do have an impact. Yes, Scott went a little overboard, but let him be. El Niño did have an impact and I'm sure someone somewhere appreciates the heads up. Ease up and have fun with this format of conversation.
Quoting 195. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Having some doubts about Storm #2 for Soo Cal..........Im trying to have patience Ped but something is wrroooooooonnnnnnngggggggggggggggggggg!
Looks better down where you are, but it seems to want to be offshore, bummer....
Ice age cometh.
  Looks like it is just sitting there offshore taunting Us....
My 2 cents worth on MIA bloggers.
Hopefully they are OK and are doing fine but they decided to take a WU diet and are chilling out on the back/front porch. Many that come here take a break once and awhile, some return, some don't. But it would be nice not to talk about them (behind there back), unless they are here to respond!
Quoting 201. swflurker:

My 2 cents worth on MIA bloggers.
Hopefully they are OK and are doing fine but they decided to take a WU diet and are chilling out on the back/front porch. Many that come here take a break once and awhile, some return, some don't. But it would be nice not to talk about them (behind there back), unless they are here to respond!



Talking behind someone's back is typically used in a more derogatory context. What you're suggesting is concern. :P
Quoting 200. PedleyCA:

  Looks like it is just sitting there offshore taunting Us....



Pretty much the same story all winter.......really pizzing me off!


One 5 minute shower the last 2 hours...................................SAD!
206. vis0

Quoting 77. LargoFl:

You probably already know that oil and gas products fuel cars and heat homes – 94 per cent of transportation demand in Canada is supplied by refined petroleum products and more than half of Canadian homes are heated by natural gas.

But in what other ways are crude oil and natural gas products part of your everyday life?

Canadians are answering this question through a new website, letskeepcanadamoving.ca. We’ve combined some of their ideas with some other examples to create this list of six ways your life could be different without the energy moved by pipelines.


Energy fact: 97 per cent of Canada’s natural gas and crude oil production is moved by transmission pipelines.

1. Your morning routine would change

What do you do first in the morning? Brush your teeth? Go for a run? The materials in toothbrushes and running shoes are made from petrochemicals produced when petroleum is refined.

What about your mid-morning snack? You might not be able to eat your favourite B.C. gala apples because the agricultural industry relies on trains and trucks to get “our fruits and vegetables from the farmers’ fields to our kitchen tables,” said Albertan Michael Ervin. (Get more of Michael’s story)

2. You would have to rethink your wardrobe

If you love your wrinkle-free shirt, you can probably thank oil delivered by pipelines. Materials used to make nylon, elastic, rayon, polyester and even “permanent press” items come from petroleum. If you wear glasses, the lenses and frames were probably made using a derivative of crude oil.


Did you know? There are over 6,000 products that are made from petroleum.

3. Your health may be affected

Think of your last trip to the doctor’s office or hospital. Did your doctor or nurse use latex gloves or disposable syringes? These are petroleum products. Even heart valves and artificial limbs couldn’t be produced without oil and gas.

How would it affect our health if we didn’t have these life saving health products?

4. You would have to cancel your trip to Paris

About 10 per cent of every barrel of oil is used for jet fuel to power airplanes and helicopters.

Petroleum is needed to power airplanes, but it is also helping to make air travel more efficient.

“Airplanes use less fuel today because they are lighter, and they’re lighter because they use polymers made from hydrocarbons,” said Andre Brunell from Montreal. (Read Andre’s story)

How would your life be different if you couldn’t travel by plane?

5. You wouldn’t be reading this blog post

That’s right – the plastics used to make electronics such as computers and phones are made with petrochemicals. Without oil and gas, you may have to resort to using a carrier pigeon.

6. You would have a different understanding of the universe

According to NASA, “a space shuttle’s large external tank is loaded with more than 500,000 gallons of super-cold liquid oxygen and liquid hydrogen, which are mixed and burned together to form the fuel for the orbiter’s three main rocket engines.”

This hydrogen is derived from petroleum. How would your idea of the solar system be different without knowledge discovered thanks to space exploration?

So by the looks of comment #77 humanity is DOOMED as once petrol is used up its jump off the highest mountain time?...or is it that humanity became brain lazy in not using the same imagination that led to oil usage to find out a cleaner source that could also be profitable.

reply is on my zilly blog here the link to comment#273 there. If one allows that page to load it'll scroll to that comment thus avoiding my other crap  and saving ones energy as in having to scroll :-P.
Let's see if the band of rain coming up from the SouthWest can hold together thru it's time in San Diego County. Have had one 5 minute shower in the last 4 hours.

208. vis0

Quoting 131. LargoFl:

yeah, in looking around my house..if it isnt made entirely of wood...everything else has some kind of petro made product in it....i just dont know...if there WAS some other way to make the things we use and have..would'nt they have already done it?....a very different life style is coming to the future generations ahead..and there arent enough horses to even get us to the store..and that store will probably be empty anyway..im glad im old and wont see whats coming down the pike....i know..its so hard to believe its coming..but it is...the only question is...when
i guess you have not heard nano technology and the building blocks of certain fibers and proteins and one more to be unveiled in ~2017 are going to create plastics without oils.
Price is with the problem now but i figure after 10 years of  useable nano techs. as to the main stream public/consumers/prosumers,  it'll compete with oil based plastic (OBP) then pass OBP since its safer to make, stronger and more flexible and certain types when they burn don't create the more dangerous level toxic gases.

Similarly that technology will be used for certain footwear. 
The sad part is if those that support oil join in creating somehing safer yet just as useful, those oil supporters could gain from those profits but in staying away when those new discoveries are made those in oil will lose as oil companies did in not refit their factories to stay ahead of the curve and jobs will be lost and stocks for companies that profit from oil will lose lots of value but then i think you know that and those in the oil business that began gambling with the health of many including their hard workers, in the end made the losing bet.

i'll save the horses for the Budweiser wagons in the future i prefer being beamed to another area of the world and BONUS my luggage comes with me which cuts back on losing luggage PLUS  those oil derived explosives used by terrorist?... since that technology has each person passing through quantum light organic detectors to recreate each person back as they were if your luggage has a bomb only the person carrying it goes boom being anything volatile becomes mixed thus active i going from deconstruction to reconstruction . bon v o  y     a        g            e
209. vis0

Quoting 173. Tazmanian:



he went down with the sinking ship like a good captain would do
STS if you look back stated that el Nino will exist till summer then STS expected neutral till the last month when STs thought Nina could appear though STS has stated a VERY slight chance some form of Nino could reappear instead of La Nina..
That was during Jan/Feb. 2016

A few that for whatever like challenging STS and most of those members in late January 2016 stated Nino gone by springs start and they expect a La Nina by June/July.

i didn't want to spoil the latter folks as it takes 3 months of either Nino or Nina anomalies for officials to start leaning OFFICIALLY to one side or the other.

In using that 3 months string, at the earliest La Nina appears in August 2016

So far STS statements are on track Nino is going away by the start of summer (experts say Nino ends by start of summer) ,
then neutral till the end of fall (experts say neutral but some think Nina by summers end or Falls start), 
then Nina with a slight chance of some modoki* (experts don't think nino just neutral or nina by winter?

*Nino modoki is interpretation of STS words,  call STS just stated some form of Nino)

Taz there is a planet to destroy earth by late April 2016, what would your priorities be [|humour or is it...](after buying the latest iPod of course}[|humour or is it...]

"How much oil is used to make plastic?

In the United States, plastics are not made from crude oil. They are manufactured from hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGL) and natural gas. HGL are byproducts of petroleum refining and natural gas processing. These liquids are used as feedstocks by petrochemical manufacturers to make plastic and are used as fuels in the manufacturing process.

In 20101, about 191 million barrels of HGL were used in the United States to make plastic products in the plastic materials and resins industry, which was equal to about 2.7% of total U.S. petroleum consumption. Of those 191 million barrels, 190 million barrels were used as feedstock and 1 million barrels were consumed as fuel to manufacture these products.

In addition to HGL, about 412 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of natural gas were used to make plastic materials and resins in 2010. This was equal to about 1.7% of total U.S. natural gas consumption. Of the 412 Bcf of natural gas, 13 Bcf were used as feedstock, and 399 Bcf were consumed as fuel to manufacture these products.

In addition to HGL and natural gas, about 65 billion kilowatthours of electricity were used to manufacture plastics in 2010, equal to about 1.7% of total U.S. electricity consumption.

EIA does not have data on the quantity of plastic materials and resins produced in the United States, and it does not have data on the origin of all the plastic products used in the United States. EIA does not have similar data for other countries."
Link

So I'll make you guys a deal. You can keep using all the petroleum products you want forever as long as we stop using the other 97% of fossil fuels. I won't even bring up how howling "but all the products" seems really silly in light of the impacts on humans and society that a warming world bring. No worries, keep the products and advocate for that 97% decrease in fossil fuel use.
Quoting 137. riverat544:



More lack of imagination and a pessimistic viewpoint. You may think humans are stupid but we've come a long way by systematically applying science to the world. Rather than living in the past we need to look to the future. I'm sure nearly all of those 6000 products can be replaced by something that doesn't require petroleum.
I hope we do find and alternate to oil one day, that will produce a material that we can substitute for plastics, and all the other products that are currently made from oil. Right now there is nothing out there that we can use, and I don't see it happening for a long time, besides we need to start acting on things we really can control, like air and water pollution, then hopefully we can find, or design a product that will replace oil in the manufacturing of those 6000 or so products. Back to Homo Sapiens being stupid, what other species on this planet, destroys their environment for profit, or power where it is no longer habitual, or kills over money, religion, color of skin, or power. Lets not get started on overpopulation, do you know what happens when a species over populates their environment in nature, the same thing will probably happen to Homo Sapiens. Back to weather, we are having a beautiful day down here in South Florida this morning, won't last long, the heat will return and I sure hope the rain starts soon.
Good morning everyone, I bottomed out at 20F last night, some damage is already evident on the lilacs and on my peach and plum trees. The rest of the fruit trees are still in the initial bud swell stage so they should be fine. I hope all the gardeners and growers to the South of me faired better as they're much farther along in the season, so much more fresh spring growth to get zapped by the cold.

On the bright side the last cold morning of the season looks to be Wednesday,  after that it's game on. Check out these highs at the end of the most recent GFS run.

Oh and happy Master's Sunday, go Jordan. 
Good morning, going back and reading some of these post here this morning and thinking, you know what. We all have the right to express what we like to say here weather if we are right or wrong, weather if we know what we are talking about or just learning. If we are wrong in stating something, let it be a learning experience not one to pick on or bash. I to like STS info, but I to like everyone else's as well. Have a nice day everyone!
Quoting 177. Gearsts:

You guys are too harsh on Scott.
Quoting 214. NativeSun:

So now people will start smoking or burning the hemp plastic products.


Please tell me you aren't being serious....
Something to keep an eye on if, like me, you're getting itchy for some tropical action to watch. It's not the Atlantic, but it looks like the Indian Ocean could be about to spawn a significant cyclone. The incipient disturbance, 99S, has already formed and is organizing, with a ULAC overhead of it, around 15S/75E.



The latest GFS and ECMWF runs are in remarkable agreement about the storm's position and intensity all the way out at day 10. Here's the ECMWF-

217. JRRP7
Quoting 163. unknowncomic:

Amazing video. Everyone should see this to nudge them into watching for ominous weather in tornado prone areas especially.


Or at least get them to not be stupid and actually take cover.

Honestly, when severe weather comes to my area I'm usually outside with a camera to watch it roll in. But if I look out my window and see THAT coming, the last thing I'm going to do is run upstairs and hang around to record it. I'm getting my family to shelter, ASAP.

It's sad that there was injury and loss of life, but it's worse that it could have likely been prevented by taking appropriate action. It would not surprise me in the least if one or more criminal lawsuits are filed against him as a result.
Quoting 215. Naga5000:



Please tell me you aren't being serious....


Giving his posting history, odds are he is being serious. :P

The cannabis sativa plant typically cultivated for industrial use has a THC content of between 0 and .5%. You'd have better luck getting high by eating dirt.
220. elioe
I think it's a bit misnomer to connect "slowdown of AMOC" with the cold anomaly. AMOC has also a branch in the Norwegian Sea, and the cold blob does not extend to the European coast. Given that the greatest positive temperature anomalies of the Arctic are approximately at the sinking end of the Norwegian Sea branch, it would seem at least intuitive to assume that the branch is actually getting stronger.

I see the phenomenon as follows: Greenlandic meltwaters reduce salinity east of Newfoundland, raising the local sea level. The wind-driven Gulf Stream pushes water to that direction. The flow of waters brought by Gulf Stream is reduced by the smaller horizontal pressure gradient, so water piles up near the North American east coast. This piling creates a new pressure gradient force towards northeast, which accelerates the geostrophic flow towards the southeast.

So I see the cold anomaly to be a sign of the streamlines of North Atlantic Drift shifting to a more southern course. The Labrador Sea branch of AMOC may be deteriorating pretty rapidly, but I'd expect the Norwegian Sea branch to get stronger by the same rate. That's because I don't see how 10000 m³/s of Greenlandic meltwaters could affect any circulation, when they are getting diluted with 100000000 m³/s of Gulf Stream waters during a journey of thousands of kilometers from Newfoundland to Europe.
221. SuzK
Quoting 210. Naga5000:

"How much oil is used to make plastic?

In the United States, plastics are not made from crude oil. They are manufactured from hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGL) and natural gas. HGL are byproducts of petroleum refining and natural gas processing. These liquids are used as feedstocks by petrochemical manufacturers to make plastic and are used as fuels in the manufacturing process.

In 20101, about 191 million barrels of HGL were used in the United States to make plastic products in the plastic materials and resins industry, which was equal to about 2.7% of total U.S. petroleum consumption. Of those 191 million barrels, 190 million barrels were used as feedstock and 1 million barrels were consumed as fuel to manufacture these products.

In addition to HGL, about 412 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of natural gas were used to make plastic materials and resins in 2010. This was equal to about 1.7% of total U.S. natural gas consumption. Of the 412 Bcf of natural gas, 13 Bcf were used as feedstock, and 399 Bcf were consumed as fuel to manufacture these products.

In addition to HGL and natural gas, about 65 billion kilowatthours of electricity were used to manufacture plastics in 2010, equal to about 1.7% of total U.S. electricity consumption.

EIA does not have data on the quantity of plastic materials and resins produced in the United States, and it does not have data on the origin of all the plastic products used in the United States. EIA does not have similar data for other countries."
Link

So I'll make you guys a deal. You can keep using all the petroleum products you want forever as long as we stop using the other 97% of fossil fuels. I won't even bring up how howling "but all the products" seems really silly in light of the impacts on humans and society that a warming world bring. No worries, keep the products and advocate for that 97% decrease in fossil fuel use.


Sorry NAGA but that was a lot of dancing around just to say that plastic is essentially made from crude oil.

"HGL are byproducts of petroleum refining and natural gas processing. These liquids are used as feedstocks by petrochemical manufacturers to make plastic and are used as fuels in the manufacturing process."

"
Quoting 221. SuzK:



Sorry NAGA but that was a lot of dancing around just to say that plastic is essentially made from crude oil.

"HGL are byproducts of petroleum refining and natural gas processing. These liquids are used as feedstocks by petrochemical manufacturers to make plastic and are used as fuels in the manufacturing process."

"


Missed the point entirely. Production of goods from fossil fuels is a miniscule percentage and any blathering about it is disingenuous at best. The grand majority of crude goes to making gasoline and jet fuel.
Have your Nado plan at the ready and NOAA Alert Weather Radios battery backed upped too.


Quoting 222. Naga5000:



Missed the point entirely. Production of goods from fossil fuels is a miniscule percentage and any blathering about it is disingenuous at best. The grand majority of crude goes to making gasoline and jet fuel.


But that % has choked the shipping lanes and beaches of the Globe et al.





Larger Gyre Poster image
Quoting 218. Xyrus2000:



Or at least get them to not be stupid and actually take cover.

Honestly, when severe weather comes to my area I'm usually outside with a camera to watch it roll in. But if I look out my window and see THAT coming, the last thing I'm going to do is run upstairs and hang around to record it. I'm getting my family to shelter, ASAP.

It's sad that there was injury and loss of life, but it's worse that it could have likely been prevented by taking appropriate action. It would not surprise me in the least if one or more criminal lawsuits are filed against him as a result.


Criminal lawsuit for what: filming a tornado, is that a new law.

Well since he is 85 years old and this happened a year ago, I guess no lawsuits were filed. He has also said he is proud of the video since it is helping researchers

Well back to boiling down maple sap for syrup and smoking a pork shoulder. Current temp 34 cloudy and wind at about 20 from the west. A little chilling but have a good hot fire to stand by. Also the Bald Eagles are rather active today and I see a new pair has moved in so now have two nesting pairs out the back window.

Have a good day all
I see the SPC has decided to increase the severe threat to enhanced for today.

Here's my comment from Tuesday, April 5
154. Sfloridacat5
7:11 PM GMT on April 05, 2016
This is looking like a pretty interesting setup developing for next week. It will all depend on how much Gulf moisture can get pulled into the setup.
Definitely a severe weather setup if the models continue to go with this into next week.

I thought we'd see the best chance on Monday, but everything setup a little faster than the models were showing 6 days ago.


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016

VALID 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF OK AND NW TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH AREA...FROM
W CNTRL TX ENE INTO SW MO...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ABOVE AREAS
FROM S CNTRL AND W TX NEWD INTO MO...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
FROM PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...AND MISSOURI. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...BUT
DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE TORNADOES ALSO COULD OCCUR.

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
SPLIT FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LWR 48 THROUGH MON AS DEEP NRN
STREAM TROUGH EXITS NEW ENGLAND...AND SRN STREAM LOW NOW ENTERING
NRN BAJA CA WEAKENS UPON CONTINUING E INTO NM. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH NRN STREAM TROUGH OVER MB/MN WILL ADVANCE E AND S ACROSS THE
UPR MS VLY AND CNTRL PLNS THROUGH TNGT...WHILE PRESSURES FALL OVER
THE SRN HIGH PLNS AHEAD OF BAJA SYSTEM. DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH MAY
DIURNALLY MIX EWD ACROSS NW TX LATE TODAY...BUT THE FEATURE LIKELY
WILL RETREAT W/NW THIS EVE...BEFORE ACCELERATING E ACROSS W TX AND
SW OK BY DAWN MON.

...NW TX/OK ENE INTO THE OZARKS LATE TODAY THROUGH TNGT...
SFC OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE-DERIVED DATA SHOW MOISTURE CONTINUING
TO STREAM NWD ACROSS TX AND OK IN STRONG SWLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
UPR TROUGH NOW ENTERING MN. THIS FLOW SHOULD RELAX SOMEWHAT BACK
LATER TODAY AND THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVE AS A NEW LOW-LVL
JET STREAM DEVELOPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING BAJA SYSTEM.
BY EARLY EVE...EXPECT 1.25 INCH PW TO HAVE SPREAD NWD INTO SE KS AND
CNTRL MO...ALONG/AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S / LOW 60S.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF MAIN BAJA TROUGH...BOUNDARY LAYER
CLOUDS...AND EML CAP MAY SOMEWHAT DELAY DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF HEATING ON W EDGE OF MOIST
AXIS...CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE...AND PERHAPS ASCENT
RELATED TO WEAK DISTURBANCES EJECTING ENEWD AHEAD OF BAJA SYSTEM
SHOULD PROMOTE OVER W CNTRL/NW TX AND WRN OK UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTN.

ONCE STORMS FORM...ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR
TWO GIVEN 40+ KT WSWLY DEEP SHEAR AND MUCAPE AOA 1500 J/KG. WITH
WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AFTER DARK /WITH
700 MB FLOW AOA 50 KTS/...THE STORMS LIKELY WILL STRENGTHEN AND GROW
UPSCALE AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP GENERALLY ENE ACROSS OK. OTHER
STORMS...INCLUDING POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS...LIKELY WILL FORM AROUND
THIS TIME IN CORRIDOR OF SOMEWHAT WEAKER BUOYANCY ALONG FRONT IN KS
AND MO.

POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...A SWATH OR TWO OF DMGG
WIND...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO OVER PARTS OF OK INTO LATE
EVE...WITH SIMILAR BUT SOMEWHAT REDUCED THREATS IN SE KS AND SW MO.
A MORE LIMITED SVR THREAT MAY PERSIST THROUGH 12Z MON ACROSS SRN/ERN
OK AND SW MO.

...SW INTO CNTRL AND S CNTRL TX LATE TODAY THROUGH TNGT...
A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SVR STORMS...MAINLY WITH LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY
DMGG WIND...WILL EXIST LATE TODAY AND TNGT ALONG DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH
SEGMENTS OVER PARTS OF SW AND S CNTRL TX...WHERE SFC
HEATING/CONVERGENCE COULD BREACH EML CAP DESPITE WEAK LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT. A CONDITIONAL RISK ALSO WILL EXIST FOR STORMS
FORMING OVER THE NRN MEXICO MOUNTAINS S OF THE BIG BEND TO SPREAD E
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE. WHILE PROBABILISTIC RISK APPEARS LOW
ATTM...GIVEN STRENGTH OF BUOYANCY AND 40-50 KT WLY DEEP SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM JET...SUSTAINED SVR STORMS COULD FORM.

..CORFIDI/PICCA.. 04/10/2016
Double Post
test
On the weather front it is 33F cloudy with a west wind of around 20mph. A little chilling while standing outside boiling down the maple sap for syrup and since that takes hours, we put on a full pork shoulder in the smoker.

The Bald Eagles are active today and I see a new nesting pair has moved in so now have 2 nesting pairs out the back window.

Time to go stoke the fire, try and keep it as hot as possible for boiling, have a good day all
Having posting issues.
I am not sure if my posts went through, so if I have a double post sorry. A ghost in the machine I guess
.
Quoting 225. nymore:



Criminal lawsuit for what: filming a tornado, is that a new law.

Well since he is 85 years old and this happened a year ago, I guess no lawsuits were filed. He has also said he is proud of the video since it is helping researchers

Helping researchers how? Realize just how stupid some members of the public are?
Quoting 232. nymore:

I am not sure if my posts went through, so if I have a double post sorry. A ghost in the machine I guess


I thought it was just me. I'm glad to see it's a Wunderground issue and not my computer.
I find it quite funny that the same people talking about Scott's El Nino busted forecast for this season have no room to talk..

Those same people either talk incessantly about getting snow, or this year will be when I get a gulf hurricane, and GOD forbid a hurricane hitting the caymans..

Shouldn't throw stones when your own house is made of glass..Just know everyone here has had a busted forecast..Just be sure to include yours when you call out someone else..

If we stop acting like this weather blog is a one up on another then more of us old timers would return here to post..

See you all during hurricane season..

Quoting 230. Sfloridacat5:

Having posting issues.


lol ...not anymore as they are coming through just fine
Plenty of moisture for the Eastern Caribbean and north of the Greater Antilles if the CFSv2 August forecast is right.

Quoting 224. Patrap:



But that % has choked the shipping lanes and beaches of the Globe et al.





Larger Gyre Poster image


And that other 97% ain't no joke either.
Quoting 237. justmehouston:



lol ...not anymore as they are coming through just fine
Some are and some aren't -- mine went into the aether forever, seems like.

Quoting 234. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Helping researchers how? Realize just how stupid some members of the public are?
You don't think it's useful to see tornadic effects that close? Researchers can go frame by frame to work out the dynamics of the path and internal structure.
243. vis0

Quoting 215. Naga5000:



Please tell me you aren't being serious....
Nah, nativesun most smokers prefer smoking oil based ingredients as  in "regular" cigs or  Nitrosamines in the eCigs. Remember school Lab101, anything that burns creates other chemicals (chemical reactions) and those are not considered INgredients.  One more thing is some of the natural "stuff" can also do harm, but at least it has some medicinal properties. By nativesun's (incorect ) statement maybe if people rub the hemp products against anything that is ailing it'll cure it.

Nativesun my apology in disturbing your political readings/spin notes of the early 1900s.  When you get to whether women have rights or not let me know i want to read what you post.

Oh1MT,  don't try to eat the down pillow, it don't taste like chicken (goose)
Interesting about that tornado vid...
The two people (wife and a friend) who were downstairs presumably finding the best shelter available were the two that died. The man who filmed the tornado survived.

And...
Be careful of calling others stupid. For one thing, many people have nowhere to go.

If a tornado's gonna get you, it will, unless you have an underground shelter or approved above ground safe room to dive into. Even then... Weather can get you when you do all the right things. Vans full of people who pay big bucks to go stormchasing... Only a matter of time before one of those vans gets caught and fatalies or injuries occur. As we all know, experienced and science-based storm chasers get caught - and die.

Mostly it's a matter of what the tornado does more than what a human does. Humans in a tornado's way sometimes die. They do.
245. vis0
Quoting 236. ncstorm:




stay close, the flows (~sheer) off NE Africa are beginning to shift and remember even if Nino is around a tiny teenee bit its not just Nina or neutral that helps build symmetrical TS (the following is my opinion not known science) but the drop from whence Nino fell, one just has to wait for the sheer to lower too (the ~90 delay) and at times during what i call "2wkAnom" periods as with TS "A" that developed in Jan 2016.
Surface Cape
Special weather statement in effect for:
•City of Toronto

Yet another April snowfall on tap.

The latest battle between spring and a very stubborn winter is setting up for today and tonight across Southern Ontario. A large Alberta Clipper approaching the Great Lakes from the northwest will spread a large area of snow into the region, with the snow expected to arrive in Southwestern Ontario by early afternoon. Snow will reach the Muskoka to Golden Horseshoe areas later this afternoon then spread into remaining regions this evening.

Snowfall amounts will range from near 2 cm over areas near Lakes Erie and Ontario, to 4 to 8 centimetres further north. Up to 10 centimetres of snow is possible in a few locales tonight especially in areas around Georgian Bay and the Dundalk Highlands to the Haliburton Highlands.

As a warm front associated with the clipper moves in, the snow will change over to rain by late afternoon in the Windsor area. The changeover to rain will then work its way northeastward with the warm front tonight across remaining regions of Southern Ontario. There may be a brief period of ice pellets or freezing rain during the transition from snow to rain.

Most areas should receive a total of 5 to 15 mm of rain before the rain ends on Monday.

Driving conditions are expected to deteriorate after the snow arrives. Untreated roads may become snow covered and slippery. Motorists should be prepared for winter driving conditions and adjust travel plans accordingly.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.
after a brief cool down from passage of clipper a warm surge shall begin with temps reaching or surpassing 60 degrees by the start of next weekend beyond that a more warmer spring/summer like pattern sould take hold but we have to see as things move along


Supercell, Tornado Potential to Increase After Sunset in Southwest OK/Northwest TX
Dr. Reed Timmer, Lead Meteorologist April 10, 2016

Latest high-resolution forecast models have been trending toward an enhanced tornado threat near and especially just after sunset across extreme southwest Oklahoma. Storms will develop initially by late afternoon along the dry line in the eastern Texas Panhandle with large hail the main threat. Low-level wind shear should be initially weak throughout the warm sector before sunset, but decent upper-level winds will support high-based supercell potential early on. The tornado threat will develop with any dominant supercell storms that approach the OK/TX Panhandle border after sunset once the low-level jet begins to re-intensify. 0-1 km storm relative helicities will skyrocket above 200 m2/s2 by 9-10 pm over southwest OK into extreme northwest TX, even supported an isolated strong tornado potential for a short time-window through about 11 pm. The supercells will likely congeal into a weakening complex of strong-severe storms as they approach the OKC Metro around midnight.


VALID 101630Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN KS/SWRN MO SWWD INTO
THE TX PANHANDLE/WRN N TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF S TX/THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
AREAS...FROM MO SWWD ACROSS OK...AND SWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN AND
CENTRAL TX...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF TEXAS INTO MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...AND MISSOURI. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...BUT
DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE TORNADOES ALSO COULD OCCUR.

Low chance as of 4/10/16 at 18Z for Invest 99S in Southern Indian Ocean but if all conditions are favorable,it may be a very strong cyclone if the models are right.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS
PERSISTED NEAR 12.1S 74.7E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 101426Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE INDICATE FLARING CONVECTION AROUND
THE SOUTHWEST AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. LATEST SCATTEROMETRY DATA SHOWS 15 TO 20
KNOT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WITH WEAKER
WINDS TO THE NORTH. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH
GOOD OUTFLOW AND LIGHT TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO SUPPORTIVE AROUND 29
DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. DUE TO THE BROAD CIRCULATION AND RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

Doesn't look very Promising.

up to .24" here according to CoCoRaHS (ca-rv-19)

Quoting 257. PedleyCA:

Doesn't look very Promising.


u get a few sprinkles more yet maybe up to .48
Ped, I don't see rain in your immediate future.

Mid 40s here, but it'll hit low 50s be for the day turns to night.

Patrap, are you mourning the loss of Will Smith who was gunned down in your city last night in a road rage incident? What a tragedy.
Quoting 260. Dakster:

Ped, I don't see rain in your immediate future.

Mid 40s here, but it'll hit low 50s be for the day turns to night.

Patrap, are you mourning the loss of Will Smith who was gunned down in your city last night in a road rage incident? What a tragedy.
Will Smith the actor.?

Quoting 261. hydrus:

Will Smith the actor.?
Football Player..
Quoting 261. hydrus:

Will Smith the actor.?
no saints football player
Quoting 259. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

u get a few sprinkles more yet maybe up to .48
Did I forget to mention. That was a 3 day total. .11 since yesterday. Airport is doing much better than up here.

Quoting #260.Dakster

Ped, I don't see rain in your immediate future.



You would be correct. The forecast is for .01 then nothing till whenever....
A neat hand-drawn surface analysis from NWS Tulsa at 12:30 pm


To find the dryline, follow the yellow brick road... Oops, on the Dorothy reference.

image credit: Oklahoma mesonet
This doesn't look terribly unfavorable for the Cape Verde season. A small patch of below normal waters near Africa, but most of the MDR has above-normal SSTS.

It is...wrong. IT IS WRONG! A mesoscale discussion for TEXAS!



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0348
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR E-CNTRL NM...S PLAINS/SRN PANHANDLE OF TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 101956Z - 102200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WITH PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL CONVECTION FROM NW TO CNTRL
TX...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION ALONG THE
DRYLINE MAY EVOLVE. SHOULD STORMS BE SUSTAINED...SEVERE HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL THREATS.

DISCUSSION...A LEAD MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AIDED IN ELEVATED CONVECTION
FORMING JUST BEFORE NOON AND IS STILL CONTINUING FROM NW TO CNTRL
TX. THIS HAS RESULTED IN BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING BEING SLOWED ACROSS
THE TX S PLAINS. AN INITIAL SURFACE-BASED STORM HAS RECENTLY
COMMENCED ALONG THE DRYLINE IN ROOSEVELT COUNTY NM. BUT WITH
SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION BEING HINDERED IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE
OF THE ELEVATED CONVECTION...IT MAY TAKE ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS OF
INSOLATION BEFORE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS ABLE TO DEVELOP E/SE. STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTHENING DEEP SHEAR WITHIN THE
CLOUD-BEARING LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN
THREAT INITIALLY.

..GRAMS/GOSS.. 04/10/2016


ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 34190300 34710208 35030115 35100028 34849990 34589967
34009962 33180041 32770110 32640179 32740222 33210297
33550328 33860331 34190300

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



It is...wrong. IT IS WRONG! Only a slight chance of thunderstorms...
Quoting 269. 62901IL:

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



It is...wrong. IT IS WRONG! Only a slight chance of thunderstorms...


It's little too cold up there for significant thunderstorm development.
Quoting 270. Sfloridacat5:



It's little too cold up there for significant thunderstorm development.


But earlier today, they were showing high thunderstorm chances!
Quoting 258. PedleyCA:

up to .24" here according to CoCoRaHS (ca-rv-19)



0.94 inches at my PWS this morning. That system's circulation headed down your way, whatever that means for you.
Quoting 271. 62901IL:



But earlier today, they were showing high thunderstorm chances!


I would say thundershowers. You could see some thunderstorms, but I wouldn't expect anything too severe. The CAPE forecast is pretty low in your area.
Quoting 273. Sfloridacat5:



I would say thundershowers. You could see some thunderstorms, but I wouldn't expect anything too severe. The CAPE forecast is pretty low in your area.


All right! Let's see what happens.
Quoting 267. HurricaneFan:

This doesn't look terribly unfavorable for the Cape Verde season. A small patch of below normal waters near Africa, but most of the MDR has above-normal SSTS.




It's actually the opposite of unfavorable
All this means is that (depending if the burmuda/Azores high placement is right) storms won't get going right away and the storms would take a path into the Caribbean and ramp up rather than NE of the Caribbean and across the eastern US seaboard
;)
New ENSO updates coming out this week
From
CPC
BOM
IRI
Also more hurricane season forecast

Quoting 272. oldnewmex:


0.94 inches at my PWS this morning. That system's circulation headed down your way, whatever that means for you.
Got only .24 over 3 days. I hope that circulation holds together and we get a bit more than that. Forecasts don't look promising but will have to see what happens. I'll take anything we can get.
Quoting 276. wunderkidcayman:

New ENSO updates coming out this week
From
CPC
BOM
IRI
Also more hurricane season forecast
Hi Wunderkid! It is going to be an interesting season. Hey, have you ever thought about growing a mustache?
Quoting 275. wunderkidcayman:



It's actually the opposite of unfavorable
All this means is that (depending if the burmuda/Azores high placement is right) storms won't get going right away and the storms would take a path into the Caribbean and ramp up rather than NE of the Caribbean and across the eastern US seaboard
;)
AMO comeback on the CFS?
Models overdoing the negative NAO again, now it barrely goes negative.
Right now the CFS probably has the most favorable Atlantic setup of the three major models. It shows a fairly warm MDR, near-average wind shear and above-normal precipitation. This should get us a slightly above average season, around 130 ACE.
Quoting 282. HurricaneFan:

Right now the CFS probably has the most favorable Atlantic setup of the three major models. It shows a fairly warm MDR, near-average wind shear and above-normal precipitation. This should get us a slightly above average season, around 130 ACE.
Vertical instability will probably be way below average again this season.
2016 atlantic hurricane season is going to be another bust, Donald Trump agrees with me.
Quoting 283. Gearsts:

Vertical instability will probably be way below average again this season.


I'm confident this may change. Right not we are still in an El Nino, and with La Nina as well as a possible strengthening of the AMO, instability will likely increase. It also appears to be trending upward on that graph.
Good evening, folks. Hope everyone had a pleasant weekend. I'm glad to see Cali got some more rain!

Little update on the current contrasts of European weather:


Have a look at this remarkable structure (airmass pic from earlier this evening at 8 pm UTC) of Atlantic low "Ortrun" (name in Germany) which bothered southern Greenland some days ago (after being in born in North America of course) and went southeast since then. It's whirly center looks like a giant pinwheel "eye", no? Here another pic.

The low brought high winds and waves to the Atlantic shores of Europe. Here a report with pics from the UK:


Huge waves bring flooding to South West
BBC, 7 hours ago

Severe Weather Europe has posted this map of temperature anomalies in Europe in the last seven days (from Weather Bell). Huh, very warm especially in the eastern parts:


Surface map for tomorrow:


Low "Ortrun" will advect warm and unstable airmasses to Germany where we might see some thunderstorms the next days. So the quite warm and conducive weather for spring action should continue. Here a pic of the fresh lush green in our woods I took today:


At last a video of Undulatus Asperatus clouds over the highest mountain of Slovenia, Mt. Triglav, on April 7 (please disregard the chemtrail title of this copy on youtube). Photos from Simon Petric of this interesting event are all over European weather blogs (f.e. here):


Quoting 244. Barefootontherocks:

Interesting about that tornado vid...
The two people (wife and a friend) who were downstairs presumably finding the best shelter available were the two that died. The man who filmed the tornado survived.

And...
Be careful of calling others stupid. For one thing, many people have nowhere to go.

If a tornado's gonna get you, it will, unless you have an underground shelter or approved above ground safe room to dive into. Even then... Weather can get you when you do all the right things. Vans full of people who pay big bucks to go stormchasing... Only a matter of time before one of those vans gets caught and fatalies or injuries occur. As we all know, experienced and science-based storm chasers get caught - and die.

Mostly it's a matter of what the tornado does more than what a human does. Humans in a tornado's way sometimes die. They do.

The man might not be stupid, but his actions during the duration of that video were. Standing on the second story of a house recording a large and violent tornado headed right for you while taking no steps whatsoever to protect your life isn't exactly smart. And yes, while it's true that sometimes those that take all the steps don't make it out unscathed while those that do nothing do, that is not at all a line of reasoning to defend what he did. If the man didn't know what to do in the case a tornado headed toward him, that's willful ignorance on his part, especially with him living in a tornado-prone region; and if he did know what to do but chose not to do it anyway, he's insane.
Quoting 238. Tropicsweatherpr:

Plenty of moisture for the Eastern Caribbean and north of the Greater Antilles if the CFSv2 August forecast is right.




Looks as though the CFS has been updated and fixed..
Quoting 267. HurricaneFan:

This doesn't look terribly unfavorable for the Cape Verde season. A small patch of below normal waters near Africa, but most of the MDR has above-normal SSTS.


Rehearsal in western Africa for the wave train has already started IMHO. Further to the south Africa currently emits a lot of moisture according to MIMIC-TPW.
Quoting 288. TropicalAnalystwx13:


The man might not be stupid, but his actions during the duration of that video were. Standing on the second story of a house recording a large and violent tornado headed right for you while taking no steps whatsoever to protect your life isn't exactly smart. And yes, while it's true that sometimes those that take all the steps don't make it out unscathed while those that do nothing do, that is not at all a line of reasoning to defend what he did. If the man didn't know what to do in the case a tornado headed toward him, that's willful ignorance on his part, especially with him living in a tornado-prone region; and if he did know what to do but chose not to do it anyway, he's insane.
Couple things.
If I were that age with an EF4 coming at me I might stand out on my front porch and watch it. My choice. No one else's.

I'd wager you've not been in the path of a violent tornado or been watching one knowing a loved one is. I mean really in the path.

BTW, that supercell in N TX just split.
:)
In northeastern Argentina and adjacent countries the rains just won't stop (typical pattern for El Nino as much as I understand). Pic from earlier today:


Source with loops.

Siguen las lluvias en el Litoral y ya hay mas de 17.000 evacuados
Translation: In the wake of the rains in the region of El Litoral there are already more than 17,000 evacuees. The water does not truce. Chaco, Corrientes, Entre Rios, Santa Fe and Formosa still affected by the overflowing of rivers. Governs a weather alert throughout the region utmost concern. ...

Only recent report in English I could find:
Over 12,000 people evacuated due to floods in Argentina
Fox news Latino, Published April 10, 2016

With this I have to go. Have a nice evening conversation and a good start into bleak Monday, lol.
293. ackee
How do u see the 2016 hurricane season playing out ??

A average season
B slightly above average season
C very active season
D below normal activity

Quoting 293. ackee:

How do u see the 2016 hurricane season playing out ??

A average season
B slightly above average season
C very active season
D below normal activity




B. Slightly above average season.
Quoting 267. HurricaneFan:

This doesn't look terribly unfavorable for the Cape Verde season. A small patch of below normal waters near Africa, but most of the MDR has above-normal SSTS.


Sorry but actually that's an unfavorable pattern at least for the CV activity.
I agree with Cody. Here is some incredible footage of the April 30, 1953 Warner Robins GA tornado, which caused 18 deaths. Including person who filmed this footage. To not take shelter from an approaching tornado is irresponsible. To not get those with you into shelter if any is accessible is evil.

Quoting 293. ackee:

How do u see the 2016 hurricane season playing out ??

A average season
B slightly above average season
C very active season
D below normal activity



B
Quoting 293. ackee:

How do u see the 2016 hurricane season playing out ??

A average season
B slightly above average season
C very active season
D below normal activity




In terms of QUANTITY (named storms, hurricanes, etc), B. In terms of overall DAMAGE/IMPACT, C. Really a matter of subjective perspective there though... If the above-average SSTs in the Gulf Stream can hold up, minimal wind shear/dry air left in the Caribbean to disrupt storms before they make it to the CONUS.
Quoting 293. ackee:

How do u see the 2016 hurricane season playing out ??

A average season
B slightly above average season
C very active season
D below normal activity



B. Slightly Above Average Season.
Quoting 293. ackee:

How do u see the 2016 hurricane season playing out ??

A average season
B slightly above average season
C very active season
D below normal activity




E Lo qué será, será
Been warned since it was born and startin' to get ugly.
Quoting 293. ackee:


B, slightly above average season IMO. Near average season if waters from blob come downward.
Cock-a-roached from Twitter, a prettier picture... at about 7:40 pm cdt.


Same cell several minutes earlier.


Well, you all have a good evening. I need to go find my shoes, just in case I need them to climb up on the roof...
;)
Quoting 275. wunderkidcayman:



It's actually the opposite of unfavorable
All this means is that (depending if the burmuda/Azores high placement is right) storms won't get going right away and the storms would take a path into the Caribbean and ramp up rather than NE of the Caribbean and across the eastern US seaboard
;)


I don't know what to say :o We will see...
Quoting 301. LouisPasteur:



E Lo qué será, será
B
Quoting 289. yankees440:



Looks as though the CFS has been updated and fixed..
Implies not strong subsidence as in recent past years.
Bill Gray in very serious condition one of all time greats of weather forecasting.Prayers for him and his family.
SW Oklahoma has exploded into a supercharged MCS. 100mph winds and the whole line looks menacing. Amazing ramp up of this particular area.
Hopefully, it looks like the line in SW Oklahoma peaked rather quickly. On radar, that was an impressive intensification in a very short time.


College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 1040 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 1039 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 1036 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 1030 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 1025 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING WICHITA KS - KICT 1024 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 1021 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING WICHITA KS - KICT 1018 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 1015 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 1001 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 1000 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 1000 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 952 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 944 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING WICHITA KS - KICT 935 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 935 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 934 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING SPRINGFIELD MO - KSGF 933 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING AMARILLO TX - KAMA 933 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
TORNADO WARNING     NORMAN OK - KOUN 924 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016
(radarscope super res velocity capture removed)
(radarscope super res velocity capture removed)
The Cyosphere Today data looks like the Arctic Sea Ice Peaked again this past weekend and is higher than the previous minimum maximum extent. So 2016 may have lost that record. Though it may have set a late peak record. It's the latest peak I could find in data going back to 1979. Wrote a blog about it. Also in there is some video and more pics from the Space X launch.

Safe night to those in Oklahoma.
This line has now increased in forward speed and size of hail. Very dangerous MCS. Could produce tornadoes. Line SE of Lawton, Oklahoma.
And the weakening has begun of this line. SPC A+ today. That line, though brief has been extreme. Making the enhanced warned area absolutely valid. Was spot on for the enhanced area. Advanced forecasting is amazing.
Well, that was interesting.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0359
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL AND S-CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 82...

VALID 110521Z - 110615Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 82 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SCATTERED SEVERE STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS OF 50-65 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH A BOWING LINE. SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WAKE LOW ON THE NRN END OF THE LINE.

DISCUSSION...0510Z RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BOWING LINE --RECENT HISTORY OF 50-65 MPH WIND GUSTS-- MOVING ENEWD AROUND 65 MPH ACROSS CNTRL AND S-CNTRL OK. OK MESONET OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM A DESCENDING REAR INFLOW JET/WAKE LOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CNTRL OK...WITH A RECENT HISTORY OF GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH WITH THIS FEATURE. ALTHOUGH SOME SLIGHT STABLE STRATIFICATION HAS OCCURRED IN THE LOW LEVELS...FLOW AROUND 50 KT PER KTLX VAD DATA AT 1 KM AGL COUPLED WITH STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AT THE SURFACE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WATCH EXTENSION-IN-AREA MAY BE NEEDED FROM HUGHES COUNTY SWD INTO BRYAN COUNTY OK FOR THE RISK OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

..SMITH.. 04/11/2016
Quoting 293. ackee:

How do u see the 2016 hurricane season playing out ??

A average season
B slightly above average season
C very active season
D below normal activity




B or C
Quoting 317. Skyepony:

The Cyosphere Today data looks like the Arctic Sea Ice Peaked again this past weekend and is higher than the previous minimum maximum extent. So 2016 may have lost that record. Though it may have set a late peak record. It's the latest peak I could find in data going back to 1979. Wrote a blog about it. Also in there is some video and more pics from the Space X launch.

Safe night to those in Oklahoma.

That peak is a glitch. Jaxa and Ijis show decline.
Quoting 293. ackee:

How do u see the 2016 hurricane season playing out ??

A average season
B slightly above average season
C very active season
D below normal activity



B or C, and this time I promise not to be surprised at all by an 870 hPa Caribbean system.
Odisha capital records all-time high temperature of 45.8°C

The Odisha capital today turned into a boiling cauldron by recording an all-time high temperature of 45.8 degree Celsius. ............................... With heat wave conditions in the state, there has been a rise in the number deaths due to sunstroke. According to the office of the special relief commissioner (SRC) it has received 16 reports of deaths allegedly due to sunstroke till date.

Link
06APR2016 27.1 1.3 28.8 1.4 28.9 1.3 29.3 0.9
Quoting 322. cRRKampen:


That peak is a glitch. Jaxa and Ijis show decline.

I should have checked the satellite status, SSMI is having all sorts of issues. Took all that about the Arctic sea ice down.
Quoting 327. Skyepony:


I should have checked the satellite status, SSMI is having all sorts of issues. Took all that about the Arctic sea ice down.

Sorry... I saw the spike today, guessed it just had to be a glitch then found as much described in some comments on Neven's Arctic Sea Ice Blog.

Different thing (or the same actually), that Orisha inferno. Methinx monsoonal Asia is in for an absolutely terrifying two months of brute heat.
Specific gravity of the globe surface not shown for the Greenland /North Atlantic area.This colder heavier mass in play with centrifugal rotational force may have some influence?
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
CPC 4/11/16 update has Nino 3.4 down to 1.3C and that is down from 1.5C that was on last week's update.

CPC Weekly Update
Quoting 242. GreyJewel:


You don't think it's useful to see tornadic effects that close? Researchers can go frame by frame to work out the dynamics of the path and internal structure.


Of course it's useful. From a remote camera in a hardened location where people aren't going to be pureed by a freakin' EF 4 tornado. Not by an idiot with a video camera standing on the second floor of his house.

The storm that brought the tornado didn't just magically appear out of nowhere. The area was under a heightened risk for severe weather, which I'm sure was mentioned on more than one occasion in the preceding days via usual media outlets (radio, TV). Then of course, there was the actual storm watches and warnings which, failing all else, come over the EBS. Assuming that they weren't online, watching TV, or listening to the radio (which is already incredibly stupid to do when you're area is already under threat) there's the fact that he could actually see the storm. He saw the tornado coming, went and got his camera, set it up, and even after that point had time to sit around and wait.

That wasn't science. That was near Darwin Award level stupidity, or at best abysmal ignorance when living in a tornado prone area. It ranks right up there with people who try to drive across flooded roads.